Podcasts about wti brent

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2020 46:14

Reaction to OPEC deal- Not what they wanted, clearly- US pledged to “cut” for Mexico? How does anyone even expect that to work?- Cuts take away from the narrative that demand is gone because governments shut down the economy.- Will this be significant 10-20 years later? Could we see this as the start of a more federal intervention and direction from the oil industry? - could anyone have foreseen that Mexico would hold up an OPEC+ deal? Stunning development. - TRC https://rrc.texas.gov/about-us/commissioners/sitton/news/041320a-commissioner-ryan-sitton-statement-in-advance-of-hearing/U.S., Saudi Arabia, Russia Lead Pact for Record Cuts in Oil Outputhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-allies-look-to-resolve-saudi-mexico-standoff-and-seal-broader-oil-deal-11586695794?Oil futures little changed despite record output cut by OPEC+https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-futures-little-changed-despite-record-output-cut-by-opec-idUSKCN21U0WQMexico’s secret weapon in the oil price warhttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/10/mexico-s-secret-weapon-in-the-oil-price-warTrump pledges to help Mexico meet output cuts sought by OPEChttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/trump-mexico-output-cuts-opec-179275https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/04/13/what-will-oil-autocrats-do-now-to-keep-power/#5e5070e63239Dr. Dean Foreman, API- Stunningly weak market in March for U.S. petroleum in API’s MSR- Data based on weekly surveys of 90% of industry- Weekly data has a lot of noise, but monthly data provides much more certainty.- DEmand is DOWN month on month by 900,000 bpd, and year on year 800,000 bpd- translates to 4-5 m bpd on global basis. This says that based on US data, gasoline down, jet fuel down (but surprising its not worse), diesel up between Feb and March (up month to month). Maybe the demand data aren’t as bad as everyone says?! Everyone is racing to the bottom with estimates and API says maybe demand isn’t so bad.- On supply side starting to see a response. Both EIA and API data show US production declined in March- Refineries turned the dial back- But storage doesn’t fill as fast if production (both crude and product) isn’t as much.- This is bad, but maybe its not as bad as we think- SPR storage being made available is helpful at the end of the value chain- WE normally see stock building in Feb and MArch, so question is how much did stocks rise compared to how much they normally rise- Because we are seeing responsiveness on supply side, the market is at work. Easy to take one data point and extrapolate but markets are actually responding to compensate.- Gets to the heart of the Texas pro-rationing issue - if you take a heavy, centralized hand to try and manage the market you may clip off the natural market fluctuations.- Larger decrease in reformulated gasoline than with conventional gasoline. Greater decrease in transportation in urban areas vs. rural areas. - WTI-Brent differential flip: Brent went lower than WTI because of discounts offered by OPEC producers to Asia and drove down Brent as opposed to market forces acting on WTI.- WHy was jet fuel only down 18% year on year in March? Pace of cancellations didn’t pick up until end of March. But also because freight flights picked up even though passenger flights were way, way down. North American foreign flights were up 4%.- TRC testimony: market is taking care of waste. Texas pro-ration would apply disproportionately to the most productive and efficient areas. Could have negative impacts to future if shut in. Could love productivity. On gas side there are signs that could lose permeability if shut in. Alberta example - in late 2018 when WCS was trading at 50% discount to WTI, they didn’t ride out the low prices and incentivize refiners to take the oil instead put into place pro-rations. For a couple months brought prices up (within 15% of WTI) but now its even worse and have foregone investment. Slippery slope, unintended consequences, drop in investment, etc.

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Episode 104 - Mexico brickwalls OPEC+ | Russia, US, KSA cooperate on oil | Dean Foreman

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 14, 2020 46:14

Reaction to OPEC deal- Not what they wanted, clearly- US pledged to “cut” for Mexico? How does anyone even expect that to work?- Cuts take away from the narrative that demand is gone because governments shut down the economy.- Will this be significant 10-20 years later? Could we see this as the start of a more federal intervention and direction from the oil industry? - could anyone have foreseen that Mexico would hold up an OPEC+ deal? Stunning development. - TRC https://rrc.texas.gov/about-us/commissioners/sitton/news/041320a-commissioner-ryan-sitton-statement-in-advance-of-hearing/U.S., Saudi Arabia, Russia Lead Pact for Record Cuts in Oil Outputhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-allies-look-to-resolve-saudi-mexico-standoff-and-seal-broader-oil-deal-11586695794?Oil futures little changed despite record output cut by OPEC+https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-futures-little-changed-despite-record-output-cut-by-opec-idUSKCN21U0WQMexico’s secret weapon in the oil price warhttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2020/4/10/mexico-s-secret-weapon-in-the-oil-price-warTrump pledges to help Mexico meet output cuts sought by OPEChttps://www.politico.com/news/2020/04/10/trump-mexico-output-cuts-opec-179275https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2020/04/13/what-will-oil-autocrats-do-now-to-keep-power/#5e5070e63239Dr. Dean Foreman, API- Stunningly weak market in March for U.S. petroleum in API’s MSR- Data based on weekly surveys of 90% of industry- Weekly data has a lot of noise, but monthly data provides much more certainty.- DEmand is DOWN month on month by 900,000 bpd, and year on year 800,000 bpd- translates to 4-5 m bpd on global basis. This says that based on US data, gasoline down, jet fuel down (but surprising its not worse), diesel up between Feb and March (up month to month). Maybe the demand data aren’t as bad as everyone says?! Everyone is racing to the bottom with estimates and API says maybe demand isn’t so bad.- On supply side starting to see a response. Both EIA and API data show US production declined in March- Refineries turned the dial back- But storage doesn’t fill as fast if production (both crude and product) isn’t as much.- This is bad, but maybe its not as bad as we think- SPR storage being made available is helpful at the end of the value chain- WE normally see stock building in Feb and MArch, so question is how much did stocks rise compared to how much they normally rise- Because we are seeing responsiveness on supply side, the market is at work. Easy to take one data point and extrapolate but markets are actually responding to compensate.- Gets to the heart of the Texas pro-rationing issue - if you take a heavy, centralized hand to try and manage the market you may clip off the natural market fluctuations.- Larger decrease in reformulated gasoline than with conventional gasoline. Greater decrease in transportation in urban areas vs. rural areas. - WTI-Brent differential flip: Brent went lower than WTI because of discounts offered by OPEC producers to Asia and drove down Brent as opposed to market forces acting on WTI.- WHy was jet fuel only down 18% year on year in March? Pace of cancellations didn’t pick up until end of March. But also because freight flights picked up even though passenger flights were way, way down. North American foreign flights were up 4%.- TRC testimony: market is taking care of waste. Texas pro-ration would apply disproportionately to the most productive and efficient areas. Could have negative impacts to future if shut in. Could love productivity. On gas side there are signs that could lose permeability if shut in. Alberta example - in late 2018 when WCS was trading at 50% discount to WTI, they didn’t ride out the low prices and incentivize refiners to take the oil instead put into place pro-rations. For a couple months brought prices up (within 15% of WTI) but now its even worse and have foregone investment. Slippery slope, unintended consequences, drop in investment, etc.

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Mickey Fulp's Monthly Major Market Review (March 2020) Special Post-Crash Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2020 23:51

What can you say about March as the global economy shut down purportedly due to the dreaded Wuhan Coronavirus. Stock markets further imploded from February down 20 to 35 percent. VIX or the fear index closed at 53.5 but went over 80. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits another all time low of .70 going down to .33. Bitcoin down another 21%. Gold fluctuated but closed out at .5 percent to 1577. Silver down another 16% to 13.93. PT down 16%. PD down 8% for the month. Copper down a massive 12.2% to 2.21. Energies totally destroyed yet again. WTI/Brent down 55/55%. Natgas down 2.4% to 1.64 per mm. Uranium up 8.6% after widespread mine closures. Ratios: Au/Ag 113.2 - Pt/Au .46 -Pt/Pd .32 -WT/HH 12.5 and AU/WTI an insane 77. Crazy numbers make for crazy markets and insane investors.

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Mickey Fulp's Monthly Major Market Review (March 2020) Special Post-Crash Edition

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 2, 2020 23:51

What can you say about March as the global economy shut down purportedly due to the dreaded Wuhan Coronavirus. Stock markets further imploded from February down 20 to 35 percent. VIX or the fear index closed at 53.5 but went over 80. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits another all time low of .70 going down to .33. Bitcoin down another 21%. Gold fluctuated but closed out at .5 percent to 1577. Silver down another 16% to 13.93. PT down 16%. PD down 8% for the month. Copper down a massive 12.2% to 2.21. Energies totally destroyed yet again. WTI/Brent down 55/55%. Natgas down 2.4% to 1.64 per mm. Uranium up 8.6% after widespread mine closures. Ratios: Au/Ag 113.2 - Pt/Au .46 -Pt/Pd .32 -WT/HH 12.5 and AU/WTI an insane 77. Crazy numbers make for crazy markets and insane investors.

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Blood in the Streets - Mickey Fulp's Monthly Major Market Review (Feb 2020)

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2020 22:24

DJIA 2/29/2020 25410 -10.1% S&P 500 2/29/2020 2954 -8.4% NASDAQ 2/29/2020 8567 -6.4% RUS 2000 2/29/2020 1476 -8.6% TSX 2/29/2020 16263 -6.1% TSX.V 2/29/2020 498 -13.4% MCSI 2/29/2020 1006 -5.3% VIX 2/29/2020 40.11 DXY 2/29/2020 98.18 -0.2% EURO 2/29/2020 1.10 -0.6% 10 Year 2/29/2020 1.13 -24.2% Bitcoin 2/29/2020 8060 -14.0% Au 2/29/2020 1585 -0.3% Ag 2/29/2020 16.58 -7.9% Pt 2/29/2020 862 -10.0% Pd 2/29/2020 2475 13.0% Cu 2/29/2020 2.51 -1.2% WTI 2/29/2020 45.26 -12.3% Brent 2/29/2020 50.52 -10.9% Henry Hub 2/29/2020 1.68 -8.7% U308 2/29/2020 24.90 0.8% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI 95.60 0.54 0.35 1.12 26.94 35.02 What can you say about February without getting sick to your stomach. The last week was a real sh-t show plain and simple Stock markets down from 5 to 13 percent in one week! VIX or the fear index closed at 40 but hit as high as 50. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits an all time low of 1.13. Bitcoin down 14%. Gold down .3 percent after hitting a 7 year high. Silver down 8%. PT down 10%. PD up 13% for the month but lost $300 on Friday. Copper down 1.2%. Energies totally destroyed. WTI/Brent down 10/13%. Natgas down nearly 9% to 1.67 per mm. Uranium flat. Ratios: Au/Ag 95.60 - Pt/Au .54 -Pt/Pd .35 -WT/HH 26.94. Crazy numbers for crazy markets.

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Blood in the Streets - Mickey Fulp's Monthly Major Market Review (Feb 2020)

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 3, 2020 22:24

DJIA 2/29/2020 25410 -10.1% S&P 500 2/29/2020 2954 -8.4% NASDAQ 2/29/2020 8567 -6.4% RUS 2000 2/29/2020 1476 -8.6% TSX 2/29/2020 16263 -6.1% TSX.V 2/29/2020 498 -13.4% MCSI 2/29/2020 1006 -5.3% VIX 2/29/2020 40.11 DXY 2/29/2020 98.18 -0.2% EURO 2/29/2020 1.10 -0.6% 10 Year 2/29/2020 1.13 -24.2% Bitcoin 2/29/2020 8060 -14.0% Au 2/29/2020 1585 -0.3% Ag 2/29/2020 16.58 -7.9% Pt 2/29/2020 862 -10.0% Pd 2/29/2020 2475 13.0% Cu 2/29/2020 2.51 -1.2% WTI 2/29/2020 45.26 -12.3% Brent 2/29/2020 50.52 -10.9% Henry Hub 2/29/2020 1.68 -8.7% U308 2/29/2020 24.90 0.8% Ratios Au : Ag Pt : Au Pt : Pd BRT : WTI WTI : HH AU:WTI 95.60 0.54 0.35 1.12 26.94 35.02 What can you say about February without getting sick to your stomach. The last week was a real sh-t show plain and simple Stock markets down from 5 to 13 percent in one week! VIX or the fear index closed at 40 but hit as high as 50. Currencies fairly flat for the month after a large rise and then fall in the USD. Looney and Aussie $ killed. 10 Year yield hits an all time low of 1.13. Bitcoin down 14%. Gold down .3 percent after hitting a 7 year high. Silver down 8%. PT down 10%. PD up 13% for the month but lost $300 on Friday. Copper down 1.2%. Energies totally destroyed. WTI/Brent down 10/13%. Natgas down nearly 9% to 1.67 per mm. Uranium flat. Ratios: Au/Ag 95.60 - Pt/Au .54 -Pt/Pd .35 -WT/HH 26.94. Crazy numbers for crazy markets.

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Insights on Trading Crude Oil - Tracy Shuchart

Limit Up!

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 18, 2019 31:24

This week Tracy Shuchart joins Eddie Horn as they dive into all the latest crude oil trading news. Tracy is an independent trader specializing in the energy markets. You can find her on twitter @chigrl and as a contributing expert at opportunistictrader.com. [01:44] What are your thoughts on where crude is moving? [05:51] Looking at technical analysis when deciding what to trade. [07:20] What type of trader best suits trading crude oil? [08:27] What’s the best time of day trade crude oil? [08:49] Tracy’s process for deciding her trade entries. [11:08] Should you trade based on comments/tweets? [13:41] Tracy’s thoughts on Saudi Arabia looking to leap the $50/$60/$70 barrels and to see a target $80? [15:22] How much of an impact does Russia really have on OPEC? [17:21] Tracy’s take on talk of Canadian reserves. [19:54] How closely do we need to watch weekly updates and government/cartel reports? [21:12] Why are the news wires expressing a slide in crude all the while we see WTI and Brent rising higher? Community Questions: [23:17] Do you prefer scalping or playing crude oil as a momentum play? [23:55] Do you actively look at the WTI/Brent spread or it's more of just a thing to observe nowadays? [24:20] How much do algorithms play a part in your trading, if any? [24:56] What are some of the other markets you trade and why? [25:40] Eddie Question: If you won 1 million dollars but must spend it in an hour, how would you spend it? Editing & Post-Production by Dante32

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Episode 41 - Goldman Sachs not worried about economy | Perry wants Russia & Saudi Arabia to up production | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2018 50:48

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/chances-of-economy-falling-into-a-recession-within-3-years-historically-lowgoldman.html?Does this mean Goldman Sachs sees oil demand continue in to rise? No threats to oil demand? Will they be making investments along these lines?https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-report/opec-sees-slower-2019-oil-demand-growth-warns-on-economy-idUSKCN1LS1QIHow much oil is in supply at the moment? How accurate are our measurements of supply? Lots of fudging going on. Companies cut budgets for exploration. Will we see that playing out in 2025?Perry-Novak-Al-Falihhttps://www.reuters.com/article/russia-usa-novak-perry-meeting/update-1-perry-encourages-saudi-opec-russia-to-work-against-oil-price-spike-idUSL5N1VZ64HPerry wants to see Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to keep a lid on prices, especially before the election. However, Saudi Arabia just said that they are ok with seeing oil prices rise above $80 in the near term.News: oil prices unchanged on mondayhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-steady-as-iran-sanction-fears-face-u-s-china-trade-tensions-idUSKCN1LX01VOil prices seems to have already baked in trade fears.https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2018/09/18/did-saudi-arabia-just-troll-elon-musks-tesla/Saudi Arabia invests $1 billion in EV start up Lucid just 1 month after Elon Musk claimed that he had secured funding for taking Tesla private from the Saudis.Interview with Dr. Foreman - Chief Economist APIwww.api.orgHow do you try to get a grasp of demand? Indicators?Look at outside sources. What we are seeing globally are projections from outside sources that suggest global demand for all oil liquids has exceeded 100 million barrels per day. US domestic data corroborates this.OPEC revised down its global demand figures for 2019 - this is a reflection of a more tame environmental. Indicative of higher prices. EIA sees continued growth. Consensus for economy is slower growth and with it slower growth in oil demand.US petroleum exports - observed setbacks in Q3Up until June huge progress in bringing down net imports of petroleum in US. Over last two months saw backsliding - both in crude oil and in products. Bigger change in August. Exports down 1.3 million barrels per day. Imports up as well.Likely due to souring trade relations but that’s not definitive. Need to see data on where oil is going. WTI/Brent spread widening may be a result of shifting crude trade due to Iran sanctions. If cause of WTI/Brent spread is buying patterns then it will normalize over time. But if widening is due mostly to decrease in WTI (which is due to infrastructure bottlenecks) then the differential will not resolve nearly as quickly.Where is natural gas right now? The market needs more markets!Impact of coal in emerging markets? China and India have tremendous coal resources domestically. Electrification of vehicle fleet is based on their ability to generate electricity from coal. Coal then becomes the key to the viability of their transportation system.

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Episode 41 - Goldman Sachs not worried about economy | Perry wants Russia & Saudi Arabia to up production | Dr. Dean Foreman with the API

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2018 50:48

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/17/chances-of-economy-falling-into-a-recession-within-3-years-historically-lowgoldman.html?Does this mean Goldman Sachs sees oil demand continue in to rise? No threats to oil demand? Will they be making investments along these lines?https://www.reuters.com/article/us-opec-report/opec-sees-slower-2019-oil-demand-growth-warns-on-economy-idUSKCN1LS1QIHow much oil is in supply at the moment? How accurate are our measurements of supply? Lots of fudging going on. Companies cut budgets for exploration. Will we see that playing out in 2025?Perry-Novak-Al-Falihhttps://www.reuters.com/article/russia-usa-novak-perry-meeting/update-1-perry-encourages-saudi-opec-russia-to-work-against-oil-price-spike-idUSL5N1VZ64HPerry wants to see Russia and Saudi Arabia increase production to keep a lid on prices, especially before the election. However, Saudi Arabia just said that they are ok with seeing oil prices rise above $80 in the near term.News: oil prices unchanged on mondayhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil/oil-steady-as-iran-sanction-fears-face-u-s-china-trade-tensions-idUSKCN1LX01VOil prices seems to have already baked in trade fears.https://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenrwald/2018/09/18/did-saudi-arabia-just-troll-elon-musks-tesla/Saudi Arabia invests $1 billion in EV start up Lucid just 1 month after Elon Musk claimed that he had secured funding for taking Tesla private from the Saudis.Interview with Dr. Foreman - Chief Economist APIwww.api.orgHow do you try to get a grasp of demand? Indicators?Look at outside sources. What we are seeing globally are projections from outside sources that suggest global demand for all oil liquids has exceeded 100 million barrels per day. US domestic data corroborates this.OPEC revised down its global demand figures for 2019 - this is a reflection of a more tame environmental. Indicative of higher prices. EIA sees continued growth. Consensus for economy is slower growth and with it slower growth in oil demand.US petroleum exports - observed setbacks in Q3Up until June huge progress in bringing down net imports of petroleum in US. Over last two months saw backsliding - both in crude oil and in products. Bigger change in August. Exports down 1.3 million barrels per day. Imports up as well.Likely due to souring trade relations but that’s not definitive. Need to see data on where oil is going. WTI/Brent spread widening may be a result of shifting crude trade due to Iran sanctions. If cause of WTI/Brent spread is buying patterns then it will normalize over time. But if widening is due mostly to decrease in WTI (which is due to infrastructure bottlenecks) then the differential will not resolve nearly as quickly.Where is natural gas right now? The market needs more markets!Impact of coal in emerging markets? China and India have tremendous coal resources domestically. Electrification of vehicle fleet is based on their ability to generate electricity from coal. Coal then becomes the key to the viability of their transportation system.

china interview news russia elon musk impact iran economy tesla companies production saudi arabia worried ev goldman sachs coal consensus opec lucid saudis imports exports electrification wti eia indicative dean foreman wti brent

Episode 30 - Harold Hamm pulls out of OPEC Seminar | OPEC meeting Previews | Watch for the Saudi/Russian bromance

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2018 43:57

Harold Hamm pulls out of OPEC Seminar: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-contl-resources/continental-resources-ceo-harold-hamm-pulls-out-of-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1JE1VWSeveral of the CEOs of American energy companies have decided not to attend the pre-OPEC meeting seminar organized by OPEC. Could this be to send a message to OPEC about the cartel's relevance (or non-relevance) to US energy producers? Hamm has met with OPEC oil ministers before in Houston. Other CEOs will still attend - Pioneer and Hess. Russian oil minister Alexander Novak also pulled out of his appearance and will not join OPEC in Vienna until later in the week.OPEC meeting Previewshttps://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/saudi-arabia-russia-say-oil-market-cooperation-21086527https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/16/russia-saudi-arabia-get-chummy-ahead-of-opec-may-affect-oil-prices.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-oil/trump-iran-spar-over-oil-prices-ahead-of-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1J91IDWatch for the Saudi/Russian bromance. Al Falih and Novak are looking to push through a production increase but Iran and Iraq claim to be dead set against it.Saudi - Russian relationship is key here - the two oil ministers even met to prepare tactics while Putin and Mohammad bin Salman watched the Saudi-Russia soccer match together (spoiler alert - Russia won 5-0!!!)Overview of OPEC's activities since November 2016 when the group (along with Russia and others) agreed to a cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day.Ellen's forecast: Probable agreement to increase production a total of between 300,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd with possibly 1 million bpd increase as high end.WTI/Brent spread is 10$ - How will this be impacted by an OPEC production increase?Will China try to use US oil exports as a bargaining chip in ongoing trade "negotiations"/trade war? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-oil-graphic/chinas-tariffs-on-u-s-oil-would-disrupt-1-billion-monthly-business-idUSKBN1JE0CDIndia informs its refiners that they will no longer be able to pay for Iranian oil in euros: http://www.asianage.com/business/in-other-news/150618/iran-oil-payment-route-to-be-blocked-from-november-3.html?__twitter_impression=trueEllen on Axios: https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-generate-6326df6a-3c6a-441b-ac1a-f794e178c0fd.htmlalso on Thomson Reuters: https://blogs.thomsonreuters.com/financial-risk/trading/opec-and-the-future-of-oil-production-cuts/

american china russia russian iran ceos vladimir putin iraq iranians pioneer seminar pulls novak opec hess axios bromance salman hamm thomson reuters probable harold hamm saudi russia saudi russian wti brent alexander novak

Episode 30 - Harold Hamm pulls out of OPEC Seminar | OPEC meeting Previews | Watch for the Saudi/Russian bromance

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 19, 2018 43:57

Harold Hamm pulls out of OPEC Seminar: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-contl-resources/continental-resources-ceo-harold-hamm-pulls-out-of-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1JE1VWSeveral of the CEOs of American energy companies have decided not to attend the pre-OPEC meeting seminar organized by OPEC. Could this be to send a message to OPEC about the cartel's relevance (or non-relevance) to US energy producers? Hamm has met with OPEC oil ministers before in Houston. Other CEOs will still attend - Pioneer and Hess. Russian oil minister Alexander Novak also pulled out of his appearance and will not join OPEC in Vienna until later in the week.OPEC meeting Previewshttps://www.platts.com/latest-news/oil/london/saudi-arabia-russia-say-oil-market-cooperation-21086527https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/16/russia-saudi-arabia-get-chummy-ahead-of-opec-may-affect-oil-prices.htmlhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-oil/trump-iran-spar-over-oil-prices-ahead-of-opec-meeting-idUSKBN1J91IDWatch for the Saudi/Russian bromance. Al Falih and Novak are looking to push through a production increase but Iran and Iraq claim to be dead set against it.Saudi - Russian relationship is key here - the two oil ministers even met to prepare tactics while Putin and Mohammad bin Salman watched the Saudi-Russia soccer match together (spoiler alert - Russia won 5-0!!!)Overview of OPEC's activities since November 2016 when the group (along with Russia and others) agreed to a cut production by 1.8 million barrels per day.Ellen's forecast: Probable agreement to increase production a total of between 300,000 bpd and 600,000 bpd with possibly 1 million bpd increase as high end.WTI/Brent spread is 10$ - How will this be impacted by an OPEC production increase?Will China try to use US oil exports as a bargaining chip in ongoing trade "negotiations"/trade war? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china-oil-graphic/chinas-tariffs-on-u-s-oil-would-disrupt-1-billion-monthly-business-idUSKBN1JE0CDIndia informs its refiners that they will no longer be able to pay for Iranian oil in euros: http://www.asianage.com/business/in-other-news/150618/iran-oil-payment-route-to-be-blocked-from-november-3.html?__twitter_impression=trueEllen on Axios: https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-generate-6326df6a-3c6a-441b-ac1a-f794e178c0fd.htmlalso on Thomson Reuters: https://blogs.thomsonreuters.com/financial-risk/trading/opec-and-the-future-of-oil-production-cuts/

american china russia russian iran ceos vladimir putin iraq iranians pioneer seminar pulls novak opec hess axios bromance salman hamm thomson reuters probable harold hamm saudi russia saudi russian wti brent alexander novak

Episode 29 - China and Iran Strengthen Ties | ExxonMobile & Plains partner on Permian pipeline | Markham Hislop on Trans-Mountain Pipeline

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2018 40:29

Check out DrillingInfo, our sponsor at: globalenergymedia.com/courthouseChina and Iran Strengthen TiesArticle from PlattsWill China be able to keep importing oil from Iran? Iran is the 6th largest supplier of oil to China, which is not an insignificant amount of oil.Potential for Trump to use Iran in negotiations with China over trade and North Korea. ExxonMobil and Plains to partner on Permian pipelinehttps://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Exxon-Mobil-Plains-partner-on-Permian-pipeline-12987234.phpExxon plans to triple its production of oil and gas by 2025. More pipeline capacity expected to come online in Permian such that there may even be excess capacity by 2020. How will this impact the WTI/Brent spread? Will it ever come back within the $3-$4 range?Canadian oil Production to Risehttps://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-oil-production-to-rise-despite-competitiveness-gap-industry-group-says-1.1091585#Industry group predicts an increase in Canadian oil production, particularly from Canadian oil sands regions. Expects to see increase of 1.4 million bpd by 2035.Interview with Markham Hislop, Energy Journalist and publisher of Energi.newsTrans-Mountain Pipeline project update5900 barrel capacity.Canadian system currently at capacity. Expansion was proposed in 2013, green lighted in 2016.Opposition originated in Vancouver area. Concern over spills in the city and in the inlet.Last summer, NPD government elected - ran against the Trans-Mountain pipeline specificallyBritish Columbia government delayed and delayed permitting until Kinder Morgan finally gave an ultimatum.Canadian government bought Kinder Morgan Canada's existing assets.Ellen's Articles:Sanctions or Self-Sabotage? The Story of Iran’s Oil Industry - http://bit.ly/2sV45uP8 Major Companies Still In Iran As U.S. Sanctions Inch Closer - http://bit.ly/2MqOhYO10 Companies Leaving Iran As Trump's Sanctions Close In - http://bit.ly/2Mp6HJi

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Episode 29 - China and Iran Strengthen Ties | ExxonMobile & Plains partner on Permian pipeline | Markham Hislop on Trans-Mountain Pipeline

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 13, 2018 40:29

Check out DrillingInfo, our sponsor at: globalenergymedia.com/courthouseChina and Iran Strengthen TiesArticle from PlattsWill China be able to keep importing oil from Iran? Iran is the 6th largest supplier of oil to China, which is not an insignificant amount of oil.Potential for Trump to use Iran in negotiations with China over trade and North Korea. ExxonMobil and Plains to partner on Permian pipelinehttps://www.chron.com/business/energy/article/Exxon-Mobil-Plains-partner-on-Permian-pipeline-12987234.phpExxon plans to triple its production of oil and gas by 2025. More pipeline capacity expected to come online in Permian such that there may even be excess capacity by 2020. How will this impact the WTI/Brent spread? Will it ever come back within the $3-$4 range?Canadian oil Production to Risehttps://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/canadian-oil-production-to-rise-despite-competitiveness-gap-industry-group-says-1.1091585#Industry group predicts an increase in Canadian oil production, particularly from Canadian oil sands regions. Expects to see increase of 1.4 million bpd by 2035.Interview with Markham Hislop, Energy Journalist and publisher of Energi.newsTrans-Mountain Pipeline project update5900 barrel capacity.Canadian system currently at capacity. Expansion was proposed in 2013, green lighted in 2016.Opposition originated in Vancouver area. Concern over spills in the city and in the inlet.Last summer, NPD government elected - ran against the Trans-Mountain pipeline specificallyBritish Columbia government delayed and delayed permitting until Kinder Morgan finally gave an ultimatum.Canadian government bought Kinder Morgan Canada's existing assets.Ellen's Articles:Sanctions or Self-Sabotage? The Story of Iran’s Oil Industry - http://bit.ly/2sV45uP8 Major Companies Still In Iran As U.S. Sanctions Inch Closer - http://bit.ly/2MqOhYO10 Companies Leaving Iran As Trump's Sanctions Close In - http://bit.ly/2Mp6HJi

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This Week in Futures Options 105: Ag Volatility Back in the Spotlight

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2018 70:14

Today's CME hot seat guests are Eric Baum, Senior Commodity Trader, and John Rothstein, Chief Operating Officer at Optiver US. Topics this week include: Ags Corn Soybeans Equities/RVX Crude/WTI Futures Options Feedback: Flash poll! Let's stick with our Volatility theme to round out the week. Quite simply - which product do you think has the highest 30-day implied Volatility? No cheating (or checking with your broker)! What does your gut tell you? VIX? Bitcoin? TSLA?RUSSELL2000? RUT? IWM? 34% - Tesla, TSLA 21% - VIX 35% - Bitcoin 10% - Russell 2000: E-mini, RUT Listener questions and comments: Question from Toni - I've been listening to TWIFO since the launch (along with Vol Views and Advisors Option). Thanks for so many hours of listening and learning. I think I have a problem with TWIFO though because you guys are slowly luring me to the "dark side" of Ag products. But I'm not really sure where to begin because I'm a complete novice when it comes to agriculture (mostly trade spy and single name equity options). Is there one product that you feel is the friendliest or the least intimidating for beginners? Also are there any good resources out there for budding Ag options traders? Question from JLM54 - See a lot of talk about spreads between similar commodities (WTI/Brent spread, KC wheat / Chicago wheat). What about spreads between different commodities that may move in accordance to similar fundamentals? Is anyone tracking these relationships (WTI/Gold, Gold/10yr)? Are there any relationships you watch regularly that are outside the established intra-commodity spreads?

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This Week in Futures Options 105: Ag Volatility Back in the Spotlight

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 11, 2018 70:14

Today's CME hot seat guests are Eric Baum, Senior Commodity Trader, and John Rothstein, Chief Operating Officer at Optiver US. Topics this week include: Ags Corn Soybeans Equities/RVX Crude/WTI Futures Options Feedback: Flash poll! Let's stick with our Volatility theme to round out the week. Quite simply - which product do you think has the highest 30-day implied Volatility? No cheating (or checking with your broker)! What does your gut tell you? VIX? Bitcoin? TSLA?RUSSELL2000? RUT? IWM? 34% - Tesla, TSLA 21% - VIX 35% - Bitcoin 10% - Russell 2000: E-mini, RUT Listener questions and comments: Question from Toni - I've been listening to TWIFO since the launch (along with Vol Views and Advisors Option). Thanks for so many hours of listening and learning. I think I have a problem with TWIFO though because you guys are slowly luring me to the "dark side" of Ag products. But I'm not really sure where to begin because I'm a complete novice when it comes to agriculture (mostly trade spy and single name equity options). Is there one product that you feel is the friendliest or the least intimidating for beginners? Also are there any good resources out there for budding Ag options traders? Question from JLM54 - See a lot of talk about spreads between similar commodities (WTI/Brent spread, KC wheat / Chicago wheat). What about spreads between different commodities that may move in accordance to similar fundamentals? Is anyone tracking these relationships (WTI/Gold, Gold/10yr)? Are there any relationships you watch regularly that are outside the established intra-commodity spreads?

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Best of This Week in Futures Options: Trump vs. Oil Traders

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2017 57:06

Originally posted on January 23, 2017, this "Best Of" This Week in Futures Options features Blu Putnam Chief Economist of CME Group. Topics in this episode include: The election, inauguration WTI/Brent spread QuikStrike Future Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Jeff Myers: What is the prediction for platinum options? Question from Eddy: Is the trade in crude more cautious right now, or are the bulls all in? Is it an all-in trade? Question from Sean: When it come to currency options, is there a market, like Euro, that trades more smoothly?

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Best of This Week in Futures Options: Trump vs. Oil Traders

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 17, 2017 57:06

Originally posted on January 23, 2017, this "Best Of" This Week in Futures Options features Blu Putnam Chief Economist of CME Group. Topics in this episode include: The election, inauguration WTI/Brent spread QuikStrike Future Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Jeff Myers: What is the prediction for platinum options? Question from Eddy: Is the trade in crude more cautious right now, or are the bulls all in? Is it an all-in trade? Question from Sean: When it come to currency options, is there a market, like Euro, that trades more smoothly?

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This Week in Futures Options 39: Thank Trump for the WTI-Brent Spread

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2017 47:37

Topics this week include: WTI/Brent spread Gold Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from JVIL: Can we get an update on corn? Question from Alan Mayne: What's it going to take to bump WTI volatility back into the 2016 range? Question from TLOCA4: How do I find the quickskew setting on quikstrike? I checked www.cmegroup.com/twio and I can't find it. Am I on the right page?

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This Week in Futures Options 39: Thank Trump for the WTI-Brent Spread

Oil and Gas This Week Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 6, 2017 47:37

Topics this week include: WTI/Brent spread Gold Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from JVIL: Can we get an update on corn? Question from Alan Mayne: What's it going to take to bump WTI volatility back into the 2016 range? Question from TLOCA4: How do I find the quickskew setting on quikstrike? I checked www.cmegroup.com/twio and I can't find it. Am I on the right page?

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First Friday Q&A on Oil & Gas This Week – OGTW099

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 5, 2017 35:38

Thanks for tuning in to Episode 99! We’re almost to triple digits and it’s all because of you guys! We sincerely appreciate every single one of you. Without your support, this would just be us talking to each other. Like always, the first Friday of the Month is our First Friday Q&A where we give you guys the opportunity to ask us whatever you would like and we take a stab at answering it. Remember – if you like the show, please leave us a review! Have a question? Click here to ask. Show Notes & Links: 2017 on the road sponsor Lee Hecht Harrison http://www.lhh.com As global experts in talent management, LHH is currently helping 75% of the Fortune 500 Oil & Gas companies simplify the complexity of leadership and workforce transformation. Geoconvention: May 15-19 Calgary, Canada OGTW listener special – Exhibitors standard 10×10 space on the floor for a reduced rate of $1,600 (normal price is $1,800). For more information email Dustin – dustin@geoconvention.com Jab, Jab, Jab, Right Hook by Gary Vaynerchuk Join API-YP OGGN LinkedIn Group OGGN Facebook Questions: Hey Mark and Jake, huge fan of the podcast. I'm in renewables right now but am closely following the petroleum sector. I'm going to take a guess and say that the rising rig count in the US coupled with OPEC production cuts is going to narrow the delta between OPEC Basket and WTI/Brent crude. With changes like these in the market, do you think it will be profitable for our downstream to start moving it's focus away from refining heavier (Middle East) oil, and move towards refining more of our own, lighter/domestic crudes. Thank you for an excellent pod cast. You guys do a great job providing a diverse and informed overview of the oil and gas industry. It’s a great way to stay up to speed with moves in the industry. In your podcast #92 around 10 minutes into the show you mentioned a standardization memorandum of understanding that was signed in Q3 between some of the operators. Our team is working on a project with one of the major subsea EPC companies to achieve this standardization. Is there any chance you can help me get my hands on this MoU or point me towards someone who can help me find this? Thanks again and good work gents. It’s always a pleasure to listen to your weekly podcast – consistently good insights and dynamic discussion about the ever changing dynamics of the oil and gas business. I’m a second year master’s student at Columbia University, specializing in the intersection of global macroeconomic trends and oil/gas markets. I, along with a host of other folks in my program, are eyeing oil and gas careers and I thought it would be great to engage you guys and possibly arrange for some kind of meeting to discuss the business in general, as well as possible career paths and strategies for students in my program. Your career insights would be very helpful to us all! I’d be eager to start a dialogue with you guys and perhaps host you for a visit at Columbia University. Look forward to hearing back. All the best. Big fan of the show but unfortunately your podcast has stopped adding new episo...

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This Week in Futures Options 38: Short-Term Options Palooza- Crude, Gold, Indexes and More

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2017 60:05

Topics this week include: WTI/Brent spread QuikSkew Gold Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Sellopod - Why do you not promote or discuss the liquidity and cost-effectiveness for the end user of the big S&P option pit? Question from Angelo - I day-trade futures. What are your thoughts on trading options intraday?

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This Week in Futures Options 38: Short-Term Options Palooza- Crude, Gold, Indexes and More

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 30, 2017 60:05

Topics this week include: WTI/Brent spread QuikSkew Gold Futures Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Sellopod - Why do you not promote or discuss the liquidity and cost-effectiveness for the end user of the big S&P option pit? Question from Angelo - I day-trade futures. What are your thoughts on trading options intraday?

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This Week in Futures Options 37: Trump vs Oil Traders

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2017 57:06

Today, Nick and Mark are joined by Blu Putnam Chief Economist of CME Group. Topics this week include: The election, inauguration WTI/Brent spread QuikStrike Future Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Jeff Myers: What is the prediction for platinum options? Question from Eddy: Is the trade in crude more cautious right now, or are the bulls all in? Is it an all-in trade? Question from Sean: When it come to currency options, is there a market, like Euro, that trades more smoothly?

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This Week in Futures Options 37: Trump vs Oil Traders

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 23, 2017 57:06

Today, Nick and Mark are joined by Blu Putnam Chief Economist of CME Group. Topics this week include: The election, inauguration WTI/Brent spread QuikStrike Future Options Feedback: Listener questions and comments Question from Jeff Myers: What is the prediction for platinum options? Question from Eddy - Is the trade in crude more cautious right now, or are the bulls all in? Is it an all-in trade? Question from Sean - When it come to currency options, is there a market, like Euro, that trades more smoothly?

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This Week in Futures Options 36: The Raging Brent WTI Spread Battle

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2017 57:58

In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, your hosts discuss: What in the heck is happening in the WTI/Brent spread? The crazy trade of the week The QuikSkew view What's happening in WTI volatility? Futures options feedback: What do you want the hosts to discuss? Roger asks, why can't I find a broker that offers trading on ethanol options? #sad #mad Cooper wants to know about copper. Real Justin thinks gold will continue to run up until the inauguration.

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This Week in Futures Options 36: The Raging Brent WTI Spread Battle

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 17, 2017 57:58

In this episode of This Week in Futures Options, your hosts discuss: What in the heck is happening in the WTI/Brent spread? The crazy trade of the week The QuikSkew view What's happening in WTI volatility? Futures options feedback: What do you want the hosts to discuss? Roger asks, why can't I find a broker that offers trading on ethanol options? #sad #mad Cooper wants to know about copper. Real Justin thinks gold will continue to run up until the inauguration.

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This Week in Futures Options: The WTI/Brent Spread Battle

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2016 50:16

Topics today include: Crude Oil/WTI The spread between Brent and WTI The crazy trade of the week Eurodollars Futures Options Feedback: Your questions, our answers #QuestionOfTheWeek: Financial advisors represent the last options frontier. What level of options knowledge do you expect from your advisor? None - I'll do it myself Level 1: Buy Puts/Calls Level 2: Income & Vol Level 3:Option Specialist Question from Vegan - You mentioned the Fed with regards to equities. Should the Fed really care about what market is doing?

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This Week in Futures Options: The WTI/Brent Spread Battle

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 19, 2016 50:16

Topics today include: Crude Oil/WTI The spread between Brent and WTI The crazy trade of the week Eurodollars Futures Options Feedback: Your questions, our answers #QuestionOfTheWeek: Financial advisors represent the last options frontier. What level of options knowledge do you expect from your advisor? None - I'll do it myself Level 1: Buy Puts/Calls Level 2: Income & Vol Level 3:Option Specialist Question from Vegan - You mentioned the Fed with regards to equities. Should the Fed really care about what market is doing?

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Futures Options Roundtable 13: Hot Oil Action