Oil Ground Up

This conversation delves into the critical role of tankers in the global oil market with shipping analyst Jeff McGee of Makai Marine. Him and Rory explore the importance in transporting crude and refined products using the tanker market. The discussion covers the various types of tankers, the role of ship brokers in chartering, and the dynamics of freight rates influenced by supply and demand. Additionally, the conversation highlights major trade routes and the significance of the Baltic Exchange in benchmarking freight rates, providing a comprehensive overview of the tanker market's complexities and challenges. In this conversation, Jeff discusses the complexities of the tanker market, focusing on the World Scale and Time Charter Equivalent metrics that help standardize freight rates. He explains how oil market dynamics, including geopolitical risks and bunker costs, influence tanker operations and freight rates. The discussion also delves into the concept of the 'dark fleet,' a shadow market that operates under different conditions than the mainstream tanker market, highlighting its inefficiencies and potential impacts on global shipping.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, host Rory speaks with Tamas Varga, a seasoned oil market analyst from PVM Oil Associates, about the current state of the oil market. They discuss the complexities of oil demand, particularly focusing on macroeconomic indicators, the impact of geopolitical tensions, and the evolving dynamics within OPEC. Tamas shares insights on the contradictory signals in the market, the role of Chinese demand, and the resilience of European oil consumption amidst various challenges. The conversation also delves into the intricacies of crude oil futures and the implications of OPEC's production strategies on global oil prices.

Mark Rossano connects with Rory and discusses the complexities of the oil and gas market, focusing on price volatility, OPEC's production strategies, and the geopolitical implications of Iran and Russia's oil exports. He emphasizes the importance of diesel in the economy and the impact of EU sanctions on global oil flows. The conversation provides insights into the current state of the energy sector and the challenges faced by major oil-producing countries. In this conversation, Mark Rossano discusses the dynamics of the crude market, the implications of tariffs on trade, and the current state of the refining industry. He highlights the challenges faced by Europe in energy procurement, the ongoing trade tensions between China and the US, and the impact of these factors on global supply chains. Rossano also delves into the intricacies of diesel and gasoline demand, emphasizing the need for refiners to adapt to changing market conditions.

OGU's new host, Rory Johnston, welcomes in Adi Imsirovic to delve into the complexities of the oil trading industry, exploring Adi's extensive background in both academia and commercial trading. They discuss the current challenges faced by OPEC, the impact of tariffs on oil demand, and the shifting dynamics of the energy market, particularly in light of the growing influence of electric vehicles. The conversation also touches on the supply-demand balance and long-term projections for oil demand, highlighting the uncertainties and volatility in the market. In this conversation, Adi discusses the future of oil demand, emphasizing that despite a predicted decline, the oil market will remain vibrant for the next two decades. He highlights the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the US, on energy security and market dynamics. The discussion also delves into market structures, specifically the concepts of Contango and Backwardation, and their implications for traders. Adi expresses concerns about potential risks in the oil market, including the possibility of a price war initiated by Saudi Arabia. Finally, he shares insights on US production and rig counts, emphasizing the importance of efficiency in shale production.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Dr. Robert E. Brooks discusses the evolution of the LNG market, the role of RBAC in energy modeling, and the current dynamics of global energy supply, particularly focusing on the relationship between the U.S. and China regarding LNG exports. Dr. Brooks highlights the significant changes in the LNG industry over the years, the impact of geopolitical factors, and the future outlook for LNG contracts amidst evolving market conditions. In this conversation, Robert E Brooks discusses the complexities of global shipping routes, particularly focusing on the Panama Canal and the Red Sea, and their implications for natural gas shipments. He provides insights into the current state of natural gas supply and demand, forecasting trends, and the impact of data centers on energy consumption. Brooks also addresses the risks and opportunities within the natural gas market, including geopolitical factors stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the evolving landscape of energy production and consumption in Europe.

Tony Greer interviews Brian Rainsborough and Chris Sembritzky from Renaissance Energy Africa about their exciting oil exploration efforts in Namibia. They discuss the significance of drilling one of the largest onshore wells in history, the geological challenges and potential of the region, and the economic viability of their operations. The conversation also covers the infrastructure in Namibia, market strategies for oil export, and the future prospects of expanding their operations into Angola. In this conversation, Brian and Chris discuss the unique opportunities and challenges in oil exploration in Namibia. They highlight the importance of community engagement, regulatory support, and innovative technical approaches in their exploration efforts. The conversation also covers the company's structure, financial insights, and future goals, emphasizing their commitment to making a positive impact in the regions they operate in.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Patrick De Haan, Lead Petroleum Analyst at GasBuddy, discusses his career journey and the role of GasBuddy in tracking gas prices. He delves into the impact of energy policies on oil prices, the dynamics of OPEC's production decisions, and the forecast for future gas prices. The conversation also covers regional differences in gas prices across the U.S., the implications of refining capacity, and consumer behavior regarding gas purchases. Patrick emphasizes the importance of being aware of gas prices and the potential for savings through the GasBuddy app, while also touching on investment opportunities in the energy sector.

Josef Schachter, President of Schachter Energy Research Services, provides insights into the oil market and Canadian energy sector. He discusses the impact of US tariffs on Canadian oil, noting that the weakened Canadian dollar can offset some of the tariff's impact, and that the US Midwest relies on Canadian heavy crude due to quality issues with Mexican oil and restrictions on Venezuelan imports. Schachter expresses optimism about buying opportunities in Canadian energy stocks, suggesting the market is bottoming out and forecasting $90 oil within a year. He emphasizes the importance of LNG potential for both the US and Canada and identifies value in companies involved in natural gas production and transportation. Schachter also touches on the political landscape in Canada and its potential effects on the energy industry, and advocates for investors to take advantage of fear in the market to invest in undervalued energy companies.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Ian Wagner sits in for Tony Greer and interviews Steve Sinos, managing partner at Blue Lacy Advisors, about the intricacies of risk management in the energy sector. They discuss the importance of understanding commodity risk, the dynamics of oil and crude tariffs, insights into the LNG market, and the volatility of WTI prices. Sinos emphasizes the need for a detailed analysis of market drivers and the significance of being proactive in risk management strategies. The conversation also touches on future catalysts that could impact the energy landscape.

Tony Greer and Robert Connors delve into the current state of the energy markets, exploring the impact of political changes, trends in oil and natural gas prices, and the future of uranium and nuclear energy. Connors shares his insights on the importance of returns on capital in the energy sector and discusses the evolution of his business, Crude Chronicles, emphasizing the value of independent analysis in a rapidly changing market landscape. In this conversation, Robert Connors discusses the importance of building a long-term brand in the energy market, emphasizing the need for consistency in content creation. He explores the role of AI in data analysis and the future of electric vehicles, while also highlighting the refining sector as a promising area for investment. Connors shares insights on market cycles, explaining how energy markets move in waves and the significance of understanding these trends for successful investing.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Dan Romito shares his journey from NASDAQ to Pickering Energy Partners, discussing the challenges and opportunities within the energy sector. He emphasizes the importance of understanding ESG, the need for better representation of the energy industry, and the impact of political changes on energy policy. Romito also highlights the critical role of resource management, particularly water, in the future of energy production and economic competitiveness. In this conversation, Dan Romito discusses the intricate relationship between the oil and gas industry and environmental stewardship, emphasizing that a flourishing oil and gas sector is essential for sustainable environmental practices. He critiques the oversimplification of energy sources, particularly the reliance on renewables like wind and solar, and highlights the significant land use and geopolitical implications of these technologies. The discussion also covers the potential of nuclear energy as a modern solution and the role of natural gas as a bridge fuel in achieving decarbonization goals. Romito stresses the importance of economic considerations in energy policy and the need for a more nuanced understanding of energy sources in the context of political dynamics.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Joe DeLaura, a global energy strategist at Rabobank, shares insights into his career in the oil industry and discusses the current dynamics of the oil market. He highlights the static nature of oil prices, the long-term trends in oil consumption, and the impact of geopolitical factors on market stability. Joe also delves into the refinery dynamics, the natural gas market, and the future of LNG, emphasizing the importance of understanding these trends for strategic decision-making in energy investments. In this conversation, Joe DeLaura and Tony Greer discuss various aspects of the energy market, focusing on hedging strategies, the importance of power markets, and the role of nuclear energy in the transition to renewable sources. They explore the challenges faced by ERCOT and the implications of policy changes on electric vehicles and diesel demand. The discussion emphasizes the need for a diversified energy portfolio and the importance of upgrading infrastructure to meet future energy demands.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up podcast, Tony Greer interviews John Johnston, a veteran oil trader with nearly 50 years of experience. Johnston shares insights into his career, the evolution of oil trading, and the dynamics of the market. He discusses the strategies he employed, the impact of technology on trading, and the changing landscape of the oil market over the decades. The conversation highlights the challenges and excitement of trading in the oil pits, as well as the importance of risk management and adapting to new market conditions. In this conversation, the evolution of trading from traditional methods to algorithmic trading is explored, highlighting the challenges faced by individual traders in the current market landscape. The discussion then shifts to the current state of the oil market, analyzing trends, demand, and pricing dynamics. Finally, the conversation delves into the journey of transitioning to financial journalism, emphasizing the importance of clear communication and market insights in writing. You can follow John's work via his Substack at https://jj745.substack.com/

Tony Greer and Josh Young of Bison Interests discuss the current state of the oil market, focusing on the downtrend in crude oil prices and the impact of geopolitical events. They analyze OPEC's strategies and the implications of political changes on energy policy, particularly with the potential return of the Trump administration. The discussion also covers the future of oil services and the refining sector, highlighting the challenges and opportunities within these industries. In this conversation, Josh and Tony delve into the complexities of oil valuation, geopolitical risks affecting supply, and the dynamics of small cap E&Ps. They discuss the bullish outlook for natural gas, the potential for price spikes in oil, and the overall market sentiment. The conversation highlights the mispricing of oil, the impact of geopolitical events, and the opportunities within the energy sector, particularly in natural gas and small cap EMPs.

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, Tony Greer speaks with Brian Pieri, founder of energyrogue.com, about the current state of the energy market following the recent US Presidential election. They discuss market reactions, predictions for oil and natural gas, and insights into various sectors within the energy industry, including which sides of the sector might benefit most under a second Trump administration. Brian shares his experiences and the evolution of his company, Energy Rogue, while emphasizing the importance of data analysis in making informed trading decisions. The conversation concludes with thoughts on the future of energy and the role of technology in the sector.

Mark Rossano, founder and CEO of C6 Capital Holdings, shares his extensive background in the energy sector and provides insights into the current state of oil and gas markets. Mark and Tony discuss the dynamics of supply and demand, geopolitical influences, and the future of LNG and natural gas. Mark also shares some thoughts on where he is allocating capital within the energy space. He touches on the impact of political changes on the oil industry, the role of renewable energy, and investment strategies in the energy market. He concludes with thoughts on the resurgence of nuclear energy and the implications of AI on power demand.

Tony Greer and Mark LaCour of OGGN discuss their new partnership in the oil and gas podcasting space. They explore the growth of oil and gas podcasts, the impact of political changes on oil prices, and the future demand for energy, particularly in relation to technology and emerging industries like marijuana cultivation. The discussion highlights the importance of collaboration and sharing insights within the industry to provide valuable content to listeners.

Joseph Schachter, publisher of the Schachter Energy Report, discusses the launch of the report and the Catch the Energy Conference. He explains that the report provides in-depth analysis of energy companies, including quarterly reviews, issues of concern, and insider selling. The report also covers macro trends in the energy sector. Schachter highlights the importance of individual company analysis and the potential for high returns in the energy sector. He predicts a multi-year bull market in energy stocks and recommends specific companies to consider. He also discusses the upcoming webinar and encourages listeners to visit the Schachter Energy Report website for more information. Oil Ground Up is now produced by both Clear Commodity Network and OGGN. We are thrilled to bring OGGN into the fold and look forward to working with the leading group of oil and energy content providers.

RJ Burr, president and CEO of Panex (Panther Exploration Company), discusses his family's history in the oil business and the divisions of Panex. He shares how his family got involved in the oil industry and the decision to start the company. He also talks about the challenges and opportunities in the oil industry, the importance of oil in our lives, and the future of the industry. Panex has made 23 property acquisitions since the market crash in 2020 and currently controls over 100 million barrels of oil reserves. Panex is an oil and gas company that focuses on drilling and extracting oil from existing wells using a unique drilling process. They have successfully drilled and placed several wells into production, with a focus on acquiring reserves and expanding their operations. The company aims to become a major player in the American oil industry and is confident in the long-term value and demand for oil. They prioritize their partners and strive to provide a good return on investment while maintaining transparency and accountability.

Dr. Anas Alhajji, Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors, discusses various topics related to the oil market and energy industry. He provides insights into the driving forces and prognosis for the oil market, highlighting factors such as geopolitical tensions and the impact of voluntary cuts by OPEC Plus. Dr. Alhajji also discusses the Houthi rebels and their impact on the Gulf of Aden, as well as the significance of the Red Sea for oil trade. He shares his views on the equities market, non-fossil fuel energy, and the trading of commodities in non-dollar currencies. The conversation concludes with a review of the European energy situation and the importance of understanding the macroeconomic factors influencing the industry. You can follow Dr. Alhajji on X at @anasalhajji His EOA newsletter for Energy Outlook Advisors can be found HERE The Daily Energy Report can be found HERE

In this episode we step away from the energy industry's market dynamics and get a better glimpse of a niche part of the oil sector. Tony's guest today is Dirk Heseman. Dirk is a Well Plug and Abandonment Engineer currently working in the oil fields of Asia Pacific. In this conversation, we get a glimpse into the business of closing and plugging off-shore oil wells. The engineering of this endeavour is both calculated and simplistic by many means. But with a push to clamp down on the fossil fuel energy, many of these wells will be removed from the production funnel. Does that mean a boom in services specific to abandonment?

In this episode of OGU, Tony reconnects with Rory Johnston of Commodity Context to talk about some of the bigger headlines out of the oil sector the past few weeks. Not only has the Biden Administration reconnected with Venezuela to tap their crude supply, but the sector has also seen a pair of major merger and acquisition deals hit the market. This is all taking place with is a large supply-side tightness in the energy space. Rory shares his thoughts and analysis of these major headlines.

Tony connects with Robert Mullin, General Partner at Marathon Resource Advisor. The two discuss the escalations in the Middle East and their potential effects on the oil market. Robert also shares some thoughts on the intense moves in the crack spread and why the potential for an "echo boom" in the oil markets could present itself in the coming year.

Robert Meyer is a seasoned energy trader with LPS Capital. Through his experience in the sector, he's see the high and the lows of the oil markets. With the recent big moves in the price of a barrel of oil, Rob provides some insights into where the opportunities currently live. He also adds some thoughts on supply which listeners may find concerning.

Tony connects with his old friend, Doomberg, in this latest episode of OGU. TG and Doomberg hash out the recent outperformance of the oil market compared to the general markets this week. What the two see is a line of resistance coming up in oil, but a move past that would have the central banks concerned about another rise in inflation. The two talk about the SPR head fake and how inflationary forces could be coming back with the help of the energy market.

Tony Greer connect with Judd Arnold of Lake Cornelia Research Management, a firm which manages in excess of $100 million of outside capital. Judd talks about his unique approach to the energy, oil and natural gas trade, one which is quite different from that of Tony. The discussion first focuses on upside potential of oil/gas equities weighted to the S&P currently and where the upside potential of that ratio can go when/if value becomes a norm. Judd talks about off shore energy production in-depth and why he sees refiners more of a trade opportunity than an investment.

Tony's guest today is Josh Young, Chief Investment Officer and Founder of Bison Interests. Josh has over 15 years of experience in investment management, 10 of which were focused on publicly-traded oil and gas securities. The two spend quite a bit of time in this conversation talking about the early stages of what, they believe, is a bull market in fossil fuel energy. Josh highlights a number of demand-side data and also shares his thoughts on why he is of little concern regarding oil trade settlements in Chinese Yuan.

In our second episode of Oil Ground Up, host Tony Greer joins a life-long friend in Dave Williams. Dave's career has spanned the energy sector, including a previous career in environmental services which then turned into a career in a smaller, independent oil company. Dave and Tony talk about the current price in oil and what it means for all sorts of companies. Dave also discusses why the major oil producers need smaller, independent firms and why often times a smaller nimble producers are in a much better position than the majors. The two also tackle the energy transition and the physics behind energy outputs, and demand, between traditional fossil fuels and the new sustainable energy options

Welcome to the first full episode of Oil Ground Up with Tony Greer. In this episode, TG welcomes in Rory Johnston of Commodity Context for a deep dive into a new year of oil markets and trading. Rory and TG discuss the crazy volatility in the 2022 market and why 2023 might see similar volatility but for different reasons. The narrative moves from the refiners to production. TG and Rory also spend a lot of time discussing the politicized SPR depletion and the circumstances of which the administration will look to increase the stockpile. Rory is a data-first, visualization-forward commodity market researcher specializing in the oil & gas industry. His newsletter can be found at https://www.commoditycontext.com/

Today Clear Commodity Network launches a new podcast series on the global oil and gas markets. "The Oil Ground Up" is hosted by TG Macro Founder and The Morning Navigator financial newsletter author, Tony Greer. Tony founded TG Macro in August of 2016 to create an independent research firm where he could combine 25 years in trading and 15 years writing a daily newsletter into one analytical platform. The Oil Ground Up podcast is Tony's way of expanding his insights into the global energy markets. Listeners will take a glimpse into the ecosystem of oil and gas, one which expands beyond the price movements of the resource, and into the everyday lives of the consumer. Today, we begin the journey.