Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Jared Lou, portfolio manager on the emerging markets debt team at William Blair, says that the outlook for Venezuela and its place in the investment world has "dramatically changed" with the removal of president Nicholas Maduro. Lou noted that Venezuelan debt should be able to be restructured now, creating "a much better future than they had just a few days ago." Lou says emerging markets are well positioned for a big year in 2026, with continued dollar weakness also contributing to tailwinds.   WalletHub.com released its list of the "Best Credit Cards for 2026" today, and Chip Lupo, an analyst for the site, discusses not only some of the best deals but why consumers may want to be shopping for new credit cards now, even if they don't need one, noting that many credit deals have changed and improved. He says card users who fail to keep up with their perks and benefits will lose out and waste some of their credit dollars. Cecilia Amo, founder of Amo Law Legacy Planning discusses how consumers who want to avoid estate planning may doom their families to problems with probate, lost assets and much more. At a time of year when many people are trying to improve their financial lives, she talks about how estate planning does not have to be difficult, and the peace of mind it provides.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says three consecutive years of stock market gains aren't going to come to a dead stop, but he does think the market's pace will slow down in 2026, where he has a target for the Standard & Poor's 500 of 7,150. Johnson expects a strong first quarter, but suggests investors might want to start building up cash for a pullback that could occur in the second or third quarter, noting that this market is "acting more like a light switch than a dimmer," meaning it will have on-off volatility rather than more gentle moves. David Goerz, chief executive and chief investment officer at Strategic Frontier Management, sees the market reaching a similar peak — he picked 7,200 on the S&P as his target — and also forecast a correction or downturn in the spring or early summer, but he says that the fundamentals behind his process suggest that small-caps and international stocks will be the areas that ultimately carry the market higher. In "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, discusses how Venezuela — in the news due to the arrest of its president — should not be overlooked for its economic impact, despite being a frontier market, discusses how energy markets will sort out the issues there and talks about how capitalism continues to show its dominance over socialism.

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to discuss his 10 forecasts for the year ahead, when he is expecting "a good, but not a great year" as the market navigates "a high-risk bull market." Doll, a Wall Street veteran who has been making annual forecasts and predictions for decades, says that every year has plenty of uncertainty, but he says it feels like there is more now. He's expecting positive economic growth, sticky inflation and earnings that are lower than analysts expect, which will put a cap on the market's ability to generate gains. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — reviews the forecasts he made a year ago for 2025, grading his wins and losses on everything from inflation levels and Treasury yields to discount levels and the performance of five funds he identified as potential buys. Plus, Chuck talks about how investors are caught in a cyclone of emotions — suffering from higher inflation while benefiting from a stock market that has been defying gravity — and how a straightforward to-do list for the new year can provide more financial stability and clarity for 2026 and beyond.

Phil Rosen, co-founder of Opening Bell Daily, discusses his recent piece on "The 10 stocks Wall Street is most bullish on for 2026" — as well as the ones analysts think will underperform the most. These aren't his picks — in fact, Rosen is clear that they're not in his portfolio -- but instead they represent where analyst estimates are most disconnected from the current stock price; while that condition could mean the stocks are poised for take-off, it also means they could be particularly impacted by an earnings miss or any problem that shakes up analysts. Justin deTray, managing director at Wealthspire Advisors, discusses how the biggest determinant of returns is investor behavior — managing loss aversion, recency bias, anchoring and other personality traps — rather than asset allocation, and what that means for how investors should re-position their holdings entering the new year. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, revisits three of his "ETF of the Week" picks from 2025 to note which ones worked particularly well in terms of both performance but also in terms of attracting assets in a crowded ETF landscape. (Warning, one of these picks is a fund that can be labeled as "boring" due to its assets and investment style, but where returns are enviable compared to peers.) Plus, Chuck talks about five ways he hopes to improve his life — the behaviors he wants to change or things he wants to get done — that will help him in 2026 but also, he believes, for all the rest of his years.

Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at Hi Mount Research, says that investors may be expecting too much from the domestic stock market, which makes it more likely to disappoint them even if it delivers modest gains. He's more excited about the prospects of international stocks and the commodities market, where he says the values — relative to the domestic market — remain attractive and there is more room to run.   With year-end upon us, Chuck talks about some personal finance realizations he has made this year that have him adjusting his thinking for the future, to better balance money and happiness. He's discussing research which shows that how someone receives their income may be a bigger determinant in their happiness than how much money they have, and how financial security is not just about the number at the bottom of a net worth statement. Plus, Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments brings his stock-picking mix of technical momentum indicators and fundamental analysis back to the Market Call.

Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, says that while artificial intelligence dominated the media landscape for moving the market in 2025, he says that monetary policy was a bigger story for investors, moving gold, silver, precious metals to much bigger gains.  "Commodities told the story of 2025," Marolia said in "The Week That Is," and while he expects AI to continue to be a big story, he said investors should be paying more attention to gold and precious metals. Marolia also talks about the year ahead, one where he expects increased merger and acquisition activity, improvement for value stocks and small companies, a rebound in cryptocurrency and more. Chuck talks about goals versus resolutions for the year ahead, advocating for having a personal system that helps provide focus on personal growth and progress so that you can make the most of the year ahead. Plus, the show revisits a recent conversation with Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research,who said that the bull market after celebrating its third birthday is in a position to keep running and producing positive returns for longer. He's expecting a modest up year in 2026.

John Cole Scott, President of CEF Advisors, relies on his massive stores of data to look ahead for 2026, and he foresees no recession, lower inflation and modest GDP growth for 2026, with less volatility due to the interest-rate picture but more market tension due to the global macro picture. Scott also discusses what he sees happening in the closed-end fund industry, and he selects five funds — including one that has been in the news recently for problems that raised its discount — that he's expecting big things from in the year ahead. Long-time business journalist Allan Sloan — a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award, business journalism's highest honor — returns to the show to discuss his recent piece for Barron's  in which he discussed his admiration for the way Michael and Susan Dell recently committed $6.25 billion of their own money to give 25 million kids $250 each to invest in mutual funds. But he doesn't like the mechanics of the new Trump accounts that are the vehicle for those young savers and he says their impact on changing lives will be much more limited than the hype is making it out to be. Plus, Chuck talks about avoiding mistakes that result in financial punishments if not completed by year's end: failing to take required minimum distributions and failing to spend down dollars set aside in Flexible Spending Accounts. He cites Vanguard data showing that the RMD problem is much bigger than many people expect, and he suggests ways that heatlh-care savers can legally spend down their accounts while there is still time.

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, is a market veteran who wasn't allowed to make annual forecasts until this year, and he's starting with an outlier, calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to lose about 7% in 2026. Sosnick says a key issue for the market is investor expectations which are now so high that "it's hard to outpace that." Sosnick doesn't think the market is going in the tank, but he says that if investors see it struggle and lose some of their "buy-the-dips" nerve, it will create headwinds that will be hard to overcome. Travis Prentice, chief investment officer at Informed Momentum, brings his stylized investment methodology — which tries to find the stocks that are outperforming, but that also represent businesses that are improving — to the Market Call, and talks about where he is "finding the mo" now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, reviews the year in exchange-traded funds, from the growth in the industry and the action in new funds to the emergence — thanks to new rules — of ETF share classes for established funds, a change that could be the defining story in the industry in 2026.  

Gene Peroni, founder and president at Peroni Portfolio Advisors, expects a "broad-based, well-balanced market advance" with a number of sectors and themes doing well in 2026. Peroni expects the small- and mid-cap advance that we have seen late this year to become full-blown leadership in the new year, but he's not down on large-caps either, putting a target of 53,000 on the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the year, which would represent roughly a 10 percent gain. He is concerned about heightened volatility, but does not see any oversized drawdowns in the offing. Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, returns to the show to put his forecasts from a year ago up to scrutiny. In a long career on Wall Street, Doll has become known for making 10 annual predictions — and he will unveil his forecasts for 2026 on the first show of the new year — and it looked in the middle of 2025 that his picks were all going to be on the money. The end of the year put a wrench into those plans, but he explains why and where things turned. Allison Hadley discusses a study done for Howdy.com based on a search that has been rising dramatically in popularity on Google, about "Is college worth it?" The survey found that holders of computer science degrees overwhelmingly felt that college was worth the expense, but a shrinking number of people think that degrees will be as valuable in the future, with many noting that artificial intelligence reduces the need for formal education. 

Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, says 2026 will be a year in which valuations and fundamentals really matter, as the broad market will see more volatility and will have less momentum. After three straight years of gains around 20% annually, Jacobsen says investors will need to curb their enthusiasm and settle for gains that, at best, he thinks will only get to high single-digit levels. He says that valuations in large-cap stocks "have created too many vulnerabilities for us to really sleep well at night," which is why he favors international, small- and mid-cap stocks and value stocks for the year ahead. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts the focus squarely on stock pickers in this week's Danger Zone, discussing the benefits — or more importantly the drawbacks, behind active management.  Plus, in "The Week That Is," Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, tells the tale of two tech stocks — one living through the best of times, another the worst of times — covers the evolving battle for content creators and distributors, and offers a holiday wish and suggestion for investors.

Brent Schutte, Chief Investment Officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., sees "a lot of different parts of the U.S. economy that aren't working," and while the market and economy have overcome those concerns to this point — and may have the strength to keep that up — he is concerned about the potential for a fall and says investors need to be diversified properly to ride out the year ahead. "Diversification doesn't pay all the time," Schutte says, "but it often times makes up for all the costs that it has in periods where whatever you want to concentrate in actually doesn't work. And that's where I think diversification going forward is not only a risk management tool, but it's also a return enhancer." Schutte sees the market broadening out but delivering only modest gains, and says he is more concerned about recession than most experts, because many analysts and investors are so focused on the upside that they have missed warning signs. Alessandro Valentini, fundamental portfolio manager at Causeway Capital Management, says that the gains in foreign stock markets this year were not just about currency fluctuations and he believes there is more potential for growth in 2026 as concerns over tariffs continue to diminish, the dollar produces a smaller tailwind — or at least no resistance — and low valuations create more potential for upside. Richard Stone, chief executive officer for The Association of Investment Companies — the British equivalent to the Active Investment Company Alliance — discusses differences in the activist investor cultures in the United States and Great Britain, including how "venture capital trusts" — the British equivalent of business-development companies — have tax advantages that make private credit investing much more palatable, but also why interval funds (known in England as "long-term asset funds") are a model that has stirred some controversy with investors.

Fritz Folts, Chief Investment Strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says valuations are at levels reminiscent of bubble days in 1999 and the crash era of 1929, but that's not scaring him out of a mix of domestic and foreign stocks, because economic conditions can support further growth. He does worry about a policy mistake or other event which could trigger a downturn, but so long as it stays mild and doesn't "lurch" to where it's a 40% drop, he thinks investors should be comfortable riding it out. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi makes an actively managed small-cap fund — the sister to an international fund he highlighted earlier this year — his ETF of the Week.  Plus, Thomas Cole, Co-Founder, Distillate Capital and the Distillate US Fundamental Stability Value ETF, brings his unique take on value investing to the Market Call.

Daniel Morris, chief investment strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, is expecting the economy and the stock market to continue to roll forward in 2026 but says he would like to see "not such a great year," because his primary worry for the year ahead is "too much of a good thing" that leads the economy to overheat. If that occurs, Morris said, higher inflation and consumers' response to it could change conditions quickly. Morris thinks growth can be solid without going too far, delivering modest growth with volatility due more to conditions like geopolitics than market sentiment. Jason Browne, president of Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF — a fund-of-funds that invests in exchange-traded funds — discusses why his style favors momentum investing and gives his outlook on international stocks, gold, mega-caps and more in the Market Call. Erika Rasure, chief financial wellness advisor for Beyond Finance discusses the site's 2025 holiday survey which found that nearly two-thirds of Americans feel cultural pressure to overspend, even as they face more financial challenges. That has left that same cohort of the country unsure of just how much it is "safe" to spend during the holiday season.

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says inflation is "stuck" at around 3% despite efforts to shrink it, leaving the Federal Reserve struggling with policy decisions as the Trump Administration positions current levels as acceptable. He's expecting the Fed to cut rates once in 2026, toward the middle of the year, and says the market seems accepting, or resigned, to that. As a result, however, he says this is not a time for "set it and forget it" investment styles in fixed income, noting that the opportunities are changing with the shape of the yield curve today. Jeffrey Bierman, chief strategist at Genesis Cog and chief market technician for TheoTrade.com, says the market has already seen its Santa Claus rally, from the end of Thanksgiving to the end of last week, leaving little room for upside into the end of the year and into 2026. For the new year, Bierman sees a protracted period of sideways markets before things turn positive for the end of the year, but he says that leaves plenty of valuation-driven opportunities for patient investors now. In the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president of Simply Safe Dividends, talks long-term dividend and income investing.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, says that "Bull markets don't die of old age, they die of fright, and what they are most afraid of is recession." But he says the current bull market not only doesn't need to be too worried about recession yet, he says that after celebrating its third birthday, it has gotten into the rarified air of a market that can keep running and producing positive results for longer. While he is not expecting a big, double-digit year in 2026 for the stock market, he says modest gains — tempered by heightened volatility and a downturn or two to overcome — are likely. In "The Danger Zone," David Trainer, president at New Constructs, revisits three past picks that outperformed as shorts but which then got the actual benefits of "stupid money risk" — something he discusses nearly every week on the show — as they were bought out by private equity firms in deals that bailed out some shareholders, but which says will not be enough to save bad businesses. Plus, Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, is back with "The Week That Is," digging further into the Warner Brothers Discovery buyout, discussing whether a selloff last week might be a sign that investors are getting weary and may bail out before Santa Claus comes for a rally, and looks at the potential for a SpaceX initial public offering in 2026, which might be the biggest IPO in history.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says that history has shown that nearly every new Federal Reserve chairman does "something dumb" when they first get the job. With Jerome Powell soon to be out as Fed chair, Doty says the central bank is in a tricky place, where it could make a cut before the change and have the next chairman come in anxious to cut further, making a policy mistake that hurts the market, but creates buying opportunities for investors willing to ride it out. He's not the only one on today's show fearful of a Fed mistake, as that is the nightmare scenario for Dustin Reid, chief investment strategist at Mackenzie Investments, who says in the Big Interview that the economy has gotten to a point where further moves forward may have some negative impacts, hurting credit markets, raising more potential for a downturn and recession and, generally, not providing the classic economic boosts that frequently drive the markets higher.  In the "Talking Technicals" interview, Gregory Harmon, president at Dragonfly Capital Management, says he is expecting a small-cap rally to lead the market higher into year-end, and he says that the large-cap stocks — as measured by the Standard & Poor's 500 — will follow suit, and that the question will be whether the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite comes along for the ride. "Technicals are all pointing higher, earnings are doing fantastic," Harmon says, noting that it would take "an unexpected crisis" to derail the underlying trends pointing "strongly to the upside" right now. Plus, Chuck discusses a visit to the bank to grab some cash that was met with an unusual question from a teller, a query that he says is a reason why consumers may want to have more face-to-face relationships with financial advisers of all stripes, rather than doing everything online.

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., now 92 years old and having cemented a track record as one of the best bond fund managers ever, says he's not concerned about a recession because the economy is strong, and in some ways stronger than its ever been during his investing lifetime, but he also compares current times to the late 1930s, a period when geopolitics were dominating the global scene building up to World War II, and says that he is more concerned with those macro-level worries than he has been in his career. Fuss notes that the global scene is more important to what happens next with the U.S. economy than even what the Federal Reserve does, and he quells concerns over pressure on the Fed to cut rates by noting that "every president" wants the central bank to lower interest rates. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes the Victory Shares Free Cash Flow Growth ETF his "ETF of the Week," noting that it's a relatively new fund focused on quality that has outperformed the market since its debut in 2024. Rosenbluth said the quality focus should give investors some calm if they continue to pursue growth in a market that he thinks will be facing increased volatility in 2026.    Plus, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates on Wednesday, Chuck weighs in on what he thinks might happen next and why he worries that interest rate cuts not only won't impact the market as they have in the past but have some potential to hurt the economy at least as much as they could help it if rate reductions continue in the future.

Ben McMillan, chief investment officer at IDX Advisors, says that "gold's run is not over," and while he thinks it could easily reach $5,000 an ounce in the short order, he says "It's not inconceivable that within the next half-decade, gold could be sitting at $10,000 an ounce." (Gold is currently trading at roughly $4,225 an ounce.) He also says he expects the Federal Reserve to reach a point in the next 12 to 24 months where it lives "with a new normal of inflation" and resets its target inflation rate to reflect different thinking, which will mean consumers and investors have to adjust to inflation rates running at 3 percent or higher for the foreseeable future.    Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group discusses the company's Christmas Price Index, which looks at the current cost of giving your true love all of the gifts from the "12 Days of Christmas." Thanks to higher prices with gold -- and the five golden rings -- it's no surprise that the rate of inflation shown in the company's 42nd annual holiday index is higher than inflation generally.    Plus, in a market that has been driven to near record levels on the strength of corporate earnings, Nick Raich, chief executive officer of The Earnings Scout, returns to the show for the first time since 2020, talking about his earnings-centric methodology and his expectations for continued earnings growth for the market.

Scott Brown, Chief Strategist at Brown Technical Insights, is wondering "if the market is sniffing out something," because he has seen a change in the last month on the sectors that are now leading the way forward, and it's not the same things that were leading just a few months ago. Brown notes that banks, transportation, global materials, steel and copper stocks are among the areas that now have taken market leadership, and he says that "there's real upside" to where they can drive the market close to a level of 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 by year's end. A day after discussing the market broadly, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, returns to the show to discuss the Almanac itself for 2026, noting how the old technology of an almanac still has a place in helping to shape forecasts and expectations because it is built on decades of data that remains relevant, even in a world seemingly dominated by the changing technologies of artificial intelligence. David Rosenstrock, director of investments and financial planning at Wharton Wealth Planning, discusses his approach to mutual funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Traders Almanac, says that artificial intelligence is creating a "super boom," because it's a "culturally-enabling, paradigm-shifting technology," which he says can drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 62,000 — up about 30% from current levels — in just a few years. Hirsch, also the chief executive of Hirsch Holdings, also discusses calendar and seasonal impacts on the market and how he expects a Santa Claus rally this year, but what it means if the market misses out. Vijay Marolia, chief investment officer at Regal Point Capital, debuts as Money Life's newest regular in a segment called "The Week That Is," which provides one takeway from the market and economic news of the week just finished, the thing to watch out for in the week ahead and one take looking further forward. This week, Vijay focuses on the Netflix-Warner Brothers Discovery deal, how precious metals will respond to a rate cut and move forward and what parents should consider about the new Trump Accounts saving for children. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, circles back on Lyft Inc., the rideshare company that he first singled out as it was in its IPO phase in 2019. The stock is up more than 70 percent year-to-date, but it has lost more than three-quarters of its value since it was launched. Trainer says this year's gains are simply setting up the next fall for a company that is burning cash and that carries a negative economic book value. Rachel Perez discusses the results of a survey done for Rula Health, which showed that 75% of Americans say the cost of holiday gifts stresses them out, but also stresses their budget, with the average American overspending their plan by $261.

Brandon Thurber, chief market strategist at Regions Asset Management, says climbing the proverbial wall of worry has "supercharged the market," making it hard "to find reasons to be anything less than positive and constructive for 2026." While he worries that the message could be that "The only thing you have to fear is fear itself" — and he describes in The Big Interview the real fears that he feels could blossom into problems — he doesn't expect conditions to change much from 2025, and is mostly encouraged about domestic and international markets. Ken Berman, strategist at Gorilla Trades, says that he'd be foolish to say that now is a great time to buy after three strong years, but he believes the path of least resistance for the market is to go higher, and that's what he thinks will carry the current rally well into the new year. Like Thurber, Berman says he wouldn't want to get in the way of the market right now, and makes it clear that while there are reasons to be nervous he "wouldn't want to be short here." John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors, looks at tax-loss selling season and whether it has started yet, noting that a few asset classes have largely been able to avoid situations where there will be widespread harvesting this year, while others — most notably business-development companies — may be poised for a lot of tax-driven reshuffling before year's end. Scott also answers some questions on the value of tax-loss harvesting if it means selling a fund you like, and how he recognizes yield traps and spots big discounts that are poor buying opportunities.

Joel Litman, founder/chief investment officer at Altimetry Research, says that investor worries about valuations are overblown because "good data" shows that current conditions are more like the mid-1990s — the middle of a bull market — than 2000 when the Internet bubble burst. He says in the Market Call that with real core earnings growing for a lot of companies, valuations are still reasonable, which is why he says current conditions make for a screaming bull market with several years where it can keep running before investors should get worried and nervous. Brad Neuman, senior vice president/director of market strategy for Alger, says in The Big Interview that if technology spending in artificial intelligence had been removed, the economy would have gone through a recession in the first half of the year, but that also means that a lot of the pressures from a downturn have passed. With the AI boom in "the very early innings," he sees the economy strengthening next year bringing the stock market to higher levels with it. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a tactical play with a new, actively managed corporate bond fund from a brand-name money manager as his ETF of the Week.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says he expects inflation to rise to roughly 3.2 percent early in 2026, and says that increase — a long-awaited after-effect of tariffs — to mute the impact of interest rate cuts and other policies. Still, he stopped short of calling for a recession, noting that he thinks the market can overcome extremely high valuations to move forward modestly. He does think the economy may be moving into a period where it supports flat or slow growth for several years, but said it can avoid a crash or a bubble popping if it can avoid nightmare scenarios that he says currently look more hypothetical than threatening. Kerry Pechter, editor and publisher at Retirement Income Journal, discusses his recent piece on what he calls "The Private Credit Instability Hypothesis," which looks at how the growing popularity of private-credit investments could be setting up a future fall akin to the subprime mortgage situation that presaged the Great Financial Crisis. Pechter is concerned that insurance companies — buying private credit to generate higher returns on annuities — will wind up holding the bag on bad paper if there is a breakdown in private-credit markets, and he believes that private credit markets will keep expanding and experiencing more demand up until the point "when something breaks." Vicken Yegparian, executive vice president at Stack's Bowers Galleries, discusses the upcoming auction of an 1804 coin — considered to be "the king of the dollars" — that stunned coin collectors because it involves the 16th version of a coin where only 15 copies were known to exist. He explains how the coin was authenticated and why it may draw more than $5 million on the auction block.

Indrani De, head of global investment research at FTSE Russell, says that there are tailwinds in place — from currency fluctuations, valuations and geopolitical changes — that make developed markets outside of the United States look particularly promising for next year. She says in The Big Interview that correlations between domestic and international markets have been greatly reduced in the last two years, which raises the benefits of diversification, and she suggests that spreading money around will pay off in both returns and in lowering portfolio risk, particularly if spending and investing in artificial intelligence slows and stops masking other market weakness.  David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Prudential, discusses the firm's 2025 Global Retirement Pulse Survey, which showed that mass affluent investors around the world feel ready for retirement, but that — perhaps because of their wealth — they haven't actually taken action to ensure that they're properly prepared. This lack of preparation means they haven't secured dependable income for life, nor have they adequately protected their nest eggs against downturns and market changes. That study shows that many investors could use a financial blueprint, and today's show covers that idea too, with Jeff Panik, author of "Your Future Is Now: Your Blueprint for Solving Your Retirement Puzzle." In the Book Interview, he discusses how investors who have amassed money without a plan can implement one around and with the investments they have made, and that planning does not require a complete overhaul. But even as they start to plan, Panik says every investor needs to take a "Financial Life Inventory," which goes beyond calculating net worth to take a complete picture of a person's financial situation.

Sonia Fraher, head of cash management at Vanguard says that while nearly three-quarters of Americans say they will fall short of their saving and spending resolutions for this year, most are optimistic that they can pull off a "resolution rebound" in 2026. Vanguard's survey research showed that 84 percent of Americans expect to make a financial resolution for 2026, with building the emergency fund being the most common goal. In honor of the holidays, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits the Damger Zone pick he is most thankful for this year, due to its success as a short pick.  Rob Williams, managing director of financial planning for Charles Schwab, discusses the firm's research showing that two-thirds of Americans believe they must look beyond traditional investment products like stocks and bonds to further diversify and succeed in today's market. More than 40 percent think the classic 60/40 portfolio is outdated. Plus, Jake Cousineau, author of "Face Your Financial Fears: The Simple Guide to Fixing Your Relationship with Money," discusses how Americans grow up surrounded by money misconceptions that they must overcome to reach their goals. 

It's a day for talking smart holiday shopping, and the show takes that focus to the investment world. John Cole Scott, president of CEF Advisors — the chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance — is back on Black Friday for the fourth straight year looking for big discounts among closed-end fund, and he's got several names that might work for investors looking to make portfolio changes before year's end. He offers up two ideas for municipal-bond funds, two business-development companies and two direct offerings that the market has put on sale and that investors might want to consider wrapping up for their portfolios. Sarah Foster, economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's 2025 Holiday Essentials Index, which found that more than 75% of holiday staples have gotten more expensive since September 2024, which may mean that what is coming home for the holidays this year is inflation. Erik Beguin, founder, Fort Knox Bank, discusses how consumers who think they are protected by one-time codes and changing passwords are still vulnerable to thieves, and he discusses how high-security savings accounts can shore up the defenses without taking much away from yields. Plus, Chuck helps you complete the holiday shopping for the kids without going to the mall, by talking about how you can use small amounts of money to buy fractional shares of your favorite stocks to create a portfolio that will have a long-lasting impact rather than the fleeting adrenaline rush that comes from opening a present. He discusses how he set up portfolios for his children decades ago and how he is arranging portfolios for his baby grandson and for two great nephews.

Tom Stringfellow, chief investment strategist at Argent Trust, says that he expects stock market volatility to increase, especially as the Federal Reserve makes fewer cuts than observers are hoping for, but he doesn't see "a worrisome correction, I just see market testing." Those tests will break some trends in sectors and industries, but shouldn't break the market's ability to post modest gains. In honor of the Thanksgiving holiday being the real start of the holiday shopping season, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks a retail-themed fund as his "ETF of the Week." Sara Enright, senior director of safety and sustainability at Consumer Reports, discusses CR's recently proposed homeowners insurance bill of rights, and points out some of the basics that consumers should know -- but typically don't -- about their policies that insurers often don't disclose because rules don't force them to speak up. Plus, Chuck talks about some things he is thankful for this Thanksgiving, noting that he has had a change in his own attitudes about money, driven by his age, experience, the deaths this year of two people he talked money with and more.  

Marta Norton, chief investment strategist at Empower, says the stock market has high valuations, but notes that it lacks the excessive economic risk-taking and the fear-of-missing-out sentiment that are necessary to create true bubble conditions. But she notes that avoiding a bubble doesn;t mean it's smooth sailing ahead, as she says in Empower's outlook for 2026 that she expects anemic job growth to be a primary economic story. That jobs picture puts the Federal Reserve "between a rock and a hard place and maybe a third hard place," with the labor market making it tough for the central bank to cut rates. As a result, she's suggesting that investors rebalance portfolios, downplay their expectations and anticipate heightened volatility. Julius de Kempenaer, senior technical analyst at StockCharts, says that the market currently is going through a rotation to where "Right now, defense is the play," with money moving to health care, utilities and consumer staples, all defensive sectors. He is expecting the next six to eight weeks to be frothy and to determine whether the recent move away from highs is a blip or a real correction, but he warns that the upside for the Standard and Poor's 500 is "littered with resistance," and "the ease of movement seems to be to the downside."    Plus, in the market Call, Dom Rizzo, portfolio manager for the T. Rowe Price Technology ETF and the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund talks about how he looks for linchpin technologies in growth markets, with improving fundamentals and, hopefully, reasonable valuations, and just how he determines who makes that grade now.

Amar Reganti, fixed income strategist at the Hartford Funds, says "The uncertainty is real," over the potential not only for what the Federal Reserve could do but how the market and economy will respond to whatever decision gets made. Reganti says investors are facing the prospect of rate cuts spurring higher inflation, but a lack of action resulting in a tougher employment market and that both outcomes could make things a lot scarier and nerve-wracking than they are now. Rachel Perez discusses a BestMoney.com survey showing two-thirds of consumers say they lose more money paying annual fees on credit cards than they gain from the benefits and perks on those premium cards. David Trainer, president at New Constructs, puts meals-delivery company DoorDash back into the Danger Zone, noting that recent strong results and a big bounce in the price are masking the real trouble that still exists in the balance sheet and that will eventually result in a much lower share price for the stock.  In the Market Call, Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at Barrack Yard Advisors, explains why he puts much of his focus and emphasis on companies that can "Show me the cash."  

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says the stock market is facing a trifecta of bear-market risks that could lead to "one of the great bear markets of our lifetime," with losses surpassing 40 percent and lasting for as long as 18 months when it finally bursts. Despite that, he says there are ways to "invest through it," and that's precisely what he is doing, because despite bubble conditions, there are pockets of value and there could still be a lot of market upside until the inevitable pop of this balloon. But the talk starts today with an interview recorded at Wednesday's Active Investment Company Alliance Fall Round Table in New York City, with David Tepper of Tepper Capital Management revisiting past selections of some classic funds he has held for years and their prospects for the future, plus his outlook on the potential dangers of private credit, what he is worried about if the economy turns and more. Charles Rotblut, vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors, discusses the latest AAII Sentiment Survey, which showed that bearish sentiment was actually decreasing as the market pulled back from record highs, and how high levels of bearish sentiment — which the market has seen for the last year — are part of what lets Wall Street climb the proverbial "Wall of Worry." In the Market Call, Daniel Dusina, director of investments at Blue Chip Partners, talks about how he goes about finding "unappreciated quality" at a time when the market itself has appreciated to near record levels.

Andrew Foster, founder and chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Growth and Income Fund — says that it's the "bottom of the first or, maybe, bottom of the second inning with respect to how tariffs will play out," but he notes that emerging markets companies have pushed higher prices back on U.S. consumers, which means the story has a lot of twists and turns left to navigate. Foster also says that domestic investors want to use emerging markets -- and foreign currencies -- to diversify portfolios against what lies ahead, noting that over-exposure to the dollar may lead to greater volatility and risk ahead. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, heads to the utilities sector and a long-time established fund for his ETF of the Week. The second half of today's show is interviews from Wednesday's Fall Round Table for the Active Investment Company Alliance, which Chuck attended and spoke at in New York City. The conversation starts with Ryan Paylor, portfolio manager at Thomas J. Herzfeld Advisors, which recently converted a closed-end fund from a focus on companies located in the Caribbean Basin — it was ticker Symbol CUBA — to one focused on collateralized loan obligations. Paylor explains the thinking behind the move and how shareholders reacted to such a drastic makeover. Then, long-time activist investor Phil Goldstein of Bulldog Investors discusses the state of shareholder activism and why there seems to be so much less of it than there was just a few years back. Some of the change is good news for consumers — better fund management — while other reasons make it harder for activist moves to succeed.

David Russell, global head of market strategy at TradeStation, says that as artificial intelligence become less of an economic focus, the market will wake up to potential weakness on Main Street, where "recessionary patterns" are already visible. He is expecting "one of the weaker holiday seasons in a while," and says that a lot of signs that have been viewed as bullish have become much more questionable. He would not be surprised to see the market test October lows — roughly 6,550 on the Standard & Poor's 500 — before year's end.    Nate Miles, head of retirement at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the firm's 2025 Retirement Study, which showed that only six in 10 retirees and near-retirees feel financially secure, a significant decline from just a year ago. The study also showed that investors — who have embraced target-date funds and life-cycle funds as a primary savings option — are looking for more personally tailored investment and retirement-spending solutions.    In the Market Call, absolute-value manager Brian Frank of the Frank Value Fund — who has a history of holding cash when the stock market is highly valued — says that a market flirting with record highs is not discouraging him, as he is fully invested, noting that he is not struggling to find individual stocks that are underpriced and that have a likely catalyst to unlock growth.

Joe Quinlan, head of market strategy for Merrill Lynch and Bank of America Private Bank, says that the U.S. consumer higher-income households "are in great shape heading into 2026," and so long as the Boomers continue spending, the economy and stock market can roll along. Quinlan says that the economy can avoid a recession if the Federal Reserve can avoid policy mistakes, if the U.S. stays out of a difficult trade war and if the extraneous factors mostly stay at bay. Given what the market has weathered in 2025, Quinlan says there is reason to believe the rally can continue, even if results are muted a bit compared to the equity returns of the last three years. Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders, says that investors should not be fighting current trends, but they should be getting cautious in a market where there's not a lot of upside left this year. He expects January to be a telling month for whether the rally can carry deep into 2026, and says that investors looking for bigger gains can still get in on the gold rally, which Vermeulen says still has 25 to 30 percent upside from current levels.   Sandra Block, contributing editor at Kiplinger talks about what she learned about dental care for retirees as she made her own transition toward retirement earlier this year, and the choices consumers face as they weigh Medicare options. And Mark Hamrick discusses a recent BankRate.com survey which found that about half of working American adults expect to be reliant on Social Security benefits to handle necessary expenses when they retire, but more than three-quarters of that working population worries that their promised benefits won't be paid when they reach retirement age.

Gargi Chaudhuri, chief investment and portfolio strategist for the Americas at BlackRock, says the market's recent action represents "a fairly healthy pullback," the kind of periodic "cleansing" that markets go through, and that the recent action is less based on whether earnings can continue to drive valuations higher than it is on nervousness over the Federal Reserve's next move. Chaudhuri says that the current focus on whether the Fed will cut rates again in December is misplaced, because continued earnings growth, gross domestic product numbers and the fundamentals of the stock and bond markets will do more to determine how long the bull market lasts. That long view also coincides with BlackRock's latest "People and Money Survey," which Chaudhuri noted showed that staying invested long-term and riding out markets rewards investors more than trying to time markets. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs, says that agentive artificial intelligence has advanced to where it can provide investors with a real edge when it comes to choosing superior stocks and funds, and he warns that people who don't adopt AI for at least a part of their portfolio will be dooming themselves to below-average returns. He also explains how these forms of AI are different from the ones that are known for giving bad answers to personal-finance questions, which Chuck discussed on the show last week with Robert Farrington of The College Investor. Plus, Peter Krull, director of sustainable investing at Earth Equity Advisors, returns to the show after his recent appearance in the Market Call to discuss his new book, "The Sustainable Investor: Responsible, Impactful, and Values-Driven Investing Strategies and Practices for Financial Professionals." Krull discusses past, current and future forms of "responsible investing."

Buck Klintworth, senior vice president and portfolio manager at Chase Investment Counsel, says the market isn't looking like it will make dramatic moves before the end of the year, but he does expect a "small correction." Because he believes that the underpinnings for the economy are solid and forces like the artificial intelligence boom are backstopping the market, he expects that correction to be a buying opportunity for investors. Tani Fukui, senior director for global economic and market strategy for MetLife Investment Management, says she expects the Federal Reserve to follow through with rate cuts — even as the market seemed to waver in its confidence in cuts on Thursday — and that the move and the coming rate-cut cycle will help the U.S. economy avoid a recession. Josh Duitz, global head of income for Aberdeen — manager of the Aberdeen Total Dynamic Dividend Fund — talks about where he is finding success in generating elevated income at a time when rate cuts are making it harder for investors to earn easy yields. Duitz discusses international investing and whether the rally overseas can continue in the face of reduced currency impacts, where high-flyers like the Magnificent Seven stocks fit in with his portfolio (or don't), and which sectors he is finding most attractive right now. Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, discusses her recent piece on what the release of new tax brackets for 2026 means for investors who are considering Roth IRA conversions. Pinsker notes that the bracket changes will change the math, especially for people who were on the fence about whether a conversion could be worthwhile.

Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, posed 100 personal finance questions to Google AI and came away with 37 "misleading or inaccurate" answers, and while that sounds horrible, it actually represents an improvement of six percentage points over the results Farrington got making the same queries a year ago. Farrington notes that the outcomes are only as good as the inputs, meaning that consumers who don't know the right questions to ask will be more poorly served by artificial intelligence than those who know enough to ask solid questions. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies, discusses "Retirement Throughout the Ages: The American Middle Class," which showed that U.S. adults earning between $50,000 and $199,999 annually are struggling to stay afloat and get ahead when it comes to retirement planning.  Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks to mid-cap stocks with momentum as he makes an offering from Invesco his ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck tackles the subject of 50-year mortgages and how the real problem with the idea may be more on how it addresses housing affordability — or not — rather than the massive amounts of extra interest paid over the life of the ultra-long loans.

Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, says that the stock market has ridden earnings growth to the record highs it has set this year, but she is worried that with valuations at high levels, earnings growth can't sustain higher price-earnings multiple to push the market up further. Guild notes that Robinhood's customers have changed some of their investment habits as market conditions have evolved in the post-Covid market; they're still buying dips, but more on a single-name basis rather than buying broad markets and riding indexes. Further, Guild says she will be watching investor buying behavior during dips to see if there is a fatigue point where their nerves about possible downturns make it that each decline no longer appears to clients like a buying opportunity. Chip Lupo discusses WalletHub's 2025 Household Debt Survey, which showed that high inflation is contributing to rising debt levels in nearly 60% of American households, where more than two in five respondents expect household debt levels to increase in the next 12 months. Plus, Mike Dickson, head of research and quantitative strategies at Horizon Investments, brings his stock-evaluation system to the Market Call.

Matthew Timpane, senior market strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research, says the stock market is entering "the most bullish season of the year," and the bears missed the chance for a big pullback once the market got past mid-October. Now he expects the market to grind higher for the rest of the year, but he notes that things may change once the holiday buzz changes and 2026 moves forward. Stuart Katz, chief investment officer at Robertson Stephens, says that rate cuts will make cash less attractive, which will push a lot of money that has been on the sidelines up the risk spectrum, and he discusses the areas of the bond market that he thinks are poised to benefit from that moving money, as well as the market sectors that he thinks will have leadership in a market that will be up against slowing economic activity. In the Market Call, Peter Krull, director of sustainable investing, for Earth Equity Advisors — author of the new book, "The Sustainable Investor: Responsible, Impactful, and Values-Driven Investing Strategies and Practices for Financial Professionals" — talks about investing within one's values ad how he decides which stocks make that cut for him

Sal Gilbertie, chief executive officer at Teucrium Trading — which runs several commodity specific ETFs, like the Teucrium Soybean fund — says that while tariffs are being blamed for high prices for goods like coffee, cocoa, beef and more, it's actually the weather and long droughts in certain key growing areas that have steadily increased prices over several years. Still, Gilberties says tariffs have had an undeniable impact, some of it negative — with trading partners losing trust in the United States — some of it positive, because commodities are still moving around world markets. He says that investors who can stomach the volatility should be leaning into the headlines for opportunities, rather than fearing bad news impacts. David Trainer, president of New Constructs, says that tech giants are using mountains of cash to develop and build opportunities in artificial intelligence, but he notes that such huge spending can't go on forever while waiting for the payoff, and he identifies Amazon, Meta and Oracle as three of the big players who may not have the capital to win what he calls "the A.I. arms race." In the Market Call, Mark Travis, president and chief executive officer at Intrepid Capital Management, talks about how he looks "for businesses that people need" — like beer, shoes and underwear — but at the right price and discounted cash flow to be consistent, long-term gainers.

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that market flirting with record highs has masked how many companies are actually reaching new lows, but that condition — when new lows outnumber new highs — is a key part of an indicator called the "Hindenburg Omen," a sign that historically shows up in the charts at market tops. It's been seen on the market four times in the last week, along with a similar indicator called the "Titanic Syndrome." Those are warning signs, McClellan says, but even if the rally continues for a while longer, he's expecting struggles in 2026 before a rebound in 2027. Sam Tombs, chief U.S. economist at Pantheon Macro, discusses the struggles he sees for the economy right now, noting that many of the numbers that purport to show strength are not as clear or powerful as they seem. As a result, he thinks "we're in a slow-growth phase for the economy, and that's likely to persist at least for the next six months." Plus, in the NAVigator segment, Seth Brufsky, chief executive officer for the Ares Dynamic Credit Allocation Fund, talks about how the start of rate cuts and a falling interest rate environment impacts high-yield bonds, leveraged loans and collateralized loan obligations, noting that rate-cut times are where active managers can show their mettle by making moves that outperform passive strategies in delivering high current income levels.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says he wouldn't mind a small market setback or breather to calm the nerves, especially because he's used those kinds of moments this year to add to his equity positions, noting that his target for the Standard & Poor's 500 is 7,500 at the end of 2026, a modest but steady gain for next year. Wren favors financials currently for technical reasons, likes industrials for as long as the next decade, and made the strong case for utilities and energy providers as being the growth story for the next quarter century. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi changes things up with the ETF of the Week. Rather than focusing on one fund, he looks at ETF in-flows, which have surpassed a big landmark and will break records for the year. He looks at where all of that money has been flowing, which categories and funds have been the most popular and emerging and more. Tobias Carlisle of the Acquirers Funds — who was on the show last week doing the Market Call — returns to discuss his new book, "Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking," which in some ways equates deep-value investing to fighting a battle, but which also helps to explain why the investment style resonates with many individual investors.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says "people are only going to pay so much for this market," which means that something besides price will have to attract continued investment. That source will be earnings, as Ceci says that strong earnings growth has powered the market this year and will carry it for as long as they stay strong. Ceci says the economy and market will get a boost moving forward from tax policies, the rate-cutting cycle, continued AI capital spending and more, which is keeping the risk of recession low for the next year. Wayne Park, chief executive officer at Manulife John Hancock Retirement, discusses the firm's inaugural Longevity Preparedness Index (done in conjunction with MIT AgeLab), a new benchmark for measuring the readiness of American consumers to live well in older age. The measure looks beyond finances, which is why higher incomes don't improve some overall scores for issues like personal care. In all, the index found that Americans are largely underprepared for living out their retirement, landing a D grade with an average score of 60. Plus, Ardal Loh-Gronager of Loh-Gronager Partners returns to the show after last week's appearance in the Market Call to discuss his recent book, "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing."

Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer for alternative and multi-asset investments at Westwood Holdings Group, says that a stock market that has averaged a 17% annualized gain for well over a decade "is not the equity environment that my dad knew," but while over-sized gains make investors worry that trouble must lie ahead, he thinks the market will roll on for as long as earnings continue to grow. Helfert says there's about a 30 percent chance of a recession in the next 12 months, enough to worry about -- and to prompt investors to diversify -- but not enough to head to the sidelines. With the stock market keeps flirting with record highs, Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, talks about a column he wrote recently for MarketWatch in which he noted that peaking markets don't actually make it any easier on money managers trying to pick winners. Beth Pinsker, financial planning columnist at MarketWatch, details the hard dynamics and impossible decisions she faced when she became financial caretaker for her mom. Pinsker's book, "My Mother's Money: A Guide to Financial Caretaking," is out today and it contains lessons not only for those who will take over affairs for parents, but for seniors who don't want to leave a burden to their children. (Bonus: You will learn the importance of making sure your financial accounts have a "trusted contact.")

Jim Carroll, senior wealth advisor and portfolio manager at Ballast Rock Private Wealth — known as the "Vixologist" on X — says that the Trump Administration is living up to the idea that it can "Make Volatility Great Again," as seen by record stock markets, but notes that the actions have raised uncertainty and made investors nervous. He says the stock market and economy are still "fussing around" with tariffs and other geo-political risks that could send the market for a loop, and says investors should be protecting themselves against a correction, though he notes that movement could be a steep decline in prices or a long period of sideways. David Trainer, president of New Constructs puts another electric-vehicle maker in the Danger Zone, noting that while he dislikes a lot of the metrics for the industry, this company has been a stinker before and is poised to crater again, even as it has rebounded from huge past losses to gain more than 66 percent this year. Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman and head of investment group at Ariel Investments — manager of the Ariel Focus Fund — brings his focused value investing style to the Market Call.  Plus, Chuck discusses the results of his annual Halloween "Cash or Candy, Trade or Treat" experience with the kids, where he gave away two big jackpots and a lot of candy, but double-disappointed a few of the trick-or-treaters.

JoAnne Bianco, senior investment strategist at BondBloxx, says that she doesn't expect there to be a need for a protracted cycle of rate cuts and makes the case that the Federal Reserve and the economy might be best served by stopping after one more cut, even if it waits through December to do it. Bianco says that markets -- particularly equity markets — want rate cuts — want rate cuts but could be overly optimistic about the impact that reductions would have when it comes to promoting spending, helping the labor market and more. Kendall Dilley, portfolio manager, Vineyard Global Advisors says "It's a really healthy bull market right now" with the potential for the Standard & Poor's 500 to top 7,000 by year's end. Dilley added that the charts aren't showing the kind of big tops that suggest that momentum is starting to wane, so while valuations are elevated and "the market has priced in a lot of good news," he still thinks declines should be viewed as buying opportunities. Ravi Chintapalli, portfolio manager on the Nuveen Global Fixed Income team, says that he has never seen a high-yield market that has been higher quality than what he is seeing now. That helps to explain tight spreads, and suggests investors shouldn't shy away from high-yield because they're being compensated for "the true level of default risk in the market."  In the Market Call, Tobias Carlisle, founder of the Acquirers Funds, talks deep-value investing and how it works in a market dominated by a few big names. Carlisle recently wrote a book comparing the value investing tactics of Warren Buffett with "The Art of War" tactics of Sun Tzu.

