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2024 is a huge year for elections, with more than 60 countries holding national elections and over half the world's population voting. With each election it can seem like opinion polls dominate the coverage but how are these polls carried out? We speak to pollster and data analyst David Byler from the American non-partisan polling company Noble Predictive Insights about how it all works.We also hear from the BBC's North America correspondent Anthony Zurcher, who explains how significant the polls are in the 2024 US Presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Historically there have been lots of poll prediction fails. BBC journalist Rupsha Mukherjee in Delhi tells us about how some important polls got it wrong in India's general election this year. And Niko Kelbakiani, a journalist at BBC Monitoring, explains the role opinion polls play in Iran's elections - where the Guardian Council must approve every candidate.Instagram: @bbcwhatintheworld WhatsApp: +44 0330 12 33 22 6 Email: whatintheworld@bbc.co.uk Presenter: William Lee Adams Producers: Julia Ross-Roy, Benita Barden and Hayley Clarke Editor: Verity Wilde
The untimely death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on the 19th of May has many implications not just for Iran but the region as a whole. Along with him, Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian also perished in the crash. As Iran goes to the polls on the 28th of June to elect a new President, all eyes will be on the country's Guardian Council that has the power to decide which candidates get to contest. There is also speculation in the Western press about who might replace Supreme Leader Ali Khamanei. So, what is Raisi's legacy on the domestic and international front? How will Iran deal with the many challenges that it faces in the region especially as it claims to be a bulwark against Israeli aggressionin Gaza? Will Raisi's tango with Russia and China as well as an opening to Saudi Arabia hold his successors in good stead? Guest: Dinkar Srivastava, former Indian Foreign Service officer, who worked as India's Ambassador to Iran. Host: Amit Baruah, Senior Associate Editor, The Hindu. Edited by Sharmada Venkatasubramanian.
Kate Adie presents stories from Nigeria, Ukraine, Iran, Uzbekistan and Nepal.Nigeria is experiencing its worst economic crisis in a generation, with soaring inflation and a depreciating currency, making many basic food items unaffordable for the majority. Mayeni Jones describes the challenges of daily living in a country where inflation is around 30 per cent.In the eastern Donetsk region of Ukraine, several villages have been captured after Russian forces took control of the town of Avdiivka last month. James Waterhouse has been to cities just behind the front-line as they prepare for what might be coming their wayTurnout in Iran's parliamentary elections last week was at a record low of 41 per cent - though voters had a limited choice, as only candidates approved by the Supreme Leader's Guardian Council could stand. Our correspondent, Caroline Davies, was given rare permission to report from the capital Tehran, where young people explained why they chose not to vote.We travel to Uzbekistan, a Muslim-majority country – but, as we discover, not all visitors are in tune with the country's traditional conservative values. Chris Aslan reports on how religious piety is increasingly being embraced in the country.And, for those climbing Mount Everest, the world's highest peak, it's not just reaching the summit that's taking their breath away. Our Environment Correspondent, Navin Singh Khadka, finds out what's causing a stink. Producer: Sally Abrahams Production Co-ordinator: Sophie Hill Editor: Richard Fenton-Smith
Iranian conservatives have secured a majority in recent elections, but many incumbents were disqualified, leaving only loyalist candidates vetted by the Guardian Council to participate. With predictable outcomes and key figures like former President Rouhani disqualified from standing again for the Assembly of Experts, are these elections then a farce? Ali Khamenei's second son, Mojtaba Khamenei, is expected to succeed as Iran's supreme leader. Several elite reformists believe he could be the next radical moderniser. Will he? Our host Anna Priyadarshini and foreign affairs editor at India Today, TV Today Network Geeta Mohan discuss in this episode of Geeta's World! Listen in! Produced by Anna Priyadarshini Sound Mix by Sachin Dwivedi
Featured Speakers: Dr. Dania Thafer, Dr. Ayad Allawi, Dr. Abdulla Baabood, Dr. Naser Alsane, Sara Allawi, Dr. Khalid Al-Jaber, and Dr. Daniel Tavana. Every nation in the Gulf has established a legislative or consultative body to form the country's legislation or help the leadership receive popular input. Some of these bodies, which vary widely in scope and authority across the Gulf states, have historically been more attuned to public opinion. For this reason, they have often been incubators for dissent and vehicles for political and social change. Traditional Gulf leaders, seeking to preserve their power have sought to constrain parliaments' authority. Some constraints are explicit, such as vetting candidates by ideology or political loyalty, limiting voting rights, supporting friendly candidates, or using state power to harass opposition candidates. Moreover, even when parliaments have de jure legislative authority, societal norms often restrict their roles. Despite their differences, Gulf parliaments have consistently opposed attempts by executive authorities to challenge their roles and authority. Some parliaments have been more successful at resistance than others. In Kuwait and Iraq, the parliaments have remained relatively powerful, but also face increasing anger from their constituents for their inability to meet demands to solve economic and social problems. Although earlier Iranian parliaments had more leeway to operate, the Guardian Council's strict vetting process now explicitly constrains the selection of candidates, barring candidates who have reformist agendas. Similar constraints exist in Bahrain, where the government has largely barred opposition candidates from office, keeping the parliament friendly to authorities' interests but limiting its legitimacy in the eyes of the people. What factors explain the success of some parliaments, such as Kuwait's, to maintain their authority, while others, such as Bahrain, were unable to? What future developments in the Gulf states could influence parliaments' authority? What options do weak parliaments have to strengthen themselves? Conversely, what other steps can monarchs or heads of state take to constrain their power? Finally, what outcomes in this contest have the best practical consequences for citizens of the Gulf?
Throughout the season we've interviewed gay men from countries around the world, but all of these countries could easily be argued incredibly supportive of the LGBT community and of LGBT parenting. Not so much the three countries that we are focusing on in this episode The Not-Such-Great-Places-to-be-a-Gay-Dad Episode This season, Daddy Squared has (virtually) flown from country-to-country around the world talking to gay dads and experts about what it's like to be gay and become a gay dad in places like Ireland, South Africa, Argentina, etc., etc. The countries we've covered have had all kinds of important variations in LGBTQ rights, parental rights, laws regarding Surrogacy and IVF, etc., etc. But one thing they all had in common was a basic belief in the right of a gay man to live openly – and have a family. For our season finale, we decided it was time to deal with the rest of the world: the many, many countries where not only is being a gay dad impossible, but homosexuality itself is forbidden or persecuted. For obvious reasons, our guests on this episode could not come to us live from the countries of their origin. Instead, X, Y and Alex joined us representing Taiwan & China, Russia, and Iran, respectively. It's a fascinating and meaningful talk. And yes, we know: Way to end the season on a high note! But actually, having just listened to the episode ourselves, we've realized that the perseverance held by members of the LGBTQ community everywhere in the world is nothing short of miraculous – and ultimately, we shall overcome! China LGBT people in China face legal and social challenges that are not experienced by non-LGBT residents. According to the Constitution of China, same-sex couples are unable to marry or adopt, and households headed by such couples are ineligible for the same legal protections available to heterosexual couples. No anti-discrimination protections exist for LGBT people. Iran Iran's government structure is parliamentary. It has a "democratic" layer with a tripartite separation of powers, above which looms the "theocratic" layer with the Guardian Council and Supreme Leader. LGBT people in the Iran face legal challenges not experienced by non-LGBT residents. While people can legally change their assigned sex, sexual activity between members of the same sex is illegal and can be punishable by up to death. Bottom line: it's scary to be gay in Iran. Russia Russia has long held strongly negative views regarding homosexuality. Although same-sex sexual activity between consenting adults in private was decriminalized in 1993, homosexuality is disapproved of by most Russians, and same-sex couples and households headed by same-sex couples are ineligible for the legal protections. Our Guests Eddie Chen, an entrepreneur born and raised in Taiwan, moved to the United States in 1990 at the age of 16. He graduated from USC then founded a few businesses including a wearable heated clothing company called VENTURE HEAT. With ongoing business in China and some family members in Taiwan; he travels back to Asia frequently. This allows him to stay connected to his heritage and familiar with current social climate. He currently resides in Orange County, California with his loving husband of 5+ years. They welcomed their first son in 2019 through surrogacy in California and they have a second son due in 2021. Dimitry Kostantinov moved to Los Angeles from Russia, and raises his 14-months son, born through surrogacy, with his husband, Casey. Life for LGBT People in China, Iran and Russia: Related Articles Iran's new government leaves country's LGBTQ community hopeless (LA Blade, August 16, 2021)WeChat in China shuts down LGBTQ-related accounts (LA Times, July 7, 2021)'All Discrimination Comes from Ignorance.' Meet the Chinese Ex-Cop Creating a Global LGBTQ+ Community (Time, June 24, 2021)'We're not hiding': Gay and lesbian Russians say a cultural shift is underway (NBC...
Opposition groups view today's vote as an engineered victory for hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. He is one of four candidates who were approved by Iran's influential Guardian Council ahead of the poll. Also in the programme: how Ethiopia is preparing for elections amid internal conflict; and a new study suggests that the elusive coelacanth fish can live up to 100 years - five times longer than previously thought. Photo: A voter in Iran's 2021 presidential elections. Credit: Getty Images
This week we are bringing you a special edition of the programme, where we will be delving into the Iranian election. It's been a rocky lead-up that has left many voters inside the Islamic Republic disillusioned as the Guardian Council has whittled down some 600 candidates to just over a handful. In doing so, the council eliminated a number of prominent Reformists, who might have brought some rivalry to the race. We will be joined by Ali Vaez, who is the Crisis Group's Iran Project Director.
About 600 candidates applied to run for Iran's upcoming elections, but only seven were authorised by Iran's Guardian Council. The council itself was hand-picked by the Supreme Leader, Ali Hamaney. Several prominent reformists including former Parliamentary Speaker Ali Larijani, were disqualified from running. The prominent conservative hardliner Ebrahim Raisi is now the clear favourite to win. Public calls to boycott the poll are raising concerns that voter turnout could be as low as 30%. Guests: Mohammad Marandi Political Analyst and a Professor at Tehran University Golnaz Esfandiari Senior Correspondent for Radio Free Europe Barbara Slavin Author and Director of the Future of Iran Initiative at the Atlantic Council
Seven of the most hardliners candidates have been approved for the Iranian presidential elections. The approval comes from Iran's Guardian Council which is made from a non-elected body of twelve theologians and jurists.
Journalist Séamus Malekafzali joins me to try to get a head start on assessing the state of Iran’s June presidential election, a task that I acknowledge is a bit of a sucker’s game since the Guardian Council hasn’t started rejecting candidates yet. At this point the only thing we know for sure is that term-limited incumbent Hassan Rouhani won’t be sticking around.The lame duck himself at a military event last year (Fars news agency via Wikimedia Commons)But along the way we discuss the current direction of Iranian politics, the increasing politicization of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and check in with a couple of prominent presidential candidates from years past, including once and would-be future President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.Check out Séamus’s writing on Iranian politics and other stories about the Middle East at his Substack newsletter, and also check out his podcast, The Greatest Sin, here or at Spotify and Apple Podcasts.(The episode title refers to the current year on the Iranian calendar, if that wasn’t clear.) This is a public episode. Get access to private episodes at fx.substack.com/subscribe
Offering a reframe of this reality and the forces behind some of the more pernicious events that happen in our world including mass shootings. The post Flashback Podcast: Guardian Council Update #89 ~ still feeling its relevance! appeared first on Jill Renee Feeler.
Next week Iranians go to the polls to elect a new president. But how much of a choice do they really have? All six candidates are men, and all six have been chosen by the unelected Guardian Council. The members of the Council are selected by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has himself never stood for election. So how different are the views of each of the candidates and how much power will the next president have to set a new direction for the country? At a time when the world is looking at Iran following its nuclear deal with the west, Owen Bennett Jones and his guests discuss what difference this presidential election will make. Photo: Woman voting in Iranian parliamentary elections 2016. Credit: Getty Images
Iran's presidential elections take place on June 14, and it is certain that a new leader will replace Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who is constitutionally barred from running for a third term. Of the 700 hopeful candidates who have registered, only a few will be allowed to run by the Guardian Council -- a group of twelve men mostly appointed by the Supreme Leader. What remains uncertain is which candidates will run and how contested this election might be.In 2009, Iran's previous elections were controversial, sparking a Green Revolution and weeks of violent protests. This year, regardless of who is ultimately chosen, Iran's next president will undoubtedly inherit many challenges, ranging from the country's relations with the Syrian regime to its nuclear program to the need to bolster an economy that suffers from 30% inflation and crippling international sanctions.Iran expert Abbas Milani will discuss the election's outcome and what the change in leadership means for the region, the US and the world. Speaker: Abbas Milani, Hamid and Christina Moghadam Director of Iranian Studies, Stanford Universityhttp://www.worldaffairs.org/speakers/profile/abbas-milani.htmlModerator: Charles Frankel, Honorary Consul, Republic of BotswanaLearn more: http://www.worldaffairs.org/events/2013/iranian-presidential-elections.html
The post-election turmoil in Iran has hardened the determination of various sides. Responding to massive opposition protests, the regime and its supporters have cracked down hard, with arrests, beatings, and killings. Despite admissions of some irregularities, Iran’s Guardian Council, and its supreme leader Ayatollah Khameini have tried to close the door to dissent, claiming in part that protests against the election results were being guided from outside the country. And, they have particularly targeted journalists with implicit threats to their safety. As a result, several foreign journalists doing important work have left the country in recent days, monitoring developments from abroad. To examine what has happened on the ground, what is going on now, and how their distance might affect reporting, AMEJA has assembled a panel of journalists who left Iran in the last few days.
The post-election turmoil in Iran has hardened the determination of various sides. Responding to massive opposition protests, the regime and its supporters have cracked down hard, with arrests, beatings, and killings. Despite admissions of some irregularities, Iran’s Guardian Council, and its supreme leader Ayatollah Khameini have tried to close the door to dissent, claiming in part that protests against the election results were being guided from outside the country. And, they have particularly targeted journalists with implicit threats to their safety. As a result, several foreign journalists doing important work have left the country in recent days, monitoring developments from abroad. To examine what has happened on the ground, what is going on now, and how their distance might affect reporting, AMEJA has assembled a panel of journalists who left Iran in the last few days.
Iran goes to the polls on 12 June 2009 to elect a president of that Islamic Republic, and surprisingly the outcome is in some doubt. The ultra-conservative president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is seeking re-election for a second four year term, but the drop in oil prices and the faltering Iranian economy have left him weakened. And the new Obama administration in the United States has put significant pressure on all the presidential candidates to be clear about how they would manage this new era of potential detente between the US and the Muslim world generally, and between the hardline Iranian regime and the "great Satan" specifically. Ali Ansari is professor of Iranian history and Director of the Iranian Institute at the University of St Andrews in Scotland. Via Skype from his home in St Andrews, he describes to Peter Clarke how the political momentum has sidelined the powerful Guardian Council, the economic downturn has changed the social and political dynamics, and the result could be a change of presidency.This podcast is part of the "Inside Story" series.