Podcasts about German Marshall Fund

"Today's 'pro-Europeans' would be horrified at the suggestion that their idea of Europe had anything to do with whiteness. In fact, many would find the attempt to link the two baffling and outrageous," writes Hans Kundnani in Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project (Oxford UP, 2023). Yet, he does so - taking the reader on a historical journey through the development of European identity from Christendom to the coincidence of the Enlightenment and the development of colonialism to the pan-European movement that grew out of the first world war and peace project (or was it?) that emerged from the second. Not only is pro-Europeanism “analogous to nationalism - something like nationalism but on a larger, continental scale," Kundani argues, but the EU itself has “become a vehicle for imperial amnesia" thereby promoting and privileging “whiteness”. Hans Kundnani is a fellow at the Open Society Foundations Workshop, an associate scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and a visiting scholar at the Robert L. Heilbroner Center for Capitalism Studies at The New School for Social Research. From 2018-22, he was a full-time researcher at Chatham House, including as director of the Europe Programme. Before that, he was a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, the Transatlantic Academy, and the European Council on Foreign Relations. In 2014, he published The Paradox of German Power. *The author's own book recommendations are Eurafrica: The Untold History of European Integration and Colonialism by Peo Hansen and Stefan Jonsson (Bloomsbury Academic, 2015) and The Lonely Londoners by Sam Selvon (Penguin Modern Classics, 2006 - first published in 1956) Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes the twenty4two newsletter on Substack and hosts the In The Room podcast series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/new-books-network

"Today's 'pro-Europeans' would be horrified at the suggestion that their idea of Europe had anything to do with whiteness. In fact, many would find the attempt to link the two baffling and outrageous," writes Hans Kundnani in Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project (Oxford UP, 2023). Yet, he does so - taking the reader on a historical journey through the development of European identity from Christendom to the coincidence of the Enlightenment and the development of colonialism to the pan-European movement that grew out of the first world war and peace project (or was it?) that emerged from the second. Not only is pro-Europeanism “analogous to nationalism - something like nationalism but on a larger, continental scale," Kundani argues, but the EU itself has “become a vehicle for imperial amnesia" thereby promoting and privileging “whiteness”. Hans Kundnani is a fellow at the Open Society Foundations Workshop, an associate scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and a visiting scholar at the Robert L. Heilbroner Center for Capitalism Studies at The New School for Social Research. From 2018-22, he was a full-time researcher at Chatham House, including as director of the Europe Programme. Before that, he was a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, the Transatlantic Academy, and the European Council on Foreign Relations. In 2014, he published The Paradox of German Power. *The author's own book recommendations are Eurafrica: The Untold History of European Integration and Colonialism by Peo Hansen and Stefan Jonsson (Bloomsbury Academic, 2015) and The Lonely Londoners by Sam Selvon (Penguin Modern Classics, 2006 - first published in 1956) Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes the twenty4two newsletter on Substack and hosts the In The Room podcast series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/critical-theory

"Today's 'pro-Europeans' would be horrified at the suggestion that their idea of Europe had anything to do with whiteness. In fact, many would find the attempt to link the two baffling and outrageous," writes Hans Kundnani in Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project (Oxford UP, 2023). Yet, he does so - taking the reader on a historical journey through the development of European identity from Christendom to the coincidence of the Enlightenment and the development of colonialism to the pan-European movement that grew out of the first world war and peace project (or was it?) that emerged from the second. Not only is pro-Europeanism “analogous to nationalism - something like nationalism but on a larger, continental scale," Kundani argues, but the EU itself has “become a vehicle for imperial amnesia" thereby promoting and privileging “whiteness”. Hans Kundnani is a fellow at the Open Society Foundations Workshop, an associate scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and a visiting scholar at the Robert L. Heilbroner Center for Capitalism Studies at The New School for Social Research. From 2018-22, he was a full-time researcher at Chatham House, including as director of the Europe Programme. Before that, he was a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, the Transatlantic Academy, and the European Council on Foreign Relations. In 2014, he published The Paradox of German Power. *The author's own book recommendations are Eurafrica: The Untold History of European Integration and Colonialism by Peo Hansen and Stefan Jonsson (Bloomsbury Academic, 2015) and The Lonely Londoners by Sam Selvon (Penguin Modern Classics, 2006 - first published in 1956) Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes the twenty4two newsletter on Substack and hosts the In The Room podcast series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/european-studies

"Today's 'pro-Europeans' would be horrified at the suggestion that their idea of Europe had anything to do with whiteness. In fact, many would find the attempt to link the two baffling and outrageous," writes Hans Kundnani in Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project (Oxford UP, 2023). Yet, he does so - taking the reader on a historical journey through the development of European identity from Christendom to the coincidence of the Enlightenment and the development of colonialism to the pan-European movement that grew out of the first world war and peace project (or was it?) that emerged from the second. Not only is pro-Europeanism “analogous to nationalism - something like nationalism but on a larger, continental scale," Kundani argues, but the EU itself has “become a vehicle for imperial amnesia" thereby promoting and privileging “whiteness”. Hans Kundnani is a fellow at the Open Society Foundations Workshop, an associate scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and a visiting scholar at the Robert L. Heilbroner Center for Capitalism Studies at The New School for Social Research. From 2018-22, he was a full-time researcher at Chatham House, including as director of the Europe Programme. Before that, he was a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, the Transatlantic Academy, and the European Council on Foreign Relations. In 2014, he published The Paradox of German Power. *The author's own book recommendations are Eurafrica: The Untold History of European Integration and Colonialism by Peo Hansen and Stefan Jonsson (Bloomsbury Academic, 2015) and The Lonely Londoners by Sam Selvon (Penguin Modern Classics, 2006 - first published in 1956) Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes the twenty4two newsletter on Substack and hosts the In The Room podcast series. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://newbooksnetwork.supportingcast.fm/politics-and-polemics

"Today's 'pro-Europeans' would be horrified at the suggestion that their idea of Europe had anything to do with whiteness. In fact, many would find the attempt to link the two baffling and outrageous," writes Hans Kundnani in Eurowhiteness: Culture, Empire and Race in the European Project (Oxford UP, 2023). Yet, he does so - taking the reader on a historical journey through the development of European identity from Christendom to the coincidence of the Enlightenment and the development of colonialism to the pan-European movement that grew out of the first world war and peace project (or was it?) that emerged from the second. Not only is pro-Europeanism “analogous to nationalism - something like nationalism but on a larger, continental scale," Kundani argues, but the EU itself has “become a vehicle for imperial amnesia" thereby promoting and privileging “whiteness”. Hans Kundnani is a fellow at the Open Society Foundations Workshop, an associate scholar at the Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House), and a visiting scholar at the Robert L. Heilbroner Center for Capitalism Studies at The New School for Social Research. From 2018-22, he was a full-time researcher at Chatham House, including as director of the Europe Programme. Before that, he was a researcher at the German Marshall Fund, the Transatlantic Academy, and the European Council on Foreign Relations. In 2014, he published The Paradox of German Power. *The author's own book recommendations are Eurafrica: The Untold History of European Integration and Colonialism by Peo Hansen and Stefan Jonsson (Bloomsbury Academic, 2015) and The Lonely Londoners by Sam Selvon (Penguin Modern Classics, 2006 - first published in 1956) Tim Gwynn Jones is an economic and political-risk analyst at Medley Advisors, who also writes the twenty4two newsletter on Substack and hosts the In The Room podcast series.

According to the German Marshall Fund chair Chris Schroeder, China both goes to bed and wakes up thinking of China rather than America. How does the Washington DC based Schroeder know? Because, unlike almost all Americans, he actually made the effort of visiting China this year and seeing this vast and paradoxical country for himself. “Curiosity has never been more valuable,” Schroeder warns. “If you are not on the ground, you have no sense of nuance. You get caught in a narrative which is much more macro." And that's exactly what the global investor and entrepreneur did. He got on the ground - talked to young Chinese entrepreneurs, traveled on high speed rail, saw an entire car assembled in twenty seconds. Americans might not want to obsess over the China paradox. But they should probably occasionally spare a thought for this remarkable country before going to bed or waking up in the morning.According to German Marshall Fund chair Chris Schroeder, China goes to bed and wakes up thinking about China — not America. How does the Washington, DC-based Schroeder know? Because, unlike almost all Americans, he actually made the effort of visiting China this year and seeing this vast and paradoxical country for himself. “Curiosity has never been more valuable,” he warns. “If you are not on the ground, you have no sense of nuance. You get caught in a narrative which is much more macro.” And that's exactly what the global investor and entrepreneur did — he talked to young Chinese entrepreneurs, traveled on high-speed rail, saw an entire car assembled in 20 seconds. Americans don't need to think about China every night or morning. But they would be advised to listen to nuanced and on-the-ground stories of curious travelers like Chris Schroeder. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

Elections in Hungary are not expected until April, but who is leading in the polls? Péter Magyar's Tisza party or Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's Fidesz? To better understand the situation, I spoke with Daniel Hegedüs, Regional Director for Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund. He writes and speaks extensively on populism and democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe, and we discuss what Orbán may be willing to do to remain in power. Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Le président ukrainien Volodymyr Zelensky se dit optimiste sur les chances de faire avancer les discussions visant à mettre fin à la guerre entre la Russie et l'Ukraine et annonce une rencontre avec Donald Trump dimanche 28 décembre en Floride. Les questions sensibles, telles que le sort du Donbass, devraient être abordées. Sous pression de l'administration américaine pour conclure un plan de paix, Volodymyr Zelensky a connu une fin d'année délicate. Il parvient malgré tout à conserver la confiance des Ukrainiens.  Donald Trump voulait un accord avant Noël. Son vœu n'a pas été exaucé. « Beaucoup de choses peuvent être décidées avant le Nouvel an », veut croire Volodymyr Zelensky, au lendemain de discussions avec les envoyés de la Maison Blanche. En dépit de cet optimisme affiché, le président ukrainien est soumis à forte pression, d'autant que les positions russes restent, pour l'heure, inflexibles. Mardi, Volodymyr Zelensky a détaillé devant la presse le plan de paix révisé en 20 points, le présentant comme la meilleure tentative de l'Ukraine de mettre fin à la guerre. Le document aborde un large éventail de questions, allant des éventuels arrangements territoriaux aux garanties de sécurité que Kiev souhaite obtenir pour prévenir toute future agression russe, en passant par les plans de reconstruction du pays ravagé par la guerre. Selon Volodymyr Zelensky, les diverses sections du plan « reflètent en grande partie la position commune ukraino-américaine ». Reste quelques points de blocage, à commencer par la question épineuse de l'avenir du Donbass. La Russie exige que les forces ukrainiennes se retirent des territoires de la région de Donetsk qu'elles contrôlent encore. Le président ukrainien ne peut accepter cette demande. À écouter et à lire aussiVolodymyr Zelensky, président ukrainien S'il cède, « il n'aura plus d'avenir politique », tranche le politologue Volodymyr Fessenko du centre Penta à Kiev. « En Ukraine, le sentiment qui domine est qu'il est impossible d'accepter de reconnaitre juridiquement les territoires occupés comme étant russes. Si, en cas de cessez-le-feu le long de la ligne de front, une partie du territoire ukrainien restait sous contrôle russe, la plupart des Ukrainiens pourraient accepter ce scénario mais à condition que ces territoires ne soient pas reconnus juridiquement comme étant russes. » Militairement, l'Ukraine ne peut pas se permettre de céder des zones fortement fortifiées de Donetsk, note pour sa part la chercheuse ukrainienne Olena Prokopenko, du centre de réflexion German Marshall Fund. « Céder des territoires fortifiés sans combat offrirait à la Russie une base idéale pour intensifier son invasion. Si l'Ukraine acceptait ces concessions, notre position sur la ligne de front serait gravement affaiblie. Les abandonner sans combat, donner à la Russie des territoires qu'elle n'a pas réussi à conquérir en onze ans depuis l'invasion du Donbass, constituerait une décision militairement désastreuse », explique-t-elle.  Le scénario dans lequel Volodymyr Zelensky se verrait contraint de céder tout le Donbass à la Russie « ne pourrait se produire qu'en cas de situation catastrophique sur le front ou dans le secteur énergétique, qui ne lui laisserait pas d'autre choix », avance Volodymyr Fessenko. Concessions territoriales  Quoi qu'il en soit, le président ukrainien n'en sortirait pas indemne. Seule concession à laquelle Volodymyr Zelensky se dit prêt : l'Ukraine pourrait retirer ses troupes des zones de l'ouest de la région de Donetsk encore sous son contrôle, pour les transformer en une zone démilitarisée dans le cadre d'un éventuel accord de paix avec Moscou, à condition que la Russie retire ses forces d'une zone équivalente. En tout état de cause, Volodymyr Zelensky estime que la création d'une zone démilitarisée doit être approuvée par le biais d'un référendum. Parallèlement aux discussions autour du plan de paix, le président ukrainien a dû affronter une tempête intérieure ces derniers mois. L'affaire Midas, vaste affaire de corruption qui touche le secteur énergétique ukrainien, a poussé les ministres de la Justice Herman Halouchtchenko et la ministre de l'Énergie, Svitlana Hryntchouk à démissionner le mois dernier. Volodymyr Zelensky a ensuite dû se défaire de son plus proche conseiller, Andriy Iermak. En écartant le chef de l'administration présidentielle, qu'il n'a pas encore remplacé, tout en maintenant une ligne relativement ferme dans les pourparlers de paix, sa côte de popularité est remontée. Selon une enquête récente menée par l'Institut international de sociologie de Kyiv (KIIS), 61% des Ukrainiens lui font confiance. « Aussi étrange que cela puisse paraître, la confrontation autour du plan de paix de Donald Trump a une fois de plus aidé », affirme Volodymyr Fessenko. Le plan de paix amendé par Kiev prévoit également la tenue d'élections en Ukraine dès que possible après la signature d'un accord de paix. Le mandat présidentiel de cinq ans de Volodymyr Zelensky aurait dû expirer en mai de l'année dernière, mais il a été prolongé en vertu de la loi martiale en vigueur depuis l'invasion russe de 2022. Le chef de l'État a chargé le Parlement de réfléchir à des modifications de la législation électorale pour examiner la possibilité d'organiser une présidentielle. Olena Prokopenko y voit une « démarche habile » tant sur le plan intérieur qu'à l'international. « Cela envoie le signal qu'il redonne un rôle central au Parlement, qui a été largement marginalisé ces dernières années, en lui confiant une décision potentiellement historique. Sur le plan international, cela montre qu'il est prêt à participer à des élections et qu'il ne fuit pas ses responsabilités », explique-t-elle. Sur le plan international, cette initiative est vue comme importante car elle renvoie la pression vers Donald Trump, qui accuse son homologue ukrainien d'utiliser la guerre comme prétexte pour éviter une élection et se maintenir au pouvoir. « En acceptant de préparer un cadre législatif, Zelensky contraint Trump à faire pression sur Vladimir Poutine afin d'obtenir un cessez-le-feu, que ce dernier a rejeté à plusieurs reprises ces derniers mois. Cela permet de mettre en évidence que l'obstacle à la paix n'est pas l'Ukraine, mais bien la Russie », note Olena Prokopenko. Élection présidentielle  Dans le cas, très hypothétique, où une élection présidentielle pourrait se tenir avant la fin des hostilités, quelles chances Volodymyr Zelensky aurait-il de remporter le scrutin ? La probabilité d'une victoire du président sortant est « très forte », selon la chercheuse du German Marshall Fund, « non pas parce qu'il n'existe pas de griefs à son égard, mais parce que l'Ukraine a besoin d'une unité maximale pour résister à la pression de l'administration américaine dans le cadre des négociations de paix. Ses chances de victoire seraient aujourd'hui bien supérieures à ce qu'elles seraient après la guerre ». La perspective pour Volodymyr Zelensky de remporter le scrutin est plus élevée aujourd'hui, abonde Volodymyr Fessenko : « Les citoyens qui lui sont favorables ou neutres évaluent positivement son rôle comme chef de la politique étrangère et commandant en chef. Après la guerre, surtout s'il devait conclure un accord de paix perçu comme défavorable, ses chances pourraient diminuer. » Dans ces conditions, certaines figures de l'opposition estiment que Volodymyr Zelensky pourrait être tenté d'organiser au plus vite des élections. Conformément aux engagements pris par le président auprès de Donald Trump, la Rada, le Parlement ukrainien s'apprête à examiner la question de l'organisation d'élections. Cependant, « il existe une faible probabilité qu'un projet de loi sur les élections en temps de guerre voit le jour. Son adoption reste incertaine. Le scénario le plus probable pour l'an prochain serait la tenue d'élections uniquement si un accord de cessez-le-feu était conclu au premier semestre », pronostique Volodymyr Fessenko, qui constate que « même au sein du parti présidentiel Serviteur du peuple, nombreux sont ceux qui s'opposent à des élections en temps de guerre. Si l'opposition et les députés réticents se mobilisent, l'adoption d'une telle loi sera impossible », souligne le politologue. En Ukraine, l'opinion publique estime, dans une très large majorité, qu'aucune des conditions sécuritaires, juridiques ou structurelles ne sont réunies pour organiser des élections, note Olena Prokopenko. « Les Ukrainiens comprennent que ce n'est pas le moment. Il n'existe aucune demande sociale en ce sens, et ce débat est principalement ravivé sous la pression de la Russie et des États-Unis ». Selon le sondage récent du KIIS, seuls 9 % des Ukrainiens soutiennent l'idée d'élections en temps de guerre. À lire aussiGel du front, élections, Otan: ce que contient la dernière version du plan américain pour la paix en Ukraine

Loren Voss, Public Service Fellow at Lawfare, sits down with Kori Schake, senior fellow and the director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute, and Carrie Lee, senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Strategic Democracy Initiatives. They discuss how they assess a healthy civil-military relationship, the current state of civil-military affairs, potential unlawful orders, and what we should watch going forward.Lee and Schake outline the frameworks they use to assess civil-military relations in the United States and how to think about unlawful orders and an “unprincipled principal.” Both Schake and Lee agree that the military should not bear the burden of being the solution; fixes must come from civilian leadership in the executive and legislative branches. The group concludes by identifying five indicators everyone should watch going forward to indicate the system isn't functioning as it should. To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Donald Trumps Rückkehr ins Weiße Haus, Putins Vormarsch in der Ukraine und eine transatlantische Statik, die „endgültig aus den Fugen“ geraten ist: Das Jahr 2025 war sicherheitspolitisch ein Jahr der Zerreißproben. In dieser Sonderfolge zieht Gordon Repinski gemeinsam mit Claudia Major, Sicherheitsexpertin und Senior Vice President, Transatlantic Security beim German Marshall Fund, Bilanz. Major analysiert, warum Europa momentan keine glaubwürdige „Siegtheorie“ für die Ukraine hat und weshalb die Kapitulation Kiews zwar „gerade noch abgewendet“ wurde, die Gefahr für 2026 aber keineswegs gebannt ist. Es geht um die Wirksamkeit des 90-Milliarden-Kredits und die bittere Erkenntnis, dass der Westen derzeit nicht genug tut, um Putins Kalkül zu verändern. Sie erklärt, ob und wie sich der Kontinent im Ernstfall auch ohne die USA verteidigen könnte, warum „Sicherheitsgarantien“ oft missverstanden werden und welche Rolle kleine Formate wie die „E3“ oder „E5“ im kommenden Jahr spielen müssen. Das Berlin Playbook als Podcast gibt es jeden Morgen ab 5 Uhr. Gordon Repinski und das POLITICO-Team liefern Politik zum Hören – kompakt, international, hintergründig. Für alle Hauptstadt-Profis: Der Berlin Playbook-Newsletter bietet jeden Morgen die wichtigsten Themen und Einordnungen. Jetzt kostenlos abonnieren. Mehr von Host und POLITICO Executive Editor Gordon Repinski: Instagram: @gordon.repinski | X: @GordonRepinski. Legal Notice (Belgium) POLITICO SRL Forme sociale: Société à Responsabilité Limitée Siège social: Rue De La Loi 62, 1040 Bruxelles Numéro d'entreprise: 0526.900.436 RPM Bruxelles info@politico.eu www.politico.eu Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Washington is stepping up diplomatic efforts to address Israeli objections to a possible Turkish role in an International Stabilisation Force in Gaza, a move that could affect plans to disarm Hamas and advance US President Donald Trump's Gaza peace plan. Trump is due to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on 29 December in Florida. The meeting is the latest attempt to revive the Gaza plan, which aims to move from a ceasefire towards the creation of a new governing arrangement in Gaza, the deployment of an international force and the disarmament of Hamas. On Friday, Turkish and Egyptian officials met their US counterparts in Miami. With a ceasefire in place in Gaza, Washington is pushing the next phase of its plan, which would include Turkish troops in an International Stabilisation Force. From Washington's perspective, Turkey's involvement is considered essential to the plan, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. Turkey and Iran unite against Israel as regional power dynamics shift Israeli objections Hamas disarmament depends on the creation of a new Palestinian governing entity and the presence of international peacekeepers, with Turkey acting as a guarantor, Aydintasbas said. “Without Turkey in this process, decommissioning Hamas weapons would not occur. That is implicit in the agreement.” Turkey's close ties with Hamas are well known, with senior Hamas figures reportedly hosted in Turkey. While Turkey's Western allies label Hamas a terrorist group, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said its members are liberation fighters. Trump has publicly thanked Ankara for using its influence to encourage Hamas to accept the peace plan. Israel opposes any Turkish military presence in Gaza, fearing Turkey would support Hamas rather than disarm it. Israel is also concerned about cyber attacks attributed to Hamas operating from Turkish territory and doubts Turkey would act in Israel's interests, said Gallia Lindenstrauss, a Turkey analyst at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv. “There's a risk of an accident between Israeli and Turkish forces, given the already high tensions and suspicions. It's hard to see a positive outcome,” she said. Israel has struggled to persuade Trump to back its position. “The US has its own priorities, and is receptive to Ankara due to strong Trump-Erdogan relations,” Lindenstrauss added. Turkey ready to help rebuild Gaza, but tensions with Israel could be a barrier Turkey's position Erdogan, who has cultivated close ties with Trump, has said Turkey is ready to send soldiers to Gaza. Reports have claimed Turkey has a brigade on standby for deployment. Turkey's relationship with Hamas is a “double-edged sword”, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, head of the German Marshall Fund office in Ankara. From Israel's point of view, Turkey is too close to Hamas, but “if you want to contribute to disarming them, dialogue is needed”. Any Gaza mission would be risky, but the Turkish army has decades of experience, Unluhisarcikli said. “It has a proven track record in terms of post-conflict stabilisation from the Balkans to Afghanistan. They have proven they can operate in such environments.” Despite strained diplomatic ties, the Turkish and Israeli militaries still maintain open communication. The two countries operate a hotline to avoid clashes between their air forces over Syria, demonstrating continued military coordination despite political tensions. Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Regional doubts Egypt and Saudi Arabia distrust Turkey's ties with Hamas and question its intentions in Gaza, Unluhisarcikli said, with concerns that echo memories of Ottoman-era rule. On Monday, US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack met Netanyahu in an effort to ease Israeli concerns. However, prospects for a breakthrough are likely to depend on this month's meeting between Netanyahu and Trump. Incentives may be offered to encourage Israel to accept Turkey's role, but the issue is unlikely to be resolved that way, said Asli Aydintasbas of the Brookings Institution. “Because this is such a fundamental and existential issue for Israel, I don't think incentives will work,” she said. “As to whether or not Trump would go so far as to withhold military or financial aid, it would be very unlikely. Rather, it may just let this situation sort of fester. I don't think the Americans have a clear plan to push forward if the answer from Netanyahu is to say no.”

Với một bức tường thành kiên cố, Trung Quốc tự tin lao vào một cuộc đối đầu với Mỹ ở mọi hiệp trong trận chiến thương mại mà tổng thống Trump khai mào ngay từ những ngày đầu trở lại Nhà Trắng. Liên Âu bị kẹt giữa 2 thế lực Mỹ-Trung. Sau gần 4 năm « tự chủ về năng lượng », Bruxelles bớt phụ thuộc vào dầu khí của Nga để dựa vào các nhà sản xuất Hoa Kỳ, trong lúc năng lượng tái tạo chưa thực sự cất cánh. Năm 2025 sắp khép lại, các chủ đề trên đây đã làm lu mờ những khu vực khác trên thế giới. Có rất ít bài phân tích về tác động hai cuộc chiến tại Ukraina và Gaza với toàn cầu. Khu vực Trung Đông, châu Phi … chỉ thi thoảng được nhắc tới, khi tổng thống Hoa Kỳ công du các quốc gia vùng Vịnh, hay khi ông triệu tập các lãnh đạo của châu Phi đến Washington ký một thỏa thuận ngừng bắn tại một châu lục « rất xa xôi » trong mắt ông Trump. Các hội nghị thường niên của khối BRICS quy tụ những nền kinh tế đang trỗi dậy, của hiệp hội các nước Đông Nam Á ASEAN, diễn đàn Hợp Tác Kinh Tế Châu Á Thái Bình Dương APEC, các khối G7 hay G20 « chỉ họp hội nghị cho có lệ ». Tại G20 vừa qua ở Gyeongju, Hàn Quốc, tổng thống Mỹ đã vắng mặt. Donald Trump rời khỏi quốc gia Đông Bắc Á này sau thượng đỉnh Busan với lãnh đạo Trung Quốc Tập Cận Bình. Như thể về kinh tế, thế giới giờ đây chỉ còn lại hai cực là Mỹ và Trung Quốc. Trung Quốc, « too big to deal » Tháng 4/2025, sau ba tháng trở lại cầm quyền, tổng thống Mỹ dùng đòn « thuế đối ứng » mở một cuộc chiến thương mại với toàn cầu. Trong những tháng tiếp theo, từ Liên Hiệp Châu Âu đến Nhật Bản, Đài Loan, Hàn Quốc hay Việt Nam … hối hả cử phái đoàn sang Washington đàm phán, nhưng riêng Trung Quốc là một ngoại lệ. Sau nhiều vòng đàm phán với chính quyền Washington, các đối tác thương mại chính của Mỹ như Liên Hiệp Châu Âu, Nhật Bản và Hàn Quốc thở phào nhẹ nhõm thấy hàng xuất khẩu sang Hoa Kỳ trung bình bị áp thuế 15% thay vì 30-40% như ông Trump đã dọa ban đầu. Sắc lệnh điều chỉnh mức thuế đối ứng, được công bố hôm 01/08/2025, duy trì mức thuế 20% với hàng Việt Nam thay vì 46% như đã loan báo 4 tháng trước đó. Nhà Trắng khẳng định đánh thuế hàng nước ngoài cho phép thu về « hàng chục tỷ, thậm chí là cả ngàn tỷ đô la » cho nước Mỹ. và Donald Trump dự trù dùng số tiền khổng lồ đó để giảm thuế cho các hộ gia đình và doanh nghiệp, tăng chi tiêu xã hội và quốc phòng … Cố vấn thương mại của Nhà Trắng Peter Navarro chừng mực hơn khi cho rằng « dưới sự dẫn dắt sáng suốt của tổng thống » khi sử dụng các đòn thuế quan, « ngân sách Hoa Kỳ mỗi năm thu về được thêm 600 tỷ đô la ». Để so sánh, kim ngạch nhập khẩu của Mỹ năm 2022 là 3.200 tỷ đô la. Trái lại, theo một nghiên cứu của đại học Yale, với mức thuế hải quan 25%, thu nhập của các hộ gia đình Mỹ sẽ bị sụt giảm từ 2.700 đô la đến 3.000 đô la mỗi năm. Trung Quốc chuyển từ thế « thủ » sang thế « công » Về phía Trung Quốc thoạt tiên đã nhường cho Hoa Kỳ tha hồ « leo thang » với những tuyên bố về hạn ngạnh thuế quan có lúc lên tới  240% … để rồi Bắc Kinh đổi chiến lược. Trung Quốc dùng đất hiếm để mặc cả với Donald Trump vào lúc Nhà Trắng có kế hoạch xây dựng « mái vòm vàng tự vệ » tựa như mái vòm chống tên lửa của Israel.    Chuyên gia kinh tế Alix Franguel Alves thuọc quỹ nghiên cứu German Marshall Fund of the United States tại Washington trên đài RFI ghi nhận chính sách thuế quan của tổng thống Trump đi theo logic giành lại vị trí trung tâm trên bàn cờ thương mại thế giới, vào lúc mà Hoa Kỳ trong thế nhập siêu « thường trực ». Thâm hụt mậu dịch của Mỹ năm 2024 lên tới 3.000 tỷ đô la và trên bàn cờ thương mại toàn cầu, Mỹ chỉ còn chiếm 13% . Năm 2025 là năm mà mô hình « kinh tế toàn cầu hóa » bị « phân mảnh »,  các khối kinh tế khu vực ngày càng đóng vai trò lớn hơn. Bên cạnh tranh luận ai được ai thua trong cuộc đọ sức thương mại này, hậu quả trước mắt là các đối tác của Hoa Kỳ đã hối hả khởi động lại hoặc đúc kết đàm phán về môt thỏa thuận tự do mậu dịch. Châu Âu bất chấp những chống đối trong nội bộ ký kết bằng được thỏa thuận tự do mậu dịch với khối các quốc gia châu Mỹ Latinh MERCOSUR. Trung Quốc chạy nước rút để thông qua những thỏa thuận « đối tác chưa từng có » với quần đảo Cook ở mãi tận Nam Thái Bình Dương, hay khởi động đàm phán với Kirghistan tại Trung Á. Cũng chính sách bảo hộ này của Mỹ đã thúc đẩy Nhật Bản, Hàn Quốc và Trung Quốc xích lại gần nhau để hướng tới « đàm phán về một thỏa thuận tự do mậu dịch » giữa ba quốc gia Đông Bắc Á này. Thế rồi, trong lúc Hoa Kỳ bắt thế giới phải chạy theo những thông báo « sốc » gần như hàng ngày của Donald Trump, Bắc Kinh đã từng bước xây dựng mạng lưới công nghiệp và công nghệ để chuẩn bị đối đầu với Mỹ. Tiêu biểu nhất là Trung Quốc đang dẫn đầu trong nhiều lĩnh vực chuyển đổi năng lượng, nhiều nước châu Âu đang cố gắng học hỏi công nghệ chế tạo bình điện cho xe ô tô của Trung Quốc và đòi các đối tác Trung Quốc « chuyển giao công nghệ » trong các dự án hợp tác. Hơn thế nữa, ngay cả trong các mảng mà tưởng chừng Hoa Kỳ đang dẫn đầu, như trí tuệ nhân tạo, sản xuất máy chế tạo bọ điện tử tiên tiến nhất … thì Trung Quốc cũng đã tạo bất ngờ. Điểm đáng chú ý sau cùng trong cuộc đọ sức Mỹ Trung là vào lúc tổng thống Trump dùng đòn hù dọa và o ép các đối phương bằng sức mạnh kinh tế, thì ông Tập Cận Bình trong năm 2025 đã dùng đúng lá bài này kể cả đối với Donald Trump. Châu Âu bị kẹt giữa hai thế lực Năm 2025 vẫn là một năm mà tham vọng « tự chủ » về năng lượng, quốc phòng hay kỹ thuật số của toàn khối 27 nước châu Âu vẫn còn ngoài tầm tay. Trên đài phát thanh Pháp France Culture hôm 10/12/2025 chuyên gia Olivier Blanchard, nguyên kinh tế trưởng Quỹ Tiền Tệ Quốc Tế IMF, lấy làm tiếc cho một khối quốc gia thịnh vượng và có nhiềm tiềm năng như Liên Hiệp Châu Âu :  « Châu Âu đương nhiên gặp nhiều khó khăn, tất cả không đều do lỗi của ông Trump. Trước hết có những vấn đề nội bộ : Châu Âu đang đối mặt với hiện tượng các đảng cực hữu đang lên và cánh này không có khuynh hướng ủng hộ châu Âu. Hệ quả là Liên Âu bị tê liệt, không đưa ra được những quyết định dứt khoát. Đây thực sự là cả một vấn đề lớn với khối này, nhất là trong bối cảnh môi trường quốc tế bất thuận lợi vì hai thế lực Mỹ và Trung Quốc. Với Hoa Kỳ, Liên Âu không thực sự có vũ khí để mặc cả bất kỳ điều gì : Châu Âu không có đất hiếm như Trung Quốc và cũng không có bất kỳ một phương tiện nào để đánh trúng những nhược điểm của đối thủ này. Đó là một thực tế. Thế còn đối với Trung Quốc, thì đây tựa như một bàn billard 3 cú, tức là Mỹ đánh thuế hàng của Trung Quốc thì cũng sẽ ảnh hưởng đến Liên Hiệp Châu Âu. Lý do : Trung Quốc không thể xuất khẩu hàng sang Hoa Kỳ nên tăng tốc, ồ ạt xuất khẩu sang châu Âu. Châu lục này sẽ phải đối mặt với một làn sóng hàng Trung Quốc. Đối với nền công nghiệp của châu Âu, vấn đề chính là Trung Quốc. Bắc Kinh đã chủ trương phát triển một chiến lược khá tốn kém, tức là dùng rất nhiều tiền, để hỗ trợ cho các doanh nghiệp để giúp họ phát triển. Đương nhiên trong số các doanh nghiệp được giúp đỡ cũng có không ít thất bại, thế nhưng, những ai mà đã thành công để vươn lên thì họ đã bắt đầu với những lợi thế vô cùng to lớn, vì được nhà nước giúp đỡ. Trong những điều kiện đó, rất khó để các tập đoàn châu Âu cạnh tranh lại được ». Nga-Mỹ ngầm bắt tay hợp tác trên lưng Ukraina Riêng có Ukraina là một hồ sơ mà chủ nhân Nhà Trắng liên tục theo dõi từ ngày đầu trở lại cầm quyền : Donald Trump từng khẳng định chỉ cần 24 giờ để chấm dứt chiến tranh, nhưng mọi việc kéo dài hơn ông mong đợi. Cũng trong nỗ lực vãn hồi hòa bình tại Ukraina, tổng thống Mỹ đã mời nguyên thủ Nga sang Alaska tháng 8/2025. Nhưng kết quả vẫn chưa đi đến đâu. Tổng thống Trump bắt đầu « mất kiên nhẫn » trên vấn đề Ukraina. Điều đó không cấm cản Washington và Matxcơva âm thầm thúc đẩy hợp tác kinh tế. Báo The Wall Street Journal tuần trước thậm chí cho rằng các dự án hợp tác kinh tế giữa hai bên hiện đã đạt mức độ rất cụ thể, liên quan trực tiếp đến một số nhà tài phiệt Nga, đến một mỏ khí đốt tại Sakhalin, tại vùng biển Okhotsk, thuộc vùng Viễn Đông Nga. Về phía Matxcơva, từ tháng 2/2025 tổng thống Vladimir Putin đã chủ trì một cuộc họp về khai thác đất hiếm và đã đề cập đến các mỏ tài nguyên tại « những vùng lãnh thổ mới » tên mà Matxcơva gọi các vùng lãnh thổ vừa chiếm được của Ukraina, và để ngỏ khả năng mời các đối tác Mỹ cùng tham dự. Căn cứ vào các thông tin từ báo tài chính Mỹ, vào lúc Hoa Kỳ gây áp lực với Ấn Độ đòi New Delhi ngừng hay hạn chế mua vào dầu hỏa của Nga, chính quyền Donald Trump lại âm thầm đàm phán với Matxcơva cũng về năng lượng và dầu khí !

Despite a year marked by tariff battles, confusion over Washington's China policy, and the shock of the 2025 India–Pakistan war, one part of the U.S.–India relationship has held firm: bilateral defense cooperation. The two sides recently announced a new defense framework, are deepening links between their private sectors, and are boosting military-to-military ties. To review the state of the U.S.-India defense relationship and to help unpack the secrets of its success, Milan is joined on the show this week by Sameer Lalwani. Sameer is a senior advisor with the Special Competitive Studies Project and a non-resident senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund.Sameer and Milan discuss how the U.S.-India defense partnership has survived the general tumult in the relationship, the significance of a recently signed defense framework agreement, and the future of defense co-production and co-development. Plus, the two discuss Inda's lessons learned from Operation Sindoor and whether China still serves as the glue that keep these two powers together.Watch this episode on YouTube.Episode notes:1. Sameer Lalwani, “Don't Call it a Comeback: Why US-India Relations are Due for a Rebound,” Special Competitive Studies Project, November 20, 2025.2. Sameer Lalwani and Vikram J. Singh, “How to Get the Most Out of the U.S.-Indian Defense Partnership,” War on the Rocks, February 11, 2025.3. “Why Washington Is Wooing Pakistan (with Uzair Younus),” Grand Tamasha, October 1, 2025.4. “From Convergence to Confrontation: Trump's India Gambit (with Ashley J. Tellis),” Grand Tamasha, September 24, 2025.5. “Can Europe be India's Plan B? (with James Crabtree),” Grand Tamasha, September 17, 2025.6. “How This India-Pakistan Conflict Will Shape the Next One (with Joshua White),” Grand Tamasha, May 21, 2025.7. “Operation Sindoor and South Asia's Uncertain Future (with Christopher Clary),” Grand Tamasha, May 14, 2025.

Max Bergmann sits down with Abraham Newman and Kristine Berzina for a rapid-reaction conversation about the newly released U.S. National Security Strategy (NSS), its implications for the European security landscape, and the key clash at the forefront of transatlantic tech relations.  The live video episode was recorded on Monday, December 9, 2025. Abraham Newman is the director of the BMW Center for German and European Studies and John Powers Chair in International Business Diplomacy at Georgetown University. Kristine Berzina is a senior fellow for U.S. Defense and Transatlantic Security at the German Marshall Fund in Washington DC.   Watch the live event on demand here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFS5L81uzfA    Reach out to our team with any questions affecting Europe, or to share feedback on the show. We want to hear from you!   Email: erep@csis.org     X:   @csiserep       Bluesky: @erep.csis.org 

The Trump administration's new National Security Strategy is causing a stir in Europe with its searing critique of America's closest allies, including a warning that the continent is facing “civilizational decline”. Ian Lesser, the vice president and Brussels chief of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, joins Thanos Davelis as we take a closer look at what some are already calling the “mother of all wake-up calls” from Washington toward Europe.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Trump Administration Says Europe Faces ‘Civilizational Erasure'Trump warns Europe faces ‘civilizational erasure' in explosive new documentU.S. Flips History by Casting Europe—Not Russia—as Villain in New Security PolicyFarmers step up road blockades across GreecePM urges farmers to scale back protests, promises payments by year-endTurkey, US will find way of removing CAATSA sanctions ‘very soon', Turkish FM says

Die neue Nationale Sicherheitsstrategie der US-Regierung unter Donald Trump gleicht einer Drohung gegenüber Europa. Ganz ohne Umschweife fordert die Administration in Washington eine radikale Kurskorrektur der europäischen Politik und warnt vor einer „zivilisatorischen Auslöschung“. Claudia Major vom German Marshall Fund analysiert gemeinsam mit Michael Bröcker die strategische Bedeutung für die transatlantischen Beziehungen. Major erinnert an die umstrittene Rede des US-Vizepräsidenten auf der Münchner Sicherheitskonferenz: „Letztlich könnte man fast sagen, diese Strategie ist eine ausformulierte, detailliertere Version dieser Vance-Rede.“[01:04]Bundeskanzler Friedrich Merz hat in Israel Premierminister Benjamin Netanjahu getroffen. Merz plädiert nach wie vor für eine Zwei-Staaten-Lösung. Markus Bickel, Redaktionsleiter des Security.Table, ordnet die diplomatischen Nuancen der Reise und Merz' neue Wortwahl in der Israel-Politik ein. Der Kanzler hat mehrfach vom „unveränderlichen Wesenskern“ gesprochen. [13:34]Hol Dir deine persönlichen Daten mit Incogni zurück! Gib einfach den Code TABLETODAY über den Link unten ein und hol dir 60 % Rabatt auf ein Jahresabo:https://incogni.com/tabletoday Hier geht es zur Anmeldung für den Space.TableTable Briefings - For better informed decisions.Sie entscheiden besser, weil Sie besser informiert sind – das ist das Ziel von Table.Briefings. Wir verschaffen Ihnen mit jedem Professional Briefing, mit jeder Analyse und mit jedem Hintergrundstück einen Informationsvorsprung, am besten sogar einen Wettbewerbsvorteil. Table.Briefings bietet „Deep Journalism“, wir verbinden den Qualitätsanspruch von Leitmedien mit der Tiefenschärfe von Fachinformationen. Professional Briefings kostenlos kennenlernen: table.media/testenHier geht es zu unseren WerbepartnernImpressum: https://table.media/impressumDatenschutz: https://table.media/datenschutzerklaerungBei Interesse an Audio-Werbung in diesem Podcast melden Sie sich gerne bei Laurence Donath: laurence.donath@table.media Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In this special live pod, Ray and Jim were joined by two distinguished guests: Former Japanese Ambassador to Australia Shingo Yamagami and Bonnie Glaser, Director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the U.S. Together, they unpack China's escalating diplomatic offensive against Japan following PM Sanae Takaichi's recent statements about Taiwan.​What Sparked the CrisisEp. 114 centers on Takaichi's remarks in the Japanese Diet, where she responded to a hypothetical question about a Taiwan blockade scenario. She stated that if China imposed a blockade around Taiwan and the U.S. intervened, Japan could classify the situation as an "existence-threatening situation" under its national security legislation-potentially allowing deployment of Japan's Self-Defense Forces. Shingo emphasized this was not a policy change but a restatement of Japan's longstanding legal framework established a decade ago. Nevertheless, Beijing has reacted fiercely, labeling her comments an "unacceptable intervention" in China's domestic affairs.​China's Strategic CalculusBonnie explained that China's strong reaction stems from multiple factors: Xi Jinping's perceived loss of face after meeting Takaichi at the APEC summit, the 80th anniversary of WW2 amplifying anti-Japanese narratives, and concerns about Japan's military buildup in its Southwest Islands. China's broader message, she notes, is "kill the chicken to scare the monkey"-punishing Japan to deter other nations from challenging Beijing's red lines on Taiwan. China is also testing whether the United States will stand firmly behind its allies, seeking to drive wedges in the U.S.-Japan and other alliances.​The Stakes for Japan and the RegionShingo underscored Taiwan's vital strategic importance to Japan. If Taiwan falls under CCP control, the entire East China Sea would become contested territory, potentially forcing U.S. forces to retreat from Okinawa and fundamentally weakening Japan's defense posture. As former Prime Minister Abe famously stated: "A Taiwan contingency is a Japan contingency." Shingo also discussed the shocking details about a Chinese consul general's social media post threatening that Takaichi's "dirty neck will be chopped off"-unprecedented diplomatic intimidation that has only strengthened Japanese public support for the new prime minister, whose approval ratings have surged into the mid-70s.​The One China Policy vs. One China PrincipleThe discussion clarifies a critical distinction often misunderstood: The U.S. "One China policy" and those of other Western nations are fundamentally different from China's "One China principle." Neither the U.S. nor Japan has ever agreed that Taiwan is part of China-they merely "acknowledged" or "understood and respected" Beijing's position. China is now aggressively pushing countries to abandon their individual policies and adopt its principle, which holds Taiwan as an "inalienable" part of China.​Looking AheadBoth guests anticipate a prolonged chill in China-Japan relations. However, Shingo noted that China's economic vulnerabilities limit its coercion options-Beijing needs Japanese investment for its struggling economy. If Takaichi maintains her popularity and secures a strong political mandate, China may eventually be forced to engage with her government, as it did with the long-serving Abe administration. Glaser warns that China sees opportunity in a perceived U.S. decline and will continue pressuring allied coalitions, making unity among democratic partners more essential than ever.​

Eine ernüchternde Bilanz des Ukraine-Krieges.Zu Gast sind Claudia Major, Senior Vice President für Transatlantische Sicherheitsinitiativen des German Marshall Fund und Carlo Masala, Professor für Internationale Politik an der Bundeswehr-Universität München. Beide haben jüngst einen vielbeachteten SPIEGEL-Gastbeitrag veröffentlicht, in dem sie einen „neuen pragmatischen Westen“ fordern - mit Deutschland in einer zentralen Rolle. Im Gespräch liefern sie eine tiefgehende Analyse des Kriegsverlaufs, strategischer Versäumnisse und möglicher sicherheitspolitischer Szenarien, die Europa unmittelbar betreffen.Die zentrale Frage: Haben wir - Politik, Medien, Experten, Westen - die Lage zu lange zu optimistisch eingeschätzt? Und was bedeutet das für die Zukunft Europas? Zwischen enttäuschten Erwartungen, militärischen Fehlkalkulationen und der wachsenden Gefahr eines ausufernden Konflikts diskutieren Ronzheimer, Claudia Major und Carlo Masala schonungslos offen, ob ein Frieden überhaupt möglich ist – und zu welchem Preis.Ist der Westen noch handlungsfähig? Und wie viel Zeit bleibt Europa, bevor Russland den Konflikt über die Ukraine hinaus trägt?Wenn euch der Podcast gefällt, dann lasst gerne Like & Abo da! Ihr habt Fragen, Kritik oder Themenvorschläge? Schreibt an ronzheimer@axelspringer.comPaul auf Instagram | Paul auf XUnd ganz neu: Paul jetzt auch auf YouTube!Redaktion: Filipp Piatov & Lieven JenrichExecutive Producer: Daniel van Moll Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Die USA, die Ukraine, Europäer und Russland ringen derzeit um einen Plan, der den russischen Angriffskrieg in der Ukraine beenden soll. 28-Punkte hatten die USA offenbar gemeinsam mit Russland aufgeschrieben, nach Gesprächen mit der Ukraine sind laut aktuellen Berichten noch 19 übriggeblieben. Die Entwicklungen der vergangenen Tage, den aktuellen Stand der Dinge und die Lage in der Ukraine fasst Astrid Corall zunächst zusammen. Im Interview mit Host Kai Küstner bewertet dann Claudia Major, Senior Vice President für transatlantische Sicherheitsinitiativen beim German Marshall Fund, den ursprünglichen Plan, die potentiellen Folgen für Europa und die Änderungsvorschläge der Europäer. Sie nennt den 28-Punkte-Plan ein „Dokument der Großmachtpolitik“ der USA und Russlands, die über die Köpfe der Europäer und Ukrainer entschieden. “Für die Europäer ist es eine schwierige Nachricht, dass die USA sich als Verhandler, aber nicht mehr als Verbündeter, Alliierter Europas und der Ukraine sehen.” Es sei aber auch die Frage gerechtfertigt, warum es keinen europäischen Plan gab und die Europäer immer nur reagieren würden. Europa sei bislang nicht gewillt, seine wirtschaftlichen und militärischen Mittel auf den Tisch zu legen – oder habe sie nicht. Vor Schnellschüssen, nur um den Krieg zu beenden, warnt Claudia Major. Es müsse sichergestellt sein, dass ein verhandeltes Dokument nicht die “Keimzelle für den nächsten Krieg” sei. Lob und Kritik, alles bitte per Mail an streitkraefte@ndr.de Interview mit Claudia Majo vom German Marshall Fund: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/audio-338678.html Wer schrieb beim 28-Punkte-Plan mit? https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/nov/24/donald-trump-peace-plan-kremlin-ukraine Alle Folgen von “Streitkräfte und Strategien” https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast2998.html Bundesvibe über Wehrpflicht - jetzt streamen: https://1.ard.de/bundesvibe-wehrdienst

Dorka Takácsy is a researcher specializing in disinformation and propaganda across Central-Eastern Europe and Russia. She currently serves as a visiting fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and a research fellow at the Centre for Euro-Atlantic Integration and Democracy. As a PhD candidate at Corvinus University of Budapest, she explores Russian domestic disinformation targeting the West. Her recent roles include a Denton Transatlantic Fellowship at the Center for European Policy Analysis in Washington, a Visegrad-Taiwan Scholarship in 2024, and a Think Visegrad Fellowship in 2023 from the International Visegrad Fund. Dorka has built a robust professional background with experience at the European Parliament, the Political Capital Institute in Budapest, the National Defense University in Washington, and other institutions. She earned an MA in international relations from Central European University and a BA in international business from the Budapest Business School and the University of Picardy Jules Verne.----------LINKS:https://ceid.hu/about-3/dorka-takacsy/https://cepa.org/author/dorka-takacsy/https://www.gmfus.org/find-experts/dorka-takacsyhttps://conference.lvivmediaforum.com/speakers/dorka-takacsyLVIV MEDIA FORUM:The NGO Lviv Media Forum strengthens media, institutions, and public figures capable of fostering healthy public dialogue in Ukraine and beyond. Our goal is an effective and democratic society united by healthy communication. The organization was founded in 2013 to bring together media professionals from Ukraine and around the world in Lviv for the annual LMF conference. Over the years, we have grown into an ecosystem of people, organizations, and projects that support the media, develop comprehensive solutions for them, and promote the best media practices in Ukraine and globally. We are moving from supporting and developing media and journalists to a broader strategic focus: empowering communication actors, including media, civil society organizations, government bodies, and more. https://lvivmediaforum.com/enhttps://conference.lvivmediaforum.com/----------Your support is massively appreciated! SILICON CURTAIN LIVE EVENTS - FUNDRAISER CAMPAIGN Events in 2025 - Advocacy for a Ukrainian victory with Silicon CurtainNEXT EVENTS - LVIV, KYIV AND ODESA THIS MAY AND JUNE.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasOur first live events this year in Lviv and Kyiv were a huge success. Now we need to maintain this momentum, and change the tide towards a Ukrainian victory. The Silicon Curtain Roadshow is an ambitious campaign to run a minimum of 12 events in 2025, and potentially many more. We may add more venues to the program, depending on the success of the fundraising campaign. https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extrasWe need to scale up our support for Ukraine, and these events are designed to have a major impact. Your support in making it happen is greatly appreciated. All events will be recorded professionally and published for free on the Silicon Curtain channel. Where possible, we will also live-stream events.https://buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtain/extras----------SUPPORT THE CHANNEL:https://www.buymeacoffee.com/siliconcurtainhttps://www.patreon.com/siliconcurtain----------TRUSTED CHARITIES ON THE GROUND:Save Ukrainehttps://www.saveukraineua.org/Superhumans - Hospital for war traumashttps://superhumans.com/en/UNBROKEN - Treatment. Prosthesis. Rehabilitation for Ukrainians in Ukrainehttps://unbroken.org.ua/Come Back Alivehttps://savelife.in.ua/en/Chefs For Ukraine - World Central Kitchenhttps://wck.org/relief/activation-chefs-for-ukraineUNITED24 - An initiative of President Zelenskyyhttps://u24.gov.ua/Serhiy Prytula Charity Foundationhttps://prytulafoundation.orgNGO “Herojam Slava”https://heroiamslava.org/----------

The podcast traces the latest developments in energy policy between the United States and Europe, from Donald Trump's return to the White House to the Turnberry agreement of summer 2025, touching on transatlantic prospects toward China. Debating these dynamics are Douglas Hengel (non-resident senior fellow, German Marshall Fund of the US) and Margherita Bianchi (Head of the Energy, Climate, and Resources Program at the IAI).

When President Emmanuel Macron dissolved parliament in June 2024, he gambled that new elections might restore his control or expose the far right as unfit to govern. Instead, France has been stuck in a political stalemate – no clear majority, a restless opposition, and a public growing weary of the political chaos. To help us make sense of it all, I'm joined by Georgina Wright, Special Adviser to the President and Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund. We discuss why being Prime Minister might be the hardest job in France today, what this crisis means for Macron's presidency and his legacy, whether Marine Le Pen's presidency is more or less inevitable, and how the instability in Paris could reshape Europe's political landscape – from investor confidence to support for Ukraine. So, can anyone govern France, or will the political instability continue? Listen to our conversation. And if you enjoy what I do, please support me on Ko-fi! Thank you. ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://ko-fi.com/amatisak

Moldova's recent elections dealt another blow to Moscow's influence, but can its fragile democracy withstand the Kremlin's next moves? Across Eastern Europe, Ukraine fights for survival, Georgia teeters between Brussels and Moscow, and Russian interference looms over them all. What tools does Vladimir Putin still have to destabilize the region—and how can Europe and the United States help defend its newest democracies without overreaching?In this episode, Jacob Heilbrunn speaks with Shelby Magid, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center. Magid previously served at the German Marshall Fund of the United States and at the International Federation for Human Rights' office in The Hague, where she worked with the International Criminal Court and conducted research on human rights violations.Music by Aleksey Chistilin from Pixabay

On this episode of #TheGlobalExchange, we make available the webinar CGAI held last week, Trump, Trade and Foreign Affairs. Featuring keynote speaker Bruce Stokes, and panelists Martha Hall Findlay, Louise Blais and Perrin Beatty PC OC, we discuss the ever-evolving relationship between the United States, Canada and the world. For Bruce's keynote, please see PowerPoint slides on our website! // Participants' bios - Bruce Stokes is Visiting Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States - Martha Hall Findlay is the Director of the School of Public Policy at the University of Calgary - Perrin Beatty PC OC is the former President & CEO of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce - Louise Blais is former Ambassador to the United Nations and Consul to Atlanta // Host bio: Colin Robertson is a former diplomat and Senior Advisor to the Canadian Global Affairs Institute. // Reading Recommendations: - "The West Wing" TV Series - "Abundance" by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson - "The Fur Trade in Canada" by Harold Innis - "Charter and Supplemental Charter of The Hudson's Bay Company" by Hudson's Bay Company // Music Credit: Drew Phillips | Producer: Jordyn Carroll // Recording Date: October 01, 2025 Release date: October 06, 2025

Turkey has hailed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's first White House visit in six years as a diplomatic win, though tensions over Donald Trump's support for Israel's war in Gaza still cast a shadow. Ankara is celebrating a diplomatic win after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was hosted by US President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday. In the Oval Office, Trump praised his guest in front of the world's media. “He's a highly respected man,” Trump said. “He's respected very much in his country and throughout Europe and throughout the world, where they know him.” Erdogan smiled as he listened. The Turkish leader had been frozen out by President Joe Biden, who made clear his dislike for the Turkish leader. Trump, by contrast, has long cultivated a friendship with him. But even that relationship has limits, with Israel's war on Gaza still a source of strain. Turkey walks a tightrope as Trump threatens sanctions over Russian trade Restraint over Gaza Erdogan is a strong supporter of Hamas, which he refuses to label a terrorist group, calling it instead a resistance movement. Yet he chose not to let the issue overshadow his visit. Analysts say this restraint was deliberate. “There's been a concerted effort not to get into a spat about Gaza,” Asli Aydintasbas, of the Washington-based Brookings Institution, told RFI. “Uncharacteristically, he remains silent on the Gaza issue and that is by design.” During his trip, Erdogan kept his criticism of Israel's offensive in Gaza to remarks at the UN General Assembly, echoing broader international condemnation. He also met French President Emmanuel Macron in New York and welcomed France's recognition of a Palestinian state. Erdogan is also seeking wider backing as concerns over Israel's actions grow, an issue that also came up in his talks with Trump. “Turkey's concerns with Israel are not actually limited to Gaza,” said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara. He said Ankara is also uneasy about Israel's actions in neighbouring states, adding that the two countries' policies towards Syria clash sharply. “Turkey wants a stable Syria and one that's centralised,” he said. “Whereas Israel wants a decentralised and less stable Syria.” Turkey warns Kurdish-led fighters in Syria to join new regime or face attack Energy and Russia Turkey's close ties with Russia risk becoming another flashpoint. Sitting beside Erdogan at the Oval Office, Trump called for an end to Turkish purchases of Russian energy. He also criticised Erdogan's long-standing policy of balancing relations between Washington and Moscow. “Trump does not want a balancing Turkey, at least today,” said Aydintasbas. “That was more obvious than ever in his rhetoric and his dealings with Erdogan.” She said Erdogan had assumed for the past decade that his balancing act between the West and Russia was acceptable. “It must come as a surprise,” she added. Turkey is the third-largest importer of Russian oil and gas. But in a move seen as an attempt to placate Trump, Ankara this week signed a multibillion-dollar deal to buy US liquefied natural gas over 20 years. The two leaders also signed a strategic agreement on civil nuclear cooperation, which could pave the way for Turkey to buy US-made nuclear reactors. As Trump rails at UN and shifts Ukraine stance, Macron urges US to end Gaza war Limited gains Despite these gestures, analysts said Erdogan achieved little in return. He had hoped Trump would lift a US embargo on the sale of F-35 stealth fighter jets. Instead, Trump only gave a vague promise to address the issue. For Erdogan, however, the White House meeting itself may have been the main prize. US Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack said before the meeting that Trump wanted to give Erdogan “legitimacy”. “For Erdogan, this is a big win,” said Sinan Ciddi, of the Foundation for Defence of Democracies. The Turkish leader, he said, has long sought a White House photo-op to showcase at home. “He gets to show that he has met the US president, has gravitas on the world stage and is signing deals with Washington,” Ciddi added. “At a time when he is jailing leaders and dismantling democratic governance inside Turkey, he is being legitimised by the leader of the so-called free world.”

Just this week, Shabana Mahmood, the Home Secretary, has made a fresh effort to remove migrants arriving from the English Channel with the Government's one-in-one-out agreement with France. So this week on Westminster Insider, host Sascha O'Sullivan finds out why it's so hard – and who is really in control. She speaks to former Home Secretary James Cleverly who explains the thinking behind the controversial Rwanda plan and how it clashed with the courts. Glyn Williams, a top civil servant at the Home Office for more than a decade, tells Sascha the European Convention of Human Rights frustrated the department's ability to deport people and explains how the fight to stop the boats has changed since it was declared a 'national emergency' by former Home Secretary Sajid Javid in 2018. Nicola Kelly, author of Anywhere but Here and former Home Office press officer, explains why processing has always been such a pinch point in the asylum system. And lawyer Joe Middleton KC, head of immigration and human rights law at Doughty Street, takes Sascha through the appeals process available to migrants rejected by the Home Office. Andrew Harding, BBC Paris Correspondent, tells Sascha how powerful the gangs are and how clever they are in adapting to any efforts to stop migrants crossing at the Channel. And Sascha speaks to Georgina Wright, special advisor at the German Marshall Fund, a European think tank, about whether France is as concerned with boat crossings as the Brits. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week, Staś Kaleta is joined by Noah Barkin to discuss the EU's strategy for China – after Donald Trump's NATO ultimatum demanding China tariffs, as well as Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Poland. Barkin is a Senior Advisor in Rhodium Group's China practice and a Visiting Senior Fellow in the Indo-Pacific Programme at the German Marshall Fund.This podcast was recorded in Warsaw on the sidelines of our Europe Future Forum, a platform to explore the Polish perspective on key European issues. It invites the participation of 200+ policymakers, directors of public policies and other influential stakeholders: https://europefuture.forum/

Interview with Sameer Lalwani — 27:32 This week, Kelly and Tristan cover Israel's unprecedented strike on Hamas leaders in Doha and the diplomatic fallout for Qatar and the Gaza ceasefire talks, the historic trial of Brazil's former president Jair Bolsonaro and what it means for democratic resilience, and Beijing's memory-politics summit—complete with a military parade and a guest list signaling China's preferred world order. Kelly is then joined by Sameer Lalwani for a deep dive on U.S.–India relations—why the partnership soared over the past decade, how new U.S. tariffs, the India-Pakistan war, and Modi's optics-heavy outreach to Beijing and Moscow have strained ties, and what to watch ahead of a potential Quad leaders' summit. Sameer Lalwani is a Senior Fellow with the German Marshall Fund's Indo-Pacific Program, a Senior Advisor to the Special Competitive Studies Project, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow with the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, and a research affiliate with MIT's Security Studies Program. His work focuses on deterrence, conventional military competition, technology alliances, and Indo-Pacific security, and he is a contributing editor at War on the Rocks. Read more about Lalwani's work: https://www.gmfus.org/find-experts/sameer-lalwani  The opinions expressed in this conversation are strictly those of the participants and do not represent the views of Georgetown University or any government entity. Produced by Abdalla Nasef and Freddie Mallinson.  Recorded on September 10, 2025. Diplomatic Immunity, a podcast from the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy at Georgetown University, brings you frank and candid conversations with experts on the issues facing diplomats and national security decision-makers around the world. Funding support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York. For more, visit our website, and follow us on Linkedin, Twitter @GUDiplomacy, and Instagram @isd.georgetown

durée : 00:57:58 - Cultures Monde - par : Julie Gacon, Mélanie Chalandon - Trump poursuit son rêve de paix au Moyen-Orient, mais les tensions régionales rendent sa stratégie incertaine. Son slogan « faire des affaires, pas la guerre » semble de plus en plus difficile à tenir. - réalisation : Vivian Lecuivre - invités : Rym Momtaz Rédactrice en chef de la plateforme Strategic Europe chez Carnegie; Martin Quencez Directeur du bureau de Paris du think tank German Marshall Fund des États-Unis (GMF); Jérôme Viala-Gaudefroy Docteur en civilisation américaine, chargé de cours à Sciences Po

Robert Ward hosts Dr Chijiwa Yasuaki, Chief, International Conflict Division, National Institute for Defence Studies (NIDS), Ministry of Defence, Dr Jennifer Lind, Associate Professor in the Department of Government at Dartmouth, and Dr Sayuri Romei, Senior Fellow in the German Marshall Fund, GMF, Indo-Pacific Program. They discuss the evolution of Japan's post-war defence policy in light of the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Robert, Yasuaki, Jennifer and Sayuri discuss:  Evolution of Japan's defence policy — shift from post-war defensive defence doctrine to recent adoption of counter-strike capability, expanded defence budget and multi-domain defence forceRole of external environment and alliances — China's rise, North Korea's threat, Russia's actions and shifting US commitments shaping Japan's security trajectoryDomestic politics and public opinion — gradual change in attitudes, reduced resistance to defence reforms and evolving consensus on stronger defence postureUS-Japan alliance deepening — institutional developments, interoperability improvements, establishment of joint command structures, people-to-people ties strengthening alliance foundationsWe hope you enjoy the episode and please follow, rate, and subscribe to Japan Memo on your podcast platform of choice. If you have any comments or questions, please contact us at japanchair@iiss.org. Date recorded: 6 August 2025 Japan Memo is recorded and produced at the IISS in London.  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

C dans l'air l'invitée du 5 septembre 2025 avec Georgina Wright, spécialiste des questions européennes au German Marshall Fund, un think tank transatlantique.Depuis le mois de juillet et l'agression sexuelle présumée d'un demandeur d'asile sur une adolescente, l'accueil de réfugiés dans des hôtels suscite une grogne grandissante à travers le Royaume-Uni. Il s'agit du point de départ d'une vague de manifestations anti-immigration sans précédent outre-Manche. Plusieurs hôtels britanniques sont le théâtre de rassemblements contre l'accueil de réfugiés. Depuis 2022, c'est dans ces hôtels, sur initiative des conservateurs alors au pouvoir, que les demandeurs d'asile sont hébergés, faute de logements d'urgence suffisants. Ils sont aujourd'hui 32 000 à vivre dans 200 hôtels à travers le pays.Un ressentiment contre les immigrés qui pullule sur les réseaux sociaux et notamment entretenu par le coût pour l'État britannique de l'hébergement des réfugiés, estimé à plus de 4,7 milliards de livres sterling (5,4 milliards d'euros) par an. Sur le plan politique, le parti d'extrême droite Reform UK et son leader Nigel Farage - qui caracole en tête des enquêtes d'opinion - n'ont eu cesse de souffler sur les braises du mécontentement. Alors que les conservateurs emboîtent le pas de Reform, à l'image de Robert Jenrick, ancien ministre de l'Immigration de Rishi Sunak, qui s'est déplacé à Epping pour soutenir les manifestants, les travaillistes de Keir Starmer sont tiraillés entre fermeté anti-immigration et nécessité de répondre à la crise de la politique d'asile. Entre juin 2024 et juin 2025, 111 084 personnes ont demandé l'asile au Royaume-Uni, selon le Home Office (ministère de l'Intérieur) soit une hausse de 14 % sur un an. Georgina Wright analysera avec nous la portée de ces manifestations anti-migrants au Royaume-Uni, et ce qu'elles révèlent du sentiment d'une partie de la population d'une immigration incontrôlée. Elle reviendra aussi sur les propositions du parti Refom UK de Nigel Farage, et sur son influence sur la politique britannique. Elle nous donnera enfin son analyse de la montée des extrêmes-droites en Europe, et sur ce que ce phénomène révèle sur nos sociétés.

An Tag 1289 des russischen Angriffskrieges gegen die Ukraine geht es im Podcast um die Frage, wie das Land für die Zukunft abgesichert werden kann. Sollte es tatsächlich zu einem Frieden kommen, erwartet das Land diesmal Garantien, damit Russland nicht erneut seine Zusagen bricht und das Land angreift. Laut Frankreichs Präsident Macron sind 26 Staaten bereit, Truppen in die Ukraine zur Absicherung eines Waffenstillstands zu schicken. Ein starkes politisches Signal, in der Umsetzung aber mit vielen Unsicherheiten. Deutschland beispielsweise macht seine Beteiligung von der Verlässlichkeit der USA abhängig. Was die Europäer vorschlagen, sei ein Kompromiss, aber keine wirkliche Schutzgarantie, analysiert die Politikwissenschaftlerin Claudia Major im Podcast, weil ihnen die militärischen Mittel fehlten: "Das ist das, was geht, aber nicht das, was man eigentlich bräuchte, um die Ukraine tatsächlich zu schützen.” Claudia Major ist Senior Vice President für Transatlantische Sicherheitsinitiativen des German Marshall Fund. Die Möglichkeiten für einen dauerhaften Frieden schätzt sie im Moment eher gering ein, solange Russland keine Zugeständnisse macht und die USA sich aus der europäischen Verteidigung zurückziehen. „Eine verlässliche US-Zusage, die auch morgen und übermorgen noch hält, die haben wir noch nicht.“ Darunter leidet täglich die zivile Bevölkerung durch Luftangriffe. Gleichzeitig kämpfen die zunehmend älteren ukrainischen Soldaten schon seit Monaten unter russischem Dauerbeschuss. Ein weiteres Problem sind Desertionen an der Front. „Allein in den ersten sieben Monaten dieses Jahres sollen 110.000 ukrainische Soldaten geflüchtet sein“, schildert Stefan Niemann im Gespräch mit Kai Küstner. Im Podcast geht es auch um die neue Weltordnung, über die sich in China die Machthaber Xi Jinping, Wladimir Putin und Kim Jong Un ausgetauscht haben. „Podcast Live“ am 22.9. 17 Uhr mit Vassili Golod, Stefan Niemann, Kai Küstner und Astrid Corall Sachsentor 23, 21029 Hamburg in Hamburg Bergedorf Anmeldung bitte per Mail: streitkraefte@ndr.de Das Ringen um Sicherheitsgarantien: https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/ukraine-sicherheitsgarantien-100.html Das ist die „Koalition der Willigen“: https://www.gmfus.org/news/coalition-willing Das ganze Interview mit Claudia Major: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/sicherheitsexpertin-major-das-sind-keine-wirklichen-garantien,audio-277760.html Kommentar von Claudia Major im Handelsblatt über Deutschlands historische Verantwortung: https://www.handelsblatt.com/meinung/kolumnen/geoeconomics-deutsche-soldaten-in-der-ukraine-die-historie-ist-keine-ausrede/100152530.html Podcast-Tipp: Kunstverbrechen – Van Gogh und die Mafia: https://1.ard.de/kunstverbrechen-staffel-4?cp Alle Folgen von “Streitkräfte und Strategien”: https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/podcast2998.html

In this episode Dominic Bowen and Dr. Jamie Shea unpack NATO at a moment of historic change. Find out more about how fear has re-emerged as a unifying force within the Alliance, the political and economic challenges of reaching unprecedented defence spending levels, industrial bottlenecks and Ukraine's role as a partner in innovation and supply, the rising threat of hybrid warfare from cyberattacks to sabotage and disinformation, the volatility of United States diplomacy and the implications of a “big three” world dominated by Washington, Moscow, and Beijing, the long-term challenge of sustaining support for Ukraine, NATO's expanding ties with the Asia-Pacific, and the future of medium powers seeking autonomy in an era of great power competition, and more.Dr. Jamie Shea CMG is Professor at the College of Europe Natolin, Senior Fellow for security and defence at Friends of Europe, and Senior Advisor at the European Policy Centre in Brussels. He is also Senior Counsel to the Founder and CEO of Fanack/The Chronicle and Fanack Water. Previously, Dr. Shea was Professor of Strategy and Security at the University of Exeter, and for 38 years he served as a member of NATO's International Staff, holding senior positions including Deputy Assistant Secretary General for Emerging Security Challenges, Director of Policy Planning, and NATO Spokesman. He has also taught at institutions including the College of Europe in Bruges, the University of Sussex, and the American University in Washington DC, and is a Senior Transatlantic Fellow of the German Marshall Fund and Associate Fellow at Chatham House.The International Risk Podcast brings you conversations with global experts, frontline practitioners, and senior decision-makers who are shaping how we understand and respond to international risk. From geopolitical volatility and organised crime, to cybersecurity threats and hybrid warfare, each episode explores the forces transforming our world and what smart leaders must do to navigate them. Whether you're a board member, policymaker, or risk professional, The International Risk Podcast delivers actionable insights, sharp analysis, and real-world stories that matter. The International Risk Podcast – Reducing risk by increasing knowledge.Follow us on LinkedIn and Subscribe for all our updates!Tell us what you liked!

Die ganze Welt redet plötzlich über „Sicherheitsgarantien“ für die Ukraine! Aber was bedeuten sie? Was müsste Deutschland leisten und wären wir am Ende sogar bereit, Soldaten zu schicken?Paul spricht darüber mit Claudia Major, Sicherheitsexpertin vom German Marshall Fund. Sie erklärt, warum echte Garantien eine Art „Lebensversicherung“ für die Ukraine wären, welche militärischen Dimensionen das hätte und weshalb Europa ohne die USA kaum handlungsfähig ist. Außerdem: Warum ein halbgarer Waffenstillstand ein neues „Minsk“ wäre und wie groß die Gefahr ist, dass Russland genau darauf setzt.Eine Folge über Glaubwürdigkeit, Abschreckung und die entscheidende Frage: Was ist Europas Sicherheit wert?Wenn euch der Podcast gefällt, dann lasst gerne Like & Abo da!Ihr habt Fragen, Kritik oder Themenvorschläge? Schreibt an ronzheimer@axelspringer.comPaul auf Instagram | Paul auf X Redaktion: Filipp Piatov & Lieven JenrichPost Production: Lieven JenrichExecutive Producer: Daniel van Moll Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

« Objectif Mars », « Mars, la nouvelle frontière de la conquête spatiale », titre le Nouvel Obs, avec en Une, une splendide photo, celle d'une planète où se mêlent harmonieusement l'orange et le rouge. Un peu comme dans un rêve, mais ne rêvons pas trop longtemps, car la réalité se mesure en termes de puissance et d'argent. « La planète Mars est aujourd'hui le Graal intersidéral, nous dit le Nouvel Obs, le terrain des grandes puissances, avec la Chine comme nouvel acteur. L'Amérique de Trump en a fait son nouveau fétiche, promettant les premiers pas de l'homme sur Mars d'ici à 2029, avant la fin du mandat du président. »  Qu'importe si tous les scientifiques s'accordent à dire que c'est parfaitement impossible. Donald Trump y croit-il lui-même ? En tout cas, il mène le jeu comme n'importe quelle autre affaire commerciale. « Trump et ses amis de la tech mettent en danger les programmes de la Nasa basés sur la coopération internationale, pour privilégier les progrès strictement nationaux, nous explique le Nouvel Obs. « Derrière les accents triomphants annonçant la colonisation de Mars pour les prochaines années (…) se cache la captation des crédits publics par quelques "entreprises amies", celles des barons de la tech qui ont soutenu la campagne de Trump, avec en tête Elon Musk avec Space X et Jeff Bezos avec Blue Origin. ».Les passionnés, qui regardent la planète rouge avec des yeux d'enfant, en seront pour leurs frais. À lire aussiIl y a 60 ans, la sonde Mariner 4 révélait à l'humanité le vrai visage de Mars La fin de la guerre ? Après l'annonce d'une rencontre entre Trump et Poutine le 15 août en Alaska, le Journal du Dimanche (JDD) pose la question : « Et si la guerre se terminait la semaine prochaine ? », question faussement innocente, car l'analyse qui suit tend plutôt à démontrer le contraire. « Personne ne peut croire que la paix soit l'issue de ce tête-à-tête », estime le JDD. La Tribune Dimanche, de son côté, met l'accent sur ce qu'elle estime être l'ambition première de Donald Trump : « le président américain se rêve en prix Nobel de la paix, et multiplie les initiatives pour y parvenir. Le sommet du 15 août avec Vladimir Poutine est un pas de plus sur le chemin de son ambition ». À la question « le sommet du 15 août pourrait-il accoucher du plus grand succès diplomatique de la seconde présidence Trump ?  David Salvo, analyste au German Marshall Fund, interrogé par la Tribune dimanche, répond : « Washington sous-estime à quel point le Kremlin veut continuer à mener cette guerre, la légitimité et le sort du régime poutinien ne dépendent pas seulement de la fin de ce conflit aux conditions dictées par la Russie, mais à sa prolongation jusqu'à nouvel ordre, avec une économie entièrement consacrée à cette guerre ».   Bref, personne ne croit vraiment à un miracle pour le 15 août. À lire aussiUkraine: «Il n'y a qu'au prix de conditions favorables à la Russie que Poutine pourrait mettre fin au conflit» L'appétit du géant russe La guerre en Ukraine que les pays baltes suivent avec une attention particulière. L'Express s'est rendu en Estonie, le plus petit des trois pays baltes qui comptent aussi la Lettonie et la Lituanie. L'Estonie (avec moins d'1,35 million d'habitants) qui partage « 300 kilomètres de ligne de démarcation avec la Russie », « une frontière de tous les dangers, explique le Nouvel Obs, face à ce grand voisin avide de conquêtes. » « L'Otan pourrait être testée sur sa capacité à réagir "d'ici à cinq ans", répète son secrétaire général Mark Rutte », nous rappelle l'Express, qui a aussi consulté une récente étude de la Revue nationale stratégique française, « jugeant plausible une guerre majeure de haute intensité en Europe ».  Cette étude souligne aussi « que le renforcement de l'armée russe se poursuit de façon accélérée pour recompléter de nombreux matériels détruits en Ukraine, mais également pour développer de nouvelles capacités et renforcer son arsenal d'ici à 2030 ». L'Estonie, elle, ne peut guère compter que sur ses 4 000 militaires de métier et ses appelés. Et puis bien sûr, il y a l'Otan. Un officier américain, dont le régiment s'entraîne en Estonie, témoigne : « Nous sommes ici pour changer les calculs de l'adversaire, le dissuader d'une agression et respecter notre engagement de l'article 5 de l'Otan. » Article qui stipule « qu'une attaque contre un État appartenant à l'Alliance atlantique est une attaque contre tous. Et qu'elle ne restera pas sans réponse. » Mais cette perspective arrêtera-t-elle Vladimir Poutine ? Rien n'est moins sûr. « À quelle échéance les Russes pourraient-ils passer à l'action ? », interroge l'Express, qui cite une source sécuritaire, selon laquelle « les Russes n'ont pas besoin d'arrêter la guerre en Ukraine, il leur suffit d'amasser des unités à la frontière, puis de prendre une décision politique ». Une perspective effrayante pour l'Estonie, mais aussi la Lettonie et la Lituanie. À lire aussiUkraine: «Il n'y a qu'au prix de conditions favorables à la Russie que Poutine pourrait mettre fin au conflit»

Discussion Highlights:Post-Enlightenment era: Shift from fact-driven, technocratic politics to emotional, myth-based narratives; “new romanticism” as politics serving emotional needs.Tribal politics: Politics as moralized conflict; unconditional leader loyalty; democratic norms waived as “necessary” in existential struggle; disinformation and conspiracy theories as tools of tribal mobilization.Free speech charade: How authoritarian leaders and tech moguls exploit “free speech” rhetoric to delegitimise content moderation; selective censorship in global social media platforms.Hungary's 2026 elections: Fidesz's entrenched media control; opposition lead in polls amid corruption scandals and economic woes; risk of electoral-system tweaks if the gap widens.Ukraine-fear campaign: Government-backed narratives linking EU/NATO enlargement to economic decline; pervasive anti-Ukrainian sentiment despite public sympathy and solidarity efforts.Migration narratives: Contradictions in anti-migration rhetoric versus labour needs in German-owned Hungarian automotive plants; persistence of sovereignty-based appeals.Budapest Pride mobilisation: Over 200,000 participants signalling civil-society resilience; government attempts to cast Pride as a threat to “family values.”Europe's response: Internal EU disruptors like Hungary; need for flexible, united EU measures (e.g., qualified-majority votes); potential leverage via conditionality on EU funds.About Péter KrekóPéter Krekó (born 20 March 1980 in Budapest) is a Hungarian social psychologist and political scientist. He is Associate Professor (with habilitation) at the Department of Social Psychology and the Disinformation and Artificial Intelligence Research Lab at Eötvös Loránd University (ELTE) in Budapest Mores Horizon. Since 2011, he has directed the Budapest-based Political Capital Institute and serves as consortium leader for the Hungarian Digital Media Observatory (HDMO-Lakmusz), part of the European Digital Media Observatory (EDMO) network Democracy Institute. His research addresses disinformation, conspiracy theories, political populism, extremism, Russian influence, and political tribalism. He has held fellowships as Visiting Fellow, Engaging Central Europe at the German Marshall Fund of the United States; Europe's Futures Visiting Researcher at the Institute for Human Sciences, Vienna; PopBack Fellow at the University of Cambridge; non-resident Associate Fellow at Johns Hopkins SAIS Bologna; and Fulbright Visiting Professor at Indiana University (2016–2017) European Forum Alpbach. He is author of The Hungarian Far Right (Ibidem-Verlag, 2017, with Attila Juhász) and Mass Paranoia: The Social Psychology of Conspiracy Theories and False News (Athenaeum Kiadó, 2018) Read more on Péterat the Political Capital Instituteat the ELTE Disinformation & AI Research Labat the German Marshall FundFind him on X.com @PeterKreko Ivan Vejvoda is Head of the Europe's Futures program at the Institute for Human Sciences (IWM Vienna) implemented in partnership with ERSTE Foundation. The program is dedicated to the cultivation of knowledge and the generation of ideas addressing pivotal challenges confronting Europe and the European Union: nexus of borders and migration, deterioration in rule of law and democracy and European Union's enlargement prospects.The Institute for Human Sciences is an institute of advanced studies in the humanities and social sciences. Founded as a place of encounter in 1982 by a young Polish philosopher, Krzysztof Michalski, and two German colleagues in neutral Austria, its initial mission was to create a meeting place for dissenting thinkers of Eastern Europe and prominent scholars from the West.Since then it has promoted intellectual exchange across disciplines, between academia and society, and among regions that now embrace the Global South and North. The IWM is an independent and non-partisan institution, and proudly so. All of our fellows, visiting and permanent, pursue their own research in an environment designed to enrich their work and to render it more accessible within and beyond academia.For further information about the Institute:https://www.iwm.at/

The United States and China wrapped up the third round of high-level trade negotiations earlier this week. American and Chinese negotiators met in Stockholm on July 28 and 29. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the talks as constructive and wide ranging. He acknowledged that an extension of the 90-day tariff pause was discussed but said that the final decision was up to President Trump.  As of today – August 1 – Trump has remained mum. The Chinese side's readout was devoid of details, although China's vice minister of commerce said that both countries would continue to push for an extension of the reciprocal tariffs and Chinese countermeasures.How should we assess the dynamics in the trade talks, including the balance of leverage between Washington and Beijing? And how might the trade negotiations shape the future of the US-China relationship? To discuss these questions, we are joined by Dr. Scott Kennedy. Scott is senior adviser and trustee chair in Chinese Business and Economics at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Timestamps[00:00] Start[02:06] Lessons Learned from Trump's First Administration[05:20] Chinese Outlook on Future Economic Policy[09:28] Who's Winning the Trade War?[14:30] China's Reactions to Transshipment Provisions[18:18] Bessent's Rebalancing Plans [24:14] Challenges to Chinese Investment in the US [29:15] China's Trade Deal Goals

Earlier this week it seems President Trump took a new stance on Ukraine, announcing a new plan to speed weapons to the war-torn country along with the threat of a new round of punishing sanctions. At the same time, he doubled down on tariffs this past weekend, threatening 30% tariffs on the EU. Ian Lesser, the vice president and Brussels chief of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, joins Thanos Davelis to look into what these shifts mean for Europe.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Trump's Shift on Ukraine Is Good News for Europe, for NowTrump intensifies trade war with threat of 30% tariffs on EU, MexicoEurope's freedom faces greatest threat since WW2, Macron saysTurkish court sentences Erdoğan's top rival to almost 2 years in prisonTourism receipts fall despite visitor surge

For years, foreign adversaries have worked to spread misinformation. The German Marshall Fund found that Russia, China and others are becoming more effective at it, targeting state and local governments. North Carolina is one of those targets, and social media is aiding the spread.

We're turning our attention to the Hague today, where NATO leaders are gathering this week for a two day summit. While European allies - keen to avoid clashing with President Trump - already agreed to Washington's demands that they increase defense spending, key questions loom over Ukraine, the Middle East, and the future of the transatlantic alliance. Ian Lesser, the vice president and Brussels chief of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, joins Thanos Davelis as we look into what's at stake at this summit.You can read the articles we discuss on our podcast here:Weathering the Storm: The Hague Summit and the Future of NATONATO members agree to increase defense spending to 5%How Europe would fill an America-shaped hole in NATOIranian spies target bases on Crete and CyprusLive Updates: Israel and Iran Agree to Cease-Fire Announced by TrumpIsrael accuses Iran of violating ceasefire, vows to 'respond forcefully'

In February 2022, Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. China has never condemned the invasion, and its government and media have carefully avoided using term “Ukraine War,” opting instead to refer to the war as the “Ukraine crisis,” the “Russia-Ukraine conflict,” or the “special military operation,” a term that echoes Moscow's language. Beijing's approach to the Ukraine War has included support for Russia, a commitment China's own principles, including respecting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and a professed desire for peace.This episode's discussion will focus on China's evolving posture toward the war and China's relationship with Ukraine. Joining the podcast this episode is Dr. Vita Golod, who is a Junior Research Fellow at the A. Yu Krymskyi Institute of Oriental Studies, National Academy Sciences of Ukraine, and a Visiting Adjunct Instructor at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.She is also the co-founder of the Ukrainian Platform for Contemporary China and a board member of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:35] China's Relationship with Ukraine Prior to Russia's Invasion[05:06] President Zelenskyy's Accusations Against China [08:20] Contemporary Ukrainian Perceptions of Relations with China [12:14] Ukrainian Perceptions of Sino-Russian Relations[16:25] China as a Mediator and Peacemaker[19:06] China's Interests in the Outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian War[21:21] What concrete steps could China take to facilitate peace? [23:14] China's Role in the Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine[28:08] The Future of Sino-Ukrainian Relations

durée : 00:58:51 - Affaires étrangères - par : Christine Ockrent - Quels scénarios possibles pour Israël et pour l'Iran ? Si l'ambigüité du président Donald Trump peut être une arme, l'indécision et l'imprévisibilité déstabilisent tous les protagonistes. Entre le Moyen-Orient et l'Ukraine, sera-t-il plus difficile encore de définir des priorités communes ? - réalisation : Luc-Jean Reynaud - invités : Dorothée Schmid Responsable du programme Turquie/Moyen-Orient de l'IFRI; Bruno Tertrais Directeur adjoint de la Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique et conseiller géopolitique à l'Institut Montaigne; Martin Quencez Directeur du bureau de Paris du German Marshall Fund et spécialiste de la politique étrangère américaine.; Clément Therme Chargé d'enseignement à l'Université Paul Valéry de Montpellier et à Sciences Po Paris 

Detroit City FC: Where 7,000 strong pack the stands — and a bold new soccer stadium is on the way.Detroit City Football Club is Detroit's professional soccer team and has established itself as one of the most talked about soccer teams in North America. The club has generated media coverage from publications across the globe. CEO Sean Mann has been involved in every facet of the growing organization, including Detroit City Fieldhouse and City Clubhouse. Sean also shares his unique career path from a background in the state legislature, to a German Marshall Fund of the United States fellowship and more. 

On April 22, 2025, gunmen in the town of Pahalgam, located in the disputed region of Kashmir, killed 26 people—mostly Indian tourists. A four-day military clash between India and Pakistan ensued, bringing both countries to the brink of a full-blown war, before a ceasefire was reached on May 10, 2025. During the India-Pakistan clashes, Beijing urged both sides to deescalate and called for a “political settlement through peaceful means.” But China did not play a neutral role in the conflict. Consistent with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's purported statement to his Pakistani counterpart that “China fully understands Pakistan's legitimate security concerns and supports Pakistan in safeguarding its sovereignty and security interests,” China reportedly provided intelligence, satellite equipment, and other forms of support to Pakistan before and during the clashes.To analyze China's role in the conflict, host Bonnie Glaser is joined by Andrew Small. Andrew is a senior transatlantic fellow with GMF's Indo-Pacific program, and author of two books on China, including “The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics,” which is now ten years old, but remains an insightful and relevant study. Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:46] China's Diplomatic Response to the India-Pakistan Clashes[05:58] Beijing's Offer of Playing a “Constructive Role”[10:56] A Testing Ground for Chinese Weaponry and Equipment[14:03] China's Cautious Approach to Sino-Indian Relations[18:10] Military Support and the Sino-Pakistan Relationship[23:44] Implications for Chinese Arms Exports[26:27] Indian and Pakistani Assessments of Chinese Involvement[30:06] Influence of US-China Rivalry on India-Pakistan Relations

Black swan events used to be considered as one-of-a-kind events signifying something rare and exceptional. Today, however, we may be drowning in black swans. That, at least, is the view of global venture investor Christopher Schroeder, in his reflections on recent travel in India, the Gulf, Estonia & the United Kingdom. From the sudden eruption of India-Pakistan tensions that nobody saw coming, to Ukraine's daring military successes against Russia, to this week's collapse of the Dutch government, Schroeder argues we're living in an era of perpetual unpredictability. Schroeder believes that this flood of uncertainty is not only fueling a global anti-incumbent movement and reshaping defense technology, but also forcing nations to rethink their fundamental assumptions about governance, geopolitics, and technological innovation. five key takeaways1. We're Living in an Era of Constant Black Swans Unpredictable, high-impact events have become the norm rather than the exception - from sudden India-Pakistan tensions to Ukraine's surprising military successes to government collapses across Europe.2. Global Anti-Incumbent Sentiment is Driving Political Upheaval People worldwide are rejecting traditional governance that they perceive as incompetent or rigged for insiders, creating fertile ground for populist alternatives and massive political disruption.3. Defense Technology is Stuck in 20th Century Processes While Ukraine adapts drone technology in weeks based on battlefield feedback, Western procurement systems take 3-5 years (versus China's 18 months), creating a dangerous capability gap in modern warfare.4. Countries are Diversifying Dependencies to Avoid Over-Reliance Nations from India to Europe are consciously seeking alternatives to avoid becoming overly dependent on any single power - whether China for manufacturing or Russia for energy.5. Business-as-Usual Governance Cannot Address 21st Century Challenges Traditional institutions and processes are fundamentally inadequate for the speed and complexity of current global challenges, requiring dramatic structural changes that most governments resist making.Christopher M. Schroeder is a Washington D.C. and New York City based entrepreneur and venture investor. He is currently Chair of the Board of Trustees of the German Marshall Fund. He co-founded HealthCentral.com, one of the nation's largest social and content platforms in health and wellness, backed by Sequoia Capital, Polaris Ventures, The Carlyle Group, Allen & Company and IAC Corporation. The company was sold to the health media publisher, Remedy Health, in January 2012 where Schroeder remained a board advisor. Previously he was CEO of washingtonpost.newsweek interactive and LegiSlate.com, the b2b interactive platform on US and state legislation and regulation that he sold in 2000. He currently is an active investor in and advisor to top US venture capital funds and over a dozen consumer-facing social/media startups. He has had a career in finance and served in President George HW Bush's White House and Department of State on the staffs of James A. Baker, III and Robert B. Zoellick.Named as one of the "100 most connected men" by GQ magazine, Andrew Keen is amongst the world's best known broadcasters and commentators. In addition to presenting the daily KEEN ON show, he is the host of the long-running How To Fix Democracy interview series. He is also the author of four prescient books about digital technology: CULT OF THE AMATEUR, DIGITAL VERTIGO, THE INTERNET IS NOT THE ANSWER and HOW TO FIX THE FUTURE. Andrew lives in San Francisco, is married to Cassandra Knight, Google's VP of Litigation & Discovery, and has two grown children.Keen On America is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit keenon.substack.com/subscribe

For years, foreign adversaries have worked to spread misinformation. The German Marshall Fund found that Russia, China and others are becoming more effective at it, targeting state and local governments. North Carolina is one of those targets, and social media is aiding the spread.

The United States and China reached a 90-day truce in the trade war when their representatives met in Geneva in early May. Both sides agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers. President Trump announced that a “total reset” in US-China relations had been achieved. Beyond the hyperbole, the two sides agreed to establish a mechanism on economics and trade and launch negotiations to address trade imbalances and other problems. Whether a deal is reached, what it might look like, and what it might include, remains to be seen. The future trajectory of US-China relations, overall, is still unclear.This episode highlights a Chinese perspective on the US-China bilateral relationship, including on the recent trade talks and the factors that will influence US-China relations going forward. Sun Chenghao, a fellow and head of the U.S.-Europe program at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy (CISS), and council member of the Chinese Association of American Studies joins host Bonnie Glaser for this episode.  Timestamps[00:00] Start[01:39] What does Trump want from China? [04:29] What view does Dr. Sun hold?[05:00] Assessing the US-China Geneva Talks[09:21] Feasibility of a Broad US-China Trade Deal[13:23] Implications of Trump's “Unification” Comment[16:46] Importance of the Strategic Channel[20:47] Declining America, Rising China[23:27] Shift in US Policy Toward Alliances[27:49] The Future of US-China Relations

In this episode of the ChinaPower podcast, Dr. Janka Oertel joins us to discuss the evolving relationship between Europe and China, and how Europe views both economic ties and security challenges posed by Beijing. She argues that China is not engaging in a successful charm offensive. Dr. Oertel describes how both the first and second Trump administration have shaped economic and security dynamics within the China-Europe relationship and outlines how Europe-China relations have become increasingly strained by competitive economic pressures imposed by China, such as issues with overcapacity, as well as how China's support for Russia following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine has undermined the relationship. She also examines Europe's internal responses to pressures coming from China and Europe's active attempts at economic diversification, defense buildup and strategic autonomy, and global outreach to partners and allies. Lastly, she elaborates on areas of potential greater collaboration between the EU and the Indo-Pacific as well as avenues for the U.S. and Europe to continue working together to address dual security and economic challenges posed by China. Dr. Janka Oertel is the director of Asia Programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her expertise focuses on transatlantic China policy, emerging technologies, Chinese foreign and security policies, and security issues in Asia. Previously, she worked as a senior fellow in the Asia programme at the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, a programme director at Körber Foundation's Berlin office, a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP Berlin) and a Carlo-Schmid fellow at United Nations Headquarters, New York. She has testified before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the German Bundestag, and is frequently quoted in leading media outlets such as the Financial Times, the New York Times, The Economist, Süddeutsche Zeitung, El Confidencial, Berlingske, and many more. She holds a PhD from the University of Jena in Germany.

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The AI revolution is underway, and the U.S. and China are racing to the top. At the heart of this competition are semiconductors—especially advanced GPUs that power everything from natural language processing to autonomous weapons. The U.S. is betting that export controls can help check China's technological ambitions. But will this containment strategy work—or could it inadvertently accelerate China's drive for self-sufficiency? Those who think chip controls will work argue that restricting China's access gives the U.S. critical breathing room to advance AI safely, set global norms, and maintain dominance. Those who believe chip controls are inadequate, or could backfire, warn that domestic chipmakers, like Nvidia and Intel, also rely on sales from China. Cutting off access could harm U.S. competitiveness in the long run, especially if other countries don't fully align with U.S. policy.     As the race for AI supremacy intensifies, we debate the question: Can the U.S. Outpace China in AI Through Chip Controls?    Arguing Yes:     Lindsay Gorman, Managing Director and Senior Fellow of the German Marshall Fund's Technology Program; Venture Scientist at Deep Science Ventures      Will Hurd, Former U.S. Representative and CIA Officer     Arguing No:    Paul Triolo, Senior Vice President and Partner at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group     Susan Thornton, Former Diplomat; Visiting Lecturer in Law and Senior Fellow at the Yale Law School Paul Tsai China Center    Emmy award-winning journalist John Donvan moderates  This debate was produced in partnership with Johns Hopkins University.    This debate was recorded on May 14, 2025 at 6 PM at Shriver Hall, 3400 N Charles St Ste 14, in Baltimore, Maryland.  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices