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On this week's episode of the podcast, Afshon Ostovar of the Naval Postgraduate School joins Marc Lynch to discuss his new book, Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East. This book offers a sweeping, comprehensive history of the post-9/11 wars in the Middle East and the politics that fueled them. Ostovar discusses both the decline of American influence in the Middle East post-9/11 and the rise of Iran, while deftly integrating the United States, Iran, Israel, Turkey, Russia, and Saudi Arabia into the narrative. Music for this season's podcast was created by Feras Arrabi. You can find more of his work on his website Music and Sound at www.ferasarrabi.com.
The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi this past weekend has prompted questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iranian domestic politics, and succession race for Supreme Leader Khamenei. Afshon Ostovar, a FPRI Senior Fellow, joined FPRI President Aaron Stein to discuss the latest developments in Iran.
This Week's Guests: Dr. Afshon Ostovar Book: https://www.amazon.com/Wars-Ambition-United-States-Struggle/dp/0190940980 Episode 319 "Rethink Production presents "Live From America Podcast" - a weekly show that combines political commentary with humor. Hosted by the comedy cellar owner Noam Dworman and producer Hatem Gabr, the show features expert guests discussing news, culture, and politics with a blend of knowledge and laughter. Dr. Afshon Ostovar is an Associate Professor at the Naval Postgraduate School and a Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He is the author of the award-winning Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards, and a frequent contributor to Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, the Washington Post, War on the Rocks, and other outlets. His forthcoming book Wars of Ambition: The United States, Iran, and the Struggle for the Middle East, tells the story of how the U.S invasion of Iraq ignited a storm of competition for regional dominance, which continues to play out in the region's wars. Today he's joining us in a personal capacity, and so it should be understood that all the opinions expressed are his, and do not reflect in any way those of the institutions with which he is affiliated.” Follow Live From America YouTube @livefromamericapodcast Twitter twitter.com/AmericasPodcast www.LiveFromAmericaPodcast.com LiveFromAmericapodcast@gmail.com Follow Hatem Twitter twitter.com/HatemNYC Instagram www.instagram.com/hatemnyc/ Follow Noam Twitter twitter.com/noam_dworman #UNDERSTANDINGIRAN #AfshonOstovar #IRAN
Qasim Soleimani was arguably Iran's most important military leader in modern history. He moved Iran's overall strategy from a direct approach to an indirect one of proxy warfare using non-state actors. Born in 1957, General Soleimani rose from a humble background to become a key commander in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. His experience of the Iran–Iraq War of 1980–88 gave him a desire to avoid another high-casualty conflict. Instead, he developed a proxy war approach that was much less costly to Iran, using Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and later Hamas to put pressure on Israel and the US. Soleimani was killed in a targeted strike by US forces in January 2020, which made him a martyr in Iran. Dr Afshon Ostovar, Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the US Naval Postgraduate School, joins Beatrice and Paul for this episode. A graduate of the Universities of Arizona and Michigan, he was a Fellow at the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point, worked for the US Department of Defense, and taught at Johns Hopkins University. His book on the Revolutionary Guards examines the rise of Iran's most powerful armed force and its role in regional conflicts and political violence.
From February 11, 2020: Afshon Ostovar is the associate chair for research and an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is also the author of "Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards." The IRGC has been in the news of late because of the killing of the head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qassem Soleimani. Benjamin Wittes spoke with Ostovar about the fallout from the Soleimani killing, how it is all playing in Iran, and why things are so quiet. They talked about whether people made a mountain out of a molehill at the time the killing happened, or whether the blowback just hasn't happened yet.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.
The Iranian government is accused of using a loitering munition to strike the tanker Mercer Street, killing two crew members. The attack is the latest incident at sea involving the Iranians and international shipping. To discuss Iranian strategy in the Persian Gulf, Aaron speaks with Afshon Ostovar, an Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, about escalation dynamics and Iranian strategy.
On this week's Middle East Brief, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor at Naval PostGraduate School and a Fox Fellow at FPRI, about Iran's response to the COVID-19 virus, its regional priorities, and what the future may entail for competition with the United States.
Afshon Ostovar is the associate chair for research and an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. He is also the author of "Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards." The IRGC has been in the news of late because of the killing of the head of the Quds Force of the Revolutionary Guard Corps, Qassem Soleimani. Benjamin Wittes spoke with Ostovar about the fallout from the Soleimani killing, how it is all playing in Iran, and why things are so quiet. They talked about whether people made a mountain out of a molehill at the time the killing happened, or whether the blowback just hasn't happened yet.
In this episode, I speak with Afshon Ostovar, a historian, author and a foremost expert on the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Afshon and I cover a lot of ground. We start by talking about the historical context around the IRGC, when and how it was started, its role in the Iran-Iraq war, how the organization evolved through the years, how it is different than Iran's regular military, its Quds Force and the Islamic Republic's foreign involvements, where Qasem Soleimani fit into the picture, his relationships with various Shia militia groups and other groups such as the Taliban and Al Qaeda, the mythology surrounding Soleimani and his role in ISIS's rise and fall. We also discuss the recent events surrounding Trump's decision to kill Soleimani, the legality of and the logic behind the killing, the downing of the Ukrainian jetliner and its implications on the survival of the Islamic Republic as a system, whether the system would have been strengthened as a result of Soleimani's killing if the downing of the jetliner hadn't happened, protests in Iran and their frequency, the possibility of an all-out collapse of the Islamic Republic and other topics.
Iran has been accused of firing cruise missiles and drones at oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, a close American partner, and the world's most important energy producer. The attack was the most audacious yet, in what has been a simmering indirect conflict between the Middle East's two largest powers. To discuss this situation, Aaron speaks with Dr. Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an FPRI Senior Fellow.
Tensions between Iran and the United States have escalated in the Persian Gulf. On this week's Middle East Brief, Afshon Ostovar, an assistant professor at the Naval Post Graduate School and FPRI Senior Fellow, joins the program to discuss the recent attack in Fujairah, U.S. policy towards Iran, and the potential for a U.S. - Iranian clash. Related Materials by Afshon Ostovar:"Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards" https://amzn.to/2LPtYYR"Iran, its clients, and the future of the Middle East: the limits of religion" http://bit.ly/2W5FPG1"The Grand Strategy of Militant Clients: Iran’s Way of War"http://bit.ly/2WOnNVI
"The IRGC's powers are often exaggerated.... but on the flipside of that, I think it's also often dismissed— where particularly from the U.S. perspective, they see the IRGC as a convenient foil. How do we how do we make the case against Iran? We use the IRGC and all of its nefarious activities as an excuse," Afshon Ostovar said. "You see this in Yemen in particular, where there's countless articles that come out that say the IRGC is not important in Yemen... This sort of thing I think is also missing the point" "It's hard to get them right, but it's easier to sort of exaggerate or minimize their influence." Ostovar is an Assistant Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School. His recent book, Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards examines the rise of Iran’s most powerful armed force—the IRGC—and its role in power politics, regional conflicts, and political violence. "I see the IRGC as being much not just devoted to [Ali] Khamenei, but being devoted to the office of the supreme leader. The supreme leader itself is the centerpoint of the Islamic system of Iran...And I think that the symbolic importance of the supreme leader is something that that the IRGC doesn't want to doesn't want to do without," said Ostovar "A few years ago, particularly after 2009 when the IRGC was involved in the crackdown, and you had a lot of talk about their rise in power at that time. One of the discussions was, 'Well is is Iraq moving towards a dictatorship or are they just going to squeeze out the supreme leader?'" "One of the arguments that I make in my book is I don't think that they'll do that because I think I think the supreme leader is very much not just important to them symbolically, but he is tied into their identity. They are the servants of the supreme leader. They are literally the guardians of that Islamic system. They don't want to be the leaders of it. That doesn't mean that they don't want to have their way— they get their way more often than not— but they they survive when they don't get their way."
A discussion with Afshon Ostovar on his new book Vanguard of the Imam: Religion, Politics, and Iran's Revolutionary Guards.
Four members of the War on the Rocks squad ended up in Istanbul this week. What could go wrong? Afshon Ostovar of the CNA Corporation, Aaron Stein of RUSI, Joshua Walker of GMF, and Ryan Evans of your favorite outlet on strategy, defense, foreign policy, and booze join you from a lovely garden a stone's throw from the Blue Mosque and the Hagia Sophia to talk about the Turkish elections, the implications of the Iranian nuclear negotiations, Turkish-Iranian relations, the Syrian civil war, and Istanbul's best watering holes. Have a listen!
Some of the sharpest minds on the Middle East in town sat down over drinks to tackle some of the most troublesome problems in the world's most troublesome region. Have a listen! Soner Cagaptay is the Beyer Family fellow and director of the Turkish Research Program at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy. He is the author of The Rise of Turkey. Ryan Evans is the editor-in-chief of War on the Rocks. Douglas A. Ollivant is a Senior National Security Fellow with the New America Foundation and the Senior Vice President of Mantid International, LLC. Afshon Ostovar is a senior analyst at the CNA Corporation. Joshua W. Walker is a Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a Fellow at the Truman National Security Project, Image: Flickr, Argenberg, CC
The other day, I sat down with War on the Rocks contributors Bill Rosenau, Will McCants, and Afshon Ostovar - all of the Strategic Studies Center at the Center for Naval Analyses - for a conversation that ranged widely from Syria to Snowden to the think tank industry. We were hosted by the Jefferson Hotel in Washington, DC. Listen here: