Podcast appearances and mentions of Philip E Tetlock

Today, we're sharing a special episode from our friends at the chart-topping a16z Podcast. In this conversation, a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz dive deep into the REAL story behind the creation of Netscape—the web browser co-created by Marc that revolutionized the internet and changed the world. As Ben notes at the top, until today, this story has never been fully told either in its entirety or accurately. The two discuss Marc's early life and how it shaped his journey into technology, the pivotal moments at the University of Illinois that led to the development of Mosaic (a renegade browser that Marc developed as an undergrad), and the fierce competition and legal battles that ensued as Netscape rose to prominence. Ben and Marc also reflect on the lessons learned that still resonate in today's tech landscape (especially with AI). Listen to more episodes of The a16z Podcast here: https://link.chtbl.com/blpusvv- —

"The Ben & Marc Show," featuring a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. In this special episode, Marc and Ben dive deep into the REAL story behind the creation of Netscape—a web browser co-created by Marc that revolutionized the internet and changed the world. As Ben notes at the top, until today, this story has never been fully told either in its entirety or accurately. In this one-on-one conversation, Marc and Ben discuss Marc's early life and how it shaped his journey into technology, the pivotal moments at the University of Illinois that led to the development of Mosaic (a renegade browser that Marc developed as an undergrad), and the fierce competition and legal battles that ensued as Netscape rose to prominence. Ben and Marc also reflect on the broader implications of Netscape's success, the importance of an open internet, and the lessons learned that still resonate in today's tech landscape (especially with AI). That and much more. Enjoy!Watch the FULL Episode on YouTune: https://youtu.be/8aTjA_bGZO4 Resources: Marc on X: https://twitter.com/pmarca Marc's Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/ Ben on X: https://twitter.com/bhorowitz Book mentioned on this episode: - “Expert Political Judgment” by Philip E. Tetlock https://bit.ly/45KzP6M TV Series mentioned on this episode: - “The Mandalorian” (Disney+) https://bit.ly/3W0Zyoq Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16zFind a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16zFind a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16zSubscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/Follow our host: https://twitter.com/stephsmithioPlease note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.

Welcome back to "The Ben & Marc Show," featuring a16z co-founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz.  In this special episode, Marc and Ben dive deep into the REAL story behind the creation of Netscape—a web browser co-created by Marc that revolutionized the internet and changed the world. As Ben notes at the top, until today, this story has never been fully told either in its entirety or accurately.  In this one-on-one conversation, Marc and Ben discuss Marc's early life and how it shaped his journey into technology, the pivotal moments at the University of Illinois that led to the development of Mosaic (a renegade browser that Marc developed as an undergrad), and the fierce competition and legal battles that ensued as Netscape rose to prominence.  Ben and Marc also reflect on the broader implications of Netscape's success, the importance of an open internet, and the lessons learned that still resonate in today's tech landscape (especially with AI). That and much more. Enjoy! Book mentioned on this episode: - “Expert Political Judgment” by Philip E. Tetlock https://bit.ly/45KzP6M  TV Series mentioned on this episode: - “The Mandalorian” (Disney+) https://bit.ly/3W0Zyoq  Watch the FULL Episode on YouTune: https://youtu.be/8aTjA_bGZO4 Resources: Marc on X: https://twitter.com/pmarca Marc's Substack: https://pmarca.substack.com/  Ben on X: https://twitter.com/bhorowitz  Stay Updated: Find us on X: https://twitter.com/a16z Find us on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z  The views expressed here are those of the individual personnel quoted and are not the views of a16z or its affiliates. This content is provided for informational purposes only, and should not be relied upon as legal, business, investment, or tax advice. Furthermore, this content is not directed at nor intended for use by any investors or prospective investors and may not under any circumstances be relied upon when making a decision to invest in any a16z funds. PLEASE SEE MORE HERE: https://a16z.com/disclosures/

Read the full transcript here. How does psychological time differ from clock time? How does a person's perception of time relate to their personal identity? How does a person's view of their past shape how they view their future? To what extent do people differ in the degree to which they feel like a single, continuous person across time? What effects does a person's perception of time have on their assessment of injustices? Why aren't there more adversarial collaborations in academia? Is academia generally politically left-leaning? How does lack of political diversity in academia compare to (e.g.) lack of gender or economic diversity? Are liberal or progressive academics openly willing to discriminate against conservative academics when, for example, the latter have opportunities for career advancement? Is anyone in the US actually calling for legal changes around free speech laws, or are they only discussing how people ought to be socially ostracized or punished for expressing certain viewpoints? And is there a meaningful difference between legal and social punishments for those who make illegal or taboo statements? Are we in the midst of an ideological war right now? And if so, ought we to quash in-group criticism to avoid giving ammunition to our ideological enemies? Academia seems to have hemorrhaged public trust over the last few decades; so what can be done to begin restoring that trust?Anne Wilson is a professor of social psychology at Wilfrid Laurier University. Much of her research focuses on self and identity over time both for individual self and collective identities like nation, race, and gender. Her work illuminates the often-motivated malleability of our reconstructions of the past, forecasts of the future, and subjective perceptions of time itself. Her broad focus on motivated reasoning and cognitive bias has also led to more recent research on intergroup misperception, political polarization, and how speech suppression and censorship can inhibit collective bias correction. Follow her on Twitter / X at @awilson_WLU, email her at awilson@wlu.ca, or learn more about her work at her labe website: annewilsonpsychlab.com.Further reading:"Prosocial motives underlie scientific censorship by scientists: A perspective and research agenda", by Cory J. Clark, Lee Jussim, Komi Frey, Sean T. Stevens, Musa al-Gharbi, Karl Aquino, J. Michael Bailey, Nicole Barbaro, Roy F. Baumeister, April Bleske-Rechek, David Buss, Stephen Ceci, Marco Del Giudice, Peter H. Ditto, Joseph P. Forgas, David C. Geary, Glenn Geher, Sarah Haider, Nathan Honeycutt, Hrishikesh Joshi, Anna I. Krylov, Elizabeth Loftus, Glenn Loury, Louise Lu, Michael Macy, Chris C. Martin, John McWhorter, Geoffrey Miller, Pamela Paresky, Steven Pinker, Wilfred Reilly, Catherine Salmon, Steve Stewart-Williams, Philip E. Tetlock, Wendy M. Williams, Anne E. Wilson, Bo M. Winegard, George Yancey, and William von Hippel"The Future of Memory: Remembering, Imagining, and the Brain", by Daniel L. Schacter, Donna Rose Addis, Demis Hassabis, Victoria C. Martin, R. Nathan Spreng, and Karl K. Szpunar"Autobiographical Memory and Conceptions of Self: Getting Better All the Time", by Michael Ross and Anne E. Wilson"When Slights Beget Slights: Attachment Anxiety, Subjective Time, and Intrusion of the Relational Past in the Present", by Kassandra Cortes and Anne E. Wilson"Crimes of the Past: Defensive Temporal Distancing in the Face of Past In-Group Wrongdoing", by Johanna Peetz, Gregory R. Gunn, and Anne E. Wilson"Exploring Gender Bias in Six Key Domains of Academic Science: An Adversarial Collaboration", by Stephen J. Ceci1, Shulamit Kahn, and Wendy M. Williams"Political Diversity in Social and Personality Psychology", by Yoel Inbar and Joris LammersKindly Inquisitors: The New Attacks on Free Thought, by Jonathan RauchBreaking the Social Media Prism: How to Make Our Platforms Less Polarizing, by Chris Bail Staff Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director Josh Castle — Producer Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer Uri Bram — Factotum WeAmplify — Transcriptionists Miles Kestran — Marketing Music Lee Rosevere Josh Woodward Broke for Free zapsplat.com wowamusic Quiet Music for Tiny Robots Affiliates Clearer Thinking GuidedTrack Mind Ease Positly UpLift [Read more]

Pro Sports Bettors, Alex Vella & Neel Shah, discuss ways in which to improve your handicapping or originating in sports betting, with the help of Dan Gardner and Philip E. Tetlock's book - Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Neel - https://twitter.com/mybettorlife Alex - https://twitter.com/AlexVella_   1 WEEK FREE TRIAL OF TRADEMATE http://tradematesports.com/   TRADEMATE CORE A tool for new and aspiring sports bettors and traders: https://tradematesports.com/core    TRADEMATE PRO A tool for professional sports bettors and traders: https://tradematesports.com/pro   SOCIAL LINKS: Instagram ➠ https://www.instagram.com/tradematesports/ Facebook ➠ https://www.facebook.com/TrademateSports Twitter ➠ https://twitter.com/TrademateSports   BLOG:  Learn more about how you can improve your betting on our blog ➠ http://blog.tradematesports.com

Interview with Jacek Urbanowicz, an architect at COX Architecture and co-founder of Tunarch.org, architecture discovery platform that focuses on helping clients find the right designer through the contents of their work. We talk about his vision for the future of cities, the urban representation of Maslow's pyramid, democratised decision-making, and many more. Jacek Urbanowicz is a Melbourne-based, design technology specialist, registered architect with a decade of professional experience and an entrepreneur. His best features orbit around: building strong relationships with teams, computational design, all-round project delivery and logical problem-solution analysis. Jacek graduated from Poznan University of Technology, Poland and gained initial experience in Barcelona, Beirut and Shanghai. After working on award-winning projects at Bates Smart office, he joined COX Architecture where he develops many significant, large-scale projects. Jacek is also a co-founder of a new architecture discovery platform: Tunarch. The name comes from "Tuning Architecture", as it allows users to publish and explore design works through data-driven lenses and provides practical tools for designers and real estate clients of all scales and building types. Core benefits of using Tunarch are: well organized key project information, understanding the market landscape, searching convenience and accuracy. At tunarch.org you can manage your design portfolio with ease and grow your business opportunities. You can find out more about Jacek online through these links: Jacek Urbanowicz on LinkedIn; Tunarch.org website; Tunarch on LinkedIn; Tunarch on Instagram; Tunarch on Youtube; Cox Architecture website; Superforecastering: The art and science of prediction - book from Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner; Melbourne Connect website at The University of Melbourne; Melbourne Accelerator Velocity Program in which Tunarch participated; Connecting episodes which might interest you: No.020R - Summary of Antifragile (book) by Nassim Nicholas Taleb No.021I - Interview with Bridgette Engler, foresight specialist and futurist No.075I - Interview with Gavin Cotterill about smart cities and digital twins and their usability for testing design solutions digitally first What wast the most interesting part for you? What questions did arise for you? Let me know on Twitter @WTF4Cities or on the wtf4cities.com website where the shownotes are also available. I hope this was an interesting episode for you and thanks for tuning in. Music by Lesfm from Pixabay

We live in a culture that glamorizes grit and derides giving up. But in the world of climate startups, we can't afford to spend time on projects that aren't working. So, how do you know when to quit? Decision Strategist Annie Duke is a retired professional poker player and World Series of Poker bracelet holder. She is also the author of several books, including Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away. On this episode of Reversing Climate Change, Annie joins Ross to explain how to apply decision-making skills from poker and her research in the context of a climate startup. Annie walks us through her three strategies for deciding when to fold, challenging us to set explicit kill criteria and leverage the ‘monkeys and pedestals' mental model to abandon projects that aren't working. Listen in for Annie's insight on prioritizing moonshots that develop useful technology and learn how to persevere when projects are worthwhile—and walk away when they're not. Connect with Nori Purchase Nori Carbon Removals Nori's website Nori on Twitter Join Nori's Discord to hang out with other fans of the podcast and Nori Check out our other podcast, Carbon Removal Newsroom Carbon Removal Memes on Twitter Carbon Removal Memes on Instagram Resources Annie's Website Books by Annie Duke Quit: The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away by Annie Duke How to Decide: Simple Tools for Making Better Choices by Annie Duke Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Ron Conway at SV Angel Poker After Dark Astro Teller at X Project Loon Grit: The Power of Passion and Perseverance by Angela Duckworth --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/reversingclimatechange/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/reversingclimatechange/support

Is it possible to predict the future? What is “data journalism”? Have polls become increasingly unreliable? To answer these questions, Pedro Pinto interviews Nate Silver in this episode of “It's Not That Simple”, a podcast by the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation. A statistician famous for correctly predicting the results of the 2008 US presidential election in 49 of the 50 states of the Union, Nate Silver is the founder of the website FiveThirtyEight.com, which uses “data journalism” to cover areas such as politics, science, health, and sports. Silver started out as a baseball statistical analyst (having written several books on the topic), before turning to politics and polls. In 2012, he published the book The Signal and The Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, and has written for publications such as The New York Times, ESPN, Sports Illustrated and Slate. In 2009, he was named one of Time Magazine's 100 Most Influential People. In this episode, Silver explains how his election prediction model works, as well as what probabilistic thinking is and the difference between correctly predicting who wins an election and reliably calibrating the probability that a given candidate will win. Silver also discusses the value and usefulness of polls, as well as their limitations. Finally, Silver analyses the complexity of the American electoral system and the obstacles that this (and the relatively low frequency in which elections take place) poses to the accuracy of electoral forecasts, in a conversation well worth listening to. More on this topic • The Signal and The Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, Nate Silver, 2012 • New York Magazine article on Nate Silver, 2008 • Newsweek article on Nate Silver, 2008 • Article about Nate Silver in The Atlantic, 2020 • Conference “How Far Can We See the Future?”, with Philip E. Tetlock at the Francisco Manuel dos Santos Foundation Other references in Portuguese • Essay of the Foundation “Sondagens, Eleições e Opinião Pública”, by Pedro Magalhães

Arjen Vrielink is the Director & co-founder of Satelligence, dedicated to stopping deforestation by leveraging satellite imagery. They work directly with commodity companies who sell things like cacao or coffee to understand the causes of deforestation and how alternatives can be found.About Arjen:TwitterLinkedInSatelligence---Episode Sponsors:Radiant Earth Foundation: Apply for the 2022 Radiant MLHub Impact Award for agriculture-related applications for Africa - with a $5,000 cash prize.Element84Dan Pilone's appearance on the podcast---Shownotes:Zero to One by Peter ThielKate Raworth's Doughnut EconomicsPlanet Acquiring VandersatRange by David EpsteinSteve BallmerUp and Down the Ladder of Abstraction by Bret Victorxkcd: Adjective FoodsSuperforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan GardnerBook recommendations:Man's Fate (La Condition Humaine) by André MalrauxThe Stranger (L'Etranger) by Albert CamusThe Plague (La Peste) by Albert CamusThe Mandarins by Simone de BeauvoirTimestamps:00:00 - Introduction02:55 - Conversation Begins07:56 - Arjen quoting me to describe work environment13:02 - The origin story of Satelligence17:45 - What Satelligence does19:05 - Remote Sensing to solve deforestation: Solution looking for a Problem?26:48 - Data comes in to convince bosses34:38 - Financial incentives & shareholders40:27 - How Satelligence makes money & long term vision45:02 - Why Satelligence decided to raise a first round after a few years51:25 - Downsides to raising55:14 - What happens to the mission after an exit?59:30 - Creating a work culture1:03:43 - Lunch is more important for your culture than your Strategy day1:13:17 - Hiring1:17:47 - Why Arjen hired me as an intern1:29:48 - Open Source in Geospatial1:42:28 - Importance of technical knowledge in leadership roles1:44:36 - Layers of Abstraction1:51:16 - Committing to one specific thing1:57:18 - Why maps aren't (always) the best way to communicate insights2:06:43 - Geospatial is incredibly niche2:12:57 - Book recommendations2:21:15 - Asking for adviceFeel free to reach out!My TwitterFor news about the podcastWebsite

Can we predict the future more accurately?It's a question we humans have grappled with since the dawn of civilization — one that has massive implications for how we run our organizations, how we make policy decisions, and how we live our everyday lives.It's also the question that Philip Tetlock, a psychologist at the University of Pennsylvania and a co-author of “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” has dedicated his career to answering. In 2011, he recruited and trained a team of ordinary citizens to compete in a forecasting tournament sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community. Participants were asked to place numerical probabilities from 0 to 100 percent on questions like “Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile in the next year” and “Is Greece going to leave the eurozone in the next six months?” Tetlock's group of amateur forecasters would go head-to-head against teams of academics as well as career intelligence analysts, including those from the C.I.A., who had access to classified information that Tetlock's team didn't have.The results were shocking, even to Tetlock. His team won the competition by such a large margin that the government agency funding the competition decided to kick everyone else out, and just study Tetlock's forecasters — the best of whom were dubbed “superforecasters” — to see what intelligence experts might learn from them.So this conversation is about why some people, like Tetlock's “superforecasters,” are so much better at predicting the future than everyone else — and about the intellectual virtues, habits of mind, and ways of thinking that the rest of us can learn to become better forecasters ourselves. It also explores Tetlock's famous finding that the average expert is roughly as accurate as “a dart-throwing chimpanzee” at predicting future events, the inverse correlation between a person's fame and their ability to make accurate predictions, how superforecasters approach real-life questions like whether robots will replace white-collar workers, why government bureaucracies are often resistant to adopt the tools of superforecasting and more.Mentioned:Expert Political Judgment by Philip E. Tetlock“What do forecasting rationales reveal about thinking patterns of top geopolitical forecasters?” by Christopher W. Karvetski et al.Book recommendations:Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel KahnemanEnlightenment Now by Steven PinkerPerception and Misperception in International Politics by Robert JervisThis episode is guest-hosted by Julia Galef, a co-founder of the Center for Applied Rationality, host of the “Rationally Speaking” podcast and author of “The Scout Mindset: Why Some People See Things Clearly and Others Don't.” You can follow her on Twitter @JuliaGalef. (Learn more about the other guest hosts during Ezra's parental leave here.)Thoughts? Guest suggestions? Email us at ezrakleinshow@nytimes.com.You can find transcripts (posted midday) and more episodes of "The Ezra Klein Show" at nytimes.com/ezra-klein-podcast, and you can find Ezra on Twitter @ezraklein. Book recommendations from all our guests are listed at https://www.nytimes.com/article/ezra-klein-show-book-recs.“The Ezra Klein Show” is produced by Annie Galvin, Jeff Geld and Rogé Karma; fact-checking by Michelle Harris; original music by Isaac Jones; mixing by Jeff Geld; audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Alison Bruzek.

I’ve often spoken on the Legion Strength & Conditioning podcast about the desire for “simple solutions to complex problems.” I figured I’d reframe and refine that discussion for a solocast based upon the cynefin decision-making framework, Julia Galef’s great new book “The Scout Mindset,” and some marketing intuition from years of running a small business. Over years of creating content for a fitness audience, I’ve learned that the things that resonate with people are often not the things that are actually correct. Understanding the difference between a “complicated” environment and a “complex” environment has helped me clarify what’s going on here. People tend to listen to podcasts, read articles, and buy coaching products to solve problems that they know they have. Most people intuitively frame things as “complicated” problems — meaning that there is established expertise out in the world that, messy as it may be, can come up with a flow chart or system that will guarantee an outcome if followed correctly. Instead, most real-life things are complex — meaning that outcomes are only loosely coupled with the “correctness” of inputs, nonlinearities, emergent phenomena, and threshold effects dominate, and it’s really hard to extract signal from noise. So, if I were being more parsimonious in my statement, I could rephrase it as “people want complicated solutions to complex problems.” Here’s why the best way to market yourself as a coach is not the best way to actually coach. If you're enjoying the show, the best way to support it is by sharing with your friends. If you don't have any friends, why not a leave a review? It makes a difference in terms of other people finding the show. You can also subscribe to receive my e-mail newsletter at www.toddnief.com. Most of my writing never makes it to the blog, so get on that list. Show Notes: [00:13] Introduction to the cynefin framework — Obvious | Complicated | Complex | Chaotic [05:14] Moving from the realm of the complicated to the complex in real life environments like training, coaching, and business [11:40] The Scout Mindset — and the weakness of epistemic humility when marketing to people thinking in a “complicated” not a “complex” way [16:10] The prestige trap — and the desire to copy what successful people do under the misconception that there is a linear path to accomplish what they’ve accomplished (like people complaining that Mat Fraser’s new programming doesn’t show exactly what he did leading into his final CrossFit Games championship) Links and Resources Mentioned: Cynefin framework “A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making” from the Harvard Business Review Emergence Threshold Effects Insulin resistance Julia Galef “The Scout Mindset” by Julia Galef Philip E. Tetlock ‎Hybrid Unlimited: Ep.83 Putting a strength coach in your pocket ft Mat Fraser and Ian Kaplan Dr. Ian Kaplan Hayden Bowe

A közelmúltban jelent meg a Napvilág Kiadónál Philip E. Tetlock amerikai pszichológus, politológus Szakértő politikai előrejelzés. Mire jó? Hogyan mérhetjük? című kötete, amelyről Felcsuti Péterrel, a fordítóval és Róna Dániel politológussal beszélgetett Klopfer Judit, a kötet szerkesztője, a Napvilág Kiadó főszerkesztője. A politikai előrejelzés napjainkban reménytelenül szubjektív műfaj. Teret nyert a közéletben egyfajta antiintellektualizmus: a (szak)tudás önmagában értéktelen; csak a velünk azonos nézeteket vallók véleményét vagyunk hajlandóak elfogadni, csak a saját „törzsünkkel” értünk egyet. De miért is kéne a politikai szakértőket felmenteni a pontosság és egyértelműség sztenderdjei alól, amelyeket minden más szakmától és tudományterülettől megkövetelünk? Tetlock a könyvében amellett érvel, hogy az előrejelző versenyek lehetőséget adnak arra, hogy előre mozdítsuk a vitán alapuló demokrácia ügyét – a versenyek révén erősödnek az objektív mérés szempontjai, így javul a közbeszéd minősége és csökken a polarizáció. Tetlock Isaiah Berlin nyomán a szakértőket két csoportra osztja: sündisznókra és rókákra; a gondolkodási stílus egyik végpontja a sündisznó, másik végpontja a róka kognitív stílus, e két kategória segítségével értékeli ki több tízévnyi kutatási anyagát, és dolgozza ki mérési módszerét a lehető legnagyobb objektivitásra törekedve. A beszélgetés az alábbi kérdéseket járja körül: - Miben más a politikai előrejelzés és a politikai szakértelem más tudományterületekhez képest, milyen a befogadói környezetük? - Összefügg-e az antiintellektualizmus mint közeg és a szakértők, illetve a médiafogyasztók mentális merevsége? Miért korrigálja álláspontját nehezen egy szakértő? - Van-e esély rá, hogy javuljon a helyzet nálunk a pontosság és a mentális merevség terén? Tetlock az előrejelző versenyeket jelöli meg eszközként. Vajon sikeres lenne-e egy ilyen verseny itthon? - Ki a jó szakértő? Számít-e, mit gondol, vagy csak az, ahogy gondolkodik? - Melyek a sündisznó és róka kognitív stílus jellegzetességei? Kik a jobb előrejelzők? A médiafigyelem nagy részét sündisznó előrejelzők élvezik – mi az a sündisznókban, ami jobban fogyaszthatóvá teszi az ő véleményüket? - A szakértőkkel kapcsolatos bizalmatlanság nem új jelenség sem az amerikai, sem a magyar politikában. Szóba kerülnek híres hibák, amelyek megrengetik a bizalmat a szakértők tudásában, de pozitív példák is. Kapcsolódó olvasmányok: Higgyünk-e a politikai elemzőnek, és mégis melyiknek?Az Előszó részlete a Mércén: https://merce.hu/2021/02/08/higgyunk-e-a-politikai-elemzonek-es-megis-melyiknek/ Vizsgálni a vizsgálhatatlant: mitől lesz jó egy szakértő?Kritika az Új Egyenlőségen https://ujegyenloseg.hu/vizsgalni-a-vizsgalhatatlant-mitol-lesz-jo-egy-szakerto/ A szerző egy kapcsolódó könyve: Superforecasting. The Art of Science of Prediction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superforecasting:_The_Art_and_Science_of_Prediction POLITIKATÖRTÉNETI INTÉZET https://www.polhist.hu/ www.polhist.hu/hirlevel https://www.facebook.com/polhist.hu http://polhist.hu/pti-adomany-koltozes/

For more on Michael visit: https://michaelwstory.com/ Follow Michael on Twitter @MWStory Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) Tom Chivers, The AI Does Not Hate You: Superintelligence, Rationality and the Race to Save the World (2019) Nate Silver, The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't (2012) James Surowiecki, The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few (2005) Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases (1974) Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/ Timestamps 03:43 The process of superforecasting with the example of predicting how long it would take to develop a coronavirus vaccine 12:50 The wisdom of crowds 18:04 The inside vs. outside view, anchors and base rates 23:15 The foxes versus the hedgehogs 29:39 The conjunction fallacy 37:15 Accountability, falsifiability, Brier scores 46:54 Loss of institutional credibility: a problem or an opportunity? 01:02:05 The importance of A/B testing 01:06:36 Back of the envelope (Fermi) calculations 01:12:11 Psychological characteristics of superforecasters, caring about being wrong

You can find Visa’s book here: https://gumroad.com/l/friendlynerdbook Subscribe to Visa’s YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/user/visa Follow Visa on Twitter @visakanv Further References The wisdom of crowds concept is well described in Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner’s Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (2015) See @naval’s Twitter account, whose approach I compare with Visakan’s Sonke Ahrens, How to Take Smart Notes (2017) The Karate Kid (1984); Cobra Kai (2018—) Timestamps 03:18 Growing up online: how to use social media constructively to make friends and be a good member of the online community; the value of public comment spaces; the importance of scenes. 31:18 Why we no longer fear strangers in the internet age; the wisdom of crowds; public and private spaces and liminal spaces and the opportunities they bring. 47:22 Parasocial relationships; why Visakan’s approach brings him fans. 51:08 Social dark matter 57:18 What it means to be ambitious, the opportunities and dangers of idealism, the importance of public accountability 01:10:41 Getting addicted to interim stages 01:16:57 Note taking, tips for the writing process 01:33:15 Using statistical understanding to improve your marriage 01:38:52 What does mean to be a nerd? The value of pure curiosity.

Forecasting resources Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (book) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner (amazon goodreads) The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail - But Some Don't (book) by Nate Silver (amazon goodreads) How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business (book) by Douglas Hubbard (amazon goodreads) Planning Fallacy (article) by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Discusses Inside/Outside view as well. Self calibration Prediction Book AirTable calibration template by Ben Pence Notion.so calibration template by Ben Pence Credence Calibration Game by Alexei Andreev, Zachary Alethia, and Andrew Critch Decision Journal (more qualitative) Prediction Markets Augur PredictIt InTrade (inactive) Prediction Markets (article) by Gwern Music Intro music: Vlog Music Cafe Type Hip-Hop Instrumental Chill Lo-Fi Beat by Oliwia Orłowska Outro music: Game Over [Super Mario World Lofi/hiphop remix] by Neighborhood Vandal Transcript available at https://benpence.com/podcast/forecasting

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. --- This episode is sponsored by · Anchor: The easiest way to make a podcast. https://anchor.fm/app --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/pbliving/support

The Precipice: Existential Risk and the Future of Humanity By: Toby Ord Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction By: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Dune By: Frank Herbert Marriage and Civilization: How Monogamy Made Us Human By: William Tucker Euripides II: Andromache, Hecuba, The Suppliant Women, Electra By: Euripides 10% Less Democracy: Why You Should Trust Elites a Little More and the Masses a Little Less By: Garett Jones Saints Volume 2: No Unhallowed Hand By: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints

Predicting the property market and getting it right doesn't make you a nostradamus but when you get it right and people want an answer, what do you say? In this episode Stuart Wemyss Director of Prosolution and host of the Investopoly podcast joins us back from Episode 39. Stuart shares insights into how the lending space has tightened up on borrowing, why people are upgrading over investing and how he came to his accurate prediction.  Here's what we covered: How did Stuart get his 2018 forecast? Why are predictions not that reliable? What do the studies show and does it help you invest? Why asset selection is far more important than "getting a good deal". What happens at the bottom of the market? Does your property have the fundamentals that could lead to high capital growth? When should you sell a quality asset? How to become borrower ready? How to maximise your borrowing capacity?  How to best manage your spending. How have low interest rates changed investing strategy? Why to always approach the family home as an investment property? MENTIONED EPISODES:Episode 39 | Stuart WemyssEpisode 117 | Dr. Shane OliverEpisode 123 | Martin North GUEST LINKS:Buy Stuart's book Rules of the lending game. And use code ‘elephant' for a discount plus free postage. Buy Stuart's book Investopoly Subscribe to Stuart's blog Article: How important is buying below market value? The largest longitudinal study on forecasts Philip E. Tetlock HOST LINKS: Looking for a Sydney Buyers Agent? www.gooddeeds.com.auWork with Veronica: info@gooddeeds.com.au  Looking for a Mortgage Broker? www.wealthful.com.auWork with Chris: hello@wealthful.com.au Buy the book - AUCTION READY How to buy property at auction even though you're scared s#!tless:www.getauctionready.com.auUse the coupon ELEPHANT for your 30% listener discount. EPISODE TRANSCRIPT:Please note that this has been transcribed by half-human-half-robot, so brace yourself for typos and the odd bit of weirdness…This episode was recorded on 5 May, 2020. https://www.theelephantintheroom.com.au/podcasts/126

Podcast: Conversations with Tyler (LS 63 · TOP 0.05% )Episode: Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a FoxRelease date: 2020-04-22Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren't just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he's skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter  Follow Philip on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox. 

Podcast: Conversations with Tyler Episode: Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a FoxRelease date: 2020-04-22Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren't just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he's skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Read a full transcript enhanced with helpful links, or watch the full video. Recorded March 26th, 2020 Other ways to connect Follow us on Twitter and Instagram Follow Tyler on Twitter  Follow Philip on Twitter Email us: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Subscribe at our newsletter page to have the latest Conversations with Tyler news sent straight to your inbox. 

Accuracy is only one of the things we want from forecasters, says Philip Tetlock, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania and co-author of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. People also look to forecasters for ideological assurance, entertainment, and to minimize regret–such as that caused by not taking a global pandemic seriously enough. The best forecasters aren’t just intelligent, but fox-like integrative thinkers capable of navigating values that are conflicting or in tension. He joined Tyler to discuss whether the world as a whole is becoming harder to predict, whether Goldman Sachs traders can beat forecasters, what inferences we can draw from analyzing the speech of politicians, the importance of interdisciplinary teams, the qualities he looks for in leaders, the reasons he’s skeptical machine learning will outcompete his research team, the year he thinks the ascent of the West became inevitable, how research on counterfactuals can be applied to modern debates, why people with second cultures tend to make better forecasters, how to become more fox-like, and more. Follow us on Twitter and IG: @cowenconvos Email: cowenconvos@mercatus.gmu.edu Follow Philip on Twitter Follow Tyler on Twitter Facebook Newsletter

Welcome to episode 10 of the Influence Unlocked podcast – the first episode to be produced under social distancing restrictions! Our guest is a former child model who enjoys go karting and bouldering, but most of you would know Tim Fung as the CEO and cofounder of Airtasker, an online gig economy platform that helps users outsource their chores, errands and odd jobs. And Airtasker itself has raised plenty of cash in its eight years of operation, raising $90 million in capital and attracting investors like Seven West Media, Black Sheep Capital, and Vocus Communications founder and Airtasker chairman James Spenceley. (It’s also a blessing for those of us who can’t stand the sight of the dreaded Ikea allen key!) A former corporate advisor and investment banker, Tim also spent some time in the talent management space before turning to entrepreneurship and joining the Young Rich List. He has been the founder or co-founder of several companies over the years including Sydney coworking space Tank Stream Labs. Listen in to find out why Tim thinks some of the best opportunities are unpaid, and what he’s learned about leadership during the coronavirus crisis. Tim’s top reads: Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman; Radical Candor: Be a Kickass Boss Without Losing Your Humanity by Kim Malone Scott; Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke; and Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner. You can follow Tim on Goodreads for more reading inspo! Tim’s Five in Five shout-out: Mike Rosenbaum of Spacer. Leave feedback or get in touch here: Samantha Dybac Managing Director and founder The PR Hub www.theprhub.com.au/podcast https://www.instagram.com/influenceunlockedpodcast/ https://www.linkedin.com/in/samanthadybac/ Producer: Andrew Menczel http://www.piccolopodcasts.com.au/

Tim Francis is the Founder of Great Assistant, which helps Entrepreneurs get an effective and affordable Assistant who takes over the minutiae you hate doing so you can get back to the work you love. Tim and his team have now placed over 200 Assistants. Tim's own Assistant, Sarah, has been with him for 5 years, handles 98% of his email inbox, and has allowed him to focus on bigger opportunities such as appearing on Inc.com, Forbes.com, and appearing as a guest lecturer at NYU in New York City. What you'll learn about in this episode: How getting started in real estate in 2006 and then losing $20,000 to a Ponzi scheme con artist in his 20s opened Tim's eyes to his own potential How finding his incredible assistant, Sarah, transformed Tim's business and allowed him to pursue new deals and opportunities Why Tim looks for fit, timing and profitability when evaluating potential clients of his services Why not all virtual assistants are created equal, and why a truly Great Assistant has the skills, experience, time and dedication that can transform your business Why hiring a Great Assistant can cost as little as $1,000 a month, and how Great Assistant manages to attract top talent inexpensively How the Great Assistant Inner Circle service provides ongoing professional development for Great Assistants How Tim learned to turn email control over to his Great Assistant, and how that allows him to be a Transaction Engineer Why distraction is the biggest productivity-killer, and why the more things you have to focus on the less attention you can give to each thing Why Tim recommends you read Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Why being on either side of a great mentoring relationship can be powerful and transformative, and why the wrong mentor can do incredible damage to your business Resources: Website: www.SmartRealEstateCoach.com/greatassistant Profit Factory Website: https://www.profitfactory.com/ LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/timothyjfrancis/ Additional resources: Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner: https://amzn.to/2J3CNtT

Imagine that as a CCO, you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability, but to do so you would be required to expose just how unreliable the professional corporate forecasters have been. Could you do so and, more importantly, would you do so? Most generally this is the predictive capability that organizations have used. However, the new “superforecasting” movement, led by Philip E. Tetlock and others, has been gaining strength to help improve this capability. The concepts around superforecasting came of age after the intelligence failures leading up to the Iraq War. This led to the founding of the Good Judgment Project, which had as a key component a multi-year predictive tournament, which was a series of gaming exercises pitting amateurs against professional intelligence analysts. The results of the Good Judgment Project. Today, I explain its applicability to compliance. Three key takeaways: Imagine you could create a team which might well dramatically improve your company’s compliance and risk forecasting ability. It is essential to track the prediction outcomes and provide timely feedback to improve forecasting going forward. Like any innovation, there must be a commitment from management on moving forward.

Join Michelle today as she reveals the process she developed over the years of turning her what-ifs into real things. Book mentioned: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock: http://michellespiva.com/Amz-PhilipETetlock-Superforecasting Don't forget to use our Amazon link to support the podcast by using our Amazon Shopping link! http://MichelleSpiva.com/Amz For Interviews, sponsorship, or coaching/consulting, please send inquires to: MichelleSpiva at gmail dot com (no solicitation-spam; *You do not have permission to add this email to any email list or autoresponder without knowledge or consent) _____________________________ Further support this podcast, please do so by using any of these methods: All your Amazon shopping: http://michellespiva.com/Amz Venmo: @MichelleSpiva1  CashApp: $MichelleSpiva PayPal: http://bit.ly/Donate2Michelle Patreon: https://Patreon.com/MichelleSpiva Don't forget to like, comment, subscribe, rate, and review. Follow Michelle here: Facebook: facebook.com/FollowMichelleSpiva Twitter: @mspiva  IG: @MichelleSpiva  --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/michelle-spiva/support

Get in touch with the guest, Charles Chu: via his website his Patreon page via [Twitter] 3 or on [Medium] 4. RESOURCES: Richard Feynman's bird story Mental Models, Dragonfloxes, and How to Think Real Good Charle's best of My favorite tweet by Charles The Righteous Mind: Why Good People Are Divided by Politics and Religion by Jonathan Haidt Sunk costs Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman Gary Klein's books - known for the cognitive models Charles Darwin's List of the Pros and Cons of Marriage Gut Feelings: The Intelligence of the Unconscious by Gerd Gigerenzer Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner Farnam Street blog

In Folge 29 ist Marion Haider, Digital Strategist bei Liechtenecker, zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: "Die Macht der Gewohnheit" von Charles Duhigg. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Wir sehen uns an wie Gewohnheiten entstehen und wie man nicht gewünschte wieder los wird oder Gewohnheiten gezielt nutzen kann. 2.) Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Was man vom Radfahren lernen kann und warum es wichtig ist, sich einfach mal aufs Rad zu setzen.

In this episode, we are joined by cognitive psychologist, Christopher Chabris, who is perhaps best known for his collaborative research on the Ig Nobel prize-winning ‘Gorillas in Our Midst' experiment and his subsequent popular psychology book, The Invisible Gorilla. Chris is an Associate Professor of Psychology at Union College in New York and a Senior Investigator at Geisinger Health System. Why Chris believes companies often fail the test of inattentional blindness during the product design phase. Why our attention is more limited than we think and how learning self-control can help us to take in more information. Why we overvalue confidence and how we can work to recognize and overcome our own cognitive biases. Key Takeaways and Learnings Inattentional blindness: the surprising facts on how limited our attention is. Illusion of attention: why we think we pay more attention to things than we actually do. Human cognitive architecture: how understanding the limitations and foibles of the human mind can lead to successful product and technology design. Links and Resources Mentioned in this Episode Get in touch with Christopher via email or Twitter Christopher's website The Invisible Gorilla: How Our Intuitions Deceive Us, a book by Christopher Chabris Invisible Gorilla, Facebook page Gorillas in Our Midst, scientific paper Selective Attention test, YouTube video of the experiment Ulric Neisser, the father of Cognitive Psychology A Deadly Wandering: A Mystery, a Landmark Investigation, and the Astonishing Science of Attention in the Digital Age, a book by Matt Richtel 65% of Americans believe they are above average in intelligence, a study by Patrick R. Heck, Daniel J. Simons and Christopher F. Chabris Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Maintenance: An Inquiry into Values, a book by Robert M Pirsig Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, a book by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner Everything Is Obvious: How Common Sense Fails Us, a book by Duncan J. Watts Thinking, Fast and Slow, a book by Daniel Kahneman Innovaton Ecosystem Episode 070 – The Return on Investment of Mental Models with Robert Hagstrom Innovaton Ecosystem Episode 078 – Human Innovation, Smart Machines with Ed Hess

What if you could create a team that would dramatically improve your company's forecasting ability? But to do so, you must expose those professional corporate forecasters' unreliability. Would you do it? Here for Part 2 of the five-part Innovation in Compliance series, Tom shares his insight into "superforecasting" and its role in compliance functions. Forecasting is the predictive capability organizations use to anticipate or enhance outcomes. The new "superforecasting" movement, led by Philip E. Tetlock and others, aims to enhance this capability even further by following four precepts.To frame the precepts, in a recent Harvard Business Review (HBR) article by Tetlock and Paul J. H. Schoemaker, entitled “Superforecasting: How to Upgrade Your Company’s Judgment,” the authors revealed three general observations: “Talented generalists can outperform specialists in making forecasts.”   “Carefully crafted training can enhance predictive acumen.”    “Well-run teams can outperform individuals.”  Here are the four precepts to move into superforecasting:Find the sweet spot between something entirely straightforward or seemingly impossible. For example, using scientific expertise and sound business judgment, or using data and intangibles like cultural fit and anticipated synergies to gauge outcomes.Train for good judgment. Provide your employees with the necessary training to understand probability concepts and techniques, as well as the effects cognitive biases have on their judgment. Build the right teams. Your team composition is critical to your superforecasting success. Look for: “Cautious, humble, open-minded, analytical, and good with numbers. In assembling teams, companies should look for natural forecasters who show an alertness to bias, a knack for sound reasoning, and a respect for data.” There must be trust among your team members to facilitate good outcomes. Regardless of errors and miscalculations, the superforecasters and the senior management should work together to build a secure environment where outcomes do not threaten the team itself.It's also important to note that tracking performance and providing feedback are essential to improve forecasting outcomes in the future. This also helps in creating an audit trail that the company can use to learn from both good and bad predictions. Ultimately, this will provide the team with the insight necessary to replicate, anticipate, or enhance specific predictions. Ongoing EducationIf you’re a compliance professional looking for a convenient and effective way to fulfill your continuing education requirements, go to FCPAComplianceReport.com/Courses and choose from 4 hour-long training packages that will keep you up to date with the latest developments in the compliance field. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

In Folge 26 ist Alexandra Wolk von Three Coins, einem Social Business, das eine Entwickungsschmiede für innovative Bildungsformate im Bereich Finanzkompetenz ist, zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: Schulden. Die ersten 5.000 Jahre von David Graeber. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Schulden sind nichts Unauslöschbares und die Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Theorie von Adam Smith über den Ursprung des Tauschhandels ist eigentlich ein Mythos. Außerdem erfahrt ihr, für wie viel Geld Susanne einen Regenwurm essen oder sich eine Glatze rasieren würde. Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Wie deprimierend oder erleichternd ist es, dass alles nur ein Zufall ist und kein Schicksal und wie können Manager von unterschiedlichen Meinungen in ihrem Team profitieren?

In Folge 25 ist Bernhard Hofer, Geschäftsführer und Gründer von talentify.me zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: 1.) Creative Schools von Ken Robinson. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Warum Bildung nicht in Ministerien passiert und man daher nicht darauf warten sollte, dass sich die Dinge von oben ändern. Die Revolution startet von unten. Maßgeblich für Bildung ist die Beziehung zwischen Schüler und Lehrer und dafür braucht es Vertrauen. 2.) Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner. Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Was ist Fermisierung und wie kann man sie nutzen, um Prognosen genauer zu machen? Und warum es wichtig ist, erst einmal mit einer Außensicht auf ein Problem zu zugehen anstatt sich sofort in Details zu stürzen.

In Folge 24 ist Jürgen Liechtenecker, Meditationstrainer und ehemaliger Geschäftsführer des Liechtenecker Labs zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: 1.) Die Kunst des Lebens von William Hart – Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Was ist Vipassana Meditation und wie macht sie das Leben leichter? Zusammengefasst frei nach Karl Valentin “Heute gehe ich mich mal besuchen. Mal sehen, ob ich zuhause bin.” 2.) Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner – Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Wir reden über Schwarmintelligenz und warum Erfolge anderer nicht reproduzierbar sind, weil sie ja mathematische Ausreisser sind.

In Folge 23 ist Doris Christina Steiner, Managing Director Digital bei Ketchum Publico zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: 1.) Meine geniale Freundin von Elena Ferrante Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Wie Belletristik dazu inspiriert Fakten als gute Geschichte aufzubereiten und warum es nicht sinnvoll ist die “Intelligenz von Frauen” auf Kinder und Haushalt zu beschränken. 2.) Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan Gardner Die besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Warum Zweifel wichtig sind für die Beurteilung von Prognosen und was die Probleme bei der Überprüfung von Vorhersagen sind.

In Folge 22 ist Judith Denkmayr, Verantwortliche für Marketing und Kommunikation beim Medien-Start-up Addendum zu Gast. Wir widmen uns folgenden Büchern: Bad Blood von John CarreyrouDie besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Alles rund um den Fall Theranos und deren Gründerin Elizabeth Holmes. Wie systematisch Investoren und Öffentlichkeit getäuscht wurden, um den Mythos des Biotech Einhorn Start Ups am Leben zu halten. Superforecasting: Die Kunst der richtigen Prognose von Philip E. Tetlock & Dan GardnerDie besprochenen Highlights aus dem Buch: Wie treffsicher Experten Prognosen vorhersagen können und was wir daraus lernen können.

Hur ser världen ut imorgon? Nästa vecka? Om ett år? Att förutspå framtiden är en svår konst. Men det finns några som lyckas bättre än andra: Superprognostiker. Hur gör de egentligen? ESSÄ: Detta är en text där skribenten reflekterar över ett ämne eller ett verk. Åsikter som uttrycks är skribentens egna. Ska det regna i morgon? Leder den här utbildningen till jobb? Vem vinner nästa val? Vem vinner allsvenskan? Ska jag ta en livförsäkring eller inte? Våra liv och våra beslut grundar sig i stor utsträckning på förutsägelser om framtiden. Vi räknar på den, räknar med den, hoppas på och oroar oss för den. Det finns experter som vill hjälpa oss med våra prognoser, meteorologer, börsanalytiker, statistiker, seismologer, framtidsspanande kolumnister. Många av våra förutsägelser tar vi helt enkelt för givna, att det blir en dag också i morgon, att affärerna är öppna som vanligt, att telefoner, tåg, apparater åtminstone för det mesta fungerar. Men ju längre framåt vi blickar desto svårare blir det. Aktiekursen de närmsta tre månaderna går förmodligen att säga något om men det är betydligt svårare att säga något om världsekonomin år 2050. Hur vädret ser ut i morgon går att ta reda på, men hur det ser ut om en månad är i princip omöjligt att sia om, och då får de som spår i kaffesump säga vad de vill. Det visade sig att en liten del av dessa frivilliga amatörer kunde förutsäga framtiden med förbluffande stor säkerhet Psykologen och statsvetaren Philip E Tetlock gjorde sig ett namn redan för trettio år sedan med sitt forskningsprojekt Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know? där han visade att politiska experter inte kunde förutspå framtiden bättre än en pilkastande schimpans. Men sedan dess har han arbetat vidare. I det omfattande The Good Judgement Project som han och medförfattaren Dan Gardner beskriver i boken Konsten att förutsäga framtiden har han arrangerat ett slags prognostävlingar där 2800 frivilliga får svara på frågor om världshändelser, ofta med politisk anknytning. Det visade sig att en liten del av dessa frivilliga amatörer kunde förutsäga framtiden med förbluffande stor säkerhet, 30% bättre än den genomsnittlige amerikanske underrättelseanalytikern, som ändå har tillgång till mer och ibland hemligstämplad information. Tetlock kallar dessa personer för superprognostiker och försökte ta reda på vilka de var och hur de tänkte. Superprognostikerna är allmänbildade, kunskapstörstande och intelligenta Tetlocks analys kommer att göra alla med förhoppningar om synskhet och siarförmågor besvikna för när han analyserar superprognostikerns egenskaper visar det sig att det är hårt arbete, insamlande av information, nyfikenhet och omdöme som fäller utslaget. Superprognostikerna kan för övrigt inte heller förutsäga framtiden, det kan nämligen ingen, men kommer fram till prognoser som är något bättre än alla andras. Och det avgör saken, det vet varenda hygglig pokerspelare. Superprognostikerna är allmänbildade, kunskapstörstande och intelligenta, men å andra sidan finns det många med dessa egenskaper som inte alls kan förutspå framtiden speciellt bra. Mer specifikt är då att superprognostiker aldrig är låsta vid en uppfattning utan beredda att erkänna sina fel. De är försiktiga, ödmjuka och tror inte på ödet. De betraktar sina åsikter som hypoteser som kan prövas och inte klenoder att slå vakt om. De gillar matematik och kan räkna ut saker. De är pragmatiska. De utvärderar sitt arbete och mäter sina resultat. De är beredvilliga att ompröva sina utgångspunkter. Men läsupplevelsen står också i skarp kontrast till vad som tycks vara den allmänna synen på framtiden som allt dystrare. Inalles blir slutsatsen en befriande avförtrollning av siarförmågan och så långt från kristallkulor, tarotort och handflatans livslinje man kan komma. Å andra sidan kan det tyckas som en fullständig självklarhet (och ha ganska lite med framtidsförutsägelser att göra) att kvalificerade gissningar förutsätter kunskap. Allt fler människor hoppas allt mindre på framtiden. Det finns ett slags positiv positivism i boken, en känsla av att saker går att göra någonting åt, bara man arbetar hårt, systematiskt och tar reda på fakta. Har man den minsta pragmatiska naturvetenskapliga ådra är det svårt att inte dras med i entusiasmen. Men läsupplevelsen står också i skarp kontrast till vad som tycks vara den allmänna synen på framtiden som allt dystrare. Mätningar, också i Sverige de senaste åren, exempelvis från Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap, visar att allt fler människor hoppas allt mindre på framtiden. Detta trots, menar Tetlock, att det finns mycket som talar för att världsläget inte alls ser så illa ut och anför exempelvis att livslängden ökat med 23 år på fem decennier, och att såväl barnadödlighet, väpnade konflikter som dödsoffer i krig minskat. Dissonansen mellan upplevelsen och sakfrågan förklaras för att vara en kognitiv illusion, som bland annat sociala medier bidrar till, med en för ensidig informationsinhämtning och ett meningsutbyte med endast sina likar. Det som ibland brukar benämnas filterbubblor. Samtidens misströstan inför framtiden kan också tillskrivas det faktum att den tycks oviss, snarare än dyster. Han hänvisar också till psykologisk forskning i så kallad "skalokänslighet" och beskriver en studie där en grupp informerades om att två tusen oljeindränkta flyttfåglar drunknar varje år. Nästa grupp fick veta att tjugotusen flyttfåglar drunknade. Och ytterligare nästa att tvåhundratusen drunknade. När de sedan fick frågan om hur mycket de kunde tänka sig att betala för att förhindra fågeldöden blev genomsnittet för alla grupper exakt lika mycket, 80 dollar. Alla såg samma syn framför sina ögon, bilden av en döende fågel och själva skalan, proportionerna, försvann i bakgrunden. Till sist får vi heller inte glömma att det bakom prognoser ofta lurar ideologi och egenintresse. Samtidens misströstan inför framtiden kan också tillskrivas det faktum att den tycks oviss, snarare än dyster. Människan har en stark motvilja till osäkerhet; det visar exempelvis den så kallade Ellsbergs paradox som går ut på följande: En försöksperson får välja mellan två urnor med vita och svarta kulor. Får man en svart kula vinner man. Inuti den ena urnan finns femtio vita och femtio svarta kulor; i den andra urnan finns det en okänd mängd svarta respektive vita kulor. Trots att chansen till vinst är exakt densamma i båda krukorna, 50/50, väljer överlägset flest människor den första urnan, eftersom man då åtminstone vet förutsättningarna. Vår motvilja mot osäkerhet kan rentav leda till att vi föredrar att något dåligt med säkerhet inträffar framför att något dåligt kanske inträffar. Till sist får vi heller inte glömma att det bakom prognoser ofta lurar ideologi och egenintresse. Svaret på exempelvis frågan om "det går bra för Sverige" färgas ofrånkomligen av om den som räknar på siffrorna befinner sig i regeringsställning eller opposition. Framtiden är osäker. Men om den nu känns mörkare och mer oviss än någonsin kanske vi kan finna ett slags tröst i att människor genom historien synnerligen ofta betraktat framtiden som mörkare och mer oviss än någonsin.   Ulf Karl Olov Nilsson, författare och psykoanalytiker Detta är en redigerad återutsändning av OBS från november 2016.   Litteratur "Expert Political Judgement: How good is it? How can we know?" Philip E Tetlock, Princeton University Press (2005) "Konsten att förutsäga framtiden: en bok om superprognostik"- Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner, Bokförlaget Daidalos (2016)

Carmen Simon shows how to become impossible to ignore by integrating the right components to influence our audience's minds. You'll Learn:1) The three components of a good story2) Why causation in a story can be both sexy and tricky at the same time3) Why relatable emotions are more important than strong emotionsAbout Carmen Dr. Carmen Simon is a Cognitive Neuroscientist and Founder of Memzy. She has applied the latest neuroscience research findings to deliver workshops, design, and consulting services. Carmen is a published author and a frequent keynote speaker at conferences in the U.S., Canada, Europe and Asia. She holds doctorates in instructional technology and cognitive psychology, and uses her knowledge to offer business professionals a flashlight and a magnet: one to call attention to what's important in a message, the other to make it stick to the audience's brain so they can act on it. Carmen's brain science coaching helps business professionals motivate listeners and stand out from too much sameness in the industry.Items Mentioned in this Show:Carmen's Website: MEMZYCarmen's book: Impossible to IgnoreBook: Superforecasting by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan GardnerPrevious episode: 011: Making Messages Memorable with Dr. Carmen SimonView transcript, show notes, and links at http://AwesomeAtYourJob.com/ep237.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

If you want to learn about cognitive biases all humans share, you might start with Daniel Kahneman’s ‘Thinking, Fast and Slow’, or the paper he wrote in 1974 with friend and colleague Amos Tversky, ‘Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases’. Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner have given us an interesting way to practice doing so in their book, Super Forecasting. In their story about a relatively small group of super forecasters who beat IARPA’s own government-backed researchers in a tournament of geopolitical forecasting, Tetlock and Gardner provide a blueprint for beginning one’s own journey of forecasting better than the average human (or at least better than you yourself do now). You can support my work at https://patreon.com/evm/

Alex Chua works at Ecolab as a Manager in Finance Planning and Analysis. Alex began his nonprofit experience at various organizations including College Houses in Austin, Junior Achievement, The Woodlands Marathon, The Houston Rodeo, and the Evelyn Rubenstein Jewish Community Center of Houston as a part of his MBA.   As a kid, Alex developed a love of chess and became a chess master. He enjoys guitar, travel, and healthy eating. Alex is a certified public accountant in the state of Texas. His current interests include issues related to civil rights, independent journalism, and government oversight.   Book Recommendations SuperForecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock So Good They Can't Ignore You: Why Skills Trump Passion in the Quest for Work You Love by Cal Newport   Anthony’s Challenge; This week, make a list of 5 causes you feel are most important to society. Cross out the cause you feel least passionate about. Keep crossing out causes until you have 1 or 2 remaining. Research existing local and national organizations that work on your cause and join.   http://www.goingdeepwithaaron.com/podcast   Connect with Anthony LinkedIn Medium Website Chess If you liked this interview, check out episode 162 with Kwame Christian where we discuss negotiation and making deals.

Chris and Elecia answer listener emails on-air. Patreon Embedded.fm blog SparkFun Tinker Kit BB8 Sphero Jewelbots (from #173) Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner  The Wild Robot by Peter Brown

ECFR’s director Mark Leonard speaks with ECFR experts Vessela Tcherneva, Silvia Francescon, Ulrike Franke, Borja Lasheras, and board member Ivan Krastev, about summer readings. The list includes foreign policy books, wider readings to understand the world we live in, and finally what to read to get away from it all. The podcast was recorded on 28 July 2016. Books discussed: The force of reason by Oriana Fallaci Senza la Guerra by Massimo Cacciari, Lucio Caracciolo, Ernesto Galli della Lggia and Elisabetta Rasy La febbre di Trump: Un fenomeno Americano by Mattia Ferraresi Liberta a migrare: Perche ci spostiamo da sempre ed e bene cosi by Valerio Calzano and Telmo Pievani En immersion a Molenbeek by Hind Fraihi Reichtum ohne Gier by Sahra Wagenknecht Wunschdenken: Europa, Währung, Bildung, Einwanderung – warum Politik so häufig scheitert by Thilo Sarrazin 1913: The year before the storm by Florian Illies La France pour la vie by Nikolas Sarkozy Expert political judgement: How good is it? How can we know? By Philip E. Tetlock Global inequality: A new approch for the age of globalisation by Branko Milanovic El retorno de los chamanes by Victor Lapuente Siria, el país de las almas rotas by Javier Espinosa and Monica G. Prieto Esodo: Storia del nuovo millennio by Domenico Quirico The search for Europe: Contrasting approaches, published by BBVA 1917: Razgadka “russkoj” revolyutsii by Nikolaj Starikov The Silk Road: A new history of the world by Peter Frankopan Political epistemics: The secret police, the opposition, and the end of east German socialism by Andreas Glaeser Thinking in time: The uses of history for decision makers by Richard E. Neustadt and Ernest R. May Diplomat i gradinar by Ivan D. Stanchov Ill fares the land by Tony Judt When facts change by Tony Judt Bloodlands: Europe between Hitler and Stalin by Timothy Snyder The responsible company: What we’ve learned from Patagonia’s first 40 years by Yvon Chouinard and Vincent Stanley Drone warfare by John Kaag and Sarah Kreps Swarm troopers: How small drones will conquer the world by David Hambling Sternstunden der Menschheit by Stefan Zweig The Star Rover by Jack London The Climb by Anatoli Boukreev and G. Weston De Walt Death at La Fenice by Donna Leon American Pastoral by Philip Roth

Hogyan jósol egy fizikus? Lecsukható-e egy kutató az előrejelzéséért? Küszöbön a technoludditák? Szalai Feri, fizikus volt a vendégünk. 01'15" - Tenyérből is tud jósolni a fizikus. Meg a hazugságvizsgáló gép. 01'54" - Hallgatói reakciók: a kancsóka-kritika. Eszik-e cickányt a hűsevő növény? 05'30" - Milyen podcasteket hallgatunk? 07'28" - Hogyan foglalhatjuk össze 400 Freakonomics adás tartalmát egy mondatban? 10'38" - Seth Macfarlane a Simpson család és a tudomány. 12'11" - Mi köze a fizikának az elnökválasztáshoz? Feri 73%-os valószínűséggel jósolja, hogy a következő elnök... kiderül a hanganyagból. Hogyan jósolnak a fizikusok? Mi a kapcsolat a sci-fi és a makroökonómia között? 16'00" - Milyen a kellően jó jóslás? Ezt a könyvet ajánlotta Feri: Philip E. Tetlock és Dan Gardner: Superforecasting - The Art and Science of Prediction. Az ember egy előrejelző gép...különösen 2%-uk. Lehet pénzt keresni a hírpiacon (prediction market)? 21'41" - Milyen az igazán izgalmas előrejelzés? És hogy kavar be a pillangóhatás? 22'31" - Előre tudjuk jelezni az időjárást? Mik a korlátok? 25'14" - Mi tegyünk, ha nem jön be a jóslat? Korrekt-e, amit a facebook gondol rólad? 26'57" - Mi a legnagyobb probléma a gazdasági előrejelzéssel? Mikor lesz a következő válság? 27'56" - Mi a szigma? Hihető-e a Higgs-bozon? Előrejelezhető-e a háború? Valószínűségszámítás és kémelhárítás. 30'38" - Az előrejelzők felelőssége: kockáztassuk-e a pánikot? Mini esettanulmány Olaszországból: börtön az előrejelzésért? Telepítsük-e ki San Franciscót? Párhuzam a svájci frank hitellel. 36'55" - Pénzbüntetés a rossz román boszorkányoknak. Nem, nem a középkorban. Kicsit abszurd a téma. Hapci megpróbálja összeszedni a leesett állát az asztal alól. 40'56" - Az előítéletek. A mesterséges intelligencia előítéletes. Nem-reprezentatív mintavétel az Oscar-átadón, az oviban és lényegében mindenütt. A robotoknak nincs értékítélete... ööö, már miért ne lenne? Mi az érzés? 44'20" - Amikor a gépek előítéletessé válnak az emberekkel szemben. Mi van, ha úgy gondolják, hogy a világ optimálisabb emberek nélkül? Upsz! Segít a robotika három törvénye? 46'04" - A fogkefe- és fogkrémválaszték dilemmája. Hogyan jelezzük előre az étterem minőségét? 49'10" - Az előítélet lebontása: az újramintázás. Mi a gond ezzel? Lebonthatjuk a mesterséges intelligencia velünk szembeni előítéletét? Megéri-e a saját előítéleteinket újrakalibrálni? 52'05" - A részvénypiacon a munkát az algoritmusok végzik, az előnyöket viszont az emberek élvezik. Egyelőre. Újkori ludditák jönnek? Gépek vs. migránsok. 53'28" - "Annak a valószínűsége, hogy a technoludditizmus a következő 5 évben [...] több mint 200 000 embert fog érinteni Magyarországon, 67%." Na erre öt év múlva visszatérünk. Addig definiáljuk, hogy hogy mérjük az attitűdöt. Kövesd a Szertárt... ...Youtube-on: www.youtube.com/szertar ...Facebookon: www.facebook.com/szertar ...Instagramon: www.instagram.com/szertar ...Soundcloudon: @szertar

Venkatesh Rao is the founder of Ribbonfarm and the author of Breaking Smart. “I would say I was blind and deaf and did not know anything about how the world worked until I was about 25. It took until almost 35 before I actually cut loose from the script. The script is a very, very powerful thing. The script wasn’t working for me.” Thanks to MailChimp and CreativeLive for sponsoring this week's episode. Show Notes: @vgr Ribbonfarm Rao on Longform [3:00] "Seeking Density in the Gonzo Theater" (Ribbonfarm • Jan 2012) [5:00] "You Are Not an Artisan" (Ribbonfarm • July 2013) [6:00] Breaking Smart: Season 1 [11:00] "Why Software Is Eating the World" (Marc Andreessen • Wall Street Journal • Aug 2011) [19:00] Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction (Philip E. Tetlock • Crown • 2015) [31:00] "The End of History?" (Francis Fukuyama • The National Interest • 1989) [pdf] [39:00] Quora [48:00] "Deep Play" (Aeon • Nov 2013) [48:00] "The American Cloud" (Aeon • July 2013) [48:00] "Why Solving Climate Change Will Be Like Mobilizing for War" (The Atlantic • Oct 2015)

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class V Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-v

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class V Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-v

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class IV Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iv

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class III Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class III Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-iii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class II Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-ii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class II Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-ii

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class I Part I: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i

PHILIP E. TETLOCK (https://www.edge.org/memberbio/philip_tetlock), Political and Social Scientist, is the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, with appointments in Wharton, psychology and political science. He is co-leader of the Good Judgment Project, a multi-year forecasting study, the author of Expert Political Judgment and (with Aaron Belkin) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics, and co-author (with Dan Gardner) of Superforecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction . Class I Part II: https://www.edge.org/conversation/philip_tetlock-edge-master-class-2015-a-short-course-in-superforecasting-class-i

Thank you Soraya Darabi ( https://theconsumervc.com/2020/07/13/soraya-darabi/ ) for the intro to our guest today Maya Horgan Famodu ( https://twitter.com/mayahorgan ). Maya's the partner and founder of Ingressive Capital ( https://ingressivecapital.com/ ). Ingressive Capital is an early venture capital fund located in Nigeria and invests in founders and companies in sub-saharan Africa. Some of her investments include Paystack, AWA Bike, and Vesicash. I highly recommend following Maya on Twitter @mayahorgan ( https://twitter.com/mayahorgan ). You can also follow your host, Mike, on Twitter @mikegelb ( https://twitter.com/MikeGelb ). You can also follow for episode announcements @consumervc ( https://twitter.com/ConsumerVc ). Excited to announce The Consumer VC Summit: October 13-15. It will be three days of discussions, talks about investing in CPG and physical goods at the early stages AND networking and mentoring sessions. Click Here to purchase your tickets ( https://summit.theconsumervc.com/checkout/select-tickets/ ). A few books that inspired Maya personally are Why Buddism is True? ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/1439195463?camp=1789&creativeASIN=1439195463&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Robert Wright, Fear ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062004735?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0062004735&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Thich Nhat Hanh, How to Change Your Mind ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0735224153?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0735224153&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Michael Pollan, The Enlightened Gardner ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B087P6W2KQ?camp=1789&creativeASIN=B087P6W2KQ&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Sydney Banks. A couple books that inspired her professionally are The Hard Things About Things ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0062273205?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0062273205&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Ben Horowitz and Superforecast ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0804136718?camp=1789&creativeASIN=0804136718&ie=UTF8&linkCode=xm2&tag=theconsumervc-20 ) by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. In this episode you'll learn - * What inspired her to found Ingressive? What is special about founding a fund that seeks to invest in a frontier market like Sub-Saharan Africa? What are the particular opportunities and problems. What are some of the biggest opportunities that you focus on? What are some of the challenges when starting a technology company in Nigeria. Is finding exits difficult? I remember you mentioned how lots of folks talk about Kenya and the incredible innovation that's happening there, but 75% of those companies were founded by ex-pats. How do you see the process of building a local Nigerian, entrepreneurial community? * What are some of the biggest misconceptions about a frontier region, like West Africa? What are some of the differences when it comes to your due diligence process and what milestones does a company have to achieve in order for you to be interested? What's one thing that you would change when it came to venture capital? * 10 day silent meditation retreat - passana * Helped takeaway preconceived notion * What's your most recent investment and what makes you excited about it? * What's one piece of advice for founders? Should more of them be looking at Africa?