Early Edition with Kate Hawkesby

An economist says digging into today's inflation figures will reveal the real picture. Stats NZ is releasing Consumers Price Index figures later this morning - comparing prices between April and June, against the same period last year. Economists expect it surge to somewhere around four percent. Independent Economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge he's more interested in core inflation - which strips out food and energy. He says it's been stubbornly stuck on 2.5 percent and the Reserve Bank will want that lower. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A $60 million corporate welfare cheque for Golden Bay cement is fixing a symptom but not the disease. It's taxpayer money. It's not a loan. It's free money. Owner Fletcher Building has agreed, in return, to keep the thing open till 2040 and invest $150m phased over time. No doubt cement is important for building the country. But so was refined oil. We offshored that. So is milled timber, which we let go. So is food production, which we're letting fall over too. This is the problem with welfare. Once you start handing it out, everyone wants a piece of the pie. Fletcher Building is a conglomerate, listed both here and on the ASX. Their results are due out next month, which will now be watched very closely. Last week, the company increased its earnings guidance and turned a $45 million profit in the half year to December. Sure, it's not been without its problems and we've kept you updated on their restructures and legacy problems and the general state of construction. The only reason the government is doing this, in my view, is because unlike the other examples of paper mills and Wattie's, this one's caused not just by the price of labour and energy going north. It's the ETS. Fletchers buys credits to emit carbon while making its cement. This cost made the Northland plant unviable. Dead man walking. You can import cheap cement from offshore where they don't pay for emissions. Which makes them a cheaper option and we get undercut. The government reckons they went with a bailout rather than changing the ETS rules because they didn't want companies lining up for handouts. But that's exactly what will happen anyway. Any plant at risk of closure paying for emissions is now fair game. This might look like a single small-ish payment to a single business but it's actually a blank cheque they've signed, with the election round the corner, the sky's the limit.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 21st of July 2026, Inflation figures are out today, Independent Economist and Founder of Bagrie Economics, Cameron Bagrie tells Ryan what we can expect. Andy Burnham's been sworn in as the 7th UK Prime Minister in a decade, Financial Times Whitehall Editor, Lucy Fisher has the latest on who will be in his cabinet. The way Iwi talk to councils about their Treaty rights is changing under new RMA law changes, Parliamentary Under-Secretary to the Minister for RMA reform, Simon Court shares his thoughts. Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on a former defence force soldier pleading guilty to trafficking cocaine and avoids jail and a one in 15 million pregnancy sees identical quadruplets born in Queensland. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour says it's a shame the Government isn't pushing through new consent laws right now. National has announced if re-elected, it'll ensure consent has to be actively given, meaning there must be a "yes" rather than the absence of a "no". It says it brings us in line with other jurisdictions like the UK and parts of Australia. Labour Justice Spokesperson Camilla Belich told Ryan Bridge she agrees with the policy and says her party's been trying to get it across the line. She says National walked away from a bipartisan plan - instead opting to campaign on the change. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Monday 20th of July 2026, National's planned change to sex consent laws is getting very political, Labour Justice Spokesperson Camilla Belich shares her thoughts. Business Correspondent Vicky Pryce has the latest on Fifa's giving the Spain and Argentina World Cup Final the full super bowl treatment with its first-ever halftime show featuring Madonna and Justin Bieber, Sky News and Fox News Sports Presenter Alex Thomas has the latest from final. Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Andy Burnham, reported to be ready to allow new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea after he becomes UK prime minister and Andrew Tate and his brother Tristan, arrested in the US after British authorities announced they were bringing further charges against them. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

New Zealand First wants to spend a billion bucks looking for oil and gas fields to make our country rich again. Well, richer. A bit more like the place our kids go to earn a living, Australia, who've pulled in $430 billion in mining royalties over the past decade alone. A bit more like Norway, where per person GDP is $153,000, one of the highest in the world, ours is only about $85,000. The Norwegians, of course, got a big boost from oil post 1960s and have a $2-trillion wealth fund, which pays for the stuff the Greens and Labour here could only dream of. And herein lies one of two big problems with this country. The first one is not that we don't more children out of poverty or a generous welfare state or universal pensions. The problem is how you pay for them. Debt is a downward spiral but is how we've been operating since 2019. That's the last time the books actually balanced. So, there is logic in dragging oil and gas up out of the ocean to pay stuff, especially as the rest of the world, especially the US, is doing it anyway. Which brings us to the second problem with this issue, and Winston's plans for it, and that's the opposition. What's the point in us spending a billion bucks to look for oil the next government won't let anybody drill for? The only way this makes sense is if you get the big parties to agree with each other, we actually need another feather in our bow, economically speaking. Right now, Andy Burnham is having this very debate with his top advisors, including Mike Munro who worked for Jacinda Ardern. The British press is reporting Burnham is about to announce plans for new oil and gas drilling in the North Sea. Labour banned it. Burnham's a union guy, a worker guy, a more commonsense guy, so they say, and therefore he is about to turn the black tap on again. Chris Hipkins is not that guy for the New Zealand Labour party. And until the Opposition puts down its giant no sign, then spending a billion bucks looking for oil is throwing money down the dunny.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The All Blacks are facing a tough challenge this weekend. They're facing Ireland at Eden Park, aiming to continue their 52 match strong unbeaten record at the stadium. Dave Rennie has made a few changes to the squad ahead of the match – adding more bulk to the backline with Tupou Vaa'i shifted to blindside. Newstalk ZB's Voice of Rugby, Elliott Smith told Ryan Bridge that by and large, the All Blacks have picked a pretty strong side for this test. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Labour's employment spokesperson believes rising benefit numbers comes down to a weak economy. Latest MSD data shows almost 414 thousand people were receiving the main benefit at the end of June – up 1.9% year-on-year. 12.8% of the working-age population is drawing on the main benefit – up from 12.6% a year ago. Willow-Jean Prime told Ryan Bridge the stats reflect a failed government promise to improve the cost of living. She says cuts and delayed infrastructure projects have led to a loss of 20 thousand jobs in the construction sector alone. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There are hopes prices at the pump don't spike as fighting intensifies between the US and Iran. Strikes from both sides continue for the sixth day of renewed hostilities. The global oil price benchmark Brent Crude has been hovering around US$85 a barrel since the new fighting broke out – its highest point in a month. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge he's hopeful we don't see a return to the peaks of US$115 a barrel from when the war first broke out. He says we don't want to see diesel prices rise as that's used for all our delivery services. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Friday the 17th of July 2026, Social Development Minister Louise Upston is celebrating 5,000 more people than last year off the benefit and into work, Labour Social Development and Employment Spokesperson Willow-Jean Prime shares her thoughts. The All Blacks face a mighty challenge to their unbeaten record at Eden Park against the Irish this weekend, Newstalk ZB Voice of Rugby, Elliott Smith shares his thoughts. Informetrics says New Zealand is on the cusp of an economic recovery if fuel prices stay down, ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley tells Ryan if we're on the right track. Plus, UK Correspondent Vincent McAviney has the latest on Sir Keir Starmer awarded Ukrainian honour the Order of Freedom during his final visit to Ukraine and the UK government has said "the World Cup might not be ours, but the Falkland Islands definitely are," after Argentina players celebrated their victory over England by waving a banner in support of their country's territorial claim. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Welcome to New Zealand... land of earthquakes, stormy weather, and absolute natural beauty. Another reminder overnight of how shaky these isles can be. Hope everyone's alright this morning. It's always a bit hard to get back to sleep after a decent jolt and it sounds like you had one. We've always had storms, and damage from storms, in this country. But of late we've had more, more often, doing more damage, according to the insurance companies. We've got a bird with the flu in Petone, though it's not yet clear how that situation will play out poultry-wise. But it's, again, another reminder of threats to industry that we can't control. Like Foot and Mouth, which, if it took hold here, would be devastating. All of this is to say that there are a lot of things can go wrong in this country, and do go wrong, and often enough that it's actually quite predictable. We're top 10 countries for quakes. So, we need a buffer... need headroom for borrowing. With the election just around the corner, it's about time we heard from political parties on their debt limits. How much is too much? When will you get us back to surplus? What's your track record on actually doing that? Treasury tells us debt servicing is now the fourth-largest line item on the Government's books. Our annual interest bill? It was $3.6 billion in 2014. Now it's nearing $9 billion. If you look on a per household basis, it's tipped to be more than $5000 every year. In interest alone. Last night's quake, and the next storm, are nature's reminder of the need for fiscal discipline and plan to deal with them. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Hopes new pathways for global trade can be created as officials from small countries around the world meet in Auckland. Trade Minister Todd McClay's chairing the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership meeting tomorrow – bringing together delegates from 21 countries. It includes Liechtenstein, Malaysia, Panama, Rwanda, and Singapore. International Business Forum Executive Director Felicity Roxburgh told Ryan Bridge this group can tackle issues together. She says they can navigate tariff barriers and help create common certification. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

No surprises bird flu has reached our shores, as New Zealanders are asked to keep an eye out for transmission escalation. A sub-Antarctic seabird found on Wellington's Petone Beach last week has tested positive for the H5N1 strain. Officials say symptoms to look out for in birds include paralysis, shaking, respiratory issues, or diarrhoea. Otago University evolutionary virologist Jemma Geoghegan told Ryan Bridge there's no evidence of widespread transmission yet. She says once it starts spreading between birds on the mainland, that's when there's a risk the virus could get into poultry sheds and concerns would grow. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Belief sluggish retail spending is a reminder retailers need to stick to the basics. Stats NZ says core retail spending last month was only 0.4 percent higher year on year. Spending on clothes fell most - at 4.2-percent - its fourth straight decrease. First Retail Group Managing Director Chris Wilkinson told Ryan Bridge retailers have to be hungry in the market, with strong retail disciplines - but he understands it's tough. He says rising costs and distribution has made things challenging for retailers. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday 16th of July 2026, Bird flu has landed in New Zealand, University of Otago Professor, Evolutionary Virologist, Jemma Geoghegan tells Ryan how concerned we should be. Official Stats NZ Spending data shows a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.4% card spending in June compared with May, First Retail Group Managing Director Chris Wilkinson shares his thoughts. Trade Minister Todd McClay is hosting global officials for a big trade meeting on Friday, International Business Forum Executive Director Felicity Roxburgh shares her thoughts. Plus, US correspondent Katie Fisher has the latest on Iran developments and Donald Trump's Attorney General pick. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Is banning smart phones for kids a dumb idea? That would leave them with dumb phones, sans apps and the internet, just texts and phone calls. Remember the old Nokia? Or Alcatels? They came in that weird light orangey-peachy colour and a purpley-blue. David Seymour's talking about this after a blog post suggesting it'd be easier, and less restrictive for everyone else, if we banned the hardware not the software. Make smartphones like cigarettes or beer – if you saw a 12-year-old with one, you'd judge the parents, wouldn't you? At present, parents hand them out like candy, caving by osmosis to the their kid's peer pressure to own one. The social media bans don't seem to work very well —as we've spoken about before— half the Aussie kids get around theirs. Where there's a will, there's a way. Banning the actual device itself does, on the face of it, make more sense. You can still communicate, but not with the entire world. And not with the entire sum of human knowledge —good and bad— at your unsupervised fingertips. This way, adults can keep using social media and not have to use some ID or date of birth test to log in. Which all sounds great. Except the real problem here is parents themselves. They're often the ones on their phones and ignoring their kids in the first place. If you were a child, wouldn't you want to be doing whatever your parents are doing too? It doesn't really matter what the law says, and changing it won't change everything, it's ultimately up to adults raising those kids to teach them right from wrong, good from bad, and whether 8 hours a day doom scrolling is a behaviour that's acceptable – for them or their kids. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This autumn's been positive for farmers, with less debt and an improved relationship with banks. Agricultural lending dropped $1.4 billion to $61.2 billion in the year to April. A Federated Farmers survey also reveals record satisfaction with bank communication, with fewer farmers feeling undue pressure. Banking Spokesperson Mark Hooper told Ryan Bridge that banks are currently competing quite strongly for a share of the rural market, which in turn drives good service. He says a good relationship tends to override a lot of other outcomes – there may be variations in interest rates, but if they have good communication and a good relationship, people tend to be more satisfied. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Paul Henry's profile is expected to provide ACT with the exposure it may need going into the election. The former broadcaster's running as a party list candidate but is gunning for a ministerial role if elected. He's best known for hosting TVNZ's Breakfast in the early 2000s, where he famously mocked an Indian politician's name on air. Political commentator Brigitte Morten told Ryan Bridge people like Henry can change the dial. She says ACT's stagnated in the polls and is in need of attention in a crowded market, which Paul Henry has the power to bring. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Wednesday 15th of July 2026, former broadcaster Paul Henry's the next big name making the jump to parliament, Political Commentator Brigitte Morten tells Ryan what this will mean for the Act Party. The Reserve Bank says farmer lending dropped nearly one and a half billion in the year to April, Federated Farmers Banking Spokesperson Mark Hooper shares his thoughts. NZ Certified Builders CEO Malcolm Fleming shares his thoughts on Cotality data which shows residential construction costs up 1.1% in the three months to June. Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on UK Counter-terror police say the murder of the former Prisons Minister was a planned and targeted attack and several people have died in a fire at a building under construction in Brussels. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Good signals in the construction sector with costs much lower than the industry expected. The latest Cordell Construction Cost Index shows a 1.1% rise in the three months to June. Annual growth is at 3.5% - below the long-term average of around 4%. Certified Builders Chief Executive Malcolm Fleming told Ryan Bridge with the backdrop of the Iran war, they're surprised by the minimal rise. He says there is enthusiasm from industry we're at the bottom of a cycle and on the way up. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Swearing. Most of us do it. Unless you're a Bishop (or maybe they do it in private, too?). Especially in New Zealand. We all know what a GC is and it's nothing to do with the white sandy beaches of Queensland. You don't say them in front of mum, and you shouldn't shout them in anger at people, unless they really deserve it. But have you noticed the media's obsession with calling out people for swearing, lately? Exhibit A: furious Benji Marshall's (Wests Tigers coach) expletive-laden presser. The media had been saying he was in a spat with a now former player, and they were at war, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera. None of which, according to Benji, was true. So, he responds and they say he's ranting and swearing and 'going nuclear'. Isn't that what they used to call gaslighting? Then there was Winston Peters... Media called that one a foul-language outburst. How can a word so many people use be so offensive or worthy of mention? Christine Fletcher, Auckland Council, complains about swearing in the council chambers. The Dunedin council boss was done for swearing about councillors and calling them bad words behind their backs. Who hasn't done that? The truth is most Kiwis don't mind, occasionally. Too much and you sound like trash. Too little you sound too cautious. Directed in anger? Never a good idea and should not happen at work. The obsession with people using it from time to time, especially in the age of the internet where people do and say what they want? Waste of f***ing time. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Cabinet's being warned its window for a decision around replacing our two ageing warships is rapidly closing. An NZ Initiative research note says the frigates are set to retire within a decade and the complex geopolitical environment adds another layer of urgency. Retired Major General John Howard says we're seeing more volatility both in our region and at home. He told Ryan Bridge the country now has the option to think broadly about the maritime capabilities we want and how we defend our national interests. Howard says if we're going to be serious about maintaining a blue-water capability, then we need a minimum of four warships. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A sign the economy is getting back on track. The latest BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index shows the sector's grown in June – only the fifth month of growth in the last two and a half years. The hospitality industry is continuing to contract, but it's offset by the good results in transport and storage. Economist Cameron Bagrie told Ryan Bridge the car is moving in the right direction – we're not exactly sprinting or going at a full pace, but we're certainly moving towards where we need to be. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sir Sam Neill is being remembered as a gentle soul - who helped put New Zealand film on the map. The Northern Ireland-born actor, who moved here at the age of seven, has died suddenly aged 78. He was surrounded by family at a Sydney hospital. Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio tells Ryan what the reaction has been in Australia. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Tuesday 14th of July 2026 the services sector is just barely creeping back into growth, founder of Bagrie Economics Cameron Bagrie shares his thoughts. Retired Major General and New Zealand Initiative Senior Fellow John G. Howard, tells Ryan why he's sounding the alarm about the state of the New Zealand's Navy fleet. Plus, Australia Correspondent Donna Demaio has the latest on a former Sydney childcare worker charged with 329 offences and the Australian tributes for Sam Neill including Anthony Albanese. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

We're cruising towards 2% growth off the back of these two bits of good news on the economy. 2% is not rocketing along, but it's not stuck in a ditch either. And given the war, and diesel, and Trump, some (i.e. the Government) might even say it's fantastic. As you know, we follow the data quite closely on this show – many of you are businesspeople, farmers, small business owners, do-ers in the economy and want to know what's going on. Manufacturing hit it out the park and now services, two-thirds of our growth, is expanding. The key missing ingredient is consumer spending – discretionary spending. You see that in hospitality and the other fine print from the services sector read yesterday. And while an OCR hiking cycle doesn't help with confidence, most of it's priced in and at this point, the rates are still technically wind at our backs, not our faces. American consumers are far more robust and confident that us. They spend like tomorrow they'll win Lotto, and they basically do that 99% of the time. We're far more cautious, and often with good reason. Not only does that demand help push their economy along, even when headlines suggest they shouldn't, but their ability to dream big, invent new things, and create value is also important here. The AI surge. The share prices. The investment it generates. The plants it builds. The jobs it creates. If success is a positive mindset and unequivocal self-belief, the Americans have it bottled. We have it too, but perhaps we can take a leaf out of their book and actually believe it. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Monday 13th of July 2026, New Zealand and India have now agreed to a strategic partnership, India Business Council Chair, Edwin Paul shares his thoughts. The Employers and Manufacturers Association wants more certainty for businesses ahead of the election, Employment Expert, Max Whitehead tells Ryan what the Government needs to do to improve this. Business Correspondent Vicky Pryce has the latest on how the Strait of Hormuz closure has had an impact on oil prices, how much the proposed bank holiday will cost if England wins the World cup at the end of the week and worries about currently negotiated EU budget. Plus UK/Europe correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Police investigating the alleged murder of former UK Government Minister Ann Widdecombe and a man who was nearly sucked head-first out of a cabin window in mid-air on a Ryanair plane from Greece to Germany. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Narendra Modi's visit has added further impetus to the excitement surrounding the Indian market. India's Prime Minister attended a series of business, political and community events in Auckland on Saturday. He's agreed to a roadmap with Chris Luxon - aiming to double two-way trade by 2030. India Business Council Chair Edwin Paul told Ryan Bridge why he isn't concerned about the $20-billion-dollar investment question. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

TMI and TMO Dave Rennie had a bit of a crack at the TMO over the weekend. A FIFA ball hit a spidercam in the USA and Norway went nuts because the TMO didn't do anything about it. Apparently it should be an automatic drop-ball. Both of these these games, different sports, played half way round the world from each other, tell you all you need know about TMO's. When you're up and winning, they're always butting in where they're not wanted, aren't they? But when it's your team on the back foot and could do with a pesky technicality to get some points, or lose your opponents some, they come in handy. Sport is live and happens quickly. That's why it's exciting. So the only solution to this problem, which is only a problem exactly half the time, when your team is losing, is quite simple. Play without it! Things will get missed. Penalties go unawarded. Eyesight is not perfect. Line of sight is not perfect. Games move faster, but the results are less accurate. Or, you embrace the technology and the cameras and the man in the bunker. Hell, one day it'll probably just be all AI powered and decided. Personally, I'd rather something was quick and dirty than long and accurate. There's TMI from the TMO. Mistakes happen. Chances are they'll happen to everyone equally. We've played sports, of sorts, for centuries without the need for cameras and bunkers. We can, if we want, just keep doing that for a few centuries longer. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank says more OCR hikes are "likely", but it doesn't know how many more will be needed, or when they're likely to happen. The central bank's raised the cash rate to 2.5% – the first hike in more than three years. It wants to get the OCR back to a "neutral" level that doesn't contribute to inflation. ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley told Ryan Bridge they believe the bank will steadily lift interest rates over the rest of the year – bringing the cash rate back to 3.25% by the end of the year. He says there is a chance they'll pause along the way, but having done one, they think it's very likely they'll follow through in September. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Hurricanes' rampaging success in this year's Super Rugby championship may have helped the All Blacks sell out the Cake Tin. Around 34 thousand people are expected at Hnry Stadium on Saturday as the All Blacks take on Italy. The game had initially struggled to sell out, with four thousand tickets still available at the end of last week. Hurricanes Chairman Malcolm Gillies told Ryan Bridge there are 11 Wellington players in the All Blacks, and hopefully the Hurricanes' style of rugby carries over. The team's on-field Super Rugby success also looks to have influenced a major breakthrough off the field. The 2026 champions have had a troubled period financially – posting consecutive annual losses, including a $2 million deficit last year. But Gillies indicated that things are at last heading in the right direction. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's a suggestion a level playing field between gentailers and retailers is needed before homes switch to solar. Election policies of National and Labour would both let homeowners pay back low interest loans for solar through their rates. Labour's plan would also let local line companies provide loans, repaid through power bills. Director of solar company Lightforce John Harman told Ryan Bridge fair prices are needed for renters and low income homes to make the change. He says companies are making record profits from New Zealanders with high power prices and that's not going to stop. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The problem with bashing the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in real time is that nobody really knows how badly they might have cocked something until well after the cocking's happened. There weren't many —though not none— chiding Orr for low rates until it was bleedingly obvious in actual data, and what Prince Harry would term 'lived experience', that prices were on the march. The RBNZ has decided to hike now. They'll probably do another one in September, assuming Trump's ceasefire pause is just that, and beyond September is anyone's guess. One argument is that they'll hike in September, hold in October ahead of the election in November, then stick their finger in the air for December. Either way we're heading towards either 2.75% or 3% by Christmas. Most of this has been priced into wholesale rates. The justification for the hike, as has been pointed out by a couple of economists, is it's easier to swallow. For them to come out and say "we're hiking now because the economy is on the up, plus a bit of war pricing potential", that's a lot easier to stomach than "we're hiking now and there's no growth - welcome to stagflation nation". Tony Alexander makes the point that the bank has been criticised in the past for hiking too late, letting prices get away, then overcorrecting on rates, plunging us into a deep and uncomfortable recession. Given they're now moving relatively early, they can move and wait and see and (hopefully) avoid the same mistakes. I like to believe Tony's predictions. And I hope he's right. Managing the OCR is driving a rental car - you're unfamiliar with the pedals. Push too hard either way and you can quickly end up wrapped to lamppost or hit in the head by an airbag. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Thursday the 9th of July 2026, The Reserve Bank has finally pulled the trigger and hiked the OCR 25 basis points, ASB Chief Economist Nick Tuffley shares his thoughts. Labour's released a similar solar policy to National, John Harman, Director of Lightforce Solar tells Ryan which policy is better. Wellington's Cake Tin is officially sold out ahead of the All Blacks test against Italy on Saturday, Hurricanes Co-Owner & Chairman Malcolm Gillies shares his thoughts. Plus, US Correspondent Mitch McCann has the latest on what Trump's said at the NATO summit in Turkey and a New York building collapse. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sky TV is inking a deal with the NRL. They've locked in exclusive broadcast rights for the next seven years, the deal running from 2028 to 2034. It'll broadcast on their Sky Sport paid platform, with free to air options rumoured to come. NZ Herald Media Insider's Shayne Currie told Ryan Bridge that Sky has essentially claimed the top three sports for at least the next five years – NRL, rugby, and cricket. He says these lengthy deals for the really fan-engaging sports are going to leave TVNZ scrambling to pick up whatever it can for its fledgling digital subscription model. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Donald Trump's floating the idea of selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, despite a Congressional ban. The US President is in the country alongside other European leaders for a NATO summit – our Defence Minister Chris Penk is also heading there for the NATO Defence Industry Forum, and meeting counterparts from allied countries. Trump's suggested lifting US sanctions imposed on Turkey and a ban on F-35 sales for its purchase of a Russian air defence system, saying it's been a loyal ally. The Guardian's Ruth Michaelson told Ryan Bridge that everything Trump has said indicates he wants the sale to go ahead – whether Congress will allow it is another question. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

There's division over whether the Official Cash Rate will be hiked or hold steady at 2.25%. ANZ and BNZ are both picking it will be raised by 25 points. NZIER is expecting the Reserve Bank's board to be split and for Governor Anna Breman to make the captain's call on it. NZIER Senior Economist Ting Huang told Ryan Bridge her own group had mixed views but one prevailed. She says the majority of members thought holding it at 2.25% was the best option. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

On the Early Edition with Ryan Bridge Full Show Podcast Wednesday the 8th of July 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky's urging allies to get more air defence systems to Ukraine as Russian attacks escalate. NZ Herald media insider Shayne Currie has the latest on Sky beating TVNZ to secure NRL rights for another seven years. NZIER Senior Economist Tina Huang takes her pick for what the Reserve Bank will do with the OCR. Plus, UK/Europe Correspondent Gavin Grey has the latest on Nigel Farage resigning, but re-standing as an MP forcing a byelection in his SE England seat and a French court verdict ruling nationalist frontrunner Marine Le Pen can stand in next year's presidential election. Get the Early Edition Full Show Podcast every weekday on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Where is National's social media bill at? We know Seymour doesn't like it. Winston is apparently has reservations with the wording, though that's only according to Stuff, rather than the man himself. Labour might need to step in and save the day by supporting it from across the aisle. In Australia, half the kids who were on socials are still on socials. Here, there's no shortage of famous and big-money backers behind a ban. And Erica Stanford's been on the case. Yesterday, Gemma McCaw was talking about it – she's part of the group wanting a ban. Personally, I don't think social media is a net positive for society. But I don't think we'll ever fully get rid of the thing completely. Doesn't happen. Not with booze, not with cigarettes, and it won't with social media. Which is not a reason not to do it, but it seems like National's having a very hard time getting this across the line. Which Luxon won't like. It's one of his babies – like the India FTA. He'll want to head to the polls with a bill under his belt, telling parents their kids will be saved from the perils of the internet. So the ball looks to be in Hipkins' court. Does he help Luxon out and make himself look more Prime Ministerial and above-the-fray, as Key did with Helen Clark and the anti-smacking law? That probably depends on the actual wording of the bill, which we haven't seen, because you can't back something that won't work or doesn't make sense, no matter how morally, or politically, worthy it might be.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Federated Farmers is challenging the Green Party's crack down on nitrate levels in fresh water. If elected, the party's promising stronger national standards for fresh water, more robust rules for wastewater discharges, and the phasing out of synthetic nitrogen fertiliser. Federated Farmers West Coast President Simon Cameron told Ryan Bridge there have been issues in the past, but the industry has come a long way. He says phasing out nitrogen fertilizer would reduce the country's production by at least 25%, and as an export nation, our income would be threatened. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Technology Minister says the global demand for more data centres is great, as the Government pushes to bring more here. Invest New Zealand is looking to attract up to $30 billion in offshore investment in the centres over five years. It says it could generate $70 billion in broader economic activity and employ up to 3,500 people. Technology Minister Penny Simmonds told Ryan Bridge the digital economy needs infrastructure – anyone who's streamed a movie or banked online is part of this digital economy. She's offering assurances that we have enough energy to power the data centres, saying that we already have 56 facilities, which use only 0.6% of our total power. Simmonds told Bridge we're extending our renewable generation, which will help meet future demand. The Minister says nine energy projects are going through fast track, and if we weren't expanding generation, then she'd be worried. LISTEN ABOVE See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The India Business Council isn't surprised to see the Free Trade Agreement have an impact already, before coming into force. New export numbers show apples are in high demand – volumes jumping 63% on the 2024 season when negotiations began. Last month, Matariki Forests sent its first shipment of logs from Bluff to India since 2020. Council Chair Edwin Paul told Ryan Bridge there's an increase in general business confidence. He says there's also a real interest in the likes of mean, wood, honey, and technology. LISTEN ABOVESee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.