DRUNKENOMICS

ANNOUNCEMENT! Due to some career changes, the structure of Drunkenomics has to shift...but don't worry! The podcast is still in good hands of the eternally more gracious host. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

Probably not what you all were asking for, but we needed to pay some homage to the brilliant career of Warren Buffett. His insights, banter, and philosphy will be sorely missed in the investing world next year...and yes, we will all do what we can to carry the torch. Additionally, a ton of economic data came in since the last time we had a dram together. More to come on that.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

What a time to be alive...it seems like we're 5 tweets away from either a falling knife or new all time highs every other day. Now there's a 90-day pause, a joust between the Fed Chair and the President, and an honest retreat from the U.S. Dollar. I'm sure I'm missing a couple things, but go easy on me. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

Take me seriously, not literally. Literally.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL

Only did this because Tim in our discord requested an emergency, post-liberation day broadcast. FYI, I was out of whiskey, had very little time to record and edit, so sorry if it's sloppy. Cheers,

It seems like lately, the odds of a recession are climbing, but it also seems like there's so much more to the 'recession' label than GDP. However, it seems like the private sector has been catching on with new trends on how to produce more 'product' to buoy GDP; particularly with private credit & more BNPL ideas. Now what could possibly go wrong with that.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

Apologies for the awkwardness this week, had to do a solo episode due to some scheduling conflicts, but I promise we'll be back in full form next week! Wanted to give a quick recap on the markets now that we're in correction territory and show some historical data. I also may have confused the term "recession" with "bear-market" a few times, so please forgive me. I blame the whiskey. But to clarify, a recession is a widespread decline in economic activity lasting several months, while a bear market is a 20% or greater drawdown in the S&P or whatever index you like to track.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

The Trump Administration is obviously moving very fast and the economy / markets are taking it on the chin. With all the uncertainty around, investors are cleary being cautious as they find footing on how trade negotiations will impact businesses & economic growth. Additionally, GDP revisions are start to scatter as economists try to get a handle on tariffs and how that inpacts output. Hope this helps lol.Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

Is it just me, or is the idea of creating a Sovereign Wealth Fund a crazy idea? Don't get me wrong, I totally see the appeal in launching one; but the idea of the Government picking favorites just doesn't sit well at all with me. Additionally, we had some other news on inflation, debt delinquincies, and retail sentiment we had to pour one out to. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICALMerch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.comPatreon: patreon.com/drunkenomicsStay Drunkenomical y'all!

Volatility Mondays are back!! Yes the excitement is sarcastic, but the first two weeks of the Trump administration has been far more eventful than the last four years. Starting with the Deepseek shock that sent a panic across the markets, followed by dozens of Executive Orders, a Fed Meeting, some very unfortunate accidents, and tumultuous tariff talks that ended in delays thanks to some 'wonderful conversations.' Did I even scratch the surface there? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

First off, my heatfelt thoughts and prayers to all affected by the devastating wildfires. The saddest part is how most major insurance companies left the LA market months before the fires started. However, they're not the 'bad guys" here; join us for a beer as we explain. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

First episode of what will be year five of Drunkenomics! Thank you all so much for the support the last half decade! We hope the hangovers weren't too rough. As we kick off the year, we figured it'd be fitting to do a quick summary of the market outlooks from the major asset managers. That is of course after we catch up on the news about Nippon Steel and the DOD list. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

This time of year is always so reflective; but it's also a good time to forecast and prepare for the new year. It seems like the topic of conversation has mostly been around inflation and what kind of landing the Fed will navigate for the economy. With limited tools, the Fed can really only do so much to tackle inflation. So to really address the issue, what needs to happen in the new year?Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Due to the wonderful discussion that's been going on in the discord, we decided to finally talk about the Tariffs and the announced plan for the next administration. It's always a funny balance of globalism, protectionism, free trade, trade imbalance, price/supply chain efficiencies...what else am I missing here? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Well, if you were looking for less yield volatility, 25 bps in cuts along with more clarity post-election didn't do you any favors. Also, we got inspired by our friends in our discord channel & decided to have some drinks to whether or not our Federal government officials should be allowed to trade or not. A lot to unpack there believe it or not. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Apologies for the late publish, but we had to wait for election results before pouring that stiff one this week. Anyways, the red sweep after the election sent stocks soaring coupled with the Fed easing cycle continuing. Certainly a lot to unplack this week, so I'll just let you get to drinking. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

In two weeks time, we'll be through election week followed by the first post-election rate decision by the Federal Reserve. So what all has happened in the last four years and what are some things to expect for the most pivotal week of the year? Grab a drink & find out. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

What an eventful past couple weeks we experienced, huh? Starting with that amazing jobs report that caused the 10-yr yield to soar, suggesting that the Fed might've either been too Hawkish or too premature. Additionally, the Chinese hail mary of a stimulus package created some volatility overseas, but will it prove itself to be sustainable? Lastly, thoughts & prayers to the hurricane victims. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

The Fed rate decision last week was something that certainly caught us all pretty off gaurd. If you remember, we were pretty much in the camp that a 25 basis point cut was going to take place last week. However, a 50bps cut really got us wondering if the economy is as strong or resilient as it seems. Because seriously, does the economy have any serious tailwinds aside from government spending & AI Optimism? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

It's that time of the year again where people are starting to call it the September slump. However, the subject this week primarily revolves around the housing market, more elaborative discussions on some policies, and of course, the fun subject of labor hoarding. We promise to talk more about the September slump when we gather next for a dram of whiskey. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

The Harris/Walz Campaign released their economic policy (among other things); but as a drinking podcast, we tried to focus on just how, if enacted, their economic plan will impact us. Starting with their tax on capital gains to, price caps, and housing subsidies, we're drinking some Vieux Carrè's to this plan. Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Don't you also love seeing another tumultuous week in the markets? Looks like the interest arbitrage opportunity with low Japanese interest rates backfired for only a single day last week. However, cracks in the economy are starting to widen with weaker consumer sentiment, cooling inflation, and a ton of leverage. Also, big event on the political front. Had to warn you about that real quick... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

First off, sorry for putting this one out so late...we had busy work schedules along with some tech issues; which can be severe given that this is a two-man shop. Nonetheless, a lot has happened on the political front that we can't ignore. Hate to talk politics, but the overlap from econ and politics is too apparent to ignore. Beyond that, we had an incredibly volatile market since the last Fed meeting. Has anyone noticed? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Hard to not discuss politics with the eventful weekend & week we've had. But, it is an election year so it's hard to talk around the elephant in the room. With that, we poured one out to the tragic event that took place over the weekend along with the announcement of Trumps running mate. Granted, the markets seem to care very little about that as Jerome Powell made some tumultuous remarks. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

We try really hard to leave politics out of our cocktails, but with everything going on, we really couldn't help it. Starting with the U.K., a snap election took place shifting the power spectrum on 10 Downing St. towards the left. Additionally, a young, left-leaning party in France also took over much of the voting strength in Parlement français. Then of course, there was the Presidential debate here in the States...what a circus that was. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Remember when the Fed said inflation was transitory 3 years ago? Funny how that thesis played out. From there, remember when last fall & winter when the Fed talked about how much progress they made on inflation? Also funny how that thesis played out when revisions came around. Now, the Fed is boasting about the strength of the economy. This time, I must admit...they're really making me nervous. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Welp. I finally did it; I had enough drinks and tried to solve all the world's problems while the mics were hot. Sorry if the ideas suck, but at least we were able to talk about the recent inflation print, elections among some of the BRICS countries, and the Fed meeting from earlier today. But seriously, it'd be nice to have a world where we didn't all depend on the Fed to solve the problems they indirectly create. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

As another wave of graduates enter the work force, we try our best after a few drams and brews to provide our encouragement to our econoholics as they go about their job search. But first, we talked about some geopolitical suspicions along with some factors that potentially keeping investors awake at night...at least according to a Goldman Sachs survey. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Another drink leading to another conversation about the Federal Reserve; especially since this is the first time we drank together since the May Fed meeting. But it's funny how volatile markets are whenever anyone from the Fed speaks in a public setting. It seems like all markets care about anymore is their progress on taming inflation. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Happy Fed week everybody! Or is it unhappy? Either way, we can all agree that the Fed's fight against inflation is starting to look like the The Battle of the Morannon in Lord of the Rings, except without the help of the ring being destroyed. Other facilities are being used in efforts to tame inflation, especially the unwinding of the balance sheet, but it all begs the question: what's the point? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

So...if you've been paying any attention to the markets lately, you might've noticed that there has been some major volatility lately. Most of this can probably be explained by the recent hawkish Fed posturing that took place back in the first week of the month. Though this outlook didn't come as a huge surprise to us, the bond markets seemed to be totally caught off guard as bond yields shot up; even in the high quality space. I guess it's a good time to pour ourselves a stiff one... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

It's pretty easy to have a robust economy and inflated housing market when the government deficit is still running rampant and has no real signs of slowing down. Additionally, core inflation has been revised upward, likely indicating that the Fed is slightly further away from their goal of taming inflation. But while we're here, cheers to the middle class. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

And not the corporate kind, but the kind as tax payers to the government. Anyways, more & more data is suggesting that the broader economy is resilient, giving the Fed no reason to lower rates (as we've seen today). However, as the debt maturity wall approaches, the Fed or Federal Government may be forced to take on other easing measures to mitigate some debt reinvestment risk from the maturity wall. Granted, any of their solutions usually always leads to more problems or higher taxes, which is why I want my clawback. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

AI Optimism has certainly led to some unusual price action in the stock markets. As a result, it seems as though the volatility skew has flipped on its head & shifted over to the call side of the options chain, driven by FOMO. But while we're still talking about AI, is this something that's even actionable? How long will it take to implement? And does it have the potential to wreck the consumer base? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

The Fab Four/Mag Seven, as we all know, has really spearheaded the recent strength and momentum in the major markets. But could there potentially be some risks or external factors that could potentially arrest their momentum? Well, of course there are; but on the other hand, they could also not ever come to fruition. Also, retail sales number for January are noteworthy; you get a chance to look at them yet? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

So...we've been on our good news bears train for a bit now; but with recent economic data released along with us all surviving the first Fed week of 2024, we may find ourselves back in a situation where good news is bad news. With numbers coming in strong, this leaves the Fed more room to be hawkish (which is what I meant at the 30min mark when I misspoke), meaning tightness around financial markets. Also happy almost S&P 5k. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

As we approach a unique business cycle where the economy is seemingly strong despite inflation pressures, the walls may seemingly be closing in as this giant debt maturity wall approaches. Economists believe this may compel the Fed to step in, but who says that's even within their job description. On the bright side, markets as a whole seem optimistic about the massive cash balance still left on the sidelines... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Welcome to 2024 everyone, hope you all had a great holiday season! Because we have yet to see any sort of "landing" in 2023, hopefully we can see a good economic resolution and turning point in 2024. Either way, we're still on our good news bears train because why not. But with the bulk of cash uninvested on the sidelines along with the Federal reserve potentially cutting rates a few times this year, we could be ok. At least I hope so :) Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Another December to remember thanks to this post Fed Santa Claus rally. However, tensions in the Middle East brewing could finally get us off our Good News Bears train. In any event, it's been a great year y'all! Loved drinking with you guys & we'll see you again in the new year! Cheers, Drunkenomics

Welcome to probably the last big week of the year in terms of economic data being reported. With CPI and another Fed meeting coming out this week, we decided to remain cheery as we head into our holiday season. All that being said, we remain in the camp that a lot of economic troubles are easing due to economic and consumer resilience; which means the Fed will most likely not waver in terms of their hawkish posturing. But, more to come as we head towards the last presentation of the year! Cheers, Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

First off, hope you all had a great week off; also, we had to amend some things we said after a few drinks last episode. Something about IRA's being tax-sheltered. Anyways, with all the doom news going on, we had to provide some good news to talk people on the consumer level off the ledge. However, there are things to be concerned about. Although, for the most part, the economy is in pretty decent shape. So cheers to that. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

It's Thanksgiving already?? I guess with time flying so fast, we all could probably have a dram to retirement plans and ways we can make sure we're financially stable when we get to that point in our lives where we think about how time flew by so fast. Therefore, we had some gravy backs to the three pillars of retirement along with the current state of Social Security. No need to repeat this at the dinner table this week unless you really want to... Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

There you have it; CPI came in slightly lower than expected, but Fed posturing still implores the economy to put up with a "higher for longer" environment. With that, a shower thought I had recently made me think about the millennial plight; being that we are by far the most indebted generation with not only our own debt to service, but also the debt of the extremely fiscally irresponsible federal government. And the interest expense on that will be other worldly. Find us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Happy week after Fed week everyone! Hope you were all able to recover swiftly from your hangovers this last weekend because this US Government balance sheet is nothing but sobering. Upon viewing the Fed day interview with Jeff Gundlach on CNBC last week, it looks like the US consumer along with the US Government has a serious debt problem that a "higher for longer" attitude will only add fuel to the implosion. Not trying to call wolf...just saying... Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Well, the Fed decision is out now; looks like the tone and stance of the Fed is still pretty hawkish pending some sort of major economic catastrophe. But the main question now becomes: when does the Fed their terminal rate? Also, when will the Fed officially begin lowering their effective rate? Seems like money managers all over the world are trying to get a pulse on this. That and the UAW strike. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

Well...at the time this episode was being recorded, there was still a 'speakerless House.' Of course, in an uncharacteristic fashion, they managed to elect a speaker in Mike Johnson within a day of this being recorded; but congrats on getting something done finally. Most of our drams this week, however, was consumed to the discussion of which broad asset class might outperform in the next 12 months (not financial advice) given the headwinds and tailwinds we're seeing along with what the talking heads on Wall Street are talking about. I'll put a reminder in here to check if our thesis actually came to fruition. Finnd us on Twitter (X), Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

I guess...having a 'speaker-less' house is pretty fun. It's at least funny to observe the kind of clown show we have at our nation's capitol. In case you missed it, Kevin McCarthy was ousted a couple weeks ago from his speakership position and Jim Jordan was the front-runner to fill the void. But somehow, even his political weight can't get him voted in. Then of course, we had a pretty solid inflation print that was spearheaded by rising energy prices. Let's see if the Fed will try to take mattes into their own hands on that end. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

CPI data, Fed forecasts, Job Numbers, those are all important figures to pay attention to in terms of global macroeconomics, but it pales in comparison in total importance at times. In case you missed it, there was a very tragic war that broke out in Israel this weekend. Although there are some economic implications, it pales in comparison to the human cost taking place and the human right violations being executed by the terrorist organization that is Hamas. So pardon us for being a day late and being so sobering on our drinking podcast, but this one's rough. Thoughts and prayers for Israel

Welp...we've officially made it to the last quarter of the year; and what a year it's been. Because we're all awake now that September has ended, we can expect to see CPI data come in similar to the way energy stocks performed last month. If you were asleep for the month like Billie Joe of Green Day, I'll fill you in and let you know that energy, particularly oil, had quite a run; which means, I'm not feeling optimistic about inflation data. Also, happy trails Kevin McCarthy. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

As the Fed President has mentioned in his presser today, the economy still has yet to see the affects of the tightening monetary policy from last year. Pair that with employment and inflation data that just came in, it shows that the Fed potentially still has room to enact further tightening. Granted, equities and especially fixed income markets are begging for some relief; which means this tug of war will probably result in absolutely nothing happening in Washington this week. Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!

I'm beating myself up for not coming up with the question earlier...but why is the Fed so obsessed the the 2% inflation rate? Historically, inflation has seen an average rate of about 4%. Granted, that does include some difficult cycles of price increases; but that accounted for, is that 2% target rate worth achieving even if it does crater the economy and wage growth? Also, what's this I hear about capital requirements going up? Find us on Twitter, Instagram, & Facebook @DRUNKENOMICAL Merch: drunkenomics.myspreadshop.com Patreon: patreon.com/drunkenomics Stay Drunkenomical y'all!