Podcasts about prediction markets

Episode Description:Prediction markets allow people to trade contracts tied to real-world events—from elections and weather to rocket launches, airport traffic, awards, and the words a public figure might use during a speech.But James argues that having an opinion isn't enough. Betting on your favorite team, preferred candidate, or a vague feeling about what might happen is speculation without an edge. His rule is simple: only participate when you believe you have an unfair advantage.In this solo episode, James explains the two advantages he looks for. The first comes from understanding how prediction-market participants behave—especially their tendency to overlook outcomes that appear almost certain because the potential payout looks small. The second comes from researching a particular market more thoroughly than the other participants.He walks through three trades he made: whether the U.S. government will confirm the existence of extraterrestrial life before 2027, whether SpaceX will exceed a specified number of June launches, and whether Donald Trump will use the phrase “movie star” during an upcoming speech. He also examines TSA passenger data to show why good research sometimes leads to the most important decision of all: not making the trade.The larger lesson is not that any outcome is guaranteed. It is that a repeatable process—researching the data, comparing your estimated probability with the market price, diversifying, and walking away when the edge is unclear—is more useful than betting on instinct.Editorial Note:Prediction-market contracts are speculative and can result in the loss of the full amount committed to a position. Short-term returns expressed on an annualized basis are hypothetical comparisons, not guarantees that the same opportunity can be repeated throughout a year. This episode is educational and reflects James's personal reasoning, not individualized financial advice.What You'll Learn:How binary prediction-market contracts are priced and settled.Why James avoids trades based only on personal preference or intuition.The two types of informational advantage he looks for before entering a market.Why apparently likely outcomes can still be priced below James's estimate of their probability.How to compare a contract's price with your independent estimate of the outcome.Why diversification matters when a single losing contract can erase several smaller gains.How historical speeches, launch schedules, and public datasets can inform a trade.Why declining to place a bet is often the correct conclusion when the evidence is inconclusive.Timestamped Chapters:[02:00] The Search for an Unfair AdvantageWhy James believes a feeling or personal preference is not a sufficient reason to place a bet.[02:43] What Is a Prediction Market?How event contracts cover subjects ranging from weather and elections to entertainment, sports, and public speeches.[03:29] How Yes-or-No Contracts WorkA hypothetical presidential contract illustrates pricing, payouts, and profit.[04:26] Don't Bet on What You Want to HappenWhy fandom, political preference, and intuition can distort judgment.[05:12] Two Types of Informational AdvantageJames distinguishes between understanding market behavior and possessing unusually strong research about one event.[06:30] Why Traders May Overlook Near-CertaintiesHow small-looking payouts and the cost of tying up capital can leave heavily favored outcomes below full value.[07:52] Will the Government Confirm That Aliens Exist?James explains why he bought “No” contracts on an official confirmation occurring before 2027.[10:40] Diversifying a Basket of High-Probability TradesWhy James prefers multiple positions rather than concentrating everything in one supposedly certain outcome.[11:20] The SpaceX Launch TradeUsing completed launches, the remaining calendar, and an upcoming mission to evaluate a five-day contract.[13:38] Turning Presidential Speeches Into DataHow James analyzes recurring words and phrases instead of relying on opinions about Donald Trump.[15:38] Betting Against “Movie Star”Why past speeches, synonyms, context, and the market price led James to take the “No” side.[18:30] TSA Passenger Data—and Knowing When to PassHistorical checkpoint volume offers useful evidence, but not necessarily enough of an edge to justify a trade.[21:01] Three Trades and One Repeatable SystemJames reviews his positions and the difference between market-level and event-specific advantages.[23:00] Prediction Markets as a Continuing ExperimentWhy James plans to keep testing the approach and sharing shorter updates.Additional Resources:Kalshi: What Are Prediction Markets? — An introduction to event contracts, pricing, and settlement.Kalshi: How Prices Are Determined — How opposing orders are matched and market prices are established.Kalshi FAQ — Platform rules, prohibited conduct, trading mechanics, and account information.CFTC: Understanding Prediction Markets and Event Contracts — The federal regulator's overview of event contracts and their uses.CFTC: Contracts and Products — Regulatory information about derivatives and event contracts.TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers — Official daily passenger-screening figures used for historical comparisons.SpaceX Launches — Official information about completed and upcoming SpaceX missions.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Event contracts and digital asset derivatives are emerging under CFTC oversight, while listed options and ETFs remain SEC-regulated. Meanwhile, some platforms are offering both. This panel will examine: •    The SEC and CFTC frameworks and their implications for innovation. •    Whether event contracts should be viewed as gaming, financial hedging, or a hybrid. •    How crypto-linked options and ETFs fit into the regulatory patchwork. •    What market participants need to prepare for as regulatory convergence (or conflict) plays out. Moderator: The Honorable Dawn D. Stump, Principal, Stump Strategic Panelists: JJ Kinahan, Senior Vice President, Head of Retail Expansion and Alternative Investment Products, Cboe Global Markets Ryan Jachym, Global Head of Markets Policy in the Office of Government and Regulatory Affairs, Goldman Sachs Summer Mersinger, Chief Executive Officer, Blockchain Association Thomas Plummer, Prediction Markets, Jump Trading This panel is proudly sponsored by State Street Investment Management

Ryan Spoon, President of Yahoo Media Group, talks with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about Cannes Lions, World Cup and prediction markets. We also talk with The Information's Cory Weinberg about SpaceX's 74-day IPO track and its balance sheet implications for OpenAI and Anthropic, and Yueqi Yang about Kalshi holding informal IPO talks after surpassing $2 billion in annualized revenue. Finally, we get into Bernie Sanders' new 50% AI equity tax proposal with our reporter Eli Rosenberg.Articles discussed on this episode: https://www.theinformation.com/articles/law-professor-behind-bernies-ai-sovereign-wealth-fund-ideahttps://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/cannes-ad-festival-puts-openais-projections-spotlighthttps://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-light-balance-sheet-face-hard-look-ipoSubscribe: YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_hSign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agendaTITV airs weekdays on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.Follow us:X: https://x.com/theinformationIG: https://www.instagram.com/theinformation/TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@titv.theinformationLinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/theinformation/Chapters:00:00 - Introduction 01:13 - Yahoo Media's Ryan Spoon on Cannes Lions & Live Sports 05:21 - Prediction Markets, Polymarket, and Kalshi Tactics 11:20 - SpaceX's Record 74-Day Confidential IPO Window 15:19 - OpenAI & Anthropic Off-Balance-Sheet Commitments 24:43 - Kalshi Crosses $2B Revenue, Explores Bank Talks 31:02 - Inside Bernie Sanders' $7T Sovereign AI Wealth Tax 36:25 - The UC Davis Law Professor Behind the AI Equity Plan

Prediction markets have become one of the biggest stories in gaming, fintech and sports betting, but Canada's approach looks very different from the United States.Kalshi is entering the Canadian market through a partnership with Wealthsimple, giving users access to thousands of event contracts. However, there is one major restriction: no sports betting contracts and no political markets. In this episode of iGaming Daily, Fernando Noodt is joined by Canadian Gaming Business Editor Tom Nightingale to break down:

CoinDesk hosts Rebecca Rettig and Renato Mariotti open on the record-breaking SpaceX IPO, then turn to Terry Duffy's exit from CME and the exchange's threatened lawsuit against the CFTC over whether perpetuals are swaps or futures. Their guest is Dan Berkovitz, former Commissioner of the CFTC and former General Counsel of the SEC, now at Millennium Management, who brings a rare both-agencies vantage point to the push for SEC–CFTC harmonization, the swaps-versus-futures fight over perps, and the "economic purpose" test he argues sports-betting prediction markets cannot meet. - Check out CoinDesk's latest episode of Public Keys from the NYSE: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=75LrBmSScvY&list=PLZWrc_gWChqnim-9ZbIKZTOrPA7IgFKVR&pp=sAgC - Register now for CoinDesk's Policy and Regulation event on September 22, 2026: https://policy-regulation.coindesk.com/. - Timecodes: 00:00 The Role of CFTC 00:25 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 00:44 The Record SpaceX IPO and Retail Demand 01:41 Synthetic SpaceX Perps on Hyperliquid 03:40 Terry Duffy Exits CME and Sues the CFTC 06:07 Dan Berkovitz Joins the Show 06:44 Can the SEC and CFTC Harmonize? 08:29 Are Perpetuals Swaps or Futures? 09:11 Prediction Markets and the 'Economic Purpose' Test 11:07 The ErisX Sports Betting Precedent 13:07 The Hurricane Hedging Counterargument 15:02 Why Crypto Couldn't 'Come In and Register' Before 17:28 Gary Gensler Is Back 20:27 Person of the Week: Jamie McDonald

Canada is getting its first legal prediction markets app as Wealthsimple teams up with Kalshi, blurring the line between investing and gambling. Then, Apple warns iPhones could be headed toward the $2,000 mark as AI-fueled chip costs spike. Plus, in The Big Picture: the U.S. and Iran sign a deal to end the war, Empire doubles down on discount grocers, and Cohere locks in more Canadian compute from Bell.The Peak Daily is produced in partnership with reframevid.com

Asaf Meir, CEO of Solidus Labs, says a major global soccer tournament will test prediction markets at an unprecedented scale. He highlights the need for advanced surveillance as risks of market abuse and insider activity rise. Meir also notes that new asset classes, global participation, and always-on trading require a different approach to market integrity.======== Schwab Network ========Empowering every investor and trader, every market day.Subscribe to the Market Minute newsletter - https://schwabnetwork.com/subscribeDownload the iOS app - https://apps.apple.com/us/app/schwab-network/id1460719185Download the Amazon Fire Tv App - https://www.amazon.com/TD-Ameritrade-Network/dp/B07KRD76C7Watch on Sling - https://watch.sling.com/1/asset/191928615bd8d47686f94682aefaa007/watchWatch on Vizio - https://www.vizio.com/en/watchfreeplus-exploreWatch on DistroTV - https://www.distro.tv/live/schwab-network/Follow us on X – https://twitter.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/schwabnetworkFollow us on LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/company/schwab-network/About Schwab Network - https://schwabnetwork.com/about

History on home soil? Canada's men's soccer team steps onto the pitch at Vancouver's BC Place tonight, chasing a historic milestone: their first-ever World Cup victory.Also: The 60-day counter has started for the ceasefire between Iran and the U.S. The next step: formal negotiations in Switzerland. In the meantime, ships are on the move in the Strait of Hormuz, and U.S. President Donald Trump is declaring victory — for now. What's not clear: what it all means for Israel and its fight with Hezbollah in Lebanon.And: How much would you wager on being able to guess tomorrow's temperature? A Toronto-based financial services company is betting the answer is… a lot. Canadians have had limited access to prediction markets that are raising billions in the U.S. and elsewhere. That's about to change.Plus: FIFA hydration breaks, Ukraine strikes Russia , AI costs, and more.

In this episode, SBC Media Director Martyn Elliott is joined by industry experts Alex Kane (CEO and founder of Sporttrade), David Aron (Financial markets lawyer at Lowenstein Sandler), and Ian McGinley (Partner at Sidley Austin LLP). Together, they discuss the rise of prediction markets, navigating regulatory challenges, and the long-term impact on betting and trading platforms. They also explore how these markets became mainstream and what future regulatory developments could mean for the industry.Key Topics:Prediction markets' mainstream adoptionRegulatory landscape and legal challengesImpact of CFTC and Congress on prediction marketsDraftKings' strategy and prediction marketsMarket maker and exchange models in betting platformsHost: Martyn ElliottGuests: Alex Kane, David Aron & Ian McGinleyProducer: Anaya McDonaldEditor: Anaya McDonaldLearn how Optimove's Positionless Marketing is changing how iGaming teams operate. Discover how operators are using Optimove's Positionless Marketing Platform to launch personalised CRM campaigns, dynamically change casino lobbies and bet slips, and create engaging gamified experiences. Learn more at optimove.com.Finally, remember to check out Optimove at https://hubs.la/Q02gLC5L0 or go to Optimove.com/sbc to get your first month free when buying the industry's leading customer-loyalty service. 

Steve Fezzik & Ross break down everything you need to know about prediction markets! Plus Steve gives his approach to betting on the 2026 World Cup. Download the DraftKings Sports Book App and use code ROSS Connect with the Pod Website - https://www.rosstucker.com Become A Patron - https://www.patreon.com/RTMedia Podcast Twitter - https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod Podcast Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/rosstuckerpod/ Ross Twitter - https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL Ross Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/rosstuckernfl/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Steve Fezzik & Ross break down everything you need to know about prediction markets! Plus Steve gives his approach to betting on the 2026 World Cup. Download the DraftKings Sports Book App and use code ROSS Connect with the Pod Website - https://www.rosstucker.com Become A Patron - https://www.patreon.com/RTMedia Podcast Twitter - https://twitter.com/RossTuckerPod Podcast Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/rosstuckerpod/ Ross Twitter - https://twitter.com/RossTuckerNFL Ross Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/rosstuckernfl/ Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Chris Giancarlo, former CFTC Chairman, author of Crypto Dad: The Fight for the Future of Money, and Senior Strategic Advisor at Patomak Global Partners, joined me to discuss the latest developments in crypto in the U.S.Topics: - Clarity Act and crypto legislation - CFTC & SEC rulemaking - Prediction markets - TradFi embracing Crypto - Stablecoins vs CBDC privacy Brought to you by

A Google engineer and member of special forces have been arrested for placing illegal bets on prediction markets. And these are just examples of the insider trading that may shape more than the country's finances. *** Thank you for listening. Help power On Point by making a donation here: wbur.org/giveonpoint

Prediction markets, while obviously imperfect, still work well because people voluntarily put their money where their beliefs are. Naturally, the government wants to shut them down.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/fear-signal-why-state-urgently-wants-bind-prediction-markets

Prediction markets, while obviously imperfect, still work well because people voluntarily put their money where their beliefs are. Naturally, the government wants to shut them down.Original article: https://mises.org/mises-wire/fear-signal-why-state-urgently-wants-bind-prediction-markets

Any donation is greatly appreciated! 47e6GvjL4in5Zy5vVHMb9PQtGXQAcFvWSCQn2fuwDYZoZRk3oFjefr51WBNDGG9EjF1YDavg7pwGDFSAVWC5K42CBcLLv5U OR DONATE HERE: https://www.monerotalk.live/donate TODAY'S SHOW: Douglas Tuman speaks with Paul Sztorc of LayerTwo Labs about the current state of Bitcoin, the future of sidechains, privacy technologies, Monero's growing real-world relevance, and his efforts to launch a new Bitcoin fork featuring native sidechain functionality. The discussion explores Bitcoin maximalism, network effects, privacy tradeoffs, Zcash vs. Monero, decentralized naming systems, and whether Bitcoin's culture is preventing meaningful innovation. TIMESTAMPS: (00:00:00) Introduction, Sponsors & Pre-Show Discussion (00:08:41) Paul's Bitcoin Origins, Silk Road & Discovering Crypto (00:17:06) Drivechains Explained & Why Paul Is Forking Bitcoin (00:31:32) One Coin vs. Many Coins, Network Effects & Privacy (00:43:10) Bitcoin Culture, Maximalism & Why BTC May Be Stagnating (00:57:36) Monero vs. Zcash, Privacy Adoption & Real-World Usage (01:06:59) Namecoin, BitNames & Decentralized Identity Systems (01:17:11) Prediction Markets, Stablecoins & Future Sidechains (01:26:31) Launch Plans for eCash/ZSide & Adoption Challenges (01:38:13) Closing Thoughts & Final Remarks GUEST LINKS: https://x.com/Truthcoin Purchase Cafe & tip the farmers w/ XMR! https://gratuitas.org/ SPONSORS: Cakewallet.com, the first open-source Monero wallet for iOS. You can even exchange between XMR, BTC, LTC & more in the app! Monero.com by Cake Wallet - ONLY Monero wallet (https://monero.com/) StealthEX, an instant exchange. Go to (https://stealthex.io) to instantly exchange between Monero and 450 plus assets, w/o having to create an account or register & with no limits. WEBSITE: https://www.monerotopia.com CONTACT: monerotalk@protonmail.com ODYSEE: https://odysee.com/@MoneroTalk:8 TWITTER: https://twitter.com/monerotalk FACEBOOK: https://www.facebook.com/MoneroTalk HOST: https://twitter.com/douglastuman INSTAGRAM: https://www.instagram.com/monerotalk TELEGRAM: https://t.me/monerotopia MATRIX: https://matrix.to/#/%23monerotopia%3Amonero.social MASTODON: @Monerotalk@mastodon.social MONERO.TOWN: https://monero.town/u/monerotalkAny donation is greatly appreciated!Any donation is greatly appreciated!

This episode explores the evolving landscape of prediction markets in the gaming industry, focusing on regulatory challenges, regional differences, and future prospects. Experts discuss recent developments in Latin America and the US, highlighting the importance of regulation, legal debates, and industry trends.Key TopicsRegulatory challenges for prediction marketsRegional differences in regulation (Latin America vs US)Future prospects and industry trendsHost: Fernando NoodtGuests: Lucia Gando & Justin ByersProducer: Anaya McDonaldEditor: Anaya McDonaldLearn how Optimove's Positionless Marketing is changing how iGaming teams operate. Discover how operators are using Optimove's Positionless Marketing Platform to launch personalised CRM campaigns, dynamically change casino lobbies and bet slips, and create engaging gamified experiences. Learn more at optimove.com.Finally, remember to check out Optimove at https://hubs.la/Q02gLC5L0 or go to Optimove.com/sbc to get your first month free when buying the industry's leading customer-loyalty service. 

A.M. Edition for June 10. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission is set to propose new rules for booming prediction markets in an effort to crack down on manipulation and bets regulators determine aren't in the public interest. WSJ reporter Alexander Osipovich discusses where the CFTC is likely to draw the line – allowing most sports betting while targeting wagers on war, terrorism and assassinations. Plus, Democrat Graham Platner coasts to victory in Maine, teeing up a crucial Senate contest against Susan Collins in November. And GM follows Ford with a pivot into energy storage. Luke Vargas hosts. Sign up for the WSJ's free What's News newsletter. Correction: A previous version of this podcast incorrectly said the Senate had included funding for an anti-weaponization fund in the immigration bill that passed last week. In fact, the Senate bill refrained from adding language to kill the fund. (Corrected on June 10) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Plus: an anti-Nvidia data center startup closed a new funding round valuing it at $1.55 billion dollars. And the AI selloff hits more chipmakers in Asia. Danny Lewis hosts. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Stocks under pressure as investors prepare for the SpaceX IPO, which is shaping up to be an historic liquidity event. The names that could see the most selling, plus a former derivatives trader on how to hedge any current SpaceX exposure. The CFTC's proposed new rules for prediction markets could mean major changes for sports betting. And speaking of sports, CNBC's Alex Sherman breaks down the big numbers behind the Knicks ahead of Game Four.    Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This week, CFTC Chair Michael Selig joins the show to discuss the CFTC's recent policy announcement on perps in the U.S. We deep dive into how to regulate crypto in the U.S, prediction markets, 24/7 markets, working with the SEC and more. Enjoy! -- Follow Michael: https://x.com/MichaelSelig Follow Rob: https://x.com/HadickM Follow Empire: https://x.com/theempirepod -- Robots will soon outnumber humans onchain. peaqOS turns them into a new trusted liquid asset class, with yield tied to real-world workloads. It gives robots all they need to do business on any chain — and lets humans earn from automation. Explore the Machine Economy: https://peaq.xyz -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (04:20) Working With The SEC (08:40) Bringing Perps To The U.S (19:03) peaq Ad (19:49) How To Regulate DeFi? (26:08) Becoming The Crypto Capital of The World (29:10) Prediction Markets (45:28) 24/7 Capital Markets (56:39) The Clarity Act (01:00:14) Final Thoughts -- Disclaimer: Nothing said on Empire is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are solely our opinions, not financial advice. Santiago, Jason, Rob and our guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

In this episode of the Crazy Wisdom Podcast, host Stewart Alsop sits down with software engineer and entrepreneur Arowolo Muritadhor for a wide-ranging conversation that moves from agriculture and manufacturing in Nigeria to the evolving role of crypto in the country's economy. They touch on how hyperinflation, particularly the naira's dramatic drop in 2023, pushed Nigerians toward stablecoins as a practical savings tool, and how informal kiosk networks have stepped in where traditional banking infrastructure falls short. The conversation also covers the tension between government regulation and the permissionless nature of blockchain technology, comparisons between the decline of the Roman Empire and current shifts in US economic dominance, the role of mobile payments in Africa, language learning, and whether AI agents have any real utility in crypto infrastructure yet. You can connect with Arowolo on LinkedIn and X at @armolas_06.Timestamps00:00 - Host welcomes Arowolo Muritadhor, introducing topics of software engineering and animal food production in Nigeria.05:00 - Discussion shifts to manufacturing, components assembly, and China's dominance in low-cost production globally.10:00 - Conversation explores crypto adoption in Nigeria as a network state phenomenon, separating informed users from mainstream population.15:00 - Mobile payments and kiosk ATM replacements emerge as critical financial infrastructure bridging unbanked Nigerians.20:00 - Roman Empire parallels drawn to modern crypto taxation, government control, and inevitable death-and-taxes reality.25:00 - Bitcoin and Ethereum permissionless nature debated against government wallet-level censorship vulnerabilities.30:00 - AI agents examined as crypto infrastructure tools, revealing mostly trading bots rather than foundational builders.35:00 - Nigeria's 2023 naira collapse compared to Argentina's hyperinflation, driving citizens toward stablecoin dollar savings.40:00 - US Treasury history unpacked through FDR gold confiscation and Nixon ending convertibility, paralleling empire decline.45:00 - Crypto reframed as anti-bank rather than purely anti-government, enabling freedom through immutable accountability.50:00 - Transparent blockchain ledgers discussed as potential government accountability tools across democracy, republic, and oligarchy structures.Key Insights1. Nigeria has a significant divide between its northern and southern regions in terms of economic activity. The north, centered around Abuja, is more agricultural with substantial cattle production, while Lagos in the south functions as a dense urban and commercial hub. This geographic and economic split shapes how different financial tools and technologies are adopted across the country.2. China's dominance in low-cost manufacturing has made it nearly impossible for countries like Nigeria, the United States, or Argentina to compete on price alone. The more realistic path for developing economies is to import components and focus on local assembly and creativity, which is where meaningful economic participation becomes possible.3. Crypto adoption in Nigeria accelerated dramatically around 2023 when the naira experienced a sharp devaluation against the US dollar. Before that point, saving in dollars was difficult for many Nigerians, especially those without formal bank accounts, making stablecoins like USDT an attractive and practical alternative for preserving wealth.4. Informal kiosk operators in Nigeria have organically become a substitute for ATMs, giving communities access to basic financial services where traditional banking infrastructure does not reach. This grassroots financial layer is now a key entry point for integrating crypto and stablecoin payments into everyday commerce.5. Governments are increasingly trying to regulate crypto at the wallet and centralized exchange level, using tax compliance as a primary mechanism. While Bitcoin and Ethereum remain largely permissionless, the practical chokepoints for most users remain centralized platforms where identity and transactions can be monitored.6. The historical parallel between the fall of the Roman Empire and current shifts in US economic and geopolitical power offers a useful frame for understanding why crypto matters. Just as Rome debased its currency and struggled to sustain imperial costs, the US faces mounting debt and a financialized economy that may accelerate dollar instability and push more people toward alternative stores of value.7. One genuinely constructive use case for blockchain beyond speculation is immutable accountability, particularly for public institutions and prediction markets. A transparent ledger that governments or officials voluntarily adopt could create verifiable records of decisions and promises, reducing corruption and increasing trust in ways that traditional governance structures have struggled to achieve.

Steve Sosnick on the ratchet effect in equities, the AI bandwidth parallel, Kevin Warsh's impossible first week, and why crypto is the unsexy trade right now. --- Thank you to our sponsor! Coinbase: Get 20% off the first year of your Coinbase One annual plan at coinbase.com/unchained. Heads up! If you haven't yet, be sure to subscribe to Bits + Bips, since the show will migrate there in a few weeks. Follow us on ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Apple Podcasts⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠YouTube⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Spotify⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠X⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Unchained⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and wherever you get your podcasts. ---- Equities are near all-time highs, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge just hit a multi-year peak, Iran ceasefire talks are producing a familiar ratchet effect in markets, and Bitcoin is quietly underperforming tech stocks on a nine-month volatility low. Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, joins Steve Ehrlich to map what's actually driving these unique market dynamics. They cover the two vulnerabilities that could change things, the uncomfortable parallel between today's AI capex and the 1999 bandwidth buildout, what $120 billion in money market inflows says about where retail cash is actually sitting, the challenge Kevin Warsh faces walking into an already-skeptical FOMC, and why crypto is currently losing the competition for momentum-chasing money to AI stocks, upcoming IPOs, and even a memory chip ETF. Host: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Steve Ehrlich, Head of Research at SharpLink and Host of Bits + Bips: The Interview Guest: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Steve Sosnick — Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

CFTC Chairman Mike Selig sits down on the mainstage at Consensus to break down the most consequential regulatory shift in crypto history: a joint SEC-CFTC taxonomy that finally defines what kind of asset everything is, effectively putting the Howey Test to rest. He also makes the case for why prediction markets belong under federal jurisdiction, not state gaming commissions, and why he's already suing multiple states to prove it. Operating as the sole commissioner on a five-member body, Selig is moving fast on rulemaking, AI-powered market surveillance, and cementing the US as the global home for crypto innovation. - Timecodes: 00:00 - CFTC Chairman Mike Selig at Consensus Miami 2026 01:00 - The New Crypto Taxonomy 03:13 - Joint CFTC/SEC Rulemaking and Its Durability 04:34 - Protecting Software Developers 06:53 - Why Prediction Markets Belong With the CFTC 09:13 - Sports Wagers vs Event Contracts Explained 11:33 - State Lawsuits and the Path to the Supreme Court 13:36 - Using AI for Market Surveillance 15:09 - Operating as the Sole Commissioner

SPONSORS: 1) SUPERPOWER: Head to https://superpower.com and use code JULIAN at checkout for $20 off your membership. Unlock your new health intelligence with 100+ biomarkers tested every year. 2) DOSE: Ready to give your liver the support it deserves? Head to https://dosedaily.co/JULIAN or enter JULIAN to get 35% off your first subscription. JOIN PATREON FOR EARLY UNCENSORED EPISODE RELEASES: https://www.patreon.com/JulianDorey CLIPPERS DISCORD: https://discord.gg/8QmWEKJ3BT (***TIMESTAMPS in description below) ~ Louis Ruggiero is an ex gambling addict and Youtuber. FOLLOW LOUIS: YT: https://youtube.com/@nothingsoffthetable IG: https://www.instagram.com/nothingsoffpod TT: https://www.tiktok.com/@nothingsoffpod FOLLOW JULIAN DOREY YT: https://www.instagram.com/julianddorey/ X: https://x.com/juliandorey JULIAN YT CHANNELS - SUBSCRIBE to Julian Dorey Clips YT: https://www.youtube.com/@juliandoreyclips - SUBSCRIBE to Julian Dorey Daily YT: https://www.youtube.com/@JulianDoreyDaily - SUBSCRIBE to Best of JDP: https://www.youtube.com/@bestofJDP ****TIMESTAMPS**** 00:00 - Losing your Innocence and A Decade of Addiction 16:38 - Survivor's Guilt and “The Obsession” 27:58 - Root of Addiction, Jimmy Confesses a Mu*der, and Overdosing 44:17 - Life After Rehab, Confessing Jimmy's Confession 53:58 - Jimmy Gets Locked Up, Losing $50k in Vegas 01:05:31 - Gambling Keeping Louis Afloat, Family Ties, Married in 24 Hours 01:21:11 - Three Month Drug Psychosis in Colombia, Losing $10 Million 01:32:21 - Louis Plotted Suicide Before Thanksgiving, Gambling Lies 01:43:33 - Pressure Relief Group, The Massive Problem w/ Legal Gambling 01:57:39 - Horror of Prediction Markets, “Gambling is a tax on the poor” 02:05:58 - Life After Gambling, Living Without Fear 02:19:38 - Privileged Life, Recovered After Feeling Consequences 02:26:48 - Louis' Work CREDITS: - Host, Editor & Producer: Julian Dorey - COO, Producer & Editor: Alessi Allaman - https://www.youtube.com/@UCyLKzv5fKxGmVQg3cMJJzyQ - In-Studio Producer: Joey Deef - https://www.instagram.com/joeydeef/ Julian Dorey Podcast Episode 431 - Louis Ruggiero Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Prediction markets like Kalshi let you bet on presidential elections, Taylor Swift's engagement, and whether it'll snow in LA this month. Billions in annual trading volume. Near-zero consumer protections. And a younger male demographic growing faster than any other.Craig Perra sits down with Joe Ciccolo -- nationally recognized expert in digital asset regulatory compliance, founder of BitAML, and Executive Director of the California Blockchain Advisory Coalition -- to break down what prediction markets actually are, why they're structurally different from gambling (and why that distinction matters for your protection), and what nobody in the industry wants you to know about the regulatory gap that leaves consumers completely exposed.This is not a fear piece. This is a pattern recognition conversation.What you'll learn:*How prediction markets work and why they're more addictive than traditional betting*The insider trading paradox: why informed trading is literally built into the model*Why the FTC regulates these platforms but has zero consumer protection mandate*How crypto exchanges fusing with prediction markets are eliminating the last friction between you and a compulsive bet*What the industry's own marketing reveals about who they're really targetingIf you recognize yourself in any of this, the Self-Sabotage Assessment at mindfulhabitmastery.com/slst is where to start.Connect with Joe Ciccolo:LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/joeciccolo/Website: https://www.bitaml.com

From election contracts to crypto derivatives, a new generation of markets is raising complex questions about oversight, jurisdiction and investor protection. In this all-new episode of Wide World of Options, former CFTC commissioner Dawn Stump sits down to explore how these products work, who's watching and where the regulatory lines are still being drawn.

Send us Fan MailIn this episode of The Alchemist's Library, Champ breaks down internet money, crypto, prediction markets, online business, personal branding, entrepreneurship, hustle culture, burnout, chronic illness, Miami culture, and the hidden cost of chasing more. What starts as a conversation about travel, Marbella, and getting robbed turns into a deeper look at how Champ went from Tulsa, Oklahoma to building a massive online audience and making serious money on the internet.Champ shares the story behind his early music dreams, software sales job, viral crypto content, $850K Discord launch, and why he believes prediction markets could become the next major online money opportunity. The conversation also gets personal, covering Lyme disease, POTS, mold exposure, health struggles, high-performance pressure, comparison, family, relationships, and the painful realization that money does not automatically create meaning.Subscribe for more conversations on business, health, philosophy, psychology, wealth, culture, and self-mastery.#InternetMoney #PredictionMarkets #EntrepreneurshipTIMESTAMPS00:00 – Why Marbella Changed Champ's View on Travel07:26 – Champ's Origin Story From Tulsa to Online Fame10:22 – How Bullying Pushed Champ Onto the Internet15:14 – How Crypto Turned Into Internet Money18:40 – How Champ Made $850K From a Discord Launch20:18 – Why Prediction Markets Could Be the Next Crypto23:20 – How Prediction Market Arbitrage Works25:29 – Prediction Markets vs Sports Betting Odds30:18 – How AI Agents Are Trading Prediction Markets31:15 – Champ's Battle With Lyme Disease and POTS35:18 – Performing at 40 Percent Capacity39:46 – Why Hustle Culture Can Poison High Performers42:12 – The Problem With Success Built on Fear44:41 – What Gives Life Meaning After Making Money46:23 – Why Internet Fame Didn't Fix Everything47:35 – The Reality of Miami Influencer Culture51:01 – Why Dating in New York Feels Different52:08 – Why Champ Left Brickell MiamiConnect with Us!https://www.instagram.com/alchemists.library/https://twitter.com/RyanJAyala

Circles Off sits down with sharp bettor Thon Misser (@ThonMisser) for a deep dive into how he actually approaches modern betting markets, from live wagering to prediction markets and everything in between. Thon has quietly built a reputation for finding edges in places most bettors ignore — including niche sports like Japanese baseball, reality TV markets, and newer prediction market platforms. In this conversation with Rob Pizzola, he breaks down how he thinks about betting today, where his edge comes from, and why the betting landscape is changing faster than most people realize. We also get into his live betting process, how he structures his week across different sports and markets, and what it really takes to operate at a sharp level in today's environment. Later in the episode, the conversation shifts into prediction markets, insider trading debates, and whether these new formats are going to coexist with or disrupt traditional sportsbooks. This is part of the Circles Off interview series presented by ProphetX, focused on sharp thinking, betting markets, prediction markets, and real process-driven discussion. If you're interested in sports betting, prediction markets, live betting strategy, or how sharp bettors actually think, this episode delivers a rare inside look.

In this episode of the Sports Tech AllStars Podcast, we present Evan Kirkham, CEO and Co-Founder of Outlier.The conversation explores how Outlier is building a data-driven sports betting platform that charges bettors directly rather than taking affiliate fees from sportsbooks, why that single decision shapes everything about the product, and where the $11 million Series A company is heading next - including a data acquisition and a new live betting product.TakeawaysOutlier charges bettors a subscription fee instead of taking affiliate money from sportsbooks - a deliberate choice that keeps the product fully aligned with the userTaking affiliate fees from sportsbooks creates an incentive to funnel users rather than serve them - Outlier refuses to make that trade-offThe platform is essentially a Bloomberg Terminal for sports bettors, taking users from insight to analysis to bet execution in one seamless flow65% to 70% of Outlier's traffic is NBA, with prop bets driving 95 percent of overall usageThe US skipped the betting shop era entirely - everyone came to digital sports betting at the same time, which is why adoption has been so fastThe financialization of sports betting is the defining US trend - bettors will increasingly move in and out of positions like traders, with limit orders and automated executionThe market is bifurcating between serious data-driven bettors and casual fans who just want entertainment - most products are still trying to serve both at onceUK bettors have ingrained behaviors tied to legacy sportsbooks - breaking those habits is the core challenge of international expansionOutlier is acquiring a data technology provider and launching a net new live in-game betting productTo learn more, visit: https://www.outlier.betGet in touch with Evan Kirkham at: linkedin.com/in/evan-kirkham-581b1220 Hosted by ⁠Rohn Malhotra⁠ from ⁠SportsTechX⁠ - Leading source of Investment and Innovation insights in sports. As promised, here's your small surprise:Unlock your 30-day growth plan (worth €49) on the SportsTechX Intelligence Hub for free!Simply verify your company details and you get access to 1,500+ investors, programmes, initiatives and events in the sportstech ecosystem.Here's how to get set up and if you'd like a walkthrough of the platform, feel free to book a call here.More from SportsTechX:Explore the SportsTechX Intelligence Hub, an interactive database of over 8,000 sports tech companies, 8,000+ deals, 1,000+ investors, programs and events - HEREDownload the latest Global Sports Tech Ecosystem Report - HERESign Up for the Sports Tech Weekly Newsletter for more news, features & insights on Sports Tech - HERE Stay Connected and follow for more:LinkedInYouTubeSpotifyApple PodcastChapters00:00 Introduction02:59 What Outlier Is and Why It Calls Itself a Bloomberg Terminal for Sports03:28 Is Outlier for Casual Bettors or Serious Ones?04:08 The Match.com Model - Building a Suite of Data Products05:14 The Origin Story05:51 Game Lines vs Prop Bets08:40 Why Outlier Charges Subscribers Instead of Taking Sportsbook Affiliate Fees10:13 Subscription as the Core Business Model 12:10 Why Affiliate Models Serve the Sportsbook, Not the Bettor13:18 100,000 Monthly Active Users and the NBA Dominance13:48 Expanding Into Soccer and International Markets 16:00 Why the US Adopted Sports Betting So Fast Compared to Europe17:57 The Learned Behavior Problem in UK Betting Markets19:47 The Stale UK Market and the Opportunity for a Fresh Product21:13 The Financialization of Sports Betting23:20 The Bifurcation of Sports Betting: Serious vs Fun24:11 Prediction Markets, Cultural Betting and Responsible Gambling in Europe25:03 Betting as a Shared Entertainment Experience26:38 Why Sportsbooks Are Missing the Fun Segment Entirely27:12 What Is Next: Series A, CMO Hire, Data Acquisition and Live Betting Product29:18 Favourite Sporting Moment

In Washington, D.C., U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stops by the Squawk set to discuss trade and tariff strategy. Shortly after news broke of a potential tariff on Brazil, Ambassador Greer references his office's investigations into unfair trade practices. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is in DC as well, addressing his own role in regulating prediction markets. In corporate news, Anthropic is going public, Google plans to raise $80 billion to fund its AI build-out, short-seller Andrew Left was found guilty of securities fraud, and Senator Bernie Sanders has a pitch for national AI ownership: the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act.    Dan Murphy - 15:37 Jamieson Greer - 20:09 Michael Selig - 29:48   In this episode: Michael Selig, @ChairmanSelig Dan Murphy, @dan_murphy Joe Kernen, @JoeSquawk Becky Quick, @BeckyQuick Andrew Ross Sorkin, @andrewrsorkin Cameron Costa, @CameronCostaNY Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), and Stellar announced plans to enable tokenization of custodied assets on the Stellar network. MoneyGram today announced the launch of MGUSD, a native U.S. dollar stablecoin and the foundation for a growing suite of financial services across its global network. ~This episode is sponsored by Tangem~ Tangem ➜ https://bit.ly/TangemPBN Use Code: "PBN" for Additional Discounts! Guest: Denelle Dixon, CEO & Executive Director at Stellar Development Foundation Stellar Learn More ➜https://bit.ly/StellarXLMwebsite 00:10 Sponsor: Tangem 01:00 Moneygram launching stablecoin on Stellar 02:40 Expectations 03:30 Canton disbelief 05:30 What will be the limitations?  06:15 Why 24/5? 07:30 Institutions care about distribution 09:45 Bridges to access DeFi apps like Morpho? 12:00 When will this happen? 01:00 Next 2 years 14:40 BENJI 5-Year performance 15:40 RWA value in 12months? 17:00 Why hasn't USDC or PayPalUSD taken off on Stellar? 18:30 Is “Privacy” misleading? 19:40 KYC for everyone? 24:15 CLARITY Act odds & unlock 25:10 Perps & Prediction Markets on Stellar? 25:40 POS System: Toast partnership? 28:30 Customer confidence timeline? #Crypto #XLM #ethereum ~Two Massive Stellar Partnerships!

The CEO of Kalshi joins to discuss the company's latest product announcements and the regulatory environment for prediction markets. Then, Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper helps break down the latest headlines on the war with Iran. We also speak with the CEO of D-Wave Quantum following the U.S. government's recent investment in quantum companies. Plus, the CEO of Revolution Medicines joins to discuss the company's pancreatic cancer drug that nearly doubled survival rates.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ann Berry is joined by Alan Ellingson, CFO of DraftKings, to discuss how the company is navigating the rising popularity of prediction markets, its new “Super App” designed to let users seamlessly operate across jurisdictions, and how DraftKings is working to maintain integrity in sports betting. 00:00 Alan Ellingson, CFO of DraftKings, Joins00:38 Q1 earnings highlights: revenue, EBITDA, and profitability01:25 Prediction markets: threat or opportunity?02:53 Cannibalization concern: what the data actually shows03:34 Why sportsbook users aren't switching to prediction markets05:26 Prediction market regulation: CFTC rulemaking and legislative bans06:38 Market integrity: fighting insider trading and gaming the system07:58 The Super App: from seven apps to one unified platform09:33 Super App expansion: lotteries, horse racing, and what's next10:06 Could DraftKings move into stock trading?11:08 Rail Bird acquisition: building a prediction market exchange12:07 Ad break: KeyBank12:38 ESPN, NBC, and Amazon: the content partnership strategy14:19 What exclusive broadcast deals actually do for the bottom line15:06 League partnerships vs. broadcast deals: a disciplined approach16:14 State tax hikes: the regulatory landscape17:21 Black market competition: offshore sportsbooks and the tax disadvantage19:26 Cost-cutting and margin defense20:07 Path to 30% EBITDA margins21:26 Breaking down the balance sheet22:23 Prediction markets as a billion-dollar TAM opportunity22:43 Outro and upcoming episodes After Earnings is brought to you by Stakeholder Labs and Morning Brew. For more go to https://www.afterearnings.com Follow Us X: https://twitter.com/AfterEarningsTikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@AfterEarningsInstagram: https://www.instagram.com/afterearnings_/ Reach Out Email: afterearnings@morningbrew.com $DKNG Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The rapid rise of prediction markets is prompting questions about their influence on politics, military operations and the way we consume news. We discuss with guests including PredictIt founder John Aristotle Phillips. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

CoinDesk's The Policy Protocol hosts Rebecca Rettig and Renato Mariotti dig into the New York Times investigation of the CFTC and Kalshi's latest lawsuit against Minnesota before sitting down with Aaron Klein, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. Klein argues that independent financial regulators have been turned into "subsidiaries of the White House," warns that the CFTC is not structurally up to the jurisdiction CLARITY would hand it, and makes the case that the SEC and CFTC should be merged. He also unpacks lessons from Dodd-Frank and the savings-and-loan crisis. Plus, Rebecca and Renato debrief on the CFTC staffing debate and name House Agriculture Chairman GT Thompson and Ranking Member Angie Craig as their People of the Week for their bipartisan push to fill out the CFTC commission. - Timecodes: 00:00 Welcome to The Policy Protocol 00:43 All Roads Lead to the CFTC 01:22 Unpacking the NYT's CFTC Investigation 02:41 Pendulum Swing: Reading the NYT in Context 05:11 Why the CFTC Needs Funding and Personnel 06:52 Aaron Klein Joins the Show 07:30 The History of the CFTC and the Great Salad Oil Swindle 08:10 Independent Regulators as White House Subsidiaries 09:39 Dodd-Frank Lessons for the CLARITY Era 11:47 The Case for Merging the SEC and CFTC 13:21 PolyMarket, Soft on Financial Crime, and CZ/Binance 15:06 SEC-CFTC Office Sharing and the Value of MOUs 18:16 Renato and Rebecca Debrief on the CFTC's Future 21:45 Trump on Prediction Markets and Expanded Jurisdiction 22:30 People of the Week: GT Thompson and Angie Craig 24:26 Tribute to Ondo CEO Nathan Allman 25:01 Closing Thoughts and Sign-Off

Altcoins have lost the plot with Scott Melker. In today's Markets Outlook, Scott Melker, Host of Wolf of All Streets, tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why altcoins have lost the plot, what's really driving the weird market we're all feeling, and why Bitcoin is still the only bet he's making long-term. Plus: are prediction markets, tokenized equities, and "private Bitcoin" just hype? - Timecodes: 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight?  06:08 - Scott's Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino  13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

Altcoins have lost the plot with Scott Melker. In today's Markets Outlook, Scott Melker, Host of Wolf of All Streets, tells CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie why altcoins have lost the plot, what's really driving the weird market we're all feeling, and why Bitcoin is still the only bet he's making long-term. Plus: are prediction markets, tokenized equities, and "private Bitcoin" just hype? - Timecodes: 00:00 - Scott Melker Joins Markets Outlook 01:38 - Why Bitcoin Is Underrated 03:59 - Is Crypto Recreating the System It Was Built to Fight?  06:08 - Scott's Bitcoin Origin Story 08:04 - Why This Market Feels Impossible to Read 10:07 - How Prediction Markets Killed the Altcoin Casino  13:33 - Teaching His Kids About Bitcoin and AI in a Complicated World 16:22 - AI Tokens and Zcash Outlook 18:33 - Zcash as Privacy Bitcoin: “It Makes Me Want to Puke” 19:46 - Scott's Bitcoin Price Outlook for the Rest of the Year - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie.

We just hit a massive 1000% one-day profit position in the political prediction markets! In this episode of Predictable with Stu Burguiere, we break down how the Ken Paxton race in Texas created an incredible value opportunity and how we capitalized on it. If you are looking to understand the mechanics behind political betting, election forecast modeling, and finding massive inefficiencies in the markets, this deep dive is for you. We look at the data, the shifting political landscape in Texas, and where the next big market opportunities are hiding. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

President Trump defends the CFTC's authority over prediction markets. President Trump defended the CFTC's exclusive authority over prediction markets in a Truth Social post, calling state officials trying to regulate them "scum." His attack targeted Chris Christie, Letitia James, Tim Walz, and JB Pritzker — all of whom have moved against prediction market platforms in their states. CoinDesk's Jennifer Sanasie hosts "CoinDesk Daily." - This episode was hosted by Jennifer Sanasie. “CoinDesk Daily” is produced by Jennifer Sanasie and edited by Victor Chen.

This week, Michelle, Rahul and Will explore prediction markets — online platforms where people can bet on future events, from elections to pop culture and even world conflicts.Concerns about insider trading are on the rise and platforms are being banned in an increasing number of countries. So as talk of regulation increases, we try to predict the future of the prediction market.Presenters: Michelle Fleury, Rahul Tandon and Will BainProducer: Rebecca Smyllie(Photo: Getty/Yuichiro Chino)

Former CFTC and SEC Chair Gary Gensler joins to discuss regulation of prediction markets after President Trump said the CFTC should have "exclusive authority" over them. We also discuss Lululemon agreeing to two board nominees in the company's settlement with its founder, Chip Wilson. Plus, we take a look at Zscaler's latest quarter which has the stock sinking this morning.   Squawk on the Street Disclaimer Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Krystal and Saagar discuss Trump goes to war for prediction markets, Hasan Piker reportedly subpoenaed by feds over Cuba trip. Professor Marandi: https://x.com/s_m_marandi?s=20 To become a Breaking Points Premium Member and watch/listen to the show AD FREE, uncut and 1 hour early visit: www.breakingpoints.com Merch Store: https://shop.breakingpoints.com/ See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Theo Jaffee and Sophia Puccini speak with economist Robin Hanson about prediction markets, gambling, and why he believes speculative markets are one of the most powerful tools humans have for aggregating information and forecasting outcomes. The conversation begins with Minnesota's recent law criminalizing prediction markets before expanding into the broader backlash surrounding platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Hanson explains his long-term vision for “decision markets,” where markets could help guide choices made by companies, governments, and even individuals. Along the way, they discuss sports betting, games and human psychology, futurism, AI, and Hanson's broader work on how societies misunderstand risk, incentives, and coordination Resources: Follow Robin Hanson on X: https://x.com/robinhanson Follow Theo Jaffee on X: https://x.com/theojaffee Follow Sophia Puccini on X: https://x.com/schisofrenia Stay Updated:Find a16z on YouTube: YouTubeFind a16z on XFind a16z on LinkedInListen to the a16z Show on SpotifyListen to the a16z Show on Apple PodcastsFollow our host: https://twitter.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The new Fed chair Kevin Warsh, like Kevin McAllister in Home Alone, faces a lonely vigil: survive until the adults get home again. The latest on inflation, rising Treasury yields, shrinking equity risk premia and pressure from the White House. Also: investing in China's home-grown AI ecosystem, and the predation in prediction markets. Watch the video

Prediction market sites allow users to put money on everything from the war in Iran to the winner of the Super Bowl. But where did these markets come from? And what can that history tell us about where they might be going? Today on the show, how betting on popes and presidents long ago planted a seed for a “terrorism market” in the early 2000s, and how those early prediction markets shaped the industry that has taken hold today.Guests:Koleman Strumpf, economics professor at Wake Forest UniversityPaul Rhode, economic historian at the University of Michigan.Robin Hanson, Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and systems architect for the Policy Analysis MarketRobert Forsythe, Professor of Finance at Wayne State University and co-founder of the Iowa Political Stock MarketTo access bonus episodes and listen to Throughline sponsor-free, subscribe to Throughline+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org/throughline.See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

Adam Levitan takes a deep dive into the expanding world of projection markets, gaining insight from those spearheading the market from guests Nigel Eccles, former FanDuel founder and founder of BetDEX and BetHog, Henry Kerins, who serves as the VP of Trading at Novig, and @Sports__Proj, a former DFS Shark turned anonymous Prediction Market While from The Risk Takers Podcast. Timestamps:0:00 - Introduction2:05 - How Prediction Markets Work Compared To Sportsbooks6:32 - Are Prediction Markets Better For Consumers?11:00 - Benefits Beyond The Lack of Limiting17:17 - PMs And States Without Legalized Gambling21:20 - Does Opposing Side Matter In Market Making?25:15 - Marketing For Prediction Markets28:54 - Advice On Market Making For Non-Professionals39:29 - Experts On The Merits Of Taking43:44 - How Retail/Casual Traders Can Gain An Advantage46:32 - The Regulatory Outlook on PMs49:59 - Listener QuestionsWant ETR on your team this season? Our 2026 NFL Best Ball product has you covered with:Real-Time RankingsResearch & Analysis ArticlesDraft Strategy ContentDraft LivestreamsDiscord CommunityQ&As with ETR TeamSubscribe now at https://subscribe.establishtherun.com/nflbestball/DraftKings Best Ball: Draft One, Get OneEnter DraftKings' $20M Best Ball contest for $25 and you'll receive a bonus ticket to play a second Best Ball draft for free. Available to all DraftKings customers.⁠⁠⁠⁠Sign Up Now⁠⁠⁠⁠! ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://dkng.co/ETRBestBall⁠⁠⁠⁠Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 877-8-HOPENY/text HOPENY (467369) (NY). Help is available for problem gambling. Call (888) 789-7777 or visit [⁠⁠⁠⁠ccpg.org⁠⁠⁠⁠](⁠⁠⁠⁠http://ccpg.org⁠⁠⁠⁠) (CT).18+ in most eligible states, but age varies by jurisdiction. Eligibility restrictions apply. Void where prohibited. 1 per customer. Must enter a lineup into the NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. $25 entry fee. Bonus issued as 1 ticket to NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is site credit valid for use only on NFL Best Ball $20M Headliner Contest. Ticket reward is single-use and expires at contest lock on 9/9/26. See terms at⁠⁠⁠⁠ https://www.draftkings.com/promotions⁠⁠⁠⁠. Ends 9/9/26 at contest lock. Sponsored by DraftKings.FREE NEWSLETTER: Tired of attention-seeking hot takes? Get the highest-quality fantasy football analysis in your inbox, FREE: https://establishtherun.kit.com/emailDFS OPTIMIZER: Sign up for THE SOLVER for access to the software we think fantasy players need to win: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://thesolver.com/?ref=etr⁠⁠⁠⁠SPORTSBOOK OFFERS: We've partnered with several major sportsbook outlets to help supply you with the best offers in the industry and ensure you're maximizing your bankroll from the start: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://establishtherun.com/offers/⁠⁠⁠⁠FOLLOW US: Check out our social media channels for FREE fantasy football & DFS videos, analysis, and more: ⁠⁠⁠⁠https://linktr.ee/establishtherun⁠

It's the Wild West of online betting. Prediction markets have been plagued by insider trading allegations, ethical questions and even national security concerns. Today on the show, what are sites like Polymarket doing to self-police, and what other regulations might be necessary? We talk to one U.S. senator with some ideas. The Indicator has a weekly newsletter! Sign up now: npr.org/indicatornewsletter Related:  Is anyone gonna do anything about these Iran War trades?  Do prediction market bettors make anything better?  Polymarket bots, lithium found: lots!, marathon shoe thoughts  For sponsor-free episodes of The Indicator from Planet Money, subscribe to Planet Money+ via Apple Podcasts or at plus.npr.org. Fact-checking by Sierra Juarez. Music by Drop Electric. Find us: TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, Newsletter.  See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for sponsorship and to manage your podcast sponsorship preferences.NPR Privacy Policy

On today's Predictable with Stu Burguiere, Stu breaks down the redistricting wars erupting across America and explains why the market reaction may already be going too far. Republicans are gaining structural advantages in key House maps, but are traders mispricing it before the dust has even settled? Stu walks through the Virginia court decision he saw coming, the shifting House outlook, and the key price levels where he may look to re-enter Democratic House positions after the recent selloff. Plus, we do a 2028 presidential market draft featuring top market options to be on the lookout for as 2028 chatter continues. Stu explains the difference between candidates who can actually win and candidates whose prices can still surge long before Election Day. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices