Podcast appearances and mentions of Celinda Lake

Send us a textCatching up this week with return guest Dr. Michael Cohen, who just released a new edition of his book Modern Political Campaigns this month. He studied under iconic pollster Bill Hamilton as a student, worked in the trenches in Republican campaigns, spent time at Gallup, apprenticed under renowned GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio and worked with famed Dem strategist Mark Penn when Michael was an in-house pollster at Microsoft. Along the way, Michael started his own firm (Cohen Research Group), built the successful Congress in Your Pocket tech app, and wrote Modern Political Campaigns to bring the campaign literature up to speed with the ever-evolving political industry - including a new edition that includes a focus on the role AI is playing in political campaigns. This is a great nuts-and-bolts conversation on the political industry with a smart pollster, tech entrepreneur, and author.IN THIS EPISODE…The new edition of Modern Political Campaigns, including a focus on AI in campaigns...How political campaigns are (and are not) using AI at this point...What Michael knows about Gen Z from teaching courses at NYU and Johns Hopkins...Lessons he learned from a recent heart attack and recovery...Michael's formative years growing up on Long Island…The political switch flips for Michael in college…Michael crosses paths with famed Democratic pollster Bill Hamilton…Michael makes the jump to political polling under Tony Fabrizio…The bizarre story of how one of Michael's candidates was pilloried on the Colbert Report…Michael starts his own polling firm to move beyond partisan politics…Michael's stint as an in-house pollster at Microsoft with Mark Penn…Michael's compares working with legendary Dem pollster Mark Penn and iconic GOP pollster Tony Fabrizio…Michael creates the wildly successful Congress in Your Pocket app…Michael's 101 on how to create an app…The long journey behind Michael's new book Modern Political Campaigns…Michael's advice to those who want to write a book and get it published…Michael's take on what makes a good pollster…Michael weighs in on the question of a “polling crisis”…Michael's advice on the best books to understand how politics works…AND AAPOR, Michael Bender, Sidney Blumenthal, Stephen Colbert, Sean Cook, Bob Dole, enlargement ads, Ezra Cohen Corporation, Arthur Finkelstein, the Gallup Poll, Josh Gottheimer, Sasha Issenberg, Peter Jennings, Steve Jobs, Ed Koch, Celinda Lake, Massapequa mannerisms, mobilization vs. persuasion, Never Trump Republicans, Ronald Reagan, Rowman & Littlefield, Jake Rush, Karen Thurman, Chris Tompkins, Tevi Troy, vampire roleplaying, Ted Yoho, & more!

Big changes are happening: space; energy; and, of course, artificial intelligence. The difference between sustainable, pro-growth change, versus a retreat back into stagnation, may lie in how we implement that change. Today on Faster, Please! — The Podcast, I talk with Virginia Postrel about the pitfalls of taking a top-down approach to innovation, versus allowing a bottom-up style of dynamism to flourish.Postrel is an author, columnist, and speaker whose scholarly interests range from emerging technology to history and culture. She has authored four books, including The Future and Its Enemies (1998) and her most recent, The Fabric of Civilization: How Textiles Made the World (2020). Postrel is a contributing editor for the Works in Progress magazine and has her own Substack.In This Episode* Technocrats vs. dynamists (1:29)* Today's deregulation movement (6:12)* What to make of Musk (13:37)* On electric cars (16:21)* Thinking about California (25:56)Below is a lightly edited transcript of our conversation. Technocrats vs. dynamists (1:29)I think it is a real thing, I think it is in both parties, and its enemies are in both parties, too, that there are real factional disagreements.Pethokoukis: There is this group of Silicon Valley founders and venture capitalists, they supported President Trump because they felt his policies were sort of pro-builder, pro-abundance, pro-disruption, whatever sort of name you want to use.And then you have this group on the center-left who seemed to discover that 50 years of regulations make it hard to build EV chargers in the United States. Ezra Klein is one of these people, maybe it's limited to center-left pundits, but do you think there's something going on? Do you think we're experiencing a dynamism kind of vibe shift? I would like to think we are.Postrel: I think there is something going on. I think there is a real progress and abundance movement. “Abundance” tends to be the word that people who are more Democrat-oriented use, and “progress” is the word that people who are more — I don't know if they're exactly Republican, but more on the right . . . They have disagreements, but they represent distinct Up Wing (to put it in your words) factions within their respective parties. And actually, the Up Wing thing is a good way of thinking about it because it includes both people that, in The Future and Its Enemies, I would classify as technocrats, and Ezra Klein read the books and says, “I am a technocrat.” They want top-down direction in the pursuit of what they see as progress. And people that I would classify as dynamists who are more bottom-up and more about decentralized decision-making, price signals, markets, et cetera.They share a sense that they would like to see the possibility of getting stuff done, of increasing abundance, of more scientific and technological progress, all of those kinds of things. I think it is a real thing, I think it is in both parties, and its enemies are in both parties, too, that there are real factional disagreements. In many ways, it reminds me of the kind of cross-party seeking for new answers that we experienced in the late '70s and early '80s, where . . . the economy was problematic in the '70s.Highly problematic.And there was a lot of thinking about what the problems were and what could be done better, and one thing that came out of that was a lot of the sort of deregulation efforts that, in the many pay-ins to Jimmy Carter, who's not my favorite president, but there was a lot of good stuff that happened through a sort of left-right alliance in that period toward opening up markets.So you had people like Ralph Nader and free-market economists saying, “We really don't need to have all these regulations on trucking, and on airlines, and these are anti-consumer, and let's free things up.” And we reaped enormous benefits from that, and it's very hard to believe how prescriptive those kinds of regulations were back before the late '70s.The progress and abundance movement has had its greatest success — although it still has a lot to go — on housing, and that's where you see people who are saying, “Why do we have so many rules about how much parking you can have?” I mean, yes, a lot of people want parking, but if they want parking, they'll demand it in the marketplace. We don't need to say, “You can't have tandem parking.” Every place I've lived in LA would be illegal to build nowadays because of the parking, just to take one example.Today's deregulation movement (6:12). . . you've got grassroots kind of Trump supporters who supported him because they're sick of regulation. Maybe they're small business owners, they just don't like being told what to do . .. . and it's a coalition, and it's going to be interesting to see what happens.You mentioned some of the deregulation in the Carter years, that's a real tangible achievement. Then you also had a lot more Democrats thinking about technology, what they called the “Atari Democrats” who looked at Japan, so there was a lot of that kind of tumult and thinking — but do you think this is more than a moment, it's kind of this brief fad, or do you think it can turn into something where you can look back in five and 10 years, like wow, there was a shift, big things actually happened?I don't think it's just a fad, I think it's a real movement. Now, movements are not always successful. And we'll see, when we saw an early blowup over immigration.That's kind of what I was thinking of, it's hardly straightforward.Within the Trump coalition, you've got people who are what I in The Future and Its Enemies would call reactionaries. That is, people who idealize an idea of an unchanging America someplace in the past. There are different versions of that even within the Trump coalition, and those people are very hostile to the kinds of changes that come with bottom-up innovation and those sorts of things.But then you've also got people, and not just people from Silicon Valley, you've got grassroots kind of Trump supporters who supported him because they're sick of regulation. Maybe they're small business owners, they just don't like being told what to do, so you've got those kinds of people too, and it's a coalition, and it's going to be interesting to see what happens.It's not just immigration, it's also if you wanted to have a big technological future in the US, some of the materials you need to build come from other countries. I think some of them come from Canada, and probably we're not going to annex it, and if you put big tariffs on those things, it's going to hamper people's ability to do things. This is more of a Biden thing, but the whole Nippon Steel can't buy US Steel and invest huge amounts of money in US plants because, “Oh no, they're Japanese!” I mean it's like back to the '80s.Virginia, what if we wake up one morning and they've moved the entire plant to Tokyo? We can't let them do that!There's one thing about steel plants, they're very localized investments. And we have a lot of experience with Japanese investment in the US, by the way, lots of auto plants and other kinds of things. It's that sort of backward thinking, which, in this case, was a Biden administration thing, but Trump agrees, or has agreed, is not good. And it's not even politically smart, and it's not even pro the workers because the workers who actually work at the relevant plant want this investment because it will improve their jobs, but instead we get this creating monopoly. If things go the way it looks like they will, there will be a monopoly US Steel supplier, and that's not good for the auto industry or anybody else who uses steel.I think if we look back in 2030 at what's happened since 2025, whether this has turned out to be a durable kind of pro-progress, pro-growth, pro-abundance moment, I'll look at how have we reacted to advances in artificial intelligence: Did we freak out and start worrying about job loss and regulate it to death? And will we look back and say, “Wow, it became a lot easier to build a nuclear power plant or anything energy.” Has it become significantly easier over the past five years? How deep is the stasis part of America, and how big is the dynamist part of America, really?Yeah, I think it's a big question. It's a big question both because we're at this moment of what looks like big political change, we're not sure what that change is going to look like because the Trump coalition and Trump himself are such a weird grab bag of impulses, and also because, as you mentioned, artificial intelligence is on the cusp of amazing things, it looks like.And then you throw in the energy issues, which are related to climate, but they're also related to AI because AI requires a lot of energy. Are we going to build a lot of nuclear power plants? It's conceivable we will, both because of new technological designs for them, but also because of this growing sense — what I see is a lot of elite consensus (and elites are bad now!) that we made a wrong move when we turned against nuclear power. There's still aging Boomer and older are environmentalist types who still react badly to the idea of nuclear power, but if you talk to younger people, they are more open-minded because they're more concerned with the climate, and if we're going to electrify everything, the electricity's got to come from someplace. Solar and wind don't get you there.To me, not only is this the turnaround in nuclear, to me, stunning, but the fact that we had one of the most severe accidents only about 10 years ago in Japan, and if you would have asked anybody back then, they're like, “That's the death knell. No more nuclear renaissance in these countries. Japan's done. It's done everywhere.” Yet here we are.And yet, part of that may even be because of that accident, because it was bad, and yet, the long-run bad effects were negligible in terms of actual deaths or other things that you might point to. It's not like suddenly you had lots of babies being born with two heads or something.What to make of Musk (13:37)I'm glad the world has an Elon Musk, I'm glad we don't have too many of them, and I worry a little bit about someone of that temperament being close to political power.What do you make of Elon Musk?Well, I reviewed Walter Isaacson's biography of him.Whatever your opinion was after you read the biography, has it changed?No, it hasn't. I think he is somebody who has poor impulse control, and some of his impulses are very good. His engineering and entrepreneurial genius are best focused in the world of building things — that is, working with materials, physically thinking about properties of materials and how could you do spaceships, or cars, or things differently. He's a mixed bag and a lot of these kinds of people, I say it well compared.What do people expect that guy to be like?Compared to Henry Ford, I'd prefer Elon Musk. I'm glad the world has an Elon Musk, I'm glad we don't have too many of them, and I worry a little bit about someone of that temperament being close to political power. It can be a helpful corrective to some of the regulatory impulses because he does have this very strong builder impulse, but I don't think he's a particularly thoughtful person about his limitations or about political concerns.Aside from his particular strange personality, there is a general problem among the tech elite, which is that they overemphasize how much they know. Smart people are always prone to the problem of thinking they know everything because they're smart, or that they can learn everything because they're smart, or that they're better than people because they're smart, and it's just like one characteristic. Even the smartest person on earth can't know everything because there's more knowledge than any one person can have. That's why I don't like the technocratic impulse, because the technocratic impulse is like, smart people should run the world and they tell you exactly how to do it.To take a phrase that Ruxandra Teslo uses on her Substack, I think weird nerds are really important to the progress of the world, but weird nerds also need to realize that our goal should be to create a world in which they have a place and can do great things, but not a world in which they run everything, because they're not the only people who are valuable and important.On electric cars (16:21)If you look at the statistics, the people who buy electric cars tend to be people who don't actually drive that much, and they're skewed way to high incomes.You were talking about electrification a little earlier, and you've written a little bit about electric cars. Why did you choose to write about electric cars? And it seems like there's a vibe shift on electric cars as well in this country.This is the funny thing, because this January interview is actually scheduled because of a July post I had written on Substack called “Don't Talk About Electric Cars!”It's as timely as today's headlines.The headline was inspired by a talk that I heard Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster (been around forever) give at a Breakthrough Institute conference back in June. Breakthrough Institute is part of this sort of UP Wing, pro-progress coalition, but they have a distinct Democrat tilt. And this conference, there was a panel on it that was about how to talk about these issues, specifically if you want Democrats to win.She gave this talk where she showed all these polling results where you would say, “The Biden administration is great because of X,” and then people would agree or disagree. And the thing that polled the worst, and in fact the only thing that actually made people more likely to vote Republican, was saying that they had supported building all these electric charging stations. Celinda Lake's opinion, her analysis of that, digging into the numbers, was that people don't like electric cars, and especially women don't like electric cars, because of concerns about range. Women are terrified of being stranded, that was her take. I don't know if that's true, but that was her take. But women love hybrids, and I think people love hybrids. I think hybrids are very popular, and in fact, I inherited my mother's hybrid because she stopped driving. So I now have a 2018 Prius, which I used to take this very long road trip in the summer where I drove from LA to a conference in Wichita, and then to Red Cloud Nebraska, and then back to Wichita for a second conference.The reason people don't like electric cars is really a combination of the fact that they tend to cost more than equivalent gasoline vehicles and because they have limited range and you have to worry about things like charging them and how long charging them is going to take.If you look at the statistics, the people who buy electric cars tend to be people who don't actually drive that much, and they're skewed way to high incomes. So I live in this neighborhood in West LA, and it is full of Priuses — I mean it used to be full of Priuses, there's still a lot of Priuses, but it's full of Teslas and it is not typical. And the people in LA who are driving many, many miles are people who have jobs like they're gardeners, or their contractors, or they're insurance adjusters and they have to drive all around and they don't drive electric cars. They might very well drive hybrids because you get better gas mileage, but they're not people who have a lot of time to be sitting around in charging stations.I think what's happened is there's some groups of people who are see this as a problem to be solved, but then there are a lot of people who see it as more symbolic than not. And they let their ideal, perfect world prevent improvements. So instead of saying, “We should switch from coal to natural gas,” they say, “We should outlaw fossil fuels.” Instead of saying, “Hybrids are a great thing, great invention, way lower emissions,” they say, “We must have all electric vehicles.” And what will happen, California has this rule, it has this law, that you're not going to be able to sell [non-]electric vehicles in the state after, I think it's 2035, and it's totally predictable what's going to happen: People just keep their gasoline cars longer. We're going to end up like Cuba with a bunch of old cars.I swear, every report I get from a think tank, or a consultancy, or a Wall Street bank, for years has talked about electric cars, the energy transition, as if it was an absolutely done deal, and maybe it is a done deal over some longer period of time, I don't know, but to me it sort of gets to your point about top-down technocratic impulse — it seems to be failing.And I think that electric cars are a good example of that because there are a lot of people who think electric cars are really cool, they're kind of an Up Wing thing, if you will. It's like a new technology, there've been big advances, and exciting entrepreneurs . . . and I think a lot of people who like the idea of technological progress like electric cars, and in fact, the adoption of electric cars by people who maybe don't drive a whole lot but have a lot of money, it's not just environmental, cool, or even status, it's partly techno-lust, especially with Teslas.A lot of people who bought Teslas, they're just like people who like technology, but the top-down proclamation that you must have an electric vehicle, and we're going to use a combination of subsidies and bans to force everybody to have an electric vehicle, really doesn't acknowledge the diversity of transportation needs that people have.One way of looking at electric cars, but also the effort to build all these chargers, which has been a failure, the effort to start to creating broadband connectivity to all these rural areas — which isn't working very well — there was this lesson learned by people on the center-left, and Ezra Klein, that there was this wild overreaction, perhaps, to environmental problems in the '60s and '70s, and the unintended consequence here is that one, the biggest environmental problem may be worse because we don't have nuclear power and climate change, but now we can't really solve any problems. So it took them 50 years, but they learned a lesson.My concern is to look at what's going on with some of the various Biden initiatives which are taking forever to implement, may be wildly unpopular — will they learn the risk of this top-down technocratic approach, or they'll just memory hold that and they'll move on to their next technocratic approach? Will there be a learning?No, I'm skeptical that there will be. I think that the learning that has taken place — and by the way, I hate that: “a learning,” that kind of thing. . .That's why I said it, because it's kind of delightfully annoying.The “learning,” gerund, that has taken place is that we shouldn't put so much process in the way of government doing things. And while I more or less agree with that, in particular, there are too many veto points and it is too easy for a very small group of objectors to hold up, not just private, but also public initiatives that are providing public goods.I think that the reason we got all of these process things that keep things from being done was because of things like urban renewal in the 1960s. And no, it was not just Robert Moses, he just got the big book written about him, but this took place every place where neighborhoods were completely torn down and hideous, brutalist structures were built for public buildings, or public housing, and these kinds of things, and people eventually rebelled against that.I think that yes, there are some people on the center-left who will learn. I do not think Ezra Klein is one of them, but price signals are actually useful things. They convey knowledge, and if you're going to go from one regulatory regime to another, you'll get different results, but if you don't have something that surfaces that bottom-up knowledge and takes it seriously, eventually it's going to break down. It's either going to break down politically or it's just waste a lot of money. . . You have your own technocratic streak.Thinking about California (25:56)Everybody uses California fires as an excuse to grind whatever axe they have.But listen, they'd be the good technocrats.Final question: As we're speaking, as we're doing this interview, huge fires raging sort of north of Los Angeles — how do you feel about the future of California? You live in California. California is extraordinarily important, both the American economy and to the world as a place of culture, as a place of technology. How do you feel about the state?The state has done a lot of shooting itself in the foot over the last . . . I moved here in 1986, and over that time, particularly in the first decade I was there, things were going great, the state was kind of stupid. I think if California solves its housing problem and actually allows significant amounts of housing to be built so that people can move here, people can stay here, young people don't have to leave the state, I think that will go a long way. It has made some positive movement in that direction. I think that's the biggest single obstacle.Fires are a problem, and I just recirculated on my Substack something I wrote about understanding the causes of California fires and what would need to be done to stop them.You've got to rake that underbrush.I wrote this in 2019, but it's still true: Everybody uses California fires as an excuse to grind whatever axe they have.Some of the Twitter commentary has been less-than-generous toward the people of California and its governor.One of the forms of progress that we take for granted is that cities don't burn regularly. Throughout most of human history, regular urban fires were a huge deal, and one of the things that city governments feared the most was fire and how were they prevented. There's the London fire, and the Chicago fires, and I remember, I just looked up yesterday, there was a huge fire in Atlanta in 1917, which was when my grandparents were children there. I remember my grandparents talking about that fire. Cities used to regularly burn — now they don't, where you have, they call it the “urban wildlife,” I forget what it's called, but there's a place where the city meets up against the natural environment, and that's where we have fires now, so that people like me who live in the concrete are not threatened. It's the people who live closer to nature, or they have more money, have a big lot of land.It's kind of understood what would be needed to prevent such fires. It's hard to do because it costs a lot of money in some cases, but it's not like, “Let's forget civilization. Let's not build anything. Let's just let nature take its course.” And one of the problems that was in the 20th century where people had the false idea — again, bad technocrats — that you needed to prevent forest fires, forest fires were always bad, and that is a complete misunderstanding of how the natural world works.California has a great future if it fixes this housing problem. If it doesn't fix its housing problem, it can write off the future. It will be all old people who already have houses.On sale everywhere The Conservative Futurist: How To Create the Sci-Fi World We Were Promised▶ Business* Google Thinks It Has the Best AI Tech. Now It Needs More Users. - WSJ* Anduril Picks Ohio for Military Drone Factory Employing 4,000 - Bberg* A lesson for oligarchs: politics can be deadly - FT Opinion* EU Needs Deregulation to Keep Up with Trump, Ericsson CEO Says - Bberg▶ Policy/Politics* Europe's ‘super-regulator' role is under threat - FT Opinion* Biden's AI Data Center and Climate Contradiction - WSJ Opinion* After Net Neutrality: The Return of the States - AEI* China Has a $1 Trillion Head Start in Any Tariff Fight - WSJ▶ AI/Digital* She Is in Love With ChatGPT - NYT* Meta AI creates speech-to-speech translator that works in dozens of languages - Nature* AI-designed proteins tackle century-old problem — making snake antivenoms - Nature* Meta takes us a step closer to Star Trek's universal translator - Ars▶ Clean Energy/Climate* Chris Wright backs aggressive build-out of the US power grid - EEN* We Have to Stop Underwriting People Who Move to Climate Danger Zones - NYT Opinion* Has China already reached peak oil? - FT* Molten salt nuclear reactor in Wyoming hits key milestone - New Atlas▶ Space/Transportation* SpaceX catches Super Heavy booster on Starship Flight 7 test but loses upper stage - Space* Blue Origin reaches orbit on first flight of its titanic New Glenn rocket - Ars* Jeff Bezos' New Glenn Rocket Lifts Off on First Flight - NYT* Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket reaches orbit in first test - WaPo* Blue Ghost, a Private U.S. Lunar Lander, Launches to the Moon - SciAm* Human exploration of Mars is coming, says former NASA chief scientist - NS▶ Substacks/Newsletters* TikTok is just the beginning - Noahpinion* Unstable Diffusion - Hyperdimensional* Progress's First Principles - Risk & Progress* How Trump, China & Trade Wars Will Affect the Global AI Landscape in 2025 - AI Supremacy* After the Green New Deal - Slow Boring* Washington Must Prioritize Mineral Supply Results Over Political Point Scoring - Breakthrough JournalFaster, Please! is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fasterplease.substack.com/subscribe

In today's special episode, we delve into "Voter Voices on Education" with insights from pollster Celinda Lake, President of Lake Research Partners and All4Ed CEO Dr. Amy Loyd. Enjoy this special episode of the All4Ed Flash⚡️!All4Ed Website: https://all4ed.org Twitter: @All4Ed Instagram: @All4Ed Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/all4ed

America stands at a pivotal crossroads.With serious threats to America's democracy posed by nationalists, populists and other non-democratic candidates and forces, America at a Crossroads has offered weekly programming continuously since 2020 to encourage activism and passion to combat these threats to our American democracy.Through our weekly virtual town hall series, America at a Crossroads, we focus on combating authoritarianism and preserving American democracy.Register for our upcoming programs at jewsunitedfordemocracy.org/events/

Recent polls suggest that American men and women are more divided over the 2024 election than they were in 2016, when Donald Trump ran against Hillary Clinton. The Washington Roundtable discusses the split with the independent Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, who identifies causes that go beyond the issue of abortion. As for how Kamala Harris can win over blue-collar women who might be leaning toward Trump, “we have a program,” she says.This week's reading: “Trump Is Not Pivoting to Policy, Now or Ever,” by Susan B. Glasser “The Fantasy World of Political Polling,” by Jay Caspian Kang “Is There a Method to Donald Trump's Madness?,” by Clare Malone “How Powerful Is Political Charm?,” by Joshua Rothman “Donald Trump's Many Lucky Breaks,” by John Cassidy Tune in wherever you get your podcasts.Share your thoughts on The Political Scene. As a token of our appreciation, you will be eligible to enter a prize drawing up to $1,000 after you complete the survey.https://selfserve.decipherinc.com/survey/selfserve/222b/76152?pin=1&uBRANDLINK=4&uCHANNELLINK=2

In this episode, our hosts Bruce Lesley and Messellech “Selley” Looby chat with pollster and political strategist Celinda Lake. Lake is President and Founder of Lake Research Partners, a national public opinion and political strategy research firm.Lake walks our hosts through public polling that shows voters strongly favor investing in children and centering them in public policy. The data contradicts lawmakers' inclination to treat children's issues as an afterthought. Lake outlines the unique challenges facing child advocates and ways to increase public attention to the needs of children and families.To see the full results of the Lake Research Partners poll for First Focus on Children, go to https://firstfocus.org/blog/fact-sheet-voters-support-investments-in-kids. As a pollster, Lake hears every variety of opinion on contentious political issues. Yet, she's found that Americans are more united than they seem and she's passionate about using that information to fight the rising problem of political polarization. Be sure to check out Lake Research Partners and follow on Twitter at @celindalake and @lake_research. Lake's recent book with Ed Goaes, A Question of Respect, can be found at https://www.amazon.com/Question-RESPECT-Bringing-Together-Divided/dp/1636980406/. To join the conversation, follow First Focus on Children on Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter. Connect with our hosts and tell us what you would like to hear on the podcast at: Email: SpeakingOfKids@firstfocus.orgTwitter: @SpeakingOfKids @BruceLesley and @First_Focus And please rate and review this podcast and share it with friends and family.Want to be a voice for kids? Become an Ambassador for Children here. Connect with First Focus Campaign for Children for easy training on how to be a powerful advocate for children. Please consider donating to First Focus on Children here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Over the weekend, Donald Trump's rage over his debate fiasco appeared to get darker. In one splenetic social media post after another, he fumed he actually won the debate, while erupting repeatedly at ABC News' moderation of it. All this comes as a whole bunch of new polling shows that Kamala Harris has made some surprising post-debate gains against Trump. We talked to veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake about the deeper causes for optimism inside the new data, what Harris still needs to do to win, and the deeper theory of the case driving all the successful baiting of Trump. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the weekend, Donald Trump's rage over his debate fiasco appeared to get darker. In one splenetic social media post after another, he fumed he actually won the debate, while erupting repeatedly at ABC News' moderation of it. All this comes as a whole bunch of new polling shows that Kamala Harris has made some surprising post-debate gains against Trump. We talked to veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake about the deeper causes for optimism inside the new data, what Harris still needs to do to win, and the deeper theory of the case driving all the successful baiting of Trump. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the weekend, Donald Trump's rage over his debate fiasco appeared to get darker. In one splenetic social media post after another, he fumed he actually won the debate, while erupting repeatedly at ABC News' moderation of it. All this comes as a whole bunch of new polling shows that Kamala Harris has made some surprising post-debate gains against Trump. We talked to veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake about the deeper causes for optimism inside the new data, what Harris still needs to do to win, and the deeper theory of the case driving all the successful baiting of Trump. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

“I think some of the biggest themes throughout (Project 2025) are a sort of reorganization or dismantling of some of our environment agencies. They literally use the word ‘dismantled' for what they would like to do to NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The others are a little bit more subtle, but they talk about shifting senior career staffers out of the EPAs office of water. So, it's all sorts of, you know, reorganizing and rearranging these agencies and doing so in a way that might make them, or that is going to make them, less protective of the climate.” Rachel Frazin on Electric Ladies Podcast You may have heard about Project 2025, the 900-page far-right conservative blueprint for a potential Trump 2.0 administration developed by the Heritage Foundation and about 140 former Trump officials. But what's in it that could affect the country's ability to address climate change and how we power our economy?   Listen to Rachel Frazin, Energy and Environment Reporter at The Hill explain what specific provisions will affect climate and energy in this insightful discussion with Electric Ladies host Joan Michelson. You'll want to know this before you vote. You'll hear: What exactly is in Project 2025 related to water, air, weather management, and the environment. How Project 2025 proposes about our energy system and energy efficiency and what the impact would be on climate change, greenhouse gases and our air. Who Project 2025 prioritizes in the economy…and so much more. How candidate choice really matters this election – and how to do your research. Plus, insightful career advice, such as… “Being open-minded to new opportunities, I very much lucked into the energy environment and climate world…and I have fallen in love with it. So I think, you know, just being open to opportunities is huge. Generally, having a positive attitude, but also thinking critically, being skeptical, especially as a journalist. I like to be open-minded and believe that good ideas and good policies and can come from anyone and anywhere. But I also…don't take anything for granted… I encourage everybody to do their research.” Rachel Frazin on Electric Ladies Podcast Read Joan's Forbes articles here. You'll also like: Celinda Lake, CEO, Lake Research Partners, opinion research firm on women voters and climate. Anna Siefken, Deputy Director, Federal Energy Management Program, Dept. of Energy, on how the federal government reduces the energy use and carbon footprint of its 350,000 buildings. Rachel McCleery, Senior Advisor, Treasury Dept. Inflation Reduction Act Program, on how to leverage the IRA to save money reducing a building or business's energy use and carbon footprint. Vanessa Chan, Ph.D., Chief Commercialization Officer of the Department of Energy and Director of the Office of Technology Transitions, on the Inflation Reduction Act and the transition to clean energy. Lisa Jacobson of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy & Tara Narayanan, of Bloomberg NEF on their new Energy Factbook 2024, including the Inflation Reduction Act opportunities. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers.. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

In this episode, we are honored to host Celinda Lake, one of the nation's foremost experts on public opinion research and political strategy. Celinda is the President of Lake Research Partners, a renowned Democratic polling firm, and has played a pivotal role in shaping national conversations on critical issues including healthcare, education, and women's rights. With an impressive career spanning decades, Celinda has advised progressive groups, Democratic candidates, and advocacy organizations, using her keen insights to influence policy and public opinion.Join us as we delve into the complex and evolving issue of abortion in the United States. Celinda shares her expert analysis on the current state of abortion rights, the strategies and challenges faced by pro-abortion forces, and the key legislative initiatives unfolding in several states.Key Points Discussed:The Changing Landscape of Abortion Rights: Celinda explains how recent legislative actions have dramatically altered access to abortion services in the US, with a focus on the pivotal Supreme Court decisions and state-level restrictions.Pro-Abortion Forces and Their Strategies: We explore the mobilization of pro-abortion advocacy groups, their strategies to counteract restrictive laws, and their efforts to protect and expand reproductive rights.State Initiatives and Legislative Changes: Celinda provides an overview of significant legislative initiatives in key states, discussing why these states have become battlegrounds for abortion rights and the implications for women across the country.Impact on Women's Access to Medical Treatment: We discuss the practical consequences for women, including the increasing need for women to travel to different states to obtain necessary medical treatments and the barriers they face in doing so.The Gender Gap in Voter Behavior: Is the gender gap in voter behavior increasing or decreasing? Celinda offers her insights into how abortion rights are influencing women voters, the shifting political dynamics, and what this means for future elections.This episode is a must-listen for anyone seeking to understand the current state of abortion rights in America and the broader implications for women's health and political engagement. Tune in for an enlightening and thought-provoking conversation with Celinda LakeAll this and more on No Holding Back with Susan Estrich.Sign up to receive updates by email when a new episode drops at: www.noholdingback.fm/Produced by 1985 Productions

Lisa MacLean, founder of Moxie Media - the first female-founded political direct mail firm in the U.S - talks her path to politics...starting in St Louis and then Vassar, to impactful DC internships, managing campaigns in California and eventually starting her own mail firm in the late 1990s that recently celebrated its 25th Anniversary. In this conversation, Lisa talks overcoming adversity as a young woman in politics, the nuts and bolts of how she started her own firm, some of her big races and wins, direct mail best practices and trends, and much more from her 30+ years as a top political operative.IN THIS EPISODEGrowing up middle-class in the St. Louis suburbs...The searing experience in 9th grade that drove home the importance of politics...How the Senate vote to confirm Clarence Thomas changed the course of Lisa's career...Lisa talks what it was like to go to college at Vassar in the late 80s...Lessons learned during and after the 1992 "Year of the Woman"...A personal story Lisa tells about a very difficult experience as a young woman in a media firm...How Lisa decided to start her own direct mail firm and how she got it off the ground...The biggests changes in direct mail over Lisa's 25 years in the business...Some of the memorable races where Lisa feels smart direct mail made a difference...The direct mail trends Lisa is monitoring...Lessons Lisa learned in running and growing a successful mail firm over 25 years...The story behind the name "Moxie Media"...A glimpse into living in rural, coastal Washington (state)...AND Jill Alper, Sasha Bruce, Andrea Campbell, Yadira Caraveo, Amy Chapman, Tony Coehlo, Michael Dukakis, free shrimp cocktail, Patty Garamendi, The Good Neighbor News, Lisa Grove, Anita Hill, Trish Hoppey, Mary Hughes, Tishaura Jones, Celinda Lake, Kevin Mack, Hal Malchow, Laurie Moskowitz, Pat Moynihan, Adnaan Muslin, Amy Pritchard, Rich Schlackman, Amy Simon, Heather Stone, Clarence Thomas, tomboys, Henry Underhill, Karen White, the Womens Information Network, Harriett Woods...& more!

“Women often have far more skills than their resumes translate into. And actually we're going into a good period now where I think employers and organizations are looking for the skillset that you have more than the job titles that you have. And that's good for women because we have a lot of skills that we will have acquired in different arenas. Bring in your all… It's tough out there. It requires resilience, but just remember that you have a tremendous amount to offer and, um, you know it, and sooner or later somebody's going to figure that out too.” Celinda Lake on Electric Ladies podcast  The highly-accomplished women who appear on Electric Ladies Podcast give powerful and insightful career advice in every episode. Since listeners have asked us to air collages of some of that advice now and then, here is our next one. This episode brings you advice from: ·       Celinda Lake, Founder/CEO of Lake Research Partners, renowned 30-year old opinion research firm ·       Mary Morrissey, Renowned Leadership Coach & Author of several books including, “Brave Thinking” ·       Michele Mueller, head of Automation, Connectivity and Electrification at Michigan Dept. of Transportation ·       Evelyne Saelens, UL Solutions ESG Advisory Lead ·       Katie McGinty, Chief Sustainability Officer of Johnson Controls Read Joan's Forbes articles here too – which also include career advice, as well as ways to stay abreast of the clean, green economy. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers.. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

In the wake of Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts, Republican anger at the verdict is getting darker, with GOP leaders talking about holding hearings and even defunding other prosecutions of Trump. But Democrats are not engaging this debate nearly as intensively, and appear divided over how to proceed. This is puzzling: The furious GOP defense of Trump is deranged and reckless, and would almost certainly be deeply unpopular—if voters are made to understand it. We talked to veteran Democratic strategist Celinda Lake, who suggested ways the party might find a stronger and more unified posture in this battle going forward. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts, Republican anger at the verdict is getting darker, with GOP leaders talking about holding hearings and even defunding other prosecutions of Trump. But Democrats are not engaging this debate nearly as intensively, and appear divided over how to proceed. This is puzzling: The furious GOP defense of Trump is deranged and reckless, and would almost certainly be deeply unpopular—if voters are made to understand it. We talked to veteran Democratic strategist Celinda Lake, who suggested ways the party might find a stronger and more unified posture in this battle going forward. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In the wake of Donald Trump's conviction on 34 felony counts, Republican anger at the verdict is getting darker, with GOP leaders talking about holding hearings and even defunding other prosecutions of Trump. But Democrats are not engaging this debate nearly as intensively, and appear divided over how to proceed. This is puzzling: The furious GOP defense of Trump is deranged and reckless, and would almost certainly be deeply unpopular—if voters are made to understand it. We talked to veteran Democratic strategist Celinda Lake, who suggested ways the party might find a stronger and more unified posture in this battle going forward. Listen to this episode here. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

While the political world waits for a verdict in Donald Trump's criminal trial in Manhattan, we wanted to take a moment to remember how we got here — especially the broader political context of the fall of 2016.Mr. Trump is charged with falsifying business records related to a hush-money payment to the adult film actress Stormy Daniels as part of a scheme to influence the outcome of the 2016 presidential election.Back in 2016, Mr. Trump was down in the polls and worried about losing support from women voters, who would, the thinking went, punish him at the ballot box for the lewd “Access Hollywood” tape and anything Ms. Daniels might make public.That of course is not what happened. And in the years since, assumptions about how women vote have come to feel more complicated.To discuss this, we turn to two women who have spent many years thinking about what women want when it comes to politics and everything else.Kellyanne Conway was Mr. Trump's campaign manager in 2016 and senior counselor to him from 2017 to 2020. Celinda Lake was one of the lead pollsters for the Biden campaign in 2020.In 2005, they wrote a book together called “What Women Really Want,” which argued that politicians needed to take seriously the particular desires of women, who make up more than 50 percent of the electorate.So this week we ask: What's changed since 2005? And do Ms. Conway and Ms. Lake still agree on what women really want?

On this week's episode of 'The Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart': Tomorrow morning, Donald Trump will become the first former American president to face a jury of his peers in a criminal trial. And that's just days before the Supreme Court considers his claim of presidential immunity. It's a decision that could be a game-changer in legal efforts to hold him accountable. Glenn Kirschner and Mark Joseph Stern will break down the monumental week ahead. Now that the House has finally passed aid for Ukraine, we'll take a closer look at what it will really take to keep Putin and other autocrats in check. Retired General and former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Wesley Clark tells me his advice for the President. Plus, new NBC News polling shows President Biden's approval rating inching higher and his race against Donald Trump getting tighter. NBC's Mark Murray and pollster Celinda Lake explain the story behind the numbers. All that and more on “The Sunday Show with Jonathan Capehart.” 

Financial Support For Exporting, Trade – Judith Pryor, Export Import Bank of U.S. “We help anyone in the United States who wants to sell their good or service overseas through short, medium, and long-term financing tools for international buyers. It's usually medium term and long term. We provide foreign buyers with the ability to purchase U.S. goods and services. So we're debt financiers to buyers of American goods and services. On the flip side of that, and more often with small businesses than not, we provide export credit insurance, which is short term, 30, 60, 90 days to ensure payment of goods received.” Judith Pryor on Electric Ladies Podcast One of the most important lessons from the pandemic economy is that we can collaborate across borders and industries, even with competitors, when it's for mutual benefit. Addressing climate change takes that kind of collaboration too. These deals are risky and complicated, but there's a small government agency that most businesses and entrepreneurs don't know is there to help structure and secure the deal, reducing the risk. It's called the Export Import Bank of the U.S. (EXIM Bank). Listen to this fascinating interview with Vice Chair and First Vice President of the EXIM Bank, Judith Pryor, on Electric Ladies Podcast with host Joan Michelson (live at the EXIM Bank office). You'll hear: How the EXIM Bank works, deals it can help with and how it can secure financing across borders. How EXIM Bank helps bring electricity to rural areas, and helps U.S. manufacturers secure their supply chains. How EXIM Bank earns billions of dollars in revenue on its deals that goes toward paying down the national debt. Particular support EXIM Bank provides for women- and minority-owned businesses doing trade deals. How economic security and international trade support national security. Plus, insightful career advice “I have a couple of quotes that I have written on my blackboard that I use often when I'm speaking publicly. And one of them is, ‘whatever you are, be a good one.' That was Abraham Lincoln said that. So it's, if this is what you've chosen to do, be good at it. Do give your best, give your all.…You're going to have bad days, but try to make them good days ….I have a fortune cookie phrase that ca literally came out of a cookie that I have taped my monitor upstairs that says, listen to yourself more often. I think as a woman, yes, we tend to question ourselves more.” Judith Pryor on Electric Ladies podcast   You'll also want to listen to: (some might be recorded under our previous name, Green Connections Radio) Kristen Sullivan, Deloitte Audit Partner & Head of the firm's Sustainability practice, on the final SEC climate rules Polly Trottenberg, U.S. Deputy Secretary of Transportation, on the transportation revolution taking place. Celinda Lake, Founder/CEO of Lake Research Partners, on women voters, climate and the 2024 election. Suzy Deering, (then) Chief Marketing Officer, Ford – on bringing change to a legacy industry as an outsider. Isabelle Grosmaitre, Founder/CEO of Goodness & Co. climate resilience and ESG consulting firm. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

“Women are very worried about these (extreme weather) events, and they're the ones that really worry about the impact on communities.…They want to leave a better country for their children...They will say that climate change is something that really is on my agenda more because my children talk to me about it and they listen to their children and grandchildren. That said, the urgency around climate change ebbs and flows a little bit. Many of the single issue climate change voters are also single issue war and Gaza voters. So that's pushed this issue out a little bit. But in the long run, women are very worried about the climate.”   Celinda Lake on Electric Ladies Podcast We are in the midst of the most consequential election in modern history, when democracy is literally on the ballot, as is protecting the planet. President Biden passed the largest climate mitigation legislation in history, with $3 trillion in investment and financial incentives in clean energy, communities, etc.  The Republican nominee, “former guy” is in the pocket of fossil fuels and promises to reverse all that funding. What do women voters want? Listen to master opinion researcher Celinda Lake, Founder/CEO of Lake Research Partners for the unvarnished truth, with Electric Ladies podcast host Joan Michelson.   You'll hear: How women voters today feel about climate change and how it influences their voting. How opinion research really works in today's polarized electorate with layers of technology and unconscious messaging to penetrate. How to talk about climate change to women voters so they listen and respond with urgency. How her being raised in Montana has made her a better opinion researcher. Plus, insightful career advice …. “Women often have far more skills than their resumes translate into. And actually we're going into a good period now where I think employers and organizations are looking for the skillset that you have more than the job titles that you have. And that's good for women because we have a lot of skills that we will have acquired in different arenas. Bring in your all… It's tough out there. It requires resilience, but just remember that you have a tremendous amount to offer and, um, you know it, and sooner or later somebody's going to figure that out too.” Celinda Lake on Electric Ladies podcast You'll also want to listen to: Joan Michelson hosts a Forum at The Newseum on the Constitutional Amendment that certified women's right to vote, the 19th Amendment. Marcia Chatelain, Ph.D., Professor of American History at Georgetown University on the power of black women voters. Brooke Kroeger, author of “The Suffragents,” about the men who supported women's right to vote. Vanessa Chan, Ph.D, Chief Commercialization Officer of the Department of Energy on transforming our energy systems (and the Inflation Reduction Act funding) Heather Boushey, Member of the National Council of Economic Advisors in the White House and Chief Economist of the Invest in America Cabinet “The Power of Women Voters,” Joan Michelson's Forbes article on the anniversary of the certification of women's right to vote. Subscribe to our newsletter to receive our podcasts, blog, events and special coaching offers.. Thanks for subscribing on Apple Podcasts or iHeartRadio and leaving us a review! Follow us on Twitter @joanmichelson

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former President Donald Trump notched a series of Republican presidential primary victories as he barrels closer toward his party's nomination. Hosts Joe Mathieu and Kailey Leinz speak with former Virginia Governor, Republican Jim Gilmore, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake and Bloomberg politics contributors Rick Davis and Jeanne Sheehan Zaino for analysis and reaction.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

China's leaders have set an ambitious target of 5% GDP for the year ahead - despite weaknesses in the world's second largest economy. Will Bain asks former IMF economist David Woo what that target really means. With Super Tuesday upon us, one of President Biden's 2020 campaign pollsters Celinda Lake tells us what she makes of the evening's events to come. Plus we hear from Maarten Boute, the interim chief executive and chairman of the Telecoms major Digicel, about Haiti - and how you try to operate a business in such a difficult climate of violence.

I'm thrilled to welcome Anat Shenker-Osorio back to the show. It's been a while -- the last time she was here was in July of 2014! Yes, she's been trying to help progressives win elections for many years and I thought this was the perfect time to have her impart some of her wisdom to our listeners. As she explains at the start of her great podcast WORDS TO WIN BY, Anat is a researcher, message maker, and campaign advisor in addition to author and podcaster.  An essay in the NY Times she co-wrote with Norm Eisen and Celinda Lake caught my eye and was, as expected, brilliant and necessary, so I reached out and here we are. Please pay attention to what Anat says. She'll give you practical advice for how to respond to defeatist messaging (from those ostensibly on our side!), to  the politically naive, and those who are just plain wrong about everything. --- Send in a voice message: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/nicolesandler/message

In this episode, our hosts Bruce Lesley and Messellech “Selley” Looby chat with pollster and political strategist Celinda Lake. Lake is President and Founder of Lake Research Partners, a national public opinion and political strategy research firm.Lake walks our hosts through public polling that shows voters strongly favor investing in children and centering them in public policy. The data contradicts lawmakers' inclination to treat children's issues as an afterthought. Lake outlines the unique challenges facing child advocates and ways to increase public attention to the needs of children and families.To see the full results of the Lake Research Partners poll for First Focus on Children, go to https://firstfocus.org/blog/fact-sheet-voters-support-investments-in-kids. As a pollster, Lake hears every variety of opinion on contentious political issues. Yet, she's found that Americans are more united than they seem and she's passionate about using that information to fight the rising problem of political polarization. Be sure to check out Lake Research Partners and follow on Twitter at @celindalake and @lake_research. Lake's recent book with Ed Goaes, A Question of Respect, can be found at https://www.amazon.com/Question-RESPECT-Bringing-Together-Divided/dp/1636980406/. To join the conversation, follow First Focus on Children on Instagram, LinkedIn, and Twitter. Connect with our hosts and tell us what you would like to hear on the podcast at: Email: SpeakingOfKids@firstfocus.orgTwitter: @SpeakingOfKids @BruceLesley and @First_Focus And please rate and review this podcast and share it with friends and family.Want to be a voice for kids? Become an Ambassador for Children here. Connect with First Focus Campaign for Children for easy training on how to be a powerful advocate for children. Please consider donating to First Focus on Children here. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

How are rural people feeling about the future? What are they concerned about? What do they value? Pollster Celinda Lake talks with Center for Rural Strategies President Dee Davis about the findings of a soon-to-be-released poll that explores what's on the minds of rural voters in 2023. "We really asked questions to get beyond the surface, and we looked in-depth at concerns and values and then support for policies," Lake says. "And what I loved about it was that the poll was really defying a lot of conventional wisdom."   Find the video, interview highlights, and transcript at https://www.ruralassembly.org. About the guest Celinda Lake is a pollster and political strategist who is considered one of the nation's foremost experts on electing women candidates and on framing issues to women voters. President of the polling firm Lake Research Partners, Lake grew up on a ranch in rural Montana. American Politics calls Celinda a "super-strategist or, better yet, the Godmother," and Working Woman says she is "arguably the most influential woman in her field." 

Rich Schlackman is best known as a pioneer of all things direct mail - and he continues to hit the mail box and also spearheads important efforts as a GC and has expanded his reach to digital messaging. In this conversation, Rich talks his early activist roots at the '68 Democratic Convention and with names like Jane Fonda and Tom Hayden...why he gravitated to political direct mail in the mid 70s...how he took the "California Style" of mail national in the 80s and 90s...diving deep into his best practices and favorite races...plus some of the efforts for which he's been a General Consultant, like ousting Chesa Boudin as San Francisco DA last year. And of course a conversation with Rich is not complete without hearing how he became the leading wine expert among political consultants and getting his tips to make anyone a little smarter on the topic. This is a fun conversation with one of the most colorful and ground-breaking consultants in the industry.IN THIS EPISODERich grows up in a heavily union neighborhood in NYC and becomes active in the anti-Vietnam War movement...Rich's experiences as a protestor at the '68 Democratic Convention...Rich talks his time around activists Jane Fonda and Tom Hayden...How Rich pivots to direct mail in the 1970s...Rich innovates the "California style" of direct mail in the 70s and 80s...Rich talks the rise of the national direct mail firms in the 80s and 90s...Rich on a few of his favorite clients, including Congressman Vic Fazio, Governor Janet Napolitano, and nearly beating Newt Gingrich in 1990...Rich talks his time working for Senator Joe Lieberman...Rich's favorite Bay Area races, including figuring out how to handle ranked-choice voting...Rich recounts GCing the recent successful effort to recall San Francisco DA Chesa Boudin...Rich's insights from working with Gavin Newsom on the now-Governor's very first local race in San Francisco...Rich talks some of the most frustrating "input" received from others on his mail...Rich on the evolution of mail and targeting over the course of his career...Ten minutes picking Rich's brain on his famed expertise on wine...AND Saul Alinsky, Bill Andresen, Applecart, Ross Bates, Evan Bayh, the Berman Machine, Ruth Bernstein, billy clubs, Willie Brown, CHAID analysis, the Campaign for Economic Democracy, Fidel Castro, Jim Chapman, Chris Cooper, Barry Dill, Bob Dole, drop letters, Bob Edgar, Rahm Emanuel, Carter Eskew, gloss paper, Ruth Yannatta Goldway, Matt Gonzalez, Lisa Grove, Mandy Grunwalkd, Edd Hargett, Dan Hazelwood, Abie Hoffman, Wayne Johnson, Kansas politics, Celinda Lake, Ned Lamont, Mel Levine, Hal Malchow, Milton Marks, John McCain, David Metts, Bob Mulholland, Jerry Nadler, Joe Napolitan, No Labels, Mark Penn, phony tabloids, the Port Huron Statement, The Rare Wine Company, Norm Rice, H.L. Richardson, Ben Rosenthal, Michael Rowan, Dr. Bill Roy, Jerry Rubin, Tony Schwartz, Saul Shorr, George Soros, Andy Spahn, Bob Squier, Marty Stone, The Valley Messenger, Pete Visclosky, Voter Contact Services, Lowell Weicker, Scott Weiner, David Worley, the Yippie Revolution....& more!

[EPISODE ORIGINALLY RECORDED FEBRUARY 2021]Lisa Grove has been a leading Democratic strategist and pollster for 25+ years, helping elect a President, Senators, Governors, and more. She also developed a reputation for winning tough ballot measures and helped refine messaging to advance the cause of marriage equality. In this conversation (recorded February '21), she talks her roots in Oregon politics and activism, being drawn to polling, her early days in the business, starting her own firm in the mid 90s, and stories & insight from a successful career that has spanned several decades.IN THIS EPISODELisa grows up in Portland, OR inspired by the activism around her...Lisa's early jobs in politics in route to becoming a pollster...Lisa talks learning from famed pollster Nancy Belden...Lisa on her approach to focus groups and her favorite focus group stories...How and why Lisa started her own polling firm in the mid 90s...How Lisa made it work as a pollster living in Hawaii...How Lisa's chalked up a successful record on ballot measures...Lisa's work helping advance the cause of marriage equality...Some of the celebrities Lisa has worked with over the years and her current work with Billie Eilish...AND John Anderson, John Anzalone, Brian Baird, Maggie Baird, Warren Beatty, Nancy Belden, Sergio Bendixen, Anna Bennett, Ami Bera, Brian Bilbray, Graeme Blair, Shirley Chisolm, Tom Daschle, Susan Davis, Peter DeFazio, Barry Diller, Tom Donilon, Mike Dukakis, Matt Erickson, Pablo Escobar, Lily Eskelsen, feather boas, Diane Feldman, Sarah Flowers, Cesar Gaviria, Dick Gephardt, the Golden Rule, Martin Hamburger, Hanford Nuclear Site, Darlene Hooley, Jack Mormons, Ron Kind, Celinda Lake, Ed Lazarus, Norman Lear, Carl Levin, Sandy Levin, Rush Limbaugh, Jeff Liszt, Jon Macks, mai tais, Tom McCall, Mark Mellman, Howard Metzenbaum, Mr. Steak, Ralph Nader, Narcos, Finneas O'Connell, Bob Packwood, Jessica Paulson, paradise guilt, the princess ad, Christy Quirk, Rob Reiner, Barbara Roberts, Michael Robinson, Will Robinson, Rich Schlackman, Barbra Streisand, sustainable furniture, swagger, tattoos, Third Way, tissue paper flowers, Joe Trippi, Univision, Melissa Williams, Ron Wyden, Yucca Mountain & more!

With all the new entrants into the 2024 GOP primary - does it really matter? Pollster and longtime Democratic strategist Celinda Lake joins Joe and Alex - and you won't be surprised at what her answer is. What might the conventional wisdom on swing voters be missing? And what three factors does Celinda see as defining the race? Follow Celinda on Twitter @CelindaLake. Support this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/that-trippi-show/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

On the radio show this week we cover hope in motion in states like Michigan; why the recent introduction of the FAMILY Act (paid family/medical leave) and Healthy Families Act (earned sick days) is a big, BIG deal for everyone; we also celebrate the re-introduction of the MOMNIBUS, to help improve maternal health and advance health equity; and we close the show hearing what's on mom's minds – and what every candidate should know – from a top pollster in America.  *Special guests include: Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow, @mallorymcmorrow; Vasu Reddy, National Partnership for Women & Families, @NPWF; Monifa Bandele, MomsRising, @MomsRising @MamasConPoder; and Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners, @Lake_Research

On the radio show this week we cover hope in motion in states like Michigan; why the recent introduction of the FAMILY Act (paid family/medical leave) and Healthy Families Act (earned sick days) is a big, BIG deal for everyone; we also celebrate the re-introduction of the MOMNIBUS, to help improve maternal health and advance health equity; and we close the show hearing what's on mom's minds – and what every candidate should know – from a top pollster in America. *Special guests include: Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow, @mallorymcmorrow; Vasu Reddy, National Partnership for Women & Families, @NPWF; Monifa Bandele, MomsRising, @MomsRising @MamasConPoder; and Celinda Lake, Lake Research Partners, @Lake_Research

This week's guests are Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas, award winning political pollsters and strategists who came together to write A Question of Respect: Bringing Us Together in a Deeply Divided Nation. The book is an exploration of how America grew so divided and how we might come back together. In this episode, Justin asks Celinda and Ed what they think of the state of our democracy now, and why this was the right time to write their book. Celinda and Ed talk about three key parts of the book — social media, super PACs and cable news — and Justin asks both what they see as solutions in a difficult political time. Transcript here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LP7U7gRdjoktrZDtUadzT35OM5Hlf6IPRqh_dYruQiw/edit

Joe Biden makes it official. House Republicans pass a debt ceiling bill that eliminates healthcare for millions. Disney sues Ron DeSantis. Democratic pollster Celinda Lake stops by to talk about the President's road to 270 electoral votes. Then, Jon and Dan sort through the many wild rumors and theories about why Fox News fired Tucker Carlson. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast. 

President Joe Biden formally announced that he is running for a second term. In Tuesday's announcement, Biden echoed familiar themes from his 2020 campaign. He said the country is still in a battle for the soul of the nation and that democracy is at stake in 2024. Laura Barrón-López reports from the White House and we get insight from two Democratic strategists, Jim Messina and Celinda Lake. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

President Joe Biden formally announced that he is running for a second term. In Tuesday's announcement, Biden echoed familiar themes from his 2020 campaign. He said the country is still in a battle for the soul of the nation and that democracy is at stake in 2024. Laura Barrón-López reports from the White House and we get insight from two Democratic strategists, Jim Messina and Celinda Lake. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Another mass shooting with an AR-15 armed shooter brings more thoughts and prayers from NRA-owned politicians … and that's about all. In Washington. While Republicans in the U.S. House focus on protecting kids from drag queens and classic books … instead of protecting them from being shot in their classrooms … Michigan's Legislature continues to do just the opposite. Gun safety is the latest issue to move from campaign promises all the way to the Governor's desk. Also enacted in this hyper-active legislative session: returning union rights to workers and civil rights for all Michiganders regardless of sexual identity or orientation. Joining the discussion this week is Democratic Party pollster Celinda Lake with insights on how Democrats can leverage the MAGA takeover of the Republican Party and reclaim the allegiance of Midwest blue-collar voters. Celinda is one of the Democratic Party's leading political strategists. She was one of two lead pollsters for the Biden campaign in 2020 and continues to serve as a pollster to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), other national party committees, and dozens of Democratic incumbents and challengers at all levels of the electoral process. Celinda and her firm, Lake Research Partners, are known for cutting-edge research on issues including the economy, health care, the environment, and education. Celinda, a native of Montana—born and raised on a ranch—and one of the political world's most avid whitewater rafters, holds a master's degree in Political Science and Survey Research from the University of Michigan and her undergraduate degree from Smith College in Massachusetts, where she graduated Summa Cum Laude. She is co-author of a must-read book on political strategy, “A Question of Respect.” Celinda teamed up with Republican pollster Ed Goeas to provide a political resource and a compelling case for how the nation reached a moment of massive political divisions, where it needs to go, and what it will take to get there. She also led research on behalf of American Family Values of how the Democrats' brand in the Midwest is damaged in blue-collar counties. The report concludes that “Democrats have their best opportunity to make progress in these counties in a generation.” =========================== This week's podcast is underwritten in part by EPIC-MRAEPIC ▪ MRA is a full service survey research firm with expertise in: • Public Opinion Surveys • Market Research Studies • Live Telephone Surveys • On-Line and Automated Surveys • Focus Group Research • Bond Proposals - Millage Campaigns • Political Campaigns & Consulting • Ballot Proposals - Issue Advocacy Research • Community - Media Relations • Issue - Image Management • Database Development & List Management =========================== Links to Stories We're Following This Week Democratic Report Explores Blue-Collar Struggles: ‘Our Brand Is Pretty Damaged' - The New York Times A Question of Respect Path to the Majority: Expanding the Map - Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Opinion | The GOP gains among ‘voters of color' are overhyped - Perry Bacon/The Washington Post Democratic Report Explores Blue-Collar Struggles: ‘Our Brand Is Pretty Damaged' - The New York Times Path to the Majority: Expanding the Map - Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee Opinion | The GOP gains among ‘voters of color' are overhyped - Perry Bacon/The Washington Post Benson won't run for U.S. Senate in Michigan in 2024 - Detroit News Legislature's three-month sprint reflects sea change in Michigan politics - Detroit News Michigan 1st state in decades to repeal 'right-to-work' law - AP News New Laws Enacted so far in 2023 - Legislative Service Bureau Michigan GOP shoots itself in foot linking gun control to Holocaust - Detroit Free Press Michigan GOP slammed for comparing gun reform to Holocaust - AP News Michigan is passing gun safety laws.

Tucker Carlson hates Donald Trump but loves his insurrectionists, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake stops by to talk about Joe Biden's new economic plan, and Chief Take Officer Elijah Cone joins for a game of Take Take Don't Tell Me. For a closed-captioned version of this episode, click here. For a transcript of this episode, please email transcripts@crooked.com and include the name of the podcast.

Pollsters Ed Goeas and Celinda Lake join The Great Battlefield podcast to talk about their book "A Question of Respect: Bringing Us Together in a Deeply Divided Nation".

We have a special post State of the Union episode today! Biden really knocked it out of the park with this historic speech so we will break it down. Joining us to help us analyze the messages and let us know how we can keep amplifying them, is one of the Democratic Party's leading political strategists and pollsters, Celinda Lake. Wisconsin Supreme Court Race https://swingleft.org/p/wisconsin-supreme-court Follow us on Twitter: @HowWeWinPod @BluesBoySteve @jenancona www.howwewinpod.com Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Talmage Boston holds a live cross-examination style interview of Ed Goeas on his new book A Question of RESPECT: Bringing Us Together in a Deeply Divided Nation which he co-authored with Celinda Lake. Goeas is an author, premier pollster, and political veteran of Washington DC of over 40 years.

Midterms are right around the corner. What issues REALLY matter most to voters? Who will win the House and the Senate? Will Trump and Biden face off again in 2024? To get the answers, Kasich & Klepper turn to Celinda Lake, one of the country's top Democratic pollsters, and Ed Goeas, a prominent republican pollster and partner at Tarrance Group. They explain how polling accuracy has changed over the decades, why people often lie to pollsters, and whether voters really care about civility in politics. They also discuss where abortion rights, immigration, climate change, crime, and the economy rank in importance to voters going into the November elections. Celinda Lake and Ed Goeas' upcoming book, “A QUESTION OF RESPECT: Bringing Us Together in a Deeply Divided Nation” is available for pre-order now. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Jerry Austin is probably best known as the campaign manager for Reverend Jesse Jackson's '88 Presidential Campaign that won 11 contests and led in delegates deep into the calendar...and he also served as manager, media consultant, advisor to names like Paul Wellstone, Carol Moselely Braun, Sherrod Brown, Paul Tsongas and many more. In this conversation, Jerry talks the '88 Jackson race and high points and lessons learned from decades working with some of the biggest names in American politics. Plus Jerry previews his book series TRUE TALES FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL...pulling together the best campaign war stories from a bipartisan coterie of top political consultants. IN THIS EPISODEJerry grows up in a union household in the South Bronx…Protesting the Vietnam War leads Jerry to a political career…Jerry's early connection to rising star and future Ohio Governor Dick Celeste…A deep dive on Jerry's time managing the 1988 presidential campaign of Reverend Jesse Jackson…Jerry tells some great Willie Brown stories…The first two moves he took to make Jesse Jackson a credible national candidate in 1988…Wisconsin becomes a “make or break” state for Jackson in the '88 primaries…How closely was Reverend Jackson considered for the VP nomination n 1988…Jerry's thoughts on how Jackson '88 blazed the trail for both Clinton '92 and Obama '08…Jerry's involvement at the start of the career of now Senator Sherrod Brown…Jerry's integral role in the underdog upset win of Paul Wellstone in 1990…The story of Paul Wellstone and Ted Kennedy in a heated argument on the Senate floor…Jerry helps engineer the groundbreaking Senate win of Carol Moseley Braun in 1992…Jerry talks the rise and fall of former Arkansas Governor Jim Guy Tucker…Jerry's brought in to help on Paul Tsongas '92 Presidential…Jerry is an official observer during the “Pinochet plebiscite” in Chile…Jerry talks the origin of his book series “True Tales from the Campaign Trail” and one of his favorite stories…AND Art Agnos, Salvador Allende, David Axelrod, bagels and coffees, Robert Bork, Rudy Boschwitz, Boston People, Charlie Brown, Ted Brown, Virgil Brown, Cadillacs, Tony Celebrezze, Steve Cobble, the Dallas Cowboys, Alan Dixon, Bob Dole, Pete Domenici, duck hunting, Michael Dukakis, Susan Estrich, exit polls, Louis Farrakhan, gentile women, Al Gore, Al Hofeld, Tom Hsieh, Hunter College, Jerry Jones, Celinda Lake, Vito Marcantonio, matching funds, McDonalds' executives, Meridian MS, Howard Metzenbaum, George Mitchell, Walter Mondale, Dee Dee Myers, Barack Obama, pander bears, pariahs, Augusto Pinochet, pipe dreams, scrums, the Secret Service, Hank Sheinkopf, the Tampa Airport, Clarence Thomas, Tulsa, the UN, the US Communist Party, VW bugs, voice votes, Maxine Waters & more!

Less than four months until midterm elections, Democrats are facing a series of headwinds on inflation, gun violence and abortion rights. A New York Times-Siena College poll just out shows 60 percent of voters, including a quarter of Democrats, disapprove of the job President Biden is doing. Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners, a Democratic polling group, joins Laura Barrón-López to discuss. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Donald Trump contemplates a pre-midterm presidential announcement, Joe Biden tries to escape a pre-midterm presidential rut, and with November just four months away, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake joins to talk about where the country is on abortion, inflation, both parties, and more.