Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Ross Mayfield, investment strategist at Baird, says that the Federal Reserve "is going to be very hard pressed to find a reason to cut [rates] here," and he thinks that if the central bank does have to make rate reductions down the road, "it won't be for reasons investors would be excited about." Mayfield says he remains bullish, noting that "a consolidation period is probably in order," setting up a volatile summer setting up a continuation of the bull market later in the year, barring any sort of exogenous shock. And speaking of shocks, Mayfield addresses what he sees as building signs of a market bubble, and while he says they bear watching, he is not expecting that kind of action to result from current conditions. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes Roundhill Memory — a brand-new fund that has raked in billions of dollars in assets in just weeks since it opened — his "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund has gotten off to a gangbusters start but that the fund's focus on just a few hot stocks should have investors concerned about whether it's a flash in the pan or here to last. Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, returns to the Market Call, and focuses largely on business-development companies, which got hammered due to software lending in March, rebounded sharply in April but remain unloved by the market today. GraniteShares' HIPS U.S. High Income ETF invests largely in BDCs and closed-end funds; Rhind outlines the current yield outlook in that space and for master limited partnerships.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that we have "had the most stunning earnings season in pretty much anybody's recollection," exceeding expectations and making it that the market is more focused on the earnings story than anything else, including bad news about war, inflation and more. He sees that trend continuing, even if inflation rises or stays sticky, until or unless it bumps into a recession, which he sees as unlikely. Hyman also discusses ProShares' new ETF based on the S&P 500 Buyback Aristocrats Index, and how that fund and a sister dividend aristocrats fund can be used to add consistency to a portfolio for investors who fear the bad news. He also discusses why he is overweighting small-cap now, seeing it returning to its historic role of providing above-average market returns. Rachel Perez discusses Choice Mutual's 7th annual Funeral Preferences Survey, which found that nearly one in five Americans have no financial plan whatsoever for their funeral, leaving family or friends to shoulder the burden, which averages in the $8,000 range but which can easily be double or triple that cost.  In the Market Call, Wayne Thorp, chief executive officer at BetterInvesting — which is part of the National Association of Investors — brings the well-developed principles of the group's Stock Selection Guide to look for high-quality growth companies that can be held for the long term.

Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says he expects the stock market to continue on its positive roll and wouldn't be surprised if it's up by about 6% from current levels over the next six months, but he also says that investors should expect interest rates to go up this year — even as he thinks the Federal Reserve will look to make a cut — because there is so much incoming bond supply driven by the artificial-intelligence boom and the need to fund A.I. projects. Further, Wells says that investors' bond funds are becoming "a tech bet" as the market changes and tries to absorb the massive funding needs behind new technologies. Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says the current trend can drive the market higher, though the trend would need more breadth and participation to generate more optimism. He says investors should be using volatility to their advantage, especially in areas where consumer sentiment is weak, to buy into sectors that are on sale. Specifically, he is looking for alternative ways to play artificial intelligence, such as with energy companies and other adjacent industries.  Martha Moore, chief economist for the American Chemistry Council and survey chair for the National Association for Business Economics discusses NABE's latest Business Conditions Survey, released Monday, which showed that corporate economists see shrinking profit margins and, as a result, higher prices being passed along to consumers, which could keep inflation higher for longer. Despite that, the economists remain modestly positive on the next calendar quarter. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to view a portfolio that just set a personal peak, but that is overloaded with growth stock funds.

Vince Duffy, news director, Michigan Public, joined Chuck at the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing Conference in Philadelphia to discuss how the media handles its coverage of soft versus hard data and whether those stories — and others — are politicized. Duffy also talks about coverage priorities and the difficulties of balancing news that consumers need with the things they most want. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, joins the optimists in his assessment of last week's jobs data, though he does suggest the numbers have room to flex and will make it hard for the Federal Reserve to cut rates quickly or deeply. He also discusses the wild GameStop bid to buy eBay, and revisits Jane Street Capital, the market maker he discussed a week ago, covering why it has become so important and why foreign regulators believe the company may be gaming the system.  David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, looks at the cash burning tendencies of some popular stocks — including two members of the Magnificent 7 — and puts them in the Danger Zone, noting that the burn rates suggest that there are potential troubles ahead. Plus Chuck gives his surprising takeaway from the SABEW event, one he says he formed mostly during the long drive home, which he interrupted to fill his gas tank at prive levels that were painful.

Erik Aarts, senior fixed income strategist at Touchstone Investments, says the last few weeks have shown a disconnect between stock and bond markets, with the bond markets getting particularly cautious while stocks have raced back to record highs. What the bond market is worried about, Aarts says,  is that higher oil prices will bleed into another round of higher inflation. ... At its base case, that's why yields are up today." Aarts also discusses how high-yield bonds are not living so much up to their label as "junk bonds," and that much of that high-risk exposure has moved to or stayed in private credit markets, changing the risk-reward profile of high-yield bonds and making them more attractive than other categories now. For his ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes in an unusual direction, picking an emerging markets sovereign debt fund that gets poor grade from Morningstar but that Rosenblth says fits the bill for a growing group of investors looking for overseas bond exposure that's tied to the dollar.  Wall Street veteran Anthony Gallea, chief executive at Working Profit and publisher of the Working Profit Investment Letter, adds the twist of finding a catalyst to a Benjamin Graham-Warren Buffett style of value investing. In the Market Call, Gallea discusses how that works and where he sees potential catalysts now.

Parag Sanghani of the Westwood Holdings Group, manager of the firm's Enhanced Energy Income and Enhanced Midstream Income ETFs, says that the ongoing war in Iran has pulled volumes from inventories early, creating synthetic demand that will keep prices higher for several years. That benefits the oil companies and stocks that Sangahni likes, but it hurts by creating a tax at the gas pump, which he expects to remain in place longer than most projections. Sanghani says he currently likes the entire spectrum of energy investments, not just oil and gas, noting that power demands are expected to keep growing beyond current capacity constraints for years to come. Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that productivity, GDP growth and earnings are "what matters," and that the headline risks that are driving consumer sentiment are "distractions" from a market backdrop that is solid. He says inflation remains the big risk, but notes that the investor sentiment is creating opportunities, particularly in closed-end funds where they are reflected in discount trends.  Plus, Stephen Lubben, a law professor at Seton Hall University, discusses his recent book, "To Protect Their Interests: The Invention and Exploitation of Corporate Bankruptcy," and how the nation's bankruptcy laws have been used in ways that don't protect the broader economy from the failure of big firms but instead protect wealthy power brokers from facing financial consequences of mistakes and misdeeds.

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says that the stock market's flirtation with record highs is showing some overvaluation — increasing the potential downside risk — but he only expects that risk to be realized "if the narrative changes, if something comes out of left field that shakes the whole foundation of what is building market optimism today." His most likely candidate for that confidence-breaker is not war or current events, but some change in the artificial-intelligence boom that has been driving spending and earnings growth. St. Aubin says that if negative data on sentiment and feelings winds up showing up in changed habits and spending patterns, it could create economic problems, but until that happens, he says inflation and other concerns are not likely to derail the market's uptrend. Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer at ProcureAM — which runs the Procure Space ETF (ticker symbol: UFO) talks about how space may be the next frontier in investing, particularly in light of the excitement coming off of the recent Artemis moon mission, which highlighted not only the potential investment avenues but the prospects for private companies to drive the future of space exploration. He explains how concepts like "solar space energy" could help to power Earth-bound needs for more energy, and how satellite changes are impacting communications industries and more. Plus, researcher Allison Hadley discusses a study conducted for Partnercentric.com, which focused on Americans' impulse spending, which found that more than four in five consumers have made at least one impulse buy already this year, with an average of seven purchases made in the first quarter alone, and a median spend of $50 per purchase.

Brad McMillan, chief economist for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that there's "an enormous feel-bad headline economy," but the underlying fundamentals are solid enough to keep earnings growing, which will make it that the market does well, or at least avoids a protracted, deep downturn. McMillan worries that when the supply-chain breaks for food, for holiday shopping and more several months from now that it could trigger a recession, but he says that, for now, the numbers that normally signal that a grizzly bear market — a combination of a recession and a crashing market — aren't lined up to happen yet. Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, also is staying out of the recession camp, but he does "suspect that we can't just go to the moon right away," and thinks the market could be in for a 5% haircut this month. Newton says that earnings and the economy have been better than expected, which is why he is telling people to "put on the blindfold and put on earphones" to concentrate on strong technical trends and economic data that remain in good shape. Cary Sinnett, senior manager of financial planning at AICPA, discusses the group's survey which showed that while nearly 80% of Americans report having money set aside to cover living expenses and emergencies, the depth of those savings varies dramatically by age and gender, and the even among the savers less than one in five has enough on hand to cover more than a year's costs.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research Institute and the author of "Follow the Fed to Investment Success," says that it doesn't matter much to the stock market when a rate cut happens, so long as investors can expect decline and believe the central bank will step in with one if employment numbers change significantly. Roberts says that the market wants to know that "the Fed has your back," and he expects new chairman Kevin Warsh to signal that, even if it is not accompanied immediately by rate cuts. Roberts also says that current conditions and the Fed's outlook should be leading investors to domestic stocks and particularly to small- and mid-cap names.  Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why the market liked Alphabet's earnings results last week but hated Meta Platform's numbers, and what that says about each company moving forward, discusses the disappointing crash landing of Spirit Airlines, and delves into the curious story of Jane Street Capital, the little-known Wall Street market maker that made headlines when it was revealed that its average compensation per employee last year was roughly $2.7 million, more than seven times higher than the average staffer at Goldman Sachs. As the latest earnings season starts to wind down, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that companies with core earnings lower than their reported net income — a status that gets names kicked out of the Bloomberg New Constructs Core Earnings Leaders Index — are in the Danger Zone, largely because they are less profitable than Wall Street thinks they are. He singles out two companies, Boeing and Broadridge Financial Solutions, as examples of stocks where the true profitability is obscured. Plus, Lester Jones, chief economist for National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers' Index, where the April numbers suggest that a "beer recession" looks to be over, with purchases strongly on the rise in preparation for the summer season, a result that is somewhat surprising because economic conditions suggest that consumers may be cutting back on spending. He says shifting consumption patterns are boosting sales, but he also expects inflation impacts to be more muted than many observers expect.

Matt Stucky, chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management, says in the Market Call that scary headlines over higher gas prices, inflation and war haven't created a significant headwind to overcome the solid earnings growth picture. Stucky adds that beyond the earnings results, the economy is benefitting from tax and tariff reductions that are helping to balance out the new concerns; he discusses how a broader growth picture is good for small and mid-cap stocks, why he thinks the financial-services sector was oversold and more. Jeff Corliss, managing director at HighTower Signature Wealth, discusses the behavioral traps and pitfalls that stop well-meaning investors with solid financial plans from achieving their real goals, noting that it's the details more than the markets that derails retirement savings before all of a plan's aims are met. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors and the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance, recounts the legacy and the lasting investment legacy of Dr. Mark Mobius, widely considered the father of modern emerging-markets investing. Mobius, who passed away on April 15, was a contemporary and colleague of Sir John Templeton, and spent decades seeking out investments in the farthest reaches of the world; Scott looks at some of the wisdom collected in years of interviews done with George Cole Scott, the founder of The Closed-End Fund Letter.  

Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that "thee's the real economy and there's what the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are measuring" and they're different, which is why it's "not crazy for the stock market to reflect something almost separated from reality." As a result, consumers can freak out at what they see at the gas pumps and grocery stores and concerns over war can be on everyone's mind at the same time the market is re-testing record highs. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, Hsu also discusses why the U.S. and China have backed away from trade-war tensions and how artificial intelligence may have a bigger impact on work forces in India and China than it does in the U.S. and more. In the Market Call, Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management, discusses the current ongoing rally in small-cap growth stocks and why she expects smaller stocks to return to their historical path of delivering gains that are slightly better than brand-name stocks over time. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a domestic dividend-driven fund for his ETF of the Week, noting that it's a defensive pick in part because "that's what has worked this year."

Shawn Severson, chief executive officer and the head of market and thematic research at Water Tower Research, says that oil futures prices looking out into 2027 and reacting as if "$70 is the new $60," a sign that the market does not think any oil shock will be long-lasting. Meanwhile, he says that the economy's continuing strength is showing that it can absorb and tolerate higher inflation and other current headline risks without falling into a recession. As a result, he sees downturns while the market digests the uncomfortable news as if there's a "pig in the python" as buying opportunities. Jenny Harrington, chief executive officer and portfolio manager at Gilman Hill Asset Management says in the Market Call that artificial intelligence having sucked up so much attention and investment dollars has actually created "more excellent opportunities in the past year than I have had in a long time." Despite that, Harrington says it's a tough overall market to pick stocks because current events are distorting and disrupting markets and "I don't think we've even begun to feel what the reverberations and aftershocks may be from the closing of the Strait of Hormuz."  Stephen Kates, financial analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the latest national housing affordability numbers that were released on Tuesday, and how cooling home prices offer modest relief to prospective buyers. He notes that with 30-year mortgage rates seemingly stuck at or above 6% nationally for a while, the market is not likely to feel much better even if affordability numbers keep showing moderate improvement.

Steve Laipply, global co-head of iShares Fixed Income ETFs for Blackrock, says that with fixed-income yields staying high and with evolving tools in new funds, investors have a generational opportunity to generate solid real returns and, more importantly, a solid income stream. BlackRock today released a new paper on current fixed-income opportunities, and Laipply discusses laddering bond ETFs with different maturities versus holding more general short-, intermediate and long-term funds, as well as the benefits of adding different types of fixed-income funds, including private credit and more. Russell Rhoads,  professor of financial management at Indiana University and co-host of Academic Market Insights, says in the "Talking Technicals" segment that he's "a beat-up bear," but he cautions that volatility remains elevated and that when the VIX volatility index is elevated when the stock market is going strong, "That usually doesn't end very well." He says that stocks are about six months into an over-valuation cycle, with the Cape Shiller PE Index hitting its highest levels in decades; "When it reaches a higher level like that," Rhoads says, "we have typically gotten a correction in the next year or two." Plus, Chuck — who wrote two different books on choosing and working with financial advisers — answers a question from a listener whose financial adviser is retiring, who now has to decide if they accept that adviser's recommended replacement, go with an adviser with whom there are family ties or starts over with someone new.

While much of the focus on artificial intelligence has been on how it will improve productivity, economist Benjamin Shiller, author of "AI Economics: How Technology Transforms Jobs, Markets, Life and Our Culture," says that many impacts that are just starting to be seen will be at least as revolutionary. Shiller says, for example, tha expects an end or near end to pop-up ads and Internet advertising, expects books to be free and much more. He also discusses the continuing challenges of AI integration and whether investors have seen the true financial winners yet.  After a week in which Nvidia and Intel powered the stock market back to near record levels, Vijay Marolia, the chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why the rally in one of those stocks feels temporary while the other can roll on. He also compares and contrasts those stocks with Apple and Netflix, suggests that investors should slice technology stocks into thin industry groups to get a better understanding of valuations and talk about his expectations for inflation, all in "The Week That Is."   Plus, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts a mid-cap fund that is off to a hot start this year into The Danger Zone, noting that it is loaded with unattractive stocks far beyond the level of a cheaper mid-cap index fund that projects to be a better long-term holding for the future. He discusses why a fund getting solid ratings from Morningstar could look so ugly to him. 

Kevin Steuer, managing partner at StockTA, says the stock market's rally after the initial peace talks over the War in Iran got a bit ahead of itself, and he's now expecting the market to hover — without facing much downside pressure — awaiting more resolution and clarity. He's heavily in cash at this point — the most cash he has held by percentage since the Covid crisis — and is looking at defensive, inflation-oriented plays while he waits for a signal that the rally is back on. David Gutierrez, vice president at Liberty Street Advisors — which runs the Private Shares Fund — says that private markets are similar enough to public markets that one of the big sweet spots now is artificial intelligence, though he is focused mostly on A.I. infrastructure noting, for example, that the shift from copper-based to optical-based networking in servers is an investable trend that does not depend on how well the AI works but instead is based entirely on the demand for more technology support. He also discusses shifting trends in how long private companies are waiting before going public, and how geopolitics could be impacting private firms. Plus, Noland Langford, chief executive officer at Left Brain Capital Management, brings his strategy of buying proven winners while they are still on the rise back to the Money Life Market Call.

John Silvia, chief executive officer at Dynamic Economic Strategy, says he expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates steady, leaving mortgage rates stuck at 6%-plus and in an environment with the 10-year Treasury rising slightly. Silvia points out that the central bank is not going to be frantic about 3% inflation and reducing it to the 2% target level, but he says that investors and retirees will suffer from that higher inflation, creating more of a retirement-savings struggle. Courtney Werning, principal at Meyer Wilson Werning and the 2027 president-elect for the Public Investors Advocate Bar Association, discusses how and why smart consumers and investors get caught up in scams and how artificial intelligence has raised fraud risks, particularly for seniors. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi , turns to Japan for his ETF of the Week, suggesting that it might be worth a portfolio tilt for someone looking to add foreign exposure to a portfolio. In the process, he discusses whether investors looking that way want to hedge the currency risk or play it straight.

Lance Cannon, portfolio manager at Hood River Capital Management, says in the Market Call that he is looking for transformational small companies that can benefit from changing trends in key industries, which has included artificial-intelligence stocks heavily as his funds produced stellar results in recent years. But Cannon says that looking for those companies means finding businesses that will not wind up on the wrong end of AI developments themselves, where a current flash will turn into a future crash. Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research she did for Howdy.com looking at how consumers use — and whether they trust — artificial intelligence. Following up on David Trainer's Monday appearance in The Danger Zone — where he put all AI users in the Danger Zone because the quality of information they are using is questionable — Hadley noted that consumers are split, with a large cohort having a healthy distrust of the accuracy of the new technology, while another large group is willing to trust its answers blindly. Ray Shefska, co-founder of CarEdge, goes "Off The News," discussing the big expansion plans announced recently for the Amazon Autos program and how it will change — and potentially improve — the car-buying experience for consumers. While Amazon has been selling cars in a pilot program since 2024, the recent news marks an expansion into many more car brands now being available through the retailer.

Dana Samuelson, founder and president of American Gold Exchange, says gold investors shouldn't expect the rally in metals to resume at the pace it set last year — when gold was up over 60% — but he does believe that the fundamentals that were in place for that rally will drive gold back up once concerns over war and inflation are a little less prominent. He sees the metal hitting $6,000 in 12 to 18 months, and says he'd be buying in dips now. Thomas Raymond, founding partner at Callan Family Office, says he's staying patient while war gets resolved, because backstopping the economy and the markets are a $7 trillion mountain of cash that investors will want to put to work, and the continuing artificial-intelligence story that is creating an attractive place to invest it. Those forces should drive the market higher, overcoming inflation and other headlines and potential "micro-recessions" to get there.  David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Investment Managers' Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's recent look at America's massive ongoing wealth transfer, which found that 47% of inheritors don't plan to keep their parents' advisor. He discusses what's behind the changes and what kinds of advice inheritors are hoping to get.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says in "The Big Interview" that solid fundamentals from both the top down and the bottom up should make it that earnings can drive the stock market higher once there is resolution in Iran, where war has been creating problems that could make for a volatile and bumpy few months. He expects higher inflation to be temporary, but thinks conditions are solid enough for a strong rebound once the market feels confident that there is resolution, noting that bounce-backs tend to be solid and strong after geopolitical conflicts end. That makes for selective buy-the-dip opportunities for patient investors.   David Trainer, founder and president of New Constructs, has been issuing warnings tied to artificial intelligence for a while, but this week he goes in a different direction, and comes for A.I. users in the Danger Zone," noting that the shortcomings of the new technology and a conflict of interest involved in its continued development have ordinary people relying on information that may not be so reliable. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, looks at how the market is responding to the flip-flop in headlines over the Strait of Hormuz and discusses whether investors should expect the market to take off once there is clarity on the war. He also discusses what's next for earnings season and looks at two business pivots involving name-brand stocks that have gone in very different directions.

D.R. Barton Jr., director of market research for the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, says he expects the market to continue its recovery through one more burst higher that lasts into the summer, but after that he is seeing "a bouncy, sideways market" with heightened volatility, swings reaching 20% up or down in a quarter. He is looking for "inflation-hedging names" for whatever happens coming out of the current cease-fire in the war in Iran, noting that he expects inflation to dampen the economy and the market for the remainder of the year. Isaac Wakszol, chief executive officer at Activest Wealth Management, says investors need to guard against "this time is different" thinking in wanting to make portfolio changes due to the recent increase in inflation and oil prices, war in Iran and more. He notes that in the market's last 100 years, there have been 17 recessions and 20 wars and that markets have always recovered, "and we're on Day 40-something of this war and the market is higher."  In preaching discipline, Wakszol did note that 2026 into 2027 will be "a year of reckoning" for artificial intelligence, to see if it can deliver on its promises, because failing that could dampen market enthusiasm. In The NAVigator segment, Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that the fear-based selling that gripped the market around the start of war in Iran created a "generic widening" of discounts for closed-end funds. Shaker, a "discount-capture investor," says that widening — and the current recovery — was caused mostly by "the irrational effects of excessive selling pressures overall," which means that the bad news is creating buy-the-dips opportunities rather than fundamental problems for closed-end funds.

Gabe Diederich, portfolio manager at Baird, says that long-term indicators for inflation haven't moved much, which is good news for bond investors interested in capturing steady income for the long haul. He says in the Big Interview that he expects the Federal Reserve to wait on rate changes — so long as the economy and labor market remains stable — until there is more clarity and certainty in the numbers. Diederich says that fundamentals for bonds across the spectrum look solid, but he says "There's a great story for the tax advantage of municipal bonds," and that investors should look to take advantage of the tax benefits to generate real income and stabilize portfolios. Kevin Callahan, founding partner, Fairway Capital Management — portfolio manager for the Fairway Private Equity & Venture Capital Opportunities Fund — talks about whether concerns in the private credit markets are bleeding into the venture-capital and private-equity space, and what lies ahead for alternatives markets, particularly as older technology investments made just a few years ago are looking less attractive in the face of artificial-intelligence developments today.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, highlights the brand new Morgan Stanley Bitcoin Trust, and what the entrance of one of the world's biggest money managers to the crypto ETF space — introducing the lowest-cost spot bitcoin fund — means for investors and the industry.

Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says that the beating that technology stocks have taken has made the sector ideal for patient investors hunting bargains. He says technology as a sector is now trading at a 20% discount to the firm's composite of fair values, and there have only been two other times since 2010 when tech has been that undervalued. As a result, he's looking at some big-name companies — including a few Magnificent Seven stocks and some beaten-down software names — as buys now. Author John Coleman discusses his new book, "Good Money: Six Steps to Building a Financial Life with Purpose," which goes beyond just the money aspects to look at the work and social elements that will help make people happier and healthier, particularly as they transition more towards the retirement and slow-down phases of life. Also, Chip Lupo, analyst at WalletHub, goes "Off The News" discussing Federal Reserve data released earlier this month which showed that total consumer credit increased at a 2.2% annual rate in February. WalletHub's analysis showed that, if the numbers are not adjusted for inflation, credit card debt as of February 2026 was at a new record high, topping last February by 3%. (Without the inflation adjustment, total credit card debt in February 2026 was effectively flat year over year.)

Journalist Kit Chellel discusses his new book, released today, "Lucky Devils: The True Story of Three Rebel Gamblers Who Beat the Odds and Changed the Game," the tale of 1970s gamblers who applied early computer technology to  gambling at a time when the smallest computers were still the size of a suitcase. They created "advantage playing," and faced issues with casinos, the mob and more, but also laid the groundwork for a lot of what is happening now and being revisited in prediction markets and more. Heather Hunt-Ruddy, divisional president at Wells Fargo Advisors, discusses the firm's recent white paper on building and maintaining generational wealth, and how to accomplish transfers without spoiling the next generations or setting the grandkids up to become spoiled and irresponsible. In the Market Call, Joe Rinaldi, president and chief financial officer at Quantum Financial Advisors talks about both individual stocks and ETFs, discusses when he leans toward using one over the other, and says he is looking for opportunities now where he is being paid to wait for the market to recover and move back toward record highs.

Abe Sheikh, chief investment officer at Cordoba Advisory Partners, says that if tensions in Iran cool and oil prices settle down — which the futures market is saying is likely by year's end — says that the current spike in inflation is temporary and the risk of runaway inflation is much lower than it was during Covid times. With that in mind, he thinks current events are more setting up investment opportunities than stopping investors and getting them to panic away from equities and heightened volatility. With consumer sentiment at record lows — but consumer confidence improving ever so slightly — in March, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses why feelings make headlines but fundamentals make for better investment prospects. That's why he's leaning into some of the market's most beaten down sectors; he discusses his take on the private credit market and on how to lean into it for better yields without getting tripped up by the current-event risk, as well as what he expects from the Federal Reserve as it increasingly finds itself pinched between its dual mandates. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs takes a victory lap on his pre-IPO take that put $BIRD in #TheDangerZone before it even launched. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question asking for clarification on how sequence-of-inflation risk works and how it differs in certain key ways from sequence-of-return risk. He has previously said, many times, that his big fear personally is sequence-of-return risk, and has said lately that prolonged inflation should have many people worrying about how it will impact their retirement if it remains sticky for the next few years.

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, says that the economy is on solid grounds and that earnings expectations are up, which has prompted him to stand fast on the 7,700 target he put on the Standard & 500 entering the year, and he expects the market to bounce back hard once headlines ease up and investors get more clarity. Krumpelman says he expects the market to broaden out, but he says it will be a "RAD" year, for "risk awareness and diversification," noting that investors will want to get portfolios back to their asset allocation plans and diversify to avoid concentration risk.  With the market kicking business-development companies in the teeth, John Cole Scott , president of CEF Advisors — and chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — grinds through his firm's "artificial-intelligence risk scoring" data to find BDCs that have been hurt by headlines without holding tainted portfolios. The result, he says, are two funds that have seen their valuations — but not their underlying portfolios — hurt by the headlines, making them underpriced value plays now. In the Market Call, James Abate, head of fundamental strategies for Horizon Investments — portfolio manager for the Centre Funds — is also looking for areas of the market that have solid long-term prospects but that are facing current disruptions.

Mark Yusko, chief investment officer at Morgan Creek Capital Management, says global uncertainty "is at the highest level it has ever been," which is why investors have been leaning into quality and other factors they understand and are comfortable with, but he says value-oriented investors should be looking for less-traveled paths, searching for opportunities where they feel really uncomfortable "and where it's hard to pull the trigger." Yusko discusses ETFs in the Market Call, but also talks current events, noting that "Volatility is disagreement about future outcomes." With the "ETF of the Week," Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to an actively managed municipal bond fund as a tax-time diversion, but he notes that the low-cost fund with a solid tax-free yield deserves long-term consideration too. Jamie Hopkins, co-author of "Your Retirement Sketchbook: 125 Retirement Planning Lessons from Financial Experts," discusses the new book, holes many people leave in their financial planning and how to take charge of the process and fill in the gaps.

Wayne Wicker, president of Opal Capital, says investors "are bombarded every day with news items," and while those things are interesting, they're also "meaningless" for most people with a long-term horizon. He suggests "looking through the noise," and notes that in the cacophony of current events, he sees opportunities in mid-cap stocks and in some areas and individual issues where the market has overreacted in recent weeks. Personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor discusses the importance of looking more deeply into target-date funds — a default-choice investment that most investors pick without giving it much thought — noting that the way those funds work could leave investors subject to significant sequence-of-return risk, particularly if they are Baby Boomers planning to retire soon. O'Connor, who wrote about the subject in a recent New York Times piece, isn't saying investors should avoid target-date funds but instead advocates for a level of management and involvement that many users don't normally apply to these one-size-fits-all portfolios. Geoff Garbacz, principal at Quantitative Partners, discusses how record levels of short interest are changing the market broadly and the prospects for a lot of stocks, as he goes both long and short in the Market Call.

Joseph Shaposhnik, founder/chief executive officer of Rainwater Equity — manager of the Rainwater ETF, which focuses on buying into recurring revenue models at reasonable prices — says that the software industry "is embroiled into a controversy that is very difficult to dispute until we have [multiple] quarters of these businesses putting up very, very strong results." But because he expects those results from software firms, he thinks the market has beaten up software stocks as if they are all going to fail, making them bargain priced now with a potential rebound in sight. Shaposhnik talks about how recurring-revenue stories lead to more predictable results, which should give investors some comfort against uncertain times. With the average price on a new car now hovering near $50,000 at a time when Americans are being squeezed by higher prices at the gas pump, Robert Steenburgh, chief executive officer at AutoPayPlus talks about how consumers should be dealing with the challenges of financing a car, particularly at a time when the average monthly payment is now $735 — and more than $1,000 for 20 percent of new-car buyers — with teh average loan term now stretched to 84 months. Another way that consumers are finding their finances stretched is in home buying, and Ted Shanahan, chairman of Blueprint Financial Group, discusses the latest data from Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress study, which showed that parents now play a bigger role in helping children buy homes, and say that providing that assistance is as or more important than paying for college. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about closed-end fund discounts, how they put stocks on sale and why discounts are appealing even when their benefits aren't readily evident when researching a fund or holding it in a portfolio.

Neeraj Khemlani discusses his new book, "The Coffee Can Investor: A Stock-Picker's Journey to Build Generational Wealth" — out this week — which tells the story of picking a few stocks and stashing them away in the same way that some people hide valuables for decades in old coffee cans. It delves into portfolio manager Matt Ankrum, who took the practice and super-charged it by researching hundred-baggers — long-term winners that deliver above-market returns — who aims to turn his own children into centi-millionaires by the time they retire. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how he has responded to volatility in oil markets since war started in Iran by going long on oil futures using a popular ETF and shorting airline stocks. Marolia also looks into the investing opportunities in space, noting that they go far beyond the current Artemis II moon mission and the public stock launch of SpaceX, which is expected to give the company a market capitalization beyond $2 trillion when shares launch this summer. Peter Tuz, chief executive officer at Chase Investment Counsel -- co manager of the Chase Growth Fund -- talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices now, and why he mostly has rotated away from the Magnificent Seven stocks in favor of small companies with solid long-term potential that the market has yet to recognize.

Ryan Isherwood, chief investment officer at Significance Capital, says that the stock market's momentum has not been broken even as it backed away from recent record highs, which means that stocks have been correcting since last October. That makes it more of a time correction — which can last longer — than a short, steep price drop. That said, Isherwood noted that there are strong signs that the market could resume its long-term upward trend and bullish bias once the geo-political pullback ends as there is more clarity in the headlines. Yelena Maleyev, senior economist at KPMG Economics, discusses the March 2026 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today, which showed that  the consensus forecast among economists has deteriorated sharply in the last few weeks, with two-thirds of the group expecting a reduction of GDP this year, and in many cases that economic activity slowdown will be big, but will stop short of recession conditions. Nearly 70% of the economists said the broadening of geopolitical conflicts is the "greatest downside risk to the  economy over the next 12 months;" just 8% felt that way about geopolitical worries just three months ago. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a diversified natural resources index fund as his "ETF of the Week," noting that a multi-sector approach involving upstream energy companies, agricultural companies and more can be a good diversifier — while providing a decent yield — in current conditions. Plus Matt Weyandt, a client portfolio manager on the listed real assets team at Nuveen, discusses how a "Halo theme" — heavy asset, low obsolescence — positions investments in real estate, infrastructure and commodities to perform well despite global headlines that are buffeting markets. Specifically, Weyandt notes that location-specific hard assets  with contractual income streams are built to deliver regardless of the broad market conditions.

David Chavern, president and chief executive officer for the American Council of Life Insurers (ACLI), discusses how insurance companies — who have been investing in private credit situations long before those investments were available to the general public — are withstanding the risks that critics say could cause the next financial crisis. Chavern also discusses the changing role of insurance, and specifically annuities, in financial planning as the last generations to get pensions are reaching retirement age and the next group of savers is looking for consistent, stable income later in life. Howard Dvorkin, chairman at Debt.com, discusses "pig butchering," a sophisticated financial scheme where criminals build a relationship with victims online and then persuade them to invest in fake crypto or other fraudulent schemes. The bad guys' efforts have been bolstered by the development of artificial intelligence, making it easier to connect with targets — often the elderly or young, naive newbie investors — for them to "fatten them up" before slaughter.   Stash Graham, managing director at Graham Capital Wealth Management, talks stocks in the Market Call.  In an issue related to the private-credit concerns discusses in the Chaven interview, Graham takes a particular interest now in some of the business-development companies that have been tarnished by recent lending issues and portfolio re-valuation problems, noting that their are solid long-term business reasons to ride out the current headlines expecting a long-term payoff.

Arin Dube, an economics professor at UMass-Amherst, discusses his new book, author, "The Wage Standard: What's Wrong in the Labor Market and How to Fix It," noting that the federal minimum wage standard is so low that it's like having no standard at all, prompting many states to pass their own rules. Further, he notes that real wage growth happens mostly in times of full employment, so he is optimistic that sound policy and job demand can help fix problems in the current system. On way some employers get around minimum wage rules is in jobs that involve tipping and WalletHub analyst Chip Lupo, discusses the site's annual tipping survey, which found that 81% of people think tipping has gotten out of control. More than 2 in 5 Americans think the U.S. should ban tips altogether.  Stephen Dissette, founder of Stephen D. Dissette & Associates discusses how retirement savers can add "operational readiness" to financial plans, making more of their savings and getting more functionality out of their assets while easing shortfall worries.  Plus, Chuck goes off the news to discuss Monday's announcement from the U.S. Department of Labor's Employee Benefits Security Administration on how it plans to expand access to alternative investments -- including private credit, cryptocurrency and more -- in 401(k) plans. The proposed rule lowers litigation risk and clears some regulatory burdens, lowering the hurdles for putting more alternatives into retirement accounts, but Chuck says it also raises some concerns and red flags.

Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says that "when the Iran situation calms down ... we're going to see massive multiple expansion and the geopolitical risk is going to drop." As that story plays out, Thorne says to buy areas that will help build the U.S., and to buy into electricity generation to help support the artificial-intelligence boom. He also said that expects the Trump Administration to try to "run the economy hot" once tensions have ended, in order to help deal with the deficit. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is also looking for a potential pick-up once the market can take its attention off of the war and the rapidly changing market sentiments in the battle between artificial intelligence and software. He says investors should back away from the headlines and keep a sharper watch on the job market, inflation and interest rates, which have the potential to take the market's focus off of the earnings numbers that drove gains in 2025. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, says that he expects a number of high-flying companies to miss their earnings projections in the next quarter, noting that Wall Street keeps "two sets of numbers, the one they show the world and the real number," and that when the street figures out the real numbers, stocks like Solventum and Advanced Micro Devices are looking at big price adjustments. Plus, Blake Gunderson of Northwestern Mutual Rockwall/East Texas discusses Northwestern Mutual's 2026 Planning & Progress study, which showed that a sizeable number of Americans — most notably younger adults — feel like they are financially behind and are investing in or considering high-risk speculative assets such as cryptocurrencies, prediction markets and sports betting as ways to play catch up.

Jessamyn Norton, senior managing director at Clearstead Trust, says we're in a "one-variable market," with the price of oil being the only thing currently moving prices, and with the commodity likely to be the determining factor daily moves until the Straits Times of Hormuz reopens. So long as the concern lifts and other variables come back into play soon, if oil concerns linger and the market stays below its 200-day moving average, she says the Standard & Poors 500 could be in for a big decline if it can't hold around the 6,000 level. Kim Flynn, president at XA Investments, a firm that specializes in alternative investments, says recent private-credit bad news events have widened discounts and raised concerns over business-development companies and interval funds, but have likely created a buy-the-dip moment in the industry.  In the Market Call, Michael O'Keefe, chief of staff at CAZ Investments, talks about his long-term thematic approach to stocks and ETFs, including how he is mixing the long-term uptrends in artificial intelligence with the more-recent downturn in software stocks. He also discusses why he currently owns none of the Magnificent Seven stocks.

Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager for the Midas Funds, says that while war typically is good for precious metals generally, the case for gold miners being able to deliver outsized returns is particularly strong now. Moreover, Winmill says the forces that contributed to gold being up more than 50 percent in the last 12 months — despite being down more than 10 percent in the last 30 days — are intact, and while war in Iran and geopolitics generally are creating a downturn, the longer-term forces will return once there is more clarity about economies around the globe. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to a relatively young, actively managed, concentrated, equity-income fund that uses an options/derivative strategy as his ETF of the Week, noting that it's an addition to a portfolio that adds stability, but that should be used in moderation. Plus, Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — who was the show's first-ever Market Call guest in 2012 — returns to Money Life, bringing his news-sensitive investment style with plenty of news to talk about. McIntyre was last on the show nearly a year ago, when he was positive on energy and oil stocks; he discusses where they fit in a portfolio now, amid the turmoil in the oil business due to the war in Iran.

Danielle Labotka, behavioral scientist at Morningstar, discusses her research into how retirees withdraw money from their lifetime savings accounts and found that about half rely exclusively on simple approaches, like calculating expected expenses or taking required minimum distributions. As a result, she says, retirees are short-changing themselves, leaving money in accounts and cutting back on needs and wants rather than doing the math to come up with something more tailored to their situation. Worse, she says, 98 percent of retirees say they have no intention of changing their strategy. Speaking of spending strategies, Brian Vines, an analyst at Consumer Reports and co-host of the Talking Carts podcast about shopping, discusses their comparison of the most and least expensive supermarket chains. Chuck, who considers himself a careful shopper, learns that his preferred chain finishes next-to-last in the study, so the conversation turns to how consumers can do more and better with their money if they are careful, shop around and know pricing. In the Book Interview, Brett Steenbarger, an educator and authority on trading, discusses his new book, "Positive Trading Psychology: Turning personal strengths into trading strengths." Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question on sequence-of-inflation risk, why it has just recently been coming to the fore and how it could be impacting retirees and near-retirees now.

Alex Coffey, senior trading and derivative strategist at Charles Schwab, says that since the conflict in Iran began, there has been more of a tug-of-war market and that the bears have been winning the battle, and while the decline has not been swift, the longer duration of the turmoil the more traders and investors are on edge. Coffey notes that the market's short-term trend is bearish, but the market is testing the longer-term 200-day moving average and the longer-term uptrend may be breaking.    Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says in the Big Interview that investors need to recognize that there is always drama going on around the markets, and that the concerns create worries, but "You generally do best by doing the least, if you have a well diversified portfolio and a strategy of how your assets are invested and you stick to that strategy." He discusses how investors are dealing with the war and much more, and how calm is the personal commodity that most people should be investing in right now.    Financial journalist Allan Sloan discusses how one share of stock in a Detroit bank — purchased for about 40 bucks a half century ago so that he would be allowed into the company's annual meetings — has turned into about $5,000, highlighting the power of dividend reinvestments and time. Sloan — who made several small stock purchases in his wife's name over the years in order to access meetings and information that non-shareholders would have been excluded from — talks about how reinvesting turned insignificant payments into something much more meaningful.

Sean Clark, chief investment officer at Clark Capital Management Group, says that while markets tend to whipsaw around headline events like the war in Iran, the initial market reaction — historically a decline of about 7 percent — gives way to a bounce-back that helps investors a few months after the turmoil starts.  As a result, he's suggesting that investors "be cautious with their allocations and don't make any big changes" despite their nervousness over the news cycle. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that recent layoffs at Meta Platforms are a signal of bigger troubles brewing, and that broader tech layoffs at companies like Oracle and Amazon are a sign of rouble. While not expecting stocks like Meta to crater, Trainer makes the case that as a weaker player in the artificial-intelligence game, the company could be looking at a lot of capital expenditures that don't necessarily boost the bottom line. As a result, he pegs the stock's value at hundreds of dollars less than its current trading range. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that Micron Technologies has the fundamentals to be a darling on Wall Street, but the market sentiment has soured on the company, dropping the stock prive hard despite recent guidance that was well beyond what analysts' have been estimating for the company. In "The Week That Is," he also discusses higher oil prices and how consumers should expect them to stay higher for about two months — noting Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's quote about 50 days of discomfort on pricing — before expecting substantive change. He also discusses the latest wave of artificial intelligence that now seems to be taking over thinking that was current as recently as a week or two ago, and how the fast developments are an issue investors need to be aware of, even if they should not be too reactive to them.

Nick Venditti, senior portfolio manager and head of the municipal fixed income team at Allspring Global Investments, says that in a world worried about the macro picture and geopolitics, municipal bonds are a safe haven that is almost completely unaffected by global strife. The sector is delivering reasonable yields and is "fundamentally very strong from a bottom-up credit perspective," Venditti says, calling it a "no-brainer, free lunch kind of trade" for investors to move from money-market funds to short-term muni bonds, where rates are better and tax benefits create a boost on return.   John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors — the Chairman of the Active Investment Company Institute — says that closed-end funds are being buffeted in two directions due to current headlines, with war in Iran impacting net asset values and anchored interest rates impacting levered closed-end funds, with discounts moving as a result. He put his firm's "Trifecta analysis" to work, with four funds to consider now: ticker symbols AFB, ARDC, CSQ and MEGI.    Author Lee Freeman-Shor discusses "Stock Market Maestros: The Winning Habits, Strategies and Mindsets of the World's Best Investors," discusses how he identified a group of lesser-known investment stars and what they do that makes them great, and that individuals can do to learn from and replicate those results.

Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer at Merk Investments and the Merk Funds, says that the Federal Reserve's Wednesday disclosures were not a surprise, but do suggest a bit of a ho-hum attitude that the market has over the situation in Iran. Mostly, he says, the market is pricing things as if the tensions and resulting impacts on the oil market will remain short-term disruptions. He discusses his expectations for oil, god and more in the Big Interview.    Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also looks at gold, with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and does it in a way that is unusual for him, because it focuses more on the fund's expenses than his typical weekly selection.     Alex Morris, chief executive officer at F/m investments, talks about the firm's filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to tokenize its Treasury fund, a first-of-its-kind move that has potential to change the way ETFs trade, making them directly accessible on the blockchain. He discusses the industry implications but also why this is the obvious next step in integrating crypto into the rest of the financial world.    Plus, Chuck filled up his gas tank yesterday, and the price was 90 cents higher than the last time he was at the pump. Rather than complain, he discussed the situation with people at nearby pumps, and he describes the politically diverse conversation and his takeaways from it.

Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says that a short conflict in Iran remains his base case, noting that the war has been proceeding at a slightly faster pace than he might have expected. Facing a limited but intense war with economic consequences, Christopher suggested investors should rebalance a portfolio more than make moves designed to try to take advantage of short swings caused by the conflict. If the Iran War lasts more than a few months or pushes oil prices past $150 per barrel, Christopher says that could change the game and create a deeper, lingering downturn. MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends discusses the thinking behind his recent column on why he doesn't expect oil prices to top $150 per barrel. Dave Brown, chief executive officer at Hays Staffing discusses the firm's 2026 Salary & Hiring Trends Report, which talked about how disruptive artificial intelligence has become for the job market. The annual study showed that A.I. is changing not only the way employers are hiring but the way workers are applying for jobs, and why that doesn't necessarily improve conditions for either side. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about his side gig as a lacrosse referee, and about finding the right side job in general.  

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that rising oil prices and higher inflation have increased the possibility of a recession. While she says the operating outlook for investors is that the war in Iran will last a few more weeks, with oil starting to flow again quickly, which will make current events quickly forgettable as the economy returns to its pre-war growth path. But she notes that the path is uncertain, and the longer war persists and sours economic numbers, the more it draws out potential problems. "The challenge," Garretty says, "is the recovery ... if it doesn't look like what everyone expects."    Veteran technical analyst Adam Grimes,  president of MarketLife, says the market has reached "a point where I would want to be raising capital, where I would want to be defensive with long exposure. This is not a point where I want to put capital to work." Grimes says he sees the potential for a bad short-term downturn, noting that "[my] definition of bad is 50 to 60 percent." Grimes acknowledged that he sounds "like the raving crazy person at the top of the mountain," but he says that market cycles and enormous moves do repeat itself and the market is making a big decline a more-realistic possibility, which hasn't made him move out of the market but has made him more defensive.    Mark Burrage, senior vice president at PenFed Home at PenFed Credit Union, discusses the wide range of factors that are making homebuyers uncomfortable, and what families can do to overcome the issues they are facing in buying a home.

Bill Davis, portfolio manager for Stance Capital and the Hennessy Sustainable ETF, says that current events have contributed to some market rotation back towards mega-cap tech names, because the market views them as comparative safe names that are not correlated to oil prices. That represents what he expects to be a short-term reversal in trends because the market had been moving broadening out, with the Magnificent 7 stocks struggling. He expects that trend to resume and continue as the headline risk subsides, when he expects the market to continue moving the market away from communications services and big tech toward more defensive and value-oriented stocks.    David Trainer, president at New Constructs, focuses The Danger Zone on "residual value guarantees" — which hide debt off-balance sheets allowing companies to spend money and to have liabilities that it mostinvestors will not know about until or unless a problem makes them surface. He says the says the phenomenon is particularly acute with artificial-intelligence companies, where a lot of money is being invested into construction that is backed by residual-value guarantees, and he singles out Oracle and Meta Platforms as two examples where the practice adds to New Constructs' unfavorable opinion of the stocks.     Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that he expects oil prices to remain elevated until there is more clarity in the Strait of Hormuz, but that prices should snap back quickly to lower levels once the supply chain is clearly restored. In waiting for that clarity, he suggests oil tankers as a play on the situation, noting that it's a picks-and-shovels play on the industry, and that the tankers are making money even as they sit filled with oil waiting for resolution. He also discusses why Microsoft's recent decline is not something long-term investors should worry about, and more in "The Week That Is."

Robert Gilhooly, senior emerging markets economist at Aberdeen Investments, discusses the adage that the first shots of war are a time to be buying investments, and he says investors might want to take more of a wait-and-see approach, at least until they get more clarity on how the war in Iran will impact oil prices. While President Trump has moved to keep the price of oil below $100 a barrel, Gilhooly makes a case that if the tensions drag out, oil could quickly rise to $175 a barrel, a level high enough that it might cause a global recession. In the end, he expects a quick return to pre-war economic activity levels, including one interest-rate cut later this year -- if hostilities subside quickly.    Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott says that headline risks are diverting attention from a bond market that, in the long run, should be driven by positive economic conditions and decelerating inflation. The war in Iran is creating what he thinks will be more temporary conditions that scare investors but that don't amount to much long-term change in the market's outlook. LeBas expects corporate profits this year to be roughly 12%, which is strong enough to help the corporate bond market, which he also thinks will be buoyed by the hyper-scalers needing to borrow money to put it to work to keep up in the development race.     Bernie Horn, manager of the Polaris Global Value fund, returns to the Market Call to discuss stocks and international markets in the face of current events. Like Bill Smead -- a value manager who was on the show earlier this week -- he talks about how value investing suffered while the stock market was in hot-growth mode led by the Magnificent Seven. Now, however, market valuations are high, which is setting up a rotation that he says will favor value-minded investors moving forward.

Jay Jacobs, U.S. head of equity ETFs at BlackRock, says that the artificial-intelligence revolution has delivered massive spending, but not at levels that have been spent relative to gross domestic product, during other generational shifts like the introduction of the automobile. As a result, while he understands the bubble concerns, he expects AI to continue holding its place among BlackRock's global thematic trends. Also on that list of trends is geopolitical shifts, which were well underway before current events evolved into a war in Iran; because those trends were in place before today's developments, Jacobs says he doesn't expect markets or outlooks to be dramatically impacted by headline events. Jacobs also discusses the new iShares Staked Ethereum fund, a new development in the crypto space, which the firm is launching today. Wade Pfau,  professor of retirement income, at The American College of Financial Services, discusses his revised, third edition of "Retirement Planning Guidebook: Navigating the Important Decisions for Retirement Success," which includes a new section covering sequence-of-inflation risk. Pfau says that concern -- which financial advisers mostly overlooked -- is particularly important now given growing concerns about sticky inflation, and that it may be as important for retirement savers as sequence-of-return risk, which Chuck typically says is his biggest retirement-savings worry. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into global turmoil this week, picking a diversified international fund as his ETF of the Week.

Bill Smead, manager of the Smead Value fund, says that by nearly every indicator, the stock market is at valuation levels seldom seen in American history, with the Standard & Poor's 500 trading "at more than 220% of GDP, the most dangerous number, virtually, we have ever seen." That does not make him want to get out of the market, however, as he says in the Market Call that "the problem everybody's got is that most of the money is in the place that is likely to do the poorest over the next 10 years, because it has done the best the last 15 years, and that is our opportunity."    Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says that investors have good reason to be skittish right now because the market has dropped off of highs, but he doesn't expect things to get really bad so that further market drops are an opportunity to dig in and make tactical purchases. In The Big Interview, Cofrancesco talks about his concerns about inflation — which he calls "an insidious tax on the working class and the poor" — noting that if it stays higher for longer it can change retirement-spending trajectories that investors need to plan for.    Jennifer White, senior director, banking and payments intelligence at JD Power,  discusses the firm's recent report showing that the financial health of American consumers has reached a 12-month low. She notes that the firm is classifying more consumers as financially unhealthy, in large part due to the stubbornly high cost of consumer goods, noting that current events which could create a spike in oil prices and which threaten more inflation weren't yet factored into the numbers, making the outlook for consumers that much more troubling.

Kevin Mahn, president and chief investment officer at Hennion & Walsh, entered 2026 expecting more volatility from the market and geo-politicla events, and while he "didn't have war in Iran on his dance card," he doesn't think it will change the outcomes all that much. He expects oil markets, for example, to stabilize once investors are certain that the Straits of Hormuz have re-opened, and he thinks there is plenty of opportunity where money has been flowing, into areas like artificial-intelligence infrastructure. All in all, he expects the stock market to celebrate a fourth birthday for the current bull market.    Veteran trader Peter Robbins discusses his book, "The Trader's Journey: Navigating the Path to Trading Success," covering how important it is for traders — even investors who want to do modest amounts of transactions with a small percentage of their holdings — to find the system that works for them and their lifestyle, and he talks about how technology has changed trading, but how the evolution in artificial intelligence hasn't made it so that individual investors can't find a working path to success.     Allison Hadley discusses a study she did for PartnerCentric.com study looking at AI shopping trends, where she found that nearly half of Americans tried AI-powered shopping last year, buying an average of more than $400 in eight transactions, and nearly two-third of shoppers expect to embrace AI when shopping this year. Despite that advancement, she notes that only 13% of Americans trust AI completely in its shopping recommendations with more than 80 % of consumers verifying its suggestions independently.

Jim Masturzo, chief investment officer at Research Affiliates, says that "Volatility is just a reaction to something new, and something that has changed," which is why investors can expect a volatile market as it works through the start of the war in Iran. That said, he is not expecting the war to change much, other than increasing volatility, provided it does not last for a long stretch of time. Masturzo does think that current events will contribute to higher inflation, but he says that — whether the Federal Reserve likes it or not — a 3% inflation rate has become the norm and is likely to remain that way, in large part because the economy has shown that it can push through that level of inflation and continue growing.    Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, also digs in on inflation in "The Week That Is," noting that the upcoming inflation numbers will be the financial story of the week ahead, but also potentially for many consumers' financial lifetime, noting that if higher inflation becomes the norm, it dramatically changes the math for building a retirement-savings nestegg that can overcome longevity and purchasing-power risk. Marolia also discusses the early impacts of war in Iran on the market and how he expects it to play out in oil prices, as well as his sense on what's next for the Space X merger.    David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes a victory lap on some Danger Zone picks that have paid off, but where he believes there is significantly more trouble to come. It's a rogue's gallery of names like Affirm and Snap that all have fallen by at least 25% in 2026 and much further than that since their 52-week highs; Trainer notes that these stocks, and several others that he discusses, may look like bargains now that they have been beaten down, but warns that investors who buy now could be catching proverbial falling knives. Further, he says, there is no need to chase big losers in hopes of catching a turnaround.

Jim Welsh, the strategist behind the Macro Tides and Weekly Technical Review newsletters, says that the market's underlying strength won't stop a short, fast decline of as much as 7%, but it will provide strong resistance to a full-blown correction or bear market. Welsh notes that people fear that the economy will be severely disrupted because they remember oil shocks creating recessions in the 1970s, but oil prices have much less ability "to tip the economy into recession now," so he thinks the impact of current events will be less than most investors fear. Welsh has been forecasting a secular bear market — a long reversal of fortune for the stock market — for a few years now, and he still sees one coming, but he doesn't think that starts until "the next recession" creates a situation that stalls growth and disrupts the market. Amid all of those market worries and concerns, Ryan MacDonald, portfolio manager for the Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund, says that private real estate is "uniquely boring, in a good way." MacDonald, who also serves as chief investment officer at Bluerock, says that three painful years of interest rate changes have driven values down to where they are attractive. "Entry point is the single biggest driver of future value for private real estate returns" and, on an inflation-adjusted basis, the market is now approaching valuation levels "not seen since the depths of the 2008 financial crisis." Jaime Seale discusses the 2026 home renovation trends survey from Clever Real Estate, which showed that half of all homeowners say their home is facing necessary repairs or renovations that they can't afford given current economic and personal conditions. Nearly six in 10 homeowners have nothing saved for emergency repairs , which is particularly alarming because 85 percent of homeowners spent money last year on an unplanned repair.

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs commodity-oriented ETFs — says that war in the Middle East will have mostly short- and medium-term impacts on markets, commodities and inflation, noting that "If you're not already long energy, you're taking a pretty big risk by buying it now." He says he will be watching fertilizer prices — because Iran is a large producer of urea, a key ingredient in fertilizers — expecting to see some inflationary pressures, but he thinks that, too, will pass quickly. Teucrium also runs crypto funds and Gilbertie also gives his take on how leading currencies will get through the current "crypto winter." With current events in the Middle East impacting his thinking, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a large-cap, low-volatility index fund for the "ETF of the Week," noting that the fund may not be the highest of flyers but it has a history of softening the blow of market downturns and troubles. Rod Yancy, founder of the Oath Money and Meaning Institute, discusses research which found that healthcare costs — premium, prescriptions, long-term care and more — are the top financial worry of American retirees entering 2026, but which also showed that a solid majority of retirees have a positive outlook this year despite current economic and geopolitical concerns. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about using artificial intelligence to improve personal portfolio results.

Louie Navellier, president of Navellier & Associates, says that while it is early to make any definitive statement on outcomes of military actions in the Middle East, he believes the energy industry narrowly and the domestic stock markets broadly are winning as a result of these actions. He makes the case that the dollar historically strengthens in times of conflicts, and that domestic markets enter these times much stronger than foreign markets; he's expecting the stock market to produce "a great year," though he is emphasizing gold stocks to get through and past the current headline events. Author Kim Lankford, author of "Medicare 101: A Crash Course in Federal Health Insurance," discusses the relationship consumers should have with the Medicare system, its future when it comes to financing and how to navigate the morass of rules and regulations to avoid a lifetime of higher premiums and health-care costs. Chuck and his wife Gail are nearing the age when they must make Medicare decisions and enroll in the program, so they are the real-life examples of the considerations consumers have to make. Plus, Allison Hadley, discusses a survey she did on worker happiness for Howdy.com, which found that more than half of American employees consider work to be "just a paycheck." Happiness at work involves many factors, Hadley said, noting that 93% of happy workers have clear ways to succeed on the job, compared to just 52% of unhappy workers, who feel they don't have much opportunity to advance personally or professionally.