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European bourses opened mostly firmer but now display a mixed picture; NVDA +0.5% into earnings.DXY rises following prior day's losses and risk aversion; Aussie fails to benefit from earlier upside post-CPI.USTs steady, Bunds/Gilts are bid albeit with little newsflow, but as the risk tone dipped a touch.Industrials trade softer on risk aversion, gold holds its ground despite Dollar strength.Looking ahead, Comments from Fed's Barkin, Supply from the US, Earnings from NVIDIA, Snowflake, CrowdStrike, HP Inc. & Kohl's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the week on the front foot as the region took its opportunity to react to the dovish comments by Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.5% on Friday.DXY is a touch firmer but unable to recover much of Friday's lost ground. EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.Bund futures have faded some of last Friday's gains, crude futures are steady.Looking ahead, highlights include German Ifo (Aug), US National Activity (Jul), Comments from Fed's Logan and Supply from the EU.Note, today is a UK bank holiday. The desk is open as usual. Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Chinese President Xi is unlikely to attend ASEAN Leaders' Summit in October, "dashing hopes of a meeting with US President Trump at the summit"; while Premier Li is set to represent China, according to two regional sources cited by ReutersEuropean bourses move higher; US equity futures also gain as the RTY +0.4% outperforms; NVIDIA -1% after H20 production halt.DXY holds an upward bias post-PMIs on Thursday, whilst fixed income trades steady into Fed Chair Powell.Choppy trade in the crude complex, as traders digest halts to the Druzhba pipeline; sideways trade across precious metals.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Retail Sales, Fed's Jackson Hole Symposium (August 21st-23rd); Speakers include Fed Chair Powell, Hammack and Collins.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after a lacklustre performance stateside, where mega-cap tech led the declines.RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25bps as expected, cut its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps reduction.European equity futures indicate a negative cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.7% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.9% on Tuesday.DXY is marginally higher for a third session in a row, NZD lags post-RBNZ, GBP eyes inflation data.White House is eyeing Budapest for peace talks with Zelensky and Putin, according to Politico.Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, EZ HICP (Final), Riksbank Policy Announcement & FOMC Minutes, Speakers including ECB's Lagarde, Fed's Bostic & Waller, Supply from Germany & US, Earnings from Target.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses opened lower but have clambered back to the unchanged mark; US futures remain on the backfoot.DXY is flat, GBP digests hot UK CPI, NZD lags after the RBNZ delivered a dovish 25bps cut.RBNZ lowered the OCR by 25bps as expected, cut its OCR forecasts across the projection horizon and voted on the options of either a 25bps or 50bps reduction.USTs underperform into 20yr auction, Bunds bid on German Producer Prices, Gilts initially lagged on CPI but now firmer.Looking ahead, highlights include FOMC Minutes, Speakers including Fed's Bostic, Waller and reported Fed Chair candidate Zervos, Supply from the US, Earnings from Target.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.APAC stocks began the week mostly higher following the recent Trump-Putin summit; Europe is set for a firmer open.DXY is steady with traders mindful of Jackson Hole later in the week, JPY narrowly lags across the majors.Crude futures were little changed post-Trump-Putin meeting, spot gold saw two-way price action before gaining.Looking ahead, highlights include US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European LeadersRead the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Trump hailed great progress at Putin meeting, but one or two significant items; no ceasefire was achieved.Trump to meet with European leaders and Zelensky later today; Zelensky supports trilateral meeting between Ukraine, the US and Russia.Kremlin said a trilateral summit with Ukraine was not discussed yet and there is no date set for another Trump-Putin meeting.European bourses are modestly lower in the aftermath of the Trump-Putin summit; US futures are mixed/modestly lower.DXY edges higher, EUR subdued post Trump-Putin, Antipodeans resilient.Bonds are bid, in-fitting with the apprehensive risk tone into an evening of US meetings.Crude complex initially little changed but now firmer ahead of US-Ukraine/EU/NATO today.Looking ahead, US President Trump meeting with Ukrainian President Zelensky and European Leaders. Commentary from Fed's Bowman.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher as the region took impetus from the gains stateside where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at record highs.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said will need to see months, if not a year, of progress on fentanyl flows before Chinese tariffs come down.US Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the Fed should think about a 50bp cut in September.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.4% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1% on Tuesday.DXY has stabilised after yesterday's selling pressure, EUR/USD ran out of steam ahead of 1.17, Cable has reclaimed 1.35.Looking ahead, highlights include German Final CPI (Jul), Spanish Final CPI (Jul), IEA OMR, BoC Minutes, US President Trump is to meet with E3 and Ukraine, speakers include Treasury Secretary Bessent, Fed's Bakin, Goolsbee & Bostic, supply from Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump signed an Executive Order that will extend the tariff suspension on China for another 90 days.US President Trump announced on Truth Social that gold will not be tariffed.Fed Governor Bowman, Fed Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed President Logan are reportedly under consideration for Fed Chair, according to Bloomberg.APAC stocks traded mostly higher (Japan outperformed post-holiday), Europe expected to open firmer (Eurostoxx 50 future +0.3%).DXY steady, AUD little changed after widely expected RBA rate cut, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle.US President Trump said there will be some swapping and changes in land between Russia and Ukraine.Looking ahead, highlights include UK Jobs Report (Jun), German ZEW Survey (Aug), US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR, Fed's Barkin & Schmid, supply from the UK.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses are modestly firmer, whilst US futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark into US CPI.DXY flat, GBP rises post-data, EUR choppy, and AUD narrowly lag post RBA.USTs/Bunds rangebound into US CPI, whilst Gilts lag after jobs data.Crude is choppy with focus on Russia-Ukraine with Zelensky flagging a fresh Russian offensive ahead of Friday talks.Looking ahead, US CPI (Jul), EIA STEO, OPEC MOMR, Speakers including, Fed's Barkin & Schmid, Earnings from CoreWeave.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15th in Alaska; White House is considering inviting Ukrainian President Zelensky.Fed's Bowman (voter) said that the latest job market data reinforces her forecast for three rate cuts this year.Fed Chair list now said to include former St. Louis Fed President Bullard and former George W. Bush adviser Sumerlin, according to WSJ.European bourses opened firmer but dipped lower as the risk tone deteriorated, US futures are mixed; NVIDIA -1% & AMD -2% to pay 15% of Chinese chip sale revenue to US Government.Choppy trade in FX amidst quiet newsflow ahead of this week's risk events; DXY is flat.Bonds are bid as the risk tone deteriorates ahead of a packed weekly docket; Gilts outperform.Crude initially subdued on the US-Russia meeting, but now flat; XAU continues to edge lower currently around USD 3,356/oz.Looking ahead, highlights include BoC SLOS (Q2).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly in the green but with gains limited in the absence of notable catalysts from over the weekend and Japan away from market.US President Trump said he will meet with Russian President Putin on August 15th in Alaska; White House is considering inviting Zelensky.Fed's Bowman (voter) said that the latest job market data reinforces her forecast for three rate cuts this year.Fed Chair list now said to include former St. Louis Fed President Bullard and former George W. Bush adviser Sumerlin, according to WSJ.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.3% on Friday.DXY is a touch softer, EUR is the marginal outperformer across the majors with price action overall contained.Looking ahead, highlights include Norwegian CPI (Jul) & BoC SLOS (Q2).Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

On this episode of Heard Tell, we turn down the noise on economic headlines and the interwebs and talking head reaction to them, by asking our economist friend Dr. Stephen Popick to explain them so well even host Andrew can understand it. Why wages are what they are including the living wage and minimum wage debates, rent vs mortgage debate, why the housing crisis is also a political crisis, why inflation and high prices are and are not the same thing, why natural ups and downs of the economy are not compatible with politics and news cycles, and much more.All that and more on this episode of Heard Tell.DXY chart references: https://w.wiki/EyNNMortgage vs Rent char referenced: MBA Chart of the Week: Mortgage Payment to Rent Ratio --------------------Heard Tell SubStack Free to subscribe, comes right to your inboxhttps://heardtell.substack.com/Questions, comments, concerns, ideas, or epistles? Email us HeardTellShow@gmail.comPlease follow @HeardTellShow like the program, comment with your thoughts, and share with others.Support Heard Tell here: https://app.redcircle.com/shows/4b87f374-cace-44ea-960c-30f9bf37bcff/donationsAll that and more on this episode of Heard Tell.--------------------Heard Tell SubStack Free to subscribe, comes right to your inboxhttps://heardtell.substack.com/Questions, comments, concerns, ideas, or epistles? Email us HeardTellShow@gmail.comPlease follow @HeardTellShow like the program, comment with your thoughts, and share with others.Support Heard Tell here: https://app.redcircle.com/shows/4b87f374-cace-44ea-960c-30f9bf37bcff/donationsSupport this podcast at — https://redcircle.com/heard-tell/donationsAdvertising Inquiries: https://redcircle.com/brandsPrivacy & Opt-Out: https://redcircle.com/privacy

POTUS suggested there will be India tariff talks until things are resolved; Bessent said China tariffs can be on the table "at some point".Trump appointed CEA Chair Miran as a temporary replacement to fill Kugler's seat at the Fed; BBG reported that Waller is now favourite for Chair.European futures point to a firmer cash open, APAC handover mixed amid earnings and into tariff updates.DXY firmer with G10s mixed/flat, USTs weak following a poor 30yr tapCrude remained near Thursday's lows with newsflow since the Putin-Trump updates light, gold indecisive, copper firmerLooking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Japanese LDP Joint Plenary Meeting, Speakers including BoE's Pill & Fed's Musalem, Earnings from fuboTV, Tempus AI, Wendy's, AMC Networks, Munich Re & Bechtle.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

POTUS suggested there will be no India tariff talks until things are resolved; Bessent said China tariffs can be on the table "at some point".European bourses are mostly incrementally firmer in quiet newsflow; US futures are also marginally higher, with some mild outperformance in the RTY.DXY is modestly higher, paring some of the downside seen in the prior day; JPY underperforms.Bonds hold a slight bearish bias, Gilts in focus and lagging pre-Pill.Initial downward bias in crude complex has since reversed, to trade slightly higher; XAU flat.Looking ahead, Canadian Jobs Report (Jul), Japanese LDP Joint Plenary Meeting, Speakers including BoE's Pill & Fed's Musalem, Earnings from fuboTV, Tempus AI, Wendy's.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Tomás Goulart debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, os destaques foram a repercussão do último relatório de emprego dos EUA e possíveis mudanças na composição do Federal Reserve. O presidente Donald Trump indicou, para um mandato temporário no board do Fed, Stephen Miran, atual presidente do Conselho de Assessores Econômicos. A escolha foi interpretada como um movimento para tornar a autoridade monetária mais alinhada ao presidente. Paralelamente, a leitura mais fraca dos dados de emprego levou algumas consultorias globais a colocar no radar a possibilidade de um corte de 50 bps na reunião de setembro. De dado econômico, tivemos o ISM de serviços, que veio pior do que o esperado, com fraqueza em novas ordens e reafirmando um enfraquecimento no mercado de trabalho. Também entrou em vigor o novo pacote de tarifas de importação norte-americanas, reforçando preocupações com o comércio global. No Brasil, a semana começou com a decretação da prisão domiciliar do ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro por participação nos atos do domingo anterior. O episódio provocou forte reação de deputados bolsonaristas, que chegaram a assumir temporariamente a presidência da Câmara em protesto. Após negociações, foi firmado um acordo para votação de pautas de interesse do grupo, restabelecendo a normalidade na Casa. No campo econômico, a ata do Copom veio levemente mais dovish que o esperado, com o Banco Central mais confiante na desaceleração da atividade, embora mantendo a sinalização de juros elevados por período prolongado. Os dados de mercado de trabalho de junho ficaram ligeiramente abaixo das projeções, mas ainda indicam um mercado aquecido. Nos mercados internacionais, os juros dos Treasuries abriram taxa após forte fechamento na semana anterior (Treasury de 2 anos: +8 bps). As bolsas americanas avançaram — S&P 500 +2,34%, Nasdaq +3,61% e Russell 2000 +2,53% — e o dólar (DXY) recuou 0,89%, refletindo um enfraquecimento global da moeda. No Brasil, a curva de juros fechou (Jan/31: -17 bps), o Ibovespa subiu 2,68% e o real se valorizou 1,90% frente ao dólar. Para a próxima semana, o foco estará no IPCA e nos indicadores de atividade no Brasil, enquanto, nos EUA, a atenção se volta para a divulgação dos números de inflação.

APAC stocks traded somewhat mixed following the subdued handover from Wall St post-ISM services.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.1%.DXY is flat, EUR/USD remains on a 1.15 handle and capped by its 200DMA, and antipodeans marginally lead.RBI kept the Repurchase Rate unchanged at 5.50%, as expected, and maintained a neutral stance.Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Orders (Jun), EZ Construction PMIs (Jul), EZ Retail Sales (Jun), Italian Industrial Output, Fed's Collins, Cook and Daly, Supply from Germany & US.Earnings from Airbnb, Lyft, Uber, Shopify, Walt Disney, McDonald's, Novo Nordisk, Siemens Energy, Commerzbank, Bayer, Fresenius, Beiersdorf, ABN AMRO & Glencore.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly higher following the rally on Wall St where the major indices clawed back post-NFP losses.European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market finished with gains of 1.5% on Monday.DXY trades higher, but remains below the 99.0 mark, EUR/USD retains its position on a 1.15 handle.Fed's Daly (2027 voter) said two rate cuts this year still seems to be the appropriate amount of recalibration.Looking ahead, highlights include Global Composite and Services Final PMIs, EZ Producer Prices, Canadian Trade, US ISM Services, International Trade Balance, RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, New Zealand Jobs, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from AMD, Arista Networks, Snap, Pfizer, Caterpillar, BP, Diageo, Fresnillo, Infineon, Deutsche Post, Fresenius Medical Care, Continental, Hugo Boss, Bper Banca & Telecom Italia.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following a quiet weekend of newsflow and last Friday's disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data.US President Trump said on Sunday that he will announce a new head of BLS in the next three or four days.US President Trump said he is to announce a replacement for Fed's Kugler in the next couple of days after Kugler resigned on Friday.European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with the Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.4% after the cash market suffered losses of 2.9% on Friday.DXY is a touch firmer after Friday's selling pressure, EUR/USD ran out of steam ahead of 1.16, USD/JPY trades on a 147 handle.Crude slightly lower after OPEC+ agreed to increase oil output by 548k BPD in September.Looking ahead, highlights include Swiss CPI (Jul), EZ Sentix Index Aug), US Employment Trends (Jun), Durable Goods R (Jun) & Factory Orders.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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Nossos sócios Luiz Eduardo Portella, Sarah Campos e Yara Cordeiro debatem, no episódio de hoje, os principais acontecimentos da semana no Brasil e no mundo. No cenário internacional, o destaque foi a decisão do Fed, que manteve os juros inalterados, como esperado. O Powell adotou tom um pouco mais hawk na conferência de imprensa, evitando sinalizar corte em setembro e reforçando a necessidade de observar os próximos dados de inflação e emprego. O payroll decepcionou, principalmente por conta das expressivas revisões baixistas dos dois meses anteriores. O ISM de manufaturas veio fraco, com destaque negativo para o componente de emprego; e o PIB do 2º trimestre trouxe headline forte, apesar da demanda doméstica fraca. A tensão com o Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) aumentou após críticas e demissão da líder de estatística por parte de Trump, que também indicará novo nome ao board do Fed após o anúncio de saída da dirigente Adriana Kugler. No Brasil, o Copom manteve a Selic em 15% e reforçou a necessidade de cautela, com possibilidade de retomada do ciclo de alta caso seja necessário. O mercado de trabalho seguiu robusto em junho. Em contrapartida, os indicadores de confiança (julho) e a produção industrial (junho) mostraram sinais de fraqueza, reforçando desaceleração da atividade. No campo comercial, o governo americano excluiu parte dos produtos brasileiros da tarifa adicional de 40%, postergando a vigência da medida para 07/08. O governo brasileiro segue indicando tentativa de negociação, mas já prepara pacote de ajuda aos setores mais afetados. Por fim, foi oficializada a sanção do ministro Alexandre de Moraes sob a Lei Magnitsky. Nos EUA, os juros fecharam (vértice de 1 ano -25 bps), e as bolsas recuaram – S&P 500 -2,36%, Nasdaq -2,19% e Russell 2000 -4,17%. O dólar (DXY) subiu 1,07%. No Brasil, os juros também fecharam (jan/31 -11 bps), o Ibovespa caiu 0,81% e o real subiu 0,40%. Na próxima semana, destaque para ata do Copom, Caged, e manifestações políticas no Brasil e, nos EUA, dados de atividade (ISM de serviços) e eventuais novas indicações de tarifas. Não deixe de conferir!

Fed kept rates on hold with dissent from Waller and Bowman. Powell said will not let tariffs become inflationary.BoJ maintained rates as expected, raised growth and inflation outlook. Continued to note uncertainty over trade.US equity futures rebounded after-hours with strength in tech/AI-related names after Microsoft (+8.3%) and Meta (+11.5%) smashed Q2 earnings.US President Trump announced that South Korea will be subject to a 15% and make USD 350bln in investments in the US.European equity futures suggest a mildly positive open. Hang Seng lags post-disappointing Chinese PMIs.DXY rally pauses for breath, EUR/USD remains on a 1.14 handle. USTs rebounded off the lows after post-Powell pressure.Looking ahead, highlights include French CPI, PPI, German Unemployment Rate, CPI, EZ Unemployment Rate, Italian CPI, US Challenger Layoffs, PCE (Jun), Jobless Claims, Employment Wages, Chicago PMI, Atlanta Fed GDPNow, Canadian GDP, SARB Policy Announcement.Earnings from Shell, Unilever, LSE, Haleon, Standard Chartered, Anglo American, Sanofi, Schneider Electric, Safran, Credit Agricole, Saint Gobain, SocGen, Accor, Teleperformance, Air France, AB InBev, BBVA, Holcim Puma, Lufthansa, BMW, Apple, Amazon, Strategy, Coinbase, Reddit, Roku, CVS, Roblox, AbbVie, Norwegian Cruise Line, Cigna, Mastercard & PG&E.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

EU and US agreed on a trade deal with 15% tariffs; EU to buy USD 750bln in US energy, and make USD 600bln in investments.EC President von der Leyen later confirmed the 15% rate is for a vast majority of EU exports including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals; 50% tariff on steel and aluminium remains.US and China are expected to extend the trade truce by 90 days, according to SCMP. Reuters suggested that talks are to begin in the “afternoon” in Sweden.European bourses cheer EU-US trade deal, but are off best levels; US futures are modestly higher.DXY picks up and EUR pulls back as participants digest the EU-US trade deal, whilst Antipodeans lag.Bonds were initially hit on the EU-US trade deal, but have since reversed to trade firmer on the session.Crude picks up on trade optimism and into OPEC+ JMMC, gold remains steady.Looking ahead, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, Treasury Financing Estimates, OPEC+ JMMC, US and China talks in Stockholm, Supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

EU and US agreed on a trade deal with 15% tariffs; EU to buy USD 750bln in US energy, and make USD 600bln in investments.EC President von der Leyen later confirmed the 15% rate is for a vast majority of EU exports including cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals; 50% tariff on steel and aluminium remains.US and China are expected to extend the trade truce by 90 days, according to SCMP.APAC stocks are mixed with Japan lagging due to political uncertainty, US futures are higher (ES +0.5%), Europe set to open firmer (Eurostoxx 50 future +1%).DXY is steady with FX markets broadly contained, EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle, USD/JPY failed to hold above the 148 mark.Looking ahead, highlights include Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index, Treasury Financing Estimates, OPEC+ JMMC, US and China talks in Stockholm, supply from the US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said he spoke with Fed Chair Powell on rates and the meeting was productive, while he noted that there was no tension and he repeated several times that he believes Powell will do the right thing.European bourses are under pressure but off worst levels, LVMH +4% post-earnings; US futures trade mixed around the unchanged mark.DXY is a touch higher, JPY lags, GBP digests retail sales miss.USTs essentially flat, Bunds weighed on by continued ECB repricing.Gold loses its shine while Crude remains rangebound awaiting the next catalyst.Looking ahead, US Durable Goods, Atlanta Fed GDPNow. Earnings from AutoNation & AON.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump announced trade deals with the Philippines, Indonesia and Japan, with the latter involving a USD 550bln investment in the US and 15% tariffs for Japanese goods.US stocks closed mixed with underperformance in tech, APAC stocks were mostly higher; Nikkei 225 outperformed.Japanese PM Ishiba is likely to announce resignation as early as this month, according to Yomiuri. Other reports suggest August-end. European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 1.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.0% on Tuesday.DXY is flat, havens (CHF, JPY) lag G10 peers, antipodeans lead, EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include EU Consumer Confidence, US Existing Home Sales, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Earnings from VAT, Lonza, Equinor, Thales, Tesla, Alphabet, ServiceNow, IBM, Chipotle, GE Vernova, Freeport, AT&T, Thermo Fisher Scientific, Lamb Weston, Infosys, Moody's, CME & Hilton.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

White House Press Secretary Leavitt said they could see more tariff letters for August 1st.European bourses are in the red and currently trade at session troughs, US equity futures also incrementally lower.DXY is flat awaiting fresh catalysts, whilst Antipodeans lag given the risk-tone.JGBs react to the election, bonds elsewhere have a bearish bias, Gilts lag.Crude moves in lockstep with risk while base metals remain cushioned.Looking ahead, US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement, Speakers including Fed Chair Powell & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde. Earnings from SAP, Intuitive, Capital One, Baker Hughes, Coca Cola, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, DR Horton, Northrop Gruman, Danaher, MSCI & Pulte.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed after failing to sustain the early upward momentum seen at the open following the fresh record intraday highs on Wall St.White House Press Secretary Leavitt said they could see more tariff letters for August 1st.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.4% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.3% on Monday.DXY is steady, JPY is the marginal laggard as Japan returns from holiday, EUR/USD failed to hold onto the 1.17 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include US Richmond Fed Index, NBH Policy Announcement, Fed Chair Powell & Bowman, ECB's Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Supply from UK & Germany.Earnings from Akzo Nobel, ASM International, Dassault Aviation, Julius Baer, Lindt, SAP, Intuitive, Capital One, Baker Hughes, Coca Cola, Lockheed Martin, Philip Morris, RTX, DR Horton, Northrop Gruman, Danaher, MSCI & Pulte.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Japanese PM Ishiba vowed to stay on despite exit polls from the election showing that the ruling coalition lost its majority.APAC stocks began the week mostly in the green, markets in Japan were shut for a holiday.EU envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formalise a retaliation plan in the event of a possible no-deal scenario with the US, Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.3% after the cash market finished with losses of 0.3% on Friday.DXY is a touch lower, JPY outperforms post-election, EUR/USD remains on a 1.16 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Producer Prices, US Leading Index Change.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Japanese PM Ishiba vowed to stay on despite exit polls from the election showing that the ruling coalition lost its majority.EU envoys are set to meet as early as this week to formalise a retaliation plan in the event of a possible no-deal scenario with the US, according to Bloomberg.European bourses are modestly lower, US equity futures are higher with outperformance in the RTY.JPY leads post-election, DXY trundles lower, EUR awaits trade updates.Bonds are boosted after PM Ishiba loses Upper House majority, but not as bad as feared.Choppy trade in crude while base metals are underpinned by China's dam constructionLooking ahead, Canadian Producer Prices, US Leading Index Change, BoC SCE, NZ Trade Balance, Earnings from Verizon, Domino's Pizza & Cleveland Cliffs.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hit record highs, Russell 2000 outperformed for the second consecutive day.Fed's Waller says they should cut by 25bps at the July meeting and thereafter adjust meeting-by-meeting.APAC stocks predominantly higher, China shrugged off a 93.5% tariff on graphite; European futures point to a firmer open.DXY rangebound, EUR/USD reclaimed the 1.16 handle, Antipodeans outperformed after Thursday's AUD pressure.Fixed benchmarks marginally higher, JGBs in-fitting into the weekend's Upper House election.Crude holds onto Thursday's upside, XAU rangebound, base metals post mild gains.Looking ahead, highlights include German Producer Prices, US Building Permits/Housing Starts, UoM prelim, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including ECB's Nagel & German Finance Minister Klingbeil, Earnings from 3M, American Express, Charles Schwab, Atlas Copco, Hexpol, Boliden, Skanska, Telia & Danske Bank.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said they are very close to an India deal, could possibly make one with Europe & it is too soon to say re. Canada.US stocks finished higher but with volatile trade amid reports that Trump had drafted a letter to fire Powell; later, Trump denied this.DXY has regained some composure after getting hit on Fed independence concerns, G10s softer with AUD lagging after soft jobs data.USTs ease after Wednesday's upside, JGBs initially followed suit but picked up after the latest JGB liquidity auction.Crude remains afloat, XAU rangebound, base peers lack conviction in contained trade.Highlights include Australian Employment, UK Jobs, EZ HICP (Final), US Trade, Jobless Claims, Retail Sales & Atlanta Fed GDPNow, G20 Finance Ministers Meeting, Speakers including Fed's Kugler, Daly, Cook & Waller, Supply from Spain, France & UK, Earnings from Novartis, Publicis, Volvo, PepsiCo, GE, Abbott Laboratories, Netflix & TSMC.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st. Also notes that pharma tariffs will probably begin at month-end and initial tariffs on pharmaceuticals will be lowEuropean bourses are mixed having clambered off early morning lows, Autos/Tech lags following results from Renault and ASML.US equity futures trade on either side of the unchanged mark, NQ lags as it digests ASML's results where it walked back on its 2026 growth outlook amid tariff uncertainty.DXY essentially flat awaiting US PPI, GBP digests hot inflation metrics.EGBs slightly heavy into the MMF, Gilts lag on CPI, USTs flat before PPI.Looking ahead, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Speakers including Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams. Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued following the lacklustre handover from Wall St.US President Trump says he is working on five to six trade deals and there will probably be two to three deals by August 1st.European equity futures indicate a marginally softer cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.3% on Tuesday.DXY is fractionally softer after gaining again yesterday, EUR/USD has returned to a 1.16 handle, Cable sits sub-1.34 pre-CPI.France's Marine Le Pen warned that if French PM Bayrou does not revise his public spending plan they "will seek to topple him".Looking ahead, highlights include UK CPI, US PPI, Industrial Production & Capacity Utilisation, Fed's Barkin, Barr, Cook, Hammack, Logan, Kugler & Williams, Supply from Germany, Earnings from J&J, PNC, BAC, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, ASML & Sandvik.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Bitcoin soars past $122K flipping Amazon's market cap. Charlie and Colin analyze price predictions from $150K-$400K, discuss the Mayer Multiple indicator, boomer ETF flows, and whether the 4-year cycle still holds in this bull market.Charlie and Colin dive deep into Bitcoin's explosive run past $122,000, analyzing what's driving the rally and how high it could go. They break down predictions from Peter Brandt ($150K), Bob Lucas ($175K), and the wild $400K call from Udi. Plus: why boomer ETF flows might be the secret sauce, the Mayer Multiple indicator, and whether we're in for a supercycle.Subscribe to the newsletter! https://newsletter.blockspacemedia.comNOTES:• Bitcoin hit $122K all-time high over weekend• Market cap exceeds $2.4 trillion, flips Amazon• Mayer Multiple at 1.12, well below 2.4 threshold• iShares Bitcoin ETF trades at $67 per share• DXY down 10.7% in 2025, worst since 80s• Gold market cap at $22.3 trillion (10x Bitcoin)Timestamps:00:00 Start03:00 Bitcoin marketcap flips Amazon & Google08:25 Mayer Multiple (it's back baby!)10:27 Analyst: Peter Brandt (parabolic advance)13:54 Analyst: Bob Lucas (4 yr cycle)25:19 Analyst: Udi (just vibes man)-

APAC stocks were ultimately mixed with the region indecisive in the aftermath of the latest Chinese GDP and activity data.European equity futures indicate a marginally higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.2% on Monday.DXY has given back some of yesterday's gains, EUR/USD remains on a 1.16 handle, other majors are contained.EU draws up retaliatory tariffs for US goods in case a trade deal is not reached, including aircraft and booze, according to WSJ.Crude futures remained subdued after US President Trump announced 100% tariffs on Russia and secondary sanctions on other countries that buy oil from Russia if a Ukraine deal is not struck within 50 days.The ECB is to discuss a more negative scenario next week than previously envisaged in June after Trump's latest tariff threat, according to Reuters.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ Industrial Production, German ZEW, US & Canadian CPI, OPEC MOMR, Bundesbank Monthly Report, Fed's Bowman, Barr, Barkin & Collins, BoE's Bailey & UK Chancellor Reeves, Supply from Germany, Earnings from JPMorgan, Blackrock, Wells Fargo, Citi and Ericsson.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump sent trade letters to the EU and Mexico announcing 30% tariffs from August 1st (separate from sectoral tariffs).The EU is planning to "step up engagement" with other nations impacted by US President Trump's tariffs, according to Bloomberg sources.APAC stocks were mostly positive but with some cautiousness seen following US President Trump's tariff letters, while the region also reflected on mixed Chinese trade data.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future down 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 1.0% on Friday.DXY is marginally firmer, EUR/USD is only slightly softer despite Trump's tariff announcement, other majors are contained.Looking ahead, highlights include US President Trump's Comments on Russia, ECB's Cipollone, supply from the EU.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

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US President Trump announced a 35% tariff for Canada and flagged a potential 20% blanket tariff for other countries; US is set to keep the tariff exemption for USMCA goods, according to a US official.Trump also noted the EU will receive a letter by Friday. Ahead of this, European bourses are in the red with sectors (ex-energy, post-BP) following suit.Stateside, futures are lower into a docket headlined by potential trade developments, ES -0.6%.USD extends on its recent recovery, resilient to trade updates. DXY notched a 97.89 peak, G10s broadly under pressure with the JPY lagging.Fixed was lifted by the above updates, since pulled back and moved into the red, a pullback intensified by a hawkish interview with ECB's Schnabel.Choppy trade for crude awaiting developments on numerous in-play factors, precious metals glean from the risk tone while base peers are tarnished.Looking ahead, highlights include Canadian Jobs, Fitch on Germany, DBRS on Sweden, Speakers including ECB's Cipollone. Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

European bourses began with modest gains and have gradually increased, largely led by reports of Chinese housing support.US futures are contained as newsflow has been limited, ex-China, since the overnight tariff developments.DXY is marginally firmer but well within Wednesday's band, G10s flat aside from Antipodeans benefiting from metals action and China support; BRL lags on 50% tariffsFixed benchmarks have been gradually drifting from overnight highs, now essentially flatBase metals glean on reports of Chinese stimulus, precious peers also firmer though action has been more gradualLooking ahead, highlights include US Weekly Claims, Chinese M2/New Yuan Loans, Speakers including Fed's Musalem, Waller & Daly, BoE's Breeden, Supply from the US. Earnings from Delta & Conagra Brands.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks traded mixed following the similar performance stateside where tariff updates remained in focus.US President Trump said he will announce something on pharmaceuticals very soon and will be announcing semiconductor tariffs, believes the copper tariff will be 50%.President Trump said the US is probably two days off from sending the EU a letter, which means a deal.European equity futures indicate a slightly higher cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future up 0.3% after the cash market closed with gains of 0.6% on Tuesday.DXY is a touch higher with the USD mixed vs. peers (stronger vs. havens, weaker vs. antipodeans).RBNZ maintained the OCR at 3.25%, as expected, hinted at future rate cuts ahead.Looking ahead, highlights include BoE FSR, FOMC Minutes, RBA's Hunter, BoE Governor Bailey, ECB's Lane, Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump sent tariff letters to 14 countries, including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Thailand, with tariff rates ranging between 25%-40%.Trump also warned against retaliation, although he also delayed the tariff deadline to August 1st - leaving room for negotiation.APAC stocks mostly traded with cautious gains as participants digested the Trump letters; Wall Street closed lower.RBA defied the broad consensus and instead decided to pause on rates through a 6-3 majority vote.European equity futures indicate a lower cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.2% after the cash market closed with gains of 1.0% on Monday.DXY is steady, AUD is the clear outperformer across the majors, USD/JPY sits on a 146 handle.Looking ahead, highlights include German Trade, US NY Fed SCE, NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, RBA's Bullock, ECB's Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from Netherlands, UK, Germany & US.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

US President Trump said the August 1st tariff deadline is firm, but he is open to other ideas.European bourses began on the front foot, digesting the deadline pushback and reports that the US offered the EU a 10% tariff deal, via Politico.Since, benchmarks have eased off best with the tone now mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.1%. Stateside, non-tariff updates limited, ES +0.1%.DXY is giving back some of Monday's gains. AUD outperforms on a surprise RBA hold. EUR and GBP both firmer, but off best.Fixed benchmarks hit by the tariff deadline extension and a packed supply docket.Crude in the red but within familiar ranges, pressure intensified on reports that Doha talks recommenced. Metals follow the risk tone.Looking ahead, highlights include US NY Fed SCE, NFIB Business Optimism, EIA STEO, ECB's Nagel & de Guindos, Supply from the USClick for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mostly subdued with the region cautious ahead of upcoming key events, including central bank announcements and the July 9th tariff deadline.US President Trump said 12 nations will receive tariff letters on Monday (deliveries to start from 17:00BST). Also, threatened 10% additional tariff for those aligned with BRICS.US Treasury Secretary Bessent said letters to trading partners will notify them that if no deal is reached, they will revert to April 2nd tariff levels; tariffs to take effect on August 1st.European equity futures indicate a quiet open with Euro Stoxx 50 future flat after the cash market closed with losses of 1% on Friday.DXY has kicked the week off on the front foot, antipodeans lag alongside the soft risk tone, EUR/USD remains on a 1.17 handle.Crude pressured after OPEC+ accelerated its output hike with an increase of 548k bpd for August (prev. 411k bpd increase).Looking ahead, highlights include German Industrial Output, Swedish CPIF (Flash), EZ Sentix & Retail Sales, BoE Gilt sale operation.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

This week, we dive into the latest jobs and unemployment data surprises, the hidden role of immigration in labor force changes, and why both political parties are terrible. We also dig into the looming deficit and treasury issuance implications, the EM-ification of the US, the symptoms of a failed system, and the inevitability of currency debasement. Enjoy! — Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_ Follow Quinn: https://x.com/qthomp Follow Felix: https://twitter.com/fejau_inc Follow Forward Guidance: https://twitter.com/ForwardGuidance Follow Blockworks: https://twitter.com/Blockworks_ Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance — Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1WckOC1BLjh33MBzZsCrHM5TatPCd1EZF/view?usp=sharing — Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network's bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/ — Timestamps: (00:00) Cold Open (04:00) Bullish NFP? (08:25) Ads (Aptos) (11:12) Anti-Immigration Impact (17:32) Wage Growth, Yields & Controlled Demolition (21:22) BBB Passed, Now What? (26:40) Ads (Aptos) (27:32) Both Sides Are Terrible (34:32) High-Yield Credit (37:17) Get Out on the Risk Spectrum (39:52) Active Treasury Issuance Greater Than QE (41:37) The Problem is Getting Worse (44:12) All Roads Lead to Debasement (46:58) Crushing Global Labor (48:52) DXY & the End of Central Banking (51:47) EM-ification of the US (54:12) MSTR & BTC Volatility (58:44) Seasonality, Leverage & Momentum (01:01:32) Symptoms of a Failed System (01:08:50) Buying vs Renting (01:13:28) Final Thoughts — Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed. #Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance

European bourses in the green, shrugging off a mixed APAC lead. US futures post modest gains, RTY outperformsUSD attempts to atone for recent pressure. DXY eyes 97.00 to the upside, JPY lags, EUR and GBP both hitFixed in the red, Gilts lag after the UK Welfare Reform u-turn. USTs await data and fiscal updatesUS House set to convene at 09:00ET, Punchbowl reports several sources expressing alarm at the number of no's from lawmakersCrude in the green and despite light newsflow continue to climb, metals mixedLooking ahead, highlights include US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, NBP Policy Announcement, ECBʼs Lane & Lagarde.Click for the Newsquawk Week Ahead.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks were mixed following a similar handover from the US where participants digested data, trade commentary and a slew of central bank rhetoric.US President Trump said he doubts the US will have a deal with Japan but will possibly have an agreement with India.US Senate narrowly passed President Trump's sweeping tax and spending bill; House to vote by Thursday "at the latest".European equity futures indicate a positive cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 futures up 0.6% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Tuesday.DXY is modestly firmer, JPY narrowly lags on negative trade headlines, EUR/USD is lingering just below the 1.18 mark.Looking ahead, highlights include EU & Italian Unemployment Rate, US Challenger Layoffs, ADP National Employment, Canadian Manufacturing PMI, NBP Policy Announcement, ECB's de Guindos, Cipollone, Lane, Lagarde & BoE's Taylor, Supply from UK & Germany.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

APAC stocks began the new quarter mostly higher, albeit with gains tentative; Wall Street closed higher.The Senate vote-a-rama process is ongoing before a final version is sent back to the House to approve the bill, before then sending it to Trump's desk.EU is to accept Trump's universal tariff but seeks key exemptions and wants the US to commit to lower rates on key sectors, according to Bloomberg.European equity futures indicate an uneventful cash market open with Euro Stoxx 50 future +0.1% after the cash market closed with losses of 0.4% on Monday.DXY is steady, EUR/USD briefly ventured onto a 1.18 handle, USD/JPY marginally extended on its downside.Looking ahead, highlights include EZ, UK & US Manufacturing PMIs, German Unemployment Rate, EZ HICP, US ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS Job Openings, ECB SCE & Central Banking Forum, Speakers include ECB's de Guindos, Elderson, Schnabel & Lagarde, Fed's Powell, BoJ's Ueda, BoE's Bailey & BoK's Rhee.Read the full report covering Equities, Forex, Fixed Income, Commodites and more on Newsquawk

Crypto News: Uncertainty hits investors in the Crypto market as Bitcoin stalls and War rises in the middle east. Trump Media gets SEC Approval for share sell to buy Bitcoin.Show Sponsor -