Podcast appearances and mentions of Annie Duke

In this episode, Clay explores the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Drawing from her career as a professional poker player, Annie shares how to separate decision quality from outcomes and avoid the trap of “resulting.” Clay also discusses how our brains are wired for certainty, why embracing probabilistic thinking leads to better outcomes, and the value of building a truth-seeking support system. Additionally, he uncovers tools like backcasting, premortems, and kill criteria to improve long-term decision-making as investors. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:36 - What it means to “think in bets” and how poker can sharpen decision-making. 05:57 - The concept of “resulting” and how it distorts our ability to evaluate decisions. 08:17 - Why good decisions can still lead to bad outcomes—and vice versa. 09:41 - The role of System 1 vs. System 2 thinking in making better choices. 10:44 - How investing parallels poker with incomplete information and uncertainty. 26:29 - How to build a feedback loop that separates luck from skill. 34:03 - The importance of building a truth-seeking group or “buddy system.” 35:02 - The dangers of confirmation bias and how beliefs are often formed by default. 52:54 - How backcasting and premortems can help map out future decisions. 57:16 - The power of setting kill criteria to avoid emotional decision-making. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Annie Duke's book: Thinking in Bets. Mentioned book: Big Mistakes. Related Episode: TIP623: The Art of Decision Making w/ Annie Duke. Related Episode: RWH015: Betting Better in Markets and Life w/ Annie Duke. Follow Clay on LinkedIn & X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining Hardblock Found AnchorWatch DeleteMe Fundrise CFI Education Indeed Vanta Shopify The Bitcoin Way Onramp HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Notes from James:Here's the truth: if my great-great-great grandfather had written anything—just 10 pages about his daily life—I'd treasure it like gold. And I promise, your great-grandkids will feel the same about your story.You don't need to be a celebrity to write something that matters. You just need to be honest. Whether you're sharing how you survived grief, learned to say no, built new habits, or rebuilt your life after failure—your story could help someone else. And it could help you just as much.Episode Description:In this part one of a two-part episode, I walk you through the frameworks I've used in books like Choose Yourself and The Power of No, and show you how other authors—AJ Jacobs, Annie Duke, Susan Cain—infused autobiography into books that went on to change people's lives.I also break down the different types of autobiographical books—from traditional memoirs and mini-memoirs, to autobiographical fiction and nonfiction hybrids—and I explain how bestselling books like Atomic Habits, The Puzzler, and Man's Search for Meaning are all, at heart, autobiographies.This episode is part motivation, part masterclass in storytelling, and part therapy. If you've been sitting on a life story, this is the sign you've been waiting for.Oh, and yes, I'll even give you writing prompts and reflection questions to help you actually start.I also created a book-writing course: How to write and publish a book in 30 days.If this episode gets you thinking, share it with someone who has a story to tell.What You'll Learn: Why writing a memoir isn't about being famous—it's about being authentic How to turn life events, trauma, and setbacks into powerful narrative fuel The 5+ major types of autobiographical books (and how to pick yours) Why adding personal stories makes your writing more marketable, memorable, and meaningful The exact questions to ask yourself before you start writingTime Stamps00:00 Why Write an Autobiography?00:47 The Value of Personal History02:46 Memoirs and Mini Memoirs10:21 AI and Autobiographical Writing17:14 Unique Perspectives and Philosophies21:07 Opportunities Through Writing28:03 Defining Your Mission and Purpose30:22 Reflecting on Life's Important Events38:52 Overcoming Adversity and Difficult Situations45:16 Crafting Your Unique AutobiographyAdditional ResourcesHow to write and publish a book in 30 days.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

SHOW NOTES: On this show…we are attempting to avoid the Certainty Trap by asking, "Are you as right as you think you are?" Have you ever felt so sure you were right about something, only to later discover there was more to the story—or a completely different side you hadn't considered? That moment can be humbling, even a little uncomfortable, but it's also where growth begins. We've all been there—standing our ground, convinced that our perspective is the correct one. Whether it's a debate about current events, a disagreement in a relationship, or simply our interpretation of a situation, we often hold tightly to our beliefs. In this episode, we're diving into the human tendency to cling to certainty, even when we might not have all the facts. We'll explore the importance of self-awareness, the value of considering opposing viewpoints, and how embracing a bit of uncertainty can lead to personal growth and deeper connections with others. So, let's challenge our assumptions and open the door to new perspectives—who knows what we might discover? Let's start by calling out the very human thing we all do: we like to be right. I mean, who doesn't? Being right feels good—it's validating, it's safe, and it gives us a sense of control. But the brain takes it a step further. Scientifically speaking, our brains are wired to protect our current beliefs. We're not just thinking—we're filtering, editing, and defending. This is thanks to something called confirmation bias, which is your brain's way of saying, “Let's only pay attention to the stuff that proves we already know what we're talking about.” Here's a real-life example: you've decided your partner never listens to you. So, every time they forget something you said—ding ding ding—more proof. But when they do listen? You might not notice. Or maybe you write it off as a fluke. That's confirmation bias in action. You're scanning for evidence that supports what you already believe and quietly ignoring what doesn't fit. Then there's overconfidence bias, which is exactly what it sounds like: thinking we know more than we do. Ever found yourself mid-debate, completely certain about a “fact” you read online… only to later realize you misread it or, oops, it was a meme? Yeah, same. Our brains often give us the feeling of being right before we've actually done the homework. And once we're feeling confident, our openness to alternative views tends to shrink like jeans in the dryer. Now, let's turn the mirror inward. It's time for a little self-reflection: Recall a Recent Disagreement: Think about a recent situation where you were convinced you were right. What was the topic? Who were you discussing it with? Identify Your Sources: What information did you base your opinion on? Was it firsthand experience, something you read, or perhaps information from someone you trust? Consider the Other Perspective: What was the other person's viewpoint? Can you understand why they might see things differently? Assess Your Openness: During the discussion, were you genuinely open to hearing the other side, or were you more focused on proving your point? Reflect on the Outcome: How did the conversation end? Did you learn something new, or did it reinforce your original belief? By engaging in this exercise, you may uncover patterns in your thinking and identify areas where you can be more receptive to differing viewpoints. Dr. David W. Johnson with “The Importance of Taking the Perspective of Others.” Found at Psychology Today Certainty Is a Psychological Trap and It's Time to Escape also found at Psychology Today Let's go to the well….Annie Duke explains why being uncertain is a hidden strength  CHALLENGE: Identify one belief or opinion you hold with absolute certainty and actively seek out information or perspectives that challenge it. Embrace the discomfort of uncertainty, and observe how this openness can lead to deeper understanding and personal growth. Remember, true wisdom often begins with the acknowledgment of what we don't know.    I Know YOU Can Do It!

Is your identity preventing you from making a necessary change? The golden child, the one who spent decades climbing the corporate ladder, often stays miserable because they can't separate who they are from what they do. Annie Duke reminds us that even the toughest career pivots are surprisingly reversible, and encourages us to imagine what we'd do with those reclaimed 60 hours each week if we finally walked away. [Episode 94]Annie Duke is an Author, Professional Speaker & Decision StrategistLearn more about Annie:• Annie's Website: https://www.annieduke.com/• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annie-duke/• X/Twitter: https://x.com/annieduke?lang=enReferences from the show:• Your Future Self by Hal Hershfield: https://www.halhershfield.com/yourfutureself• How to Change by Katy Milkman: https://www.katymilkman.com/book• Alliance for Decision Education: https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/• The Decision Education Podcast: https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/podcasts/—-JOIN OUR GROUP COACHING COHORTS:Are you looking to ask deep, introspective and provocative questions about your own life (with Khe and likeminded peers)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apply today⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠—-BECOME A RADREADER:

With a standard deck of cards, there are around 2.5 million potential hands at the start of each game of poker. The key to success is in the decision process—determining how to play a hand, and how much to bet, despite not knowing which cards are in another player's hand. Like in poker, every investment decision includes at least some degree of uncertainty. What lessons can poker teach investors about sizing their bets, managing risk, and making better decisions for their portfolio?  This episode of The Outthinking Investor delivers insights on the benefits of probabilistic thinking, the best methods for analyzing portfolio decisions, and how investors could develop a sound decision-making process for targeting returns - even when facing uncertainty and market volatility.   Our guests are Annie Duke, a decision scientist, former world-class professional poker player, and the author of books including “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit”; Tina Lindstrom, Head of Oil Derivatives Trading for North America at Marex; and Adam Papallo, Head of Implementation Research at PGIM Quantitative Solutions.  Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at thought.leadership@pgim.com, or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor. 

Welcome to an invigorating episode of MorningCoach® with your host JB Glossinger, where we are set to fuel your day with positive energy and inspiration! As we welcome March, it's time to carry out those plans with precision and focus. Today, JB delves into a compelling topic: "Is Knowledge Power?" He emphasizes that while knowledge indeed has the potential to empower us, it only reaches its full potential when combined with action and experience. This month, we're diving into two fascinating books for our study: "The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away Quit" by Annie Duke and "The Dip" by Seth Godin. Join JB this week as he provides insights into rapid learning methods to help you absorb information more efficiently, discover how to identify the skills that complement your innate talents, and acquire financial knowledge to enhance your wealth. We'll also hear from Dr. Paul on anti-aging metrics and learn about managing time better. JB shares his belief that wisdom can be harnessed from the experiences of others, thus helping us avoid common pitfalls. By engaging in active learning, surrounding ourselves with intellectual communities, and applying newfound knowledge, we can truly transform our lives. This episode is a call to action to embrace lifelong learning, surround yourself with a supportive community like MorningCoach, and leverage the wisdom available to make informed decisions. It's time to unlock the immense power of knowledge — tune in and embark on this transformative journey with us!

Annie Duke is a former World Series of Poker champion, bestselling author of Thinking in Bets and Quit, and decision science expert who advises Fortune 500 companies on strategic decision-making.In this episode of World of DaaS, Annie and Auren discuss:Cognitive biases in venture capitalLoss aversion and mental accountingOne-way versus two-way doorsReading people in poker and businessLooking for more tech, data and venture capital intel? Head to worldofdaas.com for our podcast, newsletter and events, and follow us on X @worldofdaas.  You can find Auren Hoffman on X at @auren and Annie Duke on X at @AnnieDuke.Editing and post-production work for this episode was provided by The Podcast Consultant (https://thepodcastconsultant.com)

Rebecca Homkes: Survive, Reset, Thrive Rebecca Homkes is a high-growth strategy specialist and CEO and executive advisor. She is a Lecturer at the London Business School, Faculty at Duke Corporate Executive Education, and Advisor and Faculty at the Boston Consulting Group focused on AI and Climate and Sustainability. She is the author of Survive, Reset, Thrive: Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times*. Uncertainty seems to be more and more the norm. Sometimes, that leads an organization into survival mode. If that's where you are now, this conversation is the roadmap for what to do next. Key Points We default to the assumption that uncertainly is unequivocally bad. Executives are often overconfident in their ability to predict the future and get tied into patterns that reward following the plan. We tend to adopt the first explanation we hear that makes sense instead of examining our beliefs. Make good decisions even when you cannot make good predictions. Avoid attempting to predict the end state. Stop planning and start preparing. People are often most honest when in survival mode, opening opportunity for learning and growth. Ask these two questions: What could break us? What could make us? Resources Mentioned Survive, Reset, Thrive: Leading Breakthrough Growth Strategy in Volatile Times* by Rebecca Homkes Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes The Way to Make Better Decisions, with Annie Duke (episode 499) Help Your Team Embrace Growth Mindset, with Eduardo Briceño (episode 644) How to Handle High-Pressure Situations, with Dan Dworkis (episode 701) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

Entrepreneurs love telling stories of perseverance. But that can be misleading. "In order to succeed, you're going to have to quit the things that aren't worth pursuing," says Annie Duke, author of the book "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away". On this episode, she explains why we should see quitting as a virtue — and how to know when it's time to walk away. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Like so many, my heart is deeply heavy today for the victims of both the Washington D.C. plane and helicopter collision and now, as of Friday night, the tragic plane crash in Philadelphia. Both incidents — as well as so much else going on in my life right now — have led me to start reevaluating my life. What matters most? What should be prioritized? Today's guest helps us, through her impressive body of work, learn how to make decisions, including learning when to quit and walk away from something, be it a relationship, a job, or a goal, for example. We've got Annie Duke here today to talk in particular about two of her many books: Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, and How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Quit came out in 2022, and How to Decide in 2020. Annie is also the author of Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, which came out in 2018; we briefly mention Thinking in Bets, but don't delve deep into it in this episode, though I have read it and highly recommend it. To deeper understand Annie's work, you must first understand Annie — she's now a prolific self-improvement writer, but she is also a former poker player, and brings those decision making skills into her writing. Annie isn't just some average poker player, mind you — she is one of the most successful poker players of all time, particularly among female poker players, and won the 2004 World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. In addition to her mainstream work, she's also written a number of books for poker players specifically, and published her autobiography in 2005. Annie was educated at Columbia and Penn, an active philanthropist, a business consultant, public speaker, and is an expert in decision fitness, emotional control, productive decision groups, and embracing uncertainty, which is an area I feel like all of us are living in right now. Today on the show we talk about why quitting has an unfairly earned negative connotation; the dichotomy of grit versus quit; how quitting is a key decision making tool; how impactful decisions are on our lives; how her career in poker led her to the work she does today; and so much more. Let's kick off February with this great conversation. All by Annie Duke: Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

Send us a textIn today's episode of The Leadership Vision Podcast, Nathan Freeburg and Brian Schubring dive into the topic of decision-making. From personal life to leadership, decision-making is an essential skill but most often uncertain. Drawing insights from the book Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke, the conversation explores how we can make better decisions by managing uncertainty, separating the process from the outcome, and learning from others' decisions.Key Takeaways:Embrace Uncertainty and Make Decisions Based on Probabilities:Leaders often make decisions based on incomplete information, like poker players assessing probabilities rather than outcomes. Embrace uncertainty, make decisions with the information available, and don't get paralyzed by fear of making the wrong choice.Separate the Decision-Making Process from the Outcome:The process of decision-making is what we control; outcomes can be unpredictable. Just like the famous NFL play call by Pete Carroll in the Super Bowl, sometimes great decisions don't lead to great outcomes. It's essential to focus on the quality of the decision-making process, not just the end result.Learn from the Decisions of Others:By observing and reflecting on how others make decisions, especially in high-risk situations, you can build a better understanding of your own decision-making process. It's not just about mimicking others but evaluating decisions within the context they were made.This episode is packed with leadership insights and practical advice to help leaders at all levels improve their decision-making processes. Whether leading a team or making personal choices, these strategies can help you navigate uncertainty with greater confidence and clarity.Resources Mentioned:Thinking in Bets by Annie DukeLeadership Vision Consulting: leadershipvisionconsulting.comSupport the show-Read the full blog post here!CONTACT US email: connect@leadershipvisionconsulting.com LinkedIn Facebook Leadership Vision Online ABOUTThe Leadership Vision Podcast is a weekly show sharing our expertise in discovering, practicing, and implementing a Strengths-based approach to people, teams, and culture. Contact us to talk to us about helping your team understand the power of Strengths.

In this episode, we dive deep into the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, exploring how the principles of decision-making in poker can be applied to leadership in veterinary medicine. We discuss the importance of embracing uncertainty and making decisions based on probabilities, rather than certainties, to improve outcomes in both business and medical practices. Through the lens of veterinary leadership, we explore how making decisions with incomplete information is a daily reality—whether it's diagnosing a pet's condition or managing team dynamics. We break down Duke's concept of “thinking in bets” and how it can help us separate the quality of our decisions from the outcomes, emphasizing the need for thoughtful, strategic risk-taking in veterinary leadership. Join us as we relate Duke's insights to real-life situations in vet med, from handling difficult client interactions to navigating the complexities of team management, all while improving our decision-making skills and fostering a culture of growth and learning. Tune in to hear actionable takeaways that you can apply to both your practice and leadership journey! Submit experiences you would like us to unpack in our Lead By Example episodes here: choosepeoplelovepets@outlook.com  Follow for more:  FB: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61556480229406&mibextid=LQQJ4d  IG: https://www.instagram.com/choosepeoplelovepets?igsh=MTVzZjc4ZHE4MWd2NQ%3D%3D&utm_source=qr  LI: https://www.linkedin.com/company/choose-people-love-pets/ 

Genius decision-making strategies to build wisdom in your everyday decisions. Annie Duke is the author of Thinking in Bets - A book full of genius psychology and poker tips to help you build mental models to make better decisions. Annie is a psychologist studying cognitive behavioural decision science and in her life as a professional poker player she won the World Series. She was even the highest-paid female player in history when she retired. Her psychology helped her poker and her poker helped her psychology. The summation of her lessons are wrapped up in the book 'thinking in bets' and in today's episode I break down my 5 favourite rules and mental models from the book that are worth using in your life. At a simple level, building wisdom is the process of making better decisions. Nothing more. so that's what we're going to learn about today Related episodes 163: Making bets that pay off - Annie Duke - 23rd March 2021 Thinking Fast and Slow - 12th July 2024 Upgrade to Premium:

What are the key leadership insights and skills needed as we move into 2025? In this end-of-year episode, Kevin answers listener questions about leadership trends, challenges, and reflections on his latest book, Flexible Leadership: Navigate Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence. Kevin believes that leaders must move beyond rigid leadership styles to embrace flexibility, adapting their approach based on context, team needs, and organizational goals. He also highlights the importance of mindset, skill set, and habit set for leaders. While skills provide the tools for leadership, mindset ensures alignment with goals, and habit set ensures sustained application. Listen For 00:00 Introduction 00:44 Joining the Live Experience 01:06 Flexible Leadership Book Promo 01:57 Introduction of Lisa Ritter-McMahan 02:59 Soft Skills Leaders Need 05:21 Transitioning from Peer to Leader 07:17 Hierarchical Leadership in Government Agencies 09:00 Highlight from Flexible Leadership Book 11:13 What Excites Kevin About His New Book 12:28 Balancing Empathy and Organizational Goals 14:55 Professional Development: Inside vs. Outside Work Hours 17:30 Mindset, Skill Set, and Habit Set for Leaders 20:14 Importance of Flexibility in Organizations 22:32 Clear Communication in Remote Work 25:58 Kevin's Reading Process for Podcasts 30:08 Memorable Moments from 2024 Guests 33:24 What Kevin Does for Fun 34:48 Kevin's Current Reading Recommendation 36:04 Closing Remarks Book Recommendations Flexible Leadership: Navigate Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence by Kevin Eikenberry From Bud to Boss: Secrets to a Successful Transition to Remarkable Leadership by Kevin Eikenberry and Guy Harris  Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke  On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver  Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman  The Case for Good Jobs: How Great Companies Bring Dignity, Pay, and Meaning to Everyone's Work by Zeynep Ton  How to Work with and Lead People Not Like You by Kelly McDonald  Like this? A Guide to Excellence with Tom Peters  This is Strategy with Seth Godin Join Our Community If you want to view our live podcast episodes, hear about new releases, or chat with others who enjoy this podcast join one of our communities below. Join the Facebook Group Join the LinkedIn Group   Leave a Review If you liked this conversation, we'd be thrilled if you'd let others know by leaving a review on Apple Podcasts. Here's a quick guide for posting a review. Review on Apple: https://remarkablepodcast.com/itunes    Podcast Better! Sign up with Libsyn and get up to 2 months free! Use promo code: RLP  

