Onyx and the World of Oil Derivatives

In this of Trading Corner, hosts Manny and James dissect the extraordinary strength in the gasoil market and unravel the mechanics behind dislocations across the barrel. From front spreads hitting unprecedented highs to refinery margins soaring amid tight diesel supplies, Manny and James explore why the usual summer seasonality is failing to materialise.They examine the knock-on effects on crude, particularly the puzzling weakness in prompt physical markets despite bullish futures curves and the implications for refinery utilization and freight. As the conversation evolves, they assess regional dynamics, from European strength to softer Eastern margins, and discuss how arbitrage and freight might balance the global flows.Trade Ideas Discussed:- Manny - Bearish WTI Brent Position & Short Front Flys - James - Long Dec 26 EBOB CracksCFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is back alongside Research Associate Martha Dowding and Research Analyst Will Cunliffe to break down the oil market's summer reset following the “12-day war” shock. With volumes and conviction draining out of the system, the team explores whether the return to calm signals a true inflexion point - or just the eye of the storm. This week's discussion dives into:• OPEC's latest move: why a larger-than-expected paper unwind didn't shake the market - and what the Saudi OSP hike is really signalling• China's quiet buying spree, refinery margins at record highs, and what they reveal about demand• Europe's extreme weather: how heatwaves are throttling refinery output and driving distillate cracks skyward• Macro mayhem: the U.S. dollar's strange new correlation with oil, Trump's tariff chaos, and signs of a bearish shift in U.S. economic leadership• Gasoline's fade: why cracks are slipping even in peak summer, and whether the distillate rally is now overcooked• UK pump prices are rising again - what the forward curve tells us about what you'll pay next• The Gold Rush and the Widowmaker: who made money in the Brent time spreads, and who got burned in the gasoline-gas oil spread unwind Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Join James Brodie, James Todd, and Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets. This episode was recorded at 11am BST on Monday, the 7th of July, 2025. 

In this episode of The Officials, we welcome a new voice to the show—Spyridon Kokas, the latest addition to the Officials team. Together, Ed and Spyridon dive deep into the imminent release of the Saudi Official Selling Prices (OSPs), expected tomorrow, and examine what recent changes in the Dubai physical market structure might mean for the August figures.They explore: • The rise in Dubai physical premiums due to geopolitical tensions, especially the Israel-Iran conflict. • Why June trading is critical to forecasting the August OSP. • The Saudi strategy of discretionary OSP adjustments and what that implies for this month's pricing. • The broader OPEC+ narrative of market stability, including the ongoing unwind of voluntary production cuts. • Summer burn factors and domestic demand dynamics in Saudi Arabia. • Export behaviour amid Strait of Hormuz security concerns and their implications for crude pricing signals. Expect sharp insights, data-backed expectations (hint: a 65–70 cent hike is on the table), and a continued theme of pricing discipline from Riyadh. Don't miss our reports and real-time commentary on Twitter following the release.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and "Geek in the Seat" Harinder Sandhu to unpack the aftermath of the Israel-Iran conflict and its whiplash effect on global oil markets. With volatility collapsing, producer hedging accelerating, and refiners raking in profits, they look beneath the headlines to understand who actually came out on top - and why the bearish consensus might be getting ahead of itself. This week's discussion dives into:• The volatility unwind: how trade houses crushed overpriced options after the ceasefire• Why flat price ignored the news flow - and what Brent spreads reveal about true sentiment• The return of Iranian barrels, Trump's oil tweets, and what they mean for 2025 balances• OPEC's next move: paper unwind or physical flood? And why the Saudis are playing it slow• CTA, hedge fund, and retail whiplash: who faded the spike, and who got caught?• Crack spreads remain sky-high, even as UK refineries shut down. What's really going on here?• And more! Want to trade?Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

In this episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile macro crosscurrents in markets as U.S. equities push to fresh all-time highs and the dollar resumes its downtrend. Key highlights include:• U.S. consumer cracks widening• Housing on the brink• Fed doves emerge• Inflation expectations collapse• Employment weakness deepens• Equities defy fundamentals• Gold tests key support• Dollar dives• Hedge funds retreat: CTAs flip net short, and Andurand's flagship fund drops another 12.7%• BOE turns dovish• Tesla soars & Nvidia at new highs Key data releases this week:

This week on The Officials, Will and Ed unpack one of the most volatile weeks in recent oil market memory, as geopolitical theatre and contractual chaos collide. With crude prices swinging wildly and trust in Middle Eastern supply chains under fire, they dive into:The aggressive $10+ sell-off after Iran's retaliatory strikesWhy the market rallied first - then collapsedWhat the “Trump call” and “China put” mean for price floorsHow a 20% under-delivery from ADNOC has shaken physical marketsWhy traders are facing $10–12 million losses on hedged cargoesThe mechanics of operational tolerance—and how ADNOC may have broken themGrowing fear that IFAD's credibility is at risk (some say it's “dead”)What this means for Murban futures and the broader pricing structure Will and Ed also explore whether this was just a one-off allocation miss - or something more serious that could fracture trust in the Gulf's benchmark systems. 

Trading Corner | Crude Oil Chaos, Brent Structure, and Summer Market OutlookWelcome back to Trading Corner! In this episode, Manny and James dive into one of the most volatile two-week stretches in recent crude oil markets. From surprise short-covering rallies to aggressive sell-offs, they unpack the psychology and positioning behind the recent price swings — and what they reveal about market sentiment. Topics covered:The dramatic market reaction around Friday the 13thCrude oil structure analysis: flatprice, spreads, and contangoGeopolitical risk: Iran & the Strait of Hormuz threatCTA flows and positioning trendsBrent vs. WTI dynamics and TI-Brent outlookRefinery margins and crack spread behaviourDistillate vs. gasoline: “Widowmaker” tradesDeferred contracts and structural shorts With deep insights from live desk experience, this episode covers both macro and micro market forces, real-time trader psychology, and how institutions are positioning into the summer months. Trade Ideas Discussed: Short Sep/Oct v Oct/Nov Brent  Short Dec/Jun/Dec Brent  Short WTI-BrentLong Dec 26 EBOB #CrudeOil #Brent #OilTrading #CommodityMarkets #RefineryMargins #TradingStrategy #EnergyMarkets #CTA #Geopolitics #StraitsOfHormuz #TradingCorner CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. 

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by  Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque and Research Associate Vincent Wu to unpack a volatile week in oil markets following missile exchanges between Israel and Iran - exacerbated by the U.S. stepping in. With a dramatic rally in options and front-end time spreads giving way to an even sharper collapse, the team dissects what actually drove the price action—and what happens next. This week's discussion dives into:• Why options (not flat price) drove the rally: open interest, hedging panic, and call buying hysteria• The Strait of Hormuz closure fear trade; how serious is the risk of strait closure?• The Polymarket signal, GPS jamming rumours, and real-time tanker trolling• How ADNOC's tactics sparked chaos in the physical market - and put the Murban benchmark at risk• CTAs, hedge funds, and retail: who made money, and who got smoked?• Refinery margins explode again: who hedged at the top and what it means for supply• Plus: the return of OPEC to the spotlight - and why Trump's oil tweets may matter more than ever Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

Join James Brodie & Will Cunliffe for a brand new episode of Macro Mondays, as they unpack another volatile week in global markets. 

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, "Geek in the Seat" Research Associate Martha Dowding, Director of Benchmarking Jorge Montepeque, and Research Associate Will Cunliffe from The Officials. With crude prices spiking and time spreads surging after geopolitical escalation between Israel and Iran, the team explores whether this marks a structural shift or a short-lived frenzy.Is the oil market bracing for sustained turmoil, or is the smart money already fading the move? This week's discussion dives into:• Explosive rallies in Brent time spreads and front-month volatility: geopolitical panic or justified repricing?• Illiquid options markets, call seller pain, and how market makers got caught • Why retail investors are piling in—and why that may signal a top• The Strait of Hormuz dilemma: real flow threats vs. diplomatic suicide• Freight premiums, Dubai vs Brent pricing, and the resilience of global oil logistics• Pump prices and retail backlash: UK wholesale dynamics, delayed pass-throughs, and what end-users can actually do• Plus: refinery margins hit new highs, and which cracks and differentials traders are watching most closely for the next big moveWant to trade?Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

In this explosive episode of Macro Mondays, James Brodie, James Todd & Will Cunliffe unpack the most volatile week in global markets this year.Key highlights include:Middle East tensions flare: The Israel-Iran conflict escalates, sending crude oil surging and gold prices spiking to the critical $3435 resistance level.U.S. inflation cools unexpectedly: CPI and PPI data come in well below consensus, while initial jobless claims rise, deepening recession fears.UK payroll shock: Employment falls sharply post-budget, with unemployment now at 4.6%—the highest since 2021.China data mixed: Consumer prices slip into deflation, while retail sales jump 6.4% amid government stimulus.Fund managers turn bearish: Paul Tudor Jones, Jeffrey Gundlach, and Jamie Dimon issue stark macro warnings—drawing parallels to 2007 and 1999.Stocks under pressure: U.S. equities break key support levels; insider selling hits record highs; tech valuations remain stretched.Dollar sinks to 3-year lows: FX markets react sharply, with EURUSD continuing its uptrend and USDJPY stuck in a tight range.Bitcoin stalls: Price caught between $100K support and $112K resistance as volatility looms.Plus: Central bank bonanza ahead—FOMC, BOE, BOJ, and SNB decisions in focus this week.Tune in for actionable macro insights, technical breakdowns, and positioning analysis from top global fund managers. Don't miss the Charts of the Week, including Meta's crucial support test.

