TD Ameritrade Network

The U.S. Dollar moving lower and the stock market moving higher have both benefited the price of crude oil. Crude oil continues to make lower highs. Carley Garner sees resistance between $78 to $80 and is bullish long-term on the energy commodity. When speculators pile back in, the crude oil price will move up sharply. Another recent in the latest rally have to do with the supply disruptions in Africa.

The U.S. Dollar price moved lower today below the $100 level. Over the last month, there has been an accumulation of short betting. How is the U.S. Dollar impacted by this week's inflation data like the CPI and PPI? Other currencies are playing catchup. Federal Reserve's Waller called for two more interest rate increases. Scott Bauer says that the market is relying on being close to the terminal rate.

The economy is currently complex and a mixed picture, notes Cheryl Smith. She discusses how major indices are on track for a winning week. She talks about the headline CPI is bouncing around but is trending down. She goes over how leading economic indicators are forecasting a recession with high probability which will happen slowly until it happens all at once. She also looks at negative signs in a strong labor market. She previews the next FOMC meeting, highlighting the CME FedWatch Tool. She then mentions how futures are mixed as big banks kick earnings season into gear. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Improving breadth is healthy development but sentiment has gotten a bit frothy, notes Liz Ann Sonders. She discusses the Consumer Price Index for June 2023. CPI month-over-month came in a 0.2% versus an estimated 0.3% and a prior 0.1%. She talks about tomorrow's notable premarket earnings include JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), and United Healthcare (UNH). She also goes over how some give-back might come near-term. She continues to be sector-neutral and think investors should not in monolithically. She previews the next FOMC meeting which will take place July 25-26. In terms of earnings, investors should focus as much on revenue growth and profit margins as the earnings beats or misses, she highlights. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The crude oil price is back up to $76 today due to a technical momentum, short covering, and easing inflation pressures. On the demand side, refinery runs are strong and OPEC+ production cuts are coming through. Matt Smith weighs in on a weaker U.S. Dollar impact on energy prices, as well as headwinds coming from China. Also, OPEC sees stronger oil demand in 2024.

The CPI or Consumer Price Index data came in lower than expected, which is good news for risk assets like the equity market. Will this have an effect on the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting? Bob Iaccino says that this is still rising prices. Inflation is easing, but still above targeted levels. When there is an increased gap between actual wages and real wages, that will worry the Fed.

Goldman Sachs raised Nvidia's (NVDA) price target to $495 from $440. The analyst notes that NVVDA is a "key enabler for traditional A.I." and there is "significant runaway" for the chipmaker's data center business. NVDA is up over 190% year-to-date. Additionally, Jefferies raised its price target on Tesla (TSLA) to $256 from $185 and keeps its buy rating. The analyst highlights that 2Q will be a trough in a auto gross margin. It suggests a shift in valuation drivers with TSLA's early focus on AI-based autonomy "standing out." TSLA is up 122% year-to-date. Renita Young weighs in on NVDA and TSLA. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Chinese authorities announce $984M fine for Alibaba (BABA) affiliate Ant Group. Jenny Horne discusses this as the fine would bring short-term pain, but may signal the end to Chinese regulatory pressures on the tech sector. She then goes over how Wolfe Research downgrades Paramount (PARA) and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD). Wolfe notes that PARA says linear advertising exposure is an "Achilles heel under attack." The analyst also says that the risk of significant TV advertising downturn is imminent in relation to WBD. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Apple (AAPL) is planning a slow rollout of the Vision Pro Headsets, according to Bloomberg. Kevin Green discusses this as Apple is planning a special demo section for Vision Pro at stores in major metropolitan areas. The device will be sold at all of Apple's approximately 270 U.S. locations. Apple is to offer its headset other countries at the end of 2024. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The June 2023 U.S. employment report was released and indicated 209K in non-farm payrolls, lower than expected. The stock market today seems to be reacting positively to this data. However, Scott Bauer highlights that the wages number ticked up and that is something the Federal Reserve will be watching. This is a reflection of a strong consumer and could mean a 25BPS interest rare hike in the upcoming meeting.

Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Occidental Petroleum (OXY) are some of Neal Dingmann's energy stock picks. He discusses reasons for weakness in energy stocks this year, highlighting crude oil (/CL). He also talks about what to respect from upcoming energy earnings. He notes that the Energy Sector SPDR (XLE) is down over 8% in 2023. He also goes over how Truist has a hold rating on CVX and XOM and a buy rating on OXY. Tune in to find out more about the energy market and the stock market today.

Newly released Fed-created financial conditions index (FCI-G) shows conditions as tighter than picked up by traditional FCIs (like Bloomberg's or Goldman's), notes Liz Ann Sonders. She discusses how futures are lower as weakness in overseas markets weigh on indices. She talks about how sector and index members above 50-DMA. She highlights that there is a high likelihood that Fed raising 25bps at July FOMC meeting (88% probability per CME); but any further hikes will be data dependent. She also goes over how sentiment, for the most part, has moved into excessive optimism territory. Based on history, it can stay there for a while; but frothiness leaves market vulnerable if a negative catalyst appears. She then previews today's upcoming economic data which includes JOLTs, PMI Composite Final, and ISM Services. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Baird downgraded American Express (AXP) to neutral from outperform. Jenny Horne discusses this as the Baird analyst says that the risk/reward is more balanced following significant outperformance. The analyst continues to like AXP and its ability to drive sales growth, but no longer sees risk/reward as attractive. Jenny then compares AXP to master Card (MA) and Visa (V). She then goes over how Affirm (AFRM) has been downgraded by Piper Sandler. The analyst expects persistently higher interest rates to pressure operating margins. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

"Get comfortable" with higher rates, they're going to be here for a while. notes Mike Davis. He discusses show futures are lower as weak China economic data weighs on global markets. He talks about how May factor orders data will be released at 10:00am ET and the FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00pm ET today. He talks about interest trends to watch which include food manufacturers and the housing outlook with mortgage rates high. He then goes over when inflation will get down to the Fed's 2% target. He also mentions how consumers' purchasing power will impact the economy. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

What does the weak economic data out of China and Japan indicate for currency traders? The Australian Dollar seems to be the most affected and the Japanese Yen has been under pressure all year. Bob Iaccino says that there is a global manufacturing recession. Are central bank interest rate hikes coming to an end? Iaccino also weighs in on how equity and commodity markets are impacted.

Coinbase (COIN) has created too much uncertainty to prudently project revenues in future years, according to Piper Sandler. Kevin Green discusses COIN as Piper Sandler expects 2-year lows in 2Q for quarterly trading volumes and monthly transacting user totals. Kevin also talks about how movement in bitcoin (/BTC) impacts COIN. Piper Sandler downgraded COIN to neutral from overweight. COIN is up 120% year-to-date. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Tesla (TSLA) reports record China deliveries. TLSA sold 247,217 China-made cars from April to June. Renita Young discusses TSLA, as well as Rivian (RIVN) whose shares continue their Monday rally. RIVN announces the rolling out of Amazon (AMZN) Electric Delivery Vans in Germany. There will be 300 vans debuting in Germany, over 1,000 to be used. RIVN is up for sixth straight day. Renita also goes over how D.A. Davidson raised RIVN's price target to $18 from $11. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Macau reports June casino revenues up 513.19% year-over-year. Chad Beynon discusses the outlook for the casino and gaming sector. He talks about how Macquarie initiated coverage of Gambling.com (GAMB) with an outperform rating and a $13 price target. GAMB is a provider of digital marketing services in the online gambling industry with its principal focus is on iGaming and sports betting. He talks about how GAMB is a leading player in the online gambling affiliate space. He then goes over casino stocks to keep on your radar. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Nio Inc. (NIO), XPeng (XPEV), and Li Auto (LI) reported 2Q delivery results. Caroline Woods discusses this as NIO delivered 23,520 vehicles in 2Q, which is down from 25,059 last year. XPEV delivered 23,205 vehicles in 2Q, representing a quarter-over-quarter growth of 27%. XPEV reports sequential growth in June deliveries. Caroline also talks about how Fidelity National (FIS) shares are rallying on the Financial Times report of a possible Worldpay spin off. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Tesla's (TSLA) price cuts implemented early in 2023 have paid major dividends, notes Dan Ives. Renita Young discusses TSLA as it reports 2Q deliveries and production numbers. Its deliveries came in at 466,140, which is up 83% year-over-year. She talks about how Deutsche Bank and Canaccord Genuity have a buy rating on TSLA while Goldman Sachs has a neutral rating and JPMorgan has an underweight rating on the stock. Dan Ives' Wedbush note also states that TSLA is still on track to hit its 1.8M-unit delivery bogey for the year. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Tesla (TSLA) is to report deliveries this week and we will see the impact of the discount that they have started to offer as well as other incentives of the tax credit, notes Kevin Green. He talks about how we will see if it had a meaningful impact on not only production numbers, but delivery number. He discusses how TSLA is expected to report global deliveries of 445,000 vehicles from April to June. He also highlights that TSLA is up over 112% year-to-date. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The Apple (AAPL) stock price opened at a new all-time high and will reach the $3T valuation with close at or above $190.73. Citi initiated coverage with a buy rating on the AAPL stock with a price target to street-high $240. Next, Jenny Horne weighs in on Nvidia (NVDA) being the best performer in the S&P 500 Index or SPX. Daiwa raised the NVDA stock price target to $475 from $408. The analyst has confidence in Nvidia's commanding position for A.I. and generative A.I. and sees it difficult for competitors to replicate the success in the near-term.

Breadth is deteriorating a bit again, notes Liz Ann Sonders. She discusses how futures are muted as 1Q GDP beats estimates and major indices are higher for the week. She talks about jobless claims for the week of June 24th as initial claims came in at 239K versus an estimated 266K. She then goes over what to expect from the Fed. Powell expects multiple interest rate increases ahead and possibly at an aggressive pace. Liz Ann notes that the Russell 2000 doesn't have a profitability filter, has quite a few zombie companies, and is trading at a forward P/E of 24. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The gold price has had three straight weeks of selloffs. Should traders compare gold to the 2-year yield, and what is gold's relationship to the U.S. Dollar? Also, the silver price has recaptured its 200-day moving average. Phil Streible says that the ETF outflows, resilience of U.S. equities, and a lack of a sustained bullish catalyst are what is driving the metals commodities today. Gold's key level of support is around the $1,900 level.

Joby Aviation (JOBY) shares are surging today after the FAA gives the air-taxi a go-ahead for the first test flight. The Joby Aviation business model is similar to a rideshare app. Caroline Woods weighs in on the company hoping to offer commercial flights on its all-electric aircraft by 2025. Also, the Toyota CEO is set to join Joby Aviation's Board on Saturday. The JOBY stock price is up 148% year-to-date.

Oppenheimer has raised the Netflix (NFLX) stock price target to $500 from $450. The analyst anticipates higher subscribers on bullish indicators for paid sharing. Netflix's share of U.S. TV viewership of 2.6% quarter-to-date versus 2.3% last year. Kevin Green weighs in on Netflix possibly discontinuing their lowest ad-free plan after testing in Canada. The NFLX stock price hit a 52-week high on June 15th.

Chip stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD are falling this morning after a report of further restrictions on A.I. chip sales to China by the Biden Administration. U.S. companies would need to obtain a special license to sell them as new commerce department rules could be in place as soon as early July 2023. Renita Young weighs in on U.S. concerns about A.I. technology being available in China.

Are we in a trap between positive U.S. economic data and weaker China economic data? The gold price has fallen to the lowest level since March 2023. The Russian risk has de-escalated, but still remains. Will Rhind says that the U.S. Dollar price firming is not good for gold. Recessionary pressures, however, would help the commodity. Is gold a hedge against an ever-rising stock market today?

Are trends going the right way for the Federal Reserve? Canada got off their pause and raised interest rates and they had weaker inflation figures than the market expected. Bob Iaccino says that both equity and commodity markets are torn between how weak the economy will get versus the strength of the consumer. Also, crude oil tends to trade in ranges for long periods of time. Since February 2023, the crude oil price has been in a wide down-trending channel.

Are technology mega cap stocks still driving the stock market today? There seems to be participation from other sectors as well. Is it possible that the sentiment will switch from an inflation risk to a recession risk? Pete Najarian says that materials and energy sectors could drive the market to the upside. Homebuilder stocks and option activity indicate heavy trade volume as well.

Bernstein downgraded Alphabet (GOOGL) to market perform from outperform after the stock saw a downgrade yesterday. The analyst cites similar concerns, saying Alphabet's push into generative A.I. could cannibalize its ad revenue for Google Search. Renita Young breaks down the GOOGL story and Walgreens (WBA) earnings. WBA dropped after disappointing the Street on its 3Q earnings, especially as COVID vaccination revenue falls.

Inflation across the world could see a rebound in the second half of the year if the PMI data changes, says Jeffrey Kleintop. He talks about the correlation between global PMI & CPI (manufacturing vs services) and what the data might signal for international economies and the risks of recession. He's looking for signs that the services sector is slowing down to match the manufacturing sector, such as slowing job growth. Oliver and Jeffrey also discuss the possibility of a "trampoline landing". Jeffrey warns that if commodities are about to hit their 5th straight quarter of declines, which has only been seen one other time this century. However, he thinks commodities could see a rebound this summer.

Tesla (TSLA) shares are recovering some of their losses today from yesterday. Bair likes TSLA as their best stock pick for the year. The analyst stated that Tesla is a core holding. Caroline Woods weighs in on the upcoming production and delivery figures for the electric vehicle manufacturer. Next, Citi raised the Meta Platforms (META) stock price target to $360 from $315. The analyst believes that broader online advertising is "stable-to-improving," while saying that Reels is experiencing greater advertiser adoption given its "lofi" approach to ads.

What is behind gold's summer slide? There was recently a red candle on the weekly chart for the commodity that could be concerning for bullish traders. Everett Millman from Gainesville Coins says that the gold price is experiencing weakness that has not been seen since January 2023. Typically, gold thrives on geopolitical uncertainty. However, now due to summer seasonality, gold is not thriving. Millman also states that historically when the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, it does not follow up with another hike.

The S&P 500 Index or SPX recently broke out of the 4,200 resistance level. Chris Robinson from TJM Institutional Services weighs in on the correlation between rates and equities. What is the difference between an inflation versus an economic risk? Robinson says that a tradeable low for the U.S. Dollar has been established at the 100.50 price. There have been retracements in commodities like corn, soybeans, and copper. Did the regional banking crisis in March 2023 contribute to the low in the U.S. Dollar?

Virgin Galactic (SPCE) is launching its first-ever commercial space flight on June 29. It will livestream the event at 11AM ET. Caroline Woods joins the program to break down the story and stock's reaction spike. Virgin Galactic says it will also use the mission to conduct science experiments. Its next flight is expected to launch in early August.

The crude oil price has changed little despite the political turmoil in Russia. David Williams from PageTrader says that since November 2022, any monthly crude oil price closes below $75 would indicate a continued decline to $58 or lower for the second half of 2023. Will crude oil close above $76 or will the commodity need to reach $60 or lower first? Williams also forecasts where the markets may close the year.

Tesla (TSLA) has been downgraded to equal weight from overweight by Morgan Stanley. Renita Young discusses this as the analyst notes that high expectations brought the stock to fair valuation and they still view the stock as a "must own" in an E.V. portfolio. Renita also talks about how Twitter CEO Linda Yaccarino intervened in a Google Cloud payment dispute, as Twitter previously owed more than $20M a month for Google Cloud services. Twitter and Google (GOOGL) are in talks to partner on data sharing.

Weaker services activity is getting a bit of an offset by improving the housing environment, notes Liz Ann Sonders. She discusses the jobless claims for the week of June 17th and what jobless claims indicate about overall employment trends. She talks about pricing in "higher for longer" rates. She mentions that the current July FMOC probabilities sit at 80%/20% for hike/no hike. Powell notes that getting inflation lower will require slowing down the economy to below-trend growth. Liz Ann also suggests that breadth is marginally better, but more work is needed for health backdrop. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

The gold price was down along with the U.S. Dollar after Jerome Powell's commentary. With higher interest rates, should investors hold onto hold that does not pay dividends or interest? Carley Garner says that a good entry point could be the 200-day moving average, which is $1,880 or $1,850 for gold. Investors are looking for alternative assets as cryptocurrencies have lost some of their luster. Is gold an inflation hedge? Garner says no, but that the commodity is a diversifier.

Nvidia (NVDA) is becoming a must-own stock, joining companies like Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL) says David Nelson. He thinks every big company will have to come up with an A.I. initiative within the next year. He also talks Microsoft (MSFT) and the quality of its A.I. work. Tom White also joins the show to walk through example trades on both names: neutral-to-bullish for NVDA, and bullish for MSFT.

Eli Lilly (LLY) is acquiring Dice Therapeutics (DICE). Damien Conover discusses this as LLY is purchasing DICE for $48 per share cash. DICE is a biopharmaceutical company that leverages its proprietary delscape technology platform to develop novel oral therapeutic candidates. The board of directors for both companies have approved the transaction, and the transaction is expected to close in 3Q. Damien talks about the key takeaways from LLY's acquisition of DICE. He then goes over pharma trends to watch. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Baidu (BIDU) has been upgraded to overweight from equal weight at Morgan Stanley. George Tsilis discusses this as Morgan Stanley raised its price target on BIDU to $190 from $160. The analyst notes that BIDU is the most obvious beneficiary of the $7.4T A.I. internet opportunity in China. Morgan Stanley also estimates 31% CAGR in its cloud revenue by 2025. He then demonstrates an example trade using BIDU. The trade type is a call diagonal and the direction is bullish. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Almost all EV components come from China, Consumer Energy Alliance President David Holt points out. He adds that it isn't just components, but raw materials are also largely controlled by China, such as cobalt mining, and that there are environmental and humanitarian issues associated with procuring EV raw materials. He worries that policymakers pushing for EV adoption are not considering supply issues and the infrastructure needed for EV chargers to prevent blackouts and brownouts.

Rivian (RIVN) will use the superchargers that Tesla (TSLA) makes, joining General Motors (GM) & Ford (F). Sylvia Jablonski discusses the story, calling Rivian one of the more interesting EV makers and saying the deal is beneficial for its growth. She notes that Tesla represents 60% of EV charging stations. She says that Tesla's market share will shrink overall in the future, but the EV market will expand massively. Sylvia thinks Tesla's stock could rise in the double-digits in the coming years.

The WSJ reported that Micron (MU) is to invest $600M to expand production at a plant in China. Kim Forrest discusses semiconductor stocks. She talks about how according to Bloomberg, MU is nearing an agreement to invest at least $1B to build a chip packaging plant in India. She also talks about how Intel (INTC) announced a $4.6B investment into test facility in Poland. The new Poland facility is expected to help meet assembly and test capacity by 2027 and will help create around 2K jobs. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Micron (MU) shares are volatile after announcing expansion plans. Jenny Horne discusses this as MU is to invest $600M in a Chinese chip-packing plan. She talks about how MU is eyes a $1B plan for expansion in India. She then goes over how Nvidia (NVDA) hit an all-time high today. Morgan Stanley raised NVDA's price target to $500 from $450. Jenny also compares NVDA to other semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD, Lam Research (LAM), Micron (MU), and Western Digital (WDC). Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Microsoft (MSFT) hit an all-time high Friday on A.I. growth prospects. The finance chief calls A.I. "the fastest-growing $10 billion business in out history." Kevin Green discusses this as JPMorgan touted MSFT for their growth prospects in A.I. JPMorgan raised MSFT's price target to $3500 from $315. MSFT is up 45% year-to-date. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Tesla's (TSLA) price target was raised at RBC Capital to $305 from $212. RBC Capital sees self-driving as a separate business which should offset margin dilution from lower-priced models. Renita Young discusses this as RBC Capital "conservatively" estimates 25% Tesla Robotaxi penetration in the U.S. She also goes over how Wedbush believes that TSLA is on track to his 1.8M unit delivery bogey for the year. She then talks about how Microsoft's (MSFT) price target was raised to $360 from $340 by Mizuho. The analyst says that MSFT "articulated a well-rounded" cyber security platform at its annual cyber security summit. JPMorgan says MSFT is "planting the longer-term seeds" for success in security, teams, powerapps, and A.I. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

Logitech (LOGI) CEO steps down to "pursue other opportunities." Jenny Horne discusses this as Citi downgrades LOGI to neutral from buy, and lowers its price target to $70 from $73. Citi notes its concerns over management's ability to execute the current growth strategy. LOGI's non-executive board member Guy Gecht is to act as interim CEO. Additionally, Needham downgrades Applied Materials (AMAT) to hold from buy, without a price target. Needham tells investors A.I. demand surge is unlikely to have meaningful effect on Foundry/Logic. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.

According to Reuters, Amazon (AMZN) Wed Services is considering A.I. chips from AMD Inc. (AMD). Renita Young discusses this as AMZN's VP notes that "It's something that our teams are working together on." Renita also talks about how Tesla (TSLA) is looking to extend its 13-day win streak, as TSLA has been up over 40% over the last 13 sessions. She also goes over how TSLA is raising prices in the U.S. on its Model Y vehicles. Tune in to find out more about the stock market today.