Podcasts about Tied

Daily Word - Have you been praying for success in entrepreneurship but it seems like your prayers are not being answered? If so and you're married, then check the state of your marriage. You see, the Word of God teaches us that if our marriages are in disrepair, that will hinder our prayers. This means that there is a direct connection between the success of your marriage and your entrepreneurial success. Links - Join, Partner

No matter what's coming, you can be ready for your family and others.http://PrepareWithJustin.comMy new book, "Good News: Hope and Encouragement for Trying Times" is out now!Grab your signed copy today.http://JustinBarclay.com/storeGet the Good News Letter:http://JustinBarclay.com/GoodNews

In this week's State of Criminal Justice, we'll cover the NYPD's connections to a notorious white supremacist group, the unfair treatment of missing Black women, and how thousands of police killings have gone uncounted. And in our New Ground segment, we'll discuss our support for an incarcerated survivor named Brandy Scott. PushBlack exists because we saw we had to take matters into our own hands, especially when it comes to protecting our communities. As a nonprofit, we rely on small donations from subscribers like you. You make PushBlack happen with your contributions. Most people do 5 or 10 bucks a month, but everything makes a difference. Thanks for supporting the work.  Donate Here: https://stateofcriminaljustice.com NYPD Tied to White Supremacists Police ties to white surpemacists expose a racist revolving door Missing Black Women Matter TooWhen Black women go missing, urgency isn't the media's top priority How Thousands of Police Killings Go UncountedPolicing is more dangerous than you may think and uncounted deaths show why New Ground: Fighting for Brandy ScottWe're better when we come together to fight for women like Brandy

Episode 145More bad news from the Vatican. This week we're going to talk about a new explosive and very well documented report from the Lepanto Institute about Vatican and USCCB ties to Communism, the culture of death, and even witchcraft. ResourcesIn an effort to provide you with the best, most helpful experience we can, any resource mentioned in The Cantankerous Catholic podcast will always be listed in this section. Register for our next free Sharing the Catholic Faith webinar: https://webinar.getresponse.com/BhGUM/the-resurrection-the-four-last-things--the-holy-spirit (The Resurrection, the Four Last Things & the Holy Spirit). (There will be a video recording for those who can't attend the live event, but you must register to get the link.) https://app.getresponse.com/survey.html?u=BhGUM&survey_id=1647905 (PODCAST SURVEY) https://wwb.gr8.com/ (Sixpack System Bulletin Inserts) Lepanto Institute https://lepantoin.org/ (Lepanto Institute site) https://lepantoin.org/subscribe/ (Lepanto Institute newsletter) Lepanto Institute Report: https://lepantoin.org/vatican-agency-directly-tied-to-communism-abortion-and-witchcraft/ (Vatican Agency Directly Tied to Communism, Abortion, and Idolatry) https://cantankerouscatholic.com/evil-bishops/ (Catholic Bogus Bucks) They're free! The Wanderer Catholic Newspaper. Get one month for one dollar by texting the word “news” to 830-331-5729. https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=85YEDSUJHVN42&source=url (Help Keep the Joe Sixpack—The Every Catholic Guy Apostolate Alive) FOR CHECKS: make checks payable to Cassock Media, P.O. Box 41, Villa Ridge, Missouri 63089 https://app.getresponse.com/site2/joe_sixpack_answers/?u=BhGUM&webforms_id=YZQe (I Want To Learn More About The Catholic Church!) https://mariancatechist.com/product/basic-catholic-catechism-course/ (Marian Catechist Apostolate Basic Course) https://www.avoicelikebutter.com/ (Rick Stender)—Official Voice of The Cantankerous Catholic SubscribeMake sure you never miss an episode of The Cantankerous Catholic by subscribing through one of these links, or wherever else you get your podcasts. https://thecantankerouscatholic.captivate.fm/listen (Subscribe to The Cantankerous Catholic here) Catholic News Notes#5 https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/southwest-cancels-more-than-a-thousand-flights-cites-air-traffic-control-issues (Southwest cancels more than a thousand flights, cites air-traffic control issues) #4 https://www.dailywire.com/news/fauci-on-airline-vaccine-mandates-not-immediately-but-everything-on-the-table (Fauci On Airline Vaccine Mandates: Not ‘Immediately,' But ‘Everything On The Table') #3 https://www.theblaze.com/news/mark-robinson-takes-stand-lgbt-comments (NC Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson takes defiant stand as he faces calls to resign after calling homosexuality 'filth': 'I will not back down') #2 https://www.dailywire.com/news/biden-admin-cancels-numerous-border-wall-contracts-as-u-s-faces-historic-illegal-immigration-surge (Biden Admin Cancels Numerous Border Wall Contracts As U.S. Faces Historic Illegal Immigration Surge) #1 https://www.catholicnewsagency.com/news/249244/nancy-pelosi-leaves-mass-in-rome-due-to-security-concerns (Nancy Pelosi leaves Mass in Rome due to security concerns) Catholic BootcampThis week Joe Sixpack—The Every Catholic Guy's Catholic Bootcamp is titled Lazarus. Catholic QuotesThis week's quote is from St. Anthony of Padua. Catholic StoriesThis episode features a story about a monk's dream. Joe Sixpack's Stuffhttps://www.joesixpackanswers.com/ (JoeSixpackAnswers.com) https://cantankerouscatholic.com/product/secrets-of-the-catholic-faith/ (Secrets of the Catholic Faith) by Joe Sixpack—The Every Catholic Guy https://cantankerouscatholic.com/product/the-lay-evangelists-handbook-how-any-catholic-can-evangelize-anyone/ (The Lay Evangelist's Handbook) by Joe Sixpack—The Every Catholic Guy... Support this podcast

EP STARTS AT MIN 33* Fentanyl is a powerful, rapid-acting synthetic opioid first synthesized more than 50 years ago. At the time, and to this day, it has served as an invaluable resource for medicine. It is the opioid most commonly used to initialize anesthesia worldwide, and for good reason. When used correctly, it has minimal cardiovascular effects, does not stress the body, is relatively short acting, is easy and inexpensive to synthesize, and is now familiar to clinicians working in operative medicine all over the planet. In the last 20 to 30 years, the development of new and noninvasive drug delivery systems has also enabled fentanyl to become extremely effective for both around-the-clock pain management as well as treating sudden breakthrough pain. Unfortunately, if you've heard of fentanyl recently it was most likely related to some form of drug overdose. While the drug itself has revolutionized medicine, its abuse in conjunction with the nationwide opioid epidemic has led to a remarkable increase in drug-related overdoses and deaths. No guest this week, this shit we ride on our own folks. Sources: https://apnews.com/article/2deede497fb943cda4f6f709547243f3 https://www.nytimes.com/1988/12/25/us/synthetic-heroin-seen-as-cause-in-18-deaths.html http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/health/2008-07-24-fentanyl_N.htm https://www.michaelshouse.com/opiate-rehab/history-of-opiates/ https://www.cdc.gov/opioids/data/analysis-resources.html https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/65/wr/mm6533a2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6339a1.htm https://www.michaelshouse.com/opiate-rehab/history-of-opiates/ https://www.jpain.org/article/S1526-5900(14)00905-5/pdf https://www.seattletimes.com/nation-world/man-receives-life-for-dealing-fentanyl-that-led-to-overdoses/ https://www.statnews.com/2019/12/03/oxycontin-history-told-through-purdue-pharma-documents/ https://www.dea.gov/press-releases/2019/02/11/dangerous-fentanyl-masked-counterfeit-oxycodone-20000-pills-seized-bronx https://www.vice.com/en/article/v7exvx/fentanyl-is-wreaking-havoc-in-tijuana-is-the-rest-of-mexico-next https://www.vice.com/en/article/ev998e/americas-new-deadliest-drug-fentanyl

CLICK TO SUBSCRIBE ON YOUR FAVORITE PODCATCHER CONTENT WARNING: Discussion of sexism, workplace abuse, homophobia, sexual harassment, slut-shaming, misogyny. We've got a new series this week to talk about the spectacle and grandeur of the movie musical! And we're starting with the movie that saved the entire genre, and one that's refreshing and surprising. Tied for the oldest film we've watched for this series, we braced ourselves for cheesiness, dated references, and problematic subject matter. And yes, this movie has touches of all of those, but it manages to avoid most of the eye-rolling stereotypes we're used to from a backstage musical. It probably helps that this is, you know, one of the very first times anyone put that story on screen, but it's not just the novelty that pulls this movie through. The acting is stagey but thoughtful, the directing is really inventive and on point for the story being told, and my goodness, the dancing, there's just nothing like it. Buckle on your tap shoes and get ready to run the number again as we kick off our movie musical series with 1933's 42nd Street this week on Macintosh & Maud Haven't Seen What?! You can email us with feedback at macintoshandmaud@gmail.com, or you can connect with us on Instagram, Twitter and Facebook. Also please subscribe, rate and review the show on your favorite podcatcher, and tell your friends. Intro and outro music taken from the Second Movement of Ludwig von Beethoven's 9th Symphony. Licensed under an Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 Hong Kong (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 HK) license. To hear the full performance or get more information, visit the song page at the Internet Archive. Excerpt of "Lullaby of Broadway" dance sequence is taken from the motion picture Gold Diggers of 1935. 1935 © Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. Excerpt from the motion picture 42nd Street are © 1933 Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc. All Rights Reserved.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves didn't generate much offense over two games in Milwaukee, and the Brewers were limited to two runs on one swing over 18 innings. But it was enough to head to Atlanta deadlocked, 1-1; will they play another game in Milwaukee this year? Brewers reporter Tom Haudricourt and host JR Radcliffe look at Game 1 and Game 2, including the Rowdy Tellez home run, the struggles of the big boppers, and the potential of finding a spot in the lineup for one of the few hot hitters, Luis Urías. Will Milwaukee's starting pitching depth ultimately give the Brewers an edge in Atlanta? Will Adrian Houser be used in the same multi-inning relief role as Game 1? If Milwaukee does move on, is it safe to assume that Brent Suter gets a playoff roster spot back? Plus, can we just change how ground-rule doubles work? Music intro: https://www.bensound.com/royalty-free-music.

The Dodgers split the first two games of the NLDS in San Francisco. Game 1 was not fun at all but Game 2 was very fun. Cody Bellinger and AJ Pollock were some strong contributors despite some negative chatter. Now the Dodgers have a big advantage in Game 3 with Max Scherzer on the mound and the Los Angeles crowd behind them. Locked On Dodgers, the daily podcast about the Los Angeles Dodgers with hosts Jeff Snider and Vince Samperio, is part of the Locked On Podcast Network. Be sure to subscribe to Locked On Dodgers in the Audacy podcast app or wherever you get your podcasts, and come back every weekday morning and spend your morning commute with two of the biggest Dodger fans you'll ever meet. Thanks for making Locked On Dodgers your first listen every day, and please tell your friends! Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Built Bar Built Bar is a protein bar that tastes like a candy bar. Go to builtbar.com and use promo code “LOCKED15,” and you'll get 15% off your next order. BetOnline AG There is only 1 place that has you covered and 1 place we trust. Betonline.ag! Sign up today for a free account at betonline.ag and use that promocode: LOCKEDON for your 50% welcome bonus. Rock Auto Amazing selection. Reliably low prices. All the parts your car will ever need. Visit RockAuto.com and tell them Locked On sent you. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Milwaukee Brewers head back to Atlanta tied up with the Braves 1-1 in the NLCS. We recap Game 2, talk contextual Brewers road stats vs Braves home stats, give our predictions, key things to watch, touch on the Willy Adames signed jersey giveaway and more. Ladies & Gentlemen, you are listening to the IKE Brewers Podcast Make sure to enter our SIGNED Willy Adames Jersey giveaway! Send @IKE_Brewers a DM for details! Don't forget to check out IKE Badgers Podcast for player interviews, game recaps, trends and all things Wisconsin Badgers. View our new website at IKEPODCASTNETWORK.COM Follow the IKE Brewers Podcast on Spotify. Subscribe today on Apple Podcasts. Follow @IKE_Brewers on twitter @WelcometoIKE

Alex Pavlovic and Cole Kuiper breakdown the Giants' Game 2 loss to the Dodgers. Buster Posey became San Francisco's all-time leader in postseason hits but Kevin Gausman and Dominic Leone struggled in the sixth inning en route to a 9-2 loss. The Giants now head to LA with the series tied at a game apiece.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Aaron and John enter the week with a TIED record for their picks against the spread and make their picks for Week 5. Then John shares his fantasy starts/sits for week 5.

OBEDIENCE EP 18: Your obedience Is tied to someone's PEACE by Health, Fitness and Nutrition

As our state continues to deal with a surge of COVID-19 cases, Idaho doctors are seeing alarming trends tied to COVID-19 cases in pregnant women—including maternal deaths, increase incidences of stillbirth and neonatal intensive care unit patients that are sicker than usual.

EP277- Holiday 2021 Preview Holiday 2021 will be one of the most uncertain holiday events in modern retail history. Major disruptions to the supply chain, the last mille, and to consumer behavior as a result of covid, will make this year extremely hard to predict and manage for brands and retailers. Will shipageddon 2.0 play out again this year? Will the supply chain become the supply pain? With Amazon and Target starting holiday deals early in October, and consumer still looking for scarce inventory late into January or even February, Holiday 2021 is likely to be 5 months long. In this episode we break down all the potential issues, and make some prediction about how it might all play out. http://jasonandscot.com Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing. Episode 277 of the Jason & Scot show was recorded on Sunday October 3rd, 2021. Transcript Jason: [0:24] Welcome to the Jason and Scot show this is episode 277 being recorded on Sunday October third 2021 I'm your host Jason retailgeek Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scot Wingo. Scot: [0:40] Hey Jason and welcome back Jason and Scot show listeners, Jason this is a really good time for listeners to pause because we're going to do a deep dive here so that means it can be a little bit of a longer episode. And leave us that five-star review this episode is going to be so good you can go ahead and pre leave us the five star review so we'll wait for second for you to come back. All right thanks for doing that that really helps us out as we get the word out about the show, Jason last year at and I went back and had a one of our many interns look at this and it was exactly this time last year I think was actually October 2nd recording this in October 3rd so it's a pretty darn close. We coined and we were doing our annual holiday preview and we both coined and predicted ship again and that is where we saw pretty early on I think before a lot of the rest of the folks in the industry that there was going to be both a surge in digital adoption due to covid plus the normal holiday increase from e-commerce and that that was going to more than absorb all of the available last-mile demand and that's the why we coined ship again and it happened and it was bad but we all survived and made it through and hopefully the folks listening to this show got in front of that both on their business and personal side. [1:58] Well this year we want to use this episode and do a deep dive into what that's going to look like this year and it's a more complex situation last year was pretty easy to lie to read those tea leaves because you know we were already pretty close to capacity before covid and it was kind of pretty easy prediction to say that we're going to far exceed the ability to deliver the packages. This year we have a lot to unpack for you spoiler alert it's going to be worse than last year much worse because not only is it that last little piece of the whole digital retail chain of events The Last Mile that's going to be a problem but it's all the other pieces leading into it that are going to be a problem something we call the supply chain but this year we are going to call it the supply pain so we're going to peel the onion on this and first we're going to look at the economic setup heading into holiday 21 then we're going to look at the global state of supply chain then we're going to look at some of the holiday trims that are kind of factors we think that are going to tie into this last some of the pontificate errs are out with their forecasts and we're going to go through those and kind of see what we think about those. Jason want it could suck kick it off with the economic setup coming into holiday 21. Jason: [3:15] Yeah awesome Scott so first of all let me start by saying on the macroeconomic picture most of the professional analysts that look at this. Are pretty uniform in feeling like the consumer is generally in a good place that the economy is in a pretty good place and they are all very bullish on the consumers ability to spend this holiday. And I say that because my own personal feeling is that there's a little more uncertainty cooked in there there certainly are some encouraging favorable things. And there's a few worrisome things and I think. What's going to become the theme for all of these sections we talked about today is there's a significant amount of uncertainty there's a lot of things that could swing either way and have a dramatic impact on holiday so. It is what it is but. Sort of giving you how I look at the macroeconomic situation the first thing we'll talk about is inflation and there's a bunch of ways to look at inflation but a simple one is there's this thing called the Consumer Price Index which kind of. Factors in how much of each good consumers purchase and how much prices are raising for that, and the the CPI is it about 5.25% right now so that's pretty significant we more expensive Goods that consumers are having to pay. And ordinarily that inflation can be problematic for the economy a couple of things to know though. [4:43] If you kind of look at the shape of that CPI it actually is going down a little bit from a peak in July and so possible we've seen the. Peak of inflation and it's starting to come back down. Inflation is a mixed bag for retailers and holiday because they get more money for everything they sell they tend to sell less stuff but make more on each in certain circumstances it can be more profitable. Um but you know the goods are costing more we've got this 5.25 percent inflation. We also though have a pretty significant increase in wages so people are getting paid more for their work, particularly low-income people, are getting paid more for work retailers and warehouses and all kinds of companies are having to raise their wages to compete for the for this labor force that's been hard to find right now and so, wages are going up and in general the analysts would call those two things Awash that that consumers. Are getting bigger paychecks and they're having to spend more on their necessities and that at the moment that's about Break Even so two interesting things to know. [5:52] A kind of predictor of future spending is this this huge survey that University of Michigan does every month the consumer confidence index. And when when we were kind of in the peak of recovery from the first wave of covid-19, that index was a leading indicator that said consumers were starting to feel good about the economy and it hit like it's this index it over a hundred today it's sitting at 71, which is the lowest point since January of 2019 it's not, like a historic low or anything like that that you know you go like oh it's way below normal, but it does appear that consumers are in general feeling less good about the economy than they were, um you know just a month or two ago now there's a bunch of political news out right now and there was fear of government shutdown that we've already averted and those kinds of things have a big impact on the consumer index oh. [6:49] Um I that consumer index doesn't have a perfect correlation with spending so I don't spend too much time thinking about it but just to know, that's a number that had been favorable and is kind of shrinking down. A big one we talk about is unemployment because people don't have jobs it's hard for them to spend on Goods obviously at the beginning of the pandemic we had a huge spike in unemployment, unemployment is actually pretty good right now we're at five point two percent. The kind of pre-pandemic average was about four so we're not all the way back to pre-pandemic average but that pre-pandemic. [7:22] Point was a historic low so historically 5.2 percent is pretty decent for unemployment. Um so like most most analysts would say that's a favorable indicator the two things to know there is, that's based on the people that are seeking jobs and not getting it there actually is a ton of people that kind of took themselves out of the workforce we. Fully understand where all those people went but a big chunk of those people were second incomes for household so like a lot of women. That like maybe don't have as good a help childcare as they had before or more school challenges or things and so they haven't gone back to the workforce and many of them are seeking work so they don't show up in the unemployment number so. Just be aware like household incomes are somewhat stressed because of that factor and then as we've talked about before on this show like as of July. People that make over $60,000 a year the unemployment is actually ten percent better than it was before the pandemic so they're doing great. And the low-income people that are making less than $30,000 a year their unemployment is still 21 percent lower than it was. The beginning of the pandemic so so a little bit of a bifurcated recovery on the jobs thing. [8:38] One of the reasons that we historically have that we had high unemployment was because there's all these rich benefits this enhanced unemployment benefits that people got that all expired last week. So if people were staying at home because they could make more and unemployment that that justification probably ended. The bad news is that ended in 26 States over two months ago and in general the data shows that people did not rush back to work when it ended. So there's not necessarily a reason to think a ton more people are going to rush back to work now that that it's ended everywhere but we'll have to see. Um the other macroeconomic things all these natural disasters are negative to the economy so you know when hurricane Ida takes a hundred billion dollars out of the economy that's a bummer. Um [9:25] Another hugely favorable one in the one that most of us are hanging our hats on that are looking for a good holiday is the savings rate and this is the most unprecedented recession of all times. Unemployment you know went way up at the peak of the pandemic but so did savings which has never happened before, and part of that was because we had all this stimulus money we were pouring into the economy but the savings rate normally hovers around 8% it shot up to 32 percent during the peak of the pandemic, it's way off of that Peak it's a nine point six which is still a little higher than it was before the pandemic and that. All that extra money that a lot of household socked away because they got the stimulus and they spent less during the the peak of the pandemic. [10:18] Arguably puts consumers in a good place to spend for this holiday the counter-argument would be all that stimulus. Is mostly over there still are you know very lumpy employment situation and a lot of that savings has dwindled, um so we'll see how it goes, um but then the last fact I'm going to throw up before I go at Scott get a word in edgewise is that the stock market has done phenomenally right and, we're way up from the pre-pandemic level and so the investor class and people that have you know as a meaningful portion of their wealth. Tied to the market. Did terrific right and so if there is economic uncertainty and instability in this economy it's bifurcated and it's the lower-income people that like do not have equity in the stock market. Um there were her but roll all that up and the the professional analysts feel like. Macroeconomic situation all to all in is pretty good and of course when rich people do well that help certain sectors of the economy quite a bit right and at the moment luxury and jewelry are doing phenomenally well for example so. That's kind of my snapshot of the macroeconomy Scott anything you'd violently disagree with or anything you pay particular attention to. Scot: [11:45] I think I think that's right I think you know there's a lot of folks that feel the inflation the CPI isn't the right inflation number it's kind of this old metric. This basket of goods and doesn't capture a lot of things you know there's, I follow a lot of the crypto people and, so there's been a huge wealth creation through crypto and that whole world which is kind of interesting and then you know there's there's a feeling that the FED has pumped so much cash into the system that is just sloshing around and kind of crazy ways which is why you saw that savings rate kind of go up as high as it did and you know they're they're talk track goes that that's why we're not seeing as much employment where folks have taken so those free free dollars and and you know. Done something with it so that they don't need a job now or they're going to be less likely to enter the workforce but I think at all. Yeah I would say I agree with the analysts on that it's going to be a pretty good holiday. [12:51] But I think the problem we'll get into that as I just don't think there's going to be a thing to buy so I don't not sure if it matters. Jason: [12:56] So step one American families probably have some money to spend okay so now as we've already alluded to the next challenges what is the supply chain look like and what could they spend it on and Scott what's your kind of read there. Scot: [13:13] Yes Supply chains from those things we always talk about but then you know in in your mind you have this kind of linkage these things linked together I remember as a kid when you would cut out the little construction paper strips and make the little chain to go around. The holiday tree there II reminds me of that and we kind of vaguely talk about it as this big, big thing and we want to really unpack it on this episode so as a summary you know there's when you make a product let's say it's one time in a million familiar with right now is a vehicle that which is one of the more complex products or even a. You're relatively simple product like an electronic toy or an apparel item or almost anything it's going to have first of all it. It's going to have component parts right so there's going to be some form of pieces that go into that I kind of mentally think of them as the Lego blocks that make up that item so if it's a cool trendy trench coat there's going to be obviously fabric buttons may be a variety of fabrics and things like that so there's generally it's hard to make any product without there being at least 10 inputs and then many times, thousands if not tens or hundreds of thousands as you get into like iPhones and vehicles and stuff like that. [14:33] So that's important to remember is each one of those component parts has a supply chain right and you can't make a widget until its component pieces are all there so what happens is we're seeing this really interesting and it's hard to know the root cause or theirs some of the economic stuff you talked about is part of it we're we're just having labor shortages that cause things but then you know we'll talk about some of this there's we import a lot of our goods from China and they're having all kinds of issues of their own there's covid related things non-covered related things but generally let's think about the supply chain and kind of the broad sense of you have typically the bulk of goods are made offshore some of them are are made on Shore but let's kind of assume in this example A lot of these products are coming from offshore or at least income the many of the components maybe there's some assembly in the US but at least the the components for a any widget are made offshore so that's number one so that has to be made in a factory somewhere and then shipped here so there's the port of origin so it leaves a port in a foreign land and then needs to come on its way to the United States for a consumer to buy it. That Journey can go a variety of different ways will to it can go by boat or air, the standard way that products are moved is through containers so you by everyone seemed these containers there's all these cool. [15:57] We just opened up here a restaurant container Village kind of a thing so you have those containers their specialized boats that carry these and and or you can put them on airplanes. So then they get on a boat let's say the bulk of products do go by boat there is some by are then they have to go over the sea and then they get to a destination port so there's you know there's two ports involved with every product that comes across in a container then it has to be unloaded from that boat you've probably seen these giant cranes somewhere. [16:29] Fun Star Wars fact those are the that's where George Lucas got the idea for at-ats he saw some of the cranes and one of the ports on the west coast and thought of what if you had a giant walking robots that look like that so those have to be unloaded and then typically you're going to put them on either so then when they get to the United States in one of the ports they're going to be offloaded onto either a truck and then part of the truck that's really critical in this is called a chassis so if you've ever seen you've probably driven by a million of these container trucks but if you take the container off that's the chassis part as you've got the front part of the truck, then you've got the chassis which holds the container and then the container sits squarely on there it's pretty clever if you think about how it's all been designed or that same container can be put over on rail so there are specialized railroad cars for carrying containers and then and then the product goes on its way then it makes it to a warehouse and then it goes to from that fulfillment center it gets distributed many times do a couple maybe from a big kind of inbound fulfillment center to some regionals to some locals and maybe even one step closer to kind of hyper local and then it gets into the last mile delivery part of the world so it gets onto the virtual shelves and then is sold and goes into that last month so [17:52] There's there's a lot that has to happen right in there and we're going to go through some of the things that are not working right now and you know like any any chain any. There's at least common denominator problem so all that can work great and if you don't have Last Mile Vehicles then you've got a problem or, the factories aren't making things fast enough then the whole chain is compressed and you've got this other set of problems and you know where we are now is almost every single part of that chain I just walked through is is kind of you know sport or in a bad situation right now and we'll take you through some examples. Jason let's start with factories what's going on there. Jason: [18:34] Yeah well a couple challenges with factories so obviously the we have the most factories in China and the good news with China is. Covid is mostly under control they definitely have had a. A spike from from Delta they almost had had down a zero before Delta. [18:55] Because of their their concerns about the the virus they have China has what's called the zero covid policy and what that means is. If they have a single case of covid they will they will shut down an entire business or. Even a sector of business so while there's not huge outbreaks of covid and factories right now. There have been a bunch of examples where only a few cases of covid showed up and that caused a factory to be closed for two weeks so there there have been some disruptions with the Chinese factories. But the bigger problem has been that it, from before and in the very beginning of covid a lot of manufacturing got Diversified and moved out of China right and so the second biggest manufacturer of apparel behind China right now is Vietnam. Vietnam has had a lot of trouble with Delta and about a third of the factories in Vietnam are shut down right now so a lot of the factories that make goods are not making as many Goods either because. [19:56] They don't have very good access to vaccines and they're having covid problems or they have really rigid government policies like China. And then forecasting a future problem that's a huge Debbie Downer, is China is actually experiencing a real energy crisis right now and China always has to kind of, ration electricity and they give quotas at the beginning of every year to these factories and factories often have to shut down because they exceed their quotas. Well this year like they have less. [20:31] Energy capacity in China for a variety of reasons in the cost of coal has gone way up. Um there's there's fixed pricing for for energy in China and said the producers can't charge you more even though the cold cost more and so they have less incentive to make it which means there's less energy and so there's a lot of fear that there's going to be a ton more slowdowns of Chinese factories because of this looming energy crisis so all of those things. Our kind of conspiring to make like the amount of product available from the factories like. Significantly inconsistent and hard to. Scot: [21:12] And then say the call thing and because I have read a couple articles on this and I haven't under Center so they're in an attempt to be green they've lowered the price of coal so cold manufacturers have stopped making goals that. Jason: [21:26] So I think that's what the the green thing has a significant impact here but the the communist country they set the the. It's a. [21:37] The energy industry is a tightly regulated industry and so the prices are fixed so that so the government decides the beginning of the year what the price of electricity is going to be. [21:47] So then these factories are only allowed to charge that price or plus or minus 10% of that price, and coal is four hundred percent more expensive so a lot of factories don't want a lot of power plants don't want to make energy electricity from coal right now because they can't do it profitably, they don't have permission from the government to charge for hundred percent for their electricity but they're having to pay 400 percent for their coal so. There is less production because of that it is also absolutely true that China has some, zero emissions by wants a 2060 things and they have concrete milestones in place every year and so even before cover that constrain how much electricity they were going to be able to make this year with current production means. And it meant that factories had a quota, um and and often that means Factories do periodically shut down when they use up their quota factories are rushing to get more efficient so they're all its, it's like everything it creates all these Downstream effects whatever equipment you use to make your stuff there's probably a more energy efficient version of that equipment that you now want to buy. But it's hard to get your hands on so all the factories are competing for the more energy-efficient versions of all this this materials, but the it's likely that more factories are going to be shut down for longer this year than ever before because of energy shortages. Scot: [23:14] And I saw an interesting graphic I forget I think is there Bloomberg or Wall Street Journal where the government then said well if you're going to shut down energy they created these zones and they put like a lot of that Apple manufacturing plants in The Greener zones that we get more power but then they neglected a lot of the input parts so. But the factories that can make the iPhone 13 or operating but they're sitting there idle because the the red zones that aren't getting a lot of power or only able to run like half a shift are. Jason: [23:44] Per your point like even if the Lego factories allowed to make Lego castles if they're not allowed to make red blocks. It's tough to make a lot of weight so castles so that that is yeah. It's a mess and then to give you an idea how cute it is normally they only shut down the the industrial areas there's so much constrained energy now that they're starting to shut down residential areas so people are. Are like having their power in their residences turned off as well. Scot: [24:14] Interesting and then I've been tracking ports here in the US very closely but what are you seeing at ports of origin in other countries. Jason: [24:24] Well this is one we're very publicly this zero covid policy that China has instituted has come into play. So that that all the biggest ports in the world are in China the third largest port in the world is divided into four terminals one of the four terminals was just shut down for two weeks because of a single. Positive test of covid and so that again to the extent that the factories are making stuff and they need to load up all those containers, um if they have to stop loading for 2 weeks that that creates a real lumpiness in the in the supply chain and that is a particularly hard thing to predict right like if you're just saying like oh man of. Factory you know has a bunch of sick workers it's going to shut down you can kind of watch that and see it coming but what you can't see coming is, you know a very small number of cases having a very material impact on the supply chain like these these ports that are shutting down and so the. The those impacts are sort of outsized on the supply chain at the moment. Scot: [25:34] Yeah and then so so now we've got our products you know, if they can make it through this Gauntlet that we've already laid out they're going to get on a boat and they are going to go get packed into a container and there's a fun if you're a business you're trying to get as much of this product into a container as possible because it's pretty much all you can eat once you once you buy a container there's fractional containers whatnot and because of there's a shortage in containers and then the cost to send these containers has gone way up so right now as we record this the cost there's actually an index you can look at this so if you were will put a link to show notes but if you Google Freight Fredo's fre IG HT o s index there's an index that tracks this and we have hit a record of 20500 86 average dollars to send a container and that's twice what it was in July of this year and that was twice of what it was in January so we effectively you know in July it was about ten thousand dollars and in January as about five thousand dollars now another interesting Factor here is depending on how many units you put in a container you divide that that unit cost right so if you're putting I'll keep the math easy a thousand units in one of these containers which would be something relatively big you're going to you know you just added effectively another. Yeah. [26:57] Let's see I should have smelled your $15 to the product just in kind of Landing cost with this with this increase so whatever your cost is on a per unit it's gone up effectively 4X since January so that's a factor to consider. [27:15] And what I'm what I'm hearing from people on the ground is you'll go bid and you kind of get get in front of this number right now so you're actually out there bidding today 30,000 to get a container and then you think you'll have one and then they'll say oh you know we need to re-evaluate that because they can the shipping company I'm talking to is now saying is 33,000 so there's this like running auction to get. Space on these boats that are coming over because of some of the rest of the supply chain that will talk about so. [27:46] So how about are so that's that's what it looks like by boat what are you seeing on the air side. Jason: [27:51] Yeah and obviously the most cost-effective way to get all this stuff here is via boat so you'd prefer to do that but when the boats aren't available or if you you need stuff considerably faster like a, in Good Times it takes about about 40 days to move a container from China to the west coast of the US so. Some Goods do come via air and little known fact 50% of Air Freight that comes into the u.s. comes on the bottom of, passenger airplanes right so it's not it's not FedEx and UPS planes flying from China to the US cargo planes it's, it's the bottom of these passenger planes and guess what is not happening right now is. International so there's just way less flights and said there's way less capacity for this Air Freight and so both, because there's more demand for Air Freight because of all the problems with the ocean Freight and because there's less Supply that the air option has you know been dramatically diminished from where it would normally be. Scot: [28:56] Yep so then so then you decide okay well I've got to put on a boat you do that you wait your 40 days and then what you find out is your delayed for a very long time because the heart problem is the u.s. ports are all pretty much maxed out so we've kind of done this very big under-investing in our ports so one of our our biggest one is in Los Angeles at Long Beach and then we have Savannah New York New Jersey and then there's a lot of secondary and tertiary ports but those are the big ones and there's another index that Bloomberg, puts out which is effectively the number of boats that are anchored offshore and you know what you want to you never want to Anchor these things because effectively they're just sitting there all that product just sitting there you know. Doing nothing waiting and the reason the reason why they're sitting there is the ports are they can't unload the products fast enough. [29:55] There's a million reasons why we'll talk about that in a second but this just actually ticked up over there's over 40 boats, and this is interesting I've read a data point this has 74 Los Angeles and 40 I think there's 40 anchored in 30 actively kind of being done there's these Maps if you look at my Twitter feed I just tweeted one to just show you know the port and the congestion there's just all these boats just sitting there waiting to come on shore I have a friend that lives in LA and they can just as they drive around they can just see the boats out there just fact it's very unusual time frame. Jason: [30:30] One of the supply chain guys I work with suggested that we should start a new company Uber barge where we deliver like In and Out Burgers to all these boats that are stuck offshore. Scot: [30:39] Someone someone tried to actually get a helicopter to go out one to get their container often. You can't do that because if you've ever seen these things are stacked like 50 deeper someone is crazy you can't just say I really need that one right there so this this index just ticked over 70 for the first time ever since has been created which is just just crazy. [31:00] And so why is it taking so long to offload the boats well we have under invested in these things and then we have this discontinued problem with the supply chain. Number one there's not enough people to I think it's longshoreman there's a lot of these Union type jobs that you hear about that do this so there's a longshoreman or the ones that offload products for a long time due to covid they were only running like half the number of shifts that used to so they have actually spun that up, they're running more shifts but now there's a shortage of chassis and then because of that. [31:37] You know if you don't have chassis you can still off load the boat but now you have to put it into kind of medium term or short term storage and then all that is full so there's not enough chassis there's not enough truck drivers if there is chassis and then if there's not chassis all the storage is full and then, the one when a product comes off the boat at the Port it can either go by truck or rail the whole rail system is all jammed up as well the this is interesting I read this one article that. Near you in the Joliet train yard which is one of the biggest ones in middle of the country they're so jammed up they have over 8,000 containers stacked there waiting for more training capacity and then some some days the trains are backed up for 25 miles waiting as they're loading these containers on there to try to do this, normal turnaround for a chassis to go at a port to deliver something to where it's going and come back is three and a half days due to all these various shortages that is extended out to 17 days so that's pretty crazy. A big factor in this port jam up is also the shortage of drivers and I call them CDL Drivers which is a commercial driver's license. [32:49] To drive one of these 18-wheelers that's going to carry a container you have to have a you know a certification for a certain type of vehicle there's It's relatively, no time-consuming to go get the certification and the number of drivers that have this is actually decreasing over time as they age out and enough people are coming into the profession so I read one article and this was by one of the one of the professional groups of CDL drivers that there's about 240,000 shortfall of CDL Drivers compared, kind of where the demand is there's about you call it to and 50,000 fewer drivers than they need so we're seeing you know I think I can remember was you or someone but Amazon and Walmart are ineffectively gunfighter these people where they're charged their they're paying crazy signing bonuses and hourly rates and salaries for any kind of truck drivers and so because they're the biggest. Employers of these things they tend to have the better economics and its really starving out other parts of the market as they absorb all the available CDL drivers. Jason: [33:57] Yeah that Walmart's paying a hundred and for a new driver $160,000 a year and eight thousand dollar signing bonus. Scot: [34:04] Yeah yes it's not uncommon uncommon thing to see out there it's pretty crazy, so that's what's going on at the ports it is a hot mess on this side as well so even if you are fortunate enough to get your product here to the US then you know you're looking at probably an extra 40 days I think is kind of you know what everyone's saying right now and that's average it can take a lot longer the LA Port is so jammed up that people are are they're rerouting you know rerouting boats across the sand getting them to other other ports but there are no like there's one in Georgia and it's the Savannah one and it's getting backed up I just saw they authorized building this this kind of effectively opening up a big giant parking area to put containers and that's going to give them some more storage capacity but you know where if you add up those, here we are you know in October and you start adding these things together the the holidays pretty much baked at this point right there's you maybe have 15 to 20 days of window here for stuff you already ordered. 80 days ago to kind of get here but none of this stuff is going to get fixed fast that's going to be part of the problem. Jason: [35:17] Yeah yeah if you follow the earning calls like Nike for example like dramatically lowered their guidance and they said Hey look it's it's cost four times as much to get a container of shoes here and the container takes twice as long to get here, and so we're just not going to have the supply to hit our original guidance and and Nikes better this than a lot of other people so it's a. [35:41] Pretty prominent problem and then there's all these secondary impacts right so you mentioned the math of the container right like you'd like to fill up that 40-foot container with Goods if your goods only take up 90%. Ordinarily you'd put someone else's Goods in the last 10% to try to make it more. Cost effective and efficient and share those costs but when the unloading is so gummed up what you don't want to do is have a secondary process where that container comes off the boat has to get re packed your stuff goes One Way their stuff goes another way, so people are actually shipping containers less full than they normally would which is entirely counterintuitive for what you would expect. The boats are all slowing down because they can use less gas to come here and 80 days then to come here in 40 days because there's no place to unload them. Um and the the supply chain guys I'm like we've been helping a lot of retailers hire truckers lately and they kind of summarize it real simply like the average commercial truck driver was 55 years old with multiple comorbidities a bunch of them. Retired and all the trucking schools that can teach people to get these licenses shut down for covid so there were no new licenses being issued for like. [36:54] Year and so there's just this this huge acute problem. And then you know without those truck drivers with the train problems and Barge problems of your on the Mississippi there's just like no place to move all those goods. You mentioned people are moving the boats from from some ports to secondary ports. That helps somewhat but the biggest cargo ships can't even fit in these ports right so I Long Beach the one of the most advanced Sports we have certainly the most advanced on the West Coast, um [37:27] Can't take the two biggest class of ships it can only take the third biggest class of ships and then as soon as you divert that ship to Portland instead of Long Beach. The the that class of ships won't won't fit there and so like there's there's a limited option to just move the stuff around so we're just we're gummed up like never before and most scary of all Gap and their earnings call kind of said like Hey we're loading our guidance and we're going to very lumpy inventory and we don't see any alleviation of these inventory challenges until at least 2020 3. Scot: [38:06] Yeah in the Auto World we're having a huge problem here where there's a chip shortage and then. [38:14] Another problem is you spend down these factories they don't just get spun back up because all the component parts are you know they stop ordering them and then those factories and everything so so even as chips are starting to come in a lot of vehicles can't be made because there's some other component that now is stuck in one of these containers that that were talking about I read this other interesting article where Coca-Cola has several of their bottling facilities that are down waiting on replacement parts so they went and basically least 20 or 40 bulk ships they didn't even worry about getting containers and they just jumped onto those ships the pieces they need to make their factories work and and are bring him over in this kind of crazy never done before way for a big company. Jason: [38:58] Yeah and I guess that that's one last point on this supply chain thing. It definitely is favoring the biggest players in every industry right so if you're the you know the biggest receivers of goods in the US. You're still being impacted by all of this but you're first in line for what capacity does exist and you you mentioned the games that the Brokers are playing with the price of containers that's going to happen a lot more to the independent shipper than it is the you know number one or number two shipper for that port and so. Well this this is a pain for every retailer in America it's going to be less painful to Walmart and Amazon then it's going to be to the, the medium-sized specialty retailer for. [39:49] And I was just going to point out I think you saw this as well as got but like Salesforce kind of put together a holiday forecast and they looked at all these supply chain problems and they're estimating, that this is going to add about 233 billion dollars in extra supply chain cost to holiday sales for the US so that's. Going to come like straight out of margins basically or or drive more inflation. Scot: [40:13] Yeah that's for the products to get here there's this another side of that equation where which is the opportunity cost right because you know. There's not gonna be a lot of exciting merchandise on the Shelf so we're what's opportunity cost of that we'll have to kind of. We'll get to that I guess we talked about forecast so what what holiday behaviors are feeding into this. Jason: [40:34] Yeah so tricky this one is there wild swings both ways right so you think if you remember at the beginning of covid there. Fundamental changes that happen people spend a lot less on travel they spend a lot less on restaurants they spend a lot more on their homes and they spent a lot more grocery stores right and so then as, people got more comfortable as people start getting vaccinated as infection rates are going down we started seeing all those things swing back right and you started seeing, a lot more bookings that are being be you saw a lot more Airline reservations you saw a lot more traffic coming to stores and you certainly saw a lot more people going back to restaurants. Then Delta hit. And we saw a dip again and people started returning to the the the kind of earlier covid behaviors not as dramatically as the first wave. [41:25] You kind of had a second wave and so predicting which of those, behaviors are going to be at the at the peak for holiday is really hard right now so retailers are looking at consumer sentiment and Doug mcmillon in his investor call he's like hey. Our consumer has told a strongly they want to have a normal holiday that they want to sit down with their family and have a meal, they want to travel they want to do the normal things and there's a strong desire and that if it is remotely safe they will do it and Doug's I kind of under his breath comment was. [42:05] Even if it's not safe they're probably going to do it right so, his viewing is there's there's so much fatigue in all of these like covid change behaviors that were going to see a significant return, you know closer to pre covid behaviors but you know we are we are seeing some signs go the other way, in the u.s. store traffic never fully recovered we are still down about ten percent versus pretty covid levels in China store traffic totally recovered and then Delta hit and store traffic drop back down, 30% below pre-pandemic levels and so since China has historically been about 4 months ahead of us. That that would predict that we're going to see another drop in. Um store traffic which again doesn't mean people won't spend it means they're going to buy more online instead of in store and that exacerbates all of The Last Mile problems that we talked about last year and we're going to talk about it. [43:09] Again this year so it's really risky to predict. What's going to happen with the coded behaviors people were starting to buy a lot of clothes again after having not buying clothes in here and now the closed sales are slowing down and then we talked about. Apparel is one of the categories most impacted by all these supply chain issues so there just may not be close to buy and so really hard to predict that stuff. Um but what I can tell you is retailers now have a couple of reasons to desperately get you to shop earlier right one reason is they're not going to have very much stuff and they don't want to be the Grinch that caused you to miss Christmas so they desperately want you to come in early, and give yourself the best chance to get the stuff you want so, the every retailer is more loudly than ever before trying to incentivise and entice customers to shop early. [44:03] Also if this ends up being another digital Christmas where people shop a lot more online than they do in stores, we have a huge problem with the last mile we don't have enough capacity in FedEx ups and u.s. post office to deliver twice as many packages over holiday, and so we need to spread that those those orders out over more days and so for all of those reasons we're seeing retailers start their sales earlier than ever so. To kind of paint you a promotional picture Amazon Prime day normally is in summer it historically celebrated Amazon's birthday which is in July. So then the pandemic kids they can't have a July sale so they have an October sale and it went really well. So this year they went back to Summer but they went to earlier summer they had the sale in June and a lot of us think they did it earlier in June for one of two reasons either they hate their own C fo and wanted him to have to talk. On earnings calls about the sale being in a different quarter every year for the last three years or. They were having a sale earlier to make room for a second big sale they intend to have this year during holiday to kind of repeat the success of. [45:11] Of holiday Prime Day last year and we haven't seen any all the announcements yet but Amazon has already announced a 30 day. Beauty and personal care sale starting in October of this year Target match that and said hey we're going to start our deal days in October, and we're price-matching for the whole holiday so if if you don't believe us and you think we're just making a joke about these early sales and you think there's going to be better sales waiter know if you buy it early will guarantee you, that will match any lower prices that you see anywhere for the rest of holiday so targets leaning heavily into that. And we think most retailers are going to launch their sales. Earlier than ever before to try to pull in these these early Shoppers because of all the supply chain and inflation issues. The sales aren't going to be as good as they usually are like that what used to be 40 percent off is going to be 25% off but what deals they do have are going to be earlier in the year to try to drive those, those sales earlier. [46:21] And people aren't going to get everything they want they're going to be limited inventory and so what's going to happen people are going to get more gift cards people are going to celebrate the holiday later and we're going to sell more stuff in January January is always a good holiday month anyway but January is going to be disproportionately large this year because of the lumpy supply chain think so, if you think of holiday as generally like being a strong peak in October between that that the kind of turkey five, this holiday more than ever before that spending starting in October and is going to last all the way through January. Scot: [46:58] And then as we get to the last mile we're definitely have another ship again so we've got we haven't increased our capacity hardly any because you can't really buy Vans and the everyone's renting Vans and there's just this fixed number of biliary vehicles and if we're going to have this Less store traffic even more e-commerce than last year even if you throw you know maybe. [47:23] Low middle digit low single digits on there like five or 7% or something well we effectively had 98, we can only deliver like 97% of the packages last year so it's going to make it a now will only be a little deliver maybe 90% of the packages so it's going to be really tough delivery, set up coming into the holiday. Jason: [47:46] I think the like some data points I saw the that are alarming like so number one. All the Fulfillment centers have an average turnover rate of like four hundred percent a year right so they're having a hard time hiring people and keeping people. FedEx in their earnings call said that like we just can't staff some of our distribution hubs so we're having to reroute packages in a less efficient manner, because for example we only have sixty percent of our labor force in our Portland Hub right so ordinarily they would try to, be at a hundred and twenty percent of their labor in these hubs for holiday with all this seasonal labor and this year. [48:24] They can't even fulfill all the permanent jobs they have so there's not going to be a seasonal Flex. For the main carriers you know the Retailer's do a lot of seasonal hiring for stores but they're prioritizing the seasonal hiring for their fulfillment centers over the stores because they're so. Worried about enough labor to fulfill all these packages and then you know when when FedEx and UPS have less capacity. What do they do they smartly charge more for it so we've seen gas surcharges we've seen holiday surcharges and and they're now announcing their rate hikes for January and FedEx announced the largest rate hike they've had in the last ten years so on average, it's almost six percent as 5.9 percent rate hike it varies wildly depending on the class of service so some kinds of shippers are going to get hit much harder. Um and just like last year all of the the big shippers have a quota and they're not going to be allowed to ship more more packages. The maybe one silver lining in this is that. Because readers are likely to be more successful in spreading the demand out this year than last year that's going to help a little bit and. [49:37] As a as challenges everyone's going to be with the capacity last year there were political challenges that that particularly got the US Post Office sideways which is a big part of this whole chain. And they don't anticipate that that will be as bad this year and so there is absolutely going to be ship again in 2.0 this year with the, the The Last Mile but the most of the analysts I'm talking to are saying the first mile is going to be so disrupted this year that the last mile is going to seem. Less severe in comparison whereas last year the the holiday challenges were all about the last mile. Scot: [50:16] Yeah and you know the double-edged sword of there not being enough product is maybe there just won't be enough product and it won't you should be getting but if whatever there is is going to get jammed up I think. Jason: [50:29] Yeah so that's a great transition to so like that's a lot of Doom and Gloom what's going to happen for Holiday should we all be shorting the retail stocks like what's. What's going to happen. And spoiler alert I don't know well we'll talk a little bit about our educated guesses but maybe before we do we can walk through some of the the forecast from the the brave souls that have been willing to share their holiday forecast. Scot: [50:56] Yeah the one the one I saw was from Salesforce and they, they say that e-commerce is going to be up 7% versus kind of that huge surge last year which was like you know fifty percent so they're coming in kind of with a moderate 7% growth which which is done yeah I think that would be the probably the slowest e-commerce growth since 2008-2009 yeah. Jason: [51:24] 2008. Scot: [51:26] Yeah that's that's the one I was tracking and you know when I read through the bullet points it made sense they're definitely putting a pretty wet blanket on things due to the this kind of quote-unquote Supply pain. Jason: [51:38] Yeah and it is tricky so they were the only one I've seen that's done an e-commerce forecast right and I would say that's the most uncertain because. Of we just don't know whether people are going to go back to stores or whether they're going to be worried about health and ordering online when they start having constrained. Um supplies is that gonna. Push them to online more because they can hunt more places or is that going to entice them to go to the store because they can use their eyes to see the inventory for themselves like there's, there's a lot of variability in that e-commerce number but I would remind people even as low as 7 percent sounds its. 7% on top of the huge bases from last year right so it's it's that's not a decline in e-commerce by any means that's a slowing of the increase just as a reminder for. People. But then I did see several like of the other the kind of traditional Consultants put together an overall holiday forecast right so beIN predicted that they were going to they thought holiday was going to be up seven percent from last year. [52:45] Deloitte said that they thought holiday was going to be up between seven and nine percent from last year. And MasterCard said they think holidays going to be up 7.4 percent from last year so. To put all three of those numbers in context those are all huge numbers. Um last year was the best holiday year in 10 years and sales were up 10% but the average is about 6% so saying we're going to grow if. You know these three things kind of all averaged out to about seven percent growth if we're here we go. If all holiday store an e-commerce gross 7% on top of the ten percent from last year, that's a phenomenal holiday and so that says, that these guys are pretty confident that the consumer is going to spend even if they can't find exactly what they want right that the supply chain is going to be painful but that the all the macroeconomic stuff we talked about at the beginning is going to win out and consumers are going to spend a lot of money this holiday I. [53:49] I want to believe this I'm going to be pleasantly surprised if it plays out like that right and my um, the the one caveat I'll say is that us retail is incredibly Diversified right and so for every category that's going to get shellacked by the supply chain or by changes in covid behaviors. Some other category is going to benefit right and so. It is true that the holiday could absolutely hit these numbers like I'll remind people that cars are 25 percent of retail sales gas is another huge chunk of retail sales. Some of these forecasts have those things in some don't some of these forecasts are for November and December some are for November December and January like everybody has a different definition of retail and a different definition of holiday so, you can't really apples-to-apples any of these but I pulled all the US Department of Commerce data and again last year November through January 10 percent growth, average of the last ten 10 years is about 6% growth so 7% growth is a. A terrific number and. I don't know I could see it happening if it happens it's going to be because there was a we had the most Monster January ever because I just don't think there's going to be enough Goods on the Shelf in November and December to do. Scot: [55:17] Yeah I'll take a so I think the winners are going to be the companies that have the most power and smartest supply chain operators so I think Walmart and Amazon. Maybe Target I don't know them as well do they have a you think they feel like they have a pretty dialed in. Jason: [55:33] They Walmart and Target both in their earnings said like look our inventory isn't going to be isn't where we want it it's not going to be where we want it but we we in general are feeling good and neither one lowered its guidance for holiday in their last earnings call so they both felt that they were going to weather the storm but you know below that you go look at like a Bed Bath and Beyond and they're like look there's no way we can hit our numbers with the supply we're gonna get. Scot: [56:00] Will they miss this quarter and if you miss this quarter you're just going to get worse the next quarter Seth. Jason: [56:04] Exactly exactly. Scot: [56:06] It's a poop storm now and it's gonna be a bloodbath and in 90 days yes I think I think if I kind of do the calculus on that I think those three guys win I think everyone else is net negative and. You know I don't think those three are big enough let's say they represent Amazon's kind of half of e-commerce only think about e-commerce the rest of retail is. That's your bailiwick yeah Amazon's half, yeah I could see it being flat to down five percent because. Amazon Walmart and Target doing decent isn't it be enough for to make up for the whole that it's created there so yeah so that's kind of, where I see it it's going to be the big get bigger and stronger and because they you know they have Prime, they have more technologies that this has been on their radar longer they have more containers they have more trucks they have more dollars to spend on solving these problems they're going to be the winners so that's going to be you know it is going to be I think a bad year for the small medium sized business the incumbent brands that are just getting their legs under them and you know having to kind of have a Miss effectively miss a holiday because you couldn't get a bunch of product it's going to be be a rough rough year for everybody. Jason: [57:25] Yeah no I in a way it's going to be the exact opposite of last year when covid first hit nobody obviously had Advance warning or was prepared for this and so a secondary impact was a bunch of eCommerce sites that didn't traditionally get a lot of consumer visits, got a lot of Trials because Amazon constrained FBA in Amazon head supply chain problems right and so suddenly you were looking to get your instant pot from Bed Bath & Beyond suddenly a bunch of people are looking to see what eBay had, that hasn't shopped eBay in five or ten years right so a lot of those kind of second-tier eCommerce sites got extra visits as people were. Trying new address the supply chain shortages this year I think we're going to have exactly the opposite there's going to be a ton of supply chain shortages there's going to be a lot of, news stories every day about supply chain shortages and the big players with the best infrastructure in the most advanced supply chain planning, like the Amazons and Walmarts of the world and and targets, are going to be the winners and it's going to be a lot harder for those specialty retailers and Regional retailers to compete unfortunately. Scot: [58:41] Yeah I think that that is the setup and we will continue so that hopefully that gives everyone an idea of the big talk in the industry and you were just at an industry event is this what everyone was talking about Jason. Jason: [58:55] Yeah yeah slightly less than I would have expected I mean it was a huge topic everyone understands the supply chain thing. I do think it was the first conversation a lot of you know customer experience folks and people that you know we're kind of had their head down in their own in their own Silo you know we're suddenly getting their eyes open to the fact that like. Yeah your customer experience is going to stink at there's no products on the. Scot: [59:20] Mix the CX person's job a lot easier they just you know just take the holiday off. Jason: [59:26] Yeah and so you know it is interesting though again like. [59:31] You know we may we may hit the top line numbers and it may be from a lot less items that sold more expensively. The you know category there's going to be winning and losing categories by far and again because of the consumer health and the supply chain issues, the supply chain for diamonds is looking a lot better than the supply chain for Budget shoes and so you know you just may see what jury where you know you say you sell a few things for a while, do better you know where there's extra scarcity then you know some of these low-margin high-volume consumer goods and so I think. [1:00:08] My key takeaways for everyone is it's going to be a very lumpy like the averages will be interesting we should all follow them but but every. Um retailer and every category is going to experience a very different holiday and there just is more uncertainty than there has been in the last 30 years of retail so like for anyone, to definitively say this is how it is going to play out I think is super risky because there's so many things that could go either way at this point, will consumers you know by another toy when they can't get their first choice will consumers go to a restaurant you know or not will consumers take a vacation or not. You know all of these these will they pay 5% more for something or not like there's just so much uncertainty that you know this is going to be. Holiday that really rewards people that do good scenario planning and are prepared for any eventuality. Scot: [1:01:06] Absolutely and we will keep you posted here on the Jason Scott show but hopefully this gives everyone kind of a framework to work within and we'll be updating various components of the supply pain as we get closer to Holiday. Jason: [1:01:22] And until next week happy commercing!

To support this ministry financially, visit: https://www.oneplace.com/donate/545/29 Though tough times are by their nature unpleasant, they are designed by God to develop trust. We see in the life of Elisha that those who are willing to trust eventually see God's power revealed. Just because our hands are tied doesn't mean our hearts have to be.

Mariners go into the weekend tied with Boston and Shannon Drayer is here to talk about it Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Captain America took the perfected version of Serum but it was others who gained powers and abilities from attempted experiments at recreating the original

The fear of intimacy is real and it is valid. It is also a survival strategy that is the result of feeling unsafe as a child when one is powerless to control their environment, parents, and circumstances. In this episode, Lisa A. Romano, Life Coach, and meditation teacher will show you how to better trust yourself, open up to love, and ultimately heal the fear of intimacy. Online Codependency Recovery Program https://www.lisaaromano.com/12-wbcp YouTube Channel http://bit.ly/32zOvUh Instagram @lisaaromano Contact support.coach@lisaaromano.co Facebook Support Group https://www.facebook.com/groups/adultchildrenofalcoholics/

In episode 378 of Financially Simple, Justin looks at five current trends in Marketing that could make your marketing strategy more effective. In recent years we've seen the business landscape change as new technology and innovation disrupts how we do business. In this episode, Justin goes over five marketing trends that have become instrumental in modern business strategies. Don't forget to subscribe, and let us know how we are doing by leaving a review. Thanks for listening! _________________   TIME INDEX: 00:42 - 5 Trends to Make Your Marketing More Effective 05:09 - Innovation/Evolution 07:56 - Market Research 11:04 - Electronic Data 15:12 - Marketshare Disruption 18:23 - Tied to Profit 21:40 - Practical Application 23:22 - Summary _________________   USEFUL LINKS: Work with Our Team Financially Simple on YouTube Advance Child Tax Credit Payments in 2021 Subscribe to the Financially Simple Newsletter   NEW Book: Your Baby's Ugly - Maximize the Value of Your Business NOW or You Will Have Nothing to Sell Later _________________   BIO: Host Justin Goodbread, Certified Financial Planner, Certified Exit Planning Advisor, Certified Value Growth Advisor. He is a serial entrepreneur, author, speaker, educator, Investopedia Top 100 advisor, and business strategist with over 20 years of experience. Justin owns Heritage Investors LLC, a registered investment adviser with the State of Tennessee. Heritage Investors only transacts business in states where it is properly registered or is excluded or exempted from registration requirements. To learn more about our credentials and awards, please visit https://heritageinvestor.com/awards-certifications/. This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for individuals. To determine what is appropriate for you, please consult a qualified professional. The Financially Simple podcast provides information, guidance, and support to Small Businesses in the United States.

3rd round of UFC #266 fight between Volkanovski and Ortega was epic.   Not sure how Ortega went five rounds.UNC the Milli Vanilli of college football and still in the hunt for the ACC Coastal division title. Anthony Joshua overrated and dominated by Oleksandr Usyk.   He is now the IBF, WBA and WBO Heavyweight champ.  Joshua lost a unanimous decision in front of his home fans and it wasn't even close.  Yanks what a win last night.   Stanton with a grand slam that he hit out of Fenway.   Tied with Sox for Wildcard lead.For the first time in their 140 year history the St. Louis Cards have won 15 games in a row.  

SF Chronicle's Bruce Jenkins looking thru the Windows of Baseball with Marty to talk about the chances the Giants & Dodgers will end up tied after game 162 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SF Chronicle's Bruce Jenkins looking thru the Windows of Baseball with Marty to talk about the chances the Giants & Dodgers will end up tied after game 162 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

ESPN's David Schoenfield joins Talkin' Baseball with Bill to talk about the chances the Giants & Dodgers will finish tied after game 162 See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Lawmakers in Washington face a number of crucial deadlines in the coming days denominated in hundreds of billions and trillions. There’s funding for the Biden infrastructure plan, plus the feds running out of money and the ability to borrow. Nova Safo joins us with more details. Then we head to Germany, where elections for the next chancellor are taking place. The BBC checks in with the local business climate there to see where business owners stand on some of the issues that could affect them.

Lawmakers in Washington face a number of crucial deadlines in the coming days denominated in hundreds of billions and trillions. There’s funding for the Biden infrastructure plan, plus the feds running out of money and the ability to borrow. Nova Safo joins us with more details. Then we head to Germany, where elections for the next chancellor are taking place. The BBC checks in with the local business climate there to see where business owners stand on some of the issues that could affect them.

SUBSCRIBE TO SALES SECRETS PODCASTITUNES ► https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/s...​SPOTIFY ► https://open.spotify.com/show/1BKYsQo...​YOUTUBE ► https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCVUh...​THIS EPISODE IS BROUGHT TO YOU BY SEAMLESS.AI - THE WORLD'S BEST SALES LEADSWEBSITE ► https://www.seamless.ai/LINKEDIN ► https://www.linkedin.com/company/seamlessai/JOIN FOR FREE TODAY ► https://login.seamless.ai/invite/podcastSHOW DESCRIPTIONBrandon Bornancin is a serial salesperson, entrepreneur and founder of Seamless.AI. Twice a week, Brandon interviews the world's top sales experts like Jill Konrath, Aaron Ross, John Barrows, Trish Bertuzzi, Mark Hunter, Anthony Iannarino and many more -- to uncover actionable strategies, playbooks, tips and insights you can use to generate more revenue and close more business. If you want to learn the most powerful sales secrets from the top sales experts in the world, Sales Secrets From The Top 1% is the place to find them.SALES SECRET FROM THE TOP 1%WEBSITE ► https://www.secretsalesbook.com/LINKEDIN ► https://www.linkedin.com/company/sales-secret-book/ABOUT BRANDONBrandon Bornancin is a serial salesperson (over $100M in sales deals), multi-million dollar sales tech entrepreneur, motivational sales speaker, international sales DJ (DJ NoQ5) and sales author who is obsessed with helping you maximize your sales success.Mr. Bornancin is currently the CEO & Founder at Seamless.ai delivering the world's best sales leads. Over 10,000+ companies use Seamless.ai to generate millions in sales at companies like Google, Amazon, Facebook, Slack, Dell, Oracle & many others.Mr. Bornancin is also the author of "Sales Secrets From The Top 1%" where the world's best sales experts share their secrets to sales success and author of “The Ultimate Guide To Overcoming Sales Objections.”FOLLOW BRANDONLINKEDIN ► https://www.linkedin.com/in/brandonbornancin/INSTAGRAM ► https://www.instagram.com/brandonbornancinofficial/FACEBOOK ► https://www.facebook.com/SeamlessAITWITTER ► https://twitter.com/BBornancin

Do you feel like your blessings are tied up? Hindered? If so, join Prophet Veal for this message that will help you to identify the ways that you can prosper from the prophecy you've received! You cannot afford to miss this powerful and anointed two-part teaching! The oil on this series has the potential to speed up the manifestation of the prophetic word you received from the Lord! Make sure that you RATE, SUBSCRIBE, and SHARE! John's book Supernaturally Delivered: A Practical Guide to Deliverance and Spiritual Warfare is available wherever great Christian books are sold. Supernaturally Prophetic with John Veal is part of the Destiny Image Podcast Network.

Do you feel like your blessings are tied up? Hindered? If so, join Prophet Veal for this message that will help you to identify the ways that you can prosper from the prophecy you've received! You cannot afford to miss this powerful and anointed two-part teaching! The oil on this series has the potential to speed up the manifestation of the prophetic word you received from the Lord! Make sure that you RATE, SUBSCRIBE, and SHARE! John's book Supernaturally Delivered: A Practical Guide to Deliverance and Spiritual Warfare is available wherever great Christian books are sold. Supernaturally Prophetic with John Veal is part of the Destiny Image Podcast Network.

In this episode of the Bodega Baseball podcast, we discuss the fascinating 3-way tie in the American League wild card race. As of this recording, the two wild card spots belong to 3 teams all in the AL East! The New York Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Redsox are battling for a chance to go to the playoffs. With the Tampa Bay Rays in first place, it's sad to think that 2 of the 3 teams won't even play in the divisional round. In other news, Max Scherzer is arguably the greatest pitcher of this generation, eyeing his 4th Cy Young award and achieving the 3000 strikeouts milestone.

Braden Holloway is the Head Coach of NC State Swimming & Diving. This summer, he celebrated his 10th anniversary leading the Wolfpack. NC State has become the cream of the crop in the ACC. Eight times Braden has been named ACC Coach of the Year and eight times they've won ACC team titles. The Wolfpack has produced 7 individual NCAA Champions as well as 6 National Champion relay teams. At the 2016 Rio Olympics, Ryan Held won an Olympic gold medal as part of Team USA's 4x100 Freestyle Relay. Coleman Stewart just recently broke the WR in the 100 Back SCM swimming for the Cali Condors. Braden and his wife, Mary Mittendorf, both swam at NC State. They have 4 kids. Enjoy! 00:00 Swimming Sponsors 03:30 Post Trials, Pre College 05:15 Tied to the job? 06:30 Leading NC State 10:15 Think Bigger 11:30 Assistant to Head Coach 16:30 Selecting staff 22:00 Marc Bernardino 24:00 Fundraising 26:40 Recruiting 33:00 Coleman Stewart 38:30 Coach Athlete Trust 41:00 Developing the underwater kick 41:45 Body kicker or Core kicker 43:30 Matt Martelli 48:10 Charlie Higgins 49:20 Kicking with fins 54:00 No breathers 56:05 Bloody eye 57:48 Coaching Men & Women 01:03:50 Todd DeSorbo 01:11:30 Validation 01:15:00 Family Man 01:22:20 Writing Workouts Support Our Sponsors: THE MAGIC 5: Custom fitted goggles that are tailor-made for your exact face. You shouldn't feel you are wearing goggles. Use code BRETTHAWKE20 at checkout to receive 20% off. SWIM ANGELFISH: Receive the tools and skills needed to teach swimmers with autism, physical disabilities, anxiety, sensory and motor conditions with Swim Angelfish, the global leader in adaptive swim. Get certified online today! SUPERIOR SWIM TIMING: Run a swim meet with ease from your laptop. SST is fully compatible with Hy-Tek and Team Unify as well as Colorado, Daktronics, and Omega touchpads. Tell them Brett sent you! DESTRO SWIM TOWERS: Save $150 per double swim tower by using the code "brett" at checkout! SWIMNERD LIVE: Create an interactive heat sheet. Stream your swim meet scoreboard in real time over top your live stream. Turn any tv into a digital scoreboard. Subscribe & Listen: Apple Podcasts Google Spotify YouTube Produced by: SWIMNERD Supported by: Fitter & Faster #ncstate #collegeswimming #swimming

Zach, Alex, and Ben try to remain upbeat after a wholly disappointing open to the Green Bay Packers 2021 season. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Sunday night football on NBC exposed a few Bears issues to a national audience, wouldn't you say? The defense was poor, the offense was dinky and dunky and the result was a 20 point loss in Los Angeles. We look at all that happened against the Rams while turning our attention to the home opener against 1-0 Cincinnati as Dan Doinks will be attending his first Bears game since we became familiar with what the hell Covid-19 meant. Does this qualify as an Andy Dalton revenge game? Will JF1 get more than five plays? Will the secondary give up any more 50+ yard bombs? Has Matt Nagy learned anything in his three+ years as a head coach in the NFL? Plus tons more, including our resident sharp and whale Rick Feelsmen as well as the boys' can't-miss fantasy advice. 0:00 - 04:13 - New intro tune with compliments to Sufjan Stevens, Coach Cuse and Bill Doinks 04:13 - 05:44 - What's on tap tonight? 05:44 - 53:35 - Bears-Rams review, Bears-Bengals preview, NFL chatter. How are we feeling after Sunday night's 20 point loss? Does Matt Nagy know what he's doing? What happened on defense? Offense? Quarterback play overall? Who wins the Zero Doinks Cornish Hen Week 1 MVP as voted on by the Fans N Eggs? Dan Doinks walks us through Week 2's opponent, the Cincinnati Bengals. Will JF1 get more than five plays this upcoming week? How will the oh-fer NFC North fair in Week 2? 53:35 - 84:12 - Hamm's N Spreads. Rick Feelsmen laments his 1-2 week but he's nothing if not resilient and of sound mind as he shoots for 2-1 this week, at worst. The boys discuss what games catch their eye in Week 2. Everton chatter returns here for the soccer fans among us as they are undefeated and unstoppable. I think this is where we chat about some Ted Lasso, too? 84:12 - 84:49 - Where can you find us on the interwebs? 84:49 - 91:25 - Bears Fantasy Corner. Who won between the Doinks with their Week 1 picks? Is John Lithgow actually alive? Who is the Taysom Hill trash player of the week, presented by Glad? Most importantly, which Chicago Bear player can win you your Week 2 fantasy battle? 91:25 - 103:56 - The B1G Minute. Illini still lead the Big Ten West. Gophers bounced back from a Week 1 defeat. Iowa football might be really good this year, eh? Ohio State loses a regular season game for the first time in Ryan Day's coaching career, right? 103:56 - 109:35 - Let's Wrap this M'F Up. What weird thoughts are still bouncing around in Dan and Bill's minds? 109:35 - END - Outro. Special thanks to Mr. Big for the inspiration of "To Be With You," credited to Bill Doinks.

Padres have a disaster in LA but somehow still are tied for 2nd WC, NFL week 1 recap

We have new information about when people first realized something was wrong tied to the apparent murder-suicide in Avon Lake, Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Bruce Vanderhoff shares why the latest COVID-19 numbers are 'troubling' him, and more places put their own COVID vaccine and mask rules in places, including the NFL. Plus, Burger King is banning 120 ingredients from its menu in an effort to promote "real food" with celebrity-curated meals, and 3News sports analyst Ben Axelrod shares a love letter to Cleveland Browns fans on why we all need to savor the 2021 season. New on 3, get the latest information on what's happening and impacting you across Northeast Ohio on Thursday, September 9, 2021, on 3News Now with Stephanie Haney. Need a break from bad news? Watch It's All Good (News!) with Stephanie Haney, every Wednesday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nr4rEdmJmT4 Like this show? Check out the 3 Things to Know with Stephanie Haney podcast: http://wkyc.com/3thingstoknow Connect with Stephanie here: http://twitter.com/_StephanieHaney http://instagram.com/_StephanieHaney http://facebook.com/thestephaniehaney Read more here: Avon Lake community devastated after deaths of four people in murder-suicide https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/local/lorain-county/avon-lake-community-devastated-after-deaths-four-people-murder-suicide/95-75984f67-486b-4066-b655-0ed703e9eab0 Avon Lake police: Man fatally shot wife, children, dog before killing self https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/local/lorain-county/police-identify-two-adults-two-children-found-dead-in-apparent-murder-suicide-avon-lake/95-98508d4b-08f4-410c-a5e1-c9cc60ff23e5 'These numbers are certainly troubling': Ohio health officials address COVID surge as positivity rate tops 13 percent https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-19-cases-surge-ohio-pandemic-update-delta-variant-vaccines/95-fa1df45b-a322-42b0-b65e-9e1706369c03 COVID-19 in Ohio: State reports 7,897 new cases in the last 24 hours https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-numbers/coronavirus-ohio-updates/95-e2faeb56-d02a-443a-bcdb-141f2c7fafe8 Cleveland Clinic: All of your most-pressing mask questions answered https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/mask-face-covering-questions-answered-cdc-cleveland-clinic/95-fdefe600-1c0e-44b3-a692-2fe841a3dd2d How to wear (and how not to wear) a mask https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8imW0j2lPs MOJO in Cleveland Heights requiring guests to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/vaccine/mojo-cleveland-heights-now-requiring-guests-to-show-proof-covid-19-vaccination/95-4753800f-90ed-474a-b81a-4fa81c23f57c LIST | Schools, venues, stores and institutions in Northeast Ohio requiring COVID-19 vaccination or masks https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/return-of-the-mask-list-of-stores-institutions-in-northeast-ohio-that-are-going-back-to-mask-mandates/95-901d177e-0342-4662-8fd7-e2140fb28c5b Yes, some NFL teams have COVID-19 vaccination policies for fans https://www.wkyc.com/article/news/verify/sports-verify/nfl-fans-vaccine-2021-season/536-6fc6eccd-4e0d-4361-909e-bfb2c0f5b9f1 Ben Axelrod column: Cleveland Browns fans should savor the 2021 season https://www.wkyc.com/article/sports/nfl/browns/ben-axelrod-cleveland-browns-fans-should-savor-2021-season/95-6ea5d33c-9f62-4bbe-8c00-2e3b5accd680 Burger King introduces celebrity meals with new 'real food' menu https://www.wkyc.com/article/life/food/burger-king-bans-artificial-ingredients-keep-it-real-meals/67-c5733a8e-c507-476e-a876-3dcd48e8fe84

1651Amid the soul searching after their defeat at Worcester, the royalists re-assess the philosophical underpinnings of their cause.

If Ron Hextall really wants to add size, like he says, the lack of cap space isn't holding him back. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  This episode is my response to a review that was left on SelfWork this week. They write, “Thank you for taking the time to make this podcast. I've tried therapy at least five times in the last ten years for anxiety, depression and grief. I could never stick with therapy. But since discovering your podcast and binging on the episodes that resonate, I feel much more confident about taking on therapy and more modern treatments, and much more informed. “ So, on this episode of SelfWork sponsored by Athletic Greens,  we'll focus on why you might tend to quit therapy – or at least the reasons you give.  And my recommendation is to think through the "why" of your desire to leave the relationship. This issue may be more complicated than first thought. Tied in with that, what are the roles therapists can play? Or what are the different structures for therapy? If you know these roles, you'll walk into the relationship realizing all it could be – and make sure you and your therapist are headed in the direction that you understand and believe could be helpful. The listener email is short and sweet.. and has to do with getting over “hard feelings.” I appreciated this question in its simplicity. Hard feelings are something that can stick around for a. long time and cause the feeler of them much more harm that whoever they're toward. Or whatever they're about. So, I can't wait to dig into that one. Important Links: Click Here for the fabulous offer from Athletic Greens with bonus product with your subscription! And join me for a real chat - you and me talking! Click here and request permission to access Fireside! A wonderful article by Ms. Griffith and Good Therapy on five reasons for quitting therapy. I used this article as part of the scaffolding for my own comments and it's a great article. You can hear more about depression and many other topics by listening to Dr. Margaret's podcast, SelfWork with Dr. Margaret Rutherford. Subscribe to this website and receive her weekly blog posts and podcasts! If you'd like to join my FaceBook closed group, then click here and answer the membership questions! Welcome! My book entitled Perfectly Hidden Depression is available! And you can orderhere! Its message is specifically for those with a struggle with strong perfectionism which acts to mask underlying emotional pain. But the many self-help techniques described can be used by everyone who chooses to begin to address emotions long hidden away that are clouding and sabotaging your current life. And there's another way to send me a message! You can record by clicking below and ask your question or make a comment. You'll have 90 seconds to do so and that time goes quickly. By recording, you're giving SelfWork (and me) permission to use your voice on the podcast. I'll look forward to hearing from you!      

[transcript below] Reissue episode of the week! Jack.  In the Box. This was an early comedy romance episode I wrote specifically with A-R-T - American Radio Theater - in mind.  This was recorded with A-R-T in Marge's dining room.  I would like to point out that the title is not "jack-in-the-box" but Jack[period] in the box [period].  It's a subtle distinction, but it does make it mean something a bit different. I also want to point out right away that the whole Chinese suspicion subplot was meant to be silly and a clue to how disconnected from reality Mrs. McGruder is, not serious.  Keep in mind this was written ten years ago and set in the 1940s.  I have nothing but disgust for any frickinh racists who are currently, in real life, harassing people of Asian descent, particularly the elderly.  The transcript is on the page here, and you will note that the first couple of "radio shows" heard in the background in this episode are in the main script, but after that, they got too complicated to write in between lines and I moved them to the end so they could be recorded "of a piece".  The shows are clear parodies of The Shadow, I love a Mystery, and Flash Gordon.  This also marks the first appearance of Tunis the Unstoppable, whom I later used in Bingo the Birthday Clown. I realized recently that I haven't yet included the full text of the opening sequence of 19 Nocturne Boulevard in any of my transcripts.  My apologies, and it will follow.  It originally started out much longer, but I whittled it down until it was just the right length. Platinum Death Ray Forever! ******************************************************** 19 Nocturne Boulevard Opening VOICE:    19 Nocturne Boulevard CABBIE:    Nocturne Boulevard?  Not far.  When you hit Howard, hang a right.  Howard meets Philip at a weird kind of angle, then you cross James and Poe.  You can't miss Nocturne, it's just past the Automat. VOICE:    19 Nocturne Boulevard, your address for suspenseful stories of the speculative, strange, and supernatural.  [VOICE, or OLIVIA]    Tonight's story is [title] [also might include warning about violence or language here] OLIVIA:    Yes.  This is 19 Nocturne Boulevard, won't you step inside?  What do you mean, what kind of a place is it?  Why it's a [episode specific location] ***************************************************** JACK. IN THE BOX.   Cast: Trudy Garfunkel (F/30ish), divorcee, single mom Timmy Garfunkel (M/10), her son MacGruder (F/50ish), landlady Colonel Chutney (M/70), retired WWI colonel Susan (F/20ish), Trudy's co-worker Jack (M), a robot Mockam (any), an alien Pockam (any), another alien   ON THE RADIO: Announcer Horse voice Ralph The Spook Thug 1 Thug 2 Jake Mack Frenchy Snap Harper Amanda Cool Tunis the unstoppable OLIVIA      Did you have any trouble finding it?  What do you mean, what kind of a place is it?  Why, it's a run-down bungalow apartment court, can't you tell?  SCENE 1. MUSIC     CREEPY SCI FI AMBIANCE      VERY ALIEN POCKAM     The interview will be conducted in the unit's assimilated language. MOCKAM     Report, unit X-14. JACK     [very robotic in all scenes with aliens]  Report.  Earth viability as target for invasion-- MUSIC     BREAK   OLIVIA     Oops.  My mistake.  Here's that bungalow court...   SCENE 2. MUSIC     A BIT OF MELODRAMA - VERY 40s AMBIANCE     OUTSIDE.  TRAFFIC NEARBY SOUND     FOOTSTEPS ON GRAVEL.  DOOR OPENS SLIGHTLY OFF. MACGRUDER     [slightly off] Trudy?  Trudy! SOUND     FOOTSTEPS STOP TRUDY     [sigh]  Mrs. MacGruder.  SOUND     FOOTSTEPS SWIVEL IN GRAVEL TRUDY     I'll have the rent on-- MACGRUDER     [slightly off] Oh, no this is ...  When? TRUDY     Friday.  Um, what, then? MACGRUDER     [coming on]  You got a package! TRUDY     What?  I didn't-- MACGRUDER     I was thinking just that.  What's Trudy Garfunkel doing ordering stuff--? TRUDY     I didn't! MACGRUDER     On her little government salary, and I knew she-- I mean, you-- wouldn't, so then I wondered if maybe it wasn't that deadbeat man of yours-- TRUDY     He's not mine- he hasn't been for a long time-- MACGRUDER     --Might have sent something for the boy, so I figured no harm in letting the movers into your place - I hope you don't mind - but I wanted to let you know before you walk in and trip over it or anything.  TRUDY     Thank you for the warning.  SOUND     FOOTSTEPS - BOTH OF THEM TRUDY     You don't have to-- MACGRUDER     I better go come along and make sure, since if I let it into your place and it turned out to be something dangerous, well I'd never forgive myself.  On the other hand, I was just thinking it might just be a vacuum cleaner, so I was just thinking if it was a vacuum cleaner, then I would knock a whole dollar off your rent - each week - if you just let me use it.  [gasps] TRUDY     The box is that big?  I mean big enough for a vacuum? SOUND     FOOTSTEPS STOP MACGRUDER     Lands sakes!  You just have to get a gander at it!  [beat] Well?  Open it. SOUND     A COUPLE OF ALMOST HESITANT STEPS ON STONE, THEN KEY IN LOCK TRUDY     Did the movers say anything when they--? MACGRUDER     Say anything?  Well, I expect they did, but they didn't really seem to speak much English.  Didn't worry me much though - they were big Italian looking fellers, not Chinese at all. SOUND     KNOB TURNS TRUDY     Chinese?  Why Chinese? MACGRUDER     Oh, I heard it on the radio just the other day, about the Chinese.  Not sure what they said, but I'll tell you, you better check your laundry reaaal good. TRUDY     [dubious]  All right. SOUND     DOOR OPENS.  A COUPLE FOOTSTEPS, THEN PULLED UP SHORT TRUDY     [gasps] MACGRUDER     Didn't I tell you? TRUDY     You said a box - I didn't expect a crate!  How'd they get it through the door? MACGRUDER     Crate.  Box.  I said it was big enough for a vacuum.  TRUDY     [joking] Or some Chinese. MACGRUDER     You think so, too?  Well, you better open it now - maybe this is how they plan to invade or do whatever it was the radio was saying about them.  I'll stay with you while you do it, so that I can run back and call the army if they come popping out of there. TRUDY     I really doubt it's a box of Chinese people. MACGRUDER     You better check! SOUND     SCRABBLING AT WOOD.  TAPPING - SOUNDS PRETTY SOLID. TRUDY     I don't know how to open it. MACGRUDER     Here, I'll go and get a hammer.  We'd better get this done quickly! TRUDY     Yes, I'd rather have this sorted out before Timmy gets home. MACGRUDER     [going off] Oh, well, that too - I was thinking that "Love of a Generation" will be coming on the radio real soon. TRUDY     The radio.  Tsch.  [almost chuckling]  Chinese.   SCENE 3. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     Status of Earth readiness to hold off an invasion fleet? JACK     The earth is fully prepared to repel all invaders. POCKAM     What?  We have seen no evidence--! MOCKAM     Explain.   SCENE 4. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND     SQUEAK OF NAILS AS CRATE LID IS PRIED OFF MACGRUDER     What is it? TRUDY     Let me get the lid off before you go jumping in - you don't want the nails to get you.  MACGRUDER     [sniffs]  Well, it doesn't smell Chinese. TRUDY     [takes breath as if to say something, then sighs]  No. SOUND     HEAVY LID FALLS TO FLOOR MACGRUDER     Well, someone sent you a box of excelsior - sure it wasn't your ex husband?  He seems the type to be making a big deal out of nothing. SOUND     ROOTING AROUND IN PAPER SHREDS TRUDY     Every belonging he ever had wouldn't fill this darn thing.  No, the only time he remembers to send us anything is the occasional model airplane for Timmy's birthday - and they're always late. MACGRUDER     You're better off without him.  Just like Ermintrude on Romances of the Great White Way.  She dumped a crumb who would-- TRUDY     I found something! SOUND     METAL CLANG AS SOMETHING IS PULLED OUT OF PAPER SHREDS MACGRUDER     Well...  It could still be a vacuum cleaner. TRUDY     Here - set this down somewhere. MACGRUDER     Hmph.  Well, I can't be standing around here all day, and if there's nothing more in there but scrap metal-- TRUDY     Aha!  Papers! MACGRUDER     Instructions? SOUND      RIFFLE OF MANY PAGES TRUDY     Um... Maybe.  I don't think it's in English. MACGRUDER     Lessee.  I knew it!  Chinese! SOUND      TAPS PAPER   SCENE 5. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     Which country or continent has the largest potential resistance force? POCKAM     Who do we capture first, in other words? JACK     [strange stuttering noise] Uh, uh, The main army is not that of any surface nation, but a hidden underground force-- POCKAM     Explain!  Underground? JACK     The minions of Tunis the Unstoppable are counted in the millions.   SCENE 6. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND     [off] DOOR SLAMS OPEN, FEET RUNNING IN TIMMY     Hey mom!  I'm starvin--  TRUDY     [absently]  Close the door. SOUND     PAGES TURN TIMMY     Whoa!  What in Hi-ho Silver is that? TRUDY     Huh?  [coming out of it]  Oh!  Young man, I should make you march right back outside and come back in like a civilized human being, and not like a--  a-- TIMMY     Bucking bronco? TRUDY     No, that was last week.  Um, a-- TIMMY     Crazy apeman? TRUDY     Fine.  Like a crazy apeman.  But I happen to be busy. TIMMY     If-- TRUDY     Ask like a-- TOGETHER     --civilized human being. TRUDY     [swallows a chuckle] TIMMY     What is it, then, mom?  It looks -- well--? TRUDY     Honestly, I'm not sure.  Grab yourself an apple in the kitchen, and come and help me find a part that looks like this--   SCENE 7. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP POCKAM     [worried] Of what nation is this Tunis the unstoppable?  Has he no enemies on Earth? JACK     [sounding slightly human] He is the secret master of the world.  His armies are legion.   SCENE 8. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND     SQUEAKY.  METAL PIECES BEING PUT TOGETHER.  FINALLY SNAPS IN TRUDY     There!  [pause, sigh, gasp] Goodness!  Look at the time!  It's nearly dinner! TIMMY     Ah, bananas!  I missed the start of Ralph Richardson, Thug Breaker! SOUND     SCRAMBLE ACROSS THE FLOOR.  RADIO TUNING IN TRUDY     Don't wanna keep me company in here while I get set to feed you? SOUND     RADIO CRACKLE, WARMING UP TIMMY     Oh, c'mon mom!  Ralph just found the smuggler's lakeside warehouse, and then they caught him and tied him to a piling and the tide's coming in! SOUND     RADIO MUSIC ANNOUNCER     [very tinny] ...that's why Alfalfa-bet is your best bet for breakfast.  Ask any horse what he likes and he'll say-- HORSE VOICE     Alfalfa-Bet! ANNOUNCER     And now, hear the creaking of the piling? SOUND     PILINGS CREAK ANNOUNCER     Hear the lapping of the incoming tide? SOUND     TIDE LAPS ANNOUNCER     But can we still hear Ralph? RALPH     [A couple of manly grunts] TIMMY     C'mon Ralph!  You can get loose!   SCENE 9. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     [suspicious]  We have seen no evidence of this Tunis the unstoppable. JACK     He is said to be an ancient sorcerer, who is capable of hiding his every movement. POCKAM     That's ludicrous!  Explain this title of Sorcerer! JACK     One who manipulates the ether and the world around him through mental abilities, rather than the use of devices or scientific artifices. MOCKAM AND POCKAM     [gasp]   SCENE 10. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND     RADIO BACKGROUND The SPOOK     Of course you could not see me, for I have the cloak of ancient darkness to protect myself! THUG 1     Oh no! THUG 2     You said it.  He's got us.  There ain't no way out. SOUND     MUSIC SWELLS SOUND     CLICK.  RADIO OFF TIMMY     Well, that's a fine how d'you do! TRUDY     It's time for bed, and we've nearly finished putting this... thing... together. TIMMY     I still say it's a robot!  Look, arms, legs - everything. TRUDY     A robot would look as silly as anyone else without a head.  Up, up! TIMMY     [moving slowly off] You'll look through the shavings again, won't you?  See if there's anything else in the box? TRUDY     Aye, Aye, captain.  Now scoot!   SCENE 11. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     Is this planet Earth very populated with these... sorcerers? JACK     From my research, they are few but very powerful. POCKAM     Bah!  Even such as these cannot withstand our platinum death ray!   SCENE 12. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND     [off] DOOR SLAMS OPEN, FEET RUNNING DOWN STAIRS TIMMY     [off]  Mom?  SOUND     FEET STOP FOR A SECOND, THEN COME ON RAPIDLY TIMMY     [panicky, coming on quickly] Mom!  Where'd it go? SOUND     FEET SLIDE ONTO KITCHEN TILES, THEN SKID TO A STOP TIMMY     I- I'm --  Whoops! TRUDY     [very amused] Timmy, you should join us for breakfast.  I would like you to meet...  [considers] Jack.  Jack [searching for a name] Box- Bocscome - Boscome.  Jack Boscome. TIMMY     Sorry to break in like this, sir.  Mom.  Um, pleased... to meet you? TRUDY     [almost laughing]  Well, shake his hand! TIMMY     [whispered] He's not moving - is he OK? TRUDY     [finally breaks down and laughs]  Jack here?  Why he's just peachy.  SOUND     SLAP ON THE BACK.  SFX     WEIRD MECHANICAL NOISES BEGIN.  VERY LOW TIMMY     What'd you do? TRUDY     I just - I must have pushed his switch or something. TIMMY     Oh!  He's--  Oh!  He sure looks ... real with a head and all. SFX     WHIRRING, ETC., GETS LOUDER, THEN OUT JACK     [very mechanical sounding]  I am unit X-14.  I am at your service. TRUDY     Well, he looks real, but he don't sound it. SOUND     [off] KNOCKING AT FRONT DOOR TRUDY     [sigh] That will be Mrs. MacGruder, about the vacuum cleaner.  Or the Chinese. TIMMY      What vacuum cleaner? Huh? JACK     Explain.  What is Chinese.  SOUND     RAPID FOOTSTEPS TIMMY     [fading out under] Oh, Chinese are folks who come from across the ocean and don't talk like us, and they cook good food... TRUDY     [calling back] Timmy, make sure and keep Jack in the kitchen.  I don't know WHAT Mrs. MacGruder would make of him. SOUND     DOOR.  UNLOCKING CHAIN AND BOLT.  DOOR OPENS MACGRUDER     So?  Did you -uh - manage to ... uh? TRUDY     It's just... Well, apparently it's Ken's idea of a joke. MACGRUDER     I thought you said he wouldn't-- TRUDY     It was all filled with random pieces of metal, and when I got to the bottom, there was a note from him.  Tsch.  He said it was supposed to be some sort of .... um, furnace... but it didn't even have all the pieces. MACGRUDER     [suspicious]  Why would he send such a darn fool thing?  Your furnace here is fine, isn't it?  I can always get Bob in to-- TRUDY     No, no!  Um, it was just that... the last time he bothered to stop by, we--we were living in a place with a dicey furnace. MACGRUDER     [after a long moment]  Man like that, you're better rid of him. TRUDY     I'll see about selling the bits for scrap or something.  MACGRUDER     Take your time - you can always burn the crate and the shavings.  [joking, going off]  Save on your furnace worries... TRUDY     [agreeing noise] SOUND     DOOR SHUTS QUICKLY BUT NOT QUITE SLAMMED TRUDY     Whew.  SOUND     HEAVY FOOTSTEPS APPROACH JACK     Explain.  What is a "Ken".   SCENE 13. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     [sotto] We may need to reconsider the invasion plans. POCKAM     [sotto] I do not agree- MOCKAM     If these sorcerers can withstand our invasion-- POCKAM     I think the information unit is faulty. MOCKAM      That is impossible - the unit must tell the truth.  That is its function. POCKAM     It may not know the truth.  I say we wait until the other units have been retrieved.   SCENE 14. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND      CLICK - MUSIC CUTS OUT SFX     TUNING IN RADIO JACK     Explain.  What is--? TIMMY     Shh.  Now this is a really good show.  Jake, Mack, and Frenchy are the B-9 detective agency.  And they're about to go head to head with the crime syndicate. SFX     MUSIC IN BACKGROUND - PARODY OF I LOVE A MYSTERY OPENER - SEE SCRIPT AT END SOUND      KNOCK ON DOOR TIMMY     Mom!  The door! JACK     Mom! SOUND     FOOTSTEPS ON LINO, THEN WOOD.  TRUDY BRUSHES HER HANDS TOGETHER TRUDY     You two.  You should be doing your homework.  I let you put it off all weekend-- TIMMY     But the show!  Besides, Jack here'll help me with it, won't you Jack old boy? JACK     Explain.  What is homework. SOUND     KNOCK ON DOOR AGAIN TRUDY     Yeah.  A big help. SOUND     KNOB, DOOR OPENS A BIT TRUDY     Yes?  Oh!  Susan! SUSAN     Aha!  [chiding] You remember my name!  TRUDY     [realizing] Oh, no...  Last night...! SUSAN     Are you going to just keep me out here on the doorstep while I read you the riot act for standing me up?  You left me high and dry on a Saturday night, with two sailors and only one pair of feet! TRUDY     I-- [thinks] Let me take you to the corner coffee shop - to make it up. SUSAN     What?  Why? TRUDY     Um, Timmy isn't feeling well, so I really don't want to wake him. TIMMY     [off, sickly sounding]  Mommy? SUSAN     [mollified]  So that's it.  [sigh] You better stay.  TIMMY     [off, coughing]  SUSAN     Kids.  I love em, but I'm not sure I could keep em.  You gonna be in to work tomorrow? TRUDY     He's much better than he was.  Just needs rest. SUSAN     OK.  But next time - you could at least call!  See ya manyana! TRUDY     Bye!  [pause, whew] SOUND     DOOR SHUTS, QUICK FOOTSTEPS SFX     RADIO COMES ON - SCENE PLAYS IN THE B/G TRUDY     Thank you honey!  [hug noise] TIMMY     [boy hug reaction]  Moooom!  The shooow. JACK     Explain.  What is sick. TIMMY     Ssh! TRUDY     C'mon Jack, and I'll explain. SOUND     FOOTSTEPS SFX     RADIO RECEDES AGAIN SOUND     FEET ON LINO TRUDY     Have a seat? JACK     As you instruct. SOUND     SQUEAK OF CHAIR TRUDY     [chuckles] You look so darned human, I keep forgetting you're a machine. JACK     I am X-14, designated Jack Boscome. TRUDY     Glad you like the name. JACK     Explain.  What is Like. TRUDY     First sick.  Hmm.  Well, that's a toughee.  Humans, like machines, have lots of parts that all work together - and when one of the parts doesn't work right - like instead of breathing, you start coughing - that's what it means to be sick. JACK     Repair seems the obvious answer.  Explain.  TRUDY     Well, see you might be repairable - like if you broke a spring or something, you could just go in, take out the spring and put in a new one, but it doesn't work that way for living things - If one of our parts starts to break, it has to fix itself. JACK     Processing.  Corollary - Timmy is sick.  Which part is broken? TRUDY     [ashamed] Well, he's not really sick.  That was a lie.  My friend Susan keeps trying to fix me up with guys, and I -- well, I really just forgot, we were so caught up with having you working and all. JACK     Explain.  What is lie. TRUDY     [rueful] Oh, boy...   SCENE 15. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     Three more units! POCKAM     Three?  Nonfunctional? MOCKAM     Worse - three more we could not retrieve effectively, so destruct function was activated. POCKAM     Only five still functional!  When is retrieval? MOCKAM      It is being done.    SCENE 16. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SOUND      POUNDING ON DOOR, FOOTSTEPS, DOOR OPENED QUICKLY TRUDY     [breathless] Yes?  Mrs. Mac-- MACGRUDER     [furious] Don't you Mrs. MacGruder me with that innocent look on your face, young lady! TRUDY     But--! I--! MACGRUDER     I know you have a man in here.  I've seen him through the window.  What kind of a place do you think I'm running here? And you with a child in the house! TRUDY     Oh, but he's-- JACK     [slightly off, sounding less robotic]  Trudy?  Is there a problem? TRUDY     [thinking fast] Mrs. MacGruder, this is Jack Boscome.  He's a-- a [moving closer, whispering]  He's a vet.  Battle fatigued.  Our office sent a memo around, asking for people willing to open their homes to these boys.  How could I say no? MACGRUDER     [much softened] But it's-- TRUDY     He stays in the living room.  On the couch.  He's really good with Timmy. TIMMY     [off]  Jack?  Hey, ask me that question again.  On my homework. TRUDY     See? JACK     [off] What is the capitol of Idaho? MACGRUDER     [resigned] You should have told me. TRUDY     I wanted to wait and see if it was going to work out first.  I didn't want anyone to make a fuss right away - he's still pretty nervous, you know? MACGRUDER     That's why he never leaves the house, eh? TRUDY     Yup.  MACGRUDER     All right.  All right.  No monkey shines, now! TRUDY     Cross my heart. SOUND     DOOR SHUTS TRUDY     Whew. JACK     [coming on, sounding just like a robot] Explain?  What is battle fatigue?  [then softening]  I should probably know.   SCENE 17. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     They are all disabled.  All but the X-14 unit. POCKAM     All?  But we landed thirty-- MOCKAM     Apparently we both overestimated and underestimated the humans.  Twelve were rendered nonfunctional in assembly, six were completed and placed in government hands and had to be destructed, and eight were never even opened.  POCKAM     Records show these beings are much more curious and greedy than that.  Wait.  What of the other three? MOCKAM      [almost reluctant] They tried to resist retrieval and were destroyed.   SCENE 18. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA SFX     SCENE 2 PLAYS ON RADIO IN B/G [following line about Death-O-tron] TIMMY     Man, I wish we had a Death-o-tron landship.  I wouldn't have to walk to school any more. JACK     But you are not afraid?  What if Tunis comes here.  His landship will crush this house. TIMMY     [exasperated sigh] Jack.  Tunis is just a story.  Did you really think all this stuff on the radio was true? JACK     Why would it not be true?  Explain. TIMMY      It's ... fun.  Like make believe.  Everyone makes stuff up - you mean you don't have stories where you come from? JACK     I don't know where I come from.  My memories begin when you assembled me.  TIMMY     Oh, hold on [listen to the final part of the scene, then as the announcer comes on].  That's kind of sad.  You're sort of just a kid, too.  [pause] But you learn real fast.   SCENE 19. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     We must assume this data is correct. POCKAM     I would prefer a second opinion. MOCKAM     Of course, but we cannot take chances.  There is another planet in the Gargon Nebula whose dominant life form hasn't yet left the ground.  They should be easy to conquer and enslave. POCKAM     The Gargon Nebula is light years from here!  We should-- MOCKAM      We are under orders.  No unnecessary chances.   SCENE 20. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA AMBIANCE     PARTY - SMALL CROWD.  RADIO MUSIC PLAYS IN THE B/G TRUDY     [whispered]  Just stick to the plan.  They all want to meet you.  You remember? JACK     I am unable to forget.  The plan is if the answer to a question is awkward, I ask them what they like on the radio and let them talk. TRUDY     Right.  Everybody here practically lives for one show or another.  You thought Timmy was stuck on his shows- wait until Mrs. MacGruder starts regaling you with the plot from "my fifth husband."  Just don't go thinking anything they say is real. JACK     Timmy explained-- SOUND     DOOR OPENS MACGRUDER     [coming on]  Trudy!  You look lovely.  And this must be-- JACK     Jack Boscome.  MACGRUDER     I hear you were in the army? JACK     I-- [uncomfortable beat, error noise] uh, uh, would rather talk about you.  Do you listen to the radio? MACGRUDER     [fading out] Oh, just occasionally... BRIEF MUSIC - TIME PASSES - SAME SCENE SUSAN     Oh-ho! TRUDY     What? SUSAN     Nothing.  Just Oh-ho.  Can't a girl Oh-ho a friend without someone thinking maybe she just put all the pieces together and realized why said friend is no longer interested in coming out on Saturday nights? TRUDY     Jack?  Oh, he's just-- SUSAN     Living in your house.  Where do I sign up? TRUDY     Oh, that reminds me - I told Mrs. MacGruder he was a vet, and the office set it up.  Don't let on, OK? SUSAN     Oh-ho! BRIEF MUSIC - TIME PASSES - SAME SCENE CHUTNEY     [coming on] You, boy! JACK     Me?  I am Jack-- CHUTNEY     We met earlier, remember? JACK     [almost mechanical sounding]  You are Colonel Chutney.  12th mobile.  Great War.  Medal of-- CHUTNEY     It isn't a test, my boy.  Don't try so hard.  [pause] I wanted you to know that there is someone here who understands your condition and what you've been through.  JACK     Explain? CHUTNEY     I've seen a number of cases - of course, we called it shell shock - but it's all the same thing.  If you ever need to talk to anyone, and don't want to disturb the ladies.  I'm just across the court. JACK     [more and more lost and confused] Talk? CHUTNEY     About your experiences in the war.  Battle fatigue is nothing to sneeze at-- JACK     Oh!  Yes.  Yes, sir. CHUTNEY     [chuckles, then insinuating]  What sort of action did you see? JACK     Sir?  Do you listen to the radio, sir? CHUTNEY     Oh, you can't trust the radio for intelligence.  Everything on it is either so covert no one would recognize it or outright fiction.  Were you with infantry? JACK     [almost panicking, getting more robotic] Sir?  I cannot answer that. CHUTNEY     You can't shock me, son.  JACK     [error noise, very bad] uh, uh, uh, I was slugged, and tortured.  Tied up while the water came in.  Flooded with gas.  [drawing from a radio episode from earlier] CHUTNEY     [shocked] P-O-W?  I am so sorry, my boy.  No wonder.  I won't ask you any more.  Just know that I'm always ready to listen.   SCENE 21. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP MOCKAM     What shall we do with this unit? POCKAM     X-14?  The only logical choice is to vaporize it.  Its memory cells are congested with data from this planet.  It is easier to assemble a new unit than to refresh this one.   SCENE 22. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA AMBIANCE     OUTSIDE, NIGHT SFX     SOMEWHERE A RADIO PLAYS ROMANTIC MUSIC SOUND     FOOTSTEPS ON GRAVEL TRUDY     You were marvelous.  I was so worried when Colonel Chutney buttonholed you like that. JACK     [almost teasing]  Explain.  What is buttonholed? TRUDY     [chuckles fondly]  Only three weeks, and you sound like any other guy.  And you look so real.  I-- It's nice having a man around the house, you know.  Timmy loves you, and the way you fixed the furnace! JACK     Machines make sense.  Humans are confusing.  TRUDY     Don't I know it!  I- I confuse myself sometimes. JACK     Explain? TRUDY     I can't.  Some things are just inexplicable.  Like ... love. JACK     Explain? TRUDY     I- well... Love is a lot like "like".  Just stronger. JACK     A feeling of attachment and a desire to be near the object of the feeling? TRUDY     More or less.  JACK     As an example, you love Timmy? TRUDY     Yes! JACK     And Timmy loves-- Jake, Mack and Frenchy. TRUDY     [chuckling]  Yes. JACK     Do you think love can be learned? TRUDY     I-- Well, I really don't know. JACK     If this is a topic you do not wish to discuss, we can talk about radio shows. TRUDY     [laughing] No.  It's just a topic that no one finds easy to discuss. JACK      I would like to learn more. MOCKAM     [on filter]  Unit X-14!  Unit X-14!  Prepare for imminent retrieval. JACK     Did you hear that? TRUDY     What? JACK     [sigh, starting to sound more and more robotic] I am a robot. TRUDY     I know, but somehow it doesn't matter. JACK     I may come to understand feelings such as love, but I cannot feel them. TRUDY     You once said you could never lie, and look how that turned out. JACK     I have completed my time with you.  [error noise]  uh, uh, uh, uh, I have no feelings for this world or its inhabitants.  Uh, uh, I will fulfill my mission. TRUDY     Jack, what's wrong? SOUND     FOOTSTEPS ON GRAVEL, AWAY TRUDY     Jack!   SCENE 23. MUSIC     SPACE AMBIANCE      SPACE SHIP JACK     [very robotic]  I am capable of further use. POCKAM     What?  Did you speak out of turn, X-14? JACK     Destroying me-- this unit would be a waste of resources.  Logic dictates utilizing all capabilities. POCKAM     What did they teach this thing down there?  no wonder three units had the self-motivation to destruct themselves. MOCKAM     The unit cites logic.  Let it continue. JACK     This unit has assimilated enough to remain out of the hands of government entities, and to blend into society on the planet below.  MOCKAM     True. JACK     Continued data gathering is always of use. MOCKAM     One unit is not enough to gather all the data we would need for a full scale attack - not in our projected time frame. JACK     If you go to the Gargon Nebula, this unit can continue to gather information for your return. MOCKAM     It might work, at that.  POCKAM     But it will be forty of this planet's years before we would return from the Gargon Nebula!   SCENE 24. MUSIC     40s MELODRAMA TRUDY     [sigh] No, Colonel.  He had a -- a bad relapse and had to -- go back to the hospital. CHUTNEY     [on phone] Too bad.  Good boy, that.  When he comes back... well, a divorcee like yourself could do a lot worse. TRUDY     [trying not to cry]  I-- I know.  I have to go, Colonel, there's someone at the door. SOUND     AS IF ON CUE, KNOCK ON DOOR SOUND     PHONE HANGS UP SOUND      RUNNING FEET, DOOR FLUNG OPEN TIMMY       [off, yelling, happy and excited] Hey mom!  It's a big wooden box! TRUDY     [excited gasp] Huh? END **************************************************** RADIO SCENE 1 ANNOUNCER     --in the underground caves beneath the tiny mining town. MUSIC STING JAKE     Look, Mack!  It's Frenchy! FRENCHY     Ooooh. MAC     Well, dip me in honey and roll me in a haystack!  He's been slugged! FRENCHY     [bad french accent] Jake?  They took the scrimshaw!  I couldn't stop them! JAKE     I know, Frenchy.  Mack, Check that door - see if it's clear.  We'll have to leave Frenchy someplace safe while we go after the Syndicate boys.  If they find him, he'll be tortured, or worse. SOUND     SHAKING LOCKED DOOR MACK     Well boil me fer a rutabaga sandwich, the door won't open! JAKE     What's that noise? MACK      Sounds like someone went and left a faucet running. FRENCHY     Jake!  The floor!  It is water! JAKE     So that's the plan, is it - they'll drown us here like rats! MUSIC STING **************************************************** RADIO SCENE 2 SNAP HARPER     As long as we have breath, he won't rule the world.  Are you with me Amanda? AMANDA COOL     Anything you say, Snap! SNAP HARPER     If we can just get to the central coolant chamber of his death-o-tron landship, Amanda, I think we might be able to-- TUNIS     [on filter] To -- what?  Go on Snap Harper, I am -- powerfully interested. AMANDA COOL     Tunis the Unstoppable!  Snap!  He's found us, but how? SNAP HARPER     He must have listening devices planted in these service crawlspaces.  Blast Tunis's cleverness! TUNIS     I would return the compliment, Snap Harper, but it would be pointless. AMANDA COOL     Oh, Snap! TUNIS     For you are about to die!  Flood the room with gas! MUSIC STING ANNOUNCER     After just a short word from our sponsor, Tunis the Unstopppable will outline his cunning plan for doing in Snap Harper.  But first-- --END--  

Legislative hijinks are happening in Congress right now and they are going to have an impact on the timing of a potential tax increase coming down the road. The Senate has struggled for a while now to come to an agreement on a $1 trillion infrastructure package, but with some bipartisan cooperation they've pushed it through. Democrats in Congress have turned their attention to a $3.5 trillion budget that is going to be a much bigger challenge. Any tax increase that gets pushed through will be part of this budget because it is going through budget reconciliation, which has several implications. Everything included in this bill will expire in 8 years because of the nature of budget reconciliation.  The Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, has declared that they won't vote on the $1 trillion infrastructure bill until she feels they have enough votes for the larger $3.5 trillion budget. The GOP has made it clear that they will oppose the larger bill at every turn which is why the Democrats are resorting to budget reconciliation to get the bill done. The proposal contains plans to expand healthcare coverage, universal Pre-K and free community college, ambitious federal programs to combat climate change, and a path to citizenship for qualified immigrants. There is a lot riding on this package for President Biden and the Democrats going into the 2022 midterms. There are a group of moderate Democrats that are uncomfortable with the size of the bill. Joe Manchin has spoken out against the high level of spending among other prominent Democrats. Progressives are pushing five things with the bill by recasting different political issues as economic. This is the argument for pushing the bill through the budget reconciliation process. Because of the lack of Democrat cohesion on the bill, it is unlikely to pass anytime soon. Biden needs a win going into the midterms and stalling now is not going to look good. Tied into that is the future of tax rates. Even with the increased taxes built into the bill, spending will still go up. The government will not have enough revenue to cover the cost of the bill, which means the debt will continue to rise. The tax cuts on middle America will likely be extended for another 8 years, and this means the debt is going to continue to compound and the fix in 2030 will be even more aggressive. These developments not only directly impact people making systematic shifts from tax-deferred to tax-free over the next eight years, but we need to consider the environment of fiscal instability coming down the road.   Mentioned in this Episode: Here Are 5 Hurdles That Democrats Face Now For Their $3.5 Trillion Budget - npr.org/2021/08/12/1026184120/here-are-5-hurdles-that-democrats-face-now-for-their-3-5-trillion-budget

India had the power to take away Pakistan's 'location' card but it didn't have the determination and guts with which Rawalpindi has played that card. Read full article here: https://theprint.in/opinion/a-us-not-tied-in-afghanistan-only-helps-india-deal-with-pakistan-problem-better/720247/

Hypoglycemia is very hard on the adrenal glands. It is a challenge during the day, but also very hard on your system at night. During sleep, Candida feeds on your blood sugar. This stresses the body and the brain and your glucose levels are lowered significantly. Your brain relies on the right amount of glucose to function properly. Therefore, this stress during sleep overworks the adrenal glands due to this imbalance in blood sugar. When the adrenals become fatigued it also creates an imbalance in your thyroid gland. When cortisol release becomes deregulated by the adrenal glands, it can result in adrenal fatigue. The adrenals will often release too much Cortisol. A common symptom is waking in the night, usually around 3:00 a.m... Candida and Leaky Gut Candida can attach itself to the wall of the intestines, creating holes that allow undigested foods and other toxins to enter the bloodstream. This is known as “leaky gut.” It is essential to protect the gut and keep it healthy since it is the main source of our immune system, and it filters out toxins from the environment, including foods. Antibody producing cells line the intestines and secrete a substance called immunoglobulin A or IgA... Supplements That Help To Balance Blood Sugar  Be sure vitamin D3 levels are adequate. One of the leading researchers in vitamin D, Dr. Michael Holick, has found that, “Children who receive vitamin D supplements from the age of one and on had an 80% decreased risk of developing Type I diabetes” (www.mercola.com)... How To Assist Stabilizing Blood Sugar with Diet Protein is a great choice because it is low on the glycemic index. When we eat protein, it takes a longer time for our body to break it down. The higher nutrient content combined with a low GI will also assist in satiation. Our body will be fed a source of food it can utilize and one that takes much longer to digest. This keeps us feeling full longer and does not have a negative impact on blood sugar... Click Here or Click the link below for more details! https://naturallyrecoveringautism.com/133

The guys preview the AFC South- (Texans in disarray; Jags improving but still a way to go; Colts and Titans likely playoff teams) and briefly discuss the terrific Milwaukee Brewers (tied for second in wins in all of MLB).

TIED of talmbout this VAX. TIED of defending the person I am to people I care about … I'm TIED this episode

On Episode 16 of Dynasty in the Woods: after a wild Game 2, both programs head in different directions before the rubber match of the CWS Finals.   Dynasty in the Woods is a documentary-style podcast series that covers Beaver Baseball and especially the 2018 postseason. Hosted by Josh Worden, an OSU broadcaster & reporter.   The next episode comes out a week from now; get access to all 18 episodes of the series right NOW for $20 or a donation to charity. You can do that here!   Here's the charities I'm sponsoring on this podcast: check them out & donate here: Food for the Hungry https://www.fh.org/ Kingdom Home https://kingdomhome.org/ Children's Garden https://childrensgarden.ph/  Old Mill Center http://www.oldmillcenter.org/    Bob Lundeberg is writing a book on the Oregon State baseball team and 2017-2018 in particular. Follow him on Twitter so you'll be the first to know when & how to order a copy @The_Real_Bob    Feedback? Suggestions? Get in touch: my email is worden.josh@gmail.com   Radio clips used with permission from Learfield IMG College. Copyright-free music accessed through Evoke Music, Fesliyan Studios, YouTube Audio Library and Purple Planet Music.

This week your Momgienists podcast we are joined by Cheryl Shafer who has been a Dental Hygienist since 1985, who specializes in oral function, tethered oral tissue and breathing. She is helping those with orofacial myofunctional disorders find the root cause and solutions by collaborating with an integrative team of medical and dental providers.   Episode Highlights Cheryl's background Facial function  We want our patients to thrive It's not too late Michelle's journey  Quotes    “The hygienists are the most underutilized healthcare professionals.”   “One of the amazing things about what I do is that I don't work in isolation, I work as a myofunctional therapist in collaboration with all healthcare professionals.”    “Dental and Medical should be married.”    “The rewards are breathtaking.”    “Warning for everyone, if you dive into this subject you will dive deep into the rabbit hole, there is always more and more and more to learn.”    “There is so much I wish I knew for when my child was young that I would do differently.”    “He wrote his college essay on the pain that he suffered because he had oral dysfunction.”    “Waiting until someone is 8 years old to see the orthodontist for the first time is too late.”    “Foundation first, teeth second.”    “I feel like I have found my value and purpose.”   “He said Cheryl, you are doing God's work.”   “If we rise, all of us rise.”    Links cherylshafer@facialfunction.com   www.facialfunction.com      Jasmin Instagram: @itjasminhaley  Facebook: @itsjasminhaley Website: www.jasminhaley.com   Karen Instagram: @ skaren52    Michelle Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/michelle.barrios.37669 Email: Michelle2rdh@gmail.com   Christie  Instagram: @yoursmilinghygienist Website: www.yoursmilinghygienist.com

Do you love your job, but not your manager?  That's the number one reason, Colin Wilford, a career planning expert and counselor at Wilford Scholes, says people leave their place of work. However, working in an industry you don't have passion for simply to get a higher paycheck is another big reason people aren't happy in their career. You can follow this show on Instagram and on Facebook. And to see what Heather does when she's not talking money, go to her personal Twitter page. Be sure to email Heather your questions and request topics you'd like her to cover here. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tonight's guests are Rep. Jamie Raskin, Dr. Rachel Villanueva, president of the National Medical Association, LaTosha Brown, co-founder of the Black Voters Matter Fund, and Richard Engel, NBC News chief foreign correspondent.