Podcasts about capex

Learn more about Astraeus Wealth Management: http://astraeuswealth.com/partner-with-us Guy Adami and Danny Moses discuss rising global yields and stress points in markets, focusing on Japan's weakening yen, deteriorating bond market, and risks around Japan's role as a major US Treasury holder and potential carry-trade unwind, with BOJ and Fed meetings ahead. They note August's tendency toward volatility and how attention may shift from strong earnings to macro concerns as AI-driven CapEx pressures free cash flow at hyperscalers, raising valuation questions and fears of open-source competition. They preview key earnings including Apple (seen as a defensive AI conduit despite a rich valuation), Microsoft, Meta, and major energy firms, which may post strong results but avoid political blowback. They discuss mixed consumer signals from Capital One, AmEx, and retailers, reiterate a constructive longer-term view on gold tied to Fed policy, and share updates on Moses's podcasts, Substack work, and a veterans charity event. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

A.M. Edition for July 23. Oil futures are rising again today, after Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed attacks on a pair of Saudi tankers in the Red Sea, and as the U.S. surges special-operations forces to the Middle East. Plus, Alphabet and Tesla shares tumble as the big-spending tech giants turn cash-flow negative. WSJ reporters Meghan Brobowsky and Becky Peterson break down the numbers and what to make of Elon Musk's most boring earnings call ever. And the FDA investigates a new outbreak of cyclospora. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

In this Dividend Cafe Thursday episode, Brian Szytel recaps a broad market selloff with stocks and bonds down as the Dow fell nearly 600 points, the S&P 500 dropped 1.5%, and the Nasdaq slid 2.4% while the 10-year yield rose about four basis points to 4.7%. He attributes pressure to escalating Middle East tensions after a Houthi attack in the Red Sea, driving oil sharply higher (WTI up 6% near $92 and Brent up 7% above $100), and to disappointing earnings from bellwether tech names Google and Tesla, with Google showing negative free cash flow amid heavy CapEx. He notes markets are only about 4% off highs, cautions that volatility is normal, questions the usefulness of the Shiller CAPE given decades of “overvaluation,” and highlights very strong weekly jobless claims (187, lowest since 1969), which could raise the odds of a Fed hike. 00:00 Market Wrap Overview 00:52 Oil Shock and Rates Rise 01:27 Earnings Hit Tech Leaders 02:49 Volatility and Drawdown Reality 03:36 Shiller CAPE Debate 04:06 Jobs Data and Fed Outlook 04:54 Sign Off and Disclosures Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In the second part of our economic roundtable, Michael Gapen, Jens Eisenschmidt and Chetan Ahya join Seth Carpenter to discuss how central banks are balancing sticky inflation, resilient growth and regional policy trade-offs.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And once again today, I am joined by Morgan Stanley's chief regional economists: Michael Gapen, the Chief U.S. Economist, Jens Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist, and on the other side of the world, Chetna Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist. Yesterday, we talked about what's supporting growth around the world, especially AI spending in the U.S. and some government spending in Europe, and Asia's role in making all of this happen. Today, we're going to try to dig deeper and go into policy. It's Tuesday, July 21st at 10 am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since the last time we did this in mid-April, I will say the debate around central banks has probably become more complicated. Global growth has held up, probably better than many people expected. And inflation, which picked up a lot, started to recede. But it has not gone away. And some of the forces helping to shape the economy, the AI spending, government spending, that possible upswing in manufacturing, that could keep demand strong, and it might keep pushing inflation higher. So, the question today is, if growth remains resilient, how much room really do central banks have to navigate? Mike, let me start with you because your call for the Fed here in the U.S. is out of consensus, or at least at odds with where the market is pricing things. We talked about the demand going from AI. You pointed out that imports are actually limiting how much domestic demand there is. So, what is the underlying story for inflation in the U.S.? And what does it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: So, our view is that inflation will come down in the U.S. So, we think disinflation will be driven by some payback in energy prices. Some payback from tariffs, which have pushed up goods prices over the last year. And some further diminishment in housing-related inflation, namely shelter. So, we think on a broad-based perspective, inflation has already peaked and will start moving lower. And we think we've seen evidence of this in recent inflation prints. A risk to that, though, is from the demand side of the economy and AI-related inflation in two parts. One, higher software prices, chipflation. So, the pass-through of some of the AI pricing components. Fortunately, here, they're about less than 1 percent of the consumer basket. So, we don't think that there's a great risk, a strong risk, a high risk of AI-related inflation in the consumer bundle. I think the real risk is that maybe we underestimate broad-based demand, animal spirits. And so, you might just see a broad-based increase in inflation from stronger demand. That'll be a little bit harder to see in real times. But our expectation is that inflation moves lower to about 3 percent, by the end of this year and closer to 2.5 percent next year. Seth Carpenter: All right. Thanks, Mike. And in fact, the most recent inflation report that we just got confirms your perspective that inflation should be coming down. And so, I guess the question then remains: What would it take for the Fed to hike this year if inflation has come down like we've seen? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that the answer there is that inflation wouldn't come down in line with our expectations. So, if the view is that energy prices, tariffs, and shelter inflation should provide plenty of offset and bring inflation down, I think the answer is you don't get payback. Explicitly, core goods prices stay elevated. Maybe we get ongoing disruptions in the Middle East that push energy prices higher and create second-round effects. So, I think inflation just lingering at elevated levels could mean the Fed gets brought in to raise rates in September or later this year. We think if they're patient enough, they'll see enough disinflation to keep them on the sidelines. But the risk is disinflation forecast is too optimistic, inflation stays firm, the Fed needs to raise rates. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, what about for you and the ECB? They've already raised interest rates once this year. I think you've got a forecast for them raising interest rates again in September. What could make you wrong about that forecast? What's going to make you convinced that you're right about that forecast? And is there a similar tension that the ECB is wrestling with that Mike talked about for the Fed? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah. I mean, starting with the last part of your question, I think no doubt, very similar tension. Just that, of course, it's less obvious. It's essentially a nuanced European version instead of the loud American version that we always stereotypically think the world looks like. So, essentially, we have here clearly not an AI boom. That, I mean, there's no question. And we have discussed that yesterday. Still, there is certainly the notion that the world demand is not really weak, and some of this will also arrive in Europe. And so, you have that tension between maybe there's more resilience than we had thought, and so inflation will not come down through to slack as much. And so, we might actually add something here in terms of monetary restrictiveness. Now, the other thing that is often forgotten, even though it's blatantly obvious, the starting point is just different. The ECB is running neutral monetary policy by all accounts. I mean, you could say 2 percent is neutral, and now they are 2.25. But, you know, there are ranges of uncertainty around any estimate. And the latest that they published runs – goes from 1.75 to 2;2.5. So basically, even if they were to increase rates to 2.5 in September, you could go with the microphone around the governing council, and you would probably find a lot of people saying, "Well, this is still a neutral policy." That's probably not the case for the U.S. So, I guess this matters here for that debate too. Seth Carpenter: All right. Yesterday we talked about lots of different things, but for Europe, we brought up fiscal policy. How do you think about fiscal policy and how it affects monetary policy? And so, I'm thinking about two channels. One, how much does the ECB care that if they keep pushing up interest rates, they're going to increase the debt service burden for countries that are already facing high debt costs? And second, is fiscal policy going to be the extra impetus for inflation that forces even more rate hikes from the ECB? Jens Eisenschmidt: I guess it depends on who you ask. Certainly, more concerned members in the governing council that would point to exactly that fiscal stimulus as a reason why interest rates have to be increased further from here. The other answer I would give is – probably for now at least, the view on fiscal policy is really model-based. You look at what type of increase in interest rate gets you essentially more fiscal restraint because there's an increase in interest rate bill and so less spending somewhere else. And that gets you basically less stimulus or less growth, I mean, very roughly speaking. I don't think it's a major concern for now. We haven't reached yet interest rates where this would start to play a role. I guess, again, Europe being fragmented as it is, with all the political risk that's around the corner. Think about the elections in France and Italy and Spain next year. That will very likely find itself expressed in spreads. And so, the higher the interest rates are, the larger the spreads could become. Seth Carpenter: So, for each of you, there's clearly a role for inflation. One of the risks we'll talk about maybe is inflation expectations and how maybe there's a big shift in what's going on with inflation. But Chetan, that brings me to you and Asia, because one economy where there unquestionably has been a fundamental shift in inflation and inflation expectation over the past several years is Japan. The Bank of Japan is on this normalization path where they're raising interest rates. Interest rates had been negative and then zero, and now they're gradually raising things up. Inflation has come back to Japan. Markets are looking at what the Bank of Japan is likely to do. Can you tell us a little bit about what our view is for the Bank of Japan this year and next? And what might make them hike interest rates faster than we think? And is there any risk that in fact they hike interest rates slower than we think? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we are expecting BoJ to hike twice from here. The first rate hike is coming up in December of this year, and then another one coming up in June of next year. And then we think that, you know, the underlying inflation trend in Japan is not really that strong. So, while market pricing is for about three more rate hikes instead of two that we are building in our base case. And some of the macro investors are even talking about four more rate hikes. We think the underlying inflation trend warrants a caution and BoJ to go slowly than what the market is pricing in and what the macro investors are saying in. And the key part of our framework on thinking about Japan's inflation is that bulk of the explanation to inflation rise in Japan lies in currency moves. And secondarily, you can look at also the other drivers are more from supply side, which is higher energy prices or food prices. Whereas it's not driven so much by demand. To elaborate further on why it is not driven by demand, when you look at Japan's consumption trend, and if you index it to hundred at pre-COVID levels in September [20]19 then it's currently about 101; i.e., that it's just about 1 percent up over the last seven years. So that's a very tepid trend of consumption demand. And therefore, we don't think that BoJ needs to rush into hike in a more aggressive pace going forward. Seth Carpenter: So, there is this fundamental shift, but boy, it's not on a tear, and so the BoJ can take its time. You know, Chetan, it's hard to wrap up a conversation about the global economy without talking about China. I get the sense that there's not a lot going on with monetary policy, but we did just see a soft Q2 GDP print. So, against that backdrop, what should we be expecting in terms of policy? Is there any monetary policy coming? Or is there going to be some fiscal expansion? Or is China just sort of stuck in this lower gear? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we were also surprised by the soft GDP print. But when you look into the data, actually, it was interestingly doing well on exports. And I mentioned earlier about how the global CapEx trend is helping Asia. It's definitely helping China too. But at the same time, China's domestic demand turned out to be quite weak. And particularly in the areas where we think that the policy response can be providing some help, i.e., infrastructure spend, was also very weak. And therefore, we are expecting that in the back half of the year, you will see the government taking up some fiscal expansion. Not new stimulus announcement, but whatever they had budgeted. They have enough room within that to utilize that budget and actually increase that fiscal spending towards infrastructure. We have about 2 trillion RMB worth of funds available for the government to go ahead and spend in the second half. And then lift that growth trend, which has dipped to 4.3 percent in second quarter to back to 4.6 percent in the back half of the year. Seth Carpenter: You know what? Maybe that's a great place for us to leave it. We've gone around the world again today, but this time focusing much more on policy. In the U.S., the Fed is facing this interesting situation. We think inflation is coming down. The last CPI print went in our favor. And so as a result, our forecast is that the Fed doesn't change policy at all this year. But it's going to come down to the data, and in particular, whether or not Mike and his team are right in terms of where inflation is going. In Europe, the ECB has already raised interest rates once this year. Jens and team are looking for another interest rate hike. The ECB really does seem more sensitive to inflation coming from the energy shock, but there are lots of other crosscurrents that they're paying attention to as well. And then the other major developed market central bank, the Bank of Japan, is on this normalization path. They are in the process of raising interest rates, but Chetan pointed out to us that the growth rate is such that they don't have to be in any sort of hurry, and they can take their time. So, with that, Mike, Jens, Chetan, thank you so much for helping us connect all of these dots. And to the listeners, thank you for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen. And share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

