Podcasts about i stephen

In “How Likely is World War III?”, Stephen suggested the chance of an extinction-level war occurring sometime this century is just under 1%. This was a simple, rough estimate, made in the following steps:Assume that wars, i.e. conflicts that cause at least 1000 battle deaths, continue to break out at their historical average rate of one about every two years. Assume that the distribution of battle deaths in wars follows a power law. Use parameters for the power law distribution estimated by Bear Braumoeller in Only the Dead to calculate the chance that any given war escalates to 8 billion battle deathsWork out the likelihood of such a war given the expected number of wars between now and 2100.Not everybody was convinced. I (Stephen) have to admit that some skepticism is justified. An extinction-level war would be 30-to-100 times larger than World War II, the most severe war humanity has experienced so far. Is it reasonable to just assume number go up? Would the same escalatory dynamics that shape smaller wars apply at this scale? Original article:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/PyZCqLrDTJrQofEf7/how-bad-could-a-war-getNarrated for the Effective Altruism Forum by TYPE III AUDIO.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How bad could a war get?, published by Stephen Clare on November 4, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Joe Benton for research advice and Ben Harack and Max Daniel for feedback on earlier drafts. Author contributions: Stephen and Rani both did research for this post; Stephen wrote it and Rani gave comments and edits. Previously in this series: "Modelling great power conflict as an existential risk factor" and "How likely is World War III?" Introduction & Context In “How Likely is World War III?”, Stephen suggested the chance of an extinction-level war occurring sometime this century is just under 1%. This was a simple, rough estimate, made in the following steps: Assume that wars, i.e. conflicts that cause at least 1000 battle deaths, continue to break out at their historical average rate of one about every two years. Assume that the distribution of battle deaths in wars follows a power law. Use parameters for the power law distribution estimated by Bear Braumoeller in Only the Dead to calculate the chance that any given war escalates to 8 billion battle deaths Work out the likelihood of such a war given the expected number of wars between now and 2100. Not everybody was convinced. Arden Koehler of 80,000 Hours, for example, slammed it as “[overstating] the risk because it doesn't consider that wars would be unlikely to continue once 90% or more of the population has been killed.” While our friendship may never recover, I (Stephen) have to admit that some skepticism is justified. An extinction-level war would be 30-to-100 times larger than World War II, the most severe war humanity has experienced so far. Is it reasonable to just assume number go up? Would the same escalatory dynamics that shape smaller wars apply at this scale? Forecasting the likelihood of enormous wars is difficult. Stephen's extrapolatory approach creates estimates that are sensitive to the data included and the kind of distribution fit, particularly in the tails. But such efforts are important despite their defects. Estimates of the likelihood of major conflict are an important consideration for cause prioritization. And out-of-sample conflicts may account for most of the x-risk accounted for by global conflict. So in this post we interrogate two of the assumptions made in “How Likely is World War III?”: Does the distribution of battle deaths follow a power law? What do we know about the extreme tails of this distribution? Our findings are: That battle deaths per war are plausibly distributed according to a power law, but few analyses have compared the power law fit to the fit of other distributions. Plus, it's hard to say what the tails of the distribution look like beyond the wars we've experienced so far. To become more confident in the power law fit, and learn more about the tails, we have to consider theory: what drives war, and how might these factors change as wars get bigger? Perhaps some factors limit the size of war, such as increasing logistical complexity. One candidate for such a factor is technology. But while it seems plausible that in the past, humanity's war-making capacity was not sufficient to threaten extinction, this is no longer the case. This suggests that wars could get very, very bad: we shouldn't rule out the possibility that war could cause human extinction. Battle deaths and power laws Fitting power laws One way to gauge the probability of out-of-sample events is to find a probability distribution, a mathematical function which gives estimates for how likely different events are, which describes the available data. If we can find a well-fitting distribution, then we can use it to predict the likelihood of events larger than anything we've observed, but within the range of the function describing the distribution. Several researchers have...

We have come to the end of our series of mash-up episodes, and what better way to go out with a bang than with an episode like this!An incredibly important topic. That as a man I (Stephen here) am ashamed to say is not taken more seriously… We have had a number of female health specialists on our podcast, from period pains, menopause, perimenopause to fertility. And what we found amazing is how complex it all is, and perhaps polarising?Should you take the pill, should you not? Should you take HRT, should you not? Should you eat differently to a man? Should you exercise in the same way a man does? The list goes on…There are many different opinions and the one thing we have come to the conclusion is that not all the information is made easily available to women so they can make informed choices for themselves… It also makes you wonder are we lacking in the full picture, why does women's health bring up so many opposing opinions?So today I would like to bring you on a journey, a journey all about hormones and women's health and what we know from the studies that have been done. We have taken extracts from some of the female experts we have had to date on this podcast, and broken down the potential health risks, symptoms, natural remedies, and medical interventions that could massively improve a female's life and in some cases even prevent much more serious health risks. We hope that after listening to this episode, you, as a woman, can feel much more informed to make the right choices when it comes to hormones. Or to any men listening you gain a better understanding of what a female has to go through and can be better support for your mothers, sisters, daughters, friends, and colleagues. This really is an episode for everyone!Such an important topic, enjoy!Lots of Love,Dave & Steve xProduced by Sara Fawsitt Our GDPR privacy policy was updated on August 8, 2022. Visit acast.com/privacy for more information.

I (Stephen) had an online conversation recently with a friend who had recently experienced a family loss. We chatted and she suggested that the way we think about death changes after we leave a belief system such as the Jehovah's Witnesses, who preach the possibility of living forever. It got me thinking about an episode Celine and I recorded about a year ago when we had very few listeners about the subject of life and death. I listened to it again and realised how much I had enjoyed the conversation and how much Celine's words had taught me. So we've released it again. It's anything but morbid and I really hope you enjoy it too. 

This week's episode has things getting a little crepuscular in the clubhouse! Mark possibly flubs the intro (jury is still out on this!), Stephen has prepared two rants and Ellen requests all of our best silly noises.Editors note: I (Stephen) did in fact edit this episode, but it's really early in the morning so I didn't find fun sounds to put in there. There is a fun sound in the episode though!What Is a Crepuscular Animal? - Jaymi Heimbuch, TreehuggerNickelodeon All-Star Brawl is a bummer - Patrick Gill, Polygon Relaxing Games 0:05:30 Ellen Burns-JohnsonGame DesignGaming‘Optica' is the Mind-Bending Spiritual Successor to ‘Strata' that's Launching N… - Jared Nelson, Touch ArcadeMonument Valley 2Really Bad ChessWhat is Chess 960 or Fischer Random Chess? - Chess.comDoctor Who 2048 Commitment 0:35:00 Stephen McGregorGame DesignUnderstanding What "Commitment" Means in Fighting Games -  LordKnight, YouTubeSo Mew2King just got 3-stocked... -  Hungrybox, YouTube“I'm not fast enough to play fighting games” - Patrick Miller, Medium

This week's episode has things getting a little crepuscular in the clubhouse! Mark possibly flubs the intro (jury is still out on this!), Stephen has prepared two rants and Ellen requests all of our best silly noises. Editors note: I (Stephen) did in fact edit this episode, but it's really early in the morning so I didn't find fun sounds to put in there. There is a fun sound in the episode though! What Is a Crepuscular Animal? - Jaymi Heimbuch, Treehugger Nickelodeon All-Star Brawl is a bummer - Patrick Gill, Polygon Relaxing Games 0:05:30 Ellen Burns-Johnson Game Design Gaming ‘Optica' is the Mind-Bending Spiritual Successor to ‘Strata' that's Launching N… - Jared Nelson, Touch Arcade Monument Valley 2 Really Bad Chess What is Chess 960 or Fischer Random Chess? - Chess.com Doctor Who 2048 Commitment 0:35:00 Stephen McGregor Game Design Understanding What "Commitment" Means in Fighting Games -  LordKnight, YouTube So Mew2King just got 3-stocked... -  Hungrybox, YouTube “I'm not fast enough to play fighting games” - Patrick Miller, Medium

I chirped him a podcast before about having nothing to say, but we managed to talk for over an hour, I Stephen sit down with Stephen and we have a great time proving we have used our penises. Sorry about the shit break in the middle.

In a previous episode, we had a conversation about how to have a great relationship with your in-laws. This is the other side of that conversation—how you can be great in-laws when you’ve got grown kids who are married.  About the guests On this episode, we interviewed Jana and Stephen Guynn, who have been married for 27 years. They have two adult children, Dalton and Quincy. Dalton has been married for just a couple of years and Quincy just got engaged. The Guynns have been marriage mentors to our co-host, Ted Lowe and his wife Nancie for the last 15 years. Ted interviewed the Guynns about how they have navigated the new world of being parents-in-law. Interview with Stephen & Jana Guynn Can you introduce yourselves and tell us a little about you? We’ll have been married 27 years here soon and have two great kids. A 25-year-old son named Dalton and 23-year-old daughter Quincy. Dalton has been married for two years to the love of his life and Quincy just got engaged over the weekend.  Talk a little about what you do professionally. I (Stephen) work for a local IT company and am a proposal response manager. Up until about four years ago, I was in IT sales and wasn’t wired for it all. God opened this door up and I’m enjoying what I’m doing for a change. I (Jana) have been with North Point Ministries for 15 years, most of it working in marriage ministry or production—producing the main services. I’ve recently taken on some duties to shepherd the people who get baptized as well. How do you act as each other’s biggest champions? We are flawed and have struggled but we’ve stepped into being each other’s biggest cheerleaders. It is the best feeling in the world when your kids are employed and are taking care of themselves, working in the groove God created them to work in. We high five each other every now and then. We were pretty purposeful about raising our kids to be fully functional adults. We had people in our lives who were ahead of us and we were able to go to those people for advice. How have you downsized since becoming empty nesters? We went from five bedrooms down to two when we moved into a smaller house. We got rid of two-thirds of things we owned. It was the most freeing thing we’ve ever done. It was difficult for me (Stephen) because I didn’t realize how much I identified myself with what I had. But it is freeing not to have all this stuff. It has freed us up to live our life and it has made us better for each other. Why is it difficult for people to be great parent-in-laws? I think it boils down to trust. You have to trust your children enough to know they are picking a great person to date. From the minute they started dating, we would invite that person into our family. We really believe that if God put this teenager in our family for a season, we were going to love on them. We’ve been intentional about creating an easy space to hang out. I wish I (Stephen) had a dollar for every time Jana told our kids, “God has a plan and a purpose for you.” By instilling that, it causes your kids to recognize that it’s not just about their little box but God has something more out there for them to do. Hopefully by later high school, your kids have a sense of who they are and whose they are. So when they do get into that serious relationship they can step into that clearly. How did you guys talk to your kids about their future spouse when they were growing up? One important thing we’ve seen play out now with Dalton as an adult. He was a very sensitive kid and we used to pray over and with him to thank God for his sensitive heart. As a boy, he thought he shouldn’t have a sensitive heart, but we kept encouraging him that God was going to use that to be a great caretaker and husband to his wife. He loves his wife, Emily, dearly. As you parent and lead your children toward whose they are. And it sets us up to be great parent-in-laws. It starts early. What are the challenges for people who want to be a great parent-in-law? If you have a strained relationship with someone that your child is married to, you have to own your own part in it. As a parent, you can be a benevolent dictator, but as an in-law you just have to be benevolent. You have to want the best for that person, give the most generous explanation for that person’s behavior. What I mean by ‘benevolent dictator’ is that when you’re raising your children, you are in charge of their schedules, their phone, who they’re hanging out with, etc. When they are adults, you just become benevolent and love on them. When they’re adults with jobs, we speak into their life when they ask. But if we’re not asked, we don’t speak into it. When our kids went off to college, we took more of an advisory role with them. We let them experience the consequences when they messed up. It’s important to let them fail and then help them figure out how to move forward. How do you form a good relationship with your child-in-law? You don’t know what your child-in-law might be bringing into the marriage. It may not be all about you—it may be something going on with your child-in-law. The thing there is to try to figure out what’s going on at the heart of the issue with a strained relationship. We’ve raised our kids to have their first thought be for their spouse. They should go to them first with their good news, their hurts. We should always take the back seat. We want to be the easy in-laws. We want to be the ones who make things easy for them. That’s one thing we learned early in our marriage. When I (Stephen) first married Jana, I was still a momma’s boy. The life lesson we learned was how important it is to go to your spouse first before going to your parent. Jana felt second best in the relationship, and that’s not how it should have been. The challenge is to raise your child to leave and cleave. How do you take the route of being the ‘easy’ in-laws? People are inherently selfish. I know I am! It’s something we battle all the time. But as a really good in-law, you have to continually put yourself in your own place. I’d much rather put myself in my place than my son have to sit me down and say I offended his wife. How do you build a relationship with your child-in-law’s family? We were already good friends with Emily’s parents when she and Dalton started dating. We were thrilled, but also treated the situation like they may break up. Thankfully, they never did. Our daughter met her fiancé on a high school mission trip, so we met his parents thinking it wouldn’t last. But we’ve always invited them into our life and gotten along. The challenge in our marriage is that Jana’s mom is in North Carolina and Stephen’s family is here (in Georgia). We always felt pulled in different directions for holidays and we were always determined we wouldn’t let that happen with our kids. How do you fix a strained relationship with your in-laws? If it’s your fault, you have to be the one who goes to them to repair the situation. You need to own your responsibility, and then be purposeful in treating them better than you even treat your own child. I take Emily out shopping or to lunch without Dalton. She loves my son—so why wouldn’t I do everything I can to love on her? Talking about the other side of it. It takes some maturity on the parent’s part to take a step back and realize it may not be about you. Your child-in-law may be trying to manage their own wound and without realizing it you may be poking a wound. Is the challenge more important than the relationship? Ask loving, non-invasive questions to nurture a relationship. Your one simple thing for this week. Stephen: Remember that you’re not only gaining a child-in-law but also potentially a son or daughter and you have the opportunity to love them like that. You gain a potential source of joy. They married this person for a reason; jump on the train with them! Jana: The simple, fun takeaway is to love that child.  Love them the best you can—find out things that are fun for them and do those things with them. Show Closing Thanks for joining us for the Married People Podcast. We hope you’ll subscribe to the podcast on iTunes and leave a review – they help us make the podcast better. We want to hear from you. Share with us on Facebook, Instagram or our site.  If you want more resources, check out Your Best Us.

In this episode, Willie and I (Stephen) talk about my journey to entrepreneurship. From starting out building website on Geocities to managing multiple client projects as a side hustle. Learn the ups and downs along the journey to becoming an entrepreneur.

For the penultimate episode in this week's 5-show-marathon leading to our Live #PodcastDay broadcast, I (Stephen) created my entry for this month's #RubberOnionBattle. Rob kept me company and ran the chat (mostly) where YOU all were, it was great fun! It was supposed to be a 2 hour stream but ended up being 6 hours, what with it being the first multitasking stream and all. I've edited it down do about 2.5 hours and am releasing it in audio-only version as well as a video (which will be embedded below). Thanks again to all of those who came out to the live show and enjoy the replay! Topics & Timestamps: (7:52) Concept (10:26) Script (40:45) Dialog (46:26) Audio Editing (56:40) Animatic (1:30:33) Animation (1:54:22) "Lip-flap" (2:25:45) Inbetweening (2:36:18) Final Screening Check out more of your hosts: Stephen Brooks Rob Yulfo   Preorder Stephen's Animation Tutorial Book: And please Rate/Review us on iTunes  Subscribe on SoundCloud  ... and Rate/Review us on Stitcher while you're at it! (=

SEGMENT EPISODE! After such a long break from these you get 2 in a row, how about that! The theme this week is the broad range of animation and that means quality, quantity, and future projections! We talk about some animation news, answer an Audience Question, of course hit up some Rapid Fire segments, and I (Stephen) review Anomalisa on this episode while the written version and the segment by itself will be up tomorrow! We also have a talkback moment about Deadpool since I saw it last week and I make Rob jealous with my gloating. Finally, I want to give a shoutout to Mukpuddy who saw their new series "Barefoot Bandits" premiere this week, so congrats on that! Click the link on their name to check out the interview we did with them. Preorder my book coming out in July 2016: "Tradigital Flash: 12 Principles of Animation in Adobe Flash" Please Rate & Review us on iTunes   And you can now listen to us out on SoundCloud! Topics & Timestamps: (3:05) "How You Doin" (6:05) Deadpool Talkback (13:39) Mukpuddy's "Barefoot Bandits" premiere shoutout (15:17) Animation News of the Week... (16:07) Cinesite to Produce Nine Animated Movies in Montreal in Five Years (24:49) Netflix Announces Beatles-Inspired ‘Beat Bugs’ Series (34:05) Self-help author recommends learning animation in 3 months (45:26) Sonic the Hedgehog getting a hybrid live action animated feature film in 2018 (52:12) Preview: Next week's episode 121 "Harry Partridge Interview" (55:17) Review: Anomalisa (1:16:17) Audience Question: "I often wondered if there were any cartoons that didn't have an interesting storyline, because the artists involved just put scenes in it that were interesting and challenging to draw/animate, but didn't turn out to be fun for an audience to actually watch?" ~Benjamin Shelley (1:27:42) Rapid Fire!!!!!!   Media Referenced During this Episode: "Beat Bugs" trailer (24:49) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Iu-5mkWii0c   Check out more of your hosts: Stephen Brooks Rob Yulfo And please Rate/Review us on iTunes  Subscribe on SoundCloud  ... and Rate/Review us on Stitcher while you're at it! (=

HAPPY HALLOWEEN! The "Freelance Horror Stories" are back with a part 2 with stories from YOU listeners and even past interviewees, Elliot Cowan and Exit 73 Studios! The point of this episode is to expose you to the bad experiences that animators have in the industry and then Rob and I (Stephen) give a postmortem on the event to learn what went wrong and why... so if in the future you run into a similar situation you'll know what to do! Thank you so much for all your participation, we got some fantastic stories this year and it was great talking with you all! Enjoy the show and have an amazing Halloween weekend! And don't be afraid to share some of your costumes in the comment section below Listen for "who doin' it," joker mask, "you can't make 100 outta 50," and spirit man. Please Rate & Review us on iTunes  And you can now listen to us out on SoundCloud!   Topics & Timestamps: (7:09)   Martin Bell's story (25:42)   Sam Albro's story (36:02)   Kristen Loader's story (1:00:32)   Rob Yulfo's story (1:07:57)   Stephen Brook's story (1:12:11)   Elliot Cowan's story (1:17:07)   Exit 73 Studio's (Chris Burns & Bob Fox) story Check out more of your hosts: Stephen Brooks Rob Yulfo And please Rate/Review us on iTunes  Subscribe on SoundCloud  ... and Rate/Review us on Stitcher while you're at it! (=

I (Stephen) am back in NY on my new Wacom Companion 2 and it actually handled the recording and editing rather well! Rob and I talk 3 trailers, 2 series announcements, 3 audience questions and many more stories in our Rapid Fire segment! Of the trailers, "Peanuts" absolutely blew us away (retroactive spoiler alert). I also take the beginning of the podcast to talk about the Wacom Companion 2 and Adobe Flash CC 2015. You can check out the images under the annotations for a quick look at a weird bug I encountered and the symptom solution in Windows 8.1. CLICK HERE to go to the full blog post & leave a comment! Annotations: (4:54)   Stephen got a Wacom Companion 2 and Flash CC 2015 (23:00)   PEANUTS trailer #3 (39:27)   THE SECRET LIFE OF PETS teaser trailer (49:34)   Kung Fu Panda 3 teaser trailer (1:01:15)   New POWERPUFF GIRLS series with new lead voice cast (1:12:02)   New THREE STOOGES series from Titmouse Inc (1:16:03)   RAPID FIRE (1:29:20)   Audience Question: “We all heard the comment 'It looked good on paper, but the execution was bad/terrible or the idea didn't live up to certain standards or etc.' Did you guys ever come across those scenarios? How did you learn to over come them?" ~Ronald Estid Chaparro (1:34:59)   Audience Question: “Do you guys ever get annoyed whenever someone says something 'isn't original, and thus, why I hate it already?' I'm getting very tired of that, especially from critics.” ~Andrew Kaiko (1:40:02)   Audience Question: “What projects, movies, TV show's, etc. that had you say [it looked good on paper but not in execution]? What changes would you each have like to see happen before the product was finished or after seeing the product?” ~Ronald Estid Chaparro Check out more of your hosts:Stephen Brooks (@RubberOnion)Rob Yulfo (@RobYulfo)Pat Ryan (@TheBadPatRyan)And please Rate/Review us on iTunes & Rate/Review on Stitcher while you're at it (=

Podcast #7 is now up! Sorry for being a day late. You can blame Andrew for that! What a mess of a Podcast this was. You should join for the all lulz! I Stephen voice is a bit off this week. I think he had a cold. Heaps of gaming news this week! Enjoy.