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Jeffrey's team is at it again. This time, they (and Jonathan McDowell!) caught an unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt and have now caught what appears to be a second unannounced (and failed) Iranian space launch attempt. The failed launch detection was covered by Zachary Cohen and Oren Liebermann at CNN, who were kind enough to get the Pentagon to confirm that the first launch did, in fact, fail. We're still waiting to hear about that second one though... Jeffrey and Scott walk through Iran's textbook space launch preparations, how Jeffrey's team tracked the preparation and launch, and how one assesses that a rocket flight failed in absence of a big, obvious explosion. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.
North Korea has been active the past few weeks, launching a set of cruise missiles (probably just coastal defense systems) and a separate set of ballistic missiles (which look like stretched KN23 short-range ballistic missiles) a few days later. But these events were received very differently by the Biden administration and analysts. Jeffrey, Aaron, and Scott discuss why these events were received so differently, what the deal is with North Korea's newest short-range ballistic missile system, and what the Biden administration may be getting itself into with its denuclearization policy. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.
North Korea put on *another* parade, during the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea. Kim Jong Un dropped some fascinating details about what the DPRK has allegedly completed, and what they may be working on, including a possible nuclear submarine and intermediate-range cruise missile. Then, he paraded some new missile hardware, including a new solid-fuel SLBM and some new short range systems. And, to top it off, Jeffrey and Dave Schmerler found that the SLBM-test platform in Nampho harbor has been moved for a possible refurb, meaning SLBM tests may be possible in the near future. Jeffrey and Scott try to parse out what the North Koreans have built, what they showed us at the parade, and what is to come this year. For our episode on the gigantic new as-of-yet-unnamed ICBM (nicknamed the Hwasong-16 or the Hwasong-X), click here. For our episode on the October 2020 Military Parade in North Korea, click here. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Please note that any views expressed on the Arms Control Wonk Podcast are the views of individual hosts, and do not represent the views of hosts' respective employers.
After the Iranian ballistic missile raid on U.S. forces in Iraq, the IRGC appears to have accidentally shot down a Ukrainian airliner flying out of Tehran. The Iranian government took about 3 days to admit that it was shot down, initially denying that it was shot down. Prior to the admission, the Arms Control Wonk Podcast slack channel jumped on the case and started a collaborative open-source intelligence effort to figure out what actually had happened and if Iran's denial held water. Friend of the pod Patrick Kerley joins Jeffrey to talk about the Arms Control Wonk Podcast slack channel's collaborative OSINT efforts at tracking down details of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, including tracking flight paths, pulling satellite imagery, and locating videos based on sound cues. Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
“Sicherheitshalber” ist der Podcast zur sicherheitspolitischen Lage in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt. In Folge 20 sprechen Thomas Wiegold, Ulrike Franke, Frank Sauer und Carlo Masala zuerst mit dem aus Kalifornien zugeschalteten Fabian Hinz, der Politikwissenschaft mit Islamwissenschaft zu Raketenwissenschaft kombiniert und am Beispiel des Iran erläutert, wie Raketen und dazugehörige Technologie sich verbreiten und warum das sicherheitspolitisch brisant ist. Danach wenden die vier Podcaster sich dem aktuellen Trubel rund um die NATO zu - Carlo und Rike streiten sich hingebungsvoll über Macrons “Hirntod”-Diagnose und Frank kann zum Schluss nur mit Mühe das Gespräch doch nochmal in Richtung AKKs Grundsatzrede lenken. Thomas ist während all dem übrigens ganz dolle krank. Ooh. Am Ende steht wie immer der “Sicherheitshinweis”, der kurze Fingerzeig auf aktuelle, sicherheitspolitisch einschlägige Themen und Entwicklungen - diesmal mit neuen Drohnen, alten UN-Debatten, dem GI auf Twitter und Störungen des GPS-Signals. Thema #1: 00:02:00 Thema #2: 00:36:57 Sicherheitshinweise: 01:10:00 Unser Shop: https://shop.spreadshirt.de/sicherheitshalbershop/ SicherheithalberLive in der Urania Berlin: https://www.urania.de/sicherheitshalber-der-podcast-zur-sicherheitspolitischen-lage Erwähnte und weiterführende Interviews, Literatur und Dokumente: Thema 1 - Iranisches Raketengeflüster (mit Gast Fabian Hinz) Fabian Hinz, Research Associate, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), Middlebury Institute of International Studies (Monterey, CA) Twitter: @fab_hinz Web: https://www.nonproliferation.org/experts/fabian-hinz/ Arms Control Wonk Podcast: https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/ Raniah Salloum: Deutscher Praktikant entdeckt geheimes Raketenprogramm, in: Der Spiegel, 06. Juli 2018 https://www.spiegel.de/plus/iran-deutscher-praktikant-entdeckt-geheimes-raketenprogramm-a-00000000-0002-0001-0000-000158265217 U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA), 2019 Iran Military Power Report, 19.11.2019 https://www.dia.mil/Portals/27/Documents/News/Military%20Power%20Publications/Iran_Military_Power_LR.pdf Thema 2 - Macron (und AKK) und der große NATO-Buhei Bundesverteidigungsministerium: Rede der Ministerin an der Universität der Bundeswehr München, 07.11.2019, https://www.bmvg.de/de/aktuelles/rede-der-ministerin-an-der-universitaet-der-bundeswehr-muenchen-146670 AKK im Interview: “Ich weiche keiner Diskussion aus”, in: Die Welt am Sonntag, Nr. 46, 17. November 2019, S. 4. Macron Interview: Economist https://www.economist.com/europe/2019/11/07/emmanuel-macron-in-his-own-words-english Ulrike Franke, “Two people separated by a common idea: Why Macron and AKK agree” ECFR https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_two_people_separated_by_a_common_idea_why_macron_and_akk_agree Express: EU Showdown, 18 November 2019 https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1205895/Emmanuel-Macron-France-Nato-news-EU-latest-update Sicherheitshinweise Rike: Neue Airbus Drohne Tyler Rogoway: Airbus's Secret Stealth Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle Research Program Breaks Cover (Updated), The Drive: The War Zone, 5 November 2019, https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/30845/airbuss-secret-stealth-unmanned-combat-air-vehicle-research-program-breaks-cover Carlo: Der GI - General Eberhard Zorn - ist auf Twitter Hier: https://twitter.com/BundeswehrGI Frank: Die VN diskutiert weiter über Autonomie in Waffensystemen Isabel Pfaff: Kein Fangschuss für den Killerroboter, in: Süddeutsche Zeitung, 17. November 2019, https://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/schweiz-kein-fangschuss-fuer-den-killerroboter-1.4685269 Thomas: GPS Spoofing in China Mark Harris: Ghost ships, crop circles, and soft gold: A GPS mystery in Shanghai, MIT Technology Review, 15.11.2019 https://www.technologyreview.com/s/614689/ghost-ships-crop-circles-and-soft-gold-a-gps-mystery-in-shanghai/
Judging from Twitter, the Munich Security Conference is talking about the demise of the INF Treaty. Jeffrey, back in California after his sojourn to Vermont and Aaron revisit INF pods of the past to focus on what really matters: Getting Taylor Swift to cover Nena's 99 Luftballoons. Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic: INF Basing Modes, Asia Edition Pulling Out of the INF Tightening the Screws on the INF An Era Without Arms Control? The INF, NATO, and the MSC The Little Green Men and a New Cruise Missile Russia and the INF: Don't Call it a Circumvention Is Russia Cheating on the INF Treaty? This was the very first Arms Control Wonk Podcast episode! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
The end of arms control, or a sub-culture run amok? In today’s special, live-recorded edition of the Arms Control Wonk podcast, Aaron and Jeffrey talk about the end of the INF, John Bolton's motivations, and the reasons behind the US pull-out (aka the Stormy Daniels). Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic: Tightening the Screws on the INF An Era Without Arms Control? The INF, NATO, and the MSC The Little Green Men and a New Cruise Missile Russia and the INF: Don't Call it a Circumvention Is Russia Cheating on the INF Treaty? This was the very first Arms Control Wonk Podcast episode! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast!
„Sicherheitshalber“ – der Podcast zur sicherheitspolitischen Lage in Deutschland, Europa und der Welt – ist wieder da. In Folge 3 diskutieren Thomas Wiegold, Frank Sauer, Carlo Masala und Ulrike Franke zwei Themen: Erstens, wie ist aktuell die Situation in der bilateralen und multilateralen nuklearen Rüstungskontrolle - und was bedeutet das für die deutsche und europäische Sicherheit? Zweitens, wie steht es um die europäische Verteidigung und was soll die viel beschworene “strategische Autonomie” Europas eigentlich sein? Erwähnte und weiterführende Literatur und Dokumente: Thema 1 - Nukleare Rüstungskontrolle Hans M. Kristensen & Robert S. Norris (2018) United States nuclear forces, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 74:2, 120-131, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2018.1438219 Hans M. Kristensen & Robert S. Norris (2018) Russian nuclear forces, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 74:3, 185-195, https://doi.org/10.1080/00963402.2018.1462912 Oliver Meier (2017) Die Zukunft der nuklearen Abrüstung, Rüstungskontrolle und Nichtverbreitung: Was kommt nach Obamas Ordnungsversuch? in: Hanns Maull (Hg.) Auflösung oder Ablösung? Die internationale Ordnung im Umbruch, S. 35-54, https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/studien/2017S21_mul_hg.pdf#page=37 Oliver Meier (2017) Vereinte Nationen beschließen Atomwaffenverbot. Ein neuer Vertrag spaltet die Staatenwelt, bietet aber auch Chancen zur Abrüstung, SWP-Aktuell 2017/A 54, https://www.swp-berlin.org/fileadmin/contents/products/aktuell/2017A54_mro.pdf Arms Control Wonk Blog (https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/) & Arms Control Wonk Podcast (https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/arms-control-wonk/id872594726?mt=2) Thema 2 - Strategische Autonomie & Europäische Verteidigung Heiko Maas (2018) Für eine balancierte transatlantische Partnerschaft, Handelsblatt, 22.08.2018, auch verfügbar unter https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/newsroom/maas-handelsblatt/2129040 Auswärtiges Amt (2018) Fünf Punkte für eine neue USA-Strategie, https://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/de/aussenpolitik/laender/usa-node/usa-strategie/2129754 Nick Witney: Macron and the European Intervention Initiative: Erasmus for soldiers?, ECFR 22 Mai 2018, https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_macron_and_the_european_intervention_initiative_erasmus_for_sold
The Trump Administration is naming names, confirming what Jeffrey has long said — that the new cruise missile Russia is building in violation of the 1987 INF Treaty is the 9M729, which is known in the US as the SSC-8 Screwdriver. Aaron and Jeffrey discuss Russia’s violation of the INF Treaty, offering a deep dive on the new ground-launched cruise missile and the RS-26 intermediate-range ballistic missile. Previous Podcast Episodes about this Topic: An Era Without Arms Control? The INF, NATO, and the MSC The Little Green Men and a New Cruise Missile Russia and the INF: Don't Call it a Circumvention Is Russia Cheating on the INF Treaty? This was the very first Arms Control Wonk Podcast episode! Support us over at Patreon.com/acwpodcast! Sponsored Links: Our sponsor this episode is ActionKit, a powerful suit of online campaigning tools. https://actionkit.com/wonk