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New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just admitted the Fed itself is the reason homebuyers keep getting whipsawed. Boom, then bust. One generation gets a once-in-a-lifetime shot at a first home; the next gets locked out. Tonight Jeb & Josh break down what he actually said and what it means for mortgage rates and the housing market.Start Here
In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThis episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.Chapters:00:00 AI Spending Arms Race01:08 Markets Brace for CPI06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage11:40 What Inflation Really Means14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame17:58 Fed Headcount Shock22:32 Two Percent Target Myth27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability33:40 Day One Recap Continues34:09 Grow My X Account35:13 Congress Inflation Theater36:06 Trump Grift Claims37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet41:08 Who Wins Low Rates43:46 Fed And Black Workers49:09 AI Bubble Warning51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign OffFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #AIBubbleOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured Chris reacts to the new Federal Reserve chair's sharp criticism of past inflation policy and his pledge to restore price stability. He explains why inflation remains deeply embedded, why rising prices continue to strain American families despite moderating CPI data, and why meaningful Fed reform could be a step in the right direction.
Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses where investors may find opportunity beyond the AI sector and risks that could slow market gains.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our broadening thesis and the near-term risks to monitor. It's Tuesday, July 14th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. The broadening trade is now playing out. It's showing up in stock prices, relative performance and earnings revisions. It's also making investors question the sustainability of the most crowded areas of the market, and consider other near-term risks. I first made the broadening call late last year based on my view that the economy had entered a new expansion after completing the rolling recession in April of 2025. In a new expansion, earnings growth tends to be much better than expected because revenue growth returns to companies that have already become more cost efficient. That's classic operating leverage. The market began to anticipate that dynamic late last year, but then the Iran conflict interrupted the move. Oil surged, rate-cut expectations disappeared, and investors crowded back into the most obvious AI capex beneficiaries led by semiconductors and memory, in particular. Since mid May, that interruption has faded with oil prices falling sharply and the broadening trade has begun to work again. Importantly, the market is not abandoning AI. It is simply rotating within AI and beyond AI. And that distinction matters. Semiconductors have had a historic run, supported by earnings revisions. But even great stories get exhausted in the short term. When earnings revisions breadth is pressing against historical highs and the trade becomes one of the most crowded areas of the market, the bar for upside gets very high. At that point, the issue is not whether the story is good. The issue is whether the rate of change can keep improving. That is a very different question. The underperformance of the hyperscalers was probably the first warning sign. Semis depend on hyperscaler capex. So when the spenders start lagging the beneficiaries, that divergence usually resolves one way or another. And now we're starting to see it. Meta's decision to sell excess capacity to outside customers may not mean the AI capex cycle is over. But it does tell you the market is beginning to ask harder questions about the path and pace of that spending. Credit spreads and stock prices of these hyperscalers provide the feedback loop to managements that maybe they should curtail the pace of spend. We've had multiple corrections inside this AI cycle already. This looks like another one – not the end of the cycle, but a reset. That reset is what gives the rest of the market room to work. Our preferred ways to express the broadening remain Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Biotech. These are not the areas investors have been excited about. In fact, positioning and sentiment remain subdued. But that's exactly why I like them. The risks to the story in the short term are two-fold. First, uncertainty about the full re-opening of the strait remains high, with pivots on both sides. This is keeping oil prices volatile in the short term even if the primary trend remains lower. Second, interest rate volatility is picking up again with the entire curve shifting higher in both nominal and real terms. If this doesn't stabilize, it will have a negative impact on stocks both at the index level and even for stocks that should benefit from our broadening call. With the inflation data coming in today softer than expected, this should reduce some of the recent upward pressure on rates. However, the new Fed Chair and board remain resolute to make sure inflation doesn't rear its head again. In the end, dealing with this risk up front is a good thing in my view even if it means uncertainty for markets. Bottom line, equity markets have been consolidating and correcting for the past several months. This is the result of the peak rate of change in earnings revisions and a reaction function shift at the Fed to focus more on the inflation mandate than growth. With the recent rollover in semiconductors, heavy supply of equity and credit issuance, and a transition of leadership at the Fed, expect more volatility and corrective activity in stocks before the next leg of the bull market resumes. Don't chase momentum. Instead, add to risk on down days to areas that will benefit from a broadening in the economy and earnings growth. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!
The new Federal Reserve Chairman has officially stepped into the spotlight. In today's episode, we break down Kevin Warsh's first appearance before Congress and what his testimony may reveal about the future of U.S. monetary policy. Every word from a Fed Chair is scrutinized by Wall Street, and this hearing offered investors their first real look at Warsh's priorities, concerns, and vision for the economy. The big question is: Is Kevin Warsh preparing to change the direction of the Federal Reserve… or simply continue the path already in place? We'll discuss: The key takeaways from Warsh's congressional testimony His views on inflation, employment, and economic growth What his comments may signal for future interest rate decisions How the bond market, stock market, and U.S. dollar are reacting The sectors that could benefit—or struggle—under his leadership We'll also explore why congressional testimony often moves markets more than the actual Fed meeting itself. Traders aren't just listening for policy changes—they're searching for subtle clues about what may come next. Because in today's markets... Expectations often move prices long before policy does. Whether you're trading stocks, bonds, futures, or cryptocurrencies, understanding the Federal Reserve remains one of the most important pieces of market analysis. Listen now:
In our news wrap Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the House Financial Services Committee that inflation will be "a thing of the past," the CDC says there are now nearly 7,000 confirmed or suspected cases of cyclosporiasis nationwide and New York is now the first state to issue a moratorium on building new large data centers. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy
Send us Fan MailDollar rally pauses even as Middle East tensions further bolster Fed hike bets. US CPI inflation data and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony in focus. Yen falls as Japan has no immediate plans to alter pension fund strategy. Wall Street and gold slide ahead of today's key events.Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay updated on a daily basis: https://www.xm.com/weekly-forex-review-and-outlookIn-depth forex news analysis on all major currencies, such as EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/CAD, AUD/USD
Stellar economic analysts Dean Baker, Paul Krugman, and Stephanie Ruhle join Harry for his periodic deep dive into the ways Trump is reshaping the U.S. economy. The panel weighs the immediate and long-term economic effects of Trump's on-again, off-again war with Iran. Next, they take stock of Trump's record-breaking self-enrichment, and of how the Supreme Court has opened the door to more chaos and self-dealing. They close with a look at Kevin Warsh, Trump's hand-picked new Fed Chair, tasked with keeping a fragile economy on track. Mentioned in this episode: Dean's column: https://cepr.net/series/dean-bakers-beat-the-press/Paul's Substack: https://paulkrugman.substack.com/Stephanie's new show: https://www.ms.now/money-power-politics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Danielle DiMartino Booth calls the first FOMC minutes under Kevin Warsh "clean" as most Fed members expressed clear stances on energy's inflationary impact. She discusses where she sees those inflationary pressures hitting Americans the most, from the grocery store to travel costs. As Danielle explains, it likely will lead big banks to lend less money to consumers. She also talks about Warsh's "less is more" approach as Fed Chair. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Liz Peek. Revamping Federal Reserve Communications: No More Dot Plots? Liz Peek discusses new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's shift away from "forward guidance" and "dot plots". She argues this pragmatic approach requires investors to analyze raw economic data rather than Fed algorithms. Despite past recession fears, the economy remains stable with low unemployment at 4.2%. (1)1920s
Futures moved off lows after the U.S. made retaliation strikes against Iran following an attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Kevin Hincks urges investors to brace for an "unsteady" trading session as crude oil prices creep higher. It also makes Kevin Warsh's job as Fed Chair more difficult with inflation once again becoming a larger concern. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
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Charles is joined by Hennessy & Warsh Asset Management CIO Kevin Maughan to discuss why the new Fed Chair will rewrite inflation rules, how a slowing economy could pause rate hikes, and which AI infrastructure and biotech stocks to buy now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Last month, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first interest rate decision and press conference … but he didn't talk much about maximum employment. How much does Kevin Warsh care about the jobs side of the Fed's dual mandate?Fact checking by Sierra Juarez.Your Next Listen — Are we in a new era of permanently higher prices?Connect with The Indicator — Sign up for The Indicator's brand new newsletter— Buy the Planet Money book— Find our socials, YouTube and more!— For sponsor-free episodes, subscribe to NPR+ See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy
Alan Greenspan wrote a 1966 essay arguing gold-backed money was essential to freedom, that fiat currency would destroy savings and fund endless government expansion — then became Fed Chair, took rates to 1%, started quantitative easing, and did every single thing he said was evil. Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight use Greenspan's death as a lens on where his successors have left us: $40 trillion in official debt, $350 trillion in global sovereign debt, and a Fed with no Volcker option because the interest payments alone would collapse the Treasury before inflation was ever tamed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.
Alan Greenspan wrote a 1966 essay arguing gold-backed money was essential to freedom, that fiat currency would destroy savings and fund endless government expansion — then became Fed Chair, took rates to 1%, started quantitative easing, and did every single thing he said was evil. Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight use Greenspan's death as a lens on where his successors have left us: $40 trillion in official debt, $350 trillion in global sovereign debt, and a Fed with no Volcker option because the interest payments alone would collapse the Treasury before inflation was ever tamed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.
Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure
Fed Chair's Inflation Comments Lift Bitcoin Above $60,000New UK Law Caps Foreign Donations for Crypto Investors at $132,000France Plans Enhanced Response to Cryptocurrency Attacks
Discover why Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, sent an important message and what it was. Are you on track for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest can make the biggest difference to your financial freedom and lifestyle. If you invested well for the long-term, what a difference it would make because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters! INVESTING IS WHAT THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE IS ALL ABOUT - Invest in digital assets and stock ETFs for potential high compounding rates - Receive an Asset Allocation model with ticker symbols and what % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda 10 months per year, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily community interaction -Weekly investment commentary -Extra educational wealth classes available -Pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring membership fees. -US and foreign investors are welcome -No minimum $ amount to invest -Tech Team available for digital assets (for hire per hour) For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional recurring fees. Pay once and you're done! Invest with our successful community for years to come. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or set up a complimentary conversation to answer your questions about the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Request an appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed LINDA'S WEALTH BOOKS 1. Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". 2. Get my book, "You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!" Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning. SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here. #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom. (This post contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and make a purchase, I may receive a commission. There is no additional cost to you.)
Plus: Meta stock has its best day since January following reports that the company is building a cloud business to sell its excess AI computing power. And General Mills shares rise after unveiling its turnaround plan. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
CNBC Business News Update with Jessica Ettinger - market numbers and news featuring CNBC expert analysis and sound from top business names. Visit https://www.cnbc.com/ for more. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Aymeric Poizot, Global Head of Investor Development at Fitch Ratings, is joined by Chief Economist Brian Coulton to examine what Kevin Warsh's arrival as Fed Chair means for monetary policy and markets.They explore Warsh's more hawkish tone, his focus on Fed communications and balance sheet reduction, and his push to restore credibility on inflation. The conversation also breaks down the latest rate decision and what falling oil prices and persistent inflation could mean for the odds of a hike later this year and the impact on Treasury yields and credit markets.
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A new Fed Chair could change investing for the next decade.Kevin Warsh is calling for a fundamental shift in how the Federal Reserve approaches interest rates, inflation, and economic policy. If he's successful, the investing playbook that's defined the past 20 years may no longer apply.In this episode, Bob Fraser, Ben Fraser, and Ellis Hammond break down what Warsh's vision could mean for stocks, bonds, real estate, inflation, the yield curve, and your portfolio. Learn how investors can prepare for a new era of higher rates, market-driven capitalism, and long-term investing.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to https://investlikeabillionaire.org/ to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at https://aspenfunds.us/
Advisors and co-hosts Zachary Bouck, CIMA®, CFP®, and Austyn Garcia, recap our June 2026 portfolio meeting, discussing what happened in the markets over the last month, our approach to traditional asset allocation (cash, fixed-income, equities, and alternatives), and our general outlook for the next 6-12 months in the markets. Visit www.denverwealthmanagement.com to schedule a free consultation.
While the market chases AI stocks and IPOs at 90x sales, Simon Erickson is looking in the opposite direction, at CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a business that doesn't care if markets go up or down. It just needs them to move. CME Group sits at the center of global derivatives trading across six asset classes, interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agriculture, and metals, capturing the bid-ask spread on every contract that clears through its platform. Q1 2026 delivered all-time records in both revenue (up 14% to nearly $2 billion) and average daily volume (36.2 million contracts/day, up 22%), with record volumes across all six product lines simultaneously.0:00 - Introduction and Overview of CME Group as a business3:31 - Review of CME's six product classes 6:41 - Review of Q1 2026 Results (from our 7investing Community Forum)8:42 - Why Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair will be important for CME Group10:48 - New Retail product lines: Crypto, e-mini futures, and even compute pricing14:18 - A look at CME Group's current valuation and why the stock has been selling off16:19 - Why we recently upgraded CME Group to a "Strong Buy" conviction rating 18:32 - Q&A with audience questions + a review of CME Group's capital allocation policiesThe business model is exceptional: near-zero variable costs as volumes scale, massive network effects, and a 70% operating margin in Q1 2026, up 250 basis points year over year. With geopolitical uncertainty (Iran oil prices, Russia/Eastern Europe conflict, China tariff tensions) and a brand new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Walsh navigating rate policy, Simon believes 2026 and 2027 will bring more volatility, not less. That's directly in CME Group's favor. The company is also launching new products including Bitcoin volatility futures, e-mini S&P 500 and NASDAQ options at one-tenth standard contract size (opening the door to retail investors), and a first-of-its-kind AI compute futures product in partnership with Silicon Data Partner.CME Group is also returning serious capital to shareholders: a longstanding variable dividend policy that pays out 50% of annual earnings, plus a $3 billion share repurchase authorization, $500 million of which was deployed just last quarter, with $2.5 billion still available. CEO Terry Duffy is transitioning out after a decade at the helm, handing off to 20-year company veteran Lynn Fitzpatrick (currently President and CFO), in what Simon views as seamless succession planning. This is a company that knows exactly what it is and executes flawlessly.7investing upgraded CME Group to strong buy conviction in November 2024, the stock returned 51% by March 2026, nearly tripling the S&P 500 return over the same period. They've just upgraded it to strong buy again in June 2026. The stock has pulled back significantly from its March highs, and valuation multiples on price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow are all at five-year lows. If you want a stock that hedges against market chaos rather than suffering through it, CME Group is worth a serious look.Discuss CME Group with us in our 7investing Community Forum! https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSStocks & Companies Mentioned:CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) — teased for upcoming Friday episodeKalshi — private (prediction markets competitor)FMX Exchange — private (interest rate futures competitor)FanDuel — private (CME prediction markets partner)Silicon Data Partner — private (CME compute futures partner)#CMEGroup #CME #StockAnalysis #ValueInvesting #DividendStocks #HiddenGems #MarketVolatility #DerivativesTrading #InterestRates #Bitcoin #CryptoFutures #InvestingIn2026 #UndervaluedStocks #GrowthStocks #7investing #Simonerickson
This episode of Money Talk opens with a tribute to Alan Greenspan, who passed away at age 100. Hosts Dave Spano and Chief Economic Strategist Dr. Brian Jacobson reflect on his long tenure as Fed Chair (1987–2006), the evolution of Fed transparency (from the “briefcase indicator” to today's detailed forward guidance and dot plots), his famous “irrational exuberance” warning, and parallels to current AI-driven productivity gains.Market and Economic DiscussionAI and “Tech Wreck”: The conversation shifts to recent market volatility in tech, particularly the move from semiconductors (Nvidia etc.) to memory chips (Micron and others). Record earnings and ~85% gross margins at Micron highlight strong pricing power, but any hint of slowing growth causes big stock swings. This demand is driving up consumer prices—Apple, Microsoft (Xbox), and Sony raised device prices, with electronic goods up ~10% year-over-year per the PCE index.Data Centers and Policy Risks: Explosive data center growth faces local/state pushback and potential federal moratoriums, adding election-year volatility.Global Update: UK political turmoil post-Brexit and rising populism; Middle East developments with ships resuming through the Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to round-trip lower; a flattening Treasury yield curve signaling possible slower growth.Financial Planning SegmentsRestricted Stock Units (RSUs): Tom Bergholtz and Arabella Parent explain RSUs as common equity compensation—graded vs. cliff vesting, tax treatment (ordinary income at vesting, capital gains on sale), withholding shortfalls, and differences from Restricted Stock Awards (RSAs).Retirement Milestones: Senior Wealth Manager Mary Lou Davidoff outlines key ages (50, 55, 59½, 62, 65, 70, 73, etc.) for tax, Social Security, and savings strategies. Emphasis on starting early (e.g., Roth IRAs), flexibility when “life happens,” and holistic planning.Caregiver Tax Benefits: Dan Phillips highlights overlooked deductions and credits for the 63 million family caregivers (big rise in recent years), including dependent care credits, medical expense deductions (above 7.5% AGI), and record-keeping tips. A proposed Caregiving Act is noted.Wealthy Retiree Mindsets: Mike Dodge discusses habits like intentional spending with guardrails, continued investing for longevity/inflation, emotional discipline, proactive tax/estate/gifting strategies (including QCDs), and viewing wealth beyond just money (health, time, relationships).2026 Investment Themes: Mike Kirk covers AI integration for productivity, energy demands from data centers, shifting demographics and consumer habits across generations, and positioning portfolios around these macro forces.Historical ContextDr. Brian Jacobson continues the “America 250” series on 1913: creation of the Federal Reserve after the 1907 Panic, the 16th Amendment (income tax), 17th Amendment (direct Senate election), and shifts during WWI.The show reinforces Annex Wealth Management's fee-only fiduciary approach, in-house planning services, and encourages listeners to use the “Get Started” button at annexwealth.com. It balances market analysis, practical planning advice, and long-term perspective.
Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 199410:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year23:10 - What defines a market regime change27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer
Is the Federal Reserve preparing to raise interest rates? In this episode of Everyday Economics, Chris Krug and economist Orphe Divounguy break down new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, the latest Fed statement, the dot plot forecast, inflation concerns, and what it all means for interest rates, jobs, consumer spending, and the U.S. economy. Learn why Fed officials are divided and what could happen next for inflation and rate policy. #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #Economy #FedChair #KevinWarsh #EverydayEconomics #TheStates #EconomicNews #FedMeeting Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
Following Kevin Warsh's highly anticipated debut as Fed Chair, Hannah Chew and Manpreet Gill break down his inaugural policy message and its implications for investors. They also analyse the potential impact on oil prices, sharing fresh perspectives on US and Asia ex-Japan equities. Listen now to discover key market takeaways and exactly where opportunities are opening up in bonds amid policy shifts.You can read our latest Weekly Market View today here.Speaker(s):- Hannah Chew, Portfolio Strategist, Standard Chartered Bank - Manpreet Gill, CIO of Africa, Middle East & Europe (AME/E), Standard Chartered Bank For more of our latest market insights, visit Market views on-the-go or subscribe to Standard Chartered Wealth Insights on YouTube.
Mary welcomes back David Holland to get his take on the thing of which most of us have little to no working understanding: the global economy. On the recent death of internationally known Fed Chair Alan Greenspan at age 100, we look at the world he presided over, versus the partisanship and digital challenges 20 years later. Yet one thing remains constant: God is the one Who will allow the Money Masters of the Universe to pull the rug and the plug and lead us into the Revelation version of a global economy. Who is the new Fed Chair and what does he want with our money? We talk about tech bubbles, national bubbles, booms and busts while navigating warnings of the sky falling on us all. What is the Yen Carry Trade? Empires and kingdoms have come and gone and crumbled at some point so we know change is on the way regardless. Always an informative hour with David. Stand Up For The Truth Videos: https://rumble.com/user/CTRNOnline & https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgQQSvKiMcglId7oGc5c46A
Alan Greenspan's Legacy and the New Fed Chair. Guest: Elizabeth Peek. This segment reflects on the passing of Alan Greenspan and the transition to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. Peek highlights Warsh's goal to reform data collection and move away from forecasting, favoring real-time data over the traditional, often confusing, communication styles of his predecessors like Greenspan. 119202
In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.
The Fed Chair's job isn't to stabilize the economy. It's to use prestige, technical jargon, and mind-numbing dullness to cover for the central bank's expropriation of the American people. And Alan Greenspan excelled at that.Read the article here: https://mises.org/mises-wire/greenspan-was-perfect-fed-chair-not-compliment2026 is the Year of Rothbard—Murray's 100th birthday—and we're celebrating by giving away free copies of Keynes the Man through June 30. Grab yours today at https://mises.org/gabfreebookBe sure to follow the Guns and Butter podcast at https://Mises.org/GB
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At the start of 2026, many economists expected growth to slow.Since then, we've had tariffs, inflation concerns, conflict in the Middle East, oil volatility, and a new Fed Chair. Yet the economy keeps growing.In this episode, Bob Fraser and Ellis Hammond sit down with Belinda Román, Associate Professor of Economics at St. Mary's University, to discuss what's changed, what's surprised her, and whether the economy is proving more resilient than investors expected.We cover tariffs, inflation, consumer spending, interest rates, AI-driven productivity, recession risks, and what investors should be watching in the second half of 2026.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to https://investlikeabillionaire.org/ to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at https://aspenfunds.us/
"There is AI fatigue," says Jake Dollarhide, but he says the question lies in whether investors will buy the dip on the South Korean KOSPI's 10% sell-off. The tech trade also faces an environment tilting toward interest rate hikes, as Jake outlines the case for AI investors to find direction amid the current trading outlook. He explains his investment strategy and assesses Kevin Warsh's performance as Fed Chair so far.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about
Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has died at 100 years old, leaving an enormous legacy for the American financial system. Economist Mohamed El-Erian remembers this titan of American economics, including his historic career as Fed Chair for five consecutive terms under four U.S. Presidents. Author Walter Isaacson shares Greenspan stories of his own, as well as his expectations for a SpaceX-Tesla merger. Plus, CNBC's Eamon Javers reports on the latest round of talks between the U.S. and Iran, and “Toy Story 5” lassoed 2026's biggest opening weekend at the box office. Eamon Javers - 3:36 Mohamed El-Erian - 18:05 Walter Isaacson - 28:53 In this episode: Eamon Javers, @eamonjavers Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.
As we near the mid-point of a tumultuous year, we give this market a health check with Jay Woods of Freedom Capital Markets. Plus, there's a new Fed Chair in town, and Kevin Warsh is focused squarely on inflation and recreating the central bank through a series of task forces. And, investors keep riding just a few stocks to higher highs, and some are taking on a lot of margin debt to amplify their gains. What could go wrong? Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices
Get the stories from today's show in THE STACK: https://justinbarclay.comJoin Justin in the MAHA revolution - http://HealthWithJustin.comProTech Heating and Cooling - http://ProTechGR.com New gear is here! Check out the latest in the Justin Store: https://justinbarclay.com/storeKirk Elliott PHD - FREE consultation on wealth conservation - http://GoldWithJustin.comTry Cue Streaming for just $2 / day and help support the good guys https://justinbarclay.com/cueUp to 80% OFF! Use promo code JUSTIN http://MyPillow.com/JustinPatriots are making the Switch! What if we could start voting with our dollars too? http://SwitchWithJustin.com
This week on Canadian Macro Investor, Simon and Dan break down a packed macro backdrop: global central banks turning more hawkish, Kevin Warsh’s push to rethink how the Fed communicates and uses data, and why markets may be too relaxed about inflation risks. They also discuss the Canadian dollar, oil prices, the fragile Iran memorandum of understanding, and whether geopolitical risk is being ignored because investors are so focused on the AI trade. From there, they dig into OSFI lowering the Domestic Stability Buffer for Canadian banks, what it could mean for credit creation, and whether Ottawa is quietly trying to stimulate the economy through the banking system. The episode wraps with Canada’s population decline, falling rents, purpose-built rental supply, and why the housing market could remain under pressure even if construction slows. Topics discussed: central banks, Fed policy, Bank of Canada, Canadian dollar, oil prices, Iran, AI stocks, OSFI, Canadian banks, housing, rents, population growth. Watch the full video on Our New Youtube Channel! Check out our portfolio by going to Jointci.com Our Website Canadian Investor Podcast Network Twitter: @cdn_investing Simon’s twitter: @Fiat_Iceberg Braden’s twitter: @BradoCapital Dan’s Twitter: @stocktrades_ca Want to learn more about Real Estate Investing? Check out the Canadian Real Estate Investor Podcast! Apple Podcast - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Spotify - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Web player - The Canadian Real Estate Investor Asset Allocation ETFs | BMO Global Asset Management Sign up for Fiscal.ai for free to get easy access to global stock coverage and powerful AI investing tools. Register for EQ Bank, the seamless digital banking experience with better rates and no nonsense.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Arthur Hayes on his HYPE position, AI bubble, and the new Fed Chair. On today's Markets Outlook, BitMEX Co-Founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why all roads still lead to money printing, how long the AI bubble has left, and why he has zero regrets about publicly selling his HYPE position. Plus, his reaction to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin stress test. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Arthur Hayes Joins Markets Outlook 01:30 - Arthur's Reaction to Michael Saylor News and Strategy Business Model 02:59 - When Does the AI Bubble Burst? 03:56 - New Fed Chair Warsh's Task Forces & What It Really Means 06:58 - Uniswap & Standard Chartered's $100 Price Target 08:06 - Responding to the HYPE Selloff Drama 09:24 - HYPE vs. SOL: Which Wins? - For more commentary from Arthur Hayes: IG - https://www.instagram.com/cryptohayes/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/arthur-hayes-b493b42/ Substack - https://cryptohayes.substack.com/ Web: https://www.cryptohayes.com X - https://x.com/cryptohayes - Maelstrom Fund: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/maelstromfund Web - https://www.maelstrom.fund X - https://x.com/maelstromfund - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://youtu.be/75LrBmSScvY - To get marketing moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.
Warsh set up 5 task forces to study inflation. You only study a problem when you don't want to solve it. Same game, new players.This episode is sponsored by InvestingPRO. Get 55% off + an EXTRA 15% off with my code PETERSCHIFF at checkout! Sign up: https://www.investing-referral.com/peterschiff/This episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise — rates held at 3.5-3.75% unanimously, forward guidance was eliminated, and dot plots now project two rate hikes by year-end. But Peter Schiff argues it's all theater. Instead of actually fighting inflation, Warsh announced five new task forces to "study" the Fed's balance sheet, communications, data sources, jobs, and inflation itself — the classic government move of establishing committees to avoid solving problems.Warsh acknowledged inflation is a choice, and Schiff agrees — the Fed has chosen inflation over the alternative of crashing markets and forcing fiscal responsibility since the Greenspan era. The question is whether Warsh will break that tradition when push comes to shove. Schiff says no: Trump won't tolerate a bear market, the Treasury Secretary is having weekly breakfasts with the Fed Chair, and the political pressure to print will overwhelm any hawkish posturing. Meanwhile, Strategy's death spiral accelerated with Stretch falling to $89 — wiping out the entire annual yield in one month — while Saylor continues diluting common shareholders to fund dividends he can't sustain. SpaceX soared past $3 trillion on a 4% float, sucking speculative capital away from crypto and accelerating Bitcoin's decline to $64,000.Chapters:00:00 Warsh Shocks Markets00:45 Rates Hold Steady01:26 Trump Versus Powell03:42 Shortest Fed Statement06:01 Ample Reserves Contradiction07:13 Five Task Forces Announced32:18 Term Insurance Not Investing33:40 Fed Task Forces Skepticism39:56 Inflation Tax And Politics44:37 SpaceX IPO Mania47:23 Bitcoin Strategy Death Spiral55:37 Gold Silver Buy The Dip56:29 Same Fed Same Game Wrap Up58:29 Closing And Follow MeFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #FOMCOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy
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Arthur Hayes on his HYPE position, AI bubble, and the new Fed Chair. On today's Markets Outlook, BitMEX Co-Founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why all roads still lead to money printing, how long the AI bubble has left, and why he has zero regrets about publicly selling his HYPE position. Plus, his reaction to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin stress test. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Arthur Hayes Joins Markets Outlook 01:30 - Arthur's Reaction to Michael Saylor News and Strategy Business Model 02:59 - When Does the AI Bubble Burst? 03:56 - New Fed Chair Warsh's Task Forces & What It Really Means 06:58 - Uniswap & Standard Chartered's $100 Price Target 08:06 - Responding to the HYPE Selloff Drama 09:24 - HYPE vs. SOL: Which Wins? - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://youtu.be/75LrBmSScvY - To get marketing moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.
Today, we note the huge change in vibe and substance as new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh took charge at the Fed at his first meeting. He is a great communicator and put his stamp on how this Fed will be a very different one with far fewer hints on its intentions - i.e. no forward guidance to the degree possible. The initial market read was clearly hawkish, but while short rates jumped as a possible FOMC rate hike was pulled forward, the longest treasury yields fell. We look at the reaction function across markets, including in currencies and more as the market will have to find its sea legs with this new Fed. This and more on today's pod, which is hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Link As discussed on today's pod, interesting to note the GM-Lockheed Martin partnership announcement. It wasn't specified what GM might produce, but the Iran war made clear that the US needs a new approach to mass producing military tech. About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.
The Federal Reserve held rates steady in Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. With inflation rising to 4.2% and job growth remaining strong, here's what investors need to know about the outlook for mortgage rates and real estate. Want to learn more? Visit www.NewsforInvestors.com.
