Dialogues on Canadian Energy podcasts

Dennis sat down to discuss his newest book, Carbon Change: Canada on the Brink of Decarbonization, available now online and in-store. Dennis details his motivations to write this book The major arguments he makes with regards to Canada's current plan for decarbonization The major conclusions he draws from these arguments And most importantly, why this extremely timely book is a must-read for all Canadians.

Dennis, since our last podcast we have had some momentous developments around Biden and KXL, can you give us your analysis of why the permit was revoked, and the implications? Obviously, this is a difficult situation for the Alberta government, what do you see it doing over the rest of 2021? And the Trudeau government?

2020 is a year we all want behind us for many reasons. So much has unfolded since our last podcast this will be a very full year end to get through. Let's begin: US election implications – KXL most of all Trudeau virtue signalling – Zero net emissions and UNDRIP The $170/tonne solution –  Liberals all in on Paris Conservative response, Canadian business elites? 2021 key indicators – Georgia run-offs, Covid vaccine roll out, crude demand restored

Jean-François Thibault is a energy news commentator who appears frequently in various written and spoken media in Quebec. Energy East is a symbol of different things to different parts of the country, what do you think its demise means to Quebec? All projects have specific aspects of their development and implementation that become problematic, in the case of Energy East, there was the impact on gas consumers from taking existing gas transmission infrastructure out of service and convert to oil transport. How big a factor was this? What is your opinion of how the Trudeau government handled this project? It's apparent willingness to extend a de facto veto to Quebec, notwithstanding federal jurisdiction. Its changing of the rules on the regulatory process after literally billions has been spent. Energy East was always a project that was a third best option, in my view, in terms of required infrastructure, but it did have real shipping agreements underpinning it commercially. It provided real optionality and benefits to Quebec and Eastern Canada. And with minimal engineering risks, compared to crossing the Coastal Mountains.  Why was this gift horse treated in such a hostile fashion?

Conversation covered a few developments that have evolved over the last couple of weeks. Including:  This week the new Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, clarified that he would be committed to have Canada meet its Paris emission reduction targets. What is your reaction to this? Biden’s lead is holding in the US Presidential election. What does his election mean in respect of climate policy?

Discussion covers these topics: Dennis, it has been almost six months since our last podcast, pre COVID, can you elaborate on what has unfolded over that time period as it has effected Canadian hydrocarbons and national climate policy? What do you see as the likely scenarios unfolding in 2021 for Canadian hydrocarbons and climate policy, especially after recent events in Ottawa related to  the Morneau resignation Alberta, how bleak? Common ground on policy in Canada? Going into 2021?

Obviously some difficult circumstances have unfolded. Dennis can you provide an overview/understanding?

In this conversation, Dennis is asked his opinion on... TMX developments Teck approval The looming Federal Budget And lastly, federal Conservative leadership and climate policy

In this conversation, Dennis is asked... A lot of consternation in Alberta after the election, and the fate of its core industry, what is your view of what are Alberta’s real options? What is the capacity of Alberta’s political leadership to make any substantive progress? Or will they make this worse?

With the federal election over, what does this mean for Alberta and its hydrocarbon industry? Specifically, for the Alberta government where is this going? Does Trudeau build TMX within the next 2 years?

Dennis, close to 4 weeks to the beginning of the federal election, what will all that mean for Alberta, pipelines, national energy policy, etc?

Dennis, a lot has happened in the last couple of weeks, can you recap for us? Second, the October election looms ahead, what other surprises could happen to create a fundamental change in this outlook? How much consensus does Canada actually have on energy and climate issues?

The Alberta election has occurred, what do yo think is the biggest challenge for the new premier, what should he do? How do you think this will play out in the short run, up until July 1st? How will all of this unfold for the Federal Election in October?

Dennis, some positive developments on KXL? Elaborate for us. Status of C69 – where is this? And the Alberta election, what hangs in the balance vis a vis Ottawa depending on a potential Kenney win.

Dennis, can put into context where we stand on market access for Alberta hydrocarbons? And touch on the recent NEB decision on TMX specifically. Obviously, a lot has unfolded over the last month in Ottawa that impacts the future of the Liberal government and Justin Trudeau specifically. How do you see that impacting any of the dynamics on a re-approval of TMX? And then the Alberta election, when? Does the advent of Kenney make re-approval more difficult?

Lay out where Alberta stands on oil sands curtailments, rail cars, and discounts How do you see 2019 playing out? For pipelines, carbon and Alberta?

Discussion covers these topics: Update on KXL developments Alberta producers introduce a proposal that has created a lot of attention and controversy plus, what is Ottawa doing?

Discussion covers these areas:  TMX developments Bill C-69 and carbon taxes plus, looming elections  

Dennis, it has been about a month since the FCA decision on TMX  came down and nullified the project, what has occurred in the interim? Can you elaborate on what will be involved in the two processes to remedy the FCA cited deficiencies - on whales and consultation? What are the risks here of this consuming most of 2019? What, if any, options does Alberta have? How satisfied is the federal government in terms of how this has played out? Why has reaction to the FCA decision not been more extreme? Bill C-69 regulation needing amendment  

Dennis, momentous day yesterday re TMX, can you elaborate on what occurred? What is the path forward? What are the deeper implications of all this? Who cares?

It has been a few weeks since the last podcast, what developments do you want to touch on? Dennis provides a few comments on the TMX/KXL/Enbridge Line 3 status, and also overall developments on Canadian carbon policy. Updates on these oil sands pipelines. Canadian carbon policy, the biggest development is the advent of the Ford government in Ontario and its resistance to carbon pricing. And the looming deadline on “carbon plans” from the provinces later this year. In closing, C69 looms out there to be finally passed.

Over the past week, how do you see the reaction to the federal acquisition of TM unfolding? From the ENGO perspective, where do they go next? What was your view of the prospects of the government actually being able to sell this position in the short run? Finally, where does bill C69 stand right now?

The Trudeau government acted decisively yesterday on TransMountain. Dennis, can you first lay out the highlights of what came down yesterday. What was your sense of the dynamic that played out in these negotiations? How do you see this unfolding over the rest of the year? Is this a real turning point for how this country is dealing with carbon and energy? Will we learn anything from it?

Dennis, important press conference today out of Ottawa from the Minister of Finance on salvaging TMX. Can you elaborate for us. With that context, how do think this unfolds over the next two weeks? Is there a viable Plan B for Trudeau and Notley if this breaks down with Kinder in the short run?

Dennis since the last podcast some important developments, we see that the federal government is going to take action to salvage TMX, can you elaborate? What is your sense of this new legislation, this financial arrangement? How difficult do you see this in coming together, in less than six weeks?

Dennis, big news over the weekend on Trans Mountain, can you first just layout the facts of what has occurred? So how do you see this play out for the four key players?: Kinder, Ottawa, Alberta and BC If this project is lost, where does this all go? Does the NGO movement declare victory? How difficult is this for Alberta?

The Alberta Budget was released last week and the carbon taxes figured prominently, Dennis fills us in.

Many developments, let’s first start with the regulatory reform developments. More urgently, how is the Kinder Morgan situation unfolding? More broadly, how difficult is this going to get if BC does not stand? At what point, does Kinder lose its will to persevere?  

Discussion of recent developments impacting progress on TMX and KXL with special emphasis on the recent BC intervention to thwart the project and the Alberta and federal response to that.

We review the status of Canada’s three major oil pipeline projects, all apparently approved but each struggling for a final investment decision, especially for KXL and TMX. If these projects are lost, then the long war on Canadian crude production and its role in global climate risk abatement will have been won by the enviros.  

A quick pre-Christmas item, around how the carbon tax will be administered in Alberta.

Big news with the Nebraska decision. Dennis, can you put that into context for us? Now what is the process going forward for the project? And the Canadian political reaction to all of this?

Imminent Nebraska decision on KXL next week, put this into context. Trudeau government and enforcing its TMX approval, just how conflicted is the Trudeau government?

Dennis, it's been a seemingly quiet for the past few weeks, ever since the Energy East termination. Any developments? Calm before the storm? KXL Regulatory reform legislation Advent of Kenney

Dennis it’s been awhile and some momentous developments: Can you explain what has unfolded on Energy East, and why? How have various Canadian governments reacted? Where does this put Canada’s oil sands business? Looming Alberta Conservative leadership race,  how will that change the dynamic if at all?

A lot has happened in the past month. As usual all interconnected. Dennis responds to the following questions:  First, yesterday TransCanada announced a suspension of the Energy East project.  I know this is connected to the highly controversial re-scoping decision of the NEB. Can you put this into context for us? Why would the Trudeau government not want to see this project proceed? Why would any Canadian government not want it to proceed? Related to all of this, where is the Trudeau government going on regulatory reform?  And why?  Also, unfolding is the Alberta leadership race, where are those aspiring leaders stand on carbon and energy development?

Dennis, significant events keep unfolding on the carbon and energy scene this summer, vacations be dammed. What are the key developments and can you elaborate on them?: Two Supreme Court decisions on duty to consult The loss of the Petronas LNG project And Alberta politics and what it means for how market access and carbon policy play out

Dennis, although it’s summer time, some carbon and energy developments over the last month, most notably a Government of Canada discussion paper on regulatory reform. Can you first give us some context for this and why it is important? What are the key elements of the discussion paper? How different is this from what you had advocated in your submissions to the NEB Modernization Panel? How does this regulatory reform, at least relating to major hydrocarbon infrastructure, really matter going forward?  Has Canada lost its window of opportunity?

Dennis, a significant development last week in Alberta, the release of the Oil Sands Advisory Board report, can you first explain the background of it? Why is the cap fundamentally problematic to oil sands investment? How do the recommendations of the panel impact the investment process? Where does this go into the future? Alberta politics, market access, and national climate strategy?

Two major developments since our last podcast: First on Paris, can you describe its major elements and how Canada chose to relate to them? What does the US withdrawal actually mean to the world’s progress towards lower GHG emissions over time? Does the Trump announcement change the challenge that Canada has in respect of meeting its Paris targets? Do you believe that the Trump administration has any credibility on a genuine renegotiation of the basic terms of the Paris Accord? Second, the BC leftist coalition – what does it mean potentially to Alberta? Can you elaborate on the challenge this will create for the Prime Minister? If he has to defend the rights of the project proponents, even as  he tries to keep his credibility on his “Paris targets”? How ugly could this get? How much empathy if any does Alberta get from the rest of Canada, especially Ontario and Quebec?

NEB re-scoping of Energy East BC election uncertainty NEB Modernization Panel Federal climate policy clarification

Dennis, its been a while but what do you see has transpired over the first quarter on Canadian carbon and energy? Following up on KXL, what is your prognosis for it over the remainder of the year? On the US side, what could occur that may impact Canada? What is the risk related to an NDP victory in BC to Alberta and its hydrocarbon industry?

Dennis, can you review the events of this week on KXL? What are the challenges ahead for TC to get to construction? What will be the reaction of opponents? What tactics will they resort to? Why does incremental pipeline infrastructure matter so much to Canadian ENGOs? 

Can you review the main points of what happened last week on Canadian carbon policy? What do you see as the significants of what occurred? What are your concerns from what came out of last week? What are “next steps” for the Trudeau government in all of this? And for Rachel Notley?

Review what the Trudeau Government actually did? Regarding the Kinder approval, do you have an explanation of how they came to this decision? Why was Northern Gateway rejected?  Do you give Trudeau credit here? What, if anything, do you take issue with him over? What lies ahead? And is Trudeau up to dealing with it? And Ms Notley, is this a big victory for her personally? Is Canada a little less dysfunctional after this week? Does this change the thesis of your book, Dysfunction – Canada after Keystone XL?

The unexpected happened on November 8th. What does this mean for Canada, especially in its approach to energy and climate policy?   What do we actually know about Trump’s positions on climate and energy? Is a revival of Keystone XL the most significant development in the short run for Canada?  How will Trudeau and Notley react to that? Beyond that, can Canada sustain a carbon pricing standard if the US under Donald Trump is not? How do you see this playing out in Canada for 2017?

Dennis, I know you have alluded to this is prior podcasts, but can you explain why the impending Kinder pipeline decision by the Trudeau government is so important? Can you elaborate on the considerations that are in play with this decisions, political, technical and legal? What recent developments have perhaps altered the likely decision? So, ultimately w do you see the outcome coming out? What do you see as the outcome? So, when is an approval not quite an approval? Expand on that? Finally, if an approval occurs, what do you see as the major consequences?

Dennis, you believe the next 3 months are going to critical for Canada on climate and pipelines. Can you explain? For those of us, that don’t know, can you clarify the major pipeline projects still in play in Canada? For the Trudeau government, help us understand their climate “options” better right now. And the Notley government, where are they? Hanging out on market access? What is your prognosis over the next 3 months? How difficult do you think it will be for the Trudeau government? And who will support them? And what about industry and Canadian business? Where will they be on all of this? Tell us more about your book, Disfunction: Canada After Keystone XL due to be released January 2017.

This is the inaugural interview for Dialogues on Canadian Energy. Dennis McConaghy discusses the following items: Biography Vision for podcast Format and frequency Major issues Why Canadians should relate to this podcast Upcoming topics Dennis McConaghy is a Canadian energy executive with nearly forty years of industry experience in infrastructure development. He has engaged in the evolution of Canadian energy and climate policy over thirty years, from the National Energy Program of 1980 to the Paris Climate Conference of 2015. As one of the senior executives of TransCanada Pipelines, he was directly involved in conceiving and executing the Keystone XL pipeline project. Dennis's book Disfunction: Canada after Keystone XL will be available January 2017. The book is an investigation of the history and demise of the most controversial North American energy infrastructure project.  Visit http://doce.ca for more Dialogues on Canadian Energy