Podcast appearances and mentions of dean foreman

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the current state the U.S. economy and the global oil and natural gas markets.Consumer debt in the U.S. is rising and that could have potential impacts on GDP. While the economic picture in the U.S. is uncertain at the moment, global oil demand is projected to reach 104.1 million barrels per day this year. Demand is partly being driven by emerging markets. Then there is Texas, which continues to export oil to the world, while having a $720 billion impact on GDP. Texas is not just an oil state anymore, even though 30% of the state's private sector is employed by the oil and natural gas industry, it is now becoming a high-tech state as it has begun to integrate AI, automation and autonomy into the sector's operations. Recorded on Monday, February 24, 2025Episode Chapters0:00 Health of the U.S. Consumer 5:57 Liquid Natural Gas Market 11:00 Data Centers15:32 European Gas18:51 U.S. Oil Imports 24:45 Heavy Crude26:53 Growing Global Oil Demand & Geopolitics 29:50 Permian Basin 33:34 Impact of the Oil & Natural Gas Industry on Texas' Economy35:29 Quarterly Outlook--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, TXOGA President Todd Staples and Shana Joyce, Vice President of Government and Regulatory Affairs, are joined by Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, for a discussion on the need to address growing concerns over insufficient transmission access in the Permian Basin, one of the most important energy-producing regions in the United States.--TXOGA: A Vignette – Oil & Gas Perspective on the Permian Basin Load by TXOGA Chief Economist Dean Foreman, Ph.D.TXOGA: TXOGA, PBPA and TAEP Issue Joint Statement Following PUC Approval of Permian BasinReliability PlanPUC: Public Utility Commission Approves Reliability Plan for the Permian Basin RegionPUC: Permian Basin Reliability Plan

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on the Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the growing demand for oil and how Texas energy exports could hit $230 billion by the end of the year. In Q3 2024, global oil demand reached a record of 103.4 million barrels per day. To keep up with the global demand for oil and in an effort to maintain marketshare, Saudi Arabia recently announced that the Kingdom will increase daily oil production by 1 million barrels at day to 9.9 million barrels per day by December 2025. While Saudi Arabia is increasing output, Texas continues to output millions of barrels of oil per day as well. As of July, Texas is currently outputting 5.7 million barrels per day of crude oil and 3.85 million barrels per day of natural gas liquids. As global oil demand continues to outstrip supply, Texas is working to close the gap by leveraging technology to bring new wells online. The oil and gas industry is thriving in Texas. So much so, that the industry paid $26.3 billion in state and local royalties and taxes in 2023.Episode Chapters0:00 Preparing for Hurricanes 2:35 Growing Oil Demand 11:33 Oil Markets & Interest Rates 14:34 International Longshoremen's Association Port Strike 19:42 Interest Rates and the Impact on Drilling 23:22 Increasing Productivity Through Automation 27:28 Oil & Natural Gas Industry's Impact on Texas' Economy 31:28 Growing Household Debt & Delinquencies 35:48 Strengthening Euro 37:42 Rising Oil Demand Continuing in 2025 40:21 Quarterly Oil OutlookRecorded on Friday, September 27, 2024--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™.Sign up for This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter: https://www.roadtoautonomy.com/autonomy-economy/See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, TXOGA President Todd Staples and Shana Joyce, Vice President of Government and Regulatory Affairs, are joined by Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, for his “Foreman's Four” where he highlights four items about energy and economics that everyone should know. In addition, they discuss the effects of global geopolitics on supply and demand, the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and how production has increased despite lower upstream employment numbers and rig counts, due to increased use of AI and process efficiencies.--TXOGA: Economic Insights: TXOGA's economic insights serve as a vital reference for our members as well as those who are interested in understanding data which tell the story of what's happening with the economy as well as oil and gas markets at the Texas, U.S. and global levels.TXOGA: Energy Economic Analysis Highlights Texas Energy Records Through July 2024

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss key trends and geopolitical issues that are impacting the global oil and natural gas markets. Today, there is record high global demand for oil and natural gas, driven by economic growth and increased consumption of petrochemicals. Despite efforts to transition to renewable energy, oil and gas remain critical to economic activity worldwide and without energy there is no form of economic activity. During the conversation, Grayson and Dean discuss several issues impacting the oil and natural gas markets including the geopolitical factors affecting energy markets, including the U.S. presidential election, potential conflicts in the Middle East, and shifting alliances in Europe. Dean emphasizes the importance of stable policies and international trade relationships for long-term energy investments.The conversation also covers the status of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which is at historically low levels. Dean expresses concern about the government's reluctance to replenish the reserve despite potential global instability.Regarding the U.S. economy, Dean notes high levels of consumer debt and its potential impact on spending and economic growth. Grayson and Dean go onto discuss the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates and inflation and what impact interest rate cuts could have on the oil and natural gas markets.Throughout the podcast, Dean stresses the interdependence of energy markets, economic growth, and geopolitical stability. With regard to energy policy, Dean suggests a balanced approach that recognizes the ongoing importance of oil and gas while also addressing environmental concerns.Recorded on Tuesday, July 2, 2024Episode Chapters0:00 Fed Rate Cut Impact in the Oil & Natural Gas Markets4:39 Oil and Texas' Economy11:27 Exporting Natural Gas to Mexico13:18 Record Demand for Oil & Natural Gas17:29 Argentinean Shale Oil19:30 Impact of the U.S. Presidential Election on the Oil Markets20:48 EU Energy Policies24:20 Currencies Impact on the Oil Markets 27:41 Consumer Debt28:50 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)36:20 Hurricanes 38:51 Key Takeaways--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

With guest host Robert Rapier, Editor In Chief Shale Magazine

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Autonomy Economy podcast to discuss the pivotal role the oil and gas plays in the global economy. With a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty, Dean provides an in-depth analysis of how geopolitical factors like the Russia-Ukraine war and tensions with Iran impact oil markets. He examines the increasing demand for natural gas, particularly from Asia and Texas' position as one of the leading producer and exporters of oil and gas.During the conversation, Dean and Grayson explore the implications of rising interest rates and inflation on the energy sector and the broader economy, including California's controversial electricity pricing based on household income. Additionally, Grayson and Dean discuss the U.S.'s growing national debt and how it could potentially impact the energy markets as there is an interdependence between economic growth and energy demand. This comprehensive conversation is a must-listen for anyone interested in understanding the intricate dynamics of the global energy landscape and it's profound influence on economic development.Recorded on Wednesday, April 10, 2024Episode Chapters0:11 The Impact of Geopolitics4:41 Monetary Policy Impact on Oil & Natural Gas Markets13:34 Growing Demand for Natural Gas19:24 California Energy Policy26:40 Oil & Gas Impact on the Global Economy34:02 Impact of the Growing U.S. Debt on the Economy 41:34 China Oil Imports 43:48 Things to Watch in the Oil Markets--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy and Autonomy Economy podcasts as well as This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

In this episode, TXOGA Director of Government & Regulatory Affairs Shana Joyce and Chief Economist Dr. Dean Foreman discuss the Biden Administration's recent decision to pause approvals of liquified natural gas (LNG) export permits and what it means for Texas—the nation's top producer of natural gas and a major exporter of LNG—as well as our nation and the world at large.Also in this episode, TXOGA Chief Economist Dean Foreman, Ph.D., presents his “Foreman's Four” where he highlights four items about energy and economics that everyone should know.--TXOGA: TXOGA Statement on the Biden Administration's Decision to Pause Approvals of LNG Export PermitsTXOGA: LNG Exports Have Had No Impact on Domestic Energy Costs, TXOGA Economic Analysis FindsU.S. House Committee on Energy & Commerce: Myth vs. Fact: Biden's LNG Export BanAmerican Petroleum Institute: New Ipsos Poll: 2 in 3 Voters View America on Wrong Track on Energy

In this episode, TXOGA President Todd Staples, Director of Government & Regulatory Affairs Shana Joyce and Chief Economist Dr. Dean Foreman discuss industry's preparations and protocols for winter weather, plus the importance of natural gas in supporting the state's electric grid and an overview of how natural gas markets work.--TXOGA: Natural Gas FactsTXOGA: Winter ReadyTXOGA: A post Winter Storm Heather analysis by TXOGA found the state's electric grid was largely supported by natural gas. Together, all thermal sources including natural gas accounted for nearly 95% of electricity on the grid during the peak demand period, with weather-dependent sources providing 3% and battery storage 1%.Reuters: In January 2024, North Dakota production across the Bakken Shale fell by half, largely due to extreme cold weather.

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil and Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss his 2024 outlook for the oil & natural gas markets. The conversation begins with Dean sharing his outlook for the oil and natural gas markets.The outlook for oil and natural gas looks bright. – Dean ForemanLast year, the world set a new record high for oil demand of 101 million barrels per day. As we begin 2024, attention is now turning to geopolitics and global economic concerns. In Argentina, Javier Milei was sworn in as President on December 10th in a referendum on the economy with aspirations to rebuild the economy and lower inflation by unleashing economic growth. With economic and political reforms, Argentina has the ability to become an exporter of oil from the Vaca Muerta shale formation. It has been estimated that the Vaca Muerta formation has the ability to produce more than 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.Argentina because it has shale oil, the Vaca Muerta formation in Neuquén. It's like the Marcellus in the United States, expect it's much deeper and super high quality rock. They have the potential to really flip and become an exporter much like the United States. But they haven't had the business climate to be able to support from a macro perspective companies with predictability trusting to go in and invest a lot in the ground. – Dean ForemanIf the business climate changes, it will be interesting to watch and see what multi-national companies begin to invest in the Vaca Muerta formation. In the United States, economists are projecting a soft landing for the economy. If indeed a soft landing is achieved, more investments are going to be needed to bring the amounts of oil and natural gas to the market that are needed to sustain growth.A portion of economic growth can be attributed to tourism demand, as Bloomberg is reporting that 2024 will be a record-setting year for travel. The International Air Transport Association is projecting that 4.7 billion individuals globally will board planes in 2024, generating $964 billion in airfare revenue. The cruise ship industry is also seeing growth as it is estimated that 35.7 million passengers will board a cruise ship in 2024, up from 31.5 million in 2023. If the consumer trend of opting experiences over purchasing goods continues, there could be an uptick in global oil demand. With the Federal Funds Rate at 5.53%, one has to question how long consumers will continue to spend on travel until they feel the weight of the high interest rate environment. If consumers cut back on travel, what is the impact on oil and will diesel demand offset the potential weakness in gasoline? Grayson and Dean discuss the potential scenarios and what the outcome could look like. One of the biggest uncertainties coming into this year, from a household and a corporate perspective is the delayed impact of the pent up effect of having raised interest rates so much, so fast. – Dean ForemanAnother trend to watch is the re-emergence of hybrid sales in the U.S. In 2023, U.S. individuals purchased over 1 million hybrids, up 76% year-over-year. It's a clear signal that consumers are still willing to purchase vehicles that have an internal combustion engine. Whether this is being driven by a pricing decision or the simple fact that consumers want reliability and consistency has yet to be determined. What has been determined is that there is clearly a trend emerging. A tree that is powering Texas to produce 5.7 million barrels of oil per day, its highest level since 1981. In 2023, Texas accounted for 54.7% of U.S. drilling, it's highest level since 2019. In Q3 2023, the Permian Basin set a new production record of 10 million barrels per day of oil equivalent. Today, the Permian Basin accounts for 27% of the total U.S. oil and natural gas production. It has the ability to continue to expand, again because of the quality of resources as well as the ability to get pipelines without dealing with the morass of many of the federal energy regulatory commission, interstate pipeline regulations. With Texas' nimble intrastate pipeline system, it has the unique ability to attract capital and respond to upstream production. That's why the Permian Basin has really stood out versus anywhere else in the country. – Dean ForemanWrapping up the conversation, Dean shares his insights on what to watch in the oil and natural gas markets over the next quarter.Recorded on Thursday, January 4, 2024--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles/trucks and the emerging autonomy economy™. The company has two businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy podcast and This Week in The Autonomy Economy newsletter.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the growing global demand for oil and its economic impact on the global economy. The conversation begins with Dean discussing the current state of the oil markets. It's a tight market and despite everything that has been going on we really have tightness to watch in terms of supply and demand and where that supply is going to come to meet that demand. – Dean ForemanThe growing demand for oil in the United States is coming from jet fuel, 1.8 million barrels per day and diesel fuel, 3.6 million barrels per day. With an additional 6 million barrels per day being refined for materials. With the growing demand for oil the United States is looking to increase volume by lifting sanctions on Venezuela. The demand for oil is not just limited to the United States, it's a global phenomenon.China is now the single largest importer of crude oil, over 13 million barrels per day. – Dean ForemanWith China being the single largest importer of crude oil, the country embraced electric vehicles to slow their dependence on foreign oil imports. A big part of the traditional push by China to get into electrification wasn't just to strategically control the value chain, it was to prevent, as their economy grew an unsustainable growth in their oil imports. – Dean ForemanU.S. Energy Information Administration is projecting demand of 103 million barrels per day in 2024, an increase of roughly 200,000 barrels per day year-over-year. Over the coming years, the United States will be the largest single source of growth of oil supply.We've seen record production this year, U.S. crude oil production for the first week of October struck 13.2 million barrels per day, that's a record high. Our previous high was in March 2020 of 13.1 [million]. – Dean ForemanThe growing demand for oil is good for the Texas economy. Texas, as of September is producing 5.9 million barrels of crude oil per day. For the first eight months of 2023, Texas has driven 43.2% of U.S. oil production, its highest since 1981. For the first seven months of 2023, Texas has exported $125 billion of oil, natural gas and derived products globally. Wrapping up the conversation, Dean shares his outlook on the oil markets for the next quarter. Recorded on Thursday, October 19, 2023--------About The Road to AutonomyThe Road to Autonomy® is a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles and logistics. The company has three businesses: The Road to Autonomy Indices, with Standard and Poor's Dow Jones Indices as the custom calculation agent; Media, which includes The Road to Autonomy Podcast and The Road to Autonomy's This Week In The Index; and The Road to Autonomy Research and Consulting Services.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

ITOP Episode 404 - Dean Foreman - TXOGA 9 - 3-23 by SHALE Magazine

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, Texas Oil & Gas Association joined Grayson Brulte on The Road to Autonomy podcast to discuss the global record demand for oil and the Texas economy.The conversation begins with Dean discussing the current state of the oil markets. In a nutshell they are deceptively tighter than relativity modest prices, of plus or minus $70 a barrel recently would indicate. – Dean ForemanEven though we are currently in a tight oil market, global oil demand is projected to increase to 102.7 million barrels per day in 2024 — a record high. If the economy stays on track and continues to hum along and not fall into a recession, the oil supply pressures could continue to mount. Historically in a rising rate environment, the demand for oil and commodities in general has decreased. This time however, we are seeing the demand for oil continuing to be strong. The increased demand for oil is primarily coming from emerging markets. We're seeing emerging markets drive the majority of economic growth this year, projected again over the next two years and hand-in-hand with that has come the energy demand to go with it. – Dean ForemanIf the demand for oil continues as projected, The United States can bring more supply online. In the United States, Texas currently produces 5.4 million barrels per day of oil. With global demand for oil increasing, Texas' economy has led the nation in economic growth for the last two quarters. Texas economy is growing at an average annual pace of 7.6%, more than 2.5 times the U.S. average. From January 2023 to April 2023, Texas generated $73.2 billion of state export revenues. When Texas does well, the U.S. does well. – Dean ForemanWith 43.6% of the oil in the United States being produced in Texas, the industry puts safe guards in place to protect against the potential impacts of hurricanes to ensure that oil can continue to flow. Wrapping up the conversation, Dean shares his outlook for the global oil markets and what he expects to see occur over the next quarter. Follow The Road To Autonomy on Apple PodcastsFollow The Road to Autonomy on Spotify Follow The Road To Autonomy on LinkedInFollow The Road To Autonomy on TwitterRecorded on Friday, July 7, 2023See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Oil falls amid China growth uncertaintieshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-come-off-earlier-gains-banks-cut-china-growth-forecasts-2023-06-19/- the issue is headwinds, but is China's economy really that bad- the real issue is that expectations for China's great economic reopening haven't materialized. - China's demand growth was baked in and now that it's coming in below expectations- at the same time...China's refineries processed second most oil in May on recordColumn: China stored massive volume of crude oil in May, giving it optionshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-stored-massive-volume-crude-oil-may-giving-it-options-russell-2023-06-19/- China added to crude oil stockpiles at the fastest rate in nearly three years in May, as robust imports outweighed near-record refinery processing.Toyota unveils sweeping plans for new battery tech, EV innovationhttps://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/toyota-market-next-gen-battery-evs-2026-built-by-new-ev-unit-2023-06-13/- Solid-state batteries can hold more energy than current liquid electrolyte batteries- Toyota said it aims to launch next-generation lithium-ion batteries from 2026 offering longer ranges and quicker charging.- This could be much better for the modern model of driving.- While the range would be longer and the charging time faster and more palatable, but the weight might still be an issueNew Land Grab by Oil Giants Is Deep Undergroundhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/new-land-grab-by-oil-giants-is-deep-underground-34cd5e97Welcome Back Dr. Dean Foreman, Chief Economist for Texas Oil and Gas Association! www.txoga.org- Are we heading towards 13 million barrels per day of oil production from the US? It's not getting there.- Many states don't have the same activity levels as they did pre-pandemic- Texas is more important than ever for oil production - natural decline rates in Texas are less than in other places- Market is structurally tight, esp when you look at inventory levels- Why is OPEC cutting? Each time, Fed Reserve contemplates a rate hike, economic uncertainty results.-  Going back to the OPEC cuts last year was to offset monetary policy from Fed.- The China factor? China's economy is coming back but slowly over the course of the year.- Natural gas production is at all time highs- How much is flowing into global markets? Storage levels of natural gas are high in Europe and the U.S.- Seasonal and regional markets for natural gas remain.- Permian Basin most of the natural gas is associated- How to incentivize natural gas drilling when prices are so low- Appalachian region is constrained by pipelines- Record level of natural gas exports, but really strong production and really strong consumption. Productivity levels have held this up. - US is sitting at under $3 per mbtu, Europe is $9/$10 per mbtu- Hot summer could pressure the LNG situation. But also a comeback in China's economy could pressure the LNG situation. China gave up many cargoes of LNG that it had contracted for to Europe because they were willing to pay super high prices This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute (API) joined Grayson Brulte on The Road To Autonomy Podcast to discuss his 2023 Q1 outlook for the oil and gas markets.The conversation begins with Dean sharing his thoughts and insights into the current state of the oil and gas markets. As the economy goes, that is what we are going to look for in oil and gas markets. – Dean ForemanThe demand for oil has been strong. The U.S. Petroleum demand in December 2022 was 20.5 million barrels per day. For 2022, oil demand grew by 2.2%. Going back to 2000, 2022 was the forth highest year for growth. It says that on the heels of the pandemic, $20 trillion dollars worth of economic stimulus has continued to have a pretty positive effect for the economy, despite Fed Funds rate hikes, despite concerns about a recession, despite individual sectors that have been under pressure. – Dean ForemanThe trend of demand outpacing supply has continued for over a year now with inventories that are at historic lows. Oil demand is growing because of the rebound in travel and the increase in cargo shipping by air. During the last six months in 2022, 1.5 million barrels per day (1.5% of the global market) of new oil globally came online from Government reserves. While there was some downward price movement, there was also long-term negative consequences as oil companies were discouraged to start new drilling and new infrastructure projects. This could lead to a global imbalance as there will not be enough infrastructure to meet demand. The official estimates for demand growth this year range between basically 1 million barrels per day or about 1% of the market, up to 1.7 million barrels per day. – Dean ForemanIn order to meet this demand, investment has to be made and drilling has to expand around the world to ensure that new supply can come to the market. Adding more context to this, the U.S. Energy Information Administration is predicting that global oil demand is expected to reach a record-high of 101 million barrels per day in 2023. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve ended 2022 at the lowest point since 1983. When comparing 2022 to 1983, the U.S.'s oil consumption was more than 33% higher. There is little margin for error with solid oil demand and a dwindling Strategic Petroleum Reserve. When you factor in geo-politics and weather, the situation becomes even more unpredictable.In 2022, the U.S. dollar rose 6.23%. So far this year (2023) the U.S. dollar has begun to weaken. With a weakening U.S. dollar that is projected to weaken by 3% this year according to Bloomberg, oil is beginning to trade on local currencies. For Q1 2023, the trends to watch in the oil and gas markets are the Russia/Ukraine conflict, systemic risks to the global food supply and emerging markets debt.Wrapping up the conversation, Dean discuses the global economics and the impact it has on household budgets. Follow The Road To Autonomy on Apple PodcastsFollow The Road To Autonomy on LinkedInFollow The Road To Autonomy on TwitterRecorded on Tuesday, January 17, 2023See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Russian oil trade remains in ship-shape as the EU price cap has failed to stem Moscow's freight and insurance income, analyst sayshttps://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russian-oil-india-china-not-cheap-shipping-fees-kpler-analyst-2023-1- "Debunking number one, no one really knows the price of Russian oil"- Urals blend may be priced at $38/barrel (less than half price of Brent) but now Russia is selling all these other services to go along with it like insurance, shipping, etc. so they could be making $60+/barrel with all the other services rolled in.Yellen says setting price caps on Russian refined oil products 'complicated'https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/yellen-says-setting-price-caps-russian-refined-oil-products-complicated-2023-01-21/- "Western countries are working to structure price caps on Russian refined petroleum products to ensure continued flow of Russian diesel, but the markets are complicated and there is a chance things do not go to plan" - Multiple different products make it harder to implement a price cap, apparently- European Union diesel ban comes into effect Feb 5- Yellen thinks crude oil price cap is successful so far because price for Russian crude oil dropped and Russia says its revenue is down -- but is it really?- There are so many ways to get around the price cap.U.S. energy head warns Republicans oil bill would lift pump priceshttps://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-energy-chief-warns-republicans-that-oil-bill-would-raise-pump-prices-2023-01-18/- Is this bill even a threat? This is posturing. Biden will just veto the bill and Republicans don't have veto-proof majority to override it.- Doesn't make sense to put SPR releases under purview of Congress. Congress would be a terrible body to have approval authority over SPR releases.- President should have authority to make these decisionsWhite House Aims to Reflect the Environment in Economic Datahttps://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/20/business/economy/economic-statistics-climate-nature.html- Idea put forth at the WEF by John Kerry, so it's unlikely to go anywhereDr. Dean Foreman from API: Monthly Statistical Report AND Quarterly Industry Report- US consumed 25 million bpd of petroleum- Part going into materials and petrochemicals was up- EIA growth estimate up to 1 million bpd but IEA now estimating 1.9 million bpd of demand growth: different expectations for China's growth. Europeans anticipating shortage of natural gas and expectation they will replace this with diesel- EIA estimates growth from US primarily. But API says growth flatlining. No tailwind coming from DUCs. How will we get 1million bpd growth? ANd where is growth from other non-OPEC countries? Less clear when this oil will come online.- Less international drilling, more investment but costs are up. Despite weaker economic forecasts, oil demand is still strong- API data focused on why production has been held back. Comparison with natural gas. Nat gas production is at all time high, exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Why? Gas has been led by Louisnana and Texas, which are conducive to gas drilling. Oil has more headwinds. Colorado stifling, New Mexico, Wyoming, North Dakota - drilling is all weak compared to pre-pandemic. Federal moratorium is a big issue for NM, WY, ND. Inability to build intrastate pipelines is hitting oil production.- Appalachia should be the largest source of natgas in US but can't get Mountain Valley pipeline online even though it's mostly built! Finishing the pipeline would totally.- Marcellus area natgas is prices nearly a dollar less than Henry Hub for next year. Why? This is big discount and is impacting the economics of natgas development.- DUC issue is indicative of workforce limitations. limited completion crews so people making decision to keep completion crews on rigs that are operating because they might lose it?- DUCs are theoretically the cheapest way to get product to market. News from Permian - changing how they are drilling, reshuffling. Is it economic?- Distillate stocks increased for 3rd straight month. Are we in the clear? Concerns aren't totally alleviated but we are 33 days of supply as a nation (was 25 in October). Real question is how to get distillate to Northeast. Relatively warm winter has helped because more time to get diesel by rain and truck from midwest to northeast. Especially since imports from Europe are down.- US net exports (crude oil and refined products) record for December - EIA projections for exports think that US will have surplus in Q1 2023 despite huge exports every month in 2022. How does this work?- Fundamentally, the market is tight. US products are in demand, let's make sure we are supporting US production in ways that are consistent with the promises we've made to our allies.https://www.api.org/ This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Frackers Say Oil Production Slowing in the Shale Patchhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/frackers-say-oil-production-slowing-in-the-shale-patch-11667743226- problem is that frackers are drilling in gassier areas- will likely get more production in 2023 because of rejiggering where they drill, etc.- WSJ very different interpretation of info from what Ryan sees in Permian based on research - article will be out from Hart Energy soon- Lots of evidence that there's plenty of profitable drilling - lots of wells break even at $40/barrel.Beijing's biggest district urges residents to stay home as COVID cases risehttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-covid-cases-steady-many-beijing-businesses-schools-shut-2022-11-20/- Is China moving away from zero-Covid or not?- Why is Xi pushing forward? Likelihood of mass death is low, so what's going on?- Is zero-Covid an employment scam? How do you transition people who work these jobs to elsewhere?- Impact on the oil market about news about Covid from China. Could have moved the market.- China has probably signaled to Aramco what it's going to do, so they already know and aren't trading on headlines. Aramco probably knows about China's zero-covid policy more than others.Saudi Arabia Eyes OPEC+ Output Increase Ahead of Restrictions on Russian Oilhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-eyes-opec-production-increase-ahead-of-embargo-price-cap-on-russian-oil-11669040336- WSJ reported that Saudi wants an increase of 500,000 bpd at Dec 4 meeting- Saudi denies this- Best indication of China's zero covid policy is what OPEC is doingMonthly Statistical Review - Interview with chief economist from API, Dr. Dean ForemanAPI | MSR: U.S. Petroleum Markets Buoyant in October, But Have Entered a Winter of Uncertainties- stories of different parts of the economy and uneven recovery. Interest rates hurt some businesses but not others. - U.S. is plowing itself towards recession with rate increases.- Consumer economy is hurting with rate increases- Projections from EIA, fuel switching, and other data shows no recession because close to record oil demand.- Employment picture has been strong in nation. Despite stress points and unevenness, its not a bad picture.- Growth in industrial side of the economy.- Is the Permian in trouble? - G7 price cap could be a disruption in the making. Could take 1 million bpd of crude off the market and 500,000 bpd of products off market.- East coast is more exposed and dependent on trade with Europe because of lack of refining capacity and depends on trade with other regions and the transportation of it.- Market logistics are more of the same of what we saw in March and April as things get rerouted. Russian crude has to go by water because it's not going to Europe. Additional market penetration to India, China, etc. Is there any market left there? With refined products - also logistical. Typically products are shipped out of refineries in Baltic and spend 3 days going to Rotterdam. But now they have to spend more time going to Asia. Shipping and insurance issues are also a logistical issue. Short term disruption during change without any political hardball being played by Putin.- "Total U.S. exports of crude oil and refined products eclipsed a record 10.0 mb/d for a second straight month, and U.S. petroleum net exports rose to 2.1 mb/d, which was the highest for any month on record since 1947." Do you foresee this changing when the SPR releases stop? --> some of the SPR has been exported but not a lot of it. A lot of it is still getting placed domestically through pipelines and barges.- Two months ago 10.4 million bpd of total gross exports was a record. Double digit million bpd export numbers are stunning.- As imports have gone down, we have net exports going up.- Hunkering down and building business to continue to supply oil domestically.- EIA projects a backslide in exports but by year end next year it comes back.- The US has become a stronger domestic provider of its own oil within our own value chain.- But need more infrastructure in oil in order to have low prices at home and lots of exports This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Congress eyes cutting off foreign markets from US strategic reserve oilhttps://www.washingtonexaminer.com/restoring-america/courage-strength-optimism/congress-eyes-cut-off-foreign-markets-us-strategic-reserve- this could be problematic because US refineries can't handle all the light, sweet oil in the SPR so there would be a lot of oil unpurchased if it couldn't be exported and Biden keeps releasing huge amounts of SPR.China Oil Demand in Limbo as Virus Saps Travel Before Party Congresshttps://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-oil-demand-in-limbo-as-virus-saps-travel-before-party-congress-1.1832275- Will China's demand rebound or will it remain depressed to June 2023? This could impact global demand forecasts- China not actually getting more capitalistic, business is happening through the Party- China sees North Korea as ideal country- Chinese economic collapse?Biden Pitches Plan to Refill Oil Reserves, but Producers Are Skepticalhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-aims-to-spur-drilling-with-plan-to-refill-oil-reserves-but-producers-are-skeptical-11666467900- Is the Biden admin betting on global recession dropping oil prices to $50 so then $67 looks good and oil producers will have hedged?- $12 price cut is basically break even- Producers seem to think high prices will continue, so who is going to take that deal?Russian Military Boosts Jet Fuel Offtake for Ukraine Warhttps://www.energyintel.com/00000183-f6ac-dae6-a5b7-ffbe4fbb0000- boosting Russian refineriesDr. Dean Foreman from APIhttps://www.api.org/news-policy-and-issues/blog/2022/10/21/msr-petroleum-demand-reflects-economic-growth-in-september- US is hitting records despite global chaos- 20 million bpd of oil demand despite doom and gloom talk - good from economic and industry perspective- remarkable recovery on natural gas side- injection rate has caught up for storage- extraction of NGLs has been record breaking for September- 10.4 million bpd of gross exports of crude and refined products. Never higher for a month going back to 1947- domestic prices aren't exorbitant- don't have the kind of response on the oil drilling side the same way we had on the gas side- Oil and gas production are affected equally by supply chain and labor concerns. Gas supplies are looking good but oil production is down except in Texas- Why are prices still soft relative to where they probably should be, with inflation? Market is confused. Interest rate increases scaring off liquidity. Downdraft for oil prices along with ongoing SPR releases.- International natural picture is still very short, even though US picture is solid. SPR releases have covered up structural shortage. IEA, OPEC, Saudi Arabia all saying investment and drilling activity not enough to meet demand next year. OPEC cut forces hand of OECD SPR releases - will they continue SPR releases? Maybe SPR releases a little greedy in advance of midterms- Basically at price of right before Russia invasion of Ukraine. OPEC says it will defend this price.- Roughly balanced market with SPR releases and OPEC cuts. What will happen with Dec 5.- Distillate: the one area where the gov might ban exports to make sure we have enough. Stocks are really low on east coast - normally it imports some and gets from PADDS 2, 3 but it isn't. Symbiotic trade with Europe is disrupted. Historically low diesel reserves. Can substitute some fuels (residual heating oil, low sulfur fuel oil).- Distillate is a hot product internationally now- Trucking markets were really hot at the beginning of the year. Q1 was well above historical ranges. But now that prices are up, economy slowing, seeing a lot of slack capacity in trucking. DAT trend lines that track spot loads vs. trucks available. Seeing more trucks, fewer loads. Freight rates should be coming down.- Jet travel picking up does impact this because clawing back of market share from trucking- Soft distillate demand isn't all doom and gloom because there is some fuel switching BUT there are reasons to be concerned.- DEI indicates that economic growth is slower and steadier not dropping off. Economy probably isn't tanking but it is moving sideways- But when will Fed stop and take stock of how the rate increases are impacting the economy?- Demand side looks pretty good now. - Could a crash in the housing market have an impact on any fuel demand? - inventories are so low that if we get an Abqaiq like event, markets will see that we don't have the cushion to deal with it and futures markets will react in a more extreme way.- Banning exports is not the answer. We need targeted solutions to address regional problems. Targeted Jones Act waiver. Wild corner solutions aren't helpful.Ellen's New York Times Opinion Piece: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/24/opinion/international-world/saudi-arabia-opec-oil-cut.html This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com

Private Oil Drillers Are Hitting Their Limitshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/private-drillers-are-hitting-their-limits-11663579982- "they tapped many of their best drilling spots, and will have to ease their rapid pace of drilling as their inventory shrinks"- US oil production could decrease by "hundreds of thousands of barrels per day" - that's not very specific. Is going from 11.8 million bpd to 11.7 million bpd- Private producers hold around one-fifth of the Permian's most valuable acreage- OPEC toys with the market when they don't hit their quotaEPA reverses course, rejects permit for massive oil exporting project offshore from Corpus Christihttps://www.texastribune.org/2022/09/02/texas-oil-epa-export-terminal-corpus-christi/amp/- Supposed to rival LOOP in size- Permit to emit more VOCs than allowable was given by Trump admin but revoked by Biden admin- Mixed message sending is the biggest problemIEA Lowers 2022 Oil Demand Forecast Amid China Lockdowns, Economic Growth Fearshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/iea-lowers-2022-oil-demand-050501715.htmlOil Traders Should Consider Global Demand Forecasts From IEA And OPEChttps://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-traders-should-consider-global-demand-forecasts-from-iea-and-opec-200629867- IEA forecast is based on Chinese demand falling and then increasing- Is this realistic?- Real estate investors can't get their money out of China, China wants to keep Chinese money in China- Xi to be elected President for life- Will China attack Taiwan after this? No real indication that China is going to attack Taiwan. Is this "American propaganda?" (Noam Chomsky's argument)- If China doesn't attack Taiwan what does that mean for oil demand?API Monthly Statistical Report and Quarterly Outlook- Rig activity in US is still down more than 1/5 - combo of energy policy, supply issues, labor issues- Private equity companies are leading oil production this year- Without completion crew we are seeing DUCs accrue in various regions- Are we running low on acreage? NOW there are plenty of sweet spot good rocks to drill. Problem is labor and supply chain constraints. Fiscal constraints are mitigated. Capital access is an issue still.- Lack of support for leasing on federal lands, steel tariffs cause problems, no real backing of oil and gas production from administration.- We are sitting with the lowest SPR since 1985 but consumption is 3 or 4 times higher than in 1985. - Problems getting high voltage lines in communities to build charging stations is a huge challenge so charging stations are putting in diesel generators in California.- Sheer enormity of oil and gas consumption is being ignored. Can't put all the resources into something that is only 10% of global energy (renewables). Neglecting what shoulders the bulk of global energy systems is ... going to have consequences.- Only reason we have oil prices that are lower is because we are papering over the shortage in supply by releasing SPR. - Dichotomy between news about "fears of recession" and the economic indicators. - All in holistic view of oil inventories - they are down. US has basically pushed intelf into a recession with the interest rate increases. Europe is now following- China has potentially got large economic growth.- Dollar is at all time high, making imports for American consumers less expensive. US exports are less price competitive abroad. In the past this creates a wider trade deficit. Erodes investment. Petrochemical margins have now turned negative. Not worth it to build another ethane cracker on the gulf coast, for example. Not just about the sheer productively of the rocks. Its about the entire chain. Global economy is close to 3% growth, which means need 1.5 million bpd more oil each year.- Huge uncertainty now, especially with Russia sanctions coming online soon.- Ultimately supply and demand will determine prices, not the speculative momentum.Rate increases and pricing in recession is causing the opposite to happen with the speculators.- The fact that the economy is expected to actually be "historically strong"- Savings rate is not at recessionary levels and delinquencies in American households is not historically high, only edged up a little. Rebound in consumer sentiment.- IEA, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and OPEC have all said that they don't see investment patterns enough to meet oil demand. EIA forecast is 101 million bpd of global oil demand in 2023. Not enough investment to meet this.- Threat to US and global energy security

Oil Sinks to Six-Month Low on China Outlook, Iran Supply Boosthttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-extends-losses-traders-weigh-225340219.htmlChina's Economy Slows Unexpectedly as Covid and Property Woes Mounthttps://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economy-slows-covid-property-51660559065China's Covid and economic policy:- were they using covid policy to try to exert a downward pressure on prices?- No one was even considering covid as a thing at beginning of 2020. - Prices were getting soft in January 2020 - but if you go back and look at what China was doing in terms of building hospitals, shutting down cities you will see it there.- What benefit would it be for China to give up tool to shut down cities and control economy?- Unemployment for Chinese youth 20%- are they lying about the numbers? what purpose would it serve to make numbers less bad than they are, but still bad? or what purpose would it serve to say things are worse than they are?- Is oil really falling because of Chinese economic data or is it because of other things and China is a convenient excuse?Saudi Aramco profit soars on higher prices and refining marginshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-profit-soars-higher-prices-refining-margins-2022-08-14/- Aramco putting profits into capexDr. Dean Foreman from API about MSR for July- How do we explain falling gasoline prices? Crude oil is about 60% of input costs for gasoline. So drop in gasoline prices is due to drop in crude oil prices All commodities are slipping due to expected global economic weaknessDichotomy in MSR:- commercial stocks building but when take into account SPR releases it swaps everything that has happened with commercial reserves. Market is watching commercial inventories- Note that July has been the highest domestic crude oil production for the month of July - what does this say about whether we might be heading back to record production rates?- At the same time we've got highest petroleum export numbers (9.6 million bpd) since 1947 - what do we know about where this oil is coming from and going to? Highest import numbers as well? How do you think the SPR releases play into this?- SPR releases aren't playing a bigger role. Admin taking a victory lap for bringing down prices but really its fears of global recession, commodity weakness, demand destruction.- Dire global need for oil and natural gas. Numbers show US is playing really crucial role of provider of last resort.- What isn't normal is that we are still releasing SPR when prices are in this environment. We aren't at $135/barrel crude oil. "Interesting that reserve releases have continued."- Once the SPR releases clear up, should get clearer read on how supply and demand meshes.- What about China? Looks like it is doing well in terms of industrial exports. But interest rate cut suggest China's economy needs triage. - What happens if a hurricane hits in late August, Sept, Oct that disrupts production on Gulf coast? U.S. inventories aren't bad around US though east coast its low. Internationally theres a shortage of diesel, but a lot is being pulled from US. Heating oil inventories New England are REALLY low for this part of the year. and Diesel stocks are half of what they were. Price pressure for New England is on! Same issue for mid-Atlantic.- Industry is doing hurricane drills, plans to seek waivers, etc. Planning for weather disruptions.- How will Europe cope with a cold winter? Anecdotally, German households are stockpiling wood.- Believes that China should "muddle through" and some goods from China may become less expensive. - Despite more drilling, crude oil production actually decreased between June and July. Still 1 million bpd down from highest in 2019/2020- NLGs - lots of associated gas produced in TX, get lots of light oil. If produce dry gas like in OH/PA don't get much light oil. Light oil is what we are exporting and is in high demand for foreign buyers.- 1/3 well completions in US last year was a DUC. Latest data for July, is that its way down. Can't get completion crews. Can't grow.- More than half of growth in oil production this year coming from private equity. They locked in services.

Drilling vs returns. U.S. oil producers' tradeoff as windfall tax threatenshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/drilling-vs-returns-us-oil-producers-tradeoff-windfall-tax-threatens-2022-06-13/?taid=62a72ca5802cad0001f87694- will the US pass a windfall tax?- lockdowns have helped created this situation- market responds to incentives. interference in market has gotten us to this spot. why take it out on oil and gas companies.- if we were to windfall tax these companies, is there any indication that this money will be used to anything beneficial to consumersHigh Oil and Gas Prices Test Drive a Global Carbon Taxhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/high-oil-and-gas-prices-test-drive-a-global-carbon-tax-11654956001Biden looking to address oil refinery capacity, White House adviser sayshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/biden-looking-address-oil-refinery-capacity-white-house-adviser-says-2022-06-10/- "He is looking for what he can do administratively, whether that's working with oil companies and refineries asking them, 'We recognize your back capacity challenges - what can we do to help you maintain your refining capacity and bring more oil online?'"US set to resume onshore leasing next weekhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2340345-us-set-to-resume-onshore-leasing-next-week-will there be interest in these leases? is the acreage of interest to drillers?Saudi cuts crude supply to some Chinese refiners in July, sources sayhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/saudi-cuts-crude-supply-some-asian-refiners-july-sources-2022-06-10/- where will oil that isn't going to China refineries end up? Europe?Interview with Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Report- Continuation of same from April- energy demand depends on overall level of economic activity. We are still historically above average (3% growth)- Prediction of 2 million bpd of global oil demand growth. before Russia/Ukraine demand was outstripping production- Slight increase in oil production. Is it enough to move the needle?- Refining products is at or above 5 year range. But without as much upstream production the refiners are drawing down inventories.- As a result of Russia/Ukraine sudden record pull for US oil and products out of US. 9.6 million bpd of US gross petroleum exports. Means we are critical to global supply.- Have to look at, especially on coastal areas of US, stocks are below 5 year average.- API quarterly a year ago was showing that supply gap was coming. Starts with investment and then goes to drilling. Weekly data showed that a supply gap was coming. EIA methodology relies on older data, so leads to some inaccuracies.- 3 months ago the world deficit of supply was quantified at 3 million bpd. May outlook now is 4.2 million bpd.- Big disagreement between EIA and IEA about how much oil from Russia is off the market.- Lots of uncertainty about how much supply is there -- this is impacting price setting. Russian oil production is more likely to be more resilient than expected but can they ship the oil? - Policies attacking industry are culpable.- A ban on petroleum oil exports would be ugly - coastal areas need the most trade and would be hit hardest. The reason the east coast has higher price increases than the west coast is because trade with Europe isn't functioning the way it was. Can't get products from the middle of the country because they are being exported.- heating oil stocks are critically low on the east coast. - strategic reserves that are there to back up commercial reserves but they are being drawn down because of the unprecedentedly large releases.- 40% of what is released is getting exported.- US refiners need heavy oil to run their crackers at full speed but US SPR releases have all been light oil, which explains why so much is being exported. There is heavy oil in the SPR, but its not being released.- still down more than 1 million bpd of production. If you went hard, you could grow that much, we've seen it. BUT lower rig productivity (down 20% year on year as of April), fewer DUCs - only 4% of new wells were DUCs in April now. Have almost exported in terms of production. Gap of 25% in terms of drilling activity compared to 2019.- industrial side of the economy is still growing but more slowly. consumer sentiment, preliminary reading, for June is lowest since the survey was started. Consumers are WORRIED. - Critical that we see, with sincerity, the policy proposals to incentivize US production. If none, it will be hard to dig ourselves out of the hole we are in.

Oil giant Aramco reports record first quarter as oil prices soarhttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/15/aramco-worlds-largest-company-reports-record-first-quarter-as-oil-prices-soar.html- Aramco not doing share buybacks like other oil companies. Awarding 1 share for every 10- increasing capacity to 13 million bpd by 2026/2027 but will they ever produce that much?- the longer Saudi Arabia fails to produce up to its OPEC quota the more people will believe they can't. Damaging narrative could push oil prices up more.Domestic flight bookings fell by 17% in April as air fares continued to risehttps://www.businessinsider.com/domestic-flight-bookings-fell-17-in-april-as-fares-continue-to-rise-2022-5- can't go anywhere for less than $700?!- will this crimp the economy and demand?Can China preserve both its economy and its zero-tolerance COVID-19 policy?https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2022-05-06/can-china-preserve-both-its-economy-and-its-zero-tolerance-covid-19-policy- Will China just never open up again?- Will it keep its people inside China?- Impact on Belt Road initiative. Tourism to places. What does it mean to US companies with offices in China?- How much of global oil demand is based on global travel between China and rest of world?Dr. Dean Foreman and API - highest quarter of US petroleum demand in history. but US economy contracted in Q1.- Tale of 1st 2 months and last 2 months. January and February were very high. Pulled back in March and April data shows big drop. 19.3 million bpd demand.- Biggest change is in intermediate products in petrochemicals. Consumer goods are slowing down. - Motor fuels and price repression: seeing some of that. gasoline demand has leveled off even though seasonally it should be going up. Distillate demands going down. Over $6/gallon for diesel in some states is causing fuel substitution.- Supply side: would suspect that given drilling activity increases should see more oil and did see that - increase of 100,000-200,000 bpd but NLGs went DOWN.- Demand outpacing supply, which didn't increase on whole.- Fewer DUCs, rig activity not increasing. Oil services costs are escalating.- All of this means need even more drilling activity to get back to 2019 production levels. Demand is back at 2019 levels.- Started year as net importer. But with Russia/Ukraine now having record pull for US exports. Crisis period with global refiners pulling oil and product out of US, adding to price pressure. Normally being an exporter is a good story, but when you are short on product that's bad for prices.- Trade is working great on West coast, but East coast not doing well because they generally trade products with Europe, and that's under pressure in Europe.- Historically has been very resilient system but unprecedented times and discontinuities and uncertainties about how much Russian crude is lost from market. - Likely we are seeing demand destruction. Summer driving season increase will be muted. But with airline prices up, people may drive more (fuel substitution).- lowest commercial crude oil inventories since 2014. normally through April 2022, year to date, you would be building up inventories as refiners draw on inventories to spool up for summer driving season. Average build over decade (excluding 2is 020) 40 million barrels. This year 1.8 million barrels. - SPR. DoE wants to replenish SPR soon. Signaling to market that starting in fall would like to replenish. Expect supply response. - EIA thinks less than 1 million bpd lost. But IEA saying as much as 3 million bpd lost by May.- Price reaction to uncertainty over how much Russian oil is lost to market.- If we release 180 million barrels from SPR over next several months will have lowest inventories since 1983.- Political reactions to high prices: NOPEC legislation (lift anti-trust legislation) Price controls (unlikely to get much political support), proposals to re-ban oil exports from US.- No US policies are supporting return to big production

Russia is pumping nearly 10% less oil than before it invaded Ukraine, satellite imagery suggestshttps://www.businessinsider.com/russia-pumping-less-oil-since-ukraine-war-began-satellite-data-2022-4- Russian oil production- China planning to cut refinery runs significantly due to lower demand (lockdowns) - could this bring global prices down?- Will Russia have to continue to cut production if China doesn't buy and it has no more storage capacity?- could China be locking down in order to get oil prices to drop for their economy?Putin Sets Energy Goals to Reflect New Realityhttps://www.energyintel.com/00000180-4396-d58f-a7cd-ebf7eb490000Making Sense of India's Newfound Love for Russian Oilhttps://www.fairobserver.com/politics/making-sense-of-indias-newfound-love-for-russian-oil- India has always been going the "Third Way"- It has always been friendly to Russia/USSR AND the west in a bipolar world.- India can't be expected to pay a premium for fuel because of their economy, if it's available for a discount.Abu Dhabi crude to head to Europe, replace Russian oilhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/frances-totalenergies-ship-abu-dhabi-crude-europe-rare-move-sources-2022-04-25/- predictable but will these new patterns last and for how long?- How will american producers react? Will they try to lock in new international customers?A Persian Gulf Stock Boom Draws Foreign Investorshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/a-persian-gulf-stock-boom-draws-foreign-investors-11650884401Dean Foreman- February was the highest demand for any single month going back to August 2005- March demand was down but still relatively strong- Supply needs to step up!- Massive pull for crude oil and refined products out of the United States because international prices higher than domestic prices. - Rigs in the 500s now as opposed to pre-Covid rigs in the 800s- Production down from December - down by 100,000 bpd until March. Back up in March and in April 100,000 bpd more.- March 2022 vs. March 2019, global oil drilling down 22%, down 29% in US- productively of oil producers in US is backsliding- cost escalation- spending on drilling went up by 1/3 between quarters but doesn't necessarily contribute to higher productivity.- DUCs - 1 in 3 in US last year. This year more like 1 in 5. Industry isn't relying on DUCs to same extent as last year. Means need more production to sustain current production. Need more investment and more drilling.- Prices redetermine costs. - trucking markets MAY HAVE reached a pause- jet fuel is up- more urban commuting but motor gasoline still back to usual but not higher than 2019 levels- intermediate products demand has pulled back in March. Not a trend but could be.- Is petroleum demand normalizing as economy returns to "normal"?- SPR release: will it help with prices since we aren't seeing a supply dislocation?- Dr. Foreman says that if they'd just released heavy crude it would have had more of an impact on prices in the US than light crude releases do. 700,000 barrels of the SPr release went to exports. Not all of it, but a significant amount.- SPR inventories at their lowest point since 2002. If this continues, we will have lowest SPR reserves since 1984

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute (API) joined Grayson Brulte on The Road To Autonomy Podcast to discuss the current state of the oil and gas markets.The conversation begins with Dean discussing the the unprecedented move by the Biden Administration to release 1 million barrels of oil per day for 180 days from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and the global demand for oil.The U.S. Energy Administration estimated coming into this year, in December that we were at a global deficit of more than 3 million barrels per day. That's with global demand outstripping or exceeding the supply or production level globally for oil. – Dean ForemanFurther putting this into perspective, in February 2022, the U.S. petroleum demand was 21.6 million barrels per day. The highest level of demand since August 2005. A portion of the demand is being driven by freight shipping partly as a result of the increase in online shopping. Another factor driving petroleum demand is COVID-19 tests as they are made from plastic. The molecules for the tests made of plastic start as oil and natural gas. In February 2022 more then 7 million barrels of oil out of the 21.6 million barrels of U.S. petroleum demand, about a 3rd were used to create petrochemical from a refining process that directly correlates with the global increase in demand for COVID-19 tests, which are made of plastic. Out of the 21.6 million barrels of U.S. petroleum demand, 4.3 million barrels a day were distillates (diesel). Between plastics and the increase in online shopping, almost 50% of U.S. petroleum demand (February 2022) was driven by consumer behavior. With petroleum demand increasing, the Keystone XL pipeline could help fill the demand. Dean shares what economic impact it would have on the market if the pipeline came online and heavy crude starting flowing from Western Canada to the United States. Expanding upon this conversation, Grayson and Dean discuss the current state of the U.S. economy and what the potential economic outlook looks like as the Federal Reserve begins to taper. As the economy goes, so does demand. – Dean ForemanDiving back into the oil markets, Grayson highlights the price of U.S. New York Harbor Jet Fuel which has risen 83% in the last 30 days to $744.32 a barrel (as of April 5, 2022). The price increase is a local issue, due to the lack of regional refining and the fact that jet fuel in the New York region has to be imported. From a global perspective, the global demand for oil was 100 million barrels per day in Q1 2022. The demand for oil is outpacing market supply by 3.2 million barrels per day.Demand is continuing to outstrip supply. – Dean ForemanGlobal Oil & Gas drilling activity is down 38% compared with February 2019. With a slowdown in drilling and a growing global demand for oil, Dean discusses the market from an economic standpoint. From a global perspective you got to have 4 to 6 million barrels per day of new oil just to sustain the production level this year. – Dean ForemanThe growth is only going to continue as according to the International Energy Agency, 46% of the world's energy will be produced by oil and natural gas. Wrapping up the conversation, Dean shares his thoughts on the future of energy.Recorded on Friday, April 8, 2021.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

API's top economist explains how US domestic affairs and the conflict in Ukraine are conspiring to raise the cost of oil.

Russia/Ukraine - will Russia invade?- What does Russia want? Expansion = national security- Will Ukraine allow Eastern Ukraine to separate?Crude oil futures slip after opening surge as risk appetite waneshttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/petrochemicals/022122-crude-oil-futures-slip-after-opening-surge-as-risk-appetite-wanes- What's the risk premium on oil? $10? $7 per barrel- Russia prepared to reorient oil and gas exports to China - won't be instantaneous but Russia better prepared to reorient than US and Europe- What would the sanctions be? no clue because US and Europe still obfuscatingArab oil producers say OPEC+ should stick to current output agreementhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/arab-oil-producers-say-opec-should-stick-current-output-agreement-2022-02-20/-Mazroui: "We are all hoping for the de-escalation... I think our plan has been working and I don't believe that the market is hugely under-supplied currently. It's the other factors that are outside our hands which are impacting the market." What does a market where we aren't hugely undersupplied look like?3 states with shuttered nuclear plants see emissions risehttps://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/17/3-states-with-shuttered-nuclear-plants-see-emissions-rise-00009034- The rise in emissions follows the closure of three nuclear facilities in Massachusetts, New York and Pennsylvania since 2019U.N. pact may restrict plastic production. Big Oil aims to stop ithttps://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/un-pact-may-restrict-plastic-production-big-oil-aims-stop-it-2022-02-18/Big banks fund new oil and gas despite net zero pledgeshttps://www.bbc.com/news/business-60366054https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/595002-five-ways-that-biden-could-help-reduce-spiking-consumer-costs-at?rl=1API With the Monthly Statistical Report for January- API | MSR: Record Demand, Flat Production, U.S. Remains Petroleum Net Importer- Total US petroleum demand highest in January - with petrochemicals for plastics in VERY high demand.- Can this trend continue or will it normalize? Investments made on belief that this will endure.- How important is it? 7 million bpd. Really solid even if took out demand for petrochemicals- DEI: technically we are still in a declared recession but DEI gives indications of industrial production. Positive slowing at diminishing rate of growth- Shows industrial side of US economy continuing to do quite well.- Relative dearth of domestic crude oil production appears to have eroded the feedstock advantage of many U.S. refiners, which in turn reinforced lower refinery throughput and capacity utilization rates.- Average of 6 rigs added per week for 1st 6 weeks of year but compared to 2019, oil rigs are still down 40%. Going to take awhile to catch up- Will refiners need to import? US is net importer in January. A little over $3/barrel difference between US crude production and imports. That covers the cost of importing. Refining advantage has eroded.- Price advantage in terms of operations and feedstock has eroded and is showing.- Big drop in refined product exports in December. EIA showing global oil demand back above 2019 levels but demand for US exports down 2 million bpd.- Impact on NGLs, propane, etc. ethane has been between 30 and 40 cents/gallon. Its up but not too much. Propane has doubled from 60 cents to $1.20/gallon. US petchems rely on propane to make products. Asian producers use naptha to make ethylene. US producers use ethane or propane to make ethylene. NGL extraction at record high (5 million bpd) in January.- propane use has quietly expanded with US energy revolution- investment update coming next month- basically still have a moratorium on drilling. FERC, etc. not authorized to issue new LNG permits WHILE we are trying to assure allies in Europe that we can send them natural gas. could generate investment to get it going to help Europe but it's not moving anywhere.

In this episode of 'Cliff Notes on the Global Manufacturing Picture', Dr. Dean Foreman, Chief Economist of the American Petroleum Institute, joined host Cliff Waldman for a wide-ranging discussion of energy issues, present, and future. Dean overviewed oil market distortions arising from the pandemic, Russian aggression, inflation and supply chain challenges. He also offered analysis of the markets for natural gas and gasoline. In the last part of the episode, the discussion turned to climate change, with a focus on technology and the role of the federal government in incentivizing climate-driven energy innovations. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two Anne Arundel power plants announce plans to transition from coal to oil, get green light from Maryland Public Service Commissionhttps://www.baltimoresun.com/news/environment/bs-md-brand-shores-ha-wagner-coal-to-oil-psc-approval-20220113-zdwx3gcwjvbtzjn3blqdhyqux4-story.html- what benefit will switching from coal to oil provide? power plant says it will only operate at 8% of capacity to emit less emissions because oil costs moreOil's bull run rolls on despite possible China reserves releasehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-eases-investors-eye-us-oil-release-china-demand-concerns-2022-01-14/- people traveling ahead of Lunar New Year incase of lockdowns- won't have much of an impact on prices, at least outside of China- What's going on with inflation in China? is it an issue? China's 2021 oil refinery output rises 4.3% to record on strong demandhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-2021-oil-refinery-output-rises-43-record-strong-fuel-demand-2022-01-17/U.S. talks to energy firms on EU gas supply in case of Russia-Ukraine conflicthttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-us-talks-energy-firms-over-eu-gas-supply-case-russia-ukraine-conflict-2022-01-15/- companies say that there isn't oil to spare- Russia supplies 1/3 of natural gas to EuropeEurope's Governments Face a Reckoning as Energy Prices Surgehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/europe-governments-face-reckoning-energy-050012699.html- energy prices dropped 10% on news of more LNG cargoes, slightly higher tempsSpecial Guest Dr. R Dean Foreman on Dec 2021 MSR- Demand strength has been resilient - turned up by Omicron. More driving, less flying, higher diesel, more intermediate petrochemicals needed for medical plastics- IEA shows 101 million bpd demand in December 2021- Continued global very strong demand growth- strongest distillate demand since 2014 driven by trucking- Lower exports of refined petroleum products in December - seeing level of refining activity has ratcheted up but still lowest throughput. We are now importing more and the difference between WTI and Brent is lower. Dearth of domestic production. Such a minimal difference has reduced margins and made US refining less desirable abroad.- We are seeing both a drop in refining activity relative to where it would have been in 2019. Also exports are down. Getting a double whammy hit. Feedstock isn't cheap anymore.- Inventories exclude SPR tracking. We are using SPR to politically manage prices. But if economy globally stays on track and supply can't keep up, may actually need SPR reserves to alleviate shortages- Crude oil inventories below 5 year average- Market needs barrels to make ends meet. Investment is needed in new oil production.- If you take apart EIA Short Term Energy Outlook - last year EIA was showing 5 million bpd demand rebound but less production rebound. This year think we will see 3.5 million bpd demand rebound but MORE production to come from US. But can't see with US drilling activity can't see how we can get to 1.2 million bpd of growth as an average. We will need to add barrels every week to get to what EIA thinks we will be doing. - The DUCs aren't completely gone but are cut in half at least in Permian. Half of completions in Bakken were DUCs last year. But even with more DUCs we will need more production growth.- Refiners have adapted to lower jet fuel demand. They can change the mix if needed. But if jet fuel demand comes back can the market accommodate it?- Jet fuel had been strengthening and then collapsed in December- Urban gasoline deliveries down but rural gasoline deliveries up- Economy in US and Europe, despite all the headwinds, is strong. Need to make sure things remain affordable for consumers.

Hello! I'm Dean Foreman and this is Dean's List, a show all about interviewing artists and learning about their processes.

NJ Ayuk's Book:https://amzn.to/3dUujVqUS urges domestic oil producers to raise outputhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2283072-us-urges-domestic-oil-producers-to-raise-output- Jennifer Granholm tells members of the National Petroleum Council to please drill and hire people- Also says Biden won't return to a crude oil export banCHINA DATA: Independent refiners lift run rates to 5-month high as margins holdhttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/121421-china-data-independent-refiners-lift-run-rates-to-5-month-high-as-margins-hold- China indep refineries increasing run rates to enjoy attractive margins- Is this a good sign for the Chinese economy or not?Europe facing record low gas storage by winter's endhttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/europe-facing-record-low-gas-storage-by-winters-end-2021-12-14/- Russia hasn't fulfilled its promise to fill up Gazprom's oil stocks- Russia shouldn't be counted on to keep its promisesThe Federal Reserve Faces a Troubling 1965 Parallelhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-14/the-federal-reserve-faces-a-troubling-1965-inflation-parallel- Argues that the fed needs to aggressively raise interest rates to get inflation down to 2% but the current Fed doesn't seem willing to do this because it would the stock marketEuropean Union stands united on Russia sanctions, top diplomat sayshttps://www.reuters.com/world/eu-says-studying-russia-sanctions-with-britain-us-2021-12-13/- Is the threat of sanctions real?- If you sanction Russian energy it will hurt Europe- Will Russia actually invade Ukraine? Many think this is unlikely, especially in the winter?Dr. Foreman and the Monthly Statistical Review- Surprising things from 2021: strength of demand and lack of investment and political shift that has occured this year- Trucking and distillate demand strong in November: retail model in America has shifted towards online. gasoline is slightly down compared to 2019 but diesel is up, jet fuel down and materials up. Trucking has buoyed distillate demand.- shipping helped double double residual fuel demand- Inflation: fuel prices are contributing to inflation but even if you take food and energy out, inflation is still going up. energy price is elevated and impacts 20-30% of food costs (fertilizer, transportation, etc.) Inflation is making things $350 more expensive for average US household, which most households don't have. GRound up data says this is a pressure point for households.- Reading the energy data for the future starts with the economy - despite all of the concerns, consensus estimates are showing 4.2% global growth in 2022 and 3.2% global growth in 2023. Economic growth is depending on oil and gas availability and need more to fuel economic growth. Inflation could take the wind out of the global economy, but not sure yet.- Correlation between spending growth and consumer sentiment. - Economic indicators are showing economic strength but there are a number of pressure points that could take us off track.- Oil and gas projects in funnel - anything past point of no return we've seen followed through, other things canceled. LNG projects canceled, petrochemical projects completed not canceled, refining projects canceled?- majority of global energy investment is in upstream (drilling). If looking at drilling activity as corresponding with investment, we are still down 30% from where we were in 2019.- International gas markets are a microcosm of what happens with a complete disconnect between supply and demand. Spot prices in Netherlands are showing never before seen prices.- Monthly average prices in excess of $35 per million BTUs in Europe and Asia- In US we've pulled back prices to under $4 per million BTU. Gas markets are regionally disconnected and little equalization seen- Why is there a dearth of investment? Supply chain, Covid, etc. How to remedy that? Lack of skilled labor to replace people when they go out with Covid. Problems getting pipes etc. through Port of Louisiana and trucked to where it is needed. Banks closing off credit lines, multilateral lines don't want to lend internationally to emerging economies. Immense debt taken on by companies is catching up with them. Policy issues - industry could use some help to get back up from recession and policy headwinds are against them, making drilling more expensive. Hard to make long-lived investments in industry when policy is against it even though market shows how much US NEEDS oil and gas drilling.- Why are prices up? drilling down, imports up, inventories low- U.S. exports: products exports down, crude oil imports dropped, crude oil exports increased this week. Average net petroleum imports for last 4 weeks is about 1 million bpd for U.S.- Could potentially see nearly doubling of petroleum imports!- If the economy is going to contract, recession then maybe we don't need more investment in oil and gas- If interest rates, what is the implication? US stands out in a negative way in terms of debt - expected to careen out whereas others are expected to remain flat. US has no trouble facing debt now but second only to Japan in relying on short term financing to place 45% of its debt. - If suddenly take 3 million bpd of US oil exports off the market, could put world into recession. Would be like Abqaiq attack. Have a short term impact to US prices but then would even out. Instantly East and West coasts would see higher prices.- Exports shouldn't be blamed for higher prices.

Dean Foreman, chief economist with the American Petroleum Institute (API) What to expect with Energy prices this winter, and the impacts that closing Line 5 would have on Michigan and beyond. 

A conversation with the American Petroleum Institute's Dean Foreman about world and domestic energy policies and their impact on prices.

Ellen R. Wald, Ph.D.2:21 PM (0 minutes ago)to me, EllenCrazy' Bets on $200 Oil Invade the Options Markethttps://www.wsj.com/articles/crazy-bets-on-200-oil-invade-the-options-market-11634463002- Will WTI go over $100 per barrel- Options don't mean that traders actually think that oil will go to that high but the best indicate directional movesEnergy Crisis Prompts Asia to Turn to USA for Oilhttps://www.rigzone.com/news/wire/energy_crisis_prompts_asia_to_turn_to_usa_for_oil-18-oct-2021-166745-article- Asian buyers are buying more US sour crude cargoes for delivery in November and December- Mostly because WTI is trading at a $3 discount to BrentWill $80 Oil Open Shale's Spigots?https://www.energyintel.com/0000017c-85a2-d141-a17c-a5fad5170000- What if US rig count suddenly increases? Will that change OPEC's calculus?- If Permian increases, U.S. natural gas production will increase too.Coast guard: California oil pipeline may have been dragged by cargo shiphttps://news.yahoo.com/coast-guard-california-oil-pipeline-191111477.html- Is there anything that can't be blamed on container ships and the global supply chain?https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/576600-how-utilities-could-offset-the-coming-winters-record-high-energy?rl=1Dr. Dean Foreman from API Energy- highest gasoline prices since 2014!- highest natural gas prices since 2008!- domestic markets are relatively well supplied but Europe and Asian markets are short- D-E-I indicator: tracks roughly with the year on year change in industrial production. Still positive, signalling that the broader economy in US should continue to grow though there were some manufacturing indicators in U.S. that indicate industry beginning to slow.- Will energy prices start to weigh on economic growth? Not seeing this in the D-E-I indicator but there are some concerns over this, especially with Fed policy.- Oil prices have risen but there's no shortage. With gas, there is a shortage in Europe and Asia. Spot cargoes going for many times the average.- Some drilling response in U.S. Adding 7-10 rigs/week. Drilling picking up in lag. Is that enough to meet EIA predictions? According to EIA, US needs to add 1.8 million bpd to hit $60-$70 per barrel. - Cost escalation in oil industry is significant. That is going to make break-even prices increase a lot. Supply chain issues, tariffs on steel and other materials, labor shortages.- Hard to catch up to lack of investment. In Q2 only saw about $37 billion in investment. Compare to $68 billion at same point in 2019. Only half of what we saw during Great Recession adjusted for inflation. Capital projects down $110 billion year on year.- If you pile on policy from Biden admin saying that they want half of all US electricity to come from solar by 2030 how do you get funding for a multibillion dollar natural gas drilling project in Pennsylvania approved?- Highest for the month of September of NGL production! Economic decision to take NGLs out of natural gas. - Illinois has the second lowest stores on record as of last EIA report. - US has pretty much maximized output of LNG for the terminals we have. - 20.6 million bpd of petroleum demand in US - record high for September.- Refined products exports lowest since May 2020: why? Some issues due to Hurricane Ida but also US trending to become net petroleum importer as opposed to exporter. Broader trend over last 6-7 months is that US is back to net importer.

BIC Magazine's Jana Stafford talks with Dean Foreman, Chief Economist at API, about the recent divergence in the U.S. energy revolution.

Natural-Gas Prices Surge, and Winter Is Still Months Awayhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-gas-prices-surge-and-winter-is-still-months-away-11631986861- historically speaking crude oil prices actually do warrant new drilling but companies aren't.- Why aren't companies drilling more? Lack of money? Why isn't the money interested?Oil falls as storm-hit U.S. supply trickles back into markethttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steady-us-storm-hit-supply-returns-slowly-2021-09-17/- Will Europe be forced to turn to burning fuel oil this winter for electricity when natural gas and coal are too expensive and will that push oil prices up?- Change in policy could dampen sentiment for movement.Equinor to pump up gas supply for tight European markethttps://www.offshore-energy.biz/equinor-to-pump-up-gas-supply-for-tight-european-market/- Can Norway save the day for Europe? Perhaps.Trade group wants restrictions on U.S. natural gas exportshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/trade-group-wants-restrictions-us-natural-gas-exports-2021-09-17/- Will restricting LNG exports help curb US natural gas prices?- IECA says US natural gas prices would need to double from where they are now to spur more drilling. Chemicals, Food, Materials could become more expensive or face shortages.- Government intervention in terms of promoting natural gas drilling.Oil giant Shell sets sights on sustainable aviation fuel take-offhttps://www.reuters.com/business/sustainable-business/oil-giant-shell-sets-sights-sustainable-aviation-fuel-take-off-2021-09-19/- How big of a "thing" is this? Crops could be used to feed people - industrial agriculture is NOT sustainable.China faces a potential Lehman moment. Wall Street is unfazedhttps://www.cnn.com/2021/09/16/business/wall-street-evergrande-china/index.htmlChina's Evergrande Moment Is Looking More LTCM Than Minskyhttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-20/china-s-evergrande-moment-is-looking-more-ltcm-than-minskyWhat is China going to do? Ryan's Read: China will do whatever it has to. Can't seperate this story from Taiwan.Dr. Dean Foreman and API Monthly Statistical ReportGlobal natural gas issues:- For this time of year we have never had higher prices- Reflects Russian gas inventories are historically low, wind is underperforming & gas needed to prevent brownouts and LNG shipments being snapped up like crazy- Global natural gas market? Not yet because still so much less being trading internationally than oil- Rush to get cargoes available.Domestic natural gas:- Baker Hughes rig counts have actually gone down despite higher prices- Should be able to drill all day and make money- Producers in Gulf Coast have access to premium markets and should be able to export to internationally markets- Producers in PA, etc. don't have access to global value chainAre exports to blame for US prices?- actually exports motivate production. Haynesville is good example. On the margin there is some and it is creating pressure. Seek to place blame, consumer anger.- We have rolled back prices to before the shale revolution.- Should be able to drill profitably in every major basin so what's the problem? EIA modelled a healthy drilling response and we haven't seen that. Supply chain issues, risk tolerance issues, workforce issues, policy environment, debt taken on my companies- Pipeline capacity isn't really an issue. There are some isolated areas that have bottlenecks and there is flaring, but mostly not.Summer oil demand:- 23 million bpd of oil demand - higher than 2019. - Fuels may be switched around (more gasoline and distillate than jet fuel)- Other oils: intermediate oils naphtha and propylene, etc. historically have been 1/4 of demand, now it's over 30%. In August just under 28%.- Drilling responsiveness isn't there. What are the odds that we will get 1.8 million bpd of production growth in US between now and end of year? Note likely, especially with how rig counts haven't been growing.- Some price issues should recede as supply chain issues resolve but with oil and gas, it's a different issue. If the economy remains on track, we will see serious pressure on oil and gas in next year. Lack of investment, long lead time for projects outside the US.- EIA says global projected highs for oil demand are higher than 2019. IEA has a more bearish view on fossil fuels.- If supply can't keep up with economic growth then it could push prices up which will stifle demand.- Numbers economically are scorching hot - so much stimulus and it has had an impact. Even if price inflation overshoots, we will still see a lot of growth.- Global capital investment has significantly declined. Drilling activity has been muted.

Watch us on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/c/WarRoomMediaListen to Inside the War Room: https://shor.by/insidethewarroomOil prices drop amid faltering demand outlook in Chinahttps://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/16/oil-markets-demand-outlook-in-china-covid.html- Is it Delta variant? Is is lockdowns? Is it crackdowns on independent refiners?- Are there larger economic forces at play in Chinese demand?- Can China put pressure on OPEC to provide what they want?OPEC+ sees no need to speed up oil cuts easing despite U.S. callshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-sees-no-need-speed-up-oil-cuts-easing-despite-us-calls-sources-2021-08-16/- Doesn't cost Biden any political capital to call for lower oil prices- No surprise that OPEC said no- OPEC is already increasing productionChina Has Thousands of Hydropower Projects It Doesn't Wanthttps://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/china-has-thousands-of-hydropower-projects-it-doesnt-want- government planning is not as great as people make it out to be- going to have to fix these dams- China can pull off a lot of amazing projects but also does a lot of really idiotic stuffModi says India will soon unveil $1.35 trln infrastructure planhttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-modi-says-135-trillion-infrastructure-plan-be-unveiled-soon-2021-08-15/- infrastructure spending plan will increase oil demand- have to generate economic growth after killing medium and small businessesRosneft to chase production growthhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2244244-rosneft-to-chase-production-growth- future is still oil for Russia- Rosneft is expanding its oil production capacityDr. Dean Foreman on the Monthly Statistical Report- Demand is back, and so is the economy! Summer travel and pent up demand for travel- Comparing summer demand to November 2019 demand is still a little off, but If compare July 2021 to July 2019 only off a little bit.- Gasoline demand is strong into August- Lowest crude oil inventories since December 2019. Drawn down 16% year on year. A little under 7% of lowest point of last 5 years.- Refinery utilization is very strong (91%). ONly 2019 did we average higher. Exports are down. Still a net exporter for refined products, though more crude oil imports.- Distillate economic indicator - overheating economy and facing inflationary pressures. This is correlated with Univ Michigan consumer sentiment survey,- Petrochemicals have been the strongest area of sustained growth for US oil. Continuing need for plastics. Record demand in July. 5.6 million bpd consumed.- Creeping up of oil directed rigs this year. Have generally been range bound in production in US and only just broke out of that range for June and July - 11.3 million bpd. Good sign for where crude oil production might go, but will take awhile. Natural gas is another story. 6 month future prices are $4/million btu and would indicate more natural gas drilling activity. Why aren't we seeing this? Capital constraints and people constraints. - If you are in Appalachia and want to drill you are finding yourself constrained by a variety of factors including no way to export it and pipeline constraints bringing it to domestic markets.- There is a real cost to being a net importer again.

Dr. Dean Foreman and June MSRhttps://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlook- validating what we've seen- Urban driving activity on the gasoline side + tourism- Jet fuel demand is up, June is the strongest month so far. 4th straight month of increase for jet fuel. 8% increase from May. Still 1/5 below where it was in 2019. International travel hasn't picked up yet.- petrochemicals: medical plastics and packing plastics demand continuing from last year. double digit gains from last year.- Total demand for distillates has basically peaked, but on growth on a year to year basis its showing strong economic activity and industrial growth. Strong sign of growth.- Refining picking up, inventories there, ready to be used. Crude oil inventories are edging down. Indication that supply for crude oil isn't keeping up with demand. We are importing more of what we need. We have an issue looking out over next year. When we consider demand growth with drilling activity even with strong productivity at well level, we need to see more drilling activity than we've been seeing to keep up.- Inventories are at the bottom of the 5 year band. Relatively low. But the upper end of the band was expanded with major inventory builds in 2020.- Permian doesn't have pipeline constraints but other basins have pipeline constraints so there may be hesitancy to invest in more production. But they can all be profitable at recent prices.- Pickup in crude oil exports from US in June. Pull from international demand. Exports will soon be blamed for lifting prices in the US. - Inflation: Federal reserve needs to look harder at oil and gas and inflation, especially impact on consumers. EIA has assumed that domestic drilling would be and will be stronger than it has been.- Natural gas outlook: drilling activity low, spot prices for natural gas high, futures curve, would seen like its economic to do dedicated natural gas drilling. There is some pick up in Ohio and Pennsylvania drilling but lack of associated natural gas from fracking.www.api.orgBuilding Solar Farms May Not Build the Middle Classhttps://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/16/business/economy/green-energy-jobs-economy.html- operating solar and wind plants aren't the same as oil, gas and nuclear plants and don't require the same type of skilled workers or as many so when plants shut down, workers are losing jobsEuropean aircraft movements rising: Eurocontrolhttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2235622-european-aircraft-movements-rising-eurocontrol- flights are up to 23,000 compared to 36,000 on the same day in 2019.Emissions could hit new record by 2023 without more spending on clean energyhttps://financialpost.com/commodities/energy/renewables/less-than-15-of-covid-19-recovery-spending-went-to-green-energy- even with more spending on clean energy emissions will riseOil firms after slide but COVID-19 and supply concerns remainhttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-steadies-after-rout-rising-covid-19-cases-opec-supply-deal-2021-07-20/

Column - Global passenger aviation's uneven recovery from the pandemic: Kempwww.reuters.com/article/us-global-aviation-kemp-column/column-global-passenger-aviations-uneven-recovery-from-the-pandemic-kemp-idUKKCN2DX1M1- domestic travel in the US is up - TSA screened 2.1 million travelers on Sunday- business travel people will put up with the restrictions and possibly getting stuck. Leisure won't pick up until the covid protocols go awayClimate Policies Could Hand Power and Profits Back to OPEChttps://foreignpolicy.com/2021/06/16/climate-goals-opec-oil-prices-energy-crisis-shortages-fossil-fuels/#- NOCs are in position to make a lot of money as oil prices trend higher and western companies divest from fossil fuels- balance of power is shifting towards Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, etc.- Are shale producers de facto cahooting with OPEC by not producing more- will investors continue to keep out of oil companies as oil prices get higher?Why oil prices may shoot at least 15% higher: Goldman Sachshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-oil-prices-may-shoot-at-least-15-higher-goldman-sachs-130028408.htmlThe Natural-Gas Glut Has Evaporated, Driving Prices Higherhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-natural-gas-glut-has-evaporated-driving-prices-higher-11624134728- Less drilling, drought meaning the demand for natural gas is up and the supply isn't keeping upDr. Dean Foreman - API Monthly Statistical Report- The economy is coming back! The data show. Demand in April and May is within a hair of where it was in 2019, the highest demand in 11 years.- $20 trillion of economic stimulus is doing something, perhaps, in a broad sense. Causing price inflation and showing up in petroleum demand- Urban commuting picking up- Trend that contrast is when we look at capex, investment and drilling activity- NEVER been lower, even during Great Financial crisis in 2008.- Many companies say they are "people limited" have to find employees.- Is it just a US issue? - MENA region is also not showing growth. Sovereign level too.- Record demand recovery and also need to replace natural decline in oil wells. Record low - Policy really matters - in Colorado new setback rules have pushed drilling to the edges of the basin. This is why breakeven price has risen there.- Bakken basin shift isn't related to regulatory activity- Private companies vs. public companies drilling: less questioning for private companies so they can ramp up faster. Public companies more capital discipline.- Will US drilling be as nimble as they have been?- Drilling activity isn't keeping up with EIA model for US drilling. They expect over 1 million bpd more from US and it doesn't look like that's happening. - Brent/WTI price differential is less than $1 per barrel. Tells us that there's a pull for US crude as opposed to Brent and that is pushing the price differential down. - Consumers aren't planning for continued rise in prices. Federal leasing moratorium, tax proposals, state regulations are factoring into price expectations in futures markets and that factors into our prices today.- we know that people are driving less and flying less, but shift towards freight shipping is picking up the slack in oil consumption- naphtha and other products are WAY up. enduring need for medical plastics and packaging to support online retailing.- Instead of 13 million bpd of production in 2019, US is only around 11 million bpd and the difference is coming from imports.- Even though we have very high oil exports in May, we're still importing more oil.- We need more investment and policies that enable that. We are seeing the result of less investment in oil and gas resources right now.

Check out Ellen’s new column: Green Energy Solutions Start at Factory Gateshttps://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-17/green-energy-factories-can-solve-emissions-by-generating-own-powerBlackouts Threaten Entire U.S. West This Summer as Heat Awaitshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-west-facing-white-knuckle-111527363.html- the issue is that coal and gas powered plants are closing and not being replaced, not the rapidly changing climate. Demand is outpacing supply and wildfires make it even more difficult.- Sweden also had less spare capacity because they are closing nuclear plants. Curbing electricity exports.Solar panels are key to Biden's energy plan. But the global supply chain may rely on forced labor from Chinahttps://www.cnn.com/2021/05/14/energy/china-solar-panels-uyghur-forced-labor-dst-intl-hnk/index.html- Report “In Broad Daylight: Uyghur Forced Labor and Global Solar Supply Chains- components for solar energy “may be created with dirty coal and forced labor”APIEnergy Monthly Statistical Report- demand is almost back but not nearly- 19.6 million bpd for April, up 2.5% from March- crude oil production: wavered between 10.5 million bpd and 11 million bpd despite structural downturn in drilling.- despite high prices, drilling is historically long- ramifications for EIA’s outlook. This week’s EIA weekly petroleum status report has 1 million bpd downgrade in natural gas liquids. But this data has been there since February and they are just beginning to reflect on it. More supply pressures in the data than has been shown. Retroactive changes.- If the expectation is for record oil demand growth for next 2 years, EIA expects US to supply 30% of the supply to meet that. But drilling activity isn’t picking up right now to match that.- US economic growth plus lack of oil production growth means we are a net importer.- Refinery throughput was 15.5 mbpd in April, increase of 6.6% from March. Inventories in good shape going into Colonial Pipeline issue last week. But its not back from where it was. EIA data showed 2.5 million bpd drop in exports before Colonial Pipeline. Refiners are gearing up but we have to watch May carefully to see where we are heading for the summer.- Jet fuel: jet fuel delivery is up 7.7% from March, but 31.2% below April 2019. We are adding a lot of domestic flights back, but not so many international flights.- Can the sudden pick up in jet fuel demand be met by supply chain?

Dean Foreman, Chief Economist, American Petroleum Institute (API), and Prentiss Searles, Petroleum Marketing Policy Manager, American Petroleum Institute (API) joined Grayson Brulte on The Road To Autonomy Podcast to discuss the economic impact of the U.S. oil industry.The conversation begins with Dean sharing an overview of the current state of the U.S. oil markets.We have historically strong demand, potentially record demand this year and next combined. Weak drilling activity, weak investment. That opens the question of just the extent that the U.S. can participate in this recovery. – Dean ForemanThe U.S. is no longer an exporter of oil, the U.S. is once again a net-importer of oil.In 2020 [The United States] was a net-exporter of between $15 and $16 billion dollars. We have gone from imports of $300 to $400 billion dollars a year to exports of $15 to $16 billion and potentially is the U.S. energy revolution remains intact the ability to grow that. – Dean ForemanA recent report has stated that the United States could be heading for an oil shortage in 2022. Grayson asks Dean about this report and what the potential impact will be on the economy and the average consumer. Dean explains how this could lead to higher costs for transportation and the shipment of goods.With a potential oil shortage, Grayson asks Prentiss what it will mean for U.S. consumers and their driving habits. Looking back in history, Prentiss discusses how U.S. drivers changed their driving habits to save money and why consumers may opt for hybrid vehicles if this scenario happens.Hybrids definitely provide economic ways to achieve higher fuel economy. – Dean ForemanAs society starts to shift to electric vehicles, Grayson asks Dean about the economics and the potential impact policy will have on cost increases for consumers.By having an EV mandate built into the economy will impact the amount of vehicles that are available for the secondary market to purchase. That ends up having an additional cost and EVs are $10 to $15 thousand dollars more compared to an equal-sized vehicle. – Prentiss SearlesStaying on the theme of policy, Grayson asks Dean about a Tampa, Florida Council Member who proposed banning fossil fuels and any new fossil fuel infrastructure in the city of Tampa by 2030. Dean who is originally from Tampa, explains what the negative impact would be on Florida's economy.This would be one way to really grid Florida's economy to a halt. – Dean ForemanThe natural gas and petroleum industry supports more than 10 million jobs in the United States. The average salary in the industry is $50,000 above the nationwide average.Shifting the conversation back to passenger cars, Grayson asks Prentiss what would the current state of the electric vehicle market look like if there were no subsidies? Prentiss explains that there would still be a market for electric vehicles, but the market would not be as large as it is today. He cites Georgia as an example, when the electric vehicle tax credit was removed, EV sales plunged by 90% in the State.Referencing an article in the Wall Street Journal about how automakers are trying to increase sales of electric vehicles by demanding higher taxes on conventional vehicles that burn gas and diesel fuel, Grayson asks Dean when do shareholders raise the economic concerns of this strategy.The conversation flows into a discussion about free markets and when do market-based economics return instead of markets being driven by policy.Consumers are ultimately going to be the ones who have to choose. Affordability is going to rule. We have to have an embedded faith that consumer preferences will ultimately speak and that this will play out. – Dean ForemanLooking at the passenger vehicle market, Prentiss shares his thoughts on free markets and consumer choice of vehicles. Consumers will end up choosing vehicles that meet their needs.Regardless of how quickly EVs take off as a percentage of sales, in 20 years, the majority of vehicles are still going to remain internal combustion vehicles. – Prentiss SearlesExpanding upon consumer choice, Prentiss discusses the best ways to reduce carbon emissions of vehicles without having a negative economic impact. As more electric vehicles come online with charging infrastructure, Dean discusses what the potential economic impact will be on the petroleum market.Wrapping up the conversation, Dean and Prentiss discuss the future of the petroleum industry.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.

Top official says asking China to do more on climate is "not very realistic"https://www.axios.com/china-climate-change-226c9e50-243e-44e6-a4bf-e1fb1522bb19.htmlDo we want to partner with China on how they regulate things at all?China probably won’t institute what we can China to do on climate change?China commits to peak emissions by 2030, which is totally unrealistic unless they totally stop manufacturing steel.What about border adjustments for climate taxesIndia may build new coal plants due to low cost despite climate changehttps://www.reuters.com/world/india/exclusive-india-may-build-new-coal-plants-due-low-cost-despite-climate-change-2021-04-18/75% of India’s annual power output comes from coalIn 2019 and 2020 coal’s contribution to electricity actually fell, but this trend doesn’t seem to be continuing.Earthquake in southern Iran disrupts oil production: state mediahttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/natural-gas/041821-earthquake-in-southern-iran-disrupts-oil-production-state-mediaIran is now exporting over 1.5 million bpd of oil anyway, and they only want to get up to 2.3 million bpdCould this earthquake impact that? Perhaps. What about the Vienna talks?For more on Iranian oil situation, read: https://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-lifting-sanctions-on-iran-might-have-unexpected-repurcussions-200573196Historic oil glut amassed during the pandemic is almost gonehttps://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/4/16/historic-oil-glut-amassed-during-the-pandemic-is-almost-goneIs potential risk baked in?Does this mean the price is over-inflated now?Dr. Dean Foreman and API Monthly Statistical Report- economic recovery driving demand NOT just seasonality- especially rural gasoline demand picked up- but rig activity hasn’t picked up nearly enough to EIA production estimate by the end of this year. EIA saying 900,000 bpd increase but not happening yet.- What are the issues: lack of personnel, budgets already set, capital isn’t there- Jet fuel: more cargo going by air than before but still lower due to lack of people traveling. But supply of jet fuel has gone way down to only 4% of a barrel of oil. Jet fuel has been converted. - petrochemicals are still leading because demand for personal plastics and PPE is continuing. Still high. Usually its 25-27%, but now its up to 30% - Propane also had a winter element to it- Propane demand picked up over the winter but it’s ALSO a contributor to propalyne which is used to make medical plastics. Will it normalize? - Propane distribution has been disrupted a big. - Are we really back down to “normal” inventory? Well, it can be sketchy. API data says we’re still a little high on crude oil, especially with refining disruptions.- We’re not back up to 85% refinery utilization which is really good.- From a 5 year range perspective, US petroleum deliveries are at the top of the 5 year range, which is a very bullish sign. But weekly data have a lot of variation in them.- Market could remain slightly short but as OPEC puts more barrels back on the market will cap prices. But resumption in US supply of 900,000 bpd by end of year is baked into this and might not happen. Will be lucky to meet half that, and if you don’t get 900,000 bpd, opens door for OPEC but also for higher prices given growth in world economy.- Investment isn’t in place to meet demand next year.- Breakeven estimates for Bakken and Denver have risen from $60 to $80 per barrel making them un-producable. State regulation and also impact of DAPL potentially being taken offline.- Biden admin policies are “quietly tectonic”- Tax provisions in infrastructure bill would put upward pressure on consumer gasoline prices.- Sandwich of federal and state regulations could push prices up.

Biden’s ‘BackDoor’ Climate Planhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/bidens-backdoor-climate-plan-11616020338?-Can the EPA force states to regulate C02 regulations under current ozone laws?-It is possible and this is something the EPA may be working toward if Biden Admin climate legislation doesn’t work-And what about federalism?Oil Investors Hunt for Cash Gushershttps://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-investors-hunt-for-cash-gushers-11616151615-Where the Saudis right?-Why isn’t Texas producing more? Banks aren’t interested in lending to frackers when Saudis could change their mind about production any month?Saudi Aramco to prioritise China for next 50 yearshttps://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2198029-saudi-aramco-to-prioritise-china-for-next-50-yearsColumn: China’s five-year plan focuses on energy securityhttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-column-china-energy-kemp/column-chinas-five-year-plan-focuses-on-energy-security-kemp-idUSKBN2BB1Y1-China says it wants carbon neutrality by 2060, peak carbon emissions 2030-COuld China unpeg oil from the dollar?Interview with API Chief Economist, Dr. Dean ForemanHow are we doing a year later? Rebounding?- pretty remarkable rebounding- Both in January and February oil demand is within 1.2% and 2% of where it was a year ago- Baker Hughes rig counts aren’t coming up despite the fact that we had $65 WTI. Will take more for the industry to come back.- Global oil demand recovery in 2021 and 2022 could become the largest 2 year increase on record since 1950.- Need to have a lot more investment into capex and drilling activity in US. - US LNG exports have increased to Europe, but with Nordstream 2 coming online soon, will this hurt US LNG exports? Demand is so strong there’s room for both!- Europe will probably get a better deal out of this, but US cost effectiveness is good.- More agreements for LNG- US liquid fuel consumption could return to 2019 levels but he second half of 2021- Passenger traffic is down by over 50% year on year but flights are only down 13%. Still substantial decline in jet fuel use.- Refinery utilization in Feb dropped to 56% (lowest point ever seen) at one point due to Texas Freeze.- Inventory build aren’t actually that bad because we do have demand and it should normalize. Lingering impacts in data through March but then should be fully normalizing.- Have stimulus checks impacted demand?

thewarroomnewsletter.comBay Area Cities Go to War Over Gas Stoves in Homes and Restaurants https://www.usnews.com/news/cities/articles/2021-02-10/bay-area-cities-go-to-war-over-gas-stoves-in-homes-and-restaurants- when the power goes out, gas powered stoves, fireplaces, etc. can be very helpful for cooking, etc. when electricity is out.- people who think gas is bad refuse to hear any other perspectiveAfter Texas Crisis, Biden’s Climate Plan Hangs on Fragile Power Gridhttps://news.yahoo.com/texas-crisis-biden-climate-plan-100003694.html- Of all the people/things to blame for Texas power crisis, Biden certainly isn’t.- Is wind power to blame? Should Texas have paid to winterize its wind turbines? - What’s the responsibility of the power company to provide power to residents? Or is it a disaster preparedness issue?- More nuclear needed?Discussion of API Monthly Statistical Report- demand, despite fuel switching is very close to where it was pre-Covid- How do we balance inflation with oil prices?- Global demand is exceeding supply, inventories drawing down, investment isn’t at what it needs to be to even replace what is being used.- Question of when not if supply is short. Investment pace will impact prices- Every is typically 6.5% of a household’s expenses. Over last decade energy went down, but now its going up. Biden proposals could raise energy cost and could also raise housing and vehicle costs, especially for lower-income households.- What are we using all of the petrochemicals for? Naphtha, gas oil, propane —> winter and single use plastics. 33.1% of total US petroleum demand. Also exports. Potentially a permanent shift.- Demand in first half of February was up a lot, up 5.5% year on year in US for first half of February. But second half of February will look different because of disruptions. - Home prices are up, used vehicle prices are rising too.- Production trends continue to “defy gravity.” + or minus 11 million barrels of oil a day which is huge considering how much drilling is down. Decreases in global drilling as well. How fast do you eat through OPEC + Russia’s ability to put barrels back on the market? Between 8 and 9 barrels, but that’s demand growth alone over the next two years.- Gasoline prices? Chance of upward pressure and if you overlay Biden admin official policies on top of that we could see national average of gasoline price going up to $3/gallon.- 4Q capex spending for oil companies is only marginally more than it was in Q3. Notion that continued output growth will continue without investment is just not going happen.

Debanking Hurts Everyonehttps://www.barrons.com/articles/debanking-hurts-everyone-51610145010Saudi cut to boost oil market de-stocking, even as demand faltershttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-oil-inventories-graphic/saudi-cut-to-boost-oil-market-de-stocking-even-as-demand-falters-idUSKBN29F06DMajor OPEC Producers, Cued by Saudis, Raise Asia Crude Pricinghttps://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/iraq-raises-crude-pricing-asia-145210101.htmlhttps://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlookJapan power generators facing LNG shortage amid supply crunch, cold weatherhttps://energy.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/power/japan-power-generators-facing-lng-shortage-amid-supply-crunch-cold-weather/80153824

Today on the Energy Expert Network, Michael Tanner sits down with Dr. Foreman (Chief Economist at API) to dicuss all things oil markets! Check out all our other EEN interviews here: https://www.oilandgas360.com/eenfp/the-energy-expert-network-content-slplp/

Planet FWD debuts carbon-neutral snackshttps://www.axios.com/planet-fwd-carbon-neutral-snacks-f4c6ef3a-c5fe-45d5-925f-055a6b221d62.html- fully carbon neutral manufacturing process- Ellen is making “low-carbon” crackers and she would like to pursue seed funding for her venture. PS: low-carbohydrate versions coming soon.OPEC cuts forecast for 2021 growth in oil demandhttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-cuts-forecast-for-2021-growth-in-oil-demand-2020-12-14- This comes after OPEC decides to raise production 500,000 bpd in January Iran Sends Ship to Load Venezuela Oil in Defiance of Sanctionshttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/iran-sends-ship-load-venezuela-172517460.html- how long would it take for Venezuela to restore oil production?Conversation with Dr. Dean Foreman of API on Monthly Statistical Report- Oil demand in November returned to within the 5 year range- Gasoline month on month went down despite holiday travel.- Usually see season decrease in driving between Oct and Nov but this decrease was larger- Overall demand rose from diesel and distillates because of transportation and industry. Also jet fuel picked up. - Air travel traffic picked up.- Other oils: naphtha and gas oils that are used in petrochemicals picked up. Usually 25% of demand in Nov it was up to 30%. Increased petrochemical demand and throughput with it.- Growth in petrochemical industry in US that we didn’t have 20 years ago.- Rig count: what is it telling us? Rig count doesn’t look like its high enough to sustain oil production BUT productivity is way up and production has been up. People are drilling their very best rigs with the most productive rigs and equipment.- Ability to spool back up in Permian Basin and other places. Productivity won’t be as high though, when it returns. But many processes put in place to increase productivity will remain in place.- Refiners are able to respond to changes in demand conditions. The economy and oil demand go hand in hand. If economy continues to recover, then refiners that can supply the product will increase.- lowest imports of products+crude in 30 years and lowest crude imports from OPEC. Seen increase in domestic refineries using light, sweet crude oil and adapting to the environment they are given. Narrower international vs. domestic crude oil (Brent vs. WTI) differential.- Record pipeline gas going to Mexico right now.

https://shor.by/WarRoom14DayFreeTrialChina economy continues strong growth trajectory in October, but imbalances remainhttps://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3109967/china-economy-continues-strong-growth-trajectory-october- Retail sales continued to lag industrial output, with consumers remaining cautious in their spending in the world’s most populous nation, will the US suffer similar retail issues? - China isn’t all back economically. Just because industry looks strong, consumer economy hasn’t recovered.- Will U.S. and Beijing renegotiate the phase 1 trade deal.https://www.api.org/products-and-services/statistics/apis-economic-industry-outlookOil jumps 4% on latest COVID-19 vaccine progresshttps://www.reuters.com/article/global-oil-int/oil-moves-higher-on-latest-covid-19-vaccine-progress-idUSKBN27W0DQ- Oil prices are higher, have they broken out of the $40 range?- Ryan on the record says WTI will fall to below $35 before January 1- Rig count is rising but is it enough to maintain US oil production? 25% of the rigs are needed to maintain production.OPEC+ meeting ends with broad support for extension to oil cuts -sourceshttps://uk.reuters.com/article/oil-opec/opec-meeting-ends-with-broad-support-for-extension-to-oil-cuts-sources-idUKL9N2D0017- JTC meeting on Monday, JMMC meeting on Tuesday- What about Libya?Oil Prices Rise On Vaccine Fantasy But Fundamental Reality Less Stablehttps://www.investing.com/analysis/oil-prices-vs-reality-200544399Mounting piracy off Gulf of Guinea unsettles tanker ownershttps://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/111620-mounting-piracy-off-gulf-of-guinea-unsettles-tanker-owners- Piracy has increased 40% in 2020 on key oil transit routes- focused on refined products more than crude oil- siphoning oil and selling it on the black market.- piracy stories mostly came from east side of Africa, now on West side.Interview with Dr. Dean Foreman on API monthly statistical report- 18.8 million bpd demand in October- last week, was over 20 million bpd- In the past it was 80% motor gasoline, but now seeing 10% pick up in jet fuel and also increases in diesel- 1/4 gasoline demand in US is petrochemical. Performed strongly for October- As inventories are drawing down there is a demand for products- Supply side - we have a very low rig count in both oil and natural gas. US crude oil production basically hold steady, natural gas liquids high and natural gas production high.- It’s not going to take 1000 rigs to maintain this production. Productivity is really good.- We are in good shape to participate in economic recovery, when it comes.- Lowest crude oil imports since 1990 last month!- Numbers indicate a continuing recovery in place.- lower drilling activity will eventually catch up despite higher productively. Not all of the productivity gains will stick, given what we’ve seen before.- China has been so far behind in compliance with trade deal. LNG likely would have happened anyway regardless of deal. - demand from an external source doesn’t necessarily drive domestic natural gas prices up- How much can we export before it impacts domestic prices? Appears we aren’t close to it. EIA thinks we’ll go up above $3 for natural gas but its still impacted by seasonality.- As long as the international market for natural gas is healthy, that net back margin is there to be able to export North American natural gas at $3.- Growing market that is continuing to grow.

API chief economist Dr. R. Dean Foreman talks about the US becoming the number one crude oil exporter and the effects on the economy, global leadership, and American society. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices