The Joseph Carlson Show

00:00 Intro02:30 AWS Has Changed The Market11:26 FICO Earnings14:24 Uber & DoorDash19:00 Duolingo22:00 Texas Roadhouse23:00 Tom Lee 2027 Prediction

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon have followed a pattern of their CAPEX having initial skepticism eventually followed by acceptance. This will happen with Meta as well. In each case there were 'reasons' that the stock deserved to be down. With Google it was that ChatGPT would disrupt search, Microsoft it was Claude would disrupt the software bundle and the backlog was too concentrated, Amazon it was large CAPEX spend with no flagship model. With Meta it's that they have no public cloud business. Like all the others, investors will eventually be convinced with Meta as well.

00:00 Introduction03:01 PayPal Stock08:33 S&P Global Earnings12:36 Visa and Mastercard17:16 FICO and Robinhood19:38 Meta and Microsoft Earnings27:05 The Three Layers of AI37:05 ASML and China's Chip Machines39:11 AI, Hiring, and the Future of Jobs41:52 Fail Of The Week: Paramount's Warner Bros. Merger Problem

00:00 Introduction02:00 ASML Earnings Reaction10:00 Netflix Earnings Tomorrow11:50 JP Morgan & The Banks12:20 Buffett Reveals He Bought GoogleFail Of The Week: Kalshi & New York City

00:00 The Growth of Momentum Investing19:00 How Buffett Comapres To Terry Smith29:00 Starbucks Is Building Their Own Software32:00 Fail Of The Week: AI Cheating In School

00:00 Market Dynamics & 9 Stocks28:36 Tom Lee On July Strength31:00 Fail Of The Week: Michael Saylor

00:00 Jeremy Grantham Predictions18:20 Zuckerberg Talks About Meta's Spend33:40 Fail Of The Week: Polen Capital Collapse

00:00 The AI Trade Is Cracking07:36 Netflix At 52 Week Low17:00 Meta Sell-Off Continues23:40 Fail Of The Week: JP Morgan Community Manager

00:00 Introduction02:00 The Market Is Focused on AI13:40 Why Uber & DoorDash25:00 Google's Stock Goes Down Today29:00 Fail Of The Week: Polymarket

Why Meta is my biggest single bet today.

00:00 Intro02:00 Portfolio Update10:00 SpaceX IPO Reaction22:39 Fail Of The Week: Anthropic Self-Inflicted Wounds

00:00 Intro02:00 11 Top Undervalued Stocks To Buy18:26 ASML's Dominance Continues25:00 Social Reckoning Movie Trailer

00:00 Overview02:00 The Market Is Getting More Volatile08:00 Steve Eisman's Bearish Take19:48 Meta Rumored Equity Raise22:00 Fail Of The Week: Sam Bankman-Fried

0:00 Intro02:00 Google's Strategic Reason For Record Dilution26:09 Tom Lee Explains Next 3 Year Bull Run19:00 YouTubers Are Taking Over Hollywood32:33 Fail Of The Week: Andrew Left Guilty Of Stock Market Manipulation

In a market obsessed with artificial intelligence, this episode follows the race to separate the real winners from the temporary hype.0:00 AI winners, losers, and the investing roadmap2:21 Phase 1: The AI scarcity boom5:31 Why today's AI winners may not stay winners7:00 ASML, Nvidia, and durable supply-chain advantages9:04 The danger of assuming cyclicals are no longer cyclical11:13 Phase 3: Hyperscalers take control16:09 Software stocks: AI disruption or rerating opportunity?20:06 How I'm positioning my portfolio23:13 Ferrari's EV and the risk to the brand27:29 Fail of the week: Colbert, late-night TV, and YouTube disruption

00:00 SpaceX Incredible IPO15:20 Nvidia's Amazing Earnings Report16:17 Why I'm Selling Intuit21:25 Fail Of The Week: Trevor Noah on Quarterly Reports

00:00 Episode Overview00:50 Chris Hohn Sells Microsoft and Buys Google08:54 Bill Ackman Buys Microsoft and Sells Google13:40 Dev Kantesaria Is Down -20% This Year17:00 Berkshire Sells a LOT of Holdings19:03 Terry Smith's Recent Performance Is Horrible21:40 Pat Dorsey Is Buying Uber23:30 Alta Rock Portfolio Bets Big On Amazon24:15 Brad Gersner Bets Big on AI25:00 Chuck Akre's Fund Will Struggle26:40 Fail Of The Week: Waymo

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google As An Example06:11 Amazon11:22 Uber15:20 DoorDash18:03 Shopify20:32 Meta24:58 Broadcom29:03 Mercado Libre31:50 Game Stop Rejection33:57 Fail Of The Week: Texas vs Netflix

00:00 Episode Overview01:20 Why Chris Hohn Is Selling17:48 Chris Hohn Has Been Wrong Before24:57 Texas Roadhouse Bull Case28:23 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Markets

00:00 Episode Overview01:45 The "Culture" Problem07:37 Brad Gerstner On AI Landscape15:22 Dario's vs Jensen21:20 Ackman On Zuckerberg31:05 Fail Of The Week: NY Mayor vs Ken Griffin

00:00 Episode Overview06:45 Meta10:10 Visa & Mastercard11:57 Microsoft13:52 Buffett on The Market Today18:59 Fail Of The Week: Ryan Cohen

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Google Earnings19:58 Meta Earnings30:59 Amazon Earnings40:34 Fail Of The Week: Blue vs Red

00:00:00 - Intro & Qualtrim Overview00:03:17 - Tuesday Earnings (S&P Global, Spotify, Booking, & Robinhood)00:10:43 - The Big Tech "AI Layoff" Myth00:18:06 - Google & Microsoft Expectations00:23:50 - Amazon & Meta Growth Strategies00:27:36 - Apple's Financial Engineering00:28:47 - Elon vs. OpenAI & The Polymarket Fail

Tom Lee shares his view on why the market is set up for the best 12 to 18 months

00:00 Episode Overview03:53 Analysts Warn About The Market09:00 Meta Bear Case15:12 Salesforce & Adobe21:00 Netflix Earnings Reaction25:00 Fail Of The Week: The change-name AI Frenzy

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 The Market Recovery14:00 Netflix Earnings15:30 Amazon Buys Satellite Company16:28 Analysts Turn Bullish On Meta27:00 Jensen Says Amazon Is Lying37:00 Fail Of The Week: Allbirds Goes to AI39:45 New Qualtrim Feature

00:00 Episode Overview03:00 Portfolio Update10:11 Amazon Updated Analysis32:20 Meta Updated Analysis45:40 Fail Of The Week

00:00 Episode Overview02:00 Stocks Are Going Crazy07:36 Sam Altman Criticisms13:08 Fail Of The Week: Follow-up 16:20 Responding To Comments

00:00 Episode Overview01:28 Qualtrim Plug02:20 Nike09:10 Booking Holdings12:48 Robinhood & American Express15:20 Intuit18:20 Jamie Dimon & Tom Lee22:25 Open AI and Anthropic IPO26:58 Fail Of The Week: Italy Court

00:00 Stocks Surge11:40 Buffett On The Market13:00 Fail Of The Week: Child Affordability Study21:57 Responding To Comments

00:00 Overview01:40 The Best Time To Buy Is now22:25 The Strategic Mistake Of Sora26:25 Fail Of The Week: Elizabeth Warren Complains About Netflix30:58 Responding To comments

00:00 Overview02:00 The Fall of FICO31:09 Meta $9 Trillion Market Cap Goal32:50 Fail Of The Week: Robots

00:00 Overview02:41 End Of The Metaverse18:37 Mark Zuckerberg Creating AI CEO21:47 Uber Invests In Rivian23:47 Project Hail Mary Success27:20 Costco CEO Eats Hot Dog29:28 Fail Of The Week: Marc Andreessen No Introspection

00:00 Overview02:00 Apple's Superior AI Strategy25:30 Intuit Is Doubling Buybacks27:00 Adobe Earnings32:05 Netflix Paid $600 For AI Company35:00 Fail Of The Week: SEC Quarterly Report

In this episode we review why I purchased, and continue to buy, Meta.

00:00 6 Compounding Machines On A Dip27:45 Tom Lee Predictions30:00 Fail Of The Week: Prediction Of AI Destruction

00:00 Overview02:00 Oil Goes Above $10025:30 Anthropic Sues Trump Administration30:20 Netflix Buys Ben Affleck AI Company34:43 Fail Of The Week: More CEO's Eat Their "product"

We value each stock based on historical valuation and future DCF.

00:00 Overview02:00 Steve Eisman & Tom Lee On War06:45 Netflix Walks Away From Warner Deal20:48 Duolingo Falls 20% After Earnings32:00 Fail Of The Week: McDonalds CEO

00:00 Overview02:00 Agents Remove Friction10:31 DooDash Disruptted Rebuttal24:17 Mastercard Disrupted Rebuttal32:40 The Domino Effect Rebuttal42:45 Netflix Warner Bros Update44:45 Meta & AMD Chip Deal46:36 Fail Of The Week: Robot Vacuum Hacking

00:00 Overview02:00 Super Investor Buys17:17 Moody's Earnings22:40 DoorDash Earnings23:55 Fail Of The Week: Sam & Dario

00:00 Investors Are Scared14:00 3 Monopolies To Buy17:14 Chris Hohn 13f Holding Update19:18 Netflix And Warner Bros21:20 Responding To Jeremy On Duolingo31:52 Fail Of The Week: Chamath Palihapitiya

00:00 Introduction02:00 Things Are Changing Fast19:50 Bill Ackman Buys Meta

00:00 Overview02:00 Burry's Argument11:30 Big Tech Valuation18:50 Jensen Asked About CAPEX31:34 Fail Of The Week: Anthropic Super Bowl Ad

00:00 Overview01:13 Stock Market Panic 13:10 Duration And Business Model19:59 Uber Earnings21:40 Fail Of The Week: Netflix at Congress

00:00 Overview02:00 Meta Analysis12:50 Meta Capex Spend Explained22:00 Tom Lee Bitcoin Prediction23:15 Waymo Accident27:47 Nvidia Walks Back OpenAI Deal

00:00 Overview02:00 Microsoft13:00 Meta18:24 ASML20:08 Mastercard22:00 Tesla

Join Qualtrim, the Stock Analysis platform I built and use, and join over 12,000 other paying members: https://www.qualtrim.com/00:00 Overview01:46 Google06:18 Mastercard09:40 Amazon11:20 S&P Global and Moody's12:45 ASML15:20 Netflix20:12 Microsoft21:06 Costco24:44 Intuit26:33 Salesforce28:10 Texas Roadhouse30:40 Equifax32:30 Duolingo

00:00 Overview01:58 The Markets Are Sinking14:53 Buying $5,000 More Of Duolingo18:17 Netflix Earnings21:50 Andy Jassy On Job Loss26:20 Chris Hohn Breaks Hedge Fund Record30:25 Fail Of The Week: Beast Games Contestant

00:00 Introduction03:00 Netflix & Warner Bros11:40 JP Morgan Is No Longer A Bank16:00 Amazon Advances With Robotics18:52 Visa & Mastercard Interest Rate Cap23:37 Gemini's Unfair Advantage25:47 Fail Of The Week: Matthew Mcconaughey Trademarks Himself

00:00 Fed vs President Trump15:00 Duolingo CFO Steps Down23:40 Apple and Google Partnership25:13 Paramount Sues Warner Bros