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On the whole, consumers are feeling 20% worse about the economy than they were a year ago, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. High prices were cited as one concern, but that's been a pain point for years. So what's new? Also in this episode: Uncertainty in the tech sector drums up investor interest in consumer staples, the federal government yanked over 3,000 data sets from public sites under President Trump, and a dancer-educator discusses the business of ballet.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets and Global Chief Economist Seth Carpenter unpack the inner workings of the Federal Reserve to illustrate the challenges that Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may face.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript ----- Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Seth Carpenter: And I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. Andrew Sheets: And today on the podcast, a further discussion of a new Fed chair and the challenges they may face. It's Friday, February 6th at 1 pm in New York. Seth, it's great to be here talking with you, and I really want to continue a conversation that listeners have been hearing on this podcast over this week about a new nominee to chair the Federal Reserve: Kevin Warsh. And you are the perfect person to talk about this, not just because you lead our economic research and our macro research, but you've also worked at the Fed. You've seen the inner workings of this organization and what a new Fed chair is going to have to deal with. So, maybe just for some broad framing, when you saw this announcement come out, what were some of the first things to go through your mind? Seth Carpenter: I will say first and foremost, Kevin Warsh's name was one of the names that had regularly come up when the White House was providing names of people they were considering in lots of news cycles. So, I think the first thing that's critically important from my perspective, is – not a shock, right? Sort of a known quantity. Second, when we think about these really important positions, there's a whole range of possible outcomes. And I would've said that of the four names that were in the final set of four that we kept hearing about in the news a lot. You know, some differences here and there across them, but none of them was substantially outside of what I would think of as mainstream sort of thinking. Nothing excessively unorthodox at all like that. So, in that regard as well, I think it should keep anybody from jumping to any big conclusions that there's a huge change that's imminent. I think the other thing that's really important is the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve really is made by a committee. The Federal Open Market Committee and committee matters in these cases. The Fed has been under lots of scrutiny, under lots of pressure, depending on how you want to put it. And so, as a result, there's a lot of discussion within the institution about their independence, making sure they stick very scrupulously to their congressionally given mandate of stable prices, full employment. And so, what does that mean in practice? That means in practice, to get a substantially different outcome from what the committee would've done otherwise… So, the market is pricing; what's the market pricing for the funds rate at the end of this year? About 3.2 percent. Andrew Sheets: Something like that. Yeah. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. So that's a reasonable forecast. It's not too far away from our house view. For us to end up with a policy rate that's substantially away from that – call it 1 percentage, 2 percentage points away from that. I just don't see that as likely to happen. Because the committee can be led, can be swayed by the chair, but not to the tune of 1 or 2 percentage points. And so, I think for all those reasons, there wasn't that much surprise and there wasn't, for me, a big reason to fully reevaluate where we think the Fed's going. Andrew Sheets: So let me actually dig into that a little bit more because I know our listeners tune in every day to hear a lot about government meetings. But this is a case where that really matters because I think there can sometimes be a misperception around the power of this position. And it's both one of the most public important positions in the world of finance. And yet, as you mentioned, it is overseeing a committee where the majority matters. And so, can you take us just a little bit inside those discussions? I mean, how does the Fed Chair interact with their colleagues? How do they try to convince them and persuade them to take a particular course of action? Seth Carpenter: Great question. And you're right, I sort of spent a bunch of time there at the Fed. I started when Greenspan was chair. I worked under the Bernanke Fed. And of course, for the end of that, Janet Yellen was the vice chair. So, I've worked with her. Jay Powell was on the committee the whole time. So, the cast of characters quite familiar and the process is important. So, I would say a few things. The chair convenes the meetings; the chair creates the agenda for the meeting. The chair directs the staff on what the policy documents are that the committee is going to get. So, there's a huge amount of influence, let's say, there. But in order to actually get a specific outcome, there really is a vote. And we only have to look back a couple weeks to the last FOMC meeting when there were two dissents against the policy decision. So, dissents are not super common. They don't happen at every single meeting, but they're not unheard of by any stretch of the imagination either. And if we go back over the past few years, lots going on with inflation and how the economy was going was uncertain. Chair Powell took some dissents. If we go back to the financial crisis Chair Bernanke took a bunch of dissents. If we go back even further through time, Paul Volcker, when he was there trying to staunch the flow of the high inflation of the 1970s, faced a lot of resistance within his committee. And reportedly threatened to quit if he couldn't get his way. And had to be very aggressive in trying to bring the committee along. So, the chair has to find a way to bring the committee along with the plan that the chair wants to execute. Lots of tools at their disposal, but not endless power or influence. Does that make sense? Andrew Sheets: That makes complete sense. So, maybe my final question, Seth, is this is a tough job. This is a tough job in… Seth Carpenter: You mean your job and my job, or… Andrew Sheets: [Laughs] Not at all. The chair of the Fed. And it seems especially tricky now. You know, inflation is above the Fed's target. Interest rates are still elevated. You know, certainly mortgage rates are still higher than a lot of Americans are used to over the last several years. And asset prices are high. You know, the valuation of the equity market is high. The level of credit spreads is tight. So, you could say, well, financial conditions are already quite easy, which can create some complications. I am sure Kevin Warsh is receiving lots of advice from lots of different angles. But, you know, if you think about what you've seen from the Fed over the years, what would be your advice to a new Fed chair – and to navigate some of these challenges? Seth Carpenter: I think first and foremost, you are absolutely right. This is a tough job in the best of times, and we are in some of the most difficult and difficult to understand macroeconomic times right now. So, you noted interest rates being high, mortgage rates being high. There's very much an eye of the beholder phenomenon going on here. Now you're younger than I am. The first mortgage I had. It was eight and a half percent. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: I bought a house in 2000 or something like that. So, by those standards, mortgage rates are actually quite low. So, it really comes down to a little bit of what you're used to. And I think that fact translates into lots of other places. So, inflation is now much higher than the committee's target. Call it 3 percent inflation instead core inflation on PCE, rather than 2 percent inflation target. Now, on the one hand that's clearly missing their target and the Fed has been missing their target for years. And we know that tariffs are pushing up inflation, at least for consumer goods. And Chair Powell and this committee have said they get that. They think that inflation will be temporary, and so they're going to look through that inflation. So again, there's a lot of judgment going on here. The labor market is quite weak. Andrew Sheets: Hmm. Seth Carpenter: We don't have the latest months worth of job market data because of the government shutdown; that'll be delayed by a few days. But we know that at the end of last year, non-farm payrolls were running well below 50,000. Under most circumstances, you would say that is a clear indication of a super weak economy. But! But if we look at aggregate spending data, GDP, private-domestic final purchases, consumer spending, CapEx spending. It's actually pretty solid right now. And so again, that sense of judgment; what's the signal you're going to look for? That's very, very difficult right now, and that's part of what the chair is going to have to do to try to bring the committee together, in order to come to a decision. So, one intellectually coherent argument is – the main way you could get strong aggregate demand, strong spending numbers, strong GDP numbers, but with pretty tepid labor force growth is if productivity is running higher and if productivity is going higher because of AI, for example, over time you could easily expect that to be disinflationary. And if it's disinflationary, then you can cut it. Interest rates now. Not worry as much as you would normally about high inflation. And so, the result could be a lower path for policy rates. So that's one version of the argument that I suspect you're going to hear. On the other hand, inflation is high and it's been high for years. So what does that mean? Well. History suggests that if inflation stays too high for too long, inflation psychology starts to change the way businesses start to set. Andrew Sheets: Mm-hmm. Seth Carpenter: Their own prices can get a little bit loosey-goosey. They might not have to worry as much about consumers being as picky because everybody's got used to these price changes. Consumers might be become less picky because, well, they're kind of sick of shopping around. They might be more willing to accept those higher prices, and that's how things snowball. So, I do think that the new chair is going to face a particularly difficult situation in leading a committee in particularly challenging times. But I've gone on for a long, long time there. And one of the things that I love about getting to talk to you, Andrew, is the fact that you also talked to lots of investors all around the world. You're based in London. And so when the topic of the new Fed chair comes up, what are the questions that you're getting from clients? Andrew Sheets: So, I think that there are a few questions that stand out. I mean, I think a dominant question among investors was around the stability of the U.S. dollar. And so, you could say a good development on the back of Kevin Warsh's nomination is that the market response to that has been the price action you would associate with more stability. You've seen the dollar rise; you've seen precious metals prices fall. You've seen equity markets and credit spreads be very stable. So, I think so far everything in the market reaction is to your; to the point that you raised, you know, consistent with this still being orthodox policy. Every Fed chair is different, but still more similar than different now. I think where it gets more divergent in client opinions is just – what are we going to see from the Fed? Are we going to see a real big change in policy? And I think that this is where there are very different views of Kevin Warsh from investors. Some who say, ‘Well, he's in the past talked about fighting inflation more aggressively, which would imply tighter policy.' And he's also talked more recently about the productivity gains from AI and how that might support lower interest rates. So, I think that there's going to be a lot of interest when he starts to speak publicly, when we see testimony in front of the Senate. I think the other, the final piece, which I think again, people do not have as fully formed an opinion on yet is – how does he lead the Fed if the data is unexpected? And you know, you mentioned inflation and, you know, Morgan Stanley has this forecast that: Well, owner's equivalent rent, a really key part of inflation, might be a little bit higher than expected, which might be a distortion coming off of the government shutdown and impacts on data. But there's some real uncertainty about the inflation path over the near term. And so, in short, I think investors are going to give the benefit of the doubt. For now, I think they're going to lean more into this idea that it will be generally consistent with the Fed easing policy over time, for now. Generally consistent with a steeper curve for now. But I think there's a lot we're going to find out over the next couple of weeks and months. Seth Carpenter: Yeah. No, I agree with you. Andrew, I have to say, I'm glad you're here in New York. It's always great to sit down and talk to you. Let's do it again before too long. Andrew Sheets: Absolutely, Seth. Thanks for taking the time to talk. And to our audience, thank you as always for your time. If you find Thoughts the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

On the whole, consumers are feeling 20% worse about the economy than they were a year ago, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. High prices were cited as one concern, but that's been a pain point for years. So what's new? Also in this episode: Uncertainty in the tech sector drums up investor interest in consumer staples, the federal government yanked over 3,000 data sets from public sites under President Trump, and a dancer-educator discusses the business of ballet.Every story has an economic angle. Want some in your inbox? Subscribe to our daily or weekly newsletter.Marketplace is more than a radio show. Check out our original reporting and financial literacy content at marketplace.org — and consider making an investment in our future.

Next week, I am in Paris. And I have the privledge to document the session on "Rethinking The WIne Business." Two of the prominent panel members are Paul Mabray and Priscilla Hennekam.  There is a movement in the trade to mix things up a bit; make some changes, move the needle a bit. Paul Mabray is considered the pre-eminent authority of all things digital wine. Platforms, logistics, user-experience and more, all play into the realm of Paul's knowledge base.  I have to tell you, having Paul Mabray on the show was a breath of fresh air—no other way to describe it. He's got this knack for slicing through the clutter and getting to the heart of what's happening in the wine world today. You know me, I love a good anecdote and an insightful thought, and he delivered plenty. Right out of the gate, Paul Mabray hit us with a beautiful metaphor: a glass of wine is a time capsule, a space-time machine connecting you to France ten years ago, or some other corner of the world and moment in history. I was hooked! That's what keeps me coming back to these conversations—a guest who sees past the label and into the soul of wine itself. We started the episode in my studio in Monroeville, California, broadcasting all the way to Napa. Paul Mabray—and, yes, for the record, both our names being Paul made the "Paul Squared" jokes inevitable—has worn many hats: club manager, consultant, software innovator, and digital pioneer. I reminisced about the early days of my own family's Wine of the Month Club: carbon paper, binders stuffed with customer cards, and handwritten manifests. He nodded knowingly, recalling his own journey at Niebaum Coppola, and the story about hiring Rob Crumb to write Access for Dummies so they could process wine club memberships in 72 hours instead of weeks! That story, I thought, is the kind of practical innovation the wine business desperately needed. As I listened to Paul Mabray, it occurred to me how much the industry has changed. The old guard—wholesalers, lobbyists—used to make it nearly impossible to ship direct to consumers. Back then, you practically had to sneak into the Wholesalers Association. He reminded me how those lobbying efforts were already fracturing in the mid-2000s, and with COVID, things are accelerating. Consumers are getting what they want, regulations be damned. That's insight you only get from someone who's lived both the analog and digital sides of the game. We also dove into software innovation—my old-school, "clunky but functional" database meets his experience launching e-commerce solutions like Wine Direct back in 2002. He had me laughing with stories of credit card gateways thinking a massive wine club was a puppy mill for stolen cards. The way he explained the evolution from manual systems to omnichannel cloud solutions made me realize: in the wine business, technology is about scaling human connection, not replacing it. A favorite moment in our conversation was when we discussed the fragility of relying on the tasting room model. Fires, earthquakes, and COVID have hammered the point home—it's time to reach consumers in Boston, Austin, Anchorage, wherever they are. It's about connection. That's tough for the "gentleman farmers" who often own wineries now, but it's necessary. Paul Mabray sees the golden age of wine online coming, and I'm inclined to agree. If you want a snapshot of the state and future of wine, these are the conversations to listen to. Technology, branding, regulation, and, of course, the existential experience of sharing a bottle—wine, Paul Mabray reminds us, is a social time capsule. He left me thinking that the business side, the digital side, and the soul of wine are all lining up for a renaissance. And that's a story worth sharing.  

Guest: John Cochrane. Cochrane analyzes the inadequacy of tariffs as an economic tool, explaining why they fail to achieve their intended goals and often harm domestic consumers and businesses1965 SHANGHAI

Stay informed on current events, visit www.NaturalNews.com - Introduction and Segment Overview (0:00) - Dog Video and Belgian Malinois Breed (1:27) - Introduction of Brighte Videos and AI Avatars (6:16) - Jane Lynn's Report on Protein Powders (7:44) - Ethical Use of AI Avatars and Social Media Platforms (12:09) - Impact of GLP Weight Loss Drugs on Mental Health (29:13) - Valentine's Day Sale and Health Ranger Store (56:19) - Financial Advice and Counterparty Risk (56:37) - Project Vault and Critical Mineral Shortages (1:11:55) - Conclusion and Final Thoughts (1:21:59) - Critical Minerals Shortage and Technological Challenges (1:22:16) - Unique Properties of Elements and the Limits of Substitution (1:25:57) - The Long-Term Gap in Technological Advancement (1:28:21) - Health and Economic Implications of Unhealthy Population (1:31:06) - The Role of Big Pharma and the Federal Reserve in America's Decline (1:33:30) - The Fight for Access to Natural Medicine (1:42:09) - The Impact of Legislative Bans on Consumers (1:47:24) - The Science and Safety of Hemp Products (2:05:39) - The Role of Education and Self-Responsibility in Health (2:11:57) - The Future of Hemp and Natural Medicine (2:29:11) Watch more independent videos at http://www.brighteon.com/channel/hrreport  ▶️ Support our mission by shopping at the Health Ranger Store - https://www.healthrangerstore.com ▶️ Check out exclusive deals and special offers at https://rangerdeals.com ▶️ Sign up for our newsletter to stay informed: https://www.naturalnews.com/Readerregistration.html Watch more exclusive videos here:

This week's episode of Wealth Formula features an interview with Claudia Sahm, and I want to share a quick takeaway before you listen — because she's often misunderstood in the headlines. First, a quick explanation of the Sahm Rule, in plain English. The rule looks at unemployment and asks a very simple question:Has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? Specifically, if the three-month average unemployment rate rises by 0.5% or more above its lowest level over the past year, the Sahm Rule is triggered. Historically, that has happened early in every U.S. recession since World War II. That's why it gets cited so much. And to be clear — it's cited a lot. The Sahm Rule is tracked by the Federal Reserve, Treasury economists, Wall Street banks, macro funds, and economic research shops globally. When it triggers, it shows up everywhere. That's not by accident. Claudia built one of the cleanest early-warning indicators we have. But here's the part that often gets lost. The Sahm Rule is not a market-timing tool and it's not a prediction machine. Claudia emphasized this repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal — a way to say, “Hey, if unemployment is rising this fast, waiting too long to respond makes things worse.” In other words, it's a call to action for policymakers, not a command for investors to panic. What makes this cycle unusual — and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful — is what's actually driving the data. We're not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. What we're seeing instead is very weak hiring. Companies aren't firing people — they're just not expanding. That distinction matters. And this is where I think the big picture comes in — not just for understanding the economy, but for investing in general. When you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that needs interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. And it includes the reality that if the current Fed leadership won't ease fast enough, future leadership will. History tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need — even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments, and even if it takes a shift toward a more dovish Federal Reserve. That doesn't mean reckless money printing tomorrow. But it does mean that structurally high rates are unlikely to be permanent. And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month's headline and more about what's positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. That's why I continue to focus on real assets that are already deeply discounted — things like multifamily real estate — assets that were repriced brutally during the rate shock, but still sit at the center of a growing, rent-dependent economy. This conversation with Claudia reinforced something I've been talking about for a long time:The biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I've made this mistake myself. If you want a thoughtful, non-sensational, data-driven discussion about where we actually are in this cycle — and what the indicators really mean — I think you'll get a lot out of this episode. Transcript Disclaimer: This transcript was generated by AI and may not be 100% accurate. If you notice any errors or corrections, please email us at phil@wealthformula.com. Welcome everybody. This is Buck Joffrey with the Well Formula Podcast coming to you from Montecito, California. Before we begin today, I wanna remind you, uh, listen, we’re back in, uh, back in the saddle in here in, uh, 2026. I know it’s takes some time to get used to it, but we’re, gosh, we’re at the end of the month actually by the time this plays. I think we’re in February. It’s time again to start thinking about investing. And so if you are interested in potentially using this year, which I believe and which many believe to potentially be the last year, uh, big discounts, uh, in real estate and, uh, various other types of offerings. Make sure. To sign up for the Accredit Investor group, our investor club, as we call it wealthformula.com. You do need to be an accredit investor and then you get onboarded. An accredit investor is just defined by who you are. If you make over $300,000 per year filing jointly, or 200 by yourself, every reasonable expectation to do so in the future. Or you have a net worth of a million dollars outta your personal, outside of your personal residence, you’re an accredit investor. Congratulations. Join the club wealthformula.com. Interesting podcast. Today we have, uh, Claudia Sahm She’s a Big Deal, Claudia Sahm. You may recognize that last name som, for this som rule. And what is a som rule in plain English. You actually have heard of the som rule multiple times from other economists who’ve been on the show. The som rule looks at unemployment. And asks a very simple question. Now, has the unemployment rate started rising meaningfully from its recent low? So specifically, if the three month average unemployment rate rises 0.5% or more above its lowest level, over the past year, this som rule is triggered. Now, historically, that has happened early in every US recession since the World War ii. That’s why it gets cited so much. It gets cited a lot. By the way, the sum rule is tracked by the Fed treasury economists, wall Street Banks, macro funds, economic research shops globally, and when it triggers, it shows up everywhere, and that’s not by accident. Uh, Claudia has built one of the cleanest early warning indicators we have, but here’s the part that often gets lost. The som rule is not a market timing tool, and it’s not a prediction machine. Claudia, uh, emphasized that repeatedly. It was designed as a policy signal, a way to say, Hey, if unemployment’s rising this fast, wait, waiting too long to respond makes things worse. In other words, it’s call to action for policy makers, not a command for investors to panic per se. So what makes this cycle unusual and why talking to Claudia directly was so helpful? Well, it’s what’s actually driving the data. We’re not seeing mass layoffs. Layoffs remain low by historical standards. Um, what we’re seeing instead is very weak. Hiring companies aren’t firing people, they’re just not expanding, and that distinction matters. This is where the big picture comes in, not just for understanding the economy. For investing in general and when you step back, the big picture includes a government with massive debt loads that need interest rates to come down over time. It includes fiscal pressures that make prolonged high rates politically and economically painful. I’ve mentioned this before and it includes the reality that have to fed, fed, uh, if the current Fed leadership won’t ease fast enough. I am likely the case that future leadership appointed by. Donald Trump himself, uh, will, so history tells us that governments eventually get the monetary conditions they need, even if it takes time, even if it takes new appointments. And even if it takes a shift towards a more dovish federal reserve. Uh, that doesn’t mean, uh, reckless money printing tomorrow, but it does mean that structurally. High interest rates are unlikely to be permanent. Okay? And when you combine that with investing, the question becomes less about this month’s headline and more about what’s positioned to benefit when the environment normalizes. Okay? That’s really, really important, and that’s why I continue to focus on things like real estate, right? Real estate is currently. Not for long, in my opinion, but deeply discounted things like multifamily real estate, um, that were repriced brutally during the rate shot, uh, but are still at the center of a growing and, and rent dependent economy. And again, uh, this conversation with Claudia reinforced something that I’ve been talking about a long time, which is the biggest investing mistakes usually happen when people zoom in too far and forget to zoom back out. I’ve made that mistake myself. I am not immune. I have made lots of mistakes, and that’s one of them. So this is a great conversation. Hopefully you’ll enjoy it, especially if you want a thoughtful, nons sensational data-driven discussion. Where we are actually at in this cycle and what these indicators really mean. I think you’ll get a lot of this episode and we will have this conversation for you right after these messages. Wealth formula banking is an ingenious concept powered by whole life insurance, but instead of acting just as a safety net. The strategy supercharges your investments. First, you create a personal financial reservoir that grows at a compounding interest rate much higher than any bank savings account. As your money accumulates, you borrow from your own bank to invest in other cash flowing investments. Here’s the key. Even though you borrowed money at a simple interest rate, your insurance company keeps. Paying you compound interest on that money even though you’ve borrowed it at result, you make money in two places at the same time. That’s why your investments get supercharged. This isn’t a new technique. It’s a refined strategy used by some of the wealthiest families in history, and it uses century old rock solid insurance companies as its backbone. Turbocharge your investments. Visit Wealthformulabanking.com. Again, that’s wealth formula banking.com. Welcome back to the show, everyone. Today my guest on Wealth Formula podcast is Dr. Claudia Sahm. Uh, she’s an American, uh, macroeconomic expert, uh, known for her work, uh, on monetary and fiscal policy and real-time economic indicators. She developed this som rule, which I think, uh, people have mentioned on this show before, so this is a great opportunity to talk to her about that. Uh, it’s a widely, uh, followed recession signal based on unemployment. She’s also a former Federal Reserve economist and senior policy advisor in government. Um, so welcome, uh, Dr. Sahm. Great. Happy to be here. Thank you. Well, let’s, let’s kind of start out with this som rule because, uh, you know, it’s funny, we, we have had a few different people, uh, at various times bring up the SOM rule, and I think one had actually said that it was triggered, but I don’t don’t think it was at any rate, let’s, let’s start with that. What is the som rule? Lemme start with why is there a som rule, and then we’ll then we’ll get to specifically what the, what the rule is itself. So when I started out on the project, it wasn’t so much about. Calling a recession, like there are some really fancy technical ways that economists like look at the tea leaves and the data and either try to forecast a recession, which is incredibly hard, or even just say we’re in a recession in real time. So like that’s a useful endeavor. But what actually was behind the development of my recession indicator was more of a call to action. How do we develop policies that, that the Congress can put into place very quickly if a recession comes? So these kind of what are referred to as automatic stabilizers, so they’re decided upon ahead of time, but then you do need a trigger that says a recession is here. So now that enhance the unemployment benefits, send out the stimulus checks, whatever it is that we kind of have as our typical tools that are used in recessions, we could have those ready to go as kind of guardrails. Then like you, you turn the policy on. So that was really my emphasis was on how do we do better policy and recessions, get the support out quickly. ’cause that’s the best chance of kind of stabilizing the situation. And then it’s like, well it was in a, it was in a policy volume that they asked for, like a really concrete proposal. So if I’m gonna say an automatic stabilizer, I need to have a proposal for what a trigger could be. So that’s really where the som rule came. So I think it is important. It’s definitely important to me to, I always remember like what the kind of reason for it’s sure. Now that also guided what the indicator itself looks like. So again, it was gonna be in, in fiscal policy. It needs to be simple, it needs to be something that we track it and it needs to, I felt it was important that it capture the reason that we. Fight recessions, why there’s such a bad, uh, you know, outcome. And so it looks at the, the unemployment rate. I use the national unemployment rate, take a three month average. ’cause we wanna smooth out, like there’s bumps and wiggles in the data from month to month. So you kind of, you know, three month average. One way to smooth it out. So you take that series of three month averages, you look at the current value, you compare to the lowest value over the prior 12 months, if you’ve seen an increase of a half, a percentage point or more. Which is really pretty modest, but half a percentage point or more. Historically, we have been in the early months of a recession, so it’s not a forecast. It’s supposed to be like we’re in it. Let’s go. It’s an empirical pattern. It’s one that’s worked in the United States. It reflects kind of our labor market institutions, the way unemployment rate moves and recessions. It historically is the case that once you get past a certain threshold of increased unemployment rate, it tends to build on itself. And in a typical recession, we see increases of. Two, three or more percentage points in the unemployment rate. Uh, so that’s, that’s what the summer rule is. And in fact, it did trigger in the summer of 2024. At that time I had said like, look around, we are not in a recession. GP is still expanding. Job creation is still happening. We don’t see the other hallmarks of a recession. And pointed to the fact that we’d had a very disrupted labor market after the pandemic in particular. You know, there had been a lot of immigration at that point. The unemployment rate is the total number of unemployed. So people who don’t have a job but are actively looking for one out of the labor force, right? And so these people that have to either be employed or looking for jobs, and so we actually saw from the pandemic. Both with the pandemic and then later with the surge and now the reversal in immigration. We’ve seen a lot of movement in the, in the labor force, which makes unemployment rate a little tricky to interpret. And then I’d also argue, we saw early in the pandemic, the unemployment rate dropped very rapidly. We even had labor shortages. So in some ways unemployment rate rising and it has risen over. I mean, it continued to rise last year in 2025. A lot of that’s also normalization. We’d had a very low unemployment rate. So I think the, the pandemic recession has a lot of features that were very unusual. We’ll talk probably more about the labor market continued to be kind of unusual. So the, you know, the somal was not the only recession indicator to fall flat on its face in the cycle. Um, but I think it’s still a useful, useful guide and I, and. You know, even if it’s not a recession, the, the unemployment rate is a full percentage point above, its low in 2023. So, I mean, that, that could, that could be a reason for policymakers to respond, even if it’s not responding to a recession. Right. That was the first time that it, that triggered and, and actually didn’t. End up in a recession, right? There’s some back in the 1950s, earlier, but it’s, it’s the first time where there’ve been some false positives in the past or, or near false positives. Like in 2003. It was kind of close, uh, is like the unemployment rate rises a little bit and then it falls back down. What we saw after it triggered in 2024 is it stabilized. Then last year it continued to rise. So this the pattern that we’ve seen since the pandemic of rapid recovery dropping unemployment rate and then it’s like gradually rising and yet has risen a full percentage point that you go all the way back in the post World War II period. We don’t see anything that looks like that. So that is a very unusual. Paris. So something’s more is going on in the labor market than just our typical business cycle, boom, bust, recession type dynamics. So what is that? What is the thing that’s happening that’s unusual right now in the labor market? Right? So the thing that is driving the unemployment rate up, I think this is a good lesson, a reminder to all of us. It’s not about layoffs. The rate of layoffs in the United States is really quite low. You look at unemployment insurance claims, they’re also quite low. What’s been pushing the unemployment rate up over the last two and a half years has been a very low rate of hiring and, and it’s, and it is something that over time will at least gradually put upward pressure on the unemployment rate and frankly. Until hiring picks up and we really don’t have many signs of it. Even as we enter 2026 unemployment rate’s gonna probably keep drifting up ’cause we’re not keeping job creation’s, not keeping up with, you know, people coming into the, into the labor market and, and that what’s, I think the puzzle right now is that hiring has been very low. But what we’ve seen in terms of consumer spending, business investment, so the kind of the big pieces of GDP, they’ve really held up pretty well, so. Business. It’s not, again, not that recession of the customers have disappeared. And so we’re not hiring, or we may even be firing workers. The customers are there for the businesses, but they’re choosing in this environment not to add, uh, to their payrolls. And that’s slowly pushing up down point rate. Yeah. Um, you know, it, it’s interesting what you’re, you’re talking about, but essentially you’re, people aren’t getting fired. They’re just, when they retire or leave, they’re just not replacing those. Individuals, you know, makes me think a little bit about what’s going on in the big, you know, in the tech push with artificial intelligence and that kind of thing, and increased in efficiency. Certainly you see that in the larger companies like Amazon and all that, where they’re just becoming massively more productive and cutting expenses essentially by, you know, using tech. Do you think that this is sort of an early indication, potentially of that kind of movement? So it. It’s possible, but I think we’re at the very front end of AI disrupting the labor market. This low hiring rate that we’ve talked about. You see this across all kinds of industries, including ones that don’t show high levels of AI adoption, and frankly, a AI adoption is pretty low. I mean, there are some sectors like tech and increasingly finance and some professional services have higher adoption rates. Uh, but in terms of it being able to explain the low hiring. I think it’s pretty tough ’cause the low hiring is such a, such a broad based, um, phenomenon. Now, AI might be, I think, indirectly contributing in that one of, one of the hypotheses about why, um, businesses have been, uh, not hiring despite, you know, economic activity. Continuing to push ahead could be that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Now there is a long list that we could draw of, of factors that might be causing businesses to be uncertain and hesitant to add to their payrolls. Uh, a lot of times you talk about things with tariffs or, you know, economic policy, regulations changing, you know, so there’s a lot going on there. But it could also be, there’s a lot of uncertainty about what this technology means for the future. Maybe you don’t need to bring on more workers because your ability to kind of use and adapt this technologies coming online. And so like that could be part of it. I think there’s another piece, you know, we have a lot of discussion about ai, but I do think that there’s, there could be a, a technology angle to this that’s, that is. Not in the AI technologies, but maybe just some of the more basic kind of automation is again, right after, you know, the, the pandemic recession as we came out of a, you know, very rapid recovery, uh, there was, there was a lot of hiring or that, ’cause businesses had done a lot of firing and they needed to bring back workers really rapidly and we actually had a period of labor shortages. There were workers moving around a lot and there were, that also put a lot of pressure on some employers, particularly in service sector, to automate more ’cause they just couldn’t get the workers, so they needed to bring technology. Online to help, you know, fill the gap. And over time, you know, businesses though, they haven’t done as much hiring, they have been firing. So the workers, they have longer tenures, have more experience, they’re probably more productive. So maybe businesses can kind of, you know, get away with not doing more hiring. ’cause the people they have there can kind of keep up with it. Um, and they’ve done some more automation. I don’t think those are sustainable. I think we’re going to need to see hiring pickup in terms of, of staying with, um, you know, as expanding, uh, demand from customers. But I won’t pretend to know what AI means for the future of the labor force. Right. So like there could be, I think that’s a big conversation about we’re headed, where we’re headed. I think it’s probably a pretty small slice of explaining. Where we’re at right now. You know, it’s interesting because obviously there was a lot of concerns about rising inflation, and particularly in the context of, you know, tariffs and, and among those types of things that were, were, um, coming down the pipe. And as it turns out, inflation seems to be coming down. How do you explain that from where you sit? Because it, it, it seems sort of to contradict a lot of what, you know, many economists believe to be likely. So when thinking about the effects of tariffs on inflation and this, this idea that it didn’t end up being as much of a factors we had really feared, uh, you know, a year ago. I think there’s a few things to keep in mind. One, the announced tariffs, uh. Didn’t come to pass fully. Right? So there’s a big difference between some of the, the, the initial announcements, whether it was on Liberation Day, April 2nd, or the initial kind of retaliation tit for tat with China, where we ended up with some triple digit, uh, tariff numbers. Those didn’t end up being where we, we ended now tariff, the effect of tariff rate. Is much higher than it was before. Right. Uh, president Trump came into office for the second time, so like, I don’t wanna minimize the, the, the increase in tariffs and the US government collected about $200 billion last year in, in additional tariffs. But there is a, there’s a good bit of daylight between what was announced and where we actually ended up. Businesses also proved very capable of trying to avoid those tariffs and not in like a. Illegal kind of way of avoiding them, but, but using inventories like trying to get ahead of them. We know the tariffs are tariffs. There’s been some evidence that, that it’s businesses are gonna start passing on the tariff cost increase when it’s actually tied to the inventories that they’re putting out in front of customers. And for some of our goods, like say apparel or things that have long seasons or come from, you know, all across the world, it actually takes quite a bit of time from the inventories being what actually shows up in front of customers. So there’s been the ability to. Kind of get around the tariffs ’cause they were rolling in. And so do be smart in terms of your inventories. And then it just takes time for those inventories to be, you know, um, to come down. Mm-hmm. By, there’s been several studies at this place, at this point that, that demonstrate that the, the tariffs, the cost of the tariffs is coming into the us. So the, it’s always the importer that pays the tariff, like literally writes the check to the US government. But it’s possible that the foreign producer could say, reduce their prices on what they’re, you know, paying or what they’re asking to be paid for that, uh, imported good. And then that would be a way of the foreign producer sharing the cost of the tariff. But everything that we see from the M Court data suggests that a very small fraction, probably less than 10%. Of the total tariff burden is being born by, at least at this point, born by the foreign producers. So it’s coming into the us. It’s sitting with either US businesses that are importing the goods or have the goods at some point in their, you know, in their supply chains and, and with us customers, the consumers we have, we’ve seen. I think you can really look at the inflation data. You can see the goods prices, which often are kind of a drag on inflation that they did turn around. They’re, they’re putting upward pressure on inflation. It’s not massive. It doesn’t explain all of these, you know, 200 billion in tariff costs, but then it is, it’s sitting with businesses. The effects still, it’s still just not that long enough to really understand. You know what, what the implications. It’s possible. I, I think that’s true with any, with any big policy change. Like it doesn’t happen overnight. I think that’s one thing that a lot of, a lot of economic models that, like, they’re, they’re very sensitive, right? Like as soon as a policy change happens, the models will kind of tell us something pretty dramatic in terms of adjustments. But this last year was a reminder, like when there’s, when there’s a big cost, there’s gonna be a lot of attempts to adjust around it to try to minimize that cost and then. It takes time, like in the real world, like the interactions are much more complex. You know, inventory lags all of the, like, it takes time to move its way through. So I think we’re not done with the pass through. I think we’ll probably still see more come to consumers, but businesses could decide to bear that cost. They, they could, you know, with profit margins. I mean some of, some of the inflationary environment in the pandemic did allow. There were very broad base increases in prices. You did see some companies be profitable from that because it was, there was a, you know, some of the costs were more targeted, but the, you know, the, the price increases were broad. So it could be a time where businesses see that, you know, consumers are more price sensitive now than they were in 21, 20 21, 20 22, so they’re not passing as much on it. Could be that that’s part of where. Like the cost businesses are dealing with that cost by maybe doing less hiring as opposed to passing it on to consumers. Uh, you know, they could be taking a hit with their profits. They, you know, so like, it doesn’t have to go all the way through to consumers. There are different levers that can be pulled. I do think we’ll still see some pass through in the, in probably the first half of this year, and that’s assuming that our whole tariff regime. Sit still, right? It looks like once again we might be, uh, increasing those tariffs, but, um, so yeah, I think it’s just tracing, you know, the tariffs through the system is really complicated. And one last thing I’ll say about the tariffs is they’re not just tariffs on goods that go to consumers. These tariffs have been broad enough that we’re also taring imported goods that are used by our manufacturers used for our, by our businesses in their production. So then it can take a really long time for that to end up with the, you know, the end customer could be a business to start with, and then it moves its way down. So I think these are just, you know, the costs are real. We can see the tariffs have been collected, the costs are there. We can see in the import data, there haven’t been import price data, there haven’t been a lot of adjustments by the foreign suppliers. So then it’s just a question of, we have these costs. Where did the cost go? I believe the last GEP was 4.3% and, uh, inflation was around 2.6, 2.7, or at least core. You’ve obviously, uh, worked at the Fed. Um, give us a sense of the situation that the Fed is trying to figure out here. Like what do they do with these numbers and, you know, all of the issues that surround them. The work at the Fed, I mean, it, it’s laser focused on the, the response, the mandates that the Fed has. So with maximum employment and price stability and with maximum employment, that’s not something that can be easily defined. It’s not like it’s a particular unemployment rate, it’s not a particular payroll number. But I mean, broadly speaking, it’s, you know, do, are, you know, the people who wanna work, are they working? In such a way that it’s not putting pressure on inflation, right? Like labor shortages that end up with wage increases that just, you know, end up with inflation. Like that would be a situation where the Fed would actually want to kind of help restrain some of the. Uh, employment growth. And we, we saw that in this cycle. I mean, the Fed raised rates a lot in 2022 and 2023. Uh, so that’s the maximum employment on the stable prices. The Fed has set a target of the 2%, uh, year over year PCE inflation. So a little different than the CPI inflation, but very much related. And, and it’s one, I mean, that’s, that’s the goal, right? And it, uh. So it starts with those two pieces and, and what’s been, I think what’s been challenging in say the last year as the Fed was, you know, trying to figure out what it was gonna do with interest rates was the fact that it, there was pressure on both sides of the mandate. Mm-hmm. Um, and not necessarily the, well, I mean, inflation itself has, was above the 2%. It continues to be above the 2%. Target has been. Since 2021. Now the Fed’s policy doesn’t have a look back, but I mean, they do worry that the longer inflation stays closer to three than two businesses. Consumers are gonna start to kind of embed three into their actions, their expectations. Then you kind of get stuck there. So like that, that both, you know, they were missing on the inflation mandate and there were, there were concerns that the, that we might see inflation get stuck above the mandate and the way you dislodge it if it gets stuck. Could end up risking a recession, right? So the Fed doesn’t want that to happen. So that’s a real concern. But then on the employment side, you know, we started out talking about the small rule, the rising unemployment rate. We’ve seen the unemployment rate rising. And then last year in particular, it wasn’t just the unemployment rate rising, we saw job creation just really take a leg down. Um. Some of that probably is less immigration population aging, so less supply of workers, which isn’t something the Fed would react to. ’cause that, I mean, if you don’t have as many people that wanna work, you don’t need to create as many jobs. But the unemployment rate was rising, so it’s clear, like there just wasn’t, there wasn’t enough job creation to keep up with, um, the workers who were there, uh, to work. And, and there was a concern that this could, could spiral out. Those small increased unemployment rate that, that very low level of job creation. And frankly, if you look at, I mean the, I mean, we have multiple months and probably more after revisions of declines in payroll employment. Mm-hmm. Like if you looked at the labor market data, you’d be like, aren’t we in a recession or like on the edge of one? Again, that’s not where we’re at, but it, it certainly gave that, that risk. Things could be slowing down. And, and the, the last piece that was really important in the Fed’s decisions was where, where’s the federal funds rate? Where are the interest rate, the policy interest rate they control? And it was still relatively high. For, for recent history, right. Not in the long history of the Fed, but mm-hmm. And so, like the Fed had raised, they’d raised interest rates quite aggressively to fight the inflation in 2022. They’d very gradually lowered it. Some was taken out in 2023 because made some pro, made quite a bit of progress on inflation in, or in 2024, they lowered the rates in 2025, the 75 basis points of cuts that the Fed did. It was out of concern. Of the labor market unraveling a risk, not a, not saying, hey, the labor market is unraveling, but saying the risk that the downside risk to employment are larger and more worrisome than the upside risk to inflation. So this inflation getting stuck, is that still the case as a going into 2026 here? So, you know, even, even last year we saw, we listened to Fed officials, there’s quite a bit of disagreement. Because it was a tough situation to read. There are some Fed officials that were more focused on inflation, some that were more focused on the employment side. Uh, and it really was just a matter of kind of reading the economy and trying to figure out this, a very unusual situation, like where, where was this headed? What did the Fed need to do? In the end, the consensus on the Fed was to do the rate cuts, kind of front load them. They talked a lot about it as insurance. They’re taking out insurance against the labor market deteriorating. And I think with that approach, in all likelihood, and there’s been certainly signaling of this, that when they meet at the end of January, it’ll, they’re unlikely to move again. That this is, this will be an opportunity to hold steady, be patient the Fed has, has taken out their restriction. So they don’t have the higher rates, so they’ve pulled rates down. We also know that early this year there’s various kinds of fiscal support that are coming online or tax cuts to households and to businesses that should give a little extra lift, uh, to the economy. So I think it’s a period of the Fed waiting to see what the effects of their policy changes are, seeing what the effects of the fiscal policy with the expectation this will be enough to stabilize the labor market. Even help get it back on track and really what the Fed would like. I mean, we’ll see what they get, but they’d really like the next cut to be a good news cut. Like inflation. Oh look, it’s moving back down again. We’re making clear progress back to 2%. I think that’s probably gonna take maybe even till the middle of this year to build that case. A strong case for the disinflation. Mm-hmm. But that’s, that’s what they would, would like to do. But they’re gonna keep an eye on the labor market. But nothing we’ve seen in the most recent data suggests that they gotta get moving like that. There’s some, you know, real pressure building. Um, in fact, the labor market looks a little bit better probably than when they met in December and inflation. Showing some signs of progress, but it, it’s pretty bumpy in terms of, there’s a lot of noise in the data at the moment. You mentioned, um, the Fed’s mandate and you know, certainly that’s something, um, that, uh, you know, that, that we know the Fed looks at these unemployment numbers that look at inflation. I’m curious though, that there’s, you know, there is this push and pull with the treasury. In particular, you know, looking at the amount of, of, of, of bonds that need to be refinanced, that kind of thing. I mean, presumably that’s one of the reasons why the Trump administration is pushing so hard, uh, on the Fed to reduce, um, you know, to reduce rates so that you know, this sovereign debt can be refinanced at a, something a little bit more palatable. How much of that actually. I know it’s not supposed to play a part in the Federal Reserve’s actions, but in reality is there, is there that kind of, you know, thinking that, you know, they have to, they, they may try to play ball a little bit with the, with the situation, with the debt. Yeah. There, the, the Fed is not playing ball right now with the administration. Uh, but, but there have been, there have been times in our past. So during World War II, there was an explicit cooperation between the Fed and the Treasury. The Fed kept interest rates low. Both the federal funds rates, so the short term interest rates, they also did, uh, some purchases of longer term to help keep longer term rates down. Right. So I mean, the, the Fed really, they, their policy was oriented exactly on this objective, keeping the borrowing cost of the US government low because it was financing the war effort. So, so there have been times where the Fed has cooperated with treasury. Now, when they came out of World War ii. What happened is, you know, treasury wants to keep interest rates low. This is good for, you know, the economy, good for growth, but it was, it really was creating a lot of inflationary pressures and it took until the early 1950s for the Fed to kind of regain its kind of operational independence from treasury and then go back to pursuing, you know, inflation as a key goal. And then also in the late seventies and maximum employment was added as an explicit goal. So we’re in a place now where. It’s employment, it’s inflation, it, there was quite, um, I mean, president Trump and some other officials have been, you know, very open about saying rates should be low to help with the deficit, with funding the gov. So like, it’s, it’s been in the discussion in the air. But that’s not, that’s not a mandate that Congress has given the Fed. That’s not what they’re pursuing. It does, you know, but things can change at the Fed. We’re gonna see a change in leadership this year with a new Fed chair. Um, the Fed always, I mean, Congress created the Federal Reserve. It’s changed its abilities, its responsibilities over time. I don’t wanna say that we’ll never get back to a place where the Fed thinks about. Its effect on the deficit. I mean, they’re watching it, they know, right? They’re tracking all these aspects of the economy. But in terms of what’s driving the Fed’s decisions about what the, the federal funds rate should be, that’s not part of the calculus right now. Yeah. Um, you know, another, just another question is for clarity. You know, the, the, um, officially right now there’s, there’s no quantitative easing. However, there is. Uh, you know, I’ve been reading, uh, about even, I think even today, there was a, a fair amount of liquidity, uh, being injected in by the Fed. Can you, for people who don’t understand the mechanics of this and what the difference in terminology is, can you explain to us maybe what the difference is between quantitative easing and what’s being done right now? So just as for context, where quantitative easing even came from. So if we go back to the global financial crisis in 2008, the Federal Reserve, in response to that recession, pulled the federal funds rate all the way to zero. Cut rates to zero And as sure many of us remember that that recession was a very deep and long recession. So, and the unemployment rate was, you know, 10% and inflation was not a problem. So the, the Fed would want in that environment to do more to support the economy. But when the federal funds rate is at zero, that’s, its, that has been its primary tool. Well, that’s, that’s. Stepped out. So then as a question of, well, what else could we do to help support the economy? And, and there, there were. Different possibilities. Uh, some European central banks looked at, you know, they actually did negative interest rates or tried to pull their policy rates, and that’s not what the US did. What was done was to do purchases of, uh, treasuries. Uh, there’s also been purchases of mortgage backed securities, and this is where the Fed is. I mean, and, and they’re creating reserves. So the fed, I guess, secretary, uh. Treasury doesn’t refer to it as magic money. Um, you know, they create reserves and then they’re going out and they’re buying tr so they’re pushing that liquidity, that demand into markets. And if you’re, if there’s a lot more demand for treasuries, well, the price of the treasuries will go up. The yield comes down. Interest rates go down. Yep. Interest rates go down. So they. They were, the Fed wanted to support the economy more. That was the tool that they used to do it. So when, when the Fed talks about quantitative easing, it’s not just the tool, the asset purchases, it’s also the intent, right? They wouldn’t do quantitative easing right now. ’cause if the Fed thought they really need to stimulate the economy more, they’ve still got like. More than three percentage points they could cut from the federal funds rate. Like if the issue were right now, we need to like get the economy going, they’re gonna like cut the funds rate and do it that way. They wouldn’t be pur like purchasing assets, purchasing treasuries to do that. But what what happened is between the global financial crisis, the Great recession, so all the asset purchases done then. There was some, some runoff of the balance sheet, but then again, in the pandemic there were a lot of asset purchases. Uh, the Fed has a really big balance sheet, and it has, uh, it, it kind of changes the way that the Fed can even just move around the federal funds rate. Like, I don’t wanna get too much into the, the technicals, but it’s, it’s just, you know, when the Fed says, well, we wanna lower the, the funds rate to 3.5%. In the old days, they could kind of do, you know, with the bank reserves and they could like, make these small purchases and it would, it would make that stick. Now with, there’s, uh, banks have a lot of reserves, so they’re not as responsive. And so just to kind of, there’s like the, the technical, the tools, the Fed has to just make it happen. In terms of operationally, it means that they have to do some purchases now and then they call their, I mean the new name they have for these are reserve management. Purchases. So it’s really about operations. It’s not about, but it does mean they’re purchasing assets. So if you’re just focused on like the Fed’s purchasing assets, they’re putting liquidity into the system. Yes, they are doing that, but it’s not with the intent to kind of push the economy to run harder. It’s just enough liquidity to keep. The federal funds rate stable at the level that they wanted to be at, to just make sure that all these operations are short in the very short term lending markets amongst banks, that it’s all kind of working as mm-hmm. As it should be. So it’s more about operations and it’s about stimulus policy. Right. A lot of our, um, a lot of our listeners are real estate owners, investors, and they’re, you know, they think about, um. Mortgage rates and that kind of thing. There was recently a, a pretty significant, well, I don’t know how significant it really was. I think it was about, was it maybe $250 billion worth of mortgage backed securities purchased by Fannie Mae. Um, that ca can you talk about the purpose of that and really the, you know, what kind of effect that would actually, we could actually expect from that. It’s certainly been, I mean it’s, it is clear. You know, we talked about one reason that the administration would want interest rates down. It’d be like financing the deficit. Right. Another reason that very much pulls into kind of the affordability debate is we want interest rates lower, one of them lower for consumers. Now the White House has put a lot of pressure on the Fed for them to lower rates even faster than they have. Has not played ball with that. But then the Fed has lowered its rates. The Feds rates are very short term rates, and the federal funds rate is like an overnight rate with between banks. Right. So it, and it has an effect on, you know. Credit card rates, short term rates, but it’s not one, it, it has an effect, but it’s really not like driving necessarily 30 year mortgage rates or you know, some of the longer term rates. There’s a lot of other factors that go into that, and so in this kind of, you know, push for lower mortgage rates. Pushing on the Fed is not the only lever to pull, right? The administration has other levers that they could potentially pull, um, in trying to influence mortgage rates. Now, there, I’d argue the administration’s tools here, like the, the $200 billion, Fannie and Freddie purchase that you mentioned. That really is about trying to reduce the spread. Between mortgages and treasuries. So in some ways it sounds similar, like, oh, fed and Franny, which are, you know, GSEs. So part, part of the, you know, government right now, at least they were privatized during the global financial crisis. You think, oh, they’re going out and purchasing this Sounds a lot like the Fed going out and purchasing. There are there, there’s some parallels, but we need to remember, Fannie and Freddie don’t create money. The Fed, when they start, when they start the process of their quantitative easing, they’re creating reserves like they’re actually creating liquidity and money supply. Fannie and Freddie have authorization to be able to make these purchases, but they’re not like the fed. They’re not creating reserves, but they can, so I don’t wanna think about them like bringing down the whole set of interest rates, but they can affect this spread between mortgages and say treasuries. Right? And so, because again, if you’re, if the. If the GSEs are going out, they’re purchasing mortgage backed securities, well that’s increasing demand for those, and that can push down the rates, that can like squeeze that spread. And, and while the announcement has been made, you know, I mean they’re, they’re in the early stages of putting that in place, but we even on the announcements, saw a response in financial markets and you’re seeing some movement down, uh, in mortgage rates now. It was. Pretty modest, right? And, and 200 billion while, you know, not nothing, uh, really pales in comparison to like the scale of say, the quantitative easing that the Fed did. Um, and there are probably other, but the, you know, the administration’s not done. It doesn’t necessarily have to be that Fannie and Freddie do more purchases. The the spread between mortgage rates and treasuries is pretty substantial. There’s other places where, you know, the fees that go into getting a mortgage are quite a bit larger than they were before the, the global financial crisis. So maybe they go in and try to chip away at the fees and, you know, so there’s, there’s different levers. And I fully expect, and I think we’re gonna get some announcements here again soon on the White Houses. Housing affordability agenda. So there may be other, other ways that they’re trying to, uh, influence, uh, the mortgage spreads. But that’s, that’s what that is all about. And it, it should have, and it looks like, you know, it’s having some effect in terms of bringing rates down, but it likely, it’d be modest, like in the 10 basis points, maybe 20 if they ramp up the program some. But like, it, you know, it’s, it, it, you know, every, every bit counts. But this is not a. Uh, this won’t be enough to, you know, move rates down, dramatic mortgage rates down dramatically, uh, when you, when you look at the economy. Um, and I, I, I think just, you know, one last question. I mean, I just in terms of, you know, the people listening to this are. They’re, they’re people, you know, with jobs and who are trying to invest their money, and they’re trying to, you know, build long-term wealth, but they’re, you know, everybody’s worried about what’s happening with the economy. What, what, what do you think, like, just as, um, um, you know, perspective for people to understand or try to have some framework for how to look at what’s going on in the economy. How they should judge it. Like what would you suggest, like just for mom and pop investors trying to, what is happening with the economy? I’m not an economist. What, what are the, what are the things that you think they should consider studying up on, looking into a little bit? One challenge for a lot of investors, I mean, frankly, it’s, it’s been a challenge that I try to deal with too. Uh, we’re, we’re in an environment where there’s just. There’s so much news coming out of DC uh, with the White House and policies and the Fed, and you know, I mean, like, there’s just, there’s a lot. The headlines are big. And like I talked about with the tariffs, we had like really big tariff announcements. The really scary numbers were, and then it like dialed back and then we pushed through it and it’s like, and it’s this remembering that, um. There’s always a tendency to have this idea that the, the president really runs the economy. I mean, that’s not just about this administration. That’s like a longstanding, you know, the president gets, uh, blame or credit for the economy when really, right. Like we have a over 33, $30 trillion economy, hundreds of millions of workers, tens of millions of businesses. Like this is not about one administration. And so we always need to be careful about. Putting too much weight on the policies coming out of dc. Uh, and you know, last year if you really just listened to all the, you know, we’re cutting immigration, we’re raising tariffs, we’re doing, you know, all, there’s a lot of uncertainty in Doge. Well then you might have missed, like, there’s a bunch of AI investment happening and we’ve got a lot of growth in the economy and while consumers are still pretty resilient, so you, it’s kind of like. Tuning down the volume, some coming out of Washington, especially the like every twist and turn. Uh, and then kind of focusing in on the fundamentals. I will say, you know, you don’t wanna turn down DC too far because we, we do have some like big picture events that could play out over many years. Right. So kind of keeping an eye on it, but for the long game. As opposed to reacting to every twist and turn, every policy announcement, because a lot of this clearly is more of a negotiation than it is like, we’re gonna actually do this. So, you know, as investors, you don’t wanna get whipped around by the latest headline, but you also can’t put your head in the sand. Like you gotta kind of try and find a way to pull the signal out of the noise. And it is really. It’s really hard. Yeah. Like this has been a challenging time and the, the US economy’s been doing things that are not typical. We talked about some of the things with the labor market and we are running some policy experiments that haven’t been run in a long time, so things could change pretty dramatically. But I think it’s just trying to absorb the information, not get too wound up about it, but like also keep an eye on like what’s good for long-term growth. Yeah. Because it’s good for long-term productivity. Thank you so much Dr. Sahm. It’s uh, it’s been a pleasure talking to you on, uh, wealth Formula Podcast today. Great. Thank you so much. You make a lot of money but are still worried about retirement. Maybe you didn’t start earning until your thirties. Now you’re trying to catch up. Meanwhile, you’ve got a mortgage, a private school to pay for, and you feel like you’re getting further and further behind. Now, good news, if you need to catch up on retirement, check out a program put out by some of the oldest and most prestigious life insurance companies in the world. It’s called Wealth Accelerator, and it can help you amplify your returns quickly, protect your money from creditors, and provide financial protection to your family if something happens to you. The concept. Here are used by some of the wealthiest families in the world, and there’s no reason why they can’t be used by you. Check it out for yourself by going to wealthformulabanking.com. Welcome back to the show everyone. Hope you enjoyed it. It was Claudia Sahm. She is, uh, she’s a very, very smart lady. And, uh, just a reminder, if you have not done so, uh, I, I don’t frequently ask to do, do this, but, uh, make sure you give the show. Five stars and a positive review because that’s how we’re getting, you know, really high quality people like Claudia on the show, I’ve been around for a long time. It helps that the show is, you know, like over a decade old and all that stuff too. But, uh, anything you can do to support would be very helpful. And also one more reminder, uh, if you have not done so and you weren’t a credit investor, make sure you sign up for that investor club. At Wealth formula.com. That’s it for me. This week on Wealth Formula Podcast. This is about Joffrey signing out. If you wanna learn more, you can now get free access to our in-depth personal finance course featuring industry leaders like Tom Wheelwright and Ken m. Visit wealthformularoadmap.com.

This week, I'm joined by Brian Moates, Chief Experience Officer at Our Farms, a growing marketplace and movement reshaping how we shop for food and support farmers. Brian has a fascinating background, from motorsports and marketing to building digital-first experiences for brands like Ford and Lincoln, and now he's bringing that expertise to agriculture. In this episode, we talk about how Our Farms connects local producers with consumers in a way that's scalable, human, and values-driven. Brian shares why he's passionate about storytelling, what shifted his view on food and farming, and how his own daughter's health issues led to a deeper understanding of what's really in our food. We also dive into the tech powering this shift, how Our Farms is different from traditional DTC platforms, and why small producers finally have a seat at the table. Resources & Links: Practicing the Way: Be with Jesus. Become like him. Do as he did. by John Mark Comer The Infinite Game by Simon Sinek  Unreasonable Hospitality by Will Guidara The Let Them Theory by Mel Robbins Small Giants by Bo Burlingham Join The Directory Of The West Get our FREE resource for Writing a Strong Job Description  Get our FREE resource for Making the Most of Your Internship Get our FREE resource: 10 Resume Mistakes (and how to fix them) Get our FREE resource: How to Avoid the 7 Biggest Hiring Mistakes Employers Make Email us at hello@ofthewest.co Subscribe to Of The West's ⁠Newsletters List your jobs on ⁠Of The West Connect with Brian: Follow on Instagram @ourfarms Visit Our Farms website Connect with Jessie: Follow on Instagram @ofthewest.co and @mrsjjarv Follow on Facebook @jobsofthewest Check out the Of The West website Be sure to subscribe/follow the show so you never miss an episode!  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Send Jackie A Message!Another Pilates studio just opened down the street. Another yoga space launched with “expert teachers” and a “welcoming community.” And suddenly, referrals feel slower, growth feels harder, and you're wondering what actually makes a studio stand out anymore.In this episode, Jackie Murphy breaks down exactly how one Pilates studio generated $81,605 in revenue over a single Black Friday weekend—and why it had nothing to do with luck, hustle, or having “better teachers.”You'll learn why the old boutique fitness playbook (word-of-mouth and hoping people find you) no longer works, how omni-channel marketing and paid ads now drive growth, and why changing less and repeating what works is the real path to sustainable profit.Jackie walks you through the strategy behind the sale: waitlists, consistent messaging across every platform, ads that supported (not replaced) organic marketing, and why a $226 ad spend produced a 359x return.If competition feels intimidating right now, this episode will show you how to stop reacting—and start leading.Timestamped Outline[00:00] Why competition feels louder in 2026[02:30] The $81,605 Black Friday case study[05:30] Change less, evaluate more, repeat[07:30] Omni-channel marketing explained[10:00] Why Black Friday doesn't start on Black Friday[12:30] Email + SMS + ads working together[15:00] The $226 ad spend breakdown (359x ROAS)[18:00] Why ads work better when they support organic[21:00] Long-term nurturing vs short-term sales[24:00] Setting big goals without attaching fear[27:00] Why this is possible for your studio tooKey Takeaways Competition isn't the problem—unclear messaging is“Great teachers” is not a differentiator anymoreSustainable profit comes from repeating proven campaignsOmni-channel marketing makes buying easierAds amplify what's already working organicallyYou don't need a massive ad budget to get massive resultsLong-term trust builds high-ticket sales like annual membershipsPull Quotes“Change less. Evaluate more. Repeat.”“Black Friday doesn't start on Black Friday.”“Ads don't replace organic marketing—they support it.”“People don't buy the first time they see something.”“You don't need hustle. You need a plan.”FAQ (AEO-Optimized)Why doesn't word-of-mouth work like it used to for yoga studios? Because the industry is more saturated. Consumers have more options and need clearer messaging to choose.Do yoga and Pilates studios really need paid ads now? Yes—organic marketing alone no longer reaches enough people. Ads help amplify what's already working.How much should studios spend on ads for campaigns like Black Friday? There's no one number, but this case study shows that even low ad spend can produce high returns when paired with strong messaging.Is Black Friday still worth it for boutique studios? Yes—when it's planned in advance, supported by trust, and aligned with your long-term strategy.What makes a Black Friday sale successful?Work with Jackie Murphy Say Hi on Instagram @studioceoofficial 3 Marketing Mistakes Yoga & Pilates Business Owners Make: https://www.jackiegmurphy.com/3-marketing-mistakes Join The Studio CEO Program: https://www.jackiegmurphy.com/studioceo

Jeff and Christina are out of pocket this week, so Erin Dawson heroically steps in to keep the show afloat during trying times. Life, religion, dating, blogging… an everything bagel of a show. Sponsor Copilot Money can help you take control of your finances. Get a fresh start with your money for 2026 with 2 months free when you visit try.copilot.money/overtired. Chapters 00:00 Erin 00:04 Introduction and Guest Introduction 00:44 Siri Mishap and Water Troubles 05:20 Mental Health and Daily Struggles 11:00 Physical Health and Exercise Challenges 18:45 Productivity Tools and Sponsor Message 21:57 Sponsor Break: Copilot Money 23:59 On Aging 24:53 Vision and Aging 26:55 Intelligent Design and Evolution Debate 28:58 Blogging and Social Media Verification 29:13 The Cost of Verification 30:18 Embracing the Content Game 33:12 Exploring Blogging Platforms 48:10 The Decline of Blogging 50:54 Navigating Employment and Content Creation 55:54 The Art of Dating and Bits 58:30 Wrapping Up and Final Thoughts Show Links Gestimer In Your Face Ghost Join the Conversation Merch Come chat on Discord! Twitter/ovrtrd Instagram/ovrtrd Youtube Get the Newsletter Thanks! You’re downloading today’s show from CacheFly’s network BackBeat Media Podcast Network Check out more episodes at overtiredpod.com and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your favorite podcast app. Find Brett as @ttscoff, Christina as @film_girl, Jeff as @jsguntzel, and follow Overtired at @ovrtrd on Twitter. Transcript Erin [00:00:00] Introduction and Guest Introduction Brett: Hey, welcome to Overtired. It’s me, Brett Terpstra. Um, Christina and Jeff are both out this week, but I have Erin Dawson here to fill the void. Hi, Erin. How you doing? Erin: Hi Brett. I’m well. How are you? Brett: I’m, I’m, I’m okay. So before, like, for people that haven’t tuned in with an episode with you before, give your, give yourself a brief introduction. Erin: Hey folks, my name is Erin. I, uh, make art under the name Genital Shame. I’m based in Los Angeles, California, and I used to work with Brett Terpstra. Siri Mishap and Water Troubles Erin: I’m doing, I’m doing, uh, you know, that broadcast voice, but I’ve started to. When I’m using CarPlay, I’ve started to speak to Siri in my own Siri kind of as a bit, but I really enjoy doing it.[00:01:00] Hey Siri, play REM. Oh shit. It just, I shouldn’t have done that. I’m so sorry. That activated mine. Um, oh no. And now my home pods are doing it. Can you hear that? Brett: I can Erin: I literally have to turn that off now. I really apologize. Ready? Brett: we’ll wait. Erin: Anyways, that’s, this is a shit show. Okay. I’m turning it off. Uh, that’s who I am. I’m someone who activates, um, the, the dingus. Brett: activates digital assistance. That’s amazing. Um, so update on me. I got water back after four and a half days with no running water. Um, but now I’m showering and washing dishes like a pro. Erin: Oh my God, I’m so that, that truly sounds horrific. Brett: It was, you don’t realize exactly how much of your life [00:02:00] revolves around just running water. Um, it’s true of like anything, when your power goes out, when your internet goes out, when your water goes out. We’ve had all of those things happen frequently over the last year. Um, and you, you realize exactly like how handicapped you are without these kind of. The modern conveniences we take for granted? Erin: Did your pipes break? Brett: No, uh, they did freeze. Uh, the solution to the water problem was heat lamps on the well pump. On the on the pipe, the underground pipe that goes from the well pump into the house is about a foot underground, and that’s where the freeze happened. So we had heat lamps on the ground for two days while we were waiting for a plumber to show up. We just decided to try heating things up and after two days it finally creaked [00:03:00] into life, and then we ran a bunch of water and got it all cleared out. And then you Erin: have a TLC show. Now you’re Brett: you know, Erin: solving Pioneer Living. Uh, Brett: You know what happened because of that, to flush the toilet while that was happening, we were melting snow on the stove and on the fireplace and dumping it into the toilet. But when I first started, I didn’t know you could just dump like a gallon and a half of water into the bowl and it would flush. So I was filling the tank up, which takes about twice as much water. And because I was doing that, I was putting a bunch of silt from the snow. Into the tank. So the little, the rim holes around the inside of the rim of the toilet where the water swirls in those filled up with silt. So once we got running water again, the toilet wouldn’t flush all the way. And I had to go in with a coat hanger and try to clean out all of those holes in the toilet. And I got it [00:04:00] clean and it flushed all the way twice and now it’s. Stuck again because I’m just pushing shit in with the coat hanger. And the silt Erin: by shit you mean you mean silt. Brett: silt? Yes. The, the, the silt is still there and as the water runs it just fills the holes again. And I don’t yet know how to fix that, so that’s gonna be a thing. That’s what I’m doing after this. ’cause, uh, the toilet. It sounds like it flushes all the way, but then you leave and the next person comes in and says, oh my God, why didn’t you flush? Because you know there’s floaters in the toilet. Erin: I. Just watched a Todd Salons movie and, and there is a scene in which, um, a character is, is being sort of abused by her family and the abusive family says, we’re laughing with you, not at you. And she [00:05:00] says, but I’m not laughing. You know, and I apologize. I don’t mean to laugh, but that, that sounds truly horrific. Brett: Yeah, that, Erin: I mean, the shower alone, I, I don’t know about you. I use showers to process, Brett: sure. Erin: you know, showers and walks. That’s where I do it most. Mental Health and Daily Struggles Erin: And like I, yeah, I need it to, this is a very 2019 way to frame mental health, which we can pivot to. Um, but I use it to regulate. Do you remember when we used to say, I feel unregulated? We don’t say that anymore. Brett: I do remember. That was a while ago. Erin: Yeah, it’s 2019 to me, but it maybe had a shelf life beyond that. I don’t know. Brett: Yeah. Erin: but yeah, I use showers to regulate. So even if you’re kind of like me, I, my heart goes out to you that that is really not just inconvenient, but like bad for your mental health. Brett: Your quote reminded me [00:06:00] of an and or quote that’s been going around where it, it’s so, uh, I can’t remember who, but someone says, uh, if you’re doing nothing wrong, what do you have to fear? And the response is, I fear your definition of wrong. Erin: Mm. Brett: I’m like, yeah, nope, that, uh, that’s very apropos to the current situation in Minnesota. Um, but yeah, let’s do mental health. Tell me about your mental health. Erin: Yeah. Uh, I’ve seen better days have been the star of many plays. Do you remember that song, Brett? Brett: No, I don’t know what you’re talking about. Erin: All right, cool. Um, I don’t believe in resolutions because I, I went to college, but, but I do believe in the power of January as a moment of. [00:07:00] Intentional reflection and yeah, goal setting, which can be different than resolutions. And for this January, January, 2026, I put a lot of pressure on myself to sort of remake my physical life, which I hoped would have knock on effects for my mental life. So what’s that mean for me? Every year for the last three or four years, I have done dry January dj, and in the past, the keto diet has worked well for me. So I thought in January that I would, with, with these powers combined, I would become, you know, a superhuman. I’m like 20, 26. I’m getting really, I’m gonna get really hot. And I’m going to [00:08:00] be very critical about the role that alcohol plays in my life. And what had happened was, without getting too much into it, I had a bad first week and it kind of snowballed, reverse snowballs. How does a snowball, what is it? I don’t know. It just got a lot of your, your, your toilet silt in it. Yeah. And, um, and I had no release valves for dopamine. Um, because on keto you’re not eating bread. You are not having sugar. I wasn’t having any alcohol. Um, also, and, and I’ll, I’ll shut up about this in a second. I have a foot injury. A right foot injury, something called turf toe, not TERF, but TURF. [00:09:00] Um, it’s basically what happens if you kind of stove your big toe. There’s a in the ball of your foot that’s like a repetitive stress injury. I’m not a p uh, podiatrist, but that’s, that’s my beat. Very basic understanding. And so what does all this mean? That mean this means that it was like a perfect storm of like. I can’t exercise and I exercise is really, plays a really huge role in my mental health. I am in two different basketball leagues, you know, uh, I take a lot of walks. I’m a runner. Couldn’t do any of that. And I couldn’t have Alfredo and I couldn’t have fornet. And so no wonder. And in hindsight with therapy, I’m like, yeah, no wonder I, I just didn’t have any release valves, um, for joy. So in the third week I’m like, fuck [00:10:00] it, I am gonna have fries and I’m going to have a tiki drink. And I don’t regret doing that, but I fear. That, and I think, I think you have this too, Brett, the like, puritan guilt, complex guilt for just like not organizing a particular corner of your fridge correctly, just like that level will give me, be like, oh man, I, I really do suck. Huh. Um, so that scales, you know, that feeling and that complex scales and so it’s easy for me to be like, man, I have no integrity. Huh? I really just. When I got tough, I just, uh, which is also an unhealthy way to think about things, but, um, but I’m, I’m kind of over it now. Uh, but uh, I was pretty disappointed in myself for a while there. I still kind of am. That’s how I’m doing. Brett: Wow, that sounds, that sounds pretty rough. [00:11:00] Physical Health and Exercise Challenges Brett: I, uh, I don’t, I, so I haven’t had a drink in as long as I can remember. Um, because I have a very short memory. It’s only been a matter of months, but, um, I do, I don’t miss drinking. I miss having that release. Um, and I, my only substitute has been CBD. Which is, you know, doesn’t do jack shit. Uh, it’s like a mental game for me. Um, have a, I I I’ve switched to drinking CBDT ’cause it’s way cheaper than like CBD carbonated beverages. Um, so for like 50 cents I can have a mug of five milligrams of CBD and pretend I feel okay. Um, that’s. It’s alright. Um, I do, so my release has been consuming [00:12:00] these outshine coconut bars, which. I find a perfect blend of fatty and salty and sweet and, um, they, as of like two weeks ago, outshine has discontinued them, which had an outsized effect on my mental health. Erin: Yeah. Brett: I bought the last three boxes that were at the grocery store, and those lasted a little bit, and then I was down to two bars and I decided, I, I I would ration them. And night after night, I just looked at those bars, but I wouldn’t, ’cause if I ate one of them, that would mean I only had one left. So it’s easier for me to have two left. So I had two sitting in the fridge, and then yesterday l went to a different grocery store and I said, just on the off chance would you check. And she came home with seven [00:13:00] boxes, six to a box. So yeah, I, I got, I hugged her. They were not expecting it. I like jumped up, just effusively, Erin: What do you, I have never had even this affinity for like my favorite meal. What do you like about these bars? Brett: Oh my God. They just like, I don’t know my, they like dopamine rush, pupil, dilate. Um, Erin: D filled? Brett: no, they’re just sugar. It’s sugar and coconut. Sugar and coconut. Dairy free. Gluten-free. Like it’s a, it’s a sugary snack and. Uh, so I’ve been like my, I don’t know what happened. Uh, it somewhat coincided with my last weight gain, but not exactly. But now I can’t stand up for more than about five minutes. [00:14:00] Um, just like if I empty the dishwasher, the, the act of bending over a few times, I have to sit down and I have to recover for 10 minutes. My back just freezes up and I’ve gone through physical therapy and I have, I like push myself every time it happens. I like, without injuring myself, I try to push it and try to strengthen and nothing helps, like nothing changes at all. That combined with my dizziness, which is still a thing, means the only exercise I’m getting is like half an hour a day on a recumbent bicycle, um, which gives me leg exercise and a little bit of cardio and not much else, and it doesn’t seem to strengthen my back at all, and it doesn’t seem to help me sleep and I keep doing it because I have that guilt thing. If I don’t do anything then. I’m a piece of shit. Um, but [00:15:00] man, I, yeah, the coconut bars are like the only, the only way out. Erin: The Brett: all I’ve got. I’m working, I’m working on finding something new because seven boxes will last a while, but not forever. It’s still a finite amount. Um, Erin: of spring, maybe you Brett: yeah, no way. I eat, I eat a couple a day. Erin: Oh, okay. Brett: a once a week treat for me. Um, so, so I, I’m trying to like ration and I’m trying to find an alternative that is more healthy, not less healthy. Um, we’ll see. I’ll keep you posted. Erin: The guilt thing. I’m gonna, I’m gonna be thinking about the, uh, digital device dingus thing later, there are people for whom, you know, but wait back to the, the treats and living a treat based [00:16:00] lifestyle, which I’m really trying not to do. I’m really trying not to Brett: reinforcement. Erin: I think I, this is the second time I’m, I’m bringing up therapy, but I think I, I brought up that I live a treat based lifestyle up to my therapist and she didn’t, doesn’t love that paradigm of thinking. Um, but it’s kind of all I know. And for me, you know, given this month the treat that I have had before breaking. And now I’m in this habit, and now I’ve, I’m in a trap. I have taken two using, having heavy whipping cream in my coffee each morning. Um, and it’s like adding ice cream to coffee. And so I make my coffee and I have my heavy weapon cream, and I get my little frother that [00:17:00] looks like a vibrator. A very small vibrator, and I do vibrate heavy whipping cream with my coffee in a deli container. And that, unfortunately, I, I’ve tried going back to black coffee, which is my norm. Can’t do it now. I, I really, I’m trapped and unfortunately that is the height, that is the best part of my day. Brett: Do, do Erin: coffee. Brett: I have a suggestion? Um, have you ever tried barista blend oat milk? Erin: I don’t do oat milk. I’ll just say it. Brett: Okay. Erin: Yeah. Brett: It’s all I do. I, I like for me, whatever milk I’m used to is the milk. That’s good. Um, and like I got used to soy milk and everything else tasted crappy. And I got used to almond milk and then I finally like switched to oat milk, got used to that. And [00:18:00] now every other milk tastes terrible. But once Erin: Yeah. Brett: I switched to oat milk, I no longer could like make a good, um, like latte. And I like, it didn’t, uh, it didn’t foam at all. But then I found Barista Blend from C Calisa Farms, and it’s like a full fat oat Erin: Oh Brett: for as much fat as you can get out of oats. And it, it, it fros. You can put it in a steamer and get a nice big frothy latte out of it. Um, but just a suggestion. I can’t do the heavy cream, or I probably would just by lactose intolerance and Erin: Yeah. Brett: lactose allergy. Productivity Tools and Sponsor Message Erin: We talked about, I’m gonna try to combine two topics right now. We talked about Gude and you also suggested before we started recording that I stop you at a half hour [00:19:00] for the A read. We’re not quite there, but as soon as you said that, I pulled down on my. Menu bar, a little app called Just Timer. Brett: I love that app. Erin: Do you Brett: yes. Erin: I, I have, I do have not upgraded to the sequel. Just Timer two, I think it’s Brett: I haven’t tried that. Erin: I think I, I think I tr I did a trial Brett: It’s just such a good idea. Erin: it’s great. And so. have about nine minutes before you’re requested, but I, I just wanted to, I guess, shout out Jess Heimer because it rules. Brett: Yeah. No, it’s such, it’s so for anyone who hasn’t used it, it’s just a way to like, it’s almost like pulling a cord. To set a timer, and it’s just this simple, like you reach up to your menu bar and you just pull down and you pull down the amount you want and you let go and you’ve got a [00:20:00] timer running and it’ll remind you in that amount of time Erin: The main use case I had for that when we worked for the Borg together on the Borg team, was using text expander to, you know, if we had a meeting at three o’clock, I would pull it down for 2 55 and type. MTNG, and that would create a, a string that just says meeting in five exclamation mark. Um, it’s just, it’s just a great time saver and, and keeps you honest and yeah, it’s a great app. Brett: I, uh, I’ve written a lot of command line utilities, so I can like, just on the command line, I can just type, remind me five minutes and then a string, whatever to do, and it runs in the background and it uses like terminal notifier, whatever’s handy at the time to like pop up a reminder. But I kind of gave that up. So now I use just timer. And have you seen in your face. Erin: I don’t know in your [00:21:00] face. Brett: In your face ties into your calendar. You tell it to go off, say five minutes or one minute, or on the time, and anytime an event happens, it blocks out your screen. Pops up a little dialogue telling you what you’re supposed to be doing at that minute and you have to like say, join call or dismiss. And, um, ’cause I, I miss notifications all the time. And when we were working for the board, I would just completely miss meetings because I’d get into coding. I wouldn’t notice the little. Things in the corner, I’d be focused on code and I’d look up two hours later and be like, oh God, I gotta text someone. Sorry I missed the meeting. So in your face stops me from working and like, takes over the screen. Erin: That Brett: So those are, that was our gratitude. I’m gonna do a, a quick sponsor read. Sponsor Break: Copilot Money Brett: This episode is brought to you by [00:22:00] copilot money. Copi copilot money is not just another finance app. It’s your personal finance partner designed to help you feel clear, calm, and in control of your money. Whether it’s tracking your spending, saving for specific goals, or simply getting a handle on your investments. Copilot money has you covered as we enter the New year. Clarity and control over our finances have never been more important with the recent shutdown of mint and rising financial stress for many. Consumers are looking for a modern, trustworthy tool to help navigate their financial journeys. 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Download copilot money on your devices or visit, try. Do copilot domo slash Overtired today to claim your two free months and embrace a more organized, stress-free approach to your finances. Try that’s, try copilot money slash Overtired. On Aging Brett: Ugh. [00:24:00] people are, people aren’t gonna know how many edits I put in that. had a rough time with that one. Erin: Reading’s hard. Brett: I’m, I’m, I’m working on my two big displays. I have two, like 27 inch high def displays, but I, I’m used, I’ve been working on my couch on my laptop for months now. Um. Like Mark II was written entirely on my couch, not, not at this fancy desk I have. Um, and on this desk everything is about three feet away from my face, and I don’t have the resolution set to deal with the fact that my eyes are slowly turning to shit, so I can barely read what’s on my screen anymore. I have to like squint and lean in, and. Vision and Aging Brett: It is so weird that I, I’m told this is just a normal thing that happens at my age, but when I try [00:25:00] to read small print on something, I can’t see it. But if I lift my glasses up and remove my glasses, everything within a foot of my face is clear as day, and that never used to be the case. But now I can see way better without my glasses than with my glasses at very close range. Which means when I wear contacts I really can’t see either. They gave me a, a special kind of contact that the eyes are interchangeable. I have different prescriptions in each eye, but it doesn’t matter which. So the contacts are kinda like universal. I don’t know how it works, but they’re supposed to give you pretty good distance and pretty good closeup while not being especially good at either. And they’re okay. Um, I can’t really, I have to squint to read street signs and I have to squint to read medication bottles and I just spend a lot more time in glasses. Now. Erin: This is one of those [00:26:00] moments where I cannot relate, but I am here Brett: Do you have 2020 vision? Erin: I believe I do. Brett: Wow. Must be nice. Erin: It is nice and I’m gonna own that. Yes, I’m privileged. Ocularly, get off my back about it. Brett: I, I wasn’t giving a shit. I’m, I’m happy for you. I had 2020 vision up until I was about Erin: 2020. Brett: 10. Erin: Oh Brett: I got glasses when I was 10. I. Erin: mm. I bet you Brett: I guess no, I did not have 2020 vision. ’cause I remember at the age of 10 when I got glasses and realized that from a distance, trees had leaves, um, I was like, oh my God, I’ve been missing out on Erin: God is real, bro. Intelligent Design and Evolution Debate Erin: You know, Christians usually, I don’t know about you, but sometimes I, I grew up [00:27:00] with this idea that like. Intelligence, intelligent design is a thing because take something as incredibly complex as the human eye. Tell me that there wasn’t a designer for that, but also like if you’re over 30, like take something as complex as like the human back. it’s not that they’re not that they’re saying that eyes don’t have quality issued degradation over time. It’s a different argument, but it’s just like also like not everything’s that intelligent. I mean, Brett: but the other part that I grew up with was that our, we aged and our eyes went bad, and our back went bad because of sin. It was all like a result of the original sin, and according to like Young Earth creationists, like every generations of humans that get farther away from Adam and Eve. Get [00:28:00] are, are in worse health. They’re, they’re genetically deteriorating, uh, Erin: they’re genetically sinful. Brett: Yeah. And it, it is. I don’t know. It took a long time to unlearn a lot of that stuff, but my dad brings Erin: evil. Brett: it’s called the watchmaker argument. Um, and my dad brings it up anytime we start talking about evolution, which I generally avoid these days, but he brings up the idea of the, the eye, the human eye. Erin: They love the human eye. Brett: I explain to him the, the process of like light sensing cells on amoebas. Erin: Our skin Brett: how, and how they developed into maybe a light sensing cell with a water sack, and then that developed into over time a retina. And like it’s not designed. Um, dad, it, Erin: Oh dad. Brett: yeah. Erin: Anyways. Blogging and Social Media Verification Erin: Can I talk to you about [00:29:00] blogging? Brett: Could you please? Erin: Well, here’s, let me set the table so I not to brag. Became Instagram verified recently. Why? Brett: Must be nice. The Cost of Verification Erin: Yeah, Brett: More privilege. Erin: the first, the eyes are now $13 a month. I don’t know, I don’t know how the bank’s, you know, letting me spend all this, but, um, I did it because, as I said at the top, when the REM may have been drowning me out, I don’t know. Um, I make music under the name Genital Shame and. Over time, as my account has grown on that particular platform, I have had other people alert. I’ve had followers alert me that there’s a new genital shame that just popped up in their feed asking for, Hey, my account was just hacked. [00:30:00] Like, can you help? You know? And I just thought that like for $13 a month, you know Brett: That’s how they get you. Erin: That’s fine. Yeah, get me. I’ve, they already, they already got me. Um, unfortunately, Brett: Zuckerberg that cloned your account. Erin: I got sucked. Embracing the Content Game Erin: So I, so now that I’m verified, I’m, I’m kind of leaning into playing the stupid content game, which is this, which is how, here’s how I think about it. I believe in my art. I believe in what general shame is and I want the maximum amount of people to experience it. The maximum amount of people are in the primary world, which is to say the digital world and the folks with who would resonate with general shame the most are on a platform called Instagram. So it makes sense [00:31:00] for me to play the game, which is like get the. Aforementioned eyeballs on my stuff. ’cause again, I believe in it. So I’ll do whatever it takes. Inc. Like we live in the world of Caesar. We own to Caesar. What a Caesar, in this case, Zuckerberg is Caesar, whatever. So one of my January projects, you know the, the Capital G. Capital M, good month that I was supposed to have was to block out some ugh content. To record some videos, right? Some reels of me playing Bach, of me playing, um, my favorite carcass riff or whatever. And so I found myself writing little essays about each of these things. You know, for the Bach one, there’s, I started writing about how, you know, I don’t believe in God anymore really, but [00:32:00] if I was to cite one thing that gets me. Close to it, it would be Bach like. I’m not predictable like it is. It resonates with me so fundamentally and so deeply that like that is the one thing. And I ended up writing way more than can probably fit within an Instagram comment. And then I got bit by the bug, which is like, do I, should I? Extend this to a platform that is more appropriate for long form writing. So then I’m like, okay, Erin, be realistic about starting projects that you don’t finish or won’t be consistent with. So for me, I’m defining that as one blog per month seems reasonable enough. I don’t know, but I really, I’m a writer. When we were part of the [00:33:00] Borg, you know, we were writers partially, and I found that writing alongside these stupid reels was really satisfying. Exploring Blogging Platforms Erin: So then I’m like, okay, what in 2026, what levers do I have to pull? For this type of platform. We got Ghost, we got Tumblr kind of making it a comeback. We’ve got Substack, which has shitty politics. Um, I could do something on my GitHub pages or something if I wanted to, but I. Don’t know. I don’t know how to make this decision. This is, I, I’m just bringing this up as a topic. I don’t have anything further than that. I think you may have mentioned a platform that you like, but I just thought it might be interesting to talk about. Probably Brett: No, there are, there are a lot of options. I personally. Have gone the way of static site [00:34:00] generators like GitHub pages would be, um, and will probably never go back to anything that’s based on a database or requires an online subscription. Um, I just pay a few bucks a month for a shared host and our sync, my blog to it, um, which is a super nerdy way to blog. Um, but ultimately you get. A, a folder full of markdown files that you can do anything you want with, and you can turn it into a book. You could turn it into a searchable database in obsidian. Um, you could load it up in NB ultra and have full text, rapid search, and all these things that you can’t really do with something like WordPress or Ghost. Um, WordPress is still the heavyweight. as much as it’s kind of a beast and I don’t enjoy using it, um, but ghost, [00:35:00] I just, so I’ll tell you why I bring this up in a second. But, um, ghost seems like maybe the best intermediate option. Um, I, I don’t like blogger. I don’t like Google. Um, I don’t have a lot of faith in Tumblr. be, uh, to have longevity. That’s the other thing about a static site is. I am in full control, and if I want to sunset it at any point, I just cancel the domain. But as long as I have a web server, I have a website, and I’m not dependent on any service that, you know, showed up and failed to make a profit and then terminated, as we’ve seen multiple platforms do, um, or, or turn into like a heavily paywall system that is geared like medium. Substack where [00:36:00] ultimately it’s supposed to be a moneymaking endeavor for the writers and like I use my blog as a marketing tool, but I don’t expect a lot of people to pay to read my blog. That said, I am pay walling some content these days, um, just to get people to pitch in a few bucks a month because. I never got into Patreon or anything, but I’m building this tool. This is a side note. Um, I showed you the icon for it the other day, but I didn’t show you the tool. Um, it’s called blog book. And right now it works perfectly with WordPress, but I, this morning I’ve been working on adding Micro blog, which is another good option. Um, and it might, micro blog might actually be kind of, no, it’s not, it’s got like a 300 character limit for most posts. But, um, anyway, uh, [00:37:00] micro Blog and Ghost. I’m adding so that if you’ve had a blog for a couple years and you want some kind of hard copy. This app will pull in all of those posts, let you Filch them by author or by tag or category or a date range, and it’ll generate a markdown book for you. And you can load that up in Mark three, and you can create an eub that you could go sell if you Erin: Oh wow. Brett: Um, you could turn it into like a PDF for distribution or just for your own archiving. Um. I may add more platforms to it over time. Medium killed their API. Um, so I can’t, as much as I would love to have it work for Medium, I think it would be really useful for medium authors. Um, medium made that impossible, but, um, but yeah, I actually, I built that app in about a week and I’m gonna sell [00:38:00] it on the app store as kind of a companion to Mark three. Um, as like a one-time purchase, not a subscription. Um, but yeah, I, I love blogging and I love blogs. I’ve been blogging for 30 years and I, I don’t know what I would do for expression, ’cause I’m not, I, I, I use Mastodon and that’s about it for social media. Um, I still have, uh, uh. Instagram account and I log on and I, I love seeing your, your older reels where you would just like, just fuck around with a cord or a simple progression and the face you would make when you messed up. I love that. Erin: I’ve never messed up. I don’t know what you’re talking about. Brett: I would watch just to see you make that like grossed out face. Like, what the fuck sound was that? Um, um, [00:39:00] but. Yeah, I, social media is so ephemeral though. It’s, there’s no guarantee of your post being anything other than AI fodder and like, I left x, I left Twitter. Erin: Everything app. Brett: Yes. Um, completely deleted myself there. Um, deleted myself on threads. I still have a Facebook account. Um, Facebook and Blue Sky are actually surprisingly my political activity accounts. Um, Facebook is where I complain about billionaire. Um, about Zuckerberg’s and the what not. Um, and it’s where I share with my activist friends in the area, like it’s mostly for local people. And then Blue Sky is where I get like all my anarchists. News and all of the news right now from like the [00:40:00] front in Minneapolis, the people that are out there doing direct action and, and uh, mutual aid and seeing things live as they happen. And I never appreciated blue sky until the federal occupation of Minnesota and then suddenly it became my primary news source. Um, so Erin: pretty good for that. There’s a, there’s a journalist I follow there. I think she’s pretty, like the, the, the trans beat is her beat. Erin Reed. Um, she’s really great. Um, but you’re, you’re all, all that to say, I think blue sky functions really well. Yeah. As like a, a new, like, I canceled, I canceled my New York Times subscription, um, because god damn, Brett: Yeah. Erin: just their opinion section alone is just trash. Also, yesterday, um, you know, the time of this recording was, there was a protest in March yesterday, which very cool. I also. Canceled. The, [00:41:00] another, another dimension of that day was about, you know, anti consumption, not spending anything, not buying anything, and canceling subscriptions if you can. And yesterday I did cancel my prime subscription, which was hard to do. But, you know, I did, I and I, I was thinking about this a couple months ago before moving, but I was like, you know, I’m gonna move. I’m only human. Like the two day shipping thing is going to come in handy for real. Like ordering things to the new apartment knowing that it’ll get there. You know, I’m glad I did that. That’s cool. But like, now’s the time where I’m a little more settled and I can do that. And so I did that yesterday. Um, but anyways, blue sky’s cool for political stuff. Brett: I. I have been trying to cut Amazon out. I removed Alexa from my life entirely. Um, I had it, Alexa is a good [00:42:00] cheap solution for like whole home automation. Um, so, but I replaced that with home pods and, um, I only buy from Amazon if I absolutely can’t find something somewhere else. Um, because these days, because of competition with Amazon, almost every vendor will offer free shipping. Not always two day shipping ’cause they don’t have the infrastructure for that. Um, but, uh, but I’ll get free shipping and I’ll get comparable prices. And Prime doesn’t really save me anything anymore, and I never use Prime video and I’m Erin: terrible streamer. It’s a terrible streamer. Brett: I’m on the verge of canceling that as well, and once I do that, I will be mostly free of Amazon. Erin: That rocks do. I think that’s really cool. I, I was thinking about this the other day too, that like canceling Amazon [00:43:00] has knock-on effects that I think are really positive as well. For example, you know, I’m lucky to live in a city where, you know, I have within walking distance to me a lot of options. So if I needed packing tape or I needed. I don’t know, some pilot G twos or whatever, like instead of for let’s say, let’s say it’s a project specific thing, like I need a certain type of pen or whatever. Instead of being like, I will order these, do the two two day shipping and put off that project for when I have that tool. Instead, which shifts the nature of the project. Like on a project level, you’re thinking about differently already. And so instead, by not having the affordance to do that, I can get out of my house. That’s a good get sun. That’s another capital G. Good. See human beings interact with human beings, you [00:44:00] know, and then also do the project the same day and not give money. To AWS, which is the backend for a bunch of evil shit. Like, it just like, you know, it stacks. Brett: Yeah. Erin: So, I don’t know. Brett: Yeah. I don’t have options Erin: It’s a lot. It’s a privilege at see above, like I’m very ocularly privileged. Brett: Yeah, no, I, I mean, there are, there are some good. Stores in my little town. Um, we are, we are fortunate to have a community that will support some more esoteric type of stores. And I don’t shop at Target and I don’t shop at Walmart, so, um. I have to depend on the limited selection in small town stores, and a lot of times I can make due with what I can find locally. Um, but I do have to [00:45:00] order. Online a lot, which is why it’s been a slow process to wean off of Amazon. But Amazon is shit now too. Like you, it seems like you have selection, but you really don’t. It’s just a bunch of vendors selling the same knockoff thing and, uh, you don’t save any money if you’re buying like an original version of a product that Amazon didn’t already like bastardize and undersell, um, or undercut the seller on. Um, and it’s so much low quality and they tell you every time you buy Prime tells you you’ve saved $5 with Prime, but if you went to the actual vendor website, you would’ve saved that $5 anyway. Um, it’s shit. Amazon is shit, but yeah. So anyway, about, about, yeah. Erin: Um, uh, go ahead. Brett: I was gonna ask that we, we kind of trailed off on the blog discussion, but I just wanted to say [00:46:00] like, if you have questions about any platform or you do wanna do like a static site, I’m more than happy to help. Erin: Thanks Brett. I think I was gonna, I might take you up on that I, another direction I was going to go with this is like, I could also see someone saying like, systems order thinking. Like, what is your goal? Like, who is this for? And that’s also where I have some internal resistance because I’m on the precipice of being a douchey content creator or something in which this fits in. being cute about it, but like this fits into an ecosystem of like maybe a new career pivot for me. ’cause we’re not part, part of the Borg. So like I’ve started teaching guitar, like I went to school for music. I used to teach guitar a lot, classical and jazz guitar, and I haven’t done it for like 15 years. I just started doing that again and I can’t believe. [00:47:00] A couple things. How good I am at it. I’m a natural, like I, it sucks to be good at something, but you know, it, it doesn’t pay at all. So it’s like, um, so a couple things like do I want to start teaching again and do I want a blog to sort of be part of a funnel into a Patreon? And do I want the Patreon and. All these questions, you know, start forming around this. Like, well, I just want a blog. It’s like, why, why do I wanna blog? And I, I don’t think I have to have the answers to those questions right now. I don’t. But it seems like the choices you make, the very, like the zero width choice you make for a tool like this is really important. So that’s, that’s the other kind of. I’m having [00:48:00] internally about it, who cares? Like all the stakes. Ultimately, who, who gives a shit? Like, there are no stakes here. But I, I do think about it as a sort of like, you know, The Decline of Blogging Brett: I, I will say that everything about my career is due to blogging. Like since, since like the year 2000, um, every job I’ve gotten has been because people found me via my blog. Um, and when I have like applied for a job, they’ve used my, they’ve been like, oh, we went and read your blog and we think you’re a great candidate. Erin: But don’t you think the excuse my use of this term, the meta around blogging has changed? Or do you think it’s like that stalwart Brett: it, it, it really has like tremendously. Um, Erin: like just to be crude about it. Okay. Brett: Yeah. So like in, uh, maybe. [00:49:00] 2015, I was doing about a hundred thousand page views a week. Um, right now I’m down to more like, I think last time I checked I was doing like 8,000 page views a week. And if I look at the charts, it’s just been a steady downward trend. Um, people are not you, pe so, okay. That said, I still get about 30,000. Hits a week from RSS, which means there’s, for a nerd, for a tech site, for a tech blog. Like there’s still an audience that uses the ancient technology, RSS, um, and I get a lot of traffic from that. But in general, like social media has eaten my lunch as far as blogging. But that said, like, the only reason anyone knows who I am, and I’m not saying I’m famous, but like I, I Erin: I’ve been to Max. [00:50:00] You you have an aura? Yeah. Brett: and uh, it’s all because of 30 years of blogging. And I think, honestly think it takes like 10 years just to build up a name. So it’s not like a, oh, I’m gonna start a blog for my shop and everything’s gonna take off, Erin: Yeah, I think, I think if you, for, for the employment alone, it might, it might be worth it, I think. I think that’s huge. Like, you know, the Borg or Pre Borg, a OL where, you know, like if, if, if they were like, oh my God, yeah, you’re Brett Terpstra from Brett TURPs. Uh, like that’s worth it even if you’re getting zero clicks and they found, you know, Brett: What do you Nell from the movie Nell? Um, did you Did what? Oh. Did you give up on finding, uh, gainful employment? Navigating Employment and Content Creation Erin: no. But I give I [00:51:00] gainful employment. Um, no, but I’m taking it a little sleazy and I’m taking it a little easy. Um, unfortunately, it is a truth universally acknowledged. My version of every gainful employment that I’ve, that I’ve enjoyed is through blogging. My version of that is any. Job at that level that I’ve enjoyed has started with a dm. It’s never started with a, a shot in the dark application through Workday. Like it’s just, and I’m convinced that that’s true for everyone. Like I suspect that’s maybe the dark truth that. The it, it’s not what you are or what you can do, it’s who you know, unfortunately is an organizing principle for anything in life basically. And [00:52:00] being under someone’s employee is probably no different. So on one hand, the Puritan. Really creeps up on me here. On one hand, I’m like, oh, I’m not really spending a lot of time crafting my portfolio. I’m not really spending a lot of time crafting my resume and tailoring it to this position. I should really be doing that. I, the economy is be, my bank accounts are really behooving me to do that. But on the other hand, I’m balancing it with that truth, which is. waiting for the dm. I’m sending dms. I can play that game if I want, and I’m kind of trying to, but only to get the guilt monkey off my back, not because I have good. It’s a good faith bid for the universe, for some HR hiring manager, whatever, to be like, okay, I’m gonna Filch by this. I’m Filch by this. This is a cool candidate. It won. I’m convinced it won’t [00:53:00] happen like that. I could be wrong, and maybe that’s the case for you too, but like it’s more of a personal connection off of CRMs, know? Brett: I, uh, I stopped panicking. My, my app income is sufficient right now to survive, and I’m working to make it more than just survival. And like over the, over the course of a few months, I sent out prob, probably 150 resumes, like shots, shots in the dark. But I had, I had referrals, multiple referrals from. AWS Google, apple, like meta, like I had people at all of these places and I still, I could barely get a response. Um, I would apply for jobs I was wholly qualified for. I would, Erin: Probably overqualified Brett: I would craft the resume. I would take my time, and I wrote a different resume for each, at least [00:54:00] for the big ones. And, yeah. Yeah, I did it all. I had a whole, I had a whole workflow, an automated workflow where I could just write like in markdown and then hit a button. It would generate like a nice PDF that I could Erin: God damn right. Yeah. Brett: Um, and none of it, it didn’t do any good. And eventually I just stopped wanting it. Um, I would much rather just make my own way at this point. I couldn’t. I can’t wrap my head around being in a corporate environment anymore. I just don’t, I don’t wanna play that game. I want the money, I want the steady paycheck, but I just, I can’t play the game. Erin: Is the game to you doing the like, um, dom sub theater of like, I must respect my manager. My manager knows the way, even if they’re wrong, I ch raise my, you know, objections lest I Brett: know me, you know, I objected all the time. [00:55:00] I, I was full of objections and I, I don’t like, I don’t like the, I don’t like sitting in meetings. I don’t like pretending to care about someone else’s project. Erin: That’s it. That feels wrong to you, I feel like. Is that right? Yeah. Brett: Yeah. Erin: Yeah. I’m happy to do that for Brett: I’m not an employee. I can’t. Erin: Yeah. I don’t identify as an employee. I heard someone say, I think around. Last year’s pride as a bit, um, that we need to add con a content creator, stripe and color to the L-G-B-T-Q-I-A flag. And when I said that, I repeated that as I just said to you, to someone, and they didn’t laugh. I was like, oh no. Why have I surrounded myself with your life? Go away from me anyways. The Art of Dating and Bits Erin: I was on a date the other day. Brett: Yeah. Erin: And, um, Brett: Must be nice.[00:56:00] Erin: date privilege. Yeah. Being single. Mm. Love it. And, um, you know, I’m very sensitive to people who don’t do bits. Uh, I have an allergy to like selfer people. And, and this woman who was in like so attractive, like so attractive did a power move where she was like, we, we met at a coffee shop. And she was like, whatcha gonna get? I was like, oh, I’m gonna get a nice espresso. And when she went to order and I thought we were gonna do Dutch or whatever, she ordered her thing and then she was like, and a nice espresso as well. And I was like, oh, hot, cute. You harvested me for information and then used that as a power thing anyways, so that it was going well. But then we started talking and I was like, oh, she’s not really picking, I’m giving her, it’s like some like B [00:57:00] plus material and she’s not really responding at all. And we were talking about, I find it helpful on dates to acknowledge that we’re on a date and that we met on a dating app. So one way that I did this on this date was to say like, I saw someone with this word in their profile. What do you think it means? And the word was, or the phrase was, the desire was that they like to be corded, which I. I, I didn’t, I got into a sort of like debate with my other friend about what that means, what that means when someone puts that and they’re pan like, is that gendered, is that like a power thing? Is that like a noble abl thing? Like what is that? So we started talking about what it means to be courted on a date and she said something like, you know, a part of it too is probably that they like to be whined and dined. And I was like, in 69. She gave me nothing. I was like, [00:58:00] oh no, I forget why I brought this up. Um, Brett: I forgot too. Um, I like, I like that you associated corded with noble abl just. Erin: uh, Brett: As like a matter of course there, um, maybe they wanna gesture. Erin: oh, I think I brought it up because. I said that content creators deserve Brett: Mm, right, right, right. The bits we’re talking about Erin: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Um, Wrapping Up and Final Thoughts Brett: All right. Well, you gotta get going. I know we have like eight minutes. Erin: ooh, Brett: So we should give you some time to prep for whatever it is you’re cutting us short for. I’m not kidding. I’m just kidding. It’s like fif. We’re 58 minutes in. This is good. This was a good episode. Thank you so much for coming. Erin: I just did it ’cause I wanted to catch up with you to be Brett: Yeah. I feel like this was good. This was good for that. Erin: Yeah. Brett: Yeah. Erin: Thanks Brett. Brett: Well, good luck with everything. [00:59:00] been fun. Erin: Say the line. Brett: Get some sleep. Erin: Get some sleep. Brett, I.

The Youth Vote seems to be shifting in a way we have never seen before. Is this the beginning of a new era or just a fad? Today we will discuss those questions and get some answers.-----Well, it's almost Valentine's Day. You know what that means...coffee mugs with innuendos for your spouse.Order by February 1st to get yours in time for Valentine's Day: https://shop.nickjfreitas.com/collections/valentines-day-collection-----GET YOUR MERCH HERE: https://shop.nickjfreitas.com/BECOME A MEMBER OF THE IC: https://NickJFreitas.comInstagram: www.instagram.com/nickjfreitas/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/NickFreitasVATwitter: https://twitter.com/NickJFreitasYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@NickjfreitasTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@nickfreitas3.000:00:00 – Analyzing How Gen Z Will Vote in Midterms00:03:36 – Why Authenticity Is the Most Vital Trait for Leadership 00:05:21 – What Does Gen Z Specifically Want From Their Politicians?00:08:46 – Why Young Men Are Abandoning the Modern Democratic Party00:12:07 – Young Women Standing Up for Femininity and Traditional Spaces00:17:44 – Generating Voter Interest and Motivation for the Midterm Elections00:20:32 – A Three-Point Strategy for Republicans to Win the Midterms00:27:59 – Defining the Difference Between Citizens and Consumers of Government00:29:03 – Understanding the Primary Issues That Motivate Gen Z Voters00:33:07 – Why the Socialist Experiment Ultimately Fails in American Cities00:34:37 – Reclaiming the American Dream and Fighting for the Family00:42:47 – Why Young Men Are Seeking Meaning Through Faith and Family00:48:40 – Finding Your True Identity in Christ Rather Than Politics00:50:10 – Where to Find Brilyn Hollyhand and Final Podcast Thoughts

I sit down with Rachel Vigil, Founder of UpClose Marketing, to break down one of the most overlooked sampling channels for emerging CPG brands: vacation rentals and short-term stays.We talk about how placing products inside Airbnbs, mid-term rentals, and campgrounds allows brands to reach high-intent consumers in distraction-free environments without the high costs and chaos of festivals or in-store demos. Rachel shares which product categories perform best, how brands can collect real feedback and emails, and how this channel can support retail growth and long-term customer relationships.If you're curious whether this sampling strategy could work for your brand, you can contact Rachel by emailing me at intro@foodbevy.com, and I'll be happy to make an introduction.Startup to Scale is a podcast by Foodbevy, an online community to connect emerging food, beverage, and CPG founders to great resources and partners to grow their business. Visit us at Foodbevy.com to learn about becoming a member or an industry partner today.

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  What was long predicted is now playing out in real time: China's centrally planned economy is sliding into a deflationary doom loop. Reports from Shanghai's largest clothing market show vendors overwhelmed not with sales—but with returns. Retailers are sending back unsold inventory, revenues are collapsing, and wholesalers say business is down by half from last year. Consumers don't have money to spend, yet producers—following Beijing's mandates—keep making too much. Prices are slashed to clear inventory, profits shrink, wages stagnate, jobs disappear, and spending falls even further. It's the classic downward spiral of command-and-control economics. Despite officially reported growth fueled by exports, warehouses are filling, housing markets are oversupplied, youth unemployment is soaring, and demographics are rapidly deteriorating. Central planning once again proves it can't dictate consumer demand—and China is now paying the price.

In This Episode Could up to 80% of existing credit cards be canceled or see credit reductions under the proposed 10% interest rate cap? That's the stark prediction from industry research and leading credit providers like JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon. Instead of helping consumers, the policy could trigger an evaporation of available credit, shrink access, and push borrowers toward less regulated alternatives. In this episode of Breaking Banks, Jason Henrichs connects with leading industry voices Ron Shevlin, Managing Director & Chief Research Officer of Cornerstone Advisors and author of Forbes‘ Fintech Snark Tank, and Rhett Roberts, Co-Founder and CEO of LoanPro. As the trio discuss benefits, tradeoffs, and risks, they recognize that one size doesn’t always fit all, and explore where innovation might fill the gap: buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) models, bespoke lending products, and how stablecoins could be a market-based alternative to blunt the access problem, a way to lower costs without breaking the system. Could “loan-on-card” structures or embedded finance preserve convenience while reshaping risk? If credit migrates outside traditional card networks, are we undermining decades of consumer protection? For anyone shaping the future of banking, fintech, consumer lending and credit, or just trying to better understand the benefits, potential tradeoffs, and risks of interest rate caps and stablecoins as a market-based alternative, this episode is essential listening. Credit has a very long history of teaching us that quick fixes often create new problems.

The panel will discuss the questions left open—or raised—by the Supreme Court’s decisions in FCC v. Consumers' Research and Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, about the proper approach to statutory construction and the role that the nondelegation doctrine should play as a background principle in statutory analysis in cases where an agency has claimed broad authority to weigh competing public values when promulgating legislative rules. The discussion might address such subtopics as:Whether the Supreme Court’s rejection of an “extravagant” interpretation of FCC’s statutory authority in Consumers’ Research tells us anything about how courts should approach statutory cases where an agency is asserting an expansive view of its statutory authorities—given that the Court appeared to say that the dissent’s (supposedly “extravagant”) interpretation would present a nondelegation problem.What role nondelegation concerns should play under the avoidance canon in cases where an agency seeks to stretch nebulous or expressly open-ended delegations to achieve whatever policy objective the Executive Branch deems fit from one administration to the next.Whether these kinds of concerns can be dealt with by expanding clear statement rules—like that the Court has begun to develop with the major questions doctrine.Whether and to what extent legitimate nondelegation concerns arise in cases where Congress has expressly said that an issue is vested to agency discretion—as was contemplated in Loper Bright for certain kinds of rules for which the Court said the agency gets to decide.Featuring:Prof. Jonathan Adler, Tazewell Taylor Professor of Law and William H. Cabell Research Professor, William & Mary Law School; Senior Fellow, Property and Environment Research CenterProf. Ilan Wurman, Julius E. Davis Professor of Law, University of Minnesota Law School(Moderator) Adam White, Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Director, Scalia Law's C. Boyden Gray Center for the Study of the Administrative State

Shoot us a Text.Episode #1255: Waymo gains ground on rideshare rivals as Tesla undercuts them all. A global study shows bad CX drives customers away faster than high prices. And automakers pull back from Super Bowl ads, choosing more flexible, efficient buys.Only two automakers — Toyota and Cadillac — are confirmed for Super Bowl 2026, as most brands step away from the pricey event. Facing budget pressure and chasing efficiency, car companies are shifting spend to longer campaigns across other live events.Brands like Ford, BMW, Kia, Honda, Nissan, and Stellantis are sitting it out, citing affordability and better ROI elsewhere.With a $9 million price tag per 30 seconds plus production, the Super Bowl is losing appeal amid industry cost pressures.Automakers are turning to the Olympics, World Cup, and NBA All-Star Game for more cost-effective, multi-week campaigns.“There's no secret that the premium of being in the Super Bowl certainly would come at the expense of having some additional investment,” said Sean Gilpin, Hyundai CMO.Waymo is becoming a real contender in ride-hailing while Tesla goes for a classic price war play. A new Obi study compares autonomous and traditional services, showing a market reshaping rapidly — especially in San Francisco.Waymo's robotaxi pricing has dropped and is now only 12.7% more than Uber and 27.3% more than Lyft, compared to 30–40% higher in mid-2025.Tesla Robotaxi leads on price at just $8.17 per ride, but lags with 15.32-minute average wait times.Obi CEO Ashwini Anburajan: “They're using the playbook that Uber and Lyft used... and we know that playbook works."Consumers now prioritize customer experience over price with 59% abandoning a brand after one bad experience versus 55% fleeing due to price hikes, according to a global Havas CX study. Consistency and emotional connection are key drivers of loyalty.A global survey of 59,000+ shoppers shows experience matters more than cost — more consumers ditch brands after poor service than high prices.Consistent, seamless experiences across digital and physical channels top what customers value most.Emotional connection and personalization now weigh as heavily as functional efficiency in shaping CX.“Loyalty can only be earned by delivering unwavering consistency, authentic personal connection, and experiences that create lasting emotional memories,” says David Shulman.This episode of the Automotive State of the Union is brought to you by Amazon Autos: MeetJoin Paul J Daly and Kyle Mountsier every morning for the Automotive State of the Union podcast as they connect the dots across car dealerships, retail trends, emerging tech like AI, and cultural shifts—bringing clarity, speed, and people-first insight to automotive leaders navigating a rapidly changing industry.Get the Daily Push Back email at https://www.asotu.com/ JOIN the conversation on LinkedIn at: https://www.linkedin.com/company/asotu/

Episode 79: Liberate the Yield with Ronald Falls, Jr. Ron Falls visits the Tokens of Wisdom Studio to shed light on the epic showdown of Brian vs The Banks. We discuss the controversy surrounding yield provisions for stablecoins, the banking industry's response, and the potential future of financial services as digital assets gain traction.  Key Points From This Episode: The Clarity Act aims to provide a regulatory framework for digital assets.Stablecoin issuers are prohibited from paying interest to holders under the Genius Act.Exchanges have found loopholes to reward stablecoin holders despite this prohibition.The banking industry is concerned about losing deposits to stablecoins offering higher yields.There is a tension between traditional banks and crypto exchanges regarding yield provisions.The conversation around yield is becoming a significant political issue.Technological innovation in financial services should lead to healthy competition and more choices for consumers.Consumers should advocate for better yield opportunities in the digital asset space. Disclaimer: This show is for informational purposes only. Nothing presented here constitutes legal, investment or tax advice. The guests that join us share their considerable fund-related wisdom, but everything they share here is their personal opinion and for educational purposes only. On this show, they are speaking for themselves, and not for their employer or any affiliated entity. Tokens of Wisdom is produced by Dave Rothschild, partner at Cole-Frieman & Mallon LLP headquartered in San Francisco, California. For more information, visit https://colefrieman.com/ Links Mentioned in Today's Episode: Dave Rothschild - https://www.linkedin.com/in/davidcrothschild/Ronald Falls, Jr. - https://www.linkedin.com/in/laexecutive9/Cole-Frieman & Mallon LLP - https://colefrieman.com/Music by Joe Ginsberg - https://www.instagram.com/thejoeginsbergFor any questions or comments, email: tow@colefrieman.com

What is needed to truly move the needle on health? Create more research, more trials on nutrient density, more advocacy? Or, as Martin Reiter, founder of RARE argues, create the next regen Nestlé or Unilever: a 100 billion (yes, that's a B) regenerative consumer goods conglomerate, with only better-for-you and better-for-the-planet brands. The demand is there; the current incumbents are unable to innovate in regen, as they are built on chemical ingredients.The story usually goes like this: a group of people sets up a food (or cosmetics) brand that is better for you and better for the planet. Much better ingredients, honest sourcing, actually healthy, not UPF, etc. Then they need some money and raise funds, keep building, scaling, and at some point, 10–15 years down the road, the founders get tired and want to take some money off the table. and their existing investors need to get out and return money to their LPs.Currently, their only option is to sell to an incumbent, which then unfortunately usually screws it up. They start tweaking the ingredients, squeezing farmer margins, etc. The original founders leave after a few frustrating years.Is there a better way? A permanent home for regen, good-for-you, good-for-the-planet brands? A regen Nestlé or Unilever, if you will?More about this episode.==========================In Investing in Regenerative Agriculture and Food podcast show we talk to the pioneers in the regenerative food and agriculture space to learn more on how to put our money to work to regenerate soil, people, local communities and ecosystems while making an appropriate and fair return. Hosted by Koen van Seijen.==========================

Consumer confidence has plummeted. What does it mean for the economy?    The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell sharply in January, from 94.2 in December to 84.5. Consumers' assessment of both current business and labor market conditions, and their short-term outlook of the same, fell by 9.9 and 9.5 points, respectively, to 65.1, well below the threshold of 80 that typically signals a recession ahead.    Write-in responses showed a continuation in references to prices and inflation, oil and gas prices, and food and grocery prices. Mentions of tariffs and trade, politics, and the labor market also rose in January.    Join Dana M. Peterson and guest Erin McLaughlin, Senior Economist, to find out what's behind consumers' thinking and the current state of US trade.    For more from The Conference Board:  US Consumer Confidence  Forecast for the US Economy  Global Economic Outlook 

Today on CarEdge Live, Ray and Zach discuss the latest affordability crisis data. Tune in to learn more! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Eco-conscious wine lovers are willing to pay more for sustainable products—but they won't dig for details. In this Marketing Tip Monday, learn how to meet consumer demand for sustainability by making it easy. With 60% of younger and multicultural wine buyers preferring sustainable wines, visibility is key. Show your story at a glance with the SIP Certified logo on your label. It's fast, simple, and signals your commitment to people and the planet.  Resources:  *** Tell Your Sustainable Story Online Course ***  Apply for SIP Certified Wine Marketing Tips eNewsletter Sustainable Story Worksheet   Vineyard Team Programs:  Juan Nevarez Memorial Scholarship - Donate  Online Courses – DPR & CCA Hours  SIP Certified – Show your care for the people and planet    Sustainable Ag Expo – The premiere winegrowing event of the year  Vineyard Team – Become a Member  

Stephen Grootes speaks to Peter Armitage, CEO of Anchor Capital; Cobus Loots, CEO of Pan African; and Sithembile Bopela, an investment research analyst at FNB Wealth and Investments, about gold smashing through the $5 000 mark for the first time and what this historic surge signals for the global economy, investor sentiment and geopolitical risk. In other interviews, Cathrine Mushi, Councillor at ICASA and chairperson of the committee on End User Subscriber Charter talks about the new Icasa regulations on mobile data rollover and how they will affect consumers. The Money Show is a podcast hosted by well-known journalist and radio presenter, Stephen Grootes. He explores the latest economic trends, business developments, investment opportunities, and personal finance strategies. Each episode features engaging conversations with top newsmakers, industry experts, financial advisors, entrepreneurs, and politicians, offering you thought-provoking insights to navigate the ever-changing financial landscape.    Thank you for listening to a podcast from The Money Show Listen live Primedia+ weekdays from 18:00 and 20:00 (SA Time) to The Money Show with Stephen Grootes broadcast on 702 https://buff.ly/gk3y0Kj and CapeTalk https://buff.ly/NnFM3Nk For more from the show, go to https://buff.ly/7QpH0jY or find all the catch-up podcasts here https://buff.ly/PlhvUVe Subscribe to The Money Show Daily Newsletter and the Weekly Business Wrap here https://buff.ly/v5mfetc The Money Show is brought to you by Absa     Follow us on social media   702 on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TalkRadio702 702 on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@talkradio702 702 on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/talkradio702/ 702 on X: https://x.com/CapeTalk 702 on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@radio702   CapeTalk on Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CapeTalk CapeTalk on TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@capetalk CapeTalk on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ CapeTalk on X: https://x.com/Radio702 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

John Baumgartner spotlights food and beverage spending, sharing his firm's recent consumer survey. After a difficult last few years, with consumers cutting back, trading down, and bargain hunting, he sees more families saying the picture has improved. Employment uncertainty, however, is a huge worry among Americans, and they are likelier to save their tax refunds, he says. Cuts to food stamps could also impact food and beverage spending. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – / schwabnetwork Follow us on Facebook – / schwabnetwork Follow us on LinkedIn - / schwab-network About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

In this episode, I sit down to review an interview between Brandon Turner and Jefferson Bethke on solving the problem of consumerism and changing the reason behind why you go to work so that your family connection is improved. To access the sources for this episode, visit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSccWdzSFbE&list=PLqXPXGGcbW9e3LOL4pjZ_iN2I9KBx8qX-&index=3To become a subscriber of this podcast, visit:⁠⁠https://anchor.fm/seth-hensley/subscribe⁠

Send us a textWelcome to Cannabis Legalization News, where we discuss the latest developments in the cannabis industry. This week, we cover why hemp did not receive an extension despite the averted government shutdown, a key topic often debated in the context of the farm bill. We also dive into state-specific news from Virginia, Montana, and Missouri, and address the ongoing discussions around thc and cbd regulations.

In the second of their two-part roundtable, Seth Carpenter and Morgan Stanley's top economists break down the forces influencing growth across different regions.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Seth Carpenter: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Seth Carpenter, Morgan Stanley's Global Chief Economist and Head of Macro Research. And yesterday I sat down with my colleagues, Michael Gapen, our Chief U.S. Economist, Chetan Ahya, our Chief Asia Economist, and Jen Eisenschmidt, our Chief Europe Economist. And we spent a lot of time talking about monetary policy around the world. Today, let's go back to them, talk about the real side of the economy. It's Friday, January 23rd at 10am in New York. Jens Eisenschmidt: And 4pm in Frankfurt. Chetan Ahya: And 9pm in Hong Kong. Seth Carpenter: Michael, let me start with you, back on the U.S. And when I think about the U.S. economy, we have to start by talking about the U.S. consumer. Walk us through what investors need to understand about consumer spending in the U.S. What's driving it, what's going to hold it up, and where are the risks? Michael Gapen: I think the primary thing to remember here is that the upper income consumer drives about 40 percent or more of total spending. So, there can be higher inflation that eats into real labor market income growth. There can be inflation dispersion, which hits lower income households more than upper income households. We can have tariffs that get applied to goods and lower- and middle-income households buy goods more than upper income households. But when asset markets continue to appreciate, when home prices hold on to their prior gains, sometimes that doesn't matter in the aggregate statistics because that upper income household keeps spending.I do think that's a lot of what happened in 2025. So, there is a K-shaped economy. I think one of the main risks about the U.S. is that its expansion is narrowly driven. We think that will broaden out in 2026. If we're right, that inflation comes down and we're past, kind of, the peak effect of tariffs, then we think that lower- and middle-income household can have a little more residual spending power. And you might get the consumer operating on two fronts, rather than one. Seth Carpenter: Another part of domestic spending that gets a lot of attention is business investment spending, CapEx spending. First would you agree with that statement that CapEx spending last year was characterized by AI CapEx spending? Second, should we feel confident that that underlying sort of momentum in CapEx spending should continue for this year? And then third, what's it going to take for there to be a broadening out, maybe like what you said about consumers, but a broadening out of investment spending so that it's not just the AI story that's driving CapEx. Michael Gapen: I do agree that the primary, almost exclusive story in 2025 for business spending was AI. So, when you look at residential and non-residential spending, unrelated to AI, that I think did feel the effects of policy uncertainty in a changing environment. what keeps kind of sustainability around business spending? Obviously, it's a multi-year investment story around AI. There's a level versus growth rate argument here where you can have a heck of a lot of CapEx spending. May not always show up in GDP because some of it is intermediate goods, some of it is imported. But that doesn't diminish, I think, the quality of the overall story. What gets business spending to broaden out, I do think is related to whether consumer spending broadens out. Most business spending kind of follows demand with a lag. So, AI is a different story, but there's a cyclical component to business spending. There could be a housing related component, if mortgage rates come down and stimulate at least a little more turnover in the housing market. So, if the recovery does broaden out, we see greater real income growth in low- and middle-income households. The labor market stabilizes. Maybe mortgage rates come down a little bit, then I think you could get carry through momentum to non-AI related business spending. That would look more like a cyclical upswing for the economy. May be a heavy lift, but that's what I think it would take to get there. Seth Carpenter: So, Jens, let me come to you. We talked yesterday about the ECB possibly easing more on disinflation. But when I think of disinflation, I think of a weak economy. And that's maybe not really the case. So, I guess the first question to you would you characterize euro area economic growth as strong, or a little bit more complicated? Jens Eisenschmidt: A little bit more complicated. And that's always the right answer for an economist – I think it depends. Well, it is strong in some quarters. And these quarters will change from where it has been in the past.So concretely, we think the German economy has most potential to catch up and actually accelerate, and that's due to fiscal stimulus mainly. While we have other quarters, the French and the Italian one, which will be below potential and so weak – each of them for their own reason. And then we have the Spanish economy, which performs exceptionally and is really strong, but it's only a small part of the euro area economy. If we had everything together, I think the outlook is an economy that's accelerating mildly and only towards the end of our projection horizon, which is [20]27. So, in say two years, hits growth rates that are above potential. Here we are really talking about quarterly increments above 0.3. So, we are currently between 0.1 and 0.2. So, you sort of get the picture of a mildly accelerating economy that goes from 0.15 to 0.035 say in the span of two years. Seth Carpenter: One of the key narratives in markets is about fiscal policy in Germany, potentially driving growth. I know in equity markets it's been a key investing theme. So how excited should people be about the possibility of fiscal policy in Germany driving a resilient European economy? Jens Eisenschmidt: Pretty excited, I would say, in a sense that the positioning of the German government for its economy is actually exceptional in terms of the amount of fiscal space that exists and that has been made available. It's just that, of course, the connection of that sort of abstract excitement that we economists have to what actually happens in markets is sometimes a little bit loose; in the sense that equity [markets would like to see everything coming online tomorrow, and that's going to be a more drawn-out process. So, to my point before, it will take some time. We do have implementation lags. We do have lags in say, for instance, on defense procurement. There is maybe not as much capacity in the economy to deliver into everything. But the direction of travel is clear and up. So, from that perspective, I have no doubts that the future is better for the German economy over the medium term for all the reasons mentioned, but it won't be immediate. And we have just seen in recent headlines, Germany is the most trade exposed European economy. If we get more friction in global trade, that's not great. So, you could even have short term, more negative news on GDP than positive ones. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to turn to you. Yesterday when we talked about Asia, we focused on Japan. But, of course, when it comes to the real side of the economy, the big mover in Asia is China.So, let's talk a little bit about how you see China evolving. What the key themes are for China. Last year in particular, we talked a lot about the deflationary cycle in China and how it was protracted. It wasn't going away. That policy was not sufficient to drive a huge surge in demand to push things away. Are we in the same place for China in 2026? What kind of growth should we expect and what sort of policy reactions should we be expecting from China? Chetan Ahya: Well, I think the macro backdrop for China we think will still be challenging in 2026. But at the same time, we expect the micro positives to continue. Now on the macro backdrop, when I say it's going to remain challenging because the number one issue that we are focused on from a macro perspective in China is deflation. Now we do expect some easing of deflationary pressures, but [the] economy will still stay in deflation in 2026. And on the micro front what we've seen is that China is emerging from a situation where it is making inroads into advanced manufacturing, and that's enabling it to increase market share in global goods exports. And it's also one of the reasons why when you see the numbers coming out from China on exports, they seem to be outperforming. Even just the latest month number as we saw, China's exports were surprising on the upside relative to market expectations. And that's the micro story – that you'll see China continuing to gain market share in global goods export. And that supports the corporate micro positive story. Seth Carpenter: We know collectively that export is a key part of China's economy. The productive capacity, as you point out, important for China. When you think about exports from China, the currency has to come in. And recently the renminbi has been appreciating. Lots of questions from clients here or there. How important is the renminbi in reflating or rebalancing the China economy? Can you walk us through a little bit some of these considerations about the role that the currency is playing now and over the next few quarters for China and its economic outlook. Chetan Ahya: Yeah, that's right, Seth. Actually, I've been getting a number of clients calling me and asking whether PBOC is going to allow a significant appreciation in RNB. We've seen it appreciate quite a lot in the last few days. And then whether this will mean China's economy will rebalance faster towards consumption. Look, on the first point, we don't think PBOC will allow a significant currency appreciation because, as I just mentioned earlier, the deflation problem is still there. It's not gone. While we see reduced deflationary pressures, as long as the economy is in deflation, it'll be very difficult for PBOC to allow significant currency appreciation. And what we are also watching on RMB is to see what is happening to the trade weighted RMB. The RMB basket, if you were to call it. That interestingly has been in a stable range since 2016, and we don't think that changes. We've learned from Japan's experience in the nineties that if you have deflation problem, you shouldn't be taking up currency appreciation. And we think PBOC pretty much follows that rule book. On the rebalancing part, look, I think when you have deflation and if currency appreciation is going to add to deflation pressures, that will mean corporate sector revenue suffers. They will actually be cutting wage growth and therefore that has a negative impact on consumption. And so, in our view, instead of helping rebalancing currency appreciation with China's current macro backdrop, we'll actually be making rebalancing more difficult. Seth Carpenter: And of course, we're used to China being a key driver of the economy, not just in Asia, but around the world. But if we think about then broadening out from China, what should we be expecting in terms of growth for the other economies in Asia? Chetan Ahya: For the other economies in the region, I think the most important driver will be what happens to exports more broadly. In 2025, Asia did benefit from better tech exports, but because of tariffs and also what was happening in the U.S. in terms of its own domestic demand, we'd seen that there was significant weakness in non-tech exports. So, from an outlook perspective in 2026, we think that that non-tech export story turns around and that will help the recovery in the region to broaden out from it just being tech exports to non-tech exports, to improvement in CapEx, job growth and consumption. So, I think that the whole region is going to see the benefit from this turnaround. But particularly the non-China part of the region will be seeing a meaningful improvement in their export growth, real GDP growth and normal GDP growth in 2026. Seth Carpenter: I'm getting ready to wrap things up. But before I do, I'm going to ask each of the three of you, one last rapid-fire question. Michael, I'm going to start with you. AI is on everyone's lips. If we were to see a rapid adoption of AI technology across all the economies. What would it mean for the Fed? Michael Gapen: Well, I think that would mean a substantial uptick in productivity growth. Maybe closer to 3 percent like we saw in the tech boom in the nineties. So faster real growth. But probably still disinflation. You can argue the Fed could even lower rates in that environment. It may take them a while to figure it out [be]cause they'd be balancing incoming data that shows a lot of strong growth. But probably further evidence that inflation's coming down. So, if it's supply side driven, then I think you could still probably get some rate cuts out of the Fed to normalize policy as inflation comes down. But I'd be thinking those cuts could even come much later. Seth Carpenter: Okay, Jens to you, a lot of discussion in the news about possible additional tariffs from the U.S. on Europe in some of the negotiations. Suppose some of the announcements, 10 percent tariffs rising to 25 percent tariffs later. Suppose those were actually put in place. What does that mean for European growth? Jens Eisenschmidt: So, I would say 10 percent additional tariffs, we have a framework for that. Pointing to drag on GDP growth somewhere between 30 and 60 basis points. So roughly half of what we think 2026 will bring in growth. Now, for sure the answer is additional tariffs are not great for growth. Big question mark here is though whether we get any retaliation from the European side, which we think this time around if we get additional tariffs from the U.S. side is more likely. And that would just increase the downside risk for Europe here from that additional round of trade or tariff uncertainty. Seth Carpenter: Chetan, I'm going to end up with you. When we think about China, when we think about policy, what do you think it would take for there to be a fundamental shift in policy out of Beijing to get a real full blown, demand driven fiscal stimulus? Or is that just not in the cards whatsoever? Chetan Ahya: Well, in our base case, we don't think that's likely to happen in our forecast horizon. But if we do get a big social stability challenge emerging in China, then we could get that big pivot from [a] policy response perspective, where policy makers move towards consumption. And our recommendation there is to boost social welfare spending, particularly targeted towards migrant workers, which could be taken up if you get that social stability risk event materializing. Seth Carpenter: Mike, Chetan, Jens, thank you so much for joining today. And for the listener, thank you for joining us. If you enjoy this show, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share Thoughts on the Market with a friend or a colleague today.

Today on Dumb Money, the company that quietly dominated the holidays.

In this enlightening episode of 90 Miles from Needles, host Chris Clarke explores the intricate world of bees with Mary O' Brien from Project 1100. The conversation delves into the potentially deleterious effects of honeybee apiaries on public lands, a topic that's both counterintuitive and crucial for the public to understand. Honeybees, although often seen as critical to agriculture and ecosystems, can pose significant threats to native solitary bees that have co-evolved with local flowering plants. Mary O' Brien sheds light on how these industrious honeybees outcompete their native cousins, impacting pollination dynamics that are vital for the desert's diverse flora. Listeners will gain valuable insights into the importance of preserving native bee species, the complexities of their ecological roles, and the nuanced implications of honeybee proliferation. O'Brien also shares practical strategies for those interested in conservation, emphasizing the importance of habitat protection and mindful consumerism when it comes to honey and pollinator support. Key Takeaways: Honeybees, although widely supported and utilized in agriculture, can have adverse effects on native bee populations, outcompeting them for resources and spreading diseases. The high reproductive rate of honeybees poses a threat to native plants relying on solitary native bees for pollination, potentially destabilizing ecosystems. Public lands serve as critical refuges for native bee species, which are often overlooked in conventional conservation discussions. Consumers can contribute to bee conservation efforts by choosing their honey responsibly and fostering habitats for native pollinators. Regulatory frameworks around public land usage play a significant role in the sustainability of native bee populations, calling for increased transparency and stakeholder engagement. Notable Quotes: "Trying to save bees by saving the honeybee is like trying to save birds by saving the chicken." "Native bees evolved in tandem with flowers, and honeybees are not very good pollinators of many species of plants." "Once you know native solitary bees are in your world, you really can delight in seeing such diversity." "Public lands are the wildflower repositories for the Western U.S.; especially in the desert." "It's often quite attractive to think that you're buying wildflower honey; however, you're almost certainly buying honey that was produced on public land." Resources: Project 1100 Website Xerces Society for Invertebrate Conservation The Forgotten Pollinators by Stephen Buchmann and Gary Nabhan Common Bees of Western North America laminated guide Center for Biological Diversity resources on pollinators: Bees Pollinators Pollinators in Peril report Discover the intricate dynamics between honeybees and native pollinators and why preserving the biodiversity of our desert ecosystems is more crucial than ever. Listen to the full episode to deepen your understanding of this vital subject and stay tuned to 90 Miles from Needles for more insightful discussions on desert conservation. Podcast episode artwork: Mojave poppy bee (Perdita meconis). Photo courtesy Zach Portman / University of Minnesota Department of Entomology via the Nevada Independent.Become a desert defender!: https://90milesfromneedles.com/donateSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Dietary supplements are widely used, yet many people do not understand how they are regulated or how marketing influences what they see online. This episode explains how supplements are regulated in the United States, what the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act means for consumers, and why affiliate links matter.   The discussion covers common red flags in supplement marketing, including fear-based messaging, exaggerated claims, lack of transparency, and misuse of credentials. It also explains the role of the Federal Trade Commission in requiring disclosure of paid partnerships and affiliate relationships.   Listeners will learn how to evaluate supplement claims, identify reliable sources of information, and understand where supplements may or may not fit into a balanced approach to health. This episode emphasizes critical thinking, evidence-based nutrition, and informed decision-making.   Read more: National Institutes of Health Office of Dietary Supplements Read more: FDA's Dietary Supplement page Read more: Dietary Supplements and Affiliate Links Learn more or contact me: ShelleyRael.com Schedule a complimentary 30-minute introductory call today to discover how I can help you achieve your health and wellness goals. Enroll in the Mini Course: 6 Tips for the Busy Person to Have Sustainable Energy: All-Day Energy Through Food AND Companion Workbook

In this episode, I sit down to review an interview between Brandon Turner and Jefferson Bethke on solving the problem of consumerism and changing the reason behind why you go to work so that your family connection is improved. To access the sources for this episode, visit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bSccWdzSFbE&list=PLqXPXGGcbW9e3LOL4pjZ_iN2I9KBx8qX-&index=3To become a subscriber of this podcast, visit:⁠⁠https://anchor.fm/seth-hensley/subscribe⁠

One year into Donald Trump's second term, what does the U.S. economy really look like? In this episode of Real Estate News for Investors, Kathy Fettke breaks down new economic data examining Trump's first year back in office — from the slowest job growth outside a recession in decades to resilient GDP growth, elevated tariffs, and inflation that remains above the Fed's target. You'll hear how policy uncertainty, trade tariffs, and federal workforce reductions are shaping the labor market, why consumer spending remains strong despite economic headwinds, and what a "jobless expansion" could mean for investors moving forward. This data-driven update helps real estate investors understand where the economy stands today — and how jobs, inflation, GDP, and consumer behavior may impact housing, interest rates, and investment strategy in the year ahead.

How do consumers view value these days?This week's episode of the Restaurant Business podcast A Deeper Dive features Jen Meyers, growth strategy leader for the restaurant practice with the consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal.The firm recently completed an extensive survey of consumers on a broad range of topics on restaurants and we wanted to chat with Jennifer about the results and what they mean.We talk about the value equation and how consumers' views of value has changed over the years from cheap food to value for the money. We talk about what drives consumers out of restaurants.We also talk about a lot of other topics, including the growing snacking occasion, consumers' views on health along with nostalgia marketing.We're talking about the consumer on A Deeper Dive so please check it out. 

Episode 100 is a milestone moment for Business of Drinks — and instead of looking backward, we're doing what this show has always done best: Looking ahead.In this special episode, Erica Duecy, Scott Rosenbaum, and Caroline Lamb break down the biggest drinks trends shaping 2026, using a meta-analysis of 16 leading industry trend reports. The goal isn't hype, it's pattern recognition. We're pressure-testing what's structural, what's actionable, and what actually matters for founders, operators, and drinks leaders navigating a complex market.Across the first 100 episodes, one pattern has held true: Trends only matter if they translate into execution. This conversation applies that lens to what's coming next.Here's a preview of what's to come:

PREVIEW FOR LATER TODAY Guest: Elizabeth Peek. Peek argues that the recent drop in gasoline prices to an average of $2.80 acts as a major tax cut for American consumers. She notes that unlike the anger caused by $5-a-gallon gas under previous leadership, the current retreat in oil prices is significantly benefiting the driving public.1920 LANGLEY AERODROME WASHIGTON DC.

Consumers have heard of “dynamic pricing,” when the prices are based on demand within a single moment. But whether they know it or not, they're also contending with “surveillance pricing,” where companies use personalized consumer data to serve up personalized prices. Marketplace's Kristin Schwab reports.

Consumers have heard of “dynamic pricing,” when the prices are based on demand within a single moment. But whether they know it or not, they're also contending with “surveillance pricing,” where companies use personalized consumer data to serve up personalized prices. Marketplace's Kristin Schwab reports.

This is a recap of the top 10 posts on Hacker News on January 19, 2026. This podcast was generated by wondercraft.ai (00:30): American importers and consumers bear the cost of 2025 tariffs: analysisOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46680212&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(01:59): A decentralized peer-to-peer messaging application that operates over BluetoothOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46675853&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(03:28): Radboud University selects Fairphone as standard smartphone for employeesOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46676276&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(04:57): Amazon is ending all inventory commingling as of March 31, 2026Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46678205&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(06:26): Letter from a Birmingham Jail (1963)Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46683205&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(07:55): GLM-4.7-FlashOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46679872&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(09:24): Level S4 solar radiation eventOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46684056&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(10:53): What came first: the CNAME or the A record?Original post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46681611&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(12:22): Show HN: I quit coding years ago. AI brought me backOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46673809&utm_source=wondercraft_ai(13:52): Apple testing new App Store design that blurs the line between ads and resultsOriginal post: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46680974&utm_source=wondercraft_aiThis is a third-party project, independent from HN and YC. Text and audio generated using AI, by wondercraft.ai. Create your own studio quality podcast with text as the only input in seconds at app.wondercraft.ai. Issues or feedback? We'd love to hear from you: team@wondercraft.ai

It's called the "lipstick effect." Consumers sometimes splurge on small luxuries — like cosmetics, accessories, and more — as a sort of rebellion against a bleak economic backdrop. And these indulgent purchases are expected to be big in the year ahead. Also: the toll tariffs have taken on the economy as Trump threatens more over Greenland and the impact of a growing number of millionaires in the United Arab Emirates.

It's called the "lipstick effect." Consumers sometimes splurge on small luxuries — like cosmetics, accessories, and more — as a sort of rebellion against a bleak economic backdrop. And these indulgent purchases are expected to be big in the year ahead. Also: the toll tariffs have taken on the economy as Trump threatens more over Greenland and the impact of a growing number of millionaires in the United Arab Emirates.

At the Winter Fancy Faire, the Specialty Food Association revealed six emerging trends reshaping how consumers engage with food and beverage as they seek more value as inflation and GLP-1 use cut into volume and dollar sales

More dealers are seeking inventory by buying directly from consumers. But some managers are still struggling with how to best execute a plan. To help dealers of all sizes in various markets, AutoAcquire AI CEO Anthony Monteiro appeared on the Live Stage presented by SYCN Auto Logistics during Used Car Week 2025. Monteiro's conference conversation with Cherokee Media Group's Nick Zulovich about this part of inventory acquisition is now available through this episode of the Auto Remarketing Podcast.

On this episode of Vitality Radio, Jared St. Clair explains why supplement companies and their labels—and even educators like Jared—have to sound so careful about the claims they make. You'll learn how DSHEA (the Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act) reshaped the supplement industry in the 1990s, why brands can say “supports healthy joints” but can't say “treats arthritis,” and what “structure/function claims” really mean. Jared also breaks down the FDA-required disclaimer (“These statements have not been evaluated…”) so you know what it does and doesn't imply about whether a product works. Finally, he gives a practical label-reading skill most shoppers miss: serving size math, so you can tell what you're actually getting per capsule and per day.Additional Information:Vitamin Raid YouTube VideoEpisode BlogInventory Reduction Sale!For the first time ever, we're bringing to you our inventory reduction sale online. Over 200 trusted products are already deeply discounted, including clearance items, overstock, and some short-dated products (all still in date). On top of the markdowns, the more you buy, the more you save, with stacked discounts that can reach up to 70–80% off retail. This sale runs through January 31st or while supplies last—when it's gone, it's gone. Shop Here!Visit the podcast website here: VitalityRadio.comYou can follow @vitalitynutritionbountiful and @vitalityradio on Instagram, or Vitality Radio and Vitality Nutrition on Facebook. Join us also in the Vitality Radio Podcast Listener Community on Facebook. Shop the products that Jared mentions at vitalitynutrition.com. Let us know your thoughts about this episode using the hashtag #vitalityradio and please rate and review us on Apple Podcasts. Thank you!Just a reminder that this podcast is for educational purposes only. The FDA has not evaluated the podcast. The information is not intended to diagnose, treat, cure, or prevent any disease. The advice given is not intended to replace the advice of your medical professional.

Trump pitches direct payments to consumers for health care. Friday Sound Salad. Another government shutdown possible in 15 days. Streamflation. Trump threatens to invoke Insurrection Act to quell anti-ICE protests in Minnesota. Zach Abraham, Bulwark Capital, talks about the latest moves by the Federal Reserve. Buddhist monks walking 2,300 miles from Texas to DC. Jim Kennedy, Kennedy Institute for Public Policy Research, talks about the major news stories of the week. 

President Trump wants to cap credit card interest rates at 10% for a year. But the big banks warn that could limit lending and hit the most vulnerable first. Also today - why prices for metals like copper and tin are hitting record highs, we'll investigate what's behind the surge.And despite fresh US tariffs under President Trump — and a volatile global economic backdrop — China posted a record trade surplus of around $1.2 trillion.Picture:Illustration shows Bank of America, Citi bank and Wells Fargo credit card mockups, Reuters

The online coaching space is expected to reach $100B by 2030, which means we are rapidly growing. With that being said, now more than ever, there are more ads, marketing messages and coaches appearing in the space every day. Consumers are skeptical (and you might be, too). This episode breaks down how to overcome skepticism and continue to build trust and authority to ensure you stand out as a credible coach in the market. –I'll create a profitable profile for you in minutes. Click to attract high-paying clients. https://go.taelerdehaes.com/bio-surveyJoin our Fit Pro Business Secrets Made Simple group over on Facebook for exclusive resources, trainings and help as you're growing your online fitness business. https://www.facebook.com/groups/fitprobusinesssecrets/  Follow Taeler on Instagram. https://www.instagram.com/taelerfit/Learn more about working with Taeler, whether you're just starting your online coaching business or scaling to multi-6/7-figures. https://taelerdehaes.com/ 

Our U.S. Thematic Strategist Michelle Weaver and U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst Chris Snyder discuss a North America Big Debate for 2026: Whether investments in efficiency and productivity will spark a transformation of U.S. manufacturing. Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Michelle Weaver: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michelle Weaver, Morgan Stanley's U.S. Thematic and Equity Strategist. Chris Snyder: I'm Chris Snyder, U.S. Multi-Industry Analyst. Michelle Weaver: Today: Will 2026 be the year of U.S. Manufacturing's transformation? It's Tuesday, January 13th at 10am in New York. U.S. reshoring has been an important component of our multipolar world theme, and manufacturing is one of those topics we have always had our eyes on. We've been making some big predictions about a transformation in this sector, so it makes sense that it features prominently in the big debates we've identified for North America in 2026. In the last few years, there's been a steady stream of investments in automation controls and upgrades across U.S. manufacturing. And this is happening against a backdrop of shifting global supply chains and lingering policy uncertainty. Now, the big market debate is whether these investments will generate a whole wave of greenfield projects – that is brand new, multi-year construction initiatives to build facilities, factories, and infrastructure from the ground up. Chris, what exactly is driving this current wave of efficiency and productivity investment in U.S. manufacturing? And how long term of a trend is it? Chris Snyder: I think what's driving the inflection is tariffs. The view that has underpinned my U.S. reshoring call is that I believe companies have to serve the U.S. market. The U.S. accounts for 30 percent of global consumption – equal to EU and China combined. It is also the best margin region in the world. So, companies have to serve the market, and now what they're doing is they're going back and they're looking at their production assets that they have in the U.S. and they're saying, how can I get more out of what's already here? So, the quickest, cheapest, fastest way to bring production online in the U.S. is drive better productivity and efficiency out of the assets you already have. And we're seeing it come through very quickly after Liberation Day. Michelle Weaver: And you think these investments are an on ramp to larger greenfield projects. What evidence do we have that this efficiency spend is setting the stage for a ramp up in new factory builds? Chris Snyder: I think this is absolutely the leading indicator for greenfields because this is telling us that the supply chain cost calculation has changed. What all of these companies are doing are saying, ‘Okay, how can I get products into the U.S. at the cheapest cost possible?' What we're seeing is the cost of imports have gone higher with tariffs, and now it's more economically advisable for these companies to make the product in the United States. And if that's the case, that means that when they need a new factory, it's going to come to the United States. They might not need a factory now, but when they do, the U.S. is at least incrementally better positioned to get that factory. Other data that we're seeing; I think the most interesting data that's come out of all of this is the bifurcation in global PPI or producer price data. If you look at it on a regional basis, North America markets saw PPI go higher in 2025. They were all the tariff exempt regions – U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Every other region in the world saw PPI down year-to-date. That means that these companies and factories are having to lower prices to stay competitive in the global market and sell their products into the United States. That tells us also where the next factory is going. If you have a factory in the U.S. and a factory in Malaysia, and your U.S. factory is pricing up, that means the return profile is getting better. If your factory in Malaysia is pricing down, it means the returns are getting worse and you're pricing down because it's over-capacitized. That's not a region where you're going to add a factory. You know, what I like to say is – price drives returns, and supply is going to follow returns. And right now, that price data tells us the returns are in the United States. Michelle Weaver: And, for people that might not be familiar with PPI, can you explain it to everyone? It's sort of like CPIs cousin, but how should people think about it? Chris Snyder: Yeah, yeah, so PPI, Producer Price Inflation, it's effectively the prices that my companies, the producers of goods are charging. So maybe this is the price that they would then charge a distributor, who then the distributor ultimately is selling it to a store. And then that's, you know, kind of factoring its way into CPI. But it starts with PPI. Michelle Weaver: And what are some of the key catalysts investors should be looking for in 2026 that could confirm that this greenfield ramp is underway? Chris Snyder: The number one, you know, metric I think the market looks at is manufacturing project starts. Every month there's data that comes out and says how many manufacturing projects were announced in the U.S. that month. And what we've seen coming out of Liberation Day is that number on a project value has gone higher. You know, it hasn't totally inflected, but it has pushed higher. The thing that has inflected is the number of announcements. So, this is not like two or three years ago where we had these mega projects. What we're seeing right now is very broad. And to me that's more important because that shows that there's durability behind it. And it shows that this is because the economics are saying it makes sense. It's not necessarily just because, okay, I got an incentive and I'm trying to follow alongside that. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. The market seems skeptical though, pointing out that the ISM manufacturing purchasing managers index has been shrinking. This could be a sign that demand isn't strong enough to justify building new factories right now. How would you address that concern? Chris Snyder: Yeah, no, I mean, you're definitely right. Like the biggest pushback on the reshoring theme is the demand for goods is not very strong. Consumers are not in a good place. So why would companies add capacity in this backdrop? That's never happened before. Companies only add capacity when they're producing a lot and the utilization goes up. This is not a normal cycle. Throughout history, the motivation to add capacity was when your production rates go higher, your utilization hits a certain level, and then you add capacity. So, it always started with demand to your point. The motivation right now is tariff mitigation. And you do not need higher demand to support that. The U.S. is a $1.2 trillion trade deficit. So, that more than anything gets me confident in the theme and the duration behind it. And I think it's a very different outlook when you look across the international markets. They're the ones that need to find incremental demand to justify investment. Michelle Weaver: And given the scale of U.S. purchasing power and the shift in global capital flows, how do you see these manufacturing trends impacting broader performance in 2026? Chris Snyder: We published our outlook and we're calling for the U.S. Industrial Economy to hit decade high growth levels in the back half of [20]26 and into [20]27. And this is a big reason why. We think about this a lot from a CapEx perspective. And we're seeing the investment, we think that ramps into larger greenfields. But we're also seeing it in the production economy. If you look at the delta between U.S. consumer spend and U.S. manufacturing production, that has really narrowed in recent months. And that tells us that we're increasingly serving U.S. demand through domestic production. So that's another factor that's going to drive activity higher and it doesn't need a cycle. And I think that's what's really important. And I think that is what creates this as a more secular and also durable opportunity. So obviously reassuring is something that's, you know, very close to me and important for the industrial economy. But as you think about the multipolar world theme more broadly, how do you think that evolves in 2026? Michelle Weaver: Yeah, absolutely. Last year the multipolar world was an incredibly powerful theme. And when investors were thinking about the multipolar world last year, it was largely about how are companies going to mitigate the risk of tariffs in the near term. We had the policies come out and surprise everyone in terms of the breadth and the magnitude of the tariffs we saw. We had a lot of policy uncertainty around what is that final level of tariffs going to look like. And a lot of the reaction was really short term. It's how can we use our inventory buffers to try and preserve our margins? How much of these additional tariff costs can we pass off to the end customer? How can we insulate ourselves in the near term? I think this year it's going to turn to more longer-term strategic thinking. Reshoring and a lot of the greenfield projects you were talking about, I think will absolutely be an important component of the multipolar world this year. I think we're also likely to see a greater emphasis on U.S. defense. With the action we just saw in Venezuela. I think we're going to see more of that defense component of the multipolar world starting to be expressed in the U.S. It was a big part of the expression of the theme in Europe last year, but I think it will gain relevance in the U.S. this year. Chris Snyder: Yeah. And I think the next chapter in U.S. industrial growth is just getting going. It's taken 25 years for the U.S. to seed roughly 12 percentage points of global share in manufacturing. We don't think they take that much back. But we think this is a very long runway opportunity. Michelle Weaver: Mm-hmm. And as we watch for the next wave of greenfields, it's clear that efficiency and productivity investments are more than just a stop gap. They're a longer-term theme and they're a foundation for a new era in U.S. manufacturing. Chris, thank you for taking the time to talk. Chris Snyder: Great speaking with you, Michelle. Michelle Weaver: And to our listeners, thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen to the show and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.

Send Jackie A Message!What's actually changing in the yoga and Pilates industry in 2026 — and what do studio owners need to do to keep growing without burning out?In this episode, Jackie Murphy shares her 2026 predictions for the yoga and Pilates industry through the lens of data, consumer behavior, marketing trends, and business sustainability. You'll learn why industry growth means more competition (and why that's not a bad thing), how consumers are becoming smarter and more values-driven, and why generic marketing is officially dead.Jackie also explains why organic marketing alone won't be enough in 2026, how AEO (Answer Engine Optimization) is changing visibility on Google and AI tools, and why coaching and business education are becoming non-negotiable for studio owners who want predictable cash flow and long-term sustainability.If you want to scale your studio with clarity, stronger messaging, better marketing, and a business model that lasts, this episode will give you a roadmap.Timestamped Outline[00:00] Welcome + why this episode matters[02:30] Industry growth data + what it means[05:00] More competition = need clearer messaging[07:00] Smarter, more values-driven consumers[09:00] People scrolling less + why content must improve[11:00] Why organic alone won't cut it (paid ads + amplification)[13:00] AEO / Answer Engine Optimization + visibility shifts[15:00] Coaching becomes non-negotiable in the industry[20:00] Sustainability + predictable cash flow becomes the priority[22:30] Using data deeper: longer nurture journeys + conversion[26:00] Team structure evolves: specialized roles, not “one studio manager”[30:00] Teacher pipeline + onboarding systems / trainings[32:00] CTA: Studio CEO Program + what's includedKey Takeaways ✅ The industry is growing fast — which means more options for consumers✅ Generic “yoga has benefits” marketing won't stand out anymore✅ Consumers are smarter and more values-driven✅ People are scrolling less → your content must earn attention fast✅ Organic marketing alone won't be enough; amplify what works with paid ads✅ AEO matters as AI answers replace traditional searches✅ Coaching/business education is becoming a baseline requirement✅ Sustainability and predictable cash flow beat “big jumps” in 2026✅ Team roles will specialize (marketing, teacher development, ops)✅ Studios must strengthen teacher pipelines and onboarding systemsPull Quotes“You are so far past generic marketing.”“Your consumer is smarter.”“Coaching is going to become non-negotiable.”“If you want to be part of the growth… you have to be around in 2035.”“Get off the roller coaster.”Resources MentionedStudio CEO Program (12 months)Weekly coaching calls + written coachingWeekly trending reels (hook + caption + training)Bonus workshops (including AEO/AIO workshop)Related EpisodesEpisode on AI + studiosEpisode on coachingWork with Jackie Murphy Say Hi on Instagram @studioceoofficial 3 Marketing Mistakes Yoga & Pilates Business Owners Make: https://www.jackiegmurphy.com/3-marketing-mistakes Join The Studio CEO Program: https://www.jackiegmurphy.com/studioceo

Watch The X22 Report On Video No videos found (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:17532056201798502,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-9437-3289"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");pt> Click On Picture To See Larger PictureThe EU economy is imploding, Germany the power manufacturing company is falling apart and now companies are moving to Hungary. Trump built the tariff system to compete the [CB]. Trump has now started the narrative of why the Fed should not be controlling the US economy. DOJ has begun a criminal investigation, soon the Fed will be restructured into the Treasury. The [DS] is panicking, they are losing the chess match and they have no more move except one. Trump has now set the stage and the [DS] will follow the path to their destruction. The money supply is in the process of being shutdown, the [DS] is struggling, the countries they controlled are struggling. Soon Trump will have all the leverage and the enemy will be at it’s weakest point. Game Over. Economy (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:18510697282300316,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-8599-9832"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="https://cdn2.decide.dev/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs"); https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2010625048856424506?s=20   countries. In the year 2023, Germany lost 123,000 manufacturing jobs. The trend has continued in 2024 and 2025. Lousy energy policy has consequences. https://twitter.com/RealPNavarro/status/2010480063091720266?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealPNavarro/status/2010480094662332678?s=20   factory jobs appear. https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/2010701202971935191?s=20 JUST IN: RINO Tillis Threatens to Block Fed Nominations Over Powell Criminal Investigation Federal investigators opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell is under fire for the cost of renovating the Fed's DC headquarters. The cost ballooned from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion. RINO Senator Thom Tillis is threatening to block any future Fed nominations over the Justice Department's federal criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Source: thegatewaypundit.com FED Chairman Jerome Powell Attempts to Evade Legal Accountability by Hiding Behind His Office Regardless of how you feel about the Federal Reserve Board, I think we would all agree the construct of an autonomous central bank is outside the boundaries of our constitutional framework.  Factually, the Sea Island financial group set up the Federal Reserve as a system of control over the U.S. economy that was completely unnecessary.  . Last year facing ridiculous cost overruns, congress questioned Powell over the insane spending proposal by Powell for a new office building.  Chairman Powell characterized the construction changes that escalated the cost of the project from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion as ‘minor modifications.'  That's $2.5 billions of taxpayer money. .[Transcript] – “Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned in part a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one—certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve—is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure. This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role; the Fed through testimony and other public disclosures made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation. I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. Thank you.” Source:theconservativetreehouse.com Powell says criminal investigation by Trump's Justice Department threatens Fed's independence https://twitter.com/unseen1_unseen/status/2010547216906125721?s=20 https://twitter.com/jeffreytucker/status/2010520328389173522?s=20  would love to have been a fly on that wall, just listening in. Jerome caved. Now he is whining like a man-child that his supposed independence is being compromised by a threatened criminal indictment over a profligate building project. Historians will have a hard time making sense of this hilarity, including the faux-serious pose in this histrionic statement of pretend integrity. There is no place in a democracy for a secretive and all-controlling central bank. These conspirators are toast, if not now or tomorrow, then eventually. A peoples’ government needs a peoples’ money that people can own and control, and a banking system that is based on market competition, not a cartel of big shots. Sorry, Jerome, you showed your cards five years ago, revealing exactly who and what you serve, and that is not the American people. These are the end times for the Federal Reserve. https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/2010771831658107044?s=20 https://twitter.com/julie_kelly2/status/2010761420082917557?s=20 Silver and Gold Hit New Highs on Fed Probe and Heightened Geopolitical Tensions   Gold and silver prices are climbing in response to concerns around geopolitical issues and policy independence at the Federal Reserve. Source: barrons.com    of Dollars! It would be a complete mess, and almost impossible for our Country to pay. Anybody who says that it can be quickly and easily done would be making a false, inaccurate, or totally misunderstood answer to this very large and complex question. It may not be possible but, if it were, it would be Dollars that would be so large that it would take many years to figure out what number we are talking about and even, who, when, and where, to pay. Remember, when America shines brightly, the World shines brightly. In other words, if the Supreme Court rules against the United States of America on this National Security bonanza, WE'RE SCREWED! PRESIDENT DONALD J. TRUMP Political/Rights  WBD is not just another studio. It is the home of HBO, DC Comics, the Harry Potter films, Game of Thrones, and one of the most important film archives in the world. Netflix itself boasts that the acquisition would combine Warner's “iconic franchises and storied libraries” with the world's largest streaming platform. If Netflix absorbs these assets, it will not just be the biggest streaming service. It will become the most dominant cultural gatekeeper the United States — and much of the world — has ever seen. Yet despite the obvious risks, WBD's leadership is pushing forward even though Paramount Skydance has launched an all-cash tender offer of $30 per share for the entire company — a bid that implies significantly higher value for shareholders than Netflix's offer.  At the same time, merging WBD's vast film and television library into Netflix would weaken competition in both streaming and content markets and concentrate cultural power in ways fundamentally at odds with the diversity of voices a free nation needs to survive. On these grounds alone, this merger should be stopped. Handing this machine control over Warner's franchises and future output would allow one company to rewrite characters, retell history, redefine social norms, and control which ideas reach audiences. Majority Of North Carolina Trucking Licenses Issued To Foreigners Are Illegal: Duffy A review of non-domiciled commercial driver's licenses (CDLs) granted in North Carolina found that 54 percent were issued illegally, the Department of Transportation (DOT) said in a statement on Jan. 8. The review was conducted by the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) and is part of its ongoing nationwide audit of trucking licensing systems, the department said. DOT warned that if North Carolina does not “fix their serious failures” and revoke licenses issued illegally to foreign nationals, the department will withhold almost $50 million in federal funding. Source: zerohedge.com DOT Strips California Of $160 Million Over Foreign Truckers A showdown between the U.S. Department of Transportation and the State of California reached a breaking point on Wednesday after Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy announced the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration will withhold approximately $160 million in safety program money from the state. The move follows California's failure to meet a January 5 deadline to cancel more than 17,000 commercial truck driver's licenses that Duffy asserts were unlawfully issued by the state to foreign truckers. The California Department of Motor Vehicles announced in late December that it would delay the cancellation until March 6, but FMCSA did not agree to the extension. The $160 million penalty marks the first year of potential sanctions. Under federal law, if California continues to defy the FMCSA's Final Determination, the amount withheld could double in the second year. Source: zerohedge.com DOGE Yes, Dina Powell McCormick worked in the Trump administration. She served as the United States Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategy from 2017 to 2018 . She also held the role of Senior Advisor to the President for Entrepreneurship, Economic Growth, and the Empowerment of Women starting in January 2017 . For context, the Truth Social post you linked is Trump congratulating her on her new role as President and Vice Chairman of Meta (announced today, January 12, 2026)  1104 Q !xowAT4Z3VQ ID: 28003e No.967331 Apr 9 2018 12:09:25 (EST) Anonymous ID: db2d29 No.967224 Apr 9 2018 12:02:45 (EST) >>967123 YOU are being TRACKED. NO FB account required. WTF? Is it embedded in Android OS? This is BIGGER than you think. Agencies attached. Q >>967224 Think ‘Bridge’. GOOG. FB. TWITTER. IG. ‘Central’ algorithm. The stage had to be set. Q Geopolitical  U.K Asks Germany and France, EU NATO, to Support Expanded Presence in Greenland  President Trump wins again. Seriously folks, you would think that after all this time the Europeans would finally understand how President Trump manipulates the media cycle and gets them to do exactly what he wants – while they and the majority of their constituents think it's exactly the opposite.  This stuff is just too funny now. According to European media outlets, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in discussions with Germany and France to send a NATO alliance to Greenland to establish a stronger NATO military footprint. {LINK} The media present this, hilariously, as if European NATO is going to defend Greenland against President Trump and the USA military. {{INSERT SEVERAL LAUGHING EMOJIS HERE}} I mean, think about it rationally. The U.K, France and Germany are unwilling to send troops into Ukraine without the protection of the U.S. military.  But somehow, for some reason, the U.K, France and Germany are going to send troops to Greenland to defend against the U.S. military. The narrative sounds silly when put into context, right? So, President Trump starts talking about the U.S. taking aggressive unilateral action to secure Greenland as a strategic national security matter.  Suddenly, ‘Voila!' European NATO, under the auspices of defending their Denmark democracy, wakes up and says, ‘No, wait, you can't just take Greenland, that's bad.'  Then they assemble urgent talks to send EU NATO military resources to Greenland.  Exactly what President Trump has been requesting to formerly deaf ears. See how that works?  Source: theconservativetreehouse.com https://twitter.com/thestinkeye/status/2010481974985560110?s=20  notes… JSOC   Step 4: seize narrative and news cycles for a week or two while all the large accounts get their marching orders and post the same stuff over and over. The EU threatens to mobilize to “protect Greenland” and quietly discovers they cannot project meaningful power outside their continent without the US. Step 5: DJT walks back the outrageous solution (invasion) to the somewhat radical solution (purchase). The big accounts feel like they matter, the little accounts feel like the have been heard. DJT gets what he wanted all along, and Denmark gets a pile of money to fritter away buying votes with socialist BS. https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2010567080802738660?s=20 https://twitter.com/MarioNawfal/status/2010739799477354900?s=20 systemic instability. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2010605925342597449?s=20   Guard Corps (IRGC). https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2010532329303965733?s=20  Venezuela’s leader was a fugitive from US law enforcement and not a legitimate head of state, according to 60 different countries. He was apprehended, and Venezuela’s remaining leaders were asked to cooperate with US expectations. Greenland is likely to negotiate a compact of free association with the US and receive financial assistance, while maintaining self-governance, in exchange for military protection. Cuba is in rapid decline due to a loss of support from Venezuela (and other factors). China and Russia could offer assistance, but at considerable risk. Trump can wait and watch Cuba self-destruct, then come in and offer assistance to the Cuban people if and when they ask. Iran is in a similar situation to Cuba: a nation in rapid decline, with massive risk for Trump if he intervenes too quickly. The likely play there is to wait for the Ayatollah to flee. There would be no finger-pointing about “regime change” if the Islamic regime collapses on its own. Then, the US could offer assistance as an interim government is established. War/Peace https://twitter.com/WallStreetMav/status/2010435240079319153?s=20  specifically exclude any NATO troops from ever being put into Ukraine. All of these steps are designed to specifically undermine President Trump’s efforts at peace between Ukraine and Russia. The warmongers in Europe are determined to keep the war going as long as possible. They need to distract their voters with enemies so they don’t realize how Europe is collapsing economically and culturally. The European “leaders” desperately need enemies like Trump and Putin in order to point the finger and cast blame while things get worse in their own countries. Blame external forces, not their own policies. North Korean Hackers Using QR Codes to Steal Sensitive Information: FBI  North Korean state-sponsored cyber threat group Kimsuky is targeting American entities via a QR code scheme that can compromise sensitive information, the FBI said in a Jan. 8 alert. “As of 2025, Kimsuky actors have targeted think tanks, academic institutions, and both U.S. and foreign government entities with embedded malicious Quick Response (QR) codes in spearphishing campaigns,” the FBI stated. “This type of spearphishing attack is referred to as Quishing.” “Quishing (QR Code Phishing) is a phishing technique in which adversaries embed malicious URLs inside QR codes to force victims to pivot from their corporate endpoint to a mobile device, bypassing traditional email security controls.” In quishing campaigns, threat actors send QR images to targets as email attachments or embedded graphics, which typically evade URL inspection mechanisms. When targets scan the QR code, they are routed via redirectors to webpages that harvest their credentials. Such webpages impersonate Microsoft 365, Okta, or VPN portals. These operations typically end with hackers bypassing multifactor authentication (MFA) and hijacking cloud identities without triggering the usual “MFA failed” alerts. They can then establish persistence in the organizations' networks and use the compromised mailboxes to carry out further hacking operations, the agency warned. The FBI recommended that organizations adopt a multilayered security strategy to tackle the unique risks posed by QR hacking schemes. Source:  americafirstreport.com  https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2010464207192371542?s=20 Medical/False Flags Cancer Drugs Drive Nearly One-Fifth Of Pharma Sales  The global pharmaceutical industry’s revenue is increasingly concentrated in a handful of high-value drug classes, with oncology, diabetes/obesity treatments and immunology leading the charge. As Statista’s Tristan Gaudiat details below, according to estimates from Statista Market Insights, cancer drugs alone generated over $217 billion last year, making oncology the largest therapeutic segment, driving nearly one-fifth (18 percent) of all pharmaceutical sales. You will find more infographics at Statista Antidiabetic medicines rank second, with estimated sales of over $85 billion in 2025, contributing 7 percent to global market revenues. Source: zerohedge.com   then Premiums will FALL, by 50% or more, for most people. I want to go back to the three year window where you can get in there for ObamaCare where you won't pay as much. Don't expand ObamaCare. Congress must make Trump Rules permanent. These were President Trump's 2018 Short Term Plans Rule that President Obama terminated. All Congress has to do is say, ‘Look, the Short Term Plans can last up to 36 months, your Insurer can sell you a Renewal Guarantee so it can last even beyond that period, and you will get lower priced Insurance, better Insurance, Longer Term Insurance and, it doesn't cost Taxpayers a dime or, it won't destabilize ObamaCare.' Much simpler than what President Trump's advisers are selling him, much better to assuage the fears of nervous Democrats, because we had these Rules in place for six years, and ObamaCare did not crater. Subsidies will not solve this problem. Government should be capping what it spends on Healthcare at ZERO. Send them a check. No need for subsidies. Congress has to get out of the way of Private Insurance Companies. Give the money to the Consumers to buy directly from the Health Insurance Companies.” [DS] Agenda https://twitter.com/ElectionWiz/status/2010347486783693056?s=20 https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/2010445777676673233?s=20 https://twitter.com/RealAbs1776/status/2010549397969350845?s=20 https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2010554642107675018?s=20 https://twitter.com/DHSgov/status/2010362097562013779?s=20 https://twitter.com/RapidResponse47/status/2010540542220726775?s=20 https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2010537739767238962?s=20 https://twitter.com/TheStormRedux/status/2010374476819472477?s=20   dozens and dozens of those individuals to justice already. We're gonna keep hundreds of HSI officers there to continue to protect those children. Every day we get another individual that was sexual assault against a child. Sodomy against a child. I can't believe that the mayor and governor can defend allowing those people to go out there and victimize more of our children and grandchildren.” Infuriating. When see you see these dumbass leftists protesting in the streets, just know that they are out there protecting pedophiles. At this point, how can anyone claim that the Democrats are the “good guys”? https://twitter.com/AGPamBondi/status/2010755631972577560?s=20   rammed a Border Patrol vehicle, threatening the lives of federal law enforcement officers. He should NEVER have been in our country to begin with, and we will ensure he NEVER walks free in America again. President Trump's Plan https://twitter.com/amuse/status/2010487811732840449?s=20  A federal grand jury voted to indict the former FBI Director on two felony counts — and then three federal judges unraveled that indictment through conjecture, media narratives, personalized attacks on the United States Attorney, and procedural anomalies that have no precedent in federal criminal practice. https://twitter.com/RealSLokhova/status/2010247488826175976?s=20 https://twitter.com/realJeremyCarl/status/2010710384769151325?s=20 (function(w,d,s,i){w.ldAdInit=w.ldAdInit||[];w.ldAdInit.push({slot:13499335648425062,size:[0, 0],id:"ld-7164-1323"});if(!d.getElementById(i)){var j=d.createElement(s),p=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];j.async=true;j.src="//cdn2.customads.co/_js/ajs.js";j.id=i;p.parentNode.insertBefore(j,p);}})(window,document,"script","ld-ajs");

The steak on your plate might just be scraps glued together with "meat glue." In episode 849 of the Savage Perspective Podcast, host Robert Sikes sits down with Brett Peterson from Homestead Meat Company to expose the shocking truths of the meat processing industry. They discuss how foreign beef is falsely labeled "Product of USA," the myth of grass-fed beef, and how microplastics end up in your food. Brett shares how his family-owned business is providing a solution with complete farm-to-table traceability, offering high quality, locally raised beef without the misleading labels and industrial shortcuts. This conversation reveals what you're really eating and how to find meat you can trust.Want to build a strong, healthy body from the inside out? Learn the system to properly fuel your workouts and optimize your health in Robert's FREE Bodybuilding Masterclass. Sign up and start your transformation today. https://www.ketobodybuilding.com/registration-2Get Keto Brick: https://www.ketobrick.com/Subscribe to the podcast: https://open.spotify.com/show/42cjJssghqD01bdWBxRYEg?si=1XYKmPXmR4eKw2O9gGCEuQChapters:0:00 - Why the US Beef Herd is at a 50-Year Low 0:45 - How an Instagram DM Led to This Podcast 1:52 - Why I Bought a Meat Company to Feed My 7 Kids 3:25 - How to Buy Farm-Fresh Beef Without a Giant Freezer 5:58 - The Processing Plant That Changed Everything 6:33 - The Biggest Bottleneck for Small Cattle Ranchers7:36 - How a Small Processor Competes With the 6,000-Head-a-Day Giants 9:18 - State Inspected vs. USDA: What's the Difference for Consumers? 11:16 - Why Direct-to-Consumer is the Future of Quality Meat 12:24 - Why Are Beef Prices Skyrocketing? The Foreign Import Problem 15:21 - The "Grass-Fed" Lie: Is Your Beef Really What You Think It Is? 16:23 - Greenwashing: How Labels Deceive Health-Conscious Buyers 18:08 - Our Goal: Complete Farm-to-Table Traceability for Your Beef 19:39 - Grass-Fed vs. Grass-Finished: A Crucial Distinction 21:25 - Can You Choose Non-GMO Grain-Finished Beef? 23:05 - The Shocking Truth About What Factory Hogs Are Fed 25:14 - How Tech & Traceability Will Revolutionize the Beef Industry 28:03 - What Do USDA Beef Grades (Prime, Choice, Select) Actually Mean? 30:21 - Meat Glue: Is Your Steak Pieced Together From Scraps? 32:52 - How Microplastics Are Getting Into Your Store-Bought Meat 36:22 - The "Pink Slime" Scare: What Was It Really? 38:18 - What Preservatives Are In Your Sausage? 40:03 - Why Does Meat from Big Box Stores Make Me Sick? 42:00 - A Message From the Host, Robert Sikes 43:40 - The Celery Powder Trick: A Hidden Source of Nitrites 45:30 - How We Keep Our Ingredient Labels Clean & Honest 48:46 - Why You Shouldn't Skimp on Quality Food 50:50 - How Eating Clean Food Can Transform Your Health 52:32 - Why You Should Stop Eating Margarine Immediately 54:03 - The Truth About Canola (Rapeseed) Oil 55:24 - Why You Should Be Cooking With Tallow 59:09 - How Quality Food Leads to Effortless Weight Loss 1:01:23 - The Life-Changing Benefits of Building More Muscle 1:02:21 - How to Lock In Your Beef Price & Avoid Volatility 1:03:04 - The Nightmare of Shipping Frozen Meat 1:06:06 - Why Packaging Equipment Dictates Product Options 1:07:25 - The Humane Slaughter Process: An Inside Look 1:09:55 - Temple Grandin's Impact on Humane Animal Handling 1:11:39 - What is a HACCP Plan and Why Does It Matter for Food Safety? 1:18:00 - What a High-Quality Processing Plant Actually Looks Like 1:19:56 - Nose-to-Tail: How We Use the Entire Animal 1:22:25 - The Surprising Delicacy of Cow Tongue (Lengua) 1:23:24 - The Hunter's Code: Why You Should Respect the Animal 1:26:09 - Where to Find Homestead Meat Co. & Get a Discount

US consumers have basically stopped using their credit cards. According to the Fed's latest data, revolving consumer credit declined again, the third time over the last seven months. And one of those other three was basically zero. There has been a clear change in attitude which means Americans aren't just feeling pessimistic, they're taking action about it. That is why consumer revolving credit is a critical cyclical signal, it draws together all the major components.  Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------What if your gold could actually pay you every month… in MORE gold?That's exactly what Monetary Metals does. You still own your gold, fully insured in your name, but instead of sitting idle, it earns real yield paid in physical gold. No selling. No trading. Just more gold every month.Check it out here: https://monetary-metals.com/snider---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU