GrainTALK

US and the World Winter is still with us but if you look really hard you might see signs of spring. It is the time of year which can be quiet on farms across the greater North American corn belt. However, as the days go by their surely will be more warmth coming over the land with visions of planters heading out into the field. At the same time in South America, harvest and planting are in full swing. That is creating all kinds of variables for market action. Then there is the USDA which chimed in with their latest WASDE report on February the 10th. As reports go the February report is often quiet because it’s sandwiched between the bigger January reports and the later Prospective Planting report in late March. This USDA report did not veer from that script. In the report US corn ending stocks were reduced 100 million bushels but they’re still the largest in seven years. Also too, world stocks outside of the US and China are still tight and there were no changes to South American corn estimates. Corn exports were increased by 100 million bushels up to 3.3 billion bushels which is a record for corn exports. Corn exports are sitting at 2.127 billion bushels. On the soybean side of the ledger US balance sheet remain unchanged from January. There was an increase in production in Brazil which had been widely expected. Brazil soybean production is now expected to be 180 MMTs which is up to 2 MMTs from last month. Simply put, it was a quiet report for soybeans. US soybean ending stocks remained at 350 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks or increased 5 million bushels from last month currently sitting at 931 million bushels. On February 13th corn, soybeans and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.31 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.64 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $11.33 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $11.13. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.48 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.71 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.14 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of February 13th closed at $62.89/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $59.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.03/gallon, up vs the $1.97/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on February 13th, 2026, was .7345 US, up vs the .7188 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario In Ontario it has been an icy cold winter leading up to February the 14th. Parts of Ontario in the snow belt north and West of London as well as toward Barrie have an inundated with snow most of the winter and relief would be welcome. Hopefully this created an environment where winter wheat could survive underneath all the snow. Producers will be looking for some respite as we go into March to facilitate grain movement and production plans for 2026. In the meantime, Agricorp released final figures on last year's crop putting Ontario corn at 191 bushels per acre and soybeans at 46 bushels per acre. Ontario basis levels have hardly changed for grains over the last 30 days since the last Market Trends report. In fact, there’s been a slight improvement in some parts of Ontario with eastern Ontario showing historical advantage on the corn basis. Very surely some of this is because of the terrible yields that were experienced in parts of eastern Ontario last year. As we move ahead it’s pretty clear in this part of Ontario and into Quebec that they will need corn to satisfy their needs. The Canadian dollar remains a significant stimulus to cash grain prices. This has happened even though the Canadian dollar did gain almost $0.02 over the last 30 days. Part of the issue has to do with the American dollar sinking and inversely the Canadian dollar gaining within that paradigm. This will likely continue because the American dollar is seeing pressure it is not seen before partly resulting from some of the political moves being made in the United States. For instance, the American President recently commented that he thought it was a good thing that the US dollar was going down. Foreign exchange markets are more complicated than that but their trade algorithms feed on those comments too. As we move ahead Ontario grain producers should be focused on the value of the Canadian dollar as always but also keep abreast of what’s happening with the US dollar. The two are highly inversely interrelated. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.15 over the March 2026 corn futures on Feb 13th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.47 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.69 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.90 to $3.06 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $7.02. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.72 bu. range. On February 13th the US replacement price for corn was $6.28/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line We are at somewhat of a standstill in grain prices. Or is this the start of something new even to the point of kidding ourselves for a bit thinking it might be the start of a bull market. All three grains have shown a little bit of resilience in the last 10 days meaning something might be up. That might be China coming in and buying US corn and even more soybeans and it may not be. However, corn prices have recovered from the downdraft from the January USDA report and soybeans have moved much higher. Geopolitics is always a factor when it comes to grain prices and China is usually part of that equation. In fact, you might say it’s always old news. Last year they didn’t buy American soybeans until there was some type of dialogue with the American President. This year there seems to be more optimism by the Americans that the Chinese might come around. Part of that is based on their better relationship and the specter that President Trump will be visiting China in April. In many ways this is key. You've got to believe in the run up to that meeting there will be social media posts from the President about selling more soybeans and corn to China. Our trading algorithms feed on that phenomena. The only way to capture market opportunities from this is to have standing market orders ready. A weather market it continues to be if you consider South American production. The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics recently reported that the Safrinha corn planting had reached 46% by mid-February. This is a touch behind where it usually is. At the same time keep in mind that on the Chinese Dalian corn futures exchange prices have been rising since last October. Corn is not quite like wheat; it is grown mostly in the United States but even still producers should keep an eye on market information about the Safrinha crop. Traders in China are looking at that too. As we move into March there will certainly be a shift for some producers from old crop to new crop. Keep in mind that every day of the year is an opportunity to buy and sell grain. 2025 did not offer a very long period of profitable grain pricing opportunities. Who knew we would see some of our largest price increases during harvest time? As we move ahead the March Prospective Planting report looms as a major market mover. However, in the relatively bearish environment which we find ourselves in a big change in acres might not be significant to market action until we actually see what gets planted in late June and July. Commodity Specific Comments Corn As we all know demand for US corn continues to be record setting. This is a very good thing considering that we had 17.02 billion bushels last year. Add a certain point there will be a small tussle for acres between corn and soybeans. Will corn acres be about 95 million this year compared to 99 last year? If they are that is reduction of 4 million acres of corn a fairly major move in the market environment we are in now. We will see if that happens and of course there will be estimates released in late February on the number of acres, but the big prediction will be coming at end of March USDA Prospective Plantings report. Any variation on the script like China buying US corn because there’s has quality concerns will certainly weigh on prices. Simply put, there is so much risk for price as we look ahead toward blowing off the dust on those corn planters. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 10.5 cents lower than the May 2026 contract a neutral to bearish indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 11th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans There is a lot going on in soybeans, possibly increased China buying, a resilient soybean oil market not only with exports abroad but also increased domestic consumption within the United States and possible quality issues in Brazil. For instance, all of these factors are relevant, but the earlier harvested soybeans in the northern part of Mato Grosso have been affected by very rainy weather. Needless to say, with the USDA predicting 180 MMTs of soybeans being produced in Brazil surely it is a minor factor. Brazil continues to be the titan of soybean production and harvest is continuing there at this time. Keep in mind that Brazil has had 19 straight season of production expansion and 75% of their exports go to China. Also keep in mind that Chinese demand growth for soybeans has been in concert with this production increase in Brazil. There is really no sign of this changing other than the fact you have to ask yourself the question can both China and Brazil continue to boost capacity on demand in production respectively. The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 15.25 cents below the May contract considered bearish for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 22nd percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat There are strong wheat crops almost everywhere. As always, these crops are ready to fill supply gaps. There is also rain in the American southwest plains which will help the wheat crop. That’s a partial list of bearish factors with wheat so why is the price been going up recently? Some might argue the law of averages but there’s been some movement up in wheat based on the other commodities. However, it is a bearish environment. Funds have been short wheat since 2022. Breaking out of that might have to be led by soybeans or corn prices catching fire in the next few weeks. In Ontario old crop wheat prices shot up above $7.00 in the last few weeks helping some producers who were tempted to store wheat from last summer. This reflected the increases in futures prices as well as the Canadian dollar still being relatively low in the $0.73 US range. With snow still inundating most of the Ontario wheat crop it is always difficult to know how and when to contract new crop wheat. Is it alive or is it not? As the snow recedes, we should get a better answer. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar has gained about two cents since the last Market Trends report. It is always hard to tell why but the American dollar has been dropping significantly starting about a month ago but has recently been rising getting within three points of its value on the US dollar index where it was in January. Usually, a 2 cent rise in the Canadian dollar means that basis values go down for Ontario producers. It is not as acute this time around but will likely be next time. Still, the Canadian dollar at $0.73 US will always be good for Ontario cash grain prices. As now it stands Ontario farmers need to continue to watch the markets and keep an eye on South America. There is still time for something to change in the big crop that’s coming off there. Also keep in mind that we will have another March WASDE report coming up as well as the big Prospective Plantings report at the end of the month. Then there are the Black Swans, those market events that happen which nobody sees coming. You tell me when they will happen. The challenge for Ontario producers is to balance all of these market factors. It is difficult, but the profession we chose means risk is almost part of our lifeblood. Managing that risk is a continuing experiment for all of us. Markets will continue to be fluid but so will be our ability to price our grain. Each trading session is an opportunity for us. Daily market intelligence will be key. There will be many grain marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Written by Philip Shaw BSc(Agr.)MSc. Email: philip@philipshaw.ca Social Media X @Agridome US and the World January always represents a pivotal time in grain markets as well as farms across the Great North American corn belt. There is always a recalibration but much of it usually has to do with the January USDA report which represents the final numbers on the crop put to bed last year. Future spreads and basis are important but so are the numbers in these USDA reports as they are dialed in to the trading algorithms which generate futures prices around the clock. The January report historically can be explosive for volatility. This year was one of those years. On January 12th the USDA raised corn production to 17.02 billion bushels increasing yield by half a bushel as well as increasing harvested acreage. The corn yield is now forecast to be 186.5 bushels per acre which was way above pre report estimates. The USDA also bumped harvested acreage by 1.3 million acres pushing it up to 91.3 million acres. This was a shock to the market and nearby corn futures plummeted $0.24 on the day. Old crop carryover was bumped up to 1.551 billion bushels while new crop carryover was increased to 2.227 billion bushels. While the corn number was wildly bearish, soybeans were much more benign in comparison to corn. The USDA had a slightly increased harvested acreage of 80.4 million. It kept yield unchanged at 53 bushels per acre putting the total domestic crop at 4.262 billion bushels in 2025. The new crop ending stocks for soybeans totaled 350 million bushels which was up 60 million bushels from last month. The USDA increased Brazilian production to 178 MMTs while keeping Argentinian production at 48.5 MMTs. USDA set planted area for winter wheat in 2026 to be 33 million acres which is down 1% from last year and 2% from 2024. On January 16th corn and soybean futures were lower than the last Market Trends report. Wheat was higher. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.24 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.49 bu. The March 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.69. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.18 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.65 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.04 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of January 16th closed at $59.44/barrel higher vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $57.44/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $1.97/gallon, down vs the $2.04/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on January 16th, 2025, was .7188 US, down vs the .7263 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate remained at 2.25%. Ontario This is a more classic Canadian winter than we’ve had in the near past. Snow and cold temperatures have inundated large parts of the province which can be a double-edged sword. Yes, it is normal Canadian January weather but at the same time there is still some Ontario corn left out in the field. Also too, the snow cover will provide some insulation for the winter wheat lying dormant underneath it. Basis levels are either the same or have increased slightly since the last Market Trends report. This reflects the Canadian dollar still fluttering below the 72 cent US level. The Ontario corn basis level is similar to what it has been in the past few years with the eastern Ontario basis being much higher than southwestern Ontario. This is historical but it also reflects dry weather experienced in much of eastern Ontario this year hurting corn yields. Both corn and soybeans will be exported out of Ontario and Quebec this year. All of it is a reflection of price but it’s also a reflection of infrastructure. Port expansions and improvements at ADM Windsor, Port of Oshawa, the new Picton terminals, the Port of Goderich, and the Port of Johnstown will only help grain movement. Exports are one thing and value-added domestic opportunities are another. The latter would be preferable and hopefully many new value-added projects are in the pipeline Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.26 over the March 2026 corn futures on Jan 16th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.05 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.10 to $3.55 over the March 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.91 to $3.11 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.61. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.57 bu. range. On January 16th the US replacement price for corn was $6.32/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The USDA hit us pretty hard with the big surprise hardly anybody expected. When you see the USDA final number on corn come in outside the various trade estimates it means almost everybody was surprised. Of course, the biggest surprises were the increase in yield and the much bigger corn harvested acreage increase. One might ask how does the USDA predict 4.5 million acres of corn harvested then they predicted last July? It’s fuel for the conspiracy theorists. It will likely be a few years before we truly understand what happened. However, one theory that is being reported is the good crop with good yields filled up bunker silos with silage earlier than normal. What happens when these silos are full, then the rest of the corn goes into the pipeline and shows up in harvested acreage. There was a 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres which would result in 200 million bushels of additional yield. The market simply was not expecting this. The USDA report was not particularly bearish on soybeans compared to corn. However, acreage was up slightly. Keep in mind that crush statistics are very good in the United States reflecting their commitment to biodiesel. For instance, the soybean crush is up approximately 285 million bushels over the last two years. There are commitments for an increased share of soybeans going to biodiesel. In 2025 this number was 3.3 billion gallons for biodiesel. The hope is to get it up to 5.5 billion gallons in 2026 and beyond. This blending credit equation is possibly being delayed by the supreme court considering the legality of tariffs. The blending credit is highly political and will be affected by the run up in the midterm elections. Commodity Specific Comments Corn 17.02 billion bushels of corn was a real wake up call for the corn market and it is hard to shake the big negativity. Keep in mind that old crop took the brunt of this and December corn held up relatively well. Last year December corn did not get above $4.80 a bushel and at the present time we’re hovering around $4.50 a bushel. It is splitting hairs but in a bearish environment that might be a positive. Keep in mind that the 2.2 billion bushel ending corn stocks created by such a big crop puts a cushion on any price increase for old crop corn. However, keep in mind there is lots of risk ahead. We still have to get through the Brazilian Safrinha crop as well as our new North American corn crop. We are always only one weather event away from a price increase. The world needs the corn as demand is so strong. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 7.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 9th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Believe it or not even with the slightly bearish tone in soybeans from the USDA report, prices are still in a yearly uptrend. The decrease in price since mid-October might have dialed in a lot of the bearishness of late. Keep in mind that the gorilla in the room China has already bought 12 MMTs of American soybeans and there is unlikely to be more. Trade wars might be easy to win but it’s pretty clear China is looking elsewhere for their soybeans. Who could blame them with Brazil set to produce another 178 MMTs soybean crop. This continues to weigh on soybean prices in both the short and long term. The March 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 11 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat Wheat is bearish but what else is new. In fact, with such a bearish USDA report you would think that maybe wheat would join in sending everything down. However, that did not happen in many ways the wheat complex shook off the bearish nature of the move in corn. Also too, the Chicago futures contract has holding above the $5.00 level when there are probably a few reasons to go lower. In many ways, you might say that the wheat prices have the negativity already priced in. Keep in mind and the last USDA report had wheat domestic stocks and global stocks raised. With Ontario wheat currently underneath, snow cover it is always hard to tell where we’re at. With the likely number around 1 million acres of wheat Ontario producers will be hoping for better prices. At the present time $6.57 for wheat off the combine this July doesn’t have a lot of people rushing to the sales trigger. However, we must remember that price is much better than we received last summer. As January grows older and February comes about, Ontario wheat producers will be hoping for better price prospects ahead. The Canadian dollar fluttering under $0.72 US continues to be a stimulus for cash prices. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar gained over 2 cents in December, and it looked like things might be improving. However, since then the Canadian dollar has settled again under $0.72 US which is adding stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. As per usual the Canadian dollar is usually valued as an inverse to the US dollar. However, at the present time gold and silver are surging almost as a hedge to the erratic behavior of the US dollar which is becoming a bit more volatile with some of the economic musings coming from the American administration. Will the Canadian dollar head into the $0.60 range or will it re-up and go back into the 80-cent range? It is also hard to tell but it will depend on how confident the currency traders are in Canada. That will have big implications for Ontario cash grain prices. Geopolitics have been boiling in the first part of January. What we saw was the removal of the President of Venezuela and an ongoing push by the American administration to take over Greenland. At the same time, we have the same Russia and Ukraine war going on. Grain is being traded just like oil is being traded and there is enough geopolitical instability just to raise uncertainty further. This instability will affect our grain futures prices as well as our currency markets. We have to be ready for this instability to affect grain prices. As January gets older keep in mind it is late summer in the southern hemisphere and those soybeans are growing well. There are some soybeans harvested in January in Brazil, but the main harvest will come along in February and March. This always holds out the possibility of a “weather market” affecting our grain futures prices. We need to be ready for that. It will likely happen. The January 12th USDA will continue to reverberate throughout the grain complex. Make no mistake, it was negative on so many fronts especially for corn prices. However, put it in the rear-view mirror, hopefully there will be better times ahead for prices and maybe the USDA will shock us to the upside someday. The challenge for Ontario grain farmers has to balance all of these marketing factors. There are futures prices and then there are cash prices and then there is that big job of balancing what makes sense in Canadian dollars. As we move ahead, our crop planning for this year will continue. With that, our risk management challenge will continue to ramp up. Daily market intelligence will be key to future marketing decisions. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we expose to four different seasons and there is a plethora of risk ahead. Cash prices for wheat at $6.50 per bushel do not offer Ontario wheat producers profitable opportunities when all things are considered. However, keep in mind and nothing ever stays the same especially when it comes to prices and market orders should be set to capture good wheat pricing opportunities over winter. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. A key driver in the Canadian dollar’s continuing trade relationship with the United States and as we all know that’s a pretty tough one. It is hard to know how that is all going to work out. At the same time the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.25% earlier which is bearish to neutral for the Canadian dollar. At a certain point the Canadian dollar is going to turn up, but of course it’s very difficult to know when. Needless to say, when it does turn up it will have a negative impact on Ontario cash grain prices. The challenge will be to continue to balance our foreign exchange concerns with grain futures prices. Our geopolitical world continues to churn. The Ukraine Russia war has dominated much of this concern over the last 3 1/2 years. It continues with almost daily reports of peace initiatives led by the Americans. The grain market especially for wheat and corn seems to have neutralized their trading algorithms with regard to the war. It seemingly doesn’t matter anymore. However, as always it is a big concern and hopefully in 2026 will come to an end. At the end of the day, if peace ever reaches that region agriculture production should increase substantially. As mentioned earlier, South American weather will remain top of mine for every producer whether they’re in Ontario, Iowa or in Mato Grosso Brazil. At the present time about 59% of Argentinian soybean planting has been completed according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. It is rated at 58% good to excellent. Meanwhile our Brazilian friends have 90% of their soybean crop planted. Yes, even though it’s cold outside watch for news regarding weather markets forming out of South America. As we careen into the new year there certainly will be many challenges for those of us on the farm. One constant that we will always have is building our marketing plan to manage all the risks that we have looking forward. 2026 will be no different. There is a record crop behind us, and there is a record crop in front of us. However, demand is growing, and you never know when some butterfly will be causing chaos somewhere. Sometimes the best laid plans don’t happen, and markets start to gyrate. Yes, even in 2026 risk management will not grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same […] The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout […] The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September […] The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but pod set in soybeans can be the real deal in August.  […] The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often impact the bigger crop in the field which also impacts prices. […] The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn belt which may or may not impact what has been to […] The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It's not the home stretch but we're getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much… The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It is full speed ahead. It is that time of year when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. In fact, good weather has made for great progress that may ultimately lead two bin busting crops. As… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt.  Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Early April is often the time when corn planters get pulled out of the shop ready to go to the field. It is also a time of optimism spurned on by the… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report March 31, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Spring always represents a time of hope for North American farmers as we get ready to go to the fields to plant another crop. There certainly will be much anticipation this year… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is February and for the most part the greater North American corn belt is frozen with snow and ice infiltrating almost everywhere. It is a time when not much is happening in the production fields as people look… The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     2025 dawned with farmers hoping for better markets. 2024 was a year where prices retreated almost every month until harvest time.  Since then, there's been a bit of a bounce back but there is a long way to go. … The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is the end of the calendar year and what a year it is been. We have seen record crops coming out of the United States and big crops growing in the fields of South America. This is all… The post Market Trends Report – December & January 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a beautiful harvest season across the greater North American corn belt. As of November, the 12th 95% of US corn had been harvested and 96% of American soybeans.  In both of these cases it is ahead… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again when you can almost hear the noise from the fields.  Combines are rolling across the great North American corn belt. At the same time planters are rolling in Brazil attempting to put… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again across the great North American corn belt. It is early but harvest is starting almost everywhere. In the United States USDA has estimated as of September 8th 5% of the American corn… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year when the crop is made. In other words, we got the crop planted and we got through the “hot and dry” timeline and now we're in the middle of August heading towards September. … The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Late July and going into early August represents a time when the crop is being made. The July pollination time period is usually one of the critical times for corn in the… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     It is that time of year again. The Canada Day-July 4th weekend always is a seminal moment in markets across the greater American corn belt. It is the time of year when we are able to start measuring the… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 1, 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Planters have been rolling across the Great North American corn belt over the last several weeks.  Getting off to a good start is always a good thing and it certainly is the case in the United States this year. … The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again, planters are rolling across the great North American corn belt.  As of May, the 5th 36% of American corn had been planted which is 6 percentage points behind last year and three… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year. Across the Great North American corn belt farmers are in the fields or at least getting ready to plant their crops when the weather cooperates. What was a very mild winter has turned… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      The end of March always represents a central time in grain markets as USDA gives their official estimates of the acres which will be planted in the upcoming year. At the same time of course farmers across the great… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 1, 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     It is almost like last fall has never left.   Across Canada it was the warmest winter on record with temperatures averaging 5° warmer than normal. Of course, with some of these March days feeling a bit warmer even more… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World    February is a time when the Great North American corn belt is usually under a lot of snow and ice. It is the time where great looking crops are a bit far in the distance. However, this year the… The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and World      It's that time of the year again. January represents a time of cold, snow, ice, etc., etc. as the great North America corn belt hibernates over winter. Farm plans are being recalibrated and past cropping results reviewed.  Meanwhile, marketing never… The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Personal Note:  It is with a heavy heart I write this.  Earlier in December I learned of the passing of Kim Ratz, who worked at Grain Farmers of Ontario for the last 13 years and 5 years with the Ontario Corn Producers Association before… The post Market Trends Report – December & January 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Harvest is in full swing across the great American corn belt; progress varying depending on where you are.  In fact, it is over in many places. As of November, the 6th 81% of US corn harvest has been completed… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2023  appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year and combines continue to roll across the great American corn belt.  As of October, the 8th, 43% of American soybeans had been harvested and 34% of US corn has been harvested.  Dry weather… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is September and soon we will hear the rumble and roll of combines harvesting soybeans.  Across the greater North American corn belt there has been a plethora of different weather conditions this past growing season. Some areas of… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been uneven summer in much of the greater North American corn belt as different weather patterns have presented challenges for crops in the field. Earlier there was drought and very dry weather in much of the corn… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is a very crucial time for grain production across the greater North American corn belt. Mid to late July is very important for pollination in the corn crop and soybeans are setting up for their pod filling time… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been an eventful last few weeks across the Great North American corn belt. What was a tremendous stretch of good planting weather with warm and dry conditions suddenly morphed into something much more troubling as these same… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report June 30, 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       Warm and dry conditions with the added component of smoke have inundated parts of the American corn belt over the last few weeks. In fact, increased drought conditions are making farmers nervous across this region as crops need rain… The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again, where planters are rolling across the great North American grain belt. As of May the 7th about half of the American corn crop was planted and 35% of the American soybeans had… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       Here we are, the end of April and for a large part of the corn belt we're off to the races. It's either go time for planting or it's about to be go time as farmers across the great… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2023  appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      The shed doors are open, the sun is starting to warm things up and farmers across the Great North American corn belt are getting ready to plant. It is that time of year where everything is possible in our… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 2, 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and World      Mid-March is a time of re calibrating and planning for many North American corn belt farmers. There is still snow on the ground in many places and cold weather is having its impact hanging on more than we want. However,… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      With almost half of February behind us it will soon be time to blow the dust off the corn planters.  Having said that, there is still at least about five weeks of winter left if we believe the Groundhog. … The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are in a new calendar year and a new set of possibilities and opportunities for grain farmers across Ontario and the greater North American corn belt.  The winter of 2023 has been somewhat benign in many parts… The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      As the days of 2022 grow short, farmers are able to truly measure how well this year went and continue to make plans for a successful 2023.  In the United States the crop was a good one, but it… The post Market Trends Report – December 2022 & January 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       We are in the homestretch toward the end of the year.  Across the greater American corn belt combines have been rolling over the last month in the great race to finish harvest.  As of November, the 7th 87% of… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again when combines roll into the night as harvest is taking place across the great North American corn belt. It has been an uneven growing in some areas with pockets of dryness evident… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.