Podcast appearances and mentions of geoff garin

SERIES 2 EPISODE 203: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:40) BULLETIN: The New York Times has called for a candidate to drop out of the presidential race after his performance in a debate - a debate which has IMPROVED his standing against his opponent in several polls. No, President Biden is not dropping out. And that wasn't a family oligarchy intervention Sunday at Camp David to tell him to. It was an offing photo shoot. There are no indications (and let's not fully exhale; we don't know if the impacts might appear long-term) that the debate had any significant impact on the presidential race. CBS-YouGov polling released Sunday says even in the wake of the understandable blunt-force trauma we all went through as we watched, 55% of the Democrats have NO interest in changing horses while after the same debate 54% percent of EVERYBODY says TRUMP should drop out. “I am finishing my second battleground state poll post-debate,” writes the Democratic pollster Geoff Garin, “and both surveys show the same thing: the debate had no effect on the vote choice. The election was extremely close and competitive before the debate, and it is still extremely close and competitive today.” Morning Consult and Data For Progress polled right after the debate, the percentages of those who think Biden should drop out went up like four points, but the Biden-versus-Trump match-up… Biden went UP a point. In Survey USA he went UP THREE points. Translation: yeah, maybe he should drop out but if he doesn't, I'm still voting for him. The almost negligible impact on Biden's poll numbers may be as transitory as whatever it was that impaired the president during the debate, because his health and age is baked-in to the voters' perception of him. There was nothing before the debate, nothing in his grueling international travels to the G7 and Normandy and elsewhere that was as bad as what he did during the debate. He was clear the day before and the next morning. And there is a plausible and intuitively satisfactory possible explanation for what CAUSES something like that in an 81-year old man. If the President had a cold – and I don't know about you, but I'll admit it: I'VE had colds in my life, and his hoarseness, it sounded to me like a cold – if he had a cold, did he take cold medicine? You know, like just Tylenol. Cold medicine. The Yale School of medicine professor, cardiologist and head of outcomes evaluation at Yale New Haven Hospital Center Dr. Harlan Krumholz wrote a piece for Newsweek: “Biden's symptoms are consistent with someone suffering from temporary drug-induced cognitive impairment. Most people believe common over-the-counter cold medications such as Dayquil, Tylenol, or Advil to be harmless. While generally well tolerated, these medications have well-documented side effects and can cause reduced alertness, diminished attention, poor memory, and reduced reaction time, especially in older individuals. These impairments are transitory but can appear consequential and alarming. Every experienced clinician has seen this effect thousands of times…" The real illness right now may be in our media. NBC News got the Camp David thing utterly wrong. The Times made fools of its editorial board and top columnists and based on something a staffer wrote there is every reason to suspect that it acted as it did because if Biden were to drop out it would prove the Times wasn't a fatally broken organization that put its thumb on the scale because he wouldn't give them a one-on-one interview. Regardless: the breaking news is - nothing's broken.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Actual presidential elections occur only every four years, but political polls operate every year, week-in and week-out, supposedly to give Americans a real-time sense of who is up and who is down in the political horse race. How do the political candidates themselves use polling as a strategic tool? Can Americans trust polls that are not based on random sampling? Why do polls taken at more or less the same time sometimes seem to point in opposite directions? Peter and Dale examine the evolution and current practice of opinion research with leading Republican pollster Whit Ayres and leading Democratic pollster Geoff Garin.

Guy Cecil recently announced his plans to step down as Chair of Priorities USA - the major Democratic super PAC - after being at the helm for 8 years. In this conversation, he talks his time in the ministry before moving to politics…learning important political lessons amid personal tumult and tragedy…working with big personalities like Chuck Schumer, Harry Reid, and Fritz Hollings…running the DSCC…four cycles helping win elections and innovate campaign strategy at Priorities…plus ideas he's kicking around in considering his next professional chapter.(To donate to support The Pro Politics Podcast, you may use this venmo link or inquire by email at mccrary.zachary@gmail.com)IN THIS EPISODEGuy grows up in a blue-collar family in South Florida…Guy's time as a Baptist minister before moving into politics…The tumultuous personal time that led Guy to work in politics…Guy talks the role of faith in his political career and how Democrats can better connect with people of faith…Guy's take on why working in political field is great preparation for a thriving career in politics…Guy's memories as a junior organizer working for South Carolina Senator Fritz Hollings…Guy witnesses some of the positive side of campaign politics amid personal tragedy…Guy remembers being the Field Director on Mel Carnahan's tragic 2000 US Senate race…Why running the DSCC was his favorite job in politics…Guy tells some of his favorite Harry Reid and Chuck Schumer stories…The underrated political acumen of Senator Michael Bennet…Guy's hindsight on the 2016 Clinton presidential campaign…Guy talks his work at Priorities USA over 4 cycles + the two things he's most proud of…How Guy improved his skill set around raising money…Guy's passion for helping Democratic messaging move past caricaturizing the electorate…How Guy is thinking about his next professional chapter…Guy's analysis on what makes an effective campaign manager…The advice Guy gives those seeking to thrive in politics… AND $5M asks, Joyce Aboussie, the Baptist Student Union, bedwetters, Joe Biden, book worms, Sherrod Brown, Danielle Butterfield, Anne Caprara, Jean Carnahan, Jimmy Carter, Lawton Chiles, Bill Clinton, Color of Change, complete enigmas, cultural Christians, Ron DeSantis, Joe Donnelly, Quentin Fulks, fully-formed human beings, G-D skunks, Geoff Garin, Gator football, Julie Gibson, Peter Gomes, Al Gore, Franklin Graham, Helly Hansen, Hialeah, Jim Hodges, Bob Inglis, Kim Kauffman, the Keane family, Martin Luther King, LCV, marine mechanics, Clair McCaskill, mindless television, Robby Mook, Patty Murray, Jen O'Malley Dillon, Barack Obama, the opposite of Miami, John Podesta, JB Pritzker, The Real Housewives, the Reitz Union, relentless human beings, Christie Roberts, Craig Schirmer, Josh Shapiro, Saul Shorr, Structure, terrible old flip phones, Jon Tester, Thursday afternoon movies, Donald Trump, the two most dreaded two words on campaigns, Type A people, walking around like Mother Theresa, white Catholic women in Wisconsin, Gretchen Whitmer, wiki-leaks…& more!

Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research, has been a leading Democratic researcher and strategist for 30+ years. In this conversation she talks her Montana roots, her path to polling, working for groundbreaking women like Geraldine Ferraro, Carol Mosley Braun, and Nancy Pelosi, working on Biden 2020, and lessons & insights from four decades working to elect Democrats and advance progressive goals. IN THIS EPISODE…Celinda talks growing up on a ranch in Montana…The progressive tradition in Montana…The Vietnam War influences Celinda's politics…Celinda's theory on why Montana produces so much political talent…Celinda moves from the academic world to the campaign world…Celinda tells the story of one of her heroes, the first woman pollster in politics…The first races on which Celinda cut her teeth as a political pollster…Celinda remembers lessons learned from heading up focus groups for Clinton-Gore '92…The origins and rise of Lake Research…The story of turning down a US Senator who wanted to work with Lake Research…How Celinda thinks of issue messaging…Celinda talks the challenges women candidates face…Celinda's memories of working with trailblazers Geraldine Ferraro, Barbara Mikulski, Carol Mosley Braun, and Nancy Pelosi…Celinda polls for AOC during her 2018 upset…What Celinda knows about Joe Biden that might not be common knowledge…Celinda's take on what makes a good pollster…Celinda's strangest work habit…AND….22 rifles, Spence Abraham, John Anzalone, Jerry Austin, David Axelrod, the Barbara Lee Family Foundation, Matt Barreto, Max Baucus, Jill Biden, Valerie Biden, Heather Booth, blueberry muffins, Ron Brown, James Carville, the cat's meow, Hillary Clinton, Copper Kings, country schools, Joe Crowley, Mike Donilon, EEOC lawyers, Emerge, EMILYs List, fitbits, Kathleen Frankovic, Anderson Gardner, gatekeeping, Geoff Garin, Geneva, the gender gap, Ed Goeas, Mandy Grunwald, Stan Greenberg, Bill Hamilton, Kamala Harris, Gary Hart, Peter Hart, Harrison Hickman, Higher Heights, Italian city-states, Justice Democrats, George Lakoff, Joe Lamson, Ed Lazarus, Silas Lee, Ann Lewis, looking for patterns, Mike Lux, Dotty Lynch, mainframes, Nelson Mandela, Mike Mansfield, Mark Mellman, Jim Messina, Lee Metcalf, Warren Miller, Barbara Mikulski, Walter Mondale, Motown, new voices, Northern Plains Resource Council, Kathleen O'Reilly, Ross Perot, John Podesta, Lana Pollack, Bob Putnam, the race-class narrative, ranked-choice voting, Jeanette Rankin, Ready to Run, Ronald Reagan, red state sensibilities, Nelson Rockefeller, Steve Rosenthal, Anat Shenker-Osorio, Smith College, Alysia Snell, social proof, Social Security cards, Doug Sosnik, Debbie Stabenow, Gail Stoltz, student deferments, Phil Tawney, Jon Tester, two for one, University of Michigan, Kathy van Hook, Women's Campaign Fund, The Women's Lobby, Pat Williams, & more!

In this never ending election cycle, there is no such thing as too much analysis about the state of public opinion polling. So, today Rick is joined by Geoff Garin, president of Hart Research, who along with Public Opinion Strategies has conducted the NBC News/Wall Street Journal political poll since 1989. Beyond what the heck happened on November 3 in the Presidential election and across the nation, Geoff and Rick also cast an eye towards the double US Senate run-offs in Georgia. Importantly, they'll also discuss where public opinion stands on Americans' ability to come to a consensus on key issues - climate change and healthcare.

The specter of 2016 still looms in the minds of Democrats everywhere, creating no small amount of fear and uncertainty about what might happen come November. But while caution may prove prudent, there is no denying that there are stark differences between four years ago and today. Hart Research Associates president Geoff Garin outlines key polling numbers explaining a likely turn away from Trump in the coming months. And nowhere is that resentment towards the current status quo felt more than among America's beaten and broken middle class, whom New York Times economics reporter Jim Tankersley explores the plight of in his new book "The Riches of the Land."

We talk numbers with Nate Cohn, a reporter for The Upshot and our most trusted translator of polls. We also check in with seasoned pollsters from each party — Geoff Garin, a Democrat, and Whit Ayres, a Republican — about Mr. Trump’s chances. Finally, we speak to a longtime researcher of polling psychology, Kyle Dropp, about a phenomenon that could be Mr. Trump’s last hope.

We talk numbers with Nate Cohn, a reporter for The Upshot and our most trusted translator of polls. We also check in with seasoned pollsters from each party — Geoff Garin, a Democrat, and Whit Ayres, a Republican — about Mr. Trump's chances. Finally, we speak to a longtime researcher of polling psychology, Kyle Dropp, about a phenomenon that could be Mr. Trump's last hope.

Veteran Dem pollster Geoff Garin comes into the soundbooth to talk about Priorities USA, ad testing, and Donald Trump. Geoff Garin on Twitter. Hart Research.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Geoff Garin has served as one of the most prominent Democratic pollsters of our generation. As President of Hart Research Associates, Garin has led research for nearly every leading policy, health care, education group in the world, including the United Nations and my alma mater, the University of California. He’s also polled for candidates at virtually every level of government – including serving as Chief Strategist for Hillary Clinton in 2008. Today, Midterms are heating up. New polls show the fight for Senate control is close to a toss-up; the South remains up for grabs; and if most Democrats are waiting to hear whether Hillary will run in 2016, new questions around whether that’s the right strategy.Few know more about designing and executing political strategy than Geoff Garin.

On this week’s episode of Chicago Policy Radio, Claire O’Hanlon sits down with Geoff Garin to talk about the results of the 2012 presidential election, the changing demography of the electorate, third parties, and how polling has changed over the course of Mr. Garin’s career.