Middle East Brief

Listen to Part 1 here.In this special two part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024. In Part 2, Yevgeniy details his time in captivity in Russia's Mordovia prison, the circumstances of his eventual release in a prisoner exchange in September 2024, and reflects on his ordeal and the conflict as a whole. Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this special two part episode of Chain Reaction, Senior Fellow Rob Lee interviews Yevgeniy Malik, a squad leader in Ukraine's 36th Marine Brigade. Malik fought in Mariupol during the beginning of the war and defended the Illich Iron and Steel Works. He spent more than two years in captivity in Russia as a prisoner of war from April 2022 to September 2024. During this time Malik faced daily beatings and torture. In Part 1, Yevgeniy explains what it was like to be a prisoner of war in Russian prisons, and what the thousands of Ukrainian prisoners of war still face every day.Please be advised that this episode contains content that may be disturbing to some listeners.Part 1 - Chapters* Introductions - 2:26* Setting the scene in Mariupol - 5:04* Negotiating surrender - 14:43* Surrender at the bridge - 18:25* Arriving in Sartana - 20:29 * Time in Olenivka prison -22:19* Transfer into Russia - 26:37* Time in Ryarsk prison - 30:27* Interrogations - 46:25* A Day in Ryarsk - 56:18 Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week technologist Joel Burke, author of the recently published Rebooting a Nation: The Incredible Rise of Estonia, E-Government and the Startup Revolution, joins Indra Ekmanis on the Baltic Ways podcast.He shares his insights on Estonia's rise as a leader in e-government, technological exports in a globalized world, and what the US has to learn from Estonia in a moment of disruption. Baltic Ways is a podcast from the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Since November of last year, the small country of Georgia has seen daily protests against its increasingly authoritarian government. For over 150 straight days Georgians have been in the streets demanding that their country return to the path of European integration, and halt what they describe as its slide toward becoming a Russian client state. But the Georgian government has not budged, cracking down on the protests, sometimes with violence, and refusing to consider the protestors' demand for new elections. How might this all end, and what does Georgia's plight mean for the country itself, for Europe, and for the US? To discuss these questions, former senior Georgian government officials Batu Kutelia, Dato Sikharulidze, and Miro Popkhadze join Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

In this episode of Report in Short Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with András Tóth-Czifra about his recent report, “The Kremlin's Balancing Act: The War's Impact On Regional Power Dynamics.” In the report, Tóth-Czifra explains the shift of government control, highlights instances of pushback, and identifies limitations on the Kremlin's strategy going forward.The Kremlin's centralization drive has manifested in several ways, including tightening control over regional and municipal political institutions, expanding financial control over regional budgets and policy priorities, nationalizing and indirectly mobilizing business assets, and introducing new priorities in personnel policy.These changes have created winners and losers, resulting in friction and resistance from regional elites who perceive their interests and autonomy as threatened. The sustainability of the Kremlin's strategy is uncertain, and risks intensifying tensions and worsening government instability.András Tóth-Czifra is a Fellow in the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI) and contributing author for FPRI's Bear Market Brief. You can also read more of his analysis in No Yardstick. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Persistent reports indicate that the Trump Administration will de-emphasize the US commitment to European security in favor of an emphasis on defending the US homeland and shifting resources to the Indo-Pacific. This follows a long-running critique of America's European allies for investing too little in their own defense, a critique that predates both Trump Administrations, but one that has gotten louder, especially in the second Trump Administration. But what is the view in European capitals of the emerging US policy toward Europe, and what might its effects be on Transatlantic relations? To discuss these questions, Dr. Michael Neiberg of the US Army War College, recently returned from a visit to Estonia and Germany, joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Ukrainians have resisted Russia's aggression for years. Since the full-scale invasion of their country in 2022, Ukrainian women in particular have taken on important roles on the frontlines, in civil society, and at home. Gražina Bielousova's research examines how Ukrainian leftist feminists advocate for their causes at home and abroad, facing distinct challenges as they attempt to defend their country. The Ukrainian case is also distinct from Latvia and Lithuania, whose organizing takes on different shapes for the same cause. Bielousova joins Ben Gardner-Gill to explain these interactions and discuss the ongoing process of decolonization in Baltic Studies.Transcript Ben Gardner-Gill: Hello, and welcome to Baltic Ways. I'm your co-host, Ben Gardner-Gill. Today we're talking with Gražina Belousova. Gražina is a feminist scholar of race, religion, and gender in post-Soviet Europe. She earned her PhD from Duke University in 2022. Currently, she is a postdoctoral scholar at Vilnius University's Institute of International Relations and Political Science and a researcher at Vytautas Magnus University.Her current research project focuses on leftist feminisms in East Europe in light of Russia's war against Ukraine, which will culminate in her first book, What's Left of Feminism in East Europe.Gražina, welcome to Baltic Ways.Gražina Belousova: Thank you so much for having me, Ben.BGG: So let's kick off by just hearing a little bit more about your background. I know you finished your PhD pretty recently. Could you tell us a little bit more about how you got into academia, sort of your research interests, and what you're working on at the moment?GB: Right. Yes, I just defended my PhD in 2022. It's hard to believe that it's been nearly three years now. In my PhD, I focused on historical matters. My PhD was in religion and cultural anthropology. And one of the things that I found missing when I was trying to theorize the part of the world that I call home and that most of the world calls Eastern Europe—I realized that I was lacking a solid theory that would bridge economics, anthropology, and religious studies.I wanted to understand how religious difference, especially perceived religious difference, played a role in creating the space that we call Eastern Europe today. And that took me to 18th and 19th century travel writings by Western travelers, oftentimes who were on an official mission, to the edges or to the depths of the Russian Empire.So I've read a lot of ambassadors' letters. I've read a lot of dispatches from St. Petersburg and Moscow, trying to understand how Westerners thought about that religious difference and how that thinking structured their understanding of what this place was and why it was different. What I tried to argue is actually that perceived religious difference was at the root of thinking of Eastern Europe as something different.Now, when I chose to embark on that topic, I had to put another topic aside, which was the question of very contemporary matters, the question of leftist political thought and feminism. At that point, it felt to me more pertinent to write the kind of theory that I felt was missing. When I was given the opportunity to pursue a postdoctoral position at Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science, I pitched this idea to them.And we very quickly pulled together the application. And the next thing I knew, I was embarking on a project on leftist feminisms in Eastern Europe in light of the war in Ukraine. So, the path was windy, but here I am today, knees and elbows deep, in the project on leftist feminism.BGG: Wonderful. I mean, a windy path is going to be familiar to so many people listening.So, no surprise and no surprise as well that the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine has really impacted your work and your life as it has for many of us. So tell us a little bit more about that.Over the last three years, we've been watching and seeing the horrors in Ukraine. From your perspective, from your academic work, what are some of the main things that you're looking at?GB: One of the things that I'm particularly interested in is the way that groups that are on the edges of society, on the margins of society, such as leftists, such as feminists, and especially leftist feminists—when the two come together and try to articulate their social and political vision and explain to themselves and to their fellow compatriots and oftentimes foreign donors, in my case, also Western leftist feminists, their relevance, how they're trying to articulate their position.War has a penchant for heightening nationalist tendencies. And this is not some kind of particular Eastern European pathology. War anywhere is going to produce these results. That is normal. People defend themselves and articulate themselves on the basis on which they're being attacked, on the basis on which they're being bombed.So this is what we are seeing in Ukraine. Leftism in Eastern Europe, because of the Soviet past, is often associated with Soviet nostalgia. Feminism, on the other hand, is oftentimes seen as something antithetical to national identity, something that is imported from the West, and something that either has no relevance or can be dangerous, especially when questions of national unity, questions of national defense come about.That is one of the reasons why I embarked on this journey, and this is one of the reasons why Ukraine had to be part of this picture. Because while the other countries that I'm looking at—Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, and Moldova—experience the threat of invasion, Ukraine is under attack.And one of the things that I'm finding is that Ukrainian leftist feminists are incredibly resourceful and incredibly gifted at articulating their relevance.One of the things that I'm going to say that stems from that understanding of leftist feminism that's erroneous, but that's pervasive, is that Ukrainian leftist feminists do not debate the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state. What is in question is the way things are happening under the conditions of war.The questions of most vulnerable people—so questions of what happens with people with disabilities, questions of what happens to single mothers, questions of what happens to the elderly people who are maybe unable to evacuate, questions of what happens to the working class people—all of these things are at the forefront of their minds. They're trying to be the advocates of their pleas to the larger society, while at the same time trying to articulate Ukraine's right to self-defense to Western leftist feminists.BGG: So they have both this tension, maybe tension is the wrong word, tell me if it isn't, but they have this tension internally where they're trying to advocate for what they see as justice or what is right with a domestic audience who, understandably, may be more frequently focused on what's happening at the front lines.And then there's also this international question, the foreign audience for these Ukrainian leftist feminists, who have a very different perspective on the Russia-Ukraine conflict. And I specifically use that verbiage instead of Russia's invasion of Ukraine because they're going to think about it very differently.So let's split those out a little bit, and I want to start with the domestic. You talked about the advocacy of these leftist feminists for the most marginalized groups in society, for those who are most vulnerable.In your view, where have they been most successful, perhaps? Where have they seen actual progress happen from their advocacy?GB: One of the things that immediately comes to mind, and many of my interlocutors were directly involved with, is the nurses' movement–the unionization and self-organization of the nurses.There is a movement called Be Like Nina, referring to one of the nurses seen as a pioneer of resisting exploitation. And, of course, under the conditions of war, the labor of nurses is incredibly valuable and needed, but not always appropriately compensated. This is what we can call essential labor, especially when we talk about the front lines, where people are wounded.Many of them are wounded very badly on a daily basis. However, there are other things that are happening in the background as well. While a lot of the resources are pulled to the front, there are people who are experiencing regular daily struggles with their health. And the nurses are being stretched very thin.And this was something that was really amazing to me. This was really one of the very few instances where I saw academics who are leftist feminists actually touching the ground with their ideas: where they got involved with helping the nurses organize, but not taking the center stage, where they acted as support, as a resource, but not overtaking the movement, rather creating the conditions under which nurses themselves could articulate what it was that they needed, what their goals were.And that was incredibly impressive to me because healthcare is severely underfunded across the whole region, and to achieve such tangible goals as wage increases and regulations that empower nurses to do their job was truly impressive. With every conversation with a woman—because I specifically talk only to women—I just felt sheer amazement, because this is so contrary to so many imaginations of what civil society, self-organization, or networks are like in Eastern Europe.This is so contrary to what some have called ‘uncivil' society. What is happening is really self-organization and civil society at its best, organized by women who are oftentimes stretched very thin, not just at work, but also at home, women whose husbands are potentially on the front lines.So to me, I really cannot think of anything else that, in terms of real life impact and in terms of transforming people's lives, has been grander (I'm going to go for that word) than this.BGG: That's remarkable, and thank you for bringing that. I had very little idea of this progress and this happening.So you use the term civil society, which I think is quite apt, and Western conceptions of civil society in the region that we call Eastern Europe can be highly misguided. Let's just put it like that. I think back to a webinar that the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS) hosted on Ukrainian civil society, democratization, responses to the war, and we have this comparative Ukrainian and Baltic perspective, where we looked at how Ukrainian civil society was responding.We looked at how Baltic civil society was responding, and you're doing something similar in your research here. You're looking at Latvia and Lithuania as two of the other case studies, in addition to Poland, Moldova, and, of course, Ukraine. One thing that I think we can all observe just from watching the news, let alone being in the countries as well, is that civil society across the region has had this really robust response in the last few years.So could you speak a little bit more to that in the comparative cases outside of Ukraine that you're looking at in your research, especially Latvia and Lithuania?GB: For sure. I think that in order to theorize civil society and the region in general, we need better theory than has been used often to talk about civil society at large.Here, for example, I'm thinking about Emily Channel Justice and her work and the way that she articulates the notion of self-organization. The way that she thinks about Ukraine, especially in the context of Maidan. The way that it left a self-organization, but that can be applied also to any form of civil society, regardless of ideology, is really a network of decentralized, self-organized people's groups.If you were to look for some kind of central organizing pattern, or some kind of centralized way of doing things, most likely you're not going to find it because it's based on personal network, connections, and localized issues. And I think that's definitely something that I'm seeing in Ukraine.One of the things that I'm seeing in Lithuania and Latvia is that it's going to differ slightly because there are going to be more central organizing figures. If we talk about organizing support for Ukraine, one of the things that we're going to see is that people are going to point to nationwide initiatives.Right now in Lithuania, there is an initiative called Radarum, which is a play on words, on radar and on darom, which is a Lithuanian word for let's do it. And it's a nationwide initiative to collect funds to purchase drones and anti-drone equipment for Ukraine. And there are particular faces that we associate with this initiative.National television is running ads for it. So there's a little bit more of a centralized sense to it. But once again, I would say that this is the mainstream way of organizing civil society, which, of course, with Westernization, has taken on some of the patterns that are similar to the West.If we look towards the left, we're going to see very much that it is self-organized, small groups of people who take different initiatives, such as raising funds for medical care, such as raising funds for queer people in Ukraine. So the more mainstream we go, the more patterns that are akin to those that we see in the West we're going to see.That is also going to be true in Latvia. The further left we go, the more organic, grassroots, self-organized cells of people we're going to find who participate in smaller, less visible initiatives. So that's probably the best way that I can explain the difference.BGG: Got it. We see this distinction of centralization and decentralization.One could consider these different types of movements organic in their own ways, but different in different ways. When one thinks of leftist organizing, which has a long and rich history, organic is sort of one of the key words.It's perpetual, and these society-wide initiatives, like what's currently going on in Lithuania, that we've seen across other countries over the last few years, are maybe a little bit less frequent and less common. So there's an important distinction there.So I want to pivot to the international dimension of how the Ukrainian leftist feminists are talking, especially with Western counterparts. And by Western, we mean Western Europe. We mean American and Canadian. We mean Western, as in not Eastern Europe. So could you talk a little bit about the challenges they're facing there?I think I alluded to it earlier. You alluded to it earlier, but could you dive a little bit more into that discourse, that dialogue between the Ukrainians and their counterparts?GB: This is the main point of contention. What does it mean to be leftist? How much does local experience shape being leftist?What is the relationship of the left to the national question? And I think this is where we are seeing the real tension. Underlying this tension, of course, is the question of Russia. Let me try to unpack this. And I'm going to start from the other end than I listed, which is with the question of Russia.Eastern European in general, and Ukrainian in particular, leftist feminists have a very different understanding as to what Russia is in terms of geopolitics than the Western counterparts are going to have. This stems from very different histories. Western leftism—especially the new wave of leftism that arose in the sixties and the seventies—in many ways has redefined itself not just through the questions of class, which I would argue were lost to some extent. They lost their centrality.And they redefined themselves through the anti-colonial, anti-racist struggle. And that struggle was particularly important because after the fall of the formal colonial system, the colonial patterns of economic exploitation, of social exploitation, of brain drain still very much persisted. And naming that and defining themselves against Western neoimperialism or neocolonialism in the Global South was one of the most defining features of the Left, both in the Global South and in the West. Now, Russia at that time had positioned itself as the ally of the colonized countries. And some of it was pure show, and some of it was actual money, resources, and help that were sent, for example, to Angola. And that made a real difference. Whether that was genuine concern for the colonized people or whether that was an ideological tool is a matter of debate.Whatever it was, it had a profound impact on the way that Western leftists relate to Russia. They continue to see Russia out of that tradition, in many ways, as an ally against Western capitalism and imperialism. Their empire, against which they define themselves, continues to be in the West, and oftentimes is seen as centered on the United States.The empire against which we define ourselves in Eastern Europe is Russia, because Russia was the colonizing power in a very real sense in the region. It was our empire that subjugated us. It was the colonial power that engaged in just about every single practice in which any colonial power engages in the region.For us, if we think outside of ourselves, Russia continues to be the colonial power in the way that it relates to Central Asia, in the way that it relates to the indigenous people of Siberia, in the way that it continues to conduct business. So both the left in the West and the left in the East continue to define themselves against the empire, but disagree on who the empire is.The fundamental difference is the question of Russia. Because of the way that Western leftists, and particularly Western leftist feminists, have been taught to see the world, the way that they have been habituated to see the world, they're unable to see Russia as an aggressor. They're unable to change their narrative about how NATO might act.And of course, the criticisms of continued Western abuses of power, especially when they center on the United States—such as Afghanistan or such as Iraq, but also here in the European context, intra-European context, Serbia is another context in which that comes up—are highly debatable questions, but they're seen a certain way. They're understood in a certain way by Western leftists. And because of Russia's criticism of the West, Western leftists see it as a natural ally, or at least as an equally guilty party.BGG: That's a really great explanation. I think the way that you've laid that out makes a lot of sense.It also harkens back to where I want to bring this, which is the debate that has been going on in Baltic studies and other academic fields, especially those focusing on the region, about thinking about Baltic history in particular as a colonial history and thinking about what it means to decolonize Baltic studies as a field, to decolonize our academic thinking. There have been a lot of discussions.I know that we were in the same room at the AABS panel at Yale last year on that fantastic panel about decolonization. Where do you think this leads with regard to your research specifically? There's already this trend in this field. I get the sense that you are an advocate and moving forward in land seeking for the field as a whole to move in that direction.What do you think the next steps are? What paths do you think could be taken? What do people need to be thinking about that they may not already be thinking about?GB: Well, I think for me, the key question when we are talking about Baltic studies and decolonization is what is it that we talk about when we talk about decolonizing Baltic studies or Baltic countries?Because I think sometimes we're talking about four different things. We are talking about the question of colonialism and coloniality. That's one. We are talking about imperialism, Russian imperialism, and Russian imperiality. We are talking about Russification and what it means to de-Russify. And we are also talking about Sovietization and what it means to de-Sovietize.And I would argue that while these four concepts are very much interrelated, they have very different agendas. So, I think it's a question of definitions. How do we define what our agenda is? Which of the four do we have in mind when we talk about decolonizing Baltic countries, Baltic studies, or anything else?And I would say that each of the four has its place and is significant. But the flip side of that, especially if we stay with the question of decolonization, is the question of Western theory, practice, and scholarship as it relates to Baltic studies. Because if we go back to the early questions in the conversation of what is civil society and whether there is a civil society, Baltic countries and the region as a whole are pathologized.Because the concept of what civil society is, or is not, was based on Western understandings and Western practices. And it rendered civil society in the region invisible. In what ways does the production of scholarship and knowledge about the region continue to be based in very unequal power relationships, in such a way that it continues to pathologize the region?And these are very uncomfortable questions, because much like, you know, in the late eighteenth century when the Lithuanian Polish Commonwealth was divided between the three powers, we're facing the same question: Who is our ally? Because we have learned that Russia is definitely not, but the West is also a problematic ally.This is where I think the question of what it means to center the study of the region in the theory, in the practice, in the questions that actually originate from the ground up, are so important. And I'm not ditching all Western scholarship out the window. That would be throwing the baby out with the bathwater.But I'm saying, what does it mean to balance? What does it mean to center? What does it mean to change the parameters of the conversation?BGG: Those are some weighty questions. I think they're good questions that the field is, I would say not even starting to engage with, but is engaging with, which is really excellent, but it's a long path.As anyone who is a scholar of decolonization will tell you, it doesn't happen overnight. It doesn't happen over a decade. It's sort of a continuous process. So, I think that is where we're going to have to leave it, knowing that there is so much more we could have talked about. But, Gražina, thank you so much.This has been a fascinating conversation. Thank you for joining Baltic Ways.GB: Thank you so much for having me, Ben. It's been a privilege.BGG: Thank you for listening to this episode of Baltic Ways, a co-production of the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies and the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). A note that the views expressed in this and every Baltic Ways episode do not necessarily reflect those of AABS or FPRI.To ensure you catch the next episode of Baltic Ways, make sure you're subscribed to your podcast feed or wherever you get your shows. Thanks so much, and we'll see you next time. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

On November 1 2024, the roof of a newly €55 million renovated railway station in Novi Sad, Serbia's second biggest city, collapsed and killed 16 people. The deaths sparked Serbia's largest wave of student-led anti-government protests since Yugoslavia's disintegration in 2000.Mid-March protests in Serbia saw roughly one in twenty Serbians participate. This week Mladen Mrdalj joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore how the tragedy in Novi Sad sparked a mass movement, and why it spells potential trouble for Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.Explore previous episodes of The Continent series. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The Trump Administration has thrown global financial markets into chaos with its massive but on-again, off-again tariffs against America's trading partners, both large and small. The White House has at times framed the tariffs as a revenue generation scheme, at other times framed them as an attempt to return manufacturing to the US, and at still other times has said they are an attempt to gain concessions from other countries on non-economic issues. What are the goals of the tariffs, how has the administration calculated them, and what are their likely effects on global finance and trade? To answer these questions and others, Dr. Mark Duckenfield, Professor of International Economics at the US Army War College, joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week on Chain Reaction, we feature an installment of the Baltic Ways podcast. Host Indra Ekmanis welcomes back professors Margarita Šešelgytė (Vilnius University), Daunis Auers (University of Latvia), and Andres Kasekamp (University of Toronto) for a roundtable discussion on the first two months of Donald Trump's second term and the US administration's impact on the Baltic countries and broader Europe. This episode was recorded on March 14, 2025.You May Be Interested InBaltic Roundup | March 2025 A look back on the month's major political, cultural, and economic events in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.Explore more from FPRI's Baltic Initiative here. Baltic Ways is a podcast from the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

The two weeks after Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky's Oval Office clash have precipitated drastic shifts in transatlantic relations and the potential trajectory of Russia's war in Ukraine. Now a possible ceasefire is on the horizon. This week on the Bear Market Brief podcast, host Aaron Schwartzbaum and Maximilian Hess make sense of the Oval Office blow-up, discuss President Trump's strategic aims, Russia's goals, Europe's response, the US-Ukraine minerals deal, and what might come next with Russia sanctions. This episode was recorded on March 3, 2025.For more about economic warfare in the 21st century, be sure to check out Max's newsletter, Conflict and Credit. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Although NATO has survived - and even thrived - for over 75 years, its future looks more uncertain now than at perhaps any other time. The Alliance confronts not only a resurgent Russia, but serious questions over the US commitment to European security and the ability of European Allies to fill the gap a US withdrawal from Europe would leave. To discuss these and many other issues surrounding NATO's role in European security, Dr. Rick Landgraf joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction. A retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel with extensive scholarly and policy experience on NATO, Rick is also the host of a recent FPRI podcast series on the Alliance.Explore FPRI's special project: The Ties That Bind | NATO at 75 and Beyond This episode was recorded on February 28, 2025. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

While the military situation in Ukraine continues apace, with grinding Russian assaults gaining ground daily, but at a reduced pace and increasing rate of casualties, the diplomatic situation is changing rapidly. A flurry of US diplomatic activity aimed at ending the war has unnerved Ukrainians and America's allies, who fear the US is preparing to cut a deal with Russia over their heads. This activity includes a bilateral meeting between the US and Russia in Saudi Arabia that excluded America's NATO Allies and Ukraine itself, a series of confusing and contradictory statements from US officials, and an escalating war of words between the US and Ukrainian presidents. To help us make sense of both the military and political situations, Konrad Muzyka, who recently returned from Ukraine, joins Bob Hamilton on this episode of Chain Reaction.For more military analysis of the Russian invasion of Ukraine check out Konrad's Ukraine Conflict Monitor.This episode was recorded on February 20, 2025. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

Sometimes lost among analysis of Russian malign actions around the world - from invasions of its neighbors, to sowing chaos in democratic societies, manipulating democratic elections, and weaponizing corruption - is analysis of why Russia does what it does. In other words, what is it about the Russian model of how the world works that causes it to engage in these types of activities, and what narrative justification does it advance? To discuss these issues, Dr. Olena Snigyr, a Ukrainian scholar with a deep understanding of Russia's motivation and justification for its actions, joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.You Might Be Interested In…*

In this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum speaks with Lieutenant Colonel Denys Yurchenko, about his recent FPRI report “Russian Strategic Culture and the War in Ukraine." In the report, Yurchenko observes Russia's intentions through the lens of strategic culture theory and explains why understanding Russian strategic culture can help establish new policies and strategies to defeat Russia and prevent future conflicts.The author also evaluates Russia's strategic culture and provides recommendations for Ukraine and the West. Get full access to FPRI Insights at fpriinsights.substack.com/subscribe

This week on The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond: In this episode we look back at a defining year in NATO history and we look ahead to the challenges and the opportunities positioned to shape the alliance in the coming years and decades. Featured guests: * Nina Soljan, Head of NATO Affairs and Security Policy, NATO Headquarters* Susan Colbourn, Historian; Associate Director of the Program on American Grand Strategy, Duke University * Sara Moller, Associate Professor, Security Studies Program at Georgetown University; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council. Explore more from the The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond project. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpriinsights.substack.com

In this episode we look back at a defining year in NATO history and we look ahead to the challenges and the opportunities positioned to shape the alliance in the coming years and decades. Featured guests:Nina Soljan, Head of NATO Affairs and Security Policy, NATO HeadquartersSusan Colbourn, Historian; Associate Director of the Program on American Grand Strategy, Duke UniversitySara Moller, Associate Professor, Security Studies Program at Georgetown University; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Center for a New American Security; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council.Explore from The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond

This week on the Bear Market BriefWhere does the US stand in the world as Trump (re)assumes office? How is his approach towards Ukraine shaping up? Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore the broader context and drivers of how policy towards Russia will, and will not, be made.Read Stephen's latest piece for Foreign Affairs here.This episode was recorded on December 20, 2024. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit fpriinsights.substack.com

Where does the US stand in the world as Trump (re)assumes office? How is his approach towards Ukraine shaping up? Stephen Wertheim, Senior Fellow in the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore the broader context and drivers of how policy towards Russia will, and will not, be made.Read Stephen's latest piece for Foreign Affairs here.This episode was recorded on December 20, 2024.Explore more from the Bear Market Brief Podcast here

Rick Landgraf sits down with Representative Brendan Boyle (PA-02) to discuss the Congressman's role in the NATO Parliamentary Assembly's political committee, future challenges facing the alliance, and the relevance of NATO on a local level. Explore from The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond

Ben Gardner-Gill sits down with Lithuanian political scientist Andžej Pukšto to talk about the results of the 2024 European elections, with a focus on two Baltic members of the European Commission: Kaja Kallas of Estonia and Andrius Kubilius of Lithuania. Both former prime ministers, Kallas and Kubilius have unique challenges ahead of them as Russia's war in Ukraine continues. Kallas will lead EU foreign policy, and Kubilius will be the first-ever EU Commissioner for Defense and Space. Pukšto shines a light on what they'll prioritize, what advantages they have entering their new jobs, and how they might overcome the roadblocks ahead.Baltic Ways is brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS), produced in partnership with the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the official position of AABS or FPRI.

Between a Russian offensive and the reelection of Donald Trump, the war in Ukraine hangs in the balance. Janis Kluge joins host Aaron Schwartzbaum to explore how we got here and what might happen next.Explore more from the Bear Market Brief

In this episode we explore the history and evolution of NATO's relationships with its Indo-Pacific partners, the alliance's role in the growing US-China rivalry, and look ahead to a new era of NATO engagement outside of the Atlantic in a time of increasingly interconnected global conflicts.  Featured guests:Gwendoline Vamos, Senior Officer, Asia-Pacific Global Partnerships at NATO HeadquartersIan Langford, senior military officer (retired), Australian Defense ForcesPeter Olive, senior military officer (retired), United Kingdom Royal NavyJohn Hemings, Senior Associate Director, Pacific ForumThis episode is part of a new limited series: The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond 

This week on The Continent: FPRI's Eurasia Program Director Maia Otarashvili joins Aaron to talk through recent parliamentary election results in Georgia and delve into an interesting question: how does a broadly pro-EU, Russia-skeptical country wind up with a euroskeptic, Russia-friendly government? 

This week on Baltic Ways - The US election is approaching quickly with implications for America's allies in the world. Professors Margarita Šešelgyte (Vilnius University), Daunis Auers (University of Latvia), and Andres Kasekamp (University of Toronto) join a roundtable discussion on the impact that a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump presidency could have on the security and future outlook of the Baltic countries and broader European, and how people in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are feeling about the state of democracy in the US. This episode was recorded on September 25, 2024.Explore more from FPRI's Baltic Intiative.Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

Located only 30 km from the border with Russia, the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv was the object of another Russian offensive earlier this year. Although Ukrainian forces stopped Russia's drive to capture the city, Kharkiv still endures daily attacks from Russian glide bombs, drones and missiles. Although Ukraine has the capability to strike back at the aircraft and airfields supporting these attacks, it lacks permission to use Western weapons to do so. Join Bob Hamilton as he interviews Kharkiv resident and FPRI Senior Fellow Maria Avdeeva about how her city is enduring these daily attacks and how Ukraine would strike back if given permission.Read Maria's recent analysis on why Ukraine should be allowed to strike back here.

Kyiv-based journalist Fabrice Deprez returns to the brief for another update on the mood in Ukraine, including a report on his recent trip to the front line city of Pokrovsk.Subscribe to the Bear Market BriefFor more reporting from Ukraine, be sure to check out Fabrice's Eastern Radar newsletter.

It has been 15 months since the Wagner Group's founder Yevgeny Prigozhin led the group's ill-fated march on Moscow and 13 months since Prigozhin was killed in a plane crash almost certainly orchestrated by the Kremlin. Prigozhin is gone but his group lives on. Join host Bob Hamilton as he discusses the group's current operations in Africa and elsewhere with Colin Clarke, Chris Faulkner, and Raphael Parens.

There has been much debate over defense spending, investment, and who is sharing the burden of European defense among NATO allies for years. Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 has served as a grim and stark reminder of European defense investment shortcomings and vulnerabilities.It has been a few months since NATO allies met in Washington to commemorate the alliance's 75th anniversary.  In this episode we are joined by Ambassador Doug Lute, Colonel Jordan Becker, and German defense expert Aylin Matle to examine the contours of the burden-sharing debate within the alliance, what major decisions came out of the Washington summit, and what lies ahead.The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond is a five part series examining the past, present, and future of NATO.For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter. Related Reading: The Time For Europe to Step Up Is Now - War on the Rock

The 15th Newport Global Summit took place on August 14-15, bringing together dozens of leaders from the business and finance worlds, including Steve Forbes, Mark Bezos, and former World Bank President David Malpass. The brainchild of Newport's Katherine (Kitty) Cushing, the Summit strives for "a convergence of legacy, knowledge, and purpose." This year, for the first time, FPRI's Nick Gvosdev, Maia Otarashvili, and Bob Hamilton took part, leading a conversation on the economic, political, and security impacts of the Middle Corridor, a developing transportation network linking the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific basins, the two main engines of the global economy. This edition of Chain Reaction was recorded in Newport immediately after the Summit concluded.

In the wake of far right gains in recent German state-level elections, German historian and journalist Katja Hoyer joins Aaron to explore the unique regional character of German populism. How has formerly communist Eastern Germany swung to the right? 

Aro Velmet is an associate professor of history at the University of Southern California, where he is a historian of modern Europe, colonialism, science, technology, and medicine with an overarching interest in gender studies. For Baltic Ways, he shares insights into the progression of LGBTQ+ rights in Estonia and the broader region and the path that has led to legislative change over the past decade.   Mentioned in this episode:Velmet, A. (2019). Sovereignty after Gender Trouble: Language, Reproduction, and Supranationalism in Estonia, 1980–2017. Journal of the History of Ideas 80(3), 455-478. Põldsam, Rebeka, et al. Kalevi Alt Välja: LGBT+ Inimeste Lugusid 19. Ja 20. Sajandi Eestist. Eesti LGBT Ühing : Rahva Raamat, 2023.Elisarion: Elisàr von Kupffer and Jaanus Samma at the Kumu Art Museum in Tallinn Irina Roldugina, UCIS Postdoctoral Fellow, History, Slavic Languages and LiteratureBaltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies (AABS), produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI). The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI. 

From Ukraine, to the Middle East, to the Indo-Pacific, American officials claim to see an increasing level of policy coordination among China, Russia, and Iran. In this view, the three authoritarian powers work to support each other and challenge the US. In the worst case, their cooperation could take the form of a combined military challenge to the US in multiple theaters. But what level of coordination actually exists among China, Russia, and Iran, and what are the implications for the US? FPRI Senior Fellow Nick Gvosdev joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction to discuss these questions.

In this episode we go back to the beginning. What is NATO? What challenges has NATO faced in the past? How are these similar or different to today's issues? Why is NATO important for US national security? Why should Americans care about the security of Europe? Former NATO Secretary General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer, Ambassador Alexander Vershbow, and Seth Johnston join Rick to explain NATO's history, its purpose, and its evolution over the past seven decades.The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond is a five part series examining the past, present, and futur of NATO.For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter. 

Why has the Global South, historically on the receiving end of colonialism and imperialism, maintained what might be called a neutral stance towards Russia's war against Ukraine? Ivan Grek, Director of the Russia Program at George Washington University's Institute for European, Russian and Eurasian Studies, joins Aaron Schwartzbaum to discuss.For more from the Bear Market Brief newsletter, subscribe here. 

Introducing a new limited series: The Ties That Bind: NATO at 75 and Beyond Maintaining political cohesion on the issue of continuing the flow of Western military aid to Ukraine is a pressing concern for NATO and will be at the top of the agenda when the heads of state and government of the 32 allies meet in Washington, DC from July 9th to 11th. While support for Ukraine will likely remain stable in the short-term, what lies ahead is less certain. What is NATO's role in the war in Ukraine? Why is Russia against Ukraine in NATO? Why does NATO want to expand to Ukraine? Why does Ukraine want to join NATO? To answer these questions, and more, host Rick Landgraf speaks with Dominik Jankowski, John Deni, and Lisa Aronsson. For access to the full interviews and more, subscribe to our newsletter. 

As US assistance to Ukraine resumes after a long delay, Russian forces are making gains in northeastern Ukraine, and may be poised to expand their offensive push this summer. Will the resumption of US aid allow Ukraine to blunt this offensive, what is the likely trajectory of the war, and what does it mean to the US? To discuss these questions, retired Lieutenant General Ben Hodges, former Commander of US Army forces in Europe,  joins Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.

What did commemoration of the dead look like in Medieval Livonia and how did memoria shape group identities in the region? Dr. Gustavs Strenga shares insights into his research and parallels with modern-day memory wars. Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.Explore more from the Baltic Intiative here. 

In the early 1990s, Kyrgyzstan was often referred to as an “island of democracy” in Central Asia.  Three distinguishing features of Kyrgyzstan include an active political opposition, a vibrant civil society, and independent media outlets.The current government is eliminating all three of those distinctions.On this episode of Report in Short, Aaron Schwartzbaum is joined by Bruce Pannier, a longtime journalist at Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, and author FPRI's new report "Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Island of Democracy Sinks Into Authoritarianism" to discuss how the country reversed course to join the club of authoritarian governments in the region. More from FPRI's Central Asia Intiative 

Russia has taken an increasingly authoritarian turn over the last decade, but is its political system fascist? Marlene Laruelle and Julian Waller join to discuss the blurry lines between politics, ideology, and terminology.Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief newsletter 

The death of Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi this past weekend has prompted questions about the future of the Islamic Republic, the role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iranian domestic politics, and succession race for Supreme Leader Khamenei. Afshon Ostovar, a FPRI Senior Fellow, joined FPRI President Aaron Stein to discuss the latest developments in Iran.

Russia launched a new offensive near Kharkiv, amidst continuing questions about Ukraine's ability to mobilize enough manpower to blunt Russian advantages. FPRI President Aaron Stein sat down with Senior Fellow Rob Lee to discuss the latest from the Russo-Ukrainian war.

For weeks tens of thousands of Georgians have taken to the streets of Tbilisi and other cities to protest their government's attempt to pass a so called "foreign agents" law, which they claim is intended to neutralize civil society and destroy independent media. To discuss the implications of these events for Georgia and the West, Ian Kelly, who served as US Ambassador to Georgia from 2015-2018, joins host Bob Hamilton on Chain Reaction.This episode was recorded on May 7, 2024. Related Reading:Government vs. the People in Georgia Subscribe for updates from FPRI's Black Sea Initiative 

This year, NATO marks its 75th anniversary, while the Baltic countries celebrate 20 years as members of the alliance. Dr. Lukas Milevski speaks about the history of that inclusion, and shares his thoughts about the future. Milevski is a tenured assistant professor at Leiden University, where he teaches strategic studies in the BA International Studies and MA International Relations programs. He has published widely on strategy, including two books with Oxford University Press: The Evolution of Modern Grand Strategic Thought (2016) and The West's East: Contemporary Baltic Defense in Strategic Perspective (2018).For more from the world of Baltic studies visit us on Substack. Baltic Ways is a podcast brought to you by the Association for the Advancement of Baltic Studies, produced in partnership with the Baltic Initiative at the Foreign Policy Research Institute. The views and opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of AABS or FPRI.

The Bear Market Brief goes nuclear! Andrey Baklitskiy dropped by to discuss all of Russia's strategic red lines, what the introduction of hypersonic weapons means for global security, and more.Subscribe to the Bear Market Brief