Israel Update

Ronen Bar, the insubordinate head of Shin Bet, steps up the investigation into alleged ties between members of the prime minister's staff and Qatar. Mike and Gadi think this is all nonsense, transparently designed to prevent the prime minister from removing Bar, as the cabinet unanimously voted to do. This does not mean the trumped-up charges will not become politically dangerous to Netanyahu's government. Also in this episode: is a direct clash between Israel and Turkey in Syria now inevitable?

Gadi and Mike lay out the order of battle of the brewing crisis Israel is heading into in the wake of the cabinet's decision to terminate the tenure of the failed head of Shin Bet (Shabak), Ronnen Bar. The Supreme Court has already moved to freeze the cabinet's decision, but it is not clear whether the cabinet will obey the legally dubious order. Is a clash between the elected government and the administrative state now inevitable? Also on this episode: a momentous shift in American policy towards Iran.

There is much that is patently false about the rhetoric regarding the savagery in Syria. But it should not distract Israel from the real game: the geopolitical problem is the Iranian attempt to use the Alawite minority in order to regain a foothold in Syria. And one cannot begin to make sense of the chaos without taking account of this development.  Also in this episode: former heads of Shin Bet use mafia-style threats to reveal secrets about the Netanyahu family if the prime minister dares to fire the sitting head of Shin Bet, Ronnen Bar.

We're back! And there's a lot to talk about. Like the recently submitted conclusions of IDF and the Shin Bet inquiries of the October 7 disaster. To the extent that the press releases represent the actual content, both are shamelessly political, and both attempt to excuse, cover up and shift the blame – to Netanyahu, of course. The press is therefore eager to cooperate.  Also on this episode: the Russian initiative to mediate negotiations over a new nuclear deal with Iran. 

Trump's plan for the future of Gaza caught the world by surprise. It seems to have caught prime minister Netanyahu by surprise too. To what extent is it feasible, and if it is - would it be good for Israel?

Gadi spoke with British author Melanie Phillips about her new book The Builder's Stone: How Jews and Christians Built the West—and Why Only They Can Save It.

While Israel is reeling from the drama of the hostage deal, Judge Yitzhak Amit appoints himself President of the Supreme Court. Minister of Justice Levin refuses to accept the brazen move. But all this pales – at least on this episode – in the face of a fierce, Israeli style, shouting match over the future of Gaza. And then there is, of course, Trump disrupting the accepted terms we use for discussing the Israeli Palestinian conflict.

Chief of IDF staff General Herzi Halevi resigned after a career that will be forever remembered as an abject failure. Gadi explains why so many – himself included – are breathing a sigh of relief, but Mike warns against judging Halevi motivation solely through a political lens. Meanwhile, Trump's first days in office still send mixed signals to Israel and the Middle East.

The deal that Israel is now forced to accept is not very different from the one the Biden administration has tried to impose. Combined with the rise of the isolationist elements of MAGA, this may signify a worrying trend. But Mike is less concerned than Gadi is. Granted, he also had significantly lower expectations. Plus: turmoil in Israel's Knesset, and a new scandal involving the man designated to preside of Israel's Supreme Court.

Accompanied by a Turkish driver and two lightly armed escorts, Mike had the opportunity to see firsthand what post-Assad Syria is like. The country was devastated. The scenes of poverty and destruction are heart wrenching. At one-point Mike's escort had to change the route to evade an attack by Israel. Meanwhile in Israel chief of staff Herzi Halevi seems intent on evading a serious enquiry in the disastrous failure of the army under his command on the fateful Shabbat of October 7.

A network of anti-Israel officials inside the Biden administration is encouraging President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken to spring on Israel a nasty January surprise. They are modeling their scheme on the ambush at the United Nations that the outgoing Obama administration sprung on Prime Minister Netanyahu's government in December 2016. Obama, you will recall, orchestrated the passing of UNSCR 2334, which aims to turn the ceasefire lines that separated Israel from Jordan before the 1967 war into an internationally recognized political boundary between Israel and a Palestinian state. This year's January surprise aims to find Israel officially guilty of blocking humanitarian aid to Gaza, thereby laying the evidentiary basis for a new UN resolution punishing Israel. Mike and Gadi have the scoop.

Is a clash inevitable between Israel and Turkey over Syria? Or can they find a mutually beneficial arrangement? Two heavy hitters, IU's Mike Doran and Haifa University's Dan Schueftan, face off against each other on this crucial issue for Israel's future.

Mike has been following the Syrian question for decades and he explains why Israel has a great opportunity now, if it acts with a cool head, but may also fall into a dangerous trap if it does not. Plus: we had some hearty laughs at the end. 

After a number of off the record talks with high ranking sources in Israel, both Gadi and Mike are under the impression that the talks of larger goals are sincere. In that case we are probably witnessing a lull, no more, until President Trump takes office. Meanwhile, Netanyahu's domestic enemies are going into overdrive, with two new surprising investigations: one against the chief of Israel's Prison Service, and one against the chief of Israel's Police in Judea and Samaria. The problem seems to be this: they did what Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, told them to.

Prime Minister Netanyahu issued a confrontational statement accusing his intelligence services of deliberately withholding information from him. It seems clear by now that the "leak scandal" is turning into a real internal crisis. Since Mike was visiting Tel Aviv, we recorded this one on the fly, in Gadi's home.

This is more than an investigation of a leak. There are reasons why law enforcement and the state attorney are so intent on keeping the suspects in custody, despite the initial refusal of the lower court to extend their detention. Now it turns out that a rope and a suicide note were found in one suspect's cell. Gadi and Mike lay out three possible explanations for what this is really about. Then there's also the court's refusal to postpone Benjamin Netanyahu's testimony in the cases against him, even though he's slightly busy running a country at war. It seems like the deep state has stepped up its effort to oust Netanyahu, before time runs out on the Biden-Harris administration. 

Prime Minister Netanyahu is hinting that there is something more sinister going on behind an investigation of leaks from his office: yet another politically motivated use of law enforcement. And this time it's not the police, it's Israel's secret security service – Shabak (aka Shin Bet). Though we don't yet have all the information, Gadi thinks he's heard it all before – has Shabak director Ronen Bar taken a page from James Comey's book? Mike, not yet convinced, nevertheless thinks such an interpretation is beginning to make more sense.  We also discussed Trump's new appointments and what they reveal about his administration's future policy vis-à-vis Israel. 

For over a year now Mike and Gadi have been wrestling with one central problem: can Israel go it alone against Iran? That awful dilemma may now be obsolete. Apart from a deep sense of relief, what are we to expect from a Trump presidency? Meanwhile Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired Yoav Gallant, his minister of defense. Why did Netanyahu choose this timing, and what can the timing reveal about his possible plans for the future conduct of the war? And finally, does the new investigation of a leaked document pose a threat to the stability of Netanyahu's coalition?

A report in the Israeli press talks of "advanced" negotiations for a deal to end the war in Lebanon. But Mike and Gadi are skeptical. The way the story is sourced, the journalist who wrote it, and the American blessing written all over it, suggest that around a grain of truth a fair amount to wishful thinking by the usual suspects has grown. Nevertheless, Mike thinks we can't dismiss the possibility. We also discussed Gadi's piece in Mosaic about the false conceptions that blinded Israel to the disaster of October 7.

Was it wise to limit the strike to military targets, as per the American red lines? Or did Israel just miss a once in a lifetime opportunity to take out Iran's nuclear facilities? Are we going to see further escalation or will it all wind down now in the run-up to the American elections? We found almost nothing to agree on this time, not even Yair Lapid.

Predictably, the US is once again telling Israel to "take the win," and bring an end to the war in a ceasefire-for-hostages deal. But the very idea is outdated since there is no longer a central Hamas leadership able to deliver a deal. Instead Prime Minister Netanyahu's message is that Israel will deal separately with each local Hamas commander: whoever will deliver our hostages can get his life and a safe passage out of Gaza in return. How this will play out, and what it could mean for other theaters – primarily Lebanon and Iran? Mike and Gadi discuss. Mike's WSJ piece The Politico piece we discussed

Iran is stepping in to fill the gaps in the Hezbollah chain of command with IRGC men. The plan seems to be a tactical withdrawal to the north in order to regroup and sync the various weapon systems into a better organized counter-strike against Israel. Meanwhile UNIFIL, the UN "peacekeeping" force, is shielding Hezbollah from the IDF, as does, in other ways, the Biden Administration. Mike and Gadi discuss.  Also on this episode: why did Gadi go to pray on Yom Kippur for the first time?

Recent weeks have improved Israel's strategic position vis-à-vis Iran considerably. But the direct confrontation that had just began can have extremely serious consequences, not all of which are easy to predict. Gadi and Mike discuss what Israel and the world could win, what they could lose, and how the Biden-Harris administration could impact the outcome.

With the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, Gadi and Mike agree, the war turned in Israel's favor. This masterstroke, coming as it did after a long string of impressive military achievements, weakened not only Hezbollah but also Iran, which has failed to respond in any meaningful way. Iran's major move, thus far, has been to threaten the United States. If the Americans would only stop restraining Israel and begin to support its efforts to weaken Iran, this turning point in the war could become a hinge point in history, the beginning of the sharp decline of Iran's Resistance Axis

We did not expect this. For the first time in this war, Mike explains, Israel achieved escalation dominance, and regained its deterrence. But on the road ahead there are still major obstacles. Tactical, strategic, and political. The largest of them is the Biden administration. 

This was the world's first mass targeted assassination, where Hezbollah was made to self-select the targets. It also neutralized one of Hezbollah's cruelest strategies: embedding its military among civilians. Mike and Gadi discuss the operation and what may or may not come next. Also on this episode: Netanyahu's decision to oust minister of security Yoav Gallant has not been reversed. If Gideon Saar is to replace Gallant, it's time to introduce you to the unbelievable story that is this man's political career.

Israel was gripped last week by two scandals: one erupted over the Hamas strategy document, leaked to the German newspaper, the Bild. What was in the document was no less sensational than the fact that the IDF seems to have concealed its existence from the Prime Minister. The second scandal had to do with leaked phone calls of former Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit, the man who indicted Netanyahu. The leaked calls brought back suspicions about the politization of law enforcement.

The woke classification of victimhood and oppression has put Jews on the wrong side of the divide, and so put many of them on the defensive. Not Brooke Goldstein, founder and executive director of the Lawfare Project. The project was created in order to fight against Jew hatred in courts, based on a solid civil rights agenda. It is a fight many more should be taking part in. Gadi spoke with Brooke about Qatari money that flows into American universities, campus antisemitism, and the growing risk to Jews of physical violence. Yes, there are things to do in order to fight back. 

When the news broke out in Israel, about the execution of six hostages, it seemed like the public was split in half over Netanyahu's policy to retain the Philadelphi Corridor. That picture, Mike and Gadi argue, is distorted in more than one way: there was no deal to accept or reject; the Philadelphi Corridor is not the main point of contention; Israel is not equally split between the two position; the Gallant, Gantz and Eisenkot game plan is more complicated than it seems; and the Never-Bibi crowd just suffered a strategic defeat with the collapse of its attempt at a massive protest and a general strike.   Plus: Tucker Carlson, Daryl Cooper and the rising tide of antisemitism on the American right. 

Mike explains why what the press is telling us about Israel's preemptive strike does not add up. Apparently, something different is going on.  Also on this episode: why getting your news from Israeli English language sources is a tricky business.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken has announced at the end of a meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday that Netanyahu has accepted the new US bridging proposal for a hostage deal, and now Hamas should too, the Secretary said. But Netanyahu's detractors in Israel, as well as Hamas, insist on blaming the Israeli Prime Minister for sabotaging the deal. In Israel that alleged sabotage is tied to the controversy over the Philadelphi Corridor, the border between Gaza and Egypt where the IDF has so far found about 200 smuggling tunnels. Gadi and Mike discuss the politics around the deal in Israel, the US, and among Hamas and its allies – all in the shadow of a looming regional war.

Israel's existence depends on breaking Iran's drive for regional hegemony. This may take more than a few years, and probably several wars. The early history of Israel offers some useful lessons. 

 Mike and Gadi weigh the alternative scenarios as tensions mount: on the one hand Iran and Hezbollah must respond, on the other hand they fear a massive and costly Israeli retaliation. For its part, the US hopes to provide Iran and Hezbollah a pretext for restraint, by brokering a ceasefire agreement on Gaza. All the pieces are set on the chessboard. What now?  And here are the articles we referred to: Mike's The Anti-Israel Sanctions Machine: https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-harris-anti-israel-sanctions-machine And Gadi's For Israel's Progressive Elites, the Real War is Against the Enemy Within https://www.jns.org/for-israels-progressive-elites-the-real-war-is-against-the-enemy-within/

An Israel Update In-Depth Special with Prof. Dan Scheuftan: Gaza, says Schueftan, is the most heavily fortified place in the history of warfare. Because it is fortified not only in the physical sense with its huge underground system of tunnels, it is also fortified by "Human Rights" NGOs, by the New York Times, by international tribunals, and by the general moral failure of the West to protect its own values. It is for this reason that Israel must win this war and establish for the future, that Barbarism cannot succeed in defeating the West by using the West's institutions against it.

Israel reservists were detained for questioning after a Hamas terrorist arrived in an Israeli hospital with physical signs of abuse. But this was not a routine arrest. Army police behaved towards IDF reservists as if this were a raid on a drug cartel – which ignited a riot in which enraged Israelis staged a break-in into two army bases. Mike and Gadi believe this drama encapsulates a much larger conflict which is brewing within Israeli society. Also, in this episode: what are the odds for the slaughter of 12 Druse children by a Hezbollah rocket spiraling into a full scale war? 

Senator Cotton attended Prime Minister Netanyahu's speech, and shared his impressions with us. Iran's proxies, Senator Cotton said, do not threaten only Israel, they "threaten the entire US led international order." We also spoke about Israel's war in Gaza, this strange moment in American politics, the Woke, and finally Jefferson and Madison.

Mike and Gadi have already written Netanyahu's speech in their imagination to their own satisfaction – we'll soon see how well they've guessed. But one thing is not in doubt: Iran will be a major theme. Judging by the prime minister's recent public statements, he is going to describe Israel as standing at the forefront of the West's war against "Iran's axis of evil." This seems like a pretty obvious thing to say in the US, but in the context of the current administration's regional policy – it is anything but. Mike and Gadi explain why. Also: how will substituting Joe Biden for Kamala Harris as the Democratic Party's presidential candidate affect Israel? Bonus: Joe Biden vs. Thomas Sowell https://x.com/GadiTaub1/status/1815265490010292440

  The failed assassination attempt on the former president will have vast consequences for the Middle East, some of which will be felt immediately. Israel, Mike argues, will have a freer hand to fight Hamas. A Trump victory however, with J.D. Vance as VP, will have far vaster effects on the region. Mike and Gadi discuss.  Meanwhile, the incitement against PM Netanyahu crosses the line into a virtual calls for his assassination. Yet Israel's law enforcement seems not to have learned from the American lesson. Plus: a rift between Netanyahu and Gallant re the Philadelphi Corridor looms behind the attempt to reach a hostage deal with Hamas. 

The question is not just about the day after. It is also about the day before the day after: what should count as victory? Some have declared the return of the hostages to be the only meaning of victory and are willing to push for a deal almost at any price. But that means that in the real world, Hamas would be able to declare victory. This will not fly with the Netanyahu coalition. But even within the coalition, and importantly, between the politicians and the IDF brass, there are very different ideas of what this war can and should achieve. Gadi and Mike don't necessarily agree on the issue. 

The American presidential debate was a moment of truth – or lack thereof – for the press. It also has consequences for Israel and the Middle East. Mike and Gadi discuss. This week also saw an Israeli Supreme Court decision ordering the draft of all ultra-orthodox men. The decision is threatening the stability of Netanyahu's coalition. Mike and Gadi explain why this has become such a contested issue, and how religion, nationalism and progressivism define what Left and Right mean in Israel today. Then there is also a uniquely dumb take on the news. Join us and stay updated about Israel and its war.

Netanyahu's video message that called out the US on withholding arms from Israel succeeded – first the administration denied the facts, but then it opened the bureaucratic bottlenecks (see Mike's piece about this below). Few commentators, however, took note of the fact that there was a warning in that video – one which was later enhanced in Netanyahu's two major public statements this week. The war as the prime minister is now defining it, is a seven-front war with Iran. With a speech before a joint session of the two houses of congress scheduled for July 24, the administration must be worried that its Iran appeasement policy is in danger of being exposed. And all that, on the backdrop of the West's inability to fight wokeness, its autoimmune cultural disease. Mike and Gadi discuss the connection.  https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/israel-middle-east/articles/biden-italian-strike-israel-arms-shipments

The repeated attempts of the Biden administration to arrange a color revolution in Israel in order to topple Netanyahu's government are failing – partly because the Israeli "Resistance" is unable to muster more than a few thousand chronic Never-Bibi protestors. Israelis have no patience with people threatening to "paralyze the country" when so many are sending their sons and daughters to risk their lives in Gaza. Also: Gadi and Mike disagreed on whether IDF brass insubordination is becoming a real problem in Israel's ability to win the war.   

A bold rescue operation Nuseirat; Benny Gantz quits the war time coalition; a UN Security Council resolution for a ceasefire and a hostage deal; steep escalation between Hezbollah and Israel in the north, and – if all this is not enough – a looming crisis for the coalition over drafting of ultra-orthodox men to the IDF. Gadi and Mike untangle these strands and conclude that for now Netanyahu's coalition is not on the verge of collapse, despite the Biden administration's best efforts.

President Biden made a dramatic speech on Friday announcing an Israeli offer for a far-reaching hostage deal. Prime Minster Netanyahu's response at first made it seem like Biden was distorting Israel's position beyond recognition. It turned out that the truth behind the move was far more complicated. Mike and Gadi unpack the calculations of the different parties. Also in this episode: the North is burning.

A reservist soldier recorded a video addressing Prime Minister Netanyahu, and telling him that the army is behind him, but also calling on Minister of Security Gallant to resign if he is not determined to win this war, and that if he does not, the army will not follow him. The press filled with outrage against this "sedition." An investigation was promptly launched. Meanwhile, the newly elected leader of the tiny Labor Party, General Yair Golan, called on reservists not to report to duty until the government calls for new elections. 

A whirlwind week in Israeli politics: Ministers Yoav Gallant and Benny Gantz delivered two ultimatums to prime minister Netanyahu, threatening to dissolve the cabinet they are both still members of. Both held independent talks with high American officials prior to the move. Did they coordinate with the Americans, or with each other? Is the government about to be dissolved? And how will international arrest warrants from The Hague, against Netanyahu and Gallant, play out in Israeli politics? Mike and Gadi suggest ways to connect the dots. 

Israel put its faith in building a small, Star Wars style, technological army. But that army was defeated on Oct. 7, by a Mad Max ragtag band of terrorists. Mike and Gadi discuss the failure of the IDF to adapt to this new Mad Max world. But in light of President Biden's threat to withhold weapons, Israel must not only change its military thinking, it also has to reform its war economics if it is to achieve what Mike and Can Kasapoglu call in a new piece in Tablet, "operational sovereignty."  Also in this episode: has Joe Biden taken his anti-Israeli policy one step too far?

The international media – like much of the Never-Bibi Israeli media – told you a story about Hamas greenlighting a hostage deal, only to have their new position met with an Israeli incursion into Rafah. What actually happened is very far from that media tale. The US and Hamas have been negotiating over Israel's head, with the American making promises Israel can't afford to keep. When Prime Minister Netanyahu understood what was going on, he moved to intercept the dangerous move. Here's what happened behind the scenes. Mike and Gadi explain.  Also: what you need to know about how tough politicians conduct policy, and what they can learn from the bouncers in Tel-Aviv's roughest bars. 

The Biden administration is pressing for an end to the war in a hostage deal, while working to topple Benjamin Netanyahu's government. It has many allies and tools in this effort: the threat to sanction an IDF unit, the looming specter of international arrest warrants from the Hague, the Israeli anti-Netanyahu press and, from within the cabinet, an attempt by Benny Gantz to push for accepting a near-surrender hostage deal. At the same time, the right flank of Netanyahu's coalition has issued an ultimatum: should such a deal come to pass they will opt out and topple the coalition. Has Netanyahu reached the end of his rope?

Though Iran's attack was almost wholly intercepted, by the combined Israeli-American efforts, this was no victory over Iran. Mike explains why a defensive strategy can never defeat an offensive dominant one. Then there is also the high cost of the defense systems relative to cheapness and quantity of Iran's drones and missiles. Iran has also collected a great deal of intelligence about the systems it is facing. But above all it successfully changed the rules of the game - and the US has let it do so. It now remains to be seen how Israel will respond.

Last Thursday, President Biden had a very tense conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, demanding among other things, that the Israelis provide more humanitarian aid to Gazan civilians, and take concrete steps to achieve an immediate ceasefire, including by sending an empowered delegation to Cairo to negotiate a hostages-for-prisoners swap with Hamas. Several days later, the Israeli delegation appeared in Cairo to negotiate and, at the same time, the Israel Defense Forces announced the withdrawal of all of their maneuver forces from the Gaza Strip. Many observers speculate that the withdrawal came in response to American pressure. Israeli officials deny that claim, and Netanyahu has promised that an operation to take Rafah will definitely take place — but will it? Mike and Gadi — like everyone else — don't have clear answers to the question, but they have a number of thoughtful considerations about it.