Podcasts about capex

Dan Nathan and Deirdre Bosa, CNBC's Tech Check host, delve into key topics around AI technology and investments. They discuss the growing influence of Chinese open-source AI models and compare US and Chinese AI CapEx spending, drawing on insights from a Bloomberg tweet thread. The conversation highlights China's commoditization strategy in AI and its implications for US-China tech competition. They also scrutinize tech companies like Core Weave, Meta, and AMD, examining their financial strategies, AI ambitions, and market performance. The challenges of power constraints, valuation concerns, and investor sentiment shifts in the AI and tech sectors are thoroughly explored. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.Microsoft is building multiple Fairwaters, each of which has hundreds of thousands of GB200s & GB300s. Between all these interconnected buildings, they'll have over 2 GW of total capacity. Just to give a frame of reference, even a single one of these Fairwater buildings is more powerful than any other AI datacenter that currently exists.Satya then answered a bunch of questions about how Microsoft is preparing for AGI across all layers of the stack.Watch on YouTube; read the transcript.Sponsors* Labelbox produces high-quality data at massive scale, powering any capability you want your model to have. Whether you're building a voice agent, a coding assistant, or a robotics model, Labelbox gets you the exact data you need, fast. Reach out at labelbox.com/dwarkesh* CodeRabbit automatically reviews and summarizes PRs so you can understand changes and catch bugs in half the time. This is helpful whether you're coding solo, collaborating with agents, or leading a full team. To learn how CodeRabbit integrates directly into your workflow, go to coderabbit.aiTo sponsor a future episode, visit dwarkesh.com/advertise.Timestamps(00:00:00) - Tour through Fairwater 2(00:03:20) - Business models for AGI(00:12:48) - Copilot(00:20:02) - Whose margins will expand most?(00:36:17) - MAI(00:47:47) - The hyperscale business(01:02:44) - In-house chip & OpenAI partnership(01:09:35) - The CAPEX explosion(01:15:07) - Will the world trust US companies to lead AI? Get full access to Dwarkesh Podcast at www.dwarkesh.com/subscribe

In this episode of Econ 102, Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg explore AI's effects on productivity, how AI business models will shake out, the US and China's rare earth minerals industries, and China's economic challenges, including demographics, real estate, and involution.-Sponsors:NotionAI meeting notes lives right in Notion, everything you capture, whether that's meetings, podcasts, interviews, conversations, live exactly where you plan, build, and get things done.  Here's an exclusive offer for our listeners. Try one month for free at ⁠https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102⁠NetSuiteMore than 42,000 businesses have already upgraded to NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud financial system bringing accounting, financial management, inventory, HR, into ONE proven platform. Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine learning: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://netsuite.com/102⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Found Found provides small business owners tools to track expenses, calculate taxes, manage cashflow, send invoices and more. Open a Found account for free at https://found.com/econ102-Shownotes brought to you by Notion AI Meeting Notes - try one month for free at https://www.notion.com/lp/econ102⁠AI can affect productivity in multiple ways: replacing humans, enhancing human productivity, creating new tasks, and increasing capital productivityAI may follow other essential industries with low profit margins despite creating enormous value:Like farming, solar power, and airlinesCode-related AI applications are seeing particularly strong adoptionVertical AI applications in specific industries (healthcare, legal, real estate) are gaining tractionChina controls the majority of rare earth mining and refiningThe US has sufficient rare earth deposits but faces two challenges:Regulatory barriers to miningLack of solvent extraction technology and know-howChina's fertility rate is lower than Japan and EuropeHowever, a "baby bulge" (ages 7-22) will support the workforce short-term-Timestamps:00:00 — Intro00:52 — AI's impact on productivity02:27 — Debating whether AI will increase productivity03:11 — Historical analogy: Electricity's impact on productivity, lessons for AI07:55 — Sponsors: Notion | Netsuite09:57 — Application layer companies, AI in coding, vertical AI applications12:49 — AI bubble vs. CapEx boom/bust, historical parallels (railroads, telecoms)16:54 — Brand loyalty, price wars, and profitability in AI models22:26 — US-China trade, rare earths, and supply chain challenges32:20 — Sponsor: Found33:33 — China's demographic and economic challenges, over-competition, and deflation54:06 — Recommendations for China's economic policy, rationalizing the economy-FOLLOW on X:https://x.com/eriktorenberghttps://x.com/Noahpinion-Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares sunk as much as 12% after the opening bell when it posted a guidance cut and more CapEx in earnings. As Diane King Hall notes, the company also marked a delay for one of its data centers. Rigetti Computing (RGTI) narrowed its loss in earnings but slid at the open when valuations came into check for investors. Diane also highlights the entertainment space in Paramount Skydance (PSKY), which pushed strong guidance aided by Paramount+.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Journée historique en Guinée. Ce mardi 11 novembre marquera le lancement de la mine de Simandou, cette immense réserve de deux milliards de tonnes de fer à haute teneur. Une mine dont les Guinéens attendaient l'exploitation depuis trente ans. Bientôt, les deux principaux opérateurs, Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS), un consortium d'entreprises chinoises, et Simfer, une filiale de l'anglo-australienne Rio Tinto associée à la chinoise Chinalco, exporteront 120 millions de tonnes de fer par an, générant des milliards de dollars de revenus pour l'État guinéen. Ce projet lèguera aussi un chemin de fer de plus de 600 km entre le port de Morebaya et la mine dans l'est du pays. Et prévoit la construction, dans un deuxième temps, d'un port en eau profonde et d'une usine de transformation du minerai. Le ministre des Mines Bouna Sylla répond aux questions de RFI. RFI : Ce mardi 11 novembre marque le lancement du projet Simandou. Cela fait presque trente ans que l'on parle de ce projet, qui se concrétise enfin. C'est un jour historique pour la Guinée. Est-ce une satisfaction pour vous ? Bouna Sylla: C'est plus qu'une satisfaction. C'est plutôt le passage du rêve à la réalité pour des millions de Guinéens. Depuis nos pères fondateurs, tous les dirigeants qui se sont succédé ont eu pour objectif de réaliser ce projet. Finalement, c'est grâce au leadership du président de la République, Mamadi Doumbouya, que ce projet voit le jour de manière concrète, avec les infrastructures que vous voyez devant vous. Ce gigantesque projet est le plus gros projet mine-infrastructures dans le monde, avec 20 milliards de dollars d'investissements. Comme vous le dites, ce sera un des plus grands projets miniers du monde. Les entreprises doivent produire et exporter à terme 120 millions de tonnes de fer par an. Cela va générer des revenus considérables pour l'État guinéen à travers des taxes et des impôts. À combien chiffrez-vous ces revenus ? Quand on atteindra les 120 millions de tonnes, ce sera environ deux milliards de dollars de revenus qui seront générés par le projet, sans compter les revenus indirects. Le projet ne sera pas uniquement pour l'exportation du minerai brut, comme on l'a connu par le passé, mais ce minerai sera également transformé sur place pour plus de valeur ajoutée. Les premières années, les entreprises bénéficieront d'exonérations d'impôts relativement importantes. Les dix premières années, Winning Consortium Simandou (WCS) ne payera pas d'impôts sur les sociétés et Simfer bénéficiera d'une exonération de 50 % les huit premières années. Pourquoi ces exonérations aux entreprises ? Dans l'industrie minière, les revenus les plus sûrs sont les royalties, c'est-à-dire les taxes minières. Il n'y a pas d'exonération sur les taxes minières. Dans le cas de Simfer, les impôts sur les sociétés sont remplacés par le pilier deux de l'OCDE pour que, dès les premières années de profits, il y a 15 % de profits qui sont partagés avec l'État. À la fin de la période de l'impôt minimum forfaitaire de l'OCDE, on passera au droit commun qui est de 30 %. Dans combien de temps atteindra-t-on la production de 120 millions de tonnes de fer ? Dans les accords, c'est trois ans. Mais avec l'avance qui a été prise par les partenaires industriels dans la réalisation du projet, nous atteindrons ces 120 millions de tonnes au bout de deux ans. Simandou en phase d'exploitation représente environ combien d'emplois directs et indirects ? En phase de construction, c'est plus de 50 000 emplois. En phase d'exploitation, c'est entre 10 000 et 15 000 emplois directs, sans compter tous les emplois indirects. Quand vous mettez tout ça ensemble, cela sera au moins plus de 20 000 emplois. On est en train de passer de la phase de construction de la mine à la phase d'exploitation. Ces prochains mois, on va vers une perte de 30 000 emplois à peu près. Justement, dans le cadre du comité stratégique du projet Simandou, on a une task force qui s'appelle la « Task force de mobilisation » afin d'éviter que les 50 000 personnes qui travaillent sur ce projet ne se retrouvent pas au chômage. C'est pour cela que nous travaillons pour créer de nouveaux projets dans le cadre du programme Simandou 2040. Dans le secteur minier, on a un projet de raffinerie qu'on a lancé au mois de mars dernier, qui va absorber une partie de ces employés. D'ici à la fin de l'année, on va lancer un nouveau projet de raffinerie de transformation de bauxite en alumine. Tous ces projets que nous allons lancer permettront d'absorber, dans le cadre de la remobilisation des démobilisés du projet, ces 50 000 personnes et leur trouver des perspectives. Ce qui va permettre de réduire la pauvreté dans le pays. Les conventions ont été renégociées en 2022 et 2023 sous le Comité national du rassemblement pour le développement (CNRD). Qu'est-ce qui a changé à la suite de ces renégociations ? Au niveau fiscal, on a amélioré substantiellement les revenus attendus par l'État dans le projet de plus de 20 % par rapport aux conventions initiales. Mais aussi, chose extrêmement importante, les infrastructures telles que renégociées vont faire du transport marchandises, passagers et minerais. Il y aura un train de passagers par jour dans chaque direction et trois trains marchandises par semaine, ce qui permettra d'augmenter encore plus l'impact économique du projet pour l'ensemble du pays. Les conventions ont été renégociées en 2022 et 2023. Une partie des résultats de ces négociations ont été publiés, mais pas tout. Notamment, la convention de codéveloppement, qui crée la Compagnie du Transguinéen (CTG) et qui encadre la gestion des infrastructures du projet, n'a pas été publiée. Certains observateurs estiment que c'est un manque de transparence. Quand est-ce que cette convention sera publiée ? Il faut se rendre compte que c'est un projet complexe. Il entre en production aujourd'hui, mais il y avait quelques documents qui étaient en cours d'ajustement. Après la construction des infrastructures, il faut six mois de mise en service pour s'assurer que l'ensemble de l'infrastructure est robuste. C'est après tout cela que l'on peut entrer dans les questions de publication des documents. On ne va pas publier quelque chose alors qu'on a six mois de mise en service. À la fin de la mise en service, c'est validé par les certificateurs indépendants internationaux qui sont recrutés, qui disent : « Tout est ok. Voici le coût des investissements. Le chemin de fer fonctionne bien, la signalisation fonctionne bien. Les boucles ferroviaires, etc. » C'est à la fin de tout cela que l'on pourra publier. Mais une fois que la mise en service du projet est finalisée, c'est-à-dire pas avant six mois, vers juin 2026. Puisque cette convention, pour l'heure, n'est pas publiée, on a peu de précisions encore sur la CTG qui sera l'opérateur des infrastructures. Quel est le statut de cette entreprise ? Les entreprises minières vont-elles, par exemple, devoir payer une redevance pour utiliser les infrastructures ? Qu'est-ce que va rapporter à l'État guinéen ? C'est une société anonyme, privée, de droit guinéen, qui est propriétaire des infrastructures et qui est opérateur de ces infrastructures pour les 35 prochaines années. Le modèle économique du projet, c'est que les principaux clients de la CTG, ce sont les mines. Les mines vont faire transporter leurs minerais sur le chemin de fer et l'exporter via le port. Ce n'est pas gratuit, ils vont payer des redevances d'utilisation de l'infrastructure. Ce sont ces redevances qui permettent à la CTG de fonctionner, mais également de rembourser les dettes contractées pour le financement de la réalisation de l'infrastructure. Certains responsables guinéens ont affirmé à plusieurs reprises que les entreprises minières construisaient un port en eau profonde pour accueillir les minéraliers, qui sont les bateaux servant à exporter le fer. Pourtant, sur les sites Internet de Simfer et de Winning Consortium Simandou, il est indiqué qu'ils construisent des ports de barges qui, elles, iront en haute mer pour déposer le fer sur des minéraliers. Finalement, quel type de ports aura-t-on pour ce projet ? À la fin de l'atteinte des 120 millions de tonnes, au bout de deux ou trois ans, on va engager les études de faisabilité pour l'extension de la capacité du port, pour passer à un port en eau profonde. Il faut d'abord faire les études de faisabilité qui nous diront combien de temps prendra la construction de l'infrastructure. Les conventions prévoient que les entreprises fassent une étude de faisabilité dans les deux ans, soit pour une aciérie d'une capacité de 500 000 tonnes par an, soit d'une usine de pellets - un produit intermédiaire entre le fer et l'acier - d'une capacité de deux millions de tonnes par an. En Guinée, l'un des problèmes majeurs pour l'industrialisation, c'est le manque d'énergie. Avec quelles solutions énergétiques peut-on construire de telles usines en Guinée ? Déjà, il y a une capacité aujourd'hui hydroélectrique qui permet de fournir de l'énergie à ce projet d'aciérie ou d'usines de pellets de 2 millions de tonnes. Il y a un barrage en construction de 300 mégawatts, qui est à plus de 45 % terminé. Il y a d'autres projets thermiques qui sont également en construction. Il y a une planification énergétique aujourd'hui du pays pour aligner les besoins énergétiques et industriels du pays avec le développement de nouveaux projets. Ce projet Simandou, avec les flux de revenus que cela va générer pour l'État, permettra également d'avoir plus de capacités de financement pour de nouvelles capacités énergétiques. En Guinée, il y a un autre grand gisement de fer, c'est la mine de fer du mont Nimba, qui n'est pas très loin de Simandou d'ailleurs. Ce projet reste bloqué parce que jusque là, les entreprises privilégiaient de faire sortir le minerai par le Liberia qui est plus proche, alors que l'État guinéen privilégiait une sortie par un port guinéen. Aujourd'hui, l'option que vous privilégiez, c'est de faire un raccordement entre le chemin de fer de Simandou et le mont Nimba ? La volonté du gouvernement, c'est de faire une boucle ferroviaire sur l'ensemble du pays. Le gisement du mont Nimba est à 130 kilomètres du chemin de fer de Simandou, ce n'est pas très loin. La question de capacité ne se pose pas, car il y a une capacité disponible sur l'infrastructure ferroviaire. Cela augmente aussi la viabilité du projet de Nimba, du fait de la disponibilité de l'infrastructure du Simandou. Il y a d'autres projets miniers de moindre envergure qui sont aussi en souffrance depuis un moment. Notamment la bauxite à Dabola-Tougué et le fer à Kalia, dans la région de Faranah. Envisagez-vous aussi de faire des raccordement de chemin de fer pour relancer ces projets miniers ? Tout le mérite de ce projet Simandou tel qu'il est pensé, conçu et réalisé, c'est d'être une infrastructure multi utilisateurs. Cela veut dire qu'il y a un droit d'accès des tiers qui sont le long du corridor. Vous avez parlé du projet de bauxite de Dabola-Tougué, du projet de minerai de fer de Kalia, et on vient de parler du mont Nimba. Tous ces projets négocieront des accords d'accès ferroviaire pour pouvoir transporter leurs minerais vers les ports qui se trouvent sur la côte. L'avantage du co-développement, c'est que ça permet d'avoir une infrastructure qui est économiquement viable parce que ça réduit les dépenses d'investissement de capital (Capex) pour tous les investisseurs. Cela permet aussi aux mines de pouvoir transporter leurs minerais à des prix compétitifs et devenir beaucoup plus viables. Le minerai de Kalia, s'il n'y avait pas la disponibilité de cette infrastructure, est difficile à sortir, car il est piégé dans l'arrière-pays. Mais du fait de la disponibilité de cette infrastructure et du droit d'accès qu'elle offre, avec des principes tarifaires extrêmement transparents pour tous les utilisateurs, c'est une chance pour tous les projets qui se trouvent le long du corridor d'être sur le marché. Une chance aussi pour la Guinée d'avoir à réaliser ces infrastructures conformément à cette vision. Sinon, on allait se retrouver avec une infrastructure dédiée uniquement au minerai de fer de Simandou, ce qui n'avait aucun sens. Malheureusement, sur les chantiers, il y a eu un certain nombre d'accidents et de morts. Winning Consortium a déclaré en octobre qu'il y avait eu deux morts chez eux. Nos confrères de Reuters ont publié en mars une enquête dévoilant qu'il y avait eu une dizaine de morts chez Winning Consortium. Au mois d'août, il y a eu un mort chez Rio Tinto. Quel est votre bilan du nombre de morts sur les chantiers ? Je ne commente pas les chiffres, mais ce que je peux vous dire que pour tous ces accidents, on a recruté des firmes indépendantes pour des enquêtes. Les résultats de ces enquêtes vont être révélés. Mais votre bilan, combien y a-t-il eu de morts sur la phase de construction en tout ? Comme je vous ai dit, il y a des enquêtes qui sont en cours. Quelqu'un peut aller au travail et il rentre le soir, il a la malaria, il meurt. On va déterminer si c'est à cause de son travail ou non. C'est pour cela que l'on met en place des enquêtes indépendantes. Il y a des firmes internationales qui ont été recrutées, qui font ces enquêtes dont les résultats seront communiquées ultérieurement. Les questions d'accident et de santé-sécurité pour les travailleurs du secteur minier sont un sujet extrêmement important pour nous. Nous travaillons avec tous les partenaires internationaux afin de prendre des mesures afin que ce type d'accident ne puisse se reproduire. Dans les conventions, il est prévu que 5 % des revenus induits par le projet Simandou aillent dans l'éducation. Pourriez-vous préciser ce projet ? 5 % des revenus de chacune des mines, en termes d'impôts et taxes, que l'État guinéen va percevoir, vont être affectés au financement du système éducatif à l'intérieur du pays. Construire des écoles, des bibliothèques, des enseignants pour augmenter le niveau de l'éducation, le niveau d'alphabétisation. Ensuite 20 % des impôts et taxes que l'État va percevoir provenant de la CTG pour amener aux meilleurs lycéens guinéens, des 33 préfectures du pays pendant les 35 prochaines années, des bourses d'études en France, aux États-Unis, en Chine, au Japon, dans le monde entier pour former les générations futures. L'argent pour les générations futures, c'est l'investissement sur le capital humain. Avec les 5 % de revenus induits par Simandou et les 20 % de la CTG, combien tablez-vous pour le budget de ce programme ? Pas moins de 200 à 300 millions de dollars par an. Il faut préciser que toutes ces bourses seront pour les filières scientifiques et techniques, parce que il faut former plus de gens pour la production que pour la gestion. Ce qui ferait à peu près combien de bourses d'études par an ? Je ne peux pas vous dire aujourd'hui avec certitude combien de personnes on pourrait envoyer, mais c'est des milliers de jeunes qui vont en profiter. À lire aussiGuinée: les autorités inaugurent le mégaprojet minier de Simandou

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain provides an update on the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. After record highs earlier this year, uncertainty has been cut in half, setting the stage for accelerating growth in both CAPEX and Industrial Production. Taylor explains why this shift supports ITR Economics' positive outlook through 2026 and what it means for business leaders preparing for expansion. Are you ready to keep pace with growth?

Futurum's Dan O'Brien joins Morning Movers to discuss the overall tech sector and last week's pullback, saying "it was necessary at some point." He believes investors are trying to make sense of the massive A.I. capex commitments from the hyperscalers. Dan believes "demand outpaces supply" for at least the next several years saying the primary constraint is around the power grid and what will be the energy behind the tech companies. Later, he previews CoreWeave (CRWV) earnings and says its still a "volatile stock" but points to its Nvidia (NVDA) partnership as a key part of the company's operation. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Planning ahead properly for major capital investments faces many barriers, from day-to-day challenges that make it hard to focus on long-term horizons to the shiny new technologies rolled out at trade shows that promise labor savings and soaring profitability.Proper long-term planning needs focused attention, air and space, and the right people in the room from the beginning, Judson Armentrout says. The founder and principal consultant with Building Block Solutions has guided many protein processors through years-long capital investment plans. Judson has worked on both sides of these projects, in production and in retail, and he knows how to take a project into the future, even when that future is unclear.Armentrout provides us with his guidelines on this week's episode of MeatingPod.

This month, Senior Portfolio Manager Rob Thummel covers the latest market shifts:Market Recap: Energy dips while the S&P 500 hits near-record highsPermian Update: U.S. production grows despite weaker oil pricesEnergy Infrastructure: Positioned for long-term demand from AI and LNGAI Capex: Big Tech raises 2025 spending forecasts to $335BUtilities: Growth estimates climb with data center load forecastsPower Buildout: Behind-the-meter energy projects on the riseDownload Transcript

Rick Ducat drops by the Tech Corner with a look at Meta Platforms (META) following the company's recent 3Q earnings report. He looks at how the social media giant and Facebook parent company has evolved into an A.I. behemoth spending billions of dollars on GenAI technologies.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mac Shelton is the co-founder of Sweetbay Capital, a real estate private equity firm focused on value-add multifamily investments in Virginia and the Carolinas. With a background in private equity and mezzanine lending, Mac blends institutional financial experience with a data-driven approach to real estate. Since 2021, he and his team have built a portfolio of over 340 units, concentrating on under-the-radar markets like Roanoke, VA, where rent growth consistently outpaces new supply.     Make sure to download our free guide, 7 Questions Every Passive Investor Should Ask, here.     Key Takeaways Rent growth—not population growth—is the key driver of returns Markets with less outside capital often outperform due to better entry pricing and lower volatility Renovation premiums are often overestimated—test before scaling your plan Conservative exit underwriting should account for the next buyer's view, not just your own Transparency with investors builds trust and fuels long-term partnerships     Topics Why Sweetbay Focuses on Smaller Markets Smaller markets like Roanoke and Columbia are producing higher rent growth with lower acquisition costs Mac compares tertiary markets to places like Raleigh in the early 2000s—under the radar but primed for stable returns Oversupply in "hot" metros like Raleigh and Charlotte is driving rents down, while less popular markets remain steady Data Over Hype: What Drives Rent Growth Rent growth is more important than population growth and is driven by renter population relative to new supply Mac shares an analysis comparing Roanoke to Raleigh, Charlotte, and Greenville—showing similar or better rent performance with lower price per door Why Lease Trade-Outs and Renewals Matter Lease trade-outs measure organic rent growth, but renewals give even clearer insight into demand Renewals at 3–4% growth without renovations are often a better gauge than turnover metrics Exit Assumptions: Thinking Like the Next Buyer Every acquisition includes a re-underwrite from the future buyer's perspective Mac shares how he checks cap rate assumptions against current comps and validates price-per-door benchmarks Transitioning from Private Equity to Real Estate Mac started his career in private equity and gradually began acquiring rentals with his bonus income His first syndication scaled a student rental model he'd already executed personally Investor Communication and Building Trust Sweetbay Capital emphasizes detailed offering memorandums with full fee transparency and CapEx justifications Quarterly reports compare actuals vs original projections—no adjusted budgets or post-hoc explanations Advice for New Syndicators Don't start syndicating without doing your own deals first—prove the model with your money Sweetbay's first deal had no promote, just a 3% acquisition fee, to reduce friction and earn investor trust The best way to grow capital is to return it and reinvest with a strong track record    

Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China's resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he's positioning across equities, credit, and real assets in what he believes could be the start of a long cycle shift away from U.S. dominance.Topics covered:China's accelerating industrial and market recoveryWhy he sees the start of an 8–10 year bull market in ChinaThe “CapEx time bomb” under the Mag 7U.S. vs. international equity performance and valuationsThe rise of fallen angels and how private credit changed high yieldWhy he may soon flip from short to long creditThe end of the stock-bond correlation eraHis “Bushy” portfolio and defensive positioningTrend following, precious metals, and EM local debtEmerging opportunities in Africa and UzbekistanThe global energy complex and long-dated crude exposureShort ideas in fast casual restaurants and the “forgotten 493”How investor sentiment extremes create opportunityTimestamps:00:00 China's transformation and why Rupert's bullish05:00 The Made in China 2025 plan and global dominance07:00 U.S. vs. international equity rotation10:00 The Mag 7's CapEx problem14:00 The “forgotten 493” and passive flow dynamics18:00 Bonds, credit spreads, and what the yield curve says21:00 Private credit, fallen angels, and the next credit setup25:00 The end of risk parity and correlation breakdown27:00 Inside the Bushy portfolio and alternatives30:00 Gold, miners, and precious metals strategy33:00 Frontier and EM opportunities – Africa and Uzbekistan39:00 The Acorns portfolio and global positioning44:00 Energy stocks, refiners, and long-dated crude49:00 The restaurant short thesis and U.S. consumer trends53:00 Where to follow Rupert and Blind Squirrel Macro

John Allen thinks people are missing the potential reversal of corporate tax cuts. He discusses the enormous AI capex from the top four hyperscalers, calling it “astonishing” and saying it makes up “at least 0.5% - 1%” of GDP. He thinks the U.S. is “better positioned than China to win the AI race,” and thinks valuations “could be reasonable.”======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Daniel Lam looks at these three key factors, that investors have been focusing upon in the current US earnings season.

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, Guy Adami and Liz Thomas delve into various market trends and economic indicators. They discuss the OpenAI and Amazon cloud compute agreement, CapEx spending, and the ISM manufacturing index's recent performance. Moreover, they analyze the bond market's reaction to economic data and the Federal Reserve's policies. The conversation also covers the underperformance of Bitcoin, the housing market's challenges, and the gold market's fluctuations. The episode concludes with insights into Warren Buffett's cash holdings at Berkshire Hathaway and a sports commentary on the recent Green Bay Packers game. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode, host Reese Tisdale is joined by Bluefield analyst Megan Bondar to unpack the pressures and opportunities shaping water reuse—a cornerstone of resilient water supply planning that's gaining momentum across the U.S. Bluefield's latest analysis projects US$47.1 billion in CAPEX for municipal reuse infrastructure through 2035, highlighting a shift in how utilities and cities are thinking about long-term water resilience. From California's drought-driven projects to saltwater intrusion along the East Coast, water reuse is expanding. In this conversation, Reese and Megan explore what's driving this growth—and what it means for utilities, communities, and the industries that depend on them. In this episode: What's behind the surge in water reuse investment—and how it reflects a new mindset around resilience. How utilities and policymakers are addressing challenges like cost, permitting, and public perception. Why potable reuse is emerging as a larger share of new capacity additions by 2035. How regional factors—from groundwater depletion in the West to saltwater intrusion in the East—are shaping different approaches. The role of industrial demand, especially from data centers, in accelerating public-private partnerships for reuse. What separates the leaders from the laggards in planning, financing, and executing reuse projects. If you enjoy listening to The Future of Water Podcast, please tell a friend or colleague, and if you haven't already, please click to follow this podcast wherever you listen. If you'd like to be informed of water market news, trends, perspectives and analysis from Bluefield Research, subscribe to Waterline, our weekly newsletter published each Wednesday. Related Research & Analysis: U.S. Municipal Water Reuse: Market Trends and Forecasts, 2025–2035 

The Information's E-comm Reporter Ann Gehan talks with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about Shopify's Q3 earnings and their AI strategy. We also talk with Financial Analysis Columnist Anita Ramaswamy about Uber's growth and Palantir's accelerating US commercial business. OpenAI & Anthropic Reporter Sri Muppidi details Anthropic's new $70B revenue projection and its race to profitability against OpenAI. The Information's CEO Jessica Lessin speaks with BlackRock's Tony Kim about the OpenAI-AWS deal, shifting alliances in AI, and the CapEx boom's effect on big tech valuations. Lastly, we get into how corporations are using AI and its effect on the labor market with Goldman Sachs Senior Global Economist Joseph Briggs.Articles discussed on this episode:https://www.theinformation.com/articles/introducing-informations-50-promising-startups-2025https://www.theinformation.com/articles/information-50s-top-performers-2024https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/shopify-continues-boost-revenue-shares-fall-increased-costshttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-projects-70-billion-revenue-17-billion-cash-flow-2028TITV airs on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Subscribe to: - The Information on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation4080/?sub_confirmation=1- The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agenda

In this episode of the RiskReversal Podcast, hosts Guy Adami and Dan Nathan are joined by Dan Greenhaus, the chief economist and strategist at Solus Alternative Asset Management. Returning since his last appearance in July, Dan shares his consistently accurate market predictions, offering insights into the recent earnings season and the broader economic landscape. The discussion covers the impact of company-specific data versus macroeconomic data, consumer behavior, and the role of the Federal Reserve. They also analyze the AI-driven CapEx boom, its implications for various sectors, and how companies are financing this growth. The conversation culminates in reflections on inflation, politics, and the significant economic challenges and opportunities moving into the next year. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode of Bridge the Gap, BTG Ambassador and FSLA Board Member Damon Thomas, Senior VP of Operations at Providence Senior Living, joins the show. Damon shares practical insights on smooth senior living operations, leadership evolution, and the importance of culture in smaller, regional organizations. From his “daily alignment” meetings to managing the ever-present “top ten” list, Damon reveals how consistency and intentionality build thriving communities. Sponsored by Aline, NIC MAP, Procare HR, Sage, Hamilton CapTel, Service Master, The Bridge Group Construction and Solinity. Become a sponsor of the Bridge the Gap Network.Produced by Solinity Marketing.Connect with BTG on social media:YouTubeInstagramFacebookTwitterLinkedInTikTokMeet the Hosts:Lucas McCurdy, @SeniorLivingFan Owner, The Bridge Group Construction; Senior Living Construction Renovation, CapEx, and Reposition. Joshua Crisp, Founder and CEO, Solinity; Senior Living Development, Management, Marketing and Consulting.

Laurent and Gerard have an explosive conversation with Bryan Long, Executive Director in JPMorgan's Commodities Group.They explore why U.S. energy market signals are failing to support new capacity investments, despite soaring demand (especially from datacenters).  Key issues include misaligned pricing, liquidity constraints, and hedging challenges, all of which deter long-term private capital.Key Takeaways: Current price signals don't support investment in new generation, even as large load growth (e.g., datacenters) is accelerating. Market structures must evolve to better reflect long-term price signals and attract private capital. Supply-side issues: New natural gas peakers and battery storage (BESS) face fragmented development, rising CAPEX, procurement delays, and tariff risks. Industry response: Major consolidation in the IPP space—private equity-backed assets are being acquired by integrated players seeking scale for hyperscaler deals.Possible solutions may include Repricing of forward curves, Government-backed long-term contracts, Regulatory reforms, Technological advancements Bottom line: Something must shift—be it policy, pricing, or tech—to align investment incentives with future demand growth. The next several years should be great for traders in the middle of the action.Conclusion: Between the Large Load Growth and the Investment Capital, who will blink first?   ------------  Bryan Long is an Executive Director in JPMorgan's Commodities Group, focused on wholesale power & renewable energy transactions. With 20yrs+ experience across various U.S. Power trading, origination and management roles, he has deep understandings of electricity market structures.    

The conversation delves into the competitive landscape of cloud computing, focusing on Nvidia's ambitions and the fragmentation of the market with numerous Neo clouds. Jay Goldberg discusses the implications of this fragmentation for Nvidia and its customers, who are increasingly seeking to develop their own custom silicon.

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I look at the shift in enterprise preference from Microsoft to Google Cloud.Highlights00:15 — The three original hyperscalers all released numbers for Q3 last year. Each should be proud, but Google Cloud stood out in a significant way. Its Q3 revenue is up 34% to $15.2 billion. Its Q2 growth had been 32%, so, accelerating here. Mid-year, it said its CapEx would be $75 billion for all of 2025. A few months ago, it said, “Now we're going to have to make it $85 billion..."01:38 — Now it's saying it's going to be somewhere between $91 and $93 billion for this year. If you take the three hyperscalers in their Q3 performance here: $49.1 billion for Microsoft, up 26%, , terrific results. AWS, $33 billion; that was up 20%, so accelerating from Q2's 17.5% — very nice. And then Google Cloud, $15.2 billion, as I mentioned, up 34%.02:39 — AWS and Microsoft are much larger than Google Cloud. Regarding new business Microsoft added $2.4 billion, AWS $2.1 billion, and Google Cloud $1.6 billion. So how does that play out? Well, of the $6.1 billion in incremental new revenue, Q3 over Q2, Microsoft got 39.3%, AWS, 34.4%, and Google Cloud,26.2%. So, for Google Cloud, 15.6% overall, but 26.2% of the new business.03:47 — My point here is that some previous long-range contracts that these companies have been winning have positioned AWS and Microsoft as much larger than Google Cloud; they've earned that. But looking forward here, in the early days of the AI Revolution, Google Cloud is gaining a disproportionate share of new business based on its size relative to AWS and Microsoft.04:44 — But I think the interesting thing here is to say, of the new business and looking forward, who's winning this stuff — sort of right here, right now — forgetting the size disparities that have been up in the past. And Google Cloud, on that front, is looking very good. Visit Cloud Wars for more.

Is the AI boom just a bubble or the start of something bigger? Host Merryn Somerset Webb sits down with Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, to compare artificial intelligence mania with the dot-com era, unpack sky-high valuations and market concentration while exploring what rising competition, power constraints and Capex mean for Nvidia and the “Magnificent Seven.” Arnott shares a pragmatic playbook—fade frothy winners, favor fundamentals (including his RAFI approach) and look to small caps, the UK and emerging markets—plus candid takes on Bitcoin and holding a little gold as insurance.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On this episode of The Six Five Pod, hosts Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman discuss the tech news stories that made headlines this week. The handpicked topics for this week are:   Key Takeaways from NVIDIA GTC and Infrastructure Build-Out: Jensen Huang's keynote delivery. Nvidia's co-architecture approach to power systems, water systems, and manufacturing. Partnerships with Vertiv, Siemens, and GE Vernova for infrastructure development. Key partnership announcements from NVIDIA to build seven supercomputers, competing with AMD's dominance.   OpenAI and Microsoft Partnership Restructuring: Microsoft's $12-13 billion investment for 50/50 partnership structure. Renegotiation allowing OpenAI conversion to a for-profit entity. Microsoft's potential 27% ownership stake valued at approximately $270 billion. Sam Altman's equity position and IPO preparation for a potential trillion-dollar valuation.   Qualcomm's AI Chip Launch: AI 200 and AI 250 announcement driving 20% stock price surge. Strong Wall Street reaction despite limited technical details available. Credible entry into the data center market with scale-up methodology. 2027 timeline for scale-up technologies, including NVLink adoption.   DOE Supercomputer Partnerships: AMD's billion-dollar partnership for two additional supercomputers. Continued dominance in high-performance computing with 64-bit precision. U.S. Secretary of Energy Chris Wright's recent recognition from both NVIDIA's Jensen Huang and AMD's Lisa Su. Highlights of government investments towards winning science across multiple domains.   AWS Anthropic Trainium Partnership: A one-million Trainium chips commitment from Anthropic. Validation of AWS's custom silicon strategy. Recognition that all available chips are selling in the current market. Multi-generation improvement trajectory similar to Google's TPU.   Google Public Sector Event Highlights: Google's military and government sector transformation under Google Cloud CEO, Thomas Kurian. Impressive Gemini for Government agent demonstrations. Seven-minute agent creation showcasing platform capabilities. On-premise GDC deployment with Lockheed Martin for air-gapped AI.   Government Stakes Debate: Discussion of AI, quantum, rare earth minerals, and chip manufacturing.   Federal Reserve Rate Cut: Fed Chairman Powell's extensive data center commentary.   OpenAI Valuation: A trillion-dollar IPO valuation deemed "completely bonkers."   ServiceNow Earnings, Alphabet/Google Earnings, Meta Earnings: Unpacking tech's earnings season.   Microsoft Azure: 40% Azure growth with $400 billion booked business. For a deeper dive into each topic, please click on the links above. Be sure to subscribe to The Six Five Pod so you never miss an episode.

The closeout process is where most projects quietly fail. In this episode ofKP Unpacked, the #1 podcast in AEC, KP Reddy and Nick pull back the curtain on why handovers break, why owners get stuck with the bill, and how to design for decades instead of deadlines. From BIM's broken promise to the CapEx vs OpEx split, this is a hard reset on how AEC should finish work.Highlights1) Documentation and dataBIM vs reality: digital models did not eliminate banker boxes or fragmented handoversDocumentation as asset value: warranties, submittals, service records as the true owner's manualModern handover standard: digitize everything, make it queryable, and keep data portable across owners2) Incentives and ownership structureCapEx vs OpEx: split mindset drives short-term choices that hurt operationsIncentives and warranties: tie first five years of maintenance to designers and contractorsDesign–Build–Operate: operating accountability changes what gets built3) Operations and economicsMaintenance economics: lifecycle costs can exceed build costs and should change design choicesManufacturers and feedback loops: lost warranty visibility and how direct data ties prevent waste4) Process and workflowsDecentralized workflows: hundreds of contributors, no single system, and why forcing one platform fails at closeout5) Owner playbookSet closeout requirements early, enforce data standards in contracts, and involve operations from day one.This is exactly why we launched the Owner Training Series to help owners and owner reps fix what breaks between design, build, and handover. Learn how to manage risk, enforce better closeouts, and align your teams for long-term success.2nd Webinar is on Nov 20th.Enroll now and get the replay of first one → https://kpreddy.co/owner-training-seriesAEC leaders, operators, and innovators, this one matters. Listen now and fix your closeout before it burns value.Sounds like you? Join the waitlist at https://kpreddy.co/Check out one of our Catalyst conversation starters, AEC Needs More High-Agency ThinkersHope to see you there!

In this episode of the Energy Newsbeat Daily Standup - Weekly Recap, Stuart Turley and Michael Tanner break down a whirlwind of critical updates—from Secretary Chris Wright's aggressive timeline on rare earth mineral development to the real story behind ANWR lease openings and the mounting capital challenges in Alaska's frozen frontier. They dive into sanctions, Venezuela's geopolitics, and the myth of energy “transition” vs the reality of energy addition. Plus, insights on TotalEnergies' Anadarko gas deal, Equinor's earnings miss, and why utilities and fossil fuels are still where the real returns lie. Buckle up for the smartest 20 minutes in energy.Subscribe to Our Substack For Daily InsightsWant to Add Oil & Gas To Your Portfolio? Fill Out Our Oil & Gas Portfolio SurveyNeed Power For Your Data Center, Hospital, or Business?Follow Stuart On LinkedIn:https://www.linkedin.com/in/stuturley/ andTwitter: https://twitter.com/STUARTTURLEY16Follow Michael On LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelta... andTwitter: https://twitter.com/mtanner_1Timestamps:00:00 - Intro00:17 - Secretary Chris Wright has a plan for Rare Earth and Critical Minerals – What is the timeline?03:36 - Now that the Alaska ANWR is Open for Lease Sales, Who Will Develop?08:10 - New Oil Sanctions Will Not Stop Russia's War Machine14:08 - We Are in an Energy Addition, Not Transition20:08 - TotalEnergies Bolsters US Gas Presence with 49% Stake in Anadarko Basin Assets22:07 - Lower Oil Prices Hit Equinor's Q3 Profits and They Miss Analysts Estimates24:23 - OutroLinks to articles discussed:Secretary Chris Wright has a plan for Rare Earth and Critical Minerals – What is the timeline?Now that the Alaska ANWR is Open for Lease Sales, Who Will Develop?New Oil Sanctions Will Not Stop Russia's War MachineWe Are in an Energy Addition, Not TransitionTotalEnergies Bolsters US Gas Presence with 49% Stake in Anadarko Basin AssetsLower Oil Prices Hit Equinor's Q3 Profits and They Miss Analysts Estimates

This week, we discuss the Fed meeting, including the end of quantitative tightening and the impact of its balance sheet plans. We also dig into how market structure imbalances and political polarization are reshaping markets, the “financial Hunger Games” of meme-driven trading, rising CapEx from AI megacaps, and the centralization of wealth and power across institutions. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1E5w8fmngVNuC4lyl-PCV5qAPewW_lyKm/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:05) Private-Public Market Divergence (05:08) Fed Meeting Takeaways (11:17) Grayscale Ad (11:56) Market Structure Rabbit Hole (17:26) The Bifurcating Economy (23:01) Fed Balance Sheet Changes (27:40) Impact on Markets (31:27) Grayscale Ad (32:15) High-Yield Earnings & Market Concentration (37:51) BigTech Capex Transition (42:19) The Dystopian AI Future (45:53) Why is Bitcoin Dumping? (48:37) The Market is a Casino (51:28) Realigning Market Incentives (55:06) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Dale Smothers believes AI capex can get “spooky if you ask the right questions,” and calls it the story traders should be focused on. “At what point – and how – do we turn all of this artificial intelligence into profitability?” He posits that the sector might be overvalued because of the difficulty of answering that question. However, he still likes Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), CoreWeave (CRWV) – and Royal Caribbean (RCL).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this Halloween-themed episode, Veronica Breckenridge from First Bite returns to discuss her eye-opening "Industrial Bio-Manufacturing Graveyard Report." Drawing from her experience scaling companies like Apple and Tesla, Veronica reveals why 80% of bio-manufacturing startups fail—and it's not because of bad science. The conversation explores critical mistakes like targeting commodity markets too early, underestimating downstream processing costs, and the "build it and they will come" mentality that has buried promising ventures. Veronica explains why now is actually the best time to invest in bio-manufacturing, citing decreasing costs (3 million times cheaper in 25 years), rising consumer demand for healthier alternatives to petroleum-based products, and increased government support for domestic manufacturing. She shares tactical advice on patient capital structures, the importance of strategic partnerships over going solo, and why bio-manufacturing is more analogous to hardware scaling than pharmaceutical development. The episode offers valuable lessons for founders, investors, and anyone interested in the future of sustainable manufacturing.Grow Everything brings the bioeconomy to life. Hosts Karl Schmieder and Erum Azeez Khan share stories and interview the leaders and influencers changing the world by growing everything. Biology is the oldest technology. And it can be engineered. What are we growing?Learn more at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.messaginglab.com/groweverything⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Chapters:(00:00:00) - Halloween intro and SNL's Snack Homies discussion(00:04:17) - Zombie apocalypse: Could fungi or viruses cause real zombies?(00:09:12) - Beyond Meat stock surge and meme trading(00:11:34) - Introducing the Graveyard Report and Veronica Breckenridge(00:14:23) - Why Veronica moved from Tesla to bio-manufacturing(00:19:45) - The three recurring market fit errors killing startups(00:27:56) - Why targeting commodity markets is a seductive trap(00:35:18) - Downstream processing: The overlooked cost killer(00:42:31) - CapEx overruns and the importance of strategic partnerships(00:48:07) - Patient capital structures for deep tech ventures(00:53:22) - What makes this moment different: Why invest now(00:58:14) - Quick fire questions and closing thoughtsLinks and Resources:First BightThe Industrial Biomanufacturing Graveyard ReportBiowell Biotech AcceleratorGinkgo ConsultingCapgeminiMcKinsey120. Busting Biotech's Bottlenecks: Veronica Breckenridge on the Path to Industrial Scale151. Report on Reports: Cash Flow, Carbon, and the BioeconomyZombie-like effects from fungusBeyond Meat's Stock SpikeTedX BostonTechnoeconomic Analysis Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Topics Covered: industrial biomanufacturing, biotech, business, growth stage, graveyard report, halloweenHave a question or comment? Message us here:Text or Call (804) 505-5553 ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  / ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ / ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ / ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Youtube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ / ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grow Everything⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Email: groweverything@messaginglab.comMusic by: NihiloreProduction by: Amplafy Media

OpenAI vollendet Umstrukturierung mit neuer Ownership-Struktur und $250 Milliarden Azure-Verpflichtung. Sam Altman hält keine direkten Anteile. Microsoft Earnings zeigen OpenAI-Verluste von $11-13 Milliarden pro Quartal durch Equity-Accounting. Amazon überzeugt mit starker AWS-Beschleunigung und $125 Milliarden CapEx-Plan. Google durchbricht $100 Milliarden Quartalsumsatz mit starkem Cloud- und Search-Wachstum trotz ChatGPT. 650 Millionen monatliche Gemini-Nutzer. Meta enttäuscht Investoren trotz Rekordwachstum wegen massiver CapEx ohne Cloud-Geschäft zur Refinanzierung. Apple kündigt zweistelliges Wachstum mit iPhone 17 an. Cloudflare und Reddit überzeugen mit Wachstumsbeschleunigung. Trump Jr. profitiert von Pentagon-Drohnenauftrag an seine Drohnenfirma. Naomi Seibt beantragt US-Asyl wegen angeblicher politischer Verfolgung. Unterstütze unseren Podcast und entdecke die Angebote unserer Werbepartner auf ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠doppelgaenger.io/werbung⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Vielen Dank!  Philipp Glöckler und Philipp Klöckner sprechen heute über: (00:00:00) OpenAI Microsoft Deal und IPO-Pläne (00:13:36) Microsoft Earnings (00:23:32) Amazon Earnings (00:38:46) Google Earnings (00:49:07) Meta Earnings (00:56:53) Apple Earnings (00:58:41) Cloudflare Earnings (01:03:27) Reddit Earnings (01:05:41) Trump Jr. Pentagon-Deal (01:07:55) Binance-Begnadigung (01:09:52) Naomi Seibt US-Asyl (01:16:11) Meta Porno-Vorwürfe Shownotes OpenAI bereitet IPO mit Bewertung von bis zu 1 Billion Dollar vor – reuters.com OpenAI-Umstrukturierung treibt Microsofts Bewertung über $4 Billionen – ft.com Trump Jr.-verbundene Drohnenfirma erhält Pentagon-Vertrag – ft.com Naomi Seibt: AfD-nahe Influencerin beantragt Asyl in den USA – spiegel.de Meta: Pornografie-Downloads für persönlichen Gebrauch, nicht KI-Training – mashable.com

This week on New Wave Weekly:

In an AI push, Amazon has already axed 14,000 jobs and that total is reportedly going to hit 30,000.

Meta just reported Q3 earningsRevenue up +26% Y/Y, engagement accelerating, and yet the stock fell 8%.In this episode of Around the Desk, Sean Emory, Founder & CIO of Avory & Co., breaks down why the market is suddenly questioning Meta's $70B+ AI spending plans, what this means for ROI, and whether we're entering “Metaverse 2.0” territory.We explore: • Why Meta's core business is stronger than ever • How AI infrastructure is driving engagement and ad performance • Why investors are beginning to push back on CAPEX at all costs • The tension between long-term vision and near-term returns • What this shift could mean for broader AI infrastructure players⚡ Clear growth, rising scrutiny: Meta's results mark a turning point in how markets judge AI investment.

Powell says he's remaining data dependent, but he doesn't have the data, says Eric Diton. “He's not comfortable” with the market pricing in further rate cuts right now, he argues. “My guess is that we're going to see continued weakness in the labor market…that's just the new normal.” He notes huge AI capex may be leaving lower income consumers struggling.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Meta Platforms (META) sold off more than 10% after earnings with investors and analysts alike sharing concerns for the company's increased CapEx spending. Marley Kayden takes traders through the list of price target cuts from analysts to highlight the heart of their concerns. Joe Tigay says he's "cautiously pessimistic" on Meta as he offers an example options trade for the Mag 7 stock.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Wealth Management can be a scam. Spoke to a 35-year old paying XX 1.5% a year to manage his $5.5M. If he keeps going until retirement, he'll end up paying $6M in fees and end with ~$14M less than using a Vanguard ETFAI:   I was completely honest. I said I just typed it into AI. if you're not using AI now you're stupid. Gambling:Chauncey Billips arrested!! MarketsFed Rate CutThe latest quarter-point cut will reduce the Fed's benchmark short-term interest rate to between 3.75% and 4%Effects Money Market almost immediately. VMFXX's 7-day yield 4.05% and SPAXX.Juices economy. Less expensive to borrow, so can invest, build etc.. AppleSlow to AI. But will figure it out. iPhone 17 awesome. Meta Earning ResultsRevenue $50b. Record! UCAN 43% (Side note…S&P 500 is international).CapEx $50b YTD vs $24b last year. Double!!!Stock down 11%AmazonUp 10% plus in after-hours. $180b in the quarterI'll never sell: Package everyday. Andy Jasse Memo cultureTeslaTesla Earnings. Record Revenue. $28b.Energy up 44% !!!!Revenue $3.4b and $2.3 cost. $1b in profitUS grid is only 50% productive. Can double with batteries. Other Services up 25%.Elon Remarks. Play at 11.00 Play thur 15.00Leader in Realworld AI. ShockwaveDan Ives:No Drivers in Austin prior to year end. Taking a VERY conservative strategy!Nvidia & PalantirPLAY Jensen Huang on the importance of of Palantir and their ontology stackAlex and Jensen speaking together. Autonomous DrivingNVIDIA Drive SoftwareNEWS: Nvidia today announced it is partnering with Uber to help build the "world's largest Level 4 autonomous fleet, targeting 100,000 Robotaxis starting in 2027.NetflixEarnings LetterEarnings CallHighlights:Talked about personalized ad targeting. THIS IS HUGE!KPop Demon Hunters, which is now our most popular film ever (325M views)Top 10 movies here. Sharing view % growingWhy Netflix?Grown organically. WB and other mergers/acquisitions are a mess: Cultural and bureaucratic. Same core execs: Ted, Greg and David! Perfect mix of creative and Tech. No-one even close in tech. This helps ad money! Revenue and YoY % growth by Region:UCAN: $5.1b17%EMEA:$3.7b18%LatAm: $1.4b10%APAC $1.4b21%~43-45% of Revenue is US

The Information's Erin Woo and Aaron Holmes talk with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about Google and Microsoft's accelerating cloud growth and soaring CapEx spending. We also talk with Theory Ventures' Tomasz Tunguz about Mark Zuckerberg's aggressive AI investment mode and the lack of predictability in ad revenue, and Bloomberg Beta's Roy Bahat about how startups compete with big tech's massive CapEx and why AI will replace 100% of jobs. Then, Shishir Mehrotra and Rahul Vohra discuss Grammarly's rebrand to Superhuman, the launch of their AI assistant, Superhuman Go, and data privacy. The Information's CEO Jessica Lessin speaks with Reporter Natasha Mascarenhas about the WTF Summit takeaways, and with Lucy Guo about why creators are resistant to AI tools. Lastly, we get into Campbell Brown's new AI fact-checking startup, Forum AI, with Natasha Mascarenhas.TITV airs on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Subscribe to: - The Information on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation4080/?sub_confirmation=1- The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agenda

AI isn't just changing software, it's causing the biggest buildout of physical infrastructure in modern history.In this episode, Raghu Raghuram (a16z) speaks with Amin Vahdat, VP and GM of AI and Infrastructure at Google, and Jeetu Patel, President and Chief Product Officer at Cisco, about the unprecedented scale of what's being built — from chips to power grids to global data centers.They discuss the new “AI industrial revolution,” where power, compute, and network are the new scarce resources; how geopolitical competition is shaping chip design and data center placement; and why the next generation of AI infrastructure will demand co-design across hardware, software, and networking.The conversation also covers how enterprises will adapt, why we're still in the earliest phase of this CapEx supercycle, and how AI inference, reinforcement learning, and multi-site computing will transform how systems are built and run. Resources:Follow Raghu on X: https://x.com/RaghuRaghuramFollow Jeetu on X: https://x.com/jpatel41Follow Amin on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/vahdat/ Stay Updated: If you enjoyed this episode, be sure to like, subscribe, and share with your friends!Find a16z on X: https://x.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zListen to the a16z Podcast on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5bC65RDvs3oxnLyqqvkUYXListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/a16z-podcast/id842818711Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenbergPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Stay Updated:Find a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Podcast on SpotifyListen to the a16z Podcast on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today's AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the implications of massive corporate CapEx spending, and where value might ultimately be captured as the cycle plays out.Topics covered:Why big tech's CapEx spending has exploded and how much they're investingThe trillions in revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure spendingHistorical parallels with the railroad and dot-com buildoutsWhy companies that invest heavily often underperformHow the Mag 7 are shifting from asset-light to asset-heavy businessesThe risks of “circular deals” and financial entanglement in AIWhy the AI race resembles a prisoner's dilemmaWhich layers of the AI stack may capture long-term valueHow early adopters and infrastructure players differ in capital intensity and returnsWhere investors might find opportunity beyond the obvious AI namesTimestamps:00:00 Introduction and overview of AI CapEx boom03:00 Why Kai researched AI investment cycles05:00 Scale of big tech's CapEx spending07:00 Revenue needed to justify AI infrastructure08:30 Market concentration and valuation risks11:30 Historical parallels: railroads, internet, and AI14:30 The capital cycle and overinvestment dynamics17:30 “This time is different?” and lessons from bubbles18:00 Factor investing and high-asset-growth underperformance21:00 Sector and firm-level CapEx trends22:30 Winner-take-all dynamics and competitive pressure26:00 How the Mag 7's business model is changing30:00 Comparing tech CapEx to utilities34:00 The circular deal problem and financial risk37:30 The AI arms race as a prisoner's dilemma40:30 Will AI be winner-take-all?43:30 Lessons from the railroad and dot-com eras47:00 Where the value is captured in infrastructure vs adoption48:00 Identifying early AI adopters and hidden beneficiaries50:30 Sector and geographic AI exposure54:00 Capital intensity and valuation differences between infrastructure and adopters

Big Tech will continue to put up big money for A.I. buildout, says Steven Dickens. Even if there's no pickup in CapEx spend from Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), or Alphabet (GOOGL), he expects the spend to remain the same or see little change. As for Alphabet, Steven sees supreme value in the Mag 7 giant's core business and strategic ventures. Tom White offers an example options trade for Alphabet.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Pending home sales came in flat below expectations, though Kevin Green says its still an improvement from the prior print. He adds that an uptick in mortgage applications shows prospective homebuyers are becoming more interested in the housing market. As for the FOMC, Kevin will keep an eye on commentary regarding quantitative tightening and explains that it could give a boost to financial stocks. On today's serving of Mag 7 earnings, he says it will be all about how Microsoft (MSFT), Meta Platforms (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) handle A.I. and CapEx spending.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this solo episode, Axel breaks down one of the most overlooked aspects of multifamily ownership—the timing of your CapEx spending. Many investors wait until systems fail before addressing roofs, heating, or parking lots, but Axel explains why this “defer and react” approach can actually hurt you long-term.He shares why leading with your CapEx, creates a more stable operation and more benefits around it. Axel also discusses why you should consider over-renovating one of your first few units to test what the market will bear and adjust your strategy early on.This episode is packed with practical, experience-driven advice for anyone managing value-add or long-term hold multifamily assets.What You'll Learn in This Episode:Why waiting to spend CapEx until systems fail can backfireThe operational and financial benefits of leading with your CapExHow proactive CapEx planning simplifies long-term cash managementWhy early CapEx investment can subtly boost resident quality and retentionHow to test the market by over-renovating one early unit to gauge demand and pricingAre you looking to invest in real estate, but don't want to deal with the hassle of finding great deals, signing on debt, and managing tenants? Aligned Real Estate Partners provides investment opportunities to passive investors looking for the returns, stability, and tax benefits multifamily real estate offers, but without the work - join our investor club to be notified of future investment opportunities.NH Multifamily Fund III Details:Download The OM For The NH Multifamily Fund IIIAccess The Deal Room For The NH Multifamily Fund IIIConnect with Axel:Follow him on InstagramConnect with him on LinkedinSubscribe to our YouTube channelLearn more about Aligned Real Estate Partners

Cloud costs are high and growing. Some orgs think they're out of control and are trying to limit spend. Some orgs are looking to leave the cloud. A lot of IT spend over the years has been seen as a cost center, with many executives trying to limit the growth or spend, even while they aim for digital transformations of their businesses. Throughout my career, it's been interesting seeing the tension of groups trying to take advantage of technology and the finance departments trying to manage costs. The cloud brings some of the same debates/arguments/concerns to the forefront. Partially because of scale, as we can add cloud resources much quicker than we can with a CapEx purchase. Partially because we've also often lost some control over budgeting with the move to OpEx and subscription things. Read the rest of Reducing Cloud Cost

This week on the podcast, Jackie and Peter begin with a roundup of the latest developments in Canadian energy. They start by discussing Prime Minister Carney's remarks at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia, where he suggested that Canada could export up to 50 million tonnes of LNG per year (about 6.5 Bcf/d) by 2030, with the potential to double that by 2040. They then turn to the upcoming federal budget, which is expected to include details about Canada's Climate Competitiveness Plan. Another key topic is President Trump's decision to suspend trade talks with Canada following controversy over Ontario's free-trade advertisement. Next, the hosts reflect on Peter's recent commentary in The Hub, titled “Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what's next for the oilsands?” Finally, Jackie talks about her recent appearance on a CBC podcast that explored whether Canada can build pipelines while fighting climate change. She explains why she felt the show's coverage was not balanced and shares her broader concerns about how climate and energy topics are often framed in mainstream Canadian media.Content referenced in this podcast: The Globe and Mail, “Carney's climate vision is to deprioritize emissions targets, focus on economic advantages” (October 14, 2025) The Hub “Peter Tertzakian: Even if Alberta gets a new pipeline, what's next for the oilsands?” (October 4, 2025) CAPP Data Centre, “The Economic Impact of Canadian Oil and Gas,” see slide 23 titled “Canada's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by Industry | 2024” Government of Canada Publications, “Public Opinion Research on the National Adaptation Strategy,” (March 2025), see page 6: “A vast majority of people living in Canada (84%) consider climate change an important issue” Angus Reid Institute, “Pipeline Push: Majority of Canadians, including BC Residents support the idea of a pipeline to the north coast” (October 9, 2025) CBC Ideas Podcast “Can we have new pipelines and curb climate change too?” October 7, 2025Please review our disclaimer at: https://www.arcenergyinstitute.com/disclaimer/ Check us out on social media: X (Twitter): @arcenergyinstLinkedIn: @ARC Energy Research Institute Subscribe to ARC Energy Ideas PodcastApple PodcastsAmazon MusicSpotify 

This week, we're sitting down with Kelly Arduino and Brandon Christopherson of Wipfli, a leading accounting and consulting firm, to discuss growth strategies and the latest market updates. Together, they unpack how today's market forces like tariffs, interest rates, and tax reforms are influencing M&A in senior living.Produced by Solinity Marketing.Sponsored by Aline, NIC MAP, Procare HR, Sage, Hamilton CapTel, Service Master, The Bridge Group Construction and Solinity. Apply to become a Bridge the Gap Ambassador.Connect with BTG on social media:YouTubeInstagramFacebookTwitterLinkedInTikTokMeet the Hosts:Lucas McCurdy, @SeniorLivingFan Owner, The Bridge Group Construction; Senior Living Construction Renovation, CapEx, and Reposition. Joshua Crisp, Founder and CEO, Solinity; Senior Living Development, Management, Marketing and Consulting.

This episode features Rob Toews from Radical Ventures and Ari Morcos, Head of Research at Datology AI, reacting to Andrej Karpathy's recent statement that AGI is at least a decade away and that current AI capabilities are "slop." The discussion explores whether we're in an AI bubble, with both guests pushing back on overly bearish narratives while acknowledging legitimate concerns about hype and excessive CapEx spending. They debate the sustainability of AI scaling, examining whether continued progress will come from massive compute increases or from efficiency gains through better data quality, architectural innovations, and post-training techniques like reinforcement learning. The conversation also tackles which companies truly need frontier models versus those that can succeed with slightly-behind-the-curve alternatives, the surprisingly static landscape of AI application categories (coding, healthcare, and legal remain dominant), and emerging opportunities from brain-computer interfaces to more efficient scaling methods. (0:00) Intro(1:04) Debating the AI Bubble(1:50) Over-Hyping AI: Realities and Misconceptions(3:21) Enterprise AI and Data Center Investments(7:46) Consumer Adoption and Monetization Challenges(8:55) AI in Browsers and the Future of Internet Use(14:37) Deepfakes and Ethical Concerns(26:29) AI's Impact on Job Markets and Training(31:38) Google and Anthropic: Strategic Partnerships(34:51) OpenAI's Strategic Deals and Future Prospects(37:12) The Evolution of Vibe Coding(44:35) AI Outside of San Francisco(48:09) Data Moats in AI Startups(50:38) Comparing AI to the Human Brain(56:07) The Role of Physical Infrastructure in AI(56:55) The Potential of Chinese AI Models(1:03:15) Apple's AI Strategy(1:12:35) The Future of AI Applications With your co-hosts: @jacobeffron - Partner at Redpoint, Former PM Flatiron Health @patrickachase - Partner at Redpoint, Former ML Engineer LinkedIn @ericabrescia - Former COO Github, Founder Bitnami (acq'd by VMWare) @jordan_segall - Partner at Redpoint

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Michael Zezas discuss the latest developments in U.S.-China relations and how they could affect investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy. Today, we're talking about the U.S. and China—why the relationship remains complicated, and what it means for markets. It's Tuesday, Oct 21st, at 12:30pm in New York. If you've been following headlines, you know that U.S.-China relations are rarely out of the news. But beneath the surface, the dynamics are more nuanced than the daily soundbytes suggest. Investors often ask: Are we headed for a decoupling of the two economies, or is there room for cooperation? The answer, as always, is—it's complicated. Let's start with the basics. The U.S. and China are deeply intertwined economically, but strategic competition has intensified. Recent years have seen tariffs, export controls, and restrictions on technology transfer. Yet, there's still plenty of trade between the two countries, and both economies are dependent on each other for growth and innovation. So what's going on now? In recent weeks, China has moved to tighten rare earth export controls and the U.S. has proposed 100 percent tariffs in return. If this came to pass, these events could mark a clear economic split. But given the interdependencies we just cited, neither Washington nor Beijing seems eager for a true split, at least not anytime soon. The economic costs would be staggering, and both sides know it. So, a truce seems more likely, perhaps with somewhat different terms than the narrow semis-for-rare earths agreement they made this spring. And longer term, this episode seems to be a part of a broader dynamic, where rolling negotiations and truces are more likely than either a durable trade peace or a hard economic decoupling. For fixed income investors, this drives some important considerations. First, U.S. industrial policy is ramping up, with clear implications for AI infrastructure. AI is an area where the U.S. views it as essential that they outcompete China. Supported by renewed CapEx incentives from the latest tax bill, it's clear to us that U.S. companies will be pushing further into AI development, where my colleagues have identified $2.9 trillion of data center financing needs over the next three years, about half of which will come from various credit markets. And for credit investors, this presents an important opportunity. Another consideration is how markets will balance near-term growth risks with an array of medium term growth possibilities. As our U.S. economics team has pointed out, the evidence suggests that corporates haven't yet been forced to make tough decisions about passing on or absorbing tariff costs, underscoring that trade-related growth pressures aren't yet in the rearview. The ongoing U.S. government shutdown doesn't help either. It's all a good argument for why bond yields could move lower in the near term. But also, we should expect yield curves could steepen more, with higher relative yields in longer maturities. This would reflect greater uncertainties around higher fiscal deficits, inflation, and economic growth. Our economists have been calling out the mixed messages in economic data, as well as a U.S. fiscal sustainability picture that appears reliant on acceleration in corporate CapEx for a manufacturing and AI-driven growth burst. In sum, the U.S.-China relationship is evolving, with global implications that don't lend themselves to easy narratives or quick fixes. Our challenge will continue to be crafting investment strategies that reflect durable policy undercurrents, the signal amid news headline noise. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague.

With Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference underway, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets joins Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur to discuss private credit, M&A activity and AI infrastructure.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan StanleyVishy Tirupattur: And I'm Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist.Andrew Sheets: Today, as we're hosting the Morgan Stanley European Leveraged Finance Conference, a discussion of three of the biggest topics on the minds of credit investors worldwide.It's Thursday, October 16th at 4pm in London.Vishy, it's so great to catch up with you here in London. I know you've been running around the world, quite literally, talking to investors about some of the biggest debates in credit – and that's exactly what we wanted to talk. We're here at Morgan Stanley's European Leveraged Finance Conference. We're talking with investors about the biggest debates, the biggest developments in credit markets, and there are really kind of three topics that stand out.There's what's going on with private credit? What's going on with the merger and acquisition, the M&A cycle? And how are we going to fund all of this AI infrastructure?And so maybe I'll throw the first question to you. We hear a lot about private credit, and so maybe just for the listener who's looking at a lot of different things. First, how do you define it? What are we really talking about when we're talking about private credit?Vishy Tirupattur: So, Andrew, when we talk about private credit, the most common understanding of private credit is lending by non-banks to small and medium sized companies. And we probably will discuss a bit later that this definition is actually expanding much beyond this narrow definition. So, when you think about private credit and spend time understanding what is the credit in private credit, what it boils down to is on average, on a leveraged basis, the credit in private credit is comparable to, say CCC to B - on a coverage basis to the public markets.So, the credits in the private credit market are weaker. But on the other hand, the quality of covenants in these deals is significantly better compared to the public credit markets. So, that's the credit in private credit.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, with that in mind then, what is the concern in this market? Or conversely, where do people see the opportunity?Vishy Tirupattur: So, the concern in this market comes from the opaqueness in these deals. Many of these private credit borrowers are not public filers. So not much is well known about what the underlying details are. But in a sense, a good part of the public markets, whether it's in high yield bonds or in the public, broadly syndicated leveraged loans are also not public filers. So, there is information asymmetry in those markets as well.So, the issue is not the opaqueness of private markets, but opaqueness in credit in general. But that said, when you look at the metrics of leverage, coverage, cash on balance sheet…Andrew Sheets: Because we can get some kind of high-level sense of what is in these portfolios...Vishy Tirupattur: Yeah. And we look at all those metrics, and we look at a wide range of metrics. We don't get to the conclusion that we are at a precipice of some systemic risk exposure in credit. On the other hand, there are idiosyncratic issues. And these idiosyncratic issues have always been there and will remain there. And we would expect that the default rates are sticky around these levels, which are slightly above the long-term average levels, and we expect that to remain.Andrew Sheets: So, you may see more dispersion within these portfolios. These are weaker, more cyclical, more levered companies. But overall, this is not something that we think at the moment is going to interrupt the credit cycle or the broader markets dynamic.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. That is exactly where we come down to.So, Andrew, let me throw another question back at you. There's a lot of talk of growing M&A, growing LBO activity. And that could potentially lead to some challenges on the credit front. How do you look at it?Andrew Sheets: So, I'd like to actually build upon your answer from private credit, right? Because I think a lot of the questions that we're getting from investors are around this question of how far along in this always, kind of, cyclical process; ebb and flow of lending aggressiveness are we? And, you know, this is a cycle that goes back a hundred years – of lenders becoming more conservative and tighter with lending. And then as times get good, they become somewhat looser. And initially that's fine. And then eventually something, something happens.And so, I think we've seen the development of new markets like private credit that have opened up new lending opportunities and then also new questions. And I think we've also seen this question come up around M&A and corporate activity.And as we start to see headlines of very large leveraged buyouts or LBOs, as we start to see more merger and acquisition – M&A – activity coming back; something we've at Morgan Stanley been believers in. Are we really starting to see the things that we saw in the year 2000, or in the year 2007, when you saw very active capital markets actually coinciding with kind of near the peak of equity markets near the top of major market cycles.And in short, we do not think we're there yet. If we look at the actual volumes that we're seeing, we're actually a little bit below average in terms of corporate activity. There's really been a dearth of corporate activity after COVID. We're still catching up. Secondly, the big transactions that we're seeing are still more conservatively structured, which isn't usually what you see right at the end. And so, I think between these two things with still a lot of supportive factors for more corporate activity, we think we have further to go.Vishy Tirupattur: On that point, Andrew, I think if you look at the LBOs that are happening today versus the LBOs that happened in the 2007 era, the equity contribution is dramatically different. You know, equity to debt, these LBOs that are happening today [are] of a substantially higher amount of equity contribution compared to the LBOs we saw pre-Financial Crisis…Andrew Sheets: That's such a great point. And the listener may not know this, but Vishy and I were working together at Morgan Stanley prior to the Financial Crisis, and we were working in credit research when a lot of these LBOs were happening, and…Vishy Tirupattur: And I used to be tall and good looking.Andrew Sheets: (laughs) And they were just very different. We're still not there. If you go back and pull the numbers, you're looking at transactions still that are far more conservative than what we saw then. So, you know, this activity is cyclical, and I think we do have to watch deregulation, right? You saw a lot of regulations come in after the Financial Crisis that led to more conservative lending. If those regulations get rolled back, we could really move back towards more aggressive lending. But we haven't quite seen that yet.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely not.Andrew Sheets: And Vishy, maybe the third question that comes up a lot. We've covered private credit, which is very topical. We've covered kind of corporate aggressiveness. But maybe the icing on the cake. The biggest question is AI – and is AI spending?And it just feels like every day you come into the office and there's another headline on CNBC or Bloomberg about another mega AI funding deal. And the question is, okay, where's all that money going to come from?And maybe some of it comes from these companies themselves. They're very profitable, but credit might have to fill in some of the gaps. And you and some of our colleagues have done a lot of work on this. Where do you think kind of the lending story and the borrowing story fits into this broader AI theme?Vishy Tirupattur: Our estimate of simply data center related CapEx requirements are close to $3 trillion. You add the power required for the data centers and add another $300-400 billion. So, a lot of this CapEx will come from – roughly about half might come from the operating cash flows of the hyperscalers. But the rest, so [$]1.5 trillion plus, has to come through various channels of credit.So, unsecured corporate credit, we think will play a fairly small role in this. Of that [$]1.5 trillion plus, maybe [$]200 billion to come from unsecured credit issuance by these hyperscalers, and perhaps some of the securitized markets, such as ABS and CMBS that rely on stabilized cash flows may be another 1[$]50 billion. But a different version of private credit, what we will call ABF or asset based finance, will play a very big role. So north of [$]800 billion we think will come from that kind of a private credit version of investment grade, or a private credit markets developing. So, this market is very much in the developmental mode.So, one way or the other, for AI to go from where it is today to substantially improving productivity and the earnings of companies that has to go through CapEx; and that CapEx needs to go through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: And I think that is so fascinating because, right Vishy, so much of the spending is still ahead of us. It hasn't even really started, if you look at the numbers.Vishy Tirupattur: Absolutely. We are in the early stages of this CapEx cycle. We should expect to see a lot more CapEx and that CapEx train has to run through credit markets.Andrew Sheets: So, Vishy, there's obviously a lot of history in financial markets of larger CapEx booms, and some of them work out well, and some of them don't. I mean, if you are trying to think about some of the dynamics of this funding for AI and data centers more broadly versus some of these other CapEx cycles that investors might be familiar with. Are there some similar dynamics and some key differences that you try to keep in mind?Vishy Tirupattur: So, in terms of similarities, you know, they're big numbers, whichever way you cut it, these numbers are going to be big dollar numbers.But there are substantial differences between the most recent CapEx boom that we saw towards the end of the late 90s, early 2000s; we saw a massive telecom boom, telecom related CapEx. The big difference is that spending was done by – predominantly by companies that had put debt on their balance sheet. They were already very leveraged. They were just barely investment grade or some below investment grade companies with not much cash on their balance sheet.And you contrast that with today's world, much of this is being done by highly rated companies; the hyperscalers or between, you know, A+ to AAA rated companies, with a lot of cash on their balance sheets and with very little outstanding debt on their part.On top of that, the kind of channels that exist today, you know, data center, ABS and CMBS, asset-based finance, joint venture kind of financing. All of these channels were simply not available back then. And the fact that they all are available today means that this risk of CapEx is actually much more widely distributed.So that makes me feel a lot better about the evolution of this CapEx cycle compared to the most recent one we saw.Andrew Sheets: Private credit, a rise in M&A and a very active funding market for AI. Three big topics that are defining the credit debate today. Vishy, thanks for taking the time to talk.Vishy Tirupattur: Andrew, always fun to hang with youAndrew Sheets: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us review wherever you listen and tell a friend or colleague about us today.