Podcasts about capex

What happens when a flex workspace veteran with decades of global experience decides the future isn't about branded coworking takeovers—but about making flex invisible so the building itself can thrive? In this episode, Andrea Pirrotti, Head of Real Estate at infinitSpace, shares her unconventional approach to helping landlords activate underutilized space without heavy CapEx, long lease-up timelines, or the friction that comes with traditional flex operators. Andrea's background is extensive—she ran global marketing for IWG across 65 countries, led operations at Office Evolution, and now she's bringing a Dutch operator's profitable, partnership-first model to the Americas. We cover: Why spec suites look like a solution but often lose money for landlords How infinitSpace's semi-white-label model (Beyond) blends into a building's existing design and brand The fatal mistakes operators make that Andrea's team capitalizes on when taking over failed spaces Why "high optics, low friction" (like a barista at the entrance) creates outsized value without blowing budgets The magic 10% rule: why every building should dedicate at least 10% of inventory to flex Why banks still don't know how to value flex revenue—and what needs to change If you're a landlord wondering whether flex makes sense for your building, or an operator curious about partnership models that actually work, this conversation is essential listening. Resources Mentioned in this Episode: Andrea Pirrotti on LinkedIn infinitSpace website Everything Coworking Featured Resources: Masterclass: 3 Behind-the-Scenes Secrets to Opening a Coworking Space Coworking Startup School Community Manager University Follow Us on YouTube

Our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur responds to some of the feedback from clients on Morgan Stanley's 2026 global outlooks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist. Today, I consider the pushback we've received on our 2026 outlooks – distilling the themes that drew the most debate and our responses to the debates. It's Tuesday, Dec 16th at 3:30pm in New York. It's been a few weeks [since] we published our 2026 outlooks for the global economy and markets. We've had lots of wide-ranging conversations, much dialogue and debate with our clients across the globe on the key themes that we laid out in our outlook. Feedback has ranged from strong alignment to pointed disagreement, with many nuanced views in between. We welcome this dialogue, especially the pushback, as it forces us to re-examine our assumptions and refine our thinking. Our constructive stance on AI and data center-related CapEx, along with the pivotal role we see for the credit market channels, drew notable scrutiny. Our 2026 CapEx projections was anchored by a strong conviction – that demand for compute will far outstrip the supply over the next several years. We remain confident that credit markets across unsecured, structured, and securitized instruments in both public and private domains will be central to the financing of the next wave of AI-driven investments. The crucial point here is that we think this spending will be relatively insensitive to the macro conditions, i.e., the level of interest rates and economic growth. Regarding the level of AI investment, we received a bit of pushback on our economics forecast: Why don't we forecast even more growth from AI CapEx? From our perspective, that is going to be a multi-year process, so the growth implications also extend over time. Our U.S. credit strategists' forecast for IG bond supply – $2.25 trillion in gross issuance; that's up 25 percent year-over-year, or $1 trillion in net issuance; that's 60 percent year-over-year – garnered significant attention. There was some pushback to the volume of the issuance we project. As CapEx growth outpaces revenue and pressures free cash flow, credit becomes a key financing bridge. Importantly, AI is not the sole driver of the surge that we forecast. A pick-up in M&A activity and the resulting increase in acquisition-driven IG supply also will play a key role, in our view. We also received pushback on our expectation for modest widening in credit spreads, roughly 15 basis points in investment grade, which we still think will remain near the low end of the historical ranges despite this massive surge in supply. Some clients argued for more widening, but we note that the bulk of the AI-related issuance will come from high-quality – you know AAA-AA rated issuers – which are currently underrepresented in credit markets relative to their equity market weight. Additionally, continued policy easing – two more rate cuts – modest economic re-acceleration, and persistent demand from yield-focused buyers should help to anchor the spreads. Our macro strategists' framing of 2026 as a transition year for global rates – from synchronized tightening to asynchronous normalization as central banks approach equilibrium – was broadly well received, as was their call for government bond yields to remain broadly range-bound. However, their view that markets will price in a dovish tilt to Fed policy sparked considerable debate. While there was broad agreement on the outlook for yield curve steepening, the nature of that steepening – bull steepening or bear steepening – remained a point of contention. Outside the U.S., the biggest pushback was to the call on the ECB cutting rates two more times in 2026. Our economists disagreed with President Lagarde – that the disinflationary process has ended. Even with moderate continued euro area growth on German fiscal expansion, but consolidation elsewhere, we still see an output gap that will eventually lead inflation to undershoot the ECB's 2 percent target. We also engaged in lively dialogue and debate on China. The key debate here comes down to a micro versus macro story. Put differently, the market is not the economy and the economy is not the market. Sentiment on investments in China has turned around this year, and our strategists are on board with that view. However, from an economics point of view, we see deflation continuing and fiscal policy from Beijing as a bit too modest to spark near-term reflation. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

In this episode of Tech Talks Daily, I'm joined by Stuart Thompson, President of ABB's Electrification Service Division, to explore the intersection of industrial sustainability, energy security, and cutting-edge technology.   As industries face growing energy demands and climate targets, Stuart explains how companies can modernize their infrastructure to drive efficiency, reduce carbon footprints, and stay ahead of the energy curve.   Navigating the Industrial Sustainability Challenge   We start by addressing the urgent need for industries to rethink their energy and carbon strategies. Stuart highlights the significant role of construction and manufacturing in global energy-related emissions, stressing that many businesses are still behind on their 2030 sustainability targets.   We dive into the emerging shift from capital expenditure (CapEx) to operational expenditure (OpEx) models, such as predictive maintenance, to maximize value from existing assets.   Asset Modernization   Stuart explains how asset modernization—upgrading intelligent components like switchgear within existing infrastructure—can dramatically improve efficiency and reduce carbon without the need for costly, full-scale replacements.   He also shares examples, including Intel's semiconductor upgrades and Jadal Steel's success in Oman, demonstrating how targeted upgrades can meet sustainability goals while boosting productivity.   Smarter Energy Management with AI and AR   We explore how AI and augmented reality (AR) are transforming service delivery and operational intelligence. Stuart discusses how AI-powered predictive maintenance helps companies anticipate failures and optimize energy management, while AR facilitates remote assistance for faster issue resolution.   He also touches on how these technologies contribute to energy savings and carbon reduction by automating service reports and enabling real-time visibility into asset performance.   BESS as a Service: Solving the Energy Security Trilemma One of the key innovations Stuart highlights is ABB's Battery Energy Storage as a Service (BESSaaS), a solution designed to solve the "energy trilemma" of security, cost, and sustainability.   With on-site battery storage and AI-driven energy trading, businesses can bypass slow grid connections, ensure energy security, and even turn their energy storage into a profit center. This model is already making waves in industries ranging from data centers to manufacturing.   A Glimpse into the Future: ABB's Investment in Asset Management Tech   As we look to the future, Stuart reveals ABB's upcoming investment in asset management technology, set to be announced globally in early December 2025. This exciting move will have a significant impact on major customers like the London Underground and Saudi Electric Commission, further cementing ABB's role as a leader in energy innovation.   Don't miss this episode, where we discuss the latest trends in industrial sustainability, energy security, and technology's pivotal role in shaping a greener, more efficient future.   Useful Links Connect with Stuart on Linkedin Learn more about ABB Tech Talks Daily is sponsored by Denodo

Ann Miletti believes there's "noise" in the last two months of economic data but see the economy in "pretty good shape" for 2026. On expectations for the next year, Ann sees CapEx spending increasing and stimulus adding to the consumer picture, bolstered by interest rate cuts from the FOMC. She gives her top 6 predictions for 2026, from an acceleration in SMID caps and M&A activity to seeing room to run in emerging markets. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Ann Berry is joined in-studio by CLEAR's CEO Caryn Seidman Becker They review the company's latest quarter, the rollout of eGates and how the company is preparing for global expansion. Caryn shares what's driving CLEAR's growth across travel and enterprise, why healthcare is a major unlock and the ways digital identity is becoming a core layer of modern life. Highlights include: CLEAR's origin story and buyout from bankruptcy plus how the company navigated this fall's government shutdown. 00:00 — Caryn Seidman Becker Joins 00:53 — What's Powering Clear's Momentum 01:49 — eGates, CapEx & Free Cash Flow 02:13 — Airport Footprint & Expansion Plans 04:36 — Fixing Wait Times & Member Experience 06:07 — Travel During the Shutdown 07:23 — Signing Documents With Your Face 09:05 — DeepFakes & Identity Security 10:56 — Government Tech & Verification 11:19 — CLEAR in Entertainment & Events 13:21 — Cybersecurity & Holding Less Data 14:16 — Healthcare & “Killing the Clipboard” 18:49 — Global Travelers & Compliance 19:44 — Clear's Origin Story 23:59 — Stock Price, Buybacks & Free Cash Flow 25:44 — M&A Outlook After Earnings is brought to you by Stakeholder Labs and Morning Brew. For more go to https://www.afterearnings.com Follow Us X: https://twitter.com/AfterEarnings TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@AfterEarnings Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/afterearnings_/ Reach Out Email: afterearnings@morningbrew.com $YOU Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to scale from a bold idea to a beverage category leader? We sit down with Athletic Brewing's CFO Evan Zawatsky and communications leader Chris Furnari to dig into the decisions that powered Athletic's rise: owning production, investing in quality, and building a marketing engine that turns awareness into velocity.Evan opens the playbook on why Athletic poured serious CapEx into state-of-the-art breweries in Connecticut and San Diego. That move secured quality control, unlocked flavor innovation, improved margins, and gave the team agility to grow without supply constraints. Chris explains how the brand story evolved from convincing people to try non-alcoholic beer to showing who it's for: active, balance-minded drinkers who want great beer flavors throughout the week. Together, they share how “cans in hands” at race finish lines and community events are key to brand building, how partnerships and earned media create the surround sound needed to convert trial into repeat purchase.If you care about brewery finance, brand strategy, or the surge in non-alcoholic beer, this podcast is packed with practical and clear frameworks you can apply at any scale. Ready to transform financial results in your beer business? Learn more about the Beer Business Finance Association, a network of owners and managers working together to build more profitable companies.

Oracle is increasing capital spending by $15 Billion, but they didn't raise their revenue guidance. In this video, we break down the multiple factors impacting Oracle's (ORCL) Fiscal Q2 2026 earnings. Debt is rising toward $110 Billion, free cash flow has swung to negative $10 Billion, and a one-time sale of Ampere is masking the true net income.We analyze why Oracle is selling its chip unit to SoftBank, why "Remaining Performance Obligations" (RPO) are not set in stone revenue, and why we are tax-loss harvesting our position until the cash flow improves.Join us on Discord with Semiconductor Insider, sign up on our website: www.chipstockinvestor.com/membershipSupercharge your analysis with AI! Get 15% of your membership with our special link here: https://fiscal.ai/csi/Sign Up For Our Newsletter: https://mailchi.mp/b1228c12f284/sign-up-landing-page-short-formIf you found this video useful, please make sure to like and subscribe!*********************************************************Affiliate links that are sprinkled in throughout this video. If something catches your eye and you decide to buy it, we might earn a little coffee money. Thanks for helping us (Kasey) fuel our caffeine addiction!Content in this video is for general information or entertainment only and is not specific or individual investment advice. Forecasts and information presented may not develop as predicted and there is no guarantee any strategies presented will be successful. All investing involves risk, and you could lose some or all of your principal.Chapters:00:00 - Oracle Earnings: Why the Narrative Soured 01:25 - The Guidance Miss: $15B More Spend, Zero Extra Revenue 02:18 - RPO Explained: Is the $523 Billion Backlog Real? 03:55 - CapEx vs. Revenue: Comparing Oracle to Other Hyperscalers 05:10 - Cash Flow Alert: The Swing to Negative $10 Billion 06:20 - The Ampere Sale: Why Larry Ellison Sold His Chip Unit 07:30 - Strategy Shift: Moving to "Chip Neutrality" 08:24 - The Debt Load: Total Debt Approaching $110 Billion 08:45 - Final Verdict: Why We Are Selling for Tax Loss Harvesting#Oracle #StockAnalysis #ORCL #CashFlow #Investing #AIInfrastructure #TechStocks #BalanceSheetNick and Kasey own shares of Oracle

Czasy wizyt w placówkach banku

Ed Yardeni returns to Excess Returns to break down the evolving market landscape, why he moved the Magnificent 7 to underweight, and how AI, productivity, interest rates, global markets, and sector leadership will shape the next stage of the Roaring 2020s. Ed explains why the economy has remained so resilient, what could finally trigger a true market broadening, and how investors should think about everything from tech competition to inflation, private credit risks, and Fed policy heading into 2026.Main topics covered• Why Ed reduced the Magnificent 7 and tech from overweight to market weight• How extreme sector concentration affects portfolio construction• The escalating competition inside AI and large-cap tech• The AI CapEx boom and how it changes earnings, margins, and valuation• Valuation considerations for tech leaders at this stage of the cycle• Whether the Mag 7 should be compared to past tech bubbles• How AI adoption may spread to the broader economy and boost productivity• Economic impact of AI on jobs, wages, and long-term inflation• Why the US economy avoided recession despite persistent warnings• Rolling recessions vs traditional recessions and how they shape markets• Private credit risks and whether they pose a systemic threat• Prospects for small caps, mid caps, financials, industrials, and healthcare• Why 2026 may finally bring true market broadening• The outlook for international investing and emerging markets• Ed's S&P 500 roadmap to 7,700 next year and 10,000 by 2029• Fed policy, rate cuts, inflation, bond vigilantes, and political pressure• Key risks investors should monitor heading into 2026Timestamps00:00 Mag 7 concentration and the case for rebalancing03:00 How Ed builds probability-based market scenarios04:30 Why the Roaring 2020s thesis still holds06:00 The no-show recession and economic resilience07:00 Why he moved the Mag 7 and tech to market weight09:30 How every company is becoming a technology company12:20 Knowing when a successful thesis has run its course13:30 The dominance of the US market and global diversification15:00 Why market weight, not overweight, for tech and the Mag 716:00 Tech competition, AI leapfrogging, and margin pressure18:30 The CapEx boom and valuation questions21:00 Comparing today's tech leaders to the 2000 era23:00 How AI could lift productivity across the entire economy25:00 Putting AI in historical context27:00 How new technologies solve constraints like energy and compute29:00 AI's long-term impact on productivity and growth30:00 Labor market disruption and job transition dynamics31:20 Will AI be deflationary over time?32:30 Technology, China, automation, and global deflation forces33:00 Ed's forecast for the S&P 500 through 202935:00 Why recession indicators failed this cycle37:00 How liquidity facilities prevent credit crunches39:00 Private credit risks and transparency challenges40:45 The potential for market broadening in 202642:20 Takeaways from the latest Fed meeting44:00 Should the Fed be cutting rates?45:00 Fed independence under political pressure47:00 Why bond vigilantes may return in 202648:00 International investing opportunities and ETFs49:30 Closing thoughts and key risks ahead

A.I. is shaping up to be a large part of Brian Kessens' energy outlook. His firm's research found that electricity loan growth is moving from 0.5% to 3.5% annually. Brian points to A.I. buildout from hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) as the main drivers to energy's climbing consumption. Going forward, he sees the U.S. needing to navigate energy consumption as it uses "more and more" every year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

The international banking front is turning hawkish, says Charles Schwab's Michelle Gibley. She explains what it means for stocks and the U.S. dollar. Michelle also taps Mexico's push for higher China tariffs as a way to stay in good graces with the U.S. Joe Mazzola notes he's "pleasantly surprised" with how the market is handling the A.I. CapEx narrative following Oracle's (ORCL) earnings. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Our Chief Asia Economist Chetan Ahya and Chief China Equity Strategist Laura Wang unpack Asia's broadening economic recovery and focus on China's path to market stability in 2026.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Laura Wang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Laura Wang, Morgan Stanley's Chief China Equity Strategist.Chetan Ahya: And I'm Chetan Ahya, Chief Asia Economist.Laura Wang: Today – our 2026 macro outlook for Asia with a particular focus on China's equity market.It's Wednesday, December 10th at 10am in Hong Kong.Chetan, as 2025 draws to a close; and if we try to remember what we were thinking about this time last year, I think, probably a lot of the market participants were expecting headwinds going into 2025 on the exports and trade front. But turns out that Asia's export growth is tracking at 8 percent this year so far. What's your explanation for this surprise?Chetan Ahya: Well, yes, Laura, you know, we were all concerned that there will potentially be tariffs, especially on China. And therefore, we were concerned that [the] regions' exports may be affected negatively. However, what has happened is that tech exports have driven the strength in the overall exports for the region. And that is all because of the story on AI and tech development that we have all been watching.But the good news is that non-tech exports will recover in 2026. In fact, that's the key call we are making – that from early next year, you will see that improvement in the U.S. domestic demand that helps Asia's exports. And at the same time, we are expecting that bulk of this tariff-related uncertainty would be behind us. And so those are the two factors we think will support this recovery in non-tech exports in 2026.Laura Wang: That's great. How significant is the shift in exports from tech to non-tech?Chetan Ahya: Well, we think that's very important for [the] regions' economic outlook. Because when you think about the tech exports recovery, it was helpful to keep [the] regions' overall exports growth strong, but it did not have the broader multiplier effect on the economy. So, for example, when you think about the tech exports, it tends to be more capital intensive, and we don't see much benefit on job growth.I think the best example I can give you is when you look at the Taiwan economic numbers. We've seen very strong GDP growth year-to-date. But at the same time, consumption numbers have been very weak. And so, non-tech exports recovery is very important for the broader economic recovery, and that is precisely what we expect in 2026. You will see that broadening out of growth with follow up in CapEx, job growth, and consumption recovery.Laura Wang: Your work suggests that Asia inflation will pick up modestly in 2026. What factors are behind this trend?Chetan Ahya: Well, as the non-tech exports recovery materializes, you should see improvement in capacity utilization across the board in the region. That should reduce the disinflationary pressures that we've been seeing year-to-date. And at the same time, we are expecting that the disinflationary pressures that the region was facing from China is also going to ease in 2026.Laura Wang: How will Asia central banks respond to keep inflation within their comfort zones? And what does this mean for monetary policy across the region in 2026?Chetan Ahya: Well actually, there's not much concern about keeping the inflation within the central bank's comfort zone because what we've seen year-to-date in Asia is that Inflation has been much lower than the central bank's target for a number of economies in the region. And they have been responding to this with more interest rate cuts.But going forward, as disinflationary pressure is reduced, we are expecting that the central banks in the region would end their rate cutting cycle. We should see just about one to two more rate cuts for some of the central banks. And then policy rates should remain largely stable through to the end of 2026.So, Laura, let me come to you now. So, 2025 was a very strong year for China markets. And you see 2026 as a ‘keep it steady' year rather than a breakout year. What does stability look like for investors and companies?Laura Wang: That's right, 2025 was a very good year for China equity market. We saw both MSCI China and Han Sang Index delivering more than 30 percent return in absolute terms. Going into 2026, we see it as a year for investors and for the market to preserve and protect what has been achieved in 2025 so far, but not with significantly much higher upside at this point. This is because the valuation re-reading we've seen so far in 2025 is already more than 30 percent, close to 40 percent.In [20]26, we think the valuation will largely stay at its current level, and further upside for the market will be more driven by solid earnings growth. For 2026, we see MSCI China's earnings growth year-on-year at around 6 percent.Chetan Ahya: So, with that backdrop, Laura, do you expect more inflows into the market next year?Laura Wang: Absolutely. Actually, we have already talked to so many investors on a global basis, and we are seeing much higher level of interest in investing in Chinese equities, particularly in some R&D and innovation heavy sectors.That being said, what we are seeing also is relatively light positioning by global investors in Chinese equities – actually across the board, still a quite sizable underweight, which means there will be much higher room for them to increase their allocation gradually in 2026 back to China.Chetan Ahya: And with the U.S.-China tensions easing a bit, and China doubling down on AI and smart manufacturing, where do you see the real-world opportunities from that?Laura Wang: There will be a lot of opportunities inside Chinese equity market, but we do want to stay with the names that will be delivering very solid earnings growth in the next few years. And we also want to highlight the next five years growth strategy laid out by Chinese policy makers.We want to make sure that we focus on the sectors that are very well aligned with the national growth strategy with a strong focus in R&D and innovation – and that would include AI as well as smart manufacturing, automation, robotics, and biotech. We also have collected very high level of interest from global investors in these sectors.At the same time, as we start to see less deflation pressure in 2026, but still with it potentially persisting into 2027, we want investors to still hold on to some exposure to high quality dividend plays. The steady cash returns from these stocks will help you navigate through some volatilities in the market in next year.Chetan Ahya: So, you expect global investors returning, mainland investors shifting money from savings into stocks, and strong cross-border trading within Hong Kong. What does that mean for market behavior and thematic opportunities?Laura Wang: One very positive development we have observed in 2025 is the strong capital market activities in Hong Kong. Hong Kong at single stock exchange basis actually is the most active IPO market in the world in 2025, and with policy support for Hong Kong to continue as a global financial hub, we expect this trend to continue. So, we are seeing more and more capital market activities happening in Hong Kong and mainland China in the next year. And in terms of thematic opportunities, I already mentioned that opportunities align with the national growth strategy with very heavy innovation and R&D focus. Along these opportunities, we're also heavy recommending investors to focus on thematic opportunities such as anti-evolution, as well as corporate governance reform.That summarizes our New Year outlook for Asia economy as well as China equity market. Chetan, thanks so much for taking the time to talk to me.Chetan Ahya: Great speaking with you, Laura.Laura Wang: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

U.S. mid-cap equities are often overlooked, but beneath the headlines of consumer weakness and market volatility, there's a more nuanced story. Portfolio manager Jeff Mo shares a bottom-up perspective on resilient—though bifurcated—consumer spending, margin surprises, and a capital expenditure boom that extends beyond AI. The discussion explores how company fundamentals, competitive advantages, and valuation opportunities are shaping portfolio decisions, with insights into sectors like defense and industrials. Jeff also addresses the impact of macro trends on stock selection, the evolving CapEx landscape, and why mid-cap valuations may offer compelling long-term potential. KEY HIGHLIGHTS: U.S. consumer spending remains resilient overall, though lower-income segments are showing more strain and deal-seeking behavior. Companies with strong competitive advantages continue to demonstrate pricing power and healthy margins, despite inflation and shifting cost pressures. The current CapEx boom is not limited to AI—reshoring, supply chain resilience, and manufacturing investments are driving activity across sectors. Market volatility in the mid-cap space has led to outsized stock reactions, creating opportunities for long-term, bottom-up investors. Defense and industrial companies, such as CACI International and ITT, are benefiting from innovation, management execution, and evolving end markets. Mid-cap valuations are reasonable relative to large-caps, with select areas appearing overlooked and offering attractive long-term return potential. Host: Rob Campbell, CFA Portfolio Manager Guest: Jeff Mo, CFA Portfolio Manager   Founded in 1974, Mawer Investment Management Ltd. (pronounced "more") is a privately owned independent investment firm managing assets for institutional and individual investors. Mawer employs over 250 people in Canada, U.S., and Singapore.  Visit Mawer at https://www.mawer.com. Follow us on social:  LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/mawer-investment-management/ Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mawerinvestmentmanagement/ 

Our Head of Research Product in Europe Paul Walsh and Chief European Equity Strategist Marina Zavolock break down the key drivers, risks, and sector shifts shaping European equities in 2026. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's Head of Research Product in Europe.Marina Zavolock: And I'm Marina Zavolock, Chief European Equity Strategist.Paul Walsh: And today – our views on what 2026 holds for the European stock market.It's Tuesday, December 9th at 10am in London.As we look ahead to 2026, there's a lot going on in Europe stock markets. From shifting economic wins to new policies coming out of Brussels and Washington, the investment landscape is evolving quite rapidly. Interest rates, profit forecasts, and global market connections are all in play.And Marina, the first question I wanted to ask you really relates to the year 2025. Why don't you synthesize your, kind of, review of the year that we've just had?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, I'll keep it brief so we can focus ahead. But the year 2025, I would say is a year of two halves. So, we began the year with a lot of, kind of, under performance at the end of 2024 after U.S. elections, for Europe and a decline in the euro. The start of 2025 saw really strong performance for Europe, which surprised a lot of investors. And we had kind of catalyst after catalyst, for that upside, which was Germany's ‘whatever it takes' fiscal moment happened early this year, in the first quarter.We had a lot of headlines and kind of anticipation on Russia-Ukraine and discussions, negotiations around peace, which led to various themes emerging within the European equities market as well, which drove upside. And then alongside that, heading into Liberation Day, in the months, kind of, preceding that as investors were worried about tariffs, there was a lot of interest in diversifying out of U.S. equities. And Europe was one of the key beneficiaries of that diversification theme.That was a first half kind of dynamic. And then in the second half, Europe has kept broadly performing, but not as strongly as the U.S. We made the call, in March that European optimism had peaked. And the second half was more, kind of, focused on the execution on Germany's fiscal. And post the big headlines, the pace of execution, which has been a little bit slower than investors were anticipating. And also, Europe just generally has had weak earnings growth. So, we started the year at 8 percent consensus earnings growth for 2025. At this point, we're at -1, for this year.Paul Walsh: So, as you've said there, Marina, it's been a year of two halves. And so that's 2025 in review. But we're here to really talk about the outlook for 2026, and there are kind of three buckets that we're going to dive into. And the first of those is really around this notion of slipstream, and the extent to which Europe can get caught up in the slipstream that the U.S., is going to create – given Mike Wilson's view on the outlook for U.S. equity markets. What's the thesis there?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, and thank you for the title suggestion, by the way, Paul of ‘Slipstream.' so basically our view is that, well, our U.S. equity strategist is very bullish, as I think most know. At this stage he has 15 percent upside to his S&P target to the end of next year; and very, very strong earnings growth in the U.S. And the thesis is that you're getting a broadening in the strength of the U.S. economic recovery.For Europe, what that means is that it's very, very hard for European equities to go down – if the U.S. market is up 15 percent. But our upside is more driven by multiple expansion than it is by earnings growth. Because what we continue to see in Europe and what we anticipate for next year is that consensus is too high for next year. Consensus is anticipating almost 13 percent earnings growth. We're anticipating just below 4 percent earnings growth. So, we do expect downgrades.But at the same time, if the U.S. recovery is broadening, the hopes will be that that will mean that broadening comes to Europe and Europe trades at such a big discount, about 26 percent relative to the U.S. at the moment – sector neutral – that investors will play that anticipation of broadening eventually to Europe through the multiple.Paul Walsh: So, the first point you are making is that the direction of travel in the U.S. really matters for European stock markets. The second bucket I wanted to talk about, and we're in a thematically driven market. So, what are the themes that are going to be really resonating for Europe as we move into 2026?Marina Zavolock: Yeah, so let me pick up on the earnings point that I just made. So, we have 3.6 percent earnings growth for next year. That's our forecast. And consensus – bottom-up consensus – is 12.7 percent. It's a very high bar. Europe typically comes in and sees high numbers at the beginning of the year and then downgrades through the course of the year. And thematically, why do we see these downgrades? And I think it's something that investors probably don't focus on enough. It's structurally rising China competition and also Europe's old economy exposure, especially in regards to the China exposure where demand isn't really picking up.Every year, for the last few years, we've seen this kind of China exposure and China competition piece drive between 60 and 90 percent of European earnings downgrades. And looking at especially the areas of consensus that are too high, which tend to be highly China exposed, that have had negative growth this year, in prior years. And we don't see kind of the trigger for that to mean revert. That is where we expect thematically the most disappointment. So, sectors like chemicals, like autos, those are some of the sectors towards the bottom of our model. Luxury as well. It's a bit more debated these days, but that's still an underweight for us in our model.Then German fiscal, this is a multi-year story. German fiscal, I mentioned that there's a lot of excitement on it in the first half of the year. The focus for next year will be the pace of execution, and we think there's two parts of this story. There's an infrastructure fund, a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund in Germany where we're seeing, according to our economists, a very likely reallocation to more kind of social-related spend, which is not as great for our companies in the German index or earnings. And execution there hasn't been very fast.And then there's the Defense side of the story where we're a lot more optimistic, where we're seeing execution start to pick up now, where the need is immense. And we're seeing also upgrades from corporates on the back of that kind of execution pickup and the need. And we're very bullish on Defense. We're overweight the issue for taking that defense optimism and projecting out for all of Europe is that defense makes up less than 2 percent of the European index. And we do think that broadens to other sectors, but that will take years to start to impact other sectors.And then, couple other things. We have pockets of AI exposure in the enabler category. So, we're seeing a lot of strength in those pockets. A lot of catch up in some of those pockets right now. Utilities is a great example, which I can talk about. So, we think that will continue.But one thing I'm really watching, and I think a lot of strategists, across regions are watching is AI adoption. And this is the real bull case for me in Europe. If AI adoption, ROI starts to become material enough that it's hard to ignore, which could start, in my opinion, from the second half of next year. Then Europe could be seen as much more of a play on AI adoption because the majority of our index is exposed to adoption. We have a lot of low hanging fruit, in terms of productivity challenges, demographics, you know, the level of returns. And if you track our early adopters, which is something we do, they are showing ROI. So, we think that will broaden up to more of the European index.Paul Walsh: Now, Marina, you mentioned, a number of sectors there, as it relates to the thematic focus. So, it brings us onto our third and final bucket in terms of what your model is suggesting in terms of your sector preferences…Marina Zavolock: Yeah. So, we have, data driven model, just to take a step back for a moment. And our model incorporates; it's quantum-mental. It incorporates themes. It incorporates our view on the cycle, which is in our view, we're late cycle now, which can be very bullish for returns. And it includes quant factors; things like price target, revisions breadth, earnings revisions breadth, management sentiment.We use a Large Language Model to measure for the first time since inception. We have reviewed the performance of our model over the last just under two years. And our top versus bottom stocks in our model have delivered 47 percent in returns, the top versus bottom performance. So now on the basis of the latest refresh of our model, banks are screening by far at the top.And if you look – whether it's at our sector model or you look at our top 50 preferred stocks in Europe, the list is full of Banks. And I didn't mention this in the thematic portion, but one of the themes in Europe outside of Germany is fiscal constraints. And actually, Banks are positively exposed to that because they're exposed to the steepness – positively to the steepness – of the yield curve.And I think investors – specialists are definitely optimistic on the sector, but I think you're getting more and more generalists noticing that Banks is the sector that consistently delivers the highest positive earnings upgrades of any sector in Europe. And is still not expensive at all. It's one of the cheapest sectors in Europe, trading at about nine times PE – also giving high single digit buyback and dividend yield. So that sector we think continues to have momentum.We also like Defense. We recently upgraded Utilities. We think utilities in Europe is at this interesting moment where in the last six months or so, it broke out of a five-year downtrend relative to the European index. It's also, if you look at European Utilities relative to U.S. Utilities – I mentioned those wide valuation discounts. Utilities have broken out of their downtrend in terms of valuation versus their U.S. peers. But still trade at very wide discounts. And this is a sector where it has the highest CapEx of any sector in Europe – highest CapEx growth on the energy transition. The market has been hesitant to kind of benefit the sector for that because of questions around returns, around renewables earlier on. And now that there's just this endless demand for power on the back of powering AI, investors are more willing to benefit the sector for those returns.So, the sector's been a great performer already year to date, but we think there's multiple years to go.Paul Walsh: Marina, a very comprehensive overview on the outlook for European equities for 2026. Thank you very much for taking the time to talk.Marina Zavolock: Thank you, Paul.Paul Walsh: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

OpenAI is (reportedly) in full panic mode.

In this episode of the Business of Aesthetics Podcast, host Don Adeesha is joined by Rebecca Landriault, CEO of Apex Aesthetic Consulting, to tackle the reality of operating in a hyper-competitive, high-density market. As the industry shifts away from a "growth at all costs" mindset, Rebecca argues that 2026 will be defined by operational discipline and capital efficiency. She challenges owners to pivot from an "acquisition obsession" to a mastery of retention, warning that in a saturated landscape, differentiation comes not from the newest device, but from comprehensive, lifetime treatment planning. A major focus is identifying the "silent capacity killers" that cause revenue plateaus. Rebecca reveals that the bottleneck is rarely marketing, but often lies in underutilized providers and an untrained front desk unable to credential services. She provides a strict financial framework for staffing, advising that no new revenue-generating hires should be made until existing providers are generating 5x their payroll and are booked 80% of the time. Furthermore, she dissects the "napkin math" of capital equipment sales, urging owners to calculate true ROI based on existing patient volume rather than hypothetical growth before signing any lease. From a strategic perspective, Rebecca redefines the concept of scaling, asserting that "growth is not expansion, it is a duplication of excellence". She cautions against the financial collapse often caused by premature scaling, advising that a practice must achieve a 25% net profit margin and hold six months of cash reserves before considering a second location. Finally, she offers a compelling analogy for membership models, positioning the provider as the "dentist" and the membership as the "toothbrush," to ensure patients protect their investment in high-ticket regenerative procedures through consistent maintenance.

Mike Wilson, our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist, and Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, discuss the outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026 and the most significant themes for retail investors. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Mike Wilson: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson. Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Daniel Skelly: And I'm Dan Skelly, Senior Investment Strategist for Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Mike Wilson: Today we're going to have a conversation about our views on the U.S. stock market in 2026, and what matters most to retail investors in particular. It's Monday, December 8th at 9am in New York. So, let's get after it. Dan, it's great to see you. We always talk about the markets together. I think this is a great opportunity for us to share those thoughts with listeners. Our view coming into this year is still pretty bullish for 2026. We've been bullish on [20]25 as you have, probably for, you know, similar – maybe some slightly different reasons. I think one of our differentiating views is that we do think inflation is still a major risk for individual investors. And institutional investors, quite frankly, which is why stocks have done so much better. A concept, I think you're well aware of. And I think, you know, the risk for retail is that there's going to be; it's going to be volatile. So, point-to-point, we're still bullish as you are. How are you thinking about managing that point-to-point path? And how are you structuring your portfolio as we go into 2026 with a bullish outlook – but understanding that it's not always going to be smooth. Daniel Skelly: So, like you said, we've also shared this view that next year's going to be positive, albeit there's going to be more volatility. And when I think about the two main risks that retail investors are facing today, one of them is definitely inflation. We're seeing that in services. We're seeing that in housing. We've had the labor market shrink over the recent couple of quarters, so who knows if wage inflation pops up again. But there are ways to definitely hedge against that in an equity portfolio. We think, for instance, owning parts of the AI infrastructure cohort is one of the ways of hedging, whether that be in utilities, pipelines, energy infrastructure in general. These are areas that we think are a necessary hedge against inflation risk. And number two are a positive diversifier. And second key point, Mike, just thinking about that diversification comment. Look, we all know that in many ways the Mag 7 – and the technology strength that we've seen this past year – has driven a fairly concentrated market. I think what people, particularly on the individual side, are recognizing less is just how much AI cuts across many other sectors in parts of the market. And again, we think that risk of over concentration is still out there. And we like the idea of thinking of embedding natural diversification into the equity portfolio. Mike Wilson: Yeah. I mean, it's interesting. Inflation, you know, is part of that story too because AI is somewhat disinflationary or deflationary. I think, you know, investing in things that can drive higher productivity even away from AI can mitigate some of that risk in the economic outlook. But if I think about, you know, the Mag 7 dominance, and just this concentrated market risk, which you spoke about. If inflation re-accelerates next year, which, you know, is one of our core views as the economy improves – doesn't that broaden out the opportunity set? And you know, like there's been this idea that, ‘Oh, you have to own these seven stocks and nothing else.' I mean, part of our view for next year is that we think the market's going to broaden out. How are you set up for that broadening out? And how are you thinking about picking stocks and new themes that can work – that maybe people aren't paying attention to right now? Daniel Skelly: Yeah, it's a great point, Mike. And so, on the first topic, we do think there's broadening, and that's a combination of factors. Number one is just the market becoming more convicted about the Fed cutting path, which we've talked about, and the firm's view reaffirms for next year. Number two is starting to see some of the benefits of deregulation, right, which should impact maybe some of the more cyclical sectors out there – Financials, Energy being two of them. Maybe seeing more M&A activity too as a byproduct of deregulation. And that should bode better for mid- and maybe small caps as well as they receive a M&A premia in the valuations. And I know you've talked about small caps recently in your commentary. But last point I'll make Mike, and it comes back to AI. It almost feels like AI is this huge inflationary ramp at first to get to that deflationary nirvana down the road – with productivity. I think one of the key factors we think about, in terms of a bottom-up perspective, which is what we focus on in across the portfolio, is definitely pricing power. Who owns the pricing power and the key data and the key AI adoption outlook in order to absorb all the different tools and technology diffusion we've seen in the last three years. And that's going to play out, Mike, as you well know, across a variety of sectors and themes. So, agreed, we should see broadening for all those varying reasons. Mike Wilson: So, I mean, there are a couple areas I think, where we overlap. Financials…Daniel Skelly: Yep. Mike Wilson: Industrials, Healthcare, some of the themes that I think we both; we share our bullish views. And what do you think those areas are, within those sectors? You think that you have a differentiated view maybe than the consensus being Financials, Industrials, Healthcare? That the market may be missing, which offers more upset? Daniel Skelly: Sure. I'll start with Financials, which has been an overweight call for us for some time, as I know it has for you as well. And I think that kind of cyclical re-acceleration in the economy is one part. I think the Fed cutting is another part. I think deregulation is clearly another driver. Fourth Capital Markets recovery, which we have seen now. We had a little bit of a technical lull with the government shutdown in terms of filings and issuance, but we see all of the pipeline indicators, indicating green lights for next year in terms of recovery. I think the one thing I would argue that I've observed in looking at all of our vast data sets is that despite all these different bullish factors, this still maybe has been a theme or a sector that investors have traded in and out of, right? I don't think I've even seen like a real strong, consistent overweight. So, I think number one, that's an opportunity. And last point is, listen, there's different sub-sector bifurcation going on, as you know, within the industry, whereas money centers and large banks are performing really well. The same is not the case of regionals and alts managers. And there are varying reasons for that. But we would even argue, Mike, there could be catchup trades within the sector next year. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I would agree on that. I mean, the regional over money centers and actually regionals over alt managers, because I mean – I think the Treasury Secretary has talked about this, you know. Trying to get the regulated banking system kind of back in the game may actually be an opportunity to take share back from some of those alt managers, which have actually done quite well. What about on Healthcare? We upgraded that back in the summer. I think you've been constructive on parts of Healthcare, right. Wwhat do you think people are missing there and why could that be a good sector for next year? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We were definitely, I'll say, earlier than you and wrong. You had really good timing in terms of your Healthcare upgrade last summer. And look, the sector was out of favor for two years. What we think we observed in the kind of July-August period is: First and foremost, I think we got past the point of maximum policy concern and risk. And ironically, we saw some kind of nominal or surface level deal signed with the government around most favored nation pricing. And it was really, not a lot to write home about. It wasn't as egregious as a policy inflection as some had feared. So, I think that was the first key catalyst. Second, we just saw a really good revisions breadth. And I know this is a comment you make a lot in your work. But we saw across big pharma, tools and life science, medical technology, and devices. We saw really good positive earnings revisions coming out of third and even starting the second quarter. Thirdly, I think if you're talking about an M&A in capital markets recovery, you can't not talk about Healthcare. I think that's a space that'll be ripe for deal making. And then just fourth, right? Look, as the market broadens out, and as people are stopping or maybe slowing the crowding and the key leadership, they're going to go again from AI enablers to AI adopters. And we think AI is going to be a vector that cuts across the Healthcare industry in a really positive way. Mike Wilson: Yeah, I mean, the efficiencies that are, you know, possible in the Healthcare sector seem immense. I mean, it, it appears to me that that's going to be an area where there's probably some new solutions, some new companies we don't even know about yet. So, to me that's a very exciting area that's been dormant for quite a while. What about Consumer, Dan? It's been this K economy. It's been very bifurcated, you know, high-end versus middle-income, lower-income. I mean, what are the themes within consumer that you're finding in putting to work in your portfolio? Daniel Skelly: Yeah. We've talked a lot, Mike, in the last year or so about playing Consumer platforms, particularly domestically oriented versus global consumer brands. And there's a couple of key drivers behind that. But first, when you look at what's going on in consumer land, and Simeon Gutman's been a really good, kind of, analyst looking at this theme over time. In many ways it's starting to resemble the Mag 7 in terms of winner take all phenomena. If you look at some of the major consumer big box platforms, they're taking 50- 60 percent of share of total retail sales. Just a couple of companies. So, number one, we're really focused on platforms where market share gains, free cash flow and revenue – recurring revenue – in particular, are leading to even stronger competitive moats, particularly in a capital-intensive industry. And what we've observed about retail is that as those leaders in big box areas take more share, they can reinvest that winning capital in their advertising growth in their online channel and widen their moats even more. Secondly though, in order to have a positive theme, I've always said you got to fund it from somewhere. And so, what we've observed again over the last year or so is – when I think about some of the even highest quality global brands they've suffered seeing less traction in China. And that's amid less of a willingness from Chinese consumers to own American and European brands. There's a lot to that, but I think culturally, obviously the trade war, the AI war for prominence leading to maybe some of that lack of cultural traction. Secondly, we've also, I think, started to see the growth of AI tools start to weigh on established brands. I think what makes a brand cool and the barriers to entry in terms of creating brands is going to go down in the future because of AI influencing and advertising tools. And so, simply put, we continue to like, Mike, the big box consumer platforms across, clothing and food, housing, across e-commerce. That continues to be one of our higher conviction themes. Mike Wilson: All right, Dan, I want to come back to, kind of, AI infrastructure. I mean, AI spending has been the big, big theme. But there's other types of infrastructure spend and CapEx. It's been dormant, quite frankly, and with the [One] Big Beautiful Bill [Act] perhaps incentivizing some of that. How does that play into your thought process around other industrial stocks that could benefit? Daniel Skelly: Absolutely, Mike. You cited the AI infrastructure spending. We think continues kind of unimpeded going into next year. Number two, we think the Fed cutting, just creating better financing conditions in terms of bigger projects. You mentioned as well, the fiscal incentives. And look, I think Chris Snyder has been spot on the last year or so talking about reshoring production wins coming back to the U.S. I don't think this is certainly as cognizant on the – or on the minds of individual investors. Maybe not even institutional investors. But the U.S. is winning manufacturing production share and has been for some time. And we've seen that no doubt ramp up post the announcement of the [One] Big Beautiful Bill {Act]. No doubt. But we think that has implications, Mike, for stocks and stock picking within what we would call, kind of, shorter cycle themes. And I think whether that be in Logistics and Transports or HVAC or some of the Non-Resi, Non-Datacenter related verticals. There are a whole bunch of stocks that have been kind of dormant for two to three years as we've been in this ISM recession that we think could certainly wake up next year as things broaden out. Mike Wilson: Yeah, we would agree with that. And I guess lastly, you know, there's always this Johnny come lately, you know, fear factor of, ‘Well … stocks are up a ton. My neighbor's bragging how much money they're making. So, I must have missed it all.' And I think embedded within that is this fear of valuation. The valuations are now very rich. What's your response to individual clients about – it's not too late, they haven't missed it. It's still a bull market. In fact, we would argue a new bull market began in April with a new economic cycle. What is your response to those folks who have that angst? Daniel Skelly: Two things. One is the market today looks totally different than it did in the past, and AI is no doubt one big part of that. The composition of the market in many ways is higher quality, less debt, more recurring revenue. Big call option on productivity coming from AI earnings, power, et cetera. So, we think the market should trade at richer levels than it did in the past, point number one. Point number two, we would say whereas most people say time is your friend – for individual investors, they would also say valuation is no short term or short run indicator, but it's the best long run indicator. And looking at today's, again, extended levels of valuation relative to history – they would say that's not going to play out well over the long run. I would actually take the other side of that. I think that the earnings and the economic potential unleashed not just from AI, but some of these fiscal and monetary policies could create tremendous margin earnings potential in the long run. And so, I think today we're looking at a level of multiples that appears artificially high. And based on what could be a big earnings inflection point in that multi-year timeframe could frankly just be superficially high. Mike Wilson: Well, Dan, it's always great to get your perspective. I always enjoyed chatting with you. Daniel Skelly: Likewise. Mike Wilson: Thanks for coming on the show and sharing it with our listeners. It's great to see you. Daniel Skelly: Thanks Mike. Mike Wilson: And thanks to our listeners. Thanks for tuning in and let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out.

In this episode of Bridge the Gap, we sit down with returning guest and industry leader Heather Tussing, President of The Aspenwood Company, to explore what it takes to build thriving, scalable, luxury senior living communities. Heather shares updates from her three-year leadership journey: from launching successful urban infill developments in Nashville and Charlotte to expanding through acquisitions and third-party management.This week, we cover:How Aspenwood transformed a strong company into a market-leading cultureBuilding authentic sales relationships long before a community opensSupporting high-performing teams and reinforcing culture at scaleStrategic refreshes and CapEx planning for luxury senior living assetsMaintaining brand standards across developments and acquisitionsMeet the Hosts:Josh CrispLucas McCurdyConnect with Our GuestHeather TussingProduced by Solinity Marketing.Sponsored by Aline, NIC MAP, Procare HR, Sage, Hamilton CapTel, Service Master, The Bridge Group Construction and Solinity. Become a sponsor of Bridge the Gap.Connect with BTG on social media:YouTubeInstagramFacebookTwitterLinkedInTikTokThis episode was recorded at the NIC Fall Conference 2025

Oracle (ORCL) is what Melissa Otto calls a "levered bet" in the A.I. space, says Melissa Otto. The company reports earnings on Wednesday. Melissa tells investors to watch for operating profit margins and any other indicators pointing to Oracle navigating massive CapEx spend from Mag 7 and other Big Tech companies as it piles on debt. She later notes the leadership shift and what CEO Larry Ellison needs to demonstrate on the earnings call. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with Matt Simpson, CEO of Brazil Potash (NYSE: GRO), to break down how the Autazes project could transform fertilizer security for Brazil and shift the balance of power in global agriculture.From navigating permits and construction milestones to securing long-term offtake agreements for more than 90 percent of expected production, Simpson explains how domestic potash supply could reduce Brazil's reliance on imports and strengthen global food stability at a time when commodity markets remain volatile.In this episode:– Why fertilizer supply is tightening as global agriculture demand accelerates– How domestic Brazilian potash could reduce geopolitical and logistics risk– What the Autazes project means for future pricing, imports, and food security– How infrastructure partnerships are cutting project Capex and speeding timelines– Why growth in fertilizer demand could reshape commodities in 2025–2027Lead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.Start your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

00:00 Intro 00:50 Berkshire buying $GOOGL: AI revenue 06:35 Mag7 heavy capex 12:30 Circular nature of AI 16:27 Thoughts on the $NFLX / $WBD deal 29:00 $FISV / $LRN massive sell-off 43:00 Insurance business heading into 2026 45:50 Housing industry 51:00 Capital cycles

In this episode of Excess Returns, Graeme Forster of Orbis joins us to discuss two major research papers: Six Courageous Questions for 2026 and Sunrise on Venus. We explore how long-running global trends may be reversing, what that means for U.S. dominance, the future of international and emerging markets, the risks and opportunities created by AI and massive CapEx spending, the dollar's shifting role, and how investors should think about valuation, humility, and navigating a world where the economic “water” is changing. This conversation is packed with global macro insight, long-term investing lessons, and practical frameworks for building more resilient portfolios. Topics Covered:• Why long-term market “water” becomes invisible to investors• Self-reinforcing global cycles and how China's WTO entry reshaped the world• Signs the 25-year U.S. outperformance cycle may be breaking• How tariffs, political shifts, and corporate reforms change the global landscape• Why international and emerging markets may now offer better expected returns• Why U.S. large caps are not the entire story of American exceptionalism• How to think about valuation, margins, and discounted cash flow models across markets• The AI boom, bubbles, capital cycles, and asymmetric outcomes• How AI CapEx constraints influence winners and losers• The shifting role of the U.S. dollar and why market shocks may behave differently• Maslow's hierarchy, needs vs. wants, and the return of state-driven capital investment• Deglobalization, reshoring, and the national-security lens for investing• How to evaluate China and Taiwan inside emerging markets• Why humility is an investor's greatest edgeTimestamps:00:00 Introduction01:02 Why Orbis wrote Six Courageous Questions for 202603:44 The David Foster Wallace “water” analogy and investing06:12 How a 25-year self-reinforcing cycle powered U.S. outperformance10:12 Signs the cycle may be breaking12:00 Corporate reform and opportunity in Asia13:55 Why active share, benchmarking, and incentives distort investor behavior17:31 Decomposing S&P 500 returns: margins, valuations, fundamentals20:20 Expected returns inside and outside the U.S.22:34 Why international stocks offer richer opportunity sets24:25 Currency implications and weakening dollar dynamics26:18 American exceptionalism beyond the top 10 mega caps28:49 Where Orbis is finding value today30:25 Biotech, healthcare, and post-COVID dislocation31:05 How Orbis thinks about valuation in an intangible-heavy world32:09 Is AI a bubble or the beginning of something bigger?34:30 Game theory of AI CapEx and right-tail outcomes36:00 CapEx cycles, history, and who benefits38:00 Indirect AI beneficiaries and the SK Square example40:35 Maslow's hierarchy and the shift from wants to needs42:32 Deglobalization, national security, and domestic reinvestment44:00 Capital returning to home markets and strategic industries46:00 Can anything reverse these structural trends?48:00 Balancing bottom-up investing with macro awareness49:45 The deeper risk in emerging markets: owning vs. avoiding51:00 Valuation still matters for long-term returns52:29 Corporate behavior, dividends, and re-rating cycles53:52 How Orbis views China vs. bottom-up opportunity55:34 Why great investors must be right 90–95% of the time in decision quality58:00 One lesson Graeme would teach the average investor

Bitcoin's down, so the Lessins turned down the heat and pulled out their winter gear. The More or Less squad jumps from SF's drone-powered crime-fighting memes (Daniel Lurie's “no drugs” moment) to how creator-content strategy now drives real deal flow. Jess says 2026 will split the AI tide (we unfortunately did have to touch on AI), with Meta's missing enterprise story dragging its CapEx dreams, while AWS is suddenly courting founders again. From Apple's design chief Alan Dye jumping to Meta to questioning whether OpenAI's “code red” was a decoy, the squad never misses when it comes to the latest thinking in Silicon Valley.Buy Slow's Modern Etiquette book: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5Chapters:Chapters:01:10 Kudos to SF Mayor, Daniel Lurie!07:14 Doom scrolling on a Garmin watch12:34 Holiday gift guides: AI robots, Duolingo piano, Matic vac mop, etc14:30 The creator-VC playbook 21:27 Instagram RTO 5 days per week leadership reality check22:08 Alan Dye leaves Apple for Meta 26:09 Jess' 2026 prediction: The Big Tech divergence is coming27:46 Meta's enterprise gap28:46 AWS outreach to Sam: Bedrock Nova and startup credits31:45 Sam Altman's code red memo -- is it a decoy?33:51 Gemini latency vs GPT why speed matters for Brit (Ad opp?)44:39 Is Aaron Levie for or against AI?46:40 Waymo's safety report and Dave's FSD usage51:21 Recapping the Slow holiday party + Offline's next58:28 Slow's Modern Etiquette Book plug (Link to purchase: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0G4HSKSY5)We're also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTubeConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

Fail forward, buy smarter. In this solo deep-dive, Taylor breaks down real-world STR underwriting—no hype, just numbers. If you've ever “made a spreadsheet sing” to justify a deal, this one's for you. Learn the exact framework he's used to evaluate hundreds of thousands of properties over the past four years and how to stay disciplined when emotion wants the win.What you'll learnThe anatomy of a winning pro forma: purchase price, debt structure, closing costs, and true Total OOP (down payment, reno, amenities, furniture, vendors).Building an optimization list that actually moves RevPAR (from paint to pickleball).Revenue the right way: comping like-for-like, using data tools (AirDNA/Rabbu), and modeling Low / Mid / High scenarios.Expense reality check: utilities, supplies, PM software, cleaning fees in vs. invoices out, HOA, taxes, insurance, CapEx & reserves.NOI vs. Free Cash Flow: what lives “above the fold,” why debt service ≠ mortgage, and how to compare deals apples-to-apples.Return stack 101: cash-on-cash, principal paydown, long-view appreciation (why you should zoom out 20–25 years), and a primer on the STR tax play.The baseball mindset: why looking at hundreds of deals to land a few great ones is normal—and healthy.__Episode Sponsored By:STR SearchSTR Search is the industry leading property finder service. They've helped investors acquire over 265+ profitable STRs across the US. If you'd like the data professionals to help you find your next STR, reach out to STRsearch.com

It's growth investing, just not as we knew it. Technology is disrupting the traditional signals for growth companies, such as revenue acceleration or addressable market expansion. In this episode, Sean Kenney sits down with MFS portfolio manager Brad Mak to explore what the AI revolution means for the future of growth companies and the potential for bubbles. They also cover current opportunities underappreciated by the market and look forward to what 2026 has in store. Listen in for the signals to help you identify where growth investing is heading.         Distributed by: U.S. – MFS Institutional Advisors, Inc. ("MFSI"), MFS Investment Management and MFS Fund Distributors, Inc., Member SIPC; Latin America – MFS International Ltd.; Canada – MFS Investment Management Canada Limited.; Note to UK and Switzerland readers: Issued in the UK and Switzerland by MFS International (U.K.) Limited ("MIL UK"), a private limited company registered in England and Wales with the company number 03062718, and authorised and regulated in the conduct of investment business by the UK Financial Conduct Authority. MIL UK, an indirect subsidiary of MFS®, has its registered office at One Carter Lane, London, EC4V 5ER.;  Note to Europe (ex UK and Switzerland) readers: Issued in Europe by MFS Investment Management (Lux) S.à r.l. (MFS Lux) – authorized under Luxembourg law as a management company for Funds domiciled in Luxembourg and which both provide products and investment services to institutional investors and is registered office is at S.a r.l. 4 Rue Albert Borschette, Luxembourg L-1246. 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Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy Michael Zezas and Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang address themes that are key for markets next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michael Zezas: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Michael Zezas: Today we'll be talking about key investor debates coming out of our year ahead outlook.It's Wednesday, December 3rd at 10:30am in New York. So, Serena, it was a couple weeks ago that you led the publication of our cross-asset outlook for 2026. And so, you've been engaging with clients over the past few weeks about our views – where they differ. And it seems there's some common themes, really common questions that come up that represent some important debates within the market. Is that fair?Serena Tang: Yeah, that's very fair. And, by the way, I think those important debates, are from investors globally. So, you have investors in Europe, Asia, Australia, North America, all kind of wanting to understand our views on AI, on equity valuations, on the dollar.Michael Zezas: So, let's start with talking about equity markets a bit. And one of the common questions – and I get it too, even though I don't cover equity markets – is really about how AI is affecting valuations. One of the concerns is that the stock market might be too high, might be overvalued because people have overinvested in anything related to AI. What does the evidence say? How are you addressing that question? Serena Tang: It is interesting you say that because I think when investors talk about equities being too high, of valuations – AI related valuations being very stretched, it's very much about parallels to that 1990s valuation bubble.But the way I approach it is like there are some very important differences from that time period, from valuations back then. First of all, I think companies in major equity indices are higher quality than the past. They operate more efficiently. They deliver strong profitability, and in general pretty solid free cash flow.I think we also need to consider how technology now represents a larger share of the index, which has helped push overall net margins to about 14 percent compared to 8 percent during that 1990s valuation bubble. And you know, when margins are higher, I think paying premium for stocks is more justified.In other words, I think multiples in the U.S. right now look more reasonable after adjusting for profit margins and changes in index composition. But we also have to consider, and this is something that we stress in our outlook, the policy backdrop is unusually favorable, right? Like you have economists expecting the Fed to continue easing rates into next year. We have the One Big Beautiful Bill Act that could lower corporate taxes, and deregulation is continuing to be a priority in the U.S. And I think this combination, you know, monetary easing, fiscal stimulus, deregulation. That combination rarely occurs outside of a recession. And I think this creates an environment that supports valuation, which is by the way why we recommend an overweight position in U.S. equities, even if absolute and relative valuation look elevated.Michael Zezas: Got it. So, if I'm hearing you right, what I think you're saying is that comparisons to some bubbles of the past don't necessarily stack up because profitability is better. There aren't excesses in the system. Monetary policy might be on the path that's more accommodative. And so, when compared against all of that, the valuations actually don't look that bad.Serena Tang: Exactly.Michael Zezas: Got it. And sticking with the equity markets, then another common question is – it's related to AI, but it's sort of around this idea that a small set of companies have really been driving most of the growth in the market recently. And it would be better or healthier if the equity market were to perform across a wider set of companies and names, particularly in mid- and small cap companies. Is that something that we see on the horizon?Serena Tang: Yes. We are expecting U.S. stock earnings to sort of broaden out here and it's one of the reasons why our U.S. equity strategy team has upgraded small caps and now prefer it over large caps. And I think like all of this – it comes from the fact that we are in a new bull market. I think we have a very early cycle earnings recovery here. I mean, as discussed before, the macro environment is supportive. And Fed rate cuts over the next 12 months, growth positive tax and regulatory policies, they don't just support valuations. They also act as a tailwind to earnings.And I think like on top of that, leaner cost structures, improving earnings revisions, AI driven efficiency gains. They all support a broad-based earnings upturn. and our U.S. equity strategy team do see above consensus 2026 earnings growth at 17 percent. The only other region where we have earnings growth above consensus in 2026 is Japan; for both Europe and the EM we are below, which drive out equal weight and slight underweight position in those two indices respectively.Michael Zezas: Got it. And so, since we can't seem to get away from talking about AI and how it's influencing markets, the other common question we get here is around debt issuance related to AI.So, our colleagues put together a report from earlier this year talking about the potential for nearly $3 trillion of AI related CapEx spending over the next few years. And we think about half of that is going to have to be debt financed. That seems to be a lot of debt, a lot of potential bonds that might be issued into the market – which, are credit investors supposed to be concerned about that?Serena Tang: We really can't get away from AI as a topic. And I think this will continue because AI-related CapEx is a long-term trend, with much of the CapEx still really ahead. And I think this goes to your question. Because this really means that we expect nearly another [$]3 trillion of data center related CapEx from here to 2028. You know, while half of the spend will come from operating cash flows of hyperscalers, it still leaves a financing gap of around [$]1.5 trillion, which needs to be sourced through various credit channels.Now, part of it will be via private credit, part of it would be via Asset Backed Securities. But some of it would also be via the U.S. investment grade corporate credit bond space. So, add in financing for faster M&A cycle, we forecast around [$]1 trillion in net investment grade bond issuance, you know, up 60 percent from this year.And I think given this technical backdrop, even though credit fundamentals should stay fine, we have doubled downgraded U.S. investment grade corporate credit to underweight within our cross asset allocation.Michael Zezas: Okay, so the fundamentals are fine, but it's just a lot of debt to consume over the next year. And so somewhat strangely, you might expect high yield corporate bonds actually do better.Serena Tang: Yes, because I think a high yield doesn't really see the same headwind from the technical side of things. And on the fundamentals front, our credit team actually has default rates coming down over the next 12 months, which again, I think supports high yield much better than investment grade.Michael Zezas: So, before we wrap up, moving away from the equity markets, let's talk about foreign exchange. The U.S. dollar spent much of last year weakening, and that's a call that our team was early to – eventually became a consensus call. It was premised on the idea that the U.S. was going to experience growth weakness, that there would also be these questions among investors about the role of the dollar in the world as the U.S. was raising trade barriers. It seemed to work out pretty well. Going into 2026 though, I think there's some more questions amongst our investors about whether or not that trend could continue. Where do we land?Serena Tang: I think in the first half of next year that downward pressure on the dollar should still persist. And you know, as you said, we've had a very differentiated view for most of this year, expecting the dollar to weaken in the first half versus G10 currencies. And several things drive this. There is a potential for higher dollar negative risk premium, driven by, I think, near term worries about the U.S. labor markets in the short term. And as investors, I think, debate the likely composition of the FOMC next year. Also, you know, compression in U.S. versus rest of the world. Rate differentials should reduce FX hedging costs, which also adds incentive for hedging activity and dollar selling. All this means that we see downward pressure on the dollar persisting in the first half of next year with EUR/USD at 123 and USD/JPY at 140 by the end of first half 2026.Michael Zezas: All right. Well, that's a pretty good survey about what clients care about and what our view is. So, Serena, thanks for taking the time to talk with me today.Serena Tang: And thank you for inviting me to the show today.Michael Zezas: And to our audience, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and share the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

It's YOUR time to #EdUp In this episode, part of our EdUp Extra series (because who doesn't love a little extra goodness in their life), & sponsored by the 2026 InsightsEDU Conference in Fort Lauderdale, Florida, February 17-19,YOUR guest is Gary Stocker, Founder, College ViabilityYOUR host is ⁠⁠Elvin FreytesHow does a guy helping a friend prepare for a college presidency discover in 2015 that there was zero merger partner data available & end up founding College Viability in 2018 to create financial comparison apps for 3,000 colleges?What happens when you discover that not even half of American 4 year colleges graduate at least 50% of their students in 4 years & create tools to help parents check financial health before majors or campus tours?How does tracking the CapEx to depreciation ratio & 8 year enrollment trends reveal which of the hundreds of colleges in financial distress will face closure versus merger decisions driven by economic survival?Listen in to #EdUpThank YOU so much for tuning in. Join us on the next episode for YOUR time to EdUp!Connect with YOUR EdUp Team - ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠Elvin Freytes⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ & ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Dr. Joe Sallustio⁠⁠⁠⁠● Join YOUR EdUp community at The EdUp ExperienceWe make education YOUR business!P.S. Want to get early, ad-free access & exclusive leadership content to help support the show? Then ⁠​subscribe today​⁠ to lock in YOUR $5.99/m lifetime supporters rate! This offer ends December 31, 2025!

David Waddell says investors recently experienced an "air pocket" in the A.I. trade, though he doesn't expect the bubble "bursting" any time soon. While he sees some parts of the trade as overinflated, David points to other corners of the market as fairly or undervalued. He makes the case for metals and construction as plays for investors to watch.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Welcome to our LIVE Q&A session! Lance Roberts is taking your questions directly from the YouTube live chat—covering markets, investing, retirement planning, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, portfolio strategy, risk management, and your personal finance questions. No scripts, no agenda—just real-time answers based on data, history, and risk-focused investing principles. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Not Every December is Positive 5:03 - Momentum is Back 11:01 - Economic Summit tease 12:01 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable 19:34 - Debt to GDP Ratio - threat to US Dollar; purchasing power of the US Dollar 22:24 - The purchasing Power of the US Dollar vs Inflation (Chart Crime) 26:53 - Dollar performance since release of Chat GPT 28:05 - Biggest Mistake/Triumph 30:08 - Is the BitCoin 4-year Cycle still Alive? 33:36 - What's the best investment for beginning investor? 35:58 - What Roles should REIT's play over the next 5-years? 37:14 - Is there a trade for money rotation among the Mag-7 39:17 - Dated Maturity Bond ETF's? 40:47 - Yield Curve steepening, inversion or un-inversion 42:16 - What happens to AI if Cap-Ex doesn't show up? 42:33 - In what bucket does Gold belong? 43:27 - Small Cap outlook for 2026 45:18 - When will long-term bonds recover? 46:13 - Bull/Bear case for private real estate & Private equity/credit 50:09 - When is marriage a good investment ? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist, Lance Roberts, CIO Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- Watch Today's Full Video on our YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GdOXH7vQrt8&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Markets Base Up as Bitcoin Builds a Bottom," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOg7kPGVEpM&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- REGISTER for our 2026 Economic Summit, "The Future of Digital Assets, Artificial Intelligence, and Investing:" https://www.eventbrite.com/e/2026-ria-economic-summit-tickets-1765951641899?aff=oddtdtcreator ------- Articles Mentioned in Today's Show: "Is Private Equity A Wolf In Sheep's Clothing?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-private-equity-a-wolf-in-sheeps-clothing/ -------- Watch our previous show, "Bear Markets Are a Good Thing," here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bdlhQgMthW4&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1 -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestm entadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- #StockMarketNews #BitcoinAnalysis #PreMarketUpdate #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingStrategy #InvestingQandA #StockMarketLive #FinancialPlanning #MarketOutlook #RetirementPlanning

Welcome to our LIVE Q&A session! Lance Roberts is taking your questions directly from the YouTube live chat—covering markets, investing, retirement planning, inflation, interest rates, the Federal Reserve, portfolio strategy, risk management, and your personal finance questions. No scripts, no agenda—just real-time answers based on data, history, and risk-focused investing principles. We'll break down what's moving the markets, how to think about pullbacks, what the Fed may do next, how valuations affect future returns, and how to build financial plans that survive full market cycles. Whether you're a new investor or a seasoned pro, this LIVE Q&A is your chance to get expert insight—right now. 0:00 - INTRO 0:19 - Not Every December is Positive; Retail Sales, Black Friday, & Target snafu 5:03 - Momentum is Back 11:01 - Economic Summit tease 12:01 - Live Q&A: Is the 60-40 Rule still viable - the goal is reducing volatility (three legs of investing) 19:34 - Debt to GDP Ratio - threat to US Dollar; purchasing power of the US Dollar 22:24 - The purchasing Power of the US Dollar vs Inflation (Chart Crime) 26:53 - Dollar performance since release of Chat GPT 28:05 - Biggest Mistake/Triumph - luck in real estate; lost money in Oil & Gas 30:08 - Is the BitCoin 4-year Cycle still Alive? 33:36 - What's the best investment for beginning investor? 35:58 - What Roles should REIT's play over the next 5-years? 37:14 - Is there a trade for money rotation among the Mag-7 as investors try to pick winners? 39:17 - Dated Maturity Bond ETF's? 40:47 - Yield Curve steepening, inversion or un-inversion 42:16 - What happens to AI if Cap-Ex doesn't show up? (It already is) 42:33 - In what bucket does Gold belong? (risk) 43:27 - Small Cap outlook for 2026 45:18 - When will long-term bonds recover? (They are) 46:13 - Bull/Bear case for private real estate & Private equity/credit 50:09 - When is marriage a good investment (and when is it not)?

Tony Zabiegala expects strong earnings growth in 2026, along with rate cuts and tax cuts to boost markets. However, he thinks that AI capex cash is going to run out sometime next year, and companies will have to take on debt to keep going – inviting greater investor scrutiny. On the consumer side, Tony argues that inflation from the past few years is catching up, with wage growth lagging behind, dragging spending power down. He thinks that investors should be looking at the “high end” of consumer discretionary next year, along with housing.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Dale Smothers returns to the Watch List and explains why he believes A.I. stocks hit a new bottom after stark selling action in November. Names he likes include Palantir (PLTR), Nvidia (NVDA), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Applied Digital (APLD) as he sees more upside potential to downside risk. Another factor Dale expects to bolster the A.I. trade: CapEx spend from hyperscalers like Alphabet (GOOGL). ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Allen and Yolanda discuss Statkraft’s workforce cuts and sale of its Swedish offshore wind projects. They also cover ORE Catapult’s partnership with Bladena to conduct torsional testing on an 88-meter blade, and the upcoming Wind Energy O&M Australia conference. Register for ORE Catapult’s Offshore Wind Supply Chain Spotlight event! Visit CICNDT to learn more! Sign up now for Uptime Tech News, our weekly email update on all things wind technology. This episode is sponsored by Weather Guard Lightning Tech. Learn more about Weather Guard’s StrikeTape Wind Turbine LPS retrofit. Follow the show on Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, Linkedin and visit Weather Guard on the web. And subscribe to Rosemary Barnes’ YouTube channel here. Have a question we can answer on the show? Email us! You are listening to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast brought to you by build turbines.com. Learn, train, and be a part of the Clean Energy Revolution. Visit build turbines.com today. Now here’s your hosts, Alan Hall, Joel Saxon, Phil Totaro, and Rosemary Barnes. Allen Hall: Welcome to the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. I’m your host, Allen Hall in the Queen city of Charlotte, North Carolina. I have Yolanda Padron in of all places, Austin, Texas. We’re together to talk to this week’s news and there’s a lot going on, but before we do, I want to highlight that Joel Saxon and I will be in Edinburgh, Scotland for the re Catapult UK offshore supply chain spotlight. That’s on December 11th, which is a Thursday. We’re gonna attend that event. We’re excited to meet with everybody. Over in the UK and in Scotland. Um, a lot of people that we know and have been on the podcast over a number of years [00:01:00] are gonna be at that event. If you’re interested in attending the OE Catapult UK Offshore Supply Chain spotlight, just Google it. It’s really inexpensive to attend, and I hope to see most of you there, Yolanda. There’s some big news over in Scandinavia today, uh, as, as we’re reading these stories, uh, the Norwegian State owned Utility Stack Craft, and it’s also one of Europe’s largest renewable energy companies. As, uh, as we know, I’ve been spending a lot of money in new markets and new technologies. Uh, they are in electric vehicle charging biofuels and some offshore wind development. Off the eastern coast of Sweden. So between Finland and Sweden, they’re also involved in district heating. So Stack Craft’s a really large company with a broad scope, uh, but they’re running into a little bit of financial difficulty. And this past July, they announced some [00:02:00] workforce reductions, and those are starting to kick in. They have 168 fewer employees, uh, by the end of this third quarter. 330 more expected to leave by the end of the year when all the dive are complete. This is the worrisome part. Roughly 1000 people will longer work for the company. Now, as part of the restructuring of Stack Craft, they are going to or have sold their offshore portfolio to Zephyr Renewable. Which is another Norwegian company. So Stack Craft is the Norwegian state owned renewable energy company. Zephyr is an independent company, far as I can tell my recollection that’s the case. So they agreed to acquire the bot, the uh, offshore Sigma and Lambda North projects, which makes Zephyr the largest offshore wind developer. Sweden, not Norway, [00:03:00] in Sweden. Obviously there’s some regulatory approvals that need to happen to make this go, but it does seem like Norway still is heavily involved in Sweden. Yolanda, with all the movement in offshore wind, we’re seeing big state owned companies. Pulling themselves out of offshore wind and looks like sort of free market, capitalistic companies are going head first into offshore wind. How does that change the landscape and what should we be expecting here over the next year or two? Yolanda Padron: We, we’ve seen a large reduction in the, the workforce in offshore wind in all of these state owned companies that you mentioned. Uh, something that I think will be really interesting to see will be that different approach. Of, you know, having these companies be a bit more like traditional corporations that you see, not necessarily having them, [00:04:00] um, be so tied to whatever politically is happening in the government at the moment, or whatever is happening between governments at a time, um, and seeing exactly what value. The different aspects of a company are bringing into what that company is making into, um, what, uh, the revenue of that company is, and not just kind of what is, what is considered to be the best way forward by governments. Do you agree? Is that something that you’re sensing too? Allen Hall: The COP 30 just wrapped down in the rainforest of Brazil, and there has not been a lot of agreement news coming out of that summit. Uh, I think next year it’s gonna move to Turkey, but Australia’s involved heavily. It was supposed to be in Adelaide at one point and then it’s moved to Turkey. [00:05:00] So there doesn’t seem to be a lot of consensus globally about what should be happening for renewables, and it feels like. The state owned companies are, uh, getting heavily leveraged and losing money trying to get their footing back underneath of them, so they’re gonna have to divest of something to get back to the core of what they were doing. That’s an interesting development because I think one of the question marks regarding sort of these state owned companies was how fast were they willing to develop the technology? How much risk were they willing to take? Being backed by governments gets a little political at times, right? So they, they want to have a, a steady stream of revenue coming from these operations. And when they don’t, the politicians step in and, uh, lean on the company is a good bit. Does the move to more, uh, standalone companies that are investing sort of venture capital money and bank money taking loans? I assume most of this [00:06:00] does that. Change how the offshore industry looks at itself. One and two, what the OEMs are thinking. Because if they were going to sell to an TED or an Ecuador, or a stack raft or vattenfall, any of them, uh, you know, when you’re going to that sales discussion that they’re backed by billions and billions and billions of, of kroner or whatever the, the currency is. So you may not have to. Really be aggressive on pricing. Now you’re dealing with companies that are heavily leveraged and don’t have that banking of a government. Do you think there’s gonna be a tightening of what that marketplace looks like or more pressure to go look towards China for offshore wind turbines? Yolanda Padron: It’ll definitely get a bit more audited internally, exactly what decisions are made and and how objective teams are. I think that there’s. [00:07:00] In all of the companies that you mentioned, there’s some semblance of things that maybe happened because of what was going on politically or, or because of ties that certain governments had to each other, or certain governments had to specific corporations, um, which was a, a great way for those companies to operate at the time and what was, what made sense. But now that it’s. A third party who genuinely, you know, needs that cash flow in from that business or that part of the business, it’ll, I think you’ll definitely start seeing some, some greater efficiencies going on within Allen Hall: these teams. Well, I would hope so. If you think about the way the United States moved pre, uh, the current administration. There were a number of US based companies sort of going 50 50 on a lot of the [00:08:00] offshore development, and then they slowly started backing away. The only one that’s still really in it is Dominion, was the coastal offshore, um, coastal Virginia offshore wind project that is still progressing at a good pace. But, uh, everybody else that was involved in, and they’re not the same kind of structure as an Ecuador is. They’re not, uh, there’s kinda state-owned entities in the United States and states can’t have deficits, unlike nations can. So the US deficit obviously is massively large, but state deficits don’t really exist. So those electric companies can’t get highly leveraged where they’re gonna bleed cash. It’s just not a thing. It’s gonna happen. So I think I saw the precursors to some of this offshore turbulence happening in the United States as the. They didn’t see a lot of profit coming from the state electric companies. That seems to be flowing into Europe now pretty heavily. That started about six months [00:09:00] ago. How are they gonna structure some of these offshore projects now? Are they just gonna put them on hold and wait for interest rates to come down so that the margins go up? Is is that really the play? Is that you have the plot of land? You already have all the, the filings and the paperwork and authorization to do a project at some point, is it just now a matter of waiting where the time is? Right. Financially, Yolanda Padron: that question will be answered by each specific company and see what, what makes sense to them. I don’t think that it makes sense to stall projects that if you already have the permits in, if you already have everything in, and just to, to see when the time is right, because. Everything’s been ramping up to that moment, right? Like, uh, the water’s always already flowing. Um, but it, it’ll, it’ll definitely be interesting to see what approach, like where, where each company finds themselves. I, they’ll have to rely on [00:10:00] what information has come out in the past and maybe try to analyze it, try to see exactly where things went wrong, or try to pinpoint what. Decisions to not make. Again, knowing what they know now, but with everything already flowing and everything already in queue, it’ll have to be something that’s done sooner rather than later to not lose any of that momentum of the projects because they’re not reinventing the wheel. Allen Hall: Siemens is developing what a 20 odd megawatt, offshore turbine? 22 megawatt, if I remember right. 21, 22. Something in there. Obviously Ming Yang and some others are talking about upwards of 15 megawatts in the turbine. If you have a lot of capital at risk and not a lot of government backing in it, are you going to step down and stay in the 15 megawatt range offshore because there’s some little bit of history, or are you gonna just roll the dice? Some new technology knowing that you can get the, the dollar per megawatt [00:11:00] down. If you bought a Chinese wind turbine, put it in the water. Do you roll that? Do you roll that dice and take the risk? Or is the safer bet and maybe the financing bet gonna play out easier by using a Vestus 15 megawatt turbine or a Siemens older offshore turbine that has a track record with it. Yolanda Padron: I think initially it’ll have to be. Using what’s already been established and kind of the devil, you know? Right. I, I think it’ll, there’s a lot of companies that are coming together and, and using what’s done in the field and what operational information they have to be able to, to. Take that information and to create new studies that could be done on these new blades, on these new technologies, uh, to be able to take that next step into innovation without compromising any [00:12:00] of the, of the money, any of the aspects really like lowering your risk Allen Hall: portfolio. Yeah. ’cause the risk goes all the way down to the OEMs, right. If the developer fails and the OEM doesn’t get paid. It, it’s a. Catastrophic down the chain event that Siemens investors are looking to avoid, obviously. So they’re gonna be also looking at the financing of these companies to decide whether they’re going to sell them turbines and. The question comes up is how much are they gonna ask for a deposit before they will deliver the first turbine? It may be most of the money up front. Uh, it generally is, unless you’re a big developer. So this is gonna be an interesting, uh, turning point for the offshore wind industry. And I know in 2026 we’re gonna see a lot more news about it, and probably some names we haven’t heard of in a while. Coming back into offshore wind. Don’t miss the UK Offshore Wind Supply Chain Spotlight 2025 in Edinburg on December 11th. Over 550 delegates and 100 exhibitors will be at this game changing event. [00:13:00] Connect with decision makers, explore market ready innovations and secure the partnerships to accelerate your growth. Register now and take your place at the center of the UK’s offshore Wind future. Just visit supply chain spotlight.co.uk and register today. Well, as we all know, the offshore wind industry has sort of a problem, which is now starting to come more prevalent, which is the first generation of offshore wind turbines that prove that the technology could work at scale or getting old. We’re also developing a lot of new wind turbines, so the blade links are getting much longer. We don’t have a lot of design history on them. Decommissioning is expensive. Of course, anything offshore is expensive. What if we can make those blades last longer offshore, how would we do that? Well, that question has come up a number of times at many of the, the conferences that I have attended, and it looks like ORI Catapult, which is based in the UK and has their test center [00:14:00] in Blythe, England, is working with Blade Dina, which is a Danish engineering company that’s now owned by Res. So if you haven’t. Seeing anything from Blade Dina, you’re not paying attention. You should go to the website and check them out. Uh, they have all kinds of great little technology and I call it little technology, but innovative technology to make blades last longer. So some really cool things from the group of Blade Dina, but they’re gonna be working with re catapult to test an 88 meter blade for torsion. And I’m an electrical engineer. I’m gonna admit it up front, Yolanda. I don’t know a lot about torsional testing. I’ve seen it done a little bit on aircraft wings, but I haven’t seen it done on wind turbine blades. And my understanding, talking to a lot of blade experts like yourself is when you start to twist a blade, it’s not that easy to simulate the loads of wind loads that would happen normally on a turbine in the laboratory. Yolanda Padron: Absolutely. I think this is going to be so [00:15:00] exciting as someone in operations, traditionally in operations, uh, because I think a lot of the, the technology that we’ve seen so far and the development of a lot of these wind projects has been from teams that are very theory based. And so they’ve, they’ve seen what simulations can be done on a computer, and those are great and those are perfect, but. As everyone knows, the world is a crazy place. And so there’s so many factors that you might not even think to consider before going into operations and operating this, uh, wind farm for 10, 20 years. And so something that Blade Dina is doing is bringing a lot of that operational information and seeing, like applying that to the blade testing to be able to, to get us to. The next step of being able to innovate while knowing a little bit [00:16:00]more of what exactly you’re putting on there and not taking as big a risk. Allen Hall: Does the lack of torsional testing increase the risk? Because if you listen to, uh, a, a lot of blade structure people, one of the things that’s discussed, and Blaina has been working on this for a couple of years, I went back. Two or three years to see what some of the discussions were. They’ve been working with DTU for quite a while, but Dina has, uh, but they think that some of the aging issues are really related to torsion, not to flap wise or edgewise movement of the blade, if that’s the case, particularly on longer blades, newer blades, where they’re lighter. If that’s the case, is there momentum in the industry to create a standard on how to. Do this testing because I, I know it’s gonna be difficult. I, I can imagine all the people from Blaina that are working on it, and if you’ve met the Blaina folk, there [00:17:00] are pretty bright people and they’ve been working with DTU for a number of years. Everybody in this is super smart. But when you try to get something into an IEC standard, you try to simplify where it can be repeatable. Is this. Uh, is it even possible to get a repeatable torsion test or is it gonna be very specific to the blade type and, or it is just gonna be thousands of hours of engineering even to get to a torsion test? Yolanda Padron: I think right now it’ll be the thousands of hours of engineering that we’re seeing, which isn’t great, but hopefully soon there, there could be some sort of. A way to, to get all of these teams together and to create a bit of a more robust standard. Of course, these standards aren’t always perfect. We’ve seen that in, in other aspects such as lightning, but it at least gets you a starting point to, to be able to, to have everyone being compliance with, with a similar [00:18:00] testing parameters. Allen Hall: When I was at DTU, oh boy, it’s probably been a year and a half, maybe two years ago. Yikes. A lot has happened. We were able to look at, uh, blades that had come off the first offshore wind project off the coast of Denmark. These blades were built like a tank. They could live another 20, 30 years. I think they had been on in the water for 20 plus years. If I remember correctly. I was just dumbfounded by it, like, wow. That’s a long time for a piece of fiberglass to, to be out in such a harsh environment. And when they started to structurally test it to see how much life it had left in it, it was, this thing could last a lot longer. We could keep these blades turned a lot longer. Is that a good design philosophy though? Are should we be doing torsional testing to extend the lifetime to. 40, 50 years because I’m concerned now that the, well, the reality is you like to have everything fall apart at once. The gearbox to fail, the generator to fail, the [00:19:00] blades, to fail, the tower, to fail all of it at the same time. That’s your like ideal engineering design. And Rosemary always says the same thing, like you want everything to fall apart and the same day. 25 years out because at 25 years out, there’s probably a new turbine design that’s gonna be so much massively better. It makes sense to do it. 20 years is a long time. Does it make sense to be doing torsional testing to extend the lifetime of these blades past like the 20 year lifespan? Or is, or, or is the economics of it such like, if we can make these turbines in 50 years, we’re gonna do it regardless of what the bearings will hold. Yolanda Padron: From, from speaking to different people in the field, there’s a lot of appetite to try to extend the, the blade lifetime as long as the permits are. So if it’s a 50 year permit to try to get it to those 50 years as much as possible, so you don’t have to do a lot of that paperwork and a lot of the, if you have to do [00:20:00] anything related to the mono piles, it’s a bit of a nightmare. Uh, and just trying to, to see that, and of course. I agree that in a perfect world, everything would fail at once, but it doesn’t. Right? And so there you are seeing in the lifetime maybe you have to do a gearbox replacement here and there. And so, and having the, the blades not be the main issue or not having blades in the water and pieces as long as possible or in those 50 years, then you can also tackle some of the other long-term solutions to see if you, if you can have that wind farm. For those 50 years or if you are going to have to sort of either replace some of the turbines or, or eat up some of that time left over in the permit that you have. Allen Hall: Yeah, because I think the industry is moving that way to test gear boxes and to test bearings. RD test systems has made a number of advancements and test beds to do just that, to, [00:21:00] to test these 15, 20, 25 megawatt turbines for lifetime, which we haven’t done. As much of this probably the industry should have. It does seem like we’re trying to get all the components through some sort of life testing, whatever that is, but we haven’t really understood what life testing means, particularly with blades. Right? So the, the issue of torsion, which is popped its head up probably every six months. There’s a question about should we be testing for torsion that. Is in line with bearing testing that’s in line with gearbox testing. If we are able to do that, where we spend a little more money on the development side and the durability side, that would dramatically lower the cost of operations, right? Yolanda Padron: Absolutely. It, it’d lower the cost of operations. It would lower the ask. Now that. A lot of these companies are transition, are [00:22:00]transitioning to be a bit more privatized. It’ll lower the risk long term for, for getting some of those financial loans out, for these projects to actually take place. And, you know, you’ll, you’re having a, a site last 50 years, you’re going to go through different cycles. Different political cycles. So you won’t have that, um, you won’t have that to, to factor in too much, into, into your risk of whether, whether or not you, you have a permit today and don’t have it tomorrow. Allen Hall: It does bring the industry to a interesting, uh, crossroads if we can put a little more money into the blades to make them last 25 years. Pretty regularly like the, the, you’re almost guaranteeing it because of the technology that bleeding that’s gonna develop with Ory Catapult and you get the gearbox and you can get the generator and bearings all to do the same thing. [00:23:00] Are you willing to pay a little bit more for that turbine? Because I think in today’s world or last year’s world, the answer was no. I wanted the cheapest blade. I wanted the cheapest, uh, to sell. I could get, I wanna put ’em on a tower, I’m gonna call it done. And then at least in the United States, like repower, it’s boom, 10 years it’s gonna repower. So I don’t care about year 20. I don’t even care about year 11, honestly, that those days have are gone for a little while, at least. Do you think that there’s appetite for say, a 10% price increase? Maybe a 15% say 20. Let’s just go crazy and say it’s a 20% price increase to then know, hey, we have some lifecycle testing. We’re really confident in the durability these turbines is. There’s a trade off there somewhere there, right? Yolanda Padron: Yeah. I mean, spending 10, 20% of CapEx to it, it. Will, if you can dramatically increase [00:24:00] the, the lifetime of the blades and not just from the initial 10 years, making them 20 years like we’re talking about, but some of these blades are failing before they hit that 10 year mark because of that lack of testing, right. That we’ve seen, we’ve talked to so many people about, and it’s an unfortunate reality. But it is a reality, right? And so it is something that if you’re, you’re either losing money just from having to do a lot of repairs or replacements, or you’re losing money from all of the downtime and not having that generation until you can get those blade repairs or replacements. So in spending a little bit more upfront, I, I feel like there should be. Great appetite from a lot of these companies to, to spend that money and not have to worry about that in the long term. Allen Hall: Yeah, I think the 20 26, 27, Joel would always say it’s 2027, but let’s just say 2027. If you have an [00:25:00] opportunity to buy a really hard and vested turbine or a new ing y, twin headed dragon and turbine, whatever, they’re gonna call this thing. I think they’re gonna stick to the European turbine. I really do. I think the lifetime matters here. And having security in the testing to show that it’s gonna live that long will make all the little difference to the insurance market, to the finance market. And they’re gonna force, uh, the developers’ hands that’s coming, Yolanda Padron: you know, developing of a project. Of course, we see so many projects and operations and everything. Um, but developing a project does take years to happen. So if you’re developing a project and you think, you know, this is great because I can have this project be developed and it will take me and it’ll be alive for a really long time and it’ll be great and I’ll, I’ll be able to, to see that it’s a different, it’s a different business case too, of how much money you’re going to bring into the [00:26:00]company by generating a lot more and a lot more time and having to spend less upfront in all of the permitting. Because if instead of having to develop two projects, I can just develop one and it’ll last as long as two projects, then. Do you really have your business case made for you? Especially if it’s just a 10 to 20% increase instead of a doubling of all of the costs and effort. Speaker 4: Australia’s wind farms are growing fast, but are your operations keeping up? Join us February 17th and 18th at Melbourne’s Poolman on the park for Wind Energy o and M Australia 2026, where you’ll connect with the experts solving real problems in maintenance asset management. And OEM relations. Walk away with practical strategies to cut costs and boost uptime that you can use the moment you’re back on site. Register now at W om a 2020 six.com. Wind Energy, o and m Australia is created [00:27:00] by Wind professionals for wind professionals. Because this industry needs solutions, not speeches, Allen Hall: I know Yolanda and I are preparing to go to Woma Wind Energy, o and m Australia, 2026 in February. Everybody’s getting their tickets and their plans made. If you haven’t done that, you need to go onto the website, woma WMA 2020 six.com and register to attend the event. There’s a, there’s only 250 tickets, Yolanda, that’s not a lot. We sold out last year. I think it’s gonna be hard to get a ticket here pretty soon. You want to be there because we’re gonna be talking about everything operations and trying to make turbines in Australia last longer with less cost. And Australians are very, um, adept at making things work. I’ve seen some of their magic up close. It’s quite impressive. Uh, so I’m gonna learn a lot this year. What are you looking forward to at Wilma 26? Yolanda. [00:28:00] Yolanda Padron: I think it’s going to be so exciting to have such a, a relatively small group compared to the different conferences, but even just the fact that it’s everybody talking to each other who’s seen so many different modes of failure and so many different environments, and just everybody coming together to talk solutions or to even just establish relationships for when that problem inevitably arises without having it. Having, I mean, something that I always have so much anxiety about whenever I go to conferences is just like getting bombarded by salespeople all the time, and so this is just going to be great Asset managers, engineers, having everybody in there and having everybody talking the same language and learning from each other, which will be very valuable. At least for me. Allen Hall: It’s always sharing. That’s what I enjoy. And it’s not even necessarily during some of the presentations and the round tables and the, [00:29:00] the panels as much as when you’re having coffee out in the break area or you’re going to dinner at night, or uh, meeting before everything starts in the morning. You just get to learn so much about the wind industry and where people are struggling, where they’re succeeding, how they dealt with some of these problems. That’s the way the industry gets stronger. We can’t all remain in our little foxholes, not looking upside, afraid to poke our head up and look around a little bit. We, we have to be talking to one another and understanding how others have attacked the same problem. And I always feel like once we do that, life gets a lot easier. I don’t know why we’re make it so hard and wind other industries like to talk to one another. We seem somehow close ourselves off. And uh, the one thing I’ve learned in Melbourne last year was. Australians are willing to describe how they have fixed these problems. And I’m just like dumbfounded. Like, wow, that was brilliant. You didn’t get to to Europe and talk about what’s going on [00:30:00] there. So the exchange of information is wonderful, and I know Yolanda, you’re gonna have a great time and so are everybody listening to this podcast. Go to Woma, WOMA 2020 six.com and register. It’s not that much money, but it is a great time and a wonderful learning experience. That wraps up another episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. And if today’s discussion sparked any questions or ideas, we’d love to hear from you. Reach out to us on LinkedIn and don’t for, and don’t forget to subscribe so you never miss an episode. And if you found value in today’s conversation, please leave us a review. It really helps other wind energy professionals discover the show and we’ll catch you on the next episode of the Uptime Wind Energy Podcast. This time next [00:31:00] week.

In this episode, we demystify tax season for female real estate investors, proving it doesn't have to be stressful or last-minute. Drawing on our personal experiences, we share practical systems for year-round organization, from mastering 1099 and W-9 requirements to distinguishing between capital expenditures (CapEx) and repairs for smarter tax benefits. We also highlight the value of digital bookkeeping tools, such as QuickBooks, and discuss the advantages of hiring a real estate-specific bookkeeper. Additionally, we detail the importance of preparing quarterly estimated tax payments to avoid penalties. The conversation covers setting up digital filing systems for receipts and closing statements, maintaining a Properties Quick Guide, and diligent record-keeping for those pursuing Real Estate Professional Status (REPS). You will learn actionable steps to streamline processes, maximize deductions, and work effectively with CPAs. Packed with community resources and honest advice, this episode provides empowering strategies to help you face tax time with confidence and focus on building your real estate success. Resources:Simplify how you manage your rentals with TurboTenantGet in touch with Envy Investment GroupGet the deets on working with the WIIRE BookkeeperMake sure your name is on the list to secure your spot in The WIIRE Community Leave us a review on Apple PodcastsLeave us a review on SpotifyJoin our private Facebook CommunityConnect with us on Instagram

Austin Lyons believes Nvidia (NVDA) is poised to continue growth with hyperscalers like Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) showing no signs of curbing CapEx spending. While headlines of Alphabet (GOOGL) offerings TPUs to Meta shook Nvidia shareholders, Austin doesn't expect that competition to cut into the company's bottom line. Logan Gilland sees forward valuation as the biggest challenge to Nvidia's growth following the stock's slide from a $5 trillion market cap. That said, he sees China sales serving as a catalyst to another rally. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Pre-Thanksgiving chatter from the Lessins' Surf Shack: Jess, Brit, Dave, and Sam pinball from holiday-card automation to trillion-dollar AI geopolitics. Brit trades Minted for Canva+GPT, Jess admits to maintaining a 600-row address spreadsheet, Sam unveils Slow's Etiquette Book, and Dave still can't believe we can't pay in USDC. Don't worry this year's Thanksgiving edition will live up to its hype, the crew gets into the real stuff too: Google's TPU push vs. Nvidia's moat, Meta reportedly buying billions in TPUs, whether Google can shave 10% off Nvidia's revenue, and more.Chapters:06:45 The San Francisco consensus and Silicon Valley's real innovation marketing11:10 Elon Zuck and megaphone-powered distribution14:30 Why interface distribution will decide AI winner17:20 Memory isn't real lock-in switching between ChatGPT and Gemini21:40 OpenAI's identity crisis: Apple-style computer vs Meta-style attention26:30 Google complex vs OpenAI complex how the narrative flipped29:10 Google TPUs vs Nvidia Meta's rumored buying spree33:20 AI infrastructure economics depreciation CapEx margins36:00 Macro vs micro elections risk cycles 40:10 DOE's Genesis Mission and where the analogy breaks44:00 OpenAI's Jony Ive device timeline48:30 Why distribution still beats novelty53:15 Final takeaways: marketing distribution and business-model warsWe're also on ↓X: https://twitter.com/moreorlesspodInstagram: https://instagram.com/moreorlessYouTube: https://youtu.be/7BbWHm3KODwConnect with us here:1) Sam Lessin: https://x.com/lessin2) Dave Morin: https://x.com/davemorin3) Jessica Lessin: https://x.com/Jessicalessin4) Brit Morin: https://x.com/brit

The cannabis industry is evolving, and so are the tools and strategies to optimize cultivation practices.DOPE CFO Certified Advisor Raymond Guns, CPA, sits down with Jesse Porter, Director of Marketing and Sales at Harvest Integrated, to explore how data-driven cultivation and innovative climate solutions are improving cannabis operations.What You'll Learn:- The four pillars of cultivation success: quality, quantity, consistency, and efficiency – and how to measure them.- Why tracking KPIs like yield per square foot and extract yield is critical for forecasting revenue and optimizing costs.- How Harvest Integrated's “Climate as a Service” provides a no CapEx solution for HVAC systems, reduces risk, and ensures consistent environmental control.Whether your clients are craft cultivators chasing quality or large-scale operators focused on efficiency, you'll walk away with actionable insights to optimize their operations and improve outcomes.

Episode 81 of The Space Industry podcast by satsearch is a conversation with Hans Martin Steiner, VP Institutional Space Business at Terma, about scalability and expandability of cutting-edge ground stations with SDR technology.Terma's space business provides mission-critical electronics, software, and services for space applications.In the episode, Hans and satsearch COO Prasad Nagendra discuss:1.

This week, we discuss the Fed's whiplash on December rate-cut expectations, why markets are being driven more by positioning and volatility than fundamentals, and how AI-led CapEx is masking weakness across the real economy. We also dig into the Beige Book's warnings on employment and AI-driven layoffs, the political pressure building into 2025, and Mike Green's viral case that the true cost of living is far higher than official statistics admit. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance __ Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DZ5AtLuZZxGT5hWw3jq2V-r_9jBgruEE/view?usp=sharing — Grayscale offers more than 30 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. https://www.grayscale.com/?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-forwardguidance — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:49) Rate Cut Odd Whipsaw (09:48) Grayscale Ad (10:27) Market Structure & Positioning (15:14) Debating the AI Race (23:59) Gameplan for Next Year (31:31) Grayscale Ad (32:18) 2026 Cuts & New Fed-Treasury Vision (38:34) Gold Miners & Trading Commodities (42:18) Oil & Energy Policy (46:22) Mike Green & the K-Shaped Economy (55:17) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

Dustin Reid digs into today's flurry of economic data, highlighting strength in Durable Goods and GDP and weakness in the labor market. He thinks the market is waiting “for a shoe to drop” either way. He thinks the Fed will be “on hold” after one more cut, whether it comes in December or not. Dustin shares his view of the bond market and potential fixed-income strategies ahead of a “challenging” 2026. He believes we are in the “third or fourth inning” of AI capex spend, and we could hit the end by late next year.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In April 2025, we bought a small 6-unit property for $400K, put $68K into CapEx, tightened operations, filled every unit, and had it under contract at $650K within five months. We were days away from closing. Buyers locked in. No renegotiation. Clean inspection. A true home run. And then… two days before closing… a 17-year-old driver crashed into one of our tenant's cars, launching it straight into our standalone studio apartment. The entire facade caved in. The tenant had to vacate. And the deal we had lined up fell apart instantly. In this episode, I walk you guys through everything that happened — the lender delays, the accident, the insurance process, the missed deadlines, the backup buyers that vanished, and the financial pressure we're now navigating. This is the real side of multifamily that nobody posts about. We talk about: – How the accident killed the sale – Why insurance and permits slowed everything down – The cash flow and holding-cost punch we're dealing with – The impact on our partners' liquidity – How time destroys IRR in a flip scenario – What we're doing next to stabilize, re-lease, and relist – Why operators earn their keep in moments like this If you're thinking about becoming a GP, or you already operate deals, this is a must-listen. This is the part of multifamily nobody glamorizes — and it's exactly why you need the right systems, the right expectations, and the right team. Want tools, templates, or to work with me?

In this episode, we unpack Google's internal directive that its AI compute capacity must double every six months to keep up with surging demand. We explore what this pace means for Google's infrastructure strategy and the future of large-scale AI growth.Get the top 40+ AI Models for $20 at AI Box: ⁠⁠https://aibox.aiAI Chat YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@JaedenSchaferJoin my AI Hustle Community: https://www.skool.com/aihustleSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

As market murmurs about an AI bubble, our Head of Corporate Credit Research Andrew Sheets offers some perspective on the impacts of the increasing demand for debt.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Head of Corporate Credit Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, a look at a very different type of challenge for credit markets. It's Friday, November 21st at 6pm in Singapore. It has now been well over 15 years since the Global Financial Crisis shook the credit markets to its very core. It's hard to state just how extreme that period was. How many usual relationships and valuation approaches broke. It saw the worst credit losses in 80 years; I think, and hope, that this record will hold for the next 80. This shock, however, did have a silver lining for the credit market. After a crisis that was driven by bank balance sheets being too large and complex, they shrank and simplified. After companies saw capital markets suddenly shut, they increased their cash levels and often managed themselves more conservatively. The housing market long, the engine of debt growth in the U.S. saw much tighter lending standards and less overall borrowing. And so, all these trends had a common theme. Less bond supply. The credit market has seen numerous bouts of volatility in the years since. But these have generally been driven by concerns around the macro economy, like the eurozone crisis or COVID. Or they've been driven by companies' specific issues such as weakness around the oil sector in the mid 2010s or the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank in 2023. The idea that there would be too much borrowing for the level of demand and that this causes market weakness, well, it just hasn't been an issue. Until – that is – now. As we've discussed on this program, there is an enormous increase underway in the amount of capital expenditure by technology companies as they look to build out the infrastructure that supports their cloud and AI ambitions. Morgan Stanley Equity Research estimates that the largest spenders will commit about $470 billion of spending this year and [$]620 billion of spending next year. That's over $1 trillion of spending in just a two-year period. And it's still growing. We see a lot of momentum behind this spending, as the companies doing it have both enormous financial resources and see it as central to their future ambitions. But all this spending, however, will need to come from somewhere. These are often very profitable companies and so we think about half will be funded from their cash flows. The other half, well, debt markets will play a big role, especially as these companies are often highly rated and so have significant capacity to borrow more. And over the last few weeks, those spigots have now turned on. Several large technology hyperscalers have been borrowing tens of billions at a clip, and they've been doing this in short succession. There is some good news here. This new borrowing has been coming at a discount, with the issuers willing to pay investors a bit more than their existing debt to take it on. Demand in turn has been very high for this debt. And in most cases, this borrowing is still well below anything that could feasibly trigger rating agency action. But it is raising a very different type of issue after a long period where, generally speaking, investors have rarely worried about excessive supply – these are very large deals coming at very large discounts, and they are moving the market. If a AA rated company is in the market willing to pay the same as a current single A, well, that existing single A credit just simply looks less attractive. As far as problems go, we think this is a generally less scary one for the market to face but is a new challenge – something we haven't encountered for some time. And based on the aforementioned spending plans, it may be with us for some time to come. Thank you as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen, and also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

This episode is sponsored by Fidelity Investments and the all-new Fidelity Trader+ platform. Try Fidelity's most powerful trading experience yet: ⁠⁠⁠https://www.fidelity.com/trading/trading-platforms?immid=100734&imm_pid=430504639&imm_aid=a&dfid=&buf=99999999⁠⁠⁠ Views, opinions, products, services, and strategies discussed are not endorsed or promoted by Fidelity Investments. Fidelity Brokerage Services LLC, Member NYSE, SIPC Dan Nathan and Guy Adami are joined by Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital. They discuss a range of topics including market volatility, AI investment trends, consumer spending patterns, and economic forecasts. Calvasina highlights the increasing nervousness among investors regarding high valuations and the potential impact of delayed Fed rate cuts. She notes the importance of monitoring CapEx and regulatory changes, especially as they pertain to AI and tech sectors. The conversation touches on geopolitical dynamics with China and the upcoming US midterm elections, emphasizing their potential market implications. The session is rich with insights into the current market climate, investor sentiment, and future economic expectations. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Live from Morgan Stanley's Asian Pacific Summit, our Chief Fixed Income Strategist Vishy Tirupattur explains why micro trends are likely to be more on focus than macro shocks next year.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Vishy Tirupattur: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I am Vishy Tirupattur, Morgan Stanley's Chief Fixed Income Strategist, coming to you from the Morgan Stanley Asia Pacific Summit underway in Singapore. Much of the client conversation at the summit was about the market outlook for 2026. In the last few days, you've heard from my colleagues about our outlook for the global economy, equities and cross asset markets. On today's podcast, I will focus on the outlook and key themes ahead for the global fixed income market. It's Thursday, November 20th at 10am in Singapore. Last year, the difficulty of predicting policy really complicated our task. This year brings its own challenges. But what we see is micro trends driving the markets in ways that adapt to a generally positive stance on risk. Our economists' base case sees continued disinflation and growth converging towards potential by 2027, with the possibility that the potential itself improves. Notably, they present upside scenarios exploring stronger demand and rising productivity, while the downside case remains relatively benign. The U.S. remains pivotal, and the U.S. led shocks – positive and negative – should drive outcomes for the global economy and markets in 2026, In 2025, the combination of a resilient U.S. consumer supported by healthy balance sheets and rising wealth alongside robust AI driven CapEx has underpinned growth and helped avoid recession despite the headwinds of trade policy. These same dynamics should continue to support the baseline outlook in 2026, even though the path will be likely uneven. The Fed faces a familiar conundrum softening labor markets versus solid spending. The baseline assumes cuts to neutral as unemployment rises, followed by a recovery in the second half. Outside the U.S., most economies trend towards potential growth and neutral policy rates by end of 2026, but the timing and the trajectory vary. And as in recent years, global outcomes will likely hinge on U.S.-led effects and their spillovers. Our macro strategists expect government bond yields to stay range bound, and it is really a story of two halves. A front-loaded rally as the Fed cuts 50 basis points, pushing 10-year yields lower by mid-year before drifting higher into the fourth quarter. Curve steepening remains our high conviction call, especially two stents curve. The dollar follows a similar arc, softening mid-year, and then rebounding into the year end. AI financing moves to the forefront putting credit markets in focus, a topic that has come up repeatedly in every single meeting I've had in Singapore so far. So, from unsecured to structured and securitized credit in both public markets and private markets, credit will likely play a central role in enabling the next wave of AI related investments. Our credit and securitized credit strategists see data center financing in 2026 dominated by investment rate issuance. While fundamentals in corporate and securitized credit remain solid, the very scale of issuance ahead points to spread widening investment rate and in data center related ABS. Carry remains a key driver for credit returns, but dispersion should rise. Segments relatively insulated from the AI related supply such as U.S. high yield, agency brokerage backed securities, non-agency CMBS and RMBS are poised to outperform. We favor agency MBS and senior securitized tranches over U.S. investment grade, especially as domestic bank demand for agency MBS returns post finalization of the Basel III. 2025 was a tough year to navigate, and while we are constructive on 2026, it won't be a walk in the park. The challenges ahead look different. Less about macro shocks, more about micro shifts and market nuance. More details in our outlooks published just a few days ago. Thanks for listening If you like the podcast, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.

Our Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter and Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang return to conclude their two-part episode on 2026 outlooks and explain why the market environment is turning in favor of risk assets, especially U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts in the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist.Serena Tang: And I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist.Seth Carpenter: Yesterday, Serena, we discussed our views on the global economy, and today I'm going to turn the tables on you and start asking you questions about our market outlook and how to invest across regions and across asset classes.It's Tuesday, November 18th at 10am in New York.Alright, Serena in 2025, global markets rode some significant volatility driven by tariffs, policy uncertainty. Things went up, they went down. Equities ultimately outperformed bonds as rate cuts began. But cross-asset strategy depended so much on identifying correlations, opportunities – all in a world that is still adapting to the new geopolitical dynamics and what seemed like evolving rules.So, with that backdrop, could you just broadly tell us what the investment strategy should be in 2026?Serena Tang: We think 2026 will be a strong year for risk assets as you have unusually pro-cyclical policy mix that's supportive of earnings. And that frees up markets to shift the focus from global macro concerns, which of course have dominated this year, to more micro asset specific narratives. Particularly those related to AI CapEx investment.And I think such a constructive environment really calls for a risk on tilt. We recommend equities over credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets.Seth Carpenter: Okay. I think last year we had some preference, at least for U.S. equities. Are there any other big rotations versus more of the same that you really want to highlight for folks?Serena Tang: In terms of, I think the strategy outlook itself, a big shift has been what we think drive investor focus the most. Our strategy mid-year outlook had focused heavily on global macro risks, right? Especially those, I think, emanated from trade tensions, which you alluded to earlier.I think this time around as the distribution of outcomes on tariffs, I think, has become a bit narrower, it's very much more about asset specific stories. And yes, you know, to your point about being, bullish on U.S. equities, we've maintained that view this time round and believe that U.S. equities can generally do better than rest of world.As you know, Mike Wilson, a colleague and chief U.S. equity strategist, he has a price target of 7800 for the S&P 500 index …Seth Carpenter: Wow.Serena Tang: Beating the expected returns from other regional equities by like quite a bit. So that's not changed. But I think that with this backdrop of post cyclical policy combo lifting U.S. earnings, we've also turned more bullish on high-yield corporate credit – that is bonds which are riskier.I think very much like U.S. equities, we believe that the asset class can benefit from the combination of monetary deregulation policy. But there's also like a very interesting technical component there, which is, as we expect, a surge in investment grade issuance to fund AI related CapEx. I think the high-yield market will be more insulated from this, which means outperformance versus higher quality corporate bonds.Seth Carpenter: Got it. Okay. So, as you're coming up with these strategies and these recommendations in lots of ways, it just relies on forecasting. And I have to say I'm sympathetic to how hard forecasting is, especially when it comes to the future. In our economic forecast, we also included a bunch of different alternate scenarios because I just see that much uncertainty in the global economy.So, with that as a backdrop, nothing is for sure. But where would you say your highest conviction calls are when it comes to investing in 2026?Serena Tang: Well, as I mentioned, we like U.S. equities and that remains a very high conviction call for us. [I] sort of dug through the details of that already. And so, I want to turn to a[n]other high conviction view, which is curve steepening. We see pretty material U.S. treasury curve steepening over the next year. I think even as a macro strategist, actually expect yields at least in the backend to be mostly range bound. And this steepening will be very much driven by what happens in the two-year point – I think as markets continue to, we think, underpriced, future Fed easing and growth slow down tail risks.Seth Carpenter: So that's super helpful in terms of the places where you're convicted. Let me be perhaps a little bit unfair because nothing is in fact certain. And so, if there are things that we feel pretty sure about, there've got to be things where we're either not sure or parts of the market that really pose the most risk.So, if I asked you then, where do you see the biggest risk for investors in markets next year, what would you say?Serena Tang: So, one of them really is AI investment cycle abruptly ending. And this has been a topic of huge debate in all of the investor meetings that we've had over the last several weeks. Because the idea is you have a sharp pullback in investment in the next 12 months, which could trigger a pretty cascading effect. And of course that would likely pressure U.S. equities, I think given hyperscalers index weight. But could weirdly enough benefit IG credit by reducing issuance, which has been the main driver of wider spreads in our forecast. But I think the other risk here actually is if animal spirits run a bit too hot. Underlying our equities over credit over rates allocation is some revival in animal spirits, but it's not the kind of irrational exuberance that marks the end of cycle in our view.Given, I think there's still rational belief in that policy triumvirate that we touched on earlier, that can still be supportive of risk. But you know, I think if sentiment does overheat then our allocation tilt towards cyclicals and beta would be wrong. And historically late cycle expansions see investment grade outperforming high yield inequities, with bonds eventually leading returns.The last risk, I think, to our asset allocation, is really the Fed. Either the FOMC not easing further over the next 12 months or if it changes its reaction function. And I think both of those will have very different implications of what happens to the front end of the yield curve. So, my question to you, Seth, is what do you see as the probability around both of those scenarios?Seth Carpenter: Look, with the data that we have before the government shut down, it was clear there was a tension. Spending by households, spending by businesses was strong. Employment data were getting weaker and weaker, and the Fed has decided to start cutting to err on the side of insulating against further deterioration in the labor market.So, one thing that could upend our forecast is that the real signal is from the spending. Spending stays strong, the labor market eventually catches up to the stronger spending, and we start to see job gains come back. If that happens, especially with inflation now running notably above the Fed's target, I just don't really think we're going to get anywhere near the number of rate cuts that we forecast or that are already priced into market. So, you'd have to see a reversal.How likely is that you can't rule it out? I'd say 20 percent or something like that. Maybe a little bit more. On the other hand, to the downside. I wonder if what you're getting at a little bit is there's going to be some turnover in the personnel at the Fed. And do we have to worry about a fundamentally different reaction function from the Fed going forward and cutting rates aggressively, even if the macro considerations don't warrant? Is that really what you were getting at?Serena Tang: Yes. I think that has been the question on the forefront of investors' minds…Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I think that's a real question. The way I look at it is Chair Powell is in charge of the Fed now. His term goes through May of next year. And so, until we get to the middle of next year, I don't really think there's any fundamental change in how the Fed does business. But it really does seem like we're going to have a new Fed chair in June of next year. But even there, we have got to remember that the committee is a committee and that's how policy is decided. And so, if there was a new chair who really, really, really wanted to take policy in a truly unorthodox way, I also don't think that's really feasible over the second half of next year – because there just won't have been that much turnover in terms of the personnel of the Fed. That's how we're looking at it for now. I really don't think that latter version of the world is a big risk. That said, I'm going to throw it back to you [be]cause I always have to get the last word.You talked about asset classes, bullish on U.S. equities. We talked about high yield bonds; we talked about some of the risks that markets have to face. But one thing I didn't hear – and we do have a global investor base – Is about currencies and specifically the dollar.So, this time last year, the team made a pretty bold call that the dollar would depreciate a great deal. And here we are and the dollar has come off a lot on net over this year. That stabilized a little bit. Maybe not for the whole year [be]cause that kind of forecasting is hard for currencies. But what do you see over the next few months called the next half year for the dollar? Is it going to continue the trend or do you think we should see a reversal?Serena Tang: So, we do think the dollar will continue its trend downwards from here to the middle of next year. And I know, I know. There's been a lot of discussion, there's been a lot of debate around whether the dollar has basically stopped where we are. But the thing is, you know, going back to what you mentioned around the path for growth in the U.S. and unemployment in the U.S. – if we do see softer economic data in the first half of next year, that can drive the dollar downwards. In fact, we're once again, more bearish than consensus on the dollar by the middle of next year.Seth Carpenter: Got it. All right. That's super helpful. Serena, thank you so much for taking the time to talk with me today and let me ask the questions of you.Serena Tang: Always a pleasure, Seth.Seth Carpenter: And thank you for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or a colleague today.

In Episode 449 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with Chase Taylor, head of research at Bulwark Capital Management and founder of Pinecone Macro Research about investment opportunities around the buildout of the new "electric stack" and the AI CapEx Boom that relies on them. Chase and Demetri spend the first hour of this episode exploring his methodology, how he extracts signals from noise, and why a multidisciplinary approach to investing is especially important during periods of disruptive sociopolitical and technological change like the kind we are experiencing today. They then apply these ideas to two important technological trends underway in the global economy: (1) the transformation of the so-called "electric stack" or electro-industrial stack and (2) the AI CapEx Boom that relies on it. They begin with a deep-dive exploration of the dramatic cost declines happening across the entire electric stack, beginning with the addition of new sources of energy, advancements in battery technology for storage, the use of magnets and motors that turn electricity into mechanical motion, power electronics that shape it into the precise force needed by today's technologies, and the embedded compute that orchestrates and decides how and when to put that force into action. They discuss the sources of China's dominance in this industry, the horizontal complementarities in its manufacturing ecosystems, the advantages of vertical integration, and what America and Europe need to do in order to remain competitive in this new industrial ecosystem. The second hour is devoted to exploring the implications for investors of the current AI CapEx boom, how the USD might behave in a growth slowdown scenario post-Liberation Day, and what the Trump administration's military and covert action threats against Maduro's regime in Venezuela can tell us about his foreign policy and whether we are returning to a more colonial phase of domination by the American empire over the Western hemisphere. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 11/10/2025

In the first of a two-part episode presenting our 2026 outlooks, Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist Serena Tang has Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter explain his thoughts on how economies around the world are expected to perform and how central banks may respond.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Serena Tang: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Serena Tang, Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Cross-Asset Strategist. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist. Serena Tang: So today and tomorrow, a two-part conversation on Morgan Stanley's year ahead outlook. Today, we'll focus on the all-important macroeconomic backdrop. And tomorrow, we'll be back with our views on investing across asset classes and markets. Serena Tang: It's Monday, November 17th at 10am in New York. So, Seth, 2025 has been a year of transition. Global growth slowed under the weight of tariffs and policy uncertainty. Yet resilience in consumer spending and AI driven investments kept recession fears at bay. Your team has published its economic outlook for 2026. So, what's your view on global growth for the year ahead? Seth Carpenter: We really think next year is going to be the global economy slowing down a little bit more just like it did this year, settling into a slower growth rate. But at the same time, we think inflation is going to keep drifting down in most of the world. Now that anodyne view, though, masks some heterogeneity around the world; and importantly, some real uncertainty about different ways things could possibly go. Here in the U.S., we think there is more slowing to come in the near term, especially the fourth quarter of this year and the beginning of next year. But once the economy works its way through the tariffs, maybe some of the lagged effects of monetary policy, we'll start to see things pick up a bit in the second half of the year. China's a different story. We see the really tepid growth there pushed down by the deflationary spiral they've been in. We think that continues for next year, and so they're probably not quite going to get to their 5 percent growth target. And in Europe, there's this push and pull of fiscal policy across the continent. There's a central bank that thinks they've achieved their job in terms of inflation, but overall, we think growth there is, kind of, unremarkable, a little bit over 1 percent. Not bad, but nothing to write home about at all. So that's where we think things are going in general. But I have to say next year, may well be a year for surprises. Serena Tang: Right. So where do you see the biggest drivers of global growth in 2026, and what are some of the key downside risks? Seth Carpenter: That's a great question. I really do think that the U.S. is going to be a real key driver of the story here. And in fact – and maybe we'll talk about this later – if we're wrong, there's some upside scenarios, there's some downside scenarios. But most of them around the world are going to come from the U.S. Two things are going on right now in the U.S. We've had strong spending data. We've also had very, very weak employment data. That usually doesn't last for very long. And so that's why we think in the near term there's some slowdown in the U.S. and then over time things recover. We could be wrong in either direction. And so, if we're wrong and the labor market sending the real signal, then the downside risk to the U.S. economy – and by extension the global economy – really is a recession in the U.S. Now, given the starting point, given how low unemployment is, given the spending businesses are doing for AI, if we did get that recession, it would be mild. On the other hand, like I said, spending is strong. Business spending, especially CapEx for AI; household spending, especially at the top end of the income distribution where wealth is rising from stocks, where the liability side of the balance sheet is insulated with fixed rate mortgages. That spending could just stay strong, and we might see this upside surprise where the spending really dominates the scene. And again, that would spill over for the rest of the world. What I don't see is a lot of reason to suspect that you're going to get a big breakout next year to the upside or the downside from either Europe or China, relative to our baseline scenarios. It could happen, but I really think most of the story is going to be driven in the U.S. Serena Tang: So, Seth, markets have been focused on the Fed, as it should. What is the likely path in 2026 and how are you thinking about central bank policy in general in other regions? Seth Carpenter: Absolutely. The Fed is always of central importance to most people in markets. Our view – and the market's view, I have to say, has been evolving here. Our view is that the Fed's actually got a few more rate cuts to get through, and that by the time we get to the middle of next year, the middle of 2026, they're going to have their policy rate down just a little bit above 3 percent. So roughly where the committee thinks neutral is. Why do we think that? I think the slowing in the labor market that we talked about before, we think there's something kind of durable there. And now that the government shutdown has ended and we're going to start to get regular data prints again, we think the data are going to show that job creation has been below 50,000 per month on average, and maybe even a few of them are going to get to be negative over the next several months. In that situation, we think the Fed's going to get more inclination to guard against further deterioration in the labor market by keeping cutting rates and making sure that the central bank is not putting any restraint on the economy. That's similar, I would say, to a lot of other developed markets' central banks. But the tension for the ECB, for example, is that President Lagarde has said she thinks; she thinks the disinflationary process is over. She thinks sitting at 2 percent for the policy rate, which the ECB thinks of as neutral, then that's the right place for them to be. Our take though is that the data are going to push them in a different direction. We think there is clearly growth in Europe, but we think it's tepid. And as a result, the disinflationary process has really still got some more room to run and that inflation will undershoot their 2 percent target, and as a result, the ECB is probably going to cut again. And in our view, down to about 1.5 percent. Big difference is in Japan. Japan is the developed market central bank that's hiking. Now, when does that happen? Our best guess is next month in December at the policy meeting. We've seen this shift towards reflation. It hasn't been smooth, hasn't been perfectly linear. But the BoJ looks like they're set to raise rates again in December. But the path for inflation is going to be a bit rocky, and so, they're probably on hold for most of 2026. But we do think eventually, maybe not till 2027, they get back to hiking again – so that Governor Ueda can get the policy rate back close to neutral before he steps down. Serena Tang: So, one of the main investor debates is on AI. Whether it's CapEx, productivity, the future of work. How is that factoring into your team's view on growth and inflation for the next year? Seth Carpenter: Yeah, I mean that is absolutely a key question that we get all the time from investors around the world. When I think about AI and how it's affecting the economy, I think about the demand side of the economy, and that's where you think about this CapEx spending – building data centers, buying semiconductors, that sort of thing. That's demand in the economy. It's using up current resources in the economy, and it's got to be somewhat inflationary. It's part of what has kept the U.S. economy buoyant and resilient this year – is that CapEx spending. Now you also mentioned productivity, and for me, that's on the supply side of the economy. That's after the technology is in place. After firms have started to adopt the technology, they're able to produce either the same amount with fewer workers, or they're able to produce more with the same amount of workers. Either way, that's what productivity means, and it's on the supply side. It can mean faster growth and less inflation. I think where we are for 2026, and it's important that we focus it on the near term, is the demand side is much more important than the supply side. So, we think growth continues. It's supported by this business investment spending. But we still think inflation ends 2026, notably above the Fed's inflation target. And it's going to make five, five and a half years that we've been above target. Productivity should kick in. And we've written down something close to a quarter percentage point of extra productivity growth for 2026, but not enough to really be super disinflationary. We think that builds over time, probably takes a couple of years. And for example, if we think about some of the announcements about these data centers that are being built, where they're really going to unleash the potential of AI, those aren't going to be completed for a couple of years anyway. So, I think for now, AI is dominating the demand side of the economy. Over the next few years, it's going to be a real boost to the supply side of the economy. Serena Tang: So that makes a lot of sense to me, Seth. But can you put those into numbers? Seth Carpenter: Sure, Serena totally. In numbers, that's about 3 percent growth. A little bit more than that for global GDP growth on like a Q4-over-Q4 basis. But for the U.S. in particular, we've got about 1.75 percent. So that's not appreciably different from what we're looking for this year in 2025. But the number really, kind of, masks the evolution over time. We think the front part of the year is going to be much weaker. And only once we get into the second half of next year will things start to pick up. That said, compared to where we were when we did the midyear outlook, it's actually a notable upgrade. We've taken real signal from the fact that business spending, household spending have both been stronger than we think. And we've tried to add in just a little bit more in terms of productivity growth from AI. Layer on top of that, the Fed who's been clearly willing to start to ease interest rates sooner than we thought at the time of the mid-year outlook – all comes together for a little bit better outlook for growth for 2026 in the U.S. Serena Tang: Seth thanks so much for taking the time to talk. Seth Carpenter: Serena, it is always my pleasure to get to talk to you. Serena Tang: And thanks for listening. Please be sure to tune into the second half of our conversation tomorrow to hear how we're thinking about investment strategy in the year ahead. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Live from Morgan Stanley's European Tech, Media and Telecom Conference in Barcelona, our roundtable of analysts discusses tech disruptions and datacenter growth, and how Europe factors in.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Paul Walsh: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Paul Walsh, Morgan Stanley's European Head of Research Product. Today we return to my conversation with Adam Wood. Head of European Technology and Payments, Emmet Kelly, Head of European Telco and Data Centers, and Lee Simpson, Head of European Technology. We were live on stage at Morgan Stanley's 25th TMT Europe conference. We had so much to discuss around the themes of AI enablers, semiconductors, and telcos. So, we are back with a concluding episode on tech disruption and data center investments. It's Thursday the 13th of November at 8am in Barcelona. After speaking with the panel about the U.S. being overweight AI enablers, and the pockets of opportunity in Europe, I wanted to ask them about AI disruption, which has been a key theme here in Europe. I started by asking Adam how he was thinking about this theme. Adam Wood: It's fascinating to see this year how we've gone in most of those sectors to how positive can GenAI be for these companies? How well are they going to monetize the opportunities? How much are they going to take advantage internally to take their own margins up? To flipping in the second half of the year, mainly to, how disruptive are they going to be? And how on earth are they going to fend off these challenges? Paul Walsh: And I think that speaks to the extent to which, as a theme, this has really, you know, built momentum. Adam Wood: Absolutely. And I mean, look, I think the first point, you know, that you made is absolutely correct – that it's very difficult to disprove this. It's going to take time for that to happen. It's impossible to do in the short term. I think the other issue is that what we've seen is – if we look at the revenues of some of the companies, you know, and huge investments going in there. And investors can clearly see the benefit of GenAI. And so investors are right to ask the question, well, where's the revenue for these businesses? You know, where are we seeing it in info services or in IT services, or in enterprise software. And the reality is today, you know, we're not seeing it. And it's hard for analysts to point to evidence that – well, no, here's the revenue base, here's the benefit that's coming through. And so, investors naturally flip to, well, if there's no benefit, then surely, we should focus on the risk. So, I think we totally understand, you know, why people are focused on the negative side of things today. I think there are differences between the sub-sectors. I mean, I think if we look, you know, at IT services, first of all, from an investor point of view, I think that's been pretty well placed in the losers' buckets and people are most concerned about that sub-sector… Paul Walsh: Something you and the global team have written a lot about. Adam Wood: Yeah, we've written about, you know, the risk of disruption in that space, the need for those companies to invest, and then the challenges they face. But I mean, if we just keep it very, very simplistic. If Gen AI is a technology that, you know, displaces labor to any extent – companies that have played labor arbitrage and provide labor for the last 20 - 25 years, you know, they're going to have to make changes to their business model. So, I think that's understandable. And they're going to have to demonstrate how they can change and invest and produce a business model that addresses those concerns. I'd probably put info services in the middle. But the challenge in that space is you have real identifiable companies that have emerged, that have a revenue base and that are challenging a subset of the products of those businesses. So again, it's perfectly understandable that investors would worry. In that context, it's not a potential threat on the horizon. It's a real threat that exists today against certainly their businesses. I think software is probably the most interesting. I'd put it in the kind of final bucket where I actually believe… Well, I think first of all, we certainly wouldn't take the view that there's no risk of disruption and things aren't going to change. Clearly that is going to be the case. I think what we'd want to do though is we'd want to continue to use frameworks that we've used historically to think about how software companies differentiate themselves, what the barriers to entry are. We don't think we need to throw all of those things away just because we have GenAI, this new set of capabilities. And I think investors will come back most easily to that space. Paul Walsh: Emett, you talked a little bit there before about the fact that you haven't seen a huge amount of progress or additional insight from the telco space around AI; how AI is diffusing across the space. Do you get any discussions around disruption as it relates to telco space? Emmet Kelly: Very, very little. I think the biggest threat that telcos do see is – it is from the hyperscalers. So, if I look at and separate the B2C market out from the B2B, the telcos are still extremely dominant in the B2C space, clearly. But on the B2B space, the hyperscalers have come in on the cloud side, and if you look at their market share, they're very, very dominant in cloud – certainly from a wholesale perspective. So, if you look at the cloud market shares of the big three hyperscalers in Europe, this number is courtesy of my colleague George Webb. He said it's roughly 85 percent; that's how much they have of the cloud space today. The telcos, what they're doing is they're actually reselling the hyperscale service under the telco brand name. But we don't see much really in terms of the pure kind of AI disruption, but there are concerns definitely within the telco space that the hyperscalers might try and move from the B2B space into the B2C space at some stage. And whether it's through virtual networks, cloudified networks, to try and get into the B2C space that way. Paul Walsh: Understood. And Lee maybe less about disruption, but certainly adoption, some insights from your side around adoption across the tech hardware space? Lee Simpson: Sure. I think, you know, it's always seen that are enabling the AI move, but, but there is adoption inside semis companies as well, and I think I'd point to design flow. So, if you look at the design guys, they're embracing the agentic system thing really quickly and they're putting forward this capability of an agent engineer, so like a digital engineer. And it – I guess we've got to get this right. It is going to enable a faster time to market for the design flow on a chip. So, if you have that design flow time, that time to market. So, you're creating double the value there for the client. Do you share that 50-50 with them? So, the challenge is going to be exactly as Adam was saying, how do you monetize this stuff? So, this is kind of the struggle that we're seeing in adoption. Paul Walsh: And Emmett, let's move to you on data centers. I mean, there are just some incredible numbers that we've seen emerging, as it relates to the hyperscaler investment that we're seeing in building out the infrastructure. I know data centers is something that you have focused tremendously on in your research, bringing our global perspectives together. Obviously, Europe sits within that. And there is a market here in Europe that might be more challenged. But I'm interested to understand how you're thinking about framing the whole data center story? Implications for Europe. Do European companies feed off some of that U.S. hyperscaler CapEx? How should we be thinking about that through the European lens? Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. So, big question, Paul. What… Paul Walsh: We've got a few minutes! Emmet Kelly: We've got a few minutes. What I would say is there was a great paper that came out from Harvard just two weeks ago, and they were looking at the scale of data center investments in the United States. And clearly the U.S. economy is ticking along very, very nicely at the moment. But this Harvard paper concluded that if you take out data center investments, U.S. economic growth today is actually zero. Paul Walsh: Wow. Emmet Kelly: That is how big the data center investments are. And what we've said in our research very clearly is if you want to build a megawatt of data center capacity that's going to cost you roughly $35 million today. Let's put that number out there. 35 million. Roughly, I'd say 25… Well, 20 to 25 million of that goes into the chips. But what's really interesting is the other remaining $10 million per megawatt, and I like to call that the picks and shovels of data centers; and I'm very convinced there is no bubble in that area whatsoever.So, what's in that area? Firstly, the first building block of a data center is finding a powered land bank. And this is a big thing that private equity is doing at the moment. So, find some real estate that's close to a mass population that's got a good fiber connection. Probably needs a little bit of water, but most importantly needs some power. And the demand for that is still infinite at the moment. Then beyond that, you've got the construction angle and there's a very big shortage of labor today to build the shells of these data centers. Then the third layer is the likes of capital goods, and there are serious supply bottlenecks there as well.And I could go on and on, but roughly that first $10 million, there's no bubble there. I'm very, very sure of that. Paul Walsh: And we conducted some extensive survey work recently as part of your analysis into the global data center market. You've sort of touched on a few of the gating factors that the industry has to contend with. That survey work was done on the operators and the supply chain, as it relates to data center build out. What were the key conclusions from that? Emmet Kelly: Well, the key conclusion was there is a shortage of power for these data centers, and… Paul Walsh: Which I think… Which is a sort of known-known, to some extent. Emmet Kelly: it is a known-known, but it's not just about the availability of power, it's the availability of green power. And it's also the price of power is a very big factor as well because energy is roughly 40 to 45 percent of the operating cost of running a data center. So, it's very, very important. And of course, that's another area where Europe doesn't screen very well.I was looking at statistics just last week on the countries that have got the highest power prices in the world. And unsurprisingly, it came out as UK, Ireland, Germany, and that's three of our big five data center markets. But when I looked at our data center stats at the beginning of the year, to put a bit of context into where we are…Paul Walsh: In Europe… Emmet Kelly: In Europe versus the rest. So, at the end of [20]24, the U.S. data center market had 35 gigawatts of data center capacity. But that grew last year at a clip of 30 percent. China had a data center bank of roughly 22 gigawatts, but that had grown at a rate of just 10 percent. And that was because of the chip issue. And then Europe has capacity, or had capacity at the end of last year, roughly 7 to 8 gigawatts, and that had grown at a rate of 10 percent. Now, the reason for that is because the three big data center markets in Europe are called FLAP-D. So, it's Frankfurt, London, Amsterdam, Paris, and Dublin. We had to put an acronym on it. So, Flap-D. Good news. I'm sitting with the tech guys. They've got even more acronyms than I do, in their sector, so well done them. Lee Simpson: Nothing beats FLAP-D. Paul Walsh: Yes. Emmet Kelly: It's quite an achievement. But what is interesting is three of the big five markets in Europe are constrained. So, Frankfurt, post the Ukraine conflict. Ireland, because in Ireland, an incredible statistic is data centers are using 25 percent of the Irish power grid. Compared to a global average of 3 percent.Now I'm from Dublin, and data centers are running into conflict with industry, with housing estates. Data centers are using 45 percent of the Dublin grid, 45. So, there's a moratorium in building data centers there. And then Amsterdam has the classic semi moratorium space because it's a small country with a very high population. So, three of our five markets are constrained in Europe. What is interesting is it started with the former Prime Minister Rishi Sunak. The UK has made great strides at attracting data center money and AI capital into the UK and the current Prime Minister continues to do that. So, the UK has definitely gone; moved from the middle lane into the fast lane. And then Macron in France. He hosted an AI summit back in February and he attracted over a 100 billion euros of AI and data center commitments. Paul Walsh: And I think if we added up, as per the research that we published a few months ago, Europe's announced over 350 billion euros, in proposed investments around AI. Emmet Kelly: Yeah, absolutely. It's a good stat. Now where people can get a little bit cynical is they can say a couple of things. Firstly, it's now over a year since the Mario Draghi report came out. And what's changed since? Absolutely nothing, unfortunately. And secondly, when I look at powering AI, I like to compare Europe to what's happening in the United States. I mean, the U.S. is giving access to nuclear power to AI. It started with the three Mile Island… Paul Walsh: Yeah. The nuclear renaissance is… Emmet Kelly: Nuclear Renaissance is absolutely huge. Now, what's underappreciated is actually Europe has got a massive nuclear power bank. It's right up there. But unfortunately, we're decommissioning some of our nuclear power around Europe, so we're going the wrong way from that perspective. Whereas President Trump is opening up the nuclear power to AI tech companies and data centers. Then over in the States we also have gas and turbines. That's a very, very big growth area and we're not quite on top of that here in Europe. So, looking at this year, I have a feeling that the Americans will probably increase their data center capacity somewhere between – it's incredible – somewhere between 35 and 50 percent. And I think in Europe we're probably looking at something like 10 percent again. Paul Walsh: Okay. Understood. Emmet Kelly: So, we're growing in Europe, but we're way, way behind as a starting point. And it feels like the others are pulling away. The other big change I'd highlight is the Chinese are really going to accelerate their data center growth this year as well. They've got their act together and you'll see them heading probably towards 30 gigs of capacity by the end of next year. Paul Walsh: Alright, we're out of time. The TMT Edge is alive and kicking in Europe. I want to thank Emmett, Lee and Adam for their time and I just want to wish everybody a great day today. Thank you.(Applause) That was my conversation with Adam, Emmett and Lee. Many thanks again to them. Many thanks again to them for telling us about the latest in their areas of research and to the live audience for hearing us out. And a thanks to you as well for listening. Let us know what you think about this and other episodes by living us a review wherever you get your podcasts. And if you enjoy listening to Thoughts on the Market, please tell a friend or colleague about the podcast today.