AI investment is reshaping the global outlook. In part one of this economic roundtable, our panel explores where the momentum is strongest — and where investment still needs to catch up.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Chief U.S. Economist. Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist. Jens Eisenschmidt: And I'm Jens Eisenschmidt, Chief Europe Economist. Seth Carpenter: And today is going to be our third quarter economic roundtable taking a wide-angle view on the global economy and all the key forces shaping our outlook and the economy. Seth Carpenter: It's Monday, July 20th at 10am in New York Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 10pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Since our last roundtable in April, the global economy has continued to face all sorts of shocks, a mix of resilience and friction. Inflation pressures have not disappeared. Energy and geopolitical risks have come up, they've receded, they've come back, they've receded all over the place But there is one underlying source of momentum that we have to talk about. And that is the AI-driven CapEx cycle. Michael, let me turn to you because the U.S. is a real focal point of all of this. Tell me a little bit about where Morgan Stanley Research is thinking about hyperscaler CapEx. How big it is? And then for you, when you think about the U.S. economy, just how big of a driver is it for what we're looking for in the U.S.? Michael Gapen: Yeah, we continue to revise higher our estimates for hyperscaler and AI-related CapEx in the U.S. economy. We were thinking a little over a trillion for 2027. Now we're more like 1.2 - 1.3 trillion, maybe as high as 1.4 trillion in 2028. So, the level of hyperscaler spending continues to keep rising. The growth rate and its effect on the economy is likely to slow. But as you noted, it's still a major driver of momentum in the U.S. You would look at that headline number and think, "Wow, that's, you know, 3.5 percent or so of GDP. Must be a massive source of momentum for GDP growth." But roughly about 60 percent of that hyperscaler CapEx spending goes to items like computers and peripherals, equipment spending categories that have a very, very high import content. We still get a significant number that AI CapEx is probably contributing around 40 basis points to growth this year. Be a similar-sized amount perhaps next year.So, for an economy that's growing somewhere a little bit above 2 percent right now, maybe closer to 2.5 percent next year, that's a non-trivial amount. We just have to remember it's fueling growth around the world, just not here in the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Yeah, that's a really great point because I have seen some estimates where people say, "Well, if it wasn't for AI CapEx, the U.S. economy wouldn't have grown at all." And that's clearly wrong, as you point out. But U.S. imports are necessarily exports from somewhere else. And, Chetan, if I can pull you into the story then, U.S. firms are buying a lot of AI-related equipment from Asia. What does that mean in your part of the world? And in particular, I'm thinking about Korea, Taiwan, and maybe some other economies in Asia. What's the critical story there? Chetan Ahya: So, for Asia, this has definitely been a big boon. If you look at Asia's exports, they have been booming, and particularly for the ones which are exporting semiconductors to the U.S. They are seeing semiconductor exports growing by 90 percent. And when we go back in time and compare Asia's semiconductor exports, it's very tightly linked to the U.S. IT CapEx. And it's not surprising when Mike Gapen mentions about the imports going up. It's on the other side, helping Asia's exports quite meaningfully. So, so far, we've seen this benefiting Korea, number one, Taiwan, and also Japan. All these three are big beneficiaries of U.S. AI CapEx. And of course, also not just U.S., but the other countries which are doing any little amount of CapEx on AI front, that's also helping these three economies in the region. Seth Carpenter: You've been doing a lot of work, Chetan, recently about how much the story can actually broaden out, that the AI CapEx cycle has really contributed to Asian growth, but it doesn't tell the whole story that there's a broader industrial cycle. Can you give us a little bit of a flavor of that story? Chetan Ahya: That's right, Seth. So, we are actually highlighting that there is a CapEx and industrial super cycle that is underway in Asia, and there are four components to this story. AI and semiconductors CapEx, which we just briefly discussed. Number two is energy. Number three is defense. And number four is industrial supply chain onshoring related CapEx. I know that everybody still thinks that AI is the most important part of this story, but when I give you the numbers and the breakup of that... So, for Asia, AI and semiconductor companies CapEx is about $380 billion in 2026, but energy CapEx is going to be $900 billion. So, this is a far broader story than just AI for Asia. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me come back to you and to the U.S. then. So, isn't the growth story also broader than that as well domestically? So, what's going on in terms of consumer spending in the U.S., and is there a broader CapEx story in the U.S. as well? Michael Gapen: I would say, is it broader than that? I think maybe you could argue also it's narrower than that. Here's what I mean by that. As I noted AI CapEx contributing about 40 basis points to growth, it's certainly underpinning equity valuations in the U.S. and underpinning strong wealth creation. So about [$]180 trillion in household net worth in the U.S. About [$]55 trillion of that has been created in just the last five years alone, underpinned in part by AI-related spending and optimism about future profitability. That's really supported spending by upper income households. So, I think it's both investment-led and consumer-led, but they're inextricably linked. So, the positive for the U.S. is that it's providing a lot of resilience. The negative component of that is it feels like momentum in the U.S. is narrowly driven. Jens Eisenschmidt: Let me maybe jump in here from Europe to provide some perspective from the other side. So, I think it's a fair summary to say that AI investment is not yet, or maybe will never get there, dominating the business cycle. What we do have instead is an unusually consumption-driven expansion. That has to do not so much with an extraordinary strength of consumption, but more of an absence of other factors. Now, prospectively looking forward, we think the fiscal expansion might help lifting us a little bit. And then it is really the debate how much AI investment can arrive in Europe. For now, I would say it's probably a factor of 20 that separates European investment plans from the plans we know that exist for the U.S. Seth Carpenter: Let me stick with you then in Europe because you brought up fiscal as one of the factors going on here and where it's going… You and your team recently wrote a blue paper talking about what the outlook is for fiscal policy in Europe, and in particular, we had this era of cheap debt. Interest rates in Europe were low, at times negative. It was super easy to borrow. Not as much happened then. There's been a shift towards more fiscal expansion at the same time that interest rates have gone up, causing the cost of debt to go up. Feels like there's a lot of push and pull going on. Can you unpack for us a little bit what was in that paper you wrote, what's going on with fiscal policy in Europe, especially in Germany? And what it might mean over time for Euro-area countries? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, so I think fiscal policy in Europe really is looking at a regime shift. So, there is this very famous, probably in the U.S. even more so than here, notion that the Europeans have built a very comfortable welfare state. And that's true if you just look at the accounting from a GDP perspective. It's close to 50 percent that, you know, budgets are actually extended on welfare spending. And now you have three structural headwinds for any type of fiscal spend. So, one is aging related costs, you mentioned it already. Defense spending has to increase significantly, and the interest rate costs will also rise significantly. All of that means there will be very hard choices to be made. The one thing that actually could help here is growth. Growth is the one thing that's, for now at least, missing, at least in comparison to the U.S. It's probably half what we expect, what the U.S. colleagues think is in stake for the U.S., and a quarter or even less than that of what is there in Asia. So, growth is really the key, the solution, the answer to everything in Europe. More growth than just 1 percent, which is potential, would help solving that fiscal challenge. For now, it looks really, really like an uphill battle. Returning to Germany, it's the one country that has a very good fiscal starting position. They are pushing a lot but they're to some extent pushing a string. So, even with the German huge fiscal package, given that private sector investments so far are absent, doesn't get us a ton of growth. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, maybe I'll come back to you before we close part one of this roundtable. The AI CapEx cycle started with AI, broadened out further. How long do you expect this cycle to last? How durable can it be? And how might it compare to previous CapEx cycles? Chetan Ahya: Yeah, Seth. So, we think this will be a multi-year CapEx cycle. And when we are thinking about the duration of the cycle, there are two things that I would keep in mind. Number one is that most of the drivers that we just discussed – the CapEx on AI, energy, defense, and industrial supply chain onshoring related investments – these are all structural drivers. So, we think these are going to continue for some more time. At this point of time, we have the visibility for this cycle to be lasting for three-four more years. And then the second point of framework that I would keep in mind is that the corporate balance sheets are in a pretty good shape. So, when you are thinking about the leverage in the private sector, you can look at both households and the corporate sector balance sheet. But since the cycle is CapEx driven, we are looking at the corporate balance sheets, and they are in a pretty good shape. Across the region, corporate debt to GDP is below where it was in 2019. Seth Carpenter: Mike, let me, let me wrap up quickly with you. We talked about AI, AI CapEx. For now, that's a very strong demand story. When are we going to see a supply side of things coming from AI? Are you already seeing a big contribution to GDP and growth from productivity coming from AI? Michael Gapen: We are, but not outside of the high-tech sectors, and we're seeing limited, what I'll call labor market restructuring of tasks and occupations beyond high AI-exposed occupations. So right now, everything is still very isolated I think maybe as we get into 2029 and beyond, so as Chetan says, we probably have a three to four-year super cycle here around a build-out phase. Then we might see some of that broader-based diffusion to other non-tech sectors in the economy. Seth Carpenter: All right, Jens, for you, let's wrap up here. So, what is the state of play for the build-out in the CapEx cycle for AI in Europe? Jens Eisenschmidt: Yeah, it's very early stages. As I said before, we really; we connected to all the industry experts or analysts covering the sector and the total plans are a factor of 20 below what we see in the U.S. by just the seven hyperscalers. So, I would say very fragmented, very small, in general. Not only AI. I think the one thing I would be looking at for any type of sign of revival, sign of growth is investment. The second would be investment. And you can guess what the third would be… Investments in the core countries. That's really what we need to see, and we haven't seen much in Germany or France on this front. Seth Carpenter:That's a great place for us to stop today. We talked about the real side of the economy, AI, CapEx, trade. Tomorrow we're going to come back, and we'll talk about how that growth outlook affects inflation. And once you start talking about growth and inflation, you got to talk about policy, and that's where we'll be tomorrow. Mike, Jens, and Chetan, thank you for joining today. And for the listeners, thank you for listening. Be sure to tune in tomorrow for Part 2 of our conversation. And I have to say, if you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen, and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

In this episode, Ben and Jay analyze the latest developments in the semiconductor industry, focusing on TSMC, ASML, Air, and the broader market implications of AI and chip manufacturing advancements. They explore how these trends impact supply chains, CapEx, and future growth prospects.Key Topics:TSMC's CapEx increase and demand signalsASML's capacity expansion and high NA EUV technologyAir's role in semiconductor testing and optical advancementsMarket sentiment and investor rotation in semiconductorsThe impact of AI on chip demand and manufacturing

Brendan Burke discusses the semiconductor space and his expectations for second quarter chip earnings. He talks about the importance of hyperscaler CapEx to the chip trade and says the market can grow at a high level in 2027 with the bottlenecks that are still in place in the market. Brendan also touches on what to watch for in Alphabet's (GOOGL) report.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Increased competition among LLMs and uncertainty about the return on investment on AI capex are all weighing on the market performance on momentum stocks, such as semiconductor firms. Chris Holdsworth, Global Chief Investment Officer, Investec Investment Management, looks at some of the dynamics in global stock markets. Investec Focus Radio SA

‘Monetary policy for us is one of the bigger risks that we see at the moment' – Warren Buhai, senior portfolio manager at STANLIB Asset Management.

Rebecca Walser talks about why she believes markets are selling off tech as Friday's trading session continues that weakness in the sector. She discusses CapEx concerns surrounding hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), while highlighting sectors she sees having strong AI momentum. Rebecca also talks more about her expectations for the earnings season ahead. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Lawrence Boodasingh, MScFM, CFM, FMP, CIWFM, ProFM is Senior Facilities Manager at Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine, an all-accredited (AVMA & AAALAC) 60-acre internationally recognized American veterinary and veterinary research university located on Saint Kitts & Nevis in the north-eastern Caribbean where he is passionate about delivering CAPEX projects and developing diversified high-performing teams, embedding customer-focused cultures, strategic management, stakeholder engagement, and driving innovative FM strategies across complex built environments. Mike Petrusky asks Lawrence about his continuous professional development, upskilling, and credentialing which he believes has been essential for his successful journey in facility and asset management. He says that FM leaders should embrace technology, AI, CMMS platforms, and data-driven decision-making to optimize asset performance and plan for the future. Prioritizing people, customer service, and safe environments is fundamental in the FM profession, so Mike and Lawrence share real world stories and offer inspiration so you can be an Asset Champion in your organization! Connect with Lawrence on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lawrenceboodasingh/ Learn more about Ross University School of Veterinary Medicine: https://veterinary.rossu.edu/ Find out more about IFMA: https://www.ifma.org/ Explore Eptura™: https://eptura.com/ Discover free resources and explore past interviews at: https://eptura.com/discover-more/podcasts/asset-champion/ Connect with Mike on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mikepetrusky/ Watch the full video here: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLSkmmkVFvM4H3pwnlU2AuqynuRDpvnh4J  

Credit markets are stepping in to fund the surging demand for AI. Our experts Lindsay Tyler and Anish Shah explore the opportunities and risks behind this record financing wave.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Lindsay Tyler: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Lindsay Tyler, TMT Credit Research Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Anish Shah: And I'm Anish Shah, Global Head of Debt Capital Markets at Morgan Stanley. Lindsay Tyler: Today, how issuers and investors are approaching the rapidly evolving world of AI financing. It's Thursday, July 16th at 10am in New York. As AI demand accelerates, credit markets are being asked to finance infrastructure on a scale that used to be associated with utilities, telecom, or energy. That raises a central question for issuers and investors: How much debt can the AI ecosystem absorb? And at what price? Anish, can you walk our listeners through the key products in your purview? Anish Shah: Certainly, in my nearly twenty years at Morgan Stanley, this is probably the most incredible time period I've ever seen in the credit markets. I've had the privilege of working across a number of different roles in capital markets and lending. And a couple of years ago, we integrated the debt underwriting business across both investment-grade and leverage finance franchises in recognition of how interconnected the whole credit ecosystem has become. In addition to our core activities helping clients raise capital for their strategic priorities, two of the big focus areas that we've had have been finding ways to harness the power of the private credit universe and also delivering best-in-class capabilities in funding this incredible growth in AI spend. Lindsay Tyler: AI financing has certainly been a theme we've also been focused on in research. Our equity research colleagues project that a handful of key players could add more than 30 gigawatts of capacity over a two-year timeframe, driving around [$]2 trillion of aggregate cash CapEx in that period. And to put that into context, a single gigawatt of data center capacity can require roughly $12 billion for the shell, and then often more than double that for chips and racks. So, from your vantage point, what inning are we in? And what gives you confidence that credit markets can continue funding this opportunity at scale? Anish Shah: I mean, Lindsay, the numbers certainly are staggering, as you note. And if you just observe the CapEx estimates for the hyperscalers and broadly for AI infrastructure, we're certainly in the early innings. Lindsay Tyler: Mm-hmm. Anish Shah: The largest tech companies have historically, as you know, raised very little debt. In fact, many of these companies have not even needed a credit facility. As CapEx projections were materially increased in the second half of last year, we saw the beginning of scaled capital raises. Hyperscaler issuance has quickly gone from less than one percent of the investment-grade market to more than 10 percent of the market. You know, as I look ahead, based on what we're seeing on the ground, we think that AI-related funding, whether it's for data center development or financing compute capacity, could top 15 percent of the total issuance across all credit products. This has been an unprecedented test for the capital markets, both in terms of the depth of capacity and the breadth of product. The teams have been on the forefront of deep investor dialogue and product innovation. This spans corporate investment grade, first of their kind financings in high-yield and leveraged loan markets, and new takes on asset-backed financing. And each of these areas has seen material issuance both in public and private markets. Lindsay Tyler: Great backdrop. Let's dig first into investment-grade corporate debt, an area you know well from your time previously leading the investment-grade team. Can you help frame the scale and the significance of this financing bucket and how AI-related debt is scaling within it? Anish Shah: Well, you know, as you know, the investment-grade bond market, specifically in dollars, is the deepest, most liquid pool of capital in the world. Volumes have grown materially over the last few years and are likely to eclipse $2 trillion in issuance this year. Hyperscalers are among the very best credits in the world, and they have the ability to come in and out of markets with relatively quick twitch, little to no pre-marketing, and in fairly large size. You know, $20 billion-plus deals used to be rare in the investment-grade market, now happen multiple times a quarter. This is why we've seen the predominance of AI-driven capital raising take place in the investment-grade market. For the most part, investors have digested that supply very well. While we've seen some modest widening credit spreads for hyperscalers and some of the other tech issuers, I'd say it's de minimis relative to their expected ROI. Lindsay, I've talked a lot about supply dynamics and issuance. What other factors are you and investors considering when assessing fair value for investment-grade rated technology bonds? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. It's prudent to really weigh a mix of technicals, fundamentals, and relative value. You know, as you discussed on the technical side, and related to my discussions with debt and equity investors, I've been focused on scale of buildouts, market capacity, digestibility across currencies, positioning along the curve, implications of equity issuance, and whether AI financing could crowd out other areas of TMT credit. But moving more to the fundamental side of things, you mentioned ROI, and for the players that are scaling compute capacity, there are a handful of key monetization and return questions that keep coming up. How quickly can these companies bring new capacity online? Once it's live, how does it translate into durable revenue and cash flow? Is that capacity supporting internal products, proprietary models, broader cloud offerings, or compute leased to third parties? And then how fungible is the capacity across those use cases if demand or returns shift? Further on the fundamental side, we've done some differentiated work around growing long-term commitments. We've seen that high-quality hyperscalers and a few of the semis companies are anchoring the AI ecosystem through leases, guarantees, other obligations. These commitments really extend beyond vanilla bond issuance. So, I encourage investors to look beyond the funded debt and really understand the accounting and the ratings implications here of some of those commitments. And this ties nicely into the next topic that I wanted to raise, which is project finance debt. I've noticed that, you know, a lot of the commitments that we're seeing from IG players support another layer of financing. Lease commitments can underpin project finance debt, an area of sizable issuance and innovation. The public high-yield market has emerged as a new funding source in this way for data center construction, with more than 30 billion priced across 15 deals, since fall 2025. Can you walk us through, Anish, the innovation behind these structures, and how are these high yield deals different than other ways to, kind of, raise project finance debt? Anish Shah: Yeah, it's incredibly interesting. I mean, the bulk of the issuance, as I noted has come in the investment grade market, but I would say the bulk of the innovation has come in the sub-investment grade market. You know, historically, for very capital-intensive sectors like energy and power or real estate, the project loan market was the most efficient source of initial funding. The developer would tap banks to underwrite a highly structured construction loan. Once the project is up and running, you could then refinance that loan with the predictable cash flows into a more institutional financing, like the investment grade bond market or the term loan B or securitization markets.That product may still be very viable in many sectors, but we felt early on that bank-provided construction loans would not meet the capacity needs of the AI investment cycle. The market really needed an institutional credit product that bypassed the need for construction loans. The key innovation came in the form of first-of-its-kind high-yield bonds that funded the development of a new data center complex. Given the relatively short construction period and the "offtake" supported by some of the highest quality credits in the world, we felt like this financing structure would be incredibly well-received in the high-yield market. The win here is that the developer accesses fixed rate long-term capital and maintains flexibility to call the bonds and refinance at a lower cost. Judging by how these financings have gone, there's a strong level of investor enthusiasm. I think that they've only scratched the surface, and I would expect that we see much more of this. And potentially even expand it to other products in the leverage finance markets given the tremendous level of investor demand. Lindsay Tyler: Yeah. It's certainly been exciting to follow many of those deals. Beyond the public space, we're also seeing a wave of innovation in private credit and asset-backed finance. Anish, how do companies decide whether capital is best raised in the public or the private markets? Anish Shah: Well, I'm glad you raised the whole avenue of private markets because it may be the most significant change in the credit markets over the last few years, broadening the scope of private credit from directly lending into leverage buyouts to now financing large investment-grade projects. There are great examples in the world of GPU and TPU financing, where we structure loans secured by the asset and the cash flows, or in data center development.Lindsay, from your perspective, what are investors focused on when these private structures intersect with public credits? Lindsay Tyler: Sure. Many of these asset-backed private financings have prompted investors to look more closely at any of the public companies involved, whether as issuers, tenants, customers, or support providers. This ties back to the point I raised earlier. Where does the risk reside, and who ultimately is on the hook? These financings have also sparked broader discussions around circularity, vendor financing, and technology obsolescence risk, even when amortizing structures are in place. I do think those are fair concerns to weigh, and they really speak to how quickly the AI financing trend is evolving and how much credit work there is to do. So, Anish, with that balance in mind, relatively strong demand, rapid innovation, but also some real credit questions, let's end with a quick lightning round. Anish Shah: Lindsay, let's do it. Lindsay Tyler: First, what is the biggest risk that could test investor appetite for AI-related debt? Anish Shah: I would say investors are acutely focused on construction delays. Don't underestimate the level of diligence being done by the breadth of capacity you're seeing in the markets. Investors are doing their homework, and we're spending a lot of time trying to mitigate any of their concerns with structural protections. Lindsay Tyler: Got it. Second, beyond data center shells and chips, what is the next potential AI financing opportunity? Anish Shah: It most certainly is energy and power. We're going to see a ton of capital being raised in utilities. It's going to be a little different than what the hyperscalers are doing, just given the nature of their balance sheets. You're going to see more junior capital. We've seen a wave of junior subordinated debt issuance out of the utilities. We're also seeing a lot of activity from our project finance and tax equity team, just given all things energy infrastructure. Lindsay Tyler: Great. And third, if we're sitting here a year from now, what do you think could be the biggest AI financing story we're talking about? Anish Shah: Well, we certainly underestimated the level of financing activity that we saw in the past year. I think when we look back a year from now, we will probably see that the AI labs were much more ready to finance on their own on a standalone basis. That's going to alleviate some of the pressures in the market, but I think it's going to create a whole new set of considerations and structural innovation. Lindsay Tyler: Well, it's certainly been remarkable to watch this financing theme take shape in real time, and the next chapter sounds like it could be even more interesting to follow. Anish, thanks for joining us and sharing your insights. Anish Shah: Great to join, Lindsay. Thanks. Lindsay Tyler: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Anish Shah is a member of Morgan Stanley's Global Capital Markets Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today! Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold's pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI's CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil's election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer. Timecodes 0:00 - Intro 3:00 - The Fed 8:30 - Energy 16:30 - Gold 23:30 - AI & Jobs 31:30 - Elections & National Debt 41:30 - British Open Picks -- ABOUT THE SHOW For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners. Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34 The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Tom Maher discusses how AI spending is creating opportunities beyond mega-cap tech, benefiting engineering, construction, data center, and power infrastructure companies. He also highlights Ralph Lauren (RL) and YETI Holdings (YETI) as attractive growth opportunities driven by strong brands and market positioning.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

With all the AI weakness rattling Wall Street, Charles Schwab's Joe Mazzola says investors will be watching hyperscaler earnings more than ever. However, he adds that the macro picture is "pretty good" right now, showing that the inflation ascension is slowing and offering reprieve to tech. Kasey McCurdy takes a closer look into hyperscaler CapEx and explains why the Big Tech trade isn't as "binary" as some may expect. He talks about how investors can rebalance their portfolio as tech volatility persists. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I explain why hyperscalers are rewriting the rules of deal-making to build the next generation of AI infrastructure. Highlights 00:01 — We are seeing the beginnings here of an incredible round of innovation, not just in technology, but in deal-making, partnerships, alliances, and financing, all by the hyperscalers trying to meet this insatiable AI demand. We're seeing these companies undertake some very innovative, bold, distinctive new strategies to build the capability and capacity to get these AI data centers built out to meet this insatiable demand. 00:49 — Google Cloud did a joint venture with Blackstone, in which Blackstone invested $5 billion into the joint venture. We have seen Amazon issue a series of debt and bond offerings totaling over $100 billion. AWS has said that in calendar year 2026 it will spend $200 billion on CapEx, most of which is going into AI data centers. Oracle announced $50 billion in debt and equity financing. 01:57 — This funding, this raising of funds to build out the data centers, is because there is, among these hyperscalers, over $2 trillion in committed contracted business. While Oracle right now is the smallest by revenue of the hyperscalers, it has the largest backlog, and in order to meet that, it has to spend a lot of money to build the capacity. 02:46 — Microsoft is using proceeds from its brilliant early relationship with OpenAI to help secure some of the funding. Under a newly restructured agreement between the two companies, Microsoft now will receive 20% of OpenAI revenues for the next few years. Plus, Microsoft has a huge ownership stake in OpenAI. 04:17 — Remarkable things are going on here as the technology buildout by all these companies has helped create this incredible demand. What we're seeing now is extraordinary efforts by the hyperscalers to combine with other companies, move into different industries, and do everything possible — at staggering expense — to meet this insatiable customer demand for AI. Visit Cloud Wars for more.

Hyperscaler capital expenditure is on pace to hit $800 billion in 2026, up from $482 billion just a few quarters ago, and the trajectory points toward $1 trillion by 2027. This is the real driver behind the 2026 semiconductor cycle, especially the strength in memory and optical stocks, and it matters more than any single quarterly earnings beat.We break down why this AI data center buildout is the primary macro force behind the current cycle, why the "rotation out of tech" narrative that surfaced in early July doesn't hold up under scrutiny, and how hyperscaler free cash flow and balance sheet strength can sustain this spending for years. We also look beyond semis to power, grid, and construction names benefiting from the buildout, and what happens to hyperscaler margins if CapEx growth eventually slows.Data and charts referenced in this episode are sourced from fiscal.ai.If you're building a diversified semiconductor and AI infrastructure portfolio, understanding the hyperscaler CapEx cycle is essential to tracking where this cycle goes next.Semi Insider members get access to CSI's research platform, tools, and deeper research as it happens. Join at chipstockinvestor.com. Get 15% off your membership at fiscal.ai/csi.This content is for general information and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute individual investment advice. Forecasts may not develop as predicted, and there is no guarantee any strategy discussed will be successful. All investing involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. CSI owns shares of Amazon, Meta, & Google.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host Ben Emons of FedWatch Advisors to discuss shifting Fed communication under Kevin Warsh, including a push away from strong forward guidance like recent comments from Waller. Emons distinguishes disinflation from deflation, noting a negative month-to-month CPI driven by energy declines but warning energy has already rebounded, making expectations volatile. He highlights “funflation” in categories like recreation and food away from home alongside broad underlying price pressures. The group debates whether AI is inflationary, with Emons pointing to supply-constrained memory prices and AI-related investment as drivers, and discusses IBM's sharp drop after clients shifted CapEx toward servers, storage, and memory. They also cover Middle East Strait closures adding an oil war premium, positioning risks across crude, rates, and equities, yen weakness and potential BOJ action, and heightened volatility and leverage in a “Parabolic Seven” chip/memory cohort that could trigger broader market rotation and tightening financial conditions. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Matt Dmytryszyn talks about what ASML's (ASML) earnings beat means for the greater AI chip trade. He says ASML Holding intends to raise prices for chipmaking equipment, which can impact companies like Applied Materials (AMAT), Lam Research (LRCX), and KLA Corp. (KLAC). Matt also touches on CapEx spending plans and ways the AI memory trade ties into chip manufacturers. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTTClick the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!Danny Moses welcomes Porter Collins and Vincent Daniel back to the On The Tape podcast as Q2 earnings begin amid renewed inflation concerns, Middle East tensions, and continued AI-driven equity enthusiasm. They discuss the Fed being “in a box” between cooling inflation, housing softness, and rising government interest costs, and use Kalshi markets to frame views, including expecting no Fed hike before 2027. The conversation shifts to oil staying elevated due to war-driven disruptions, tight refined-product markets, and high crack spreads amid limited U.S. refining capacity, with mentions of core energy holdings. They cover gold's pullback from 5,500 to around 4,000, the role of central-bank and China buying, and momentum-driven market structure. They debate AI's CapEx cycle, margin benefits versus later unemployment risks, and then examine midterm election implications and Brazil's election odds. The episode ends with Open Championship Kalshi picks and a Substack trial offer.Timecodes0:00 - Intro3:00 - The Fed8:30 - Energy16:30 - Gold23:30 - AI & Jobs31:30 - Elections & National Debt41:30 - British Open Picks--ABOUT THE SHOWFor decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Markets are balancing stronger inflation data against rising energy prices as investors look ahead to key retail sales reports and another wave of Big Tech earnings. Scott Bauer joins the IBKR Podcast to break down the latest Federal Reserve outlook, AI spending, CapEx trends and the market catalysts that could shape the week ahead.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss June CPI falling to 3.5% and core CPI to 2.6% both below expectations with the biggest month-over-month drop since May 2020, Trump proposing a 20% fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo and reinstating the blockade sending WTI to $80 and Brent to $87, Chris Waller's hawkish pivot as Warsh builds Fed credibility, IBM's 19% drop after warning on the quarter as clients reprioritized CapEx toward memory and cybersecurity, HCA's 6% drop on ACA payer mix, Samsung exploring a US ADR listing after SK Hynix's blockbuster $26.5B raise, SLB and Liberty Energy pushing into data center power, improving NFIB and Fastenal readings, and a very strong bank earnings kickoff with BAC investment banking fees up 50%.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Geoff Woo is the co-founder and managing partner of Anti Fund and a co-founder of Ketone-IQ and Archive. In this conversation, we break down choke points and information asymmetry — how smart money hunts for bottlenecks in AI, semiconductors, tungsten, and power. We also cover defense tech, humanoid robots, biohacking, Trump's aura in the Oval Office, and where bitcoin fits into Geoff's portfolio after 13 years of holding.======================Need liquidity without selling your crypto? Take out a Figure Crypto-Backed Loan, allowing you to borrow against your BTC, ETH, or SOL with 12-month terms, 8.91% interest rates, and no prepayment penalties. Or check out Democratized Prime (https://figuremarkets.co/pomp) and earn ~9% APY on real world assets, paid hourly. Unlock your crypto's potential today at Figure! https://figuremarkets.co/pomp Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824). Loans subject to approval. Crypto collateral may be liquidated. Terms apply - see full disclosures at figure.com/disclosures/======================This episode is brought to you by mogul ( https://www.mogul.club/pomp ). Deloitte estimates that $4 trillion of real estate will move onto the blockchain over the next decade. Through tokenized residential real estate, mogul gives investors access to professionally managed properties with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and potential tax benefits — all without the headaches of being a landlord. Learn more and claim a special offer at https://www.mogul.club/pomp See important disclosures at disclaimer.mogul.club.======================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.======================0:00 - Intro1:00 - Why VCs are hunting for choke points in every industry4:45 - Can OpenAI & Anthropic crush every AI startup?13:40 - How Geoff uses AI daily & the tungsten choke point17:43 - Investing across public & private markets25:48 - The memory trade, CapEx & the power/fusion bet33:07 - How top investors like Peter Thiel play every trend at once35:03 - Inside Anti Fund's defense thesis39:50 - AI, robots & the ethics of force45:15 - The Waymo & teenagers story52:18 - Facial recognition & the end of privacy54:44 - Neuralink vs ultrasound brain-computer interfaces57:05 - Biohacking, sleep & the future of longevity1:06:33 - Gambling, hustle culture & internet fame1:22:20 - Geoff's honest take on bitcoin1:26:19 - Where to find Anti Fund

Welcome to another Monday edition of FreightWaves Today! Hosts Craig Fuller and Julie Van de Kamp are back in the studio to break down a massive week for the logistics and transportation sectors. As the market continues its recovery, we tackle the latest geopolitical escalations impacting global shipping routes, preview the start of Q2 earnings season with JB Hunt, and look at how artificial intelligence is transforming truck financing and historical transactional standards like EDI. Featured guests: Tobias Waldeck – Chief Revenue Officer at Daimler Truck Financial Services. Tobias gives his perspective on exiting the longest freight recession on record, normalizing truck replacement cycles, and the booming flatbed activity driven by AI data center infrastructure. Kevin Bangston – CEO of Daimler Truck Finance. Kevin discusses the shifting ecosystem of captive truck financing, navigating final EPA emissions rulings, and utilizing AI for administrative relief and analytic predictability. Mark Vitner – Chief Economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital. Mark shares insights on the strengthening manufacturing sector, GDP growth forecasts for the second half of the year, inventory replenishment cycles, and the unique challenges facing the current housing market. Christopher Versace – Chief Investment Officer & Thematic Strategist at Tematic Research. Christopher analyzes logistics stocks, hyperscaler CapEx spends, chip demand, and why structural shifts in heavy truck orders keep him bullish heading into the Q2 earnings cycle. Erik Kiser – CEO & Founder of Orderful Technologies. Fresh off a $35 million funding round with Koch Disruptive Technologies, Eric highlights how Orderful is utilizing AI models to completely disrupt and automate traditional EDI onboarding experiences. ⁠Follow the FreightWaves Today Podcast⁠ ⁠Other FreightWaves Shows⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A slowdown in Mag 7 CapEx spending will happen, says John Belton, but he doesn't expect it any time soon. One of the biggest beneficiaries he sees: Nvidia (NVDA), which he considers cheap at its current price. John offers his explanation as to why AI chipmaker remains in the center of the tech trade. Tom White turns to an example options trade for Nvidia. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Welcome to another Monday edition of FreightWaves Today! Hosts Craig Fuller and Julie Van de Kamp are back in the studio to break down a massive week for the logistics and transportation sectors. As the market continues its recovery, we tackle the latest geopolitical escalations impacting global shipping routes, preview the start of Q2 earnings season with JB Hunt, and look at how artificial intelligence is transforming truck financing and historical transactional standards like EDI. Featured guests: Tobias Waldeck – Chief Revenue Officer at Daimler Truck Financial Services. Tobias gives his perspective on exiting the longest freight recession on record, normalizing truck replacement cycles, and the booming flatbed activity driven by AI data center infrastructure. Kevin Bangston – CEO of Daimler Truck Finance. Kevin discusses the shifting ecosystem of captive truck financing, navigating final EPA emissions rulings, and utilizing AI for administrative relief and analytic predictability. Mark Vitner – Chief Economist at Piedmont Crescent Capital. Mark shares insights on the strengthening manufacturing sector, GDP growth forecasts for the second half of the year, inventory replenishment cycles, and the unique challenges facing the current housing market. Christopher Versace – Chief Investment Officer & Thematic Strategist at Tematic Research. Christopher analyzes logistics stocks, hyperscaler CapEx spends, chip demand, and why structural shifts in heavy truck orders keep him bullish heading into the Q2 earnings cycle. Erik Kiser – CEO & Founder of Orderful Technologies. Fresh off a $35 million funding round with Koch Disruptive Technologies, Eric highlights how Orderful is utilizing AI models to completely disrupt and automate traditional EDI onboarding experiences. Follow the FreightWaves Today Podcast Other FreightWaves Shows Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

With AI spending in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META) not showing any signs of slowdown, Melissa Otto makes the case that there's much more room for the AI trade to run. One of the biggest beneficiaries she sees from the boom: AMD Inc. (AMD). Melissa expects upward revisions in data center revenue in AMD's earnings early next month. Competition from Nvidia (NVDA) and other chipmakers pose a challenge to AMD, though Melissa isn't too concerned. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Brian Szytel hosts Dividend Cafe on Wednesday, July 8, discussing increased volatility tied to escalating US-Iran tensions after Iran struck oil tankers and the US retaliated against multiple military targets, with oil up about 5% and markets modestly lower but without a clear flight to safety (dollar slightly up, yields up ~3 bps, gold and silver down). He notes rotation dynamics and highlights sector breadth: pharma, household products, and utilities show 100% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, versus tech, semis, and autos below 40%. Economically, wholesale inventories rose 0.1% versus 0.3% expected, while wholesale sales jumped 3.4%, pushing the inventory-to-sales ratio to its lowest since 2012. He addresses Scott Bessent's tariff “success” claim, citing tariff revenues annualizing to about $290B versus $500B–$1T estimates, some net-positive trade deals (Japan, South Korea), little change in the trade deficit, slight GDP drag on consumers, and offsets from fiscal measures and AI-related CapEx expensing. 00:00 Market Volatility Update 00:36 Oil Moves and Safe Havens 01:11 Sector Rotation Signals 01:41 Wholesale Data Snapshot 02:10 Tariffs Success Question 03:09 Trade Deals and Deficit 04:04 Wrap Up and Tomorrow Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The biggest AI stocks have had a remarkable run – but questions still remain. Our Head of Americas Specialty Sales, Thomas Wigg, speaks with Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research Stephen Byrd and Global Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore about the competition and durability of the investment cycle.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Thomas Wigg: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Tom Wigg, Morgan Stanley's Head of Americas Specialty Sales. Stephen Byrd: I'm Stephen Byrd, Morgan Stanley's Global Head of Thematic and Sustainability Research. Ariana Salvatore: And I'm Ariana Salvatore, Morgan Stanley's Head of Public Policy Research. Thomas Wigg: Today, the rally in AI CapEx beneficiaries has taken a breather in recent weeks on concerns of competition from open-source models, backlash to token-maxxing, and growing political opposition to data center builds. It's Tuesday, July 7th at 10am in New York. Let's start with you, Stephen. There's a lot of discussion recently around a backlash at token-maxxing. Essentially, enterprises trying to curtail their high spending on AI tokens from the frontier labs, and, in many cases, shifting to cheaper open-source China models. Can you first offer some perspective here on the value of tokens for enterprises? I know you have a popular token factory model that walks through the economics of agents. Stephen Byrd: Yeah, Tom, we do have this model that really walks through token economics, both from the adopter side as well as the hyperscaler side. So, let's do the adopter side. So, there's a study out that shows a whole range of enterprise use cases of AI, and the average single use case that they identify would save a company about $55 or provide that much benefit. And while we don't know exactly how many tokens it will require, we can make some educated guesses as to a typical token usage to achieve that $55 outcome. And we know that a typical American model, though this varies a lot, you can think of as the cost per million tokens being in the range of $5 per million. Some will be lower, some will be higher. So, for a few dollars of token cost, an enterprise can generate benefit of $55. So that doesn't make me overly concerned about token spend and concerns about token-maxxing. I know we're going to get into that, but the foundation here is really good in the sense that enterprise use cases are very much in the money. Thomas Wigg: How do you think market share ultimately shakes out on tokens? Do the cheaper models overtake the frontier AI labs? Do tokens bifurcate based on the complexity of workloads? How do you think this plays out? Stephen Byrd: What we continue to see is this relentless pace of innovation and cost reduction. So, the frontier keeps going out – meaning model capabilities continue to increase, and, with that, we see enterprise adoption growing quite a bit. Long way to say there is a role for both the frontier as well as these open-source models, and we'll continue to see both flourish. What I see is a lot of tokens will be spent on open-source models. A lot of the value will be in the higher end models because that's where enterprises are going to go. Let me give you an example. I was speaking with one of our programmers about a recent project, and he used a very high-end coding tool, an American coding tool. And for him, that incremental cost of the tokens was very much worth it. And here's a very practical example as to why it makes sense for many enterprises to use the higher end models. If a coding tool gets one of the thousands of lines of code wrong, the cost to remediate is very, very high. In other words, that incremental cost – in this example I'm thinking of, it's a few dollars incremental cost – is so worth it because if the quality is not there, the cost to any enterprise to go back and remediate is so high. And that's true in a lot of enterprise use cases, but not in every use case. And what we are seeing is these open-source models that are cheaper will be very good for a variety of more mundane use cases that are still very valuable. That said, what we've seen in data from places like OpenRouter is dollar-weighted, meaning valued by enterprise spend, the vast majority is still the proprietary models. But even within proprietary models, we could have more expensive and less expensive models. You do not need to go to the frontier. Where I come out on all this is that I'm very confident that the demand for compute is going to exceed the supply. What is difficult to exactly know is who are the winners, what is the exact mix. But the fundamentals of the demand for compute look extremely strong. Thomas Wigg: So, I think you just gave me the answer, but I do want to bring this all back to AI CapEx. Now, last year, when the market sold off on Deep Seek concerns, the concept of Jevons paradox ultimately prevailed, where the cheaper pricing led to even greater demand and CapEx went higher.Do you think the same plays out here? Stephen Byrd: It does look that way very much. And the Jevons paradox dynamic is what we still see today in the sense that as the models get better, what we can do with the models increase, the cost of tokens will keep dropping, the cost of compute will keep dropping.But let's talk about what might derail that, just to make sure we're thinking about all the risks. If somehow commoditized models could perform at the same level as proprietary models in all situations, then I would feel differently. But I don't see that. What I see is that these newer models really do have capabilities that are fairly breathtaking and that are worth that extra money. But if somehow, we hit a wall where these models aren't getting better and therefore the sort of the open models are going to catch up, then I'd feel differently about that. This is where Ariana will, will come in in terms of policy and, you know, this comes up a lot when we think about U.S. versus China. How do we think about, you know, access to different models? How do we think about the cost of different models? What about the risk of appropriation of capabilities by the Chinese firms, for example? That comes up a lot in policy circles. But the base case that I have is this just looks more like Jevons paradox, and there's going to be continued innovation, continued reduction in the cost of producing these services from these models. That looks like more of the same. Thomas Wigg: Let's shift to Ariana to talk about the political angle here. The cover of Barron's over the weekend was a guy wearing a no data centers T-shirt. And this does seem to be one of the few bipartisan issues of agreement heading into the midterms.The stat that the article gave was that 75 data center projects worth $130 billion were blocked or delayed in 1Q26, which is equal to the total number for 2025. This is according to Data Center Watch. Now, most of this is in blue states like New York, Michigan, Illinois, Minnesota considering a statewide moratorium, but you're also seeing Pennsylvania, Arizona, Ohio, parts of Texas restricting tax incentives here. So as this gets louder into the midterms, how do you think this plays out? Ariana Salvatore: So, this is definitely one of the big wedge issues, not just for the midterm elections, but for 2028. And to your point, it's expanding into something that's got bipartisan momentum behind it. Our view is that as long as the Trump administration is in power, something like a federal ban is unlikely to come to fruition. That's because we think the administration is still broadly supportive of the AI data center build-out. And I think even if you were to see a Democrat in office further down the road, that position is the same. And the reason is, it's just too difficult to imagine the U.S. giving up that strategic imperative relative to China. So, while it is true that voters are against AI, while it is true that you are seeing these sorts of local efforts pick up steam, it's also the case that China is accelerating its own AI build-out – not just domestically, but around the rest of the world too. It's also the case that they are kind of tweaking some export restrictions on inputs for some of these data centers, and those geopolitical realities, I think, are hard to ignore. So, at the end of the day, there is a broader strategic imperative here that both Democrats and Republicans kind of recognize and get behind. Now, what does that mean in the near term for the build-out? I think it's not that you're going to see a real pushback or moratorium so much as a conditional build-out.That means you're going to see data centers have to incorporate things like grid modernization in their contracts, agree to longer term investments, for example. Do something that benefits the communities or give it back in some way. And I think that's kind of the policy trajectory in addition to the administration continuing to lean on tech companies to basically, you know, square the circle here and find some way to make this more affordable for, you know, local constituents. Thomas Wigg: Stephen, let me get your take on this too, because I know you live in the D.C. area, and you have a lot of political conversations like you referenced earlier. How do you think this plays out? Is it a red state versus blue state dynamic? And if what Ariana says comes to fruition, where it's a conditional build-out in terms of either giving back to the community or ensuring certain prices or certain technologies behind the meter, in front of the meter, does that have implications for certain areas of the market? Stephen Byrd: Yeah. First, I think Ariana's points were all spot on. I just want to, kind of, build on that and, and dive into it a little more detail. A few things. The politics are, from my perspective, not being the expert that Ariana is, I find them a little strange – in the sense that at the federal level, we have one dynamic, and at the state and local level, we have a bit of a different dynamic. And what I mean by that is, at the federal level, I think it's becoming increasingly clear just how geopolitically important AI supremacy is. As these models get more capable, I think it's pretty clear that the Trump administration really sees just how potent these tools are from a geopolitical point of view. So that points in the direction of wanting to support AI and wanting to ensure that the United States has a leading and dominant position in terms of AI capabilities. Pause there, and then go to your point about, sort of, the local and state level. Building on what Ariana said, what I see are basically two approaches to data center development. In states where the utility is vertically integrated, meaning they control everything, like Louisiana, I do see a path where – in those kinds of states where the politics are a bit more favorable – you could develop a data center connected to the grid, where the data center developer is paying full freight and then some. Meaning that they are providing back to the community, they're providing sort of net benefits, and there should be plenty of capital to make that work and really support all constituents. That can work – in a state where the politics work – because utilities are really weather vanes from a political point of view. So, if their state supports data center development, they will more likely support a data center development. The other approach, though, in many states, whether it's deregulated or it's in a state where the politics are a little less favorable. Which, to your point on the cover of Barron's, it's a lot of states, what I'm increasingly seeing is that the developers are going to go off grid. And they just don't want to show any impact to the community that could be considered negative. So, no use of water, no use of power, and hopefully have a, you know, low or zero emissions profile to show no impact at all. Even then, you want to give back to the community. But the view there is, look, we want to sidestep all of these concerns that we might be causing impacts to the grid by just not being connected. So, I think we're going to see a whole lot of off-grid data center projects. That's mostly natural gas turbines and fuel cells, that general approach. Energy storage will be required in a big way. That's not easy to do. So, in the context of delays there, the Bitcoin players who do have grid access today are clearly seeing a lot of demand for their products. So, I would say politics is now a huge issue that's showing up. The other thing I'd flag is often local communities and states are rejecting projects and using permit requests as a way to do that. So, for example, if your data center needs an air permit because your turbines are going to emit some kind of an, you know, sulfur dioxide, et cetera, into the air, you can run into trouble there. If your data center requires water and you need a water permit, you can run into trouble. So, that's causing these developers to try to find approaches that really minimize or eliminate the need for those kinds of permits. Thomas Wigg: Stephen and Ariana, thank you for taking the time. And to our audience, thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.*****Tom Wigg is a member of Morgan Stanley's Institutional Equity Division and is not a member of Morgan Stanley's Research Department. Unless otherwise indicated, his views are his own and may differ from the views of the Morgan Stanley Research Department and from the views of others within Morgan Stanley.

Episode 800 brings the show full circle. Tryfon Christoforou was the very first guest on this podcast, back when it was still Target Market Insights and his brokerage was little more than himself, his partner, and one other agent. Today 3CRE runs 42 agents and brokers, and Tryfon returns to break down how he reads the Cincinnati market, how investors can identify strong markets and submarkets anywhere, and how to build and scale a team that performs in any economy.   Make sure to download our free guide, 7 Questions Every Passive Investor Should Ask, here.     Key Takeaways Diversify across asset types so a soft class does not stall your business Let national retailers do the market research, then follow where they build Invest in landlord-friendly states with employment spread across many companies Underwrite conservatively, because cheap debt no longer hides mistakes Hire people who add value, then stay humble enough to let them lead     Topics Returning to the Show and Building 3CRE Tryfon co-founded the partnership with Mike Costantini 14 years ago and went fully independent a decade ago The firm now spans multifamily, retail, office, industrial, business brokering, asset management, residential, and capital markets The team has grown to 42 agents and brokers Why Cincinnati Still Offers Value Prices have doubled or tripled in 14 years but remain well below coastal and Sun Belt markets Newer product rents at roughly $1.50 to $2 per square foot, versus $3 to $4 in cities like Austin and Nashville A white-collar base including Procter & Gamble, GE Aviation, Fifth Third, and Great American supports steady housing demand Submarkets Worth Watching The Norwood and Montgomery Road corridor stays his top pick, with development running from Hyde Park to Oakley to Pleasant Ridge Eastern suburbs such as Loveland, Milford, and Clermont County are drawing new development, partly behind a new Purina plant National retailers like Wawa opening in Silverton signal where growth is heading Reading Any Market From a Distance Track population and household income trends, since falling demographics eventually pull prices down Favor landlord-friendly states with faster, cleaner eviction processes Prefer economies supported by many employers rather than one or two A Harder Market for Operators and Brokers Cheap COVID-era debt let weak underwriting still cash flow, and that cushion is gone Larger multifamily is slow to trade while 10 to 20 unit deals are moving quickly Lenders have turned risk-averse, and some banks have paused commercial lending entirely Why Diversification Wins Specialists in each asset type let the firm follow demand as trends shift New development increasingly blends multifamily with retail and office to spread risk Investors are treating real estate like a diversified portfolio rather than a single bet    

Brett Suma, President and COO of Bot Auto, joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss Bot Auto's playbook for autonomously driving one billion autonomous miles in four years.On April 29th by completing its first humanless run from Houston to Dallas. To achieve long-term growth and commercial success, Bot Auto is rejecting the standard driver-as-a-service intermediary model used by its competitors. Instead, the company is building direct relationships with shippers and designing a utility grid of capacity focused on solving network sequencing, lane selection, and utilization.As the company focuses on capital-efficient deployment, Bot Auto plans to sidestep raising large funding rounds to purchase depreciating operations assets. Instead, the company will rely on traditional financing methods, established banking relationships, and an experienced sales force to scale its tractor and trailer counts. With a comprehensive five-year financial roadmap in place, Bot Auto is positioning itself to scale organically based on market demand, setting a disciplined target of one billion autonomous miles within the next four years.Episode Chapters0:00 Why Bot Auto4:56 April 29th Humanless Houston to Dallas Run9:52 Economics of Humanless Miles14:36 Building a Trucking Business17:17 Capacity as a Utility Grid, Not Truck Counts24:19 Bot Auto's Business Model29:34 CapEx and Financing Trucks32:15 Hidden Risk of Operating a Mixed Fleet41:49 Staying Disciplined as Bot Auto Grows44:24 One Billion Autonomous Miles in Four Years47:36 AUTNMY AI--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.Through our podcasts, newsletter, Indices and proprietary applied intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletterFollow The Road to Autonomy IndicesSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Diane King Hall talks about Erste Group's upgrade on Meta Platforms (META) as the firm sees promise in the Mag 7 giant's CapEx plans. Bank of America is reinstating Shopify (SHOP) with a buy rating and a $150 price target. Diane also mentions reports of Fiserv (FISV) looking to sell its payments infrastructure business.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As Chief Investment Strategist at Hightower Advisors, Stephanie Link spends her days researching the market's winners. Today, she's breaking it all down for us. Stephanie explains why the economy keeps defying the doom-and-gloom headlines, which stocks she thinks will champion the next decade, and why she believes we're only in the third inning of the AI revolution. Nicole and Stephanie get tactical fast: the difference between the Mag 7 and the "S&P 493," which stocks are not worth the hype, and Stephanie's thesis that cybersecurity stocks will end up being bigger than AI. She names her favorite tickers across cybersecurity, data centers, robotics, and quantum computing, and explains whether it's too late to buy NVIDIA. Stephanie also gets real about the so-called "AI bubble," the circular spending debate freaking out investors, and why she bought SpaceX but capped it at just 2% of her portfolio. Plus: what her 19-year-old daughter is investing in, why "FAANG" just got a 2026 update, and the one boring, unsexy ETF Stephanie says every new investor should consider. Check out Nicole's financial literacy course ⁠The Money School⁠ Find a Financial Advisor or Financial Coach from Nicole's company ⁠Private Wealth Collective⁠ Watch video clips from the pod on ⁠Money Rehab's Instagram⁠ and ⁠Nicole Lapin's Instagram⁠  Read more about Stephanie's work Here's what Nicole covers with Stephanie: 00:00 Are You Ready for Some Money Rehab? 01:12 Stephanie Link Joins Money Rehab 01:41 Why the Market Keeps Defying the Doom and Gloom 04:07 CapEx, Decoded 06:58 The K-Shaped Economy: Why the Vibes Don't Match the Numbers 09:49 Inflation, Oil Prices, and the War's Ripple Effect 11:41 Mag 7 vs. the S&P 493: Which ETF Should You Buy? 16:16 Why Stephanie Says No to Leveraged ETFs 17:32 Cybersecurity Will Be Bigger Than AI 20:16 The Best Cybersecurity Stocks on Stephanie's List 23:15 How to Vet a CEO Before You Buy the Stock 25:16 Investing Lessons from Stephanie's 19-Year-Old Daughter 28:23 What Stephanie Won't Buy: Crypto, Staples, and Energy 32:20 Inside the AI "Food Chain": Powering the Data Center Boom 35:43 Robotics and Quantum Computing: The Next Big Themes 41:00 MicroStrategy vs. Palo Alto: What "On Sale" Really Means 43:07 FAANG Is Dead, Long Live MANGOES 43:47 Why Stephanie Bought SpaceX (and Kept It to 2%) 55:40 Is It Too Late to Buy NVIDIA? 59:06 Grading the Innings: AI, Cybersecurity, and Robotics 59:50 Hot Stocks: Micron, SanDisk, and the Chips Everyone's Chasing 1:02:27 Is There an AI Bubble? 1:03:16 The Circular Spending Debate 1:08:08 Stephanie Link's Tip You Can Take Straight to the Bank All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any financial decisions or investments. Disclosures: Hightower invests in companies including Boeing Company, Dover Corp, General Electric, Quanta Services, Rockwell Automation, Union Pacific Corporation, Broadcom, International Business Machines Corporation, Marvell Technology Inc, ServiceNow Inc, Palo Alto Networks Inc, Snowflake Inc, Synopsys Inc, Bank of America, Capital One, Coinbase, Morgan Stanley, Truist Financial Corp, Amazon.com Inc, Meta, SpaceX, Alcoa Corp, Antofagasta PLC, Natera Inc, UnitedHealth Group Inc, iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, SLB Limited

From the open to the close, “Closing Bell” and “Closing Bell: Overtime” have you covered. From what's driving market moves to how investors are reacting, Scott Wapner, Melissa Lee and Michael Santoli guide listeners through each trading session and bring to you some of the biggest names in business. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4vddsCn In a midyear 2026 Dividend Cafe holiday episode, the host reviews surprises and themes shaping markets: despite the “Mag Seven” down about 2%, the S&P 493 is up roughly 15–16% and the overall index about 10%, reflecting a major rotation toward value, smaller caps, and sectors like industrials, utilities, and energy. Another surprise is the two-year Treasury yield rising from ~3.4% to nearly 4.25% as rate-cut expectations faded, flattening the curve without derailing equity valuations. He discusses AI “vulnerabilities,” noting hyperscalers' surging CapEx and financing, dispersion across AI-related stocks, and froth signaled by a parabolic semiconductor run and tech's heavy S&P weight, alongside speculation in meme stocks and levered single-stock ETFs. Economically, tariffs were partially removed, labor data remains mixed, M&A/SPAC activity is strong, energy and small caps have worked, housing has softened, and he reiterates disciplined, fundamental, value-oriented investing. 00:00 Holiday Weekend Welcome 00:36 Midyear Market Setup 01:21 Mag Seven Surprise 03:27 Rates Rise Yet Stocks 04:40 AI Theme Check In 05:28 Capex And Cash Flow 08:08 Valuations And Dispersion 09:50 Semiconductor Froth Warning 12:03 Speculation Beyond Crypto 14:36 Economic Tug Of War 17:14 M&A And SPAC Revival 18:26 Other Themes Scorecard 20:07 Midyear Closing Thoughts Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Denny Lee is PM Director, Startups & Ecosystem at Databricks, a longtime Apache Spark, MLflow, and Delta Lake contributor — and one of the people behind Omnigent, the open-source meta-harness Databricks just released under Apache 2.0. He joins Demetrios to explain why the industry is moving from models to harnesses to meta-harnesses, why token spend is replaying the CapEx-to-OpEx shift all over again, and why he's using debating AI agents to plan a matcha farm in Taiwan.In this episode:

Following meetings across Europe and Asia, our Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Research, Serena Tang, discusses two of the main themes on investors' minds: uncertainty around U.S. monetary policy and increasing caution toward AI despite its long-term potential.Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Global Head of Cross-Asset Strategy Research at Morgan Stanley.And today, I'm bringing you a debrief from my investor meetings across Europe and Asia, and the key debates around AI and the Fed.It's Thursday, July 2nd at 10am in New York.The last two weeks, I have been traveling in Europe and Asia to meet with investors to discuss Morgan Stanley's latest views. Two themes dominated nearly every room I walked into.The first is the Federal Reserve and monetary policy path in the U.S. Many investors had interpreted Chair Kevin Warsh's June FOMC meeting, his first at the helm, as unambiguously hawkish. What market investors at my meetings pointed out is that [the] Fed's Summary of Economic Projections – commonly shortened to SEP, which details policymakers' forecasts for macro metrics like GDP growth, inflation, and the federal funds rate – added a hike in 2026 and pushed out rate cuts, implying more restrictive policy.Now, Morgan Stanley's economists think that hikes implied by SEP at the June FOMC meeting should be interpreted with caution. The projections appeared conditioned on elevated near-term inflation and may not capture the disinflation from a straight reopening. We actually anticipate a lower path for core inflation given a combination of a reversal in travel-related inflation and tariff payback, which lead to our call that the Fed remains on hold through 2026.The second recurring theme in meetings with investors across regions is, unsurprisingly, AI. While in every single meeting investors believe firmly in the secular story of ongoing AI CapEx cycle, there was some unease – especially since AI is now also becoming an inflation story on the macro side and a funding story on the micro side.Chipflation is a new word in town, with markets still debating whether it can be one of the things that derail the AI CapEx cycle. In our economists' and sector analysts' views, it's more nuanced. While memory price is up sixfold over the past year, we think chipflation is more likely to reprice and ration AI infrastructure than derail the cycle. AI demand is scaling across three layers at once, more memory per chip, more chips per system, and more systems per cluster, while hyperscalers remain first in the allocation queue. Now, the key risk is CapEx efficiency. Memory is becoming a larger share of the AI system cost, but the cycle, we think, remains intact.As for AI funding needs, the debate with investors has been how much more can it accelerate? It's worth noting that the majority of corporate bond issuance quarter-to-date has been related to funding construction of data centers.Hyperscale's have been broadening their investor base through non-dollar issuances. They have collectively issued around $25 billion of debt in other currencies like euro, Swiss franc, and the [Japanese yen] in May.Our credit strategy colleagues forecast nearly another $600 billion of AI-related global issuance in 2026; meaning for U.S. IG corporate bonds alone, we expect one trillion of net issuance, a reason for our view that the asset class can underperform this year. With our equity colleagues estimating hyperscaler cash CapEx to surpass $1 trillion in 2027, we expect issuance to accelerate.Bringing it all together, investors globally are all grappling with the same uncertainties around the Fed and AI CapEx, which will likely continue to be key debates to come. But Morgan Stanley's base case view of lower inflation driving the Fed to stay on hold and a strong AI CapEx cycle that remains intact means we recommend investors should still stay constructive on risk assets.Thanks for listening. Let us know what you think by leaving a review. And if you enjoyed the podcast, please share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Warren Pies of 3Fourteen Research joins Excess Returns to break down the AI bull market, the macro risks investors should watch, and why the data still supports continued strength in semiconductors and equities. We discuss GPU demand, token usage, open source AI, Fed policy, housing weakness, oil, earnings growth, market valuations and the biggest risks to the current cycle.Warren Pies on Xhttps://x.com/WarrenPies3Fourteen Researchhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/Calibanhttps://www.3fourteenresearch.com/calibanMain topics coveredWhich bearish AI arguments actually matter for investorsWhy regulatory risk may be the biggest long-term AI concernHow data center spending is crowding out housing investmentWhy the Fed may struggle to cool AI-driven investment without hurting the labor marketWhat GPU availability says about real-time AI compute demandWhy open source AI is not yet replacing frontier modelsHow token pricing and OpenRouter data help measure AI usageWhy semiconductor stocks may still be in the middle of a major cycleHow semis are being valued differently than traditional cyclicalsWhy Fed policy, earnings growth and market multiples are key to the second half of 2026What oil positioning and refined product inventories say about macro riskWhy 3Fourteen remains constructive on equities despite rising overheating riskTimestamps00:00 Intro01:04 Which bearish AI arguments have teeth?04:00 Why AI regulation is the biggest long-term risk07:03 Technology spending versus housing investment11:03 How AI CapEx is showing up in inflation data13:04 Why the labor market is more fragile than headline jobs data suggests16:24 Why GPU availability is a cleaner signal than CapEx announcements21:00 What token pricing and OpenRouter data reveal about AI demand27:36 How 3Fourteen benchmarks frontier models against open source AI30:00 Why the semiconductor selloff looked like a buyable dip34:02 Are semiconductors still cyclical businesses?38:08 Why Fed tightening could be the thing that ends the bull market42:15 What the oil shock means now45:47 Refined product inventories, crack spreads and energy stocks47:18 Are earnings estimates becoming too optimistic?50:49 Why the debasement regime still supports equities54:05 Where to find Warren Pies and 3Fourteen Research

Can both hyperscaler and chipmaker stocks rally together? That's the question Charles Schwab's Nathan Peterson poses to investors, as he explains the role ROI has in both corners of the tech space. "Something's got to give" when it comes to profits, as Nate points out the underperformance in the Mag 7 as a yellow flag warning of tentative headwinds. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

KR Sridhar is the Founder and CEO of Bloom Energy, the distributed power company powering the AI revolution. Under his leadership, Bloom has grown to a market cap of approximately $93 billion, with revenue surpassing $2 billion as demand from AI data centres has surged. Over the last 12–18 months, Bloom has become one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom. It's also the largest position in Leo Aschenbrenner's investment portfolio, making up around 16% of his fund. AGENDA: 00:00 Why Failure Is Never an Option: The Mindset That Built a $90B Company 05:20 The 25-Year Bet: Why Bloom Never Doubted AI Would Need Its Technology 12:10 Andy Grove's Brutal Leadership Lesson That Changed Everything 18:40 AI Isn't a Bubble—It's a "Hockey Stick on a Hockey Stick" 25:30 Why Electricity, Not AI Models, Will Decide the Winners of the AI Race 34:20 The Radical Vision: Why Power Must Move to the Edge of the Grid 40:40 How Bloom Beat Everyone to Power Oracle's AI Data Centres in Just 55 Days 50:00 The Future of Cities, Energy Sovereignty & Why AI Will Democratise Power 52:10 Parenting, Purpose & the One Belief KR Thinks Everyone Gets Wrong About AI 55:00 The Next 10 Years: Why AI Could Create Global Energy Abundance    

Seasoned analyst Ron Stewart (Red Cloud) provides expert mining investment sector insights in this MSE episode. Stewart shares his bullish outlook for metals and comments on the current pullback in mining stocks. He sees a “generational opportunity” in gold stocks and offers valuation tips for producers and developers. Ron further comments on sector M&A, risks for juniors attempting to build mines and the current financing environment. 00:00 Intro 00:42 Market Shift Q1 to Q2 03:36 Gold Opportunity Now 04:34 Best Gold Equity Value 06:46 Jurisdiction and Management 10:42 M&A Drivers in Gold 13:37 Build or Sell the Mine 18:13 Capex and Project Economics 21:26 Copper Outlook and Demand 24:33 Small Copper Deposits 28:17 Royalties Dividends and Reinvestment 35:15 Project Generators and Exploration 37:13 Financing Market Update 39:02 Analyst Models and Assumptions 44:53 Replacement Value Advantage 45:50 Where to Follow Ron https://redcloudsecurities.com/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Mining Stock Education (MSE) offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Today's John J. Hardy substack post. Today, a look at some incredible volatility and cross-currents in the US equity market as Mag7 continues to come in for a beating as chip stocks soared once again. But then the two Korean memory makers stumble overnight, perhaps on Samsung announcing it my plow KRW 1 quadrillion (about USD 650 billion) into cap-ex over the next decade. Elsewhere, the market gave Apple the thumbs down for its greedy plan to make even more money from its customers due to higher input costs. Macro and FX and a busy event risk calendar next week and more also on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on today's podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within two to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Micron's blowout quarter with revenue up 346% to $41.5 billion, 84.9% gross margin, and DRAM/NAND supply now constrained through 2027, the implications of doubling CapEx to $40-50 billion in FY27, Trump's $88 billion supplemental spending request for the Iran war, farmer aid, and Ebola, the canceled signing of the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, escalating Senate Republican tensions over Iran, the DOJ's egg price-fixing settlement with Cal-Maine, the narrowing K-shaped economy spending gap, today's PCE inflation print, and rates finally moving as oil drops below $70.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Brian Szytel recaps a broad market sell-off led by technology and semiconductors, highlighting a nearly 10% drop in South Korea's KOSPI—an index heavily concentrated in Samsung and SK Hynix—attributed to valuation, demand shifts, and DRAM supply issues after a major run-up. He notes similar 5–10% declines in high-flying semiconductor names and emphasizes that despite real AI-driven demand and a rare reversal of decades-long chip price declines due to supply-demand imbalance, valuations still matter. On the economic front, flash PMIs were strong: manufacturing surged to 55.7, the highest in a little over four years, and services also beat expectations, supporting an improving growth backdrop tied partly to data-center CapEx. He addresses concerns about the U.S. dollar losing reserve status, arguing no viable replacement exists, citing dollar dominance in FX (90%) and global reserves (57%) versus the euro (20%). 00:00 Summer Market Check-In 00:31 Global Tech Sell-Off 01:38 Semis Valuation Reality 02:01 AI Chip Demand Shift 02:48 PMI Data Highlights 03:43 Dollar Reserve Status Fears 04:32 What Could Replace Dollar 05:53 Reserve Currency Numbers 06:32 Wrap Up and Q&A Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

The Iran deal looked like a breakthrough until both sides started spinning it within the hour, but oil kept falling and the dollar stayed bid anyway. Marty and John walk through a week of narrative violations, from WTI dropping into the mid seventies to Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish first FOMC press conference. They dig into why hyperscaler CapEx exploding while free cash flow collapses makes Volcker 2.0 impossible, how housing affordability and debt service are pushing the Fed and Treasury back together, and why frontier AI is now a state secret. They also check in on Bitcoin's quiet grind, with Taiwan's central bank exploring reserves and BlackRock still building products in the background.

Dan Nathan and Guy Adami host a special Risk Reversal episode with guest Danny Moses to discuss the latest Fed meeting under Kevin Warsh, emphasizing peak hawkish messaging, reduced forward guidance (including questioning the dot plot), and the market's feedback loop. They debate surging volatility and extreme AI/semiconductor valuations, highlighting Intel's sharp rally on customer speculation and concerns about narrative-driven pricing, correlation risk, and potential CapEx pullbacks, with Micron's upcoming earnings as a key test. The group also covers gold's pullback, favoring gold miners like AEM, and argues energy could rebound despite recent weakness. They note consumer strain using Kroger's warnings on rising costs and promotional shopping, alongside elevated delinquencies and credit card debt. After the break, Dan speaks with CNBC's Deirdre Bosa about SpaceX's IPO, “vibe investing,” xAI's compute strategy, the Cursor acquisition, AI token-cost pressures, and how export controls may accelerate adoption of Chinese open-source models like DeepSeek. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack. In this conversation, we discuss the AI pivot happening with hyperscalers, the rise of open source models, what the Mythos/Fable Five situation means for governments and investors, Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference, where inflation is actually headed, and why bitcoin is still in a bear market and what needs to change.====================Simple Mining makes Bitcoin mining simple and accessible for everyone. We offer a premium white glove hosting service, helping you maximize the profitability of Bitcoin mining. For more information on Simple Mining or to get started mining Bitcoin, visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp====================Arch Public is an agentic trading platform that automates the buying and selling of your preferred crypto strategies. Sign up today at https://www.archpublic.com and start your automated trading strategy for free. No catch. No hidden fees. Just smarter trading.====================Looking for a better place to trade? BloFin gives traders access to deep liquidity, advanced futures products for crypto AND TradFi assets, fast execution, and a clean, intuitive interface—all in one platform. To celebrate their partnership with us, they're giving away $100,000 in Deposit & Trade Rewards. Deposit, trade, and earn rewards based on your activity during the campaign.====================0:00 - Intro0:57 - AI pivot & hyperscaler weakness5:47 - Open source models & US vs China AI race7:19 - Token demand, Jevons Paradox & AI adoption trends14:22 - When does the CapEx spending become a problem?17:59 - Open source vs closed AI models — who wins long term?19:25 - Agency & what it means for individuals24:34 - Is AI & energy the only thing holding the market up?28:32 - Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference31:36 - Inflation outlook & next CPI print37:44 - Why so many Americans feel trapped & real cost of living44:51 - Bitcoin bear market & what needs to change

Is the AI trade a bubble? Imran Khan — founder of Proem Asset Management, former Snap executive, and the banker behind the Alibaba and Mercado Libre IPOs — isn't convinced. Dan Nathan sits down with Imran to pressure-test the bear case, from Nvidia's below-market multiple to the cyclical-vs-secular debate in memory, and to dig into why a big chunk of SpaceX's $2.5T valuation may not be a space story at all. Topics Covered Why hyperscalers underperform during heavy CapEx cycles — and why that's historically the best time to buy Distribution vs. technology: how Gemini won while arguably being the inferior model, and why Grok couldn't Meta's setup — cheap on earnings, not cheap on free cash flow — and the Zuckerberg "big swing" risk Nvidia at a $5T market cap: the $20B debt raise, buybacks, and the customers-are-competitors problem Micron and high-bandwidth memory sold out into 2027, and the cyclical-vs-secular question that decides the stock The "bottleneck trade" everyone's chasing — and why earnings durability is the thing to watch Energy constraints, data center delays, and the long-term demand picture Imran's contrarian case that AI won't create structural unemployment SpaceX's valuation decoded: rocket launch, Starlink, and the xAI cloud ramp What OpenAI and Anthropic coming to market could mean for the AI trade —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

As AI investment keeps growing, our strategists Carolyn Campbell and Vishwas Patkar discuss the many ways tech infrastructure gets financed and the opportunities for investors.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Carolyn Campbell: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Carolyn Campbell, Morgan Stanley's Asset-Backed Securities Strategist. Vishwas Patkar: And I'm Vishwas Patkar, Morgan Stanley's Head of U.S. Corporate Credit Strategy. Carolyn Campbell: Today, how fixed income markets are helping fund the AI build-out. It's Thursday, June 18th, at 10am in New York. Let's get right into it, Vishwas. We've both come on this podcast before to talk about how credit markets are financing the AI build-out. And over the last ten months, I think it's fair to say that things are faster, broader, deeper than we perhaps expected initially. This investment now spans investment-grade corporate bonds, high yield loans, and a range of securitized products. From your seat in corporate credit, why does AI infrastructure matter so much, to investors right now? Vishwas Patkar: This is a big talking point in our client discussions. it's also telling that less than a year ago, we wrote about this topic for the first time, identifying a $1.5 trillion financing gap that credit markets could help bridge. At that time, data center debt was not something that investors were really focused on. Yet less than 12 months forward, this, I think, is the number one theme dominating both your and my market. And why it's important, I would say, is across, three key vectors. First, just the scale. So, if you look at overall AI-related debt issuance so far this year, we're close to $250 billion. For the balance of the year, we expect that number to double, so about $500 billion of total AI debt financing for 2026. Increasingly the second vector, I think, is around the complexity of deals. So initially, while AI financing was dominated by vanilla investment-grade corporate bond deals, we are now seeing that broaden out into project finance style deals in the high-yield market. We have seen an uptick in chip financing across the different credit silos. And that's important for investors, as identifying value across these different options does require deep credit expertise. And third, as this investment cycle rolls along, it's also important to be cognizant of risks that are building. Not just from a very broad top-down sense around the demand for compute. But also, what are some of the nuances in these different structures – whether it is in data center construction or is in chip financing that investors will need to monitor. So, it's across these three themes that we think data center debt financing is gaining importance. Carolyn Campbell: Now, the underlying demand for AI infrastructure is very strong. That doesn't necessarily mean that every bond tied to this theme is automatically going to be attractive. And as you mentioned, [$]500 billion of supply for the year; a large amount of complexity between those structures.How should credit investors think about the various risks within these different structures? Vishwas Patkar: So, in investment grade, the story is a bit simpler. So, we have had unsecured hyperscaler bond issuance. We have had issuance from semiconductor names. And then we've had some, what we call, private style data center deals. But the vast majority still comes from hyperscaler investment grade rated bonds. For this market, our focus is less on fundamentals because fundamentals are very strong. And then hyperscaler are some of the more most creditworthy companies that we've seen in the history of the market. Our emphasis more is on just the quantum of supply. So, year to date, we have had north of [$]100 billion of hyperscaler debt in the dollar market. We've had north of [$]50 billion being issued in other currencies. If you look at the overall investment grade market, supply is up almost 25 percent versus last year. That's consistent with our call for a year of record issuance this year. And increasingly, if you look forward and then map these issuance numbers to our CapEx estimates, where we could very much be on track for another record to be hit next year. So, the issue of the investment grade market is not around the fundamentals of the companies or these deals. It's more about the quantum of supply, which we think eventually will test the demand capacity of this market. And our base case for the investment grade space is similar to 1997-1998, where credit was starting to finance the business cycle, spreads widened modestly, and IG could underperform other risk assets. But over a longer time horizon, spreads still look historically very low. Carolyn Campbell: Now, what about further down the credit spectrum into the non-investment grade portion? What about that part of the issuance spectrum for AI? Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. So, what we're seeing in the sub-investment grade space, especially in high yield, is very different. There, the growth in data center financing has happened around project finance deals for data center construction. In many cases, these have come from crypto miner companies that effectively provide what we call speed to power solutions. We've also had some unsecured issuance from neo clouds, although that's relatively small. But this sector has expanded from effectively zero billion around the fall of last year to about [$]40 billion this year. We expect to see another [$]20 billion of issuance by the end of 2026. And the way they fit into this whole ecosystem is – these project finance deals we think are interesting diversifiers for regular credit investors. They do come with construction risks, especially initially for the first two to three years till the data center is up and running. But on the flip side, you do get a lot of structural enhancements and creditor protections, which is something you don't see in the vast majority of the high yield market. So, I think a key shift in the framework that investors have to do for these deals is focus on asset-level risk, which is again, I think a big divergence from how the vast majority of the credit market trades, which is largely unsecured corporate-level risk that investors have been used to. Carolyn Campbell: All right. You just brought up construction risks. Do you think that's the biggest risk facing the high-yield investors today? Vishwas Patkar: Yes. I think for the high-yield deals in particular, construction risk is the dominant vector that investors are focused on. Because it's important to remember a lot of the debt issuers are first-time borrowers. And they have a limited track record of construction in the past. So, you could see potential delays and things like cost overruns that can affect sentiment on the sector. Or at least on specific bond deals. And this will be especially important to monitor going into the second half of the year, as we have some of the first delivery dates coming up for the deals in the sector that were announced last year. That being said, you know, even though some of the tenants have termination rights, if delays go beyond 180 days, our view is that given the structural power constraints, these termination rights are unlikely to be exercised. So, while construction milestones can affect sentiment and short-term valuations, we would look at any blips as buying opportunities in the space. Alright. So Carolyn, let me throw this back to you. So, construction risk clearly very important for the corporate credit market, especially for high yield investors. Is that something ABS investors or commercial mortgage-backed investors care about? And in what other ways are these asset classes different from corporate credit? Carolyn Campbell: Okay. So first and foremost, the biggest difference is that in securitized products, the assets are stabilized, they're cash flowing, they're online. We don't have that first vector of construction risk in our space. The second biggest difference is while in high yield and IG we've mostly seen – or we've entirely seen single campus, single tenant data centers; in securitization issuance, it's mostly multi-tenant, multi-asset, multi-regional, deals that have come to market. And so, it's a very different risk profile. And as a consequence, investors are focused not just on who is behind this one single lease and what are the termination rates, but what does the landscape look like in general for compute? How does that affect vacancy and churn rates? And then lastly, the issuers themselves are different. You talked about the crypto companies. You get a little bit more of the data center, data center construction. Whereas in securitized products, these are companies that have been around for 5, 10, 20 years. They're accustomed to managing a fleet of assets, dozens if not hundreds of tenants. They've got a little bit more of a track record for the most part, than the types of issuers we're seeing in the credit market. Vishwas Patkar: Your market post-construction, more leverage to the thematic of demand for compute – and how the AI investment cycle is playing out. Versus the corporate credit market, which is largely exposed to construction risks as the data centers get built out. So that's a very important difference.That being said, one theme that ties both our markets are just healthy fundamentals, but at the same time heavy supply. So, I talked about how we see that affecting our view on investment grade. How is that same tension showing up in securitized products? Carolyn Campbell: So exactly as you said, the fundamental story is very strong. We don't see deterioration in performance of the assets either that has happened yet or that we expect to come in the near term. So, it really is a technically driven story. Supply in this space, we're forecasting at around [$]30 billion for year, so smaller in magnitude, but relatively large for the market. That has very elevated supply expectations, and so as a consequence, we've seen spreads back up across the space. We do think that some of the cross-asset comparisons will help keep spreads contained from here. And so, we do see value in securitized credit across the stack for the rest of the year. Vishwas Patkar: All right. So, you brought up the cross-asset comparison. And so, we've discussed the fundamental differences in our market, how much issuance we expect. But, you know, just to end on a commercial note – if we are advising investors on where is the best relative value and what's the framework for comparing opportunities, how do you think about that? Where do we see value across the ecosystem? Carolyn Campbell: I mean, I think this is probably the biggest question that investors that are looking at this space are facing today. And there's... If we're thinking just about the data center backed assets, I think there are two main things. One is the asset itself, where we're focused on things like the geography, the tenant, the interconnectivity, the flexibility of this asset for multiple uses. And then the second is on the structure of the deal itself. How much leverage is being raised against the asset? How cash flowing is it? And then of course, the duration as well. But it's a great question. And because of the complexity of this space, it can be really hard to compare one to the other. Vishwas Patkar: Yeah. And, at the risk of providing a non-answer, I very much think investors are in the process of coming up with a framework because these deals have come very quickly. This is a new sector for most credit investors to analyze. But I think what we can say with a high degree of certainty is this is blurring the lines between corporate credit and securitized credit. So, you know, this opens up more avenues for us to collaborate on this topic going forward. Carolyn Campbell: All right. That's a great place for us to leave it today with that nice cross-collaboration. Vishwas, thank you so much for taking the time to talk. Vishwas Patkar: Great speaking with you, Caroline. Carolyn Campbell: Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.