The Joseph Carlson Show

AI agents are moving from simply answering questions to actually doing things for us — shopping, booking hotels, making reservations, comparing prices, managing transactions, and eventually negotiating with other machines on our behalf.That shift could have enormous consequences for some of the world's biggest companies.In this episode, I look at the rise of agentic commerce and a simple framework for determining which businesses are most exposed: How much of their value comes from removing friction, and how much scarce infrastructure or capability remains once that friction disappears?We break down what this could mean for Booking Holdings, DoorDash, Intuit, Google, Amazon, Uber, Duolingo, Microsoft, Meta, Visa, Mastercard, ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix, Texas Roadhouse, and more.Some businesses may lose their direct relationship with the customer. Others could become even more valuable as AI agents increase transactions, computing demand, and the need for trusted infrastructure.The question may no longer be, “Can AI automate this business?”It may be: “What happens when an AI agent becomes the customer's gatekeeper?”0:00 The Agentic Commerce Thesis2:03 Meta Muse: The First Real Consumer Agent5:43 How AI Agents Could Reshape Business7:26 The Friction Framework: Who Is Most Exposed?11:57 The Four Stages of the Agent Economy18:28 Booking Holdings, DoorDash & Intuit27:12 Google, Amazon, Uber & Duolingo32:15 Microsoft, Meta, Visa & Mastercard36:50 ASML, S&P Global, Costco, Netflix & Texas Roadhouse41:14 Which Companies Are Most Exposed to AI Agents?

0:00 The AI Slowdown Battle4:05 Why Meta Benefits Most6:49 How Meta Wins Either Way12:41 Meta's New AI Assistant15:41 Zuckerberg's Track Record20:43 Dario's Real Incentives29:21 The Problem With “Coordinated Pacing”31:46 Fail of the Week: Hunter Biden's Meme Coin

Jacob Coxon viral X post is causing an AI hysteria. We look through the timeline in this episode.

00:00 What's Happneing In The Stock Market17:31 Microsoft to Reveal Cloud Growth19:45 S&P Global To Sell Capital IQ21:52 Google Avoids Breakup 23:00 Fail Of The Week: Teleprompter Operator

Why the biggest bear, Ed Zitron, belives AI is a con.

00:00 Meta Strategic Victory In Lawsuit18:30 Microsoft Is Hiding From Investors21:23 Netflix May Offer Peacock Through It's Service26:15 Win Of The Week: SharkNinja's Innovation

00:00 Buy Prices For Every Stock26:18 Uber Hit Piece38:50 Fail Of The Week: Gene Munster

00:00 How To Have An Edge In Investing15:02 Sharing My Investment Journey19:15 Top Pick 1: Meta23:50 Top Pick 2: Uber25:50 Top Pick 3: S&P Global27:30 Duolingo DAU Update29:20 Fail Of The Week: Amazon Drone Delivery30:45 New Carlson Family Member

00:00 Super Investor Portfolio Update23:00 Meta Lawsuit Gets Worse

In this episode we review Bill Ackmans new buys.

00:00 Overview01:24 IMAX08:33 Reddit11:39 MELI13:20 Adobe16:28 Nike17:50 Rollins19:40 Copart23:04 Nebius24:58 Cava26:35 Fail Of The Week: Elisson vs California

00:00 Introduction01:00 A History Of Picking Stocks06:30 Uber11:50 Meta18:02 Netflix20:15 Semianalysis Gemini Has Lost23:48 Fail Of The Week: Keith Rabois

00:00 Intro02:30 AWS Has Changed The Market11:26 FICO Earnings14:24 Uber & DoorDash19:00 Duolingo22:00 Texas Roadhouse23:00 Tom Lee 2027 Prediction

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have followed a pattern of their CAPEX having initial skepticism eventually followed by acceptance. This will happen with Meta as well. In each case there were 'reasons' that the stock deserved to be down. With Google it was that ChatGPT would disrupt search, Microsoft it was Claude would disrupt the software bundle and the backlog was too concentrated, Amazon it was large CAPEX spend with no flagship model. With Meta it's that they have no public cloud business. Like all the others, investors will eventually be convinced with Meta as well.

00:00 Introduction03:01 PayPal Stock08:33 S&P Global Earnings12:36 Visa and Mastercard17:16 FICO and Robinhood19:38 Meta and Microsoft Earnings27:05 The Three Layers of AI37:05 ASML and China's Chip Machines39:11 AI, Hiring, and the Future of Jobs41:52 Fail Of The Week: Paramount's Warner Bros. Merger Problem

00:00 Introduction02:00 ASML Earnings Reaction10:00 Netflix Earnings Tomorrow11:50 JP Morgan & The Banks12:20 Buffett Reveals He Bought GoogleFail Of The Week: Kalshi & New York City

00:00 The Growth of Momentum Investing19:00 How Buffett Comapres To Terry Smith29:00 Starbucks Is Building Their Own Software32:00 Fail Of The Week: AI Cheating In School

00:00 Market Dynamics & 9 Stocks28:36 Tom Lee On July Strength31:00 Fail Of The Week: Michael Saylor

00:00 Jeremy Grantham Predictions18:20 Zuckerberg Talks About Meta's Spend33:40 Fail Of The Week: Polen Capital Collapse

00:00 The AI Trade Is Cracking07:36 Netflix At 52 Week Low17:00 Meta Sell-Off Continues23:40 Fail Of The Week: JP Morgan Community Manager

00:00 Introduction02:00 The Market Is Focused on AI13:40 Why Uber & DoorDash25:00 Google's Stock Goes Down Today29:00 Fail Of The Week: Polymarket

Why Meta is my biggest single bet today.

00:00 Intro02:00 Portfolio Update10:00 SpaceX IPO Reaction22:39 Fail Of The Week: Anthropic Self-Inflicted Wounds

00:00 Intro02:00 11 Top Undervalued Stocks To Buy18:26 ASML's Dominance Continues25:00 Social Reckoning Movie Trailer

00:00 Overview02:00 The Market Is Getting More Volatile08:00 Steve Eisman's Bearish Take19:48 Meta Rumored Equity Raise22:00 Fail Of The Week: Sam Bankman-Fried

0:00 Intro02:00 Google's Strategic Reason For Record Dilution26:09 Tom Lee Explains Next 3 Year Bull Run19:00 YouTubers Are Taking Over Hollywood32:33 Fail Of The Week: Andrew Left Guilty Of Stock Market Manipulation

In a market obsessed with artificial intelligence, this episode follows the race to separate the real winners from the temporary hype.0:00 AI winners, losers, and the investing roadmap2:21 Phase 1: The AI scarcity boom5:31 Why today's AI winners may not stay winners7:00 ASML, Nvidia, and durable supply-chain advantages9:04 The danger of assuming cyclicals are no longer cyclical11:13 Phase 3: Hyperscalers take control16:09 Software stocks: AI disruption or rerating opportunity?20:06 How I'm positioning my portfolio23:13 Ferrari's EV and the risk to the brand27:29 Fail of the week: Colbert, late-night TV, and YouTube disruption

00:00 SpaceX Incredible IPO15:20 Nvidia's Amazing Earnings Report16:17 Why I'm Selling Intuit21:25 Fail Of The Week: Trevor Noah on Quarterly Reports

00:00 Episode Overview00:50 Chris Hohn Sells Microsoft and Buys Google08:54 Bill Ackman Buys Microsoft and Sells Google13:40 Dev Kantesaria Is Down -20% This Year17:00 Berkshire Sells a LOT of Holdings19:03 Terry Smith's Recent Performance Is Horrible21:40 Pat Dorsey Is Buying Uber23:30 Alta Rock Portfolio Bets Big On Amazon24:15 Brad Gersner Bets Big on AI25:00 Chuck Akre's Fund Will Struggle26:40 Fail Of The Week: Waymo

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google As An Example06:11 Amazon11:22 Uber15:20 DoorDash18:03 Shopify20:32 Meta24:58 Broadcom29:03 Mercado Libre31:50 Game Stop Rejection33:57 Fail Of The Week: Texas vs Netflix

00:00 Episode Overview01:20 Why Chris Hohn Is Selling17:48 Chris Hohn Has Been Wrong Before24:57 Texas Roadhouse Bull Case28:23 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Markets

00:00 Episode Overview01:45 The "Culture" Problem07:37 Brad Gerstner On AI Landscape15:22 Dario's vs Jensen21:20 Ackman On Zuckerberg31:05 Fail Of The Week: NY Mayor vs Ken Griffin

00:00 Episode Overview06:45 Meta10:10 Visa & Mastercard11:57 Microsoft13:52 Buffett on The Market Today18:59 Fail Of The Week: Ryan Cohen

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google Earnings19:58 Meta Earnings30:59 Amazon Earnings40:34 Fail Of The Week: Blue vs Red

00:00:00 - Intro & Qualtrim Overview00:03:17 - Tuesday Earnings (S&P Global, Spotify, Booking, & Robinhood)00:10:43 - The Big Tech "AI Layoff" Myth00:18:06 - Google & Microsoft Expectations00:23:50 - Amazon & Meta Growth Strategies00:27:36 - Apple's Financial Engineering00:28:47 - Elon vs. OpenAI & The Polymarket Fail

Tom Lee shares his view on why the market is set up for the best 12 to 18 months

00:00 Episode Overview03:53 Analysts Warn About The Market09:00 Meta Bear Case15:12 Salesforce & Adobe21:00 Netflix Earnings Reaction25:00 Fail Of The Week: The change-name AI Frenzy

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 The Market Recovery14:00 Netflix Earnings15:30 Amazon Buys Satellite Company16:28 Analysts Turn Bullish On Meta27:00 Jensen Says Amazon Is Lying37:00 Fail Of The Week: Allbirds Goes to AI39:45 New Qualtrim Feature

00:00 Episode Overview03:00 Portfolio Update10:11 Amazon Updated Analysis32:20 Meta Updated Analysis45:40 Fail Of The Week

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Stocks Are Going Crazy07:36 Sam Altman Criticisms13:08 Fail Of The Week: Follow-up 16:20 Responding To Comments

00:00 Episode Overview01:28 Qualtrim Plug02:20 Nike09:10 Booking Holdings12:48 Robinhood & American Express15:20 Intuit18:20 Jamie Dimon & Tom Lee22:25 Open AI and Anthropic IPO26:58 Fail Of The Week: Italy Court

00:00 Stocks Surge11:40 Buffett On The Market13:00 Fail Of The Week: Child Affordability Study21:57 Responding To Comments

00:00 Overview01:40 The Best Time To Buy Is now22:25 The Strategic Mistake Of Sora26:25 Fail Of The Week: Elizabeth Warren Complains About Netflix30:58 Responding To comments

00:00 Overview02:00 The Fall of FICO31:09 Meta $9 Trillion Market Cap Goal32:50 Fail Of The Week: Robots

00:00 Overview02:41 End Of The Metaverse18:37 Mark Zuckerberg Creating AI CEO21:47 Uber Invests In Rivian23:47 Project Hail Mary Success27:20 Costco CEO Eats Hot Dog29:28 Fail Of The Week: Marc Andreessen No Introspection

00:00 Overview02:00 Apple's Superior AI Strategy25:30 Intuit Is Doubling Buybacks27:00 Adobe Earnings32:05 Netflix Paid $600 For AI Company35:00 Fail Of The Week: SEC Quarterly Report

In this episode we review why I purchased, and continue to buy, Meta.

00:00 6 Compounding Machines On A Dip27:45 Tom Lee Predictions30:00 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Of AI Destruction

00:00 Overview02:00 Oil Goes Above $10025:30 Anthropic Sues Trump Administration30:20 Netflix Buys Ben Affleck AI Company34:43 Fail Of The Week: More CEO's Eat Their "product"

We value each stock based on historical valuation and future DCF.

00:00 Overview02:00 Steve Eisman & Tom Lee On War06:45 Netflix Walks Away From Warner Deal20:48 Duolingo Falls 20% After Earnings32:00 Fail Of The Week: McDonalds CEO