Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

Rob Haworth, senior investment strategist at U.S. Bank Asset Management, says that the volatility and headline risks of the first half of 2025 haven't changed the outlook for the market and economy, which can grind through the rest of the year and into 2026 with modest gains. Haworth acknowledges "a lot of questions still to be answered," but he says that most of the answers will be within degrees of expectations, and a lack of surprises should allow the market to grind higher. That said, Haworth said investors will want to be properly diversified to protect themselves against the volatility and the news risks. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carvana back in The Danger Zone, noting that the stock — which he first singled out in April of 2019 — has roared back from a low of $4 per share in December 22 to gain more than 50 percent year-to-date and nearly 150 percent in the last year, rising to a stock valuation "that implies that Carvana will sell as many vehicles as General Motors." Plus Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, on their latest survey research, which showed that 60 percent of Americans are uncomfortable with their current level of emergency savings, and half of Americans don't have enough emergency savings to cover three months' expenses.

Dustin Reid, chief strategist for fixed income at Mackenzie Investments, says he expects the Federal Reserve to hold off on rate cuts in July, but to be moved into making a double cut — half a percent — in September, and worries that the central bank may be waiting too long to act, as the labor market is starting to show some cracks. Reid said a bigger cut might be taken as a positive by the market if inflation hasn't spiked, labor markets are slow but steady and the action suggests that the Fed is trying to stay ahead of the action. That action and uncertainty has Reid favoring intermediate bonds now, with two- to five-year maturities. John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says he is risk-on right now, being fully invested and continuing to ride the wave that started churning after the stock market bottomed out in April. Kosar acknowledges that the market's rebound has been fast and big, and so he's expecting a reversion to the mean that would push him to a risk-off position, ahead of what he considers a foreseeable market tumble. Plus, in The NAVigator segment, Mike Schueller — co-manager of the Allspring Income Opportunities fund — says he foresees a "muddle-through economy," which is actually a good environment for high-yield bonds, which face little default risk at a point where recession has "receded into the background."

David Goodsell, executive director of the Natixis Center for Investor Insight, discusses the firm's 2025 Individual Investor Survey, which shows that investors were so satisfied with the 20-plus percent gains of 2023 and '24 that they are expecting less this year, but they have only dropped their expectations from roughly 17 percent down to about 12 percent, and Goodsell notes that financial advisers sugest those numbers aren't realistic or responsible. Goodsell says he believes the market is heading towards "a new age of diminished expectations." Sociologist and author Juliet Schor discusses her latest book, "Four Days a Week: The Life-Changing Solution for Reducing Employee Stress, Improving Well-Being, and Working Smarter, leaning into whether the business community and the government could ever adopt a massive workplace change on a broad scale. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into current events to examine an advocacy fund with his ETF of the Week, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the "Buy, borrow and die" strategy a financial adviser is pitching to his friend's elderly, wealthy mother.

Daniel Morris, chief market strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, says he sees continued expansion in the United States and a slowing in Europe and other international markets, which contributes to why he is mostly neutral on allocations, as tariff plays and international stimulus efforts and more creates positive potential around the globe. Morris says a neutral stance makes sense because there is so much uncertainty right now that it is hard to have strong convictions about what the market can do next. Indrani De, global head of investment research for FTSE Russell discusses the ongoing Russell Reconstitution — the exercise of changing benchmark indexes to reflect corporate evolutions and avoid surprises — and what the current effort (which becomes final on Friday) reveals about the stock market and the breadth of growth now. Plus Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com, discusses current levels of consumer sentiment which show that nearly two-thirds of Americans are expecting that tariffs will have a negative impact on their personal finances.

Stacie Mintz, head of quantitative equity for PGIM Quantitative Solutions, says that equity valuations in emerging markets are at their most attractive level relative to U.S. stocks in decades. That's not a surprise, as emerging markets have underperformed domestic markets for the last 13 years, but Mintz says the time has come for diversification to pay off. While the headline risks of tariffs, trade wars and geopolitics loom large,she said current values are compelling enough that investors should be comfortable waiting for a payoff when the news cycle calms down. Jasmine Escalera discusses a survey done by LiveCareer which showed that "ghost job postings" — listings for phantom jobs that don't exist — have become a staple of the hiring process for nearly half of all American human-resources  pros. Plus Richard Howe, editor of the Stock Spin-off Investing newsletter, returns to the Market Call, talking about what can make spin-offs attractive, compares the roll-out of subsidiaries to the initial public offering process and discusses howlong spin-off effects linger.

Ed Shill, managing partner at the Wealth Enhancement Group, says he sees the market either continuing to climb the proverbial wall of worry or getting complacent, and he fears that it's the latter after the sharp rebound from April's decline. "Right now the market is overbought," Shill says in the Market Call, where he recommends "putting airbags on," using stops to lock in profits and being prepared to step back from markets until conditions improve. In The Big Interview, Sam Millette, senior investment strategist at Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the Federal Reserve faces a challenge getting the market to understand its motivation for any rate cuts it makes later this year. He expects a rate cut later this year, likely in September, but he says the reaction of the market — whether it gives the classic bullish response or if it reacts as it did in 2024 when cuts had less impact than expected, particularly on bond markets — will depend on what the market thinks is the Fed's motivation for a cut. Plus, Anthony Holds of Holds Wealth Advisors discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2025 Planning & Progress Study, in which nearly 70% of Americans reported that financial uncertainty has made them feel depressed and anxious.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he came into the year expecting that the growth and inflation backdrop would support reasonable corporate earnings that could push the market higher. He still believes that -- despite expecting a slowdown, struggles with increased market volatility and higher inflation as a result of tariff impacts -- and said that modest earnings growth will result in single-digit equity gains for the rest of the year. Levitt made the case for expanded international investments, but said he would lean into quality as a factor, noting that high-grade companies will give the most shelter if the storm clouds deliver more trouble than Levitt and Invesco are currently forecasting. Certified financial therapist Nate Astle discusses a Beyond Finance study which showed the deep connections between financial strain and emotional well-being, suggesting that money isn't just a numbers game but a mental-health issue. Plus John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, answers listener questions about closed-end funds and whether premiums and returns of capital are as bad for investors as they are cracked up to be, whether interval funds are worth the illiquidity risk and more.

Julia Hermann, global market strategist at New York Life Investments, says she is concerned about market volatility for the remainder of the year, especially as tariff impacts work their way further into the economy and as we see some resolution on their status. While tariffs pose the risk of creating an exogenous shock — precisely what Hermann worried about triggering a recession when she last visited the show in February — she says that recession risk now is actually lower than it was when trade policies were made public in early April. She also discusses the firm's 2025 MegaTrends report, which looks at global debt investing, talking about how deficit spending and other concerns will impact credit markets over the next decade.  Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, checks in ahead of today's Fed meeting and announcement on what he expects from central bankers for the remainder of the year and whether cuts — whenever they start — will have the classic result investors are clamoring for. Plus Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a play on the market's recent momentum with his pick for the "ETF of the Week."

It's a tale of two forecasts on today's edition of Money Life, as two experts come to very different conclusions of how 2025 will play out. In The Big Interview, Paul Christopher, head of global investment strategy for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute says he expects the market to drop "5 to 10 percent easily" as tariffs, accompanying inflation and a slowing economy take hold during the third quarter and stick around for at least six months. Christopher notes that surprises could push the market down even further, back to or past April lows, but he noted that he'd be buying there, because he believes the United States was oversold early this year and will represent a particularly good value once it digests the expected downturn. In the Talking Technicals interview, however, Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, sets a 7000 target for the Standard & Poor's 500, up about 20 percent from current levels in the next 12 months. Fox says the sell-off in April did a lot of the "technical damage" necessary to set up a rally, and has us now at a point where "the path of least resistance is  higher." Fox's forecast, however, also is based on solid fundamentals, which he believes can overcome the current headline risks that are dominating the landscape now. Plus Drake Shadwell discusses the latest research from Clever Real Estate showing the current trends on how long houses are staying on the market and what that means for the strength or weakness of the economy.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says that "Asset classes don't die, they just go to sleep for awhile," and they wake up when there are changes to the macroeconomic backdrop. He says that domestic strategies about trade, tariffs and global defense represent that background change, which is why he's recommending diversification, and considering commodities, international stocks and more. Schutte says he's expecting rate cuts late in the year and thinks the economy can avoid recession, but not a slowdown.  David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, finishes the firm's three-week look at troubling dividend trends, this week focusing on "dividend traps," companies where the current price is so high that a big decline would mean that the dividend isn't worth sticking around for. Previously, New Constructs featured "fake dividend stocks" and "false dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone. Plus economist Brian Lewandowski of the University of Colorado Boulder looks at the June 2025 Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics, out today, which showed that economists expect sluggish economic growth and persistent, higher inflation into 2026; on average,  the economists felt those conditions were not likely to create a recession.

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial says he expects the market has enough momentum to break through to new record highs, and soon. Led by tech stocks, Turnquist expects the move off the April lows to continue, though he acknowledges that the macro backdrop "is extremely messy." If the market can overcome trade uncertainties, Turnquist says that when new highs are achieved three months apart, it is typically a good sign that a volatile market can continue overcome bad news and continue upward trends. The NAVigator segment features an interviewed taped in New York at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum with Tonnie Wybensinger, head of government relations for the Small Business Investors Association, an industry advocacy group who discusses current legislation that would give BDC investors a tax break and how legislation on esoteric subjects like business-development companies gets passed. Natalie Iannello, discusses a Howdy.com survey which showed that the average American now believes they need $105,000 a year to live comfortably, which is a problem when you consider that other research shows the average American salary at about $66,000. Plus, it's Chuck birthday, and he shares a birthday wish for his financial situation, and yours.

Mitchel Penn, managing director at Oppenheimer & Co. — interviewed at the Active Investment Company Alliance BDC Forum in New York on Wednesday — says that credit losses for business development companies during the first quarter of 2025 were more than double the level they have been at for the last few years. He says some of that increase could be attributed to the market's reaction to government policies, but that it also could be that interest rates have stayed higher for so long now that they are starting to create credit-quality issues. He said BDCs can still deliver returns in the range of 9% moving forward, though he warned that an increasing number of business-development companies may struggle to earn their dividends, making it important for investors to be avoid simply chasing a high yield. Also from the BDC Forum, Bob Marcotte, president at Gladstone Capital Corp., discussed how government policies are encouraging business investment and capital expenditures which should create outstanding conditions for private credit, and therefore BDCs, to shine. Plus, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, checks in with a short-duration Treasury fund that uses options to goose its yield as his ETF of the Week, and Chuck discusses the growing threat to investors and the economy from breakdowns and cuts impacting the way the country's economic statistics are tracked and maintained.

Joe Quinlan, head of CIO market strategy for Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, says the market "got wrong-footed coming into January," expecting a pro-business administration but stumbling instead due to the tariffs, but he says that as the economy starts to get to the other side and have some clarity, he still sees the Standard & Poor's 500 hitting the same goals his team set for it at the beginning of the year at 6,600. While he would like to see the market make and hold new highs to prove that the rebound from April lows can hold, he says that there will not be a recession this year or next without some man-made event like the Federal Reserve making a mistake by moving rates too much or too soon. While Quinlan is confident that there won't be a recession, most Americans disagree; Emily Fanous discusses a survey done for Howdy.com which showed that more than half of Americans think a recession is in the offing — within the next year — and that many are starting to change financial habits to prepare for that downturn now. Plus, veteran international fund manager Bernie Horn of Polaris Global Value talks stocks in the Market Call.

Charles Rotblut, vice president for the American Association of Individual Investors — the keeper of the group's sentiment and asset-allocation surveys — discusses how investors are becoming increasingly neutral in their sentiment but increasingly aggressive in their investment plans. Neutral sentiment — the expectation that the market will remain flat over the next six months — has been on the rise, as Americans feel better about the market without necessarily being optimistic; meanwhile, their asset allocations are taking on more stocks. Mostly, however, Rotblut notes that most investors should keep their emotions in check and let the headlines play out, mostly riding out the storm with a long-term investment plan in place. Veteran investment adviser Stephen Akin, founder of Akin Investments, mixes technical analysis with fundamental stock details in the Money Life Market Call, and Chuck answers a listener's question about retirement-savings basics, which tax-advantaged accounts to use and  how to prioritize your savings.

Dan Carter, senior portfolio manager at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that the bond market "is pricing in a very benign outcome for everything that has been going on and all of the risks that are out there," and the stock market mostly seems to be agreeing with that assessment. While Carter's forecast calls for slow growth, he thinks the chances are that it stops short of a recession, and that any downturn is likely to be short-lived as the market and economy digest the headlines and move on. Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs, puts "fake dividend stocks" in The Danger Zone, building on the idea of "false dividend stocks" that David Trainer, the company's president, highlighted a week ago. Pamela Ladd discusses an American Institute of CPAs survey which found that women are markedly more concerned than men about the deterioration of their financial situation in the last 12 months, and Chuck goes off the news on how the Labor Department recently changed its guidance concerning cryptocurrencies in retirement plans, and whether that will result in more unsophisticated investors loading up their 401k plans with Bitcoin.

Technical analyst Willie Delwiche, the founder of Hi Mount Research, says that "New highs are the most bullish thing that stocks can do," and he says investors need to see a return to record-high levels for proof that the current rebound is more than just a bear-market rally. He expects the market to be held hostage by headlines and range-bound — bouncing between the market's February peak and the April post-tariff-announcement lows — until there is some clarity on tariffs, interest rates and more. He expects large-cap growth stocks to keep leading the way domestically, and says that the international rally has room to continue because money has been rotating away from U.S. assets toward more global positions. Michael Grant, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments — co-manager of the Calamos Long/Short Equity & Dynamic Income Trust — says that current market conditions have made it that bonds are no longer a natural working hedge for market downturns, with downside risk that can be worse than what stocks are facing. Eric Lutton, co-chief investment officer at Sound Income Strategies — manager of the Sound Enhanced Fixed Income ETF — talks business-development companies, real estate investment trusts and more in the Market Call.

Andy Wells, chief investment officer at Sanjac Alpha, says that investors might want to put a collar on their enthusiasm, whether that involves a hunger for interest rate cuts or double-digit stock market returns. In a wide-ranging Big Interview, he says that he doesn't expect the Federal Reserve to make rate cuts, notes that he thinks international stocks have profited from turmoil but are less promising for the future, and says that the domestic market — helped by a strong economy — should be able to hold marginal, single-digit gains for this year and have small gains moving forward for the next few years. Meanwhile, he says investors should lean into the money they can earn from bonds, while being cautious about long-duration paper. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into the strong international markets, picking an actively-managed Fidelity fund as his ETF of the Week. Plus Ted Rossman discusses a BankRate survey showing Americans' increasing disdain for the tipping culture and how they are fighting back against what they perceive as increased pressure to leave tips, and Chuck answers a listener's question about picking a spot bitcoin ETF.

Veteran market-timer Brad Lamensdorf, manager of the Ranger Equity Bear ETF and of a new market-neutral hedge fund, says that the market's outsized gain of the last few years has set it up for a long period of sideways and heavy volatility while high valuations settle into something more reasonable. He's not calling for a recession — and he thinks there will be plenty of opportunities for savvy stock-picking — but he says the market will be much less comfortable for investors than it has been over the last few years. Jordan Rizzuto, managing partner at GammaRoad Capital Partners — which assesses market and economic strength to determine broad asset allocations — explains how the firm came into 2025 with all of its measures being bullish, only to see those indicators start to turn so that by mid-March its key measures were negative; that had only happened four times before, each pre-saging significant market downturns. After the stock market recouped the tariff tantrum losses, one measure has turned positive, and Rizzuto notes that times of mixed indicators are when the changes are most tenuous. As a result, Rizzuto says current conditions should make investors cautious and defensive as they watch current economic and market headlines play out. Plus Chuck goes off the news to discuss the "Credit Card Competition Act," which has been tucked into some other legislation winding through Washington, and which could dramatically impact the future availability of loyalty and cash-back programs.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that there is opportunity for investors to "eek out a mid-single-digit type of return this year," provided that they can stomach high levels of volatility along the way. Specifically, McKnight says that he expects domestic stock markets to be the leader in the second half of the year, most notably in comparison to international developed markets, which have been a bright spot thus far in 2025. McKnight expects the performance of foreign stocks to fade, while mid-cap domestic stocks pick up sharply. McKnight also expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates two or three times late in the year, noting that "there's really not a need to initiate more cuts right now," which will make the move more effective as the economy slows while it digests trade policies and more. Kathy Kristof, founder and editor at SideHusl.com, discusses how people can get the most from side jobs, noting that they can be a gateway to second careers, semi-retirement life changes or a means to achieving a specific financial goal, but how the best way to achieve those ends involves some detailed advance planning and thought on how to make the most of your skills and assets. Plus, the Weird Financial News returns, and digs into some of the financial issues behind a few recent news stories where the money angle was largely ignored by the mainstream media.

Brian Jacobsen, chief economist at Annex Wealth Management, says that for all of the concerns that tariffs have created for the economy, the situation playing out in the courts now has put a cap on how much can be done that reduces the chance of recession. Jacobsen says that the bond market is signalling potential concerns now while the stock market is suggesting that "everything is fine," and he notes that both messages can be correct amid uncertainty around inflation, government debt levels and more. Jacobsen also discusses the sentiment numbers, which suggest that consumers are miserable, but he says that Americans aren't yet reflecting that attitude with their spending habits. Yetin a Survey Said interview to open the show, Chip Lupo analyzes the latest WalletHub Economic Index, which showed that consumer optimism is plummeting and that it is starting to impact those spending decisions. Plus David Trainer, president at New Constructs, introduces the concept of "fake dividend stocks" in the Danger Zone this week, noting that a popular real estate trust focused on data centers has a decent dividend but is so overpriced that investors will wind up losing more money holding the stock than they earn from the dividends that the stock pays out. He says this is part of a trend — which he plans to cover in the Danger Zone — of "false dividends, fake dividends and dividend traps."

Jim Thorne, economist and chief market strategist at Wellington-Altus Private Wealth, says the target he was setting for the stock market entering 2025 holds, and that means 7,000 on the Standard & Poor's 500 "is doable this year, and I think we will rally nicely into the mid-term elections." Thorne believes the economy can avoid a recession, which will slowly help to turn the soft data as consumers and investors regain confidence, which — coupled with interest rate cuts which he says are overdue — will keep the United States markets not only moving up but the best place to invest in the world. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, looks at two mainstream media articles that named "the best closed-end funds" and digs into the data to compare those picks to his own — made on previous appearances on The NAVigator — to see how well the one-size-fits-all advice actually suits investors. It's a lesson in evaluating funds, but also on sizing up the sources of investment recommendations. Plus, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's latest survey on home affordability and homeowner regrets, which not only showed that Americans are struggling in many cases to buy homes, but they often regret how much they paid and the costs of maintenance once they get one. 

John Lekas, president and senior portfolio manager at Leader Capital Corp., says that focusing on the numbers rather than the headlines shows a market that has the potential to gain 5 to 10 percent before year's end, with solid gains in the bond market as well, particularly in collateralized mortgage obligations. Lekas says he's not worried about inflation remaining sticky because stocks often perform well during inflationary times; he thinks the dollar will get 10 percent weaker over the course of the year — and notes that the dollar is his primary worry — but he notes that the dollar's change is not convincing him to invest internationally. He's still sold on the domestic market, and says the currency volatility makes the international picture murkier and less attractive. Kelley Wright, editor at Investment Quality Trends, discusses value stocks for the long haul in the Market Call, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, leans into the changing market conditions by picking an active thematic rotation fund for his ETF of the Week.

Laurence Kotlikoff, professor of economics at Boston University and the founder of Maxifi.com — which helps investors bring economics into their financial planning decisions — says investors who have spent decades thinking the stock market rebounds from every dip and decline could be in for a different story with a coming recession, and he thinks they should be trying to lock in their standard of living rather than focusing on historic rates of return. To that end, he says he has cut his personal equity exposure from 60 percent of the portfolio to 20-25 percent. "I do see only downside risk from what's going on," Kotlikoff says. "Even if there is nothing changed on average, the uncertainty itself is enough to produce a recession and a big drop in the stock market." Ted Rossman discusses a recent Bankrate.com survey which showed that more than half of Americans say they will spend less on discretionary items like travel, dining out and live entertainment, but he also notes how plans to limit spending often fail to translate into action and reality. Plus, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to turn the portfolio of his younger self into something more age appropriate and mature.

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that today's heightened volatility should have investors spreading their bets, "because the world is so unsettled right now that it's hard to have conviction to lean into one position, one asset class or one investment all on one side of the boat at one time." He says the market has ridden out a storm but isn't settled, and investors will want to extend their international investments to get good values, but will want to capitalize on premiums currently available in bonds, will want to diversify geopolitical risk with gold and will want to be selective on domestic stocks as they watch the tariff and economic situations play out. Plus journalist Sara Bongiorni, who wrote a book in 2007 called “A Year Without Made in China,” which chronicled her efforts to simply avoid goods made in China for 12 months, discusses how hard she thinks it will be for Americans to minimize the impact of tariff policies, noting that certain industries — from shoes to lamps to the materials needed to celebrate July 4 — are virtually impossible to buy from any place but China, and she notes that the efforts it takes to avoid Chinese goods also can be extreme, leaving consumers with no easy alternatives.

Jack Janasiewicz, senior vice president and portfolio strategist at Natixis Investment Managers, says the market is in the middle of "one big range trade, and we're probably a lot closer to being at the top of the range rather than the bottom," which means there is more likely room to move down from here rather than to post big gains. Janasiewicz says the the slowing economy needs more time to work through the hard data, which will take time, and will likely lead to a volatile market within the current range. Janasiewicz says the market must also deal with short-term concerns over the weakening dollar, but says he think those worries are overblown when it comes to their long-term impact; like most analysts right now, he likes gold as a dollar diversifier to help ride out the issues. Brian Griggs, head of portfolio strategy and solutions at Nuveen, says that investors have long had too much dependence on large-cap domestic stocks and an over-reliance on duration in fixed-income allocations, which is leading to painful portfolio moves caused by today's stressed stock and bond markets. He talks about making small-but-appropriate portfolio tweaks to lower portfolio volatility and diversify portfolios to improve their investment return and comfort level. Plus we revisit a recent question that Chuck answered from a listener who must decide which investments they will sell in order to raise some cash to pay for one-time additional expenses.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that investors appear divorced from fundamentals, buying dips, chasing rallies and generally hoping for a lot of things to go right as the market climbs "a huge wall of worry" and mostly ignores that earnings growth forecasts of 12 percent entering the year are now being predicted at about 7 percent. Sosnick expects interest rate cuts later this year, but notes that they will be made from a position of economic weakness, and he also thinks the stock market is much more likely to re-test its April lows — right after tariff policies were announced — than to set new record highs, noting that just the conditions that are clear and aren't muddled by uncertainty should make investors think "Buckle in for volatility." Just over a month after making an actively managed commodities fund the ETF of the Week, Todd Rosenbluth head of research at VettaFi, turns his focus back to commodities, this time highlighting an index-based option from Aberdeen Investments. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about investing in private credit and why he has repeatedly questioned experts about the potential for trouble in that emerging investment arena, which those money managers routinely have downplayed in their answers.

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, says that investors watching headlines about the economy, the weakening dollar and more need to realize that policy shifts and global changes play out over long stretches of time, so that investors should react in small, modest ways. For Zaccarelli, that has included adding gold to the portfolio as a dollar diversifier and reducing risk while waiting to see how the economy unfolds and creates chances to be opportunistic buyers in areas like small-cap stocks and more. Rachel Perez discusses a survey done by Secure Data Recovery which looks at Americans' obsession with tracking their data — from hours sleeping to weight to all things financial — which found that 70 percent of the Americans who track their spending (and nearly two-thirds of those who track savings) say that watching and analyzing the numbers makes them anxious. Plus retired economics teacher David Mayer discusses his new book, "Economics in Plain English," and why in challenging times there seems to be trouble coming up with standard definitions for common terms like "tariff."

Karl Mills, partner at Cerity Partners, says investors have survived all kinds of events that seem as bad or worse than anything they are facing now, which is a reason to "stay along for the ride," even if that means moving to the slow lane — where he is positioned now — and being moderately defensive. Mills says he looks at current events "like friction," in that the "don't  prevent things from happen, but they make it harder for things to happen" by slowing growth, raising prices and cutting into sales, which will dampen market results while they play out. Mills notes that domestic market valuations remain high, international markets are priced more attractively and also benefit from the low expectations investors have of how foreign investments will turn out amid ongoing tariff questions.George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, discusses the potential short- and long-term outcomes resulting from last Friday's downgrade of the United States' credit rating by Moody's. While the downgrade implies that the U.S. is a bigger credit risk than it seemed — which could make some investors expect higher interest payments to buy government bonds — Bory notes that this move was largely expected and is more a warning of potential future problems than a concern for current fixed-income investors. Plus, Tim Koller, co-author, "Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies" discusses how current conditions — much like Covid times — are changing long-term business-valuation prospects for companies.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3Edge Asset Management. says the uncertainty about tariff policy — which has pushed uncertainty over interest-rate and monetary policies nearly out of sight — has made it particularly hard for investors to decide where to go with their money now. While the hard economic data is good, Folts notes that the concern is how quickly it may change once tariff chaos hits consumer prices; the result is that he's splitting his equity assets 50-50 between domestic and international stocks, and is looking at short-duration bonds and gold  to hedge the stock exposure. Selma Hepp, chief economist at Cotality, discusses the latest National Association for Business Economics Business Conditions Survey, released today, which shows that economists' share Folts' concern about the coming months, with 75 percent of the survey respondents putting the probability of a recession in the next year at 25 percent. Just 15 percent of economists were that strong on recession chances in January. Plus David Trainer, president of New Constructs, puts a digital payment technology company in the Danger Zone for the third time, and Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, discusses her new book, “Hate the Game: Economic Cheat Codes for Life, Love and Work.”

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Ocean Park Asset Management, says the stock market is pricing solid corporate earnings and generally strong economic growth momentum, but those gains haven't ended the uncertainty around tariff policies. While the market seems to think the impacts will be muted, St. Aubin says we are in a waiting period to see how consumers, markets and economies are truly impacted by tariffs, and the generally positive view leaves more potential downside risk that investors should guard against. Mark Gatto, co-chief executive officer at CION Investment Group, discusses how private markets have been reacting to the policy turmoil and how they have been steadier and less volatile than public markets amid the broad market swings caused by current events. Plus Adam Bierman, a founder of MedMen — one of the earliest public entrants into the marijuana business — discusses his book "Weed Empire: How I Battled Gangsters, Investment Banks, and the Department of Justice to Build the Cannabis Industry in America."

Andrew Foster, chief investment officer at Seafarer Capital Partners — manager of the Seafarer Overseas Growth Fund — says emerging markets are poised to thrive in an environment where the dollar is weakening against not only foreign currencies but gold, Bitcoin and "a bag of Doritos." Foster says that the fundamentals are improving for emerging markets, which are showing the potential for a second consecutive year of 12 percent growth in earnings despite tariff and trade concerns. He says stronger stock profits combined with currencies getting stronger against the dollar is "a good setup" for investors looking to diversify a portfolio. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, also talks international investing, going abroad — though to developed markets rather than emerging markets — with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Plus, Chuck talks about how investors might want to adjust portfolio fits — and follow the advice from recent guests — now that the market has bounced back and crossed into positive territory for the year, reversing the big drops that occurred when tariff policies were first announced.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says he expects gold to trade between $3,100 and $3,500 for the remainder of the year, but is making the bullish case for new record price levels as high as $3,900 an ounce, noting that he believes the new bottom level for gold is $3,000 an ounce, up by $1,000 in the last year. Milling-Stanley says gold has been working well as a geo-political hedge, providing ballast to portfolios that have been whipsawed by current economic policies, but he acknowledges that gold has not done a great job in its traditional role as a counter-weight to inflation, because inflation levels have not been high enough for long enough for gold to deliver in that role. Kristy Akullian, head of iShares investment strategy for the Americas at BlackRock, says that Tuesday's consumer price index numbers didn't show the impact of tariff-related price increases, but those could impact the numbers as soon as next month; meanwhile, the current CPI print should encourage the Federal Reserve to stand pat on interest rates and might encourage investors to make a small move up the risk spectrum, focusing on quality and low-volatility investment factors rather than simply looking to minimize volatility. Plus Kerry Sette discusses the latest consumer research out from Voya Financial, which showed that more than one in three working Americans say that the current economic uncertainty and the potential for higher prices caused by tariff policies is severely impacting their ability to save for retirement.  

