Podcast appearances and mentions of ali vaez

We won't negotiate under pressure. The words of Iran's top leader after Donald Trump offered to talk about its nuclear programme. The US President threatened war would be the alternative. So, is a nuclear deal with Iran possible? And if so, on what terms? In this episode: Heino Klinck, former U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense. Hamid Reza Gholamzadeh - Director of the House of Diplomacy, a think tank. Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group. Host: James Bays Connect with us:@AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President, to talk about U.S. President Donald Trump's Iran policy. They discuss Trump's return to his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran even as he signals willingness for dealmaking with Tehran. They examine how Iran's leadership views the Trump administration and whether supreme leader Ali Khamenei's dismissive stance on diplomacy with Washington leaves any room for talks. They look at Iran's diminished regional influence, given Israel's hammering of Iran-backed militant groups, including Hizbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, and Syrian president Bashar al-Assad's ouster, and whether its increased vulnerability changes its nuclear calculations. They talk about what maximum pressure might entail this time around and whether European capitals might reinstate UN sanctions on Iran, which they can still do before October as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. Finally, they assess what a diplomatic initiative to revive negotiations between the U.S. and Iran might look like and how regional powers like Saudi Arabia can help.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our recent EU Watchlist commentary “Test Diplomacy with a Weakened Iran” and our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This event, organised by the LSE Middle East Centre and the Department of International Relations, LSE was a discussion around the book 'How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare' by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani and Ali Vaez published by Stanford University Press. Sanctions have enormous consequences. Especially when imposed by a country with the economic influence of the United States, sanctions induce clear shockwaves in both the economy and political culture of the targeted state, and in the everyday lives of citizens. But do economic sanctions induce the behavioural changes intended? Do sanctions work in the way they should? Meet the speakers Narges Bajoghli is Assistant Professor of Middle East Studies at the Johns Hopkins-SAIS, is an award-winning anthropologist, scholar, and filmmaker. Vali Nasr is the Majid Khadduri Professor of International Affairs and Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins-SAIS, and a Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's South Asia Center. Sanam Vakil is the director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House. She was previously the Programme's deputy director and senior research fellow, and led project work on Iran and Gulf Arab dynamics. Steffen Hertog is Associate Professor in Comparative Politics at the London School of Economics. He was previously Kuwait Professor at Sciences Po in Paris, lecturer in Middle East political economy at Durham University and a post-doc at Princeton University.

In Tbilisi, Georgia, voters have come out to protest the results of this weekend's elections, as opposition leaders claim the vote was tainted by Russian interference. Outside observers report "troubling" conditions, citing "pervasive intimidation" of voters inside and outside polling stations. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili is leading the opposition response. She says recognizing the elections "would be tantamount to legitimizing Russia's takeover of Georgia."   Also on today's show: Ali Vaez, Director of Iran Project, International Crisis Group; Bill T. Jones, Choreographer, "Still/Here”; Aaron Reichlin-Melnick, Senior Fellow, American Immigration Council  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard speaks to Crisis Group colleagues Christina Boutros, David Wood, Ali Vaez and Mairav Zonszein about Israel's military campaign in Lebanon, Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel, how Israel might respond and whether the Biden administration can avert an all-out confrontation that would draw the U.S. in. Richard first discusses with David and Christina Israel's bombardment and ground invasion of Lebanon, its humanitarian toll, whether Hezbollah will fight back and what Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah's death could mean for the country's politics and sectarian relations. Richard then talks with Ali about Iran's motives for launching its ballistic missile attack on 1 October against Israel and how it might react to an Israeli strike. Finally, he talks to Mairav about how Israelis view the attack and the opportunities and risks that lie in pressing what appears to be Israel's military advantage in Lebanon and against Iran directly.For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, our alert Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Plus: A look at Iran's strategy and what comes next in the region with Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director with the International Crisis Group. Also: A former friend of JD Vance tells us what to expect as he squares off with Tim Walz; and three Senators say they have a plan to put a dent in Canada's doctor shortage. 

The next stage of Israel's war against Hezbollah will start soon, according to the Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. Israel is currently conducting reconnaissance and other ground raids inside Lebanon. According to the US, Washington says any ground invasion could be more limited than originally thought. Former Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil Fahmy joins the show to discuss the latest developments and what this means for the region.  Also on today's show: Ali Vaez, Director of the Iran Project, International Crisis Group; director Farah Nabulsi and actor Saleh Bakri ("The Teacher"); author Sarah Smarsh ("Bone of the Bone")  Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Roundtable Panel: a daily open discussion of issues in the news and beyond. Today's panelists are public policy and communications expert Theresa Bourgeois and Vice President for Editorial Development at the New York Press Association Judy Patrick. We are also joined by Fariba Pajooh who is originally from Iran, with over 15 years of reporting experience across the globe. Her focus was on Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Currently, Fariba is a qualitative researcher, Ph. D. candidate, and graduate teaching assistant in the Department of Communication at Wayne State University. As well as Ali Vaez who is Crisis Group's Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President. He is an adjunct professor at Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service and a Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is a co-author of "How Sanctions Work: Iran and r=the Impact of Economic Warfare."

Iranians are choosing a successor to the late Ebrahim Raisi. But with the Supreme Leader wielding enormous power, how much difference would a new president make? And how is this vote being viewed, both regionally and globally? In this episode: Hassan Ahmadian, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic Research. Ali Vaez, Project Director on Iran at the International Crisis Group. Sami Nader, Director of the Levant Institute for Strategic Affairs. Host: Sami Zeidan  Connect with us:@AJEPodcasts on Twitter, Instagram, Facebook

In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein and Stephen Pomper to talk about the death of Iran's president Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash and the International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutor's request for arrest warrants for Israeli and Hamas leaders. Richard first speaks to Ali to discuss Raisi's legacy and how his sudden demise might affect Iranian politics, particularly Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei's succession, and its foreign relations. Richard then talks with Mairav and Steve about the announcement by ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan that he was requesting arrest warrants for top Hamas leaders as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Yoav Gallant. They unpack the reaction to the announcement in Israel and the U.S. and its possible impact on the war in Gaza. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our Q&A Iran: Death of a President and All Eyes on The Hague: The ICC Prosecutor's Move against Hamas and Israeli Leaders. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Ali Vaez, Director of the Crisis Group's Iran Project, on the implications for Iran and the Middle East if Iranian President, Ebrahim Raisa, is confirmed dead in helicopter crash.

Recent weeks have seen a series of strikes between Israel and Iran. Israel's attack on an Iranian embassy building in Damascus, killing seven, followed by Iranian barrage of missile and drone strikes on Israel, killing no one, and then followed by Israeli strikes on Iran in Isfahan all of this occurring, of course, with the continuing unfolding genocide against Palestinians in Gaza and intensifying violence in the West Bank. As these strikes between Israel and Iran ignited fears of a regional conflagration, we are joined on the show by prominent Iran scholar and anthropologist Narges Bajoghli, whose most recent co-authored book is an in-depth study of the impact and perverse effects of sanctions on Iran, as well as by eminent scholar of international law John Quigley.We discuss recent events from the perspective of international law and dissect dangerously pervasive myths, assumptions and racist tropes informing policy with respect to Iran.Narges Bajoghli is Assistant Professor at the Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies. She is an award-winning anthropologist, writer, and professor. Trained as a political anthropologist, media anthropologist, and documentary filmmaker, Narges' research is at the intersections of media, power, and resistance. She is the author of several books, including the award-winning book Iran Reframed: Anxieties of Power in the Islamic Republic (Stanford University Press 2019; winner 2020 Margaret Mead Award; 2020 Choice Award for Outstanding Academic Title; 2021 Silver Medal in Independent Publisher Book Awards for Current Events);  ​How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare (with Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Esfahani, and Ali Vaez, Stanford University Press 2024); and a graphic novella, Sanctioned Lives (2024). Before joining the Ohio State faculty in 1969, Professor John B. Quigley was a research scholar at Moscow State University, and a research associate in comparative law at Harvard Law School. Professor Quigley teaches International Law and Comparative Law. In 1982-83 he was a visiting professor at the University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania.Professor Quigley is active in international human rights work. His numerous publications include books and articles on human rights, the United Nations, war and peace, east European law, African law, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. In 1995 he was recipient of The Ohio State University Distinguished Scholar Award. He formerly held the title of President's Club Professor of Law.

In this episode, host Steve Clemons speaks with Ussama Makdisi, professor of history at the University of California, Berkeley; and Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group.The exchange of direct attacks between Iran and Israel is likely to subside, but the shadow war goes on, which could intensify as long as the war on Gaza continues, argues Vaez.And as long as the wider Palestinian issue remains unresolved, there is little to no hope for long-lasting stability throughout the region, says Makdisi, especially with the US policy of rejecting equal regard for the rights of the Palestinian people.

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard is joined by Crisis Group experts Ali Vaez, Mairav Zonszein, Michael Hanna, Lahib Higel and Robert Blecher to discuss the exchange of fire between Iran and Israel, risks of a wider regional war and what the escalation means for the war in Gaza. Richard first speaks with Ali, Mairav and Michael about Iran's calculations in launching an attack on 13 April that saw hundreds of missiles and drones target Israeli military infrastructure, debates in Israel on how to respond and views within both countries' societies. They also talk about U.S. efforts to stop regional tensions spiralling out of control. Richard then talks with Lahib and Rob about the latest developments in Gaza, particularly warnings of famine and prospects for a ceasefire. For more on the topics discussed in this episode, check out our latest statement The Israel-Iran Crisis: A Chance to Step Back from the Brink, our report Stopping Famine in Gaza and our Middle East & North Africa page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On April 13, Iran did something it had never done before: it launched a direct attack on Israel from Iranian territory. As historic and spectacular as the attack was, Israel, the United States, and others managed to intercept a huge percentage of the drones and missiles fired, and the damage inflicted by Iranian strikes was minor. Still, the world is waiting tensely to see how Israel will respond—and whether the Middle East can avoid full-scale war.  To understand the attack and its consequences, Foreign Affairs Editor Daniel Kurtz-Phelan spoke with Suzanne Maloney, vice president and director of the Brookings Institution's Foreign Policy program, and Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.  We discuss where this conflict could go next—and how to bring the two sides back from the brink of war.  You can find transcripts and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.

Vous aimez notre peau de caste ? Soutenez-nous ! https://www.lenouvelespritpublic.fr/abonnement Une émission de Philippe Meyer, enregistrée au studio l'Arrière-boutique le 12 avril 2024. Avec cette semaine : François Bujon de l'Estang, ambassadeur de France. Nicole Gnesotto, vice-présidente de l'Institut Jacques Delors. Marc-Olivier Padis, directeur des études de la fondation Terra Nova. Richard Werly, correspondant à Paris du quotidien helvétique Blick. REVOIR LES DÉPENSES PUBLIQUES Le 10 avril, le gouvernement a fait évoluer sa prévision du déficit de 4,4% du PIB à à 5,1 % espérés. Selon les prévisions de Bercy, ce déficit doit revenir à 2,9 % en 2027. Il avait déjà sévèrement dérapé à 5,5% au lieu des 4,9% prévus en 2023, en raison principalement de recettes moindres que celles attendues. Au quatrième trimestre 2023, la dette de la France atteignait 3.200 milliards d'euros. Depuis 2017, elle s'est alourdie de près de 1.000 milliards d'euros. Face au mur de la dette, le gouvernement cherche à faire des économies. Après l'annonce de 10 milliards d'euros d'économies en 2024, le ministère des Finances a fixé un objectif de 20 milliards supplémentaires à trouver en 2025 sur l'ensemble des trois postes (Etat, Sécurité sociale, collectivités locales). La Cour des comptes évoque, elle, 50 milliards d'ici à 2027. Ce chantier des économies à réaliser en 2025 est déjà ouvert. Des audits de la dépense ont été pour partie rendus au gouvernement, qui décidera des suites à leur donner d'ici à l'été. Quelques pistes sont déjà dans le débat public, comme notamment la réforme de l'assurance-chômage, les crédits d'impôts, les dispositifs de sortie de crise, les politiques de l'emploi et de la formation professionnelle, la revalorisation automatique des prestations sociales indexées sur les prix, à commencer par les retraites… La piste des affections de longue durée a été écartée. L'économiste Jean Pisani-Ferry estime que, si le péril financier n'a rien d'immédiat, il doit conduire à un réexamen collectif du budget et de son financement, sans exclure ni emprunt, ni impôt, ni réductions. Selon lui, en valeur 2025, ce sont 150 milliards qu'il faut trouver dans les années à venir afin d'assainir les finances publiques et financer les priorités nouvelles. Priorités précisées par l'économiste Olivier Blanchard qui distingue trois composantes dans le déficit : celle liée aux dépenses traditionnelles (allocations-chômage, retraites, paiements des fonctionnaires…), celle liée à la défense contre la Russie et à la lutte contre le réchauffement climatique et, enfin, celles liées au soutien de l'activité en cas de ralentissement. Pour lui, le plan doit clairement être de diminuer les premières, d'augmenter les dépenses liées à la défense et au climat, qui sont vitales à court et long terme, et de soutenir l'économie si nécessaire. Le président de la République, jugeant le débat anxiogène souhaite que l'accent soit mis sur les recettes supplémentaires à engranger plutôt que sur les coupes. Il a rejeté l'idée de présenter des mesures d'économies dans le cadre d'un projet de loi de finances rectificatif qui aurait nécessité un examen parlementaire. Des mesures seront présentées en conseil des ministres le 17 avril, et débattues au Parlement les 29 et 30 avril. Le verdict des agences de notation, qui doivent actualiser la note de crédit française, tombera dans quelques semaines. L'agence Moody's a d'ores et déjà estimé « improbable » que le gouvernement atteigne son objectif de déficit de 4,4 % du PIB en 2024 et de moins de 3 % en 2027. ISRAËL-IRAN, LA PROCHAINE GUERRE ? Le 1er avril, des frappes attribuées à l'aviation israélienne ont entièrement rasé le consulat iranien à Damas, la capitale syrienne. Elles ont tué 13 personnes, dont plusieurs Gardiens de la révolution et deux commandants de la force Al-Qodsn. Parli eux, le plus haut gradé des gardiens de la révolution Mohammad Reza Zahedi, un général expérimenté de 65 ans en charge des opérations en Syrie et au Liban voisin. Une frappe prenant pour cible une enceinte diplomatique, ou même un bâtiment semi-officiel contigu, représente une escalade qui pourrait avoir des conséquences importantes. Ce faisant, « Israël a franchi une ligne », estime Ali Vaez, analyste de l'International Crisis Group. Le président iranien, Ebrahim Raïssi, a affirmé que ces frappes « ne resteraient pas sans réponse ». L'Iran se trouve désormais face à un dilemme. Une riposte pourrait provoquer un conflit ouvert avec Israël et un embrasement régional. Un scénario que Téhéran cherche à éviter depuis le début de la guerre dans la bande de Gaza, le 7 octobre 2023, laissant ses alliés au sein de « l'axe de la résistance » – le Hezbollah libanais, les milices irakiennes et les houthistes yéménites – attaquer seuls l'Etat hébreu en soutien du Hamas. Mais ne pas répondre pourrait ternir la réputation du régime au sein de cet axe et réduire à néant son pouvoir de dissuasion face à Israël. Depuis le début de la guerre civile en Syrie en 2011, Israël a mené des centaines de frappes dans ce pays contre des positions du pouvoir syrien, des groupes pro-iraniens – comme le Hezbollah libanais – et des cibles militaires iraniennes, tout en prenant soin de ne pas tuer des ressortissants de la République islamique, afin d'éviter une confrontation plus large. Les États-Unis ont tenu à faire savoir à Téhéran qu'ils « n'étaient pas impliqués » dans le raid de Damas. La Russie et la Chine ont toutes deux dénoncé vigoureusement cette frappe, qualifiée d' « inacceptable » par Moscou, qui soutient le régime de Bachar el-Assad à Damas. De son côté, l'Union européenne s'est contentée d'appeler à « la retenue ». Afin de ne pas être surprise par des représailles, l'armée israélienne a annoncé avoir renforcé les unités de défense aérienne, mobilisé des renforts de réservistes, suspendu des permissions dans toutes les unités combattantes, et brouillé des signaux GPS afin de perturber d'éventuels vols de missiles iraniens, ou du Hezbollah. L'Iran dispose de missiles d'une portée de 2.000 km susceptibles d'atteindre des cibles stratégiques comme le ministère de la Défense à Tel-Aviv, le quartier des ministères à Jérusalem, mais aussi des raffineries, des centrales électriques, des hôpitaux …Chaque semaine, Philippe Meyer anime une conversation d'analyse politique, argumentée et courtoise, sur des thèmes nationaux et internationaux liés à l'actualité. Pour en savoir plus : www.lenouvelespritpublic.fr

On this episode of the Energy Security Cubed Podcast, Kelly Ogle and Joe Calnan interview Gregory Brew about the growing tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East, the thinking from Tehran, and how it relates to international energy. Guest Bio: - Greg Brew is a CGAI Fellow and an analyst with Eurasia Group's Energy, Climate & Resources team focusing on the geopolitics of oil and gas. In addition, he serves as Eurasia Group's country analyst for Iran. Host Bio: - Kelly Ogle is Managing Director of the Canadian Global Affairs Institute - Joe Calnan is a Fellow and Energy Security Forum Manager at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute Reading recommendations: - "How Sanctions Work: Iran and the Impact of Economic Warfare", by Narges Bajoghli, Vali Nasr, Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, and Ali Vaez: https://www.sup.org/books/title/?id=35571&local_ref=new Interview recording Date: February 14, 2023 Energy Security Cubed is part of the CGAI Podcast Network. Follow the Canadian Global Affairs Institute on Facebook, Twitter (@CAGlobalAffairs), or on LinkedIn. Head over to our website at www.cgai.ca for more commentary. Produced by Joe Calnan. Music credits to Drew Phillips.

Tommy and Ben talk about the drone strike by an Iranian-backed group on a US base in Jordan that killed three US service members, the pressure on Biden to retaliate against Iran directly, and the muddled politics of war. They also cover allegations that UN employees in Gaza participated in the October 7th Hamas attack, the International Court of Justice's ruling about genocide charges against Israel, and Nancy Pelosi's odd criticism of activists calling for a ceasefire. They also discuss NATO member fears about Russia, Trump floating major tariffs on China, a Kenyan court blocking the deployment of police to Haiti, and French farmers laying siege to Paris. Then, Tommy speaks with Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, about Iranian proxy groups, why Iran funds them, and the US conventional wisdom that Iran can only be deterred through military action.

A U.S. priority since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack has been preventing violence from expanding across the region. But overnight, the U.S. launched strikes at Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Yemen, following attacks by those groups. Nick Schifrin reports on the widening military campaign and the threat posed by Iran and gets two views on the exchange of fire from Michael Doran and Ali Vaez. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

A U.S. priority since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack has been preventing violence from expanding across the region. But overnight, the U.S. launched strikes at Iranian-backed groups in both Iraq and Yemen, following attacks by those groups. Nick Schifrin reports on the widening military campaign and the threat posed by Iran and gets two views on the exchange of fire from Michael Doran and Ali Vaez. PBS NewsHour is supported by - https://www.pbs.org/newshour/about/funders

Cuộc tấn công đẫm máu của phe Hamas nhắm vào lãnh thổ Israel hôm 07/10/2023 đã phô bày một sự yếu kém nhất thời chưa từng thấy của người Do Thái. Các nhà lãnh đạo Cộng hòa Hồi Giáo Iran muốn nắm bắt cơ hội hiếm có này để làm suy yếu thêm đối thủ Israel, nhưng vẫn tìm cách tránh một cuộc đối đầu trực diện. Hiện tại, sau cuộc tấn công bất ngờ của Hamas, quân đội Israel dường như đang sẵn sàng đổ bộ lên dải Gaza. Ở phía bắc, nhiều cuộc va chạm giữa lực lượng Israel và nhóm dân quân vệ Hezbollah được Iran hậu thuẫn cũng đã nổ ra. Tại nhiều thành phố trên thế giới đã diễn ra các cuộc biểu tình ủng hộ người Palestine.Iran : Lời lẽ cứng rắn và nỗi lo « mất khả năng kiểm soát »Hoa Kỳ lập tức điều hai cụm tàu sân bay đến vùng Đông Địa Trung Hải. Thứ Năm 19/10, một tầu chiến Mỹ đã bắn hạ nhiều tên lửa và drone được bắn đi từ Yemen, mà theo quân đội Mỹ, dường như nhắm hướng Israel. Ngày 23/10/2023, Hoa Kỳ cáo buộc Iran « tích cực hậu thuẫn » các cuộc tấn công bằng drone và rốc-kết nhằm vào nhiều căn cứ quân sự của Mỹ tại Irak và Syria trong vòng một tuần, tính từ hôm 17/10, làm khoảng 24 lính Mỹ bị thương.Dấu hiệu cho thấy Lầu Năm Góc dự báo khả năng sẽ có nhiều cuộc tấn công tương tự trong thời gian sắp tới: quân đội Mỹ thông báo nâng cao năng lực phòng không khi cho triển khai thêm nhiều hệ thống tên lửa bắn chặn THAAD và Patriot trong vùng để bảo vệ các lực lượng Mỹ. Chủ Nhật 22/10, Washington cảnh cáo Iran và các tổ chức vũ trang đồng minh của nước này về mọi ý định mở rộng cuộc xung đột ở vùng Cận Đông, và cho biết « sẽ có hành động » trong trường hợp tấn công các lợi ích của Mỹ và Israel.Về phía Iran, ba ngày sau vụ tấn công đẫm máu, ngày 10/10, lãnh đạo tối cao, giáo chủ Ali Khamenei, đã hoan nghênh chiến dịch quân sự của Hamas, một thành phần trong mạng lưới các nhóm vũ trang phi chính phủ được Iran sử dụng để củng cố tầm ảnh hưởng trong khu vực.Tuy nhiên, một mặt, Iran phủ nhận mọi sự can dự trong cuộc tấn công, giới chức Mỹ và Israel thừa nhận hiện không có « bằng chứng trực tiếp » để chứng minh điều ngược lại. Nhưng mặt khác, trước khả năng Israel mở chiến dịch tấn công quy mô lớn vào dải Gaza, chế độ Teheran không ngừng đưa ra những lời cảnh cáo « không ai có thể ngăn cản được các lực lượng kháng chiến » và những lời dọa dẫm « đáp trả » hay « mở rộng nhiều mặt trận ».Theo báo Pháp Le Monde, trong chiến lược răn đe của kẻ yếu trước kẻ mạnh, từ ba thập niên qua, Iran đã âm thầm xây dựng một mạng lưới các nhóm vũ trang, tập hợp các kẻ thù của Israel và Mỹ từ Hezbollah Liban, phe nổi dậy người Huthi ở Yemen, cho đến các đơn vị Huy động quần chúng ở Irak, hay đội quân lê dương, quy tụ nhiều sư đoàn người Afghanistan và Pakistan, những đội quân thường xuyên được Iran triển khai ở Syria để bảo vệ chế độ Damas.Theo giới quan sát, giọng điệu đầy tính dọa dẫm này của Iran đang che giấu một nỗi lo « mất kiểm soát » trong trường hợp xung đột lan rộng. Trả lời báo Le Monde, nhà nghiên cứu Hamidreza Azizi, Viện Nghiên cứu về Quan hệ Quốc tế của Đức phân tích :« Ngoại trưởng Iran Hossein Amir Abdollahian tìm cách khẳng định vị thế như là phát ngôn viên của trục kháng chiến khi cùng lúc nhắc rằng những nhóm vũ trang này sẽ đưa ra các quyết định một cách độc lập. Điều làm Iran lo lắng là khả năng Hoa Kỳ can thiệp quân sự và gia tăng hậu thuẫn Israel, và như vậy có thể khuyến khích Israel đánh cả các nhóm thân Iran bên ngoài dải Gaza. Đương nhiên, Iran không muốn can dự vào một cuộc chiến diện rộng, nhưng nguy cơ này mỗi ngày một lớn ».Những mục tiêu của IranTrong trước mắt, cuộc xung đột bùng lên tại dải Gaza, đang đáp ứng nhiều mục tiêu của Iran trước « kẻ thù truyền kiếp » Israel. Thứ nhất, tuy không thể ngăn chặn một cách « không thể vãn hồi » sự xích lại gần giữa nhà nước Do Thái với các nước Ả Rập trong khuôn khổ thỏa thuận Abraham (được ký kết giữa Israel với Các Tiểu Vương Quốc Ả Rập Thống Nhất, Bahrein, Maroc và Sudan), nhưng cuộc xung đột ở dải Gaza không những đẩy lùi triển vọng bình thường hóa quan hệ giữa Aviv và Riyad, mà còn củng cố tạm thời tiến trình hòa giải giữa Ả Rập Xê Út và Iran, được thông báo tại Bắc Kinh hồi tháng 3/2023.Georges Malbrunot, phóng viên báo Pháp Le Figaro, chuyên gia về Trung Đông, trên kênh truyền hình France 24 nhận định :« Mối quan hệ giữa Riyad và Teheran có khả năng được củng cố đến mức cả Iran và Ả Rập Xê Út cùng lên án các cuộc oanh kích của Israel nhằm vào thường dân trên dải Gaza. Nhưng tôi nghĩ rằng, đằng sau việc tỏ lập trường cứng rắn, thông báo tạm hoãn các cuộc đàm phán mà nước này đang tiến hành với Mỹ nhằm hướng đến việc bình thường hóa quan hệ với Israel, còn có những tính toán của hoàng thái tử Mohamed Ben Salman. Ông ấy sợ bị Iran qua mặt trong vai trò quốc  gia bảo vệ chính người dân Ả Rập. Bởi vì đối với nhiều nước Ả Rập, trong Vùng Vịnh, Ả Rập Xê Út dẫu sao cũng là quốc gia hùng mạnh nhất. »Thứ hai, Iran xem cuộc tấn công của Hamas hôm 07/10 là một « thất bại không thể khắc phục » cho Israel. Vì vậy, giáo chủ Khamenei đặt cược nhiều vào sự xấu đi hình ảnh và danh tiếng của Israel trên trường quốc tế, với chuỗi hình ảnh thường dân bị quân đội Israel giết chết ở Gaza, những lời kêu gọi tấn công trên bộ ngày càng nhiều. Một lằn ranh chia rẽ mới giữa khối phương Tây, vốn dĩ không tiếc lời ủng hộ Israel và phương Nam toàn cầu, lên án mạnh mẽ các cuộc oanh kích trên dải Gaza. Tất cả những điều đó đều phục vụ cho các lợi ích của Iran.« Trục kháng chiến » : Công cụ đối ngoại và an ninh của IranColin P. Clarke, giám đốc nghiên cứu tại Soufan Group, một cơ quan tư vấn về tình báo và an ninh, trụ sở tại New York, trên trang mạng New York Times (23/10/2023) còn nhắc đến một mục tiêu khác của Iran trong sự kiện này. Vị chuyên gia này trước hết nhắc lại, việc đào tạo và trang bị các nhóm khủng bố, các phe nổi dậy và dân quân là một yếu tố trung tâm trong chính sách đối ngoại và an ninh của Iran tại Trung Đông. Mỗi năm, nước Cộng hòa Hồi Giáo này chi ra hàng trăm triệu đô la để nâng cao năng lực chiến đấu cho Hezbollah, Hamas và nhiều nhóm khác.Iran sử dụng những lực lượng này theo cách « ủy nhiệm » để thúc đẩy các mục tiêu an ninh quốc gia : Đẩy lui các đối thủ như Mỹ, có đến hơn 30 ngàn quân trú đóng tại nhiều căn cứ khác nhau ở Trung Đông, ngoài khu vực, đồng thời mở rộng vùng ảnh hưởng của riêng mình. Các lực lượng « ủy nhiệm » này giúp Iran từ trong hậu trường can dự vào các cuộc xung đột đang diễn ra nhưng vẫn có được một sự phủ nhận nào đó, cũng như là tránh bị lôi vào một cuộc đối đầu quân sự trực diện.Giờ đây, xung đột ngày càng gia tăng, người ta lo sợ Israel hướng đến một cuộc đối đầu trực diện với Iran. Tuy nhiên, giới quan sát cho rằng, lằn ranh đỏ thực sự của Iran hiện nay là mặt trận phía nam Liban. Nếu Hezbollah quyết định lợi dụng thời cơ các lực lượng phòng thủ Israel bị quá tải và chính thức mở thêm mặt trận thứ hai ở phía bắc Israel, tình hình có nguy cơ trở nên tồi tệ hơn và xuống cấp nhanh chóng. Mọi tính toán sai lầm từ phía Iran từ hay một trong số các lực lượng « ủy nhiệm » đều có thể dẫn đến một hành động trả đũa dữ dội từ Israel và sự can dự của Hoa Kỳ, mở đường cho một cuộc xung đột toàn khu vực.Ali Vaez, điều hành nhóm nghiên cứu về Iran, thuộc International Crisis Group, trên kênh truyền hình Euronews, cho rằng Iran hiện đang trong thế lưỡng nan : « Tôi nghĩ rằng nguy cơ chính ở đây là, để bảo vệ uy tín và năng lực răn đe của mình, Iran rất có thể khuyến khích các đồng minh tại Liban, nhất là phe Hezbollah, vốn dĩ hùng mạnh hơn Hamas, mở thêm một mặt trận mới chống Israel ở phía bắc. Nếu Iran can dự vào cuộc xung đột này, các nước Irak, Syria và Liban cũng có thể bị lôi kéo vào cuộc chiến chống Israel và Mỹ, với nhiều hệ quả có thể dẫn đến một thảm họa, không những cho khu vực, mà cho toàn thế giới. » Trung Quốc : Trung gian hòa giải « lý tưởng » ?Trước một viễn cảnh u ám, nhiều nhà quan sát cho rằng, trong cuộc xung đột này, không có một giải pháp nào khác ngoài con đường ngoại giao, mà trước hết là một lệnh ngừng bắn càng sớm càng tốt cả về mặt chiến lược và nhân đạo.Trong lĩnh vực này, cường quốc nào có vị trí tốt nhất để làm trung gian hòa giải? Hoa Kỳ và châu Âu không thể làm được, vì đã chọn phe. Nước Nga của ông Vladimir Putin tuy có nền ngoại giao vững mạnh, nhưng do trọng lượng kinh tế yếu cũng như do lập trường của Nga trong hồ sơ Syria nên Matxcơva chưa đủ sức để gây ảnh hưởng.Chỉ còn lại Trung Quốc, với tầm ảnh hưởng mạnh mẽ về kinh tế và gần đây là ngoại giao trong tiến trình hòa giải giữa Iran và Ả Rập Xê Út. Về điểm này, trả lời RFI Tiếng Việt, ông Didier Chaudet, chuyên gia về Nam – Trung Á nhận định : « Trong cuộc xung đột Israel – Palestine, lúc này, Israel chưa hẳn muốn có cuộc thảo luận. Trừ khi đến một lúc nào đó, tình hình chuyển hướng, chiến tranh có nguy cơ xảy ra, thì lúc ấy, Hoa Kỳ và Trung Quốc có thể phối hợp với nhau để ngăn chặn một cuộc chiến tranh cục bộ ».

The US and Iran recently announced a surprise agreement: Both nations will release prisoners, and the US will unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian oil revenue. Bloomberg's Courtney McBride joins this episode to discuss what we know about the terms of the deal, and what it suggests about the possibility of renewed negotiations over Iran's nuclear program. Plus, Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, weighs in on what's ahead for the Iran-US relationship. Read more: Iran Transfers US Citizens From Prison in Step Toward Deal Listen to The Big Take podcast every weekday and subscribe to our daily newsletter: https://bloom.bg/3F3EJAK  Have questions or comments for Wes and the team? Reach us at bigtake@bloomberg.net.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In today's podcast Josh Phegan is joined by Ali Vaez of Activepipe, which provides email marketing to businesses. Ali gives us 8 reasons why you should be using email marketing, and Josh highlights the rise of AI and the power of segmentation. They discuss targeted interactive emails that increase open and click-through rates, scalable cost-effective communication, optimising your datasets, and they step through how Activepipe works and what you can set it up to do.

For more than a year, Ukraine has defied predictions with its resistance, but senior leaders – including the country's defense minister – are now trying to manage expectations for a much-anticipated counteroffensive. The key, of course, is support from nations like the US, but there is a sense the NATO alliance is calling for visible results before providing more weapons. Former Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe is a longstanding friend of President Biden and has just traveled to close to the frontlines in Ukraine. He joins the show from Kyiv.  Also on today's show: Ali Vaez, Director of Iran Project, International Crisis Group; Gretchen Morgenson, Co-author, “These Are the Plunderers” To learn more about how CNN protects listener privacy, visit cnn.com/privacy

This week on Babel, Jon Alterman speaks with Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group. They talk about the Saudi-Iranian agreement to resume diplomatic ties, how it fits into Iran's wider foreign policy strategy around the region, and the prospects for a broader détente between Iran and its Arab neighbors in the Gulf. Vaez suggests that a regional nuclear agreement between Iran and Arab states in the Gulf might be a more viable path forward than an agreement between Iran and the West. Then, Jon continues the conversation with Natasha Hall and Caleb Harper, discussing what this all means for U.S. policy toward Iran and in the rest of the region.  Ali Vaez, “The Long Twilight of the Islamic Republic,” Foreign Affairs, February 2, 2023.  Jon Alterman, "Saudi Arabia Steps Out," CSIS, March 23, 2023. Jon Alterman, "Why Did China Help Saudi Arabia and Iran Resume Diplomatic Ties?" CSIS, March 10, 2023. Transcript, "Iran's Regional Policy," CSIS, April 4, 2023.

Last week, Saudi Arabia and Iran agreed to restore diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China. The two countries had broken off ties in 2016, after Saudi authorities executed a prominent Shiite cleric and dissident, prompting protesters in Tehran to sack the Saudi embassy. Last week's deal follows several rounds of talks, hosted by Iraq and Oman over recent years, between Iranian and Saudi officials. It comes at a time of deepening Iranian ties to Russia, with Iran sending weapons to help Moscow's war efforts in Ukraine. In contrast, Tehran's relations with Europe and the U.S. are at a new low, due partly to anger in Western capitals at the Islamic Republic's brutal repression of the protests, often led by young women, that have engulfed the country over recent months. Western leaders are incensed, too, by Iran's support for Russia in Ukraine. Talks over Iran's nuclear program are on hold, even as it has advanced dramatically. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood is joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's Iran project director and senior adviser to the president, to shed light on the Saudi-Iranian deal, Tehran's evolving foreign relations and the looming crisis over its nuclear program. They discuss the recent agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what both sides, and China, get from the deal. They look at efforts to end Yemen's war and Iran's influence over Huthi rebels. They talk about what is driving the change in Iran's relations with Russia. They also discuss Iran's worsening relations with Europe and the U.S. and prospects for diplomacy to head off a confrontation over its rapidly advancing nuclear capability. For more on the situation, check out our latest Q&A How Beijing Helped Riyadh and Tehran Reach a Detente and Crisis Group's extensive analysis on our Iran country page. Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

"This kind of dissent? It doesn't go away." That's what NPR heard from a 20-year-old woman on the street in Tehran.Mary Louise Kelly and a team of producers traveled there last week to see what life looks like, and what remains of the protests that shook the country for months, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini. Amini died in police custody after being detained, reportedly for improperly wearing a headscarf, part of Iran's strict dress code for women. Human rights groups say the regime cracked down on those protests with killings, arrests and executions.In Iran, NPR found people frightened of the regime, but who felt nevertheless compelled to air their grievances.We speak with Ali Vaez, an Iran expert with the International Crisis Group, about the lingering discontent behind the protests and what could happen next.Find more of NPR's reporting from Iran.In participating regions, you'll also hear a local news segment to help you make sense of what's going on in your community.Email us at considerthis@npr.org.

As Iran approaches the 44th anniversary of the revolution it finds itself at a junction. US and European Union sanctions have crippled Iran's economy. Thousands of citizens have taken to the streets to protest the Islamic government's strict religious laws, and the brutality of its security forces in crushing dissent. Thousands of protesters have been arrested, and some have been put to death. Yet despite international economic pressure and rising internal discontent, there are few signs that Iran's government is weakening. Bloomberg senior international affairs correspondent Marc Champion joins the episode to discuss the turmoil happening now. Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, joins to weigh in on tensions between Iran and the West that could boil over and how governments might prevent that from happening. Read more: https://bloom.bg/3x6sGgL Listen to The Big Take podcast every weekday and subscribe to our daily newsletter: https://bloom.bg/3F3EJAK  Have questions or comments for Wes and the team? Reach us at bigtake@bloomberg.net.See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ali Vaez, director of the International Crisis Group's Iran Project, talked with The World's host Marco Werman about how sustained protests in Iran may be impacting the power of the so-called "morality police."  

EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell's visit to Teheran in June was meant to revitalise negotiations around the Iran nuclear deal. But the talks, which recently resumed in Doha, remain mired in mistrust and intransigence from both sides. For this week's podcast, Mark Leonard has assembled a team of Iran experts to take stock of the negotiations in Qatar: ECFR senior policy fellow, Ellie Geranmayeh; former Iranian diplomat and security and nuclear policy specialist at Princeton University, Hossein Mousavian; professor of Middle East studies and international affairs, Vali Nasr; and the director of International Crisis Group's Iran project, Ali Vaez discuss the latest developments and evaluate different possible outcomes and their consequences. Is there any chance of breaking the stalemate without escalation? And what will be the impact of the upcoming midterm elections in the US? This podcast was recorded on 1 July 2022. Further reading: - Borrell in Tehran: How to overcome three obstacles to the Iran nuclear deal By Ellie Geranmayeh Bookshelf: - Iron net: Digital repression in the Middle East and North Africa by James Lynch - Born in Blackness by Howard W French - Master of the Game by Martin Indyk - Republics of Myth by Hussein Banai, Malcolm Byrne, And John Tirman Cover image: EU High Representative Josep Borrell visits Iran · Image by European Union, 2022

Renewing the Iran nuclear deal is more urgent than ever for the Biden administration. Iran is closer to getting the bomb, with the breakout time to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon reportedly less than two weeks. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of reaching an agreement in the short term are 50/50.   There are domestic political risks for Biden either way, but a new deal would significantly delay Iran's ability to enrich enough uranium for a weapon. It's also now clear that the real effect of pulling out of the deal in 2018 was that it boosted Iran's nuclear program. Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal, which they have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.  

Renewing the Iran nuclear deal is more urgent than ever for the Biden administration. Iran is closer to getting the bomb, with the breakout time to enrich enough uranium for a single nuclear weapon reportedly less than two weeks. On the GZERO World podcast, Ian Bremmer speaks to Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who says the odds of reaching an agreement in the short term are 50/50.   There are domestic political risks for Biden either way, but a new deal would significantly delay Iran's ability to enrich enough uranium for a weapon. It's also now clear that the real effect of pulling out of the deal in 2018 was that it boosted Iran's nuclear program. Vaez also digs into Israel's strategic interest in a deal, which they have long opposed, and Russia's role in the negotiations with Iran.   Subscribe to the GZERO World with Ian Bremmer Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your preferred podcast platform, to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

In seven episodes, the Babel: U.S. Power and Influence in the Middle East podcast miniseries will take a closer look at two decades of heightened U.S. engagement in the region. Over seven weeks, Babel will cover how the United States has used its military, economic, diplomatic, and soft power tools in the Middle East—and how the Middle East has responded.   In part three, Jon looks at how the United States has used its economic toolkit in the region, and how successful sanctions and development aid have been in advancing U.S. interests in the Middle East. He speaks with Howard Schatz, a senior economist at RAND who served on the Bush administration's Council of Economic Advisors in 2007; Amy Hawthorne, the deputy director for research for the Project on Middle East Democracy who served as a senior advisor for Near Eastern Affairs in the State Department during the Arab Spring; and Ali Vaez, the International Crisis Group's Iran project director.   Howard Shatz. "The Power and Limits of Threat: The Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act at One Year,” Real Clear Defense. July 7, 2021.   Amy Hawthorne, "Egypt: Trends in Politics, Economics, and Human Rights," Before The House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on the Middle East, North Africa, and International Terrorism, 116th Congress, 2020. Ali Vaez and Naysan Rafati, “U.S. Maximum Pressure Meets Iranian Maximum Pressure,” International Crisis Group, November 5, 2019.  Transcript, "U.S. Power and Influence in the Middle East: Part Three," CSIS, March 15, 2022.

The threat posed by nuclear weapons is changing and policy-makers are struggling to keep up. As the Non-Proliferation Treaty review conference approaches, it is clear that the nuclear security field needs a new way of thinking. Nuclear-weapon states are expanding their arsenals and non-proliferation efforts have faltered: it is estimated that Tehran's nuclear breakout time is now less than a month away, following Donald Trump's unilateral withdrawal from the Iran deal in 2018 that had extended that timeline to 12 months.This week on War & Peace, Olga Oliker and Special guest-host Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's Iran Project Director, are joined by Dr Emma Belcher, President of Ploughshares Fund, to ask whether and how bold innovation can solve some of these intractable challenges. They discuss the ways in which policy debates have, or have not, evolved, the continued dominance of deterrence theory and the wave of new, diverse and creative thinkers challenging stale ideas. They also discuss the resumption of negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, prospects for other non-proliferation efforts and hopes for a nuclear-weapon-free future.Make sure to learn more about Dr Belcher's work at Ploughshares Fund by visiting ploughsares.org and listening to Ploughshares podcast Press the Button.This episode is part of our continuing War & Peace sub-series on nuclear weapons and strategy. Click on our special coverage page here to listen to more episodes and benefit from a range of perspectives about everything from deterrence to civil defense to nuclear-weapons-free zones. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

How do we know when it's time to take a risk and push, or if it's better to step back and negotiate? In this episode, a co-production with Foreign Policy, we're talking about calculated risks in high stakes situations. Retired four-star general Stanley McChrystal talks with Foreign Policy's pentagon and national security reporter Jack Detsch about his new book Risk: A User's Guide, ​​US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the risks that leaders face everyday. Then, we give you a preview of a new podcast series called The Negotiators. Wendy Sherman, currently Deputy Secretary of State, talks about the tactics she deployed in negotiating the Iran nuclear agreement. We close with an update on Iran nuclear negotiations with Jenn Williams, deputy editor at Foreign Policy, and Ali Vaez, director at the International Crisis Group. Guests: Stanley McChrystal, US Army General (Ret.), co-founder and partner, McChrystal Group Wendy Sherman, Deputy Secretary of State Ali Vaez, director, International Crisis Group Hosts: Teresa Cotsirilos, senior producer, WorldAffairs Jack Detsch, Pentagon and national security reporter, Foreign Policy Jenn Williams, deputy editor, Foreign Policy If you appreciate this episode and want to support the work we do, please consider making a donation to WorldAffairs. We cannot do this work without your help. Thank you.

Negar Mortazavi joins a panel discussion at the University of Chicago's Pearson Institute, about Iran's foreign and domestic policies under the new hardline administration of Ebrahim Raisi, with Mahsa Rouhi, Vali Nasr, Pouya Alimagham and Ali Vaez. --- Send in a voice message: https://anchor.fm/theiranpodcast/message Support this podcast: https://anchor.fm/theiranpodcast/support

Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director at the International Crisis Group, discusses why the Iran nuclear talks could remain in ‘suspended animation;' why some Iranian leaders may prefer to stick with the ‘resistance economy' rather than pursue sanctions relief under a new nuclear deal; why the window for goodwill gestures to shake up the nuclear talks may have passed; and the prospects for release of Iranian-American detainees in Iran.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Shalonda Spencer and Maher Akremi of Women of Color Advancing Peace, Security & Conflict Transformation (WCAPS) join Press the Button to discuss the Organizations in Solidarity initiative at WCAPS, and the fight for racial justice and equity in the peace and security field. Early Warning features Ali Vaez of International Crisis Group on the election of Ebrahim Raisi as the next president of Iran, and what that means for the Iran nuclear agreement.

As Iranians go to the polls on Friday to elect a new president, Iranian diplomats are meeting their Western counterparts in Vienna in their latest efforts to get back to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. This week on Hold Your Fire!, Richard Atwood and Naz Modirzadeh are joined by Ali Vaez, Crisis Group's senior adviser to the president and Iran project director, for an in-depth look at the elections, the nuclear talks and Iran's role in the region. Ali explains that while elections in the Islamic Republic are never free or fair, this vote is likely to be even less competitive than usual, with the playing field narrowed to favour current front runner, the hardliner Ebrahim Raisi. They talk about how this could relate to Supreme Leader Ali Khameini's succession plans. They also talk about where things stand in the talks over Iran's nuclear program, with U.S. and other diplomats locked in a sixth round of talks with their Iranian counterparts aimed at reviving the nuclear deal. They discuss what would happen if the parties fail to reach an agreement. They also talk about the deal's significance for regional politics and whether recent talks between Iranian and Saudi officials in the Iraqi capital Baghdad offer some hope of calming the bitter Iran-Saudi rivalry that has overshadowed the region for decades. For more information, explore Crisis Group's analysis on our Iran page. See acast.com/privacy for privacy and opt-out information.

This week we are bringing you a special edition of the programme, where we will be delving into the Iranian election. It's been a rocky lead-up that has left many voters inside the Islamic Republic disillusioned as the Guardian Council has whittled down some 600 candidates to just over a handful. In doing so, the council eliminated a number of prominent Reformists, who might have brought some rivalry to the race. We will be joined by Ali Vaez, who is the Crisis Group's Iran Project Director.

Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group, and adjunct professor in the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University School of Foreign Service, discusses the crisis in relations between the west and Iran. He talked specifically about Europe's diplomatic efforts on this issue, and traced the historical roots of the present crisis. Dr. Vaez's book recommendation was Michael Morgan, The Final Act: The Helsinki Accords and the Transformation of the Cold War: https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691176062/the-final-act He also discussed Crisis Group's recent work on the Middle East's "1914 moment": https://www.crisisgroup.org/middle-east-north-africa/gulf-and-arabian-peninsula/iran/205-averting-middle-easts-1914-moment You can listen to the German Marshall Fund's "Out of Order" podcast here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/out-of-order/id1326893666 Music by Sam Kyzivat and Breakmaster Cylinder:  https://soundcloud.com/samkyzivat https://soundcloud.com/breakmaster-cylinder Production by Simon Close, Laura Rodriguez and Alistair Somerville Design by Sarah Diebboll Communications by Charlie Fritz and Laura Rodriguez https://cges.georgetown.edu/podcast Twitter and Instagram: @theeuropedesk If you would like a transcript of this episode, more information about the Center's events, or have any feedback, please email: theeuropedesk@gmail.com

The British Foreign Secretary has warned of the danger of Iran and the United States stumbling into a war by accident. And the signs are ominous: the US accelerated the deployment of an aircraft carrier and B52 bombers to the Persian Gulf and all non-essential staff are being withdrawn from the US Embassy in Baghdad. US National Security Adviser John Bolton said any attack by Iran on America or its allies would be met with what he called unrelenting force. So what's the risk of a war breaking out? David Aaronovitch is joined by: Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group Kori Schake of the International Institute for Strategic Studies Aniseh Barissi Tabrizi of the Royal United Services Institute Robert Cooper, former EU diplomat. Barbara Leaf, former US diplomat and State Department official

   Sunni insurgents operating in Iran's mostly lawless frontier with Pakistan are increasingly becoming more lethal in their attacks on Iranian security forces.  Joining The Crisis Next Door to examine the growing fight from Iran's Sunni population is Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director for the International Crisis Group. See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.