The Numbers

The post-election polling hasn't been kind to Pierre Poilievre and his Conservatives. Is it just a blip or something the Conservatives should start worrying about?This week on The Numbers, we take a look at what the federal polls say about Poilievre's future. We also get a report from Philippe's trip to Quebec City for the Quebec Liberal leadership that was won by Pablo Rodriguez and we look at provincial polling numbers from coast-to-coast with new premier approval ratings data and voting intentions results from across the country.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney has been prime minister for three months and his honeymoon appears to be holding as new polls show his own personal numbers continue to sparkle — even if the Liberals aren't much further ahead in voting intentions than they were in April's election. How long can these good vibes last?We break down the latest federal polls on this week's episode of The Numbers. Plus, we have some new data out of Alberta and Ontario and a leadership contest (finally) coming to a close in Quebec. Will presumed front runner Pablo Rodriguez be the next Quebec Liberal leader, or could an upset be in the making at this weekend's convention in Quebec City?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/cw/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new poll suggests that not only is Ontario's Doug Ford the most well-known provincial premier in the country, he is also the most popular in the country as a whole. Does that make Doug Ford Canada's premiere premier?This week on The Numbers, we dig into some polling by Pollara on how Canadians view their premier and the premiers of other provinces. We also delve into some numbers from Janet Brown Opinion Research on Albertans' voting intentions, impressions of Danielle Smith and Naheed Nenshi and where the province stands on independence, as well as a trio of key provincial byelections being held on June 23.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here!https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

King Charles III kicked off a new parliamentary session on Tuesday by reading the government's speech from the throne, the first time the monarch has done so since 1977. Does this herald a newfound enthusiasm for the Crown in Canada, or would Canadians prefer to chuck Charles and become a republic?On this episode of The Numbers, we break down a series of polls that gauge Canadians' opinions of the monarchy. We also delve into more data on Alberta sovereignty, some new federal numbers and discuss just what the NDP thought it was doing in the final days of the campaign as it tried to save Jagmeet Singh's seat.Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodThe bonus episodes are also available via an Apple Podcasts subscription.You can watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Prime Minister Mark Carney named his new cabinet last week. Do his choices suggest some electoral considerations came into play on who did and didn't made the cut — and does a cabinet minister make a difference at the ballot box? Plus, Pierre Poilievre's byelection in Battle River–Crowfoot looms, as does the prickly subject of Alberta separation.This week on The Numbers, we discuss some of these new developments in federal politics. We also delve into new polling numbers in Ontario and Alberta, as well as in Quebec where the Parti Québécois is holding a wide lead. Could Pablo Rodriguez, if he wins the Quebec Liberal leadership, shake things up? And how could a referendum on Alberta independence impact that debate in Quebec?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

With referendums on separation a real possibility in the not-so-distant future, is there a chance that Alberta and/or Saskatchewan could vote to leave the country? We take a look at some of the latest polling numbers on the subject on this episode of The Numbers.Plus, both the Conservatives and New Democrats have named some interim leaders (Andrew Scheer as head of the opposition until Pierre Poilievre gets into the House, and Don Davies as interim NDP leader until his replacement is named). What can we read into these choices? And does it matter that the judicial recount in Terrebonne has pushed the Liberals one seat closer to an outright majority?Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney's Liberals secured a big minority government in last week's election, but not the majority they were hoping for. Is 169 seats, three short of the majority threshold, as good as a majority in the current context?On this episode of The Numbers, we debate how long it will be before we're heading to the polls once again. We also discuss some post-election polling that hints at how different demographics voted and we chat about Pierre Poilievre's future in Battle River–Crowfoot and beyond. Plus, The Quiz is back!Looking for even more of The Numbers? If you join our Patreon and support this joint project of ours, you'll get ad-free episodes every week, bonus episodes several times per month and access to our lively Discord. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It was a remarkable end to an unprecedented few months in Canadian politics. Mark Carney's Liberals came up just short of a majority with 169 seats, while the Conservatives won 144 seats but did not see their leader, Pierre Poilievre, win his. The New Democrats put up their worst performance in all of their history and saw leader Jagmeet Singh go down to defeat as well. But with seven seats, the NDP still holds the balance of power — as does Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois.So, there are lots of numbers to go into on this episode of The Numbers. How did the polls perform? How did our projections do? And what results surprised us the most?Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We're going to go back to a weekly schedule of episodes, with bonus episodes for members of our Patreon. Become a member to continue supporting this podcast and to get access to those episodes as well as to our lively Discord server. Join here! https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney's Liberals still hold a lead over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives in our projections with only days to go before this campaign is all over. Will anything change between now and Monday?On this episode of The Numbers, we go over our projections and discuss whether or not the polls are really tightening. We then take a look at where each party stands and assess what would be a good or bad night for each of them. Can Jagmeet Singh's NDP retain official party status? Will Yves-François Blanchet and the Bloc Québécois hold the balance of power? Can the Greens avoid disaster?And, of course, who will win the election?Thanks for all of your support during this campaign! We'll have one more final episode on Saturday for members of our Patreon. You can listen to that episode and join our Discord by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We're in the final week of this federal election campaign and the polls are still showing that Mark Carney's Liberals remain the heavy favourites against Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. But if the Liberals are in majority territory today, just how much of a cushion do they really have?This week on The Numbers, we delve into the national polling numbers and our (somewhat differing) projections. We also take a look at some local polling in the Greater Toronto Area and on Vancouver Island.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The polls suggest the race could be getting closer between Mark Carney's Liberals and Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives. But the Liberals are still way ahead in Quebec. Did last night's French-language leaders' debate change that?On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened during the debate and whether it'll have any impact on the polls. We also chat about what appears to be a tightening race and where our projections disagree.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

After a period of broad consensus, there's been a few divergences in the polls. Are we seeing real movement between Mark Carney's Liberals and Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, or just some normal fluctuations between random surveys? We try to make sense of some of the numbers.Plus, we discuss our projections (is Saskatchewan really in play?) and chat about how Carney and Poilievre did on the much-watched Radio-Canada program, Tout le monde en parle.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

At Pierre Poilievre's Conservative rally in Brampton on Wednesday, some supporters wore sweaters and held banners asking a simple question: “do you believe the polls?”Yes. Yes, we do.On this episode of The Numbers, we break down what the polls are showing and explain why every indicator suggests not only that Mark Carney's Liberals are leading, but that they are in a very good position to win a majority government.This election isn't over, and in that sense having a healthy doubt about the polls is fine. And polls are never 100% accurate. But if anyone is thinking these polls are completely bogus snapshots of where things are today — well, we have some thoughts about that.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Do we have a polling controversy on our hands? Maybe! Over the last few days, we've seen a few polls published that portray some starkly different public opinion environments. Are Mark Carney's Liberals leading by double-digits, or are Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives keeping them to a close race? Or is it somewhere in between?On this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the diverging poll numbers. We also take a deep dive into some B.C. regional polling numbers and look at a pair of ridings that could be worth watching on election night. Does the NDP actually have a chance to win a second seat in Quebec?Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

While the consensus in the polls pretty clearly points to an advantage for Mark Carney's Liberals over Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, what should we make of those individual surveys that show the race to be far closer — perhaps even tied? And how should we interpret the polls that show the Liberals surging in regions they haven't won in decades?In this episode of The Numbers, we try to make some sense of the numbers. We also look at some polls from Léger that have surprising regional breakdowns of support within Ontario and British Columbia.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's clear enough that Mark Carney's Liberals would be the favourites to win this election if it were held today. But as support for the party in parts of the country grows to levels not seen in decades, just where those Liberal seat gains will happen is tough to predict.On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss how the electoral map is shifting. We also chat about whether or not Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats can beat expectations and if there are any signs that Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives can turn things around.Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodDid you miss our special episode on Saturday? Patreon members can listen to it here.https://www.patreon.com/posts/week-1-goes-to-125451769You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Early campaign polls show that the New Democrats under Jagmeet Singh are in freefall, propelling Mark Carney's Liberals to new highs in support. Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives are holding steady, but that just means they are losing ground as the Liberals keep moving ahead.On this episode of The Numbers, Philippe J. Fournier and I discuss what the latest polling numbers say about how this campaign is unfolding. Can the NDP save any of its seats? Have the Liberals run into trouble in Quebec? And will the Conservatives be able to turn things around?Throughout this campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The writ has dropped and the campaign buses are rolling. It also means the pollsters are polling — and, as hard as their numbers are to believe after what has been an extraordinary few months, you better believe them. The Liberal edge is real.But can it be sustained for the next five weeks? On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss whether or not Mark Carney's Liberals have hit their ceiling and just how solid their support really is. We also break down the difficult situation Jagmeet Singh and the New Democrats find themselves in.Starting this week and going straight through to the end of the campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A flurry of polls conducted just ahead of Sunday's expected writ drop show the Liberals in the lead — and potentially in majority territory. Have the Liberals really gone from catastrophic to the favourites in a matter of weeks?On this episode of The Numbers, we break down the polls showing Mark Carney's Liberals to be ahead of Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and try to make sense of what is happening. We also discuss results from two provincial byelections held in Quebec and Manitoba this week.Starting next week straight through to the end of the campaign, we'll have new episodes of The Numbers on Mondays, Thursdays and Saturdays, with the Saturday episodes being exclusively for members of our Patreon. Members will also get to suggest questions for the mailbag portion of our Saturday episodes as well as gain access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership race in emphatic fashion on Sunday and an election call seems only days away.This week on The Numbers, we dissect the results of the Liberal leadership contest and what the latest polls are saying about Carney's chances against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives. Plus, we take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec and British Columbia.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A series of polls published last week put the Liberals and Conservatives neck-and-neck. This week, the numbers are putting Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives back in front by a sizeable margin. Has the Liberal surge already ended?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest federal polling numbers. We also do a round of over/unders on Sunday's Liberal leadership race where Mark Carney is heavily favoured to win, plus we discuss some new polling out of Quebec. Then, Philippe has a Quiz on past Liberal leadership contests.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Doug Ford gambled when he called an early election, but it paid off in spades last night as his Progressive Conservatives won their third consecutive majority government. It wasn't necessarily the bigger mandate he wanted, but a win's a win. And that was a win.The surprise of the night, though, was the performance of Marit Stiles's NDP. The party's vote went down significantly, as the polls predicted. But the NDP still managed to squeeze a lot of seats out of a lot less of the vote, as incumbency ruled the day in what was an otherwise status quo election. We try to make some sense out of how the NDP managed to defy expectations. And what do we make of the performance of Bonnie Crombie's Liberals — good enough to regain recognized party status, but not good enough to get their leader elected?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's been a whirlwind few weeks in the polls as the Liberals have closed the gap on the Conservatives. At first, the Liberals were merely on track for a smaller defeat than before. But now the polls are pointing to the possibility that the prime minister after the next election might not be Pierre Poilievre. It could be Mark Carney.This week on The Numbers, we delve into the wild federal polls that have been published over the last few days. We also discuss the Liberal leadership race, the resignations of two Atlantic premiers and give our final assessment of the Ontario election campaign. Doug Ford's PCs are heading to a majority victory, but what is going to happen to Bonnie Crombie's Liberals and Marit Stiles's NDP?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As the Liberals close the gap on Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats are in danger of being completely eclipsed. Polls even suggest that if Mark Carney becomes the new Liberal leader, the NDP could be pushed into single digits.And in Ontario, Marit Stiles's NDP could lose half of its seats (or more) as the fight for second place appears to be Bonnie Crombie's and the Ontario Liberals' to lose.This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the latest federal and Ontario polling numbers, as well as break down some new fundraising data from the Liberal leadership race. We also chat about an upcoming Manitoba byelection and polls out of British Columbia and Yukon. Finally, Philippe has a Quiz!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Liberals have made significant gains in a number of recent polls, closing the gap with Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives, in some case, to single-digits. And when Mark Carney is substituted-in for Justin Trudeau, that gap disappears entirely. Have we entered an entirely new federal race?On this week's episode of The Numbers we also discuss some of the latest polling numbers out of the dynamic and exciting (sarcasm) Ontario election campaign, as well as a byelection call in Quebec and some new polls out of Alberta and British Columbia.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube.https://youtu.be/sakffqWeHhY Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The trend is getting irrefutable — the Liberals have reversed their slide since Justin Trudeau's resignation. But just how competitive is the race really getting, and how much of it is based on the idea of Mark Carney rather than the reality?On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss some of the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean. We also discuss the fourth quarter fundraising figures for 2024 and new developments in the Liberal leadership contest. Then, we break down where things stand in the ongoing Ontario election campaign and take a look at some new provincial numbers out of Quebec.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. https://youtu.be/9vqTM_CtYZo Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

One thing seems clear these days: the polls aren't very clear these days.While there appears to be some indication of a Liberal uptick since Justin Trudeau's resignation, there are big disagreements about just how big that uptick is. Not only is there a discrepancy in the federal polls, there are diverging polls in Ontario's election campaign, too. Could the two be related — and just what can we say with any certainty?We also take a look at the state of the Liberal leadership race and a new poll out of Quebec that has good news for the Bloc Québécois and Parti Québécois but, conversely, bad news for the Quebec sovereignty movement.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspodYou can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Citing the need for a new, stronger mandate to take on Donald Trump's tariffs, Doug Ford looks poised to call an Ontario election more than a year ahead of schedule. It's a campaign that would play out while Justin Trudeau is still prime minister and Pierre Poilievre isn't. Is this a smart political gambit for Ford's PCs, or could it blow up in the premier's face?This week on The Numbers, we dissect the latest numbers out of Ontario — as well as some diverging trendlines at the federal level. One poll shows the Liberals surging. Is it an outlier or something new? Plus, we take a look at the federal Liberal leadership race and discuss whether or not this contest is Mark Carney's to lose.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon. (https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod)You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we take a look at the winnowing field of Liberal leadership contestants. We also discuss some new polling numbers that suggest the Conservatives have grown their support since Justin Trudeau announced he was resigning as prime minister.Plus, is Doug Ford preparing to send Ontarians to the polls?You can also watch this episode on YouTube.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here: https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss the impact of Justin Trudeau's resignation as prime minister and Liberal leader, as well as the early moves in the contest to replace him. What do the polls say about the chances his successor will have against Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives?And who will that successor be? We hold an auction to choose our picks for the most likely winners of the Liberal leadership race.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.https://www.patreon.com/c/thenumberspod Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's that time of year again!Time for us to match wits as we try to predict the political year to come. How many seats will the Conservatives win in the next federal election? Will the Liberals' vote share be above or below the historic low set in 2011? How many leaders will resign on election night?And who made the best predictions for 2024?In addition to taking out the crystal ball for the federal campaign, we also make some guesses about what to expect in provincial elections in Ontario, Newfoundland and Labrador and in politics across the country!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here at thenumberspod.ca. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's hard to find the right adjectives to describe what happened with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government this week following the resignation of former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. But we try our best to make sense of what just happened and what could happen next. We also talk about some of the first post-resignation polling numbers that have been published since it all went down.Plus, we have federal byelection results to dissect in Cloverdale–Langley City and provincial results to discuss in Lethbridge-West, as well as new poll out of Manitoba.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the latest federal polling that continues to look rough for Justin Trudeau. Next week's byelection in the B.C. riding of Cloverdale–Langley City also looks rough for the Liberals, as the Conservatives appear likely to flip the seat that has gone back and forth between the two parties since 2015.We also take a look at the latest premier approval ratings, how things are shaping up for Doug Ford in Ontario and just who is the favourite in next week's Alberta provincial byelection in Lethbridge-West.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Four new polls put the Liberals and New Democrats within zero to two points of each other — and behind the Conservatives by margins of 19 to 23 points. We delve into the numbers and what they mean for each of the parties. Has Justin Trudeau's promised GST holiday helped or hurt his chances?We also discuss provincial polls coming out of Ontario and Quebec, where two incumbent premiers (Doug Ford and François Legault) face two very different futures.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new poll, employing a new methodology, has the Conservatives at their highest and the Liberals at their lowest levels of support in years — maybe even a decade. What to make of it?On this week's episode of The Numbers, we also break down Tim Houston's PC landslide in the Nova Scotia election and take a look at some recent polls out of Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A new poll by Abacus Data puts the Liberals and NDP neck-and-neck in national voting intentions, well behind the Conservatives. But this isn't the first time it's happened. Is it a blip or another worrying sign for Justin Trudeau?On this episode of The Numbers, we take a look at the federal polling landscape. We then discuss some new numbers out of Quebec before taking a deep-dive into the Nova Scotia provincial election. Could anything put a big win by Tim Houston's PCs in doubt, and who has the inside track on forming the official opposition?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Liberals face a tough test — maybe their toughest test yet — in an upcoming byelection in the B.C. Lower Mainland. Will Justin Trudeau and the Liberals lose their third contest in a row?We also take a look at the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and Jagmeet Singh's NDP. Then, we discuss new provincial polling numbers ahead of Nova Scotia's election and Ontario's apparently upcoming election. Finally, we chat about new polling from Quebec that continues to show trouble for Premier François Legault.Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.As always, you can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Pollsters under-estimated Donald Trump's support in his first two presidential campaigns. Did they do it a third time this year? We take a look at how the polls performed south of the border — and what the results could mean for politics on this side of it.We also dissect some of the latest federal polling and fundraising numbers, plus we take a look at where things stand in the early days of the Nova Scotia provincial election campaign. Then, we close with a U.S.-themed Quiz!Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The Sask. Party held on in Saskatchewan in what turned out to be a close election, but the polls nevertheless missed the mark by a wide margin. We break down the results. We also take a look at the final count in British Columbia and the snap election call in Nova Scotia, where Tim Houston is hoping to avoid an incumbent slump. Then, we discuss the latest federal polls and whether the Liberals have any good alternatives for leader. Plus, the return of The Quiz!If you aren't already a member of our Patreon and want to listen to this week's mailbag episode, you can join here. Members get a bonus mailbag episode every week and one special episode every month on a topic of members' choosing! Members also get to participate in our lively Discord.This episode is also available on YouTube here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the surprising results of the British Columbia and New Brunswick provincial elections. What's next for the B.C. Conservatives, what do we make of the Liberals' shellacking of the PCs out east and how did the polls do?We also discuss the mini-revolt within the Liberal caucus and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau's leadership. There's also a new poll giving the Saskatchewan NDP the lead ahead of Monday's vote, and another poll showing Doug Ford's Ontario PCs on cruise control. Does it mean an early election?Want even more of The Numbers? Members of our Patreon get extra mailbag episodes every week and special episodes monthly, as well as access to our Discord. You can get these exclusives and support our joint project by becoming a member of our Patreon here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Justin Trudeau faces a leadership challenge from within his own caucus — will it be the beginning of the end for him? Plus, there are just days to go in the election campaigns in British Columbia and New Brunswick. We break down the latest polls, plus some new numbers out of Saskatchewan, which is also hurtling toward its own decision day.We then play a Provincial Election Draft and answer questions from the listener mailbag about the machinations in Ottawa.Apologies for the poor audio from Éric during the first half of this episode.As suggested in the podcast, if you'd like to add The Numbers to your favourite podcasting app, follow the instructions after clicking on this link.Livestreams on SATURDAY and MONDAY can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/@TheWrit/streamsA video of this episode is available on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we discuss a couple of new polls that put the Conservatives first, the NDP second and the Liberals in third. Is this the start of a new trend? We also chat about the state of the race in British Columbia, where the B.C. Conservatives have pushed ahead David Eby's NDP, and a new poll out of Quebec that shows continued trouble for Premier François Legault.In the mailbag, we answer questions about the potential for prorogation and just how low the Liberals' floor could go. Finally, the tables are turned for a Mini Quiz for Philippe.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we parse through the results of Monday's byelections in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun and Elmwood–Transcona. Is it End Times for the Liberals? We also grade ourselves on our Byelection Draft and Over/Under choices. Plus, a confidence vote is on the docket next week. What do we make of the Bloc's early positioning — and what about Pablo Rodriguez's decision to make the jump to provincial politics?We also take a look at some new polls out of British Columbia and Thursday's writ drop in New Brunswick.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week on The Numbers, we break down the implications of Jagmeet Singh's decision to end the supply and confidence agreement between the NDP and the Liberals. What does it mean for the upcoming byelections — and when will the general election be? We also discuss what new polls say about the impact of BCU's withdrawal from the upcoming B.C. election campaign.In the mailbag, we answer a listener question on how a Trump election win may or may not change Canada's political landscape. Then, Philippe tests Éric against a machine in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

It's poll-a-palooza on The Numbers this week, as we tackle five federal polls, two B.C. polls and new numbers out of Saskatchewan, New Brunswick and Alberta. Also, there's a snap byelection call in Ontario that took us by surprise.We compare caucus sizes in response to a listener question, and then Philippe has a Quiz on historical premiers.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

What are the most likely results of the Elmwood–Transcona and LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelections? We rank the potential outcomes — with a draft! We also discuss the latest federal polling numbers and what they mean for all parties (especially the NDP), the prospect of Pablo Rodriguez as PLQ leader, and some new polling numbers out of Saskatchewan.In our mailbag, we discuss what a Canadian VP sweepstakes would look like, plus Philippe tests Éric with a Prairie-themed Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

A byelection call looms in LaSalle–Émard–Verdun in a contest that could prove a stiff test for the Liberals, as the NDP and Bloc target what has been a safe Liberal seat in Montreal. Plus, another call could come in the Winnipeg riding of Elmwood–Transcona, where the Conservatives will put the NDP on the defensive.(Note: the Liberals announced their candidate for Elmwood–Transcona shortly after we recorded.)We also chat about the announcements from Seamus O'Regan and Francis Drouin that they won't be running for re-election and answer listener questions from the mailbag — and provide a Margin of Error 101 refresher course. Then, Philippe tests Éric with a Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that gauges just how recognizable Justin Trudeau, Pierre Poilievre and other party leaders and top figures in the Liberal Party really are to Canadians. We also chat about the latest federal numbers, the ubiquitous Mark Carney rumours, the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun byelection and provincial polling out of British Columbia and Ontario.In the mailbag, we answer a question about whether or not we can calculate the odds of big swings happening in future elections. Then, Philippe is put to the test with an impromptu Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As we wait to return from our break, we're back this week with an extended mailbag episode to answer your questions, including:Is it better to have an election in the summer or the winter?Are the Liberals still the "natural governing party"?Which past party leader who lost an election might have had a better shot at a different time?Plus answers to questions on projection models, polling methods and more!This episode was recorded on July 3. We'll be back with a regular episode next week!Support the podcast on Patreon and get bonus episodes every two weeks, extended mailbag segments every week, ask us questions for the mailbag and join our Discord! Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss what happened in the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and what it means for the future of Justin Trudeau and the Liberals. We also chat about Naheed Nenshi's landslide win in the Alberta NDP leadership race and provincial premiers' approval ratings.For the mailbag, we discuss whether Toronto–St. Paul's was a one-off or not (and we have many more byelection-related questions in the members-only extended mailbag). Then, Philippe harkens back to the 2006 election for the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On this week's episode of The Numbers, we discuss a new poll that puts the gap between the Conservatives and the Liberals at the smallest its been in months. We also chat about some new polls out of Atlantic Canada, Ontario and Quebec, and an upcoming byelection option for Naheed Nenshi in Alberta. We answer a question on the Toronto–St. Paul's byelection and Philippe has more trivia for Éric in the Quiz.To join the Discord page for The Numbers, get early access to episodes every Thursday, an extended mailbag segment and bonus episodes every second week, you can become a member of our Patreon site here.You can also watch this episode on YouTube here. Get bonus content on Patreon Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.