The central bank holds its benchmark rate steady, as expected. Plus: SpaceX shares decline after three straight days of gains. However, the rocket maker is still the Nasdaq's most actively traded stock by dollar volume. Alexis Green hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new Fed Chair leading his first monetary policy meeting and possible implications for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, markets are watching the Fed's next move. Are rate cuts delayed or could hikes possibly be back on the table? It's Tuesday, June 16th at 8:30am in New York. So, Mike, the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow is likely more about reading the signal rather than announcing a rate change. Markets will focus on inflation forecasts, the unemployment rate, and the growth outlook. But, of course, this will also be the first meeting after Powell ended his term as Fed chair in May. All eyes will be on Warsh. So, what are your thoughts before the press conference? Michael Gapen: A lot of thoughts, actually, before the press conference. I do think it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be changing its easing bias in favor of more neutral language. Seems clear the committee wants to do that, probably wanted to do that at the last meeting. And it does fit, I think, Warsh's preference for less communication, less guidance from the Fed. So, I do think that's largely a foregone conclusion, although obviously we need to see whether that happens and whether there are dissents. I think, as you noted, the forecasts will be important, but I think what's really important from my perspective – more than the modal outlook or the baseline that participants have – is their assessment of the balance of risks around the dual mandate. And I say that because obviously a year ago, the Fed eased policy when it felt that there were downside risks to the labor market that outweighed upside risk to inflation. This year, that seems to have flipped, where the labor market appears to have stabilized, labor demand has picked up a little bit, and it is inflation that looks persistent. So, if the Fed cut last year on downside risk to the labor market, I think the concern for markets is – maybe they hike in 2027 or later this year based on a changing balance of risks in the direction of firmer inflation. So, for me, that's really kind of key. In addition to what they're saying about growth inflation in the labor market, what is their assessment of the distribution of risks around that modal forecast? Matthew Hornbach: There's definitely going to be a lot of investor interest in the press conference itself. What exactly may result from the opening statement. Presumably, Chair Warsh will give an opening statement. How are you thinking about the back and forth between Warsh and the reporters that are asking questions? Are there certain questions that you would anticipate him getting asked, and how do you think he might respond? Michael Gapen: Well, I think certainly that if we are correct, and I think markets are correct, that they do change forward guidance in the statement to more neutral bias, that certainly opens up the possibility that the Fed will be hiking. So, the obvious first question is – is this the first step in the direction of hiking? What would get you to raise rates? Should investors be thinking about that? Is that the course of travel here? Now Warsh may not want to answer that if he, kind of, is consistent in the view of saying the Fed shouldn't give a lot of forward guidance. So maybe get some popcorn, Matt. It could be a situation where he gets asked questions about the future path of monetary policy, and maybe he decides, ‘I don't want to take that up right now. The data will tell us, and we'll do what's necessary.' And second, I think as you're noting and getting to about the structure of the press conference and what he might say is; past Federal Reserve chairs, let's say from Bernanke on, have found the press conference – the press conference statement, the questions, the format, the venue – as a way to control the narrative. And I think what will be interesting is to see whether Warsh has the same design. The risk, of course, is perhaps that he doesn't and pulls back the amount of communication guidance that he wants to give. And then we'll see what fills that vacuum. What narrative fills that vacuum? And is he okay with that? So, it may be that there's a new sheriff in town, and he chooses that there's some questions I'll answer, others I won't. And so, I do think that interaction with the press corps will be interesting. Hard to know exactly where it's going to come down until we see it in real time. Matthew Hornbach: During Chair Warsh's testimony to Congress, he alluded to the idea that potentially the Fed may not do a press conference at every meeting going forward. How are you thinking about that in the context of this idea that if you leave a void, somebody else may fill it? Michael Gapen: Obviously, the Fed used to not have press conferences at all, and then they moved to having them quarterly or four times a year. And they found that that was a little suboptimal because it became harder to make decisions and changes in the off-press conference meetings [be]cause they didn't have a venue to explain what they were doing and what they were thinking. So, they migrated to eight meetings. So, I think it's kind of twofold. Yes, it would mean that they speak less and therefore maybe their word doesn't carry as much weight. Or there's longer gaps for other narratives to come in. Like, do we lose forward guidance from the Fed, and is that replaced by forward guidance from the Treasury, for example? How do markets weigh those signals? And but then also I would say would that ultimately box in the Fed to only make decisions on quarterly meetings rather than eight times a year? Would the chair, for example… Let's assume that at some point in the future, the Fed decides it does want to raise interest rates. Historically, the Fed does not surprise on rate hikes. It's perfectly willing to surprise on rate cuts, when it comes to that. But if there is a world where the Fed does decide, ‘Hey, we do need to raise rates, but we don't have a press conference to explain our view.' Would they take the decision at that meeting or would they wait? So, does it reduce their opportunity set? Matthew Hornbach: I think this issue would certainly be an interesting one for investors to think about, which is why I'm bringing it up with you. Because to the extent that the plan going forward is to hold a press conference only once a quarter, as you alluded to – investors may interpret that as the Fed not being willing to raise rates at every single meeting going forward, which would certainly affect the pricing in the very short end of the interest rate market. But more broadly, on communication strategy, do you think that that would be something that Chair Warsh would take upon himself? Or do you think it would be more likely for him to organize a committee to discuss communications? Michael Gapen: I think the right thing to do… Again, our job is to say what we think he will do – not what he should do. But I'm going to answer this one in the question of what I think he should do. I do think he should create, say, a subcommittee on communication and reevaluate what the Fed does. [Be]ause as chair, he has almost unilateral control over communications. But obviously you work within a committee, the committee operates with consensus. So, I do think it would make sense to, kind of, work through a committee and try and get as much consensus as you can. And, here, what I would hope where they, kind of, ultimately land is – Warsh has been critical in the past of the Fed's forecast, the forecast being incorrect, providing maybe incorrect forward guidance. And I would argue that it's not really the sole job of the SEPs – the Summary of Economic Projections – to provide a forecast. But what you get out of them is more than just a forecast. You get a hint of the committee's reaction function. That if data are above or below certain thresholds on growth, inflation, and unemplyment, then expect our policy path to look different. So, is there a way that he could review the communication strategy, tamp down the elements that are, say, a pure forecast, but keep the items that communicate to the market what a reaction function is? That's where I think a review committee could be useful in reforming or revamping what they do. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. In terms of the things that are really the purview of the committee, can you walk us through what those are in the context of Chair Warsh coming in having to ultimately make decisions on monetary policy – both interest rate policy as well as balance sheet policy? What are the purview of the committee itself? Michael Gapen: Yeah. The two main tools of monetary policy, in this case interest rate policy and balance sheet policy, is both of those are under the purview of the Federal Open Market Committee. So, to change interest rates, to reduce the size of the balance sheet, to change the rollover rate, to buy assets, to sell assets – all of that is an FOMC decision. There are subcomponents of that world where the board can make certain decisions. Now, the Fed views communication broadly as a tool, but in this case, communication is not an FOMC decision. The evolution of the communication strategy grew kind of organically out of '08, '09. Chairman Bernanke kind of started that process. It continued through, through Yellen. And that's been more of what I'll call a consensus operation, but there's no formal vote. So, the chair has a lot of control over how the Fed communicates, how often it communicates. But the policy decisions are from the FOMC. Matthew Hornbach: I'm often asked about this idea that less communication may end up affecting the bond market in certain ways. And typically, the concern amongst investors is that with less communication from the Fed – whether it be the chair or whether it be from the committee as a whole through the Summary of Economic Projections and its interest rate dot plot – there's concern amongst investors that removing that type of guidance would raise bond yields, essentially through the term premium component of the term structure. And the way that we think about it is probably in this environment where interest rates have already been inching higher, and investors are concerned about the hiking cycle that may eventuate, it probably would raise term premia initially. But from a more medium-term perspective, the way I think about it is that, you know, term premia can be positive, it can also be negative. And if we have less forward guidance, I would generally expect that term premium component to be more volatile than it has been in the past. Not necessarily just in the upward direction. But it could also be in the downward direction if the macro environment ends up changing in some way. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I could see in the current context, the inflation surprises have been to the upside, so less communication may mean more term premium. But we went through almost a decade after '08, '09, where most of those surprises were to the downside. So, you can imagine that it could be a symmetric story rather than an asymmetric one. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. Well, thanks Mike. That's very interesting, and thanks for taking the time to talk ahead of this upcoming FOMC meeting. I'm looking forward to our next discussion around the following FOMC meeting. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.
Dan Nathan and Guy Adami break down a historic market week, headlined by SpaceX's blockbuster IPO and Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. Elon priced the deal himself at $135, and the stock popped to a ~$2.2 trillion valuation—instantly the 6th most valuable company in the world. The guys dig into whether the numbers actually add up, walking through Morningstar's $63 fair value, Jim Chanos's bearish note on xAI's financials, and what a 110x sales multiple means for anyone buying the pop. They also preview Warsh's "less is more" approach to Fed communication and what a quieter central bank means for volatility ahead. Then Dan is joined by VC Ann Bordetsky, for an "Okay, Computer." segment on the private-market side of the story: the looming Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs, OpenAI's rumored token price war, the compute crunch constraining AI demand, and why the CFO may now be the most powerful seat at any AI company. Articles Referenced OpenAI Considers Drastic Price Cuts, Anticipating War for Users With Anthropic (WSJ) Everyone hates frontier AI labs, says Palantir boss (The Register) "VCs behaving badly" (Axios) —FOLLOW USYouTube: @RiskReversalMediaInstagram: @riskreversalmediaTwitter: @RiskReversalLinkedIn: RiskReversal MediaThe financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal.Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
In this episode of Money Moves, we unpack a volatile week in the markets driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices. With the OECD slashing its global growth forecast due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz , inflation and upcoming CPI data remain the primary catalysts for stock market movement. We explore the probability of a market correction versus continued runway, analyzing how the AI boom and the upcoming SpaceX IPO are impacting tech sector rotations. The crypto market is also facing serious headwinds, testing critical support levels as Bitcoin dips below $60,000. We discuss the fallout of Michael Saylor's unexpected decision to sell Bitcoin, the long-term threat of quantum computing to the network, and why active development on blockchains like Ethereum and Solana might offer better long-term potential. Plus, we cover the upcoming FOMC meeting and debate whether the new Fed Chair will pause or cut interest rates.Connect & Take Action:Wealth Intelligence Brief: Text "WIB" to 844-447-1555 to get Matty's free macro data, real estate intel, and crypto signals delivered to your inbox 3 times a week.Imagos Income Fund: Text "INCOME" or "DEALS" to 844-447-1555 to learn more about Matty A's private debt fund targeting 10% fixed returns paid out monthly.
Economist Bob Murphy joins us for a potpourri episode that begins with a discussion of what we can expect Kevin Warsh to do. Sponsors: Persist SEO - https://INeedSEO.help Tom Woods Mastermind Guest's Website: Infineo Guest's Twitter: @BobMurphyEcon Show notes for Ep. 2767 The Tom Woods Show is produced by Podsworth Media. Check out the Podsworth App: Use code WOODS50 for 50% off your first order at Podsworth.com to clean up your voice recordings, sound like a pro, and also support the Tom Woods Show! My full Podsworth ad read BEFORE & AFTER processing: https://youtu.be/tIlZWkm8Syk
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