Podcasts about lenders

How Hard Money Lenders SHOULD Finance New Construction Deals - #295 Ground-up construction loans can be some of the riskiest—and most misunderstood—deals in private lending. In this episode of the Private Lenders Podcast, Jason and Chris break down exactly how experienced hard money lenders approach financing new construction projects the right way. After nearly 18 years, thousands of loans, and managing hundreds of defaults, they've learned that the key to success is structuring deals conservatively to minimize risk while still giving borrowers the capital they need to get the job done. You'll learn: ✅ The four biggest risks of new construction lending (day-one exposure, execution, type of lot, and land pricing) ✅ How to structure deals to protect your capital while keeping borrowers vested ✅ Why ground-up deals can actually resemble heavy rehab loans when done right ✅ Real-world examples of loan structures that work (and ones to avoid) ✅ Why experience and borrower “skin in the game” are non-negotiables If you've been hesitant to dive into new construction lending—or want to expand your portfolio safely—this episode will give you a proven framework to get started responsibly. ✅ Please like, subscribe, and share! ✅ Are you a new or experienced private lender or hard money lender? Join Jason Balin and Chris Haddon from Hard Money Bankers as they draw from their extensive experience running a successful hard money lending company since 2007. Tune in weekly with episodes related to all aspects of private lending. From discovering lucrative loan opportunities to securing private capital, effectively managing your loan portfolio, handling defaults, and much more, we've got you covered. ✔️ Tune in now and watch the full video podcast at www.privatelenderspodcast.com ✔️If you enjoyed this podcast we would appreciate a positive review... https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/private-lenders-podcast/id1476153070 ✔️Make sure to check out the #1 Online Community For New and Experienced Private and Hard Money Lenders.. Create your account at www.hardmoneymastermind.com FOLLOW US ON SOCIAL Get updates or reach out to Get updates on our Social Media Profiles! ✅ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/hardmoneymastermind/ ✅ Tiktok: https://www.tiktok.com/@hardmoneymastermind  

Click Here for the Show Notes In this episode of Passive Real Estate Investing, guest host Melissa Nash welcomes back fan-favorite and top investor-friendly lender, Aaron Chapman, for a no-fluff conversation every new (and seasoned) investor needs to hear. They dive into the #1 question investors ask lenders, why lenders ask for "so much paperwork," and how to avoid last-minute closing chaos. Aaron also breaks down what appraisers really look for, how to handle low appraisals, and why your lender is actually your business partner—not your enemy. Whether you've bought zero doors or five, this episode is packed with practical advice, real-world insight, and the mindset shift investors need to scale with confidence.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we go through all the latest headlines in mortgage banking. Plus, Robbie sits down with Lenders One's Justin Demola for a discussion on how originator compensation will evolve in the age of the digital mortgage. And we close by previewing Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole speech.FHA fall-out borrowers represent untapped market shares that can stabilize your shrinking pipeline. Arrive Home's Earned Equity Program supports these clients on their path to meaningful homeownership. Additionally,  FHA borrowers who don't have the benefit of family assistance are able to qualify using the Nation's leader in DPA. 

Spin up digital co-workers that qualify leads, update CRM fields, and send follow-ups but THAT'S NOT ALL — no payroll paperwork. ⏳ Realtors and Lenders—you're being pulled in a thousand directions every single day. Tracking rates, creating content, following up with clients, managing your pipeline… it's impossible to do it all. But what if you didn't have to? This is the future of real estate and lending productivity. Stop chasing. Start leading. Links: https://www.youtube.com/live/1jn_RpbPbEc?si=fZYW0Sf7s8-qLQyp ⭐ JOIN OUR COMMUNITY ⭐ Get the hottest and most up-to-date info in the Real Estate and lending industry! click the link to subscribe today ➡️ https://theREsource.tv/?utm_source=ytd 

Snag a FREE copy of my book, and get connected to the Military Millionaire community on all of your favorite platforms: https://www.frommilitarytomillionaire.com/free-book

Many student loan borrowers are falling behind again, and the impact is more than financial.A recent change in federal law has reshaped student loan repayment, and as collections ramp back up, millions are seeing their credit scores drop. If you're feeling the weight of repayment, you're not alone. Neile Simon joins us today with practical steps to help you regain control.Neile Simon is a Certified Credit Counselor with Christian Credit Counselors (CCC), an underwriter of Faith & Finance.Major Changes in Federal Student Loan RepaymentIn early July, sweeping legislation restructured federal student loan repayment options. Borrowers now face only two choices:Standard Repayment Plan: Lasting 10 to 25 yearsRepayment Assistance Plan (RAP): A 30-year plan with payments based on 1% to 10% of the borrower's income, with a minimum of $10 per monthWhile RAP may seem like a helpful tool, the new law eliminated borrower-friendly plans such as the SAVE plan and many income-driven repayment options. For borrowers who are unemployed or experiencing hardship, this is a significant loss. The end of pandemic-era protections, including deferments, has left many unprepared and falling behind.Adding to the challenge, federal collections resumed on May 5, signaling a firm end to COVID-19 relief. The result? A wave of financial instability.The Credit Score CrisisThe fallout from these changes has been swift and painful. According to AP News, in the first quarter of this year alone:Over 2.2 million borrowers experienced a credit score drop of more than 100 points.Over 1 million borrowers experienced a decrease of more than 150 points.This sharp decline has made it difficult for individuals to secure new credit. Car loans, mortgages, and even rental approvals are now being denied. With limited disposable income, many are forced to choose between paying rent, student loans, or credit cards.More people are relying on credit cards just to cover essentials like groceries and gas. It's a cycle that only deepens their debt and financial stress.How Credit Counseling Can HelpWhile Christian Credit Counselors doesn't directly manage student loans, they play a vital role for those overwhelmed by mounting credit card balances. Neely explains how nonprofit credit counseling agencies bring clarity and relief:One-on-One Counseling: Certified counselors review your debt, income, and budgetDebt Management Plan (DMP): Unsecured debts are consolidated into a single monthly paymentCreditor Negotiation: Lowered interest rates (often between 1% and 12%), reduced monthly payments, and elimination of late feesCommitment to Repayment: This is not a loan, bankruptcy, or debt settlement. You repay your full debt—just through a simplified plan.It's a way to honor your commitments while regaining control. And once enrolled, your interest rates remain fixed throughout the program.If you're feeling weighed down by debt, don't wait. Take an honest look at your budget, explore your options, and don't hesitate to reach out for help. You may feel stuck, but there are real solutions—and people who care.Christian Credit Counselors is here to walk with you, offering biblical guidance and practical solutions to help you achieve debt freedom. Visit ChristianCreditCounselors.org to connect with a certified credit counselor today.On Today's Program, Rob Answers Listener Questions:I've paid off my credit cards and car—praise God! Now I'm wondering how to balance my emergency fund and regular savings. How much should I aim for in each?I'm reinvesting the interest from a CD. Since I'm not withdrawing the money, do I still need to tithe on the interest?My wife is turning 65 but hasn't earned enough credits for Social Security on her own. Can she start receiving spousal benefits now—and how will that affect her survivor benefits down the road?I'm debt-free and contributing 15% to my 401(k), but I only have two months of emergency savings. Should I pause my retirement contributions to build up my emergency fund?Resources Mentioned:Faithful Steward: FaithFi's New Quarterly Magazine (Become a FaithFi Partner)Christian Credit CounselorsWisdom Over Wealth: 12 Lessons from Ecclesiastes on MoneyLook At The Sparrows: A 21-Day Devotional on Financial Fear and AnxietyRich Toward God: A Study on the Parable of the Rich FoolFind a Certified Kingdom Advisor (CKA) or Certified Christian Financial Counselor (CertCFC)FaithFi App Remember, you can call in to ask your questions most days at (800) 525-7000. Faith & Finance is also available on the Moody Radio Network and American Family Radio. Visit our website at FaithFi.com where you can join the FaithFi Community and give as we expand our outreach.

Send us a textGreg sits down with Senior VP of Midfirst Bank Tom Altieri (Mr. Outstanding) and talks about his love of SBA loans and the reasons why it is a key to building wealth for small business Owners, his personal success and involvement with the Phoenix Thunderbirds, which last year raised $20 million for local charities with the largest golf tournament in the world. Sometimes we have guests on industry topics, other times it's people I admire that are friends or family members and/or subjects that I think would benefit subscribers. On this podcast, we had  3 in 1.  He is funny, sincere, entertaining, knowledgeable, humble and excellent at his craft. Hard to not like Tom Altieri. It's not a loan it's a dream. Listen and enjoy. 

08-09-25See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On today's episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Joe Tyrrell, CEO of Optimal Blue, about some of the best AI use cases he's seeing lenders deploy and other areas where he would be cautious. Related to this episode: Optimal Blue ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠HousingWire | YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠More info about HousingWire⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ Enjoy the episode! The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Calm on the Surface, Distress Below: Joe Blackbourn on the State of Sunbelt Multifamily   The Eye of the Storm? When my podcast guest this week, Joe Blackbourn, president and founder of Everest Holdings, stepped in front of a room of ULI members in late 2024, he titled his multifamily market forecast “An Underdressed Weatherman Gets Sent Into a Hurricane.”   The image was evocative – and accurate. Multifamily investors, developers, and lenders had been navigating gale-force winds of rising rates, inflation shocks, and structural cost resets. And yet, as Blackbourn noted in my conversation with him, today the industry still appears eerily calm.   “There's a lot of stormy weather on the horizon, and, like a hurricane, we don't know quite where it's going to land or how bad it's going to be.”   The Invisible Cost of ‘Calm' Core inflation may be retreating, but the real story, Blackbourn argues, is not about the rate of change. It's about the baseline shift.   “Even if we're at just over 2% now, it's still a 30% increase in a very short period of time,” he said, referring to food prices, but with implications for housing as well. Home prices in many U.S. markets, particularly across the Sunbelt, have surged by 30–50% since 2020. That repricing is likely to stick.   “It's really difficult to give that pricing back,” he added. “Short of some real economic calamity, the best we can manage is slower growth, not a decline in consumer pricing.”   That same principle is locking up real estate deals. Rent growth has slowed, but operating expenses have not. The result is compressed margins, sluggish NOI, and a widespread inability to transact or refinance.   Multifamily: Where Distress Hides Quietly On paper, the multifamily sector looks surprisingly stable. Cap rates for high-quality assets remain in the 5.0%–5.25% range, and transaction volume is beginning to pick up in select markets. But beneath the surface, stress is mounting.   “There's a lot of stress at the balance sheet level,” said Blackbourn. “And it's not being helped by property-level performance.”   In many Sunbelt markets, especially those with pandemic-era construction booms, organic NOI growth is flat or negative. Rent collection is delayed, staffing is inconsistent, and delinquencies are rising.   “We're seeing situations where it's taking all month to get the rents collected,” he noted. “You'd be at the 15th of the month with less than 50% of rents in the door.”   Yet distress sales remain rare. Why? Blackbourn offers two reasons: Lender tactics: Debt funds are “hope-certificating” properties, granting extensions, persuading sponsors to inject capital, and delaying the inevitable. Human psychology: “There's a survival instinct at work,” he observed. “People will do whatever they can to stay in the game.” What Keeps Deals Frozen? Everyone is waiting. Borrowers, lenders, and investors are all betting on falling interest rates to solve their problems. But Blackbourn remains skeptical.   “I don't think it's inevitable that rates come down,” he said. “And yet, it's within the debt fund's interest to persuade borrowers that they will.”   Many current valuations are premised on that hope. But even if rates do drop, the bid-ask spread remains wide. In his words, “It feels like this really taut balloon; fragile.”   Why Aren't Cap Rates Rising Faster? One of the stranger dynamics in today's market is that cap rates haven't risen much, despite the Fed holding policy rates above 5%. High-quality assets are still trading at 5%–5.25% caps. How is that possible?   “If you have the right basis, you can sell into that,” Blackbourn explained. “The pricing for high-quality assets hasn't jumped that much.”   But for vintage assets, pricing capitulation is coming. Lenders are forcing assets to market when no other solutions are viable. And while buyers are circling, few are pouncing.   Supply, Demand, and the Surprise of Absorption Another surprise: absorption is holding up remarkably well.   “We're seeing absorption that's about keeping up with supply,” Blackbourn noted. “In some markets, we're about to hit the point where we're absorbing more units than we're adding.”   This matters. Historically, once net absorption overtakes new deliveries, rents begin to recover, often before occupancy hits 95%. And that could happen sooner than expected in markets like Phoenix.   “We're modeling that inflection point this year,” he said.   But again, bifurcation matters. New Class A developments are attracting high-income renters,  people who once would have bought homes. Meanwhile, vintage B and C properties are seeing tenants who are increasingly rent-burdened.   “In new projects, we're seeing a higher-income demographic than we've ever seen,” said Blackbourn. “But in older assets, collections are way down. Rents are up 30%, but incomes aren't.”   The Forecast: Q3 and Q4 2025 Looking ahead to the rest of the year, Blackbourn sees a mixed bag. More volume is expected from both opportunistic buyers and forced sellers. Permits are collapsing, setting up an eventual rebound in pricing power. Selective outperformers will emerge in submarkets with favorable rent-to-income ratios. “We could see surprising outperformance in the asset class sooner than people think,” he said. “But it will be bifurcated by quality, by tenant income, and by geography.”   In short, the underdressed weatherman may not be in the eye of the storm just yet – but the wind is shifting.

Lenders have begun cutting interest rates in the lead-up to the August monetary policy meeting, with many now sitting under 5 per cent. This increased competition was discussed in this episode of Broker Daily Uncut. Borrowers are finally seeing some relief after years of stubbornly high interest rates. Also discussed was the launch of some exciting events – the Broker Innovation Summit Melbourne and the Commercial Finance Awards.

Emmanuel Daniel is a global thought leader, author, and advisor on the future of finance, geopolitics, and their impact on business and society. He was named a top 10 global influencer on the Fintech Power50 list in 2021 and 2022, and is the founder of TAB Global, which operates platforms like The Asian Banker, Wealth and Society, and TABInsights. Emmanuel works closely with corporate and government leaders, advising on strategy and facilitating high-level planning workshops around the world. His book, The Great Transition: The Personalization of Finance is Here (2022), explores how technologies such as blockchain, crypto, and gaming are reshaping finance. Featuring forewords by former Congressman Barney Frank and financial innovator Richard Sandor, the book provides a roadmap for disruptors in the financial industry. Emmanuel is also a frequent commentator on BBC, CNBC, and Bloomberg, and was awarded the Citibank Excellence in Business Journalism Award for Asia in 1999. With a legal background and degrees from the National University of Singapore, University of London, and studies at Columbia University, Emmanuel brings a global perspective to his work. A former member of the Entrepreneurs' Organization and an avid model train enthusiast, he has traveled to over 130 countries and splits his time between Singapore, Beijing, and New York while working on his next book, The Winning Civilization.   During the show we discussed: What's happening with crypto and stable coins How stable coins impact the US dollar What the Genius Act means for you New crypto giants emerging from stable coin growth Why the US central bank won't regulate crypto' What to know about alt coins and staying safe Credit profiling through business transactions New credit scoring methods for businesses What's changing in peer-to-peer lending Digital data now used in lending decisions Lenders using lifestyle data to qualify you How friends, shopping times, and habits affect borrowing   Resources: https://www.emmanueldaniel.com/  

Lenders have avoided potentially needing to pay compensation to millions of drivers following a Supreme Court ruling.It ruled that lenders are not liable for hidden commission payments in car finance schemes.But it might not be as bad as it seems....Our Consumer Editor Chris Choi tells Paul Brand what you need to know.For more information on this, advice can be found on the ITV News website

⚠️ Your deal is cash flowing—and still at risk of default?!   That's right. On this episode of Apartment Syndication Made Easy Podcast, real estate attorney Nic McGrue uncovers a hidden danger that's hitting operators across the country: technical defaults triggered by minor issues—despite on-time payments.   Nic has helped clients raise over $500 million and knows the ins and outs of how lenders work. His insight? Lenders are now looking for ways to reclaim loans written at low interest rates… even if your deal is performing.  

Equifax Senior Advisor Tom O'Neill sits down with Ian Wright, Chief Strategy Officer at IXI, to unpack the shifting landscape of consumer wealth in a post-COVID economy. Drawing on exclusive IXI data, they explore how total U.S. household assets have grown to over $66 trillion—while the median household has actually lost ground. The conversation dives into the shrinking mass affluent segment, the rising influence of retirees, regional trends in affluence, and how financial institutions can better target high-potential markets. Economist Justin Begley of Moody's Analytics delivers our macroeconomic update.In this episode:·      Post-COVID wealth trends and overall asset growth·      The shrinking mass affluent segment and rise of the “barbell effect”·      Disparities in wealth distribution across income tiers·      Differences in financial outcomes by age group (Gen Z, Gen X, retirees)·      Geographic variations in wealth concentration·      Stock market and investments as primary drivers of wealth growth·      Declining deposit levels and implications for banks·      K-shaped economic and credit recovery·      Strategic marketing approaches for targeting affluent households·      Outlook for deposits and investments through 2025–2026

Listen in for a special presentation of The Small Business Mindset.  Kirsten Flory's firm, Foundations Commercial, held a Small Business Lending Insights event with lending experts and clients.  They shared the different types of small business lending programs, and how you as a business owner, can apply!   To watch the full presentation on You Tube click the link HERE Key Takeaways: At some point in your business cycle, you will need a loan SBA lending is available for owner-occupied businesses Building a relationship with your lender is crucial Get organized financially before applying for a loan Understand your financial picture regularly (and update it!) Lenders will look at your credit history and debt-to-income ratio Keep your credit card balances low for better loan prospects Make on-time payments to maintain good credit history There are many programs available to help small businesses    

Since it's unlikely the Fed will make any interest rate moves at this week's meeting, it's safe to assume rates will stay up for at least a while longer. That means potential borrowers are weighing whether to wait out the Fed or get access to capital now, despite the cost. In this episode, local bankers tell us about the current lending climate. Plus: The EU promises to increase U.S. energy spending, credit card issuers lean in to premium cards with high fees, and Congress makes major changes to vehicle fuel efficiency regulations.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Since it's unlikely the Fed will make any interest rate moves at this week's meeting, it's safe to assume rates will stay up for at least a while longer. That means potential borrowers are weighing whether to wait out the Fed or get access to capital now, despite the cost. In this episode, local bankers tell us about the current lending climate. Plus: The EU promises to increase U.S. energy spending, credit card issuers lean in to premium cards with high fees, and Congress makes major changes to vehicle fuel efficiency regulations.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Ryan Hughes joins the team on the next episode to share how you can purchase Notes by borrowing investment capital—even if you're starting with less. Ryan will cover the do's and don'ts, how to succeed with limited funds, and introduce a service that provides the capital you need to launch your note business!To obtain this week's Real Estate Notes Show guest Ryan Hughes's information, use this link https://bit.ly/4le9Ag2**Never Miss a Live Show**, Add our Calendar to yours! Google - https://bit.ly/3Djr8GL Apple/Outlook - https://bit.ly/3Dhj9tyWe Buy Notes go to our site for more information! FAQs and Submit Your NoteWatch this video on Youtube: Watch VideoOur new Website Updated Tools, Resources, Bid Calculator, Education and over 100 assets for sale: ⁠https://www.jkpholdings.com/note-investor-education⁠Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/JKPholdingsllc?sub_confirmation=1Upcoming Live Webinars: https://www.jkpholdings.com/webinarsDME (Diversfied Mortgage Expo) Note Conference Video Recordings - ⁠PurchaseSOCIAL MEDIAFB Group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/EastCoastDistressedNoteInvesting/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/JKPHoldings/Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/company/jkp-holdings-llc#noteinvesting #mortgagenotes #investor #mortgagenote #realestate #realestateinvestor[00:00:00] Show Intro and Guest Update[00:01:15] Dave's Summer Plans & Events[00:02:20] What This Show Is All About[00:03:00] Understanding Seller Finance Compliance[00:04:30] The 70/20/10 Note Structure Explained[00:05:50] Why Notes Beat Being a Landlord[00:06:50] The Struggle to Fund Note Deals[00:07:50] Meet Ryan: Lending Expert Joins In[00:09:00] Why Banks Avoid Seller Finance Notes[00:10:30] Ryan's Background in Institutional Lending[00:12:00] Why Borrowing for Notes Is Hard[00:13:40] What Makes a Note Unattractive to Lenders[00:15:00] Key Documents in a Collateral Package[00:17:30] Can the Note Survive Foreclosure?[00:19:00] Lending Based on Note Collateral[00:20:30] How Much Can You Borrow on Notes?[00:22:30] The Importance of Proper Assignments[00:24:00] Banks' Appetite Varies Widely[00:26:00] Factors Banks Care About Most[00:27:30] Performing vs. Non-Performing Notes Impact[00:29:00] Servicing Fees and Responsibilities[00:31:00] State Licensing and Location Considerations[00:34:00] Why You Must Use Real Note Attorneys[00:36:00] Reserve Requirements and Risk Mitigation[00:37:30] Lending in All States, With Caution[00:40:00] Funding Hard Money Loans With Notes[00:42:00] Market Predictions and Economic Trends[00:44:30] Wrap Notes: Proceed With Caution[00:45:07] Final Thoughts and Show Wrap-Up

What Lenders Look for in Your Business Plan & Financials

Enova reported a 28 percent year-over-year increase in small business loan originations, reaching $1.8 billion in the second quarter, with total loan and finance receivables at $4.3 billion. Small and medium-sized business revenue rose 30 percent to $326 million. Surveys show over 90 percent of small business owners expect growth, and 76 percent prefer nonbank lenders for speed and convenience. Only 37 percent of small businesses have any credit card access, and 32 percent have business credit cards, prompting a shift toward alternative financing. Enova's consumer segment maintained stable credit quality with a net charge-off ratio of 8.1 percent. The company's diversified portfolio and a stable competitive landscape support its growth and risk management. American businesses are absorbing increased tariff costs, and small businesses face added pressure, increasing demand for flexible financing.Learn more on this news by visiting us at: https://greyjournal.net/news/ Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Host Emmaline Aliff is joined by economist Amy Crews Cutts, President at AC Cutts and Associates, and a panel of Equifax experts—Maria Urtubey, Tom O'Neill, and Dave Sojka—to unpack the latest signals from both hard and soft economic data. From shifting consumer sentiment to rising tariffs and the ripple effects on credit, lending, and affordability, the team explores the impact on consumers as we head into the second half of the year.

Today we bring on Owen LaFave, Market President at the Bank of Tampa. He tells us all about how he uses LinkedIn to create value for himself and his bank. Owen's advice in today's episode could inform your LinkedIn strategy to create value for your clients and to meet new prospects.   Learn more about The ARC Program here.   The views, information, or opinions expressed during this show are solely those of the participants involved and do not necessarily represent those of SouthState Bank and its employees. SouthState Bank, N.A. - Member FDIC

The Uninsurable Future: How Climate-Driven Insurance Risk is Reshaping Real Estate   The Canary in the CRE Coal Mine If insurance is the canary in the coal mine for climate risk, then the bird has stopped singing. That's the warning from Dave Jones, former California Insurance Commissioner and current Director of the Climate Risk Initiative at UC Berkeley. In a conversation that touches on reinsurance markets, mortgage delinquencies, lender behavior, and regulatory dysfunction, Jones laid out the most sobering climate-related CRE risk analysis to date: we are already living through a systemic insurance crisis—and commercial real estate is not exempt.   “We are marching steadily towards an uninsurable areas in this country,” Jones warns.   From Homeowners to High-Rises: What the Data Shows Much of the early distress has been observed in the residential and small business markets, where data is more publicly available. A study by the Dallas Fed, cited by Jones, found a direct correlation between areas hardest hit by climate events and surging insurance premiums, non-renewals, and mortgage delinquencies.   But commercial real estate isn't insulated. While pricing data is less transparent due to looser filing requirements, Jones states, “everything that I've seen indicates that those [commercial] rates are going up too,” particularly in regions where catastrophic climate events are becoming more frequent and severe.   Take Florida. One of our clients' office tower's premiums jumped from $300,000 to $1.2 million in a single renewal cycle. That's straight off the bottom line. The hit is entirely non-accretive; it's pure cost.   The Feedback Loop: Insurance, Lending, and Liquidity As insurance availability shrinks and prices soar, lending dries up. Lenders want to see that there is property and casualty insurance yet, as it becomes harder to get, that has implications in credit markets… and flow-through implications to the real economy.   It's not just anecdotal. Jones references studies showing that banks are offloading loans insured by lower-rated, higher-risk insurers to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, effectively shifting the risk onto taxpayers. That means if a hurricane hits and the house is knocked down, there isn't insurance available, potentially because the insurance company went insolvent.   The trend is clear: insurance stress is bleeding into credit markets and weakening the foundations of the entire real estate financing stack.   The “Deregulation” Illusion Some states, like Florida, are trying to respond by loosening regulatory constraints to attract insurers. Jones is skeptical. “Florida rates are four times the national average,” he says. The state has adopted taxpayer-funded reinsurance schemes, weakened litigation protections, and allowed less-robust rating agencies to operate.   Still, “the national branded home insurers are not writing in Florida… they can't make a profit,” says Jones. “So even with all these changes, the background risk is too great.”   In short: deregulation cannot solve a fundamentally unprofitable underwriting environment driven by climate volatility.   Adaptation Isn't Being Priced In - Yet Jones is more optimistic about resilience measures. Home hardening, defensible space, and forest management, especially in wildfire-prone states like California, can materially reduce losses. Commercial insurers often have engineering staff to assess and recommend these strategies.   But the industry hasn't kept pace. “Insurers, by and large, are not accounting for property, community, and landscape-scale adaptation and resilience in their models,” Jones says. One exception is Colorado, which passed a law requiring insurers to factor in proven risk mitigation. This could prove to be a model for commercial markets, but it's early and insurers remain price takers in the face of mounting losses.   From Reinsurance to Municipal Bonds: Signals to Watch What market signals should CRE investors monitor? Jones suggests: Insurance pricing and non-renewals: leading indicators of distress. Reinsurance costs: though recently softening, they've trended upward for years. Lender behavior: especially offloading risky loans to agencies. Rating agency downgrades: particularly for municipalities facing severe climate risk. Housing market mispricing: First Street Foundation estimates as much as $1 trillion in residential overvaluation due to underpriced climate risk. Any of these could tip the balance in specific markets or signal a broader inflection point.   A Slow Collapse or a Sudden Shock? Is this a long-term crisis or a fast-moving one? “It's happening in real time now,” says Jones. “It's more likely that this will be a steady glide into uninsurability… as opposed to one catastrophic event that brings the whole house of cards down.”   Still, the metaphor is chilling. The systemic risks posed by climate-driven insurance failure are already manifesting across sectors. Whether the collapse is gradual or sudden, the endpoint is clear.   “There is no place in the United States where you have a ‘get out of climate change free' card,” Jones warns.   For CRE professionals, that means a hard reckoning is ahead – not just with climate, but with underwriting, capital access, and portfolio risk in a fundamentally altered landscape.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

The VA Loan Trap No One Warns You About Hosted by: David Pere Episode Type: Real Estate, Financial Education Length: ~25 minutes Watch on YouTube: The VA Loan Trap No One Warns You About

Which means two different lenders think they have rights to the collateral. https://www.lehtoslaw.com

Today we bring back Sim Cheema, who works on our ARC Team here at SouthState. We talk about the current Fed policy, the economic environment, and what all that means for you and your lenders at your bank.   Learn more about ARC here. Learn more about the Community Bank Summer Performance Series here.   The views, information, or opinions expressed during this show are solely those of the participants involved and do not necessarily represent those of SouthState Bank and its employees SouthState Bank, N.A. - Member FDIC

Wondering how much house you can actually afford? Forget what the bank tells you. Lenders base your mortgage approval on outdated debt-to-income ratios that ignore your real life—and that's exactly how people end up house-poor. In this video, we break down the most accurate and financially sustainable way to calculate home affordability using a smarter method: the 25% rule.Instead of relying on gross income or bank pre-approvals, we show you how to determine your home buying budget based on take-home pay—the money that actually hits your bank account. Our rule of thumb: Your monthly mortgage payment, PMI, homeowner's insurance, and HOA fees should never exceed 25% of your net income. This ensures you still have room for retirement savings, emergencies, vacations, and everyday living—without sacrificing your future.We'll walk you through:o Why traditional mortgage advice is flawedo The hidden dangers of lender-approved debt ratioso The full breakdown of housing costs (and which ones matter most)o How to budget for maintenance, taxes, and unpredictable repairso A real-world case study to show how this plays out in actual numberso Whether you should buy at all—or if renting and investing might be the better moveWhether you're a first-time homebuyer, someone relocating, or trying to figure out if it's finally time to stop renting, this episode gives you real numbers, honest insights, and zero sales fluff.Ready to stop guessing and start planning? Check out this episode before you make a home-buying decision that locks up your income for decades.Don't become house-poor. Buy smart. Live free.**Support the Stream By Shopping at Our Store** Buy Your Financial Mirror Gear: https://www.thefinancialmirror.org/shop YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@thefinancialmirrorRumble: https://rumble.com/TheFinancialMirrorFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/thefinancialmirr0rX: https://twitter.com/financialmirr0rInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/thefinancialmirror/Podcast: https://creators.spotify.com/pod/show/thefinancialmirrorIf you are in need of a Financial Coach, don't waste another day of being in debt, not planning for retirement, or simply wondering where your money went each month. Today is the day to take control of your finances and I can help, no issue is too big or too small. Contact me at https://www.thefinancialmirror.org/#InvestInYourself #PersonalFinance #FinancialEmpowerment #personalfinance #financialfreedom #finance #money #investing #financialliteracy #financialindependence #budgeting #debtfreecommunity #financialplanning #debtfree #financialeducation #debtfreejourney #wealth #financetips #business #budget #investment #entrepreneur #moneymanagement #moneytips #stockmarket #financialgoals #invest #motivation #debt #savings #moneymindset #savingmoney #success

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the the latest salvo between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump. Plus, Robbie sits down with Optimal Blue's Jeff McCarty to discuss the growing importance of integrated, data-driven tools in secondary marketing to improve pricing precision, risk management, and efficiency, particularly as market volatility, product diversity, and AI adoption reshape the hedging and trading landscape. And we look at what was a surprisingly strong June payrolls report that will certainly keep the Fed from cutting rates on hold until September.Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. Learn more at figure.com.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the burgeoning appraisal scandal out of Baltimore. Plus, Robbie sits down with Halcyon's Kirk Donaldson to discuss the question, “Why is it so expensive to originate a mortgage?” as well as an exploration of how automation, compensation models, regulatory burdens, and tech interoperability could reshape costs and lead to a more efficient future. And we look at the clap-back from Fed Chair Powell to President Donald Trump.Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. Learn more at figure.com.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at why markets remain cautious due to the looming prospect of increased U.S. debt issuance tied to growing budget deficits. Plus, Robbie sits down with Bank United's Chris Huang to discuss trends that capital providers are seeing in mortgage originators and what to look for in bank partners or warehouse line counterparties. And we look at the substantial pressure being heaped on Fed Chair Powell.Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. Learn more at figure.com.

Tip Tuesday, 2-4 Min Real Estate TipsScammers are getting smarter—are you prepared? In Part 2 of our Tip Tuesday Scam Series, Katie with Team EvoAZ at eXp Realty and Ryan Gilliam with Your Best Mortgage are exposing two of the sneakiest (and most costly) real estate scams making the rounds in Arizona right now:✅Fake Mortgage Lenders or Brokers:They promise “guaranteed” loans or ultra-low rates, then run off with your personal info and hard-earned cash. Don't let a scammer steal your dream of homeownership!✅Straw Buyer Schemes:Bad actors use someone else's identity to buy homes, leaving innocent people with ruined credit and legal headaches. These schemes can wreck neighborhoods—and lives.We're breaking down how these scams work, the warning signs to watch for, and exactly what you can do to protect yourself. Plus, we've got a free checklist packed with practical tips to keep you and your family safe.

Welcome to The Chrisman Commentary, your go-to daily mortgage news podcast, where industry insights meet expert analysis. Hosted by Robbie Chrisman, this podcast delivers the latest updates on mortgage rates, capital markets, and the forces shaping the housing finance landscape. Whether you're a seasoned professional or just looking to stay informed, you'll get clear, concise breakdowns of market trends and economic shifts that impact the mortgage world.In today's episode, we look at the vacuum from the shrinking of the CFPB and how state regulators have stepped into the void. Plus, Robbie sits down with Figure's Michael Tannenbaum to discuss stable coins, the latest happenings at Figure, and product proliferation in the mortgage industry as a result of borrower and investor demand. And we look at this week's packed economic calendar into a condensed week.Thank you to Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Lenders, give your borrowers an experience they will rave about. Learn more at figure.com.

Matty A. dives into the world of crypto-backed mortgages, explaining how you can use Bitcoin or Ethereum as collateral to finance a home—without selling your crypto.Why This MattersKeep your crypto gains intact: Avoid selling and triggering capital gains taxesFaster and easier transactions: Lenders like Milo, USDC.Homes, and Figure offer no-credit-check loans and quick fundingFHFA update: Regulators are now exploring crypto as a recognized asset for mortgage applicants at Fannie Mae and Freddie MacHow Crypto Mortgages WorkPledge crypto as collateral (often 100% of loan value or more)Receive fiat funds for your purchaseLoan repayment in traditional currency — collateral returned when paid in fullBeware of margin calls — if crypto value drops, you may need more collateralPros & ConsProsPreserve crypto upside potentialNo cash down payment or credit check neededFaster closings than traditional loansConsCrypto volatility risks collateral liquidationPlatform risk — fewer regulations than banksWho's It For?Crypto-holders confident in long-term market growthBuyers wanting fast, streamlined access to liquidityIndividuals with thin qualifying profiles for traditional loansAction StepsResearch crypto mortgage lenders: Milo, USDC.Homes, Figure, Ledn, RockoPrepare documentation: Proof of holdings, escrow/custody proceduresBuild a cash buffer for margin call scenariosStay updated: FHFA's evolving stance, mortgage market trendsKey TakeawaysCrypto mortgages offer a strategic way to leverage digital assets without sellingThey're fast, flexible, and tax-efficient but come with volatility and collateral risksWith FHFA backing, crypto is beginning to gain real legitimacy in mainstream lendingTune In & ShareListen now to discover if a crypto mortgage makes sense for your next real estate move and how to get started. Don't forget to rate & review Wise Investor Segment, and follow Matty A. on social media for more investing insights!Episode Sponsored By:Discover Financial Millionaire Mindcast Shop: Buy the Rich Life Planner and Get the Wealth-Building Bundle for FREE! Visit: https://shop.millionairemindcast.com/CRE MASTERMIND: Visit myfirst50k.com and submit your application to join!FREE CRE Crash Course: Text “FREE” to 844-447-1555

What did you think of todays show??It's a buyer's market, but sellers aren't the only ones making concessions. In this episode, you'll hear how we're managing seller concessions and protecting our margins even when we have to negotiate.We're seeing good flips struggling to make a profit, cash becoming more important than ever, and even lenders trying to offload bad debt. Tune in to hear how our investment strategy has changed, including what deals we're avoiding and our plans for the winter slowdown!Topics discussed:Introduction (00:00)Warrantable vs. non-warrantable condos (02:46)Why we struggled to sell our condos (04:30)How we manage seller concessions (11:37)Why we're not taking on big projects (16:52)How we're preparing for a slow winter market (19:52)Will the Fed raise interest rates? (21:36)Where we're investing during this inflationary period (25:11)Geopolitical tensions and real estate (31:31)Lenders are offering distressed debt deals (34:40)Learn more about the Collecting Keys SCALE Community! https://collectingkeys.com/scale/Check out the FREE Collecting Keys “Invest Anywhere” Guide to learn how to find deals in ANY MARKET Completely virtually (this is how we scaled to over a dozen markets)!https://instantinvestor.collectingkeys.com/invest-anywhereFollow us on Instagram!https://www.instagram.com/collectingkeyspodcast/https://www.instagram.com/mike_invests/https://www.instagram.com/investormandan/https://www.instagram.com/dylan_does_dealsThis episode was produced by Podcast Boutique https://www.podcastboutique.com

In this conversation, Stephen Schmidt interviews James Mendelsohn, a seasoned expert in real estate financing. They discuss James's extensive career in lending, the current trends in the lending market, and the various loan options available to investors. James shares insights on how to position financials attractively to lenders, the impact of rising interest rates, and how investors can adapt to tighter capital conditions. He emphasizes the importance of transparency in financial dealings and offers advice for both novice and experienced investors. The conversation concludes with James's plans to launch an equity fund, showcasing his commitment to evolving in the real estate finance space.   Professional Real Estate Investors - How we can help you: Investor Fuel Mastermind:  Learn more about the Investor Fuel Mastermind, including 100% deal financing, massive discounts from vendors and sponsors you're already using, our world class community of over 150 members, and SO much more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/apply   Investor Machine Marketing Partnership:  Are you looking for consistent, high quality lead generation? Investor Machine is America's #1 lead generation service professional investors. Investor Machine provides true ‘white glove' support to help you build the perfect marketing plan, then we'll execute it for you…talking and working together on an ongoing basis to help you hit YOUR goals! Learn more here: http://www.investormachine.com   Coaching with Mike Hambright:  Interested in 1 on 1 coaching with Mike Hambright? Mike coaches entrepreneurs looking to level up, build coaching or service based businesses (Mike runs multiple 7 and 8 figure a year businesses), building a coaching program and more. Learn more here: https://investorfuel.com/coachingwithmike   Attend a Vacation/Mastermind Retreat with Mike Hambright: Interested in joining a “mini-mastermind” with Mike and his private clients on an upcoming “Retreat”, either at locations like Cabo San Lucas, Napa, Park City ski trip, Yellowstone, or even at Mike's East Texas “Big H Ranch”? Learn more here: http://www.investorfuel.com/retreat   Property Insurance: Join the largest and most investor friendly property insurance provider in 2 minutes. Free to join, and insure all your flips and rentals within minutes! There is NO easier insurance provider on the planet (turn insurance on or off in 1 minute without talking to anyone!), and there's no 15-30% agent mark up through this platform!  Register here: https://myinvestorinsurance.com/   New Real Estate Investors - How we can work together: Investor Fuel Club (Coaching and Deal Partner Community): Looking to kickstart your real estate investing career? Join our one of a kind Coaching Community, Investor Fuel Club, where you'll get trained by some of the best real estate investors in America, and partner with them on deals! You don't need $ for deals…we'll partner with you and hold your hand along the way! Learn More here: http://www.investorfuel.com/club   —--------------------

What if the biggest risk to your private lending business isn't the borrower… but your servicing process? Today's guest discovered that firsthand—and instead of settling for outdated systems, he built something better.Welcome to the lenders playbook podcast. Your go to resources  for private lending, real estate, and entrepreneurship.Today on The Lender's Playbook, we're diving into the origin story of Petra loan servicing with its founder Joseph Dillamore, who went from solving his own lending challenges in the UK to building a national servicing powerhouse here in the U.S. You'll hear how outdated systems and scattered communication inspired him to create a better solution, what it actually looks like to onboard a lender and why Petra's borrower-first approach is improving loan performance across the board. If you're a lender looking to streamline your servicing, improve borrower communication, and grow with confidence, this episode will show you how Petra can help you do just that—without the headaches.

Host Olivia Voltaggio is joined by Shandor Whitcher, Economist at Moody's Analytics, for a timely check-in on the U.S. economy. They discuss the recent shift from early-year optimism to growing uncertainty driven by shifting trade policy, rising jobless claims, and inflation concerns. Shandor breaks down the latest GDP and consumer credit data, explores warning signs from small businesses, and shares the top economic indicators he's watching for the rest of the year.Resources:CreditForecast.com is a joint venture between Equifax and Moody's Analytics. Get actionable consumer credit, economic and demographic data, forecasts, and analysis.Register for Market Pulse webinars to get relevant economic and credit insights to help your business make more confident decisions.Learn more about our Market Pulse podcast, and contact us at marketpulsepodcast@equifax.com

What started as a niche alternative could become a nearly $3 trillion juggernaut by 2028. In this conversation, we explore where the money is coming from, how borrowers and lenders are coping with tough conditions, and what lies ahead for the asset class—including possible new regulations. Host: Colin Ellis, Head of Centre for Credit Research, Moody's RatingsGuest: Christina Padgett, Associate Managing Director, Corporate Finance Group, Moody's RatingsRelated Research:• Private Credit – Cross Region – Private market retail to fuel opportunity but intensify liquidity, asset quality risks 10 June 2025• Private Credit Insights – Global – Private credit, a refuge in turbulent times, set to take share again 17 April 2025• Private Credit – Global – 2025 Outlook – Primed for growth as LBOs revive, ABF opportunities accelerate 21 Jan 2025

No Two Lenders Are Identical - #276 In this episode, "No Two Lenders Are Identical," we're exploring how private lending can be tailored to fit your personal goals and lifestyle. From deal types to capital sources, portfolio size, and whether to stay active or go passive, there's no one-size-fits-all approach to private lending. Join us as we discuss: ✅ How to craft your lending business to match your goals ✅ Different deal types (fix & flip, ground-up, commercial, etc.) ✅ Capital sources – self-funding, investor capital, or institutional ✅ When to grow your team and the role of software ✅ Why some lenders love commercial while others stick to residential ✅ The importance of knowing yourself and your comfort zone We're also excited to share that we've partnered with https://joinlendr.com/ – a game-changing platform for lenders. Mention the Private Lenders Podcast to get $250 off your onboarding fee! Whether you're just starting out or looking to fine-tune your operation, this episode is packed with insights to help you build the lending business that's right for you.

Navigating Multifamily CRE in a Volatile Environment Insights from Paul Fiorilla, Director of U.S. Research at Yardi Matrix   Paul Fiorilla offers a data-driven view of today's commercial real estate (CRE) landscape using the vast resources he has at his disposal at Yardi.   While market sentiment may be growing more optimistic, Fiorilla acknowledges investors should separate short-term mood from long-term fundamentals. His perspective, rooted in close analysis of multifamily data and macro conditions, is both pragmatic and cautionary: yes, there's capital on the sidelines and deals are getting done but many investors may be misreading the durability of recent tailwinds and underestimating latent risks.   Short-Term Confidence, Long-Term Industry   Real estate is an inherently long-term, illiquid asset class yet, much of the current market behavior appears to be anchored in short-term confidence (and short term memories). That dissonance should give investors pause. While macroeconomic shocks like tariffs, interest rate hikes, and political uncertainty do not immediately register in quarterly CRE data, their effects compound over time.   Investor sentiment, meanwhile, remains buoyant. Debt markets have resumed activity, stock indices are back near prior highs, and many assume the worst is behind us. But the lagging nature of real estate data means we're still months away from fully seeing the impacts of recent fiscal and geopolitical developments.   Multifamily Fundamentals: A Shifting Landscape   Fiorilla addresses the fundamentals of the multifamily sector, noting that demand has remained strong in recent years, but the distribution of that demand is shifting. Rent growth is no longer universal. Over the past 15 months, metros in the Midwest and Northeast, markets like Chicago and New York, have consistently posted moderate, steady rent growth. In contrast, high-growth Sunbelt cities such as Austin, Atlanta, Nashville, and Salt Lake City are experiencing flat to negative rent trends.   What's driving this bifurcation is primarily supply. In oversupplied markets, absorption hasn't kept pace with new deliveries. Despite a sharp national decline in starts, down approximately 40% year-over-year, the existing pipeline remains heavy. Nationally, over 1.2 million units are either in lease-up or under construction. In high-growth markets, deliveries will continue at elevated levels for the next several years. Some cities may see 12–15% added to their multifamily inventory by 2027.   Fiorilla underscores that while national numbers suggest a tapering of supply, the local realities are more complex. Markets that arguably need more housing, Los Angeles, New York, and Chicago for example, are seeing similar slowdowns in new development as oversaturated markets. The result is a continued misalignment between where capital is building and where it's most needed.   The Waning Tailwinds of Demand   Fiorilla also points to softening demand drivers that may soon undermine current assumptions. Over the past several years, demand has been supported by several powerful tailwinds: robust job growth, high immigration, and pandemic-era trends such as household formation and suburban relocation. But these are now tapering.   Net immigration, while still meaningful, is slowing. Job growth has begun to decelerate. Moreover, federal employment cuts and delays in private-sector hiring – driven by political and fiscal uncertainty – are contributing to a weakening outlook for household formation. These are not necessarily signs of imminent distress, but they do suggest that the extraordinary absorption rates of 2021–2022 will be difficult to sustain.   As Fiorilla puts it, “the risks are to the downside.” He's not forecasting a collapse but cautions against overreliance on recent performance when underwriting future deals, particularly in light of ongoing supply pressure.   Policy Risk and the Fragility of Subsidized Housing   Among the more underappreciated risks in the market, Fiorilla emphasizes policy risk, especially in affordable and subsidized housing. He notes that while programs like LIHTC and Opportunity Zones appear safe, others such as Section 8 are under pressure.   Of particular concern are proposals to convert these programs into state-administered block grants. While this may seem like a technocratic shift, it would represent a material change for property owners. Federal guarantees would be replaced by varying state-level funding regimes, increasing payment risk and reducing the predictability that underpins underwriting in the subsidized housing sector. For owners reliant on these programs, even modest payment disruptions could be “catastrophic,” he notes.   Interest Rate Volatility: The Real Pain Point   Turning to capital markets, Fiorilla distinguishes between the level of interest rates and the pace at which they change. Today's rates, he argues, are not historically high. Pre-GFC, rates were often at similar levels. What's destabilizing is the speed of change. A sharp increase from near-zero to 4–5% within a single year has impaired refinancing feasibility and upended underwriting assumptions.   This volatility, not the rates themselves, has created most of the current distress. Borrowers facing refinancing at double or triple the prior coupon are under strain. And yet, transaction activity persists, with many deals still pricing at thin or even negative leverage. Why? Because the #1 driver of compressed cap rates is investor confidence in future cash flows. The belief that rents will continue to rise justifies aggressive pricing – until it doesn't.   This mindset echoes pre-GFC sentiment, where rent growth was taken as a given. Fiorilla is quick to clarify that today's market is not nearly as reckless. Still, elevated pricing in an environment of cooling fundamentals could leave investors dangerously exposed to even mild shocks.   Quiet Distress and the Maturity Wall   Another issue masked by short-term optimism is the growing volume of loan maturities. These include both regularly scheduled maturities and loans previously extended during 2021–2023 that are now reaching their end.   Fiorilla notes that many of these are being addressed quietly. Lenders, reluctant to force asset sales, are working with borrowers on a case-by-case basis. The result: distress is real, but it's largely invisible. There's little evidence of forced portfolio liquidations or widespread delinquencies – yet.   The availability of capital, particularly for multifamily, is helping to buffer these pressures. There's no shortage of dry powder. But absent a sharp rate reversal or improved clarity from policymakers, the sector could see a slow bleed of marginal deals rather than a systemic reset.   Underappreciated Geopolitical Risk   One of the most thought-provoking parts of the conversation concerns CRE's growing sensitivity to global and political dynamics. This is a structural change. The U.S. has long benefited from its role as a stable, rule-of-law jurisdiction. But shifts in foreign policy, trade restrictions, and political dysfunction are beginning to weigh on foreign investment.   Declining Canadian cross-border investment and tighter restrictions on visa travel are, in part, evidence of this shift. These aren't headline stories but they are meaningful. If the U.S. loses its perception as a reliable haven for capital, CRE pricing could face downward pressure from shrinking foreign demand. This is a long-term trend worth monitoring closely, not a transitory blip.   What He's Watching   When asked what indicators he watches most closely, Fiorilla points to three primary metrics: Occupancy Rates – Particularly in high-supply markets. Stabilized occupancy below 94% would be an early warning sign. Absorption Trends – A sustained drop in household formation or leasing activity could signal weakening demand. Employment Data – Job losses, especially if broad-based, would ripple into rent growth and occupancy. He also monitors transaction volume as a proxy for investor confidence. If deal flow freezes again, that would signal a recalibration of forward expectations.   Final Reflection   While Fiorilla resists giving investment advice, his closing thoughts reflect a conservative posture. He's not sitting on the sidelines entirely but he's not rushing in either. Caution, portfolio balance, and realistic expectations are the guiding principles.   For CRE professionals, this conversation is a reminder to look past sentiment and dig into the data and the fundamentals: local supply pipelines, policy shifts, interest rate trends, and the fragility of assumptions underpinning future rent growth. The macro backdrop is far from stable and the margin for error, even in multifamily, may be thinner than it appears.   *** In this series, I cut through the noise to examine how shifting macroeconomic forces and rising geopolitical risk are reshaping real estate investing.   With insights from economists, academics, and seasoned professionals, this show helps investors respond to market uncertainty with clarity, discipline, and a focus on downside protection.    Subscribe to my free newsletter for timely updates, insights, and tools to help you navigate today's volatile real estate landscape. You'll get: Straight talk on what happens when confidence meets correction - no hype, no spin, no fluff. Real implications of macro trends for investors and sponsors with actionable guidance. Insights from real estate professionals who've been through it all before. Visit GowerCrowd.com/subscribe Email: adam@gowercrowd.com Call: 213-761-1000

Demand for cars is on the rise — but auto lenders are tightening standards and rejecting potential borrowers. Wall Street Journal reporter Imani Moise joins host Julia Carpenter to talk about what frustrated car shoppers can do to beat the expected tariff-related price increases.  Sign up for the WSJ's free Markets A.M. newsletter.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices