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Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the market's long-running bull market is "on thin ice right now," from a technical standpoint, having fallen below its 200-day moving average, leaving the market "at a really interesting juncture," and making him defensive, building more cash, loading up on utilities and safe sectors and waiting to see how it plays out. Samuelson says that if the market breaks down -- with a decline accelerated by reactions to government tariff policies -- it could drop another 15 percent or more, putting the market squarely into correction territory off of its February highs. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, is more interested in the recent rally in international stocks than he is in the possible impact of tariffs on the markets there, and picks a T. Rowe Price international fund as the ETF of the Week. Susan Fahy discusses the latest Credit Gauge from VantageScore, which shows that the resumption of student loan payments has negatively impacted credit scores and will drop them further, as other indicators suggest consumer finances are slowly declining. Plus Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" approach for stocks to the Market Call, and Chuck gives his initial take on what Wednesday's tariff news means for consumers.
Eric Crittenden, chief investment officer at Standpoint Asset Management, says the market has weakened to where there are no "great, super-strong trends out there," but he thinks the market is entering a transition period where new trends will start and emerge. That transition may not include a recession, Crittenden says, because "the algebra says to me that it's going to be hard to have a recession," due to the government actions that have staved it off and made it hard to forecast what's next. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes with something new as his ETF of the Week focuses on one of the nine new Ethereum funds that debuted earlier this week. Chip Lupo discusses the 2024 Money and Relationships Survey from WalletHub, which showed that nearly 40 percent of Americans have a financial account that their partner doesn't know about. In the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses "beat and replace" investing.
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns with his annual forecasts for the stock market, the economy, the financial industry and more in the year ahead. He notes that the consensus for 2024 is a soft landing, but he thinks the lagged impact of everything that cause recessions -- massively higher interest rates, retail inventory levels rising, savings rates coming down and more -- will finally lead to a mild recession in the middle of this year. Doll also thinks that stocks could finish the year in the red. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of Vettafi turns to an actively managed short-term bond fund for his ETF of the Week, and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, talks "beat and raise investing" in the Market Call.
Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says that the primary trends he is seeing right now are up, and he is expecting more of a breakout because we are in the early stages of a bull market, but while that trend is positive, Pring says he has low expectations for the current cycle because the market is in the process of transitioning from a secular bull market to a secular bear market, which he thinks will leave markets range-bound for several years, even if the trend for the remainder of the year is generally positive. Also on the show, Haydar Haba of Andra Capital talks the future of global de-dollarization and his take on how artificial intelligence compares to 'revolutions' of the past, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen points to the hidey holes used to obscure cash in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money' and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks 'beat and replace' investing in the Market Call.
Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund and the Dividend and Income Fund, says that investors have to adjust their psychology to recognize that it is a preserve of value, and while it has struggled this year in its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, it will hold up well against bonds, where investors have been lured by higher yields that look good but can't keep pace with inflation. Winmill says central bankers around the world have been buying it and that they have a good track record for timing a recovery, which he thinks will happen gradually ove the next three to six months as the dollar weakens. Winmill notes that investors who have tried to use cryptocurrency instead of gold as an inflation hedge have suffered much larger losses than gold investors this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com takes an unusual step -- pegged to this week's election -- as his pick for ETF of the Week is influenced by politics, and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, talks about "beat and raise" stock investing in the Market Call.
Joe Kalish, chief global macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that longer-term inflation will be what determines whether the economy can continue to avoid a recession and the market can sidestep a protracted downturn. With that in mind, Kalish expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates repeatedly until it can be confident that inflation has peaked, is passing through temporary troubles and gets to long-term target levels at 2.1 percent. Kalish, says, though, that he believes that goal will take longer than the Fed expects to be accomplished, meaning that economic doldrums will also go on for longer than forecast. In The NAVigator segment, Mitchel Penn of Oppenheimer and Co., talks about the challenges of analyzing and evaluating business-development companies, highlighting why one particular BDC -- Runway Growth Finance Corp. -- appears ready to outperform the market and the competition. And in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research for FBB Capital Partners, talks about taking a "beat and raise" approach to managing a portfolio of stocks during trying market conditions.
We are expecting more earnings beats in 3Q despite significant out performance in 2Q, says Mike Bailey, Director of Research at FBB Capital Partners. He gives an overview of today's market and discusses why markets are continuing to fall. He also talks about 3Q earnings expectations and how futures are lower as traders prepare for the first full week of October trading. Tune in to find out more.
Mike Bailey, Director of Research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses why big tech has more room to run. He talks about the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) Amazon (AMZN) being up only 2.5% YTD. He then mentions his sectors to watch, including financials and health care, as well as the importance of the could for big tech. Finally, he goes over the outlook for the markets, highlighting the SPDR series Trust S&P REGL BKG ETF (KRE). Tune in to find out more.
Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle, says that the muni market has had a good summer, but got a bit softer in August and is likely to stay that way while waiting to see how government infrastructure plans and any potential tax increases play out. Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com -- for the second week in a row -- makes a classic fund that now is available as an exchange-traded fund his ETF of the Week; one difference this week is that the fund is a cornerstone in Chuck's portfolio. Also on the show, Barry Metzger of Charles Schwab talks about the latest Traders Pulse survey, which looks at the sentiment of investors who are making at least three dozen transactions per year, and in the Market Call, Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, discusses his 'beat and raise' strategy for buying stocks with momentum.
Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the broad market is trading roughly five percent below its fair value, which is a good target for returns over the rest of the year. Callahan is excited by the earnings forecasts for 2021 and 2022, citing 'outrageous year-over-year growth rates' as a reason to believe there will be good value stocks to be had. Also on the show, David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says that 3700 is a 'line in the sand' for the Standard and Poor's 500 Index, noting that if the market can remain above that level it should be able to avoid a significant downturn during the current rotation from a technology and large-cap driven market to one led by small-caps and value stocks; Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the high percentage of investors who believe the stock market is rigged, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Martin Pring of Pring research says that investors may intuitively feel that the stock market has rebounded too quickly from March lows and might be expecting a downturn, but notes that the indicators he relies on are showing that stocks are oversold. As a result, Pring suggests going with the head -- and the mathematics of technical analysis -- and pay attention to numbers showing that the market has a lot of upside momentum that could extend the current rally by at least 10 percent and that could make it last several more years. Also on the show, veteran financial journalist John Waggoner talks about why the media overlooks closed-end funds, author Frank Stricker discusses unemployment from a past, present and future perspective, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call.
Before there is any form of “second wave” of COVID-19 globally, the stock market may first experience a second wave of selling as it once again prices in worse-case scenarios for economies and companies. “We think you’re more likely to see a second wave down from markets as opposed to a second wave up in COVID-19 — we have concerns here,” said FBB Capital Partners director of research on Yahoo Finance’s The First Trade.
Veteran money manager Sam Stewart, partner at Seven Canyons Advisors, said that while the market is at record highs, valuations are bifurcated to where the popular names like the FANG stocks and many technology names are too expensive, but that other names have become attractive because they are growing at a time when the economy is slowing. Also on the show, John Kiernan of WalletHub.com talks about how many consumers fear maxing out credit cards, David Trainer of New Constructs pus another pre-IPO stock in the 'Danger Zone,' and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, does some pairs trading in the Market Call.
Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, say that with the market having reached new highs, it's now getting more complex. He's still bullish, but he does see potential troubles down the line, making this a time when investors can be 'rewarded handsomely' for being aggressively long on stocks. John Sarson of the Sarson Funds explains in the Big Interview why 'The Internet and cryptocurrency go together like peanut butter and jelly,' Chuck explores the latest weird financial news, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners covers stocks in the Market Call.
Patrick O'Hare, chief market strategist at Briefing.com, said that investors have a ice opportunity to put some money to work based on how everyone was getting panicky over recession talk at the end of last year. He believes the market was overly negative, which has created opportunity, though he thinks gains will be muted and market action will be choppy. Also on the show, Matt Schulz of CompareCards.com discusses why most people would rather lose debt than lose weight this year, Chuck answers an audience question, and Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners talks stocks in the Market Call
David Welch, Detroit Bureau chief for Bloomberg, on GM announcing $1 billion in US investments, answering to pressure from Trump. Rob Hutton, UK government and politics reporter for Bloomberg, on Theresa May's outline to take the UK out of the single market. Joe Carroll, Energy Americas reporter for Bloomberg, on Exxon buying Permian Basin assets from the Bass Family. Mike Bailey, CFA, Director of Research at FBB Capital Partners, on his bullish outlook for healthcare and industrials.
(Bloomberg) -- Taking Stock with Kathleen Hays and Pimm Fox. GUEST: Mike Bailey, Director of Research at FBB Capital Partners, on earnings, what’s driving the markets, and the latest in the Google/Oracle case.
Jamie talks to Todd about his day to day operations at FBB Capital Partners, helping people to make the best choices when planning for retirement and the "golden years". Jamie's approach starts by removing all products and services that may be perceived as "conflict of interest", a view toward the long term, and looking at a client's total financial situation.