The Insight by Oaktree Capital

What do elevated interest rates mean for private equity? Why is demand for junior capital solutions growing? What is the impact of the current supply/demand imbalance in asset-backed finance? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Matt Wilson (Co-Portfolio Manager, Special Situations), Christina Lee (Co-Portfolio Manager, U.S. Private Debt), and Jennifer Marques (Head of Strategy and Structuring, Structured Credit) discuss topics from the recently published edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters.

Why have liability management exercises (LMEs) soared in prominence? What are the risks and opportunities associated with these transactions? And what factors determine successful navigation of the LME wave? Join Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit), Ronnie Kaplan (Portfolio Manager, U.S. Senior Loans), and Ross Rosenfelt (Managing Director, Opportunistic Credit) as they discuss topics from the recently published Oaktree Credit Quarterly 4Q2024: The LME Wave.

Why have Treasury yields remained higher for longer and what does this mean for credit investors? What are the potential impacts of the historic stimulus recently announced in China? And what is the current outlook for income-generating real estate? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Julio Herrera (Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Debt), Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income), and Todd Molz (Chief Operating Officer) discuss topics from the recently published edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters.You can listen to the December 2024 edition of The Roundup in the previous episode in this feed, or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktree-s-quarterly-letters-december-2024-edition).

Amid a strong U.S. economy and potentially inflationary policies from the incoming administration, yields may remain higher for longer. High-income assets will likely benefit, but investors should avoid complacency, particularly given the unpredictability of macroeconomic factors. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts examine the risks and opportunities in various asset classes, from financing solutions for life sciences companies and signs of stabilizing real estate valuations to the implications of China's stimulus measures and the recent surge in convertible bond issuance.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/december-2024-edition-roundup.pdf?sfvrsn=c6d95466_5).

In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit), Brendan Beer (Co-Portfolio Manager, Structured Credit and Asset-Backed Finance) and Jennifer Marques (Head of Strategy and Structuring, Asset-Backed Finance) discuss topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2024: Who Are the Lenders Now? They examine the current state of the credit markets, narrowing in on the evolution of one growing area of private credit, asset-backed finance. They explore the shifting lender base of this unique asset class, assess how ABF differs from corporate direct lending, and look at several prominent sectors within this broad universe.

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) explore the next frontier of private credit: asset-backed finance. They discuss how major regulatory changes are causing traditional lenders to retrench from the space, leaving a significant financing void. They also look at several other trends affecting credit markets, including the first Fed cut of the cycle, the return of M&A and LBO activity, and the rise of PIK within private credit.You can read the 3Q2024 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/pcq-3q2024.pdf?sfvrsn=89935466_5).

Where are we currently in the credit cycle? Why might issuers be delaying their day of reckoning? And how are investors using demographic shifts to find new opportunities in the real estate market? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Robert O'Leary (co-CEO), Steve Tesoriere (Co-Portfolio Manager, Value Opportunities), Kenya Williams (Senior Real Estate Product Specialist), and Nicole Adrien (Chief Product Officer and Global Head of Client Relations) discuss these and other topics from the recently published edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters.You can listen to the September 2024 edition of The Roundup in the previous episode in this feed, or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktree-s-quarterly-letters-september-2024-edition).

The Federal Reserve's highly telegraphed interest rate cut in September has created a new market dynamic: interest rates are set to moderate, but perhaps not enough to help many companies still facing extraordinary debt burdens. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts, including co-CEO Robert O'Leary, explore various topics related to the evolving investment landscape, including the increasing prevalence of liability management exercises, demographic shifts creating opportunities in the real estate market, and much more.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/september-2024-edition-roundup.pdf?sfvrsn=713e5566_3).

In this special edition of The Insight: Conversations, we're airing an excerpt from the private credit panel held at Oaktree's recent biannual client conference in London on May 15, 2024. Key members of Oaktree's private credit platform discuss how the asset class has evolved in recent years and where it may be heading next. They explore the dramatic growth of private capital, the evolving relationship with traditional lenders, and the expanding opportunities in asset-backed finance.

The disparity between the haves and the have-nots has widened meaningfully in the U.S. economy over the last year. As a result, healthy aggregate macroeconomic indicators have often obscured the weakness building among pockets of the population. In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Wayne Dahl (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) consider how this dual economy is impacting credit investors as they discuss topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 2Q2024: The Dual Economy (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/performing-credit-quarterly-2q2024-the-dual-economy).

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss how conflicting trends in the bifurcated U.S. economy are sending mixed signals and creating challenges for both central bankers and investors. They discuss the potential implications for credit investors and how many companies with unstable capital structures may no longer be able to keep kicking the can down the road if interest rates remain elevated and pockets of the economy weaken.

In a special edition of The Insight: Conversations, you'll hear excerpts from multiple sessions held during Oaktree's recent biannual client conference. Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks does a deep dive into his sea change thesis, members of Oaktree's Global Credit team examine the most significant trends impacting the high yield bond and leveraged loan markets, and Oaktree's Opportunistic Credit team explores key themes reshaping today's restructuring environment.

Oaktree recently held its biennial client conference featuring presentations from co-chairman Howard Marks, co-CEOs Robert O'Leary and Armen Panossian, and many other key Oaktree thought leaders. In a special edition of The Roundup, we've highlighted various topics discussed at Oaktree Conference 2024, including the next frontier of private credit, dislocation in India's corporate debt markets, and the potentially once-in-a-generation opportunity in commercial real estate.

Where are we in the market cycle? Why is it healthy to be uncertain? And what does it mean to actually “be opportunistic”? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), Armen Panossian (Co-CEO), and David Rosenberg (Head of Liquid Performing Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024: Unusually Uncertain.You can listen to the Performing Credit Quarterly 1Q2024 in the prior episode in this feed.

Oaktree co-chairman Howard Marks recently noted that many investors today are feeling “unusually uncertain” about the future of the economy and financial markets. In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) explore the pockets of risk and opportunity emerging in this environment and the potential implications for credit investors. Plus, we've included excerpts from Howard's recent market update to Oaktree clients.

What were some of the biggest surprises in credit markets during the first quarter? Why might global convertibles be set for a rebound? And why do many Chinese equities look more attractive today than they did a year ago? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Robert O'Leary (co-CEO), Armen Panossian (co-CEO), Jean-Pierre Latrille (Portfolio Manager, Global Convertibles), and Janet Wang (Co-Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Equities) discuss these and other topics from the recently published edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters.You can listen to the March 2024 edition of The Roundup in the previous episode in this feed, or read it here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-march-2024).

In this installment of The Roundup, you'll learn what Oaktree's new co-CEOs, Robert O'Leary and Armen Panossian, think about today's investment environment. You'll also find insights about opportunistic credit, asset-backed finance, the Chinese equity market, and more.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-march-2024).

Learn about the next generation of private credit with Pierre-Antoine de Selancy, Cofounder and Managing Partner of 17Capital. 17Capital, which partnered with Oaktree in 2022, is a market leader in NAV finance. Pierre-Antoine explains what NAV finance is, why it has become so popular, and why its growth is likely to accelerate in the coming years.

Learn all about NAV finance, a rapidly growing segment of the private credit landscape, in this explainer, which was authored by Armen Panossian (Co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit) and Pierre-Antoine de Selancy (Cofounder and Managing Partner, 17Capital). They discuss the evolution of NAV finance, the benefits for both lenders and borrowers, and the area's dramatic growth in recent years. They argue that NAV finance is likely to play a crucial role in the next generation of private finance.You can read NAV Finance 101 here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/education/nav-finance-101-the-next-generation-of-private-credit).

Which macroeconomic tailwinds are weakening and potentially turning into headwinds? Why may it now be easier to find a signal amid the economic noise? And what are the implications for credit investors? In the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations, Armen Panossian (incoming co-CEO and Head of Performing Credit), Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Wayne Dahl (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss these and other topics from the recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 4Q2023: The Goldilocks Trap.

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss the “Goldilocks thinking” prevalent in today's markets, highlighting the potential pitfalls and opportunities it's creating. At a time when several long- and short-term economic tailwinds appear to be weakening, they consider the risk of assuming that everything will be just fine.You can read the 4Q2023 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/performing-credit-quarterly-4q2023-the-goldilocks-trap).

What is a “normal” investment environment? What might a recession in 2024 mean for liquid credit? What's happening in life sciences lending today? Find out by listening to the latest episode of The Insight: Conversations with Howard Marks (Co-Chairman), David Rosenberg (Co-Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Aman Kumar (Co-Portfolio Manager, Life Sciences Lending). They discuss topics from the December edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters and consider what investors should focus on as we enter 2024 – and what remains unknowable.

In 2023, credit markets have experienced dramatic swings in investor sentiment, unexpected geopolitical events, and the second consecutive year of rising interest rates. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree experts consider where opportunities and risks are emerging in various assets classes – including high yield bonds, CLOs, and European real estate – and co-chairman Howard Marks considers what “normal” may mean in this unsettled environment.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/december-2023-edition-roundup.pdf?sfvrsn=d67b5166_8).

Special guest Annie Duke (former professional poker player, best-selling author) joins Howard Marks to discuss ideas from her book Thinking in Bets and Howard's memo You Bet! They explore luck, decision quality, uncertainty, and more in this special episode of The Insight: Conversations.

Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) and Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) discuss topics related to Howard's latest memo, Further Thoughts on Sea Change, and Oaktree's recently published Performing Credit Quarterly 3Q2023 in this crossover episode of The Insight: Conversations and Behind the Memo. They consider the implications of the potential sea change reshaping the investment environment, the tail risks building in today's markets, and what it means to be in a full return world.

In the latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Oaktree argues that investors analyzing today's leveraged credit markets should focus less on average risk and more on tail risk, as this segment of the market is currently much more vulnerable than usual. Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) explore the risks and opportunities for credit investors if this tail risk becomes a tail reality.You can read the 3Q2023 PCQ here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/performing-credit-quarterly-3q2023.pdf?sfvrsn=6bf05166_3).

How have credit investors been successfully navigating the volatile interest rate environment? Which sectors currently look attractive to opportunistic credit investors? What are some of the major misconceptions about today's commercial real estate market? In this episode of The Insight: Conversations, Wayne Dahl (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), Robert O'Leary (Portfolio Manager, Global Opportunities), and Mark Jacobs (Co-Portfolio Manager, Real Estate Income) discuss topics from the September edition of The Roundup: Top Takeaways from Oaktree's Quarterly Letters (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-commentary/market-commentary/the-roundup-top-takeaways-from-oaktrees-quarterly-letters-september-2023-edition) and explain what it means to be in a credit picker's market.

We may be in the first act of what could be a long drama unfolding across markets, as companies face the prospect of higher-for-longer borrowing costs and investors adjust to a new environment in which rigorous credit analysis, not inexpensive debt, will likely be the key to generating superior returns. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree portfolio managers look beyond headline numbers and economic noise to identify the trends reshaping opportunity sets today.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/september-2023-edition-roundup.pdf).

Learn about the current state of European credit and the dramatic changes seen over the last year in this thought-provoking discussion with Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Madelaine Jones (Portfolio Manager, European Senior Loans and European High Yield Bonds), and Nael Khatoun (Head of European Private Debt). They consider the challenges created by the end of the easy money era, risks posed by geopolitics and artificial intelligence, and the quality advantage that exists in European markets.

Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit), Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit), and Megan Messina (Head of CLO Capital Markets) discuss topics from the 2Q2023 Performing Credit Quarterly. They consider the current tug-of war between fiscal and monetary policy, opportunities in credit, and what many investors are getting wrong about today's CLO market.

The U.S. economy continues to send mixed messages – but that may be because the Biden administration's desire to keep the economy churning has clashed with the Federal Reserve's interest in throwing sand in the gears. In Oaktree's latest Performing Credit Quarterly, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Assistant Portfolio Manager, Global Credit) discuss the implications for investors, including why this tug-of-war may cause interest rates to remain higher for longer than many are anticipating.

David Rosenberg, co-portfolio manager of Oaktree's U.S. and Global High Yield strategies, and Howard Marks discuss topics from the June 2023 edition of The Roundup. They consider the evolution of the high yield bond market, investor optimism and why this time might actually be different in financial markets.

Oaktree believes the investment environment may be undergoing a dramatic change, not simply a cyclical fluctuation. In the current installment of The Roundup, Oaktree portfolio managers explore the changes we're already seeing in credit markets and consider what may lie ahead. What catalysts might widen the distressed liquid credit universe? How is the life sciences direct lending landscape evolving? How can real estate debt investors take advantage of the trends reshaping the market? Explore these and many other questions, and hear an excerpt from Howard Marks's recent memo to clients.You can read The Roundup here (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/default-document-library/the-roundup-june-2023-edition.pdf).

Oaktree Investment Risk Officer Wayne Dahl explains why economic statistics can tell conflicting stories and what this means for credit investors trying to make sense of today's noisy data.

When a period of easy money comes to an abrupt end, simmering risks typically erupt, as we recently saw in the banking sector. Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Danielle Poli (Head of the Product Specialist Group) explain why they believe more pockets of stress will likely burst as credit conditions tighten – and why this will benefit bargain hunters.

In the first episode of Oaktree's new podcast, Armen Panossian (Head of Performing Credit) and Howard Marks (Co-Chairman) discuss key takeaways from the 1Q2023 Performing Credit Quarterly, including the potential ramifications of the recent banking turmoil, opportunities in private credit, and a possible rise in distress. As part of the discussion, they explore Howard's memo Lessons from Silicon Valley Bank.

Welcome to The Insight by Oaktree Capital