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Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, returns to break down gold's continued strength above $3,300 and the growing institutional acceptance of structurally higher prices. "The gold narrative has officially changed - and the big banks are finally catching up." We discuss: Why Wall Street firms like Goldman Sachs are now forecasting $3,700–$4,500 gold What the Commitment of Traders (COT) data reveals about the repositioning of banks and hedge funds Why silver and mining stocks are still lagging despite strong bullion prices The psychological hurdle for long-time gold investors and why this time might be different Whether central bank demand, economic uncertainty, or market fragmentation is truly driving the gold rally Craig also explains why silver may soon “catch up”, but only once momentum kicks in, and unpacks what structural changes in the market could be signaling a longer-term shift in how precious metals behave. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Craig Hemke, Founder and Editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to break down shifts in gold and silver market dynamics. Gold continues to trade around the $3,300 level with extreme daily volatility, yet Commitment of Traders (CoT) data is revealing highly unusual trends. Craig also shares his insights into whether banks and commercials are now positioning themselves for a long-term trend change in the gold market. In this interview, we focus on: Why the traditional COT patterns are reversing - Commercials are buying and covering shorts, while speculators are selling, even during a strong price rally. Implications of falling open interest despite gold's $500 move higher since February, and what that signals for the strength of the current bull market. Balancing ETF inflows - Over $21 billion moved into gold-backed ETFs in Q1 2025, yet Craig explains why this is still a relatively small amount in the broader financial system. Silver's lagging performance - Despite gold's breakout, silver remains stuck, and Craig outlines the key catalysts needed for silver to finally join the rally. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Welcome to The Day Trading Show. This podcast is hosted by Austin Silver and powered by ASFX. We bring you conversations with the best traders of our generation. No rented Lambos or fake Rolexs will be found here. Grab your indulgence and enjoy a discussion focused on making money in markets, trading psychology, and becoming the best trader you can be! This is the best podcast in the world for day traders so make sure you're subscribed!In this power-packed episode, I sit down with Raul Aras aka DiviTrades, a leading figure in Latin America's trading scene and a mentor at Online Trading Campus (OTC) with Bernd Skorupinski. We dive deep into the real truths of trading, multi-asset strategies, prop firm pros and cons, and the mindset it takes to succeed. Raul shares how using the Commitment of Traders (COT) report helped his team predict major market moves, including a Euro drop after institutions turned bullish on the Dollar Index—demonstrating the real power of tracking institutional sentiment.With Colombia's minimum wage around $350/month, buying large prop accounts is often out of reach for many aspiring traders. Raul and his team counter this by offering free prop accounts at events, making professional trading more accessible.Whether you're a beginner or an experienced trader, this episode is packed with actionable insights and real-world examples you don't want to miss.Connect with Raul: https://www.divitradefx.com/ https://www.instagram.com/divitrade.fx/ ----------------------------------------------------Sponsor: Top One FuturesCode: ASFX for 50% Off Link: https://www.asfx.biz/tof ----------------------------------------------------Sponsor: EdgefulGet A 7 Day Free Trial: https://edgeful.com/?via=asfx ----------------------------------------------------
Craig Hemke, founder and editor of TF Metals Report, joins us to break down an increasingly chaotic market environment where gold surges while nearly everything else sells off. With the S&P 500 down over 3%, the U.S. dollar dropping 11% in 100 days, and bond yields rising, Craig unpacks what's driving this unprecedented divergence, and why gold continues to be the major winner. Key themes we cover: Capital flight out of U.S. assets and the breakdown of traditional “safe havens” Why this gold move feels different from any in recent memory Gold stocks lagging despite surging margins at $3,400 gold The potential setup for silver to play catch-up as the gold-silver ratio holds above 100 Whether gold stocks could finally decouple from silver and get re-rated on fundamentals Craig also shares insights on the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, revealing gold's rally is not driven by overcrowded hedge fund positioning, but possibly a commercial short squeeze. We close with a look at what gold miners might do with these outsized margins; M&A, dividends, buybacks, or development spending, and whether generalist capital will finally rotate into the sector. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Craig Hemke, editor of TF Metals Report, to dissect last week's sharp market selloff and its impact on precious metals. While gold and silver had been climbing steadily through Q1 - gold even up nearly 20% - they were not immune to the broad pullback, with both metals reversing sharply alongside global equity markets. Key topics discussed: The market-wide selloff and its ripple effect on gold and silver. Craig explains how liquidity needs and portfolio rebalancing by large funds contributed to the drop - even as fundamentals for precious metals remain intact. Historic parallels and sentiment shifts. Craig outlines similarities to past corrections and why this could be another consolidation before a rebound. Q1 earnings vs. market reaction. Despite record-high margins and profitability for gold producers, investors remain hesitant. Craig shares why generalist interest hasn't stuck - and whether this quarter's blowout numbers will matter. The frustrating disconnect in gold stocks. Gold is up over almost 100% since 2022 lows, yet many miners are still well below 2020 peaks. We explore what's holding them back: lack of growth, muted capital returns, and sector-wide neglect. Commitment of Traders (COT) report insights. Craig gives a preview of what the upcoming COT report may reveal about speculative positioning - why we might be nearing a reset point for the next leg higher. Long-term outlook for miners and strategy moving forward. With major producers sitting on strong balance sheets, M&A could heat up. Craig encourages a stock-picking approach: identify well-positioned juniors near large players rather than broad ETF exposure. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report joins us to discuss the balance between tariffs and the gold price. Craig offers insights into the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, discussing investor positions, especially the large speculators' net long positions. Craig also delves into the complexities of gold's physical movement and delivery on the Comex, potentially influenced by tariffs and broader economic strategies. The conversation expands to include the impacts of potential U.S. tariff policies, the role of central bank demand, and the intriguing topic of gold-backed bonds. Craig further speculates on the broader implications for the gold market amid rising prices, institutional demand, and central bank policies. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
In this episode of The Trader's Journey, Anthony sits down with Jason Shapiro, a featured trader in Jack Schwager's Market Wizards book, to explore the art of contrarian trading. Jason shares how he built long-term success by safely betting against the overcrowded herd, analyzing positioning instead of price, and avoiding the common traps that cause most traders to fail. Jason provides key lessons and countless trading wisdom from decades of experience, how he views the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, the critical role of risk management and discipline.
In this episode of Oil Insights, Martha Dowding hosts and is joined by fellow Research Associate, Mita Chaturvedi to analyse recent movements in oil prices, with a focus on Brent crude, (trading at $75/bbl at time of recording). Martha and Mita discuss three primary factors influencing prices at the moment: the potential for geopolitical flare-ups, investor positioning based on Commitment of Traders (COT) data, and expectations for a soft landing in the US economy. These factors are shaping market sentiment and driving volatility as the week progresses. Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including a possible Israeli strike on Iranian military assets, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments. Martha and Mita discuss the ongoing geopolitical tension - particularly the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which has intensified with missile strikes targeting key locations in Israel. While these incidents have not yet resulted in direct market disruptions, the potential for further escalation, including the extent of the future Israeli strike on Iran, keeps geopolitical risks on the radar for oil traders. The market is experiencing some volatility, with heightened sensitivity to these developments. #Geopolitical #Risk #speculativeshift #Israel #Iran #Military #Oil #oott #oilmarkets
Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report joins us for an in-depth analysis of the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report and fund positioning in the precious metals market. Craig elaborates on the current bullish trends observed in gold and silver, particularly focusing on the significant positions taken by large speculators and hedge funds. We discuss the importance of tracking CoT reports to understand market dynamics and historical trends, which can indicate future price movements. Craig also highlights the broader economic influences, such as global demand from Eastern countries, including China and India, and how these may affect precious metals prices. The discussion extends to the potential risks associated with large speculative positions and the outlook for silver in relation to gold. Additionally, we explore the implications of the upcoming Fed meeting and its potential impact on market momentum. Craig shares his perspectives on whether the anticipated rate cuts have been priced into the market and how these decisions could set the tone for the remainder of the year. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report joins me to recap the Commitment of Traders Report (CoT) for gold and silver and the recent performance of gold and GDX to the markets. We begin with a discussion on the Commitment of Traders (COT) reports as Craig explains the historical trends in hedge fund positions, highlighting their current short position. We also discuss volumes in ETFs, GLD and SLV and their correlation with underlying spot prices. Craig shares insights on why silver is underperforming compared to gold, attributing it to factors such as low speculative short positions and the industrial component affecting demand. Craig then highlights seasonal trends, noting that August has historically been a strong month for gold. We wrap up with a forward-looking perspective on what to expect in the coming months, considering economic indicators, potential rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical factors that could influence the precious metals market. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Listen to Craig Hemke and Dave Kranzler wrapping up the month of July as well as answering the following questions: • What has been happening in the #gold market recently, including significant fluctuations and reasons behind them? • How did the recent sell-offs in gold and #silver markets occur, and who was behind them? • How do technical indicators and the Commitment of Traders #COT report influence the precious metals markets? Did you know you can get the Sprott Money Monthly Wrap Ups, Ask The Expert, special promotions and insightful blog posts sent right to your inbox? Sign Up Here - https://rb.gy/lh3
Craig Hemke, Editor of TF Metals Report joins us to discuss the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report and its impact on gold prices. Craig provides an in-depth analysis of the significant drop in gold prices following the CoT report and shares insights about trends in the silver market. Craig also touches on upcoming economic data, the influence of politics on precious metals, and the potential market behavior in the months to come. Click here to visit Craig's website - TF Metals Report
Jeff Christian, Managing Partner at the CPM Group joins us to focus on the recent volatility in silver. The discussion covers a broad spectrum of factors influencing silver prices, including technical momentum, investor demand, and industrial applications. Jeff explains the erratic price movements observed in 2023, noting that silver prices have fluctuated significantly due to economic uncertainty and investor sentiment. We then look to at the Commitment of Traders (CoT) reports, highlighting the dynamics between commercial and non-commercial entities. Jeff touches upon the concept of market congestion and clarifies the difference between a short squeeze and price congestion. He emphasizes that while technical charts, industrial demand, and investment interest collectively drive silver prices, the fundamental economics of silver supply and demand act as overall limiting factors. Finally, Jeff speculates on short-term price movements driven by open interest in futures contracts and concludes with cautionary advice for investors based on the historical behavior of the silver market. Click here to visit the CPM Group website to keep up to date with Jeff's metals commentary.
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyGoogleTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.Fund traders have established historically large net short positions across the grain complex, particularly in corn and soybeans. According to the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) data from the CFTC, here's a summary of their positions:Corn: Fund traders were net sellers of 34,000 contracts of corn during the week ending January 16. This has resulted in a net short position of 272,000 contracts in corn, which is the largest seen since mid-2020.Soybeans: In the same week, fund traders sold 46,000 contracts of soybeans, leading to a net short position of 79,000 contracts. This is the largest net short position in soybeans since early 2020.SRW Wheat: Fund traders were also net sellers of 15,000 contracts of SRW wheat during the week.These significant net short positions suggest that fund traders are taking bearish positions, anticipating lower prices in the grain complex. This could be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment, supply and demand dynamics, and external factors such as weather conditions. It's important to keep an eye on how these positions evolve, as they can impact price movements in the grain markets.
The world's central banks are like a bunch of kids playing bumper cars. You control your collisions with one pedal, you can take your foot off the gas to slow down, or you can depress it to speed up. Either way, there's going to be a pile up. Now it looks like the Fed has gotten back into the action and who knows when the fun will stop. Perhaps with a massive power failure like Venezuela. In other news that's not so new, the Dems have finally found an economic system they can believe in - socialism/totalitarianism seems to be in vogue yet again. Everything old is eventually new again, like short skits and wide ties. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) is looking up again, at least if you believe in the yellow metal. Speculators have jumped the ship/shark and commercials have gone long. How much longer can it be?
The world's central banks are like a bunch of kids playing bumper cars. You control your collisions with one pedal, you can take your foot off the gas to slow down, or you can depress it to speed up. Either way, there's going to be a pile up. Now it looks like the Fed has gotten back into the action and who knows when the fun will stop. Perhaps with a massive power failure like Venezuela. In other news that's not so new, the Dems have finally found an economic system they can believe in - socialism/totalitarianism seems to be in vogue yet again. Everything old is eventually new again, like short skits and wide ties. But the Commitment of Traders (COT) is looking up again, at least if you believe in the yellow metal. Speculators have jumped the ship/shark and commercials have gone long. How much longer can it be?
The Commitment of Traders (CoT) is worthwhile reading for any shorter- or medium-term trader as it is seen as a one-stop shop to see how much of key assets are being bought or sold on any given week by both hedge funds and commercial institutions that can give you an edge and add invaluable insight to your technical analysis. Interested to find out more about news and analysis of the market, Click here to visit our main website!
Craig Hemke (a.k.a Turd Ferguson) of TF Metals Report joins us on SBTV to demystify the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and share with us how he sees price manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
Craig Hemke (a.k.a Turd Ferguson) of TF Metals Report joins us on SBTV to demystify the Commitments of Traders (COT) reports and share with us how he sees price manipulation in the gold and silver markets.
Ep. 58 - Hakon Fuglaas of K2 Trading on How To Turn from Failure to Success in TradingSponsored by XTB Brokers - Sign Up through TBT to get a dedicated TBT account manager and 15% Spread RebateTo get access to the profitable trading systems mentioned in this podcast (and a special listener price!) visit www.tscmember.co.uk/tbtIn this episode:Hakon Fuglaas of K2 Trading tells us about his disastrous start in trading and how he turned that around to manage over $2.5 million by age 19We reveal the results of our backtesting - all aboard the profit train!Owen has a minor meltdown about trading against the trendTom gets annoyed that someone younger than him is successful - a charming personality trait, I’m sure you will agreeWe send minor shade towards Daenerys Targaryen and risk the biggest backlash this show has ever seen. Podcasting winter is coming. (Sorry, yes, we are nerds.)Trader Interview - Hakon Fuglaas of K2 Trading - How to Turn from Failure to Success in TradingHakon Fuglaas started trading at age 16 and, like many new traders, quickly blew through several accounts. This interview is the story of how he turned it around in record time.Clearly Hakon is the kind of guy who learns from his mistakes and he turned his youthful enthusiasm into a disciplined trading methodology. By the time he was 19 he was managing $2.5m and well on the way to becoming a trading guru.Hakon first came to prominence on eToro, where he became one of their most copied traders with combined equity under management of $2.5m. He now runs K2 Trading where he provides education and mentorship, but he hasn’t stopped refining his own trading system.Simple Trading with a Good Mindset - Easy!He firmly believes that he became successful after he simplified his trading and focussed on his mindset. By removing the fear of loss and by ‘trading in the zone’ through the use of sensible risk management, he could start to see consistent profits.It is amazing how many times the consistently profitable traders we have on the show talk about mindset, risk management and money management as being the keys to long term profit. Hakon Fuglaas of K2 Trading is no different.COT DataNow, having a simple trading system does not mean having an unsophisticated trading system!Hakon piqued Owen’s interest with mention of the Commitment of Traders (COT) data. David Belle mentioned this briefly many moons ago. Although The Blokes looked into it at the time, now, with a bit more experience under their belts, they feel that this could be worth applying to their own trading.In other words, what are the people whose job it is to speculate on the Forex markets doing? And what about the people whose job it is to hedge long term (i.e. large corporations and governmental organisations)?For Hakon’s long term Position Trading he believes he needs to know what the commercial traders are doing, rather than the people trying to make money in the short term. It seems to Hakon (and we agree!) that if you know this, you may have a big leg up with predicting where the market will go next.Do Your Own Research etcAs ever, never trade something just because someone told you to. Owen will be going away and doing some secret squirrel work on the COT data. Feel free to do the same.Watch this space for Owen’s research findings in a few weeks.