Podcast appearances and mentions of Nate Silver

Shedeur Sanders fell to the fourth round of the NFL Draft, and ESPN is struggling to handle it. Many people on the internet believe that Shedeur's drop in the draft was due to racism, especially since Cam Ward was the number-one overall pick. This situation doesn't make sense to them. There's widespread outrage over Shedeur being subjected to a prank call, even though prank calls happen to players all the time and usually go unreported. Mel Kiper has embarrassed himself by strongly supporting the Sanders family during this situation, similar to how Nate Silver has handled other controversial topics. ESPN's coverage is becoming a joke, and it's time for the race-baiting to end. Later in the show, Steve Kim joins to discuss Tupac Shedeur. Skap Attack and Whitlock react to the L.A. Lakers being down 3-1 in their playoff series against the Timberwolves. ​​Today's Sponsors: Relief Factor With Relief Factor, you'll feel better every day, and you'll live better every day. Get their 3-Week QuickStart for only $19.95 – that's less than a dollar a day. Call 1-800-4-Relief Or Visit https://ReliefFactor.com  Home Title Lock Go to https://hometitlelock.com/fearless and use promo code FEARLESS to get a FREE title history report so you can find out if you're already a victim AND 14 days of protection for FREE! And make sure to check out the Million Dollar TripleLock protection details when you get there! Exclusions apply. For details, visit https://hometitlelock.com/warranty BlueChew Enhance your sexual experiences with BlueChew, the first brand to offer chewable tablets for better sex. Get your first month FREE — just cover the $5 shipping fee — by using the promo code FEARLESS at https://BlueChew.com. Fearless Army Roll Call 3.0 Roll Call 3.0 continues the mission of men encouraging each other to pursue holiness and the execution of The Great Commission (Matthew 28: 19-20) by seeking alliance and fellowship with men who share our faith, values and commitment to obey our Lord and Savior. Join hundreds of like-minded men in Nashville on May 2nd-3rd for this important conference. Lunch will be included. Tickets are available right now at https://www.fearlessrollcall.com. SHOW OUTLINE 00:00 Intro We want to hear from the Fearless Army!! Join the conversation in the show chat, leave a comment or email Jason at FearlessBlazeShow@gmail.com Want more Fearless content? Subscribe to Jason Whitlock Harmony for a biblical perspective on everyday issues at https://www.youtube.com/@JasonWhitlockHarmony Get 10% off Blaze swag by using code Fearless10 at https://shop.blazemedia.com/fearless Make yourself an official member of the “Fearless Army!” Support Conservative Voices! Subscribe to BlazeTV at https://get.blazetv.com/FEARLESS and get $20 off your yearly subscription. Visit https://TheBlaze.com. Explore the all-new ad-free experience and see for yourself how we're standing up against suppression and prioritizing independent journalism. CLICK HERE to Subscribe to Jason Whitlock's YouTube: https://bit.ly/3jFL36G CLICK HERE to Listen to Jason Whitlock's podcast: https://apple.co/3zHaeLTCLICK HERE to Follow Jason Whitlock on Twitter: https://bit.ly/3hvSjiJ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

Since Donald Trump's decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election, the Democratic Party has been in a period of intense introspection and reorganization. The loss has prompted party leaders, strategists, and supporters to reassess their messaging, leadership, and long-term strategy. Amid this shake-up, prominent political analyst and pollster Nate Silver has suggested that Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez could emerge as the new face of the Democratic Party. Silver points to her national recognition, progressive platform, and strong appeal among younger and more diverse voters as indicators that she could be a formidable frontrunner in the 2028 presidential race. What a terrifying thought.  Freedom Marketplace: https://freedommarketplace.net The Stack: https://www.toddhuffshow.com/stack-of-stuff Email: todd@toddhuffshow.comPhone: 317.210.2830Follow us on…Instagram: @toddhuffshowFacebook: The Todd Huff ShowTwitter: @toddhuffshowLinkedIn: The Todd Huff ShowTikTok: @toddhuffshowSupport Our Partners:https://www.toddhuffshow.com/partners Links:https://www.mypillow.com/todd Promo Code: TODDhttps://mystore.com/toddhttps://soltea.com - Promo Code TODD for $29.95 off your first orderEaston University - https://www.eastonuniversity.comkenaifish.com - Promo Code TODD to save 15%

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 4: 6:00pm- Police officials provided an update on the shooting that occurred at Florida State University. FSU Chief of Police Jason Trumbower confirmed that two people have died, and six others are at a local hospital with gunshot wounds. The shooter was also taken to the hospital. Despite initial reports that there were two shooters, police confirmed the shooter acted alone and there is no further threat to the community. 6:15pm- According to reports, the suspected Florida State University shooter—Phoenix Ikner—was quoted in an FSU News article earlier this year. He stated: “I think it's a little too late, he's [Trump] already going to be inaugurated on Jan. 20 and there's not really much you can do unless you outright revolt, and I don't think anyone wants that.” FSU News has removed the quote from the story—leaving an editorial notation of the decision. 6:20pm- Vice Chair of the Democratic National Committee David Hogg announced that he plans to challenge moderate Democrats in upcoming primaries—favoring more progressive challengers. In response, James Carville called for the DNC to sue Hogg for misappropriating funds. 6:30pm- Statistician/FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver and podcast co-host Galen Druke revealed that they believe Alexandria Ocasio Cortez, at this moment, is the most likely hypothetical candidate to be the Democrat Party's 2028 presidential nominee. Meanwhile, George Clooney reveals his preference in 2028 is Maryland Governor Wes Moore. 6:50pm- Rich gets invited to the White House…twice in one week! Weekday afternoons on Talk Radio 1210 WPHT, Rich Zeoli gives the expert analysis and humorous take that we need in this crazy political climate. Along with Executive Producer Matt DeSantis and Justin Otero, the Zeoli show is the next generation of talk radio and you can be a part of it weekday afternoons 3-7pm.

In 2016, Blitz (@blizzythegoat24) bet on Donald Trump to win the general election. In 2020, Blitz not only bet on Biden to win the election, he guessed the outcome of every state correctly. In 2024, he managed to do the same. He bet on Trump to win the election and guessed every state correctly. In this episode, Blitz explains for the first time how he did it. Timestamps 0:40: Blitz's achievement 3:25: Intro ends 5:25: Interview begins 6:00: Blitz's background 7:16: Blitz's bad start on PredictIt 7:59: Tweet markets 11:00: John Phillips's defense of tweet markets 13:43: Andrew Yang death threats 18:01: Trump VP pick in 2016 19:57: Blitz's methodology in 2024 26:26: Blue wall 29:52: Florida early vote 33:34: Nevada early turnout 37:50: Georgia 38:08: 2020 41:18: Women/abortion 42:01: Black voters 44:26: Polls 52:21: Concerns about democracy 1:01:30: Political bias Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/x @pjchougule Trade on tweet markets and many more at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

This week, Nate and Maria discuss AI 2027, a new report from the AI Futures Project that lays out some pretty doom-y scenarios for our near-term AI future. They talk about how likely humans are to be misled by rogue AI, and whether current conflicts between the US and China will affect the way this all unfolds. Plus, Nate talks about the feedback he gave the AI 2027 writers after reading an early draft of their forecast, and reveals what he sees as the report’s central flaw. The AI Futures Project’s AI 2027 scenario: https://ai-2027.com/ For more from Nate and Maria, subscribe to their newsletters: The Leap from Maria Konnikova Silver Bulletin from Nate Silver Get ad-free episodes, and get your questions answered in an exclusive weekly bonus episode, of Risky Business by subscribing to Pushkin+ on Apple Podcasts or Pushkin.fm. Pushkin+ subscribers can access ad-free episodes, full audiobooks, exclusive binges, and bonus content for all Pushkin shows. Subscribe on Apple: apple.co/pushkinSubscribe on Pushkin: pushkin.fm/plusSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Ochelli Effect 3-27-2025 NEWSThe Signal and The Noise is more than a bookGooGle AI Explains:The Signal:Represents the true, underlying information or pattern that we are trying to extract or predict. The Noise:Refers to random variations, errors, or irrelevant factors that can obscure or distort the signal, making it difficult to identify the true underlying pattern. Nate Silver's Book:In his book "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't," Silver explores how to better understand and make predictions by focusing on the signal and minimizing the influence of noise. Between the Signal and the NoiseToday;s TABLE SETTERSRepublicans Funded that Portrait Trump Hates https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKFWthykMKkTesla Stock Jumps. What's Behind the Rise.https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-price-today-self-driving-sales-6a9e7a8c3/25/25 Hell & High Water with Meria & Chuck Ochellihttps://meria.net/2025/03/hell-high-water-with-meria-chuck-ochelli-5/The Best Evidence Hoax and David Lifton's War Against the Critics of the Warren Commissionby Roger Feinmanhttp://22november1963.org.uk/roger-feinman-between-the-signal-and-the-noiseZelenskyy sensationally predicts Putin 'will die soon'https://www.foxnews.com/world/zelenskyy-sensationally-predicts-putin-will-die-soonBook Brief: The Signal and the NoiseWhy So Many Predictions Fail — But Some Don'thttps://clearpurpose.media/book-brief-the-signal-and-the-noise-3cee7501407823andMe files for bankruptcy, Anne Wojcicki steps down as CEOhttps://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/23andme-files-for-bankruptcy-anne-wojcicki-steps-down-as-ceo.htmlTexas lawmakers advance bill that makes it a crime for teachers to assign "Catcher in the Rye"https://popular.info/p/texas-lawmakers-advance-bill-that  Jon Stewart on Which Speech Is Free and Which Will Cost You in Trump's Americahttps://youtu.be/sNMdRzK9Nj0?si=7Mxb4e7tH7cH8c6l&t=942Crockett calls Texas Gov. Abbott ‘Governor Hot Wheels' https://thehill.com/homenews/5213119-republican-criticism-crockett-comments/‘F*** off': Danish official has message for Trump https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGCcIOF9qGERepublican truck driver Ed Durr ends bid to be New Jersey governor and backs Bill Spadeahttps://apnews.com/article/ed-durr-new-jersey-governor-c59d535d456bfa0467e4161943bf97fd---JFK DOCUMENT DUMP 2025What's going on with the Kennedy Center under Trump? And JFK DOC DUMP 2025https://apnews.com/article/kennedy-center-trump-what-to-https://know-4305e2c3d5611c4bfb1686d597727369https://newrepublic.com/post/192932/trump-plan-kennedy-center-leaked-audiohttps://www.eastbaytimes.com/2025/03/19/leaked-kennedy-center-audio-trumps-love-for-1980s-cats/JFK Assassination Records - 2025 Documents Release    March 18, 2025 - 7 PM EST Release: 32,000 pages (1,123 PDF files)    March 18, 2025 - 10:30 PM EST Release: 31,400 pages (1,059 PDF files)    March 20, 2025 - 9:30 PM EST Release: 13,700 pages (161 PDF files)    March 26, 2025 - 3:30 PM EST Release: 53 pages (16 PDF files)https://www.archives.gov/research/jfk/release-2025The Ochelli Effect 3-26-2025 Larry Hancock - Mike Swanson https://www.spreaker.com/episode/the-ochelli-effect-3-26-2025-larry-hancock-mike-swanson--651452183/26/25: EQUIS - JFK BLOWN AWAY, WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE TO SAY? W/ CHUCK OCHELLI https://groundzeroplus.com/3-26-25-equis-jfk-blown-away-what-else-do-i-have-to-say-w-chuck-ochelli/JFK Live Podcast: How Angleton Duped Congressional Investigators About th Surveillance of Oswaldhttps://jfkfacts.substack.com/p/jfk-live-podcast-how-angleton-duped?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=315632&post_id=160033915&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=68fjc&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email---SIGNAL,NOISE,RINSE,REPEAT  PATTERNS? From 'We All Make Mistakes' To 'Hegseth Should Be Stepping Down': Lawmakers React To War Plans LeakForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSbLpKY65k0“F—king Idiot”: Trump Team Considers Fall Guy for War Plans Group Chathttps://newrepublic.com/post/193122/trump-team-considers-fall-guy-war-plans-group-chatSen. Mike Warner speaks on 'pattern' of national security mishapshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/iTMofueJNRUMark Warner D-VA Intell Committee Vice Chair https://youtube.com/shorts/kZEMEerDJGc?si=jke1Nb_pcOH6tEh5Trump officials texted war plans to a group chat in a secure app that included a journalisthttps://apnews.com/article/war-plans-trump-hegseth-atlantic-230718a984911dd8663d59edbcb86f2a‘That's a lie': Atlantic editor Jeffrey Goldberg reacts to Hegseth's claims about group chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rJQwmGEcwmUPresident Trump on Atlantic's Editor-in-Chief Being Accidentally Included in a Signal Group Chathttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBfJLfiF7HcThe Trump Administration Accidentally Texted Me Its War Planshttps://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2025/03/trump-administration-accidentally-texted-me-its-war-plans/682151/ WATCH: Trump Reveals To Reporters His Take On JD Vance's Comments In The Leaked Signal Group ChatForbes Breaking Newshttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqE1TkOcqEQThe Atlantic editor explains why they released entire Signal chat of Hegseth's detailed attack planshttps://www.youtube.com/shorts/Xahace-QxxgSignal chat records must be preserved, federal judge tells Trump administrationhttps://www.axios.com/2025/03/27/signal-chat-case-judge-messagesPresident Trump speaks on Signal group chat leak https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XQgjupry_w&list=RDNS3XQgjupry_w&start_radio=1

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Joe Calnan and Kelly Ogle interview Tom Kloza about U.S. refineries and why Canadian oil is needed in the United States. // For the intro, Kelly and Joe talk about Doug Ford's surcharge on electricity exports to the U.S. and what it means for North-South electricity trade. // Guest Bio: - Tom Kloza is Global Head of Energy Analysis at OPIS // Host Bio: - Kelly Ogle is Managing Director of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute - Joe Calnan is an Energy Security Analyst and Energy Security Forum Manager at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute // Reading recommendations: - "The Bee Sting: A Novel", by Paul Murray: https://www.amazon.ca/Bee-Sting-Novel-Paul-Murray/dp/0374600309 - "The Nix", by Nathan Hill: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.ca/books/530893/the-nix-by-nathan-hill/9781101970348 - "The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail--but Some Don't", by Nate Silver: https://www.amazon.ca/Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions-Fail-but/dp/0143125087 // Interview recording Date: March 6, 2025 // Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. // Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

Harry Crane (@harrydcrane) explains how his model forecasted every state correctly in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Timestamps 0:00: Intro 1:37: Intro ends 3:38: Interview with Crane begins 3:39: When Crane began developing model 3:59: Crane's goals 4:43: Assumptions behind the model 5:12: Polls 6:35: Voter registration 6:56: Crane's Sept 1 forecast 9:21: Approval ratings 9:32: Right track/wrong track 10:58: Polling data 11:53: Crosstabs  13:31: Early voting 18:28: Prediction markets 30:17: Political bias 35:49: Focus groups 38:39: Responding to being wrong 39:06: Allan Lichtman 40:19: Nate Silver 40:51: Crane's model's vulnerabilities 42:59: Silver and Lichtman 49:44: Academic models 49:58: Assessing Crane's model 51:04: Follow Crane Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers  Trade on Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

Nate Silver (On the Edge, The Signal and the Noise, Baseball Between the Numbers) is a statistician, author, and founder of FiveThirtyEight. Nate joins the Armchair Expert to discuss his youthful aspirations for a starter job as US president with a promotion to baseball commissioner, how code-switching as a gay man of his cohort can translate to success, and defying the odds by quitting his first job to play online poker. Nate and Dax talk about learning statistical models as a hobbyist because academics don't have the street smarts, the phenomenon of sore winners in tech, and the adage that the more shabbily you show up for your first meeting the more trustworthy you are. Nate explains that the dopamine felt especially by men during a winning streak is effectively a narcotic, how figures like Sam Bankman-Fried are kind of degenerate gamblers at heart, and why the new alpha move in industry is just to trust your gut.Follow Armchair Expert on the Wondery App or wherever you get your podcasts. Watch new content on YouTube or listen to Armchair Expert early and ad-free by joining Wondery+ in the Wondery App, Apple Podcasts, or Spotify. Start your free trial by visiting wondery.com/links/armchair-expert-with-dax-shepard/ now.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Andrea Jones-Rooy! Comedian! Scientist! Podcaster! Circus performer! Friend! Delight! More! Want more information? Well, you've come to the right place: ABOUT ANDREA JONES-ROOY Ph.D.: Andrea Jones-Rooy is a unique voice who combines science with comedy to empower audiences of any education level to utilize data and tools accessible to all. AJR helps people learn to cut through the noise, better understand our world, and emboldens them to act. AJR holds a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan. Formerly a professor of data science at NYU and a quantitative researcher at FiveThirtyEight, Andrea speaks and trains globally at organizations that include Fortune 500s, tech companies, and the UN, on how to apply data science to their toughest problems. She currently hosts the podcast Behind the Data, and previously hosted the podcast Majoring in Everything. AJR is also a stand-up comedian and circus performer, although she has done neither at the UN (yet). ABOUT THE PODCAST "BEHIND THE DATA" (SEASON 2 COMING SOON) Data is all around us, and it powers a lot of our world, but where does it come from? Who collects it? How do we know if it's any good? Each week data scientist and standup comedian Andrea Jones-Rooy, Ph.D. brings you a new story about the humans and decisions behind important data that influences our lives - from political polls to measures of democracy, from tracking happiness around the world to powering AI. Join us on a journey to understand why making sense of the world depends not just on our ability to analyze it, but on the data we source in the first place. At the heart of any data that matters are real human stories about why we care about what we do.  For example, crime data describes ‘reported crime', which is different from (and less-than) ‘actual crime'. The two deviate to differing extents for different crimes - auto theft has a high rate of reporting due to insurance claims, while rape is horrifyingly underreported. Andrea Jones-Rooy will discuss how to navigate this churning ocean of data in which we are all swimming (whether we want to or not). Joined by weekly expert guests, Andrea will bring her signature engaging style to investigate the ways data on polling, crime, jobs, movies, fitness, medicine, democracy, and happiness are created, and help us to understand what we can and cannot (yet) learn from it. If you are affected by ANY of these subjects (you are), you're not going to want to miss this podcast! Season 1 guests include: Dhrumil Mehta, Journalism professor at Columbia University, formerly database journalist at Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight Ben Casselman, New York Times economics and business reporter Christie Aschwanden, science journalist and author of the NYT bestselling book, Good to Go: What the Athlete in All of Us Can Learn from the Strange Science of Discovery Dr. Steven Novella, clinical neurologist and host The Skeptics' Guide to the Universe podcast Walt Hickey, pulitzer prize winning data journalist, author You Are What You Watch: How Movies and TV Affect Everything, creator and writer Numlock News And more! Behind the Data is produced as part of the Daily Tech News Show (DTNS) network, which is dedicated to providing news about technology that is easy to understand. With a unique blend of ‘smartypants' comedy and actual science, Andrea seeks to help listeners understand how data shapes the world, and to teach everybody (not just scientists) to use data to inform their thinking. Remember, data doesn't have to be a four letter word! ABOUT THE PODCAST CONVERSATION BETWEEN ME AND ANDREA: It is fun! Please enjoy! And this is only the first HALF of our conversation. For part two, subscribe via Apple Podcasts OR just head on over to Patreon!

This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit wisdomofcrowds.liveOn the eve of Donald Trump's second inauguration, Shadi Hamid and Damir Marusic sit down to discuss the state of the Right and the Left in American politics. The conversation picks up where the last podcast episode left off, in a discussion about Damir's apparent rejuvenation in the wake of Trump's victory. Given that he didn't vote for Trump — in fact, he didn't vote for anybody — why is Damir smiling?Shadi suggests that “Democrats needed this defeat to learn important lessons.” Damir is not so sure that they will learn them. But one of the reasons he is giddy is that they will get their comeuppance for the political “villainy” of Russiagate, the Biden health coverup and other misguided Democratic gambits. Shadi, in turn, notes that many of his center-left acquaintances seem surprisingly at peace with the new government, and ready to entertain new ideas. “Very rarely did I hear despair,” he reports.Both Shadi and Damir go deeper by asking about the status quo of the Left and the Right. Damir thinks that Trump has “cleared the field” of the conservative movement's Reaganite past, and that the Right is now ready to debate issues in a more realistic way. Shadi laments that the Left has become boring by being too certain that they are correct about everything: they are the party of “facts, data and progress,” and think that they have “resolved all the big ideological debates.”In our bonus content for paid subscribers, Damir discusses what he means by “tragic liberalism,” Shadi explains why he thinks atheism is over, and our hosts discuss the best and worst things that could happen during the second Trump presidency.Required Reading and Listening:* Damir, “We'll Have to Rethink Everything” (WoC).* Shadi, “Trump's ‘madman theory' worked in Gaza when all else failed” (Washington Post).* Christine, “Zuck is the Zeitgeist” (WoC).* Santiago questions Damir about his newfound conservatism (WoC).* Tara Isabella Burton, “Believe for Your Own Sake, Not for ‘the West'” (WoC).* Ezra Klein and Nate Silver on “peak Trump” (X).* Elon Musk is an ‘Evil Person,' Steve Bannon Says” (New York Times).* “Corporate America embraces a new era of conservatism under Donald Trump” (Financial Times).* “How the White House Functioned With a Diminished Biden in Charge” (Wall Street Journal).* David Brooks, “Why People Are Fleeing Blue Cities for Red States” (New York Times).* Ross Douthat and Reihan Salam, Grand New Party: How Republicans Can Win the Working Class and Save the American Dream (Amazon).This post is part of our collaboration with the University of Pittsburgh's Center for Governance and Markets.Wisdom of Crowds is a platform challenging premises and understanding first principles on politics and culture. Join us!

Rutgers statistician Harry Crane critiques Nate Silver's model. Timestamps 1:49: Intro ends 3:55: Interview begins 4:08: Crane's bio 8:50: Nate Silver 10:42: Critique of Silver's model 12:42: Silver's criticism of prediction markets 23:57: Silver as tout 25:04: Silver's model 27:48: Simulations in Silver's model 30:51: 50-50 election forecasts Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter/X @ssgamblers Bet on elections at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. Attend our forecasting and prediction markets meetup in Washington DC on 23 January 2025. RSVP here: https://partiful.com/e/tgYHaoevQ78X7hpnDUHA

Wes, Eneasz, and David keep the rationalist community informed about what's going on outside of the rationalist communitySupport us on Substack!News discussed:Early signs look like congestion pricing is reducing traffic in ManhattanTrump sentenced to “unconditional discharge”Dockworkers union has a tentative dealFIRE to defend pollster in Trump lawsuit over outlier election pollSome accounts criticized H1B visas and Elon retaliated by removing their verificationAt least 24 people killed in LA firesOver 12,000 homes and businesses burnedNewsome executive order waives CEQA and Coastal Act requirements for rebuildingThere will be no post-blitz boomMayor of LA ensures very little rebuilding will happenThe state of California got 6 month's advance warning from the best risk-assessment professionalsEvery time an insurance company wants to raise rates for automobiles or homes, they have to have a public hearing and an elected insurance commissioner has to approve.1600 policies cancelled in the Palisades over the summer (major devastation area).FAIR testified it only had about $385 million, LA fires could have up to $24B of exposureNewsome bans insurance companies from not renewing policiesBiden blocked sale of US Steel to Nippon SteelBlinken, Yellen, and many other advisors against the blockNippon Steel and US Steel filing suit to challengeFederal judge found that requiring teachers to use preferred pronouns violates 1AAlso struck down the Biden administration's unconstitutional Title IX rulesTrudeau is donezoCFPB banned medical debt from lowering credit scoresMeta going based for Trump yearsFired chief diversity officer, ended diversity goals, stopped prioritizing minority-owned businessesRemoved tampons from mens bathroomsThe Sadam Statues are falling - HananiaPretty good Nate Silver piece on thisTik Tok is probably going to shut down on January 19thNews You Can Ignore“Grooming Gangs”?. (counter: Free Press?)Elon Musk bought his Path of Exile account and his ranking in Diablo 4 is out of under 1000 players (Trace called it)Happy News!Amazon moving forward with WarHammer 40K series starring and lead by Henry Cavil.WarHammer is For RomanticsUS govt funding bird flu vaccine research and stocking up on vaccinesThe Bukele Administration has turned the country from the most murderous in Latin America to the safestWeather nerds found out where the water went during California's drought!Minnesota Summer Camp for HIV-Positive Kids Closes Down–Because There Aren't Any MoreScientists drilled a 1.2M year old ice core out of AntarcticaTroop DeploymentEneasz - I have just released a short story collection titled Dear GromGot something to say? Come chat with us on the Bayesian Conspiracy Discord or email us at themindkillerpodcast@gmail.com. Say something smart and we'll mention you on the next show!Follow us!RSS: http://feeds.feedburner.com/themindkillerGoogle: https://play.google.com/music/listen#/ps/Iqs7r7t6cdxw465zdulvwikhekmPocket Casts: https://pca.st/vvcmifu6Stitcher: https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/the-mind-killerApple: Intro/outro music: On Sale by Golden Duck Orchestra This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit mindkiller.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Cruse (@predoctit) argues that Pete Hegseth, Trump's nominee for Secretary of Defense, is much less likely to get confirmed than the current markets prices indicate. Dr. Cruse and Pratik Chougule also discuss the universe of Republican senators who are willing to vote against Trump nominees. Timestamps 0:00: Pratik introduces episode 0:11: Thune whip count on Hegseth 8:05: Intro ends 10:06: Interview with Cruse begins 10:42: Trump nominees' confirmation prospects 11:24: Democratic Senators 12:11: Rubio 15:44: Most controversial nominees 16:27: Hegseth scandals 31:14: Factors in likelihood of confirmation 33:46: Republican Senators 46:41: Influence of Hegseth markets 46:56: Sexual harrassment allegations Follow Star Spangled Gamblers on Twitter @ssgamblers  Trade on Hegseth's nomination at Polymarket.com, the world's largest prediction market. https://polymarket.com/event/of-senate-votes-to-confirm-hegseth-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804670342 https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed/will-pete-hegseth-be-confirmed-as-secretary-of-defense?tid=1736804692254 https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-be-trumps-defense-secretary/will-pete-hegseth-be-trumps-defense-secretary?tid=1736804733018 Join us for our first DC Forecasting & Prediction Markets meetup of the year! This will be a very casual meetup to meet and socialize with others interested in forecasting, prediction markets, political gambling, sports betting, or anything else relating to predicting the future. Location is TBD but you'll be notified when we've finalized a venue. Last-minute/onsite walk-in RSVPs here on this Partiful event page are welcomed! Who are we? We are prediction market traders on Manifold (and other prediction markets like PredictIt, Kalshi, and Polymarket), forecasters (e.g. on Metaculus and Good Judgment Open), sports bettors (e.g. on FanDuel, DraftKings, and other sportsbooks), consumers of forecasting (or related) content (e.g. Star Spangled Gamblers, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, Scott Alexander's Astral Codex Ten), effective altruists, rationalists, and data scientists. Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend this month: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-people-will-attend-a-forec-OzPZILyc5C?play=true Forecast on Manifold how many people will attend meetups this year: https://manifold.markets/dglid/how-many-attendees-will-there-be-at?play=true This meetup is hosted by the Forecasting Meetup Network. Help us grow the forecasting community to positively influence the future by supporting us with an upvote, comment, or pledge on Manifund: https://manifund.org/projects/forecasting-meetup-network---washington-dc-pilot-4-meetups Get notified whenever a new meetup is scheduled and learn more about the Forecasting Meetup Network here: https://bit.ly/forecastingmeetupnetwork Join our Discord to connect with others in the community between monthly meetups: https://discord.com/invite/hFn3yukSwv

"A shameless recycling of existing content to drive additional audience engagement on the cheap… or the single best, most valuable, and most insight-dense episode we put out in the entire year, depending on how you want to look at it." — Rob WiblinIt's that magical time of year once again — highlightapalooza! Stick around for one top bit from each episode, including:How to use the microphone on someone's mobile phone to figure out what password they're typing into their laptopWhy mercilessly driving the New World screwworm to extinction could be the most compassionate thing humanity has ever doneWhy evolutionary psychology doesn't support a cynical view of human nature but actually explains why so many of us are intensely sensitive to the harms we cause to othersHow superforecasters and domain experts seem to disagree so much about AI risk, but when you zoom in it's mostly a disagreement about timingWhy the sceptics are wrong and you will want to use robot nannies to take care of your kids — and also why despite having big worries about the development of AGI, Carl Shulman is strongly against efforts to pause AI research todayHow much of the gender pay gap is due to direct pay discrimination vs other factorsHow cleaner wrasse fish blow the mirror test out of the waterWhy effective altruism may be too big a tent to work wellHow we could best motivate pharma companies to test existing drugs to see if they help cure other diseases — something they currently have no reason to bother with…as well as 27 other top observations and arguments from the past year of the show.Check out the full transcript and episode links on the 80,000 Hours website.Remember that all of these clips come from the 20-minute highlight reels we make for every episode, which are released on our sister feed, 80k After Hours. So if you're struggling to keep up with our regularly scheduled entertainment, you can still get the best parts of our conversations there.It has been a hell of a year, and we can only imagine next year is going to be even weirder — but Luisa and Rob will be here to keep you company as Earth hurtles through the galaxy to a fate as yet unknown.Enjoy, and look forward to speaking with you in 2025!Chapters:Rob's intro (00:00:00)Randy Nesse on the origins of morality and the problem of simplistic selfish-gene thinking (00:02:11)Hugo Mercier on the evolutionary argument against humans being gullible (00:07:17)Meghan Barrett on the likelihood of insect sentience (00:11:26)Sébastien Moro on the mirror test triumph of cleaner wrasses (00:14:47)Sella Nevo on side-channel attacks (00:19:32)Zvi Mowshowitz on AI sleeper agents (00:22:59)Zach Weinersmith on why space settlement (probably) won't make us rich (00:29:11)Rachel Glennerster on pull mechanisms to incentivise repurposing of generic drugs (00:35:23)Emily Oster on the impact of kids on women's careers (00:40:29)Carl Shulman on robot nannies (00:45:19)Nathan Labenz on kids and artificial friends (00:50:12)Nathan Calvin on why it's not too early for AI policies (00:54:13)Rose Chan Loui on how control of OpenAI is independently incredibly valuable and requires compensation (00:58:08)Nick Joseph on why he's a big fan of the responsible scaling policy approach (01:03:11)Sihao Huang on how the US and UK might coordinate with China (01:06:09)Nathan Labenz on better transparency about predicted capabilities (01:10:18)Ezra Karger on what explains forecasters' disagreements about AI risks (01:15:22)Carl Shulman on why he doesn't support enforced pauses on AI research (01:18:58)Matt Clancy on the omnipresent frictions that might prevent explosive economic growth (01:25:24)Vitalik Buterin on defensive acceleration (01:29:43)Annie Jacobsen on the war games that suggest escalation is inevitable (01:34:59)Nate Silver on whether effective altruism is too big to succeed (01:38:42)Kevin Esvelt on why killing every screwworm would be the best thing humanity ever did (01:42:27)Lewis Bollard on how factory farming is philosophically indefensible (01:46:28)Bob Fischer on how to think about moral weights if you're not a hedonist (01:49:27)Elizabeth Cox on the empirical evidence of the impact of storytelling (01:57:43)Anil Seth on how our brain interprets reality (02:01:03)Eric Schwitzgebel on whether consciousness can be nested (02:04:53)Jonathan Birch on our overconfidence around disorders of consciousness (02:10:23)Peter Godfrey-Smith on uploads of ourselves (02:14:34)Laura Deming on surprising things that make mice live longer (02:21:17)Venki Ramakrishnan on freezing cells, organs, and bodies (02:24:46)Ken Goldberg on why low fault tolerance makes some skills extra hard to automate in robots (02:29:12)Sarah Eustis-Guthrie on the ups and downs of founding an organisation (02:34:04)Dean Spears on the cost effectiveness of kangaroo mother care (02:38:26)Cameron Meyer Shorb on vaccines for wild animals (02:42:53)Spencer Greenberg on personal principles (02:46:08)Producing and editing: Keiran HarrisAudio engineering: Ben Cordell, Milo McGuire, Simon Monsour, and Dominic ArmstrongVideo editing: Simon MonsourTranscriptions: Katy Moore

What are the key leadership insights and skills needed as we move into 2025? In this end-of-year episode, Kevin answers listener questions about leadership trends, challenges, and reflections on his latest book, Flexible Leadership: Navigate Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence. Kevin believes that leaders must move beyond rigid leadership styles to embrace flexibility, adapting their approach based on context, team needs, and organizational goals. He also highlights the importance of mindset, skill set, and habit set for leaders. While skills provide the tools for leadership, mindset ensures alignment with goals, and habit set ensures sustained application. Listen For 00:00 Introduction 00:44 Joining the Live Experience 01:06 Flexible Leadership Book Promo 01:57 Introduction of Lisa Ritter-McMahan 02:59 Soft Skills Leaders Need 05:21 Transitioning from Peer to Leader 07:17 Hierarchical Leadership in Government Agencies 09:00 Highlight from Flexible Leadership Book 11:13 What Excites Kevin About His New Book 12:28 Balancing Empathy and Organizational Goals 14:55 Professional Development: Inside vs. Outside Work Hours 17:30 Mindset, Skill Set, and Habit Set for Leaders 20:14 Importance of Flexibility in Organizations 22:32 Clear Communication in Remote Work 25:58 Kevin's Reading Process for Podcasts 30:08 Memorable Moments from 2024 Guests 33:24 What Kevin Does for Fun 34:48 Kevin's Current Reading Recommendation 36:04 Closing Remarks Book Recommendations Flexible Leadership: Navigate Uncertainty and Lead with Confidence by Kevin Eikenberry From Bud to Boss: Secrets to a Successful Transition to Remarkable Leadership by Kevin Eikenberry and Guy Harris  Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke  On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything by Nate Silver  Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman  The Case for Good Jobs: How Great Companies Bring Dignity, Pay, and Meaning to Everyone's Work by Zeynep Ton  How to Work with and Lead People Not Like You by Kelly McDonald  Like this? A Guide to Excellence with Tom Peters  This is Strategy with Seth Godin Join Our Community If you want to view our live podcast episodes, hear about new releases, or chat with others who enjoy this podcast join one of our communities below. Join the Facebook Group Join the LinkedIn Group   Leave a Review If you liked this conversation, we'd be thrilled if you'd let others know by leaving a review on Apple Podcasts. Here's a quick guide for posting a review. Review on Apple: https://remarkablepodcast.com/itunes    Podcast Better! Sign up with Libsyn and get up to 2 months free! Use promo code: RLP  

SEASON 3 EPISODE 75: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN Special Edition (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Some time over Thanksgiving in Nantucket the light bulb went off over Joe Biden's head and he finally realized that no, the norms and traditions and institutions to which he and most of the rest of us have dedicated our lives did NOT miraculously re-grow, did NOT suddenly spring, fully restored and intact, from the ground. He saw that not only was his son about to go to prison because of his own foolish decision to not interfere with an enfeebled Department of Justice, and because of the dictator it let get away, who would now aim his DOJ at Hunter Biden - and Joe Biden - and anybody else - for personal revenge. The President figured this out and pulled his son out of harm's way. And much of he left attacked him for it. They are Morons. I don't care about Hunter Biden, particularly. I care about the fact that we are 48 days away from a nascent military dictatorship taking over this government, supported by an unknown percentage of the population that wants to see Hunter and Joe Biden hanging from construction cranes parading through the streets, and wants to see Trump in power for life. A We JUST got one more guy out of their sights and we JUST shoved one more plotline up Trump, and up Kash Patel and Pete Hegseth and Stephen Miller and whichever other lunatics Trump wants to take over the asylum. And countless liberals – and anti-Trumpers – think this will actually provide cover for Trump pardoning the January 6thinsurrectionists because apparently for the last ten years they have been hallucinating and thinking Trump has ever bothered to seek cover for anything. Or they think we should be "better" than them. The Trumpists are planning to put us in camps. I don't care if we are better than them or worse than them or monstrous to them. If somebody's going to go to camps, it ain't going to be us, it's got to be them. End of debate. In addition to explaining why this was not just the right decision but should be a template of thousands of further pardons, permit me to excoriate a bunch of the clowns who cannot see the forest for the trees. Or the fact that the forest is on fire. And then for giggles we have the moronic comments of Nate Silver and Dinesh D'Souza, complaining about pardons when he himself got an undeserved pardon. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Trump won, Silicon Valley is Moneyballing everything, and the worldview of the most famous political nerd on Earth... is eating the world. But Nate Silver still wants to prove people wrong: on what the 2016 and 2024 elections really told us; his falling out with the Left; and how tech billionaires are more irrational than they like to admit. Also: Elon Musk totaling a car, Peter Thiel believing in destiny, and Neymar playing poker. Buy Nate Silver's new book: https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/ Subscribe to Silver Bulletin: https://www.natesilver.net/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 1: 3:00pm- On Tuesday night, Donald Trump announced that he has selected Army Combat Veteran & Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense. There were also rumors circulating that Marco Rubio may not ultimately be Trump's selection for Secretary of State. 3:05pm- RESTART THE SHOW! Donald Trump officially announces that Senator Marco Rubio is his selection to serve as Secretary of State. In a statement, the president-elect wrote: “Marco is a Highly Respected Leader, and a very powerful Voice for Freedom. He will be a strong Advocate for our Nation, a true friend to our Allies, and a fearless Warrior who will never back down to our adversaries. I look forward to working with Marco to Make America, and the World, Safe and Great Again!” 3:10pm- Who might Governor Ron DeSantis pick to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate? According to Axios, Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) is pushing for Lara Trump—Donald Trump's daughter-in-law and co-chair of the RNC. However, Politico suggests the front runner is likely James Uthmeier—DeSantis's current Chief of Staff. 3:15pm- More breaking news…RESTART THE SHOW AGAIN! Donald Trump officially announces Tulsi Gabbard is his choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He wrote in a statement: “For over two decades, Tulsi has fought for our Country and the Freedoms of all Americans. As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties - She is now a proud Republican! I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength. Tulsi will make us all proud!” 3:30pm- On his Truth Social Account, Donald Trump wrote: “It is my Great Honor to announce that Congressman Matt Gaetz, of Florida, is hereby nominated to be The Attorney General of the United States. Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice. Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System.” 3:40pm- Does Matt Gaetz have enough support to get confirmed as U.S. Attorney General? Nate Silver, PolyMarket odds, and others on social media suggest it might not be a foregone conclusion that the U.S. Senate will confirm his appointment.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Episode (11/13/2024): 3:00pm- On Tuesday night, Donald Trump announced that he has selected Army Combat Veteran & Fox News host Pete Hegseth to serve as Secretary of Defense. There were also rumors circulating that Marco Rubio may not ultimately be Trump's selection for Secretary of State. 3:05pm- RESTART THE SHOW! Donald Trump officially announces that Senator Marco Rubio is his selection to serve as Secretary of State. In a statement, the president-elect wrote: “Marco is a Highly Respected Leader, and a very powerful Voice for Freedom. He will be a strong Advocate for our Nation, a true friend to our Allies, and a fearless Warrior who will never back down to our adversaries. I look forward to working with Marco to Make America, and the World, Safe and Great Again!” 3:10pm- Who might Governor Ron DeSantis pick to replace Marco Rubio in the U.S. Senate? According to Axios, Senator Katie Britt (R-AL) is pushing for Lara Trump—Donald Trump's daughter-in-law and co-chair of the RNC. However, Politico suggests the front runner is likely James Uthmeier—DeSantis's current Chief of Staff. 3:15pm- More breaking news…RESTART THE SHOW AGAIN! Donald Trump officially announces Tulsi Gabbard is his choice to serve as Director of National Intelligence (DNI). He wrote in a statement: “For over two decades, Tulsi has fought for our Country and the Freedoms of all Americans. As a former Candidate for the Democrat Presidential Nomination, she has broad support in both Parties - She is now a proud Republican! I know Tulsi will bring the fearless spirit that has defined her illustrious career to our Intelligence Community, championing our Constitutional Rights, and securing Peace through Strength. Tulsi will make us all proud!” 3:30pm- On his Truth Social Account, Donald Trump wrote: “It is my Great Honor to announce that Congressman Matt Gaetz, of Florida, is hereby nominated to be The Attorney General of the United States. Matt is a deeply gifted and tenacious attorney, trained at the William & Mary College of Law, who has distinguished himself in Congress through his focus on achieving desperately needed reform at the Department of Justice. Few issues in America are more important than ending the partisan Weaponization of our Justice System.” 3:40pm- Does Matt Gaetz have enough support to get confirmed as U.S. Attorney General? Nate Silver, PolyMarket odds, and others on social media suggest it might not be a foregone conclusion that the U.S. Senate will confirm his appointment. 4:00pm- On Wednesday, president-elect Donald Trump met with President Joe Biden in the White House Oval Office to discuss administration transition plans. 4:15pm- CNN Has Already Begun to Attack Tulsi Gabbard. CNN host Boris Sanchez baselessly suggested that Tulsi Gabbard might be a Russian asset—and asked Rep. Kevin Cramer (R-ND) if he was comfortable with Gabbard having access to the nation's most sensitive secrets as Director of National Intelligence. 4:30pm- If some of Donald Trump's cabinet picks struggle to get confirmed in the U.S. Senate, could he use recess appointments? Jess Bravin of The Wall Street Journal writes of recess appointments: “The Senate wasn't conceived to continuously be in session, and the vagaries of 18th-century communication and transportation meant that weeks could go by before lawmakers could be reconvened for an emergency. To keep the government staffed, the Constitution provides that the president may fill vacancies while the Senate is in recess, but those commissions expire at the end of the next session of Congress. That means a recess appointee can't hold office longer than two years, the length of a congressional session.” You can read more about recess appointments here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-recess-appointments-senate-179a16f7 4:45pm- While appearing on a podcast, Sunny Hostin revealed that she thought she was asking Kamala Harris softball questions during the Vice Pr ...

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 2: 4:05pm- On Monday night, Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris will host a campaign rally at the Philadelphia Museum of Art—which will include a free concert featuring Lady Gaga, DJ Jazzy Jeff, and Ricky Martin. Oprah Winfrey and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will also be there. Enjoy the traffic, Philadelphia!! 4:10pm- In a New York Times editorial, polling expert Nate Silver said his “gut says Trump” will win the 2024 presidential election. He also noted that pollsters may be “herding toward a false consensus” and that, according to his model, “there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.” You can read the full editorial here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html 4:15pm- Over the weekend, Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register released bombshell polling data indicating that Kamala Harris is beating Donald Trump in Iowa—a state considered to be comfortably red. But is the poll simply an outlier? Selzer has a history of underestimating Republican support, and she incorrectly predicted the outcome of Iowa's 2018 gubernatorial race. Additional evidence Selzer's polling might be inaccurate: newly released Emerson polling data suggests Trump is leading by 10-points. 4:30pm- Congresswoman Kat Cammack—U.S. Representative for Florida's 3rd Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to preview Election Day and to discuss her tireless efforts campaigning throughout Pennsylvania on behalf of the Trump-Vance campaign. 4:50pm- BREAKING NEWS: According to the Associated Press a Pennsylvania Judge has ruled that Elon Musk can continue to run his $1 million a day sweepstakes to encourage voter registration.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Episode (11/04/2024): 3:05pm- What Are the Pollsters Saying? The New York Times released its final poll prior to tomorrow's Presidential Election and, unsurprisingly, the race is a coin toss. The poll reveals Kamala Harris has small leads in Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Meanwhile, Donald Trump leads in Arizona—with statistical ties in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Real Clear Politics polling averages show Trump winning in 5 of the 7 most critical swing states. And The Hill's Election Forecast indicates Trump has a 54% likelihood of winning the election. 3:20pm- Donald Trump Jr.—Executive Vice President at The Trump Organization—joins The Rich Zeoli Show LIVE from his father's campaign rally in Reading, Pennsylvania to preview Election Day! 3:40pm- On Monday, Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump held a campaign rally in Reading, Pennsylvania. 4:05pm- On Monday night, Democratic Presidential Nominee Kamala Harris will host a campaign rally at the Philadelphia Museum of Art—which will include a free concert featuring Lady Gaga, DJ Jazzy Jeff, and Ricky Martin. Oprah Winfrey and Second Gentleman Doug Emhoff will also be there. Enjoy the traffic, Philadelphia!! 4:10pm- In a New York Times editorial, polling expert Nate Silver said his “gut says Trump” will win the 2024 presidential election. He also noted that pollsters may be “herding toward a false consensus” and that, according to his model, “there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.” You can read the full editorial here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html 4:15pm- Over the weekend, Ann Selzer of the Des Moines Register released bombshell polling data indicating that Kamala Harris is beating Donald Trump in Iowa—a state considered to be comfortably red. But is the poll simply an outlier? Selzer has a history of underestimating Republican support, and she incorrectly predicted the outcome of Iowa's 2018 gubernatorial race. Additional evidence Selzer's polling might be inaccurate: newly released Emerson polling data suggests Trump is leading by 10-points. 4:30pm- Congresswoman Kat Cammack—U.S. Representative for Florida's 3rd Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to preview Election Day and to discuss her tireless efforts campaigning throughout Pennsylvania on behalf of the Trump-Vance campaign. 4:50pm- BREAKING NEWS: According to the Associated Press a Pennsylvania Judge has ruled that Elon Musk can continue to run his $1 million a day sweepstakes to encourage voter registration. 5:00pm- Christopher Ruddy—CEO & Editor in Chief of Newsmax Media—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to preview the latest trends in key battleground states and Newsmax's planned initial public offering. 5:15pm- Jimmy Failla—Host of “Fox News Saturday with Jimmy Failla” & Author of the book, “Cancel Culture Dictionary”—joins The Rich Zeoli Show for a very exciting announcement: 1210 WPHT's next Politics & Pints will feature Jimmy Failla and Rich Zeoli on Wednesday November 13th in Media, PA. For tickets and information, visit: https://www.audacy.com/1210wpht/events/politics-and-pints-with-jimmy-failla 5:40pm- CNN's Outfront with host Erin Burnett and Andy Kaczynski—KFile Senior Editor—reports that the Harris-Walz campaign is using conflicting messages to appeal to Jewish voters in Pennsylvania and Arab voters in Michigan. 6:00pm- Mainstream Media Fearmongering. Rich points out that (very unbiased journalist) George Stephanopoulos and Johnathan Karl both suggested there could be dire consequences for American democracy if the wrong candidate wins. 6:30pm- Curtis Bashaw—Republican Candidate for U.S. Senate in New Jersey—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss his race against Democrat Senate candidate Andy Kim. Can Bashaw become the first Republican to win a U.S. Senate seat since 1972? You can learn more about Bashaw's campaign he ...

Election Day is tomorrow! More than 75 million people have already voted. And a slew of new polls released over the weekend show good news for Vice President Kamala Harris' campaign. Naturally, former President Donald Trump responded by railing against the polls at his rallies, even though polls aren't predictions, and both candidates have a good shot at winning Tuesday. Nate Silver, polling guru and author of the Substack newsletter “Silver Bulletin,” stops by to tell us what the polls are — and aren't — telling us ahead of Election Day.Also on the show: Abbas Alawieh, a Michigan resident and co-founder of the ‘Uncommitted' movement,' talks about how his fellow activists are feeling as they cast their ballots. And Crooked Correspondent Josie Duffy Rice breaks down election lawsuits in Georgia.Show Notes:Learn more about The Uncommitted Movement – https://shorturl.at/Qe3UXCheck out Nate Silver's polling – https://www.natesilver.net/Subscribe to the What A Day Newsletter – https://tinyurl.com/3kk4nyz8What A Day – YouTube – https://www.youtube.com/@whatadaypodcastFollow us on Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/crookedmedia/For a transcript of this episode, please visit crooked.com/whataday

SERIES 3 EPISODE 64: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Yeah, I heard it too. I heard him he "shouldn't have left" the White House when his term ended. And I heard him say AT his rally that he wouldn't mind people shooting at the reporters COVERING his rally. And I guess it's shocking. Except he's been saying these things (a little more coded) since 2015, and he said the shooting thing about Liz Cheney last Thursday night. And after all he is going through what the shrinks call “disinhibition” AT the rallies where he loses all sense of what he should say in private not public. But that's not what got me. I heard something I have never heard before. WHEN he said he wouldn't mind people shooting the "fake news," he said he wouldn't mind them shooting THROUGH "the fake news" - THROUGH it - AT him. Doesn't that sound kind of… what's the word? Suicidal? Plus: I understand that we are inside the 48 hour bubble before the election and the pressure is like 887 Atmospheric Units and our rage against this creature and his cult that wants to burn this country to the ground – burn this world to the ground – and our amazement that there is ANYBODY voting for him – that RAGE is at unbearable levels – but… didn't he sound kinda dead yesterday? At one point he was inaudible. At another, in North Carolina, he thought he was in Pennsylvania. Throughout, he sounded exactly like Hal the Computer in the movie “2001” when they unplugged him. PRACTICALLY SPEAKING on the eve of the election, the polls continue to support a Harris victory (size TBD) and this shocking poll where she's up by 3 in Iowa hides an even more shocking number (she's ahead by 20 among women in the whitest part of the midwest). And the reaction to the pollster who published this 21 point swing from June tells you all you need to know about polling. They have previously insisted Ann Selser was an immortal. Now they're saying she's making the rest of them look bad by not tailoring her poll to fit their narrative. B-Block (30:33) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: A Trumpist has vowed to "castrate himself on camera" if Harris wins Iowa (if you're a Trumpist, haven't you already castrated yourself?). Chris Cillizza 2024 mocks everybody who didn't buy the conventional wisdom about the vice presidency (evidently including Chris Cillizza 2020, who had disproved it), and courtesy Tim Alberta in The Atlantic, we find a new reason to hate Trump. This is the real reason he's so mad Biden dropped out. Trump thought he had the perfect nickname for the President - and it's appalling. C-Block (37:48) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: I call it The Annual Day I Get Trapped Inside My Home Day. You know it - and may have seen it on TV yesterday - as "The New York City Marathon."  See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

 At the moment of this episode's release, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck in election polls. How do you embrace risk, make informed decisions, and be prepared for any possible changes? In this episode, FiveThirtyEight founder and author of “On the Edge” Nate Silver discusses with Reason magazine's Editor-at-Large Nick Gillespie his thoughts on which direction the 2024 election may go and the ways risk-takers cultivate power and drive change.  Our Guest: Nate Silver, Leading Political Forecaster; Best-Selling Author; Founder and Former Editor-in-Chief of FiveThirtyEight    Nick Gillespie, Editor-at-Large of Reason, is the guest moderator.    Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

SERIES 3 EPISODE 59: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: "GARBAGE" IS STICKING TO THE TEFLON DON AS SCANDAL WORSENS; 'COMEDIAN' WANTED TO CALL KAMALA HARRIS THE C-WORD:  The Madison Square Garden “Puerto Rico Is Garbage” disaster is not only NOT going away; it is still getting worse, with the news that Trump staffers VETTED that statement AND the tasteless reference to Latinos entering the country and the rest of the Tony Hinchcliffe comments and Hinchcliffe's script originally included a line in which he dropped a c-word in describing Kamala Harris. The news site “The Bulwark” is reporting that, and that Trump staffers directed Hinchcliffe to take it out… BUT that they missed the anti-Hispanic material or as they have now claimed Hinchcliffe ad libbed all that even though the video clearly shows him reading his material off the same teleprompter everybody else used. Day three of Trump's self-immolation among Hispanic voters who make up twelve percent of the electorate – one WEEK before the election and no sign that it – like every previous racist Trump controversy – is actually abating. STILL the lead story at the New York Times – at one point it had SIX front page stories – AND at the Washington Post – AND on the Fox News talk shows AND at the Wall Street Journal AND at the ultra-conservative Washington Examiner AND when the Trump campaign's defense is ‘well at least he didn't call her a rhymes-with-bunt like he planned' they have actually stepped neck high in it, especially since the pro-Trump PAC run by Elon Musk posted tweets based on the C-Word. Literally, says “The C- Word.” Even the fig leaf usually accepted by the bothsidesist media looking for a way – SOME way, ANY way – to avoid slamming Trump – has opened up a whole new line of stories: the disingenuous statement from the conveniently Latina spokesperson disavowing the jokes only served to spin off a series of reports on all the OTHER remarks Hinchcliffe and others made Sunday at Madison Square Garden: from the line about African-Americans and watermelons and the line calling the Vice President's staff “pimp handlers.” And the story is still expanding. Now Joe Rogan and Robert F. Kennedy Junior have been sucked under. AND AS THE VIBE KEEPS SHIFTING TOWARDS HARRIS there are plenty of different flavors of insurrection to worry about but a Contingent Election isn't one of them. B-Block (21:05) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Trump has a "Sir" story. The Border Patrol agents said he was better on the border than Lincoln. The Don't-Cancel-Your-WaPo-Subscription crowd is missing the point: don't criticize angry ex-customers. If you can, join them. And it's not enough to bully reporters into sanewashing Trump, you must reward them. Thus CNN's embarrassment Dana Bash is profiled in The Wall Street Journal and we are told: This Is Her Moment. C-Block (33:20) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: If Trump ruined Giuliani's life, why was Rudy at Trump's self-immolation at Madison Square Garden? Well among other things I believe Rudy now lives in a hallway at Penn Station so it was a quick commute. Plus, you may not have known but Rudy's been nuts since at least the mid-90's, as I'll tell you.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sam Harris speaks with Nate Silver about cultural attitudes toward risk and the state of American politics. They discuss the erosion of trust in liberal institutions, polling and political narratives, different camps of cultural elites, the influence of Silicon Valley, Peter Thiel, Elon Musk, Sam Bankman-Fried and the fall of FTX, Gell-Mann amnesia, Christopher Rufo, why Kamala Harris can't admit to having changed her views, a problem with strict utilitarianism, AI and existential risk, what people misunderstand about election forecasting, which news events have affected the 2024 race, how current polls might be misleading, public vs. private polling, undecided and marginal voters, Gen Z, the gender divide, the likelihood that Trump won't accept the election results if he loses, election integrity in the swing states, the chance of a landslide, the prospect of public unrest, and other topics. If the Making Sense podcast logo in your player is BLACK, you can SUBSCRIBE to gain access to all full-length episodes at samharris.org/subscribe. Learning how to train your mind is the single greatest investment you can make in life. That's why Sam Harris created the Waking Up app. From rational mindfulness practice to lessons on some of life's most important topics, join Sam as he demystifies the practice of meditation and explores the theory behind it.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 57: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) BULLETIN: After the Wall Street Journal's stunning story linking Elon Musk to Vladimir Putin and other members of the Russian dictatorship, it is no longer feasible nor safe to permit Elon Musk to continue to have access to any project involving the government of the United States, nor for Musk to remain at large in this country. The government should sever all connections with him immediately and seize all his technological assets including SpaceX, StarLink, and Twitter-X – and if need be, detain him, deport him, or if it descends to that level, arrest him. The safety of the nation may depend upon it.  A team of journal writers led by Thomas Grove has now reported – to quote them - “Elon Musk, the world's richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022. The discussions, confirmed by several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials, touch on personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions.”  The Journal cites two sources who say that Musk's relationship was more than just conversational. They claim Putin asked Musk to NOT activate his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan, as quote “a favor to Chinese leader Shee Jinping.” That, the Journal reports, happened late last year and its source is a former Russian intelligence officer. The Journal further reports one of Musk's primary contacts is a Putin henchman just cited by the Department of Justice as the agent behind more than 30 websites designed to spread disinformation about Ukraine and the U.S. election - some of it via Musk's Twitter-X platform. (7:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: Why is Kamala Harris in Texas tonight? I mean, yes, Colin Allred has a longshot's chance of upsetting Ted Cruz and a Democratic Infomercial starring Beyonce is a national event not a local one. But taking the time from stumping in a battleground state would, on the surface, be something Trump would do (and will do, Sunday, in New York, unless he gets lost on the way to Madison Square Garden). Strategically the Harris Texas trip makes no sense - unless... Unless her internal polling confirms two things that are beginning to show up in the early voting data and polling, plus the simulations of the Electoral College vote. It appears that even in states where Republican early voters outnumber the Democrats, she's winning by 55-45 (or better). And the forecasters are suggesting that as close as the swing states look they make actually all go to one of the two candidates, though they can't say who. So there is the very real possibility - and don't relax, just take a deep breath as you contemplate this - that Kamala Harris can actually afford to take the night "off." (23:20) THE WORST JOURNALISTS IN THE WORLD: A special segment saluting the gutless owner of the L.A. Times who refused to print the paper's endorsement of Harris in one of the bluest communities in the country; Dana Bash, who somehow did worse than she did at the debate; Erick Erickson who says Trump has a type and it's not Melania. B-Block (30:00) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Yankees boss Brian Cashman explains his total under-performance since 2001 by blaming cheaters (ignoring evidence of Yankee cheating in 1999, 2000, 2009, 2011). Nicole Shanahan reportedly offered to pay off a Washington Post reporter working on a story about her. Lara Trump thinks there are 81 states. C-Block (40:10) FRIDAYS WITH THURBER: The political fables! Including "The Peacelike Mongoose," "The Very Proper Gander," "The Moth And The Star," and "The Owl Who Was God."See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 3: 5:00pm- During a Trump campaign event on Tuesday, former Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard—who served in the House of Representatives as a Democrat—announced that she was joining the Republican Party. She appeared on Fox News and explained: “Independent thinkers like me have no home in the Democrat Party of censorship and total conformity and war. Under President Trump's leadership, the Republican Party welcomes people like us." 5:15pm- While appearing on MSNBC, Ian Sams—Spokesperson for Vice President Kamala Harris—said that due to scheduling issues, Harris will not appear on Joe Rogan's podcast. Donald Trump will appear on the podcast today, with the episode ultimately being made public this weekend. 5:20pm- George Packer, writer for The Atlantic, attempted to explain why Black and Hispanic voters are backing Donald Trump: “The sharpest divide in our politics today is education. Whether you have a college degree or not. That is the likeliest determinant of if you are going to vote Republican or Democrat. That's why we're seeing larger numbers of Latinos and Black voters who are moving toward Trump." Packer makes it seem like college graduates are “enlightened”—but is it really closer to indoctrinated? The Harvard Crimson recently released data on faculty donations for the 2024 election cycle. 94% of all faculty donations went to Democrats. 5:30pm- Matt's favorite member of Congress, Hank Johnson, announces his endorsement of Kamala Harris—which is the perfect excuse to play some of his greatest hits: apologizing for offending “little people,” worrying about Guam becoming overpopulated and capsizing, and accusing the Tooth Fairy of being too woke and anti-Christian. 5:45pm- 4:00pm- Bombshell WSJ Poll: A newly released Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally‚ 49% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. You can find the complete polling results here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516?mod=hp_lead_pos7 5:50pm- In a New York Times editorial, polling expert Nate Silver said his “gut says Trump” will win the 2024 presidential election. He also noted that pollsters may be “herding toward a false consensus” and that, according to his model, “there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.” You can read the full editorial here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html

Krystal and Saagar discuss former model accuses Trump of groping, John Kelly says Trump is fascist, Nate Silver says Trump will win, Axelrod calls out Kamala word salad.   To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com   Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Rich Zeoli Show- Hour 2: 4:00pm- Bombshell WSJ Poll: A newly released Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally‚ 49% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. Aaron Zitner of The Wall Street Journal writes: “Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance. By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office—a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris. Moreover, voters give Trump a solid edge in most cases when asked about the candidates' agendas and policies. By 10 points, more voters have a favorable than unfavorable view of Trump's economic plan for the country, while unfavorable views of Harris's economic plan outweigh positive views by 4 points.” You can find the complete polling results here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516?mod=hp_lead_pos7 4:15pm- In a New York Times editorial, polling expert Nate Silver said his “gut says Trump” will win the 2024 presidential election. He also noted that pollsters may be “herding toward a false consensus” and that, according to his model, “there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.” You can read the full editorial here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html 4:30pm- Congressman Scott Perry—Representative for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss his reelection campaign and Donald Trump's prospects of winning the presidential election. Rep. Perry adroitly notes that if Trump wins the presidency, a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will undoubtedly attempt to impeach him on Day One. It's imperative that Republicans retain the House. To learn more about Rep. Perry's campaign, visit: https://patriotsforperry.com/ 4:50pm- While evaluating Kamala Harris's CNN town hall performance, former Obama Administration Advisor David Axlerod said it was “word salad city.”

The Rich Zeoli Show- Full Episode (10/24/2024) 3:05pm- Panic Sets In for Kamala Harris & Her Supporters: A newly released Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally‚ 49% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. On Wednesday night, Harris took part in a CNN town hall hosted by Anderson Cooper where she, once again, struggled to answer questions. In response to her performance, pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC that “Harris is in trouble at his point...she still hasn't closed the deal.” Last month, Luntz predicted Harris would win the election. 3:15pm- Congressman Mike Kelly—Representing Pennsylvania's 16th Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss his work as Chair of the Bipartisan Task Force Investigating the Attempted Assassination of Former President Donald Trump. Earlier this week, the House released an interim report indicating that the Secret Service did not properly coordinate with local law enforcement prior to Trump's July 13th campaign rally in Bristol, Pennsylvania—which resulted in several people being shot, including the former president. 3:40pm- While speaking with NBC News's Hallie Jackson, Vice President Kamala Harris avoided answering whether President Joe Biden has ever exhibited any signs of cognitive decline behind closed doors. 4:00pm- Bombshell WSJ Poll: A newly released Wall Street Journal poll reveals that Donald Trump now leads Kamala Harris nationally‚ 49% to 46% in a head-to-head matchup. Aaron Zitner of The Wall Street Journal writes: “Views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favorably and unfavorably. Now, the unfavorable views are dominant by 8 percentage points, 53% to 45%. Moreover, voters give Harris her worst job rating as vice president in the three times the Journal has asked about it since July, with 42% approving and 54% disapproving of her performance. By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52% approving and 48% disapproving of his performance in office—a 4-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris. Moreover, voters give Trump a solid edge in most cases when asked about the candidates' agendas and policies. By 10 points, more voters have a favorable than unfavorable view of Trump's economic plan for the country, while unfavorable views of Harris's economic plan outweigh positive views by 4 points.” You can find the complete polling results here: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/trump-leads-harris-wsj-poll-779f8516?mod=hp_lead_pos7 4:15pm- In a New York Times editorial, polling expert Nate Silver said his “gut says Trump” will win the 2024 presidential election. He also noted that pollsters may be “herding toward a false consensus” and that, according to his model, “there's about a 60 percent chance that one candidate will sweep at least six of seven battleground states.” You can read the full editorial here: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/23/opinion/election-polls-results-trump-harris.html 4:30pm- Congressman Scott Perry—Representative for Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District—joins The Rich Zeoli Show to discuss his reelection campaign and Donald Trump's prospects of winning the presidential election. Rep. Perry adroitly notes that if Trump wins the presidency, a Democrat-controlled House of Representatives will undoubtedly attempt to impeach him on Day One. It's imperative that Republicans retain the House. To learn more about Rep. Perry's campaign, visit: https://patriotsforperry.com/ 4:50pm- While evaluating Kamala Harris's CNN town hall performance, former Obama Administration Advisor David Axlerod said it was “word salad city.” 5:00pm- Kamala's ‘Kids In Cages' Lie Paved The Way For A Child Trafficking Crisis. Luke Rosiak of The Daily Wire writes: “In the waning days of the cam ...

Trump is surging, Kamala is flailing, and Nate Silver says his "gut" is that Trump will win. So, what's the left's last-ditch play? Compare Trump to Hitler! Kash Patel joins Charlie to talk about this pathetic rehash of 2016 rhetoric. Plus, Sergio Gor talks about publishing the president's books, working with Don Junior, and the "Mother of All Trump Rallies" happening in Georgia tonight.Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 53: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: You are HERE - at this spot in the map of madness where the New York Times and Politico tried to get away with lying and reporting Trump's Saturday Arnold Palmer Penis Length monologue – the first thing he has seemed actually INTERESTED in, in weeks - was just ‘telling golf stories.' You are HERE - where Howard Kurtz actually held Trump more accountable than the Times or Politico or nearly every major news organization. You are HERE where the Times has been front row for one of the greatest unprecedented political stories in human history – just on a sell-more-newspapers, first draft of history level – I mean it's up there with the rise of Hitler and the mid-press conference suicide of the Pennsylvania State Treasurer and the death of President Faure of France with his mistress atop him and both of them atop the presidential desk – the Madness of King Trump – and the Times could have owned this story for all time but the Sulzberger-Kahn idea of how to cover this presidential race was to finally look at the Trump Penis Envy and try to explain or analyze it and come up with only two possible explanations: frustration or a desire to entertain. Not: Trump is a full-on KKK level racist and a rapist-in-spirit if not in absolute literal legal fact, and/or Trump is absolutely, positively nuts. You are HERE where Nate Silver predicts Kamala Harris will win the popular vote, win the Electoral College - and still lose the election. Where the polls in Michigan have her behind by half a point OR ahead by eight.  You are HERE where a putatively STRAIGHT man Trump spends an awful lot of time talking about other men's penises and using expletives to demean women, and where Trump drags in a really damaged former SportsCenter co-anchor of mine named Sage Steele and makes her the emcee of one of his staged events and the crowd BOOS HER and he MISPRONOUNCES her name. Journalism. Use it or lose it. On January 20th. Mr. Sulzberger, you and your Times executives and editors will have helped end democracy in America or damn near done so. Those of us who survive will remember. B-Block (20:26) SPECIAL COMMENT: So why are we in this horrific place? How are we one week and one day to the election and how is it possible that the polls show anything other than a double-digit lead for the party of the non-racist, able-to-read, non-conspiracy theory candidate? The answer is two words: Mike Tyson. It was trainer Cus D'Amato and his associate Kevin Rooney who perfected managing Tyson's medication in such a way that they could keep him stable nearly all the time, and then gradually lower his dose in the weeks and days before a fight so that all his maniacal energy would appear IN the ring.  And then in 1988, two men stepped in to try to take over Mike Tyson's contract and Mike Tyson's life: Don King and Donald Trump. King said Tyson should be making millions more than he did under Rooney and manager Bill Cayton, and Trump showed Tyson the world of jet-setters. When Tyson complained that the drugs he needed to keep life manageable made him sleepy and uncomfortable and unhappy, Trump told Tyson: Why are you TAKING them? You are the youngest heavyweight champion in history, you can do what you WANT, you tell THEM what drugs you'll take. They don't know you and who knows if the drugs really do you any good? You're not the troubled kid any more, you're an adult man, a champion, a God. Dump these idiots making money off you and come with me and Don King and we won't make you take those drugs! Today? America is the Mike Tyson of 1988. C-Block (28:00) GOOD NIGHT AND GOOD LUCKSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Larry weighs in on his recent tour, the newest season of ‘Reasonable Doubt', and the upcoming presidential election. He's then joined by writer, statistician, and founder of the site FiveThirtyEight Nate Silver to discuss his newest book ‘On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything' (15:27). They begin their conversation by talking about why certain types of people get into gambling and the importance of preparation when going into high stakes competitions (21:08). Nate then details how he got into politics before breaking down the process of his calculations and predictions (31:44). After the break they categorize different types of gamblers into ‘fox' and ‘hedgehog' categories and apply these descriptors to individuals operating in society (48:43). Larry and Nate end the pod by making election and sports predictions (1:07:28). Host: Larry Wilmore Guest: Nate Silver Producer: Chris Sutton Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Who is winning in the 2024 presidential race? Which candidate is in a better position to take the White House? Whoever's ahead, Kamala will always be Kamala, and her bizarre media mannerisms are hitting at all the worst times. With the betting markets predicting a trump win and Nate Silver projecting nearly a tie, this election continues to captivate the American voter and the Fellas. Stay tuned for some juicy variety; Maine is having its annual wife-carrying competition, and a giant pumpkin swallows a cop. Last but not least, Sen. Tom Cotton joins the progrum! Join the fight to win! Go to AmericansForProsperity.org/Volunteer TAKE ACTION! Tell Congress to guard your card and visit GaurdYourCard.com. Take the next step to improving your health, go to Lumen.me/RUTHLESS to get 15% off your Lumen.

SERIES 3 EPISODE 45: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: It is safe to extrapolate that Donald Trump killed at least one American in order to instead send the Covid testing machine that might have saved them to Vladimir Putin. Bob Woodward's book says Trump "secretly sent Putin what were then rare Abbott Point of Care test MACHINES for the Russian's personal use.” From the supply meant for American citizens then faced with a rapidly-spreading virus for which there was no vaccine, no cure, and next to no treatment. To save Putin and his fellow scumbags, even if it killed Americans. May Donald Trump burn in hell – and the sooner the better. We know with certainty that Trump stole American testing machines from American hospitals and other crisis health facilities to give to Russia's dictator between March 31st 2020 and May 7th 2020. The earlier date is when Abbott says was “we began distributing our rapid point-of-care Covid-19 tests for our ID NOW system.” On May 7th officials in Russia and Russia's branch office at the Trump White House said “some (Covid) testing equipment as well as ventilators” had been sent to Russia. March 31st. That was the day Doctors Fauci and Birx tried to warn the country that the best case scenario was between 100 thousand and 240 thousand American dead. By April 10th there were more than 18 thousand Americans dead and more than half a million cases – 160,00 of them here in New York state. Our outside date on this window of infamy is May 7, by which point there were 72-thousand dead. 10-thousand more Americans would die in the next week… the latest possible date that someone could not get a test because Trump prioritized Putin's life over yours. AS TO THE OTHER BIG WOODWARD HEADLINE: We know Trump is STILL Putin's asset. Woodward quotes an unidentified Trump aide as saying the two creatures have spoken at least seven times since Trump was exiled from Washington. “In early 2024,” the Washington Post writes, “the former president ordered an aide away from his office at Mar-a-Lago… so he could conduct a private phone call with Russian leader." It got lost at the time, but at the debate against Biden in June, Trump confirmed that he talked to Putin between our exit from Afghanistan (August 2021) and Putin's invasion of Ukraine (February 2022). He has been in contact with an enemy dictator. Were Trump an FBI or CIA agent with such contacts he and his lawyers could at this moment be negotiating a plea deal so he could avoid the death penalty. B-Block (24:00) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Who's the worst person to speak to the future of legacy news media at The New York Press Club? No - none of my ex-girlfriends. Guess again. Joe Kernen is big mad at me, at Andrew Ross Sorkin, at Frank Luntz, at his own ferret toupees. And news chiefs Cesar Conde and Rebecca Blumenstein at NBC - Nothing But Cowards - now move into Catch-and-Kill mode, burying a movie critical of Trump until AFTER the election. C-Block (33:15) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: Of all the politicians I've met since I first went into the field in 1997 one stands head and shoulders above the others in terms of the ability to take a joke at his own expense. I thought I'd heard him at the high point of his self-deprecation. Then, last week, he topped himself, making such a joke HIMSELF.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver—yes, the Nate Silver from 538—joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk—whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] – Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] – Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] – Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] – Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] – The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] – Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] – The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] – Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] – Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

SERIES 3 EPISODE 44: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN A-Block (1:44) SPECIAL COMMENT: We are now at the eugenics stage of Trump morphing into Hitler. We are now at the they-murder-white-people-because-it's-in-their-genes stage. I'm not exaggerating and I am just barely paraphrasing. Trump has now moved one step closer to eugenics, to classifying entire races and nationalities as genetically criminal, to fully embracing the nightmare insanity of Adolf Hitler, to ethnic cleansing and persecution of immigrants because he thinks they WILL commit murder. As Politico described it, a “blood libel,” in an interview with the conservative bobble-head doll of commentators, Hugh Hewitt. Trump quoted his fabricated number of 13,000 murderers migrating across the border, insisting murder is in "the genes" and "we got a lot of bad genes in our country right now.” Later with Laura Ingraham Trump didn't get quite as literal about eugenics but he did say quote “I will keep you safe. I'm not going to allow prisoners to come out from Venezuela… the Congo… the Middle East… Yemen. I'm going to keep you safe. I'm not going to let them help you.” I don't know how much more he has to tell this country before even the coalition of the stupid and the hateful realize that sooner rather than later, a Trump returned to power will attempt to STAY in power beyond his expiration date, by killing somebody they LIKE. Even a tech bro. Or an Aryan with not enough Aryan blood. Or Nick Fuentes because, oops, Fuentes is the same name as some of them immigrants. Or JD Vance because Trump has a really bad loyalty record with Vice Presidents. ALSO: If Republicans keep insisting Democrats are controlling the weather doesn't that imply that Trump was unable to? Musk is now bribing people $47 to sign up for his Trump PAC. He's going to campaign for Trump in Pennsylvania (his favorability is worse than Vance's). And an explanation from Nate Silver as to what kind of Popular Vote victory translates into what kind of Electoral College victory. B-Block (26:30) THE WORST PERSONS IN THE WORLD: Anybody remember the JD Vance/Trump/GOP lie about Haitian immigrants killing and eating geese and pets in Springfield, Ohio? They've convicted the geese guy. His name is Brian and he ain't from Haiti. Jake Tapper opens himself up to fact-checking, or the lack thereof. And the hockey writer who dilutes the Johnny Gaudreau tragedy for a cute line in a season preview. C-Block (34:30) THINGS I PROMISED NOT TO TELL: Howard Stern interviewing Vice President Kamala Harris? I wonder if they'll bring up what they were both doing half a century ago today. Because the odds are pretty good that half a century ago today, Howard was...meeting me. And if the anniversary isn't today, it's dang soon.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

A Note from James:"Are you a member of the river or the village? That's the question we're diving into today. Nate Silver-yes, the Nate Silver from 538-joins us with Maria Konnikova, a master of poker and decision-making. Members of the 'river,' as Nate describes, are rational thinkers. They make decisions based on probabilities and data, not emotions. So, are you in the river or the village? Because today, we're talking about how to think differently about risk-whether it's betting on an election, making an investment, or even figuring out how to navigate life. Here's what you need to know."Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher brings together two brilliant minds: Nate Silver, known for his predictive prowess, and Maria Konnikova, a renowned psychologist and poker player. The trio delves into how they make calculated decisions when the stakes are high. With examples from poker, elections, and everyday life, they discuss how we can all navigate a world full of uncertainty. What does it mean to be a rational thinker? And how can understanding probabilities make you a better decision-maker? Join them as they explore strategies for improving your risk assessment, leveraging data, and making choices that keep you in the game longer.What You'll Learn:Risk Assessment Tools: How to analyze risk effectively using concepts from poker and data science.The River vs. The Village: Are you making rational decisions, or are you just playing it safe? Find out how to challenge your instincts.Understanding Probabilities: How to apply probabilistic thinking to everyday situations, from career moves to investments.Avoiding Cognitive Traps: Learn about common mental biases that can lead to poor decisions and how to overcome them.Betting on Your Choices: Practical advice on evaluating your options to maximize the chances of success.Timestamped Chapters:[01:30] - Are You a Member of the River or the Village?[03:21] - Meet the Guests: Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova[10:09] - Maria's Journey into Poker and Game Theory[14:59] - Understanding Risk and Decision Making[27:55] - The Challenge of Trust and Information in the Digital Age[31:04] - Nate's Transition from Poker to Election Forecasting[42:37] - The Evolution of Poker Strategy[54:15] - Betting Markets and Inefficiencies[1:00:58] - Decision Making and Risk in Poker and LifeAdditional Resources:Maria Konnikova's Book: The Biggest BluffNate Silver's Newsletter: The Silver BulletinMaria Konnikova's Newsletter: The LeapNate Silver's Book: On the EdgePodcast: Risky Business with Maria Konnikova and Nate Silver ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to "The James Altucher Show" wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

Tim, Libby, & Josie are joined by Riley Moore to discuss DHS revealing there are over 600k illegal immigrants with criminal records at large, Allan Lichtman & Nate Silver sparring on X over their predictions for the 2024 election, and Israel attacking Beirut with strikes targeting the leader of Hezbollah. Hosts:  Tim @Timcast (everywhere)  Libby @LibbyEmmons (X) Guests: Riley Moore @RileyMooreWV (X) Josie @TRHLOfficial (X) Clint @LibertyLockPod (X) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

John is joined by the world's most celebrated data nerd, polling aggregator, and election forecaster, Nate Silver, to discuss the 2024 election. Nate offers unnervingly precise takes on just how close the race is (it won't calm your nerves a bit); Kamala Harris's likelihood of winning each of the battleground states; the thesis advanced in the New York Times that the GOP's advantage in the Electoral College is shrinking; whether the polling industry has cured what ailed it in 2016 and 2020; the “contingency plans” you should be making ahead of November 5; having so many people displace their election-related anxieties directly on to him. He also talks about his new bestselling book, On The Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, his relationship with Peter Thiel, his poker addiction, and why the movies Rounders and Moneyball are, well, everything. To learn more about listener data and our privacy practices visit: https://www.audacyinc.com/privacy-policy Learn more about your ad choices. Visit https://podcastchoices.com/adchoices

SEASON 3 EPISODE 33: COUNTDOWN WITH KEITH OLBERMANN The good news? Trump says if he loses, he won't run again in 2028. The bad news? Trump lies about everything. Strong polling numbers nationally and in the swings including a 16-point surge in Vice President Harris's approval score, and polling on how popular Project 2025 is (it isn't, and it isn't by 57% to 4%). Huge fundraising numbers. Mark Robinson's entire campaign leadership team quit to save their own skin, so he tried to frame it as "staff changes" (yeah, the rest of the race, I'm changing from having a staff to not having one). The Robert F. Kennedy Junior/Olivia Nuzzi story first gets more hilarious by the moment (like the fireworks explosion scene in 'Naked Gun') and then Kennedy reverts to being the Eternal Scumbag with a proxy saying on the record that he hopes to sue Nuzzi and then make "criminal referrals" because that's how you deal with a problem the proxy describes as Kennedy being "chased by porn." You don't, you know, warn the person, then call her employers and tell them to make it stop.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For a month, a media echo chamber talked endlessly about Kamala's "vibes" and "momentum." Now, Nate Silver says Trump is back in the lead, and expert observer Mark Halperin says Democrats' own internal data suggests Kamala could be in the same spot Joe Biden was by mid-September. Kane of Citizen Free Press joins Charlie to react. Plus, Michael Shellenberger dissects Mark Zuckerberg's letter to Congress, and the latest proof of anti-American misconduct at the FBI and CIA. Become a member at members.charliekirk.com!Support the show: http://www.charliekirk.com/supportSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Comedian Gary Vider joins the show to discuss his podcast “#1 Dad” and his con-man father who inspired it. They also talk about how he got his start in stand-up and the comedians who helped him along in his early days. Next, Leah Knauer returns to read the news including stories about JLo filing for divorce from Ben Affleck, a colonoscopy doctor allegedly not hearing a patient screaming because he didn't have his hearing aid in, a new non-dating app that connects groups of people just for meals, and a survey that found Fresno to have the most chivalrous men in California. Finally, statistician and professional poker player Nate Silver makes his first ACS appearance to talk about his new book “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.” They also talk about his site FiveThreeEight getting bought by Disney and the benefits of leaving the mainstream media in favor of Substack. Then they discuss what Nate's model predicts for the upcoming presidential election and his relationship with Sam Bankman-Fried. For more with Gary Vider: ● Listen to his podcast: #1 Dad ● INSTAGRAM: @garyvider ● TWITTER: @garyvider ● WEBSITE: http://garyvider.com For more with Nate Silver: ● Buy his new book: “On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything” available everywhere. ● SUBSTACK: Silver Bulletin newsletter ● TWITTER: @natesilver538 Thank you for supporting our sponsors: ● http://SimpliSafe.com/Adam ● http://QualiaLife.com/Adam ● http://OReillyAuto.com/Adam ● Hims.com/ADAM

Megyn Kelly highlights some segments from The Megyn Kelly Show over the past week, including The EJs on Walz and Vance, Megyn on media gaslighting, Nate Silver on the state of the 2024 race, and The Fifth Column on some of the biggest media storylines of the week.

We have a guest-filled hour with two great conversations headed your way. First, Charles Barkley stops by to chat about Team USA Men's Basketball's gold medal, whether the dream team could beat modern-day South Sudan, his TNT contract, the future of Inside the NBA, and why the folks behind the scenes at TNT matter the most to him. Then, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight is here to discuss his new book "On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything" and to explain how he looks at the world as a giant sports bet, his own NBA gambling, why 2016 Presidential poll predictions were so off base, and fame for nerds. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Megyn Kelly is joined by Nate Silver, author of "On the Edge," to discuss his exit from ABC's FiveThirtyEight last year, how ABC didn't understand the value of the product, FiveThirtyEight's projections this year that overweighted Biden's chances, the challenge of seeing something you built turn into something you don't support, the excitement and opportunity in independent media, how he got into politics through gambling, how his election forecast considers all different polls, why Kamala Harris is currently leading, why Trump could still be the better bet to win, what's likely to happen in the final months of the election, Elon Musk's shift to conservative and supporting Trump as president, Silver's own political point of view as a moderate liberal and whether his position will evolve more in the future, the value of risk-taking, what poker tells us about the world, and more. Then Bethany Mandel and Karol Markowicz, authors of "Stolen Youth," join to discuss the massive conversation on X Spaces between Musk and Trump, some on the left calling for Musk to be censored and even arrested over his comments and platforming, the prescriptions for how Trump and his campaign need to get back on track, why he should focus on policies that resonate with swing voters and independents, questions about his COVID policies and his VP JD Vance's media tour, the threats against Douglas Murray for making honest comments about the rise of radical Islamists in Europe, the anti-Jewish Imam associated with Democratic VP pick Tim Walz, the anti-Israel college student protests starting again soon, Glenn Close's gross comments about Vance, and more.Silver- https://www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/529280/on-the-edge-by-nate-silver/Mandel-https://x.com/bethanyshondarkMarkowicz- https://x.com/karol Lumen: Visit https://lumen.me/MEGYN to get 15% off your LumenElectronic Payments Coalition: https://ElectronicPaymentsCoalition.org Follow The Megyn Kelly Show on all social platforms:YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/MegynKellyTwitter: http://Twitter.com/MegynKellyShowInstagram: http://Instagram.com/MegynKellyShowFacebook: http://Facebook.com/MegynKellyShow Find out more information at: https://www.devilmaycaremedia.com/megynkellyshow