Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says that using tariffs "is like throwing a grenade as an offensive weapon when you are in a small room. You are much more likely to damage yourself than anybody else," which is why he is expecting the Trump Administration to back away from its heavy demands rather than go into a trade war. Despite being "one Tweet away from a solution," Kelly worries that the economy will suffer damage — particularly if it's not cleared up soon — but he notes that he does believe a recession is in the offing, with the good news being that he thinks that slowdown will be shallow and short-lived, passing by the end of the year. Peter Chung, director of research at Presto Research, a firm that trades digital assets, checks in on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and discusses their strong rebound since taking a nosedive along with the stock market heading into "Liberation Day" and through the subsequent downturn; he discusses how digital assets are being impacted by tariff concerns. Plus Andrew Kohl, portfolio manager for Aberdeen Investments' Total Dynamic Dividend and Global Dynamic Dividend funds, says investors can find strong payouts and good valuations buying foreign dividend-paying stocks, noting that many companies can keep rolling regardless of trade policy outcomes in the coming months. He also names two of his favorite dividend plays for the current market.

Economist Daniel Altman — who publishes the Daniel Altman's High Yield Economics newsletter — says that the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell provided more certainty than the market was expecting on Wednesday by effectively confirming that fighting inflation, rather than unemployment, is Job One. That means interest rates will stay higher for longer, with cuts not occurring until late this year or into 2026. Altman worries about the potential for stagflation and says that the job market may be weaker than the numbers are suggesting, but he does believe the worst-case outcomes can be avoided with appropriate policy decisions. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, says that the soft economic data like consumer confidence suggests that the economy is headed into a big slowdown, but the hard data isn't validating the biggest worries yet. Ripley says fundamentals remain strong, and that there are some plusses — like falling energy prices — that have been overlooked amid the dire headlines. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund that is focused on hedge-fund activity his "ETF of the Week," noting the fund's potential for diversifying the average portfolio and for running against market trends.

Economist Steven Durlauf, director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago, says that the federal budget deficit is the biggest source of the country's trade deficit, meaning politicians have failed "to seriously address the relationship between what the government wishes to do and how much it costs." If politicians can't cut budget deficits and, potentially, raise taxes, Durlauf says, tariffs won't fix the problem, and will cause new troubles. Durlauf sees the tariffs creating a one-time price hike of 2 to 3 percent, he expects unemployment to rise by about 1 percent, and he expects stagflation while the government sorts out tariffs and ultimately settles on lower levels than have been in current headlines. Howard Dvorkin, chairman at Debt.com, talks about how consumers who were already acting stretched are likely to respond to feeling the pinch of tariff-induced price hikes, and whether that will be the thing that gets consumers to stop spending. He has advice on what consumers should do to avoid getting caught in a debt spiral in this environment, and how the market is likely to respond to rate cuts when they happen later this year. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who is facing expenses that require him to sell some securities to raise cash, and he wants to know how to decide the pecking order on which assets get the axe and where in his asset allocation they come from. 

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, says that while the economy is starting to point towards likely outcomes — an economic slowdown that leads to stagflation but likely stops short of recession — the extremes are still possible. That means the outcomes run from a potential trade war to a no-landing scenario until at least 2026. Roach discusses the challenges faced by international economies and markets right now, as well as whether stagflation or recession is worse for consumers. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses what he expects to hear from the Federal Reserve later this week, but also notes that investors who are scared of the current markets can find safe havens in banking products, once again creating CD ladders that can deliver above-inflation returns while also dealing with rate cuts likely to arrive later this year. Plus Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, discusses the end of student-loan relief that has been in place for the last five years, with more than 40 million Americans now facing consequences if they can't repay student loan debt. He talks about what borrowers can do to ease the burden and reduce its impact on their finances.

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., says she expects the housing market to remain sluggish for as mortgage rates remain above 6 percent; while she expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates during the second half of the year, she's not expecting conditions to change much. That said, she noted that First American's Housing Recession Indicator — based on the trends of eight economic variables — is not flashing red, largely because new home sales have remained strong enough to overcome the other headwinds that home builders are facing. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, puts electric-vehicle maker Rivian back in the Danger Zone; the stock first appeared there as an IPO and is way down since, but Trainer questions whether there is any way to hit the brakes on what he sees as a slide that ends near zero. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers' Index, which is an economic buzzkill as it shows continued contraction as buyers are increasingly pessimistic about prospects for the summer and fall. Plus Chuck responds to two listeners concerned with the show's balance and — by revisiting one of last week's guests — provides a reminder that politics and portfolio strategies don't mix well.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says that for all of the tumult and headlines, he still believes the market shows signs that it will still reach 6600 on the Standard & Poor's 500, the level he was expecting at the start of the year. That's up by more than 15 percent from current levels. Johnson acknowledges that the voyage will remain more "noisy" than he expected, but he says conditions "are more normal than many people realize." As a result, he's almost fully invested, counting on making money by climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. Danielle Poli, portfolio manager at Oaktree Capital Management, says the credit market is delivering returns that are close to the historic levels of equities, but says the current set-up is reminiscent of times in the early 2000s when credit "smoked" equities. With high-yield bonds earning around 8 percent and private credit showing significant demand, Poli says that while credit can be "a great place to hide out," investors can expect even more from it now. Poli says that credit can be more than just "a great place to hide out;" in talking with corporate executives, Poli says she now expects a slower economic environment, with the potential for higher inflation from tariffs, creating the kind of environment where "you're going to want to be in credit over equities." Plus Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the group's latest survey of investor sentiment is showing numbers "that you'd expect to see if there's a bad bull market," with uncertainty being priced into the market and into investor expectations. He also discusses an AAII Journal article highlighting the changing ways that investors are using cash in their portfolios.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, returns to Money Life today as the firm introduces the RSM US Recession Monitor — a comprehensive scorecard relying on more than 20 indicators to track the health of the economy — which is showing a 55 percent chance of recession, a danger level that Brusuelas says will go higher if current tariff and trade policies continue as announced. While he is optimistic about potential rollbacks in those policies, Brusuelas says the current conditions would be considered recessionary regardless of the party in power in Washington, but are exacerbated more by policy than they have been during times of recession triggers like an oil price shock.Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings a Pimco actively managed multi-sector bond fund back as the ETF of the Week, noting that the fund is a strong diversifier and can goose yields now, at a time when investors are looking for safe havens but might want bond managers to manage into the rapidly changing market conditions. Plus, more from the archives with investment legend Jack Bogle — who founded Vanguard 50 years ago today and who appeared on the show a decade ago talking about the firm's 40th anniversary; today's excerpts, culled from three different appearances on the show, include comments from 2016 on the first Trump Administration that stand up particularly well against the test of time.

Money Life celebrates it's 13th anniversary by looking at the past, the present and the eternal, digging into the archives for excerpts from a 2018 conversation with Jack Bogle that remains completely relevant — and perhaps moreso — despite the passage of time. Bogle — the founder of The Vanguard Group — who popularized index investing and was routinely called "Saint Jack" in the investing world, talks about how he invested and built his personal portfolio, saying that he favored the simple and domestic over the complicated and worldwide, but also talks about the evolution of ETFs, changes to the way people perceive indexing and more. With the show now in its 13th year, Chuck also gives a little 'bar mitzvah speech,' discussing the lessons he says are most important and prevalent from 13 years, over 3,250 shows and more than 10,000 interviews. Plus Nancy Prial, co-chief executive office and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.

Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while gold took a big stumble last week, he doesn't believe the strong rally to start the year is over. Further, with gold trading near record highs but oil trading in the range of $70 a barrel, he believes investors will find greater opportunity in gold-mining stocks than in physical gold itself. Coupled with demand behind heightened heightened because gold is historically an asset for uncertain times, and Millman said that while he thinks there may be more volatility moving forward, gold will continue to trend higher. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs. puts PPE maker Lakeland Industries in the Danger Zone, noting that these times are much different from when the stock was flying high during the pandemic. Ryan Butler,  senior editor at Covers.com, talks about the early impact that tariffs have had on the gaming industry and what he's watching for as trade policies play out, plus Chuck looks at the first 100 days of Trump Administration 2.0 and discusses how the numbers have played out on everything from inflation and consumer prices to the personal savings rate, home and auto sales, mortgage and car loans and more.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors looking at current market turmoil and the potential for stagflation and an economic recession should remember that "Doing nothing is something," making an active decision to continue with current allocations, which she says is appropriate for anyone who felt balanced when they entered 2025. Fernandez expects current tariff policies to drive inflation above the 4 percent level before it cools, creating a stagflationary environment, bringing some hard times that she thinks won't last long once the economy and the market have some long-term clarity and stability on policy changes. because the economy was so strong entering the year. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, discusses the trading opportunities in closed-end funds created by the market's volatility, but he also notes that in spite of the tumult, his prediction for fixed-income closed-end fund returns this year "is still double digits, it's just going to be different." Plus Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group brings his "modern value" investing approach to the Market Call.

Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call, but notes that mixing the numbers — the quantitative approach — with the art of active management leads him to want a well-diversified portfolio filled with well-known names that stay true to his core investment believes, the kind of thing he would be happy to ride with until there is more certainty and confidence in the market. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, puts a different spin on that, noting that amid the current uncertainty investors may want to make a long-term allocation to ultra-safe funds, which is why he makes a floating rate Treasury fund his ETF of the Week. Plus Chuck talks about the wild day that gold had on Wednesday and what lessons investors can take from it, and Frederick Blue of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management discusses "Guidance for Professional Athletes: Turning Years into Decades," a new white paper the firm produced that discusses how people can turn short-term windfalls into something more permanent and lasting.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that he believes the potential recession that the United States economy could be facing is likely to be "a run-of-the-mill, early '90s type of recession" that stays shallow and lasts a few quarters, but he acknowledges that the signs are murky and that the longer uncertainty around trade and other policies last, the deeper and longer a likely recession becomes. Ceci says that investors should remember that the market is up way more than it is down, which means investors need to avoid panic and keep their eyes on the long-term gains rather than making changes based on incomplete information now. In The Book Interview, author Shannah Game, discusses “Unraveling Your Relationship With Money: Fix Your Money Trauma So You Can Live an Abundant Life,” which explores how the actions and attitudes people pick up over their lives — but particularly when they're young — influence a lifetime of decisions and attitudes around money. Plus, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management — manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value fund — brings his deep-value approach to the Market Call.

Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that with so much investor optimism wiped away by the rough start to 2025, the opportunity for growth now looks better than it did at the start of the year. "Six months from now, I would say there's a good chance the market will be higher," Slimmon says in summing up a conversation that compares current conditions to Covid times, that discusses why looking for defensive names now is bad advice and much more. Ironically, his interview airs directly before Simon Lack of SL Advisors — publishers of the American Energy Independence Index — talks about defensive midstream energy plays in the Market Call. Plus, Jerry Avorn discusses his new book, "Rethinking Medications: Truth, Power, and the Drugs You Take," which is out today.

Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covoid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that heightened volatility is likely here to stay as the market sorts out rapidly changing current conditions -- and says current market shocks are reminiscent in some ways of the Covid crisis or the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. He says that the current dichotomy between quantifiable potential outcomes from policies that have been announced and the non-quantifiable future and how conditions may change, making it a good time for low-volatility equity strategies. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns to the show with three closed-end funds that he thinks can help investors weather the market's storms, giving his "trifecta analysis" — covering data points on discounts, yields and net asset values — on why he thinks the funds are worth a close look now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks for some safety and certainty amid the market noise, picking a classic dividend-driven fund as his ETF of the Week, and Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — the original Market Call guest — returns to the show to discuss how his news-driven process is dealing with the headlines now.

Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says "We are in the midst of a stagflationary environment that's likely to last three to six months," with the question remaining whether a recession will follow. He does now think that recession is likely, though changes to trade and monetary policy could stave it off. Bory also discusses how and why the bond market and Treasury yields are having more impact on the government's tariff policy than the wide stock market swings that have been capturing the headlines. Alex Coffey, senior trading strategist at Charles Schwab, says that current levels of volatility make it so that he's not looking out long-term, focusing instead "on, maybe, where we are going to be next week," noting that the wide daily trading ranges of the market — where there are sometimes a month or quarter's worth of movement in a single day — render long-term views too muddy to be valuable. In the Market Call, Jonathan Smucker, portfolio manager at Marietta Investment Partners, says his top-down macro view suggests investors need to "buckle up" for a lengthy trade and tariff war, but then he talks about the temes and the bottoms-up fundamentals that are pointing him to invest in certain industries now.

Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, seems to only be half joking when he says investors might want to be bullish right now just because they would be the last bull standing, but he also notes that long-term investors, in conditions like these, must bite their lip and keep buying equities. That said, he thinks some of those equities should be international, and he particularly likes Japan right now. In an extended Danger Zone segment, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, taslks about how the market's turmoil is putting an end to the momentum trades which made it harder for him and his analysts to find a catalyst that would trigger the troubles in a Danger Zone stock; he says that more Danger Zone picks are likely to realize their downside potential quickly now, and then singles out Tesla — which his firm has had in the Danger Zone for years as it kept growing to new heights — in line for a haircut of as much as 80 percent from already falling levels. In the Market Call, Bryan Lee, chief investment officer at Blue Zone Wealth Advisors, discusses "opportunistic value" and whether the current market conditions have created those opportunities yet.

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that investors should allow the market to settle down and they regain solid footing with their investments, but should use current nervousness and anxiety as a guide on how to remake their portfolio to be more stable regardless of conditions. Frick says he felt that the market was getting scary at the beginning of the year, so he reduced his exposure to stocks and started to prepare against sequence-of-returns risk because he is nearing retirement, and he says investors need to be much more focused on their internal risk-tolerance measures than anything that the market is doing to get through current conditions and plot for a future that is different economically, and that may not come back to the norms of recent years until there is more clarity on policies. Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the stock market had gotten "extremely oversold" before the government's tariff announcements were made, which made for a perfect set-up for a big market decline. While the cause of the downturn is unusual, Kahn says that the technicals are not, and that investors should be looking for confirmation that the tide is turning; even then, however, he warned that investors should be cautious buyers, at least until tariff plans are more clear and certain. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — checks in on how closed-end funds have performed since the tariff announcement, particularly bond funds that have seen yields changing as part of the fixed-income market's response to the news; he discusses discount levels, strategies that closed-end fund investors might use now, and how the current situation compares in closed-end funds to the market decline around the Covid pandemic.

Megan Horneman, chief investment officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, says that despite the painful volatility and the rising potential for recession, investors should be looking for opportunities, particularly in the areas that have been most hurt by recent action as the market has been. She notes that global small and mid-cap stocks are in bear-market territory, pricing in a recession and the impacts of inflation and more. pricing in recession. "The times when everybody is running for the doors, that is when you want to go in," Horneman says. She's not racing into the market and urges patience, but she believes investors can be aggressive now and be happy long-term with the results. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a commodity fund for his ETF of the Week, looking for a portfolio diversifier that will not move in sync with the market. Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management — portfolio manager for the Zacks Earnings Consistent Portfolio — talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck looks at what was, for most investors, the largest single day's gain they have seen in their lifetimes and how to use the recent stress and relief as a means of gauging if your portfolio is properly positioned for your needs and mindset now.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says that unless an off-ramp to current government policies can be found, he expects a recession that is starting now and likely to last nine months. He has raised his likelihood of recession to 55 percent, but said you can see already a pullback in orders, which in turn will lead to a price shock, and then pullbacks in spending and ultimately labor that will complete the slowdown process. Brusuelas expects a 1 to 1.5 percent spike in inflation in the next two to three months, which would push inflation above 4 percent, yet he does not foresee the Federal Reserve acting quickly to mitigate the downturn. "They're going to be a bit late," Brusuelas says, in forecasting the first rate cuts no sooner than June. Also on the show, Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad's Utility Investor and The REIT Sheet talks dividend investing and how it is being impacted by the market moving away from all-time highs and staring down bear-market conditions.

JoAnne Bianco, partner and portfolio manager at BondBloxx, says that investors should be re-assessing risk and deciding if the market's current moves are an over-reaction that could rebound or something more sticky, and she notes that some fixed-income assets have been the best performers this year. She notes that long-duration Treasuries and U.S. corporate bonds have been stellar and seem to have priced in a lot of the turmoil, and she expects those asset classes to be less volatile than the market generally. She also likes the big payouts — without heightened default rates — in high-yield bonds now.  Andrew Guillette discusses the latest U.S. investor survey from Broadridge Financial Solutions, which showed that one of the best ways to get better performance is to add some individual stocks to a balanced portfolio of mutual funds, with the single names helping to boost gains and put a strategy over the top. Plus Kirk McDonald, portfolio manager at Argent Capital, makes his debut in the Market Call talking mid-cap stocks, and Chuck talks about the moves he thinks nervous investors can make now that give them more control without blowing up their portfolio based on short-term market moves.

Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, talks about actionable steps investors can take now — and that she has taken for her clients — to mitigate anxiety amid the uncertainty of the current US stock market. Specifically, Spath is diversifying into investments that have a negative or no correlation to the U.S. market, buying gold, long-duration Treasury bonds and stepping up exposure to Germany and Japan; despite the turmoil, she still expects the stock market to finish 2025 with a solid year and reasonable gains. Chuck discusses what he took away from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech last week at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference, and also lays out some key points that he believes will help investors get through what should be a very rough week. Plus Jillian Berman, a reporter and editor at MarketWatch, discusses her new book, "Sunk Costs: Who's to Blame for the Nation's Broken Student Loan System and How to Fix It."

Duane McAllister, senior portfolio manager at Baird, says investors are right to be leaning into the fixed-income market as a safe haven amid current market turmoil, noting that the relationship between stocks and bonds has normalized, unlike 2022 when bonds moved in sync with stocks and investors lost money in both. With yields relatively high and holding steady, McAllister said bonds are proving their value as safe, stable holdings. Kerry Sette, head of consumer insights and research at Voya Financial, discusses the firm's latest consumer survey which showed that there is a growing fear that the economy and inflation will have a major impact on the ability to accumulate retirement savings. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers audience questions on finding the best closed-end funds, spotting pending distribution cuts and more, and in any sector, and Peter Tuz, president of Chase investment Counsel, talks growth stocks in the Market Call.

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says the market's long-running bull market is "on thin ice right now," from a technical standpoint, having fallen below its 200-day moving average, leaving the market "at a really interesting juncture," and making him defensive, building more cash, loading up on utilities and safe sectors and waiting to see how it plays out. Samuelson says that if the market breaks down -- with a decline accelerated by reactions to government tariff policies -- it could drop another 15 percent or more, putting the market squarely into correction territory off of its February highs. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, is more interested in the recent rally in international stocks than he is in the possible impact of tariffs on the markets there, and picks a T. Rowe Price international fund as the ETF of the Week. Susan Fahy discusses the latest Credit Gauge from VantageScore, which shows that the resumption of student loan payments has negatively impacted credit scores and will drop them further, as other indicators suggest consumer finances are slowly declining. Plus Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, brings his "beat and replace" approach for stocks to the Market Call, and Chuck gives his initial take on what Wednesday's tariff news means for consumers.

Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer for multi-asset strategies at Research Affiliates, says that despite the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and geo-politics, international markets remain attractive and with a better valuation than domestic markets. But those global markets may also get a boost from the Trump Administration's plans to weaken the dollar — a dollar that Masturzo says his firm believes is currently 25 percent overvalued — so he emphasized that investors should not "fight the Treasury," and should instead follow its actions to more international exposure in their portfolios. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which shows that forward-looking demand for beer is contracting, a sign that consumers may be looking to pull back on spending. Plus, Taylor Krystkowiak, vice president and investment strategist for the Themes ETFs discusses some popular investment themes — and the stocks that best represent them — in the Money Life Market Call.

Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been in an oversold rally and is currently correcting as it comes out of that. He sees deteriorating breadth but still thinks this could be what he called "a healthy correction." McMillan says if the Standard & Poor's 500 can't hold the 5400 level, he would expect it to drop to 5000, a move big enough to put the stock market into bear market territory, a decline of 20 percent from market peaks in February. Wade Pfau, professor of retirement income at The American College of Financial Services, returns to the show to discuss updates to "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success,” and discusses the trend of investors trading some potential returns for more certainty, using annuities and reverse mortgages to secure income. Plus Wayne Thorp, head of research and analysis products for the American Association of Individual Investors — who created AAII's growth investing strategy — talks growth investing amid declining growth in the Money Life Market Call.

Harvard University economist Jason Furman — the former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers — says that the tricky thing in forecasting now is high levels of uncertainty, particularly in terms of how much business and consumers pull back based on current conditions; if there's a recession, he says it will be spending cutbacks that trigger it. Furman notes that the average tariff rate is now back to levels from the 1940s, and while he says he'd be shocked if it triggers a Great Depression, it could trigger a recession where the loss of economic growth and higher inflation results in the effective loss of about $2,000 per family. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs puts CoreWeave — Wall Street's latest big IPO — into the Danger Zone right out of the box, and Barry Ritholtz of Ritholtz Wealth Management returns to the show to discuss his new book, "How NOT to Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth — And How to Avoid Them."   

Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts says that the stock market at current levels is unattractive, because "the upside potential is now way more limited than the downside risk," and he expects that risk to be realized in a decline that could drop the market by another 5 percent or more. De Kempenaer says this dip won't feel much like a buying opportunity, because the market will need several months or quarters to finish a rotation and find a new base to build on. He notes that investors have been gravitating toward bonds, another sign that they are concerned about the market's ability to keep generating gains. Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income fund, says high-yield bonds have been improving in quality, despite the higher interest rates of the last few years, and he expects the trend to continue, to the point where the market for junk bonds now looks more like what investment-grade bonds used to be. Plus, Eric Purington, portfolio manager for the Aberdeen Global Income Infrastructure fund, discusses the potential of middle-market infrastructure plays, and MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses his latest piece, which suggests that the Trump Administration needs a weaker dollar to make its plans work, and that a recession may be a required part of that calculus behind tariffs and inflation-fighting strategies.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses how the site's latest survey shows that Americans are tapping into emergency savings increasingly to pay ordinary expenses. He talks about the dangerous spiral that a growing number of consumers are on, as they begin to exhaust emergency funds and have to rely increasingly on credit cards, currently carrying record-high interest rates. Rob Nestor, president of Turing Technologies, discusses the evolution of "high-conviction investing," and how focusing on the investment ideas that money managers most believe in can deliver results that beat indexes. In the Market Call, Greg Halter, director of research at Carnegie Investment Counsel, makes his debut on the show, talking stocks.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, chief strategist at QI Research, says that she remains concerned about the economy in the short run because Congress isn't being "brisk and efficient" in delivering on the promise of de-regulation and lower taxes. Since those potential policy benefits haven't shown up — but the uncertainty of tariff policies has — she is expecting a bumpy economic road ahead. She does say that inflation may be having less impact than consumers say it is having, but she notes that consumer fears are real and are contributing to her feelings that the economy will struggle to regain momentum. Speaking of tariffs, Chuck answers a listener's question on how they are supposed to work and why he has been saying the dollar must be weaker for them to achieve President Trump's stated goal. Plus, Ted Rossmandiscusses a Bankrate.com survey which showed that Americans with checking accounts have maintained the same account for an average of 19 years, which may mean they are missing out on opportunities to get more from their most basic bank accounts.

Scott Brown of Brown Technical Insights says that the market traditionally is weak during the first quarter of a new presidential cycle, but he notes that the third week of March is also when that tends to change and the market reaches the bottom of that cycle. He says we're still in a secular bull market, with April and May historically providing some runway. As a result, Brown expects a bounce and says "It's not the time to be turning negative now," though he notes that if the seasonal rally fails to materialize, then conditions could be weaker than expected. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says that interest-rate cuts may, again, not have their traditional impact on stock and bond markets, and veteran financial journalist Allan Sloan "has fun with numbers," talking about the market's recent decline in numbers — rather than points on a stock index — and noting that it amounted to roughly $6.5 trillion until Monday's market rebound.  

Dhruv Nagrath, director of fixed-income strategy at BlackRock, says that it's "easy to make a healthy return in your fixed income without taking too much risk," so while there are opportunities out the risk scale all the way out to high-yield and junk bonds, he notes that investors can stay safe and come away happy with their gains. Nagrath discusses what he expects to happen to bond yields when the Federal reserve starts cutting rates, how bonds are likely to perform relative to stocks in that environment, and where he is finding the right mix of risk and reward. Veteran financial journalist Herb Greenberg discusses "Stock Promotions Gone Wild," a recent piece he wrote after seeing company presidents hyping their shares in ways that, historically, executives have avoided, and why such promotions may be a red flag. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Wayfair back in "The Danger Zone," noting that the stock -- which he previously labeled a "zombie stock" -- remains in among the walking dead, likely on the way to losing nearly all of its value.

The show wraps up interviews taped at FutureProof Citywide in Miami today, with Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners noting that the Trump Administration is not disturbed with the recent price action on the stock market, because they know that the economy must cool off to get lower interest rates and energy prices. Moreover, he notes that a prolonged tariff battle will impact earnings growth, which will be the key determinant of what the market can achieve this year. Tony Rodriguez, head of fixed income strategy at Nuveen, expects the Federal Reserve to make two interest-rate cuts this year and talks about the asset classes that will benefit the most from them. Barry Martin — the manager of Shelton Equity Income — discusses where investors can find strong income now, using options as an overlay to goose returns. The show also features interviews with Laura Lutton, global head of manager research at Morningstar, and Brad Smithy, head of wealth management at Elevation Point.

Caleb Silver, editor-in-chief at Investopedia, says that uncertainty is kryptonite to investors and he worries that the longer current worries about tariffs, inflation, recession and more drag out, the more people could stop believing in long-term investing and stop their "relentless bid" where they put money into retirement plans with every paycheck. The market will keep going — perhaps slower, and possibly with a bear market and a possible recession — so long as the money keeps flowing, and he sees that stemming the tide of any declines. That is one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach this week; Chuck also chats about the markets with Don Calcagni, chief investment officer at Mercer Advisors, and Tim Holland, chief investment officer at Orion. Plus, after Todd Rosenbluth, the head of researchat VettaFi makes a Vanguard quality-based fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck finds longtime friend and former Money Life regular Tom Lydon at the conference and they catch up on other developments in the ETF world.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says she is minimizing geopolitical inputs right now because it's impossible to make investment decisions around uncertainty. She says it's particularly important right now to focus on fundamentals and what's real — "We're investing in companies not countries" — and she is not buying the long-term hype on Europe because she says the recent rally doesn't have a strong foundation to stand on. That's one of four interviews from FutureProof Citywide in Miami Beach for today's show. Chuck also talks emerging markets and global income investing with Dan Shaykevich, head of Multi Sector Strategy, co-head of Emerging Markets and Sovereign Debt with Vanguard, discusses the evolution  of new financial products with Alec Davis, head of enterprise reporting at Pitchbook, and covers the stock market and being a patient investor in impatient times with Eddy Elfenbein, editor of the Crossing Wall Street blog and portfolio strategist for the AdvisorShares Focused Equity ETF.

Money Life goes to the beach for the rest of this week, with Chuck conducting interviews at FutureProof Citywide, a festival for financial advisers held on Miami Beach. His first conversation at the event was with veteran CNBC personality Ron Insana, now the head of wealth at QuantumStreet AI, who says investors are right to be concerned about current levels of valuation and also geo-political policy uncertainty, but who doesn't see market issues extending to a level of a crash or crisis. The show also features Stephen Tuckwood, chief investment officer at Modern Wealth Management, leading financial adviser Michael Kitces, the head of planning strategy at Focus Wealth Partners, and Jeff Garden, chief investment officer at Lido Advisors, who makes a notable case against investing internationally — particularly in Europe — as a way to diversify a portfolio now.

Jonathan Treussard, founder of Treussard Capital Management, says that the current market decline is not a real surprise, but the whipsaw of emotions — moving from a can't-miss certainty that things were going up to hand-wringing today — is taking investors by storm, making them want to take actions even when the best strategy is to ride this out. "Success grows in silence, and the market is really attuned to noise," Treussard says. "Your job is to sit there with peace in your heart and focus on the silence." Kate Byrne, head of Vanguard Cash Plus discusses a recent Vanguard Consumer Savings Survey which showed that six in 10 Americans did not completely understand how interest rates can impact the money they save, which is why nearly half of them who are currently saving are settling for accounts earning less than 3 percent interest. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Trupanion back in the Danger Zone, noting that the pet-insurance company is barking louder as a dog despite recent pullbacks after an earnings miss.

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market swings have had increasing impact on economic growth and the rate of inflation in recent years — "Price is a fundamental," he says — and that means the current downturn in the stock market could deliver a recession. At the same time, if the market moves from current correction-levels to bear-market levels, he expects inflation to then ease up and to help drive a potential recovery. Charles Rotblut, editor at AAII Journal, discusses the latest investor sentiment survey from the American Association of Individual Investors, which just hit its third straight week with bearish sentiment above 57 percent and bullish sentiment below 20 percent, a three-week stretch in both numbers that has never been seen since the survey started in 1987. While sentiment levels didn't hit these levels during events like the Dot-com Crash and the Great Financial Crisis, Rotblut noted that when sentiment reaches bearish extremes, the market typically has rebounded in six months, which bodes well for a recovery before year's end. In the NAVigator segment, Roxanna Islam, head of sector and industry research at VettaFi, discusses the Invesco Closed-End Fund Income Composite ETF — which she considers the "Standard & Poor's 500 for closed-end funds" — as it celebrates its 15th anniversary and crosses $800 million in assets.

Shelly Antoniewicz, chief economist at the Investment Company Institute, says that consumers currently expect that they will wind up paying about half of the costs added to goods by tariffs — meaning they will pay 10 percent more when an item is facing a 20 percent tariff — and she says that a cutback in consumer spending would dramatically change the economic picture, since it makes up about two-thirds of GDP. Along with declining consumer sentiment, Antoniewicz says that investors are reacting to current market performance and heading toward money-market and bond funds, waiting before they are willing to buy into the dips. Speaking of concerned and conservative investors, Todd Rosenbluth — head of research at VettaFi — picks an ultra-short and ultra-safe bond fund as his "ETF of the Week," and Chuck recounts three conversations this week with friends who are dealing with the market differently as they struggle to find some peace of mind amid current concerns. Plus, Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey which showed that Americans can agree on something, namely that tipping is wildly out of control.

Kristina Hooper, chief global market strategist at Invesco, says she is still holding to the optimistic scenarios she had entering 2025, but she acknowledges that the potential for a recession grows by the day, given tariffs, a potential resurgence in inflation, fiscal pressures resulting in cuts to government spending and more. Still, Hooper's base case remains positive and she warns that investors can't afford to get spooked out of the market by short-term temporary declines. Jordan Grumet of the "Earn and Invest" podcast, discusses his new book,  "The Purpose Code: How to Unlock Meaning, Maximize Happiness and Leave a Lasting Legacy," plus Aaron Schumm of Vestwell talks about how consumers and workers can improve their savings — and American could make a dent into its savings crisis — by using new platforms that allow money to be set aside not just into retirement plans but for college savings, emergency funds, health care and more.  

Brian Nick, head of portfolio strategy at NewEdge Wealth, says nervous investors should not be rooting for interest rate cuts, because they would be cheering for the economy to get worse, and the stock market would likely suffer as that happens. On the current suffering, Nick is not cowed by the last few days, noting that the "abrupt switch" in markt mentality is not the end of the bull market and economic growth cycles. He says the chances of recession are up, but that investors should diversify their way through the bumpy road ahead. Gregory Harmon, founder and president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says the market remains in "a really positive range," and the current consolidation isn't an issue until or unless the market starts making lower lows, signalling a potentially more significant and lasting change of direction. Cody Barbo, chief executive officer at TrustandWill.com discusses the site's 2025 Estate Planning Report, which showed that 20 percent of Americans have "completely abandoned traditional American Dream ideals."

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says the economy remains on a solid growth path, generating new job creation and steady unemployment that should prop the economy up against trouble. That said, she acknowledges that consumers are scared and may be starting to hesitate, which could quickly change the circumstances. Garretty notes that the stock market is pricing in what it expects to see from the economy in roughly nine months, and concerns over tariffs and geopolitical issues are leading people to want to make knee-jerk reactions before the market has a chance to really digest and sort out what lies ahead. Those reactionary impulses are also showing up in consumers, as witnessed by John Egan, who discusses a new study from Creditcards.com, which shows that nearly 20 percent of Americans are "doom spending" in order to get ahead of tariff-driven price increases. Chuck takes a listener's question about whether current conditions really do represent a buying opportunity, and David Trainer of New Constructs puts a mid-cap fund that gets a four-star rating from morningstar in The Danger Zone.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research says that he expects the stock market to back off of its current "pretty elevated" levels as it prices in a discount for uncertainty. "Whether or not you think in the long run that changes by the Administration are good or bad, while we go through them means that probably valuations need to be lower," Clissold says, noting that the discount will be accompanied by choppier market action, heightened volatility and more pullbacks and corrections. Further, Clissold notes that the situation could last until the economy digests a workforce shift as public workers move into jobs in the private sector and consumers curb spending during the adjustment period. D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says the current cycle may be changing, and he is watching whether the Standard & Poor's 500 can stay above its 200-day moving average, which it has been close to breaking the last few days. Barton says the pullback could reach the point of being a correction -- a decline of 10 percent or more -- if the trend line is broken, but he thinks the market needs to take a breather and re-gather itself before it can resume making real progress. Kimberly Flynn, president of XA Investments, says healthy borrowers and minimal defaults make the loan space attractive, with concerns over tariffs and Federal Reserve policies leading to more volatility but also new opportunities.

Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, says that the cheap global stock markets are up 15 percent already this year, where the United States has been flat — "if you heard about geo-politics, you'd assume the opposite" — and he says that investors should be moving away from domestic issues to buy more global companies. Faber promises — and delivers — "a warning, an idea, a curiosity and something you've never heard of before" in today's Big Interview, and also gives his take on how to approach current events, asset allocation, cryptocurrencies and more. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also goes global on this show, looking to China internet stocks — one of those booming global markets — vettafi.com with his ETF of the Week. Plus Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stock investing in the Market Call.  

Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset at Janus Henderson Investors, says the stock market entered the year in "goldilocks mode," at all-time highs and with positive conditions, but the late-cycle economy is facing policy drag and "a lot of those risks have teeth," which is bringing recession back into the conversation. Hetts adds that with a market near record levels, it makes the current rally feel fragile, as if it's easier to move down than keep climbing, and he says there may be a correction as the market re-assesses its current standing, which could create new buying opportunities. Allison Hadley discusses a Howdy.com survey showing that many Americans would leave their job if it weren't for the need for their current health insurance coverage. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about fairness in setting up gift and legacy accounts for grandchildren, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Eric Stein, head of investments and chief investment officer for fixed income at Voya Investment Management, says that the "sequencing of policies" is impacting the market now, noting that if the Trump Administration had done supply-side reforms and de-regulation first, it would boost the market, but instead the first moves have been tariffs, which has made the market outlook tougher. Still, he's expecting a modestly positive year, buoyed in part by the market's "self-correcting mechanism" that will react to tariff policy and impact how and how long those policies stay in place. Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research and the Intermarket Review says that the primary trend he's seeing in the market remains bullish, and the signs that we are nearing a market top are balanced by indicators showing there's more room to run. David Callaway, founder of Callaway Climate Insights, discusses how energy stocks could be set up for a fall; they have boomed as an AI-adjacent play because artificial intelligence requires high levels of power, but got hammered when the market was disappointed in the results at companies like Nvidia. Plus Andrew Graham of Jackson Square Capital talks stock investing in the Market Call.

Greg Daco, chief economist at EY, says the economic numbers are strong, but the high level of uncertainty has it nearing a tipping point and making recession more likely. He sees the potential for consumer issues and a recession risking, and says there is a real -- but modest -- chance of stagflation putting the Federal Reserve in a real policy bind. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, talks about what other economists are thinking, as she highlights the March Economic Policy Survey, released today by the National Association for Business Economics.  David Trainer of New Constructs revisits Carvana, a stock which has defied gravity for over a year; he says it can't shake its status as a zombie stock headed for a massive decline. John Barr, portfolio manager for the Needham Funds, discusses his aggressive growth strategy.  

Finance professor Meir Statman, author of "A Wealth of Well-Being: A Holistic Approach to Behavioral Finance," says the headlines and geopolitical risks that have investors and consumers scrambling for a plan of action are not that different from past times, and that taking a deep breath and calming down will be a lot better than altering financial plans or stocking up and filling "that refrigerator you keep in the garage." Statman acknowledges that inflation is scary — particularly because it removes a measure of certainty from pricing — but says that acting scared has never served investors and consumers well. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, is back and answering more listener questions, this time on business-development companies, highlighting how they are different from closed-end funds but should be included with closed-end funds for portfolio-construction purposes. In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners talks about how he finds "underappreciated quality companies."

Veteran personal finance journalist John Waggoner stops by to answer the questions that experts are getting at the grocery store, the doctor's office or anywhere someone can inquire about whether current events — and fears over the potential future of tariffs, Social Security, Medicare and more — need to be addressed by financial moves now. Waggoner notes that people who crave some certainty and comfort can make moves — like considering annuities to bolster retirement income — but he suggested keeping changes to a minimum and avoiding knee-jerk reactions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks at bitcoin mining — and compares the investment allocation possibilities of the crypto world versus gold and gold miners — with his pick for "ETF of the Week." Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares talks about disruptive stocks — his firm runs the Nasdaq Select Disruptors ETF — and business-development companies in the Market Call.