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The Strait of Hormuz authority rejected US claims and said the waterway remains blocked until Iran's conditions are met, according to Press TV.USD/JPY saw a bout of mild pressure late in the session after Bloomberg sources said that the Takaichi government is said to support a faster BoJ rate hike.US equity futures mixed, with the NQ giving back some of Wednesday's gains.DXY flat; NOK softens as the Norges Bank leaves rates unchanged but signalled progress on inflation.Fixed income benchmarks muted heading into US PPI and a US 30-year auction.Energy benchmarks steadily fall as geopolitical headlines quieten down.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/08), PPI (Jul). Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Barkin. Supply from the US. Earnings from Applied Materials.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Pakistan's Foreign Ministry said it continues to activate direct and indirect diplomatic channels between the US and Iran and that they are working to bring both sides to the negotiating table in Islamabad.US equity futures gain, with outperformance in NQ futures following stellar SMCI and CRWV earnings.DXY muted; low-yielding funders modestly weaker as JPY shorts are relocated.Fixed income benchmarks slightly firmer on light volume ahead of the key US CPI report.Crude choppy amid a lack of tangible US-Iran updates.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jul), OPEC MOMR, and supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council said the Strait of Hormuz would not open until the US accepts Iran's conditions.Crude futures edged higher amid the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty; spot gold reclaimed USD 4,400/oz to the upside.APAC stocks traded mixed amid geopolitical uncertainty, earnings releases and as participants await US CPI data; Europe is set for a flat open.DXY traded little changed as markets await US inflation data over the next couple of days and in the absence of any major fresh catalysts.10yr UST futures traded little changed following the prior day's rebound despite continued upside in oil.Looking ahead, highlights include German/Italian CPI Final (Jul), US CPI (Jul), IEA OMR, OPEC MOMR, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said, regarding potential escalation with Iran, that it is certainly possible and still has the ability to escalate.US President Trump, responding to Iran's requests for compensation during the conflict, said he was demanding compensation from Iran.RBA maintained rates as expected and kept a hawkish tone, but trimmed its CPI forecasts; AUD saw mild pressure. APAC stocks traded mixed following a lacklustre lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open.DXY traded little changed, 10yr UST futures remained subdued, Crude futures held on to the prior day's spoils after rallying by more than 5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Existing Home Sales (Jul), Comments from RBA's Governor Bullock, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Supermicro & CoreWeave.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Axios that they are only semi-negotiating with Iran but said it will work out and that it always works out.Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal, end to proxy warfare.Saudi Arabia put out a fire at its Jazan plant early on Sunday, while Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for the attack on the refinery.APAC stocks were somewhat mixed, but with most major indices in the green, US equity futures were range-bound; European equity futures indicate a flat market open.DXY eked mild gains, 10yr UST futures lacked direction, crude futures gapped higher at the open as an Iran-Oman deal on the Strait of Hormuz remained elusive.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian Inflation (Jul). Earnings from Berkshire Hathaway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump told Axios that they are only semi-negotiating with Iran but said it will work out and that it always works out.Iran's Supreme National Security Council issued six demands to the US, including total force withdrawal, end to proxy warfare.Iran's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said Iran is currently focused on the Strait of Hormuz rather than resuming negotiations with the US, while adding that talks with Oman are constructive and positiveUS equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming as strong TSMC July revenue lifts tech names.DXY slightly firmer; JPY reverses post-NFP gains despite hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions.Fixed income flat; Energy benchmarks slightly firmer as Iran issues demands.Looking ahead, highlights include comments from Fed's Hammack.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and said the Strait of Hormuz is sort of open right now; Trump conducted a phone call with the Saudi Crown Prince.Oman and Iran reached an agreement over the Strait of Hormuz, according to MS Now citing two Middle East diplomats, although the diplomats declined to describe the details of the temporary agreement or what issues remain unresolved.A strategic plan for managing the Strait of Hormuz would reportedly prohibit the passage of vessels belonging to the US, Israel and other hostile countries through the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks ultimately traded mixed following the weak lead from Wall Street; European equity futures indicate a mildly lower cash market open.DXY took a breather, 10yr UST futures remained lacklustre, and Crude futures extended on the prior day's rally.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (Jun), Trade Balance (Jun), French Trade Balance (Jun), US Jobs Report (Jul), Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Ivey PMI (Jul), NY Fed SCE (Jul), Fed's Barkin. Credit Ratings include S&P on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump thinks the war with Iran will end pretty soon and said the Strait of Hormuz is sort of open right now.US equity futures mixed, with NQ futures outperforming following strong MCHP earnings.DXY muted; EUR unreactive following German trade data.USTs flat ahead of the US jobs report, NFP expected at 85K.Energy benchmarks rangebound as markets await official details on the Hormuz agreement.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Jul), Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Ivey PMI (Jul), NY Fed SCE (Jul), Comments from Fed's Barkin. Credit Ratings include S&P on Switzerland.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad framework for Strait of Hormuz reopening talks, Al Arabiya sources report. An announcement could come in days but the agreement still needs the approval of Iran's National Security Council.US VP Vance said negotiations with Iran will take some time and that talks with Iran were 'messy', but will land in a 'good' place for the US.US equity futures are mixed, with NQ underperforming as SanDisk falls as revenue guidance missed estimates.DXY muted; SEK benefits from hotter-than-expected inflation.Fixed income benchmarks in modestly narrow ranges; Crude benchmarks are essentially flat, with focus remaining on a potential Hormuz announcement.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (Aug/01), Revelio PLS (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), CNB Policy Announcement (Aug), Banxico Policy Announcement (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Musalem. Earnings from ConocoPhillips & Fiserv.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are moving along very nicely regarding Iran, and we will know in 48 hours about Iran.Axios reported that the proposed deal would route inbound Gulf traffic through Iranian waters and outbound traffic through Omani waters for 60 days, with no fees and the central lane cleared of mines within 30 days ahead of a permanent arrangement.Yemen's Houthis said they attacked a vessel in the Red Sea, attacked a Saudi oil tanker off the Yanbu and stated operations will continue and escalate in targeting Saudi oil tankers.US equity futures are mixed, with AMD and SPCX weighing on the NQ.DXY flat, NZD underperforms after weak employment data.Energy benchmarks climb as markets await for a potential agreement over the Strait of Hormuz.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change (Jul), S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jul), ISM Services PMI (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jul), US Treasury QRA/Press Conference, BCB Policy Announcement (Aug). Speakers include Fed's Cook. Earnings from Eli Lilly, Uber, Walt Disney & SanDisk.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

A US base in Kuwait was reportedly struck; UKMTO received a report of an incident 20 nautical miles northeast of Oman's Al Khasab. Additionally, a dry bulk carrier was reportedly hit by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian President said Tehran would defend its borders but does not seek to expand the war, according to state media.10yr JGB futures saw two-way trade, in which it briefly fell over 60 ticks on a weak 10yr JGB auction, before trimming losses.US equity futures are modestly higher, with PLTR and ON benefiting from strong earnings.DXY regains the 100.00 handle, USD/JPY nears 158.00 as 155.00 becomes the new floor.Energy benchmarks continue to climb amid US-Iran uncertainty.Looking ahead, highlights include US/Canadian Trade Balance (Jun), US JOLTS (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), New Zealand Jobs Report (Q2). Comments from Fed's Paulson. Earnings from Pfizer, Caterpillar, Merck, AMD & SpaceX.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced over the weekend that he cancelled strikes on Iran at the request of Tehran and other Middle East countries, subject to making a rapid deal (Brent -4.7%).Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with Oman are progressing, with the two sides holding constructive talks on a new framework and exchanging maps over the past seven to eight days for review.Japan's Finance Ministry said it conducted coordinated yen-buying intervention with the US on Friday and won't hesitate to conduct further forex intervention with the US (USD/JPY -0.3%).US equity futures gain given the slump in energy prices; BMY (+7% pre-market) benefits on an FT report of a potential AZN merger.DXY unchanged, JPY outperforms while EUR little changed following downside revisions to manufacturing PMIs.Looking ahead, highlights include US S&P Manufacturing PMI Final (Jul), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q3), and US Treasury Financing Estimates. Earnings from Palantir and ONSemi.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr03/08 - Bolsa 0%. DIRR +3% e PRIO -4% Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado da Levante, com Flávio Conde, hoje é 2a. feira, dia 3 de agosto, e bolsas subindo nos EUA com petróleo -5% porque Trump parou de atacar o Irã e dólar R$ 5,08O Ibovespa (IBOV) oscilou bem hoje, ficando a maior parte do tempo no campo negativo perto de -0,50%, e fechando na estabilidade dos 178 mil pontos com volume não divulgado ainda. Nos EUA, as bolsas subiram com Dow Jones: +1,32%, e Nasdaq: +2,13% com investidores animados com o fato do presidente Trump ter desistido de atacar o Irã no fim de semana e ter indicado a possibilidade negociações com a Guarda Revolucionária do Irã (GRI) ter levado o petróleo cair -5%. Os setores de serviços de comunicação e tecnologia foram os principais impulsionadores da alta do mercado. A Meta Platforms teve um aumento de 6% no dia. A Amazon também subiu mais de 4%, atingindo um recorde de US$ 3 trilhões em valor de mercado e fechando em uma nova máxima. A Nvidia por sua vez, teve um aumento de quase 3%, enquanto a Alphabet e a Microsoft subiram cerca de 5% cada.Já o dólar à vista encerrou as negociações a R$ 5,087, com alta de 0,33% em dia de queda de mais de 4% do petróleo e baixa liquidez. Nos EUA, o dólar subiu levemente, 0,05%, frente as moedas fortes do DXY.Os juros finalmente caíram no Brasil influenciados pela projeção de Selic a 13,75%, pela pesquisa Focus do Banco Central, e queda dos juros das Treasuries americanas. Os prefixados de 2037 fecharam a 14,54% x 14,80% a.a., sexta. O IPCA+ 2037 fechou em 7,86% x 8,01% a.a., sexta. Nos EUA, as taxas de juros das Treasuries de 10 anos caíram para 4,68% a.a. x 4,74% a.a., sexta, e o 30 anos recuou para 5,22% a.a. x 5,28%, sexta.Por aqui, o mercado consolidou a aposta de corte de 25 pontos-base na taxa Selic pelo Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom) do Banco Central. A curva a termo precifica praticamente 100% de probabilidade de redução na Selic próxima quarta-feira (5).Veja no vídeo as análises e recomendações do analista CNPI Flávio

Pakistani Foreign Ministry Spokesperson said discussions between Tehran and Washington are ongoing regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation, Al Jazeera reported.Al Arabiya added that tangible results have not yet yielded results (Brent -0.1%)US equity futures are firmer across the board despite contrasting Meta (-8.8% pre-market) and Microsoft (+8.8% pre-market) earnings.DXY rebounds following the FOMC-induced losses, with focus now on PCE and GDP metrics.Fixed income benchmarks are lower across the board; BoE policy announcement awaits. Looking ahead, highlights include German Inflation Flash (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple & Amazon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Fed maintained rates, though with 3 dissenters who favoured a 25bps hike. Chair Warsh said that if inflation remains elevated, rates could be part of fixing that.DXY came under pressure as the Fed failed to match hawkish expectations, though Warsh's press conference triggered pronounced UST curve steepening.US CENTCOM announced its forces successfully completed a heavy wave of strikes against Iran; Jordan intercepted five missiles launched by Iran.US after-market earnings saw results from ARM Holdings (-5.7%), Microsoft (+8.9%), Meta Platforms (-7.5%) and QUALCOMM (-4.7%).APAC stocks were mostly lower; European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open. Looking ahead, highlights include French GDP Prelim (Q2), Spanish GDP Flash (Q2), Inflation Prelim (Jul), German GDP Flash (Q2), State/Nationwide Inflation Flash (Jul), Italian GDP (Q2), EU GDP Flash (Q2), Consumer Confidence Final (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), PCE (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/25), Personal Spending (Jun), Chicago Fed Labor Market Indicators (Jul), BoE Policy Announcement & MPR (Jul). Speakers include BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Bristol Myers Squibb, Mastercard, Apple, Amazon, Adidas, BMW, Leonardo, Renault, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, SocGen, BAE Systems, British American Tobacco, Shell & Rolls-Royce.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US CENTCOM said IRGC forces launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran towards US forces based in Jordan.Saudi Arabia's Defence Ministry said air defences intercepted and destroyed several drones, which had attempted to target petroleum facilities in the Eastern Region.US CENTCOM later announced that US and Saudi forces conducted strikes on Iran-backed terrorist sites in Iraq.Crude futures climbed as geopolitical tensions escalated (Brent Oct +2.8%); APAC was choppy, and sentiment deteriorated; Europe looks ahead to a subdued open.US equity futures, DXY, T-Note futures, and spot gold trade sideways ahead of FOMC.Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish GDP Flash (Q2), ECB Wage Tracker, US Atlanta Fed GDP, Fed Policy Announcement (Jul), BoC Minutes (Jul), Speakers including Fed Chair Warsh & RBA's Hunter, Supply from Germany, Earnings from SoFi, Microsoft, Meta, Arm, Qualcomm, L'Oreal, Hermes, Airbus, Porsche AG, BASF, UBS & Standard Chartered.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crude futures are firmer after gapping higher overnight on escalating geopolitics, with Iran striking a US base in Jordan and subsequent US-Saudi strikes on Iranian-backed militia.European Bourses began the session on a softer footing but remain relatively resilient to the firmer oil prices and prior APAC weakness, with earnings also providing somewhat of a cushion/impetus in the absence of macro updates.US equity futures are modestly firmer (ES +0.2%, NQ +0.2%), supported by the KOSPI rebound, with focus firmly on the Fed decision.DXY is relatively uneventful, USTs are modestly softer, and precious metals are firmer but to varying degrees ahead of the FOMC. Looking ahead, highlights include the Fed Policy Announcement (Jul), BoC Minutes (Jul). Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh & RBA's Hunter. Earnings from SoFi, Microsoft, Meta, Arm, Qualcomm.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses began the session firmer despite sharp tech-induced losses in APAC. Oman is said to have presented to Iran a proposal for a joint regional mechanism to manage the Strait of Hormuz with "voluntary fees"; Iran is reportedly demonstrating 'flexibility' over Hormuz Strait operations.Crude futures are softer amid continued efforts to end the US-Iran war, and with the pause in strikes at day three. DXY was directionless throughout most of the morning before edging higher in recent trade, with the FOMC looming on Wednesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Goods Trade Balance Advance (Jun), Retail Inventories Ex Autos Advance (Jun), Wholesale Inventories Advance (Jun), Consumer Confidence, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2). Supply from the US. Earnings from PayPal, Boeing, and Ford.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said Iran is talking to the US about making a deal right now and very friendly talks are ongoing, while he added they will end Iran's nuclear threat very quickly and that Iran is behaving again.US President Trump said Iran wanted to meet and that "we're meeting," while he added there is a chance a deal could be reached.APAC stocks were mostly negative amid a tech bloodbath and competition concerns following reports yesterday that China had started mass production of domestically developed DUV lithography equipment.DXY traded little changed, 10yr UST futures traded range-bound, and Crude futures remained subdued overnight.European equity futures indicate a flat cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures little changed after the cash market closed flat on Monday.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish Retail Sales (Jun), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Goods Trade Balance Advance (Jun), Retail Inventories Ex Autos Advance (Jun), Wholesale Inventories Advance (Jun), Consumer Confidence, Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Supply from UK, Italy, Netherlands & US, Earnings from PayPal, Boeing, UPS, Ford, EssilorLuxottica, Kering, Air Liquide, Eni, Barclays, GSK & Unilever.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are firmer following a similar APAC lead, as oil prices and yields slumped on the lack of US-Iran weekend action.Crude oil and gas futures were weighed down by the US not striking Iran over the weekend. Metals benefit across the board.However, US CENTCOM commander Cooper advised the Pentagon and the White House that the next possible step is to return to a large-scale military operation.Fixed income markets are higher; US focus turns to supply & midterms. No move to German Ifo or ECB speak. In FX, the DXY is softer to the benefit of G10 peers, although petro-currencies fail to benefit.Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods Orders (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2). Supply from the US. Earnings from LVMH. Comments from US President Trump.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr27/07 - BOLSA +0,80%, PRIO -5%, RECV -3% e PETR -3% Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado da Levante, com Flávio Conde, hoje é 2a. feira, dia 27 de julho, e o dia voltou a ser de altas nas bolsas do mundo.. O Ibovespa subiu +0,80%, aos 175.431 pontos, com volume melhorando de quase R$ 20 bi, bem acima dos R$ 14 bi da segunda passada, mas abaixo dos R$ 27 bi do 1T26, quando a bolsa subia na direção dos 200 mil pontos. O índice teria avançado mais se Petrobras não tivesse caído -3% por conta do petróleo.O comportamento do petróleo foi o grande detonador da melhora nas bolsas globais, pois o Brent caiu -9% para US$ 88 de US$ 97, na sexta, com a decisão dos EUA e Irã pararem os ataques nessa segunda, mesmo com Teerã negando acordo para um cessar-fogo de 10 dias. Nos EUA, os índices tiveram performances opostas com Dow Jones subindo +0,51% devido à queda do petróleo e Nasdaq caindo -0,18% com ações de semicondutores recuando entre -2% e -5% porque parte dos investidores desconfiam que as ações já subiram muito esse ano e resolveram diminuir posições ou mesmo zerá-las.No Brasil. o dólar à vista terminou as negociações a R$ 5,1122, em alta de 0,62%, devido a combinação de queda do petróleo, pesquisas eleitorais, perspectiva de gastos públicos altos, e dólar norte-americano em leve alta frente o DXY (índice do dólar x seis moedas fortes) em +0,04%, aos 101,52 pontos.Finalmente, os juros cederam um pouco depois de subirem até quinta-feira. Os prefixados de 2037 fecharam a 14,75% x 14,76%, sexta, e 14,82%, quinta. O IPCA+ 2037 fechou em 7,94% x 7,98%, sexta, e 8,01%, quinta. Nos EUA, as taxas de juros das Treasuries de 10 anos cederam mais para 4,65% a.a. x 4,68%, sexta, e 4,70%, quinta.Veja no vídeo mais análises de ações com Flávio Conde

US and Iran continued to exchange strikes, with CENTCOM conducting a 13th night of attacks on Iranian military targets; US President Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement but is not yet ready.Iran reportedly rejected a US ceasefire proposal presented by Iraq's PM, while Tehran also refused to amend a separate 10-day ceasefire plan linked to discussions over the Strait of Hormuz.The Trump administration imposed new tariffs of 10%-12.5% on imports from 60 countries over claims that they had failed to prevent forced labour.APAC stocks followed Wall Street lower, DXY mildly softened, 10yr UST futures remained near contract lows, and crude futures slightly pulled back after Brent rose above USD 100/bbl.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1%;Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Jul), German GfK Consumer Confidence (Aug), UK Retail Sales (Jun), Canadian PPI (Jun), BoE DMP (Jul). Comments from ECB's Lane. Scope Ratings update on Norway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US and Iran continued to exchange strikes, with CENTCOM conducting a 13th night of attacks on Iranian military targets; US President Trump said Iran wants to reach an agreement but is not yet ready.Iran reportedly rejected a US ceasefire proposal presented by Iraq's PM, while Tehran also refused to amend a separate 10-day ceasefire plan linked to discussions over the Strait of Hormuz.The Trump administration imposed new tariffs of 10-12.5% on imports from 60 countries over claims that they had failed to prevent forced labour.US equity futures are entirely in the green, supported by the upbeat beat mood in Europe while lower oil prices are also supporting indices (Brent -3.5%).DXY rangebound; Antipodeans outperform amid the risk-on tone, while EUR helped by positive flash PMIs.Fixed income benchmarks helped by the lower crude prices.Looking ahead, highlights include US Flash PMIs (Jul), Canadian PPI (Jun). Comments from ECB's Lane. Scope Ratings update on Norway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US Secretary of State Rubio said Iran was intending to double missile stockpile and that it looks like Iran is not ready to make a deal. He added that the price on Iran will get higher every night until they come to their senses but that Iran is begging to reach a deal.Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis. US equity futures are softer across the board as Alphabet raises AI Capex guidance and STMicroelectronics misses Q3 revenue guidance estimates.DXY rangebound, AUD outperforms after a strong jobs report. Fixed income lower but off worst levels as energy prices continue to drive price action (Brent +4.5%).Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul). Policy Announcements from the ECB, CBRT, and SARB. Comments from ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the US. Earnings from Intel, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin & SAP.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US and Iran exchanged strikes for the 12th consecutive night; US President Trump said Iran is getting hit so hard and that they want to make a deal.Yemeni Houthis targeted two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, while reports noted that at least 9 ships have stopped passing through Bab al-Mandeb, following the blockade on Saudi ports by Houthis.Alphabet (GOOGL) shares fell -3.3%, Tesla (TSLA) slipped over 4%, and IBM (IBM) was modestly softer post-earnings.APAC stocks were predominantly in the green, DXY mildly softened, 10yr UST futures lingered near the prior day's trough, and crude futures extended gains.European equity futures indicate a slightly lower cash market open, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.3%.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (May), US Initial Jobless Claims (Jul/18), Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jul). Policy Announcements from the ECB, CBRT, and SARB. Comments from ECB President Lagarde. Supply from the UK & the US. Earnings from Intel, Blackstone, Lockheed Martin, RTX, TotalEnergies, Thales, SAP & Repsol.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US CENTCOM said forces conducted the 11th consecutive night of strikes against Iran; US Secretary of State Rubio said the US is committed to diplomacy in the Middle East and Iran.Iran's top joint military command warned that all interests of the US and its allies in the region will be targeted if the US attacks Iran's nuclear sites.US is to impose new tariffs on dozens of countries as Trump's 10% global levy is set to expire, according to AFP citing USTR Greer.APAC stocks traded mostly in the green, DXY slightly pulled back, 10yr UST futures lingered near yesterday's lows, Crude futures mildly extended their gains.European equity futures indicate a slightly positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.1%.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Inflation (Jun), Supply from Germany & the US, Earnings from Tesla, Alphabet, and IBM.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US is reportedly demanding a longer ceasefire and partial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, i24 reported. The report added that Iran proposed the 10-day ceasefire.US equity futures firmer, benefiting from the rebound in chip and memory names. DXY slightly softer; Kiwi outperforms following hotter-than-expected CPI.Fixed income benchmarks muted; gilts unreactive despite the appointment of Healey as Chancellor.Crude benchmarks rangebound as sirens continue to sound across the Gulf.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement (Jul). Earnings from General Motors & 3M.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran said it has suspended the implementation of the MoU, suggesting that the US had “violated” commitments within the framework; Brent +2.4%.US and Iran continued to exchange strikes; Iran killed two US service members in Jordan and one in Iraq. The US continued to target Iranian military capabilities. US is said to be planning for a wider war, according to a US official, cited by the Washington Post. APAC stocks were mixed; tech underperformance weighed on the KOSPI. European equity futures are indicative of a flat open. DXY traded steady; Antipodeans led the gains, whilst the CHF and JPY were flat. Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (Jun), New Zealand Inflation (Q2).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said negotiations with the US could be pursued based on national interests and will not abandon talks with the US.US and Iran continued to exchange strikes; Iran killed two US service members in Jordan and one in Iraq. The US continued to target Iranian military capabilities. US equity futures rebound given the broader positive tone.DXY flat; Antipodeans lead on China stimulus hopes, while GBP awaits Burnham.Fixed income pare earlier losses while gilts remain in focus as Burnham gets ready for his first day as PM.Choppy crude trade as geopolitics dictate the tape while precious metals holds steady.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (Jun), New Zealand Inflation (Q2) & Comments by incoming UK PM Burnham.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US continued to strike Iran, for a sixth consecutive night; Iran claimed that power facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure were struck. Iranian Army Spokesman warned that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target; he added that “either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can”.US equities slump after further worries of stretched AI valuations.DXY gains; JPY saw fleeting strength following PM Takaichi's GPIF comments.Fixed income benchmarks supported by safe haven flows. Crude futures higher after multiple UKMTO reports in the Middle East.Looking ahead, highlights include US Building Permits (Jun), Export/Import Prices (Jun), Industrial Production (Jun), UoM Consumer Expectations (Jul) & Atlanta Fed GDP.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US continued to strike Iran, for a sixth consecutive night; Iran claimed that power facilities, bridges and civilian infrastructure were struck.Iranian Army Spokesman warned that if the US strike the infrastructure of Iran, all infrastructure in the region will be a legitimate target; he added that “either all countries in the region can export oil or no one can”.US President Trump stated that they will see the fruits of labour in Iran shortly.APAC Stocks were pressured, with Nikkei 225 (-5%) leading the declines; European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY is a touch firmer this morning; G10s are broadly lower, albeit modestly so.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ CPI Final (Jun), US Building Permits (Jun), Export/Import Prices (Jun), Industrial Production (Jun), UoM Consumer Expectations (Jul), Atlanta Fed GDP, Comments from ECB's Cipollone.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US has completed another round of strikes on various parts of Iran, targeting military capabilities; Tehran responded with its own attacks on Kuwait and Jordan.TSMC reported Q2 metrics that beat estimates, while raising its Q3 revenue guidance above expectations. In addition, the co. is to add another USD 100bln of US investment. US equity futures lower despite strong TSMC earnings and Japan's large investment for Nvidia's Rubin chips.DXY rangebound while CHF and NOK outperforms; GBP unreactive following GDP data. Fixed income benchmarks softer despite lower energy; UK and French politics in focus.Crude benchmarks take a breather despite ongoing US-Iran strikes, spot gold moves a bit lower.Looking ahead, highlights include US Retail Sales (Jun), Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index (Jul), Pending Home Sales (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP, Speakers including Fed's Logan & Schmid, Earnings from Netflix, Alcoa, GE Aerospace, US Bancorp, Abbott & State Street.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US has completed another round of strikes on various parts of Iran, targeting military capabilities; Tehran responded with its own attacks on Kuwait and Jordan.US President Trump stated Iran wants to meet, though warned that strikes would expand next week. Nonetheless, crude benchmarks take a breather following recent gains; Brent -0.6%.APAC stocks held a mostly negative bias, with the KOSPI (-6.4%) dragged by losses in Samsung Electronics (-8.6%) and SK Hynix (-11.9%). European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open.DXY is flat and holds around 100.50; G10s are mixed against the USD.Looking ahead, highlights include UK GDP (May), Italian HICP Final (Jun), EZ Balance of Trade (May), US Retail Sales (Jun), Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Index (Jul), Pending Home Sales (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP, SNB Minutes (Jul), Speakers including Fed's Logan & Schmid, Supply from Spain, France & UK.Earnings from Netflix, Alcoa, UnitedHealth, GE Aerospace, US Bancorp, Abbott, State Street & ABB.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US struck Iran overnight, Trump said they will do so again on Wednesday night. Adding, they will hit power plants and bridges next week unless Iran negotiates.IRGC targeted weapons/storage in Bahrain and Kuwait, US positions in Jordan and the Fifth Fleet Command HQ. Iran said it is a mistake to think military action will force them to talk.ASML (+3.7%) reported Q2 earnings that beat estimates while raising its FY guidance above analyst expectations. Additionally, the Co. announced a partnership with Intel (INTC) for high-volume production of Intel 18A logic products using High NA EUV.US equity futures are firmer across the board, with NQ supported by ASML and SK Hynix upside overnight.DXY and Fixed Income rangebound ahead of a busy speaker slate.Crude benchmarks eke out mild gains, with another round of US strikes tonight.Looking ahead, highlights include US PPI (Jun), BoC Policy Announcement (Jul), Fed Beige Book (Jul), Speakers including Fed's Williams, Musalem, Warsh & Cook, BoC Governor Macklem, BoE's Pill, Earnings from United Airlines, Johnson & Johnson, Morgan Stanley, PNC Financial Services, BNY Mellon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Aug'26 +1.9%.US President Trump also announced a naval blockade, which is set to begin at 21:00 BST / 16:00 EDT.APAC stocks were mostly in the red given the geopolitical environment and tech sell-off; European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY takes a breather; Kiwi outperforms following regional data and hawkish comments from RBNZ's Conway.USTs and Bunds remain pressured amidst the elevated energy prices and after Fed's Waller delivered hawkish remarks.Looking ahead, Highlights include German Wholesale Prices (Jun), Chinese M2 Money Supply (Jun), US NFIB Business Optimism Index (Jun), US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting.Speakers including Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook & Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Supply from the Netherlands & Germany.Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America, Wells Fargo.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US continued to launch strikes for a third night, after President Trump stated that he would hit Iran “very hard” on Monday and Tuesday. Separately, Trump threatened to hit Iran's “Pickaxe Mountain”, an underground nuclear facility; Brent Sep'26 +4.0%.US equity futures are mixed, with the NQ outperforming as it recovers from Monday's selloff; US banking names kick of earnings.DXY tentative heading into CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony; Kiwi outperforms after further hawkish RBNZ rhetoric.Fixed income benchmarks are softer amid energy moves and continued post-Waller hawkishness.Crude benchmarks grind higher on continued US-Iran updates while spot gold finds support above USD 4k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jun), Fed Discount Rate Minutes (Jul), ECB President Lagarde-US Treasury Secretary Bessent meeting, Speakers include Fed Chair Warsh, Goolsbee, Barr, Cook and Bowman, BoE Governor Bailey, Earnings from Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Bank of America and Wells Fargo. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend, with the US military targeting 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday, while Iran attacked US bases across the Gulf and closed the Strait of Hormuz.Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson said the US violated all clauses of the MoU in less than a month and stated that Iran will not execute commitments in the MoU as long as the US is not fulfilling its commitments. Furthermore, the spokesperson said mediators are still continuing their efforts to mediate between Iran and the US in recent days and Iran is in contact with mediators. Energy benchmarks pulled back following the constructive rhetoric, Brent +2.3%.US equity futures are off worst levels but the NQ is the clear underperformer, weighed down by the losses in SK Hynix (-15.4%).DXY reverse earlier gains; JPY hit on GPIF chatter, NZD continues to benefit on tightening bets.Looking ahead, highlights include OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill, ECB's Schnabel & RBNZ's Conway.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US forces struck 140 Iranian military targets on Saturday and took further action on Sunday. Iran attacked bases in Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait & Bahrain.Crude rallied following this and Iran announcing the Strait of Hormuz would now be closed, though the US said transit has since happened, Brent +4.3%.APAC bourses were pressured, KOSPI underperformed as SK Hynix fell 13%, weighing on the NQ -1.2%.European futures in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%. DXY is modestly firmer against G10 peers across the board.Fixed income underpressure as yields lift across the curve. Spot gold lost USD 4.1k/oz, down to USD 4050/oz. Base peers followed the tone lower.Looking ahead, highlights include German Current Account (May), OPEC MOMR (Jul), US Monthly Budget Statement (Jun), Coalition of the Willing Summit, Speakers including Fed's Waller, BoE's Pill & RBNZ's Conway, Supply from the EU.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Mixed APAC trade, China in the green amid multiple IPOs and tech strength locally. US and European futures contained.DXY is range-bound despite the renewed Middle East clashes. Yields consolidate after the energy-driven lift on Tuesday, following the revocation of the Iranian waiver and tit-for-tat strikes.US Treasury revoked the June 21st Iran-related waiver, General License X, which had allowed Iran to produce, deliver and sell its oilBrent remains above USD 76/bbl, firmer by c. 3.5%, driven higher by the above points. Though, interestingly, the US strikes did not spur any further upside.RBNZ hiked by 25bps in-line with consensus, assessed the current OCR remains accommodative, and further increases "appear likely".Looking ahead, highlights include Swedish Inflation Prelim. (Jun), US Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), NBP Policy Announcement (Jul), NBH Minutes (Jun), Fed Minutes (Jun), NATO Ankara Summit, Speakers include US President Trump, Supply from the UK, Germany and the US.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker. Brent Sept'26 +1.2%.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.Global tech stocks fall after Samsung Electronics (-6.9%) shares plummeted post-earnings; NQ -1%.DXY is incrementally firmer, JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Iran's IRGC fired at least two missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a US official. It was separately reported that one was a Qatari LNG tanker.Fars reported that the Qatari tanker attempted to pass through the Omani route and ignored repeated warnings.Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi said negotiations on a final deal will not commence if threats continue.KOSPI slumped following post-earnings losses in Samsung Electronics (-9.7%). Co. topped forecasts, but failed to calm fears surrounding elevated valuations. European equity futures are indicative of a weaker open.DXY is incrementally firmer, whilst the JPY marginally outperforms after a Japanese official pushed back on reports that the government is urging the BoJ to lower interest rates.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Production (May), French Trade Balance (May), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Trade Balance (May), New York Fed SCE (Jun), Atlanta Fed GDP (Q2), Canadian Trade Balance (May), Ivey PMI (Jun), EIA STEO (Jul), NATO Ankara Summit. Supply from the UK, Germany and the US. Speakers include BoE's Mann.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump warned that Iran has some missiles left and that they could wipe those out. It was separately suggested that Trump made it clear Iran cannot impose fees on the Strait of Hormuz.APAC stocks gained, with strength seen in the KOSPI (+4.6%); European equity futures are indicative of a slightly firmer open.DXY traded subdued at around 100.70; USD/JPY holds just above the 161.00 mark, taking a breather following recent pressure.US and China are moving towards reducing tariffs on each other's agricultural products, Semafor reported.Highlights include Global S&P Services/Composite PMI Final (Jun), BoE DMP (Jun), Speakers including ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey.Holiday: US Independence Day. Newsquawk audio and headline service will stop at 18:15BST/13:15EDT, however, Newsquawk widgets will continue to function as usual.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, returns for his quarterly update to argue that markets and the economy are telling two completely different stories. While equities keep melting up toward a likely blow-off top, his models show the "quiet hand" of the real economy — labor market deterioration, rising full-time job losses, record credit card delinquencies, and a struggling housing sector — already rolling over into what he calls a structural recession. He walks through his indicator framework, explains why he's not calling an imminent recession yet (two more liquidity and yield signals are needed), and lays out his "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" for when he'd fully rotate out of stocks into bonds. The conversation also covers his contrarian views on inflation (he thinks disinflation, not inflation, is coming), his skepticism on Bitcoin's long-term value despite expecting a short-term bounce, a near-term gold and dollar bounce followed by major dollar strength, and his boldest calls for a year from now — including a bursting AI bubble and Bitcoin below $20,000.Thank you to our sponsors: Kalshi - download the Kalshi app and use code JULIA to get $10 when you trade $10. http://kalshi.com/r/JULIA Monetary Metals - learn more at https://www.monetary-metals.com/julia/Links: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4HTimestamps:00:00 – Intro: welcoming back Henrik Zeberg, head macroeconomist at SwissBlock01:05 – Recap: the rally he called last quarter played out as predicted01:36 – Stock market hasn't topped, but the real economy is quietly rolling over03:50 – The split between the "financial economy" and the "real economy"04:42 – His "structural recession call" — what it means and what's still missing05:25 – Kalshi's recession odds (10.4%) vs. what Henrik's model is showing06:25 – Why almost nobody sees a recession coming until it's already here07:06 – Breaking down GDP: why the consumer (70%) is the real signal to watch09:58 – Labor market red flags: falling participation, part-time vs. full-time jobs, long-term unemployment12:33 – The "avalanche" analogy — how a slow buildup becomes a sudden crisis14:59 – Credit card delinquencies now above 2009 recession levels16:04 – Why housing is the earliest domino to fall19:30 – Structural recession call, explained in full — and the two triggers he's waiting on24:45 – The market's "loud hand": no top yet, more melt-up ahead27:07 – Risk rotation theory — from mega-caps into small caps and speculative names29:16 – Why he thinks the inflation narrative is wrong (savings rate argument)32:57 – Stock vs. flow: the bathtub analogy for inflation vs. price levels33:28 – What could still push this "blow-off top" rally further34:32 – His own portfolio moves — how much cash vs. risk he's holding36:57 – The "Zeberg Solomon Protocol" — his signal for exiting stocks entirely into bonds39:37 – Bitcoin: why he's bullish on a short-term bounce but bearish long-term42:23 – Gold outlook tied to a weakening (then re-strengthening) dollar43:43 – Dollar forecast: DXY to 93–94 short term, then a run toward 120+44:56 – One-year-out contrarian calls: AI bubble bursting, Bitcoin under $20K, recession confirmed47:06 – Where to find Henrik's work47:25 – Parting thoughts: don't trust a crowded consensus trade

Qatar and Pakistan mediators concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, highlighting positive progress on issues related to the Islamabad MoU.US equity futures trade mixed, with the NQ weighed by tech selling in South Korean stocks.DXY slips below the 101.00 handle, as the JPY strengthens on possible intervention.Fixed income benchmarks trade on the softer side heading into the US jobs report; NFP expected at 110K.Crude benchmarks continue to trade lower, Brent -1.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobs Report (Jun), Initial Jobless Claims, Speakers including ECB's Cipollone, BoE's Mann and Fed's Daly.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Iran deal is back on again and off again, but oil is not buying it. Marty and John sift through the weekend headline chaos to focus on what actually matters: WTI near seventy dollars and the dollar index back above one hundred. They break down Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's speech on economic statecraft, why reshoring critical supply chains is moving from PowerPoint to plant openings, and how Iran's oil sanctions waivers are really a dollar dominance play. They also dig into the AI-driven memory shortage that is ending consumer electronics deflation, the administration's crackdown on frontier model releases, and why Apollo's seventeen percent withdrawal requests are a warning shot for private credit. To close, they look at Strategy's preferred share depeg, Bitcoin scraping fifty-eight thousand, and BlackRock's quiet reiteration that every portfolio needs one to two percent allocated to BTC.

US President Trump reiterated that they are making a deal with Iran and will see how it goes. Though he pushed back on Iranian claims that there will be no IAEA inspectors at their nuclear facilities. Brent Aug'26 -0.8%.US Secretary of State Rubio said the Lebanon file is separate from the agreement with Iran and that the US will deal directly with the Lebanese government. He added that Iran will not able to charge tolls when a final deal is agreed upon.Israeli Ambassador to the US said Israel-Lebanon talks over the ceasefire are a "train wreck".APAC stocks traded mixed, whilst European equity futures are indicative of a slightly weaker open.DXY extends higher and trades towards 101.50, USD/JPY holds around 161.60.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Jun), Riksbank Minutes (Jun), BoC Minutes (Jun), Fed Bank Stress Test Report.Speakers including RBA's Hauser, BoE's Breeden & Dhingra, BoC's Rogers, ECB's Cipollone, Supply from UK, Italy, Germany & US, Earnings from Micron.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Mixed US handover continued into APAC before performance deteriorated, KOSPI -5% as the regions chip/tech momentum unwinds.European futures point to a lower open, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.9%.Crude relatively contained after Monday's pressure. US President Trump said they are negotiating with Iran and will see how it goes.DXY firmer to the modest detriment of peers, Antipodeans lagged given the broader risk tone.Fixed benchmarks extended marginally on Monday's advance, though action was choppy and rangebound.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Flash PMIs (Jun), US ADP Employment Change Weekly, Richmond Fed Index (Jun), BCB Minutes (Jun), NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lane, Elderson & Vujcic, BoE's Taylor & Dhingra, Supply from Netherlands, Germany & US, Earnings from FedEx. Note, Iranian President Pezeshkian is in Pakistan.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Iran deal looked like a breakthrough until both sides started spinning it within the hour, but oil kept falling and the dollar stayed bid anyway. Marty and John walk through a week of narrative violations, from WTI dropping into the mid seventies to Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish first FOMC press conference. They dig into why hyperscaler CapEx exploding while free cash flow collapses makes Volcker 2.0 impossible, how housing affordability and debt service are pushing the Fed and Treasury back together, and why frontier AI is now a state secret. They also check in on Bitcoin's quiet grind, with Taiwan's central bank exploring reserves and BlackRock still building products in the background.

Bitcoin's brutal six-week ETF bleed is finally easing. Santiago Capital's blockbuster 84-page report from Brent Johnson warning that the dollar can't die of weakness — only of STRENGTH, when a sustained DXY spike forces enough sovereign and corporate defaults to compel an alternative system — and today's setup is the cleanest macro inflection point we've seen all cycle. We break down whether the ETF pain peak signals the cycle bottom, what a 2-year yield breakout means for Bitcoin, and why Brent Johnson's "dollar dies of strength" thesis is the most important macro framework you're not hearing about. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Over the weekend, Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz amidst continued Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. This led to Brent Aug'26 to gap higher by c. USD 2/bbl.Thereafter, attention turned to negotiations, which yielded progress and improved the geopolitical mood. Brent Aug'26 then moved into the red, currently -1.8%.China added 10 US firms to its export control list, including USA Rare Earths, while the Finance Ministry announced it would take relevant measures against 46 US companies in government procurement activities.European bourses trade tentatively alongside similar action across US equity futures.DXY is a touch firmer this morning; USD/JPY continues to rise, and eyes 162.00 to the upside.Global fixed benchmarks are mixed; Gilts digest UK PM Starmer's decision to resign.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Inflation (May), EU Consumer Confidence Flash (Jun), CNB Minutes (Jun), and speakers including Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk