Money Life with Chuck Jaffe is leading the way in business and financial radio. The Money Life Podcast is a daily personal finance talk show, Monday through Friday sorting through the financial clutter every day to bring you the information you need to lead the MoneyLife.
Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says that while he expects the stock market to challenge its support levels and take a small step back soon, he expects "a buying opportunity between now and year-end" because the market cycle has plenty of strength -- particularly in industrial and energy stocks -- to keep the bullish phase running. Still, he expects a recession early in 2024, but says the market is prepared for a downturn that he expects to be short and shallow. In the Book Interview, Princeton University history professor Michael Blaakman discusses America's first market mania, the land rush of Revolutionary times and how it dictated much of what the country has seen and done since. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns for another episode of "Find Me The Money," talking about protecting your finances post-divorce, making a clean break on joint accounts, updating beneficiaries to retirement accounts and insurance policies and stopping an ex from accessing new credit in your name. In the Market Call, Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks and has five potential buys during the "Quick and Dirty" portion of the interview.
David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts an initial public offering into the Danger Zone for the third straight week, always jumping on deals he considers overpriced before they are even out of the box. Trainer says that this week's pick, Birkenstock, is another company that can show profits, but where the private-equity backers are pushing to get way more for those profits than the market is paying for the competition. Trainer's last two picks -- ARM Holdings and Maplebear (Instacart) -- have dropped below their IPO pop prices almost immediately after coming out. In The Big Interview, Stash Graham of Graham Capital Wealth Management, says that"there is pain ahead" for the economy; he says the business cycle starting to shift in ways where the higher cost of capital caused by increased interest rates and the struggles consumers and businesses are seeing due to lingering inflation are going to hit home and create serious market problems. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses Bankrate.com's latest study, which shows that many consumers are responding to current conditions by starting their holiday shopping now, and James Abate, manager of the five-star Centre American Select Equity Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's message this week was largely positive -- suggesting we're "in a mode to get a soft landing" -- but the market seized on confusing parts where he suggested that the central bank is not afraid of going through some pain. Garretty notes that there are already plenty of "pain points" already visible in the economy, but that it hasn't created real trouble yet. The question, she noted, is whether that pain will be felt down the line. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors talks about how muni-bond closed-end funds have seen discounts widening well past historic norms -- but notes that investors may want to be cautious before diving in -- Chuck answers a listener's question on unit investment trusts, and Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that technical indicators suggest the market will challenge support levels -- taking a small setback -- before they can start to make the next leg up.
Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, says the Federal Reserve is putting "arrows in the quiver" to deal with a recession if it happens, but that the central bankers have signaled that "if there's a rough landing ... they won't be so quick to react to it." Roberts says the economy remains strong -- and that the U.S. is still the best market in the world -- despite the market acting like it's in a correction. He sees the narrow, large-cap rally continuing for the foreseeable future. Plus, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks up on the quality theme he discussed a week ago, but turns in the small-cap direction with his "ETF of the Week," Chuck goes off the news with a consumer story that impacts every adult in the country -- and which serves as a reminder to take care of your financial chores -- and Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet, returns to the Market Call to discuss exchange-traded funds.
Sir Angus Deaton, a Nobel Prize winning economist and Princeton University professor, says that economic policy for the last few decades has paid little to no attention to "the negative consequences of trade, of disruption, of people losing their jobs to automation to globalization and what-not" and he thinks the Inflation Reduction Act has started to reverse that, though the progress maybe short-lived given current politics. Deaton weighs in on the UAW strike and the importance of unions and what he sees as the best possible outcome not only of the current situation but in the ways Corporate America and workers will deal with technological improvements from here. Also on the show, Miles Tullo discusses the latest research from J.D. Power on consumer preferences at the point of sale; debit cards are the not-surprising winner, but alternative methods -- including buy-now-pay-later choices -- are increasingly popular. Plus, portfolio manager Andrey Kutusov of Seven Canyons Advisors, talks international growth investing in the Market Call.
Investigative reporter Zeke Faux, author of “Number Go Up: Inside Crypto's Wild Rise and Staggering Fall,” discusses his adventures covering the cryptocurrency market, from connecting with Sam Bankman-Fried before the collapse of FTX to attending "ApeFest," convincing his wife to let him spend $20,000 on an NFT as part of his book research and more. He also notes that despite its trading popularity, having crypto used as currency remains a struggle, even in the countries that have tried to adopt its usage. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about digging into the more obscure and esoteric documents -- insurance policies, car titles, estate-planning paperwork and more -- and making a timeline to help uncover forgotten or missing accounts (something Chuck experienced personally in his own case) in the latest installment of "Find Me The Money," and Mike Venuto, chief investment officer at Tidal Financial Group talks ETFs in the Markt Call.
Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners, says that stock prices in emerging markets are depressed -- understandably so -- but he thinks they have been too beaten down, which makes the case for emerging markets as a value play right now. That said, Foster says there is not a strong argument for growth investing in emerging markets now because struggles in China, the hub of the emerging markets, are tamping down the potential for growth in the asset class. Foster notes that China has been decoupling from U.S. markets, and visa versa, which is changing the international markets picture and the outcomes likely based on international politics. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs is back with another IPO that he believes is rotten from the get-go, opening into troubling conditions that will lead to trouble once the market's honeymoon with the new offering is over, and we revisit a recent Marekt Call interview with Stephen Dodson, portfolio manager at The Bretton Fund.
Michael Baron, portfolio manager for the Baron Partners Fund, explains how the fund came to have nearly half of its portfolio in one stock -- Tesla -- and how his confidence in the company may lead for those holdings to become an even bigger portion of the portfolio. Just as importantly, Baron explains how the Tesla example highlights the way active management and good stock picking can still beat the indexes and deliver superior returns. Also on the show, Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, explains that a wave of mostly negative sentiment among traders has the market poised to finish out the year relatively strong, provided it can get through some short-term bumps now, Colin McBurnette of the Angel Oak Funds discussed how the high-rate, high-inflation environment have set up the housing and mortgage market to deliver at a time when headlines suggest that real estate is troubled. Plus, in the Market Call, Noland Langford, chief executive at Left Brain Wealth Management, returns to the show to talk growth stocks.
Whitney Tilson, founder and chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he expects the market to be flat to slightly up for the remainder of 2023 -- gaining about 5 percent on top of the 17 percent gains thus far -- and then gaining another 10 to 15 percent in 2023. He expects the "sanguine, strong" economic environment to continue despite the skepticism that has been present -- but which hasn't really slowed anything -- this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi dives into factor ETFs with his pick for "ETF of the Week," and Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management talks stocks in the Market Call.
Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says the economy and rate cycle are both reaching inflection points, making it tricky to make moves in fixed income without risking being wrong and facing punishment that's "severe". As such, he suggests moving up in credit quality, avoiding undue risks and starting to lengthen maturities, planning for rates to start going lower in six to nine months when the Federal Reserve has pushed the economy to where inflation finally recedes. Also on the show, Toby Eng discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, showing that nearly one-third of Americans lose sleep at least once a month due to financial uncertainties. In the Market Call, Conrad Doenges, chief investment officer at Ranger Investment Management, makes his first appearance on the show and discusses small-and micro-cap investing.
Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says the trend since October of last year remains up, despite the corrective nature of the last six weeks; that push and pull makes it that Kahn suggests buying only a few solid choices but not buying broadly or getting widely invested because the market's 'just not there at the moment.' Lowry notes that small-cap companies are struggling and he wants to see a resurgence in small-caps to get happy about the market's resurgence and prospects. In The Book Interview, best-selling author Diana Henriques discusses her newest effort -- 'Taming the Street: The Old Guard, the New Deal, and FDR's Fight to Regulate American Capitalism' -- which is out today. In the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen dives into the high cost -- and the spent money that might be recovered -- in cases of romantic infidelity, and Chuck discusses taking some old coins and jewelry to a gold buyer, and what he learned from the process.
Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says the biggest surprise in 2023 has been just how resilient the economy has been, but not the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver a soft landing, because economic growth combined with declining inflation and a cautious central bank are the recipe to delay a decline. Amoroso believes there will eventually be a recession, but says it's not imminent unless the Fed becomes too restrictive too quickly. Also on the show, David Trainer, president at research firm New Constructs, says this week's hot IPO deal is headed for trouble right out of the box, Megan Sanctorum discusses a survey showing that nearly one-third of Americans feel stuck or 'trapped' in a home they don't like or can't afford and, in the Market Call, Chris McMahon, chief executive officer at Aquinas Wealth Management, talks stocks and praises the very IPO that Trainer has in the Danger Zone.
Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says he expects the stock market to continue higher -- until something interrupts the trend and shows a reason to be bearish -- but he acknowledges that the market is climbing the proverbial wall of worry because 'Things are not as bad as people feared.' Conditions haven't been great, but neither have they been awful, and 'not terrible' doesn't inspire investors to get more adventurous. Also on the show, Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research at Oppenheimer and Co., discusses the impact of higher interest rates and stubborn inflation on business-development companies, Roni Israelov, president of NDVR, discusses portfolio construction and the idea that most market moves shouldn't inspire portfolio changes for ordinary investors, and Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, brings his top-down, flavored-with-technicals approach to the Money Life Market Call.
Odysseas Papadimitrou, chief executive officer at WalletHub.com, says that concerns over recent news about the nation's credit-card debt are overblown, in part because the numbers released recently by the Federal Reserve aren't adjusted for inflation. WalletHub analyzed the numbers and found that credit card debit levels relative to assets and other metrics show that the consumer is stronger than the Fed number suggests, which suggests that the consumer-driven economy can keep rolling. Also ont he show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a currency hedged play on Japan his 'ETF of the Week,' Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses the site's annual checking account survey which shows record levels of ATM fees -- though he argues that statistic is less important than it has been in decades -- and, in the Market Call, Ken Mahoney of Mahoney Asset Management discusses his GPS Method of buying companies that beat estimates and raise guidance.
Greg Martin, co-founder of Rainmaker Securities -- which specializes in initial public offerings and private-market securities -- says the run-up in interest rates has changed the risk profile of potential buyers, and makes it harder for new projects to draw the dollars if all conditions aren't nearly perfect. He also talks about the SPAC market -- which he calls a 'house of cards' and a Ponzi scheme -- and how companies that want access to the public markets have to change in order to attract those dollars now. Also on the show, Paul Seaton of Fulcrum Asset Management North America discusses the firm's recent survey of investment advisers and discusses where those money managers want to go to diversify client portfolios now, Chuck responds to a listener who suggests that Chuck might have missed his beloved Michigan game last weekend 'on principle,' rather than paying a fee to a streaming service, and Mac Sykes of the Gabelli Funds talks financial stocks in the Market Call.
James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at the Sierra Mutual Funds, says that while conventional thinking has moved away from a recession being imminent, more difficult conditions for consumers in the fourth quarter will create an economic slowdown that is likely to become a mild recession early in 2024. St. Aubin says stocks might tolerate the downturn well, in part because of the bear market of 2022, and in part because the economic downturn is unlikely to last more than two quarters. Azish Filabi of the American College of Financial Services talks about a survey showing the factors that help consumers develop, establish and maintain trust in working with financial advisers. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses 'gray divorces' and the challenges that break-ups at older ages create for a fair split of assets, and Chuck answers a listener's question about pre-nups, trusts or both for providing financial security.
Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com, says he expects the fall to play out the way it has historically, suffering through September and into October before starting a rally into the end of the year. He says the market has struggled since Fitch Ratings downgraded the credit rating of the United States, but that it has also created opportunities where an investor who dials down and gets into specific trending names can ride out the hot streaks while the broad market gets through the doldrums. David Teppe of Tepper Capital Management talks about four of the oldest, most classic closed-end funds and how he has used them for decades, and why he likes them now when they are bringing that long-time consistent performance at a significant discount. Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 study showing that identity theft issues have hit nearly one-third of Americans, and Stephen Dodson of the Bretton Fund covers 'value business investing' in the Market Call.
Meb Faber, chief executive and chief investment officer at Cambria Investments, pounded the table for value investments -- and noted that he never even uses the phrase 'pound the table' -- noting that 'some of the opportunity set that exists today for value-style investments is some of the best we've ever seen.' Despite that environment, Faber is not exceptionally bullish for the market as a whole, noting that 'the conditions we have today are much, much closer to very poor broad-based stock returns going forward for the next decade.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes old-school and makes a classic fund with a bent for industrial stocks his pick as ETF of the Week and, in the market Call, Kyle Balkissoon of the Hennessy Stance ESG ETF, discusses his mix of social and governance factors with quantitative investment tactics.
Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says the bond market and Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell 'are like two ships passing in the night,' with the bond market expecting the central bank chairman to cut rates sooner than he might want to, but if Powell raises rates or keeps them higher for longer, it will have a big negative impact on the market. Mullaney may not like the domestic markets particularly well, but he continues to considerit 'the best house in a bad neighborhood,' noting that other economies -- particularly Europe -- are facing bigger struggles right now. Also on the show, Deb Boyden of Schroders discusses the firm's annual retirement survey, which showed that just 10 percent of non-retirees plan to wait to age 70 before claiming Social Security benefits, meaning they will not max out their payouts because they want to start receiving cash sooner; plus, Chuck answers a listener question about dollar-cost averaging, and Ed Shill of Wealth Enhancement Group brings his balanced approach to the Market Call.
Katherine Krantz, chief executive officer at the Center for the Macro Specialist Designation, says she sees no indicator suggesting that 'This time is different,' meaning that elements like the inverted yield curve and the leading indicators -- which typically take 18 months before the conditions they exemplify hit the economy -- are only now starting to impact the economy. She doesn't like the looks of what is ahead. In the Talking Technicals segment, Michele Schneider of MarketGauge.com, says she is watching small-company stocks expecting them to be due for a rally as the market moves forward, with mega-cap momentum driven stocks suffering in volatile markets with little or no direction trends. Also on the show, Marci Stewart of Schwab Workplace Financial Services discusses the firm's 2023 401k Participant Study and, in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the importance of a spending plan to keep the money problems at bay and to keep the money in plain sight.
David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says there is a less than 50 percent chance of a recession this year, but adds that it looks like the economy could actually push off the downturn until 2025, with the strong job market and low unemployment basically balancing out bad inflation to keep economic troubles at bay. Also on the show, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the growing crisis in student-loan debt and the steps consumers are hoping legislators will take as they face the re-start to loan payments beginning in October. Plus, Jenn Tracy discusses a Craftjack.com survey on the way remote workers think their bosses are checking their work habits and productivity and, in the Danger Zone segment, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits a zombie stock that has little left to chew on and just months left before it runs out of capital.
David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- president of Sierra Alpha Research -- says that growth stocks are overextended and he expects that to unwind -- especially for the so-called 'Magnificent Seven' -- leading to choppiness for the rest of the third quarter before an end-of-year rally, with longer-term conditions weakening entering the New Year. Keller notes that forecast maps well with what most observers would have expected entering a pre-election year. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses the data and research behind building a portfolio of closed-end funds, Joe Mazzola of Charles Schwab covers the firm's Q3 Trader Sentiment Survey and where traders believe the market is headed, and Matt Lindholm, portfolio manager at CAZ Investments, talks thematic investing and growth-at-a-reasonable-price in the Market Call.
Jeff Weaver, senior portfolio manager at Allspring Global Investments, discusses how the money-market fund business has changed as interest rates have climbed to where payouts are at levels not seen in decades, but cautions against going all-in on the short-term savings instruments because when a recession comes -- something he expects for 2024 -- investors who have not started to lengthen out the maturity of fixed income holdings will miss out on the solid longer-term rates available today. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at the strong consumer's shopping habits for his ETF of the Week, author Kerry Pechter of Retirement Income Journal discusses his revised version of 'Annuities for Dummies' and the way higher interest rates and inflation have changed the picture for annuity products, and Luke Babich of Clever Real Estate discusses their survey showing that Americans in the market for a home have some surprising misconceptions about the costs and responsibilities of buying and owning one.
Mervin Jebaraj, a professor at the University of Arkansas who chairs the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics, says the group's most recent poll of members showed a remarkable turnaround of sentiment from just a few months ago. Two-thirds of the economists polled were confident the economy is headed for a soft-landing scenario now, as opposed to the March survey results which showed nearly 70 percent had no confidence in a good outcome. Also on the show, Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Adviser, talks about playing defense in these confusing market times, Elliott Gue of the Energy and Income Advisor tackles the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck talks about the closure of a fund that tracked the stock picks of CNBC stock-talker Jim Cramer.
Rusty Vanneman, chief investment officer at Orion, says that while the economy has done better than experts forecasts and predictions of a soft- or no-landing scenario are well-reasoned, the leading indicators -- which take a long time to impact the economy -- show that storm clouds remain in place, at least enough so that investors should be cautious. He talks about diversifying into this market to account for those risks. Also on the show, Bryan Armour of Morningstar discusses the firm's latest U.S. fund fees study, which shows that Americans are saving billions by continuing to adhere to cost-conscious strategies, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses in 'Find Me The Money' how couples can and should commingle finances and money-management styles when first connecting to avoid trouble later, and Scott Bennett of Invest With Rules puts his rules to work in the Money Life Market Call.
Edward Yardeni, president and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, says it is possible that long-term recession predictors like the inverted yield curve and leading indicators may not be right this time, but mostly because the economy has been going through a series of recessions in various sectors. At the same time as those niche downturns, Yardeni says there have been simultaneous recoveries occurring in other portions of the economy, creating a counterbalance that has kept the United States out of a full-blown recession and which appears likely to keep it out of any protracted decline. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about the widest discounts the closed-end fund industry has seen in decades and how that is a big buy signal right now. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs puts ride-share company Lyft back in The Danger Zone, noting that its recent rebound shouldn't fool anyone into thinking the company is out of the woods and looking solid for the future.
Jordan Lopez, manager of the Payden High Income Fund, says that the healthy economy -- which he sees as being able to avoid a protracted and/or deep recession -- has high-yield securities in a good place, able to pay out returns that beat current inflation rates without much additional default risk. He notes that with a lot of high-yield debt currently having intermediate maturities, companies can be flexible and patient, which will help to guard against rising costs of capital until the rate trend turns. Also on the show, Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says the market has been pushing against support levels and if it breaks through 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it could break out of its current range and fall significantly; still, he feels like most of the downside pressure is a short-term risk, with longer-term technical indicators holding up reasonably well. Plus, Christian Munafo of Liberty Street Advisors and the Private Shares Fund talks about burgeoning opportunities in private-equity and venture-capital investing, and David Miller of the Catalyst Mutual Funds talks in the Market Call about using insider-buying as a buy/sell factor in stock selection.
Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says that, in hindsight, the economy was never in real danger of a recession because of the strong consumer and with the consumer now getting stronger the economy will be able to move forward at reasonable growth levels. Frick also calls the inverted yield curve and the leading economic indicators 'irrelevant,' noting that conditions were so changed by the pandemic that the key numbers to watch changed. He watches spending, and while he feels good about prospects, Frick is not optimistic due to economic challenges facing the nearly one-third of Americans who qualify as 'lower-income.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi turns to uranium for his ETF of the Week. And the Market Call features a first in the history of the show -- coverage of preferred securities -- with Douglas Crimmins of Relative Value Partners talking about generating income at reasonable prices.
Financial journalist Allan Sloan -- a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award -- says that while it appears the country can avoid a recession, America can't avoid long-term financial trouble if leaders in Washington can't find a way to compromise and make progress on financial goals. He says the Fitch Ratings downgrade of U.S. credit is a sign that the markets recognize how intractable the country's political divide is. In The Big Interview, Rohan Reddy, director of research at Global X ETFs, talks short-term Treasury investing in a high-rate market with an inverted yield curve, but also touches on other investment themes driving pockets of the market today. In the Market Call, Mike Liss of the American Century Value fund, discusses relative-value investing and the ease of finding reasonable bargains today.
Brian Barish, president and chief investment officer for Cambiar Investors, says that rising interest rates have increased the cost of capital for businesses, which is shifting which industries and businesses can thrive. The increased cost of capital is changing market conditions to where value and growth investing are now on a more equal footing, and should be more balanced moving forward. Leo Leydon, president of Financial Focus Advisory Services, says the economy has had its recession in the form of two negative GDP quarters last year, and that people expecting a bear market have been wrong; while he expects a pullback in the market, Leydon thinks it will be short enough to be treated like a buying opportunity. Susan Fahy examines the latest 'Credit Gauge' from VantageScore, which shows that delinquencies are up slightly but that American consumers are using credit more cautiously. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen gets real in discussing pre-nups, post-nups and 're-nups,' and showing how some cases involving 'Real Housewives' cast members highlight the struggles couples have when dividing both assets and debts when the relationship and the money don't turn out as anticipated on the wedding day.
Joe Terranova, chief market strategist at Virtus Investment Partners, says the worst is over for the economy -- the worst being the horrible stock and bond market of 2022 -- and that while recessionary conditions exist or may bubble up in some sectors, the overall market is likely to be strong, retaining or growing the gains the market has experienced thus far this year. David Trainer, president and founder at New Constructs puts Wayfair back in the Danger Zone, noting that with the stock having more than doubled this year, recent good news has merely made the situation more dangerous. Also on the show, Chuck takes a listener's question on declaring for Social Security benefits and Craig Copeland, director of wealth benefits research at Employee Benefit Research Institute, talks about the negative impacts that caring for loved ones can have on the caregivers' retirement confidence.
Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says the slow-developing impacts from the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening policy 'still lies before us,' putting the market 'in a vulnerable spot' as it enters August, September and October, historically the toughest months of the year. As a result, he expects a 'tactical correction' late this year, and urges patience while that plays out. Also stressing patience on this show is Jason Brown of The Brown Report, who notes that the market has hit a band of resistance short of returning to all-time highs and he expects it to struggle to break through, although he thinks support levels will hold up because the negatives have been priced in. He expects a choppy, range-bound market that works well for options and covered-call strategies but is hard on directional traders who need bullish or bearish trends. Plus, Scott Caraher, head of senior loans at Nuveen says rate hikes are stressing low-rated companies and are likely to spur new defaults, but also creating opportunities in higher-rated paper that can get through the economic downturn and thrive when rates eventually start to reverse their course
Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments, says the stock market's strong run makes investors feel good, but it has gotten to a point where the market is expecting more that a slowing economy that is dealing with inflation can deliver. Thomas says the current earnings recession is problematic -- regardless of whether the broad economy enters a recession -- because it shows that micro issues and what is happening at the company level will be more important than the macro, big-picture issues moving into 2024. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a new fund that puts a different twist -- driven by artificial intelligence -- on 'Buy on the dips.' Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com looks at how inflation and rate changes are impacting credit-card users, and what it all says for the big picture at a time when credit-card debt nationally now exceeds $1 trillion. In the Market Call, Dorrit Lowsen, president of Change Finance, talks stocks through the lens of her firm's unique take on ESG investing.
Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief investment officer, at Centerstone Investors says the economy is still playing out the last effects of the pandemic, and that a recession is likely to be the end of those financial consequences before 'the normal progression starts to resume.' Deshpande says it will be a 'run-of-the-mill recession,' a mild slowdown that investors will want to muddle through in stocks, rather than seeking shelter in fixed income. Also on the show, Regina Conway of Slickdeals discusses how inflation has been impacting the impulse-buying habits of American consumers, Chuck answers a listener question and Michael Roomberg of Miller Howard Investments talks energy stocks in the Market Call.
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank says that the economy is not headed toward a significant downturn felt across many sectors of the economy, showing up in declining incomes and employment and it lasts for several quarters. While he sees slow growth and a few other issues, Adams believes the Federal Reserve has done enough to avoid a recession, and expects the central bank to wait at least one more meeting before having a rate hike in November to help play out the policies it has been pursuing to reduce inflation. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors also sees the market and economy riding out a few years down the road before there is any recession; Newton expects investors to be able to make money this year and next before he sees a bear market ending the rally. In the latest installment of 'Find Me The Money,' forensic accountant Tracy Coenen discusses how earnings discrepancies and career moves make it imperative for women to get their share of a couple's retirement savings -- even if it means giving up the house -- to avoid becoming a statistic about poor lifetime savings. Plus, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, talks about the positive value proposition of buying a ticket for Tuesday's $1.55 billion MegaMillions drawing.
Akhil Patel, author of 'The Secret Wealth Advantage: How You Can Profit from the Economy's Hidden Cycle' says that the economy is nearing the peak in the long-term cycles his research has uncovered, and that time should be filled with rampant speculative behavior, where investors lose sight of fundamentals. He expects that rally built around confidence and momentum to end when the cycle turns and the long-term cycle he sees quickly reaches its depths. Also on the show, research analyst Megan Sanctorum discusses how much the average American spends on products endorsed by athletes, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits SNAP, saying that a recent run-up makes the stock particularly worrisome now, and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners covers the tactical use of exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.
Veteran markets observer Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says he has been surprised by the strength of the market's current rally, but he doesn't see the market re-testing of lows -- even if the uptrend has gone too far, too fast -- so long as the Federal Reserve is nearly done with hiking rates. Sargen notes that one saving grace of the market's topsy-turvy year has been that fixed-income has started working again, paying investors while they wait for better conditions for stocks. Sargen noted that he also likes India and Japan as international investments now. Also on the show, Chris Oberbeck, chairman and chief executive officer at Saratoga Investment Corp., says that the changing rate, banking and inflation conditions have given business-development companies and private lenders more power to make good deals that can weather a recession, and in the Market Call, Dave Sekera, the chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, talks about buying stocks trading well below their fair-value estimate.
Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says investors should be thinking defensively and looking at dividend stocks rather than hoping that central bankers will pivot and start cutting rates to boost the market, because he thinks the Fed will stick with higher rates until economic conditions deteriorate to where such a move is necessary. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, meanwhile, looks toward small-cap stocks with his pick for ETF of the Week, George Milling-Stanley of State Street Global Advisors returns to the show for a second day, going off the news to talk about how Fitch Ratings' cut of the U.S. credit rating will impact markets and gold, and Darren Chervitz of Jacob Discovery Fund talks about buying small - and micro-cap stocks at value prices in the Market Call.
George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that a recession or period of slower growth will hurt the dollar and domestic stocks, creating ideal conditions for gold, particularly with the confluence of higher-for-longer inflation and election-year politics. Milling-Stanley notes that while gold has not been a great hedge against the recent inflation, he expects it to do better in that role going forward because 'we have not yet had the kind of inflation that gold has historically offered protection against.' Also on the show, Hamish Preston of S and P Dow Jones Indices, discusses how the stock market in July hit thresholds for success that had not been seen in nearly 30 years, Greg McBride of BankRate.com discusses Americans' most common financial regrets and, in the Market Call, Cullen Roche of the Discipline Funds talks systematic investment in exchange-traded funds.
Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global market strategist at Charles Schwab and Co., says that the cardboard box recession of the last year -- which affected manufacturing and trade sectors, effectively 'everything that goes in a cardboard box' -- has allowed the economy and market to push forward despite potential troubles, but now he sees difficult conditions hitting some of the service sectors which could lead to worse economic conditions. While he is not expecting a hard landing -- although he notes that the weather could be a surprising economic factor -- Kleintop expects volatility and conditions that favor international investments, particularly in Japan and India. Meanwhile, Kendall Dilley of Vineyard Global Advisors says that the market's technicals are pointing to a downturn, but showing enough strength that any correction should be a buying opportunity. Plus, Robbie Burns -- 'The Naked Trader' discusses 'The Naked Trader's Book of Trading Strategies', and forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about whether finding the money actually leads to recovering it and getting a payoff in the latest edition of 'Find Me The Money.'
Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, has gotten famous making 10 predictions every year, and he sits down to revisit what he was saying at the start of the year and how it has been turning out. Thus far, it has been a mixed bag, but Doll notes that the market has been more optimistic than anyone expected for 2023, and now that investors are feeling fat and happy, they are likely to live through a recession. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest details from the 2023 Planning and Progress Study from Northwestern Mutual, showing that 35 percent of Americans say they're close to or at their highest-ever level of personal debt, Mitchell Morrison, creator of the Eyeballs app, talks about whether consumers will trust artificial intelligence and services like ChatGPT to do their financial planning, and Kyle Guske, of New Constructs puts a popular brand-name stock in the Danger Zone, noting that it could easily shed $100 per share from current price levels.
Jim Welsh, author of the 'Macro Tides' and 'Weekly Technical Review' newsletters, says that the leading economic indicators that had everyone expecting a recession a year ago have fooled investors by softening recently. While many experts now are predicting a soft landing and the potential for no recession, Welsh says key indicators -- like the inverted yield curve -- often take a year or more to pan out and they will come to roost in the next three to six months, reinforcing the possibility of a 5 to 7 percent market pullback before the year ends. Also on the show, Jon Baranko, chief investment officer for fundamental investments at Allspring Global Investments, discusses how the strong start to 2023 impacted the firm's mid-year outlook, which is looking ahead and seeing broader participation and strong times for small-cap stocks ahead. In The NAVigator, it's Josh Duitz of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, explains why the timing is good for infrastructure investing but notes that the public companies in the sector are a particularly good value right now. In the Market Call, Bernie Horn of the Polaris Global Value fund talks stocks.
Long-time bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles and Co., says that the current economic environment 'rhymes with what we had in the 1970s, but the geopolitics and the climate are new things, and they are actually more important right now than what the Fed is up to.' Fuss says he does not expect short-term interest rates to start trending downward quickly, noting that he expects the yield curve to flatten but not to return to its normal slope soon. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to regional banking -- a sector that has been troubled and which may not be through those rough times this week -- for his ETF of the Week, and author Michael Robbins discusses the impact artificial intelligence is having on investment thinking as he discusses his book 'Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing.'
Brian Price, head of investment management at Commonwealth Financial Network, says it's hard to make a case for risk assets like stocks to move much in either direction and the mixed signals extend to the economy, which he believes will avoid the extreme moves in either direction. As a result, he discounts the potential for an economic hard landing -- despite expecting below-average economic growth -- despite expecting lackluster performance as current conditions play out into next year. Similar sentiments were expressed by Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, who notes that gold has been a better hedge for inflation of late than it was at the start of the interest rate-hike cycle, but who notes that the real potential in precious metals moving forward will be more about total return of the asset compared to stocks. Winmill, who also manages Dividend and Income Fund, says he expects a coming downturn to strengthen the many buys he currently sees for investors willing to look past the few stocks that have led the current rally. Also on the show, Jill Gonzalez discusses WalletHub's analysis that a small Federal Reserve rate hike will directly cost Americans billions of dollars in extra interest charges, Lester Jones talks the latest business conditions survey out this week from the National Association for Business Economics -- which shows surprising optimism among economists -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about investing for income.
Jeffrey Bierman, founder of The QuantGuy.com and chief market technician at TheoTrade.com, says that the market is overheated and overbought, but it very well could rise from here and re-touch record highs before a likely correction ahead. Bierman says technology and leisure are the areas that have made the market frothy and are overdue for a correction of 30 percent or more, and while oil and financials will help the overall market cushion the fall, Bierman believes utilities and pharmaceutical stocks will be areas to outperform while the market goes through 'unavoidable' pain. Brian Payne, chief strategist for private markets and alternatives at BCA Research talks about the wide-ranging opportunities in the private credit markets, and how senior loans and other private credit varieties can goose a portfolio's yield. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen identifies three common red flags pointing to signs of financial fraud in the latest installment of 'Find Me The Money,' and Eric Boughton, chief analyst at Matisse Capital, talks about closed-end funds, wide discounts and current buying opportunities in the Market Call.
Retail industry analyst Dana Telsey, chief executive at Telsey Advisory Group, says that inflation has forced consumers to become more discerning with their spending, using more on essentials and trying to keep powder dry, and while it's not enough of a pullback to tank the economy, the longer inflation persists at high levels, the harder it will be for the consumer to keep propping up the economy. Meanwhile, bullish investor sentiment -- the expectation that the stock market will gain ground in the next six months -- reached "unusually high" levels in the latest American Association of Individual Investors survey, with Charles Rotblut -- who runs the survey for AAII -- noting that extreme sentiment levels often are a precursor to the market changing directions. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs says puts Tesla and Netflix back into the Danger Zone, noting valuations after recent earnings reports have them poised for a setback and, in the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds puts his take on value investing in current conditions.
Avi Gilburt, founder of the ElliottWave Trader continues to see the market rallying to new highs but then setting off on a years-long bear market, but in his other role as founder of Safer Banking Research, he notes that the economic downturn will include much more pain for banks, noting that the bank collapses from earlier in 2023 are just the tip of the iceberg, and investors who flee the market for the safety of banks may soon be worrying about just being able to get their money back. Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management discusses how investors should not replace individual bonds with traditional bond funds, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com talks about the financial costs of travel problems that consumers have been facing this year. Plus Ryan Kirlin of Alpha Architect and the U.S. Quantitative Value and U.S. Quantitative Momentum ETFs talks systematic investing in the Market Call.
Geoff Dailey, head of U.S. equities at BNP Paribas, says he expects the economy to go through a recession, but not one that is particularly deep or long, provided that the Federal Reserve's moves work toward reducing inflation. Dailey expects the market to be particularly volatile around news events like inflation and unemployment reports, but says that volatility will remove much of the building pressure for something bigger and more painful; his worry is that if inflation doesn't cool, the Fed could keep pushing until the economy craters, causing the worst-case scenario of a deep downturn. Also on the show, Mark Yusko of Morgan Creek Capital Management talks about the 'FANGMAN' stocks -- which he considers highly overvalued despite leading the market this year -- as well as funds and ETFs in the Market Call, Sam Huisache discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey showing Americans don't feel that marriage is much of a factor when it comes to home buying, and Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a consumer-centric fund his ETF of the Week.
Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says she expects a recession and the bad news of that economic downturn will be contagious, with the recession hitting employment, rising unemployment will impact income levels, which hurts spending, and declines in spending injures corporate profits. That cycle could lead to a relatively long sideways period, especially if the Federal Reserve takes its time before changing its rate outlook. Also on the shot, MIT professor Yossi Sheffi discusses his latest book, "The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I. and the Future of Work," and in the Market Call, Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks about how even a diehard stock jockey like himself should be considering bank deposits as a possible alternative during the rough times he sees dead ahead.
Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist at the Hartford Funds, says risk markets are pricing in the likelihood that the Federal Reserve can orchestrate and navigate the economy to a soft landing, and yet her base case is for a recession and history shows these conditions typically end up in a rougher landing. That's how she sees things playing out, despite the current emotions of the market. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talks about the importance of digging into tax returns when coming up with equitable settlements in divorce cases in the latest episode of 'Find Me The Money.' Meredith Lepore discusses a Credello survey on how parents are contributing to their kids' student loan payments and how it is stressing their ability to save for retirement and more, plus Michael Loukas, chief executive officer at TrueMark Investments -- which runs the TrueShares ETFs -- talks winner-take-all stock investing in the Market Call.
Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at TruStage, says that while there has been rolling softness in the economy, he believes the Federal Reserve sees inflation as being worse than unemployment, which makes the central bank so determined to curb inflation that it hikes rates and/or delays rate cuts until the jobless rate rises enough to trigger a recession. And while Knapp acknowledges that the Fed could thread the needle perfectly, he notes that he doesn't think a soft landing is the probable outcome. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund in the Danger Zone for performance that he says has been much less than management's investment style should have produced, Olivia Newport covers a Choice Mutual survey showing that inflation has impacted Americans' funeral preferences, and author Michael Thomsen discusses his latest book, 'Cage Kings: How an Unlikely Group of Moguls, Champions, and Hustlers Transformed the UFC into a $10 Billion Industry.'