Podcast appearances and mentions of cameron bagrie

Independent economist comments on a 4.1% rise in global food prices over the past two months, what it means for NZ farmers, and why rising global bond yields are keeping the NZ dollar in the US 58–59c range. Plus, the May 27 OCR decision, fuel and fertiliser pressures, the BNZ buy-up, what’s in the Budget for farmers — and why, in the end, it could be worse: we could be in Australia.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Shane Jones, Cameron Bagrie, Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, and Phil Duncan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand, according to the OECD, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, needs to reform the electricity sector, expand and strengthen capital markets, speed up digitisation of the health sector, and reform the pension. The OECD joined other international agencies in calling for the age of eligibility for super to be raised by indexing it to life expectancy with measures to take account of different ethnicities and work backgrounds. A bit like in Australia, if you're in a tough job that is tough on your body and you physically cannot work any longer, then you can get the pension a bit earlier, it just won't be as much as the full pension. If Bill English had been able to form a coalition government when he was leading National, we would have raised the age of super by now to 67. But it doesn't, for those of you who are concerned, go from 65 to 67 overnight. You'll remember when National was looking at raising the age to 67 – it would just increase six months each year and it wouldn't have started until the 1st of July 2037. So it doesn't happen overnight, there's plenty of time for people to get used to it, it's phased in slowly, it's not a huge seismic shock. What is a huge seismic shock is the cost of super to the national economy. Simplicity Managing Director Sam Stubbs says super is a huge problem that needs to be addressed urgently. He says without change, by 2060 all of our income tax will only be able to pay for health and national super, there'll be no money left for anything else – unless we suddenly get incredibly wealthy. But if things stay as they are pretty much, our GDP stays the same, the increase in the number of people needing healthcare and national Super will be such that our income tax will only pay for that. There'll be nothing for roads, nothing for schools, nothing for any of the things we like to have. “What about the Cullen Fund?” I hear you ask, and that's a good question. The fund was never a fully funded Super scheme; it was just designed to smooth out some of the population shocks so that it wouldn't completely cripple the economy as a big cohort of the population reached superannuation age. It's expected to contribute roughly 3.3-3.5% of the total super cost by 2040. It may well get up to covering 10% of the costs by 2080, but certainly not 100% Finance Minister Nicola Willis was sort of trying to calm things down. She told Mike Hosking that changes don't need to be as dramatic as the OECD suggests, but do need to happen. “In the 1960s there were around seven New Zealanders of working age for every person aged 65 or older. Today there are four and by 2065 there will only be two. So that burden on our taxpayers is increasing significantly. Already between last year and the end of the fiscal period, the cost of New Zealand superannuation will increase by about $6 billion a year. It's rising as a proportion of what we tax you for, so it's currently just over 16%, it's going to rise to over 20%. And every dollar we're spending on superannuation is a dollar not available for education, for health, for infrastructure. So gradually over time some changes will need to be made. They don't need to be as dramatic as the OECD suggests, but some adjustments will be needed.” Well, it will need to be as dramatic unless political parties bite the bullet. And in this case, there would need to be, and Chris Hipkins said himself, that he was open to having cross party discussions about what to do around the super. Because without change, without sensible, orderly change, it will need to be dramatic. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie told Heather du Plessis Allan last night he's a fan of means testing the super. “We're on an unsustainable fiscal path. You know, the Government needs to bite the bullet in regards to making some pretty big, hard, bold decisions. We've been talking about this sort of stuff for 30 years. I can remember modelling this sort of stuff in the 1990s when I was at New Zealand Treasury 30 years ago. And all that's happened is that we've kicked the can down the road. You know, a little bit of stuff has been brought in, New Zealand Super Fund, the KiwiSaver contributions, but when push comes to shove here, we need to address the entitlement side of New Zealand Superannuation and that comes through, you know, potentially lifting the age or means testing has to come into the equation.” So what would you be a fan of? And this is accepting that we cannot continue with the status quo – it's unsustainable and everybody has said that. You might not believe the media, you might not believe politicians, but independent organisations have said this, Treasury has said this, economists, as Cameron Bagrie was saying, from as far back as the 1980s, 1990s were saying there needs to be provision made, it can't go on the way it's going. The advantage for young people or younger people, I guess, is that they have KiwiSaver, which enables them to contribute a considerable amount towards a comfortable retirement. The longer you're in it, the better it is. So many decisions we should have made many, many years ago. You look back and we'd be in a far better position, far more able to weather economic shocks than we are now had we made those hard calls 20, 30, 40, 50 years ago. We need to make a hard call now, not kick the can down the road as we have been doing, government after government, voting cohort after voting cohort. So what particular poison are you willing to swallow? Bringing back what Bill English proposed, raising the age of entitlement to 67 and starting from the 1st of July 2037, raising the age at which you can get it by six months? So you'll be 65 years and six months. 65 years and six months is not that burdensome, is it? There are other ways of doing it gently without a brutal overnight decision. Is means testing the way to go? I would always want to see an allowance for somebody who's had a really tough job, to be able to withdraw it or apply for it earlier but just get a little bit less. We need to have a sensible discussion. We can't just bury our heads in the sand as successive voters have done over generations, and governments are going to have to be bold enough to make the call. Should it be a cross-party decision? Yeah, I think it should be. There should be a collective agreement from all parties that this is what needs to happen for future generations. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's treading water, with a warning our increasingly overloaded pension system isn't sustainable. The latest OECD snapshot of our economy suggests unless we adjust systems, including the costs of health, long-term care and pension will increase by about five percent of GDP by 2060. It says it could be countered by changes including upping Superannuation contributions. Economist Cameron Bagrie says we can't keep kicking the can down the road - and that we need to address entitlements, through lifting the retirement age or means testing. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's treading water, with a warning our increasingly overloaded pension system isn't sustainable. The latest OECD snapshot of our economy suggests unless we adjust systems, including the costs of health, long-term care and pension will increase by about five percent of GDP by 2060. It says it could be countered by changes including upping Superannuation contributions. Economist Cameron Bagrie says we can't keep kicking the can down the road - and that we need to address entitlements, through lifting the retirement age or means testing. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation's already looking vulnerable, with the reality of worse economic blows still to come. Figures out today showed annual CPI unexpectedly held at 3.1 in this year's first three months, confounding expectations it would fall as low as 2.8. Economist Cameron Bagrie says the rate reflects what was happening to prices, just as the cost of fuel began to climb, when the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz. He says we'll get an inflationary hit in the June quarter, and a better starting position would have been preferable. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation's already looking vulnerable, with the reality of worse economic blows still to come. Figures out today showed annual CPI unexpectedly held at 3.1 in this year's first three months, confounding expectations it would fall as low as 2.8. Economist Cameron Bagrie says the rate reflects what was happening to prices, just as the cost of fuel began to climb, when the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz. He says we'll get an inflationary hit in the June quarter, and a better starting position would have been preferable. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The country's largest bank is again raising interest rates, days after forecasting much earlier-than-expected OCR hikes. ANZ is increasing most home loan rates by 10 to 20 basis points following a rise in wholesale rates. It's now advertising a one-year home loan rate of 4.69%. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie told Mike Hosking markets are pricing-in the change in forecasts. He says the fixed rates are based on what's expected to happen, rather than what's happening now. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast for Thursday 16th of April, our largest bank is increasing its interest rates in anticipation of OCR hikes. Shane Jones responds to the businesses and critics calling for more information on the country's fuel supply. Kiwi Supercars driver Ryan Wood carries his momentum into Christchurch, racing at Ruapuna this weekend. Get the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists are divided over how fast the Reserve Bank should raise the Official Cash Rate. ANZ has already picked three consecutive hikes in July, September, and October, while Westpac says it's becoming more of a possibility next month, but is more likely in September. On the hand, Kiwibank believes raising the rate multiple times before the election would be reckless. Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge there's a case for raising the OCR in May – a pre-emptive strike against inflation. He says that if they feel the need to go, they're better off going early as if they leave it later and let inflation get a bit embedded, they'll have to take the OCR higher to compensate. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Wednesday 15th of April 2025, tourism's roaring back now sitting at 92% of pre-covid levels, Mat Woods CEO of Destination Queenstown & Lake Wanaka Tourism, tells Ryan what we can do to keep tourism booming. David Seymour's pushing to turn New Zealand into a cannabis export powerhouse, Cannabis Clinic CEO Dr Waseem Alazaher tells Ryan if new changes will be a big help for exporting. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie shares his thoughts on opposing views on OCR hikes from ANZ and Kiwibank. Plus, UK Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on the IMF's predictions for the UK economy and a former Nato secretary general saying the UK's security is "in peril". Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Christopher Luxon, Emma Higgins, Ross Sommerville, and Steve Wyn-Harris.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We head live to San Francisco to talk to an independent economist who crunches the numbers on the US-Iran ceasefire. How have the markets reacted? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jen Corkran, Hunter McGregor, Dan Boulton, and Jo Luxton.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Independent economist and the chair of Transport NZ. What are we seeing across livestock transport? Plus, we look at the exchange and interest rates, inflation and the NZX50 down 7% in March. And what are the best and worst-case scenarios?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Banks' forecasts of an economic contraction in the second quarter are probably right, independent economist Cameron Bagrie says. ASB's revised outlook shows the bank expects annual GDP growth of 1.3% this year, down from its previous forecast of 2.9%, thanks to higher fuel prices hitting consumer spending. It expects the economy to contract by 0.3% in the second quarter and expand by 0.3% in the third, with New Zealand's economic recovery now “unlikely” before 2027. Bagrie told Ryan Bridge those forecasts were a “central scenario” but there was a lot of variance, as nobody had a firm idea of how long the war would last. The economy would likely move backwards in the next quarter, and GDP per capita was still down 3.4% from its peak three years ago. While that didn't technically qualify as a recession —which requires going backwards for two quarters in a row— “it's still going to feel like it's pretty tough out there”. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank Governor says the central bank is closely monitoring fuel prices, but won't rush into reacting. Anna Breman says the Iran war is likely to lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the short term. Breman says that's unlikely to make them hike the Official Cash Rate - but things could change if higher fuel prices pressure the economy. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says it's important to keep an eye on the 'second-round' effects from the conflict in order to determine future OCR changes. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Prime Minister was on Newstalk ZB this morning not being able to explain what specifically his government was going to do, and when, to bring relief to NZers over petrol prices, and why NZ condemned the actions of Iran but has been silent on the actions of Israel and the US.We watched the full 1 hour and 6-minute SOTN speech by Winston Peters so you don't have too and have some takeaways including who he is pitching to and how he is trying to distance himself from his coalition partnersFinance Minister Nicola Willis has assured Kiwis that the country has enough of a fuel buffer for seven weeks, but Cameron Bagrie has warned that crunch time is about to hit.Latest RNZ polls shows National falling further behind Labour, what does it mean...if anything?++++++++++++++++++++Like us on Facebook.com/BigHairyNetwork Follow us on Twitter.com/@bighairynetworkFollowing us on TikTok.com/@bighairynetworkSupport us on Patreon www.patreon.com/c/BigHairyNewsCheck out our merch https://bhn.nz/shop/Donate to our work https://bhn.nz/shop/donation/

Economists are questioning Treasury's 'worst case' economic forecast from the Iran war. It predicts a worst case scenario of inflation hitting 3.7 percent this year - if the conflict persists. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says he doesn't think Treasury has properly taken into account businesses feeling the second-hand impact of rising fuel prices. "If they've got a reason to push up prices under the guise of what's going on in Hormuz around the globe, firms are going to use that excuse and try to jam in some price rises. We've seen it before." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A leading economist is warning New Zealand to brace for two weeks time - which they say could be when the country experiences a real fuel choke point. Petrol has gone up about 50 cents per litre since the beginning of the war in the Middle East. The Hormuz Strait, a major shipping route for crude oil remains closed, but the government says New Zealand doesnt have a supply problem. Cameron Bagrie from Bagrie Economics spoke to Lisa Owen.

Independent economist on the exchange (down) and interest rates (up), fuel and fertiliser prices, and a change in world order.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, Todd Clark, and Kelvin Wickham.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jo Luxton, Michael Harvey, Alex Tait, and Shane Jones.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, James Robertson, George Dodson, Jo Luxton, and Kevin Bevan. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Independent economist comments on the state of the world economy as war breaks out in the Middle East. We talk trade implications, interest and exchange rates, inflation, oil prices, equity markets, consumer demand and time frames for the conflict.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Saturday Donald Trump announced a 10% levy on all goods coming into the US in response to the Supreme Court ruling his other tariffs unconstitutional. The new global tariffs were updated to 15% on Sunday. Economist Cameron Bagrie joined Tim Beveridge to talk about the implications for kiwi businesses. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On Saturday Donald Trump announced a 10% levy on all goods coming into the US in response to the Supreme Court ruling his other tariffs unconstitutional. The new global tariffs were updated to 15% on Sunday. Economist Cameron Bagrie joined Tim Beveridge to talk about the implications for kiwi businesses. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An economist is pointing out a potential problem with the Reserve Bank's economic forecast. The Monetary Policy Committee, chaired by Anna Breman, has decided to keep the OCR unchanged at 2.25% for now. It says while inflation is above the target band, the economy still needs some time to recover. Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge that the problem with the Reserve Bank's forecast is the assumed uptick in productivity growth. He says they're assuming the supply side capacity, via productivity growth, will improve, which will keep inflation lower, but if we can't get supply side capacity up, inflation will prove to be a lot stickier. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Economists say it might be time to recalibrate our expectations for inflation and interest rates following higher-than-expected inflation figures on Friday. Bagrie Economics managing director Cameron Bagrie spoke to Corin Dann.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jo Luxton, Farmer Tom Martin, Jen Corkran, Shane Jones, and Jane Smith. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Travel costs are keeping inflation higher for longer than the Reserve Bank would probably like. Stats NZ is providing its latest CPI update at 10.45. Three months ago, the annual inflation rate was 3% - at the very top end of the Reserve Bank's target range. Economists expect it now to be between 2.9 and 3.1%. Economist Cameron Bagrie told Andrew Dickens inflation is looking to be a little bit sticky towards the top end of the target zone. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

An independent economist who offers his take on the state of the nation. He unequivocally says 2026 will be better than 2025. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Dominic Jones, Tom Young, Jo Luxton, and Tom Martin.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Treasury's Half Year Economic and Fiscal Update has painted a concerning picture for the Government books. It forecasted the deficit will peak at $16.9 billion dollars, and only drop to $60 million in the 2029-2030 financial year. Independent economist Cameron Bagrie says this forecast doesn't come with many surprises. "If you look at the bigger picture, we're now going to have a decade of deficits. And if you look at the last two years, the situation's actually been worsening." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwibank says it's on with a 2.4% GDP increase for 2026. But the bank has joined the chorus blaming the Reserve Bank for messing up the communications leading to increased fixed-term rates at the major retail banks. Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie told Heather du Plessis-Allan that the economy is slowly stabilising, and because of that interest rates don't need to be as low. "When you turn the corner, interest rates don't need to be as low." LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

As we wait for today's official cash rate announcement, one economist says we've turned a corner and things are feeling, overall, a lot more positive. Cameron Bagrie spoke to Corin Dann.

Is an Independent Economist who comments on the state of a precarious world economy. Plus we preview next week's OCR announcement from the Reserve Bank. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Nigel Woodhead, Cameron Bagrie, Jane Smith, Stefan Vogel, and Jo Luxton. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Katie Milne, Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, Hunter McGregor, Miles Hurrell, and Chris Russell. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

One of the country’s leading economists discusses Labour’s new capital gains tax policy, the OCR and our exchange rate. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Mark Mitchell, Katie Milne, Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, and Phil Duncan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Relief for borrowers after the Reserve Bank cut the Official Cash Rate by 50 basis points. Cameron Bagrie spoke to Ingrid Hipkiss.

We talk GDP, GDT and OCR with an independent economist.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Cameron Bagrie, Jason Herrick, Phil Duncan, and Hunter McGregor.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Bagrie Economics chief economist Cameron Bagrie speaks to Q+A about the economic situation New Zealand is in, and what levers could be pulled to get the country out of the malaise. However, Bagrie says some of the levers that have been pulled in previous downturns might not be available now. Join Jack Tame and the Q+A team and find the answers to the questions that matter. Made with the support of NZ on Air.

With Australia National University senior lecturer Dr Anas Iqtait, Whena Owen following up on access to Cape Palliser, Victoria University's Dr Andrew Lensen, Bagrie Economics chief economist Cameron Bagrie, and 1News' Te Aniwa Hurihanganui.

Tonight, on The Panel, Wallace Chapman is joined by panellists Ali Jones and Simon Pound. First up, thousands of secondary school teachers walked off the job today in a dispute over pay. The Panel talks to Paul Stevens, a teacher at Auckland's Rangitoto College and a PPTA representative. Then they hear from independant Cameron Bagrie about the Reserve Banks decision to whack 25 points off the OCR - what does it mean for mortgage holders looking to refix?

Independent economist looks beyond tomorrow’s OCR announcement to comment on where neutral is for the Reserve Bank. Plus, is the economy officially suffering from Long Covid where strong economic growth alone won’t be enough to get the Govt’s finances back on track? So is the solution more spending cuts or increased taxes?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Jamie Mackay talks to Stephen Fleming, Cameron Bagrie, Damien O'Connor, and Phil Duncan.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

No unicorns, no rainbows, no BS, but not austerity - this is how Finance Minister Nicola Willis has described her second budget to be revealed this afternoon.  Independent economist Cameron Bagrie on how the numbers might add up.