Podcast appearances and mentions of douglas hubbard

Read the full transcript here. Can we measure everything that matters to us? When is measuring the correlates of a thing pretty much just as good as measuring the thing itself? Why are some people resistant to measuring certain things? What are some things people should be measuring but aren't? What's the connection between measuring things and assigning probabilities to events? How much do we know about how well human intuition performs against "doing the math"? How inconsistent are we at applying our own principles in decision-making? What kinds of calibration training are effective? What is "value of information"? What is the Rule of 5? What are the top three things we can do to improve our decision-making?Douglas Hubbard is an author, consultant, and recognized expert in decision theory and risk analysis. He has written several books on measurement and measuring risk. His work spans various industries including insurance, finance, pharmaceuticals, aerospace, military, energy, government, tech, and nonprofit organizations. Connect with Doug on LinkedIn, email him at dwhubbard@hubbardresearch.com, or learn more about his work at hubbardresearch.com.Further reading:How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, by Douglas HubbardApplied Information Economics Academy (Doug's online calibration training)Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences, by John Allen PaulosClearer Thinking's "Calibrate Your Judgement" toolFatebook StaffSpencer Greenberg — Host / DirectorJosh Castle — ProducerRyan Kessler — Audio EngineerUri Bram — FactotumWeAmplify — TranscriptionistsAlexandria D. — Research and Special Projects AssistantMusicBroke for FreeJosh WoodwardLee RosevereQuiet Music for Tiny Robotswowamusiczapsplat.comAffiliatesClearer ThinkingGuidedTrackMind EasePositlyUpLift[Read more]

Jonathan Stark is a former software developer who is on a mission to rid the world of hourly billing. He is the author of Hourly Billing Is Nuts, the host of Ditching Hourly, and writes a daily newsletter on pricing for independent professionals. In this episode, Jonathan highlights the drawbacks of billing hourly which can reduce your value to just a commodity. Instead, he suggests pricing your services based on the outcome you deliver, thereby providing maximum value to your clients.   What you will learn from this episode: Discover the top reasons behind the shift away from hourly billing Find out the advantages of choosing outcome-based pricing over hourly billing Uncover why positioning your service effectively can have a significant impact on your pricing strategy   "Positioning is critically important for any kind of upward lift on your fees." - Jonathan Stark   Topics Covered: 01:04 - What got him into pricing 03:35 - The problem with having an hourly rate 06:11 - Pricing uncertainty in the case of a car diagnostic 08:45 - What makes it better charging fixed price upfront 10:33 - Why positioning your service is crucial in pricing 12:59 - What hourly rate appears to be on the label 16:15 - Touching on the 'Experience Economy' [pricing transformation] 19:06 - Formula for value or the maximum price 21:36 - The best reason to not use hourly prices 24:22 - Solving the scope problem with knowing the desired goal 29:21 - Jonathan's pricing advice 30:38 - How to connect with Jonathan   Key Takeaways: "If you sell somebody an hour, you cannot make it more efficient. It takes an hour to deliver it. It artificially limits your income." - Jonathan Stark “The way I do it [on the scope problem], I don't scope first, I scope last.” - Jonathan Stark   People / Resources Mentioned: Alan Weiss: https://alanweiss.com/about-alan-weiss/ Joseph Pines: https://strategichorizons.com/pine-and-gilmore/joe-pine/ How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business by Douglas Hubbard: https://www.amazon.com/How-Measure-Anything-Intangibles-Business/dp/1118539273   Connect with Jonathan Stark: Website: https://jonathanstark.com/   Connect with Mark Stiving: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/stiving/ Email: mark@impactpricing.com  

When it comes to measuring risk, the average person assumes they either need a ton of data or they have not enough data. The truth is you often need less data than you think to improve upon your current judgement, and it's probably been measured before. Unfortunately, recognizing that data and applying the math to it doesn't come naturally to the average person and we will probably need some help from technology to access that data. Host Jack Russo asks quantitative analyst Douglas Hubbard if the future of AI includes analyzing data and producing recommendations for things like business strategies, investment strategies & more.   How to Measure Anything How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk

 Can literally everything be measured? According to quantitative analyst Douglas Hubbard, yes it can – at least when it comes to risk management and decision-making sciences. Hubbard believes that anything that has any impact on your life has observable consequences and is sometimes judged based on flawed empirical data. Today host Jack Russo and Douglas Hubbard discuss measuring risk in areas where even the professionals once believed you could not.   How to Measure Anything How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk

We're back today with Jonathan Stark. In case you missed it we did a recording with Jonathan a couple of weeks ago. It’s episode 106 - Better Pricing Strategies for Accountants. There was so much more to talk about that I invited him to come back on to continue the conversation about pricing.  One of the problems that CPAs run into in their practices is that they tend to fall back on two methodologies for pricing: billing by the hour, and flat rate, which tends to be a cost-plus version of billing by the hour.  These two methodologies limit them in terms of how they price in their firm. Coupled with the problem that hourly billing is problematic in that the client doesn't have a price until after the work is done. And if the bill exceeds the value to the client, that's a big problem. So what we want to talk about today are different pricing methodologies for CPAs.  Before we started recording, I laid out a couple of options, namely retainer, value-based, contingency and subscription. Jonathan walks us through what those different pricing methodologies look like, what's good to use and what kind of circumstances and why you don't want to use them in certain circumstances and what the risks are. Download the PDF below for the notes on the different pricing strategies. Download the PDF: Different Pricing Methodologies for CPAs https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/111-pdf-download/   Connect with Jonathan: Website: https://jonathanstark.com/ Episodes mentioned: 081 Time to Rethink Your Pricing Strategy? with Ron Baker, Founder of VeraSage Institute https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/081 104 How Much Would a CPA Pay for a Kid’s Bike? https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/104 106 Better Pricing Strategies for Accountants: Stop Billing by the Hour https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/106 Geraldine Carter on the Ditching Hourly Podcast - The Forensic Bounty Hunter https://podcast.ditchinghourly.com/episodes/coaching-call-with-geraldine-carter Book recommendations: How To Measure Anything: Finding The Value of Intangibles in Business, by Douglas Hubbard https://hubbardresearch.com/publications/how-to-measure-anything-book/ Implementing Value Pricing: A Radical Business Model for Professional Firms, by Ron Baker https://www.amazon.com/Implementing-Value-Pricing-Business-Professional/dp/0470584610 Hourly Billing Is Nuts by Jonathan Stark https://jonathanstark.com/hbin Upcoming training:  15 PHRASES TO SCRUB FROM YOUR WEBSITE AND WHAT TO SAY INSTEAD Thursday, November 19th, 12pm ET     Download the ebook “6 Simple Steps to Double Your Revenue” https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/download-double-your-revenue   Schedule time with Geraldine: https://calendly.com/geraldinecarter/15min   Work with Geraldine: https://shethinksbigcoaching.com/work-with-me/  

On this episode of The Artists of Data Science, we get a chance to hear from Douglas Hubbard, a management consultant, speaker, and author in decision sciences. He's the inventor of the Applied Information Economics method and he's an internationally recognized expert in the field of measuring intangibles. He is also the author of many books, with his most recent one being “How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity Risk”. Doug shares with us his journey into quantitative methodology, how to measure and quantify intangible things, and some of the misconceptions of statistics that are still being propagated. Doug's expertise and knowledge in statistics is vast, and our listeners can gain a whole new perspective in measuring intangibles! WHAT YOU'LL LEARN [14:47] How data scientists can benefit from the methodologies of applied information economics [25:28] The Fermi decomposition [30:54] Three reasons why people think something can't be measured [41:59] The concept of statistical significance [47:56] The difference between a Bayesian and frequentist QUOTES [21:18] “...measure with micrometer, cut with an axe.” [27:10] “...it's really easy to get lost in all the stuff you don't know” [43:11] “It's not just literacy you have to improve. It's not just that we have to learn new things about statistics. We have to unlearn misconceptions.” [43:52] “If you know almost nothing, almost anything will tell you something.' SHOW NOTES [00:01:36] Introduction for our guest today [00:02:59] Talk to us how you first got interested in measuring the intangibles? [00:05:14] What were some notable projects that you worked on during the early part of your career that helped you shape your philosophy of being able to measure anything? [00:09:20] What is applied information economics? [00:12:14] The importance of taking ideas from different domains and combining them in new days. [00:14:32] How do you see Data scientists benefiting from using the methodologies of applied information economics? [00:17:04] Where do you see the field of quantitative methodology headed in the next two to five years? [00:22:30] The difference between a decision models and predictive models [00:25:04] How to measure anything with Fermi decompositions [00:30:37] The three reasons people think something can't be measured [00:38:16] Common misconceptions about statistics [00:41:52] Why is it so challenging for people to understand that concept of statistical significance and what it actually represents? [00:46:42] A purely philosophical interlude on Bayesian statistics [00:56:12] What's the one thing you want people to learn from your story and from your work? [00:58:19] Jump into a quick lightning round. If you could meet any historical figure, who would it be? [00:58:38] What's the one thing you would say we truly cannot measure? [01:01:19] If you could have a billboard placed anywhere, what would you put on it? [01:01:25] What's the number one book, either fiction or nonfiction or even one of each that you would recommend our audience read, and what was your most impactful takeaway from it? [01:03:33] What is the best advice you have ever received? [01:04:42] Where can people find your books? [01:05:46] How can people connect with you? Where else can they find you online? Special Guest: Douglas W. Hubbard.

Forecasting resources Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (amazon goodreads) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (book) by Nate Silver (amazon goodreads) How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (book) by Douglas Hubbard (amazon goodreads) Planning Fallacy (article) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Discusses Inside/Outside view as well. Self calibration Prediction Book AirTable calibration template by Ben Pence Notion.so calibration template by Ben Pence Credence Calibration Game by Alexei Andreev, Zachary Alethia, and Andrew Critch Decision Journal (more qualitative) Prediction Markets Augur PredictIt InTrade (inactive) Prediction Markets (article) by Gwern Music Intro music: Vlog Music Cafe Type Hip-Hop Instrumental Chill Lo-Fi Beat by Oliwia Orłowska Outro music: Game Over [Super Mario World Lofi/hiphop remix] by Neighborhood Vandal Transcript available at https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting

A ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods. This book is the first of a series of spinoffs from Douglas Hubbard’s successful first book, How To Measure Anything: Finding the Value of “Intangibles” in Business.   Learn more on how to quantify risk in terms of dollars and cents in order to build better "business impact" decision makers, visit: https://hubbardresearch.com/ Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/bsw for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://wiki.securityweekly.com/bsw183

A ground shaking exposé on the failure of popular cyber risk management methods. This book is the first of a series of spinoffs from Douglas Hubbard’s successful first book, How To Measure Anything: Finding the Value of “Intangibles” in Business.   Learn more on how to quantify risk in terms of dollars and cents in order to build better "business impact" decision makers, visit: https://hubbardresearch.com/ Visit https://www.securityweekly.com/bsw for all the latest episodes! Show Notes: https://wiki.securityweekly.com/bsw183

Douglas Hubbard (@hdr_frm) wrote a book entitled ‘How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business’. He is also the founder of Hubbard Decision Research (HDR) a consultancy that applies quantitative analysis methods to the most difficult measurements and challenging decisions in business. He explains some techniques for measuring things that are hard to measure and then walks me through an example of how one would measure what is often thought about as intangible quality. We had a fun time talking.

More talk about data, CIRA (collect-inform-recommend-act), and Brent gives Alan free advice on maturing a data aware organization. We mention the great Douglas Hubbard book – How To Measure Anything This AB Testing brought to you by Kobiton Test your mobile app on real cloud based devices today! Kobiton is the complete mobile device cloud […] --- Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/abtesting/support

More talk about data, CIRA (collect-inform-recommend-act), and Brent gives Alan free advice on maturing a data aware organization. We mention the great Douglas Hubbard book – How To Measure Anything This AB Testing brought to you by Kobiton Test your mobile app on real cloud based devices today! Kobiton is the complete mobile device cloud […]

Today we'll talk with a statistician who's helped several governments, hundreds of organizations, and tens of thousands people measure the value of change. Get ready for a very interesting conversation Douglas Hubbard, author of serval books including "How To Measure Anything".

Overview: In this episode Terrance O’Hanlon and I talk about reliability, safety and operational excellence. We dive deep into leadership and talk about how if leaders really want to be excellent at their jobs they need to get better at asking questions and listening. Terrance gives some excellent advice for leaders and for helping their workers to understand the value in their work. Terrance’s Bio: Terrence O'Hanlon, CMRP is the Publisher of Reliabilityweb.com®, RELIABILITY® Magazine and Uptime® Magazine. He is certified in Asset Management by the Institute of Asset Management and is a Certified Maintenance & Reliability Professional by SMRP. Terrence is the acting Executive Director of the Association of Asset Management Professionals (AMP). He is the executive editor and Publisher of the 5th Edition of the Asset Management Handbook. Terrence is also a voting member of the US TAG (PC251) for ISO 55000 - ASTM E53 Asset Management Standards Committee. More recently Mr. O’Hanlon has been selected as the sole US Representation through ANSI for ISO Working Group 39 to create a standard for competence in assessing and certifying Asset Management programs known as ISO 17021-5. Mr. O’Hanlon is also a member of the Institute of Asset Management, American Society of Mechanical Engineers, The Association of Facilities Engineers, Society of Maintenance and Reliability Professionals and the Society of Tribologists and Lubrication Engineers. Show Notes: There are a number of proven tools for improving reliability, yet they fail about 70% of the time. Effective leadership behind these tools is one of the key drivers behind what makes these tools successful. Reliability is directly tied to safety. Reliability goes beyond the business case. It can be a factor in promoting social good, and it and can be seen as a way of life. It can be very empowering when leaders ask workers about their jobs and about what they do and know. Not only can leaders learn more, but when workers have the opportunity to explain their work it can improve morale. Asking questions, working through inquiry and listening to answers can create a more powerful force in creating greater reliability. Leaders need to work through master to discovery. Leaders need to build trust with their subordinates and have to in turn trust them. Organizations should work to preempt failures and work to prevent failures from “piercing the shell” of organizations. Organizations should work to avoid letting defects into the system. They should work to find and remove the sources of the potential defects before they enter the system, which creates greater reliability, as opposed to allowing defects into the system and then finding and fixing them later. Detection is a necessary skill, but the leverage is not letting the defects into the system. You can help do that through empowering and engaging the team and empowering team members to fix the defects before they enter the system without having to go through a bureaucratic process. Sign up for our Newsletter: www.v-speedsafety.com/email-subscription Resources: Books: How to Measure Anything by Douglas Hubbard, The Toyota Way by Jeffery Liker, Don't Just Fix It, Improve It! by Winston Ledet and Sherri Abshire 99 Percent Invisible Podcast About Air France Flight 447: http://99percentinvisible.org/episode/children-of-the-magenta-automation-paradox-pt-1/ Contact: Web: www.reliabilityweb.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reliabilityweb Keywords: Disruptive leadership podcast, safety podcast, leadership podcast, safety innovation podcast, reliability, reliability leadership, high-reliability organizations podcast, HRO podcast, tower safety, wireless safety