The Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast

Associate research analyst Mark Schaefer joined the episode to walk through strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats.StrengthsCorporate earnings are very strong. About 86% of S&P 500 companies beat Q2 estimates — the highest share since Q2 2021 — and analysts expect roughly 30% full-year 2026 earnings growth (FactSet). Higher profits support stock prices and mechanically pull P/E multiples down because earnings sit in the denominator.The job market is also holding up, with unemployment forecasts steady around 4.1%. That stability supports consumer confidence and spending, which remains a core driver of the economy.WeaknessesValuations remain elevated. The S&P 500 trailing twelve-month P/E is about 25.6, down from earlier highs near 28.9 but still well above the five-year average of ~19. The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5%, its highest level since July 2007, even after the Fed's latest hike. Stocks therefore need stronger earnings just to justify current prices.Market breadth is poor. AI-related names (AMD is cited as an example) have hit all-time highs, while banks such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley and utilities have been sluggish or near multi-month/yearly lows. Headline index strength therefore overstates how broadly the market is participating. If the leaders fade, there is limited ballast underneath.OpportunitiesA U.S.–China trade deal (now delayed until January) would ease tariff costs for businesses and consumers. Polymarket odds were cited at 93% that a deal eventually happens. That would be particularly constructive for trade-exposed areas such as semiconductors and manufacturing.A large AI IPO wave is another theme. SpaceX listed in June; Anthropic and OpenAI are expected next. Listings would give investors more direct AI exposure and generate underwriting fees that have already helped banks such as Morgan Stanley post strong revenue.ThreatsAnother Fed hike is possible. The next meeting is October 28, and some discussion points to a further 25 basis points. Higher rates raise costs for businesses and households and increase the discount rate applied to future earnings, which makes already-high valuations harder to sustain. New Fed Chair Warsh was described as keeping his views close.The consistent recommendation was a diversified portfolio built to withstand short-term volatility so that long-term outcomes remain favorable.

Featuring Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Featuring Annex Wealth Management Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Featuring Annex Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

Featuring Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Featuring Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Featuring Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Featuring Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Featuring Research Analyst, Mark Schaefer.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

In this week's Annex Wealth Management SWOT Podcast, Annex Wealth Management's Research Analyst Jacob Johnson breaks down the latest market and economic signals.StrengthsNon-tech and non-AI sectors displayed solid resilience amid last week's tech volatility. Despite the Nasdaq dropping ~5%, investors didn't run to cash — they simply rotated into other areas of the market, signaling underlying stability and continued confidence.WeaknessesAI cost pressures are now reaching consumers. Apple and Microsoft raised prices on devices due to surging memory and storage costs, sparking fears of demand destruction and triggering sell-offs (Apple fell ~6%). Questions are growing about how long semiconductor profit margins can remain at elevated levels.OpportunitiesThe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz delivered major relief, driving oil prices down sharply from over $100 to around $70 per barrel. If sustained, this disinflationary boost could offset tech-driven price hikes, ease energy costs, and give the Fed more room to maneuver.ThreatsInflation is running hotter than expected. The Fed's preferred PCE index jumped to 4.1% in May (highest in ~3 years), with core PCE at 3.4%. This sticky data limits new Chair Kevin Warsh's options, raising the risk of “higher for longer” interest rates and pressuring consumers if wage growth can't keep pace.A clear, balanced SWOT update that highlights a market in transition — broader resilience despite concentrated tech weakness, with energy prices now acting as a pivotal swing factor for inflation and policy.

Featuring Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Featuring Annex Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

Featuring Annex Associate Research Analyst, Mark Schaefer.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Research Analyst, Nick Hillstrom.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Trader, Mark Schaefer.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.  Markets are fragmenting fast: while software stocks slide into a full‑blown bear market, pick‑and‑shovel AI infrastructure names, from semiconductors to power and optical networking, are quietly carrying the upside. Earnings leadership is broadening beyond mega‑cap tech, making the market more resilient, but pressure is building from a flattening yield curve, stressed private credit, and rising geopolitical risk. Everything now hinges on the Strait of Hormuz, because a real de‑escalation could unlock a powerful relief rally, while prolonged conflict could keep oil, yields, and volatility locked in a dangerous feedback loop.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.  We are seeing a collision between the massive potential of AI-driven productivity and the inflationary shocks of a new, more aggressive geopolitical era.  Remain selective, know what you own and why.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Mark Schaefer, Trader at Annex Wealth Management.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Chief Investment Officer, Derek Felske.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Dr. Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economic Strategist.

Hosted by Joe Krauss and Assistant Research Analyst, Jacob Johnson.

Hosted by Nick Hillstrom, Research Analyst.

Hosted by Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Director of Equity Research, Jason Cooper.

Hosted by Chief Economic Strategist, Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Director of Equity Research, Jason Cooper.

Hosted by Dr. Brian Jacobsen.

Hosted by Jacob Johnson, Assistant Research Analyst.

Hosted by Derek Felske, Chief Investment Officer.

How are tariffs and tech earnings shaping market turmoil right now?  Hosted by Jacob Johnson, Assistant Research Analyst.

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research.

Hosted by Dr. Brian Jacobsen, Chief Economic Strategist.

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research.

Hosted by Derek Felske, Chief Investment Officer.

Hosted by Jacob Johnson, Associate Research Analyst.

Hosted by Jason Cooper, Director of Equity Research.