Investor Insights

The great lesson of markets. Those who can react the least and stay focused on the long-term, tend to see the best results. Sure some years stink...but that has always been the case. Too much data has everyone thinking there is an easy way to sidestep problems. In fact, problems are part of the trip - a required part - to get long-term results. Ask yourself this: Think of the wealthiest market-timer you know? Think long - there is not one. There are also no market-timers on Forbes 400....and there never has been. Stay focused and be patient with your planning processes.

Data are improving, jobs are solid, personal income rising, mountains of cash in the bank and we are in the midst of the early stages of the latest earnings season. By the end of Q3 data, we will have round-tripped most of the energy collapse and bad comps. Hinting that earnings projections are increasing. Soon, 2016 will be forgotten and 2017-2018 will be the focus - and they are rising. So is the GDPNow data.

Here we are - new highs. And almost no celebration. I think I saw two headlines. This is good news for long-term investors as fear remains deep-seeded. The longer that lasts, the healthier the markets can remain. No man's land - new highs - just like 1982 all over again.

One would think that all-time highs would have rung in an enormous number of bulls. Indeed, that could not be farther from the case. Data show we now have 37 weeks in a row - and 70 out of last 71 weeks - showing lower bullish readings than normal. This registering at all-time new highs. Stunning.

Even as the masses crawl from one headline problem to the next, the real surprise is the markets are setting up to reach all-time highs far sooner than most recognize. Even in this near two year "waiting period" or lunch stop as we like to call it - the earnings from companies have fallen just 2.7% from their peak. This is after the complete collapse of the earnings from the entire energy sector. Upside remains the surprise.

All the angst over Brexit and it has served as nothing more than another opportunity to take advantage of panic - or in this case "Branic." The dust will settle and the odds are high that years from now we will witness this as something different - another opportunity to improve when most thought it would be bad.

While too many fret over every element in the news, data are improving on several fronts for the US. It seems pretty consistent - when other regions of the world get shaky--the US economy picks up the slack.

In this episode we simply remind everyone that the "angst" (wasted) over Brexit will surely last for awhile, or until the media can find a new monster to tout. This one will serve us better in the US after all the dust has settled. Until then, stay focused on the Barbell Economy - it's working. And the summer haze has a bit more to go so let's stay patient. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Hard to believe but the second quarter has come to a close and half of 2016 is already behind us. Let's take it as a lesson: stop wasting time following the news, the media hype and the wasted-energy noise. Thinking in terms of lack has been a losing bet for decades. Bearish chatter is just that - chatter. Yes, there are tough parts of the pathway but the pathway is up a mountain over time. Don't waste another moment thinking in lack formation. Instead look at history and realize the abundance that awaits us here in the US. The Barbell Economy is real...stay focused on it, connect with it and ride the wave of massive change and upside ahead as Generation Y takes the baton - and drives us to places we cannot even imagine right now.

As we all prep for a long weekend break which typically markets the middle of summer for kids out of school, the markets have almost completely recovered from the latest media-driven Armageddon: Brexit. At the end of the day, we expect more of the same: wasted fears, overblown risks, finely-defined ignorance and agreements in the EU which accomplish little and improve even less. Meanwhile, the US continues to strengthen while too many focus on yet another media darling. Stop acting like a moth to a flame. After all, we should know by now what usually happens to the moth.

We are told when younger to count to 100 before we get angry or do something we might regret later. In a play on that topic, I have gotten to 168,477 in my counting as we wade through the wasted Brexit reactions and patiently suggest we look for opportunity in the hoped for summer swoon.

In this episode, we cover the reality of Brexit. Little will change - and much may get better. In any event, it will be years before it is done - hence the need to remain focused on Common Sense. History is fiulled with periods like we are dealing with noe - periods where too many sold first and asked quesitons later. Only to enter back into the markets at much higher prices when "the future was more clear." Trust us, the future is never clear. But that is ok - it never has been before either.

Oh Boy....another Apocalypse Now. We suspect sooner rather than later, this woo shall turn into an Apocalypse Later. Markets are doing what they are supposed to do during panics: they are transferring stock from the hands of short-term speculators who are often too impatient into the hands of long-term investors building assets on the cheap. How many times do we need to see this before we get control of our emotions. Summer swoons are good in the long-run.

Yes, expect a second day of selling follow-through as the weekend heaped bad news onto all investors who were too busy at work to sell on Friday. We suspect this will be a second wave of sellers - once again overlooking the main driver of the US economy for the next 30-40 years. The good news? It is nothing at all to do with Brexit.

The first real day of summer and here we are - bored stiff. Plenty to fret over with markets gyrating back and forth about the Fed hikes and Brexit. Those are the monsters of the day. They will pass - and soon be replaced by bigger, uglier more dangerous monsters - like always. Stay focused and don't get sucked into the constant flow of worry.

The funny thing about the future is that it is impossible to predict yet the masses are constantly listening and reacting to a myriad of predictions from experts who are consistently wrong. Not sure what is worse - listening in the first place or continuing to listen after such a horrible record. Listen in here and let us know what you think.

As a play on words we blended Britain and wasted and got Brasted energy. The day of voting was setting up everyone for the results. People the world over were on pins and needles - for what? Something which falls under the "this too shall pas" category no matter the outcome.

So they did it! Brexit is real - or so we think. It will take years to actually be implemented. In this episode we cover the one issue you do not want to succumb to is panic. We have been through much worse - and all turned out fine. Stay patient.

It's summer. We have seen this movie before. Low volumes, more chop, louder news headlines to get your attention. There are some things worth paying attention to - so let's focus on those issues instead of all the negatives. Grab some popcorn and remember this: Fear drives your attention, people drive markets. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Along with being the previous largest generation of all time to hit the US economy, the Boomers also created more wealth than any other generation of our time. That wealth shift - along with the surging impact of Generation Y - the new largest generation to every hit our economy - is set to make for significant surprises ahead. Listen in and let us know what you think.

So many investors think that P/E's, rates, margins, earnings growth, PEG ratios and the constant growth of same are the key ingredients to successful portfolio decisions. If that were really the case, why then is everyone still so dissatisfied? Why then does the public get just 30% of what the market produces over long periods of time? The facts? Focus on people first - they drive markets and knowing when that pipeline of buyers is getting smaller or larger is vital to understanding where a company is headed. Just a Levi's and Honda motorcycles why their sales fell off a cliff. It's because their buying audience collapsed.

Masked by all the hype, soundbite, headline and worry-a-second hysteria we seem to now deem as normal for markets and investing, the Fed data this week shows we have NEVER been richer. That's right, in all of time before us, inclusive of every single element we fear today, having already happened, US wealth - per capita, nominal and per household, has never been greater. Those who have suffered are often those who have panicked about the future. Face it folks, we can wish it away if we like, but our demographics are set in stone....and they will last for decades. Not weeks, not in a quarterly earnings report, not missing by a penny....but decades of time. Think demographics - not economics. We are in great shape. Listen in and let us know what you think!

Ah yes, 10 days into summer and we are already hearing the call of the Black Swan. Who on Earth knows what it will be next. Brexit is in line, the Fed rate hike or not is here too. How about China? Wasn't that the monster of the week recently? The bottom line: pray for a summer swoon. Yes, that's right - pray for one. Why? History tells us that, given the fact we are a mere 3% from all-time highs, every single one of them have been opportunities at lower prices. Listen in and let us know what you think!

When I was a kid, my early years were focused on sailing the oceans. I learned much about life, people - and markets - as we sailed race after race - winning most. Amazingly, 40 years later - all the lessons still serve us well. The two most important for markets and generational wealth-building: 1) Stay focused on the current - not the surface of the water and 2) Keep a steady hand on the wheel during storms. Listen in and let us know what you think!

When I was two years into the biz - in 1984 - during a particularly stressful week, someone I learned to respect greatly over time told me this: "Kid, there is a lot less to trading than meets the eye." He was correct. Our mind is what gets in the way along the path. It is not the market that fools us - it is us who fools us. Stay focused, be patient. Our best days are STILL ahead. Listen in and let us know what you think!

There is an age-old quest for investing with no risk. There is no such thing. Money for nothing is only a line in a song - not a secret pathway through the investing world that only a few know about. Make sure you understand one fact about investing: If you expect a return, you will be taking risk. Said another way, you want no risk, a) you are not investing and b) you cannot expect a return. Once these facts are accepted, the emotional triggers that "risk" causes in the minds of most investors will dissipate. Listen in and let us know what you think.

The jobs report on Friday suddenly drove the experts to suggest that the economy was running on empty. Nothing could be further from the truth. We need to realize the difference between 30-day reports which will change dynamically at times and 30-year trends which cannot be interrupted. There will always be ebbs and flows in the monthly and weekly views. Long-term investors must recognize these issues as opportunistic and not something to fear. Listen in and let us know what you think.

As covered before, summer swoons are positive - not something to be afraid of. The issue we might want to consider is this: After all the mess of the last 18 months, with the market basically going nowhere, the surprise might be that we break out to new highs sooner than expected. Listen is for more.

Ok so we made it through the sell in May process and now need to make sure we are aware of the next issue the press will make a big deal of - summer. Lets hope for a summer swoon to keep the fear in place and the values solid for long-term investors.

Here we cover the hot topics before the Memorial Day Break. The GDP revision was upward as expected - listen in for more.

In this episode we cover the very dynamic economic issues powering ahead for the US - in a positive way - under all the negative chatter in the headlines. Learn this: the news is designed to get your attention. The media cannot get your attention with good news - so they scare you with bad news. Be unafraid. Participate in this set of ideas instead: Generation Y is going to change the world. Most did not recognize this in the early 80's when the Baby Boom was set to explode into our economic system. Gen Y is bigger, better, smarter. They have just begun. It is the first inning of a new ballgame. Just like when the shuttle took off - T-30 seconds and counting was always an exciting time before lift-off. Stay patient and focused. Happy Memorial Day weekend.

Well what do you know, economic data are improving in all fronts: housing, retail, incomes, profits, GDP, industrial production and durable goods orders. Focus on the doom-sayers at your peril. The world is not ending. Indeed, thanks to Generation Y and the Barbell Economy, we have a rocket ship getting ready to leave the launch pad. Explosive surprises are ahead as 86 million kids begin to grow up and impact the world in wonderful ways - all from the US economy platform. Listen in and let us know what you think.

For years the audience has been taught to ret over "the Fed Minutes." It is as though we have simply added new trash to the pile of things to worry about. In the long run, they mean little, if anything. Having started in this business in 1982, I can confidently tell you that for the first 25 of those years, no one ever spoke about the Fed Minutes. In time we will find there is such a thing as too much stuff to read and "be aware of." Investors need to embrace that our best days are ahead of us. Stay focused on that and listen in - let us know what you think.

Bottom line: now that the entire world is fretting over deflation and cheap oil, we suggest to you that inflation is coming back. Before you get frightened, inflation is a good thing. Most assuredly one would want inflation over deflation. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In the most recent minutes from the Fed, there was "shock" that we may indeed face another 25 basis point rate hike in June. Here is the difference this time though: less than 48 hours later, the market was higher than where it was before the minutes were released. This is a character shift that we suspect will be very important a couple years down the road - and in a good way for investors focused on the long-term horizon.

Far too many investors have been led astray by bogus definitions of our "paltry" economic growth. In reality, since 2012, we have added $2 TRILLION to our annual GDP. Do we really want to call that a failed recovery? Before you assume the media has it right, we have NEVER created $2 Trillion in new GDP in a span of 42 months - in the history of our country. The good news is that our best days are still ahead....hold on.

Like the shuttle when the countdown hits T minus 5 seconds and the massive engine ignites, many do not understand the powers which are brewing under the surface of the US economy. We are the only western developed economy with the demographic benefits unfolding. Don't get too bored - it takes time - but the trends last 30 years.

As investors viewing the long-term horizon, sometimes one needs to stand tall to see over all the weeds. Higher altitude viewing provides a better perspective often in this age of push button reactions. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Too many investors are reaching hasty conclusions which always lead them to believe the end of life as we know it somehow near. Once monster after another comes and goes. There is no Apocalypse awaiting us all. Indeed, we will set records in GDP output this year - like we have for every year other than two in recent decades (2008/2009). Our economy is heading into growth stages most do not understand. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Many times in history we have seen a pause that lasts a couple years. This one is going on 19 months old and the markets have gone nowhere fast. Lots of churn - lots of trepidation - lots of overblown fears and angst. In the end, we are not as bad off as feared. We need to simply recognize this as a lunch stop on the way up a very large mountain. The coming summer swoon lookout rule? Look for opportunity for long-term growth as too many will remain afraid. Listen in and let us know how you feel.

How many times have the experts excuses of the moment for certain doom been proven wrong. How many times have we been told something was bad for us - only to see that the opposite scenario is also bad? It is was not so sad it would be funny. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In this episode we review a few current stats - and ask this question: Are we really not seeing the obvious? We are at record high GDP - even as we watch a pause in the pace of growth.

Even though we have suggested May and the summer doldrums could work against the market and cause another swoon (to take advantage of), we stand by the idea that the bear argument continues to ring hollow. In this episode we stand back for a larger view of the data and reconsider one thought: it's better than the masses understand. That said, patience will be tested again before we are out of the cloud of dust.

Too much confusion, too much data, too many opinions, too much stress, so little time. This has historically led to poor decisions for many. Let's step way back and see the bigger picture with a far more productive perspective. Listen in and let us know what you think.

We have watched the markets move to and fro for the last 18 - almost 19 months now, effectively going nowhere. Indeed, over the last 12 months, all major averages are in the red - year to date - they are they are teetering between red and green, depending on the week. Walking in quicksand is what we call it. We have had periods like this before - the mid-80's and '94-'95. Both looked bleak - both were a pause. Both were as frustrating and tense as we find ourselves now. But, neither turned into a recession - both in fact, were turned out to be foundations from which we launched the next growth wave. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Too many think they can be ready for the next surprise. It's called a surprise for a reason - no one sees it coming. Black Swans are the same by the way - hence, they are impossible to see before they arrive which is their definition. Here is the kicker though: Not everything "out of left field" is going to be negative. Listen in and let us know what you think.

Earnings seasons are almost always the same in recent years - full of stress and anxiety about results - from the last 90 days. In this episode we cover just how much can be overlooked when we think in constant terms of "worst-case scenario" on nearly every data point released. Listen in and let us know what you think.

As we approach May, one can already hear the chatter about "sell in May and go away". If it only worked so easily. History tells us we are far better off using the summer swoons to build upon, rather than run from. Listen in and let us know what you think.

In this episode we cover the aspects of the slower growth GDP readings as well as all the reasons we should not be shocked. After-all, once you listen in, it will be easy to recognize why we have this tepid economic growth. It's a combination of fear, anxiety and fiscal policies which are stifling the ability for business to expand. Lopping billions off the top of the growth we are seeing for social program investments nullifies most of the efforts.

In this episode we review why the earnings season may give us another wave down to take advantage of in building for the surprising upside in our future as Generation Y takes the reins.

In this episode we cover the lengthy earnings parade which happens 4 times a year. The process has become cumbersome as the media and headline machine drives volatility. Make sure to listen in and let us know what you think. The real earnings "recession" will end as soon as we round-trip the energy sector implosion and sector adjustment.