Podcasts about fed chair

Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/4yUosr7 David Bahnsen reviews a “bizarre” July in which long-term yields rose, the Iran ceasefire/MOU collapsed, semiconductors fell sharply, and the yen hit multi-decade lows—yet the S&P 500 finished flat with improved breadth—and notes a strong early-August rally led by mega-cap tech while oil fell and energy dipped. He highlights massive hyperscaler capital expenditures and the key market questions around ROI, timing, financing, and systemic exposure. Bahnsen discusses shifting Iran headlines, policy items including the Todd Blanche AG nomination, the low odds of the Save Act and another reconciliation bill, Michigan's Senate primary dynamics, and a multi-state lawsuit over Section 301 tariff rationale. He covers Q2 real GDP at 1.5%, stronger July ISM manufacturing, elevated mortgage rates, Fed chair Warsh and balance-sheet effects, Treasury's reported yen buying, and midstream/MLP performance. 00:00 Welcome and Setup 00:23 July Market Recap 02:22 Monday Rally Snapshot 03:04 Big Tech Capex Questions 05:03 Iran Headlines and Oil 05:39 Washington Policy Update 07:50 GDP and ISM Readouts 09:01 Rates and Housing Impact 09:49 Fed Chair and Yen Move 12:45 Energy and Midstream Returns 13:10 Wrap Up and Next Episode 13:39 Disclosures and Disclaimers Links mentioned in this episode: DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com

In this week's stock market outlook, Matt breaks down the technical battle facing the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, reviews the biggest winners and losers of earnings season, and grades Kevin Warsh's performance as Federal Reserve Chair following the latest Fed meeting. The bulls reclaimed an important trend line, but the broader trend still needs confirmation. Matt identifies the resistance levels required for a legitimate breakout, the support zones traders must defend, and the signals coming from RSI and MACD heading into the new trading week. Earnings growth has been exceptional, but the market has not rewarded every company that beat expectations. Matt reviews the best and worst reports of the season, separates true operating strength from headline distortions, and explains what the results mean for technology and the broader market. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady following a contentious meeting. Matt breaks down the decision, the dissents, Kevin Warsh's communication strategy, and whether the new Fed Chair has earned a passing grade so far. • The S&P 500 breakout test and key market levels • Earnings season growth, market reactions, and major surprises • The strongest and weakest earnings reports • The Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision • Kevin Warsh's first report card as Fed Chair • Precision Trader and the upcoming Master Trader series

From a massive balance sheet to the way the Fed communicates, Fed Chair's Kevin Warsh's new task forces will take a comprehensive look at U.S. monetary policy. Macroeconomist Joe Santos weighs in on the complicated work of reform now before the Fed.

Saying Goodbye to JCD. The first test of the Fed Chair – with a miserable outcome. Some eye popping moves. An update on the meniscus repair. And our guest this week – Christoper Whalen – Publisher of The Institutional Risk Analyst  NEW! DOWNLOAD THE AI GENERATED SHOW NOTES Christopher Whalen is one of America’s best-known independent banking analysts and financial historians. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors and publisher of The Institutional Risk Analyst, where he analyzes banks, credit markets, housing finance, and financial regulation. Chris has spent decades studying the U.S. financial system from both the public and private sectors and is the author of Inflated: Money, Debt and the American Dream. His market commentary is widely followed because he’s willing to challenge conventional thinking—and often does so well before consensus catches up. Chris recently became a brand ambassador for Monetary Metals, a company whose approach to making physical gold a productive asset aligns with views he’s held for years about the role of gold in a portfolio.  Follow @rcwhalen Check this out and find out more at: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/ Follow @andrewhorowitz Looking for style diversification? More information on the TDI Managed Growth Strategy – HERE Stocks mentioned in this episode: (MSFT), (TLT), (META), (INTC), (AMZN)

July 30, 2026; 8pm: Tonight, Trump threatens to pull his own Attorney General nominee as Republicans try to shut down his slush fund for good. Plus, what happens when the world's richest man is also its most notorious racist. And Stephanie Ruhle on the market reaction to Donald Trump's new Fed Chair. Want more of Chris? Download and follow his podcast, “Why Is This Happening? The Chris Hayes podcast” wherever you get your podcasts.To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Andrew and Rudyard open the show by examining the competing priorities confronting Prime Minister Carney's government. On one hand is the immediate geopolitical imperative: reducing Canada's dependence on a U.S. trading partner that President Trump has shown a willingness to weaponize, making export diversification an urgent national priority. On the other is the growing threat of climate change, underscored by devastating wildfires in Canada and across Europe. Carney appears to have concluded that geopolitical security must come first, pushing climate policy down the agenda. But can he do so without alienating a significant portion of the Liberal coalition, for whom climate action remains a defining issue? In the second half of the show, Andrew and Rudyard turn to new U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's first significant decision: keeping interest rates unchanged for a seventh consecutive month. Markets reacted sharply, with investors selling off 30-year Treasury bonds and pushing yields to a 19-year high. While former Fed Chair Jerome Powell won praise for defending the Fed's independence in the face of pressure from President Trump, Warsh's decision has reinforced critics' fears that he is too closely aligned with the White House. Has the Federal Reserve begun to sacrifice its independence—or is Wall Street overreacting?Become a Munk Donor ($50 annually) to get 72-hour advanced access to the full length editions of Friday Focus and Munk Dialogues. Go to www.munkdebates.com to sign up. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

The big things you need to know:First, valuation opportunity is opening up in the US equity market from a variety of perspectives.Second, in the aftermath of Wednesday's Fed meeting, we highlight how the stock market tends to experience choppy performance in the first few months under a new Fed Chair.Third, other things that jump out in our updates this week include the return of high EPS quality outperformance as a factor in both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000, the modest uptick in stock market optimism in the Conference Board consumer survey that was out this week, and what we're watching on the midterms (which we continue to see as a risk factor in the months ahead).Fourth, we've gone through our monthly refresh of the models that feed into our 12-month S&P 500 price target and are sticking with our 8,150 forecast, though we continue to believe that the path for stocks will not be a linear one.

Markets start to question Fed credibility, fiscal issues stay in focus for the UK, while Japan's monetary and FX policy come into the spotlight. We discuss the Fed Chair's mixed messages and preview next week's labour market release. In our special UK segment, we reflect on the BoE's "dovish" hold and discuss fiscal plans under the new PM. In Asia, the BOJ and JPY intervention are in focus, and we also look ahead to the RBI and regional CPI data ahead. Chapters: US: 02:49 Europe: 13:00, Japan: 25:19, Rest of Asia: 30:08.

Those Long-Term Chip Deals May Not Be as Secure as Investors Are Led to Believe When you listen to memory chip companies like Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron Technology discuss their businesses, they often make it sound like customer contracts—some extending as long as five years—are essentially set in stone. Unfortunately, that's not entirely true. Yes, these companies have long-term agreements in place, but contracts in this industry are often renegotiated when market conditions change. If demand for memory chips weakens significantly, chip manufacturers have a strong incentive to work with their customers rather than strictly enforce every contractual commitment. The reason is simple: preserving long-term customer relationships is often far more valuable than maximizing short-term revenue. Imagine a customer that suddenly doesn't need as many chips because its own sales have slowed. If a supplier forces that customer to accept unwanted inventory, those chips may simply sit in a warehouse until demand recovers. By the time the customer needs additional chips, it may choose to reduce future orders or move business to a competitor that proved to be more flexible during difficult times. Competitors are always looking for opportunities to gain market share. If one supplier refuses to work with its customers, another is usually willing to offer better pricing or more favorable terms. Losing a major customer over a rigid interpretation of a contract can cost far more in future profits than making temporary concessions during a downturn. This isn't just theory and it has happened before. During the COVID-era, many long-term agreements were adjusted as demand shifted. Rather than forcing customers to take products they no longer needed, suppliers often renegotiated delivery schedules and purchasing commitments to preserve long-term partnerships. The same principle applies across many industries. Companies frequently modify or delay large commercial agreements when business conditions change. While contracts provide a framework, successful businesses understand that maintaining trust with key customers is often more important than enforcing every clause to the letter. Investors should remember that a signed contract does not necessarily guarantee future revenue will be recognized exactly as originally planned. Management teams often emphasize the value of their long-term agreements during earnings calls, but those agreements can evolve if market conditions deteriorate. At the end of the day, great businesses understand that customer relationships are built over years but can be damaged in a matter of weeks. In many cases, giving a customer flexibility during a downturn is a much better investment than insisting on strict contract enforcement. That's why investors should view long-term chip contracts as valuable, but not invincible.   Why Index Investing Could Leave You Disappointed Long Term I often hear people say, "Just buy the S&P 500 and forget about it. You'll be fine." While that sounds simple, investing is rarely that easy. Many investors don't fully understand how an index works or why it has performed so well in recent years. The S&P 500 has been driven largely by a handful of technology and AI companies. By blindly investing in the index, many people are simply participating in a momentum strategy without realizing it. Very little thought is given to what those 500 companies are actually worth. There is no effort to trim positions that have become extremely expensive or overly concentrated. As valuations climb, the index simply gives those companies an even larger weighting, leaving investors with greater exposure to the stocks that have already gone up the most. Some people respond by saying, "I won't put everything in the S&P 500. I'll diversify into other index funds." But once you go down that road, investing becomes much more complicated and you'll likely underperform the S&P 500. Should you own an international index? A European index? A bond index? A growth index? A value index? Small-cap funds? REITs? There are hundreds of ETFs and mutual funds to choose from. Now you have another challenge: deciding how much to allocate to each one. When your portfolio declines will you understand why? More importantly, will you know what to do next? Many investors don't, and that uncertainty often leads to emotional decisions at exactly the wrong time. This is why I prefer managing a portfolio of individual value-oriented stocks, combined with money market funds and selected real estate investment trusts (REITs). That approach still provides diversification, but I understand what each investment is worth and why I own it. In my view, that's a much better foundation than owning five or ten different index funds without truly understanding what's inside them or how they're valued. Another common argument for index investing is lower fees. While fees certainly matter, they shouldn't be the only factor. The number that ultimately matters is your total return after all fees and expenses. A lower fee doesn't automatically translate into better long-term performance. If you own index funds, take some time to look under the hood. Do you really understand what you own? Do you know which sectors dominate your portfolio, which companies make up the largest holdings, and how expensive those businesses are today? If the answer is no, don't assume you'll be comfortable when the market experiences its next major decline. Investors who don't understand what they own are often the first to panic, and that confusion can lead to costly investment mistakes.   The U.S. economy is still in much better shape than many people think. This week brought three major events for investors: GDP, PCE inflation, and the Federal Reserve meeting. While the headlines may have sounded mixed, the underlying data still paints a healthy consumer. Second-quarter GDP grew at a 1.5% annualized rate, below economists' expectations. At first glance, that may seem disappointing. But when you look under the hood, the economy continues to show resilience. Consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, increased 3.2% after a weak first quarter where it only climbed 0.5%. That tells me the American consumer is still in good shape, and that's one of the biggest reasons the economy continues to avoid the recession that so many have been predicting. Major drags on the headline GDP figure included government spending, which reduced growth by 0.14 percentage points, as well as the more volatile components of trade and the change in private inventories, which subtracted 1.01 and 0.67 percentage points, respectively. Inflation remains the biggest challenge. The Fed's preferred inflation measure, core PCE, increased 3.3% over the past year. While that's an improvement from where we've been, it's still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. I continue to believe inflation will remain sticky until energy prices become more stable. Energy impacts transportation, manufacturing, and virtually every supply chain, so it's difficult to see inflation falling sustainably while energy costs remain volatile. The Fed, as expected, left interest rates unchanged. What stood out wasn't the decision, it was the growing disagreement among policymakers. The 3 dissents that voted for a 25-basis point increase highlight just how uncertain the economic outlook remains. When inflation is still elevated but the economy continues to grow, there isn't an easy policy answer. One thing I do like so far is Kevin Warsh's changes at the Fed. I like the simplified statement, the encouragement of differing viewpoints, and rather than projecting absolute confidence in economic forecasts, he has acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding them. That's a refreshing change. Economic forecasting has never been an exact science, and I would rather have a Fed Chair who recognizes the limitations of those projections than one who pretends they are precise. What's surprising is how quickly some of the talking heads have claimed Warsh already has a credibility problem. I don't see it that way. Credibility isn't about making bold predictions that later need to be revised. It's about being honest about what we know, what we don't know, and allowing incoming data to guide policy. The takeaway for investors is simple: don't let one headline drive your investment decisions. The economy continues to expand, consumers are still spending, inflation remains stubborn, and the Fed is navigating a difficult policy environment. Looking beneath the surface is often where you'll find the real story.   Leverage Is Fuel... Until It Becomes the Fire The last few weeks have been a reminder that leverage looks like a wonderful tool on the way up... but it's a devastating one on the way down. FINRA's new margin rules have effectively replaced the 25-year-old Pattern Day Trader rule, allowing traders with as little as $2,000 to make unlimited day trades using intraday margin. While this opens the door for more retail participation, it also means more investors have access to leverage, something that has historically magnified both gains and losses. This is a big problem considering FINRA margin debt climbed 49% year over year to another record in June of roughly $1.5 trillion. This comes as investor net credit balances have fallen to a record negative $1.06 trillion. In other words, investors collectively owe more on margin than they have sitting in cash accounts. For comparison's sake, in March 2000 this measure stood at a negative $0.13 trillion. That's an aggressive setup if volatility returns. We also saw this past week the spectacular collapse of Leopold Aschenbrenner's AI-focused hedge fund, Situational Awareness, which shows what can happen when conviction is paired with excessive leverage. The near 25-year-old Aschenbrenner was painted as a genius with strong credentials like being Columbia University's valedictorian at age 19. His fund was launched in July 2024 and he had no experience managing money before that. Before this month's decline the fund had gains of more than 1,000% since inception. The fund used tons of leverage with some saying as much as 400% to build massive positions in AI and semiconductor stocks while shorting stocks in the software space like Adobe. The problem is when names like Coreweave, Nebius, and Sandisk fell more than 50% from their highs and the software stocks rallied, margin calls forced the liquidation of most of its public equity portfolio. The result was staggering considering the fund peaked at above $45 billion in assets and with the selloff they plunged to around $10 billion. This forced a fire sale of assets at a discount to Ken Griffin's Citadel. Some speculate that the forced selling may have helped create the bottom. Once one of the market's largest leveraged sellers had finished liquidating, the selling pressure eased and many AI stocks staged a sharp rebound. Others believe the selling is not over as Michael Burry reportedly used Thursday's powerful rally as an opportunity to increase several of his bearish positions in Micron, Nvidia and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF. Whether he's ultimately right or wrong remains to be seen, but it's a reminder that some experienced investors still believe AI-related valuations and leverage remain stretched.   Here Come the Robots! Robots have been making their way into manufacturing for decades. The first industrial robotic arm, called Unimate, was installed in 1961 on the assembly line at a General Motors plant in Trenton, New Jersey. But today's robots are very different. They're no longer just stationary robotic arms bolted to the factory floor, they're starting to look and move like humans. That reality is beginning to make workers uneasy. At a Hyundai Motor plant in South Korea, employees have gone on a partial strike, with concerns over automation playing a role. Hyundai recently unveiled its humanoid robot, Atlas, which stands 6'2", weighs about 200 pounds, can lift up to 110 pounds, and can continuously carry nearly 70 pounds. It's easy to understand why workers are wondering what these machines could mean for their jobs. South Korea is already the world leader in industrial robot adoption, with approximately 1,220 industrial robots for every 10,000 manufacturing employees. By comparison, the United States has around 307 robots per 10,000 workers. One statistic that surprised me was China, which currently has only about 166 industrial robots per 10,000 manufacturing workers. If Elon Musk has anything to say about it, those numbers could change dramatically over the next several years. Tesla is aggressively developing its humanoid robot, Optimus, with the goal of having it help build vehicles in its factories before long. If that vision becomes reality, other manufacturers will almost certainly follow. The idea of humanoid robots can be unsettling, but the transition is likely to be slower than many people expect. Industry forecasts suggest that global annual production of humanoid robots could reach roughly 1.2 million units by 2030. While that sounds like a large number, it's still a tiny fraction of the global workforce. So, we're probably still a few years away from living like The Jetsons. If you're not familiar with the cartoon, it debuted in September 1962 and imagined a future filled with flying cars and household robots. I guess I will have to wait a few more years to get a maid like the Jetsons had named Rosie the robot.   Financial Planning: Tax Relief Coming for Older Home Sellers? The federal home sale capital gain exclusion has remained unchanged since 1997, allowing homeowners to exclude up to $250,000 of gain if single or $500,000 if married filing jointly when selling a primary residence. With home values rising significantly over the past three decades, particularly in high-cost areas like California, many long-time homeowners now face substantial capital gains taxes when downsizing. A new proposal, the Nest Egg Protection Act, would increase the exclusion to $1 million for homeowners age 65 and older who have owned and lived in their home for at least 25 years. This would allow more seniors to keep the equity they've built over a lifetime. In addition to providing tax relief, the proposal could encourage more older homeowners to sell, increasing housing inventory and making homeownership more attainable for first-time buyers. While the legislation has not yet been enacted and homeowners should continue planning under current law, the proposal reflects a growing recognition that the existing exclusion no longer aligns with today's housing market.   Companies Discussed: International Business Machines Corporation (Ticker: IBM)

-- On the Show: -- Hilary Shae, a licensed and certified speech-language pathologist with 12 years of experience, joins us to discuss analyzes Donald Trump's communication decline -- Republican lawmakers berate Dr. Anthony Fauci in Congress by shouting obscenities and claiming he lacks Fifth Amendment rights -- Tommy Tuberville accuses Dr. Anthony Fauci of killing millions while Peter Navarro claims the doctor blocked hydroxychloroquine -- Senator Ron Johnson claims during a hearing that vaccine injuries cause mass suicide and labels the shots experimental gene therapy -- Rep. Yassamin Ansari calls to investigate Barron Trump over alleged ties to Andrew Tate while autism rumors recall past legal threats -- Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh rejects Trump's demands for rate cuts by keeping interest rates unchanged due to elevated inflation -- White House aides usher journalists out of the Oval Office after Trump compares grass to humans and attacks windmills -- On the Bonus Show: Todd Blanche's confirmation is in doubt, Elon Musk's xAI sues Minnesota over a law banning "nudification" technology, a US government map of Africa mislabels every country, and much more...

Today, a look at the market's concern that this Fed isn't determined to get ahead of inflation and the impact on US treasury yields, which spooked market sentiment broadly in the US yesterday. Elsewhere, Microsoft's strong earnings report after the close is doing what it can to stabilize risk sentiment, even as the market soured further on Meta on its earnings call. Today and tomorrow feel high stakes with the negative shift in sentiment after the important FOMC pivot point, and Apple and Amazon are reporting after the close today. This and more on today's pod, which was hosted by Saxo Global Head of Macro Strategy John J. Hardy. Links WSJ Fed reporter (no longer whisperer?) Nick Timiraos with a good quick take on the contradictory messages and takeaways from this FOMC meeting. Are the memory prices just too darn high? FTAlphaville takes a look. ArsTechnica reports that Anthropic's Mythos is finding bugs faster than Microsoft can fix them. Mike Green with a forensic investigation of the pump in semiconductor stocks in Q2 and to what degree leveraged ETFs were to blame (Behind paywall, but can be read for free as a one-off).  About twice per week (in normal times, hopefully soon to resume), you will find links discussed on the podcast and a chart-of-the-day over at the John J. Hardy substack. Read daily in-depth market updates from the Saxo Market Call and the Saxo Strategy Team here. Please reach out to us at marketcall@saxobank.com for feedback and questions. Click here to open an account with Saxo. Intro music by AShamaluevMusic DISCLAIMER This content is marketing material. Trading financial instruments carries risks. Always ensure that you understand these risks before trading. This material does not contain investment advice or an encouragement to invest in a particular manner. Historic performance is not a guarantee of future results. The instrument(s) referenced in this content may be issued by a partner, from whom Saxo Bank A/S receives promotional fees, payment or retrocessions. While Saxo may receive compensation from these partnerships, all content is created with the aim of providing clients with valuable information and options.

Semis on the upswing after a rough couple of sessions, but should investors trust the bounce in the momentum trade after what BTIG calls the largest/fastest crash in modern history? JPMorgan's Michael Feroli slides his rate hike timeline from the second half of 2027 to December after Kevin Warsh evades some reporter questions in his second news conference as Fed Chair.  Plus, why the war in Iran could last through the midterms.  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

July 30, 2026 ~ David Sowerby, Managing Director and portfolio manager at Ancora Bloomfield Hills discusses the latest with the federal interest rate. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

There is a new sheriff in town at the Fed and fireworks could be on the horizon. Hear Chad P. Wilson explain some changes that might be coming and how that will affect your finances in today's episode of Money Matters.  This episode was recorded on July 29, 2026 by Chad P. Wilson of Foundation Bank.

Bloomberg’s Tom Keene, Jon Ferro and Lisa Abramowicz discuss remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh following the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision on a special edition of Bloomberg Surveillance. Warsh insisted policymakers’ decision to leave interest rates unchanged wasn’t a sign of inertia at the central bank, which he reiterated is committed to tackling inflation. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack and Minneapolis Fed chief Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of raising rates by a quarter percentage point. The fractured vote signaled growing conviction among some policymakers that higher rates are needed to curb resurgent price pressures. The committee’s post-meeting statement was otherwise identical to the one issued following their June meeting, with officials repeating their pledge to “deliver price stability.”See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Terry Savage, nationally-syndicated money columnist, joins Lisa Dent to discuss the Dow being up 600 points and whether or not the Fed will raise interest rates on Wednesday, July 29th. Later, she addresses listener’s financial questions.

Chris and Amy visit with One Private Wealth Partner and Managing Director Dave Simons. He says to expect interest rates to remain the same when announced tomorrow. 'Tread lightly,' in adding more money to the 'high flying' tech stocks warns Simons of a bubble. 'I see the economy overall just humming along,' says Simons.

Chris and Amy welcome Dave Simons ahead of the new Fed Chair's rate announcement this week; Amy has decided she's not allowing her phone to be tracked anymore; where are the Cardinals going this season?; Lebron James plans to commute by helicopter when he plays for the 76ers while living in New York. 'He's the only billionaire,' in the NBA playing right now, points out Rongey.

Who exactly is the Fed Chair, and what do they actually do? It's one of the most powerful jobs in the financial world, but also one of the most misunderstood. Today on BullCast, we're breaking down the history of the Federal Reserve, the role of its Chair, how the position has evolved, and why a few carefully chosen words can move markets around the world. From interest rates and inflation to employment and economic growth, we are explaining why the Fed Chair is so influential and why everyone listens when they speak. The List: The Famous Faces on US Currency Visit us online: www.bullcastpodcast.com Produced by Cameron Spann | Powered by Pickler Wealth Advisors Sound effects obtained from https://www.zapsplat.com

New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh just admitted the Fed itself is the reason homebuyers keep getting whipsawed. Boom, then bust. One generation gets a once-in-a-lifetime shot at a first home; the next gets locked out. Tonight Jeb & Josh break down what he actually said and what it means for mortgage rates and the housing market.Start Here

In 1914 the Fed ran on 40 people and no computers. Today it takes 23,000. Fire them all and let AI do it... it can't do any worse.Tonight's episode is sponsored by Rockwell Automation. Download their 11th Annual State of Smart Manufacturing Report at https://rok.auto/sosmThis episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh delivered his first congressional testimony as Fed Chair, and Peter Schiff breaks down a hearing where everyone discussed inflation while misdefining the term and ignoring their own role in causing it. June CPI came in at -0.4% versus the expected -0.1%, dropping year-over-year inflation to 3.5% — but the entire decline came from a temporary oil price drop that is already reversing as the Iran war reignites and oil climbs back 20% in July. Bond yields tell the real story: the 30-year is back near 5.1% and the 10-year near 4.6%, erasing nearly the entire post-CPI rally.Schiff's biggest revelation from the hearing: the Fed employs 23,000 people to do a job that required just 40 when it opened in 1914 — with no computers — and argues the entire institution could be replaced by a single AI or abolished outright. He dismantles Warsh's claim of "regime change" at the Fed as being as fake as regime change in Iran, exposes the redefinition of "price stability" to mean prices that rise just slowly enough that people stop complaining, and shows how the 2% target was always a lie invented to justify inflation. He covers Warsh admitting inflation is a tax while planning to keep levying it, the court throwing out Trump's self-negotiated IRS settlement that granted his family immunity, and the AI CapEx bubble turning tech's biggest cash generators into massive borrowers that will break the bond market.Chapters:00:00 AI Spending Arms Race01:08 Markets Brace for CPI06:07 CPI Surprise and Gold Whipsaw07:34 Oil Driven Inflation Mirage11:40 What Inflation Really Means14:11 Congress and Fed Share Blame17:58 Fed Headcount Shock22:32 Two Percent Target Myth27:05 Regime Change and Price Stability33:40 Day One Recap Continues34:09 Grow My X Account35:13 Congress Inflation Theater36:06 Trump Grift Claims37:30 IRS Settlement Outrage39:51 Rates Versus Balance Sheet41:08 Who Wins Low Rates43:46 Fed And Black Workers49:09 AI Bubble Warning51:15 Hyperscalers Debt Spiral55:38 Bond Market Breaking Point58:16 Strategy Stock Dilution01:00:30 Bitcoin Levels And Regrets01:01:30 Subscribe And Sign OffFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #AIBubbleOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

LISTEN and SUBSCRIBE on:Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/watchdog-on-wall-street-with-chris-markowski/id570687608 Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/2PtgPvJvqc2gkpGIkNMR5i WATCH and SUBSCRIBE on:https://www.youtube.com/@WatchdogOnWallstreet/featured  Chris reacts to the new Federal Reserve chair's sharp criticism of past inflation policy and his pledge to restore price stability. He explains why inflation remains deeply embedded, why rising prices continue to strain American families despite moderating CPI data, and why meaningful Fed reform could be a step in the right direction.

Our CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist Mike Wilson discusses where investors may find opportunity beyond the AI sector and risks that could slow market gains.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief U.S. Equity Strategist. Today on the podcast I'll be discussing our broadening thesis and the near-term risks to monitor. It's Tuesday, July 14th at 11:30 am in New York. So, let's get after it. The broadening trade is now playing out. It's showing up in stock prices, relative performance and earnings revisions. It's also making investors question the sustainability of the most crowded areas of the market, and consider other near-term risks. I first made the broadening call late last year based on my view that the economy had entered a new expansion after completing the rolling recession in April of 2025. In a new expansion, earnings growth tends to be much better than expected because revenue growth returns to companies that have already become more cost efficient. That's classic operating leverage. The market began to anticipate that dynamic late last year, but then the Iran conflict interrupted the move. Oil surged, rate-cut expectations disappeared, and investors crowded back into the most obvious AI capex beneficiaries led by semiconductors and memory, in particular. Since mid May, that interruption has faded with oil prices falling sharply and the broadening trade has begun to work again. Importantly, the market is not abandoning AI. It is simply rotating within AI and beyond AI. And that distinction matters. Semiconductors have had a historic run, supported by earnings revisions. But even great stories get exhausted in the short term. When earnings revisions breadth is pressing against historical highs and the trade becomes one of the most crowded areas of the market, the bar for upside gets very high. At that point, the issue is not whether the story is good. The issue is whether the rate of change can keep improving. That is a very different question. The underperformance of the hyperscalers was probably the first warning sign. Semis depend on hyperscaler capex. So when the spenders start lagging the beneficiaries, that divergence usually resolves one way or another. And now we're starting to see it. Meta's decision to sell excess capacity to outside customers may not mean the AI capex cycle is over. But it does tell you the market is beginning to ask harder questions about the path and pace of that spending. Credit spreads and stock prices of these hyperscalers provide the feedback loop to managements that maybe they should curtail the pace of spend. We've had multiple corrections inside this AI cycle already. This looks like another one – not the end of the cycle, but a reset. That reset is what gives the rest of the market room to work. Our preferred ways to express the broadening remain Consumer Discretionary Goods, Transports, and Biotech. These are not the areas investors have been excited about. In fact, positioning and sentiment remain subdued. But that's exactly why I like them. The risks to the story in the short term are two-fold. First, uncertainty about the full re-opening of the strait remains high, with pivots on both sides. This is keeping oil prices volatile in the short term even if the primary trend remains lower. Second, interest rate volatility is picking up again with the entire curve shifting higher in both nominal and real terms. If this doesn't stabilize, it will have a negative impact on stocks both at the index level and even for stocks that should benefit from our broadening call. With the inflation data coming in today softer than expected, this should reduce some of the recent upward pressure on rates. However, the new Fed Chair and board remain resolute to make sure inflation doesn't rear its head again. In the end, dealing with this risk up front is a good thing in my view even if it means uncertainty for markets. Bottom line, equity markets have been consolidating and correcting for the past several months. This is the result of the peak rate of change in earnings revisions and a reaction function shift at the Fed to focus more on the inflation mandate than growth. With the recent rollover in semiconductors, heavy supply of equity and credit issuance, and a transition of leadership at the Fed, expect more volatility and corrective activity in stocks before the next leg of the bull market resumes. Don't chase momentum. Instead, add to risk on down days to areas that will benefit from a broadening in the economy and earnings growth. Thanks for tuning in; I hope you found it informative and useful. Let us know what you think by leaving us a review. And if you find Thoughts on the Market worthwhile, tell a friend or colleague to try it out!

The new Federal Reserve Chairman has officially stepped into the spotlight. In today's episode, we break down Kevin Warsh's first appearance before Congress and what his testimony may reveal about the future of U.S. monetary policy. Every word from a Fed Chair is scrutinized by Wall Street, and this hearing offered investors their first real look at Warsh's priorities, concerns, and vision for the economy. The big question is: Is Kevin Warsh preparing to change the direction of the Federal Reserve… or simply continue the path already in place? We'll discuss: The key takeaways from Warsh's congressional testimony His views on inflation, employment, and economic growth What his comments may signal for future interest rate decisions How the bond market, stock market, and U.S. dollar are reacting The sectors that could benefit—or struggle—under his leadership We'll also explore why congressional testimony often moves markets more than the actual Fed meeting itself. Traders aren't just listening for policy changes—they're searching for subtle clues about what may come next. Because in today's markets... Expectations often move prices long before policy does. Whether you're trading stocks, bonds, futures, or cryptocurrencies, understanding the Federal Reserve remains one of the most important pieces of market analysis. Listen now:

In our news wrap Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh told the House Financial Services Committee that inflation will be "a thing of the past," the CDC says there are now nearly 7,000 confirmed or suspected cases of cyclosporiasis nationwide and New York is now the first state to issue a moratorium on building new large data centers. PBS News is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy

Stellar economic analysts Dean Baker, Paul Krugman, and Stephanie Ruhle join Harry for his periodic deep dive into the ways Trump is reshaping the U.S. economy. The panel weighs the immediate and long-term economic effects of Trump's on-again, off-again war with Iran. Next, they take stock of Trump's record-breaking self-enrichment, and of how the Supreme Court has opened the door to more chaos and self-dealing. They close with a look at Kevin Warsh, Trump's hand-picked new Fed Chair, tasked with keeping a fragile economy on track. Mentioned in this episode:  Dean's column:  https://cepr.net/series/dean-bakers-beat-the-press/Paul's Substack:  https://paulkrugman.substack.com/Stephanie's new show:  https://www.ms.now/money-power-politics Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Danielle DiMartino Booth calls the first FOMC minutes under Kevin Warsh "clean" as most Fed members expressed clear stances on energy's inflationary impact. She discusses where she sees those inflationary pressures hitting Americans the most, from the grocery store to travel costs. As Danielle explains, it likely will lead big banks to lend less money to consumers. She also talks about Warsh's "less is more" approach as Fed Chair. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

Liz Peek. Revamping Federal Reserve Communications: No More Dot Plots? Liz Peek discusses new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's shift away from "forward guidance" and "dot plots". She argues this pragmatic approach requires investors to analyze raw economic data rather than Fed algorithms. Despite past recession fears, the economy remains stable with low unemployment at 4.2%. (1)1920s

Futures moved off lows after the U.S. made retaliation strikes against Iran following an attack on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Kevin Hincks urges investors to brace for an "unsteady" trading session as crude oil prices creep higher. It also makes Kevin Warsh's job as Fed Chair more difficult with inflation once again becoming a larger concern. ======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day. Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/ About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

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Charles is joined by Hennessy & Warsh Asset Management CIO Kevin Maughan to discuss why the new Fed Chair will rewrite inflation rules, how a slowing economy could pause rate hikes, and which AI infrastructure and biotech stocks to buy now. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Last month, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first interest rate decision and press conference … but he didn't talk much about maximum employment. How much does Kevin Warsh care about the jobs side of the Fed's dual mandate?Fact checking by Sierra Juarez.Your Next Listen — Are we in a new era of permanently higher prices?Connect with The Indicator — Sign up for The Indicator's brand new newsletter— Buy the Planet Money book— Find our socials, YouTube and more!— For sponsor-free episodes, subscribe to NPR+ See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Alan Greenspan wrote a 1966 essay arguing gold-backed money was essential to freedom, that fiat currency would destroy savings and fund endless government expansion — then became Fed Chair, took rates to 1%, started quantitative easing, and did every single thing he said was evil. Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight use Greenspan's death as a lens on where his successors have left us: $40 trillion in official debt, $350 trillion in global sovereign debt, and a Fed with no Volcker option because the interest payments alone would collapse the Treasury before inflation was ever tamed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-david-knight-show--2653468/support.

Alan Greenspan wrote a 1966 essay arguing gold-backed money was essential to freedom, that fiat currency would destroy savings and fund endless government expansion — then became Fed Chair, took rates to 1%, started quantitative easing, and did every single thing he said was evil. Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold and David Knight use Greenspan's death as a lens on where his successors have left us: $40 trillion in official debt, $350 trillion in global sovereign debt, and a Fed with no Volcker option because the interest payments alone would collapse the Treasury before inflation was ever tamed. Money should have intrinsic value AND transactional privacy: Go to https://davidknight.gold/ for great deals on physical gold/silver For 10% off Gerald Celente's prescient Trends Journal, go to https://trendsjournal.com/ and enter the code “KNIGHT” For high quality made in America products go to HomeSteadProducts.shop and use promo code “Knight” for 10% off your purchases Find out more about the show and where you can watch it at TheDavidKnightShow.com If you would like to support the show and our family please consider subscribing monthly here: SubscribeStar https://www.subscribestar.com/the-david-knight-show Or you can send a donation throughMail: David Knight POB 994 Kodak, TN 37764Zelle: @DavidKnightShow@protonmail.comCash App at: $davidknightshowBTC to: bc1qkuec29hkuye4xse9unh7nptvu3y9qmv24vanh7Become a supporter of this podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/the-real-david-knight-show--5282736/support.

Andrew, Ben, and Tom discuss the ISM Manufacturing report showing improving new orders and a shift toward hiring while prices moderate, alongside commentary highlighting Middle East pressure on CapEx and stabilizing supply chains, OpenAI's proposal to give the US government a 5% equity stake in the company as part of a broader industry arrangement potentially including Anthropic, Google, and Meta, and Kevin Warsh's remarks that inflation risks have eased since he took over as Fed Chair.Join our live YouTube stream Monday through Friday at 8:30 AM EST:http://www.youtube.com/@TheMorningMarketBriefingPlease see disclosures:https://www.narwhal.com/disclosure

Discover why Kevin Warsh, Fed Chair, sent an important message and what it was. Are you on track for financial freedom...or not? Financial freedom is a combination of money, compounding and time (my McT Formula). How well you invest can make the biggest difference to your financial freedom and lifestyle. If you invested well for the long-term, what a difference it would make because the difference between investing $100k and earning 5 percent or 10 percent on your money over 30 years, is the difference between it growing to $432,194 or $1,744,940, an increase of over $1.3 million dollars. Your compounding rate, and how well you invest, matters!  INVESTING IS WHAT THE BE WEALTHY & SMART VIP EXPERIENCE IS ALL ABOUT - Invest in digital assets and stock ETFs for potential high compounding rates - Receive an Asset Allocation model with ticker symbols and what % to invest -Monthly LIVE investment webinars with Linda 10 months per year, with Q & A -Private VIP Facebook group with daily community interaction -Weekly investment commentary -Extra educational wealth classes available -Pay once, have lifetime access! NO recurring membership fees. -US and foreign investors are welcome -No minimum $ amount to invest -Tech Team available for digital assets (for hire per hour) For a limited time, enjoy a 50% savings on my private investing group, the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Pay once and enjoy lifetime access without any additional recurring fees. Pay once and you're done! Invest with our successful community for years to come. Enter "SAVE50" to save 50% here: http://tinyurl.com/InvestingVIP Or set up a complimentary conversation to answer your questions about the Be Wealthy & Smart VIP Experience. Request an appointment to talk with Linda here: https://tinyurl.com/TalkWithLinda (yes, you talk to Linda!). SUBSCRIBE TO BE WEALTHY & SMART Click Here to Subscribe Via iTunes Click Here to Subscribe Via Stitcher on an Android Device Click Here to Subscribe Via RSS Feed LINDA'S WEALTH BOOKS 1. Get my book, "3 Steps to Quantum Wealth: The Wealth Heiress' Guide to Financial Freedom by Investing in Cryptocurrencies". 2. Get my book, "You're Already a Wealth Heiress, Now Think and Act Like One: 6 Practical Steps to Make It a Reality Now!" Men love it too! After all, you are Wealth Heirs. :) International buyers (if you live outside of the US) get my book here. WANT MORE FROM LINDA? Check out her programs. Join her on Instagram. WEALTH LIBRARY OF PODCASTS Listen to the full wealth library of podcasts from the beginning.  SPECIAL DEALS #Ad Apply for a Gemini credit card and get FREE XRP back (or any crypto you choose) when you use the card. Charge $3000 in first 90 days and earn $200 in crypto rewards when you use this link to apply and are approved: https://tinyurl.com/geminixrp This is a credit card, NOT a debit card. There are great rewards. Set your choice to EARN FREE XRP! #Ad Protect yourself online with a Virtual Private Network (VPN). Get 3 MONTHS FREE when you sign up for a NORD VPN plan here.  #Ad To safely and securely store crypto, I recommend using a Tangem wallet. Get a 10% discount when you purchase here. #Ad If you are looking to simplify your crypto tax reporting, use Koinly. It is highly recommended and so easy for tax reporting. You can save $20, click here. Be Wealthy & Smart,™ is a personal finance show with self-made millionaire Linda P. Jones, America's Wealth Mentor.™ Learn simple steps that make a big difference to your financial freedom.  (This post contains affiliate links. If you click on a link and make a purchase, I may receive a commission. There is no additional cost to you.)  

Plus: Meta stock has its best day since January following reports that the company is building a cloud business to sell its excess AI computing power. And General Mills shares rise after unveiling its turnaround plan. Imani Moise hosts. Sign up for WSJ's free What's News newsletter. An artificial-intelligence tool assisted in the making of this episode by creating summaries that were based on Wall Street Journal reporting and reviewed and adapted by an editor. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

A new Fed Chair could change investing for the next decade.Kevin Warsh is calling for a fundamental shift in how the Federal Reserve approaches interest rates, inflation, and economic policy. If he's successful, the investing playbook that's defined the past 20 years may no longer apply.In this episode, Bob Fraser, Ben Fraser, and Ellis Hammond break down what Warsh's vision could mean for stocks, bonds, real estate, inflation, the yield curve, and your portfolio. Learn how investors can prepare for a new era of higher rates, market-driven capitalism, and long-term investing.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://investlikeabillionaire.org/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://aspenfunds.us/

Advisors and co-hosts Zachary Bouck, CIMA®, CFP®, and Austyn Garcia, recap our June 2026 portfolio meeting, discussing what happened in the markets over the last month, our approach to traditional asset allocation (cash, fixed-income, equities, and alternatives), and our general outlook for the next 6-12 months in the markets.  Visit www.denverwealthmanagement.com to schedule a free consultation. 

While the market chases AI stocks and IPOs at 90x sales, Simon Erickson is looking in the opposite direction, at CME Group (NASDAQ:CME), the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, a business that doesn't care if markets go up or down. It just needs them to move. CME Group sits at the center of global derivatives trading across six asset classes, interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, energy, agriculture, and metals, capturing the bid-ask spread on every contract that clears through its platform. Q1 2026 delivered all-time records in both revenue (up 14% to nearly $2 billion) and average daily volume (36.2 million contracts/day, up 22%), with record volumes across all six product lines simultaneously.0:00 - Introduction and Overview of CME Group as a business3:31 - Review of CME's six product classes 6:41 - Review of Q1 2026 Results (from our 7investing Community Forum)8:42 - Why Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair will be important for CME Group10:48 - New Retail product lines: Crypto, e-mini futures, and even compute pricing14:18 - A look at CME Group's current valuation and why the stock has been selling off16:19 - Why we recently upgraded CME Group to a "Strong Buy" conviction rating 18:32 - Q&A with audience questions + a review of CME Group's capital allocation policiesThe business model is exceptional: near-zero variable costs as volumes scale, massive network effects, and a 70% operating margin in Q1 2026, up 250 basis points year over year. With geopolitical uncertainty (Iran oil prices, Russia/Eastern Europe conflict, China tariff tensions) and a brand new Federal Reserve Chairman in Kevin Walsh navigating rate policy, Simon believes 2026 and 2027 will bring more volatility, not less. That's directly in CME Group's favor. The company is also launching new products including Bitcoin volatility futures, e-mini S&P 500 and NASDAQ options at one-tenth standard contract size (opening the door to retail investors), and a first-of-its-kind AI compute futures product in partnership with Silicon Data Partner.CME Group is also returning serious capital to shareholders: a longstanding variable dividend policy that pays out 50% of annual earnings, plus a $3 billion share repurchase authorization, $500 million of which was deployed just last quarter, with $2.5 billion still available. CEO Terry Duffy is transitioning out after a decade at the helm, handing off to 20-year company veteran Lynn Fitzpatrick (currently President and CFO), in what Simon views as seamless succession planning. This is a company that knows exactly what it is and executes flawlessly.7investing upgraded CME Group to strong buy conviction in November 2024, the stock returned 51% by March 2026, nearly tripling the S&P 500 return over the same period. They've just upgraded it to strong buy again in June 2026. The stock has pulled back significantly from its March highs, and valuation multiples on price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-free-cash-flow are all at five-year lows. If you want a stock that hedges against market chaos rather than suffering through it, CME Group is worth a serious look.Discuss CME Group with us in our 7investing Community Forum! https://discord.com/invite/PT9ZQqdXXSStocks & Companies Mentioned:CME Group (NASDAQ:CME)Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) — teased for upcoming Friday episodeKalshi — private (prediction markets competitor)FMX Exchange — private (interest rate futures competitor)FanDuel — private (CME prediction markets partner)Silicon Data Partner — private (CME compute futures partner)#CMEGroup #CME #StockAnalysis #ValueInvesting #DividendStocks #HiddenGems #MarketVolatility #DerivativesTrading #InterestRates #Bitcoin #CryptoFutures #InvestingIn2026 #UndervaluedStocks #GrowthStocks #7investing #Simonerickson

Markets rarely move in straight lines, but periods of uncertainty often create the biggest opportunities for systematic investors. Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Mark Rzepczynski examine why geopolitical shocks, changing Federal Reserve leadership and shifting market regimes continue to shape trend following performance. They explore why only a handful of markets often drive returns, how diversification really works when correlations suddenly rise, and why managed futures have historically stood apart during periods of elevated volatility. Along the way, they discuss the future of monetary policy, economic data, AI driven productivity and what investors should watch as the second half of the year unfolds.-----50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE-----Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.IT's TRUE ? – most CIO's read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.comAnd please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.Follow Mark on Twitter.Episode TimeStamps:00:00 - Boston's World Cup beer shortage and remembering Alan Greenspan05:14 - Greenspan's legacy, interest rates and lessons from 199410:45 - Trend following performance and the markets driving returns14:14 - Why diversification matters and how many markets are enough20:47 - Looking ahead to the second half of the year23:10 - What defines a market regime change27:49 - The new Fed Chair and five major policy priorities39:12 - Why monetary policy changes matter for trend followers48:28 - Research into hedge fund strategies and risk regimes56:06 - Why managed futures stand out during periods of market stress01:02:30 - Portfolio construction and the role of managed futures in uncertain marketsCopyright © 2025 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved----PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score One of the things I'm really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here3. Other Resources that can help youAnd if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click HerePrivacy PolicyDisclaimer

Mary welcomes back David Holland to get his take on the thing of which most of us have little to no working understanding: the global economy. On the recent death of internationally known Fed Chair Alan Greenspan at age 100, we look at the world he presided over, versus the partisanship and digital challenges 20 years later. Yet one thing remains constant: God is the one Who will allow the Money Masters of the Universe to pull the rug and the plug and lead us into the Revelation version of a global economy. Who is the new Fed Chair and what does he want with our money? We talk about tech bubbles, national bubbles, booms and busts while navigating warnings of the sky falling on us all. What is the Yen Carry Trade? Empires and kingdoms have come and gone and crumbled at some point so we know change is on the way regardless. Always an informative hour with David.   Stand Up For The Truth Videos: https://rumble.com/user/CTRNOnline & https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgQQSvKiMcglId7oGc5c46A

Alan Greenspan's Legacy and the New Fed Chair. Guest: Elizabeth Peek. This segment reflects on the passing of Alan Greenspan and the transition to Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair. Peek highlights Warsh's goal to reform data collection and move away from forecasting, favoring real-time data over the traditional, often confusing, communication styles of his predecessors like Greenspan. 119202

In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh signaled restraint in providing guidance. Our Global Head of Fixed Income Research Andrew Sheets looks at possible impacts of the new approach.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Andrew Sheets: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Andrew Sheets, Global Head of Fixed Income Research at Morgan Stanley. Today, why the Fed could do less than expected and why that could still lead to more volatility. It's Wednesday, June 24th at 2pm in London. Last week saw the first meeting of the Federal Reserve under its new chair, Kevin Warsh. It didn't disappoint. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections saw significantly higher inflation than the last iteration in March, and in turn, a much stronger case to raise interest rates, perhaps multiple times. The Fed's statement, which laid out its views around the economy and its reasons for action, was changed dramatically – and also significantly shortened. We don't think the Fed will ultimately follow through on the interest rate rises that were flagged in this meeting and will choose instead to remain on hold this year. But we think this scenario of them staying on hold can still lead to more volatility. I'll try to address each side of this apparent contradiction. First, the Fed is clearly worried about inflation, which has been elevated for a considerable period of time. But working through the numbers, Morgan Stanley economists forecast lower inflation over the rest of this year than the Fed now expects. And so, while we think it would be entirely reasonable for the Fed to expect to raise interest rates based on the high inflation that they have penciled in, we think they could reach a different conclusion if our lower estimates are ultimately correct. Supporting our case, at least in our view, is that energy prices have fallen significantly in recent weeks since some of these Fed forecasts were set, as markets have moved to believe not only would existing oil production resume in the Persian Gulf, but Iran could increase exports materially under its new agreement with the United States. That would greatly reduce a source of underlying inflationary pressure in the U.S., Europe, and Asia. With inflation set to come in lower than feared, we think the Fed's most natural option will be to remain on hold this year rather than raise rates. But if the Fed's not doing anything, how exactly is that going to drive volatility? Our answer to that question lies in another thing that it's not going to be doing – providing as much information about where it thinks monetary policy is going next. Indeed, since the financial crisis, the Fed often went out of its way to give so-called forward guidance and significant detail about when and how they may change policy in the future. Proponents saw this as a way to avoid surprises and smooth the transmission of this policy, but critics saw it as limiting and potentially giving markets a false sense of certainty. The new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one of these critics and has promised to give a lot less forward guidance. That lack of handholding by the Fed about what they might do next is a big change. Coupled with the potential for a smaller Fed balance sheet and big questions around the path of inflation and the impact of AI and productivity, every data point now has more potential to shift the market's thinking. My strategy colleagues think that this will lead to higher volatility in two-year interest rates, as well as more volatility in currencies. I'd also note that here in the UK, this paradox is not nearly as puzzling. Here, the Bank of England's target rate has been the same level since mid-December. But that hasn't stopped the UK two-year bond yield from trading in an over 100 basis point range. Thank you, as always, for your time. If you find Thoughts on the Market useful, let us know by leaving a review wherever you listen. And also tell a friend or colleague about us today.

At the start of 2026, many economists expected growth to slow.Since then, we've had tariffs, inflation concerns, conflict in the Middle East, oil volatility, and a new Fed Chair. Yet the economy keeps growing.In this episode, Bob Fraser and Ellis Hammond sit down with Belinda Román, Associate Professor of Economics at St. Mary's University, to discuss what's changed, what's surprised her, and whether the economy is proving more resilient than investors expected.We cover tariffs, inflation, consumer spending, interest rates, AI-driven productivity, recession risks, and what investors should be watching in the second half of 2026.Have more questions, or want more resources like a tax calculator? Go to ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://investlikeabillionaire.org/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠  to learn more about our community. Check out Ben & Bob's company and invest along at ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://aspenfunds.us/

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan has died at 100 years old, leaving an enormous legacy for the American financial system. Economist Mohamed El-Erian remembers this titan of American economics, including his historic career as Fed Chair for five consecutive terms under four U.S. Presidents. Author Walter Isaacson shares Greenspan stories of his own, as well as his expectations for a SpaceX-Tesla merger. Plus, CNBC's Eamon Javers reports on the latest round of talks between the U.S. and Iran, and “Toy Story 5” lassoed 2026's biggest opening weekend at the box office.    Eamon Javers - 3:36 Mohamed El-Erian - 18:05 Walter Isaacson - 28:53   In this episode: Eamon Javers, @eamonjavers Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Katie Kramer, @Kramer_Katie Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Warsh set up 5 task forces to study inflation. You only study a problem when you don't want to solve it. Same game, new players.This episode is sponsored by InvestingPRO. Get 55% off + an EXTRA 15% off with my code PETERSCHIFF at checkout! Sign up: https://www.investing-referral.com/peterschiff/This episode is also sponsored by Ethos. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/gold. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting delivered a hawkish surprise — rates held at 3.5-3.75% unanimously, forward guidance was eliminated, and dot plots now project two rate hikes by year-end. But Peter Schiff argues it's all theater. Instead of actually fighting inflation, Warsh announced five new task forces to "study" the Fed's balance sheet, communications, data sources, jobs, and inflation itself — the classic government move of establishing committees to avoid solving problems.Warsh acknowledged inflation is a choice, and Schiff agrees — the Fed has chosen inflation over the alternative of crashing markets and forcing fiscal responsibility since the Greenspan era. The question is whether Warsh will break that tradition when push comes to shove. Schiff says no: Trump won't tolerate a bear market, the Treasury Secretary is having weekly breakfasts with the Fed Chair, and the political pressure to print will overwhelm any hawkish posturing. Meanwhile, Strategy's death spiral accelerated with Stretch falling to $89 — wiping out the entire annual yield in one month — while Saylor continues diluting common shareholders to fund dividends he can't sustain. SpaceX soared past $3 trillion on a 4% float, sucking speculative capital away from crypto and accelerating Bitcoin's decline to $64,000.Chapters:00:00 Warsh Shocks Markets00:45 Rates Hold Steady01:26 Trump Versus Powell03:42 Shortest Fed Statement06:01 Ample Reserves Contradiction07:13 Five Task Forces Announced32:18 Term Insurance Not Investing33:40 Fed Task Forces Skepticism39:56 Inflation Tax And Politics44:37 SpaceX IPO Mania47:23 Bitcoin Strategy Death Spiral55:37 Gold Silver Buy The Dip56:29 Same Fed Same Game Wrap Up58:29 Closing And Follow MeFollow @peterschiffX: https://twitter.com/peterschiffInstagram: https://instagram.com/peterschiffTikTok: https://tiktok.com/@peterschiffofficialFacebook: https://facebook.com/peterschiff#PeterSchiffShow #FederalReserve #FOMCOur Sponsors:* Check out Chilipad and use my code sleep.me/GOLD for a great deal: https://sleep.me* Check out DBJourney and use my code Schiff15 for a great deal: https://dbjourney.com* Check out Fast Growing Trees and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://www.fast-growing-trees.com* Check out Plaud AI and use my code GOLD for a great deal: https://plaud.ai* Check out Quince and use my code quince.com/gold for a great deal: https://www.quince.com* Check out TruDiagnostic and use my code GOLD20 for a great deal: https://www.trudiagnostic.comPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

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Arthur Hayes on his HYPE position, AI bubble, and the new Fed Chair. On today's Markets Outlook, BitMEX Co-Founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why all roads still lead to money printing, how long the AI bubble has left, and why he has zero regrets about publicly selling his HYPE position. Plus, his reaction to Michael Saylor's Bitcoin stress test. - Timecodes: 00:00 - Arthur Hayes Joins Markets Outlook 01:30 - Arthur's Reaction to Michael Saylor News and Strategy Business Model 02:59 - When Does the AI Bubble Burst? 03:56 - New Fed Chair Warsh's Task Forces & What It Really Means 06:58 - Uniswap & Standard Chartered's $100 Price Target 08:06 - Responding to the HYPE Selloff Drama 09:24 - HYPE vs. SOL: Which Wins? - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://youtu.be/75LrBmSScvY - To get marketing moving news delivered daily, download CoinDesk's mobile app: https://linktr.ee/coindeskapp. - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Our Global Head of Macro Strategy Matthew Hornbach and our Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen discuss the signals investors will be seeking from the new Fed Chair leading his first monetary policy meeting and possible implications for markets.Read more insights from Morgan Stanley.----- Transcript -----Matthew Hornbach: Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Matthew Hornbach, Global Head of Macro Strategy. Michael Gapen: And I'm Michael Gapen, Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist. Matthew Hornbach: Today, markets are watching the Fed's next move. Are rate cuts delayed or could hikes possibly be back on the table? It's Tuesday, June 16th at 8:30am in New York. So, Mike, the FOMC meeting today and tomorrow is likely more about reading the signal rather than announcing a rate change. Markets will focus on inflation forecasts, the unemployment rate, and the growth outlook. But, of course, this will also be the first meeting after Powell ended his term as Fed chair in May. All eyes will be on Warsh. So, what are your thoughts before the press conference? Michael Gapen: A lot of thoughts, actually, before the press conference. I do think it's basically a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be changing its easing bias in favor of more neutral language. Seems clear the committee wants to do that, probably wanted to do that at the last meeting. And it does fit, I think, Warsh's preference for less communication, less guidance from the Fed. So, I do think that's largely a foregone conclusion, although obviously we need to see whether that happens and whether there are dissents. I think, as you noted, the forecasts will be important, but I think what's really important from my perspective – more than the modal outlook or the baseline that participants have – is their assessment of the balance of risks around the dual mandate. And I say that because obviously a year ago, the Fed eased policy when it felt that there were downside risks to the labor market that outweighed upside risk to inflation. This year, that seems to have flipped, where the labor market appears to have stabilized, labor demand has picked up a little bit, and it is inflation that looks persistent. So, if the Fed cut last year on downside risk to the labor market, I think the concern for markets is – maybe they hike in 2027 or later this year based on a changing balance of risks in the direction of firmer inflation. So, for me, that's really kind of key. In addition to what they're saying about growth inflation in the labor market, what is their assessment of the distribution of risks around that modal forecast? Matthew Hornbach: There's definitely going to be a lot of investor interest in the press conference itself. What exactly may result from the opening statement. Presumably, Chair Warsh will give an opening statement. How are you thinking about the back and forth between Warsh and the reporters that are asking questions? Are there certain questions that you would anticipate him getting asked, and how do you think he might respond? Michael Gapen: Well, I think certainly that if we are correct, and I think markets are correct, that they do change forward guidance in the statement to more neutral bias, that certainly opens up the possibility that the Fed will be hiking. So, the obvious first question is – is this the first step in the direction of hiking? What would get you to raise rates? Should investors be thinking about that? Is that the course of travel here? Now Warsh may not want to answer that if he, kind of, is consistent in the view of saying the Fed shouldn't give a lot of forward guidance. So maybe get some popcorn, Matt. It could be a situation where he gets asked questions about the future path of monetary policy, and maybe he decides, ‘I don't want to take that up right now. The data will tell us, and we'll do what's necessary.' And second, I think as you're noting and getting to about the structure of the press conference and what he might say is; past Federal Reserve chairs, let's say from Bernanke on, have found the press conference – the press conference statement, the questions, the format, the venue – as a way to control the narrative. And I think what will be interesting is to see whether Warsh has the same design. The risk, of course, is perhaps that he doesn't and pulls back the amount of communication guidance that he wants to give. And then we'll see what fills that vacuum. What narrative fills that vacuum? And is he okay with that? So, it may be that there's a new sheriff in town, and he chooses that there's some questions I'll answer, others I won't. And so, I do think that interaction with the press corps will be interesting. Hard to know exactly where it's going to come down until we see it in real time. Matthew Hornbach: During Chair Warsh's testimony to Congress, he alluded to the idea that potentially the Fed may not do a press conference at every meeting going forward. How are you thinking about that in the context of this idea that if you leave a void, somebody else may fill it? Michael Gapen: Obviously, the Fed used to not have press conferences at all, and then they moved to having them quarterly or four times a year. And they found that that was a little suboptimal because it became harder to make decisions and changes in the off-press conference meetings [be]cause they didn't have a venue to explain what they were doing and what they were thinking. So, they migrated to eight meetings. So, I think it's kind of twofold. Yes, it would mean that they speak less and therefore maybe their word doesn't carry as much weight. Or there's longer gaps for other narratives to come in. Like, do we lose forward guidance from the Fed, and is that replaced by forward guidance from the Treasury, for example? How do markets weigh those signals? And but then also I would say would that ultimately box in the Fed to only make decisions on quarterly meetings rather than eight times a year? Would the chair, for example… Let's assume that at some point in the future, the Fed decides it does want to raise interest rates. Historically, the Fed does not surprise on rate hikes. It's perfectly willing to surprise on rate cuts, when it comes to that. But if there is a world where the Fed does decide, ‘Hey, we do need to raise rates, but we don't have a press conference to explain our view.' Would they take the decision at that meeting or would they wait? So, does it reduce their opportunity set? Matthew Hornbach: I think this issue would certainly be an interesting one for investors to think about, which is why I'm bringing it up with you. Because to the extent that the plan going forward is to hold a press conference only once a quarter, as you alluded to – investors may interpret that as the Fed not being willing to raise rates at every single meeting going forward, which would certainly affect the pricing in the very short end of the interest rate market. But more broadly, on communication strategy, do you think that that would be something that Chair Warsh would take upon himself? Or do you think it would be more likely for him to organize a committee to discuss communications? Michael Gapen: I think the right thing to do… Again, our job is to say what we think he will do – not what he should do. But I'm going to answer this one in the question of what I think he should do. I do think he should create, say, a subcommittee on communication and reevaluate what the Fed does. [Be]ause as chair, he has almost unilateral control over communications. But obviously you work within a committee, the committee operates with consensus. So, I do think it would make sense to, kind of, work through a committee and try and get as much consensus as you can. And, here, what I would hope where they, kind of, ultimately land is – Warsh has been critical in the past of the Fed's forecast, the forecast being incorrect, providing maybe incorrect forward guidance. And I would argue that it's not really the sole job of the SEPs – the Summary of Economic Projections – to provide a forecast. But what you get out of them is more than just a forecast. You get a hint of the committee's reaction function. That if data are above or below certain thresholds on growth, inflation, and unemplyment, then expect our policy path to look different. So, is there a way that he could review the communication strategy, tamp down the elements that are, say, a pure forecast, but keep the items that communicate to the market what a reaction function is? That's where I think a review committee could be useful in reforming or revamping what they do. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. In terms of the things that are really the purview of the committee, can you walk us through what those are in the context of Chair Warsh coming in having to ultimately make decisions on monetary policy – both interest rate policy as well as balance sheet policy? What are the purview of the committee itself? Michael Gapen: Yeah. The two main tools of monetary policy, in this case interest rate policy and balance sheet policy, is both of those are under the purview of the Federal Open Market Committee. So, to change interest rates, to reduce the size of the balance sheet, to change the rollover rate, to buy assets, to sell assets – all of that is an FOMC decision. There are subcomponents of that world where the board can make certain decisions. Now, the Fed views communication broadly as a tool, but in this case, communication is not an FOMC decision. The evolution of the communication strategy grew kind of organically out of '08, '09. Chairman Bernanke kind of started that process. It continued through, through Yellen. And that's been more of what I'll call a consensus operation, but there's no formal vote. So, the chair has a lot of control over how the Fed communicates, how often it communicates. But the policy decisions are from the FOMC. Matthew Hornbach: I'm often asked about this idea that less communication may end up affecting the bond market in certain ways. And typically, the concern amongst investors is that with less communication from the Fed – whether it be the chair or whether it be from the committee as a whole through the Summary of Economic Projections and its interest rate dot plot – there's concern amongst investors that removing that type of guidance would raise bond yields, essentially through the term premium component of the term structure. And the way that we think about it is probably in this environment where interest rates have already been inching higher, and investors are concerned about the hiking cycle that may eventuate, it probably would raise term premia initially. But from a more medium-term perspective, the way I think about it is that, you know, term premia can be positive, it can also be negative. And if we have less forward guidance, I would generally expect that term premium component to be more volatile than it has been in the past. Not necessarily just in the upward direction. But it could also be in the downward direction if the macro environment ends up changing in some way. Michael Gapen: Yeah, I could see in the current context, the inflation surprises have been to the upside, so less communication may mean more term premium. But we went through almost a decade after '08, '09, where most of those surprises were to the downside. So, you can imagine that it could be a symmetric story rather than an asymmetric one. Matthew Hornbach: Absolutely. Well, thanks Mike. That's very interesting, and thanks for taking the time to talk ahead of this upcoming FOMC meeting. I'm looking forward to our next discussion around the following FOMC meeting. Michael Gapen: Great speaking with you, Matt. Matthew Hornbach: And thanks for listening. If you enjoy Thoughts on the Market, please leave us a review wherever you listen and share the podcast with a friend or colleague today.