Podcasts about Planning fallacy

BRX Pro Tip: The Planning Fallacy Stone Payton: And we are back with Business RadioX Pro Tips, Lee Kantor and Stone Payton here with you. Lee, let’s talk a little bit about this thing called the planning fallacy. Lee Kantor: Yeah. A lot of people are really focused in on planning and trying to kind […]

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer welcomes Dr. Polly Kang, a postdoctoral scholar at INSEAD, to explore the fascinating "streak end rule" and its implications for motivation and job satisfaction. Polly's research delves into how feelings influence decisions in organizational settings, using advanced quantitative tools and vast data sets to uncover causal relationships. Polly shares insights from her study on a text-based crisis hotline, revealing how the order of tasks, rather than their difficulty alone, significantly impacts employee quitting rates. By strategically breaking up hard task streaks with easier tasks, organizations can reduce turnover by up to 22%. This episode provides practical strategies for managers to enhance job design and improve employee retention without financial incentives. In this episode: Discover the streak end rule and its impact on motivation and job satisfaction. Learn how to reduce employee turnover by reordering tasks. Understand the role of job design in creating a positive work experience. Explore practical applications of the streak end rule in various organizational contexts. Gain insights into leveraging employee input to optimize task assignments. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces Dr. Polly Kang and the topic of the streak end rule. 00:03:00 - Dr. Kang's Background Dr. Kang discusses her academic journey and research focus. 00:08:00 - The Streak End Rule Explanation of the streak end rule and its implications for employee motivation. 00:18:00 - Practical Applications Strategies for applying the streak end rule to reduce turnover. 00:28:00 - Role of Job Design Discussion on how job design can enhance employee satisfaction. 00:38:00 - Managerial Insights Tips for managers to optimize task assignments and improve team dynamics. 00:48:00 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Polly: LinkedIn  Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Influence, by Robert Cialdini The Speed of Trust, by Stephen M.R. Covey Drive, by Daniel Pink How Minds Change, by David McRaney Top Recommended Next Episode: Fundamental Attribution Error (ep 268) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Change Management (ep 226) Confirmation Bias (ep 260) That's not fair! (Inequity Aversion) (ep 224) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Manuj Aggarwall Interview (ep 192) Other Important Links: Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Time Article

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer explores the art of organizing your brain using behavioral economics principles. Feeling overwhelmed and scattered? You're not alone. Melina shares practical strategies to help streamline your mental processes, reduce stress, and boost productivity, drawing from behavioral economics insights. Originally aired in January 2020, this episode remains as relevant as ever, offering timeless advice on decluttering both your physical and digital spaces. In this episode: Discover the impact of clutter on decision-making and how it leads to poor choices. Learn about the "chocolate cake study" and its implications for understanding brain overload. Explore practical tips for decluttering your workspace and digital life to enhance focus. Gain insights into productivity tools like Gantt charts, Trello, and the snooze function in Gmail. Understand how to use the KonMari method and other organizational strategies for a more streamlined life. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces the episode and the relevance of organizing your brain with behavioral economics. 00:05:00 - The Chocolate Cake Study Discussion on how mental overload leads to poor decision-making using a famous study as an example. 00:15:12 - Impact of Clutter How clutter affects stress levels, productivity, and decision-making. 00:22:36 - Decluttering Strategies Tips for organizing physical and digital spaces, including the Konmari method and digital decluttering. 00:26:17 - Productivity Tools Introduction to tools like Gantt charts, Trello, and Gmail snooze function to manage tasks effectively. 00:35:12 - Conclusion, What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Microstress Effect, by Rob Cross and Karen Dillon Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Come Up For Air, by Nick Sonnenberg Happier Hour, by Cassie Holmes Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Top Recommended Next Episode: An Overview of Lazy Brain Biases (ep 53) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Overwhelmed Brain and its impact on decision making (ep 358) Cassie Holmes Interview (ep 257) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Decision Fatigue (ep 244) Leidy Klotz Interview (ep 322) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer engages in an insightful conversation with Madeline Quinlan, a behavioral scientist and co-founder of Salient, a consultancy bridging the gap between academic insights and practical applications of behavioral science. Madeline shares her journey from finance to behavioral science and discusses the importance of reframing failures as opportunities for learning and growth. With a focus on the intersection of finance and psychology, Madeline reveals how unexpected outcomes can lead to deeper insights into human behavior and decision-making. Throughout the discussion, Melina and Madeline explore the significance of understanding the right problem before applying behavioral science interventions and the value of piloting initiatives to ensure effectiveness. They also explore the role of qualitative and quantitative research in validating behavioral strategies, emphasizing the need for a more personalized approach to behavioral interventions. In this episode: Discover how unexpected results can provide valuable insights and opportunities for growth. Understand the importance of addressing the right problem in behavioral science applications. Explore the balance between qualitative and quantitative research in behavioral interventions. Learn about the potential of personalization in behavioral science through data and technology. Gain insights into the founding and mission of Salient and the Global Association of Applied Behavioral Scientists (GAABS). Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces Madeline Quinlan, co-founder of Salient, and her background in finance and psychology. Maddie shares her journey and the inspiration behind co-founding Salient. 00:05:45 - Discovering Behavioral Science Maddie discusses her transition from finance to behavioral science and the pivotal moment when she discovered the intersection of finance and psychology. 00:10:30 - Founding Salient Maddie shares the story of founding Salient while pursuing her master's at the London School of Economics and the importance of bridging the gap between academic insights and practical applications. 00:15:22 - Innovative Projects Maddie highlights some of her favorite projects, including a collaboration with Nest Insight to encourage self-employed individuals in the UK to save for their pensions through innovative message framing techniques. 00:22:15 - The Importance of Testing Maddie and Melina discuss the importance of rigorous testing in behavioral science and the value of learning from both successes and failures. 00:30:45 - Embracing Failures Maddie shares insights from her master's thesis on mindfulness meditation and temporal discounting, emphasizing the importance of embracing failures and unexpected results in research. 00:40:30 - The Future of Behavioral Science Maddie discusses the future of behavioral science, including the potential for personalized interventions and the importance of maintaining a human-centered approach. 00:50:15 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Madeline: LinkedIn Website Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Your Future Self, by Hal Hershfield Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood How to Change, by Katy Milkman Top Recommended Next Episode: Optimism Bias (ep 34) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Time Discounting (ep 328) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) How to Set, Achieve and Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) Dominic Packer Interview (ep 178) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer is joined by Dr. Vanessa Patrick, a renowned professor of marketing and author of the USA Today bestseller, The Power of Saying No. Together, they delve into the critical art of saying no and how it can empower individuals to take control of their lives. Vanessa shares her insights on why people struggle with saying no, the importance of setting personal policies, and how empowered refusal can help you manage your time and energy effectively. Throughout the conversation, Melina and Vanessa discuss the psychological barriers that prevent us from saying no, the societal expectations that push us to say yes, and practical strategies to overcome these challenges. They explore the concept of "empowered refusal" and how shifting from "I can't" to "I don't" can transform our decision-making process. Vanessa also introduces her ART framework—Awareness, Rules, and Totality of Self—as a guide to mastering the art of saying no. In this episode: Discover why saying no is essential for personal and professional growth. Learn about the psychological drivers that make us say yes when we want to say no. Explore the ART framework for empowered refusal and how it can transform your life. Understand the importance of personal policies and how they help in decision-making. Gain insights into handling requests at work, especially non-promotable tasks. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces Dr. Vanessa Patrick and focuses on the power of saying no. 00:04:00 - Vanessa's Background Vanessa shares her background and the motivation behind her research on saying no. 00:10:00 - The Struggle with Saying No Discussion on why people find it challenging to say no and the societal pressures involved. 00:20:00 - Empowered Refusal Introduction to the concept of empowered refusal and the ART framework. 00:30:00 - Personal Policies How personal policies can help in saying no and the difference between "I can't" and "I don't." 00:40:00 - Handling Work Requests Strategies for managing non-promotable tasks and saying no at work. 00:43:00 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Vanessa: LinkedIn  Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Power of Saying No, by Vanessa Patrick Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Come Up For Air, by Nick Sonnenberg Happier Hour, by Cassie Holmes Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Top Recommended Next Episode: Decision Fatigue (ep 244) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Overwhelmed Brain and its impact on decision making (ep 358) Cassie Holmes Interview (ep 257) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Leidy Klotz Interview (ep 322) An Overview of Lazy Brain Biases (ep 53) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer welcomes Jodi Wellman, author of You Only Die Once, for an inspiring discussion on living a life without regrets. Jodi shares her insights on how to make the most of our limited time, emphasizing the importance of embracing mortality as a motivator for living fully. With a unique blend of humor and wisdom, she helps listeners explore the concept of mortality not as a source of fear, but as a catalyst for action and meaningful living. Throughout the conversation, Melina and Jodi explore the significance of the 4,000 weeks we have in an average lifespan, and how acknowledging this can propel us to pursue our dreams and passions. They discuss practical strategies for identifying and overcoming the inertia that holds us back, and how to prioritize what truly matters in life. Jodi's approach is filled with lively anecdotes and engaging illustrations, making her book a delightful guide to living life to the fullest. In this episode: Learn how to use the concept of mortality as a motivator for a more fulfilling life. Discover strategies for identifying and overcoming the inertia that holds you back. Explore the power of pre-regrets and how to take action before it's too late. Understand the importance of prioritizing what truly matters and how to do it effectively. Gain insights into how small changes can lead to a more vibrant and meaningful life. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces Jodi Wellman and the focus of today's episode on living a life without regrets. 00:04:00 - The 4,000 Weeks Concept Discussion on the average lifespan and how to make the most of our limited time. 00:15:17 - Motivated by Mortality How embracing mortality can serve as a powerful motivator for living fully. 00:25:09 - Overcoming Inertia Strategies for identifying and overcoming the inertia that holds us back from pursuing our dreams. 00:35:00 - The Power of Pre-Regrets Exploring the concept of pre-regrets and how to take action before it's too late. 00:41:23 - Prioritizing What Matters Understanding the importance of prioritizing what truly matters and how to do it effectively. 00:44:00 - Small Changes, Big Impact Insights into how small changes can lead to a more vibrant and meaningful life. 00:49:35 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Jodi:  LinkedIn Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: You Only Die Once, by Jodi Wellman Your Future Self, by Hal Hershfield Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood How to Change, by Katy Milkman Top Recommended Next Episode: How to Set, Achieve and Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Time Discounting (ep 328) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Dominic Packer Interview (ep 178) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer is joined by the renowned author Dan Pink to explore the intriguing concept of regret. Dan, known for his bestselling books including Drive, delves into his latest work, The Power of Regret, to discuss why this often-dreaded emotion can actually be a force for good. As the episode airs on New Year's Eve, it encourages listeners to reflect on their past year, consider their regrets, and use them as a tool for growth and improvement in the coming year. Dan shares insights from his comprehensive research, including the American Regret Project and the World Regret Survey, which uncovered common themes in the regrets people experience worldwide. He categorizes these into four core areas: foundational, boldness, moral, and connection regrets. Throughout the conversation, Melina and Dan discuss how understanding and embracing regret can lead to better decision-making, problem-solving, and ultimately, a more fulfilling life. In this episode: Discover why regret is a common and natural emotion that can be beneficial if harnessed correctly. Learn about the four core categories of regret and how they manifest in people's lives. Understand how reflecting on your regrets can help clarify your values and guide future actions. Hear about Dan Pink's research methods and the fascinating insights gained from the World Regret Survey. Gain practical advice on how to confront regret and use it as a tool for personal and professional growth. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces the episode's theme of regret and its potential power. 00:02:30 - Dan Pink's Background Dan shares his journey as a writer and how he came to explore the topic of regret. 00:10:00 - The No Regrets Myth Discussion on the cultural perception of regret and why it is misunderstood. 00:20:00 - Research Insights Dan talks about the American Regret Project and the World Regret Survey findings. 00:35:00 - Four Core Regrets Explanation of the foundational, boldness, moral, and connection regrets. 00:45:00 - Processing Regret Tips on how to reflect on and learn from regrets to improve future outcomes. 00:48:17 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Dan: LinkedIn Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Power of Regret, by Daniel Pink Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Your Future Self, by Hal Hershfield Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood Top Recommended Next Episode: Time Discounting (ep 328) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Optimism Bias (ep 34) How to Set, Achieve and Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) Dominic Packer Interview (ep 178) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter The Adventures of Johnny Bunko: The Last Career Guide You'll Ever Need Free Agent Nation: The Future of Working for Yourself Exploit & Explore: Two Ways of Categorizing Innovation Research

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer welcomes Dr. Siobhan McHale, author of The Hive Mind at Work. Siobhan's fascination with bees from her childhood in Southern Ireland led her to explore human ecosystems and the power of group intelligence in transforming workplaces. With over 30 years of experience, she has guided leaders in creating agile and productive environments, drawing from her role as an executive in charge of transformation at international firms like ANZ Bank. Throughout the episode, Siobhan discusses the concept of the hive mind and its application in business, emphasizing the importance of understanding group intelligence (GQ) alongside traditional IQ and EQ. She shares insights from her book, including case studies from her career, and explains how organizations can overcome challenges by diagnosing patterns and reframing roles. The conversation also delves into the nine laws of group dynamics and the role of storytelling in facilitating change. In this episode: Discover the significance of group intelligence (GQ) in modern workplaces. Learn about the nine laws of group dynamics and how they can transform organizations. Explore the parallels between bee behavior and business ecosystems. Understand the role of storytelling in driving meaningful change. Gain practical insights into diagnosing and addressing group dynamics issues. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina Palmer introduces Dr. Siobhan McHale and the topic of group intelligence in the workplace. 00:03:15 - Siobhan's Background Siobhan shares her journey from a small village in Ireland to a career in organizational psychology and transformation. 00:09:45 - The Hive Mind Concept Discussion on the inspiration behind The Hive Mind at Work and the lessons from bees. 00:15:30 - IQ, EQ, and GQ Explanation of group intelligence and its importance in navigating complex business environments. 00:22:00 - Diagnosing Organizational Patterns Insights into identifying and addressing hidden patterns in workplace dynamics. 00:30:00 - Case Study: ANZ Bank A detailed look at the successful transformation of ANZ Bank using group intelligence principles. 00:38:00 - The Nine Laws of Group Dynamics Overview of the laws and their application in business contexts. 00:45:00 - Storytelling and Change The role of storytelling in making complex ideas accessible and memorable. 00:52:00 - Conclusion What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Siobhan: LinkedIn Siobhan's Website Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Influence, by Robert Cialdini The Speed of Trust, by Stephen M.R. Covey Drive, by Daniel Pink The Hive Mind at Work, by Siobhan McHale Top Recommended Next Episode: Change Management (ep 226) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Confirmation Bias (ep 260) That's not fair! (Inequity Aversion) (ep 224) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Fundamental Attribution Error (ep 268) Manuj Aggarwall Interview (ep 192) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

We all want to make smart, thoughtful, "rational" decisions, right? But how do we do that when we're working with a biased brain? Today's episode is pulled from a Workshop I did for a Decision Masters Coaching Group, where we explored different cognitive biases and tendencies that impact our decision-making daily. You'll learn: How the Fluency Effect makes things seem easier than they are Why the Planning Fallacy might be to blame for you not getting all 27 things done during that "90-minute time block" And how to use the awareness of these biases to your advantage, so you can still remain a human (we don't "conquer" our own wiring!) but also make intentional choices and set yourself up for success LINKS! What's your DECISION STYLE? Take the Quiz! Need to say NO? Here's your 11-minute Crash Course on Saying NO Guilt-Free. Ready to talk about getting clear, intentional & sure of your choices? Book your free consultation Join the Alignment and Accountability Club Hire me for two weeks with the Make a Decision Package

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is: 35 Interactive Learning Modules Relevant to EAs / Effective Altruism (that are all free), published by spencerg on June 24, 2024 on The Effective Altruism Forum. Hi all! For quite a number of years now at Clearer Thinking we've been developing free, interactive, online learning modules on a wide variety of topics. I wanted to create a list of which of these tools are most relevant to EAs and to Effective Altruism itself, in case you find them useful (for yourself, or for sharing with others). Here's the list, organized by topic: 1. Calibration, prediction and knowledge practice Calibrate Your Judgment - this program contains thousands of question sets to help you become adept at making well-calibrated judgments. It also tracks your progress over time so you can see how you improve! Predict Psychological Correlations - test how accurate your understanding of psychology is by practicing and improving your ability to make predictions. Retrocaster - take the challenge to identify the correct global trends on a variety of topics - from Africa's future population to the evolution of CO2 emissions in the US. Biosafety Quiz - uncover the history of pandemics, test your biosafety knowledge, and learn essential steps to safeguard humanity's future. Long-Term Future Quiz - get a glimpse into the opportunities that may await humanity if we can avoid disasters such as nuclear war and extreme climate change. Invite your imagination to take flight with 11 multiple-choice questions. Artificial Intelligence Quiz - test your knowledge of artificial intelligence and some of the risks it poses. The Common Misconceptions Test - Separate fact from B.S. in this fun quiz that asks you to identify the misconceptions among 30 common beliefs. World's Biggest Problems Quiz - test your knowledge of some of the world's most pressing problems: global health, animal welfare, and existential risks to humanity. Political Bias Test - learn to spot your political biases and test your policy knowledge Charity Effectiveness - see if you can guess which social interventions had a positive effect, a negative effect, or no effect, based on a short description. Guess Which Experiments Replicate - Can you guess which of these high-profile experiments were legit? Improve Your Frequency Predictions - a quick quiz to test your ability to estimate the frequency of events and compare your scores to others'. 2. Sharpening Your Thinking Nuanced Thinking Techniques - Learn to recognize 3 common binary thinking traps and learn the nuanced thinking techniques you can use to combat them. The Question of Evidence - there is more to interpreting evidence than you might think. Learn to improve your predictions by understanding evidence on a deeper level using Bayes' rule. Can You Detect Weak Arguments? - Find out how well you can spot misleading rhetoric and recognize your own bias using real-world examples Faulty Reasoning Quiz - learn about five types of faulty arguments and take a quiz to see how well you can spot them Rhetorical Fallacies - train yourself to detect common reasoning errors that often go unnoticed. The Belief Challenger - our beliefs determine our behaviors and how we interact with others. Use this program to refine your beliefs and form more accurate views. The Planning Fallacy - ever notice that projects usually take longer than people predict? Understand the science behind this phenomenon and become a more reliable planner. Mental Traps - scientists have discovered a slew of systematic errors in human thought. Learn about a few of the mind's mistakes in this brief introduction. 3. Communication Productive Disagreements - learn techniques to have constructive arguments Become A Great Listener - this tool teaches the skill of Active Listening, a strategy commonly used by therapists, helpline volunteers,...

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, Melina Palmer dives into the fascinating world of status quo bias. She delves into how our brains are wired to stick to what's familiar and how that impacts our decision-making. Melina talks about how our subconscious, or system one, is responsible for processing a whopping 99% of our decisions, and how it relies on biases and heuristics to navigate through the daily information overload.  From choosing familiar routes to work to hesitating to leave a job for something new, she walks through how status quo bias shows up in various aspects of our lives. Melina even shares a thought-provoking scenario about an experience machine that offers endless pleasure but detaches you from reality, and how our tendency to favor the familiar can be surprising. If you're into change management and want to enhance your decision-making strategies, this episode is a goldmine. Melina's insights are not just thought-provoking, but also offer practical ways to challenge the status quo and embrace change in both personal and professional spheres. In this episode: Uncover the impact of status quo bias on decision-making and how to mitigate its effects. Explore the psychology behind reluctance towards change and how to foster a culture of adaptability within organizations. Examine the influence of familiarity over authenticity and its significance in decision-making processes. Implement proven strategies for effective change management to drive organizational success. Harness the power of bias to enhance customer retention and loyalty through strategic decision-making. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction Melina introduces the concept of status quo bias and its impact on decision-making, highlighting its significance in understanding consumer behavior and business strategy. 00:05:40 - The Influence of Change The discussion delves into the subconscious's strong preference for predictability and the fear of the unknown, leading to resistance towards change, even in the face of potential benefits. 00:09:19 - The Experience Machine Thought Experiment The thought experiment by Robert Nozick and its variant, presented by Felipe de Brigard, illustrate the powerful influence of status quo bias on decision-making, as demonstrated by participants' preferences for familiarity over reality. 00:12:58 - Embracing Change Embracing the feeling of fear and uncertainty when embarking on something new is highlighted as a positive sign, indicating growth and the potential for a new, beneficial status quo. 00:14:30 - Lessons from the Pandemic The pandemic-induced shift in status quo bias is discussed, emphasizing the need for businesses to adapt and communicate effectively to facilitate organizational change and embrace new norms. 00:16:33 - Change Management and Internal Communication Melina teaches a class on change management and internal communication at Texas A&M, offering insights on applying behavioral economics concepts to big changes. She emphasizes working with biases to minimize their impact when presenting change. 00:17:02 - Importance of Timing in Change Presentation Melina discusses the impact of stress and overwhelm on people's resistance to change. It's crucial to be thoughtful and considerate of the circumstances before presenting a significant change, waiting for a better time or reducing stress can make a big difference. 00:18:46 - Influence of Status Quo Bias on Customers Status quo bias affects existing customers' inclination to stick with a brand. Melina highlights the need to consider the context of the customer relationship when presenting information and communicating changes. 00:19:27 - Framing Messages for Existing Customers Melina emphasizes the importance of framing messages to reinforce the customer's natural propensity for status quo bias. The way a message is framed can significantly impact retention rates and influence a customer's decision to renew or switch. 00:20:28 -  Conclusion Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer The Truth About Pricing, by Melina Palmer Atomic Habits, by James Clear   Top Recommended Next Episode: Bikeshedding (ep 99) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Endowment Effect (ep 139) Loss Aversion (ep 316) Framing (ep 296) Change Management (ep 226) Habits (ep 256) The Power of Habit (ep 368) Wendy Wood Interview (ep 127) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Time Discounting (ep 328) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias Status Quo Bias in Decision Making What is Status Quo Bias in Sales and Marketing? How Powerful Is Status Quo Bias?

Ever looked at a task, confidently slapped a "30 minutes" estimate on it, only to be staring at it two hours later, bleary-eyed and bewildered what happened? You've fallen victim to the infamous Planning Fallacy. Today we're explaining what the Planning Fallacy. is, how it happens and giving you a plan to make sure it doesn't happen again so you're not running late. CONNECT WITH US Claim Your Weekly EDGE Newsletter to Boost Your Productivity. It's FREE!Over 24,225 listeners and counting! If you have an amazing productivity tool or app that will make people more productive please reach out to us at b at brandon c white dot com OTHER GREAT PODCASTS ON THE BEST PODCASTS NETWORK How to Write a Business Plan Podcast Owning a Business Podcast MARKETING Podcast The Brandon White Show Thanks for listening to the productivity podcast!

So you want to crack the code to entrepreneurial success?It's not enough to hustle hard or have a great vision. You need real strategies, the proper mindset, and key foundational principles to build a legacy, not just a business.In this episode of "The Few with Boo," we break down the insider secrets of what it takes to be a highly successful entrepreneur with host Boo and his guest Chaz Wolfe. Chaz is a high-performing serial entrepreneur and host of Gathering the Kings Podcast.Get ready to learn Chaz's refreshing take on business failures, his advice for thriving amidst any adversity, the three crucial stages every entrepreneur goes through, and his framework for dominating as an elite player.Whether you're just getting started on your entrepreneurial journey or you've been at it for a minute, this episode drops the cheat codes you need to take your business to the next level.Key Lessons:1. Clarify Your Purpose: Take the time to clearly define your purpose, encompassing both your family and business goals. This clarity can help guide your decisions and actions, aligning them with your overall vision.2. Embrace Self-Awareness and Reflection: Incorporate daily, weekly, and monthly reflection to gain a deeper understanding of your actions, decisions, and failures. Having this self-awareness can help you identify areas for improvement and develop a more intentional approach to your journey.3. Join a Supportive Peer Group: Seek out a peer group that can challenge, inspire, and support your personal and professional growth. Building a strong network of individuals who can elevate your journey can accelerate your success and provide valuable perspectives.4. Invest in Intentional Growth: Intentionally invest in the growth of your marriage and familial relationships. Align your personal identity as a builder with the purpose of nurturing and developing your family, finding fulfilment in their growth and success.5. Control the Controllables: Focus your energy on what you can control, whether it's in your business, personal life, or financial decisions. By making strategic moves and maintaining an optimistic mindset, you can navigate uncertainties and work towards overall success.Learn More: Visit The Few With Boo website to find additional resources, related episodes, and more valuable content from Chaz Wolfe. https://www.fewpodcast.comConnect with Chaz Wolfe: Website - https://www.chazwolfe.com/LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/chaz-wolfe-86767054/YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/@chazwolfeGathering the Kings Podcast:  https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/gathering-the-kings/id1606811423

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you'll join host Melina Palmer as she dives into the fascinating topic of cognitive overload and its impact on decision-making. Melina's expertise in behavioral economics and decision science makes her the perfect guide to help you understand how an overwhelmed brain can hinder your ability to make rational choices. She shares insightful strategies for reducing cognitive load, allowing you to improve your decision-making skills and make better choices in all aspects of life. With her engaging storytelling and relatable examples, Melina will captivate your attention and leave you with practical tools to overcome cognitive overload. Whether you're seeking personal growth or professional development, this episode is a must-listen for anyone looking to enhance their decision-making abilities and reduce cognitive overwhelm. In this episode, you will: Gain a clear understanding of how cognitive overload impacts your decision-making, so you can make more informed choices and avoid costly mistakes. Explore effective strategies for reducing cognitive load, enabling you to think more clearly and efficiently, leading to improved decision-making and increased productivity. Discover practical ways to overcome overwhelm and improve your overall productivity, so you can achieve your goals with a focused and calm mindset. Recognize the importance of clear communication and goal setting in decision-making, empowering you to align your actions with your objectives for more successful outcomes. Learn how to address post-completion error and reduce overwhelm, ensuring that you can navigate complex tasks and projects without feeling overwhelmed or making avoidable mistakes. Understand the power of prioritization and effective time management in decision-making, enabling you to allocate your resources wisely and make quality choices that align with your long-term objectives. Uncover the impact of information overload on decision-making and explore strategies to filter and prioritize information, allowing you to make better decisions in today's fast-paced world. Gain insights into decision-making biases and learn techniques to overcome them, helping you minimize the influence of cognitive biases on your choices and improve your rational decision-making abilities. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Melina introduces the episode on the overwhelmed brain and its impact on decision-making. She highlights the importance of reducing cognitive load and provides insights on how show notes and videos can help alleviate overwhelm. 00:02:26 - The Power of Show Notes Melina explains the significance of show notes in helping listeners retain information. She emphasizes that having access to detailed show notes and videos allows the brain to relax and focus on the content, leading to better decision-making. 00:06:29 - The Chocolate Cake Study Melina discusses a study where participants were asked to remember either a two-digit or seven-digit number. The results showed that those with the higher cognitive load were more likely to choose chocolate cake as a snack. This highlights how overwhelm can influence decision-making towards instant gratification. 00:09:36 - Ignoring Complexity Melina explains how our brains tend to ignore tasks that are deemed too complex or overwhelming. She discusses the brain's preference for simplicity and how it relies on subconscious rules of thumb to make decisions. This has implications for understanding why our brains get overwhelmed and how it affects decision-making. 00:11:25 - Overwhelm and Performance Melina explores how overwhelm can negatively impact performance. She references Dan Ariely's book, The Upside of Irrationality, which highlights how the weight of high stakes and pressure can impair cognitive function and lead to worse performance. This underscores the importance of managing overwhelm to optimize decision-making. 00:16:01 - Introduction and Traveling Checklist Melina introduces herself and discusses her packing routine for important trips, highlighting the tendency to obsessively run through lists in her head. She emphasizes the importance of relieving overwhelm from the conscious brain and shares her personal experience of forgetting to close the garage door. 00:17:48 - Post-completion Error and Overwhelming Tasks Melina explains the concept of post-completion error, where the brain marks a task as complete when only some or most of it has been done. She relates this to personal examples such as leaving clothes in the washing machine all day. She encourages the use of checklists and sticky notes to combat overwhelm. 00:20:17 - Relieving Overwhelm in Work and Personal Life Melina urges listeners to find ways to relieve overwhelm in both their work and personal lives. She suggests simple strategies like using sticky notes and establishing routines to help manage tasks effectively. She also emphasizes the importance of being a resource to customers by helping them alleviate overwhelm. 00:20:58 - Overwhelming Customers Melina prompts listeners to reflect on whether they are overwhelming their current or potential customers. She advises considering the amount of information being presented and the order in which it is presented. If customers feel overwhelmed, they may hesitate or delay making decisions. 00:32:15 - Overcoming Constant Updates Constantly checking for updates can make the whole experience feel jaded. Instead, lenders can provide proactive updates to make customers feel valued and informed, while also avoiding unnecessary interruptions. 00:33:17 - Bringing Value and Endearment Proactive updates not only benefit customers but also help lenders prioritize their tasks and avoid wasting time. It creates a sense of reciprocity, which can be beneficial when asking for referrals or reviews. 00:34:14 - Tips to Overcome Overwhelm The five tips to overcome overwhelm are: write things down, focus on one task at a time, create patterns or habits, set goals, and incorporate breathing room and checkpoints. 00:35:03 - Getting Things Out of Your Head Getting things out of your head is crucial to avoid overwhelm. Don't rely on your memory and limit your focus and goals to reduce stress. 00:37:45 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Anatomy of a Breakthrough, by Adam Alter Fierce Conversations, by Susan Scott Happier Hour, by Cassie Holmes Work Well. Play More! by Marcey Rader Come Up For Air, by Nick Sonnenberg Top Recommended Next Episode: Expect Error: The “E” in NUDGES (ep 362) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Give Feedback: The “G” in NUDGES (ep 40) How to Set, Achieve and Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) DOSE Brain Chemicals (ep 123) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Time Discounting (ep 328) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Cassie Holmes Interview (ep 257) Marcey Rader Interview (ep 323) Nick Sonnenberg Interview (ep 347) Sludge (ep 179) Friction (ep 274) Ben Guttmann Interview (ep 351) Behavioral Economics Foundations: Habits (ep 256) Behavioral Economics Foundations: Reciprocity (ep 23) Behavioral Economics Foundations: Sense of Sight (ep 24) Behavioral Economics Foundations: The Sense of Smell (ep 298) Resolutions and Keeping Commitments (ep 29) Mirror Neurons (ep 31) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Heart and Mind in Conflict: the Interplay of Affect and Cognition in Consumer Decision Making Poverty Impedes Cognitive Function How Writing To-Do Lists Helps Your Brain (Whether Or Not You Finish Them)

Melina Palmer invites Jessica Wilson of Imotions to discuss the fascinating world of neuroscience tools for consumer research. Jessica's in research and neuroscience led them to Imotions, a software company that offers a platform integrating various neuroscience tools. The platform includes a study builder, analysis tools, and export options, catering to both commercial and academic clients. Jessica emphasizes the importance of matching the research question with the appropriate technology, rather than being swayed by the allure of shiny gadgets.  She highlights the value of using eye tracking, facial expression analysis, and skin conductance as a powerful combination of tools, known as the "Holy Trinity." However, she also mentions the availability of other tools, such as EEG and heart rate monitoring, depending on the specific research needs. Jessica shares examples of video testing and usability studies, showcasing how these tools can provide insights into consumer behavior, attention, and emotional responses. She emphasizes the importance of using the gathered data to inform design decisions and improve consumer experiences. The conversation concludes with a discussion of real-world applications, including collaborations with universities and healthcare organizations. In this episode: Discover how neuroscience tools can revolutionize consumer research and unlock deep insights into consumer behavior. Uncover the hidden motivations behind consumer decisions using cutting-edge eye tracking and facial expression analysis techniques. Optimize your website design with confidence by leveraging user testing to identify usability issues and improve user experiences. Learn the importance of crafting clear research questions to drive effective user testing and obtain actionable insights. Boost user engagement and trust with shorter, impactful testimonials that capture attention and increase conversion rates. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Melina Palmer introduces the podcast and shares her excitement about conducting research and experiments with Imotions to optimize her website pages. 00:02:36 - Introduction to Imotions Jessica Wilson, the director at Imotions, shares information about the company and their platform. She discusses the wide range of applications for their neuroscience tools, including consumer insights, product testing, ad testing, and more. 00:07:43 - Types of Testing with Imotions Jessica explains the different types of testing that can be done with Imotions, including eye tracking, facial expression analysis, and skin conductance. She emphasizes the importance of using the right tools based on research questions and not getting caught up in the excitement of technology. 00:08:31 - The Holy Trinity of Eye Tracking, Facial Expression Analysis, and Skin Conductance Jessica discusses the Holy Trinity of eye tracking, facial expression analysis, and skin conductance. These three tools work well together to provide information on attention, valence, and physiological arousal. She mentions that there are additional tools available, but it's important to choose the right ones based on research questions. 00:10:42 - Consultation and Planning with Imotions Jessica highlights the importance of consultation and planning with Imotions. They offer guidance on choosing the right tools and metrics for specific research questions. The research question should dictate the technology used, rather than the other 00:15:12 - Video Testing with Biosensor Data Jessica discusses how video testing can be used with biosensor data to assess consumer preferences and improve communication. They share an example of a collaboration between the University of South Florida and BayCare Health Systems to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 infomercials on consumers. 00:16:46 - Usability and Sensory Testing Jessica explains how biosensor research can be utilized in usability and sensory testing. They mention using biosensors to assess people's reactions to different food samples and how the most effective testing methods have distinct research questions and variables. 00:18:14 - Free Scrolling and Task-Based Testing Melina and Jessica discuss the different approaches to testing, including free scrolling to observe natural behavior and task-based testing to compare prototypes. They emphasize the importance of incorporating specific tasks into usability studies for websites. 00:21:08 - Redesigning a Website Melina shares her experience of redesigning her website in preparation for her book launch. They discuss the process of testing mockups of the new site against the existing site to determine if design changes were effective and if any adjustments were needed. 00:24:46 - Testing for Different Personas Jessica explains how they incorporated different personas into the testing process. They discuss the two personas targeted by the host's business, entrepreneurial types, and corporate members, and how the testing aimed to direct each persona to the most relevant products and services. 00:29:38 - Importance of Clear Tasks in Website Testing Narrowing down tasks and evaluating if they are working is crucial in website testing. Asking vague questions about users' interests and actions can reveal where they get stuck. It's important to avoid priming users and instead focus on finding potential obstacles. 00:31:13 - The Power of Focusing on One Thing in Research Research should focus on one or two variables to obtain clear answers. Avoiding distractions and confounding variables leads to stronger insights. Rushing research can result in missed opportunities for valuable insights. 00:33:20 - Effective Design Elements for Website Success Salient design elements like big buttons with clear choices greatly improve the success rate of website interactions. Eye tracking and behavioral metrics demonstrate the impact of design clarity on user engagement. 00:34:57 - Challenges with Corporate Persona Landing Page The corporate landing page proved challenging for users, leading to confusion and distributed attention. Brow furrow and lower success rates indicated a need for clearer design elements and more effective funneling of actions. 00:37:16 - Applying Insights from Testing to Website Redesign Insights from the previous tests informed the redesign of the entire website. Big buttons, clear choices, and reducing cognitive load were integrated into other areas of the site, improving user experience. 00:43:23 - Eye Tracking Results: Less is More The study found that participants spent more time looking at the short testimonials compared to the long ones. They also showed less brow furrow and had a better overall experience with the shorter testimonials. This suggests that less text is more effective in capturing attention and providing a positive user experience. 00:45:37 - Importance of Short Testimonials The research showed that shorter testimonials are more effective in capturing attention and creating anticipation for the product. Participants were able to absorb the positive feedback more easily and had a better overall experience. Short testimonials provide social proof without overwhelming the users with excessive text. 00:46:56 - Evolution of Data Collection Technology The pandemic and the shift towards collecting data in naturalistic environments have led to the development of online data collection platforms. These platforms allow researchers to record facial expression analysis and eye-tracking data using webcams, eliminating the need for specialized equipment. This opens up new possibilities for remote data collection and collaboration. 00:49:20 - Tips for Conducting Experiments When conducting experiments, it's important to keep them small, be thoughtful about what to test, and test often. Focus on the most important aspects, avoid testing too many variables at once, and have a clear understanding of what you want to achieve. Testing helps understand and predict human behavior. 00:52:22 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Imotions: IMOTIONS WEBSITE IMOTIONS ON TWITTER IMOTIONS ON LINKEDIN Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Truth About Pricing, Melina Palmer What Your Customer Want and Can't Tell You, Melina Palmer Marketing to Mindstates, Will Leach Designing for Behavior Change, Stephen Wendel Engaged, Amy Bucher Top Recommended Next Episode: Understanding the Problem (ep 126) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Inside the Texas A&M Human Behavior Lab (ep 33) Social Proof (ep 87) The Power of Metaphors with Olson Zaltman's Malcolm & Hannibal Brooks (ep 181) Cloud Army (ep 183) How To Set Up Your Own Experiments (ep 63) Priming (ep 18) What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You: All About Melina's First Book (ep 147) What is Behavioral Baking? (ep 155) How Businesses Can Design for Behavior Change, with Dr. Amy Bucher (ep 164) Designing for Behavior Change, Interview with Dr. Steve Wendel (ep 116) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Time Discounting (ep 51) Framing (ep 16) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

The "lollapalooza" effect (coined by Charlie Munger) occurs when multiple other effects have a compounded outcome that tends to create an extreme situation.In this episode, we discuss lollapalooza effects and how you might fall victim to them, and more importantly, how you can use them to your advantage.

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you'll hear Melina Palmer interview Nick Sonnenberg, CEO of Leverage and author of Come Up For Air. Nick's background as an algorithmic trader on Wall Street gave him a unique perspective on the value of time, efficiency, and automation. He developed the CPR business efficiency framework to address common challenges in communication, planning, and resource allocation.  Nick's expertise in optimizing operations led to the founding of Leverage, a consultancy that helps businesses increase productivity using modern technologies and tools. Throughout the episode, Nick emphasizes the importance of time optimization and information retrieval. He shares practical strategies, such as the Foundations program, which teaches teams how to use tools like email, Slack, and Asana effectively. By implementing Nick's insights, you can save time, reduce stress, and increase productivity in your business. Tune in to learn how to streamline your operations and make the most of your valuable resources. In this episode, you will: Increase operational efficiency and productivity to maximize your business's growth potential. Learn effective time management strategies to optimize your productivity and achieve your business goals. Streamline your operations and processes to eliminate bottlenecks and improve overall efficiency. Optimize information retrieval and storage to access critical data quickly and make informed business decisions. Find the balance between work and play to enhance your overall well-being and maintain sustainable productivity. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, In this episode, Melina Palmer introduces Nick Sonnenberg, CEO of Leverage and author of Come Up For Air. Nick shares his background in finance and how his experience in high-frequency trading led him to develop a passion for automation and the value of time. 00:02:30 - The Journey of Leverage Nick discusses the growth and challenges faced by Leverage, his operational efficiency consultancy. He shares how he overcame operational debt and realized that the key to success lies in saving time and maximizing efficiency. 00:05:05 - The CPR Business Efficiency Framework Nick explains the CPR framework (Communicate, Plan, Resource) and how it can help organizations improve their efficiency. He highlights the importance of effective communication, planning, and standard operating procedures in saving time and increasing productivity. 00:07:28 - Getting Started with Efficiency Nick advises listeners on where to start when seeking to make efficiency improvements. He suggests focusing on areas that offer the highest return on time and recommends starting with the Foundations program, which helps align teams on information management and retrieval. 00:15:56 - The Power of Shifting Perspective Shifting your perspective and approach can lead to increased productivity and efficiency without the need for approval or new tools. By organizing your email and having a plan, you can set yourself up for success and inspire others to do the same. 00:16:55 - The Value of Time and Cutting Meetings The book emphasizes the importance of saving and optimizing time. Not all time slots are equal, and it's crucial to identify high-value time slots. By implementing strategies like pre-reading materials and using tools like Loom, meetings can be more efficient and productive. 00:21:18 - Leveraging Loom and Asynchronous Communication Loom, a screen recording tool, can help save time by allowing for asynchronous communication. Watching recordings at an accelerated speed and having the ability to rewatch can increase efficiency. Loom also facilitates discussions and comments, even outside of meetings. 00:23:44 - Understanding Your Bandwidth with Sprint Planning Sprint planning involves determining your capacity for work and considering pre-commitments like meetings and maintenance tasks. By recognizing how much time is actually available for new initiatives, you can set realistic goals and increase productivity. 00:24:11 - The Impact of Optimizing Time Optimizing time can lead to significant improvements in productivity. By reclaiming even just a few hours a week, you can effectively double the amount of time available for new initiatives. Recognizing the value of time can drive the implementation of time-saving strategies. 00:30:43 - Introduction to GetLeverage.com Nick Sonnenberg introduces his training and consulting company, GetLeverage.com, which helps businesses train and use various tools effectively. 00:31:19 - Benefits of GetLeverage.com Nick Sonnenberg highlights how GetLeverage.com can save businesses time and money by providing training and optimizing processes. 00:32:01 - Importance of Policies and Procedures Nick Sonnenberg emphasizes the significance of having optimized procedures and processes in place to facilitate business growth and efficiency. 00:33:30 - Focus on Quick Retrieval of Information Nick Sonnenberg suggests focusing on the quick retrieval of information rather than the quick transfer of information, as it saves time and improves productivity. 00:34:51 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Nick: Follow Nick on Twitter Follow Nick on LinkedIn Leverage website Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Come Up For Air, by Nick Sonnenberg Work Well. Play More! by Marcey Rader Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Subtract, by Leidy Klotz What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Top Recommended Next Episode: Work Well. Play More! with Marcey Rader (ep 323) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Indistractable, with Nir Eyal (ep 290) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Time Discounting (ep 328) Loss Aversion (ep 316) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Fundamental Attribution Error (ep 268) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Confirmation Bias (ep 260) How To Start and Grow a Successful Podcast (ep 108) How to Organize Your Brain with Behavioral Economics (ep 83) Expect Error, the “E” in NUDGES (ep 39) Anchoring & Adjustment (ep 11) Habits (ep 256) Good Habits, Bad Habits, with Wendy Wood (ep 127) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Come Up For Air website

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you'll join host Melina Palmer as she dives into the fascinating topic of the planning fallacy. Melina shares her personal experiences with underestimating the time it takes to complete tasks and projects, revealing that even she, an expert in the field, is not immune to this cognitive bias. But fear not, because Melina also provides valuable strategies to combat the planning fallacy and improve your planning accuracy. From seeking external perspectives to breaking tasks into smaller steps, she offers practical advice that you can implement in your own life. Whether you struggle with accurately estimating time or simply want to enhance your productivity, this episode is a must-listen. So get ready to tackle the planning fallacy head-on and start maximizing your time and efficiency. In this episode: Maximize productivity by understanding the planning fallacy and its impact on time estimation. Learn effective strategies to combat the planning fallacy and accurately estimate project timelines. Improve planning accuracy and avoid delays caused by underestimating the time needed for tasks. Unpack complex projects into manageable tasks for more accurate time allocation. Overcome the challenges of planning fallacy when dealing with large-scale projects. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Melina introduces the concept of planning fallacy and explains how it affects our ability to estimate the time and effort required for tasks. She also mentions her upcoming conversation with Nick Sonnenberg and how his book, Come Up for Air, inspired her to refresh this episode. 00:02:16 - The Foundations of Planning Fallacy Melina discusses how planning fallacy was first introduced by Kahneman and Tversky in 1979. They found that errors in judgment were systematic and not random, indicating a bias in the brain. Planning fallacy affects all kinds of people, even experts, and it can be difficult to overcome. 00:05:05 - Why We Fall Victim to Planning Fallacy Melina explains that the brain is naturally inclined to focus on success and underestimate the possibility of failure. We tend to believe that things will go smoothly and that we can do it all, leading to unrealistic expectations and missed deadlines. Even having deadlines and incentives doesn't necessarily help. 00:08:54 - Biases Contributing to Planning Fallacy Melina discusses several biases and brain tricks that contribute to planning fallacy, including the focusing illusion and fundamental attribution error. The focusing illusion causes us to allocate different amounts of time based on what we're currently focused on, while fundamental attribution error leads us to attribute external or internal factors incorrectly. 00:15:57 - The Myth of 8 Hours of Writing Writing for 8 hours straight is not actually 8 hours of writing. Taking breaks and getting distracted reduces the actual writing time. A suggested technique is to write for 25 minutes and then take a 5-minute break, repeating this cycle. This helps to combat planning fallacy and increase productivity. 00:17:43 - The Impact of Distractions and Breaks Distractions and breaks, such as emails and unexpected projects, further decrease writing time. Considering these interruptions, a planned 8-hour writing day may result in only 4.5 hours of actual writing. This means that the anticipated 32 pages would be reduced to only 18. 00:19:47 - Planning for Worst Case Scenario To overcome planning fallacy, it is crucial to plan for the worst case scenario. By allocating a realistic amount of time for productive writing and acknowledging potential distractions, you can avoid beating yourself up over unmet expectations. Celebrate achieving your planned writing time. 00:21:51 - Urgent vs Important Tasks The urgent vs important grid helps prioritize tasks. Determine if a task is important, urgent, both, or neither. This framework helps in dismissing distractions by asking if they are truly important and urgent compared to the planned task. Planning for distractions helps stick to timelines and overcome planning fallacy. 00:31:48 - Understanding the Planning Fallacy Launching a podcast involves various tasks that may seem quick and easy on the surface. However, breaking them down into subtasks reveals the true complexity of the process. Properly allocating time and planning for each subtask can help reduce stress and ensure completion without overcommitting. 00:33:48 - The Power of Unpacking Unpacking tasks into their smallest subcomponents is essential for complex projects like launching a podcast. Simple tasks may not benefit as much from unpacking, but for larger projects, it helps in understanding the full scope and allocating sufficient time for each task. 00:34:27 - Overcoming Planning Fallacy Planning fallacy is a natural tendency that affects everyone. Being aware of this tendency and using the tips mentioned in the episode can help overcome it. Having a trusted friend or colleague to keep you in check is also crucial in avoiding overcommitment and excessive work. 00:35:11 - Personal Experience with Planning Fallacy Melina admits to constantly struggling with planning fallacy despite her knowledge of it. However, understanding its existence and finding ways to manage it can prevent continuous overcommitment and excessive work. 00:36:22 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Come Up For Air, by Nick Sonnenberg Work Well. Play More! by Marcey Rader Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Subtract, by Leidy Klotz What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Top Recommended Next Episode: Work Well. Play More! with Marcey Rader (ep 323) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Indistractable, with Nir Eyal (ep 290) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Time Discounting (ep 328) Loss Aversion (ep 316) Focusing Illusion (ep 330) Fundamental Attribution Error (ep 268) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Confirmation Bias (ep 260) How To Start and Grow a Successful Podcast (ep 108) How to Organize Your Brain with Behavioral Economics (ep 83) Expect Error, the “E” in NUDGES (ep 39) Anchoring & Adjustment (ep 11) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter The Planning Fallacy: Getting Things Done Can the outside‐view approach improve planning decisions in software development projects? The Planning Fallacy: When Plans Lead to Optimistic Forecasts Exploring the Planning Fallacy: Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times A Nobel Prize-Winning Psychologist Explains Why We're Always Wrong About How Long Tasks Take The Planning Fallacy: Why You Miss Your Deadlines, And What to do About it Allocating Time to Future Tasks:The Effect of Task Segmentation on Planning Fallacy Bias Intuitive Prediction: Biases and Corrective Procedures Seattle tunnel construction avoided costly mistakes of Boston's Big Dig Visualization-Mediated Alleviation of the Planning Fallacy If You Don't Want to Be Late, Enumerate: Unpacking Reduces the Planning Fallacy Planning Fallacy

The Goal Smasher Podcast Welcome to The Goal Smasher Podcast, your go-to source for quick and effective 3-minute brain hacks. In this episode, we confront the notorious "Planning Fallacy" and discover how it can sabotage your journey to realistic success. Hosted by Larry Playton and featuring insights from Audrey Lawrence, TEDx Talker and author of "Goal Smasher," this podcast arms you with transformative techniques to break free from the Planning Fallacy's grasp and set achievable goals. Are you tired of setting unrealistic expectations and constantly falling short? Together, we'll explore the science behind this cognitive bias and provide you with practical strategies to plan effectively and reach your objectives. Don't miss this episode as we empower you to escape the Planning Fallacy, overcome self-imposed limitations, and embrace a more realistic path to success. Subscribe now to the Goal Smasher Podcast and experience the power of this dynamic show to optimize your goal-setting. Tune in to witness the transformative impact of effective planning! Join the Goal Smasher Nation, read the book, follow us on social media, and subscribe to the newsletter for free resources at Audreylawrence.org. Keywords: Planning Fallacy, Realistic Success, Goal Smasher, Audrey Lawrence, TED Talks, Transformative Techniques, Empowerment, Dynamic Show, Effective Planning, Overcoming Limitations, Goal Achievement, Escaping the Planning Fallacy.

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, you'll gain valuable insights from Lucie Buisson, the Chief Product Officer at Contentsquare. Lucie's expertise lies in optimizing user experience on websites and mobile apps, and she shares her research and experience to provide practical tips for product managers. By understanding user behavior and identifying their real needs and problems through careful observation and analysis, businesses can create a more effective and engaging user experience.  Lucie also emphasizes the importance of data-driven decision making, testing assumptions, and balancing quick wins with long-term projects. Additionally, she discusses the challenges of scaling a company and offers valuable insights on maintaining clear communication and team cohesion during periods of growth and change. Whether you're a product manager looking to improve user experience or interested in the dynamics of scaling a company, this episode provides valuable knowledge and actionable strategies. In this episode: Uncover actionable insights from user data analysis to drive strategic decision-making and optimize user experience. Strike a balance between quick wins and long-term projects to continually improve product performance and customer satisfaction. Gain a deeper understanding of user behavior through data analysis, going beyond customer feedback alone to make informed product decisions. Navigate the challenges and considerations of scaling a tech company, unlocking opportunities for growth and success. Recognize the impact of time discounting on user behavior and explore strategies to effectively engage and retain customers. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, In this episode, host Melina Palmer introduces Lucie Buisson, the Chief Product Officer at Content Square. She discusses Lucie's role in the company's growth and the mission of Contentsquare to make the digital world more human. 00:02:07 - Scaling a Company, Lucie shares her insights on scaling a company, emphasizing the importance of adaptability while staying true to the company's vision and goals. She also highlights the challenges of transitioning from a small team to a larger organization. 00:06:27 - Understanding Behavior, Content Square's technology collects anonymous user interactions to understand customer behavior and preferences. Lucie emphasizes the importance of focusing on customer intent and providing personalized online experiences that mimic the positive aspects of in-store shopping. 00:08:31 - Challenges of Scaling, Lucie discusses the challenges of scaling a company, including the need to define roles and maintain a shared vision as the organization grows. She also highlights the importance of explicit communication in a larger team. 00:11:34 - Scientific Approach to Customer Understanding, Lucie emphasizes the scientific approach to understanding customers and the importance of data-driven decision-making. She discusses the role of data analysis in product management and the need for empirical evidence rather than opinions. 00:18:06 - The Power of Contentsquare, Contentsquare allows users to gain insights and identify website performance issues without knowing exactly what they're looking for. Unlike tagging plans, Contentsquare collects every interaction on a website, providing a more exploratory approach to understanding customer behavior. 00:19:46 - Prioritizing the Most Important Problems, Contentsquare's reports provide valuable information without users having to choose what to analyze in advance. By presenting click rates on every element of a webpage, users can identify areas of improvement without bias. Solving the most pressing problems yields the greatest impact. 00:24:47 - Finding Simple Fixes with Significant Results, Customer assumptions about what needs to be fixed often lead to massive and time-consuming projects. However, Contentsquare can reveal simple fixes like optimizing a landing page's hero image or call-to-action placement, resulting in substantial improvements and revenue opportunities. 00:27:31 - Balancing Voice of Customer Feedback, While Voice of Customer (VOC) tools provide valuable feedback, it often comes from extreme ends of the satisfaction spectrum. Contentsquare helps differentiate between isolated incidents and symptomatic behavior by tying VOC feedback to session replays. This allows users to prioritize actions based on quantifiable impact. 00:30:42 - The Iterative Cycle of Innovation, Contentsquare serves as the middle piece in a cycle of innovation. By understanding why customers struggle and making changes to address those issues, users can then use experimentation tools like A/B testing to analyze the impact of their modifications. 00:34:38 - Understanding Future Behavior, People often answer questions about their future behavior based on what they hope to be, not necessarily what they will actually do. Our predictions about our future selves are often different from our current behaviors, and this should be taken into account when designing products and experiences. 00:35:36 - Customer Feedback and Implementation, When gathering customer feedback, it's important to ask the right questions. Customers may say they want a new feature, but that doesn't necessarily mean they will use it. Implementing unnecessary features can overcomplicate the user experience and deter usage. 00:37:47 - Testing and Understanding Behavior, Testing and understanding user behavior is crucial for optimizing experiences. A case study from Netflix shows that what people say they want may not align with their actual behavior. It's important to go beyond customer requests and truly understand their needs and motivations. 00:40:36 - Balancing Customer Requests and Solutions, While it's important to listen to customer feedback, it's equally important to go beyond their requests and find innovative solutions to their problems. Product managers should balance quick wins with long-term projects and use their expertise to identify the best solutions. 00:43:37 - Optimizing Website Experience, To optimize website experiences, start by listening to customers and identifying small signals of behavior. Quantify the impact of these behaviors and find a balance between quick wins and long-term improvements. Understanding the customer while also leveraging product expertise is key to success. 00:46:09 -  Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Connect with Lucie: Follow Lucie on LinkedIn Contentsquare on Twitter Contentsquare Website Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: The Voltage Effect, by John LIst What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Continuous Discovery Habits, by Teresa Torres Friction, by Roger Dooley What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Top Recommended Next Episode: The Voltage Effect, with John List (ep 190) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Peloton: A Behavioral Economics Analysis (ep 338) Friction, with Roger Dooley (ep 274) Sludge (ep 179) Choice Architecture and NUDGES (ep 35) Priming (ep 252) The Dunning-Kruger Effect (ep 266) Habits (ep 256) Your Future Self, with Hal Hershfield (ep 329) Time Discounting (ep 328) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Planning Fallacy (ep 346) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter

Hey there, busy secondary teachers! Feeling overwhelmed with your never-ending to-do list? Well, this week's episode of The Secondary Teacher Podcast is here to save the day.Join me as we dive into the infamous planning fallacy and how it sneaks its way into our lives, causing us to underestimate our planning time. Discover practical strategies to combat this issue and finally regain control of your planning periods. Let's tackle this planning challenge together. It's time to thrive as a multiple prep teacher!Download my FREE course planning cheat sheet: https://khristenmassic.com/semesterShop my Teachers Pay Teachers store: https://www.teacherspayteachers.com/Store/Khristen-Massic-Cte-Teacher-CoachConnect with me on Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/khristenmassic/Start conquering your overwhelm today with the Ultimate Task Tracker for Busy Teachers: https://khristenmassic.com/tracker

For many of us, planning can be an area of opportunity. We underestimate how much time something will take and how much time we will have available for something, particularly regarding project completion. However, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky explained why we do this, and we will tell you what we can do about it.  Kahneman and Tversky call this phenomenon the Planning Fallacy. Our optimism about our future selves and the abilities and resources available causes it. For this reason, it rarely occurs on a tight timeline; we are far less optimistic about our right-now selves. We know we can't do it right now. There are a few reasons besides optimism that cause this problem, too. For example, we tend to focus on certain details and ignore others (Focalism). Or we might be wishful thinking. We want to finish the project by then, so why not pick that date? In this episode, we explore why so many of us are victims of the Planning Fallacy and what we can do about it in our own work and the work of our organizations. If you listen to this podcast, your future self will thank you.  Here are some other key moments in the discussion: 04:02  We introduce the idea of the Planning Fallacy and explain what it is and how it affects us.  08:15  We discuss why it's different when considering something with a short timeline, meaning an imminent due date.  11:10  Colin shares an example he frequently encounters on Emotional Signature projects, and why it isn't his fault they miss their optimistic deadlines.  19:36  Colin points out that different departments organizationally can contribute to the problem and that these departments should learn The Power of Saying NO. 21:29  Ryan shares more contributing factors to why we victimize our future selves with the Planning Fallacy. 29:42  We share practical advice about what you can do to ensure that your past self doesn't get your future self in a bind.  _________________________________________________________________ Did you know we have a YouTube Channel too? Check it out here. Follow Colin on LinkedIn HERE.

In this episode of The Brainy Business podcast, host Melina Palmer interviews Marcey Rader, author of the book Work Well, Play More. They delve into the importance of habits in achieving efficiency and work-life balance. Marcey shares her personal journey of making small, manageable changes in her life and emphasizes the need to focus on the behaviors underlying productivity. She highlights the value of breaking down goals into smaller tasks and tracking progress to stay motivated. The conversation also covers strategies for setting boundaries, prioritizing tasks, and incorporating movement into daily routines. Whether you're a busy professional looking to enhance your productivity or seeking a better work-life balance, this episode offers actionable advice and inspiration. Don't miss the opportunity to learn from Marcey's expertise and improve your efficiency and overall well-being. In this episode: Uncover the critical crossroads of health, productivity, and behavioral economics, providing an enriched understanding of personal and professional efficiency. Appreciate the transformational power of habits in attaining a meaningful work-life balance, preparing you for a balanced and fruitful lifestyle. Realize the necessity of establishing boundaries and prioritizing tasks, seeding the prevention of potential fatigue and burnout. Delve into the profound significance of immersing oneself in work and taking necessary breaks, instilling a refreshed sense of focus and vigor. Relate to Marcey Rader's personal journey, promoting an invaluable dimension of empathy and connection to her work. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Melina Palmer introduces Marcey Rader, an author and health, productivity, and digital wellness expert. They discuss the importance of health in powering productivity and how habits and behavior change play a significant role in achieving work-life balance. 00:05:16 - Background and Journey, Marcey shares her journey from working in clinical research to becoming a productivity coach and speaker. She talks about how her own struggles with burnout and health issues inspired her to help others find a healthier and more efficient approach to work and life. 00:10:41 - Minimalism and Productivity, Marcey discusses how reading the book The Power of Less by Leo Babauta sparked her interest in minimalism and productivity. She shares how adopting minimalist principles and simplifying her life helped her improve her focus, efficiency, and work-life balance. 00:13:25 - Personal Experience and Empathy, Melina and Marcey emphasize the importance of personal experience and empathy when helping others make behavior changes. They discuss the value of relatability and understanding in guiding individuals towards healthier habits and a more productive lifestyle. 00:14:51 - Overcoming Overwhelm, Melina and Marcey address the feeling of overwhelm that many people experience when trying to make multiple behavior changes at once. They emphasize the importance of breaking changes down into smaller, manageable steps and starting with one area at a time for sustainable progress. 00:16:40 - Making Small Changes for Personal Growth, Marcey Rader shares her method of making personal and behavioral changes by breaking them down into smaller, manageable tasks. She shares her experience of creating a list of 100 things she wanted to change about herself and how she tracked her progress by checking off each task every day. (And, yes, acknowledges this approach may not be for everyone.) 00:19:20 - The Importance of Small Wins, Marcey emphasizes the importance of celebrating small wins and finding quick wins to build momentum. She shares her personal journey of gradually increasing her vegetable intake and how she started with just one serving a day and gradually worked her way up to five or six servings. 00:23:17 - Work Well, Play More Book Overview, Marcey discusses her book, Work Well, Play More, which covers topics of productivity, clutter, and health. The book is divided into twelve months, and each month focuses on a different area with novice, pro, and master levels. It can be used as a guide for making changes at your own pace and choosing your own adventure. 00:28:03 - Tackling Decluttering in Different Areas, Marcey explains how her book caters to different levels of expertise in each area. She shares examples of decluttering tips, such as cleaning up contacts in your phone, and how she personally used the process of decluttering contacts to reconnect with people during the COVID-19 pandemic. 00:30:10 - Top Tips from the Book, Marcey shares a top tip from each section of the book: productivity, health, and clutter. 00:34:59 - Being Flexible with Dietary Restrictions, Marcey shares her experience of being gluten-free for digestive reasons but not wanting to restrict her diet too much. She emphasizes the importance of looking for flexibility and balance in everything, including one's dietary choices. 00:35:36 - Breaking Habits and the Two-Minute Rule, Melina and Marcey discuss the challenge of breaking habits. Marcey shares about OHIO and Melina introduces the concept of the two-minute rule. They explain how tackling small tasks immediately can lead to a significant impact on productivity and organization. 00:37:15 - Organizing Information for the Book, Marcey shares her process of organizing the information for her book by using sticky notes and categorizing them by topic. She explains how this method helped her create a cohesive journey for her readers. 00:42:02 - Working with Companies, Marcey explains her approach when working with companies, which includes assessing their email behaviors, communication, time management, and meeting effectiveness. She also shares an example of implementing "design days" to promote deep focus and productivity within a company. 00:46:58 - Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Work Well, Play More, by Marcey Rader Subtract, by Leidy Klotz The Power of Less, by Leo Babauta Essentialism, by Greg McKeown Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood Connect with Marcey:  Follow Marcey on LinkedIn Follow RaderCo on YouTube RaderCo website Top Recommended Next Episode: Habits (ep 256) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Loss Aversion (ep 316) Good Habits, Bad Habits with Wendy Wood (ep 127) Framing (ep 296) Magic Words, with Jonah Berger (ep 301) Reciprocity (ep 238) The Overwhelmed Brain and Its Impact on Decision Making (ep 32) Priming (ep 252) Solving Modern Problems with a Stone-Age Brain (ep 237) Subtract, with Leidy Klotz (ep 322) Anchoring & Adjustment (ep 11) Bikeshedding (ep 99) How To Change, with Katy Milkman (ep 151) How To Set, Achieve and Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) Indistractible, with Nir Eyal (ep 290) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Get Ready for Act Two, with Kate Gigax (ep 321) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Marcey's Powered Path Playbook Health Powered Productivity podcast

Unraveling Cognitive Biases: Navigating the Planning Fallacy and Parkinson's Law for Ultimate Success Description: In this episode of the Goal Smasher Podcast, we delve into the world of cognitive biases that can either hinder or accelerate your journey to success. Join your host, Larry Playton, as we explore the intricacies of the Planning Fallacy and Parkinson's Law—two cognitive traps that affect how we perceive time and manage tasks. Drawing insights from Audrey Lawrence's book "Goal Smasher," we'll uncover the science behind these biases and provide actionable strategies to harness their power for your advantage. Discover how to set realistic deadlines, break tasks into manageable parts, and negotiate timelines effectively, all while embracing uncertainty and striving for excellence. Tune in to learn how understanding and mastering these biases can propel you toward greater achievements. Keywords: GoalSmasher Podcast, cognitive biases, Planning Fallacy, Parkinson's Law, time management, success strategies, actionable insights, realistic deadlines, task management, uncertainty, excellence, Audrey Lawrence. TED Talker, Goals,

Micah Piippo has worked at Google, at a shipyard, and at a plutonium-processing facility. Now he's a schedule and integration manager with Intel. He helps deliver projects on time. Micah describes the plutonium facility: “It felt like a James Bond lair.” (By the way, Dr. Brown does, indeed, pronounce gigawats as “jigawatts.” That movie was filmed before we all became familiar with the prefix giga in relation to bits and bytes.) You can't get a college degree in construction-project scheduling. There are courses, but Micah says that most of the preparation for this position results from simply asking a lot of questions.He explains that curiosity is a key requirement for an aspiring scheduler. He sees at least two categories within the scheduling world:1) the analytical route with a focus on data crunching and2) the owner's-assisant route that involves more soft skills. At one point he would have said that construction knowledge was needed, but he says that that's not necessarily the case right now because the job market is so hot.Eddie asks if schedulers find themselves getting blame when things go poorly and minimal credit when things go well. Micah confirms that, yup, this is generally the case. He says that he needs to have several jobs where he finds millions of dollars in savings in order to compensate for the couple smaller oversights that result in worksite chaos.Scheduling is undergoing a shift right now, Micah says. The computer programs used in the past couple decades basically accelerated implementation of the algorithms that had been established in the 50s and 60s. Now, he says, a whole new world of potential is being unlocked.Micah mentions the two streams or approaches he sees currently:Capture (of progress status): Slap on a 360 camera and (if you're loaded) Lidar - Software will then assist you in establishing the status of a project.Advance Computer: Employ large-language models, ML curves, and other computer programs capture massive amounts of data to optimize the scheduling process.The golden egg Micah longs for is full integration of the advanced mode described above with the design process, so the design-scheduling process becomes seamless. Micah mentions that many owners don't have advanced scheduling software. Most of the scheduling gets done by a duo consisting of a project manager and superintendent. Owners struggle to see the value in bringing in a scheduling specialist. His favorite thing is when a GC comes in with a vision of how their project is going to go.When it comes to plan/schedule integration, Micah explains that there's far more detail in the schedule than there ever needs to be in a plan. The challenge is closing that gap.Eddie mentions that some of the plan/scheduling-integration claims that companies make really function simply as marketing ploys. These tools and capabilities are often not truly employed when boots are on the ground at the worksite.Micah discusses what he calls the planning fallacy and explains three steps that are used to avoid them:Reference-class forecastingPull planningBreaking the large down to the smallEddie and Tyler follow up with their own thoughts about the planning fallacy, including a recent example about a home-improvement project. Micah advocates for the creation of a federally managed and openly shared data set of all construction projects. He believes this would dramatically increase efficiency.Micah's Two-Part Megaphone Message: -Find the good in what people are doing, and promote it. You're at work 8-12 hours a day. Be an advocate for the people who are there beside you.-Plan long. Think about your decisions and the long-term implications. Your attitude will change, driving your actions differently.Find Micah Online: LinkedIN - Micah's podcast, Beyond DeadlinesCheck out the partners that make our show possible. Find Us Online: BrosPodcast.com - LinkedIn - Youtube - Instagram - Facebook - TikTok - Eddie's LinkedIn - Tyler's LinkedInIf you enjoy the podcast, please rate us on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to us! Thanks for listening

Breaking Free from the Planning Fallacy: Avoiding Self-Sabotage and Embracing Success - The Goal Smasher Podcast" In this episode, we tackle the crucial topic of "The Planning Fallacy" and explore how it can lead us to self-sabotage and hinder our path to success. Join us as we unravel the psychology behind this common cognitive bias and discover practical strategies to overcome it. Are you tired of underestimating the time and effort required for your goals? Together, we'll delve into the reasons why we fall victim to the planning fallacy and equip you with powerful techniques to plan more effectively. Don't miss this eye-opening episode as we empower you to break free from self-imposed limitations and embrace a more realistic approach to success. Subscribe now and experience the power of this dynamic show to avoid the planning fallacy and achieve remarkable results! Tune in to the Goal Smasher Podcast and witness the transformative impact of effective planning. Join the Goal Smasher Nation, Read the book, follow on social, and subscribe to the newsletter for free resources at Audreylawrence.org. Keywords: Planning Fallacy, Self-Sabotage, Success, Goal Achievement, Cognitive Bias, Realistic Planning, Transformative Techniques, Empowering, Dynamic Show, Effective Planning, Overcoming Limitations, Goal Smasher, Audrey Lawrence.

Kali ini, saya membahas mengapa proyek seringkali mengalami keterlambatan dan melebihi jadwal yang telah ditentukan? Apakah kamu pernah mengalami fenomena ini saat bekerja pada sebuah proyek? Ketika kamu sudah menyusun jadwal, namun sayangnya proyek tersebut tertunda atau tidak selesai sesuai harapan. Hal ini sering terjadi, terutama pada proyek-proyek besar. Apa yang salah? Mungkin ada hubungannya dengan planning fallacy, yaitu bias kognitif yang membuat seseorang atau organisasi mengabaikan waktu, sumber daya, dan usaha yang sebenarnya diperlukan untuk menyelesaikan sebuah proyek. Saya akan membahas dengan detail mengenai planning fallacy, pengaruhnya pada manajemen waktu, dan bagaimana mengatur waktu dengan efektif dalam menghadapi tantangan proyek. Saksikan video ini untuk memahami lebih dalam mengapa proyek sering terlambat dan bagaimana menghindari jebakan planning fallacy. Leave a comment and share your thoughts: https://open.firstory.me/user/clhb6d0v60kms01w226gw80p4/comments Powered by Firstory Hosting

Dealing with distractions is a common challenge that many professionals face in their everyday lives. Traction (the opposite of distraction) is the force that drives us towards our goals and objectives, keeping us focused on the tasks that really matter. In order to combat distractions, it's vital to create a plan that outlines the necessary steps for achieving success. This includes setting clear objectives and breaking down goals into manageable tasks, while also allocating specific time for relaxation or personal enjoyment.  By doing so, individuals can achieve a balanced life that fosters productivity and happiness. During this conversation with host Melina Palmer, Nir Eyal emphasized the importance of distinguishing between distraction and traction. Contrary to popular belief, the opposite of distraction isn't focus, but rather traction. Eyal explained that distractions are anything that pulls us away from our true goals, while traction is any action that brings us closer to achieving them. He urged listeners to create schedules that align with their values and to stick with them, ensuring that they devote the necessary time and focus to what truly matters. Enhance concentration through gaining traction and structured planning to mitigate distractions. Utilize technology with intention for peak productivity and enriching personal experiences. Overcome internal triggers by comprehending the nature of discomfort and controlling urges. Create value-driven schedules to bolster time management and sharpen focus. Employ tactical tools and approaches to curb the influence of digital distractions. Show Notes: 00:00:00 - Introduction, Melina Palmer introduces the episode and the guest, Nir Eyal, who is a behavioral designer. She talks about how Nir's book, Indistractable, helps people overcome distractions and become more productive. 00:04:30 - Personal Reason for Writing Indistractable, Nir Eyal shares his personal reason for writing Indistractable. He talks about how he was distracted by his phone while spending time with his daughter. Research and personal testing made him realize the problem was much deeper than just technology. He decided to explore the root cause of distraction and find an answer that actually worked. 00:09:40 - Distraction is an Old Problem, Nir talks about how distraction is not a new problem and has been with us for at least the past 2500 years. He explains how people have always blamed various forms of entertainment and technology for distracting them, and how it's lazy thinking to blame technology for distraction without understanding the root cause. 00:11:14 - The Opposite of Distraction is Traction, Nir Eyal explains that the opposite of distraction is not focus, but traction. He defines traction as any action that pulls you towards what you want to do, and distraction as any action that pulls you away from what you plan to do. He emphasizes the importance of understanding the difference between the two. 00:12:27 - Tools for Finding Balance, Nir Eyal talks about the importance of finding balance when it comes to using technology. He shares some tips and tricks anyone can use to help with this (a tiny sample of all the resources in his book). 00:13:47 - Understanding Distractions and Traction, Nir Eyal explains that distraction is anything that pulls us away from what we planned to do and anything can be a distraction. Conversely, anything can be traction if we make time for it and plan it according to our values. Becoming indistractable means living with personal integrity and knowing why we got distracted. 00:18:28 - The Root Cause of Distraction, Eyal identifies the root cause of distraction as our inability to deal with discomfort in a healthy manner. We use distraction as psychological pacification and escape uncomfortable emotions. To become indistractable, we must first learn to deal with the discomfort in a healthy way by fixing the source of discomfort or finding ways to cope. 00:19:48 - Human Motivation, Nir explains that human motivation is not about the pursuit of pleasure and avoidance of pain but rather spurred by discomfort. We have two neural circuits, the liking system and the wanting system. The purpose of the wanting system is to create discomfort to get us to act. Time management is pain management, and to master distractions, we must first master internal triggers. 00:22:21 - Time Management and Addiction, Addiction isn't just about substances or behaviors but is more about our need to escape from discomfort. We must fix the source of discomfort or learn to deal with it in a healthier way. Eyal shares the story of Dr. Zoe Chance, who became temporarily addicted to her pedometer as she was using it to escape her life. 00:27:21 - The Evolution of Internal Triggers, Evolution has made us perpetually perturbed and hardwired for things like hedonic adaptation, rumination, and boredom to keep us searching for more. We are not designed by evolution to be satisfied, but to strive, search, want, and crave, which helped our species progress. The idea is to channel these uncomfortable sensations towards traction rather than distraction. 00:29:21 - Mindset and Reimagining Temptation, Our brains are wired for mindset issues, and we need to reimagine our temperament to become indistractable. If we have an issue, we need to understand the root cause and channel our mindset towards traction instead of distraction. We can reimagine the task, trigger, or our temperament to master the internal triggers, which is crucial to becoming indistractable. 00:32:00 - The Nuances of Technological Distraction, Our relationship with technology and other distractions is a nuanced discussion. Everything has unintended benefits and harms, and it is crucial to take a deeper look. We need to understand the good stuff that's happened and not just the negatives. If something is not serving us, we should disconnect and use what we want with intent. 00:35:23 - The Story Behind the Moral Panic, Every moral panic throughout the years has had a scapegoat, and this time, it's technological distraction. It's dangerous to believe in scientifically unsupported theories, which leads to learned helplessness. The evidence is scant, and the story is much more nuanced. 00:41:33 - Why We Need to Become Indistractable, Nir Eyal talks about how constant interruptions from Facebook and the news distract us and how hacking back our phones and offices can help us become indistractable. 00:42:14 - How Distractions Come from Colleagues, Eyal discusses how distractions from colleagues in open-office plans can impede work progress and how a simple explicit message can help. 00:43:10 - The Role of Pre-Commitments, Eyal explains how pre-commitments can help prevent distraction and promote personal integrity. 00:48:29 - The Antidote to Impulsiveness, Eyal emphasizes that the antidote to impulsiveness is forethought and how we should use our ability to see into the future to plan ahead. 00:50:08 - Conclusion, Melina's top insights from the conversation. What stuck with you while listening to the episode? What are you going to try? Come share it with Melina on social media -- you'll find her as @thebrainybiz everywhere and as Melina Palmer on LinkedIn. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Indistractable, by Nir Eyal Hooked, by Nir Eyal Influence is Your Superpower, by Zoe Chance What Your Customer Wants and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Connect with Nir:  Nirandfar.com Nir on Twitter Nir on LinkedIn Top Recommended Next Episode: Influence is Your Superpower, by Zoe Chance Already Heard That One? Try These:  Availability (ep 15) Habits (ep 256) The Power of Habit (ep 22) How to Set, Achieve & Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 70) Tips To Overcome Imposter Syndrome (ep 13) How to Get (and Stay) Motivated (ep 67) Resolutions and Keeping Commitments (ep 29) Sense of Hearing (ep 27) How To Organize Your Brain with Behavioral Economics (ep 83) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Temptation Bundling (ep 250) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter 3 Ways You Can Limit Everyday Distractions How This Year's Nobel Prize Winning Research in Economics Can Help Your Business

Planning Fallacy Hello, this is Hall T. Martin with the Startup Funding Espresso -- your daily shot of startup funding and investing. The planning fallacy is defined by Wikipedia as the tendency to underestimate task completion times. Projects take twice as much time and cost as planned. First-time founders don't have previous experience and cannot rely upon past projects when making plans. Some founders recall selected cases in the past that went well and plan optimistically. To overcome the planning fallacy, consider the following: Break the project down into its component parts to make the analysis easier. Analyze previous projects to determine how long it will take and use that information to build the timeline for the current project. Have others review the plan to see if there are any tasks that have overly optimistic timelines. Build accountability into the project timelines to make sure that the team stays on track. Perform scenario analysis on what could go wrong and how to manage it. Avoid ego, peer pressure, and other factors that drive optimism into the planning.   Thank you for joining us for the Startup Funding Espresso where we help startups and investors connect for funding. Let's go startup something today. _______________________________________________________ For more episodes from Investor Connect, please visit the site at:   Check out our other podcasts here:   For Investors check out:   For Startups check out:   For eGuides check out:   For upcoming Events, check out    For Feedback please contact info@tencapital.group    Please , share, and leave a review. Music courtesy of .

Are you focused on time? Obsessed with it? Why? Time is the same for all people, yet it seems to take on magical meanings in our world. Let's take some time to explore time.In this episode, I talk about:Our habits of timeConnecting with what your relationship with time is doing in your own lifeDecisions about goals and accomplishmentsResources mentioned:“History of Time Management” (Harold Taylor, May 2019)“Who Made America: Frederick Winslow Taylor” (PBS)“Exploring the "Planning Fallacy": Why People Underestimate Their Task Completion Times” (Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1994)Thanks for listening!Free & awesome mini-class! "3 Ways to Reduce Stress TODAY"Visit the Lisa Schwaller Coaching Website to learn more, sign up for my email list, or get links to follow me around the internet. © 2023 Lisa Schwaller

The Goal Achievement Podcast, hosted by Matt East, is all about helping you find clarity, design a plan, and most importantly achieve your goals.Try productivity coaching free for 7-Days.Motivational quotes: https://www.matt-east.com/quotes Access my book for free here: https://www.matt-east.com/vipSubscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, & STITCHER.

Welcome back to episode 30 of our caffeine chat! The segment of our podcast where we drink caffeine and talk about current events, crazy news stories, facts, studies, fitness, pop-culture, our lives and much much more! As you can see from the title we talk about numerous topics and have a lot of fun with it so tune in!If you enjoy this podcast please follow or subscribe wherever you get your podcasts so you don't miss any uploads! It really helps us and would make our day!Also feel free to leave a rating or review wherever you get your podcasts! It greatly helps and we would love you forever!You can follow us on instagram @thefindingfitnesspodcastYou can email us @thefindingfitnesspodcast@gmail.comThank you!Get 1% Better Today!Intro Music:Music by Leonell Cassio from PixabayHeart Health & Sleep:Vanderbilt University Medical Center. "Study finds chronically disrupted sleep may increase the risk for heart disease." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 15 February 2023. .Gaming for skills:University of Surrey. "Online gaming enhances career prospects and develops soft skills, finds new study." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 29 November 2022. .Teens & purpose:Kaylin Ratner, Qingyi Li, Gaoxia Zhu, Melody Estevez, Anthony L. Burrow. Daily Adolescent Purposefulness, Daily Subjective Well-Being, and Individual Differences in Autistic Traits. Journal of Happiness Studies, 2023; DOI: 10.1007/s10902-023-00625-7Thanks for listening! Don't forget to follow us on Instagram and subscribe wherever you get your podcasts! Get 1% Better Today!

Happy (almost) New Year! This is the last episode of 2022, coming out on December 30 – and what a year it has been! My second book, What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You came out in October, and I got to do a book signing at the Sam's Club Auditorium which was amazing! I also got to speak at some amazing conferences, including travel to Amsterdam and for multiple groups in Latin America, had students from around the world in the certificate program at Texas A&M, got to work with amazing clients and so much more. I can't wait to see what 2023 has in store. One of the things I am most excited about is speaking at SXSW in Austin in March.  Well, speaking of 2023 being an amazing year, that's what this episode is all about. I've done something a little bit different in this episode by bringing on two guests to do a panel of sorts. One of them you have met before, Ayelet Fishbach, Professor of Behavioral Science and Marketing at the University of Chicago and author of Get It Done, which came out earlier this year. Our other panelist, Cassie Holmes, is a professor at UCLA who wrote the new book Happier Hour, which is so beyond fantastic. She specializes in the science of happiness and talks about time poverty and so many other amazing things. (Don't worry, we have a full interview that is all about Cassie and her work coming out in early 2023.) In today's episode, that topic is having the best, happiest year by understanding the science of motivation, goals, achievement, happiness, mindset, and more. Listen in to find out how you can make 2023 your best year yet!  Show Notes: [00:06] In today's episode, I am excited to welcome Ayelet Fishbach and Cassie Holmes to discuss how you can have the best year ever.  [01:15] Forty-six different guests have joined me on the show this year including those in today's interview. We also started testing out releasing two episodes a week.  [04:51] Today I have brought together two people from different universities studying somewhat different (but arguably related) topics to have a discussion about how their work compliments (or contradicts) one another. Today's topic is having the best happiest year by understanding the science of motivation, goals, achievement, happiness, mindset, our thoughts towards time, and more.   [06:21] Ayelet shares about herself, her background, and what she does. She is a motivational scientist.  [07:47] Cassie shares about herself, her background, and what she does. She is a professor that studies happiness and life satisfaction.  [10:25] We are talking about how to help people have better, more successful years in 2023.  [11:24] Around the time the year ends and the new year begins, people are thinking about what they want to achieve. However, there is a likelihood that you will forget about your resolution.  [13:27] You have a wonderful opportunity to reflect back on the prior year.  [16:08] When we feel like we are constantly rushing or hurrying, we are more reactive in how we invest our time instead of proactive and investing in those things that really matter.  [19:02] Looking back is often a way to reaffirm your commitment.  [21:58] Set goals that you can see yourself doing right now and what will make you feel good right now.  [22:41] A year is not the right time frame for many goals. A year has a very long middle. Often weekly and monthly goals are better.    [24:57] Folks who take a broader perspective of time report greater meaning and satisfaction and are happier in their days.  [26:44] Invest time in ways that are worthwhile. The particular activity you are engaging in and also how you are engaging in that activity are what makes the activity worthwhile.  [28:37] You constantly need to navigate the motivation and priorities of your goals.   [30:42] We often get stuck on the little stuff that doesn't really matter instead of focusing on the most important things that help us to move forward on a bigger goal. A to-do list can be a distraction from our higher-value goals.  [32:56] Melina shares four things that work against us: optimism bias, time discounting, planning fallacy, and bikeshedding.  [34:12] Progress is motivating – progress feels good – which is why we often love our to-do lists.  [36:18] You want to ask why you are doing the thing you are doing. You also want to ask how questions.   [39:29] Those who treated their weekend like a vacation were significantly happier when they returned to work and enjoyed the weekend more. Our weekends are meant to be breaks so we can return feeling refreshed and motivated.  [41:26] We need to be intentional and carve out spaces for true breaks during the week – at least once, ideally more.  [46:20] It is important to create the right balance between our goals and the activities that help us achieve the goals.   [49:31] Restructure your day in a way that makes more sense for the goals that you have for yourself for the week and year.  [51:32] It is often harder to learn when you are working from home and not with other people you can learn from. Connection and friendship have suffered between colleagues working from home during the pandemic.  [54:17] Developing friendships with colleagues can be so hard through Zoom, but figuring out ways to bring people together to foster those relationships is so important.  [57:16] Do our panelists set resolutions? Melina and Cassie say no (listen in on her upcoming episode to find out why). Ayelet sets New Year's resolutions because it is an opportunity to think about what she wants to achieve and where she wants to go.  [58:35] Melina's closing thoughts [59:54] Melina chooses a word annually. It is a theme to guide her and keep her centered throughout the year on what she wants to accomplish.  [61:36] Thank you for supporting The Brainy Business! I appreciate you more than I can ever say!  Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Happier Hour, by Cassie Holmes Get It Done, by Ayelet Fishbach How to Change, by Katy Milkman Power of Regret, by Dan Pink Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood Connect with Ayelet & Cassie:  Ayelet on LinkedIn Cassie on LinkedIn Ayelet on Twitter Top Recommended Next Episode: Get It Done: Surprising Lessons from the Science of Motivation with Ayelet Fishbach (ep 186) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Resolutions and Keeping Commitments (ep 29) How to Set, Achieve & Exceed Brainy Goals (ep 248) Temptation Bundling (ep 136) Motivation and Incentives at Work with Kurt Nelson (ep 187) Secrets of Motivation and Incentives, Tim Houlihan Interview (ep 109) The Brainy Benefits of Gratitude (ep 236) The Power of Regret with Daniel Pink (ep 214) Time Discounting (ep 51) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Good Habits, Bad Habits, with Dr. Wendy Wood (ep 127) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter Get it Done Happier Hour Ayelet Fishbach - University of Chicago Cassie Holmes - UCLA

Today's episode is another refresh from the series I did on “All the Biases” back in 2019. Two weeks ago on episode 242 we had the one on numbers-based bias called “Math is Hard” and this week is all about time. It focuses on the past and the future and how we don't look at them in the same way, and how that can impact our behavior (it isn't always the same and our preferences definitely change when we are looking forward versus backward) and how this changes the way we value things and so much more.  I chose to refresh this episode today because this coming Friday, Dolly Chugh is on the show to talk about her new book, A More Just Future. We talk specifically about how the way we look backward isn't the same as when we look forward, and how that impacts our likelihood to take action. Even when we are furious in the moment, and are adamant we will take action, because the past and future don't impact our behavior the same way we often don't. This can be really problematic when we are looking to right the wrongs of the past and present for a better future.  As you listen today, I encourage you to consider how the past, present, and future are different for you. Think of a time when you were outraged by something in the moment and said (either aloud or in your head) that you were absolutely going to do or say something and never did. Why is that? When you remember that incident do you feel as upset about it? What if you heard it was going to happen tomorrow or a week from now? What might you do to prevent it? Why do the past and future feel different and how can this knowledge change the way you support other humans? Show Notes: [00:39] Today's episode is another refresh from the series I did on “All the Biases” back in 2019. [01:39] Because the past and future don't impact our behavior the same way, it can really be problematic when we are looking at history and helping to right the wrongs of the past and present. [03:48] People want immediate payoffs.  [06:23] Due to impact bias, we overestimate the duration of the intensity of the impact of how we will feel in the future. We are also victims of projection bias.  [08:26] To prove a point now you might be making a choice that negatively impacts your future self.  [10:08] The sunk cost fallacy is where people will keep spending and justify pouring into a bad prior investment even though evidence shows it is bad.  [12:37] As your brain gets overwhelmed your subconscious is more likely to take the reins, meaning you will make more battery and present-focused decisions instead of snowball, future-focused decisions.  [14:05] In the cold state we may know that something is a good idea and commit ourselves that when you are in a hot state you don't have the option to let that hot self take over and make a bad decision about the present.   [16:03] People think that when you are in that cold state you're not going to require, need, or want whatever the things are as much as you actually will when your body chemistry has changed to the hot state.    [16:49] People are impacted more by losses than gains and it takes double the joy felt by a gain to equal the pain that is felt by a loss.   [18:03] You may consciously want to stop dreading something. However, as long as your subconscious is still getting some kind of reward or benefit from the physical act of dreading you would need a lot of extra savoring, positive benefit, and something to enjoy at the moment to combat the dread.  [20:45] We do not really like risks and will avoid them when we can. Due to a zero risk bias, we humans prefer to reduce a small risk down to nothing than we would like to take a bigger reduction in a larger risk.  [22:27] When you think you are safer, you are more likely to take risks in other areas. For example, people drive worse when wearing a seatbelt. [25:01] Because we don't want to change, we may ostrich and avoid the potential negative even at our own personal cost.    [26:13] For one person to succeed it does not mean everyone else has to lose or fail.  [28:52] When you know the rules of the game (all these biases and how they work together) it can be easier than you think to trick your brain into doing more in your own favor and use these biases in your favor so you can make decisions today that you will appreciate tomorrow or help get yourself out of a negative spiral.  [31:52] Melina's closing thoughts [32:37] Time discounting is such a big hurdle for us but knowing about it and how it combines with bikeshedding, planning fallacy, and optimism bias is the first step in tackling this.  Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Fierce Conversations, by Susan Scott A More Just Future, by Dolly Chugh A More Beautiful Question, by Warren Berger How Minds Change, by David McRaney Behavioral Investor, by Daniel Crosby Top Recommended Next Episode: Time Discounting (ep 51) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Focusing Illusion (ep 89) Get Your D.O.S.E. of Brain Chemicals (ep 123) Decision Fatigue (ep 132) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Optimism Bias (ep 34) Loss Aversion (ep 9) Math Is Hard (ep 242) A More Beautiful Question with Warren Berger (ep 200) Endowment Effect (ep 139) Status Quo Bias (ep 142) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  Diversification Bias: Explaining the Discrepancy in Variety Seeking Between Combined and Separated Choices Mixing Virtue and Vice: Combining the Immediacy Effect and the Diversification Heuristic Research on How Self-control Works Could Help You Stick With New Year's Resolutions Free Will in Consumer Behavior: Self-control, Ego Depletion, and Choice A Multilab Preregistered Replication of the Ego-Depletion Effect Hot–Cold Empathy Gaps and Medical Decision Making Exploring the Cold-to-Hot Empathy Gap in Smokers Anomalies: The Endowment Effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias Experimental Tests of the Endowment Effect and the Coase Theorem Does Market Experience Eliminate Market Anomalies? The Case of Exogenous Market Experience

Decisions are everywhere — we are making them all day long. Even if you know you are making a lot of decisions, you probably don't grasp the full weight of them. Think about yesterday, how many decisions can you remember making? How many decisions do you make on an average day? Research shows that people make 35,000 decisions every single day!  Can you believe it? Clearly, the bulk of those are done subconsciously as we couldn't exist if we had to do all of those on a conscious level. So, how do we make better decisions? What happens when we make too many decisions? Is there a point in the day when we have hit our decision number and it's all downhill from there? Or is there an opportunity to recharge those batteries and have a second wind?  When do we reach the point of decision fatigue and what can we do to avoid it? That's what this episode is all about. This refreshed episode originally came out on Christmas day, 2020 (at the end of a year full of decision fatigue). It includes tips for making better decisions around the holidays and is useful all year round. Ready to optimize your decisions? Listen in… Show Notes: [00:39] Today's episode is all about decision fatigue. [03:21] We humans make an incredible number of decisions each day.  [04:48] We all make about 35,000 decisions every single day. Some of those are big choices evaluated by our conscious brain but over 90% are made by your subconscious.  [05:51] As you begin to get fatigued, you rely on your subconscious rules of thumb to make decisions. You'll be more cautious and make decisions that are risk-averse without even noticing the change in your behavior.  [07:48] If you don't bog down your brain with mundane choices you can free it up so it doesn't get fatigued as quickly.  [09:34] Doing something today is the best way to make tomorrow easier.  [11:14] Decision fatigue is similar to overwhelm but they are not the same thing. Your brain can get overwhelmed by more than just decisions.  [14:08] Be thoughtful about the things you will be thoughtful about. There are lots of things that seem important at the moment that simply aren't.  [14:33] Dopamine is a chemical that your brain likes. It forms lots of habits around getting more of it and Dopamine goes hand and hand with anticipation.  [15:16] Just because it feels bad or painful doesn't mean it is wrong or that it isn't in your best interest to continue down the path. It might just be your subconscious rebelling about not getting the Dopamine it is used to. Take that painful moment as a good sign and celebrate it and keep moving forward.   [16:58] It is so important to put extra thought into your customer experience journeys. You want to reduce that friction and make it as easy as possible to do business with you.   [19:04] You are making it easier for someone to make a choice.   [20:47] Look for ways to reduce decisions and make it easier to work with you.   [21:12] Decision fatigue is another reason batching content and tasks is so important. When you set aside some time to plan out content in advance, you condense all those decisions into one. It is a super simple brain hack. [22:17] Another closely related item to batching is delegating. Don't hold onto every little decision and choice on a project. Fight the urge to have everything done perfectly in the way you would do them and free up your brain from making decisions that someone else could do.   [24:04] Take breaks. Take a lunch break, weekend off, breaks throughout the day, and even naps.  [25:59] It isn't selfish or self-indulgent in a bad way. It's actually beneficial to your overall decision-making to take this time for yourself. It helps keep your brain clear, your decisions stronger, and your work better and more meaningful. Taking care of your brain is important.   [27:41] Melina's closing thoughts [27:53] When you can streamline the things you do and reduce the unnecessary decisions in your life by making them habits, it can really help you to do more and better things. [29:45] The more you streamline and plan while you are in a cold state (before the moment of distraction hits) the easier it will be in the long run. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Essentialism, by Greg McKeown Good Habits, Bad Habits, by Wendy Wood Friction, by Roger Dooley The Selling Staircase, by Nikki Rausch Sludge, by Cass Sunstein Top Recommended Next Episode: Habits: 95% Of Decisions Are Habitual - Which Side Is Your Business On? (episode 21) Already Heard That One? Try These:  The Overwhelmed Brain & Its Impact on Decision Making (ep 32) Defaults: The "D" in NUDGES (episode 38) Good Habits, Bad Habits: An Interview with Wendy Wood (ep 127) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Time Discounting (ep 51) Get Your D.O.S.E. of Brain Chemicals (ep 123) Friction - What It Is And How To Reduce It, with Roger Dooley (ep 72) How to Make it Easy to Do Business With You With Nikki Rausch (ep 96) Sludge: What It Is and How to Reduce It (ep 179) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) How to Set, Achieve & Exceed Brainy Goals (episode 70) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  How Many Daily Decisions Do We Make? Decision Fatigue: What it is and how it's killing your focus, motivation, and willpower How Willpower Works: How to Avoid Bad Decisions When Thinking is Hard: Managing Decision Fatigue You're facing a lot of choices amid the pandemic. Cut yourself slack: It's called decision fatigue. What is Decision Fatigue? The Science of Decision Fatigue How to Identify When You're Experiencing Decision Fatigue

Today is all about the aversion that humans have to uncertainty and ambiguity, our fear of the unknown, and how it can cause us to choose something we are familiar with even though it may not be in our best interest. While this can often align with risk aversion, they are not the same thing, and while they do often correlate, they don't have to.  More on that, and of course, loss aversion and inequity aversion – all the aversions – on the show today, but because this is a concept I'm guessing you'll “get” pretty easily, there is less on the research studies (they are linked in the notes). That leaves the bulk of the episode to focus on how this applies to you in two aspects of business: internal communication and customer experience. Ready? Let's get started. Show Notes: [00:43] Today is about the aversion that humans have to uncertainty and ambiguity, our fear of the unknown, and how it can cause us to choose something we are familiar with even though it may not be in our best interest. [02:38] The most important thing to know is that we don't like the unknown. We don't like uncertainty in our choices and will prefer known risks over unknown risks. And also, because our brains are lazy and rely on rules of thumb, we often will avoid making complex (and not so complex) calculations. [03:39] Consider the stock market. This can have unknown risks and so people can feel hesitant to put their money there even when the probabilities and rates of return are relatively known over time. [05:30] As with everything, when you present information, how you talk about it matters more than what you are saying. Frame the information you present to highlight what IS known to make it easier for someone to see the positive. (Note: don't gloss over important risks or problems. Use good judgment.) [07:47] When you are presenting a change at work, there are so so so many variables at play, and if you leave a lot of uncertainty and ambiguity – say you share too early or in an incomplete way – there is a good chance people will rebel against that unknown future state. [09:17] A real problem that happens a lot (and is unfathomably detrimental to change initiatives at work), is when someone is given ambiguous information and they feel the need to get their own brain relief by reducing their own mental burden (and wanting someone to help fill that void) in a way that they will find any possible way to justify telling someone (or in some cases, many someones) to cover up that uncertainty. [11:26] As George Lowenstein proposed, “Curiosity is like an itch on the brain and we need anything we can find to scratch that itch.” When there is information to be found, we can fill the gap with learning. When there isn't like in these scenarios, it can be gossip, fear, and doomsday-style planning for the worst, which will cause people to rebel against the potential future before it even has a chance to bloom. [12:55] Everyone on your team needs to be trained on how to share the information and when, and make sure the message is properly framed with regard to all the ambiguous pieces that could cause people to revert to the known instead of the unknown. [14:19] Melina shares some questions you can ask yourself to help determine when it is the right time to share information. [15:38] Just forcing yourself to take a step back and a calming breath as you consider what is really happening can be so helpful. You may want to get out and take a walk or sleep on it or whatever else you do to gain perspective. [18:35] Sharing too much information can cause overwhelm as well, which is stressful and creates its own avoidance, so it is about sharing the right information in the right way at the right time to the right people. Remember that “fair” isn't always equal, and different people need to hear different information at different times. [19:50] The early days of Covid are such a perfect case study for what happens when we feel uncertainty and a lack of control. When people feel a lack of control and like they can't do anything to protect themselves or their families, they may strive to find control in other areas – like hoarding toilet paper. It feels like you are doing something, and can reduce some of that stress. [21:59] Time moves differently on the two sides of a decision in ambiguous times. This presents a big communication problem and disconnect that teams need to pay attention to if they want to be effective. [22:51] The “no update update” can be really helpful for companies. I know you want to wait until everything is perfect to share, but that rumor mill is going to be piling up in a way that is working against you and you owe it to your employees to help relieve some of that stress. [25:30] “No update updates” can be really helpful to diffuse some pressure when there is a lot going on and things are scary on the other side of the decision, but you can't do too many “no update updates” in a row without it starting to be a new problem… [28:06] Let's look at the customer experience side. We like to think people want a lot of choices and to be treated as individuals with very unique experiences. While that can be true, there is also a real issue with the ambiguity side of things if we allow ourselves to rest on the easy answer of “it's custom.” [29:56] When people feel uncertain, they are more likely to look to what others like them do in this situation, so testimonials, social proof, and case studies are all your friends in fighting ambiguity aversion. You don't want or need to share all the nuts and bolts, but at least let them know that there is a process. [32:02] You owe it to your clients and customers to take the time to make this as easy and streamlined as possible – and the benefit is it will make it easier for people to choose you and do business with you. [32:29] Melina's closing thoughts [35:02] Adapting your lenses and looking from multiple angles and depths is really important to make that possible, which is why an episode like this is so valuable. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer The Paradox of Choice, by Barry Schwartz Sludge, by Cass Sunstein Nudge, by Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein Friction, by Roger Dooley Top Recommended Next Episode: Inequity Aversion: That's Not Fair! (episode 224) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Availability Bias (ep 15) Familiarity Bias (ep 149) Status Quo Bias (ep 142) Loss Aversion (ep 9) Framing (ep 16) Bikeshedding (ep 99) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Paradox of Choice: Why More is Less (ep 171) Sludge: What It Is and How to Reduce It (ep 179) NUDGES & Choice Architecture (ep 35) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  RISK, AMBIGUITY, AND THE SAVAGE AXIOMS The Itch of Curiosity Ambiguity (uncertainty) aversion Treatment decisions under ambiguity

Today's episode is one that originally aired on June 14, 2019, as part of an 8-part series I called “All the Biases” which took hundreds of biases and sorted them into different categories. Because our brains are complex interconnected webs, this could have been done in many ways and the biases mentioned could belong in multiple areas. I selected groupings based on what I thought would make the most sense to this audience and applying the information about our biased brains into business.  This episode goes through a lot of concepts at a very high level. Unlike the foundations episodes of the podcast, which sometimes have a full hour dedicated to a full concept, many of these will get a sentence or only a few points. This episode is more about bringing your attention to the concepts, what is out there, and to scratch the surface of the complexity of our brains. I chose this episode as the refresh for this week because it mentions ambiguity and uncertainty aversion, which is the topic for this coming Friday's brand new foundations episode, so it felt like a nice way to set the stage for that. Ready to dig in on all the biases? Let's go… Show Notes: [00:39] Today's episode is one that originally aired on June 14, 2019, as part of an 8-part series I did called “All the Biases” which sorted hundreds of biases into different categories. [03:14] Our brains are lazy and they like to take the path of least resistance to get to what they believe to be a good enough answer as quickly as possible.   [04:51] Because we are particularly lazy with math, we rely on the source of whatever is thrown our way. The brain would rather risk being wrong than take the time to do the numbers in everyday interactions.  [07:17] It is important to know what people care about when you set up your messaging.  [08:25] Due to “the less is better effect”, our preference changes when we evaluate things alone versus comparing them against others.  [10:23] Due to the money illusion we tend to concentrate on the nominal or face value of our money instead of thinking of it in terms of how much it can get for us.  We are more likely to spend money in smaller denominations.   [13:09] Due to the IKEA effect people will value things more that they made themselves or partially assembled than things they did not. The endowment effect is where we value things we own more than things we do not.  [15:45] Playing to win is not the same as playing not to lose (game theory).  [15:58] We have all sorts of bad habits when it comes to placing a value on time.  [18:20] If you have something people will be excited about you can make the wait a little more enjoyable to increase the experience. With a mundane task, reducing the wait as much as possible is key (or, often even better as discussed with Dilip Soman in episode 241, is to look at the opportunity within the wait).  [20:44] “Hot hands” are not real (hot hands fallacy) but our brains like to think this is true due to the clustering illusion. Our brains like to look for patterns. [22:27] People are more likely to prefer the things they know to things that are unknown. We are much more likely to choose an option that we know the odds for even if they are terrible because we are so afraid of the unknown (ambiguity / uncertainty aversion). [24:36] Consider the known and know that the unknown doesn't negate everything else when making a decision.  [25:59] When we want something today, we value it differently than tomorrow (time discounting). When we look at tomorrow or things we don't know about we expect the worst even when there is nothing to make us feel that way other than our own natures. [26:55] Most of us don't properly understand how averages impact our lives every day and this can impact the decisions we make in business.  [27:15] Melina shares a story from Thinking Fast and Slow about regressive bias. [29:47] The instructor has attached a causal interpretation to the inevitable fluctuations of a random process.  [32:00] Everything we know to be true is not necessarily true. It is easy to find the right answer to the wrong question.  [33:25] The lesson is to know that our brains like to tell us stories. They write their own rules and details that serve what the subconscious thinks is best. Taking a little extra time and being a little more open can change your view and your success rate.  [34:00] Melina's closing thoughts [35:02] Adapting your lenses and looking from multiple angles and depths is really important to make that possible, which is why an episode like this is so valuable. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and Support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: What Your Employees Need and Can't Tell You, by Melina Palmer Behavioral Science in the Wild, by Dilip Soman & Nina Mazar Thinking Fast and Slow, by Daniel Kahneman Nudge, by Richard Thaler & Cass Sunstein Freakonomics, by Steven Levitt & Stephen Dubner Top Recommended Next Episode: Behavioral Science in the Wild with Dilip Soman (episode 241) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Overview of Personal Biases (ep 45) Biases Toward Others – Including Groups (ep 46) An Overview of Memory Biases (ep 48) Present Versus Future Biases (ep 49) Selective Attention Biases (ep 50) Biases Toward Novelty and Stories (ep 54) Anchoring & Adjustment  (ep 11) Loss Aversion (ep 9) IKEA Effect (ep 112) Time Discounting (ep 51) Booms, Bubbles, and Busts (ep 30) Mental Accounting (ep 56) Endowment Effect (ep 139) Negativity Bias (ep 223) The Cobra Effect (ep 220) Game Theory (ep 228) Duration Neglect and the Peak End Rule (ep 97) Planning Fallacy (ep 114) Status Quo Bias (ep 142) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  Less Is Better: When Low-value Options Are Valued More Highly than High-value Options The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence Treatment Decisions Under Ambiguity Ambiguity and Nonparticipation: The Role of Regulation Risk, Ambiguity, and the Savage Axioms Statistics How To How to Feel Like You Have All the Time in the World (even If You Don't)

In the one hundred and thirteenth episode we explore the Planning Fallacy, starting with Trump underestimating how long it takes to build a wall and count votes.In Mark's British Politics Corner we look at the planning (or lack thereof) for Brexit.In the Fallacy in the Wild section, we check out examples from Only Fools and Horses, Glory, The Great British Bake Off, and Hofstadter's Law.Jim and Mark go head to head in Fake News, the game in which Mark has to guess which one of three Trump quotes Jim made upThen we talk about red wave which turned out to be a small ketchup stain.And finally, we round up some of the other crazy Trump stories from the past week.The full show notes for this episode can be found at https://fallacioustrump.com/ft113 You can contact the guys at pod@fallacioustrump.com, on Twitter @FallaciousTrump, or facebook at facebook.com/groups/fallacioustrumpSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/fallacious-trump/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

In today's conversation, I am joined by Annie Duke, a former professional poker player (widely known as one of the best female players in the world) who also has an impressive and fascinating background in psychology, which she will talk about on the show today. I've been wanting to have Annie on for ages, she has two other fantastic books called Thinking in Bets and How to Decide, and I am so delighted that she wrote this additional book, Quit, which we are talking about today (and really, she talks about all three books in our conversation). I am so honored and delighted that Annie took the time to chat with me for this interview. We had a great conversation and ended up chatting for over 90 minutes (with about 80 of those recorded). Here on the show today, we are cutting that conversation down to fit in under an hour but if you want to hear the full conversation in detail, come on over to the BE Thoughtful Revolution membership group -- it's our free community of behavioral economics enthusiasts from around the world, and you can check out the full video interview and conversation. Annie is a wealth of knowledge and insights, so you will want to glean every extra moment just like I did, I'm sure – be sure to stick around for monkeys and pedestals! Show Notes: [00:40] In today's conversation, I am joined by Annie Duke, a former professional poker player who also has an impressive and fascinating background in psychology. [03:07] Annie shares her background and how she found herself in the world of behavioral science.  [04:41] Her brother was the one who suggested she play poker and she ended up playing poker for 18 years as her profession.  [06:05] After eight years as a poker player she started getting asked to give talks. The first talk she gave was to a group of options traders and she talked about how poker might inform your thinking about cognitive bias. From there she started getting referrals and spending more time speaking than playing poker.  [07:11] In 2012, she retired from poker to spend more time on the business side of things and started consulting and speaking full-time.  [09:13] If you look at anything on Annie's journey from the time she entered graduate school, it is all decision-making under uncertainty.    [11:09] The more ways that you are thinking about problems and the different frames that you have to ponder these issues you end up bringing something different to the table.  [12:54] Premortems can be very effective if you combine them with other good decision-making tools.  [15:14] If you use prospective hindsight instead of just forward planning, research shows you will generate 30% more reasons for failure or success if you didn't do prospective hindsight.  [17:14] Self-serving bias is that when bad things happen to us as individuals we tend to blame them on things that are outside of our control.   [19:49] Other researchers suggest that premortems need to be done in groups to be successful.  [22:42] Thinking in Bets was a book that she had really wanted to write for many years, which is about making decisions under uncertainty.  [25:27] One of the things she really talks about in Thinking in Bets is resulting. Resulting is when we look at other people and assume if they have a bad outcome then they made a bad decision and a good outcome is from luck (whereas when we have a bad outcome it is luck and a good outcome is from our good decision making – this is very similar to fundamental attribution error).   [26:55] She wrote How to Decide as a companion, which had more practical tools for making decisions.  [28:23] Annie shares about writing her new book Quit.   [30:44] Most of the decisions you make you can actually probably make faster. The way to decide if you can go faster is by looking at the consequences of getting the decision wrong.  [33:01] We are really bad at exercising the option to quit when the time comes. The option to quit is very valuable.  [35:02] She shares the many Zoom conversations with influential behavioral scientists she had prior to writing her new book about quitting.   [36:36] Science shows that when we quit, we are usually doing it too late.  [38:45] One of the problems we have is that once we set a goal we are immediately in the losses.  [39:20] Annie shares about the California Bullet Train.  [41:51] After getting the project approved once starting the project they realize they have two big problems… (Why didn't they “see” them before?)  [44:22] Instead of stopping the project, they approved two pieces of track that don't address the gigantic engineering problems. [46:13] Monkeys and pedestals is an incredibly helpful framework for trying to figure out how you approach projects to find out the information you need to find out the fastest so you can figure out if it is something you want to stick to.  [47:26] She shares the monkeys and pedestal's story. You have to start with the monkey (the hard part) of the problem first.  [49:11] When you do but up against hard things you tend to turn to pedestal building rather than to quit (similar to bikeshedding).   [50:28] You should definitely tackle the monkeys first. [51:51] You follow the premortem by looking at the monkeys and pedestals. You figure out what the monkeys are and then you change your plans according to that.  [53:20] Kill criteria are what you could see or find out in the future that would tell you that you ought to quit.  [55:01] There is no point in tackling any low-hanging fruit if you can't train the monkey. Figure out the hard problem first.  [57:34] Winners quit a lot. That is how they win. Winners sample a lot of stuff, settle on a course of action, tackle the monkeys first, and if the world gives them another signal they switch. [58:41] Winners pick the right things to stick to and they abandon everything else.  [60:52] Melina shares her closing thoughts.  [61:08] Thoughtful quitting, stopping doing things that aren't serving you anymore isn't a failure -- that is a win. That is a sign of doing great big amazing things! If you never quit, you can never win because you will be spread too thin. Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! Learn and support The Brainy Business: Check out and get your copies of Melina's Books.  Get the Books Mentioned on (or related to) this Episode: Thinking in Bets, by Annie Duke How to Decide, by Annie Duke Quit, by Annie Duke Superforecasting, by Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock How to Change, by Katy Milkman Power of Regret, by Daniel Pink Connect with Annie:  Annie's Website Annie on Twitter Annie on LinkedIn Top Recommended Next Episode: Game Theory (episode 62) Already Heard That One? Try These:  Loss Aversion (episode 9) Framing (episode 16) The Most Important Step in Applying Behavioral Economics: Understanding the Problem (episode 126) 3 Steps to Better Decision Making, An Interview with Matthew Confer (episode 158) Counterfactual Thinking  (episode 68) How To Change, an interview Dr. Katy Milkman (episode 51) Fundamental Attribution Error (episode 92) Planning Fallacy (episode 114) Precommitment (episode 120) Hindsight Bias (episode 167) Bikeshedding (episode 99) Status Quo Bias (episode 142) Endowment Effect (episode 139) Survivorship Bias (episode 110) Mental Accounting (episode 56) Other Important Links:  Brainy Bites - Melina's LinkedIn Newsletter  A Slight Change of Plans Podcast with Maya Shankar Annie's Newsletter

The planning fallacy is an aspect of decision-making in the construction industry that has significant health risks, financial implications, and poor business performance. Watch this video and learn more! To be successful in the construction industry you need to be able to:

Episode 100!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! of our book read/podcast covering major topics in various fields of psychology and we are taking a break to pull back the curtain on the process and what we have learned in 100 episodes. We had bigger plans, but life happens. More religion, guests, and other things in the works as we push forward!!! 12 Rules for Screaming into the Void: An Antidote to Podcasting 1. Plan for Planning Fallacy (editing) 2. But Don't forget to Plan (guests/time zones/planning ahead 3. Time is a construct; record to your heart's content (Zimbardo/Milgram) 4. Research your guests (big names) 5. Create a Podcast Guest Doc: 1-2 Pages, stay still, be comfortable. Try to avoid guests who might hit a bong or do dishes mid recording 6. Don't watch your numbers 7. Do it for you 8. Routine is not bad (recurring Qs/Bias of the Week) 9. See old friends and make new ones 10. Clean your room. 11. Don't Micromanage your Guest; Unless they need you to 12. Fake it till you make it. Some great Episodes: Memes Matter: https://anchor.fm/psychosocialdistancing/episodes/Episode-46-Memes-Matter-Libido--the-Internet--and-Freud-e12rrg2 Milgram and Zimbardo: https://anchor.fm/psychosocialdistancing/episodes/Episode-9-Milgram-and-Zimbardo-ejhb1h Conspiracy Theories w/ Sinan Alper: https://anchor.fm/psychosocialdistancing/episodes/Episode-75-Corruption--Precarity--and-Schrdingers-Diana-w-Dr--Sinan-Alper-e1c7ima The Ig Nobel Prize w/Marc Abrahams: https://anchor.fm/psychosocialdistancing/episodes/Episode-79-Making-You-Laugh--Then-Making-You-Think-w-Marc-Abrahams-e1dvsgn PSD Website: https://psychosocialdistancingpodcast.com/ Thomas' Webpage: https://sexography.org/ Thomas' Twitter: https://twitter.com/TBrooks_SexPsy Daniel's Twitter: https://twitter.com/ScienceInChaos Return of the Bias of the Week: Episode 54 Shout out! Planning Fallacy

Today I am very excited to introduce you to Dr. Chuck Howard, an Assistant Professor of Marketing in the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University. In his research, Chuck asks questions like, “Why do consumers so often underpredict their future expenses?” and “Why do people who work in the gig economy over-predict their future income?” He then designs simple solutions for these problems that help people improve their financial well-being. Chuck's research has earned awards from the Society for Consumer Psychology, the Society for Judgment and Decision Making, and the Behavioral Insights Group at Harvard University. Chuck earned his Ph.D. in Marketing and Behavioral Science from the University of British Columbia, and his BA in Economics and Finance from Ryerson University. I met Chuck on a recent trip to College Station and we have had a few conversations since then. Upon hearing about some of his recent research I thought it would be something that you would find interesting (I sure did!) and while it is more on personal financial decision-making, we definitely talk about this from a business aspect, and the insights are relevant to everyone -- especially all the people in the financial industry who I know listen to the show. Show Notes: [00:41] Today I am very excited to introduce you to Dr. Chuck Howard, an Assistant Professor of Marketing in the Mays Business School at Texas A&M University. [03:36] Chuck and Melina didn't meet in the same way as most guests of the show.  [04:04] Chuck shares about himself, his background (including a “gap decade”), and how he found himself in this space. [06:30] He was able to combine his passion and knowledge of psychology and economics to land on studying consumer financial decision-making. [07:38] Making ridiculously optimistic budgets or underpredicting your future expenses can help a lot of people spend less money. They often spend more than they budget (but still spend less than they used to) as long as they track their spending.  [10:12] Melina and Chuck talk about some weird common sayings and how they don't always translate around the world. [10:51] There are a number of situations in which you need to have an accurate view of how much you are going to spend in the future.  [13:14] He was motivated to understand why people underpredict expenses and how we can improve their predictions and accuracy. He wanted to help people make better financial decisions to improve their financial well-being.  [14:25] People's predictions of expenses are deeply grounded in their past experiences. The problem is they are only thinking of the very typical things they have endured.  [16:18] In their research, they never found that the tendency to underpredict expenses or over-predict income is tied to being an optimist. It is simply about what comes to mind most easily when you are making the prediction.  [18:23] Chuck shares about a study they did where they asked people over several weeks to tell how much they spent the week prior, how typical their spending was that week, and how much they think they will spend the following week.  [19:25] Atypical expenses are common in the sense that they happen a lot of the time, but then they are uncommon because it is not the same thing repeated over time so people don't think they will happen again.  [22:20] If the person you are thinking of is similar to you then it could be helpful to think of their spending. It could help you gain perspective on your spending.  [24:59] To make more accurate expense predictions they prompt people to consider a handful of reasons why their expenses will be different than usual. This helps them think of those atypical expenses and increases prediction accuracy.  [26:23] So far, they have people type out the reason that their budget could be atypical. Writing it down may help because it takes a load off your working memory. [29:00] They were motivated to do budgeting research because there was a debate about whether or not budgets actually work.  [30:08] Even though peoples' budgets are wildly optimistic and they never end up spending as little as they have budgeted, they still end up spending substantially less than they used to.  [32:23] You have to be tracking your spending against your budget. Once a week is ideal. [34:58] At the end of the day it is typically about understanding why. [36:53] Be very conscious of what information you are giving to people and when.  [38:55] Even if you haven't hit your budget (because most people don't), you are still spending less than you used to.  [41:40] They found that budgets are an effective way to decrease spending across a number of different personality traits.  [42:11] Tracking and monitoring your behavior against a goal can be very powerful. [45:21] Melina shares her closing thoughts. [47:40] If you enjoy the experience I've provided here for you, will you share about it? That could mean leaving a rating/review or sharing the episode with a friend (or 10!) Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! More from The Brainy Business:

In today's episode, we are talking about one of my all-time favorite concepts, the Dunning-Kruger effect.  In its simplest form, the Dunning-Kruger effect essentially says that people who are unskilled will tend to overestimate their abilities and those who are very skilled experts will underestimate theirs. Someone who undersells their skills could be more qualified than that person who seems very confident. In this episode I explain what the Dunning-Kruger effect is, how understanding it can help you be more effective, how to leverage it in business, and some top tips for navigating this natural tendency of the brain. Show Notes: [00:41] In today's episode, we are talking about one of my all-time favorite concepts: the Dunning-Kruger effect. [03:48] To put the Dunning-Kruger effect into its simplest form, it would say essentially that people who are unskilled will tend to overestimate their abilities and those who are very skilled experts will underestimate theirs. [04:34] Think about a kid who graduates from high school and believes they know everything. [05:23] When someone graduates from high school, they are at a point that has come to be known as the “Peak of Mount Stupid.” At the peak of mount stupid, someone has lots of confidence, but it isn't built on much competence. They have no idea how much they don't know so they are blissfully unaware of their precarious position and how close they are to falling right off the cliff. When this kid gets to college and realizes they don't know nearly as much as they thought they did, they fall into the “Valley of Despair.” [07:21] This is an opportunity to look at the things you don't yet know and begin to research them. This gradual climb is called the “Slope of Enlightenment.” You slowly gain confidence as you grow your competence…though you might never get back up to the level of confidence you had way back at the peak of mount stupid. [08:14] If you take a moment now to reflect upon your own life, I am guessing you could pretty easily come up with at least half a dozen examples where the Dunning-Kruger effect reared its ugly overconfident head. [09:43] While you are an expert in one thing, you are way overconfident in something else, where you don't have any idea of the ocean of stuff you don't know. [11:29] How the effort heuristic relates.  [12:43] I can live in blissful unawareness of my inadequacies forever and never have it be an issue until I try the thing enough to realize that I should have been a little less confident. [13:56] Have some awareness and don't assume you know better than everyone else. [14:54] There is a flip to this as well. (It isn't all about mount stupid). Remember, there is a point where you become an expert and then grossly underestimate your own abilities. [16:11] You can't do this for everything, but on the things that matter it is worth doing a little Dunning-Kruger evaluation every so often to discover if you are underestimating or overestimating your confidence and competence at this point. [17:11] Look at your own moments where you have high confidence and low competence (or high competence with not enough confidence) to determine if you are showing up in the best way possible. Also, look at others to determine where they are on that Dunning-Kruger scale. [18:37] Another place where the Dunning-Kruger effect is really critical to keep in mind is when you look at coaching or giving advice to members of your team. [20:10] Giving them too many things to change while they are feeling the stress in the “valley” is going to make the problem worse, so you need to be selective on what advice to give them. [21:23] Know that when people have low competence in something, they are likely to be overconfident in their own abilities. Those who are very competent have a tendency to underestimate their own skill or ability. [22:02] There is an interesting point when there is an increase in knowledge where you realize all of what you don't know—that increased competence results in a drastic drop in confidence. [22:46] As you build knowledge, know that you will gradually underestimate your abilities, skills, and all the effort and training that went into what you now know and can do. Just because it is easy for you doesn't mean it isn't of value to someone else. Especially when someone is new, overshare information to help with where you both are on the Dunning-Kruger scale. [23:33] Don't take your spot on the Dunning-Kruger scale as a fixed point. The context is always changing, there are new discoveries and technologies and experts every day. [26:07] If you enjoy the experience I've provided here for you, will you share about it? That could mean leaving a rating/review or sharing the episode with a friend (or 10!) Thanks for listening. Don't forget to subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Android. If you like what you heard, please leave a review on iTunes and share what you liked about the show.  I hope you love everything recommended via The Brainy Business! Everything was independently reviewed and selected by me, Melina Palmer. So you know, as an Amazon Associate I earn from qualifying purchases. That means if you decide to shop from the links on this page (via Amazon or others), The Brainy Business may collect a share of sales or other compensation. Let's connect: Melina@TheBrainyBusiness.com The Brainy Business® on Facebook The Brainy Business on Twitter The Brainy Business on Instagram The Brainy Business on LinkedIn Melina on LinkedIn The Brainy Business on Youtube Join the BE Thoughtful Revolution – our free behavioral economics community, and keep the conversation going! More from The Brainy Business:

SUBSCRIBE to our podcast on the platform of your choice! Spotify: http://spoti.fi/3pNtPVe Apple Podcasts: http://apple.co/3tiIpWW Or subscribe to our YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCZrsXfBw1B4Po9qvGRr4wTime stamps: 0:00 - Intro 0:35 - What is “The ONE Thing”? 2:41 - Why you might feel like this paradigm is WRONG 4:10 - Let's talk about leverage 8:41 - Why people resist leverage 13:27 - What about when you have multiple priorities? 21:40 - The Planning Fallacy 28:28 - Can you have a top priority in every area of your life at once? 32:42 - Our modifications to The ONE Thing Question 34:05 - Outro Check out our FREE masterclass all about How To Plan The Perfect Week In 30 Minutes Flat: https://bit.ly/3eEZ9AQ Check out our website: https://lifehackmethod.com/ How To Win Your Week - Every Week [BLOG]: https://lifehackmethod.com/2021/07/23... How To FINISH What You Start: https://youtu.be/TE-cMqZJ_Vo

In this minisode, Wheels shares her planning fallacy and how she has to respond to the calls of multiple projects at once, including ones she doesn't necessarily want to do but needs to. Music: Joyride by Skandinavianz

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This isThe Methods of Rationality, Part 6: Chapter 6: The Planning Fallacy, published by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Blah blah disclaimer blah blah Rowling blah blah ownership. A/N: The "Aftermath" section of this chapter is part of the story, not omake. You think your day was surreal? Try mine. Some children would have waited until after their first trip to Diagon Alley. "Bag of element 79," Harry said, and withdrew his hand, empty, from the mokeskin pouch. Most children would have at least waited to get their wands first. "Bag of okane," said Harry. The heavy bag of gold popped up into his hand. Harry withdrew the bag, then plunged it again into the mokeskin pouch. He took out his hand, put it back in, and said, "Bag of tokens of economic exchange." That time his hand came out empty. "Give me back the bag that I just put in." Out came the bag of gold once more. Harry James Potter-Evans-Verres had gotten his hands on at least one magical item. Why wait? "Professor McGonagall," Harry said to the bemused witch strolling beside him, "can you give me two words, one word for gold, and one word for something else that isn't money, in a language that I wouldn't know? But don't tell me which is which." "Ahava and zahav," said Professor McGonagall. "That's Hebrew, and the other word means love." "Thank you, Professor. Bag of ahava." Empty. "Bag of zahav." And it popped up into his hand. "Zahav is gold?" Harry questioned, and Professor McGonagall nodded. Harry thought over his collected experimental data. It was only the most crude and preliminary sort of effort, but it was enough to support at least one conclusion: "Aaaaaaarrrgh this doesn't make any sense!" The witch beside him lifted a lofty eyebrow. "Problems, Mr. Potter?" "I just falsified every single hypothesis I had! How can it know that 'bag of 115 Galleons' is okay but not 'bag of 90 plus 25 Galleons'? It can count but it can't add? It can understand nouns, but not some noun phrases that mean the same thing? The person who made this probably didn't speak Japanese and I don't speak any Hebrew, so it's not using their knowledge, and it's not using my knowledge -" Harry waved a hand helplessly. "The rules seem sorta consistent but they don't mean anything! I'm not even going to ask how a pouch ends up with voice recognition and natural language understanding when the best Artificial Intelligence programmers can't get the fastest supercomputers to do it after thirty-five years of hard work," Harry gasped for breath, "but what is going on?" "Magic," said Professor McGonagall. "That's just a word! Even after you tell me that, I can't make any new predictions! It's exactly like saying 'phlogiston' or 'elan vital' or 'emergence' or 'complexity'!" The black-robed witch laughed aloud. "But it is magic, Mr. Potter." Harry slumped over a little. "With respect, Professor McGonagall, I'm not quite sure you understand what I'm trying to do here." "With respect, Mr. Potter, I'm quite sure I don't. Unless - this is just a guess, mind - you're trying to take over the world?" "No! I mean yes - well, no!" "I think I should perhaps be alarmed that you have trouble answering the question." Harry glumly considered the Dartmouth Conference on Artificial Intelligence in 1956. It had been the first conference ever on the topic, the one that had coined the phrase "Artificial Intelligence". They had identified key problems such as making computers understand language, learn, and improve themselves. They had suggested, in perfect seriousness, that significant advances on these problems might be made by ten scientists working together for two months. No. Chin up. You're just starting on the problem of unravelling all the secrets of magic. You don't actually know whether it's going to be too difficult to do in two months. "And you really haven't heard of other wiz...

Welcome to The Nonlinear Library, where we use Text-to-Speech software to convert the best writing from the Rationalist and EA communities into audio. This is Predictably Wrong, Part 9: Planning Fallacy, published by Eliezer Yudkowsky. The Denver International Airport opened 16 months late, at a cost overrun of $2 billion.1 The Eurofighter Typhoon, a joint defense project of several European countries, was delivered 54 months late at a cost of $19 billion instead of $7 billion. The Sydney Opera House may be the most legendary construction overrun of all time, originally estimated to be completed in 1963 for $7 million, and finally completed in 1973 for $102 million.2 Are these isolated disasters brought to our attention by selective availability? Are they symptoms of bureaucracy or government incentive failures? Yes, very probably. But there's also a corresponding cognitive bias, replicated in experiments with individual planners. Buehler et al. asked their students for estimates of when they (the students) thought they would complete their personal academic projects.3 Specifically, the researchers asked for estimated times by which the students thought it was 50%, 75%, and 99% probable their personal projects would be done. Would you care to guess how many students finished on or before their estimated 50%, 75%, and 99% probability levels? 13% of subjects finished their project by the time they had assigned a 50% probability level; 19% finished by the time assigned a 75% probability level; and only 45% (less than half!) finished by the time of their 99% probability level. As Buehler et al. wrote, “The results for the 99% probability level are especially striking: Even when asked to make a highly conservative forecast, a prediction that they felt virtually certain that they would fulfill, students' confidence in their time estimates far exceeded their accomplishments.”4 More generally, this phenomenon is known as the “planning fallacy.” The planning fallacy is that people think they can plan, ha ha. A clue to the underlying problem with the planning algorithm was uncovered by Newby-Clark et al., who found that Asking subjects for their predictions based on realistic “best guess” scenarios; and Asking subjects for their hoped-for “best case” scenarios . . . . . . produced indistinguishable results.5 When people are asked for a “realistic” scenario, they envision everything going exactly as planned, with no unexpected delays or unforeseen catastrophes—the same vision as their “best case.” Reality, it turns out, usually delivers results somewhat worse than the “worst case.” Unlike most cognitive biases, we know a good debiasing heuristic for the planning fallacy. It won't work for messes on the scale of the Denver International Airport, but it'll work for a lot of personal planning, and even some small-scale organizational stuff. Just use an “outside view” instead of an “inside view.” People tend to generate their predictions by thinking about the particular, unique features of the task at hand, and constructing a scenario for how they intend to complete the task—which is just what we usually think of as planning. When you want to get something done, you have to plan out where, when, how; figure out how much time and how much resource is required; visualize the steps from beginning to successful conclusion. All this is the “inside view,” and it doesn't take into account unexpected delays and unforeseen catastrophes. As we saw before, asking people to visualize the “worst case” still isn't enough to counteract their optimism—they don't visualize enough Murphyness. The outside view is when you deliberately avoid thinking about the special, unique features of this project, and just ask how long it took to finish broadly similar projects in the past. This is counterintuitive, since the inside view has so much more detail—there's a temptation to think that a carefully tailored prediction, taking into account all available data, wil...

In this episode, I share how we can get caught in the Planning Fallacy, and my #1 time management hack that has drastically improved how I manage my day.   The I Love Mortgage Brokering Network is now brought to you by Finmo. To learn more, visit: www.finmo.ca/ilmb   If you have any questions you want me to answer, send me an email at scott@ilovemortgagebrokering.com   I Love Mortgage Brokering: www.ilovemortgagebrokering.com   Find out more about the 10 Loans A Month Academy: www.10loansamonth.com   Find out more about ILMB Mortgage Pros: www.get10funded.com   Find out more about the $25 Million Dollar Blueprint: www.get25million.com

Jon Acuff (@jonacuff) returns to the show to discuss his new book Finish: Give Yourself the Gift of Done. "If culture's doing its job, you shouldn't reward middle. You should reward finish." -Jon Acuff The Cheat Sheet: Why are only eight percent of new year's resolutions realized? (Incidentally, that's the same percentage of applicants accepted to Juilliard.) The harm perfectionism causes and what we can do to navigate through it. The Planning Fallacy and how it causes overachievers to fail before even beginning. Strategic Incompetence: why you should deliberately be terrible at some things. Secret Rules: what they are, how they're made, and how these invisible scripts affect our lives (and what we can do about it). And so much more... Full show notes at https://theartofcharm.com/668/ Find out more about the team who makes The Art of Charm podcast here! Four Sigmatic mushroom coffee with lion's mane gives you the boost of coffee with half the caffeine. Try Four Sigmatic's AoC coffee bundle here, and use code CHARM at checkout for free shipping! Are you trying to hire the right person for your business, but the best candidates keep slipping away? Let ZipRecruiter -- the fastest way to hire great people -- help you screen only the best here! As security breaches make headlines with increasing frequency, is your identity protected? Go to LifeLock.com or call 1-800-LIFELOCK and use promo code FORBES for 10% off your LifeLock membership! CastBox introduces an in-audio search capability that offers a brand new way to search for podcasts you may love based on words or topics. Download CastBox for iOS or Android now to try it out for yourself! Need a podcast that will help you 'begin living and thinking smarter not harder?' Check out Dexter Guff is Smarter Than You (And You Can Be Too) -- subscribe now to get your ears on Dexter's mouth! Does your business have an Internet presence? Now save a whopping 50% on new webhosting packages here with HostGator by using coupon code CHARM! Free yourself from typing notes, reports, and documents by going with the transcriptionists we trust here at AoC: TranscriptionOutsourcing.net -- 99% or higher accuracy guaranteed! HELP US SPREAD THE WORD! If you dig the show, please subscribe in iTunes and write us a review! This is what helps us stand out from the crowd and help people find the credible advice they need. Review the show in iTunes! We rely on it! http://www.theartofcharm.com/mobilereview Stay Charming!