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In this episode, China scholar David C. Kang joins Ray Powell and Jim Carouso to discuss his recent Foreign Affairs article, “What China Doesn't Want”, which argues that Beijing's geostrategic ambitions are much more limited than Washington's foreign policy establishment believes. Kang challenges the prevailing consensus that China seeks regional hegemony and global primacy, arguing instead that China's aims are narrower, more domestic, and more status quo than commonly assumed.A contrarian perspective on China's intentions: Kang and his co-authors analyzed approximately 12,000 Chinese articles and hundreds of Xi Jinping speeches, concluding that systematic analysis reveals China's priorities are internal stability and Taiwan, not global domination or territorial conquest of neighboring states.The debate over regional threat perceptions: While Kang argues that countries like Vietnam, South Korea, and Japan view China more pragmatically than Washington does, the hosts push back with examples of regional maritime tensions, arguing that frontline states see China as a more serious threat than Kang credits.Taiwan as the central flashpoint: All three agree China prefers a "boa constrictor" strategy of gradual pressure over military invasion, but disagree on how to interpret low-probability war risks and whether recent U.S.-Taiwan moves constitute status quo changes.Gray-zone success and maritime expansion: Powell argues China is the 21st century's most successful maritime expansionist power, achieving objectives through gray-zone and political warfare in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and Yellow Sea without conventional war.The South China Sea disputes: The conversation explores China's aggressive island-building and exclusion zones around Scarborough Shoal, with Kang acknowledging these as serious issues but distinguishing them from existential threats that would trigger regional wars.Regional balancing vs. living with China: Kang contends Southeast Asian nations focus on "how to live with China" rather than preparing for war or joining containment coalitions, while the hosts draw on their experiences in diplomatic posts to argue that these countries privately seek American presence as a critical counterbalance.Methodology matters: Kang defends his systematic analysis of Chinese rhetoric against accusations of cherry-picking, arguing that scholars must distinguish between propaganda, sincere statements, and observed behavior—and that critics often cherry-pick quotes themselves.War probabilities and deterrence: Even if China's intention to fight over Taiwan is low, the hosts emphasize that even 10-20% odds of catastrophic war demand serious deterrence planning and military readiness.
In this crossover episode from the China Talk podcast, Nathan Labenz shares a thought-provoking conversation between Jordan Schneider, Ilari Michaela, and Professor David C. Kang that challenges conventional Western perspectives on East Asian international relations. Professor Kang argues that studying East Asian history on its own terms reveals a remarkably stable geopolitical system spanning nearly a millennium, where China maintained regional dominance without conquest through compatible cultures and mutual understanding. This alternative framework offers valuable insights that question the seemingly inevitable US-China competition narrative dominating AI discourse, suggesting that internal challenges may be more significant than external threats for both China and the United States. SPONSORS: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers next-generation cloud solutions that cut costs and boost performance. With OCI, you can run AI projects and applications faster and more securely for less. New U.S. customers can save 50% on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking by switching to OCI before May 31, 2024. See if you qualify at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) About the Episode (03:30) Introduction to East Asian Relations (04:41) Internal vs External Challenges (07:05) Song Dynasty's Fall (13:35) Western vs Eastern Frontiers (19:06) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 1) (20:30) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | Shopify (23:45) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 2) (25:57) Vietnam-China Relations (30:08) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 1) (32:19) Sponsors: NetSuite (33:52) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 2) (35:17) The Imjin War (43:36) Thucydides Trap Question (49:19) Power Transition Theory Debate (53:49) Expansion and Frontiers (01:02:00) Modern Implications (01:06:00) PRC and Imperial Legacy (01:13:16) Taiwan and Modern Challenges (01:25:42) US Role in East Asia (01:29:35) Concluding Thoughts (01:37:17) Outro
Why do wars start? How can we avoid them? Do countries wage wars whenever it suits their own goals? Or are wars a product of failed understanding and military madmen? These are questions at the centre of the study of war and peace. But for too long, the field of international relations has answered them by scavenging data from European history alone. To better understand the human capacity for peace, we need to understand military history more broadly. Or so argues David C. Kang, a professor at the University of Southern California. A Korean American scholar of international relations, Kang argues that the histories of China, Japan, Korea, and Vietnam give us lessons that no reading of European countries could: lessons about neighbouring countries living in peace for centuries. Yes, there was violence. At times, there was war. But peace between these countries prevailed for stunningly long periods. And contrary to standard theories of war and peace, this wasn't achieved by a “balance of powers”, nor by an inability to sustain military operations. But is this too peaceful a picture of East Asian history? Didn't China keep up bullying Vietnam? What about the epic wars started by Japan? What about the Mongols, the Great Wall, and China's expansion on its Western frontier? And what, if anything, can this tell about war and peace in the 21st Century? Doesn't the “Thucydides trap” make a war between the US and China inevitable? We discuss these and many other questions in this fascinating episode. I am particularly glad to bring you this episode as it brings together two of the major themes on the show this fall: the study of war and peace and the study of Asian history. Co-hosting again was Jordan Schneider from ChinaTalk. Check out also our “What About China” trilogy from September (episodes #44-36)! LINKS Kang's new book, co-authored with Xinru Ma, is Beyond Power Transitions. You can read my essays and get the On Humans newsletter at OnHumans.Substack.com. Feeling generous? Join the wonderful group of my patrons at Patreon.com/OnHumans, or get in touch for other ways to support! Email: makela dot ilari at outlook dot com MENTIONS Books Beyond Bronze Pillars by Liam Kelley Technical terms Thucydides trap | Westphalian system | Balance of powers | IR (=internationa relations) | keju civil service | Keywords War | Peace | International relations | China | Japan | Korea | Social science of war | History | Military history | Humanities | Vietnam | East Asia | Thucidides trap |
In this special episode of The Korea Pro Podcast, co-hosts Jeongmin and John are joined by David C. Kang, professor of International Relations and Business at the University of Southern California. The wide-ranging discussion delves into the complexities of the U.S.-South Korea alliance as both countries navigate domestic political shifts and face evolving challenges in the region. Kang shares his insights on South Korea's considerations surrounding potential domestic nuclear weapons development, the limitations of U.S. security assurances and the missed opportunity of the Hanoi Summit between former U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The conversation also explores the impact of a potential Trump return to the White House on the alliance, as well as the U.S. role in supporting democracy in Asia. The discussion touches upon potential conflict points between South Korea and the U.S., including trade tensions and policy differences toward Japan and China. Kang also offers recommendations for U.S. and South Korean leaders in addressing regional challenges, emphasizing the need for diplomatic and economic solutions beyond military measures. About the podcast: The Korea Pro Podcast is a weekly 15-minute conversation hosted by Editorial Director Jeongmin Kim (@jeongminnkim) and Editor John Lee (@koreanforeigner), diving deep into the most pressing stories shaping South Korea — and dissecting the most complicated ones for professionals monitoring ROK politics, diplomacy, culture, society and technology. Uploaded every Friday. This episode was recorded on July 4, 2024. Audio edited by Joe Smith
CPF Co-Director Mike Murphy is joined by USC professors Nina Rathbun and David Kang, journalist Markos Kounalakis, and foreign policy expert Kori Schake to assess the historic Afghanistan withdrawal, tensions with China, and compare Biden's success with Trump's. Featuring: Mike Murphy - Co-Director, Center for the Political Future; NBC Analyst David C. Kang - Maria Crutcher Professor in International Relations, Business, and East Asian Languages and Cultures; Director, Korean Studies Institute, USC Dornsife Markos Kounalakis - Foreign Affairs Columnist, Author, and Scholar; Visiting Fellow, Hoover Institution at Stanford University Kori Schake - Director of Foreign and Defense Policy Studies, American Enterprise Institute; Former Foreign Policy Advisor for John McCain's presidential campaign Nina Srinivasan Rathbun - Professor of International Relations, USC Dornsife
Fears of a new era of great power competition in East Asia are gripping Washington - but nobody seems to have told the region's states, which are maintaining low defense spending and resolving disputes among one another. This John Quincy Adams Society digital discussion features David C. Kang of the University of Southern California.
Is China truly the security threat in Asia that Washington seems convinced it is? David Kang doesn't think so, and he points the actions of the Koreas and others as evidence that states in the region are calibrated to a world in which China does not need to be balanced against. On this week's podcast, Dr. Kang explains how this fundamental misunderstanding of the security calculus spills over into the North Korea issue, explores the top-down engagement approach currently favored by U.S. and North Korean leaders, and how decision-makers can better align policy to more accurately reflect the reality on the ground. David C. Kang is Professor of International Relations and Business at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. He is also Director of USC Korean Studies Institute and Director of the USC Center for International Studies. About the podcast: The “North Korea News Podcast” is a weekly podcast hosted exclusively by NK News, covering all things DPRK: from news to extended interviews with leading experts and analysts in the field and insight from our very own journalists. Featured image: The White House
Is East Asia balancing against a rising China? No way, says David Kang. Is China’s island-building a unique provocation? Not at all, says Kang. Does the world have anything to fear from a powerful China? Not really, and, indeed, a weak China is the greater threat to world order. Listen to the “unconventional perspective” of Professor David Kang in the latest episode of Jaw-Jaw. If you'd like to read a transcript click here. Biographies David C. Kang is Maria Crutcher Professor in International Relations, Business and East Asian Languages and Cultures at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. At USC, he is also director of the Korean Studies Institute. Kang’s latest book is American Grand Strategy and East Asian Security in the 21st Century (Cambridge University Press, 2017). He is also author of East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (Columbia University Press, 2010); China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia University Press, 2007); and Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (Cambridge University Press, 2002). Brad Carson is a professor at the University of Virginia, where he teaches in the Batten School of Leadership and Public Policy. He served in the U.S. House of Representatives from 2001-2005 and was Undersecretary of the Army and acting Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel & Readiness in the Obama Administration. He welcomes comments at bradrogerscarson@gmail.com. Links Brad Glosserman, Peak Japan: The End of Great Ambitions, (Georgetown University Press 2019) Michael Green, By More Than Providence: Grand Strategy and American Power in the Asia Pacific Since 1783, (Columbia University Press 2017) Victor Cha, Power Play: Origins of the American Alliance System in Asia, (Princeton University Press 2016) Music and Production by Tre Hester
Modern international relations are a direct result of a series of Treaties ratified in Westphalia during the 17th century. The “Westphalian Peace” enshrined the rights of states to claim sovereignty over their domestic affairs and territories -- and thus promoted the fundamental principle that all states, no matter how weak or powerful, are equal in international law. The advent of the West has made these Westphalian principles the global norm of international affairs; and Asia is no exception. What is often forgotten, however, is that Asia before the arrival of the Western powers was under a fundamentally different system -- in effect a hierarchical order in which China held the highest status. Thanks to its might and advanced Confucian culture China was at the center of a system where there could be no equality among nations; yet where emulation and cooperation were possible, trade thrived and, importantly, stability could be found. This is the argument of Professor David C. Kang, who kindly agreed to be our guest for this episode. Together, we look back into the ancient regional order of premodern Asia and explore whether the history of Asian international relations can inform us as to the present state of affairs in the region -- and maybe even help us make sense of China’s rise. David C. Kang is Professor of International Relations and Business at the University of Southern California, with appointments in both the School of International Relations and the Marshall School of Business. He is also director of the Korean Studies Institute and the East Asian Studies Center. Professor Kang’s latest book is East Asia Before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute (Columbia University Press, 2010). He is also author of China Rising: Peace, Power, and Order in East Asia (Columbia University Press, 2007); Crony Capitalism: Corruption and Development in South Korea and the Philippines (Cambridge University Press, 2002); and Nuclear North Korea: A Debate on Engagement Strategies (Columbia University Press, 2003), co-authored with Victor Cha. Professor Kang has published numerous articles in top academic journals, and his co-authored article Testing Balance of Power Theory in World History was awarded “Best article, 2007-2009” by the European Journal of International Relations. David Kang has also written opinion pieces in the New York Times, the Financial Times, the Washington Post, and the Los Angeles Times. He received an A.B. with honors from Stanford University and his Ph.D. from Berkeley.