Axis of Reason

This week, the mental gymnastics rational Republicans undertake in defending President Trump's conduct with Ukraine. Plus, why recent polling in swing states shows Trump is in a better position for reelection than a lot of people think.

Two decades after the Bill Clinton impeachment, Trump-supporting Republicans are defending against the same arguments they made in favor of impeaching Bill Clinton.

This week, we break down the impeachment madness and what's going on with Ukraine.

Former Deputy National Security Advisor for Combatting Terrorism Juan Zarate joins us to discuss the implications for U.S. national security if Iran is responsible for the recent drone attack on Saudi Arabia's oil infrastructure. Juan is currently chairman and co-founder of the Financial Integrity Network, a consultancy advising clients on sanctions and anti-money-laundering compliance.

It's not only the Democrats that are vying to run against President Trump. At least two Republicans have thrown their hat into the ring to challenge him. But, do they have a chance?

The U.S. economy is entering the longest expansion in U.S. history. But, it could be getting long in the tooth. The economic turmoil and relentless uncertainty of Trump’s mercurial trade policies are making businesses more reluctant to expand. The New York Times' Neil Irwin joins us to talk about whether this all adds up to a recession on the horizon. How the Recession of 2020 Could Happen https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/17/upshot/how-the-recession-of-2020-could-happen.html Neils new book, How to Win, is available here: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07J4RSKYZ?pf_rd_p=183f5289-9dc0-416f-942e-e8f213ef368b&pf_rd_r=F1QFSJVXFZV0AE9W0P7D

Jeffrey Epstein has long been a political hot potato. His relationships with powerful political figures, including Donald Trump and Bill Clinton, has long fed partisan conspiracy theories. Both sides are certain the other was mixed up in his crimes. Epstein's death this weekend had the fringes of the right convinced that the Clinton's were behind it. To a lesser extent the left made the same sort of accusations about Trump. How the toxicity of Jeffrey Epstein's and his connections with politicians made his death a fertile battlefield for partisan nonsense. Plus, the Trump Administration announced a partial delay in the next round of China tariffs for some consumer products. We break down what it really means and why American consumers are likely to feel more pain from this next round of tariffs than they did the last.

In this week’s Axis of Reason, what the shootings in El Paso and Dayton say about our current political moment. Trump readies new tariffs on China and labels Beijing a currency manipulator. We discuss what it means and where this all is headed. (Episode 40)

As Congress strikes yet another deal to raise the debt ceiling (and spending), it's worth asking what is debt ceiling good for if all it does is give politicians an excuse to hold America's credit hostage for more spending? Journalist Kevin Carmichael, who has just written an excellent new column on the subject to discuss. Kevin Carmichael New budget deal doesn't fix the debt ceiling — the world's most inane attempt at fiscal restraint https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/new-budget-deal-doesn-t-fix-debt-ceiling-world-s-ncna1032581

This week, we talk with best-selling author James Rickards about his new book, Aftermath: Seven Secrets of Wealth Preservation in the Coming Chaos. Jim explains why he thinks the extraordinary steps central banks took to tame the great recession, an explosion in the national debt fueled by spending-addicted politicians, and general political dysfunction have put the global economy on a collision course with calamity. Aftermath will be released on July 23rd, but is available now for pre-order from Amazon and other booksellers. GET THE BOOK: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0735216959?tag=randohouseinc7986-20&author-follow=B0058M3XL8&

Jeffrey Epstein collected big name friends, among them, a former President and the current one. What links did Bill Clinton and Donald Trump have to the globetrotting money manager indicted on charges of sex trafficking? Plus, we discuss reporter Michael Isakoff's fascinating investigation into the Russian origins of the Seth Rich conspiracy theory and an unexpected twist in DoJ inspector general Michael Horowitz's investigation into the origins of the Russia investigation.

Democratic Strategist Adrienne Elrod joins us to discuss the state of the Democratic field after last week's debates.

President Trump is unique among Presidents. His brash, unconventional governing style thrills his fans as much as it frustrates long-time Washington insiders. Nowhere is this more evident than in Trump's decision to pull out of the Iran deal. Now, as tensions with Iran rise with a better deal nowhere in sight, the consequences of Trump's governing by gut instinct are coming into sharper focus. This week, we ask: what are the long-term implications for the reality show playing out at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue? New York Times - Trump Imposes New Sanctions on Iran, Adding to Tensions https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/24/us/politics/iran-sanctions.html AEI/The Bulwark - How to lose friends and alienate allies https://www.aei.org/publication/lose-friends-alienate-allies/

A tide of economic populism is sweeping over the left and the right. While populism sounds good in theory, in practice it could have unintended adverse consequences for the nation's economy.

President Trump dines with the Queen and ratchets up threats of a trade war with Mexico.

As President Trump wraps up his trip to Japan, we discuss the latest developments in North Korea and Iran as well as Trump's latest attacks on Democratic Presidential front-runner Joe Biden and why Trump is trying to put criminal justice reform at the center of the debate.

The Impeachment Battle House Democratic Leaders are now grappling with calls for impeachment, not only their parties unruly left wing, but increasingly from more moderate Democrats. This newest category of pro-impeachments Democrats see opening an impeachment inquiry as a necessary tool to strengthen their hand in efforts to force Trump to turn over documents and compel witnesses to appear.

Attorney General William Barr taps Connecticut U.S. Attorney John Durham to review the FBI's handling of the Russia investigation. Plus, Trump's trade war with China heats up.

Political strategist Lauren Zelt joins Tyler and Taylor to discuss Attorney General Bill Barr's appearance on Capital Hill and Joe Biden's entrance into the 2020 field.

This week on Axis of Reason: the right goes bizerk over "Easter Worshippers"; Trump goes bizerk over the Mueller report; and, Bernie sparks a debate over voting rights for felons. Follow us on Twitter: @TylerCralle and @TGriffinNC

The Mueller Report is in the books. Nicholas Grossman, international relations professor at the University of Illinois and editor at Arc Digital, joins Taylor to sort through what we learned.

What to expect on the eve of the Mueller report. Bernie Sanders and the Democratic field. And, how Trump keeps his supporters with him by "owning the libs."

The Mueller report is done and now President Donald Trump is calling for an investigation of the "oranges" (aka origins) of the investigation. We debate whether he has a point.

This week: President Trump brawls with George Conway on Twitter; Devin Nunes sues a cow; and, Elizabeth Warren reignites the debate over the electoral college.

This week, several of our perennial topics of discussion on Axis of Reason were in the news. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez created a stir (again); President Trump faces a rebuke from Congress over his emergency declaration; and, as Special Counsel Robert Mueller nears the end of the Russia probe, we discuss what happens next. LINKS Ocasio-Cortez asks Wells Fargo CEO why the bank finances the ‘caging of children’ (Washington Post) https://wapo.st/2Hkbj43 Senate on cusp of passing rebuke to Trump on national emergency declaration (Washington Post) https://wapo.st/2VYUAXg The Incredible Shrinking Trump Presidency (Roughly Explained) http://bit.ly/2Hj4dNk Waiting in Vain for the Mueller Report (The Atlantic) http://bit.ly/2TAyldG

Two deficits -- trade and budget -- have dominated American politics. Two recent reports show that both have grown dramatically. On this week's episode, why the trade deficit probably matters less than people think and the budget deficit matters much more than politicians will admit. The Commerce Department reported on Tuesday that the goods trade deficit struck an all-time high of $891.3 billion in 2018. This in spite of President Trump's trade wars intended to narrow it. While Mr. Trump has fixated on the trade deficit, it is actually largely driven by factors other than the high tariff rates and "terrible" trade deals he laments. Meanwhile, the Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit has exploded so far this fiscal year, which began in October. The gap in government spending and revenues grew by 77% in the first four months of the 2019 fiscal year compared to $310 billion compared to $176 billion in the same period last year.

In a dramatic appearance on Capitol Hill Wednesday, President Trump's former personal lawyer, Michael Cohen, portrayed his former boss as a racist, a conman, a cheat, and a crook. He alleged that Mr. Trump committed a range of criminal act, including after he won the Presidency. The last time Mr. Cohen appeared before Congress, he lied about how long discussions about building a Trump Tower in Moscow continued. On May 6, Mr. Cohen begins a three year prison term, in part, due to those false statements. Mr. Cohen said he lied to cover for Mr. Trump. In his testimony, Mr. Cohen portrayed himself as a victim of misplaced loyalty seeking redemption. Should we believe him? And if so, what do the allegations he raised mean for Donald Trump? Plus, what should we should expect from President Trump's second summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

As the NC State Board of Elections prepared to decide his father's fate, Mark Harris' son took the stand to give dramatic testimony. Plus, we unpack President Trump's declaration of a national emergency. How will it fair in the courts? Follow us on Twitter: @tgriffinNC and @TylerCralle LINKS: The Election Fraud Allegations in North Carolina’s 9th Congressional District Explained https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/the-election-fraud-allegations-in-north-carolinas-9th-congressional-district-explained/ Can President Trump Declare a National Emergency and Build the Wall? https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2019/01/can-president-trump-declare-a-national-emergency-and-build-the-wall/

A "Green New Deal" and a border funding "old deal" are demonstrate the political peril of populist nonsense pretending to be policy. Find us on Twitter: Taylor - @tgriffinNC Tyler - @tylercralle

Ronald Reagan’s OMB Director, David Stockman joins us to talk about his new book, Peak Trump, which examines the serious challenges facing the economy and Washington’s failure to address them.

To the Democratic Party's left wing, the shutdown was a triumph. But, the ascendency of the left within the Democratic Party could have consequences that accrue to President Trump’s political benefit.

The saga of the Covington Catholic School boys has all the markers of our time — a viral video, a phony racial confrontation, and cries of fake news. And this time at least, the shouts of fake news had some merit. It came just days after the Special Counsel, in unprecedented fashion, disputed a Buzzfeed News bombshell that Trump instructed his personal attorney, Michael Cohen, to lie to Congress. What went wrong and what it says about our current political moment. Plus, why President Trump's offer to reopen the government was a non-starter with Democrats.

Nancy Pelosi’s suggestion that the State of the Union address be delayed until after the shutdown revives a long-simmering debate about whether the annual address, with all its pomp and pageantry, has become an overwrought symbol of the imperial modern presidency. Plus, a pair of back-to-back bombshell news stories feed the secret agent Trump narrative. A NY Times report that the FBI took the unprecedented step of opening a counterintelligence investigation in the wake of his firing of James Comey raises questions about whether the FBI stepped over the line. Meanwhile, the Washington Post revealed that President Trump worked to conceal records of his one-on-one conversations with Vladimir Putin. Why this might not necessarily be as bad as it first appears. Reading Material: - Charles C.W. Cooke: The State of the Union Is Inappropriate https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/state-union-inappropriate-charles-c-w-cooke/ - Jack Goldsmith: On What Grounds Can the FBI Investigate the President as a Counterintelligence Threat? https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-grounds-can-fbi-investigate-president-counterintelligence-threat

As the government shutdown drags into its third week, we look at the vast gulf between the politics and the reality of President Trump's border wall.

For the second year in a row, Washington is ringing in the new year with a dysfunctional government shutdown. With both President Trump and Democrats firmly entrenched in irreconcilable positions and hemmed in by uncompromising political bases, how does this end? Plus, Trump’s cracked history of Soviet involvement in Afghanistan and the fallout from Mitt Romney’s rebuke of President Trump.

In 2011, President Barack Obama pulled U.S. troops out of Iraq leaving ISIS to fill the vacuum. Taylor talks with foreign policy expert Danielle Pletka about why President Trump's surprise decision to pull U.S. troops out of Syria repeats those same mistakes. Plus, what the resignation of Secretary Jim Mattis means for U.S. national security policy. LINKS Barack Trump and the failure of leadership on Syria -- Danielle Pletka https://www.aei.org/publication/barack-trump-and-the-failure-of-leadership-on-syria/ Mattis Resignation Letter https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/read-defense-secretary-james-mattis-resignation-letter/ Follow Dani Pletka on Twitter: https://twitter.com/dpletka Follow Taylor Griffin on Twitter: https://twitter.com/tgriffinnc

In this week's episode, the last before Christmas, Taylor and Tyler "unwrap" Tuesday's wild sentencing hearing in the Michael Flynn case and why Judge Emmett Sullivan thought Michael Flynn deserved a lump of coal. Lawfare's Quinta Jurecic and Benjamin Wittes: "The Former National Security Advisor’s Sentencing Hearing: Flynncompetent Judging" https://www.lawfareblog.com/former-national-security-advisors-sentencing-hearing-flynncompetent-judging Mueller's Sentencing Memo https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/read-michael-flynns-sentencing-memo/ Flynn's Sentencing Memo https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5526132-Michael-Flynn-Defendant-s-Sentencing-Memo.html Mueller's Reply Memo and Documents https://talkingpointsmemo.com/muckraker/read-mueller-flynn-sentencing-memo Redacted FD-302 from Flynn FBI Interview https://www.lawfareblog.com/document-special-counsel-releases-flynn-302

Amid allegations of election fraud, why a new election in North Carolina’s Ninth Congressional District is looking increasingly likely. Meanwhile, in a testy televised tet-a-tet with Democratic leaders, President Trump owned the blame for a potential government shutdown over border wall funding. Why the move baffled political pros but thrilled his base. Finally, what the latest action in Special Counsel Robert Mueller‘s investigation tells us about where it‘s all heading.

The discussion continues on Trump and the economy with New York Times bestselling author Jim Rickards, who makes the case that Trump is on the right track with trade. But first, Taylor and Tyler break down the week’s news: the legacy of George HW Bush, the Democrats’ contentious leadership fight, and what to make of the latest turn of events in Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe, Michael Flynn’s sentencing memo. Links: Jim Rickards Bio https://speakerhub.com/speaker/james-rickards Jim Rickards Latest Book, The Road to Ruin https://www.amazon.com/Road-Ruin-Global-Elites-Financial/dp/1591848083/ref=tmm_hrd_swatch_0?_encoding=UTF8&qid=&sr= Jim Rickards on Twitter: @JamesGRickards https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards Taylor Griffin on Twitter: @tgriffinnc https://twitter.com/tgriffinnc Tyler Cralle on Twitter @tylercralle https://twitter.com/tylercralle Taylor's Website is RoughlyExplained.com https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/11/what-to-make-of-michael-cohens-newest-guilty-plea/ RoughlyExplained on Twitter: @roughlyexplain https://twitter.com/roughlyexplain What to Make of Michael Flynn's Sentencing Memo -- Roughly Explained https://www.roughlyexplained.com/2018/12/what-to-make-of-michael-flynns-sentencing-memo/

The US economy is performing strongly in 2018 as tax cuts fuel strong growth in consumer spending. But, headwinds from Trump’s trade wars and tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve threaten to sap the economic momentum. This week, Trump threatened to punish GM for idling plants and laying off workers. But, can he do that? Should he? And are Trump’s trade policies to blame for GM’s decision? Plus, how Trump's experience in real estate might be distorting his view of how the economy works.

Gains for Democrats in the midterm election put Trumpism on the back foot. For Democrats, control of the House comes with the risk of overreach. What's changed since Trump was elected in 2016 and where do both parties go from here? Plus, the discovery of new North Korean missile test sites provides yet another reminder that, in spite of the Trump/Kim bromance, North Korea is as determined as ever to continue developing nuclear weapons.

This past week has seen a string of horrors. A massacre at the Tree of Life synagogue in Pittsburgh; the attempted mass assassination by pipe bomb of Trump critics; and, a pro-Trump activist‘s bizarre, ill-fated scheme to pay women to make phony sexual harassment allegations against Special Counsel Robert Mueller.  These all have one thing in common, they are all rooted in the warped reality of post-truth politics. In an imaginary world, in which George Soros masterminds migrant caravans and Democrats are the root of all evil, for a certain kind of lunatic, even horrific atrocities can be justified.

As the caravan approaches and pipe bombs are being sent through the mail crazies are seizing on both stories for their own political benefit and Michael Avenatti has a pretty bad week.

The Trump Administration has made Saudi Arabia the lynchpin of its Middle East strategy. Now, the alleged murder of Jamal Kashoggi, a Saudi journalist and columnist for the Washington Post, threatens to upend the relationship between the United States and a key Middle East ally. Taylor talks with former Time Magazine Senior Correspondent Adam Zagorin about what happened and what Kashoggi’s death means for the geopolitics of the Middle East.

UN Ambassador Nikki Haley is calling it quits and everyone wants to know who could replace her, why is Russia choosing to remain silent in the midterm, and the Kavanaugh fiasco has splintered the Never Trump movement by separating the principled conservatives and metropolitan Republicans is the Never Trump movement DOA?

The Kavanaugh nomination cotninues to suck all the oxygen out of the room in the news cycle as Senate Democrats continue to try and delay his confirmation despite the fact that Kavanaugh's accusers stories are begining to crack and The New York Times publishes a yuge expose on the secret of Donald Trump's success and despite major hype by most in the media it doesn't seem to have much of an impact with the average American