In this episode, Will and Ed from The Officials dive into the upcoming OPEC+ meeting and the latest quota and compliance dynamics shaping oil markets - just days ahead of Saudi Arabia's anticipated OSP announcement. What's Covered:Why OPEC's production cuts remain central to price stabilityThe increasing tension between quota compliance and fiscal needs for producers like Iraq and KazakhstanSaudi Arabia's strategic positioning and growing frustration with non-compliant membersHow market expectations are shifting ahead of the June 5th OPEC meetingThe likely trajectory of Saudi OSPs amid structural softening in Dubai and late-month pricing dynamicsThe evolving Brent/Dubai differential and what it signals for Atlantic Basin and Middle East gradesThe ripple effects of China's tariffs on WTI, and the emerging demand from India and Korea 

In this episode of Trading Corner, James and Manny unpack an unusually balanced crude market, where everything should be moving - but isn't. With WTI defying fundamentals, Brent spreads losing steam, and products drifting post-rally, they dig into: Why front-end WTI time spreads are surging above $1What Brent-Dubai convergence says about physical flowsWhy the data window and physical diffs are underwhelming despite peak margin seasonThe resilience of fuel oil cracks and the tightness still priced inA cooling margin environment and what that means for product hedgesTrading strategies for a sideways market: short July/Aug Dated and exit half of Dec ‘26 gasoline longs Glossary terms featured this week:  MurbanA light, sweet crude oil produced in Abu Dhabi, known for its high quality and used widely in Asia; a benchmark in the ICE Futures Abu Dhabi market. RallyA period of sustained increase in price action.MarginsThe difference between the prices of refined products and crude inputs, weighted by yield, which represents the refinery's profit (excluding transport and power).DFLDated-to-Frontline. A monthly contract that measures the premium of physical North Sea crude (Dated Brent) to Brent swaps.Time SpreadA time spread, or ‘calendar spread', in oil derivatives, is a strategy where a trader simultaneously buys and sells two futures or options contracts for the same oil quantity but with different expiration dates. This strategy aims to profit from the change in the price difference, or spread, between these two contracts over time.WTIWTI is a light, sweet crude oil that is produced in the United States. It is the main benchmark for US crude oil.CrackDifferential between a barrel of product and barrel of crude. DiffsDifferentials or "diffs" are contracts priced against one another.FlyA calendar spread strategy involving three consecutive contract months. Brent SpreadsA differential of a shorter-term and longer-term Brent futures contract. E.g. the M1/M2 spread is the M1 Brent futures minus the M2 Brent futures contract. 

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Research Associate Mita Chaturvedi to decode the hidden signals driving oil markets higher as speculative capital surges back into crude - despite mixed macro sentiment and seasonal demand concerns. Is this a genuine breakout or another false dawn? This week's discussion dives into:• Brent and WTI futures breaking out: bullish momentum or overextended rally?• Surge in refining utilisation and margin resilience - how long can it last?• Why CTAs are backing off shorts and what that means for risk appetite• The China puzzle: record crude inventories, heavy refinery turnarounds, and what to expect next• OPEC underproduction, Saudi allocations, and the quiet game of signalling restraint• Pump prices, U.S. gasoline demand weakness, and why refiners may be overproducing into a glut• Plus: crack spreads, fuel oil strength, and whether the market is setting up for a Q3 reversalAs mentioned in the episode, our more technical content will be making the move to our Flux platform - which is free with an Onyx Markets account, offers free trials, and offers great value for traders. Learn more & sign up here: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 9th of June, 2025.  

In this episode, Group CEO Greg Newman is joined by Research Associate Vincent Wu and Research Analyst Edward Hayden-Briffett to unpack the mounting pressure across the oil market as physical fundamentals clash with financial positioning. Refinery margins are cracking, Brent time spreads have surged then stalled, and OPEC's headline theatre is wearing thin. Are we approaching a tipping point - or just another seesaw in the market?This episode also covers:The Brent market's $60/bbl floor: real support or short-covering illusion?A look into distillate and naphtha weakness - and what it signals for marginsOPEC's layered cuts, voluntary compliance issues, and Abu Dhabi's Murban pivotCrack spread compression and what it means for global refinery utilisationHedge fund activity, CTA short positioning, and why funds are sitting out the rallyPlus: why the physical oil market is finally starting to behave rationally - and what that means for trading the rest of the year. Want to trade?Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 2nd of June, 2025. Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching abroad. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

Welcome back to Trading Corner.  This week, James and Manny dive headfirst into the wild ride that is the HSFO market and what it means for cracks, margins, and benchmark distortion.Three trades this week:James' Trade Idea:Hold Long Dec '26 EBOB Crack — Deferred gasoline margins still underpriced with summer upside in sight.Manny's Trade Ideas:Long June/July DFL Roll — Tight barrels and seasonal strength point to continued structure.Long Q3 DFL — Dubai benchmark pricing is misfiring, but physicals suggest upside still to come.From refinery complexity choking HSFO supply, to a benchmark blindspot in Dubai, and a product market that's tightening as the mercury rises, James and Manny unpack the big themes:* Why high-sulfur fuel oil cracks are breaking records* The lead/lag dance between fuel and crude pricing* A deep dive on Dubai's Murban distortion and why it's capping benchmark reaction* When "margin boxes" lie — and how to trade what's really happening* The case for long product / short crude reversals as we enter Q3* Why June vs. July is where the curve gets interestingGlossary terms featured this week:Crack Differential between a barrel of product and crude oil, indicating refinery margin.Volatility Volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time.HSFO Fuel oil with higher sulfur contents - max: 3.5%. Typically used in shipping and power generation.Margins The difference between the prices of refined products and crude oil.Platts Price Reporting Agency which provides benchmark price assessments in the physical energy markets.Lead / Lag The lead-lag relationship in trading describes how one market or asset (the "leader") tends to move ahead of another (the "lagger"), allowing traders to anticipate price movements based on these patterns.Over brought “Over brought” refers to a market condition where a trader has purchased more of a commodity than intended or than the market can absorb, increasing downside risk if demand falls short.Balmo "Balmo" (Balance of Month) refers to contracts covering the remaining days of the current month, used for short-term supply or hedging once the month is underway.Dubai (contract) The Dubai contract is a crude oil benchmark used to price Middle Eastern exports to Asia, reflecting medium sour crude and managed by the Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME).Naphtha Naphtha is a light, flammable hydrocarbon liquid from petroleum refining, used in gasoline production and widely in industrial and petrochemical processes.

Sleeping Volatility: Giant Waiting in the Wings?In this episode, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans and Harinder Sandhu break down the most explosive move in the fuel oil complex in over a decade. Singapore 380 cracks have surged to triple the 5-year average, with speculative interest hitting record highs. Is this a sustainable bull run—or a dangerously crowded trade?The Flux News Show also covers:The Brent/Dubai spread tightening and its impact on global crude flowsSaudi Arabia's upcoming OSPs and the psychology behind their softer pricing stanceChinese refineries buying behaviour and forward structure flatteningSingapore fuel oil open interest, profit-taking risks, and signs of a market peakRegrade signals and how refiners might play the gasoil-fuel oil spread

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 27th of May, 2025. Join James Brodie and James Todd , LIVE 12:30 BST, as they break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next! 

In this episode of The Officials Explain, Will and Ed break down the fascinating world of crude oil grades - and why the market can't afford to ignore their differences.From the lightest Malaysian condensates to Venezuela's goopy Merey 16, they explore how density, sulphur, and even metal content shape both value and logistics.They unpack:• The role of API gravity and sulphur content in defining crude grades• Why yield matters, and how refiners calculate value from gasoline to fuel oil• How soaring fuel oil cracks are flipping traditional Dubai benchmark pricing• The mechanics of quality premiums and sulphur escalators in the North Sea• What refinery setups in Europe, China, and the Gulf of Mexico reveal about global trade flowsThis episode is essential viewing for anyone working with or exposed to crude-linked pricing.All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

The Domino Has Fallen. Refinery margins — the last bullish stronghold — are collapsing. This isn't just a signal; it's confirmation that the market is finally pricing in the oversupply reality that's been building for months.Goldman Sachs. The IEA. Every serious analyst has seen this coming — and now it's here. The second half of the year marks a new regime: the geopolitical premium is dead, supply routes are open, and the market is done licking its wounds from last year's chaos. Volatility has faded. Direction is back. The traders who see this shift are already positioning for what's next: the great normalisation.In this episode of Flux News, the team break down how this moment changes everything — and where the money moves now. They also discuss: The collapse in refinery margins and what it signalsHow the Brent/Dubai spread is spelling out a physical market resetThe surge in CTA and money manager positioning—and why it might be too lateHeadline fatigue, flat volatility, and why everyone's ignoring Iran… for nowWhy Ryanair's recent hedging could be a top signal for distillatesThe crack collapse across gasoil, naphtha, and fuel oilA breakdown of the Great Normalisation—and why directional trades are finally back on the menuGoldman Sachs saw this coming. The IEA flagged it. Now it's here: Geopolitical premium? Dead. Supply? Loose. Demand? Meh. The second half of the year is a new regime. Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 19th of May, 2025.  Research Analyst Will Cunliffe from Onyx Officials joins Direct Trader James Todd as James Brodie is teaching in Singapore.Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

In this episode of The Officials Explain, Ed and Will dive into the sharp shift in the North Sea physical market and what it means for CFD structure. With dated Brent softening fast and CFD spreads flipping into contango, the team lays out why this matters far beyond just the North Sea. They unpack:The collapse in physical differentials—and what Trafigura's exit revealsWhy Midland and Forties flows are flooding the windowThe impact of Grangemouth's closure and rising deliverable barrelsWhat a weakening front-end CFD curve signals for refiners and hedgersHow global dynamics—from Murban gluts to Iranian barrels—are reshaping spreads This episode is a must-watch for anyone trading or managing exposure to Brent-linked pricing. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ 

Welcome back to Trading Corner, where the market's on fire and the cracks are even hotter.This week, Manny and James dissect a juicy dislocation between crude spreads and product strength—and roll out three sharp trade ideas:Manny's Trade Ideas:June/July Dated Brent – seeing upside as product tightness bitesLong Q3 Dated Dubai – early shift in Brent/Dubai positioning could extendJames' Trade Idea:Holding Dec ‘26 EBOB Crack – deferred gasoline margins still look underpriced despite recent rally From refinery margins screaming bullish, to physical barrels disappearing in the East, and the return of Brent/Dubai upside flow, this is the setup before summer truly kicks in. Manny and James unpack:High-sulphur fuel oil strength & air con seasonalityRepsol's surprise crude dump and Spain's refinery outagesProduct-crude disconnect and the case for margin compression tradesWhy now might be the time to buy crude relative to product—but only if you know where If you're trading cracks, curves, or calendar spreads, this episode delivers the real context behind price moves. Skip the noise. Play the dislocations. Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ }

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Mita Chaturvedi, analyse the past week in the oil market. Greg, Harry, and Mita break down the shifting dynamics in crude markets following the latest OPEC output announcements and Saudi crude allocations. They examine how sentiment flipped from bearish to cautiously bullish, with a focus on the impact of geopolitical risks and physical oil fundamentals - including refinery margins and regional supply signals. The team take a detailed look at the 25-delta risk reversal, implications of volatility normalisation, and what the narrowing put-call skew is telling us about trader positioning. They also cover why hedge fund flows are subdued, how Brent/Dubai spreads are reacting to supply concerns, and the recent rally in Singapore VLSFO time spreads. The Officials also call in to weigh in on Saudi allocations, spot markets, and the North Sea.Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm BST on Monday, the 12th of May, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Vincent Wu, analyse the past week in the oil market. Greg, Harry, and Vincent break down the latest developments from OPEC+, analyse the unexpected build in U.S. crude inventories, and explain how macroeconomic indicators like U.S. inflation and China's economic stimulus are moving prices. They also cover refinery maintenance, seasonal demand in approach to summer driving season, Brent forecasts, and more. Will Cunliffe and Edward Hayden-Briffett from The Officials call in to discuss recent movements in Brent/Dubai and a OPEC+'s (potential) price war. Whether you're tracking Brent and WTI prices or watching for the next Fed move, this episode offers actionable insights, trade ideas, and data-backed forecasts for navigating the volatility in energy markets.Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Margins are soaring — but crude oil prices are drifting lower. In this episode of Trading Corner, Manny Newman, Partner and Head of Desk, and James Anderson, Senior Oil Derivatives Trader, return to unpack this unexpected divergence in the market.They dive into the strength in diesel and gasoline cracks, why crude demand remains muted despite strong refining economics, and how unconfirmed OPEC production rumors are influencing sentiment. The episode also explores positioning opportunities — including long-dated gasoline cracks, Brent/Dubai spread strategies, and Q3 crude risk setups.

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion from Onyx Markets, and Geek in the Seat, Martha Dowding, analyse the past week in the oil market.Greg, Harry and Martha unpack the long-term implications of OPEC's latest production cuts and the escalating tug-of-war between supply control and market stability. They discuss how OPEC's coordinated actions - particularly from key players like Saudi Arabia and Russia - are expected to fuel a 5-year surge in oil market volatility, reshaping trading strategies across the globe. They also analyse the role of U.S. shale producers, shifting demand patterns in Asia, and how geopolitical friction—especially in the Middle East—is amplifying uncertainty in global oil flows.They also analyse how institutional investors, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds are positioning themselves in this turbulent environment, and what it means for oil futures, energy stocks, and commodity ETFs. Whether you're trading WTI or Brent, or just trying to understand how oil price swings affect inflation and your portfolio, this episode delivers critical insight into the mechanics behind the world's most watched commodity market.Want to trade?Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

Are Hedge Funds Missing the Oil Market Rally? | Flux News Oil Markets Deep Dive – April 2025 In this episode of Flux News, Group CEO, Greg Newman, Harry Campion and Geek in the Seat, Harinder Sandhu break down why the physical crude oil market is surging while hedge funds and CTAs remain under-positioned—and potentially on the wrong side of the trade.Our hosts unpack the implications of U.S.-Iran negotiations, China's quiet crude-buying spree, and refinery margins that continue to signal strength. Whether you're trading Brent, WTI, or niche time spreads, we've got you covered with the essential macro and micro catalysts moving oil prices today.In our new segment, Hedge Fund Watch, Greg, Harry and Harinder discuss RBOB vs. Heating Oil and explain how hedge funds and trade houses are playing both sides of the barrel. Our new segment offers insight into managed money flows and what they mean for price direction. Whether you're learning or trading, this is a must-watch for real market edge.Want to trade? Get a behind-the-scenes look at how the pros express views with relative value trades, uncorrelated contracts, and smart positioning. This episode is rich in education for newer traders, and deep enough for veterans hunting asymmetric opportunities. All the trades discussed are live on Onyx Markets, where you can practice, simulate, or dive in. Visit https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/

In this episode of the Flux News podcast, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and guest analyst (Geek in the Seat) to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets. The team breaks down how the oil market is reacting to headline volatility around the US-China trade war, OPEC policy shifts and rising talks between the US and Iran. They also discuss support in the physical oil market despite the macro uncertainty and discuss recent shifts in refinery margins, Brent time differentials and the Brent/Dubai differential. This episode is packed with actionable trade setups, including a breakdown of Q4 Brent/Dubai, naphtha crack trades, and insights into the high-sulfur fuel oil rally. They break down complex structures like Dated Brent and condensate-linked contracts in plain language, so even if you're new to energy markets, you'll walk away with real-world strategies to explore and a better understanding of what really drives price in this space.Key topics include Brent spreads and the physical market's dislocation to global macro headlines, the Iranian nuclear deal, the rally in high-sulphur fuel oil, and a look into US and European gasoline contracts ahead of summertime demand. 

In this episode, the Trading Corner team delves into the recent turbulence in the oil markets, examining the significant $10 sell-off in crude prices and its implications across various asset classes. The discussion highlights the unexpected outperformance of dated Brent relative to futures and spreads, and the resilience observed in specific contracts despite widespread market liquidation.​Key topics include:The dynamics of flat price movements and the impact of mass liquidation events.​Strategies involving long flies and positioning at the front of the curve.​Seasonal demand factors influencing May cargoes in Europe and Asia.​Insights into middle distillates, with a focus on gas oil and heating oil cracks.​The role of swaps and price action in current market conditions.​The influence of summer travel demand on jet fuel markets.​Analysis of margins and the performance of light ends, particularly EBOB.​The episode also features trade ideas, including a bullish outlook on Q3 EBOB cracks and considerations for heating oil cracks in deferred periods. You can gain valuable perspectives on navigating the complexities of the oil derivatives market during periods of volatility.CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 14th of April, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

In this action-packed episode of Flux News, Greg Newman, CEO of Onyx Capital Group, is joined by James Todd from the Direct Trading team and guest analyst (and Geek in the Seat) Harinder Sandhu to dissect the unprecedented volatility shaking global markets.The Flux News team dives into the explosive movements in oil prices, with Brent futures plummeting below $64/bbl, driven by unexpected tariff announcements, OPEC headlines, and shifting macroeconomic sentiment. They explore the ripple effects across asset classes, from equities to natural gas, and discuss the role of herd mentality in amplifying market reactions.Key topics include the resurgence of discretionary hedge funds, the impact of CTA-driven momentum trading, and how traders are navigating these turbulent times. Today's episode unpacks how geopolitical moves—like Trump's aggressive tariff policies—are reshaping energy markets and fuelling recession fears. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just fascinated by market dynamics, this episode offers valuable insights into trading strategies amid chaos and opportunity as well as Trade ideas and crystal ball predictions for the week ahead. Tune in for an engaging breakdown of market trends and actionable takeaways for navigating today's high stakes trading environment!Trade for free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: https://www.onyxcapitalgroup.com/fluxhttps://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup Follow us: YouTube:  https://www.youtube.com/@flux_newsLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this second episode of Europe, Power & Gas, Mirko Ivanda, Co-Head of Power & Gas at Onyx, sits down with Dan Cordell of Human Capital Group to explore the human side of energy trading—who succeeds, why they do, and how talent is built and broken in today's volatile markets.From the backstory of Onyx's power & gas expansion to hiring red flags, leadership gaps, and mental resilience, this is a straight-talking deep dive into how people, not just policy, are shaping the future of European energy.Filmed in our Zug, Switzerland media office.https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@flux_news LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/ X: https://x.com/Onyx__Edge TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroup Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ #EnergyMarkets #EuropePowerGas #OilAndGas #EnergyCrisis #MarketVolatility #Geopolitics #Trading #NaturalGas #CarbonMarkets #Electricity #Commodities #GlobalEnergy

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/fluxWelcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into key market movements in crude oil and product spreads. They discuss their successful contrarian trade call on DFL, driven by short covering and seasonal demand shifts. They highlight the strength in crude - particularly WTI - as the market navigates refinery turnarounds and shifting trade flows. Looking ahead, Manny and James see potential upside in WTI spreads, while product markets remain relatively quiet, with gasoline showing seasonal strength but lacking compelling trades. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Vincent Wu from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals. Please note, this episode was filmed at 8:30am BST on 1st April, 2025. They analyse the Brent-Dubai spread, the strength in gasoline cracks, and the volatility in the dated Brent market. Greg, Harry and Vincent also explore potential trade ideas, such as going long on the Brent-Dubai spread and the VLSFO crack.The  episode highlights the importance of understanding physical market dynamics, technical analysis, and managing risk when trading in the oil markets.Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Get live, industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Chapters for this episode are:0:00 Introduction0:55 Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the Market4:40 Herd Mentality: What's Driving the Market?18:56 Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big!27:52 Widow Maker: The Market's Biggest Trap42:28 Deep Dive: Inside the Data That Matters46:52 Onyx Beta: The Broad Market Outlook59:58 The Officials - The Technical Breakdown

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 31st of March, 2025. Join us LIVE every Monday at 12:30 PM UK time for Macro Mondays with James Brodie and James Todd, where we break down the biggest financial market moves and what's coming next!

Our latest show, the Flux News podcast is here. Hosted by Greg Newman, Group CEO, Harry Campion-Evans from Onyx Markets and Martha Dowding from Onyx Research, the show offers a comprehensive overview and discussion of the current oil market dynamics and trading strategies from the perspective of experienced industry professionals. The show is broken down into multiple segments, so please feel free to skip to the segment you like. Temperature Check: Your Pulse on the MarketRight now, the market is warming up, with a sharp reversal of speculative short positions in Brent & WTI as CTAs hit their limits. Bullish momentum is building in crude and gasoline contracts, driving a steady market advance. Don't miss out—tap in for real-time insights, expert takes, and the hottest trends shaping the market!Herd Mentality: What's Driving the Market?Right now, traders are locked in on Middle Eastern crude and the latest OPEC headlines—that's where the herd is moving…While sanctions and geopolitical tensions, like the Israel-Gaza conflict, are in the mix, it's the OPEC narrative and supply dynamics that are truly shaping market sentiment. Stay ahead of the pack with our deep dives into what's really moving traders!Gold Rush: Where Traders Struck Big! The biggest money-maker in the oil markets? Brent vs. Dubai differential! A sharp, predictable downward move—driven by OPEC headlines and Iran/Venezuela sanctions—set up a prime opportunity for trade houses and speculators to cash in. While Naphtha shorts in the MOPJ Crack also paid off, Brent-Dubai was the real jackpot. Stay locked in for the next big setup! Widow Maker: The Market's Biggest TrapThe 380 fuel oil crack caught traders off guard with a violent, unexpected rally that surged deep into positive territory. What seemed like a clear short turned into a painful squeeze, leaving many in the red. This shock move blindsided the market and proved once again why risk management is everything. Stay sharp—don't get caught in the next Widow Maker.Deep Dive: Inside the Data That MattersMartha broke down the intricacies of Onyx's proprietary data, offering a closer look at Naphtha's setup going forward. From technical patterns and positioning to the pricing window backdrop, she mapped out the key signals traders need to watch. If you're looking for an edge in the market, this is where you'll find it. Crystal Ball: Trade Ideas & Forward-Looking AnalysisThis segment focuses on where the market is heading next, using a mix of fundamental insights and proprietary research to generate trade ideas. It's broken down into three key sub-segments:Onyx Beta – The Broad Market OutlookThis is where the hosts lay out their big-picture views on key oil market benchmarks, looking at:Brent crude – directional bias and price action expectations.Front Brent timespread – analyzing the structure of the curve and potential moves in backwardation or contango.EBOB Crack – assessing the gasoline crack spread in Europe and its implications.Low Sulfur Fuel Crack in Asia – examining refining margins and demand signals for LSFO in the Asian market.Harry & Greg's Trade of the WeekTo wrap up, Harry and Greg selected their favorite trade idea based on the discussion throughout the show. This time, they landed on the DFL (Dated Brent vs. Brent differential) as the best way to position for spot physical crude strength, reflecting tightness in the physical oil market versus the futures market.     

Register your interest in James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course here: onyxcapitalgroup.com/trading-courses Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm on Monday, the 24th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week: A dovish Fed sees risk sentiment rally LEI & US CEO business confidence both fall sharply Gold uptrend stalls, while Brent sits on key $69 support April 2nd tariff deadline looms Key data releases this week: Monday – EZ, UK & US flash PMIs Tuesday – German IFO, US home sales & consumer confidence Wednesday – Australian CPI, UK CPI Thursday – Japan Tokyo CPI, US jobless claims, pending home sales Friday – UK retail sales, US Umich sentiment, Core PCE deflator CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Industry-grade data on Flux Terminal: onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux Welcome back to Trading Corner! This week, Manny and James dive into the latest gasoline market shake-up, discussing the aggressive liquidation and stop-outs that caught many by surprise. They analyse the impact of weak US stats, positioning imbalances, and shifting demand dynamics. Plus, they break down how Trump tariff concerns and refinery economics are influencing the market. Will gasoline rally into the summer driving season, or is this just a temporary bounce? They also explore crude market dislocations, product spreads, and the implications of refinery maintenance worldwide. Tune in for expert insights and their trade idea!https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.  Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Learn more about James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn Contact us about learning & development: OnyxLND@OnyxCapitalGroup.com This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 17th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week: Chinese data beats expectations while US data continues to disappoint Gold surges through $3,000 U.S. equity declines continue Trump speaks with Putin Tuesday Key data releases this week: Monday – U.S. retail sales Tuesday – EZ economic sentiment, US housing starts Wednesday – BOJ & FOMC rate decisions, NZ GDP Thursday – BOE rate decision, Aussie employment, US leading index Friday – US consumer confidence Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don't miss it! https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Robert McNally, President of Rapitan Energy Group, to unpack the latest developments in U.S. energy policy, geopolitics, and oil markets under the Trump administration.Harry and Robert discuss key topics such as Iran sanctions, OPEC+ dynamics, and the delicate balancing act of driving oil prices lower while maintaining domestic production. Robert also provides expert insights into the administration's strategy, drawing on his experience working with the George W. Bush administration.The discussion also dives into the ongoing negotiations surrounding Ukraine and Russia, the evolving U.S.-Saudi relationship, and how these factors impact global oil markets. With first-hand experience in both policy and market analysis, Robert sheds light on how Washington's decisions ripple through global markets. If you're looking to decode the administration's approach to energy and trade, this is a must-watch episode.Trade for free with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.ukGet industry news, research, and commentary on Flux News: flux.liveGet live industry-grade data on Flux Terminal - free with Onyx Markets: https://onyxcapitalgroup.com/flux_______________________________________________________________________________________ Follow us:https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, Ed and Will dive into the economic turmoil caused by tariffs and trade uncertainty. Stock markets are in freefall, with the Nasdaq dropping 4%, and businesses across industries—from steel to semiconductors—are left scrambling. The Officials break down how tariffs disrupt global trade, impact GDP, and fuel inflation concerns. The Officials discuss the broader implications for monetary policy, the Federal Reserve's dilemma, and how trade tensions between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico are reshaping economic strategies. Plus, they explore the latest geopolitical developments, including U.S.-Russia negotiations on Ukraine, energy market shifts, and the outlook for oil prices. Are we headed for a prolonged slowdown? What does this mean for investors and policymakers? Tune in for a sharp, no-nonsense discussion on the state of the global economy.

Trade with Onyx Markets: onyxmarkets.co.uk Sign up for James Brodie's Onyx Institute trading course: onyxcapitalgroup.com/learn This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12pm on Monday, the 10th of March, 2025. Join us every Monday at 12pm UK time for Macro Mondays LIVE with James Brodie and James Todd, as we unpack the major developments shaping global markets and look ahead to a pivotal week. Key highlights this week: U.S. employment data in line with expectations German fiscal expansion sends yields surging (worst day in 35 years) China falls into deflation again Dollar's 3rd worst week in 15 years Bullish bets for oil near 15-year lows Key data releases this week: Tuesday – JOLTS job openings Wednesday – US CPI, mortgage applications, BOC rate decision Thursday– US PPI Friday – US consumer sentiment, UK GDP & IP  Tune in for expert insights, actionable analysis, and an in-depth look at how these shifts impact the markets and your strategies. Don't miss it! https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFD- and spread bet-retail accounts generally lose money.

Don't forget to visit Onyx Markets! https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/ Welcome back to Trading Corner. Manny and James break down the latest moves in crude and product markets.This episode of Trading Corner dives into the latest market trends, breaking down recent shifts in oil prices, refinery margins, and the broader financial landscape. The hosts chat about how geopolitical events, financial pressures, and supply-demand dynamics are shaping the market, sharing their takes on what could happen next. They also discuss trading strategies, the impact of turnarounds, and whether the current bearish sentiment will stick around. Tune in as Manny and James analyse the data, the market's reactions, and what to expect. https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroupFollow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/ CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by Onyx Capital Advisory Limited or Onyx Commodities Limited (together "Onyx") or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person.  This material should not be regarded as a substitute for obtaining independent professional advice, including investment, tax and legal advice. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination. No assurances or guarantees are given as to the reliability, accuracy, or completeness of any such information or any matter contained in Onyx's material, and such material may contain statements which are matters of judgment and which are subject to change at any time without notice. Onyx accepts no duty or liability, whatsoever, to any party in respect of this material. Under no circumstances will Onyx be responsible for any losses incurred (whatever their nature) resulting directly or indirectly from the use or interpretation of any information contained in this material. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.Content producers are required to ensure that they have a reasonable basis for their analysis, predictions, and recommendations. Onyx maintains strict regulatory controls to mitigate any conflicts of interest, including information barriers and restrictions on undertaking personal transactions in financial instruments.

Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian is joined by guest Kate Durian, Fellow of the Energy Institute UK & Contributing Editor to the Middle East Economic Survey (MEES) publication, for a special episode.Drawing on Kate's experience, they discuss Saudi Arabia's strategic approach to oil production, the UAE's evolving role within OPEC+, and the broader impact of U.S. foreign policy under Trump. They also explore Iran's oil exports amid sanctions, the shifting dynamics of global supply and demand, and the long-term sustainability of OPEC+ market management strategies.In addition to market fundamentals, the podcast highlights geopolitical tensions in the Middle East - particularly the impact of the ongoing Gaza conflict and regional economic pressures. Harry and Kate analyse the potential consequences of U.S. tariffs, Saudi-UAE relations, and Iraq's compliance with OPEC+ targets.  Trade with Onyx Markets: https://onyxmarkets.co.uk/https://linktr.ee/onyxcapitalgroup Follow us: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@worldofoilderivativesLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/onyx-capitalgroup/X: https://x.com/Onyx__EdgeTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@onyxcgroupInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/onyxcgroup/CFDs and spread bets are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts lose money when trading in CFDs and spread bets. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs and spread bets work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.