Podcasts about dxy

PBoC announced it will cut the FX Risk Reserve Ratio for forward FX sales to 0% from 20%, effective March 2nd to promote FX market development and support corporate exchange rate risk management.European equities firmer, Telecoms lead following potential M&A; US equity futures lower in the continuation of Thursday's tech-led selloff.DXY is flat; G10s broadly firmer, ex-EUR and GBP. USTs mildly firmer, Bunds choppy after mixed regional inflation prints.Crude gains and awaits the next chapter of the US-Iran saga and the OPEC+ meeting; Metals shine ahead of US PPI.Looking ahead, highlights include German CPI (Feb), Canadian GDP (Jan), US PPI (Jan), Comments from BoE's Pill.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

At the third round of nuclear talks in Geneva, Omani Foreign Minister says Iran and the US have welcomed proposals and talks are still currently ongoing. Further, "Iranian negotiating delegation meets IAEA director at the headquarters of the negotiations in Geneva", via Al Jazeera.European equities mixed; US equity futures unable to gain following NVIDIA earnings (+0.8% pre-market.)DXY posting modest gains, JPY outperforms on hawkish rhetoric, Cable softer ahead of Gorton and Denton by-election.Global fixed benchmarks are flat awaiting data, supply and Fed speak.Crude benchmarks fall following positive rhetoric from Omani FM, potentially easing tensions.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims, Japanese Tokyo CPI (Feb), Retail Sales (Jan). Speakers include Fed's Bowman, Miran & Goolsbee. Supply from the US. Earnings from CoreWeave, Intuit, Vistra Energy, Autodesk, Dell & Warner Bros Discovery.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump talked up the economy in his State of the Union Address, saying that the nation is back, bigger, better and stronger than before, while he added that we've seen nothing yet.Regarding tariffs, Trump said the Supreme Court decision on tariffs is very unfortunate but added that tariffs will remain in place and nearly all countries want to keep the trade deals.European bourses firmer as HSBC lifts the banking sector; US equity futures hold onto Anthropic- driven gains. DXY flat, Aussie outpaces peers post CPI while JPY lags in continuation of recent weakness.JGBs underperform on Takaichi's "reflationist" BoJ candidates; USTs await Fed speak & NVDA.Crude prices rangebound; Spot XAU holds above USD 5200/oz. Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Musalem, Barkin & Schmid. Supply from the US. Earnings from NVIDIA, Salesforce, Snowflake, TJX Companies, Lowe's & Synopsys.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC mostly firmer as China returned, somewhat shrugging off the weak Wall St. finish on AI disruption concerns.DXY marginally firmer, EUR/USD directionless, while USD/JPY edged higher and above 155.00.USTs pulled back from Monday's best, Bunds remained near highs, while JGBs saw choppy action after the long weekend.Crude remained tentative amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, XAU faded while copper rallied as China returned.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Lombardelli, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from UK, Italy & US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses slip as AI concerns hit European Banks; US equity futures rebound slightly.JPY dragged on reports PM Takaichi raised reservations about rate hikes to BoJ Governor Ueda; DXY slightly firmer.Gilts notch a fresh contract high into the TSC, USTs rangebound heading into heavy speaker docket.WTI and Brent mildly gains; Spot gold retreats from Monday's best while Copper gains as mainland China returns. Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, House Prices (Dec), Consumer Confidence (Feb), Dallas/Richmond Fed (Feb), Atlanta Fed GDP, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Greene, Taylor & Pill, Fed's Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, Waller, Cook & Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from Home Depot & Keurig Dr Pepper.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

President Trump raised the blanket tariff rate to 15% from 10% over the weekend, following SCOTUS ruling against IEEPA tariffs on Friday; EU is set to freeze trade deal approval over US President Trump's tariff risk, Bloomberg reports.European equities mixed; Defence names hit as Hungary blocks further funding.DXY pressured on renewed uncertainty after Trump increases global tariffs to 15%.Fixed income relatively contained and awaiting further tariff updates.WTI and Brent rangebound ahead of US-Iran talks this week; Spot XAU regains USD 5k/oz handle.US President Trump reportedly considers a targeted strike on Iran, followed by a larger attack and is open to deposing the Supreme Leader by force if Iran is stubborn, according to the NYT.Looking ahead, highlights include Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Dec/Jan). Speakers include BoE's Taylor, Fed's Waller & ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from Hims & Hers.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump and his advisors have reportedly indicated that the USMCA could be scrapped, NY Times reports. Instead, the US could have bilateral deals with Canada and Mexico.European equities lower as Airbus misses on 2026 aircraft deliveries; US equity futures slip.Antipodeans gain following recent losses; DXY flat after Wednesday's advances.Bonds hold a bearish bias, continuing the pressure seen in the prior session due to various factors.Crude benchmarks and precious metals benefit from growing US-Iran tension, whilst copper lags on weak European sentiment and Chinese holiday.US President Trump is scheduled to deliver remarks on the economy at 16:00EST/21:00GMT on Thursday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Trade Balance (Dec), Weekly/Continuing Claims, Philadelphia Fed (Feb), Pending Home Sales (Jan), EZ Flash Consumer Confidence (Feb), New Zealand Trade Balance (Jan), Australian Flash PMIs (Feb), Japanese CPI (Jan). Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, Fed's Bostic, Kashkari, Goolsbee & Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Walmart, Deere, Wayfair, Klarna, Opendoor, Newmont Mining, Southern & Constellation Energy.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The Trump administration is closer to a major war with Iran than people realise, Axios reports citing sources; a military operation would likely be a massive, weeks long campaign that will be a joint US-Israeli attack. European equities entirely in the green, with IBEX leading the way; US equity futures continue to extend Tuesday's gains.DXY firmer, Kiwi hit post-RBNZ while Cable holds afloat following UK inflation.Gilts choppy post-CPI; USTs slightly lower ahead of FOMC minutes.WTI and Brent nurse prior day losses as Ukraine talks conclude; Metals rebound. Looking ahead, highlights include US Durable Goods, Industrial Production (Jan), Housing Starts (Nov/Dec), Atlanta Fed GDP, FOMC Minutes (Jan). Speakers include ECB's Schnabel & Fed's Bowman. Supply from the US. Earnings from Analog, Carvana, DoorDash, Booking Holdings, Moody's, Garmin & Orange.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US-Iran talks have gotten underway; the latest is that the nuclear negotiations have entered the stage of discussing technical issues, Al Jazeera reports citing Iranian TV.Iran announced its readiness to reduce uranium enrichment, Al Hadath reports citing Iran's ambassador in Cairo; added "The contradiction of the US statements is proof of its lack of seriousness in the negotiations"European stocks are broadly in the green; Basic Resources weighed on by metals prices; US equity futures lower as US traders return from holiday.JPY gains ground on yield differentials and some haven flows while GBP lags after the UK jobs report; DXY flat. Gilts and JGBs lead; pricing remains in favour of a BoE cut in April, but March has inched higher into Wednesday's CPI post-unemployment/wages; USTs bid alongside global benchmarks.WTI and Brent rangebound with geopols in focus.Looking ahead, highlights include US ADP Weekly, NY Fed (Feb), Canadian CPI (Jan), Japanese Balance of Trade (Jan), US-Iran talks. Speakers include Fed's Barr & Daly. Earnings from Medtronic, Leidos, Palo Alto, Cadence Design Systems, Republic Services, Vulcan Materials, Kenvue.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump plans to roll back tariffs on metal and aluminium goods, according to FT.European equities shrug off the selloff seen stateside; Tech rebounds while Basic Resources lag; US equity futures hold steady.DXY slightly firmer and USTs rangebound heading into US CPI; JPY underperforms.Precious metals recover following Thursday's slump, whilst Copper lags on the back of weaker risk sentiment; Crude flat.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Jan), Speakers including ECBʼs de Guindos, BoEʼs Pill, Earnings from Moderna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

China is reportedly considering probing wine from France; could consider launching anti-dumping duty to French wine, and potentially take counter measures against the EU if it adopt duties.European bourses are trading on the backfoot; FTSE 100 outperforms on the back of firmer commodity prices; US equity futures mixed.DXY slightly lower heading into US NFP, JPY continues to gain, AUD bid after RBA's Hauser said inflation is "too high".Fixed income rangebound; Bunds little moved following tepid auction.Crude edges higher as Trump mulls sending another carrier near Iran; Gold rangebound; Base metals rise, led by nickel prices following an cut in output from the world's largest mine.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFP (Jan), Japanese PPI (Jan), BoC Minutes (Jan), OPEC MOMR. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel, Fed's Schmid, Bowman & Hammack. Supply from the US. Earnings from T-Mobile, McDonalds, AppLovin, Equinix, Motorola Solutions, Hilton and Kraft Heinz.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are mostly firmer, US equity futures are flat/incrementally higher.DXY is flat awaiting Retail Sales/ECI, JPY bid alongside JGB stabilisation whilst NOK gains post-inflation.Fixed rebounds from Monday's pressure into data & supply; Gilts outperform as PM Starmer pushed back on calls to resign.WTI and Brent mildly lower, XAU remains above USD 5k/oz; Copper muted heading into Chinese festive period.Looking ahead, highlights include US NFIB (Jan), Weekly ADP, ECI (Q4), Retail Sales (Dec) & EIA STEO. Speakers include Fed's Hammack & Logan, Supply from the US. Earnings from Coca-Cola, S&P, Gilead, Robinhood, Welltower, Datadog, Ford, AIG, Xylem.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses were initially lower, but now mixed whilst US equity futures are firmer; AMZN -7.7% pre-market.DXY is mildly lower, G10s are broadly firmer across the board with outperformance in the Antipodeans.USTs hold onto recent gains, Bunds digest ECB speak whilst Gilts take a breather.Crude prices dip as US and Iran informal talks enter the second round; Metals pare back earlier losses as high volatility continues.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs Report (Jan), US Prelim. Michigan (Feb), Speakers include BoEʼs Pill & Fed's Jefferson.Earnings from Under Armour, Philip Morris International.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are broadly on the backfoot; US equity futures mixed, but the NQ outperforms, as chip names benefit from Alphabet boosting AI spending.DXY is mildly firmer, with G10s lower to varying degrees; Aussie hampered by pressure in metals, GBP lags into BoE.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs incrementally firmer, whilst Gilts underperform on political woes.Crude benchmarks slip with US-Iran meeting confirmed, Spot gold moves lower, silver -10.5%.Looking ahead, highlights include US Challenger (Jan), Weekly/Continuing Jobless Claims, Revelio PLS, ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement & MPR, Banxico Announcement, CNB Announcement. Speakers include BoE's Bailey, ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic, BoC's Macklem & RBA's Bullock.Earnings from Amazon, Strategy, Roblox, Reddit, Bloom Energy, ConocoPhillips, Bristol Myers Squibb, Barrick Mining, Cigna.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Investing in Bizarro World Episodes: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIAfIjKxr02sAztzlJNy1ug5bDvTVZkME&si=w2d_EF-B5jMo1dYDSubscribe to Investing In Bizarro World: @bizarroworld Editor's Note: The price for the premium version of Investing in Bizarro World is now $149 everywhere except this link: https://bit.ly/45I69sm The response to our final offer at $99 was so strong that we're keeping it open until we record the next live episode this Thursday. You might find it especially useful as Gerardo and I navigate what we're doing with precious metals volatility in real time. Last chance at $99 right here: https://bit.ly/45I69sm —NickThe free version of the 351st episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.Here's what was covered:Macro Musings - Nick and Gerardo open with on-the-ground observations from Vancouver, where packed conference halls, nonstop meetings, and companies actively competing to deploy capital underscored how strong sentiment has become across the metals and resources space. Despite some high-profile voices warning of froth, both agree this market is still structurally driven — not retail-led — with China standing out as a major physical buyer. Silver pricing is highlighted as a key signal: while trading near $117 per ounce in Western markets, physical silver in China was quoted closer to $146, underscoring the premium being paid for real metal. Gold and silver consolidations are getting shorter, the U.S. dollar has touched a four-year low near 96 on the DXY, and political pressure for lower rates is intensifying. The takeaway: this remains a bull market built on currency debasement, debt, and sovereign demand — but discipline matters more than ever.Market Takes - The conversation moves into volatility, technical levels, and how to navigate sharp moves without chasing. Gold recently surged from roughly $5,000 to $5,600 in a matter of days before consolidating near $5,400. Silver corrected to about $103 while Nick and Gerardo were in Vancouver before rebounding to $120 and settling around $116. Copper pushed through all-time highs above $6 per pound, with upside potential still intact even on pullbacks toward $5.75. Tin hit record highs near $53,000–$54,000 per tonne, aluminum reached four-year highs around $3,300 per tonne, platinum broke to new highs, and palladium moved to multi-year highs. Lithium carbonate rebounded to above $23,000 per tonne after trading near $8,000–$9,000 last summer. The broader CRB commodity index has broken out, signaling strength across the entire complex. Nick reiterates the importance of buy-under prices and limit orders, using Aldebaran Resources as a case study, where a $35 million financing at C$3.25 created a brief pullback to the C$3.60 buy-under level before shares rebounded.Bizarro Banter - The discussion turns somber as Nick and Gerardo reflect on global unrest and domestic events that are increasingly shaping capital flows. Firsthand observations from a massive, peaceful protest in Vancouver — estimated at 10,000–20,000 people — serve as a contrast to recent events in Iran and the United States. They recount personal conversations with individuals directly affected by communications blackouts and violent crackdowns abroad, then pivot to concerns about law enforcement conduct, constitutional rights, and the erosion of trust at home. The core theme is consistency: when institutions lose credibility and force replaces accountability, capital predictably migrates toward hard assets, jurisdictional safety, and tangible stores of value. The metals market is responding accordingly.Premium Portfolio Picks - For paid listeners only. (Though you get a free Q&A this week.) Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/49UPxAi0:00 Introduction3:15 Macro Musings: Vancouver Conference Froth. Shorter Metals Consolidations. China Physical Premium.7:06 Market Takes: Tether Gold Hoard. Buy-Under Limit Orders. CRB Breakout Setup.26:35 Bizarro Banter: Iran Protest March. Regime Blackout Stories. ICE Shooting Outrage.45:03 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section)PLEASE NOTE: There are now two versions of this podcast. 1. Bizarro World Live — Pay $2 per episode to watch us record the podcast live every Thursday and get Premium Portfolio Picks every week. Plus an archive of all premium episodes. Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/49UPxAi2. Bizarro World Free — Published the Monday after the live recording with no Premium Portfolio Picks.Visit our website Daily Profit Cycle for more content like this and more! https://dailyprofitcycle.com/

NVIDIA (NVDA) AI chip sales to China are reportedly stalled by a US security review, and Chinese customers are, meanwhile, not placing H200 chip orders.European bourses are broadly firmer, US equity futures are mixed with mild underperformance in the NQ.DXY trades flat ahead of US data, JPY underperforms as focus turns to a landslide LDP victory.Fixed income benchmarks are mixed; USTs are flat whilst Bunds are firmer.Crude-specific newsflow remains light, benchmarks retrace bid following US-Iranian tensions; Precious metals continue to rebound with spot XAU returning above USD 5k/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Composite/Services PMIs (Jan), US ADP (Jan), ISM Services (Jan), Treasury Refunding Announcement, NBP Policy Announcement, Comments from Fed's Cook, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened stronger, but sentiment has dipped off best levels; US equity futures are modestly firmer, with mild outperformance is seen in the NQ.DXY is flat, Antipodeans benefit from a rebound in metals prices with outperformance in the Aussie after the RBA hiked rates by 25bps (as expected), whilst the SoMP noted that underlying inflation is higher than expected.Fixed income on the backfoot with supply in focus in a shutdown-thinned US docket.Crude prices initially lower but now flat; India to stop importing Russian oil as part of the trade deal with the US. Metals rebound with spot gold returning above USD 4900/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include US RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4), Australian S&P PMIs Final (Jan), Speakers including Fed's Bowman, Barkin & ECB's Lagarde.December JOLTS has been postponed, on account of the US government shutdown. Earnings from AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Lo que ha pasado con el oro estos últimos días (específicamente entre el 30 de enero y el 2 de febrero de 2026) ha sido, literalmente, un evento histórico. No veíamos una caída así desde 1983.El oro pasó de tocar máximos históricos por encima de los $5,500 la onza a desplomarse más de un 12% en una sola sesión, llegando a perder temporalmente el soporte de los $4,800 - $5,000.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=npoNbXXS4oQhttps://triunfers.comAquí tienes las razones de este "viernes negro" para los metales:1. El "Efecto Warsh" (La nominación en la Fed)El detonante principal fue el anuncio de Donald Trump nominando a Kevin Warsh como próximo presidente de la Reserva Federal.* Por qué importa: Warsh es visto como un "halcón" (hawkish), alguien que prefiere mantener las tasas de interés altas para combatir la inflación con mano dura.* Consecuencia: El mercado asumió que no habrá recortes de tasas pronto, lo que hizo que el dólar se disparara. Como el oro se compra con dólares, cuando el dólar sube, el oro suele caer.2. Estallido de la "Burbuja de Seguridad"Durante 2025 y principios de 2026, el oro subió de forma parabólica por miedo a la inflación y tensiones geopolíticas (como el conflicto por Groenlandia o roces diplomáticos graves). Al alcanzar los $5,500, el activo estaba "sobrecomprado". El anuncio de la Fed fue la aguja que pinchó esa burbuja, provocando una toma de ganancias masiva por parte de los grandes fondos.3. Liquidaciones forzadas y MargenMucha gente estaba invertida en oro y plata usando apalancamiento (dinero prestado).* Cuando el precio bajó los primeros $100, se activaron las "llamadas de margen" (margin calls).* Para cubrir esas deudas, los inversores se vieron obligados a vender sus posiciones rápidamente, creando una cascada de ventas que hundió el precio en cuestión de minutos.4. El efecto en la Plata (La verdadera masacre)Si el oro cayó, la plata se "derritió". La plata sufrió su peor caída histórica en un solo día, desplomándose entre un 28% y un 36%. Esto arrastró el sentimiento general de todos los metales preciosos.En resumen:Bitcoin y el Oro cayeron por la misma razón de fondo: el regreso triunfal del Dólar. El mercado ha decidido que, ante una Fed más agresiva con Kevin Warsh a la cabeza, el efectivo ("Cash is King") vuelve a ser el refugio preferido por encima de los activos escasos como el oro o las cripto.Dato curioso: Mientras Bitcoin caía por los rumores de los papeles de Epstein y la Fed, el oro caía puramente por matemáticas financieras y el fortalecimiento del dólar. Fue una limpieza general de "manos débiles" en todos los mercados.En economía, hay una regla no escrita: el dinero no desaparece, solo cambia de manos. Cuando activos como Bitcoin o el Oro caen con fuerza, ese capital suele buscar refugio en la "moneda base" del sistema: el Dólar Estadounidense (USD).Estos últimos días (finales de enero y principios de febrero de 2026), el dólar ha vivido un resurgimiento agresivo por tres razones clave:1. El "Refugio Seguro" (Safe Haven)Cuando el mercado entra en pánico (ya sea por los rumores de los papeles de Epstein, la volatilidad de las criptos o el desplome de la plata), los inversores entran en modo "Risk-Off". Esto significa que venden todo lo que consideran arriesgado y compran dólares. El dólar es la moneda más líquida del mundo; es el "extintor" que todos buscan cuando el edificio financiero se quema.2. La nominación de Kevin Warsh (Tasas más altas)La gran noticia del 30 de enero fue la nominación de Kevin Warsh para presidir la Reserva Federal.* Por qué ayuda al dólar: Warsh es un "halcón" (pro-tasas altas). Si el mercado cree que las tasas de interés se mantendrán elevadas por más tiempo, el dólar se vuelve más atractivo para los inversores extranjeros, ya que ofrece mejores rendimientos que otras monedas (como el euro o el yen).


* El dato: El índice DXY (que mide la fuerza del dólar frente a otras monedas) rebotó desde mínimos de 95.5 puntos hasta rozar los 97 puntos en solo un par de sesiones.

3. La caída de las materias primas (Oro y Petróleo)Como la mayoría de las materias primas y el Bitcoin se cotizan en dólares, existe una correlación inversa. Si el dólar se fortalece, automáticamente necesitas "menos dólares" para comprar la misma cantidad de oro o BTC, lo que presiona sus precios a la baja. En este caso, el fortalecimiento del dólar fue el "martillo" que terminó de hundir al oro tras su racha récord.Estrategia de Trump.Conviértete en un supporter de este podcast: https://www.spreaker.com/podcast/los-ultimos-dias--2659766/support.Newsletter Marketing Radical: https://marketingradical.substack.com/welcomeNewsletter Negocios con IA: https://negociosconia.substack.com/welcomeMis Libros: https://borjagiron.com/librosSysteme Gratis: https://borjagiron.com/systemeSysteme 30% dto: https://borjagiron.com/systeme30Manychat Gratis: https://borjagiron.com/manychatMetricool 30 días Gratis Plan Premium (Usa cupón BORJA30): https://borjagiron.com/metricoolNoticias Redes Sociales: https://redessocialeshoy.comNoticias IA: https://inteligenciaartificialhoy.comClub: https://triunfers.com

European bourses opened lower but now display a mixed picture; US equity futures are entirely in the red with the NQ leading losses, focus on NVIDIA/Oracle.DXY is flat, Aussie initially underperformed as metals got hit but now CHF lags as the risk-tone improves. JPY digests Takaichi comments and new polling which places LDP in a strong position.Fixed initially bid given the risk tone, but pulling back as sentiment turns mixed in Europe.Precious metals hit in a continuation of Friday's losses; WTI dips below USD 62/bbl as US-Iran tensions ease, with talks in Turkey this week looming.Looking ahead, highlights include US Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks pressured with several bearish factors weighing, incl. the partial US shutdown, weak Chinese PMIs & NVIDIA's OpenAI investment stalling.DXY rangebound, EUR firmer but below 1.19. USD/JPY initially benefited from Takaichi's remarks, though subsequent clarification unwound this.Fixed benchmarks mixed, JGBs benefit from the latest election polling.Crude benchmarks hit alongside APAC stocks, OPEC+ maintained the pause as expected. Spot gold continued to falter, base peers hit by the Chinese data.Bitcoin hit a trough just below USD 75k before finding a floor.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan), Speakers including BoE's Breeden & Fed's Bostic, Treasury Refunding Announcement, Earnings from Palantir & NXP Semiconductors.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr02/02 - DIRR +5%, CXSE +3%. RAIZ -10% e BRAVA -4Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 2a. feira, 2 de fevereiro, com mercados brasileiro e internacional subindo levemente depois das fortes quedas de sexta-feira com a indicação do Kevin Harsh para o Fed e prata despencando -27% (hoje sobe 2%). Agora, 17h18, o Ibovespa à vista está a 182,1 mil pontos, +0,40%, depois de ter caído de 186,450 mil pontos, na quinta-feira, para 181,3 mil no fechamento da sexta. Hoje, até voltou a bater 182,9 mil, às 11h, mas não aguentou, recuou e fechou nos 182,1. Após acumular baixa de 4,4% em janeiro, o dólar fechou a segunda-feira próximo da estabilidade no Brasil, mas novamente acima dos R$5,25, com alguns investidores realizando os lucros recentes, enquanto no exterior a moeda norte-americana teve perdas firmes ante pares do real como o peso chileno e o peso mexicano, mas subiu +0,71% frente moeda fortes do DXY. Os juros da Treasury americana subiram bem de 4,255% para 4,28% a.a., no maior nível desde setembro de 2025, depois que O Instituto de Gestão de Fornecimento (ISM, na sigla em inglês) reportou uma atividade industrial de 52,6 em janeiro, superando em muito os 48,4 esperados pelos economistas. Isso representou a primeira expansão clara (acima de 50) após 26 meses consecutivos de contração, sinalizando que a economia está crescendo mais rápido do que o previsto. Investidores entenderam que a economia americana pode estar mais aquecida que o esperado e que o Fed pode demorar mais para cortar os juros novamente. Já os juros dos títulos Tesouro direto subiram com o Tesouro Prefixado 2037 a 13,60% x 13,52% a.a., sexta, e o IPCA+ 2035 a 7,45% x 7,41% a.a.. Assista no vídeo as análises do Conde e Ricardo.

Neste episódio do Conversa com Zé Márcio, o economista Alexandre Schwarsman discute com o anfitrião e economista-chefe da Genial, José Márcio Camargo, o início do ciclo de queda da Selic e o impacto da desvalorização global do dólar no Brasil. Schwarsman critica as tarifas de Trump, prevendo que a volatilidade institucional prejudicará a eficiência mundial e não reindustrializará os EUA.Para 2026, ele projeta um PIB de apenas 1% devido a gargalos de oferta e alerta para o risco fiscal insustentável. O especialista conclui que a corrida eleitoral e a definição de candidaturas na centro-direita serão os grandes gatilhos de estresse para o mercado e para o câmbio.DIRETO AO PONTO00:00 – Introdução: O papel da assessoria de excelência na Genial.00:29 – Apresentação: Zé Márcio recebe o economista Alexandre Schwarsman.01:05 – Copom e a queda da Selic: Análise do início do ciclo de cortes.02:30 – Estratégia de comunicação do Banco Central e o papel do Fed.03:40 – Impacto da desvalorização global do dólar (DXY) na inflação brasileira.05:25 – Política comercial de Trump: Críticas às tarifas e volatilidade institucional.07:40 – Riscos de desindustrialização e o desafio da manufatura nos EUA.09:15 – Geopolítica e a disputa EUA vs. China: Alianças e protecionismo.11:10 – Visão de mercado: Déficits comerciais e a "promessa de pagamento" americana.13:05 – Projeções para a economia brasileira em 2026: PIB e gargalos de oferta.15:15 – Cenário Fiscal: Desafios da dívida pública e a gestão atual.16:40 – Cenário Eleitoral 2026: O impacto político no câmbio e a sucessão.18:30 – Considerações finais e encerramento.

US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.DXY gained amid the Warsh speculation, to the detriment of G10 peers. USTs under pressure following this.Apple shares ended the extended US session flat, having initially risen after profit and revenue beat, driven by exceptionally strong iPhone demand.European futures point to a firmer open, US futures hit by the potential Warsh appointment.Crude benchmarks gave back some of Thursday's strength, precious metals were also on the backfoot.Looking ahead, highlights include Spanish/German/Italian GDP Flash (Q4), German Import Prices (Dec), Unemployment (Jan), Prelim. HICP (Jan), Spanish Prelim. CPI (Jan), EZ GDP Flash Prelim. (Q4), Canadian GDP (Dec), US PPI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Bowman, Miran & Riksbank's Jansson. Earnings from SoFi, American Express, Verizon, Chevron, Exxon & Colgate.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he will announce his Fed pick on Friday. Reports suggest the administration is leaning towards Warsh.DXY bid, USTs lower with the yield curve steeper and US equity futures down (ES -0.8%) amid the Warsh speculation.XAU lost the USD 5k/oz handle and XAG below USD 100/oz in a pullback from recent highs and amid USD strength.Crude curtailed by the USD, and as Trump plans to meet with Iranian officialsAUD hit on metal action, JPY digests Tokyo CPI, EUR unaffected by German state CPIs and EZ GDPLooking ahead, highlights include German HICP (Jan), Canadian GDP (Dec), US PPI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Bowman, Miran, Waller. President Trump's Fed Chair announcement.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

CMDTYs metálicas derretem, DXY sobe e dólar vai a R$ 5,22. Prepare-se para a segunda metade do dia sabendo de tudo que mexeu com o mercado nas primeiras horas do pregão. Informação e análise com Roberto Motta. O Resumo da Manhã é transmitido de segunda a sexta, às 13h. Ative as notificações do programa e acompanhe ao vivo!

In this high-stakes editorial, we sit down with Marc Chandler, Managing Partner at Bannockburn Global Forex and Editor of the Marc to Market blog, to dissect one of the most volatile trading days in recent memory. As we record on Friday, January 30th, the markets are reeling from a historic "crash" (maybe) in precious metals, with Silver plummeting over 30% in a single session. We explore whether this is a simple technical correction or the end of a massive momentum trade, while diving into the geopolitical tensions - from the Middle East to Canadian energy deals - that are reshuffling the global board. Key Discussion Points The US Dollar's Counter-Attack: Analyzing the recent "free fall" to 95.5 on the DXY and why a technical rebound toward the 97.00 level is likely ahead of upcoming jobs data. The Precious Metals Correction: Making sense of the staggering moves in Gold and Silver, and why Marc views this as a "snap-back" of a dangerously overextended rubber band. Quantitative Red Flags: Using Bollinger Bands and standard deviations to identify "three-sigma" events - extreme readings that signaled the market was dangerously stretched. The Energy and Geopolitical Shift: A look at the US "Armada" in the Middle East, Canadian energy pivots toward China and India, and the sudden volatility in Uranium and Rare Earths. Mastering Risk Management: Why "knowing where the exits are" is more important than price targets during unhinged market moves. Click here to visit Marc's site - Marc To Market - https://www.marctomarket.com/   ---------------------- For more market commentary & interview summaries, subscribe to our Substacks:  The KE Report: https://kereport.substack.com/  Shad's resource market commentary: https://excelsiorprosperity.substack.com/ Investment disclaimer: This content is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, an offer, or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Investing in equities, commodities, really everything involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Do your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Guests and hosts may own shares in companies mentioned.  

European bourses are broadly lower; LVMH (-8%) sinks post-earnings, whilst ASML (+4.9%) gains after the company beat across its headline metrics, provided a rosy outlook, and announced a EUR 12bln share buyback.NQ boosted by ASML & SK Hynix earnings, as well as reports that China is said to have approved the first batch of NVIDIA's (+1.7%) H200 AI chips for import.DXY attempts a recovery to the detriment of G10s; AUD among the better performers post-CPI.USTs slightly softer pre-Fed, Bunds little moved on a robust auction, JGBs bid overnight.Crude benchmarks reverse earlier gains; Spot XAU extends above USD 5,300/oz; Copper regains USD 13k/t.Looking ahead, highlights include Fed Policy Announcement, BoC Policy Announcement, BCB Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB's Schnabel, BoC's Macklem, Fed Chair Powell. Supply from the US. Earnings from Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Lam, ServiceNow, IBM, Starbucks & AS.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's announced he is to raise tariffs on South Korean autos, lumber, pharma, and all other reciprocal tariffs to 25% from 15% due to Korea not yet enacting the trade deal.USD/JPY fell sharply below 154.00 without a clear catalyst, in a move similar to Friday's post-Ueda drop, DXY is slightly lower.European and US equity futures are broadly in the green; a slew of US earnings are on the docket.Fixed benchmarks hold a bearish bias, Bunds little moved to a robust auction.Crude prices slightly firmer, whilst Nat Gas prices remain elevated; precious metals rebound following Monday's selloff.Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed (Jan), Consumer Confidence (Jan), ADP Employment Change Weekly, NBH Policy Announcement. Speakers include ECB President Lagarde & ECBʼs Nagel, US President Trump. Supply from the US. Earnings from Texas Instruments, Boeing, General Motors, RTX, American Airlines, Logitech & LVMH.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

The global macro landscape is shifting fast, and this week we dive into how it's influencing bitcoin's price. We'll explore potential for a rotation between bitcoin and gold as precious metals come back into focus. Then, we look at the dramatic appreciation of the Japanese Yen and what speculation about US and Japanese authorities strengthening the currency means for crypto. We'll also cover the potential impact of new tariffs in South Korea and Canada and how that's playing into hedging strategies. Finally, with the Fed's latest decision looming, we unpack the broader struggle for capital: in a world where the DXY is under pressure and the European fiscal outlook remains weak, what is the ultimate alternative asset? Tune in for a deep dive into the forces driving crypto markets right now. Speakers:David Duong, CFA - Global Head of Investment Research (X: DavidDuong)Colin Basco - Research Associate (X: colin_basco) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The world order is shifting – the US is playing a global-scale game of Risk, the rand is getting stronger, and AI can't count its ABCs. Amidst the chaos, it's hard to know which market indicators to listen to. In this episode of Magic Markets, The Finance Ghost and Moe-Knows dive deep into why US Treasury yields aren't necessarily the best indicator of risk, while highlighting that the rand has clawed its way back to pre-Nenegate levels. From the potential for missiles to be flying over an annexed Greenland to how Dune can help us understand the oil supply chain, the Ghost and Moe unpack the geopolitical flashpoints that will define your portfolio this year. This week's Topics: The Dollar Index (DXY) vs yields: Why the 10-year Treasury yield is the wrong indicator for US risk right now. The rand's Lost Decade recovery: How the ZAR has clawed its way back to 2016 levels and what ‘fair value' means for your offshore timing. The death of "There's War, Buy Oil": Why geopolitical flares in Iran and Venezuela aren't spiking crude prices like they used to. The credit card cap trap: The unintended consequences of US interest rate caps on Visa, Mastercard, and American Express. Taiwan and the semiconductor tail risk: Why the US focus on Greenland and LatAm might be emboldening moves in the East. Reach out to us on X: @MagicMarketsPod, @FinanceGhost and @MohammedNalla or pop us a note on LinkedIn. Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes only and is not financial or investment advice. Please speak to your personal financial advisor. Chapters (00:00:00) - Introduction & is Canada the 51st State?(00:02:15) - The US and Geopolitical Risk(00:03:03) - The US 10-Year yield disconnect: Why isn't borrowing getting costlier?(00:04:07) - The DXY as the true expression of US risk(00:05:58) - South African Bonds: The carry trade darling and the SARB's credibility(00:08:04) - The rand's 10-year comeback and what fair value means for your offshore goals(00:10:52) - Central bank independence and gold as a safe haven against a dollar downdraft(00:13:01) - Interest rate caps: How US policy is hitting Amex and the banking sector(00:15:43) - Oil & Geopolitics: Venezuela, Iran, and the "Spice Must Flow" problem(00:21:11) - Taiwan, the semiconductor tail risk, and global choke points(00:23:12) - AI hallucinations: Why you shouldn't trust the bots just yet

Investing in Bizarro World Episodes: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLIAfIjKxr02sAztzlJNy1ug5bDvTVZkME&si=w2d_EF-B5jMo1dYD Subscribe to Investing In Bizarro World: @bizarroworld Editor's Note: Tonight (December 15th) at 8pm ET we'll be holding an event about private placement opportunities. We have just 100 spots left at Private Placement Intel, and expect to fill them in short order. We'll be offering the chance to participate in a private uranium deal alongside us. Click here to register before it's too late. Click here: https://bit.ly/48Go7xqThe free version of the 345th episode of Investing in Bizarro World is now published.Here's what was covered:Macro Musings - Silver stole the show again — ripping to $64 and putting a $70+ handle firmly on the table, especially with volatility collapsing. Copper remained a co-star, holding ~$5.48/lb and ~$11,500–$11,600/ton, with banks now openly talking about $12,000+/ton in 2026 to incentivize new supply. Gold remained strong in the background, framed as part of a broader “assets are headed higher” setup driven by the same forces we've been talking about all year. On the macro side, we hit the key “algorithm vs. real life” distinction again: the Fed cut 25 bps, inflation is “cooling” in the sense that the rate of change is coming down (rent measures softening; gasoline/diesel trending down), and that's enough cover for more cuts next year — especially with Powell out in May and the expectation of a more compliant chair. We also flagged renewed balance-sheet expansion via T-bill buying/QE, alongside a softening dollar (DXY ~98) — all of which is fuel for precious metals and the junior end of the market.Market Takes - We're now in the “next phase” of the bull market: silver outperforming gold, juniors starting to outperform producers, and “other metals joining the party.” The punchline: a lot of demand growth (AI/data centers and the grid buildout) still isn't fully captured in models — which is why “$7–$9 copper” doesn't sound crazy in a world where people also couldn't see $64 silver coming. There is still value in uranium and lithium (less loved versus precious metals right now), plus underfollowed explorers and “known-ounce” stories with the right team finally in place. A standout point was JPMorgan's positioning shift — from being a major silver short to being meaningfully long — as part of what's helped accelerate silver's move.Bizarro Banter - We hit hard on institutional rot this week: Epstein/Larry Summers, the credibility gap around promised disclosures, and the broader theme that “law and order” messaging is selectively applied while powerful institutions and individuals skate. We also hit the Catholic Church settlements/abuse scandal angle (NYC numbers being floated as a mediation starting point; other big settlements cited), and tied it back to the ongoing nature of these issues — not “something in the past.”Premium Portfolio Picks - For paid listeners only. Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/3KU37tJ0:00 Introduction1:05 Macro Musings: Uranium Placement. Silver Breakout. Fed Cuts. CPI vs Reality.16:41 Market Takes: Copper Supply Crunch. Silver to $70? VIX Collapse. Uranium & Lithium Value.27:27 Bizarro Banter: Epstein Files. Larry Summers. Institutional Rot. Church Abuse Scandals.45:16 Premium Portfolio Picks: (You need to subscribe to Bizarro World Live to get this section) Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/3KU37tJPLEASE NOTE: There are now two versions of this podcast. 1. Bizarro World Live — Pay $2 per episode to watch us record the podcast live every Thursday and get Premium Portfolio Picks every week. Plus an archive of all premium episodes. Subscribe here: https://bit.ly/3KU37tJ2. Bizarro World Free — Published the Monday after the live recording with no Premium Portfolio Picks.Visit our website Daily Profit Cycle for more content like this and more! https://dailyprofitcycle.com/

Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, warns that despite stock markets hitting all-time highs, the real economy is sinking fast - private job creation has fallen below recessionary levels seen in 2007, and 90% of US consumers are now worse off than going into both the 2008 financial crisis and the 1929 depression. Using his Titanic metaphor, he explains first class passengers (top 10%) are still at the bar while third class is already in the water. Zeberg predicts a blow-off top with the S&P potentially hitting 8,200 before a crash worse than 2008, driven by central bank hubris that will trigger stagflation when the Fed inevitably intervenes. He's long-term bullish on gold and silver but warns of a short-term pullback as the dollar spikes to 120+ on the DXY during the deflationary bust, and explains why there's no easy way out this time - we've exhausted the free lunch of money printing.This episode is brought to you by VanEck. Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: http://vaneck.com/REMXJuliaLinks: X: https://x.com/HenrikZebergSubstack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H00:00 Intro and welcome Henrik Zeberg01:22 Macro view, the real economy is about job creation, not financial markets04:13 90% of consumers worse off than going into 2008 and 192905:58 Titanic metaphor: First class denying while third class already in water06:56 Chart: ADP private job creation declining to recessionary levels08:26 Illusion of stability: Stock market disconnect from economy09:07 Stock market doesn't predict recessions - look at unemployment11:15 Zeberg business cycle model pointing to recession14:55  Bond market sniffing out problems - yield curve signals20:02 Central banks and the Fed: The hubris problem23:02 2020 changed everything - inflation is back as a factor25:26 Gold and silver starting to show end game signs26:20 If Fed intervenes with more stimulus, it creates stagflation28:03 Henrik's views on gold and silver clarified30:55 Dollar regime coming - DXY could spike32:12 Long-term bullish gold/silver but short-term pullback expected35:35 Navigating different regimes as an investor38:19 Strong dollar implications39:06 Current regime still risk-on, riding the blow off top43:29 Why this recession will be worse than 200848:21 No easy way out - we're at the end of the Keynesian curve49:12 Can we get back to sound money? Only through pain51:41 Under the radar trend: Realization of how bad consumer really is53:55 AI won't save us short-term - actually reduces jobs needed54:25 Wrap up: Think for yourself, do your own research

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr07/01 - Bolsa -1%, COGNA +7% e ASSAI -6%Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 4a. feira, dia 7 de janeiro, e feliz 2026 com muitas felicidades, sucesso, saúde e dinheiro para vc, investidor e investidora, e famílias. O Ibovespa caiu -1%, a 162,0 mil pontos, com volume baixo de R$ 20 bi, R$ 5 bi abaixo da média de R$ 25 bi das quartas de mercado em alta, influenciado negativamente pelas baixas de Axia, Bancos , Suzano, Localiza, B3 e C&A apesar de leve alta de Vale e Petrobras. Bolsas americanas reagiram de forma mista com Dow Jones -0,99% e Nasdaq +0,10% O dólar à vista quase estável, -0,09%, R$ 5,386, versus R$ 5,38, ontem. Na contramão do dólar norte-americano que subiu levemente 0,10%, frente a moedas fortes do DXY.Os juros no Brasil subiram com o Tesouro Prefixado 2035 atingindo a 13,66% x 13,63% a.a. ontem, e o IPCA+ 2029 a 7,76% de 7,73 a.a. na contramão dos juros dos títulos de 10 anos do tesouro americano que caiu para 4,14% de 4,17% a.a. Assista o vídeo e descubra as recomendações de curto prazo do Conde e Ricardo.

06/01 - Bolsa 1%, HAPV +8%, VIVA -3% e PETR -2%Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 3a. feira, dia 6 de janeiro, e feliz 2026 com muitas felicidades, sucesso, saúde e dinheiro para vc, investidor e investidora, e famílias. O Ibovespa subiu pelo segundo dia, alta de 1% a 163,4 mil pontos, com volume de R$ 22 bi, perto da média de R$ 25 bi das terças de mercado em alta, influenciado positivamente pelas altas de Vale, Axia, Bancos e B3 e apesar do recuo de Petrobras. O dólar à vista em baixa de 0,43%, R$ 5,38, versus R$ 5,44, na contramão do dólar norte-americano que subiu 0,29%, frente a moedas fortes do DXY.Os juros no Brasil subiram com o Tesouro Prefixado 2032 subindo a 13,55% x 13,51% a.a. ontem, e o IPCA+ 2029 a 7,73% de 7,71% a.a. Assista o vídeo e descubra as recomendações de curto prazo do Conde e Ricardo.

US President Trump announced on Saturday that the US successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela, while he added that President Maduro and his wife were captured and flown out of Venezuela.US President Trump said they are ready to stage a second strike if necessary and had assumed a second wave was needed, but now probably not.US President Trump signalled the US could widen its focus in the region to Cuba, and he will be meeting with House Republicans in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday. Further, Trump said it “sounds good” to him regarding whether there will be an operation in Colombia.European bourses are broadly in the green; US equity futures are mixed, with outperformance in the NQ. ASML +3% named top pick at Bernstein.DXY firmer on haven appeal, G10s subdued across the board to various degrees; Global fixed income slightly firmer with non-geopolitical updates somewhat light, ISM ahead.Choppy price action in the crude complex as geopolitics remain in focus; XAU gain on safe-haven demand; Copper raises following strength in the semiconductor sector.Looking ahead, highlights include US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Dec).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump warned that the US will “rescue” Iranian protestors if they are shot; the US is “locked and loaded and ready to go”.Ukrainian President Zelensky said they are 10% away from a deal to end the war with Russia but not ‘at any cost', according to The Independent.Ukrainian authorities in Zaporizhzhia on January 2nd noted of over 700 Russian attacks on the territory of the province "in the past hours", according to Al Jazeera.European bourses were boosted for most of the European morning, but have come off best levels in recent trade; US equity futures gain, with outperformance in the NQ.DXY is slightly firmer, Antipodeans lead whilst the EUR is pressured a touch.Fixed benchmarks are broadly lower, but are off worst levels in quiet trade.Precious metals rebound amid geopolitical updates, Crude focuses on oversupply pre-OPEC.Looking ahead, highlights include, Canadian & US Final Manufacturing PMIs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Looking at a weird GDP data point. Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks. Gold and Silver – WOW! Closing out the year – a good one too! PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Warm-Up - CTP Cup - All systems go! 9 participants! - Lots to be excited about and anxious too - Looking at a weird GDP data point - Calling BS on Russia/Ukraine peace talks Markets - Gold and Silver - WOW! - Closing out the year - a good one too! - Buyers are still hot to buy any dip - "Diet" pills coming Bitters Making Progress  - Chocolate -Dark Cherry -Infusions - https://highdesertbotanicals.com NYE Celebration - Cities across America ring in the new year by dropping unexpected objects: - Amelia Island, FL drops a giant shrimp. - Nashville drops a 400lb musical note with 28,140 LEDs. - Boise, ID, drops a glowing potato. - Key West, FL, drops an eight-foot ruby-red heel—complete with a drag queen inside! - In Spain, revelers gulp down 12 grapes—one for each midnight chime—to bring luck for each month - Denmark - Danes toss old dishes at friends' doors—large piles of broken crockery at dawn are seen as tokens of good luck. What a year! - So many themes in 12 months - AI, Tariffs, War and Trade War, Fat drugs, Deglobalization - Data centers, semiconductors, and supporting infrastructure like power and cooling systems. - Approx: DJIA +13.5%, SP500 +17%, NASDA +21%, BTCUSD -7.6%, Gold +64%, SLV +145%, $DXY -9.5%, EEM +30% - 2026 - Opportunities and Auld Lang Xiety (Tech still looks frothy in certain names) Top New Year's Resolutions - Exercise More - Eat Healthier - Save More Money/Get Out of Debt - Be Happy/Improve Mental Health - Lose Weight - Spend More Time with Family & Friends - Learn a New Skill/Hobby - Get Organized Active Management (Funds) - Same report annually - A small group of tech super stocks accounted for an outsize share of returns in 2025, extending a pattern in place for the better part of a decade. - Around $1 trillion was pulled from active equity mutual funds over the year, marking an 11th year of net outflows, while passive equity exchange-traded funds got more than $600 billion. - The concentration of gains in a few stocks made it harder for active managers to do well, with 73% of equity mutual funds trailing their benchmarks this year, the fourth most in data going back to 2007. - BUT, there are some areas that it makes sense for active management ---- Equity vs Fixed income and reasoning --- Efficient markets, boots on the ground Fat Pill - The FDA has approved the first-ever GLP-1 pill from Wegovy maker Novo Nordisk. - Novo Nordisk said the starting dose of 1.5 milligrams will be available in early January in pharmacies and via select telehealth providers with savings offers for $149 per month. - The approval gives Novo Nordisk a head start over chief rival Eli Lilly, which is racing to launch its own obesity pill. - Packaged food makers and fast-food restaurants may be forced to overhaul more of their products next year as newly approved, appetite-suppressing GLP-1 pills become available in January PowerBall - A ticket sold in Arkansas scored a $1.8 billion Powerball jackpot after Wednesday night's draw — one of the richest lottery prizes in U.S. history, landing just in time for Christmas. - The payout soared after last Monday's drawing produced no winners, with last-minute ticket sales pushing the jackpot to $1.817 billion. That makes it the second-largest U.S. lottery prize ever and the biggest Powerball of 2025, the lottery website said on Thursday. - The winning numbers — 4, 25, 31, 52, 59 and the Powerball 19 - Odds: one in 292.2 million. Silver - Amazing year! - Sunday night futures - >$83 then turned hard lower| - Down 7% on Monday - Range $83 - $71 (15%) for the day - Some rumors about a bank collapse due to wrong way position on Silver - forced liquidation and covering.... ----- Hard to believe that a bank was short that much silver - but..... SoKo Breach - South Korean online retail giant Coupang said it will offer 1.69 trillion South Korean won ($1.17 billion) in compensation to 34 million users affected by a massive data breach disclosed last month. - That is about 4% of Coupang's annual revenue - but a big chunk of their profit - $34 per user NVDA Deal - Nvidia has yet to issue a public announcement or disclosure regarding its $20 billion Groq deal that CNBC was first to cover on Wednesday. - Groq described the deal as a “non-exclusive licensing agreement,” a tool that's been used by tech giants of late in part to avoid regulatory scrutiny. - Analyst: “Antitrust would seem to be the primary risk here, though structuring the deal as a non-exclusive license may keep the fiction of competition alive,” Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon wrote in a report. - Groq will remain an independent company (?) GDP Consumption - Something is a bit off.... - With the marketplace costs increasing, this may be more than a one-off expenditure Q3 GDP Surge Russia/Ukraine - Less that an hour after the White House claimed great movement toward peace - Russian President Putin told President Trump that Russia will revise its negotiating position, raising questions over prospects for peace deal - Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov says Ukraine tried to attack Russian President Putin's residence - Does anyone even listen to the crap coming out of the White House anymore? - Did you hear Lutnick trying to explain the 600% reduction in costs for pharmaceuticals? Math wizards! - - For 2026, my wish is that they continue to work on the job at hand and just shut up Just for fun - Who is biggest drinker of spirits? - While there's no single official "heaviest drinker," legendary wrestler Andre the Giant is widely cited as having unmatched capacity, famously downing 119 beers in one sitting (or even up to 156 in other accounts) Oil - Crude oil futures down about 9.5% YTD - Much of the drop due to pick up in production (supply/demand) - Still a floor with as Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela etc - What will it take to move up? Best Auto Stock for 2025? - GM! Better than ford, Tesla and others (up 55%) - best year from coming out of bankruptcy in 2009 - Ford up 35% - Mary Barra, CEO selling into the strength - $73 M sold this year (Position down 73% from what she held last year) - - - Barra has contended for years that stock undervalued. With all of these say what does that say now? --- Would she ever say shares are overvalued? More fun stats - A peer?reviewed 2025 study estimates AI data centers (including indirect usage from electricity generation) consumed 312–765 billion liters of water annually. That's more than all bottled water consumed worldwide each year - Direct (on-site) water is used for cooling servers via systems like cooling towers or liquid loops. Indirect (off-site) water stems from electricity generation—particularly from thermal and nuclear plants, which require significant cooling resources - ??? Estimates suggest a single standard AI prompt (about 100 words) is linked to around 1.5 liters of water—accounting for the entire chain of consumption. (This is total usage from cooling powr consumption, electricity generation) - Global AI workloads consumed 50–60 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2025—roughly the annual electricity use of a medium-sized country like Switzerland. - By 2030, AI-related electricity demand could reach 300–500 TWh annually, according to energy analysts—comparable to the entire electricity consumption of countries like France. Over to Iran - President Trump tells reporters that if Iran is building up its nuclear program, the U.S. will have to "knock them down" again --- Wait - I thought we destroyed all of their nuke aspirations??? - - - AND - Iran's currency hit a record low, triggering wave of protests, according to Bloomberg Fed News - Top Fed Chair Candidate Odds Narrow Again, With Hassett at 43% and Warsh at 35% - President Trump still angry at Powell 0threating to sue for incompetence Odd - Tesla Inc. published a series of sales estimates indicating the outlook for its vehicle deliveries may be lower than many investors were expecting. - The carmaker posted estimates showing analysts on average expect the company to deliver 422,850 cars in the fourth quarter, down 15% from a year earlier. - Tesla is on course for its second consecutive drop in annual vehicle sales, with the company compiling an average estimate for 1.6 million deliveries, down more than 8% from a year earlier. - These are estimates published by analysts - Tesla put on its own site - WHY? End of Year Stat - The U.S. national debt is climbing at a rapid pace and has shown no signs of slowing down despite the growing criticism of massive levels of government spending. - The national debt, which measures what the U.S. owes its creditors, rose to $38,386,384,190,622.68 as of Dec. 30, according to the latest numbers published by the Treasury Department. - That is an increase of about $5.8 billion daily - ~$18 per person in the US per day increase ($7,300) - or about the monthly price of leasing a small Mercedes - Each person in US owes approx $128,000 Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? THE CLOSEST TO THE PIN 2025 Winners will be getting great stuff like the new "OFFICIAL" DHUnplugged Shirt! CTP CUP 2025 Participants: Jim Beaver Mike Kazmierczak Joe Metzger Ken Degel David Martin Dean Wormell Neil Larion Mary Lou Schwarzer Eric Harvey (2024 Winner) FED AND CRYPTO LIMERICKS See this week's stock picks HERE Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter

Japan is to reduce its new issuance of super-long JGBs next fiscal year to around JPY 17tln, according to Reuters sources.European equity futures are closed as Eurex observes the Christmas Eve holiday. US equity futures are very modestly lower in thin conditions.DXY is flat, JPY is very mildly stronger continuing recent advances.JGBs soft overnight but have been driven higher in recent trade, USTs flat.Crude benchmarks are incrementally firmer, with spot gold also steady.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (w/e 20 Dec), Supply from the US.Note: The Newsquawk desk will run until 18:05GMT/13:05EST on Wednesday, 24th December. FOMC Minutes on 30th December 2025 will be covered. Normal service will resume at 0700GMT/02:00EST on Friday 2nd of January 2026 for the beginning of the European Session. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed and within narrow ranges following a largely positive lead from Wall Street. APAC lacked conviction amid light newsflow and anaemic volumes as markets wound down ahead of the holidays.DXY was choppy, and JPY strengthened before trimming some gains. G10 FX largely moved with the USD.Spot gold and silver both hit fresh all-time highs at above USD 4,500/oz and USD 72.70/bbl. European equity futures are closed as Eurex observes the Christmas Eve holiday. UK equity futures point to a flat open, with FTSE 100 futures U/C after the cash market closed 0.2% higher on Tuesday.Looking ahead, highlights include US Jobless Claims (w/e 20 Dec), Supply from the US.Note: The Newsquawk desk will run until 18:05GMT/13:05EST on Wednesday, 24th December. FOMC Minutes on 30th December 2025 will be covered. Normal service will resume at 0700GMT/02:00EST on Friday 2nd of January 2026 for the beginning of the European Session. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said US will keep ships and oil seized near Venezuela.European bourses are mixed on either side of the unchanged mark, US equity futures are mostly incrementally firmer ahead of US data.DXY is under pressure whilst the JPY continues to strengthen; Antipodeans benefit from strength in metals prices.JGBs lead global fixed income higher after PM Takaichi rejected any "irresponsible bond issuance or tax cuts", via a Nikkei interview.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound, whilst spot gold eyes USD 4.5k/oz to the upside.Looking ahead, highlights include US Richmond Fed (Dec), Durable Goods (Oct), GDP Advance (Oct), PCE Prices (Q3), Industrial Production, Consumer Confidence, Canadian GDP, BoC Minutes (Dec Meeting), Supply from US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump's administration initiated a multi-agency review of NVIDIA (NVDA) H200 licenses for sales to China, according to sources cited by Reuters.US President Trump is scheduled to make an announcement at 13:00EST/18:00GMT on Friday and will deliver remarks on the economy at 21:00EST/02:00GMT.European bourses are mixed whilst US equity futures are broadly firmer, with outperformance in the NQ.DXY is firmer, whilst the JPY underperforms; the BoJ hiked rates by 25bps as expected, though Governor Ueda avoided explicitly guiding future policy.Global fixed benchmarks generally pressured but with price action fairly muted.Crude benchmarks trade muted as EU agree on Ukraine loans; XAU trades rangebound after failing to break above USD 4350/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales (Oct), EZ Consumer Confidence (Dec), US Employment Trends (Nov). Speakers include ECB's Lane & Fed's Williams.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will soon announce the next Fed chair and that the new Fed chair will believe in lowering interest rates by a lot.European bourses are mostly firmer; US equity futures also gain, with mild outperformance in the NQ.DXY is slightly firmer as traders await US CPI; GBP underperforms a touch ahead of the BoE, EUR awaits the ECB.Fixed income grinds higher; Bunds saw some modest downticks after Germany's DFA announced their 2026 issuance plan, which came in slightly above analyst expectations.Crude complex was initially firmer but now hovering just above the unchanged mark, as Trump avoided mentioning Venezuela/Russia in his primetime address.Looking ahead, highlights include US CPI (Nov), Jobless Claims (w/e 13 Dec), Philly Fed (Dec), Japanese CPI (Nov), NZ Trade Balance (Nov), ECB Announcement, BoE Announcement, CNB Announcement, Banxico Announcement. Speakers include ECB's Lagarde & BoE's Bailey, Supply from US, Earnings from Carnival, Nike & FedEx.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump is to give an address to the nation on Wednesday night, live from the White House at 21:00EST (02:00GMT Thursday). White House Press Secretary said that Trump's address will be about accomplishments, while he will talk about what's to come and maybe tease new year policies.European bourses are mostly stronger this morning, with US equity futures also posting modest upside.DXY is firmer, the GBP has been hit after the UK's cooler-than-expected inflation report, which near-enough cements a BoE cut this week.Gilts outperform on the UK's data whilst USTs hold a downward bias.Crude benchmarks reverse Tuesday's losses following the blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers and reports of new Russian energy sanctions if Russia rejects the peace deal; XAU and Copper trading with slight gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Waller, Williams & Bostic, Supply from US, Earnings from Micron, New Zealand GDP (Q3).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr17/12 -Bolsa -1%, Dólar R$ 5,50, BRAVA +5% e B3 -4% Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e Ricardo Afonso, hoje é 4a. feira, dia 17 de dezembro, e sugiro assistirem o Mata-Mata: “VALE (VALE3) Ações Podem Subir a R$ 85 em Dez/26” que está muito bom. O Ibovespa fechou com forte baixa de -2,1% a 159 mil pontos, com volume alto, de novo em R$ 28 bi, R$ 3 bi acima da média das quartas de outubro e novembro. As bolsas dos EUA caíram de novo com Nasdaq -1,5% e Dow -0,4% - com ações da Oracle caindo -5% depois que o Financial Times noticiou que os planos da Blue Owl Capital para financiar o data center de US$ 10 bilhões da empresa de infraestrutura em nuvem em Michigan fracassaram. O dólar comercial em alta 0,90%, aos R$ 5,51 de R$ 5,46, ontem, seguindo o dólar norte-americano que subiu 0,25% frente a moedas fortes do DXY com a intenção do Fed de não cortar juros em janeiro.Os juros no Brasil subiram bem com o Tesouro Prefixado 2032 a 13,86% x 13,58% a.a., ontem, e o IPCA+ 2029 em 7,98% de 7,83% a.a. acompanhando a alta do dólar.Assista no vídeo as recomendações de Conde e Ricardo.

Ative seu cupom Flavio Conde pra a consultoria personalizada https://lvnt.app/61t6dr16/12 - Lula na frente de Flávio e Tarcísio derruba -2% a Bolsa Olá, sejam bem-vindo a mais um Fechamento de Mercado, comigo Flávio Conde e Ricardo Afonso não participará por problema de internet, hoje é 3a. feira, dia 16 de dezembro, e sugiro assistirem o Mata-Mata: “VALE (VALE3) Ações Podem Subir a R$ 85 em Dez/26” que está muito bom. O Ibovespa fechou com forte baixa de -2,1% a 159 mil pontos, com volume alto de R$ 28 bi, R$ 3 bi acima da média das terças de outubro e novembro. O principal motivo da queda de hoje foi a pesquisa da Quaest para presidente da república em 2026: a. no 1º. turno, Lula aparecendo com 41% das intenções de voto, à frente do senador Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ), que soma 23%, e do governador de São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos), com 10%. O levantamento reforça a dianteira do presidente também nos cenários de 2º. turno. Em uma eventual disputa direta contra Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula venceria por 46% a 36%. Já no confronto com Tarcísio de Freitas, o placar seria de 45% a 35%, segundo os dados da pesquisa. Secundariamente, a ata conservadora do COPOM/BC praticamente zerou aa chance de cortes de juros da Selic em janeiro e, assim, a expectativa fica mais distante podendo ocorrer apenas em 18 de março. A combinação dos eventos citados fizeram o dólar e juros subirem.As bolsas dos EUA apresentaram comportamento misto com Nasdaq 0,36% e Dow -0,51% - com ações da Tesla liderando as 7 big techs com o potencial lançamento do robotaxi pela cia. e a preparação do IPO de SpaceX. Porém, as ações da velha economia do Dow Jones recuaram os dados do payroll de outubro (mês do shutdown) cortando 105 mil empregos e novembro recuperando 64 mil. O saldo negativo de 41 mil empregos cortados em dois meses bem acima do esperado e a taxa de desemprego subiu para 4,6%, no maior nível desde setembro de 2021, sugerindo que a economia americana está realmente enfraquecendo. O dólar comercial em alta 0,78%, aos R$ 5,465 de R$ 5,42 ontem, na contramão do dólar norte-americano recuou -0,17% frente a moedas fortes do DXY depois dos dados mais fracos do emprego nos EUA. A pesquisa da Quaest com Lula liderando e sendo reeleito fez o dólar subir.Os juros no Brasil subiram com o Tesouro Prefixado 2032 a 13,58% x 13,48% a.a., ontem, e o IPCA+ 2029 em 7,83% de 7,77% a.a. A pesquisa da Quaest com Lula liderando e sendo reeleito fez os juros subirem porque Lula 4 aumentaria mais ainda a dívida pública/PIB com déficits fiscais bilionários em cada ano de mandato. Assista no vídeo as recomendações de Conde e Ricardo.

The BoJ Tankan survey showed sentiment of Large Manufacturers was at the highest in four years, which supports the case for a rate hike.European bourses are entirely in the green, with US equity futures also firmer; the RTY outperforms.DXY is a touch lower, whilst the JPY outperforms amidst growing bets of a BoJ hike this week and the Tankan Survey; the Kiwi underperforms after the RBNZ Governor suggested that market conditions have tightened “beyond” what the RBNZ intended.Global bonds are firmer across the board; USTs are currently firmer by c. 5 ticks.Crude benchmarks were initially firmer, but are now mildly lower as traders digest President Zelensky's potential concessions of Ukraine's NATO membership goals; XAU gains.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian CPI (Nov), US Advance Goods Trade Balance (Sep), Australian PMI (Dec), Speakers including Fed's Miran, Williams & RBA's Jones.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they would help on security with Ukraine, and he thought they were close to a deal.US President Trump said that it is going to start on land soon regarding Venezuela; the US is reportedly preparing to seize more ships transporting Venezuelan oil.European bourses are in the green whilst US equity futures are mixed, and with underperformance in the tech-heavy NQ as Broadcom falls 4.9% in post-earnings.DXY is a little firmer, GBP incrementally pressured on a poor UK GDP report.Global bonds are mildly pressured, scaling back recent upside.XAU continues to trend higher above USD 4300/oz; Copper pulling back from another ATH.Looking ahead, highlights include Fed's Paulson, Hammack, Goolsbee, Schmid & Miran.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened lower but now marginally firmer, US equity futures are in the red, with underperformance in the NQ following Oracle (-11%) earnings.DXY initially attempted to pare post-FOMC pressure, but now flat, CHF little moved to the SNB announcement, but gained on the presser, the Aussie is pressured post-jobs data.USTs continue to strengthen in the aftermath of the FOMC, whilst Bunds pull back from highs.Crude benchmarks are selling off despite a bullish IEA report; XAU pares back FOMC gains; Copper pulls back from ATHs.Looking ahead, highlights include US Initial Jobless Claims (6 Dec, w/e), OPEC MOMR, Supply from the US, Earnings from Broadcom, Costco & lululemon.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced that he informed Chinese President Xi that the US will allow NVIDIA (NVDA) to ship its H200 products to approved customers. Though the FT reported that China is set to limit access of NVIDIA's H200 chips; NVDA shares off best levels, last +0.5%.European bourses are broadly lower, US equity futures are mixed with the NQ dipping into modest negative territory after the FT report on NVIDIA.DXY hovers around 99.00, Antipodeans rise post RBA, and JPY remains subdued, but did gain on Ueda-FX related commentary.Global paper was initially subdued but now firmer, OATs await French vote.Crude benchmarks trade rangebound ahead of the EIA STEO, Copper continues to pull back from ATHs.Looking ahead, highlights include US Average Weekly Prelim Estimate ADP (4-week, w/e 22 Nov), JOLTS (Sep), EIA STEO, Speakers including BoE's Ramsden, Lombardelli, Mann, Dhingra & RBNZ's Breman, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Send us a textWhat if the cleanest read on market risk isn't a sentiment index but the dollar itself? We connect the dots from DXY's slide and rebound to the invisible gears of Eurodollar credit, showing how collateral breathes through trade invoices, repos, and leverage, and how that breath has begun to shorten. From port softness and a reported 17% drop in trucking volumes to tighter haircuts and slower factoring, we map the quiet contraction that can force risk assets to pay a toll in the form of sharp pullbacks.We dig into why professionals rarely short meme‑charged leaders like Palantir even when valuations look unhinged, and how the “malicious” habit of strong markets is to snap back toward the one‑year moving average before pushing higher. Along the way, we revisit the Supreme Court's tariff signals, the politics of New York's vote, and the way those headlines filter into liquidity creation via trade flows. On jobs, we unpack an ADP beat that hides softness in information and professional services while healthcare and utilities carry the print, and we talk frankly about how AI threatens a quarter of tasks, particularly in admin and legal support.Finally, we ask a contrarian question: is Apple right to avoid an AI capex arms race? Preserving balance sheet flexibility might be the smarter bet if we're edging toward a collateral recession where financing gets stingier and optionality becomes a moat. Expect volatility, not apocalypse; respect the cadence of liquidity; and plan for violent, normal pullbacks within long trends. If this perspective challenges how you track markets, follow, share with a friend, and leave a quick review. What's your top stress indicator right now?Support the show⬇️ Subscribe on Patreon or Substack for full episodes ⬇️https://www.patreon.com/HughHendryhttps://hughhendry.substack.comhttps://www.instagram.com/hughhendryofficialhttps://blancbleustbarts.comhttps://www.instagram.com/blancbleuofficial⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ Leave a five star review and comment on Apple Podcasts!