Podcast appearances and mentions of jim rickards

The Wise Wolf Gold & Crypto Show

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 17, 2025 45:53

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Cleveland's Amazing Cash Flow Opportunities' on Thursday 3/20. Keith discusses the potential elimination of property tax, highlighting its impact on home affordability, rent stability, population influx, and retiree financial relief. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis supports a constitutional amendment requiring 60% voter approval to abolish property tax. Hear about the broader economic implications, including the potential for increased sales tax and widened wealth inequality. GRE Coach, Naresh, analyzes the impact of federal layoffs on the DC housing market, predicting a decline in home values and increased private sector job opportunities. Both emphasize the importance of the BRRRR strategy for real estate investors. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/545 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, there's a proposal to eliminate the property tax. Is a Washington DC real estate crash upon us, then a terrific guest and I are talking about the future of interest rates in inflation. And finally, an event you won't want to miss all today on get rich education. Speaker 1 0:23 Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with get rich education podcast, sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Corey Coates 1:09 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You Keith, Keith Weinhold 1:25 welcome to GRE from Fort Carson, Colorado to Carson City, Nevada and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are in for another wealth building week at get rich education. I don't like to predict interest rates, because it's really hard to do. But it does get interesting today, because our guest says that he will with his tight read on the economy, this is a unique time, perhaps in my entire life, where we have more new policies shaping the economy and real estate. Then, anytime I can remember, policies are made by politicians, but we don't get into the politics here, rather the policies and how it affects you and her. Any of these policies spicier than this one from earlier this month. Be mindful that this voice is from a person that made his name as a real estate investor. Donald Trump 2:29 I also have a message tonight for the incredible people of Greenland. We strongly support your right to determine your own future, and if you choose, we welcome you into the United States of America. We need Greenland for national security and even international security, and we're working with everybody involved to try and get it. But we need it really for international world security. And I think we're going to get it one way or the other. We're going to get it. We will keep you safe. We will make you rich, and together, we will take Greenland to heights like you have never thought possible before. It's a very small population, but very, very large piece of land and very, very important. Keith Weinhold 3:17 Yes, the long time New York City Real Estate Investor there has gone well beyond Gotham now with plans to expand America's real estate empire, if you will. Is this imperialism or America First policy? Or is it abject comedy? I guess that it could be all three. I'll let you decide. Well, the federal policy shakeups like that, also what they seem to be doing are emboldening others, including at the state level, where Florida, interestingly, recently proposed eliminating the property tax, taking it to zero. What is property tax free? Real Estate coming to you as well. Let's look at the prospects for this and what the effects would be of eliminating the Property Tax with some things that you probably never thought about before, and yes, your mind might shoot ahead. You might anticipate saving 1000s in lost tax dollars every year, even saving over 10,000 bucks a year per single family home in high tax areas. And you know, property taxes, sharpest critics, they say you have got to get rid of this thing, because you basically just endlessly rent your house from the government, and the rent goes up every year, and so therefore it's like forever rent that you have to pay. What's even worse is that the. Amount of property tax you pay is based on your homes or your apartment buildings market value. Well, because the government prints so much money and creates inflation that pumps up all the housing values, many of which are fake, inflated gains, and then your property tax goes up based on this phantom gain. And we've really seen that over the last five years, both real gains and Phantom gains. And then, plus, of course, each full dollar that you earn from your work right now is already taxed, say, down to just 70 cents, is what you've got left over. Well, then your 70 cents is further whittled down by property tax and all the other taxes that you have to pay out of that currently, all 50 states have a property tax every one of them, and you might already know that property taxes, they're basically highest in really two main places. When we look at property tax as a percent of your income. Those places are Texas and the Northeast, where they're upwards of 4% even 5% in fact, it's more than 5% of your income every year that goes to property tax in the state of Maine, but it's 4% or more in a number of states. And of course, if you don't pay them every single year until you die, the government will repossess your home from you. And almost 5 million Americans lose their home every year, many of them to this tax foreclosure. And in the US, the property owner pays the property tax, of course, but effectively, renters do too, because as landlords, we pass it along to tenants. It's embedded in that market rent amount, all right. Well, can we end the property tax? Well, former presidential candidates like Ron Paul and Herman Cain have proposed it. They didn't get elected. Texas has discussed it a lot, but yeah, it's Florida that has newly and boldly proposed eliminating the property tax. And like falling dominoes, if this gets abolished in one state, it increases the chances that more will follow. And Florida is a big state, the third largest in population. Well, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came out and said this, taxing land and property is the more oppressive and ineffective form of taxation. That's what he said. Now let me tell you why he says that before we look at the chances that property tax will be eliminated, DeSantis says it's oppressive, because look see, you can personally dodge your income tax by making your paycheck smaller, although that might not be desirable, you sure could, and you can certainly avoid sales tax by consuming less, but see there is no escape from property tax. That's the oppression that's being referred to here. Let me tell you where we're at with eliminating the property tax, and then what the absolutely Titanic impacts of this would be DeSantis goes on to say, property taxes are local, not state. So we'd need to do a constitutional amendment which requires 60% of voters to approve it, to eliminate them, which DeSantis supports, even to reform or lower them. Right? But he goes on to say this, and here we go. We should put the boldest amendment on the ballot that has a chance of getting that 60% that's the end of the quote. Okay, so that's what it's going to take to eliminate property tax in Florida, where, if it happens, it could be a model for other states to follow, like we're seeing a little bit with the zero income tax states. All right, here's what I think would happen if they were eliminated. First home affordability would massively improve, skyrocketing property values. So many more people could afford the lowered monthly payment without property tax making prices soar, especially the values of lower price to median priced homes. They could really bring those into the affordability range, and they are the exact ones that make the best rental properties. What about rents? If property taxes went to zero, rents would stay stable. Landlords would do little or nothing to drop them. That's just how it works when people are already used to paying a certain price. Also population influx to the affected area. I mean that population influx that already works for states in attracting residents. That have zero state income tax, it would with property tax too. I mean that would clearly be desirable for people to own property tax free homes, especially in the beginning, before this settles in and those home prices soar. Also, retiree financial relief would take place. Those people on fixed incomes would really be helped. But you know what would not happen with governments slashed property tax revenue. They couldn't reduce their spending proportionally. I have no faith that they could. They would have to get their income from elsewhere and see shifting away from property tax over to beefing up your sales tax, that would hurt poor people the most. For example, in Florida's case, it's been studied, and they discovered they would have to increase their sales tax from the current 6% up to 12% to maintain the same services. Can you imagine 12% sales tax, and another effect of abolished property tax is that wealth inequality would widen because the property owners are the ones that benefit the most. So those are the big effects. But look, there are more problems eliminating property tax, that means the areas would need to find another way to pay for schools and roads and parks and local services like police and emergency responders. Maybe some of that stuff could be privatized. But if the tax, if that were just shifted away from local government and that went toward state and federal government, well, then local control would be lost. So that is a really undesirable side effect. But as a real estate investor, come on. The prospect of an abolished property tax that has got to excite you. I wouldn't count on it happening anytime soon, but now you know more about the prospects for it happening and what the impact would be with an elimination of property tax. coming up soon. Here on the GRE podcast, what the Bible says about money when Pastor John joins us, it's going to be a show unlike any we've ever done before, and maybe will ever do again. You might not be a Christian or religious at all, but this is still relevant to you, because the Bible is the top selling book in the history of the world, and it has an indelible influence on the people around you. The book the Bible, says some things that make you wonder if wealth accumulation is even virtuous. We're gonna face those verses head on and get pastor John's insights there. That's a really anticipated show. I'm also gonna ask him what other religions have to say about money. Also some well known guests down the road here on the show, including the get rich education debut of Laurel Langemeier and more. LAUREL she was known as the millionaire maker since back in the days when a million dollars was actually a lot of money. To be sure that you don't miss these upcoming episodes on your pie catching device, hit the Follow button right now while it's on your mind and you'll be all set. Let's meet with this week's guest. This week's guest is a familiar one, because he's on Team GRE, yeah, it's an in house chat with our super helpful investment coach. What he does is he helps you devise your big picture real estate strategy all the way down to connecting you with the exact right property addresses. He does that free at GRE marketplace business speaker Jim Rohn said, formal education will make you a living. Self education will make you a fortune. He's got both with an MBA from Duke. Then he worked at both banks and financial publishing companies before landing here at GRE in 2021 but importantly, for years now, he's been an active real estate investor, just like you and I are. Hey, a big welcome back to the show. Naresh Vista, Naresh Vissa 14:13 hey, thanks for that wonderful, wow, amazing introduction, and thanks for having me back on. It's been a few months. Keith Weinhold 14:20 Yeah, we haven't heard from you since October here. So what's going on in the real estate and economics world? From your vantage point, everyone's got a different slant on it based on what they see. Naresh Vissa 14:32 There's a lot happening. As you know, Keith and our listeners, I'm not sure if they're following, but we're seeing tremendous, tremendous changes in the financial markets in general, and the financial markets include the real estate markets, and the impact is going to be widespread for better or for worse, I think, for better over the long haul. So what I'm talking about right now is, for example, interest rates, mortgage rates, home value. Use inflation, those are all very important parts of the economy. And we have this new government department called Doge, the Department of government efficiency. And Doge has gone in. And I loved your newsletter where you talked about Doge a little bit, and the walk that I took, as you called it, the awkward walk with a box full of your stuff or something like that. The sure, because I've been fired before. Yep, yep, it's happened to me once too. I took the awkward walk with the box of of random stuff. Yeah, lots and lots of of layoffs are happening within the government. The private sector continues to lay off people as well, like it usually does, and this is a big deal. The reason why it's a big deal is because aggregate demand. I don't want to say it will be killed, but we're already seeing an impact on home values in places that are very dependent on government workers, places like Washington, DC, Virginia, Maryland, there's actually a 10% year on year decline in home values in those areas. I don't know if you knew about that, Keith, but that's been the impact, and that's based off of the February statistics, the February numbers. So we've seen a decline, and that decline will likely spread to other areas that are dependent on federal workers, or where federal workers make up a good chunk of the local economy. I bring this up because we have providers in Maryland who we work with, who GRE has worked with for three or four years now, and they're seeing somewhat of a decline in the area as well. Because just you don't have to work in DC to be a federal worker. You can work in a major city like Baltimore or in a suburb in between Baltimore and BC. So we're seeing somewhat of a decline in our investors have all of a sudden gotten interested in investment property in the Maryland area because they knew, hey, we know GRE works in the Baltimore operates in the Baltimore area, and just want to scope out some homes. So previously, two years ago, three years ago, when list price was not negotiable. Now all of a sudden, the sellers are open to offers when there was no budging on offers three years ago. So I bring this up because the Department of government efficiency, I believe, to my knowledge, we're up to six figures. More than 100,000 workers have either been laid off or taken the buyout package, so we're somewhere in the six figures of people who got that now, they do have eight months severance. But with that being said, you would think that most humans, they'll immediately start looking for the next job. They're not gonna just enjoy for eight months and then scramble to find that next job. So this is having a widespread impact on housing, home values on it's going to have an impact on interest rates. We're seeing that interest rates are coming down, and if there's any sign, which I don't think there is, but if there's any sign of a recession, if there's any sign of bleeding, then the Fed is going to start cutting interest rates again. So I think we saw peak interest rates a few months ago, those interest rate values, those mortgage rates, aren't going to be going back up anytime soon. We know that almost it's almost a fact that we know that, because the Fed is not going to be raising rates, the most punishing thing they can do is just keep rates steady for a long period of time. But I didn't anticipate that later this year, they're going to start cutting again because of these widespread mass layoffs. Keith Weinhold 18:32 And of course, Washington, DC is essentially ground zero for these federal layoffs. Federal jobs account for about 25% of DC jobs. You the listener, probably find it to be no surprise that that is the highest in the nation. But of course, this can also affect private companies, those private companies that have federal government contracts as well, and Naresh, before we open it up to the nation, we just think about DC. Do we have any idea of what properties are going to be hurt the most? A lot of times you might think of that in the case of what is the income range of these federal employees that are being laid off now, a lot of them are probationary employees, meaning that they're in their first year of employment. Naresh Vissa 19:19 Well, it's a huge mix keep. That's a really good question, because I think a broker, like a real estate broker who's trying to sell will try to beef up the price and say, Oh, this doesn't affect us, and this only affects very high income folks. Well, that's the fact of the matter. Is there, if you work for the federal government, you're not necessarily ultra high income or ultra high net worth, you get the perks, and you get perks of working a government civil servant Job while taking somewhat of a lower pay. So it's actually a mix, because you have people in the first two years of employment. So the youngsters. Now, those aren't your homeowners, though, the 2223 24 those. Just say the people in their mid 20s, they're not the homeowners, they're the renters. So you can expect them to leave. They'll probably if they can't find a job, which it's going to be much harder to find a job in that DC area, they may move to Philadelphia or New York or California or wherever they can find a job. They'll just get up and move and move, and that's one of the benefits. I did that when I was in my early and mid 20s, many times where I just packed up and moved. I was more than happy to do it. So they're not your homeowners, but the homeowners are going to be the people who are getting laid off. So there are mass layoffs happening right now, and those people are homeowners, and then the people who are taking the buyout packages very likely, because they're either approaching or at retirement age, and it remains to be seen whether those people it's like a retirement gift, like, Hey, this is a great party. You know, getting eight months of free pay. Like, that's pretty amazing and happy retirement. Or maybe folks were like, they didn't say for retirement all that much, and they were planning to work another 10 years. Those are the people who could be sellers. Bottom line is, when you have this amount of mass layoffs, and we're seeing it in the data, there are more homes for sale today in that DMV area. I By the way, I used to live there. I used to live in in Maryland, great. More homes for sale today than I believe in the lab, definitely over the last five years. And it could be even over the last 15 years, to my knowledge. Keith Weinhold 21:29 And for those that don't know DMV, that means Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, that area, yep. So Naresh Vissa 21:34 there are more homes for sale, and the home values actually are now. This is a crazy thing. The home values in on average are back at 2020 levels. So basically, the peak of 2020, is what the home values are at today. And just my prediction. I don't think it takes a genius to predict this, but the layoffs are just getting started. They're just scratching the surface, and they're going to continue, because this Doge is a an 18 month program or an 18 month project. It's supposed to, it was called the Manhattan Project of our time. So they're just scratching the surface. And I'd expect home values in those areas to continue to fall. And you're gonna see it's not immediate. It's not like there are mass layoffs one day and then home values fall the next month. A lot of these effects, we won't start seeing them where the DC area won't start seeing them. 678, months down the road, Keith Weinhold 22:27 Doge is more than just a meme coin. Now our own in house investment coach, Naresh Vissa and I are talking about the state of real estate today. More we come back, including nuracious thoughts on the future direction of inflation. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold you know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 6686 Hey, you can get your mortgage loans at the same place where I get mine, at Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than any provider in the entire nation because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start now while it's on your mind at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com Jim Rickards 24:34 this is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. Keith Weinhold 24:49 welcome back to get recidiation. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, it's an in house chat with our own GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. He's been talking about the fallout on DC area. Jobs with the regime shakeup that we had in the White House starting earlier this year. And Naresh, I know that you have some thoughts about what this can do to the future direction of inflation. Tell us about it. Naresh Vissa 25:12 Well, the first thing Keith is, if you look throughout history, or even your lifetime, what we saw from 2021 until today, really, because inflation is going up. I don't want to say it's going back up, but it is going up. We've seen an inflationary cycle that I've never seen in my lifetime. It's worse than any short term inflation cycle that this country has faced, at least in my lifetime. And I was born in the late 80s, let's just say 1990 and moving forward. So I bring that up because this is some pretty bad inflation that the world and that the United States has seen, and we don't need to get into all the details about how it happened or the mistakes that were made at the time when the Fed should have started raising rates, when the government should have stopped spending. That's all history. Moving forward, I'm actually very optimistic now that we've actually reached peak inflation. And when I say peak inflation, I mean during this micro cycle where inflation has gone back up from a 2.4% rate to a 3% rate. I think that's the highest we're going to get during this micro cycle. It did reach some I believe it was above 9% in 2022 yes, we're definitely not going to going to reach that. But 3% is still too high for the Federal Reserve. It's still too high for Americans. It's a major reason why Americans went to the voting boots and or the ballot boxes and made the decisions that they made because of inflation. It's the most important issue on most Americans minds. And I bring this up because I'm very optimistic that we've seen this 3% peak and that we're going to be going down moving forward because of the first half of this interview, the fact that all of a sudden, it is a sudden thing, because a lot of people weren't expecting this, I was, but a lot of people weren't expecting these mass government layoffs. And these mass government layoffs, they hit corporations. They hit private businesses. Anyone with a government contract is going to be hit anyone who was profiting off of waste, fraud, abuse, which you'll be surprised how many private and many times this is legal, like it's legal waste, it's legal abuse, and all of a sudden those checks are going to stop coming in, or the way of doing those business practices are going to stop because the government is clamping down on it. Why? Because it's taxpayer money, and taxpayers are upset. So the pullback or the elimination of waste, fraud, abuse, is definitely a good thing, but also the mass layoffs, we're going to see a decrease in aggregate demand. And when we see a decrease, I'll just say demand. I mean, that's more common, so we'll see a decline in demand. So when there's a decline in demand, what happens? Prices go down, and we're already seeing it. There's already proof of it. I already I brought up the housing market in the DMV area, and I can also tell you oil prices, for example, which is one of the main drivers of inflation, oil and gas energy prices one of the top three drivers, along with government spending. So you got mass layoffs, which will kill a lot of that aggregate demand, you have the oil, gas and energy, and then the reduction in government spending. So all that combined is going to lower inflation, going back to the energy prices, oil is down for really since the inauguration. That trend should continue, given the policy change, and that drives it drives inflation, it drives deflation, it drives pricing, because any good that you need, it's probably going to be transported with the use of energy the microphone you're using, Keith, how was it shipped? Maybe in a truck, and the truck is powered by fuel, or maybe something was sent in an airplane or in an actual ship. All that requires energy and fuel. So if you can lower energy costs, then we're going to see a continued decline in inflation, and energy costs continue to fall, continue to plummet. So I think this is good for inflation. Yes, it is. There is pain. We talked the first entire half of this episode on layoffs. Layoffs are they're painful. Taking that Walk of Shame is painful. There is going to be pain. But at the same time, remember, there are more than 10 million available private sector jobs, and we already have more than a million jobs that are opening up as a result of investment within the United States since January, 20 of this year. We have companies like Apple. We have Taiwan, semiconductor, Eli Lilly, the list goes on and on and on, of major corporations, big corporations, mid sized companies, who are opening up more operations within the United States. So the private sector jobs, which are really the innovative, long lasting jobs, they are growing there is just a tremendous. To opportunity, especially for young people. If I was young again, I wouldn't want to work for the government. I'd want to go work for one of these companies, where they're essentially going to be recruiting and begging youngsters to come work for them Keith Weinhold 30:12 to corroborate nourishes lower inflation expectations. Since the beginning of the year, we've had a fairly sharp decrease in bond yields now. GRE listeners know by now that mortgage rates somewhat move with Jerome Powell's federal funds rate, but they're more closely tied to bond yields, specifically the yield on the 10 year T note. Okay, so then what makes the 10 year go lower? Hence, mortgage rates along with them, that is lower inflation expectations in a slowing economy. And another reason that bond yields and hence mortgage rates with them, fall, is when people sell stocks and make a flight to safety into bonds, that pushes up bond prices and lowers bond yields. So again, those are two factors that move bond yields and, resultantly, mortgage rates. And that's what has been happening. Naresh Vissa 31:08 absolutely. And the important thing to remember something you touched on and what I talked about earlier, which is, yes, there is going to be a reduction in federal government and federal government jobs, and I think this is going to pass on to states as well. I think many states, in fact, I know that many states, even blue states, are taking a look at their books and saying, hey, you know what? We should be making cuts too. Because states, they operate on much tighter budgets, whereas the federal government, they basically have access to a printing press. State governments do not so the point that I'm making here is that, yes, it's painful. We're going through some pain right now. The DMV area is going through some pain. The stock market has gone through some pain. The Crypto markets have gone through some pain. Everyone's gone through some pain, but they say no pain, no gain, and the jobs are being transferred, as I brought up earlier, from the government sector to the private sector, and the private sector is where we can see tremendous, tremendous growth. Look at GRE for example, we're a private company, and we've seen tremendous growth, right? Tremendous growth in just innovation and and our services and our offerings. Now, imagine a bigger company that, and how much growth they can have. I think overall, I'm very optimistic and about inflation coming down, hitting that 2% target by the end of this year. In fact, I think it'll hit that 2% target a few months before the end of the year. And once we hit that target, then the Fed is going to start cutting rates again, and there's a chance that they may even start cutting rates before we hit that 2% target. I don't think they should. I thought they made a mistake doing that last year when they started cutting, when inflation hit 2.4% I think or two and a half percent, they started cutting again. I think the inflation rate has to hit actually 2% across the board, and then they can start with their gradual cutting. So if somebody asked today, hey, narration, which many do as, hey, how low do you think interest rates are going to go this year? My answer is not very low. This here, you'd have to have a cataclysmic Black Swan event, which it's called Black Swan because none of us can predict it, none of us can see it. So you'd have to have an event like that for the Fed to just basically slash rates overnight, which I don't see anytime soon. The other most popular question I've gotten this week is, are we going to go into a recession? You know, it seems like the world is falling apart and world war three and and stocks are tanking, and crypto is tanking, and this is tanking and that's tanking. This is when people told me a few weeks ago, actually. And my answer is, No, I don't think we're going to see a recession unless there's a black swan event. But I don't think so. And the reason is because of the tool that the Fed has. The Fed can cut, cut, cut. That's one of the Ben now, if we were at low interest rates, if we were at, let's say, historic low interest rates, and we were in this situation today, I would be very pessimistic and say it's not looking good. But any sign of a recession, the Fed is going to act at their next meeting. They won't even need to call an emergency meeting. They'll act at their next meeting, whenever that may be, they'll act and start cutting rates, and that's going to quickly stimulate the economy and get investors like our folks, because that's going to affect the bond yields, that's going to affect the mortgage rates, and investors are going to jump in to buy real estate, and people are going to jump in to buy discounts in the stock market, et cetera, et cetera. Keith Weinhold 34:44 To your point, thank goodness the Fed has some ammo. Since the federal funds rate is about 4% they do have some ammo, and they can cut that rate down. You can imagine if the Fed funds rate was zero, like it was a few years ago, and they couldn't make cuts because they don't want to. Make it negative. So Naresh and I here talking about a number of forces that are largely outside your control. So these are the sort of things you can keep your eye on. However, there is something you can do that's very much in your control, and it happens this Thursday, where you can join Naresh and a co host on our upcoming live event. Tell us about it, Naresh. Naresh Vissa 35:22 well, like you said, it's this Thursday, we're going to be talking about the BRRRR strategy, which has become the most popular real estate investment strategy. GRE has seen in its existence. Our investors are almost hooked onto this burst strategy. We're going to talk more about it on the webinar. Burr stands for buy, rehab, rent, refinance, repeat, and we'll get into all that in the webinar. It's a great way to build equity in a property very quickly, and to use that equity towards your down payment, so that you're not paying that standard, traditional 20 to 25% down. Some of our investors have done BRRRR's in markets like Tennessee, where they put zero down, or where they even made money on the if you want to call it the flip, so we're going to be talking about them. It's specifically geared towards we've done a burr event before on the Memphis, Tennessee market. This is a burr online event that covers the Cleveland, Ohio market, and that's a market that we have not touched on much here at get rich education, we've promoted some properties here and there. It's a really popular market, and it's a state that is growing and looking if someone were to ask me, Hey, Naresh what's the one state that you think can become the next Florida. And we've covered Florida here before. I live in Florida. Politics aside, Florida has boomed Since 2020. Or so. The number of how you can judge a state's growth is by its GDP numbers. And most importantly, are people moving there? That's the key. Are people moving there? And I would say Ohio is that next state where I think many people in the Midwest are going to say, hey, you know what, I want to go move there, because they're looking to make a lot of changes that are pro growth, that are pro real estate, including potentially eliminating the property tax, school choice programs there. That's huge for kids, universal school choice, and, most importantly, potentially eliminating the income tax now, these are all long term plans. It's not happening anytime soon, but those are the visions and the goals for Ohio, and I think they're going to happen by 2030 I would expect many of these plans and policies to happen. And what that means for real estate is it's going to boom because people are going to move to Ohio because of that, there aren't a lot of states that offer no income tax. So those are my thoughts on Ohio, and we're going to talk a little bit more about that on the webinar. Keith Weinhold 37:50 Many expect Vivek Ramaswami to be the next governor of Ohio. If that comes true, Vivek has a lot of the same pro business policies that Ron DeSantis does in Florida, for example, Ohio has a high population, a stable population, America's seventh largest population, and a slow growing one with a great diversity of industry there in Ohio and Cleveland. Naresh Vissa 38:15 So Keith, we have we're approaching record numbers of registrations for this event. We still have room for several more people. So I highly recommend people go to GRE webinars.com. That's GRE webinars.com. You can register for the event. It's going to be fun. All of our webinars recently have been a ton of fun. We've gotten great feedback, a lot of engagement. I think you'll learn a lot for sure. So I'm looking forward to seeing everybody there. Keith Weinhold 38:42 Your co host, Phil, was on last week's show with us, both you and Phil, we'll be talking about this burr live event in Cleveland. I really suggest you, the listener, attend live. You might get a better Property selection that way, and you'll surely be able to ask questions, and sometimes with the other participants, they ask a really good question that you had not even thought of previously. It's our live burr event for Cleveland cash flow properties. You the listener probably remember when Phil was here last week, we gave an example of where you can get eight to one leverage and up to $500 cash flow on a single family home in Cleveland. I really recommend that you attend, and you'll be hearing more from the race, then you can sign up at GRE webinars.com We'll see if we break that record of, I think, 538 registrants last webinar that we had late last year. Do you have any last thoughts about the event? Naresh, Naresh Vissa 39:41 like I said, before our events have it's free to attend. That's the first thing. You don't need to pay us anything. But we sell out these events. So I highly recommend that people go once again to GRE webinars.com. We can only hold a certain number of people. It's a few 100 people. So we want to sell out again. We hope you can. Join us and you will not regret I think you're gonna really like the Cleveland market. We're gonna talk more about that, the Ohio market in general. And I think folks are really, really gonna like this strategy. I know a lot of you have invested in Burt, in other markets, or have been researching Burr and you really like what you hear this is the market. I think that you should pay really, really close attention to our team is really strong there. Phil's team, really strong, very honest. They're quick, they're reliable. So if you've had a bad experience doing a burr elsewhere, I think you'll have a better experience with our team over here. Keith Weinhold 40:35 We'd call it a sellout crowd, but you don't have to pay anything. We'd call it a standing room only crowd, but you don't have to stand up. You can sit down and enjoy it from the comfort of your own home this Thursday at 8pm eastern at GRE webinars.com. Thanks for coming on to the show. Naresh, Naresh Vissa 40:51 thanks a lot, Keith. Keith Weinhold 40:57 Yeah, strong insights from our own new race today, inflation expectations cut back and forth like a knife with big policy decisions on layoffs and tariffs and more tariffs on lumber and gypsum board. I mean, they are two of the major inputs that can increase the cost of homes. Gypsum board just means drywall tariffs, slow trade, less fuel is used to ship things like we touched on. And a lot of people ask, well, doesn't an economic slowdown mean lower prices, but yet don't tariffs raise prices? Well, you got to take on that from Naresh today. Now, sometimes I am asked, where is the real opportunity in today's real estate market? I've been a guest on other business shows lately, and I've been asked that question, where's the opportunity in today's real estate market? And I've got two answers. If you have more money and less time. Go with new build properties, because builders are still awarding you with massive rate buy downs, often to near a 5% mortgage rate. They are buying it down for you, but instead, if you have less money and more time, because you have to wait a few months for a rehab, then go with the burr strategy. That is the other opportunity. It's going to give you a higher return than new build in most cases, because what you get is in improbably high leverage along with strong cash flow. And those are two notions that typically don't go together. Well, on Thursday, we're bringing that to you with our live event. I mean, is there a more seasoned pro with the burr strategy in the entire nation than one co host for the event? Phil and then the mind spring of knowledge and ideas from Naresh as the other co host, and they're both active investors themselves, bringing you the opportunity in Cleveland in just a few days. And of the hundreds of registrants, not all of them attend live, but do attend live. If you can give yourself an advantage, you can be connected with available properties conducive to the burr strategy. If you're interested, or maybe you're just more interested in how it all works one last time it is GRE 's live event for Cleveland's amazing cash flow opportunities this coming Thursday, the 20th at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific, healthy real world monthly rents that are more than 1% of the purchase price single family properties, many for under 100k in investor sweet spots. It's free to attend. It's from the comfort of your own home. Registration is still open at GRE webinars.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 2 44:04 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host, is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold 44:28 You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours. Myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE to 668666. The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

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Interview - Trump's Shocking Bitcoin Reserve Twist

Play Episode Listen Later Mar 7, 2025 49:06 Transcription Available

The inclusion of ADA, SOL, and XRP alongside Bitcoin in Trump's proposed strategic reserve has sent shockwaves through cryptocurrency markets and raised alarming questions about the true intentions behind this initiative. Tony Arterburn of Wise Wolf Gold breaks down why this dramatic shift contradicts the original vision outlined in Nashville last summer."If you wanted to tank the idea of a Bitcoin strategic reserve, this is the way to do it," Arterburn states, highlighting the fundamental differences between decentralized Bitcoin and these corporate-controlled alternatives. While Bitcoin remains trustless and permission-less, the newly included cryptocurrencies all lead back to companies, boards of directors, and venture capital firms – with Ripple still controlling approximately 80% of all XRP tokens.The conversation explores a troubling possibility: this initiative may represent a stealthy approach to establishing a government-controlled digital currency system through public-private partnerships. Despite promises that "there will never be a CBDC as long as I'm president," the focus on transaction-oriented cryptocurrencies suggests otherwise. As Arbin notes, "This has nothing to do with the strategic reserve. This is a hijacking of technology."Meanwhile, physical precious metals continue showing strength amid the uncertainty. Central banks ordered approximately 1,048 tons of gold last year, continuing a multi-year trend of significant acquisitions, while the silver market faces a 215 million ounce deficit. These developments, coupled with Jim Rickards' revelation that Federal Reserve gold certificates from 1934 may claim more gold than the U.S. officially holds, paint a concerning picture of our financial foundation.For listeners concerned about preserving wealth in these uncertain times, Arterburn offers practical solutions through Wise Wolf Gold, including innovative Bitcoin services with no fees when converting to precious metals. The message becomes clear: in a world of institutional distrust and chaotic policies, physical assets remain the most reliable store of value.

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Wealthion's Best Of 2024: Jim Rickards

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 25, 2024 14:43

As we wrap up the year and celebrate the festive season, we wanted to share some of our favorite moments from one of your favorite Wealthion interviews from 2024: Jim Rickards with James Connor. Enjoy! All the best for a happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year! Investment Concerns? Get a free portfolio review with Wealthion's endorsed financial advisors at https://bit.ly/405Bcfc Original interview: https://youtu.be/0Okuu_ynEgk Connect with us online: Website: https://www.wealthion.com X: https://www.x.com/wealthion Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/wealthionofficial/ LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/wealthion/ #Wealthion #Wealth #Finance #biden #trump #2024elections #Ukraine #Russia #Geopolitics ____________________________________ IMPORTANT NOTE: The information, opinions, and insights expressed by our guests do not necessarily reflect the views of Wealthion. They are intended to provide a diverse perspective on the economy, investing, and other relevant topics to enrich your understanding of these complex fields. While we value and appreciate the insights shared by our esteemed guests, they are to be viewed as personal opinions and not as investment advice or recommendations from Wealthion. These opinions should not replace your own due diligence or the advice of a professional financial advisor. We strongly encourage all of our audience members to seek out the guidance of a financial advisor who can provide advice based on your individual circumstances and financial goals. Wealthion has a distinguished network of advisors who are available to guide you on your financial journey. However, should you choose to seek guidance elsewhere, we respect and support your decision to do so. The world of finance and investment is intricate and diverse. It's our mission at Wealthion to provide you with a variety of insights and perspectives to help you navigate it more effectively. We thank you for your understanding and your trust. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

new year james connor jim rickards

BREAKING: Canada's Job Market is in BIG F@#KING TROUBLE

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 11, 2024 18:44

Canada's official unemployment rate jumped in November, reaching its highest level since 2016 (outside 2020). And that was only the beginning. Given how highly synchronized US Treasury rates are with Canadian government bonds, not to mention the Fed and the Bank of Canada, we expect a lot of similarities in the real economy. This one is getting to be uncomfortably close. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlYahoo!finance Canada's interest rates will likely fall. Where will they end up?https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/canadas-interest-rates-will-likely-fall-where-will-they-end-up-150459864.htmlCBC Jobless rate reaches 6.8% in November, highest since 2017, excluding pandemichttps://www.cbc.ca/news/business/jobs-unemployment-november-1.7403156Bloomberg Canada Jobless Rate Jumps to 6.8%, Raising Odds of Big Cuthttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-06/canada-jobless-rate-jumps-to-6-8-raising-odds-of-big-cutFinancial Post Canada's unemployment rate rises to 6.8%, raising odds of jumbo interest rate cuthttps://financialpost.com/news/economy/canadas-unemployment-rate-rises-to-6-8https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

money canada canadian depression bank economy inflation recession fed central banks job market deflation us treasury big f jim rickards jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Jim Rickards: Will AI Destroy the World?

The James Altucher Show

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 52:19

A Note from James: Money GPT. I mean, we've all heard about the incredible potential of AI, and I've shared my optimism about its future in many episodes. But today, we have Jim Rickards back on the show, and he's here to offer a more skeptical perspective. You might remember our earlier discussion where Jim laid out a masterclass on the economy, its history, and what might unfold over the next few years. Now, he's back with insights from his new book, Money GPT, diving into what we should watch out for when it comes to AI and its impact on the economy. Let's get into this compelling discussion with Jim Rickards. Episode Description: In this episode, James Altucher welcomes back bestselling author Jim Rickards to discuss his latest book, Money GPT. Jim delves into the transformative power of AI, highlighting both its immense benefits and the potential risks it poses, particularly to the global economy and financial markets. Drawing on his experience building AI models for the CIA, Jim explains how AI is reshaping industries and warns of its unintended consequences. The conversation spans the accelerating role of AI in finance, its vulnerabilities, and its parallels with nuclear decision-making processes. Whether you're optimistic or cautious about AI, this episode will challenge your perspective with fresh insights and historical context. What You'll Learn: How AI is amplifying financial market volatility and increasing systemic risks. The concept of "cybernetics" as a solution to mitigate market crashes. The differences between AI's success in music and its limitations in writing. Why AI's self-referential feedback loops could worsen over time. The parallels between AI in finance and its potential misuse in nuclear decision-making. Timestamped Chapters: [00:01:30] Introduction: Revisiting AI and its role in the economy. [00:03:24] The dual nature of AI: Power and risk. [00:06:50] GPT breakthroughs and the future of language models. [00:11:34] Why AI excels in music but struggles with writing. [00:19:46] The rise of passive investing and its dangers. [00:23:14] Cybernetics: A strategy to stabilize financial markets. [00:39:15] The risks of removing humans from critical decision-making chains. [00:47:53] Will AI replace jobs faster than it creates new ones? Additional Resources: Jim Rickards' book, Money GPT. Related episode: The History and Future of the Economy with Jim Rickards.

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China Just Flipped After 14 Years – Here's How It Will Impact the World

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 10, 2024 18:37

China's top government body, the politburo, attempted to reignite the "stimulus" sentiment with another wordy communication chock full of more promises and platitudes. To begin with, this doesn't bode very well for the "bazooka." Global market reaction wasn't what Beijing was looking for, either. Even stocks and Economists. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisWebinar w/Jim Rickards, Wednesday Dec 11 at 6:30pm ET. Sign up here: https://event.webinarjam.com/register/26/x671pimlSCMP China's consumer inflation hits 5-month low, leaves room for more stimulushttps://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3289917/chinas-consumer-inflation-falls-short-november-factory-price-drag-continuesBloomberg China Signals Bolder Stimulus for Next Year as Trump Returnshttps://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-09/china-shifts-monetary-policy-stance-for-first-time-since-2011https://www.eurodollar.universityTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDU

money china depression global economy inflation beijing recession economists next year central banks flipped deflation impact the world jim rickards jeff snider eurodollar university alhambra investments

Jim Rickards – AI, Debt, And The Global Economy

Porter & Co. Black Label Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 6, 2024 75:20

Guest: Jim Rickards Welcome to the Porter & Co. Black Label Podcast – a provocative, no-holds-barred space where Porter and Aaron talk about markets, politics, and life with a series of very special guests. This month's special guest is Jim Rickards – editor of Strategic Intelligence. You can learn more about Jim's new book, MoneyGPT, here. Show highlights include: The story of when Porter and Jim first met… What Jim sees for gold futures… Predictions for the first year of Trump's second term… Jim's new book on ChatGPT and its threat to the global economy… A deep conversation about AI… The ticking time bomb inside the stock market… What Porter calls “the single worst trade in the history of human capital markets”… The real problem with excessive U.S. government debt… Porter and Jim's gentleman's bet on Russia… Viewer letters… And much more… Click here to listen to the full podcast now. And grab your free reports at https://porterspodcast.com. And be sure to follow us on X at https://x.com/Porter_and_Co and https://x.com/porterstansb. To your success, Porter & Co.

donald trump predictions chatgpt debt global economy jim rickards

Jim Rickards: Access to Your Cash At Major Risk, How AI Could Lead to Market Catastrophe

Financial Sense(R) Newshour

Play Episode Listen Later Dec 4, 2024 32:58

"One of the solutions is to have assets that are not digital, that are not in the stock market or in the banking systems,” says Jim Rickards, New York Times bestselling author. In an interview with Daniela Cambone, he discusses his new book, MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy, making a case for why AI could amplify market volatility. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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Jim Rickards: Will Trump Save the Economy and Drain the Swamp?

The James Altucher Show

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2024 67:45

A Note from James:Oh my gosh. I always feel like my IQ goes up when I talk to Jim Rickards. He has so much knowledge about so many things, but particularly, he's been there, done that when it comes to all things in the economy. Some of his stories about what he's personally seen and done are tied to some of the most famous events in the economy over the past 50 years.Anyway, he wrote a new book, Money GPT, which is about the financial aspects of AI and how it could affect the economy. But we started off with the basics. I just wanted to ask him: What do you think is going to happen in this economy? And we go deep. So, we divided this into two parts.Part one covers everything you need to know about the current state of the U.S. economy. This was a real education for me, and I read a lot about this stuff. So, I'm excited to share it with you. The second part, which will come out later, is all about AI and its effects on the economy.Here's my friend Jim Rickards. I'm sure you're going to enjoy this as much as I did. And, as always, if you have any comments or questions, let me know. And, please, subscribe to the podcast if you haven't already.Episode Description:In this episode, James Altucher sits down with renowned economist and author Jim Rickards to break down the complexities of today's economy. With decades of experience and a front-row seat to some of history's most pivotal financial events, Jim delivers sharp insights into the forces driving economic cycles. This discussion dives into historical parallels, the impact of policy decisions, and what lies ahead for the U.S. economy under potential future administrations.Jim also shares his take on how recession cycles play out, the legacy of interest rate hikes, and why both borrower and lender psychology matter more than Federal Reserve actions. Packed with valuable lessons, this episode offers a rare look at economic trends from a perspective few can match.What You'll Learn:The historical parallels between Reagan-era recessions and today's economic landscape.Why low interest rates aren't necessarily a stimulus and the real drivers of economic growth.How borrower and lender behavior impact recessions more than Federal Reserve policies.The role of government and corporate partnerships in shaping modern economies.What could catalyze a shift from stagnation to growth in today's economic climate.Timestamped Chapters:[00:01:30] Introduction to Jim Rickards and his new book, Money GPT[00:02:17] Overview of the U.S. economy's current state[00:03:16] Historical parallels: Lessons from Reagan-era recessions[00:07:02] Interest rates: Stimulus or symptom of deeper issues?[00:10:14] Depression vs. recession: How the definitions shape our understanding[00:18:33] The psychology of lending and borrowing in recessions[00:27:20] Modern banking, bail-ins, and the Silicon Valley Bank collapse[00:34:21] The Fed's limits: What really moves the economy[00:45:21] Government-corporate partnerships: Are we living in a new era of fascism?[00:58:22] Can Trump's policies truly drain the swamp and drive economic growth?Additional Resources:Jim Rickards' book: Money GPTJim Rickards' previous works: The Death of Money, Aftermath ------------What do YOU think of the show? Head to JamesAltucherShow.com/listeners and fill out a short survey that will help us better tailor the podcast to our audience!Are you interested in getting direct answers from James about your question on a podcast? Go to JamesAltucherShow.com/AskAltucher and send in your questions to be answered on the air!------------Visit Notepd.com to read our idea lists & sign up to create your own!My new book, Skip the Line, is out! Make sure you get a copy wherever books are sold!Join the You Should Run for President 2.0 Facebook Group, where we discuss why you should run for President.I write about all my podcasts! Check out the full post and learn what I learned at jamesaltuchershow.com------------Thank you so much for listening! If you like this episode, please rate, review, and subscribe to “The James Altucher Show” wherever you get your podcasts: Apple PodcastsiHeart RadioSpotifyFollow me on social media:YouTubeTwitterFacebookLinkedIn

Jim Rickards: Will Trump Save the Economy and Drain the Swamp?

The James Altucher Show

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2024 67:45 Transcription Available

Jim Rickards on MoneyGPT: AI and the Threat to the Global Economy

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2024 39:27

Nov 13, 2024 – What scenarios might unfold in the coming months and years as highly advanced, autonomous models like OpenAI's o1 are integrated into capital markets—and potentially exploited or weaponized within the global economy? That's...

Jim Rickards: Markets Are Blind To This Massive New Risk

Thoughtful Money with Adam Taggart

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2024 56:49

The markets continue to surge to all-time record highs, driven in no small part by expectations of a massive productivity boom enabled by artificial intelligence, otherwise known as AI Corporate America and Wall Street are clearly shrugging off the warnings that science fiction gave us about AI taking command of the world's technology to eradicate humans. But...there are some skeptics, like today's guest expert, who do think AI is a serious threat to the global financial order and to national security. A threat that cause chaos to ripple through the world's systems at lightning speed. In this new book MoneyGPT: AI & The Threat To The Global Economy, Wall Street veteran and former advisor to the Department of Defense James Rickards lays out the specific risks of AI we need to remain vigilant to, and the steps we can take to make the Age of AI safer for both our national interests as well as those of our species as a whole. WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.com #ai #artificialintelligence #marketcrash --- Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support

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#210 Jim Rickards: Weakness, Recession in 6-9 Months, But a Very Strong Economy in 2-4 Years

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 12, 2024 53:57

Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 210 to discuss the 2024 election results, his outlook for the economy and why he sees a recession in the near term followed by a great recovery, and his warning on artificial intelligence. ✨ This episode is sponsored by Public.com. https://public.com/julia ✨ Paid endorsement for Public Investing, Inc. Not investment advice. All investing involves the risk of loss, including loss of principal. Brokerage services for US-listed, registered securities, options and bonds in a self-directed account are offered by Public Investing, Inc., member FINRA & SIPC. Public Investing offers a High-Yield Cash Account where funds from this account are automatically deposited into partner banks where they earn interest and are eligible for FDIC insurance; Public Investing is not a bank. Treasury accounts offering 6 months T-Bills are offered by Jiko Securities, Inc.,member FINRA & SIPC. Securities in your account are protected up to $500,000. For details: www.sipc.org. Banking services and the Bank Accounts are provided by Jiko Bank, a division of Mid- Central National Bank. For U.S. Investments in T-bills: Not FDIC Insured; No Bank Guarantee; May Lose Value. Treasuries risk disclosures, see https://jiko.io/docs/treasuries_risk_disclosure.pdf. See public.com/#disclosures-main A Bond Account is a self-directed brokerage account with Public Investing, member FINRA/SIPC and includes 10 investment-grade and high-yield bonds. As of [11/08/24], the average, annualized yield to worst (YTW) across all ten bonds is greater than 6%. A bond's YTW is not “locked in” until the bond is purchased and is not guaranteed; you may receive less than the YTW of the bonds in the Bond Account if you sell any of the bonds before maturity or if the issuer defaults on the bond. While corporate bond yields should fall in reaction to a Federal Reserve rate cut, there is no way to know whether that will be true of the bonds in the Bond Account, how quickly bond yields will respond, or by how much they will decline. Bond Accounts are not recommendations of individual bonds or default allocations. The bonds in the Bond Account have not been selected based on your needs or risk profile. All investing involves risk. Public Investing charges a markup on each bond trade. Visit public.com/bond-account to learn more More about Rickards: Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: https://www.amazon.com/MoneyGPT-AI-Threat-Global-Economy/dp/0593718631 http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards

527: Countdown to Disaster—Four Threats Facing the U.S. with Richard Duncan

Wealth Formula by Buck Joffrey

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 11, 2024 52:54

Keith discusses the current state of the US economy, noting that while it is considered strong by conventional measures, there are four major threats on the horizon that the country is not doing enough to address. He's joined by our guest, macroeconomic expert, Richard Duncan to discuss these topics. Richard proposes a solution that could strengthen the US's competitive position against China. Shifting from Capitalism to Creditism. Also, hear about the risks facing the real estate and stock markets in the near-term, such as the historically high wealth-to-income ratio and the ongoing quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve. Learn more about Richard's work through his video newsletter, Macro Watch. Use discount code GRE for 50% off at: RichardDuncanEconomics.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/527 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching:GREmarketplace.com/Coach Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript: Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai Keith Weinhold 0:01 Keith, welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, per conventional measures, today's us. Economy is strong, but there are four vicious threats on the horizon, and we're not doing enough about them. Our macroeconomist guests will discuss that with us today. How alarming is it, and what's the solution to our crises, this week on get rich education, Speaker 1 0:27 since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, who delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com Corey Coates 1:12 You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold 1:28 Welcome to GRE from Fort Wayne, Indiana to Fort Lee New Jersey and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education. We've been here for you, every single week since 2014 coming off of an election last week, this spurs more macroeconomic thought, monetary and fiscal policy, and more than that. And you know, one thing that I'm always looking for are signs of inflation versus deflation, because we live in a long term inflationary world. Well, you wouldn't keep a million bucks under a mattress because it would only be worth 300k in a few decades. But in deflation, you would flip your strategy and actually be a saver. You might keep millions out of the mattress, because deflation would actually increase the purchasing power of every single one of your dollars. Now, I've got a pretty unpopular take for you here at some point, probably now you've got to give the Fed credit for a soft landing. And what does a soft landing mean? Exactly. It means bringing down inflation without putting the economy into a recession. Well, inflation is down to about 2% now, unemployment is still low, near 4% and GDP growth for last quarter came in at 2.8% okay, yes, I sure understand that those benefits are distributed unevenly, but at this point, how much more of a soft landing Do you really want? And by the way, this sure doesn't mean that I love the Federal Reserve. I mean, they get no credit from me for not jumping on inflation sooner, when it peaked two and a half years ago, or even before that point, well, those high consumer prices as a result of that are still with us, and that's a problem, and they got that part wrong. We're about to talk with our global macroeconomic expert, really. He is one of the foremost authorities in the entire world today. We're going to talk about four major catastrophes the US economic future faces. One of those four is our ballooning national debt and deficit. And to review that for you, first, the debt is our overall accumulation of debt over the years now at 36 trillion. And when it comes to these awful, dreadful debt and deficit issues, I will ask our guests the question, when is it game over? Where is that tipping point? What would need to happen and the deficit? Okay, that refers to the annual shortfall, the annual thing, that shortfall that our bloated government keeps coming up with at the end of every year, all right, so therefore revenue minus spending equals deficit. Another way to say that is income minus expenses equals a deficit when the expenses are greater than the income. Well, that figure is near $2 trillion we're spending 2 trillion more than we raise in revenue each year. And here's an example. I'll use real world numbers rounded off to the nearest trillion. So if the government's annual revenue is only 5 trillion and you have to subtract out spending, which is 7 trillion, that could. Gives us an annual deficit of 2 trillion, pretty simple stuff, and that more or less gets added onto our overall debt of 36 trillion. Another major problem is this growing competition from China. Yes, I know that people like to discuss their demographic problems, but still, their population is more than four times the US population, and you learn about what other advantages they have over us and what we direly need to do to catch up. In our guests opinion, these issues incur some rather detailed explanations. So I'm really going to let our guest expert takeover for a while today, this weekend, I will be in San Antonio, Texas. San Antonio is an uptrending real estate market because they are really a beneficiary in distribution with their proximity to Mexico in the near shoring movement that's taking place. And then I will be in Austin, Texas, for a few days, Austin is one of the few major US metros that have seen rents substantially decline recently. I'll bring you next week's show from Austin, where I might talk more about that. Then, from the 20th to the 24th of this month, I'll be in New Orleans at the famed New Orleans investment conference, where they're pulling out all the stops at the 50th anniversary of the event, and that is the longest running investment event in America and perhaps the world. I hope to meet some of you there in New Orleans, just like I do each time I'm at the event. Let's talk about the bigger picture economy that your real estate and investments float within next. This week's guest is the author of four books analyzing the crises that brought the global economy to the brink of collapse in recent decades. One of the books forecast the 2008 global financial crisis with great accuracy. We're going to discuss future crises here today, before we're done, he has worked as an equities and Investment Analyst, and then he went on to hold some rather esteemed roles at the World Bank in DC and as a consultant to the IMF in Asia. He joins us from Thailand today. He now publishes a video newsletter called macro watch, and long time listeners know that today's guest was also this show's very first guest that was back on GRE podcast episode seven, only 10 years ago now, in November 2014, and he's really become quite the friend of the show, and we've looked out for each other ever since. It's terrific to have back global macro economist Richard Duncan Richard Duncan 7:46 Keith, hey, thank you for having me back. It's great to speak with you again. Keith Weinhold 7:50 Oh, it's so good to have you here an entire decade of our lives. And as times change, economies are surely dynamic, and you're so good at spotlighting crises and explaining them in a way to people that they can understand. So Richard, why don't you talk to us now about risks facing the nation? Yes, I'm talking about the United States. Richard Duncan 8:15 A lot of podcasts focus on all the problems the United States is facing, and it is certainly true that the United States is facing very serious risk. So I'd like to start off this conversation telling you what I think the greatest risk facing our country are. There are four main things I'd like to hit on. The first is something you mentioned to me before in our exchange of emails, is that the US government does have a very high level of government debt relative to GDP, and the budget deficits are large. So that's problem number one. Problem number two, in my opinion, looking at this from where I live in Asia, is that the United States is at risk of being conquered by China in the not too distant future. Risk Number Two. Risk Number three, we have very serious domestic political divisions within the United States. Risk Number four is that our post capitalist economic system, which I call creditism, must have credit growth to survive. If credit contracts, then our economy will spiral into a Great Depression that will be probably worse than the one of the 1930s so those are the big four problems that we have, and it doesn't do anyone any good just to talk about our country's problems if you don't offer a solution to them. So in my opinion, all of these problems can be overcome by accelerating economic growth in the United States, while all of these problems would be made very much worse by anything that causes us economic growth to slow down. The way to make the US economy grow much faster is to have the US Government finance a very, very large investment in the industries and technologies of the future over the next 10 years, starting immediately. The alternative austerity would cause the economy to spiral down into deflation. We'd like your listeners to think of austerity when they hear the word austerity. I'd like them to think of the word death. It's austerity is equal to death. Yeah, the US doesn't have to be a declining power. The first American Century doesn't have to be the last. It can be the first of many. The solution for driving the US economy to grow much more rapidly and solving all four of the problems that I mentioned above is a US sovereign wealth fund. Thank heavens. Both parties now support the establishment of a US sovereign wealth fund. On September 5, former President Trump came out in support of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, and on the following day, the Biden administration said, then working on this for months and had a plan that they were developing. So this is fantastic news for the United States. It offers great hope for solving all of our greatest problems. And I'd like to spend, you know, a few minutes explaining to your listeners what a US sovereign wealth fund is, yes, urgently necessary, and why both parties have now come to understand why this is important to establish. Keith Weinhold 11:27 Yeah, please tell us why you think the US sovereign wealth fund is so urgently needed, and what it is because for even longer than the 10 years since you were first here, for about 15 years now, you have championed and promoted this US sovereign wealth fund. You discussed it on CNBC Squawk Box and all over the place. Last year, you presented about it in a speech in DC to 15 members of the House, Ways and Means Committee. So tell us about the US sovereign wealth fund and why you think it's urgently needed. Richard Duncan 11:56 Let's begin with, what is a sovereign wealth fund? Well, effectively, a sovereign wealth fund is where a country invest in individual companies or even in startups. There are sovereign wealth funds all around the world. Norway has the largest, Singapore has two very effective ones called gdic and Temasek, which had been enormously profitable and successful, and it made the people in Singapore much richer. So a sovereign wealth fund in the United States would be an investment bond financed by the United States government with the US. This investment fund would take stakes in existing companies and also in startup companies, hopefully on a very large scale. Now, some people have asked, Why is this framework necessary? Why do we need a sovereign wealth fund to do that when the government is already making investments in the military, for instance, and funding some R and D research? Well, the difference between what the government is doing now and a sovereign wealth fund is with a sovereign wealth fund, the government would actually keep equity stakes in these companies that they invest in, meaning that when these companies they invest in become enormously profitable, the profits would be owned by every American. The Americans would have the equity stakes in all of the investments that this sovereign wealth fund makes. And it would be a situation where the government provides the financing, but the private sector manages the companies. The government just finances these companies in new industries and new technologies, and the government has the ability to invest on a very much larger scale than the private sector does. For example, The United States has a lot of great companies in the private sector that have accomplished really, truly great things in recent years and long past as well. But these private sector companies cannot invest on the same scale that the Chinese government can. The Chinese government is investing on a much larger scale than any of the American companies could ever dream to invest on. And that's explains why China is overtaking us now technologically, and if they continue to invest at a rapid rate that they're doing currently, then before long, there are going to be far ahead of us technologically and therefore economically, and more worryingly, militarily, the US government has the ability to invest truly on a multi trillion dollar scale over the next decade in new industries and technologies, things like artificial intelligence, quantum computing, nanotech, biotech, genetic engineering and developing energy sources like fusion, and it has the ability to do this on such a large scale that it would be certain to succeed. And once these companies start creating cancer vaccines or fusion, for instance, they would be enormously profitable, and they could be listed on. NASDAQ at multi trillion dollar valuations, and the American public would own equity stakes in these companies, and would then would directly reap the rewards of these profits that these companies would generate. That is what a sovereign wealth fund is, why it's desperately needed, is, well, first of all, we should do it, because we can easily afford to do it. And the results, the breakthroughs, the technological breakthroughs and medical miracles that these sorts of companies would produce, would we really have the shot of curing all the diseases and radically extending life expectancy, developing sources of limitless energy that would bring down the cost of energy radically. Just across the board, it would induce a technological revolution that would turbo charge us economic growth, create UNDRIP wealth, and at the same time, shore up US national security in the face of this growing threat from China. So for all of those reasons, it is urgently necessary. In my opinion. Keith Weinhold 16:04 both Norway and Singapore have had similar models to this. US sovereign wealth fund, and we certainly think of those two nations as prosperous places, tell me more about why it's a success so the government finances it does that incentivize companies to therefore take more risk? Richard Duncan 16:25 It allows them to invest more. It allows them to invest on a much larger scale than that. Could if they have to rely on their own funding sources. Rather than investing millions of dollars, they could invest billions of dollars or 10s of billions of dollars. For instance, at the moment, the National Cancer Institute in the United States, this annual budget is $6 billion a year. $6 billion a year is not curing cancer. If we look back a few years ago, the Fed was creating $120 billion a month through quantitative easing per month. So with just 5% of one month of QE, you could double the National Cancer Institute's budget. Now that's not what this sovereign wealth fund would do. That just illustrates the scale. How much greater the scale would be that the government could invest on relative to what is currently being invested at the moment by the government and by the private sector combined. Keith Weinhold 17:28 Do any critics ever ask about Wait? Is this too much government intervention into the free market? Is this a move away from capitalism? What do you say to those sort of critics? Richard Duncan 17:38 I say to them that capitalism died in World War One. It certainly didn't survive the 20th century. Now the government. In the 19th century, we had capitalism. The government had very little involvement in the economy then and gold was money. But now gold is no longer money. The Fed creates some money. Government spending is something like nearly $7 trillion out of a GDP. That is around just not quite $30 trillion yet. So the government has been directing the economy going back at least since World War Two. This hasn't been capitalism for a very long time. Under capitalism, the private sector made investments, and some businessmen would make profits from their investments, and they would save that profit as capital and reinvest that capital. That's how capitalism grew. That's why they called it capitalism. It was based on capital accumulation and investment. But that's not how our economic system has worked for decades. Our system now is not driven by investment and saving by the private sector. It's driven by credit creation and consumption and more credit creation and more consumption and our economies has now been transformed from capitalism. It has evolved into creditism, with the government playing the directing role. So total credit in the United States, just last quarter blew through $100 trillion for the first time. By what I mean by total credit is the same thing as total debt. Total credit is equal to total debt. So this is all the debt of all sectors of the economy, the government sector, the household sector, the corporate sector, the financial sector, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all the sectors of the economy, it just went through $100 trillion and Breda ism has created very rapid growth, especially all around the world, not only in the United States, because it has allowed the US economy to grow so rapidly and to import so much from other countries that this is why The Asian miracle occurred. I've lived through the Asian miracle because the US has been running massively large trade deficits since the early 1980s and all these countries in Asia have been running massively large trade surpluses, and all this spending that the Americans have been doing has been fueled by this rapidly. Radically expansion of credit. Total credit first went through $1 trillion in 1964 now it's $100,000,000,000,000. 60 years later. Now our system is not capitalism. The government is very involved. Anytime there's any problem with the economy, the government steps in. In 2008 the government prevented a new Great Depression when the private sector the households defaulted on their debts and caused all the banks to fail, and Freddie Mac did fail and had to be taken over by the government. So at that time, we narrowly avoided a Great Depression, because the government increased its budget deficits by more than a trillion dollars a year for four years in a row, and the Fed expanded. The Fed created three and a half trillion dollars between the end of 2007 and 2014, expanding its balance sheet by about five times. So that's not capitalism. We don't have capitalism. So people who are worried about us abandoning capitalism. They're behind the times that happened a long time ago. That shouldn't be a concern. They should be aware now that we are competing against players who don't play by the capitalist rules of little government intervention in the markets we're now competing against China, and China is one giant sovereign wealth fund intent on dominating the world by investing very aggressively in new industries and technologies. In the year 2000 the United States invested, I think, 10 times as much in research and development as China did. But now China is actually investing more in research and development and the US is and that explains why China is ahead in so many areas of technology. They had 5g years before we did. They are the leaders in electric vehicles and batteries. We have to put up 100% tariffs to keep out electric vehicles from China because they're so much better than our electric vehicles. They dominate solar panels. And are worse, they have hypersonic missiles and we don't, and I'm sure they have other military advantages that we don't, because they invest much more aggressively in new industries and technologies than our government does. And if we don't rectify this quickly, then we are soon going to be overtaken by China militarily, and our national security is at risk, much more than most Americans understand. But this realization has slowly grown on policymakers in Washington, and now both parties are worried about this, and this is why we have this growing fear of China, and why we have proposals to limit technology transfers to China, and this is why we've done things like the chips and science act, where the government has agreed to finance a $280 billion investment in new industries and technologies a couple of years ago, with 50 billion of that going into setting up manufacturing facilities within the in the US to create semiconductors, rather than relying solely on Taiwan to obtain all of our semiconductors, because China could take Taiwan at any moment, and then then he would end up with all the semiconductor chips that go into powering artificial intelligence. And whoever develops Artificial General Intelligence first is going to rule the world, and therefore it had better be the United States rather than China, because we don't want to live in a world dominated by China, believe me. Keith Weinhold 23:26 Well, a lot of macro voices agree with you. About two months ago, we had the president of the Mises Institute here, and the way he characterized things are in the United States. 100 years ago, we had islands of socialism in a sea of capitalism, and today we merely have islands of capitalism in a sea of socialism. Do you see the US sovereign wealth fund being able to solve all four of the United States big problems that you outlined, debt and deficit conquering by China, political division and creditism. Can it solve all four of those? Richard Duncan 24:04 Yes, it can. So as you know, Keith, a couple of years ago, I published my fourth book. It was called the money revolution. Yeah? How to find the book? Sure, yeah. How to finance the next American century. It was a subtitle. Now I argue that it would be very easy for the US to invest on a multi trillion dollar scale, new industries and new technologies over the next decade, and if we do that through a sovereign wealth fund, then would generate so much growth and be so profitable that instead of causing the government debt to increase, it would actually make the economy so much larger and generate so many more tax revenues, and the government would make so many profits from these companies that it has equity stakes in that it would reduce the government debt in absolute terms, and radically reduce the government debt relative to GDP, which would grow far faster than it has been growing in recent decades. This problem, number one, solved the high level of government debt. A high level of debt to GDP just make the GDP grow a lot faster, and the ratio of debt to GDP will go down. Problem number two is the US is at risk of being conquered by China. We can out invest China. We can invest more than China can afford to invest. We still have the best universities and the best entrepreneurs and scientists. So if we invest on a large enough scale, we will win, and China will not conquer us. Third, if the economy is growing at 7% a year instead of 1% a year, that is going to alleviate a lot of the domestic tensions that exist currently, much of the reason there's the origins of this domestic political divide that we're now suffering from in the US is because such a large part of the population has been left behind when all the factories moved overseas, countries like China and Vietnam, we de industrialized, and the people who Used to have good factory jobs, good, unionized, high paying factory jobs. All those people were left out in the cold, and they're not happy about it. And so if our economy were growing much more rapidly, these people would have much better jobs and much higher salaries, and they would be much happier than they are at the moment. And the final one was our post capitalist system of creditism requires credit growth to survive. So if the government is financing these investments on a multi trillion dollar scale, it's going to make credit expand, and that's going to keep the economy expanding. So yes, it would solve all four of those problems. Keith Weinhold 26:35 One of those four problems is the debt and the deficit. I want to dive into that more with Richard as it becomes more and more problematic in the United States, and just how far we can kick this can down the road. You're listening to get rich education. We're talking with macro economist Richard Duncan. More, we come back. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold. Oh, geez. The national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. So your bank is getting rich off of you. 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They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. You can start your pre qualification and chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. Start Now while it's on your mind at Ridgelendinggroup.com that's Ridgelendinggroup.com Jim Rickards 28:40 this is Author Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. Keith Weinhold 28:55 Welcome back to get rich education. We are going big this week, talking about the global economy, although mostly centered on the United States, with macroeconomist Richard Duncan. You can learn more about him at RichardDuncaneconomics.com and Richard I want to talk about the debt in the deficit. The debt is the United States overall debt as it accumulates year after year, and the deficit is just the annual thing, and it's so interesting and concerning. When I look at this, when you look at the line items in the United States government's annual spending, we now see that interest payments are taking the second largest chunk, only to Social Security. Social Security's number one interest is the second biggest expense, even more than defense spending and on Medicare. So I just wonder, as I see the interest payments going up and up and up and projected to be our greatest expense every year. You know, one thing I think about Richard is when our interest payments alone exceed our. Revenue somewhere down the road, is that when it's game over, or is that when we're on the way to game over? So can you talk to us about really, where the concern crops up with the deficit, like I talked about, and with the debt that's now at about $36 trillion Richard Duncan 30:17 deficit and debt is a real problem. It was the first problem that I mentioned when we kicked off the conversation. There are two components of that. One is the fact that government debt has been increasing very rapidly. At the end of 2007 total government debt was around $9 trillion by 2014 it had doubled to $18 trillion because the government had to respond to the collapse of the private sector in 2008 and prevent us from having a great depression at that time, and then after 2014 it has doubled again, from 18 trillion to $36 trillion now, much of that was due to the need for the government to keep us from having another Great Depression during COVID When government stimulus amounted to about $5 trillion and the Fed created a similar amount over just a two year period. So now we have a much higher level of government debt. But the second component of that is that interest rates are very much higher than they used to be. The federal funds rate went up from 0% a few years back to a high of five and a quarter, actually a range between five and a quarter and five and a half. And recently, the Fed cut the federal funds rate by 50 basis points. But you can still say it is 4.9% let's call it 4.9% so interest rates are far higher than they used to be, but they don't have to remain high. The reason interest rates went up is because the Fed increased the federal funds rate. And the reason the Fed increased the federal funds rate is because we had high rates of inflation. Inflation peaked at 9% or so in 2022 but most recently, the CPI has come back down to 2.4% and the Fed's favorite measure of inflation, that PCE Price Index, has come down to 2.2% and that means that the federal funds rate, which is 4.9% is more than twice as high as the inflation rate is. That shows us that we have very tight monetary policy, and the Fed should be able to reduce interest rates very rapidly going forward. They've told us in their dot plot projections that they expect that interest rates will end this year the federal funds rate at 4.4% and then in next year, at 3.4% and 2026 at 2.9% so that reduction in interest rates will bring down the cost of the total interest expense that you mentioned as being so high currently, the risk, however, is that we get a rebound in inflation. We're inflation to surge again, then interest rates won't come down. In fact, they could go higher. So all of my career, more or less, has been spent in Asia. And the main theme that is run through the global economy, the development of the global economy over the last three and a half decades has been globalization, globalization in the form of us running very large trade deficits with other countries. Literally, the US current account deficit since the early 1980s has been $15 trillion meaning countries with the trade surpluses have had a $15 trillion trade surplus, and that's why they've all been transformed economically as a result of their trade surplus with the US, but what the US got out of this was the ability to buy things made with very low cost labor, and that was extremely disinflationary, that drove down the inflation rate in the US, and that allowed interest rates in the US to come down to very low levels that we've seen during most of this century, Up until the time COVID started. The real danger is now, if we do impose very high trade tariffs on China and our other trading partners, then that will cause a very serious spike in inflation. And it won't just be one off, because, of course, when the tariffs are put in place, that will immediately cause everything to be that much more expensive. The US companies importing goods from abroad would have to pay that tariff, then those US companies would pass those higher expenses on to the consumers, so we'd get an immediate spike in inflation. But that would also mean that the companies abroad it wouldn't be so profitable for them to have their manufacturing facilities abroad, they would try to bring those back home. And given that the unemployment rate in the US is so low already, only 4.1% there's not enough labor to allow these manufacturing facilities to come back to the US and start producing goods in the US. So that would cause an upward spiral. In wages and the wage push inflation spiral of the type that we had in the late 1960s and early 1970s so that is a In other words, tariffs would put an end to globalization, and that would cause a such a severe spike in inflation and interest rates, it would essentially be the death nail for creditism, which requires credit growth to survive. The end of globalization would mean this end of this 30 year global economic boom that the world has enjoyed, and therefore it is a very severe threat, and it would push up the interest expense of the US government, which you let off with, instead of lower interest rates, bringing down the interest expense the government has to pay every year, we would have instead higher interest rates, which would make the amount that the government has to pay on its interest even higher than it is at the moment, and make the budget deficit even larger than it is at the moment, and Make the government debt grow even faster than it's growing at the moment. So let's hope that doesn't happen. Instead, the better approach is to invest, to have the government finance large scale investments in new industries and technologies make the economy grow much more rapidly and we can grow our way out of this debt problem that we're currently in, Keith Weinhold 36:21 yes more inflation, whether that comes from higher tarrifs or any other sources, will lead to higher interest rates to counteract that higher inflation, which will Yes, pump up the deficit in the debt that much more. And you know, one thing that I like about Richard is, you know, a lot of people complain about things, or say, what are we going to do? Or Things look bad, and Richard is saying some of that, but he offers a way forward with the US sovereign wealth fund, like he talked about before, investing our way out of it. So Richard, if we don't invest in this debt and deficit situation gets worse. It could be a hard question to answer, but I'd like your best guess at how far can we kick the can down the road? When is it game over? How big do our interest payments on the debt and deficit have to get? Richard Duncan 37:10 the game is never over. No matter how bad things become, humanity will survive and carry on. So even in the Great Depression, people made it through, even through World War Two that resulted, largely as a result of the Great Depression. A lot of people died. 60 million people died, but the game didn't end. So regardless of how bad the economic system system were to become, humanity will survive and there will be a solution. Now, a lot of people put forward that, the idea that they point out that we have this high level of government debt, and their solution is to reduce government spending. The government spends something like $6.8 trillion last year. That was the amount the government spent. The budget deficit last year was 1.8 trillion so in order to eliminate the budget deficit, the government would have to spend $1.8 trillion less. In other words, it would have to cut its spending by 27% but the government cut its spending by 27% they're going to happen. The economy would immediately spiral into a depression. So even that reduction in spending wouldn't balance the budget, because the government revenues would collapse, and they would have even fewer tax revenues, so the deficit would still be there, the economy would collapse, and the unemployment rate would be 20 plus percent, and would just fall further behind China and be at greater risk from a national security perspective, and much more miserable As a society overall. That's why it's always say people should consider think of the words austerity and death at the same time, because austerity would bring about the collapse of our economic system and the Great Depression unless your civilization would survive it. trying to answer your question more directly, how high could this go? Well, governments don't default on their debt when push comes to shove. If the government's having a hard time paying interest on its debt, the Fed will just print more money. And in a case where between 2008 and 2014 when the Fed created three and a half trillion dollars, they printed a lot of money at that short space of time, and they got away with it without having high rates of inflation. The highest rate of inflation we had during that period was 3.8% in 2011 and by the early months of 2015 we had deflation again for a few months. Prices actually fell negative CPI for a few months in 2015 so if we have a global economy, as we do at the moment, full of we have nearly 8 billion people, I would guess 2 billion of them at least live on less than $5 a day. So the US could get away with having a lot of paper money printing without having higher, very high rates of inflation and the government could finance itself that way for quite a long time. Of course, if we have a closed domestic economy brought about by extremely high tariff barriers, then we would end up with hyperinflation in the United States. But even with hyperinflation, it would be very painful for people who have all their cash in the bank or under their mattress, but people with assets, those asset prices would appreciate more or less in line with the inflation, and it would erode the government debt relative to the size of the economy, because the GDP would grow in nominal terms very rapidly because of the hyperinflation, and the debt, which is not inflation adjusted, would be evaporated away by the inflation. Keith Weinhold 40:43 right? that's why here at GRE we are all invested and aimed toward prudent use of leverage with assets like real estate and we sure have been the beneficiaries of that wave of inflation that followed COVID there. Richard, well, we're talking about the debt and the deficit somewhat, which, interestingly, has actually doubled since the first time you were here on the show. When you were here, 10 years ago, it was at 18 trillion, and today it's at 36 trillion. We talked about, how far can you kick the can down the road back then? Well, here we are, 10 years later, and it's doubled. Talk to us. You know, you talked previously about the greatest risk to the United States economy. Tell us now, as we are investors here on this show, about the greatest risk to the real estate and stock market, I would just say within the next year. What are some of those risks to those particular markets? Richard Duncan 41:38 We've already discussed the main risk that high tariffs would potentially cause a new spike of inflation and force the Fed to hike interest rates rather than cutting interest rates. But there are some other risk as well. One is the fact that we already have a very high level of wealth relative to income. Let me back up a second. You were talking about debt doubling since we first spoke 10 years ago. Here's another statistic for you. Just in the last four and a half years, the total wealth of the Americans, all of their assets minus all of their liabilities. In other words, household sector net worth. Since the end of 2019 it has increased by $47 trillion in four and a half years. That's about a 40% increase. Now, $47 trillion is enough to pay off the entire US government tip, which we've been worrying about with $11 trillion left over. So not everything is as bleak as it sounds on the surface. We've had a huge explosion of wealth in the last four and a half years that's been driven by property and also by stocks. The problem now is, is that the level of income the asset prices, are very inflated relative to their historic norms. And one of the ratios that I always keep an eye on is called the wealth to income ratio. It takes the household sector net worth. In other words, the wealth that we were just discussing, which, by the way, is now $164 trillion of wealth owned by the Americans. The wealth divided by income, disposable personal income, this wealth to income ratio is now an extraordinarily high level. The ratio is 785% whereas the average of that ratio going back to 1950 has been 550% the previous two peaks were in the year 2000 when it hit 620 during the NASDAQ bubble, and then that bubble popped, and the stock market crashed, and we had a recession, and it went back to 550 and then it surged to a new peak of 680 during the property bubble. And then that bubble popped, and we almost went into a depression, and that a lot of wealth was destroyed. We had a severe recession. The government had to bail us out from and that ratio went back to 550 again. Now it is just off the charts relative to its previous peaks, because people 680 now it's 785 so people used to suggest that higher asset prices were justified because interest rates were near 0% but even after the Fed hiked interest rates from near 0% to about 5% The asset prices have stayed inflated. That does suggest that asset prices are very inflated and therefore very vulnerable to any sort of shock that could occur, whether geopolitical or economic or domestic political problems. So that's a concern. Another concern is quantitative tightening is still occurring. Quantitative tightening is the opposite of quantitative easing. When, with quantitative easing, the Fed creates money and pumps it into the financial markets, and that tends to make asset prices go up, and it also tends to make interest rates on government debt stay low, because if it pushes up bond prices, it pushes down. Bond yields. Well, now the opposite is occurring. Over the last two years, the Fed has destroyed roughly $2 trillion it created $5 trillion from the end of 2019 till about 2022 during the COVID pandemic, and the policy response to that, the Fed created $5 trillion but now it's destroyed 2 trillion of that five that it created, and is still destroying dollars at the rate of about $60 billion a month, or $700 billion a year. And as it does, as it destroys dollars, it takes dollars out of the financial system, which all other things being the same, tends to make financial conditions tighter, putting upward pressure on bond yields and downward pressure on asset prices. So as this continues, this is a concern, because reduce the liquidity in the system by another $700 billion if it continues for another year, having said that there is still an enormous amount of excess liquidity in the system as a result of all of the money that the Fed has created, going back to 2008 I estimate that the excess liquidity is somewhere around three and a half trillion dollars. If you look at bank reserves and the reverse repos at the Fed is about three and a half trillion dollars of excess liquidity, and the Fed actually has to pay interest to the banks on their bank reserves to hold interest rates up. That's how the Fed controls the federal funds rate now. It pays the banks roughly right now, 4.8% interest on all of the banks bank reserves, and so the banks will not lend money to anyone at less than 4.8% interest, because the Fed will pay them 4.8% interest. Why would they lend to anyone else for less if it suddenly stopped paying interest on these bank reserves, these banks would look around and where would they invest their three and a half trillion dollars in? No one's going to pay them 4.8% or even 3.8% or 2.8% interest rates would plunge because of all the excess liquidity that exists. So this excess liquidity has been a thing that's been driving the economy since COVID started, and it's why we've managed to avoid recession, which everyone is expected to arrive any moment now for the last two and a half years. So there are concerns, but there are also, as always, other reasons for optimism. Keith Weinhold 47:24 Well, that wealth to income ratio that Richard talked about, that's a calculation that you yourself can do. One's net worth is almost eight times their income now, which is at a historic high, which is one concerning point that Richard brought up. Well, Richard, I want you to tell us about your terrific video newsletter, macro watch unless you have any other last thoughts first. Richard Duncan 47:51 well, just one last word on the US sovereign wealth fund. Thank you very much for giving me a chance to discuss that and to explain why both Democrats and Republicans are now in favor of establishing a US sovereign wealth fund, one of the few issues that has bipartisan support. And this must come as a surprise to many of your listeners and most Americans, in fact, why have both parties agreed on really setting up a US sovereign wealth fund? So I'm glad I've had a chance to explain it and why it's so urgently necessary. I'd just like to emphasize the extraordinary benefits that this delivers to the American people, both individually and at a national level, individually, in terms of medical breakthroughs and better health and much more rapid economic growth for the economy, so much more wealth and much more national security as well. So I hope the Americans will get on board with this idea and give it their full support, because it's exactly what our country needs to solve all the four issues, the major issues that I laid out at the beginning of this conversation. But with that said, if your listeners would like to learn more about my work, Macrowatch. Microwatch is a video newsletter. Every couple of weeks, I upload a new video discussing something important happening in the global economy and how that's likely to affect the stock market, property, currencies and commodities. They can find macro watch on my website, which is RichardDuncanEconomics.com that's RichardDuncanEconomics.com Macro Watch has been going on now for 11 years, they'll find more than 100 hours of videos in the microwatch archives. They can begin watching immediately, and they'll receive a new video every couple of weeks. And I'd like to offer your listeners a subscription discount. If they go to Richard Duncan economics.com and hit the subscribe button, they'll be prompted to put in a discount coupon code, if they put it in G, R, E, they can subscribe to macro watch at a 50% discount. That's great. That's GRE so I hope they'll check that out, and at the very least, they can sign up there for my free blog and follow my work that way. Keith Weinhold 49:56 And I have benefited from consuming macro watch content myself over the years, allowing me to sort of stretch my thought process and go macro, which we don't always do as real estate investors. Oh, Richard, it's been valuable as always, and you really offered a solution, a way forward here, something that's really refreshing. It's been great as always, having you back on the show. Richard Duncan 50:18 Yeah. Thank you very much. I look forward to the next time Keith Weinhold 50:21 me too. when it comes to the term capitalism, if that's truly a system that we're no longer in, you know, it seems to get replaced with the word meritocracy, and that is a word that I like, meritocracy, where producers get rewards for being productive, but even that is under attack, and the government just always seems to be stepping in with a safety net. Seemingly everywhere you look, it won't let banks fail. We saw them jump in early last year with Silicon Valley Bank and other bank failures, the government won't let homeowners fail either. I mean, you don't have to think back very far with mortgage loan forbearance in the COVID era, on issues of the debt and deficit. Even Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself has called it unsustainable. That's the word that he used. Like Richard said today, we won't default. We'll just print more. So when it comes to the inflation versus deflation tug of war, the future keeps looking inflationary, but at what rate of inflation? That's what I don't know, and no one really knows. If you like Richard Duncan's content, and you sort of wished he and I's conversation would go on. Well, he is a regular guest here, so I expect him back. But if you're telling yourself, I want more of his content and I want to make it visual at the same time to help really bring this to life, well, visit RichardDuncanEconomics.com hit the subscribe button and get 50% off. That's five zero, 50% off with the discount code. GRE. Happy Veterans Day. Until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. Speaker 2 52:17 Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice, please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively you Keith Weinhold 52:46 The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com

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477: What Pollsters Got Wrong, AI, and the Economy with Jim Rickards

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 10, 2024 44:55

Kamala Harris's big loss on Tuesday night caught almost everyone off guard. Despite widespread expectations that she'd be at least slightly ahead going into the election, the reality turned out starkly different: she got crushed. In those critical battleground states—Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada—where many assumed she had an edge, Trump surged past expectations. Just […] The post 477: What Pollsters Got Wrong, AI, and the Economy with Jim Rickards appeared first on Wealth Formula.

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Jim Rickards: What's Next for Markets, Gold, Bitcoin Post Trump Election Win

Bernard Marr's Future of Business & Technology Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 6, 2024 17:06

Gold prices took a hit today, but Jim Rickards believes the sell-off is temporary. “Gold is being driven by factors that are bigger than Trump,” said Rickards, New York Times bestselling author, adding that while this recent dip may be short-lived, he expects gold to strengthen significantly over time. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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AI And The Threat To The Global Economy

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 4, 2024 51:55

Could AI trigger a catastrophic market crash or even nuclear war? In this eye-opening interview, I'm joined by New York Times bestselling author Jim Rickards to discuss his new book 'MoneyGPT,' where we explore how AI could amplify market panics, accelerate bank runs, and pose unprecedented risks to our financial systems and national security when human judgment is removed from critical decision-making.

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#483 J Powell's Rate Cuts, Financial Illusions & the Looming Threat of CBDC

The Arterburn Radio Transmission Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Sep 19, 2024 54:35 Transcription Available

Is America's economic stability a mere illusion? This episode pulls back the curtain on the recent dramatic rate cuts by Jerome Powell and their ripple effects on stock markets and gold prices. We revisit pivotal moments in financial history, including the detachment from the gold standard in 1971 and the rise of the World Economic Forum, to unravel the long-term impacts on today's financial ecosystem. By examining these historical milestones, we reveal how such economic maneuvers create a superficial sense of prosperity while hiding deeper instabilities.Join me, Tony Arterburn, as we dissect strategic moves in the stock market, the manipulation of stock prices, and profit-taking behaviors that draw eerie parallels to historical figures like the Rothschilds. We also delve into global financial shifts, discussing the implications of the de-dollarization movement and the advent of the petroyuan. With insights from financial experts like Jim Rickards and Zero Hedge, we analyze the potential impact of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), referred to as "Kamala bucks," and assess the looming threat they pose to the American economy.In this thought-provoking segment, we explore Donald Trump's vehement opposition to CBDCs and the implications for American financial freedom. Contrasting views within Trump's inner circle, including Jared Kushner's support for CBDCs, are scrutinized to forecast potential policy influences. Reflecting on events like the cash and coin shortages during the COVID-19 pandemic, we question the future of the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Additionally, we highlight the control of government through monetary means, touching on historical events, the role of supranational entities, and the ongoing tug-of-war between centralization forces and the rise of decentralized financial innovations.

Why GOLD; Dollar Death & New BRICS Gold Currency, Q&A | Andy Schectman

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 9, 2024 37:18

Andy Schectman of Miles Franklin joins us at the Rule Symposium to discuss the decay of the US Dollar, the new BRICS currency "The Unit" which will be GOLD BACKED and answers audience questions. We dive deep into the dealings of China in the silver market and other shenanigans by the big banks, including JP Morgan. --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ --- Guest: Andy Schectman, President Company: Miles Franklin https://milesfranklin.com/ Recorded at the Rule Symposium 2024 Check out the recordings of ALL presentations from the Rule Symposium including Grant Williams, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards, Rick Rule and many more! Register here: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumonNaturalResourceInvesting2024#/?affl=SoarFinancial ---- Save the Date DEUTSCHE GOLDMESSE November 21 & 22, 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany www.deutschegoldmesse.com Register today. --- Follow Us! Twitter: http://twitter.com/soarfinancial Website: http://www.soarfinancial.com/ Timestamps (AI generated): 00:00 Introduction 00:25 New BRICs Settlement Currency 00:38 Special Coverage from the World Symposium 01:30 Precious Metals IRA and Exit Strategy 02:00 Benefits of Precious Metals IRA 02:37 Definition of IRA and Its Benefits 03:15 Undervaluation of Assets and Future Strategies 03:55 Market Trends 04:36 Future of Precious Metals Market 05:12 Importance of Storage and Brokerage Business 06:50 Gold and Silver Revaluation 09:00 Real Value of Gold and Silver 11:00 China and Bullion Banks 12:50 Importance of Gold to China 15:00 BRICs Currency and Project Enbridge 16:20 Central Bank Digital Currencies 19:00 Implications of New Settlement Currency 22:00 Gold Revaluation Account 23:50 Repatriation of Gold by Countries 25:00 Project Enbridge 26:20 Impact on US Dollar 29:00 Actions and Ramifications of US Policies 31:00 Modern Monetary Theory 32:00 JP Morgan and Silver Price Target 33:50 JP Morgan's Role in Precious Metals Market 37:20 Closing Remarks **Disclaimer:** Some of the links presented might be affiliate links. We might receive a commission if a purchase is made using those links! Unless specifically disclosed, all information available on Soar Financial and its affiliates or partners should be considered as non-commercial in nature. None of the content produced by Soar Financial should be considered an endorsement, offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Soar Financial is not registered with any financial or securities regulatory authority in Canada, the US, Europe, or the UK, and does not provide, nor claim to provide, investment advice or recommendations to any consumer of the content that Soar Financial produces and publicizes. Always do your own due diligence and/or consult a qualified legal, tax, or investment professional if personal advice is deemed necessary. Soar Financial and its related companies (including its directors, employees, and representatives) or a connected person may hold equity positions in securities detailed in communications. When this occurs a disclosure will be made. Disclosures on social media will be made using the hashtag #coi (short for conflict of interest). Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective directors, officers, employees, or agents expressly disclaim any liability for losses or damages, whether direct, indirect, special, or consequential, or other consequences, howsoever caused, arising out of any use or reproduction of this site or any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the produced content of Soar Financial, whether authorized or not. By accessing Soar Financial's content, each consumer of Soar Financial content releases Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors, agents, and employees from all claims and proceedings for such losses, damages, or consequences.

Debt Market COLLAPSE: The Ultimate Price Turbo for Gold & Silver! | Francis Hunt

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2024 48:15

In-person, Kai Hoffmann is joined by Francis Hunt, also known as "The Market Sniper," at the Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida. We discuss the current state of global financial markets, the implications of a debt-based collapse, and investment strategies involving gold and silver. --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ---

Why the FED Cuts Will Be Huge For Gold & Silver | Lobo Tiggre

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2024 46:41

Lobo Tiggre joins us in person for in-depth discussion of the financial markets. We cover a lot of ground during this conversation. Topics include the current economic environment, FED actions, central bank gold buying, gold market dynamics & the uranium market. How will expected FED rate cuts impact the gold & silver price? #gold #FED #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

GOLD: Why FOUR Bullmarkets Are Perfect | Peter Grosskopf

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 6, 2024 25:46

"Most investors are buying gold as a hedge to the financial system. So the question is, why would you buy through the financial system if you're trying to hedge it in the first place?" questioned Peter Grosskopf, Founder of Argo Digital Gold. Peter shares his insights on the current gold market and future innovations he envisions, including developments in Argo Digital Gold's business model. The discussion also covers the state of the U.S. economy, monetary policy, reserve currency status, and financial repression. #gold #centralbanks #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

Silver Price Target: $100, Monster Deficit Expected | Keith Neumeyer

Play Episode Listen Later Aug 2, 2024 27:38

Keith Neumeyer, President and CEO of First Majestic Silver Corp., sits down with Kai Hoffmann for a conversation on the future of silver. Keith believes that silver prices will soar to triple digits and explains what this means for the mining industry. Neumeyer also criticized the efforts of the Silver Institute and stated that, "the silver space does not do a good job in promoting the metal". Tune in to learn more! --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ --- Guest: Keith Neumeyer, President & CEO Company: First Majestic Silver https://www.firstmajestic.com/ Recorded at the Rule Symposium 2024 Check out the recordings of ALL presentations from the Rule Symposium including Grant Williams, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards, Rick Rule and many more! Register here: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumonNaturalResourceInvesting2024#/?affl=SoarFinancial ---

GOLD: Why It Is The Last Resort For Many | Rich Checkan

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 31, 2024 25:16

Rich Checkan, President and COO of Asset Strategies International, provides his expertise on the precious metals market, highlighting the important role gold and silver play in a well-diversified investment portfolio. Topics of discussion also include consumer debt, specifically credit card debt, and the use of precious metals to cover these liabilities. #gold #preciousmetals #investing --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ---

Why We Need $50 SILVER | Philips Baker Silver Institute

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 29, 2024 22:41

Philips Baker, Chairman of the Silver Institute, joins Kai Hoffmann to discuss everything silver. What is affecting the price of silver? What role does the Silver Institute play? What will the silver market look like in the future? Is there a silver deficit? As the former CEO of Hecla Mining, Baker provides strong insights into the silver market, junior mining companies, and more. #silver #silverprice #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

GOLD: Why You Should Be VERY NERVOUS Right NOW! | Adrian Day

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 26, 2024 36:31

Adrian Day warns that a U.S. recession is on the horizon, with the signs becoming harder to ignore. He also points out that unsustainable consumer spending trends are causing debt levels to get out of control, particularly with the increasing use of credit cards and buy-now-pay-later schemes. In our conversation, we also discuss interest rates, the gold market, investment strategies, and much more. #gold #federalreserve #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

100% Legal: Front Run Everybody Into GOLD & Copper NOW! | Matt Geiger

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 24, 2024 26:38

In this interview, Matt Geiger, Managing Partner at MJG Capital, delves into the current market conditions and how various economic and political factors, such as the US Presidential Election, may influence the market. Matt also discusses his recent investment activities, including periods of inactivity and strategic allocation shifts within his portfolio, which is currently weighted 36% towards copper. --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ---

GOLD & Copper: The THREAT Of Overreaching Governments | Joe Mazumdar

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 22, 2024 28:59

Together with Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights, we dive deep into the world of exploration. We discuss some hot topics including overreaching governments being a threat to exploration and mining companies. Is Canada still a Tier 1 jurisdiction? We dive deep into micro world, mining stocks and commodities. #mining #commodities #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

#185 Jim Rickards: We're Probably Already In A Civil War

The Julia La Roche Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 20, 2024 62:16

Jim Rickards returns to the podcast for episode 185 to discuss the macro view and political turmoil in the U.S., including the attempted assassination of former President Trump. This episode was recorded on July 18. Rickards is a New York Times bestselling author of Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and several other best-sellers, including The New Great Depression, Aftermath, The Road to Ruin, Death of Money, The New Case for Gold, and his newest book Sold Out: How Broken Supply Chains, Surging Inflation, and Political Instability Will Sink the Global Economy. An investment advisor, lawyer, inventor, and economist, Rickards has held senior positions at Citibank, Long-Term Capital Management, and Caxton Associates. He is also the Editor of Strategic Intelligence, a widely-read financial newsletter. Links: http://www.jamesrickardsproject.com/ https://twitter.com/JamesGRickards Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction and overview 05:46 The current political landscape and global events 16:49 Trump's path to victory 22:27 Internal dynamics within the Democratic Party 26:26 Discussions of a virtual roll call for Biden's nomination 31:03 Biden withdrawing and Harris becoming the nominee 35:11 The landmine of Congress certification in 2025 50:47 The path towards a recession 56:34 The stock market bubble and concentration risk 59:33 AI

Grant Williams: "Recession Is Coming", "I've been buying GOLD"

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 19, 2024 19:24

Grant Williams explains why gold is your best bet in the coming recession. Learn why gold is a safe investment during economic downturns and how it can protect your wealth. Grant breaks down the current economic outlook, US debt crisis, and why gold is shining bright in the commodities market.In this video, Grant Williams explains why gold is your best bet in the coming recession. Discover why investing in gold can help protect your finances during economic downturns. #gold #recession #investing ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

Central Banks pushing Gold To All-Time Highs! Trump Trade | Joe Cavatoni

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 17, 2024 37:14

It is time for a deep dive into the fundamentals of Gold. We catch up with Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, to discuss what is happening on the ground. ETF buying in the West is still lagging and FED interest rates are just one of many factors for owning gold. The central bank buying continues ... and Idris Elba is in a role of a lifetime. Let's discuss the latest gold price move and gold news. --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ --- Guest: Joseph Cavatoni, Senior Market Strategist Company: World Gold Council https://www.gold.org/ Recorded at the Rule Symposium 2024 Check out the recordings of ALL presentations from the Rule Symposium including Grant Williams, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Jim Rickards, Rick Rule and many more! Register here: https://opptravel.zohobackstage.com/TheRuleSymposiumonNaturalResourceInvesting2024#/?affl=SoarFinancial --- Save the Date DEUTSCHE GOLDMESSE November 21 & 22, 2024 in Frankfurt, Germany www.deutschegoldmesse.com --- Follow Us! Twitter: http://twitter.com/soarfinancial Website: http://www.soarfinancial.com/ Chapters 01:10 Guest Introduction 01:32 Role at World Gold Council 02:24 Gold Marketing Campaigns 03:13 Purpose of Educational Videos 05:19 Energy Transition and Mining 06:03 Gold Performance 07:17 Central Bank Gold Demand 08:02 Geopolitical Factors Affecting Gold 10:13 Managing Portfolio Risk with Gold 11:14 ETF Market Dynamics 13:09 Investor Expectations on Rate Cuts 14:15 Recession Risks 15:02 Coin and Jewelry Demand Trends 16:46 Current Gold Market Dynamics 17:57 Consumer Demand in China 19:27 Investment Trends in India 20:07 Gold vs. Silver Investment 21:52 Costco Gold Sales 23:32 Speculative Factors Affecting Gold Price 24:39 World Gold Council Membership 25:14 Catalyst for Gold Market 27:16 US Debt 29:12 Gold Market Outlook 31:12 Role of World Gold Council in Market Development 33:16 Artisanal Mining and Market Perception 34:24 Expected Gold Price Movements 35:32 Conclusion **Disclaimer:** Some of the links presented might be affiliate links. We might receive a commission if a purchase is made using those links! Unless specifically disclosed, all information available on Soar Financial and its affiliates or partners should be considered as non-commercial in nature. None of the content produced by Soar Financial should be considered an endorsement, offer or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Soar Financial is not registered with any financial or securities regulatory authority in Canada, the US, Europe, or the UK, and does not provide, nor claim to provide, investment advice or recommendations to any consumer of the content that Soar Financial produces and publicizes. Always do your own due diligence and/or consult a qualified legal, tax, or investment professional if personal advice is deemed necessary. Soar Financial and its related companies (including its directors, employees, and representatives) or a connected person may hold equity positions in securities detailed in communications. When this occurs a disclosure will be made. Disclosures on social media will be made using the hashtag #coi (short for conflict of interest). Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective directors, officers, employees, or agents expressly disclaim any liability for losses or damages, whether direct, indirect, special, or consequential, or other consequences, howsoever caused, arising out of any use or reproduction of this site or any decision made or action taken in reliance upon the produced content of Soar Financial, whether authorized or not. By accessing Soar Financial's content, each consumer of Soar Financial content releases Soar Financial, its affiliates, and their respective officers, directors, agents, and employees from all claims and proceedings for such losses, damages, or consequences.

GOLD: The #1 Diversifier Against The US Dollar | Nomi Prins

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 15, 2024 30:24

In this interview with Dr. Nomi Prins key topics discussed include the role of gold as the top diversifier against the US dollar, the current state of the global economy, and the limitations of the Federal Reserve in controlling inflation. Dr. Prins also covers the impact of geopolitical factors on commodities like uranium and copper, the future of nuclear energy, and the implications of political pressures on monetary policy. Join us for an insightful discussion on these critical economic issues. --- Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ---

GOLD: Easy Millionaire Strategy, Debt Lies & Re-Dollarization | Joel Litman

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 12, 2024 40:50

In this interview, financial expert Joel Litman delves into the current state of the economy, investment strategies, and the future of global markets. Filmed at the Rick Rule Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida, Litman offers a deep dive into the misconceptions surrounding U.S. debt, the bifurcation in economic recovery, and why he believes in a bullish outlook for the next 20 years. From the impact of Federal Reserve policies to the enduring strength of the U.S. dollar, Litman's data-driven analysis provides a comprehensive view of what lies ahead for investors and the economy. ------------ Thank you to our #sponsor CONTANGO ORE, Inc. (NYSE American: CTGO) - Developing Alaska's Next Gold Mines. Make sure to pay them a visit: https://www.contangoore.com/ ------------

Jim Rickards: If They Pull This Plug Right Now, There Will be a Reckoning Upon Us

china strategy joe biden ukraine elections middle east conclusion economic dnc conflicts russia ukraine democratic national convention 2024election geopolitical rickards james connor jim rickards jim richards

Play Episode Listen Later Jul 5, 2024 47:05

“The problem now is if you pull the plug, it will be chaos,” warns Jim Richards, New York Times bestselling author. In an exclusive interview with Daniela Cambone, Richards explains that the Democratic Party waited too long and believed President Joe Biden was okay despite occasional gaffes. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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Jim Rickards on Biden's Future, Geopolitical Conflicts, and the 2024 Election

Wealthion

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 4, 2024 26:25

In this episode of Wealthion, James Connor speaks with Jim Rickards, a renowned economist and bestselling author, who dives into the political and economic turmoil shaping the upcoming 2024 elections. Rickards provides his insights on whether President Biden might be replaced before the Democratic National Convention and the implications for the economy and investor sentiment. He also covers the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and China. Rickards states, "Biden's future as the nominee is uncertain." This episode also explores: * The likelihood of Biden being replaced at the DNC. * The geopolitical landscape and its influence on US politics. * The state of the economy heading into the 2024 elections. * Strategies for investors to navigate the political and economic uncertainties. Tune in to hear Rickards' expert analysis and prepare yourself for what lies ahead in the 2024 elections. For more from Jim Richards, check out his newsletter linked here: https://pro.paradigm-press.info/m/2327065 TIMESTAMPS: 00:00 - Introduction 01:25 - Geopolitical turmoil 04:00 - Russia-Ukraine war 13:50 - Economic sanctions impact 16:40 - Biden DNC replacement 19:58 - 60s vs. now comparison 25:23 - Conclusion

504: The Father of Reaganomics, David Stockman Joins Us: Ominous $100 Trillion Debt is Coming

Play Episode Listen Later Jun 3, 2024 48:39

We're joined by President Ronald Reagan's Budget Director, David Stockman. He tells us what real estate investors and everyday people need to know. Stockman served as Reagan's Director of Office, Management and Budget from 1981 to 1985. He tells us to expect higher inflation and interest rates for longer, maybe even the rest of the decade. Don't expect rate cuts for a long time. The US is moving toward an unsustainable debt situation, with $100T in public debt expected within twenty-five years. We have embedded deficits. Learn why the recession has been postponed. David also reveals what will inevitably pull the trigger to potentially start the recession. Hint: Household budgets. Pandemic stimulus programs gave citizens $3T. Half of it has now been spent. He was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone. David Stockman tells a story about President Reagan's personal touch with him. You can subscribe to David Stockman's Contra Corner for free here. Resources mentioned: David Stockman's Contra Corner For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to our Ivory Coast, Keith Whitehill. There are some dire warning signs for the future of our economy. We're joined by none other than the father of Reaganomics. To break it down with us. Today is late. President Ronald Reagan's budget director joins us. When is this perpetually postponed recession coming? Why? Inflation and high interest rates could carry on for the rest of the decade. And what it all means to your finances and real estate today on get Rich education. Robert Syslo (00:00:34) - Since 2014, the powerful get Rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from past real estate, investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show host Keith Wine, who writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad Advisors and delivers a new show every week. Since 2014, there's been millions of listeners downloads and 188 world nations. He has A-list show guests include top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki. Get Rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener. Robert Syslo (00:01:08) - Phone apps build wealth on the go with the get Rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get Rich education podcast or visit get Rich education.com. Corey Coates (00:01:19) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - We're going to drive from Glen Burnie, Maryland, to Glen County, California and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Reinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. We're going bigger picture this week before we talk to President Reagan's money guy in the white House. Understand that today's guest was also one of the founding partners of Blackstone, and they are in the real estate business. You're going to get a lot of deep, uniquely qualified insights today. And I'll tell you what's going on around here. Lately, things have been feeling awfully presidential between last week's program and now this week's program. Hey. Stars and stripes forever. Semper fi. Rah! Now, as the greatest detonation in the history of the world, how in the heck are we, as the United States, going to keep financing our debt now, you can think of a treasury, also known as a bond, as an IOU, as we take on debt to fund our government spending programs. Keith Weinhold (00:02:42) - Really, what we do is issue then these IOUs to the rest of the world and then down the road. We need to pay back these IOU holders, treasuries, holders, whatever we've borrowed with interest on top of that. That's a really simple way to describe how it works. Think of a Treasury as an IOU. Well, we have $9 trillion in treasuries that need to be rolled over at higher interest rates just this year alone. Okay. Well, how does the market look for that sort of thing? Well, a lot like before you decide to sell a piece of real estate, you would want to know how that buyer's market looks. How is the buyer's market for us selling more treasuries, which is basically us issuing more IOUs? How is that world interest level in our treasuries? Well, this is a time when the world is selling treasuries. We're trying to get rid of them. Well, why would they buy more when we keep printing like crazy, debasing the dollars that they will eventually get their treasuries repaid in down the road? Case in point, China is down to just over 700 billion of treasuries that they're holding. Keith Weinhold (00:04:01) - Well, they were 3 trillion not too long ago, more than four times that Russia and Iran sold all of their treasuries. Other countries are shedding them too, like Japan. It gets even worse than that because the number one holder of our own debt is our own fed. And then it gets even worse than that. Yet, because even our own fed is rolling treasuries off of their balance sheet. So who is going to finance this often irresponsible US spending the 10 trillion or $11 trillion every single year for the next ten years that we have obligations toward already, and it looks like all those are going to be at higher interest rates, too. Now, I am not telling you how to think about us as the United States, for example, sending foreign aid to multiple nations. That's up to you to decide whether it's Ukraine or the Middle East or Taiwan that gets political. And that is beyond the scope of GR. We are an investing show. What I'm saying is that backdrop that I just gave you, that's something that you need to take into consideration, is you weigh those foreign aid decision types. Keith Weinhold (00:05:20) - Speaking of getting worse, do we at least have competent decision makers today? Now, as we'll talk to the father of Reaganomics here shortly, someone that served in an earlier era. Here's a clip from this era that really went viral lately, but it's apropos to play it here. This is Jared Bernstein today. He chairs President Joe Biden's Council of Economic Advisers. How much confidence does this instill? And remember, this guy chairs the economic advisers to today's president. Jared Bernstein (00:05:56) - The US government can't go bankrupt because we can print our own money. Voice (00:06:00) - Like you said, they print the dollar. So why? Why does the government even borrow? Jared Bernstein (00:06:04) - Well, the, so the I mean, again, some of this stuff gets some of the language that the, some of the language and concepts are just confusing. I mean, the government definitely prints money and it definitely lends that money, which is why the government definitely prints money. And then it lends that money by, by selling bonds. Is that what they do? They they, the. Jared Bernstein (00:06:34) - Yeah. They, they they sell bonds. Yeah. They sell bonds. Right. Because they sell bonds and people buy the bonds and lend them the money. Yeah. So a lot of times, a lot of times at least to my year with MMT, the, the language and the concepts can be kind of unnecessarily confusing. But there is no question that the government prints money and then it uses that money to so, yeah, I guess I'm just I don't, I can't really, I don't, I don't get it. I don't know what they're talking about. Keith Weinhold (00:07:08) - Well geez. How's that for clarity and confidence from today's major decision makers on our economy? Gosh. Now, in my opinion, back in 2020, our government, they set up the wrong incentive structure to deal with the pandemic. Remember things like the PGP, the Paycheck Protection Program, remember mortgage loan forbearance and the eviction moratorium. See when that type of aid is given, well, then the result is that citizens don't learn that they need to keep some cash handy, and then that behavior that gets rewarded gets repeated in that behavior is handouts. Keith Weinhold (00:07:53) - And then the expectation for more handouts. 56% of Americans don't even have $1,000 for an emergency expense. Well, see, they're not really incentivized to in the future. If in a crisis, everyone just gets another taxpayer funded handout, but then see those same people that got that handout get hurt in the long run. Anyway, with the longer run inflation that the handout created, don't let there be one day of austerity for the least prepared American, I guess. Instead, bail them out and add on to everyone's debt load, which you know that right there. That seems to be the playbook. Like that is the protocol of the day that is not responsible, in my view. Now, the minutes of the latest fed meeting, they said that some fed officials would be open to raising interest rates if inflation doesn't let up. I mean, that news alone that sent stocks plunging like they were riding the Tower of Terror, giving the Dow its worst day in a while. I'll discuss that more with the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, today. Keith Weinhold (00:09:01) - It's the kind of episode that can stretch your thinking here. Now, what is Reaganomics? Well, one thing that you should know is that it's committed to the doctrine of supply side economics. You probably heard that term before. And really what that's all about is lowering taxes, decreasing regulation, and allowing free trade and what was called the Reagan budget. That's something that his budget director Stockman expected would help curtail the welfare state. And he gained a reputation as a tough negotiator for that. He lives on the Upper East Side of Manhattan today, and it's kind of funny with macroeconomic discussions. You'll notice something here, the word million, that doesn't even come up that much anymore. It's simply a number that is too small. It is more like billion and trillion. And hey, let's see if the term three orders of magnitude above trillion comes up today. Quadrillion, or even the one after that quintillion. Is that where we're going next? We'll see. before we meet David Simon, I've gotten more questions about something, because the national average bank account pays less than 1% on your savings. Keith Weinhold (00:10:18) - And where do you really get a decent yield on your savings, even beyond the 5% in an online only savings account or a CD, which that does not outpace true inflation? For years now, I've reliably been getting 8%. What I do is keep my dollars in a private liquidity fund. You can do this to your cash generates up to an 8% return. The minimum investment amount is just 25 K, and you keep getting paid until you decide that you want your money back. And the private liquidity fund has a decade plus track record, and they've always paid their investors 100% in full and on time. And I would know this because I am an investor with them myself. So see what it feels like to earn 8%. A lot of other great listeners are any investing involves risk, even dollars at a brick and mortar bank. So to learn more, just text the word family to 66866. Learn more about the liquidity fund. Get 8% interest. Just do it right now while you're thinking about it. Keith Weinhold (00:11:23) - Text family to 66866. Let's meet David Stockman. A Wall Street and Washington insider and Harvard grad. Today's guest is a former two time congressman from Michigan, a prolific author, and he is none other than the man known as the father of Reaganomics. He was indeed President Ronald Reagan's budget advisor. Welcome to the show, David Stockman. David Stockman (00:11:54) - Great to be with you. And, that was a while back. But I think there's some lessons from that time that we would be well advised to try to apply today, that's for sure. Keith Weinhold (00:12:05) - Well, it's an illustrious title that you'll never shake. It's a pleasure to have you here. And David is a real estate investing show. At times we need to step back and look at the bigger picture. And now on the economy, one seems to get a different answer depending on who they speak with. You have a highly qualified opinion. What do both investors and citizens need to know today about the condition of the American economy? David Stockman (00:12:29) - I don't think the outlook is very promising, but I think it's important to understand what that means for real estate investors, because the fact is, if you're in real estate and I know many of your listeners or viewers are very knowledgeable and sophisticated, there's really two ways to look at real estate. David Stockman (00:12:49) - One is as a property that generates a flow of cash or income that is highly reliable, and that you can count on and produces a rate of return on the invested capital that's attractive. That's one way. The second way is that if you invest at the right time, when perhaps interest rates are falling and therefore multiples or cap rates are becoming more attractive and property values are rising rapidly, mainly because of easy money and lower interest rates, then there's a huge opportunity for capital gains. As another way of generating return on capital. But those are two obviously very different tracks. The capital gains route by old invest, improve flip flop the gain and move on or the, you know, income based rent and earnings based, approach to property. Now, I think the reason I went through this is pretty elementary, of course, is that the macro environment is very different between the first strategy and the second strategy. And therefore, the important thing to understand about the macro environment is which environment are you in and is it conducive to strategy a the income strategy or b the capital gains strategy? I would say right now we're totally in an incomes strategy environment, the first route. David Stockman (00:14:34) - And that's because as we've gone through several decades of easy money, of rapidly rising asset values, of ultra low interest rates, very high multiples, in terms of property values to income that has generated trillions and trillions of capital gains for smart real estate investors. But I think we're out of that environment, and we're in an environment now where we're stuck with massive public debt and deficits. We're stuck with a, central bank that is, basically painted itself into a corner, created so much fiat credit, generated so much liquidity into the economy that now it will be struggling with inflation for years to come. Which means, notwithstanding Wall Street's constant belief that rate cuts are coming tomorrow, there won't be rate cuts for a long time to come. And what we're facing, therefore, there is likely higher rates for longer. A environment in which property values are flat if not declining, and therefore the capital gains route is not going to work very well. But if you have good properties with good tenants and good cash flows and, rental flows, real estate mine works out pretty well. David Stockman (00:16:05) - But you have to understand the macro environment. And that's one of the things that I work on daily when I, publish my daily newsletter, which is called, David Stockman's Contra Corner. Keith Weinhold (00:16:19) - You can learn more about Contra Corner, David's blog, before we're done today. David, you have a lot of interesting things to say. There we are in this environment where rates have been higher, longer. It sounds like you believe that is going to continue to be the. Case is rate cuts will be postponed is a little more difficult question. It's some crystal ball stuff. But can you tell us more about that? What can we expect for inflation in interest rates for the rest of this 2020s decade, which has about six years to go? David Stockman (00:16:48) - There's going to be high rates for most of this decade because we have so much inflation and excess demand built into the economy. We really went overboard, especially after 2020 with the pandemic lockdowns and then these massive stimulus program, something like $6 trillion of added stimulus, was injected into the economy in less than 12 months. David Stockman (00:17:16) - That created a undertow of inflation that is still with us. And despite all the hopeful commentary that comes from Wall Street, if you look at it year to date, I don't look at just the CPI because the headline number is somewhat volatile and can be pushed and pulled a lot from a month to month based on nonrecurring conditions. But if you look at something called the 16% trimmed mean CPI, it's just the same CPI, but it takes out the lowest 8%, the highest 8% of price observations each month out of the thousands in the market basket. What it does is basically takes the extreme volatility out of the top and the bottom, and gives you a trend that is more reliable if you're looking like on a quarter by quarter or year by year or even multi year basis, well, I mentioned this is important because the trim means CPI is still running at about 4.3% during the first four months of this year to date. That's not a victory over inflation. That's double what the fed says his target is. And frankly, the Fed's target is a little bit phony. David Stockman (00:18:35) - I mean, what's so great about 2% inflation if you're a saver and your savings are, you know, shrinking by 30% over the course of a decade, so they're going to have a tremendous wrestling match with inflation, not just for a few more months, but I think for several more years in this decade, I don't see the federal funds rate, which is kind of the benchmark rate for overnight money coming down below 5% very soon, or if at all. And that's because with inflation running at 4% or better, if you have a 5% money market rate, you're barely getting a return on capital, especially if you factor in taxes. You know, it's like it's a rounding error and that doesn't work over time. I mean, you're not going to get long term savings. You're not going to get long term capital investment. If the return is after inflation and taxes are either non-existent or negative, as they've been for quite a while. So even though everybody would like to hope we're going back to the good old days of 0% over 90 money or 1% money, which they got so used to over the last couple of decades. David Stockman (00:19:55) - It was bad policy. It wasn't sustainable. It caused a huge amount of bubbles and distortions in our economy. But once we finally got to the end of that in March 2022, when the fed had to finally pivot and say, yeah, inflation isn't transitory, it's, embedded, we got to do something about it. People think we're going right back to where we were, and that's the key thing to understand. We are not going right back to where we were, in part because of all this inflation business I've talked about, but also in part because they got so used to borrowing money on Capitol Hill and practically zero interest rates that they are now, you know, they have built in deficits of 2 trillion or more a year. And, we are going to be pushing into the bond pits, massive amounts of new government debt. There's no consensus to do anything about it. You know, if the Republicans talk about reforming the entitlements, the Democrats say you're throwing grandma out the snow. If the Democrats talk about raising revenue, the Republicans talked about, you're going to get slaughtered with higher taxes. David Stockman (00:21:12) - And then everybody's for more wars and more defense and the bigger and bigger national security budget. And that's all she wrote. If you don't do with revenue, you don't do it national defense and entitlements. The rest of it is rounding errors. And so we're stuck with these massive additions to the debt. Now, everybody knows the public debt. Is 34 trillion. Ready? Yeah. What I'd say they don't understand is that by the end of this decade, you ask about the decade, right? Will we close to 60 trillion of debt. And, if you look at the last CBO, projection they do every year at long term projection, and CBO actually is more optimistic than it is warranted in any way. In other words, their long term assumptions I call rosy scenario. There's no more recessions for the next couple of decades. Inflation is well-behaved, interest rates stay low. Full employment lasts indefinitely and forever. Well, this doesn't happen. Look at the real world. Over the last 20 or 30 years, we've been all over the lot. David Stockman (00:22:18) - So if you look at the CBO forecast, which is I'm just saying here is exceedingly optimistic. They never are the less are projecting that the public debt and they don't even write this number down in their report because it's too scary, will be $100 trillion before the middle of this century. Keith Weinhold (00:22:41) - That's a. David Stockman (00:22:42) - Trillion. Yeah. Now, if you ask people today who are market savvy, I like a lot of your viewers. Where are the Treasury bills, notes and bonds today? Well, if you average it all out, it's about 5%. I don't think it's going to come down much. It'll vary a little bit up and down over time, but let's just say it stays at 5%. That means the carry cost of the public debt of a couple decades will be 5 trillion a year. The interest okay. It's staggering. That's almost as much as the whole federal budget is spending this today at, you know, about 6.6 6.7 trillion. So that's where we're heading, a massive debt crisis because they built in a structural deficit that the politicians and I call it the unite party. David Stockman (00:23:33) - They fight about silly things, but they agree on the big things which are leading to this outcome. The unit party has no ability to do anything about this structural deficit or the march from the 34 trillion that we're at today to 60 trillion by the end of the decade, and 100 trillion of public debt by mid-century. Now, for a real estate investor, that's probably the most important number you're going to hear. You know, at least this week or maybe this month or even this year, because what it means is that the amount of new government debt flowing into the bond pits, that'll have to be financed and that can't be monetized by the fed anymore because there's too much inflation, is going to put constant, enormous pressure upward on interest rates. And of course, higher interest rates mean lower property values. That's just basic real estate math. That's the environment we're heading into, which means good properties with good income and good rental flows are really the only way to go. Keith Weinhold (00:24:55) - Yeah, well, there's an awful lot there. Keith Weinhold (00:24:57) - And with this persistent higher inflation that you expect, the way I think about it is the higher the rate of inflation, the more that moves a person's dollars out of a savings account and instead out onto the risk curve. Well, David alluded to a problematic economy. We're going to come back and talk about more of those warning signs and what you can do about it. You're listening to Get Resuscitation, the father of Reaganomics and Ronald Reagan's budget director, David Stockman, I'm your host, Keith Reinhold. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge Lending Group and MLS for 256 injury history from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge. Personally, they'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. Speaker 7 (00:26:06) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. Keith Weinhold (00:26:23) - Welcome back to Get Ready. So we're talking with the father of Reaganomics. His name is David Stockman, President Reagan's budget advisor. David, you've been talking about a problematic economy and places we can look and the outcomes that that can create. Why don't we talk about some more of those where we're here in a period where we feel like it's an official recession postponed, for example, are there other places that we should be looking? Is it the sustained inverted yield curve that we had for almost two years, the longest one ever, and a Great Recession predictor? Or is it that we're on the precipice of implosion from a debt to GDP ratio that's at 122%. It actually spiked to 133% when Covid first hit. Or for example, is it something and you've already touched on it a bit, is it more of that federal spending on our debts, interest payments alone each year, which had almost $900 billion for that interest line item that now even exceeds the massive $800 billion that we spend each year on national defense, or should we be looking at somewhere else? So what's out there that's really problematic and what's overblown? David Stockman (00:27:28) - Okay. David Stockman (00:27:29) - That's great. And all of those things you mentioned you should be looking at, it depends on your time frame. But I think on the initial question, where is this postponed recession? Why hasn't that happened? The place to look is somewhere that I think most Wall Street analysts aren't focused on, but they should be. And that's a series published by the Federal Reserve that tracks household balance sheets, in other words, liabilities and assets. But there's a particular series that I think is critically important to look at, and it's basically bank deposits, checking account savings accounts plus money market funds. This is all the liquid cash accounts of the household sector, not long term investments in real estate or stocks or bonds, but the short term money. It's the spendable money that households have now, what happened during the pandemic and lockdowns. And then the 6 trillion Is stems that were injected into the economy, like some kind of fiscal madness was going on in Washington, created a total aberration in the amount of cash in the economy, in the household sector, in these accounts that I just mentioned, normally right before the lockdown started and the stimulus was injected, you know, the level of cash accounts was about 12 trillion. David Stockman (00:29:00) - Within two years it was up to 18 trillion. And normally that cash balance grows about the same rate as the economy. In other words, as incomes go up, people save a small share of their income that goes into various bank accounts. There tends to be a lock step relationship. But what happened during that two year period was there was so much extra cash sent out to the households with the $2,000 checks in the $600 a week extra stimulus money, and then the, trillions that went, you know, for things like the Small Business Administration loan program, which was all forgivable, was about almost upwards of $1 trillion. You know, we could itemize all the others. But this enormous government, unusual cash flow into the economy added to these bank accounts enormously. And then something else happened. The geniuses in Washington, led by Doctor Fauci, decided to shut down half of the service sector, the economy. I'm talking with restaurants and bars and gyms, malls and movies and and all the rest of it. David Stockman (00:30:09) - So all of a sudden, the normal money that people would have been spending on the service venues, which is a big part of total spending, was stopped. It was kind of forced into artificial savings, sort of government mandated savings. Now, if you put the two together, there was about 2 trillion, extra transfer payments sent out to the public during that two year period. And there was a little over a trillion of normal service spending, restaurants in, etc. that didn't happen because there was a closed sign on the door, compliments of Doctor Fauci, or people were scared to death to go out because, you know, they created all this fear that Covid was some form of black death, which it really wasn't for 95% of the population. In any event, if you put the extra free stuff from the government, 2 trillion and the for savings because of these lockdowns, trillion, you have 3 trillion of unusual cash that flowed into the economy on top of the normal production. Income and profits and spending that would have otherwise gone on. David Stockman (00:31:26) - Now that 3 trillion temporarily ended up in this account, that I'm just talking about the cash balances of the household sector and its peak, there was about 2.8 trillion extra compared to what would been be the normal case in a regular economy. In a normal economy, that money has been slowly spent down by the household sector, even as the fed has tried to put the screws to the economy. In other words, there was so much extra cash in the system that even as the fed raised interest rates from 0 to 5% and did their darndest to slow things down, all of that excess that was built up during the pandemic period was available to spend. It was spent. And here's the key point. About half of it is now been spent. In other words, there's only about a trillion and a half of the nearest 3 trillion left. Now that is what's delayed the recession. If that big, massive 3 trillion nest egg had been there and the fed began to push rates up as it normally did in a normal cycle, we would have been in recession months ago. David Stockman (00:32:41) - But what has delayed or deferred the recession is this, cushion, this huge macro piggybank of cash that the government inadvertently or adversely is the case may be generated, during the pandemic period. So that's new. See that? Nobody looks at that because normally it's not a factor. You know, the cash balances are a pretty, prosaic, neutral part of the economy. They're not where you look for the leading edge of where the cycle was going or where new developments may turn up tomorrow. But this time, because of this total aberration of what happened to government transfer payments plus the lockdowns, we have a, X factor, let's call it in the macro picture that is confusing people. It's leading a lot of people to abdicate this no landing scenario. In other words, you know, there's not going to be a recession. We're just going to go on to bigger and better things. And, the fed will get inflation under control and then we can be back to happy times again. No, they're missing. David Stockman (00:33:56) - The elephant in the room is this massive aberrational unusual one time cash balance that was, generated by these policies. And that still has a little ways to go now. I think at the rate it's being run down, you can almost calculate it a couple hundred billion dollars, a quarter sometime next year, all of that extra cash will be out of the system. And then people will be back to spending only what they're earning. And frankly, earnings they're not. I'm talking about wage and salary earnings, are advancing barely at the inflation rate at the present time. So when we get back to about zero real growth in earnings, we're going to finally see the recession. Keith Weinhold (00:34:45) - I think one of the big takeaways here is that all these artificial economic injections really take time to unwind. David Stockman (00:34:56) - Exactly. You have to look at, you know, they always say, well, when the government changes policy, fiscal policy, you tighten or you loosen or monetary policy they raise or lower interest rates. They got QE or they got cute putting money in or taking money out that there's lag and lead times in all of this. David Stockman (00:35:18) - The problem is, none of the great economic gurus who talk about this really know whether the lag time is 12 months, 25 months, 50 or 5, and it varies. I mean, the circumstance has changed so much in a world GDP of 104 trillion, a domestic economy with 28 trillion of GDP, and all the complex factors that are moving back and forth in today's world, especially as it's enabled by technology and global trade and the internet and all the rest of it, nobody knows the lag times. And as a result, it's very hard to predict when the, brown stuff is going to hit the fan, so to speak. On the other hand, you don't have to know the exact date. You really need to understand the direction, the flow of things. And if you're in an environment that isn't sustainable because you're borrowing like crazy or interest rates or artificially. Low or stock price multiples are way the L2 ie or cap rates on real estate or you know, abnormally low. Then what you have to say is we're going to a different state. David Stockman (00:36:35) - It's not going to be as conducive as the current state, and we have to be prepared for it, even if we are not sure whether that's 12 months from now or 24 months. But it's going to change. So one thing you can be sure of, there is a famous economist back in my day when I worked on Capitol Hill earlier on, he was Nixon's chief economic adviser in the early 70s. And he famously formulated an aphorism, I guess, which said anything that is unsustainable tends to stop. Okay, that's what I know about the lag times. We're in unsustainable financial, fiscal and monetary environment. And the trends that it has given rise to are going to stop and and not in a good way. Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - He even fed Chair Jerome Powell has confessed as much as that. This situation is indeed unsustainable, the exact word that he used. Well, David, this has been great in winding down as Ronald Reagan's budget director. Can you share any anecdote, story or quote from you spending time personally with Ronald Reagan? And the reason I ask is because he is perhaps the most revered president of the past few generations. Keith Weinhold (00:37:52) - That might mean a lot to our listeners here. David Stockman (00:37:54) - He should be revered, and not only because he was a great president and a great communicator, and did a lot of important things in policy. Some of them got implemented, and a lot of them were frustrated by Washington and the politicians and the Democrats and everybody else. But also, he was a great human being. And my story about that was when I was budget director, in the fifth year of the Reagan administration, we had our first child, and my wife was in the hospital. At that point in time, President Reagan was in Europe on a very important big international, series of meetings. But, somebody in the white House told him that our daughter had been born. And so he took the time out of his schedule for a call from Germany, the hospital where my wife was, and said he would like to talk to her and, congratulate us on our new arrival. But my wife was in a room with another, a new mother. David Stockman (00:38:53) - She the other person answered the phone and she said to my wife, there's some joker on the phone with President Reagan. And sure enough, he was there. and he took the time to congratulate my wife. And, so that's the kind of, person he was. He really was a great human being. Keith Weinhold (00:39:13) - Wow. Yeah. That really shows that he can still be warm and heartfelt, even while doing some key international negotiations there. Potentially. Well, we mentioned it earlier. I can tell you, the audience, that David is a regular author and contributor to his Contra Corner blog and letter, and you can get access to that for free. This is information coming from the father of Reaganomics to you. If you think you would find it a value. David, tell us how our audience can connect with you there. David Stockman (00:39:44) - Just Google David Stockman Contra corner I publish, I have a website, issues a newsletter every day. It comes automatically in the email. I also have a Substack version. You can sign up for either one, the email from my site or from Substack. David Stockman (00:40:02) - And every day we try to publish something on these issues that we've been talking about. One day it might be Wall Street, another day it might be Capitol Hill, another day it might be, you know, the war in Ukraine. All of these things matter. All of these things influence the environment that investors have to function in. So we try to comment on a variety of those issues based on, you know, the long experience that I've had, both not only in Washington, but also I was on Wall Street, for about 20 years. I was one of the founding partners of Blackstone, for instance. And we were in the real estate business in a major way, even then. Keith Weinhold (00:40:44) - Well, we absolutely love that. And I sure am appreciative of your time. It was great connecting with you. And thanks for being on the program today, David. David Stockman (00:40:53) - Very good. Enjoyed it. Keith Weinhold (00:41:01) - Yeah. Deep insights from the father of Reaganomics. Stockman thinks we'll be struggling with inflation for years to come. Keith Weinhold (00:41:08) - There won't be rate cuts for a long time. He sees real estate values as flat or declining, so have good tenants with steady income streams. Of course, in our favoured real estate segment here, residential 1 to 4 units where you can get 30 year fixed rate debt. Higher mortgage rates tend to correlate with higher prices, just like it has for the last three years and almost every period before that too. But there could be more pain for the commercial sector then, and assets that are tied to floating rate debt. And if you're aligned with David Stockman on that, you might want to look at your helocs, because after a fixed rate period, their rates tend to float along with the fed funds rate. So be cautious with Helocs and ask David for specifics. He doesn't see the federal funds rate coming down below 5% anytime soon, and you probably know that is the interest rate that a whole bunch of other interest rates are based off of. And that rate is currently at about 5.3%. By the way, there is projected to be more than 100 t more than $100 trillion of public debt before the middle of this century. Keith Weinhold (00:42:22) - That's less than 25 years away. I mean, these figures just become unfathomable sometimes. Pandemic wrought inflation that really occurred due to this greater supply of dollars that was introduced chasing a reduced supply of goods. And there were fewer goods because people got paid to stay at home not producing anything. Plus, what had been produced often could not be shipped either. David discussed the 16% trimmed mean CPI, and I've got to say, as much as I am a student devotee in studying inflation, I had never heard of that from his vantage point to find recession signs, look at household balance sheets and what's delayed the recession is that those pandemic measures put an extra 3 trillion bucks into households, and households still have about 1.5 trillion left to spend, which could further delay a recession. He projects that it's sometime next year that all of that extra cash will be out of the system. When you talk to how many people got this recession predictions so horribly wrong? Back in October 2022, Bloomberg Economics forecast a 100% chance of a recession by the following fall, which is almost a year ago now. Keith Weinhold (00:43:48) - Well, a 100% chance that left no room for anything else to happen. And they really whiffed on that one. Now, you know, I've got to add something here. A personal note if I can, but I'll give you a lesson along with it. And that is that at times like today, where I found myself one degree of separation from one of the most revered presidents in all of American history, I sometimes have some difficulty understanding how I keep having the opportunity to share time with people like today's guest. Now, I'm certainly not a PhD economist. And in fact, on the flip side, I've also never been a person that's been so poor and destitute that I was dying of hunger. But I do come from a modest place. When I flew the coop and left my parents home, I rented my first pathetic place to live a $325 a month pool house in the back of my landlord's property at 852 Spruce Avenue in Westchester, Pennsylvania. Yeah, a pathetic little pool house right next to the landlord's swimming pool. Keith Weinhold (00:45:04) - I mean, I was living really pathetically there for a while as I was struggling just to do things like find gainful employment and figure out the world and find a steady income. Yeah, it was 325 a month plus electric and the one small heater that was there, it was electric and it was really expensive to run. And on the coldest days, it wouldn't even adequately heat my pathetic little pool house that I ended up living in for 18 months. And just because I couldn't figure a way out of that situation for a while, I mean, I was too ashamed to ever bring a girl back there to that sad pool house. It was just one sink for the whole place. Combined kitchen and bathroom sink in the bathroom. I mean, most of my friends, they got their driver's license at age 16 and they soon had their own car. I didn't own a car until I was aged 22 or 23, and it's not because I lived in an urban area and walked. Everywhere use public transit there in Pennsylvania. Keith Weinhold (00:46:02) - It just took me a long time to afford a beater car and pay for insurance. I really needed a car and couldn't afford one. So really my point here is that sometimes I have to wonder how I got here from there. And I think what it is is taking an interest in real estate and investing. And despite just having a humble bachelor's degree in geography, it's really about becoming an autodidact, meaning self-taught. And it's easy to teach yourself when you find what interests you. And let me point to two other things besides adopting an auto didactic ethic to help me turn the corner into being in a place where I can have conversations like the one that I've had today. It was getting around aspirational friends. Like I've mentioned before, that showed me how I can start with a bang buy with little money. On my first home, I could put a 3.5% down payment on a fourplex, live in one unit and rent out the other three. And I will give myself some credit for doing those things. And then really, the third thing is that stroke of luck element, like just 4% of world inhabitants have been. Keith Weinhold (00:47:15) - I was one of that 4% that was born in the United States. And then I had two great, married, stable, supportive parents to cultivate the right environment for me. And well, today was just one of those days where I sort of nudged myself and I'm glad that it happened. Most importantly, I trust that you got value from today's show and that you do every single week here. Check out David Stockman's Contra Corner. Next week, we'll look for signs of distress in real estate as we delve inside the foreclosure market and how you can find discounted deals there. Until then, Idaho's Keith Wayne hold don't quit your day trip. Speaker 8 (00:48:02) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. The. Keith Weinhold (00:48:30) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Keith Weinhold (00:48:34) - Get rich education.com.

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Jim Rickards Warns Real Danger is Not U.S. Treasuries Collapsing but Something Far Worse

Play Episode Listen Later May 30, 2024 44:24

Russia could retaliate by freezing the entire Western clearance system, warns Jim Richards, New York Times bestselling author. In an exclusive interview with Daniela Cambone, Richards explains that if Western countries seize Russian assets, Russia could sue Euroclear, the largest clearing, settlement, and custody organization in Europe, to recover damages. Questions on Protecting Your Wealth with Gold & Silver? Schedule a Strategy Call Here ➡️ https://calendly.com/itmtrading/podcast or Call 866-349-3310

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498: Will Population Decline OBLITERATE Real Estate?

A StoneWall's Perspective Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Apr 22, 2024 47:01

If properties are empty from population decline, they'll lose value and rent. If this happens, then what's the timeline? Richard Vague, the PA Governor-appointed Secretary of Banking and Securities from 2020-2023, joins us. US and world birth rates keep declining. As population declines, per capita GDP often increases. Richard believes that inequality will widen. Most models show the US population increasing for several decades. A median model is 342M today up to 383M in 2054. Opposite of what the Fed thinks, Richard believes that lower interest rates can quell today's persistent inflation. The US has had 9 instances of high inflation. It's often spurred by wars, which create shortages. I tell Richard about GRE's Inflation Triple Crown and ask his opinion. Real estate values rise as debt-to-GDP rises. I point-blank ask Richard if an economic crisis is imminent. Resources mentioned: Follow Richard Vague: Join.TychosGroup.org For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments. You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Will you please leave a review for the show? I'd be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review” Top Properties & Providers: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREmarketplace.com/Coach Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE' to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Keith's personal Instagram: @keithweinhold Complete episode transcript: Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to GRE! I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. The phenomenon of population decline is spreading throughout the world. Will that come to the US and obliterate real estate then? A bit of a debate on the affliction of inflation and what this all means to real estate today on get rich education. When you want the best real estate and finance info. The modern internet experience limits your free articles access, and it's replete with paywalls. And you've got pop ups and push notifications and cookies. Disclaimers are. At no other time in history has it been more vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that actually adds no hype value to your life? See, this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor and it's to the point to get the letter. It couldn't be more simple. Text GRE to 66866. And when you start the free newsletter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate course completely free. It's called the Don't Quit Your Day dream letter and it wires your mind for wealth. Keith Weinhold (00:01:18) - Make sure you read it. Text GRE to 66866. Text GRE to 66866. Corey Coates (00:01:30) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. Keith Weinhold (00:01:46) - We're going to drive from Lake Winnebago, Wisconsin to Mono Lake, California, and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get Rich education. Real estate is obviously a strong, proven store of value. Now, what's interesting is that most economists agree that money should be three things a medium of exchange, a unit of account, and a store of value. Well, please don't take offense here. This can sound a little crude, but there's one thing to call those that use dollars as a store of value, and that is poor. How is a dollar a store of value when you've had 20% plus cumulative inflation over the last three years alone, the dollar is a poor store of value. We're going to get into inflation with our other esteemed guest and gubernatorial appointee today. He has some opinions on inflation, and you may very well feel that I poke him on this topic today. Keith Weinhold (00:02:58) - I'll also get his input on our inflation Triple Crown concept, where real estate helps you win with inflation three ways at the same time. But first, he and I are going to discuss the specter of population decline. And well, it's not always a specter to people because some feel that the world is better off with fewer people, environmentalists and others. Japan's native born population is falling at a rate of almost 100 people per hour. Yeah, you heard that right. Well, is that coming to the United States and how bad would that be for real estate? Before we go on with those discussions about population decline and then inflation, here's something cool. Is your first language Spanish, or do you have any Spanish speaking family or friends? If you do, you're in luck! I'm proud to announce that our real estate Pays five ways video course is now available in Spanish and it is free. Yes, all five course videos leverage depreciation, cash flow, ROA, tax benefits and inflation profiting. All broken down by me in Spanish. Keith Weinhold (00:04:15) - You can see those five videos. And again they're free at get rich education. Comment espanol tell to familia e amigos. That's all right there on the page at get Rich education. Com slash espanol. And hey, if you're a business owner or decision maker and would like to advertise on our platform, well, we'd like to check you out first and look at this slowly. Oftentimes I use the product or service myself. Get rich. Education is ranked in the top one half of 1% of listened to podcasts globally, per lesson notes on air every single week since 2014. Some say that we were the first show to finally, clearly explain how real estate makes ordinary people wealthy. For advertising information and inquiries, visit get Rich education.com/ad let's get rich education compered. Today it's the return of a terrific guest. This week's guest was with us last year. He's an economic futurist, keynote speaker, and popular author. He's the former secretary of banking and securities for the Great Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Today, he runs a group that predicts financial crises called Tycho's. Keith Weinhold (00:05:40) - That's really interesting. Joining us from Philadelphia today. Hey, it's great to welcome back Richard Vague. Richard Vague (00:05:47) - Thank you so much for having me. It's real privilege. Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - Vague is spelled vague u e just like it sounds. If you're listening in the audio only. Richard also has a YouTube channel where, among other things, he discusses topics like population decline and inflation. Two things that we'll get into today. But before that, Richard, how exactly do you get tapped by the governor of Pennsylvania to have been appointed his banking secretary? Anyway? How does that really happen? Richard Vague (00:06:16) - Well, I served under Governor Thomas Wolf, a superb governor here at Pennsylvania. We kind of were both very familiar with each other, and I had already written a number of books on banking crises, including The Next Economic Disaster and A Brief History of Doom. And he had read those, and so much to my surprise, he showed up in my office one day and asked me if I'd consider it. Keith Weinhold (00:06:40) - Wow, that is really cool. Keith Weinhold (00:06:42) - All right. You kind of led with your writing in your books for making that happen. Richard, here's a big question that I have for you. At 8.1 billion people today is Earth's overpopulated or underpopulated? Richard Vague (00:06:58) - Well, there's a lot of very valid points on both sides of that. You know, there are a number of folks who decry the level of population we have because of its destructive impact on the environment. And there's a lot of folks that note that it's population growth that really has made our economic growth so vibrant. So there's a real contention on that issue. We tend not to take a position, but what we do know is as world population growth is slowing, which it clearly is, that is going to make economic growth much more challenging in a whole lot of places around the world, some of which you're actually starting to see population declines, like China. Keith Weinhold (00:07:46) - I want to get to that slowing growth in a moment. We talk about overpopulation versus under population. Some in the overpopulation camp thinking the world has too many people they're referred to as Malthusian, was named for Thomas Malthus, who in 1798 he said the world would exceed its agricultural carrying capacity and there was going to be mass starvation. Keith Weinhold (00:08:09) - Malthus was wrong. He didn't consider technological advancements. So I guess my point is the future can be really difficult to predict. Richard Vague (00:08:18) - Yeah. Without question. You know, the big innovation came in the early 1900s when we figured out how to synthetically manufacture of things like fertilizer, which allowed arable land area to increase dramatically. It kind of took them out of this equation off the table. Keith Weinhold (00:08:36) - Yes. With the mechanization of harvesting and the engineering of foods, there sure have been a lot of advancements there to help feed more people. And yeah, Richard, you talk about population decline. Of course, the world population overall is still growing, but its rate of growth is declining. So before we talk about the United States, you mentioned China. Why don't we discuss population decline more in global terms, where even nations like India are already struggling to exceed the replacement birth rate of 2.1? Richard Vague (00:09:10) - Yeah, I mean, it's a phenomenon that, you know, we haven't faced or perhaps even thought of for a couple hundred years because population growth accelerated so dramatically with the Industrial Revolution. Richard Vague (00:09:22) - We've really not known anything but rapid growth. And frankly, it's easier to grow businesses. And the economy is old. But now we're seeing places like China, Japan, Germany that are facing population declines in places like India, which, as you said, is comparatively a younger country. Nevertheless, facing this prospect as well, then in 1980, the average age in the US was 30. Today it's 38. In Germany I believe it's 48. So the world is getting old in a way that it had not previously in the industrial revolutionary period. Keith Weinhold (00:10:03) - I think a lot of people are aware that many parts of Europe, Japan, South Korea are in population decline or they're set up for population decline. But yes, some of these other nations that we think of as newer nations or growing nations, including India, are not forecast to. Grow in, Richard. Are we really down? Of course. There are a number of outliers. Are we down mostly to Africa that still have the high birth rates? Richard Vague (00:10:29) - As the world has become more urban, the need for more kids has declined. Richard Vague (00:10:35) - It's in an urban environment, become an expense rather than a benefit. So that alone accounts for the deceleration. And then you have folks that are getting married later, having kids later, and you simply can't have as many kids when those two things are true. So it's a combination of events, and there aren't that many places left that have higher birth rates. And even in Africa it's declining or decelerating. So the world's just moving in that direction. Keith Weinhold (00:11:06) - Yeah. It's really once we see the urbanization trend in a nation, what lags behind that are slowing birth rates, oftentimes birth rates that don't even meet death rates in some places. It kind of goes back to the Thomas Malthus thing again, if you will. When you don't have a family farm, you don't need nine kids to milk the cows and shuck the corn and everything else like that. You might live in a smaller urban apartment. Richard Vague (00:11:33) - But we're all just has it been thinking about this issue? And it's upon us now, and it's going to change everything from governments to handling debts to infrastructure to growth itself. Richard Vague (00:11:48) - So we need to start thinking about this issue much more deeply than we have. Keith Weinhold (00:11:54) - Is there any way that an economy can grow with a declining population, and how bad will it get? Richard Vague (00:12:02) - An economy will obviously struggle to grow if the population is declining, but the per capita GDP and increase as population declines. And in fact, we might see that early on in a population decline situation. I think that's actually been true in Japan over the last few years. The population is down, but GDP per capita is actually increasing slightly. So I think it's longer term. When you talk about trying to service the debt that we have amassed with the smaller population, that we're really going to have issues. Keith Weinhold (00:12:41) - Talk to us more about that. The servicing the debt part of a declining population. Richard Vague (00:12:48) - The debt doesn't shrink on its own, you know, so it tends to grow because, you know, it's accruing interest. Keith Weinhold (00:12:54) - It always seems to go one direction. Richard Vague (00:12:56) - It always pretty much only goes in one direction. So it's pretty simple. Richard Vague (00:13:00) - If you have growing debt and I'm talking about public debt and private debt, and you have a declining base to service that, you have more people in retirement who are not paying as much in the way of taxes. It's going to increase the challenge, and it may in fact, increase it considerably. As we look at a few decades. Keith Weinhold (00:13:21) - We need productivity to pay down debt that's more difficult to do in the declining population. We talk about technological advancements, some things that we cannot foresee. Did you sort of lead on to the fact that some of this might help us be more productive, even in a declining population, whether that's machine learning or robotics or AI? What are your thoughts there? Richard Vague (00:13:45) - That's something that's been predicted for quite some time. You know, if we look back not too far ago, economists were wondering what we were going to do with all of our free time, right? Because, you know, automate. And this goes back to the 20s and 30s and 40s what we do with all our free time. Richard Vague (00:14:01) - So we again have conversations along those lines. You know, it's not inconceivable that we could all be sitting there, you know, sipping our Mai tais, and the machines could be doing all the work for us. And servicing debt might be easy in that scenario, I doubt it. I don't think that's what's going to happen. Keith Weinhold (00:14:19) - The more technology advances, the more complex society gets. That continues to create jobs in places where we cannot see them. I mean, case in point here, in the year 2024, we're more technologically advanced than we've ever been in human history, obviously. Yet here in the United States, we have more open jobs than we even do people to fill them. Richard Vague (00:14:39) - Yeah. And I think one of the things that all of this does is increase the march of inequality. You have folks that master the technology become engineers, software engineers and the like that are going to be the huge beneficiaries of these trends. But folks that don't have the skill sets aren't going to benefit from these trends. Richard Vague (00:15:01) - And even though in aggregate, we may continue to see per capita GDP increase, our track record over the last few decades would suggest that inequality will increase just as markedly as it has in the past, so we'll have some societal issues to face. Keith Weinhold (00:15:19) - That's concerning as inflation. Continues to exacerbate inequality simultaneously, which we'll talk about later. But population decline is of concern to us as real estate investors because of course, we need rent paying tenants. So this could be pretty concerning to some. You've probably seen a lot of the same models that I have, Richard, let me know. In the United States, population is projected to increase for several decades by every single model that I've seen, maybe even until or after the year 2100. Richard Vague (00:15:53) - The projection is by 2050, we'll have about 380 something million people, and today we're at 330 million people. So clearly the population is going to continue. It's just kind of the relative portion of those populations. And what I think we're seeing, and you as real estate investors would know this better than I, is a shift towards the type of real estate out there. Richard Vague (00:16:19) - Right? So instead of new homeowner development, it's retirement development that I think is going to be the higher growth sector with the real estate industry. Keith Weinhold (00:16:31) - And we're surely going to see fewer offices be built, something that may never come back. And then when we talk about things like birth rates and population growth rates here in the real estate world, I sort of think of there as being a lag effect. It's really not so much about today's births in the United States, because people often rent their first place in their 20s, and then the average age of a first time homebuyer is an all time record high 36. And all those people are going to need housing into old age as well. So to me, it's sort of about, oh, well, how many people were born from the 1940s to the 1990s? Richard Vague (00:17:10) - Well, there's a very useful tool that's pretty easily available called the Population Pyramid. You can find that on the CIA World Factbook site for every country and including the United States. And it shows exactly what you're talking about, which is the number of folks, you know, between 0 and 10 years old and into 20 years old and so forth. Richard Vague (00:17:32) - So you can kind of make reasonable projections about the near term based on the data that the CIA World Factbook is kind enough for by I believe the UN has this data as well, so you can make informed judgments about the very thing you're talking about here, which is how many folks are in their 20s to over the next ten years versus the last ten years. Keith Weinhold (00:17:54) - Yeah, that's reassuring to real estate investors to know that we expect several decades of population growth in the United States. However, it may be slowing growth. So we talked about births, I mentioned deaths. Well, you tell us a bit more about immigration, something else that can be very difficult to project here in the real estate world that we have a popular analyst called John Byrne's research and Consulting. Their data shows that we had 3.8 million Americans added to our population last year, much of it through immigration. That's a jump of more than 1%, an all time record in our 248 year history in one year alone. So can you tell us, at least in the United States, a bit more about immigration in the calculus for population projections? Richard. Richard Vague (00:18:42) - Immigration is a huge factor in the demographics of every country in the US, from a pure population growth standpoint as benefited by in-migration, including illegal and migration. That is a positive comparison versus a lot of countries that are either more restrictive art is desirable destinations for immigration and the life. So it has benefited us from a pure population standpoint. But what we clearly see is there are cultural ramifications that are difficult for us to deal with. We have the percent of folks that are in the United States that were born in another country. It's the highest it's been, I think, at least in a century or more and perhaps ever, that is really difficult for the general population to absorb. We see this in the headlines every day. We see it the concern, we see it in the political rhetoric. It's a real issue. So you have a very real conflict between the economic benefits of immigration versus the cultural divisions that that immigration creates. And that's not going to be easy to digest or to resolve. I think we probably end up continuing to compromise, but it continues to be a political lightning rod right into the foreseeable future. Keith Weinhold (00:20:14) - And there are so many factors here. Where's our future immigrant diaspora? Is it in places in Latin America like Guatemala? In Honduras, in Colombia. And are those people going to come from there? So there are a lot of factors, many of which aren't very predictable, to take a look at our future population growth rate in the United States. We're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and Securities, Richard Moore, and we come back on the affliction of inflation. This is general education. I'm your host, Keith Weintraub. Role under this specific expert with income property, you need Ridge lending Group and MLS 42056 in grey history, from beginners to veterans. They provided our listeners with more mortgages than anyone. It's where I get my own loans for single family rentals up to four Plex's. Start your pre-qualification and chat with President Charlie Ridge personally. They'll even customize a plan tailored to you for growing your portfolio. Start at Ridge Lending group.com Ridge lending group.com. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing, personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom Family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in returns, or better than a bank savings account, up to 12%. Keith Weinhold (00:21:44) - Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited for some of them. It's all backed by real estate and that kind of love. How the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains and your W-2 jobs income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 66866. Oh, and this isn't a solicitation. If you want to invest where I do, just go ahead and text family to six, 686, six. Speaker 4 (00:22:33) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to get Rich education with Keith Reinhold and don't quit your day dream. Keith Weinhold (00:22:49) - Welcome back to get Rich. So we're talking with economic futurist, author and Pennsylvania's former secretary of banking and securities. His name is Richard Vague. And Richard, before the break we talked about how many more people are there going to be on this earth. Keith Weinhold (00:23:03) - We know for sure that there's also the growth of the number of dollars in this nation. So we're talking about inflation here. You talk an awful lot about the affliction of inflation and the history of inflation. And I think a lot of people when we talk about the history of inflation, maybe we should begin chronologically. They don't realize that inflation wasn't always with us. Since the birth of this nation. Richard Vague (00:23:30) - We haven't had that many episodes of inflation. We look at it pretty hard. We see nine what we would consider nine instances of high inflation. Most of those have come with war. So we certainly had that. The Revolutionary War right of 1812 and the Civil War and World War one and World War two. But inflation has been brief, contained and rare in the history of Western developed nations. We had our bout in the 1970s that related to OPEC and the constraint of the oil supply. It normally relates to the decimation or constraint of the supplies and the supply chain. We saw it again with Covid. Richard Vague (00:24:17) - A lot of folks consider it to be a monetary phenomenon. We just don't see that in the data. Keith Weinhold (00:24:24) - So we talk about what causes these bouts of inflation. You talked about nine of them. Well, he talked to us more about why wars often create inflation. Of course we're trying to create a lot of supplies during wars, but they tend to be only certain types of supplies. Richard Vague (00:24:40) - World War One is a great example. Probably, you know, two thirds of the farms in Europe were decimated. So for a couple of years, there simply weren't the kind of crops that are needed for nutrition being grown in Europe, we Corps and the like. So the US had to, frankly, export something on the order of 20% of its crops to Europe to prevent starvation. Well, it's pretty easy to see that if the US if the supply has been decimated in Europe, we're having to ship, you know, a huge chunk of our crops to Europe, that the price of wheat and corn would go up. Richard Vague (00:25:21) - And that's exactly what happened. It's also pretty easy to see that as those farms came back on stream and began growing crops, that the price of wheat and corn would drop. And that's exactly what happened. So you have this relatively short lived period of 2 or 3 years where the decimation of supplies caused inflation, and that's fairly typical. Keith Weinhold (00:25:45) - Supply falls, demand exceeds supply and prices rise much like what happened with those Covid shortages, as you mentioned, what are the other major causes of inflation other than supply shortages that have caused these nine bouts of inflation? Richard Vague (00:26:03) - Well, let's talk about major developed countries, which I would include Western Europe, the United States predominantly. That's pretty much the only thing that has brought sustained high inflation is supply constraint. We don't see instances of high government debt growth or money supply growth ever causing inflation. Now when you get to smaller countries where they are borrowing in a foreign currency, where they have a trade deficit and where they yield to the temptation of printing too much money, and I don't mean by printing, we use that term in the United States, and it's absolutely a fictitious term. Richard Vague (00:26:50) - We don't print money in the United States. We have it printed money since the Civil War. So in a third world country, they can actually go to a printing press and start paying with cash for government supply needs. And you can see it very clearly when it happens and it very quickly leads to high inflation. You know, this is in places like Argentina and the like. So that would be the big issue in these countries. It's they borrow at a foreign currency. They have a trade deficit. They yield to the temptation of actually printing currency. It can get out of control pretty fast. Keith Weinhold (00:27:26) - It feels immoral. As soon as more currency is printed, it dilutes the purchasing power surreptitiously of all those people that are holding that currency. What about Richard? The government printing. And we can put printing in quote marks, say, $1 trillion to fund a new infrastructure program. A technically that is inflation if we. Go back to the root definition of inflation, inflation being an expansion of the money supply. Keith Weinhold (00:27:54) - But talk to us about how something like that does or does not dilute the purchasing power to fund, for example, a big infrastructure program. Richard Vague (00:28:03) - Well, it just never happens in Western developed economies. And one of the reasons it doesn't happen is the government issuance of debt does not increase the money supply by a nickel. If the government issues debt, it actually withdraws or shrinks the money supply because folks like you and me would buy the government security that reduces the number of deposits in the system. The government immediately turns around and spends exactly that amount. So the size of the money supply from government debt projects remains exactly the same. It doesn't increase. Keith Weinhold (00:28:42) - Does that act, however, increase our total absolute amount of national debt, which is currently $35 trillion? Richard Vague (00:28:51) - Of course it does. Absolutely. But the increase in our debt is money largely played to the households. So what normally happens is when the government's dead increases, household wealth increases by that amount or a greater amount. So take the pandemic. In a three year period, government debt increased by $8 trillion, which means its net worth declined by $1 trillion. Richard Vague (00:29:18) - Well, households were the beneficiaries of that household net worth in that three year period increased by $30 trillion. So, you know, net net, of course it increases their debt, but it dollar for dollar typically increases household wealth. Keith Weinhold (00:29:33) - That wealth effect can feel great for consumers and families in the short term. But doesn't increasing their income substantially in a short period of time drive up prices and create this debase purchasing power of the dollar? Richard Vague (00:29:46) - If we got our little green eyed shades out and went to try to find examples of that, we got a database of 49 countries that constituted 91% of the world's GDP. We just wouldn't find examples of that. And in the US, it's very easy to measure that. The number you're looking for is GDP. And we don't really see big cuts in GDP. You know, a wild swing in GDP would be 3.5% versus 2.5%. That's not a factor in any observable way. And what happens in inflation. Keith Weinhold (00:30:19) - Richard, the term that I think about with what's happened the past few years in this Covid wave of inflation is the word noticeable. Keith Weinhold (00:30:27) - People don't really talk about it. Consumers, families, they don't talk about inflation much when it's near its fed 2% target until it becomes noticeable. And now it's so obvious with what you see at the grocery store. So it's really infiltrated the American psyche in a way that it didn't five years ago. Richard Vague (00:30:45) - Inflation, even moderate inflation, is a highly consequential thing to the average American consumer. And two things happened to increase our inflation. Covid supply chains decimated supplies and kicked up prices. And then a second thing happened that was even more consequential. And that is Russia invaded Ukraine. And you had two countries that were, if you add them together among the largest providers or suppliers of oil and wheat, and almost instantly the price of oil and wheat and other goods skyrocketed. It was those two things, Covid, plus the invasion of Ukraine that drove our inflation up to 9% in June of 2022. Now, in July, it dropped to 3% and it stayed at 3% ever since. But we had already driven prices up in the prior year or two. Richard Vague (00:31:49) - And those prices even though the increases have moderated, those prices haven't come down right. Keith Weinhold (00:31:55) - Nor will. Richard Vague (00:31:55) - They. Now we have, you know, the threat of war again. So, you know, the price of oil just touch $90. Again, I would argue that, you know, it's going to be hard to see inflation come down. Much for like that 3 to 4 range because of the geopolitical situation. And one other thing that I would suggest is holding up inflation. And that's the Federal Reserve's interest rate. You know, if inflation is a measure of how expensive things are, high interest rates make things more expensive, right? Keith Weinhold (00:32:27) - It's an irony. Richard Vague (00:32:28) - It's almost exactly the opposite of what the orthodoxy at the Federal Reserve studies or believed. For whatever reason, if you're at an in an apartment in the apartment owner has leveraged their purchase of the apartments by 50 or 70 or 90% and their interest bill goes up, guess what? They have to. Charge you higher rate. I think some meaningful component of the stubbornness of inflation relates directly to the Federal Reserve's persistent interest rates. Richard Vague (00:33:00) - I think the best thing they could do would be to pull interest rates down 1 or 200 basis points. Keith Weinhold (00:33:07) - Well, that's interesting because the fed funds rate is pretty close to their long term average, and we still got inflation higher than their target. So tell us more about what you think is the best way out of this somewhat higher inflationary environment that we're still in Richard. Richard Vague (00:33:22) - Well two things. I think the geopolitical impact on oil prices is you. And I think the interest rate impact, particularly on real estate prices, is huge. Those are the two things holding up inflation. So if you wanted to improve inflation, you'd lower interest rates and then you'd run around the world trying to calm down these hot spots. And you'd have 2% inflation. Keith Weinhold (00:33:47) - Coming from some people's point of view, including the Fed's. If you lower interest rates you would feel inflationary pressures. So then go ahead and debunk this because the conventional wisdom is when you lower interest rates. Oh well now for consumers, you don't incentivize them to save as much because they wouldn't be earning much interest. Keith Weinhold (00:34:06) - And if rates to borrow become lower, then you're incentivizing more people to borrow and spend and run up prices in fuel the economy. So what's wrong with that model? Richard Vague (00:34:16) - Well, there's no empirical support for it. In 1986, when inflation dropped to 2%, interest rates were in the highest interest rates had been coming down by, you know, almost a thousand basis points over the prior 3 or 4 years. Money supply growth was 9%. So the two things the fed says are most the biggest contributors to rising inflation were both amply present when inflation dropped to 2%. So I just can't find any data to support the Fed's theory. And by the way, that data is not esoteric. That data is really readily available. You and I can go look at it. It's not a complicated equation. But over the last 40 years, in what at the age I call the great debt explosion, aggregate debt and the economy in 1981 was 125% of GDP. Today it's 260% of GDP and almost that entire 40 something year span. Richard Vague (00:35:21) - Inflation and interest rates went down. Somebody, somewhere is going to have to show me the evidence for me to believe what the fed is canonical, which is almost a sacred balloon. Keith Weinhold (00:35:33) - Well, that's a good look at history. In fact, something I say on the show often is let's look at history. And what really happens over having a hunch on how we think that things should proceed. You mentioned some inflation figures there. Why don't we wrap up inflation? Richard was talking about today's inflation measures. We've got the producer price index, the PPI, the widely cited CPI, which I recognize what you were stating earlier. And then of course there's the Fed's preferred measure, the core PCE, the core personal consumption expenditures. Richard, it's also funny to me when any measure is called core, it's core when they remove the food and energy inputs because those things are said to be too volatile. And of course, not only is food and energy essential, but what's more core than that? So perhaps the core rate should be called the peripheral rate. Keith Weinhold (00:36:22) - But in any case, do you have any comments on the measures of inflation that are used today? Richard Vague (00:36:28) - It's like you say, it's everything you just mentioned and more, because they're not just core inflation. There's something called super core, which I think is probably even more peripheral. Right. And I like your terminology better than the Fed's, but there's a lot of things to look at right now. They're all kind of coalescing around this at a low to mid 3% range. We got a new number coming out. It'll probably, you know here in the next few days. And it'll probably be a little bit higher than the last number, but we're talking about the difference to a 3.3% and 3.5%. And to me there's no difference between those two numbers. We were at 9%, as we just said, in June of 2022. And we're at a moderate level of inflation now after having suffered a rise in prices. It's not going to disappear. It's not fun, it's not comfortable, but it's moderate rabble. Richard Vague (00:37:22) - It's not a big drought. Keith Weinhold (00:37:24) - What's the right level of inflation in your opinion? Richard Vague (00:37:28) - Okay. Anything fundamentally wrong with the the 2% number that the fed saw I think, you know, at 3 to 4% were probably on the high end of, of what might be considered acceptable. But again, it's not the fact that it's 3% that's the problem. It's the fact that it was 6 to 9% for a couple of years. Yeah, that's the problem. It'll get take a while for everything to adjust to that. In the meantime, you know, with all bets are all that you know, there's if these wars get further out of control and we see 90, $200 oil prices again, we're only about we're 50% more efficient users of oil today than were were in the 1970s. We're still a little bit over dependent. Keith Weinhold (00:38:11) - Here at gray. I espouse how in everyday investor they can do more than merely hedge themselves against inflation, much like a homeowner with no mortgage would merely hedge themselves. But you can actually profit from inflation with a term that I've trademarked as the Inflation Triple Crown. Keith Weinhold (00:38:27) - I'd like to know what you think about it. The inflation Triple Crown means that you win with inflation three ways at the same time, and all that you need to do in order to make that happen is get a fixed rate mortgage on an income property. The asset price increase is the inflation hedge. The debt debasement on your mortgage loan, that's an inflation profiting center. Is inflation debases that down while the tenant makes the payment. And then thirdly, now rents might only track inflation, but your cash flow is actually a profit center over time too because it outpaces inflation. Since as the investor your biggest monthly expense that principal and interest stays fixed and inflation cannot touch that. That's the inflation triple Crown. It's available to almost anyone. You don't need any degree, your certification or real estate license. What are your thoughts on that? Profiting from inflation the way we do here I think you're absolutely correct. Richard Vague (00:39:22) - And I think you put it very, very well. And that's not just a trend at the individual property level. Richard Vague (00:39:28) - We studied macroeconomics and we look at aggregate real estate values. And frankly, real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. The more money there is, the more my dollars are chasing real estate and the higher real estate prices will go. So it's absolutely been the gin to put it into numbers in 1980 household. Well, this a percent of GDP was about 350%. Today it's almost 600% most household wealth that in the form of just two things real estate and stocks in somewhat equal measure, that's 80 or 90% of also. Well, so if you wanted to make money over the last 40 years and presumably over the next 40 real estate, one of the two places you could go. Keith Weinhold (00:40:24) - Well, Richard, as we wind down here, you run a group that predicts financial crises. So I'd be remiss to let you go without asking you about it. We've had a prolonged inverted yield curve, and that's been a terrific track record as a recession predictor. Is a financial crisis imminent? Tell us your thoughts. Richard Vague (00:40:41) - No, it's not. The predictor of financial crises is a rapid rise in private sector debt in ratio to GDP. We saw it skyrocket in the mid 2000 and we got a crisis in zero eight. We saw it skyrocket in the 1980s and we got the crisis in 87. We saw it skyrocket in Japan in the late 1980s. And you got the crisis of the 90s. We saw it skyrocketed in the 1920s and we got the Great Depression. That is the predictor. You know, we've studied that across major economies over 200 years. There really are exceptions to that as it relates to financial crises. Our numbers right now on the private debt side have been very flat, and they've really been very flat since 2008. They actually got a little bit better in that period, and they've been very flat over the last few years. We're not looking at a financial crisis in the United States. Other parts can't say that China is looking at a they're well into a massive real estate crisis there. We see companies there crumbling, declaring bankruptcy. Richard Vague (00:41:53) - That's because they've had runaway private sector debt in China for the last ten years. And there's a few other countries that are facing that as well. Keith Weinhold (00:42:02) - A lot of Chinese overbuilding there during that run up to, well, if you, the follower, are into using history over hunches to help you predict the future, Richard Baig really is a terrific resource for that, as you can tell. So, Richard, why don't you let our audience know how they can follow you and learn more? Richard Vague (00:42:22) - You're so kind to say those words. We hope we provide something of value. You can get our weekly video if you go to join Dot Tycho's group.org and Tycho's is spelled E, ICOs, ICOs group. Or we send out a weekly five minute video because if you're like me, you have a short attention span and brevity is the soul of wit. I also have a book that came out recently called The Paradox of Debt. Yeah. Which, you know, covers a lot of the themes we've talked about here. You know, it'd be an honor to have anyone to pick up either. Keith Weinhold (00:42:58) - Well, Richard, it's been a terrific discussion on both population decline and inflation. It's been great having you back on the show. Richard Vague (00:43:05) - You have a great show. It's a privilege to be part of it. Thank you very much. Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Yeah, big thanks to Richard Vague. Today he hits things from a different angle. With population decline perhaps not taking place in the US until the year 2100. Of course, we need to add years to that. Real estate investors might not have falling population growth in that crucial household formation demographic age. Then until the year 2125, well, that would be 100 more years of growth from this point. And yeah, I pushed him on our inflation chart somewhat. Richard isn't the first person, though I have heard others maintain that lower interest rates also lower inflation, where most tend to believe that the opposite is true, including the fed. In any case, wars drive inflation because they create supply shortages. That was true over 100 years ago when World War one and today with Russia, Ukraine. Keith Weinhold (00:44:17) - I mean, is there any one factor that drives price increases more than supply shortages? The short supply of real estate itself is what keeps driving prices. And Richard asks us to look where some don't. That is that real estate values rise as debt to GDP rises. In his opinion, there is no financial crisis imminent. We need to see a rapid rise in private sector debt in proportion to GDP first. And you know what's remarkable about this economic slowdown or recession that still hasn't come, but it's been erroneously predicted by so many. It's the fact that recessions are often self-fulfilling prophecies. People have called on a recession for the last year or two. And that mere forecast alone that tends to make real estate investors think, well, then I won't buy the property because my tenant might lose their job in a recession. And businesses don't hire when everyone says a recession is coming. That's exactly how a recession becomes self-fulfilling. And despite two years of that, it still hasn't happened. That's what's remarkable. Anyone sitting on the sideline keeps losing out again. Keith Weinhold (00:45:37) - You can follow Richard. Big Tycho's is spelled Tycho's. Follow a joint Tycho's group.org. Richard and I talked some more outside of our interview here, and he had a lot of compliments about the show. In fact, more compliments than any guest has given in a while. He had not heard of our show before last year. I'm in Philadelphia somewhat regularly and I might hit him up the next time I'm there. We'll get lunch or something. Check out Gray in Spanish at Get Rich education comma. Espanyol. Thank you for tuning in today where our episode was Bigger Picture education. Next week's show will be substantially more hands on real estate. I'm Keith Wayne a little bit. Don't quit your day dream. Speaker 5 (00:46:24) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get Rich education LLC exclusively. Keith Weinhold (00:46:52) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.com.

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Vince Lanci: Are BRICS Really Planning A 'Common Currency'

Arcadia Economics

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 19, 2024 32:43

Vince Lanci: Are BRICS Really Planning A 'Common Currency' Over the past year there's been a lot of speculation in regards to what the BRICS may be planning in regards to a new currency system. Leading up to last year's BRICS meeting Jim RIckards had speculated that they would be going to a gold-backed currency. Which of course has not happened yet. At the BRICS meeting Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said 'Nobody is talking now about a “common currency.' Although Russian economist Sergey Glazyev has made other comments that give a different impression. So what's really happening? In today's show Vince Lanci reviews the comments, and shares how he interprets them, and what is actually taking place. So to find out more about the latest currency developments from the BRICS that have the potential to impact the gold price, click to watch the video now! - To get a 30% discount to Vince's Goldfix newsletter go to: https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/Arcadia30off To find out more about First Majestic Silver's recent exploration results go to: https://firstmajestic.com/investors/news-releases/first-majestic-reports-positive-exploration-results-at-san-dimas-santa-elena-and-jerritt-canyon-properties - To join our free email list and never miss a video click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/email-signup/ - To get your paperback or audio copy of The Big Silver Short go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/thebigsilvershort/ Find Arcadia Economics content on these sites: YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/user/ArcadiaEconomics Rumble - https://rumble.com/c/ArcadiaEconomics Bitchute - https://www.bitchute.com/channel/kgpeiwO1dhxX/ LBRY/Odysee - https://odysee.com/@ArcadiaEconomics:5 Listen to Arcadia Economics on your favorite Podcast platforms: Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/75OH2PpgUpriBA5mYf5kyY Apple - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/arcadia-economics/id1505398976 Google-https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9teXNvdW5kd2lzZS5jb20vcnNzLzE2MTg5NTk1MjMzNDVz Anchor - https://anchor.fm/arcadiaeconomics Amazon - https://podcasters.amazon.com/podcasts Follow Arcadia Economics on these social platforms Twitter - https://twitter.com/ArcadiaEconomic Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/arcadiaeconomics/ To see the evidence of manipulative behavior in the silver market (as well as how you can send it to your local regulators and Congressional representatives) click here: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/cftc-complaint/ - To sign the petition to ban JP Morgan from having any involvement in the silver industry click here: https://www.ipetitions.com/petition/ban-jp-morgan-from-trading-gold-and-silver #silver #silverprice And remember to get outside and have some fun every once in a while!:) (URL0VD) This video was sponsored by First Majestic Silver, and Arcadia Economics does receive compensation. For our full disclaimer go to: https://arcadiaeconomics.com/disclaimer-first-majestic-silver/Subscribe to Arcadia Economics on Soundwise

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RERUN: Uncovering the Truth Behind RNA Technology and the Fate of the Dollar | With Clay Clark

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 17, 2024 29:05 Transcription Available

Prepare to have your perspectives challenged as I, Alex Stone, alongside Clay Clark of the Reawaken America tour, confront the complex landscape where faith collides with the political arena. We don't just skim the surface; we're tearing down the veil and diving into the implications of COVID-19 vaccinations that go beyond health—a conversation touching upon the controversial aspects of RNA modifying nanotechnology, graphene, and their eerie links to transhumanism and burgeoning technologies such as 6G.Jim Rickards, the financial maestro, joins us to cast a spotlight on the global economic theater, highlighting the tremors that could lead to the dollar's downfall and how the rising BRICS-11 could redraw the map of international finance. Rickards' analysis is a wake-up call, uncovering the strategic maneuvers poised to disrupt the global monetary dominion and what this means for your wallet. The stakes are high, and the game is changing; we're here to make sure you're not left in the dark.As the episode progresses, we navigate the precarious path of de-dollarization and the erosion of the Petrodollar system, examining the potential shockwaves that could ripple through America's fiscal empire. Weaving biblical prophecies into the discussion, we contemplate the alignment of current events with the economic systems foretold in Revelation and Daniel. This is more than just a podcast; it's an essential briefing on the pressing issues that could reshape our world and your place within it. When you go to mypillow.com and use promo code GenZ, you can get a discount of UP TO 66% off your order!!!

Murphy Gives Post-Game Analysis of ZeroHedge Dollar Debate

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2024

On February 13, 2024, Bob participated (with Jim Rickards, Brent Johnson, and Michael Every) in a ZeroHedge debate on the fate of the USD. In this episode of the Human Action podcast, Bob highlights some of the key issues and explains why he thinks his side won. The ZeroHedge Debate: Mises.org/HAP435a Brent Johnson's Milkshake Theory: Mises.org/HAP435b Egert's Article on the Public Debt Threshold: Mises.org/HAP435c Bob's Article on the Latest CBO Federal Debt Report: Mises.org/HAP435d Human Action Podcast listeners can get a free copy of Dr. Guido Hülsmann's How Inflation Destroys Civilization: Mises.org/HAPodFree

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<![CDATA[Murphy Gives Post-Game Analysis of ZeroHedge Dollar Debate]]>

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2024

debate dollar usd postgame xd financial markets mises game analysis zero hedge brent johnson human action jim rickards monetary theory money and banks other schools of thought michael every

Murphy Gives Post-Game Analysis of ZeroHedge Dollar Debate

The Human Action Podcast

Play Episode Listen Later Feb 16, 2024

debate dollar usd postgame financial markets game analysis zero hedge brent johnson human action jim rickards monetary theory money and banks guido h other schools of thought michael every

Unbelievable Connection Between LTCM, The GFC and What Lies Ahead in 2024: Jim Rickards' Deep Dive

Making Sense

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 16, 2024 28:26

To watch the full interview you can access it with our deep dive or membership site https://www.eurodollar.universityThis conversation wasn't just an inside account of LTCM and a recall of history at of those famous crossroads, Jim Rickards and Jeff ruminate over the implications from the affair which are still reverberating through time right up to this day. The struggles to contain the fallout from the debacle are every bit as relevant now as it was shocking way back then. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro AnalysisTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_EDUhttps://www.eurodollar.universityRealClearMarkets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

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News: Jim Rickards Shocks The World With His New 2024 Predictions

The Rebel Capitalist Show

Play Episode Listen Later Jan 4, 2024 22:02 Very Popular

The Rebel Capitalist helps YOU learn more about Macro, Investing, Entrepreneurship AND Personal Freedom.✅If you want to see what I'm doing with my portfolio this year, check it out here https://www.georgegammon.com/2024 ✅Come To Rebel Capitalist Live In Orlando May 31- June 2! https://rebelcapitalistlive.com/ ✅Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/pro ✅Rebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com

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News: Jim Rickards Shocks The World With New Dollar Prediction

The Rebel Capitalist Show

Play Episode Listen Later Nov 13, 2023 18:50

Check out my private, online investment community (Rebel Capitalist Pro) with Chris MacIntosh, Lyn Alden and many more for $1!! click here https://georgegammon.com/proRebel capitalist merchandise https://www.rebelcapitaliststore.com

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472: Pennsylvania's Secretary of Banking and Securities Joins Keith