Podcasts about gdpnow

Welcome to Bond Investment Mentor! In this episode, Chris discusses prepayment risk, why it may be making a comeback, and how to manage this risk in investment portfolios.In this episode:Celebrating five years of BIM1 (1:06)Bond market update (2:40)Bond rally and interest ratesFed Chair Powell commentsThe importance of "strategic patience"What's happening with the GDPNow model? (7:30) - Check out Atlanta Fed GDPNowThe return of prepayment risk management (12:32)How to work with Chris (36:00) (LEARN MORE)If you have questions about anything covered in this episode, please email me at Chris @ BondInvestmentMentor.com.Do you know someone who could benefit from this information? Please share this episode and podcast with them!You will find more articles, tips, and resources about fixed-income investing and portfolio management at BondInvestmentMentor.com. Check it out!Let's Connect via Social Media!LinkedIn: Christopher Nelson, CFA

Tariff talk is giving markets a fit, unable to price equities or make reasonable earnings estimates amidst the on-again, off-again tariff threats. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds' Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter. Confused? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. How do these affect economic forecasts for 2025? How do they align with recession predictions vs growth outlook and the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook? What should investors do when presented with conflicting economic indicators, and how should you factor-in market uncertainty analysis? Also a look at the impact of Gold on the trade deficit, and a look at the Debt Ceiling and X-Date. SEG-1: Tariff Talk & Sentiment Shift SEG-2: Bear Porn Nirvana SEG-3: GDP Now & Nowcast Divergencies SEG-4a: Impact of Gold on Trade Deficit SEG-4b: The Debt Ceiling and X-Date Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qizvC5xxIX0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1409s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Correction Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-correction-over/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Tariff Talk Tatters Traders," is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNacMxVvnQA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Risk of Recession Rising?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLfl-tzH17k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1984s ------- Get more info & commentary: https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EconomicForecasts #GDPNow #Nowcast #MarketOutlook2025 #RecessionOrRecovery #InvestingInUncertainty #TariffTalk #AutomobileTariffs #EconomicOutlook #MarketRisk #FinancialTalk #InvestingInsights #StockMarketRally #BullMarket #InvestingTips #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #MarketRally #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection #MarketBottom #MarketVolatility #StockMarketUpdate #MarketCorrection #StockMarketUpdate #MarketCorrection #Investing2025 #Tesla #Savanna Bananas #FinancialNews #EconomicOutlook #FinanceTalk #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Tariff talk is giving markets a fit, unable to price equities or make reasonable earnings estimates amidst the on-again, off-again tariff threats. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow economic forecasting tool predicts an imminent recession, which is fueling investor angst. However, the New York and St. Louis Feds' Nowcast economic forecasts predict continued economic growth in the first quarter. Confused? Lance Roberts & Michael Lebowitz explore the GDPNow and Nowcast models to understand the recent forecast divergences. How do these affect economic forecasts for 2025? How do they align with recession predictions vs growth outlook and the Federal Reserve interest rate outlook? What should investors do when presented with conflicting economic indicators, and how should you factor-in market uncertainty analysis? Also a look at the impact of Gold on the trade deficit, and a look at the Debt Ceiling and X-Date.   SEG-1: Tariff Talk & Sentiment Shift SEG-2: Bear Porn Nirvana SEG-3: GDP Now & Nowcast Divergencies SEG-4a: Impact of Gold on Trade Deficit SEG-4b: The Debt Ceiling and X-Date Hosted by RIA Advisors Chief Investment Strategist Lance Roberts, CIO, w Portfolio Manager Michael Lebowitz, CFA Produced by Brent Clanton, Executive Producer ------- REGISTER FOR OUR NEXT CANDID COFFEE (3/29/25) HERE: https://streamyard.com/watch/Gy68mipYram2 ------- Watch today's full show video here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qizvC5xxIX0&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1409s ------- Articles mentioned in this report: "Is The Correction Over?" https://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/is-the-correction-over/ ------- The latest installment of our new feature, Before the Bell, "Tariff Talk Tatters Traders," is here:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNacMxVvnQA&list=PLwNgo56zE4RAbkqxgdj-8GOvjZTp9_Zlz&index=1 ------- Our previous show is here: "Is the Risk of Recession Rising?" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uLfl-tzH17k&list=PLVT8LcWPeAugpcGzM8hHyEP11lE87RYPe&index=1&t=1984s ------- Get more info & commentary:  https://realinvestmentadvice.com/newsletter/ -------- SUBSCRIBE to The Real Investment Show here: http://www.youtube.com/c/TheRealInvestmentShow -------- Visit our Site: https://www.realinvestmentadvice.com Contact Us: 1-855-RIA-PLAN -------- Subscribe to SimpleVisor: https://www.simplevisor.com/register-new -------- Connect with us on social: https://twitter.com/RealInvAdvice https://twitter.com/LanceRoberts https://www.facebook.com/RealInvestmentAdvice/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/realinvestmentadvice/ #EconomicForecasts #GDPNow #Nowcast #MarketOutlook2025 #RecessionOrRecovery #InvestingInUncertainty #TariffTalk #AutomobileTariffs #EconomicOutlook #MarketRisk #FinancialTalk #InvestingInsights #StockMarketRally #BullMarket #InvestingTips #MarketTrends #FinancePodcast #MarketRally #MarketSellOff #MarketCorrection #MarketBottom #MarketVolatility #StockMarketUpdate #MarketCorrection #StockMarketUpdate #MarketCorrection #Investing2025 #Tesla #Savanna Bananas #FinancialNews #EconomicOutlook #FinanceTalk #InvestingTrends #InvestingAdvice #Money #Investing

Keskustelemassa pääanalyytikko Jan von Gerich Nordeasta ja seniorimarkkinaekonomisti Jari Hännikäinen OP:sta. Toimittajana Mikko Jylhä. Huolet Yhdysvaltain ajautumisesta taantumaan ovat voimistuneet. Fedin Atlantan aluepankin GDPNow-mallin mukaan maan talous supistuisi tammi-maaliskuussa lähes kolmen prosentin vauhtia vuositasolle laskettuna. ”Perusskenaario on edelleen, että jenkkitalous jatkaa kasvussa. Mutta mikä se tahti on, se on avoin kysymys tällä hetkellä”, sanoo Jari Hännikäinen. Yhdysvaltalaisten kuluttajien odotukset tulevaisuuden suhteen ovat laskeneet lukemiin, jotka ovat tyypillisiä taantumille. ”Kuluttajatkin ovat ryhtyneet huolestumaan, että ehkä Trumpin politiikka onkin inflatorista, vaikka Trump muuta sanoo. Toistaiseksi suurimmat muutokset on nähty luottamusluvuissa, ei niinkään toteutuneessa kulutuksessa tai kasvussa”, jatkaa Jan von Gerich. Nordeakaan ei näe, että USA:n talous olisi painumassa taantumaan lähitulevaisuudessa. 00:33 USA:n taloustilanne 15:07 Tuontitullit 25:53 Mar-a-Lagon sopimus 33:40 Fedin maaliskuun kokous 40:55 Euro ja dollari 42:41 Euroalue, puolustuspaketit 55:29 Suomi: pohja takana? 58:21 Huomioita Kiinasta 1:04:00 Pörssit ja sijoittaminen

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news financial markets are sensing a turn lower in the giant US economy and a risk-off tone is spreading. Impending new tariff announcements there are casting a pall over everything.First, despite another fall in long term mortgage interest rates, US mortgage applications were weak last week. They fell by -2% in the week following a -6.2% drop in the previous week. Applications to refinance a home loan decreased -5% to the lowest level in a month. But applications for a mortgage to purchase a new home rose +1%.New American durable goods orders in February unexpectedly rose +0.9% from January, following an upwardly revised +3.3% jump that prior month. This February result was much better that the anticipated -1% fall. But year-on-year the gain was just +0.5% and the result was largely ignored by financial markets, partly because it isn't expected to signal any longer improvement. On-off defence aircraft orders (+9.3%) accounted for most of the gains. Non-defence, non-aircraft orders for capital goods were -1.2% lower in February than a year ago. Markets noticed that.They probably also noticed the latest update of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking showing a current estimate of Q1-2025 economic activity shrinking at a -1.8% rate. This updated real-time estimate is unchanged from last week. It is also worth noting that the benchmark "Blue Chip Consensus" forecasts are starting to waver now too as the quarter comes to an end.Across the Pacific, Singapore's industrial production took quite a tumble in February from January, enough to turn its year-on-year change from a +8% rise in January into a -1.3% decline in February. The month-on-month reversal was a very sharp -7.5%.In Europe, the UK said their inflation rate dipped to 2.8% in February from 3.0% in January, marginally below market expectations of 2.9%, though in line with the Bank of England's forecast.In the EU, facing security threats from Russia, and a US 'ally' that is pulling back and effectively encouraging Moscow, is saying every citizen should stockpile enough food to be self-sufficient for at least 72 hours in case of crisis. Most EU states are sharply raising defence preparedness.Australia is in its post-budget debate period. No announcement yet on an election date but it is widely expected over the next few days.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.34%, up +4 bps from yesterday at this time. Wall Street has started its Wednesday session and dipping further by -1.2% on the S&P500 on a tech sell-off. The Nasdaq is down -2.1%. The price of gold will start today at just on US$3016/oz and down a net -US$10 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just und US$70/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is now just on US$74/bbl. The new American tariff threats on using Venezuelan oil are disrupting supply.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.4 USc and unchanged from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are back up +10 bps at 91.1 AUc. Against the euro we are up +10 bps at just over 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67, and up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today at US$86,866 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.1%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news we are heading into a week where the data won't be as important as the policy decisions made and about to be made. And we do seem to be seeing a shift in great-power economic fortunes; the US fading while China get up off its knees.Although there are only a few key data releases in New Zealand, Australia will release its monthly inflation indicator for February this week on Wednesday and its monthly household spending indicator on Thursday. These will both feed into their election campaign narratives. And later today we will get a first look at their March PMI tracking.There will be similar 'flash' PMIs from Japan, India, the EU and the US out this week too. South Korea will release business and consumer confidence data while Singapore will release its February inflation rate.And in the US it will be all about personal income and spending, consumer sentiment, durable goods orders, pending home sales, and the final estimate of Q4-2024 GDP.In the US this week all eyes will be on how the threatened 'reciprocal tariffs' play out. Those around Trump seem to be starting to realise that tariffs are a tax on yourself, so are growing less certain they are a good idea. The talk now is a scaling back of the 'promised' action threatened to take effect on April 1 (US time), just nine days from now.No doubt they are very aware of the signals the widely-respected Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is giving.In Canada, retreating car sales, especially of American brands, has seen their February retail sales take an unexpected dip. They fell by -0.4% from the previous month and January was revised lower, so that is back-to-back falls in retail sales for the first time since June 2024. A +0.3% rise was anticipated in February. Year on year, February retail sales were up +4.2%.And in Canada, the Liberal government has called an election on April 28 (Saturday NZT). The race is set to revolve around who is best placed to fend off Trump. Trump pettiness is sure to be an issue.The Japanese inflation rate dipped to 3.7% in February from a 2-year high of 4.0% in January. Helping was a sharp pullback in price of electricity, up +9.0% in February from a year ago, back from +18.0% in January on the same basis. New utility bill subsidies are behind that shift. So this isn't likely to shift the Bank of Japan from its rate rising path.As expected, Malaysia's CPI inflation rate came in at +1.5%, but that was its lowest since February 2021. Their food prices were stable, housing costs fell.In China, they are piling on the pressure to try and stop the Hong Kong company who owns the Panama port facilities from completing the deal to sell it to America's Blackrock. CK Hutchison is in an impossible situation now, a pawn between great powers. How this one falls will likely tell us a lot.Meanwhile, their retail sales activity is on the rise. (At +4.0% year on year and rising from +3.7% in December, and that now bests the US's +3.1% and a fall from +4.4% in December, on the same basis.)In a bit of a surprise to many analysts, EU consumer sentiment did not improve in March as it has done previously in 2025, rather it dipped lower. To be fair, it has been deeply negative since mid-2021 and running below its long term average for the past two years.Here's something you don't see every day. A ratings agency putting a whole sector on 'watch' - in advance of failures. This is from Australia's SQM Research who now say the private credit sector (aka, the private debt sector, or 'private equity') is facing a wave of bad loans. It has a list of 14 issues that the sector is deficient with. Companies owned/funded by this sector are at heightened risk of short-term cut-and-run strategies, making matters worse.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.25%, unchanged from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3023/oz and up a net +US$9 from Saturday.Oil prices are stable from Saturday at just under US$68.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is still just over US$72/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.3 USc and down -10 bps from this time Saturday. A week ago, it was at 57.5 USc. Against the Aussie we are holding at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 53 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.9, and unchanged. A week ago it was at 66.7.The bitcoin price starts today at US$85,264 and up +1.6% from this time Saturday. A week ago it was at US$84,261. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been low at +/- 0.9%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

This week, host Ben Floyd is joined by David Duong and Joshua Pak to break down the latest market action and key developments shaping the crypto landscape.We start with an overview of market trends, including ETF flows, basis, funding rates, CEX vs DEX volumes, and sector winners and losers. Then, we move into macro updates, discussing the CPI, the Fed's next steps, GDPNow forecasts, and regulatory shifts—including growing support for The BITCOIN Act.Onchain, we highlight Solana's five-year milestone, including some protocol highlights, and the latest in tokenized real-world assets. Finally, we wrap up with key catalysts to watch.We also celebrate four years of Coinbase Prime, our best-in-class platform that thousands of institutional clients use to trade, stake, finance, and custody crypto at scale. Coinbase also launched Coinbase for Governments to help bring them onchain.Topics Covered:Market Trends: ETF outflows, AI & memecoin sector moves, and BTC/ETH key levels.Macro & Regulation: Fed policy outlook, GDPNow, and crypto legislation updates.Onchain Insights: Solana's five-year growth, ETH-based RWA inflows, and major protocol updates.Upcoming Catalysts: Key economic events, protocol launches, and Nvidia's GTC conference.Host: Ben Floyd, Head of Execution ServicesSpeakers: David Duong, Head of Institutional Research Joshua Pak, Senior CES Sales TraderLinks:Coinbase Institutional ResearchCoinbase for GovernmentsLatest Coinbase Advertisement

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news it's a big day of data locally with our Q4-2024 GDP result out later this morning, preceded by the Fonterra half year result. Either may have market-moving implications.But a few minutes ago, the US Fed released its latest monetary policy review and projections, the dot plot indications and forecasts, which suggest they see higher inflation in the year ahead (now 2.7% from 2.5% and a smaller economic expansion (1.7% from 2.1%). They also expect a higher jobless rate.They see two rate cuts this year. Nine of the 19 policymakers expect it to be in the 3.75%-4.00% range by the end of 2025.But at this meeting there was no policy rate change.In contrast, the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking suggests the US economy is now contracting at a -1.8% rate. Apart from the pandemic period, that would be their worst since the GFC.After two strong weeks of mortgage application growth, but mostly driven by refinance activity, last week there was a pull back with volumes falling -6.2%. But with the rise in US benchmark interest rates, and the consequent rise in the 30 year home loan rates (their first rise in nine weeks), perhaps this isn't much of a surprise. Still, overall activity is now +6% higher than year-ago levels.Tariffs and tariff threats are raising prices for basic commodities. For example, American steel is up +27% just from February 7, 2025. There is no way that won't have an inflationary impact there. Thinks cars. Interestingly with international steel diverted, these costs will be lower elsewhere, so the core competitiveness of American-made products are probably going to weaken noticeably. Chinese steel prices are back to where they were in 2017.Across the Pacific, Japanese exports rose +11.7% in February from the same month a year ago and this was the second best rise since December 2022 and much better than the +7.8% rise in February 2024. Still it wasn't quite as strong as expected.Japanese machinery orders rose +19.8% in January from the same month a year ago (up to ¥3.27 bln from ¥2.73 bln in January 2024.)The Bank of Japan kept its key short-term interest rate at around 0.5% during its March meeting, maintaining it at its highest level since 2008 and in line with market expectations. It was a unanimous decision and a cautious stance, focusing on assessing the impact of rising global economic risks on Japan's fragile recovery. They noted ongoing uncertainties in the domestic economic outlook, including trade policies and global conditions.The central bank of Indonesia held its benchmark interest rate at 5.75% during its March 2025 meeting, as expected. They have had only one -25 bps rate cut in 2025 which took their policy rate back to where it was for most of 2023. Recently their inflation rate fell to only +0.8%. And there was a sell-off on their stock exchange earlier in the week. So this 'hold' may be their last. The financial instability in Indonesia is a bit of a worry, especially for its neighbour, Australia.In Turkey, their autocratic president is feeling increasingly vulnerable. He has moved against his main rival with trumped-up charges and the instability has caused the Turkish currency to dive - again. Inflation is running at 39% still but it is falling. And their central bank keeps cutting their policy rate, now down to 42.5%.The World Meteorological Organisation's latest report, for 2024, is a sobering read. New Zealand may be situated in a climate sweet-spot but that isn't the case for almost all our trading partners. CO2 levels in the planet's atmosphere are now at an 800,000 year high. The future won't be like the past. The main way it will hit our pockets is through insurance costs.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.28%, up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.The price of gold will start today at just on US$3034/oz and down a net -US$2 from yesterday.Oil prices are up +50 USc from yesterday at just on US$67.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just over US$71/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.9 USc and down -30 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are unchanged at 91.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also unchanged at 53.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 67.2, and -10 bps softer.The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,613 and up +3.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been moderate at +/- 2.1%.Join us for the Q4-2024 GDP result at 10:45 am this morning. And before that, we will have the Fonterra half year update.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news China's inability to get out of its rut, and the fast-fading of the American exuberance are the dominating global economic scene-setters.And this week it will be all about by the US Fed and its Thursday monetary policy review. They face the prospects of higher inflation in the immediate plannable future from the costs of the new tariffs, an expansion that is faltering fast, and probably a wave of job losses. How they assess those conflicts will be keenly followed by financial markets, even if no rate change is expected.New inflation pressures are also hitting Canada, and they will release CPI data this week, along with retail sales data.And many other countries will have monetary policy reviews this coming week, including Japan, China, Sweden, Switzerland and the English. Japan will also release inflation data.And China is about to release retail sales and industrial production data later today along with a look at February house prices.Over the weekend in China, after the spectacular rise in January loan growth, reported their February levels came in quite low, showing the policy-induced surge could not be maintained. There were only ¥1.01 tln in new loans extended in the month, far below the ¥5.03 tln January level and back to levels it bounced along at for most 2024 months. The February 2024 level was ¥1.45 tln, so this 2025 result is a definite sag since then.New official energy is going into boosting consumer demand by tackling consumers property losses, that haven't responded so far to prior efforts, and to 'stabilise' their stock markets.And their foreign direct investment data out for February was very weak again, only ¥114 bln in February, -20.4% lower than the already low ¥143.4 bln in the same month of 2024. And this is off the back of a 2024 which was their lowest FDI inflows in eleven years. For perspective in February 2022 they attracted ¥220 bln in foreign investment, so this 2025 level is about half of that.Across the Pacific, the widely anticipated American March survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan was out and it fell much more than expected. In fact it recorded its lowest level since November 2022. It is now down -27% from a year ago.One key reason Americans are so glum (apart from the chaos of policy gyrations), they fear a sharp return of inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations jumped up from 4.3% in February, already a high level, to 4.9% this month, also the highest reading since November 2022 and marking three consecutive months of unusually large increases. Their new long term inflation expectations of 3.9% have now hit a 32 year high.There is probably much more to come. The US price of timber is already rising and now at its highest level two years. Industrial commodities like tin are also tracking much higher. We have previously noted the cost of eggs which even after a recent pullback are still almost double what they were a year ago. There will elevated interest in the AtlantaFed's GDPNow tracking when it is updated tomorrow.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.32%, up +1 bp from Saturday at this time. The price of gold will start today at just on US$2985/oz and up another net +US$2 from Saturday. Over the weekend it briefly spiked to US$3000 but then retraced sharply before settling at the current level.Oil prices are little-changed from Saturday at just over US$67/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is at just on US$70.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is now at 57.5 USc and unchanged from Saturday. Against the Aussie however we are also unchanged at 90.9 AUc. Against the euro we are holding as well at at 52.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just under 66.8, and also virtually unchanged.The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,632 and down -0.7% from this time Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/- 1.5%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here. Content Highlights The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51); Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24); Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23); Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14); Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03); The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23). More on the Guest Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com; Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

In this episode we chat about the latest US Jobs report, unemployment, the Beige Book, and the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast.

1:09 關稅人川普，加墨關稅「又」變了 3:59 台積電1000億投資，早說跟INTEL不扯上關係(就是好棋) 8:15 美元指數暴跌多殺多，經濟衰退情緒甚囂塵上 10:00 輿論的起源: 2/28 GDPNow(經濟預測)暴跌跳水翻負! 11:45 GDPNow的介紹，主要用途是改善更新頻率(1季21次) 14:36 2/28是大更新，納入一堆數據(包含NIPA國民經濟) 16:30 回歸GDP本質，從組成推測主因，應該是入超 19:32 美國貿易帳赤字前2個月暴增，統計模型預測放大效果 21:32 答案早已公布，因應潛在關稅，美國廠商提前拉貨 24:47 關稅提前拉貨，美國貿易帳Q2必然會緩和 26:02 C+I+G才是重點且有延續性，認為25Q1 GDP過度擔憂 27:34 關稅若持續實施，經濟衰退當然有可能，遞延反應在Q3 29:56 經濟衰退短期過度擔憂，中期至Q3並非不可能 31:50 股市本波集中跌大型股，衝刺指數的殺盤 35:10 反彈看急彈，非金電股、跌深AI股是短波段機會 相關文章與圖表連結: https://www.big-econ.com/index.php?sec=article&ID=3920 -- Hosting provided by SoundOn

Kevin covers the coverage of the President's speech; MSNBC discovers the Consumer Price Index.  ADP reported private sector job creation, Kevin has the details and offers his insights. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its GDPNow tracker, Kevin discusses the report. Oil reacts to an unexpected rise in crude oil inventories, Canada and China retaliates against U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ plans to increase output in April; the benchmarks hit price levels not seen since December 2021 and May 2023.

Kevin covers the coverage of the President's speech; MSNBC discovers the Consumer Price Index.  ADP reported private sector job creation, Kevin has the details and offers his insights. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta released its GDPNow tracker, Kevin discusses the report. Oil reacts to an unexpected rise in crude oil inventories, Canada and China retaliates against U.S. tariffs, OPEC+ plans to increase output in April; the benchmarks hit price levels not seen since December 2021 and May 2023.

Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links-Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.US Corn and Soybean Futures Drop Amid Trade Tensions

Ottawa anunció que impondrá medidas de retorsión simultaneas a las tasas de EE.UU. por un valor superior a los 100.000 millones de dólares. En México, la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum advierte que la respuesta será arancelaria y no arancelaria. La guerra comercial lanzada  por Washington contra China, México y Canadá pasó de la retórica a lo concreto con la entrada en vigor de los impuestos este martes, un alza de 25% sobre las importaciones, que fueron seguidas de contraofensivas.La respuesta del primer ministro canadiense Justin Trudeau fue aumentar los impuestos a los productos importados de Estados Unidos del 25% sobre 155.000 millones de dólares en bienes estadounidenses. Esa represalia es contundente y también nacional, según Cristian Bravo, profesor de investigación económica y financiera de la Universidad de Ontario Occidental: “aquí tenemos provincias y las provincias tienen mucha autonomía, entonces la respuesta es tanto federal con las tarifas como provincial, con acciones directas, como sacar productos norteamericanos estadounidenses de los escaparates, por ejemplo, el alcohol”.Bravo explica que “existe una disposición política interna para responder con bastante fuerza a este evento de las tarifas que no ayudan a nadie, porque lo que hacen es eliminar ingresos que podrían estimular la economía y que ahora van a ser capturados por las tarifas”.Varias provincias canadienses como la de Ontario, retiraron de la venta productos alcohólicos estadounidenses.De acuerdo a Bravo, otros productos que van a tener un impacto inmediato: “por ejemplo el jugo de naranja que se hace en Florida, insumos terminados, automóviles, todos aquellos productos de consumidor final que tienen sustitutos en Canadá” aseguró, agregando que es posible que se importen productos de otras partes para escapar a los aranceles, “por ejemplo directamente de Europa, sin pasar por Estados Unidos”.Los mercados bursátiles, sobre todo en Estados Unidos, acusan desde hace días el impacto de estas medidas proteccionistas con aranceles considerados como los más altos desde los años 40.En una Guerra comercial nadie gana, señala Cristian Bravo: “Esto se mantiene por una cantidad de varios meses. Ambos países, Canadá, México e incluso Estados Unidos mismo vamos a estar en recesión. La Reserva Federal de Atlanta tiene un indicador que se llama el GDPNOW, - que se refiere a- cómo están proyectando hoy el crecimiento dada la circunstancia y la actividad económica. Hoy día Estados Unidos está en menos 2,8%, ya está en una recesión, nosotros estamos esperando una recesión entorno al 2,5%. Si esto se mantiene por todo el 2025, va a a significar recesión en todo Norteamérica, si es que no todo El Mundo si esto se expande a Europa y se expande a otro lugar.Pekín también impactada por la guerra arancelaria de Donald Trump ha anunciado que impondrá gravámenes suplementarios del 10% y el 15% a varias importaciones alimentarias de Estados Unidos como la soja, el trigo o el pollo.

Ottawa anunció que impondrá medidas de retorsión simultaneas a las tasas de EE.UU. por un valor superior a los 100.000 millones de dólares. En México, la presidenta Claudia Sheinbaum advierte que la respuesta será arancelaria y no arancelaria. La guerra comercial lanzada  por Washington contra China, México y Canadá pasó de la retórica a lo concreto con la entrada en vigor de los impuestos este martes, un alza de 25% sobre las importaciones, que fueron seguidas de contraofensivas.La respuesta del primer ministro canadiense Justin Trudeau fue aumentar los impuestos a los productos importados de Estados Unidos del 25% sobre 155.000 millones de dólares en bienes estadounidenses. Esa represalia es contundente y también nacional, según Cristian Bravo, profesor de investigación económica y financiera de la Universidad de Ontario Occidental: “aquí tenemos provincias y las provincias tienen mucha autonomía, entonces la respuesta es tanto federal con las tarifas como provincial, con acciones directas, como sacar productos norteamericanos estadounidenses de los escaparates, por ejemplo, el alcohol”.Bravo explica que “existe una disposición política interna para responder con bastante fuerza a este evento de las tarifas que no ayudan a nadie, porque lo que hacen es eliminar ingresos que podrían estimular la economía y que ahora van a ser capturados por las tarifas”.Varias provincias canadienses como la de Ontario, retiraron de la venta productos alcohólicos estadounidenses.De acuerdo a Bravo, otros productos que van a tener un impacto inmediato: “por ejemplo el jugo de naranja que se hace en Florida, insumos terminados, automóviles, todos aquellos productos de consumidor final que tienen sustitutos en Canadá” aseguró, agregando que es posible que se importen productos de otras partes para escapar a los aranceles, “por ejemplo directamente de Europa, sin pasar por Estados Unidos”.Los mercados bursátiles, sobre todo en Estados Unidos, acusan desde hace días el impacto de estas medidas proteccionistas con aranceles considerados como los más altos desde los años 40.En una Guerra comercial nadie gana, señala Cristian Bravo: “Esto se mantiene por una cantidad de varios meses. Ambos países, Canadá, México e incluso Estados Unidos mismo vamos a estar en recesión. La Reserva Federal de Atlanta tiene un indicador que se llama el GDPNOW, - que se refiere a- cómo están proyectando hoy el crecimiento dada la circunstancia y la actividad económica. Hoy día Estados Unidos está en menos 2,8%, ya está en una recesión, nosotros estamos esperando una recesión entorno al 2,5%. Si esto se mantiene por todo el 2025, va a a significar recesión en todo Norteamérica, si es que no todo El Mundo si esto se expande a Europa y se expande a otro lugar.Pekín también impactada por la guerra arancelaria de Donald Trump ha anunciado que impondrá gravámenes suplementarios del 10% y el 15% a varias importaciones alimentarias de Estados Unidos como la soja, el trigo o el pollo.

The Daily Business and Finance Show - Tuesday, 4 March 2025 We get our business and finance news from Seeking Alpha and you should too! Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium for more in-depth market news and help support this podcast. Free for 14-days! Please click here for more info: Subscribe to Seeking Alpha Premium News Today's headlines: Nasdaq plunges more than 2%; S&P, Dow also drop as fears over Trump's tariff plans sink in Atlanta Fed's GDPnow model sees Q1 GDP deeper in the red after ISM release Taiwan Semi Chairman, CEO Wei to appear at White House for announcement Avoiding the Magnificent 7 and the Nasdaq-100 are still key to returns in 2025 Oil slides to three-month low as OPEC brings production cuts back online starting April 1 Bitcoin's back to where it started after strategic reserve spike Investors may be riding a ‘bucking bronco' stock market into April Celestica files for automatic mixed securities shelf Palantir could see more deals, IT dollars from Washington: Wedbush Explanations from OpenAI ChatGPT API with proprietary prompts. This podcast provides information only and should not be construed as financial or business advice. This podcast is produced by Klassic Studios Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

US equities finished sharply lower in Monday trading, with the Dow Jones, S&P500, and Nasdaq closing down 175bps, 204bps, and 295bps respectively. Risk off day amid the latest bout of Trump 2.0 policy uncertainty, with trade the overhang as tariffs on Canada and Mexico go into effect tomorrow. Headline ISM manufacturing remained in expansion in February but a bit weaker than expected. Construction spending in January unexpectedly declined. Atlanta Fed's latest GDPNow update fell deeper into contraction territory at -2.8%. Nvidia extended its post-earnings selloff with some focus on concerns about harsher export restrictions.

En el episodio de hoy de VG Daily, Andre Dos Santos y Eugenio Garibay analizan los eventos más impactantes del fin de semana que han sacudido la política internacional, los mercados financieros y las perspectivas económicas globales. Comienzan desglosando el tenso enfrentamiento entre Donald Trump y Volodymyr Zelensky en el Despacho Oval, un choque que no solo ha tensado las relaciones entre Estados Unidos y Ucrania, sino que también ha llevado a Zelensky a buscar apoyo militar en Europa. Además, discuten cómo este incidente ha impulsado el valor de acciones de defensa europeas y qué significa para el futuro del conflicto en Ucrania.Siguiendo con Trump, exploran su sorpresivo anuncio sobre la creación de una "Reserva Estratégica de Criptomonedas", un movimiento que revitalizó los mercados de Bitcoin y otras criptomonedas, generando un optimismo inesperado en el sector. Finalmente, abordan las alarmantes proyecciones del indicador GDPNow, que apunta a un posible trimestre negativo para la economía estadounidense. Andre y Eugenio ofrecen su análisis sobre por qué estas cifras podrían ser solo "ruido" estadístico y no una señal definitiva de recesión. Un episodio cargado de análisis profundo, datos clave y perspectivas únicas.

Segment 1: Ilyce Glink, owner of Think Glink Media and Best Money Moves, joins John Williams to talk about The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker of incoming data indicating that gross domestic product is on pace to shrink by 1.5% for the first quarter, and what she expects to see in this week’s labor report and what we are likely to […]

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news chaos has consequences, but they seem to be coming faster than many thought. The giant US economy is resilient, but not immune to the consequences of misguided policy decisions.Regular readers will know we regularly track the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow signals. Today that has suddenly sifted from expecting a +3.0% Q1-2025 expansion with the data on hand at the start of February, to a sharp -2.8% contraction as the latest data comes in for the US economy.We have been noting the slide in the granular data over the past week or so in these reports. Today there was another from the ISM PMI for February. Specifically, new orders in their factory sector took a sharp turn into contraction as they report demand is weakening fast. The overall PMI rose in this report, but due to production and inventories. Shrinking new order levels are not going to sustained that however.It was a different story for the internationally benchmarked S&P/Markit US factory PMI which is still reporting an expansion, and a good one. But this one isn't supported by the wider series of data over the past few weeks of weak new order levels (other than for aircraft) and rising inventories. Nor the imbalance between household spending and disposable incomes. The Atlanta Fed is signaling these are turning the US growth into reverse.We won't actually know for some weeks yet of course, but it seems the Biden prosperity is being turned into a Trump/Musk contraction.And more uncertainty is on the way. Congress has less than two weeks to extend a federal funding deadline, but lawmakers are arguing over whether the Whitehouse will really spend the money they approve.The February Canadian PMI turned suddenly negative too in response to the tariff war outlook. Later today, the US is expected to impose the threatened tariffs, even though they earlier promised to delay them to the start of April. Consistency and promises are loose ideas in today's Whitehouse.There were a wide set of early factory PMIs for a number of Asian economies and they all showed very little change (and only minor variations around the expansion/contraction fulcrum). This includes reports for Japan (49.0), Malaysia (49.7), Thailand (50.6), Vietnam (49.2) and Taiwan (51.5). The tariff war impact are yet to hit. In fact, Indonesia was a bit of an outlier, recording a very good rise (53.6), but it enabled the overall ASEAN group to record a good rise.India's PMI's signaled a mild slowdown from their fast expansion rate.Singapore's SIPMM PMI recorded a minor expansion in February.The official China factory PMI came in at 50.2, an improvement for February from January's contraction. This was backed up by the independent Caixin factory PMI which came in with a slightly faster expansion (50.8) in its survey. This is consistent with the US import data for January and suggests the US import data will be very high again in February.In Europe, their inflation rate eased to 2.4% in February, down from a six-month high of 2.5% in January but slightly above market expectations of 2.3%. But there is a wide range, from 1.4% in democratic Denmark to 5.7% in autocratic Hungary. For the EU overall it was running at 2.8%, for the euro area 2.4%.Europe's overall PMI is still contracting, but the drivers of their contraction eased somewhat in February.In something of a surprise, the TD-Melbourne Institute tracking of inflation and cost of living in Australia reported a -0.2% drop in February from the prior month, after a +0.1% rise in January. Most thought a rise was on the cards. But on an annual basis inflation is still running in the 2-3% range.Also turning negative in February from January was the job ad series from ANZ/Indeed. It was down -1.4% from January, but at lease it wasn't down the -6.9% it was in February 2023 from January 2024.CoreLogic is reporting that the Aussie housing market stabilised in February, with small but consistent house price rises in the month in almost all main centers, rolling back some of the quarterly and annual falls in some of their larger cities. The one RBA rate cut is getting the credit for the sentiment improvement.By the way, it seems the expectation for an Australian election is narrowing to an early even, maybe on April 12In the face of US mis-steps, policy markers from Canada to China are readying plans for a global downturn. And high on their agendas are looser fiscal and monetary policies to insulate their people from the worst effects. The US is also moving to much looser fiscal policies with large tax cuts for the wealthy, and likely ballooning deficits. We are entering the era of huge distortions, and it is unlikely to be pretty.Today the UST 10yr yield is at 4.18%, down -2 bps from yesterday.The price of gold will start today at just under US$2892/oz and up +US$35 from yesterday.Oil prices are down -50 USc just on US$69.50/bbl in the US and the international Brent price is just over US$72.50/bbl. Both prices are -US$1 lower than a week ago. Lower expected demand is why this price is soft.The Kiwi dollar is now at 56.3 USc and up +40 bps from yesterday as the USD comes under pressure. Against the Aussie however we are still little-changed at 90.2 AUc. Against the euro we are down -30 bps at 53.6 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 66.2, essentially unchanged from yesterday.The bitcoin price started today at US$90,059 and down a net +1.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has remained high at +/- 3.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Tuesday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news the market pressure on US benchmark interest rates is easing now.First, an updated Dallas Fed survey showed the Texan manufacturing sector contracted less in November, the least in 2½ years. This was driven by the outlook mood which improved sharply, post election. But this may just be a partisan hope. New order levels actually fell to their worst shrinkage in a year, and continuing a two year trend of shrinkage in this oil-patch region.And the broader Chicago Fed National Activity Index decreased in October from September to its lowest in nine months in a surprise result that was much worse than market forecasts. This index suggested US economic growth decreased. Current forecasts are that the US economy is growing at just under +2%, although the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model has it at +2.6%. Anywhere else that sort of expansion would be considered very good for a developed economy.There was another large US Treasury bond auction this morning, again very well supported. The yield was 4.24% at this event, and higher than the 4.07% median yield at the prior equivalent event a month ago - but not the sort of rise we have seen recently in other maturities.Singapore's inflation rate eased to 1.4% year-on-year in October from 2% in the previous month, and below market expectations of 1.8% gain. This marked the lowest inflation rate since March 2021, as prices moderated for housing and utilities.Taiwanese retail stopped expanding in October after a long run of expansion that started in August 2021.But Taiwanese industrial production is still growing at a healthy rate, although that rate of growth is slowing. It was up +8.5% in October from a year ago, down from an +11% rise in the year to September. A year ago in October 2023 it was falling +2.3%, so they have come a long way since then.In China, their central bank injected ¥900 bln into financial institutions via a one-year medium-term lending facility yesterday at an unchanged rate of 2.0%. That compared with the ¥1.45 tln of MLF loans due this month, marking a net cash withdrawal of ¥550 bln.After the March to August rises, the German IFO sentiment survey returned to its lows for other than the GFC or the pandemic. Analysts see a fading of strength in an economy that was only recently an engine of Europe. And overnight, ThyssenKrupp, the largest steel maker in Germany, said it would cut its workforce by up to 11,000 from the current 98,000, by 2030.The UST 10yr yield is now at just on 4.29% and down -12 bps from this time yesterday.The price of gold will start today at US$2631/oz and down -US$85 from this time yesterday.Oil prices are down -US$2 at just over US$69/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is just over US$73/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today at 58.4 USc and up a minor +10 bps from this time yesterday. Against the Aussie we are +20 bps higher at 89.9 AUc. Against the euro we down -20 bps at 55.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 68.2, down -10 bps from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$95,648 and down -1.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on tomorrow.

This is a narration of our weekly Rent and Operating Trends Report.Retail Sales Stronger than Expected, AgainConsumer spending outpaced expectations in September, and August's better-than-expected results were unrevised. Retail sales were up 0.4% from the prior month and 1.7% from a year ago. Discretionary spending at restaurants, drinking establishments, and clothing stores helped boost the number. It is yet to be seen if strong sales will continue through the holiday season. While spending is up, consumer sentiment remains sluggish even though the Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported strong wage growth and more moderate inflation.  Strong GDP Estimates for Q3 2024The Atlanta Fed's latest estimate for Q3 GDP growth is 3.4%. The organization's model, GDPNow, had it as low as 2% in August, but recent economic reports gave it a boost during the last two months. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its advance estimate of GDP on October 30.There is growing sentiment that continued strength in the economy could lead to a more moderate interest rate cut of 25 basis points by the end of the year.  Permitting for Multifamily Housing Yet to See an UptickFor the 12 months ending September 2024, total housing permits were down 2.9% from the prior month and down 5.7% from a year ago on a seasonally adjusted basis. Permitting for multifamily units continued to be the main driver of the decline. The industry had 398,000 units permitted in the last year, down 17.4% on an annual basis. The latest multifamily permitting level is down significantly from the construction boom period a couple of years ago when it eclipsed more than 700,000 units permitted within a 12-month period, but it is also down from the period immediately before the pandemic. From 2015-2019, the industry's annual permitting level averaged 442,000 units. Normal, or even muted, levels of supply are on the way the next couple of years which should help operational metrics rebalance after a period of significant challenges. Multifamily HighlightsTraffic and occupancy continued to tick down in the latest week's results. The trend can mostly be attributed to seasonality, but the rates themselves are weaker than in other comparable periods.Headed into 2024, Radix forecasts indicated occupancy would average at lower rate than the prior year due to elevated supply and slowing job growth. That prediction has come to fruition, but results are expected to rebound in 2025 as supply slows significantly in many markets. Effective rents were stable from the previous week. If occupancy improves in 2025, concessions should moderate. As of the latest week, roughly half of markets had lower effective rents compared to the prior year.Explore our webpage for more insights and resources:https://bit.ly/Radix_Website 

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is followed closely by financial market participants as an estimate for economic growth. Rather than looking at a long-term horizon, the model focuses only on the current quarter and updates its estimate after important monthly data reports, giving a real-time ability to check the pulse of the economy instead of waiting for each quarterly GDP release. In this episode, we talk with Patrick Higgins, Economist with the Atlanta Federal Reserve and creator of the GDPNow model, about how the model differs from other forecasts, its track record against the official GDP data, and the challenges of forecasting throughout the pandemic.

Ouça o que movimentou o mercado nesta terça-feira.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news the ECB is warning investors aren't taking geopolitical risks into account nearly enough.But first in China, we are getting reports that Beijing is developing a plan to save their housing markets and SOE developers by having the state buy huge numbers of unsold properties to boost demand. It is a sign of desperation. What wouldn't go wrong? Millions of properties partly occupied are surely likely to give an enhanced sense of rot in the sector, while enriching the developers. The future for such a policy looks bleak indeed.Under the proposal, local state-owned enterprises would be asked to help purchase inventory from distressed developers at steep discounts using loans provided by state banks, Bloomberg reported on yesterday. Hong Kong shares of developers who will benefit from the "market clearing" zoomed again yesterday.In the US, housing starts rose in April from March but are still lower than year-ago levels, and that year-ago standard is not high. Previously we have seen stronger residential building consent levels but they are falling on a prior month- and prior year-basis too. The new home construction sector is falling back into line with the general real estate resale market with tepid demand at best.But that weakness is not reflected in their labour market. The actual number of jobless claims fell last week to 197,000 which was a slightly smaller fall than expected. It is interesting how expectations for rising labour pressure seemed to have turned around.And the real state of retailing in the US can be tracked by the activity of their largest retailers - and the largest is Walmart. They said Q1-2024 sales levels were strong, growing far more than inflation.Most serious analysts see the US economy expanding by +2% in 2024. But the AtlantaFed's GDPNow model reckons it is expanding nearly twice as fast as that, currently running at a 3.6% expansion, real.In one region, the US Philly Fed factory survey turned from a minor positive to a minor negative in May, basically because of a pullback in new orders. But also intriguing is the holding high of survey perceptions of business conditions. They seem confident about the future, very confident.Industrial production in the US was little changed in April, taking seven of the past twelve months as expansions, five as contractions. But most of the expansions, as small as they have been, are in the more recent half. And that has eaten into the year-on-year deficit, so it is now only -0.4%.In its latest Financial Stability Review, the ECB says investors are likely to be jolted by negative election surprises in 2024 that will weigh on financial stability. They reckon investors are blind to the sudden shifts in sentiment that geopolitical tensions can drive. And the extra spending they are having to do on the security from is likely to put future strain on European public finances they noted.In Australia, the April labour force data saw the jobless rate rise to 4.1% from 3.9% in March. (NZ was 4.3% in March.) That means 593,000 of their 14.9 mln labour force are without work. Full-time employment fell by -6100, part-time employment rose by +44,600. It was tougher in NSW where full-time employment fell -16,300 and part-time employment only rose +13,100.We have previously noted that financial markets had started pricing in a chance of interest rate rises from the RBA. A lowish chance, admittedly. But now we can note that they seem to have abandoned those bets - even though the consensus seem to be that the short-term Aussie Budget won't be especially inflation-friendly.More globally, the copper price has breached US$11,000 and an all-time high and now we are into the crazy world where short sellers are being squeezed, and having to buy their way out of the frenzy which bids up the price further.You may recall we reported a sharp rise in bulk cargo freight rates last week. Well, it was temporary and they have now fallen back to the prior week's level now. But containerised cargo rates are still rising as fast as they did last week, up another +11% this week and are now double year-ago levels. All this is driven by outbound-from-China rates roiled by the persistent Canal and security problems.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.38% and up +2 bps from this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today down -US$10 from yesterday at US$2379/oz.Oil prices are up +US$1 today to just under US$79/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is up +50 USc, now just on US$83/bbl.The Kiwi dollar starts today with a slight easing from yesterday at just on 61.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up at 91.6 AUc and a new one month high. Against the euro we are unchanged at 56.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 70.2 and little-changed from yesterday.The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,946 down a very minor -0.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.6%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again on Monday.

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4dd0xsl Economic Front The big economic news last week was the 1.6% annualized real GDP growth for Q1 when +2.5% had been expected. The 3.4% of Q4 (again, all these numbers are annualized, which is just how they get discussed) was not going to repeat itself, but 1.6% vs. 2.5% projected and 2.7% in the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model was a big step down. The positive side is that manufacturing appears to be picking up, New Orders are on the rise, and low inventories now mean more manufacturing later. Net exports were the biggest drag (-0.9%), and, as is almost always the case, consumption was the largest contributor (+1.7%). Capex contributed just +0.4%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up +2.7% year-over-year last month, matching expectations. Personal Income rose +0.5% in March, in line with expectations. 54% of people worked at firms with less than 500 employees in 1980. That number is just over 46% now. The fertility rate in the U.S. dropped to 1.62 last year, the lowest on record. Our fertility rate has been below the 2.1 replacement level for 17 years now. Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the international edition from Interest.co.nz.And today we lead with news our meat exports to China face tough conditions, and not just from competition from excess Aussie lamb supply.But first, US mortgage applications rose +3.3% last week even as benchmark mortgage interest rates rose to 7.13% plus points and a four month high. (A month ago it was at 6.84%.) But to be fair, the recent shift higher in application levels is still -10% lower than the same weak week a year ago,so last week's rise is hardly significant.Today's UST 20yr bond auction was another success with the usual excess demand. But just like the mortgage market, the median yield rose again to 4.77%, up from the prior equivalent event a month ago at 4.50%. It seems investors are prepared to accept a lesser rise than they want from home loan rates.Despite these rising interest rate levels, the Fed's Beige Book survey paints a picture of a moderate and broad expansion in recent activity in the country, consistent with other recent data. They said overall economic activity expanded slightly since late February. Ten out of twelve Districts experienced either slight or modest economic growth, up from eight in the previous report, while the other two reported no changes in activity. They still found an expanding labour market, and the economic outlook among contacts was cautiously optimistic, they reported.While most blue-chip professional economists think the US economy is expanding at about a +2% rate, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model ingesting current rate thinks it is much faster than that, near +3%. It is an expansion that is driving the global economy, including that of its rivals like China.And Japan, which is on a roll, despite their currency issue angst (in USD terms). Their exports rose by +7.3% in March, following a +7.8% rise in February. It was the fourth straight month of increase for them.In China, meat prices - especially pork prices - are in an extended slump. Pork accounts for almost two thirds of Chinese meat sales and you will recall prices hit a peak in October 2022. But it has been all downhill since, dropping -40% and putting producers at increased bankruptcy risk. It is a crisis that has national attention, even international attention because feed grain imports are falling. Soybean prices are down -23% from a year ago. It is tough for beef and sheepmeats to compete with pork in China at present.The British released their March inflation rate overnight and it eased to 3.2% from 3.4% in February. But remained slightly above the market expectation of 3.1%. It was their lowest rate since September 2021, primarily driven by a slowdown in food prices.The UST 10yr yield is now at 4.59% and down -7 bps from yesterday. The price of gold will start today lower by -US$22 from this time yesterday at US$2372/oz.Despite continuing Middle East tensions and uncertainties, oil prices have dropped a sharpish -US$2.50 to just on US$82.50/bbl in the US while the international Brent price is down at US$87/bbl. Rising US crude stocks as their economy gains energy efficiency is behind the shift lower for oil.The Kiwi dollar starts today at just over 59.1 USc and back up +30 bps from yesterday. Against the Aussie we are firmish at 91.9 AUc. Against the euro we are also firmish at 55.5 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today just on 69 and back up +20 bps.The bitcoin price starts today lower at US$61,348 and down -1.6% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been very high at just under +/- 4.0%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.You can get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. And we will do this again tomorrow.

The S&P 500 is back to an all-time high and the NASDAQ is a hairs'-breadth away from the same. Stocks have started 2024 strong and appear now to be in a positive-feedback loop, where higher prices entice more buyers, leading to still higher prices. Multiple expansion is underway and stocks are remain quite overbought in the short-term. How much longer can the melt-up last for? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and Adam Taggart discuss this, as well as the ramifications of this week's FOMC release and press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, the new (and hard-to-believe) payrolls data, and the revision higher in Q1 GDP forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow service. And, as usual, Lance shares the trades his firm made this week. Here's the link to the 1970's news coverage Adam mentions in his beached whale story: https://youtu.be/V6CLumsir34?si=k-GiiDds3Rdjbpvc WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #federalreserve #jobsreport #bullmarket

US Representative David Schweikert on the new Speaker of the House and the trends in GDP. Atlanta Fed has an app GDPNow for you closet economists, check out atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow Democrats love violence. Remember these special moments when they contort anything you say into a threat of violence. Road safety. Teens and tweeners to Hollywood: enough with the sex on telly and screen

In this episode of the CRE Exchange, Cole Perry, Senior Market Analyst at Altus Group, and Omar Eltorai, Director of Research at Altus Group, delve into the latest economic indicators and their implications for the commercial real estate market.We discuss:- [00:00:29] The current state of the CRE market and the macroeconomic scene.- [00:00:51] The significant rise in the Atlanta Fed's GDP forecast and insights from the Fed minutes.- [00:02:34] Concerns about potential inflation and the market's reaction to the FOMC minutes.- [00:04:22] The impact of rising interest rates on CRE transactions and the challenges in determining property values.- [00:08:33] Key takeaways from recent retail earnings and the shift in consumer behavior toward discount stores.- [00:11:35] The potential downstream effects of retail trends on the industrial sector and the role of e-commerce.- [00:16:40] What to watch out for in the coming week, including Powell's speech from Jackson Hole.Resources mentioned:Cole Perry -https://www.linkedin.com/in/coleperry1/Omar Eltorai -https://www.linkedin.com/in/omareltorai/Altus Group -https://www.linkedin.com/company/altus-group/GDPNow -https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnowCME FedWatch Tool -https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html Thanks for listening to the CRE Exchange podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

Maps Credit Union COO Rachel Pross shares business takeaways from a recent outdoor adventure that veered off script. Also, a big 2019 payments deal gets unwound, and Glen rants about recession.   Links related to this episode:   Rachel's article on the business lessons of her ill-fated mountain trek: https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7029157770209746944/  Maps Credit Union: https://mapscu.com/  Payment Dive's coverage of FIS's Worldpay spinoff: https://www.paymentsdive.com/news/fis-spin-off-merchant-unit-worldpay-earnings-acquisitions-mergers/642594/  Anne Legg's “Big Data, Big Climb”: https://www.anneleggthrive.com/buy-the-book  The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow    BIG's Innovation Club convenes thought leaders across the credit union movement several times each year, engaging in educational and innovative projects leveraging new technology- from robotic process automation to distributed ledger, conversational banking, machine learning and more- to address the most pressing issues facing the financial services industry. Visit https://www.big-fintech.com/Innovation-Club/Technology to learn more, find out about our March in-person retreat, and consider whether your organization may be a fit.  Follow the Best Innovation Group on Twitter: @bigfintech Follow Glen on Twitter @154Advisors Follow John on Twitter @jbfintech

U.S. retail sales were up more than expected in October, posting the biggest month-over-month gain since February, but equity indexes struggled after Target posted disappointing third-quarter results and warned of a soft fourth quarter too. The yield on the 10-year Treasury yield declined, though the two-year/10-year curve inversion deepened on expectations the Federal Reserve will maintain a hawkish monetary course. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool currently shows 4.4% fourth-quarter growth. Marc Chandler, the managing director of Bannockburn Global Forex would take issue with that forecast: “The US economy is expected to struggle under the weight of past monetary tightening,” he notes, “and what we do not appreciate is the extent of fiscal tightening.” Marc joins Maggie Lake to talk about the big picture, how it's reflected in currency pairs and global yields, what we should expect from the Federal Reserve, and why we should be skeptical of China. We also hear from Roger Hirst about the broader implications of a dollar pull-back. Watch the full Insider Talks episode featuring Roger Hirst here: rvtv.io/3AiGXJi. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Atlanta Fed Economist Patrick Higgins talks to MNI about the regional bank's closely watched GDPNow measure, which he said is unlikely to show a recession any time soon. 

The pandemic's impact on the economy significantly complicated how we measure gross domestic product. Pat Higgins, an Atlanta Fed economist, joins the Economy Matters podcast to discuss the GDPNow tool and recent developments in gross domestic product.

Equity markets held their ground on Tuesday despite renewed signals of economic contraction. The flash reading for both the Services and Manufacturing sector PMIs came in below expectation and with the services sector deep in contractionary territory. The reading of 44 is the fifth month of decline and the lowest reading since May of 2020 at the height of the pandemic lockdowns. The news may be a one-off but is compounded by a trend in data that suggests the economic slowdown that began in Q1 is still present in Q2. The Atlanta Federal Reserve's GDPNow tracking tool is still showing Q3 GDP above 0% but it has taken a noticeable downturn in recent weeks. With the market in retreat, the economic data weak, and the PCE price index due out on Friday the odds of another major sell-off are high. The S&P 500 is still above the 30-day EMA but not by much and it won't take much to spark the move. Once the index is below 4,115 investors should expect to see downward momentum build and the index fall to 4,000 or lower.

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/07/21/not-always-sunny-philadelphia-fed-business-outlook-plunges-to-12-30-in-july-as-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-retreats-to-1-6-for-q2-will-the-fed-stop-qt/

This is the Waberboy with your Daily News Brief for Wedneesday July 13, 2022 Gold River Trading Co. Are you tired of buying sugary drinks and coffee from large woke corporations? Throw a tea party! Gold River Trading Co. is an American company that offers premium alternatives for Americans who enjoy a delicious cup of tea. Start your day with Gold River’s invigorating American Breakfast Blend, cool down with a pitcher of crisp & refreshing Iced Tea, or unwind with Chamomile Herbal tea. Explore a variety of high-quality blends and enjoy a healthy, flavorful alternative from an American company that shares your values. Go to goldriverco.com and save 10% off all orders using discount code CROSSPOLITIC at checkout. On July 8th President Biden was supposed to sign an executive order regarding reproductive rights, and the order would direct Health and Human Services to take action…but there is one problem. He neer signed an executive order. Go to the Federal Registry, you can’t find it! https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2022 But what they have released is a Fact Sheet…that has literally no authority: FACT SHEET: President Biden to Sign Executive Order Protecting Access to Reproductive Health Care Services https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/08/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-sign-executive-order-protecting-access-to-reproductive-health-care-services/ Today, President Biden will sign an Executive Order Protecting Access to Reproductive Health Care Services. This Executive Order builds on the actions his Administration has already taken to defend reproductive rights by: -Safeguarding access to reproductive health care services, including abortion and contraception; -Protecting the privacy of patients and their access to accurate information; -Promoting the safety and security of patients, providers, and clinics; and -Coordinating the implementation of Federal efforts to protect reproductive rights and access to health care. HHS: https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/07/11/following-president-bidens-executive-order-protect-access-reproductive-health-care-hhs-announces-guidance-clarify-that-emergency-medical-care-includes-abortion-services.html Since the plan was announced, HHS has taken the following actions: Launched the ReproductiveRights.gov public awareness website, which includes a know-your-rights patient fact sheet; Convened a meeting with health insurers, and sent them a letter, calling on the industry to commit to meeting their obligations to provide coverage for contraceptive services at no cost as required by the Affordable Care Act; Issued guidance to patients and providers that addresses the extent to which federal law and regulations protect individuals’ private medical information when it comes to seeking abortion and other forms of reproductive health care, as well as when it comes to using health information apps on smartphones; Announced nearly $3 million in new funding to bolster training and technical assistance for the nationwide network of Title X family planning providers; and Met with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Oregon Governor Kate Brown, and Maine Governor Janet Mills and state attorneys general to discuss state-specific concerns. HHS will take additional actions in the coming days. Pig-Heart Transplants in Two Brain-Dead People Offer Chance to Improve Tests for Pig Viruses https://www.wsj.com/articles/pig-heart-transplants-in-two-brain-dead-people-offer-chance-to-improve-tests-for-pig-viruses-11657638000 According to WSJ: Two brain-dead individuals received genetically modified pig-heart transplants, part of growing efforts by scientists who want to improve tests on pig organs for pig viruses and gather data that could help launch clinical trials of animal-to-human organ transplants. Scientists at NYU Langone Health, where the research studies took place in June and July, said the pig hearts were flown from a facility hundreds of miles away and then transplanted into two recently deceased individuals, Lawrence Kelly, 72, a former welder from Beaver Meadows, Pa., and Alva Capuano, 64, a former teacher from New York City. Mr. Kelly was driving alone in his car when he suffered a heart attack, according to his fiancée, Alice Michael. Ms. Capuano, who had been the recipient of a kidney transplant from her son many years ago, had a heart attack while at home, said her husband, Richard Capuano. Both individuals were later declared brain-dead and maintained on ventilators. Their families agreed to donate their bodies to science, to take part in the research studies. In the U.S., brain death is defined as the irreversible cessation of all brain function, even if heart and lung activity can be maintained with machines. The pig hearts weren’t immediately rejected by the recipients’ bodies and functioned for the duration of the three-day studies, according to Nader Moazami, surgical director of heart transplantation at NYU Langone Health, who led the pig-heart procedures. The data haven’t been published yet or peer-reviewed. The issue was highlighted by the recent case of David Bennett, a 57-year-old handyman from Hagerstown, Md., whose pig-heart transplant was conducted at the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore. The emergency procedure was aimed at extending the critically ill man’s life. Mr. Bennett died in March, 60 days after the transplant surgery. Fight Laugh Feast Magazine Our Fight Laugh Feast Magazine is a quarterly issue that packs a punch like a 21 year Balvenie, no ice. We don’t water down our scotch, why would we water down our theology? Order a yearly subscription for yourself and then send a couple yearly subscriptions to your friends who have been drinking luke-warm evangelical cool-aid. Every quarter we promise quality food for the soul, wine for the heart, and some Red Bull for turning over tables. Our magazine will include cultural commentary, a Psalm of the quarter, recipes for feasting, laughter sprinkled through out the glossy pages, and more. Sign up today, at fightlaughfeast.com. Euro, dollar a penny away from parity for first time in 20 years https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/euro-dollar-penny-away-from-parity-first-time-20-years For the first time in nearly two decades, the exchange rate between the euro and the U.S dollar is about equal. The euro dropped to a 20-year low on Monday, approaching parity with the dollar on fears that an energy crisis in the European Union could drag the region into a recession. The euro traded at around $1.007 on Monday afternoon in the U.S, down roughly 15% from the start of the year. The parity between the two currencies comes as Russia shut off a key pipeline – Nord Stream 1 – carrying gas to Germany for annual maintenance. While the routine work that includes "testing of mechanical elements and automation systems" is scheduled to end on July 21, German officials fear the suspension of Russian gas could last longer than anticipated because of the war in Ukraine. The strong U.S. dollar is good news for Americans traveling to Europe this summer, who can expect to pay less for a plethora of goods while they are overseas. Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker Still Negative Even After Blowout Jobs Number https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/07/08/atlanta-fed-gdp-tracker-still-negative-even-after-blowout-jobs-number/ The jobs number for June was much better than expected but not good enough to push the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP tracker back into positive territory. The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs in the month of June, far better than the 250,000 expected. Wholesaler inventories grew by 1.8 percent in May, slightly lower than the initial estimate of two percent. The growth of employment and inventories was not enough to overcome the disappointing news in the weeks preceding it. The real-time GDP tracker run by the Federal Reserve, called GDPNOW, fell into negative territory weeks ago and remains there even now. On Friday afternoon, it registered a 1.2 percent contraction in the economy in the second quarter. If that turns out to be right, this would be the second consecutive quarterly contraction. In the minds of many, that constitutes a recession—even if the official arbiters of recessions at the National Bureau of Economic Research may not declare it to be a recession because unemployment remains so low. The odds are that the Atlanta Fed’s tracker will not rise into positive territory. There are only three more readings left before the official read of second quarter GDP is published on July 28th. On July 27th, we’ll get the final read. It will include figures from estimates of manufacturing in June, likely to show evidence of the contraction that has shown up in surveys. The final data source that will inform that GDPNOW estimate will be the Advance Economic Indicators, which are an amalgam of what we learned from inventory and trade data. In short, GDPNOW is more likely to fall than rise. Big upside surprises in the economic data could turn it around but that looks unlikely. Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-could-provide-more-fuel-for-inflation-11657618231 Climbing housing costs are set to keep inflation elevated this year, creating another challenge for Federal Reserve officials who want to see signs that price pressures are easing before slowing their interest-rate increases. Overall annual inflation rose to 8.6% in May, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, hit 6%, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. The June figures are set to be released Wednesday. Rising fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions from Russia’s war against Ukraine added to inflation that was already high due to surging demand from the economy’s reopening and aggressive government stimulus. Annual housing inflation, as measured in the CPI, hit a recent low in early 2021 at 1.4% and it has since rebounded, to 5.4% in May, well above the annual average of 3.5% between 2015 and 2019. Because of the way the Labor Department captures rental prices, rent inflation could continue to rise this summer before peaking at around 6.5% over the next several months, said David Wilcox, a senior economist at Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That would be a 36-year high. Fed rate increases have led to a broad pullback in financial risk taking, sending up borrowing costs and leading to stock-market declines. Mortgage rates have recently jumped to a 14-year high, and home builders and real-estate agents are reporting a significant pullback in sales. But demand for rental housing could continue to rise, keeping rents high. “These rent-based components in the inflation indices are likely to prove relatively impervious to the tightening in financial conditions we’re seeing right now,” said Mr. Wilcox. Other inflation forecasters see less scope for an additional, large run-up in housing inflation. Based on recent data, Omair Sharif, head of the advisory firm Inflation Insights LLC, expects housing inflation to rise to 6% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, he expects other service prices, such as for health insurance, to drop at the end of the year, providing enough downward pressure to monthly inflation readings to more than offset any strength from housing. This is Gabriel Rench with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief.

This is the Waberboy with your Daily News Brief for Wedneesday July 13, 2022 Gold River Trading Co. Are you tired of buying sugary drinks and coffee from large woke corporations? Throw a tea party! Gold River Trading Co. is an American company that offers premium alternatives for Americans who enjoy a delicious cup of tea. Start your day with Gold River’s invigorating American Breakfast Blend, cool down with a pitcher of crisp & refreshing Iced Tea, or unwind with Chamomile Herbal tea. Explore a variety of high-quality blends and enjoy a healthy, flavorful alternative from an American company that shares your values. Go to goldriverco.com and save 10% off all orders using discount code CROSSPOLITIC at checkout. On July 8th President Biden was supposed to sign an executive order regarding reproductive rights, and the order would direct Health and Human Services to take action…but there is one problem. He neer signed an executive order. Go to the Federal Registry, you can’t find it! https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2022 But what they have released is a Fact Sheet…that has literally no authority: FACT SHEET: President Biden to Sign Executive Order Protecting Access to Reproductive Health Care Services https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/07/08/fact-sheet-president-biden-to-sign-executive-order-protecting-access-to-reproductive-health-care-services/ Today, President Biden will sign an Executive Order Protecting Access to Reproductive Health Care Services. This Executive Order builds on the actions his Administration has already taken to defend reproductive rights by: -Safeguarding access to reproductive health care services, including abortion and contraception; -Protecting the privacy of patients and their access to accurate information; -Promoting the safety and security of patients, providers, and clinics; and -Coordinating the implementation of Federal efforts to protect reproductive rights and access to health care. HHS: https://www.hhs.gov/about/news/2022/07/11/following-president-bidens-executive-order-protect-access-reproductive-health-care-hhs-announces-guidance-clarify-that-emergency-medical-care-includes-abortion-services.html Since the plan was announced, HHS has taken the following actions: Launched the ReproductiveRights.gov public awareness website, which includes a know-your-rights patient fact sheet; Convened a meeting with health insurers, and sent them a letter, calling on the industry to commit to meeting their obligations to provide coverage for contraceptive services at no cost as required by the Affordable Care Act; Issued guidance to patients and providers that addresses the extent to which federal law and regulations protect individuals’ private medical information when it comes to seeking abortion and other forms of reproductive health care, as well as when it comes to using health information apps on smartphones; Announced nearly $3 million in new funding to bolster training and technical assistance for the nationwide network of Title X family planning providers; and Met with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, Oregon Governor Kate Brown, and Maine Governor Janet Mills and state attorneys general to discuss state-specific concerns. HHS will take additional actions in the coming days. Pig-Heart Transplants in Two Brain-Dead People Offer Chance to Improve Tests for Pig Viruses https://www.wsj.com/articles/pig-heart-transplants-in-two-brain-dead-people-offer-chance-to-improve-tests-for-pig-viruses-11657638000 According to WSJ: Two brain-dead individuals received genetically modified pig-heart transplants, part of growing efforts by scientists who want to improve tests on pig organs for pig viruses and gather data that could help launch clinical trials of animal-to-human organ transplants. Scientists at NYU Langone Health, where the research studies took place in June and July, said the pig hearts were flown from a facility hundreds of miles away and then transplanted into two recently deceased individuals, Lawrence Kelly, 72, a former welder from Beaver Meadows, Pa., and Alva Capuano, 64, a former teacher from New York City. Mr. Kelly was driving alone in his car when he suffered a heart attack, according to his fiancée, Alice Michael. Ms. Capuano, who had been the recipient of a kidney transplant from her son many years ago, had a heart attack while at home, said her husband, Richard Capuano. Both individuals were later declared brain-dead and maintained on ventilators. Their families agreed to donate their bodies to science, to take part in the research studies. In the U.S., brain death is defined as the irreversible cessation of all brain function, even if heart and lung activity can be maintained with machines. The pig hearts weren’t immediately rejected by the recipients’ bodies and functioned for the duration of the three-day studies, according to Nader Moazami, surgical director of heart transplantation at NYU Langone Health, who led the pig-heart procedures. The data haven’t been published yet or peer-reviewed. The issue was highlighted by the recent case of David Bennett, a 57-year-old handyman from Hagerstown, Md., whose pig-heart transplant was conducted at the University of Maryland Medical Center in Baltimore. The emergency procedure was aimed at extending the critically ill man’s life. Mr. Bennett died in March, 60 days after the transplant surgery. Fight Laugh Feast Magazine Our Fight Laugh Feast Magazine is a quarterly issue that packs a punch like a 21 year Balvenie, no ice. We don’t water down our scotch, why would we water down our theology? Order a yearly subscription for yourself and then send a couple yearly subscriptions to your friends who have been drinking luke-warm evangelical cool-aid. Every quarter we promise quality food for the soul, wine for the heart, and some Red Bull for turning over tables. Our magazine will include cultural commentary, a Psalm of the quarter, recipes for feasting, laughter sprinkled through out the glossy pages, and more. Sign up today, at fightlaughfeast.com. Euro, dollar a penny away from parity for first time in 20 years https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/euro-dollar-penny-away-from-parity-first-time-20-years For the first time in nearly two decades, the exchange rate between the euro and the U.S dollar is about equal. The euro dropped to a 20-year low on Monday, approaching parity with the dollar on fears that an energy crisis in the European Union could drag the region into a recession. The euro traded at around $1.007 on Monday afternoon in the U.S, down roughly 15% from the start of the year. The parity between the two currencies comes as Russia shut off a key pipeline – Nord Stream 1 – carrying gas to Germany for annual maintenance. While the routine work that includes "testing of mechanical elements and automation systems" is scheduled to end on July 21, German officials fear the suspension of Russian gas could last longer than anticipated because of the war in Ukraine. The strong U.S. dollar is good news for Americans traveling to Europe this summer, who can expect to pay less for a plethora of goods while they are overseas. Atlanta Fed GDP Tracker Still Negative Even After Blowout Jobs Number https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2022/07/08/atlanta-fed-gdp-tracker-still-negative-even-after-blowout-jobs-number/ The jobs number for June was much better than expected but not good enough to push the Atlanta Fed’s real-time GDP tracker back into positive territory. The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy added 372,000 jobs in the month of June, far better than the 250,000 expected. Wholesaler inventories grew by 1.8 percent in May, slightly lower than the initial estimate of two percent. The growth of employment and inventories was not enough to overcome the disappointing news in the weeks preceding it. The real-time GDP tracker run by the Federal Reserve, called GDPNOW, fell into negative territory weeks ago and remains there even now. On Friday afternoon, it registered a 1.2 percent contraction in the economy in the second quarter. If that turns out to be right, this would be the second consecutive quarterly contraction. In the minds of many, that constitutes a recession—even if the official arbiters of recessions at the National Bureau of Economic Research may not declare it to be a recession because unemployment remains so low. The odds are that the Atlanta Fed’s tracker will not rise into positive territory. There are only three more readings left before the official read of second quarter GDP is published on July 28th. On July 27th, we’ll get the final read. It will include figures from estimates of manufacturing in June, likely to show evidence of the contraction that has shown up in surveys. The final data source that will inform that GDPNOW estimate will be the Advance Economic Indicators, which are an amalgam of what we learned from inventory and trade data. In short, GDPNOW is more likely to fall than rise. Big upside surprises in the economic data could turn it around but that looks unlikely. Housing Could Provide More Fuel for Inflation https://www.wsj.com/articles/housing-could-provide-more-fuel-for-inflation-11657618231 Climbing housing costs are set to keep inflation elevated this year, creating another challenge for Federal Reserve officials who want to see signs that price pressures are easing before slowing their interest-rate increases. Overall annual inflation rose to 8.6% in May, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, hit 6%, according to the Labor Department’s consumer-price index. The June figures are set to be released Wednesday. Rising fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions from Russia’s war against Ukraine added to inflation that was already high due to surging demand from the economy’s reopening and aggressive government stimulus. Annual housing inflation, as measured in the CPI, hit a recent low in early 2021 at 1.4% and it has since rebounded, to 5.4% in May, well above the annual average of 3.5% between 2015 and 2019. Because of the way the Labor Department captures rental prices, rent inflation could continue to rise this summer before peaking at around 6.5% over the next several months, said David Wilcox, a senior economist at Bloomberg Economics and the Peterson Institute for International Economics. That would be a 36-year high. Fed rate increases have led to a broad pullback in financial risk taking, sending up borrowing costs and leading to stock-market declines. Mortgage rates have recently jumped to a 14-year high, and home builders and real-estate agents are reporting a significant pullback in sales. But demand for rental housing could continue to rise, keeping rents high. “These rent-based components in the inflation indices are likely to prove relatively impervious to the tightening in financial conditions we’re seeing right now,” said Mr. Wilcox. Other inflation forecasters see less scope for an additional, large run-up in housing inflation. Based on recent data, Omair Sharif, head of the advisory firm Inflation Insights LLC, expects housing inflation to rise to 6% by the end of the year. Meanwhile, he expects other service prices, such as for health insurance, to drop at the end of the year, providing enough downward pressure to monthly inflation readings to more than offset any strength from housing. This is Gabriel Rench with your CrossPolitic Daily News Brief.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPnow measure, which tracks economic data in real time, shows a contraction in the second quarter of 2022 of 2.1%. Following the first quarter's 1.6% drop, this meets the technical definition of a recession. 5) Biden leads G7 nations in calling for price cap on Russian oil; 4) US economy contracted over first half of year; 3) Yair Lapid takes over as interim Prime Minister of Israel; 2) More rulings from conservative-leaning Supreme Court; 1) New data from Hubble space telescope leads to discovery of “something weird” that NASA researchers can't explain with current physics.

The rebound in equities came to an end last week when the market hit a key resistance point at the 30-day moving average. The action confirms short-term traders are still bearish and in control of a market gearing up for bad news. The bad news could begin this week with the NFP report but the real risk is in the earnings outlook. The peak of the Q2 earnings reporting season begins next week and will likely result in a massive downgrade to the 2nd half outlook. In this scenario, we are expecting the S&P 500 to move down to 3,400 or lower. What the market fears is a recession and the odds of a major recession shot to new highs last week. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking tool fell to -1.0% and predicts the US is already in a mild recession. Based on the fact the Q1 figures were also revised lower last week we think the 2nd quarter GDP could be below 2.0%.

I mercati hanno davvero già scontato tutti gli aumenti dei tassi attesi?In questa diretta ti mostro il comportamento dell'ETF contenente aziende che beneficiano di una politica monetaria restrittiva e i segnali che ci sta fornendo.Dai dati macro si prevede un rallentamento del GDP USA anche in Q2, dopo che il GDPNow è stato nuovamente rivisto al ribasso, ora al -2.0%.I PMI manifatturieri di giugno confermano la debolezza del settore, negli USA come in Europa, mentre sia la business che la consumer confidence continuano nel loro trend negativo.

The major U.S. equity indexes edged into positive territory after opening in the red, even as a measure of U.S. manufacturing activity fell to 53 in June from 56.1 in May, a two-year low, and the latest update to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow gauge came in at negative 2.1% on an annualized basis. Not only is a U.S. recession more likely than a soft landing; we may already be in one. “I'm keeping an open mind, and if we do have a recession it will produce an even more powerful rally, as bull markets are born out of recessions," says Mark Ritchie II. Ritchie II, managing partner and chief investment officer of RTM Capital Advisors, joins Real Vision's Ash Bennington to talk about financial markets, the global economy, and capital preservation. We also hear from Mark Minervini about diversified portfolios in a bear market versus a bull market. And we drop in on an exclusive interview between Ash and CEO Mark Lamb about CoinFLEX's struggle for survival amid the crypto downturn. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3AeGKaR. Watch the full conversation featuring Mark Minervini, Jared Dillian, and Mark Ritchie II here: https://rvtv.io/3OAxAcR. Watch Ash's interview with Mark Lamb here: https://rvtv.io/3yw0ghH. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Gli USA entreranno in recessione!Le previsioni del GDPNow della Fed di Atlanta vedono una decrescita del 1% del pil di Q2. Se questo accadrà davvero vuol dire che gli Stati Uniti entreranno in recessione economica.Il mercato obbligazionario ha già cominciato a scontare una condizione di rallentamento, con la discesa dei rendimenti sia americani che europei.In Europa la situazione prezzi non è migliorata, con i dati flash di giugno che mostrano un nuovo picco per il CPI; oltre il 10% per la Spagna, 8% per l'Italia e la più alta da 40 anni per la Francia.E' ancora il momento per acquistare sottostanti legati all'aumento dell'inflazione? Ti spiego perché ora è ormai troppo tardi!

Stocks rally in relief after Michigan inflation expectations get revised lower. New theme is inflation vs recession risk, focus on GDPNow estimate today. Major FX pairs stick to narrow ranges, Russia defaults, gold bounces back.Risk Warning: 73.03% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: http://www.xm.com/market-analysis-video In-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD.

In this episode of WealthVest: The Weekly Bull & Bear, Drew, Grant and Tim discuss Powell's most recent comments, U.S. Manufacturing output, Atlanta Fed's GDPNow and an uptick in China's economic growth. WealthVest – based in Bozeman, MT, and San Francisco, CA – is a financial services marketing and distribution firm specializing in fixed and fixed index annuities from many high-quality insurance companies. WealthVest provides the tools, resources, practice management support, and products that financial professionals need to provide their clients a predictable retirement that has their best interest in mind.Hosts: Drew Dokken, Grant CollinsAlbum Artwork: Sam YarboroughShow Editing and Production: Tavin DavisDisclosure: The information covered and posted represents the views and opinions of the hosts and does not necessarily represent the views or opinions of WealthVest. The mere appearance of Content on the Site does not constitute an endorsement by WealthVest. The Content has been made available for informational and educational purposes only. WealthVest does not make any representation or warranties with respect to the accuracy, applicability, fitness, or completeness of the Content.WealthVest does not warrant the performance, effectiveness or applicability of any sites listed or linked to in any Content. The content is not intended to be a substitute for professional investing advice. Always seek the advice of your financial advisor or other qualified financial service provider with any questions you may have regarding your investment planning. Investment and investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

Equities reversed course on Thursday giving up all of their post-FOMC gains and more. The S&P 500 fell more than 3.5% at the low of the day to not only set a new low but indicate rising conviction within the market of an earnings recession if not an actual recession. With the FOMC on pace to raise rates to above 3.0% by the end of the year the odds of both an earnings recession and actual recession are on the rise. In regards to GDP growth and actual recession, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool fell to 0.0% for the 2nd quarter and is on track to hit negative territory. If this turns into reality and 2nd quarter GDP is negative the economy is already in a recession and that makes the risk worse. In this scenario, it's not a recession that is the worry but how deep and how long it will be, and how hard will the landing be.

This episode is also available as a blog post: http://confoundedinterest.net/2022/02/28/oh-atlanta-atlanta-fed-gdpnow-q1-forecast-drops-to-0-631-with-real-wage-growth-at-2-38-coal-is-soaring/

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect Aotearoa/New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.And this is the final podcast for this week. There will be a website briefing tomorrow but no podcast.Today we lead with news there been a set of somewhat surprising good economic news just ahead of the holidays.The final US GDP result for Q3-2021 came in better than expected with a +2.3% expansion when the earlier estimates had signaled +2.1%. It not a huge positive change, but it wasn't expected. And for an economy as large as the US, that +0.2% is an extra US$50 bln of annualised activity and is largely based on better personal consumption levels than had previously been estimated.Also better than expected, and much more current, is consumer sentiment. The widely-watched Conference Board survey advanced sharply in December, continuing a three month shift up. And concerns about inflation declined after hitting a 13-year high last month.Existing home sales rose faster in November than October, although this rise wasn't quite as strong as anticipated. Still, homes are now selling at their fastest pace since February.The estimates for expansion in the US economy in the final quarter of 2021 are actually very positive. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool signals an expansion topping +7%. Most other analysts see it closer to a +6% annualised expansion. Either way, the US economy should add more than +US$1.4 tln in real activity activity and far more than the inflationary impact.But inflation is the thing to watch in 2022. It is being embedded into everything now. In the US transportation and logistics providers are demanding big boosts in prices for contracts for the coming year. Strong demand and tight capacity in freight markets are likely to persist. Pressures like this encourage re-shoring. But re-shoring is to an environment of higher costs, permanently. The cost of 'logistics safety' is now being embedded. What will be interesting to watch is how far that will go when Asian goods continue to cost less and probably significantly so as Asian/Chinese suppliers struggle to win orders. China is now pivoting back to 'supporting' their exporters. Price advantages can win many orders. Not every company will forsake low-cost manufacturing even if it comes with logistics downsides.We don't often report on the Russian economy, but two data points caught the eye today. Producer prices rose +29% year-on-year in November along with consumer prices. And consumer confidence - which is never positive in Russia, is falling more negative again. And both data sets are as produced by the Kremlin.The UST 10yr yield opens today at 1.46% and a -2 bps dip since this time yesterday. The price of gold will start today at US$1799/oz and up +US$12 from this time yesterday.And oil prices start today +US$1 higher at just over US$72/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$74.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today almost +¾c firmer at just under 68.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are softer at 94.4 AUc. Against the euro we are back up to 60.2 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 starts the today up at 72.7 and a further gain of +40 bps overnight.The bitcoin price is up to US$48,888 and a mere +0.5% above this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/- 1.3%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. There will be a website briefing tomorrow so look out for that for the latest updates, but no podcast.I'm David Chaston and we'll do this again next Wednesday.

A little insider info for those Fed Presidents? Come on now – fess up and dump your stock. GDPNOW, looking a bit weaker than expected. Apple has an event/non-event. PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Is Dallas Fed President Bob Kaplan a farmer because he owns the money trees?? Why did the Federal Reserve just STOP reporting GDPNow, the most accurate forecaster of GDP and in real time? Do they KNOW something YOU SHOULD!? And is Transitory becoming Permanent?  Find out why Don is the Designated Survivor in the […] The post Mastering the Tick Explosion Trade appeared first on Revere Asset Management.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news of new inflation risks from the dramatic Suez Canal blockage that will upset most global supply chains.But first in the US, there was a sharp drop in initial jobless claims last week, falling more than -100,000 to 657,000 and the lowest in a year. In addition there were 242,000 Pandemic Unemployment Assistance claims filed, also a very sharp reduction. (Interestingly, exactly a year ago, the first of the huge spikes in claims started with almost 3 mln people filing claims then in one week.) There are now 3,870,000 people still on these benefits. This is very much lower than analysts were expecting.The next regional factory survey, this one by the Kansas City Fed, shows the solid expansion well embedded with strong new order growth. But this latest survey continues the reporting that input costs are rising fast and most firms say they can pass most of them on.The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast has the US economy growing at +5.4% pa in March.The US Treasury had a big bond tender for its benchmark 7yr Note and the yield rose to +1.3% pa and well above its prior 1.195%. US$150 bln was tendered for the US$73 bln that was accepted. Today's result takes the yield back to higher than a year ago after the suppressed pandemic falls.In the dramatic Suez Canal blockage and shutdown, it is now expected to "take weeks" to clear the problem. The blockage is creating long tailbacks in the waterway, with more than 150 vessels currently waiting in the area to pass. The alternative Cape Town route can add two weeks plus to the journey. There will be a global impact from this problem, sharply increasing shipping costs and container availability everywhere, all adding to an already stressed and expensive problem.In Canada their housing regulator is pointing out their vulnerability to a downward price correction there. Toronto is the key market at risk, but these risks of overheating are spreading to other cities they say, and the coming correction could be sharp.In Germany, there was a notable shrinkage in their negative consumer sentiment, a result of the easing of their lockdown conditions.In China, a different kind of supply chain problem is growing. The boycott of the use of forced or slave labour in making Chinese cotton is seeing Beijing force its ecommerce firms to remove the products of companies who adhere to that boycott. It is an issue that is further fracturing relations between the West and China, and China's sensitivity over the issue (in support of slave labour) is hard to understand except as a challenge to their wounded pride. The Australians have called China a 'vindictive' and 'unreliable' trading partner, an escalation that is sure to draw a response.The UST 10yr yield is unchanged at 1.62%. The price of gold starts today back down -US$7 in New York at US$1728/oz.Oil prices have given up all of yesterday's recovery and more, down -US$3/bbl and are now at just over US$58/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just under US$61.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today even lower at 69.6 USc with an extended devaluation that has now reached -4.0% in just over a week. Against the Australian dollar we are holding at 91.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding at 59.1 euro cents. Today's shifts are again all about a rising greenback. That means our TWI-5 opens today marginally lower at 72.2.The bitcoin price will start today at US$51,153 and down a sharp -8.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility in the past 24 hours has been very high at +/- 5.9%. You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We will do this again on Monday.

Kia ora,Welcome to Thursday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets have been waiting all week for - the Fed to speak. They has been meeting and today sharply upgraded their forecasts for American economic growth in 2021. Elsewhere they left their pandemic setting for monetary policy unchanged in what is essentially a cautions review. But that growth upgrade reinforces market moves to raise long term benchmark interest rates on the basis that this growth will be inflationary at some point, and relatively soon. The Fed however thinks the inflationary bump will be short-lived.The US Treasury is quickly disbursing stimulus payments. So far US$242 bln has been paid out to 90 mln people. This is less than halfway, so the amount of direct juice straight to households is very large. Even larger are other program support payments, taking the eventual total to US$1.9 tln or +9% of US GDP. Most professional analysts see Q1-2021 growth running at close to +5% in the US. The AtlantaFed's GDPNow forecast has it running at almost +6%. For an economy as large as the US, this is very large, and don't forget, most of the Biden stimulus plan won't have much impact in Q1-2021. It's effect will be felt in the rest of 2021.It could result in the largest American economic expansion in a generation.In advance of that, US housing starts tumbled in February when no change was expected. It was an unwelcome surprise and is -9% lower than for the same month in 2020. "The weather" is getting the blame, but building permit levels have stayed elevated, and housing completions are running +5% higher than year-ago levels.American mortgage applications fell slightly last week and mortgage rates inched higher. Their benchmark 30yr fixed is now at 3.05% plus points, and that is a nine month high.In Canada, they are watching their core consumer inflation rate fall. It was down to 1.2% in the year to February, a drop from 1.6% in January.In China, food security is important to them and they are facing real threats to key crops from fungal diseases and insects. They response has been to pour on the chemicals. And they are importing increasing amounts of grains to make up for their domestic shortfalls. They don't seem to ne making progress on food security.In Europe, their core inflation rate came in at just +1.1% but that was expected even if it was lower than they recorded in January.Locally, keep an eye out for the NZ Q4 GDP which is coming up at 10:45am; expect a +0.5% annual rise.The UST 10yr yield is up +3 bps from yesterday at just over 1.65%. The price of gold starts today down -US$4 in New York at US$1728/oz.Oil prices have dipped again and are now just over US$64/bbl in the US, while the international price is now just over US$67/bbl.The Kiwi dollar opens today at under 72.1 USc and taking a big jump post the US Fed announcement. Against the Australian dollar we are also little-changed at 92.8 AUc. Against the euro we soft at 60.3 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 opens today at over 74.The bitcoin price will start today at US$55,382 and very little changed from this time yesterday. In between, volatility in the past 24 hours has been +/- 2.7%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Monday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news apart from the local community COVID spread in South Auckland.First, a 7.3 magnitude earthquake hit off Fukushima prefecture in northeastern Japan late Saturday night, causing no deaths but causing widespread power outages in the region. There was no threat of a tsunami from the quake. This one is being said to be an aftershock from the 2011 quake.China is ramping up its efforts to join the TPP. This comes as it tries to get ahead of the growing Quad (US, Japan, China, India) moves to check China's regional expansions. New Zealand as part of the Five Eyes alliance (US, Canada, Australia, the UK and New Zealand) is drawn into those efforts anyway. Now the latest Chinese foray puts New Zealand at the centre of this tension, with Beijing saying Wellington is the key for its TPP membership drive. New Zealand diplomacy is both elevated, and at the same time running huge risks for our trade given the upgraded NZ:China FTA recently agreed. The Chinese have successfully made us very vulnerable to the consequence of their displeasure if we don't do "the right thing" for them.China's 'stay put' order over their Luna New Year holiday is distorting transport modes. Passenger travel is down nearly -70% in the first half of February compared to the same period last year. But freight traffic is up nearly +9% on the same basis.In the US, the latest UofM consumer sentiment survey edged downward to a six month low in early February, with the entire loss concentrated in the Expectation Index and among households with incomes below US$75,000. Households with incomes in the bottom third reported significant setbacks in their current finances, with fewer of these households mentioning recent income gains than anytime since 2014.But a new survey of economists expects US 2021 growth to show its strongest gains in 25 years. And in fact, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast suggests Q1-2021 might be off to a sharp +4.5% pa rise. Most senior professionals however think it is likely to be more like a +2% growth rate.In the US State of Maryland (basically Baltimore), they have enacted a tax on Big Tech revenues along the lines the EU has proposed and Australia is contemplating. It too will face fierce opposition from the industry. But not everyone; Microsoft is urging Canada to take on Facebook and Google News like Australia.In Washington DC, ex-Fed boss and now Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is to create a new senior position that will drive their regulators to do more to strengthen their financial system’s resilience to climate risks.In Canada, their Senior Loan Officer survey has turned very negative again.In India, industrial production rose in December, surprising analysts who had expected another decline.In Italy, the former head of the ECB, Mario Draghi, has formed a new national unity government in an attempt to get Italy out of its economic funk and break the entrenched partisanship in their politics.In the UK, they released their Q4-2020 GDP data over the weekend. It rose by +1.0% from the prior quarter which was a surprise, but the level of economic activity there is now -7.8% below its year-ago level. That is its worst annual result since 1709! Even so, this grisly decline is marginally better than forecasted.In Australia, property developers building housing for NSW renters will be eligible for tax discounts and planning exemptions.Victoria is now in a “short, sharp circuit-breaker” lockdown for five days amid fears the highly infectious UK strain of coronavirus has spread in the community there.The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising but at a slower pace, now at 108,655,000 and up +155,000 in one day. The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp from yesterday at just on 1.21% and its highest in almost one year. The price of gold will start today up +US$4 at US$1824/oz.Oil prices have drifted slightly since Saturday and are now at just over US$59.50/bbl in the US, while the international price is just over US$62/bbl.And the Kiwi dollar opens today little-changed at 72.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are similar at 93.1 AUc. Against the euro we are at 59.6 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is the same as it was on Saturday at 73.6 and largely unchanged in a week.The bitcoin price is up +2.7% from this time Saturday and is now at US$49,106. It hasn't hit US$50,000 yet but it did reach a new all-time high of US$49,716 in the past 24 hours. Volatility has been high at +/- 3.2%.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.And get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz.Kia ora. I'm David Chaston. We will do this again tomorrow.

Kia ora,Welcome to Friday's Economy Watch where we follow the economic events and trends that affect New Zealand.I'm David Chaston and this is the International edition from Interest.co.nz.Today we lead with news markets have had a shot in the arm from good December American data.The advance estimate of US retail sales in December came in at the levels markets expected. This was stated as a +0.3% rise month-on-month, seasonally adjusted. A modest gain. But if you look at the actual trading data, December 2019 was a full +6.0% higher than December 2018 while November was +2.8% higher on the same basis. For all of 2019, retail sales were up +3.6% from 2018. So you have to say this advance December data is quite positive - the American retail impulse in a key holiday shopping period was strong.Also strong is the latest regional Fed survey from the Philadelphia region. It was up much more than was expected, a bit of an outlier among most of the other Fed regions.But none of this was enough to improve the US growth prospects. The latest version of their GDPNow analysis has Q1-2020 growth slowing to +1.8% pa, down from a prior estimate of +2.3% for Q4 2019. And there is doubt about the actual impact of the US-China trade deal.However today's good retail data has helped the S&P500 rise today, up +0.6% and that means for all of 2020 it is now up a cumulative +1.5%. Overnight European markets weren't as positive, nor were the key Asian markets, although Tokyo is up +3.1% so far for all of 2020. Yesterday both the ASX200 and the NZX50 each rose about +0.6%, cementing in a strong +5.2% gain so far for Aussie equities, but a much less +1.2% for the NZX50 Capital Index. [Advert]And here is a message from our friends at Hatch.The foundation of sound investing is all about the ability to minimise risk by spreading investments across sectors, industries and companies. Exchange-traded funds that track market indexes like the S&P 500 offer everyday investors – like you – the benefit of diverse holdings in the largest 500 companies listed on stock exchanges in the US. Hatch gives you can access more than 500 ETFs from BlackRock’s megatrend ETFs to Vanguards Total Stock Market Index fund.Visit www.hatch.as/investing to easily diversify your portfolio. In China, new home prices in their large tier one cities rose slower in December but that caps a year where rises wre about +5%. In second tier cities the rises were similar, and also slowing at the end.Also slowing in December was the growth on bank debt. Chinese banks extended fewer new loans in December, but the country's overall credit growth held up after the central bank eased policy to support the slowing economy. December new loans were -18% less than November and -4% less than analysts were expecting. But they were +12% higher than December a year ago - and +12% higher in 2019 than 2018.And pollution in China seems to be getting worse overall and spreading, despite noticeable gains in Beijing and Shanghai. An uptick in coal and oil consumption coupled with rising industrial output drove pollution increases outside the two main centres.In Australia, lending for housing rose strongly in November for owner-occupiers. The +6.6% jump from a year earlier was attributed to better access to credit and rising house prices across the eastern states. But for investors, lending commitments fell -5.7% on the same basis.The UST 10yr yield is holding at 1.81% after dropping as low as 1.78% earlier. Gold will start today unchanged at US$1,551/oz.US oil prices are firmer today, now just over US$58.50/bbl and the Brent benchmark is now just over US$64.50/bbl.The Kiwi dollar is little-changed at 66.4 USc. On the cross rates we are much firmer at 96.3 AUc. Against the euro we up to 59.6 euro cents. That puts our TWI-5 at 71.5.Meanwhile, bitcoin has held on most of its recent gain, but is about -1% lower today from this time yesterday at US$8,646.You can find links to the articles mentioned today in our show notes.Get more news affecting the economy in New Zealand from interest.co.nz and subscribe to receive this podcast in your favourite podcast app - we're on Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, Spotify or subscribe on our website.Tell your friends and leave us a review - we welcome feedback.

Drew Rathgeber, Sr. Market Strategists Weekly Wrap-Up – April 26th 2019 Latest forecast: 2.7 percent — April 25, 2019 The final GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2019 is 2.7 percent on April 25, down from 2.8 percent on April 19. After the National Association of Realtors’ existing-home… Read more.

Each month, I ask myself. What do longer-term equity readers really need to focus on, right now?    Traders just closed out the first 6 months of 2017. What’s my answer in July? I quote Detective Joe Friday, from the old TV show Dragnet: “Just the facts, ma’am”. (1) What of U.S. GDP growth? This should be a top-of-mind fundamental. On July 6th, GDPNow for Q2 has +2.7%. Final Q1-17 GDP showed modest +1.2% growth. (2)  Improved U.S. earnings and low U.S. unemployment claims still say: “Don’t worry”. Q2 looks for +6.6% EPS growth. A strong Q1-17 earnings season is in the bag. It scored a stunning +13.9% in EPS growth. (3) Monthly labor market evidence? That is as follows. The U.S. created +222K in June, +152 in May, +207K in APRIL, +50K in MAR, +232K jobs in FEB and +216K jobs in JAN. Recall: June was the biggest job addition last year. (4) U.S. unemployment was 4.4% in JUNE. This is ‘frictional’ or ‘natural’ unemployment.

Data are improving, jobs are solid, personal income rising, mountains of cash in the bank and we are in the midst of the early stages of the latest earnings season. By the end of Q3 data, we will have round-tripped most of the energy collapse and bad comps. Hinting that earnings projections are increasing. Soon, 2016 will be forgotten and 2017-2018 will be the focus - and they are rising. So is the GDPNow data.

Going Inside GDPNow