Bryan Whalen, chief investment officer and head of fixed income at TCW says he's now putting the odds of a recession at 60 percent, down from 80 percent at the start of the year, but he suggests that even in a no-landing scenario, investors can expect dramatically higher volatility as stock and bond markets head into 2026. Whalen pointed out that with rate cuts starting to take hold, investors may want to keep some powder dry for the opportunities he sees ahead as the market responds to how the Fed plays out the cycle. In the Market Call, Ardal Loh-Gronager, founder of Loh-Gronager Partners — the author of "The Perceptive Investor: The Art, Science and Temperament of Successful Value Investing" — discusses his take on value investing, which is a mix of classic Warren Buffett style with a bit more trading and a broad industry-based focus as a starting point. Plus, as investors deal with the latest interest-rate cuts, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, picks an actively managed municipal bond fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Rob Arnott, founding chairman at Research Affiliates, says that classic index instruction has investors buying stocks after they get hot, dropping stocks after losses have occurred and missing out on several percentage points of return in the process. Arnott says the largest stocks earn their place in the index, but that the stocks that move into or out of an index — a process that is actively managed with the most-famous indexes — is where the trouble happens. As for the personal indexes that are arising these days, Arnott says that, in general, you'd be better off letting a cat pick the stocks for you. Olivia Valdes, senior researcher at the FINRA Foundation, discusses their research which shows that consumers and investors are vulnerable to fraud because more than half of them don't recognize the common signs that someone is trying to pull a scam. Plus, Chuck talks about how to calculate the expected value of a bet after a listener raises questions about the lottery option on his Halloween cash-or-candy game, and whether giving kids a second chance — the new twist Chuck is adding this year — doubles the odds of winning.

Christian Chan, chief investment officer, at AssetMark, says that markets should remain favorable for as long as economic conditions stay modestly positive, but he notes that the artificial-intelligence boom is helping to ensure that's the outcome, putting a floor under how much damage can be suffered in any financial storms. Chan says he expects those storms to stop short of a recession and he's not as sure as some observers that the market itself is in a bubble; he expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates, but notes that they won't go too low for too long, which should help the economy move forward without hurting the fixed-income markets. Behavioral finance expert Terrance Odean, a professor at the Haas School of Business at the University of California-Berkeley, discusses what investors do wrong when they are staring down bubbly conditions and how they ought to behave when markets are frothy and the experts are concerned about what the end of a rally will look like. Kathryn Berkenpas, managing director of corporate growth for the CFP Board of Standards discusses the biggest financial regrets from Generation X, whose oldest members are turning 60 this year. A CFP Board of Standards survey of Gen-Xers, showed that nearly half felt they made financial moves that have ultimately cost them at least $100,000 in what they could have saved simply by pursuing better money behaviors.

Ed Cofrancesco, chief executive officer at International Assets Advisory, says there is a disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street, where the economy has been great for stocks but consumers have been feeling the pain. He is hoping to see rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, with the impacts trickling down to Main Street in ways that might perk up some of the soft data and consumer sentiment, and that could help people avoid falling into the trap of spiraling debt. Stefan Sharkansky, creator of The Best Third, discusses his research, which shows that the classic "4% Rule" — where retirees expect to  be set for life financially if they can live by spending no more than 4 percent of their retirement nestegg annually — has two bad potential outcomes, either premature depletion of their portfolio or unnecessary underspending. He dials in on how savers can better view their savings to make more efficient use of their nestegg. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, revisits Warby Parker in The Danger Zone, noting that the eyeglass maker and retailer is popular but that brand-recognition alone isn't enough to make a good stock, particularly if it leads to greater sales without any signs of profits. New Constructus first put Warby Parker in the Danger Zone when it was going through its IPO in 2021. Plus Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics, which showed that economists believe the likelihood of a recession is shrinking, at least for now.

Economist Dave Rosenberg, president of Rosenberg Research, says that his preferred indicators on economic growth are showing a slowing economy, where "the recession may already be starting." He acknowledges that the stock market "hasn't figured this out," but he says — based on the way Treasuries are trading — that the bond market has already figured it out. Rosenberg says that the market has "been in a bubble environment for many, many months," but that it can continue to inflate without popping for a while. "You're investing in an environment where the wind is in your face," he says, "it's not at your back." For a decade now, Chuck has offered the trick-or-treaters in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, and the opportunity to make a trade to try to get a bigger treat. It's his way of teaching basic financial decision-making, where children must consider if the financial prize is worth more to them because it's different and more useful than candy. The game changes in small ways each year, and Chuck is unveiling a new "second chance" option that actually would be a really bad choice for the children. Chuck also talks about how you can do your own scaled-down version of cash-or-candy in your home. Discount-capture investor Rob Shaker, portfolio manager at Shaker Financial Services, says that he's "not seeing anything in the closed-end fund space that would point to any type of bubble conditions," but instead sees generic, seasonal discount-widening caused by the start of year-end tax selling. Still, he says investors should make sure they are comfortable that they can weather those flurries "and readjust to the better things that are on sale and then double-collect on the way up."  Plus Jon Stubbs, analyst at Clever Real Estate talks about the housing market as measured by trends in national statistics, which have shown that homes are now on the market for longer than during the summer, with median home values up slightly but median sale prices up more, suggesting that investors are paying a premium to make a deal now.

Steve Cucchiaro, chief investment officer at 3EDGE Asset Management, says we're in a "market melt-up," the last phase of a rally or bubble that creates a buying climax, but that typically ends with trouble. Cucchiaro says valuations are in one of the three greatest periods of overvaluation they have seen in the last century, making them more dangerous than investors expect. As a result, he is holding more in international stocks than domestic issues and is ramping up gold holdings to 10 to 15 percent of the typical client's portfolio.  David Ellison, portfolio manager and financial services specialist for the Hennessy Funds, says he worries that "The market is becoming the economy," where a big decline in markets could drag the broader economy into a deep recession. Ellison likes the positioning of the financial services industry, but he questions both the popularity and impact of rate cuts, noting that from current levels rate reductions might not be good or healthy for the economy. In honor of Halloween, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a scary fund — a leveraged bullish daily play on a specific sector — his ETF of the Week, noting that these kinds of specialized funds really only work for investors who will oversee their portfolio constantly to make sure that they don't get burned by the "hot sauce" they're adding to their holdings.