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Study of the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data

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Best podcasts about statistically

Latest podcast episodes about statistically

Optimal Performance Podcast
378 The mold in your home and what to do about it with Jason Earle from Got Mold

Optimal Performance Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 23, 2022 76:43


No one wants to face it, but it could be zapping your health.  MOLD. Auto-immune, asthma, brain fog, food sensitivity... Get discounts on mold tests for your home HERE https://www.gotmold.com/optimalperformance/ EPISODE SPONSORS - BioProtien+ - Boost HGH Naturally - Get $30 off here  Spartan - 2022 Spartan Race schedule In this episode we cover: •Mold exposure and asthma, depression, insomnia •If you have a moldy crawlspace you have a moldy house 1-800-GOT-MOLD is the mold inspection company •There is no such thing as mold free  •How vast is the impact of mold exposure in people's lives •Statistically, mold impacts lower income communities •What the hell is mold rage? •Every breath you take contains thousands of mold spores •When the insides of buildings get wet, mold grows and doesn't stop •You have 24-48 hours to deal with a moisture issue before you have a mold problem •We are holobionts - so are our homes •gotmold.com/optimalperformance

City United Church Podcast
"Stressed and Alone"

City United Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 15, 2022 32:35


We are living during stressful times. Statistically, stress levels in our culture and world are rising rapidly and people are at their breaking point. Understanding how to deal with the pressures and pivots of life can help us find rest over stress. Many people are longing for a more peaceful life, and they are doing whatever it takes to find it. In this collection, we will look at Psalm 23. This familiar Psalm shows us how to experience a peace-filled life in a stress-filled culture. “Come to me, all of you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” - Jesus, Matthew 11:28 This collection of talks will help you find rest from the daily stressors of your life.

Product Hive
Statistically Significant: UXR Discussion Group 2

Product Hive

Play Episode Listen Later May 14, 2022 43:15


David Moore, Juliet Stinson, Anita English and others will be discussing UX Research topics like Research Methods, especially personas. Resources referenced in this episode: Resource: NNG - Nielsen Norman Group https://www.nngroup.com/ Resource: Baymard Institute https://baymard.com/ Podcast: Awkward Silences https://www.userinterviews.com/podcast Podcast: Mixed Methods https://www.mixed-methods.org/ Resource: Usability.gov https://digital.gov/ Resource: LawsOfUX.com https://lawsofux.com/ View this conversation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5Cq47uDel4 Check out producthive.org to see the latest events, join our community on Slack, and much more. Thanks to Joakim Karud for our music: soundcloud.com/joakimkarud/keep-on-going

The Jasmine Star Show
Statistically Speaking, You're NOT Behind

The Jasmine Star Show

Play Episode Listen Later May 12, 2022 9:38


“It's too late,”“I'm too old,”“There are so many young entrepreneurs, I could never compete with them.”“I can't keep up with the trends.”“I'm not technologically savvy.”Have you ever thought something similar?Let me share with you 3 major takeaways from the 2.7 million startups in a recent study on Inc.com:It's never too late to start a business, ever.The study showed that a start-up founder who is 50 years old is twice as likely to start an extremely successful business than a 30 year old.Experience is better than youth. The more experience you accumulate in life, the smarter decisions you make.This isn't a hypothesis, yo… Statistically speaking, you're NOT behind. And in this episode, I'll prove it to you! Click play now.If you needed to hear this message today, I'd love to hear your thoughts in an iTunes review. My goal is to give you the tools you need to grow your business, and that includes helping you cultivate the MINDSET you need to believe your dreams are possible… Because they ARE possible, my friend, and I will continue shouting it from the rooftops until you believe it, too.

Moms of Tweens and Teens
How To Talk About Porn and Sex With Your Tweens and Teens / Interview with Amy Lang

Moms of Tweens and Teens

Play Episode Listen Later May 10, 2022 63:25


Does talking about sex with your kids make you uncomfortable? Do you know what to do if you find out your tween or teen has been looking at porn? You're not alone. My guest today, Amy Lang, is ready to help!Amy has been a sexual health educator for over 25 years. Amy's books, website, and podcast show parents that talking about sexuality doesn't need to be totally uncomfortable and can actually be fun. She helps parents become their kid's go-to birds and bees resource. We talk about what our teens and tweens need to know about sex and porn. You'll find this episode highly engaging and ready to talk about the birds and bees. Let's dive in!What you will learn:What to do when you find out your child has been exposed to pornography.Parents aren't talking to their kids about sex or porn. Instead of communicating prevention, learn how to talk to your kids about sex to prepare them for exposure.Kids are using porn for sex education.How to talk about sex with your teens and tweens to help them make good decisions.Statistically how young are kids being exposed to porn and how does it affect them.When to start talking to your child about sexuality – it's not too late to start today.What does it look like for you to be a safe person for your child to discuss anything sex-related?The importance of monitoring and filtering your child's internet usage.Best types of internet monitoring software and how to have these conversations with your kid's friend's parents.How to explain to your child that porn is not good for them.Plus, Amy provides scripts you can use to talk to your children about porn and sex.  Where to find Amy:Website: Birds & Bees & KidsFacebookInstagramYouTubeAmy's Books--------Connect with us here at Moms of Tweens and Teens... Find more encouragement, wisdom, and resources:FacebookJoin our CommunityFind awesome resources on MOTTs UniversityInstagramSign up for our Moms of Tweens and Teens newsletter HERE.

Product Hive
Statistically Significant - UXR Discussion Group 1

Product Hive

Play Episode Listen Later May 9, 2022 50:26


David Moore, Juliet Stinson and others will be discussing UX Research topics like the: - User Interviews' “The State of User Research 2021” report - Pre-production discovery—how to do research when you don't have a product or users - Research repositories View this conversation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SyX3ucePssA Check out producthive.org to see the latest events, join our community on Slack, and much more. Thanks to Joakim Karud for our music: soundcloud.com/joakimkarud/keep-on-going

City United Church Podcast
"Stressed and Indecisive"

City United Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 8, 2022 33:31


We are living during stressful times. Statistically, stress levels in our culture and world are rising rapidly and people are at their breaking point. Understanding how to deal with the pressures and pivots of life can help us find rest over stress. Many people are longing for a more peaceful life, and they are doing whatever it takes to find it. In this collection, we will look at Psalm 23. This familiar Psalm shows us how to experience a peace-filled life in a stress-filled culture. “Come to me, all of you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” - Jesus, Matthew 11:28 This collection of talks will help you find rest from the daily stressors of your life.

Real Estate Marketing Dude
How To Use Video When New To An Area

Real Estate Marketing Dude

Play Episode Listen Later May 7, 2022 40:24


Today, we have somebody in studio, we're not in studio on Zoom, that just started doing video maybe three, four months ago, consistently. He's done it in an area that let's just say most people aren't doing video, and because he was sort of sticking out like a sore thumb, he just shot right up. One of the questions we get is like, how do I use video if I'm going into a new market? Well, we're going to show you that's exactly what we're doing here.Our guest today is Stan Hartzheim is an experienced Mortgage Loan Originator who has a demonstrated history of working in the financial services industry with Certification as a Divorce Lending Professional as well as expertise utilizing FHA, VA, USDA, and specialty loan programs. Skilled in Divorce Law, Mortgage Lending, Sales, Budgeting, Customer Service, Contractors, and Nonprofit Management.Three Things You'll Learn in This EpisodeHow to use video when you're new to an areaThe wonders of consistencyCreating a sphere of influenceResourcesLearn more about Stan Hartzheim Real Estate Marketing DudeThe Listing Advocate (Earn more listings!)REMD on YouTubeREMD on InstagramStan's Contact Information: (720)883-8452Stan@dblhloans.comTranscript:So how do you track new business? You constantly don't have to chase it. Hi, I'm Mike Cuevas a real estate marketing dude. And this podcast is all about building a strong personal brand people have come to know, like trust and most importantly, refer. But remember, it is not their job to remember what you do for a living. It's your job to remind them. Let's get startedWhat's up ladies and gentlemen, welcome another episode of the real estate marketing dude podcast. What we're doing today, folks, is we have somebody in studio, we're not in studio on Zoom.That just started doing video maybe three, four months ago, consistently. And he's done it in an area that let's just say most people aren't doing video. And because he was sort of sticking out like a sore thumb, he started just like, shot right up. This is somebody one of the questions we get is like, how do I use video if I'm going into a new market? Well, we're going to show you that's exactly what we're doing here. Before I introduce our guests today, we're gonna discuss like what his journey was. But more importantly, this is a mortgage brokers isn't a real estate agent. It's a mortgage broker, who for the last X amount of years worked primarily in the Denver market, Denver, Colorado, just recently has relocated moved over to just north of where he's at into Cheyenne, Wyoming, and now is building his brand within the Cheyenne Wyoming market and seen and trying to almost like starting over again, right? He's got to create new realtor relationships, you got to create a new sphere of influence, doesn't mean he's not doing business in Denver, but he just starts he knows he needs to start building his brand there as well. So we're gonna share his story see exactly sort of how it works with the man Stan right here. And without further ado, we're gonna introduce Stan the Man to the show. Stan, how are you today, sir? I'm doing great, Mike. Thanks for having me on. Why don't you just do a quick intro to everybody first last name what you've been doing for the last 20 years of your life? And who the hell are you?Yeah, so my name is Stan hearts I'm I run a team called wh Home Loans team with a company out of Dallas, Texas called southwest funding. And I've been in the mortgage business since 2017. kind of creeping up on people, like you said down in the Denver market and building my brand down there building out a little bit of a team have our operations staff still in an office down in Aurora, Colorado,had an opportunity to move up to the wide open spaces, just outside of Cheyenne, Wyoming on a little ranch yet, and man couldn't couldn't be happier. We got 10 acres of land, got a beautiful, sprawling ranch house and a lot of wind, wind. And your and you guys were just you're just moving mainly for lifestyle, right? You just want to get more space. But you're got obviously you're gonna bring your mortgage business up there. And what were one of your biggest concerns you had before going into a new market?You know, I think like, look like anybody when you're starting out in the new market. It's like starting out a new business. And so there's some trepidation of how do I grow that business? How do I grow the brand? I think my biggest fear, however, knowing that Cheyenne was a little bit of a smaller town than Denver, obviously was, I grew up in a small town. So I kind of get it. There's some relationships there that have been going on since you know, elementary school or middle school. And when you come into that new market, how do you win over that business? You're anytime you build a business, you're stepping into relationship with people, and sometimes that means stepping between them in their existing relationship? I'm hate to say it, but that's the reality. And how do you do that? If somebody has been friends since middle school? Right. So that was kind of my challenge coming into a smaller market? Yeah, that makes I mean, that's pretty much with everybody. We get a lot of people that hey, I'm in a new market. I don't have a spare because I don't have that will video work. We will be anywhere from you there. So Stan has been Stan is in full disclosure stands one of our clients, and we want to share a story becauseStan started doing video about four months ago, I believe right about now and you just recently got we're not like creating 30 videos a month, right? We're just doing two videos, keeping it simple. But you just recently got picked up from the new station. I hear. Tell me about that.Well,it's been a variety of things have happened in the last few months. We started doing these videos, not not mortgage related. I talked about mortgages all stinking day long. So I thought it'd be a lot of fun to share my journey of learning about Cheyenne and the surrounding state of Wyoming with as many people as I could. Right away when I got here I found out that thisCities a little misunderstood. It's it's not just cowboys. Andyou know, it's there's a lot I guess I'll let me rephrase that there's a lot to do here, a lot of people don't realize it's very beautiful, it's close to the mountains, just like Denver is are on the other side of the mountain Salt Lake City. And we wanted to just kind of spread the word like this is a growing community that has a great infrastructure and a lot of really friendly people. So we started doing videos just to capture our journey around town. You know, as we met, people are winning and visited establishments, learned about the neighborhoods kind of started to zero in on where we wanted to live. We thought why not record this and have Mike and his team make it look good for us. The name of the show is actually in Stan's model like we had to. And I almost did the same thing. And I wish I would have I'm doing it now. But five years ago, and I moved to San Diego, I didn't know if I was going to sell real estate, I didn't know what the hell is gonna happen. I was literally starting over a brand new career in foreign land, foreign territory, I didn't know what the hell was going to happen. I didn't want to sell real estate. But I did have in the back of my mind that if I was the only story I'd be able to tell would be that of a transplant. And at that time, I was going to create a show called San Diego transplant and I was gonna do was just still myself being a tourist, you know, and just discovering while I learned the city, which is what Stan is doing right now. So in his case, we ended up building a show called why not? Like why not Wyoming? And it all ties in with the branding and on that, but Stan's not talking about mortgages on these videos, are you? Well, not yet. I try to avoid it.You know, I love that we came up with the name, why not? I don't know if the listeners will be able to tell. But I got a fairly dry sense of humor. And using that reverse psychology works really well. For me, I think it becomes a little bit of a funnier thing. But yeah, we try to avoid talking about mortgages, we'll do a bunch of stuff that is mortgage related.You know, what is interest rates and PMI, and so on. We teach classes up here in town, and we'll probably record some of those and get you guys to edit it. You know, it's been a lot of fun where we've caught on, like you mentioned, the news stations have have reached out to us. There's there's two big companies that run before local news stations. And they've been reaching out and asking us, hey, you know, do you want to get on our show? Do you want to advertise with us? You know, you seem like you're doing pretty good with video. The other thing that's happened that kind of came out of left field for me, because I don't think I'm some sort of trending superstar. Butyou are, oh, all of a sudden, like people are like, Hey YouTube guy, would you do our product? Would you do this or that we'll you know, we'll give you a free product, we'll we'll sponsor this or that. I didn't see that coming in a million years, I'll be honest. So that's been kind of fun and interesting to see the variety of people that are interested in what we have to say. And you're coming from a position of value. And that's what like, I think a lot of times, and maybe even now you're starting to see it. But before we even started doing this, I don't know if you'd call this conversation. Like we don't have to talk about mortgages. And as a matter of fact, and last, we talked about mortgages and more attention you're gonna get, because when you when you guys start creating videos, you start creating content, what you're really doing is you're just creating conversations, you cannot create conversations without creating content first, right. AndI want to give you guys a different analogy, especially for all your mortgage brokers out there, or even brokerage owners. And this is what this should click because a lot of times, like Mike, I just don't get it. I don't get how me doing a video on a business or me doing a neighborhood tour, this can lead the business, and I'm going to share with you how. So let's get out of the real estate business Dan, and I'm going to share with youa very important lesson I learned from taking one of the Digital Marketer courses, so I gotta give credit where credit's due. I started studying Ryan Deiss Digital Marketer, which is a very high end, or very advanced called Digital Marketing Company. They are the guys that do traffic and conversion and all these other things. Long story short, I'll never forget this. And this is the way my mind works because of one of the I don't know where I saw this was one of the training courses I bought, I was taking one of the lessons. And Ryan Deiss who's one of the CO owners of the company, back in the day before they became all famous and all that they had to they were just an online digital marketer company, right. And they brought on a roofing client, the roofing client at the time. And in Texas. How long do you think a roof lasts in a house in Texas thenI have to guess it lasts a while 2025 the severe weather that we have up here that's for sure. 2025 years, which means that the person that they sell their roof to either most likely transacts the house or dies before they need a new roof which means there is no repeat business. Right? It's not and it's not in that type of business. It's not like you get a ton of referrals. Like it's not like roofers are like through show me a roofer. It's sort of like a plumber, right? You're like hey, can plumber he's a plumber is an electrician, nothing bad about that. But I'm just saying it's not like a super duper, duper highly referral business where everyone's like, Oh, sending the roofer business. Sowhen you need them, you just need them when you need them. Right and you don't really have any loyalty towards a person that doesn't maybe you know someone maybe you don't, but it's almost like a guyHello page type business you thought you sir, find the first company you see, and that sounds good, and then you roll with it. So the point is, is that they had to come up with a marketing plan online for this company. And here's what they ended up doing. So they knew they had to go a roundabout way and think outside the box. What they did was they created a gutter cleaning service. And in the gutter cleaning service, let's just say the going rates were $99 to get your gutters clean, they charged 25 except all their gutter cleaners were experts at identifying roofing issues.What do you think happened next in?Well, I can imagine they started to identify a lot of faulty roofs or roofs with problems on a percent of their sales went through the roof, but they had to create a gutter cleaning service to identify the roof issues, right. So they had the forward thing. See when I'm looking at a lender, in your case, having video that's exactly what it is. The video is your gutter cleaning service to start having more conversations. This is true for a broker owner that's trying to recruit this is true for a lender that's trying to build more relationships. This is true for anybody. See, what we're doing is we're not creating content and videos to sell our shit. We're creating, we're creating content and videos to have more conversations to build trust that will eventually lead to us selling our shit.Right? And that's just that's just the reality of it. Right? And I want you Let's go through sort of what's happening in your market because I wanted to have you on the show. Becausewhen you have the opportunity to do something different and stick out or stand out. That's the Holy Grail. Everyone's always asking us, okay, I want to get leads. I want to get this. I want to get that, folks. Warren Buffett once famously said, when zig zag or they zag Zig. That's exactly what this business is. Because everyone can trip over a mortgage broker on the street, everyone could trip over a real estate agent on the street. And what really makes someone hire you9.9 times out of 10 it's brand and personal relationship. And if they envision themselves to working with you, would you agree with that, Stan? Yeah, I agree. And I think that is the great unknown about video. I didn't certainly know that even six or eight months ago, how much people get to know you through that video exposure. I mean, people, people walk up to me now, like, they've known me for years. And maybe I've met him once before, maybe I haven't. So the other thing that happens, just intuitively, I at least for me, as I started to create things that I say kind of routinely as part of my video making process, right and, and we went on a road trip, I decided that the best way for me to do these tours, especially in a great big state, like Wyoming was a road trip around. And so I started just telling people in my video just kind of just naturally Hey, jump in the car, let's go we're going on a trip, you know, and now it just opens up like a crazy funny line when I bumped into someone at a coffee house, Hey, come on up. And let's go we're going for a ride, you know, like, let's talk for a minute. And it just kind of it transitioned from video to real life really intuitively. What happened? The smaller the town, the easier it is, believe it or not, because think about it, like you come to San Diego is a lot of people are doing video you go to Chicago, New York or a major city. And then you're not so much you don't have as much attention on there. Even though there's more people, even those a bigger population. But you don't have as much attention because you're just one of many. Whereas in Cheyenne, you're one of only how many other mortgage brokers in the Cheyenne market are doing video.You know, there's a few people doing some real short, you know, the short, short recordings or whatever that they throw on Facebook, or maybe you know, some some reels kind of stuff, but I don't think anybody's doing YouTube. There's one real estate agent that is doing some YouTube stuff, but it's negligible. So you gotta go way up north, there's a there's a Gallup north, it's doing a really good job with YouTube videos and short, short shorts, recordings. But that's it. I mean, in the whole state, there's like two of us. That's why you got the news.I love it. So why don't you share with everybody, you know, are you nervous when you got started? What did you think, like, come through that because most people are usually like, hey, I want to do it. But everyone wants to just be done with it. But very few people actually will take action and go through and actually do it. I never understood why.But my gosh, Mike i i can tell you exactly why. You know, it started out with this goes back years. I'll be honest, this goes back to one of my first jobs when I had to do some phone, some phone work. I worked for a large hospital in Colorado, and I had to do some phone work and I'd always think Man, I hate the way I sound on the phone. And someone told me you know what, whatever you sound like is what you sound like you talk all the dang time you never shut up. So just get over it right and then I started to contemplate doing videosLast year and I'm like, Man, I got a face for radio bro. I don't know if I should be doing these videos and then people are like, whatever you look however you look man, you just, you know, you walk around all day you're not hiding under a rug. So get out there and do it. That was it. And and then the follow up to that it's just, you know, scripting like, do I am I gonna sound like a robot? Or am I gonna sound natural, I'm gonna look natural. How's this gonna come together? And I would say the first couple of videos were pretty brutal. I'm not gonna lie. I won't sugarcoat it. I stumbled over the lines, I think we recorded you know, the first one was a eight minute video, I think we recorded an hour and 20 minutes worth of stuff and just kept kind of getting through it. It wasn't, it wasn't embarrassing, because I knew somebody was going to clean it up first, I guess. But it was it was kind of brutal. But after that one, I would say literally, the very next video got 100 times easier. And then from there, they've gotten easier and easier. I still feel like I tried to read the script, or I tried to, you know, make it real polished or professional. And I'm getting over that, you know, I,you know, maybe your listeners will go check out my channel, we just did a brutal, brutal, brutal pub tour. And there was no scripting like, I'm like, Okay, I'm gonna go visit these 13 places, I'm probably going to get drunk while I do it. And I'm gonna have to try all this stuff that I learned about each of these stops, because I'm doing a little history tour with it. And you know, my brand has to teach people something. So I might as well tell them about these breweries. And you know, by the time we got to the end, did I drop an F bomb? Yeah, I did.I did, and that others did a great job of leaving it in there for me. So that was fun.You just got to have fun with it. And you know, that's what I'm learning and the nerves will go away. Have you ever, like hung out with somebody that you just can't be yourself around?A couple times, I got a brother in law thatwas trying to impress him, right. So I tried to live live large, and it's just, it's uncomfortable. You know what I mean? It's, it's no differently like that on video. Like, when you're creating content, you're just speaking to one person at a time. And you're right, like, you should I always tell people, you can't be nervous about the act of shooting video. Because if you are, why you're you control it, like you could just delete it or not post that video or not do it, you can just reshoot it, right? So the whole act of of shooting and and all that stuff is just mindset. None of this stuff is hard. Like if you truly, and I always say this on the show is like if you surely believe you're the right person for the job, whether you're a lender or a real estate agent, it actually becomes your obligation to let the world know about it. And if not, that's very selfish and shady. And if you don't agree with that, then you're not the right person for the job. So there's either one or the other. There's no in between on this. So you have to really look at that for yourselves. And everyone always says I'm the right person for the job. Well, if you're the right person for the job, why the hell are you so scared to tell the world about it? That's when it comes down to you guys. And it's not that creating content or video and all that stuff is hard. It's just something you're not used to. But I'm gonna go on a limb and stand Do you remember your first loan application? Or actually, let's do your first million dollar loan application. Within the first year or two? Were you fucking nervous?I can remember doing both. My first loan application was was utterly ridiculous in the in the day and age of technology.I wanted to be that personal touch right? So I grabbed my old paper 1003 and ran over to the people's house and wrote down all the information and I was nervous as heck. And I thought, Geez, what if I forget some piece of pertinent information? Or what if I don't, you know, get this right or I don't explain something right. And then I realized when I got back to the office, that that was the stupidest thing to be worried about, because it was a simple phone call to get the rest of the information that I maybe forgot like this. That's how I feel about video and just you maybe you do record, you know, rerecord it or you delete something and start over, but it's not the end of the world if it's not perfect on the first try. And that's kind of how that loan application when I remember the first time my first time I had showings, I was 22 years old, and I got the client from cold calling. So I would just do whatever it took back then. But I was working in the city of Chicago, I just moved back up from Carbondale where I went to college and I didn't know my way around the city of Chicago. So and we didn't have at that time we didn't have phones that had Mapquest on him. We had to go to Mapquest online and then print out the instructions, and then print this shit out. Like I would have outside brains, I would bring the Mapquest and I'd have a sheet of paper like this. And if we're looking at six properties, I would have six sheets of paper, I'd have the listing sheet on top and then beneath it would be the Mapquest instruction because I had no fucking idea where it's going. And I had to go out there and fake it till you make it with these clients. So like so what's this neighborhood like? I'm like a. And as a matter of fact, the day before the showings, I went out and I drove the route, just so I didn't look like an idiot with them in the car with me.Right and you had this is like the type of stuff that I didn't like seeoften be like, Hey, I'm not gonna go any showings because I don't know what the neighborhood is, which is no differently. So I'm not going to shoot this video because I don't know what I'm going to look like. Like folks get over yourself. No one is. And we're not that important, like, I'm not that important stands out to important, the only one who thinks that we're that important ourselves. That's right. And I think that's true as so many things, Mike, you know, we started teaching these classes in front of rooms full of people, and I can tell you even now I get nervous before we're going to go do it. But for me to sit back and say, No way, I'm too afraid I'm not going to do it. The only person I'm hurting is myself, I'm just shoot yourself in the foot with that mentality. So you know, get out of your comfort zone and go do something new. So let's, let's go into your video strategy. Totally agree. So when we started out with Stan, he started out doing a lot of stuff. Like there's different types of content you could create for different reasons. When we saw standard channel, or we're standing the opportunity, we just know that there's no one else in Cheyenne doing enchance, a big city, relatively speaking to the area, it's a city, right, any city gets searched on YouTube. And because Dan was the first one there, that's why we're able to pop his channel and say, pop his channel, he's generating lots of 1000s of views on the videos. And that's what led to him getting picked up by the news and all that stuff. But now that you've built out the channel, and you have that street club, the video that he was doing, he's referencing here is really funny. It was about what, eight minutes long, nine minutes long, give or take. Yeah. And the longer you did, you did a brew tour on site. So you guys had like the city was putting on like a Abreu history tour. Right. So I'm curious, because I haven't talked to you about this. But what people don't realize is the act of shooting, the video turns into relationship building itself, as well as other additional content you could be doing on stories and all this other stuff. So I'm curious to know, like, you're walking around on this tour, how many people were on the tour?You know, it didn't really have like a point, a starting point, you know, and then get to the end line, it was kind of jump in the middle, you know, go at your own pace sort of thing. So, I mean, there were, I don't know, hundreds of people doing the tour, but there wasn't a group of 100 are going from place to place to place, right. So and some people are going backwards to the direction we were going. So we kind of kept bumping into a few people here and there that we'd see over and over at different stops. But yeah, so it was a little bit unique in that way, just because everybody was kind of doing their own thing. How many conversations did just the fact that you had a video camera in your tripod with you start throughout the day? Oh, I mean, we had 13 stops, there had to been 40 kind of I mean, it was three at every every stop probably. And, you know, a half a dozen of those 40 or so conversations were probably people like oh, no, don't get me on camera. And I'm like, don't worry about it. You're gonna be on camera? Yeah.Then I'll get input when you're having a conversation. So what are you doing these videos for? What are you doing this for? And then he's creating an excuse to start? Well, I'm actually a mortgage broker. And what we do is we go around here and you have that conversation, which is totally different than just going up and be like, Hey, do you need a loan? Oh, by the way, my name is Stan. That's like asking a girl to get in the bed the first time you meet them, guys. This is not what you do. Right? You don't you can't just ask for business. Before you even know someone, you have to earn it.And you only earn it came out of that too is meeting meeting people and having those conversations but then also meeting either the management or owners of the establishments we were at everybody was jazzed, right? Like they're like, hey, when you know, When can you come back and let's talk more about my business. I'm like, I'd love to come back and talk more about your business. That was a really powerful part of that tour as well. So I was going right there. Perfect. So like what we should do, we'll just turn this into a coaching session, as long as we're here. What I want you to do and what you should do now is that yes, you had 10 bars, okay, now you could go to all 10 of those bars and do a business owner interview on them that gives you 10 More videos to do. See what's going to happen on the business owner interviews is that those owners are going to share that video around with their friends, family, aunts and uncles and all of those owners lips somewhere. All of those owners have a referral for Stan over the next 12 months. It's just a matter of if they're gonna give it to him. We've seen a guy this is a funny story status is funny. This is what happens with business owner interviews. So we have a dude in Northwest Arkansas and he went out and he did this business owner interview for some kind of like it was in their market it was like the new swanky hotspot right? This dude sort of The Bachelor so he was taking a chick there on a date and he went there on it he takes his girl on a date after he did the business owner interview with the owner right so here he comes he's got it he's got this girl on his on his arm he's trying to he's trying to impress her and all that pulls up to the restaurant the owner steps aside everybody come here come here I got the best table in the whole restaurant for you right here you got the perfect view brings them a bottle of wine on the house and all that the chicks like holy shit, this guy was this guy. And this is what's funny about the story is the guy goes you know later on and they start doing business together. And and he goes like this he goes seeI'd like to say something because Hey, Jay,it's funny that, you know, my wife's cousin is a real estate agent. And, you know, traditionally we're always using her, but you are now my real estate agent now. Right? So he literally, we're just talking about how do you step over prior relationships, and you do it through adding value to other people's lives, you guys know, right. And there's just so much leverage. With video, you can do that. If you're in a market like that, just imagine going out and networking with all the different businesses in that market and let them sell your stuff, right. But you have to give to receive, you should always try to give it's written in the Bible, those who give, give, give, give, get it in return in some way, shape, or form. It's just the way we're supposed to be, in my opinion. Unfortunately, a lot of us always have our hands out.And when we have our hands out, nothing really lands in them to do that. That's right. So I want you guys to think about coming from a value or if you're thinking about video come from a position of value and contribution as opposed to because it's not about the content that you're creating. It's not about what you're doing on video, it's about how you're doing it. And how you're leveraging it. Tell me really quick as a prior to Denver, what are your ratios? versus how much of your business comes from real estate agents? How much your business comes from your own sphere of influence? Where does most of you originate from? And what would you say your largest sources are, um, you know, Don, in our Denver market, I was I was pretty blessed to get in early in my career with a bunch of doctors, nurses and surgeons, and surgical techs. So I got a lot of business out of the hospital environment. Wellness, I'll get into why, but that just I fell into the right niche. And so I was really fortunate to be able to start building up my business by giving out referrals, I wasn't necessarily hounding real estate agents for their referrals, as much as I was saying, Hey, do you want to partner up? You know, I might, I might not give you as many as you give me or, or maybe I will, who knows. So I would say my business down there over the last, you know, five years or four years that I was in that market has been 60%, self generated 40% referrals, and of those referrals, you know, 3030 35% Of that number, that total number was from real estate agents. So we did pretty well within that niche. Up here in Cheyenne, it's a little different. Everybody starts out at the real estate agent level.It feels like I mean, I'm still getting another lay of the land. We've only been up here since December. Butthe banking industry is very strong here, right? A small town people are familiar with their bank, they've been banking there for a long time. So we have to overcome the stigma of going outside of the bank for a mortgage, and the relationship that that person then might have with their real estate agent friend that they've known since they were 12.You know, we we've really, I spent a lot of time last year, you'll remember some conversations, my eyebrows, like what does it mean to brand yourself like I have a logo was that my brand, like trying to make a brand. And what I found out is when we created this show, in large part thanks to you, Mike, you got me off of that topic and said, hey, it doesn't matter what that branding piece looks like that logo, you have a brand that fits your personality and who you are. And what I realized, that I love doing was teaching people stuff. And that's how the whole video series has come together, we were taking people on a ride to teach them about our local area about a local business. And that has translated from the show being called Why not Wyoming to why not university right? We got why not you and we're doing these whole series of classes around town. And when I go talk to the Board of Realtors, it's it's really interesting people know that I am there when I stand up to talk, I'm going to tell them about some new educational opportunity that's going to grow their business. Yeah, and that has been our value add that I don't think I would have put my finger on without you kind of steering my show in a direction and then allowing my personality to come out. If I was just doing mortgage related content. I just be up there droning on and on. Most peoplewhether regardless of what business you're in, even me like I'll do a video on how to do video. It's the least engaged stuff I post I swear, like and it'll be really good content. It's like our training content. Like I'll do a video on how to script a video through story. And that'll be you're gonna copy all great video good video, but truth is, is that that doesn't generate a shitload of views and attention a lot of times, same with real estate. However, I do create a lot of it because there's different content for different reasons. You see, like if you guys want to go to my website, you can go to www dot real estate marketing do.com And what you're gonna see on the website is a bunch of content. Every page on the site has a video and the reason why I created all thatstuff over the last five, six years is because when people visit our site, they're not questioning whether or not I know what I'm doing. It's sort of self evident. They're questioning how I'm doing it. And if they like me, Can you envision yourself working with a dude? Can you not envision yourself working with a dude? And truth as you guys get my personality, if you listen to my show, you know, I'm not the most perfect human being I sit every day. However, I'm 100% authentic. And what what what people really want is just a trust, and you cannot outsource authenticity, you cannot.You just can't do it. And when people I believe when people look at a lender, or an agent, or financial planner, or anybody, the first thing that comes through their mind, and people always say you don't judge a book by its cover, you're shady. If you do that, well, I'm sorry, that's just the way God made you. Everyone's going to judge a book by its cover. It's just the way that it is guys. Right? That's just the reality of it. And when you look at somebody, I could like, look at somebody, like, I could tell I'm gonna get along with that guy. Right? You get that same feeling, right? I could, I've liked that person's Mojo, I'm gonna, I'm gonna I want to drink a beer with that guy, I want to hang out with a guy. You just know who your tribe is. There's a reason why elephants hang out with elephants. Like I've never seen an elephant and a cat hanging out and watching a movie together. It's because we're naturally attracted to people that are like us, whether way way shape or form they may be there might be personality that might be erased, that might be in skin color that might be in whatever it is. But whatever it is, understand that you're the only one like it out there. And when you embrace your own individuality, and your uniqueness and your authenticity, and you scream it from the rooftops, and you're damn proud about it, that's what people are attracted to. No differently than what Stan is doing now and Wyoming no differently than what I've done on the show for the last six years. Some people are gonna like it. A lot of people aren't.I love when a lot of people aren't, because if you don't have haters on your shit, you're not doing it right. You're not meant to be perfect. It doesn't exist. God's the only perfect beam that exists in the world. And you're not him. Don't even try to compete. What you can do is embrace what you are, whom you are, how you do it, and scream that from the rooftops. And I believe that you'll be rewarded through people just like you because that's who you will track. There's not a shortage of business.There is everyone I look everyone I look at, like literally, everyone lives somewhere unless I check.So it's not a matter of if they're going to move, it's really a matter of when they're gonna move folks. Statistically, in Chicago, when I was practicing in the city was three to five years in the suburbs was four to seven. I knew my numbers because I knew if I just stayed in front of people, everything we're talking about when it comes to branding, content creation, the more people who know what you are, the more opportunities that open up. But it is mathematical not theory.If 100 people see your content, 10 to 15 of them are moving this year.The question is, are they going to use you when they do?The more you're on top of mind, the more likely that happens? Right? So this isn't rocket science. This is relationship building.This is leveraging content. And this is all based upon your personal brand.Stan, what are you going to do with? Have you tried any events with real estate agents yet on the video stuff, if you taught a I think your next move is a teacher scripting class, you have the social St Cloud scribe to do it now. And you could literally just launch an education series towards real estate agents. You could partner with real estate agents and do different neighborhood tours. You could partner with real estate agents and do different construction tours. Because you're not a real estate agent. Your job is not to sell those properties. It's their job. But you still share the same client.Yeah, I think some or all of that is in the works. You know, we we launched our educational series for real estate agents. In fact, we're doing a class this evening. It's going to be tailored at mortgages, mortgage one on one workshop, because we had to start somewhere. I would love to start at the beginning of the year. And then goal planning and you know, Vision boarding and all kinds of fun, cool, ethereal stuff like that. But here we are in May. So we thought we're gonna start with some mortgage stuff. So people remember what we do. And then next month, we've already announced our June class is going to be on social media and some video stuff. So exactly what you said. But we have been reaching out to there's a few people that like I said, are doing some of the short, you know, forum video stuff that have been doing some neighborhood tours, we want to put that on steroids. So I've been reaching out to them because they're already fairly comfortable with that given area or that neighborhood. So we're gonna go back and kind of recreate some of their neighborhood tours, but we're gonna put it on steroids with a little more viewership. You know, a little bit better quality, so on and so forth. And thenyeah, just continuing to do what we do with the business owners. I think that's that's really our kind of our strategy for the next you know, two to three months is continue getting these videos, these people on video that are owning businesses. You know, like you mentioned earlier, when youWhen you do an interview of the business owner, they let you, you know, take them in or they share it or whatever I found even on our on our beer tour, I asked every single manager of every, every all 13 places we went, I was like, Hey, do you mind if I share this, like, I'm gonna take you in this? And they were like, Yeah, that's fine. But what I found is you can't always take a business page, but you can check in at their location, which achieves kind of the same results. So I just, I'm gonna go back. And you know, we've already pushed that video out, but I'm gonna go back and repost it and just check myself in at these various different locations, even with the video we already have created, and then that way, they'll get a double dose when we go back and do their interview. So yep, I would go, definitely, I would go back and think of diners, drives and drives, but recreate that for Cheyenne, and hit up all these different pubs and bars. And I bet you that well, I mean, I know what's gonna happen, but do it. And then maybe we'll have you back on the show. And you can tell people what happened. We Awesome. Hey, I wanted to say one other thing when you were talking about not being perfect, too.You know, what a true statement. And And yet, the imperfections are the things that people are drawn to quite often. When I look at the commentary that comes through my videos, it's, it's funny how often somebody, you know, it's easy to get defensive. And so I'll read a comment where somebody's like, Hey, you didn't pronounce that, right? That's not how we say that, or whatever. And I could be like, hey, what a jerk. Why are you all up in my grill over this? I didn't even know like I say in the in the video I'm visiting, how the heck did I know that? But instead, I'm like, hey, thanks so much for educating me. That is awesome. Man, I will absolutely remember that now for the rest of my life, you know? And if you take that approach that yeah, we're not perfect. And people are going to call you out for that. But it was that that even got the engagement started. And if you don't get defensive, and you just stick with the engagement, man, all of a sudden, you're having three or four more conversations that you wouldn't have had otherwise, you know, if everything had gone perfectly, so embrace those imperfections. That's a great point, I think Jay Baer wrote a book called Hug Your Haters, addressing how to hug on haters, and then how you flip those into, you know, conversion, because you'll be amazed a lot of people will go out there and yeah, they'll hate and then you'll just address it. And then they'll before you know it, they'll be you guys will be best friends. Right? You'll just see some of those people you get, you will get some keyword keyboard warriors out there, no doubt. But that's good. Like, there's everybody who said the same, but there's no such any PR is good PR year and all the time. And who cares? If people are talking, then it's working. That's all that matters. So any other closing thoughts, Dan, that you have any tips for people advice for people, I think you want to mention, I will just go back to where I started, which is what my mentors told me your voice is, you know what it is you sound how you sound and you look how you look. And unless you're living under a rug. Don't be afraid to put that on a recording or on a video because it is who you are. And the more you act like who you are, the better the results are going to be. Love it. Stan, if you folks are in the Wyoming area, but you're licensed in other states to maybe an agent wants to reach out to you or something. Why don't you go ahead and tell people how they can reach you, they could connect with you go ahead and tell them what channel you have. And they could follow you on there if they want to check out some of your content.For comment, yeah, for sure. If you want to see the comment, it's why not? Wyoming wy And O T question mark, Wyoming. That's our YouTube channel, we are@www.db l h loans.com. That's our website. And you can always call me direct. If you have any questions about how to implement some of this stuff or what my experience has been. I'd love to answer it. 720-883-8452 Appreciate it. Stan. Keep it up, dude. Stay the course excited to see what happens in the next three to six months with this. You're doing everything right. Just keep doing it. Folks, thank you. And don't you stop listening to this podcast if folks if you need any help. And you like what you heard here today on Stan story, feel free to reach out to us. We'd like partnering with different mortgage brokers, investors, lenders, real estate agents, broker owners, recruiters, you name it in their local markets. And this is all we do. We script that and distribute videos but more importantly, we give you the right strategy that should fit your brand so that you're actually not looking awkward on video you're actually excited to get on video and that all dials and dials in with the picking up the right strategy, which is my expertise. So appreciate guys listening. Feel free to reach us you can visit real estate marketing do.com Real Estate market.com leave us a review here connect with me on Facebook, Instagram and check out our channel real estate marketing do it on YouTube. And so make sure you subscribe but we will see you guys next week. Have a great day. Stan, thank you so much. And we'll talk to you guys next week. Bye. Thank you for watching another episode of the real estate marketing dude podcast. If you need help with video or finding out what your brand is, visit our website at WWW dot real estate marketing do.com We make branding and video content creationSimple and do everything for you. So if you have any additional questions, visit the site, download the training, and then schedule time to speak with a dude and get you rolling in your local marketplace. Thanks for watching another episode of the podcast. We'll see you next time.

Mornings with Coach On Demand
Statistically, Padres offense was not great on the road trip

Mornings with Coach On Demand

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2022 45:28


Rent Perfect with David Pickron
Ep. 65 Protecting Yourself From Fraud is This Easy

Rent Perfect with David Pickron

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2022 13:36


Statistically fraud is on the rise and landlords, whose information is all over the web and on legal documents, are not immune from its effects.  Knowing ways to protect yourself and your information is critical in avoiding this growing epidemic.  To learn more about freezing your credit, please visit here:  https://www.experian.com/freeze/center.html

Braves Dugout
How much will Acuña coming back boost the Braves statistically, a break down.

Braves Dugout

Play Episode Listen Later May 5, 2022 30:41


In this episode we break down the numbers to show how much of a difference Acuña coming back will really make. We all know he is elite, but the numbers are insane. Let's break it down across offense, defense, and base running Don't forget to follow on Twitter @BravesDugoutPod, the Facebook page @BravesDugoutPodcast, Email business inquires to bravesdugout@gmail.com, check out the website https://bravesdugoutpod.wixsite.com/bravesdugoutpod, and check out the Facebook group Braves Dugout Podcast Group! --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/sam-peebles/support

City United Church Podcast
"Stressed and Emotional"

City United Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later May 1, 2022 35:14


We are living during stressful times. Statistically, stress levels in our culture and world are rising rapidly and people are at their breaking point. Understanding how to deal with the pressures and pivots of life can help us find rest over stress. Many people are longing for a more peaceful life, and they are doing whatever it takes to find it. In this collection, we will look at Psalm 23. This familiar Psalm shows us how to experience a peace-filled life in a stress-filled culture. “Come to me, all of you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” - Jesus, Matthew 11:28 This collection of talks will help you find rest from the daily stressors of your life.

The Sunday Session with Francesca Rudkin
Dr Michelle Dickinson: Very few pain studies have been done on women

The Sunday Session with Francesca Rudkin

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 30, 2022 5:07


Science has just found out that men and women experience pain differently. We can never fully know how somebody else experiences pain – especially when it's caused by something we'll never experience ourselves such as gendered pain like childbirth (or man flu). Now a new study published in the journal Brain – https://academic.oup.com/brain/advance-article/doi/10.1093/brain/awab408/6551129 – concludes that pain is not experienced by male and female bodies equally. Studies have found that women are more responsive to painful stimuli. Women are also much more likely to be impacted by chronic pain with women more likely than men to report back, neck and neuropathic pain. Statistically twice as many women report migraines and headaches. Interestingly when it comes to pain research, almost all of the research has been exclusively carried out on men (or male animals) meaning there is very little information out there that is gender representative. This study was unique in that it included the study of female humans as well as men looking specifically at the superficial dorsal horn. If you didn't know that you had a horn, you do now! It's a region on the outskirts of the gray matter inside your spinal cord. The researchers examined horn tissue that had been donated post-mortem and discovered that there was a difference in the way that the different genders responded to BDNF. BDNF is brain-derived neurotrophic factor and it plays an important role in pain processing, by amplifying pain signals in the short-term and reducing them in the long-term. The technical discovery was of a "pathological coupling between KCC2-dependent disinhibition and N-methyl-D-aspartate receptor (NMDAR) potentiation within superficial dorsal horn neurons was observed in male but not female rats" In short, male and female bodies process pain differently and it's hormonally (estrogen) mediated. They were able to prove this by removing the ovaries of the female rats in the study and found that the difference in pain signaling between the males and females disappeared. Not only does this open up new research into how pain medication should be prescribed (especially as most pain medication trials are carried out on men) but also helps with the understanding of how to help treat chronic pain. Dr Michelle Dickinson, Nanogirl, joined Francesca Rudkin. LISTEN ABOVE 

Free From Wall Street
Wall Street vs. Real Estate with Kris Krauszer

Free From Wall Street

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2022 42:44


Any investment has risks, but you look at the factors when you underwrite. With his most recent shift from the financial services to the real estate industry, Kris Krauszer tells us the pros and cons of both sectors, broad aspects of commercial real estate, asset diversification, and strategies to rule out emotions in the investing game. This episode is worth listening to! Key takeaways to listen for 12:13 How to deal with client's e motions in wealth management 16:13 The risks of “selling away” in financial services vs. commercial real estate 26:18 Advantages of investing in commercial real estate 37:00 Statistically, what is the general consensus in the industry? 44:06 Tax advantages in the real estate business Resources mentioned in this episode 01:58 Fidelity Investments 22:07 The 2007–2008 Financial Crisis 23:28 The Big Short 43:00 Tom River's Field of Dreams About Kris Krauszer Kris Krauszer is Integrity Holdings Group LLC's Director of Strategic Partnerships. After spending 23 years in the financial services industry as a Vice President-Wealth Management Advisor, where he built, implemented, and maintained comprehensive wealth and estate plans for ultra-high net worth clients and their families at one of the largest financial services firms in the world, Kris joined Integrity Holdings Group LLC in March of 2022. His primary focus with his clients during this time was to ensure the preservation of capital, growth of capital, and a smooth transfer of that capital from one generation to the next. Personally, Kris is an outdoorsman at heart. He enjoys snow skiing, surfing, fishing, boating, and coaching/playing lacrosse with his daughters, August (16) and Maggie (13). He grew up in New Jersey and worked at two prominent financial firms in New York City after college before moving to Florida in 2005 with his wife, Mary, whom he has been married to for the past 18 years. Kris and his family currently reside in Lake Mary, Florida, just outside Orlando, where they have lived for the past ten years. Connect with Kris Investor Club: IHG Investor Club LinkedIn: Kris Krauszer Connect with Us Want to learn more about real estate investing? Visit Integrity Holdings Group to sign up for our 7 Day Passive Real Estate Investing Course (it's free)!

Pricing College Podcast
Episode #0102 - Can a pricing IT tool fix B2B pricing

Pricing College Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 29, 2022 15:41


In today's episode, we discussed what are the pitfalls of seeking a pricing tool to run B2B pricing.   Notes on the time-stamped show:   [00:00] Introduction [01:06] Joanna argues that without a great pricing framework and architecture, businesses cannot expect optimal outcomes from automation. [03:31] The field of pricing have two approaches to technology. The first is revenue management systems, and the second is optimisation systems. [07:13] What processes do you need to set up in order to make the most out of these tools? [12:03] Aodhan talks about how important building a good value management system is before businesses can employ the appropriate computer systems. [13:58] Category management and pricing teams should work together to properly quantify value. At Taylor Wells, one question we get asked quite frequently, I suppose because we focus on the B2B and the B2C sectors, is what computer system, which IT system, which new fangled new technological approach will do the job for us, will really encapsulate our pricing strategy, and what should we implement. To some extent, the answer is not often what people want to hear. People, I think noticed in 2022, believe that machines can and should do most things for us, we're used to typing and google and then coming up with the answer. But, I think, when it comes to B2B, B2C pricing, tools have a real role but they will not replace the human touch.    Yeah. To put it simply, I think a lot of pricing systems they're great, if you got a great framework and architecture in place already, then you can automate that. But often, what they do is automate what you've got so if you look at it in the negative, you've got broken poor systems, you've got no price structure, you're discount levels are incorrect or you don't have any, you've got discretionary pricing, there are no price controls. Then really what's the point of getting a high powered pricing system to automate that, what you're just going to get is raw automated junk in the machine calculating incorrect and often cost-plus pricing very quickly. So, in a way, what happens next, what people do often is well they stood by that there is a system, a silver bullet to correct what is fundamentally a broken architecture. And often if you got a broken architecture, it's misaligned with a business module and operations. This and in a way indicates that there are some business strategy changes and operational changes that need to occur as well. But regardless, what happens is that maybe a senior executive, the CEO buys this new pricing system hoping that it is the silver bullet to correct everything, may misunderstand the initial sales pitch from the vendor of that machine. What happens then is the vendor comes in, plugs it together, they call it integration with your other systems, like your ERP. And they find that, yes, lo and behold the pricing architecture is broken too. So they work with the business strategy trying to correct that. But often, that leads to a very long drawn up process and very costly process for the business as these vendors are very expensive and end up staying there for many years and not really fixing the actual problem, and just automating it, fundamentally. Aodhan, what do you think?   I love the trends. I read an article once that humanity has not really moved on since the 1950s, nearly all the technologies that we have were existing in some format at that point. You know, jet airlines, motor cars, all that sort of stuff, antibiotics to a large extent. And all we've had really is computers and electronics in the last 20/30 years which have grown infinitely more powerful than they were even in the mid-80s. But the negative of this is that we've become so focused on big data, data analytics, statistical analysis, and the big data that the internet has given rise to. So if we look at the pricing world, we have two real approaches to technology in that aspect--in computer programs, we have really the revenue managements systems which are implemented in airlines and capacity-constrained businesses, such as hotels, tourism, cars. We've seen them try to be implemented in tool hiring less successfully. And then on the other end, you have what I would regard as growth from A/B testing, almost like a website optimisation system based on pricing such as Price Intelligently. There are two things both of these have in common. They have the ability to measure people coming to something and then the historical results of what happens. So you can show them a different pricing presentation, everything else is equal. Statistically then, you can draw conclusions as to prices that will optimise sales, decrease sales, etcetera. That's in the Price Intelligently on that aspect and then on the revenue management side, you know you're selling x number of seats, historically know on a Monday, x number of people, statistically will look at this category and then you can optimise the sales with statistical variants with the risk weighting, etcetera. You can be quite confident in that. What I would say, is that some big numbers when you have statistically valid samples. But when you're in a B2B environment, you're quoting, you're doing rendering, you're probably aren't into statistically valid numbers of things. The example I'd give is, you look at an auction business, you know you're selling a painting but you're not using a revenue management system to sell it and the reason is there are no statistically valid numbers behind that. And so in B2B and B2C pricing, when there's not so long line, it becomes more difficult. You will probably see it in a civil market where there's large footfall, where people are using cards, etcetera to come into the shop. You know what they're buying, you could measure aspects in that regard. There's that grey area where there is room for these optimisation techniques certainly. But when we're looking at more, for traditional B2B, you might be only working with 5 or 6 customers, you don't really know how many people are looking at you, you're not capturing the data as to how many people have asked about your pricing. In that instance, it's extremely difficult and you just aren't capturing the information to feed it into a system to be able to really use those for there to be authorisation approach or the revenue management optimisation either.   That's true and that's what I was referring to in terms of often that's a broken pricing architecture just because it doesn't happen in B2B very often doesn't mean it shouldn't happen. I agree with you in a sense, to make the most out of these tools, you have to set up these processes, measurements, and tracking prior to buying the actual to all make it worthwhile. But often, that particular piece of work is left because businesses in B2B believe that if they just buy the system then that will correct everything else. But it doesn't. So again, I agree with you in the sense that, the pricing system is very effective at doing good pricing analysis. It calculates accurately. However, what it doesn't do and what you need to do before buying this system is set up the business rules and parameters, the conditions and the scenarios that you want to test. And then use those analytics, so set up the ratios, the measurements, the tracking tools. This is all, I call a price architecture. And this really does take two years to do. Get that piece of work done before you buy the system. And if there's one thing that you should take away from this, is that don't go to the system first because it doesn't build your architecture. It doesn't give you the learning that you think it will right away. What they will say is, you need that all set up in the first place, you need the tracking tools, you need your ratios, you need your quote to book, how much of your revenue is contracted versus uncontracted, how many of your products are specific to customers--there's one to one pricing, how much of your revenue is uncontracted, so you have many price points in customers. Because then you'll have different ratios, and different trackings, so you'll know how to optimise different types of revenue groups. If you've got those answers and those things set up, yes automate but don't do it before because you really won't get the answers, just gobbled nonsense.   "If you can't measure you can't approve it." It's a famous mantra from some management gurus. But what I'd say is the closer your business is to commoditisation, the more likely you can capture statistically valid information, measurements, quotes to book, all those metrics that we discussed. You know when you're setting large numbers of products, this is just my viewpoint but when you get into more bespoke stuff, when you're probably dealing with fewer customers, potentially you have fewer competitors in the market, you're value adds or maybe less more to your business, whatever they could be. I personally think that the opportunity for the value of a good sales team in that instance, a good marketing team, a good pricing team, and the human element is more important. Even if you capture all that information, you go through that process, the information you capture in the past, if you're business is constantly evolving, constantly delivering new stuff, the product you give this year different to what you give last year. If the market has changed, and your product has improved, is the information from last year statistically valid? If we're talking about revenue management and the airline, you know flight into Chicago, from New York, for 9 o'clock on a Monday, excluding Covid of course, clearly, there are historical precedences that make sense. But if your product is different, if it has really changed, if it's new, in those instances, the statistical aspects offered decrease. I think a lot of it will come down to your valued management system, how you articulate that to your customers, and your ability to build a sort of network of facts. You'll get it into real complexity, and the more complex things get, it's much harder to put them into a cookie-cutter style system. So you need to be careful. What I would almost say, if you're focusing on being very driven by a system, you should build your value management to suit the system, rather than, which is what Joanna talked about, building your computer system to suit your value management system and strategy. Because the more complex and better your value management strategy is, potentially, the less likely an all-consuming computer system will suit you. Tools are really useful in small aspects from mechanising and automating stuff that humans are probably not best suited to do, to boring, monotonous work that could be done quickly. You know quoting, emailing, CRM systems. But sometimes we can lose track of what really important here.   Yeah, it reminds me of the client I'm working on at the moment. I'm working very closely with the category team to understand at the skew level the value of their product failure, and that really for the pricing people, they are looking pretty much at the attributes of the product. That's the first step, the second step looking at the value of those attributes in the eyes of the customers. That's a different type of cognition that a computer can never really capture and when you look at pricing systems, they just stop at that statistical analysis. They don't go into this cognition that I'm talking about. That real value-based perception and willingness to pay because it just simply can't. AI learns but it doesn't learn like and I have not to date seen a system that thinks in that way. So this is the value of having a great category management team working alongside pricing cause only together can you really unlock and quantify what value is. First, you've got to define it and then the pricing manager works then quantify that. And quantifying is a testing process. You start with your hypothesis, once you've unlocked the value and you've laid it out. But then you've gotta test it in a market and you have to look at price response and actual feedback from the customer. Again, different types of feedback, not just price response sensitivity, and elasticities, we're looking at the why as well as the what. So this is why a lot of AI just, can't do that sort of stuff for B2B businesses. But there are parts of B2B businesses, you know in terms of automating quoting tools but again, a quoting tool for B2B needs to be thought through first by people to make sure that it fits in with the business strategy. Okay, I think that's all I have to say but if you have any questions for either of us please feel free to reach out. I'm more happy to talk to you about that.   Yeah, listening to this podcast today, makes me feel like a lot from the industrial revolution so this weekend I'll be heading out with a baseball bat to smash up computers and machines. Join me if you feel free. Have a great weekend.    

Simple Kicking
Graham Gano, Kicker, New York Giants

Simple Kicking

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 28, 2022 33:53


Graham Gano is an NFL Kicker who had a breakout season for the New York Giants in 2020. A 13-year NFL veteran, Gano was signed as an undrafted free agent for the Baltimore Ravens in 2008 from Florida State after winning the 2008 Lou Groza Award. He competed against Steve Hauschka to replace Matt Stover, competing under Randy Brown. Gano's NFL career has made stops in the National Football League, the Baltimore Ravens, Washington Redskins, Carolina Panthers, New York Giants. Statistically 2020 and 2021 were some of his best seasons, as he converted his kicks within 3 feet of the center according to the Simple Kicking App. Santos credits punter Riley Dixon (Syracuse, Los Angeles Rams) who held for him. Please follow Graham Gano https://www.instagram.com/grahamgano9/ https://twitter.com/GrahamGano

Hope Church Nashville Podcast
Jesus and Rest (pt. 1)

Hope Church Nashville Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 25, 2022 35:07


Statistically speaking 6 out of every 10 people feel high levels of stress, accompanied by extreme fatigue, feeling out of control. The invitation by Jesus is to come and stop. But, how do we stop in the midst of work deadlines, family expectations, and the voice inside that says, "Keep going"? This week, we look at the ancient practice of "shabbat" and we explore how we can actually "stop" so that we don't collapse.Support the show (https://www.hopechurchnashville.com/give)

City United Church Podcast
"Stressed and Busy"

City United Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 24, 2022 34:26


We are living during stressful times. Statistically, stress levels in our culture and world are rising rapidly and people are at their breaking point. Understanding how to deal with the pressures and pivots of life can help us find rest over stress. Many people are longing for a more peaceful life, and they are doing whatever it takes to find it. In this collection, we will look at Psalm 23. This familiar Psalm shows us how to experience a peace-filled life in a stress-filled culture. “Come to me, all of you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” - Jesus, Matthew 11:28 This collection of talks will help you find rest from the daily stressors of your life.

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine
Rehab in Norway | Find, Research and Understand Rehab in Norway

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 18, 2022 7:45


Rehab in Norway https://www.worldsbest.rehab/norway/ https://www.worldsbest.rehab/no/norway/ https://www.worldsbest.rehab/no/ Norway is home to many hundreds of successful rehab treatment centers, spanning a range of budgets and treatment modality, from those traditionally employing the established 12-Step approach, through to those that take a more holistic and therapeutic approach to uncovering and treating the traumas associated with addiction and co-occurring mental health treatment. Norway Rehab   Understanding the Severity of Addiction in Norway   According to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), Addiction in Norway is diagnosed on a spectrum of eleven criteria, including:   Lack of control Desire to quit but unable Spending a lot of time trying to get the substance Cravings Lack of responsibility Problems with relationships Loss of interest Dangerous use Worsening situations Tolerance Withdrawal   The severity is determined by how many criteria you meet. For example, if two to three of the criteria apply to you, you would have a mild substance use disorder. But even if you have a mild diagnosis, you should still seek the help of qualified professionals. When to go to Rehab in Norway   Substance abuse and co-occurring mental health disorders are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths globally though when it comes to addiction it can prove very difficult to admit that a problem exists.   As a general guide, if substance abuse and addictive behaviors are causing a negative effect on any aspect of your life then it's time to consider a period of rehabilitation and recovery. If you're questioning whether you may need help in rehabilitating your life then it's very likely that you do, especially if your concerns are around alcohol, opioids or any other psychoactive substance. Inpatient vs Outpatient Rehab in Norway   After the decision has been made to undertake a period of rehabilitation one of the first decisions will be to choose between inpatient rehab or outpatient treatment. At Worlds Best Rehab we are firm advocates of inpatient treatment models, given the greater chance of long-term complete recovery.   Statistically, those choosing residential treatment in 48-day, 60-day or 90-day programs stand a greater chance of success long-term. The 28-day rehab model can also be successful although do remember that if the 28-days includes a period of medical detox then the total number of ‘therapeutic days' will be greatly reduced. For this very reason many rehabs in Norway have after care or secondary treatment options to assist a client reintegrate into their new life in recovery.   Alcohol and Substance abuse is one of the biggest killers in the World with nearly 3 million directly attributable deaths per year and countless more unattributed. Even with these facts it remains the one with the most stigma. Worlds Best Rehab is designed to help people make informed choices about high end treatment for recovery from a life threatening condition.   Norway Detox   Phase one of inpatient Norway rehab usually starts with detoxification and it's the detox phase of recovery that presents the most brutal physical symptoms of addiction. Detox can be undertaken in a medically supervised home detox environment though this must be under the guidance and direction of a Norway rehab physician.   A poorly managed detox can be fatal as the potentially life-threatening effects of suddenly quitting (withdrawing) from alcohol and substance abuse can be very severe.   For many people it is safest and preferable to detox under medical supervision in a Norway rehab facility.   Phases of Norway Rehab   After a successful detox, therapeutic efforts begin at the in earnest at the Norway rehab of choice to address the underlying symptoms and catalysts that lead to substance abuse and behavioral disorder. During inpatient Norway rehab this phase of recovery includes therapy, counseling, peer support and medical care if required.   Additionally, many holistic and nutritional therapies can be applied at this stage including nutritional rehabilitation, biochemical restoration, equine therapy, art therapy, yoga, exercise and a raft of local and international techniques.   Admissions Process for Norway Rehabs   There are many different pathways into rehab in Norway and we still believe that reaching out to rehabs and treatment centers directly is the best way.   You may be referred by your medical specialist or interventionist, but it pays to ask whether that physician or referrer will receive a commission for your admission. Be sure not to accept the first recommendation for a Rehab Facility in Norway and check our full list of handpicked and expertly vetted facilities in Norway.   From making the initial inquiry to a Norway Rehab our featured treatment centers will work with you to understand the nature of the client's condition and to assess whether their facility or treatment models are best suited to the individual needs and requirements. Often, a client will be based out of State or indeed internationally and the rehab team will work closely alongside other medical and sober transport agencies to ensure a safe and secure transport pathway to admission.   Cost of Rehab in Norway   Rehab in Norway can cost between $10,000 and $80,000+ per month depending on the individual rehab.   Outpatient Rehab Options in Norway   Outpatient treatment varies in length, depending on the specific needs of the patient and might require 13-26 hours of treatment participation per week and can last from 3 to 12 months. Outpatient treatment in Norway can be successful, of that there is no doubt. Though many patients need to draw upon huge reserves of self-motivation and self-discipline to fully recover. And during active addiction such reserves have generally been exhausted through the very cycle of addiction that leads a patient or their loved ones to consider rehab in Norway as the only option.   Dual Diagnosis Rehab in Norway   Dual diagnosis: In Norway, the term dual diagnosis refers to psychiatric disorder and addictive behavior. Dual diagnosis allows the treatment of co-occurring mental health issues alongside other individualized treatment methods.   Biochemical Restoration in Norway   Rehabs in Norway have embraced the importance of biochemical restoration over the past decade, in line with the general evolution of this dynamic approach to addiction treatment globally. Biochemical restoration in Norway analyses and treats the biochemical imbalances in the body that make a person more prone to addiction. Lab testing and blood work to identify biochemical imbalances such as hormone levels, neurotransmitters, amino acids and nutrient deficiencies while checking for the presence of heavy metals and toxicities.   Comparing the symptoms of nutritional deficiencies that were formed during addiction assists nutritional experts to identify which exact biochemical imbalances are triggering the addictive state, and to begin to restore the biochemistry of the body, over the course of treatment. Proper nutrition can often be the last piece of the puzzle that can make biochemical restoration successful for sobriety.   Secondary Rehab in Norway   Secondary care rehabs cement the life skills required for recovery over a far longer period than would traditionally be feasible in a primary care facility. These extended exposure and life skills geared programs enable clients to operate their day to day lives and remain in a constructive system over a long period of time, which is universally the key to a sustained recovery.

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine
Where do the wealthy in Tanzania go for Rehab Treatment?

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 6:56


Rehab in Tanzania   https://www.worldsbest.rehab/sw/tanzania/   https://www.worldsbest.rehab/tanzania/ Drug abuse is a major issue in Tanzania. In 2019, the drug control commission (which is dealing with drug abuse issues) reported that the number of people struggling with addiction issues ranges from 350,000 and 650,000. In Tanzania, there are numbers of rehab centers and sober living facilities in different regions, which provide treatment and consultation to individuals and families struggling with addiction.   Is there Luxury Rehab in Tanzania?   There are no luxury rehabs in Tanzania. For those that can afford the very best treatment Physis Recovery has been popular with UHNW families and individuals in Tanzania. With prices from USD $304,000 per week, Physis Recovery is unquestionably the most exclusive and expensive rehab in the World. Physis Recovery is a rehab for the super-rich. The Physis team is ideally positioned to understand and anticipate the needs of their ultra high net worth clients, and those whose lives are the subject of intense media scrutiny.   Understanding Addiction in Tanzania   According to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), Addiction in Tanzania is diagnosed on a spectrum of eleven criteria, including:   Lack of control Desire to quit but unable Spending a lot of time trying to get the substance Cravings Lack of responsibility Problems with relationships Loss of interest Dangerous use Worsening situations Tolerance Withdrawal   The severity is determined by how many criteria you meet. For example, if two to three of the criteria apply to you, you would have a mild substance use disorder. But even if you have a mild diagnosis, you should still seek the help of qualified professionals.   When to go to Rehab in Tanzania   Substance abuse and co-occurring mental health disorders are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths globally though when it comes to addiction it can prove very difficult to admit that a problem exists. As a general guide if substance abuse and addictive behaviors are causing a negative effect on any aspect of your life then it's time to consider a period of rehabilitation and recovery. If you're questioning whether you may need help in rehabilitating your life then it's very likely that you do, especially if your concerns are around alcohol, opioids or any other psychoactive substance. Inpatient vs Outpatient Rehab in Tanzania   After the decision has been made to undertake a period of rehabilitation one of the first decisions will be to choose between inpatient rehab or outpatient treatment. At Worlds Best Rehab we are firm advocates of inpatient treatment models, given the greater chance of long-term complete recovery.   Statistically, those choosing residential treatment in 48-day, 60-day or 90-day programs stand a greater chance of success long-term. The 28-day rehab model can also be successful although do remember that if the 28-days includes a period of medical detox then the total number of ‘therapeutic days' will be greatly reduced. For this very reason many rehabs in Tanzania have after care or secondary treatment options to assist a client reintegrate into their new life in recovery.   Alcohol and Substance abuse is one of the biggest killers in the World with nearly 3 million directly attributable deaths per year and countless more unattributed. Even with these facts it remains the one with the most stigma. Worlds Best Rehab is designed to help people make informed choices about high end treatment for recovery from a life threatening condition.   Admissions Process for Tanzania Rehab   There are many different pathways into rehab in Tanzania and we still believe that reaching out to rehabs and treatment centers directly is the best way. You may be referred by your medical specialist or interventionist, but it pays to ask whether that physician or referrer will receive a commission for your admission. Be sure not to accept the first recommendation for a Rehab Facility in Tanzania and check our full list of handpicked and expertly vetted facilities in Tanzania.   From making the initial inquiry to a Tanzania Rehab our featured treatment centers will work with you to understand the nature of the clients condition and to assess whether their facility or treatment models are best suited to the individual needs and requirements. Often, a client will be based out of State or indeed internationally and the rehab team will work closely alongside other medical and sober transport agencies to ensure a safe and secure transport pathway to admission.   Cost of Rehab in Tanzania   Rehab in Tanzania can cost between $10,000 and $304,000+ per month depending on the individual rehab.   Outpatient Rehab Options in Tanzania   Outpatient treatment varies in length, depending on the specific needs of the patient and might require 13-26 hours of treatment participation per week and can last from 3 to 12 months. Outpatient treatment in Tanzania can be successful, of that there is no doubt. Though many patients need to draw upon huge reserves of self-motivation and self-discipline to fully recover. And during active addiction such reserves have generally been exhausted through the very cycle of addiction that leads a patient or their loved ones to consider rehab in Tanzania as the only option.   Dual Diagnosis in Tanzania   Dual diagnosis: In Tanzania, the term dual diagnosis refers to psychiatric disorder and addictive behavior. Dual diagnosis allows the treatment of co-occurring mental health issues alongside other individualized treatment methods.   Biochemical Restoration in Tanzania   Rehabs in Tanzania have embraced the importance of biochemical restoration over the past decade, in line with the general evolution of this dynamic approach to addiction treatment globally. Biochemical restoration in Tanzania analyses and treats the biochemical imbalances in the body that make a person more prone to addiction. Lab testing and blood work to identifies biochemical imbalances such as hormone levels, neurotransmitters, amino acids and nutrient deficiencies while checking for the presence of heavy metals and toxicities.   Secondary Rehabs in Tanzania   Secondary care rehabs cement the life skills required for recovery over a far longer period than would traditionally be feasible in a primary care facility. These extended exposure and life skills geared programs enables clients to operate their day to day lives and remain in a constructive system over a long period of time, which is universally the key to a sustained recovery.

City United Church Podcast
"Stressed and Worried" - Easter 2022

City United Church Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 24:58


We are living during stressful times. Statistically, stress levels in our culture and world are rising rapidly and people are at their breaking point. Understanding how to deal with the pressures and pivots of life can help us find rest over stress. Many people are longing for a more peaceful life, and they are doing whatever it takes to find it. In this collection, we will look at Psalm 23. This familiar Psalm shows us how to experience a peace-filled life in a stress-filled culture. “Come to me, all of you who are weary and burdened, and I will give you rest.” - Jesus, Matthew 11:28 This collection of talks will help you find rest from the daily stressors of your life.

Everything Everywhere Daily History Podcast
Righties vs Lefties (Encore)

Everything Everywhere Daily History Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 11:04


Subscribe to the podcast!  https://podfollow.com/everythingeverywhere/ Statistically speaking, about 90% of you listening to my words right now are right-handed. Of the rest of you, almost all of you will be left-handed.  The question of why so many more people are right-handed as opposed to left-handed is one that people have asked for centuries. It is an imbalance that has existed throughout history and across every culture. Learn more about righties and lefties and why the imbalance between them exists, on this episode of Everything Everywhere Daily. -------------------------------- Associate Producers: Peter Bennett & Thor Thomsen   Become a supporter on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/everythingeverywhere Update your podcast app at newpodcastapps.com Discord Server: https://discord.gg/UkRUJFh Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/everythingeverywhere/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/everywheretrip Website: https://everything-everywhere.com/everything-everywhere-daily-podcast/ Everything Everywhere is an Airwave Media podcast." or "Everything Everywhere is part of the Airwave Media podcast network Please contact sales@advertisecast.com to advertise on Everything Everywhere. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stories and Strategies
Behavioural Economics and Public Relations

Stories and Strategies

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 22:01


The hot hand fallacy in basketball. Why we tend to grab a coffee to start our day or to have difficult conversations. The fact IKEA furniture is so hard to assemble sometimes is part of why it's so popular. How does that make sense?All examples well-explained by Behavioural Economics. Statistically there's no such thing as a hot hand in basketball.We need that coffee due to the Anchoring Effect.And IKEA furniture? We feel a sense of personal pride when we've finally solved the puzzle.In this episode, if we as PR and Marketing people are in the business of persuasive communications then we need to go beyond making people think or feel differently. We need to change or reinforce their behaviours. That's where BE comes in.Guest: Adrian WheelerTwitter @adrianpragueConnect with or DM Stories and Strategies with comments and episode ideas comms_podcast. We follow back.

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2058 - Sunday, February 5, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 13:00


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine
What You Need to Know About Rehab in Saudi Arabia

Worlds Best Rehab Magazine

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 8:15


Rehabs in Saudi Arabia https://www.worldsbest.rehab/saudi-arabia/ https://www.worldsbest.rehab/ar/saudi-arabia/ Are there any drug and alcohol addiction rehab treatment centers in Saudi Arabia?   Saudi Arabia does not have any rehab treatment centers. Saudi Citizens travel abroad for treatment. One of the most popular treatment facilities for those in Saudi Arabia is Physis Recovery, which has a dedicated, award-winning program, treating just one client at a time in sublime opulence.   The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has a zero tolerance legislative framework toward illegal substance use, which unfortunately often means  those suffering from burnout or substance use forgo treatment options and instead suffer from severe health implications. For more information contact https://www.physisrecovery.com/   Finding a treatment center in Saudi Arabia is virtually impossible, but there are options for residents of Saudi Arabia who are ready to regain control over their lives. Physis Recovery has been awarded Worlds Most Exclusive Luxury Rehab. The Saudi Arabia and GCC team is culturally sensitive, adheres to strict codes of confidentiality, and employs staff members who offer treatment in both Arabic and English.   Why does Saudi Arabia Have  Zero Tolerance for Substance Misuse?   Substance misuse in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia contradicts the fundamentals of Sharia Law and it is deemed culturally unacceptable. Many individuals and families experience intense feelings of shame and alienation when confronted with substance use issues.   What is the Addiction Treatment Situation in Saudi Arabia?   Despite strict laws forbidding alcohol and drugs in Saudi Arabia, there is still widespread use throughout the country and the severe penalties for the import, manufacture, possession, and consumption of alcohol or illegal drugs has not proven to be a deterrent. In 2019 a World Drug Report by the UNODC, it was found that for Saudis aged 15 to 64, an estimated 2.3% used amphetamine-type substances, 1.9% used cannabis, 2.5% used opiates and 0.85% used opioids. What is the Best Rehab in Saudi Arabia?   Worlds Best Rehabs features the most exclusive addiction treatment facilities in Saudi Arabia and our expert editors hand pick each rehab based on the facilities, treatment modality, success rate, ratio of clinical staff to client, a commitment to aftercare and long term recovery and overall value.   Understanding the Severity of Addiction in Saudi Arabia   According to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM), Addiction in Saudi Arabia is diagnosed on a spectrum of eleven criteria, including:   Lack of control Desire to quit but unable Spending a lot of time trying to get the substance Cravings Lack of responsibility Problems with relationships Loss of interest Dangerous use Worsening situations Tolerance Withdrawal   The severity is determined by how many criteria you meet. For example, if two to three of the criteria apply to you, you would have a mild substance use disorder. But even if you have a mild diagnosis, you should still seek the help of qualified professionals.   When to go to Rehab in Saudi Arabia   Substance abuse and co-occurring mental health disorders are responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths globally though when it comes to addiction it can prove very difficult to admit that a problem exists.   As a general guide, if substance abuse and addictive behaviors are causing a negative effect on any aspect of your life then it's time to consider a period of rehabilitation and recovery. If you're questioning whether you may need help in rehabilitating your life then it's very likely that you do, especially if your concerns are around alcohol, opioids or any other psychoactive substance.   Inpatient vs Outpatient Rehabs in Saudi Arabia   After the decision has been made to undertake a period of rehabilitation one of the first decisions will be to choose between inpatient rehab or outpatient treatment. At Worlds Best Rehab we are firm advocates of inpatient treatment models, given the greater chance of long-term complete recovery.   Statistically, those choosing residential treatment in 48-day, 60-day or 90-day programs stand a greater chance of success long-term. The 28-day rehab model can also be successful although do remember that if the 28-days includes a period of medical detox then the total number of ‘therapeutic days' will be greatly reduced. For this very reason many rehabs in Saudi Arabia have after care or secondary treatment options to assist a client reintegrate into their new life in recovery.   Alcohol and Substance abuse is one of the biggest killers in the World with nearly 3 million directly attributable deaths per year and countless more unattributed. Even with these facts it remains the one with the most stigma. Worlds Best Rehab is designed to help people make informed choices about high end treatment for recovery from a life threatening condition.   Saudi Arabia Detox   Phase one of inpatient Saudi Arabia rehab usually starts with detoxification and it's the detox phase of recovery that presents the most brutal physical symptoms of addiction. Detox can be undertaken in a medically supervised home detox environment though this must be under the guidance and direction of a Saudi Arabia rehab physician.   A poorly managed detox can be fatal as the potentially life-threatening effects of suddenly quitting (withdrawing) from alcohol and substance abuse can be very severe.   For many people it is safest and preferable to detox under medical supervision in a Saudi Arabia rehab facility.

Product Hive
Statistically Significant with Sam Howard

Product Hive

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2022 18:32


Sam Howard—a CX Researcher at MX—will be sharing tips for establishing a foundation for the enablement of cross-departmental Customer Experience. View this presentation on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=94Vb87QPbOg Check out producthive.org to see the latest events, join our community on Slack, and more. Thanks to Joakim Karud for our music: soundcloud.com/joakimkarud/keep-on-going

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2057 - Saturday, February 4, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 16, 2022 12:45


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2056 - Friday, February 3, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2022 12:26


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Locked On Tar Heels - Daily Podcast On North Carolina Tar Heels Football & Basketball
Ode to Leaky Black | What does Black add statistically to UNC? | Spring football game recruiting

Locked On Tar Heels - Daily Podcast On North Carolina Tar Heels Football & Basketball

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 15, 2022 36:01


Armando Bacot, Brady Manek, Caleb Love, and RJ Davis often receive the lion's share of praise for the great work that North Carolina did this past season. The overlooked and underappreciated member of that group is Leaky Black. Well he is overlooked no more, because today is "Ode to Leaky Black" day on Locked On Tar Heels. Host Isaac Schade fills you in on some of the statistical diversity Black brought to the table this season for UNC and selects five of the Twitter responses to the question of "Why do you want Leaky Black to return?" Finally, college football recruiting analyst John Garcia, Jr. joins the show to discuss Carolina's spring football game, what attending an event like that means for recruits, and which recruits he had his eyes on. Follow the show: Locked On Tar Heels (YouTube) Locked On Tar Heels (LinkTree) Locked On Tar Heels (Twitter) Isaac Schade (Twitter) Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline BetOnline.net has you covered this season with more props, odds and lines than ever before. BetOnline – Where The Game Starts! Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Athletic Greens Athletic Greens is going to give you a FREE 1 year supply of immune-supporting Vitamin D AND 5 FREE travel packs with your first purchase. All you have to do is visit athleticgreens.com/COLLEGE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2055 - Thursday, February 2, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2022 6:02


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Working Capital The Real Estate Podcast
State of the Market and Real Estate Predictions from Professor Peter Linneman | EP99

Working Capital The Real Estate Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2022 52:40


Peter Linneman is an author of the Linneman Letter, the former Professor of Real Estate, Finance, and Public Policy at the Wharton School of Business. Previously listed as one of the top 25 most influential people in commercial Real Estate. In this episode we talked about: Real Estate Finance and Investments Book Valuation of Real Estate assets Inflation in Real Estate Relationship between corporates and interest rates Peter's thoughts on Real Estate Asset Classes Overview of Retail Real Estate Office Market Future of Commercial Real Estate Industry Advice to Real Estate Newcomers Resources and Lessons Learned Useful links: https://www.linnemanassociates.com Books: Factfulness : Ten Reasons We're Wrong About The World - And Why Things Are Better Than You Think by Hans Rosling Rational Optimist by Matt Ridley Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jbkSRLYSojo&t=3s Transcriptions: Jesse (0s): Welcome to the working capital real estate podcast. My name is Jesper galley. And on this show, we discuss all things real estate with investors and experts in a variety of industries that impact real estate. Whether you're looking at your first investment or raising your first fund, join me and let's build that portfolio one square foot at a time. Ladies and gentlemen, my name's Jessica gal, and you're listening to working capital the real estate podcast, a special, special guests today. We just chatted about this. If you don't know him by now, I don't know if you want to know him.   And that is Dr. Peter Lindemann. He's the author of the Lindemann letter, the former professor real estate and finance and public policy at the Wharton school of business. And he was previously listed as one of the top 25, most influential people in commercial real estate. Peter, how you doing?   Peter (49s): I'm doing great. I just got back from Egypt. So my background is a long lasting quality piece of real estate. The Luxor, temple, and luck soar. So good reminder that great real estate lasts like four or 5,000 years.   Jesse (1m 6s): There's a book I'm reading right now and it's on the evolution of skyscrapers and it goes back to the pyramids. It goes back to the, the renderings and the Bible of places that may be existed. Architecturally looks sound, but that is a, it's fantastic to see how we've come from there to where we're at today. And, and, and the drive for humans to build up. Hasn't seemed to wane in any way   Peter (1m 28s): When you see this stuff from three, four or 5,000 years ago. Yo okay. They got it.   Jesse (1m 35s): Yeah. Well, thanks so much for coming on. I, I think this is a real treat for listeners, for anybody watching the video. I'm holding up my real estate and finance and investment book written by the doctor, Peter Lindemann. And I mean, if you're in the real estate industry in any capacity, you will have to have come across this book. I think this, for me, it was second year of the MBA in Toronto and it was just chock full of amazing things. This thing. How long has it been now? When, when was this first published?   Peter (2m 5s): Oh, gee probably 16 years ago or 17 years ago was the first edition it's come to be referred to as the blue Bible. I don't know if that's a good description. It came about very oddly. And then I was teaching my real estate finance investment course for a number of years and I never had a book that I could find that I really liked. So I was teaching my own stuff, but I assigned a book to students because they needed something. So we finally recorded my lectures and after a lot of work and a lot of down additions, that's what came out of it.   Jesse (2m 40s): Yeah. Well, it's great. It's funny. I'd like, you know, you go through a time period where you're like, okay, I got to get rid of these books. Usually the textbooks are the first to go, but I've hung on to this one for a long time, just because I've actually kind of gone back to it. And now that we're at the stage in the career where we're hiring younger individuals, you know, this is something where, you know, they're probably reading in school, but it's definitely something that they can use as a resource.   Peter (3m 4s): Well, and one of the other things nice, is this a nice color? So while it's on your bookshelf, it looks good.   Jesse (3m 10s): Yeah. Yeah. It's not a, it's not that old school. Just topes. Well, you know what? There was a, so we chatted a little bit earlier. You were on a podcast that I recommend a hunter Thompson cashflow connections podcast. And there was something that I was driving in the car, listening to this podcast. And I had to write down because I was just like, you know what? This is it, it was something you said, and it was just an insight. And maybe we could use it kind of as a springboard for this conversation because that conversation did talk a lot about the economics of real estate and where we find ourselves today.   And what you said was demand as loosely described as real GDP growth is up 3% and goods as loosely described by industrial output are down by 1% and services as loosely proxied by employment is 1% short. Demand is up. Supply is down prices. Go up. Can you break that down for us? What we're talking about here?   Peter (4m 7s): Yeah. I mean, I think you broke it down really well. I think this there's very real inflation. The very real inflation started to occur. Let's just do a quick review. 20, 22 years ago, things are shut down. Like a third of the economy is shut. Not just slow shut. And then another third is really slow, but not shut. And then another third is working well, when you shut things, there are ramifications of that.   So for example, two years ago, the price of oil is like five, $10 a barrel. So what do you do with the tar sands? Shut them down. What do you do with the fracking? Shut them down because they aren't even close to break. Even. I'm just taking those as dramatic examples. Then what happens is fortunately the economy I'm talking about the us, but I think the Canadian pretty similar by very late 20 and then through 21 starts growing and it grew faster in its comeback.   Then supply came back. Now that's not surprising when you think about it because things are really awful. Do you expect supply to lead demand? No. Common sense says I wait to see if things are really there before I expand and bring on capacity. So what you've got is real GDP, kind of a crude metric of us demand up 3.2% versus pre COVID not annually.   The two years since COVID began and goods, output is down 1%, as you're saying, and employment is down 1%. And as you said, you don't have to be a genius to figure out supply down 1% from where it was in 2019, demand up three and a half percent prices are up. Now, you're going to have a long discussion of which prices and how much, some more than others. It's that simple.   When will price inflation, moderate, pretty simple. When supply catches up now there's this notion that we have to cool demand. And I asked people, would we be better off if we had no inflation right now? And GDP was also down 1% over those two years, by the way, if real GDP was down 1% and industrial output was down 1% and employment was down 1%. You think we'd have much inflation right now?   No. Would we be better off? Absolutely not. We'd be four and a half percent worse off. So you go, okay. It's a good thing. In fact, no is a good thing. It's a staggeringly amazing thing that after the last two years where we shut down huge plus in the economy, political division, COVID killing millions of people, many more, getting sick absenteeism at work, social unrest, a war now, I mean, name all this stuff that's happening.   And we're three and a half percent or 3.2% larger as an economy than before. That's amazing but left to its own devices. It would have been up about five and a half percent. So demands, not overheated. If, if real GDP was up 10%, then I'd say that's overheated. We can't do that. But we can do five to five and a half percent over a two year period. We've only done three. And at 3.2% under heated, we still need demand to keep driving forward.   We don't want to slow down demand. We want to encourage supply. So if we were going to do policies, the kind of policies we need are, and I'm just giving as an example, I'm not proposing them. Gee, you drill an oil well this year, or you start pumping from a well that isn't pumping. You could write it off in a year, right? You think you get more expiration with that as an incentive, or if you hire somebody net, net, you net, net expand your employment, you get a $4,000 tax credit.   Or if you come back to work after not having work for six, six months, I'm all of these. I'm just making up. As examples, you get a $2,000 tax credit is an individual. You think we'd bring back more late. Do you think we bring back more capacity? And as we did, what would happen to prices they go down. So I don't think this is about demand. It is in some tautological sense. It's about supply has made an amazing recovery from a shutdown, but still legs.   And I don't know how a lot of Terry policy gets us to bring back capacity faster and that's a real activity, so to screen. So that's how I see it. And it has some ramifications for real estate. Your, your construction costs are really going up, right? I mean, that's not an imagination, but on the other hand, so are your rents, so are your property values and you have to take the whole menu.   It's like when you played cards and you got three ACEs and a two and a three, Hey, that's a pretty good hand. You got three ACEs, be happy. Don't don't gripe about gee. I should have forays. Right? All things considered pretty good here.   Jesse (9m 48s): So when it comes to real estate, from the point of view of a couple of variables, there's, there's inflation in the general economy that people just seem to be continuing to worry about time and time. Again, this time it's different as Howard marks will, would, you know, titles each one of his chapters in his latest book. But what I'm curious about is from a real estate perspective, we have the valuation of the real estate asset, and we have those prices in our markets and a lot of other major markets in north America going up. And the concern is that these cap rates get compressed and compressed.   How much lower can these cap rates get compressed? What I'm curious about is it the going to be the valuation that gets out of control or will it be the affordability from a rent perspective that you see as the governing the governor? So to speak on in that dynamic,   Peter (10m 36s): Ultimately it's the fundamentals. And that would go to the mortar. The rent side price is just an outcome, right? Price is a comp bow. You know, the value of a property is the combination of the supply and demand for space, right? Namely income and occupant or retina occupancy and the supply and demand for money to buy income streams, right? And they don't necessarily always align. We're in a period where list supplying demand for space.   Retina occupancy is in quite good shape unless you were in senior housing, unless you're in hospitality, still lagging, unless you're in bad retail, unless you're in office where you don't know if people are coming back to the office. But if you're in apartments and warehouse and good retail, quite good Retin-A occupancy side. Now on the capital side, what's happened is QE one, QE two QE three.   After the financial crisis put unprecedented amounts of money into the system. And you saw coming out in 2014, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, and that money searching for a home pushed down cap rates. And everybody kept saying, oh, cap rates are going to go up cap rates. But I kept saying, no, the weight of money is going to push it down. Now we've even put in a lot more money. In addition into this system, what do you think happens when that money comes out?   When that money comes out, it's got to find a home. So for example, we have record personal cash holdings. We have record corporate cash holdings. We have record dry private equity capitals. We have direct record, dry uncommitted, money, sovereign wealth and pensions vis-a-vis real estate. And we have record unused bank reserves. What do you think happens when they may still be at record levels, but a little lower record levels?   And the answer is that money's going to find a home and it's going to find it buying cash streams. Some of that is on the stock market. Some of it is real estate. Some of it is gold. And I think cap rates go down now, do they go down every day? No. And people say, well, how much lower they can? Can they go? Things can always go 2% lower. This is one of the things that you remember when you learned about penny stocks. And somebody said, how can you lose? They only cost a penny and you'd go, well, they could go to a half a penny, right?   They could go to a quarter of a penny. So how can the cap rate go lower than 3.7? Well, it can go to 3.6. It can go to 3.5. And the reason is the weight of money. So what do I mean by the weight of money? The example I use scope, the thought experiment. We've done a lot of statistical work on this that I won't go into saying, let them in, let her it's other stuff we've written, but here's the thought experiment. Very simple. Suppose I told you a year from now $4 trillion.   I don't care if it's Canadian or us $4 trillion. In addition to the amount already invested is trying to invest in apartment buildings. Okay. Well, you think will happen to cap rates. They'll go down. By the way, you didn't ask what's the economy like you didn't ask. What are interest rates get in, say, as the yield curve inverted, you simply said, well, that kind of money. It's got to find it. It's going to bid up the values bed down, cap rates.   Now flip that thought experiment. Suppose I told you that a year from now a trillion dollars is exiting apartment buildings. By the way, you could apply this to any property category. And you'd say, wow, that's going to be a problem. A trillion dollars trying to get out is going to crush values. And you go, you didn't know what interest rates were when you made that insight. You didn't know what the economy was. The point is the weight of money and we have put unprecedented amounts of money and it hasn't really come out yet to speak of.   And it will, and it will be asset price inflation, not con goes to the services.   Jesse (15m 5s): So question on that, we've had a economist on the show before of maybe on the one side, closer to the Austrian school, the other side, the modern monetary theory MMT. And for listeners, I would just look up both of those to learn a little bit more. But this idea that when the great financial crisis was happening, there was a number of economists that were saying, you're putting money into the economy, like your example, 4 trillion, 5 trillion that is going to cause inflation, no matter what, however, what was happening was it was sitting on balance sheets of banks. It wasn't getting into the economy.   And I always think about Milton Friedman's. I think it was his Nobel part of it was this velocity of money. You can't just go into the Connie. It actually has to move to create some form of inflation. So, so in this example, could you talk a little bit about when you say the 4 trillion in the market, does that mean on bank's balance sheets? Does that mean it's it's circulating, are those necessary conditions?   Peter (15m 60s): Yeah. At this moment, the same thing happened that I happened after , which is the amount of money going into the banks skyrocketed and the velocity with which they used it. So that in the beginning, there was no notable effect on the economy. It just kept the ship steady, if you will. And then the money started coming out slowly. Well actually slowly, just a little more rapidly than it did before.   And remember the modern banking system is not set up to lend you money to buy a Milky way is set up to have a, an investment firm by the company that makes Milky way, right. It's set up for that. And that's why as 2014 through 19 occurred the money chase assets rather than goods and services. Right? And so I think that's, what's going to happen again by enlarge the money, went into the system to keep it afloat in the way you described it, to make sure there was liquidity.   I think it did it well. And now what will happen over the next few years is it will come out. Will all of it come out? No, the velocity dropped, but as some of it starts coming in, when if I put a ton in beyond whatever you have, even if only a thousand pounds of it come out. So a lot of weight, right? A lot of weight, if I put a hundred tons in even of only a thousand pounds come out, it's still a lot of weight.   It's not much compared to what went into your point about velocity, but it's more than would have otherwise been there. And I think it will chase primarily assets now would include single family homes in that as an asset, right? It's a real ass.   Jesse (17m 55s): Now when it comes to the economy itself, well, you know what, let's back up for a second. I did have somebody from my office. They said, you know, you have to ask, I told them I was having you on. And he said, ask him about the relationship between cap rates and interest rates. Cause we talk a lot about that spread in our industry quite a bit basically. Is it a significant piece of what you guys look at over, over the longterm? How is it tracked? You know, and you mentioned earlier that Lindemann letter, we'll put a link up to that as well, but I'm just curious in the work that you do, how important that relationship is.   If at all,   Peter (18m 29s): If there's a relationship, it would be important. However, having studied it, we can't find a relationship other than that. So I'll give you, for example, in, I think it's the, I can't remember if it's 40 years of 45 years, basically the 10 year treasury yield has fallen by 600 basis points. And the cap rate fell by 300. That's hardly one to one. Then if you look at the micro history of that movement, it's all over the place.   That is to say the spread movements in the spread, basically swamp, the general downward decline, right? That'd be the spreads are all over the place over history. Then go one step further and I'll give another example. We looked at it very sophisticated. Statistically, can't find it. Can't find the correlation. Now, by the way, if you said the interest rate 10 year treasury went from 2.3% today to 14% tomorrow, that would probably have an impact, but that's not likely to happen.   If you said it went from 2.3 to 2.9 or 3.2 or back down to 1.6, by the way we saw it go from 1.6 to 2.3, what happened to cap rates? They went down. If anything, why? Because of the way the money, not the caused the interest rates went up and there was this not interest rates going up causing price, cap rates go down. It's just no relationship. I'll give you the other that captures it. If you look at 2007, cap rates were essentially identical to 2019, okay.   2007, 2019 and 2007, the long and the short rate were above 5%. And in 2019, the short rate, what I'm doing from memory was 2.5 or 2.6. And the long rate was 3.2. How can that be? If it's interest rates that are causing them, that interest rates are 200 basis points higher and you still have the same cap rate that should tell you something, right? And in fact, we've seen periods where there's a flight to quality.   When there's a flight to quality interest rates go down and cap rates go up well so much for the step relationship. It just doesn't exist. At least in the relevant parameters, at least that we can find, or that I've seen. One other thing I'd add about interest rates that I kind of tell friends and clients to call them down. Let's assume let's just assume that a year from now, we're sitting here and the long rates at 3.2% and the short rates at 2.5%.   Okay. A lot of interest rate movement upward. Okay. Is that a disaster? No, that's 2019. That's 2019. Those interest rates I just described we 2019, if we'd have had this conversation in 2019, you would have said, how much longer can these low interest rates last, right? You wouldn't be referring to them as high. I'm sure you had that conversation with people.   Right? So to understand that even a big interest rate movement back is simply to 2019, which by the way, most real estate people said, thank you very much. This is pretty cheap money because it is, we then had a fire sale where the government gave money away. If you were willing to borrow. And the biggest borrower of course, was the U S government biggest borrow in the world during that was the us government. They subsidized you as government and they subsidized borrowers.   Well, if they stopped subsidizing borrowers, that hurts far worse. It helps lenders. It helps savers and it hurts debtors, but it's not like one's more noble than the other, a dollar gain by one or lost by the other washes primarily. So I don't get hung up on that balance. Sheets are pretty sane. And so he just had to have a bit of context. And by the way, telling the us government that their money isn't free is not the worst thing we could do because they're like little children.   If Candy's free, the little children are given candy for free. Right. And he said, whoa, you got to slow down. You got to buy, you got to buy that. Right. Slows them down. That's Congress, if you give them or the system, if you give it free money, guess what they use it like it's free. Yeah.   Jesse (23m 27s): So when it comes to, when it comes to like speaking of washes, when it comes to the other asset classes that we deal with in commercial real estate, retail, industrial multi Rez office space, what we had in our office, which was not dissimilar. I think now we're at 85 locations, 85 major markets. And what we had in our headquarters was during COVID. We almost were revenue was down top-line was down, but it was close. And what happened was we had industrial and multi Raz really were the darlings of the industry.   And they, they kind of made up for retailer, like you said, not, you know, grocery store anchored or really good retail. And on the other side, the office, so office and retail was the drag. Those other two asset classes came up and, you know, picked up the slack. Do you see this trend? Continuing? What are your thoughts on, on the various asset class classes moving forward?   Peter (24m 24s): Okay. Real quick multifamily. In December, 2020, I wrote a piece we're entering the golden era of multifamily investing. And it was because spreads were big capital was available to borrow debt was being given away a because of the subsidy rent unoccupancy are good and going to get a lot better. Well, pro that happened in the last 15 months, it's still has legs, but some of the gold is already been harvested.   All right. So it's not like we're in a bad period for multifamily, but we're in a golden period, but a lot of the gold has already been harvested. Retinol, occupancy look good going forward, demographics. So good fundamental under supply of housing, multi, especially single. And so it has good fundamentals. It can be overbuilt, but then you go to industrial and industrial took me a while to figure out, I think I finally figured it out. Normally you would think if GDP I'm using it as a crude measure of demand, if it grew by two and a half percent, we'd need about two and a half percent more warehouse because two and a half percent of more GDP, two and a half percent more boxes, right.   Just kind of crudely. And that had kind of been a good rule of thumb. We always did more precisely, but as a rule of thumb. And then what happened is we'd see two and a half percent of growth of GDP and 4% growth in warehouse and demand. Didn't say, well, that's odd. Can't last. And then the next year you'd see the same thing, 2016, then the next thing in 70 next thing in 1819, you kept seeing, I finally figured out that if you buy that shirt in a store, it takes one third of the warehouse space that if you buy it online, because an online facility has wider aisles, more staging areas, small box handling, rather than big box handling, lot more loading in and out needed a lot more moving around than let's move a box here or there let's move a pallet.   So online sales use about three times the amount of space. Well that me and this two and a half generates four is about the right math. And given the growth of online, that's going to continue for a number of years. So when does the rent and occupancy balance, when we start building for four and a half percent and demand grows it for four and a half percent, well, that's not going to happen for another couple of years. So the rent unoccupancy fundamentals there look pretty good.   Even as we build more and more the real risks, there are two, one, a lot of online sales don't make money. And a lot of retailers realize that during the pandemic. So are they still going to be so aggressive selling online? And if not, it gets closer to the two and a half generates two and a half. And the other is everyone. Somebody wakes up whole bunch of people wake up at Amazon saying, how do we get it from three times, the amount of footage needed for an online sale to two times.   And if they do that, it changes the math. You then go to retail. I've never wanted to own bad retail. I've always wanted to own good retail. If you own good retail, you're constantly having to reinvent it through its entire history. But if it's a great location and you have a core of good retailers, it's a dynamic business. It's a hard grinded out business. I love the dynamics of great retail. And in fact, online sales have been flat for the last year high, but flat while brick retail is getting record sales and as online gets back to trend, then the trend will continue.   And, but I like good retail. Why would I like bad retail? I mean, it just, and I remember Al Talman long time, kind of one of the gods of the industry, certainly one of the gods of retail, I don't know, 30 years ago, 35 years ago said you can't buy bad retail, cheaply enough to make it work. And that's because even if you get it for almost nothing, your rent cannot be cut low enough to change the price of Cheerios.   And if you can't change the price of Cheerios people, aren't going to shop there. And if they're not going to shop there, you don't have good retail. Right. So good retail. I like the outlook for hotels making a comeback. Weakest part is if you're highly dependent on Chinese tourists, kind of a, what a two-star three-star Chinese tourists. They're not coming back for another couple of years. And if that was your sweet zone was playing to them, that that's going to still be, that's going to be the slowest recovery, but it looks like this summer pending another surge, absent another surge, going to be a great summer and into the fall.   Jesse (29m 47s): So before we get to office, I just, I just had a question, a question on retail. You know, whether it's north America in general, whether it's American or, or a Canadian, I think it's 32, 33 square foot of retail per capita. I think something like that, we're not much better in Canada than the U S obviously the European countries have not built as much. Do you see that there's this conversation or has been over the last two years that, you know, a lot of these potentially multi-family or retail, you know, lower tier areas are going to be re developed repurpose whether it's industrial or whether, you know, whether it's multi rise.   Is that something you do see, you know, developers actually looking at that   Peter (30m 28s): It's the pandemic probably sped it up because it pushed so many retailers that we're going to go out of business, out of business. The thing that kept them from shutting, I mean, we looked at doing some of those deals. The problem is you have one tenant paying $2 a foot. So even though they're only selling $114, they actually make profit in the store at, at $2 a foot rent. And that's because the lease was signed 30 years ago with auctions, right.   I'm being extreme, but you get the point and nobody else wants to be there, but I can't buy it, shut it down and build apartments. Or I can't do anything with it. That happens over time. That will happen over time. So, absolutely. And this notion that we have too much retail reminds me, remember, you're old enough. You remember how you would drive by the old industrial areas of America. And you just see these empty warehouses, these empty 1920s, 1910s, 1940s buildings that works counted as empty industrial, but they weren't empty industrial.   They were just empty space. And if you wanted to call them industrial column industrial, but it's not real. If you got rid of the space in retail, that's irrelevant. It was once retail, but it's irrelevant. Just like that old factory that shut in 1972 was irrelevant as industrial space. The amount of footage we has have goes way down. Now, that's not to say it gets to the right amount, but it goes way down in the same way the old industrial did.   That's what we ought to have. We ought to have. If people are really carefully, they've created a new class obsolete, real estate of any type, right? And then you'd see the retail stock go down. You'd see the industrial stock go down. Although the industrial has kind of run its course, those old old buildings have been dealt with over the last 20 years.   Jesse (32m 38s): So the wild card office space we've seen, we track all the, the major markets we have seen pretty much every U S market has come back from a cell phone data that we have into the major cities. We are a little bit slower just because our government policies have been, they are what they are. We'll not get into a political thing here. But what we have seen is a lot of these markets, a huge increase in the percentage of the office market being subleased space.   Now we're starting to see that trend go the other way, starting to come back down and what I, what we've seen in the markets that we are in here is that really good positioned office space in major cities continue. And it looks like the outcome look as positive, potentially not the same for the suburban area. What are your thoughts on, on the office? Just philosophically first and then maybe some of the data that you're seeing.   Peter (33m 33s): Oh, I totally agree with your view. I think people have a fall. People fell in love with this fantasy that I don't have to be work. I don't have to be at work. I don't have to be answerable. I'm self-motivated to work at home. If you're really honest, you have to be pretty highly, self-motivated pretty disciplined. Have a good work environment and be able to control your schedule pretty effectively. Well, there are people like that. Those are the people who are already working at home. Those are the people who are working from the airport.   Those were the people who were working while they were on the road, et cetera. I've well having said that, I'm always amazed that when I fly back from Europe, which I do quite a bit and I'm in business class. So these are quote, a lot of worker types. And when you're flying from Europe to the United States, it's a Workday, right? It's not night. It's not like when you go the other direction and it's night look around and see what people, these business people, these hard working disciplined people are doing as they fly from Europe to the United States about a third sleep and, and, and all of it, about 10% of the others.   Do nothing, read a book or watch a movie. Well, this is a work day for God's sake. So I'm sitting there working away, working away where Kiawah and I realized most people don't have that discipline. I'm not saying I'm great. I'm just saying they don't have that discipline. The other variant of that, that I like to point out to people is I think Ricky is a brilliant writer comedian. And he created the office in many things. We created the office, both the British and us version. And it was built around the notion that it's really hard to get people to work while they're at the office.   If you think it's really hard working while you got them at the office, what do you think Ricky do? Surveys is show working from home would look like, I mean, let's be honest, right? And people would go back now and give you the last reason. I think people go back and it's self preservation. There's tipping points here. And if nobody's at the office, what's the point of week going to the office, right? I mean, if all I'm going to do is go to the office and sit alone and not interact and be around people.   There's no advantage then is a whole lot of people get there and there's advantages. And then as more than the majority are there, I got to be there because otherwise, I don't know what they're saying about me. And I don't know who's getting the plum assignments so it can flip from if nobody's there. There's absolutely no reason to go there. But basically everybody, when I say everybody, I mean, everybody all at 2019, basically everybody's there like it or not.   I got to be there to protect myself. And self-defense is an amazing instinct of our species. And that's what ultimately is going to bring us back.   Jesse (36m 43s): I had a number of people early in the pandemic. They, you know, they knew, I worked in commercial real estate. We specialize for the most part in an office. And they were like, you know, what are your thoughts on the, on, you know, the pandemic. It turns out, you know, the zoom calls all this, you know, we, you can work from home. And my response was always, if you're in my industry and you don't know that this was a secular trend that was happening happening long before, COVID this idea of agile offices, you know, working for, and we needed kind of a kick in the butt to get the technology where we needed.   I don't think you've been kind of paying attention to the market. I think my outlook is that it's, it's a general positive thing, but you know, I'm a, I'm the perfect candidate as a commercial broker that I sh I should be able to work at home all day. No problem. And I can, but like you said, as motivated as I am being around my team, being accountable to them, physically seeing them being in the space, having just a different idea of my TVs over here, you know, versus my couches over here versus I'm in the office. And I'm in a different mode that it seemed like a insignificant thing at the beginning of COVID I've come to realize it's a, it's a crucial part of how I work.   Peter (37m 49s): So one of the things I say to people I'm old, I'm 71. One of the things I say to people is I'm not sure that this zoom wouldn't be better if you couldn't see me, because I'm not that good looking okay. And that's called a conference call now. Yes, it wasn't encrypted. And yes. So I'm not trying to say technology. Hasn't made it better, easier for you to get a lot of viewers all in, at once and so forth and so on versus a conference call.   But we were doing from 2011 to 2019, we were doing quarterly economic updates for our subscribers. That would have like 500 people on old old-fashioned phone hookup. We didn't have big problems. And I didn't get a lot of people saying, oh, I'm going to commit suicide because I didn't see your lovely face. And let's be honest. You're a good looking guy. I'm not, there are a few people we're looking at, but most of us, it doesn't add to the conversation.   Jesse (38m 57s): Yeah. I'll be happy if I look like that at 71, Peter. So don't sell yourself short. We've got about 10 minutes left here. I want to be a little mindful of your time. But before, before we wrap up, maybe you could kind of provide a little bit of insights, crystal ball for us. You know, what you think the future holds for the commercial real estate industry. And maybe you could kind of couch that with this idea of, you know, people talking about the potential next recession, interest rates going up political unrest.   W what are your thoughts?   Peter (39m 29s): Okay. If we don't have a huge re occurrence of some very bad version of COVID, right? 'cause that's, that's, we shut down to varying degrees. Okay. If we don't have NATO somehow dragged into the Ukrainian situation, which could be very violent and, and really escalate. And we don't have a political reaction like we did in 1971, when Nixon introduced wage and price controls, the U S economy is going to do terrific for the next four or 5, 6, 7 years.   Most of the excesses that existed, not saying all most got white washed out of the system in 20 20, 20, 21, it was kind of a reset, kind of a reboot. We got a new base zero, and I think we get 5, 6, 7 years of runway, unless we do something. We, as a species, do something that really is harmful and COVID would fit that the, the NATO being dragged in militarily and wage and price control.   I saw wage and price controls. When I was just out of college, destroy an economy, I mean, overnight destroy an economy, and it would do it. It could, it would do it again. That's the biggest risk I see to the economy, because I think that's more possible than the COVID being huge or the, or the NATO, but they're all possible short of that. The economy is going to do just fine. And I'll give you my reaction. And I've only started saying this.   I don't know if I set it on hunters, which is a true story, by the way, I'll tell you when I'm lying. True story is I had lunch with a friend about three, four weeks ago. And he said, you know, Peter, I follow you and smart and all this stuff. Great, wonderful. But interest rates going to go up and inflation and the divided Congress and Ukraine. And by the way, he went on to name like six sings.   Each of them, very real. It's not like these out of touch. Each of them is a very real chance that our education system is, is, you know, shambles, you know, and so forth. And he said, therefore, I don't see the U S economy has a future. I don't see how we come back from this one. I just don't see how we grow from it. And I said, Bob was named Bob. I said, Bob, anytime in my life, any intelligent person could have laid out six to seven big challenges that existed at that moment.   And the next word shouldn't be there for it should be. And yet we grew and I'll come back to what we just went through. Imagine in 2019, we had this conversation and we were completely Pressy. And you would have said, Peter, we're going to have COVID, we're going to have a shutdown of a third of the economy. We're going to have riots in our cities. We're going to have Congress, can't get along.   We're going to have a highly contentious election. They're going to be in the Capitol building. What have I missed? Right. Inflation oil prices at a hundred and whatever, a barrel, excuse me. And you would've said therefore, in 2019, if you were completely prescient, you just said, therefore, we can't grow. I'd come back to you and say, Jesse grew three and a half percent. In spite of imagine what we do when we only have a short list of those things.   So I think if I had one message, that's it. And therefore, if you're in the real estate business, you're in the business of satisfying that growth, right? That's what our business is when you come down to it, you're in the business. And so, you know, could there be a bad period, then there's been bad periods. The amazing thing is how short they are and how shallow they are. They don't seem short while they're going on. It's like when you have the flu or COVID, it doesn't seem like short when you got, but when you look back, it's a blip and it doesn't seem that minor.   But when it's done, I had two hip replacements and it was not fun as you're doing it. But, you know, in the big scheme of life, there was nothing particularly same with the economy and its downs.   Jesse (44m 22s): I like that in spite of not therefore. And the reason I was laughing is because I remember two, two and a half years ago being in an office and we were talking, it was right at the pinnacle of coworking and we work. And we just said to the other brokers were like, I don't understand how they can continue to do this. And we said, well, barring, any geopolitical event or global pandemic. I swear to God, somebody said this in the meeting, you know, then, you know, we'll see what happens. And then what happens a year later? And it turns out that, you know, we worked a little bit of a different story, but the office market looks like it's coming back.   Coworking looks like it's going through a shift. But I really liked that in spite of that is a glass half full.   Peter (45m 2s): That would be, if I had one message, I'd hope everybody would take one message. It's not, therefore it's in spite of. And by the way, think about your, I was alive when wage and price controls are going on. Nixon resigned in disgrace. This is the person who had been the speaker of the house a couple of years prior to that is suddenly the president. And by the way, you know, we had just finished Vietnam and, and, and inflation is high and taxes are high.   And we grew over, you know, when you kind of, holy cow, this is a powerful machine. It's an insight of machine. Not as therefore machine. Now, obviously if you get a, therefore, if you get a Venezuela, right. That's, that's when it becomes a, therefore we aren't a Venezuela.   Jesse (45m 55s): Yeah. Well, hopefully we're not, we're not tracking the Boulevard here in Canada or the U S but Peter, in terms of, so I want to wrap up, I want to give listeners a way to reach out. Or if, if anybody wants to connect online before we do, we typically ask our guests a couple of questions, I'm going to make these brief. So if you're okay, I'll send these off to you. They're pretty, they're pretty straight forward.   Peter (46m 18s): Okay, great.   Jesse (46m 19s): For younger individuals getting into our industry, what advice would you give to them?   Peter (46m 24s): Reed, Reed, and then whatever you do read more and then whatever you do read. And the only thing I footnote read to include real podcasts like yours, all right. Real thought podcasts, not just, not just political rant podcast, right? Real podcasts. I try to start every morning while I'm doing a little exercise, listening to a podcast outside of my expertise. And so I would include serious podcast in the read category.   You just want to attain knowledge. You want to attain judgment through others. You want to hear what people who are, they may not be smarter than you, but they've got a different set of experiences. They've got a different set of expertise. They're not necessarily right. Get as much of that as you can, and start building your own tapestry of knowledge and insight, which is all these little stuff. I mean, I really need all of these little threads coming together.   Jesse (47m 26s): So the second ties into the first what's a book. I mean, you, you are the author in our industry. What's a book you would recommend for anybody in our industry or outside in general.   Peter (47m 35s): Well, I mean, it's, self-serving that to a young person, it is self-serving, but I would say my book, real estate, finance and investments, if you were to say, this is also self-serving, but I also believe it in they're going to be dramatic changes in how long people live. So Albert Ratner and Mike Rosen, and I have a book coming out in September called degrade age reboot, and it's going to change. It's going to change. I love to come back as it comes out and talk to you with Dr.   Mike. But when it comes out, it will give you insights on what's going on in modern medicine and what it means for our society. And I give you just a snippet, right? A very tiny little snippet. Imagine genetic engineering could eliminate fat, excess fat. Okay. First of all, medical expenditures would go way down healthcare expenditures. We'd have some number like two to $3 trillion more to spend on other stuff.   What do you want to spend it on? Not to mention that. And I'm just being simple on that one. And there's hundreds of you on that one. Gee, I'd want to short WeightWatchers and go long. And Haagen-Dazs because of anything I eat doesn't cause fat because of the genetic engineering, then bring it on Haagen dies. Right? So, I mean, there's so that now, if you said to me a great book that any there's two books that I would recommend that anybody thoughtful and intelligent, I think should be aware of.   One is called fat fullness, F a C T F U L N ESS, by Hans roster. He's now deceased. That's about three years old. And it's an amazing book that talks about how our images of the world are locked in and not reflective of reality. And the reality is generally much better than we think. And the other along the similar lines, but very different is the rational optimist by Matthew Ridley.   And that's probably about eight, nine years old. But the theme of it is the typical person watching this lives massively better than the king of France, you know, in the 14 hundreds. And you go, wow. You know, I live better than the person who resided in Versailles and he gives much more coaching examples. The other thing I would do, I was a big Hans Rosling fan.   There's an amazing YouTube about four minutes long. And if you put in Han's Rosslyn, F R O S L I N G the world growth explained in four minutes or something like that, it's a four minute video that will leave you feeling good at the end.   Jesse (50m 36s): Yeah. We'll put a link up to that. I think I've seen this one before,   Peter (50m 41s): So, but those would be the two books I would kind of think everybody could read.   Jesse (50m 46s): That's great. Okay. Peter, we're at the end here. Our last quick question, I ask every guest, it's usually more interesting with the, the older guests first car make and model.   Peter (50m 55s): Well, wait, first of all, you asking me, I'm not an old guy. Car was a 19 staff and the American motors corporation, green grim.   Jesse (51m 9s): There's a cottage industry. Now of guys collecting those cars, the gremlins.   Peter (51m 13s): Yeah. Mine fell apart. At some point I got, but I got a good, I don't know, eight years out of it, or seven years out of it, something like that seven years, I guess I got out. So it works.   Jesse (51m 24s): Peter. I really will have to have you back on. I really appreciate the, the conversation today for, for any listeners, aside from the website and the Lindemann letter. Is there any other place that you would kind of point them to online?   Peter (51m 37s): That would be the main place go to Lindemann and associates. You've got links to all the stuff we do there, including our charity, our education charity in Kenya, which is a big part of my wife's denies life. And I take a look at that. It's pretty amazing what these kids do. It's hard. It lifts your spirits and keeps you positive. But yeah, that was just going to lend them and associates you'll you'll find us and feel free to get in touch. Thank you.   Jesse (52m 6s): My guest today has been Peter Lindemann, Peter, thanks for being part of working capital.   Peter (52m 9s): My pleasure.   Jesse (52m 18s): Thank you so much for listening to working capital the real estate podcast. I'm your host, Jesse for galley. If you liked the episode, head on to iTunes and leave us a five star review and share on social media, it really helps us out. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out to me on Instagram, Jesse for galley, F R a G a L E, have a good one. Take care.   ...      

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2054 - Wednesday, February 1, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 13, 2022 16:35


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Your Brain on Facts
Apple of Our Eye (ep. 191)

Your Brain on Facts

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 12, 2022 34:16


1-star review shirt! and shirt raising money for Ukraine Red Cross. It's another one of those episodes all about a topic that sounds totally mundane and boring!  Where did apples come from?  Was Johnny Appleseed real?  Why does planting apple seeds lead to disappointment?  And why are some apples considered intellectual property?     Links to all the research resources are on the website. Hang out with your fellow Brainiacs.  Reach out and touch Moxie on Facebook, Twitter,  or Instagram.  Become a patron of the podcast arts! Patreon or Ko-Fi.  Or buy the book and a shirt. Music: Kevin MacLeod, Tabletop Audio, and Steve Oxen.  Want to start a podcast or need a better podcast host?  Get up to TWO months hosting for free from Libsyn with coupon code "moxie." Sponsor: Starfleet Leadership Academy   What's more wholesome and iconic than an apple?  In the Bible, Eve ate an apple and now half of us have to have periods and crap.  In fairness to apples, the Bible just says “fruit” and it was Milton's “Paradise Lost” that declared the fruit was an apple because the Latin word for apple, m-a-l-u-s, is also the word for evil.  There's the Greek myth of Atalanta, who would only marry the man who beat her in a footrace, so Aphrodite helped a Melanion cheat by dropping golden apples that she stopped to pick up.  An apple fell on the head of Isaac Newton, leading to the discovery of gravity – prior to that, everyone weighed a lot less.  The record label that gave the world the Beatles and one of the largest consumer electronics companies in the world use an apple as their logo.  [tiktok] Bonus fact: The Apple computer logo has a bite taken out of it so it isn't mistaken for a cherry, which I don't think would really have been so great a danger, and is *not a nod to Alan Turing, the famous mathematician who helped Britain win WWII but was hounded by that same government for being gay and took his own life with a poisoned apple.  Steve Jobs and co repeatedly said they wished it was that clever.   We say something is “as American as apple pie” and even though Ralph Waldo Emerson dubbed apples “the American fruit,” the tasty, sweet malus domestica as you're used to it is about as native to North America as white people.  That's not to say there was nothing of the genus malus in the new world; there was the crabapple, a small, hard, exceedingly tart apple, which is better used for adding the natural thickener pectin to preserves than anything.   The story of apples actually begins in Kazakhstan, in central Asia east of the Caspian Sea.  Malus sieversii is a wild apple, native to Kazakhstan's Tian Shan Mountains, where they have been growing over millions of years and where they can still be found fruiting today.  There's evidence of Paleolithic people harvesting and using native crabapples 750,000 years ago, give or take a week.  The original wild apples grew in ‘apple forests' at the foot of the snow-tipped mountains, full of different shapes,sizes and flavors, most of them bad.  Kazakhstan is hugely proud of its fruity history.  The former capital city of Almaty claimed the honor of ‘birth place of the apple' about 100 years ago.  Seems a suitable sobriquet since the name ‘Almaty' was previously recorded as ‘Alma-Ata' which translates from Kazakh as ‘Father of the Apples,' though in Latin Alma means mother or nurturer, which feels more fitting but that's beside the point.   This origin story was not without controversy, but what am I here for if not to teach the controversy?  In 1929, Russian scientist Nikolai Vavilov first traced the apple genome. He identified the primary ancestor of most cultivars of the domesticated apple to be the ancient apple tree: Malus sieversii. There used to be some controversy over this, but it has since been confirmed, through detailed DNA testing, and a full sequencing of the genome, as recently as 2010.   It was probably birds and traveling mammal species that initially transported apple seeds out of Kazakhstan long before humans started to cultivate them – by eating the apples and then pooping out the seeds.  By 1500 BC apple seeds had been carried throughout Europe by the Greeks, Etruscans, and Romans.  Bloody Romans.  What have they ever done for us?  I mean apart from the sanitation, the medicine, education, wine, public order, irrigation, roads, a fresh water system, and public health, what have the Romans really ever done for us?  Oh yeah, apples.  The Romans discovered apples growing in Syria and were central in dispersing them around the world from there, using the Silk Road as a means of transport from East to West.  Romans were a fair hand at grafting, taking a cutting from one apple variety and attaching it to a rootstock (young roots and trunk) from another tree – more on that later.  As such, the Romans started to grow apples in Europe and Britain that were bigger, sweeter, and tastier than any before.  Let's not forget variety.  There are a whopping 2,170 English cultivars of malus domestica alone.     Apples arrived in the new world first with the Spanish in the warm bits and then with English settlers in the cooler bits, which when I say it sounds like it was done on purpose.  Ask an American child how apples spread across the nascent US and they'll tell you it was Johnny Appleseed.  We tend to learn about him around the time we learn about “tall tales,” i.e. American folklore –stories like the giant lumberjack Paul Bunyan and his blue ox, or John Henry, who could hammer railroad spikes in ahead of a moving train – so it can be a little tricky to be sure if Johnny Appleseed is real or not.  Don't feel bad, a friend of mine just learned that narwhals were real the other year when she wanted to be one in a cryptid-themed burlesque show.    Johnny Appleseed, real name John Chapman, was a real person, though naturally some aspects of his life were mythologized over time.  Details are sparse on his early life, but we know that Chapman was born in Massachusetts in 1774 and planted his first apple tree trees in the Allegheny Valley in Pennsylvania in his mid-twenties.  He then began traveling west through Ohio, planting as he went.  These were frontier times.  We're talking about a good 70 years before the transcontinental railroad, so much of the area he went through did not yet have white settlers in it, but Chapman seems to have a knack for predicting where they would settle and planting nurseries in those spots.  Chapman was also a devout follower of the mystical teachings of Swedish theologian Emanuel Swedenborg, and he tried to spread Swedenborgian doctrine as well.  People were open to some parts of it, like kindness to all animals, even the unpleasant ones.   The apples that Chapman brought to the frontier were completely distinct from the apples available at any modern grocery store or farmers' market, and they weren't primarily used for eating, but for making hard apple cider.  Cider was a mainstay item for the same reason people drank beer at breakfast, because it was safer than the water supply.  This didn't actually apply as much in the not-yet-destroyed frontier as it had back in London, but old habits die hard.    I've often wondered why cider is such a staple beverage in the UK, but only resurfaced in the last 20 or so years here in the States, where we have to specify hard cider” because the word “cider” normally means a glorious, thick, flavorful unfiltered apple juice you only get in the fall.  It's thanks to the colossal failure that was that “noble experiment,” Prohibition, when some people didn't like drinking and told the rest of us we couldn't either.   "Up until Prohibition, an apple grown in America was far less likely to be eaten than to wind up in a barrel of cider," writes Michael Pollan in The Botany of Desire. "In rural areas cider took the place of not only wine and beer but of coffee and tea, juice, and even water."  The cider apples are small and unpleasant to eat, so they were really only good for cider-making.  As such, during Prohibition, cider apple trees were often chopped down by FBI agents, effectively erasing cider, along with Chapman's true history, from American life.   But Johnny “Appleseed” Chapman wouldn't know anything about all that.  Within his own lifetime, tales of his activities began to circulate.  Most of these focused on his wilderness skills and his remarkable physical endurance.  Chapman cut an eccentric figure.  He wore a sack with holes for his head and arms rather than a proper shirt and after he'd worn through multiple pairs of shoes, he gave up and went barefoot.  Perhaps his most distinct feature, the one always included in drawings, apart from a bag of apple seeds, is his soup pot, just about his only possession, which he wore on his head like a hat.   Starting in 1792, the Ohio Company of Associates made an offer of 100 acres of land to anyone willing to make a homestead on the wilderness beyond Ohio's first permanent settlement.  These homesteads had to be permanent; no pitching a tent and saying ‘where's my land?'  To prove their homesteads were the real deal, settlers were required to plant 50 apple trees and 20 peach trees in three years.  Since an average apple tree took roughly ten years to bear fruit, you wouldn't bother unless you were in it for the long haul.  He might have looked like a crazy hermit, but Chapman realized that if he could do the difficult work of planting these orchards, he could sell them for a handsome profit to incoming frontiersmen.  “On this week's episode of Frontier Flipper, Johnny plants an orchard…again.”  Wandering from Pennsylvania to Illinois, Chapman would advance just ahead of settlers, cultivating orchards that he would sell them when they arrived, and then head to more undeveloped land.     That was very clever.  What wasn't clever was Chapman growing apples from seed at all.  This is the bit about grafting, in case you were jumping around looking for it.  Statistically, at least one person was really waiting for this part.  Apple trees don't grow “true-to-type,” as WSU tree fruit breeder Kate Evans explains. That means that if you were to plant, for instance, Red Delicious seeds in your backyard, you wouldn't get Red Delicious apples, not that you'd want to, but more on that later.  Boy, what a tease.  Instead, planting and breeding means matching a scion to a rootstock.  The scion is the fruiting part of the tree – most of what you actually see. The rootstock is everything that goes in the ground, as well as the first few inches of the trunk.  Buds from one variety are attached to the rootstock of another and they grow into a tree that will produce apples. But matching up the scion and rootstock isn't enough to grow good apples. You also need a tree to act as a pollinator.  “If you don't have good pollination, you can end up with misshapen or small unattractive fruit,” says Jim McFerson, director of the Wenatchee extension. Up to ten percent of an orchard can be pollinators, and most today are crabapple trees.  Apple trees cannot normally pollinate themselves.  Unlike, say, peaches, which can and do self-pollinate, predictably producing peaches virtually identical to the parents, the viable seeds (or pips) will produce apples which don't resemble the parents.  This requirement for pollination is how there have come to be so many varieties in the world, at least 20k and that's a conservative estimate.   For context, there are only two varieties of commercial banana and just one kiwifruit.    Grafting was an established way of propagating apples and was commonly done in New England, so why didn't Chapman do that?  Apart from the fact that it's easier to travel with just seeds and planting is faster than graftering, as a member of the Swedenborgian Church, Chapman was forbidden from cutting two trees to cobble together a new tree and it was thought to make the plants suffer.  John “Johnny Appleseed” Chapman died in Fort Wayne, Indiana, in 1845, having planted apple trees as far west as Illinois or Iowa.   A century later, in 1948, Disney solidified his legend with an animated version of his life.  The cartoon emphasized his Christian faith, but conveniently left out all the Swedenborgian stuff. MIDROLL Speaking of varieties, as well we might, what would you guess the most popular apple variety has been for the past, say, 70 years?  The apple whose name is half-lying but unfortunately it's lying about the important half, the Red Delicious.  They are the most iconic apple across most of the world.  Don't believe me, just check emoji packs in other countries.  Their appearance is the whole reason these apples exist, with their deep, even red color and dimpled bottom that look so enticing in the produce department; it's also the reason they suck and are terrible.  They taste of wet cardboard and have the mouthfeel of resentment.  Their flavor and texture were sacrificed for botanical vanity and shippability.   Even apple growers hate them.  Mike Beck, who tends 80 acres of apples at Uncle John's Cider Mill, admits he grows some Red Delicious to add color to some of his ciders, but he won't eat them.    The Red Delicious was first called the Hawkeye, and one Jesse Hiatt found it growing as a random sapling on his Iowa farm around 1870.  The fruit that eventual tree produced was sweet and fruity, but it wasn't red, rather red and yellow-striped, like an heirloom tomato.  Of course, back then, those were just called tomatoes.   It was introduced to the market in 1874 and the rights to the Hawkeye apple were sold to the Stark Brothers Nursery, whose owner thought it was the best apple he'd ever tasted.  By 1914, Stark's renamed the variety Red Delicious, and over time, produced a fruit with less yellow and more red year over year.  It also gained its buxom top-heavy shape and five little feet nubs on the bottom.   As with any product, it took a hefty shovelful of marketing for Red Delicious to gain a following, but gain it did.  Current estimates have Red Delicious being 90% of the apple crop at one point.  That point happened in the 1950s, thanks to that force of nature, changes in buying habits.  PreWWII, people would buy food right from the farm or at farmers markets, then the modern grocery store, with its cold storage, and the refrigerated truck courtesy of Frederick Jones.  Bigger stores need to move more product and a big pyramid of shiny, sports car red apples by the front window will really bring the punters in.  Growers could sell them to packers, who in turn sold them to those grocery store chains, which also fueled a change in their taste.  Orchardists bred and crossbreed the Red Delicious to get that perfect shape and color, uniformity and resilience to handling and shipping; they just left off tiny considerations, very minor concessions really, like taste and texture.   But there's change a-foot again.  People began to realize you can have an apple in your pack lunch or the big bowl at the fancy hotel reception desk that you'd actually want to eat.  Now we're all about those Sweet Tangos, Braseburns, and Honeycrips.  Unwilling or unable to admit defeat, however, the Red Delicious is still out there.  But like a lot of has-beens, its seeing more success abroad than at home, and they're exported to the western Pacific Rim, Mexico and parts of Europe.      Apart from random saplings popping up randomly, new varieties of apples take a lot of people a lot of time and effort, to say nothing of a robust research & development budget.  Take Washington State University Tree Fruit Research and Extension Center, for example.  In 1981, now-retired horticulturist Bruce Barritt set out to create an apple bred for flavor and long storage instead of appearance, to compete with the Fuji from Japan and the Gala from New Zealand.  Like breeding animals, you start with two parents with known traits, then selectively breed for the ones you want over the course of several generations.  You have to have the patience of a Buddhist monk, since apple trees take four to five years to bear fruit and you know whether or not it worked.  Barritt needed that patience to eventually create the apple that actually made mainstream, even international, news in 2019 – the Cosmic Crisp.  These are no small potatoes, either.  There's probably a French language joke in there.  The marketing budget alone is $10 million.  A $10mil marketing budget….for an apple.     Cosmic Crisps are mostly a dark-ish red with yellowy speckles reminiscent of stars.  The website, did I mention it has its own website, says [commercial read] “The large, juicy apple has a remarkably firm and crisp texture. Some say it snaps when you bite into it!  The Cosmic Crisp® flavor profile is the perfect balance of sweet and tart, making it ideal for snacking, baking, cooking, juicing or any other way you like to enjoy apples.”  Hire me for voiceovers at moxielabouche.com for lightning-fast voiceovers because I was one time hit by lightning.   The first Cosmic Crisp seed began in 1997 with pollen from a Honeycrisp flower, applied by hand to the stigma of an Enterprise.  Racy stuff.  Honeycrisp as we know are lovely and Enterprise apples were known for disease-resistance and long storage life.  Storage life is important because an apple has to be as good in late spring as it was when it was picked in the fall, as most to all of the apples you buy are.  Yep, all apples are picked at once and sold for months to come.  Holding up in winter storage is one of malus domestica's best features.  If that bothers you on principle, though, don't look up harvesting oranges for juice – it's positively depressing.      After two years of greenhouse germination, the very first Cosmic Crisp trees were planted, and a few years later after that, fruit happened.  That was when, according to Barritt, the real work began.  He'd go through the orchard, randomly picking apples and taking a bite. “Most were terrible, but when I found one with good texture and flavor, I'd pick 10 or 20 of them. Then I put them in cold storage to see how they would hold up after a few months,” he told PopSci in 2018.  Barritt's team would compare the apples for crispness, acidity, firmness, how well it stored, and on and on anon, to determine which trees to cross with which and start the cycle all over again.  They weren't testing only Honeycrisp and Enterprise, but lots of crisp varieties – Honeycrisp is just the one that worked.  It took until 2017, a full 20 years after the first seeds went in the ground, for Cosmic Crisp trees to become available to growers, to say nothing of the fruit reaching the public.  The project actually outlived Barritt's participation, when he retired back in 2008 and turned everything over to WSU horticulture professor Kate Evans.   There's still the question of why, why spend literally hundreds of millions of dollars to create a new apple?  This wasn't about developing a product to sell and make money, it was about saving an entire region's industry.  The pacific northwest farmed Red Delicious apples like there was no tomorrow and in the 90's, tomorrow got real uncertain.  In the last three years of the decade, farmers lost around $760mil with fields full of fruit fewer and fewer folks wanted to fork over their funds for.  That was the problem that Barritt set out to solve.  They needed an apple that had it all - movie star good looks, full of flavor with a crunchy bit.  By the end of 2019, Washington farmers were growing 12,000 acres of Cosmic Crisp trees and there's talk of Cosmic Crisp's having a strong chance at taking over the market.   If you have a bit of land and want to grow your own Cosmic Crisp, you going to have to wait even longer than usual.  It's only available to grower in WA for the first ten years to give the growers an advantage.  Remember, you can't plant seeds and get a tree that gives you fruit like the one you ate to get the seeds.  Don't worry, just five more years.     But you can't, like, own a tree man.  I can but that's because I'm not a penniless hippie.  Sorry, Futurama moment, but the point still stands.  Because this is America and we've never seen a person, place, thing, or idea we didn't want to legally own and monetize.  We're talking about patents and before I go any further, do you have any idea what a pain it is to search for apple patents and *not get results about Apple the company.  According to the US Patent and Trademark Office, “a plant patent is granted …to an inventor … who has invented or discovered and asexually reproduced a distinct and new variety of plant, other than a tuber propagated plant or a plant found in an uncultivated state. The grant, which lasts for 20 years from the date of filing the application, protects the inventor's right to exclude others from asexually reproducing, selling, or using the plant so reproduced.”  So if you make a variety of plant that no one else has ever made, or at least no one has patented, you have ultra-dibs for 20 and no one else is supposed to breed, sell, or do anything else with plants of that variety.   Plant patents became a thing in the early 1930's, a fine time in American agriculture *sough*dustbowl*cough* first granted to Henry Bosenberg for a CLIMBING OR TRAILING ROSE (USPP1 P).  Since then, thousands of plant patents have been granted, and that includes apples.  Apples as intellectual property.  The beloved Honeycrisp was patented in the late 1980's by the University of Minnesota.  The Honeycrisp blossomed in popularity, pun allowed, among consumers, both grocery shoppers and growers.  Nurseries would sell the trees to anyone who called and ordered one, but since it was patented, buuuut growers would have to pay a royalty of one dollar per tree to the University of Minnesota until the patent has expired.  With an average size of 50 acres per orchard and 36 trees per acre, that only comes to $1800, which isn't too, too bad.  A much tighter rein was kept on University of Minnesota's patented MINNEISKA, which produces the SweeTango apple.  Only a small group of apple growers has been given license to grow this variety of apple and they have to pay royalties as well.  UM also has multiple trademarks registered, so anyone who tries to sell an apple under that name or a similar one may find themselves in court.  Now how about them apples?  Hey, at least I waited until the end. Sources: https://historicsites.nc.gov/all-sites/horne-creek-farm/southern-heritage-apple-orchard/apples/apple-history/origins-apples https://www.americanscientist.org/article/the-mysterious-origin-of-the-sweet-apple https://www.theorchardproject.org.uk/blog/where-do-apples-come-from/ https://www.britannica.com/story/was-johnny-appleseed-a-real-person https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/real-johnny-appleseed-brought-applesand-booze-american-frontier-180953263/ https://www.nwpb.org/2017/05/03/want-to-grow-an-apple-tree-dont-start-with-apple-seeds/ https://www.popsci.com/story/diy/cosmic-crisp-apple-guide/ https://www.huffpost.com/entry/red-delicious-apples-suck_n_5b630199e4b0b15abaa061af https://suiter.com/how-do-you-like-them-apples-enough-to-patent-them/ https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2017/04/30/526069512/paradise-lost-how-the-apple-became-the-forbidden-fruit https://www.businessinsider.com/cosmic-crisp-apple-washington-state-scientists-2020-11 https://suiter.com/how-do-you-like-them-apples-enough-to-patent-them/  

Your Russian Mother

Statistically, the biggest dealbreaker in most relationships is finances. And with society changing it's views on women, does it actually mean things are equal for women and men? And, also, why does everyone have to be the same? In this episode, we discuss how this new term "50/50" is yet another tool of the patriarchy discreetly reasserting it's dominance. Let's go to the sociological facts!

Being Jim Davis
Episode 2052 - Monday, January 30, 1984

Being Jim Davis

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 11, 2022 18:24


Welcome! There are many episodes of Being Jim Davis. Statistically speaking, this one is unlikely to be either the first or the last. Your hosts for today's episode were Christopher Winter and Jonathan Gibson. Are there fine Being Jim Davis-themed wares available for sale in the Pitch Drop Store? We'll never tell... Today's strip Become a Patron! Or visit these other fine internet URLs: BJD Homepage | BJD Twitter | BJD Facebook Page | Pitchdrop Network Homepage

Uncomplicate Your Business | Small Business Strategy for Women Entrepreneurs
The #1 Mistake Keeping Women Entrepreneurs from Predictably Profitable Business

Uncomplicate Your Business | Small Business Strategy for Women Entrepreneurs

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 7, 2022 41:09


Statistically, 80% of new businesses are going to fail within the first few years… so how do you make sure that you're going to beat the odds and succeed? How do you make sure your business is going to stick it out through the startup stages to get to the success stage where you're finally making consistent revenue? It comes down to FOCUS. In this episode, I'm going to share how you can get more focused so you can achieve your business goals. It's all about simplifying your business strategy. https://rachealcook.com/predictably-profitable-business/

The Christian Hunters of America Podcast
Ep. #29. Combatting Veteran suicide with HarvestLand TV

The Christian Hunters of America Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 4, 2022 63:44


In this episode we speak with Albert Lenerville from HarvestLand TV.   Albert had a calling and has created his program trying to help prevent Veteran suicides.   His program has the ability to take veterans hunting and fishing, supply them fishing poles, and impact their lives in a positive light. Sometimes it just takes little moments to make a positive impact in someone's life. America is currently losing more veterans who return to civilian life than in combat zone and unfortunately loses more people to suicide than any conflict for the last few decades. Statistically, veterans are at a higher risk of suicide than their civilian counter parts. Even if veterans currently serving do not have suicide ideation, they are still at a higher risk when they leave military service.  If you'd like to help this cause please reach Albert through these links    https://www.patreon.com/harvestlandtv https://instagram.com/harvestlandtv?utm_medium=copy_link 

The WeatherJazz® Podcast
Episode #313: April 1st Snowfalls

The WeatherJazz® Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 1, 2022 21:07


Statistically, how cruel is the atmosphere in tossing snow our way on April the 1st? We'll look at the stats for Cleveland. And, are you someone who keeps a journal? You're not alone. Some VERY big names have done the same in their lifetimes.The "Who's Who" of journal keepers comimng up today, on WeatherJazz®! --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/andrebernier/support

ReachMD CME
Emerging Therapies in UC

ReachMD CME

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 31, 2022


CME credits: 0.25 Valid until: 31-03-2023 Claim your CME credit at https://reachmd.com/programs/cme/emerging-therapies-in-uc/13566/ There are over a half dozen newer and emerging classes of agents for ulcerative colitis. This abundance is great news for our patients, but it also increases the complexity of treatment. Listen in as Dr. Neil Nandi and Dr. Jean-Frederic Colombel explore the roles that these agents will play in the evolving treatment landscape. Since the completion of this activity, results from the ELEVATE UC 52 study, a yearlong phase 3 trial of etrasimod in moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, were announced. Etrasimod is an investigational, oral, once-a-day, selective sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator that showed positive 12- and 52-week results compared to placebo. Patients achieved statistically significant improvements in the co-primary endpoint of clinical remission at weeks 12 and 52 when compared to placebo. Statistically significant improvements were also attained in all key secondary endpoints at both 12 and 52 weeks. We will provide more data as the full results are published and presented in the future.

ReachMD CME
Weighing the Evidence: A Case-Based Review in Ulcerative Colitis

ReachMD CME

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 25, 2022


CME credits: 0.25 Valid until: 25-03-2023 Claim your CME credit at https://reachmd.com/programs/cme/weighing-the-evidence-a-case-based-review-in-ulcerative-colitis/13439/ The proliferation of new classes of therapies for ulcerative colitis is affecting how we decide which treatments are most appropriate for our patients who are first- or second-line non-responders. This creates not only new challenges, but also new opportunities for all community gastroenterologists. Dr. Neil Nandi and Dr. David Rubin walk us through a case to highlight some of these challenges. Since the completion of this activity, results from the ELEVATE UC 52 study, a yearlong phase 3 trial of etrasimod in moderate to severe ulcerative colitis, were announced. Etrasimod is an investigational, oral, once-a-day, selective sphingosine 1-phosphate (S1P) receptor modulator that showed positive 12- and 52-week results compared to placebo. Patients achieved statistically significant improvements in the co-primary endpoint of clinical remission at weeks 12 and 52 when compared to placebo. Statistically significant improvements were also attained in all key secondary endpoints at both 12 and 52 weeks. We will provide more data as the full results are published and presented in the future.

Talking Benefits
Benefits Bonus: Supporting Women's Retirement Security

Talking Benefits

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 22, 2022 8:02


Statistically women save less than men for retirement for a number of reasons. We discuss how employers can help narrow that gap in this episode. Read Cara's blog and other great Word on Benefits Blog posts here: https://blog.ifebp.org/ Find great retirement news and education resources here: https://www.ifebp.org/retirement-pensions/Pages/default.aspx And here: https://www.ifebp.org/microsite/Pages/default.aspx

Your Kickstarter Sucks
Episode 243: Kiosk Krazy

Your Kickstarter Sucks

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2022 107:26


It's Arts and Crafts Time, It's Arts and Crafts Time…It's time to make…this hat! On today's show, appropriately enough, we are talking about the devilish ways of Nature's Demons: Children, as JF has a showdown at the D&B Corral with the Token Ticket Coward. Also, ever wonder when we're gonna get Capitalism II? Yeah, we did too. It's so good. We invented it! Plus we got a tree that grows on your computer, a type of doll you can make whoopee with, and some real Iron Man tech if Tony Stark had like $56 instead of a million trillion. Spin your luck now! And download this shit!Music for YKS is courtesy of Howell Dawdy, Craig Dickman, Mr. Baloney, and Mark Brendle. Additional research by Zeke Golvin. YKS is edited by Producer Dan. Executive Producer lola butt.Need more YKS? Yup, yup. Heard it a million times before. People want more YKS but they don't know where to get it. Well how about this. Sign up for YKS Premium on Patreon and download all the extra episodes you want. Hey it's only $5! Which is probably worth like $4 now a days. So who cares!Oh yeah, and you can come see us LIVE at Zanies on April 20th when the Doughboys come to town! Grab your tickets here, but just a heads up you can only buy 8 per person. Sucks!This week's episode of YKS is sponsored by these fine folks:NordVPN You already know!!! You already know!! Get an exclusive discount and a month for free and a gift on top of it all at NordVPN.com/YKS or when you use the code YKS at checkout.Faherty - Go JF Style on the sweater game with Faherty and shove it in everyone's face who said you didn't have nice sweaters and couldn't pick out a nice sweater if your life depended on it. Get 20% off your order at FahertyBrand.com when you use promo code YKS at checkout. Diet Smoke - Hey maaaaan, wanna get high? Statistically speaking, your answer to this question is most likely, “yes”. But sometimes we just can't afford to go to the damn moon. We got stuff to do later! That's where Diet Smoke comes in. A reasonable (and legal!) high that tastes like candy. Folks we're in Jetsons territory here. Use code YKS20 at checkout for 20% off your order at DietSmoke.com – and then keep on using it. YKS20 is good forever!Honey - Now I've done a good job listing the discount codes we'd like for you to use up there. But the truth is, not everyone is so good at getting the word out. That's why they invented Honey – let the cute little app go lookin', so you don't have to. He needs something to do! Download Honey now for free at JoinHoney.com/YKS and start finding your discounts today. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

What Would Danbury Do?
34. The Impoverished Nobleman's Pale Wallflower

What Would Danbury Do?

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 21, 2022 47:36


Our quartet is coming to a close with the straight-talking, pale-looking, wallflower-being, cello-playing Iris [f21] who is sceptical but pleased to be focus of the attention of Sir Richard Kensworthy [m??]. However, after a whirlwind courtship, a little planned compromising, and a quick marriage, Iris arrives at Sir Richard's estate to find that things are not all that they seem, and love at first sight may actually have been ‘unlikely to say no' at first sight. It's all about the secrets in this final episode of WWDD Season 4: who has them, who's keeping them, and who's about to let them out… Featuring: - The sister's secret baby - Determined non-consummation - Convenient geographical distance - Team Flower Names! - Passive aggressive breakfasts - Terrible Sex Intros - Dogs and arrows and unicorns and kings - Intertextual bombshells - Adele throwing Rudi under the bus Here are is the media we talk about in this episode: - One Dance with a Duke - Tessa Dare - Nine Rules to Break When Romancing a Rake - - Sarah MacLean - Never Judge a Lady by her Cover - Sarah MacLean - The Viscount Who Loved Me - Julia Quinn - The Smythe-Smith Quartet - Julia Quinn - Just Like Heaven - Julia Quinn - A Night Like This - Julia Quinn - The Sum of All Kisses - Julia Quinn - The Secrets of Sir Richard Kenworthy - Julia Quinn - It's in His Kiss - Julia Quinn - Center Stage, the film - Miss Butterworth and the Mad Baron, a graphic novel - Julia Quinn & Violet Charles This week, the straight-talking but secretly warm-hearted godmother we all need, Lady Danbury, hears from Ashton from Alexis Daria's You Had Me at Hola, who has a deep secret and a new girlfriend. How do you balance intimacy and privacy when the stakes are really high? You can find out more about You Had Me At Hola here. If you would like to send us a What Would Danbury Do, simply record a voice memo on your phone with the letter and send it to us at bridgertonpod@gmail.com. We would love to hear from you and Lady Danbury is always prepared. Don't forget you can find us on twitter and facebook @bridgertonpod and instagram @wwddpod and join the conversation using the hashtag #WWDDpod. You can also leave us a rating or review on your favourite podcast provider, including Spotify! Statistically, people who leave reviews have just really good butts. We're delighted to bring you information about The Guilty Pleasure Game Show, part of the Frolic Podcast Network! Just like the 90's, guilt-free pleasure is coming back! On this show, authors and co-hosts Laura Lovely and Lindsay Emory quiz your favorite authors, podcasters, and cool creatives about all the things they love, and no one feels bad about any of it! Come find your next guilty pleasure and the people who will celebrate it with you. You can find this fast and fun show at your favorite podcast app or at guiltypleasuregameshow.com This episode was recorded on the traditional and unceded land of the Gadigal, Wurundjeri and Boonwurrung people and edited by Rudi Bremer on Gadigal country. What Would Danbury Do is a proud member of Frolic Media. You can find great romance content and other fantastic podcasts by visiting the Frolic site.

Off The Charts Football Podcast
How Should We Statistically Evaluate College Players?

Off The Charts Football Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2022 35:44


On this episode of the Off The Charts Football Podcast, Mark Simon (@MarkASimonSays) and Matt Manocherian (@mattmano) are joined by Alex Vigderman (@vigmanoncampus) of the SIS R&D team to take a look at the upcoming NFL Draft from a statistical perspective. They look at how our scouting grades match up with eventual player production (0:35), what we can glean about this group of QBs (10:40), give a refresher on Total Points and look at a player that has fared well in that stat (20:04), compare Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux within the larger context of evaluating edge rushers (22:41), examine how we evaluate offensive line play (27:45), and discuss the next frontier in statistical evaluation of college players in terms of what we can do at SIS (32:26). Thanks for listening. You can email the show with feedback at offthecharts@sportsinfosolutions.com and don't forget to follow on Twitter @SportsInfo_SIS and Instagram @sportsinfosolutions. For more, check out: sportsinfosolutions.com SISDataHub.com

Sports Daily
The NCAA Tournament's 8/9 matchups

Sports Daily

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2022 7:22


Bruce and Jacob talk this year's 8 seed vs. 9 seed matchups in the Big Dance. Statistically the toughest to call...

Bondcast...James Bondcast!
Rocky IV (w/ Juel Taylor & Tony Rettenmaier)

Bondcast...James Bondcast!

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 14, 2022 122:36


If we ever needed someone to stop Russia again...NOW IS THE TIME.Rocky Balboa returns once again to battle his greatest foe yet: THE SOVIET UNION.Statistically, this movie is 33% montage, which is a tactic that most movies should employ. Imagine how much tighter "The Batman" could have been if most of it was just Batman kicking ass to several full-length needle drops! Joining us for this masterpiece are TWO very special guests, writers Juel Taylor & Tony Rettenmaier (Creed II, Space Jam: A New Legacy, They Cloned Tyrone)If you're a fan of this show then you should definitely subscribe to our Patreon for just $1 at www.patreon.com/L2W today!

Converge Media Network
CMN The Factorz TV Ep. 11

Converge Media Network

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2022 34:36


In this episode, The Factorz discuss: 1 National holiday twins bday 2 Emmett till anti-lynching bill passed after 200 attempts 3 First generations Seattlites elders say "moving to Seattle was the best thing they ever did" 4 Statistically black pets are least likely to be adopted 5 Ukraine and Russia 6 Blacks and Africans is this your war 7 WIAA and a history of racism? 8 CD Panthers X Seahawks X Nike team uo 9. Seahawks trade Russ

Mosaic Boston
God's Kindness

Mosaic Boston

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 13, 2022 45:27


Audio Transcript: This media has been made available by Mosaic Boston Church. If you'd like to check out more resources, learn about Mosaic Boston and our neighborhood churches, or donate to this ministry, please visit mosaicboston.com. Heavenly Father, we thank you for the blessing it is to gather as your people. We don't take this blessing for granted, we recognize that there are people in other parts of the country that do not have this blessing, they cannot gather and worship you. In particular, Lord, we think of the people in Ukraine and we pray for a miraculous intervention of the Holy Spirit for peace there, and we also pray for a tremendous revival to come, for souls to be saved, for people to enter the kingdom of God. Also, we do pray for our church, we thank you, Holy Spirit, for stirring, we pray you continue to stir, continue to set our hearts on fire so that we don't just receive the blessings, but think about how we can extend the blessings to those who don't yet have them. Bless our time, the Holy scriptures today, and as we meditate on your kindness, Lord, we thank you for it. And we thank you for the kindness of your blessings, and the kindness that sometimes you give us up to our sins in order to awaken us to our need for you. We thank you, Lord, for that. And all of your kindness is meant to lead us to repentance and obedience of faith. We pray that you bless our time, the Holy scriptures, we pray this in Jesus name, Amen. We're going through a sermon series in the epistle of Romans. Today, we're in Romans 2:1-5, the title of the sermon is God's kindness, just to catch you up on the train of thought, Saint Paul begins this train of thought in verse 16, 17, wherein he says, "Look, I'm not ashamed of the gospel for it's power, it's power of God unto salvation for all who believe to the Jew first," he says, "And also to the Greek and the Gentile." He starts with the Jew first, because these are God's covenant people, Israel, they got all the blessings, they got so much revelation, and Saint Paul, his ministry was he'd go into cities and the first thing he would do is preach in synagogues. He's not ashamed of the gospel, he's not ashamed before Jews, he's not ashamed before Gentiles, and he hears specifically, the hinge to understand the transition between Romans 2:1-5 and Romans 1:24-32. The hinge is the fact that God's kindness is meant to lead us to repentance. Sometimes, that kindness includes wrath, that God sends short term wrath in our life difficulties in our life to bring us to the point where we get on our knees and we cry out for God to help us. And then the same kindness, he says, God gives to the Jewish people, the kindness of his word, the kindness of the prophets, and he's like, "Look, Jewish people, you need the gospel as well." Something similar happens in the story of the prodigal son. So the story of the prodigal son is the Father has two sons and the youngest son comes to the father and he says, "You know what, dad? I wish you were dead. I would prefer that you were dead, I want my inheritance right now," and what's most remarkable... That text, the father gives it to him. The Father gives into this demand, the son takes the money, and he goes, and he squanders it, and then he hits rock bottom, and Luke 15:17-19 says when he came to himself, when he came to his senses, when he came to his true self and his need for, when he came to his self, he said, "How many of my father's hired servants have more than enough bread, but I perish here with hunger? And I will rise and go to my Father, and I will say to him, "Father, I have sinned against heaven and before you, I am no longer worthy to call your son, treat me as one of your hired servants." The son returns home, the father's waiting, he's waiting at the door every evening, every morning, he'd go to the door and he's waiting to see his son. He sees his son and it says the father ran, which is shocking because antiquity men, especially older men, patriarchs, they don't run, you don't run. You can sprint, sprinting is good for you, extended cardio, not so good for men, you can look up the science. So he runs, he embraces, he kisses him, he welcomes him, he puts a robe upon him, he puts a ring on his finger, he puts shoes on his feet, and he throws a party, and he kills a lamb, there's meat, and there's music, and there's dancing, and there's celebration. And then the older brother, he's coming back from a long day's work, he's working in his father's fields. He comes back and he hears, "What's that sound?" And he finds out from servant, there's a party going on, and they explain to him what happened. And he's welcomed in, refuses to go in because he's so infuriated at his father's grace to the youngest son. The father now goes and pursues the older brother and he's like, "Hey, come in," and then here's the exchange, Luke 15:29-32, he answered his father, "Look, these many years I've... Prostitutes. You killed the fattened calf for him," and he said to him, "Son, you are always with me, and all that is mine is yours. It was fitting to celebrate and be glad for this, your brother was dead and is alive, he has lost and is found." Romans 1 addresses the younger brother, the unrighteous, the ones who God gave them up to their sins. Romans 2 addresses the older brothers who think they don't need grace, who think that they have been obedient, that they are good people. Paul pauses here and the hinge is, hey, everyone needs grace, everyone needs to repent and believe. And that brings us to our text in Romans 2:1-5, would you look at the text with me? Therefore, you have no excuse, O man, ever, every one of you who judges. For in passing judgment on another, you condemn yourself because you, the judge, practice the very same things. We know that the judgment of God rightly falls on those who practice such things. Do you suppose, O man, you who judge those who practice such things and yet do them yourself, that you will escape the judgment of God? Or do you presume on the riches of his kindness, and forbearance, and patience, not knowing that God's kindness is meant to lead you to repentance? But because of your hard and impenitent heart, you're storing up wrath for yourself on the day of wrath when God's righteous judgment will be revealed." This is the reading of God's only infallible word... Write these eternal truths upon our hearts. Three points to frame up our time, first, self-condemning self-righteousness, then we'll look at God's inescapable true judgment, and then third, the kindness of God's patience. Self-condemning self-righteousness, verse 1, therefore he connects this train of thought with everything he's been saying, he's been giving us a chronicle of sins that God gives people up to, and then he's pausing and says, "Therefore..." He's talking specifically to people that read that list and they're like, "Yeah, Paul, go get those sinners," and then he's like, "Oh, hold on, you think you're so righteous? You're judging those people according to who's standard? According to who's law? Have you lived up to the law yourself?" Therefore, he says, "You have no excuse." There's a shift from a third person, he's been talking about they, and then he turns his attention to you, second person, to you directly. He talked about people who have no excuse because of natural revelation. Natural revelation is you look around creation, and Paul appealing, not just in the mind, but to the soul, knowledge deep inside, truth that we know deep inside, by looking at creation, there's so much evidence that God created everything. To believe that everything came from nothing takes more faith than to believe that God created everything. So he says in chapter one, "You're inexcusable because you've been rejecting God's revelation," and here, he's saying, "You're inexcusable because you have been rejecting God's supernatural revelation," and he's talking to the Jewish people who had God's law, and they had God's code of moral conduct. Objection for this argument, Paul's just appealing to the soul, he's like, "You know," and the objection is, well, what if people don't know that God exists? What if people don't know that there's a moral law on their hearts? What if they just don't know the truth and because they don't know the truth, they can't even suppress the truth? And my response to that is, do you want proof that people know that God exists? Statistically speaking, very few people are even atheists, most people, you ask them, they'll say, "Well, I believe in God." Even the atheists, I know, I talked about this last week, they're angry about God, they're mad at God, so even they know God exists. The fact that so many people do believe in God and do nothing with that knowledge proves this text is true. The fact that people don't devote more energy to figuring out, "Hey, where did everything come from? Hey, if Jesus came back from the dead, that's a big deal and everything changes. If the Bible is really God's word, maybe I should actually read it," very few people do that. People look for God with the same intensity as a criminal looks for a cop, we know if we find God, okay, now we're guilty. And this is what Paul is getting at, that we are without excuse. Have you seen the movie, Just Look Up? Is that the name of it? On Netflix. So the whole premise is the end of the world is coming, there's a big meteor coming right at the Earth and the whole message of the lady that found out that we're all going to die, the whole message is she's like, "Just look up, it's right there." That's how I feel about preaching the gospel, just look up to the Lord. Part of the doom and gloom, I don't know if you noticed in the last couple of weeks, things have gotten darker in the world, and it doesn't seem like it's ending. We just assume there's going to be a ceasefire and we're all set, it looks like the darkness is going to continue, and there's two ways to respond to times like this in history. Number one is freak out, and then you're paralyzed, and you don't do anything, the other one is to capitalize on the situation, and I mean in terms of the church. Times like this are tremendous for the church. If the economy crashes, you're going to see so many people in church, the darker things get, the more desperate people become, people realize, "I am hopeless and I'm helpless, who's got hope?" We got hope, we're literally in the business of hope. So what I'm saying is, this is a tremendous time for the church, and we need to be preparing ourselves to minister to all of the people that will be coming. I believe in it, I prophesy, name and claim, we're going to fill this baby up, this baby, Temple Ohabei Shalom, we're going to fill it up. And so a couple weeks ago, I got up and I was like, "I think God is stirring my heart to tell you, we need to pray to double the church," and the way the Lord works with me is he sends me signs and I look for signs, because I believe in God, and the sign I was looking for is February 22nd, 2022, all the twos, and I said, "We got to pray at 02:22 AM and 02:22 PM." And I was on my mom and dad's house, we got on our knees, the whole family, we prayed for the Mosaic, praying, but this is the way that we should be operating, when you pray for something, then you got to step back, you get off your knees, and you're like, "Well, what am I going to do to make that happen?" Obviously, we need the Holy Spirit, but also there's things that we have to do, it's faith and works. And then pastor Shane, he reverse engineered if we do grow, how are we going to minister to everyone that God is going to bring? And we realized the bottleneck in our church is we don't have enough community groups. Community groups is really where you grow as a believer, this is where the discipleship happens, we have 27 now. For us to double, given the transient, et cetera, and grow, we're praying about becoming a church of 3,000 because the day of Pentecost, the church had 3,000, and once you get to 3,000, you can spark a movement, and there's revival, and everything changes. So we want to get to 3,000 attenders to do that, we need a thousand members to do that, we need another a hundred community groups. Now, here's my prayer and appeal. If you are a man listening to my voice, I am appealing to you to become a community group leader. I am praying for a hundred Navy seal cadets, you're not yet a Navy seal, we're going to whip you into shape, and you're like, "Well, if I'm going to pray about becoming a community group leader, what do I need to do?" First of all, you need to come to church, second of all, you need to learn your... If you're not a Christian, become a Christian, and then you can... Become a Christian, go to church, read your Bible, join a community group. And once you do that, learn from the community group leader, and then you realize how much work it is to serve people, how much work it is to know people, and love people, and care for people, et cetera, and then after a while, come to us, and we've got training that you'll go through. And so if you are a man and you're like, "What's the emphasis on the men?" Usually, that question is from ladies, and just let me do what I'm called to do. And what I'm called to do is you get the men, if you get the men, you get everybody, so that's a word from the Lord for me. O man here, he's talking to Jewish people, it's a common form of dress and antiquity, he's not just talking to all of humanity, Paul is unashamed of preaching the gospel to absolutely everybody, in particular here, he's talking to people who think they don't need grace, and then Paul comes in and he's like, "Look, you guys are all hypocrites." He's chastising his own kinsman according to the flesh, Israel, for what? For their judgemental attitude toward Gentiles. Instead of caring about Gentiles and trying to introduce Gentiles to God, they judged, and condemned, and specifically talking about hypocrisy, he says, "You condemn Gentilism, it practices the very same things." Does this text apply to us? If so, how? Yes, what's true of this, of Israel, was their judgemental spirit, that's what Paul was addressing. It's also true with a lot of Christians, the spirit of condemnation, the spirit of criticism, this applies to absolutely everybody. He's not saying never judge, he's saying, do not judge if you are committing the sin yourself, that's what he's getting at. He's getting at this spirit of hypocrisy, applies to everyone, in particular, applies to teachers. One of the scariest verses in the Bible, for me and for anyone that preaches the gospel, is James 3:1, not many of you should become teachers, my brothers, for you know that those who teach will be judged with greater strictness. I used to read that and say, "Oh, very few people should be teachers," that's not where the emphasis is. He's not saying people shouldn't teach the word of God, Jesus said, "Go make disciples," he's saying, "Do not teach the word of God if you are a hypocrite." And I think that's the bottleneck issue of why we don't have enough community group leaders, because people understand the weight of responsibility, so I want to help you deal with that. The way that you deal with this tension is not by not teaching the gospel, but dealing with the sin within, and we get that from Matthew 7:1-6, Jesus says, "Judge not, that you be not judged. For with the judgment you pronounce, you will be judged, and with the measure you use, it will be measured to you." A lot of people stop there, judge not, you shouldn't judge. You shouldn't judge in a hypocritical way. And he continues, verse three, "Why do you see the speck that is in your brother's eye but you do not notice the log that is in your own eye? Or how can you say to your brother, 'Let me take the speck out of your eye,' when there is the log in your own eye? You hypocrite, first take the log out of your own eye and then you will see clearly to take the speck out of your brother's. Do not give dogs what is Holy and do not throw your pearls before pigs, unless they trample them underfoot and turn to attack you." So Jesus here is making a judgment call. There are some people who treat the of God like an animal treats something precious, they don't have the spiritual taste buds for it, different sermon for a different day. But the emphasis here is, before you judge somebody, you got to check your own eye, and the way you do that is you look in the mirror. And this is a tremendous test of how you're doing spiritual, literally go up to a mirror today, and stare yourself in the eyes, and see if you can do that for an extended period of time without looking away, and see if there's any shame that wells up in your heart. And if there is, that's the power of the Holy Spirit convicting of sin, repent of sin, turn to him, and now you can help another, that's the emphasis here. Speaking of judging and condemning, it's 2022, elections are coming up, and 2024 is coming up, I already, I'm like, oh, no. I say that because I lived through 2020, and I lived through 2016 as a pastor of church here, and I've got a nervous tick even just saying 2016. What I ask in this season is we just agree that we can have honest conversations about difficult subjects in love, in the context of love, without condemning, "I can't believe you believe that," that's the only way. And I have one rule, no biting, that's my one rule, and you're like, "Where'd you get that rule from? The Bible? Do you got a verse?" I got a verse, Galatians 5:15, but if you bite and devour... Was that a problem there? Yeah, I would. If you bite and devour one another, watch out that you are not consumed by one another. Okay, right. Point two, that was only one verse. God's inescapable true judgment, Romans 2:2, we know that the judgment of God rightly falls on those who practice such things, and here the emphasis in the text is the true judgment of God, that God is the only one that can judge truthfully because he knows everything. And he uses the word, oida, here for know. This is very important because in the Greek, there's two different words for know, there's ginosko and there's oida. Ginosko is you know because you have accumulated information, you've learned, therefore you know. Oida is you intuitively know, you just know, sometimes you don't even know how you know, but you know. I remember when I met my wife, Tanya, it was a love at first sight, I just knew I'm going to marry her, she didn't know, she took a little persuading, it wasn't intuitive for her just yet. But sometimes, you just know. Here, he's saying you know, deep inside, human being, every single one of us, we know that there's a judgment coming, we know that the judgment of God rightfully falls of those who practice such thing. Deep inside, we know that we have transgressed God's moral law that he's written out our hearts, our conscience testifies to that, and we know that there will be consequences. I remember when moved to the city in 2009 to start church, I had no idea what I was doing, my wife, Tanya, and Sophia was nine months, she's my oldest daughter. The way I tried to evangelize was I would walk around the streets and do spiritual surveys, I had a clipboard because anyone with a clipboard looks official, and I would go up to just random people on the street, bus stops are tremendous, tea stops are tremendous, because they're not going anywhere, and I would say, "Hey, can I have five minutes of your time? I'm doing a little research for a church. I'm doing a spiritual survey," and my first question was, is the world as it ought to be? And then I would ask, are you the way you ought to be? And the emphasis on the word ought and not once the anyone... One time a girl said, "Yeah, the world is the way it ought to be," and I was like, pedophilia, that's my Trump card. The world is not the way it's supposed to be, so where does this idea come from? This idea of oughtness? That there's a moral duty, a law and blazing on the human conscience? Why should we do the right thing? Where did the idea of right and wrong, good and evil come from? And what's the point of doing the right thing if there won't be judgment coming? And the idea of oughtness assumes that justice is absolutely essential, that the judge must be perfect, he must be righteous, omniscient, knows everything, not overlooking any condemning detail, and omnipotent as the power to ensure vision is carried out. And the idea of justice assumes and demands that there is life after death, basically we have to go some place where the ultimate verdict can be rendered. So all of that theology comes from, are you the way you ought to be? My wife told me, she said, "I don't know where to put this, but you got to put this in the sermon," so here you go. She said, "You got to, you got to tell then ask themselves, do you have any regrets in your life? Do you have any regrets?" And if you go down the path of regret, you realize yeah, we haven't been the way we ought to be. So back to the question, have you been the way you ought to be? If you say yes, your sin is self-righteousness, and also you just lied and you broke a commandment, so it's unrighteousness. The answer is no, we're under the righteous condemnation of God. If you have not lived how you ought to have lived, you broke the law that is written on heart, and if there's a law, then there's a law giver, and if there's a law giver, then there's consequences of breaking that law. He continues to verse three, do you suppose, O man, you who judge those who practice such things and yet do them yourself, that you will escape the judgment of God? So you do the same thing that you're condemning these people for, deep in your heart you know that there is no escape. If you're not a Christian, if you haven't submitted your life to Jesus Christ, I wonder what's your escape plan for the judgment of God. What's your escape plan? Most people, number one, it's like, "I just hope it's not true, therefore I'm not even going to think about it." But for some reason, even if it's true, perhaps there's some loophole, perhaps we can figure it out with the Lord. You stand before God when you die and he asks, "Why should I let you into heaven?" What are you going to say? What's your go-to? Are you got to point to some great things you've done? For most people, if they're really honest, they think that if they say, "I've been a good person to God," that God will believe you. I dealt with this last week, where this narrative come from, that people are good people, that people are born good, and I thought it was a lie, a lie promulgated by PBS. That was mine, but Stephanie told me it was John Jack Russo and the enlightenment, that was the first guy. Even if hypothetically, there are good people with no sin, and they probably live in a place that's nicer, I think of Arkansas. If you're from Arkansas, probably good people, no? I don't know. But I've been here for 12 years and I can tell you that argument is absolutely baseless. You just have to drive in Boston once, and you realize there's no good people. Take the T one time, even walk, a pedestrian, just walk around the city and you're like, "No, everyone needs Jesus," that's what he's saying. Hebrews 2:3, how shall we escape if we neglect such a great salvation? It was declared at first by the Lord and was attested to us by those who heard. The loophole that everyone's looking for, right? You just say, "Okay, maybe God will forgive me," that loophole is here now, this is the ultimate cheat code for all of eternity. The Gospel, repent of your sin now and God in his mercy forgives you. Tremendous, that's the whole point of everything that we do, it's the whole point of the Bible, so don't neglect it. And then for Christians I say, look, we too will have a judgment day, there's two judgments, the first judgment is we stand before God and that the question is, "What did you do with Jesus Christ? Did you accept or did you reject? If you accepted Christ, now you go to the second judgment," this is a judgment for Christians, and this is a judgment where God is going to ask, "What did you do with the time, the talent, the treasure, with everything I've given you? And this is 1 Corinthians 3:10-15, according to the grace of God given to me, like a skilled master builder," So Paul thinks about ministry and life as building. "Like a skilled master builder, I laid a foundation and someone else is building upon it. Let each one take care how he builds upon it, for no one can lay a foundation other than that which is laid, which is Jesus Christ." So you're saying the Gospel of Jesus Christ, that's a foundation for our lives when we become Christians, and then we need to build upon a foundation, the question is, what materials are we building with? Now, if anyone builds in the foundation with gold, silver, precious stones, wood, hay, straw, each one's work will become manifest for the day, that's the judgment day, we'll disclose it because it will be revealed by fire, and the fire will test what sort of work each one has done. If the work that anyone has built on the foundation survives, he will receive a reward. If anyone's work is burned up, he will suffer loss, though he himself will be saved, but only as through fire." The question is, dear Christian, what materials are you building with on the foundation of the Gospel of Jesus Christ? Are you building with the best that you have? Are you building with gold? Are you building with precious materials? And here, this includes everything, but in particular, energy. I know my freshest energy is a couple hours in the morning, that's when my brain is the absolute freshest, that's why I give that time to the Lord, that's why today's so rough, Satan stolen hour from me. Thoughts, love, passion, money, treasure, the question is, are you building a mansion in the kingdom or a shack and will stand before God and be judged? Point 3, the kindness of God's patience, it's verse four, do you presume on the riches of his kindness, and forbearance, and patience, not knowing that God's kindness is meant to lead you to repentance? This is a rhetorical question, do you take the goodness of God lightly or do you take it for granted? Particularly, what he's talking about is you know you've sinned and God has not taken your life yet. The reason why he hasn't isn't that he's not going to judge, he will, the reason why he hasn't taken your life yet is to give you time to repent, that's the whole point, that's the emphasis on the patience, the forbearance. One of the biggest lies that people believe on mass is that God is some congenial grandpa, Santa Claus figure, like, "Yeah, God will forgive me," and really, you ask them why and they're like, "Because God is good and he's loving," well, if God is good, then God is just, and if God is just, then he can't forgive, so there's got to be someone that pays the penalty for our sin. And that's Jesus Christ, and that's Romans 3, that God is the just and the justifier because Jesus Christ on the cross, he paid the penalty for our sin, he absorbed the condemnation of God. And the reason why we're still alive today, if your heart is still beating, it's to bring you to repentance. God, here is rich, he says, "God is rich in kindness," he's rich in everything, but he's rich in kindness forbearance patience. You see this theme in Ephesians, particularly in the Philippians. Ephesians 1:7, in him, we have redemption through his blood, the forgiveness of our trespasses, according to the riches of his grace. Ephesians 2:7, so that in the coming ages, he might show the immeasurable riches of his grace and kindness toward us in Christ Jesus. Verse eight, to me though, I'm the very least of all the saints, this grace was given to preach to the Gentiles, the unsearchable riches of Christ, and verse 16, that according to the riches of his glory, he may grant you to be strengthened with power through his spirit in your inner being, and Philippians 4:19, and my God will supply every need of yours according to his riches and glory in Christ, Jesus. God has these riches of grace, and kindness, and forgiveness, and he wants to give it to you, you have to ask, you have to come to God and you say, "God, help me. God, please give it to me." When Jesus Christ was crucified, there was also a criminal crucified on his left hand and a criminal crucified on his right hand, Luke 23:39-43, one of the criminals who were hanged railed at him saying, "Are you not the Christ? Save yourself and us," you see that spirit of demanding? He's not asking for it, he's demanding it, like, "You have to do this for me," without really even understanding everything. But the other rebuked him saying, "Do you not fear God, since you are under the same sentence of condemnation? And we indeed justly, for we are receiving the due reward of our deeds, but this man has done nothing wrong. And he said, "Jesus, remember me when you come into your kingdom," and he said to him, "Truly, I say to you, today, you will be with me in paradise," just got to ask, just ask, "Lord, please forgive me of my..." Was he baptized? Did he go to church? Did he know a scripture? I'm not saying that this is an excuse, a lot of people use this as an excuse to not do... I'm saying this is all it takes, you just ask because of Jesus Christ. There were two men crucified with Jesus. One shows us that while our heart still beats, there's hope, as long as we don't presume upon God's grace. Both men are helpless, both started hopeless, one repented, the other did not, because he presumed upon God's grace. The word presume means despised, looked down on with contempt, aversion, implication that you consider the object of little value, like, "Yeah. Okay, the gospel. Yeah. Okay, Jesus died on the..." It's the son of God, God himself died on a cross to save you. If you don't see the treasure of that, there's a spirit of presumption, that's what he's getting at. The reason why this is important is if you allow the spirit of presumption to grow in your heart, there is a point of no return where repentance, even if you're alive, will not be granted, because you won't be able to find it, that's Hebrews 12:17, for you know that afterward, when he saw desired to inherit the blessing, he was rejected, for he found no chance to repent though he saw it with tears, the spirit of presumption, "Oh, I can put it off, God will forgive me when it's time." Today is the day of repentance, what is repentance? A change of heart and a change of mind that leads to a change of life. So it's not just about coming to God and asking God, "Please forgive me," and then going to live any way you want, no, it's, "God, please forgive me and I'm yours," and now your life has changed. Acts 26:20, but declared first to those in Damascus, then Jerusalem, and throughout all the region of Judea, and also to the Gentiles, that they should repent and turn to God, performing deeds and keeping with their repentance." It's both, once you give your life to God through repentance, your life belongs to him. Matthew 3:8, bear fruit in keeping with repentance. That brings us to verse five, and because of your hard and impenitent heart, you're storing up wrath for yourself on the day of wrath when God's righteous judgment will be revealed." This is one of the most terrifying verses in the Bible because there is this idea that wrath is being accumulated, this is an economic turn, you're accruing God's wrath the longer you put off repentance. And this text assumes that there are varying degrees of punishment in hell. When theologian wrote the sinner in hell would give everything, do anything he could to make one less the number of his sins during his lifetime, because he will be judged according to his deeds. Hell is a place where God manifests perfect justice and the punishment always fits the crime. In the same way that there's rewards that we can accumulate in heaven, there's punishment and wrath that people accumulate in hell, and it's growing daily for anyone who's not in Christ. A failure to repent will be fully reveal on judgment day with the full accumulation so we are to repent and believe. I'm going to go back to Luke 15, texts like this that bum you out, I know, but it's good, that's part of my job. Bad news, I'm like, "Tremendous news." I want to go back to Luke 15, because in Luke 15, Jesus was criticized for loving sinners, he was criticized by the Pharisees for spending time with people who did not know Jesus Christ, who needed salvation. This is Luke 15:1-7, now, the tax collectors and sinners were all drawing near to him. And the Pharisees and the Scribes... That's the religious people, their literal job is to go help sinners meet God. But they start grumbling saying the man receives sinners and eats with them, so he told them this parable, "What man of you, having a hundred sheep, if he has lost one of them, does not leave the 99 in the open country and go after the one that is lost until he finds it? When he has found it, he lays it on his shoulders, rejoicing. And when he comes home, he calls together his friends and his neighbors, saying to them, 'Rejoice with me for I found my sheep that was lost.' Just so, I tell you, there will be more joy in heaven over one sinner who repents than over 99 righteous persons who need no repentance." And then in this context, he shares a story of the prodigal son in Luke 15. And in the story of the prodigal son, the prodigal son represents the Gentiles, that's one son, and the older brother represents the Pharisees here, the people who think they don't need forgiveness, that they don't need repentance. And the whole story, the point of the story is to get us to point where we ask, "Hey, what's wrong with the older brother?" For two reasons, you got to ask that question. Number one, at the end of the story, he's not reconciled with the father, the younger one is, and the second reason why this is important is because the older brother was supposed to take care of the younger brother. Where's my brother's keeper? Yes, this story is very meaningful to me because I have a younger brother and he and I, we want to know, are you being a younger brother or an older brother now? We do that whole thing. The idea is we need to take responsibility for those who are outside the kingdom of God, feel it, in the same way that you should care for your own soul, we should care for the souls of people who aren't Christians, we have to, that's the point. So who's the older brother? And how can the younger brother be accepted back into the family? How do you do that? Only because of the true older brother, the true older brother is Jesus Christ. Jesus Christ takes responsibility for us, he's the one that comes into the quagmire of our sin as we're in the pigsty to provide a way for us to be saved. Look at Hebrews 2:10-12, for it's fitting that he, for whom and by whom all things exist and bringing many sons to glory, should make the founder of their salvation perfect through suffering. For he who sanctifies and those who are sanctified all have one source, that is why he's not ashamed to call them brothers. Jesus calls us brothers? Yeah, Jesus is our older brother, that's the point of the text, saying, "I will tell of your name to my brothers, in the midst of congregation I will sing your praise," John Calvin writing another age of spiritual uncertainty and insecurity points to Jesus' brotherhood as the basis for our hope and assurance. He says this, "There's a second Adam who comes to remedy all. Our Lord, Jesus Christ, by the power of the Holy Spirit, we are bone of the bones of our Lord, Jesus Christ, and we have in him, a new and second creation. And there is no doubt at all that we are joined to God by means of him seeing he is our true brother, because we are bone of his bone and flesh of his flesh. For just as he is very God, so on the other hand, he is akin to us because he came down. In order that we might be glorified by means of him, and for that reason also, he's called our brother." I see that Jesus Christ is my head, and that I belong to him, and that not only I am his, but also he is mine, so that his life belongs to me. Eternal salvation was bought for us so dearly by the blood of God's only son in order that in the end, we should be partakers of the effect and virtue that proceeds from it. The saying alone ought to break off distrust when we are in doubt and perplexity, whether or not God will accept us. For seeing that we have this record, that Jesus Christ is our brother, what more do we want? Some people look at Christianity, the cross of Jesus Christ, and you think, "I have sinned so much. I have done just wicked, evil things, so the cross is beyond me, the grace of God is beyond me. God would never forgive me." Well, the cross is proof that God will, you just have to ask. Some people who suffer with the self-righteousness of the older brother, people think the cross is beneath them, "I don't need this." You do look at the cross of Jesus Christ, look what God was willing to do, look what God did, this is the only way we need salvation. The text in Luke 15, the paragraph that I didn't read in the beginning, I'm going to read now and then close with this, so the son, he arose and came to his father, and while he was still a long way off, his father saw him, and felt compassion, and ran, and embraced him, and kissed him. The son said to him, "Father, I've sinned against heaven and before you, I'm no longer worthy to be called your son." The Father said to his servants, "Bring quickly the best robe, and put it on him, and put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet, and bring the fattened calf and kill it. Let us eat and celebrate for this, my son was dead and is alive again. He was lost and is found." And they began to celebrate on the text. If you're not a Christian, if you haven't run back to the Lord, repentance, he's waiting with arms wide open. The father's arms are open wide, because our older brother's arms were open wide on the cross. And it wasn't the nails that kept him there, it was his love for us. So come and receive that grace, repent, receive obey, Jesus Christ, welcome home, and let's celebrate, that's what I'm saying. Life should be a celebration because heaven is a party, in Jesus name, Amen. Let us pray. Heavenly Father, we thank you for this wonderful text, we thank you for the book of Romans, and we pray Lord that you continue to build us up in the faith, continue to use us, Lord, give us in our hearts, this feeling of responsibility for those in our lives who aren't yet Christians. To do everything we possibly can, just everything we possibly can to see them come to faith in Jesus Christ and repent of sins so that we can spend eternity together in the tremendous party in Jesus name, Amen.

Foodpreneur with Chelsea Ford
#5 Surviving pitch rejection. What to do to get a YES.

Foodpreneur with Chelsea Ford

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 9, 2022 15:45


Pitch more often. Statistically speaking, if you're pitching more you'll land more accounts. And yes, you'll also get more ‘no's', but does that really matter?You've got to be in it to win it, as they say.In this episode I talk about a foodpreneur who had doors closed in her face consistently yet today, five years later has a revenue of $4 million dollars. You can do that too. I also teach you my sales activity planner framework.Links & ResourcesMasterclass and Scaling WorkbookSales Planning Freebie: Preparing To Pitch ChecklistIf you haven't listened to episode 4 (12 mins) on how to not negotiate on price when you are pitching, listen here.And, I invite you to come and join my community of female foodpreneurs, and catch up on the conversations, in Kiosk. For Women in Food and Drink, my free Facebook group.This episode is brought to you by Foodpreneurs Formula®, my business acceleration coaching program for packaged food and drink brand owners ready to scale, and my free on-demand masterclass that gives you the framework to help you navigate your scaling journey.

Believers Chapel Central NY
Why Church? Week 3

Believers Chapel Central NY

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 27, 2022 28:10


One glaring question we have to ask ourselves when we look around our church is, "Where are all the young people?" Statistically, Millennials, often called the "nones," have drifted away from the practice of going to church, and have no problem being unaffiliated with any religious group. The next generation, Generation Z, has followed this pattern even further, drifting away from church and not practicing their faith in any traceable or visible way, if they are practicing it at all. This forces us to go back and examine what Church really is supposed to be, and whether or not we all need to be participating in Church. What does church offer for younger generations today? Does God care if we're all a part of an actual local church? Can't we serve God without going to some physical building every week or being in a bible study? Guest Speaker Verna Reid challenges us in this message to take a hard look at the value of Church, and how we can address the change in religious practices among younger generations today.