Podcasts about capex

Feb 18, 2026: What's Next for AI AcceleratorsAMD's CEO Lisa Su thinks the market for cutting-edge AI chips will be worth $1 trillion annually by 2030 and NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang (who happens to be Lisa's cousin once-removed) believes AI infrastructure spend will total $4 trillion during the next five years.If those forecasts are even directionally correct, both AMD and NVIDIA will still have quite an extended growth runway in this red hot semiconductor sector.But are these admittedly self-serving forecasts actually realistic?Or is AI hardware likely to become commoditized and lower-priced during that timeframe?And are there other competitors who might also pose a challenge in this two-horse race?On Wednesday's show, I was joined by Chip Stock Investor founder Nick Rossolillo to describe what lies ahead for both NVIDIA and AMD.We also discussed why Apple is spending significantly on CapEx less than its other Big Tech peers, whether Moore's Law is actually dead, and the role of newcomers like Cerebras Systems and IonQ.#NVIDIA #AMD #semiconductors #AIchips #JensenHuang #LisaSu #chipstocks #datacenter #investing #Broadcom #Apple #TSMC #Cerebras #quantumcomputing #7investing #chipstockinvestor #techinvesting #AIinfrastructure #hyperscalers #GPUvsCPU #waferschale #FormulaOne #poleposition #techanalysis #stockmarket2026

December's construction spending showed more strength, with Kevin Green making the case that it sets the foundation for more bullish traction in markets. PPI is a different story. He explains the volatility behind the inflation uptick. KG also has his eyes on the commodity space as he walks investors through the bump higher in crude oil prices. He later turns to the tech space and talks about the CapEx linchpin behind CoreWeave's earnings volatility. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

CoreWeave (CRWV) shares collapsed with investors expressing concerns on the company's "show me" story. Meghan Joyce presents a bull case in its backlog but a bear case in the construction needed to obtain that revenue. Logan Gilland adds to Meghan's points by saying he would not "buy into the blood" in CoreWeave's selling action. He says investors should wait to see who wins "the race to be first" in capitalizing on CapEx. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Original Release Date: Feb 6, 2026Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

Today I'm joined by Michael Maroone, Chairman and CEO of Maroone USA. Michael breaks down why new cars are becoming commodities, where profit has actually migrated, and why culture, curiosity, and operational freedom matter more than pay plans. This episode is brought to you by: 1. Podium - 78% of customers buy from the first business that responds, yet most businesses reply an hour or more late. Jerry 2.0 is the only fully customizable AI Employee. Jerry learns your playbooks, understands your inventory, schedules appointments, books test drives, handles trade-ins, books consultations, sends promotions, requests reviews, and learns from your feedback—within minutes, day or night. Businesses now let Podium's AI Employees handle 40% of their inbound leads, giving teams more time for their customers—and more time home for dinner. Learn what Jerry can do for you @ here! 2. Carfax - Drive long-term customer loyalty with CARFAX. Visit @ https://www.carfax.com/ to learn more. 3. Nomad Content Studio - Most dealers still fumble social—posting dry inventory pics or handing it off without a plan. Meanwhile, the store down the street is racking up millions of views and selling / buying cars using video. That's where Nomad Content Studio comes in. We train your own videographer, direct what to shoot, and handle strategy, to posting, to feedback. Want in with the team behind George Saliba, EV Auto, and top auto groups? Book a call @ http://www.trynomad.co Check out Car Dealership Guy's stuff: For dealers: CDG Circles ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://cdgcircles.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Industry job board ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://jobs.dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Dealership recruiting ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgrecruiting.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Fix your dealership's social media ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.trynomad.co⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Request to be a podcast guest ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgguest.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ For industry vendors: Advertise with Car Dealership Guy ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgpartner.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Industry job board ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://jobs.dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Request to be a podcast guest ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠http://www.cdgguest.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Topics: 06:10 Instead of GMs, use equity-owning "President Partners." 06:45 Use a "Freedom Frame" for flexible governance. 08:00 High goodwill stores make partner buy-ins impossible. 19:55 Never use compensation to run your business. 21:10 Ask 20 questions in every elevator ride. 24:15 New car product has been totally commoditized. 26:15 We are facing a lost generation of CapEx. 32:15 Measure "Super PVR" to see total deal economics. 39:45 Reject framework agreements; they only hinder growth. Car Dealership Guy Socials: X ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠x.com/GuyDealership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠instagram.com/cardealershipguy/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠tiktok.com/@guydealership⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ LinkedIn ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠linkedin.com/company/cardealershipguy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Threads ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠threads.net/@cardealershipguy⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Facebook ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠facebook.com/profile.php?id=100077402857683⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Everything else ➤ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠dealershipguy.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

By the end of 2026, AI capital expenditure is projected to hit nearly $700 billion. The question isn't who has the best model, but who has the most creative financing to build out AI infrastructure and beyond. Sarah Guo is joined by Neil Tiwari, Managing Director at Magnetar Capital, a financial innovator helping the AI industry scale from billions to trillions of dollars in CapEx. Neil explains some of the debt structures used to finance massive GPU clusters, who is taking the risk, and how the industry is maturing. Sarah and Neil also discuss how power distribution, energy storage, and physical materials like steel are the bottlenecks of the AI industry. Plus, Neil gives his take on the future of inference-optimized clouds, and why the market shift away from software and into infrastructure might be an overreaction. Sign up for new podcasts every week. Email feedback to show@no-priors.com Follow us on Twitter: @NoPriorsPod | @Saranormous | @EladGil  Chapters: 00:00 – Cold Open 00:05 – Neil Tiwari Introduction 00:26 – Magnetar's Story 01:28 – Why CoreWeave Helped Magnetar Win 06:15 – Scaling CapEx Efficiently 09:02 – Debunking GPU Collateral Risk 11:42 – How Deal Structures Evolve 13:01 – What Bottlenecks Buildout 15:28 – Circular Financing Critiques 17:35 – The Shift from Training to Inference Workloads 23:10 – AI Factories 24:12 – Constraints of the Current Power Grid 28:27 – Sovereign Compute Buildouts 29:54 – Physical AI Capital Needs 32:48 – The Capital Rotation Away from SaaS 36:04 – Conclusion

Nvidia's (NVDA) downside price action off what Olivier Blanchard considers stellar is "odd," though he understands concerns on the Big Tech CapEx narrative. Additionally, he sees a lack of energy supply serving as another major headwind for Nvidia. Keith Gangl notes that Nvidia is cheap compared to its historic average, now trading at a P/E ratio in the 20s. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

For most companies in the oil industry, drilling new wells is a major part of their business strategy. Today, we're highlighting a firm that's taking a very different tack. Will Ulrich has served as co-CEO of Presidio Petroleum alongside his partner Chris Hammack, since founding the company in 2017. Presidio's mission is to generate the oil industry's best return on capital by delivering the industry's lowest operating expenses, highest profitability and best emissions profile — all without doing any drilling. Today, Will shares Presidio's unique approach to value creation, their upcoming plan to go public via business combination, and the reasons why they're optimistic for the future. Highlights:Founding Presidio (1:57)Going Public (4:45)The end of the 'Capital Intensive Shale Era' (7:06)Institutional Backing (8:58)Dividend (10:46)Private Equity (13:58)Reducing Operating Costs (17:21)Field Incentive Plan (20:55)Stable Well Production (22:30)Hedging (23:42)CapEx (25:43)Acquisition Strategy (27:23)5-year Outlook (29:17)Links: Will Ulrich LinkedInPresidio LinkedInPresidio WebsiteICR LinkedInICR TwitterICR Website Feedback:If you have questions about the show, or have a topic in mind you'd like discussed in future episodes, email our producer, joe@lowerstreet.co.

Kevin Hincks opens the show with a simple thought: Where does all of the massive capital expenditure spending go? Nvidia (NVDA) is his answer. He and Nicole Petallides describe the significance of Nvidia's earnings release to the overall market, the tech sector and the hyperscaler customers for Nvidia. Later, he addresses President Trump's economic policy announcements during the State of the Union speech on Tuesday evening. Kevin also looks at the dip in mortgage rates, which he believes could stimulate the housing market this spring & summer. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Gary Shields calls this a “normalization year” and thinks the market can continue to move higher driven by AI. He doesn't see any underlying signals threatening the rally, citing factors like liquidity, strong balance sheets and strong earnings. He argues that AI is structural, not cyclical, and the difference between this and other cycles like the dot-com bubble is that AI companies are actually making money.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Dave Altavilla offers commentary on Nvidia's (NVDA) earnings minutes following the report. He says the company's record quarter shows that Nvidia is "powering" the AI trade on all fronts and helps ease fears of massive CapEx spending in hyperscalers like Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta Platforms (META). Dave also explains why he doesn't see margin compression in the cards for Nvidia. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains why he still believes in a growth cycle for equity markets, even as investors show growing concerns around AI.Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast, I'll be discussing recent concerns around AI disruption. It's Tuesday, February 24th at 1pm in New York. So, let's get after it. Last week you could feel it, that anxious undercurrent in the market. The headlines were noisy, volatility ticked higher, and AI disruption, once again, dominated investor conversations. But beneath the surface level unease something important happened. The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index pushed to a new relative high, keeping our broadening thesis alive and well. On one hand, investors are worried about AI driven disruption, CapEx intensity, and potential labor force reductions. On the other hand, capital is still flowing into formerly lagging areas of the market, just as the median stock is seeing its strongest earnings growth in four years. Let's unpack this. First, there's concern AI will lead to job losses. But even if that's the case, there's typically a phase-in period. Companies don't just eliminate labor overnight. Importantly, before these productivity gains are fully realized, we need broad enterprise adoption. That means building out the agentic application layer, integrating AI into workflows, retraining systems and processes. That takes time, and it is still early days in that regard. Second, what we're seeing now is typical of a major investment cycle. Volatility increases as markets challenge the pace of unbridled spending. Dispersion increases as investors debate winners and losers. Leadership rotates, sometimes sharply. There's also something different this time compared to the internet bubble of the late 1990s. Today we're in an early cycle earnings backdrop. We've just emerged from what was effectively a rolling recession between 2022 and 2025. So, as capital rotates out of the perceived structural losers, it's not just chasing long-term AI beneficiaries, it's also finding classic cyclical winners. On the losing side is long duration services-oriented sectors, particularly software. These areas are more sensitive to uncertainty around longer term cash flows. This area also has a large overhang of private capital deployed over the last 10 to 15 years. There are other forces at play too. Small cap growth, arguably the longest duration segment of the market, began breaking down in late January around the time Kevin Warsh was nominated as Fed chair. While major indices barely reacted, more speculative areas may be responding to expectations of tighter liquidity given Warsh's, reputation as a balance sheet hawk. Finally, equity markets are typically more volatile when new Fed chairs assume office. Bottom line, our broader thesis of an early cycle rolling recovery remains intact. Market internals are supportive even if index level action feels choppy. That said, near term volatility is likely to persist as we enter a weaker seasonal window for retail demand, while liquidity remains ample, but far from abundant. With this backdrop, a quality cyclical barbell with healthcare makes sense. In small caps, the higher quality S&P 600 looks more attractive than the Russell 2000. And any short-term volatility could present opportunities to add exposure in preferred cyclical areas like Consumer Discretionary Goods, Industrials, and Financials. Of course, risks remain. AI adoption could accelerate faster than expected, pressuring labor markets more abruptly. Pricing power could erode as efficiency spread, and policy makers could react in ways that slow the CapEx cycle while crowded momentum positioning remains vulnerable. Nevertheless, the signal from the internals is clear. Beneath the volatility this looks less like a market rolling over, and more like one that is confirming an early cycle economic expansion. Thanks for tuning in. I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

Fear is expensive. In 2025, manufacturers delayed billions in capital projects because anxiety, not data, drove business decisions.But 2026 is different. Tax incentives expire mid-year, borrowing costs are down, and the hard data shows CapEx accelerating at 3-4%. The companies acting on facts while others remain frozen are the ones positioned to gain market share, capture expiring tax benefits, and pull ahead.This episode comes to you live from the A3 Forum 2026, where the message is clear: 2026 isn't about waiting for certainty. It's about preparing for complexity with multiple strategies, acting on hard economic data, and recognizing that technology will solve the labor shortage. You'll hear why geopolitics can no longer be ignored and why every manufacturing company needs dedicated monitoring and scenario-based planning to navigate constant disruption. We dig into why America's $1+ trillion manufacturing investment boom is creating career opportunities that rival the tech industry and why the outdated narrative around manufacturing jobs is costing the industry the next generation of talent. Plus, we explore how automation and robotics are becoming the central solution for critical challenges and how theme park robotics taught the industry the power of asking “how” instead of “no”.In this episode, find out:Why 2026 is transitioning from a year of uncertainty to a year of complexityHow to become a value-added partner instead of a transactional sellerHow America's $1+ trillion manufacturing investment is rebuilding domestic capabilityWhy manufacturing careers now offer competitive tech-level salariesWhy 92% of manufacturing CEOs prioritize smart manufacturing as their top growth strategyThe impact of expiring tax incentives on CapEx decision-making urgencyWhy AI has shifted from hype to practical implementation questionsHow theme park robotics pioneered human-robot collaboration and safety standardsWhy the answer should be "how" instead of "no" when facing unconventional challengesEnjoying the show? Please leave us a review here. Even one sentence helps. It's feedback from Manufacturing All-Stars like you that keeps us going!Tweetable Quotes:“We are in a manufacturing revolution, but most people don't realize it yet. More importantly, America is starting to learn how to rebuild and manufacture its own goods. We are starting the process to build and AI is a tool that will help close that chasm.” – Bob Little“If 2025 was marked as a year of uncertainty, I think we are now far enough into the process to recognize that it's transitioning to a year of complexity in 2026. You have to be prepared for a variety of different scenarios. You have to treat it almost like war gaming, if you think about it.” – Alex Chausovsky, “92% of manufacturing CEOs interviewed by Deloitte said smart automation or smart manufacturing...

Gary Vaughan from Daily Stock Picks returns to talk Nvidia earnings and other tech names (0:30) Tesla's evolution; 3 energy names; fundamentals vs reality (5:50) Daily investing and trading process (15:00) Stock and ETF portfolio as a large cap tech investor (24:50) Sandisk - an almost buy (34:00) Your timeframe matters (41:30)Show Notes:Stock Pickers Better Know When They're Going To SellMore Volatility Ahead In This AI Bull MarketWhy Lumentum Wins Over Coherent (For Now)Episode transcriptsFor full access to analyst ratings, stock quant scores and dividend grades, subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium at seekingalpha.com/subscriptions

Ahmed Riesgo thinks the Supreme Court decision around tariffs is a long-term good for the market. He covers fears in the market around AI replacing jobs and disrupting sectors, arguing that such a shift without creating new jobs would be “ahistoric.” The dual contentions of the market, that AI capex is too high and that AI is going to take over everything, cannot both be real at the same time, Ahmed says – and he suspects that neither of them are quite real.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Two overlooked “levers” helped Kent Ritter scale past 1,000 multifamily units—and most operators have never even thought of them. One helps you keep tenant turnover low, slashes your CapEx costs by 30%, and keeps your cash flow flowing. The other allows you to build properties for cheaper, do less capital raising, and get on the local government's good side. Even if you've heard of these tactics, you probably haven't tried them. Today, Kent Ritter from Hudson Investing discusses two strategies most operators overlook: in-house property management and public-private partnerships (P3s). First, Kent gives one of the best arguments for self-managing your assets: it keeps tenants for longer, creates more durable cash flow, and has massively lowered his expenses. Plus, he shares a new AI tool that is speeding up leasing and keeping his staff costs near rock-bottom. Next, the $2,000,000+ benefit Kent's team is receiving from public-private partnerships (P3). These P3 partnerships allow him to build with less pushback, raise capital faster (and easier), and bring positive change to the cities he's investing in, further pushing up his property values. Insights from today's episode: The true cost of an average property manager and why Kent switched to in-house Receiving millions in incentives from local governments with public-private partnerships How to save 30%+ on your CapEx costs by simply putting your own people in place  Why your property isn't performing as well as you thought it would (you can fix this) Property management tech to use (and avoid) and a new AI tool Kent highly recommends  How to pinpoint the best public-private partnerships and which towns want you to build  — Connect with Kent on LinkedIn Invest with Hudson Investing Follow Kent on Instagram Ritter on Real Estate Podcast  EliseAI Recommended Resources: Accredited Investors, you're invited to Join the Cashflow Investor Club to learn how you can partner with Kevin Bupp on current and upcoming opportunities to create passive cash flow and build wealth. Join the Club! If you're a high net worth investor with capital to deploy in the next 12 months and you want to build passive income and wealth with a trusted partner, go to InvestWithKB.com for opportunities to invest in real estate projects alongside Kevin and his team.  Looking for the ultimate guide to passive investing? Grab a copy of my latest book, The Cash Flow Investor at KevinBupp.com.  Tap into a wealth of free information on Commercial Real Estate Investing by listening to past podcast episodes at KevinBupp.com/Podcast.

Why is iterating hardware so difficult and what would we do if it came time to start a business.In Episode #515 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Clayton Christensen's 'The Innovator's Dilemma' book, why incumbents like IBM and Blockbuster struggled with disruptive shifts, how spin-outs can help large firms explore new markets, whether today's tech giants (NVIDIA, Amazon, Alphabet) are genuinely pivoting faster than past eras, the trap of single‑thesis bets (e.g., x402 via Coinbase/Circle), the difference between wealth and money via Paul Graham's classic essay, my slow‑ship shift toward building something around livestreaming/value-for-value/OpenClaw-style agents, Juan's practical plan to buy and streamline existing local service businesses and the enduring challenge of measuring value in a world awash with AI-generated content. No boostagrams but we do appreciate the streaming!Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline:(00:00:00) Intro(00:00:36) The Innovator's Dilemma book(00:05:20) From hardware to software: DiSASSter(00:10:58) CapEx arms race: Nvidia up, Apple lagging(00:15:04) Incumbents can't buy their way out every time(00:19:13) Is AI truly disruptive? Capital, energy, and hype checks(00:24:50) Business cycles repeat: pivots, exits, and getting left behind(00:29:34) Investing today: concentration, tech dominance, and copper(00:34:05) Investing is prediction: outcomes vs decisions(00:38:02) Finding exposure: beware tiny bets inside behemoths(00:41:01) Boostagram Lounge and supporter shout-outs(00:42:04) Micropayments, value, and streaming money(00:45:19) Why Lightning may not fit continuous payments(00:49:53) Two paths: analogue community vs full-tilt AI grind(00:53:41) A niche edge: 'human-made' as a selling point(01:03:31) A creator's plan: livestreaming with OpenClaw automation(01:08:02) Work futures: lifestyle businesses and human uniqueness(01:14:58) Zero-to-one vs sustainment: knowing your role(01:20:04) Juan's near-term play: buy, streamline, and bundle SMBs(01:23:40) Wrap-up and sign-off Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReUTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:Boostagram: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4tNvJGE David Bahnsen opens Dividend Cafe after a volatile week marked by a weaker-than-expected GDP report and a Supreme Court ruling striking down President Trump's tariff rationale under the Economic Emergency Act (with a deeper tariff discussion coming Monday). His core thesis: disinflation is likely in 2026—and it may not feel positive. He clarifies the difference between inflation (rising prices), disinflation (slower price increases), and deflation (falling prices). Bond markets are signaling softer expectations, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.07% and five-year inflation breakevens around 2.4%, suggesting modest real growth ahead. Recent GDP registered about 1.4% annualized, distorted in part by a government shutdown, while core PCE inflation is roughly 3% year-over-year versus 2.9% a year ago. Bahnsen expects services-driven disinflation, particularly as rent measures catch up to real-time data. However, that may not improve affordability given tight housing inventory and a frozen resale market. He also warns that business investment is overly concentrated in AI and data centers—echoing the fracking-era CapEx surge—while broader investment remains subdued. Risks to growth include a weak labor market with low hiring, a personal saving rate near 3.4% (raising the chance tax refunds rebuild savings instead of fuel spending), and muted bank lending despite lower rates. 00:00 A wild news week 01:48 Cutting through economic spin 03:23 Why 2026 disinflation may disappoint 04:36 Bond market signals 07:16 GDP and data distortions 10:49 Services-led disinflation 14:05 Concentrated CapEx risk 16:38 Labor, savings, and lending 20:09 Tariffs and demand drag 22:24 What to watch next Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Andrew Almeida reviews the PCE report released Friday morning, along with the GDP report. He thinks the reports push any potential rate cuts to the “back half of the year.” He is positive on markets, citing AI capex as a factor in his optimism. He compares mid caps to small caps, and thinks there are “better quality” companies in the former. He expects companies receiving the AI capex to be the next topic under scrutiny in markets.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Rent increases in Quebec just got a major overhaul for the first time in decades, and this renewal season is the first real test. In this episode, Axel Monsaingeon sits down with Cory Friedman to break down what changed, what stayed the same, and where landlords and operators can get burned if their bookkeeping is not airtight. You will learn how the new framework uses a three year rolling CPI average, how capital expenses can now play a bigger role in allowable increases, and why taxes and insurance only help you when they rise faster than CPI. Cory also explains the real world problem behind the reform, the TAL backlog, and why today's leasing market makes renewals more strategic than ever. If you manage multifamily in Quebec, this is the renewal playbook to stay compliant, protect cash flow, and avoid expensive turnover.   Topics & Timestamps

New York legally committed to generating 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and 100% carbon-free power by 2040. Nearly a decade later, the state is way behind schedule.In the first episode of Modo Energy Presents, our new series of video documentaries, we examine why building renewable energy in New York is so difficult - despite strong political support and ambitious targets.We explore:Transmission bottlenecks between upstate and downstate.The NYISO interconnection queue, now holding ~27 GW of projects.Why 90% of proposed projects never reach commercial operations.Interconnection costs that can account for 60% of total project CapEx.Offshore wind policy uncertainty.Capacity market dynamics that favour dispatchable generation.And why battery energy storage economics differ from ERCOT and California.Featuring Peter Berini, Director of Industry at Modo Energy, this episode compares New York's “cluster study” interconnection model with ERCOT's faster “connect and manage” approach - and asks whether structural reform is necessary to hit renewable targets.A Modo Energy production.Music licensed via Artlist.Stock footage licensed via Pond5 (via Everly).This documentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

New York legally committed to generating 70% of its electricity from renewables by 2030, and 100% carbon-free power by 2040. Nearly a decade later, the state is way behind schedule.In the first episode of Modo Energy Presents, our new series of video documentaries, we examine why building renewable energy in New York is so difficult - despite strong political support and ambitious targets.We explore:Transmission bottlenecks between upstate and downstate.The NYISO interconnection queue, now holding ~27 GW of projects.Why 90% of proposed projects never reach commercial operations.Interconnection costs that can account for 60% of total project CapEx.Offshore wind policy uncertainty.Capacity market dynamics that favour dispatchable generation.And why battery energy storage economics differ from ERCOT and California.Featuring Peter Berini, Director of Industry at Modo Energy, this episode compares New York's “cluster study” interconnection model with ERCOT's faster “connect and manage” approach - and asks whether structural reform is necessary to hit renewable targets.A Modo Energy production.Music licensed via Artlist.Stock footage licensed via Pond5 (via Everly).This documentary is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

The CapEx holiday of the 2010s is officially over. After a decade of stagnant infrastructure investment, we've hit an inflection point with US manufacturing finally pulling out of a three-year slump. In January 2026, the PMI moved above 50%, signaling that customer orders are finally outpacing production—a leading indicator that the broader economy is heating up.In this video, we move past the headlines to see which companies are actually bucking the trend of normal seasonality. From diversified IDMs like Microchip and TI seeing sequential increases to fabless leaders like Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) taking market share, the recovery is broadening out. Whether it's grid infrastructure through specialists like Littelfuse or the high-voltage data center architecture of the future, the auto and industrial end markets are finally signaling a return to growth.Join us on with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-form

Donate (no account necessary) | Subscribe (account required) Join Bryan Dean Wright, former CIA Operations Officer, as he dives into today's top stories shaping America and the world. In this Listener Q&A episode of The Wright Report, Bryan previews President Trump's latest Five Bucket Strategy wins, including massive Japanese investment in U.S. industry, surging factory output, cooling inflation, falling rents, and strong signs that deportations are not harming the economy. He then tackles tough questions about Gaza reconstruction, Jeffrey Epstein's alleged intelligence ties, and whether the United States is on the brink of war with Iran. Bryan lays out the growing U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, what a strike could look like, and why he believes any conflict would focus on regime weakening, not occupation. The episode also explores behind-the-scenes negotiations in Cuba involving Raul Castro's grandson, a brewing constitutional clash with federal judges over deportations, and viral fear claims about an al-Qaeda cell inside America. Bryan closes with practical guidance on how to prepare for uncertain times and encouraging new medical research offering less invasive treatment options for recurring prostate cancer.   "And you shall know the truth, and the truth shall make you free." - John 8:32     Keywords: February 19 2026 Wright Report, Five Bucket Strategy Japan investment Georgia Ohio Texas, factory output CAPEX core capital goods, deportations rents falling housing starts, Gaza Peace Board Trump, Jeffrey Epstein Israeli spy rumor AI image, war with Iran USS Abraham Lincoln Gerald Ford buildup, Operation Midnight Hammer comparison, Cuba Raul Castro Jr Rubio negotiations, Paula Xinis Kilmar Abrego Garcia deportation ruling, Shawn Ryan Sarah Adams al Qaeda cell claim, emergency preparedness Ready.gov kit, focal therapy prostate cancer London study

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze how AI inferencing and custom chips are reshaping the cloud power structure.Highlights00:05 — 2026 is off to a booming start. One of the numbers we saw was that Amazon is committed to spending $200 billion in CapEx in calendar 2026. That will be, by far, the largest CapEx expenditure in a single year that any company in any industry has ever made. So, truly some monumental, groundbreaking stuff going on here. It shows the size of the opportunity.01:11 — Now that total, Jassy said a few times, is for the whole Amazon Corporation, but he said the vast majority — the lion's share — will go to AWS. So I took a little bit of liberty with this and figured that the overall for the whole company is almost $550 million in CapEx every single day. So I figured the portion of that — about 90% for AWS — is about $500 million a day being invested in the CapEx capabilities for AWS to pursue this enormous opportunity.02:23 — Certainly the AI boom is funneling a huge amount of this, but they've also got this core strength. And he talked about how some companies investing in AI are also then pairing that up with increased non-AI workloads. In particular, on the AI side, he said inferencing is becoming huge.03:05 — He said their chip business is at a $10 billion annualized run rate for AWS. He said every tech company in the world is desperately trying to get specialized, customized chips. AWS and Amazon are increasing their investment in their own chip business. He thinks that down the line, especially as the inferencing category really kicks in, this is going to be a huge boost for them.04:51 — But overall, I think this is a tremendous display of courage and confidence on the part of Jassy and Amazon to again invest more in CapEx than any company in any industry has ever done, because he sees if we do this, this incredible market is going to be coming, and we at Amazon and AWS have the best possible chance of getting more than our share of it. Visit Cloud Wars for more.

Rafael Peña, Socio fundador olea gestión, analiza la última hora de los mercados bursátiles. También comenta las últimas actas de la FED. “Llevamos unas semanas en las que todo lo que hace la FED se analiza con mucho detalle”, afirma el invitado. Apunta, además, que “el peor escenario que manejamos en 2025 sobre la inflación no se está produciendo” y que hay que ver que “supone el cambio de gobernador”. Las actas señalan la gran divergencia que hay entre sus miembros a la hora de llevar a cabo los recortes de tipos. Por un lado, el documento explica que “hay miembros que realizar ajustes a la baja podría ser lo recomendado” mientras que otros explican que “sería apropiado mantener estables los tipos de interés, al menos durante un tiempo”. El Socio fundador olea gestión analiza el movimiento del petróleo, teniendo en cuenta el conflicto entre Estados Unidos e Irán, el consumo en el país norteamericano y la situación en Europa. “En Estados Unidos, el crecimiento viene soportado por el Capex, por la inversión de las empresas”, afirma el invitado. Asegura también que “no es un ciclo de consumo, el crecimiento viene dado por ese Capex”. Sobre la situación entre Irán y el país norteamericano, el experto explica que parece que “hay movimientos militares y pruebas que van hacer de forma conjunta”. ¿Cómo perciben desde la firma la fiebre de la inteligencia artificial y cómo afecta esta a sus inversiones? “Nuestro mandato de preservación de capital y el objetivo de rentabilidad del 5% no nos hace buscar el próximo unicornio”, asegura el experto. Además, apunta que para él hay dos ideas claves: por un lado, cree que el mercado “está rotando para ver quienes son los perdedores en esta gran inversión en el capex” y “está analizando muy de cerca la utilidad de la inversión”.

Shaun Heinrichs, President and CEO of 1911 Gold Corp (TSXV: AUMB) (OTCQX: AUMBF), joins me to for a comprehensive visual exploration and development update for advancing their True North Project, which includes a permitted mine and mill complex located on the Company's 100%-owned Rice Lake Gold property, spanning  61,647 hectares within and adjacent to the Archean Rice Lake greenstone belt in Manitoba, Canada.   Shaun outlines how 1911 Gold believes its land package is a prime exploration opportunity, on a brownfield site, with the potential to develop a mining district centered on expanding resources and eventually moving back into the development of the past-producing True North complex.  In addition to the permitted mine, there is a 1300 tpd permitted mill in place, which is expandable to 2250 tpd, which would have access to cheap hydroelectric power, and there is a permitted tailings area.   We unpack the key metrics from the Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), released to market on February 10th.  Shaun also highlights that this PEA doesn't include any of their drilling for the last 2 years, or the drilling they are doing this year, and is modeled off only a portion of the prior 2018 resource estimate.  Towards the end of this year the Company will be releasing an updated Resource Estimate incorporating the last few years of drilling, and then an updated PEA incorporating that larger resource model.   The initial PEA released this month outlines a robust gold mining operation utilizing the fully built and permitted infrastructure, including shafts, underground workings, and the processing and tailings management facility. 1911 Gold has estimated the infrastructure replacement value as being in excess of $400 million. The plan targets steady-state production of 58,114 ounces per annum with a mine life of 11 years.   PEA Highlights:   Robust Economics (After-tax):  At a long-term gold price of US$3,000 per ounce (“oz”) there is a Net present value (“NPV”) (5%) of $391 million, internal rate of return (“IRR”) of 105%, and a payback period of 2.2 years At a constant gold price of US$4,800/oz, the NPV(5%) grows to $998 million, with no calculated IRR due to no years with a negative cash flow, and an almost immediate payback period of under 1.0 year. Fully Permitted, Low Capital Project: Initial capital expenditures (“Capex”) of $59.2 million, utilizing the currently built and permitted payable infrastructure. Additional Capex of $46.7 million during the first 2 years of ramp-up. Processing: Average diluted mill head grade of 4.32 grams per tonne gold (“g/t”, “Au”) with gold recoveries of 93.5% over the LOM. Cash Costs and AISC: Producing gold at a cash cost of US$1,390/oz and all in sustaining cost (“AISC”) of US$1,897/oz. Near-Term Production: Production due to start in the first half of 2027 with test mining and a bulk sample planned for the second half of 2026. Production Growth: 1911 Gold has identified excellent potential to increase production by developing recently discovered zones such as San Antonio Southeast, San Antonio West, and Shore which are adjacent to existing infrastructure and not included in the study, in addition to regional targets.   This led us into the ongoing aggressive exploration program underway at surface for shallow high-grade targets as well as at depth, at their 2 new discoveries: the San Antonio West and San Antonio Southeast. The ongoing drilling is expanding the known resources of around 1.1 million ounces of gold in all categories.   With regards to regional targets, there was a 2,200-metre (“m”) diamond drill program completed in December at the Ogama-Rockland gold deposit, located approximately 27 kilometres (“km”) southeast of the True North Gold Project. One surface drill rig was mobilized and commenced drilling on December 12, 2025, and focused on resource expansion and confirmation drilling, with a separate resource update due out from this area later this year.   If you have any questions for Shaun regarding 1911 Gold Corp, then please email them into me at Shad@kereport.com. In full disclosure, Shad is a shareholder of 1911 Gold at the time of this recording and may choose to buy or sell shares at any time.   Click here to follow the latest news from 1911 Gold Corp   For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:   The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/ Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/     Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security. Investing in equities and commodities involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.

The Mag 7 have committed over $700 billion to AI infrastructure, but the companies building the models may never capture the value. Thank you to our sponsors: Adaptive Security Fuse: The Energy Network The BLS just quietly revised away 862,000 jobs, and real-time inflation trackers now peg price growth below 1%, less than half of what official figures report.  If the Fed is steering monetary policy with stale data, investors need to ask what else the models are getting wrong.  At the same time, the Mag 7 have committed more than $700 billion to AI infrastructure, with Anthropic alone projecting $1 trillion in revenue within five years. Is that conviction or the early stages of a debt cycle nobody is pricing?  And then there is the institutional side of crypto: BlackRock's BUIDL fund just landed on Uniswap with $2.4 billion in assets, Apollo acquired $90 million in Morpho tokens, and AI agents are already settling micropayments in stablecoins.  Austin Campbell, Ram Ahluwalia, and Christopher Perkins sit down with Truflation's CEO Stefan Rust to ask whether the numbers we trust are telling us the truth. Hosts: ⁠Ram Ahluwalia⁠, CFA, CEO and Founder of Lumida ⁠Austin Campbell⁠, NYU Stern professor and founder and managing partner of Zero Knowledge Consulting ⁠Christopher Perkins⁠, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund Guest: Stefan Rust, Founder and CEO of Truflation Links: Unchained:  BlackRock Just Chose Uniswap. The Market Didn't Care. Here's Why. Apollo Moves Into DeFi Lending With Morpho Token Deal UNI Spikes on BlackRock DeFi Move, Then Gives It All Back Macro: NBC: U.S. had almost no job growth in 2025 PBS: Inflation measure falls to nearly five-year low as gas prices fall and housing costs cool Crowdfund Insider: Secretary Of The Treasury Scott Bessent Calls Out Truflation's Inflation Numbers At Senate Banking Hearing AI CapEx: Amazon, Google And Others Are Pouring $700 Billion Into AI CapEx, Top Analyst Explains Why This Makes It 'Hard' To Bet Against Nvidia CIO: Data center capex to hit $1.7 trillion by 2030 due to AI boom Reuters: OpenClaw founder Steinberger joins OpenAI, open-source bot becomes foundation Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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2026 has seen US tech giants throwing enough capex at AI infrastructure to fund a small country. Amazon has guided capex that is roughly half of South Africa's entire GDP! But with fracture lines appearing in the AI landscape, is the ROI really justifiable? And if not, will Big Tech even feel it, or will someone else be left to foot the bill? In this episode of Magic Markets, The Finance Ghost and Mohammed Nalla explore the dangerous games that giants like Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft are playing, exhausting their free cash flow on data centres and AI projects with a potential half-life of an overripe avocado. Alphabet is borrowing money from a hundred years down the line. Is that the sign of the top? And if not, then what is? Today's Topics: A reminder of the US railroad bubble and how AI stacks up in comparison The market is punishing Microsoft and Amazon for deteriorating free cash flow margins The disruption to the valuation of the SaaS giants like Adobe and Salesforce  Free cash flow margins across various Big Tech names and how this has changed over time  Are the hyperscalers too big to fail, or could things go that badly? Get in touch: The Magic Markets Website @MagicMarketsPod, @FinanceGhost, and @MohammedNalla (all on X) Pop us a note on LinkedIn Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor. Chapters (00:00:00) - Introduction & A Technical Glitch(00:01:15) - Big Tech's AI Capex Pig(00:02:45) - Is AI Eating the World?(00:04:15) - Why Meta is Spending 100% of its 2026 Cash Flow on Capex(00:05:41) - The Absurdity of Alphabet's 100-Year Bond(00:06:50) - Why Salesforce and Adobe are Under Fire(00:08:15) - The Cyclical Capex Pig: TSMC's Struggle with the Foundry Model(00:10:30) - Microsoft: From Enterprise Software to Risky Infrastructure(00:12:15) - Amazon: Reinvesting Profits That Haven't Happened Yet(00:13:50) - The Canary in the Coal Mine: Oracle's Credit Stress and CDS Spikes(00:15:30) - Too Big to Fail? The Contagion Risk of a Tech Infrastructure Bubble(00:18:15) - ASML's Dilemma: European Regulation and the Tax on Unrealised Gains(00:20:45) - How 2026 AI Spend Matches the 19th Century Railroad Bubble(00:23:00) - "Vibe Coding" and Disruption: Can AI Replace the SaaS Giants?(00:24:47) - Conclusion

The Dow at 50,000 made headlines and even drifted into political theater, but beneath the surface this market is clearly split into two very different trades. The QE rotation continues to power industrials, energy, materials, utilities, and the equal-weight S&P, while the AI trade has stalled, particularly in software, as valuations reset and narratives swirl around CapEx, disruption, and whether the infrastructure cycle has peaked. In this episode, Mark and Matt break down the technical structure behind the divergence. They explain why the S&P continues to stall near 7,000 while RSP trends higher, what the MACD is actually signaling about momentum control, and why strong earnings and record profit margins are not the source of recent weakness. The feature segment then tackles the biggest AI questions investors are wrestling with right now and shifts toward the longer-term labor implications that could reshape the economic landscape.

Today, we discuss the ongoing "AI Overlay" trade, note another AI-related company that is not a hyperscaler, but is set to spend up to USD 200 billion on capacity expansions in coming years. Elsewhere, we discuss the strength of US treasury and Japans' government bond markets and whether this is contributing to pressure on precious metals. As well, we ponder whether both the US dollar and yen might strengthen against the other major currencies and the next keys for sterling direction. Today's pod features Saxo Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen and is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links discussed on the podcast and our Chart of the Day can be found on the John J. Hardy substack (within one to four hours from the time of the podcast release). Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro and outro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

What happens when a world-changing technology attracts trillions of dollars in investment and how do you avoid being on the wrong side of the boom?On this episode of the Women's Money Wisdom podcast, Melissa Joy is joined by Kai Wu, founder and chief investment officer of Sparkline Capital, for a thoughtful, data-driven conversation about AI and its real investment implications.Rather than focusing on hype or fear, this discussion centers on capital allocation, specifically what happens when massive amounts of money pour into infrastructure. Using historical parallels like the railroads and the dot-com telecom buildout, Melissa and Kai explore why transformative technologies don't always translate into transformative returns for the companies building the underlying systems.You'll hear what “CapEx” actually means, why AI requires unprecedented spending on chips and data centers, and how today's market concentration around the largest tech companies creates both opportunity and risk. This episode is especially helpful if you've benefited from recent market gains but are wondering about concentration risk, diversification, or how to think more strategically about AI exposure in your portfolio.In this conversation, you'll learn:Why a transformative technology does not automatically mean a great investmentWhat capital expenditures (CapEx) are and why AI infrastructure is so expensiveHow past technology booms rewarded users more than infrastructure buildersWhy highly capital-intensive companies often underperform over timeHow S&P 500 concentration may create hidden portfolio riskWhat “AI early adopters” are and why they may offer overlooked opportunityHow to think about diversification without abandoning innovationWhether you're managing significant wealth or simply trying to make smarter long-term decisions, this episode offers practical insight to help you think clearly — without hype, panic, or binary thinking.Follow Kai and read his research: https://sparklinecapital.comX: https://x.com/ckaiwuLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ckaiwu/The previous presentation by PEARL PLANNING was intended for general information purposes only. No portion of the presentation serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from PEARL PLANNING or any other investment professional of your choosing. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and it should not be assumed that future performance of any specific investment or investment strategy, or any non-investment related or planning services, discussion or content, will be profitable, be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Neither PEARL PLANNING's investment adviser registration status, nor any amount of prior experience or success, should be construed that a certain level of results or satisfaction will be achieved if PEARL PLANNING is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. PEARL PLANNING is neither a law firm nor accounting firm, and no portion of its services should be construed as legal or accounting advice. No portion of the video content should be construed by a client or prospective client as a guarantee that he/she will experience a certain level of results if PEARL PLANNING is engaged, or continues to be engaged, to provide investment advisory services. A copy of PEARL PLANNING's current written disclosure Brochure discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request or at https:...

Thomas Martin thinks the market rotation might be “structural,” with the shift beginning last November. “Clearly, it's a switch to value over growth,” he argues, noting that we haven't seen “estimate destruction” in earnings at all. He is encouraged by AI capex spending, happy that these companies are investing in “themselves,” though he notes that there will eventually be winners and losers. His stock picks include companies that have fallen recently, including Spotify (SPOT), and Uber Technologies (UBER).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Carlos Diez spotlights the stocks and sectors he's watching this year. He likes companies that “make things,” arguing that these will be the least disrupted by AI, and will in fact see a boost from AI capex. Some of the names he's watching include Argan (AGX) and Powell Industries (POWL), which he describes as strong fundamentally with a lot of upside opportunity. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Hur går det för våra guldcase?https://finanskursen.se/ börjar igen den 8 mars 2026. Ansök på hemsidan.Vad har hänt sedan vi först pratade om guldbolagen? Hur ser vi på guldpriset mätt i USD just nu och kommande handfull månader och år?Dessutom: Bubblornas fader Jeremy Granthams senaste bok. SaaS-dödens och TINs ökenvandrings slut? Burry och Molina Healthcare. Samt:2026 BLIR ÅRET MED MAXIMAL ACCELERATION I AI CAPEX.Peakar därmed AI-hajpen på börsen 2026? Hyperscalertoppen ökar från 150B till 650B i capex. Ungefär. Den ökningen i procent slår sektorn aldrig igen. Och sannolikt inte heller ens nominellt (dvs mer än +500B USD på ett år) på minst 10 år. I år peakar AI!

Donal Whelton, Head of Agri at AIB, joins Stuart Childs to discuss the financial situation that Irish dairy farmers are currently in and what challenges they may face and the solutions they may require in 2026. Donal says that the Irish dairy sector is entering 2026 from a position of financial strength. Farm debt levels are nearly half of what they were in 2009. Meanwhile, farm cash balances have doubled over the same period. Overdraft utilisation in dairy is currently at its second lowest in 20 years and despite tighter milk prices this year, the sector overall has stronger balance sheets than in previous downturns. Cost inflation is now the primary financial pressure. Total dairy farm operating costs have risen by 46% since 2020 with the key drivers of this being fertiliser and energy and concentrate feed which is up 56% and now averaging 9 c/L of production cost. Production costs range from mid-30s to mid-50s c/L, creating major resilience differences between farms. Knowing your break-even milk price, preparing 2025 accounts early (especially for tax liabilities), and targeting cost control will be important this year. Finally, Donal offers some advice around being prepared for a year like 2026, he recommends financial buffers such as €500 per cow working capital available at start of year and where debt level is >€3,000/cow, hold a reserve to cover 12 months of repayments.  Farmers should complete simple forward cashflow projections (even in a notebook) to quantify funding needs accurately before approaching banks. Consider financing capital projects or tax liabilities rather than depleting cash. Banks can offer overdraft increases, term loans, interest-only options, or retrospective CapEx funding to help ease any cashflow pressures people might experience however, it is important that people identify pressure early and engage early as cashflow support is more effective when proactively structured than reactively requested. For more episodes from the Dairy Edge podcast go to the show page at:https://www.teagasc.ie/animals/dairy/the-dairy-edge-podcast/ The Dairy Edge is a co-production with LastCastMedia.com

The central development addressed is the disconnect between rising overall IT spending and the declining channel share for MSPs and IT partners. Dave Sobel, in discussion with an industry analyst, highlights a reduction in indirect channel participation—from over 75% to a projected 66.7% in 2026—primarily due to the concentration of AI infrastructure investment among the largest technology firms. These hyperscalers and their associated CapEx do not translate into traditional channel opportunities, restricting partner involvement to areas outside large-scale AI data center buildouts.Supporting data point to a technological industry projected to reach $6.07 trillion in customer spend, growing at 10.2%, compared to significantly lower world GDP growth. However, almost none of the rapid AI-related CapEx from companies like Nvidia and Google flows down to channel partners, who instead rely on client-facing managed services, advisory, and security service work. The increasing complexity of customer demand—such as the shift toward managed security (15% growth) and AI services (35.3% compounded growth)—further pushes MSPs to focus on services surrounding the core product, rather than on direct product resale or thin margin opportunities.A significant operational shift within the channel also emerges: the distinction between “influence” and “execution” partners. Vendor programs increasingly recognize partner contributions outside of transactional resale, such as co-selling, advisory contributions, and services attached before or after the point of sale. This trend is reinforced as platforms move toward “point systems” and indirect revenue attribution, redefining how MSPs measure channel health and partner value in a more complex, multi-partner environment.For MSPs, IT providers, and decision-makers, the key operational implications are clear. Traditional growth through seat expansion is less reliable as hiring softens, and managed services must focus on multiplier opportunities—profitable service revenue attached to each dollar of product sold. Capturing value requires adapting to changing program structures, emphasizing trusted advisor roles, and collaborating effectively with adjacent partners. Near-term investment in understanding and building pre-sales AI and security services, and tracking evolving vendor economics, is essential for navigating the new realities of partner participation, risk allocation, and long-term business health.

If Netflix or Spotify doubled their price tomorrow, would you really cancel—or would you grumble and keep paying? In this conversation, we use subscription services we all rely on to explain a powerful investing concept: pricing power. We'll break down why some companies can raise prices without losing customers, what that tells us about their business models, and why pricing power matters when evaluating long-term investments—especially in an inflation-conscious world.Big Tech is opening the checkbook for AI. Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft are on track to spend nearly $650 billion in 2026 alone, even if it means taking a hit to free cash flow today. We'll unpack why this spending surge is happening, where the money is going, and what it could mean for earnings, valuations, and investors navigating the AI boom. In this week's Market Segment, we break down sector performance across the S&P 500 amid heightened volatility in software stocks, driven largely by renewed concerns over AI's disruptive impact. We also zoom out to examine how AI is influencing industries more broadly, and what a healthy market rebalance across sectors could signal for investors. Plus, we discuss the growing gap between consumer sentiment and actual economic activity and take a closer look at January's employment data to see what it may mean for the path ahead.Join hosts Nick Antonucci, CVA, CEPA, Director of Research, and Managing Associates K.C. Smith, CFP®, CEPA, and D.J. Barker, CWS®, and Kelly-Lynne Scalice, a seasoned communicator and host, on Henssler Money Talks as they explore key financial strategies to help investors navigate market uncertainty. Henssler Money Talks — February 7, 2026  |  Season 40, Episode 6Timestamps and Chapters8:29: Cancel or Complain? Pricing Power Explained31:31: AI at Any Cost?45:57: Market Rotation Amid AI UncertaintyFollow Henssler:  Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HensslerFinancial/ YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/c/HensslerFinancial LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/henssler-financial/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hensslerfinancial/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hensslerfinancial?lang=en X: https://www.x.com/hensslergroup “Henssler Money Talks” is brought to you by Henssler Financial. Sign up for the Money Talks Newsletter: https://www.henssler.com/newsletters/ Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards Center for Financial Planning, Inc. owns and licenses the certification marks CFP®, CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER®, and CFP® (with plaque design) in the United States to Certified Financial Planner Board of Standards, Inc., which authorizes individuals who successfully complete the organization's initial and ongoing certification requirements to use the certification marks.See important disclosures at Henssler.com

In this episode, the hosts explore a $5M remote Wyoming ski resort with epic scenery, zero financials, and huge hidden costs—ultimately concluding it's a billionaire's hobby, not a real business.Business Listing – https://www.land.com/property/230-acres-in-washakie-county-wyoming/24410346/Welcome to Acquisitions Anonymous – the #1 podcast for small business M&A. Every week, we break down businesses for sale and talk about buying, operating, and growing them.Looking to build a professional website in minutes? Try Wix: https://wix.pxf.io/c/6898629/3115214/25616?trafcat=templateHubSpot is the backbone for how businesses scale without chaos. Try them out here: https://go.try-hubspot.com/OeG9Vr

Ben and Andrew react to a killer round of earnings for Spotify and Daniel Ek's final earnings call, including thoughts on Spotify's transformation of the music industry, how a record company oligopoly helped create the definitive tech bundle, and why Spotify's personalization requires an addendum to aggregation theory. From there: The difference between AI spending at Google and Amazon, why the AI buildout should be funded by debt, un-optimized tech companies, and the logic and risks of Amazon's AI future. At the end: Reactions to a viral essay on AI job loss, a note about the Princeton Law Review, an ad man strikes back after Ben's Anthropic criticism, and thoughts on Giannis' investment in Kalshi.

Dan Nathan sits with Dan Ives, head of Technology Research at Wedbush. They delve into Q1 market earnings, guidance for 2026, and the implications on CapEx and stock market reactions. The discussion expands to OpenAI's influence, disruptive technologies, and tech stocks like Microsoft, Meta, and Nvidia. They also cover Ives' diversified roles including his tech research, crypto investments, and his eponymous ETF. The conversation touches on AI's impact on tech and software sectors, the rise of financial services utilizing AI, and the broader implications for future investments and market behavior. Show Notes He's Wall Street's Biggest Showman. Should You Trust Him? (Barron's) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Late rent. "Emergeny" maintenance calls that aren't emergencies. Damage that wasn't there before. Residents who go silent when you need answers and respond instantly when they want something - tenant frustrations are part of real estate.  In this episode of Keeping It Real Estate, Dan Brisse breaks down the most common resident behaviors landlords deal with and explains what they actually teach you about operating real estate the right way. The problem usually isn't tenants. It's owners expecting tenenats to think like investors, then getting crushed when reality shows up.  Dan explains why cash flow is fragile without strong systems, why consistency beats flexibility, why preventativev maintenance and inspections save you money, and why CapEx is never optional. He also covers why scale remove tenant problems - it simply makes them manageable.  If you want to invest and operate with fewer surprises, stronger undewriting, and better systems, this episode will reset your expectations and sharpen your execution. Learn more about Granite Towers Equity Group: www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/contact-us

Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) Hang on – Wild ride here Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! Shakeup in Dietville PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Interactive Brokers  Warm-Up - Silver, Gold and Crypto (oh my) - Need a stock for CTP - Hang on - Wild ride here - Superbowl, Olympics- Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - Shakeup in Dietville Markets - Massive moved during the week - - Bitcoin clipped $60k before rebounding - DJIA tops 50,000 for the first time - Wait until you hear about the CAPex spending! - CAT == 1,100 points on the DJIA in 2026 Superbowl and Superbowl ads - Game review - Any ad stick out? - $10M per ad this year - Half Time with Bad Bunny? - Anthropic busting on OpenAi Last Week! - Massive moved - quick calc showed that about $1T was wiped from market caps in the sell-off, particularly in tech names. - HOWEVER - Friday alone is estimated to have added $1.5T to market cap AI Ripping Through - Plenty of names getting cooked over AI announcements - First it was the software companies - Now there are names in legal and finance that got clocked - Today - Altruist.ai can do tax planning and that hurt companies in financial space Earnings Season Update - Reporting so far: 59% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results. - Beat rate: 76% have topped EPS estimates (vs. 5-yr average: 78% (slightly lower) vs. 10-yr average: 76% (in line) - Magnitude of beats (aggregate): earnings are 7.6% above estimates vs. 5-yr average: 7.7% (about the same) vs. 10-yr average: 7.0% (a bit better) - Nothing great,  like Goldilocks Earnings Highlights - Palantir (PLTR): Reported strong Q4 results early in the week , beating estimates with revenue ~$1.41B (vs. ~$1.33B expected) and EPS $0.25 (vs. $0.23). Guidance for 2026 was upbeat (~61% revenue growth). Shares rallied sharply initially (~7–11% post-earnings), but gave back some gains amid broader tech volatility (e.g., down ~11–22% in parts of the week from peaks). - AMD: Reported mid-week, beating EPS (~$1.53 vs. lower expectations) with solid data center growth (~39%). However, Q1 guidance disappointed relative to high expectations in the AI chip space. Shares sank dramatically — down ~15–17% the next day, with some reports noting up to 20%+ drops at points, contributing to broader chip sector pressure. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG): Reported beating on revenue (~$113.8B) and EPS (~$2.82), with strong core performance. But capex guidance for 2026 ($175–$185B, roughly double prior levels) sparked AI spending worries. Shares dipped post-earnings (down ~0.5–5% initially, flat to lower the next day, with some volatility pulling it below key moving averages). - Amazon (AMZN): Reported after hours on February 5, with mixed results — EPS ~$1.95 (narrow miss vs. ~$1.97 expected), but solid overall. The big negative was a surprise $200B capex forecast for 2026 (well above expectations), tied to AI/cloud buildout. Shares plunged sharply — down ~7–10% in after-hours/extended trading, with Friday moves around -5–8% in some sessions. Recent Tech CAPEX announcements - Amazon (AMZN) — Guided to approximately $200 billion in capex for 2026 (a massive jump from ~$125–131 billion in 2025, with ~80% likely AI-related per analyst commentary). This was the largest single-company figure and a major surprise, contributing heavily to the week's "wild" reactions. - Alphabet (GOOGL/GOOG) — Guided to $175–185 billion in capex for 2026 (roughly double the $91 billion spent in 2025, far above analyst expectations of ~$115–119 billion). Emphasis was on AI compute capacity, servers, data centers, and networking to meet demand for Gemini and cloud services. - Meta Platforms (META) — Guidance from late January (but heavily discussed last week): $115–135 billion for 2026 (up significantly from ~$70–72 billion in 2025, potentially an ~87% increase). - Microsoft (MSFT) — No new full explicit 2026 guidance in early February (fiscal year runs July–June), but recent quarterly run-rate and analyst projections put it around $97–145 billion (with some sources citing ~$105 billion or higher based on Q2 spending trends and signals of continued growth from prior levels of ~$88 billion in FY2025). ------!!!!Combined 2026 capex projected at $635–665 billion (low/high ends) or up to $650–700 billion in some reports — a ~60–74% increase from their collective ~$381 billion in 2025. Market Reaction from all of this.... - Markets were a bit spooked on the Anthropic announcement earlier in the week - software sold off and set a sour mood - Microsoft dumped pretty hard as the amount of spend was higher than anticipated, especially with some slower growth in Azure. - Amazon took a beating on the increased spend they anticipate *(extra by $50B) - BUT: Friday markets rallied as there was realization that the $200B spend by Amazon would seep into the economy and fuel infrastructure spending along with chips, tech etc. Other Earnings of Interest -  Reddit reported fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday in which the social media company beat on the top and bottom lines. - The company said it expects first-quarter sales to come in the range of $595 million to $605 million, which is higher than Wall Street expectations of $577 million. - Reddit also announced a $1 billion share repurchase program. - Reddit gets about $250 million a year from OpenAi and Google to have your data for training their LLMs While we are on the subject - Friday, DJIA hit 50,000 - first time ever! - Up 1,200 point of which approx 350 was from caterpillar and 280 was from Goldman Sachs Hats off to WalMart - Walmart Inc. shares pushed its market capitalization past $1 trillion on Tuesday for the first time ever| - Big transformation over the pst year - Walmart has maintained its appeal to households looking for value, its online offerings are drawing new, wealthier shoppers seeking convenience. Google Bond Offering - Issuing several tranches of bonds, denominated in Stirling - one as long as 100 years - Would you buy that? - The Google parent is set to raise $20 billion from a US dollar bond offering on Monday — more than the $15 billion initially expected — and is also pitching investors on what would be its first ever offerings in Switzerland and the UK. - The latter would include a rare sale of 100-year bonds, the first time a tech company has tried such an offering since the dotcom frenzy of the late 1990s Fat Profits in Dietville - Really interesting sequence of events happening... - Hims launches compounded pill at prices as low as $49 per month - Analysts cite questions on efficacy, legality of pill - Hims' move shifts focus from Novo's strong Wegovy pill launch - Broader obesity market whipsawed as pricing pressure rises THEN.. - Hims and Hers Health shares dive 14% after hours on Friday (Down 25% on Monday) - FDA cites concerns over quality, safety, federal law - The U.S. Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it would take action against telehealth provider Hims & Hers, for its $49 weight-loss pill, including restricting access to the drug's ingredients and referring the company to the Department of Justice for potential violations of federal law. AND.... - Eli Lilly last Wednesday posted fourth-quarter earnings and revenue and 2026 guidance that blew past estimates, as demand for its blockbuster weight loss drug Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro soars. - The pharmaceutical giant anticipates its 2026 revenue will come in between $80 billion and $83 billion. Analysts expected revenue of $77.62 billion, according to LSEG. - Meanwhile, NOVO had a really bad outlook that took the shares down 13% after the report. Japan Markets Soar - Japanese stocks jumped to a record high Monday, leading gains in the region after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landmark election victory. - The ruling Liberal Democratic Party captured a two-thirds supermajority in the 465-seat lower house, public broadcaster NHK reported. - Japan's Nikkei 225 jumped past 57,000 for the first time before paring gains to close 3.9% higher at 56,363.94, while the Topix also notched a record high, closing at 3,783.94, up 2.3%. Employment Report? - Government shutdown is forcing them to postpone again (Which is dumb) - Number due this Wednesday - Maybe because of this:U.S. employers announced 108,435 layoffs for the month, up 118% from the same period a year ago and 205% from December 2025. The total marked the highest for any January since 2009. - At the same time, companies announced just 5,306 new hires, also the lowest January since 2009, which is when Challenger, Gray & Christmas began tracking such data. - Also, job openings fell sharply in December to 6.54 million, to their lowest since September 2020. - Available jobs are down by more than 900,000 just since October. - NO! Ai and advancements in tech have noting to do with this! NO NO NO M&A - Texas Instruments Inc. has reached an agreement to buy Silicon Laboratories Inc. for about $7.5 billion, deepening its exposure to several markets for chips. - Silicon Labs investors will receive $231 in cash for each share of the company's common stock and the transaction is expected to close in the first half of 2027. - The transaction still needs to win approval by investors in Silicon Labs and shares of Silicon Labs surged by 51% to $206.48 after the announcement. Inflation - This helps - PepsiCo (PEP.O), opens new tab will cut prices on core brands such as Lay's and Doritos by up to 15% following a consumer backlash against several previous price hikes, the snacks and beverage maker said on Tuesday after it topped fourth-quarter results. Miran - Moving - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran is leaving his post as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, CNBC has confirmed. - He joined the CEA in January 2025, but had been on leave from that post since last September when he filled the unexpired term of former Fed Governor Adriana Kugler.- He reamins on Fed board No Biggie???? - There are some astonishing cased being reported of Bad AI in the operating room - JNJ's TruDi Navigation System - Since AI was added to the device, the FDA has received unconfirmed reports of at least 100 malfunctions and adverse events. - At least 10 people were injured between late 2021 and November 2025, according to the reports. Most allegedly involved errors in which the TruDi Navigation System misinformed surgeons about the location of their instruments while they were using them inside patients' heads during operations. - Cerebrospinal fluid reportedly leaked from one patient's nose. In another reported case, a surgeon mistakenly punctured the base of a patient's skull. In two other cases, patients each allegedly suffered strokes after a major artery was accidentally injured. Cuba - The main airport has putt out a bulletin that they are out of Jet Fuel - Blackouts and lack of other fuels are creating big problems - No airlines have stopped running at this point, but many will as they cannot refuel - This is a bigger problem for cargo planes (supplies) that may not be able to risk flying to Cuba as they will not be able to get out. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? ANNOUNCING THE WINNER OF THE THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN CUP 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt!     FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS   See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Big Tech spending on equipment and AI appears to be close to $400 billion over the four quarters alone. Are there losers outside the free-spending tech titans? Jason Hall and Travis Hoium join Tim Beyers to talk through the numbers and name two that may be at risk. Jason Hall, Travis Hoium, and Tim Beyers discuss: - Fallout from quarterly reports from Kyndryl (KD) and monday..com (MNDY) and what may be next for both. - Why the capex spending won't slow anytime soon. - Whether the debt-fueled growth at CoreWeave (CRWV) and Oracle (ORCL) is sustainable over the long term. Don't wait! Be sure to get to your local bookstore and pick up a copy of David's Gardner's new book — Rule Breaker Investing: How to Pick the Best Stocks of the Future and Build Lasting Wealth. It's on shelves now; get it before it's gone! Companies discussed: KD, MNDY, GOOG, AMZN, CRWV, ORCL Host: Tim Beyers Guests: Jason Hall, Travis Hoium Producer: Anand Chokkavelu Engineer: Dan Boyd Disclosure: Advertisements are sponsored content and provided for informational purposes only. The Motley Fool and its affiliates (collectively, “TMF”) do not endorse, recommend, or verify the accuracy or completeness of the statements made within advertisements. TMF is not involved in the offer, sale, or solicitation of any securities advertised herein and makes no representations regarding the suitability, or risks associated with any investment opportunity presented. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with legal, tax, and financial advisors before making any investment decisions. TMF assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages arising from this advertisement. We're committed to transparency: All personal opinions in advertisements from Fools are their own. The product advertised in this episode was loaned to TMF and was returned after a test period or the product advertised in this episode was purchased by TMF. Advertiser has paid for the sponsorship of this episode. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠megaphone.fm/adchoices Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our Chief LatAm Equity Strategist Nikolaj Lippmann discusses why Latin America may be approaching a rare “Spring” moment – where geopolitics, peaking rates, and elections set the scene for an investment-led growth cycle with meaningful market upside.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Nikolaj Lippmann: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Nikolaj Lippmann, Morgan Stanley's Chief Latin America Equity Strategist. If you ever felt like Latin America is too complicated to follow, today's episode is for you. It's Monday, February 9th at 10am in New York. The big idea in our research is simple. Latin America is facing a trifecta of change that could set up a very different investment story from what investors have gotten used to. We could be moving towards an investment or CapEx cycle in the shadow of the global AI CapEx cycle, and this is a stark departure from prior consumer cycles in Latin America. Latin America's GDP today is about $6 trillion. Yet Latin American equities account for just about 80 basis points of the main global index MSCI All Country World Equity benchmark. In plain English, it's really easy for investors to overlook such a vast region. But the narrative seems to be changing thanks to three key factors. Number one, shifting geopolitics in this increasingly global multipolar world. We can see this with trade rules, security priorities, supply chains that are getting rewritten. Capital and investment will often move alongside with these changing rules. Clearly, as we can all see U.S. priorities in Latin America have shifted, and with them have local priorities and incentives. Second, interest rates may very well have been peaking and could decline into [20]26. When borrowing cost fall, it just becomes easier to fund factories, infrastructure, AI, and expansion into all kinds of different investment, which become more feasible. What is more, we see a big shift in the size and growth of domestic capital markets in almost every country in Latin America – something that happens courtesy of reform and is certainly new versus prior cycles. And finally, elections that could lead to an important policy shift across Latin America. We see signs of movement towards greater fiscal responsibility in many sites of the region, with upcoming elections in Colombia and Brazil. We have already seen new policy makers in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, depart from prior populism. So, when we put all this together -- geopolitics, rates and local election -- you get to the core of our thesis, a possible LatAm spring; meaning a decisive break from the status quo towards fiscal consolidation, monetary easing, and structural reform. And we think that that could be a potential move that restores some confidence and attracts private capital. In our spring scenario, we see interest rates coming down, not rising in a scenario of higher growth to 6 percent in Brazil and Mexico, 7 percent in Argentina, and just 4 percent in Chile. This helps the rerating of the region. There's another powerful factor that I think many investors overlook, and that is a key difference versus prior cycles, as already mentioned. And that's the domestic savings. Local portfolios today are much bigger, much deeper capital markets, and they're heavily skewed towards fixed income. 75 percent of Latin American portfolios are in fixed income versus 25 percent in equity. In Brazil, the number's even higher with 90 to 95 percent in fixed income. If this shifts even halfway towards equity, it can deepen and support local capital markets; it supports valuation. For the region as a whole, sectors most impacted by this transformation would be Financial Services, Energy, Utilities, IT and Healthcare. Up until now, I think Latin America has been viewed as a region where a lot could go wrong. We asked the reverse question. What could go right? If the trifecta lines up: geopolitics, peaking rates and elections that enable a more investment friendly policy and CapEx cycle, Latin America could shift from being seen mainly as a supply of commodities and labor to far more investment driven engine of growth. That's why investors should put Latin America on the radar now and not wait until spring is already in full bloom. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Sam Altman assures staff that OpenAI has a good week, but is Anthropic definitively growing faster at this point? Is the CapEx spend about to eat ALL of Silicon Valley's free cashflow while Apple sits out the party? And the Crypto.com guy runs the same playbook but now with Ai.com. Sam Altman touts ChatGPT's reaccelerating growth to employees as OpenAI closes in on $100 billion funding (CNBC) How Capex Ramp Up Will Squeeze Google, Amazon, Meta (The Information) Apple is the only Big Tech company whose capex declined last quarter (Sherwood) A New AI Video Model From ByteDance is Making Waves (PetaPixel) Claude Code is the Inflection Point (SemiAnalysis) Crypto.com CEO unveils new AI agents to millions during Super Bowl (CoinTelegraph) From Svedka to Anthropic, brands make bold plays with AI in Super Bowl ads (TechCrunch) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Bitcoin's price hit the 50s this week, but the fundamentals tell a different story. As AI investment explodes above $600 billion annually, agents are already using Bitcoin as internet-native money.

⭐ Connect w/ Coach, Costin & a community of real estate investors: https://www.coachcarson.com/rpm-pod-ep474 ⚒️ Costin's CapEx Planning Spreadsheet:  https://www.coachcarson.com/cap-ex-planning-pod

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.