Podcast appearances and mentions of Annie Duke

In this episode of The Builder's Bookshelf, we break down Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets and translate decision-making under uncertainty into the real world of construction, where every schedule, estimate, and recovery plan is a bet made without all the facts. You'll learn how to separate good decisions from lucky outcomes, think in probabilities, invite dissent, and become the kind of leader who makes sharper calls when the project gets messy.Enjoy Episode 22 and #BeNEXT

MSE host Bill Powers applies Howard Marks' January 2020 memo “You Bet” to junior mining speculation, emphasizing that decision quality and outcomes aren't the same because both luck and process drive results. Drawing on Annie Duke's book “Thinking in Bets,” Powers urges probabilistic thinking, accurate assessment of one's own skills and being comfortable uncertainty. Marks' framework distinguishes games by hidden information, luck, and skill. Powers argues junior resource markets are less efficient “alpha markets” where skill does matter. A key lesson is evaluating the “proposition” (odds relative to the price) rather than just picking the “favorite” or “best.” Action items: read the memo, read Duke's book, and audit recent investments for accurate proposition identification and probabilistic reasoning. 00:00 Mindset Reset 00:31 Howard Marks Memo 02:10 Process Not Outcome 04:34 Thinking in Bets 06:16 Games Luck Skill 08:19 Alpha Markets Edge 09:06 The Proposition 12:02 Nifty Fifty Junk Bonds 14:14 Eight Gambling Lessons 19:57 Second Level Thinking 20:27 Action Items Howard Mark's “You Bet” memo: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/you-bet.pdf?sfvrsn=785dbe65_8 Annie Duke's “Thinking in Bets”: https://www.annieduke.com/books/ Sign up for our free newsletter and receive interview transcripts, stock profiles and investment ideas: http://eepurl.com/cHxJ39 Bill Powers is not a licensed financial advisor. Mining Stock Education offers informational content based on available data but it does not constitute investment, tax, or legal advice. It may not be appropriate for all situations or objectives. Readers and listeners should seek professional advice, make independent investigations and assessments before investing. MSE does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its content and should not be solely relied upon for investment decisions. MSE and its owner may hold financial interests in the companies discussed and can trade such securities without notice. MSE is biased towards its advertising sponsors which make this platform possible. MSE is not liable for representations, warranties, or omissions in its content. By accessing MSE content, users agree that MSE and its affiliates bear no liability related to the information provided or the investment decisions you make. Full disclaimer: https://www.miningstockeducation.com/disclaimer/

Send us Fan MailWhat do traffic jams, poker strategy, and applicant tracking systems have in common? More than you'd think.In this episode, Vanessa unpacks decision-making under uncertainty—why the “fastest” route isn't always the best one, and how both life and job searches can punish us for not being able to predict the future. We talk GPS stress, Annie Duke's poker-based decision framework, nervous system regulation (Maslow before Bloom, always), and a real-world job search story that proves something important:Humans still hire humans—even when algorithms try to pretend otherwise.In This Episode, We CoverWhy GPS (and life) makes “best guesses,” not promises How teachers get stuck outcome-shaming themselves (“If it went badly, I must be wrong…”) What poker psychology teaches us about uncertainty and decision quality A Teacher Hack for protecting your nervous system: take the scenic route The truth about Applicant Tracking Systems (ATS) and why resumes vanish A behind-the-scenes story of navigating hiring systems by reintroducing human connection How to spot culture red flags before you accept the job Why “optimized” doesn't always mean “healthy”   Links MentionedJack Palance “one-armed push-ups” clip (referenced in episode): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AGxL5AFzzMY Teachers in Transition podcast homepage: https://teachersintransition.buzzsprout.com Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=61565671792885 Website: https://TeachersinTransition.com  Optional: Support the Podcast

What if the reason your investment decisions feel so hard isn't the market -- it's how you're wired to think about outcomes? Annie Duke spent years as a professional poker player winning over $4 million in tournaments, then devoted the next chapter of her career to understanding why smart people consistently make bad decisions. The answer has nothing to do with intelligence and everything to do with how we confuse results with quality. She brings the full framework down to the basement today.What You'll Walk Away WithWhy certainty is the enemy of good decision making -- and the mindset shift that makes uncertainty feel like an advantage instead of a threatThe Pete Carroll problem: how tying the outcome of a decision to the quality of the decision is quietly wrecking how you evaluate your investmentsWhy being smarter actually makes this bias worse -- and how intelligent people spin data to confirm what they already believe more effectively than anyone elseThe difference between wanting to be right and wanting to be accurate -- and why that single distinction changes everything about how you process new informationHow to hold your beliefs as "works in progress" rather than positions to defend -- and why that opens you up to information that actually improves your decisionsWhy the stock market's short-term volatility is almost never the signal investors treat it as -- and what a 40-year Berkshire Hathaway chart actually tells youThe poker table parallel to long-term investing -- and why you can make all the right moves and still lose, which means a bad outcome never proves a bad decisionWhat the Philly Special play reveals about how we reward boldness only when it works -- and what that tells you about how you judge your own financial choicesA listener question on market-cap weighted index funds -- why the s and p is built the way it is and what you'd actually need to do to weight it differentlyThe best personal finance and business books the crew is reading right now -- including picks from OG that go well beyond the usual recommendationsWhy This Matters NowFor Stackers in their 40s watching a volatile market and second-guessing decisions that were perfectly sound six months ago, this episode is a direct intervention. The temptation to call a good decision bad because the market moved against you -- or to abandon a long-term strategy because of a short-term result -- is exactly the bias Annie Duke has spent her career studying. The framework she brings today doesn't just apply to poker. It applies to every financial decision you'll make for the rest of your life.From the BasementAnnie Duke joins Joe and OG to walk through the decision-making framework behind her book Thinking in Bets -- including the Super Bowl story that reframes how most people evaluate every financial move they've ever made. The headline segment tackles parents spending six figures on kids' extracurriculars and what the trade-off actually looks like for retirement savings. Doug arrives with poker-themed trivia about the all-time tournament earnings leader, gets it mostly right, and declares victory anyway. Whether the basement poker tournament ended in anyone's favor is a matter of some dispute.Resources MentionedThinking in Bets by Annie Duke -- available wherever books are soldAnnie Duke's website and weekly newsletter -- annieduke.comAnnie Duke on Twitter -- @AnniedDukeThe Truth About Money by Ric Edelman -- recommended by JoeSet for Life by Scott Trench -- recommended by JoeBroke Millennial by Erin Lowry -- recommended by JoeHow to Be a Financial Grownup by Bobbi Rebell -- recommended by JoeThe Behavior Gap and The One-Page Financial Plan by Carl Richards -- recommended by OGFooling Some of the People All of the Time by David Einhorn -- recommended by OGBuilt to Sell by John Warrillow -- recommended by OGThe E-Myth by Michael Gerber -- recommended by JoeThe Goal by Eliyahu Goldratt -- recommended by JoeStacking Benjamins Community -- stackingbenjamins.com/basementSee Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

This Week In Startups is made possible by:Northwest Registered Agent - https://northwestregisteredagent.com/twist LinkedIn Jobs - https://LinkedIn.com/twistToday's show:It's a News and Off-Duty weekend roundup!AngelList's USVC fund is open to anyone with $500, but it's getting pushback on social media. Do the critics have a point?A Special Forces soldier made $409K betting on the military's capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro. Is the world just a big casino now?And a NYT podcast defends shoplifting and explores “social murder.” Find out why Jason says they crossed the line.Plus: Why you should teach your kids about investment and more, Off-Duty streaming and book recommendations.Related LinksUSVC: https://usvc.com/AngelList: https://www.angellist.com/Naval Ravikant on X: https://x.com/naval“Don't Listen to the Peanut Gallery; USVC is a Watershed Moment” by Hari Raghavan: https://x.com/haridigresses/status/2047503944839016681@Covered_Call USVC tweet: https://x.com/covered_call/status/2047020060900733306Forge Global: https://forgeglobal.com/Calm: https://www.calm.com/Full DOJ indictment of Gannon Ken Van Dyke: https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-betsNYT “The Opinions” podcast: “The Rich Don't Play by the Rules. So Why Should I?” https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000010849055/the-rich-dont-play-by-the-rules-so-why-should-i.htmlHasn Piker on Twitch: https://www.twitch.tv/hasanabiNew Yorker: Jia Tolentino: https://www.newyorker.com/contributors/jia-tolentinoNYT: Nadja Spiegelman: https://www.nytimes.com/by/nadja-spiegelmanJia Tolentino on X: https://x.com/jiatolentinoGarry Kasparov on X: https://x.com/kasparov63Prof G Media: https://www.profgmedia.com/Kids Investment Club: https://www.kidsinvestmentclub.com/Time stamps:0:00 Intro1:18 Naval's $500 VC Fund Explained5:54 Should You Trust Critics With 2K Followers?7:21 Learn By Betting — Jason's Philosophy10:10 Northwest Registered Agent - Get more when you start your business with Northwest. In 10 clicks and 10 minutes, you can form your company and walk away with a real business identity — Learn more at https://www.northwestregisteredagent.com/twist12:30 The Maduro Polymarket Scandal13:28 Should the Military Bet on Missions?19:55 LinkedIn Jobs - Hire right, the first time. Post your first job and get $100 off towards your job post at https://LinkedIn.com/twist29:32 NYT Defends Theft & "Social Murder"30:28 There Is No Moral Equivalence33:41 The Nepo Baby Behind the Article35:42 Prof G's "Resist & Unsubscribe" Movement37:54 Walk The Walk — Hasan, Bernie & Performative Outrage44:49 Teaching Kids About Money48:21 The Rich Get Richer & The Poor Stay PoorOff Duty Recommendations“The Complete Maus” by Art Spiegelman: https://www.amazon.com/Complete-Maus-Art-Spiegelman/dp/0679406417“Thinking in Bets” by Annie Duke: https://www.amazon.com/Thinking-Bets-Making-Smarter-Decisions/dp/0735216355“Queen of Chess” trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8pmJgtLKBXgGreenlight app: https://greenlight.com/Subscribe to the TWiST500 newsletter: https://ticker.thisweekinstartups.comCheck out the TWIST500: https://www.twist500.comSubscribe to This Week in Startups on Apple: https://rb.gy/v19fcpFollow Lon:X: https://x.com/lonsFollow Jason:X: https://twitter.com/JasonLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jasoncalacanisvCheck out all our partner offers: https://partners.launch.co/Great TWIST interviews: Will Guidara, Eoghan McCabe, Steve Huffman, Brian Chesky, Bob Moesta, Aaron Levie, Sophia Amoruso, Reid Hoffman, Frank Slootman, Billy McFarlandCheck out Jason's suite of newsletters: https://substack.com/@calacanisFollow TWiST:Twitter: https://twitter.com/TWiStartupsYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/thisweekinInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thisweekinstartupsTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@thisweekinstartupsSubstack: https://twistartups.substack.com

Bobby and Eddie look at some of the luckiest moments in entertainment history, from Elvis at Sun Studio to Justin Bieber being discovered on YouTube, and the chance breaks that helped launch stars like Harrison Ford, Charlize Theron, Chris Pratt, and Matthew McConaughey. It’s a conversation about timing, opportunity, and the decisions that can change everything. Plus, Bobby talks with Annie Duke to talk about luck, skill, decision-making, and why quitting is not always a bad thing. Annie explains how luck plays a bigger role in life than most people want to admit, why people judge decisions too much by the outcome, and how staying where you are is still a choice. Watch The BobbyCast on Netflix! Follow on Instagram: @TheBobbyCast Follow on TikTok: @TheBobbyCastSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Something in your life isn't working — but should you push through or walk away? First, Anthony Klotz, the researcher who predicted the Great Resignation, explains what really drives us to quit and when staying put is the smarter bet. Then former pro poker player Annie Duke makes the case that the best move is often folding before you've lost everything. Sponsored By: Notion — Try Custom Agents now at ⁠notion.com/daily

Anthony Klotz: Jolted Anthony Klotz is an organizational psychologist and Professor of Management at the UCL School of Management. He is the person who both predicted and coined the term “The Great Resignation,” and his groundbreaking research on quitting, work design, and employee performance has made him a leading voice on the future of work. He is the author of Jolted: Why We Quit, When to Stay, and Why It Matters (Amazon, Bookshop)*. Most of us have attempted to support an employee dealing with a tough career moment. Not all the time, but certainly sometimes, we see those moments coming. When an employee is dealing with a big jolt – or about to – this conversation with Anthony will show you how to help. Key Points Jolts have an outsized influence on people's overall relationship with their work. Managers play a deciding role in how people respond to jolts and are in the best position to insulate the negative effects and amplify the positive effects. Managers can often anticipate and predict jolts to employees. The plans leaders have often become the jolts that others experience. If people can make sense of a jolting event, they are better able to deal with it constructively. The perception of how fair and event is and how fair the process was leading up to the event massively impacts how people perceive it. A clear explanation of why change is happening and what it means can substantially minimize the negative effects of career jolts. The tendency for organizations to delay bad news often is counterproductive to helping managers and employees navigate jolts. Partnership with others (managers, friends, family members) helps most of us better process what we might otherwise attempt to do alone. Resources Mentioned Jolted: Why We Quit, When to Stay, and Why It Matters (Amazon, Bookshop)* by Anthony Klotz Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes Engaging People Through Change, with Cassandra Worthy (episode 571) How to Quit Bad Stuff Faster, with Annie Duke (episode 607) Stop Solving Your Team's Problems, with Elizabeth Lotardo (episode 764) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

Richard Graves is joined by Jackson Polk, Director of Sports Science at the University of Southern California (USC), for a conversation that covers the full spectrum of what it actually means to do this job well, from wrangling a thousand Catapult metrics down to the handful that matter, to the perhaps surprising conclusion that conversation might be your most powerful tool. Jackson's path into sports science isn't the conventional one. He started as a student videographer with Oklahoma football, found himself drawn to the patterns hiding in data, and taught himself enough statistics and analytics to make coaches stop and listen. That curiosity eventually took him from Norman, Oklahoma, to Los Angeles, where he's spent the past four years building USC football's sports science programme from the ground up. What makes this episode stand out is Jackson's willingness to be honest about uncertainty, about AI, about his own mistakes, and about the limits of any single metric or method. He's equally at home referencing Principal Component Analysis and the TV show Veep, and that breadth of thinking is what makes him worth listening to. Whether you work in elite sport, study sports science, or just want to understand what goes into keeping a college football roster performing at its best, there's plenty here to take away. In This Episode You Will Learn Why reducing Catapult's thousand-plus metrics down to a focused few, Player Load, sprint volume, and repeat sprint exposures, actually produces better decisions than trying to monitor everything How Jackson uses principal component analysis to build confidence in the data he's presenting to coaches and athletes The "iceberg" model of athlete monitoring: what data can tell you, and what only a direct conversation will uncover Why practice periodisation and load management have been one of USC's biggest organisational wins, and how PlayerLoad underpins that planning How force plates (via VALD/ForceDecks) and velocity-based training tools like Perch complement GPS data to reveal readiness on any given day The case for teaching college athletes sound recovery habits early, so they're not spending their rookie contracts figuring out what works How Jackson thinks about AI in sports science: where it's useful, where to be cautious, and why it's only as good as the data it's trained on Why communication, not technology, is the cornerstone of an effective sports science operation, and how to make data digestible for coaches under pressure The value of building a culture where experimentation and failure are treated as learning, not liability Lessons from Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke on separating process from outcome, applied directly to sports science decision-making About Jackson Polk Jackson Polk is the Director of Sports Science for USC Trojans football, a role he was elevated to in 2024 after serving as Assistant Director from 2022–23. He joined the USC support staff in March 2022, bringing with him an unconventional background that blends mathematics, data science, and a deep passion for American football. His journey began at the University of Oklahoma, where he spent four seasons as a student videographer before becoming a volunteer performance analyst. While at OU, he co-founded the Oklahoma Sports and Data Analytics Club, which went on to win the Pro Football Focus Analytics Blitz contest. He completed his bachelor's degree in mathematics at Oklahoma in 2021 and subsequently pursued a master's in data science and analytics. At USC, Jackson has been responsible for building the football programme's sports science infrastructure, integrating GPS monitoring, force plate testing, and load management into daily practice planning. He holds an MBA alongside his analytical credentials, and his work sits at the intersection of data science and high-performance sport. FREE 7d SCIENCE FOR SPORT ACADEMY TRIAL SIGN UP NOW: https://bit.ly/SFSepisode241 ​ Learn Quicker & More Effectively ​ Optimise Your Athletes' Recovery ​ Position Yourself As An Expert To Your Athletes And Naturally Improve Buy-In ​ Reduce Your Athletes' Injury Ratese ​ Save 100's Of Dollars A Year That Would Otherwise Be Spent On Books, Courses And More ​ Improve Your Athletes' Performance ​ Advance Forward In Your Career, Allowing You To Earn More Money And Work With Elite-Level Athletes ​ Save Yourself The Stress & Worry Of Constantly Trying To Stay Up-To-Date With Sports Science Research

Anthony Klotz believes we're just one event away from quitting our jobs. Anthony is a professor of organizational behavior at University College London's School of Management and the person who coined the phrase, “the Great Resignation.” He's also author of the book, Jolted: Why We Quit, When to Stay, and Why It Matters. Anthony's research shows just how much leaders and employees need to learn about quitting. Employees, you have more options than you think. And leaders, you can pick up some important tips on how to manage employee resignations a whole lot better. Interviewing, hiring, and onboarding are a key part of an employee's success and a leader's responsibilities. And this book shares tips on all of it. Related Links New Research on How to Get Workplace Rituals Right Research: To Retain Employees, Promote Them Before the Job Market Heats Up Interview with Annie Duke, author of the book, Quit The Team Learn more about host, Gayle Allen, and producer, Rob Mancabelli, here. Support the Podcast If you like the show, please rate and review it on iTunes or wherever you subscribe, and tell a friend or family member about the show. Subscribe Click here and then scroll down to see a sample of sites where you can subscribe.

We spend a surprising amount of mental energy agonizing over decisions that ultimately don't matter very much — what to order at a restaurant, which email to answer first, or which option might be “slightly better.” Meanwhile, the truly important decisions in life often don't get the thoughtful attention they deserve. Annie Duke says that's because most people misunderstand how good decision making actually works. Annie is a former professional poker champion who now advises organizations and leaders on how to make smarter choices under uncertainty. She is also the author of How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices (https://amzn.to/3OQgGIF). In our conversation, she explains why we get stuck overthinking small decisions, why big decisions are often harder than they should be, and how adopting a more strategic way of thinking about choices can dramatically improve the outcomes we experience in life and work. PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS QUINCE: Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last! Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Quince.dom/sysk ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. Now available in Canada, too! SHOPIFY: See less carts go abandoned with Shopify and their Shop Pay button! Sign up for your $1 per month trail and start selling today at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Shopify.com/sysk⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ EXPEDITION UNKOWN: We love the Expedition Unknown podcast from Discovery! Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nir Eyal: Beyond Belief Nir Eyal writes, consults, and teaches about the intersection of psychology, technology, and business. He is the author of two bestselling books, Hooked and Indistractable, selling more than a million copies and translated in over 30 languages. He is the author of the new book, Beyond Belief: The Science-Backed Way to Stop Limiting Yourself and Achieve Breakthrough Results (Amazon, Bookshop)*. Most of us recognize that a huge part of what motivates us – or not – is our own thinking. In this conversation, Nir and I explore where our beliefs get in the way and how we can align them just a bit to help us move forward. Key Points A sentence starting with “I am…” can be among the most dangerous in any language. Often, our beliefs limit us. Belief is the foundation of the motivation triangle that includes benefit and behavior. Yet, we often overlook beliefs. Curt Richter's study of rats in the 1950s shows how an animal's belief system can massively influence its behavior. The real question isn't “Is this belief true?” but rather, “Does this belief serve me?” You can choose beliefs based on usefulness, not certainty. Difficulty may mean we are not cut out for something, but it might also be evidence of growth. Too often, we quit too soon. Progress comes from consistent action, not perfect plans. Resources Mentioned Beyond Belief: The Science-Backed Way to Stop Limiting Yourself and Achieve Breakthrough Results (Amazon, Bookshop)* by Nir Eyal. Interview Notes Download my interview notes in PDF format (free membership required). Related Episodes How to Win the Long Game When the Short-Term Seems Bleak, with Dorie Clark (episode 550) How to Quit Bad Stuff Faster, with Annie Duke (episode 607) How to Better Manage Your Emotions, with Ethan Kross (episode 719) Discover More Activate your free membership for full access to the entire library of interviews since 2011, searchable by topic. To accelerate your learning, uncover more inside Coaching for Leaders Plus.

The mindset of a poker pro can now be applied outside of a narrow game.In Episode #517 of 'Meanderings', Juan & I discuss: Annie Duke's 'Thinking In Bets' book and how the poker mindset can reshape everyday decision-making, why focusing on process over outcomes matters, how using AI as a sounding board revealed hidden risk-taking in my own finances, testing assumptions in small experiments before going all-in, how arbitrage opportunities appear with prediction markets and why clarity on desired outcomes should drive bet-sizing. No support for this week so no beanie either. Also my laptop died suddenly hence the rather curt cut off at the end. Luckily we were almost done anyway phew. Stan Link: https://stan.store/meremortalsTimeline: (00:00:00) Intro(00:03:22) Outcome vs process: luck, good decisions, and post mortems(00:09:16) Poker as repeated high impact decisions and learning while folding(00:12:45) Symmetry, asymmetry, and spotting obviously bad bets(00:18:34) Focus on decision quality, not results: lessons from early poker hands(00:23:34) Plans that fail from wrong models: refining sell strategies(00:28:15) Designing a simple, robust framework: time, percentage, and mean reversion(00:31:28) Support break and playful side bets (brief interlude)(00:31:59) Defining enough: goals, asymmetry, and chasing deltas(00:35:18) Context is king: life design vs maximising returns(00:38:56) Lifestyle upgrades vs status buys(00:42:39) Comparing lives you don't want(00:45:14) Test your dreams: mini retirements and truth over fantasy(00:48:25) Prediction markets 101: from politics to Eurovision(00:51:08) Arbitrage basics: finding edge across bookmakers(00:56:24) Overconfidence, Dunning Kruger and too much information(01:01:02) Avoiding tilt: energy, time, and knowing when to walk away(01:03:27) AI flights of fancy: unified physics and healthy scepticism(01:05:01) Wrap up: from thinking in bets to betting on ideas Connect with Mere Mortals:Website: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/Discord: https://discord.gg/jjfq9eGReUTwitter/X: https://twitter.com/meremortalspodsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/meremortalspodcasts/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@meremortalspodcastsValue 4 Value Support:Boostagram: https://www.meremortalspodcasts.com/supportPaypal: https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/meremortalspodcast

Richard Lederer, a prolific writer and UT columnist discusses his approach to writing, emphasizing the importance of maintaining humanity in technology and AI. He mentions his 65 books and his upcoming 66th, tentatively titled "I Write Therefore I Am." Richard also shares his involvement in local theater and his role as a senior instructor at Oasis. He advises aspiring journalists to pursue their passions with dedication. The conversation highlights Richard's love for puns and his family's success in poker, including his children Annie Duke and Howard Lederer.About Spotlight and Cloudcast Media  "Spotlight On The Community" is the longest running community podcast in the country, continuously hosted by Drew Schlosberg for 20 years.  "Spotlight" is part of Cloudcast Media's line-up of powerful local podcasts, telling the stories, highlighting the people, and celebrating the gravitational power of local.   For more information on Cloudcast and its shows and cities served, please visit www.cloudcastmedia.us. Cloudcast Media | the national leader in local podcasting.   About Mission Fed Credit Union  A community champion for over 60 years, Mission Fed Credit Union with over $6 billion in member assets, is the Sponsor of Spotlight On The Community, helping to curate connectivity, collaboration, and catalytic conversations.  For more information on the many services for San Diego residents, be sure to visit them at https://www.missionfed.com/

Summary In this episode, Andy talks with Wharton economist Judd Kessler, author of Lucky by Design: The Hidden Economics You Need to Get More of What You Want. If you have ever looked at someone else's career success and thought, "They just got lucky," this conversation will give you a new lens. Judd introduces the idea of "hidden markets," the informal rules and systems that shape who gets opportunities, access, and scarce resources, even when money is not changing hands. They explore how leaders can evaluate allocation rules using Judd's three Es (equitable, efficient, and easy), why first come, first served "races" often reward availability more than merit, and how waiting lists can quietly shift costs onto the people least able to pay them. You will also hear Judd's "settle for silver" strategy, a practical way to make smarter choices in competitive markets, plus a thoughtful parenting angle on teaching kids to notice rules and incentives early. If you're looking for a fresh, research-backed perspective on how hidden rules shape who gets opportunities at work and in life, this episode is for you! Sound Bites "The goal of the book is to get people to start to recognizing these markets all around us." "In most of these markets, they play by a simple rule that we all understand, which is if you're willing to pay for the thing, then you get it." "Is the way that we're deciding who gets what... is it equitable? Is it efficient? And is it easy for market participants?" "I open my calendar and I see all these recurring meetings on my calendar, recurring meetings that were set up years or months ago. That's first in time, first in right." "If you understand the rules and develop strategies to get what you want from the market, then you actually can be one of the handful that actually gets the thing, that desirable outcome, and then it will look like you got lucky." "It's always going to be the folks who are in the market winning who are always going to think that it's fair." "Once you start thinking like, how am I actually allocating these things? That's when you've put on that market designer hat." "They'll come to you kind of with half-baked ideas because they know if they wait later on until they can fully bake the idea that the resources or the fun parts of the project might already be gone." "Part of what the Settle for Silver / Go for Gold Strategy is forcing you to do, is to think seriously about what you want and why you want it." "You, as a parent, you are designing the markets that your kids play in all the time." "We're not breaking the rules, but we are figuring out what they are so that we can put ourselves in a good position, and that's going to serve you well." "Maybe by being in the office, you are signaling your dedication to the firm that you're available for all of these opportunities." "If it's something that anybody can do, like send a quick email, right? That's, it's not actually costly. Anybody could send that email even if they're not truly dedicated and eager for the opportunity." "You cannot get all three E's for sure in any allocation mechanism. There's always going to be tradeoffs." Chapters 00:00 Introduction 01:41 Start of Interview 01:49 Growing Up and Thinking About Luck 03:00 Introducing Hidden Markets 07:10 The Three E's: Equitable, Efficient, and Easy 08:08 Live Event Tickets as a Case Study 12:50 High Frequency Trading and Hidden Races 15:21 Common Misunderstandings of the Three E's 17:04 Races Inside Organizations and Project Teams 20:25 Proximity, Signaling, and Opportunity at Work 23:03 Are We Selecting for the Right Behavior? 25:41 Stepping Back to Evaluate Your Own Systems 25:52 Colorado River Water Rights and Recurring Meetings 29:09 The Settle for Silver Strategy 30:57 The French Laundry Reservation Story 32:51 Settle for Silver in College Admissions 37:22 Helping Kids Recognize Rules and Incentives 41:03 End of Interview 41:32 Andy Comments After the Interview 44:34 Outtakes Learn More You can learn more about Judd and his work at JuddBKessler.com/book. For more learning on this topic, check out: Episode 265, a short video episode Andy put together about the topic of luck. Check it out! Episode 339 with Katy Milkman. Katy is the person who gave Andy the heads-up about Judd's book. In episode 339, they talk about her book How to Change: The Science of Getting from Where You Are to Where You Want to Be. It's a great discussion with another researcher who knows how to make the learning practical for all of us. Episode 372 with Annie Duke. Annie is a former world champion poker player who is a big fan of Judd's book. How does a poker player think about luck? Check out episode 372 to find out! Pass the PMP Exam This Year If you or someone you know is thinking about getting PMP certified, we've put together a helpful guide called The 5 Best Resources to Help You Pass the PMP Exam on Your First Try. We've helped thousands of people earn their certification, and we'd love to help you too. It's totally free, and it's a great way to get a head start. Just go to 5BestResources.PeopleAndProjectsPodcast.com to grab your copy. I'd love to help you get your PMP this year! Join Us for LEAD52 I know you want to be a more confident leader–that's why you listen to this podcast. LEAD52 is a global community of people like you who are committed to transforming their ability to lead and deliver. It's 52 weeks of leadership learning, delivered right to your inbox, taking less than 5 minutes a week. And it's all for free. Learn more and sign up at GetLEAD52.com. Thanks! Thank you for joining me for this episode of The People and Projects Podcast! Talent Triangle: Power Skills Topics: Luck, Hidden Markets, Behavioral Economics, Leadership, Decision Making, Resource Allocation, Organizational Design, Career Strategy, Signaling, Systems Thinking, Equity, Project Management The following music was used for this episode: Music: Echo by Alexander Nakarada License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license Music: Fashion Corporate by Frank Schroeter License (CC BY 4.0): https://filmmusic.io/standard-license

Jonathan and Brad delve into the phases of financial independence, emphasizing that progress isn't always linear and can be exciting. They highlight the importance of automating finances and conducting expense audits to gain control over your financial situation. Key Tactical Takeaways Conduct a 30-Day Expense Audit: Assess and record all expenses over a month to identify spending habits. Automate Your Savings: Set up automatic transfers to savings or investment accounts to ensure consistent saving with minimal effort. Engage with Local FI Groups: Join or establish local financial independence groups to exchange knowledge, resources, and support within your community. Understand Your Financial Health: Create an income statement to analyze all incoming and outgoing funds regularly. Core Rules & Formulas Rule/Formula Description 30-Day Audit Record all income and expenses for 30 days to gauge spending habits. Autopilot Savings System Automate savings and bill payments to reduce active management. Expense Prioritization Focus on reducing debt first, especially high-interest credit card debt. Investment Strategy Choose low-cost index funds or ETFs with low expense ratios for long-term growth. Tools, Accounts, or Strategies Mentioned Tool/Strategy Description FI Friends Travel Community-based travel planning for FI enthusiasts. Autopay Systems Automatic bill payment setup for consistent financial management. Low-Cost Index Funds Investing in funds that track market indices to minimize fees.     Resources & References FI Friends Travel Episode 472: "The Cure for the Boring Middle" Episode 262: "Thinking in Bets with Annie Duke"

Victor's job—at its core—is to change the world. But he feels like he's plateaued within his large humanitarian and development organization, and is now on the verge of jumping ship. On this episode of How To!, Annie Duke, author of Quit: The Power Of Knowing When to Walk Away, helps Victor decide if he should recommit to his current job or move on to something else. She explains the cognitive biases that prevent us from quitting and reveals why most of us quit things far too late.

Victor's job—at its core—is to change the world. But he feels like he's plateaued within his large humanitarian and development organization, and is now on the verge of jumping ship. On this episode of How To!, Annie Duke, author of Quit: The Power Of Knowing When to Walk Away, helps Victor decide if he should recommit to his current job or move on to something else. She explains the cognitive biases that prevent us from quitting and reveals why most of us quit things far too late. 

Annie Duke — former professional poker player, decision strategist, and bestselling author — joins us for a deep conversation about why smart people so often make bad decisions. Annie explains why misinterpretation is more dangerous than misinformation, why data is often true but misleading, and how our brains are wired for certainty in a probabilistic world. From real-world media examples to investing, health decisions, and AI-generated insights, this episode explores how explanations feel satisfying — even when they're wrong.   Important links: Substack: https://newsletter.osv.llc/ Annie's website: https://www.annieduke.com/  

Back when I first worked with Jana Werner at Tesco Bank, I saw firsthand how a crisis could be a crucible for innovation and transformation. Her ability to unlock potential in even the most challenged teams was unforgettable. Now, teaming up with Phil Le-Brun—a transformational leader I came to know through his work at McDonald's—they've co-authored The Octopus Organization, a guide for thriving in an age of continuous transformation.In this episode, we go behind the scenes of their book and explore the anti-patterns that hold organizations back, the behaviors leaders must unlearn, and the mindset shifts required to succeed when change never stops. Whether you're a CEO, change agent, or team lead, you'll leave with small, actionable experiments to start evolving your organization—today.Key TakeawaysUnlearning blame-based leadership: Shifting focus from fixing people to fixing systems unlocks performance and trust.Spotting anti-patterns in everyday behavior: Habits like jargon, silos, and avoidance subtly block progress.Embracing uncertainty in leadership: Probabilistic thinking builds better decisions and psychological safety.Driving transformation through small experiments: Distributed action outperforms top-down mandates.Leading with curiosity in the age of AI: Execs must actively engage with tech to stay relevant and credible.Additional InsightsBehind the book: Why The Octopus Organization centers on 36 anti-patterns and how they uncovered themReal-world leadership stories: Lessons from Tesco Bank, McDonald's, Amazon, and FerrariTransformation fatigue is real: Overengineered change efforts often create fear and resistanceAlignment breakdowns in leadership teams: Many transformations fail because leaders aren't truly on the same pageReframing performance: Asking “what did you stop doing” reveals deeper impact than traditional goalsEpisode Highlights00:00 – Episode RecapJana Werner shares how she took over a struggling tech team, discovered their true strengths, and transformed their performance by rebuilding culture and trust. Phil Le-Brun describes the importance of creating a culture of trust in organizations, allowing people to test ideas and make a real difference.02:46 – Guest Introduction: Jana Werner & Phil Le-BrunBarry O'Reilly introduces guests Jana Werner and Phil Le-Brun, describing their collaboration during times of crisis at Tesco Bank, their leadership backgrounds, and their shared vision for adaptive, purpose-driven organizations as captured in their new book.04:36 – Revitalizing a Demotivated Team at Tesco BankJana Werner narrates how she took over a demotivated technology team, overcame her initial preconceptions, and transformed the group into a top-performing unit by changing culture, empowering individuals, and shifting organizational dynamics.07:07 – Lessons from McDonald's: Balancing Centralization and AgilityPhil Le-Brun explains McDonald's transformation journey, the need to unify local and corporate efforts, and the financial impact of building trust and alignment.10:16 – Learning from Industry LeadersPhil recounts interviews with CEOs like Indra Nooyi and Benedetto Vigna, highlighting that true leadership requires humility, storytelling, and ongoing curiosity.14:14 – Unlearning the Need for CertaintyJana Werner discusses shifting away from needing all the answers and embracing uncertainty, drawing on insights from Annie Duke and other...

Bestselling author, decision strategist, and former professional poker player Annie Duke joins Howard Schweitzer, chief executive officer of Cozen O'Connor Public Strategies, for a conversation on how leaders can improve the quality of their decisions to increase the probability of achieving better outcomes against the backdrop of a world on “tilt.” Together, they unpack common cognitive errors, leadership biases, and everyday decision traps—and how reframing our thinking can help us calibrate choices that maximize our range of positive results.

Annie Duke is a three-time bestselling author, decision strategist, and former professional poker champion. She holds a PhD in cognitive psychology and is co-founder of the Alliance for Decision Education. Annie's latest best-selling book is "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away." In this episode, Annie reveals why knowing when to walk away is the most underrated leadership skill. Drawing on cognitive psychology and real-world coaching with executives and venture capitalists, she breaks down why we're wired to stick with bad decisions, and more importantly, how to override that wiring. Annie explains how sunk costs, identity attachment, and status quo bias conspire to keep us committed past the point of reason. Listen now to stop grinding on goals that don't serve you, and start quitting your way to better outcomes. Find The Leadership Podcast episode 489 on YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts! Watch this Episode on YouTube | Annie Duke on Quitting – Knowing When to Walk Away https://bit.ly/TLP-489 Key Takeaways [02:01] Annie reveals she's an avid tennis player and has a Bernadoodle dog not mentioned in her public bio. [02:54] Annie explains quitting is central to success because decisions are made under uncertainty and even perfect choices have bad outcomes 20% of the time. [06:25] Annie discusses how over-optimism harms decision-making by overestimating both likelihood and quality of good outcomes. [09:41] Annie describes Don Moore's research showing optimistic people just spend more time on unsolvable problems without performing better. [11:44] Annie clarifies that quitting feels too early in the moment but people looking back realize they quit too late. [14:27] Annie explains not quitting creates two problems: pursuing unhelpful goals plus losing opportunity cost of redirected resources. [15:03] Annie recommends using psychological distance through quitting coaches and kill criteria involving mental time travel. [16:19] Annie describes an exercise where executives set six-week benchmarks for underperforming employees, accelerating decisions. [19:38] Annie advises adding "unless" statements to goals since cost-benefit analyses change over time. [24:45] Annie addresses information paralysis by emphasizing the time-versus-accuracy trade-off in decisions. [30:49] Annie acknowledges self-knowledge matters but notes people have competing preferences between short-term wants and long-term values. [33:28] Annie explains how implicit decision-making allows bias to highlight factors supporting desired conclusions. [36:49] Annie explains explicit frameworks resolve short-term versus long-term conflicts by creating future accountability. [37:57] Annie tells negotiation clients every deal can be broken, paralleling keeping quitting as an option. [38:30] Annie addresses opportunity cost neglect where people focus on immediate goals without considering sacrifices. [44:32] Annie connects quitting to innovation since minimal starting information requires flexibility to pivot. [46:22] And remember…"If at first you don't succeed, try again, then quit, there's no point in being a damn fool about it." - W.C. fields. Quotable Quotes "When you make decisions to start things, you are making those decisions under conditions of uncertainty." "When you're thinking about quitting, it will generally feel like it's too early. But when you're looking at someone from the outside, if you're coaching, it'll feel like they're too late." "We quit way too late, as judged by our happiness." "When we don't quit something that we ought to quit, we have a double problem. One problem is that we're doing something that isn't helping us achieve our goals. And the other problem is an opportunity cost problem." "You don't want the goal itself to become an object because it is a representation of a cost benefit analysis." "In order to be a really good innovator, you have to build in this whole idea of quit." "Every deal can be broken, and even if you break it's not broken." These are the books mentioned in this episode Resources Mentioned The Leadership Podcast | theleadershippodcast.com Sponsored by | www.darley.com Rafti Advisors. LLC | www.raftiadvisors.com Self-Reliant Leadership. LLC | selfreliantleadership.com Annie Duke Website | www.annieduke.com Annie Duke X | @annieduke Annie Duke Facebook | www.facebook.com/AnnieDukeAuthor Annie Duke LinkedIn | www.linkedin.com/in/annie-duke-30ab2b5/ Annie Duke Instagram | @_annieduke

Happy Holidays! Erica shares her annual list of favorite business books of the year in her final episode of 2025. 00:00 Welcome 00:50 Holiday Greetings and Year-End Reflections 01:19 Favorite Business Books of 2025 03:34 Book 1: Quit by Annie Duke 05:54 Book 2: Big Magic by Elizabeth Gilbert 08:14 Book 3: Marketing Made Simple by Donald Miller 09:38 Book 4: The Five Types of Wealth by Sahil Bloom 12:10 Book 5: Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement by Cody Garrett and Sean Mullaney 15:55 Honorable Mentions: Non-Business Reads 20:42 Holiday Wishes and Conclusion   ____________________ Books & Resources Referenced: Quit by Annie Duke | https://a.co/d/hoP7fHF Big Magic | https://a.co/d/0k4QNgJ Marketing Made Simple by Donald Miller | https://a.co/d/1UZyRh2 The 5 Types of Wealth | https://a.co/d/4ZLwpLH Tax Planning To and Through Early Retirement by Cody Garrett and Sean Mullaney | https://a.co/d/cjPPMcm   The Comfort Crisis by Michael Easter | https://a.co/d/cQ2KL08 The Wedding People by Alison Espach | https://a.co/d/j2Ce3mk Long Way Down by Jason Reynolds | https://a.co/d/4PtWU8T   Ep69 - SEP vs Solo 401k with Sean Mullaney, CPA ____________________ Connect with Erica | LinkedIn | Website | Newsletter  

The Author Events Series presents Steven Pinker  | When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows . . . In Conversation with Annie Duke Common knowledge is necessary for coordination, for making arbitrary but complementary choices like driving on the right, using paper currency, and coalescing behind a political leader or movement. It's also necessary for social coordination: everything from rendezvousing at a time and place to speaking the same language to forming enduring relationships of friendship, romance, or authority. Humans have a sixth sense for common knowledge, and we create it with signals like laughter, tears, blushing, eye contact, and blunt speech. But people also go to great lengths to avoid common knowledge-to ensure that even if everyone knows something, they can't know that everyone else knows they know it. And so we get rituals like benign hypocrisy, veiled bribes and threats, sexual innuendo, and pretending not to see the elephant in the room. Pinker shows how the hidden logic of common knowledge can make sense of many of life's enigmas: financial bubbles and crashes, revolutions that come out of nowhere, the posturing and pretense of diplomacy, the eruption of social media shaming mobs and academic cancel culture, the awkwardness of a first date. Artists and humorists have long mined the intrigues of common knowledge, and Pinker liberally uses their novels, jokes, cartoons, films, and sitcom dialogues to illuminate social life's tragedies and comedies.  Consistently riveting in explaining the paradoxes of human behavior, When Everyone Knows That Everyone Knows... invites us to understand the ways we try to get into each other's heads and the harmonies, hypocrisies, and outrages that result. Steven Pinker is the Johnstone Professor of Psychology at Harvard University. He has won many prizes for his teaching, his research on language, cognition, and social relations, and his twelve books, including The Language Instinct, How the Mind Works, The Better Angels of Our Nature, Enlightenment Now, and Rationality. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Sciences, a two-time Pulitzer Prize finalist, and one of Time's ''100 Most Influential People in the World Today.'' Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners, a seed stage venture fund. Annie's latest book, Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, was released in 2022 from Portfolio, a Penguin Random House imprint. Her previous book, Thinking in Bets, is a national bestseller. As a former professional poker player, she has won more than $4 million in tournament poker. During her career, Annie won a World Series of Poker bracelet and is the only woman to have won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions and the NBC National Poker Heads-Up Championship. She retired from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional poker player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania, where she earned her master's degree. In 2021 she returned to her alma mater as a Visiting Scholar, where she also teaches executive education. In 2023 Annie completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology. Because you love Author Events, please make a donation when you register for this event to ensure that this series continues to inspire Philadelphians. Books will be available for purchase at the library on event night! All tickets are non-refundable. (recorded 9/25/2025)

On today's episode, Kyle Grieve discusses powerful mental models from systems thinking and mathematics and applies them directly to investing and life. He breaks down concepts like feedback loops, kill criteria, scale, compounding, randomness, and regression to the mean to show how they shape real-world outcomes. He'll also share practical frameworks for improving decision-making, managing uncertainty, and positioning your portfolio to benefit from long-term compounding. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00:00 - Intro 00:03:23 - How feedback loops stabilize or reinforce outcomes in investing 00:10:11 - How kill criteria help you make predetermined decisions in a noisy world 00:14:09 - Why the cone of uncertainty is useful for evaluating conviction and position sizing 00:17:33 - How scale changes the behavior, costs, and risks of a growing business 00:25:06 - How algorithms clarify which inputs drive the conclusions you rely on 00:30:20 - How to evaluate a company's ability to reach critical mass and become self-sustaining 00:35:35 - The hidden forms of compounding that are just as powerful as the visible ones 00:40:02 - Why power laws should influence your portfolio concentration 00:43:12 - How randomness shapes investing outcomes, and how to take advantage of it 00:51:24 - Why regression to the mean matters during periods of strong or weak performance Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Buy Thinking in Systems ⁠here⁠. Buy The Great Mental Models Vol 3: Systems and Mathematics ⁠here⁠. Buy Quit ⁠here⁠. Listen to my interview with Annie Duke ⁠here⁠. Follow Kyle on ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠. Related ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ mentioned in the podcast. Ad-free episodes on our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Simple Mining Human Rights Foundation Unchained Onramp HardBlock Amazon Ads reMarkable Alexa+ Linkedin Talent Solutions Public.com Vanta Netsuite Shopify Abundant Mines Horizon Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Not all bad outcomes result from bad decisions just like not all good outcomes come from good decisions. This simple thought speaks to the importance of the process of making decisions and not just their results, particularly when any amount of luck is involved. We probably don't want to repeat bad decisions just because last time we got lucky and things worked out great! On this episode of The Behavioral Divide, presented by Avantis Investors®, Professor Hal Hershfield speaks with two guests about the science of decision making and tips they've found effective for improving our approach to big decisions. Joining Hal for this discussion are former poker pro, best-selling author, and decision strategist Annie Duke along with Ben Felix, CIO of PWL Capital and one of the hosts of the popular Rational Reminder podcast. They cover how to implement better processes for decision making, how to reduce the risk of behavioral bias in your decisions, how to judge the quality of your decisions, and more. If you enjoy the show, please subscribe or let us know by giving our series a five-star rating. We'd also love to hear from you. To join in on the discussion, send us a note at BehavioralDivide@AvantisInvestors.com. Important Disclosures The views expressed in this presentation are the speaker's own and not necessarily those of American Century Investments. This presentation is for general information only and is not intended to provide investment, tax or legal advice or recommendations for any particular situation or type of retirement plan. Please consult with a financial, tax or legal advisor on your own particular circumstances. Hal Hershfield is not affiliated with American Century Investments. Follow us on social media: LinkedIn: https://a.vant.is/4ppUSVI X: https://a.vant.is/4psIwMw Subscribe to The Behavioral Divide podcast: Spotify: https://a.vant.is/3IlDEIy Apple: https://a.vant.is/3IgEhDe

Stewart Butterfield is the co-founder of Slack and Flickr, two of the most influential products in internet history. After selling Slack to Salesforce in one of tech's biggest acquisitions, he's been focused on family, philanthropy, and creative projects. In this rare podcast appearance, Stewart shares the product frameworks and leadership principles that most contributed to his success. From “utility curves” to “the owner's delusion” to “hyper-realistic work-like activities,” his thoughts on craft, strategy, and leadership apply to anyone building products or leading teams.We discuss:1. Hyper-realistic work-like activities2. The owner's delusion3. Utility curves4. “Don't make me think”5. “We don't sell saddles here”6. Tilting your umbrella7. When to pivot—Brought to you by:WorkOS—Modern identity platform for B2B SaaS, free up to 1 million MAUsMetronome—Monetization infrastructure for modern software companiesLovable—Build apps by simply chatting with AI—Transcript: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/slack-founder-stewart-butterfield—My biggest takeaways (for paid newsletter subscribers): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/i/178320649/my-biggest-takeaways-from-this-conversation—Where to find Stewart Butterfield:• X: https://x.com/stewart• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/butterfield—Where to find Lenny:• Newsletter: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com• X: https://twitter.com/lennysan• LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lennyrachitsky/—In this episode, we cover:(00:00) Introduction to Stewart Butterfield(04:58) Stewart's current life and reflections(06:44) Understanding utility curves(10:13) The concept of divine discontent(15:11) The importance of taste in product design(19:03) Tilting your umbrella(28:32) Balancing friction and comprehension(45:07) The value of constant dissatisfaction(47:06) Embracing continuous improvement(50:03) The complexity of making things work(54:27) Parkinson's law and organizational growth(01:03:17) Hyper-realistic work-like activities(01:13:23) Advice on when to pivot(01:18:36) The importance of generosity in leadership(01:26:34) The owner's delusion—Referenced:• Slack: https://slack.com• Flickr: https://www.flickr.com• Cal Henderson on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/iamcal• Blok: https://blok.so• Brandon Velestuk on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/brandon-velestuk-6018721b• Magic Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magic_Link• Ticketmaster: https://www.ticketmaster.com• John Collison on X: https://x.com/collision• Patrick Collison on X: https://x.com/patrickc• Sundar Pichai on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/sundarpichai• Three Questions with Slack's CEO: https://www.technologyreview.com/2014/11/21/170330/three-questions-with-slacks-ceo• Six Sigma: https://www.6sigma.us• What is kaizen and how does Toyota use it?: https://mag.toyota.co.uk/kaizen-toyota-production-system• John Collison's post on X about passion projects: https://x.com/collision/status/1529452415346302976• Parkinson's law: https://www.economist.com/news/1955/11/19/parkinsons-law• We Don't Sell Saddles Here: https://medium.com/@stewart/we-dont-sell-saddles-here-4c59524d650d• Glitch: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glitch_(video_game)• IRC: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IRC• This will make you a better decision-maker | Annie Duke (author of “Thinking in Bets” and “Quit,” former pro poker player): https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/making-better-decisions-annie-duke• The woman behind Canva shares how she built a $42B company from nothing | Melanie Perkins: https://www.lennysnewsletter.com/p/the-making-of-canva• Prisoner's dilemma: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prisoner%27s_dilemma• Stewart Little: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Little• Dharma and Greg: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dharma_%26_Greg• Stewart's post on X referencing “the owner's delusion”: https://x.com/stewart/status/1223286626991796224—Recommended books:• Principles: Life and Work: https://www.amazon.com/Principles-Life-Work-Ray-Dalio/dp/1501124021• Why Nothing Works: Who Killed Progress―and How to Bring It Back: https://www.amazon.com/Why-Nothing-Works-Killed-Progress_and/dp/154170021X• Positioning: The Battle for Your Mind: https://www.amazon.com/Positioning-Battle-Your-Al-Ries/dp/0071373586• Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away: https://www.amazon.com/Quit-Power-Knowing-When-Walk/dp/0593422996—Production and marketing by https://penname.co/. For inquiries about sponsoring the podcast, email podcast@lennyrachitsky.com.—Lenny may be an investor in the companies discussed. To hear more, visit www.lennysnewsletter.com

I'm excited to revisit this conversation with Annie Duke to the show to talk about her book, How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices. Annie is a former professional poker player turned decision strategist who blends cognitive psychology, high-stakes poker, and practical frameworks to help us make better choices in work and life—even when we don't have all the information. In this conversation, we cover:Luck, Skill, and Outcomes: Annie explains why we need to stop judging our decisions solely by outcomes—and how separating luck from skill leads to better learning and better choices over time. Thinking in Bets and Living with Uncertainty: Drawing from her poker career and academic background, Annie shows how “thinking in bets” helps us navigate uncertainty, manage risk, and make sound decisions even when the long run is a long way off. Simple Decision Tools and Knowledge Tracking: We talk about practical decision processes—like writing down what you knew, what you believed, and what you predicted at the time—to close feedback loops faster and improve your judgment without needing 10,000 repetitions. Escaping Bias, Sunk Costs, and Identity Traps: Annie unpacks how status quo bias, sunk cost fallacy, and “identity-protective cognition” keep us defending past choices instead of seeking truth—and how a better decision process helps us see options more objectively. Confidence, Quitting, and Knowing When to Pivot: We explore how to calibrate confidence, tell the difference between a mountain and a molehill, and decide when perseverance serves you—and when it's wiser (and more productive) to climb back down and choose a different path. Annie's insights take decision-making out of the realm of “go with your gut” and into a practical, repeatable process you can use for everything from small daily choices to major career moves. If you've ever looked back and thought, “If I knew then what I know now…”, this episode will give you tools to reduce those regrets and make more confident, informed decisions going forward. Learn more about Annie and her work at AnnieDuke.com, where you'll find her books, talks, and newsletter, along with ways to connect further. You can also find How to Decide wherever books are sold.Connect with Erik:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠Threads⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Bluesky⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠This Podcast is Powered By:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Descript⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Descript 101⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Castmagic⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Ecamm⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Podpage⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Rodecaster Pro⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Top Productivity Books List⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Episode: Sunk Costs, Opportunity Costs, and Thinking in Terms of Expected ValueHave you ever kept going with something—even when you knew it wasn't worth it—just because you'd already invested so much time, money, or effort? That's the sunk cost fallacy at work.In this episode of The Grow Your Wealthy Mindset, Dr. Elizabeth Chiang explores how sunk costs, opportunity costs, and expected value shape our financial and life decisions. Drawing insights from Annie Duke's Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, you'll learn how to make more rational choices—whether it's deciding to attend a rainy concert, stick with a struggling investment, or stay in an unfulfilling job.You'll learn:What the sunk cost fallacy is—and how it sneaks into your investing and daily choicesWhy we often “throw good money after bad” and how to stop doing itHow opportunity costs help you see what you could be gaining elsewhereHow to use expected value thinking to make smarter, more objective decisionsReal-life examples from investing, research projects, and career choicesUnderstanding these concepts can help you step back, evaluate your options more clearly, and walk away from what's no longer serving you—financially or personally.Mentioned in this episode:Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie DukeThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie DukePlease subscribe and leave a review on your favorite Podcasting platform. Get 12 Financial Mistakes that Keep Physicians from Building Wealth at https://www.growyourwealthymindset.com/12financialmistakes If you want to start your path to financial freedom, start with the Financial Freedom Workbook. Download your free copy today at https://www.GrowYourWealthyMindset.com/fiworkbook Dr. Elisa Chiang is a physician and money coach who helps other doctors reach their financial goals by mastering their money mindset through personalized 1:1 coaching . You can learn more about Elisa at her website or follow her on social media. Website: https://ww.GrowYourWealthyMindset.com Instagram https://www.instagram.com/GrowYourWealthyMindset Facebook https://www.facebook.com/ElisaChiang https://www.facebook.com/GrowYourWealthyMindset YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/WealthyMindsetMD Linked In: www.linkedin.com/in/ElisaChiang Disclaimer: The content provided in the Grow Your Wealthy Mind...

You're frozen. The deadline's approaching. You don't have all the data. Everyone wants certainty. You can't give it. Sound familiar? Maybe it's a hiring decision with three qualified candidates and red flags on each one. Or a product launch where the market research is mixed. Or a career pivot where you can't predict which path leads where. You want more information. More time. More certainty. But you're not going to get it. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals—poker players, venture capitalists, military strategists—consistently make better decisions than the rest of us in exactly these situations. Not because they have more information, but because they've mastered something fundamentally different: they think in probabilities, not certainties. I learned this the hard way—I once created a biometric security algorithm that the NSA reverse-engineered, where I mastered probabilistic thinking perfectly in the technology, then made every wrong bet with the business around it. By the end of this episode, you'll possess a powerful mental toolkit that transforms how you approach uncertainty. You'll learn to estimate likelihoods without perfect data, update your beliefs as new information emerges, make confident decisions when multiple uncertain factors collide, and act decisively even when you can't guarantee the outcome. This is the difference between paralysis and power, between gambling recklessly and betting wisely. What Is Probabilistic Thinking? But what does probabilistic thinking actually entail? At its core, it's the practice of reasoning in terms of likelihoods rather than absolutes—thinking in percentages instead of yes-or-no answers. Instead of asking "Will this work?" you ask "What are the odds this will work, and what are the consequences if it doesn't?" This approach acknowledges that the future is uncertain and that every decision carries risk. By quantifying that uncertainty and weighing it against potential outcomes, you make smarter choices even when you can't eliminate the unknown. The Cost of Demanding Certainty Today's world punishes those who demand certainty before acting. Research from Oracle's 2023 Decision Dilemma study—which surveyed over 14,000 employees and business leaders across 17 countries—found that 86% feel overwhelmed by the amount of data available to them. Rather than clarity, all that information creates decision paralysis. And the paralysis has real consequences. When we can't be certain, we freeze. We endlessly research options, seeking that final piece of data that will guarantee success. We postpone critical decisions, waiting for perfect information that never arrives. Meanwhile, opportunities pass us by, problems grow worse, and competitors who are comfortable with uncertainty move forward. This demand for certainty doesn't just slow us down—it exhausts us. Decision fatigue sets in as we agonize over choices, draining our mental resources until we either make impulsive decisions or avoid deciding altogether. Neither outcome serves us well. What Certainty-Seeking Actually Costs You Here's what it looks like in real life: You're the VP of Marketing. Your CMO wants a decision on next quarter's campaign budget by Friday. You have three agencies to choose from, each with strengths and weaknesses. So you ask for more data. Customer focus groups. Competitive analysis. Agency references. By Wednesday you're drowning in spreadsheets and conflicting opinions. Friday arrives. You still can't be certain which choice is right, so you ask for an extension. Two weeks later, you finally pick one—not because you're confident, but because you're exhausted and the CMO is furious about the delay. The campaign launches late. You've burned political capital. And you still have no idea if you made the right choice. Meanwhile, your competitor's marketing VP looked at the same decision, spent two hours assessing the probabilities, and launched on time. If it works, great. If it doesn't, they'll pivot. They didn't need certainty. They needed enough information to make a good bet. That's the tax you pay for demanding certainty: missed timing, exhausted teams, and decisions made from fatigue rather than judgment. Meanwhile, a small group of professionals thrives in these exact conditions. Professional poker players like Annie Duke understand that good decisions sometimes lead to bad outcomes and bad decisions sometimes get lucky—so they judge their choices by process, not results. Venture capitalists often see that most of their investments will fail, but they bet anyway because one success out of twenty can return the entire fund. Military strategists make life-and-death decisions with incomplete intelligence, not because they're reckless, but because waiting for perfect information means defeat. The difference isn't access to better information. It's the willingness to act on probabilities rather than certainties. How To Make Better Decisions When Nothing Is Certain So how do you actually develop this skill? It's more accessible than you might think. Here are clear strategies to transform how you process uncertainty and make decisions. Think in Ranges, Not Points The first shift in probabilistic thinking is abandoning single-number estimates for ranges of possibility. When most people predict an outcome, they pick one number: "Sales will be $500,000 next quarter" or "This project will take three months." But the world doesn't work that way. Every estimate carries uncertainty, and pretending otherwise sets you up for failure. Professional forecasters think differently. They don't ask "What will happen?" They ask "What's the range of plausible outcomes, and how likely is each?" This approach forces you to acknowledge what you don't know while still making useful predictions. Watch a professional poker player deciding whether to call a bet. They're not thinking "Do I have the best hand?" They're thinking "Given what I've seen, maybe 35% chance I have the best hand, 20% chance my opponent is bluffing, 45% chance they've got me beat." They act on probabilities, not certainties. Steps to implement range thinking: Replace point estimates with probability ranges. When making any prediction, state a range instead of a single number. Instead of "We'll close 50 deals," say "We'll likely close 40-60 deals, with a small chance of 30-70."   Assign rough percentages to your ranges. You don't need mathematical precision—just honest self-assessment. Estimate: "60% chance of 40-50 deals, 30% chance of 50-60, 10% chance outside that range." This forces you to think about likelihood, not just possibility.   Track your estimates against actual outcomes. Keep a simple log of your predictions and what actually happened. Over time, you'll discover if you're consistently over-optimistic, over-cautious, or actually well-calibrated. This feedback loop is how you improve.   Update Your Beliefs with New Evidence One of the most powerful aspects of probabilistic thinking is treating your beliefs as hypotheses, not conclusions. When new information emerges, skilled thinkers update their probability estimates rather than clinging to their original position. This practice—called Bayesian updating after the mathematician Thomas Bayes—is how professionals stay accurate in changing environments. Consider a doctor diagnosing a patient with intermittent chest pain. Initially, based on the patient's age and health history, she estimates a 15% probability of heart disease. Then the EKG comes back with minor abnormalities—not definitive, but concerning. She updates her estimate to 35%. Blood work shows elevated cardiac markers. Now she's at 65%. Each piece of evidence shifts the probability, but none gives absolute certainty. She doesn't wait for 100% certainty to act—she orders more tests and starts precautionary treatment based on her updated 65% estimate. That's Bayesian thinking in action. Financial firms continuously adjust their models as new data arrives. Weather forecasters update storm predictions hourly. In my own work building biometric security systems, we updated our false acceptance and rejection rates constantly—but I failed to apply that same updating framework to the business model itself. The enemy of updating is confirmation bias—our tendency to accept information that supports our existing beliefs and dismiss information that contradicts them. When you're emotionally invested in being right, you'll unconsciously filter evidence to protect your original view. Steps to update your thinking: Start with a baseline probability before you have strong evidence. If you're launching a new product, estimate: "Based on what I know about similar products, there's maybe a 40% chance this succeeds." That's your prior—your starting point before specific evidence comes in.   When new information arrives, ask: "How much should this change my estimate?" Not all evidence is equal. Strong evidence—like actual customer purchases—should move your probability significantly. Weak evidence—like one person's opinion—should barely budge it.   Separate the quality of a decision from the quality of the outcome. This is crucial. A good decision based on sound probabilities can still result in a bad outcome due to chance. Conversely, a terrible decision can get lucky. Judge yourself on whether you correctly assessed the probabilities and acted accordingly, not on whether you "got it right" this time.   Actively seek disconfirming evidence. Force yourself to look for information that contradicts your current view. If you think your strategy will work, deliberately search for reasons it might fail. This counteracts confirmation bias and gives you a more accurate probability estimate.   Make Decisions by Expected Value Probabilistic thinking isn't just about estimating odds—it's about acting on them. The concept of expected value gives you a framework for making decisions when outcomes are uncertain. Expected value multiplies each possible outcome by its probability, then adds them together. It's how professionals decide whether a bet is worth taking. Here's why it matters: sometimes a decision with a low probability of success is still the right choice if the potential payoff is enormous. Venture capitalists know that perhaps 18 out of 20 startups in their portfolio will fail or return little money. But that one company that becomes the next Airbnb or Uber can return 100x their investment—more than covering all the losses. That's positive expected value thinking. Conversely, decisions that seem "safe" can be terrible bets. Playing it safe might give you a 90% chance of mediocre success, but if that 10% downside risk includes catastrophic consequences, the expected value might be negative. This is why you buy insurance: the probability of your house burning down is low, but the cost if it happens is devastating. Think about a parent choosing between schools for their child. Public school is free but overcrowded. Private school costs $20K/year with smaller classes but adds an hour of family stress daily. Charter school is free with innovative curriculum but it's a first-year program with unknowns. There's no guarantee. The better question is expected value: "Given the probabilities and what matters most to us—academic success, family time, financial stability—which bet has the best expected outcome?" Steps for expected value decision-making: List all plausible outcomes for your decision, not just the best and worst. For a job offer, don't just think "great career move" versus "terrible mistake." Consider: "Modest improvement (40%), breakthrough opportunity (20%), lateral move (25%), step backward (10%), complete disaster (5%)."   Assign a rough value to each outcome. This doesn't have to be money—it can be career satisfaction, life quality, time saved, or any currency that matters to you. The key is making the values comparable across outcomes.   Multiply each outcome's value by its probability, then add them up. This gives you the expected value. If the positive expected value option has meaningful downside risk, ask: "Can I survive the worst case?" If yes, it's usually the right bet.   Remember: expected value is about long-term results, not single instances. If you make a high expected value bet and it fails, that doesn't mean you were wrong. Over many decisions, following expected value will outperform any other approach. Trust the math, not the emotional reaction to one outcome.   Practice: The Probability Forecast Journal A practical way to develop your probabilistic thinking is to keep a Probability Forecast Journal. This exercise builds calibration—your ability to accurately assess how confident you should be in your predictions. Here's how to implement it: Choose three areas where you regularly make predictions. These could be work-related (project timelines, sales numbers), personal (will your flight be delayed), or current events (election outcomes).   Each week, make five specific, testable predictions. Write down the prediction and assign a probability. For example: "70% chance the client approves our proposal by Friday" or "85% chance our website traffic increases this month."   After each prediction resolves, record the actual outcome. Did the thing you said had a 70% chance of happening actually happen? Don't judge yourself harshly on any single prediction—remember that a 70% prediction should fail about 30% of the time.   Monthly, analyze your calibration. Look at all predictions where you said "70% confident"—did roughly 70% of them come true? If you're consistently overconfident, you need to adjust. If you're underconfident, you're being too cautious.   The goal isn't perfection—it's calibration. After several months of this practice, you'll notice your ability to assess probabilities improves dramatically. You'll know when you're 60% sure versus 90% sure, and you'll make better decisions as a result. The Rewards Mastering probabilistic thinking is a journey, not a destination. It requires practice, humility about what you don't know, and the courage to act despite uncertainty. But the rewards are substantial. When you think probabilistically, you make faster decisions because you're not paralyzed waiting for certainty that will never come. You become more resilient to failure because you understand that good decisions sometimes have bad outcomes—and that's not a reason to change your approach. You'll find yourself taking calculated risks that others avoid, capturing opportunities that demand action before perfect information arrives. You'll waste less time second-guessing yourself because you've already thought through the probabilities and made your peace with uncertainty. You'll explain your decisions more clearly to others because you can articulate not just what you think will happen, but how confident you are and why. Most importantly, you'll stop confusing confidence with correctness. In a world obsessed with appearing certain, probabilistic thinkers have the courage to say "I'm 65% sure, and that's enough to act." That honesty—with yourself and others—is the foundation of better judgment. Want to see what happens when you master probabilistic thinking in one domain but fail to apply it in another? I wrote about my experience creating a fingerprint recognition algorithm that the NSA reverse-engineered—where I got the technical probabilities right and the business bets completely wrong. [Read the full story here](link to substack). The future will always be uncertain. The question is whether you'll be paralyzed by that uncertainty or empowered by it.   If this helped you think differently about decision-making, I'd really appreciate it if you'd hit the like button and subscribe—it genuinely helps others find this content through the algorithm. And click that notification bell so you don't miss the next episode in this series. If you want to go deeper, I share the behind-the-scenes thinking, mistakes, and extended stories over on Studio Notes on Substack. Paid subscriptions help cover the costs of the team who makes all of this possible—the editing, research, and production work that gets these episodes to you each week. None of it comes to me; it all goes to supporting them. Without this team, there'd be no podcast, no YouTube channel, no articles. So if you find value in this work, that's a meaningful way to keep it going. The future will always be uncertain. The question is whether you'll be paralyzed by it or empowered by it.   Sources Cited In This Episode Oracle Decision Dilemma Study (2023) - Survey of 14,000+ employees and business leaders across 17 countries on data overwhelm and decision paralysis. https://www.oracle.com/uk/cloud/decision-dilemma/ Thinking in Bets - Duke, A. (2018). Portfolio. On judging decisions by process, not outcomes. https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/552885/thinking-in-bets-by-annie-duke/ How to Improve Bayesian Reasoning Without Instruction: Frequency Formats - Gigerenzer, G. & Hoffrage, U. (1995). Psychological Review, 102(4), 684-704. On updating beliefs with evidence. Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk - Kahneman, D. & Tversky, A. (1979). Econometrica, 47(2), 263-291. Prospect Theory foundations.

(0:00) Intro(1:25) About the podcast sponsor: The American College of Governance Counsel(2:12) Start of interview(3:01) Karen's origin story(3:44) Early Career and Transition to Technology(5:40) The Dot-Com Era and her time at Brobeck and later at Orrick.(8:50) Her transition to Prosper Marketplace (Chris Larsen's company) (9:40) Her time at Box, Inc. and Apple *Reference to E179 with Jack Lazar(13:14) Her journey to Venture Capital.(14:16) Joining B Capital (in 2019) and the firm's investment focus(16:16) The nature of B Capital's partnership with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) (19:32) Governance in Early Stage Companies(20:42) Her role as a board partner of her firm. *Reference to VCBA program(23:22) Building Trust in Governance "It starts on day one. And that trust is just, is literally earned through every conversation, every interaction, and certainly every board meeting."(25:41) Founder-Friendly Terms and Market Changes(28:43) The Importance of Governance During Crisis(31:52) CEO Succession and Leadership Transition(37:45) Advisory Boards vs. Fiduciary Boards(40:06) On board observers(44:08) Board Committees and Their Evolution(48:10) The Debate: Stay Private or Go Public(51:37) Books that have greatly influenced her life:Annie Duke's Thinking in Bets (2018)Ray Dalio's Principles (2017)Shoe Dog by Phil Night (2016)(52:00) Her mentors: David Geyer (Brobeck), Aaron Levie (Box), Howard Morgan (B Capital)(52:48) Quotes that she thinks of often or lives her life by: "never cut what you can untie". And the other is "never confuse motion with progress."(53:03) An unusual habit or an absurd thing that she loves. (53:25) The people she most admires(55:50) Diversity on Boards in Venture CapitalKaren Page is a General Partner and Board Partner at B Capital. As a Board Partner, she collaborates with portfolio company leadership, B Capital's investment team and the firm's network of advisors to provide best-in-class strategic guidance You can follow Evan on social media at:X: @evanepsteinLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/epsteinevan/ Substack: https://evanepstein.substack.com/__To support this podcast you can join as a subscriber of the Boardroom Governance Newsletter at https://evanepstein.substack.com/__Music/Soundtrack (found via Free Music Archive): Seeing The Future by Dexter Britain is licensed under a Attribution-Noncommercial-Share Alike 3.0 United States License

This October, we're celebrating 8 years of Behavioral Grooves! To mark the occasion, we're digging into our archives and re-sharing some of our most popular and thought-provoking conversations every Thursday for the next two months. The celebration builds to our Anniversary Event on October 16th in Minneapolis, where fan favorite Nick Epley will lead the audience in a live social experiment and conversation about the science we all love.

“Self-Aware or Self-Deceived? The Values Test That Reveals All” . What if the values you say you lead by are just a story you've rehearsed, and not the truth you actually live?

Part 1: 

In this powerful third appearance, bestselling author and decision strategist Annie Duke dismantles the myth that grit is always good — and makes the case for why strategic quitting is essential for success. Drawing from cognitive science, personal experience, and examples like Muhammad Ali, Dave Chappelle, and Stuart Butterfield (Slack), Duke illustrates how our obsession with persistence blinds us to opportunity costs, sunk cost fallacies, and identity traps.From failed startups to toxic jobs to long-dead relationships, this conversation explores why “quitting on time will feel like quitting too early”, and how tools like turnaround times and kill criteria can save your future. Annie also shares insights into why optimism can distort expected value, how founders sabotage themselves clinging to identity, and what Sears, a bankrupt retailer, can teach us about letting go.This episode is a reality check for dreamers, and a blueprint for making smarter, faster, braver decisions. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Annie Duke—a former professional poker player and renowned author on behavioral science—discusses the science of decision making and how it can be applied to investing with Justin Thomson, head of the T. Rowe Price Investment Institute.

Annie Duke—a former professional poker player and renowned author on behavioral science—discusses the science of decision making and how it can be applied to investing with Justin Thomson, head of the T. Rowe Price Investment Institute.

In this episode, Travis is joined by his producer, Eric, to explore one of the most difficult questions in business, creative work, and personal finance: is it time to double down or to walk away? Using viral memes, classic motivational stories, and plenty of real-world examples, Travis breaks down the difference between grit and the sunk cost fallacy. If you've ever wrestled with whether to keep going or to cut your losses, this conversation gives you actionable strategies—and permission—to make your next decision with confidence. On this episode we talk about: The “three feet from gold” story and why it's not always as motivational as it seems Distinguishing persistence from stubbornness in business and creative pursuits The sunk cost fallacy and how it can keep you on the wrong path for too long Timing, luck, technology, and other factors that determine real success The importance of intuition and asking honest questions when deciding to persist or pivot Annie Duke's book "Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away" and actionable frameworks for tough decisions Top 3 Takeaways 1.  Legendary persistence stories are rare because so few people actually strike gold—sometimes quitting is the healthiest, wealthiest move. 2.  Set clear metrics and timelines: if you're not where you need to be by a set date, give yourself permission to step back and reassess. 3.  Intuition is a powerful guide, but so is honest self-inquiry; journaling and brutal self-questioning can reveal when it's time to change lanes. Notable Quotes "Persistence is great advice—until it's not. The sunk cost fallacy never made anybody wealthy." "You have to be willing to pivot… sometimes persistence is just a fear of letting go and not knowing what comes next." "Set up a metric in your mind… and then if you're still banging your head against the wall at the end, you gotta be willing to pivot." ✖️✖️✖️✖️

UPGRADE TO SYSK PREMIUM! To unlock ad-free listening to over 1,000 episodes plus receive exclusive bonus content, go to ⁠⁠⁠ ⁠https://SYSKPremium.com  How often do you think the average American checks their phone each day? Whatever your guess, you'll probably be shocked by the actual number. This episode kicks off with some eye-opening stats about our cell phone obsession and just how much it's shaping our daily lives. https://www.reviews.org/mobile/cell-phone-addiction/ When it comes to decisions, many of us waste valuable energy stressing over choices that don't even matter. To explore why this happens and how to make smarter choices with less stress, listen as I speak with Annie Duke — former professional poker player, decision-making consultant, and author of How To Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices (https://amzn.to/3OQgGIF). Annie shares practical tools that can transform the way you think about decisions — big and small. Then, we turn to the science of weather. Forecasting has made incredible advances in recent years, and no one knows this better than James Marshall Shepherd, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Professor of Geography and Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Georgia and host of the Weather Geeks podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/weather-geeks/id1373312240). James reveals the fascinating inner workings of weather prediction, why “partly sunny” isn't the same as “partly cloudy,” and how technology is reshaping the way we understand the skies. Finally, let's clear up a common misconception: why shouldn't you drink alcohol while taking antibiotics? Most people assume it cancels out the medication — but that's not the case. Listen as I explain the real reason doctors recommend avoiding alcohol with antibiotics. https://www.mayoclinic.org/healthy-lifestyle/consumer-health/expert-answers/antibiotics-and-alcohol/faq-20057946 PLEASE SUPPORT OUR SPONSORS!!! SHOPIFY: Shopify is the commerce platform for millions of businesses around the world! To start selling today, sign up for your $1 per month trial at⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://Shopify.com/sysk⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ INDEED: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to get your jobs more visibility at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Indeed.com/SOMETHING⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ right now! QUINCE: Keep it classic and cool with long lasting staples from Quince! Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://Quince.com/sysk⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns! HERS: Whether you want to lose weight, grow thicker, fuller hair, or find relief for anxiety, Hers has you covered. Visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://forhers.com/something⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ to get a personalized, affordable plan that gets you! Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send us a textAnnie Duke is a best-selling author, former professional poker player, and an sought-after consultant in the decision-making space.  Her new book is “How To Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices.” (From 10-22-20)

Every decision you make has consequences, some big and some small. But outcome bias, luck and so many other factors can cloud whether each decision is the best decision. Annie Duke, PHD in Cognitive Science, joins Neil and I to talk decision making, the process and using her World Champion Poker background to help inform decision making. Plus - how can you make better decisions every day. @NFL @NFLDraft @FansFirstSN @Pro_FB_Insiders @Jaguars @Texans @Titans @Colts @Raiders @Chiefs @Broncos @Chargers @Patriots @Dolphins @Jets @Bills @Bengals @Steelers @Ravens @Browns  @Cowboys @Eagles  @Commanders @Giants @Panthers @Falcons @Buccaneers @Saints @Cardinals @Rams @Seahawks @49ers @Packers @Vikings @Lions @Bears Neil Stratton - @InsidetheLeague - Succeed In Football Rodrik David - @RightStepAdv - TheScoutingCommunity.com Annie Duke - AnnieDuke.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What's the secret to building a fulfilling career? Nicolai Tangen shares some of the most powerful advice he's gathered from his extraordinary guests on In Good Company over the years. Hear from AMD's Lisa Su on running towards problems, Bill Gates on continuous learning, and NVIDIA's Jensen Huang's contrarian take on passion. You'll also get career wisdom from Mary Barra of General Motors, Goldman Sachs' David Solomon's 'two-thirds rule,' and Ferrari CEO Benedetto Vigna's four-pillar success framework. Plus insights from poker champion Annie Duke, Accenture's Julie Sweet on living without regrets, and legendary investor Stan Druckenmiller's unconventional advice. Wondering what personal advice Nicolai has for you? Don't miss this episode!In Good Company is hosted by Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management. New full episodes every Wednesday, and don't miss our Highlight episodes every Friday. The production team for this episode includes Isabelle Karlsson and PLAN-B's Niklas Figenschau Johansen, Sebastian Langvik-Hansen and Pål Huuse. Background research was conducted by Isabelle Karlsson. Watch the episode on YouTube: Norges Bank Investment Management - YouTubeWant to learn more about the fund? The fund | Norges Bank Investment Management (nbim.no)Follow Nicolai Tangen on LinkedIn: Nicolai Tangen | LinkedInFollow NBIM on LinkedIn: Norges Bank Investment Management: Administrator for bedriftsside | LinkedIn Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Get free chapters of my book, Good Talk, and master the art of conversations big and small: https://www.danielstillman.com/good-talk Please support the podcast!

In this unusually personal and candid episode, William Green answers a wide range of probing questions posed by listeners to his podcast and readers of his book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier: How the World's Greatest Investors Win in Markets & Life.” Here, William discusses the key qualities, principles, and practices he's observed in the best investors; how they handle adversity; what he's learned from his own setbacks, failures, and mistakes; and how he'd invest if he were starting over. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:19 - What were the three best decisions William Green ever made? 17:04 - What Charlie Munger and Bill Miller can teach us about handling adversity. 23:40 - Why he views indomitable perseverance as the key to success. 34:52 - What drives investing stars like Bill Ackman, Will Danoff, and Mario Gabelli. 48:19 - Why the best investors focus on reducing complexity. 01:03:58 - How to succeed while constructing a calmer, more spacious life. 01:12:50 - How William approaches the art of interviewing. 01:38:22 - What he learned when his career (and profession) went up in smoke. 01:48:39 - What his worst investment mistakes taught him about building wealth. 01:53:28 - How investors can prosper mightily by getting the big things right. 01:55:23 - How he'd invest if he were starting over again. Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Join the exclusive ⁠⁠⁠TIP Mastermind Community⁠⁠⁠ to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. William Green's podcast interview with Annie Duke. William Green's podcast interview with Samantha McLemore. William Green's podcast interview with Tsoknyi Rinpoche & Daniel Goleman. William Green's podcast interview with Bill Nygren. William Green's podcast interview with Brad Stulberg. Guy Spier's The Education of a Value Investor. Marcus Aurelius' Meditations. Jim Stockdale's Thoughts of a Philosophical Fighter Pilot. Daniel Goleman & Richard Davison's Altered Traits. Daniel Goleman & Tsoknyi Rinpoche's Why We Meditate⁠. William Green's ⁠TEDx Talk⁠. William Green's book, “Richer, Wiser, Happier” – ⁠read the reviews of this book⁠. Follow William Green on ⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our ⁠⁠⁠Premium Feed⁠⁠⁠. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, ⁠⁠⁠The Intrinsic Value Newsletter⁠⁠⁠. Check out our ⁠⁠⁠We Study Billionaires Starter Packs⁠⁠⁠. Follow our official social media accounts: ⁠⁠⁠X (Twitter)⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠LinkedIn⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠Instagram⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠Facebook⁠⁠⁠ | ⁠⁠⁠TikTok⁠⁠⁠. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) ⁠⁠⁠here⁠⁠⁠. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: ⁠⁠⁠TIP Finance Tool⁠⁠⁠. Enjoy exclusive perks from our ⁠⁠⁠favorite Apps and Services⁠⁠⁠. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the ⁠⁠⁠best business podcasts⁠⁠⁠. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠sponsors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠:⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ SimpleMining Hardblock AnchorWatch Onramp Human Rights Foundation Unchained Intuit Shopify Vanta reMarkable HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a ⁠⁠⁠rating and review⁠⁠⁠ on ⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! ⁠⁠https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm⁠⁠ Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Former professional poker player Annie Duke wrote a book about Steve's favorite subject: quitting. They talk about why quitting is so hard, how to do it sooner, and why we feel shame when we do something that's good for us. SOURCES:Annie Duke, author and former professional poker player. RESOURCES:Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, by Annie Duke (2022)."Heads or Tails: The Impact of a Coin Toss on Major Life Decisions and Subsequent Happiness," by Steven Levitt (NBER Working Papers, 2016).Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (2015)."Knee-Deep in the Big Muddy: A Study of Escalating Commitment to a Chosen Course of Action," by Barry M. Staw (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1976).Alliance for Decision Education. EXTRAS:"How to Make Your Own Luck," by Freakonomics Radio (2020)."How Do You Know When It's Time to Quit?" by No Stupid Questions (2020)."The Upside of Quitting," by Freakonomics Radio (2011).

Annie Duke is an author, speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space, as well as Special Partner focused on Decision Science at First Round Capital Partners. Annie's is the bestselling author of multiple books, most notably Thinking In Bets and Quit. Annie was previously a championship winning poker player, having amassed over $4 million in tournament winnings, won a World Series of Poker Bracelet, and having won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions. As if that wasn't enough, Annie also completed her PhD in Cognitive Psychology at UPenn in 2023. In this classic episode, Annie joined host Robert Glazer on ⁠the Elevate Podcast⁠ to discuss learnings from her poker career, how to think in bets, and the importance of knowing when to quit. This episode of the Elevate Podcast is sponsored by: Brevo: ⁠⁠brevo.com/elevate⁠⁠ Masterclass: ⁠⁠masterclass.com/elevate⁠⁠ Northwest Registered Agent: ⁠⁠northwestregisteredagent.com/elevate⁠⁠ Shopify: ⁠⁠shopify.com/elevate⁠⁠ ExpressVPN:⁠ ⁠expressvpn.com/elevate⁠⁠ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Did you ever wish you could go back in time and get some advice from your younger self? We can all relate to this sentiment, prompting reflection on the paths we have taken and the wisdom we have gained. Today, I am flying solo to unpack the profound implications of seeking guidance from our past selves. Drawing from my personal experiences and the wisdom of others, I will discuss the complexities of emotional intelligence and decision-making. This episode of The Greatness Machine will also highlight the significance of embracing our emotions while maintaining a balanced perspective, shedding light on the nuanced interplay between past experiences and present choices. Topics include: The benefits of self-reflection for present action Annie Duke's concept of “tilt” in decision-making The importance of prioritizing health, family, and meaningful relationships And other topics… Connect with Darius: Website: https://therealdarius.com/ Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/dariusmirshahzadeh/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/imthedarius/ YouTube: https://therealdarius.com/youtube Book: The Core Value Equation https://www.amazon.com/Core-Value-Equation-Framework-Limitless/dp/1544506708 Sponsored by: Brevo: Get started free or save 50% for 3 months with code GREATNESS at brevo.com/greatness.  Huel: Try Huel with 15% OFF + Free Gift for New Customers today using my code greatness at https://huel.com/greatness. Fuel your best performance with Huel today!  Indeed: Get a $75 sponsored job credit to boost your job's visibility at Indeed.com/DARIUS. Notion: Get Notion Mail for free right now at notion.com/machine.  ShipStation: Go to shipstation.com and use code GREATNESS to sign up for your FREE trial.  Shopify: Sign up for a $1/month trial period at shopify.com/darius.  Write a review for The Greatness Machine using this link: https://ratethispodcast.com/spreadinggreatness.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

It's a super-sized episode today—and for good reason. We spend the bulk of the show in a deep, insightful conversation with Dr. Meir Statman, a leading voice in behavioral finance. I also walk you through the four non-financial pillars of retirement: mindset, energy, passions, and relationships. We'll talk about how to manage what you can control—and how to respond when life throws you the stuff you can't. Plus, we answer a few of your questions. There's a lot here, but it's worth every minute. Let's get to it.SUMMARY OF THIS EPISODE OF THE RETIREMENT ANSWER MAN(00:00) This podcast is dedicated to helping you survive retirement with confidence(00:34) Today on the show we are going to focus on the non-financial realm as we continue talking about process and things we can control versus what we can't control.ROCKIN RETIREMENT IN THE WILD(02:14) Roger shares an anonymous message from a listener about her husband retiring and the confidence they have built in their retirement.PRACTICAL PLANNING SEGMENT(04:50) Sometimes in retirement planning, we tend to overemphasize the financial side of things and forget about the rest of our lives.(06:23) Roger identifies controllables and non-controllables within the non-financial pillars of retirement. (14:50) Roger talks about some examples of people who focused on things that they could control and found success.(16:19) Roger says that the Rock Retirement Club has been a source of inspiration for him.INTERVIEW WITH MEIR STATMAN(18:13) Roger introduces Meir Statman, author of A Wealth of Wellbeing.(19:34) Roger asks what motivated Dr. Statman to write his latest book.(22:10) Dr. Statman talks about his relationship with Nobel Prize winner, Harry Markowitz(25:57) Roger talks about behavioral finance and what it means from his perspective.(30:02) We talk about financial wellbeing but you also need to focus on life wellbeing.(31:06) Dr. Statman discusses a u-curve in life wellbeing.(37:25) Roger and Dr. Statman talk about accepting who you are.(39:30) Dr. Statman talks about the components of wellbeing.(41:49) Roger asks about social capital in retirement.(49:00) Starting a conversation is really important, Meir says(51:19) What is cultural capital?(57:32) Developing social, cultural, and personal capital becomes harder as you get older.(01:01:38) What is personal capital?LISTENER QUESTIONS(01:04:42) Listener Brian sends a question about generating his retirement paycheck.(01:17:52) Another listener named Brian asks about investing in annuities.SMART SPRINT(01:22:20) In the next seven days, before you get out of bed, smile and tell yourself it is going to be a great day!BONUS(01:22:48) Roger reads from his grandfather's WWII journal.REFERENCESNick Vujicic- Motivational SpeakerNelson Mandela Mier StatmanRetirement Answer ManSign up for The Noodle (previously known as Six Shot Saturday) BOOKSMan's Search for Meaning by Viktor FranklI Know Why the Caged Bird Sings by Maya AngelouA Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance by Meir StatmanThe Second Mountain: The Quest for a Moral Life by David BrooksBowling Alone: Revised and Updated: The Collapse and Revival of American Community by Robert PutnamThe How of Happiness: A Scientific Approach to Getting the Life You Want by Sonja LyubomirskyThinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

In this episode, Clay explores the book Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke, a guide to making better decisions under uncertainty. Drawing from her career as a professional poker player, Annie shares how to separate decision quality from outcomes and avoid the trap of “resulting.” Clay also discusses how our brains are wired for certainty, why embracing probabilistic thinking leads to better outcomes, and the value of building a truth-seeking support system. Additionally, he uncovers tools like backcasting, premortems, and kill criteria to improve long-term decision-making as investors. IN THIS EPISODE YOU'LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 01:36 - What it means to “think in bets” and how poker can sharpen decision-making. 05:57 - The concept of “resulting” and how it distorts our ability to evaluate decisions. 08:17 - Why good decisions can still lead to bad outcomes—and vice versa. 09:41 - The role of System 1 vs. System 2 thinking in making better choices. 10:44 - How investing parallels poker with incomplete information and uncertainty. 26:29 - How to build a feedback loop that separates luck from skill. 34:03 - The importance of building a truth-seeking group or “buddy system.” 35:02 - The dangers of confirmation bias and how beliefs are often formed by default. 52:54 - How backcasting and premortems can help map out future decisions. 57:16 - The power of setting kill criteria to avoid emotional decision-making. And so much more! Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here. Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members. Annie Duke's book: Thinking in Bets. Mentioned book: Big Mistakes. Related Episode: TIP623: The Art of Decision Making w/ Annie Duke. Related Episode: RWH015: Betting Better in Markets and Life w/ Annie Duke. Follow Clay on LinkedIn & X. Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here. Enjoy ad-free episodes when you subscribe to our Premium Feed. NEW TO THE SHOW? Get smarter about valuing businesses in just a few minutes each week through our newsletter, The Intrinsic Value Newsletter. Check out our We Study Billionaires Starter Packs. Follow our official social media accounts: X (Twitter) | LinkedIn | Instagram | Facebook | TikTok. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try our tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance Tool. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: SimpleMining Hardblock Found AnchorWatch DeleteMe Fundrise CFI Education Indeed Vanta Shopify The Bitcoin Way Onramp HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Spotify! It takes less than 30 seconds, and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Notes from James:Here's the truth: if my great-great-great grandfather had written anything—just 10 pages about his daily life—I'd treasure it like gold. And I promise, your great-grandkids will feel the same about your story.You don't need to be a celebrity to write something that matters. You just need to be honest. Whether you're sharing how you survived grief, learned to say no, built new habits, or rebuilt your life after failure—your story could help someone else. And it could help you just as much.Episode Description:In this part one of a two-part episode, I walk you through the frameworks I've used in books like Choose Yourself and The Power of No, and show you how other authors—AJ Jacobs, Annie Duke, Susan Cain—infused autobiography into books that went on to change people's lives.I also break down the different types of autobiographical books—from traditional memoirs and mini-memoirs, to autobiographical fiction and nonfiction hybrids—and I explain how bestselling books like Atomic Habits, The Puzzler, and Man's Search for Meaning are all, at heart, autobiographies.This episode is part motivation, part masterclass in storytelling, and part therapy. If you've been sitting on a life story, this is the sign you've been waiting for.Oh, and yes, I'll even give you writing prompts and reflection questions to help you actually start.I also created a book-writing course: How to write and publish a book in 30 days.If this episode gets you thinking, share it with someone who has a story to tell.What You'll Learn: Why writing a memoir isn't about being famous—it's about being authentic How to turn life events, trauma, and setbacks into powerful narrative fuel The 5+ major types of autobiographical books (and how to pick yours) Why adding personal stories makes your writing more marketable, memorable, and meaningful The exact questions to ask yourself before you start writingTime Stamps00:00 Why Write an Autobiography?00:47 The Value of Personal History02:46 Memoirs and Mini Memoirs10:21 AI and Autobiographical Writing17:14 Unique Perspectives and Philosophies21:07 Opportunities Through Writing28:03 Defining Your Mission and Purpose30:22 Reflecting on Life's Important Events38:52 Overcoming Adversity and Difficult Situations45:16 Crafting Your Unique AutobiographyAdditional ResourcesHow to write and publish a book in 30 days.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.