Podcasts about Estimates

(11/17/22) There's a problem with market rallies: The Fed doesn't like 'em. Estimates for Q4 GDP = 4.4% The tell will be Christmas sales; what are valuations telling us? Price must adjust for lower earnings. Things are starting to crack in financial markets; things we see during boom times vs bust times corrections: The Fed's Goal is to pull excess out of the markets. No question the Fed will pivot: But When?? FTX is not a "Lehman Moment." When the Fed pivots, things will not be good; the Fed is scared and wants 1% of workers to lose their jobs. Investing in an uncertain market; are Bonds a safe bet? What the Fed is doing is bond-friendly. SEG-1: Why the Fed Doesn't Like a Market Rally SEG-2: Things Are Starting to Crack in Financial Markets SEG-3: What is a Pivot, Ross? SEG-4: Are Bonds a Safe Bet in an Uncertain Market? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x5_FkIYsEw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2682s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: "The Fed's Anti-Inflation Campaign is Good for Bonds " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoq2ESFdaeI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Wake-up Call for Wall Street?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYB38yoUrtQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2941s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Inflation #ContrarianInvestor #FTX #LehmanMoment #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FedPivot #RossGeller #Friends #Markets #Money #Investing

(11/17/22) There's a problem with market rallies: The Fed doesn't like 'em. Estimates for Q4 GDP = 4.4% The tell will be Christmas sales; what are valuations telling us? Price must adjust for lower earnings. Things are starting to crack in financial markets; things we see during boom times vs bust times corrections: The Fed's Goal is to pull excess out of the markets. No question the Fed will pivot: But When?? FTX is not a "Lehman Moment." When the Fed pivots, things will not be good; the Fed is scared and wants 1% of workers to lose their jobs. Investing in an uncertain market; are Bonds a safe bet? What the Fed is doing is bond-friendly. SEG-1: Why the Fed Doesn't Like a Market Rally SEG-2: Things Are Starting to Crack in Financial Markets SEG-3: What is a Pivot, Ross? SEG-4: Are Bonds a Safe Bet in an Uncertain Market? Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager, Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer -------- Watch today's show on our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4x5_FkIYsEw&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2682s -------- Our Latest "Three Minutes on Markets & Money: "The Fed's Anti-Inflation Campaign is Good for Bonds " is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xoq2ESFdaeI&list=PLVT8LcWPeAujOhIFDH3jRhuLDpscQaq16&index=1 -------- Our previous show is here: "Wake-up Call for Wall Street?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYB38yoUrtQ&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=2941s -------- Articles mentioned in this podcast: "The Big Short Squeeze Is Coming" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/the-big-short-squeeze-is-coming/ -------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to RIA Pro: https://riapro.net/home -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #InvestingAdvice #Inflation #ContrarianInvestor #FTX #LehmanMoment #BondMarket #FederalReserve #FedPivot #RossGeller #Friends #Markets #Money #Investing

COVID dramatically impacted every aspect of our society, however healthcare was impacted more significantly than nearly any other sector. Healthcare is currently in a state of financial and operational disarray. Estimates from the American Hospital Association suggest that over 50% of hospital systems in the country will lose money this year. Healthcare executives (and the government) know the current economic equation is not sustainable. Costs are rising, imbursements are going down, and the American population is becoming more chronically diseased, which increases both human suffering and cost. This coexists with a greater level of public and government awareness around wellbeing and the role it plays in healthcare.Our guest in episode 80, David Flench, understands these coexisting factors well. David is the CEO & President of the Medical Fitness Association. He has spent nearly his entire professional career working and advancing the medical fitness model. As David points out in this conversation, medical fitness is not a health club business, it is a healthcare business (just like any other part of the healthcare system). The organization he leads is dedicated to the proliferation of the medical fitness model, to flip that cost equation on its head through focusing on lifestyle interventions as healthcare treatment modalities.What David and the Medical Fitness Association does is THE path to addressing the Wellness Paradox, in fact they are on that path right now. This conversation with David is a great look “under the hood” about the role medical fitness plays in the future of radically transforming healthcare and how you can get involved in that transformation.Show Notes Page: https://www.wellnessparadoxpod.com/podcast/episode/80 Our Guest: David Flench, MBA, FACHE, FMFA, ACSM-cEPDavid has more than 20 years of experience working in the health and wellness industry. Currently, he is the President and CEO of the Medical Fitness Association (MFA). Previously, Flench was the director of wellness centers and diabetes centers at healthcare facilities in Indiana and Florida. He obtained his Master of Business Administration from Franklin University in Columbus, Ohio and his Bachelor of Science with a concentration in Exercise Science from The Ohio State University in Columbus, Ohio. He also has achieved a range of certifications including Six Sigma Green Belt, American College of Sports Medicine certified Exercise Physiologist (ACSM-EP) and ACSM Level 2 Exercise in Medicine, certified Health Care Manager by the Indiana Hospital Association, and board certified in Healthcare Management as a Fellow of the American College of Healthcare Executives (ACHE), demonstrating that he is committed to furthering the medical fitness industry. Flench previously served as chairman of the board for MFA, and spent time on the Certification, Education, Conference, Budget & Finance, Ethics, and Nominating Committees with MFA.Follow us on social at the links below: https://www.facebook.com/wellnessparadox https://www.instagram.com/wellnessparadox/ https://www.linkedin.com/company/wellness-paradox-podcast https://twitter.com/WellnessParadox

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Theories of Welfare and Welfare Range Estimates, published by Bob Fischer on November 14, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Key Takeaways Many theories of welfare imply that there are probably differences in animals' welfare ranges. However, these theories do not agree about the sizes of those differences. The Moral Weight Project assumes that hedonism is true. This post tries to estimate how different our welfare range estimates could be if we were to assume some other theory of welfare. We argue that even if hedonic goods and bads (i.e., pleasures and pains) aren't all of welfare, they're a lot of it. So, probably, the choice of a theory of welfare will only have a modest (less than 10x) impact on the differences we estimate between humans' and nonhumans' welfare ranges. Introduction This is the third post in the Moral Weight Project Sequence. The aim of the sequence is to provide an overview of the research that Rethink Priorities conducted between May 2021 and October 2022 on interspecific cause prioritization. The aim of this post is to suggest a way to quantify the impact of assuming hedonism on welfare range estimates. Motivations Theories of welfare disagree about the determinants of welfare. According to hedonism, the determinants of welfare are positively and negatively valenced experiences. According to desire satisfaction theory, the determinants are satisfied and frustrated desires. According to a garden variety objective list theory, the determinants are something like knowledge, developing and maintaining friendships, engaging in meaningful activities, and so on. Now, some animals probably have more intense pains than others; some probably have richer, more complex desires; some are able to acquire more sophisticated knowledge of the world; others can make stronger, more complex relationships with others. If animals systematically vary with respect to their ability to realize the determinants of welfare, then they probably vary in their welfare ranges. That is, some of them can probably realize more positive welfare at a time than others; likewise, some of them can probably realize more negative welfare at a time than others. As a result, animals probably vary with respect to the differences between the best and worst welfare states they can realize. The upshot: many theories of welfare imply that there are probably differences in animals' welfare ranges. However, theories of welfare do not obviously agree about the sizes of those differences. Consider a garden variety objective list theory on which the following things contribute positively to welfare: acting autonomously, gaining knowledge, having friends, being in a loving relationship, doing meaningful work, creating valuable institutions, experiencing pleasure, and so on. Now consider a simple version of hedonism (i.e., one that rejects the higher / lower pleasure distinction) on which just one thing contributes positively to welfare: experiencing pleasure. Presumably, while many nonhuman animals (henceforth, animals) can experience pleasure, they can't realize many of the other things that matter according to the objective list theory. Given as much, it's plausible that if the objective list theory is true, there will be larger differences in welfare ranges between many humans and animals than there will be if hedonism is true. For practical and theoretical reasons, the Moral Weight Project assumes that hedonism is true. On the practical side, we needed to make some assumptions to make any progress in the time we had available. On the theoretical side, there are powerful arguments for hedonism. Still, those who reject hedonism will rightly wonder about the impact of assuming hedonism. How different would our welfare range estimates be if we were to assume some other theory of welfare? In the ...

Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

Crypto crash part XXIVV. The lesson is now clear - never put your company name on a sports facility. The Dems going to have a tough day - Biden concedes that a change is coming. Markets are caught between earnings downgrades and seasonal benefits - which way will it go? PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm Up - Election Day! Lots looking for split govy! - Glitch on the server - last CTP may be a problem - All about Musk - All of the time - gotta keep relevant - Employment Report - Can't stop never gonna stop! - New Server Up - lots of dev time on this migration... Market Update - Starting out November on the wrong foot - Who Will run in 2024? Markets trying to sniff out the playbook - China's stock market rally hard! - False hopes? - Incredible - FTX now needs bailout IMPORTANT UPDATE - TrendTracker: S&P 500 earnings are up 2.2% yr/yr in Q3, but they are now expected to fall 1% in Q4 - FactSet - "On June 30, the estimated earnings growth rate for Q4 2022 was 9.1%. By September 30, the estimated earnings growth rate had fallen to 3.9%. Today, the estimated earnings decline is -1.0%." - Earnings are currently expected to return to yr/yr growth in Q1 and accelerate throughout 2023, coming in at ~5% growth for the year (down from nearly 10% not long ago). - Those estimates still seem relatively optimistic/stale if the economy continues to soften as many economists expect. - Estimates for 2023 seem likely to come down further when companies will give initial guidance for the year with Q4 results in Jan-March. Earnings Slowing BUT...... - According to the historical trends during years of mid-term elections - Gridlock on Capitol Hill would be supportive of risk assets. Being forced to compromise serves to moderate the more extreme inclinations of each party, providing a more stable policy backdrop for investors. -- -The data supports this. - US equities have averaged annual gains of 12.9% when a president has had to contend with a split Congress. - This compares with a more modest increase of 6.7% when a Democratic president has controlled both chambers. Stock Trends - Mid-Terms Twitter Chaos - $8 Blue Checkmark - what is the point? - Flip flop - now $8 checkmark waits until after the election - Job cuts - massive headcount reduction (3,600- then a reversal a few days later - Blue Checkmark warning - imposters will get banned for life ---- So fake news and hate is okay, but just don't pose as Elon? What a joke! - Musk wrote on Sunday that, moving forward, Twitter will now permanently suspend impersonators' accounts without warning if they are not clearly labeled as parody. - Advertisers pulling out "temporarily" - - Musk uses it as a great way to make excuse for layoffs - even though layoffs were happening before the advertiser embargo Crypto - And that was that - FTX has liquidity crunch after massive withdrawals - Sam Bankman Fried panics and sells all to Binance - Binance will back all transactions - Remember Fried stepped in on some of the "stablecoin" deals hoping that they could save them - Fried has been called the last resort for many crypto - the new JP Morgan -- - The FTX co-founder is on the brink of a 94% wealth wipeout - Major coins were getting crushed early in the day Tuesday on the liquidity scare - - > Rally with this news - - Seems that this whole industry has been build on hope and greed rather than any substantive math/finance Apple - Finally Succumbs - Taiwan's Foxconn, Apple Inc's biggest iPhone maker, said on Monday it was working to resume full production at a major plant in China's Zhengzhou as soon as possible that has been hit by COVID-19 curbs,

Take a deep dive into the issue of ocean plastics on this week's show as your host, Justin Mog, dips into the topic with Kathryn Anderson, Education Coordinator at the Ocean Legacy Foundation (http://oceanlegacy.ca), from Vancouver Island, BC. The Ocean Legacy Foundation is a Canadian non-profit organization that develops and implements worldwide plastic pollution emergency response programs, with the goal to end plastic pollution. They have just released an updated EPIC Academy, a free online platform providing global education on plastic pollution, cleanup efforts, and solutions for creating plastic pollution-free lands and waters. Check out their new curriculum on ocean plastics at https://edu.oceanlegacy.ca The source of plastic is finite and has potential for highly toxic production practices so it's critical to address the issue since the estimate is that by 2050 there will be more plastic in the ocean than fish! Estimates from National Geographic tell us that roughly 8-13 million metric tons of plastic enter the ocean annually (or about 5 grocery bags of plastic trash for every foot of coastline!). 91% of all plastic produced every year ends up in landfill, improperly incinerated or littered. You cannot see much of the problem because 99% of the plastic is actually found below the water's surface - found on every shore on earth (much in microplastic form that is far less obvious to the naked eye) all the way to Mariana Trench, the deepest known ocean trench - nearly 11,000m deep! The EPIC Academy curriculum aims to provide individuals, businesses and organizations interested in learning more about ocean plastic pollution with an easily accessible and free resource to start their learning journey, with the goal of building a global community working together to advance plastic pollution cleanup efforts, evidence-based policy expansion and infrastructure development to better manage plastic resources. Suitable for ages 14 and up, it includes 10 online lessons pertaining to ocean and land-based plastic pollution, the environmental impact of plastic pollution, and how different communities across the globe can take action managing plastic waste and solving the ocean plastic pollution crisis. The curriculum can be accessed in English, French and Spanish. As always, our feature is followed by your community action calendar for the week, so get your calendars out and get ready to take action for sustainability NOW! Sustainability Now! is hosted by Dr. Justin Mog and airs on Forward Radio, 106.5fm, WFMP-LP Louisville, every Monday at 6pm and repeats Tuesdays at 12am and 10am. Find us at http://forwardradio.org The music in this podcast is courtesy of the local band Appalatin and is used by permission. Explore their delightful music at http://appalatin.com

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: How bad could a war get?, published by Stephen Clare on November 4, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Acknowledgements: Thanks to Joe Benton for research advice and Ben Harack and Max Daniel for feedback on earlier drafts. Author contributions: Stephen and Rani both did research for this post; Stephen wrote it and Rani gave comments and edits. Previously in this series: "Modelling great power conflict as an existential risk factor" and "How likely is World War III?" Introduction & Context In “How Likely is World War III?”, Stephen suggested the chance of an extinction-level war occurring sometime this century is just under 1%. This was a simple, rough estimate, made in the following steps: Assume that wars, i.e. conflicts that cause at least 1000 battle deaths, continue to break out at their historical average rate of one about every two years. Assume that the distribution of battle deaths in wars follows a power law. Use parameters for the power law distribution estimated by Bear Braumoeller in Only the Dead to calculate the chance that any given war escalates to 8 billion battle deaths Work out the likelihood of such a war given the expected number of wars between now and 2100. Not everybody was convinced. Arden Koehler of 80,000 Hours, for example, slammed it as “[overstating] the risk because it doesn't consider that wars would be unlikely to continue once 90% or more of the population has been killed.” While our friendship may never recover, I (Stephen) have to admit that some skepticism is justified. An extinction-level war would be 30-to-100 times larger than World War II, the most severe war humanity has experienced so far. Is it reasonable to just assume number go up? Would the same escalatory dynamics that shape smaller wars apply at this scale? Forecasting the likelihood of enormous wars is difficult. Stephen's extrapolatory approach creates estimates that are sensitive to the data included and the kind of distribution fit, particularly in the tails. But such efforts are important despite their defects. Estimates of the likelihood of major conflict are an important consideration for cause prioritization. And out-of-sample conflicts may account for most of the x-risk accounted for by global conflict. So in this post we interrogate two of the assumptions made in “How Likely is World War III?”: Does the distribution of battle deaths follow a power law? What do we know about the extreme tails of this distribution? Our findings are: That battle deaths per war are plausibly distributed according to a power law, but few analyses have compared the power law fit to the fit of other distributions. Plus, it's hard to say what the tails of the distribution look like beyond the wars we've experienced so far. To become more confident in the power law fit, and learn more about the tails, we have to consider theory: what drives war, and how might these factors change as wars get bigger? Perhaps some factors limit the size of war, such as increasing logistical complexity. One candidate for such a factor is technology. But while it seems plausible that in the past, humanity's war-making capacity was not sufficient to threaten extinction, this is no longer the case. This suggests that wars could get very, very bad: we shouldn't rule out the possibility that war could cause human extinction. Battle deaths and power laws Fitting power laws One way to gauge the probability of out-of-sample events is to find a probability distribution, a mathematical function which gives estimates for how likely different events are, which describes the available data. If we can find a well-fitting distribution, then we can use it to predict the likelihood of events larger than anything we've observed, but within the range of the function describing the distribution. Several researchers have...

Our anchors begin today's show with Wells Fargo Chairman of Global Internet Investment Banking Bob Peck sharing his outlook for tech on the heels of yesterday's Fed rate hike. Then, our Julia Boorstin breaks down Roku's latest results sending shares lower, and Confluent Co-Founder and CEO Jay Kreps discusses the data management firm beating the Street in Q3. Next, CNBC's Dom Chu covers tech names that could be at risk from more rate hikes moving forward, and CNBC's Kate Rooney reports on trading platform Robinhood's quarterly figures. Later, CNBC's Ylan Mui takes a deep dive into PayPal Co-Founder Peter Thiel's multimillion-dollar investment in the campaign of Republican Arizona Senate candidate Blake Masters, and Equinix CEO Charles Meyers joins as shares soar on the data center company's results.

In this episode Scott shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

In this episode Scott shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

Let's face it: Thyroid dysfunction is everywhere. Estimates show that 1 in 8 women will develop thyroid dysfunction—and up to 60% of those may be going around for YEARS undiagnosed. On today's shortie, I'm going to share the five BIG benefits of balancing your Thyroid Hormones (T3 and T4) and how to do it naturally, so you never have to worry about thyroid issues down the road.

In this episode Scott shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

In this episode Scott Becker shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

In this episode Scott shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

Watch video on YouTube Follow us on Twitter @TellurianLNG Tellurian Inc. is listed on the NYSE American under the symbol “TELL.” Find more information at http://www.tellurianinc.com/ Guest: Charif Souki | Executive Chairman, Tellurian Inc. Business Description #Tellurian is developing a portfolio of natural gas production, LNG marketing and trading, and infrastructure that includes an ~ 27.6 […] The post CHAT with TELL | Two minutes with Charif Souki on project cost estimates and economic impacts on large scale projects appeared first on Tellurian Inc..

In this episode Scott Becker shares 6 quick points on CVS Health betting estimates.

In its October WASDE report, the government indicated a reduction in soybean yields, partly offset by a gain in grain stocks.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: Quantifying the impact of grantmaking career paths, published by Joel Becker on October 30, 2022 on The Effective Altruism Forum. How impactful is it to try to become a grantmaker focused on pressing world problems? Encouraged by Nuno's tweet, I spent a couple of hours trying to find out. TL;DR I estimate the expected x-risk basis points reduced for the prospective marginal grantmaker to be 0.12 (with enormous error bars and caveats). Background Epistemic status: I have zero grantmaking experience and haven't even double-checked my numbers; please do not use this post for anything that relies on it not containing serious errors. My estimand is something like: “expected x-risk basis points reduced for the prospective marginal grantmaker doing their best to benefit the most pressing problems at an Open Philanthropy-equivalent organization.” BOTEC Chance of getting a job I make guesses of the number of employers that might be possible to work at, the Open Philanthropy-equivalentness of employers, and the probability of acceptance for any particular job application. Multiplying these factors together gives me a probability of succeeding in getting an Open Philanthropy-equivalent grantmaking job offer at (at least) one of the Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations of 7% (on average). Seems not-crazy. Impact from grantmaking I used recent data from these charts to guess the total longtermist grants given per year by Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations going forwards. The fraction of grants a prospective grantmaker is responsible for is given by the reciprocal of my guess of the number of grantmaker-equivalents at Open Philanthropy-equivalent organizations. (I apologize for phrasing...) Only a fraction of the grants that a grantmaker is responsible for can be counterfactually attributed to them — some grants would make for such obvious decisions that the counterfactual grantmaker would have acted identically. I convert the vibes from this post into a fraction of grants worth deliberating over (on average, 13%). I set the ratio of skill vs. a replacement grantmaker to be mean 1.2 with mass either side of 1. This reflects the fact grantmakers may be better or worse than their counterfactual replacement, but also that on average their being hired implies that they are expected to perform better. Taken together, I get a mean estimate of $5.7m for the Open Philanthropy-equivalent resources counterfactually moved by grantmaking activities of the prospective marginal grantmaker, conditional on job offer. Impact from other paths Linch claims that some fraction of grantmakers' impact comes from things that look like ‘improving all grantmaking processes at their organization,' ‘improving the work/selection of their grantees,' and other paths that I did not attempt to categorize. I add the categorized paths in to my estimate of impact. My mean estimate for the Open Philanthropy-equivalent impact from non-grantmaking activities sums to around $30m (equivalent). ~70% of this comes from improving all grantmaking, ~30% from improving grantees. Units In order to calculate impact for the whole career path, I multiply annual impact by the number of years employed as a grantmaker. Finally, to convert impact into terms of x-risk basis points, I divide by USD per x-risk basis point. Estimates for this quantity come from this comment. Putting everything together All considered, I get an estimate of the x-risk basis points reduced by the prospective marginal grantmaker of 0.12 in expectation. There is a ~27% chance of having a negative counterfactual impact (vs. replacement grantmaker) and a ~5% chance of having an impact greater than expected. For full details, see my code in the appendix. Limitations There might be over- or under-counting issues. For instance, I guess that the averag...

This episode is sponsored by ZenGo.The most valuable crypto stories for Thursday, Oct. 27, 2022.Meta Platforms (FB) reported third-quarter revenue of just $285 million in its Facebook Reality Labs (FRL) division, which comprises its augmented and virtual reality operations. That fell short of analyst expectations of $406 million. Plus, the world's largest bitcoin miner, Core Scientific (CORZ), warns that it may have to explore bankruptcy if it fails to improve its financial condition.See also: Facebook Parent Meta Misses Revenue Estimates for Metaverse Division in Q3, Expects Losses to Grow in 2023New NFT Marketplace Blur Closes in on OpenSea in 24-Hour Trade VolumeKazakhstan to Test National Digital Currency on BNB Chain, Binance CEO Zhao Says-This episode has been edited by Nia Freeman.. Our executive producer is Jared Schwartz. Our theme song is “Neon Beach.”ZenGo crypto wallet is an on-chain crypto wallet with no private key vulnerability, leveraging advanced cryptography called MPC. Get started at ZenGo.com/HASH and use code HASH to get $20 back on your first purchase of $200 or more. Terms and conditions apply. See site for details.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Sea levels across the globe are rising as a result of the changing climate.  Two factors are largely responsible: the melting of ice sheets in the polar regions and the fact that as the oceans get warmer, the water in them expands.   Estimates are that by 2050, there will be over 800 million people […]

After a puzzling call to RIC Home Inspections, The Home Pros discuss the nuances of Free Estimates and what homeowners should expect when a professional is called in to give their expert opinion. Visit Closing Contractor here! To reach out to RIC Home Inspections, visit them online here!   Catch the Home Pros Radio Show online here! 

Max Rieper, Jeremy Greco, and Greg Walker look at the estimated arbitration salaries of 11 Royals to give our judgment on whether they should be tendered a contract. Greg also takes a look at Royals in the Arizona Fall League and we chime in on the new MLB playoff format. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Following last week's debate, Squirrel and Jeffrey share their different takes on the value of having estimated a tech team's planned work when it comes to a retrospective at the end of a cycle, like a sprint or a quarter: Jeffrey sees that checking what the team achieved against what they planned can lead to important lessons about dependencies, inefficiencies, and skills gaps, while Squirrel thinks the risk of the estimates "escaping" is too high, and that the team ought to be able to notice process failings as they go without the "crutch" of estimates. SHOW LINKS: - LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dsquirrel_my-friends-at-cto-craft-are-45-right-about-activity-6983761206993899522-raHE - Squirrel Tweet: https://twitter.com/douglassquirrel/status/1578315480472985602 - You're Not So Smart : https://www.davidmcraney.com/new-page-1 --- Our book, Agile Conversations, is out now! See https://agileconversations.com where you can order your copy and get a free video when you join our mailing list! We'd love to hear any thoughts, ideas, or feedback you have about the show. Email us at info@agileconversations.com

Netflix shares on pace for their best gain of the year after adding more than twice as many subscribers as expected in the latest quarter. So what's next for the stock? Plus markets continue to rally as Monday's momentum holds on. Can the bounce be believed?

Strong earnings, easing tension in U.K. markets propel stocks. Also, Goldman Sachs shares rise 2.3% after reporting lower profits but beating targets. After the bell, Netflix reports 2.4 million new customers in the third quarter. J.R. Whalen reports. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Science denialism kills. Anti-vax conspiracy theory kills. This was obvious. But what are the numbers? How many more Republicans died of COVID than might have anyway? A new study has done a rigorous job answering that question, and the answer is grim. Very grim. Links: Wallace et al. (2022) Excess Death Rates for Republicans and Democrats During the COVID-19 Pandemic, Pink et al. (2021) Vaccine endorsement from Republican leaders increases vaccine intentions in Republicans, Allcott et al (2020) Partisan differences in social distancing and transmission rates, KFF poll on partisan gap in COVID-19 vaccination status, Estimates of unnecessary deaths due to unvaccinated adults (Brown School of Public Health)

October 13th, 2022 - In our experience working directly with families and children at-risk, recent years have become a particularly challenging time–and it looks like global estimates are telling the same story. Global Estimates released in September have reported that nearly 50 million people were living in modern slavery in 2021–that's an increase by 10 million people over the estimates in 2016. Listen to learn more. Welcome to The Freedom Story podcast where we bring you our weekly updates, in audio version. For more information, please visit www.thefreedomstory.org. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/thefreedomstory/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/thefreedomstory/support

Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!Go here to get started! https://primaryvision.co/subscription-plan/

The San Francisco Giants' spending is always a hot topic around these parts every offseason. That conversation may be louder than ever before this winter, with the SF Giants coming off a very disappointing 81-81 record after they won 107 games in 2021. The fanbase is restless, the payroll has been stagnant, and there are stars available for the Giants to sign, if only they were willing to do so. Understanding where the Giants stand from a payroll perspective is important if we wish to predict what they will be able to spend this offseason. The Giants have relatively few commitments to 2023 salaries. They owe $73 million to eight players, not including the $22.5M Carlos Rodón will undoubtedly opt out of. That also includes the $5M buyout on the Giants' $13M club option over Evan Longoria. The SF Giants' arbitration estimates, per MLB Trade Rumors, are for $33.3M going to 13 players. The Giants will have the power to negotiate these salaries, and they are not committed to paying any of them if they'd prefer to non-tender any arbitration-eligible player. Add it all up, and the San Francisco Giants are looking at roughly $106 million going to 21 players. This does not include any pre-arbitration estimates for the Giants. And again, they can non-tender any arbitration-eligible player and won't be obligated to pay a dime. But this is a good rough starting point. And what it means for the Giants, in terms of offseason spending, is that they'd have about $56M to spend on 2023 salaries just to get back to their extremely modest range of about $162M, where they've been each of the last few years. So you could essentially sign a couple of $30M per year players and still come in with a very modest payroll. Hopefully the Giants increase payroll this year, but they're starting from a very flexible position and a big offseason for the Giants is more than possible. Find and follow Locked On Giants on your favorite podcast platforms:

Squirrel and Jeffrey have different takes on the value of estimating a tech team's planned work at the beginning of a longer cycle, like a sprint or a quarter: Jeffrey says the discussion of an estimate often leads to insights and better outcomes, and Squirrel says you can get the same results without the estimates. Both agree that sharing and measuring against the estimates outside the team is counterproductive! SHOW LINKS: - LinkedIn post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/dsquirrel_my-friends-at-cto-craft-are-45-right-about-activity-6983761206993899522-raHE - Squirrel Tweet: https://twitter.com/douglassquirrel/status/1578315480472985602 --- Our book, Agile Conversations, is out now! See https://agileconversations.com where you can order your copy and get a free video when you join our mailing list! We'd love to hear any thoughts, ideas, or feedback you have about the show. Email us at info@agileconversations.com

Asia, China is the focus. It has been encountering serious economic issues putting the trajectory of global economic growth at risk. Mark does a really in-depth analysis of economic indicators coming out of India, Taiwan and China. He specially talks about China's social financing, loans and manufacturing. Not to mention China's real estate market that contributes almost 30 - 35 percent to its GDP.Email us here at: info@pvmic.com for a free sample!Primary Vision Network is also offering access to our one-of-a-kind research portal via monthly and yearly subscriptions.Included in a monthly / yearly subscription:The National Frac Spread Count (updated weekly!)Oilfield Service analysis found nowhere else but here!Unique economic updates from across the globe!Bonus Company profiles, commentary and so much more!

While the pandemic may have shielded healthcare providers from intrusive recoupment audits, the auditing break was but temporary. Starting in August of 2021, UPIC, TPE, RAC and other audits started back up and the contractors had a lot of catching up to do. At the same time, the administrative law judges were under enormous pressure to get the backlog of cases completed by the end of 2022. The result? A paradigm shift in how hearings were conducted and the impact that has on outcomes. Senior healthcare analyst and RACmonitor correspondent Frank Cohen will talk about how these changes have benefited providers in getting judges to vacate the extrapolation estimates.  Other segments will include these instantly recognizable broadcast segments:The RAC Report: Healthcare attorney Knicole Emanuel, partner at the law firm of Practus, will report the latest news about auditors.Risky Business: Healthcare attorney David Glaser, shareholder in the law offices of Fredrikson & Bryon, will join the broadcast with his trademark segment.SDoH Report: Tiffany Ferguson, a subject matter expert on the social determinants of health (SDoH), will report on the news that's happening at the intersection of healthcare regulations and the SDoH.Monday Rounds: Ronald Hirsch, MD, vice president of R1 RCM, will be making his Monday Rounds with another installment of his popular segment.Legislative Update: Cate Brantley, legislative affairs analyst for Zelis, will substitute for Matthew Albright to report on current healthcare legislation.

Marc talks with Tone Gonzalez, an expert general contractor, about the problems with the "3 estimate" way of thinking and offers some insight into a better way of finding the right contractor for your project. Marc also talks with home security expert, Shaun Pace, about cutting down on "false alarms" and how his company uses "verification clips" to empower homeowners. Marc also talks with arborist, Shane Kelly, about identifying problems with large trees around your home. Host: Marc Ebinger, Crükus Marketing Agency Guests: Antonio "Tone" Gonzalez Toned Homes AC and Remodeling Shaun Pace South Texas Security Systems Shane Kelly Canopy Tree Service

The covid-19 pandemic starved young brains. Estimates suggest that globally schoolchildren may be eight months behind where they'd normally be. Host Anne McElvoy asks Jaime Saavedra, global director of education at the World Bank, how kids can catch up after “the worst educational crisis for a century”. They discuss the education policies that could make a difference, and why political will is the key to implementing them.Please subscribe to The Economist for full access to print, digital and audio editions: www.economist.com/podcastoffer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The covid-19 pandemic starved young brains. Estimates suggest that globally schoolchildren may be eight months behind where they'd normally be. Host Anne McElvoy asks Jaime Saavedra, global director of education at the World Bank, how kids can catch up after “the worst educational crisis for a century”. They discuss the education policies that could make a difference, and why political will is the key to implementing them.Please subscribe to The Economist for full access to print, digital and audio editions: www.economist.com/podcastoffer Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Estimates suggest that the planet's average temperature could rise by up to four degrees Celsius. From heatwaves and hurricanes to flooding and droughts, the extreme weather this would bring could render certain parts of our planet unliveable. Changes on this scale may leave many people with no other option but to migrate to more liveable parts of the planet. Those who do migrate may have to navigate national borders and a public image that paints migration as a problem that needs to be solved. If mass migration is to be an inevitable part of our future, how can we more proactively approach the scale of the challenge and view it as a key solution to climate-related threats? How can we ensure people driven to migration have agency over their experience and ensure that we build a future that does not exaggerate existing social inequalities?Here, Gaia Vince will set out her manifesto for this era of planetary change. After outlining likely futures for our planet and the changes this will require from countries, communities and cities, Gaia will explore key questions that will shape the future of human geography and explain how we should see these changes as key solutions to build a better, greener and fairer future.#RSAclimatemigrationBecome an RSA Events sponsor: https://utm.guru/ueembDonate to The RSA: https://utm.guru/udNNBFollow RSA Events on Instagram: https://instagram.com/rsa_events/Follow the RSA on Twitter: https://twitter.com/RSAEventsLike RSA Events on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/rsaeventsoff...

In this episode of Syntax, Wes and Scott answer your questions about whether you should use emoji in naming grid elements, how to estimate project times, responsive design tips, animating gradient backgrounds, and more. Linode - Sponsor Whether you're working on a personal project or managing enterprise infrastructure, you deserve simple, affordable, and accessible cloud computing solutions that allow you to take your project to the next level. Simplify your cloud infrastructure with Linode's Linux virtual machines and develop, deploy, and scale your modern applications faster and easier. Get started on Linode today with a $100 in free credit for listeners of Syntax. You can find all the details at linode.com/syntax. Linode has 11 global data centers and provides 24/7/365 human support with no tiers or hand-offs regardless of your plan size. In addition to shared and dedicated compute instances, you can use your $100 in credit on S3-compatible object storage, Managed Kubernetes, and more. Visit linode.com/syntax and click on the “Create Free Account” button to get started. LogRocket - Sponsor LogRocket lets you replay what users do on your site, helping you reproduce bugs and fix issues faster. It's an exception tracker, a session re-player and a performance monitor. Get 14 days free at logrocket.com/syntax. Sanity - Sponsor Sanity.io is a real-time headless CMS with a fully customizable Content Studio built in React. Get a Sanity powered site up and running in minutes at sanity.io/create. Get an awesome supercharged free developer plan on sanity.io/syntax. Show Notes 00:10 Welcome 01:22 Shooting some pucks at the football game 04:06 Should we use emoji naming conventions for our grid template areas instead of just words? Screenshot of Grid question 08:38 How do you estimate a reliable timeline for a project? 12:18 Do you think about sustainable web development? 16:24 What kind of tips and tricks around responsive design do you have? 18:22 Sponsor: Linode 18:55 How would you go about documenting your achievements throughout your career to reflect on during interviews and employee reviews? 23:33 How do you plan long term for projects or goals? Forever Jobless Goals worksheet 28:22 Can you please make a fundamentals episode that only cares about clarifying the terms everyone assume to be well known to even beginner devs? 22 Buzzwords Explained 31:01 Sponsor: LogRocket 32:20 How would one go about animating a gradient background based on mouse movement? JavaScript 30 38:13 Is there any way using the children API to render the close button and menu items in different locations in the menu component? @Luke_lafr come on the show! 42:04 Where should I begin with design systems? 48:10 Sponsor: Sanity 49:24 Is JSON always safe? 55:01 SIIIIICK ××× PIIIICKS ××× ××× SIIIIICK ××× PIIIICKS ××× Scott: The Thorn Razor, Rockwell Blade Bank Wes: Milwaukee 48-22-1902 Fastback II Shameless Plugs Scott: LevelUp Tutorials Wes: Wes Bos Tutorials / Beginner JavaScript Tweet us your tasty treats Scott's Instagram LevelUpTutorials Instagram Wes' Instagram Wes' Twitter Wes' Facebook Scott's Twitter Make sure to include @SyntaxFM in your tweets

Squirrel and Jeffrey discuss various ways to make statements about the future ("this feature will take a week" or "users will buy 20% more if we cut prices in half") and disagree about exactly how valuable they are and how to use them. SHOW LINKS: - Tilted Slider: https://agileconversations.com/blog/dont-add-more-metrics/ - Toyota Kata: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mrother/Homepage.html - Thinking in Bets: https://www.annieduke.com/thinking-in-bets/ - Estimates are Lies: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/09-15-estimates.html - Superforcasting: https://www.amazon.com/Superforecasting-Science-Prediction-Philip-Tetlock/dp/0804136718 - Betting Market: https://manifold.markets Events: - Jtf at CITCON Europe Oct 14th & 15th: https://citconf.com/zwolle2022/ - Jtf at DevOps Enterprise Summit Oct 18th-20th: https://events.itrevolution.com/lasvegas/ - Squirrel live in Vienna Oct 20th: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/10-20-vienna.html - Squirrel live in Miami early November: https://squirrelsquadron.com/events/2022/11-09-miami.html --- Our book, Agile Conversations, is out now! See https://agileconversations.com where you can order your copy and get a free video when you join our mailing list! We'd love to hear any thoughts, ideas, or feedback you have about the show. Email us at info@agileconversations.com

The Inflation Reduction Act provides $369 billion in investments to ramp up renewable energy generation and manufacturing of solar panels, wind turbines, energy storage, and electric vehicles.  Every megawatt of solar power deployed requires 35 to 45 tons of steel.  Every megawatt of wind power uses 120 to 180 tons of steel.   Estimates are that […]

For many dog owners, watching your pet race around after a crow or leap joyfully into a stream is a source of great pleasure...but these natural behaviours all have an impact on the environment. Estimates of the UK dog population vary from 10 million all the way up to 13 million and the number has been rising in recent years, so their environmental paw print is growing. In this programme Tom Heap visits a nature reserve where dogs have been banned from some areas after being blamed for frightening wildlife, damaging rare habitats and adding excess nutrients to the soil via their excrement. He meets a farmer and dung beetle expert, who shows him how the drugs found in flea treatments and worming pills can leach out into nature. And what to do with all that poo - especially when it's wrapped in plastic bags? Meanwhile, across the world free-roaming dogs are having wide reaching effects. Dr Abi Vanak from the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment says the 60-80 million free-roaming dogs in India are putting some native species at risk of extinction. Producer: Heather Simons

Utahns are among the people helping Florida's hardest-hit areas recover... Estimates on the amount of damage in Hurricane Ian's wake range in the billions of dollars...Heidi Ruster, the CEO of the Nevada/Utah area of the Red Cross, is down in Florida helping connect elected officials with Red Cross and other emergency leaders... she sets the scene for us in Florida. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Estimates for costs of Florida's post-hurricane recovery range in the billions of dollars, and FL Senator Marco Rubio says he will reject any federal assistance bill that contains unrelated spending. Boyd Matheson, host of KSL's Inside Sources, joins Dave and Debbie to discuss how much of a role the federal government should play (and pay). Later, D2 accept calls to discuss the issue with listeners.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Our next guest is all the way out of South Africa! Bryan helped build the service department at Best Roofing who was awarded Commercial Roofing Contractor of the Year by Roofing Magazine. He then became VP of the company. Today, he is the Lead Estimating Coach at Sales Transformation Group where he built their service program based on his extensive experience in the industry. If you've been thinking about kick-starting your service program, this is an amazing place to start! You'll be inspired as Bryan lays out his clear-cut tips for getting your service department in gear.

➤ Tesla appoints new board member ➤ Piper Sandler lowers TSLA price target ➤ Citi issues updated TSLA note ➤ Walking through Q3 delivery and production estimates Shareloft: https://www.shareloft.com Twitter: https://www.twitter.com/teslapodcast Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/tesladailypodcast Tesla Referral: https://ts.la/robert47283 Executive producer Jeremy Cooke Executive producer Troy Cherasaro Executive producer Andre/Maria Kent Executive producer Jessie Chimni Executive producer Michael Pastrone Executive producer Richard Del Maestro Executive producer John Beans Disclosure: Rob Maurer is long TSLA stock & derivatives

Employees today are closely evaluating what they are or are not getting from their jobs. Estimates are that disengaged employees cost US companies alone close to $500 billion annually. In fact, Gallup reports that only 15% of employees are engaged. It doesn't stop there. Estimates are that up to 2/3 of leaders are not engaged or actively disengaged. Add all of this up, and the result could be a volatile cocktail that stifles an organization's growth and negatively impacts the bottom line. Given the current state, what can organizations do to create cultures of empowerment and well-being? Let's talk about creating cultures of empowerment and well-being!   ______________________________________________________ Learn more and register for Leadership Above the Grind Mentoring and Coaching Academy. http://eliteleaders.net  “LEADERSHIP ABOVE THE GRIND™ (LATG) and The mentoring and coaching ACADEMY make it possible to reach YOUR LEADERS with the TOP-RATED, CULTURE-SHIFTING support they need to do their best work – AND ALL THAT THAT IMPLIES – amid new and ever-shifting business realities. Whether you're addressing the achievement of new initiatives, DE&I, underperformance, stalled team and/or individual motivation, conflict resolution, or disengagement, we provide the support solutions needed to navigate constant change, uncertainty, and beyond. LATG founder and CEO Rhonda Y. Williams, supports, trains, and develops your “pros” using dynamic, proven, highly integrative, customizable, targeted, and lasting tools. Our resources WORK to unite current employees to achieve success in their leadership roles while honing skills to level up to leadership mastery. The one thing missing from so many excellent organizations is the thing they need most – total immersion leadership cultivation that lasts. We encourage you to click the link below to learn more about our acclaimed positive impact on organizations and how swiftly and engagingly the shift can be made to operating as a genuinely revered, more profitable, and retentive culture of engagement.” Leadership can be stressful. Is it time to STOP the madness? Download the complimentary 5-step formula to reduce toxic stress and reclaim your personal power. http://launchforleaders.com Schedule an appointment to explore The Mentoring and Coaching Academy services: https://stressfreeleader.kartra.com/page/LATGServices  

Eric brings up free estimates and the guys go into more discussion about why free estimates don't really work out. 

This is the one where Heather talks about eliminating the 'I forgots' from your pool build estimates Support the show

For years, the state's Hispanic population has grown significantly faster than the white population. The new census data is the first to reflect Texas passing a milestone in its cultural and political evolution.

NBC poll finds 74% of Americans are saying the country is on the wrong track. Midterm polling update: Democrat Fetterman holds slim lead over Dr. Oz in Pennsylvania. Democrats hate small business: Estimates between 78% and 98% of the additional $200 billion the IRS is supposed to collect is gonna come from small businesses making $200,000 or less annually. Biden Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm is the new Marie Antoinette: If you are living paycheck to paycheck: "You can get 30% off the price of solar panels." Liz Cheney loves the GOP so much, she's going to campaign FOR democrats. Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin tests negative for drugs.Follow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuckSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.