In today's episode, Kyle Grieve is joined by co-host Clay Finck to summarize key learnings from 2024. We chat about the importance of focus and avoiding confusing noise, data that shows how difficult individual stock picks are to succeed in, why you should welcome disconfirming evidence, the impermanence of seemingly impenetrable businesses, how to close feedback loops to ensure investments are on the right track, the importance of being trustworthy and reliable, and much more! IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 03:11 - Why investors need to focus on the things that matter and how to avoid spending time on noise. 09:19 - Why investors should be aware of the base rates of success of investing in individual stocks (hint, making money is a lot harder than you think). 25:42 - How you can utilize and search out disconfirming evidence to improve your thinking processes. 29:46 - The impermanence of business success and the importance of updating your thinking when new information becomes available. 33:00 - The three sources of investing returns that drive the performance of a stock. 42:53 - How to use punctuated equilibrium to be active at the correct times and inactive at the proper times. 50:52 - Critical lessons on how to close feedback loops for long-term investors. 1:00:29 - How to utilize the "cone of uncertainty" to signal conviction in great ideas. 1:02:49 - Why a great business can still have times of high uncertainty. 1:07:00 - The importance of being trustworthy and reliable. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Listen to Clay's interview with Chris Mayer here | YouTube Video. Listen to Clay's interview with Hendrick Bessimbinder here | YouTube Video. Listen to William Greens' interview with Bryan Lawrence here | YouTube Video. Listen to Clay's interview with Morgan Housel here | YouTube Video. Listen to Clay's interview with John Huber here | YouTube Video. Listen to Kyle's review of What I Learned About Investing From Darwin here | YouTube Video. Listen to Kyle's interview with Annie Duke here | YouTube Video. Listen to Kyle's review of the Nomad Partnership Letters here | YouTube Video. Listen to Stig's interview with Mohnish Pabrai here | YouTube Video. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota 7-Eleven Connect Invest Bluehost The Bitcoin Way ReMarkable SimpleMining American Express Public Fundrise Toyota Onramp Vanta Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Jonathan Lowenhar is the co-founder of Enjoy The Work, an executive coaching firm that helps founders become great CEOs. Over the past decade, Enjoy The Work has supported over 165 founders on their journey to becoming better leaders. In our conversation, we discuss:• The difference between being a founder and being a CEO• Common failure modes for startup CEOs and how to avoid them• The four key elements of an effective go-to-market strategy• A framework for evaluating potential acquisitions: the magic box paradigm• How to find and hire the best people• How to build a repeatable GTM machine• Why founders need to trust their intuition• Much more—Brought to you by:• Pendo—The only all-in-one product experience platform for any type of application• OneSchema—Import CSV data 10x faster• Vanta—Automate compliance. Simplify security—Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-a-great-founder-becomes-a-great-ceo-jonathan-lowenhar—Where to find Jonathan Lowenhar:• X: https://x.com/jlowenhar• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jlowenhar/• Enjoy the Work: https://etw.live/lenny—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Jonathan's background(02:56) Understanding the rhythm of well-run companies(09:20) The founder mode vs. manager mode debate(12:05) Common company failure modes(13:36) Common CEO failure modes(25:25) The magic box paradigm for selling your startup(43:07) Advice for founders on building relationships(49:28) Hiring and building an amazing team(57:11) Types of executives: architect, optimizer, scaler(59:45) Working backward in hiring(01:02:54) Four key components of a go-to-market strategy(01:15:01) Trusting founder intuition(01:19:12) Founder vs. CEO: different roles, different skills(01:20:52) Closing thoughts and lightning round—Referenced:• Founder mode memes: https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/04/those-founder-mode-memes-keep-coming/• Founder mode: https://paulgraham.com/foundermode.html• “Founder Mode” Is a Dangerous Red Herring: https://enjoythework.com/founder-mode-is-a-dangerous-red-herring/• Magic Box Paradigm: A Framework for Startup Acquisitions: https://www.amazon.com/Magic-Box-Paradigm-Framework-Acquisitions/dp/0692778047• Facebook Buys Instagram for $1 Billion: https://archive.nytimes.com/dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/04/09/facebook-buys-instagram-for-1-billion/• Chris Voss on X: https://x.com/fbinegotiator• Who: https://www.amazon.com/Who-Geoff-Smart/dp/0345504194• Brian Chesky on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brianchesky/• Joe Gebbia on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jgebbia/• Nathan Blecharczyk on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/blecharczyk/• 4 questions Shreyas Doshi wishes he'd asked himself sooner | Former PM leader at Stripe, Twitter, Google: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/shreyas-doshi-live• Traction: How Any Startup Can Achieve Explosive Customer Growth: https://www.amazon.com/Traction-Startup-Achieve-Explosive-Customer/dp/1591848369• Adam Grant on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/adammgrant/• This will make you a better decision maker | Annie Duke (author of “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit,” former pro poker player): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/making-better-decisions-annie-duke• How to identify your ideal customer profile (ICP): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-identify-your-ideal-customer• How to get your marketing team to drive more impact: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/how-to-get-your-marketing-team-to• The Five Dysfunctions of a Team: A Leadership Fable: https://www.amazon.com/Five-Dysfunctions-Team-Leadership-Fable/dp/0787960756• The Untethered Soul: The Journey Beyond Yourself: https://www.amazon.com/Untethered-Soul-Journey-Beyond-Yourself/dp/1572245379• Will & Harper on Netflix: https://www.netflix.com/title/81760197• Slow Horses on AppleTV+: https://tv.apple.com/us/show/slow-horses/umc.cmc.2szz3fdt71tl1ulnbp8utgq5o• Aura frames: https://auraframes.com/• Augie studio: https://augie.studio/• Harrah's Entertainment: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harrah%27s_Entertainment—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Guest: Dan Streetman, CEO of TaniumA graduate of West Point who served in Iraq combat operations, Tanium CEO Dan Streetman can't help but compare his business career to his military experience. Understanding huge structures and processes is a crucial skill at both Tanium and in the Army, he says, as are the skills for aligning people around a shared mission.“Before you go on an operation, you write a thing called an operations order ... [and] one of the most important things at the operations order is this paragraph called the commander's intent,” he explains, “which describes how you believe the mission is going to be accomplished and why it's important.”“You may end up doing something completely different. But as long as you understand the mission and the commander's intent, the organization can do amazing things.”Chapters:(01:05) - Election Day (02:44) - Ranger School (06:42) - Parenting and business school (09:59) - Military structures (12:27) - Serving in Iraq (15:59) - Back to normal life (21:37) - Working out (24:14) - Quality sleep (26:37) - Non-founder CEOs (31:35) - Getting the job (35:56) - Earning respect (38:49) - TIBCO (43:40) - Redline (46:37) - Going public (53:54) - Time horizons (58:35) - Free AI (01:03:11) - Whar “grit” mans to Dan (01:03:40) - Who Tanium is hiring Mentioned in this episode: Ronald Reagan, Terri Streetman, Ironman Triathlons, Jeff Bezos and Amazon, Stanley McChrystal, Jon Abizaid, Charles Jacoby, Thomas Siebel and C3, Salesforce, Bill McDermott, Carl Eschenbach, Marc Benioff, Garmin, Mark McLaughlin, Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, World Series of Poker, Amdocs, David and Orion Hindawi, Citrix, Harvard University, Pets.com, Ben Horowitz, Vista Equity Partners, Vivek Ranadivé, Robert Smith, Operation Warp Speed, BreakLine, Bipul Sinha and Rubrik, Mikhail Gorbachev, F. Scott Fitzgerald, OpenAI and ChatGPT, and Google.Links:Connect with DanLinkedInConnect with JoubinTwitterLinkedInEmail: grit@kleinerperkins.com Learn more about Kleiner PerkinsThis episode was edited by Eric Johnson from LightningPod.fm

"You have to, create your own library of Alexandria. And the great thing is you can do it topic by topic. Someone sends you a book recommendation? Great. Buy it on Kindle, stick it in the Notebook [LM], right? You'll get there eventually, but it's part of your searchable database from today because, I've taken it on recommendation from someone I trust." -Rupert Mitchell, Blind Squirrel Macro--This week, Chase interviews his brain doppelgänger and good friend, Rupert Mitchell, of Blind Squirrel Macro. Rupert began his finance career on the sell side of Investment Banking (pick one, he worked there) and also ran the equity syndicate desk in Hong Kong. Rupert began Blind Squirrel Macro as a way to connect with people about investing. His apt tag line is “Macro for Civilians” and this conversation stays on brand. Enjoy all of Rupert's thoughts on space, his thankfulness for the power of a targeted ETF, and most importantly, how to approach A.I. agnostically. We must have Rupert back, because we barely scratched the surface in this episode! --Timestamps:(00:01) – Intro(04:03) – Why Rupert loves the market(06:52) – How Rupert structures his trade ideas(12:19) – ETF providers need some love(14:37) – Early wins can be dangerous (16:46) – Living in Australia gives you an edge (23:40) – Will there ever be a Bloomberg [terminal] killer?(26:53) – Oil (29:56) – Rupert is the new champion for the old book question(35:10) – A.I. can't strip us of beautifully written words(37:37) – It's inevitable that you get trades right for the wrong reasons(40:08) – Be Agnostic about A.I.(46:17) – How Rupert collects dots(55:42) – Plugs --This Episode's Charity:This week's episode features causes close to Rupert's heart: Guide Dogs Australia & Search and Rescue Dogs of Australia. Unfortunately, Rupert didn't slip once, so we couldn't help the best of Australia's dog professionals. But you can by checking out these great charities! --Referenced in the Show:So many ETFS: Simplify's TUA & PFIX, Range's NUKZ & LNGZ, Cathie Wood's Space ETF, & Procure's UFOAI Tools for an informational edge: Harkster, NotebookLM, & FinChatOther great Podcasts/Radio: Commodity Context & Desert Island DiscsBooks: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, Dostoyevsky's The Gambler, Annie Duke's

What would you do differently if you could live for 1,000 years? In this episode of Groove Jams, we're joined by fan-favorite Annie Duke to dive headfirst into the wild possibilities of a much longer life. The conversation kicks off with a controversial babysitting prank that sparked Annie's lifelong fear of death, leading to a lively debate about how immortality could reshape society. Would 80-year-old presidents be no big deal? Would archaeology become the most boring subject ever? Join us as we unravel ethical dilemmas, debate questionable life choices, and find out if Annie can finally conquer her fear of mortality.  Don't wait 1,000 years to tune in—hit play now while it's still relevant!

การประสบความสำเร็จใดๆ ไม่ใช่เรื่องง่าย ในทางตรงกันข้าม การตัดสินใจล้มเลิกเดินออกจากเส้นทางที่ตั้งใจ ก็ไม่ง่ายเหมือนกัน โค้ชหนุ่มและโสภณ แห่ง Aommoney สองน้าผลัดกันเล่าประสบการล้มเลิก (แต่ไม่ล้มเหลว) และหลักการจากหนังสือ QUIT: ศาสตร์แห่งการตัดสินใจ เมื่อไหร่ควรยอมยกธง

In this episode of Grow a Small Business, host Troy Trewin interviews Brad Riley, the founder of Infostatus, shares his incredible journey from starting with just one team member to now leading a thriving team of 15. He discusses the importance of perseverance through challenges and the invaluable lessons learned along the way. Brad emphasizes leveraging online resources and learning from the experiences of others in the industry. Tune in to discover how Infostatus achieved remarkable growth and generated $3 million in revenue over the past 11 years. Other Resources: NPS – An easy way to measure if your customers love you in 21 minutes – use the Net Promoter Score (NPS). And it's FREE. Productivity increases 7%-23%, team engagement up threefold and retention from 5.4 to 9.4 years – why wouldn't you consider an ESOP, Employee Share Ownership Plan. ESOP Subject Matter Expert talks other benefits, costs and time (Craig West) Why would you wait any longer to start living the lifestyle you signed up for? Balance your health, wealth, relationships and business growth. And focus your time and energy and make the most of this year. Let's get into it by clicking here. Troy delves into our guest's startup journey, their perception of success, industry reconsideration, and the pivotal stress point during business expansion. They discuss the joys of small business growth, vital entrepreneurial habits, and strategies for team building, encompassing wins, blunders, and invaluable advice. And a snapshot of the final five Grow A Small Business Questions: What do you think is the hardest thing in growing a small business? Brad Riley identifies that the hardest thing in growing a small business is navigating through tough times and maintaining perseverance. He emphasizes that challenges can take many forms, and what seems tough today may look different in the future. He believes that understanding and learning from both successes and failures, as well as leveraging resources and insights from others, is crucial to overcoming these hurdles and achieving sustainable growth. What's your favourite business book that has helped you the most? Brad Riley mentioned Annie Duke as a significant influence. Known for her work on decision-making under uncertainty, her insights have likely impacted Brad's approach to managing challenges and strategizing in his business. Annie Duke's books, such as Thinking in Bets, emphasize critical thinking and probabilistic decision-making, which are highly relevant for navigating complex business environments. Are there any great podcasts or online learning resources you'd recommend to help grow a small business? Brad Riley emphasized leveraging the internet to learn from others' journeys. While he didn't recommend specific resources, general suggestions include the podcasts "How I Built This," "The Tim Ferriss Show," and "Smart Passive Income," along with online courses from platforms like Coursera, LinkedIn Learning, and Udemy. You can also explore YouTube channels such as Gary Vaynerchuk and Stanford Graduate School of Business for valuable insights. What tool or resource would you recommend to grow a small business? Brad Riley recommends using online learning platforms to build skills, leveraging social media for networking and marketing, and utilizing project management tools like Trello or Asana to streamline team collaboration. Additionally, analytics tools such as Google Analytics can drive data-informed decisions. These resources collectively support efficient growth and operational scaling for small businesses. What advice would you give yourself on day one of starting out in business? Brad Riley advises his day-one self to stay resilient, reassuring that "it's okay, you'll be okay." He emphasizes the importance of perseverance, noting that tough times are part of the journey and that the challenges faced today will look different down the road. His key message: hang in there and trust that things will work out. Book a 20-minute Growth Chat with Troy Trewin to see if you qualify for our upcoming course. Don't miss out on this opportunity to take your small business to new heights! Enjoyed the podcast? Please leave a review on iTunes or your preferred platform. Your feedback helps more small business owners discover our podcast and embark on their business growth journey. Quotable quotes from our special Grow A Small Business podcast guest:   Perseverance is the secret ingredient that transforms tough times into success — Brad Riley Learning from others' experiences can fast-track your own growth — Brad Riley Hang in there; today's challenges are shaping tomorrow's victories — Brad Riley      

Feeling stuck at a creative crossroads? You're not alone!In this episode of the Write It Scared podcast, I dive into that all-too-familiar struggle every writer faces when contemplating whether to push through or step back from a project. Drawing from insights in Seth Godin's The Dip, I unpack the tricky phase where doubt creeps in, and we're tempted to abandon our current work-in-progress for something newer and shinier.I'll share some thought-provoking questions and journaling prompts to help you figure out if you are dealing with Resistance or if it's genuinely time to listen to the creative muse and move on to something else. Plus, I'll point you toward some invaluable resources like Dear Writer, You Need to Quit by Becca Syme, The War of Art by Steven Pressfield, and How to Decide by Annie Duke.Join me for a deep dive into reflection, aligning your decisions with your values and long-term goals. Whether you choose to move forward with your current project or pivot, this episode will empower you to take the next steps with confidence00:00 Introduction to the Creative Crossroads00:42 Facing the Creative Crossroads01:15 Deciding Whether to Quit or Push Through02:08 Understanding the Creative Call03:59 Reflecting on Your Creative Path04:43 Applying Seth Godin's 'The Dip' to Writing05:33 The Phases of Writing a Novel06:43 Understanding the Dip07:37 Identifying If You're in the Dip08:34 Facing Resistance09:26 Journal Prompts for Decision-Making10:11 The Skill of Finishing11:03 Recommended Resources11:43 Final Thoughts and EncouragementLearn more about Small-Group Book Coaching With Write It Scared Have a comment or idea about the show? Send me a direct text! Love to hear from you.Support the show To become a supporter of the show, click here!To get in touch with Stacy: Email: Stacy@writeitscared.co https://www.writeitscared.co/ https://www.instagram.com/writeitscared/ Take advantage of these Free Resources From Write It Scared: Download Your Free Novel Planning and Drafting Quick Start Guide Download Your Free Guide to Remove Creative Blocks and Work Through Fears

Hey! This video is all about how to prioritise when you suck at prioritising. VIDEO TIMELINE ⇢ 00:00 Intro 0:28 The Cozy Comfort of Indecision 2:27 Accepting Uncertainty 4:25 Reccs of The Week LINKS ⇢

In this episode of the Pursuit of Property podcast, our hosts Cade and Scott discuss key insights from Annie Duke's book, How to Decide, emphasizing the importance of focusing on the decision-making process rather than just outcomes. They highlight concepts such as resulting bias, which underscores that bad outcomes do not always reflect poor decisions; memory creep, which points out how misremembering past decisions can lead to faulty future choices; and the role of luck, stressing that even well-made decisions can yield unfavorable results. They introduce the idea of the decision multiverse, illustrating that different choices lead to various outcomes, and outline the three P's of decision making—preference, payoffs, and probabilities—as essential components for informed choices. Join us for an interesting talk about these important ideas! Buy “How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices” by Annie Duke here https://a.co/d/8dxmeBm

Do you suffer from any of these symptoms: Tiredness, stomach issues, dizziness, headaches, joint problems, dry skin or depression? What's interesting is they all can be caused or aggravated by one thing which is really easy to fix. You'll need a glass and some water. Listen and I'll explain. https://www.healthline.com/health/anxiety/dehydration-and-anxiety I'm sure you've heard the expression that quitters never win, and winners never quit. No one wants to be called a quitter. It's the people who persevere who are the winners. Well, maybe. Actually, quitting can be the smartest thing you can do – if you know WHEN to quit. Annie Duke was a professional poker player for two decades and won the $2 million winner-take-all, invitation-only World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. She was also awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. She is the author of the bestselling book called Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away (https://amzn.to/3VgjuRT). Listen as Annie explains why quitting can be a good thing and why it is often the smartest thing you can do.  Who doesn't love a good conspiracy theory. They fuel the imagination. And somehow, they seem to confirm people's suspicion and mistrust of the government. Yet for others they seem ridiculous. So where do conspiracy theories come from? Why do they persist? What is the appeal exactly? And why are most of them usually so easy to refute if you examine them closely? Whether it's 9/11, the moon landing, the Kennedy assassination, aliens or UFOs – there are plenty of them to sink your teeth into. Here to explore the phenomenon of conspiracy theories is Casey Lytle, a psychology and sociology professor and author of the book Debunked: Separate the Rational from the Irrational in Influential Conspiracy Theories (https://amzn.to/4eAnkOR). Why is that some people who brush and floss religiously still have a lot of dental problems while some other people who hardly ever brush never have dental trouble? Listen as I explain the interesting answer. https://www.gumdoc.net/periodontal-disease/mouth-body-connections/gum-disease-in-families/ PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! INDEED:  Get a $75 SPONSORED JOB CREDIT to get your jobs more visibility at https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING  Support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast.  Indeed.com/SOMETHING.  Terms and conditions apply. SHOPIFY:  Sign up for a $1 per-month trial period at https://Shopify.com/sysk . Go to SHOPIFY.com/sysk to grow your business – no matter what stage you're in! MINT MOBILE: Cut your wireless bill to $15 a month at https://MintMobile.com/something! $45 upfront payment required (equivalent to $15/mo.).  New customers on first 3 month plan only. Additional taxes, fees, & restrictions apply. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On a new episode of weekend conversations on the Elevate Podcast, host Robert Glazer and producer Mick Sloan discuss the importance of knowing when to quit. They discuss Annie Duke's bestselling book on this topic, Quit, and key frameworks that can be used to evaluate when it's the right time to walk away. Read The Post Referenced In This Episode - Quitting Time (#450) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Annie Duke - Thinking in Bets by Aidan McCullen

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners. Annie's is the bestselling author of multiple books, most notably Thinking In Bets and Quit. Annie was previously a championship winning poker player, having amassed over $4 million in tournament winnings, won a World Series of Poker Bracelet, and having won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. As if that wasn't enough, Annie also completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn in 2023. Annie joined host Robert Glazer on the Elevate Podcast to discuss learnings from her poker career, how to think in bets, and the importance of knowing when to quit. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

View the Show Notes Page for This Episode Become a Member to Receive Exclusive Content Sign Up to Receive Peter's Weekly Newsletter In this episode, former World Series of Poker champion and author Annie Duke explains how poker is a pertinent model system for decision-making in the real world, a system which blends imperfect information with some unknown percentage of both luck and skill. Annie breaks down the decision-making matrix, revealing how we often focus too narrowly on just one of the four quadrants, missing out on valuable learning opportunities in the remaining 75% of situations. She delves into how our tendency to evaluate only negative outcomes leads to a culture of risk aversion. This mindset, she argues, stifles the kind of bold decision-making necessary for progress and innovation across various fields, from poker and sports to business and medicine. Annie also introduces a robust framework for learning and the levels of thought required to excel in any domain. Finally, she discusses a strategy called “backcasting”, a concept that resonated deeply with Peter in terms of how he thinks about extending healthspan. We discuss: Annie's background, favorite sports teams, and Peter's affinity for Bill Belichick [1:30]; Chess vs. poker: Which is a better metaphor for decision-making in life (and medicine)? [6:45]; Thinking probabilistically: Why we aren't wired that way, and how you can improve it for better decision-making [12:30]; Variable reinforcement: The psychological draw of poker that keeps people playing [19:15]; The role of luck and skill in poker (and other sports), and the difference between looking at the short run vs. long run [32:15]; A brief explanation of Texas hold ‘em [41:00]; The added complexity of reading the behavior of others players in poker [47:30]; Why Annie likes to “quit fast,” and why poker is still popular despite the power of loss aversion [52:45]; Limit vs. no-limit poker, and how the game has changed with growing popularity [55:15]; The advent of analytics to poker, and why Annie would get crushed against today's professionals [1:04:45]; The decision matrix, and the “resulting” heuristic: The simplifier we use to judge the quality of decisions —The Pete Carroll Superbowl play call example [1:10:30]; The personal and societal consequences of avoiding bad outcomes [1:21:45]; Poker as a model system for life [1:31:30]; How many leaders are making (and encouraging) status-quo decisions, and how Bill Belichick's decision-making changed after winning two Super Bowls [1:35:15]; What did we learn about decision-making from the Y2K nothingburger? And how about the D-Day invasion? [1:39:30]; The first step to becoming a good decision maker [1:43:00]; The difference between elite poker players and the ones who make much slower progress [1:49:45]; Framework for learning a skill, the four levels of thought, and why we hate digging into our victories to see what happened [1:52:15]; The capacity for self-deception, and when it is MOST important to apply four-level thinking [2:00:30]; Soft landings: The challenge of high-level thinking where there is subtle feedback and wider skill gaps [2:11:00]; The benefits of “backcasting” (and doing pre-mortems) [2:13:30]; Parting advice from Annie for those feeling overwhelmed (and two book recommendations) [2:21:30]; and More. Connect With Peter on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook and YouTube

In this episode, Emily explains the key concepts from Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets", which emphasizes the importance of distinguishing between decisions and outcomes for Chiefs of Staff and other leaders. She shares examples like Pete Carroll's controversial Super Bowl play call and a golfer's swing to illustrate the roles of skill and luck in decision-making. Emily also discusses how our self-narratives and biases can hinder clear thinking, and provides a list of questions to ask ourselves to make better decisions.Links Mentioned:Clarity Call with EmilyThinking in Bets BookFree Resources:Strategic Planning Checklist Chief of Staff Skills Assessment ChecklistA Day in the Life of a Chief of StaffChief of Staff ToolkitGet in touch with Emily:Connect on LinkedInFollow on YouTubeLearn more about coaching Sign up for the newsletterClarity Call with Emily Who Am I?If we haven't yet before - Hi

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 2837: Kiersten Saunders of RichAndRegular.com shares insights on how to take control of your financial future by giving yourself a raise. She discusses the importance of managing your paycheck effectively, avoiding lifestyle inflation, and investing in assets to create new income streams, highlighting the empowering shift from relying solely on employer-based salary increases. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://richandregular.com/the-easiest-way-to-get-a-raise-is-to-give-yourself-one/ Quotes to ponder: "When you work for someone else, you implicitly accept a limited upside and unlimited downside." "Our raises come from being bullish about the unsexy realities of staying rich. We call them our 'richuals'." "If you're ready to make more money, you can. You just have to do the math and master the odds." Episode references: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Discover all of the podcasts in our network, search for specific episodes, get the Optimal Living Daily workbook, and learn more at: OLDPodcast.com. Episode 2837: Kiersten Saunders of RichAndRegular.com shares insights on how to take control of your financial future by giving yourself a raise. She discusses the importance of managing your paycheck effectively, avoiding lifestyle inflation, and investing in assets to create new income streams, highlighting the empowering shift from relying solely on employer-based salary increases. Read along with the original article(s) here: https://richandregular.com/the-easiest-way-to-get-a-raise-is-to-give-yourself-one/ Quotes to ponder: "When you work for someone else, you implicitly accept a limited upside and unlimited downside." "Our raises come from being bullish about the unsexy realities of staying rich. We call them our 'richuals'." "If you're ready to make more money, you can. You just have to do the math and master the odds." Episode references: Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, I'm thrilled to welcome Annie Duke back on the podcast. Annie is an author, speaker, and consultant. She has a PhD in Cognitive Psychology and is a special partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed-stage venture fund. Many of you will likely recognize Annie from her illustrious career as a professional poker player, during which she won over $4 million and a World Series of Poker bracelet before retiring from poker in 2012. Today, we will focus on her newest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. She explores why many people continue with relationships and careers that no longer serve us and how to master the skill of quitting to pursue something else that will make you happier. In our conversation, Annie reveals the most challenging aspect of changing careers and transitioning into retirement is often linked to the loss of identity and purpose, how the lessons that we teach our kids about quitting should be focused on overall happiness instead of failure, and simple strategies to help to make better decisions that are shrouded in uncertainty. GET A FREE ACCESS TO ANNIE'S BOOK TITLED QUIT: THE POWER OF KNOWING WHEN TO WALK AWAY Here's all you have to do... Step 1.) Subscribe to the podcast and leave an honest rating & review over on iTunes. Step 2.) Text the word BOOK to 866-482-9559 and we'll make sure you get signed up for free. It's that simple! In this podcast interview, you'll learn: How Annie's decision to retire from poker was influenced by her happiness and loss of passion for the game. Why many people struggle with making good decisions when faced with uncertainty. Why one of the hardest aspects of quitting or retiring is the loss of identity. How the demise of Sears, one of the largest and most successful companies in the country, can be linked to a loss of identity. The similarities in the decision making process between firing an employee, quitting a job and retiring. A different perspective on how we teach our kids and grandkids about quitting when it comes to sports and activities. Annie's tips and strategies for overcoming analysis-paralysis with investing decisions during the transition to retirement. Our Market Outlook Webinar is live! Visit https://bit.ly/4bmHkUb to register. Show Notes: RetireWithPurpose.com/453 Rate & Review the Podcast: RetireWithPurpose.com/review

I returned to Yo Canny's podcast Girl, Take the Lead to discuss the book Quit, The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie Duke.Yo and I covered a lot of powerful topics about quitting, so our conversation is available in two parts. Feedback was so positive and powerful that we released these two episodes on the Build Your Brave Career podcast feed as well.Rethinking Grit: Embracing the Quit with Nicole Trick Steinbach PART 1 of 2Yo and I explored these themes:The difference (and overlap) of Grit vs QuitHow intersectional identities impact Quit vs GritWhen women stay too long and a simple scale to identify if it is time for you too move onThe metaphor of ‘Whispers, Missals, & Bricks' of being called to change The transformative power of the mindset “At the Moment Manager”Rethinking Grit: Embracing the Quit with Nicole Trick Steinbach PART 2 of 2Yo and I explored these themes:Goals and outcomes, and how generations do it differentlySunday Scaries and choosing to stress lessHow I am a sorta “Quit Coach”What kill criteria is and a story from my clientYo's amazing quote of being “In Love with my own Self-Importance”Choosing the battles worth having for the growth you wantThe infamous “Ant Story”Yo's top three takeaways are:In our culture we see grit as a virtue and quit as a vice. Per Annie Duke: “Success does not lie in sticking to things. It lies in picking the right thing to stick to and quitting the rest.”Any decision is made under some degree of uncertainty – we don't have crystal balls and new information will always reveal itself.External validation increases the escalation of commitment. Fear of how others will view us if we quit is usually overblown.My key takeaway is how important building the bravery to establish and then craft the habit of quitting -- places, relationships, habits, and jobs -- as a woman in tech is to ensuring that you never, ever quit yourself. Ever. Related Episodes:The book Quit has been so instrumental to me and my coaching clients, that I also created a related Build Your Brave Career podcast episode: The Brave Act of Quitting: Recognizing the Right Time to Walk Away from GoalsYo Canny was also a guest on my podcast, listen to her episode here: The Power of Personal Brands: Yo Canny's Insights on Crafting a Compelling, Authentic Brand for Career Satisfaction E146For more information on how you can build your brave:Check out my websiteJoin my mailing list for more insights, opportunities, and inspirationConnection with me on LinkedIn

TUNE IN TO LEARN:  Can you rewire your brain for success?    Join me, Angela Shurina, your Brain's Coach, as we uncover the science behind brain automatic programs and how they shape our behavior for success or failure.     From the insights of Shane Parrish's "Clear Thinking: Turning Ordinary Moments into Extraordinary Results," we dive into strategies used by highly successful individuals to design systems that make the best choices effortless. By examining the habits and mindsets that drive success, we uncover methods to reprogram our automatic responses and implement more effective behaviors, even under pressure.    Discover the game-changing concept of "kill criteria" introduced by Annie Duke, which helps prevent emotional decision-making and premature quitting.     Learn how to establish pre-defined rules for when to abandon a strategy and how planning ahead can help you tackle challenging situations, such as making healthier choices during business dinners or avoiding unhealthy habits during stressful times.    With practical tips on creating safeguards, rehearsing responses, and forming commitment plans, this episode equips you with the tools to break detrimental patterns and achieve consistently better decisions.    Plus, don't miss the opportunity for a complimentary coaching session to identify and overcome your recurring challenges.    Email me at angela@brainbreakthroughcoach.com to start bulletproofing your systems for success today!    Text Me Your Thoughts and IdeasSupport the Show. Brought to you by Angela Shurina EXECUTIVE HEALTH AND OPTIMAL PERFORMANCE COACH Change in days - not in years!

Follow me @samirkaji for my thoughts on the venture market, with a focus on the continued evolution of the VC landscape.We're re-joined by Mike Maples, Jr. of Floodgate, this time to discuss his just released new book "Pattern Breakers."Mike was first on the pod in 2021 and it was great to catch up again, this time to discuss the importance of identifying founders who are true pattern breakers. We spoke about how his observations on the last 14 years at Floodgate inspired him to write the book. We went through concepts such as founder-future fit, the winning formula of inflections and insights, and his experience that 80% of their returns have been from companies with some major insight or pivot.   You can find Mike's book "Pattern Breakers" and additional insights on his substack at patternbreakers.substack.com.About Mike Maples, Jr.:Mike Maples, Jr. is a co-founding Partner at Floodgate. He has been on the Forbes Midas List eight times in the last decade and was also named a “Rising Star” by FORTUNE and profiled by Harvard Business School for his lifetime contributions to entrepreneurship. Before becoming a full-time investor, Mike was involved as a founder and operating executive at back-to-back startup IPOs, including Tivoli Systems (IPO TIVS, acquired by IBM) and Motive (IPO MOTV, acquired by Alcatel-Lucent.)Some of Mike's investments include Twitter, Twitch.tv, Clover Health, Okta, Outreach, ngmoco, Chegg, Bazaarvoice, and Demandforce.Mike is known for coining the term “Thunder Lizards,” which is a metaphor derived from Godzilla that describes the tiny number of truly exceptional companies that are wildly disruptive capitalist mutations. Mike likes to think of himself as a hunter of the “atomic eggs” that beget these companies.Mike is the host of the Pattern Breakers podcast, which shares startup lessons from the super performers.In this episode, we discuss:(02:00) The story behind writing "Pattern Breakers" and the investment in Twitch and the importance of pivots(04:07) Insights from returns on pivots and major insider pivots(05:02) The concept of founder-future fit and initial skepticism(07:04) The inflection point of Twitch pivoting from Justin.tv(10:28) Authenticity and insights in startup founders(14:32) The role of pattern recognition in startup success(16:24) Creating movements and attracting early believers(21:12) Importance of inflection points in startup success(25:00) Non-obvious inflection points and backcasting(29:52) The formula of inflection plus insight(32:00) Non-consensus and right: key to venture success(34:52) Venture capital and risk-taking(38:00) Inflections and protecting unconventional ideas(41:00) Patience as a form of arbitrage in venture investing(45:00) Insights from Annie Duke on decision-making in venture capitalI'd love to know what you took away from this conversation with Mike. Follow me @SamirKaji and give me your insights and questions with the hashtag #ventureunlocked. If you'd like to be considered as a guest or have someone you'd like to hear from (GP or LP), drop me a direct message on Twitter.Podcast Production support provided by Agent Bee This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit ventureunlocked.substack.com

Episode Highlights:How Did Brett Brewer's Early Real Estate Ventures Shape His Entrepreneurial JourneyThe difficulty of raising pre-seed financing, the role of accelerators and incubators, and the process of raising $300,000 for the business.The impact of the dotcom crash on e-commerce businesses and the shift to casual game development.The launch of Myspace, and the initial user engagement strategy.Brett's role in scaling Ad Knowledge, its rapid growth, and eventual sale to TPG and other private equity firms.The founding of CrossCut Ventures, and the evolution of its investment focus.The challenges of recruiting talent to LA, the evolution of the LA tech ecosystem, and CrossCut's role in connecting and supporting the community.The difficulties and challenges faced by venture capitalists.The significance of technology in education and the need to bridge the gap between the haves and have-nots in accessing educational resources.Brett Brewer's investment philosophy and insights into private versus public markets, influenced by Annie Duke's book "Thinking in Bets.”Tweetable Quotes:“Be the straw that serves to drink.” — Kurt“So that starts to become a self-fulfilling prophecy when you have that many smart people controlling that much capital living in the actual market.” —Brett“Understanding the best use of your time and how to be productive is a real challenge and ends up being the downfall of some VCs.” —Brett“Politics and infighting is the death of a startup.”—Brett“If you're gonna have an environment where people don't trust each other- where they can't give each other candid feedback, they will fail.”—Brett“And I think there's something really magical about being honest.—”Kurt“Culture isn't just values, it's the actual way ideas get put into practice. It's the behavior.”—Kurt“So it's more important than ever that as a society, we realize that we do have a moral imperative to invest in and believe in and educate all kids and give them a chance.” —Brett“Every individual and every company has a certain set of advantages. You have to take full advantage of them to greatly increase your chances of being successful.” —Brett“It's comforting when you realize there are just lots of things out of your control and the less time you spend worrying about them, the better off you'll be.”—Brett“You have to do something extraordinary and the only way you're gonna do something extraordinary is by actually doing some action.”—BrettLinks Mentioned:Kurt's TwitterKurt's InstagramKurt's LinkedInBrett BrewerCrosscut VenturesAber WhitcombAdam GoldenbergBrian GarrettJosh BermanPeter TomasuloRoss LevinsohnScott NolanThomas AndersonAllianceAmazonEdVoiceFableticsFedexFoundersfundIGNLAtechMicrosoftMySpaceNews CorpNVIDIAReal World Asset GroupSoftBankSpaceXStealing MySpace: The Battle to Control the Most Popular Website in AmericaThe Wall Street JournalTPG

In episode 402 of The Brainy Business podcast, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player and author of the book Quit, joins host Melina Palmer to discuss the psychology of quitting and decision-making under uncertainty. Annie's transition from an academic to a professional poker player and her subsequent work in decision science provide a unique and valuable perspective on the topic. Throughout the conversation, Annie challenges traditional perceptions of quitting and emphasizes its crucial role in winning and strategic decision-making.  She introduces concepts such as pre-mortems and the mental model of monkeys and pedestals, offering practical tools and frameworks for making better decisions. The episode provides valuable insights into reframing the mindset around quitting, the importance of understanding when to quit, and the potential impact of decision education in various domains. Annie Duke's diverse background and expertise in decision science make this episode a must-listen for entrepreneurs and business owners seeking to enhance their strategic decision-making skills and achieve increased business success. In this episode: Discover the strategic benefits of quitting in business to unlock new opportunities and growth potential. Implement behavioral economics in your business to enhance decision-making and drive better outcomes. Learn how to strategically identify when to quit for long-term business success and resilience. Explore the Monkeys and Pedestals decision-making model for insightful strategies to improve decision-making processes. Overcome analysis paralysis and make decisive, effective decisions to propel your business forward. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction The episode introduces Annie Duke and her book Quit about the psychology of quitting and decision-making. 00:01:15 - The Importance of Quitting Annie explains how winners often say no and quit things to succeed, emphasizing the need to know what to stick with, what to quit, and when. 00:04:47 - Annie's Background and Transition Annie shares her journey from academia to professional poker and behavioral psychology, highlighting how her poker career led her back to her cognitive science roots. 00:08:40 - The Power of Diverse Perspectives Annie discusses the value of diverse experiences in decision-making and problem-solving, emphasizing the importance of different frames of thinking to bring unique insights to the table. 00:12:05 - The Pre Mortem Skepticism Annie shares her research on pre-mortems, expressing skepticism about their effectiveness as standalone decision tools and the need to combine them with other strategies for improving decision quality. 00:14:18 - Normalize Dissent and Prospective Hindsight Daniel Kahneman's advice on normalizing dissent allows for consideration of both good and bad outcomes. Prospective hindsight can generate 30% more reasons for failure or success. 00:15:19 - Pre Parade and Pre Mortem Tools Pre-mortem exercises influence confidence and introduce self-serving bias. The pre parade increases overconfidence, while the pre-mortem leads to attributing bad outcomes to external factors. 00:18:43 - Challenges in Behavior Change Difficulty in getting people to change plans despite pre-mortem insights. Anecdotal observations and studies show resistance to plan modifications across various domains, raising questions about the effectiveness of the exercise. 00:19:55 - Group Dynamics and Real-world Impact Need for group testing of pre-mortems to understand the impact of group dynamics. Potential for behavior change in high-stakes environments like work projects. Studies underway to explore these aspects in real-world scenarios. 00:22:23 - Thinking in Bets and How to Decide Annie's books Thinking in Bets and How to Decide explore decision-making under uncertainty. They provide practical tools and insights, such as pre-mortems, to improve decision accuracy and overcome cognitive biases. 00:27:11 - The Impact of Hindsight Bias Annie discusses how most of the time, we learn new things after the fact and act like we should have known them beforehand. She highlights the importance of tracking knowledge and listening to independent opinions to avoid biases. 00:27:52 - Overcoming Analysis Paralysis Annie explains the process of decision-making and the importance of making implicit factors explicit. She emphasizes the need to consider the consequences of decisions and the ability to change your mind later. 00:32:38 - The Value of Quitting Annie challenges the negative perception of quitting and emphasizes its value in decision-making. She shares insights from experts and individuals, highlighting the benefits of exercising the option to quit. 00:35:32 - Conversations with Experts Annie shares her conversations with influential figures like Michael Mobison, Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler, and others. These discussions inspired her to explore the topic of quitting further, leading to the creation of her book. 00:40:52 - The California Bullet Train Annie uses the example of the California bullet train project to illustrate the challenges of large-scale decision-making and the importance of considering all factors before committing to a course of action. 00:41:35 - The California Bullet Train Project Annie discusses the challenges faced by the California bullet train project due to the Diablo and Tehachapi mountain ranges. The budget explosion and the decision to continue building without addressing the engineering challenges are highlighted. 00:43:02 - Re-evaluation of the Project Gavin Newsom's decision to reevaluate the California bullet train project in 2018 is discussed. The project's failure to address the engineering problems of the mountain ranges and the budget increase to $110 billion are emphasized. 00:44:44 - Monkeys and Pedestals Framework Annie introduces the "Monkeys and Pedestals" framework, which emphasizes tackling the hard problems first before building pedestals. The concept of pre-mortems and setting kill criteria to identify and address project challenges is explained. 00:50:55 - Behavior Change and Future Planning The importance of behavior change in addressing project challenges and the application of pre-mortems and setting kill criteria to identify crucial information are discussed. The significance of identifying the "monkeys" before building "pedestals" is emphasized. 00:54:06 - Tackling Low Hanging Fruit The reverse approach to tackling projects, focusing on solving hard problems before addressing easy tasks, is highlighted. The importance of prioritizing crucial information and being smarter about project approach is emphasized. 00:54:54 - The Importance of Solving Hard Problems First Annie emphasizes the need to focus on solving the hard problem first before building pedestals. She highlights the concept of working on the greatest bike shed instead of the nuclear plant, as well as the law of triviality. 00:55:37 - The Pitfalls of Wasteful Thinking Annie discusses how people often fail to think ahead and waste time and resources on backward thinking. She emphasizes the importance of evaluating the worth of the next minute and dollar, shifting mindset from past to future. 00:56:24 - The Key to Success and Grit Annie explains that winners quit a lot, but they do it to focus on the right things. Grit is important, but only when applied to the right endeavors. She also touches on forced quitting and exploring new opportunities. 00:57:25 - The Importance of Flexibility and Agility Annie highlights the significance of being flexible and open to switching course if the current endeavor is not worthwhile. Winners sample a lot of things and settle on the right course of action, even if they don't know what they are switching to. 01:00:28 _  Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Annie: ANNIE'S WEBSITE ANNIE ON TWITTER ANNIE ON LINKEDIN Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Quit, by Annie Duke Subtract, by Leidy Klotz How to Decide, by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke Playing with Reality, by Kelly Clancy Top Recommended Next Episode: Game Theory (ep 228) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Matthew Confer Interview (ep 158) Counterfactual Thinking (ep 286) Framing (ep 296) Loss Aversion (ep 316) Status Quo Bias (ep 376) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter A Slight Change of Plans Podcast with Maya Shankar Annie's Newsletter

Never give up, right? Winners never quit and quitters never win! All nonsense, I'm afraid. The sensible advice is much more measured and boring: quit when it's appropriate to quit. But how do you know when it's appropriate to quit? And have we really got quitting all wrong? Listen on, friends, and find out.Here's Annie Duke talking sense about quitting on The Spark podcast. Download the Core Values exercise here, and the 5 Whys exercise here.Reference:Duke, A. 2022: Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away (London: Penguin).

Read the full transcript here. Should people spend more time becoming better decision-makers? What are the main things that determine how our lives turn out? What's wrong with pro / con lists? When should we deviate from making decisions based on expected value calculations? What kinds of uncertainty might we encounter in the decision-making process? Are explicit decision calculations self-defeating? How similar is intuitive decision-making to decision-making that's based on calculations? How useful are heuristics? How can we know which decisions are significant enough to warrant calculations? What makes a decision hard? What's the omission / commission bias? What lessons can we learn from monkeys and pedestals? Should decision-making strategies be taught in primary and secondary schools?Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Her latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker, has won a World Series of Poker bracelet, and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. Connect with her on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, LinkedIn or via her website, AnnieDuke.com; or subscribe to her newsletter on Substack.Further reading:Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, by Annie DukeQuit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie DukeHow to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices, by Annie DukeThe Alliance for Decision Education StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsAlexandria D. — Research and Special Projects AssistantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

Hey there, welcome back to the Empowered Feminine Podcast! It's Ciara here, and I'm so excited to reconnect with you. I know I've been away for two weeks, but I want to share why that break was so important. It's all about learning to let go and focus on what truly matters.1. Taking a Break to Reassess: Sometimes, you need to hit pause to figure out what's really important. I took this time to listen to my heart and mind, letting go of commitments that no longer align with my vision.2. The Power of Clarity: During my break, I gained so much clarity. It became clear that saying yes to one thing often means saying no to something else. When you know what's important, letting go becomes easier.3. Quitting the Half Marathon: I made the tough decision to quit training for a half marathon. It wasn't easy, but I realized it wasn't serving my overall goals and well-being. This decision freed up my energy for what truly matters.4. Lessons from "Quit" by Annie Duke: Have you ever read "Quit" by Annie Duke? It's a game-changer. She talks about the power of walking away. It's not about quitting but strategically letting go to make room for what really matters.5. Navigating Transitions: Life is full of changes, especially for us women in midlife. By prioritizing what's important, you can navigate these transitions with grace and confidence.6. Hormonal Health and Wellness: Let's not forget about our health. Hormonal changes during perimenopause are real. I've got some tips on managing your hormonal health through nutrition and self-care.Takeaways:- It's okay to step back and focus on what matters most.- Clarity in your vision makes letting go of unnecessary commitments so much easier.- Walking away from what doesn't serve you is a powerful move.- Navigating life's changes with a clear focus can be empowering.- Supporting your hormonal health is essential and totally doable.If you enjoyed this chat, please leave a review and share it with your friends.Follow me on Instagram @ciarafoyinc for daily inspiration and tips on living a healthy, empowered life.Join our community by subscribing to the podcast for more heartfelt conversations."Letting go of what no longer serves you isn't a loss; it's a powerful step toward clarity and fulfillment."- Ciara FoyQuit by Annie Duke: https://a.co/d/3NSny5J

Bonni Stachowiak: Teaching in Higher Ed Bonni is the host of the Teaching in Higher Ed podcast, Dean of Teaching and Learning and Professor of Business and Management at Vanguard University, and my life partner. Prior to her academic career, she was a human resources consultant and executive officer for a publicly traded company. Bonni is the author of The Productive Online and Offline Professor: A Practical Guide. Question from Qasim Qasim asked our thoughts on how to break the busy cycle and actually get started with something important. Aruj wondered how to handle a tricky situation where colleagues are gossiping lots in the office. Alice has three great opportunities in front of her was curious our advice on how to decide between them. Resources Mentioned How to Decide by Annie Duke Related Episodes How to Start a Conversation With Anyone, with Mark Sieverkropp (episode 177) How to Deal with Opponents and Adversaries, with Peter Block (episode 328) The Way to Make Better Decisions, with Annie Duke (episode 499) The Power of Unlearning Silence, with Elaine Lin Hering (episode 678) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

Former World Series of Poker Champion and best-selling author, Annie Duke, returns to the show to discuss the  concepts from her book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. Annie shares insights on how grit, often celebrated as a virtue, can also lead to sticking with paths that no longer serve us. Joe and Annie  draw parallels to other high-profile figures like Jerry Seinfeld and Will Smith, who chose to step down from projects at the pinnacle of their careers. They also dive into Joe's decision to retire from the Army. During the episode Joe and Annie discuss the following topics:The double-edged nature of grit and its impact on decision-making.Joe's personal experience of deciding to retire from the military and the concept of quitting at a high point in one's career.The concept of 'jumping the shark' and the challenges in identifying the right time to quit.How to separate your identity from your careerThe importance of setting 'kill criteria' to effectively determine when to quit under uncertainty.The role of intuition, sunk costs, and fear of the unknown in decision-making processes.Using the monkeys and pedestals mental model before starting a major projectAnnie is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie's latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2023 Annie completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn.Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute.Special thanks to this week's sponsors!Veteran-founded Adyton. Step into the next generation of equipment management with Log-E by Adyton. Whether you are doing monthly inventories or preparing for deployment, Log-E is your pocket property book, giving real-time visibility into equipment status and mission readiness. Learn more about how Log-E can revolutionize your property tracking process here!My favorite coffee is veteran-owned Alpha Coffee and I've been drinking it every morning since 2020! They make 100% premium arabica coffee. Alpha has donated over 22k bags of coffee to deployed units and they offer a 10% discount for military veterans, first responders, nurses, and teachers! Try their coffee today. Once you taste the Alpha difference, you won't want to drink anything else!  Learn more here.   

Former World Series of Poker Champion and best-selling author, Annie Duke, joins Joe to share her journey from studying cognitive science to becoming a poker legend, and how this experience led her to explore the cognitive underpinnings of decision-making in everyday life.Joe and Annie explore the fundamental concepts from her book, Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts, and discuss how treating life's decisions as bets can significantly improve how we navigate uncertainty. Some of the topics they discuss include:The two factors that determine the quality of your lifeUsing poker strategies for making decisionsSeparating outcome quality from decision qualityHow our self-narrative affects reflection and learningThe benefits of mental time travel...and much moreAnnie is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie's latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. In 2023 Annie completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn.Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute.Special thanks to this week's sponsors!Veteran-founded Adyton. Step into the next generation of equipment management with Log-E by Adyton. Whether you are doing monthly inventories or preparing for deployment, Log-E is your pocket property book, giving real-time visibility into equipment status and mission readiness. Learn more about how Log-E can revolutionize your property tracking process here!My favorite coffee is veteran-owned Alpha Coffee and I've been drinking it every morning since 2020! They make 100% premium arabica coffee. Alpha has donated over 22k bags of coffee to deployed units and they offer a 10% discount for military veterans, first responders, nurses, and teachers! Try their coffee today. Once you taste the Alpha difference, you won't want to drink anything else!  Learn more here.   

Annie Duke is a former professional poker player, a decision-making expert, and a special partner at First Round Capital. She is the author of Thinking in Bets (a national bestseller) and Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away and the co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education, a nonprofit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. In our conversation, we cover:• What Annie learned from the late Daniel Kahneman• The power of pre-mortems and “kill criteria”• The relationship between money and happiness• The power of “mental time travel”• The nominal group technique for better decision quality• How First Round Capital improved their decision-making process• Many tactical decision-making frameworks—Brought to you by:• Vanta—Automate compliance. Simplify security.• UserTesting—Human understanding. Human experiences.• LinkedIn Ads—Reach professionals and drive results for your business—Find the transcript at: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/making-better-decisions-annie-duke—Where to find Annie Duke:• X: https://twitter.com/AnnieDuke• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/annie-duke/• Website: https://www.annieduke.com/• Substack: https://www.annieduke.com/substack/—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Annie's background(03:53) Lessons from Daniel Kahneman: humility, curiosity, and open-mindedness(09:15) The importance of unconditional love in parenting(15:15) Mental time travel and “nevertheless”(20:06) The extent of improvement possible in decision-making (24:54) Independent brainstorming for better decisions(35:36) Making sure people feel heard(42:41) The “3Ds” framework to make better decisions(44:49) Decision quality(55:46) Improving decision-making at First Round Capital(01:05:05) Using pre-mortems and kill criteria(01:10:15) Making explicit what's implicit(01:10:55) The challenges of quitting and knowing when to walk away(01:19:23) Where to find Annie—Referenced:• Daniel Kahneman, Who Plumbed the Psychology of Economics, Dies at 90: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/27/business/daniel-kahneman-dead.html• Adversarial collaboration: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adversarial_collaboration• Does more money correlate with greater happiness?: https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/does-more-money-correlate-greater-happiness-Penn-Princeton-research#• Income and emotional well-being: A conflict resolved: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/36857342/• Strategic decisions: When can you trust your gut?: https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/strategic-decisions-when-can-you-trust-your-gut• Cass Sunstein on X: https://twitter.com/CassSunstein• Dr. Becky on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/drbeckyatgoodinside• A framework for finding product-market fit | Todd Jackson (First Round Capital): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/a-framework-for-finding-product-market• First Round Capital: https://firstround.com/• Brett Berson on X: https://twitter.com/brettberson• Renegade Partners: https://www.renegadepartners.com/• Renata Quintini on X: https://twitter.com/rquintini• Roseanne Wincek on X: https://twitter.com/imthemusic• Josh Kopelman on X: https://twitter.com/joshk• Bill Trenchard on X: https://twitter.com/btrenchard• Linnea Gandhi on X: https://twitter.com/linneagandhi• Maurice Schweitzer on X: https://twitter.com/me_schweitzer• Problems with premortems: https://sjdm.org/presentations/2021-Poster-Gandhi-Linnea-debiasing-premortem-selfserving~.pdf• Create a Solid Plan on How to Fail Big This Year: https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbesfinancecouncil/2020/02/07/create-a-solid-plan-on-how-to-fail-big-this-year/• Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away: https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/0593422996/• Richard Thaler on X: https://twitter.com/R_Thaler• Stewart Butterfield on X: https://twitter.com/stewart• Glitch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glitch_(video_game)• How the Founder of Slack & Flickr Turned Colossal Failures into Billion-Dollar Companies: https://medium.com/swlh/how-the-founder-of-slack-flickr-turned-failures-into-million-and-billion-dollar-companies-7bcaf0d35d66• The Most Fascinating Profile You'll Ever Read About a Guy and His Boring Startup: https://www.wired.com/2014/08/the-most-fascinating-profile-youll-ever-read-about-a-guy-and-his-boring-startup/• The Alliance for Decision Education: https://alliancefordecisioneducation.org/• Make Better Decisions course on Maven: https://maven.com/annie-duke/make-better-decisions—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. Get full access to Lenny's Newsletter at www.lennysnewsletter.com/subscribe

Kyle Grieve chats with Annie Duke about her own story of quitting and how it helped sparked the idea for one of her books, the importance of base rates in helping us make better decisions, how to improve our investing processes when we have long feedback loops, the importance of using kill criteria to quit an investment or hypothesis, how to use a quitting coach to help you quit things we hold onto for too long, the importance of dissociating ourselves from our most cherished ideas, and a whole lot more! IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:28 - Annie's own story of quitting and how it got here to where she is today. 15:50 - Why expected value is so crucial for investors to manage risk best. 20:15 - The importance of understanding base rates. 20:15 - How we can use base rates to help us best understand expected values of our investments. 24:55 - How we can reframe our analysis of a business to close feedback loops on long-term investments. 32:40 - How we can get transfer from one skill to another far away skill (e.g. chess to investing). 45:28 - How we can use kill criteria in our investing decision-making to improve our abilities to quit a losing investment. 45:28 - How to engineer your decision-making to give yourself an outside view. 51:11 - How we can disassociate ourselves from our investments to reduce the impacts of the endowment effects. 51:32 - How to set up a quitting coach by permitting them to disagree with you. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away here. Buy Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts here. Check out Annie's substack here. Learn more about Annie Duke here. Related Episode: RWH015: Betting Better In Markets & Life w/ Annie Duke | YouTube video. Related Episode: TIP231: The Mind Of A World Poker Champion w/ Annie Duke | YouTube video. Learn more about the Berkshire Summit by clicking here or emailing Clay at clay@theinvestorspodcast.com. Follow Kyle on Twitter and LinkedIn. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: River Toyota TurboTax Fidelity Monarch Money Meyka Simon & Schuster CI Financial Vacasa Long Angle Fundrise iFlex Stretch Studios American Express Shopify HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Mike Caulfield: Verified Mike Caulfield is a research scientist at the University of Washington's Center for an Informed Public, where he studies the spread of online rumors and misinformation. He has taught thousands of teachers and students how to verify claims and sources through his workshops. His SIFT methodology is taught by hundreds of research libraries across North America, and a shorter version of SIFT instruction, developed with Google, has been taught in public libraries across the world. His work on Web Literacy for Student Fact-Checkers, won the Merlot Award for best open learning resource in the ICT category. His work has been covered by The New York Times, the Chronicle of Higher Education, NPR, The Wall Street Journal, USA Today, and the MIT Technology Review. He is the author with Sam Wineburg of Verified: How to Think Straight, Get Duped Less, and Make Better Decisions about What to Believe Online*. We've all seen something online that we thought was true, but turned out was a hoax. Annoying, but no big deal if it's just an internet meme from a friend or family member. But what if what you find online isn't at all what you thought and you make decisions or take action on it that affects your professional credibility? In this conversation, Mike and I discuss how to guard yourself from being duped. Key Points Rather than asking, “Is this true?” the more useful question is, “Do I know what I'm looking at here?” The cheap signals many of us were trained to watch for (working links, attractive design, about pages, proper domains) are easy to replicate and no longer correlate to credibility. Phrase questions to search engines in neutral ways for less biased results. Instead of “Are soda taxes a good idea?” ask “Do soda taxes work?” While Wikipedia still has bias, it's a far more credible source that many of us were taught — and a valuable source for a broad perspective of a topic or organization. Intelligent people often read vertically, to their detriment. The best fact-checkers read laterally by using the rest of the web to read the web. Watch for phrases like “sponsored content,” “brand partner,” “presented with,” “in partnership with,” “brought to you by,” “in association with,” or “hosted by.” These phrases signal advertisements. Resources Mentioned Verified: How to Think Straight, Get Duped Less, and Make Better Decisions about What to Believe Online* by Mike Caulfield and Sam Wineburg Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes The Way to Make Better Decisions, with Annie Duke (episode 499) Get People Reading What You're Sending, with Todd Rogers (episode 666) How to Enhance Your Credibility (audio course) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

In his 2020 memo You Bet!, Howard Marks explained what it means to “think in bets,” as he discussed the many parallels between investing and games of chance. Now you can listen to You Bet!, the first release from The Memo by Howard Marks: The Archive. We've received many requests for an audio library of the memos that Howard Marks has published over the last 34 years, so we're going to begin building this archive by releasing audio versions of some of Howard's most popular memos.To hear more about Howard's thoughts on this memo, listen to his conversation with former professional poker player and best-selling author Annie Duke, whose 2018 book Thinking in Bets was the inspiration for the memo. This special episode (https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/insight-podcast/market-commentary/the-insight-conversations-special-episode-with-annie-duke-and-howard-marks) of the The Insight: Conversations with Howard and Annie was released in December 2023.

Amy Edmondson: Right Kind of Wrong Amy Edmondson is the Novartis Professor of Leadership and Management at the Harvard Business School, where she studies people and organizations seeking to make a positive difference in the world through the work they do. She has pioneered the concept of psychological safety for over twenty years and is recognized as number one on the Thinkers50 global ranking of management thinkers. She also received that organization's Breakthrough Idea Award in 2019 and Talent Award in 2017. In 2019 she was first on HR Magazine's list of the 20 Most Influential International Thinkers in Human Resources. Her prior book, The Fearless Organization, explains psychological safety and has been translated into fifteen languages. In addition to publishing several books and numerous articles in top academic outlets, Amy has written for, or her work has been covered by, media such as The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Washington Post, Financial Times, and many others. Her TED Talk on teaming has been viewed more than 3 million times. She is the author of Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well*. Many leaders espouse the value of talking about our failures. Yet, failure is a threat to our ego, so it turns out we're better at learning from the failures of others than we are from our own. In this conversation, Amy and I explore how to do a better job of growing where we're in the wrong. Key Points Failure is a threat to our ego. As a result, we're more likely to learn from the failures of others than from our own failures. It's hard to learn if you already know. If you came frame situations more helpfully, it can substantially influence your ability to grow from being wrong. Disrupt the inevitable emotional response to being wrong by asking this: how was I feeling before this happened? Challenge yourself by considering if the content of your thoughts are useful for your goal. A key question: what other interpretation of the situation is possible? Choose to say or do something that moves you closer to your goals. This question will help: what is going to best help me achieve my goals? Resources Mentioned Right Kind of Wrong: The Science of Failing Well* by Amy Edmondson Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes How to Build Psychological Safety, with Amy Edmondson (episode 404) The Value of Being Uncomfortable, with Neil Pasricha (episode 448) How to Quit Bad Stuff Faster, with Annie Duke (episode 607) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

Right now, we'd like to thank the sponsor of this episode: LifeMD. Looking to lose weight and improve your health? Embrace your journey towards a healthier and happier you, and achieve lasting sustainable weight loss with LifeMD by your side. Visit lifemd.com/CHARM to get started! In today's episode, we tackle decision making with some of the world's experts on the topic. First, Annie Duke, a former professional poker player now a coach and author of Quit, The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. Next, David Siegel, CEO of Meetup.com and author of Decide and Conquer, shares his expertise on leadership decision-making. Dan Ariely, a Duke University professor and renowned author, who delves into overcoming indecision and regret. Finally, former intelligence officer and author Shane Parrish talks about his book Clear Thinking: Turning Extraordinary Moments Into Extraordinary Results. From the influence of regret on our choices to the impact of blind spots on decision patterns, our guests offer practical strategies to enhance your decision-making skills. Join us as we explore the power of timely action, the significance of embracing change, and the transformative potential of making better decisions. What to Listen For Introduction – 0:00 Most people have no idea that this one mindset shift will lead to life changing improvements in decision making Most people make bad decisions because of these factors – 9:28 How do most people get stuck in making decisions and what can you do to get unstuck? What are the most common biases we have to overcome to make the right decisions? How do you overcome the sunk cost problem so you don't waste years of your life trying to make a prior bad decision work? This bias stops people from reaching high levels of success – 21:39 Why are most people stuck making decisions that keep them where they are instead of making decisions that put them on track to where they want to be? Use these tools to avoid making terrible decisions – 33:55 How do you create a habit so you make great decisions and avoid terrible decisions without even thinking about them? Most people will never ask this simple question to obtain a mentor who could change their lives forever People don't prioritize this area of decision making enough – 44:09 How do you create rules for automatic success? When is the right time to quit something you're invested in? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices