Podcast appearances and mentions of Nate Silver

Nate Silver of Silver Bulletin knows a little bit about risk and prediction.  He joins Dunc'd On to discuss every aspect of this evolving issue.  How much should NBA fans care about this scandal? How much does he care as an NBA fan and bettor? Should we be concerned about the overall integrity of NBA games?  Why would multi-millionaires like Terry Rozier or Chauncey Billups engage in the alleged behavior?  Plus, how should the NBA fix these problems? Join Dunc'd On Prime! It's the only place to get every episode with Nate & Danny, plus every pod with John Hollinger & Nate as well!Use code PRESEASON25 for 35% off an annual subscription!Subscribe on YouTube to see our hilarious faces and, more importantly, see watch this free pod twice a week.Or, sign up for our FREE mailing list to get Dan Feldman's Daily Duncs with all the major topics around the league twice a week. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We're just about a week out from Election Day, and I have to say, this is what I live for. These are the kind of stories that really scratch the itch for anybody who loves the game of politics as much as I do. We've got real contests, real dollars behind them, and actual electoral stakes. Yes, I know it's not a presidential year, but this is the sandbox where some serious groundwork gets laid. And for as much as I hate the off-off-year calendar, I love election season more than anything. Here's my breakdown of where I think the chips are going to fall in November.Politics Politics Politics is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.Starting in California, we've got Prop 50. Gavin Newsom has staked a big chunk of political capital on this one. It's pitched as a pushback on Republican redistricting, with the messaging ultimately landing on “protecting America from Trump.” What started off messy got refined quickly, and with Newsom's team sticking the landing, I see a 10 to 15 point win. McCarthy was supposed to pour in $100 million to fight it, but as of now, the actual spending is suspiciously light. All that adds up to a clear Democratic win.Now onto Virginia: Winsome Earl Sears vs. Abigail Spanberger. I'm heading up to D.C. this weekend, and originally thought I'd be bouncing around Virginia to catch campaign stops. But Sears? She's nowhere to be found. Spanberger, while not the most electrifying candidate, has managed to avoid major blunders post-Jay Jones scandal. The polling tells a consistent story; Spanberger holding a lead that's grown since the scandal broke. I'm calling it Spanberger by eight. Could be tighter, but it's hard to see Sears overcoming the fundamentals working against her.As for Jay Jones, man, what a collapse. DUI, community service for his own super PAC, and leaked texts about shooting a rival politician? That's how you lose an election. Miyares hasn't trailed since that story broke. Nate Silver might be holding out hope, pointing to early voting and ticket-splitting, but my money's on Miyares by one. A close one, but still a loss for Jones. This scandal made a difference, period.New Yorkers better get ready for Mayor Zohran Mamdani. He hasn't been behind at all in public polling, all while Cuomo is clawing for relevance. Meanwhile, Curtis Sliwa isn't pulling enough Republican support to matter to anyone but Cuomo. The energy just isn't there for a last-minute surprise. Mamdani by 13.And then there's New Jersey. The Mikie Sherrill vs. Jack Ciattarelli race is the sleeper of the night. Sherrill has led for most of the race, but recent polling has things tightening. Trafalgar and Coefficient both show her up by one. Republicans are feeling bullish, and if this ends within three points, they'll have reason to. That would mean New Jersey, at minimum, becomes a fringe battleground in 2028. Not quite Arizona-level swing, but enough to force Democrats to spend real money defending it. I'm predicting Sherrill wins — but just barely.Chapters00:00:00 - Intro00:03:32 - Election Predictions00:23:08 - Update00:24:53 - Trade Deals00:30:58 - Shutdown00:38:10 - Israel00:44:36 - Interview with Austin Padgett01:38:03 - Wrap-up This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.politicspoliticspolitics.com/subscribe

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Hosts Alex Kirshner, Lindsay Gibbs, and Ben Lindbergh are joined by Nate Silver, founder of FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin, to discuss his new NFL prediction model “ELWAY” and what it reveals about an unpredictable football league. Later in the show, OG Hang Up host Stefan Fatsis returns to talk about his new book on the dictionary, “Unabridged: The Thrill of and Threat to the Modern Dictionary,” and to share some of his favorite sports word definitions. The panel also previews the upcoming NBA season. Stefan sticks around to give a throwback style introduction to Ben's Afterball on the goofy mule-kicker comedy “Gus”. On the bonus episode available exclusively for Slate Plus members, the panel has GOAT talk aboutShohei Ohtani. NFL (3:54): The tricky world of football forcasting NBA (26:33): Will Wemby be great? Fatsis is back! (45:18): The prodigal host is unabridged Afterballs (1:05:08: Hee-haw (Note: time codes are only accurate for Slate Plus members, who listen ad-free.) Get more Hang Up and Listen with Slate Plus! Join for weekly bonus episodes of Hang Up and Listen and ad-free listening on all your favorite Slate podcasts. Subscribe from the Hang Up and Listen show page on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, or visit slate.com/hangupplus for access wherever you listen. You can email us at hangup@slate.com. Podcast production and editing by Kevin Bendis, with production assistance from Patrick Fort. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A hard-hitting episode unpacking the fallout from a late-night controversy — from Jimmy Kimmel's suspended show to affiliate preemptions, Nate Silver's pushback, and the larger fight over free speech and media bias. We dissect whether the jokes were callous or calculated, why mainstream anchors missed the mark, and how censorship claims, platform bans, and political double-standards are fueling anger on both sides. Raw, unapologetic, and unfiltered — this is media criticism through the eyes of everyday Americans who expect basic decency, not political scorekeeping.

The President can't pronounce "acetaminophen." No. Really. Hilarity ensued. Whalehead Deadbear Brainworm-Lamprey is still laughing . . . and laughing like the psychopath he is at all the women he's going to hurt. He likes hurting women. Nate Silver doesn't give a damn about people losing healthcare. He says Dems need to talk about import duties, which no MAGAT understands . . . or ever will. 

Nate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword. In today's conversation, we discuss… Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing, Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making, The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders, How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects, Nate's hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term. Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nate Silver writes Silver Bulletin and is the author of On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, now in paperback with a new foreword. In today's conversation, we discuss… Honesty, reputation, and paying the bills with writing, Impact scenarios for the AI future, including how AI could impact elections and political decision-making, The emerging synergy between prediction markets and journalism, and how Nate would build a team of professional Polymarket traders, How to build a legacy, and strategies for balancing long-form and short-form projects, Nate's hypothetical plan to reform US institutions, and how that compares with real-world prospects for creating political change over the long term. Outro Music: 動物園釘子戶 (Zoo Gazer) - 大大大大大象 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This week on The Data Stack Show, John and Matt dive into the latest trends in AI, discussing the evolution of GPT models, the role of tools in reducing hallucinations, and the ongoing debate between data warehouses and agent-based approaches. They also explore the complexities of risk-taking in data teams, drawing lessons from Nate Silver's book on risk and sharing real-world analogies from cybersecurity, football, and political campaigns. Key takeaways include the importance of balancing innovation with practical risk management, the need for clear recommendations from data professionals, the value of reading fiction to understand human behavior in data, and so much more. Highlights from this week's conversation include:Initial Impressions of GPT-5 (1:41)AI Hallucinations and the Open-Source GPT Model (4:06)Tools and Determinism in AI Agents (6:00)Risks of Tool Reliance in AI (8:05)The Next Big Data Fight: Warehouses vs. Agents (10:21)Real-Time Data Processing Limitations (12:56)Risk in Data and AI: Book Recommendation (17:08)Measurable vs. Perceived Risk in Business (20:10)Security Trade-Offs and Organizational Impact (22:31)The Quest for Certainty and Wicked Learning Environments (27:37)Poker, Process, and Data Team Longevity (29:11)Support Roles and Limits of Data Teams (32:56)Final Thoughts and Takeaways (34:20) The Data Stack Show is a weekly podcast powered by RudderStack, customer data infrastructure that enables you to deliver real-time customer event data everywhere it's needed to power smarter decisions and better customer experiences. Each week, we'll talk to data engineers, analysts, and data scientists about their experience around building and maintaining data infrastructure, delivering data and data products, and driving better outcomes across their businesses with data.RudderStack helps businesses make the most out of their customer data while ensuring data privacy and security. To learn more about RudderStack visit rudderstack.com.

This week we tucked in our shirt, straightened our tie and resisted the temptation to nip off for a quick vape behind the pickle-ball court, all in order to suitably impress our guest, one of the world's greatest marketing academics, Professor Byron Sharp.  A man who would need no introduction (if we weren't contractually obliged to provide all our pod guests with one) Prof Byron is one of the world's most respected thinkers in the field of brands and consumer behaviour. Unless you're deliberately trying to get yourself fired from your marketing role, you'll no doubt have read his seminal book ‘How Brands Grow' and, if you're especially lucky, you may well have learned directly from the man himself in one of his globally prestigious academic roles.  A speaker, a teacher, a thinker and a pioneering researcher, Byron still has the time to be a thoroughly entertaining podcast guest, and is famously happy to share the kind of knee-buckling market truth that the industry fears but also really, really needs. In an episode where Byron jabs a scholarly finger into the flabby thinking that holds brands back, we ponder the many different disciplines a proper marketer should be able to wrap their heads around if they want a consumer to care. This episode is proudly dedicated to John Scriven.  Follow Byron on LinkedIn ///// Timestamps 03:27 - Early Jobs and Academia 04:38 - The Importance of Real-World Experience 06:09 - Working with Andrew Ehrenberg 08:28 - The Intent Behind "How Brands Grow" 09:41 - Marketing Blind Spots and Unexplored Areas 10:30 - Cognitive Biases and Behavioral Science 11:48 - The Role of Heuristics in Consumer Behavior 12:43 - Understanding Double Jeopardy Law 14:08 - Consumer Efficiency vs. Laziness 15:26 - Predictive Power of Marketing Science 16:06 - The Weirdness of the Real World 17:37 - Misconceptions About Marketing Science 19:40 - The Role of Synthetic Research 32:58 - B2B Marketing and Growth Strategies 35:22 - The Value of Awards in Marketing Byron's Book recommendations are: The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig Everything is Obvious by Duncan Watts The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver     /////

In his third appearance on Conversations with Tyler, Nate Silver looks back at past predictions, weighs how academic ideas such as expected utility theory fare in practice, and examines the world of sports through the lens of risk and prediction. Tyler and Nate dive into expected utility theory and random Nash equilibria in poker, whether Silver's tell-reading abilities transfer to real-world situations like NBA games, why academic writing has disappointed him, his move from atheism to agnosticism, the meta-rationality of risk-taking, electoral systems and their flaws, 2028 presidential candidates,  why he thinks superforecasters will continue to outperform AI for the next decade, why more athletes haven't come out as gay, redesigning the NBA, what mentors he needs now, the cultural and psychological peculiarities of Bay area intellectual communities, why Canada can't win a Stanley Cup, the politics of immigration in Europe and America, what he'll work on next, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video on the new dedicated Conversations with Tyler channel. Recorded July 23rd, 2025. Help keep the show ad free by donating today! Other ways to connect Follow us on X and Instagram Follow Tyler on X Follow Nate on X Sign up for our newsletter Join our Discord Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Learn more about Conversations with Tyler and other Mercatus Center podcasts here.

On this episode of Say Something Interesting Brent and Megan discuss last weekend's talk at EastLake. Other topics include the Tetris movie, On the Edge (by Nate Silver), and form letters from Paul.

Jeffrey Pritchard, Legal Director of the Coalition for Political Forecasting, analyzes lawsuits about Kalshi's sports contracts and their implications for prediction markets. Rule3O3 discusses Indian-American gender divides and the impact of childhood grievances on politics. Timestamps 0:11: Chougule introduces segment with Pritchard 1:07: Chougule introduces Rule3O3 segment 1:28: Mamdani victory 2:10: Intro ends 4:10: Pritchard segment begins 4:13: Why Kalshi wants to be regulated under federal law 4:41: State regulation 6:34: CFTC 7:24: State compliance costs 7:43: Kalshi's goal 9:09: Liquidity 10:59: Criticisms of Kalshi 11:08: Zubkoff tweet 12:40: Pritchard agreement with Zubkoff 12:54: Contradictions in Kalshi's position 13:41 : Mansour response to Zubkoff 14:37: Pritchard response to Mansour 16:28: Chougule's view of Kalshi sports contracts 18:28: Chougule defends Kalshi 19:46: Market demand for sports betting 20:24: The need to attract sports bettors  21:22: Regulatory environment 22:53: Retail traders 24:01: Gaming industry 29:48: Lawsuits 29:58: Nevada 30:37: New Jersey 31:15: Maryland 31:23: Illinois 31:46: Third Circuit 32:11: Timing 32:24 : Pritchard segment ends 32:39: Rule 3O3 segment begins 32:41: Gender divides among Indian-Americans 32:54: Saira Rao 33:22: White women 35:51: Finding an edge through elite thinking 36:06: Childhood trauma 36:57: Outsider psychology 37:34: Political biographies 38:20: UVA rape accusation 40:31: Crime demographics in mainstream media 42:41: Rule3O3 segment ends 42:57: DC August Forecasting and Prediction Markets meetup Star Spangled Gamblers is a podcast on betting and winning real money on politics. SUPPORT US: Patreon: www.patreon.com/starspangledgamblers FOLLOW US ON TWITTER/X: @ssgamblers VISIT OUR WEBPAGE: www.starspangledgamblers.com  Trade at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, August 14 from 6-9pm. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Our guest speaker this month is Ambassador Tom Miller. A 29-year career diplomat, Ambassador Miller's experience in the Foreign Service spanned many continents, including posts in Greece, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Cyprus, Thailand as well as the State Department in Washington, where he worked on North Africa, the Middle East, and counter-terrorism issues. From 2019 to 2022, Tom was Chair of the Board of the US subsidiary of Intralot, Inc., a US corporation that runs lotteries in 11 states. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! https://partiful.com/e/2VIW9cQaw6pexbaQSmUh?f=1&photo=all Who are we? We are prediction market traders on prediction markets like Kalshi, Manifold, PredictIt, and Polymarket, forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, futurists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Jeffrey Pritchard, attorney and writer at Comped.com, returns to discuss developments in prediction market regulation under the Trump administration. Timestamps 0:00: Intro begins 0:37: CFTC prediction market roundtable 1:40: Polymarket investigation 3:02: Regulatory entrepreneurship 5:43: Intro ends 7:43: Interview begins 8:16: Comped.com 9:51: Trump administration 11:41: Quintenz 14:34: Pham 15:15: Kalshi's strategy 18:27: Prediction market roundtable 20:26: Gaming law 26:35: Reaction to Kalshi sports markets 31:53: Kalshi lawsuits 32:51: CEA 34:45: Federalism 37:03: Injunctions 38:21: Maryland case Follow Star Spangled Gamblers Twitter: @ssgamblers YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@starspangledgamblers1029 TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@starspangledgambl7 Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Join us for our monthly DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup on Thursday, July 31. https://partiful.com/e/NIWa277GHtddC5sxSTU6 Our guest speaker this month will be former U.S. diplomat Thomas Miller, who previously served as the non-executive chairman of the U.S. subsidiary of Intralot, one of world's largest lottery/sports betting operators. Meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. We're returning to Rocklands BBQ in Arlington a few blocks from the Virginia Sq-GMU metrorail stop on the Orange/Silver line. Free parking also available. We'll be in the private space upstairs; head to the back of the restaurant, and up the stairs on your left. Food and drink available for purchase. Open to all ages. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

On the Monday July 21, 2025 edition of The Armstrong & Getty One More Thing Podcast... Joe has a Nate Silver article stuck in his craw... A NYT columnist details his use of a pet psychic. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

President Donald Trump's approval ratings are slipping in a narrow but consistent pattern, driven by voter dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy, trade and inflation. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin highlights a 4.5-point decline in net approval since the start of Trump's second term, with steep drops on key economic indicators. Subscribe to our newsletter to stay informed with the latest news from a leading Black-owned & controlled media company: https://aurn.com/newsletter Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Before she decided to become a poker pro, Maria Konnikova didn't know how many cards are in a deck. But she did have a Ph.D. in psychology, a brilliant coach, and a burning desire to know whether life is driven more by skill or chance. She found some answers in poker — and she's willing to tell us everything she learned. SOURCES:Maria Konnikova, author of The Biggest Bluff. RESOURCES:“Gender Differences in Performance Predictions: Evidence from the Cognitive Reflection Test,” by Patrick Ring, Levent Neyse, Tamas David-Barett, and Ulrich Schmidt (Frontiers in Psychology, 2016).“The headwinds/tailwinds Asymmetry: An Availability Bias in Assessments of Barriers and Blessings,” by Shai Davidai and Thomas Gilovich (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 2016).“The Two Settings of Kind and Wicked Learning Environments,” by Robin M. Hogarth, Tomás Lejarraga, and Emre Soyer (Current Directions in Psychological Science, 2015)."The Limits of Self-Control: Self-Control, Illusory Control, and Risky Financial Decision Making,” by Maria Konnikova (Columbia University, 2013).“Generalized expectancies for internal versus external control of reinforcement” by J.B. Rotter (Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 1966). EXTRAS:The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win, by Maria Konnikova.Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes, by Maria Konnikova.The Confidence Game, by Maria Konnikova.Theory of Games and Economic Behavior, by John Von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern."This Year's World Series Of Poker Is Different," by Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova (2025).

Mike Lindell's sparklemagic lawyers find out that sometimes ChatGPT ends with Rule 11. Then we visit Elon Musk and Sam Altman for a lesson in civil procedure. After that Andrew and Liz explain how Trump can't actually un-ban TikTok via presidential edict and break down the latest Supreme Court efforts to burn down the judiciary. Plus for subscribers, Nate Silver — who only gambles for fun, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise! — is right about the Republicans' trillion dollar tax heist???   Links:   Coomer v. Lindell [Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/63296393/coomer-v-lindell/   Musk v. Altman [Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69013420/musk-v-altman/   D.V.D. v. Department of Homeland Security [Trial Docket via Court Listener] https://www.courtlistener.com/docket/69775896/dvd-v-us-department-of-homeland-security/   Department of Homeland Security v. D.V.D. [SCOTUS Docket] https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/24a1153.html   EO 14166 (TikTok ban) https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/application-of-protecting-americans-from-foreign-adversary-controlled-applications-act-to-tiktok/   FOIA production re TikTok https://embed.documentcloud.org/documents/25989866-25-3980-nd-cal-response-07032025/   Show Links: https://www.lawandchaospod.com/ BlueSky: @LawAndChaosPod Threads: @LawAndChaosPod Twitter: @LawAndChaosPod  

Amid escalating federal pressure on universities, Stanford Law School alum Greg Lukianoff, JD '00, joins host Professor Pam Karlan for a sharp look at the free speech firestorms engulfing universities like Harvard and Columbia. First Amendment champion, president of the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE), and co-author of The Coddling of the American Mind, Lukianoff recently penned an essay for The Atlantic titled “Trump's Attacks Threaten Much More Than Harvard.” In this episode, Lukianoff expands on his essay, breaking down the Trump administration's tactics to punish elite institutions, from defunding threats and faculty interference to student visa crackdowns, while also calling out universities themselves for stifling dissent and eroding public trust in higher education.Links:Greg Lukianoff  >>> FIRE pageThe Canceling of the American Mind >>> web pageThe Coddling of the American Mind >>> web page“Trump's Attacks Threaten Much More Than Harvard” >>> The Atlantic pageConnect:Episode Transcripts >>> Stanford Legal Podcast WebsiteStanford Legal Podcast >>> LinkedIn PageRich Ford >>>  Twitter/XPam Karlan >>> Stanford Law School PageStanford Law School >>> Twitter/XStanford Lawyer Magazine >>> Twitter/X(00:00:00) Introduction of Greg Lukianoff(00:05:01) Free Speech and Academic Freedom(00:10:01) Challenges to Free Speech(00:15:01) Legal Cases and Free Speech(00:20:01) Free Speech and the Government (00:30:01) Future of Free Speech

In the 899th episode of the PokerNews Podcast, Chad Holloway, Kyna England, and Mike Holtz are joined by PokerStars Team Pro Maria Konnikova at Level 9 Studio to offer their thoughts on the most polarizing player at the 2025 World Series of Poker (WSOP), Martin Kabrhel. Do you love him? Hate him? Is he either good or bad for poker? What sort of antics has he been up to? What poker player called him a p***y? Find out as the hosts don't shy away from sharing their thoughts on the boisterous high roller. Konnikova then talks about her upcoming book, hosting the Risky Business Podcast alongside Nate Silver, and what's going on over at PokerStars, including the upcoming NAPT and an emphasis on women's initiatives.  Also, learn about Joao Vieira winning $100K High Roller for his fourth bracelet and David “ODB” Baker taking down the $5K Seniors NLH for his fourth bracelet. Oh, and Michael Wang won a Wynn Summer Classic event for career-high $555K! Finally, see highlights from “Miami” John Cernuto's Celebration of Life, including a moving speech from his friend, Hollywood actor James Woods, and a look at the 2025 Poker Hall of Fame nominees. Find out who the crew thinks will get in and why. Learn about all those stories and more in the latest episode of the PokerNews Podcast! A new PokerNews Podcast will drop twice a week during the 2025 WSOP every Thursday and Sunday at 8a PT / 11a ET / 4p UK time. Remember to subscribe to our YouTube channel so you do not miss an episode! Time Stamps *Time | Topic* 00:00 | Welcome to the show 00:20 | Special guest Maria Konnikova 01:04 | How do you feel about Martin Kabrhel? 09:20 | Martin Kabrhel needles Texas Mike & slowrolls Jonathan Jaffe 15:30 | Martin Kabrhel gets handsy; pisses off Nick Schulman 16:43 | Kabrhel's lack of respect for personal space 18:33 | Hand of the 2025 WSOP – David Peters bluffs Kabrhel 23:27 | Poll – What are your thoughts on Martin Kabrhel? 23:58 | Sponsor – WSOP Free-to-Play App 24:34 | Get to know Maria Konnikova 26:43 | PokerStars women's initiatives 28:20 | NAPT coming up in November 29:05 | Sponsor – WPT Global 29:38 | Joao Vieira wins $100K High Roller for 4th bracelet 30:20 | David “ODB” Baker wins $5K Seniors NLH for 4th bracelet 30:50 | Michael Wang wins Wynn Summer Classic event for career-high $555K 31:45 | Highlights from “Miami” John Cernuto's Celebration of Life 33:08 | Actor James Woods gives moving speech remember Miami John 35:50 | 2025 Poker Hall of Fame nominees

This week, we're bringing you an episode of Risky Business, a podcast about better decision making from our friends Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova. You can find more Risky Business at https://www.pushkin.fm/podcasts/risky-business-with-nate-silver-maria-konnikova. You can join Andrew and Carlos on ClubWPT ... Read more...

Aaron McIntire recaps the week's biggest stories, including Lucy Guo, a 30-year-old college dropout, surpassing Taylor Swift as the world's youngest self-made female billionaire with a $1.3 billion net worth from her Scale AI stake, co-founded with Alexandr Wang and backed by Peter Thiel. Concerns mount over Palantir Technologies' alleged contract with the Trump administration to build a centralized database on Americans, countered by ex-employee Wendy Anderson's defense of its data integration tools. Tim Walz and Nate Silver analyze young men's shift toward conservatism, with polls showing conservatives dominate among those with strong mental health. Plus, Stephen Miller slams Democrats' “unsellable ideology,” and fears grow over Chinese-owned properties near U.S. military bases.   Lucy Guo, Taylor Swift, Scale AI, Palantir Technologies, Peter Thiel, Alexandr Wang, Wendy Anderson, Trump administration, centralized database, Tim Walz, Nate Silver, young men voters, conservatism, Stephen Miller, Chinese investments, military bases, national security

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- Following a meeting with President Donald Trump at the White House, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-TX) took questions from the press about passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill in the Senate. 6:30pm- While speaking with economist Oren Cass during a black-tie event in Washington DC, Vice President JD Vance joked that being referred to as an “intellectual” is insulting! 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 6:50pm- Daniel Turner—Founder and Executive Director of Power the Future—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to quickly recap his experience testifying before the House Oversight Committee earlier today where Democrat Congressman Greg Casar (D-TX) openly threatened him!

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:05pm- During a Senate hearing on Tuesday, Senators Ted Cruz and Cory Booker got into an argument over the Biden Administrations refusal to comply with Supreme Court rulings. The debate ended with Cruz hilariously referring to Booker as “Spartacus.” 6:30pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 6:40pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Show (06/03/2025): 3:05pm- On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. 3:30pm- In a new article posted to his Substack, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? Silver concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor. 3:50pm- During Tuesday's press briefing, Peter Doocy asked White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt about former President Joe Biden's reliance on the auto pen for pardons. Doocy's investigation concluded that Biden's authentic signature only appears on the former president's pardon of his son Hunter Biden. 4:05pm- Anna Kelly—White House Deputy Press Secretary—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. She reacts to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-NY) inaccurate rant against the Republican bill where he baselessly claimed it would end “American energy dominance.” Many on the left continue to meltdown over every Trump-endorsed plan/policy. But during a recent interview, even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon advocated on behalf of the One Big Beautiful Bill—calling it essential for small business and strong economic growth. 4:30pm- Rich steals Justin's headset, Matt gets yelled at (as per usual), and Rich—with some help from the audience—relives some of his greatest injuries, including the time he was stung in the eye by a jellyfish! 4:45pm- In a series of articles published last week, The New York Times examined the Democrat Party's continued struggles appealing to the American electorate. Shane Goldmacher writes that Democrats “are still searching for the path forward”—noting that the party spent $20 million studying their “erosion” of support with “young men” specifically. In another article, Goldmacher—alongside June Kim and Christine Zhang—evaluate “how Donald Trump has remade America's political landscape.” They document that 435 counties across the country became more “Democratic” from 2012 and 2024—however, 2,678 counties became more “Republican.” Further complicating matters is the 2030 census which is expected to cause comfortably blue states to lose electoral votes as citizens move to red states. You can read the articles here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/25/us/politics/democratic-party-voters.html. And here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/05/25/us/politics/trump-politics-democrats.html. 5:00pm- Lenore Skenazy—Contributing Editor for Reason, Founder of the Free-Range Kids Movement, and President of Let Grow—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss her latest article, “Mom Arrested, Facing 5 Years in Prison for Leaving 8- and 10-Year-Old Boys at Home.” David DeLugas—Attorney & Executive Director Member of the Board Founder of Parents USA—is representing the Georgia mom and offers a legal update. You can learn more about the story here: https://reason.com/2025/05/29/mom-arrested-facing-5-years-in-prison-for-leaving-8-and-10-year-old-boys-at-home/. And here: https://www.pledge.to/ParentsUSA-Kids-alone-Mom-arrested. 5:25pm- During a conversation on Matt Taibbi's podcast, novelist Walter Kirn revealed that George Orwell's “1984” now comes with a trigger warning! 5:40pm- Jimmy Failla—Host of “Fox News Saturday with Jimmy Failla” & “Fox Across America”—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss their frequent appearances together on Fox News. Failla will be performing at SoulJoel's in Montgomery County, PA on August 9th. You can find information about tickets here: https://radio. ...

The Rich Zeoli Show- Opening Monologue (06/03/2025): On Monday, statistician and political analyst Nate Silver shared a survey which indicates 45% of self-identifying “liberals” suffer from “poor” mental health—suggesting there could be a correlation between “excellent” mental health and conservative political views. And in a new article posted to his Substack, Silver attempts to answer the question: why do young men dislike Democrats? He concludes that young males are largely ambitious, entrepreneurial, and strong believers in individualism. Contrarily, the Democrat Party is viewed as risk averse and overly controlling. Additionally, the Democratic Party's fixation with politically correct speech is perceived as restrictive and hostile towards humor.

Aaron McIntire covers the fallout from the Boulder terror attack by Mohamed Sabry Soliman, with Trump and Attorney General Pam Bondi vowing to deport the Egyptian national and prosecute anti-Semitic violence. Senate Majority Leader John Thune warns of a $2.6 trillion tax hike if the “big, beautiful bill” fails, while the Washington Post baffles over a “mysterious” fentanyl drop at the secured border. Democrats struggle to connect with young men, as Nate Silver's data reveals conservatives dominate among those with strong mental health, hinting at a spiritual divide.   news, politics, Aaron McIntire, Mohamed Sabry Soliman, Boulder attack, terrorism, illegal immigration, Donald Trump, Pam Bondi, hate crime, deportation, John Thune, big beautiful bill, tax increase, child tax credit, Washington Post, fentanyl, border security, Axios, economy, optimism, ICE, masks, doxxing, Moderna, COVID vaccine, Mount Etna, volcano, global warming, Steve Milloy, Tim Walz, young men, Nate Silver, mental health, spiritual battle, current events  

Democrat pollster Nate Silver says the quiet parts outloud. Democrats have a big problem with mental health and they expect you to play along with their delusions. Target tones down their pride month apparel as Boise shuts down Pride Season for a lack of interest. Boulder terrorists says he wants to kill all Zionist while former deputy director of the FBI Andrew McCabe says not to jump to conclusions of the terrorist's motive. Maxine Waters punished for accepting illegal campaign donations. When is she going to jail?

Shedeur Sanders fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, and ESPN is struggling to handle it. Many people on the internet believe that Shedeur's drop in the draft was due to racism, especially since Cam Ward was the number-one overall pick. This situation doesn't make sense to them. There's widespread outrage over Shedeur being subjected to a prank call, even though prank calls happen to players all the time and usually go unreported. Mel Kiper has embarrassed himself by strongly supporting the Sanders family during this situation, similar to how Nate Silver has handled other controversial topics. ESPN's coverage is becoming a joke, and it's time for the race-baiting to end. Later in the show, Steve Kim joins to discuss Tupac Shedeur. Skap Attack and Whitlock react to the L.A. Lakers being down 3-1 in their playoff series against the Timberwolves. ​​Today's Sponsors: Relief Factor With Relief Factor, you'll feel better every day, and you'll live better every day. Get their 3-Week QuickStart for only $19.95 – that's less than a dollar a day. Call 1-800-4-Relief Or Visit https://ReliefFactor.com  Home Title Lock Go to https://hometitlelock.com/fearless and use promo code FEARLESS to get a FREE title history report so you can find out if you're already a victim AND 14 days of protection for FREE! And make sure to check out the Million Dollar TripleLock protection details when you get there! Exclusions apply. For details, visit https://hometitlelock.com/warranty BlueChew Enhance your sexual experiences with BlueChew, the first brand to offer chewable tablets for better sex. Get your first month FREE — just cover the $5 shipping fee — by using the promo code FEARLESS at https://BlueChew.com. Fearless Army Roll Call 3.0 Roll Call 3.0 continues the mission of men encouraging each other to pursue holiness and the execution of The Great Commission (Matthew 28: 19-20) by seeking alliance and fellowship with men who share our faith, values and commitment to obey our Lord and Savior. Join hundreds of like-minded men in Nashville on May 2nd-3rd for this important conference. Lunch will be included. Tickets are available right now at https://www.fearlessrollcall.com. SHOW OUTLINE 00:00 Intro We want to hear from the Fearless Army!! Join the conversation in the show chat, leave a comment or email Jason at FearlessBlazeShow@gmail.com Want more Fearless content? Subscribe to Jason Whitlock Harmony for a biblical perspective on everyday issues at https://www.youtube.com/@JasonWhitlockHarmony Get 10% off Blaze swag by using code Fearless10 at https://shop.blazemedia.com/fearless Make yourself an official member of the “Fearless Army!” Support Conservative Voices! Subscribe to BlazeTV at https://get.blazetv.com/FEARLESS and get $20 off your yearly subscription. Visit https://TheBlaze.com. Explore the all-new ad-free experience and see for yourself how we're standing up against suppression and prioritizing independent journalism. CLICK HERE to Subscribe to Jason Whitlock's YouTube: https://bit.ly/3jFL36G CLICK HERE to Listen to Jason Whitlock's podcast: https://apple.co/3zHaeLTCLICK HERE to Follow Jason Whitlock on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3hvSjiJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:00pm- Police officials provided an update on the shooting that occurred at Florida State University. FSU Chief of Police Jason Trumbower confirmed that two people have died, and six others are at a local hospital with gunshot wounds. The shooter was also taken to the hospital. Despite initial reports that there were two shooters, police confirmed the shooter acted alone and there is no further threat to the community. 6:15pm- According to reports, the suspected Florida State University shooter—Phoenix Ikner—was quoted in an FSU News article earlier this year. He stated: “I think it's a little too late, he's [Trump] already going to be inaugurated on Jan. 20 and there's not really much you can do unless you outright revolt, and I don't think anyone wants that.” FSU News has removed the quote from the story—leaving an editorial notation of the decision. 6:20pm- Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee David Hogg announced that he plans to challenge moderate Democrats in upcoming primaries—favoring more progressive challengers. In response, James Carville called for the DNC to sue Hogg for misappropriating funds. 6:30pm- Statistician/FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver and podcast co-host Galen Druke revealed that they believe Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, at this moment, is the most likely hypothetical candidate to be the Democrat Party's 2028 presidential nominee. Meanwhile, George Clooney reveals his preference in 2028 is Maryland Governor Wes Moore. 6:50pm- Rich gets invited to the White House…twice in one week! Weekday afternoons on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT, Rich Zeoli gives the expert analysis and humorous take that we need in this crazy political climate. Along with Executive Producer Matt DeSantis and Justin Otero, the Zeoli show is the next generation of talk radio and you can be a part of it weekday afternoons 3-7pm.

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @pjchougule Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

The Ochelli Effect 3-27-2025 NEWSThe Signal and The Noise is more than a bookGooGle AI Explains:The Signal:Represents the true, underlying information or pattern that we are trying to extract or predict. The Noise:Refers to random variations, errors, or irrelevant factors that can obscure or distort the signal, making it difficult to identify the true underlying pattern. Nate Silver's Book:In his book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't," Silver explores how to better understand and make predictions by focusing on the signal and minimizing the influence of noise. Between the Signal and the NoiseToday;s TABLE SETTERSRepublicans Funded that Portrait Trump Hates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKFWthykMKkTesla Stock Jumps. What's Behind the Rise.https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-today-self-driving-sales-6a9e7a8c3/25/25 Hell & High Water with Meria & Chuck Ochellihttps://meria.net/2025/03/hell-high-water-with-meria-chuck-ochelli-5/The Best Evidence Hoax and David Lifton's War Against the Critics of the Warren Commissionby Roger Feinmanhttp://22november1963.org.uk/roger-feinman-between-the-signal-and-the-noiseZelenskyy sensationally predicts Putin 'will die soon'https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-sensationally-predicts-putin-will-die-soonBook Brief: The Signal and the NoiseWhy So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don'thttps://clearpurpose.media/book-brief-the-signal-and-the-noise-3cee7501407823andMe files for bankruptcy, Anne Wojcicki steps down as CEOhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/23andme-files-for-bankruptcy-anne-wojcicki-steps-down-as-ceo.htmlTexas lawmakers advance bill that makes it a crime for teachers to assign "Catcher in the Rye"https://popular.info/p/texas-lawmakers-advance-bill-that  Jon Stewart on Which Speech Is Free and Which Will Cost You in Trump's Americahttps://youtu.be/sNMdRzK9Nj0?si=7Mxb4e7tH7cH8c6l&t=942Crockett calls Texas Gov. Abbott ‘Governor Hot Wheels' https://thehill.com/homenews/5213119-republican-criticism-crockett-comments/‘F*** off': Danish official has message for Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGCcIOF9qGERepublican truck driver Ed Durr ends bid to be New Jersey governor and backs Bill Spadeahttps://apnews.com/article/ed-durr-new-jersey-governor-c59d535d456bfa0467e4161943bf97fd---JFK DOCUMENT DUMP 2025What's going on with the Kennedy Center under Trump? And JFK DOC DUMP 2025https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-center-trump-what-to-https://know-4305e2c3d5611c4bfb1686d597727369https://newrepublic.com/post/192932/trump-plan-kennedy-center-leaked-audiohttps://www.eastbaytimes.com/2025/03/19/leaked-kennedy-center-audio-trumps-love-for-1980s-cats/JFK Assassination Records - 2025 Documents Release    March 18, 2025 - 7 PM EST Release: 32,000 pages (1,123 PDF files)    March 18, 2025 - 10:30 PM EST Release: 31,400 pages (1,059 PDF files)    March 20, 2025 - 9:30 PM EST Release: 13,700 pages (161 PDF files)    March 26, 2025 - 3:30 PM EST Release: 53 pages (16 PDF files)https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025The Ochelli Effect 3-26-2025 Larry Hancock - Mike Swanson https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-ochelli-effect-3-26-2025-larry-hancock-mike-swanson--651452183/26/25: EQUIS - JFK BLOWN AWAY, WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE TO SAY? W/ CHUCK OCHELLI https://groundzeroplus.com/3-26-25-equis-jfk-blown-away-what-else-do-i-have-to-say-w-chuck-ochelli/JFK Live Podcast: How Angleton Duped Congressional Investigators About th Surveillance of Oswaldhttps://jfkfacts.substack.com/p/jfk-live-podcast-how-angleton-duped?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=315632&post_id=160033915&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=68fjc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email---SIGNAL,NOISE,RINSE,REPEAT  PATTERNS? From 'We All Make Mistakes' To 'Hegseth Should Be Stepping Down': Lawmakers React To War Plans LeakForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSbLpKY65k0“F—king Idiot”: Trump Team Considers Fall Guy for War Plans Group Chathttps://newrepublic.com/post/193122/trump-team-considers-fall-guy-war-plans-group-chatSen. Mike Warner speaks on 'pattern' of national security mishapshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/iTMofueJNRUMark Warner D-VA Intell Committee Vice Chair https://youtube.com/shorts/kZEMEerDJGc?si=jke1Nb_pcOH6tEh5Trump officials texted war plans to a group chat in a secure app that included a journalisthttps://apnews.com/article/war-plans-trump-hegseth-atlantic-230718a984911dd8663d59edbcb86f2a‘That's a lie': Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg reacts to Hegseth's claims about group chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJQwmGEcwmUPresident Trump on Atlantic's Editor-in-Chief Being Accidentally Included in a Signal Group Chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBfJLfiF7HcThe Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Planshttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ WATCH: Trump Reveals To Reporters His Take On JD Vance's Comments In The Leaked Signal Group ChatForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqE1TkOcqEQThe Atlantic editor explains why they released entire Signal chat of Hegseth's detailed attack planshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xahace-QxxgSignal chat records must be preserved, federal judge tells Trump administrationhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/signal-chat-case-judge-messagesPresident Trump speaks on Signal group chat leak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XQgjupry_w&list=RDNS3XQgjupry_w&start_radio=1

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs  13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don't have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

SEASON 3 EPISODE 75: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN Special Edition (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Some time over Thanksgiving in Nantucket the light bulb went off over Joe Biden's head and he finally realized that no, the norms and traditions and institutions to which he and most of the rest of us have dedicated our lives did NOT miraculously re-grow, did NOT suddenly spring, fully restored and intact, from the ground. He saw that not only was his son about to go to prison because of his own foolish decision to not interfere with an enfeebled Department of Justice, and because of the dictator it let get away, who would now aim his DOJ at Hunter Biden - and Joe Biden - and anybody else - for personal revenge. The President figured this out and pulled his son out of harm's way. And much of he left attacked him for it. They are Morons. I don't care about Hunter Biden, particularly. I care about the fact that we are 48 days away from a nascent military dictatorship taking over this government, supported by an unknown percentage of the population that wants to see Hunter and Joe Biden hanging from construction cranes parading through the streets, and wants to see Trump in power for life. A We JUST got one more guy out of their sights and we JUST shoved one more plotline up Trump, and up Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth and Stephen Miller and whichever other lunatics Trump wants to take over the asylum. And countless liberals – and anti-Trumpers – think this will actually provide cover for Trump pardoning the January 6thinsurrectionists because apparently for the last ten years they have been hallucinating and thinking Trump has ever bothered to seek cover for anything. Or they think we should be "better" than them. The Trumpists are planning to put us in camps. I don't care if we are better than them or worse than them or monstrous to them. If somebody's going to go to camps, it ain't going to be us, it's got to be them. End of debate. In addition to explaining why this was not just the right decision but should be a template of thousands of further pardons, permit me to excoriate a bunch of the clowns who cannot see the forest for the trees. Or the fact that the forest is on fire. And then for giggles we have the moronic comments of Nate Silver and Dinesh D'Souza, complaining about pardons when he himself got an undeserved pardon. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren't predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren't — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted' movement,' talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.Show Notes:Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UXCheck out Nate Silver's polling – https://www.natesilver.net/Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can't admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won't accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics. If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe. Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That's why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life's most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

Krystal and Saagar discuss former model accuses Trump of groping, John Kelly says Trump is fascist, Nate Silver says Trump will win, Axelrod calls out Kamala word salad.   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com   Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump is surging, Kamala is flailing, and Nate Silver says his "gut" is that Trump will win. So, what's the left's last-ditch play? Compare Trump to Hitler! Kash Patel joins Charlie to talk about this pathetic rehash of 2016 rhetoric. Plus, Sergio Gor talks about publishing the president's books, working with Don Junior, and the "Mother of All Trump Rallies" happening in Georgia tonight.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a month, a media echo chamber talked endlessly about Kamala's "vibes" and "momentum." Now, Nate Silver says Trump is back in the lead, and expert observer Mark Halperin says Democrats' own internal data suggests Kamala could be in the same spot Joe Biden was by mid-September. Kane of Citizen Free Press joins Charlie to react. Plus, Michael Shellenberger dissects Mark Zuckerberg's letter to Congress, and the latest proof of anti-American misconduct at the FBI and CIA. Become a member at members.charliekirk.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.