Podcast appearances and mentions of Nate Silver

This week on The Data Stack Show, John and Matt dive into the latest trends in AI, discussing the evolution of GPT models, the role of tools in reducing hallucinations, and the ongoing debate between data warehouses and agent-based approaches. They also explore the complexities of risk-taking in data teams, drawing lessons from Nate Silver's book on risk and sharing real-world analogies from cybersecurity, football, and political campaigns. Key takeaways include the importance of balancing innovation with practical risk management, the need for clear recommendations from data professionals, the value of reading fiction to understand human behavior in data, and so much more. Highlights from this week's conversation include:Initial Impressions of GPT-5 (1:41)AI Hallucinations and the Open-Source GPT Model (4:06)Tools and Determinism in AI Agents (6:00)Risks of Tool Reliance in AI (8:05)The Next Big Data Fight: Warehouses vs. Agents (10:21)Real-Time Data Processing Limitations (12:56)Risk in Data and AI: Book Recommendation (17:08)Measurable vs. Perceived Risk in Business (20:10)Security Trade-Offs and Organizational Impact (22:31)The Quest for Certainty and Wicked Learning Environments (27:37)Poker, Process, and Data Team Longevity (29:11)Support Roles and Limits of Data Teams (32:56)Final Thoughts and Takeaways (34:20) The Data Stack Show is a weekly podcast powered by RudderStack, customer data infrastructure that enables you to deliver real-time customer event data everywhere it's needed to power smarter decisions and better customer experiences. Each week, we'll talk to data engineers, analysts, and data scientists about their experience around building and maintaining data infrastructure, delivering data and data products, and driving better outcomes across their businesses with data.RudderStack helps businesses make the most out of their customer data while ensuring data privacy and security. To learn more about RudderStack visit rudderstack.com.

This week we tucked in our shirt, straightened our tie and resisted the temptation to nip off for a quick vape behind the pickle-ball court, all in order to suitably impress our guest, one of the world's greatest marketing academics, Professor Byron Sharp.  A man who would need no introduction (if we weren't contractually obliged to provide all our pod guests with one) Prof Byron is one of the world's most respected thinkers in the field of brands and consumer behaviour. Unless you're deliberately trying to get yourself fired from your marketing role, you'll no doubt have read his seminal book ‘How Brands Grow' and, if you're especially lucky, you may well have learned directly from the man himself in one of his globally prestigious academic roles.  A speaker, a teacher, a thinker and a pioneering researcher, Byron still has the time to be a thoroughly entertaining podcast guest, and is famously happy to share the kind of knee-buckling market truth that the industry fears but also really, really needs. In an episode where Byron jabs a scholarly finger into the flabby thinking that holds brands back, we ponder the many different disciplines a proper marketer should be able to wrap their heads around if they want a consumer to care. This episode is proudly dedicated to John Scriven.  Follow Byron on LinkedIn ///// Timestamps 03:27 - Early Jobs and Academia 04:38 - The Importance of Real-World Experience 06:09 - Working with Andrew Ehrenberg 08:28 - The Intent Behind "How Brands Grow" 09:41 - Marketing Blind Spots and Unexplored Areas 10:30 - Cognitive Biases and Behavioral Science 11:48 - The Role of Heuristics in Consumer Behavior 12:43 - Understanding Double Jeopardy Law 14:08 - Consumer Efficiency vs. Laziness 15:26 - Predictive Power of Marketing Science 16:06 - The Weirdness of the Real World 17:37 - Misconceptions About Marketing Science 19:40 - The Role of Synthetic Research 32:58 - B2B Marketing and Growth Strategies 35:22 - The Value of Awards in Marketing Byron's Book recommendations are: The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver     /////

In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates,  why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI for the next decade, why more athletes haven't come out as gay, redesigning the NBA, what mentors he needs now, the cultural and psychological peculiarities of Bay area intellectual communities, why Canada can't win a Stanley Cup, the politics of immigration in Europe and America, what he'll work on next, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded July 23rd, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by donating today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.

On this episode of Say Something Interesting Brent and Megan discuss last weekend's talk at EastLake. Other topics include the Tetris movie, On the Edge (by Nate Silver), and form letters from Paul.

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors  21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com  Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21: Maryland case Follow Star Spangled Gamblers Twitter: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31. https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6 Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators. Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Food and drink available for purchase. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

On the Monday July 21, 2025 edition of The Armstrong & Getty One More Thing Podcast... Joe has a Nate Silver article stuck in his craw... A NYT columnist details his use of a pet psychic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump's approval ratings are slipping in a narrow but consistent pattern, driven by voter dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, trade and inflation. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin highlights a 4.5-point decline in net approval since the start of Trump's second term, with steep drops on key economic indicators. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before she decided to become a poker pro, Maria Konnikova didn't know how many cards are in a deck. But she did have a Ph.D. in psychology, a brilliant coach, and a burning desire to know whether life is driven more by skill or chance. She found some answers in poker — and she's willing to tell us everything she learned. SOURCES:Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff. RESOURCES:“Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test,” by Patrick Ring, Levent Neyse, Tamas David-Barett, and Ulrich Schmidt (Frontiers in Psychology, 2016).“The headwinds/tailwinds Asymmetry: An Availability Bias in Assessments of Barriers and Blessings,” by Shai Davidai and Thomas Gilovich (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).“The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments,” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer (Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2015)."The Limits of Self-Control: Self-Control, Illusory Control, and Risky Financial Decision Making,” by Maria Konnikova (Columbia University, 2013).“Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement” by J.B. Rotter (Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 1966). EXTRAS:The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win, by Maria Konnikova.Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, by Maria Konnikova.The Confidence Game, by Maria Konnikova.Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern."This Year's World Series Of Poker Is Different," by Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (2025).

Mike Lindell's sparklemagic lawyers find out that sometimes ChatGPT ends with Rule 11. Then we visit Elon Musk and Sam Altman for a lesson in civil procedure. After that Andrew and Liz explain how Trump can't actually un-ban TikTok via presidential edict and break down the latest Supreme Court efforts to burn down the judiciary. Plus for subscribers, Nate Silver — who only gambles for fun, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise! — is right about the Republicans' trillion dollar tax heist???   Links:   Coomer v. Lindell [Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/63296393/coomer-v-lindell/   Musk v. Altman [Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69013420/musk-v-altman/   D.V.D. v. Department of Homeland Security [Trial Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69775896/dvd-v-us-department-of-homeland-security/   Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. [SCOTUS Docket] https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24a1153.html   EO 14166 (TikTok ban) https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/application-of-protecting-americans-from-foreign-adversary-controlled-applications-act-to-tiktok/   FOIA production re TikTok https://embed.documentcloud.org/documents/25989866-25-3980-nd-cal-response-07032025/   Show Links: https://www.lawandchaospod.com/ BlueSky: @LawAndChaosPod Threads: @LawAndChaosPod Twitter: @LawAndChaosPod  

Sat, 05 Jul 2025 04:00:00 +0000 https://feed.neuezwanziger.de/link/21941/17075154/a9d6ef39-1f90-4234-8676-2ed2d782ad20 173d9691e6cc2ce1c5a3e9284072aa7d Wolfgang und Stefan treffen sich vorm Salon Live-Termine 2025 Fr. 19.09. / Fr. 19.12. Tickets per Mail: neuezwanziger@diekaes.de SOMMERSALON am 23. August! Tickets gibts hier Alles hören Komm' in den Salon. Es gibt ihn via Webplayer & RSS-Feed (zum Hören im Podcatcher deiner Wahl, auch bei Apple Podcasts und Spotify). Wenn du Salon-Stürmer bist, lade weitere Hörer von der Gästeliste ein. Literatur Springer-Journalist Robin Alexander erzählt in „Letzte Chance. Der neue Kanzler und der Kampf um die Demokratie“ das Scheitern der Ampel nach und versucht sich an Erklärungen für den ganz auf Migration ausgerichteten Wahlkampf. Das Sittenbild der Politik ist unfreiwillig auch eines des Journalismus. penguin.de Der große Regisseur Dominik Graf legt mit „Sein oder Spielen. Über Filmschauspielerei“ ein anekdotenreiches Erinnerungsbuch über seine Arbeit mit Schauspielern vor, das zugleich ein Kompendium über Schauspielerei und ein persönlich gehaltenes Lexikon großer Momente der Filmgeschichte ist. chbeck.de Sam Altman verkauft uns seine KI als „Gentle Singularity“. Wenn die Versprechen so gut aufgehen wie alle vorherigen des Silicon Valley, wird es schlimm. blog.samaltman.com Wie ist es, wenn man plötzlich durch Krypto-Investments einen Klassensprung vollzieht? In seinem Buch „Tausendmal so viel Geld wie jetzt“ trifft sich der Schriftsteller Juan S. Guse mit ungewöhnlichen Krypto-Millionären: Sie protzen nicht in Dubai oder auf Yachten, sie sind Sleeper. fischerverlage.de In der NYT diskutieren die Demoskopen Nate Silver und Kristen Soltis Anderson über Trumps Umfragewerte. Wir ziehen auch Lehren für die Bundesregierung daraus. nytimes.com Die Schriftstellerin Barbi Marković nennt ihre Poetikvorlesungen „Stehlen, Schimpfen, Spielen“ und erklärt ihr Schreiben so geistreich wie amüsant. rowohlt.de MIT-Forschung zu KI als Assistenz im Schreibprozess zeigt das Phänomen kognitiver Verschuldung. Was sich einfach anfühlt, wird doch recht schnell belastend. media.mit.edu Tausende indische Studenten liefern auf Fahrrädern Essen aus: Ein Abkommen zwischen Deutschland und Indien hat vielen ein Studium in Berlin und in anderen Städten ermöglicht. Nina Scholz erzählt in der „taz“ unglaubliche, aber wahre Geschichten der Ausbeutung. taz.de Apple hat sich kritisch mit LLMs befasst. Es gebe „fundamentale Grenzen“ für die neuen KIs, die offensichtlich die Produktentwicklung erschweren. machinelearning.apple.com Wozu noch Journalismus, wenn doch alles offensichtlich ist? Tyler Pager mit einem sehr wichtigen Pointen-Kommentar zu Donald Trump. nytimes.com Das preisgekrönte Simply Quartet interpretiert furios Streichquartette von Mendelssohn und Dvořák. genuin.de Shownotes 00:00:00 Vor dem Salon Wolfgang und Stefan beginnen den Podcast mit einer Diskussion über die sommerliche Hitzewelle und die unterschiedlichen Strategien, damit umzugehen – von der heimischen Klimaanlage bis hin zur KI-gestützten Planung des perfekten Schattenplatzes im Freibad. Diese Alltagsbeobachtung leitet über zur zentralen Frage, wo Technologie wirklich hilft und wo sie unnötig verkompliziert. Das Hauptthema der Folge wird vorgestellt: eine kritische Auseinandersetzung mit dem Buch „Letzte Chance“ des Journalisten Robin Alexander. Die Gastgeber kritisieren bereits im Vorfeld den von Alexander repräsentierten Politikjournalismus, der auf Emotionalisierung und personalisierte Storys setzt, anstatt strukturelle Probleme zu analysieren. Anhand eines Vergleichs von Alexanders Auftritten bei „hart aber fair“ und „Table Media“ wird dessen argumentativer Opportunismus aufgezeigt. Ein Exkurs zum Magier Penn Jillette dient als philosophische Grundlage, um über Wahrheit, Erinnerung und die Notwendigkeit von Vertrauen zu reflektieren. Diese Kritik wird auf die mediale Berichterstattung zu Ereignissen wie den Attentaten in Magdeburg und Aschaffenburg ausgeweitet, bei denen die emotionale Reaktion von Politikern wie Friedrich Merz im Mittelpunkt steht, während die Rolle der Medien, insbesondere des Springer-Verlags, unreflektiert bleibt. 00:57:15 Robin Alexander: Letzte Chance Im Hauptteil der Folge sezieren Wolfgang und Stefan das Buch „Letzte Chance“. Sie kritisieren die narrative Strategie, Politik als eine Abfolge von persönlichen Krisen und emotionalen Reaktionen darzustellen. Als zentrales Beispiel dient die Szene, in der Friedrich Merz durch das Video von Selenskyjs Demütigung im Oval Office angeblich zur Reform der Schuldenbremse bewegt wird – eine Darstellung, die die Gastgeber als vorgeschobene Rechtfertigung für einen längst geplanten Politikwechsel entlarven. Das Buch, so die Kritik, biete keine tiefgehende Analyse, sondern eine oberflächliche Chronik der Ampel-Koalition, um Friedrich Merz als alternativlose Führungsfigur zu inszenieren. Dabei werden wichtige politische und soziale Themen wie die Kindergrundsicherung oder die tatsächliche Substanz des CDU-Wirtschaftsprogramms komplett ausgeblendet. Auch die Darstellung der Greichen-Affäre und des Heizungsgesetzes wird als beispielhaft für einen Journalismus kritisiert, der die Rolle der eigenen Medien bei der Skandalisierung ignoriert. Ein besonderer Fokus liegt auf der undurchsichtigen Rolle der FDP beim Bruch der Koalition und der bemerkenswerten Zusammenarbeit der Union mit der Linkspartei, um Merz' Kanzlerwahl zu sichern. Die Analyse gipfelt in der Feststellung, dass das Buch ein Paradebeispiel für einen Journalismus ist, der in seiner eigenen Blase gefangen ist und durch seine Fixierung auf Insider-Geschichten die eigentlichen Machtverhältnisse und gesellschaftlichen Probleme verschleiert. 02:58:40 Dominik Graf: Sein und Spielen Wolfgang stellt das Buch „Sein oder Spielen“ des Regisseurs Dominik Graf vor. Es ist keine systematische Abhandlung, sondern ein sehr persönliches Kompendium und eine Sammlung von Anekdoten und Beobachtungen zur Kunst der Filmschauspielerei. Graf teilt seine Erfahrungen aus der Zusammenarbeit mit Schauspielern wie Götz George und analysiert die Techniken von Ikonen wie James Dean oder Alain Delon. Dabei werden gegensätzliche Ansätze wie Method Acting und reines Handwerk gegenübergestellt. Ein zentraler Gedanke ist die Bedeutung von Verletzlichkeit und emotionaler Instabilität als kreative Ressource, die durch moderne Tendenzen zur Selbstoptimierung und „Resilienz“ verloren zu gehen droht. Das Buch wird als eine Fundgrube für Film- und Schauspiel-Enthusiasten beschrieben, die Lust darauf macht, die besprochenen Filme und Szenen neu zu entdecken. 03:11:46 Sam Altman: The Gentle Singularity Stefan analysiert einen Text von OpenAI-CEO Sam Altman, in dem dieser seine Vision einer „sanften Singularität“ skizziert. Stefan äußert von Beginn an fundamentale Skepsis gegenüber Altmans optimistischem Zukunftsbild. Altman prophezeit, dass künstliche Superintelligenz bald zur Routine gehören und enorme Fortschritte in Wissenschaft und Wirtschaft ermöglichen wird, angetrieben von einem Überfluss an Intelligenz und Energie. Stefan kritisiert diese Vorhersage als naiv und gefährlich, da sie die realen Probleme der Machtkonzentration, der wirtschaftlichen Ungleichheit und der gesellschaftlichen Verwerfungen, die durch KI entstehen könnten, völlig ausblendet. Der Text dient als Dokumentation einer bedenklichen Ideologie aus dem Silicon Valley. 03:31:39 Juan S. Guse: Tausendmal so viel Geld wie jetzt Wolfgang bespricht das Buch von Juan S. Guse, eine literarische Reportage über die verborgene Welt der Kryptomillionäre. Guse porträtiert nicht die lauten Neureichen, sondern die sogenannten „Sleeper“ – Menschen, die im Stillen durch Krypto-Investitionen reich geworden sind und oft mit der daraus resultierenden Perspektivlosigkeit und Verunsicherung kämpfen. Das Buch ergründet die Motivationen junger Menschen, die in alternativen Vermögensbildungen eine letzte Chance sehen, den ökonomischen Abstieg zu verhindern. Besonders eindrücklich schildert Guse die Atmosphäre einer Kryptokonferenz in Barcelona, die er als quasi-religiöses Ereignis für eine Gemeinschaft von Eingeweihten beschreibt, die an einen bevorstehenden technologischen und gesellschaftlichen Umbruch glauben. 03:48:51 Nate Silver und andere zu Trumps Umfragewerten Stefan fasst eine Diskussion aus der New York Times mit den Analysten Nate Silver und Kristen Soltis Anderson über die politische Lage von Donald Trump zusammen. Obwohl Trumps Zustimmungswerte relativ stabil sind, zeigen sich deutliche Schwächen bei zentralen Wirtschaftsthemen wie der Inflation. Das Thema Einwanderung hingegen ist eine Stärke, da er hier von vielen als entscheidungs- und handlungsstark wahrgenommen wird. Die Experten diskutieren mögliche Strategien für die Demokraten, die sich von ihrem Image des „Insider-Spiels“ lösen und mit jüngeren, radikaleren Kandidaten und Themen punkten müssten, um eine Chance zu haben. 03:56:59 Barbi Marković: Stehlen, Schimpfen, Spielen Wolfgang stellt begeistert die Poetikvorlesungen der Schriftstellerin Barbi Marković vor. Das Buch ist humorvoll als Countdown zur Abgabe der Vorlesung gestaltet und reflektiert auf brillante Weise den Schreibprozess selbst. Marković demonstriert ihren spielerischen Umgang mit Sprache und Literatur, etwa durch einen Remix eines Thomas-Bernhard-Textes oder die Verwendung von Disney-Figuren als universelle Identifikationsfiguren für ihre Alltagsbeobachtungen in Wien. Im Kern des Buches steht die komplexe Beziehung zwischen Realität, Fiktion und der subjektiven Wahrheit des Textes, was es zu einer intelligenten und unterhaltsamen Lektüre über das Wesen des Schreibens macht. 04:10:55 MIT: Your Brain on ChatGPT Stefan diskutiert eine Studie des MIT Media Lab, die die neuronalen Auswirkungen der Nutzung von ChatGPT beim Verfassen von Texten untersucht. Die Ergebnisse sind ernüchternd: Probanden, die KI-Hilfe nutzten, zeigten eine geringere Gehirnaktivität und eine stärkere Entfremdung vom eigenen Text. Originalität und Vielfalt der Texte nahmen ab, während die Konformität stieg. Die Studie legt nahe, dass die Bequemlichkeit von KI-Werkzeugen einen kognitiven Preis hat und die tiefere Auseinandersetzung mit einem Thema behindern kann. Interessanterweise wird in der Studie die Google-Suche, einst selbst als oberflächlich kritisiert, nun als positiver Vergleichsmaßstab zur LLM-Nutzung herangezogen. 04:22:19 Nina Scholz: Das Geschäft mit den Studis Wolfgang fasst eine umfangreiche Recherche der Journalistin Nina Scholz für die taz zusammen. Der Artikel beleuchtet das Geschäft mit indischen Studierenden in Deutschland. Diese werden von privaten Hochschulen wie der IU mit hohen Studiengebühren und dem Versprechen auf eine exzellente Ausbildung nach Deutschland gelockt. Die Realität sieht jedoch oft anders aus: Die Studierenden landen in teuren, überfüllten möblierten Wohnungen und müssen hauptsächlich an Online-Kursen teilnehmen. Um ihren Lebensunterhalt zu finanzieren, arbeiten viele unter prekären Bedingungen als Lieferfahrer. Der Text kritisiert die mangelnde Verantwortung von Bildungsinstitutionen und Politik. 04:31:14 Apple: The Illusion of Thinking Stefan bespricht ein bemerkenswertes Forschungspapier von Apple, das die Grenzen der aktuellen KI-Modelle aufzeigt. Entgegen dem Hype um die „Reasoning“-Fähigkeiten von LLMs demonstriert Apple, dass diese Systeme bei neuartigen und komplexen Problemen oft versagen. Die Modelle neigen zu „Overthinking“ oder geben bei schwierigen Aufgaben vorschnell auf. Mit dieser Veröffentlichung positioniert sich Apple als ein Unternehmen, das auf robuste und verlässliche technologische Lösungen abzielt, anstatt auf die unberechenbaren „Gimmicks“ der Konkurrenz. Es ist eine deutliche Kritik an der aktuellen Praxis, unausgereifte KI-Produkte auf den Markt zu bringen. 04:41:14 NYT: Online and IRL, Trump Offers a Window Into His Psyche Stefan verweist kurz auf einen Artikel der New York Times, der argumentiert, dass man für das Verständnis von Donald Trumps Politik keine tiefschürfenden Deutungsbücher brauche. Alles Wesentliche sei direkt in seinen öffentlichen Äußerungen und Handlungen sichtbar. 04:41:42 Simply Quartet: Streichquartette von Mendelssohn und Dvořák Zum Abschluss empfiehlt Wolfgang eine Aufnahme des Simply Quartet. Im Mittelpunkt steht Felix Mendelssohn-Bartholdys Streichquartett Nr. 6 in f-Moll, op. 80. Das Werk entstand als direkte Reaktion auf den plötzlichen Tod seiner geliebten Schwester Fanny und ist ein Ausdruck tiefsten Schmerzes. Es ist ein dramatisches, leidenschaftliches und fragmentiertes Stück, das mit den klassischen Konventionen bricht und in seiner harmonischen Kühnheit bereits auf das 20. Jahrhundert vorausweist. Wolfgang lobt die außergewöhnliche Dynamik und Präzision der Interpretation durch das Simply Quartet. full Wolfgang und Stefan treffen sich vorm Salon no Stefan Schulz und Wolfgang M. Schmitt 3377

Amid escalating federal pressure on universities, Stanford Law School alum Greg Lukianoff, JD '00, joins host Professor Pam Karlan for a sharp look at the free speech firestorms engulfing universities like Harvard and Columbia. First Amendment champion, president of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), and co-author of The Coddling of the American Mind, Lukianoff recently penned an essay for The Atlantic titled “Trump's Attacks Threaten Much More Than Harvard.” In this episode, Lukianoff expands on his essay, breaking down the Trump administration's tactics to punish elite institutions, from defunding threats and faculty interference to student visa crackdowns, while also calling out universities themselves for stifling dissent and eroding public trust in higher education.Links:Greg Lukianoff  >>> FIRE pageThe Canceling of the American Mind >>> web pageThe Coddling of the American Mind >>> web page“Trump's Attacks Threaten Much More Than Harvard” >>> The Atlantic pageConnect:Episode Transcripts >>> Stanford Legal Podcast WebsiteStanford Legal Podcast >>> LinkedIn PageRich Ford >>>  Twitter/XPam Karlan >>> Stanford Law School PageStanford Law School >>> Twitter/XStanford Lawyer Magazine >>> Twitter/X(00:00:00) Introduction of Greg Lukianoff(00:05:01) Free Speech and Academic Freedom(00:10:01) Challenges to Free Speech(00:15:01) Legal Cases and Free Speech(00:20:01) Free Speech and the Government (00:30:01) Future of Free Speech

Can game theory be used to win a world cup? Can you pay the way out of political corruption? And are there winning strategies in life we don't use because we're too embarrassed? We're sharing this special episode of Cautionary Tales in which Nate and Maria make an appearance to answer listener questions with CT host Tim Harford.For a full list of sources, see the show notes at timharford.com.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In the 899th episode of the PokerNews Podcast, Chad Holloway, Kyna England, and Mike Holtz are joined by PokerStars Team Pro Maria Konnikova at Level 9 Studio to offer their thoughts on the most polarizing player at the 2025 World Series of Poker (WSOP), Martin Kabrhel. Do you love him? Hate him? Is he either good or bad for poker? What sort of antics has he been up to? What poker player called him a p***y? Find out as the hosts don't shy away from sharing their thoughts on the boisterous high roller. Konnikova then talks about her upcoming book, hosting the Risky Business Podcast alongside Nate Silver, and what's going on over at PokerStars, including the upcoming NAPT and an emphasis on women's initiatives.  Also, learn about Joao Vieira winning $100K High Roller for his fourth bracelet and David “ODB” Baker taking down the $5K Seniors NLH for his fourth bracelet. Oh, and Michael Wang won a Wynn Summer Classic event for career-high $555K! Finally, see highlights from “Miami” John Cernuto's Celebration of Life, including a moving speech from his friend, Hollywood actor James Woods, and a look at the 2025 Poker Hall of Fame nominees. Find out who the crew thinks will get in and why. Learn about all those stories and more in the latest episode of the PokerNews Podcast! A new PokerNews Podcast will drop twice a week during the 2025 WSOP every Thursday and Sunday at 8a PT / 11a ET / 4p UK time. Remember to subscribe to our YouTube channel so you do not miss an episode! Time Stamps *Time | Topic* 00:00 | Welcome to the show 00:20 | Special guest Maria Konnikova 01:04 | How do you feel about Martin Kabrhel? 09:20 | Martin Kabrhel needles Texas Mike & slowrolls Jonathan Jaffe 15:30 | Martin Kabrhel gets handsy; pisses off Nick Schulman 16:43 | Kabrhel's lack of respect for personal space 18:33 | Hand of the 2025 WSOP – David Peters bluffs Kabrhel 23:27 | Poll – What are your thoughts on Martin Kabrhel? 23:58 | Sponsor – WSOP Free-to-Play App 24:34 | Get to know Maria Konnikova 26:43 | PokerStars women's initiatives 28:20 | NAPT coming up in November 29:05 | Sponsor – WPT Global 29:38 | Joao Vieira wins $100K High Roller for 4th bracelet 30:20 | David “ODB” Baker wins $5K Seniors NLH for 4th bracelet 30:50 | Michael Wang wins Wynn Summer Classic event for career-high $555K 31:45 | Highlights from “Miami” John Cernuto's Celebration of Life 33:08 | Actor James Woods gives moving speech remember Miami John 35:50 | 2025 Poker Hall of Fame nominees

This week, we're bringing you an episode of Risky Business, a podcast about better decision making from our friends Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. You can find more Risky Business at https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/risky-business-with-nate-silver-maria-konnikova. You can join Andrew and Carlos on ClubWPT ... Read more...

Aaron McIntire recaps the week's biggest stories, including Lucy Guo, a 30-year-old college dropout, surpassing Taylor Swift as the world's youngest self-made female billionaire with a $1.3 billion net worth from her Scale AI stake, co-founded with Alexandr Wang and backed by Peter Thiel. Concerns mount over Palantir Technologies' alleged contract with the Trump administration to build a centralized database on Americans, countered by ex-employee Wendy Anderson's defense of its data integration tools. Tim Walz and Nate Silver analyze young men's shift toward conservatism, with polls showing conservatives dominate among those with strong mental health. Plus, Stephen Miller slams Democrats' “unsellable ideology,” and fears grow over Chinese-owned properties near U.S. military bases.   Lucy Guo, Taylor Swift, Scale AI, Palantir Technologies, Peter Thiel, Alexandr Wang, Wendy Anderson, Trump administration, centralized database, Tim Walz, Nate Silver, young men voters, conservatism, Stephen Miller, Chinese investments, military bases, national security

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- Following a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-TX) took questions from the press about passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate. 6:30pm- While speaking with economist Oren Cass during a black-tie event in Washington DC, Vice President JD Vance joked that being referred to as an “intellectual” is insulting! 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 6:50pm- Daniel Turner—Founder and Executive Director of Power the Future—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to quickly recap his experience testifying before the House Oversight Committee earlier today where Democrat Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX) openly threatened him!

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Senators Ted Cruz and Cory Booker got into an argument over the Biden Administrations refusal to comply with Supreme Court rulings. The debate ended with Cruz hilariously referring to Booker as “Spartacus.” 6:30pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Show (06/03/2025): 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden. 4:05pm- Anna Kelly—White House Deputy Press Secretary—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. She reacts to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) inaccurate rant against the Republican bill where he baselessly claimed it would end “American energy dominance.” Many on the left continue to meltdown over every Trump-endorsed plan/policy. But during a recent interview, even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon advocated on behalf of the One Big Beautiful Bill—calling it essential for small business and strong economic growth. 4:30pm- Rich steals Justin's headset, Matt gets yelled at (as per usual), and Rich—with some help from the audience—relives some of his greatest injuries, including the time he was stung in the eye by a jellyfish! 4:45pm- In a series of articles published last week, The New York Times examined the Democrat Party's continued struggles appealing to the American electorate. Shane Goldmacher writes that Democrats “are still searching for the path forward”—noting that the party spent $20 million studying their “erosion” of support with “young men” specifically. In another article, Goldmacher—alongside June Kim and Christine Zhang—evaluate “how Donald Trump has remade America's political landscape.” They document that 435 counties across the country became more “Democratic” from 2012 and 2024—however, 2,678 counties became more “Republican.” Further complicating matters is the 2030 census which is expected to cause comfortably blue states to lose electoral votes as citizens move to red states. You can read the articles here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/us/politics/democratic-party-voters.html. And here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/25/us/politics/trump-politics-democrats.html. 5:00pm- Lenore Skenazy—Contributing Editor for Reason, Founder of the Free-Range Kids Movement, and President of Let Grow—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss her latest article, “Mom Arrested, Facing 5 Years in Prison for Leaving 8- and 10-Year-Old Boys at Home.” David DeLugas—Attorney & Executive Director Member of the Board Founder of Parents USA—is representing the Georgia mom and offers a legal update. You can learn more about the story here: https://reason.com/2025/05/29/mom-arrested-facing-5-years-in-prison-for-leaving-8-and-10-year-old-boys-at-home/. And here: https://www.pledge.to/ParentsUSA-Kids-alone-Mom-arrested. 5:25pm- During a conversation on Matt Taibbi's podcast, novelist Walter Kirn revealed that George Orwell's “1984” now comes with a trigger warning! 5:40pm- Jimmy Failla—Host of “Fox News Saturday with Jimmy Failla” & “Fox Across America”—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss their frequent appearances together on Fox News. Failla will be performing at SoulJoel's in Montgomery County, PA on August 9th. You can find information about tickets here: https://radio. ...

The Rich Zeoli Show- Opening Monologue (06/03/2025): On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. And in a new article posted to his Substack, Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? He concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

Aaron McIntire covers the fallout from the Boulder terror attack by Mohamed Sabry Soliman, with Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi vowing to deport the Egyptian national and prosecute anti-Semitic violence. Senate Majority Leader John Thune warns of a $2.6 trillion tax hike if the “big, beautiful bill” fails, while the Washington Post baffles over a “mysterious” fentanyl drop at the secured border. Democrats struggle to connect with young men, as Nate Silver's data reveals conservatives dominate among those with strong mental health, hinting at a spiritual divide.   news, politics, Aaron McIntire, Mohamed Sabry Soliman, Boulder attack, terrorism, illegal immigration, Donald Trump, Pam Bondi, hate crime, deportation, John Thune, big beautiful bill, tax increase, child tax credit, Washington Post, fentanyl, border security, Axios, economy, optimism, ICE, masks, doxxing, Moderna, COVID vaccine, Mount Etna, volcano, global warming, Steve Milloy, Tim Walz, young men, Nate Silver, mental health, spiritual battle, current events  

Democrat pollster Nate Silver says the quiet parts outloud. Democrats have a big problem with mental health and they expect you to play along with their delusions. Target tones down their pride month apparel as Boise shuts down Pride Season for a lack of interest. Boulder terrorists says he wants to kill all Zionist while former deputy director of the FBI Andrew McCabe says not to jump to conclusions of the terrorist's motive. Maxine Waters punished for accepting illegal campaign donations. When is she going to jail?

Shedeur Sanders fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, and ESPN is struggling to handle it. Many people on the internet believe that Shedeur's drop in the draft was due to racism, especially since Cam Ward was the number-one overall pick. This situation doesn't make sense to them. There's widespread outrage over Shedeur being subjected to a prank call, even though prank calls happen to players all the time and usually go unreported. Mel Kiper has embarrassed himself by strongly supporting the Sanders family during this situation, similar to how Nate Silver has handled other controversial topics. ESPN's coverage is becoming a joke, and it's time for the race-baiting to end. Later in the show, Steve Kim joins to discuss Tupac Shedeur. Skap Attack and Whitlock react to the L.A. Lakers being down 3-1 in their playoff series against the Timberwolves. ​​Today's Sponsors: Relief Factor With Relief Factor, you'll feel better every day, and you'll live better every day. Get their 3-Week QuickStart for only $19.95 – that's less than a dollar a day. Call 1-800-4-Relief Or Visit https://ReliefFactor.com  Home Title Lock Go to https://hometitlelock.com/fearless and use promo code FEARLESS to get a FREE title history report so you can find out if you're already a victim AND 14 days of protection for FREE! And make sure to check out the Million Dollar TripleLock protection details when you get there! Exclusions apply. For details, visit https://hometitlelock.com/warranty BlueChew Enhance your sexual experiences with BlueChew, the first brand to offer chewable tablets for better sex. Get your first month FREE — just cover the $5 shipping fee — by using the promo code FEARLESS at https://BlueChew.com. Fearless Army Roll Call 3.0 Roll Call 3.0 continues the mission of men encouraging each other to pursue holiness and the execution of The Great Commission (Matthew 28: 19-20) by seeking alliance and fellowship with men who share our faith, values and commitment to obey our Lord and Savior. Join hundreds of like-minded men in Nashville on May 2nd-3rd for this important conference. Lunch will be included. Tickets are available right now at https://www.fearlessrollcall.com. SHOW OUTLINE 00:00 Intro We want to hear from the Fearless Army!! Join the conversation in the show chat, leave a comment or email Jason at FearlessBlazeShow@gmail.com Want more Fearless content? Subscribe to Jason Whitlock Harmony for a biblical perspective on everyday issues at https://www.youtube.com/@JasonWhitlockHarmony Get 10% off Blaze swag by using code Fearless10 at https://shop.blazemedia.com/fearless Make yourself an official member of the “Fearless Army!” Support Conservative Voices! Subscribe to BlazeTV at https://get.blazetv.com/FEARLESS and get $20 off your yearly subscription. Visit https://TheBlaze.com. Explore the all-new ad-free experience and see for yourself how we're standing up against suppression and prioritizing independent journalism. CLICK HERE to Subscribe to Jason Whitlock's YouTube: https://bit.ly/3jFL36G CLICK HERE to Listen to Jason Whitlock's podcast: https://apple.co/3zHaeLTCLICK HERE to Follow Jason Whitlock on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3hvSjiJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:00pm- Police officials provided an update on the shooting that occurred at Florida State University. FSU Chief of Police Jason Trumbower confirmed that two people have died, and six others are at a local hospital with gunshot wounds. The shooter was also taken to the hospital. Despite initial reports that there were two shooters, police confirmed the shooter acted alone and there is no further threat to the community. 6:15pm- According to reports, the suspected Florida State University shooter—Phoenix Ikner—was quoted in an FSU News article earlier this year. He stated: “I think it's a little too late, he's [Trump] already going to be inaugurated on Jan. 20 and there's not really much you can do unless you outright revolt, and I don't think anyone wants that.” FSU News has removed the quote from the story—leaving an editorial notation of the decision. 6:20pm- Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee David Hogg announced that he plans to challenge moderate Democrats in upcoming primaries—favoring more progressive challengers. In response, James Carville called for the DNC to sue Hogg for misappropriating funds. 6:30pm- Statistician/FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver and podcast co-host Galen Druke revealed that they believe Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, at this moment, is the most likely hypothetical candidate to be the Democrat Party's 2028 presidential nominee. Meanwhile, George Clooney reveals his preference in 2028 is Maryland Governor Wes Moore. 6:50pm- Rich gets invited to the White House…twice in one week! Weekday afternoons on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT, Rich Zeoli gives the expert analysis and humorous take that we need in this crazy political climate. Along with Executive Producer Matt DeSantis and Justin Otero, the Zeoli show is the next generation of talk radio and you can be a part of it weekday afternoons 3-7pm.

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @pjchougule Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

The Ochelli Effect 3-27-2025 NEWSThe Signal and The Noise is more than a bookGooGle AI Explains:The Signal:Represents the true, underlying information or pattern that we are trying to extract or predict. The Noise:Refers to random variations, errors, or irrelevant factors that can obscure or distort the signal, making it difficult to identify the true underlying pattern. Nate Silver's Book:In his book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't," Silver explores how to better understand and make predictions by focusing on the signal and minimizing the influence of noise. Between the Signal and the NoiseToday;s TABLE SETTERSRepublicans Funded that Portrait Trump Hates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKFWthykMKkTesla Stock Jumps. What's Behind the Rise.https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-today-self-driving-sales-6a9e7a8c3/25/25 Hell & High Water with Meria & Chuck Ochellihttps://meria.net/2025/03/hell-high-water-with-meria-chuck-ochelli-5/The Best Evidence Hoax and David Lifton's War Against the Critics of the Warren Commissionby Roger Feinmanhttp://22november1963.org.uk/roger-feinman-between-the-signal-and-the-noiseZelenskyy sensationally predicts Putin 'will die soon'https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-sensationally-predicts-putin-will-die-soonBook Brief: The Signal and the NoiseWhy So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don'thttps://clearpurpose.media/book-brief-the-signal-and-the-noise-3cee7501407823andMe files for bankruptcy, Anne Wojcicki steps down as CEOhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/23andme-files-for-bankruptcy-anne-wojcicki-steps-down-as-ceo.htmlTexas lawmakers advance bill that makes it a crime for teachers to assign "Catcher in the Rye"https://popular.info/p/texas-lawmakers-advance-bill-that  Jon Stewart on Which Speech Is Free and Which Will Cost You in Trump's Americahttps://youtu.be/sNMdRzK9Nj0?si=7Mxb4e7tH7cH8c6l&t=942Crockett calls Texas Gov. Abbott ‘Governor Hot Wheels' https://thehill.com/homenews/5213119-republican-criticism-crockett-comments/‘F*** off': Danish official has message for Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGCcIOF9qGERepublican truck driver Ed Durr ends bid to be New Jersey governor and backs Bill Spadeahttps://apnews.com/article/ed-durr-new-jersey-governor-c59d535d456bfa0467e4161943bf97fd---JFK DOCUMENT DUMP 2025What's going on with the Kennedy Center under Trump? And JFK DOC DUMP 2025https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-center-trump-what-to-https://know-4305e2c3d5611c4bfb1686d597727369https://newrepublic.com/post/192932/trump-plan-kennedy-center-leaked-audiohttps://www.eastbaytimes.com/2025/03/19/leaked-kennedy-center-audio-trumps-love-for-1980s-cats/JFK Assassination Records - 2025 Documents Release    March 18, 2025 - 7 PM EST Release: 32,000 pages (1,123 PDF files)    March 18, 2025 - 10:30 PM EST Release: 31,400 pages (1,059 PDF files)    March 20, 2025 - 9:30 PM EST Release: 13,700 pages (161 PDF files)    March 26, 2025 - 3:30 PM EST Release: 53 pages (16 PDF files)https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025The Ochelli Effect 3-26-2025 Larry Hancock - Mike Swanson https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-ochelli-effect-3-26-2025-larry-hancock-mike-swanson--651452183/26/25: EQUIS - JFK BLOWN AWAY, WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE TO SAY? W/ CHUCK OCHELLI https://groundzeroplus.com/3-26-25-equis-jfk-blown-away-what-else-do-i-have-to-say-w-chuck-ochelli/JFK Live Podcast: How Angleton Duped Congressional Investigators About th Surveillance of Oswaldhttps://jfkfacts.substack.com/p/jfk-live-podcast-how-angleton-duped?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=315632&post_id=160033915&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=68fjc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email---SIGNAL,NOISE,RINSE,REPEAT  PATTERNS? From 'We All Make Mistakes' To 'Hegseth Should Be Stepping Down': Lawmakers React To War Plans LeakForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSbLpKY65k0“F—king Idiot”: Trump Team Considers Fall Guy for War Plans Group Chathttps://newrepublic.com/post/193122/trump-team-considers-fall-guy-war-plans-group-chatSen. Mike Warner speaks on 'pattern' of national security mishapshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/iTMofueJNRUMark Warner D-VA Intell Committee Vice Chair https://youtube.com/shorts/kZEMEerDJGc?si=jke1Nb_pcOH6tEh5Trump officials texted war plans to a group chat in a secure app that included a journalisthttps://apnews.com/article/war-plans-trump-hegseth-atlantic-230718a984911dd8663d59edbcb86f2a‘That's a lie': Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg reacts to Hegseth's claims about group chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJQwmGEcwmUPresident Trump on Atlantic's Editor-in-Chief Being Accidentally Included in a Signal Group Chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBfJLfiF7HcThe Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Planshttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ WATCH: Trump Reveals To Reporters His Take On JD Vance's Comments In The Leaked Signal Group ChatForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqE1TkOcqEQThe Atlantic editor explains why they released entire Signal chat of Hegseth's detailed attack planshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xahace-QxxgSignal chat records must be preserved, federal judge tells Trump administrationhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/signal-chat-case-judge-messagesPresident Trump speaks on Signal group chat leak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XQgjupry_w&list=RDNS3XQgjupry_w&start_radio=1

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs  13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don't have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Andrea Jones-Rooy! Comedian! Scientist! Podcaster! Circus performer! Friend! Delight! More! Want more information? Well, you've come to the right place: ABOUT ANDREA JONES-ROOY Ph.D.: Andrea Jones-Rooy is a unique voice who combines science with comedy to empower audiences of any education level to utilize data and tools accessible to all. AJR helps people learn to cut through the noise, better understand our world, and emboldens them to act. AJR holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. Formerly a professor of data science at NYU and a quantitative researcher at FiveThirtyEight, Andrea speaks and trains globally at organizations that include Fortune 500s, tech companies, and the UN, on how to apply data science to their toughest problems. She currently hosts the podcast Behind the Data, and previously hosted the podcast Majoring in Everything. AJR is also a stand-up comedian and circus performer, although she has done neither at the UN (yet). ABOUT THE PODCAST "BEHIND THE DATA" (SEASON 2 COMING SOON) Data is all around us, and it powers a lot of our world, but where does it come from? Who collects it? How do we know if it's any good? Each week data scientist and standup comedian Andrea Jones-Rooy, Ph.D. brings you a new story about the humans and decisions behind important data that influences our lives - from political polls to measures of democracy, from tracking happiness around the world to powering AI. Join us on a journey to understand why making sense of the world depends not just on our ability to analyze it, but on the data we source in the first place. At the heart of any data that matters are real human stories about why we care about what we do.  For example, crime data describes ‘reported crime', which is different from (and less-than) ‘actual crime'. The two deviate to differing extents for different crimes - auto theft has a high rate of reporting due to insurance claims, while rape is horrifyingly underreported. Andrea Jones-Rooy will discuss how to navigate this churning ocean of data in which we are all swimming (whether we want to or not). Joined by weekly expert guests, Andrea will bring her signature engaging style to investigate the ways data on polling, crime, jobs, movies, fitness, medicine, democracy, and happiness are created, and help us to understand what we can and cannot (yet) learn from it. If you are affected by ANY of these subjects (you are), you're not going to want to miss this podcast! Season 1 guests include: Dhrumil Mehta, Journalism professor at Columbia University, formerly database journalist at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Ben Casselman, New York Times economics and business reporter Christie Aschwanden, science journalist and author of the NYT bestselling book, Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn from the Strange Science of Discovery Dr. Steven Novella, clinical neurologist and host The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe podcast Walt Hickey, pulitzer prize winning data journalist, author You Are What You Watch: How Movies and TV Affect Everything, creator and writer Numlock News And more! Behind the Data is produced as part of the Daily Tech News Show (DTNS) network, which is dedicated to providing news about technology that is easy to understand. With a unique blend of ‘smartypants' comedy and actual science, Andrea seeks to help listeners understand how data shapes the world, and to teach everybody (not just scientists) to use data to inform their thinking. Remember, data doesn't have to be a four letter word! ABOUT THE PODCAST CONVERSATION BETWEEN ME AND ANDREA: It is fun! Please enjoy! And this is only the first HALF of our conversation. For part two, subscribe via Apple Podcasts OR just head on over to Patreon!

"A shameless recycling of existing content to drive additional audience engagement on the cheap… or the single best, most valuable, and most insight-dense episode we put out in the entire year, depending on how you want to look at it." — Rob WiblinIt's that magical time of year once again — highlightapalooza! Stick around for one top bit from each episode, including:How to use the microphone on someone's mobile phone to figure out what password they're typing into their laptopWhy mercilessly driving the New World screwworm to extinction could be the most compassionate thing humanity has ever doneWhy evolutionary psychology doesn't support a cynical view of human nature but actually explains why so many of us are intensely sensitive to the harms we cause to othersHow superforecasters and domain experts seem to disagree so much about AI risk, but when you zoom in it's mostly a disagreement about timingWhy the sceptics are wrong and you will want to use robot nannies to take care of your kids — and also why despite having big worries about the development of AGI, Carl Shulman is strongly against efforts to pause AI research todayHow much of the gender pay gap is due to direct pay discrimination vs other factorsHow cleaner wrasse fish blow the mirror test out of the waterWhy effective altruism may be too big a tent to work wellHow we could best motivate pharma companies to test existing drugs to see if they help cure other diseases — something they currently have no reason to bother with…as well as 27 other top observations and arguments from the past year of the show.Check out the full transcript and episode links on the 80,000 Hours website.Remember that all of these clips come from the 20-minute highlight reels we make for every episode, which are released on our sister feed, 80k After Hours. So if you're struggling to keep up with our regularly scheduled entertainment, you can still get the best parts of our conversations there.It has been a hell of a year, and we can only imagine next year is going to be even weirder — but Luisa and Rob will be here to keep you company as Earth hurtles through the galaxy to a fate as yet unknown.Enjoy, and look forward to speaking with you in 2025!Chapters:Rob's intro (00:00:00)Randy Nesse on the origins of morality and the problem of simplistic selfish-gene thinking (00:02:11)Hugo Mercier on the evolutionary argument against humans being gullible (00:07:17)Meghan Barrett on the likelihood of insect sentience (00:11:26)Sébastien Moro on the mirror test triumph of cleaner wrasses (00:14:47)Sella Nevo on side-channel attacks (00:19:32)Zvi Mowshowitz on AI sleeper agents (00:22:59)Zach Weinersmith on why space settlement (probably) won't make us rich (00:29:11)Rachel Glennerster on pull mechanisms to incentivise repurposing of generic drugs (00:35:23)Emily Oster on the impact of kids on women's careers (00:40:29)Carl Shulman on robot nannies (00:45:19)Nathan Labenz on kids and artificial friends (00:50:12)Nathan Calvin on why it's not too early for AI policies (00:54:13)Rose Chan Loui on how control of OpenAI is independently incredibly valuable and requires compensation (00:58:08)Nick Joseph on why he's a big fan of the responsible scaling policy approach (01:03:11)Sihao Huang on how the US and UK might coordinate with China (01:06:09)Nathan Labenz on better transparency about predicted capabilities (01:10:18)Ezra Karger on what explains forecasters' disagreements about AI risks (01:15:22)Carl Shulman on why he doesn't support enforced pauses on AI research (01:18:58)Matt Clancy on the omnipresent frictions that might prevent explosive economic growth (01:25:24)Vitalik Buterin on defensive acceleration (01:29:43)Annie Jacobsen on the war games that suggest escalation is inevitable (01:34:59)Nate Silver on whether effective altruism is too big to succeed (01:38:42)Kevin Esvelt on why killing every screwworm would be the best thing humanity ever did (01:42:27)Lewis Bollard on how factory farming is philosophically indefensible (01:46:28)Bob Fischer on how to think about moral weights if you're not a hedonist (01:49:27)Elizabeth Cox on the empirical evidence of the impact of storytelling (01:57:43)Anil Seth on how our brain interprets reality (02:01:03)Eric Schwitzgebel on whether consciousness can be nested (02:04:53)Jonathan Birch on our overconfidence around disorders of consciousness (02:10:23)Peter Godfrey-Smith on uploads of ourselves (02:14:34)Laura Deming on surprising things that make mice live longer (02:21:17)Venki Ramakrishnan on freezing cells, organs, and bodies (02:24:46)Ken Goldberg on why low fault tolerance makes some skills extra hard to automate in robots (02:29:12)Sarah Eustis-Guthrie on the ups and downs of founding an organisation (02:34:04)Dean Spears on the cost effectiveness of kangaroo mother care (02:38:26)Cameron Meyer Shorb on vaccines for wild animals (02:42:53)Spencer Greenberg on personal principles (02:46:08)Producing and editing: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongVideo editing: Simon MonsourTranscriptions: Katy Moore

SEASON 3 EPISODE 75: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN Special Edition (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Some time over Thanksgiving in Nantucket the light bulb went off over Joe Biden's head and he finally realized that no, the norms and traditions and institutions to which he and most of the rest of us have dedicated our lives did NOT miraculously re-grow, did NOT suddenly spring, fully restored and intact, from the ground. He saw that not only was his son about to go to prison because of his own foolish decision to not interfere with an enfeebled Department of Justice, and because of the dictator it let get away, who would now aim his DOJ at Hunter Biden - and Joe Biden - and anybody else - for personal revenge. The President figured this out and pulled his son out of harm's way. And much of he left attacked him for it. They are Morons. I don't care about Hunter Biden, particularly. I care about the fact that we are 48 days away from a nascent military dictatorship taking over this government, supported by an unknown percentage of the population that wants to see Hunter and Joe Biden hanging from construction cranes parading through the streets, and wants to see Trump in power for life. A We JUST got one more guy out of their sights and we JUST shoved one more plotline up Trump, and up Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth and Stephen Miller and whichever other lunatics Trump wants to take over the asylum. And countless liberals – and anti-Trumpers – think this will actually provide cover for Trump pardoning the January 6thinsurrectionists because apparently for the last ten years they have been hallucinating and thinking Trump has ever bothered to seek cover for anything. Or they think we should be "better" than them. The Trumpists are planning to put us in camps. I don't care if we are better than them or worse than them or monstrous to them. If somebody's going to go to camps, it ain't going to be us, it's got to be them. End of debate. In addition to explaining why this was not just the right decision but should be a template of thousands of further pardons, permit me to excoriate a bunch of the clowns who cannot see the forest for the trees. Or the fact that the forest is on fire. And then for giggles we have the moronic comments of Nate Silver and Dinesh D'Souza, complaining about pardons when he himself got an undeserved pardon. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Episode (11/13/2024): 3:00pm- On Tuesday night, Donald Trump announced that he has selected Army Combat Veteran & Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense. There were also rumors circulating that Marco Rubio may not ultimately be Trump's selection for Secretary of State. 3:05pm- RESTART THE SHOW! Donald Trump officially announces that Senator Marco Rubio is his selection to serve as Secretary of State. In a statement, the president-elect wrote: “Marco is a Highly Respected Leader, and a very powerful Voice for Freedom. He will be a strong Advocate for our Nation, a true friend to our Allies, and a fearless Warrior who will never back down to our adversaries. I look forward to working with Marco to Make America, and the World, Safe and Great Again!” 3:10pm- Who might Governor Ron DeSantis pick to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate? According to Axios, Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) is pushing for Lara Trump—Donald Trump's daughter-in-law and co-chair of the RNC. However, Politico suggests the front runner is likely James Uthmeier—DeSantis's current Chief of Staff. 3:15pm- More breaking news…RESTART THE SHOW AGAIN! Donald Trump officially announces Tulsi Gabbard is his choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He wrote in a statement: “For over two decades, Tulsi has fought for our Country and the Freedoms of all Americans. As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties - She is now a proud Republican! I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength. Tulsi will make us all proud!” 3:30pm- On his Truth Social Account, Donald Trump wrote: “It is my Great Honor to announce that Congressman Matt Gaetz, of Florida, is hereby nominated to be The Attorney General of the United States. Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice. Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System.” 3:40pm- Does Matt Gaetz have enough support to get confirmed as U.S. Attorney General? Nate Silver, PolyMarket odds, and others on social media suggest it might not be a foregone conclusion that the U.S. Senate will confirm his appointment. 4:00pm- On Wednesday, president-elect Donald Trump met with President Joe Biden in the White House Oval Office to discuss administration transition plans. 4:15pm- CNN Has Already Begun to Attack Tulsi Gabbard. CNN host Boris Sanchez baselessly suggested that Tulsi Gabbard might be a Russian asset—and asked Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) if he was comfortable with Gabbard having access to the nation's most sensitive secrets as Director of National Intelligence. 4:30pm- If some of Donald Trump's cabinet picks struggle to get confirmed in the U.S. Senate, could he use recess appointments? Jess Bravin of The Wall Street Journal writes of recess appointments: “The Senate wasn't conceived to continuously be in session, and the vagaries of 18th-century communication and transportation meant that weeks could go by before lawmakers could be reconvened for an emergency. To keep the government staffed, the Constitution provides that the president may fill vacancies while the Senate is in recess, but those commissions expire at the end of the next session of Congress. That means a recess appointee can't hold office longer than two years, the length of a congressional session.” You can read more about recess appointments here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-recess-appointments-senate-179a16f7 4:45pm- While appearing on a podcast, Sunny Hostin revealed that she thought she was asking Kamala Harris softball questions during the Vice Pr ...

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:00pm- On Tuesday night, Donald Trump announced that he has selected Army Combat Veteran & Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense. There were also rumors circulating that Marco Rubio may not ultimately be Trump's selection for Secretary of State. 3:05pm- RESTART THE SHOW! Donald Trump officially announces that Senator Marco Rubio is his selection to serve as Secretary of State. In a statement, the president-elect wrote: “Marco is a Highly Respected Leader, and a very powerful Voice for Freedom. He will be a strong Advocate for our Nation, a true friend to our Allies, and a fearless Warrior who will never back down to our adversaries. I look forward to working with Marco to Make America, and the World, Safe and Great Again!” 3:10pm- Who might Governor Ron DeSantis pick to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate? According to Axios, Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) is pushing for Lara Trump—Donald Trump's daughter-in-law and co-chair of the RNC. However, Politico suggests the front runner is likely James Uthmeier—DeSantis's current Chief of Staff. 3:15pm- More breaking news…RESTART THE SHOW AGAIN! Donald Trump officially announces Tulsi Gabbard is his choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He wrote in a statement: “For over two decades, Tulsi has fought for our Country and the Freedoms of all Americans. As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties - She is now a proud Republican! I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength. Tulsi will make us all proud!” 3:30pm- On his Truth Social Account, Donald Trump wrote: “It is my Great Honor to announce that Congressman Matt Gaetz, of Florida, is hereby nominated to be The Attorney General of the United States. Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice. Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System.” 3:40pm- Does Matt Gaetz have enough support to get confirmed as U.S. Attorney General? Nate Silver, PolyMarket odds, and others on social media suggest it might not be a foregone conclusion that the U.S. Senate will confirm his appointment.

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren't predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren't — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted' movement,' talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.Show Notes:Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UXCheck out Nate Silver's polling – https://www.natesilver.net/Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

SERIES 3 EPISODE 64: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Yeah, I heard it too. I heard him he "shouldn't have left" the White House when his term ended. And I heard him say AT his rally that he wouldn't mind people shooting at the reporters COVERING his rally. And I guess it's shocking. Except he's been saying these things (a little more coded) since 2015, and he said the shooting thing about Liz Cheney last Thursday night. And after all he is going through what the shrinks call “disinhibition” AT the rallies where he loses all sense of what he should say in private not public. But that's not what got me. I heard something I have never heard before. WHEN he said he wouldn't mind people shooting the "fake news," he said he wouldn't mind them shooting THROUGH "the fake news" - THROUGH it - AT him. Doesn't that sound kind of… what's the word? Suicidal? Plus: I understand that we are inside the 48 hour bubble before the election and the pressure is like 887 Atmospheric Units and our rage against this creature and his cult that wants to burn this country to the ground – burn this world to the ground – and our amazement that there is ANYBODY voting for him – that RAGE is at unbearable levels – but… didn't he sound kinda dead yesterday? At one point he was inaudible. At another, in North Carolina, he thought he was in Pennsylvania. Throughout, he sounded exactly like Hal the Computer in the movie “2001” when they unplugged him. PRACTICALLY SPEAKING on the eve of the election, the polls continue to support a Harris victory (size TBD) and this shocking poll where she's up by 3 in Iowa hides an even more shocking number (she's ahead by 20 among women in the whitest part of the midwest). And the reaction to the pollster who published this 21 point swing from June tells you all you need to know about polling. They have previously insisted Ann Selser was an immortal. Now they're saying she's making the rest of them look bad by not tailoring her poll to fit their narrative. B-Block (30:33) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: A Trumpist has vowed to "castrate himself on camera" if Harris wins Iowa (if you're a Trumpist, haven't you already castrated yourself?). Chris Cillizza 2024 mocks everybody who didn't buy the conventional wisdom about the vice presidency (evidently including Chris Cillizza 2020, who had disproved it), and courtesy Tim Alberta in The Atlantic, we find a new reason to hate Trump. This is the real reason he's so mad Biden dropped out. Trump thought he had the perfect nickname for the President - and it's appalling. C-Block (37:48) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: I call it The Annual Day I Get Trapped Inside My Home Day. You know it - and may have seen it on TV yesterday - as "The New York City Marathon."  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 59: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: "GARBAGE" IS STICKING TO THE TEFLON DON AS SCANDAL WORSENS; 'COMEDIAN' WANTED TO CALL KAMALA HARRIS THE C-WORD:  The Madison Square Garden “Puerto Rico Is Garbage” disaster is not only NOT going away; it is still getting worse, with the news that Trump staffers VETTED that statement AND the tasteless reference to Latinos entering the country and the rest of the Tony Hinchcliffe comments and Hinchcliffe's script originally included a line in which he dropped a c-word in describing Kamala Harris. The news site “The Bulwark” is reporting that, and that Trump staffers directed Hinchcliffe to take it out… BUT that they missed the anti-Hispanic material or as they have now claimed Hinchcliffe ad libbed all that even though the video clearly shows him reading his material off the same teleprompter everybody else used. Day three of Trump's self-immolation among Hispanic voters who make up twelve percent of the electorate – one WEEK before the election and no sign that it – like every previous racist Trump controversy – is actually abating. STILL the lead story at the New York Times – at one point it had SIX front page stories – AND at the Washington Post – AND on the Fox News talk shows AND at the Wall Street Journal AND at the ultra-conservative Washington Examiner AND when the Trump campaign's defense is ‘well at least he didn't call her a rhymes-with-bunt like he planned' they have actually stepped neck high in it, especially since the pro-Trump PAC run by Elon Musk posted tweets based on the C-Word. Literally, says “The C- Word.” Even the fig leaf usually accepted by the bothsidesist media looking for a way – SOME way, ANY way – to avoid slamming Trump – has opened up a whole new line of stories: the disingenuous statement from the conveniently Latina spokesperson disavowing the jokes only served to spin off a series of reports on all the OTHER remarks Hinchcliffe and others made Sunday at Madison Square Garden: from the line about African-Americans and watermelons and the line calling the Vice President's staff “pimp handlers.” And the story is still expanding. Now Joe Rogan and Robert F. Kennedy Junior have been sucked under. AND AS THE VIBE KEEPS SHIFTING TOWARDS HARRIS there are plenty of different flavors of insurrection to worry about but a Contingent Election isn't one of them. B-Block (21:05) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Trump has a "Sir" story. The Border Patrol agents said he was better on the border than Lincoln. The Don't-Cancel-Your-WaPo-Subscription crowd is missing the point: don't criticize angry ex-customers. If you can, join them. And it's not enough to bully reporters into sanewashing Trump, you must reward them. Thus CNN's embarrassment Dana Bash is profiled in The Wall Street Journal and we are told: This Is Her Moment. C-Block (33:20) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: If Trump ruined Giuliani's life, why was Rudy at Trump's self-immolation at Madison Square Garden? Well among other things I believe Rudy now lives in a hallway at Penn Station so it was a quick commute. Plus, you may not have known but Rudy's been nuts since at least the mid-90's, as I'll tell you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can't admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won't accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics. If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe. Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That's why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life's most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 57: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) BULLETIN: After the Wall Street Journal's stunning story linking Elon Musk to Vladimir Putin and other members of the Russian dictatorship, it is no longer feasible nor safe to permit Elon Musk to continue to have access to any project involving the government of the United States, nor for Musk to remain at large in this country. The government should sever all connections with him immediately and seize all his technological assets including SpaceX, StarLink, and Twitter-X – and if need be, detain him, deport him, or if it descends to that level, arrest him. The safety of the nation may depend upon it.  A team of journal writers led by Thomas Grove has now reported – to quote them - “Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022. The discussions, confirmed by several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials, touch on personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions.”  The Journal cites two sources who say that Musk's relationship was more than just conversational. They claim Putin asked Musk to NOT activate his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan, as quote “a favor to Chinese leader Shee Jinping.” That, the Journal reports, happened late last year and its source is a former Russian intelligence officer. The Journal further reports one of Musk's primary contacts is a Putin henchman just cited by the Department of Justice as the agent behind more than 30 websites designed to spread disinformation about Ukraine and the U.S. election - some of it via Musk's Twitter-X platform. (7:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Why is Kamala Harris in Texas tonight? I mean, yes, Colin Allred has a longshot's chance of upsetting Ted Cruz and a Democratic Infomercial starring Beyonce is a national event not a local one. But taking the time from stumping in a battleground state would, on the surface, be something Trump would do (and will do, Sunday, in New York, unless he gets lost on the way to Madison Square Garden). Strategically the Harris Texas trip makes no sense - unless... Unless her internal polling confirms two things that are beginning to show up in the early voting data and polling, plus the simulations of the Electoral College vote. It appears that even in states where Republican early voters outnumber the Democrats, she's winning by 55-45 (or better). And the forecasters are suggesting that as close as the swing states look they make actually all go to one of the two candidates, though they can't say who. So there is the very real possibility - and don't relax, just take a deep breath as you contemplate this - that Kamala Harris can actually afford to take the night "off." (23:20) THE WORST JOURNALISTS IN THE WORLD: A special segment saluting the gutless owner of the L.A. Times who refused to print the paper's endorsement of Harris in one of the bluest communities in the country; Dana Bash, who somehow did worse than she did at the debate; Erick Erickson who says Trump has a type and it's not Melania. B-Block (30:00) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Yankees boss Brian Cashman explains his total under-performance since 2001 by blaming cheaters (ignoring evidence of Yankee cheating in 1999, 2000, 2009, 2011). Nicole Shanahan reportedly offered to pay off a Washington Post reporter working on a story about her. Lara Trump thinks there are 81 states. C-Block (40:10) FRIDAYS WITH THURBER: The political fables! Including "The Peacelike Mongoose," "The Very Proper Gander," "The Moth And The Star," and "The Owl Who Was God."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Krystal and Saagar discuss former model accuses Trump of groping, John Kelly says Trump is fascist, Nate Silver says Trump will win, Axelrod calls out Kamala word salad.   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com   Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump is surging, Kamala is flailing, and Nate Silver says his "gut" is that Trump will win. So, what's the left's last-ditch play? Compare Trump to Hitler! Kash Patel joins Charlie to talk about this pathetic rehash of 2016 rhetoric. Plus, Sergio Gor talks about publishing the president's books, working with Don Junior, and the "Mother of All Trump Rallies" happening in Georgia tonight.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 53: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: You are HERE - at this spot in the map of madness where the New York Times and Politico tried to get away with lying and reporting Trump's Saturday Arnold Palmer Penis Length monologue – the first thing he has seemed actually INTERESTED in, in weeks - was just ‘telling golf stories.' You are HERE - where Howard Kurtz actually held Trump more accountable than the Times or Politico or nearly every major news organization. You are HERE where the Times has been front row for one of the greatest unprecedented political stories in human history – just on a sell-more-newspapers, first draft of history level – I mean it's up there with the rise of Hitler and the mid-press conference suicide of the Pennsylvania State Treasurer and the death of President Faure of France with his mistress atop him and both of them atop the presidential desk – the Madness of King Trump – and the Times could have owned this story for all time but the Sulzberger-Kahn idea of how to cover this presidential race was to finally look at the Trump Penis Envy and try to explain or analyze it and come up with only two possible explanations: frustration or a desire to entertain. Not: Trump is a full-on KKK level racist and a rapist-in-spirit if not in absolute literal legal fact, and/or Trump is absolutely, positively nuts. You are HERE where Nate Silver predicts Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, win the Electoral College - and still lose the election. Where the polls in Michigan have her behind by half a point OR ahead by eight.  You are HERE where a putatively STRAIGHT man Trump spends an awful lot of time talking about other men's penises and using expletives to demean women, and where Trump drags in a really damaged former SportsCenter co-anchor of mine named Sage Steele and makes her the emcee of one of his staged events and the crowd BOOS HER and he MISPRONOUNCES her name. Journalism. Use it or lose it. On January 20th. Mr. Sulzberger, you and your Times executives and editors will have helped end democracy in America or damn near done so. Those of us who survive will remember. B-Block (20:26) SPECIAL COMMENT: So why are we in this horrific place? How are we one week and one day to the election and how is it possible that the polls show anything other than a double-digit lead for the party of the non-racist, able-to-read, non-conspiracy theory candidate? The answer is two words: Mike Tyson. It was trainer Cus D'Amato and his associate Kevin Rooney who perfected managing Tyson's medication in such a way that they could keep him stable nearly all the time, and then gradually lower his dose in the weeks and days before a fight so that all his maniacal energy would appear IN the ring.  And then in 1988, two men stepped in to try to take over Mike Tyson's contract and Mike Tyson's life: Don King and Donald Trump. King said Tyson should be making millions more than he did under Rooney and manager Bill Cayton, and Trump showed Tyson the world of jet-setters. When Tyson complained that the drugs he needed to keep life manageable made him sleepy and uncomfortable and unhappy, Trump told Tyson: Why are you TAKING them? You are the youngest heavyweight champion in history, you can do what you WANT, you tell THEM what drugs you'll take. They don't know you and who knows if the drugs really do you any good? You're not the troubled kid any more, you're an adult man, a champion, a God. Dump these idiots making money off you and come with me and Don King and we won't make you take those drugs! Today? America is the Mike Tyson of 1988. C-Block (28:00) GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCKSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Who is winning in the 2024 presidential race? Which candidate is in a better position to take the White House? Whoever's ahead, Kamala will always be Kamala, and her bizarre media mannerisms are hitting at all the worst times. With the betting markets predicting a trump win and Nate Silver projecting nearly a tie, this election continues to captivate the American voter and the Fellas. Stay tuned for some juicy variety; Maine is having its annual wife-carrying competition, and a giant pumpkin swallows a cop. Last but not least, Sen. Tom Cotton joins the progrum! Join the fight to win! Go to AmericansForProsperity.org/Volunteer TAKE ACTION! Tell Congress to guard your card and visit GaurdYourCard.com. Take the next step to improving your health, go to Lumen.me/RUTHLESS to get 15% off your Lumen.

For a month, a media echo chamber talked endlessly about Kamala's "vibes" and "momentum." Now, Nate Silver says Trump is back in the lead, and expert observer Mark Halperin says Democrats' own internal data suggests Kamala could be in the same spot Joe Biden was by mid-September. Kane of Citizen Free Press joins Charlie to react. Plus, Michael Shellenberger dissects Mark Zuckerberg's letter to Congress, and the latest proof of anti-American misconduct at the FBI and CIA. Become a member at members.charliekirk.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Comedian Gary Vider joins the show to discuss his podcast “#1 Dad” and his con-man father who inspired it. They also talk about how he got his start in stand-up and the comedians who helped him along in his early days. Next, Leah Knauer returns to read the news including stories about JLo filing for divorce from Ben Affleck, a colonoscopy doctor allegedly not hearing a patient screaming because he didn't have his hearing aid in, a new non-dating app that connects groups of people just for meals, and a survey that found Fresno to have the most chivalrous men in California. Finally, statistician and professional poker player Nate Silver makes his first ACS appearance to talk about his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” They also talk about his site FiveThreeEight getting bought by Disney and the benefits of leaving the mainstream media in favor of Substack. Then they discuss what Nate's model predicts for the upcoming presidential election and his relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried. For more with Gary Vider: ● Listen to his podcast: #1 Dad ● INSTAGRAM: @garyvider ● TWITTER: @garyvider ● WEBSITE: http://garyvider.com For more with Nate Silver: ● Buy his new book: “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” available everywhere. ● SUBSTACK: Silver Bulletin newsletter ● TWITTER: @natesilver538 Thank you for supporting our sponsors: ● http://SimpliSafe.com/Adam ● http://QualiaLife.com/Adam ● http://OReillyAuto.com/Adam ● Hims.com/ADAM

Megyn Kelly highlights some segments from The Megyn Kelly Show over the past week, including The EJs on Walz and Vance, Megyn on media gaslighting, Nate Silver on the state of the 2024 race, and The Fifth Column on some of the biggest media storylines of the week.

We have a guest-filled hour with two great conversations headed your way. First, Charles Barkley stops by to chat about Team USA Men's Basketball's gold medal, whether the dream team could beat modern-day South Sudan, his TNT contract, the future of Inside the NBA, and why the folks behind the scenes at TNT matter the most to him. Then, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is here to discuss his new book "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything" and to explain how he looks at the world as a giant sports bet, his own NBA gambling, why 2016 Presidential poll predictions were so off base, and fame for nerds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices