Podcast appearances and mentions of Nate Silver

Todos recordamos la magia de Maradona y la fiesta en las tribunas, pero casi nadie conoce la historia de Martín de la Torre, un funcionario mexicano que, impulsado por su pasión futbolística, logró lo impensable: organizar el Mundial de 1986 contra todo pronóstico. Diego Luna nos presenta ‘México 86', una historia de negociaciones secretas, audacia extrema y un hombre que jugó el partido de su vida fuera de la cancha, y que a partir de hoy se estrena en Netflix. En otros temas: El Congreso de Estados Unidos vota para frenar la guerra con Irán, en claro desafío a Trump / Estados Unidos escala la presión contra Cuba: sanciona a Díaz‑Canel y a su círculo más cercano / Las predicciones de Nate Silver sobre quién va a ganar el Mundial.

Larry talks to Tres Watson from Kentucky Politics Weekly about Nate Silver's comments on California's vote counting process and takes your calls on what IDs you can use to legally vote in Kentucky. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Tres Watson from Capitol Reins PR joins Larry to talk about Nate Silver's complaints on California's vote counting process and UK's effort in the NCAA baseball tournament. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Election Day is here—so why won’t California know the winners tonight? It will be weeks before winners are named. Even lefty pollster Nate Silver says CA election system should be “stigmatized”. Why? Jungle primary scrutiny: did the GOP field shape who advances? It’s now a 3 person race but only 2 will advance. Did Bianco set the stage for Democrats to push Hilton out? Dems stand by Platner despite nazi tattoo, sexting & misogyny controversies. He’s everything the Democrats claim they hate, and everything they accuse Republicans of being. How should the GOP message around this controversy? Former CBP Chief criticizes DHS leadership: what’s behind the dispute? Why did Bovino criticize Mullin and what was his RIDICULOUS response? But who else did Bovino criticize and what does it mean for deportations? With Special Guest, Jennifer Kelly, The Jennifer Kelly Show and GOP Strategist.Support Our Mission: https://www.paypal.com/donate/?hosted_button_id=ZMGRBFGDJKRS8See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fmLate in the game, Trump-loyal judges at the federal and state level joined his effort to rig the midterms. Democrats will thus enter this fall's race for House control at a systemic disadvantage. But for Trump, that's about the only good news. He's lost the war he launched against Iran, and keeps falling asleep on the job as an eerie hantavirus outbreak slowly spreads here and abroad. Yet as the public grows more outraged, Trump only seems truly engaged on one highly eccentric suite of issues.In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:* What the late break of Republican judicial activism means for the midterms, GOP efforts to steal the midterms, and the post-midterm race to gerrymander even more aggressively.* Now that the gerrymandering cycle is cooked for 2026, what more could Democrats do to pad their margins, so that biased maps don't cost them the House?* Is the hantavirus outbreak something worth treating seriously, or something worth beating Trump over the head with?Then, given the bleak political outlook for the GOP, isn't it weird that Trump's only able to sustain focus on building a palace ballroom, and various other monuments to himself? Will Republicans vote to spend a billion dollars on the ballroom? Would it be better (politically, or in schadenfreude terms) for Dems to divide Republicans, so that the ballroom never gets built, or for Republicans to do Trump's bidding, so that Democrats can tear down the ballroom in 2029? Would Democrats tear down the ballroom? And if they copped out on that, who would be to blame?All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.Further reading:* Brian argues the Democratic surrender in Virginia, after the adverse, partisan gerrymandering ruling, is a very bad omen for November. * Matt argues the hantavirus outbreak is a reminder that the government should be preparing for the next pandemic, rather than dismantling pandemic prevention programs.* Robert Kagan argues Iran has Trump in checkmate.* Nate Silver on the risk that Democrats will underreact to Republican gerrymandering next year, and leave seats on the table.* Brian in December 2024: The New Gilded Age Will Be Streamed

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit www.politix.fmLate in the game, Trump-loyal judges at the federal and state level joined his effort to rig the midterms. Democrats will thus enter this fall's race for House control at a systemic disadvantage. But for Trump, that's about the only good news. He's lost the war he launched against Iran, and keeps falling asleep on the job as an eerie hantavirus outbreak slowly spreads here and abroad. Yet as the public grows more outraged, Trump only seems truly engaged on one highly eccentric suite of issues.In this episode, Matt and Brian discuss:* What the late break of Republican judicial activism means for the midterms, GOP efforts to steal the midterms, and the post-midterm race to gerrymander even more aggressively.* Now that the gerrymandering cycle is cooked for 2026, what more could Democrats do to pad their margins, so that biased maps don't cost them the House?* Is the hantavirus outbreak something worth treating seriously, or something worth beating Trump over the head with?Then, given the bleak political outlook for the GOP, isn't it weird that Trump's only able to sustain focus on building a palace ballroom, and various other monuments to himself? Will Republicans vote to spend a billion dollars on the ballroom? Would it be better (politically, or in schadenfreude terms) for Dems to divide Republicans, so that the ballroom never gets built, or for Republicans to do Trump's bidding, so that Democrats can tear down the ballroom in 2029? Would Democrats tear down the ballroom? And if they copped out on that, who would be to blame?All that, plus the full Politix archive are available to paid subscribers—just upgrade your subscription and pipe full episodes directly to your favorite podcast app via your own private feed.Further reading:* Brian argues the Democratic surrender in Virginia, after the adverse, partisan gerrymandering ruling, is a very bad omen for November. * Matt argues the hantavirus outbreak is a reminder that the government should be preparing for the next pandemic, rather than dismantling pandemic prevention programs.* Robert Kagan argues Iran has Trump in checkmate.* Nate Silver on the risk that Democrats will underreact to Republican gerrymandering next year, and leave seats on the table.* Brian in December 2024: The New Gilded Age Will Be Streamed

Trump's latest “victory” may actually be a political trap. In this livestream, Matt Robison and Cliff Schecter break down the Supreme Court redistricting rulings, the growing GOP backlash problem, Trump's dangerous Xi meeting strategy, Bill Cassidy's political collapse, and why the 2026 election environment may be far worse for Republicans than the headlines suggest.PLUS:Why Democrats may still be favored to retake the HouseThe real impact of the Alabama & Virginia redistricting rulingsTrump's collapsing support among independentsWhy Republicans may be “dummy-mandering” themselvesGraham Platner vs. David FrenchBill Cassidy, RFK Jr., and the Republican loyalty trapTrump, Xi Jinping, Taiwan, tariffs, and China leverageICE expansion and Trump's long-term immigration strategyCould Trump actually attempt a third term?Subscribe to Worth Knowing on Substack:Worth Knowing SubstackSubscribe to Cliff Schecter & Blue Amp Media:Blue Amp Media SubstackSubscribe for weekly livestreams, Political Rehab, election analysis, Trump strategy breakdowns, Supreme Court coverage, independent political media, and deep-dive conversations on the future of American democracy.TIMESTAMPS00:00 Opening monologue — Did the 2026 election just change?02:15 Are media outlets overhyping Republican momentum?03:20 Nate Silver, Nate Cohn & the real House math04:00 Why voter suppression can backfire politically05:00 Cliff Schecter joins the livestream07:30 Why Republicans may be overreading redistricting wins09:00 Farm bankruptcies, tariffs & rural backlash10:00 Why special elections matter more than polling12:00 Trump's independent voter collapse15:00 Republicans panic over 2026 numbers16:00 21% of Trump voters say he should be impeached17:00 Why Republican gerrymandering may become a trap20:00 Quiet Republican fear behind the scenes25:00 Graham Platner vs David French26:00 Nazi tattoo controversy & Democratic “purity tests”31:00 Comparing Platner to Republican extremism34:00 Al Franken, Susan Collins & lesser-of-two-evils politics36:00 Could Trump actually run for a third term?41:00 Susan Collins' vulnerability in Maine44:00 Bill Cassidy's collapse and Trump loyalty politics47:00 Why Republicans cannot escape Trump49:00 Jeff Sessions, Elise Stefanik & the MAGA loyalty trap53:00 Trump meeting Xi Jinping — predictions54:00 Taiwan, tariffs & China leverage55:00 Lightning round: worst undercovered Trump story56:00 ICE expansion & permanent immigration crackdowns58:00 Blue Amp Media & independent political mediaKEY TOPICS / SEARCH TERMSTrump news today2026 election analysisHouse redistrictingSupreme Court voting rightsVoting Rights ActTrump Xi Jinping meetingTaiwan newsBill Cassidy primaryRFK Jr politicsSusan Collins 2026Graham Platner controversyDavid French New York TimesDemocratic strategy 2026Trump third termICE raidsMAGA politicsPolitical livestreamIndependent media politicsMatt RobisonCliff SchecterPolitical RehabWorth Knowing#Trump #2026Election #Politics #Redistricting #SupremeCourt #Democrats #Republicans #XiJinping #China #BillCassidy #SusanCollins #RFKJr #VotingRights #PoliticalNews #MattRobison #WorthKnowing

This week on The Necessary Conversation, Chad and Haley are joined by Mary Lou but Bob is sitting this one out while he deals with some health issue.

In this edition of Lemme Trend Bro, Jack and Miles discuss TACO Trump's genocidal threats, Nate Silver's list of top Twitter follows, Ye headlining Wireless Festival (until it got cancelled), and much more!See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Noam and Jen return, a day late but things do happen. Or maybe they don't, which is a running theme of our coverage of the Iran war. This time, maybe Trump is going to bomb all of the infrastructure if Iran doesn't open the Strait of Hormuz. Or not. Who can say really.    Speaking of dropping bombs, Nate Silver somehow ragebaited Hasan Piker into posting his follower stats on Twitter, where everyone noticed a suspiciously large number of unverified accounts follow him. Not the kind of information one releases about oneself but hey, Hasan has been under a lot of scrutiny lately.  In happy Iran news, the US rescued an Air Force officer whose plane was shot down deep in the Iranian mountains. Hooray us! Well, at least we're happy about it. I mean, Israel can't have all the insane movie plot missions.  For our WAWC, Noam recommends the very weird sounding game Crimson Desert, which somehow has both magic and robots. Jen gives a round of applause to the Winter 2025 season of anime that just wrapped up, and talks about how it's really nice that two vastly different shows are getting love from audiences.   

After President Trump took out Soleimani, you would think that his relatives wouldn't be allowed to spread anti-American hate in the United States. Turns out the State Department is just getting around to it. An F-15E was struck down over Iran, and American special forces went in to recover the missing pilots. Europe just doesn't understand why it matters. X has become a right wing echo chamber. At least, Nate Silver thinks so. Let's try to figure out his logic. GUEST: Josh Firestine Link to today's sources: https://www.louderwithcrowder.com/sources-april-6-2026 Let my sponsor American Financing help you regain control of your finances. Go to https://americanfinancing.net/crowder or call 800-974-6500. NMLS 182334, http://nmlsconsumeraccess.org. Share clips from the show & compete to get a mention on the show! Where to get clips: Telegram: http://t.me/LWCClips Submit link for tracking: https://forms.gle/HZwz7Q7C9hkHecxTA Foundation Daily is made up of premium ingredients to reduce inflammation and stress and promote clean energy and mental clarity. Subscribe now and receive 40% off for life. https://foundationdaily.com/ DOWNLOAD THE RUMBLE APP TODAY: https://rumble.com/our-apps Join Rumble Premium to watch this show every day! http://louderwithcrowder.com/Premium Get your favorite LWC gear: https://crowdershop.com/ Bite-Sized Content: https://rumble.com/c/CrowderBits Subscribe to my podcast: https://feeds.libsyn.com/576250/rss FOLLOW ME: Website: https://louderwithcrowder.com/ X: https://x.com/scrowder Instagram: http://www.instagram.com/louderwithcrowder Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/stevencrowderofficial Music by @Pogo

Relying on filler words like "um," "like," and "you know" is a universal habit that clutters our speech and betrays our nerves, but simply willing yourself to stop only makes the problem worse. Today on How To!, Mike Pesca is joined by renowned data journalist and author Nate Silver, who bravely steps up as the guinea pig to have his own fast-talking, filler-heavy conversational style diagnosed in real-time. Then, communications coach Michael Chad Hoeppner, author of Don't Say Um, steps in to break down the physical mechanics of communication—treating speaking as an athletic act—and offers actionable, kinesthetic strategies like "catching the ball" and "walking the fingers" to help anyone slow down, pause, and speak with confident precision. Executive Producer Corey Wara Edited by Geoff Craig Booking by Ben Astaire Do you have a burning question or a problem you need help with? Email us at howto@mikepesca.com and we will consider your topic for the show. For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To receive ad-free content, become a Pesca Plus subscriber at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@pescagist⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠ad-sales@libsyn.com⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/howto

Relying on filler words like "um," "like," and "you know" is a universal habit that clutters our speech and betrays our nerves, but simply willing yourself to stop only makes the problem worse. Today on How To!, Mike Pesca is joined by renowned data journalist and author Nate Silver, who bravely steps up as the guinea pig to have his own fast-talking, filler-heavy conversational style diagnosed in real-time. Then, communications coach Michael Chad Hoeppner, author of Don't Say Um, steps in to break down the physical mechanics of communication—treating speaking as an athletic act—and offers actionable, kinesthetic strategies like "catching the ball" and "walking the fingers" to help anyone slow down, pause, and speak with confident precision. Executive Producer Corey Wara Edited by Geoff Craig Booking by Ben Astaire Do you have a burning question or a problem you need help with? Email us at howto@mikepesca.com and we will consider your topic for the show. For full Pesca content and updates, check out our website at https://www.mikepesca.com/⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ To receive ad-free content, become a Pesca Plus subscriber at ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribe.mikepesca.com/ For Mike's daily takes on Substack, subscribe to The Gist List https://mikepesca.substack.com/ Follow us on Social Media:⁠⁠⁠⁠ Instagram https://www.instagram.com/pescagist/ X https://x.com/pescami YouTube https://www.youtube.com/@pescagist⁠⁠⁠⁠ TikTok https://www.tiktok.com/@pescagist To advertise on the show, contact ⁠⁠⁠⁠ad-sales@libsyn.com⁠⁠⁠⁠ or visit ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://advertising.libsyn.com/howto

I've reached a point where the marketplace of ideas feels broken. The conversation around the Iran war, especially the discussion about oil prices and the Strait of Hormuz, has been less about understanding events and more about reacting to every twitch in the market.This realization hit me last weekend when I watched otherwise smart commentators react breathlessly to oil futures spiking. Writers like Nate Silver and Derek Thompson framed the surge in prices as a potentially catastrophic moment for the Trump administration, a Rubicon that could permanently damage the president's economic credibility.That logic makes sense in theory. Gas prices are one of the most politically sensitive indicators in American life. If they rise sharply and stay elevated, the economic narrative can turn quickly against any administration. But what bothered me wasn't the conclusion. It was how little anyone seemed to know about the mechanics behind the story.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.The Strait of Hormuz, through which a massive share of the world's oil flows, became the center of speculation. Could Iran shut it down? Had it ever been fully closed before? What would the United States do if shipping lanes were mined?These are complex questions. Yet much of the discussion reduced them to the most basic possible analysis: oil prices go up, oil prices go down.The Problem With Market Narratives and the Age of Info SlopOver the course of a single night, I found myself obsessively researching the issue. I dug into the Iran–Iraq tanker wars of the 1980s, when both countries targeted shipping in the Persian Gulf. I looked at how mines were deployed in the Strait of Hormuz and how the United States eventually intervened to escort tankers and protect trade routes.The historical lesson was clear. Even during the worst periods of that conflict, the strait never truly closed. Oil shipments slowed and risks increased, but global energy markets adapted.By Monday morning, the markets themselves seemed to confirm the lesson. Oil prices surged, then dropped back below their previous levels. The panic narrative collapsed almost as quickly as it appeared.What replaced it was not clarity but confusion. Rumors circulated that Iran was mining the strait. Other reports suggested ships were still passing through after turning off their transponders. At one point, a claim that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker through the strait briefly moved markets before the White House denied it.This constant churn of speculation reveals a deeper problem: very few people actually know what is happening.In theory, the modern information environment should make us better informed. Instead, it often produces the opposite result. Analysts extrapolate sweeping conclusions from tiny fragments of data, while social media amplifies every rumor until it looks like evidence.The result is what I can only describe as “info slop.” Bits of partially verified information get passed along, combined, and reinterpreted until the original facts are almost impossible to distinguish from the speculation built around them.In a normal news cycle, that dynamic is frustrating. But in a war, it is dangerous.The Iran conflict carries enormous stakes. A prolonged fight could reshape the Middle East, disrupt global energy markets, or even trigger a wider geopolitical confrontation. Yet the public conversation about the war often resembles message-board debates rather than serious analysis.We are arguing over rumors about oil shipments and naval escorts while the broader strategic picture remains murky.Part of the problem is structural. During wartime, the actors with the most reliable information have strong incentives not to share it. Governments conceal details to protect military operations. Adversaries spread misinformation to manipulate perceptions.Even seemingly straightforward facts become difficult to confirm. Was a school struck by a missile because of a U.S. attack, an Iranian malfunction, or something else entirely? Did Iran mine shipping lanes, or were markets reacting to a rumor?In many cases, the honest answer is simply that we do not know.And yet the conversation continues as if every piece of incomplete information carries definitive meaning.Stepping Back From the NoiseFor me, the lesson is simple. If the discourse is making you feel more confident about events you barely understand, it may not actually be informing you. It may simply be feeding the human instinct to fill gaps in knowledge with speculation.The war with Iran could become one of the defining geopolitical events of this era. It could destabilize a region, reshape energy markets, or even trigger regime change inside Iran itself.But right now, much of what passes for analysis is just noise layered on top of uncertainty. The healthiest response might be the hardest one: consume less of it. Read less news that pretends to provide clarity where none exists.We don't know what's happening yet. And pretending otherwise doesn't make us smarter.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:02:18 - Thomas Massie00:06:24 - Iran Discourse00:16:59 - Kirk Bado on Iran00:32:36 - Update00:33:36 - Oil00:34:51 - SAVE America Act00:40:41 - AI Hiring00:42:49 - Kirk Bado on Iran, con't00:54:38 - Kirk Bado on Texas01:13:09 - Steelers Talk01:22:16 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

3pm: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs // Rantz: KING 5 rushes to defend ‘Spokane mom,’ ignores illegal immigrant’s five assault convictions // This Day in History: Tara Lipinski becomes youngest Olympic figure skating gold medalist (1998) // The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver

6pm: Supreme Court Strikes Down Trump’s Sweeping Tariffs // Rantz: KING 5 rushes to defend ‘Spokane mom,’ ignores illegal immigrant’s five assault convictions // This Day in History: Tara Lipinski becomes youngest Olympic figure skating gold medalist (1998) // The 2028 Democratic Presidential Contenders, Ranked by Nate Silver

Shownotes are AI slop as usual. It's a week late cause nobody bothered to tell me it was recorded. Apologies for lack of freshness. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------Jack the Insider and Hong Kong Jack are back for Episode 144, recorded on 12 February. It's Liberal Party leadership spill eve and the boys break down whether Angus Taylor has the numbers to end Susan Ley's tenure — and what sort of baggage he'll carry into the job. From there: a landmark High Court ruling on the Catholic Church's duty of care for survivors of clergy abuse; the protests surrounding Israeli President Isaac Herzog's visit to Australia; the widening Epstein-Mandelson catastrophe engulfing Keir Starmer; the slow collapse of the Washington Post; Japan's election result and its implications for China; and a packed sports segment covering the T20 World Cup, AFL State of Origin, the Rugby World Cup opener, and the Winter Olympics.Show Notes & Timestamps

Part 1: UK-based political bettors William Kedjanyi, Paul Krishnamurty, and Pip Moss debate how long  Starmer can last as prime minister. Part 2: Chougule announces Polymarket sponsorship of DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces UK segment 0:39: Polymarket markets on UK politics 1:35: Intro ends 3:36: UK segment begins 6:02: What has gone wrong for Starmer? 11:10: Starmer's communication problem 11:31: Perceptions of Starmer as a liar 11:41: Starmer is hated 17:40: Free speech 24:36: Market odds on Starmer's departure 25:23: Policy challenges 26:46: Housing 28:10: Local elections 32:50: Policy decisions 37:12: Immigration 39:30: Process After May Elections 42:14: May election odds 52:27: How Labour would remove Starmer 54:29: Blair-Brown rivalry 56:06: Trade unions 56:26: Soft left faction 1:05:52: Starmer U-turns 1:07:51: Challengers to Starmers 1:09:15: Reaction to Labour losses in May elections 1:12:30: UK segment ends 1:12:45: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Bet on UK politics at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. The next DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets Meetup will be on Thursday, January 29 from 6:00 PM - 9:00 PM at The Flying Mexican in Washington DC. ​ All 2026 DC meetups are sponsored by Polymarket! ​ Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, allowing you to stay informed on future events across various topics. Polymarket's markets reflect accurate, unbiased, and real-time probabilities for the events that matter most to you. Markets seek truth. Learn more at Polymarket.com. ​ Thanks to Polymarket, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. ​ Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Luma event page are welcomed! https://luma.com/dld19288?tk=XIracE ​ Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Polymarket, Manifold, PredictIt, and Kalshi, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. ​ This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork ​ Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Episode Notes Resurrection: The merits of dinner parties. Ughhh it's Bareil again. Or a Mirror Universe Bareil, except not fun or horny. Jude rants about orbs again. Noooo Kira don't do it. Oh good, Mirror Kira. Hopefully there's an actual HR rep for this Bajoran-Starfleet joint op, and that it's not Odo. Justen hates that this is a Mirror Universe episode without the Mirror Universe. Statistical Probabilities: Yes, this is a metaphor for autism. Also the politics of augmentation. Damar gets a promotion. "Uncomplicated" might not be a compliment. Jack suggests doing a treason. There are problems with this episode but it's nice to see Bashir unmask a bit. Jack may be Nate Silver. BabSpace9 is a production of the Okay, So network. Connect with the show at @babylonpod.page Help us keep the lights on via our Patreon! Justen can be found at @justen.babylonpod.page Ana can be found at @ana.babylonpod.page, and also made our show art. Both Ana and Justen can also be found on The Compleat Discography, a Discworld re-read podcast. Jude Vais can be found at @jude.athrabeth.com. His other work can be found at Athrabeth - a Tolkien Podcast and at Garbage of the Five Rings. Clips from the original show remain copyrighted by Paramount Entertainment and are used under the Fair Use doctrine. Music attribution: Original reworking of the Deep Space 9 theme by audioquinn, who stresses that this particular war crime is not their fault. This show is edited and produced by Aaron Olson, who can be found at @aaron.compleatdiscography.page Find out more at http://babylonpod.page

The U.S. Supreme Court has once again declined to take up challenges to a federal law that protects subsistence hunting and fishing in Alaska. The court rejected the state of Alaska's petition to review a federal lawsuit against the state over salmon management on the Kuskokwim River in Southwest Alaska. KNBA's Rhonda McBride has reaction from Native leaders. The state had argued the federal government was misinterpreting a law Congress passed to protect a rural priority for subsistence. Last year, after the 9th Circuit Court of appeals sided with federal fishery managers, the state asked the court to take up the case, but in a docket on Monday, the court denied the state's petition. The Alaska Federation of Natives hailed the decision. Its president, Ben Mallott, says decades of hard-won protections under the landmark Katie John lawsuits were also on the line. “I feel relieved that we don't have to spend our limited resources and efforts, fighting for what we know is right, hopefully our final time protecting what Katie John fought for.” John was an Ahtna Athabascan elder who fought for the right to fish on rivers that flow through federal lands. This is the third time the court has decided to let the Katie John litigation stand untouched. The federal government's Kuskokwim lawsuit, which the court has left intact, now affirms similar protections. Michelle Anderson knew the late Katie John when she was little girl. Today, she is president of the Ahtna Native Coporation. She says the Athabascan elder taught her people well to stand up for what's right. “During our history here is that you can’t sit back and rest on your laurels and you must always be vigilant and looking out for what’s coming next. No. I don’t think anyone is jubilant and celebrating and thinking this is it. We’re just waiting for the next time.” Alaska Fish and Game Commissioner Doug Vincent-Lang said in a statement that the state will respect the decision of the court to not address the legal issues regarding fish and game management authorities over navigable waters belonging to the state of Alaska, but the commissioner also said the state will continue to work with the Secretaries of Interior and Agriculture to ensure state rights are safeguarded. Mary Peltola, left, applaudes during a speech by former First Lady Jill Biden in Bethel, Alaska. Democrat Mary Peltola (Yup’ik), the first Alaska Native person elected to Congress, announced Monday that she's running for U.S. Senate, taking on incumbent U.S. Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK). Alaska Public Media Washington correspondent Liz Ruskin reports interest in whether Peltola would run has been high for months. Her announcement Monday came with a video portraying her salmon-centered family life on the Kuskokwim River. She repeats her previous campaign slogan: “Fish, family, freedom.” She also hearkens back to Alaska senators who served in less partisan times. “(Former U.S. Sen.) Ted Stevens (R-AK) often said, ‘To hell with politics. Put Alaska first.’ It's about time Alaskans teach the rest of the country what Alaska first and, really, America first looks like.” Nationally, Democrats believe that with Peltola on the ballot, Alaska presents one of their best hopes of flipping a seat. Political analyst and statistician Nate Silver said in a social media post last week that Democrats still have an uphill battle to win back the Senate majority, but that Peltola's candidacy moves their chances in Alaska from a long-shot to plausible. Sen. Sullivan has already raised $6 million this election cycle. He has President Donald Trump's endorsement and maintains a strong alignment with Trump. But, in what Democrats took to be a sign that he's feeling the political heat, Sullivan last month unexpectedly voted to extend health insurance subsidies. He's also touting a new bill that targets one of Peltola's primary issues: Bycatch, or the accidental catch of salmon by the pollock fleet. Within minutes of Peltola’s announcement, the National Republican Senatorial Committee and other groups supporting Sullivan issued a string of press releases, previewing the campaign issues they plan to use against Peltola. They link her to President Joe Biden and national figures on the left, as well as transgender rights and policies that restrict drilling on federal land in Alaska. Some Republican messages jabbed at her effectiveness in Congress, and at her high rate of missed House votes. Peltola tried to head off that last point. “D.C. people were shocked that I prioritized going back to Alaska in July to help put up fish for our family, but Alaskans understand.” For U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Peltola's candidacy presents a dilemma. They're both moderates, and Murkowski endorsed Peltola in the past, despite their party differences. Sen. Murkowski declined to pick a side when a reporter asked before Christmas, but Thursday, she said she'd made a decision: she is endorsing her Republican colleague. “We’ve had a pretty solid team here in the Senate for the past 12 years, so we want to figure out how we’re going to keep in the majority. And Dan delivers that.” Both sides are expected to pour tens of millions of dollars into the race. Sullivan's last race in 2020 was one of the most expensive elections in state history, with spending by the campaigns and outside groups totaling more than $57 million. Sullivan was outspent, but beat independent candidate Al Gross by a substantial margin. Peltola lost her House seat to U.S. Rep. Nick Begich (R-AK). After ranked ballots were tallied in 2024, she had almost 49% of the vote to his 51%. The rankings had little impact on the final result in that race. Before voters' second- and third- choices were counted, Begich's lead was slightly smaller. Sullivan and Peltola will face off first in a nonpartisan primary in August. The top four candidates will advance to a ranked-choice ballot in November. Get National Native News delivered to your inbox daily. Sign up for our daily newsletter today. Download our NV1 Android or iOs App for breaking news alerts. Check out the latest episode of Native America Calling Tuesday, January 13, 2026 – String of new affordable housing options offer hope for struggling urban Native Americans

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thecarousel.substack.comGoonborging the Singularity with Ancient Problemz, author of the cool piece It's Not Feminization, It's Androgyny on how Elite Human Capital is the unifying theme of recent complaints from writers Jacob Savage, Helen Andrews, and Nate Silver. First 45 mins free!The Carousel is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, con…

Part I: Akhi Pillalamarri (@AkhiPill) and Pratik Chougule (@pjchougule) explains why India and Pakistan won't resort to nuclear weapons.  Part II: David Glidden (@dglid) interviews Amb. Thomas Miller, former chair of the board of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, a corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states and the District of Columbia.  Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces segment with Pillalamarri 1:07: Chougule introduces Glidden interview with Miller 1:46: Parallels between lotteries and prediction markets 2:47: Intro ends 4:48: Pillalamarri segment begins 5:12: Kylasa (@aenews) side bet with Mehndiratta (@tenad0me)  5:51: Odds on nuclear war 6:01: Anti-nuclear norms 6:55: Why India and Pakistan haven't used nukes 7:34: Terrorism vs. nukes 8:46: India's no first use doctrine   10:05: Variance 10:18: Anthropic effects 10:52: Nuclear taboos 10:58: Why Pakistan won't transfer nukes 11:36: Polymarket market on nuclear detonation 11:45: Segment ends 12:00: Interview with Miller begins 12:17: Miller's background 12:46: Rumsfeld 14:27: Chougule 14:44: Washingtonian profile of Chougule 15:06: Intralot 15:26: Lotteries offering sports betting 15:58: Prediction markets 16:46: Business of prediction markets 17:02: Amazon 18:36: How Miller got into lottery business 19:43: Lottery expansion into sports betting 20:46: Women 21:19: Lottery regulation 21:44: How lotteries gained acceptance 24:10: Demographic of prediction market users 25:02: Forecasting as an ambassador   26:07: Black swan events 26:20: History 26:30: Intelligence before Russian invasion of Ukraine 28:59: Data in diplomacy 29:47: Iraq War 31:23: AI 32:04: Prediction markets for diplomacy 37:09: Using prediction markets to anticipate bad events 37:36: Prediction markets for resource allocation decisions 37:52: Medical research 39:43: Segment ends 39:57: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetups   Trade on markets related to nuclear weapons and war at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market.     Join us for the final DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup on Wednesday, December 17 from 6-9pm at the Flying Mexican on Capitol Hill, close to the Eastern Market metro station (blue/orange lines), NOT our usual Rocklands BBQ location in Arlington. Be sure to show up on the correct side of the river this month!     Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Thanks to our sponsor, food and drinks will be provided to all attendees of this month's meetup. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed!   Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists.   This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork   Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

This episode is a re-air of one of our most popular conversations from this year, featuring insights worth revisiting. Thank you for being part of the Data Stack community. Stay up to date with the latest episodes at datastackshow.com.This week on The Data Stack Show, John and Matt dive into the latest trends in AI, discussing the evolution of GPT models, the role of tools in reducing hallucinations, and the ongoing debate between data warehouses and agent-based approaches. They also explore the complexities of risk-taking in data teams, drawing lessons from Nate Silver's book on risk and sharing real-world analogies from cybersecurity, football, and political campaigns. Key takeaways include the importance of balancing innovation with practical risk management, the need for clear recommendations from data professionals, the value of reading fiction to understand human behavior in data, and so much more.Highlights from this week's conversation include:Initial Impressions of GPT-5 (1:41)AI Hallucinations and the Open-Source GPT Model (4:06)Tools and Determinism in AI Agents (6:00)Risks of Tool Reliance in AI (8:05)The Next Big Data Fight: Warehouses vs. Agents (10:21)Real-Time Data Processing Limitations (12:56)Risk in Data and AI: Book Recommendation (17:08)Measurable vs. Perceived Risk in Business (20:10)Security Trade-Offs and Organizational Impact (22:31)The Quest for Certainty and Wicked Learning Environments (27:37)Poker, Process, and Data Team Longevity (29:11)Support Roles and Limits of Data Teams (32:56)Final Thoughts and Takeaways (34:20)The Data Stack Show is a weekly podcast powered by RudderStack, customer data infrastructure that enables you to deliver real-time customer event data everywhere it's needed to power smarter decisions and better customer experiences. Each week, we'll talk to data engineers, analysts, and data scientists about their experience around building and maintaining data infrastructure, delivering data and data products, and driving better outcomes across their businesses with data.RudderStack helps businesses make the most out of their customer data while ensuring data privacy and security. To learn more about RudderStack visit rudderstack.com. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Akhi Pillalamarri (@akhipill) assesses whether and when India will attack Pakistan. Timestamps 0:00: Chougule introduces episode 0:58: DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup 2:25: Intro ends 4:25: Interview begins 4:46: Pillalamarri's background 5:53: Pillalamarri's experience with prediction markets 6:33: Polymarket lines on Indian strike on Pakistan 7:10: Background on India-Pakistan conflict 8:11: Why do India and Pakistan go to war? 9:34: Pakistan's strategy 11:47: Spike in Polymarket market 12:13: Nuclear weapons 12:57: Terrorist attack in India 18:10: Indian military options 19:50: Indian hardliners 20:51: Pakistan's hand 25:18: China 26:38: Saudi Arabia 27:50: Munir 28:14: Pakistani military 29:06: India's point of view 30:01: Hardline Indian policy 32:50: Timing of an Indian strike 35:21: Market rules on "strike" 36:33: No Indian ground forces 37:06: Indian strike in 2027 Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics.  Follow SSG on Twitter @ssgamblers Bet on the India-Pakistan conflict at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/india-strike-on-pakistan-by?tid=1764041734299 The next DC Forecasting and Prediction Markets Meetup is on Tuesday, Nov 25 from 6-9pm at Rocklands Barbeque and Grilling Company. This month's speaker is John Bennett. John was the co-organizer of the recent Manifest x DC conference that took place earlier this month and will be leading a discussion about what worked well, what didn't, and what we could do to scale next time.  A BBQ buffet and fountain drinks will be provided free of charge to this month's attendees. Alcoholic beverages will be available for purchase. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/VoLn8aAh4pabxrxczwiz Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true  Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv  

SEASON 4 EPISODE 35: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-BLOCK (2:30) SPECIAL COMMENT: Trump is now a lame duck. A lame Donald. A lame duck Donald. A lame Donald Duck. I like it. It’s not just that MAGA stood up to him and a GOP/Democratic coalition beat him 427 to 1 on Epstein. It's that that was something even most of the Washington political media industrial complex can understand, can process, can WRITE using the cliches in which they trafficked until Trump and his unprecedented madness came along. This looked all too familiar and they jumped on it with both feet and the same cliché: LAME DUCK. Fortune used it. NBC. Semafor. The National Review. Nate Silver's site asked "Is Trump A Lame Duck?" CNN's went further: "Is Trump A Lame Duck NOW?" It's so bad there was a Politico Lame Duck Listicle! "Seven signs Trump is losing his groove." And then the final nail: “It’s Official: Donald Trump is a lame duck by President”by Chris Cillizza, part of his weekly conversation with Chuck Todd. It's never over til it's over, Yogi, but it's over. B-BLOCK (25:00) SPECIAL COMMENT: I'm the character in The (Latest) Olivia Nuzzi story who gets shot in the first scene, but I still know more about her than almost any outsider and there is a lot to correct on her epically bad book excerpt in Vanity Fair, and the riposte by the more recent ex, Ryan Lizza, who was apparently told by Olivia that I was stalking her at the same time as Olivia was telling me there was a guy in Washington stalking her, named Ryan Lizza. The Nuzzi News is a Doozy and we all lose. This was to be a comeback; now she'll need an entirely new comeback to come back from her come back. And how does Vanity Fair keep her employed after the Mark Sanford accusation made her explanation of her RFK Jr lies into a separate lie? C-BLOCK (1:00:00) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Trump accuses himself of rigging the 2020 census. It was in July, but Bill O'Reilly insisted that Jeffrey Epstein was prosecuted by Biden and Garland, and refused to correct himself even after he was reminded Epstein died during Trump's first presidency. And Bill Maher says he's giving up touring because people who are half as funny are selling twice as many tickets. Who does he mean? The New York Jets? See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What do you get when a data scientist with a knack for sports betting and political forecasting returns to the pod? A masterclass in what polling can and can't do, how bad assumptions skew our democracy, and why Carl Allen thinks we need to stop blaming the camera for the race result. In this fascinating, far-ranging convo, Corey and Carl Allen (author of The Polls Weren't Wrong) break down why political polling is misunderstood, how data intersects with integrity, and where we go from here in the 2026 election cycle. They also take a surprising detour into MLB match-fixing, sports betting strategies, and how the “edge of the bell curve” reveals more than most talking heads on TV.

 Polling analyst Nate Silver has warned that recent surveys bring "bad results" for President Donald Trump, whose approval rating stands at a net -8.4, according to the latest aggregated data. Advertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin knows a little bit about risk and prediction.  He joins Dunc'd On to discuss every aspect of this evolving issue.  How much should NBA fans care about this scandal? How much does he care as an NBA fan and bettor? Should we be concerned about the overall integrity of NBA games?  Why would multi-millionaires like Terry Rozier or Chauncey Billups engage in the alleged behavior?  Plus, how should the NBA fix these problems? Join Dunc'd On Prime! It's the only place to get every episode with Nate & Danny, plus every pod with John Hollinger & Nate as well!Use code PRESEASON25 for 35% off an annual subscription!Subscribe on YouTube to see our hilarious faces and, more importantly, see watch this free pod twice a week.Or, sign up for our FREE mailing list to get Dan Feldman's Daily Duncs with all the major topics around the league twice a week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're just about a week out from Election Day, and I have to say, this is what I live for. These are the kind of stories that really scratch the itch for anybody who loves the game of politics as much as I do. We've got real contests, real dollars behind them, and actual electoral stakes. Yes, I know it's not a presidential year, but this is the sandbox where some serious groundwork gets laid. And for as much as I hate the off-off-year calendar, I love election season more than anything. Here's my breakdown of where I think the chips are going to fall in November.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Starting in California, we've got Prop 50. Gavin Newsom has staked a big chunk of political capital on this one. It's pitched as a pushback on Republican redistricting, with the messaging ultimately landing on “protecting America from Trump.” What started off messy got refined quickly, and with Newsom's team sticking the landing, I see a 10 to 15 point win. McCarthy was supposed to pour in $100 million to fight it, but as of now, the actual spending is suspiciously light. All that adds up to a clear Democratic win.Now onto Virginia: Winsome Earl Sears vs. Abigail Spanberger. I'm heading up to D.C. this weekend, and originally thought I'd be bouncing around Virginia to catch campaign stops. But Sears? She's nowhere to be found. Spanberger, while not the most electrifying candidate, has managed to avoid major blunders post-Jay Jones scandal. The polling tells a consistent story; Spanberger holding a lead that's grown since the scandal broke. I'm calling it Spanberger by eight. Could be tighter, but it's hard to see Sears overcoming the fundamentals working against her.As for Jay Jones, man, what a collapse. DUI, community service for his own super PAC, and leaked texts about shooting a rival politician? That's how you lose an election. Miyares hasn't trailed since that story broke. Nate Silver might be holding out hope, pointing to early voting and ticket-splitting, but my money's on Miyares by one. A close one, but still a loss for Jones. This scandal made a difference, period.New Yorkers better get ready for Mayor Zohran Mamdani. He hasn't been behind at all in public polling, all while Cuomo is clawing for relevance. Meanwhile, Curtis Sliwa isn't pulling enough Republican support to matter to anyone but Cuomo. The energy just isn't there for a last-minute surprise. Mamdani by 13.And then there's New Jersey. The Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Ciattarelli race is the sleeper of the night. Sherrill has led for most of the race, but recent polling has things tightening. Trafalgar and Coefficient both show her up by one. Republicans are feeling bullish, and if this ends within three points, they'll have reason to. That would mean New Jersey, at minimum, becomes a fringe battleground in 2028. Not quite Arizona-level swing, but enough to force Democrats to spend real money defending it. I'm predicting Sherrill wins — but just barely.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:32 - Election Predictions00:23:08 - Update00:24:53 - Trade Deals00:30:58 - Shutdown00:38:10 - Israel00:44:36 - Interview with Austin Padgett01:38:03 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A hard-hitting episode unpacking the fallout from a late-night controversy — from Jimmy Kimmel's suspended show to affiliate preemptions, Nate Silver's pushback, and the larger fight over free speech and media bias. We dissect whether the jokes were callous or calculated, why mainstream anchors missed the mark, and how censorship claims, platform bans, and political double-standards are fueling anger on both sides. Raw, unapologetic, and unfiltered — this is media criticism through the eyes of everyday Americans who expect basic decency, not political scorekeeping.

The President can't pronounce "acetaminophen." No. Really. Hilarity ensued. Whalehead Deadbear Brainworm-Lamprey is still laughing . . . and laughing like the psychopath he is at all the women he's going to hurt. He likes hurting women. Nate Silver doesn't give a damn about people losing healthcare. He says Dems need to talk about import duties, which no MAGAT understands . . . or ever will. 

Nate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword. In today's conversation, we discuss… Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing, Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making, The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders, How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects, Nate's hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term. Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates,  why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI for the next decade, why more athletes haven't come out as gay, redesigning the NBA, what mentors he needs now, the cultural and psychological peculiarities of Bay area intellectual communities, why Canada can't win a Stanley Cup, the politics of immigration in Europe and America, what he'll work on next, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded July 23rd, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by donating today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.

On the Monday July 21, 2025 edition of The Armstrong & Getty One More Thing Podcast... Joe has a Nate Silver article stuck in his craw... A NYT columnist details his use of a pet psychic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Before she decided to become a poker pro, Maria Konnikova didn't know how many cards are in a deck. But she did have a Ph.D. in psychology, a brilliant coach, and a burning desire to know whether life is driven more by skill or chance. She found some answers in poker — and she's willing to tell us everything she learned. SOURCES:Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff. RESOURCES:“Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test,” by Patrick Ring, Levent Neyse, Tamas David-Barett, and Ulrich Schmidt (Frontiers in Psychology, 2016).“The headwinds/tailwinds Asymmetry: An Availability Bias in Assessments of Barriers and Blessings,” by Shai Davidai and Thomas Gilovich (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).“The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments,” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer (Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2015)."The Limits of Self-Control: Self-Control, Illusory Control, and Risky Financial Decision Making,” by Maria Konnikova (Columbia University, 2013).“Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement” by J.B. Rotter (Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 1966). EXTRAS:The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win, by Maria Konnikova.Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, by Maria Konnikova.The Confidence Game, by Maria Konnikova.Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern."This Year's World Series Of Poker Is Different," by Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (2025).

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- Following a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-TX) took questions from the press about passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate. 6:30pm- While speaking with economist Oren Cass during a black-tie event in Washington DC, Vice President JD Vance joked that being referred to as an “intellectual” is insulting! 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 6:50pm- Daniel Turner—Founder and Executive Director of Power the Future—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to quickly recap his experience testifying before the House Oversight Committee earlier today where Democrat Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX) openly threatened him!

The Rich Zeoli Show- Opening Monologue (06/03/2025): On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. And in a new article posted to his Substack, Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? He concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Senators Ted Cruz and Cory Booker got into an argument over the Biden Administrations refusal to comply with Supreme Court rulings. The debate ended with Cruz hilariously referring to Booker as “Spartacus.” 6:30pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Show (06/03/2025): 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden. 4:05pm- Anna Kelly—White House Deputy Press Secretary—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. She reacts to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) inaccurate rant against the Republican bill where he baselessly claimed it would end “American energy dominance.” Many on the left continue to meltdown over every Trump-endorsed plan/policy. But during a recent interview, even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon advocated on behalf of the One Big Beautiful Bill—calling it essential for small business and strong economic growth. 4:30pm- Rich steals Justin's headset, Matt gets yelled at (as per usual), and Rich—with some help from the audience—relives some of his greatest injuries, including the time he was stung in the eye by a jellyfish! 4:45pm- In a series of articles published last week, The New York Times examined the Democrat Party's continued struggles appealing to the American electorate. Shane Goldmacher writes that Democrats “are still searching for the path forward”—noting that the party spent $20 million studying their “erosion” of support with “young men” specifically. In another article, Goldmacher—alongside June Kim and Christine Zhang—evaluate “how Donald Trump has remade America's political landscape.” They document that 435 counties across the country became more “Democratic” from 2012 and 2024—however, 2,678 counties became more “Republican.” Further complicating matters is the 2030 census which is expected to cause comfortably blue states to lose electoral votes as citizens move to red states. You can read the articles here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/us/politics/democratic-party-voters.html. And here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/25/us/politics/trump-politics-democrats.html. 5:00pm- Lenore Skenazy—Contributing Editor for Reason, Founder of the Free-Range Kids Movement, and President of Let Grow—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss her latest article, “Mom Arrested, Facing 5 Years in Prison for Leaving 8- and 10-Year-Old Boys at Home.” David DeLugas—Attorney & Executive Director Member of the Board Founder of Parents USA—is representing the Georgia mom and offers a legal update. You can learn more about the story here: https://reason.com/2025/05/29/mom-arrested-facing-5-years-in-prison-for-leaving-8-and-10-year-old-boys-at-home/. And here: https://www.pledge.to/ParentsUSA-Kids-alone-Mom-arrested. 5:25pm- During a conversation on Matt Taibbi's podcast, novelist Walter Kirn revealed that George Orwell's “1984” now comes with a trigger warning! 5:40pm- Jimmy Failla—Host of “Fox News Saturday with Jimmy Failla” & “Fox Across America”—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss their frequent appearances together on Fox News. Failla will be performing at SoulJoel's in Montgomery County, PA on August 9th. You can find information about tickets here: https://radio. ...

Shedeur Sanders fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, and ESPN is struggling to handle it. Many people on the internet believe that Shedeur's drop in the draft was due to racism, especially since Cam Ward was the number-one overall pick. This situation doesn't make sense to them. There's widespread outrage over Shedeur being subjected to a prank call, even though prank calls happen to players all the time and usually go unreported. Mel Kiper has embarrassed himself by strongly supporting the Sanders family during this situation, similar to how Nate Silver has handled other controversial topics. ESPN's coverage is becoming a joke, and it's time for the race-baiting to end. Later in the show, Steve Kim joins to discuss Tupac Shedeur. Skap Attack and Whitlock react to the L.A. Lakers being down 3-1 in their playoff series against the Timberwolves. ​​Today's Sponsors: Relief Factor With Relief Factor, you'll feel better every day, and you'll live better every day. Get their 3-Week QuickStart for only $19.95 – that's less than a dollar a day. Call 1-800-4-Relief Or Visit https://ReliefFactor.com  Home Title Lock Go to https://hometitlelock.com/fearless and use promo code FEARLESS to get a FREE title history report so you can find out if you're already a victim AND 14 days of protection for FREE! And make sure to check out the Million Dollar TripleLock protection details when you get there! Exclusions apply. For details, visit https://hometitlelock.com/warranty BlueChew Enhance your sexual experiences with BlueChew, the first brand to offer chewable tablets for better sex. Get your first month FREE — just cover the $5 shipping fee — by using the promo code FEARLESS at https://BlueChew.com. Fearless Army Roll Call 3.0 Roll Call 3.0 continues the mission of men encouraging each other to pursue holiness and the execution of The Great Commission (Matthew 28: 19-20) by seeking alliance and fellowship with men who share our faith, values and commitment to obey our Lord and Savior. Join hundreds of like-minded men in Nashville on May 2nd-3rd for this important conference. Lunch will be included. Tickets are available right now at https://www.fearlessrollcall.com. SHOW OUTLINE 00:00 Intro We want to hear from the Fearless Army!! Join the conversation in the show chat, leave a comment or email Jason at FearlessBlazeShow@gmail.com Want more Fearless content? Subscribe to Jason Whitlock Harmony for a biblical perspective on everyday issues at https://www.youtube.com/@JasonWhitlockHarmony Get 10% off Blaze swag by using code Fearless10 at https://shop.blazemedia.com/fearless Make yourself an official member of the “Fearless Army!” Support Conservative Voices! Subscribe to BlazeTV at https://get.blazetv.com/FEARLESS and get $20 off your yearly subscription. Visit https://TheBlaze.com. Explore the all-new ad-free experience and see for yourself how we're standing up against suppression and prioritizing independent journalism. CLICK HERE to Subscribe to Jason Whitlock's YouTube: https://bit.ly/3jFL36G CLICK HERE to Listen to Jason Whitlock's podcast: https://apple.co/3zHaeLTCLICK HERE to Follow Jason Whitlock on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3hvSjiJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don't have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.