Podcasts about capex

Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya joins Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist Ridham Desai to break down India's macro outlook, capital flows and sector opportunities.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Chetan Ahya: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist.Ridham Desai: And I'm Ridham Desai, Morgan Stanley's Head of India Research and Chief India Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: Today, the biggest takeaways from our India Investment Forum in Mumbai. From the shifting outlook for India's markets and flows to the sectors driving the next phase of corporate earnings and CapEx.It's Friday, June 12th at 7PM in Hong Kong.Ridham Desai: And 4:30PM in Mumbai.Chetan Ahya: Ridham, the Morgan Stanley's India Investment Forum took place in Mumbai last week, and I was there with you. These events are a great opportunity to speak with investors who come across from the globe to attend. Now that we have had a few days to process the conversations, what stood out to you? What was the biggest shift in investor sentiment that you picked on?Ridham Desai: So, Chetan, I think it's been the case of a continuing story about India. Domestic investors look that they are bullish, and foreign investors continue to stay rather cautious on the Indian markets. We could see that in the overall attendance. In contrast, I think domestic investors were looking for the next stock that they wanted to buy. They were seeking opportunities, and there was a lot of interest in meeting companies.Before we get into markets, let me turn back to you from a macro side. India's growth story remains strong, but relative growth appears to be cooling. This is in contrast to markets like Japan, Taiwan, Korea, and the US. How should investors think about India's macro positioning in that context?Chetan Ahya: So, Ridham, when I look at the macro data in India, they're all indicating a meaningful upside in the growth trend. So I'll just cite two key cyclically sensitive macro data points. One is the banking system credit growth, and number two is the auto sales, particularly the passenger vehicle. So bank credit growth is growing as of the last biweekly data point that we got. It's growing at seventeen point seven percent year-on-year, and car sales are growing at twenty-seven percent in the month of May.But as you were mentioning earlier, the relative growth opportunity is a challenge for India and to just share the numbers on the earnings growth for the first quarter that we saw across the region. So we saw Korea's earnings growth at one hundred and seventy percent. We saw Taiwan's earnings growth at forty-eight percent year on year. Japan at thirty-three percent. The US has seen a growth of about twenty-seven percent year on year.So in that context, when India is reporting thirteen percent growth, it's becoming a challenge for investors to look for opportunities in India relative to other markets. Either they are more focused on the other markets than India. So let me come back to you, Ridham. Staying with the investment implications, India projects stable valuations and strong corporate earnings, but its relative growth advantage has narrowed. How should investors reconcile this contradiction?Ridham Desai: If I go back thirty-five years, as long as we have the MSCI index series, and as far as I have been in this industry, this is the lowest relative multiple that India has traded at. And indeed, growth last year was weak. But if you see QOQ, we have started to accelerate. The broad market earnings growth trajectory has shown a doubling in the quarter that ended March over the quarter that ended December.But it underscores the point you made about the relative growth complex. It's clearly not in India's favor. And a lot of the capital in the world is short-term oriented, and it cares for what growth is gonna come in the next quarter or two. And that's the state of the market right now.However, what I would say is that equities is a quintessential long-duration asset class. In the long run, what matters is terminal growth. I don't really think India's terminal growth has moved much. It remains far superior to a lot of other countries around the world. And therefore, I think this does present itself as a great opportunity for a long-term investor while the markets are digesting this relative growth disadvantage that India seems to have over the next, say, three or four quarters.Chetan Ahya: And Ridham, another theme from the forum was policy action to attract capital. Policymakers announced a number of measures right as our conference ended and they aimed to withdraw withholding tax on debt investors, also providing banks with an incentive to take up more dollar borrowing. How central are these measures to sustaining foreign inflows into Indian markets?Ridham Desai: I think the measures taken by policymakers are very important, probably amongst the most important policy actions this year. The removal of taxation on debt investors will make a difference. The provision for hedging to external commercial borrowings as well as to foreign currency deposits will make a difference.It should boost flows into India over the next twelve months. That said, these measures may not help the equity flows because the equity flows, I think, are going to depend on the relative growth situation. Now, there's only that much India can do to lift its growth. It may accelerate to the high teens. So growth elsewhere needs to decelerate for equity investors to return. Or India needs to see the start of a major IPO cycle because in primary issuances, foreigners do come to buy, and that may change the net picture on FBI flows in the equity markets.But as far as the debt markets are concerned, I think the measures taken last week are going to prove to be quite potent, and India should see the benefits accruing over the next few weeks and months.Chetan, from your perspective, how important is the policy backdrop right now in determining whether India can keep attracting long-term global capital despite more competitive returns elsewhere in the short run?Chetan Ahya: So Ridham, I think the key focus for the policymakers had been with these measures to boost short-term capital inflows to stabilize the currency. There has been a balance of payment deficit. So from that perspective, the short-term capital inflow augmentation effort as you mentioned, has been the correct move. But from the long-term perspective, we think that the government needs to boost competitiveness of the Indian manufacturing. Because in the context in which AI could affect India's services exports, there is a need to augment more export receipts from the manufacturing sector. At the same time, if they improve the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector, it will help India to attract more capital inflows from long-term investors for the purpose of FDI.And the good news is that the government is on it. They are taking a number of measures to boost that competitiveness in the manufacturing. But we think that there is more action needed and hopefully in the intention to improve the balance of payment dynamics and exports from manufacturing sector, we will see more actions from the government in the coming months.Ridham Desai: Chetan, you've also written extensively about the structural capital spending cycle in Asia and India. Can you walk us through the key details here, especially in the Indian context?Chetan Ahya: I think the key story that we are observing, it's sort of more or less global, but definitely very clearly seen in Asia, that there seems to be a super cycle for CapEx as well as industrial activity. This CapEx cycle is effectively driven by spending in four key sectors, and that is AI and AI-related digital infrastructure, energy, defense, and industrial onshoring-related CapEx.Now, as far as India is concerned, we are seeing investments in all the four segments that I just mentioned. In fact, it's seeing a significant amount of activity in the space of energy. And, similarly, we are seeing a lot of policy measures, I mentioned earlier, in terms of boosting manufacturing competitiveness.But at the heart of it is government's effort to onshore industrial supply chain. So India's CapEx has also inflected higher. Having said that, the difference between India and, let's say, North Asia, which is Korea, Taiwan, Japan and China, is that they are also a big player in the export market for capital goods when there is global CapEx cycle upswing happening. Nevertheless, India will see the benefit of this CapEx cycle in terms of its own growth push, as well as improvement in productivity.So Ridham, how would you think about the sectoral opportunity within the Indian markets?Ridham Desai: We see a lot of interest in some of these sectors which you mentioned. But actually, I would like to start off with financials. I see the banks in a very sweet spot. Balance sheets are in pristine condition. The interest rate cycle has troughed, which means margins for the banks have also bottomed and credit growth is finally accelerating. If this CapEx cycle unfolds like the way you are describing it, I think financials will stand to gain the most.And interestingly, the valuations are quite good, both on an absolute as well as on a relative basis. Also, of course, investors can go directly into those sectors which are doing this capital spend. Energy to start with, semiconductors, fertilizers, data centers and aerospace.The only thing to note here is that not everywhere are the valuations attractive enough because in some cases the market has recognized the coming growth cycle and has started to price that in. So we have to be careful about the valuations. But I think financials and industrials are clearly great opportunities in the context of this CapEx recovery that India is likely to see in the coming five years.Chetan Ahya: And additionally, the most requested companies at the summit, Ridham, were consumer sector companies. What do you think investors are looking for at this sector over others?Ridham Desai: So, Chetan, I think from a structural perspective, the Indian consumer is quite clearly the best place to be. In fact, I would say that it's the leverage that India enjoys over the rest of the world.The one point five billion people in this country are split across, say, a hundred and fifty cohorts of ten million each, and each of these cohorts have got different consumption opportunities. So depending on what product or service you're offering to your consumers, there's a market in India, and which in nominal terms is growing between ten and fifteen percent.As we know, last year India accounted for something around seventeen or eighteen percent of global GDP growth, which means depending again on what you are selling to your consumer, India could be between ten and hundred percent of your revenue growth. So India's consumer is something that hardly anybody can avoid.So in summary, Chetan, when I look at it from an investment opportunity, financials, industrials, and consumption, not necessarily in that particular order, are probably the best places for investors to look at. However, IT services, I think could be the dark horse. It's a sector right now which is disrupted or potentially disrupted by AI, and there's a lot of confusion there.But I think as the dust settles on this, it may emerge as one of the most interesting areas for investors to look at. So there's a lot of stuff in India happening right now. I think growth is accelerating. Valuations are looking quite interesting. In fact, the best that they've been in many, many years.Trading performance suggests that investors are not positioned at all. And if things start looking up, then India could be a very good market in the coming twelve months.Chetan Ahya: Ridham, thanks for taking the time to talk.Ridham Desai: Great speaking with you, ChetanChetan Ahya: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy our Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

"You can't be hyperbolic enough" when it comes to AI's impact on the markets and the U.S. economy, says Rebecca Walser, making it difficult to gauge valuations for the industry. She adds that CapEx from hyperscalers clashes with rising energy costs as the U.S.-Iran war lingers on. Rebecca says the way AI is financed needs to change for bulls to have a wider runway. On her stock picks, she likes Reddit's (RDDT) ties to LLMs and robust balance sheet. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

#stockmarket #finance #investing #worldbank #inflation #rupee #rbi #adani #reliance #vedanta #ev #sbi #hfcs #businessnews #nifty50Get today's market updates! The World Bank cuts its global growth forecast amid the Iran war, while US producer prices jump 6.5%. India and the UAE boost energy security, and RBI measures could attract up to $70 billion to support the Rupee. Plus, Reliance and Adani push for rare earth independence, HFCs see record FY26 loan growth, EV capex hits ₹24,000 crore, and PSU banks go on a massive hiring spree!https://shorturl.at/gM97lHow to Use Artificial Intelligence for Investing - Combo of 5 ebooks00:00 World Bank Cuts Global Growth03:11 US Producer Prices Jump 6.5%05:43 India-UAE Strategic Petroleum Pacts09:17 RBI Measures to Attract $70B12:33 India Cuts China Rare Earth Reliance15:24 HFCs Show Record FY26 Growth17:33 EV Push to Absorb ₹24,000 Cr Capex18:40 PSU Banks Add 13,223 Employees

During last week's NYU IHIF, I talked with Ryan Bosch of Arriba Capital because hotel transactions have picked up, but closing deals still takes a lot more creativity than people may realize. Ryan sees a growing performance gap between hotels where owners continually invested in their properties during the last six years and hotels where owners delayed CapEx. Now that gap is showing up in value, refinancing pressure, and whether some owners decide they're better off selling. Deferred CapEx has split hotel performance inside the same markets Owners who continually invested in their properties now have stronger assets Some owners now face refinance pressure and larger cash-in requirements More sellers need a transaction, not another round of market testing Buyers still want "meat on the bone" so they have room for value creation after closing Creative capital stacks and alternative financing help more hotel deals close Thanks to Actabl. Actabl gives you the power to profit. Visit actabl.com. Want the weekly roundup of news, videos, and what you might've missed? Text HOTEL to 66866.

Ben and Tom discuss Oracle's 8% drop on a $40 billion capital raise plan and CapEx ballooning to $90-95 billion against just 6% EPS growth, the ECB hiking rates for the first time since 2023 to 2.25% into a sagging expansion, today's PPI print and 30-year auction, Rick Rieder's case for Fed cuts and fixed-income opportunities, OpenAI weighing drastic token price cuts to fend off Anthropic, and why Google's equity-funded AI buildout raises real questions about ROIC.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Send us Fan MailWhile everyone's been fixated on the SpaceX IPO, Google quietly pulled off the largest equity offering in history—roughly $85 billion—and basically front-ran the entire market to do it. In this episode of The Skinny on Wall Street, Kristen and Jen break down why a cash-printing machine like Alphabet would raise money at all, and why they did it in the most fascinating way possible: a Berkshire Hathaway private placement at a discount, a common stock offering across Google's quirky three share classes, a $40 billion at-the-market program, and the structure that confuses almost everyone—the mandatory convertible.If you've ever nodded along to "convertible debt" but secretly wondered what the hell stock that converts into stock actually is, this one's for you. Kristen (the First Lady of Valuation herself) walks through exactly how a mandatory convert works—why the number of shares you receive is a moving target tied to the share price, how the conversion math plays out from zero to a 25% premium and beyond, and why Google layered on a capped call to claw back even more upside. Along the way, they get into book-runner drama, IPO fee structures, why Tesla loved these trades, and what it really signals when sophisticated issuers are dumping rich equity, rich volatility, and rich call skew onto a market full of bullish retail buyers.The bigger picture? This is the AI build-out narrative wearing a new outfit. With 100% CapEx deductibility on the table and a talent war driving nine-figure pay packages, the smart money is raising as much as it can, as fast as it can—and using the hype to do it on favorable terms. Tune in for a clear, no-jargon breakdown of one of the most interesting capital markets moves of the year. Want to go deeper? Check out our Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals course taught by Kristen Kelley—20 years of Wall Street knowledge, yours for two years.Shop our Self Paced Courses:Investment Banking & Private Equity Fundamentals HEREFixed Income Sales & Trading HERESubscribe to our Substack: https://substack.com/@thewallstreetskinny

Brian Glenn connects geopolitical tensions and energy-driven inflation to broader market moves before shifting to the AI trade. He highlights strong momentum in names like Micron (MU) and rising hyperscaler spending, while noting mixed results in software, including Adobe (ADBE). He also points to Meta Platforms (META) and others raising capital for AI, drawing comparisons to the shale boom as investors begin to demand clearer return on investment.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

SUMMARY DEL SHOW Rebote amplio tras el anuncio de Washington de que “completó” sus ataques en Irán. NASDAQ lidera, seguido por $SPX y $DOW, con yields bajando un poco en modo alivio. Hoy manda macro. PPI esperado en 0.7% m/m y 6.4% a/a, más jobless claims, en un tape que sigue sensible a energía y titulares. $ORCL se desploma por un plan de CapEx agresivo hacia 2027, el sector espacial se recalienta rumbo al debut de $SPCX, $WMT y Wing escalan entregas por dron, y $BABA con $JD sienten presión regulatoria por el 618.

David King from Gulf Wind Technology returns to discuss serial uptower blade repairs, passive load shedding, and data-driven testing. Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly newsletter on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on YouTube, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary’s “Engineering with Rosie” YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us! Welcome to Uptime Spotlight, shining light on wind energy’s brightest innovators. This is the progress powering tomorrow Allen Hall : David, welcome back to the program.  David King: Yeah, I’m so glad to be here. A lot’s happened since the last time I was on, so, uh, this is gonna be great.  Allen Hall : It’s been about a year. Mm-hmm. And last year we were at OM&S in Nashville, and you were talking about root fusion, and this is the insert fix uptower for the blade inserts, right? So we’re having a lot of blade bolt issues, and the inserts are starting to pull out or become loose, and the blades are moving around. A lot of our operators in the States are trying to solve that problem, and they don’t wanna remove the blades and bring anything down tower. They would like to fix it uptower. That’s where your solution came in. How’s that going?  David King: Yeah, so I mean, it, it’s really been a five-year journey for us. I mean, we’ve been doing this- I remember that, yeah … for a [00:01:00] very long time. You know, it started like any process does, with a problem statement. Sure. And we’ve been working through from problem statement, you know, going through process development, going through structural development, going through pilots. Uh, we did a, a huge pilot deployments about three years ago, where those were being monitored. Um, we’re now in a position where we’re in serial deployment, and that’s what’s really exciting. You know, we’re doing about 200 blades a year, uh, of, of serial deployment. We’ve, we’ve done that now, uh, we’re going into our second year of that. Nice. So we’re extremely excited by that. That comes with its own sets of challenges as you scale up. How do you maintain quality? We even touched a little bit on a few of these things last year. Um, but yeah, we’re really excited to be doing that. Uh, we’re trying to keep it, you know, again, process-driven. How do you simplify a process that allows you to scale up appropriately, train people appropriately? A- a- and that’s what we’re really excited about this year, is being able to bring this, uh, so that we’re not, um, you know, basically supply constrained, ’cause there is a lot of demand for this, and still able to maintain a very high level of, of quality as we, [00:02:00] we scale up. Allen Hall : Yeah, and that’s the key to all sort of repairs in the wind industry. You like to do it once and be done with the life of the turbine. Now, so you’re going uptower. You’re drilling some holes up along the blade, injecting those with a resin system, curing it, basically reinforcing what is already there That all makes sense to me. Engineering-wise, that makes sense to me. But a- again, it goes back to the technicians and the training and the deployment of it. Are you starting to train technicians, bring them in, show them how to use the, use the machines and, and get them out in the field so they are ready to go? It, it… ‘Cause it seems like you’re at that threshold now. David King: No, absolutely. So we, we believe in people first, right? Yeah. People at the end of the day make things happen. And so, you know, the best ways to do that is give people the right tools to be successful, and where that comes from is training. That’s a huge part of it. We have a, a certified training program that we run. Uh, it started out as an internal program we were running. It basically has five levels to it. Uh, we’ve now extended that to, uh, enabling, uh, you know, basically [00:03:00] preferred partners to be able to take part in that training, uh, to be able to utilize modular kits, pumps and equipment, to be able to, you know, go out and meet that demand that’s out there, but do so in a way that’s, uh, controlled. Yeah. And so really that comes back to that certified training program. And really, you know, level one is about a lot of your basic safety, procedural base type, uh, you know, making sure people are competent, uh, they’re not gonna get themselves hurt. Right. They’ve got the right personality traits about focus, uh, you know, detail focus and things like that. Yeah. Uh, level two to that program is, is really about, um, basically getting people to a stage in which they can be a, uh, team member. Uh, they’re able to be on a team and contribute to that team in an effective manner, be in the field.  Allen Hall : That’s really important. A lot of-  David King: Absolutely …  Allen Hall : companies miss that aspect of being a team member instead of an individual. Yeah, you have to work with other people. Yeah. It’s, it’s critical.  David King: It’s massively important. Personalities clash. You’ve got to be able to work through that sort of thing. And so that level one to level two is really kind of taking your green horn hat off and putting, “Okay, I, I, I can be on this team and I’m, I’m a, a contributing [00:04:00] member.” And then at level three, that’s your team leads. Those are people that are leading teams. They’re leaders. They’re up and coming. They’ve got a career path, career trajectory. Level four is our mentors. That’s the people that are going out there and that are basically qualified to now actually mentor other people in the field. Allen Hall : Yeah.  David King: And then your level five is train the trainer. How do you grow more trainers so that you’re not constrained on that training factor? And that, that’s kind of how we, we typically run training.  Allen Hall : Uh, and Gulf Wind has the ability to do that. I mean, I’ve been to your facilities, they’re impressive, and that’s one of the limitations for a lot of companies. They don’t have the facilities to train people, and they don’t have the resources you do. That opens up a lot of opportunities. Obviously, you’re in the composite repair business. You have crews out fixing wind turbine blades. Some of the more complex ones is what I hear. I mean, I hear it secondarily, but I assume that’s what’s happening. What are, are the areas that you get called in on to do composite repairs?  David King: We, we really do anything that stops somebody else. Okay. So we wanna be there when there’s a problem where you’re like, “I don’t know where to go next. Uh, this is a big [00:05:00] problem. We’re unsure. Maybe there’s a new technology at play. Maybe it’s, uh, a carbon spar cap. Maybe it’s something, uh…” You know, obviously the root stuff that’s very complicated. Sure. And, uh, it’s just gonna require a little bit more engineering. It’s gonna require a little bit more rigor, and that- that’s where we say, look, we, we can, whether it means testing something, verifying something, training somebody on a process, developing a process- Yeah or just doing something complicated, that’s where we excel.  Allen Hall : Well, that- that’s what I hear from the road is, uh, Gulf Winds here and I think, “Uh-oh. You must have a really serious problem because you’re calling in the experts to do the, the difficult things.” Carbon pultrusions, carbon fabric in, in blades today is such a massive problem because it’s not, it’s not fiberglass. It’s just a lot more to deal with, and some of the loading issues we’re finding and, boy, it’s just all over the place. They need Gulf Winds Technology to, to come on site to give them a hand. Now, a- as part of the growth of the business, and you guys have been growing. Every year I, I see they’re just… it’s just a little bit bigger, a little more [00:06:00] people. I walked on LinkedIn and hiring some engineers and some people to work over the summertime. That’s all great. What’s the structure look like now? How are you trying to organize yourself as a business?  David King: Yeah, so we really break down into three different structures. We have our service division, and that’s, um, putting people out there to solve problems in the field. As simple as it gets, right? It’s like you’ve got a problem, we’ve got the right people with the right solutions, and they’re gonna go deliver, uh, a result. Um, and then we’ve got an engineering division. That’s about developing problems. It also has a lot to do with IP. You know, things like root fusion, that’s a pat- protected technology. Sure. All of our technology, we do a lot of investments in, in, you know, patent protection and IP work, and so that sits inside that engineering division. Uh, it’s how we, we have the smarts of the company kinda sat in there. Uh, it also is what allows us to really get into some of these, uh, kinda juicy problem statements that are a little bit prickly maybe. Uh, and we love getting into those and solving them. Yeah. And then the third and final thing is the composite side of things, and that’s the, the manufacturing. That’s that 30,000 square [00:07:00] foot composite manufacturing facility where we wanna be the best in vacuum infusion. We wanna be the best in prepreg, the best in pultrusions, complex assemblies, and be trying to de- uh, just deliver really high-quality composites to the industry. Allen Hall : Yeah, and you have the equipment to do a lot of testing. And I think a, a lot of operators don’t realize what you have And the knowledge that’s sitting there, when I run into operators across the country that have complicated issues, particularly if they have carbon, I mean, oh my gosh, you, you need to be calling experts here. And if they have issues they haven’t really sussed out, they don’t know, they don’t understand the engineering that went into that blade, they need to be talking to you guys about Why is this blade designed the way it is? How should I approach this? Do I need to be turning my turbines off until I figure out a solution? A lot of times there’s not a lot of resources there because the, the designs are more complex than ever. But on the, on the same hand, I would say they’re not doing a lot of testing of their own materials. [00:08:00] David King: Yeah, and there’s a huge space for that. And which is crazy. Absolutely. Yeah. It’s, it’s, uh, it’s definitely a gap. It is. And we see it as a gap that needs to be filled. Yes. And so that’s where, you know, we, we say you’ve gotta give the engineers the tools to be successful. Sure. And so what are those tools? You know, that could be anything from what does an aerodynamicist need? They might need a metrology scanner. Right. So we do 70 million plus point scans of full blades. We’ve done now a full blade scan and, uh, I think we did it in about an hour, which was a, a new record of how quickly you could get 70 million points on a blade. Wow. And then that allowed- Uptower  Allen Hall : or  David King: downtower? It was downtower. Okay. Okay. It was outside in the field, but it was downtower. Okay. It’s still impressive. So that was a little, little, little bit easier than uptower. Sure. Maybe that’s next. Um- Yeah. But, um, no, and then so what can you do with that? Well, then you can go, uh, really analyze, you know, the performance of that blade. Maybe you can go do something in a wind tunnel with it. So coming back to that toolkit- Yep … an aerodynamicist needs a wind tunnel. We have aerodynamicists, so we have a wind tunnel. Then going on to, like, a structural engineer. What does a structural engineer need? Well, they need their FE tools. They need some good first principle approaches to, to structures. But they also need test equipment. Right. They need to be [00:09:00] able to develop and characterize materials both in static and fatigue. And so we’ve made a lot of investment in those sort of test equipment, uh, so that we can, we can put numbers to things. You know, I think the wind industry needs more data. Less speculation and more data-driven decisions, and the, where that starts is really building up that test base. And we, we believe in this thing called the testing pyramid, and what it is is, like, you’ve gotta characterize the material. That’s where you’re gonna have thousands of samples. Right. That’s your tensile, double lap shear testing, all the basics. Then you do your subcomponents. Add some geometry into that, that- Add some shape. Exactly. Maybe that’s hundreds of samples. And then you’re gonna go on top of that to, like, your full component. And look, we don’t have a blade test stand yet, but- Right … that’s kind of that, that space. And then the final top of that pyramid is go do it in the field, get results- Run it … and then run that back into your design cycles. And I think the more we can do that as an industry, the more successful we’re gonna be as an industry.  Allen Hall : Yeah, and I think a lot of operators don’t think they have to participate in that, and they’re sadly mistaken. And the fact that the industry has grown as fast as it has means [00:10:00] there’s some holes in some of the engineering that maybe they didn’t consider the, the site assessment properly or they didn’t understand some of the manufacturing variability. Now you own this product, you’re gonna have to do some of the homework that maybe the OEM should have done. It’s your site. You own it. And a lot of times I think, uh, as an owner/operator, they don’t realize there’s resources. Like, okay, well maybe do some mechanical testing. Maybe the repairs I had last summer aren’t working out the way that I think. Maybe I need to look at some materials  David King: and see if- And we want you to own your data. Well, that’s exactly it, right? That’s really what it comes down to is like you wanna own the data, know your blades, know your products, whether it’s, you know… I know you’re very, uh, you know, uh, specialized in lighting, really know your stuff. Everybody’s gotta take that same approach. Know your stuff- You need to know it … or go find the experts that know it- Right … and work with them. Yeah.  Allen Hall : Well, at, at this point in the industry’s growth, you realize who’s all percolated towards the top, right? You, you, you see the companies like Goldwind that have the expertise in-house and, and have established themselves as a [00:11:00] knowledge center, as a resource for the US and globally, and there’s only a couple of those spread around the world in that- We as an industry need to be utilizing you more to help us solve problems. Because if I don’t tell Gulf Wind what’s going on, Gulf Wind can’t help come to a solution.  David King: And we find that really, like, just the more you know, you start finding all sorts of new opportunities. Yeah. ‘Cause we almost learn what you don’t know, in a way. You kind of realize that, like, there’s so much more out there. Yeah. And that’s where it gets really exciting. That’s where it’s like you can get these novel solutions, people who take creative approaches. Um, and, and I really think that’s what’s gonna take this industry forward, especially now when, you know, there are some headwinds for wind. And all that means is we’ve gotta get sharper, and we’ve gotta be, uh, more agile. And I think it’s actually almost times like this that create some of the best, uh, behaviors in an industry to, uh, take it forward into the future really.  Allen Hall : Yeah. Wind’s not gonna go anywhere, but it’s being stressed a little bit. And in those stress points, we need to take the time to reflect and to make the industry [00:12:00] stronger. But in order to do that, we need to be relying upon the sources that we have. There are global sources. There are so many resources to touch into. I think you guys are, are doing amazing things. Obviously, being down in your facility, seeing the wind tunnel, just blown away by that. Seeing the mechanical testing, seeing the, the 3D printing of air foils and all that work you’re doing, plus the ability to scan blades, do large scale studies. I remember one was on CMS at the time, thinking, “All right. Somebody’s, somebody’s actually doing the right thing. There’s a study happening so we can understand what’s happening in CMS.” Like, those things need to happen as an industry to grow.  David King: Oh, absolutely. And I know you and I were at WOMA- Yes … quite recently. Yeah. And we heard about that LEP study. Yes. And what a prime example- … of people going out there, getting real life data. Yes. And then, uh, making it accessible so that people can make smart decisions, and again, drive the cost of energy down and make wind successful. It’s, it’s amazing.  Allen Hall : It, uh- Yeah. Yeah, yeah. But the transfer of knowledge is the key, right? And you guys are involved [00:13:00] in looking at some, what LEP will do to improve a blade, but also what leading edge damage will do to erode performance. Those are some of the things that a lot of operators don’t understand. Like, is that blade being in that damaged form even affecting my AEP? It depends on the turbine, I think, a lot of times. But you better be asking the question at least. Talk to somebody who knows.  David King: Yeah. ‘Cause it, it’s really interesting. I mean, you know, I think it so much drives back to that business case for the operator, and they all have their own approaches. And, and really- Yeah you know, most people are repairing LEP when it becomes structural. That’s the- That’s right … that’s the predominant approach. And, you know, I understand that approach very… You know, I, I get it from an operator’s point of view. Um, but yeah, there’s definitely, uh, other things you could do to try and make a, a data-based business decision. Um- Sure.  Allen Hall : Sure. Now, what are some of the cool new things that Gulf Wind is working on, that you haven’t announced to the world yet, but you’d like to announce? I know you’ve been working on things. I’ve seen all the white papers being published. There’s some things- Back behind the scenes, what’s new?  David King: Yeah. I mean, so, you know, you take something like Roof [00:14:00] Fusion, right? Right. Which is a long process to develop. So we, knowing that everything that, uh, you have as an idea is gonna take almost maybe three, four, five years to actually bring to market- Sure … we’re always starting on this constant cycle of development. Right. And so the things- You know  Allen Hall : it’s gonna be five years. David King: Exactly. Yeah. And so, you know, I mean, it’s like the patents on this stuff take three, four, five years to work out. Yeah. And so it- it’s a very important part of the entire process. Yeah. But to, to answer your question, we do have some exciting things both in the aero side, uh, side of the world. Uh, we have been doing a lot of development work around, uh, basically, uh, passive load shedding, so the ability for a turbine, or actually any structure, to be able to react to the wind in a passive manner. Uh, so you don’t need any sort of mechanicals. You don’t need anything, uh, that’s going to break in the field, and the structure itself is able to actually react to the load that’s coming onto it and change its aerodynamic, uh, profile and change its load that it’s experiencing. So you get these… Uh, that’s a very interesting new technology. Yes. Uh, it’s something that we’ve been working on for about three or four years now. It’s now, uh, [00:15:00] getting demonstrated, uh, which we’re very excited about. Uh, we also have some technologies, uh, around new connection types between metal and composites. So this is, uh, something that’s, uh, probably got a lot of, um, application in aerospace, but I think it’s also gonna find its way into wind. And this is just a new way of really trying to fix some of the problematic joints that we’ve been dealing with now for the last few years, but looking forward, not looking backward. Yeah. Right. Sure. Not being retroactive. Right. But how do we do that next generation of roof pushing design, for example? And we’ve got a really exciting method for that, that, uh, is been tested now. We have test results for it, and they look extremely good. Uh, we also are making some major CapEx investments this year into- Sure … new manufacturing equipment. So we have, um, some… I, I would say some, some pretty advanced, um, automation we’re trying to bring to composite manufacturing- Okay … around pre-preg carbon fibers and things like that, which is gonna be very, very exciting I think. Uh, I hope it finds its way into the wind industry. It’ll probably start in other industries. Sure. Maybe kind of this, uh, [00:16:00] subsea, you know, and, uh, and air, uh, space first- Sure … you know, around UAVs, ROVs- Sure … that sort of thing. But I think it’s also gonna have applications in wind, and we’re really, really excited about that. Well,  Allen Hall : that’s good because it, it does seem like wind is downstream of a lot of aerospace things ’cause it does, definitely costs money to develop those, and aerospace is a place where that can happen. However- If you work out all the kinks and you solve all the manufacturing issues, it is directly applicable to wind. David King: And it’s massive volume. The beautiful thing about wind is that the volume, when you get something right and you do it right, you get to deploy technology. Yeah. Yes. You, you get to take it off the shelf- Right … and put it in the world and make it happen, which is, there’s nothing more exciting as an engineer. Allen Hall : Well, I mean, in, in terms of blade manufacturing, how many times have we talked about automating that so we have less things like wrinkles and some ply issues, overlaps, those kind of things where automation would help, but we just haven’t really refined it enough to i- implement it at a large scale in a blade factory. David King: Exactly. And it’s always usually too bespoke, you know? It is. It’s like you solve the problem for the, the 40-meter blade, and now- Right … there’s a [00:17:00] 45-meter blade, and we need all new CapEx. Right. And then it doesn’t, uh, doesn’t scale well.  Allen Hall : That doesn’t scale at all. No. Right. So that’s why they haven’t done it, is because they know the next generation of blade is coming. It’s another 10 meters longer, and that’s not gonna fit in this building, and doesn’t make sense- We’re in trouble … to buy the equipment.  David King: Yeah, exactly.  Allen Hall : Right. So it, it, it’s a- Yeah … it’s a constant evolving industry. Now, I, I had looked at your load shedding patent application or patent. Maybe it came out as a patent. David King: Yep.  Allen Hall : Mm-hmm. Okay. I wanna understand that a little bit since I’m here talking to you now. The load shedding piece was because, uh, you’re in Louisiana, that’s where hurricanes- Come up … every once in a while, if people haven’t read the papers. But the load shedding technology makes sense because now you can deploy wind turbines in places that you otherwise may not do it because of the risk of typhoons, hurricanes, even tornadoes on some level, some odd wind situations. You wanna explain what that technology is? Yeah.  David King: Really what it’s doing is it’s trying to decouple the, uh, turbine’s ability to protect itself from its requirement to maintain power and maintain [00:18:00] control. So if you have something that relies on electrical hydraulics or anything like that- Yeah … it’s gonna be extremely susceptible to failing, uh, when- Yes there’s a grid outage or when you have a battery that fails or, you know, most airplanes require, like, dual redundancy or triple- Triple … triple redundancy because of that very reason, and we just can’t afford to do that in wind. No. And so the innovation then that gets required is you have to have something that’s passive, something where the structure itself has been designed in a way where the laminate is designed in a way where it’s going to not react progressively like a linear fashion as you apply load, right? It keeps bending and bending and bending. Right, right, right. But it’s gonna have quite a sudden reaction to a very particular load case. And so that’s what we’ve been able to do is-  Allen Hall : Okay …  David King: basically construct that laminate in a way where when it, the right load is applied, in this case, that’s the, the hurricane load or the extreme load- Right we can shed that load, uh, completely by the structure simply reacting to the load, and that’s very exciting for wind. It has a lot of other applications ’cause- Sure it does … basically allowing you to hinge composites. We now can- Right … with [00:19:00] composites almost in an origami fashion, hinge them any way we want, which is really, really exciting. Nice. And we’re excited to bring that now to other areas besides just wind and, and wind will be a key one as well.  Allen Hall : Sure it will. Yeah. Wow, okay. That’s cool. I mean, that’s why I follow Gulf Wind Technology on LinkedIn to see all the cool things that are coming out because, uh, if, if you’re thinking about- What’s new, what’s next. There’s probably three or four places, honestly, in the world that I rely upon, DTE being one, Fraunhofer being another, and then Gulf Wind Technology. Like, okay, let’s… So they tram for it here. I… Let’s, let’s see what’s going on this week. That’s amazing. And I, I know that as you guys get more experience out in the field and people will start to recognize the name, it’s just only gonna grow to something even bigger. So that, that’s fantastic. I know you, you spend a lot of time making  David King: this business go. We’re de- definitely very excited about it. Yeah. But with, with growth comes, you know, a, a discipline. Right. You have to be very disciplined. Yes. And so that’s something, you know, we’ve gotta be very focused on. Yeah. That’s where things like that certified training program are important. Yes. It’s where [00:20:00] how we patent things is very important. Yes. How we, uh, you know, kind of set up company structure is very important. So I know we touched on a few of those subjects today. Yeah. But those are really just about trying to be able to maintain quality as we grow. A- and that’s really important to our customers, it’s important to us, and it’s how we maintain the brand. Allen Hall : We gotta get back down to Louisiana. I’m really curious to see what’s happening inside the buildings and see where you’re at, because, uh, I know there’s great things happening there. And I really appreciate the time. Thank you for coming over to Australia. I thought your, your talks and your, your presentation and being on panels in Australia was really insightful to a lot of Australians, because you’re just bringing a different viewpoint into that marketplace. And, and that’s what Gulf Wind does. So I, I appreciate all that effort. And, uh, yeah, we should connect up this summer. Come down and check out what’s going on.  David King: Absolutely. If you’re willing to brave the heat- Oh, no. … you are always welcome. And our aim is that every time you come to that factory, hopefully it’s like a, a whole new world. We wanna surprise you with something new, because, uh, that’s the only way we can demonstrate progress.  Allen Hall : Oh, that’s a deal.  David King: So.  Allen Hall : Okay, great. Well, thank you,  David King: Dave. Great to see [00:21:00] you. Thanks  Allen Hall : for being on the  David King: podcast. Thank you very much.

Brad Gerstner sits down with Gavin Baker and Andrew Fox of Atreides Management, alongside Altimeter partner Clark Tang, to break down one of the biggest questions in tech and markets: how should investors think about the SpaceX IPO?They unpack the major levers behind SpaceX's next phase: Starship rapid reusability, Starlink broadband and direct-to-cell, Elon's emerging AI compute business, xAI's model ambitions, the Cursor acquisition, and the long-term promise of orbital data centers. The group also debates whether SpaceX is becoming a new kind of AI hyperscaler — “Elon Web Services” — and what that means for the future of compute, cloud, and frontier intelligence.Then they dive into the latest model race: Fable 5, Mythos, ChatGPT 5.5, long-running agents, open source vs. frontier models, Nvidia vs. ASICs, the AI CapEx boom, and why the market may still be underestimating the scale of AI demand. Enjoy another episode of BG2!Timestamps:(00:40) Intro — SpaceX IPO in Two Days, Mythos Launches, Taiwan Takeaways(03:05) xAI's Google & Anthropic Deals: Highest Operating Profit Per Gigawatt(13:28) "Elon Web Services" — Nobody Had AI Compute in the SpaceX Model(19:08) Data Centers Are Not Commodities: First-Principles Design(26:01) Orbital Compute Economics: $5B Per Gigawatt in Space vs. $25B on the Ground(29:25) The Most Underrated Variable: What Cursor Does for xAI's Model(35:05) Bull & Bear Case — Can SpaceX Really 8X Revenue in 4 Years?(37:00) Post-IPO Drawdowns, Lock-Ups & How to Size the Position(43:56) Fable 5, Mythos & Why Snapshot Benchmarks Are Broken(51:00) Frontier vs. Open Source: 90% of Revenue Accrues at the Frontier(01:04:11) $1.5T in CapEx vs. $300B in AI Revenue — Does the Math Math?(01:18:13) The Next $1 Trillion: Three Companies, Half the TimeProduced by Edward Schmidt & Dan ShevchukMusic by Yung SpielbergAvailable on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.comFollow:Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcapGavin Baker @GavinSBaker https://x.com/GavinSBakerClark Tang @_clarktang https://x.com/_clarktangBG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod

Get in touch - leave me a messageNo one wants to ship water around the world. That one line says a lot about the next phase of energy storage.In this episode of Climate Confident, I'm joined by Min Tang, Director of International Business at Rongke Power, one of the world's leading vanadium flow battery companies. We get into why long-duration storage is moving from climate tech side-story to core grid infrastructure, and why that matters for decarbonisation, energy transition planning, net zero delivery, emissions reduction, and policy.You'll hear why vanadium flow batteries are not trying to replace lithium-ion batteries, and why that matters. Different problem. Different tool. Min explains how flow batteries can run for more than 20,000 cycles, retain capacity over decades, and support grid-scale black start, the kind of resilience that becomes rather important when grids are asked to absorb more renewables, power more electrification, and stay upright while demand from industry and AI data centres grows.We dig into the economics too: why storage duration changes cost, how electrolyte leasing can cut upfront CapEx, and why local supply chains could become a major strategic advantage. You might be shocked to learn that localisation is baked into this technology because the electrolyte is mostly water. Glamorous? No. Important? Absolutely.

Just ahead of Oracle's (ORCL) earnings after Wednesday's close, Steven Dickens says the company's backlog will be the biggest metric to watch, along with how it converts it all into revenue. How Oracle builds out AI infrastructure and balancing it with future CapEx are also paramount to Steven, though he doesn't see it as a concern. He calls Oracle the "fourth hyperscaler" and sees the company competing against existing giants in Alphabet (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Jacob Sonenshine breaks down how Oracle's (ORCL) $50 billion CapEx plan, including AI chips and data centers, supports infrastructure stocks. He notes limited expectations for spending cuts and warns that share issuance from Alphabet (GOOGL), Super Micro (SMCI), and Meta Platforms (META) weighs on sentiment. He advises waiting for downside momentum to slow before entering names like Microsoft (MSFT) or the broader S&P 500 (SPX).======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Send us Fan MailJim Piazza, Chief AI Officer at Ensono, talked about how legacy mainframe systems fit into the modern AI era and explored the practical strategies large enterprises must adopt to modernize their core infrastructure. A significant number of Fortune 500 companies continue to run their most critical workloads, such as credit card transaction processing, on IBM Z and Power platforms. He categorized the path forward into two distinct buckets: operational modernization, which leverages AI to predict system faults and prevent costly outages, and business modernization, which utilizes AI services to accelerate transactions and enable real-time fraud detection. Organizations looking to modernize can choose between migrating workloads completely to the cloud, translating legacy COBOL applications into modern languages like Python, or implementing hybrid approaches that integrate existing mainframes with distributed cloud environments.Achieving success with predictive analytics and machine learning on these platforms requires a foundation of robust data engineering. Beyond software and talent constraints, Jim also highlighted the physical and economic realities of modern infrastructure. Skyrocketing power consumption from AI workloads has become the primary near-term constraint for data centers, forcing hyperscalers to invest heavily in renewable energy and advanced cooling technologies. Additionally, the lifecycle for GPU and AI hardware is shortening rapidly, driving hyperscalers toward shorter depreciation cycles. While future innovations like silicon photonics promise to materially lower cooling and energy costs, substantial CapEx savings can be realized today by optimizing software to train large models on previous-generation hardware, or by utilizing ensembles of smaller, targeted models.Positioning itself at the center of these shifting dynamics, Ensono operates as an AI-first managed services provider dedicated to modernizing large enterprise customers across both mainframe and distributed environments.

Stocks give up earlier gains, with tech the biggest laggard once again. The homebuilder KBW says can defend margins in the K-shaped housing market.  Plus, Fast Money trader Tim Seymour on the differences he's seeing in today's sell-off versus last week's.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Mandeep Singh, global head of Technology Research at Bloomberg Intelligence, joins the podcast to provide an update on the growing impact of artificial intelligence and other cutting-edge innovations.----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Subscribe Here to the ROI Podcast & other First Trust Market News Website:  First Trust PortfoliosConnect with us on LinkedIn: First Trust LinkedInFollow us on X: First Trust on XSubscribe to the First Trust YouTube ChannelSubscribe to the ROI Podcast YouTube Channel

In today's Cloud Wars Minute, I analyze how a trillion dollars in cloud backlog is driving innovation beyond technology and into corporate finance. Highlights 00:03 — In the Cloud Wars, all sorts of crazy things are going on with the technology, what customers are doing with it, but also in how this whole remarkable time is being funded. I want to talk a little bit today about how Google Cloud and Oracle are choosing to fund this unprecedented market demand and why new possibilities require new ways of doing things. 01:25 — In Oracle's most recent quarter, it reported that its RPO, or Remaining Performance Obligation, similar to backlog, is over $550 billion. For Google Cloud, it had an amazing jump as well in its most recent quarter, ended March 31, $462 billion in backlog, almost double what it had been a year before that. So there's amazing demand, these two companies totaling a trillion dollars. 02:09 — Six months ago, Oracle reached out and said, “No, no, we're going to go to some outside funding, some borrowing, to do that.” But the market reacted with a panic. “Oh my God, nobody's ever done this.” And, you know, "What if they can't pay it back?” So there was a lot of skepticism about Oracle's plan six months ago. 02:58 — Now, a week ago, we see Alphabet step up and say, “Hey, we're going to do some equity financing. We're going to take $10 billion from Warren Buffett and some other places. We need this money. We think it's the best way to pursue funding our own data center expansions, our own CapEx needs, which will be somewhere between $185 and $190 billion.” Oracle's will probably be around $75 billion. 04:37 — Oracle and Google Cloud have risen to the top of the Cloud Wars Top 10 because they brought innovation at levels in technology and go-to-market, how they think about customers, deployment models, and so forth, that have really set the new standard for what's happening in the AI cloud business now. Seeking outside funding to meet this demand shows another way to do it. Visit Cloud Wars for more.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan break down a strange Friday tape: a strong jobs report that sent stocks lower as the market prices out rate cuts — and even flirts with hikes. They dig into the Broadcom-led selloff in semis, Anthropic's call to slow down AI development and what it could mean for the CapEx trade, and Bitcoin getting cut in half at ~$60K alongside the unraveling of the crypto treasury-company trade. Then Guy unloads on the SpaceX IPO and Jamie Dimon's endorsement of the deal, asking whether someone just rang the bell at the top. In the second half, Dan sits down with Jim Brooks, CEO of Team Rubicon, on his path from Navy SEAL to the CIA to the C-suite — and what grit, culture, and leadership look like when you're leading a force of 200,000 volunteers. They close on defense tech, drones, and the future of the space economy. Show Notes Anthropic Urges Global Pause in AI Development, Flags ‘Self-Improvement' Risk (WSJ) Goldman Sachs expects SpaceX's AI revenue to increase 100-fold by 2030 (FT) Morgan Stanley Sees SpaceX's Revenue Reaching $3.4 Trillion in 2040 (WSJ) Elon Musk's near-daily online posts about race are turning off some fans (Washington Post) Musk Leaves Investors Starstruck at Dimon's SpaceX Extravaganza (Bloomberg) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Microsoft Build 2026 announced an end-to-end agentic AI stack. COMPUTEX Taipei confirmed heterogeneous AI infrastructure across ARM, Marvell, Intel, Qualcomm, and NVIDIA. Alphabet raised $80 billion. Cisco Live repositioned the network as the AI platform. Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman break it all down alongside earnings from Broadcom, HPE, Palo Alto Networks, and CrowdStrike, plus the token cost conversation, the edge AI push, and what Palantir and Oracle are saying about proprietary data as the real AI moat. The handpicked topics for this week are: Microsoft Build 2026 Announced an End-to-End Agentic AI Stack: Microsoft shipped MAI-Thinking-1, its first homegrown thinking model, alongside Scout, Microsoft IQ, Project Solara, and a Majorana 2 quantum update targeting a 2029 commercial timeline with claims of a 1,000x reliability gain. Pat describes MAI-Thinking-1 as likely better than Sonnet 4.6 in blind testing and delivering close to GPT 5.5 quality at a far lower cost. Scout is Microsoft's first autopilot agent, anchoring the M365 Agent Suite with Office Pilot Agent Mode and Agent 365. Microsoft IQ serves as the context layer, integrating M365, business data, boundary IQ, and web IQ with GitHub Copilot, Foundry, and Copilot Studio. Project Solara is a new Android-based platform built for agent-first devices across transportation, retail, and hospital settings. Microsoft also added 83 Unix commands to the Windows stack. Dan frames Microsoft's real play as distribution, not frontier model development, noting that the open model ecosystem being pulled into the platform will matter more to CFOs managing token costs at scale. (The Decode) The AI Stack Goes Multi-Silicon — COMPUTEX Taipei 2026 Confirms Heterogeneous AI Infrastructure: ARM's AGI CPU is in production with Google moving its TPU head node to ARM, and adding Oracle and ByteDance as new customers. ARM also introduced a new switch, the TT100, and put the 51T CPO switch on stage. Marvell received a trillion-dollar company endorsement from Jensen Huang, adding $90 billion in market cap on the comment alone. Intel announced disaggregated inference details and Xeon 6+ Clearwater Forest, its first 18A data center processor. Vista Equity and Cambium Capital announced a NeoCloud called Vector Core Compute, with Xeon 6 handling orchestration, Salmonova RUs handling decode, and Blackwell GPUs handling pre-fill. Qualcomm's Cristiano Amon announced the Dragonfly data center brand with Snapdragon C details coming at their June investor day. The WSTS raised the 2026 semiconductor TAM forecast by 90% to $1.51 trillion, with Pat noting the market could hit a trillion dollars if memory is excluded entirely. (The Decode) NVIDIA RTX Spark and the Edge AI Push: NVIDIA coordinated with ARM and Microsoft around the RTX Spark at COMPUTEX, with the shared message being that the future of Windows is here. Signal65's Ryan Shrout asked Jensen directly why NVIDIA wants to be in the PC business, given low margins and diminishing returns. Dan frames the answer in the context of devices increasingly becoming mobile data centers, capable of running models at much greater efficiency than cloud delivery. The edge AI conversation is also directly tied to token cost economics: as intelligence delivery moves closer to the device, the cost per token drops significantly. The jury is still out on whether NVIDIA will meaningfully disrupt the PC market, but its influence over OEMs like Lenovo and Dell that depend on it for data center gives it real leverage over SKUs. (The Decode) Token Economics and Frontier Model Cost Pressure: Dan and Pat discuss a substantive shift in how enterprises are thinking about AI consumption costs. Dan argues that "token maxing," the practice of defaulting to the most powerful frontier model for every task, has now effectively peaked, as bills have come due at scale. Companies paying for tokens in volume are starting to question whether they can afford the prices that frontier models actually cost to deliver. Pat pushes back, saying the dynamic is still present, but both analysts agree that the market is moving toward a model where token selection is matched to the job, with Microsoft's MOE approach and thinking models positioned to help CFOs manage that economics story. (The Decode) Continuum Goes Public at Highest Valuation for an AI Platform: Dan notes that Continuum, the Honeywell-spawned quantum company, went public this week at what he calls the highest valuation for an AI platform to date. He flags that IonQ will likely contest that characterization. The broader context is Microsoft entering the quantum conversation with Majorana 2 at Build, a name that has largely been absent from the quantum race, while IBM has received most of the attention. (The Decode) AI CapEx Has Outgrown Cash Flow — Alphabet's $80 Billion Equity Raise: On June 1, Alphabet announced an $80 billion equity capital raise, upsized to $85 billion, structured as $40 billion ATM, $30 billion underwritten, and a $10 billion private placement with Berkshire Hathaway anchoring. Pat frames the questions over CapEx returns as entirely dependent on whether you are an AI boomer or a doomer: if the payback comes, the raise is the right move. If it does not, the math doesn't close. Dan argues the investment is existential, drawing parallels to how infrastructure-first companies have always spent ahead of monetization, and notes that Google's equity is being used as a capital engine that may be more efficient than the debt markets right now. Both analysts flag the downstream implications for Broadcom, MediaTek, and Marvell given the TPU connection. (The Decode) The Network Becomes the AI Platform: Cisco Live 2026: Cisco launched Silicon One P200, the Secure AI Factory with NVIDIA and Spectrum X, AgenticOps, MCP-native automation, Cisco IQ, LiveProtect, and folded Astrix Security and Galileo into Splunk under one control plane. Pat identifies Cisco Cloud Control as the biggest announcement of the entire show, pulling together Catalyst, Meraki, Nexus, Firewall, and WebEx under agentic ops that run natively through MCP, with code running directly on smart switches that have x86 processors. Pat also credits Cisco for establishing Silicon One as a credible chip alternative for hyperscalers capable of taking on Tomahawk and Jericho. Dan frames the long-term opportunity as campus and branch enablement when industrial AI and robotics deployments accelerate, arguing that the numerator of AI's economic impact has barely started, as edge deployment spending has not yet begun. (The Decode) The Flip: Did Microsoft Build 2026 Effectively End the OpenAI Partnership? Pat argues the divorce decree has been filed. MAI-Thinking-1 was built with zero distillation from third-party models offering clean enterprise data lineage, with Maia 200 in production plus Anthropic chip supply, which signals vendor hedging. OpenAI is going all-in on AWS, which means you cannot be married to two people, and the full Build stack covering model, OS containment via MXC, agents via Scout and Agent 365, and context via Microsoft IQ removes every architectural dependency on OpenAI. Dan counters that Microsoft is hedging rather than leaving and predicts the partnership will run through the decade. Enterprise Copilot customers are explicitly showing in data that they demand GPT 5.5, internal benchmarks have not been independently validated, and Microsoft stands to make meaningful money from the OpenAI IPO. (The Flip) Broadcom Q2 FY26 Earnings: Broadcom posted revenue of $22.19 billion, a narrow miss depending on which consensus data set is used, with EPS of $2.44 beating estimates and AI semis at $10.8 billion. Hock Tan declined to raise the $100 billion full-year AI chip target, and the stock dropped 13% in premarket trading. Q3 guide came in at $29.4 billion. Pat calls the miss a timing issue driven by Google's multi-sourcing across Marvell, MediaTek, and Broadcom rather than a fundamental problem. Dan flags that Hock Tan opened the earnings call by accidentally reading from the 2025 print, calling it "not the best moment." Sell-side re-ratings held in the 500s across Jefferies, Mizuho, and Deutsche Bank despite the drop, with Futurum Equities having it at 600. (Bulls and Bears) Hewlett Packard Enterprise Q2 FY26 Earnings: HPE delivered revenue of $10.68 billion, up 40% year over year, and EPS of $0.79, up 100%. Juniper integration and AI servers both outperformed, and all FY26 guides were raised. The stock jumped 19% after hours before settling into a roughly 15% gain, with HPE up 68% over the last month. Pat frames HPE as a value play rather than a volume play, methodically targeting enterprise and sovereign cloud deals where it can maintain profitability, rather than competing for massive NeoCloud volume. Antonio Neri was clear on the call that the profitability pull-forward is a one-shot deal. Pat and Dan will both be at HPE Discover the week after next to interview Neri and the C-suite. (Bulls and Bears) Palo Alto Networks Q3 FY26 Earnings: Palo Alto posted revenue of $3.0 billion, up 31% year over year, beating the $2.94 billion estimate, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.85, beating the $0.79 to $0.81 range. NGS ARR reached $8.1 billion, up 60% year over year, including $1.6 billion from CyberArk and Chronosphere. RPO hit $18.4 billion, up 36%. Both FY26 revenue and EPS guides were raised. Adjusted FCF margin came in at 38.5% TTM, up 430 basis points. The stock jumped 11% immediately after hours, then drifted lower. Pat points to 2,200 platformized customers and 120% net retention as the most important metrics. Dan notes the SaaSpocalypse thesis continues to be wrong. (Bulls and Bears) CrowdStrike Q1 FY27 Earnings and the Proprietary Data Moat Argument: CrowdStrike posted revenue of $1.39 billion with EPS of $1.10 and ARR of $5.51 billion. Net new ARR of $255.8 million set a Q1 record, up 32% year over year. FY27 net new ARR guide was raised by $52 million to a $1.29 billion midpoint, and FY27 revenue was raised to $5.915 to $5.959 billion. A 4-for-1 stock split was announced effective July 2nd. The stock dropped 11% despite the beat after a 64% year-to-date run into earnings. Dan uses the results to make a broader argument against the software disruption thesis, referencing Palantir CEO Alex Karp daring customers to build without him using Anthropic or OpenAI, and Larry Ellison's argument that the real AI value unlock sits in proprietary enterprise data that is not accessible to frontier models. Enterprises with governed, secure, proprietary data will continue to need platforms like CrowdStrike regardless of what frontier models can do. (Bulls and Bears) Six Five Summit is coming. Salesforce CEO Mark Benioff will kick off the event. Register and stay current at sixfivemedia.com/summit. Watch the full video at sixfivemedia.com, and be sure to subscribe to our YouTube channel so you never miss an episode.   The Decode Microsoft Declares Independence — Build 2026 Ships an End-to-End Agentic AI Stack (MAI-Thinking-1 + Scout + Microsoft IQ + Project Solara + Majorana 2) https://www.theverge.com/tech/941738/microsoft-build-2026-biggest-announcements The AI Stack Goes Multi-Silicon — Computex 2026 Confirms a Heterogeneous AI Infrastructure (ARM + Marvell + Intel ASIC + Qualcomm + RTX Spark); WSTS Raises 2026 Semi TAM Forecast 90% to $1.51T https://www.tomshardware.com/tag/computex AI Capex Has Outgrown Cash Flow — Alphabet's $80B Equity Raise Is the Largest in U.S. Corporate History; Berkshire Anchors $10B https://abc.xyz/investor/news/news-details/2026/Alphabet-Announces-Proposed-80-Billion-Equity-Capital-Raise-to-Expand-AI-Infrastructure-and-Compute-2026-b0myAMewCa/default.aspx The Network Becomes the AI Platform — Cisco Live 2026 Launches Silicon One P200, Secure AI Factory (with NVIDIA), AgenticOps, Astrix Security + Galileo https://www.cisco.com/site/us/en/about/whats-new/index.html The Flip Did Microsoft Build 2026 Effectively End the OpenAI Partnership? MAI-Thinking-1 Beats Sonnet 4.6 in Blind Testing, Microsoft Claims GPT-5.5 Parity at 10x Cost Efficiency — Will MS Quietly Wind Down OpenAI Exclusivity by FY28, or Is OpenAI Still the Frontier Anchor Microsoft Needs?   FOR:  MAI-Thinking-1 beating Sonnet 4.6 in blind preference + GPT-5.5 parity at 10x cost efficiency is a frontier-model independence proof point https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-microsoft-build-mai-thinking Build 2026: Accumulating Evidence of Microsoft's AI Independence — EDN (June 4) — https://www.edn.com/build-2026-accumulating-evidence-of-microsofts-ai-independence/ Maia 200 in production + Anthropic-Maia chip talks signal Microsoft is hedging its inference vendor stack https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/01/26/maia-200-the-ai-accelerator-built-for-inference/ Microsoft canceled Anthropic's internal software licenses + pivoted to chip-supply pursuit — customer-not-competitor positioning https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/anthropic-microsoft-maia-200-ai-chip.html   AGAINST:  Enterprise Copilot customers explicitly demand GPT-5.5 — internal benchmarks don't replace the brand https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/copilot/release-notes?tabs=all MAI-Thinking-1 benchmarks haven't been third-party verified — Microsoft is the only source https://www.latent.space/p/ainews-microsoft-build-mai-thinking The MS-OpenAI partnership is contractual through 2030+ — unwinding it is impractical and expensive https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2026/04/27/the-next-phase-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/ Microsoft's actual strategic risk is OpenAI leaving, not MS leaving — Anthropic + OpenAI IPOs make OpenAI exit risk the real concern https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec Bulls & Bears Broadcom (AVGO) Q2 FY26 ACTUALS — Rev $22.19B (Narrow Miss) + EPS $2.44 (Beat); AI Semis $10.8B; Hock Tan Refuses to Raise the $100B Full-Year AI Chip Target — Stock −13% Premarket; Q3 Guide $29.4B https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/broadcom-avgo-earnings-report-q2-2026.html Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Q2 FY26 ACTUALS — Blowout: Rev $10.68B (+40%), EPS $0.79 (+100%); Juniper Integration + AI Servers Both Outperform; FY26 Guides All Raised; Stock +19% AH https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260601866494/en/HPE-Reports-Fiscal-2026-Second-Quarter-Results Palo Alto Networks (PANW) Q3 FY26 ACTUALS — Beat-and-Raise: Rev $3.0B (+31% YoY, Beat $2.94B), Non-GAAP EPS $0.85 (Beat $0.79-0.81); NGS ARR $8.1B (+60% YoY, $1.6B from CyberArk + Chronosphere); RPO $18.4B (+36%); FY26 Revenue + EPS Guides BOTH RAISED; Adj FCF Margin 38.5% TTM (+430 bps); Stock +11% Immediate AH, Then Drifted Lower https://www.paloaltonetworks.com/company/press/2026/palo-alto-networks-reports-fiscal-third-quarter-2026-financial-results CrowdStrike narrowly beats estimates on AI tailwinds, but stock falls 9% — CNBC (June 3) — https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/03/crowdstrike-crwd-q1-2027-earnings.html  

In this episode of the Econ Dev Show, Dane talks with Anna Cardona, an economic development consultant with Wolves Development Group, about her path from architecture and design into economic development, her move from public and public-private work into the private sector, and the growing role of energy infrastructure in getting major projects across the finish line. Anna explains how power availability, behind-the-meter solutions, and infrastructure capital are shaping everything from advanced manufacturing to data centers, and why communities need to rethink economic development beyond job counts and CapEx. The conversation also covers community backlash, board education, regenerative industrial ecosystems, family office conferences as an overlooked deal source, and how economic developers can become more empowered, proactive, and creative in building their own pipelines. Like this show? Please leave us a review here — even one sentence helps! Special Guest: Anna Cardona.

Trade policy is once again in the news with the announcement of new tariffs. Our Head of Public Policy Research Ariana Salvatore digs into why tariffs may not be a disruptive factor for markets this time.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Ariana Salvatore: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Ariana Salvatore, Head of Public Policy Research for Morgan Stanley. Today, I'll be talking about how investors should be digesting the latest tariff headlines and what they could mean for the broader economic and market outlook. It's Friday, June 5th at 10am in New York. Tariffs are back in focus as the U.S. administration has proposed new levies following Section 301 investigations into more than 60 of our trading partners. At the same time, USMCA negotiations appear to have begun in earnest, with recent headlines focused on autos, including the possibility of raising regional content requirements for vehicles and auto parts. Now, at first glance, these developments sound like a meaningful escalation in trade policy. But we think these headlines are best understood as a continuation of the existing tariff regime rather than a new and more disruptive phase. Let's start with Section 301. Listeners may recall that the administration replaced the IEEPA tariffs with Section 122 following the Supreme Court's decision back in February. However, that was done under a temporary authority that expires in the end of July. It's been our view that as we approach that deadline, the administration would seek to replace the existing regime under a new authority. The conclusion of the Section 301 investigations is really a step in that direction; or said differently, a continuation of existing policy. We see the administration preserving the current tariff regime come July, but without a larger inflation or growth shock. The second issue is the USMCA. Raising regional content rules may be part of the negotiation now, and those changes could create sector-level friction. Similarly, we think it's possible we see escalation ahead of the July deadline as all three countries work to improve the existing trade deal. Now that being said, we're still constructive on the longer-term trade alignment between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada, and we see structural and procedural constraints that are going to limit the downside risk to something like a potential withdrawal from the agreement. We still expect the USMCA carve-out to remain in place even for Section 301 goods on a range of trading partners. That's because we think the administration sees value in maintaining supply chain integration within North America across a number of sectors. In general, we actually think the recent pattern on tariffs has been toward less, not more, trade pressure at the margin. Recent months have come with several carve-outs, exemptions, and delays on broad-based and sectoral tariffs. That suggests that the administration is still sensitive to the downstream cost impact of tariffs, and of course, affordability matters politically heading into the midterm elections in November. That view also fits with our broader U.S. economics outlook. Our economists continue to see a relatively benign macro backdrop. Growth is expected to remain trend-like, with consumer spending slowing but not collapsing, and strong AI-led CapEx offsetting some of the drag from higher energy prices and policy uncertainty. On inflation, tariffs remain part of the story, but much of the pass-through appears to be already in the data. That pairs with a more constructive outlook for equity markets as well, as our strategists there see a strong earnings story supported by things like positive operating leverage, AI adoption, improving pricing power, and a broadening out in earnings growth. So, the key message for investors is this: tariff policy is still noisy, and it will remain a source of headline risk. But in our base case, the administration is moving toward a more durable version of the current tariff regime, not a materially more disruptive or restrictive one. Section 301 replaces Section 122, the USMCA carve-out stays in place, and selective exemptions continue where the affordability or supply chain costs are too high. Thanks for listening. As a reminder, if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please take a moment to rate and review us wherever you listen, and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Is the U.S. economy heading toward stability, or just navigating a new kind of volatility?In this episode of Around the Horn in Wholesale Distribution, Kevin Brown and Tom Burton are joined by Taylor St. Germain, Senior Economist at ITR Economics, to unpack the forces reshaping wholesale distribution and manufacturing. From interest rate uncertainty and tariff refund chaos to AI adoption gaps and “profitless prosperity,” this conversation connects macroeconomic signals directly to distributor margin strategy, capital investment decisions, and long-term growth planning.What You'll Learn:Why the current economy feels like a “tale of two economies”, and how income distribution impacts demand across B2B marketsWhat the Federal Reserve is really watching (core inflation vs. trimmed mean metrics) and how rate decisions could affect CapEx, M&A, and working capitalHow tariff policy, Section 301 and 232 rulings, and refund uncertainty are influencing distributor pricing strategy and customer relationshipsWhat “profitless prosperity” means for 2026 and 2027, and how to protect margins during growth at a higher costWhy most AI initiatives in wholesale distribution are still efficiency plays—and what separates hype from scalable, repeatable AI-driven business processesEpisode Highlights:03:30 – Inside ITR Economics: forecasting accuracy, leading indicators, and preparing for downturns11:45 – May jobs report surprises: what strong hiring means for inflation and rate decisions14:20 – Interest rate outlook: hold, cut, or increase—and why energy prices complicate the Fed's move30:18 – Tariff escalation, Section 301 and 232 policies, and the ripple effect across distributors41:03 – Tariff refunds: unintended consequences for margins, pricing transparency, and customer trust58:26 – AI adoption in wholesale distribution: efficiency gains vs. true strategic transformation1:16:35 – “Growth at a higher cost”: how to navigate labor inflation, electricity costs, reshoring, and fiscal pressureMeet the Guest:Taylor St. Germain is a Senior Economist and Business Consultant at ITR Economics. He delivers economic keynotes nationwide and helps manufacturers and distributors identify leading indicators, forecast demand, and prepare for economic cycles with a 94.7% forecasting accuracy standard.Tools, Frameworks, and Strategies Mentioned:ITR Economics leading indicator forecasting modelsWeekly GDP tracking vs. lagging government metricsTrimmed mean inflation vs. core CPIEnterprise Growth Platform by LeadSmart TechnologiesAI-driven margin protection and data unification strategiesClosing Insight:“We are very optimistic about growth, but it's growth at a higher cost.”The second half of the decade presents opportunities for wholesale distributors and manufacturers, but only for those who actively manage labor inflation, tariff exposure, electricity costs, and AI investment discipline. Growth is not the question. Margin strategy is.Leave a Review: Help us grow by sharing your thoughts on the show.Learn more about the LeadSmart AI B2B Sales Platform: https://www.leadsmarttech.com/Join the conversation each week on LinkedIn Live.Want even more insight to the stories we discuss each week? Subscribe to the Around The Horn Newsletter.You can also hear the podcast and other excellent content on our YouTube Channel.Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, or TikTok.

This week on Autonomy Signals, Grayson Brulte and Rob Grant discuss Uber's OEM-agnostic robotaxi strategy in Europe, FedEx Freight CEO's declaration that autonomous trucks are ready for prime time, and the AUKUS alliance accelerating undersea autonomy.At GTC Taipei, Uber, Autobrains, and NVIDIA announced a strategic collaboration to launch a robotaxi program in Munich, pending regulatory approval, built on Autobrains' agentic AI and the NVIDIA DRIVE Hyperion Level 4 platform. With no German OEM attached and Stellantis the likely production partner, the move extends Uber's asset-light playbook of contributing its demand network while pushing vehicle CapEx off its balance sheet and onto its partners.On June 1st, FedEx Freight began trading as an independent standalone company, and CEO John Smith stated that its autonomous tractor-trailers can run yard to interstate to facility with 99.9% autonomy. By framing the primary barrier to commercialization as regulatory rather than technical, Mr. Smith flipped the industry narrative from can we build it to will we be allowed to use it.Then there is AUKUS, where Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom formally initiated a trilateral project to develop unmanned undersea vehicles with an aggressive 2027 delivery target. The UUVs are designed for reconnaissance, strike, anti-submarine warfare, and protection of critical infrastructure like undersea cables, signaling that autonomy is no longer just a commercial endeavor but a core pillar of national security, though trilateral interoperability and contested deep-sea environments pose real execution risk.Episode Chapters00:00 Signal 1: Uber's European Robotaxi Strategy33:19 Signal 2: AUKUS Accelerates Unmanned Undersea Autonomy56:16 Signal 3: FedEx Freight CEO Flips the Script01:09:26 AUTNMY AIAutonomy Signals is presented by KPMG.--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy is the leading applied intelligence platform covering the convergence of automation, autonomy, and the Autonomy Economy.™.Through our podcasts, newsletter, and proprietary market intelligence, we set the narrative for institutional investors, industry executives, and policymakers navigating the convergence of automation, autonomy, and economic growth.Join institutional investors and industry leaders who read This Week in The Autonomy Economy every Sunday. Each edition delivers exclusive insight and commentary on the autonomy economy, helping you stay ahead of what's next.Subscribe today: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/ae/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Given that the Iran war-driven surge in oil prices doubled Q1 E&P profits, a surge in capex to capture fatter cash flows seemed like a sure thing, but that would have been a losing bet. Today, we review oil and gas producers' investment and production guidance and analyze potential future strategy.

The world is shifting from asset light and infinitely scalable to asset heavy. Across the globe, trillions of dollars are going into assets. Capital expenditure is on the rise. What is driving this? What sectors are we seeing it in? What are the challenges and bottlenecks companies face in delivering on CapEx programs? And how do new technologies and approaches to talent overcome this? Our guest is Erikans Kok, Senior Partner at McKinsey where he leads their Capital Excellence Practice globally. For related content and to find out more about HC Group, a search firm dedicated to the energy & commodities sector, visit https://www.hcgroup.global

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss Google's $80 billion equity raise to fund AI infrastructure CapEx through mandatory convertible preferred stock, Class A and C common stock, and an at-the-market offering, Berkshire Hathaway taking a $10 billion stake at a discount, the administrative shift to corporate cash for employee RSU tax obligations, the broader AI cash crunch with $80 billion of SpaceX stock and Anthropic's IPO filing hitting the market, and which hyperscaler MSFT, ORCL, META, or AMZN could be next to raise.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

What does it take for a professional snowboarder, six X Games appearances, gold and silver medals, fifteen years on tour, to land in real estate? For Dan Brisse, the answer was watching the guys five and ten years ahead of him lose their houses, their cars, and worse.That was the wake-up call. While most of his peers spent every pay raise on the biggest house they could buy, Dan was reading books and buying apartments. By the time his snowboarding career ended, he had 70-some units already producing passive income.Today Dan co-leads Granite Towers Equity Group, a 3,300-unit multifamily portfolio focused on Dallas-Fort Worth, Nashville, and select Minnesota submarkets. The playbook is disciplined: newer assets (1985 and up), 140 to 300 units, $20 to $40 million purchase price, 95%+ occupancy submarkets with real pent-up demand. Eighty-twenty split with LPs. Sixty-five to seventy-five percent loan-to-value, fixed rate, non-recourse. CapEx raised liquid up front, so the bank cannot force a bad spend.What you'll hear:The chairlift moment that reframed every financial decision Dan has made sinceWhy 78% of pro athletes are broke within three years of retirement and the side-hustle move he made to avoid joining themThe Cleburne, Texas case study: $6.75M acquisition, $2.1M LP raise, full-cycle returnsA second case study where interior upgrades and water conservation drove a 1.8x equity multiple in two yearsWhy Dan believes we are in a generational buying window with multifamily trading at 30-40% discounts versus 2021-22 peaksHis sharpest definition of wealth, and why "rich" and "wealthy" aren't the same thingLearn more about Granite Towers Equity Group: https://www.granitetowersequitygroup.com/contact-usElevista - Speed as a Service™Elevista Connect is the first AI-powered lead conversion system built for real estate investors.

In this episode of Construction Corner, host Dillon breaks down the massive infrastructure transformation sweeping America — and what it means for the construction industry.Dillon covers:The power grid under pressure — Why the surge in data centers and reshoring of manufacturing is driving unprecedented investment in utility infrastructure, and how FERC regulates rate increases tied to capital spending.Data center geography — Which states are winning the data center race (Northern Virginia, Texas, Eastern Oregon, Nevada, Arizona) and why California keeps losing out to regulation and permitting challenges.The $700 billion AI buildout — How the four hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta) are committing historic CapEx, what a gigawatt-scale facility actually costs, and why supply chain — not concrete — is the real bottleneck.Behind-the-meter power — Why major data center operators aren't waiting on utilities and are standing up their own generation (gas turbines, solar, and even small modular nuclear reactors) to turn on racks faster.Battery energy storage at scale — How megawatt-hour battery systems are being deployed at data centers to smooth load swings, support the grid, and reduce utility dependency — and why this is very different from a home Powerwall.The AI compute race — Why demand for GPUs shows no signs of slowing, how Anthropic's revenue explosion illustrates real consumption, and why this infrastructure build likely runs for at least five more years.Construction is hyper-local — A reminder that no matter how big the macro trends are, your personal economy in construction is defined by the geography and relationships where you operate.Whether you're in the trades, engineering, or just trying to understand where the industry is headed, this episode gives you a ground-level view of the biggest construction wave in a generation.

In a time of market volatility, inflation concerns, and growing financial pressure across higher education, how can colleges and universities ensure their endowments remain both resilient and mission-aligned? In this episode, AGB's David Bass speaks with Kyle Adams of Cerity Partners about the evolving role of the outsourced chief investment officer (OCIO) model and what boards and investment committees should expect from their investment partners today. Together, they discuss how institutions of all sizes can strengthen decision-making, navigate uncertainty, and position their endowments to support long-term priorities. Opinions expressed in AGB podcasts are those of the speakers and not necessarily those of the organizations that employ them or of AGB. Disclosures Please read important disclosures here. Cerity Partners OCIO LLC ("Cerity Partners OCIO" or "CP OCIO") is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cerity Partners LLC (together with its affiliates, "Cerity Partners"). Views expressed are as of the date recorded unless otherwise indicated. Client data is as of February 28, 2026. The NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments, which is available for purchase, provides an annual analysis of endowment investment returns, asset allocations, and governance policies and practices at hundreds of U.S. higher education institutions and affiliated foundations. Cerity Partners OCIO is a corporate partner member of NACUBO and sponsors certain NACUBO events. Certain CP OCIO clients may have participated in the study. NACUBO data is as of June 30, 2025. Cerulli Associates provides market intelligence and strategic business for the financial industry.  The Cerulli US Outsourced Chief Investment Officer Function 2025 Report, which is available for purchase, explores the evolving OCIO landscape, including market sizing, forces of growth, demand and needs across client segments, use of OCIO search consultants, and the various challenges facing providers. "CapEx" refers to Capital Expenditures. "Fed" refers to the Federal Reserve. "RFP" refers to Request for Proposal.

June is here so guess what? It's officially Hot AI Summer.

Marty sits down with John Tinsman to discuss the astronomical ROI of AI data centers, why hyperscaler CapEx has made the US economy rate-inelastic, and the brewing agricultural input crisis. John on X: https://x.com/JohnTinsman AOT: https://aotetf.com/ STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/yHGkvYxdqT Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bitkey.world/ Aven https://www.aven.com/bitcoin CrowdHealth https://www.joincrowdhealth.com/tftc Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Salt of the Earth: https://drinksote.com/tftc Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

Patrick Moorhead and Daniel Newman cover Daniel's acquisition of Enterprise Technology Research, IBM's historic $15 billion single-day commitment spanning quantum and open-source security, Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.8, and the heaviest single earnings night of the season featuring Dell, Marvell, Salesforce, Synopsys, Snowflake, HP, and Micron crossing $1 trillion in market cap. The handpicked topics for this week are: Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8: Six Weeks After 4.7 Anthropic dropped Opus 4.8 just six weeks after 4.7, claiming it surpasses GPT-5.5 and Gemini 3.1 Pro on agentic coding, knowledge work, and computer use. Benchmark improvements across the board: agentic coding up from 64.3% to 69.2%, knowledge work from 1753 to 1890, agentic computer use from 82.8% to 83.4%. Three new features ship alongside it: Dynamic Workflows for multi-subagent orchestration inside Claude Code, Effort Control for managing token spend, and mid-task system messages via the API. Fast mode is now 2.5x faster and 3x cheaper. Pat's honest take: what it says on paper is good, particularly on tool triggering and citation precision, but he has lost significant trust in the company and is watching closely. (The Decode)   IBM Commits $10 Billion to Quantum: The Largest Single Quantum Bet in History IBM announced a $10 billion commitment over five years targeting a large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029, landing the same day as the $5 billion Project Lightwell announcement for a single-day IBM strategic commitment of $15 billion. Pat has been calling 2029 to 2031 as the realistic commercial quantum window and calls this the strongest single corporate financial signal yet that the timeline is real. Daniel's framing: IBM wants to be the NVIDIA of quantum, and with a $10 billion commitment, it's sending a flare to the entire industry that pure-play quantum companies cannot compete at this balance sheet level. (The Decode)   IBM and Red Hat Launch Project Lightwell: $5B to Secure Open-Source Software IBM and Red Hat committed $5 billion and a global force of 20,000 engineers to secure open-source software for enterprises through frontier agentic AI, anchored by 11 of the largest US and Canadian banks including Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, and Visa. Pat's read: this is the productization answer to Anthropic Mythos. Mythos found the vulnerabilities. Lightwell is the industrial-scale patching and validation layer enterprises can actually buy on a subscription. Daniel adds that IBM is flexing its engineering talent base as a premium strategic asset, a direct counter to the narrative that AI replaces engineers. (The Decode)   Anthropic Project Glasswing: 23,000 Vulnerabilities Found Across 1,000 OSS Projects Anthropic's Claude Mythos scanned more than 1,000 widely deployed open-source projects and surfaced approximately 23,000 candidate vulnerabilities, with 1,094 confirmed as critical severity. The Cyber Verification Program now gates the strongest cyber-capable Claude variant behind vetted defenders only. While the tool creates real value, the surface of attack will likely grow as fast as any tool built to defend it. (The Decode)   Anthropic in Talks to Run Claude on Microsoft Maia 200 CNBC and The Information reported Microsoft is in active negotiations to supply Anthropic with its custom Maia 200 inference chip, which would make Anthropic the only frontier lab simultaneously running production workloads on four distinct silicon stacks: NVIDIA, AWS Trainium, Google TPU, and Microsoft Maia. Pat's context: Maia 200 delivers 30% better tokens per dollar than the latest Azure fleet per Satya Nadella, and this deal would be Maia's first major external deployment. Daniel's read: what can be built will be sold right now, and Anthropic chasing every available compute source is simply the structural reality of growing at 80x when you planned for 10x. (The Decode)   The Flip: Is AI CapEx Too Expensive to Earn Its Return? Pat takes the affirmative. With $725 billion in hyperscaler CapEx tracking for 2026, likely $1 trillion next year, memory has become the choke point making it even more expensive, and open-source models have closed enough of the quality gap for most enterprise tasks that the premium of frontier APIs is increasingly hard to justify. A recent Signal65 white paper shows on-prem payback at 18 months. Daniel's counter: Dell just booked $24 billion in AI orders in a single quarter. Agentforce crossed $1 billion ARR at 169% growth. NVIDIA guided to $91 billion. Only 20% of enterprises are using AI and only 2% of consumers. Both hosts admitted off the flip their notes looked nearly identical. (The Flip)   Micron Crosses $1 Trillion Market Cap Micron became the 12th US company ever to cross $1 trillion in market cap, surging 19% on May 26th as UBS raised its price target to $1,625, implying a $1.8 trillion market cap. Samsung's Q1 memory ASP jumped 146% year over year. DRAM spot prices spiked 55 to 60% quarter over quarter. Daniel has been pounding this call since sub-$100 and calls it a cycle elongated beyond anything seen in the 27 prior memory cycles, driven by HBM capacity reallocation away from consumer DRAM creating structural shortage. (Bulls and Bears)   Dell Technologies Q1 FY27: The Biggest Enterprise AI Infrastructure Print of 2026 Record $43.8 billion revenue, up 88% year over year, crushing the $35.7 billion consensus by $8 billion. AI-optimized servers at $16.1 billion, up 757% year over year. $24.4 billion in AI orders booked in a single quarter. FY27 AI server revenue guide raised from $50 billion to $60 billion. Non-GAAP EPS of $4.86 beat the $2.96 consensus by 64%. Stock up 18% after hours. Pat's framing: Dell was very clear about what they were going to do. Rack engineering, sales, and service. The basics. And they executed the basics at an extraordinary level while building a special relationship with NVIDIA who views Dell as a market maker for both enterprise and NeoCloud. Daniel's add: play nice and win. Michael Dell navigated the political landscape brilliantly and pulled the entire Dell brand along with him. (Bulls and Bears)   Marvell Technology Q1 FY27: Record Revenue, Data Center at 76% of Mix Record $2.418 billion revenue, up 28% year over year. Data center at $1.833 billion, up 27% year over year, now 76% of total revenue. Q2 guide of $2.7 billion at midpoint accelerates growth to 35% year over year. Operating cash flow a record $638.8 million. Daniel went on TV and said it's "written in the stars," arguing the market had misunderstood this one for too long by conflating its custom AI ASIC story with the full breadth of its connectivity and networking portfolio. Pat's closing: the shorts are eating it now and the custom AI ASIC versus merchant GPU debate is finally settling into the right answer, which is both in lockstep. (Bulls and Bears)   Salesforce Q1 FY27: Agentforce Crosses $1 Billion ARR Revenue $11.13 billion, up 13% year over year. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.88 crushed the $3.12 consensus by 24%. Agentforce ARR crossed $1 billion, up 169% year over year, with 28.6 trillion tokens processed, up 152% quarter over quarter. 50% of Agentforce bookings came from existing customers expanding. Daniel flagged the $25 billion accelerated buyback funded by new debt as an interesting signal worth watching. Pat's bottom line: it's not perfect, but certainly no "SaaSpocalypse" in those numbers. (Bulls and Bears)   Synopsys Q2 FY26: First Full Quarter With Ansys Integrated Revenue $2.276 billion, up 42% year over year, beating consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.35 beat $3.15. FY26 guide raised to $9.665 billion midpoint. Daniel's framing: every chip runs through Synopsys tools, and the Ansys addition makes it the full-stack co-design platform Jensen Huang keeps talking about. Synopsys is not just the pick and shovel of current AI silicon. It is the pick and shovel of quantum, robotics, and space as well. (Bulls and Bears)   Snowflake Q1 FY27: Strongest Sequential Dollar Growth in Company History Product revenue $1.33 billion, up 34% year over year, the strongest sequential dollar growth in Snowflake history. Net revenue retention 126%. FY27 product revenue guide raised to $5.84 billion. Natoma acquisition announced for secure agentic enterprise connectivity. New $6 billion multi-year AWS commitment. Daniel's closing: proprietary unique data is the real moat of the agentic era, and that data has to live somewhere. It is going to go to platforms like Snowflake. (Bulls and Bears)   HP Inc. Q2 FY26: Eight Straight Quarters of Growth With AI PCs at 44% of Shipments Revenue $14.4 billion, up 9% year over year, the company marks its eighth consecutive quarter of top-line growth. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.86 beat the prior guide. Personal Systems at $10.2 billion, up 13%, with 30% operating profit growth. AI PCs jumped from 35% to 44% of shipments quarter over quarter, with HP guiding to 60 to 70% next fiscal year. FY26 EPS guide raised. Pat's note: they still need a permanent CEO, which would help investors sleep better at night. Daniel's add: the real explosive moment for device companies comes when AI moves to the edge and enterprises shift from expensive frontier model consumption to on-device inference. (Bulls and Bears)   Everpure Q1 FY27: Record Revenue, Rebrand Complete Record revenue of $1.1 billion, up 35% year over year. Product revenue $577 million, up 55%. Subscription ARR at $2 billion. FY27 guide raised to $4.41 to $4.51 billion. Pure Storage officially completed its rebrand to Everpure. Daniel's emerging thesis: the agentic era has focused enormous attention on memory and compute, but after the inference runs, the data has to sit somewhere. Storage has not seen its full inflection yet and Everpure is well positioned when that wave arrives. (Bulls and Bears)   The Decode Anthropic Releases Claude Opus 4.8 May 28  https://techcrunch.com/2026/05/28/anthropic-releases-opus-4-8-with-new-dynamic-workflow-tool/ IBM Commits $10B Over Five Years to Quantum Computing the Same Day as $5B Project Lightwell, Bringing IBM's One-Day AI https://www.barrons.com/articles/ibm-stock-quantum-computing-aafbb1eb IBM + Red Hat Announce Project Lightwell  https://newsroom.ibm.com/2026-05-28-ibm-and-red-hat-commit-5-billion-to-redefine-the-future-of-open-source-in-the-ai-era Anthropic Project Glasswing / Claude Mythos Finds 23,000 Potential Vulnerabilities Across 1,000+ Open-Source Projects https://www.securityweek.com/anthropic-mythos-detected-23000-potential-vulnerabilities-across-1000-oss-projects/ Anthropic Negotiating to Run Claude on Microsoft's Maia 200 AI Chips  https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/anthropic-microsoft-maia-200-ai-chip.html OpenAI + Anthropic Walk Back the AI Jobs Apocalypse Ahead of IPOs https://finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/ai-chiefs-walk-back-job-193605798.html https://x.com/RiskCentre/status/2059397756016611668 The Flip Is AI Capex Becoming Too Expensive to Earn Its Return — and Will the Result Be a Forced Shift to Open-Source and Smaller Use-Case-Specific Models, or a Continued $725B+ Hyperscaler Buildout That Vindicates the Capex on Productivity Gains? FOR:  The shift is to open-source + smaller use-case-specific models with better token economics, not away from AI https://x.com/danielnewmanUV/status/2059822712122400975 DeepSeek 75% permanent price cut + Anthropic Claude Code restriction reversal https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/ai-news-today-may-26-2026 $190B Microsoft capex + $725B+ aggregate hyperscaler capex with no analog ROI yet  https://www.buildfastwithai.com/blogs/ai-news-today-may-26-2026   AGAINST:  Salesforce Agentforce ARR crossed $1B this quarter on 28.6T tokens processed  https://www.stocktitan.net/sec-filings/CRM/8-k-salesforce-inc-reports-material-event-3b8ead2852bb.html Lenovo +105% AI revenue, +84% Q4; Dell $43B AI backlog: the AI infrastructure flywheel is converting capex to revenue today https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1023/marvell-technology-inc-reports-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results NVIDIA $91B Q2 guide + $1T Blackwell+Vera Rubin CY25-CY27 reaffirmed  https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/20/were-raising-our-price-target-on-nvidia-after-another-knockout-quarter-and-guide-.html DeepSeek + Chinese price war is a Chinese export-controls story, not a US economic ceiling story https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/21/anthropic-microsoft-maia-200-ai-chip.html   Bulls & Bears Micron (NASDAQ: MU) Crosses $1 TRILLION Market Cap for the First Time https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/26/micron-stock-trillion-market-cap.html Dell Technologies Q1 FY27 ACTUALS  https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/28/dell-q1-earnings-report-2027.html Marvell Technology Q1 FY27 ACTUALS https://investor.marvell.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1023/marvell-technology-inc-reports-first-quarter-of-fiscal-year-2027-financial-results Salesforce CRM Q1 FY27 ACTUALS  https://investor.salesforce.com/financials/quarterly-results/ Synopsys SNPS Q2 FY26 ACTUALS https://investor.synopsys.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2026/Q2-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings/default.aspx Snowflake SNOW Q1 FY27 ACTUALS  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260527027931/en/Snowflake-Reports-Financial-Results-for-the-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2027 HP Inc. HPQ Q2 FY26 ACTUALS https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hp-q2-earnings-call-highlights-230459161.html Everpure (NYSE: P, formerly Pure Storage) Q1 FY27 ACTUALS  https://investor.salesforce.com/financials/quarterly-results/ Synopsys SNPS Q2 FY26 ACTUALS https://investor.synopsys.com/events-and-presentations/events/event-details/2026/Q2-Fiscal-Year-2026-Earnings/default.aspx Snowflake SNOW Q1 FY27 ACTUALS  https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20260527027931/en/Snowflake-Reports-Financial-Results-for-the-First-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2027 HP Inc. HPQ Q2 FY26 ACTUALS  https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/hp-q2-earnings-call-highlights-230459161.html Everpure (NYSE: P, formerly Pure Storage) Q1 FY27 ACTUALS https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/everpure-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-2027-financial-results-302783502.html

Dan Nathan hosts Dan Niles of Niles Investment Management on the Risk Reversal podcast to discuss macro conditions, AI-driven market leadership, and lessons from prior tech cycles. Niles compares the current AI build-out to 1997–1998's internet infrastructure boom, arguing recent macro scares (tariffs, Iran/oil) created buying opportunities and that a bubble can persist, with further gains likely before a potential 30–50% drawdown next year. He cites a January 30 “agentic AI” step-change increasing token/compute demand, supporting strong CapEx and earnings growth, and notes Nvidia's growth versus valuation relative to past leaders like Cisco. They debate rising yields, inflation measures, and expectations for a rate-cutting Fed chair (Kevin Warsh). The conversation covers Intel's potential benefit from agentic shifts, corporate AI cost pressures, likely disruption to software/IT services and knowledge work, Micron's HBM-driven surge and cyclicality risks, and how major IPOs like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could reshape flows and create new short opportunities. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this deal segment episode, Axel sits back down with Phil MacArthur to break down one of Phil's most recent acquisitions: a 20-unit portfolio deal across four buildings in New Hampshire, picked up on the MLS after months of sitting on cash from prior refinances. The conversation gets into the real nuances of buying from long-term mom-and-pop owners: the informal nature of their leases, the difficulty of getting estoppels, and why small-deal variance is just part of the game when you're playing in the 5 to 30 unit space. Phil and Axel also share a candid back-and-forth on tenant retention — and why tenants know the rental market far better than most landlords give them credit for.This episode is essential listening for any investor buying smaller multifamily deals direct from mom-and-pop owners — and who wants a clear-eyed picture of what the due diligence process actually looks like when the seller isn't exactly playing by the book.Join us as we dive into:How Phil found this 20-unit, four-building deal on the MLS after sitting on cash from four prior refinances for six months.Why the appraiser — from a large Boston institution — applied a 5% loss-to-lease penalty on four vacant units and capped the bank's lending at $3M (65–70% LTV)How Phil bridged the $300,000 financing gap with a short-term hard money lender to get the deal closedThe business plan: light CapEx on roofs and exterior, and bumping rents from an in-place average of $1,600 toward a market rate of ~$1,950 — already achieved on newly leased unitsWhy almost none of the existing tenants left — and why that was better than expected given the previous owner's warningsWhy tenants know the rental market better than investors give them credit for — and why that works in your favor when your rents are modestly below marketThe exit plan: refinance out the hard money, stabilize the rent roll, and target a cash-out refi within 12–24 months to recover 75%+ of invested capitalConnect with Phil:Connect with him on LinkedinFollow Windrift Real Estate on InstagramLearn more about Windrift Real Estate, LLCListen to the Previous Episode with Phil: Ep119 - Living in an Expensive Market and Investing out of State + Quickly Building a Personally Owned Portfolio of 70+ Units via Spotify or AppleAre you looking to invest in real estate, but don't want to deal with the hassle of finding great deals, signing on debt, and managing tenants? Aligned Real Estate Partners provides investment opportunities to passive investors looking for the returns, stability, and tax benefits multifamily real estate offers, but without the work - join our investor club to be notified of future investment opportunities.Connect with Axel:Follow him on InstagramConnect with him on LinkedinSubscribe to our YouTube channelLearn more about Aligned Real Estate Partners

"It's difficult to tell what the motivations are" in a U.S.-Iran peace deal, says Thomas Martin, who believes a that deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will gradually ease inflation concerns. However, he says it needs to happen "sooner rather than later." Thomas then turns to blockbuster earnings like Dell Technologies (DELL) and Micron (MU) that served as buoys to geopolitical uncertainty. He urges investors to follow the CapEx spend to find unsung beneficiaries in the AI trade. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

ITPM Flash provides insight into what professional traders are thinking about in the markets RIGHT NOW!   Markets are pushing higher despite valuation metrics flashing warning signs across the board.   In this week's ITPM Flash, Edward Shek breaks down the extraordinary concentration driving the current rally — from hyperscaler CapEx spending to explosive AI-driven earnings growth. With the S&P 500 trading at historically extreme valuations, the big question is whether we are witnessing another bubble… or the early stages of a once-in-a-generation infrastructure boom.   Ed explores the unprecedented scale of AI data centre investment, why traditional valuation metrics may be understating the impact of the current CapEx cycle, and how hyperscaler spending is reshaping the entire market. He also explains why professional investors continue piling into the trade despite rising bond yields, weak consumer sentiment, and increasingly narrow market leadership.   Finally, Ed outlines how he is managing risk in this environment — staying overweight the AI CapEx trade while actively managing position sizing, downside protection, and momentum exposure.   Enjoy the episode.

Dan Ives returns to the Watch List to add color on his ultra bullish tech takes. His firm has a $280 price target on Snowflake (SNOW), as Dan sees the company's data potential as a massive moat. He maintains his view that Palantir (PLTR) will be a $1 trillion company and expects Salesforce's (CRM) Agentforce platform to benefit the company long-term. On the Mag 7, Dan says Alphabet (GOOGL) is leading the charge for ROI versus CapEx, with Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) not far behind. He thinks Meta Platforms (META) needs more clarity for investors.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

↴    ↴    ↴Descubre aquí tu perfil de inversor.En este podcast te explico por qué el 92% del crecimiento económico de Estados Unidos en 2025 depende exclusivamente de la inteligencia artificial y por qué este nivel de concentración puede ser una señal de posible burbuja. Analizo contigo qué es una burbuja financiera, cómo encaja la inversión en IA dentro de este patrón histórico y por qué las Magnificent Seven han alcanzado un nivel de dominio sin precedentes dentro del S&P 500.Después te muestro los datos más recientes de Goldman Sachs para entender si realmente las valoraciones actuales justifican el precio de las acciones tecnológicas. Revisamos el PER, el crecimiento real de beneficios y casos como NVIDIA para evaluar si estamos ante una burbuja especulativa o un crecimiento fundamentado en ingresos reales.Más adelante profundizo en el enorme riesgo que supone el Capex en inteligencia artificial, la financiación circular, la deuda oculta y el papel de la IA como columna del PIB estadounidense. También te cuento por qué expertos como Andrej Karpathy contradicen las predicciones optimistas sobre la llegada de la AGI y qué implica este desacople entre expectativas tecnológicas y realidad.Finalmente te doy cuatro consejos prácticos como inversor para navegar este escenario: cómo invertir a largo plazo, cómo diversificar en la cadena de valor de la IA, cómo evitar el FOMO y cómo priorizar empresas con fundamentales sólidos. Cerramos analizando si estamos ante una burbuja, una revolución o ambas cosas a la vez, y qué significa esto para tus inversiones en los próximos años.

Crude oil has pulled back as U.S.-Iran tension fears ease. Jim Iuorio says AI-driven CapEx and strong demand will help the U.S. economy avoid an oil shock, while flagging potential supply increases. Jim turns to opportunities he sees in Tesla (TSLA) and metals like Silver and gold.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

As long as earnings estimates continue to move higher, Cameron Dawson sees the bull run having solid footing. That said, she notes markets are slightly overbought and breadth is narrow. If earnings slow, Cameron believes that bull run can stop quickly. She adds that she's fearful of "the lack of fear itself," expressing concern of the intense call activity seen in options. Cameron later tackles the AI CapEx story as hyperscalers build out their AI infrastructure. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya looks at why spending not only on AI, but also on energy and defense, could drive Asia's strongest industrial cycle in decades.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Chetan Ahya, Morgan Stanley's Chief Asia Economist. Today – why Asia is headed toward its strongest industrial cycle since the mid-2000s. It's Tuesday, May 26th, at 2pm in Hong Kong. The market narrative in Asia has been narrowly – almost exclusively – focused on artificial intelligence. But AI is just one aspect of a much broader shift across the region. We think Asia is entering an industrial supercycle. And this is being driven by a sustained rise in capital expenditures across AI, energy, defense and [the] broader industrial sector. The numbers behind this are substantial. We forecast Asia's total investment could rise from about $11 trillion today to $16 trillion by 2030. So this implies a 7 percent annual growth rate over the next five years, which is triple the pace of the past two years, making it quite significant. And for the high growth sector such as AI, energy, defense and broader industrial sector we expect capex to grow at an even faster runrate of about 16 percent a year. Now let's talk about the drivers. No doubt, the first big driver behind this momentum is AI. Asia needs to invest more in AI infrastructure. At the same time, Asian chipmakers and memory producers are lifting capex to meet demand of U.S. hyperscalers for building data centres. The second driver is energy. Asia needs to invest in the energy sector for three reasons – for powering AI, energy transition and energy security. The power demand for AI compute is growing exponentially. On top of that, economies are having to shift towards renewables, and that needs more investment in grids, storage, and power generation equipment. Moreover, the recent geopolitical tensions have made energy security a bigger policy priority, especially for Asia which is dependent on imported energy. The third driver is defense. Now, even before the recent escalation in the Middle East, defense budgets across Asia were moving higher. This year, China has planned their defense spending to grow at a pace faster than its GDP growth. Meanwhile, India has raised budgetary allocations for defense capex by 18 percent this year. At the same time, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are aiming to lift their combined defense spending from about 1.7 percent of GDP to 3 percent. The fourth driver is broader industrial sector investment. Every economy in the region is working to secure their supply chains and focused more on onshoring of critical inputs for their domestic production. So what does this mean for Asia? The region stands to reap the benefits of a rise in capex [spending] twice over. First, the increase in Asia's capex will fuel its industrial cycle. Second, you have to consider [that] Asia is the world's production house. And as rest of the world is increasing capex investment in the areas I identified earlier, Asia benefits from feeding this global demand. Already, the evidence of a strong industrial cycle is visible. We prefer to look at capital goods imports as a proxy for capex. And that has been growing at an impressive rate of 27 percent on a year-over-year basis in dollar terms. Industrial production [growth] is nearing a four-year high. And non-tech exports, which are important from industrial production perspective, have staged a strong recovery since the fourth quarter of last year. So which Asian economies will benefit? As such, all of them. But China, Japan, Korea, and Taiwan are the biggest beneficiaries because they are meeting both domestic and export demands. On the other hand, India's industrial sector benefits primarily from its own domestic capex cycle. The pickup in Asia's industrial production is pushing industrial commodities prices higher, helping Australia and Indonesia, the two biggest commodity exporters in the region. This next chapter of Asia's growth story will filter through – from capex to jobs and income growth, and then through to the consumer. That's why this is not just an AI story. It will become a broader economic recovery across the region. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Guy Adami and Dan Nathan discuss an S&P 500 pressing all-time highs amid sticky inflation, a 10-year yield around the mid-4% range, and low near-term volatility despite an upcoming Fed meeting and PCE data. They review mixed retail signals (strength at higher-end brands versus Walmart's margin pressure and a strained lower-end consumer), debate the market's resilience, and focus on AI: Nvidia's explosive growth and concerns that soaring usage-based AI costs could challenge the “sanctity” of big-tech CapEx, alongside critiques of Meta layoffs and skepticism about SaaS firms overpromising AI. Guy then interviews Darrell Crate of Easterly, who outlines structural volatility, demographic-driven retirement needs, and hedged equity demand, argues small caps benefit from innovation, and describes Easterly Government Properties as a mission-critical government-lease REIT with an 8% dividend, no canceled leases, a $1.5B pipeline, and potential tailwinds from government efficiency initiatives and GSA changes. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down SpaceX's S-1, unpacking what the filing reveals about Starlink, xAI, X, common control accounting, revenue, losses, CapEx, and Elon Musk's Mars-linked compensation structure.—SPONSORS:RightRev is an automated revenue recognition platform built for teams that have outgrown spreadsheets and billing tool workarounds. It handles high-volume subscriptions, usage-based contracts, and mid-cycle upgrades, so you can scale without scrambling at month-end. For RevRec that keeps your books clean, visit https://www.rightrev.com/CJRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartupsSpendHound is a SaaS spend management platform built for finance and procurement teams that want visibility and leverage in every deal. By tracking all your software, benchmarking pricing across thousands of vendors, and surfacing contracts and renewals, SpendHound helps you stop overpaying and negotiate with confidence. Trusted by teams at ZoomInfo and Hootsuite. Get started at https://www.spendhound.com/cjBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAleph is a modern FP&A platform built for teams that want more than another planning tool. By connecting your ERP, CRM, and other systems into one trusted data layer with AI workflows, Aleph helps you move faster with real-time insights. Get a personalized demo at https://www.getaleph.com/run—LINKS: CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 SpaceX S1 breakdown0:50 Elon's Mars colony comp plan2:03 Common control accounting: SpaceX + xAI + X3:04 What SpaceX actually does3:43 How reusable rockets work4:24 Launch cost curve: foundation of everything5:49 Launch services: $8B, 85% of global launches6:44 Starlink: $11.4B, 63% EBITDA margins7:36 xAI and X: burning $1B/month8:22 Sponsors — RightRev | Rillet | EY11:18 Colossus and orbital AI thesis11:41 Revenue, segments and CapEx breakdown14:54 RPO: $28.4B backlog15:18 Starlink subscribers and ARPU decline16:01 Target valuation: $1.5–1.75 trillion16:47 Starlink deep dive18:05 International pricing strategy21:38 The consolidated entity problem22:28 Related party section: nine pages22:32 Sponsors — SpendHound | Brex | Aleph26:15 Valor Equity: $20B in equipment leases27:05 Tesla cross-ownership and Terrafab28:23 R&D: $8.6B, 46% of revenue30:33 Starship: key risk and growth linchpin31:41 Red flag 1: CEO comp tied to Mars colony32:22 Red flag 2: Musk concentration risk32:49 Red flag 3: Cursor option — $10B downside33:36 Red flag 4: X advertising is shrinking34:06 IPO structure and SPCX ticker34:50 30% retail allocation, no lockups35:44 S&P 500 inclusion forces buying within 15 days37:54 Valuation: 60–70x forward revenue38:43 Peer comparison39:44 What you're buying at $1.5T40:53 CFO comp: the only sane plan in the filing41:25 Bitcoin on the balance sheet41:57 Credits

This week's Excess Returns Weekly Wrap breaks down the biggest investing lessons from our conversations with Cliff Asness, Andy Constan, Gene Munster, Doug Clinton, and Ben Carlson. Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler discuss volatility, bubble regimes, AI infrastructure, private equity risk, investor behavior, and why doing nothing is often harder than it looks.Main topics covered:Cliff Asness on why volatility is not a perfect risk measure, but still matters for real investorsThe limits of defining risk only as permanent loss of capitalAndy Constan on why bubbles can feel low risk because they trend with low volatilityHow leverage, confidence, and investor behavior can inflate bubble regimesGene Munster and Doug Clinton on AI, electricity, data centers, hyperscaler CapEx, and energy demandWhy AI infrastructure constraints may affect whether the AI boom becomes a classic bubbleBen Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and why investors often fear the wrong thingsCliff Asness on private equity, volatility laundering, and the illusion of smooth returnsAndy Constan on what active investors should do in bubble regimes and why mean reversion can failDoug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI job disruption, knowledge workers, and how to adaptBen Carlson on action bias, penalty kicks, and why doing nothing can be the hardest investing decisionTimestamps:00:00 Intro and the week's biggest investing clips03:37 Cliff Asness on volatility, risk, and permanent loss of capital10:16 Andy Constan on why low volatility can make bubbles more dangerous20:41 Gene Munster and Doug Clinton on turning electricity into intelligence25:11 Why AI power constraints may change the bubble debate30:39 Ben Carlson on Shark Week, vivid risks, and investor attention35:44 Cliff Asness on private equity and volatility laundering43:42 Andy Constan on alpha, sizing down, and trading in bubbles50:06 Doug Clinton and Gene Munster on AI, jobs, and knowledge workers57:55 AI blind spots, token subsidies, and old tech investing frameworks59:58 Ben Carlson on penalty kicks, action bias, and doing nothing01:04:45 Quant lessons in sports, the Knicks, and closing thoughts

The conclusion of our two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit looks at structural shifts in Japan's economy and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's strategic growth agenda.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. This is Part 2 of our podcast from the Japan Summit.It's Friday, May 22nd at 8 am in Tokyo.I might stick with equities for just a minute, and Sho, just to dig deeper into the equity market. Jonathan expressed some of the bullishness. Anything you want to elaborate on where the real strong conviction on this positive view about Japanese equities is coming from?And then just as a warning, I'm going to come back to you and ask, if you're wrong, where could you be wrong? Because again, I think where we add value most to clients is not just giving a clear view, but also pressure testing that view.Sho Nakazawa: Our constructive view on Japan equities comes down to one simple point. Three structural changes are still continuing. So, the first is shifting macro environment. The combination of stable inflation and wage growth is a kind of phenomenon we have not seen, at least in my lifetime. It changes corporates and households' behavior, especially in terms of balance sheet management.And then secondly, the corporates profit improvements. We do not see it as a cyclical recovery. We see it as a structural change. As in the past, Japan corporates heavily relied on cost-cutting amid a deflationary environment. But today, price pass-through is improving, and the Japan corporates are becoming better positioned in growth profit in nominal growth environment.The third is corporate governance reform. Awareness of the capital efficiency has clearly increased. We continue to see share buybacks, dividends increase, and a portfolio restructuring as well. And on top of that, the Takaichi administration has made growth investment and crisis management investment as well.Of course, the Middle East situation is a source of noise. But structurally is a supporting factor for Japan equities secular bear market, which is a view Jonathan has held for very long time, has actually becoming stronger.But let me say that if I'm wrong, maybe I should be more bullish. In fact, the two key drivers here, if we assess the bear case scenario on Japan equities…So, one key driver should be the upside come from the investors constructive view on the Japan fiscal efficiency. And on a micro level, the corporate behavior changing faster than market expects. If we assess the recent rise in long-term yields, it reflect the concern to the Japan fiscal position and that BoJ behind the curve.It would weigh on the Japan equity valuation because it raises cost of capital and it weighs on the Japan equity valuation. But on the other hand, [the] Japanese government will disclose its basic policy in June. And if it could include a credible plan to improve Japan's fiscal positions, perhaps under Japan version of DOGE, which is led by Financial Minister Katayama-san, I think it could alleviate the excessive concern toward the Japan's fiscal position, and it [could] lower the cost of capital on Japan equities.You know, micro level, the corporates behavior is already changing, as I mentioned. But there's still plenty, you know, space for Japan corporates to utilize non-cash generating assets such as cash and deposit, which is equivalent to 60 percent of GDP. The ratio is far higher than our global peers.So, if Japan corporates move further to capital efficiency or portfolio restructuring or use some excess capital, I think there should be additional room for Japan equity market to re-rate higher.Seth Carpenter: All right. So, if you're wrong, it's insufficient bullishness. That's a great place to be.So, so Koichi, Jonathan and Sho are bullish on equities. And so, do you expect big shift in capital flows, and would that drive further appreciation of the currency? How do you think about the global investors' view of Japan? And what it means for capital flows on the one hand, and the value of the currency on the other?Koichi Sugisaki: As for the capital flows, I think under this fresh regime, what's the notable change among the Japanese financials? That they are shifting away from the fixed income product, I mean, like JGBs.Given the current attractive yields, you maybe wonder[ing] why the banking sectors buy the JGBs. But according to the recent disclosures, they have not purchased the JGBs much because their lending activity performed very well. So, as far as their lending activity have performed well, they have no incentive to make money in the securities investment.You know, their lending activity have accelerated thanks to the corporate CapEx investment to improve the productivity amidst the labor shortages in Japan. Once the banking sector starts to see some slowdown or some symptom of the lending activity to slow down, in such a case, they are quickly shifted to the securities investment and the JGB market will change the world.But so far, you know, lending growth [has] accelerated much. You know, the April lending growth is around 6 percent on the year-on-year basis, very strong. So, I think the banking sector still not have a[n] incentive to buy the JGBs.As for the lifers, [the] case is much more serious, I think. Because of the younger ages shifting towards the equities to defend the asset, particularly under the new NISA scheme [which] was launched in 2024. The younger peoples basically allocate their asset to the equities rather than the saving type of the products.Which means that the lifers are struggling to make, to gather the new monies. And this means that the demand for the long-term JGB to shrink. And the Japan lifers already filled the duration this much by 2023 to prepare for the new regulations starting from this fiscal year. Now, fortunately, they already finished the duration this much, this type of operation by 2023. But the yield [has] gone up from 2024, thanks to the BoJ's normalization.So, under such conditions, they are now struggling to the high market loss on the long-term JGBs. And some of lifers are now facing the impairment loss accounting. That actually [makes] lifers a net seller of the long-term JGBs rather than the buyers.Seth Carpenter: Okay, super helpful. Okay, we focused a lot on near-term developments, the energy shock, first quarter GDP. But we can think about a longer-term growth scenario. And there, I think AI comes in at times. Chetan, you've talked about the near-term super cycle, and I think there's a near-term aggregate demand side to AI, but over the longer term, maybe it's more supply.When I think about where growth is going, though, I also think about shifts in the strategy for policy. So maybe Yamaguchi-san, you can talk to me a bit on your take of Prime Minister Takaichi's policies. What do we think is likely to get announced? When? How do you see it affecting the long-term growth outlook for Japan?Takeshi Yamaguchi: [The] Japanese government publishes growth strategy report and the basic policy on fiscal management or honebuto policy in June every year. But I think this year's, you know, documents will be pretty important because these are the first documents under the Takaichi administration.And these documents will set the direction of economic policy by Takaichi-san, Sanae Takaichi. Or Sanae-nomics. Compared with Abenomics, I think Takaichi-san focuses more on the supply side issues, you know, supply domestic investment. While Abenomics focused more on the exit from deflation, focusing on demand side policy, particularly, you know, monetary easing.In the growth strategy report, the focus will be strategic investment in 17 strategic areas, including AI, especially, you know, AI robotics, semiconductors, defense and space, cybersecurity, and content industry and so on.Another important point of Sanaeconomic system, there's overlap between these strategic investment areas and national securities. The government will also update its defense strategy by the end of this year, and there'll be a increase in the defense budget target. The focus will be a lot on, you know, I think, dual use technologies, and also resilience of supply chains going ahead.Another important point is, I think there will be a change in the budget formation process. I think, under deflation there's effectively cap on non-social security spending. But I think this government will likely allocate budget, you know, for multi-investment. So, I think the budget process will be more flexible. And they put more emphasis on the initial budget rather than the supplementary budget.So, I think, these documents will be pretty important to monitor going ahead. But overall, I think, the government – yes, they do care about the market conditions. They will likely avoid massive, you know, expansion. But I think a slight expansion, especially in the area of strategic investment is likely to happen.Seth Carpenter: Very helpful. Alright, that's the end of the panel. Thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much, everybody.

Recorded live at the Morgan Stanley and MUFG Japan Summit, our Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research Seth Carpenter led a discussion on Asia's exposure to the energy shock and Japan's bullish outlook.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And on today's episode, we're bringing you a live taping direct from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit to discuss the macroeconomic overlook. And, in particular, Japan's moment: reflation, reform, and the case for a structural re-rating. I am joined by Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist; Takeshi Yamaguchi, our Chief Japan Economist; Jonathan Garner, our Chief Asia and EM Equity Strategist; Koichi Sugisaki, who is our Head of Japan Macro Strategy; and Sho Nakazawa, who is our Japan Equity Strategist. Seth Carpenter: I will say we have just collectively published our mid-year outlook. So twice a year, Morgan Stanley Macro Research puts together our forecast. We take the time to debate with each other, to pressure test our views on the outlook for the next year and a half to two years. And I have to say this version of the outlook process may have been the most difficult one that I can remember. And in no small part because one of the key fundamental drivers of the outlook globally for growth, for inflation is oil, oil prices. And the swings there have been pretty dramatic. And so, as a result, we put a lot of effort into not just our baseline forecast, but also scenarios and the ways in which our baseline forecast could be wrong. But Chetan, let me start with you. Tell us a little bit about the exposure in Asia to, to the energy shock. Chetan Ahya: So Seth, you're right. Asia is one of the more exposed part of the world. But I would say that we've been surprised in the way this energy shock has been managed. One is, of course, at the global level, two big swings happened. US exports increased dramatically by 3.8 million barrels per day. Just to give you perspective, global consumption of oil is about 100 million barrels, so it's simple math in terms of how big this number was. And then China parallelly also reduced its imports by 3.5 million barrels. So, we had a 7 million barrel swing from a global oil demand balance perspective.And, secondly, as far as gas is concerned, that is where actually we were more concerned about Asia because Asia was very dependent on Middle Eastern gas. And on that front, China single-handedly has bailed out the region. So, China cut its gas imports by about 45 percent, and that had at least avoided the shortages that we were worried about. We can manage oil prices, but shortages is something very difficult to manage. So that's at the global level. And within the region, what every economy did is to switch to an alternative source of fuel, whether it is electricity generated through coal or other renewable sources. And particularly that happened in China and India, which are the two big importers of fuel in the region.And then additionally, what we also saw is that everybody managed the fuel price increase quite well. So, on an average, if I look at the stats as of today, only about 25 to 30 percent of the underlying fuel price increase has been passed on to the consumer. So, the governments are taking it, so there is a burden on the fiscal front that is building up. But as far as the consumers are concerned, this has been a help, and therefore you have not seen a big spike in inflation across the region. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So, a lot of comments about Asia in general. Let's go more specific to here in Japan. And so, Yamaguchi-san, you were an early adopter of the Japan reflation view. If we go back a year, two years, three years, you were probably more optimistic, more bullish about growth in the market than consensus. More recently, you've been a little bit more cautious about where growth is going. And so, can you tell us a little bit first why you're a bit more cautious now relative to where I suspect the market is? And then when it comes to the energy shock, how do you see it playing out with the Japanese economy? And should we worry about it derailing this whole reflation trade? Takeshi Yamaguchi: We think Japanese underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that, you know, nominal GDP recovery will continue as a trend. But for this year, I think there's a, you know, short-term slowdown, both in terms of real GDP growth and nominal GDP growth, due to the terms of a trade shock. So far, you know, thanks to the government energy subsidies and Japan's relatively large strategic oil reserves, the direct impact on households has been limited. But we are already seeing a big increase in producer prices in the April data. It jumped to 4.9 percent {year-over-year], and we expect this producer price index will continue to go up due to the higher oil prices, but also because of the NAFTA-related supply side, you know, disruptions in areas, you know, such as, you know, construction materials, plastic products, and industrial solvents and so on. That said, we still believe that, you know, underlying economic fundamentals remain resilient in the sense that there's a structural labor shortage. So, wage growth may somewhat slow, but still I think a solid, you know, base up increase will continue next year, especially among young workers. Also, I think this structural tight labor market [is] encouraging companies to step up labor-saving investment. And, I think, together with government's initiatives for domestic investment, I think, domestic CapEx will also likely remain resilient. So, this year for nominal GDP growth, we expect, you know, slightly negative growth due to the terms of trade loss. But the next year, we are expecting above 4 percent nominal GDP growth. So, the overall, you know, story remains unchanged despite the short-term headwinds. Seth Carpenter: Okay. So fundamental story remains unchanged. We're pretty optimistic, but it's a matter of long term versus short term Jonathan, let me turn to you. Equity markets are generally optimistic, I would say, these days, but there is a bit of a divergence between views on equities here in Asia, between Japan on the one hand, and EM overall. In the mid-year outlook, you have expressed a preference for Japanese equities over EM. Can you talk a little bit about that view? Why that preference? Are there sectors or specific stocks that matter more? How are you thinking about this sort of allocation across equity markets for you in Asia? Jonathan Garner: So, certainly, as Seth indicated and Chetan and Yamaguchi-san said, it's really an environment where the sector call, particularly the CapEx, super cycle call should drive portfolios. And that naturally leads you in Asia more to North Asia, where Japan is very richly endowed in beneficiaries of the CapEx super cycle. And obviously markets like Korea and Taiwan, and much less so to South Asia, where the larger markets are much more populated by consumer and services stocks. So, in our portfolio, we're essentially overweight capital spending, underweight the consumer. And when you look at the Japan market, one of the things that my colleague Daniel Blake has done a lot of work is, is the sort of thematic exposures that exist within our coverage. The four core Morgan Stanley research themes of multipolar world, AI, tech diffusion, future of energy and societal shifts, they map into about 75 percent by stock number of our coverage for the Japan market, and they're quite nicely distributed across the stock coverage. Obviously, some stocks have more than one aspect to them. And that is highly advantageous and much more advantageous than in fact any other large market. Europe of course, doesn't have AI, tech diffusion, or it largely lacks the beneficiaries, the upstream beneficiaries. The US has legacy, sort of, software service, business models and consumer exposure. Now, it's not to say that all is sort of rosy in the garden. There are large auto OEMs here in Japan where the earnings numbers are challenged. So, it's all about the kind of the dispersion that's going on within the portfolio. But just on the base case targets, 4300 for topics, that's set by Nakazawa-san and myself. It's about 12 percent upside in the base. In the two weeks since we published the report, EM has fallen back somewhat, so there's about 8 percent upside to our EM target. But on a kind of risk-adjusted bull-bear skew, bear in mind that EM is much more skewed in terms of the earnings drivers of that market. Essentially, if you strip Korea and Taiwan out, there's no earnings growth in EM right now. You would ultimately have to favor Japan. So, Japan should be at the core of any Asia portfolio at the moment. Seth Carpenter: And can you just give us a little insight as to what you're seeing about how the market is or maybe is not pricing the threat from the energy shock? What are you seeing in equity markets, top line, down into sectors? Do you think there's enough concern? Do you think there's room for that to get, sort of, rerated just on the energy shock situation? Jonathan Garner: So, what you're seeing is that anything that is consumer-related is really struggling in terms of revisions. I think there are six different subcomponents of the consumer that we can track. Every single one of them has downgrades. And the upgrades are in energy, upstream energy, which isn't that well represented in Japan. There are a couple of names. In materials, really across the board. In semis and IT across the board, and broadly, tech hardware. And then in the defense capital goods space. And that dispersion in revisions within the Japan market or within Asia as a whole is something that I've never seen before.It does maybe to some extent question the resilience of the consumer in terms of the way that the numbers are being downgraded. So, I'll just leave that hanging a little bit. Seth Carpenter: Alright, thank you very much to my colleagues. And this is where I have to shift back into podcast mode to say thank you for listening. And if you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please share it with a colleague or friend today. Thank you very much everybody. Voice: That was Part 1 of a special two-part episode from Morgan Stanley and MUFG's Japan Summit. Join us tomorrow for Part 2 of the conversation.

The AI economy looks unstoppable on the surface, but what is really happening underneath? Lance Roberts and Michael Lebowitz break down the massive surge in AI infrastructure spending, the role of hyperscaler CapEx in driving GDP growth, and whether AI is creating a stronger economy or masking deeper structural weaknesses. Here's a topical rundown of today's show: 0:00 - INTRO 0:53 - NVIDIA, AI, & Streamlining Workforce 5:41 - Market Sell Signals and Chances for Summer Correction 10:10 - Weakness in Economic Data is Transitory 14:53 - Oil Price Economic Impact - When Does it Hit? 16:36 - The AI Economy -Beyond the Hype 19:52 - How Will AI-generated Productivity Work Through Economy? 22:33 - Data Center Spending Impact on GDP Growth 26:41 - GDP per Capita per US States vs Internationals 29:40 - Every Economy Has a "K" 31:07 - What AI Can Do For You 32:33 - When Dire Predictions Don't Come True 35:52 - ...this doesn't mean we can't have a recession 37:44 - Points to Ponder from Latest NVIDIA Report 38:47 - Space-X (SPCX) IPO Preview Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "The AI Economy: Looking Beyond The Facade Part 1" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-ai-economy-looking-beyond-the-facade-part-1/ "The NVDA Earnings Report: Could It Pop The Gamma Bubble?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/the-nvda-earnings-report-could-it-pop-the-gamma-bubble/ ------- Do you enjoy our content? Rate us on Google: https://bit.ly/4b9JtEo ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://youtube.com/live/TeIhoqBT8dg ------- Watch today's "Before the Bell" feature, "Momentum Pause Before Summer Rally?" here: https://youtu.be/oWiPrlAYz5A ------- Watch our previous show, "Q&A Wednesday - Straight Talk About Your Money" https://youtube.com/live/ngEmjqsUFTY ------- * REGISTER for our next Dynamic Learning Series presentation, "A SimpleVisor Tutorial," Thursday, June 4, 2025 at Noon: https://streamyard.com/watch/MwairsimgmnS -------- Download Lance's Latest e-book, "Laws of Money & Wealth:"https://realinvestmentadvice.com/ria-e-guide-library/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #StockMarket #MarketCorrection #SP500 #Investing #MarketOutlook #ArtificialIntelligence #AIeconomy #StockMarket #EconomicOutlook #TechnologyStocks

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Chief UK Economist Bruna Skarica discuss why they see a more constructive UK outlook than markets do, despite energy, fiscal and political risks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Bruna Skarica: And I'm Bruna Skarica, Morgan Stanley's Chief UK Economist. Andrew Sheets: Today, the debate around growth and debt in the United Kingdom. It's Wednesday, May 20th at 2pm in London. Bruna, I'm so glad you could join us today because I actually really did want to talk about what's going on here in the United Kingdom. I don't think it's an exaggeration to say that this is the country where you hear some of the strongest divergence of opinions. Pessimists point to political uncertainty, vulnerability to oil prices from the Strait of Hormuz, and rising bond yields. And yet, UK growth this year has been pretty good. Inflation is set to come down, and the currency's been pretty stable, hardly the stuff of big instability. So, Bruna, I was hoping you could help us set the scene. Let's start with how you see the economy. Bruna Skarica: I actually think your framing is perfect. For the past five years, there has been a striking divergence of opinion on the UK, which I do think mimics to a degree some of the divisions on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee. The question really is – has the country underwent structural changes in the past decade of supply-side shocks such that its potential growth is very low, perhaps as low as 1 percent on the year. And has the inflationary process shifted in such a way that, for example, we need much higher jobless rate in order to generate enough economic slack to get inflation down to 2 percent? Or the other question is, has the UK just had a unique string of external shocks amplified perhaps by domestic policy choices, which mean that we have seen a prolonged period of low growth and high inflation – but again, without major structural changes. We are in the more constructive structural camp. I actually think that's probably Morgan Stanley's biggest out of consensus call in the UK. In recent years in particular, we have seen quite robust CapEx. And last year, actually very healthy private sector productivity gains. When you adjust for accurate labor market data, UK's private sector productivity growth is just under 2 percent as of the end of 2025, actually not too far off from the U.S. But for these good structural trends to persist and continue to improve, we do need a more supportive cyclical environment. And there, unfortunately, given the rise in oil prices, it's hard to be overly constructive about growth and inflation in the UK this year. We've downgraded our growth forecasts to around 1 percent over [20]26 and [20]27, and we have lifted our inflation projections by around 150 basis points at their peak to a peak of around 3.5 percent later in the year. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, how much does the price of oil or the price of natural gas matter for this outlook, especially as the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively shut? Bruna Skarica: It does matter a fair bit. We use Morgan Stanley's commodity team's forecasts in our own scenario analyses for the UK economy. Now, their base case still sees a gentle decline in oil prices this year, which leads to outcomes I've already mentioned. The activity flatlines from the second quarter, we have a rise in inflation from April onwards, but we don't have a recession. However, if we fail to see any movement lower in oil, and as you rightly pointed out, natural gas prices as well; or if we even saw a move higher over the summer, we do think that risks of a recession would be quite pronounced in the second half of the year. UK consumers are already in for a year of flat real disposable income growth. Higher prices of food and energy than in our base case could result in even lower discretionary spending growth than what we're already modeling. And if the Bank of England had to hike rates in this inflationary scenario, we think they would act twice in this kind of a scenario. We also have these tight financial conditions which would weigh on household spending. Andrew Sheets: So, Bruna, I think that's a great segue into that out-of-consensus call that we have on the Bank of England. You know, the market is expecting the Bank of England to raise interest rates. We think that they'll be on hold. And if you take a step back, it's a view that, kind of, puts the UK and the Bank of England a little bit between the Federal Reserve, which we think is going to be lowering rates over the next twelve months modestly, and the European Central Bank, which we think will raise rates in the near term. Could you talk a bit more about why you think it will remain on hold? And why you differ from what the market's seeing? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, in our base case, the one where we do see a bit of a decline in oil and gas prices over the course of this year, we think the Bank of England remains on hold. It's important to remember that they were about to cut rates, prior to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. So, there is a bit of restrictiveness there in the starting stance, which we think can just be maintained for a longer period of time than would've otherwise been the case. And so, for the Bank of England to avoid having to tighten rates. Now, with respect to the market, I think it's fair to say that the market price is a probability-weighted outcome, where there is some chance, a non-negligible one, that the Bank of England will have to hike rates aggressively if oil prices were to rise from here. To give you a bit of clarity here, bank's own analyses suggests that in a scenario where oil prices were to rise towards $130 per barrel and stay there for a few months, the bank could hike rates by four times. Now, it's interesting that in this scenario, the bank actually doesn't forecast a recession. Now, we think that in the case of such elevated commodity prices, as I've already mentioned, we would certainly see high inflation, potentially as high as 6 percent, but also recessionary impulses. So, even in the scenario of elevated oil prices, we think the bank could only deliver around two hikes. And so, this kind of probability-weighted outcome that we have, which differs a little bit from our model case, even that is actually fairly lower than what the market is pricing. So, I think that's maybe one of the main differences that we have versus the market. The market is expecting a repeat of 2022, so elevated inflation with growth just about holding on. We disagree that's possible because there's far less scope for a fiscal response to shield growth from an inflationary external shock. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, maybe I'll take even a bigger step back here because to borrow a British phrase, it almost seems like some of these debates over oil prices are kind of small beer compared to these two big questions around the UK. Which are, you know, concerns over a lack of productivity growth and concerns that the UK economy is just, kind of, poorly positioned over the long term – especially in the wake of Brexit and concern over the fiscal situation. And this idea that, well, government debt is historically high for the UK, concern that that will continue. And I think it's no exaggeration to say that when you talk to investors about the UK, those are often, kind of, two of the big questions that hang over the debate. So, your brief thoughts on both of those issues. And again, where you think the market might be potentially surprised? Bruna Skarica: So, one of the most interesting things when I talk to clients is when I mention some of these statistics around measured cyclical productivity growth last year, they're often very, very surprised. And we do think it's more important to talk about this because there is evidence, I would say nascent evidence, that UK is benefiting from the AI tailwind. We are seeing more CapEx adoption. We are seeing slower hiring, but more resilient growth, which, as I say, results in cyclical productivity growth that looks very robust, especially in UK's historical context. In the last ten years, of course, UK's productivity growth has been very lackluster. So, over the course of this year, I think that's actually my primary focus to see how much of this uplift in productivity last year is cyclical and perhaps will dissipate over 2026 with the slowdown in growth. And how much of it was actually structural. Now, in terms of the fiscal question, you know, one thing that's interesting to mention is the UK is, per IMF calculations, in the middle of the most severe fiscal consolidation amongst its G7 peers. Medium-term fiscal plans deliver a decline in deficit to below 2 percent of GDP by 2030. Again, this is hard to square with gilt yields where they currently stand. So, it's fair to say that the market is just more focused on the risks of delivery. For example, departmental spending settlements look challenging to deliver. Ministry of Defense is looking for a [£]30 billion top-up to its budgets. Labor backbenchers have recently come out seeking for a bit more capital expenditure. Political volatility is high. We are actually quite confident around our 2026 fiscal forecasts. We're looking for a deficit at 4 percent. But when it comes to 2027, I think it's fair to say that risks here really depend on the political trajectory with risks skewed, I think, towards a slightly higher deficit than around 3.5 percent, which we have in our base case. Andrew Sheets: But Bruna, just to be very direct, is it fair to say that for investors who are very concerned about productivity growth in the UK, you'd argue that that actually could be a bit better than people are expecting as capital deepens? And that for investors afraid of the fiscal trajectory, that actually could be one of the best fiscal trajectories In the G7? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, one of our recent outlook titles was “Everything is Relative,” and that's exactly the point that we always try to make with the UK. It seems like it has a lot of idiosyncratic fiscal problems, but I would say a lot of its fiscal challenges are very similar to other DM countries – demographic aging, slowing in potential GDP growth. And when it comes to productivity growth, I'm not trying to argue that we're likely to see UK's potential GDP growth in excess of 2 percent anytime soon. However, we do think that the picture is actually much better in terms of productivity growth than perhaps what the average market participants think is the case. Andrew Sheets: Finally, Bruna, just a word on politics. I'm mindful that we have a global audience. And for those less steeped in the latest UK news, what's been happening? And what are the developments that investors are watching out for? Bruna Skarica: Yeah, absolutely. So, we had local elections in the UK in early May, and they delivered quite sizable losses for the governing Labour Party. Since then, a number of Labour MPs, Members of Parliament, just under 100 of them, called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign. Now, challenging a Labour leader and a prime minister in this case is not an easy process to trigger.However, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham is now looking to enter the House of Commons. He will be contesting a by-election, most likely on June 18th. I would say that's the key date to watch out for from here. Andy Burnham has previously said UK politicians should be less focused on the bond market, but perhaps it's worth reiterating. More recently, he said he supports the current fiscal rules, which of course require debt-to-GDP ratio to be on the declining trajectory over the next five years. Now, Andrew, for you, what stands out in the pricing of the UK story? Andrew Sheets: Well, Bruna, I really think this is the country where across everything that we look at, there's the biggest gap, I think, between kind of conventional wisdom and what we at Morgan Stanley are forecasting.The market's conventional wisdom is that productivity growth is going to be very weak and very bad. That's not what you see in the numbers and is in our forecast. The market thinks the government finances are very weak. As you mentioned, relative to the G7, they're on a pretty good trajectory and at a pretty good level. And I think this is also a market where you have some interesting risk premium. I mean, again, we talk a lot in this podcast about how little risk premium there is in a lot of different asset classes. That's not the case in the UK. The government bond market, in our view, is offering a lot of risk premium to take on the risk of owning the government debt. And, you know, one example of that is, you know, you look at what interest rate is implied on a UK 10-year government bond 10 years from now. It's implying that yield is 6.6 percent. That's a very high yield, especially if you think that growth is going to be weak in this country. So, I think it's a really interesting macro story. It's one certainly where we at Morgan Stanley differ, and where there's some risk premium on offer. So, I'm so glad you could join us today to dig into it in more detail. Bruna Skarica: Absolutely. Thank you so much for the invite. Andrew Sheets: And thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

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