Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Chuck became a grandfather for the first time on Sunday and has been planning how he will help his grandson financially for years, but today he chats with financial adviser and author Chris Carosa, author of "From Cradle to Retirement," about "Child IRAs," and how he plans to create an income for the baby and then invest that money into a Roth IRA to provide decades of tax-free growth. Carosa also discusses the new "Trump accounts," which give newborns $1,000 and allow parents to contribute more, and discusses how he would prioritize saving for a child's future. Sudipto Banerjee, global retirement strategist at T. Rowe Price, discusses the firm's research into retirement savers which showed that younger savers tend to follow a homogeneous path as they start out, but  older investors — while generally getting more conservative as they age — take personalized, diverse paths   as they age and get into their retirement years. In the Market Call, Aniket Ullal, head of ETF research at CFRA Research, discusses exchange-traded funds and why the firm's methodology has him high on developed international funds right now.

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that with inflation running above the Federal Reserve's targets — forcing both the Fed funds 10-year Treasury rates higher — there's room for the Fed to cut rates but not much room for the market to respond to it. As a result, he's saying the market has room to broaden out, with small caps likely to be helped out by upcoming Fed cuts, but not much upside if large-cap stocks have to keep being the engine for growth. Hyman says that recession is unlikely for several quarters, as there is room for modest earnings growth to continue. Russell Rhoads, associate clinical professor of financial management at Indiana University — cohost of the Academic Market Insights videos on YouTube —  says he expects the economy to be sluggish while rate cuts work their way into the next cycle. He says that he'd be looking to underperforming stocks and areas of the market to take the lead as the economy changes and, like Hyman, believes there is potential for small-caps to step forward, helped out by the changing rate environment. In the Market Call, Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund, discusses his long-term value approach and how he's looking for stocks that have been beaten up by bad news that have a chance to regain their good name and recapture their market value.

Crit Thomas, global market strategist at Touchstone Investments says the market can move higher — though with a path that is more bumpy — and the economy can avoid recession, but he also notes that the market is particularly hard to read because current conditions are dramatically different than many past situations. He cites a lot of reasons — from index concentration to fallout from the pandemic — for why looking back at market data seldom yields accurate forecasting right now. Thomas does expect a market slowdown, as earnings have been impressive but growth has been muted, which should make for slower markets ahead. Sarah Wolfe, senior economist and strategist for thematic and macro investing at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management — the chairperson of the Economic Policy Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the NABE survey released today, which showed a record number of economists view current economic policy as too stimulative. The economists viewed tariffs as the biggest long-term obstacle to growth  rather than a stimulator for economic activity, and they also see recession coming into focus in the long-term, noting that current conditions have backed off any downturn to where economists now don't expect to see one until late in 2026 or in 2027. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts Five9 back in the Danger Zone because the company has fallen back into the territory of a "zombie stock," effectively due to run out of money in the next two years. Guske makes a case that the stock — currently valued at roughly $28 a share — is worth maybe six bucks, though he makes it clear he could make a case for it to go to zero. Plus, Dan Skubiz, chief investment officer and senior portfolio manager at F/m Investments, talks small-cap stocks in the Money Life Market Call.

 Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, is concerned about economic sluggishness and "how the world is going to look and who is going to win" after tariff and rate changes fully play out. Coupled with a stock market where he sees equities as overpriced, that leaves Gayle wanting to be fully diversified, including a full allocation to domestic bonds but also international stocks, where he finds compelling values that he thinks can continue to run. Gayle says that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates soon, but "anything the Fed does today takes at least nine months to work," so he thinks it will take that long for the market to get some clarity; as a result, he wants to stay invested and buy any dips while waiting for opportunities to become more apparent.    Xander Gray, chief executive at XG Capital Strategies, says that current price levels are high compared to moving averages which suggests that there might be a consolidation or pullback in the offing. Gray — who was last on the show late in 2024, when he called for a market downturn and a recession — says spending and other factors have helped to hold off the recession, though the numbers are showing signs of a weakening that makes the market's current rally hard to trust.     Mitchel Penn, managing director of equity research for Oppenheimer & Co., says that business-development companies have moved past concerns about a spike in credit losses and are now "fairly valued" by the market, meaning that their biggest potential gains for the remainder of the year will come from simply capturing dividend payouts. That's not bad, especially because he expects payouts to remain in the high single-digit range, even after likely interest rate cuts that will carry into 2026.

Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of business journalism's highest honor, the Loeb Award, says in his latest piece for Barron's that no investment strategy works forever, and that time is now up on the Magnificent Seven stocks. Sloan notes that during the first seven months of 2025, NVidia and Microsoft accounted for more than half of the gain of the entire Standard & Poor's return, but that Apple "was totally rotten and knocked 18 percent off the S&P's return." His point is that most of the seven stocks that have been driving the market for the last few years "are now hitting below their weight," and the top stocks are now losing ground as a group to the index/market itself. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a high-income fund that invests in options on bitcoin -- and that yields a whopping 27 percent -- his ETF of the Week. The fund is relatively new and just topped $500 million in assets, and Rosenbluth says it can be an allocation choice for investors who might otherwise avoid cryptocurrency because they want investments that produce income. In the Market Call, Cole Smead, portfolio manager at Smead Capital Management, talks about the firm's approach to value investing and what is standing out during a period where he says market leadership is going through a rotation.

Lawrence McDonald, creator of The Bear Traps Report, says that as "tertiary assets" like meme stocks and momentum plays have started to break down in the last week, it's a sign that volatility will pick up and that the market  is "coming into a 10 to 20 percent pullback in the next month to month and a half." McDonald says that the selloff will be part of a rotation, that the market broadly can recover but with new leadership. He is worried about the potential for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates before inflation has been killed off, which he says will force investors into "portfolios that are much more focused on hard assets." Dan Sotiroff, senior manager research analyst at Morningstar, discusses this week's news that Vanguard is opening ETF versions of three popular, actively managed stock funds, and talks about the mechanics of the new issues but also what the news means for the broader fund industry. And with Chuck about to become a first-time grandfather, he chats with Matt Gellene, head of consumer investments at Bank of America, about what families can and should do to save and invest for raising children, paying for college and more, and for helping youngsters develop healthy attitudes about money.

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that there are signs that the economy is slowing, but he believes rate cuts can help the economy keep earnings growth going and can forestall any recession. "Betting against things to get better over the long run is not a very smart bet," Stone says, so he's suggesting investors don't let worries get the best of them now. Stone says that "A bet on Europe is a bet against technology," so while he understands concerns that investors have with valuations — particularly with the prices of tech stocks — he is not tilting in directions that might move him away from what has been working during the current bull run. Avi Gilburt, founder of ElliottWave Trader, does think the bull market will be coming to an end — and a long, slow, difficult end at that — but he says the signs of the bear market he has been anticipating for several years now are not clear yet. "Until the market gives us the sign that a bear market has begun," Gilburt says, "upside is still very much intact,m but you need to be very cautious as you approach the market over the coming years." He discusses the signs he is looking for and just how ugly he thinks the eventual downturn will get. Corrin Maier, vice president at TruStage, discusses "payment-protection products," a form of insurance that consumers can make on big-ticket purchases that can protect them in the event of job loss or other hardship. She helps consumers determine whether these options are worth their fees.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group, says that he expects the stock market to go through "a 4% to 6% normal, mild pullback" in short order, a downturn that he says is likely to be good for the market, helping it get ready to benefit from positive economic news and an eventual cut in interest rates. Detrick says that he expects developed Europe to remain strong, and he believes investors who are heeding market worries should rebalance their portfolios to get back onto their plan, because diversification pays off when a market is touchy about headline events. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that while warm Krispy Kreme donuts may make people happy, the company's stock — which he has warned about since it went through its IPO in June 2021 — is stale. He says that this is a meme stock with a negative economic book value and real potential to go to zero. Tom Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments, brings his disciplined, earnings-driven approach to stocks to the Market Call.

Eric Stein, chief investment officer, Voya Investment Management, says that if the economy can muddle through until the Federal Reserve cuts rates, it will be positive for the stock market and the broader economy, allowing for 2026 to be another year that continues the winning streak for stocks. Stein says that he believes markets "get desensitized to similar news over time," and that the current markets may still be fixated on tariffs, but "general tariff noise" is now priced in and aren't enough to derail the market or create a recession. He says that economic changes, including the building deregulation story, will help small-cap stocks move from laggards to leaders. Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, expects the Federal Reserve to make "a couple of cuts this year, followed by two or three cuts next year," and that those moves will be made while inflation stays at current levels or rises slightly. Like Stein, Freund thinks changes in economic conditions will help the market broaden out to include small-caps, and while he is worried about the market facing a rough patch in the fall, he said the market should be able to enter 2026 with room to run. Jeff Bishop, chief executive officer at RagingBull.com, says that when he examines the technical patterns he doesn't "see any reason to not want to continue to buy the market here." Bishop expects the market to suffer a 10 percent correction in the fall, but wind up higher. He thinks 2026 is shaping up as a year when the market could post low double-digit gains again. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about new rules that allow private equity, private credit, cryptocurrency and other alternative assets in retirement plans, and whether that access is really a good idea.

Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager for the Muhlenkamp Fund, says in today's Money Life Market Call that one of his big fears right now is in order to deal with government debt, authorities will de-value the dollar, so he has been adding gold and precious metals names to the portfolio to hedge against that potential. He is also looking at deregulation as a possible driver for future as well, and while he is a value-oriented manager, he noted that there are plenty of ideas that look promising despite a market that is at record highs. David Lau, chief executive officer at DPL Financial, discusses how lifetime income and annuitizing retirement savings has become particularly important now, given uncertainty over the future of Social Security. He notes that investors who are considering annuities may want to be making the purchase before interest rates start to fall, but he also notes that annuity products that promise downside protection against stock market risk are likely to fall into the category of "too good to be true." Plus, in the ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, goes for an actively managed international small-cap fund with his ETF of the Week.

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that with no one talking about recession these days, he says "it is the one thing the market is at risk of having happen right now" because the market isn't pricing in any potential downturn. Recession is not his base case, but he says there is an economic soft patch to get through that will take the economy to the edge of stall speed; he does think the market will get through that to finish the year higher, with the Standard & Poor's 500 moving hitting 6,600. Luschini thinks investors will want to ride that upturn well diversified, including allocations to international stocks — and particularly developed Europe — where he thinks valuations will help to keep this year's run-up rolling along. Joseph Schuster, chief executive officer at IPOX Schuster, says that the market for initial public offerings has been hot this year — a fund based on his landmark IPO index is up more than 30 percent year-to-date — and has some more solid names that are ready for their roll-out, including financial companies Bullish and Miami International Holdings, which make their debuts this week. Plus, with the S&P 500 having closed Tuesday above 6,400 for the first time, Chuck has a recommendation for how investors should be reacting to the news, and the move they should be making here with the market at highs.

Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that the evolution boom in artificial intelligence is the kind of generational market event that only happens "once every 20 or 30 years." He says it will be "very meaningful and we believe very good not only for the economy but for the markets." He is optimistic that the increased productivity created by the AI revolution can help the economy grow its way out of the fiscal concerns over deficits and other issues that overhang the market. That said, he does see mild turbulence ahead, but without a major correction or downturn as the market winds through the rest of 2025. His advice for that turbulence: "Buckle up." Paulo Costa, senior behavioral economist at Vanguard, discusses the firm's research into the emotional and time value of advice, which showed that the benefits of financial advice extend far beyond simply having expertise at the helm making investment choices. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about the use of one or two popular funds to be an entire portfolio — a strategy particularly popular with members of the FIRE movement (Financial Independence, Retire Early) — and he examines the pros and cons of making simplicity the cornerstone of an investment portfolio.

Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, says that with the purple haze of fiscal policy uncertainty and tariffs having lifted, the "pace of natural advancement" doesn't have a lot of room left in 2025, but after a slower grind into the end of the year, she thinks that 2026 "is shaping up to be an acceleration type of a year."  She expects broader stock market participation to help with that, though she says that breadth will extend to the 493 stocks that are in the Standard & Poor's 500 but not the Magnificent Seven, rather than to small caps. Agati also said that the international rally thus far this year is likely to slow significantly.  David Trainer of New Constructs put "unattractive asset managers" in the Danger Zone this week, and singled out Virtus Investment Partners as a prime example, saying it wasn't just that the money manager has a suite of mostly unattractive funds, but that its results as a stock could get ugly too. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's back-to-school shopping survey, which surprisingly showed that fewer Americans are saying that school shopping is putting pressure on their finances this year. One reason why is that shoppers say they have changed some of the ways they shop in response to higher inflation.  Plus, in the intro segment, Chuck discusses his experience with a warranty program — something he normally disdains and avoids — that started out looking ugly, but wound up with a happy ending.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that his calculations on the stock market show that despite being near record-high levels, the market is "slightly underpriced relative to fair value," meaning it has room to move higher from here. Callahan says that a small-cap rally and market changes that started to surface a year ago were disrupted by the tariff tantrum but should return in the next year. Moreover, he sees continued economic growth, fueled by strong earnings and growth of the money supply rather than reduction in interest rates, which he says should be enough to support gains even while investors worry about downdrafts, corrections and recessions that he does not think are on the immediate horizon.  Dave Sekera, chief U.S. market strategist for Morningstar, brings the firm's bottoms-up fundamentals-focused, discounted-cash-flow analysis system to the Market Call. Kenneth Burdon, an attorney with Simpson Thacher and Bartlett, discusses a court case between a closed-end fund activist investor and four fund sponsors that has made it to the U.S. Supreme Court and that could change the face of activism and the ability for investors to force a fund's board to take steps to narrow discounts and improve its investment prospects. Because investors often buy closed-end funds at a discount hoping to profit when that pricing discrepancy corrects, the suit could impact the way investors view discounts and a fund's prospects for future gains.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says that the market has been dealing with "cross-currents," where concerns about tariffs increasing inflation have been offset by declining oil prices, and where a lack of rate cuts has been countered by record corporate profits. It all combines to create a market that Timmer says can get past the concerns to deliver modest gains moving forward; he makes a case for domestic markets, noting they are not as overvalued as investors might expect after several big years and that they are not facing significant recession or downturn potential.   Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund — part of a just-launched suite of funds that use options to generate income off of traditional sector indexes — as his ETF of the Week. Wealth manager Derek Ober of Ober Financial discusses the latest release from the Northwestern Mutual 2025 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that a growing number of Americans plan to leave an inheritance to their heirs, but fewer people expect to receive money from an inheritance. Ober says that a lack of communication between the generations is at the heart of the issue.

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says he expects both the stock market and the economy to face a "soft patch" that will increase volatility and mute returns for the rest of the year, but he believes conditions are strong enough that there will be no recession and that those year-end doldrums will lead to improvement and gains in 2026. Cronk, who also is president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, notes that his firm has already set year-end price targets for next year, and is forecasting 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 as the "midpoint target" in that forecast.  Jenny Harrington, chief executive officer at Gilman Hill Asset Management — the author of "Dividend Investing: Dependable Income to Navigate All Market Environments" — makes her debut on the show, bringing her take on equity-income investing to the Market Call. Plus, Chip Lupo of WalletHub, discusses the site's 2025 Household Debt Survey, which showed that 44 percent of people expect their household debt level to increase in the next 12 months, and that 55 percent of respondents think they will still have debt to pay when they die.

Nick Sargen, consultant and senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors haven't really seen the economic impact of tariffs and other policies that experts were warning the public about, but they are seeing those issues now. "Fasten your seatbelts," Sargen warns, "you're just beginning to see the impacts." While not calling for a recession, Sargen says he sees headwinds for the market because "I don't understand how the market can keep setting record highs every day when now we are confronting major uncertainty."  Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says she sees "a lot more downside risk than upside potential" for the market right now, noting that it will be hard for the Standard & Poor's 500 to top 6,500 in the next few months whereas a decline could drop the index "into the low 5,000s." As a result, DeGarner has made her own portfolio particularly defensive, holding "mostly Treasuries" because there is "more risk than reward to be long stocks" now. Further, Garner says it's a "sell-the-rallies market for gold and silver," largely because she expects the gold rally to end -- and for precious metals to potentially take a big fall -- when the dollar gets a little stronger. Plus, Rita Choula, senior director of caregiving for the AARP Public Policy Institute, discusses its Caregiving in the U.S. 2025 study, which showed that more than 63 million Americans are providing ongoing complex care for family members, and that they are sacrificing their financial security, health and well-being in many cases in order to do it.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Discovery Fund and the Bexsil Investment Trust, says that while the rally in gold is long in the tooth — at record highs having lasted twice as long as the standard rally — but he makes the case that it still has plenty of room to run, boosted by purchases made by central banks around the world. Winmill says that a rising dollar might end the rally, but that's not in his forecast; he sees rates staying low or stable, providing enough fuel that the price of gold-mining stocks "could be a triple from here." David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts Peloton Interactive back into The Danger Zone, noting that the company — which is reporting earnings this week — has turned into a meme stock that has doubled its price from recent lows, but which hasn't improved a negative economic book value, meaning the current rally could be the proverbial dead-cat bounce. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association discusses the latest Beer Purchasers Index, which showed a big decline from a year ago — meaning there could be an economic slowdown ahead — but a big improvement from the numbers released a month ago, which would signal that buyers are in a "holding pattern" waiting on tariff and other news before making purchase decisions. Plus, Chuck goes off the news on how a "boring" July that saw the market reach 10 record highs may have been setting up a rough August, and how the numbers could be tougher to get a read on depending on government changes in the future.

Scott Ladner, chief investment officer at Horizon Investments, says he's "not super comfortable right now because everyone else is."While he doesn't see anything specific that could derail the markets, he notes that times when investors throw caution to the wind typically end badly, and that August historically has been a month for market surprises. Ladner says that earnings have been good enough to drive success this year, and that should continue, though it may reflect sluggish economic conditions and slow down a bit before the year ends. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — digs into his firm's data to look at whether the double-digit yields that are easily found in many closed-end fund asset categories are real and worth pursuing or if they are dangerous and headed for a fall. Plus David Miller, co-founder of the Catalyst Mutual Funds, brings his mix of wide-moat and fundamental research with insider-buying and other factors to the Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S&P Global Ratings, says he expects a jump in consumer prices to 3.5 percent by the end of the year, and — while he thinks the move will be temporary or a one-time response to resolution of tariff uncertainty — he expects that to make the Federal Reserve more cautious about cutting rates. That's especially true because he expects economic growth to slow from about 3% early in the year to just above 1% by year's end. Despite that damper on growth, he says the economy will avoid a recession, muddling through a period of doldrums. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the ETF variation of one of the greatest mutual funds of all time his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Chuck tackles Wednesday's news from the Federal Reserve, noting that if rate cuts happen this year — he's been skeptical for months — they will still disappoint investors and economists who now seem certain that the Fed will move at its next meeting in September.

Frank Holmes, chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors — also the executive chairman at Hive Blockchain — says that investors should adjust to market conditions that are “sunny but … windy,” with more volatility and changing conditions but generally pleasant and not hard to navigate through “because we're in a secular bull market.” Holmes discusses the recent strength in the gold market — where he advocates for a mix between holding the metal and owning miners — and in crypto markets, where he says adoption is key to continued growth and value creation. Deb Boyden, head of U.S. defined contribution at Schroders discusses the firm's annual Retirement Survey, which showed that Americans who are retired are facing a reality that is significantly different than what they expected during their earning and accumulating years, which is adding surprising amounts of financial stress to their golden years. Plus Chuck answers a question from a listener who, like Chuck's wife Gail, has a portfolio that is too heavy on equities, where he needs to figure out how to best make changes to better reflect age and risk tolerance.

Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that he expects a correction in the not-too-distant future, but he says that it is more likely to be about time — where the market trades sideways and lets the fundamentals catch up to recent price activity  than it is about stock prices. In fact, Harris is not exceptionally worried about the current rally ending, because while the market is up about 30 percent since its April lows, it is only up about 15 percent in the last year. That's good, Harris says, "but not too far too fast," especially because current performance is within the ranges of historical norms. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says he still expects the Federal Reserve to make two rate cuts before year's end, but he's not expecting any moves when the central bank meets this week, and he says that rate cuts have already been mostly priced into the market , meaning that when reductions finally happen they will not have the full, classic impact that the market expects from cuts. Plus Drew Miyawaki, director of managed investment solutions for Westwood Holdings Group, talks about allocating assets now amid global uncertainty and ways to play foreign markets by focusing at least as much on a country's government structure and geopolitics as on its markets.

Lyle Fitterer, senior portfolio manager for the Baird Funds — manager of the Baird Municipal Bond and Baird Strategic Muni Bond funds — says that absolute yields on fixed income looks pretty attractive, but that muni bonds have lagging some other bond types through the beginning of the year, but are poised now for better results in the second half of the year. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality — chairperson of the Business Conditions Survey for the National Association for Business Economics — says that the July survey released today shows that corporate economists have reduced the odds that there's a recession moving forward, but noted that their employers are taking a more cautious approach as they deal with elevated costs in light of tariff changes and other policies. Kyle Guske, analyst at New Constructs, revisits SunRun as a pick in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock bas been cut dramatically after a huge decline in value, but recently has had a bounce from new lows that is setting up buyers for the next big decline. Plus, in the Market Call, Patrick Healey, founder/president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks about stocks and finding a dynamic balance in current conditions.

Brett Ewing, chief market strategist at First Franklin Financial Services, says he's expecting "green lights from here" for the market with a lot of policy moves by the Trump Administration getting to where they are sorted out and where they will impact the market later in the year, including de-regulation efforts which he believes will be an active investment play. Ewing noted that the stock market has already hit 12 all-time highs this year "and I think we are going to hit a lot more before the end of the year," noting that he started 2025 with his price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 at 6,900, a level he still thinks will hold through some volatility and a possible correction before we reach the new year. Jason Akus, head of healthcare investing for Aberdeen Investments, says that current conditions for health care and biotech investing are making for "one of the most challenging, difficult and dislocated environments I've seen," but he sees "green shoots" for growth that could change the sectors' fortunes. Plus, personal finance journalist Brian O'Connor goes "Off the News" to discuss his recent New York Times story on how Americans spend their lives saving for retirement but have no plan for cashing out and managing their assets without running out of money.

John Silvia, chief executive officer, at Dynamic Economic Strategy, says that anticipated price hikes caused by tariffs haven't happened because the business community didn't want to increase prices until it had some certainty on the taxation levels. Now that the market is approaching clarity, he expects a raft of price increases, and for the economic impacts of the tariffs to hit home, making the economy more sluggish, but not pushing it over the edge into recession. Natalie Trevithick, head of investment grade corporate bonds at Payden & Rygel, discusses the hot areas of corporate and high-yield bonds and whether their stellar performance can continue when the Federal Reserve starts cutting rates, which she is expecting to start soon. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a multi-factor index fund his #ETFoftheWeek, and Hari Srinivasan, chief executive officer at iCover Insure, discusses why nearly half of Americans don't have life insurance.

Matt Miskin, co-chief investment strategist at Manulife John Hancock Investments, knows that it's hard to get investors focused on fixed income when the stock market is flirting with record highs, but he says that equities are poised to experience slower gains moving forward at a point where bonds are delivering solid, steady income. He's not backing away from stocks, but with the forward price/earnings ratio for stocks near its own record highs, he is taking a more defensive posture because the math suggests that "bonds can compete with stocks" moving forward. Rob Williams discusses the 9th annual Modern Wealth Survey from Charles Schwab, which showed that Americans believe it takes roughly $840,000 in net worth to be "financially comfortable," up from about $780,000 a year ago. Plus, in the Market Call, James Abate, head of fundamental strategies at Horizon Investments — portfolio manager for the Centre Funds — talks infrastructure investing and more.

Veteran Wall Street observer Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to review how his annual predictions for the year ahead are turning out midway into 2025, and despite the headlines and the volatility and uncertainty surrounding the market, Doll appears to be on pace for his best year ever, with at least nine of his forecasts looking like they might finish the year in the money. Doll says the stock market may not have much more upside left this year, particularly if the Federal Reserve doesn't lower rates and inflation stays higher for longer, but even if those things mute the market, he doesn't think they will send it falling significantly from here. Jim Lee, founder of StratFi, says that benign long-term trends for stocks have made him somewhat bullish, leading him to expect gains for the market in the 5 to 10% range for the rest of the year. He says the lower-growth economy remains expansionary, almost a Goldilocks situation for the economics, though he notes that politics continue to take the clarity out of these conditions and will keep making investors nervous. Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer of Ritholtz Wealth Management and blogger at Of Dollars and Data brings his numbers-driven approach to retirement planning in his new book, "The Wealth Ladder: Proven Strategies for Every Step of Your Financial Life." He discusses the book — and how consumers can determine how much they can comfortably spend each day and more — in the Book Interview. 

Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the uncertainty over tariffs, geo-politics, inflation and more has "kind of melted away," allowing themarkets to perform well and recapture record highs.Kalish says that while he likes the looks of global markets and wants a more balanced approach with increased exposure to Europe, Japan and other economies, he hasn't given up on the case of American exceptionalism in the market, especially with the way domestic companies have driven the artificial-intelligence boom that has been driving domestic markets higher. Author Paul Vigna returns to Money Life to discuss his new book —  The Almightier: How Money Became God, Greed Became Virtue, and Debt Became Sin — which is out this week and which examines how billionaires became false idols as savers and investors in the U.S. were forced to take more control of their financial futures. David Trainer of New Constructs turns to a fund that gets a five-star rating from Morningstar for this week's installment of The Danger Zone, saying that the Donoghue Forlines Momentum fund has investors paying too much for a portfolio that tilts towards unattractive and dangerous stocks. In the Market Call, Kathy Boyle of Chapin Hill Advisors discusses a core-and-satellite investment strategy built around the use of exchange-traded funds.

Jeff Krumpelman, chief investment strategist at Mariner Wealth Advisors, likens current markets to "clear-air turbulence," when a plane flying through blue skies winds up being buffeted by high winds and conditions that are hard to see. Weathering that wild ride, travelers can reach their destination, and Krumpelman thinks the Standard & Poor's 500 is headed to 6,600 — the same level he was forecasting at the start of the year — with 7,000 a possible high-water mark. Krumpelman says that trusting the data showing a strong economy should make investors confident that the market will overcome headline noise and turn any downturns into buying opportunities. In The NAVigator segment, Rob Shaker — portfolio manager of Shaker Financial Services — discusses "discount-capture investing," and how the market's wild moves around tariff announcements this year made the strategy particularly sensitive to the emotional changes of investors. Shaker says that discount fallout from tariff news was particularly big and fast, but conditions normalized quickly, rewarding patience and risk-taking. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Marshall, president and portfolio manager at Hodges Capital Management, talks about bottoms-up investing and finding management with solid long-term stories that can weather current headline risk.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at the Channel Capital Research Institute — author of Follow the Fed to Investment Success — says he does not believe that President Trump will fire Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell, and that he also thinks Powell will continue to ignore the president's pressure to cut rates. Given recent numbers, Roberts thinks Powell and the Fed can wait longer before making any rate cuts, potentially holding off through both the July and September meetings before making a move. Meanwhile, he says that large-cap stocks will continue to be the play, with small-caps needing a rate cut to get out of the doldrums. In the Market Call, Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Hennessy Sustainable ETF, talks about how current economic uncertainty is hurting the market, even as it has returned to record-high levels. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a new, actively managed "dynamic value" fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Nanette Abuhoff Jacobson, global investments strategist for the Hartford Funds, says that uncertainty, by itself, hasn't derailed global markets and slowed growth, but that it could be starting to happen now with signs that there has been a lag time impacting tariff impacts and that core prices are starting to rise. Jacobson says that U.S. investors have become "complacent and they're pricing in a bit of a Goldilocks scenario;" she is still positive on equities, but she is underweight U.S. stocks and overweight emerging markets, Europe and Japan.Michael Gayed, portfolio manager of the new Free Markets ETF — as well as the ATAC Funds — discusses how deregulation policies will benefit certain industries and businesses and how reduced compliance and other regulatory costs will result in bigger profits and more capital expenditures, and will particularly benefit small-cap stocks. Plus, Jesse Abercrombie discusses Edward Jones' "Pulse of North America" survey — conducted at the height of April's post-tariff announcement market volatility — which showed that nearly three-quarters of Americans are optimistic about their ability to live a "financially fulfilled life" despite current, ongoing volatility concerns.

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, says he is optimistic for the rest of 2025, though he expects choppiness as the Standard & Poor's 500 moves toward a year-end target of 6,650. Newton says the economy has been resilient through the headline risks and that the market is in a "Goldilocks state because the Fed is certainly going to cut three times between now and next summer, earnings are coming in good and yet there's still a wall of worry," making for "a very favorable path for investing in the second half of this year." Economist and New York University professor Howard Yaruss says that the economy is entering "literally uncharted territory" when it comes to tariffs, with free international trade being upended by current government policies. Yaruss is worried that the economic impacts of tariffs haven't truly hit yet, but he says the lag is about to end and that means the numbers will start to get ugly and could push the U.S. economy into recession and/or stagflation. In the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., talks about investing in companies with growing dividends, noting that the growth of the payout is more important to him than a simple high yield number.

Brad Case, chief economist at Middleburg Communities, says that while Americans have been complaining about the housing market and available home stock, the market is not far off from historic norms. That said, he also discussed some recent research he did showing that Americans would be better off renting a home — and investing the savings they get on various aspects of ownership — than they are by tying up the biggest chunk of their monies in a home, which he considers to be an asset that puts up comparatively small gains over long periods of time. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, comes through with an attractive stock selection, picking Halliburton as a company that is likely to benefit from beating earnings soon. The pick follows up on the Danger Zone segment from last week, when Trainer singled out Caesars Entertainment as a stock likely to miss projected earnings and to be punished by the market as a result. Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors, says investors have moved from being highly pessimistic when tariffs were first announced and the market was tanking in April into more of an equilibrium. With the market reaching near record levels, Rotblut says it is a good sign that optimism hasn't completely surged; that said, he noted that investor sentiment is rising, and discussed how AAII is now using sentiment as more of determinant on trading when it moves in ways that might signal a potential market reversal. 

Vincent Randazzo, founder and chief market strategist at ViewRight Advisors, says that while the stock market appears overbought in the short-term — and may need some time to get through it — the longer-term indicators are bullish, and suggest that the rally that has been in place for three years now can continue. Randazzo says that indicators are showing that the market appears to be broadening out, and that improving market participation and improving investor confidence should help power the market through headline risks. In The NAVigator, John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — says he expects three first-half laggards in municipal bonds, senior loans and master limited partnerships to become leaders for the rest of 2025, and suggests attractive options for riding those trends. In the Market Call, Garvin Jabusch, co-founder and chief investment officer at Green Alpha Advisors discusses his efforts to find companies that are truly innovative and driving long-term change rather than riding the coattails of a hot industry or sector.

It's a wide-ranging show today, with Ben Cook, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Energy Transition and Hennessy Mid-Stream funds, giving his latest take on the energy sector, noting that the industry is well-positioned to at least not be hurt while tariff policies play out, even as the U.S. has become the world's largest oil-producing nation and the OPEC nations are looking to improve their fortunes. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits the CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF — which he featured as ETF of the Week at the beginning of March and which gained 78 percent during the second quarter of 2025 — noting that miners and spot crypto funds serve different purposes in a portfolio, but that both are poised for more growth now. Melissa Stephenson discusses her research for Sudokubliss.com that looked at the theme parks that provide good value for your money while keeping lines short enough that complaints are few, and Chuck does a deep dive on the so-called "Trump accounts" that were created within the budget bill that was signed into law last week. These accounts give $1,000 to every baby born in the country to U.S. citizens between 2025 through 2028 — including the grandchild Chuck's daughter is expecting in August — and he talks about the benefits of the program (beyond the cash infusion) and compares it to other savings vehicles.

Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer at KraneShares and the author of the China Last Night blog, says that the government of China is "doing the things that Trump wants them to be doing" for domestic policy purposes, which is why he sees the signs of a U.S.-China trade deal in the works. He says in The Big Interview that neither side can win in a trade war, but that both sides can move forward sharply and strongly with agreement, even if tariff levels remain high and in place indefinitely. Ahern says that "the worst is behind us" on dollar weakness, noting that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to cut rates until later in the year, allowing the dollar to stabilize in the interim while tariff policies are being finalized. Bob Powell, retirement columnist at TheStreet.com discusses government projections showing that standard monthly premiums for Medicare Part B will rise by more than 11 percent in 2026, and will likely be subjected to higher-than-expected increases potentially for the next decade. Plus, Allison Hadley, an analyst at Digital Third Coast, discusses research on  how Americans are using Google in AI mode and how it is changing their search results, how they shop, find advice, access news and more.

Rob Williams, chief investment strategist at Sage Advisory Services, says the economy and market have moved off of potential worst-case scenarios into "this manageable camp," where it must get through potholes and uncertainty as the economy "flirts with stall speed" in growth. Still, Williams sees some powerful tailwinds that could drive the market higher in the second half of the year, but the concerns make it that investors should remember that "yield is your friend." "Be fully invested in equities," Williams says, "but don't be stealing from fixed income yet to overload on the equity side. You will want that yield if things get bumpy." Bob Rosen, author of "Detach: Ditch Your Baggage to Live a More Fulfilling Life" discusses how to break away from uncertainty — which he says is a constant in life, and not just present in times like today — to be happy and productive even when conditions make that hard. Plus Chip Lupo discusses a WalletHub survey showing that the tariff uncertainty has made consumers — anticipating price hikes — more interested in earning credit card rewards, and which bonuses consumers find particularly attractive now.

Nick Maggiulli, chief operating officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management — the author of the "Of Dollars and Data" blog — says that while recoveries can happen faster now than in the past due to advances in technology and information, investors who always expect the market to bounce back quickly from any setback have learned the wrong lesson. While he is not calling for a protracted downturn, he is suggesting investors want to protect themselves; to that end, he discusses how proper diversification practically forces individuals to buy and hold something that will lose money, even when everything else is doing well. That makes it hard to do, even if it's the best path. Maggiulli also discusses achieving financial independence — and the mindset to enjoy it — and more. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, resurrects some of the firm's research looking at which stocks are most in jeopardy of an earnings miss when second-quarter numbers are released in the coming weeks, and singles out one well-known gaming stock that he says is due for a miss and a big fall. And in the Market Call, Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, mixes growth-at-a-reasonable price investing with his long-term thematic approach to the markets.

Jose Torres, senior economist for Interactive Brokers, says that the economy is about to get past tariffs — "the huge negative of the Trump policy mix" — and move to lighter taxation, milder regulations, subdued energy costs, rising factory production and, hopefully, rising employment as well," which creates a bullish outlook for the economy and the stock market into 2026. Torres says he expects the Federal Reserve to begin cutting rates this month and says the central bank has plenty of ammunition to fend off any recessionary pressures left while inflation gets through the initial tariff impacts. Torres noted that IBKR's forecast trader  suggests 25 percent odds that the Fed will trim this month, but he believes that's low and that the Fed has been too tight. Kyle Brown, chief executive officer at Trinity Capital, says government policies have been paying off for business-development companies as the private credit markets have seen a spike in demand as a result of the capital expenditures that American businesses are undertaking in order to achieve the government's near-shoring mandates. He says that private credit providers are well-positioned in the current rate environment, but also could benefit from rate cuts reducing costs. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, turns to a "dividend dogs" fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Herb Greenberg, editor of Herb Greenberg's Red Flag Alerts, tells the story of a stock scam that most recently centered on Ostin Technology, a Chinese company traded on the Nasdaq that recently popped to over $9 per share before losing 95 percent of its value in a single day. While the company is a cautionary tale for investors, Greenberg's bigger warning involves similar frauds that spring up around other companies overnight — that are fueled by investor greed and AI-powered fakery — which he describes as nearly impossible to stop or end in what he calls "the golden age of grift." Financial adviser Anthony Holds discusses the latest release from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, which showed that nearly 70 percent of Americans say financial uncertainty makes them depressed and anxious. Plus, in the Market Call, Dryden Pence, chief investment officer at Pence Capital Management, talks about finding stocks that benefit from being at the chokepoints in the supply chain for the next big thing.

Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy for Global X ETFs says the fundamentals are strong enough that the market and economy should be in better shape by year's end, provided the wildcards of tariffs and geopolitics don't interfere. Discussing his outlook for the rest of 2025, Helfstein expects different leadership, noting that he favors low-beta strategies, plus the defense technology and cyber-security sectors. Helfstein says that growth stocks are "more profitable than they have ever been," and says that investors who missed out on the artificial-intelligence boom can get in now at valuations that are reasonable because the industry had a recovery since April that was more sluggish than the rest of the market. Susan Fahy discusses the VantageScore Credit Gauge for May, which showed an increase in early-stage delinquencies, including in mortgages, and whether it's a sign that consumers are starting to struggle. Plus Matt Kaufman, head of ETFs for Calamos Investments, discusses the firm's new "autocallable income fund," and how it represents less of a step in the evolution of options-based strategies than a "new asset class" for investors looking for high levels of income.

Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says that the volatility and headline risks of the first half of 2025 haven't changed the outlook for the market and economy, which can grind through the rest of the year and into 2026 with modest gains. Haworth acknowledges "a lot of questions still to be answered," but he says that most of the answers will be within degrees of expectations, and a lack of surprises should allow the market to grind higher. That said, Haworth said investors will want to be properly diversified to protect themselves against the volatility and the news risks. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carvana back in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which he first singled out in April of 2019 — has roared back from a low of $4 per share in December 22 to gain more than 50 percent year-to-date and nearly 150 percent in the last year, rising to a stock valuation "that implies that Carvana will sell as many vehicles as General Motors." Plus Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, on their latest survey research, which showed that 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their current level of emergency savings, and half of Americans don't have enough emergency savings to cover three months' expenses.

Dustin Reid, chief strategist for fixed income at Mackenzie Investments, says he expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts in July, but to be moved into making a double cut — half a percent — in September, and worries that the central bank may be waiting too long to act, as the labor market is starting to show some cracks. Reid said a bigger cut might be taken as a positive by the market if inflation hasn't spiked, labor markets are slow but steady and the action suggests that the Fed is trying to stay ahead of the action. That action and uncertainty has Reid favoring intermediate bonds now, with two- to five-year maturities. John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says he is risk-on right now, being fully invested and continuing to ride the wave that started churning after the stock market bottomed out in April. Kosar acknowledges that the market's rebound has been fast and big, and so he's expecting a reversion to the mean that would push him to a risk-off position, ahead of what he considers a foreseeable market tumble. Plus, in The NAVigator segment, Mike Schueller — co-manager of the Allspring Income Opportunities fund — says he foresees a "muddle-through economy," which is actually a good environment for high-yield bonds, which face little default risk at a point where recession has "receded into the background."

David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Individual Investor Survey, which shows that investors were so satisfied with the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and '24 that they are expecting less this year, but they have only dropped their expectations from roughly 17 percent down to about 12 percent, and Goodsell notes that financial advisers sugest those numbers aren't realistic or responsible. Goodsell says he believes the market is heading towards "a new age of diminished expectations." Sociologist and author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, "Four Days a Week: The Life-Changing Solution for Reducing Employee Stress, Improving Well-Being, and Working Smarter, leaning into whether the business community and the government could ever adopt a massive workplace change on a broad scale. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into current events to examine an advocacy fund with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the "Buy, borrow and die" strategy a financial adviser is pitching to his friend's elderly, wealthy mother.

Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says he sees continued expansion in the United States and a slowing in Europe and other international markets, which contributes to why he is mostly neutral on allocations, as tariff plays and international stimulus efforts and more creates positive potential around the globe. Morris says a neutral stance makes sense because there is so much uncertainty right now that it is hard to have strong convictions about what the market can do next. Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the ongoing Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to reflect corporate evolutions and avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now. Plus Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses current levels of consumer sentiment which show that nearly two-thirds of Americans are expecting that tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances.

Stacie Mintz, head of quantitative equity for PGIM Quantitative Solutions, says that equity valuations in emerging markets are at their most attractive level relative to U.S. stocks in decades. That's not a surprise, as emerging markets have underperformed domestic markets for the last 13 years, but Mintz says the time has come for diversification to pay off. While the headline risks of tariffs, trade wars and geopolitics loom large,she said current values are compelling enough that investors should be comfortable waiting for a payoff when the news cycle calms down. Jasmine Escalera discusses a survey done by LiveCareer which showed that "ghost job postings" — listings for phantom jobs that don't exist — have become a staple of the hiring process for nearly half of all American human-resources  pros. Plus Richard Howe, editor of the Stock Spin-off Investing newsletter, returns to the Market Call, talking about what can make spin-offs attractive, compares the roll-out of subsidiaries to the initial public offering process and discusses howlong spin-off effects linger.

Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group, says he sees the market either continuing to climb the proverbial wall of worry or getting complacent, and he fears that it's the latter after the sharp rebound from April's decline. "Right now the market is overbought," Shill says in the Market Call, where he recommends "putting airbags on," using stops to lock in profits and being prepared to step back from markets until conditions improve. In The Big Interview, Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the Federal Reserve faces a challenge getting the market to understand its motivation for any rate cuts it makes later this year. He expects a rate cut later this year, likely in September, but he says the reaction of the market — whether it gives the classic bullish response or if it reacts as it did in 2024 when cuts had less impact than expected, particularly on bond markets — will depend on what the market thinks is the Fed's motivation for a cut. Plus, Anthony Holds of Holds Wealth Advisors discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, in which nearly 70% of Americans reported that financial uncertainty has made them feel depressed and anxious.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that modest earnings growth will result in single-digit equity gains for the rest of the year. Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and Invesco are currently forecasting. Certified financial therapist Nate Astle discusses a Beyond Finance study which showed the deep connections between financial strain and emotional well-being, suggesting that money isn't just a numbers game but a mental-health issue. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers listener questions about closed-end funds and whether premiums and returns of capital are as bad for investors as they are cracked up to be, whether interval funds are worth the illiquidity risk and more.

Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses the firm's 2025 MegaTrends report, which looks at global debt investing, talking about how deficit spending and other concerns will impact credit markets over the next decade.  Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, checks in ahead of today's Fed meeting and announcement on what he expects from central bankers for the remainder of the year and whether cuts — whenever they start — will have the classic result investors are clamoring for. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a play on the market's recent momentum with his pick for the "ETF of the Week."

It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is  higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown.  David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average,  the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.