Podcast appearances and mentions of Jackson Hole

On this episode of The Steve Gruber Show, Nick Hopwood, Founder and President of Peak Wealth Management, shares his expert insights on the current state of the financial markets and retirement planning strategies. Nick breaks down the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate cuts, why investors shouldn't stay in cash, and how international indexes are hitting all-time highs despite widespread nervousness. He also revisits the trends following Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech, explaining how historical patterns show strong returns for investors over the coming year. Nick also covers tax-efficient strategies for Bene IRAs and why having a solid plan, and trusting it, is more important than ever. Listeners can get a second opinion from Nick and his team of CFPs at peakwm.com/gruber

This week on Regional Roundup from Rocky Mountain Community Radio, we hear a report on efforts to roll back the federal Roadless Rule, which currently prohibits road construction and timber harvesting in undeveloped land within the U.S. National Forest System. We also hear stories about a quinceañera in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, a new app designed to keep residents better informed about wildfires, and a notorious case of wolf cruelty that may be shifting public attitudes toward the animals. And we finish up with an audio postcard from Boulder, Colorado, where birders are hoping to catch a glimpse of a rare tropical anhinga.

On today's episode of the Trust the Plan Podcast, Nick Hopwood, CFP® and Jim Pilat, CFP® of Peak Wealth discuss recent market data with a focus on international stocks. After years of underperformance, many investors began to ignore this area completely, often with no exposure at all. So far in 2025, international equities have emerged as a leader, and Nick and Jim explain why they are feeling bullish. They share a chart showing the renewed strength in foreign markets and talk about the Fed's August meeting in Jackson Hole, where potential rate cuts were mentioned, which could be a positive for international stocks. As always, this podcast is for educational purposes only and is not a recommendation. — Peak Wealth Management is a financial planning and wealth management firm in Plymouth, MI. We believe by providing education and guidance, we inspire our clients to make great decisions so they can Retire With Peace of Mind. Stay Connected With Us: Podbean: findingtruewealth.podbean.com YouTube: / @peakwealthmgmt Apple: rb.gy/1jqp6 (Trust the Plan Podcast) Facebook: Facebook.com/PeakWealthManagement Twitter: Twitter.com/nhopwood1 www.peakwm.com  

The ADHD sorority sisters are back to yap! In this episode we chat about some exciting things going on in our lives and then have a planning session for an upcoming trip! We are headed to Jackson Hole, Wyoming in October and chatting about all our must dos!Follow us on social media @babesonboardpod

The jobs report came out this morning and it was a painful one. The US added only 22,000 new jobs in August, according to the latest BLS report. And unemployment ticked up to 4.3%. What does this mean? Find out in today's First Friday episode! Timestamps: Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising run times. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths. (01:48) ADP vs BLS Jobs Data (04:33) Mortgage Rates & Their Impact on Homebuyers and Sellers (11:30) Fed Chair Jerome Powell's Remarks (12:54) The Fed's Dual Mandate Explained (15:58) The Fed's Changing Approach to Unemployment (18:13) Implications: Rate Cuts on the Table For more information, visit the show notes at https://affordanything.com/episode640 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

How does a shy, artistic boy raised in a family of hard-bitten Jackson Hole cowboys become one of the world's most insightful guides to India's sacred and tribal arts?In this episode of Ojai Talk of the Town, Dr. Stephen Huyler joins me to talk about his extraordinary new book, Transformed by India: A Life — his seventh, but the first to tell his own story. Huyler recounts growing up in Ojai as the son of Thacher School's legendary horseman, "Uncle" Jack Huyler, and the pivotal moment when artist Beatrice Wood recognized his kindred spirit and nudged him toward India. That chance encouragement led to a lifetime of scholarship, deep friendships with Indian artists and tribal communities, and a career bridging East and West.We talk about his early encounters — from leading a beloved horse to its burial pit as a boy, to pedaling a rickshaw across the Indian border on his 20th birthday — and how those experiences forged a life of empathy, resilience, and wonder. Along the way, Huyler shares how India's remarkable generosity reshaped his own sense of self, and why its arts and crafts remain vital expressions of humanity today.Transformed by India has already earned acclaim in India, the UK, and the U.S., with a foreword by the Dalai Lama and an audiobook version narrated by Huyler himself. Join us for a conversation about art, identity, rebellion, and the redemptive power of culture.We did not talk about cooking with scallion oil, William F. Buckley Jr. or the Brewers-Cubs rivalry. For more information, check out Dr. Huyler's website at https://stephenhuyler.com/

We discuss Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole, the housing market, and the implications of President Trump's potential removal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Remember to come back in September – genau das haben die Babos Michael und Endrit gemacht! Die Investmentbabos sind zurück mit einer brandneuen Folge „Babos Sprechen Börse“. Im August ist einiges passiert, während die Babos im Urlaub waren, und normalerweise zeigt der legendäre Babo-Indikator währenddessen eher eine schwache Performance. Dieses Mal war es jedoch anders: Die US-Märkte liefen stark, während der DAX nur leicht unter Wasser war. In dieser Folge wird in gut einer Stunde alles nachgeholt, was im Sommer passiert ist. Es geht um den EU-USA-Deal, das Jackson-Hole-Meeting der US-Notenbank, das Treffen zwischen Putin und Trump, neue Inflationsdaten, die Entwicklungen rund um die Sektorrotation und natürlich ein umfassendes Markt-Update. Eine vollgepackte Folge mit spannenden Themen, die euch wieder auf den neuesten Stand bringt! Viel Spaß mit der Folge und ein wunderschönes Wochenende! Liebe Grüße Michael Duarte & Endrit Cela - Besuchen Sie uns auf unserer Website: https://www.investmentbabo.com - Liken Sie uns auf Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/investmentbabo - Folgen Sie uns auf Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/investmentbabo DISCLAIMER: Der Inhalt dieses Podcasts dient ausschließlich der allgemeinen Information. Diese Informationen können und sollen eine individuelle Beratung durch hierfür qualifizierte Personen nicht ersetzen. Die Informationen in Bezug auf die von der Clartan Associés und AMF Capital AG verwalteten Sondervermögen stellen keine Anlageberatung und keine Kaufempfehlung dar.

This week, the Hivemind team discusses post-Jackson Hole conditions, Bitcoin seasonality, and rate cut expectations. They analyze DATs and liquidity dynamics, MicroStrategy's S&P potential, Solana versus Base adoption, Pokémon TCG crypto experiments, and creator coin streaming models. They also unpack Plasma's TGE, World LibertyFi, stablecoin and institutional chain use cases, and Tom Lee's ETH commentary. Enjoy! -- Start your day with crypto news, analysis and data from Katherine Ross and David Canellis. Subscribe to the Empire newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/empire Follow Ceteris: https://x.com/ceterispar1bus Follow Jason: https://x.com/3xliquidated Follow Yan: https://x.com/YanLiberman Follow LTR: https://x.com/0xLTR Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- Subscribe on YouTube: https://bit.ly/4jYEkBx Subscribe on Apple: https://bit.ly/3ECSmJ3 Subscribe on Spotify: https://bit.ly/4hzy9lH Get top market insights and the latest in crypto news. Subscribe to Blockworks Daily Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (02:25) Market Outlook (09:53) The State of DATs (17:07) Streaming & Creator Coins (36:28) Plasma's TGE & World LibertyFi (39:51) Stablecoins & the Tempo Announcement (48:48) Tom Lee's ETH Saga —-- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, the Hivemind team, and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

After a year of projecting confidence in America's "strong" and "resilient" economy, at his recent Jackson Hole appearance, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suddenly changed his tune.He expressed concern about the deteriorating labor market, saying the situation may warrant a resumption of monetary easing notwithstanding the potential inflationary risks of tariffs.This comes at a time when stocks are at nosebleed valuations levels, with the general public more exposed to them than at any time since the 2000 and 2007 bubble peaks.Are investors sleepwalking into an oncoming painful market correction here?To find out, we have the good fortune to welcome Danielle Park back to the program. Danielle is president and portfolio manager for Venable Park Investment Counsel, Inc, where she manages millions for some of Canada's wealthiest families. She's also proprietor of the daily financial website JugglingDynamite.comWORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com#marketcorrection #housingmarket #bearmarket _____________________________________________ Thoughtful Money LLC is a Registered Investment Advisor Promoter.We produce educational content geared for the individual investor. It's important to note that this content is NOT investment advice, individual or otherwise, nor should be construed as such.We recommend that most investors, especially if inexperienced, should consider benefiting from the direction and guidance of a qualified financial advisor registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or state securities regulators who can develop & implement a personalized financial plan based on a customer's unique goals, needs & risk tolerance.IMPORTANT NOTE: There are risks associated with investing in securities.Investing in stocks, bonds, exchange traded funds, mutual funds, money market funds, and other types of securities involve risk of loss. Loss of principal is possible. Some high risk investments may use leverage, which will accentuate gains & losses. Foreign investing involves special risks, including a greater volatility and political, economic and currency risks and differences in accounting methods.A security's or a firm's past investment performance is not a guarantee or predictor of future investment performance.Thoughtful Money and the Thoughtful Money logo are trademarks of Thoughtful Money LLC.Copyright © 2025 Thoughtful Money LLC. All rights reserved.

In this episode of Lead-Lag Live, I sit down with David Busch, CFA and Co-Chief Investment Officer at Trajan Wealth, to cut through the noise after Powell's Jackson Hole speech and the latest inflation data.With CPI softening, PPI still hot, and Fed policy hanging in the balance, David explains how investors should think about rates, risk, and portfolio allocation as volatility looms into the fall.In this episode:– How Powell's “data dependent” tone shapes the Fed's path– Why CPI vs PPI is creating mixed signals for inflation– The growth vs value dilemma in equity positioning– Credit and consumer data showing cracks beneath the surface– Why bonds offer a rare generational opportunity todayLead-Lag Live brings you inside conversations with the financial thinkers who shape markets. Subscribe for interviews that go deeper than the noise.#LeadLagLive #Fed #Inflation #Rates #Markets #BondsStart your adventure with TableTalk Friday: A D&D Podcast at the link below or wherever you get your podcasts!Youtube: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLgB6B-mAeWlPM9KzGJ2O4cU0-m5lO0lkr&si=W_-jLsiREjyAIgEsSpotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/75YJ921WGQqUtwxRT71UQB?si=4R6kaAYOTtO2V Support the show

Fed Chair Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole underscored the central bank's new focus on managing downside growth risks. Michael Zezas, our Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy, talks about how that shift could impact markets heading into 2026. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezas, Global Head of Fixed Income Research and Public Policy Strategy.Today: What a subtle shift in the Fed's reaction function could mean for markets into year-end.It's Wednesday, September 3rd at 11am in New York.Last week, our U.S. economics team flagged a subtle but important shift in U.S. monetary policy. Chair Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole underscored that the Fed looks more focused on managing downside growth risks and, consequently, a bit more tolerant on inflation.As you heard Michael Gapen and Matthew Hornbach discuss last week – our colleagues expect this brings forward another Fed cut into September, kicking off a quarterly pace of 25 basis-point moves. But while this is a meaningful change in the timing of Fed rate cuts, this path would only result in slightly lower policy rates than those implied by the futures market, a proxy for the consensus of investors.So what does it mean for our views across asset classes? In short, our central case is for mostly positive returns across fixed income and equities into year-end. But the Fed's increased tolerance for inflation is a new wrinkle that means investors are likely to experience more volatility along the way.Consider U.S. government bonds. A slower economy and falling policy rates argue for lower Treasury yields. But if investors grow more convinced that the Fed will tolerate firmer inflation, the curve could steepen further, with the risk of longer maturity yields falling less, or potentially even rising.Or consider corporate bonds. Our economic growth view is “slower but still expanding,” which generally bodes well for corporate balance sheets and, thus, the pricing of credit risk. That combined with lower front-end rates suggests a solid total return outlook for corporate credit, keeping us constructive on the asset class. But of course, if long end yields are moving higher, it would certainly cut against overall returns potential.Finally, consider the stock market. The base case is still constructive into year-end as U.S. earnings hold firm, and recent tax cuts should further help corporate cash flows. However, if long bonds sell off, this could put the rally at risk – at least temporarily, as my colleague Mike Wilson has highlighted; given that higher long-end yields are a challenge to the valuation of growth stocks.The risk? A repeat of the early-April dynamic where a long-end sell-off pressures valuations.Could we count on a shift in monetary policy to curb these risks? Or another public policy shift such as easing tariffs or Treasury adjusting its bond issuance plans? Possibly. But investors should understand this would be a reaction to market conditions, not a proactive or preventative shift. So bottom line, we still see many core markets set up to perform well, but the sailing should be less smooth than it has been in recent months.Thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review and tell your friends about the podcast. We want everyone to listen.

It was our honor to welcome His Excellency Mohamed Al Hammadi, Managing Director and CEO of the Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (ENEC) and Chairman of the World Nuclear Association (WNA), along with Dr. Sama Bilbao y León, Director General of the WNA. H.E. Al Hammadi has served as CEO since 2008 and has led  ENEC in successfully delivering the UAE Peaceful Nuclear Energy Program, focusing on the implementation of the highest national regulations and international standards of safety, security, quality, transparency and non-proliferation in civil nuclear energy. Prior to joining ENEC, Al Hammadi was General Manager of the UAE Federal Electricity and Water Authority and has over two decades of experience in the power transmission utility sector. Dr. Bilbao y León became Director General of the WNA in 2020 and has had an extensive career in nuclear, with over 20 years of experience in nuclear engineering and energy policy, serving in industry, academia, and international organizations. We were thrilled to host Al Hammadi and Dr. Bilbao y León ahead of this week's 50th Annual World Nuclear Symposium in London (agenda linked here) and to hear their perspectives on the UAE's nuclear success story and the broader global nuclear energy outlook. In our conversation, we explore the UAE's Barakah Nuclear Power Plant project and its record-setting progress as a global example for new nuclear programs, trends in rising power needs from hyperscalers and opportunities for nuclear energy to provide reliable baseload electricity for data centers and AI infrastructure, and the growing political, public, and financial acceptance of nuclear energy. We discuss the geopolitical and economic impacts of nuclear development, including national energy security, economic diversification, and industrial competitiveness, the UAE's willingness to share expertise in project management, legal frameworks, and contracting models, and the growing interest in nuclear from Southeast Asian nations, Central Asia, and Africa. Dr. Bilbao y León previews the upcoming World Nuclear Symposium, designed as an action-oriented, working conference with key themes including making nuclear projects bankable and advancing financing frameworks, and featuring attendees from governments, investors, hyperscalers, manufacturers, and legal and financial sectors. We cover lessons learned from the UAE's Barakah Plant, including the benefits of building multiple units, standardizing processes, and investing in talent and supply chains, the need for manufacturing capacity, skilled labor, and legal and financial expertise to enable large-scale nuclear deployment, and the advantages of global nuclear partnerships. Al Hammadi shares insights on the evolution of the UAE's nuclear vision, the role of rigorous planning and standardization in driving efficiency gains, the balancing of government and private capital that enabled Barakah's on-time and on-budget delivery, and strategies for applying the UAE's expertise, frameworks, and contracting models to help other regions meet surging energy demand. We also cover the critical importance of rebuilding talent in energy infrastructure, Europe's shift from decarbonization at any cost to balancing affordability and energy security, nuclear as a national security and grid resilience tool, the need for global collaboration to accelerate nuclear deployment, and the importance of advocacy, education, and encouraging nuclear adoption and awareness. It was a fascinating discussion and we want to sincerely thank Al Hammadi and Dr. Bilbao y León for joining us. Mike Bradley opened the show by noting that two weeks ago, markets were trading sideways in “anticipation” of Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech and subsequently rallied to previous highs after Chairman Powell surprised markets with a modestly dovish tone. He observed that last week, markets were trading

In the Macro MATTers podcast, Matthew Luzzetti (Chief US Economist) and Matthew Raskin (Head of US Rates Research) discuss recent events moving markets. In this episode, they discuss Chair Powell's speech at Jackson Hole and recent changes to our Fed view. In addition, they discuss what upcoming changes on the Fed Board could mean for monetary policy.

The housing market just dropped a week of headlines too big to ignore: NAR vs. Mauricio Umansky: A new legal filing takes aim at the PLS platform. Glenn Kelman: Why Redfin's CEO is still betting on W-2 agents despite layoffs. Mortgage Rates: Down to 6.52% after Powell's Jackson Hole speech, the lowest in 10 months. Market Trends: Pending sales tick up, but cancellations hit record highs. Buyers are retreating — and now sellers are too. Regional Shifts: Vacation towns stall, Las Vegas inventory spikes 31%, and San Francisco becomes the only major metro where housing costs have “returned to normal.” Affordability Crisis: Millennials and Gen Z slash restaurant spending, even skip meals, just to pay rent. Industry Buzz: Is it finally time to retire the old “Date the Rate, Marry the House” slogan?

In this episode of the Wild Things & Wild Places podcast, hosts Joy Faigl, Janet Crofts, and Chris Steffen sit down with Kerry Schultz, Program Director of the Green River Valley Jackson Hole Land Trust. Kerry breaks down the concept of conservation easements, which are legal agreements between private landowners and a qualified entity such as a land trust to permanently protect the land from development. She explains how these agreements play a vital role in conservation, particularly on private lands that are essential for wildlife habitats and migration corridors. The conversation dives into examples of easements in Wyoming, the process and challenges of putting them in place, and the financial side of things, including funding sources and potential tax benefits for landowners. Kerry and the hosts also highlight how conservation easements not only safeguard landscapes but also provide lasting benefits to ecosystems and communities alike. You won't believe how much time will pass just listening to this conversation on conservation easements — it's that engaging!  The episode wraps up with some personal hunting plans and a look ahead at upcoming Muley Fanatic Foundation events, tying together the importance of conservation with the culture and lifestyle of those who cherish the outdoors. 

Our Co-Heads of Securitized Products Research Jay Bacow and James Egan explain why the macro backdrop could be changing in favor of agency mortgages after the Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Jay Bacow: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Jay Bacow, Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. James Egan: And I'm Jim Egan, the other Co-Head of Securitized Products Research at Morgan Stanley. Jay Bacow: Today we're here to talk about why mortgages offer value after Jackson Hole. It's Tuesday, September 2nd at 2pm in New York. James Egan: So, Jay, let's start with the big picture after Jackson Hole, the Fed seems like it's leaning towards cutting rates in a steady, almost programmatic fashion. And in prior episodes of Thoughts on the Market, you've heard different strategists at Morgan Stanley talk about the potential implications there.But for mortgages, what does this mean? Jay Bacow: Well, it takes a lot of the uncertainty out of the market, and that's a big deal. One of the worst-case scenario[s] for agency mortgages – that the investors are buying not mortgages that homeowners have – would've been the Fed staying on hold for much longer than expected. With that risk receding, the backdrop for investors owning agency mortgages feels a lot more supportive. And when we look at high quality assets, we think mortgages look like the cheapest option. Jim, you mentioned some of the previous strategists that come on Thoughts on the Market. Our Global Head of Corporate Credit Strategy, Andrew Sheets had highlighted recently how credit spreads are trading at basically the tights of the past 20 years. Mortgages are basically at the average level of the past 20 years. It seems attractive to us. James Egan: And that relative value really does matter. Investors are looking for places to earn yield without taking on too much credit risk. Mortgages, particularly agency mortgages with government guarantee there, they offer that balance. Jay Bacow: Right. And it's not just that balance, but when we think about what goes into the asset pricing, the supply and demand picture makes a big difference. And that we think is changing. One of the reasons that mortgages have underperformed corporate credit is that when you look at the composition of the buyers, the two largest holders of mortgages are the Fed and domestic banks. The Fed's obviously going to continue to run their portfolio down, but domestic banks have also been on the sidelines. And that's meant that money managers, and to a lesser extent overseas, have had to be the largest buyers. But we think that could change. James Egan: Right, with more clarity on Fed policy, banks in particular may get more comfortable adding mortgages to their balance sheets, though the exact timing depends on regulatory developments. REITs might also find this more compelling? Jay Bacow: Right. If the Fed's cutting rates, the front end is going to be lower, and that's going to mean that the incentive to move out of cash should be higher, and that's going to help both banks and likely REITs. But then there's also the supply side.Net issuance of conventional mortgage has been negative this year. That's obviously good. And some of the other technicals are improving as well. Vols are trading better, and all of this just contributes to a healthier landscape. James Egan: Right. And another thing that we've talked about when discussing mortgage valuations is the importance of volatility. If you're buying mortgages, you're inherently short rate volatility – and volatility has come down meaningfully since last year, even if it's still above pre-COVID norms. Lower volatility supported for mortgage valuations, especially when paired with a Fed that's cutting rates steadily. Though Jay, some of that already in the price? Jay Bacow: Yeah, look. We didn't say mortgages were cheap. We just said mortgages are trading at the long-term averages. But in an environment where stocks are near the all time high and credits near the tights of the past 20 years, we do see that value. And the Fed cutting rates, as we said, should incentivize investors to move out of cash and into securities. Now, there are risks when valuations and other asset classes are as tight or as high as they are. You could see risk assets broadly underperform and mortgages are a risk asset. So, if credit widens, mortgages would not be immune. James Egan: And timing is important here too, right? Especially we think about banks coming back if they wait for full clarity on Basel III proposals – that could be delayed. On top of that, there's prepayment risk… Jay Bacow: Yeah, if rates rally, then speeds could pick up and investors are going to demand more compensation. But summing it up. Mortgages look wide to alternative asset classes. The demand picture we think is going to improve, and more clarity around the Fed's path is going to be supportive as well. All of that we think makes us feel confident this is an environment that mortgages should do well. It's not about a snap tighter and spread, it's more about getting paid carry in an environment where spreads can grind in over time. But Jim, we like mortgages. It's been a pleasure talking to you. James Egan: Pleasure talking to you too, Jay, and to all of you regularly hearing us out. Thank you for listening to another episode of Thoughts on the Market. Please leave a review or a like wherever you get this podcast and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today. Jay Bacow: Go smash that subscribe button.

We open light... Amex perks, Saks talk, and Chris' infamous “no flip-flops” code—then slam straight into the heavy stuff: a President publicly leaning on the Fed to cut rates and targeting Governor Lisa Cook over mortgage-fraud allegations. Can a President remove a Fed official “for cause”? We unpack the precedent, the legal gray, and why Fed independenceactually matters. Plus, Powell's Jackson Hole comments and how a few words swung rate-cut odds—and markets—fast.➡️ Then we zoom out: what politicized monetary policy means for investors, borrowers, and the election-year economy. Finally, a sharp turn into tech: Apple's puzzling strategy (a thinner iPhone—really?) versus the real arms race—AI. We debate foldables, whether Apple will plug in third-party AI (ChatGPT or Google), and why the next big leap has to be usefulness, not just sleekness. Keywords you'll care about: Trump vs the Fed, Lisa Cook, rate cuts, Jerome Powell, Jackson Hole, Apple, iPhone, AI.

Gold & Silver Rally On Upcoming Fed Cuts Gold and silver rallied on Friday, and then they rallied again in the Far East on Sunday night, and into Monday, and now Tuesday. If you're looking for reasons why, you may want to start with Jerome Powell in the Fed. As the precious metals have been spiking higher ever since Powell's incredulous Jackson Hole speech. To find out more about why, click to watch this morning's video now! - To get access to Vince's research in 'Goldfix Premium' go to: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/ - Get access to Arcadia's Daily Gold and Silver updates here: https://goldandsilverdaily.substack.com/ - To get your very own 'Silver Chopper Ben' statue go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/chopper-ben-landing-page/ - Join our free email list to be notified when a new video comes out: click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - Follow Arcadia Economics on twitter at: https://x.com/ArcadiaEconomic - To get your copy of 'The Big Silver Short' (paperback or audio) go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ - Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 - #silver #silverprice #gold And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD)Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

Headlines around the Fed's Jackson Hole speech always seem dramatic. But how much do these events really matter for your portfolio? In this episode, host Chris Galeski sits down with Chief Investment Officer Meghan Pinchuk to unpack what's behind the headlines, why the market reacts the way it does, and how they approach portfolio management without getting caught up in the noise.Tune in if you're interested in…Why markets swing on Fed comments, even when nothing new is saidThe difference between short-term headlines and long-term fundamentalsHow valuations and uncertainty shape portfolio decisionsThe role of rebalancing and tax strategies in managing client accountsWhy collaboration between advisors and portfolio managers matters for clients

Joseph Wang and Ty J. Young discuss the Fed's next steps and react to Powell's Jackson Hole comments. “Chair Powell has already promised he'll cut rates in September,” Joseph argues, already reflected in market expectations. However, he thinks that the politics around the Fed's independence is more important to pay attention to. Ty reflects on the Fed's dual mandate and also expects a cut, which he expects to be “very, very positive” for the housing market.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Mortgage rates just hit their lowest point of the year — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments from Jackson Hole suggest a potential rate cut on September 17th. What does this mean for the housing market, buyer affordability, and sellers trying to time the market? In this video, we break down: * Powell's key comments and what they really mean
 * Why mortgage rates dropped and how long they may stay low
 * How this affects homebuyers and sellers this fall
 * Market data showing a shifting landscape in jobs, inflation, and demand
 * Why this could be a golden window for real estate action before the end of 2025
 If you're considering buying or selling, this is a must-watch update to help you make informed decisions.

In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Schutte, CIO of Northwestern Mutual, to discuss the current macro landscape and what it means for investors. Brent shares his balanced perspective on the Fed, inflation, tariffs, concentration risk in markets, and why diversification may be more important now than ever. With over 30 years of investing experience, Brent provides valuable lessons from past cycles that help put today's environment in context.The Fed's dual mandate and why both inflation and unemployment risks matterHow tariffs could reshape growth and inflation dynamicsMarket concentration and the dominance of the Magnificent SevenLessons from past cycles (1999 tech bubble, 2007 commodities, Japan in the 1980s)The role of diversification, including small/mid caps, international equities, and commoditiesActive vs. passive investing and how to evaluate managersRecession signals, rolling recessions, and hidden economic weaknessWhy humility and balance are essential in portfolio construction00:00 – Introduction & importance of diversification02:00 – The Fed's mandate and tariffs' impact on growth & inflation07:30 – Reaction to Powell's Jackson Hole speech & Fed independence15:20 – Hidden recession, labor market signals & AI's economic role20:30 – Reliability of recession indicators post-COVID26:00 – Tariffs, uncertainty & risks for investors28:40 – Market concentration and the Magnificent Seven34:00 – Rethinking diversification: 60/40, commodities, and international exposure41:20 – Lessons from past market cycles (Japan, dot-com, China, commodities)45:15 – Passive flows, active management, and evaluating skill vs. luck50:00 – Government stakes in companies (Intel discussion)52:00 – Standard closing questions & final lessons

Tony Zhang looks at banks as regionals rally on Powell's Jackson Hole commentary. “It really comes down to lower interest rates,” he argues, especially for regional banks exposed to real estate. He covers names he likes in the sector, including Truist (TFC), pointing to chart technical and valuation. Tony shares an example options trade on TFC with a bullish bent. He also gives his take on Nvidia (NVDA) after earnings.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Before trading, read the Options Disclosure Document. http://bit.ly/2v9tH6DSubscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Every year the Kansas City Fed hosts the Jackson Hole symposium. All eyes are on the opening speech from Jerome Powell which was widely covered by the news media. To me, the more interesting talks are the invited speakers who give talks on various elements of the economy. The theme this year at Jackson Hole is demographics and the impact on the labor market. So this week we will be doing a mini series summarizing the most noteworthy talks from Jackson Hole this year. The paper we are examining is by Emi Nakamura from Berkeley University. In this paper the author is examing the Taylor Rule named after John Taylor who came up with the observation after six years at the Fed, specifically examining the Alan Greenspan years. Emi Nakamura shows convincingly that the Taylor Rule rarely if ever applies in the real world, except for those six years. -------------**Real Estate Espresso Podcast:** Spotify: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://open.spotify.com/show/3GvtwRmTq4r3es8cbw8jW0?si=c75ea506a6694ef1)   iTunes: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](https://podcasts.apple.com/ca/podcast/the-real-estate-espresso-podcast/id1340482613)   Website: [www.victorjm.com](http://www.victorjm.com)   LinkedIn: [Victor Menasce](http://www.linkedin.com/in/vmenasce)   YouTube: [The Real Estate Espresso Podcast](http://www.youtube.com/@victorjmenasce6734)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/realestateespresso](http://www.facebook.com/realestateespresso)   Email: [podcast@victorjm.com](mailto:podcast@victorjm.com)  **Y Street Capital:** Website: [www.ystreetcapital.com](http://www.ystreetcapital.com)   Facebook: [www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital](https://www.facebook.com/YStreetCapital)   Instagram: [@ystreetcapital](http://www.instagram.com/ystreetcapital)  

Bioptimizers https://Bioptimizers.com/toddEnter promo code TODD to get 15% off your order of Berberine Breakthrough today.Bizable https://GoBizable.comUntie your business exposure from your personal exposure with BiZABLE.  Schedule your FREE consultation at GoBizAble.com today. Angel Studios https://Angel.com/ToddJoin the Angel Guild today and stream Testament, a powerful new series featuring the retelling of the book of Acts. Renue Healthcare https://Renue.Healthcare/ToddRegister today to Join the Renue Healthcare Webinar Thursday September 11th at 11:00 PST.  Visit https://joinstemcelltalks.com or call 602-428-4000.  Bulwark Capital https://KnowYourRiskPodcast.comBe confident in your portfolio with Bulwark! Schedule your free Know Your Risk Portfolio review. Go to KnowYourRiskPodcast.com today. Alan's Soaps https://www.AlansArtisanSoaps.comUse coupon code TODD to save an additional 10% off the bundle price.Bonefrog https://BonefrogCoffee.com/toddThe new GOLDEN AGE is here!  Use code TODD at checkout to receive 10% off your first purchase and 15% on subscriptions.LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE at:The Todd Herman Show - Podcast - Apple PodcastsThe Todd Herman Show | Podcast on SpotifyWATCH and SUBSCRIBE at: Todd Herman - The Todd Herman Show - YouTubeSo, did Jerome Powell blink? He came out and said Trump was right about tariffs. Plus, what happens when the Government owns private companies? I don't like it. Zach Abraham joins...Episode links:What Fed must do now after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole epiphany Powell's comments open door to September rate cuts as Treasury yields tumble #1 - President Trump announces the United States will take a 10% non-voting equity stake in Intel, part of a deal he and Howard Lutnick negotiated with Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan.Bill Gates is back, not with a solution for the planet, but with a blueprint for control. He's assembled a cartel of the world's most powerful corporations—BlackRock, Microsoft, GM, Bank of America—under the green banner of his "Catalyst" fund.

In the second of a two-part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach talk about how Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar could react to the possible Fed rate path.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Yesterday we talked about Michael's reaction to the Jackson Hole meeting last week, and our assessment of the Fed's potential policy pivot. Today my reaction to the price action that followed Chair Powell's speech and what it means for our outlook for the interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar. It's Friday, August 29th at 10am in New York, Michael Gapen: Okay, Matt. Yesterday you were in the driver's seat asking me questions about how Chair Powell's comments at Jackson Hole influenced our views around the outlook for monetary policy. I'd like to turn it back to you, if I may. What did you make of the price action that followed the meeting? Matthew Hornbach: Well, I think it's safe to say that a lot of investors were surprised just as you were by what Chair Powell delivered in his opening remarks. We saw a fairly dramatic decline in short-term interest rates, taking the two-year Treasury yield down quite a bit. And at the same time, we also saw the yield curve steepen, which means that the two-year yield fell much more than the 10-year yield and the 30-year bond yield fell. And I think what investors were thinking with this surprise in mind is just what you mentioned earlier – that perhaps this is a Fed that does have slightly more tolerance for above target inflation. And so, you can imagine a world in which, if the Fed does in fact cut rates, as you're forecasting, or more aggressively than you're forecasting, amidst an environment where inflation continues to run above target. Then you could see that investors would gravitate towards shorter maturity treasuries because the Fed is cutting interest rates and typically shorter-term Treasury yields follow the Fed funds rate up or down. But at the same time reconsider their love of duration and taking duration risk. Because when you move out the yield curve in your investments and you're buying a 10-year bond or a 30-year bond, you are inherently taking the view that the Fed does care about inflation and keeping it low and moving it back to target. And if this Fed still cares about that, but perhaps on the margin slightly less than it did before, then perhaps investors might demand more compensation for owning that duration risk in the long end of the yield curve. Which would then make it more difficult for those long-term yields to fall. And so, I think what we saw on Friday was a pretty classic response to a Federal Reserve speech in this case from the Chair that was much more dovish than investors had anticipated going in. The final thing I'd say in this regard is the following Monday, when we looked at the market price action, there wasn't very much follow through. In other words, the Treasury market didn't continue to rally, yields didn't continue to fall. And I think what that is telling you is that investors are still relatively optimistic about the economy at this point. Investors aren't worried that the Fed knows something that they don't. And so, as a result, we didn't really see much follow through in the U.S. Treasury market on the following Monday. So, I do think that investors are going to be watching the data much like yourself, and the Fed. And if we do end up getting worse data, the Treasury market will likely continue to perform very well. If the data rebounds, as you suggested in one of your alternative scenarios, then perhaps the Treasury rally that we've seen year-to-date will take a pause. Michael Gapen: And if I can follow up and ask you about your views on the trough of any cutting cycle. We have generally been projecting an end to the easing cycle that's below where markets are pricing. So, in general, a deeper cutting cycle. Could some of that – the market viewpoint of greater tolerance for inflation be driving market prices vis-a-vis what we're thinking? Or how do you assess where the market prices, the trough of any cutting cycle, versus what we're thinking at any point in time? Matthew Hornbach: So, once you move beyond the forecastable horizon, which you tell me… Michael Gapen: About three days … Matthew Hornbach: Probably about three days. But, you know, within the next couple of months, let's say. The way that the market would price a central bank's likely policy path, or average policy path, is going to depend on how investors are thinking about the reaction function of the central bank. And so, to the extent that it becomes clear that the central bank, the Fed, is increasingly tolerant of above target inflation in order to ensure that the balance of risks don't become unbalanced, let's say. Then I think you would expect to see that show up in a lower market price for the policy rate at which the Fed eventually stops the easing cycle, which would presumably be lower than what investors might have been thinking earlier. As we kind of make our way from here, closer to that trough policy rate, of course, the data will be in the driver's seat. So, if we saw a scenario in which the economic activity data rebounded, then I would say that the way that the market is pricing the trough policy rate should also rebound. Alternatively, if we are trending towards a much weaker labor market, then of course the market would continue to price lower and lower trough policy rates. Michael Gapen: So, Matt, with our new baseline path for Fed policy with quarterly rate cuts starting in September through the end of 2026, how has your view changed on the likely direction and path for Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar? Matthew Hornbach: So, when we put together our quarterly projections for Treasury yields, of course we link them very closely with your forecast for Fed policy, activity in the U.S. economy, as well as inflation. So, we will likely have to modify slightly the exact way in which we get down to a 4 percent 10-year yield by the end of this year, which is our current forecast, and very likely to remain our forecast going forward. I don't see a need at this point to adjust our year-end forecast for 10-year Treasury yields. When we move into 2026, again here we would also likely make some tweaks to our quarterly path for 10-year Treasury yields. But at this point, I'm not inclined to change the year end target for 2026. Of course, the end of 2026 is a lifetime away it seems from the current moment, given that we're going to have so much to do and deal with in 2026. For example, we're going to have a midterm election towards the end of the year, we will have a new chair of the Federal Reserve, and there's going to be a lot for us to deal with. So, in thinking about where are 10-year yield is going to end 2026, it's not just about the path of the Fed funds rate between now and then. It's also the events that occur, that are much more difficult to forecast than let's say the 10-year Treasury yield itself is – which is also very difficult to forecast. But it's also about by the time we get to the end of 2026, what are investors going to be thinking about 2027? You know, that is really the trick to forecasting. So, at this point, we're not inclined to change the levels to which we think Treasury yields will get to. But we are inclined to tweak the exact quarterly path. Michael Gapen: And the U.S. dollar? Matthew Hornbach: , We have been U.S. Dollar bears since the beginning of the year, and the U.S. dollar has in fact lost about 10 percent of its value relative to its broad set of trading partners. We do think that the dollar will continue to lose value over the course of the next 12 to 18 months. The exact quarterly path, we may have to tweak somewhat because also the dollar is not just about the Fed path. It's also about the path for the ECB, and the path for the Bank of England, and the path for the Bank of Japan, etcetera. But in terms of the big picture? The big picture is that the dollar should de continue to depreciate in our view. And that's what we'll be telling our investors.So, Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. We look forward to bringing you another episode around the time of the September FOMC meeting where we will update our views once again. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Two-year Treasury yields set a new almost-year low, falling below their prior April chaos lows. The yield curve is undergoing a profound reshaping that explains a lot more than Jay Powell's Jackson Hole performance. It also perfectly indicates what long-run interest rates are also doing as well as likely to do moving forward.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Bloomberg Goldman Sachs Says US Yield-Curve Shape Looks Like Zero-Rate Erahttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-06/goldman-sachs-says-us-yield-curve-shape-looks-like-zero-rate-erahttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly signalled at Jackson Hole that a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is likely. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer talks to Julius Baer's Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, about what a resumption of the Fed's rate-cutting cycle would mean for bond markets. They also discuss the current fiscal concerns and the expected impact of tariffs on inflation, both in and outside of the US.(00:32) - Introduction (00:50) - What would the resumption of a rate-cutting cycle by the Fed mean for bond markets? (02:27) - What impact will the fiscal concerns have? (03:37) - What duration is currently appropriate in a bond portfolio? (04:32) - What impact might tariffs have on fixed income markets? (07:05) - Is the Fed's independence really in danger? (08:46) - Should investors consider corporate credit exposure? (09:37) - Would exposure to European corporate bonds also be appropriate? (11:11) - Summary and closing remarks Would you like to support this show? Please leave us a review and star rating on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.

In this week's episode of the Rich Habits Podcast, Robert Croak and Austin Hankwitz walk you through Nvidia's earnings results, Jerome Powell's recent speech in Jackson Hole, and Trump's new tariff on cheap Chinese goods. ---✅ Ready to start investing? Open a brokerage account on ⁠Public.com/richhabits⁠ and get a FREE 1% match on all IRA deposits, transfers, and rollovers!---‼️ Have feedback to share? Please let us a comment on Spotify! We're excited to mold these new weekly episodes to be exactly what our listeners want. ---

The U.S. is stepping deeper into crypto and markets are feeling it. Powell's Jackson Hole speech warned against cutting rates too soon, while Trump's move to oust Fed Governor Lisa Cook sparked a legal fight over Fed independence. At the same time, the Commerce Department is publishing GDP data on-chain through Chainlink, and Google Cloud unveiled a new blockchain (GCUL) for institutions. Banks are lobbying against stablecoins, the U.S. is taking a 10% stake in Intel but not Nvidia, and Bitcoin faces pressure as transaction fees hit their lowest since 2011 and a whale dumped 24,000 BTC, driving the price below $110K.

Michael Reinking, Senior Market Strategist for the NYSE, recaps a busy week following Fed Chair Powell's dovish Jackson Hole remarks, which fueled a market rally and left the door open for a September rate cut. He highlights political drama around Fed independence, the U.S. taking stakes in Intel and MP Materials, and Nvidia's strong earnings that lifted the AI sector. Reinking notes the S&P 500 hitting record highs with solid August gains, while warning that September brings labor data, inflation reports, and Fed policy decisions into sharper focus.

In the first of a two- part episode, our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen and Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach discuss the outcome of the Jackson Hole meeting and the outlook for the U.S. economy and the Fed rate path during the rest of the year. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy.Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist.Matthew Hornbach: Last Friday, the Jackson Hole meeting delivered a big surprise to markets. Both stocks and bonds reacted decisively.Today, the first of a two-part episode. We'll discuss Michael's reaction to Chair Powell's Jackson Hole comments and what they mean for his view on the outlook for monetary policy. Tomorrow, the outlook for interest rate markets and the US dollar. It's Thursday, August 28th at 10am in New York. So, Mike, here we are after Jackson Hole. The mood this year felt a lot more hawkish, or at least patient than what we saw last week. And Chair Powell really caught my attention when he said, “with policy and restrictive territory, the baseline outlook for the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance.” That line has been on my mind ever since. So, let's dig into it. What's your gut reaction?Michael Gapen: Yeah, Matt, it was a surprise to me, and I think I would highlight three aspects of his Jackson Hole comments that were important to me. So, I think what happened here, of course, is the Fed became much more worried about downside risk to the labor market after the July employment report, right? So, at the July FOMC meeting, which came before that report, Powell had said, ‘Well, you know, slow payroll growth is fine as long as the unemployment rate stays low.' And that's very much in line with our view. But sometimes these things are easier said than done. And I think the July employment report told them perhaps there's more weakness in the labor market now than they thought.So, I think the messaging here is about a shift towards risk management mode. Maybe we need to put in a couple policy rate cuts to shore up the labor market. And I think that was the big change and I think that's what drove the overall message in the statement. But there were two other parts of it that I think were interesting, you know. From the economist's point of view, when the chair explicitly writes in a speech that ‘the economy now may warrant adjustments in our policy stance,' right? I mean, that's a big deal. It suggests that the decision has been largely made, and I think anytime the Fed is taking a change of direction, either easing or tightening, they're not just going to do one move. So, they're signaling that they're likely prepared to do a series of moves, and we can debate about what that means. And the third thing that struck me is right before the line that you mentioned he did qualify the need to adjust rates by saying, well, whatever we do, we should, “Proceed cautiously.” So, a year ago, as you recall, the Fed opened up with a big 50 basis point rate cut, which was a surprise. And cut at three successive meetings. So, a hundred basis points of cuts over three meetings, starting with a 50 basis point cut. I think the phraseology ‘proceeds carefully' is a signal to markets that, ‘Hey, don't expect that this time around.' The world's different. This is a risk management discussion. And so, we think, two rate cuts before year end would be most likely. Maybe you get three. But I don't think we should expect a large 50 basis point cut at the September meeting. So those would be my thoughts. Downside risk to the labor market – putting this into words says something important to me. And the ‘proceed cautiously' language I think is something markets also need to take into account.Matthew Hornbach: So how do you translate that into a forecasted path for the Fed? I mean, in terms of your baseline outlook, how many rate cuts are you forecasting this year? And what about in 2026?Michael Gapen: Right. So, we previously; we thought what the Fed was doing was leaning against risks that inflation would be persistent. They moved into that camp because of how fast tariffs were going up and the overall level of the effective tariff rate. So, we thought they would stay on hold for longer and when they move, move more rapidly. What they're saying now in a risk management sense, right; they still think risk to inflation is to the upside, but the unemployment rate is also to the upside. And they're looking at both of those as about equally weighted. So, in a baseline outlook where the Fed's not assuming a recession and neither are we, you get a maybe a dip in growth and a rise in inflation. But growth recovers and inflation comes down next year. In that world, and with the idea that you're proceeding cautiously, they're kind of moving and evaluating, moving and evaluating.So, I think the translation here is: a path of quarterly rate cuts between now and the end of 2026. So, six rate cuts, but moving quarterly, like September and December this year; March, June, September, and December next year; which would take us to a terminal target range of 2.75 to 3. So rather than moving later and more rapidly, you move earlier, but more gradually. That's how we're thinking about it now.Matthew Hornbach: And that's about a 25 basis point upward adjustment to the trough policy rate that you were forecasting previously…Michael Gapen: That's right. So, the prior thought was a Fed that moves later may have to cut more, right? Because you're – by holding policy tighter for longer – you're putting more downward weight on the economy from a cyclical perspective. So, you may end up cutting more to essentially reverse that in 2026. So, by moving earlier, maybe a Fed that moves a little earlier, cuts a little less.Matthew Hornbach: In terms of the alternative outcomes. Obviously, in any given forecast, things can go not as expected. And so, if the path turns out to be something other than what you're forecasting today, what would be some of the more likely outcomes in your mind?Michael Gapen: Yeah, as we like to say in economics, we forecast so we know where we're wrong. So, you're right, the world can evolve very differently. So just a couple thoughts. You know, one, now that we're thinking the Fed does cut in September, what gets them not to cut? You'd need a – I think, a really strong August employment report; something around 225,000 jobs, which would bring the three-month moving average back to around 150, right. That would be a signal that the May-June downdraft was just a post Liberation Day pothole and not trend deterioration in the labor market. So that, you know, would be one potential alternative. Another is – although we've projected quarterly paths in this kind of nice gradual pace of cuts, we could get a repeat of last year where the Fed cuts 50 to 75 basis points by year end but realizes the labor market has not rolled over. And then we get some tariff pass through into inflation. And maybe residual seasonality and inflation in Q1. And then the Fed goes on hold again, then cuts could resume later in the year. And I also think in the backdrop here, when the Fed is saying we are easing in a risk management sense and we're easing maybe earlier than we otherwise would – that suggests the Fed has greater tolerance for inflation. So, understanding how much tolerance this Fed or the next one has for above target inflation, I think could influence how many rate cuts you eventually get in in 2026. So, we could even see a deeper trough through greater inflation tolerance. And finally, of course, we're not out of the woods with respect to recession risk. We could be wrong. Maybe the labor market is trend weakening and we're about to find that out. Growth is slowing. Growth was about 1.3 percent in the first half of the year. Final sales is softer. Of course, in a recession alternative scenario, the Fed's probably cutting much deeper, maybe down to 1 50 to 175 on the funds rate.So, I mean, Matt, you make a good point. There's still many different ways the economy can evolve and many different ways that the Fed's path for policy rates can evolve.Matthew Hornbach: Well, that's a good place to bring this Part 1 episode to an end. Tune in tomorrow, for my reaction to the market price action that followed Chair Powell's speech -- and what it means for our outlook for interest rate markets and the U.S. dollar.Mike, thanks for taking the time to talk.Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Stocks  heading into the fall with Nvidia earnings in the books, and the Fed's Jackson Hole conference in the rearview. So what's the next catalyst that will move markets? Our traders debate what they see in store for stocks. Plus Gap reporting results, with other big names like Dick's, Best Buy, and more delivering quarterly numbers. How the retail space is faring, and the names to watch.Fast Money Disclaimer

Our destination is the hidden fly fishing paradise of Tasmania— that far-flung island at the bottom of the world with beautiful lakes and trout that can top 20 pounds – with industry icon and fly fishing legend, Jack Dennis.  Jack opened one of the most iconic fly shops in America in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  He's produced best-selling books and videos, helped launch Team USA Fly Fishing, and co-founded the Jackson Hole One Fly. He's fished and filmed all over the world and has guided everyone from President Ford and Harrison Ford, to Denny Crum and John Wooden, and half of Hollywood.  Hear wild tales of a 27-pound brown, hot dogs with Indiana Jones, and why Tasmania was his wife's all-time favorite fly fishing trip. With host Steve Haigh Be the first to know about new episodes.  Become a subscriber  Destination Angler on YouTube Destination Angler Podcast:   Website YouTube Instagram & Facebook  @DestinationAnglerPodcast  Please check out our Sponsors: High N Dry Fishing Where science and performance meet.  Check out the full lineup of floatants, line dressings, and sighter waxes at www.highndryfishingproducts.com     Facebook @highndryfishingproducts | Instagram @highndryfishing Got Fishing  Crafting world-class fly-fishing adventures specially designed to your level of experience and budget.    Facebook @GotFishingAdventures | Instagram @GotFishing  TroutRoutes  Podcast listeners can try one month of TroutRoutes PRO for FREE by clicking the link in the episode description. Explore your water with TroutRoutes today.   Get 1 Month Free   Facebook @troutinsights | Instagram @TroutRoutes    Comments & Suggestions:  host, Steve Haigh, email shaigh@DestinationAnglerPodcast.com Available on Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts. Recorded Aug 7, 2025

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe D's are panicking, they cannot lose control over the Fed or worse have the Fed shutdown, which is going to happen. Trump is setting the precedent and he wants the court to make the ruling so there is not question of what authority he has. The Fed is trapped, no inflation, Trump is forcing them into a position that they will not be able to get out of. The [DS] is battling evidence that is coming out against them, the evidence is getting worse and they need to distract from this and keep the news cycle clogged with other stories. Every time news breaks against the [DS]/[D's] some type of event occurs. Trump is now exposing Soros. Soros funds the riots and antifa. Antifa mapping started a long time ago.   Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/TrumpWarRoom/status/1960524710342746224 https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/1960494829236052013 https://twitter.com/RepJasmine/status/1960343560756056539 Lisa Cook committed a crime and nobody is above the law You don't get special privileges based on the color of your skin   NEW: Lisa Cook to File Lawsuit After Trump Fires Her as Federal Reserve Governor….Fed Says It Will Abide by Court Decision Lisa Cook is preparing to file a lawsuit after President Trump fired her as Federal Reserve Governor. President Trump on Monday evening fired Biden-appointed Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook amid mortgage fraud allegations. “Pursuant to my authority under Article II of the Constitution of the United States and the Federal Reserve Act of 1913, as amended, you are hereby removed from your position on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, effective immediately,” President Trump wrote in a letter to Lisa Cook. “I have determined that there is sufficient cause to remove you from your position,” Trump added as he cited housing regulator Bill Pulte's criminal referral on Lisa Cook for mortgage fraud – specifically occupancy fraud.   Source: thegatewaypundit.com What Fed must do now after Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole epiphany Last Friday in Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell finally – and grudgingly – admitted what the Trump team has been saying all along: tariffs don't fuel inflation. At most, tariffs create a one-time adjustment in prices, not the kind of runaway spiral that demands punishing rate hikes. And even that one-time bump may be negligible if, as we have long argued, foreign exporters – not American consumers – shoulder most or all of the burden. The implication is clear: whether the impact is zero or merely a one-time step-up in prices, there is absolutely no justification for the Fed to hide behind "tariff uncertainty" as an excuse for overly restrictive interest-rate policy.   Soure: foxnews.com Political/Rights  https://twitter.com/robbystarbuck/status/1960481691606376666 https://twitter.com/AsraNomani/status/1960407636446175597 https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1960714129783546232  FAILED promises. https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1960729811099308460 Obama Judge Says MS-13 Gang Member Kilmar Abrego Garcia Cannot be Deported Until At Least October 

Bitcoin's post–Jackson Hole rally was short-lived, with prices plunging below $110,000 after a massive whale liquidation sent shockwaves through the market. Today NLW unpacks how 24,000 BTC moved for the first time in six years, the rotation into Ethereum, and the $640 million in liquidations that followed. Plus, what whale selling means for this cycle, how traders are framing the correction, and whether we're nearing a late-stage top—or just another round of growing pains. Brought to you by: Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Consumer fears over jobs increased yet again in August, as did expectations for a recession. Relatedly, two separate sources confirmed housing prices in the US fell yet again in their latest monthly estimates. Related because the one is causing the other; fears over jobs that aren't strictly fears are reducing demand for homes and a whole lot more. Deep down, even Jay Powell knows it.Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jay Powell's August 2025 Jackson Hole speechhttps://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdfConference Board August 2025 consumer confidence https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/Bloomberg Weak US Housing Outlook Sends Australia's Reece Tumblinghttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-08-25/reece-tumbes-lithium-optimism-us-stocks-australia-briefinghttps://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

Jackson HOLY cow what a move.... SOE's get used to it - We are now China. Airline consolidation or murder? Bond yields - Long bond yields up. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - Excitement over a change in tone from Powell (Powell throws the towel?) - Crypto surges - then comes back down - SOE - Get used to that - Bond yields - Long bond up Markets - Hitting all-time highs - Airline consolidation or murder? - NVDA earnings - reports this week - Some crypto really moving Fed Firing - How do we feel about the firing of Fed's Cook? - Allegations, not confirmed - Could this be a play to actually fire Powell? --- Trump now says that this paves the way to him having a majority that soon will push rate lower (after firing Cook) Windless - Shutting down the alt-energy projects - Wind turbines ugly and no good - Shares in wind farm developer Orsted - The U.S. government last week ordered the company to halt construction of an almost completed project. - Late on Friday the U.S.? Bureau of Ocean Energy Management had issued a stop-work order for the Revolution Wind Project off of Rhode Island. According to Orsted, the project is 80% complete and 45 out of 65 wind turbines have been installed Pricing Power - News that Spotify will raise prices as it invests in new features and targets 1 billion users - said the price will rise to 11.99 euros ($14.05) from 10.99 euros in markets including South Asia, the Middle East, Africa, Europe, Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region. - Price increases combined with cost-cutting efforts in recent years helped Spotify achieve its first annual profit last year. Jackson Holy !! - Powell hinted that maybe there would be a change to his thinking - In his final address as Fed chair at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming, economic symposium, Powell hinted at a September interest rate cut but stopped short of committing, striking a careful balance between mounting job-market risks and lingering inflation worries. - In particular, the market was enthused by Mr. Powell's line noting that "with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance," which the market took as an open-mindedness to easing. - The probability of a 25-basis point rate cut at the September FOMC meeting now stands at 83.1%, up from 75.0% yesterday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Jackson - HOLY 2 - Markets reacted strongly in favor of a rate cut - hope - DJIA up 800 - S&P and NASDAQ rallied - Small Caps up close to 4% - USD dove - Yields - slightly lower - Crypto - ETHER rallied hard - ATH ---- Give it a day and Ether and Bitcoin came back down to earth Misunderstanding - Cut rates so houses more affordable? - Long rates moved higher - NVDA - Earnings due Wednesday After the close - Nvidia makes up about 7.5% of the S&P 500. - Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates Zacks Consensus: $1.00 Kiplinger Forecast: $1.01, up 48.5% year-over-year MarketBeat Average: $0.97 (range: $0.92–$1.05) - Revenue Estimates Zacks Consensus: $46.14 billion Kiplinger Forecast: $46.0 billion, a 53.1% increase YoY MarketBeat Range: $44.1–$45.9 billion - Forward-Looking EPS FY 2026: $4.28 (Zacks), $4.12 (MarketBeat) FY 2027: $5.70 (Zacks) SOE - State Owned Enterprises - We had better get use to it - All the anger directed at China for this - as unfair practice - Now, US takes a piece of Intel (10% for $2B ?) - Wait - 10% is $10B value - is that right? Intel Math (MATH?) - The U.S. government acquired a 10% stake in Intel by converting $11.1 billion in previously issued grants and pledges into equity.

John and Anthony Pompliano discuss bitcoin, why the price is going down, what's going on with the federal reserve, where the pressure from the White House is coming, prediction for the next 10 years of the US economy, and will Powell cut interest rates? ===================== Markets are at all-time highs. Public equities are outperforming. And individual investors are driving it all. It's officially the rise of the retail investor. On September 12th in NYC, I'm hosting the Independent Investor Summit — a one-day event built exclusively for self-directed investors. We're bringing together some of the smartest public market investors I know for a full day of macro insights, market predictions, one-on-one fireside chats, and actionable investment ideas from each investor. This is going to be an absolute banger event. Join us if you like markets and think retail is two steps ahead of Wall Street.

Crypto cycles have always topped on a four-year rhythm, but are we heading for a Q4 2025 peak or an extended run into 2026? Michael Nadeau from The DeFi Report joins Ryan to break down the onchain and macro signals shaping this cycle. We cover Powell's dovish pivot at Jackson Hole, global liquidity trends, and why loosening bank lending standards could fuel risk-on markets. Michael explains how whale Bitcoin selling, ETH's breakout, and muted altcoin flows fit into the bigger cycle map. Finally, we dive into portfolio strategy, from core holdings to high-beta “hot sauce” bets, and why holding fewer, higher-conviction assets is the edge most investors miss. Michael Nadeau & The DeFi Report: https://x.com/JustDeauIt https://thedefireport.io https://thedefireport.io/research/how-many-assets-should-you-hold-in-a-crypto-portfolio#closing-thoughts ------

At last week's Jackson Hole gathering, Jerome Powell delivered his final speech as Fed Chair. On the surface it was dry and technical, but markets read it as a dovish signal—and risk assets surged. In today's Breakdown, NLW digs into what Powell actually said, why markets reacted so strongly, and what the revisions to the Fed's monetary policy framework mean for inflation, employment, and the future of central bank independence. Brought to you by: Grayscale offers more than 20 different crypto investment products. Explore the full suite at grayscale.com. Invest in your share of the future. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal. To learn more, visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Grayscale.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ -- ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://www.grayscale.com//?utm_source=blockworks&utm_medium=paid-other&utm_campaign=brand&utm_id=&utm_term=&utm_content=audio-thebreakdown)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoying this content? SUBSCRIBE to the Podcast: https://pod.link/1438693620 Watch on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheBreakdownBW Subscribe to the newsletter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://blockworks.co/newsletter/thebreakdown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Join the discussion: https://discord.gg/VrKRrfKCz8 Follow on Twitter: NLW: https://twitter.com/nlw Breakdown: https://twitter.com/BreakdownBW

Guy & Liz focus on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's recent Jackson Hole speech, indicating a likely rate cut in September due to a cooling labor market. The conversation covers the market's seemingly endless rise, driven by mega cap tech stocks like Nvidia, and the possible risks of steady market declines. They touch on the implications of government investments in companies like Intel and predict inflation's future impact on Fed policies. The hosts also highlight upcoming economic reports, the influence of global bond yields, and the relationship problems between rising yields and stock prices. —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal Media

Jerome Powell's Jackson Hole speech marks a major pivot at the Federal Reserve. Peter Schiff explains how political pressure from the Trump administration has forced Powell's hand, why stagflation is now undeniable, and what this means for gold, the dollar, and the future of the U.S. economy.This episode is sponsored by NetSuite. Download the free ebook “Navigating Global Trade: 3 Insights for Leaders” at https://netsuite.com/goldIn this Sunday Night Live edition of The Peter Schiff Show, Peter compares Powell's capitulation to the “mind right” scene in Cool Hand Luke, warns about the Fed's coming return to QE, and exposes the dangerous precedent of the U.S. government seizing a 10% stake in Intel. Schiff lays out why gold, silver, and foreign stocks are outperforming, and why the next phase of the crisis will be even more severe.00:00 Introduction and Opening Remarks02:15 Powell's Jackson Hole Speech: A Sober Assessment06:48 Trump's Pressure and Powell's “Mind Right” Moment12:02 Comparing Trump and Biden Economies18:37 Stagflation Confirmed: Weak Growth, Stronger Inflation24:10 Fed Policy, Employment Risks, and Inflation Mandate29:44 The End of Inflation Averaging at 2%36:50 Rate Cuts, Quantitative Tightening, and QE Ahead44:15 Market Reactions: Stocks, Bonds, and the Dollar51:28 Gold and Silver Surge vs. Bitcoin's Underperformance58:44 Mining Stocks: GDX and GDXJ Leading 2025 Returns01:05:37 Foreign Stocks and the Great Rotation Out of U.S. Equities01:12:52 Intel's 10% Government Stake and Rising Corporatism01:20:46 Investment Strategy: Gold, Mining, and Foreign Markets01:28:14 Conclusion and Schiff Sovereign UpdateFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiffSign up for Peter's most valuable insights at https://schiffsovereign.comSchiff Gold News: https://www.schiffgold.com/newsFree Reports & Market Updates: https://www.europac.comBook Store: https://schiffradio.com/books#federalreserve #stagflation #gold #inflation #dollarcollapse #economyOur Sponsors:* Check out Boll & Branch: https://bollandbranch.com/SCHIFF* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Jeff Park is a Partner and Chief Investing Officer of ProCap BTC. In this conversation we talk about bitcoin, why the volatility is a feature, institutional adoption, opportunities for bitcoin treasure companies, and why bitcoin rate-of-return is so important. ===================== Independent Investor ConferenceMarkets are at all-time highs. Public equities are outperforming. And individual investors are driving it all. It's officially the rise of the retail investor. On September 12th in NYC, I'm hosting the Independent Investor Summit — a one-day event built exclusively for self-directed investors. We're bringing together some of the smartest public market investors I know for a full day of macro insights, market predictions, one-on-one fireside chats, and actionable investment ideas from each investor. This is going to be an absolute banger event. Join us if you like markets and think retail is two steps ahead of Wall Street.

Opinions by market pundits have been flying since Fed Chair Powell's remarks at Jackson Hole last week, leaving the door open for interest rate cuts as soon as in September. Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson explains his continued call for a bullish outlook on U.S. stocks.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing the Fed's new signaling on policy and what it means for stocks. It's Monday, August 25th at 11:30am in New York. So, let's get after it. Over the past few months, the markets started to anticipate a Fed pivot to a more dovish stance this fall. More specifically, the bond market started to price in a very high likelihood for the Fed to start cutting interest rates again in September. Equities have taken their cues from this signaling in the bond market by trading higher through most of the summer – despite lingering concerns about tariffs, international conflicts and valuation. I have remained bullish throughout this period given our focus on historically strong earnings revisions and the view that the Fed's next move would be to cut rates even if the timing remained uncertain. Last week, the Fed held its annual symposium in Jackson Hole where they typically discuss near term policy intentions as well as larger considerations for their strategic policy framework. We learned two key things. First, the Fed seems closer to cutting rates in September than the last time Chair Powell spoke publicly. This change also comes after a week in which the markets were left wondering if he would remain more hawkish until inflation data confirmed what markets have already figured out. Clearly, Powell leaned more dovish. And with markets a bit nervous going into his speech on Friday morning, equities rallied sharply the rest of the day. Second, the Fed also indicated that it will no longer target average inflation at 2 percent. Instead, it will make 2 percent the target at all times. This means the Fed will not tolerate inflation above or below target to manage the average like it did in 2021-22. It also suggests a more hawkish Fed should the economy recover more strongly than is currently expected or inflation reaccelerates. From my standpoint, this is bullish for stocks over the next few weeks and markets can now fully anticipate Fed cuts in September. However, I see a few risks for September and October worth thinking about as the S&P 500 approaches our longstanding 6500 target. The first risk is the Fed decides to not cut after all because either growth is better or inflation is higher than expected. That would be worth a small correction in stocks given the high likelihood of a cut that is now priced in. The second risk is the Fed cuts but the bond market decides it's being too carefree about inflation and longer term bonds sell off. A sharp rise in 10-year Treasury yields would likely elicit a bigger correction in stocks until the Treasury and Fed regain control. Here's the important message I want to leave you with. A major bear market ended in April, and a new bull market began. It's rare for new bull markets to last only four months and more likely they last one-to-two years, at a minimum. What that means is that any dips we get this fall are likely to be buying opportunities for longer term investors. What gives us even more confidence in that statement is that earnings revisions continue to move sharply higher. The Fed uses economic data to make its decisions and that data is generally backward looking. Equity investors look at company data and guidance which is forward looking. This fact alone explains the wide divergence between equity prices and Fed decisions, which tend to be late and after equity markets have already figured out what's going to happen rather than what's in the past. Bottom line, I remain bullish on the next 12 months given what companies and equity markets are telling us. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

After celebratory markets late last week following indications that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at its September meeting, this week is starting with a bit of a headache. Markets are eager for a rate cut, but signs of a weaker labor market and uncertainty from tariff and immigration policy are complicating the economic picture. Then, Australia is hoping to ease the rare earths bottleneck after China said it's tightening controls on mining and processing.

Marty sits down with Michael Howell to discuss the Fed's predicament at Jackson Hole, global liquidity cycles, the structural shift toward collateral-dependent lending, and how mounting debt refinancing pressures alongside AI capital expenditures are creating conditions that favor monetary inflation hedges like Bitcoin and gold. CrossBorder Capital on Twitter: https://x.com/crossbordercap STACK SATS hat: https://tftcmerch.io/ Our newsletter: https://www.tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ TFTC Elite (Ad-free & Discord): https://www.tftc.io/#/portal/signup/ Discord: https://discord.gg/VJ2dABShBz Opportunity Cost Extension: https://www.opportunitycost.app/ Shoutout to our sponsors: Bitkey https://bit.ly/TFTCBitkey20 Unchained https://unchained.com/tftc/ Obscura https://obscura.net/ Join the TFTC Movement: Main YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/c/TFTC21/videos Clips YT Channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCUQcW3jxfQfEUS8kqR5pJtQ Website https://tftc.io/ Newsletter tftc.io/bitcoin-brief/ Twitter https://twitter.com/tftc21 Instagram https://www.instagram.com/tftc.io/ Nostr https://primal.net/tftc Follow Marty Bent: Twitter https://twitter.com/martybent Nostr https://primal.net/martybent Newsletter https://tftc.io/martys-bent/ Podcast https://www.tftc.io/tag/podcasts/

A.M. Edition for Aug 22. Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium this morning, where WSJ editor Quentin Webb says the Federal Reserve Chair is expected to detail a significant policy shift on an economic strategy that soured. Plus, the Trump administration considers taking equity stakes in companies receiving Chips Act funds. And, in our Price of Parenting series, WSJ's Sandra Kilhof speaks to personal finance reporters Veronica Dagher and Joe Pinsker for some money-saving hacks to help with the hidden costs of raising a child. Azhar Sukri hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices