Podcasts about Thucydides Trap

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Are we on the point of World War III - and what does Ancient Greece have to do with it?In this episode of English and Beyond: Advanced, we explore The Thucydides Trap - a theory from ancient history that's now being used to explain modern tensions between China and the United States.You'll learn:– Who Thucydides was and what he said about the Peloponnesian War– How Harvard professor Graham Allison revived this idea for the 21st century– Why some people believe war between China and the US is inevitable - and others say it's avoidable– Why fear, not ambition, might be the most dangerous force in international relations– And how studying Ancient Greece can help you understand today's world - and improve your English at the same time.This episode includes natural native English, cultural insight, and advanced vocabulary related to politics, diplomacy, and global conflict.

In this crossover episode from the China Talk podcast, Nathan Labenz shares a thought-provoking conversation between Jordan Schneider, Ilari Michaela, and Professor David C. Kang that challenges conventional Western perspectives on East Asian international relations. Professor Kang argues that studying East Asian history on its own terms reveals a remarkably stable geopolitical system spanning nearly a millennium, where China maintained regional dominance without conquest through compatible cultures and mutual understanding. This alternative framework offers valuable insights that question the seemingly inevitable US-China competition narrative dominating AI discourse, suggesting that internal challenges may be more significant than external threats for both China and the United States. SPONSORS: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI): Oracle Cloud Infrastructure offers next-generation cloud solutions that cut costs and boost performance. With OCI, you can run AI projects and applications faster and more securely for less. New U.S. customers can save 50% on compute, 70% on storage, and 80% on networking by switching to OCI before May 31, 2024. See if you qualify at https://oracle.com/cognitive Shopify: Shopify powers millions of businesses worldwide, handling 10% of U.S. e-commerce. With hundreds of templates, AI tools for product descriptions, and seamless marketing campaign creation, it's like having a design studio and marketing team in one. Start your $1/month trial today at https://shopify.com/cognitive NetSuite: Over 41,000 businesses trust NetSuite by Oracle, the #1 cloud ERP, to future-proof their operations. With a unified platform for accounting, financial management, inventory, and HR, NetSuite provides real-time insights and forecasting to help you make quick, informed decisions. Whether you're earning millions or hundreds of millions, NetSuite empowers you to tackle challenges and seize opportunities. Download the free CFO's guide to AI and machine learning at https://netsuite.com/cognitive PRODUCED BY: https://aipodcast.ing CHAPTERS: (00:00) About the Episode (03:30) Introduction to East Asian Relations (04:41) Internal vs External Challenges (07:05) Song Dynasty's Fall (13:35) Western vs Eastern Frontiers (19:06) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 1) (20:30) Sponsors: Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) | Shopify (23:45) Shared Cultural Understanding (Part 2) (25:57) Vietnam-China Relations (30:08) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 1) (32:19) Sponsors: NetSuite (33:52) Korea's Diplomatic Strategy (Part 2) (35:17) The Imjin War (43:36) Thucydides Trap Question (49:19) Power Transition Theory Debate (53:49) Expansion and Frontiers (01:02:00) Modern Implications (01:06:00) PRC and Imperial Legacy (01:13:16) Taiwan and Modern Challenges (01:25:42) US Role in East Asia (01:29:35) Concluding Thoughts (01:37:17) Outro

15 - ALMANAC - (Part 2) Outflanking the Thucydides Trap in the age of the Military Industrial Complex by Australian Citizens Party

14 - ALMANAC - (Part 1) Outflanking the Thucydides Trap in the age of the Military Industrial Complex by Australian Citizens Party

The Thucydides Trap is often presented as an iron law of history—an inevitable march toward war between a rising power (China) and an established hegemon (the U.S.). But what if this narrative is more of a self-fulfilling prophecy than a historical certainty? In this episode of The More Freedom Foundation Podcast, Rob and Ruairi take a critical look at the misuse of Thucydides' work, arguing that America resembles imperial Athens far more than it does Sparta. We break down why the "trap" is more of a political talking point than a sound historical analysis and why the real danger lies in how this flawed idea is shaping U.S. policy. Is war with China truly inevitable, or is this just another excuse for endless militarization? Tune in for a deep dive into history, politics, and the myths that drive global conflict.⁠⁠⁠Patreon⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Website⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Books⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Twitter⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠TikTok

In this episode of "Impact Theory with Tom Bilyeu," we dive headfirst into geopolitical tensions, international politics, and rising technologies set to reshape our world. Tom Bilyeu, the insightful and probing host, explores high-stakes discussions ranging from the growing friction between the United States and China to the explosive rhetoric from Donald Trump. As the episode unfolds, the duo candidly navigates through potential economic pitfalls and the preventable slide into Thucydides Trap, providing a critical examination into the historical significance that fuels today's global theatrics. Sitting alongside Tom is Producer Drew who brings a wealth of knowledge and clarity to the table, dissecting everything from China's cultural identity to the intricacies of the Taiwan conflict. Expect to leave this episode with a richer understanding of why these international dynamics matter and how they steer the course of our future. Prepare for an episode that offers more than insight—it frames a comprehensive perspective on the global chessboard. SHOWNOTES 00:00 Unintended Consequences of Trump's Tariffs 10:15 Tough Talk Over Diplomacy 12:12 "Leadership Styles: Zelensky vs. Trump" 20:09 Political Strategy and Perception Challenges 24:57 Interpreting Sharia: A Common Law Approach 31:29 Political Polarization and National Unity 33:27 Define Goals and Test Ideas 42:51 Robot Safety Concerns 45:49 Ray Dalio's AI Expertise 52:44 Elon's Vision: Anticipating Future Trends 01:00:01 Organizing Scattered Digital Interests 01:05:40 AI Video Editing Workflow 01:08:29 Clutter Clash in Our Marriage CHECK OUT OUR SPONSORS Range Rover: Range Rover: Explore the Range Rover Sport at https://rangerover.com/us/sport Audible: Sign up for a free 30 day trial at https://audible.com/IMPACTTHEORY  Vital Proteins: Get 20% off by going to https://www.vitalproteins.com and entering promo code IMPACT at check out Thive Market: ​​Go to https:thrivemarket.com/impact for 30% off your first order, plus a FREE $60 gift! ITU: Ready to breakthrough your biggest business bottleneck? Apply to work with me 1:1 - https://impacttheory.co/SCALE Kettle & Fire: Get 20% off your first order at https://kettleandfire.com/impact with code IMPACT  Netsuite: Download the CFO's Guide to AI and Machine Learning at https://NetSuite.com/THEORY Found: Try Found for FREE at https://found.com/impact ********************************************************************** Do you need my help? STARTING a business: Join me inside ZERO TO FOUNDER here SCALING a business: Click here to see if you qualify Get my battle-tested strategies and insights delivered weekly to your inbox: sign up here. ********************************************************************** If you're serious about leveling up your life, I urge you to check out my new podcast, Tom Bilyeu's Mindset Playbook —a goldmine of my most impactful episodes on mindset, business, and health. Trust me, your future self will thank you. ********************************************************************** Join me live on my Twitch stream. I'm live daily from 6:30 to 8:30 am PT at www.twitch.tv/tombilyeu ********************************************************************** LISTEN TO IMPACT THEORY AD FREE + BONUS EPISODES on APPLE PODCASTS: apple.co/impacttheory ********************************************************************** FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu/ Tik Tok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tombilyeu?lang=en Twitter: https://twitter.com/tombilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the Alfalfa Podcast

Episode Two: We begin our conversation with David about China and whether the "Thucydides Trap" can be avoided.

It's easy to conclude that we are a violent species. Just look at the state of the world.In a quite brilliant book, Professor Christopher Blattman argues that history books can give a misleading impression: on most days, war doesn't happen.Blattman has read everything. He has talked to the street gangs of Chicago and drug lords in Colombia. He summarises his vast knowledge with five main reasons why going to war - rathe than making peace - seems to happen. Armed (pardon the pun) with this knowledge, policy makers can get better at peace making.But, he warns, most policies are wrong, or likley to be. Grand, big theories of everything are best avoided. He urges a 'marginal' approach, perhaps best described as 'suck it and see'. Take baby steps and prepare to fail. But keep going. Small steps may mean you won't make big mistakes.It's hard to end wars but they always do. It's the terms that matter. It looks like Putin is going to win in Ukraine.Even more seriously, are China and America stuck in the same trap that drove ancient Sparta and Athens to war? That's the famous Thucydides Trap.A truly fabulous discussion. Our thanks to Shane. Become a member at https://plus.acast.com/s/the-other-hand-with-jim.power-and-chris.johns. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Thank you to The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School for supporting this episode. Visit the link below to learn more about research, ideas, and leadership programs for a more peaceful world: https://www.belfercenter.org/ -------------------- In the 5th century BC, the Greek historian Thucydides chronicled the Peloponnesian War (431–404 BC), a conflict between Athens, a rising power, and Sparta, the established ruling power. Thucydides famously concluded that "it was the rise of Athens and the fear it instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable." Today, 2,400 years later, we face a similar situation: will a rising China and an uneasy America follow the same path? Can these two nations avoid falling into the 'Thucydides Trap'? #Endgame #GitaWirjawan #GrahamAllison -------------------- About Luminary: Graham Allison, former Director of Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, is a bestselling author of "Destined for War: America, China, and Thucydides's Trap" (2017). As the founding dean of the Harvard Kennedy School, Dr. Allison served as Assistant Secretary of Defense and advised defense secretaries from Reagan to Obama. He has received the Department of Defense's Distinguished Public Service Medal twice and serves on advisory boards for the Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense. About the Host: Gita Wirjawan is an Indonesian entrepreneur, educator, and Honorary Professor of Politics and International Relations at the School of Politics and International Relations, University of Nottingham. He is also a visiting scholar at The Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) at Stanford University (2022—2024) and a fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. -------------------- Get Prof. Allison's Books at Periplus Bookstore: https://www.periplus.com/p/9781911617303/?utm_source=EG https://www.periplus.com/p/9780262539500/?utm_source=EG https://www.periplus.com/p/9780805078527/?utm_source=EG -------------------- Earn a Master of Public Policy degree and be Indonesia's future narrator. More info: admissions@sgpp.ac.id https://admissions.sgpp.ac.id https://wa.me/628111522504 Visit and subscribe:  @SGPPIndonesia   @Endgame_Clips 

This week on Sinica, in a show recorded on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's Annual Meeting of the New Champions, historian Adam Tooze joins to chat about what the U.S. wants from China, China's vaulting green energy ambitions, and much more. Don't miss this episode: Tooze gets pretty darn spicy!3:13 How Adam launched Chartbook in Chinese 5:37 How Dalian and Beijing have changed since Adam's last visit in 20199:01 What the West wants from China, the Thucydides Trap, 15:11 The trajectory of China's economic development and why it's hard for the West to reconcile with]25:11 “Overcapacity” and the politics of renewable energy31:00 Russo-Chinese relations and the war in Ukraine37:12 The Global South and China since February 24th and October 7th and the importance of Africa with regards to global development 41:39 Green energy as a driver of high-quality development in China 47:49 The “Red New Deal” and the combination punch metaphor 51:57 Adam's cognitive style (an interrelated thinker averse to analogizing), climate as a touchstone topic, and China's importance in global climate politics Recommendations:Adam: The work of Lauri Myllyvirta, including his analysis on Carbon BriefKaiser: Rewatching The Wire TV series (2002-2008)See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Tarifi tekrarlamakta fayda var.. Tabii boyut ekleyerek… ‘Tukidides Tuzağı', yükselmekte olan bir gücün egemen olan diğer bir gücü, onun yerine geçmekle tehdit etmesinden dolayı oluşan şiddetli yapısal gerilimdir. Son beş yüzyıl boyunca toplam on altı kez yükselmekte olan bir güç, egemen gücü yerinden etme durumunda kaldı. Bu on altı durumun on ikisinde savaş çıktı. Söz konusu Tukidides tuzağından iki risk doğmaktadır. Yükselmekte olan güç sendromu birdenbire yükselen gücün, artmakta olan öz- bilinci, çıkarlarını savunma güdüsü, saygı ve tanınma hakkını talep etmesi demektir. Egemen güç sendromu ise bunun yansıması olarak kendini kanıtlamış olan gücün, ‘çöküş' imaları karşısında duyduğu yükselen korku ve güvensizlik hissini tanımlamaktadır. Kısacası gitgide kendine fazla önem vermeye başlayan ülke, kendisine saygı duyulmasını ve yeni gücünün tanınmasını beklerken, aynı zamanda da çevresinde daha fazla etki sahibi olmak ister. Buna karşılık olarak da kendini kanıtlamış olan ülke yükselmekte olan ülkenin gösterdiği bu kendine aşırı güvenmeyi saygısız, nankör ve hatta kışkırtıcı ya da tehlikeli bir tavır olarak algılamaktadır”… (‘Tukidides Tuzağı ve Üçüncü Dünya Savaşı',12/05/17, M. Devres, Birikim, ve ‘Has a ‘Thucydides Trap' been set?', 03/06/24, G. Allison, SCMP.) ‘Boyut ekleme' dediğimiz de aslında ihmal edilen bir ayak. Üçüncü ülkelerin, daha doğrusu “güncellenmiş orta boy güçlerin” politikalarının böylesi durumda nasıl olacağı… İlginç örnek, Dışişleri Bakanı Sayın Hakan Fidan'ın Çin ziyareti oldu…

Artificial intelligence has the potential to revolutionize warfare and reshape geopolitics. Professor Andrew Wilson, professor of Strategy at the US Naval War College, explores the transformative power of military technology throughout history and its implications for the future. In this episode of Onward, host and Fundrise CEO Ben Miller and Professor Andrew Wilson explore how technological advancements not only transform warfare but also reshape political, social, and economic landscapes. Seemingly small technological advancements (especially those in the military realm) often have profound and lasting effects on societal structures and political dynamics. "Victory smiles up those who anticipate changes in the character of war, not upon those who wait to adapt themselves after the changes occur."  –Italian Air Power Theorist, General Giulio Douhet Ben and Professor Wilson illustrate this by examining historical breakthroughs such as the stirrup, which led to the rise of feudalism in medieval Europe, and the Greek trireme, which fostered Athenian democracy and economic expansion. The discussion also highlights society's transition from bronze to iron weaponry, which democratized military power by making effective weapons more accessible, thereby altering the balance of power in ancient civilizations. Moving to the present day, the conversation addresses the ongoing revolution in military technology, particularly focusing on AI and autonomous weapon systems. Professor Wilson and Ben discuss modern technologies' potential to either democratize or centralize military power, depending on their cost to manufacture. This episode also explores China's military modernization efforts, emphasizing the strategic focus and investment in emerging technologies. Professor Wilson underscores the importance of maintaining an innovative edge and strategic flexibility to navigate the complex relationship between the United States and China, while also stressing the need for clear communication to avoid the so-called Thucydides Trap, where rising powers and status quo powers are potentially destined for conflict. Have questions or feedback about this episode? Drop us a note at Onward@Fundrise.com.  Onward is hosted by Ben Miller, co-founder and CEO of Fundrise, and Cardiff Garcia, Editorial Director of the Economic Innovation Group and host of the economics-focused podcast The New Bazaar (after spending many years as the co-creator and co-host of NPR's The Indicator podcast). Podcast production by The Podcast Consultant. Music by Seaplane Armada.  About Fundrise  With over 2 million users, Fundrise is America's largest direct-to-investor alternative asset investment platform. Since 2012, our mission has been to build a better financial system by empowering the individual. We make it easier and more efficient than ever for anyone to invest in institutional-quality private alternative assets — all at the touch of a button.  Please see fundrise.com/oc for more information on all of the Fundrise-sponsored investment funds and products, including each fund's offering document(s).  Want to see the specific assets that make up and power Fundrise portfolios? Check out our active and past projects at www.fundrise.com/assets.

  In season 2, we kick-off with America's foremost foreign policy scholar, Dr. Joseph Nye, the former Assistant Secretary of Defense and former Dean of Harvard Kennedy School of Government, to talk about how the American Century has shaped our civilization and what lies ahead in the road.   Dr. Nye shares his profound insights on:   - His personal reflections from his latest released book   - The essence and impact of soft power, hard power and 'smart' power in shaping international relations, drawing from his extensive experience and academic work   - Analyzing the concept of the "American Century," its historical context, and its relevance in today's shifting global order   - Discussing the strategic challenges and opportunities presented by nuclear non-proliferation, with a focus on his contributions during the Carter administration   - Providing a forward-looking perspective on the rise of Asia, particularly China and India, and the implications for global economic and political dynamics   - Navigating through the complexities of U.S. foreign policy, from its triumphs to its missteps, and envisioning the path forward in an increasingly multipolar world   - His thoughts on contemporary wars: from Israel-Palestine to Ukraine-Russia   Accompanying Dr. Nye, we're privileged to have our very dear friend of the pod, Jon Cayzer who's a UK civil servant, adding depth to the conversation with his expertise and experience in public services and policy advising.   Join us as Dr. Joseph Nye artfully connects past influences with present challenges, offering a roadmap for understanding and navigating the future of international relations.   Follow our host Waheed Nabeel (@iwaheedo), for more updates on tech, civilizational growth, progress studies, and emerging markets.   Here are the timestamps for the episode. On some podcast players, you should be able to click the timestamp for the episode.     (00:00) - Introduction to Joseph Nye and his seminal contributions   (02:13) - Nye's background and defining moments in global politics   (07:04) - The American Century revisited: implications for global leadership   (12:50) - The evolution and significance of soft power in the modern era   (14:47) - Is the U.S.'s current foreign policy, particularly its support for Israel's actions in Gaza, leading to a decrease in its soft power, similar to the impact of the Iraq War?   (16:46) - Is the current perceived political polarization in the U.S. truly unprecedented, or is it a return to historical levels of division experienced in past eras like the FDR presidency?   (18:36) - Can the U.S. and China avoid the Thucydides Trap and prevent military conflict?   (23:56) - Should Ukraine join NATO?   (25:14) - Is China, despite its hard power, struggling to amplify its soft power on the global stage?   (28:05) - How can a small country effectively increase its soft power—is it through cultural promotion like the British Council and Confucius Institute, or are there other strategies?   (29:46) - In light of populism and Brexit, how can the UK rejuvenate its smart power and reestablish its international standing post-EU?   (32:16) - How do advancements in technology and AI affect a country's balance of soft and hard power?   (33:36) - Does the fragmentation of media through technologies like social media endanger the consensus-building essential to democracy in the 21st century?   (35:32) - How can America, known for its innovation, adapt its foundational principles and values for future generations to bridge to the next century, moving beyond the notion of American exceptionalism?   (37:35) - Discussing the shift in American values from 1998 to 2023, how has the perception of patriotism and other core values evolved over time?   (27:20) - Analyzing Asia's rise and its global ramifications   (33:35) - The interplay of technology, AI, and international relations   (36:50) - Envisioning the future of diplomacy and international cooperation   (39:07) - Outro  

Many books about US-China strategic competition have been published in recent years. This episode will focus on Facing China: The Prospect for War and Peace, which examines various flashpoints in the Indo-Pacific that could result in military conflict.There are several reasons why this book stands out: First, it includes an examination of debates within China about China's national interests; Second, it focuses not only on the challenges of major wars, but also on China's gray-zone strategy of deliberately pursuing its interests in ways that stay below the threshold that would trigger a US military response. And finally, it assesses the applicability of the Thucydides Trap to the US-China relationship. The Thucydides Trap concept was coined by Graham Allison who examined historical cases in which a rising power threatened to displace a ruling power in his book Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides's Trap? Allison concluded that in the majority of historical cases the outcome was war.This book is especially interesting because it is written by a European expert who has deep knowledge of Taiwan, mainland China, and the United States: Jean-Pierre Cabestan. He is an emeritus senior researcher at the French Center for Scientific Research in Paris and an emeritus professor political science at the Department of Government and International Studies at Hone Kong Baptist University, and a visiting senior fellow at GMF.  Timestamps[02:07] Revisiting the Thucydides Trap [03:53] Why was China fascinated by this concept? [05:26] Reasons for the Risk of War Increasing[06:33] The US-China Cold War and its Characteristics[09:03] China's Gray-Zone Activities [10:53] Where has China's gray-zone strategy been the most successful? [12:37] Unifying Taiwan with China through Gray-Zone Activities[14:42] Chinese Use of Force in the Taiwan Strait in the 2020s[16:17] China's Ambitions in the International Arena[17:40] Future Overseas Operations of the PLA  

After the three-year-long COVID 19 pandemic, the arrival of 2023 instilled great hope for rebuilding a world grounded in development, peace, and prosperity. However, 2023 has brought to light the challenges and risks embedded in the global landscape. In the face of this evolving reality, how can we navigate through this turbulent world?

Xi Jinping of China and Bashar al-Assad of Syria recently announced a new strategic partnership as U.S. adversaries band together economically and militarily. This episode explores the implications of this alliance, the history of U.S. involvement in Syria, and the shifting global order as American power declines. We discuss the blowback from financial sanctions on Russia, increasing BRICS cooperation, and compare the current geopolitical situation to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta. With insight from experts, maps and historical context, this podcast analyzes potential future conflicts and the need for diplomacy in our multipolar world.   Podcast Script:  Introduction:  Hello everyone. Recently, the leaders of China and Syria announced a new strategic partnership as adversaries of the United States seek to align economically and militarily. Today we'll explore why this alliance matters, provide background on U.S. involvement in Syria, and discuss the shifting global order as American power declines relative to rival states.  Syria-China Partnership: Last week, Xi Jinping and Bashar al-Assad announced a landmark strategic partnership between China and Syria. This comes as Russia, China, Iran, Venezuela and other nations sanctioned by the U.S. increasingly cooperate. Though the U.S. and Western democracies have made poor strategic decisions, these countries now see banding together as key to resisting American military domination.  U.S. in Syria:  The U.S. invaded Syria in 2014 under the Obama administration, with the aim of removing Assad. Since then, the U.S. has maintained a military presence in northeast Syria near major oil fields. Though Trump said he wanted to withdraw, he admitted it was about "keeping the oil." The U.S. essentially controls Kurdish oil production, while adversaries like Russia and Iran are partnering with Syria's central government.  Global Order Shifting: U.S. financial sanctions on Russia have caused significant blowback, with sanctioned nations looking to trade outside the Western system. BRICS countries have focused on inter-trade and explored creating a joint currency. We're seeing the emergence of a multi-polar world, as the U.S. stands increasingly alone. When the U.N. refused to approve invading Iraq, the U.S. went ahead anyway, damaging international trust. Historical Parallels: This situation has parallels to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, where rising Athenian power caused Sparta to fear it would displace them as regional hegemon. Graham Allison applies this "Thucydides Trap" framework to current U.S.-China tensions. Though war often seems inevitable in these scenarios, diplomacy and frank dialogue remains key to avoiding catastrophic outcomes.   Conclusion:  The emerging Syria-China alliance demonstrates Russia, China and other nations banding together economically and militarily in a multi-polar world. As American power declines, the blowback from imposing financial sanctions and attempting to control oil access shows the limits of military force. Avoiding war will require nuanced diplomacy and negotiations between all players on the global stage.

Have you ever heard of BRICS? It's a group of five countries — Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa — and now all five of them are coming together to bring down America. Charlie explains why BRICS's plan is so dangerous to U.S. prosperity, and why their effort is attracting so much support from across the globe. Plus, Charlie explores how the left-aligned media are laying the groundwork to cancel the 2024 election.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

#China #War #ASEAN Loh Wei Hoong - China: an Autocratic Warmonger or ASEAN's Biggest Opportunity?  China is the biggest enigma of our time. For us in ASEAN, she is either our biggest threat or our greatest opportunity. Or can China be both?  The more viewpoints we have, the more data points we can obtain to triangulate our opinions to form an educated guess. Loh Wei Hoong, a longtime educator, investor and entrepreneur in China and Vistage chair, shares his point of view with Khoo Hsu Chuang. (Many thanks to the Asia School of Business for their collaboration with The Do More Podcast, in whose studio this conversation was recorded. The Asia School of Business is a partnership between MIT Sloan School of Management and Bank Negara Malaysia). CONTENTS  00:02:34 - Who is Loh Wei Hoong?  00:06:47 - What Should People Know About China?  00:10:50 - Working Hard …  00:17:39 - China's Flaws ..  00:19:28 - What About Hong Kong?  00:26:36 - The Thucydides Trap   00:27:52 - And the Kashmir Region?  00:29:16 - Will China Declare War on Taiwan?  00:31:41 - US-China War: Who Wins? How Do We Prepare? 00:35:06 - War Is Inevitable  00:37:18 - Why America Wants to Fight with China  00:40:46 - Does America Rescue Taiwan?  00:44:48 - Is America $trong Enough to Fight China?  00:46:39 - How Malaysia Positions Itself  00:49:55 - Does China Leave Malaysia Alone?  00:52:10 - The Nine-Dash Line 0:53:50 - China's Covid Policy  01:04:29 - The Global Population Dilemma  01:05:54 - Preparing for the Schoolyard Battle  01:09:50 - Does Malaysia Have the Right Leadership? 01:12:36 - Nusantara … -- Follow Wei Hoong here: At Vistage: https://vistage.com.my/loh-wei-hoong-chair-profile/ On SafetyWare Board: https://safetyware.com/board-of-directors/ -- Follow Chuang here: URL: http://www.domore.my/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/hsu-chuang-khoo-ab199343 FB: https://www.facebook.com/khoo.chuang/ IG: https://www.instagram.com/khoohsuchuang/ --- Follow DoMore here: WEBSITE: https://www.domore.my/ YOUTUBE: https://www.youtube.com/c/DoMoreTakeChargeofYourLife ITUNES: https://apple.co/2lQ47mS GOOGLE PLAY: https://bit.ly/3b1l8iO SPOTIFY: https://tinyurl.com/y6zufvcp PODBEAN: https://domoreasia.podbean.com/ INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/domore.asia/    

This past week, the G7 - the group of the world's richest democracies - gathered in Japan to discuss Ukraine, Russia, global affairs, and their increasing concerns about a rising power looking out at them from over the water: China. This was some of the sternest wording from the G7, and China dismissed it as a smear. But the West also doesn't want to completely antagonise and cut off China, with the Australian Prime Minister saying lessons had to be learnt from history. So, are we entering a new Cold War, where conflict is avoided but tensions remain? Or are we not far off from a catastrophic war? On today's episode, I speak to Graham Allison, a former member of Bill Clinton's defence department and one of the preeminent national security voices in America. He speaks to me about his historical theory called Thucydides Trap, where throughout the past a rising power has often come to blows with an established one. Will China and America go the same way? Producer: Freya Pickford Sources: AP

Ron Unz is a theoretical physicist by training and serves as founder and chairman of UNZ.org, a content-archiving website providing free access to many hundreds of thousands of articles from prominent periodicals of the last hundred and fifty years. On the podcast we discuss his article “Did the Neocons Save the World from the Thucydides Trap?” We also discuss the role United States government might have played in covid, the collapse of the dollar, and much more. PLEASE SUBSCRIBE LIKE AND SHARE THIS PODCAST!!!   Follow Ron Website- https://www.unz.com/author/ron-unz/ Twitter- https://twitter.com/UnzReview   Follow Me Twitter- https://twitter.com/CoffeeandaMike Instagram- https://www.instagram.com/coffeeandamike/ Facebook- https://www.facebook.com/CoffeeandaMike/ Truth Social- https://truthsocial.com/@coffeeandamike Gettr- https://gettr.com/user/coffeeandamike   Support My Work Venmo- https://venmo.com/code?user_id=3570365208987017385&created=1658667789.4661531&printed=1 Website- www.coffeeandamike.com Email- info@coffeeandamike.com  

Breekt er oorlog uit tussen #Amerika en #China? Waarom staan China en de #VS zo vijandig tegenover elkaar? Welk land is nu eigenlijk sterker? Welk land zal de geopolitieke strijd winnen?In deze podcast gaan wij in op de absolute Super League van de geopolitiek: wij vergelijken China en Amerika op basis van vijf dimensies. Vanuit economische, militaire, netwerk, culturele en netwerk dimensie analyseren wij deze grootmachten.Beluister onze podcast, abonneer je en neem afscheid van je ongeïnformeerde zelf. Laat een review achter!Op het programma staan:Welkomstwoord (00:00)Economische front van de strijd (03:58)Demografische val van China (08:58)Militaire macht van de Verenigde Staten tegen China (13:12)Macht van de Amerikaanse wapenindustrie (20:08)Wie heeft het sterkste netwerk (28:00)De wereldwijde Amerikaanse cultuur (37:27)Energie en zeldzame metalen als geopolitieke wapen (45:06)

01:00 Gen Z hookup culture, https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/gen-z-my-adventure-with-generation-threesome-and-its-favourite-dating-app-fl7pzrhlg 07:00 India thrashes Australia in day one of test cricket series 10:00 That Chinese balloon analyzed by Hoover Institution: https://www.youtube.com/@HooverInstitution 44:00 Thucydides Trap, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thucydides_Trap 1:08:00 Redirect: The Surprising New Science of Psychological Change, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=147010 1:18:30 Anti-Tradition & Authority: A Survey of Ponderables, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIoVYFPyCKs 1:24:00 WSJ: A Hero of Midway Finally Got His Due, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-hero-of-midway-finally-got-his-due-world-war-ii-japan-code-breakers-joseph-rochefort-pacific-radio-traffic-bait-11675959644?mod=opinion_lead_pos10 1:28:00 New York: The boom — or glut — in streaming documentaries has sparked a reckoning among filmmakers and their subjects, https://www.vulture.com/article/tv-documentaries-ethical-standards.html https://anncoulter.substack.com/p/heather-mac-donald-on-the-tyre-nichols?autoPlay=true https://twitter.com/RichardBSpencer/status/1618333050441728001 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/28/us/beverly-hills-shooting-california.html Is N.Y.'s Child Welfare System Racist? https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/22/nyregion/nyc-acs-racism-abuse-neglect.html https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-12-16/as-tom-girardi-skated-the-state-bar-went-after-black-attorneys https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2023/01/nick-fuentes/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/a-well-worn-argument-about-race-intelligence-and-violence/2021/06/23/936d815a-c7be-11eb-81b1-34796c7393af_story.html https://www.latimes.com/lifestyle/image/story/2021-10-13/mens-skirts-gender-fluid-fashion-trend-worth-trying https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/story/2022-11-04/viktor-manoel-and-lorena-valenzuela-la-vanguardia https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/awards/story/2023-01-25/oscars-nominations-2023-academy-awards-season-black-women-commentary https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2023-01-26/keep-dancing-and-other-advice-on-how-to-rebuild-after-tragedy How New York's mayor started mentoring a con man Why did Eric Adams take a fraudster Brooklyn church leader under his wing? Read in The New Yorker: https://apple.news/ALxR5X4gnTVurbICI0ICqsw Blonde privilege, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/19/opinion/the-enduring-invisible-power-of-blond.html Evaluating the news, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=146911, https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=140236 Join this channel to get access to perks: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCSFVD7Xfhn7sJY8LAIQmH8Q/join https://odysee.com/@LukeFordLive, https://lbry.tv/@LukeFord, https://rumble.com/lukeford https://dlive.tv/lukefordlivestreams Listener Call In #: 1-310-997-4596 Superchat: https://entropystream.live/app/lukefordlive Bitchute: https://www.bitchute.com/channel/lukeford/ Soundcloud MP3s: https://soundcloud.com/luke-ford-666431593 Code of Conduct: https://lukeford.net/blog/?p=125692 https://www.patreon.com/lukeford http://lukeford.net Email me: lukeisback@gmail.com or DM me on Twitter.com/lukeford Support the show | https://www.streamlabs.com/lukeford, https://patreon.com/lukeford, https://PayPal.Me/lukeisback Facebook: http://facebook.com/lukecford Feel free to clip my videos. It's nice when you link back to the original.

The World Balance of Power emerging in the 2020s is dividing into two blocs : the Authoritarians (China and Russia) and the Democratic West (US, EU, Nato, UK, Japan, Australia). China's increasing economic clout is prompting it to challenge the existing international order starting with the global reserve currency the US Dollar. At the same time, Xi Jin Ping's 7 No's represent a repudiation of fundamental Western values. Are we facing a Super Power Struggle and a new Cold War ? The Thucydides Trap. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/james-herlihy/message

This essay was published by firstpost.com at https://stg.firstpost.com/opinion-news-expert-views-news-analysis-firstpost-viewpoint/shadow-warrior-the-us-midterm-elections-and-implications-especially-for-india-11146761.htmlThis is being written on the eve of the US midterm elections, and so far as can be gathered from voluminous punditry, it appears the Democrats are going to take a direct hit. Normally the ruling party loses seats in the midterms, but this time the loss could actually turn into a rout, especially because of inflation and high interest rates.If the opinion polls are correct, and there is no hanky-panky at the voting-booth, chances are that the Republicans will gain control over one or both of the upper and the lower house: the Senate and the House of Representatives. This means that Joe Biden will be a lame duck, and his far-left, ‘woke' agenda will be stymied by continuous obstruction by the Republicans.US election issuesDemocrats are on the defensive on many issues that are top of mind for the US voter: * Inflation and the economy* Abortion and women's rights* Immigration and border control* Climate change* Law and order* The war in Ukraine* The Trump factor and the 2020 electionUndoubtedly there are other, local issues that concern voters, but on the national level this is what they will bring to the voting booth on November 8th. In general, there is a backlash to the extreme-left politics espoused by the ‘progressives' who appear to have hijacked the Democratic Party.Inflation is hurting people directly (at about 8%, a 40-year high, and very visible in the price of staples like food and petrol). Naturally, those in charge in times of trouble take the blame, whether it is deserved or not. As the Fed tightens, there will be job losses; there already are, in Big Tech, eg Twitter and Meta, including for other reasons. Small businesses are hurting, too. The abortion issue looked like a major galvanizing force a few weeks ago when the US Supreme Court overturned the legendary Roe v. Wade decision, but it has faded in importance except for the activist leftist faction within the Democratic party (the so-called ‘progressives').Relatively uncontrolled immigration through the porous southern border is an emotive issue in border states such as Texas. With riots in several cities, ‘defund the police', and general mayhem such as repeated school shootings, rampant gun violence, breakdowns in law and order may be an emotive issue. Climate change is less of a concern than it had been earlier, because it is increasingly clear that there will be pain to the general public in making a move to renewable energy. The Ukraine war, although it has some bipartisan support, is dragging on, and is correctly seen as a factor in increasing oil and gas prices, as well as food prices. Former President Trump is still a factor in the Republican party, and quite a few members of that party are convinced that the 2020 elections were flawed at best, and stolen at worst. Finally, one of the imponderables is the ‘swing vote': groups that may be persuaded based on specific issues. Swing votersIt appears that there are only two genuinely committed votebanks: one is the mostly white, young-ish, college-educated ‘liberal' Democratic cohort, that comprise the ‘progressives' of both the East Coast and California. The other is the rural, again mostly white, older, non-college-graduate ‘conservative' cohort, which has been dependably Republican for long.Black voters have been Democrat-leaning for years, and that will continue to be the case. Other groups, for example Latinos (Spanish speakers, or their descendants, often immigrants from Mexico, Central America, Cuba and so on), may well change their allegiance. Latinos were dedicated Democratic voters, but they have shown signs of defecting in droves because of the overly-socialist noises coming from the Democrats. Latinos who escaped from leftist ‘paradises' like Cuba and Venezuela have no illusions about the pleasures of socialism and communism.Similarly, Indian-Americans in America have been dependably Democratic-leaning. That party was seen as immigrant-friendly, minority-friendly, etc. but as Indians (as well as other Asian-Americans) see the appalling deterioration in their cities, they are beginning to sour on extreme-left Democrats. For instance, Asian-Americans spearheaded the recall of school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco. Unfortunately, those Indian-American legislators (you know who they are) who are most woke and most anti-India are unlikely to be dislodged as their constituencies are leftist strongholds.Put all these factors together, and unless there is widespread voting fraud (the US equivalent of booth-capturing), it is hard to see how the Democrats are going to avoid a disaster. A lame-duck President Biden has consequences for the rest of the world, too.Global implications from a lame-duck US PresidencyWhat are the implications? On the one hand, a number of the problems facing the world at the moment can plausibly be traced back to the US, and to be fair, they were not all created by the Biden Administration. But Biden has certainly exacerbated things, leading to global pain.The four big problems are: 1. The coronavirus, 2. Inflation, 3. The Ukraine war, 4. Dependence on China. It seems increasingly likely, despite strenuous objections and attention-diverting tactics by the US medical establishment led by Anthony Fauci, that the Covid pandemic is the result of a lab-leak from the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where experiments in ‘gain-of-function' were being carried on, with American funding channeled through Peter Daszack's Ecohealth.Impact: Ideally, in a lame-duck Biden regime, the US comes clean on the whole virus conspiracy.The massive money-printing exercise and largesse (a few thousand dollars to every US taxpayer as stimulus payments) have led to too many dollars chasing too few goods, the textbook definition of inflation. This structural problem was exacerbated by supply-chain disruptions (read imports from China) due to the coronavirus and the Ukraine war. Impact: Instead of throwing good money after bad, as in the ill-considered and Orwellian Inflation Reduction Act, a chastened Biden regime might pursue more sensible fiscal policy.Speaking of the Ukraine war, neutral observers are hard pressed to see how it has helped anybody, other than the pals of the Deep State, for whom increased military spending means a windfall. Atlanticist Democrats with Eastern European ancestry have dragged the US into some obscure blood feud of theirs with the Russians. Starved of Russian energy supplies, Western Europe is likely to suffer a cold winter and find that its industry is severely damaged. Impact: With the prospect of a loss in the midterms, WaPo reports that the hitherto pugnacious Biden crowd is telling Zelensky to seek a negotiated end to this pointless war. That is a relief.Through a series of poor strategic decisions, the US has made itself almost fatally dependent on China as a supplier. While it is not impossible, a decoupling of supply chains (the China + 1 strategy) is difficult. Apple is the latest company warning that its production in China is taking a hit partly because of Foxconn's well-publicized troubles with pandemic lockdowns. Impact: This is the one Biden policy that makes sense: isolate China and deny it technology. Biden has been China-friendly but the U-turn will get bipartisan support. There are some other secondary implications: for instance, the Republicans may probe the Hunter Biden laptop and its damning contents. This could potentially lead to a Biden impeachment, which would then make Kamala Harris the US President. That would be an outcome with many implications, especially for comedians and talk show hosts. The impact on IndiaIndia is low on Joe Biden's priority list: he hasn't even bothered to confirm his ambassador to India, although that may be a blessing in disguise. Eric Garcetti, the designate, is a Los Angeles party hack who is being kicked upstairs after a disastrous showing in his home town as mayor. In the 21st century, under Democratic Presidents Clinton, Obama and Biden, it has been clear that America is not exactly India's friend. That was perhaps fortunate, given Henry Kissinger's dictum: “It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal”. Biden's most prominent action regarding India was the futile effort to bully India into joining the US-NATO camp regarding Ukraine. His officials have taken ‘revenge' in a number of petty ways, including the denial of visa appointments (when last checked, the waiting time for a visitor visa in Delhi was 880 days. Contrast this with just 2 days in Beijing).Then there was the announcement of $450 million worth of enhancements to their F-16 fleet to Pakistan, followed by the release of that country from the FATF gray list, as well as the approval of a billion-dollar IMF bailout package. A less woke, lame-duck US Administration may well be in India's interest. The more worried the US gets about China, the more value they see in the Quad, as the Trump Administration did. In that sense, continuing frictions between the US and China would be useful to India, as indeed also a full-fledged Thucydides Trap of all-but-war between them.Similarly, a less cocksure US Administration may want to bring the Ukraine war to an end with a face-saving exit for all concerned. Nuclear brinkmanship is not good for business in general, and if pushed, the Russians may in fact use tactical weapons, or worse. Nuclear war always seems like a bad idea, including with China over the latter's likely invasion of Taiwan. We don't know the unintended consequences.On the other hand, any commercial pressure that the US puts on China is good as far as India is concerned. Presumably the chip wars, wherein the US is apparently intent on putting the brakes on Chinese development and manufacture of leading-edge semiconductors, will continue or gain momentum. That is in the US interest, and incidentally in India's as well, as India tries to attract more investment into its own chip industry.On average, a lame-duck Biden Presidency is a reasonably good outcome for India. If 2024 brings back a Republican Presidency (not necessarily Donald Trump) that too may be a good thing. The decline of the woke ‘progressives' is good; however the hostility of the Deep State and the Military-Industrial Complex is not going to diminish until and unless India becomes a major economic and military power; which of course will happen by 2047. 1720 words, Nov 7, 2022 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

Originally Aired: August 3, 2017 We present you, our beloved Deep State nerds, with the face-off you've been anticipating all summer. Our expert team breaks down rising powers, ruling powers, and the forces that drive war. Graham Allison and Kori Schake debate The Thucydides Trap, Rosa Brooks and David Rothkopf help us make sense of the similarities between ancient and modern history, all while convincing us to read The History of the Peloponnesian War. Come for the cage match and stay until the very end for some chilling insights into North Korea. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Originally Aired: August 3, 2017 We present you, our beloved Deep State nerds, with the face-off you've been anticipating all summer. Our expert team breaks down rising powers, ruling powers, and the forces that drive war. Graham Allison and Kori Schake debate The Thucydides Trap, Rosa Brooks and David Rothkopf help us make sense of the similarities between ancient and modern history, all while convincing us to read The History of the Peloponnesian War. Come for the cage match and stay until the very end for some chilling insights into North Korea. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Roy Davies with the latest Swamp News

Thucydides Trap sprung. Conflict and regime change operations incoming The Duran: Episode 1384

Hal Brands, Henry Kissinger Distinguished Professor at Johns Hopkins University, and Michael Beckley, associate professor of political science at Tufts University, join the show to talk about how an armed confrontation with China could be coming more quickly than most expect.  ▪️ Times  • 01:30 Introduction • 02:28 Danger Zone  • 05:13 A Matter Of Timing • 07:55 A Thucydides Trap? • 13:07 Historical Analogies and 1914 • 20:32 Getting To The Long Game • 25:37 Sleepwalking Into War? • 31:10 China's Problems And Plans • 35:06 The “Lenin Trap” • 36:44 Why Does Taiwan Matter?     • 40:27 Commitments And Capabilities  • 44:37 What Will War Look Like?     • 48:24 Cold War Lessons  • 52:22 Getting Through The Danger Zone 

In this episode, Alex discusses a new study out of Sweden that finds that rainwater is also toxic to drink due to CFAS which have basically infiltrated everything from groundwater to the atmosphere. The study found that even Antarctica had excessive levels. Next, Alex discusses how the GOP has clearly given up on backing the blue. According to CNN, “an armed man suspected of trying to breach the FBI's Cincinnati field office Thursday was killed after an hours-long standoff with law enforcement.” The man's social media posts made it clear this was in retaliation to the FBI's investigation at Mar-a-Lago. This was inevitable after the right-wing media and GOP leaders called out the FBI and voiced dangerous conspiracies. Finally, Alex discusses how European officials are constantly concerned about the end of U.S. influence and what it would do to the EU and its security. The United States is leading the efforts to help Ukraine and is still an economic powerhouse, but due to internal chaos, many fear it has reached its pride before the fall. Alex also discusses how Sino experts believe that China has peaked and also could be starting to plateau. This is also troubling because history shows that peaking countries can lash out and be even more dangerous than declining powers. China and the United States both have fundamentally opposite views of how the world order should be governed. Could this cause some sort of conflict? Especially if both are no longer growing? 

US-based Post journalist Owen Churchill goes beyond the "playing with fire" headlines to analyse what was discussed – and what was not – in the 2.5-hour phone call between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, as well as the domestic pressures from Nancy Pelosi's potential visit to Taiwan. Post diplomacy expert Shi Jiangtao looks at political scientist Graham Allison's theory of the 'Thucydides Trap', its forecast of war between the US and China and its relevance to the current state of Sino-US relations.

A version of this essay was published by Swarajya magazine at https://swarajyamag.com/world/the-quad-will-china-dominate-the-indo-pacific-as-the-us-reverts-to-atlanticism-what-can-india-doA lot has happened in the last week or two: POTUS Biden’s visit to Japan for a Quad summit and related economic moves; China’s outreach to Pacific Islanders for security pacts; and the World Economic Forum pow-wow in Davos. In some sense, the Ukraine war and related disruptions have taken a back seat, even though related inflation and shortages are a long-term story. In my opinion, the Biden Administration is pursuing self-defeating policies as far as the Indo-Pacific is concerned. On the one hand, it may be because (as is the norm in India) one political party wants to undo whatever their rival had done when they were in power. On the other hand, there is a curious lack of historical memory about great-power games: the US seems to be either blase about, or reconciled to, Chinese domination of Asia/the Indo-Pacific. None of this is good as far as India is concerned. In a harsh analysis of India’s clashes on the Kashmir/Tibet border with China, two anonymous but trenchant critics suggest India has been defeated already: “China-India Border Crisis Has Quietly Resulted in Victory For Beijing’, based on the fact that the Chinese military buildup is well-nigh impossible for India to overcome.Thanks for reading Shadow Warrior! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Meanwhile, there is increasing criticism of American involvement in – indeed responsibility for – prolonging the Ukraine war, surprisingly from the pro-Democrat, pro-war pages of the New York Times: “The War in Ukraine May Be Impossible to Stop. And the US Deserves Most of the Blame.” A slightly dated (April 1) article on “The Military Situation in Ukraine” had already given a cogent explanation of how reality on the ground was vastly different from the narrative.What I fear is that Ukraine will become a quagmire for not only Russia, but also the US. As the NYT op-ed said, it’s not much of a leap from a proxy war to a secret war. The US is rather good at getting into unfortunate messes like this, and then having to declare victory and run like hell: see Vietnam or Afghanistan. Two brutal articles from Tablet magazine, “Three Big Questions That the American Establishment Got Wrong” and “Wingnuts vs. Factions: The two theories of American government—one fantasy, one reality” purport to show how making bad, often really bad, decisions is par for the course for US administrations, in particular Democrats. All this presages the possibility that Ukraine will be a tar baby for the US and its NATO allies, and a drain on their national treasuries. It also means that their national attention will be riveted on Russia and Ukraine for the foreseeable future, leaving China free to run rampant in Asia. Democratic Party power brokers are anyway Atlanticists fighting the Cold War all over again. Let us, therefore, consider the Indo-Pacific from a perspective where the US is increasingly hors de combat. There is this theory of the “three island chains” in the Pacific as first propounded by American John Foster Dulles, according to CSIS.org, which further states that today we have to add two more island chains in the Indian Ocean. John Foster Dulles is attributed with designating the islands stretching from the Kurils, the Japanese home islands, and the Ryukyus to Taiwan, the Philippines, and Indonesia as the “first island chain” in the 1950s. The second chain stretches from Japan through the Marianas and Micronesia, and the third is centered on Hawaii...The addition of a fourth and fifth chain in the Indian Ocean would better describe emerging Chinese maritime strategy. Chinese naval planners hope to deny adversaries the ability to operate within the first island chain during a conflict, contest control of the second island chain, and operate as a blue water navy within the third island chain. A new fourth island chain through the middle of the Indian Ocean would reflect China’s ability to challenge its geostrategic neighbor India with dual-use facilities in Gwadar, Pakistan, and Hambantota, Sri Lanka. A fifth island Chain, originating from China’s base at Doraleh, Djibouti, would reflect Beijing’s ability to pursue its developing commitments afar, such as harnessing economic resources, conducting anti-piracy operations, and protecting Chinese living abroad. [emphasis added]This is alarming, as the ‘fourth island chain’ is basically the ‘String of Pearls’ intended to strangle India and tie it down in the so-called ‘South Asia’, by negating its undoubted geographic advantage of straddling the sea lanes in the Indian Ocean. The Chinese submarine pen at Hainan in the South China Sea, with easy access to the Indian Ocean via the Straits of Malacca, is already a threat to Indian interests and blue-water navy aspirations. In addition, China is currently in the middle of a furious ship-building frenzy, so they will also have surface ships, including aircraft carriers, capable of projecting force a long way into the Indian Ocean. Just as they have done in the Himalayas, and the South China Sea, China is using ‘below-the-threshold of war’ tactics to build up its capability until one day its foes are forced to submit. Degringolade.POTUS Biden has made it clear that his administration has very little interest in Asia. He made three trips to Europe before his very first trip to Asia: a quick visit to Japan (and South Korea), where he attended a meeting of the Quad and a coming-out party for the newest American-mooted economic proposal, the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework. This seems to be too little, too late, after the US exited the Trans-Pacific Partnership.The IPEF also seems like a face-saving measure, and it is increasingly evident that Biden’s alleged new enthusiasm for Asia is as empty as earlier POTUS Obama’s botched ‘pivot to Asia’, which was a lot of hot air with no substance. I also remember with fury Obama’s granting of hegemony over ‘South Asia’ to China: like the Pope once divided the world between Portugal and Spain. As though Obama were dispensing papal bulls. As Indian geostrategist Brahma Chellaney suggests on Nikkei Asia in “Biden’s empty Taiwan rhetoric reveals Quad’s core weakness”, Biden’s statement about US military support for Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion may be mere bravado. There are two reasons. The first is that, as Biden’s minions clarified after his alleged gaffe, US military involvement is not within the scope of US agreements with Taiwan and/or China, which maintain the fiction of “One China”. The second is that, given its diminished industrial capacity (China has hollowed it out), the US cannot fight two major wars at once: Ukraine and Taiwan. To emphasize their disdain for the alleged ‘pivot’, the Chinese sent strategic nuclear bombers towards Japan while Biden was there, accompanied by Russian bombers. As I write this, China has just sent 30 warplanes into Taiwan’s air defense zone. The signals are clear: they threaten to invade Taiwan. Thank you for reading Shadow Warrior. This post is public so feel free to share it.In the meantime, China is attempting to expand its footprint in the Indo-Pacific. It scored a coup with the Solomon Islands where it signed a wide-ranging agreement. According to a podcast from The Economist, a leaked draft shows that the agreement allows Chinese police and soldiers to be deployed in the Solomons for a broad range of reasons. It stops short of setting up a military base, but only just.Beyond this, Chinese FM Wang Yi had a blitzkrieg in the Pacific, visiting 8 island nations over 10 days, and on May 30th, he signed agreements in Fiji with a consortium of 10 of them. A draft talked about trade, tourism, security, training of police, forensic labs, and cyber-security, according to The Economist podcast Base Motives? China in the Pacific.The entire Belt and Road Initiative was a covert effort to gain access to ports, and turn them into Chinese military bases (although it has stalled a little now because of its predatory debt-trap diplomacy side-effects, as best seen in Sri Lanka). Beyond Djibouti in 2017, Gwadar and Hambantota, there are others like Cambodia’s Ream military base where China has facilities.China is also quite likely causing the sharp spike in global food prices. Economist Shamika Ravi tweeted as follows, and this is a good reason why India did a U-turn on wheat exports: instead of enabling Chinese proxies to buy it up, India will only do government to government deals. Thus the picture is of a diffident America shuffling off into Atlanticist and Anglosphere dead-ends like AUKUS (Britain brings almost nothing to the picture in the Indo-Pacific), while a more confident China is expanding its reach. Its saber rattling threatens Taiwan immediately, and India, Japan and South Korea more indirectly. The context of the Quad is also a far cry from what Abe Shinzo first envisaged as a tight military and economic alliance. It is pretty much a mere talking-shop. For instance, it is clear that none of Australia, Japan, or the US will send a single soldier to fight China on India’s behalf on the Kashmir/Tibet border. The creation of AUKUS (there are rumors about JAUKUS with Japan and CAUKUS with Canada as well) basically means India is being left out in the cold. Again. It has to depend on itself. Atmnirbharata. There is talk of a Quad-Plus, including South Korea and New Zealand. But not Vietnam and Indonesia, which are more significant? New Zealand, especially under woke Jacinda Ardern, is marginal; in fact Australia is also of little interest in the Indian Ocean. There is also political instability in Australia: Scott Morrison was replaced by Anthony Albanese overnight.I can remember at least five-six Australian PMs in the recent past, including die-hard Sinophile Kevin Rudd. How can you have continuity in such a situation? How can anybody depend on Australia to deliver on Quad? Similarly, Japanese PM Kishida Fumio is a far cry from the sensibly militaristic and nationalist Abe Shinzo. In the US, the switch from Donald Trump to Joe Biden has meant chaos regarding the Indo-Pacific. And after this November’s elections, it is likely that Biden will be a lame duck: his approval numbers keep hitting new lows, and hostile Republicans are likely to take over the Senate, leading to a war of attrition: bad news for foreign policy.In the middle of all this political turmoil, it is hard to imagine that the Quad is going to get better.Meanwhile, the developed nations of the West are merrily carrying on with their old agenda as in the Davos shindig, as though there is no end in sight for the party. Rana Foroohar of the Financial Times sounded a warning, as if one were necessary in the wake of the carnage of stock market crashes and soaring inflation. But no, laissez les bon temps rouler! Let the good times roll!And that’s exactly what India is up against. The rest of the world (with the possible exception of Japan) does not care. India has to assume it can only depend on itself, Quad or no Quad. It has to build up its military and economic muscle, and industrialize while keeping a low profile. The Thucydides Trap is a likely scenario, and presumably it will exhaust both the protagonists, leaving the door open for India to ascend to the G3 and then to the G1.1850 words, June 1, 2022 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

Join John and Olly to hear them discuss the continuing war in Ukraine, explain what it means for the world, nuclear weapons. There is also some commentary on the current political climate. 

China is an interesting place, to say the least. In less than half a century the country was transformed from mostly farmland into the largest factory on earth. This was not an accident. When David Rockefeller, Henry Kissinger, and Richard Nixon set out to normalize relations with China, they had a much darker plan in place to outsource the manufacturing of the United States to this developing nation while gutting America's heartland. What is the role of the United States and China in the future? What is the Thucydides Trap and why is it important? How does Africa play into this expansion, and what does it mean for the United States? Sponsors: Emergency Preparedness Food: www.preparewithmacroaggressions.com Chemical Free Body: https://www.chemicalfreebody.com and use promo code: MACRO C60 Purple Power: https://c60purplepower.com/ Promo Code: MACRO Wise Wolf Gold & Silver: www.Macroaggressions.gold True Hemp Science: https://truehempscience.com/ Haelan: https://haelan951.com/pages/macro Coin Bit App: https://coinbitsapp.com/?ref=0SPP0gjuI68PjGU89wUv Macroaggressions Merch Store: https://www.teepublic.com/stores/macroaggressions?ref_id=22530 LinkTree: linktr.ee/macroaggressions Books: HYPOCRAZY: https://amzn.to/3AFhfg2 Controlled Demolition on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08M21XKJ5 Purchase "The Octopus Of Global Control" Amazon: https://amzn.to/3aEFFcr Barnes & Noble: https://bit.ly/39vdKeQ Online Connection: Link Tree: https://linktr.ee/Macroaggressions Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/macroaggressions_podcast/ Discord Link:  https://discord.gg/4mGzmcFexg Website: www.theoctopusofglobalcontrol.com Facebook: www.facebook.com/theoctopusofglobalcontrol Twitter: www.twitter.com/macroaggressio3 Twitter Handle: @macroaggressio3 YouTube: www.youtube.com/channel/UCn3GlVLKZtTkhLJkiuG7a-Q Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2LjTwu5 Email For Helium Miner: Email: theoctopusofglobalcontrol@protonmail.com

Over the past 20 years, the world has been dominated by the production and distribution of goods and deliverables from what was understood traditionally as Communist China. But is China still operating in a classically Marxist/communistic economic system or has China been transitioned into a vengeance-seeking fascistic model reminiscent of the Third Reich's National Socialism of 1930's Germany or Mussolini's fascist Italy? China has been transformed into a corporatist, fascist, totalitarian state over the past 50 years - becoming the economic and military superpower that, supposedly, America must become in order to defeat. But more than that, China is now asserting itself on the world stage with an insistence that Xi Jinping must be at the wheel of a new, global, big ship. China has transitioned from a formerly Marxist-Gramscian modeled nation into a fascist superpower whose rise to dominance is based on past grievances and a global pursuit of “social justice” for perceived wrongs done by the west to China. Concepts such as Thucydides Trap have been used to prevent defensive measures by the United States to slow or stop the building of a totalitarian, neo-colonial, fascist superpower whose name, in Chinese, is vengeance. https://sovereignnations.com Support Sovereign Nations: https://paypal.me/sovnations https://patreon.com/sovnations Follow Sovereign Nations: https://sovereignnations.com/subscribe https://facebook.com/SovereignNations https://twitter.com/SovNations https://youtube.com/SovereignNations https://rumble.com/c/sovnations https://instagram.com/sovnations/ https://minds.com/sovnations?referrer=sovnations https://parler.com/profile/sovnations Podcast: https://soundcloud.com/sovereignnations https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-causes-of-things/id1383339158?mt=2 https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cDovL2ZlZWRzLnNvdW5kY2xvdWQuY29tL3VzZXJzL3NvdW5kY2xvdWQ6dXNlcnM6NDQ1NTczODAwL3NvdW5kcy5yc3M https://open.spotify.com/show/3mNCQcQAdawzIYAAuHfy8r https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/sovereign-nations/the-causes-of-things © 2022 Sovereign Nations. All rights reserved.

A version of this essay was published by firstpost at https://www.firstpost.com/india/are-things-looking-up-for-india-at-makar-sankranti-a-time-for-new-beginnings-10286661.html It is true that the usual suspects and the usual problems remain: malign forces including moles and sleeper cells inside the country; a stepped-up assault on India and Hindus from the Deep State and other ill-wishers; an almost-war on the Tibet border; the creaking bureaucracy and especially the judiciary; and the single-minded hostility towards the Government of India projected by US Big Media and Big Tech.In the midst of all this, let us consider a few things that make it look like India is on the upswing, while sounding a few notes of caution.Thanks for reading Shadow Warrior! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work.Technology TrendsJust a short while ago, there were two big announcements: India hit 1.5 billion vaccinations; and India hit $100 billion in digital transactions in October and November. The first is an example of how, against the odds and in the face of determined opposition by vested interests, India has managed to vaccinate a significant number of its people who are eligible for them, almost entirely with Indian-manufactured or Indian-developed vaccines. It means the State has capacity to scale and that the private sector has the capacity to do process and product innovation. The second is an example of leapfrog: India now has more digital transactions than the next three or four countries combined, and this has happened where skeptics said there are no POS machines, no electricity, etc. The humble mobile phone has been a game-changer, and the public has taken to QR codes with gusto: they are ubiquitous. This is hopeful: it means India can use and improve on current tech models. Perhaps radical new technologies such as crypto currencies will take root in India. India has been a technology laggard in the last century or two. But there is no inherent reason for that to continue. India’s STEM people are very competent: for instance, see how they dealt with technology denials such as with the cryogenic rocket engine or the Cray supercomputer. If we can harness upcoming technologies we should be able to ride the next innovation tsunamis. In areas such as web 3.0 with their distributed nature, Indians may well create the platforms of the future.One example of the public acceptance of tech is the immense popularity of mobile phones. There are also the ingenious ways in which people have used them. For instance, there is the ‘missed call’ semaphore whereby you convey a specific message, such as “I have reached my destination”, without actually using up a call! A Harvard case study talks about how fishermen in Kerala increased their average profits by 12% by using their cell phones out at sea to talk to big buyers, cut out middlemen and take their catch to the optimal fishing port. The uptake of mobile internet has been phenomenal, and is growing at a rate that will soon rival China. Once Reliance Jio brought inexpensive bandwidth to the masses, usage took off with entertainment and education (in a famous case, a railway porter studied for the State administrative services on his phone with free WiFi at the station, and got through the exam). There is an open-ness in India to science and technology, quite possibly because Dharmic religions are not anti-science or anti-logic. One of the hopeful signs is the drive to set up a semiconductor fabrication facility in India. Since computers and cellphones and Internet of Things or IoT devices including connected cars will increasingly drive our future, it is imperative that we have the ability to manufacture the key component of all this, i.e. silicon chips. It is one of several seminal technologies we need to be present in: AI, blockchain, crypto currencies, quantum computing, CRISPR-Cas9 in biology. At the moment, we are far behind in all of them. This cannot continue, and we need to put in a crash program, like America’s Manhattan Project, to catch up. Thank you for reading Shadow Warrior. This post is public so feel free to share it.Indian economyIndia is the fifth largest economy in the world, having overtaken Britain in the recent past (which of course is a matter for some schadenfreude). India should overtake Germany and Japan in the next ten years. So India is a player. The GDP growth figures of 8 to 9% in 2021 need to be seen in the context of the huge contraction due to the wuhan virus last year, but the important fact is that it is believed that this level can continue for the next several years. Both the World Bank and the IMF have suggested India will once again be the fastest growing large economy in the world. I am more optimistic about the 2023-2024 outlook than this: This is not coming on the back of massive increases in money supply, as in the US which appears to have printed money by the boatload, which is leading to inflation. Indian inflation, if you adjust for sky-high energy prices, is not all that bad. Incidentally, even with the prospect of higher interest rates in the US, the rupee is not falling: it hit a 3 month high of $1 = 73.9 Rupees on Jan 11th. This implies investors are pricing in India’s improved economic prospects. The reasons are quite basic: improved state finances and thus improved infrastructure investment, along with a young and growing working class which is beginning to be a consumption engine. Geo-politics and geo-economicsThings look a little tough in the near future both from the point of view of global politics and global economics. The Cold War between the US and China, despite President Biden’s conciliation or appeasement depending on your perspective, will probably get worse, and I would not be surprised if there is an actual invasion of Taiwan. I wrote twenty years ago about that possibility, and now it looks increasingly likely that the US may not have the will, or the capability, to defend Taiwan in that case. The conflict between the US and China may well lead to the concept of a Thucydides Trap, where the two exhaust themselves. That makes for a dangerous world, and India may have to step into the breach for the defense of the Indo-Pacific. From an economic perspective, the massive amounts of money printed by many countries, to combat the covid crisis, is likely to lead to inflation and thus the progressive weakening of the US dollar. The fallout from the Evergrande crisis shows that the extraordinary leveraging of China based on huge corporate and public-sector debt fueled by real estate speculation may also cause prolonged pain, just as it happened to 1980s Japan which has struggled for decades now. The chances of war in Asia, especially in Taiwan, or in Japan’s Senkaku Islands, or even in the South China Sea, are fairly high. India is part of the Quad, of course, but we should not be under any delusions that the US, Japan or Australia will come to our aid if war erupts on the Tibetan border. We will be entirely on our own, so it behooves us to be prepared to fight. We have to choose our friends carefully, and at the moment I see only two in Asia: Japan and Vietnam. Maybe Indonesia, too. The others are more likely to choose China. EducationUnfortunately India needs a veritable revolution in education, or else it will miss the boat. Unlike East Asia, which opted for universal primary education, India invested in tertiary education. This created a few oases of excellence in a sea of mediocrity, and this is yet another reason manufacturing hasn’t taken off at East Asian levels, and probably never will. Also, just last week, the CAG was complaining that at least the new IITs were not producing enough research or industrial consultancy revenue, and were still depending on the government for handouts. That shows a disconnect between the needs of industry and what academia is doing. There are also concerns about the much-vaunted STEM schools, which are now producing skewed numbers. For instance, in Kerala, 5500+ students opted for computer science, but less than 10 for civil engineering. Can you believe that? Less than 10 in the whole state in government-run common admissions? The English language issue is also stark: far from producing world-class scientists and engineers, we produce people who are functionally barely literate in both English and STEM. The less said about humanities education the better: these students are in the forefront of aping Western fads like wokeism, nothing more. So there are some serious problems, and recent education ministers have not been exactly confidence-inducing.Stock MarketsIndian stock markets have had a good run, and naturally a correction should be coming. The economic fundamentals are strong, but by some historical measures such as Price Earnings Ratio, the current valuation of the market is too high. It is true that India has some 84 unicorns (startups valued at over $1 billion at the beginning of 2022, more so than any other country except the US and China). The entrepreneurial ferment is excellent, but one can question whether or not they will justify their valuations. Some of the companies that went public also don’t seem to have a ‘moat’ protecting their business that would justify lofty valuations, eg payTM. Its founder reportedly rued the fact that he went public at this time. There is a bit of a bubble, as in the 1999 Internet Bubble in the US, and when the day of reckoning comes, it will be a little painful for a lot of us. Nevertheless, the medium-term story is pretty good, and is based on good demographics and the observed fact that at a certain GDP per head, things take off in the economy. We are at that level, which I believe is in the range of $2000-$4000 GDP per head. With digitization, a lot of hanky-panky has become either more difficult or impossible to pull off, and the formal economy has grown and with GST, tax collections have grown as well. This is a positive feedback loop which will enable greater investment in both physical and virtual platforms, thus freeing entrepreneurs and industrialists to streamline their operations. A simple example is how GST has removed border checkposts, thus reducing waiting time and bribes for interstate transport. This sort of easing of friction and thus improving efficiency is a long-term asset for India, and that optimism may be reflected in the market.Thus, as always when it comes to India, there is room for both optimism and pessimism. But even the pessimists must concede that there is some positive momentum, and that India may finally be shedding the vestiges of the self-defeating policies of eras past. 1730 words, Jan 13, 2022 This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com

In this episode of Keiser Report, Max and Stacy look at a report into the huge profits earned by the private security industry that sprouted up after the September 11th attacks 20 years ago. In the second half, Max continues his conversation with Dr. Michael Hudson about the third edition of his classic book, “Super Imperialism: The Origin and Fundamentals of US World Dominance,” as well as another new book to be published before the end of the year, “The Destiny of Civilization,” and whether or not the Thucydides Trap is real.

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties..." - John Adams Nations do not come into existence without a purpose. The same holds true for almost every facet of the human experience. Is there a semblance of predestination to the chaos that is our perceived world, or is it all random? Join the Wolf and Bull in episode 20 as they discuss the Thucydides Trap and its implications along with the purpose of the United States and how potentially revisiting that as a country, may be an excellent option to explore. New episodes weekly! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wolf-and-the-bull-podcast/support

"There is nothing which I dread so much as a division of the republic into two great parties..." - John Adams Nations do not come into existence without a purpose. The same holds true for almost every facet of the human experience. Is there a semblance of predestination to the chaos that is our perceived world, or is it all random? Join the Wolf and Bull in episode 20 as they discuss the Thucydides Trap and its implications along with the purpose of the United States and how potentially revisiting that as a country, may be an excellent option to explore. New episodes weekly! --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/wolf-and-the-bull-podcast/support

This week on Sinica, Kaiser chats with the Columbia historian Adam Tooze, who returns to the program a year after his first appearance. A prolific writer and wide-ranging public intellectual, Adam was trained as a Germanist and has focused, in his writings, largely on economic history. His books include The Wages of Destruction: The Making and Breaking of the Nazi Economy, The Deluge: The Great War, America and the Remaking of the Global Order, 1916–1931, and Crashed: How a Decade of Financial Crisis Changed the World. In July, Adam published an ambitious essay titled “Why there is no solution to our age of crisis without China” in The New Statesman, in which he lays out a brief history of China from the crisis of the Qing Empire in the 19th century through China's “Century of Humiliation” up to the project of national rejuvenation, which has been the focus of Xí Jìnpíng's 习近平 time in office. Adam talks about why he feels it's important to occasionally venture outside one's own field of specialization, as he did in writing on China as a non-specialist; the folly of two oft-cited historical analogies, comparing China with both Wilhelmine and Hitlerian Germany; the importance of comparative history in making sense of contemporary international relations; and America's difficulty, when it comes to China, in accepting pluralism from anything but a position of dominance.16:02: What we get wrong about the Thucydides Trap and other historical analogies about China21:17: Why the modern P.R.C. is not a mature fascist state28:58: The iterative nature of China's economic modernization 46:59: China as a civilization vs. China as a nation stateA transcript of this episode is available on SupChina.com.Recommendations:Adam: Stalingrad, by Vasily Grossman.Kaiser: The Spanish-language television series The Legend of El Cid.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Here are the news items:Researchers at the Salk Institute and UC San Diego have confirmed that COVID-19 is primarily a vascular disease, instead of a respiratory one.Scientists have used machine learning to identify four different types of Alzheimer's. The findings could help explain why patients suffer different symptoms, and lead to new treatment ideas.The “jungle primary” in Texas' 6th Congressional District gives us another chance to assess the value of a Donald Trump endorsement.Do progressive millennial attitudes explain the schism between corporate America and the Republican Party?Verizon is selling its media assets — including Yahoo, AOL, TechCrunch and Engadget — to the private equity firm Apollo Global Management for $5 billion.PLUS: John interviews Walter Russell Mead, a columnist for The Wall Street Journal, about whether American decline (or lack thereof), whether China can escape the Thucydides Trap, and Putin's plans for Ukraine. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

We had to punt last week's show over to this week at which point we were able to reconvene to discuss system change, digital currencies, and China. References: Metaviews: Is Systems Change Inevitable? Bombthrower: Peter Turchin and The Age of Over-Abundant Elites Of Two Minds: America's Fatal Synergies

In the wake of a historic summit in Anchorage, Alaska (the so-called "Last Frontier" as it is known by many of my fellow Americans) which marked the first official face-to-face diplomatic conference between the respective representatives of the United States of America (USA) & the People's Republic of China (PRC), there are clear but incredibly important takeaways of which will be the primary subject matter for this particular segment. In what could only be described as a tense meeting defined by mutual animosity derived from the conflicting geopolitical interests that policymakers from Washington and Beijing would not hesitate (for those who might not be fully "in the know") to reference as talking points against their respective counterparts (key figures of note: US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan being at the head of the delegation of the former, while Chinese Foreign Minister & State Councilor Wang Yi along with Director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Yang Jiechi leading the latter's diplomatic envoy). The metaphorical gauntlet with this event has been formerly thrown down and with it comes (of course!) the ramblings from casual observers to professional analysts alike of a "New Cold War" between America and China. This prevailing narrative has swept across all relevant mainstream and independent media outlets as far as the eye can see (& as much as the digital algorithms which configure our social media timelines can optimize). Beyond discussing the *real* state of play (along with the appropriate historical context) of what for some analysts has been referred to as being a modern-day version of Thucydides Trap, this podcast will attempt to take an even deeper dive into the ulterior machinations and their uncomfortable truths which fuel the false dialectic which is unfortunately proliferating across the political spectrum (at least the one which is defined by traditional and new media pundits who tend to be inclined towards a black-and-white worldview). For a subject as intricate and often misunderstood as the one being discussed —it will be clear (at least for likeminded people who are concerned with the future of mankind) that this segment, despite its *relatively* lengthy format is only beginning to truly scratch the actual surface of the shifting nature of international relations and the ongoing battle for so-called "global hegemony" between the two contemporary superpowers of the 21st century. This will not only be one of the defining issues of our own times, but that as well for the world of tomorrow & further beyond. - RECOMMENDATIONS: C-SPAN | https://www.c-span.org/video/?510091-1/secretary-blinken-chinese-foreign-minister-clash-meeting-anchorage-alaska Transcript | https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/How-it-happened-Transcript-of-the-US-China-opening-remarks-in-Alaska "Is #TheQuad an anti-China club? How 4 nations plan to engage Beijing" | https://www.straitstimes.com/world/how-quad-nations-us-japan-india-and-australia-are-squaring-up-to-china Xi Jinping's Prior Experience in the United States | https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/cnainsider/story-xi-jinping-oldest-us-friends-what-it-shows-trade-war-china-14020306 "An Intro to Taiwanese Geopolitics" via #GetNuanced | https://youtu.be/8KXpA6aqxt0 "Geopolitics of the South China Sea" via #CaspianReport | https://youtu.be/GcFiJwpvmq0 "US-China conflict 'more likely' than five years ago, says Singapore PM" | https://youtu.be/xeXdfG-Nbpw - CONNECT: YouTube | http://youtube.com/GetNuanced Twitter | http://twitter.com/GetNuanced Instagram | http://instagram.com/GetNuanced Website | http://GetNuanced.com PeachiLabs | http://PeachiLabs.com/ - #InternationRelations / #ForeignPolicy --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/getnuanced/support

Lessons From Billionaire Stephen A. Schwarzman

Getting the Indo-Asia-Pacific and relations with China right is the key to a peaceful and prosperous 21st Century. The challenge for the U.S. administration, and for policy experts writ large, is to build an effective strategy for a whole-of-government approach that will achieve a free and open Indo-Asia-Pacific while avoiding the Thucydides Trap. U.S. Army War College professors Fred Gellert, David Lai, and Jef Troxell joined host John R. Deni to discuss their new book on this subject, which provides analysis and policy recommendations on topics regarding the instruments of national power, regional affairs, and key Asia-Pacific countries.

Dr. Dawn Murphy joins Joey to chat about the rise of China on the international scene. Topics include: the Thucydides Trap, China's "century of humiliation", Xi Jinping's consolidation of power, the One Belt One Road Initiative, and the continued lack of political freedom despite the population's excitement over China's new found economic enrichment.

Buck on the Thucydides Trap. Learn more about your ad-choices at https://www.iheartpodcastnetwork.comFollow Clay & Buck on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/clayandbuckSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In his History of the Peloponnesian War, ancient Greek historian Thucydides told us the tale of a dominant regional power (Sparta) that felt threatened by the rise of a competing power (Athens). Sparta felt so threatened, in fact, that all the moves they made to keep the Athenian rise in check eventually escalated the power struggle into an all out war. Modern political scientists call this the Thucydides Trap. The idea is that when, out of fear, a dominant power takes certain steps to keep its competitor at bay, these actions ultimately lead to war between the two. There's a lot of concern that the US and China will fall into the Thucydides Trap. This is certainly a valid concern. Both are nuclear superpowers with some of the largest militaries in the world. But in 2016, modern warfare is not about tanks and aircraft carriers anymore. Modern warfare is insurgent, cyber, and financial. In fact, if you look at the state of the financial system and the tactical brinksmanship between the US and China, it's clear that the two are already in a Thucydides Trap. This power struggle is leading to financial warfare of nuclear proportions; and as with any war, there will be a lot of casualties. Just over the last several months we've seen many exchanges of fire between the two nations. The US government claimed legal jurisdiction over the Bank of China, one of the largest banks on the mainland. The Chinese launched the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a supernational bank designed to compete with the Western-dominated IMF. The US blacklisted one of China's largest telecom companies, forbidding any US company from doing business with China's ZTE. China has been rapidly expanding its global payment network, UnionPay to become a direct competitor with Western systems like Maestro, Visa, and Mastercard. And don't forget, China could unleash its nuclear option at any time-- dumping its vast trillion+ pool of US government debt, which would potentially cause a major crisis for the US dollar. It's a bit sad, because almost EVERY action of the US government only escalates the conflict further… and the Chinese eagerly follow suit. This is how World War III starts. And it will be financial. Listen in to today's podcast and learn more about how this conflict will unfold… and how to not to end up as collateral damage.