Podcast appearances and mentions of kevin muir

In this episode, author of the MacroTourist newsletter Kevin Muir joins the show to unpack why fiscal dominance is the defining force in today's markets. He explains how MMT helped him rethink macro, why higher interest rates have recently been stimulative, and how the U.S. deficit is fueling both market resilience and long-term risk. We also dive into Trump's economic policies, potential capital controls, foreign capital repatriation, the implications for bonds and equities, and why Muir is positioning for FX volatility and a major private credit unwind. Enjoy! __ Follow Kevin: https://x.com/kevinmuir Follow Felix: https://x.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx — Join us at Permissionless IV June 24th - 26th. Use code FG10 for 10% OFF! https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-iv __ Blockdaemon is the gateway to the decentralized economy, securing over $110B in digital assets for 400+ institutions with blockchain nodes, APIs, MPC wallets and vaults, and staking solutions. Learn more: www.blockdaemon.com Arkham is a crypto exchange and a blockchain analytics platform. Arkham allows crypto traders and investors to look inside the wallets of the best traders, largest funds and most influential players in crypto, and then act on that information. Sign up to Arkham: https://auth.arkm.com/register?ref=blockworks Eligibility varies by jurisdiction. Users residing in certain jurisdictions will be excluded from onboarding. Ledger, the world leader in digital asset security for consumers and enterprises, proudly sponsors Forward Guidance, where traditional finance meets crypto. As Ledger celebrates a decade of securing 20% of the world's crypto assets, it offers a secure gateway for those entering digital finance. Buy a LEDGER™ device today and protect your assets with top-tier security technology. Buy now on https://Ledger.com. — Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (01:56) Two Macro Buckets (07:50) Higher Rates Stimulative? (14:03) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger) (15:52) Credit Ratings & Deficits (18:46) Challenges of Cutting Deficits (28:09) Capital Controls Next? (33:02) Time to Own Volatility (38:43) FX Volatility (39:35) Ads (Blockdaemon, Arkham, Ledger) (41:57) Global Inflection Point (49:12) US Bond Market (55:11) Firing Powell & the Dollar (57:28) Equities & Risk Premium (01:01:26) US Outlook: Bullish ROW? (01:06:41) Corporate Credit (01:10:22) Final Thoughts __ Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Kevin Muir, author of the MacroTourist Newsletter, sits down with Zach for a longform discussion. 

In Episode 407 of Hidden Forces, Demetri Kofinas speaks with the Macro Tourist's Kevin Muir about the power of fiscal spending and why fiscal austerity and trade tariffs will lead to lower asset prices, U.S. equity market underperformance, and a falling U.S. dollar. Kevin and Demetri spend the first hour of this podcast discussing the importance of fiscal policy and why government spending has been one of the biggest sources of outperformance for investors in the last five years. They discuss why that's the case, why the effects of fiscal policy continue to be overlooked and discounted relative to monetary policy, and what this means going forward if we take the Trump team at his word about wanting to reduce the deficit and scale back on fiscal spending. In the second hour, Muir and Kofinas dig even deeper into the fiscal spending implications for U.S. equity and bond markets, concerns about rotation risk into global equities, the investment opportunities in Europe and Asia, downside risks to the US dollar, the China gold put, and much more. Subscribe to our premium content—including our premium feed, episode transcripts, and Intelligence Reports—by visiting HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you'd like to join the conversation and become a member of the Hidden Forces Genius community—with benefits like Q&A calls with guests, exclusive research and analysis, in-person events, and dinners—you can also sign up on our subscriber page at HiddenForces.io/subscribe. If you enjoyed today's episode of Hidden Forces, please support the show by: Subscribing on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, Stitcher, SoundCloud, CastBox, or via our RSS Feed Writing us a review on Apple Podcasts & Spotify Joining our mailing list at https://hiddenforces.io/newsletter/ Producer & Host: Demetri Kofinas Editor & Engineer: Stylianos Nicolaou Subscribe and support the podcast at https://hiddenforces.io. Join the conversation on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter at @hiddenforcespod Follow Demetri on Twitter at @Kofinas Episode Recorded on 03/24/2025

There's a lot of urgency right now in America to reduce the fiscal deficit via the new D.O.G.E and also to reduce its trade deficit via the threat of tariffs.Both initiatives are creating a lot of disruption right now, and have their fair share of vocal supporters and detractors.Are they likely to work? And at what cost?For discuss, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as one of the top financial Substacks in the world. In a nutshell, Kevin thinks nearly all US assets, including the dollar, are woefully overvalued.Just as capital flowed into the US over the past decade, pushing all these assets ever higher, he expects the coming years to see capital flowing out of the US, leading to chronic underperformance vs international assets.BUY YOUR TICKET AT THE 'LAST CHANCE TO SAVE' PRICE FOR OUR MARCH 15 CONFERENCE at https://thoughtfulmoney.com/conference

Is the stock market walking off a cliff and investors don't see it coming? Macro investor Kevin Muir, author of the MacroTourist Newsletter, joins Maggie Lake to break down why we've entered a new economic era—one where tariffs, trade deficits, and fiscal tightening could reshape markets in ways most investors aren't ready for.

Podcast Episode REDP EP77

Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Kevin Muir, the author of the Macro Tourist Newsletter and Substack, and co-host of The Market Huddle. Muir discusses market dynamics since the election, emphasizing that volatility has returned due to Trump's unpredictable tweets and policies, particularly regarding tariffs and trade deficits. He argues for acknowledging these shifts rather than denying them. Muir explains how reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation of US stocks. He attributes globalization over the past two decades to an increase in global profits, but suggests that Trump's efforts to reverse this trend and bring jobs back to the U.S. might result in higher labor costs and less capital flowing into the U.S. financial markets, potentially leading to lower stock prices for the US market compared to others. Muir criticizes passive flows as the primary cause of high stock valuations and expresses skepticism about certain high-growth companies trading at such high valuations indefinitely. He also discusses potential implications if Trump successfully eliminates the US trade deficit. Furthermore, Muir shares his belief that Trump could potentially lead to a weak dollar due to tariffs, devaluation of the dollar, and lower interest rates. He expresses uncertainty about Trump's intentions regarding monetary policy and the Federal Reserve, noting potential opposition. Muir favors investing in resource stocks of Canadian companies and financial assets due to economic challenges faced by future leaders in Canada. He also criticizes President Trump's deregulation efforts and tax cuts, expressing concern over potential inflation or recession depending on public reaction and private sector credit creation. Muir emphasizes the importance of considering gold trading from a long-term strategic perspective with the People's Bank of China (PBOC) being the most important player due to their vast US dollar reserves and increasing diversification into gold for safety reasons. He advises traders to adopt a similar approach and not be swayed by short-term market fluctuations or technical analysis. Gold may ultimately be chased at the end of the accumulation process, according to Muir. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:03 - Volatility & Election8:16 - Trade Deficits & Equities13:50 - Valuation Drivers22:29 - Rates & the Dollar30:24 - The Fed Vs. Trump36:17 - Recession Forecasts?37:42 - Japanese Yen40:23 - The Canadian Loonies50:12 - Managing Expectations57:04 - Change & Openmindedness1:00:41 - China's Gold Reserves1:06:10 - Golden Fundamentals1:11:00 - Outlook For Miners1:15:04 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Volatility back in markets due to Trump's unpredictable policies on tariffs and trade deficits. Reducing the US trade deficit could lead to devaluation in US equities. Trump's actions might result in a weak dollar, lower interest rates, and potential monetary policy opposition from the Federal Reserve. Guest Links:Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes." Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.

FRIENDS AND ENEMIES Join us for some QUALITY Bitcoin and economics talk, with a Canadian focus, every Monday at 7 PM EST. This week we welcome first time CBP guest Kevin Muir. Kevin is a former bank equity index derivative trader who for the past two decades has been trading purely on a proprietary basis for both himself and other individuals. He writes the lauded Macro Tourist substack letter, and I've been a fan of his for sometime through his podcast, The Market Huddle. From a couple of Canucks who like to talk about how Bitcoin will impact Canada. As always, none of the info is financial advice. Website: ⁠www.CanadianBitcoiners.com ⁠Discord: https://discord.com/invite/YgPJVbGCZX A part of the CBP Media Network: ⁠www.twitter.com/CBPMediaNetwork This show is sponsored by: easyDNS - ⁠⁠https://easydns.com/⁠⁠ EasyDNS is the best spot for Anycast DNS, domain name registrations, web and email services. They are fast, reliable and privacy focused. You can even pay for your services with Bitcoin! Apply coupon code 'CBPMEDIA' for 50% off initial purchase Bull Bitcoin - ⁠⁠https://mission.bullbitcoin.com/cbp⁠⁠ The CBP recommends Bull Bitcoin for all your BTC needs. There's never been a quicker, simpler, way to acquire Bitcoin. Use the link above for $20 bones, and take advantage of all Bull Bitcoin has to offer.

Kevin Muir on the coming all-time low in the Canadian dollar and why an 8-10% inflation rate is possible. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Canada imported antisemitism, and the federal government has a plan that will make it worse. The MacroTourist, Kevin Muir on the coming new low in the loonie and why an 8-10% inflation rate is possible. And a Goofy on why giving 16-year-olds the vote is a hall of fame bad idea. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame. The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages. Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate cuts. And geopolitical tensions have puckered tighter following the escalation of hostilities between Iran and Israel. Is the exuberant sentiment that drove the past year's bull market now gone? Or it is just taking a breather before continuing to climb what has suddenly become a much steeper Wall Of Worry? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world.  Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/ WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #marketcorrection #volatility #investing

"When trading, are you more interested in being right, or are you more interested in making money? And I ultimately just look at it like ‘I just want to make money, and…make the best returns I can', and so therefore I need to stay open to different ideas.” - Kevin Muir--This week's episode features another one of Chase's greatest mentors, Kevin Muir. Kevin is a prototype of the kind of investor we're trying to highlight on this podcast. He's a markets scientist who isn't afraid to explore new ideas and find himself wrong after that process. His open-mindedness has led him to some great theories that we dig deeper into for this episode. --Timestamps:-- (00:01) - Intro-- (03:19)- Kevin's Charity: Covenant House-- (04:39) -Why Kevin loves the markets-- (05:39)- James Aiken's philosophy on overload-- (10:56)- How Kevin discovered MMT wasn't the stupidest thing he ever heard-- (15:10)- Tim Urban and the “high rung” approach to ideas--(17:41)- How do you intentionally stay open to new ideas?--(23:55)- Systematic Investing Flows--(30:01)- Tried and True Indicators can't always help (Yield Curve Inversion)--(39:25)- Must Read Books for Traders --(45:27)- Between Two Pines--(53:25)- Simple morning rituals set you up for a full day of markets, and you should adjust your reading to the macro environment--(56:18)- Different life priorities led Kevin from working at a bank to operating the Macro Tourist --(1:01:43)- “New techs” cause mini-rolling bubbles and never underestimate the stupidity of regional bank CEOs--(1:07:14)- Plugs--This Episode's Charity:The Covenant House of Toronto aims to serve youth who are homeless, trafficked, or at risk. They're located in the heart of Toronto and offer youth ages 16-24 essential services such as medical care, food, and shelter. Kevin and Chase raised $100 for charity this week! --Referenced in the Show:What's Our Problem?: A Self-Help Book for Societies by Tim UrbanIs Inflation Ending: Are You Ready? by A. Gary Shilling and Kiril Sokoloff The Logical Trader: Applying a Method to the Madness by Mark FisherThe Alchemy of Finance by George SorosKevin's Interviews of Jim Leitner on The Market Huddle: Check out this episode's blog post--Guest Plugs:Kevin's The Macro Tourist SubstackKevin's X: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirKevin's email: kevin@themacrotourist.com--Pinecone Macro Research aims to provide unique, well researched analysis of the global markets using a macro framework. Find us here: www.pineconemacro.com Follow us and the show on Twitter: @PineconeMacro &

Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show. Kevin discusses the concept of "rolling mini bubbles" in markets. These bubbles form when an asset class or theme gains popularity among hedge funds, causing price increases based on perceived momentum rather than underlying value. Muir cited Tesla and the electric vehicle (EV) market as examples, noting that while these bubbles can inflate quickly, they also deflate rapidly. Muir suggested that certain stocks, particularly those related to EVs and artificial intelligence, are currently experiencing a bubble. He advised investors to focus on buying undervalued stocks and mentioned Japan as an area of potential value due to recent government actions benefiting the stock market. Muir also discussed the concept of reflexivity, introduced by George Soros, which suggests that investor actions can influence and be influenced by market performance, leading to more frequent and violent bubbles. The interview touches on Canada's economy, with Muir arguing that it is not as strong as the US despite similar fiscal stimulus during COVID-19. He pointed out that America spent more overall, experienced a larger housing bubble burst in 2008 leading to deleveraging, and currently has lower consumer debt compared to Canada. These factors make Canada more sensitive to higher interest rates, which Muir predicts will negatively impact the Canadian economy. Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact. Muir also discussed monetary stimulus, stating that it is less effective in changing behavior than fiscal stimulus. He suggested that recent inflation trends are partly due to a shift towards domestic production and increased labor bargaining power. Despite this, Muir noted that life may not necessarily become worse for the middle class, as higher wages and job security could offset inflation's impact. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:33 - Rolling Mini Bubbles4:18 - Chip Manufacturing8:03 - Demand & Rising Price9:52 - Bubbles & Risky Trades11:12 - Japanese Value Stocks16:04 - Monetary & Fiscal Stimulus25:40 - Spending Canada Vs. U.S.30:40 - Fiscal Dominance Era38:23 - Fiscal Spending & Inflation43:52 - Wags, Inflation & Gold51:15 - Eastern Gold Holdings54:04 - The Golden Endgame58:28 - Performance of Miners1:00:00 - Wrap Up Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.com Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes." Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.

Kevin Muir, veteran trader and publisher of The Macro Tourist newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers with his thoughts on the U.S. fiscal deficit, the bond market, and buy-write ETFs. Muir argues that persistently stimulative fiscal policy will keep nominal demand and growth high in the U.S., and that over the next decade, inflation surprises will be consistently to the upside. Muir explains why he is bullish on inflation breakevens and Japanese equities, and shares why he is excited about Harley Bassman's new mortgage ETF. Filmed on January 9, 2024. Public dot com has just launched its new high-yield cash account, offering an industry-leading 5.1% APY. Learn more at https://public.com/forwardguidance. __ Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir's newsletter, The Macro Tourist https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ __ Use code FG10 to get 10% off Blockworks' Digital Asset Summit in March: https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2024-london __ Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:48) U.S. Fiscal Deficits Are Fueling A Boom (08:54) Are Higher Interest Rates Actually Stimulative To The Economy? (10:29) Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) (15:11) Thought Experiment With Bank of Japan (20:53) Why Kevin Likes The Japanese Stock Market (24:48) Bond Market and Fed Policy (33:24) Rates Market Is Overzealous In Pricing In Fed Cuts (34:10) Floor vs. Corridor System (42:08) Kevin's 2024 Economic Outlook (51:14) Using Options To Identify True Market-Assigned Probabilities In The STIR Market (57:14) Kevin's Favorite Trade: Long Inflation Breakevens (01:07:36) Interest Rate Vol Is Cheap (And Harley Bassman's New Mortgage ETF) (01:11:04) Kevin's Thoughts On Buy-Write ETFs __ Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

We're all aware of how the pandemic threw the economy and financial markets into unprecedented disarray. And for the past two years, investors have eagerly awaited them to return back to a state of normalcy. But has "normal" changed vs the pre-COVID days? How much of the old playbook no longer works well, if at all, in today's world? For answers, we're fortunate to speak today with market veteran Kevin Muir, founder and editor of The Macro Tourist, the highly-acclaimed newsletter that currently ranks as the #12th largest financial Substack in the world. Kevin sees the impact of the ongoing fiscal stimulus as being much more impactful than investors currently understand. In terms of spending into the economy, he thinks the fiscal flood has just begun. Follow Kevin at https://themacrotourist.com/ Or on X/Twitter at @kevinmuir TIME IS RUNNING OUT! SUBSCRIBE to Adam's new Substack at https://adamtaggart.substack.com/ to get his Adam's Notes for all the recent experts who have appeared on this channel. But do so before the price increases on Jan 1st 2024! #recession #inflation #fiscalspending

Kevin Muir, founder of the MacroTourist newsletter, joins guest host Victor Adair to explain why he's getting back into the bond market after the disastrous losses of the past 18 months. Drew Zimmerman on why his company has transitioned to the uranium space, and the great Greg Weldon on his latest trades, including one he shared at the last World Outlook Financial Conference that is up 78.3% to date.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist newsletter, sees a future with much higher than average, volatile inflation. Alongside Tony Greer of TG Macro and The Morning Navigator, Kevin explores how this threatens the long-standing negative correlation between stocks and bonds and how this profoundly impacts portfolio construction. Kevin Muir kindly shared 5 of his paywalled articles exclusively for RV members. Find them here: https://tinyurl.com/msnhewp9 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This should have been Part 1 of MH+ VWAP with Morris Sachs but here we are! Kevin Muir is joined by Morris Sachs for another VWAP session *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Kevin Muir of the themacrotourist.com flashes danger for interest rates and the bond market. Find out why this drama isn't over.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Macro Tourist himself, Kevin Muir, flashes danger for interest rates and the bond market. Find out why this drama isn't over yet. Ozzie talks presales with Victor Adair in this week's Hot Properties with Ozzie Jurock, and we pull from the archives to bring you a terrific Quote and Goofy Award from last December's Year End Special.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This week, Kevin Muir flies solo and welcomes Massif Capital founder Will Thomson to the show. They have a wide ranging discussion about ESG political constraints and the problems and opportunities that arise from the transition of our economy into one less dependent on fossil fuels, and more reliant on renewables. Will shares his top picks and you don’t want to miss the end. Let’s just say this episode is not just lesson for investing, but a lesson for whole life. *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com Visit our merch store!!! https://www.themarkethuddlemerch.com/ To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

In December 2021, Kevin Muir, veteran trader and author of The Macro Tourist, came on Forward Guidance and made a series of bold predictions all of which came true. Now, with a red carpet rolled out for him, Kevin returns to Forward Guidance to share his predictions for 2023. Kevin argues that U.S. stocks will underperform foreign equities, that 2023 will be far more “boring” than investors expect, and that deep trouble is brewing in private markets (venture capital, private equity, and private debt). Kevin also contends that the economy might fare better than many anticipate, and that bank stocks will do well. Filmed the afternoon of January 6th, 2023. -- Follow Kevin Muir on Twitter https://twitter.com/kevinmuir Kevin Muir's newsletter, The Macro Tourist, can be found here: https://themacrotourist.com/ Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://rb.gy/uesguv Follow Forward Guidance on Twitter https://rb.gy/cy0dki Follow Blockworks on Twitter https://rb.gy/igyzsj Kevin's interview on Forward Guidance in 2021: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gJkEokqqaKM&t=400s -- This episode is sponsored by Curve. Curve is unlike any other credit card. It gives you the power to connect multiple credit and debit cards into one, convert your cashback into crypto rewards, Go Back in Time ®, create Smart Rules, and more. Apply now through https://link.curve.com/forward_guidance, you'll earn $20 in Curve Cash after your first transaction. So sign up today! Terms and conditions apply. -- Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://rb.gy/5weeyw Market commentary, charts, degen trade ideas, governance updates, token performance, can't-miss-tweets and more. Subscribe to the Blockworks Research “Daily Debrief” Newsletter: https://rb.gy/feusos -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:27) The Fed (05:43) When Will Recession Come (If At All)? (13:32) 2023 Will Be More Boring Than People Expect (18:09) The Bond Market Pain Might Continue (25:01) Where Is The Terminal Rate? (29:25) Curve Ad (30:26) The Era of U.S. Equity Outperformance Is Over (47:42) There Will Be Trouble In Private Markets (01:00:54) The Tide Is Out, Who Will Be Left Swimming Naked? (01:08:06) The Banks Will Do Fine (01:13:57) Outlook on Crypto -- Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

Mike's shocked that our elites have the chutzpah to put on another COP climate fest. You'll love the interview with the MacroTourist himself, Kevin Muir. Victor Adair talks the news out of China that supercharged commodities, and a celebrity alert—don't miss the goofy.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Believe it or not, one can be bullish and bearish at the same time.Check The Lead-Lag Report on your favorite social networks.Twitter: https://twitter.com/leadlagreportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/theleadlagreportFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/leadlagreportInstagram: https://instagram.com/leadlagreport      Sign up for The Lead-Lag Report at www.leadlagreport.com and use promo code PODCAST30 for 2 weeks free and 30% off.      Nothing on this channel should be considered as personalized financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.      The content in this program is for informational purposes only. You should not construe any information or other material as investment, financial, tax, or other advice. The views expressed by the participants are solely their own. A participant may have taken or recommended any investment position discussed, but may close such position or alter its recommendation at any time without notice. Nothing contained in this program constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Please consult your own investment or financial advisor for advice related to all investment decisions.See disclosures for The Lead-Lag Report here: The Lead-Lag Report (leadlagreport.com) The Personal Finance PodcastSubscribe now and Master Your Money in Less than 30 Minutes Per Week! Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Being an EngineerIndustry knowledge & best practices that will accelerate your engineering learning curve.Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify Podcasting Power HourOne Hour of Podcasting Q&A with Jeff Townsend, aka The Podcast Father, Greg founder of...Listen on: Apple Podcasts Spotify

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Rob Arnott to the show to discuss value versus growth stocks, the yield curve and whether it's predicting or causes recessions, and why Rob thinks inflation will stay persistently high. Then Brent from SpotGamma is here to talk OPEX. Visit Research Affiliates: https://www.researchaffiliates.com Download Brent's Charts 📈📉https://bit.ly/3L13IFL ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

Tom Gimbel, CEO at LaSalle Network, joins the show to discuss labor and hiring on jobs day. John Gulnac, Chief Research Officer at Adecco, joins the show to forecast hiring and talk about recruitment for companies. Kate Duchene, CEO of RGP, joins the show to talk about inflation adding heightened pressure on businesses amidst the tight labor market. Kevin Muir, Prop Trader at Windor Capital and author of the MacroTourist newsletter and Bloomberg Opinion, joins the show to discuss his recent Opinion column on why we shouldn't fear quantitative tightening. Rajesh Jejurikar, Executive Director, Auto & Farm Sectors, at Mahindra Group, joins the show to discuss the company's electric vehicle development, EV technology, and outlook for the market. Hosted by Paul Sweeney and Matt Miller.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tom welcomes back private trader and newsletter publisher Kevin Muir of "The Macro Tourist" to the show. Investors seem to be having problems understanding the current economy and inflation. Those in charge are arguing that this past month had no inflation. The reality is that month over month figures may be indicating that inflation has peaked. This may cause the Fed may to be less hawkish than most investors are expecting. Kevin argues that bond markets are assessing the economy and the possibility of a recession differently than stocks. Kevin cautions against selling stocks at this point. Over the long-term, stock markets should reflect the economy, but over shorter periods they can get ahead of themselves. Kevin is more of a bull on the real economy because of our past monetary policy. We've forgotten that fiscal policy can provide some benefits to the economy. Inflation can't be fixed by spending more on fiscal policies. He expects inflation to continue for at least a decade, and this will be a big factor that investors will want to consider. He's more concerned with bonds than the stock market. Should the Fed decide they don't need to reduce growth, then we could see a huge shift away from bonds. We could have a 1987 style setup with bonds triggering a crash. Bonds aren't providing the safety hedge that they did historically. The monetary environment is shifting rapidly, and investors may be overlooking this looming issue. Kevin contrasts the differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets. Canada appears to be contracting, but the United States could see higher prices. He believes the only way the Fed is cutting over the next year is if something critical breaks. Gold has a role to play as a way of mitigating risk and hedging low real rates. Gold has suffered for the last few months because of Fed policy on rates and the dollar's rise. Lastly, he outlines why this coming inflationary decade may be an opportunity for carefully positioned investors. Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:34 - Markets & CPI2:08 - A Turning Point?6:24 - Stocks & Growth9:36 - Bearish Sentiment12:50 - Pandora's Box16:25 - Stimulus & Recovery18:24 - More Bond Concerns25:20 - Counterpoints30:04 - Housing Bubbles?32:52 - Tech Equities Sell-Off35:08 - Crypto Thoughts37:00 - Fed Objectives41:55 - Supply Chains45:37 - Inflationary Opportunity?51:54 - Golds Role & Doom59:06 - Wrap Up Talking Points From This Episode Inflation outlook and the market's expectation of a recession.Why bond markets are carrying considerable risk.Differences between the Canadian and U.S. housing markets.Golds role of mitigating risk, and it's ability to hedge rates. Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/kevinmuirWebsite: https://themacrotourist.comSubstack: https://posts.themacrotourist.comPodcast: https://markethuddle.com/Email for Sample Letters: kevin@themacrotourist.com Kevin Muir started as an institutional equity derivative trader for a big Canadian bank in the 1990s. In 2000, Kevin decided that bank-life wasn't for him, so he traded his own account for the next two decades. Along the way, he started writing the MacroTourist newsletter, which he describes as an "almost daily" letter about the markets that still manages to have fun. The MacroTourist newsletter attempts to bring a unique take on a variety of different financial topics. Kevin's tagline is, "All I Bring to the Party is 25 Years of Mistakes." Kevin Muir is a CFA and a graduate of the University of Toronto economics program.

Mike talks about the character flaw that's producing unfathomably stupid political decisions. All star analyst, Kevin Muir, the MacroTourist, called the stock decline but will surprise you with what he sees coming next. Dr Brian Day on The B.C. Court of Appeal's decision that says yes, patients are suffering, even dying, waiting for treatment but they aren't as important as the "system."  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SUMMARY: The CPI report from June was awful because not only was it worse than expected but it was broad-based which means there is no one category to blame, Greg Ip writes that are a lot of optimistic thoughts about inflation that are mostly wrong, and Kevin Muir writes about the fiscal consequences of this monetary problem...Sources:Inflation Rate Hits 9.1% in JuneGREG IP: Beware Wishful Thinking About Inflation and Recession (WSJ)KEVIN MUIR: The Cost of Taming Inflation Will Be Exorbitant (Bloomberg)

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Brent Kochuba from SpotGamma to the show to talk about the chunky option expiration that's coming up and be sure to stick around because Brent will even share the single stock idea that piqued Kevin's interest! Download Brent's Charts 📈📉 https://bit.ly/3NP7geo ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back Jim Leitner to the show to discuss the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve, what he's trading to express that view, and what that means for other risk markets. ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and this week's guest host Kevin Muir welcome Abaxx Technologies CEO Josh Crumb to the show to take a deep dive on the future of decentralized finance.  https://bit.ly/3Firk5K   Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials

Jester Educational Theater has been performing high-energy musicals for young people since 2012. On this episode of The Non-Profit Happy Hour, we speak with founder, ED, and long-time teacher Kevin Muir.

This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Chesapeake Capital founder, Jerry Parker. They talk about answering the Richard Dennis turtle ad, why he believes in Trend Following plus nothing, and finally, how to adapt that strategy to fantasy hockey. ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com To receive our emails with the charts and links each week, please register at: https://markethuddle.com/

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back to the show, Jimmy Jude. After a terrific March COVID crisis BUY THE MARKET call two years ago, he is back to give us an update on his thinking in this challenging market environment. Folks, this is one episode you don't want to miss! ⭐️Visit our merch store!!! 👉https://www.markethuddlemerch.com/ ⭐️ *Got questions for Kevin and Patrick? Submit your questions to: 📩nostupidquestions@markethuddle.com

This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Jay Newman to the show. Jay has been a developing markets debt trader for Lehman and Morgan Stanley.  He then spent the next two decades working at Elliott Management, being best known as the hedge fund manager who chases dead beat countries for payment on defaulted bonds.  As for the next stage of his life, Jay has written a fiction book - UNDERMONEY which is part James Bond, part Liars Poker.

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome option guru Kris Sidial, co-CIO of the Ambrus Group to the show to discuss how the market microstructure has changed the opportunities in volatility strategies. And make sure you stick around to hear his prediction about where the stock market might be headed this summer!

This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back Vincent Deluard from Stone X Financial to the show. They have a fascinating discussion about investing in this new inflationary environment, how you should position your portfolio and Vincent even hits us with a Byron Wien surprise that is worthy of his name.  *DISCLAIMER* Download Vincent's Reports

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome ‘Huddle favourite, Lyn Alden back to the show. They have a … Continue ReadingCoiled Spring & Defensive Value (guests: Lyn Alden, Kuppy)

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome  Joseph Wang – the Fed Guy himself to the show.  If … Continue ReadingChasing Commas (guest: Joseph Wang)

This week, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome to the show Alex Gurevich to talk about his new book; The … Continue ReadingThe Trades of March 2020 (guests: Alex Gurevich, Kuppy & Mark Moss)

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back to the show, legendary investor Jim Leitner. They have a … Continue ReadingAlgorithms for Life (guest: Jim Leitner)

MacroVoices Erik Townsend and guest host Kevin Muir welcome 42 Macro founder Darius Dale to the show where he says the reflation trade is making a come-back, but that it will eventually yield to deflation. Then Erik and Kevin discuss Kevin's article published by Bloomberg, titled The Bond Market Refuses to Accept Economic Reality. Link: https://bit.ly/3I3UmX3

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome Wall Street veteran Andy Constan. From his early days at Salomon … Continue ReadingForced Patience (guests: Andy Constan, Paul Schulte)

In this episode, Patrick Ceresna and Kevin Muir welcome back to the show, Chase Taylor from Pinecone Macro. They chat … Continue ReadingHumble Enough To Be A Great Trader (guest: Chase Taylor)

Kevin Muir, author of The Macro Tourist, joins Forward Guidance to make sense of the recent choppiness in stocks, commodities, and crypto. In conversation with Jack Farley, Muir shares: Why he is shorting Bitcoin and buying gold Why the bear market in speculative stocks (what he calls “crap”) will likely continue How secular inflation will accommodate value stocks but threaten growth stocks

[SHOW NOTES]These days it feels like the price of everything -- from housing, cars, gasoline, and even travel -- is skyrocketing. Today's guest, Kevin Muir, makes the argument that the inflation we are seeing around us is not a transient blip that will normalize with the easing of the pandemic, but an enduring force and a new economic reality. Kevin is the author of the MacroTourist Newsletter, with a tongue-in-cheek tagline of "All I Bring to the Party is 25 years of Mistakes."  He is an expert macro thinker and trader and offers many nuggets of wisdom throughout the episode. Key Points in This EpisodeKevin's career evolution from trading at a prestigious investment bank to striking it out on his ownHow it's easier to make money than to keep it, and the importance of remaining humble and constantly learningHis views on market bubbles, and how today's environment compares with previous bubblesThe rise of the retail trader as a formidable market force, and how hedge funds have to now think harder about right-tail riskModern Monetary Theory and its place in the current debateHow the fiscal and monetary response to COVID was different from past cycles and will have different consequencesWhat has changed in the market that will lead to inflation enduring in the 4-5% rangeHow to position portfolios in the new economic regime 

In our legal segment will examine legal and economic issues impacting lenders, landlords and investors, including Fed tapering of QE,  increased federal regulation of crypto currency, including stable coins and the end of mortgage forbearance. Then join Spencer at the Shootout at the Inflation and Deflation Corral. In late July of this year,  he  interviewed Steven Van Metre  a well-known financial advisor,  and in August he interviewed renown economist A. Gary Shilling,   Both are contrarians calling for near term deflation and  bond and mortgage rates to decline to as low as 1% in the near future. In this interview, he will give you excerpts from both interviews and then will present his interview with Kevin Muir a well-known market trader and an inflationist, to get the other side of the story. Stay tuned as Truth Serum presents the Shootout at the Inflation and Deflation Corral.  Anyone following the stock, bond or RE market should listen carefully because backing the wrong gun fighter, may turn out to be the worst decision you made in 2021 and 2022.   Disclaimer: None of the legal, or financial opinions or information expressed in this podcast may be relied on as legal, or investment advice by Scheer Law Group, LLP. Laws and economic issues  affecting the subjects of this podcast change daily. This mandates specific review of legal or economic issues of interest or concern to you with legal counsel or financial advisors who are experienced in the areas of law or finance discussed in this podcast.   For more on Scheer Law Group, LLP, go to www.scheerlawgroup.com

On this week's show, Dan brings repeat guest Kevin Muir onto the show to talk about some big macroeconomic ideas. Kevin is a former institutional equity derivatives trader with decades of experience who now writes about a wide range of financial topics in his newsletter The MacroTourist. Kevin has a way of explaining difficult macroeconomic ideas in ways that are much easier to grasp. The pair discuss a number of topics including market moves around the upcoming election, the long-term effects of the massive spending during the pandemic, and the validity of Modern Monetary Theory. Kevin even shares some predictions about some of the big five tech stocks that you won't want to miss. Plus, we have a mailbag for the ages this week. One listener writes in questions Dan's objectivity in pointing out issues on both sides. Has Dan been influenced by the Northwest liberal bubble? And another listener asks Dan to make the argument against two of his favorite investments... gold and bitcoin.