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From chocolate and sugar prices to energy markets and inflation, El Niño's impacts may soon reach far beyond the weather forecast. Our Latin America Agribusiness Analyst Julia Rizzo maps out where the pressure could emerge first.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Julia Rizzo, Latin America Agribusiness Analyst at Morgan Stanley. Today: how El Niño could move from the Pacific into commodity markets, grocery prices, and investor portfolios. It's Wednesday, August 19th, at 10am in Sao Paulo.You may not follow rainfall patterns in Brazil or cocoa-growing conditions in West Africa. But you immediately notice when chocolate, groceries, or electricity cost more. And you can connect the dots to El Niño -- a warming cycle in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts weather globally. It changes where rain falls and shapes the outlook for crops, power markets, transportation, and inflation. There is now a 95 percent chance of a very strong El Niño in the fourth quarter of 2026. It could end up being among the most powerful events in more than 75 years of recorded history. Timing and location matter greatly. Crop damage often depends on whether heat or heavy rain arrives during a narrow planting, flowering, or harvest window. The most direct effects are likely to appear first in commodities. Sugar is on the list of commodities most exposed to favorable price dynamics from weather conditions. Cocoa also looks tight. Grains are more complicated. Soybeans need evidence of a net South American production loss. Problems in northern Brazil may be offset by stronger crops in Argentina or Brazil south. Corn is even more dependent on timing. The key near-term catalyst remains U.S. weather and crops. What happens next matters well beyond agricultural markets. Food is the main channel through which El Niño reaches the broader economy, and the effect usually appears after a one-year lag. That makes inflation primarily a 2027 story. In Latin America, the largest incremental inflation risks are concentrated in Peru, Brazil, and Colombia, with most of the pressure arriving in 2027. That matters for central banks. Weather shocks can fade. So, policymakers often look through an initial rise in food prices. The greater concern is that higher food costs may begin to influence inflation expectations, wages, rents, or other prices across the economy. Colombia stands out as the clearest case where those second-round effects could complicate monetary policy. India and Indonesia also face meaningful economic exposure. Agriculture accounts for a large share of output and employment in these countries. India is especially sensitive. Agriculture represents about 18 percent of the GDP, 43 to 45 [percent] of jobs, while food makes up roughly 36 percent of the consumer price basket. Record food reserves may provide some protection, though a poor growing season could still weigh on rural incomes and keep food inflation elevated. The economic consequences will vary widely. Higher agricultural prices can support farmer income and benefit some parts of the food and agricultural supply chain. They can also raise costs for households, food producers, and businesses that depend on grains and sugar. Utilities may benefit in markets where hotter or drier conditions lift electricity prices, while heavy rainfall could disrupt transport routes and airports in those exposed regions. Historical asset-price signals are limited, so this is less of a broad macro trade than a detailed assessment of local exposure. Rainfall, crop timing, inventories, and the ability to pass higher costs on to consumers will determine where the pressure lands. El Niño may begin in the Pacific, but its market footprint can travel from cocoa farms in West Africa to a grocery aisle, a power grid, or a central bank meeting. Thanks for listening. If you enjoy the show, please leave us a review and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or colleague today.
The grain markets seem to wake up to the damage that Russia and Ukraine are doing to ports, and the global grain supply. Weather concerns both for the US and across Europe are also leading to questions about the amount of grain available down the road. Cattle could be looking towards further pressure in a market facing many challenges. Sue Martin with Ag & Investment Services recaps today's trade.
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Australia is home to around 20,000 flowering plants. But when did the first flowers emerge? Vera Korasidis at the University of Melbourne is a palynologist — a palaeontologist specialising in pollen and spores. She analyses ancient pollen and says the oldest-known pollen has been dated to 125 million years. Pollen grains are coated with an extremely hardy compound allowing them to be preserved in rocks for millions of years.
Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle are lower with the Tyson plant closure news, hogs follow. Grains are working on higher weekly closes.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Wheat under pressure from rumor of Ukraine/Russia moratorium; today wheat strongly higher as Ukraine hits key Russian grain export terminals; Black Sea grain exports rapidly declining; Supply/Demand report today hints at a volatile price reaction; cattle futures mixed; cash fed steady; boxed beef quietly lower on good volume; cash feeders lower; weekly cash cattle and beef summary.
Ukrainian attacks on Russia's largest grain exporting facilities rallied grains overnight into Wednesday's session. The latest USDA yield projections were slightly lower than anticipated for corn and soybeans. Acreage was increased in today's WASDE for corn and soybeans, with around 2 million additional acres, combined. Arlan Suderman with Stone X Financial recaps today's trade.
In today's show, Mark visits with Mike Witt of Wyffels Hybrids, Riley learns about SkyScout crop scouting technology with Dan Bjorklund of Landus Cooperative, and Dustin talks with new U.S. Grains & Bio Products Chair Jay Reiners.
You've probably heard both sides of this argument: that organic and conventional produce are nutritionally identical, and that homegrown vegetables blow store-bought out of the water. Which one is true? In this episode, I dig through the peer-reviewed research on three separate questions: whether organic farming produces more nutritious food, whether soil health itself changes the nutrient content of what we eat, and what happens to those nutrients in the days between harvest and the moment food lands on your plate. I'm treating this as a real meta-analysis, pulling together findings from major systematic reviews, long-term field trials, and postharvest storage studies, and following the data wherever it leads. The answer is more interesting, and more useful for your own garden, than either side of the argument usually admits. By the end, you'll know exactly which parts of the nutrient-density conversation hold up under scrutiny and which parts are oversimplified, plus what it means for the food coming out of your own backyard. Let's dig in! Get your bag of Larry's Coffee and a free gift from their fair-trade partners at https://LarrysCoffee.com/JustGrow Peer-Reviewed Sources Smith-Spangler et al. (2012), Annals of Internal Medicine — Are Organic Foods Safer or Healthier Than Conventional Alternatives?: https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/0003-4819-157-5-201209040-00007 Baranski et al. (2014), British Journal of Nutrition — Higher Antioxidant and Lower Cadmium Concentrations in Organically Grown Crops (343-study meta-analysis): https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4141693/ Worthington (2001), Journal of Alternative and Complementary Medicine — Nutritional Quality of Organic Versus Conventional Fruits, Vegetables, and Grains: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/11327522/ Hunter et al. (2011), Critical Reviews in Food Science and Nutrition — Evaluation of the Micronutrient Composition of Plant Foods Produced by Organic and Conventional Methods: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/21929333/ Montgomery & Biklé (2021), Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems — Soil Health and Nutrient Density: Beyond Organic vs. Conventional Farming: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems/articles/10.3389/fsufs.2021.699147/full Lehmann et al. (2014), Soil Biology and Biochemistry — Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Influence on Zinc Nutrition in Crop Plants: A Meta-Analysis: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038071713004045 Reganold et al. (2010), PLOS ONE — Fruit and Soil Quality of Organic and Conventional Strawberry Agroecosystems: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0012346 Helfenstein et al. (2016), PLOS ONE — Organic Wheat Farming Improves Grain Zinc Concentration: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0160729 Hepperly, Omondi & Seidel (2018), MOJ Food Processing & Technology — Soil Regeneration Increases Crop Nutrients, Antioxidants and Adaptive Responses (Rodale Institute Farming Systems Trial): https://medcraveonline.com/MOJFPT/soil-regeneration-increases-crop-nutrients-antioxidants-and-adaptive-responses.html Davis, Epp & Riordan (2004), Journal of the American College of Nutrition — Changes in USDA Food Composition Data for 43 Garden Crops, 1950 to 1999: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15637215/ Marles (2017), Journal of Food Composition and Analysis — Mineral Nutrient Composition of Vegetables, Fruits and Grains: The Context of Reports of Apparent Historical Declines: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889157516302113 Favell (1998), Food Chemistry — A Comparison of the Vitamin C Content of Fresh and Frozen Vegetables: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0308814697001659 Rickman, Barrett & Bruhn (2007), Journal of the Science of Food and Agriculture — Nutritional Comparison of Fresh, Frozen and Canned Fruits and Vegetables, Part 1: https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/jsfa.2825 Li, Pegg, Eitenmiller, Chun & Kerrihard (2017), Journal of Food Composition and Analysis — Selected Nutrient Analyses of Fresh, Fresh-Stored, and Frozen Fruits and Vegetables: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0889157517300418 Galani et al. (2017), Antioxidants — Storage of Fruits and Vegetables in Refrigerator Increases Their Phenolic Acids but Decreases the Total Phenolics, Anthocyanins and Vitamin C: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5618087/ Jo, Shin & Lee (2003), Journal of Agricultural and Food Chemistry — The Effect of Post-Harvest and Packaging Treatments on Glucoraphanin Concentration in Broccoli: https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/jf0203592 Just Grow Something: https://justgrowsomething.com Gardening Courses: https://justgrowsomething.com/courses Just Grow Something Merch and Downloads: https://justgrowsomething.com/shop Just Grow Something Gardening Friends Facebook Group: https://www.facebook.com/share/g/18YgHveF5P/ Check out how you can become a patron on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/JustGrowSomething Feed my coffee habit: https://buymeacoffee.com/justgrowsomething Amazon storefront: https://www.amazon.com/shop/justgrowsomething Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Grains trading mixed, waiting for major Supply/Demand report tomorrow; Black Sea maritime transport update; crop condition and progress update; cattle futures mixed; cash steady; choice boxed beef surges higher; cash feeders lower.
We saw grains weaken ahead of WASDE, wheat pressured by Black Sea ceasefire rumors, cattle mixed, crude higher, and metals diverge into Tuesday midday trade.
Wheat leading grains higher; markets waiting for Wednesday's Supply/Demand report; Black Sea exports largely halted; cattle futures follow cash higher; boxed beef firm while cash feeders push higher.
Grains mixed as wheat struggles against cheap Black Sea offers; export sales summary; cattle futures weaker; cash cattle firm; boxed beef mixed; cash feeders stronger.
BEEF: I'm going to start with the weekly beef harvest. Last week's total was 512K head; the prior week was 528K head. I don't recall this small a weekly harvest on a non-holiday week. Packers will continue to try and tighten availability to support pricing. They are having some success as Ribeyes and tenderloins are moving higher heading to Labor Day. Overall, though prices are moving lower, we should see some appreciation as we get closer to Labor Day. Grinds and rounds are moving lower; thin meats are mixed as briskets have new support while flanks and sirloin flap continue to decline. I think we've got a week, maybe two, before we see this market move higher again. Stay ahead of your needs; product will be tight, but better values will be available. POULTRY: Chicken market is back to moving a bit higher. Up with Boneless skinless random breast and wings. Tenders still showing some weakness, moving a few pennies lower. This year's robust chicken production growth is expected to cool off heading into fall, so this market could turn higher, but I'm not seeing anything yet. On the avian flu report, another week, no new cases, and we will take that win every time. GRAINS: Grains continue to decline from the surge we saw two weeks ago. Corn closed at $4.51, down from last week's $4.69; soy at $11.53, down from last week's $11.71, and wheat closed at $6.07, down from last week's $6.30. We are in the height of the growing season for corn and soy, and we do have some drought in parts of the country to deal with, but that is mostly west of the prime growing areas. Still looks like another big crop year. PORK: Pork bellies, they moved higher again this week, today's close $164 up from last week's $159. I do think we are about at the top of this market, just looking to see when we'll start moving lower. Right now, I'd buy just what I need. Pork loins are up a nickel, ribs and butts holding steady. Once we get past Labor Day, I do expect some declines. DAIRY: Thursday's CME close saw both barrel and block decline 2 while butter recovers from the recent declines up 6. We have plenty of raw material for dairy, so I don't expect too much from this recent run. Savalfoods.com | Find us on Social Media: Instagram, Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, LinkedIn
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.
Grains futures mixed on improving weather; wheat and corn importers avoiding Black Sea sourcing; private yield estimates coming in for corn and beans; Supply/Demand next Wednesday expected to create volatility; cattle futures and cash higher; boxed beef mixed on light volume; cash feeders lower.
Bearish weather keeps row crops underpinned. Wheat trade hasn't yet considered the global supply issues resulting from war broken logistics in the Black Sea. Cattle futures fell with profit taking and some weather factors as well. Mike Zuzulo with Global Commodity Analytics recaps today's trade.
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Grain complex retreats on weaker energies; yield estimates starting to come in; EU drought impact estimates; despite shipping woes, Black Sea wheat FOB still the lowest; weather improves for Midwest crops; cattle futures higher with stronger cash; boxed beef and cash feeders stronger as well.
We see wheat rallying on Black Sea export concerns while corn and soybeans soften under high yield estimates, improving rain forecasts, and seasonal pressure today.
Grains reversed higher, led by wheat on further damage to Black Sea export capacity; corn conditions decline while soybeans were steady; China buys more US soybeans; cattle futures reverse lower; cash steady/higher; boxed beef mixed while cash feeders improve.
We saw grains fall as crude oil plunged, rains eased crop concerns, cattle rallied, and export demand reinforced tighter corn carryout outlook ahead of WASDE.
Grains continue to slide on improving weather; China buys 1 MMT US soybeans; Russia takes out key Ukrainian railroad bridge; EU drought moves east; cattle futures stabilizing on higher cash; boxed beef and cash feeders higher.
European crop conditions and continued war concerns leave a big question in global grain supply. Crop conditions this afternoon are anticipated to show a slip in good to excellent ratings. Soybeans feel pressure from weather improvement, despite business from China. Jeff Peterson with Heartland Farm Partners recaps today's trade.
This week's Open Mic guest is Ryan LeGrand, President and CEO of the U.S. Grains and BioProducts Council. Following a membership meeting last week LeGrand discusses the global balance sheet for grains trading and how geopolitical events are impacting global markets. LeGrand says European weather conditions may limit grain volumes in that region and says future weather events in Brazil may also impact global grain supplies. He discusses increased potential for corn-based ethanol sales and says fuel for the maritime industry could be a boon for row crop demand.
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Wheat sheds strong gains to close only slightly higher; corn and beans sluggish on improving weather; solid export sales; Drought Monitor shows expanding dryness; Black Sea shipping grinding to a halt; cattle futures close higher while cash trades slightly lower for the week; boxed beef lower; solid export sales.
Mike Minor and Lucas Peters discuss the annual crop tour and more in this week's episode.
To round out the week and the month of July, traders squared up positions and braced for a potentially busy headline weekend. The global grain supply remains a bit of a mystery as Europe's crops continue to decline from drought and war rages on in the Black Sea. Cattle held their recovery, giving some hope that the market may have seen a bottom for now. Mike Castle with Stone X Financial recaps today's trade.
We saw grain futures rebound as Black Sea uncertainty, Chinese soybean demand, and fading rain hopes outweighed crude oil weakness, while cattle reversed sharply lower.
Soybeans and corn under pressure as rains move into eastern plains and Midwest; wheat strongly higher this morning on new Ukraine damaged a Russian grain terminal; cattle futures higher as cash continued slightly lower; boxed beef lower; very light feeder cattle trade.
Russia and Ukraine continue to create a lot of uncertainty about the global grain supply as the damage to export infrastructure continues. Changes in the upcoming weather looks favorable, though the recent heat wave for the US and the EU also add to the question of what yields will look like for corn and soybeans. Cattle have cautiously entered a recovery. Mike Zuzulo with Global Commodity Analytics recaps today's trade.
Grains hold yesterday but improving short term weather adds pressure this morning; Russia closing 3 grain terminals due to war risk; European heat moving east; cattle futures bounce; cash lower; boxed beef mixed; cash feeders higher; weekly cash summary.
New weather updates provide more chances for rain across the plains and Corn Belt, driving soybeans and corn markets lower. Wheat futures failed to hold their gains today, though the losses were limited by the continued issues with Black Sea grain exports. Cattle futures were higher today, giving some hope that the market may have seen the worst for now. Ross Baldwin with John Stewart & Associates recaps today's trade.
Grains see sharply lower trade on Iran war 'pause', weather and tariff pushback; crop conditions decline; export inspection summary; cattle sharply lower on Mexican border reopening and evidence of herd expansion; cash markets steady with last week's lower trade.
Merging both grains and cattle comments into one podcast. Grains pulled lower by Iran war stalling; weather stays hot for another few days; cattle mixed, waiting for reports; cash lower; boxed beef lower; reports give bearish slant; USDA announces phased reopening of Mexican border.
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Hello Seattle Mariners fans! John Trupin, Isabelle Minasian and Kate Preusser sit together for a rare in person podcast on a Mariners off day (7/23). The team is back for the second half and still stuck in neutral, but the rapidly approaching deadline offers up a new horizon of possibilities. The Mariners assistant hitting coach was let go today as the team's offensive woes continue to carry on. Where do they go from here? Meet at the Mitt Podcast is created and produced by the writers and contributors of Lookout Landing and sponsored by Fans First Sports Network. Submit questions to MATMthepodcast@gmail.com DONATE/SUBSCRIBE ON KOFI: https://ko-fi.com/meetatthemittpodcast DONATE/SUBSCRIBE ON PATREON: https://www.patreon.com/cw/MeetattheMitt SOCIAL LINKS (Twitter/Bluesky): https://twitter.com/MeetattheMitt / https://bsky.app/profile/meetatthemitt.bsky.social https://twitter.com/LookoutLanding / https://bsky.app/profile/lookoutlanding.bsky.social https://twitter.com/JohnTrupin / https://bsky.app/profile/johntrupin.bsky.social https://twitter.com/KatePreusser / https://bsky.app/profile/katepreusser.bsky.social https://twitter.com/EvanJamesAudio / https://bsky.app/profile/evanjamesaudio.bsky.social https://x.com/gbronsdon / https://bsky.app/profile/gbronsdon.bsky.social https://x.com/95coffeespoons / https://bsky.app/profile/95coffeespoons.bsky.social Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Grains rally pauses but hold most gains near 2-year highs for wheat and soybeans; spring wheat tour results; export sales summary; more tariffs coming.
Wheat leads higher as Black Sea war affects grain exports; heat to come back to plains/west Midwest this weekend; Iran war escalation pushing energy prices higher.
Wheat leading higher again as Ukraine and Russia attack vessels and ports; heat returning to plains/west Midwest by this weekend; spring wheat tour show stress to wheat and noting corn stress as well across North Dakota; Iran war pushing energies higher again.
Ukraine's drone technology has advanced, causing Russia to retaliate and close major shipping ports. Weather concerns heat up with the temperatures in both Europe and the US. Cattle fall again today ahead of Friday's Cattle on Feed report. Arlan Suderman with Stone X Financial recaps today's trade.
Wheat corrects while soybeans push higher; weather concerns still the main driver even with cooler temps the next few days; crop progress and condition update; spring wheat tour begins in North Dakota.
Wheat leads grains higher; Russia/Ukraine war potentially disrupting grains flows out of the Black Sea; weather stays hot in central plains/western Midwest; Russian farmers concerned about fuel shortages; world FOB update.
Grain rally stalls, waiting for weekend weather forecasts and war news; Ukraine stifling Russian sea and land traffic; export sales update.
Producers should be prepared for some volatility as war concerns heat back up and drive grain markets once again. Russia and Ukraine continue to target important grain infrastructure, disrupting export markets. Cattle close lower once again, and analysts think that the market still has a ways to go before the bottom is found. Clint Hoffman with Tredas recaps today's trade.
Wheat soars higher as Ukraine and Russia bomb each other's ships and ports; Ukraine declares Force Majeure on corn exports; weather looks to cool next week but stays dry in Midwest; record crush supports soybeans.
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Going on vacation doesn't mean you have to leave your cultured foods behind or worry about your kefir grains. In this episode, Donna shares simple ways to keep kefir grains alive while you're away, when to refrigerate or freeze them, and why Easy Kefir and cultured veggies are some of the best travel companions. Learn how a little planning can help you enjoy your trip and still support your gut wherever you go. Episode link: https://www.culturedfoodlife.com/podcast/going-on-vacation-how-to-care-for-kefir-grains-and-travel-with-cultured-foods-episode-365/ Link(s) I talked about: Article: https://www.culturedfoodlife.com/going-on-vacation-how-to-care-for-kefir-grains-and-travel-with-cultured-foods/ Article: https://www.culturedfoodlife.com/what-to-do-with-your-cultures-while-youre-on-vacation/ Check out these other links: My Story Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CbX9Nv9OtGM For health tips and recipes, subscribe to our weekly emails. We'll also send you our free Getting Started Guide: http://bit.ly/2BnHpay Listen to all my podcasts: http://bit.ly/cflpodcast Become a Biotic Pro Member: http://bit.ly/2kkhwS1 Cultured Food Recipes: http://bit.ly/2UIfY2x Health and Food Topics: http://bit.ly/2SdzIOS My Amazon Shop: https://bit.ly/3KdhEge MY STARTER CULTURES Milk Kefir Grains: http://bit.ly/2rQ99PE L. Reuteri Superfood: https://bit.ly/LReuteriSuperfoodStarter L. Gasseri Superfood: https://bit.ly/LGasseriSuperfoodStarter Easy Kefir: http://bit.ly/2MQ1nPV Kefir Soda Starter: http://bit.ly/3YVErTa Kombucha Starter: http://bit.ly/2g2R9hE Vegetable Starter: http://bit.ly/2SzzVem Sourdough Starter: http://bit.ly/2IjaaXK Other items in my store: http://bit.ly/2HTKZ27 STAY CONNECTED Instagram: http://instagram.com/culturedfoodlife/ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CulturedFoodLife/ Pinterest: http://pinterest.com/donnaschwenk/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/donnaschwenk
Joe's Premium Subscription: www.standardgrain.comGrain Markets and Other Stuff Links —Apple PodcastsSpotifyTikTokYouTubeFutures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.