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at BNY Investments, says that Monday's temporary halt to the tariff battle between the United States and China significantly reduces the potential for a recession, but it doesn't create the clarity that investors and business leaders are seeking. He believes the U.S. will continue to deliver solid results long-term, but warns that the road to those long-term gains is likely to be bumpy, and even notes that "for now, cash looks pretty attractive." Larry Tentarelli, editor at Blue Chip Daily Trend Report, says that the market's gains Monday continue a trend that has been building since the market bottomed after "Liberation Day." He says the recent moves have crossed trend lines and moved the Nasdaq out of bear-market territory and the recent gains have more room to run. Plus, Paula Fleming, chief spokesman for the Better Business Bureau of Eastern Massachusetts, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont, talks about avoiding summer scams around roofing, home construction and more.

Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group, says the stock market over-reacted to the downside over tariff announcements and that investor sentiment was so sour that it flashed big buying signals to him. Now that there has been some easing of tariff tensions with the United States and China announcing a deal on Monday, Leger says he thinks the market can push through the trouble, sustain a 2 percent growth rate and work through volatility to end the year with the Standard & Poor's 500 in the 6,500 range, about 15 percent up from where it started the day. David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts FreshPet back in the Danger Zone, noting that the stock has a franchise that might attract potential buyers, but it has a business that can't see a clear path to profitability as it exists now. David Brady, president, Brady Investment Counsel talks stocks in the Money Life Market Call. 

David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, says that using tariffs "is like throwing a grenade as an offensive weapon when you are in a small room. You are much more likely to damage yourself than anybody else," which is why he is expecting the Trump Administration to back away from its heavy demands rather than go into a trade war. Despite being "one Tweet away from a solution," Kelly worries that the economy will suffer damage — particularly if it's not cleared up soon — but he notes that he does believe a recession is in the offing, with the good news being that he thinks that slowdown will be shallow and short-lived, passing by the end of the year. Peter Chung, director of research at Presto Research, a firm that trades digital assets, checks in on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and discusses their strong rebound since taking a nosedive along with the stock market heading into "Liberation Day" and through the subsequent downturn; he discusses how digital assets are being impacted by tariff concerns. Plus Andrew Kohl, portfolio manager for Aberdeen Investments' Total Dynamic Dividend and Global Dynamic Dividend funds, says investors can find strong payouts and good valuations buying foreign dividend-paying stocks, noting that many companies can keep rolling regardless of trade policy outcomes in the coming months. He also names two of his favorite dividend plays for the current market.

Economist Daniel Altman — who publishes the Daniel Altman's High Yield Economics newsletter — says that the Federal Reserve and its chairman Jerome Powell provided more certainty than the market was expecting on Wednesday by effectively confirming that fighting inflation, rather than unemployment, is Job One. That means interest rates will stay higher for longer, with cuts not occurring until late this year or into 2026. Altman worries about the potential for stagflation and says that the job market may be weaker than the numbers are suggesting, but he does believe the worst-case outcomes can be avoided with appropriate policy decisions. Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist at Allianz Investment Management, says that the soft economic data like consumer confidence suggests that the economy is headed into a big slowdown, but the hard data isn't validating the biggest worries yet. Ripley says fundamentals remain strong, and that there are some plusses — like falling energy prices — that have been overlooked amid the dire headlines. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, makes a brand new fund that is focused on hedge-fund activity his "ETF of the Week," noting the fund's potential for diversifying the average portfolio and for running against market trends.

Economist Steven Durlauf, director of the Stone Center for Research on Wealth Inequality and Mobility at the Harris School of Public Policy Studies at the University of Chicago, says that the federal budget deficit is the biggest source of the country's trade deficit, meaning politicians have failed "to seriously address the relationship between what the government wishes to do and how much it costs." If politicians can't cut budget deficits and, potentially, raise taxes, Durlauf says, tariffs won't fix the problem, and will cause new troubles. Durlauf sees the tariffs creating a one-time price hike of 2 to 3 percent, he expects unemployment to rise by about 1 percent, and he expects stagflation while the government sorts out tariffs and ultimately settles on lower levels than have been in current headlines. Howard Dvorkin, chairman at Debt.com, talks about how consumers who were already acting stretched are likely to respond to feeling the pinch of tariff-induced price hikes, and whether that will be the thing that gets consumers to stop spending. He has advice on what consumers should do to avoid getting caught in a debt spiral in this environment, and how the market is likely to respond to rate cuts when they happen later this year. Plus, Chuck answers a question from a listener who is facing expenses that require him to sell some securities to raise cash, and he wants to know how to decide the pecking order on which assets get the axe and where in his asset allocation they come from. 

Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial, says that while the economy is starting to point towards likely outcomes — an economic slowdown that leads to stagflation but likely stops short of recession — the extremes are still possible. That means the outcomes run from a potential trade war to a no-landing scenario until at least 2026. Roach discusses the challenges faced by international economies and markets right now, as well as whether stagflation or recession is worse for consumers. Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, discusses what he expects to hear from the Federal Reserve later this week, but also notes that investors who are scared of the current markets can find safe havens in banking products, once again creating CD ladders that can deliver above-inflation returns while also dealing with rate cuts likely to arrive later this year. Plus Robert Farrington, founder of The College Investor, discusses the end of student-loan relief that has been in place for the last five years, with more than 40 million Americans now facing consequences if they can't repay student loan debt. He talks about what borrowers can do to ease the burden and reduce its impact on their finances.

Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., says she expects the housing market to remain sluggish for as mortgage rates remain above 6 percent; while she expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates during the second half of the year, she's not expecting conditions to change much. That said, she noted that First American's Housing Recession Indicator — based on the trends of eight economic variables — is not flashing red, largely because new home sales have remained strong enough to overcome the other headwinds that home builders are facing. David Trainer, founder and president, New Constructs, puts electric-vehicle maker Rivian back in the Danger Zone; the stock first appeared there as an IPO and is way down since, but Trainer questions whether there is any way to hit the brakes on what he sees as a slide that ends near zero. Lester Jones, chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association, discusses the latest Beer Purchasers' Index, which is an economic buzzkill as it shows continued contraction as buyers are increasingly pessimistic about prospects for the summer and fall. Plus Chuck responds to two listeners concerned with the show's balance and — by revisiting one of last week's guests — provides a reminder that politics and portfolio strategies don't mix well.

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says that for all of the tumult and headlines, he still believes the market shows signs that it will still reach 6600 on the Standard & Poor's 500, the level he was expecting at the start of the year. That's up by more than 15 percent from current levels. Johnson acknowledges that the voyage will remain more "noisy" than he expected, but he says conditions "are more normal than many people realize." As a result, he's almost fully invested, counting on making money by climbing the proverbial Wall of Worry. Danielle Poli, portfolio manager at Oaktree Capital Management, says the credit market is delivering returns that are close to the historic levels of equities, but says the current set-up is reminiscent of times in the early 2000s when credit "smoked" equities. With high-yield bonds earning around 8 percent and private credit showing significant demand, Poli says that while credit can be "a great place to hide out," investors can expect even more from it now. Poli says that credit can be more than just "a great place to hide out;" in talking with corporate executives, Poli says she now expects a slower economic environment, with the potential for higher inflation from tariffs, creating the kind of environment where "you're going to want to be in credit over equities." Plus Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the group's latest survey of investor sentiment is showing numbers "that you'd expect to see if there's a bad bull market," with uncertainty being priced into the market and into investor expectations. He also discusses an AAII Journal article highlighting the changing ways that investors are using cash in their portfolios.

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, returns to Money Life today as the firm introduces the RSM US Recession Monitor — a comprehensive scorecard relying on more than 20 indicators to track the health of the economy — which is showing a 55 percent chance of recession, a danger level that Brusuelas says will go higher if current tariff and trade policies continue as announced. While he is optimistic about potential rollbacks in those policies, Brusuelas says the current conditions would be considered recessionary regardless of the party in power in Washington, but are exacerbated more by policy than they have been during times of recession triggers like an oil price shock.Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, brings a Pimco actively managed multi-sector bond fund back as the ETF of the Week, noting that the fund is a strong diversifier and can goose yields now, at a time when investors are looking for safe havens but might want bond managers to manage into the rapidly changing market conditions. Plus, more from the archives with investment legend Jack Bogle — who founded Vanguard 50 years ago today and who appeared on the show a decade ago talking about the firm's 40th anniversary; today's excerpts, culled from three different appearances on the show, include comments from 2016 on the first Trump Administration that stand up particularly well against the test of time.

Money Life celebrates it's 13th anniversary by looking at the past, the present and the eternal, digging into the archives for excerpts from a 2018 conversation with Jack Bogle that remains completely relevant — and perhaps moreso — despite the passage of time. Bogle — the founder of The Vanguard Group — who popularized index investing and was routinely called "Saint Jack" in the investing world, talks about how he invested and built his personal portfolio, saying that he favored the simple and domestic over the complicated and worldwide, but also talks about the evolution of ETFs, changes to the way people perceive indexing and more. With the show now in its 13th year, Chuck also gives a little 'bar mitzvah speech,' discussing the lessons he says are most important and prevalent from 13 years, over 3,250 shows and more than 10,000 interviews. Plus Nancy Prial, co-chief executive office and senior portfolio manager at Essex Investment Management talks small-cap investing in the Market Call.

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, says that he has lowered his forecast for economic growth to 0.5 percent, while raising his forecast for inflation to 3.5 percent; that combination means stagflation, and it's starting to happen now and could turn into recession if the growth slowdown is worse than expected. Rick notes that "No one wins trade wars" and notes that if the current situation plays out into one, that trade problems triggering huge downturns would seem to be a classic 100-year event. While he says the damage can be averted if economic policy changes are softened or mitigated, Rick says he worries that the impacts of current events could last as long or longer than the economic impacts of Covid. Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, discusses the unprecedented action in the Dow Jones Industrial Average on April 17, when United Healthcare dropped 22 percent and, by itself, caused a big drop in the benchmark. He analyzes what that means for the Dow as a benchmark, but also talks index construction — and how investors should consider benchmarks — in light of the rapid growth of the Mag 7 stocks relative to the rest of the market. Plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how to sell some gold coins they received as an inheritance.

Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, says that while gold took a big stumble last week, he doesn't believe the strong rally to start the year is over. Further, with gold trading near record highs but oil trading in the range of $70 a barrel, he believes investors will find greater opportunity in gold-mining stocks than in physical gold itself. Coupled with demand behind heightened heightened because gold is historically an asset for uncertain times, and Millman said that while he thinks there may be more volatility moving forward, gold will continue to trend higher. David Trainer, founder/president at New Constructs. puts PPE maker Lakeland Industries in the Danger Zone, noting that these times are much different from when the stock was flying high during the pandemic. Ryan Butler,  senior editor at Covers.com, talks about the early impact that tariffs have had on the gaming industry and what he's watching for as trade policies play out, plus Chuck looks at the first 100 days of Trump Administration 2.0 and discusses how the numbers have played out on everything from inflation and consumer prices to the personal savings rate, home and auto sales, mortgage and car loans and more.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says investors looking at current market turmoil and the potential for stagflation and an economic recession should remember that "Doing nothing is something," making an active decision to continue with current allocations, which she says is appropriate for anyone who felt balanced when they entered 2025. Fernandez expects current tariff policies to drive inflation above the 4 percent level before it cools, creating a stagflationary environment, bringing some hard times that she thinks won't last long once the economy and the market have some long-term clarity and stability on policy changes. because the economy was so strong entering the year. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, discusses the trading opportunities in closed-end funds created by the market's volatility, but he also notes that in spite of the tumult, his prediction for fixed-income closed-end fund returns this year "is still double digits, it's just going to be different." Plus Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group brings his "modern value" investing approach to the Market Call.

Francisco Bido, senior portfolio manager at F/m Acceleration, brings his quant-active approach to the Market Call, but notes that mixing the numbers — the quantitative approach — with the art of active management leads him to want a well-diversified portfolio filled with well-known names that stay true to his core investment believes, the kind of thing he would be happy to ride with until there is more certainty and confidence in the market. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, puts a different spin on that, noting that amid the current uncertainty investors may want to make a long-term allocation to ultra-safe funds, which is why he makes a floating rate Treasury fund his ETF of the Week. Plus Chuck talks about the wild day that gold had on Wednesday and what lessons investors can take from it, and Frederick Blue of Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management discusses "Guidance for Professional Athletes: Turning Years into Decades," a new white paper the firm produced that discusses how people can turn short-term windfalls into something more permanent and lasting.

Dominic Ceci, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, says that he believes the potential recession that the United States economy could be facing is likely to be "a run-of-the-mill, early '90s type of recession" that stays shallow and lasts a few quarters, but he acknowledges that the signs are murky and that the longer uncertainty around trade and other policies last, the deeper and longer a likely recession becomes. Ceci says that investors should remember that the market is up way more than it is down, which means investors need to avoid panic and keep their eyes on the long-term gains rather than making changes based on incomplete information now. In The Book Interview, author Shannah Game, discusses “Unraveling Your Relationship With Money: Fix Your Money Trauma So You Can Live an Abundant Life,” which explores how the actions and attitudes people pick up over their lives — but particularly when they're young — influence a lifetime of decisions and attitudes around money. Plus, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management — manager of the Moerus Worldwide Value fund — brings his deep-value approach to the Market Call.

Andrew Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, says that with so much investor optimism wiped away by the rough start to 2025, the opportunity for growth now looks better than it did at the start of the year. "Six months from now, I would say there's a good chance the market will be higher," Slimmon says in summing up a conversation that compares current conditions to Covid times, that discusses why looking for defensive names now is bad advice and much more. Ironically, his interview airs directly before Simon Lack of SL Advisors — publishers of the American Energy Independence Index — talks about defensive midstream energy plays in the Market Call. Plus, Jerry Avorn discusses his new book, "Rethinking Medications: Truth, Power, and the Drugs You Take," which is out today.

Mike Green, chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management, says that we're living through "a period of genuine uncertainty, and a period in which forecasts that would have been made even three or four months ago no longer seem to have any real validity." He says that the current set up for a trade/tariff war is setting the economy up for a repeat of real troubles, and made comparisons as varied as the Great Depression, the Covoid downturn, the Great Financial Crisis and others, and while he is optimistic that those dire scenarios can still be avoided, he also says that investors can't rule them out. Rahul Sen Sharma, president and co-chief executive officer at Indxx discusses how global markets — and indexes representing various regions and industries around the world — are performing amid the current market uncertainty. Plus, Raymond Bridges of the Bridges Capital Tactical ETF brings his "aggressively cautious" approach — which melds macroeconomic big-picture views with technical analysis and volatility factors — to the Market Call.

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that heightened volatility is likely here to stay as the market sorts out rapidly changing current conditions -- and says current market shocks are reminiscent in some ways of the Covid crisis or the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks. He says that the current dichotomy between quantifiable potential outcomes from policies that have been announced and the non-quantifiable future and how conditions may change, making it a good time for low-volatility equity strategies. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, returns to the show with three closed-end funds that he thinks can help investors weather the market's storms, giving his "trifecta analysis" — covering data points on discounts, yields and net asset values — on why he thinks the funds are worth a close look now. Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, looks for some safety and certainty amid the market noise, picking a classic dividend-driven fund as his ETF of the Week, and Tom McIntyre, president of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn — the original Market Call guest — returns to the show to discuss how his news-driven process is dealing with the headlines now.

Rebecca Rockey, deputy chief economist and global head of forecasting at Cushman & Wakefield — an analyst on the outlook survey committee for the National Association for Business Economics — discusses the group's recent "flash survey" of economists which found that since tariff policies were announced on "Liberation Day," more than one-third of economists now believe the next recession is likely to start this year. Another half of the respondents have also raised their chances for a significant economic downturn. Rockey says that media forecasts for economic growth show significant downgrades since the tariff announcements, and notes that it appears this sentiment shift is the swiftest she has seen in any two-week period of time, including in times like Covid and other crises. Bob Powell, editor at Retirement Daily, talks about how seniors and pre-retirees should be considering the headlines on tariff and other government policies when it comes to spending, saving, retirement planning, Social Security, Medicare and more. Plus, Chuck answers three questions from listeners, discussing sequence-of-return versus market risk, how and why tariffs impact bond markets and his general feelings about tariffs.