GrainTALK

US and the World The changeover in the calendar year always represents a shifting of the gears in our grain marketing outlook. At least in North America it seems that way with winter settling in with most of the crops in the bin. At the same time in South America, it is the middle of their summer. This means that all of the marketing factors with regard to crop weather are weighing into the price discovery equation. Needless to say, the mechanics of markets go on whether you change gears or not. It has been an incredibly good growing season this past year in North America. On December the 9th the USDA weighed in with their latest WASDE report. The December USDA report is usually a non-starter wedged between harvest in the United States and the January report which is usually much bigger from a market standpoint. This December report reflected not only that but also the slow regeneration of numbers coming out of the US government shutdown. The biggest change from the December report was reflected in the corn export number which was increased 125 million bushels from last month up to 3.2 billion bushels which is record territory. This brought down the corn ending stocks for 2025/2026 to 2.029 billion bushels down that 125 million bushels from last month. Everything else remained the same including the 16.752 billion bushels of corn production from this year. The soybean numbers remained the same from last month with US production at 4.253 billion bushels with a yield of 53 bushels per acre. Soybean exports at 1.635 billion bushels was unchanged from November. Brazilian production remained at 175 MMTs and in Argentina at 48.5 MMTs. The wheat numbers were also the same except for world ending stocks were actually increased this month to 274.87 MMTs, up from 271.43 MMTs in November. On Dec 12th corn and wheat futures were higher than the last Market Trends report. Soybeans were lower. March 2026 corn futures was at $4.40 a bushel. Dec 2026 corn was at $4.62 bu. The January 2026 soybean futures was at $10.76 bu. The November 2026 soybean futures were at $10.88. The March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.29 a bushel. The Minneapolis March 2026 wheat futures closed at $5.75 a bushel with the September 2026 contract closing at $6.12 a bushel. The nearby oil futures as of December 12th closed at $57.44/barrel lower vs the nearby futures recorded in the last Market Trends report of $60.09/barrel. The average price for US ethanol in the US was $2.04/gallon, down vs the $2.12/gallon recorded in the last Market Trends Report. The Canadian dollar noon rate on December 12th, 2025, was .7263 US, up vs the .7130 US reported here in the last Market Trends report. The Bank of Canada’s lending rate was reduced to 2.25%. Ontario Corn harvest is continuing in Ontario. As of December 13th, there is still a significant amount of Ontario corn still left in the field. Let’s estimate that at about 20 to 25%. We got here because of heavy snow that came early in December and looks to be staying as the month wore on. Much of this snow and cold temperatures is preventing any significant harvest progress in areas where it is apparent. Some of this Ontario corn we’ll be waiting till spring to be harvested. Production estimates vary but it looks like we’re looking at winter wheat acreage this past fall in a range between 1.046 million acres and 1.18 million acres. This is significant especially when you consider the low prices of wheat. It would seem that Ontario producers always need a good fall weather forecast to get wheat planted and 2025 was good. For many of those wheat acres they’re under a blanket of snow now even in the deep south west of the province. Ontario basis levels for corn has hardly moved from the last Market Trends report. The Canadian dollar has been fluttering within the $0.71 range during this time currently at.7263 US. There also is the spectre of crop still in the field in some parts of Ontario as well as uneven supply in others. Corn yields in Ontario overall are likely down from last year even with the huge yields in the deep south west of Ontario. The soybean basis has increased slightly from last month partly reflecting the moves in the Canadian dollar. Old crop corn basis levels are $1.35 to $2.12 over the March 2026 corn futures on Dec 12th across the province. New crop corn basis levels were $1.15 to $1.45 over Dec 2026 futures. The old crop basis levels for soybeans range from $3.18 to $3.50 over the January 2026 futures. New crop soybeans range from $2.87 to $3.13 over the November 2026 futures. Ontario SRW wheat prices are approximately $6.49. For July 2026 new crop the bid is in the $6.56 bu. range. On December 12th the US replacement price for corn was $6.49/bushel. You can access all these Ontario grain prices in the marketing section at https://gfo.ca/marketing/daily-commodity-report/ The Bottom Line The December 9th USDA report can only be considered neutral for price action as of early December. At the same time that this was happening we did see the price of soybeans start dropping rather significantly into the report and it is continued into mid-December. Part of this is the realization that China is not going to come to the rescue as well as good South American weather and a record South American crop on its way once again. Earlier the Chinese had agreed to buy 12 MMTs of soybeans from the United States. This came out of the presidential meetings between President Trump and President Xi. This is happening with small purchases of US soybeans amounting to about half of that as of now. That commitment should be fulfilled by the end of February even when South American soybeans are cheaper. In reality, there’s really no reason for China to buy anymore American soybeans especially in the political climate we have today. That is, of course as long as the South American crop does not get in trouble. The US government shutdown was significant for market action in November going into December. For the week ending November 22nd fund buying was off the chart for both corn and soybeans and much of this had to do with the vacuum of USDA information. In fact, USDA number since then have not supported this fund buying and this is partly why we’ve seen the funds exciting their longs over the last week from December the 12th. Clearly, these things can happen when USDA information is dialed into algorithms. As we move ahead, we might expect these algorithms to retrench based on more bearish USDA information. Of course, there are all kinds of issues that affect market price but at the end of the day a weather market is the thing that it usually comes down to. At the present time soybean futures do represent many things but they also represent the good crop weather in South America. As we all know USDA’s predicted record crops for Brazil this year and it’s happening as we speak. Lately South American weather has been bulletproofed, we will see if that continues. Commodity Specific Comments Corn Corn has been somewhat of a star among the agricultural commodities all year. That’s because we had the biggest record crop in the field by a country mile and futures prices did not fall apart, in fact they are higher than last year. USDA even increased corn demand by 125 million bushels in their last report. However, the January report could be confession time for corn. Is the crop really that big? Will the USDA continue to change the number of planted acres and harvested acres which will be reflected in production? It’s also hard to say at this point but as we look into the January 12th, 2026, report, those marketing variables have to be kept in mind. The March 2026 corn contract is currently priced at 8.25 cents lower than the March 2026 contract a neutral indication of old crop corn demand. This spread has been cut in half from last month. Seasonally, we know that corn prices tend to peak in early June and bottom out in early October. The March 2026 corn futures contract is at the 13th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Soybeans Soybeans have lost about a dollar a bushel since mid-October. There was a mysterious pent-up demand for Chinese buying which of course never really happened in any big way. The funds have also exited soybeans over the last few weeks, and we know there’s a big Brazilian crop down south. There is some thought that the USDA will reduce the soybean national yield in the January report. In fact, some of this conjecture has been up to two bushels per acre which could carve off about 160 million bushels over the ending stocks figure. This would put soybean ending stocks at a very low level setting up the spectre for some fireworks ahead. The bulls can only hope. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently priced 10 cents below the March contract considered neutral for soybean demand. Seasonally, soybean prices tend to peak in early July and bottom out in early October. The January 2026 soybean contract is currently at the 16th percentile of the past five-year price distribution range. Wheat The December WASDE report did document an increase in world wheat production as well as an increase in world wheat stocks. In addition to this, last week the Rosario exchange forecasted that the Argentinian wheat crop was increased by another 3 MMTS. It is an old story about the wheat supply always filling the gaps and that’s exactly what we have now. Any major wheat exporter has to have problems for us to see a major increase in the price of wheat and at the present time we are in a bumper situation. There is wheat seemingly everywhere in good supply. In Ontario the 1.046 million acres to 1.18 million acres now safely under snow which should help it get to the starting gate in April. However, as usual wheat is the only crop that we expose to four different seasons and there is a plethora of risk ahead. Cash prices for wheat at $6.50 per bushel do not offer Ontario wheat producers profitable opportunities when all things are considered. However, keep in mind and nothing ever stays the same especially when it comes to prices and market orders should be set to capture good wheat pricing opportunities over winter. The Bottom Line (cont.) The Canadian dollar continues to add stimulus to Ontario cash grain prices. A key driver in the Canadian dollar’s continuing trade relationship with the United States and as we all know that’s a pretty tough one. It is hard to know how that is all going to work out. At the same time the Bank of Canada kept interest rates at 2.25% earlier which is bearish to neutral for the Canadian dollar. At a certain point the Canadian dollar is going to turn up, but of course it’s very difficult to know when. Needless to say, when it does turn up it will have a negative impact on Ontario cash grain prices. The challenge will be to continue to balance our foreign exchange concerns with grain futures prices. Our geopolitical world continues to churn. The Ukraine Russia war has dominated much of this concern over the last 3 1/2 years. It continues with almost daily reports of peace initiatives led by the Americans. The grain market especially for wheat and corn seems to have neutralized their trading algorithms with regard to the war. It seemingly doesn’t matter anymore. However, as always it is a big concern and hopefully in 2026 will come to an end. At the end of the day, if peace ever reaches that region agriculture production should increase substantially. As mentioned earlier, South American weather will remain top of mine for every producer whether they’re in Ontario, Iowa or in Mato Grosso Brazil. At the present time about 59% of Argentinian soybean planting has been completed according to the Buenos Aires grain exchange. It is rated at 58% good to excellent. Meanwhile our Brazilian friends have 90% of their soybean crop planted. Yes, even though it’s cold outside watch for news regarding weather markets forming out of South America. As we careen into the new year there certainly will be many challenges for those of us on the farm. One constant that we will always have is building our marketing plan to manage all the risks that we have looking forward. 2026 will be no different. There is a record crop behind us, and there is a record crop in front of us. However, demand is growing, and you never know when some butterfly will be causing chaos somewhere. Sometimes the best laid plans don’t happen, and markets start to gyrate. Yes, even in 2026 risk management will not grow old. Daily market intelligence will remain key. There will be many marketing opportunities ahead. The post Market Trends Report – December 2025 & January 2026 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It is that time of year when farmers reach the proverbial finish line, of getting that crop in the bin. The harvest of 2025 has been abundant, and it is also taking place in a very timely fashion with very good weather across the North American corn belt. At the same […] The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It has been for the most part a wide-open harvest season across the greater American corn belt. This is not only been reflected in the American Midwest but right across Ontario. Harvest has moved quickly and as we are into mid-October corn harvest is ramping up or in full swing throughout […] The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater American corn belt. As we headed into the end of September […] The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a big production year with good planting weather turning into a good summer and record yields predicted. However, as summer turned late the tap turned off and it was very dry across much of the greater… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but pod set in soybeans can be the real deal in August.  […] The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are it is the middle of August and in most years the crop is made. At this time of year much of the crop defining weather is behind us. Corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror but… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often impact the bigger crop in the field which also impacts prices. […] The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      July and August are very significant months for crop development within North America. It represents a time when pollination takes place in the corn crop and pod set takes place in soybeans. Adverse weather during this time can often… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn belt which may or may not impact what has been to […] The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       It is that time of year again. The July 4th weekend always represents a critical moment in the market year where prices can go one way or the other. Summer heat is ramping up across the greater American corn… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 7, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It's not the home stretch but we're getting closer. The end of June going into July is always a critical period for crop development.  It can also be a gyrating time for grain markets as there is so much… The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World It is full speed ahead. It is that time of year when planters are rolling across the Great North American corn belt. In fact, good weather has made for great progress that may ultimately lead two bin busting crops. As… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      April and May are always a busy month on the farm whether that be in Ontario or in the greater North American corn belt.  Planters are rolling and auto steer buttons are being pressed as weather is improving and… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Early April is often the time when corn planters get pulled out of the shop ready to go to the field. It is also a time of optimism spurned on by the… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report March 31, 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Spring always represents a time of hope for North American farmers as we get ready to go to the fields to plant another crop. There certainly will be much anticipation this year… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is February and for the most part the greater North American corn belt is frozen with snow and ice infiltrating almost everywhere. It is a time when not much is happening in the production fields as people look… The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     2025 dawned with farmers hoping for better markets. 2024 was a year where prices retreated almost every month until harvest time.  Since then, there's been a bit of a bounce back but there is a long way to go. … The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is the end of the calendar year and what a year it is been. We have seen record crops coming out of the United States and big crops growing in the fields of South America. This is all… The post Market Trends Report – December & January 2025 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been a beautiful harvest season across the greater North American corn belt. As of November, the 12th 95% of US corn had been harvested and 96% of American soybeans.  In both of these cases it is ahead… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again when you can almost hear the noise from the fields.  Combines are rolling across the great North American corn belt. At the same time planters are rolling in Brazil attempting to put… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again across the great North American corn belt. It is early but harvest is starting almost everywhere. In the United States USDA has estimated as of September 8th 5% of the American corn… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year when the crop is made. In other words, we got the crop planted and we got through the “hot and dry” timeline and now we're in the middle of August heading towards September. … The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Late July and going into early August represents a time when the crop is being made. The July pollination time period is usually one of the critical times for corn in the… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     It is that time of year again. The Canada Day-July 4th weekend always is a seminal moment in markets across the greater American corn belt. It is the time of year when we are able to start measuring the… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report July 1, 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Planters have been rolling across the Great North American corn belt over the last several weeks.  Getting off to a good start is always a good thing and it certainly is the case in the United States this year. … The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again, planters are rolling across the great North American corn belt.  As of May, the 5th 36% of American corn had been planted which is 6 percentage points behind last year and three… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year. Across the Great North American corn belt farmers are in the fields or at least getting ready to plant their crops when the weather cooperates. What was a very mild winter has turned… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      The end of March always represents a central time in grain markets as USDA gives their official estimates of the acres which will be planted in the upcoming year. At the same time of course farmers across the great… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 1, 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World     It is almost like last fall has never left.   Across Canada it was the warmest winter on record with temperatures averaging 5° warmer than normal. Of course, with some of these March days feeling a bit warmer even more… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World    February is a time when the Great North American corn belt is usually under a lot of snow and ice. It is the time where great looking crops are a bit far in the distance. However, this year the… The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and World      It's that time of the year again. January represents a time of cold, snow, ice, etc., etc. as the great North America corn belt hibernates over winter. Farm plans are being recalibrated and past cropping results reviewed.  Meanwhile, marketing never… The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

Personal Note:  It is with a heavy heart I write this.  Earlier in December I learned of the passing of Kim Ratz, who worked at Grain Farmers of Ontario for the last 13 years and 5 years with the Ontario Corn Producers Association before… The post Market Trends Report – December & January 2024 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Harvest is in full swing across the great American corn belt; progress varying depending on where you are.  In fact, it is over in many places. As of November, the 6th 81% of US corn harvest has been completed… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2023  appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year and combines continue to roll across the great American corn belt.  As of October, the 8th, 43% of American soybeans had been harvested and 34% of US corn has been harvested.  Dry weather… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is September and soon we will hear the rumble and roll of combines harvesting soybeans.  Across the greater North American corn belt there has been a plethora of different weather conditions this past growing season. Some areas of… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been uneven summer in much of the greater North American corn belt as different weather patterns have presented challenges for crops in the field. Earlier there was drought and very dry weather in much of the corn… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is a very crucial time for grain production across the greater North American corn belt. Mid to late July is very important for pollination in the corn crop and soybeans are setting up for their pod filling time… The post Market Trends Report – July & August 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It has been an eventful last few weeks across the Great North American corn belt. What was a tremendous stretch of good planting weather with warm and dry conditions suddenly morphed into something much more troubling as these same… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report June 30, 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       Warm and dry conditions with the added component of smoke have inundated parts of the American corn belt over the last few weeks. In fact, increased drought conditions are making farmers nervous across this region as crops need rain… The post Market Trends Report – June & July 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again, where planters are rolling across the great North American grain belt. As of May the 7th about half of the American corn crop was planted and 35% of the American soybeans had… The post Market Trends Report – May & June 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       Here we are, the end of April and for a large part of the corn belt we're off to the races. It's either go time for planting or it's about to be go time as farmers across the great… The post Market Trends Report – April & May 2023  appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      The shed doors are open, the sun is starting to warm things up and farmers across the Great North American corn belt are getting ready to plant. It is that time of year where everything is possible in our… The post Special Edition – Market Trends Report – USDA Report April 2, 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and World      Mid-March is a time of re calibrating and planning for many North American corn belt farmers. There is still snow on the ground in many places and cold weather is having its impact hanging on more than we want. However,… The post Market Trends Report – March & April 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      With almost half of February behind us it will soon be time to blow the dust off the corn planters.  Having said that, there is still at least about five weeks of winter left if we believe the Groundhog. … The post Market Trends Report – February & March 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      Here we are in a new calendar year and a new set of possibilities and opportunities for grain farmers across Ontario and the greater North American corn belt.  The winter of 2023 has been somewhat benign in many parts… The post Market Trends Report – January & February 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      As the days of 2022 grow short, farmers are able to truly measure how well this year went and continue to make plans for a successful 2023.  In the United States the crop was a good one, but it… The post Market Trends Report – December 2022 & January 2023 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World       We are in the homestretch toward the end of the year.  Across the greater American corn belt combines have been rolling over the last month in the great race to finish harvest.  As of November, the 7th 87% of… The post Market Trends Report – November & December 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again when combines roll into the night as harvest is taking place across the great North American corn belt. It has been an uneven growing in some areas with pockets of dryness evident… The post Market Trends Report – October & November 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year again. Combines are rolling or starting to roll across the Great American corn belt.  It has been a good growing season, but with caveats almost everywhere.  Generally speaking, the western corn belt has… The post Market Trends Report – September & October 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.

US and the World      It is that time of year when many people think the crop is made. For the most part in the United States corn pollination is in the rear-view mirror and August weather becomes a focal point for the soybean… The post Market Trends Report – August & September 2022 appeared first on Grain Farmers of Ontario.