Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

Australia's refusing to play ball with the US, which is demanding it up its defence spend to 3.5% of GDP as soon as possible. Australia's currently tracking to lift spending to 2.33% of GDP in the next eight years. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese seems to be brushing off the demand. Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio told Ryan Bridge that Albanese has said what you should do in defence is decide what you need, your capability, and provide for it, and that's what his Government is doing. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Plenty happened in the sporting world over the long weekend, and Andrew Alderson joined Ryan Bridge to delve into some of it. On today's agenda is the latest from Roland-Garros, the Warriors' win and Mitch Barnett's unfortunate ACL injury, and a social media spat coming out of IndyCar. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Minimal progress in another round of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The two countries have agreed, in Istanbul, to exchange sick and wounded prisoners of war, and those under 25. Meanwhile, Ukraine's carried out drone strikes on several Russian air bases. BBC's Olga Ivshina says even the loss of one plane is significant, as Russia can't replicate it quickly. She told Ryan Bridge Russia has also launched attacks. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Do you know what's really starts to rub me the wrong way? It's governments telling us to do more things. This morning, we've got the government coming out with yet another hotline. Sounds fancy. Sounds efficient. It's a hotline to report road cones. A road cone tipline. Sorry, but if the problem is that there are too many road cones on the road, and they're unnecessary for the work being carried out —which half of them appear to be— then why do you need us to tell you that? Surely if we just had better, clearer rules and less bullshit, we wouldn't need a road cone tipline. A pothole tipline. A 105 theft tipline. A beneficiary tipline. Either you know what you're doing and you've got smart people and smart systems, or you don't. And every time I hear of another tipline I realise, they have no idea. Tiplines are the equivalent of a safety calming measure. Those weird speed bumps or narrowing roads, designed to make people feel better when driving around. All they really do is piss people off and reveal how rubbish your road designs are to begin with. Just think about this: There's a bunch of road cones in a dumb place on a busy road. WorkSafe and NZTA and Council people drive past this busy spot every day. Barbara in her little Honda Civic, she drives past. She calls it in. Barry in his truck and trailer. He calls it in. Sally picks the kids up at 3pm from school every day. They all ring the tipline. They all report the same thing. It will then be somebody's job to sort through the tips. Somebody else will triage the tips. That's two jobs. In three weeks, Barry, Sally, and Barb get a letter. Because the post only runs two days a week. The letter says we're looking into the issue for you. Meanwhile, 100 government or council people have walked or driven past the road cone Armageddon and nothing's changed. Tiplines are plasters over grenades. The only time I want to ring a tipline is speak to the actual dump. In its first 156 days in office, the National-led government has set up 37 reviews, inquiries or advisory panels – some of which are being led by former ministers, including Bill English, Steven Joyce, Murray McCully and Roger Sowry.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 3rd of June 2025, The Government's introducing new changes to Worksafe and implementing a new roadcone hotline, Parallax CEO Dave Tilton shares his thoughts on how it will work. Ukraine and Russia have been having peace talks in Turkey, BBC Senior Russia Correspondent Olga Ivshina shares the latest. Andrew Alderson has the latest on the weekend's sport. Plus, Donna Demaio has all the details on the Australian PM brushing off a push from the US to spend more on defence. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Significant changes at WorkSafe as it moves from an enforcement focus and launches the road cone hotline. The agency will now engage early to support risk management, starting with today's opening of a tipline for excessive road cone usage. Parallaxx Traffic Control Training Chief Executive Dave Tilton told Ryan Bridge there are good elements to this announcement. He agrees with the collaborative risk-based approach, connecting WorkSafe, councils, and NZTA. But Tilton says there are incompatible components to the hotline itself. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Just 60% of Air New Zealand's trans-Tasman flights took off within 15 minutes of their scheduled time last month. A report by the Ministry of Transport shows airline performance for April. 78% of Jetstar's flights between Australia and New Zealand left on time, and 70% for Qantas. Aviation commentator Peter Clark told Ryan Bridge Air New Zealand's has a large fleet, which means more planes needing attention. He says aircrafts have to be turned around, serviced, and catered every flight. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Doubts many parents will be prosecuted for repeat truancy under a new Government directive. Associate Education Minister David Seymour's confirmed these parents could be fined up to $30 a day as part of a firmer approach on school attendance. Any possible prosecution cases will be referred to the Ministry. Darfield High School Principal Andy England told Ryan Bridge they have 28 students —or 3%— who could fall into the chronic non-attendance category. He says the vast majority have parents who are struggling financially or have health issues, and the ministry would struggle to prosecute any of them. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Farmers are welcoming a proposal to remove difficult rules from the Resource Management Act. The Government's released three discussion documents proposing amending 12 current national directions and four new ones. They include changes to freshwater management and regulation of farming practices. Beef + Lamb New Zealand Chair Kate Acland told Ryan Bridge the Government's addressing issues they've been highlighting for a long time. She says the rules are complex, impractical, and in some cases, impossible to meet. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

British Police are still asking the public not to speculate as to why a 53-year-old businessman drove his car into a massive crowd of people in Liverpool. Seventy nine people - among those celebrating Liverpool Football Club's league title - were hurt; seven remain in hospital. Paul Doyle faces six charges related to grievous bodily harm, and one of dangerous driving. He'll first appear in court this weekend. Doyle is a former Royal Marine, believed to have served in the 90s. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, Friday the 30th of May Full Show Podcast 2025, the Ministry of Education's been ordered to prosecute parents who who don't regularly send their children to school, Darfield school Principal Andy England shares his thoughts. Beef and Lamb NZ are praising the government's RMA announcement Chairperson Kate Acland explains it's benefits. New data on plane arrivals shows Air New Zealand is falling behind, Aviation Commentator Peter Clark shares his thoughts. Europe Correspondent Vincent McAviney shares the latest on police naming the man charged in relation to a car crash during the Liverpool parade. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The price of butter's shot up 65% over the past year - you might have noticed nana's cookie jar's a bit empty lately. Bakers are buying in bulk from the Aussies, where it's cheaper. Online discussion blames our dairy farmers, the co-op that buys their milk, and the producers who sell it. But, there are a couple of reason its cheaper there than here. 1) We export a hell of a lot more to the world than the Aussies do. In 2023, they exported 9.4 tonnes. We exported 441 tonnes. They exported 2% of the quantity we did. That means our price is more susceptible to the international market price. We export most of our butter, we pay the international price. Australia on the other hand, eats a lot more of its own and exports less. This is good and bad. It mean we pay the trade price, yes, but it also means when the price is high, as it has been lately, our largest company Fonterra does well. Our farmers do well. They spend money here and drive growth in our economy which we all benefit from. Yesterday we learned that means an extra $15-billion being ploughed into this economy. 2) Supply issues in Europe have pushed that global price up. Our is a premium product which is in high demand overseas. It's grass fed, more sustainable, and just tastes better. The exchange rate has also encouraged large purchases from offshore buyers. 3) When you produce a lot of something, producers will lock themselves into big international contacts because they buy greater volumes than local retailers need. The Aussies have this problem with their gas. Australian National University business and economics lecturer David Leaney explains that they signed some big money contracts to supply a enormous amount of gas at locked-in prices. He says even though they could sell it for more domestically, they're locked into those contracts. 4) We don't know the details of the Costco cheap butter that everyone's been raving about. Is it a loss leader? Is it a marketing ploy? Discount it to get people into your store to then simultaneously buy 48 rolls of toilet paper? So yes, Kiwi butter is expensive at home. But the fact it's expensive elsewhere is actually a good thing for our country as a whole. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A lack of consensus at the Reserve Bank on yesterday's cut to the OCR reflects the global economic uncertainty. The Monetary Policy Committee has dropped the cash rate 25-basis points to 3.25%, and now expects to reach a 2.9% low-point in December. However, further cuts are uncertain, with the bank adopting a watch and wait approach. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge they still believe we'll get another cut next month, but it's uncertain how far the Bank will go. He says it's possible we will pause at some point. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Grocery Action Group is unconvinced by a proposal to rapidly add competition to the grocery sector. The New Zealand Initiative wants the Government to introduce a "fast track pathway" to allow new entrants to enter the market, rather than forcing any break-up of the existing supermarket companies. It includes streamlining rezoning, consenting and investment clearance processes. The group's Sue Chetwin told Ryan Bridge it's more of a nice to have. She says to get more competitors, the government will need to force existing supermarkets to give up some of their stores. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's an expectation it will take two years to get the number of international students in vocational education back to pre-Covid levels. There were about 75-thousand international students in New Zealand last year - 40% less than a peak in 2016. Vocational Minister Penny Simmonds says told Ryan Bridge centralising Polytech's into Te Pukenga is a big factor, as it caused a financial mess. She says it's been a nightmare, which is being unpicked. Te Pukenga is being disestablished by January, with power then going back to individual Polytech's. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Another Reserve Bank rate cut. It was largely as expected - 25 basis points. The rest of the press conference and much of the Monetary Policy Statement itself was focused on the ‘unpredictable' global environment. We can't say this because we don't know what Trump will do. We can't be certain about that because XYZ. Trade war, etc, etc. But at what point does unpredictability become predictable, and therefore not the great threat we make it out to be? Yes, Trump went nuts on Liberation day. The sky fell in, then he calls a ceasefire in May. The markets have recouped all their losses, the indices are patchy but largely back to where they were. Trade talks are ongoing. The IMF yesterday upgraded Britain's growth. US consumer confidence actually increased last month. China's industrial growth for April was positive yesterday. Our agriculture exports are doing the business abroad. Trump rants and raves on twitter. He un-announces stuff as quickly as he announces stuff. He's impulsive, emotionally reactive, and vindictive. He's a weathervane. The political equivalent of Katy Perry, cause he's hot then he's cold. He's in then he's out. He's up then he's down. He's yes then he's no. He's wrong when it's right, he's black when it's white... You get the point. The point ism we know this about him. We know he's unpredictable and that makes his unpredictability, predictable. I reckon we aren't taking his threats as seriously as we were two months ago. Not the US consumer, not Chinese industry, not us. And you know who else should stop paying him so much attention? The Reserve Bank. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday the 29th of May 2025, The Reserve Bank cut the OCR by 25 basis points, ASB bank Chief Economist Nick Tuffley shares his thoughts. International student numbers are down in Secondary schools and for vocational training, Minister for vocational education Penny Simmonds tells Ryan Bridge what the Government's doing to help. The New Zealand Initiative has come up with a plan to bring competition to the grocery sector, Sue Chetwin from the Grocery Action Group shares her thoughts. Plus US Correspondent Mitch McCann has the latest on the US government halting international student Visa appointments. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Renewed warnings that people are 'rolling the dice with their life' when partaking in 'run it straight' style games. Ryan Satterthwaite has died after a private version of the game in Palmerston North. The 19-year-old suffered a serious brain injury on Sunday and died in hospital on Monday. AUT Human Performance Professor Patria Hume told Ryan Bridge Police can intervene in these games, particularly at official events. She says event organisers are legally required to ensure the health and safety of participants. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Major questions about how a man was able to drive his car into a massive crowd in Liverpool yesterday, injuring 50. Eleven people remain in hospital, all in a stable condition and recovering. A 53-year-old British man has been arrested for attempted murder. Fans of Liverpool Football Club had flooded the city's streets to celebrate its Premier League title win. Correspondent Gavin Grey told Ryan Bridge the driver defied police traffic management by following an ambulance into the area. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Port of Auckland's fee hikes are a bitter pill to swallow for transport operators. The port has announced a 77% increase for trucks entering the Fergusson Container Terminal during peak times – going from $130 to $230 by July next year. National Road Carriers Chief Executive Justin Tighe-Umbers told Ryan Bridge it's not so simple to work off peak, as they don't have the workforce to cover those hours. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast 2025 Wednesday 28th of May, It's OCR day today, Westpac Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold shares his thoughts on what the Reserve Bank will do. A 19 year old has died from a 'run-it-straight' style game with his friends, AUT Human Performance Professor Patria Hume warns about the risk of letting these events continue. Auckland's port is hiking its access fees once again, National Road Carriers Association Chief Executive Justin Tighe-umbers tells Ryan Bridge about the impacts it'll have. Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on the car that drove through closed off streets at the celebration parade for Liverpool Football Club. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank's expected to cut interest rates again this afternoon, to aid economic recovery. Economists are projecting a 25 basis point OCR cut to 3.25% - the lowest cash rate since September 2022. Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold says beyond that, there's a bit more debate. He says told Ryan Bridge Westpac is forecasting they'll stop at three percent. Eckhold says next year if the global environment looks weak, then inflation could fall back quite rapidly - so some commentators are suggesting rates could get to 2.5%. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What happened in Palmerston North with the death of this young man was an absolute tragedy. We don't know exactly what happened here, other than it was linked to another viral challenge. The sad reality is stuff like this will happen again. And again. And again. The campaigners and professionals will warn about the dangers. And then kids will be kids, and another craze will come along and somebody else will get hurt or worse. Ten years ago… remember planking? The came skin art, where young people paint sunscreen on some parts of their bodies and burn the rest in the sun. An American family lost their son to the infamous blackout challenge, where kids choke themselves or their friends for fun. For ages teenagers, especially boys, have played bullrush, drank to excess, and driven cars way too fast. Frontal lobes don't develop properly until age 25. That's when reason overtakes risk in the brain. Behaviour changes. If you ask me honestly if society can ever prevent these tragedies from happening again, I'd say look at the numbers, the trends and social media algorithms. But more than that, that overwhelming urge to, when you're young, experiment with danger. To push the boundaries in life. To just goof off with your mates. That primal urge has existed since the beginning of time and doesn't appear to be going anywhere in a hurry. All we can do as individuals is offer our sincere condolences to this poor family and hope that others learn a lesson from his death. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand's greyhound racers aren't going without a fight. Greyhound Racing NZ is applying for a judicial review of Racing Minister Winston Peters giving the industry 20 months to wind down, from last November. Trainer Craig Roberts told Ryan Bridge he believes people have been fed misinformation about the industry. He says about 95% of greyhound injuries aren't serious, and just prevent them racing for a short period of time. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Farmers are sounding the alarm, warning the sheep industry is collapsing. Numbers in flocks have declined from 70 million just over 40 years ago to 25 million today. Farmers say carbon farming is the main factor, with 260 thousand hectares of land converted into forestry between 2017 and 2024. They say the farms harbour pests like stoats, feral pigs, and deer, which come onto their land and harm their livestock. Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard told Ryan Bridge the problem has grown in the last three or four years – a lack of hunting during the Covid lockdowns seemingly allowing pests to breed. He says as they redo the Biosecurity Act, they'll be looking at the clause dictating a landowner must maintain and control pests within their boundary, to see if it needs tightening. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A 43-year-old Australian man arrested in Bali for smuggling cocaine, could face the death penalty. Lamar Aaron Ahchee was picked up by Police at the location where the drugs were allegedly delivered. More than 200 small packages of cocaine were confiscated, weighing almost two kilograms. Australian correspondent Donna Demaio told Ryan Bridge Ahchee has yet to be charged, but has been presented to media at a press conference wearing an orange jumpsuit and black balaclava. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Retail NZ is calling for an urgent meeting with the police minister. RNZ reports staff have been directed to not investigate shoplifting below $500 and online fraud below $1000. Police say they may not take look further into crime below the threshold and lacking evidence. Retail NZ Advocacy Manager Ann-Marie Johnson told Ryan Bridge they know officers aren't going to turn up at every small incident. She says they just want to know Police are taking these crimes seriously and arresting where they can. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

So, Winston has definitively ruled out working with Chris Hipkins. Not Labour, but Hipkins. He had of course already pretty much done this earlier in the year after his State of Nation address, in which called the Labour leadership a bunch of liars and unreformed losers. But this is crystal clear now. He's spoken to Thomas Coughlin at the Herald - it's a firm no, thank you. This is interesting for two reasons. 1) Winston is a political wizard and knows how to read the room and play the game. This is not a random outburst. This is a calculated decision based on the path he thinks will get New Zealand First back to the Treasury benches. By virtue of ruling out Hipkins, assuming he doesn't get rolled and replaced, Winston has reduced his bargaining power. Which is not an outcome a kingmaker takes lightly. The key to his success on the campaign trail has always been as much about what he stands against as what he stands for - immigration and Treaty issues spring to mind. He's decided that in 2026, the punching bag will be a three-headed clown show marriage of the Greens, Labour, and Te Pati Māori. He's read the room and picked his side. In 2023, Winston ruled out Labour before Chippy definitively ruled Winston out. He has yet to do the same for 2026. He's now missed his chance, and any moral high found that went with it. Remember, Hipkins must appeal to a base that despises the anti-woke agenda Winston peddles. This year alone he's labelled him a pale version of Donald Trump, a conspiracy theorist, and spokesman for the tobacco lobby. Hipkins' failure to rule out working with him undermines the high horse he canters around the Parliament. His protestations were sounding a bit hollow. The question for Hipkins this morning: are you willing to rule out working in Winston given he's already done the same to you? Or is there a wee small hope in your head that he might just change his mind and under MMP, an open door is is worth walking through, even if it leads you to the across to the dark side?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge, Full Show Podcast Tuesday the 27th of May 2025, Retail NZ's Ann Marie Johnson tells Ryan Bridge why they've has called for an urgent meeting with Police Minister Mark Mitchell after Police were told to no longer investigate allegations of shop lifting below $500. Greyhound racing New Zealand are calling for a judicial review into the Government's decision to ban the sector, Greyhound trainer Craig Roberts shares what the ban will mean for him. Federated Farmers are warning of declining sheep numbers, Associate Agriculture Minister Andrew Hoggard tells Ryan Bridge what this means from a Government stand point. Ryan Bridge shares his thoughts on Winston Peters ruling out working with Chris Hipkins. Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on a snap ban on machetes in Victoria after a violent brawl in a suburban shopping centre. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

It wasn't a good weekend for Warriors or Auckland FC fans, with both teams losing to Australian rivals. Auckland FC lost To Melbourne Victory, destroying their A-League debut double dream. Meanwhile the Warriors winning streak came to an end when they lost 16-10 to the Raiders. Newstalk ZB's Andrew Alderson talks to Ryan Bridge about the weekend that was in sport. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Half of the children on the dental surgery waitlist have been waiting for more than four months. Health New Zealand data shows nearly three-thousand kids have been waiting for more than 120 days. Otago dentistry Senior Lecturer Samuel Carrington tells Ryan Bridge waiting patients have complex issues with their teeth. "By the time Tamariki reach hospital care, they're usually in a lot of significant pain and have multiple infected or abscessed teeth," he says. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The European Union's trade chief said the 27-member bloc is committed to securing a trade deal with the US based on "respect" not "threats". It comes after US President Donald Trump threatened to slap a 50% tariff on all goods sent to the US from the EU. UK Correspondent Gavin Grey talks to Ryan Bridge about the message, and the scientists turning their attention to dolphins. LISTEN ABOVE. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Monday 26 May. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A view that new sanctions for beneficiaries failing to meet jobseeker obligations, are "sensible." The changes, as part of the Government's traffic light system, are being rolled out today. It includes money management - which puts half of someone's benefit onto a payment card, that can only be used at approved stores for four weeks. Former Welfare Expert Advisory Panel Member, Phil O'Reilly told Ryan Bridge sanctions encourage people to get off a benefit. He says they also keep taxpayers' faith in the system too.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

KiwiSaver. I was thinking about this at the weekend. I get why the government is doing the old switcharoo. I get it. Means test the government sweet we, halve it for everyone else… save some money. Then we workers… and our employers… will slowly put more into the scheme… So that when it all comes out in the wash, we're at least no worse off than before budget day. Except that we will be worse off, because it's us and our employers paying for it. We pay more up front. Our employers pay more up front. That's added cost. Businesses recover cost by putting up prices, which we end up paying, or by lowering costs, like wages… which is how most of us make a living, right? So the net effect is worse for us and better for the government. Now again, I get why they need to slash spending but the irony with tinkering with KiwiSaver is this. For your average kiwi working hard and saving and planning for retirement… that's what we're told to do…. These changes throw all your calculations out of whack. You plan on a long-term, predictable set of circumstances. When they're changed without warning and at random, it punishes people who are trying to do the right thing. We need more of a heads up on changes to KiwiSaver… and more importantly… NZ Super. It's not a matter of if but when that also gets means-tested. Even if the when is post-Winston. Nicola Willis says she's been giving this some thought. The future of superannuation. I'd like to know, and other hard-working Kiwi-savers I'm sure would also like to know, sooner rather than later, what those thoughts are. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Auckland FC are looking to book their spot in the A-League Grand Final. The club has the second leg of their A-League semi-final clash against Melbourne Victory tomorrow night. It's the home leg for AFC – with Go Media Mount Smart Stadium expected to be a sellout with 28-thousand fans. Football Commentator and Newstalk ZB's Weekend Sport host Jason Pine told Ryan Bridge with Auckland up 1-0, he absolutely backs the team to make the final. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour's defending its claim the Government's Kiwisaver changes steal 66-thousand dollars from a young person's retirement savings. The Government's halving its yearly contributions, and bringing in a cap at incomes of 180-thousand. Default employer and employee contributions will also rise to four percent. The party's finance spokesperson Barbara Edmonds told Ryan Bridge halving the Government's contribution will have a big impact. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Good morning and guess what? Things are looking up. The future's looking pretty good. Not from budget announcements themselves, necessarily, but the Treasury forecasts. We'll hit just shy of 3% growth next year. It'll average 2.9% across the next four years. Unemployment gets back below 5%. Inflation is beaten at 2%. Wages grow faster than costs at 2.7%. These are the best forecasts we have, and they show that even if the global outlook gets worse, we'll still grow by a whisker shy of 3% next year. We've been talking about them all year but thank the Lord for our primary sector exports. They're in high demand. Prices are up. Payouts are up. Tourism is coming back back on, albeit slowly. Finally, after effectively two years of going backwards, and four years of feeling very poor, things look like they're finally turning a corner. The good old days are coming back. But the pain isn't over yet. The forecasts have us actually going backwards 0.8% this year. And you can feel that and see it some of the confidence, employment, card spending and PSI data we spoke about the other day. The services sector is still in contraction, unlike most of our trading partners. The government surplus is also a fly in the ointment. Despite average growth of almost 3% a year for the next four years, Nicola Willis won't, in any of them, return to books surplus and actually start paying down the debt. Debt's costing us more than Defence, Police, Corrections, Justice, and Customs combined. It peaks at 46% in 2028 and won't come down below 40% target in this forecast period. Why not? Net debt doubled under the last lot and your net borrowing is still increasing as a proportion of the economy, and the economy's going to grow. Nicola Willis says this would have required harsher cuts to health and education. If you were running a business, you'd gut the costs out because there's more fat to trim. But she's not running a business, she's running a country. Cut too deep and your risk being turfed out in 2026 and the next lot reversing all the cuts anyway. In a way, deep cuts are less sustainable, politically, than smaller, incremental ones. That's not to take away from the growth track. The question of reliability is a reasonable one to ask. Treasury's been wrong before. The elephant in the White House is, of course, Donald Trump. He's to economists what cyclones are to meteorologists, quite hard to predict with accuracy. Trying to nail down an accurate forecast is like trying to whack a pinata, blindfolded, and drunk. So all of this is to say that finally, on the whole, you'd have to feel a bit more hopeful about the future of this country today than you did yesterday. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kiwisaver changes in this year's budget are expected to have long term benefits, but it might be a tough road for some to get there. While the Government's halving its contribution, its also gradually increasing the default rate from 3 to 4 percent. Analysis from the Retirement Commission says the vast majority of salary and wage earners will eventually have higher retirement savings. Simplicity Chief Economist Shamubeel Eaqub told Ryan Bridge these long term benefits will come with short term pain. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Listen to the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast for Friday 23 May. Get the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast every weekday morning on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The primary sector's going gangbusters, with a billion-dollar monthly trade surplus for the first time in five years. Stats NZ data reveals it sat on $1.4 billion in April, compared with a $12 million deficit for the same time last year. The dairy sector's been the big winner. Federated Farmers Dairy Chairperson Richard McIntyre told Ryan Bridge a lot of dairy farmers have smiles on their faces. He says they're proud of their contribution to the economy, and the wider standard of living they help Kiwis generate. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The country's soon going to see if the Government will stay true to its proclaimed 'year of growth'. Finance Minister Nicola Willis is hours away from unveiling her second budget and is promising no frills or excess. It's been slowly teasing figures, with a vast majority of initiatives being funded through cost-savings and cuts. Auckland Business Chamber CEO Simon Bridges told Ryan Bridge it'll need a sufficient response to where the country is at. He says businesses will be looking for strong, clear evidence of the "going for growth" agenda. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.