The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast

Hosted by Ken Bellinger, Research Analyst. 

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research. 

Hosted by Dr. Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist

Hosted by Matt Morzy, Director of Research. 

Hosted by Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist

Hosted by Derek Felske, Chief Investment Officer. 

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research.

Hosted by Dr. Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist Annex Wealth Management. 

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research, and Ken Bellinger, Research Analyst. 

Joined by Derek Felske, Chief Investment Officer. 

ISM Manufacturing peeks its head above 50 finally but the Service Sector Stumbles. Looking for opportunity? Don't get distracted by the constant Wall of Worry but since tariffs (so far) have been a tool, not a policy--watch for threats.

The other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 look strong while the tech sector shows weakness. Opportunity through active management but volatility remains a threat. 

So far, so good for Trump 47 but tariff prospects are a weakness. Opportunity by embracing optimism but a ticked-off Trump is a threat. 

Discretionary stocks vs staples is our strength while market volatility creates weakness. The first year of a presidency brings opportunity but the dollar's strength is a threat. 

Services stay strong while sentiment and valuation show weakness. There is opportunity as fear fades but if the markets don't broaden out soon, we could see a significant decline. 

Back in black gold is our strength while bad breadth is becoming a weakness. There is opportunity in real yields and real growth while a threat emerges with price being what you pay while value is what you get. 

2024 was a magnificent year but international malaise is a weakness. Opportunity with new leaders in a new year but the potential for more volatility is a threat. 

The US economy is resilient while sentiment and valuation pose weaknesses. For opportunity, take the long view while the possibility of inflation rearing its ugly head in 2025 is a threat.  

Optimism, but inflation's a touch hot. Opportunities, since the Fed won't defy gravity but will we see tariffs before we hear talk? 

The economy keeps chugging but manufacturing continues its weakness. Watch for opportunity in beaten-down industries but watch the threat of high valuations. 

Moderating inflation drives improved purchasing power while the air has been let out of software. 2025 earnings acceleration is an opportunity but ignoring risk mitigation mimics the turkey's lifecycle. 

Goodbye uncertainty but higher rates on a valuation headwind are a weakness. Laggards are turning into leaders but remember the risk before the market makes you. 

Special Guest: Brian Kersmanc - Portfolio Manager - GQG Partners

Markets elect to rally but ballet box bond blues are a weakness. Campaigning for change presents opportunity but polling pressures trade and inflation create threats. 

Good goods growth so far for a strength while valuations pose a weakness. There is opportunity with Election Day on the doorstep but election angst is a threat. 

Strength: The undead dollar. Weakness: Rates Ding Dong Ditch it. Opportunities: Bobbing for duration. Threat: Phantom Market Movement.

Retail sales stay strong while volatility remains in long rates. There's another chance to add duration but recession warning signals are beginning. 

Stocks are the strength this week while yields up while certain asset prices are down are a weakness. There is opportunity to get growing at a reasonable price while voting with your portfolio instead of the polls is a threat. 

Hard data supports a soft landing while returns may have discounted positive future fundamentals. There's an opportunity to get out of cash but rebounding inflation poses a threat. 

China gooses its economy while US consumers aren't feeling confident. There was a big cut but little pain, possibly because easing might have been too little, too late. 

Housing appears in both strengths and weaknesses this week. There is opportunity in small caps and natural gas while long yield and election volatility are threats. 

Gold and tech in the strength column while the consumer weakens. Opportunity exists in the relative strength of individual equities post-sell off. The dual mandates of the Fed remain a threat. 

Dr Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economist, and Ken Bellinger, Research Analyst present the Labor Day Weekend edition of the SWOT Podcast. 

There's broad Fed agreement at the Jackson Hole meeting that it's time to cut, but the Fed and the market are on different pages.

Inflation continues to abate while the labor market weakens. Opportunity exists through volatility while the threat remains for a Fed policy error. 

Strength: inflation abation. Weakness: sales and earnings pressure. Opportunity: financials, dividend growers, and select growth stocks. Threat: a Fed delay.

Strength: bonds diversified stocks. Weakness: the labor market. Opportunity: selective stock selection. Threat: bad news is now bad news. 

It's what they do best, consumers consuming---and that's our strength this week. China grasping at straws is a weakness but there is opportunity to ride the market emotional rollercoaster. For a threat, we ask 'has the damage been done'? 

Strength: The Fed's tone is changingWeakness: Tech wreckOpportunity: Ride the rotationThreat: Snowballing negative sentiment

Strength: interest rate pressure might be subsiding. Weakness: risk to earnings forecasts. Opportunity: companies that disproportionately benefit from lower rates. Threat: a rotation away from market cap heavy names.

Modest progress toward inflation targets for strength but weakness with cracks in the credit armor. Opportunity exists with cheap protection but economic roadburn and politics are weaknesses. 

Our strength is continued US exceptionalism while concentration risks in the economy present weakness. Opportunity exists by not extrapolating the downward trend in momentum towards something else while momentum crashes present a threat. 

Nvidia (and chips) are strong while consumers are feeling pinched. There is opportunity with the acceleration of earnings but a threat remains if the Fed acts too little, too late. 

Back on track for inflation but lingering weakness in transportation names. Opportunity with quality growth (and AI has legs!) but complacency in the Magnificent Seven. 

Interest and dividends are helping retirees but higher rates may eventually bite. There are opportunities in infrastructure and utilities with AI but geopolitical risk is coming back. 

Strength: Average stock is better than the index. Weakness: Auction anxiety is back. Opportunity: Oversold interest rate sensitives are good for a trade. Weakness: Growth cools faster than inflation.  

NVIDIA is the coolest kid in the class but we're beginning to see a bifurcated economy. Opportunities exist by focusing on quality but a growth scare poses a threat. 

A 40,000 DOW is a strength while there are more cracks in the consumer's facade. Why sell in May when you can just stay? And a no-landing but turbulence ahead appears as a threat. 

Rising earnings expectations are a strength but is the labor market beginning to crack? An opportunity exists to rethink real assets but the threat of decelerating economic growth has arrived.